Cubs Acquire Derek Holland, Designate Tim Collins
The Cubs announced today that they have acquired lefty Derek Holland from the Giants. To create roster space, fellow southpaw Tim Collins was designated for assignment.
Holland had recently been designated himself by the San Francisco organization. He was playing on a deal that promises him $6.5MM this year and a $500K buyout on a $7MM club option (which also includes some escalators). Today’s trade, humorously, involves “a cash consideration” heading in both directions. Precisely how the sides have sorted the financials isn’t yet clear, but it seems fair to presume that the Cubs will pick up a small portion of the two-and-a-half million or so remaining on the tab.
The Chicago organization continues to cycle through lefty relievers. When Collins signed his modest, $850K deal, the club dropped Brian Duensing from its 40-man despite a $3.5MM salary. Now, the team will give Holland a look in a relief capacity.
It’s not surprising to see Holland land on his feet despite his struggles this year. The 32-year-old washed out of the San Francisco rotation after seven starts, as he failed to follow up a quality 2018 season. His ability to throw multiple innings as a long man or starter is still of appeal, particularly for a Cubs team that recently parted with Mike Montgomery.
The real appeal here, though, is the possibility of using Holland as a situational reliever. While his overall results were hardly exceptional — 5.03 ERA in 34 innings with 29 strikeouts and 15 walks — Holland has shown a velocity boost in the bullpen. Better still, he’s pummeling opposing left-handed batters, who carry a meager .182/.276/.195 batting line in 89 trips to the plate against him this season. Holland has not only induced lots of poor contact, but has drawn grounders from southpaw hitters on more than three of every four balls they put in play.
As for Collins, the 29-year-old hasn’t been tasked with much of a workload in the majors. His swinging-strike rate has dropped from a promising 11.6% rate last year to just 7.5% in his nine appearances in 2019. He has spent most of the year pitching at Triple-A, where he carries a 4.67 ERA with 12.3 K/9 against 5.3 BB/9 with seven long balls marring his stat line.
Royals Working On Jake Diekman Trade
12:02pm: The Dodgers stood out as the likely “frontrunners” from the start, tweets Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com. However, he adds that the Nationals and Phillies both still have Diekman on their radar.
11:53am: The Royals “could be getting closer” to a trade involving left-handed reliever Jake Diekman, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. Both the Braves and Dodgers have been showing strong interest in the southpaw, he adds.
Diekman, 32, is playing out the season on a one-year, $2.25MM contract, though he’s also owed a $500K buyout on a $5.75MM mutual option that doesn’t seem likely to be exercised (as is the case with virtually all mutual options). That puts the remaining obligation to Diekman around $1.3MM between now and season’s end.
While Diekman’s 4.75 ERA isn’t going to excite most fans, he’s also notched a hefty 13.6 K/9 mark and kept the ball on the ground at a 48-4 percent clip. Left-handed opponents have batted just .213 and slugged .255 against him. As has oft been the case for Diekman throughout his career, though, control has been an issue. He’s averaged five walks per nine innings pitched this season and plunked another eight hitters. As such, Diekman has yielded an overall .213/.362/.255 line to lefties and a .211/.331/.358 line to right-handed hitters.
Diekman is technically controlled beyond the 2019 season, but mutual options are almost never exercised by both parties. Typically, if a player performs well enough to justify that salary, he’s inclined to test the open market. And if a player doesn’t perform up to that standard, the club will of course buy the option out. Perhaps the changing landscape of free agency will make a player such as Diekman — one with limited earning power but who could justify a net $5.25MM decision with a strong finish — more likely to exercise his half of the provision, but there’s limited historic precedent.
Royals Reportedly “Not Inclined” To Pay Down Salary In Trades
As we explored here several months ago, Ian Kennedy has gone from a starter on an albatross contract to a highly intriguing reliever this season, making him a fairly logical trade candidate for the 39-65 Royals. Kansas City is indeed getting interest in not only Kennedy but also left-hander Danny Duffy, as Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (subscription required). Both players are on sizable contracts, however, and Rosenthal adds that Kansas City is “not inclined” to make a deal if it means paying down either veteran’s deal to a more palatable rate. The Royals “value [Kennedy and Duffy] as place-holders until their younger pitchers develop,” per the report.
