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Market Chatter: Indians, Moose, Cano, Diaz, Thor, Pads

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The Indians’ rotation has come up in trade rumors over the past month, as Cleveland looks to manage a roster with multiple holes and a crowded payroll that is already at franchise-record levels. However, while Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco have been speculative candidates to be moved, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets that teams who’ve spoken to the Indians get the sense that Cleveland is more amenable to trading right-hander Trevor Bauer. Kluber is controlled through 2021, while Carrasco is locked into a club-friendly deal through the 2020 season. Bauer, though, is arbitration-eligible for another two seasons. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him to earn $11.6MM in 2019 — a projection he explored at greater length earlier today. If the Indians are to move a starter, there’s some sense behind making it the one of their “big three” who has the shortest amount of team control and least cost certainty, though there’s still no indication that the team is aggressively shopping any of its starters. The ask on Bauer would figure to be huge — likely including pre-arbitration, MLB-ready help — given Bauer’s 2.21 ERA, 11.3 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 0.46 HR/9 and 44.5 percent grounder rate in 175 1/3 innings in 2018.

Some more notes on the trade and free-agent markets…

  • Mike Moustakas is “on the radar” for the Cardinals as they look for a corner infield bat, tweets Fancred’s Jon Heyman. While Cards didn’t show much in the way of interest last winter, the absence of draft-pick compensation being attached to Moustakas is an important distinction that has them at least exploring the possibility this time around. Meanwhile, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets that the Cards “made a competitive bid” for Josh Donaldson before the 32-year-old signed a one-year, $23MM contract with the Braves. There were similar reports about the Cardinals’ efforts to sign Jason Heyward and David Price, and the Cardinals also came up shy in their pursuit of Giancarlo Stanton last year when the slugger wouldn’t waive his no-trade protection to approve a deal to St. Louis. Of course, Moustakas is not likely to generate the level of market interest that those players did.
  • There has been quite a lot of chatter regarding Mariners infielder Robinson Cano since it emerged recently that the club would like to find a way to dump his contract, though it’s far from evident whether there’s a particularly realistic match to be found. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand says that some feel the M’s will find a taker, though he later added that Cano hasn’t yet been approached by the team about waiving his no-trade rights or about giving a list of destinations as to which he’d be amenable. (Twitter links.) One key factor in the Cano situation is the notion of the Mariners dealing star closer Edwin Diaz as a means of offloading the money owed Cano. There is indeed some willingness to do so on the part of the Seattle organization, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post. But it seems clubs with interest in Diaz aren’t necessarily amenable to taking on enough of the $120MM still owed to Cano to make it work. Sherman lists the Mets, Yankees, Braves, Phillies, and Red Sox as teams angling for Diaz, not all of which have any inclination to pick up Cano. That’s not surprising, as it’s an awfully steep dollar amount, even though the long-time star second baseman does still have value himself on the ballfield. That said, Diaz arguably could command something approaching that whopping sum in a hypothetical open-market scenario. After all, he stands out against any other potentially available relievers this winter for his excellence, age, and control. That makes this general structure at least somewhat plausible, though it’ll surely be quite complicated to pull something off.
  • It seems the Mets have quite a few balls in the air at the moment as new GM Brodie Van Wagenen searches for a significant deal that will help jumpstart the franchise. Jon Heyman of Fancred (Twitter link) and Mike Puma of the New York Post (via Twitter) each doused the flames of speculation involving the Mets as a possible match in a Cano swap. But that doesn’t mean the team didn’t explore the subject with the Mariners. SNY.tv’s Andy Martino suggested some possible scenarios involving Cano, though really the basic framework does not seem workable from the Seattle side. Martino says the clubs have batted around a concept in which Seattle would both pay about $50MM of Cano’s salary and take on more in return, such as through Jay Bruce’s $26MM contract, while sending Diaz or Mitch Haniger to New York. Trouble is, the implication there is that the Mets could buy one of those excellent young players for less than $50MM, which doesn’t seem like sufficient salary relief for the Mariners to justify the loss of such core talent.
  • Meanwhile, the biggest name seemingly in play on the Mets’ side is Noah Syndergaard, the uber-talented but health-questionable young righty. The Padres have made clear they won’t part with top prospect Fernando Tatis Jr., per Martino, which dovetails with expectations. While the report indicates that the teams have also discussed San Diego backstop Austin Hedges, he certainly does not profile as a centerpiece in a deal for Syndergaard. Meanwhile, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription links) suggests the Rockies could be an under-the-radar suitor for Syndergaard, who’d turn their rotation into a potentially outstanding unit. Though the offense is surely the priority in Colorado, that can be addressed through relatively low-cost investments; adding Thor, meanwhile, is surely an intriguing thought.