With regard to Duffy, that’s a rather logical stance to take. He’s a homegrown player who was extended to much fanfare in Kansas City, and while the $15-16MM he’s being paid on an annual basis outstrips his recent production, it’s not an egregious overpay. Signed through the 2021 season, Duffy has at least been a serviceable arm. He owns a 4.32 ERA in 89 1/3 innings and is averaging 8.0 K/9 against 3.2 BB/9 while still carrying the upside of pitching at a higher level.
Trading Duffy, even with an acquiring team taking on all of his money (which is highly unlikely) would be selling low. The lefty was the Royals’ best starter in 2016-17, tossing a combined 326 innings of 3.54 ERA ball with 8.8 K/9, 2.3 BB/9 and 1.1 HR/9. It’s possible that with a strong finish to the 2019 season and/or a strong first half in 2020, Duffy’s value could increase. Paying down his contract and seeing his value increase in the future would be a bitter pill to swallow — particularly because the present-day return in a theoretical trade would be relatively modest.
As pertains to Kennedy, though, it’s a somewhat befuddling mindset. He’s four years older than Duffy, only signed through the end of the 2020 season (at annual rates of $16.5MM) and is pitching more effectively than he has at any point in his Royals tenure. Kennedy is currently sporting a 3.40 ERA, but he’s also recorded a 2.16 FIP and a 3.17 SIERA mark. The right-hander is averaging 11.1 K/9 against 2.1 BB/9 with a career-high 45.5 percent ground-ball rate. Suddenly, in a relief role, Kennedy is missing bats, limiting walks and home runs, and generating grounders all at career-best rates. His value could well be at its apex, and a once-untradeable pitcher now looks like a player who could be moved and return an intriguing prospect or two if the Royals pay him down to market value (or even lower).
Were Kennedy a free agent this offseason, it’s easy to see him commanding a solid salary on a one-year deal or perhaps even a two-year pact. He’s owed $22.4MM from this writing through the end of the 2020 season, and while that’s more than he’d earn in free agency, it’s not outlandish to think he could earn himself $6-7MM annually on the open market. Paying him down to that rate, or even a bit further, could net some minor leaguers to further the club’s rebuild while also saving enough cash to sign a different “placeholder” (or two) in free agency.
If the Royals are eyeing contention in 2020, hats off to them for making an effort in a weak division at a time when so many other clubs are insistent on lengthy rebuilds that inherently come with diminishing returns. (The more clubs that tank, the less effective the benefits of tanking become.) But even if that’s the case, it’s hard to see how retaining Kennedy at $16.5MM for next season meshes with that plan. If the alternative is adding a quasi-interesting prospect or two and saving some money that could be reinvested in the 2020 roster, the Royals should be willing to sell Kennedy at peak value.
Twins, Mets Have Discussed Noah Syndergaard
The Twins and Mets have had discussions surrounding Noah Syndergaard since the Mets have made the right-hander available, reports La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune. Minnesota has been linked to virtually every arm on the trade market — starter and reliever alike — so their inclusion in the Syndergaard bidding hardly comes as a shock. Nor is it surprising that Neal indicates that the Mets have focused in on top prospects Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff as potential headliners in a deal.
Lewis, 20, was the No. 1 overall draft pick in 2017, and the shortstop entered the season ranked as a consensus top 10 prospect in all of baseball. He’s scuffled a bit in his first exposure to Class-A Advanced, hitting .243/.295/.384 through 410 plate appearances. Lewis, though, is still rather young for the Florida State League and is still generally regarded as a premier prospect, even if there’s a bit more of a divide on his status at the moment. Baseball America dipped Lewis to No. 21 on its latest update of the game’s top 100 minor leaguers, while Lewis resides at No. 2 over on Fangraphs’ latest update.