Giants “Willing To Engage” In Talks On Madison Bumgarner

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The Giants are “willing to engage” with rival organizations on trade scenarios involving star lefty Madison Bumgarner, according to a report from Jon Morosi of MLB.com. It’s not yet clear just how likely it is that the San Francisco organization will actually move one of its best-loved and most-accomplished players.

Bumgarner is a living baseball legend, owing less to his years of excellent regular-season service than to his incredible postseason feats. The version of the burly southpaw that owned the 2014 World Series will live on no matter the course of the remainder of his career. But after the two seasons he just endured, with a shoulder injury seeming to sap his strength, it’s at best questionable whether the Giants’ staff ace can still deliver a vintage performance.

While front office opinions on the matter no doubt vary, numerous teams figure at least to check in on the lefty. Three, at a minimum, have done so already, according to Morosi. The Brewers and Phillies “have had at least preliminary dialogue,” he writes, while the Braves “checked in” but do not appear to be engaged at the moment.

It’s said that newly installed Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi is angling for young pitching in a deal, but it’s fair to wonder whether he’ll be able to get any top-flight arms. After all, the upside here is limited by the fact that Bumgarner is one season away from free agency. His $12MM contract is plenty reasonable despite the questions, and the possibility of a qualifying offer (or even an extension) hold out hope for some future value. But the unanswered questions create significant downside, even on a single-season commitment.

At base, acquiring Bumgarner would mean buying a pitcher who has been a solid, not terribly durable performer over the past two seasons. He certainly did what he could to make it back from a shocking early-2017 dirt bike accident, and has somehow maintained a 3.29 ERA since the start of that ill-fated campaign, but it’s hard to look past the warning signs.

Before the injury, the now-29-year-old hurler had been good for about a strikeout per inning with two or fewer walks per nine innings, and a total of 200+ frames per season. He had run up four-straight sub-4.00 ERA campaigns, with peripherals that largely matched, all before his near-unimaginable playoff heroics. At his best, Bumgarner drew swings and misses at more than an 11 percent clip while allowing hard contact on less than a third of the balls put in play against him.

Operating at less than full capacity last year, Bumgarner’s swinging-strike rate fell to 9.2% and his K%-BB% dropped to 12.0%. (He had once sat at over a 10 percent K%-BB% for three-straight seasons.) And his hard-hit rate ballooned to 41.6% (per Fangraphs) — a massive rise for a pitcher who has averaged below 30 percent for his career.

The physical changes certainly appear to have had a role. While he was never a flamethrower, Bumgarner averaged as much as 93 mph with his fastball. It has now been three seasons since his heater average heater topped 92 mph. As the effectiveness of that table-setting offering declined, he increasingly went away from the four-seamer in 2018, throwing it just 34.2% of the time — well shy of his 45.6% career average. While the remainder of his arsenal was still effective, the heater had been the bread to his cutter’s butter.

Whether Bumgarner can regain some of the lost velocity, or find a way to make up for it, remains to be seen. There’s still reason to believe he’ll be at least a useful starting pitcher regardless, if for no other reasons than because of his undeniable competitive fire and remaining youth. While he gutted out the results last year, his 3.99 FIP, 4.32 xFIP, and 4.42 SIERA tell a different story — though it’s not a tale of an irredeemably lost pitcher. Even if he can’t regain much of his former luster, Bumgarner will bring the promise of some solid innings, at least so long as he’s able to remain healthy.

Of course, the allure of the Bumgarner of yore will no doubt play some role in negotiations. Clubs such as those rumored to have interest aren’t looking only for a useful, back-of-the-rotation piece. They all have designs on the postseason, and no doubt at least entertain dreams of Bumgarner not only helping to get there, but also rising to the occasion when the moment calls for it.

Perhaps, too, some teams’ scouts and analysts have sussed out some reasons to believe in a turnaround. It’s fair to guess that Zaidi is about as well-versed on the subject as anyone. His former club, the Dodgers, no doubt analyzed Bumgarner closely as a division rival. And he’s now privy to all that the Giants know about their own leading pitcher. Whether Bumgarner is dealt, and what he draws in return, will also tell us quite a bit about the San Francisco organization’s views — on the southpaw as well as the rest of the roster. After all, the club has the financial means to hold on to Bumgarner, whether to maintain fan interest and boost his value for the summer trade deadline or to pursue another extension.

The broader market is certainly a factor as well. Zaidi can only market one season of Bumgarner, but in some regards that’s a positive. There are plenty of intriguing lefty starters available in free agency — most notably, Patrick Corbin, Dallas Keuchel, J.A. Happ, and Yusei Kikuchi — but all figure to command significant guarantees over multiple seasons. Giving up some young talent, rather than taking on potentially damaging long-term contract commitments, will surely hold appeal. Of course, it’s also true that the presence of so many alternatives — remember that James Paxton (via trade) and CC Sabathia went off the board already, and there are other talented starters available in trade free agency — will tend to reduce demand.

All said, it’s far from clear that there’ll be sufficient interest to force Zaidi’s hand. But the mere fact that there’s a possibility of a pre-season swap is itself notable, especially given Bumgarner’s special status in franchise lore. It’ll certainly be interesting to see how this situation plays out.

Latest On Paul Goldschmidt, Zack Greinke

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The Phillies and Diamondbacks had recent talks about a trade centered around Paul Goldschmidt, tweets Jayson Stark of The Athletic, but talks crumbled when the Phils tried to include Carlos Santana in the deal. Right-hander Zach Eflin was one of multiple younger players discussed as part of a potential return for Arizona, per Stark.

It’s somewhat of a surprise to see the Phils linked to Goldschmidt. A significant driving factor behind Philadelphia’s effort to move Santana, after all, is to open at-bats for Rhys Hoskins to return to first base. Acquiring Goldschmidt would likely mean that Hoskins would remain in left field, where he ranked as one of the game’s worst defenders at any position. Then again, the Phillies are known to be casting a wide net in an effort to improve at virtually any area of the roster, and plugging Goldschmidt in at first base would make for an immensely improved lineup, even if it meant another year of Hoskins in left field.

Goldschmidt, 31, enjoyed yet another brilliant season in 2018, hitting .290/.389/.533 with 33 home runs, 35 doubles and five triples. Perennially one of the game’s premier bats, Goldschmidt is owed $14.5MM in 2019 before he’ll reach the open market and become a free agent for the first time in his career next winter. That lack of club control, the presumably enormous cost of an extension and a crowded Diamondbacks payroll have all combined to create the possibility that Arizona moves the face of its franchise this winter.

Turning to another potential suitor, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that the Cards have talked to the D-backs about a trade for Goldschimdt. As Goold explores in great detail, the slugger checks several boxes — the Cards prefer to trade for a bat rather than sign one and are especially interested in corner infielders — but there are question marks as well. He’d only add to a deluge of right-handed bats in the St. Louis lineup, for example, and there is of course no guarantee he’d be willing to sign an extension — something the Cards would be likely to pursue.

While Goldschmidt is the best player the D-backs could move this winter, he’s hardly the only high-profile candidate to change hands. Zack Greinke, too, has emerged as a potential trade candidate, though circumstances surrounding the two are quite different. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets that while the D-backs want young players or prospects back in any Goldschmidt deal — hence the mention of Eflin in Stark’s report — the primary motivation in trading Greinke would be to escape the burden of the three years and $104.5MM remaining on his contract (which includes his annual salaries and a trio of $3MM payouts as part of an $18MM signing bonus that was spread out evenly over the duration of the contract). Greinke’s six-year, $206.5MM contract is the largest ever in terms of average annual value and was signed by the previous front-office regime in Arizona. At 35 years of age, the right-hander is still a highly effective pitcher, but it’s understandable that as payroll has risen beyond the organization’s comfort level, the new-look front office is hoping to unload some of that financial burden.

It’s natural to suggest that the D-backs could try to kill two birds with one stone by trading Goldschmidt and Greinke in one franchise-altering blockbuster. Attaching a player of Goldschmidt’s caliber to Greinke’s contract would hold appeal for an acquiring team, but The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported this morning (subscription required) that the D-backs aren’t interested in watering down a return on Goldschmidt by packaging him with Greinke. Rosenthal, in fact, notes that Cardinals already had internal discussions about attempting a trade to acquire both, but they’re cognizant of the fact that they’re on Greinke’s 15-team no-trade list. Goold tweets that the Cardinals’ inclusion on Greinke’s no-trade list is tied to geographic preferences.

It should be pointed out, too, that while Greinke’s contract is somewhat onerous, it’s not the albatross that many might think. The veteran righty has topped 200 innings in consecutive seasons with virtually identical ERAs of 3.20 and 3.21 to go along with above-average strikeout rates, elite control and solid ground-ball tendencies. Were he a free agent, Greinke would still command significant interest on a multi-year deal and would likely be regarded alongside the likes of Dallas Keuchel as perhaps the second or third-best arm available.