Kirilloff, 21, also entered the season regarded as one of the game’s 20 best prospects. He hasn’t replicated last season’s dominant numbers between Class-A and Class-A Advanced, but the outfielder has turned in a .284/.351/.403 slash in 261 plate appearances against older, more experienced competition with Double-A Pensacola.
The Twins have reportedly been loath to part with either Lewis or Kirilloff — the same has been true of top pitching prospect Brusdar Graterol — although Syndergaard brings a different level of appeal to the table than most other arms known to be available. He’s controlled through the 2021 season (a year longer than Marcus Stroman or Mike Minor), has multiple dominant seasons on his resume (unlike Matthew Boyd), is still in arbitration as opposed to on a guaranteed contract (unlike Zack Greinke) and, despite a lackluster ERA on the season, offers some of the best raw stuff of any pitcher in baseball.
Syndergaard still averages 97.7 mph on his heater with a slider he can throw in the low 90s, and every club in baseball surely has its own ideas about how to restore his bottom-line results to their previous levels, which more closely aligned with his premium arsenal. The Twins, in particular, have added incentive to pursue controllable starters; each of Jake Odorizzi, Kyle Gibson and Michael Pineda are free agents this winter.
Quick Hits: Hamels, Jeimer, A’s, Lucroy, Rays, Brewers
Cubs left-hander Cole Hamels will “likely” return from the injured list Aug. 2 or 3 if he gets through one more rehab start unscathed, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times tweets. Having suffered a left oblique strain June 28, it appears the 35-year-old will end up missing just over a month. The Cubs have tread water without Hamels, going 11-10 since he incurred his injury, which has been enough to stay atop the NL Central. They’re leading the division thanks in no small part to Hamels, who has recorded a 2.98 ERA/3.59 FIP with 8.76 K/9, 3.16 BB/9 and a 51.1 percent groundball rate in 99 2/3 innings.
More from around baseball…
- Tigers third baseman Jeimer Candelario has begun getting reps at first base at the urging of general manager Al Avila and assistant GM David Chadd, Chris McCosky of the Detroit News explains. The decision comes with Triple-A third baseman Dawel Lugo “likely” on his way back to the majors soon, infield prospect Isaac Paredes soaring through the Tigers’ system and right fielder Nicholas Castellanos a strong bet to leave before the trade deadline, McCosky notes. Once Castellanos is out of the picture, the Tigers figure to use at least one of their current first base options – Harold Castro and Brandon Dixon – in right. Candelario has only played one major league game at first, though the 25-year-old has lined up there 35 times in the minors. Regardless of position, this has been a disappointing season for Candelario – who, along with Paredes – joined the Tigers in a trade with the Cubs in July 2017. Candelario was a top 100 prospect who was immediately successful in the majors, but he has batted just .213/.309/.360 (79 wRC+) with seven home runs in 272 plate appearances this year. To his credit, though, Candelario has hit far better since the Tigers demoted him to Toledo on May 15 and then recalled him June 26.
- Athletics southpaw Sean Manaea – out since he underwent shoulder surgery last September – survived a 76-pitch rehab start with Triple-A Las Vegas on Wednesday, per Martin Gallegos of MLB.com. Manaea struggled over 4 1/3 innings, allowing five earned runs and three HRs, but the A’s are encouraged that he remains on track to return to the majors by the second week of August. In the meantime, Manaea’s scheduled for two more Triple-A starts. He’ll progress to 90 pitches in his next outing and then 100 in what should be his final minors start of the year. In further good news for Oakland, outfielder Stephen Piscotty is slated to begin a rehab stint over the weekend. A sprained right MCL has shelved Piscotty since June 30.
- Angels catcher Jonathan Lucroy will start a rehab assignment at the High-A level Friday, Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com relays. The Angels plan to re-evaluate Lucroy after he plays two games. The 33-year-old has been out since he bore the brunt of a brutal home plate collision with Astros outfielder Jake Marisnick on July 7. The league issued Marisnick a two-game suspension for plowing into Lucroy, who suffered a concussion and a broken nose. Lucroy also had to undergo surgery on his nasal fracture.