He likely wouldn’t top $100MM in total guarantees, but there’s a very real argument that Greinke command $20MM+ annually on a three-year deal — as Jake Arrieta did last winter. Arrieta, of course, was a three years younger at the time than Greinke is now, but he was also coming off a worse season. And given the fact that the soon-to-be 39-year-old Rich Hill is entering the third season of a three-year free-agent contract, there’s recent precedent of a pitcher in his mid-to-late 30s securing a three-year guarantee. The exact valuation of Greinke will vary from team to team, but his contract may “only” an overpay of around $30-35MM relative to what he could realistically seek on the open market.

Offseason Outlook: Philadelphia Phillies

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here to read the other entries in this series.

A very busy winter is on the horizon for the Phillies, as they are poised to explore all options on the free agent and trade fronts in order to firmly return to contention in 2019.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Jake Arrieta, SP: $45MM through 2020 (Arrieta can opt out after 2019 season, but Phillies can void the opt-out by exercising a two-year/$40MM club option for 2021-22)
  • Carlos Santana, 1B: $35MM through 2020 (includes $500K buyout of $17.5MM club option for 2021)
  • Odubel Herrera, CF: $24.5MM through 2021 (includes $2.5MM buyout of $11.5MM club option for 2022; Phillies also have a $12.5MM club option for 2023 with a $1MM buyout)
  • Scott Kingery, IF/OF: $21.75MM through 2023 (includes $1MM buyout of $13MM club option for 2024; Phillies also have club options for 2025-26)
  • Tommy Hunter, RP: $9MM through 2019
  • Pat Neshek, RP: $6.5MM through 2019 (includes $750K buyout of $7MM club option for 2020)

Arbitration Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

[Phillies Organizational Depth Chart | Phillies Payroll Overview]

The 2018-19 offseason has long been seen as a natural endpoint for the Phillies’ rebuilding process.  The team’s plan was to have a young core of talent in place by 2018, so the Phils could then spend freely within what was expected to be the most star-studded free agent class in history.  As it turned out, this winter’s free agent crop isn’t quite as historically great as it appeared even a year ago, and the Phillies haven’t quite established their foundation.  The Phils seemed to be taking that step forward when they occupied first place in the NL East as late as August 12, before a late-season collapse (going 12-28 over their last 40 games) doomed the team to an 80-82 record and its seventh straight non-winning season.

With this in mind, a couple of big acquisitions wouldn’t necessarily be the finishing touches on an up-and-coming team.  GM Matt Klentak could be considering a much more substantial overhaul of his roster, especially since Aaron Nola and Rhys Hoskins reportedly might be the only two truly untouchable players on the roster.  (I’d expect the team to discuss contract extensions with both Nola and Hoskins come Spring Training.)  With this in mind, it’s difficult to specifically predict what the Phillies might have in store this offseason since just about anything is on the table, and the team is already casting a wide net in exploring free agent and trade possibilities.

Sign Bryce Harper or Manny Machado as the new face of the franchise?  Many pundits think it could happen (as do MLBTR’s readers).  Sign Craig Kimbrel to anchor the ninth inning and turn promising youngster Seranthony Dominguez into a multi-inning weapon?  Wouldn’t be surprising.  Sign one of Patrick Corbin, Nathan Eovaldi, J.A. Happ, or Yusei Kikuchi to join Nola and Jake Arrieta atop the rotation?  Also plausible, as Philadelphia has been linked to all four of those free agent arms on the rumor mill.  Turning to trade candidates, the Phils have reportedly already checked in with the Mariners about shortstop Jean Segura and closer Edwin Diaz, and it’s fair to assume that Klentak will make calls about just about every big name that could be available.

Whatever direction Klentak decides to pursue, he certainly doesn’t have to worry about financial limitations.  Team owner John Middleton has openly promised that the Phillies will be big spenders this winter, and they could “maybe even be a little bit stupid about” how much they hand out in future commitments.  MLBTR’s Rob Huff projected that Philadelphia might have as much as $62.25MM in payroll capacity this winter, and even that estimate might be low if the team decides to truly explode into luxury tax territory ($206MM is the new tax threshold) or if the Phils can open up more payroll space by unloading some of their current players.

The most prominent name in this regard is Carlos Santana, owed $35MM over the next two seasons.  Santana was signed just last winter by the Phillies, and while he provided above-average (109 wRC+) production in 2018, he is already being shopped since Hoskins’ left field defense was so dismal that the team wants to re-install the young slugger at first base.  In a recent examination of Santana’s trade market, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes observed that the presence of other available first basemen (i.e. Paul Goldschmidt, Justin Smoak) or DH types (namely Nelson Cruz) in free agency or the trade market could make it hard for the Phillies to find a suitor for Santana.

If Santana’s contract can’t be moved entirely, perhaps the Phillies could try to deal the first baseman for another high-salaried player who is an imperfect fit on his current roster.  Speculatively speaking, a player like Ian Desmond could be a match, since the Rockies need stability at first base and Desmond can be installed into Philadelphia’s outfield (plus, Desmond gives manager Gabe Kapler a multi-positional option).  Desmond has been a negative-fWAR player over his two years in Colorado, so I’d expect any such scenario to involve multiple players to make things palatable for both sides. And that, of course, is but one of myriad scenarios the Philadelphia front office could entertain.

The Phillies have pieces to offer in just about any trade scenario one can imagine, and if everyone but Hoskins and Nola is available at the right price, it’s anyone’s guess as to who on the current MLB roster will make it to Opening Day.  At this time last year, Odubel Herrera, Cesar Hernandez, Aaron Altherr, and Nick Williams were all coming off strong 2017 performances and looked like possible long-term assets, yet all four took steps backwards last season and may no longer be part of Philadelphia’s future plans.

Of that quartet, Hernandez at least still produced solid OBP numbers, and likely still has the most trade value given how much interest he drew last offseason.  Hernandez is projected for an $8.9MM arbitration salary in 2019 and is controlled through 2020, so the Phillies have to determine if they still like Hernandez at that value or feel they can do better.  Trading Hernandez now would be something of a sell-low case, though he might still be more attractive than other second base options for teams needing there.  The Phillies themselves would be in the market for a new second baseman if they dealt Hernandez, as while the position could eventually have Scott Kingery’s name on it, he didn’t do enough in his rookie season to prove himself worthy of an everyday job.  A short-term veteran in the mold of a Jed Lowrie or Asdrubal Cabrera could be pursued if the Phillies still see Kingery as the long-term answer at second base.

While many of the Phillies’ youngsters disappointed last year, it’s a little ironic that Maikel Franco is reportedly one of the likelier pieces to be traded when he’s the one who actually hit well (.270/.314/.467 in 465 PA, 22 homers, 106 OPS+, 105 wRC+) in 2018, rebounding after a couple of lackluster seasons.  Assuming a Franco deal takes place, Kingery could also be an option at third base, though it seems likely that Phillies have a bigger target in mind for the left field of their infield.

Machado has been linked to Philadelphia for months, as the team is one of the few that can reasonably afford the record contract he is likely to receive in free agency, and the Phillies have such clear needs at both third base and shortstop.  No team received less from its shortstops (-1.8 bWAR) than the Phillies in 2018, and with Kingery an imperfect defensive fit and top prospect J.P. Crawford yet to break out in limited MLB action, signing Machado would immediately turn the shortstop position from a minus to a big plus.  Machado’s defensive prowess as a shortstop improved considerably after going from the Orioles to the Dodgers, so signing with another analytically-inclined team like the Phillies could allay concerns about his glovework.

If Machado prefers to remain at shortstop, the Phillies could retain Franco for third base, give Kingery a longer look, or perhaps acquire another third baseman (e.g. Josh Donaldson, Mike Moustakas).  If Machado is indeed open to moving back to the hot corner, the Phils could address shortstop in the form of another proven star like Segura, or a multi-position player like Marwin Gonzalez would provide even more roster flexibility for Kapler.

Let’s move from Machado to Harper, who is also an easy fit for the Phillies, given their shaky outfield.  Harper would immediately solidify right field, leaving the team to juggle Williams, Altherr (if is tendered a contract), and Roman Quinn in left field — that is, if the Phillies didn’t turn those players into bench depth by acquiring an established everyday left fielder.  Harper will likely command an even larger contract than Machado, whose infamous “Johnny Hustle” comments and the accusations of dirty play directed towards him during the postseason did little to help his free-agent stock.  Harper has also had his share of controversy in his young career, though his injury history is surely the bigger factor for any team considering giving him the largest contract of all time.

Signing more than one of the free agents who rejected a qualifying offer (Harper, Corbin, Kimbrel, Yasmani Grandal, Dallas Keuchel, A.J. Pollock) would cost the Phillies multiple draft picks and significant chunks of their international signing bonus pool funds.  It isn’t yet known if the Phillies would take such a player development hit for a second consecutive offseason, or if the team would prefer to spend its dollars on players who aren’t tied to compensation.

If Harper signs elsewhere, Michael Brantley, Andrew McCutchen, Marwin Gonzalez, David Peralta, or Wil Myers stand out as some of the higher-profile corner outfield options that could be signed or acquired in trades.  The Tigers’ Nick Castellanos is an unlikelier choice for a Phillies team looking to upgrade its defense.  The Phils ranked last among all teams in both Defensive Runs Saved (-146) and UZR/150 (-8.0) last season, and while moving Hoskins out of left field will by itself represent an improvement, the Phillies will be prioritizing better defense in 2019.  To that end, Harper’s own defensive ratings were poor in 2018, though agent Scott Boras is aiming to chalk that up to residual effects from Harper’s leg injury late in the 2017 season.