- Baseball America released its latest organizational talent rankings on Thursday (subscription required). Led by shortstop Wander Franco, whom BA ranks as the game’s best prospect, the Rays check in at No. 1. However, even without Franco, BA contends the Rays would still have baseball’s premier farm system. Beyond Franco, the club boasts eight other top 100 prospects. The Brewers don’t have any, on the other hand, making them the outlet’s last-ranked org. As BA points out, though, superb rookie second baseman Keston Hiura did just graduate from Milwaukee’s system.
Latest On Rays’ Deadline Plans
Already without burgeoning ace Tyler Glasnow since May, the Rays’ rotation was dealt another serious blow Thursday with the news that reigning AL Cy Young winner Blake Snell will undergo elbow surgery. The arthroscopic procedure will keep the left-hander out for at least four weeks, and it could prove to be a fatal shot to Tampa Bay’s postseason hopes. For now, though, the team remains very much in the wild-card hunt. The Rays trail the Athletics by one game for the AL’s final playoff spot, so they’re still hoping to buy before Wednesday’s trade deadline, general manager Erik Neander told Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times after losing Snell.
“The belief we have in this group extends well beyond Blake,’’ Neander said. “As long as they’re able to take care of their business and play to their potential between now and the end of the month, I think we want to do everything we can not to take this season for granted and see if there is a way to help this team in a responsible fashion.’’
Taking care of business has been a struggle of late for the Rays, who have gone 6-8 since the All-Star break. They’ll next head north to face the non-contending Blue Jays three times before trekking to Boston for a crucial series that coincides with the deadline.
Should the Rays play well enough against their two division rivals to convince management to add pieces, the rotation is one obvious place the team could upgrade. Even before Snell went down, the Rays were connected to Tigers left-hander Matthew Boyd and Mets righty Zack Wheeler in the rumor mill (links here). However, they’re not particularly likely to address their starting staff from outside, according to Topkin. If they don’t, Topkin writes that the Rays figure to ride it out with two traditional rotation arms – current Cy Young candidate Charlie Morton and Yonny Chirinos – with Brendan McKay probably returning from the minors in August and openers set to make the other starts.
Elsewhere, the Rays have reportedly shown interest in a few right-handed hitters (the Rangers’ Hunter Pence, the Tigers’ Nicholas Castellanos and the Brewers’ Jesus Aguilar) and several relievers. Perhaps they’ll acquire someone from that group, but regardless, it’s clear the Rays are going to take a judicious approach over the next few days. The club’s sitting what’s likely an insurmountable 9 1/2 games behind the AL East-leading Yankees, meaning it’s vying just for the right to participate in a one-game playoff. Earning one of those two spots would have been a significant challenge with Snell around for the rest of the year. The task now looks much more difficult, but with Tampa Bay still in striking distance, it’s not ready to wave the white flag.
Ender Inciarte Hopes To Stay With Braves
Braves outfielder Ender Inciarte is facing an uncertain future as the trade deadline approaches, having struggled this season and lost his place as a regular in the club’s lineup. Despite his downturn in playing time, Inciarte told Jeff Schultz of The Athletic (subscription link) that he has no desire to leave the Braves.
“I haven’t heard if I’m going to get traded or not,” said Inciarte, who added: “If you ask me, would I rather be somewhere else, the answer is I’d rather not. I love Atlanta. There’s not any other uniform I’d like to wear.”
Rookie Austin Riley swiped Inciarte’s starting role after the veteran went to the injured list with a lumbar strain May 15. Inciarte returned a week ago after a two-month absence, but he has only collected 10 plate appearances since then. The Braves have typically deployed an outfield consisting of Riley in left, Ronald Acuna Jr. in center (Inciarte’s usual position) and Nick Markakis in right since Inciarte went down.