Center field could also be a target area for this reason, as Herrera’s glove dropped off considerably (as per Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric, as well as UZR/150 and DRS) and his offense declined for the third straight year.  Kapler hinted that conditioning could have been an issue for Herrera, and the outfielder also saw more time in right field than in center over the latter weeks of the season.

While the Phillies acquired Wilson Ramos for the pennant race, another big splash at catcher is dependent on their long-term view of Jorge Alfaro.  The 25-year-old’s contact skills and pitch-blocking are still a work in progress, making some kind of addition seem likely.  The Phils could sign a veteran backstop to a one-year deal to split time with Alfaro and act as a mentor, but the catching market has a few alternatives if they prefer a higher-profile add.

As much as the Phillies have already looked into Corbin and other top free agent hurlers, the club is likely to limit itself to just one starting pitching addition, since it already has a pretty solid core group of Nola, Arrieta, Nick Pivetta, Vince Velasquez, and Zach Eflin.  As one might expect given the Phillies’ poor defense, the gap between the rotation’s collective ERA (4.12) and FIP (3.76) was the third-largest of any team in baseball, meaning the starters pitched better than their already-decent numbers indicated.  Still, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Pivetta, Velasquez, or Eflin shifted into a long relief or swingman role to make room for another starter, particularly given Kapler’s penchant for going to his bullpen.

Trade possibilities also can’t be ruled out if the Phillies believe they fetch a good price for their younger arms, or if Arrieta ends up being the big salary moved to create more payroll space.  Arrieta posted his lowest swinging-strike and K/9 totals in five years, his overall numbers dropped over the last two months of the season, and he generally continued to look more like the solid veteran workhorse he was in 2017 than his old ace form for the 2015 Cubs.  I’d find it unlikely that Arrieta is dealt just because the Phils could use some stability and experience within what is still a pretty young rotation, and because even the 2018 version of Arrieta going forward still provides value, if maybe not quite at the $45MM remaining cost of his contract.

Pat Neshek and Tommy Hunter have also had their names mentioned in trade rumblings less than a year after signing with the Phillies, as both have significant price tag owed to them in 2019.  Keeping both in the fold wouldn’t be a bad result given that Neshek and Hunter both pitched well last season, and the Phillies could decide to mostly stand pat with their bullpen unless they believe an established closer is needed.  Kimbrel, David Robertson (who could favor teams in the Northeast), and Zach Britton could meet this need in free agency, and it’s worth mentioning that Philadelphia had interest in Britton prior to the trade deadline.

After all of these words about the big moves the Phillies could make, let’s also issue some words of caution.  Since Middleton has gone on record about the team’s planned expenditures, I don’t dare suggest that the Phillies won’t be major players this offseason.  However, Middleton also added this note in his remarks to USA Today: “as Andy [MacPhail, Phillies president] likes to tell me, ’John, we are playing baseball after 2019, so, you can’t spend every last dime after this year.’ You got to have something in the tank for future years.”  The Phils will certainly make at least a couple of big and expensive acquisitions, though they don’t need to go overboard to be a better team next season.  A lot of improvement could come from within, if Alfaro and/or Kingery break out, or if Herrera or Hernandez bounce back, or (perhaps chiefly) if the Phillies simply improve their defense from league-worst status.

A big part of the team’s winter business will be centered around Klentak deciding what he exactly has in his current roster pieces, and beginning the process of shipping out players the organiation doesn’t view as contributors to the next winning Phillies team.  As last offseason’s surprising Santana contract indicates, Klentak isn’t afraid of going outside the box to make a move he feels will improve his roster.  The Phillies could be the most fascinating team of any to watch this winter, as their moves are likely to be a league-wide influence on the entire offseason’s direction.

Free Agent Rumblings: Jones, Miller, Phillies, Eovaldi

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Adam Jones hopes to keep playing “at least four or five more years,” the veteran outfielder told reporters (including MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko) this weekend at his #StayHungry Purple Tailgate charity event in Baltimore.  Jones turned 33 last August and is coming off a season that saw him hit .281/.313/.419 with 15 homers over 613 plate appearances for the Orioles, making for his lowest home run and slugging average totals since 2008, and below-average run production overall (98 wRC+).  Between his age and the offensive dropoff, Jones may face a difficult market as he test free agency for the first time in his 13-year career, though he is realistic about his prospects.  “It’s like [being] the senior that some people want that not everybody wants, as opposed to the sophomore that everybody wants.  I take it back when I was in high school and getting flirted with a little bit,” Jones said.  “But at the same time, I’ve got no stress. The Orioles have been good to me financially over my career. I just know that I have a lot to offer someone else and I have a lot of gas in the tank.”

A reunion with the Orioles doesn’t appear to be in the cards for now, as Jones said that he hadn’t heard from the team since the season ended.  This isn’t necessarily unusual, as Baltimore only just installed Mike Elias as its new general manager in mid-November, and Elias could have interest in re-signing a team legend to act as an on-field mentor through the Orioles’ rebuilding phase.  Still, Jones’ tribute-filled final game of 2018 campaign (and his own comments following the team) certainly seemed to hint that the two sides would be parting ways.

Here’s more on some other free agents around the game….

  • The Phillies are the latest team to express “active interest” in southpaw Andrew Miller, MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi reports (Twitter link).  The previously-reported Cardinals and Mets are also among the teams looking at Miller, though the left-hander isn’t yet close to signing with anyone.  Injuries limited Miller to just 34 innings in 2018, and likely contributed to his overall middling numbers (at least in comparison to his outstanding performance from 2014-17).  Still, with such a track record, it isn’t surprising that Miller is getting lots of attention from a wide range of teams.  Philadelphia is a natural suitor, as the Phils have loads of money to spend this winter and could want more of a veteran late-game presence to complement star rookie Seranthony Dominguez.
  • Bryce Harper’s name has naturally been attached to the Phillies as they seemingly prepare to embark on a spending spree, to the point that “it’s amazing how many people inside this sport almost assume that the Phillies will be the highest bidder in this auction” for Harper, The Athletic’s Jayson Stark writes (subscription required).  Philadelphia has enough financial resources and available future payroll space to pursue anyone in the free agent market…or maybe even in future markets, as Stark speculates on the idea of Mike Trout and Harper both playing in the Phillies outfield in 2021.  Trout still has two years left on his Angels contract, of course, and thus it’s far too early to guess at what might happen down the road, especially since the Angels have every intention of keeping their superstar.  (“I would bet that Arte would spend $10 billion not to have to read the sentence: ’Arte Moreno was the owner who let Mike Trout walk away,’ ” one executive joked to Stark.)  Still, the Phillies’ financial might and their close proximity to Trout’s hometown of Millville, New Jersey make them seem like a logical candidate should Trout ever test the open market.
  • Nathan Eovaldi is one of the most sought-after names on the free agent starting pitching market, yet “there is a team or two toying with trying to sign him as a reliever,” the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo writes.  Eovaldi’s superb results out of the Red Sox bullpen during their World Series run has surely contributed to this idea, and with two Tommy John surgeries to his name, a case could be made that relief work would be less stressful on Eovaldi’s arm.  This being said, it would be incredibly surprising to see Eovaldi sign on as a reliever after so strongly re-establishing his credentials as a starting pitcher last season.

Trade/Free Agent Rumors: Segura, Diaz, Greinke, Happ

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The Phillies are expected to be one of the offseason’s busiest teams, and thus it’s no surprise they’re heavily featured in this latest roundup of hot stove news from MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi.  Some highlights…

  • The Phillies have interest in Mariners shortstop Jean Segura and closer Edwin Diaz.  We’ve already heard Segura’s name linked to the Padres and Yankees in rumors, and Philadelphia could also make sense as a landing spot given their lack of production from the shortstop position (a sub-replacement -1.8 bWAR in 2018).  Trading for Segura also wouldn’t necessarily close the door on the possibility of signing Manny Machado, as the Phils could use Machado at third base.  Then again, the four years and $58MM remaining on Segura’s contract makes him a cheaper alternative to Machado, though Segura also has some control over his future in the form of a full no-trade clause.  It isn’t yet clear if the M’s would consider dealing Diaz since, with four years of control remaining over the star closer, the team would be theoretically reloaded and ready to contend while Diaz is still on the roster.  The Braves are another team with interest in Diaz, Morosi reports.
  • The Diamondbacks “are confident” they’ll be able to trade Zack Greinke without having to absorb any of the $95.5MM still owed on the right-hander’s contract over the next three seasons., a source tells Morosi.  It’s a very short list of teams with the available payroll space and willingness to make such a big move, which is why Morosi feels the Phillies “are the most logical suitors.”  While the Phillies are also checking into a plethora of other pitching options (including Patrick Corbin and J.A. Happ), Greinke would cost the team less than Corbin would in a long-term commitment.  Acquiring Greinke would also come at a player cost, of course, though it’s possible Arizona would take only a relatively middling prospect return just for the sake of getting Greinke entirely off the books.
  • Speaking of Happ, the veteran left-hander is generating a lot of buzz in free agency.  In addition to the Phillies, the Angels, Astros, and Brewers are new teams who Morosi adds to the already-lengthy list of clubs (the Blue Jays, Reds, Twins, White Sox, and Yankees) who have previously been rumored to have some level of interest in Happ’s services.  Of the newly-cited teams, Milwaukee and Houston offer Happ the best chance of competing for a World Series in 2019, while the Angels and Phillies are a few steps behind at this point of the offseason, though obviously L.A. and Philadelphia each have designs on significant roster upgrades this winter.