The Braves’ new outfield (mostly Acuna) has notched good production, though Riley’s numbers have tanked since a sizzling start. In the aggregate, though, Riley’s .246/.298/.504 line with 16 home runs in 242 PA far outpaces the .205/.293/.303 slash and two HRs Inciarte has put up across 150 PA. Moreover, the 28-year-old Inciarte owns the majors’ second-lowest average exit velocity (78.3 mph), per Statcast, which doesn’t show much of a gap between his paltry .262 weighted on-base average and his .271 expected wOBA. Needless to say, those numbers don’t bode well for a turnaround.
It’s true that Inciarte has never been an offensive force, but he was almost a league-average hitter with the Diamondbacks and Braves from 2014-18. Combining that with stellar defense and quality base running was enough to make Inciarte a solid starter prior to this season, and it helped convince the Braves to ink him to a five-year, $30.525MM extension in advance of the 2017 campaign. Thanks to that deal, Inciarte’s playing this year on a $5MM salary and will earn a combined $15MM over the next two seasons ($7MM in 2020, $8MM in ’21). Not long ago, those looked like bargain figures for Inciarte, but his disastrous 2019 – along with lessening his importance to the Braves – has surely done a number on his trade value.
Has This Really Been A Slow Trade Deadline?
YES. That wasn’t hard. We hear complaints most every summer about a lack of action, but this time they’re legit. But just what kind of a lull are we talking about? How slow has it been?
[RELATED: A Buyer’s Guide To Stashing Depth At The Trade Deadline]
Teams have been quite miserly with swaps in the run-up to the 2019 deadline — a fact that’s all the more notable given the lack of an August trade period. We have seen Edwin Encarnacion and Jay Bruce move on from the Mariners — Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto is doing his part, even if his peers are still napping — but otherwise the chief deals have involved Andrew Cashner, Homer Bailey, and Martin Maldonado. Each of those players obviously has had success in the majors, but it’s fair to say that none is at anything close to his peak value.
Well, if we aren’t getting any juicy new deals this year, then we’ll just re-live deadlines past. As shown below, we’ve seen some rather significant swaps in the run-ups to each trade deadline over the past five years. Only the 2015 trade period rivals this year’s for a lack of scenery at this stage of the proceedings. There were ultimately some huge trades that year, but virtually all of them occurred between the early period and deadline day itself, which was rather quiet apart from one notable swap that has ultimately had a massive impact on the Mets organization.
[To help you on your trip down memory lane, I’ve included some useful links. The relevant year includes our full database entries from the start of June through to July 25th in each season. If you click the names of the headlining veteran player(s), you’ll go straight to our post for the relevant swap. Trades are ordered from most recent to earliest. We’re looking specifically at deals involving players that were seen as significant pieces for contenders at the time they were swapped, not just interesting trades. Thus, no further discussion of Marco Gonzales, Chris Taylor, and others that happened to be dealt in a deadline run-up.]
Nate Eovaldi; Zach Britton; Jeurys Familia; Brad Hand; Manny Machado; Kelvin Herrera
Anthony Swarzak; Eduardo Nunez; Trevor Cahill; Jaime Garcia; Sergio Romo; David Phelps; David Robertson/Todd Frazier/Tommy Kahnle; J.D. Martinez; Sean Doolittle/Ryan Madson; Jose Quintana
Aroldis Chapman; Mike Montgomery; Drew Pomeranz; Brad Ziegler; Bud Norris; Kelly Johnson; James Shields
Kelly Johnson/Juan Uribe; Steve Cishek; Scott Kazmir; Alejandro De Aza; Mark Trumbo
Kendrys Morales; Joakim Soria; Chase Headley; Huston Street; Brandon McCarthy; Jeff Samardzija/Jason Hammel; Jason Grilli/Ernesto Frieri
Latest On Felix Hernandez
A right shoulder issue has prevented former Mariners superstar Felix Hernandez from taking the ball in the majors since May 11. As a result, the 33-year-old pending free agent isn’t a sure bet to suit up for the Mariners again, though he’s still holding out hope for a 2019 return, Greg Johns of MLB.com relays. Hernandez threw a 22-pitch live batting practice session Thursday and could begin a rehab assignment Sunday, but manager Scott Servais isn’t sure if he has progressed to that point, according to Johns.
If Hernandez does make it back to Seattle this year, the 2010 AL Cy Young winner and six-time All-Star realizes he’ll be auditioning just to land a 2020 opportunity somewhere.
“I need it,” Hernandez told Johns. “If I want to play next year, I need to go out there and pitch. I have to go out and compete. I’ve been thinking about next year, for sure. That’s why I need to go out there and show them I can pitch.”
A lack of availability was never a problem earlier in the career of Hernandez, who fired 190-plus innings each year from 2006 – his first full season – through 2015. Hernandez exceeded the 200-frame mark eight times during that span (every season from 2008-15) and combined for a sterling 3.13 ERA/3.21 FIP with 8.53 K/9, 2.51 BB/9 and 50.4 fWAR over 2,178 innings. Hernandez looked like a potential Hall of Famer then, which convinced the Mariners to sign him to a seven-year, $175MM extension shortly before the 2013 season began. Unfortunately for Seattle, it hasn’t gotten great overall value out of its massive commitment to the franchise icon, who has faced injuries and a significant drop in performance over the past few seasons.
Hernandez declined into something akin to a back-end starter from 2016-17, a span in which he totaled 239 2/3 innings, and has statistically been one of the least effective rotation pieces in baseball since last season. Dating back to then, Hernandez has tossed 194 1/3 innings of 5.74 ERA/5.23 FIP ball. Although he has mustered playable strikeout, walk and groundball rates (7.36 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 47.5 GB%), Hernandez ranks last in ERA and FIP among 102 starters who have accumulated 180 or more innings over the past year-plus.
Considering his recent, injury-aided fall from grace, Hernandez certainly isn’t on the brink of a lucrative trip to free agency (a guaranteed contract isn’t even a sure thing). However, it’s fair to say most baseball fans – especially those in Seattle – would like to see King Felix return this season and potentially end his tremendous Mariners tenure on a high note.
Twins Interested In Daniel Hudson
The Twins have already been connected to Toronto closer and prime trade chip Ken Giles, but they’re also interested in one of the Blue Jays’ less exciting relievers. Right-hander Daniel Hudson is on the Twins’ radar, Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweets. They’re one of multiple teams eyeing the hard-throwing Hudson.
Unlike Giles, who’s under control through 2020, Hudson would be a rental for an acquiring team. He joined the Blue Jays for a guaranteed $1.5MM right before the season began. The well-traveled 32-year-old has since pitched to an excellent 2.80 ERA in 45 innings, though his 4.31 FIP, 4.57 SIERA, 5.36 xFIP and 9.8 percent swinging-strike rate – his lowest since 2012 – don’t inspire close to as much confidence. Along with those numbers, Hudson has logged 8.8 K/9, 4.2 BB/9, a 40.7 percent groundball rate and a 12.3 percent infield fly rate. Hudson’s above-average ability to induce pop-ups has helped him limit home runs, as he has surrendered just one per nine innings.
Homers also haven’t been a major problem this year for Twins relievers, who have yielded 1.25 per nine (good for 12th in the league). However, despite the Twins’ AL Central-leading 61-40 record, their bullpen has been something of a sore spot this year. That’s evidenced in part by the fact that the club has moved on from four relievers – Mike Morin, Matt Magill, Adalberto Mejia and Blake Parker – since last week. That quartet combined for just over 100 innings out of Minnesota’s bullpen this season.
As for the relievers the Twins have on hand right now, only Taylor Rogers and Ryne Harper have truly thrived over a full season of work. Trevor May and Tyler Duffey have struck out upward of 10 batters per nine apiece, but the former has battled control issues and the latter has been susceptible to homers.