Trade & Free Agent Rumors: Dodgers, Indians, Phils, Harvey, Goldschmidt, Brantley

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Always active on the offseason trade market, the Dodgers have been having “lots” of discussions with the Indians regarding a variety of potential scenarios, tweets Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Los Angeles unsurprisingly is intrigued by Cleveland’s pitching — as all teams would be — and Rosenthal notes that catcher Yan Gomes could make sense there as well. Conversely, Cleveland has a significant need in the outfield — an area of depth for Los Angeles. There’s no indication that there’s anything especially close to fruition between the two sides, and Rosenthal even notes that both clubs are chatting with several other teams. The Dodgers, for instance, are one of the many clubs with interest in Marlins star J.T. Realmuto.

Some more chatter on the trade and free-agent markets…

  • Carlos Santana’s name has come up on the rumor mill early in the offseason, but Fancred’s Jon Heyman tweets that the Phillies also have relievers Pat Neshek and Tommy Hunter “on the block.” Reports since the team’s late-season collapse have indicated that the Phillies will be open to trading just about any player other than Aaron Nola and Rhys Hoskins, so it’s only reasonable that they’d be open to moving either relatively high-priced setup man. Neshek is owed $7.75MM and has a $750K buyout on an option for the 2020 season, while Hunter is owed $9MM and will be a free agent next offseason.
  • Heyman also tweets that in addition to the Reds, Matt Harvey is drawing some level of interest from the Athletics. Cincinnati’s interest in Harvey has been well-documented, as he won over some decision-makers in the organization during his four-month run with the Reds. As for Oakland, their search for rotation help is no secret. It’s unlikely that the cost-conscious A’s will be players for the highest-priced options on the free-agent market, making second- and third-tier options
  • The Twins checked in on Diamondbacks first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, tweets Jon Morosi of MLB.com, though the report describes the talks as “preliminary.” While Minnesota has an obvious opening at first base following the retirement of Joe Mauer, though, Dan Hayes of The Athletic downplays the possibility of a Goldschmidt pursuit for Minnesota (Twitter link); Hayes notes that the Twins did make some form of inquiry but adds that this “doesn’t appear to be a path the Twins will go down.” The fit is obvious, but Arizona’s asking price on the perennial MVP candidate will be quite high, and he’s a free agent after the 2019 season.
  • Morosi also tweets that the Cardinals have “maintain[ed] interest” in free-agent outfielder Michael Brantley, although Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch suggests (via Twitter) that Brantley isn’t a top priority for St. Louis. Per Goold, the Cards would need to miss out on more preferable targets and perhaps move other pieces of the roster before embarking on a legitimate pursuit of the 31-year-old. Brantley is coming off a strong season in which he hit .309/.364/.468 with 17 homers, 36 doubles and 12 steals, but the Cards do have in-house alternatives and are known to be looking at bigger fish (i.e. Bryce Harper).

Players Added To The 40-Man Roster

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Tonight marks the deadline for players to be added to their respective organizations’ 40-man rosters. Over the nine hours, there’ll be a flurry of moves, ranging from minor trades (like the one the Indians and Rays made yesterday), waiver claims and players being designated for assignment or outrighted. Each will be made to clear room for players who need protection from this year’s Rule 5 Draft. As a reminder, players who signed at 18 years of age or younger and have five professional seasons are eligible, as are players who signed at 19 or older and have four professional seasons under their belts.

Here’s a rundown of players who’ve been added to their respective 40-man rosters (which will be updated throughout the day)…

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Nathan Eovaldi Drawing Widespread Interest

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4:36pm: Eovaldi has received interest from “everybody and their mother,” a source tells Rob Bradford of WEEI. However, “truly serious suitors” won’t begin to stand out until after Thanksgiving, Bradford hears. The Yankees are among those who will at least consider Eovaldi, per Bradford.

8:59am: Free-agent starter Nathan Eovaldi has drawn considerable interest on the open market, according to the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo, who writes that the Brewers, Phillies, Braves, Angels, White Sox, Blue Jays and Giants join the previously reported Red Sox and Padres as early suitors for the right-hander. More teams may join the fray, Cafardo adds.

Although Eovaldi is a two-time Tommy John surgery recipient who only threw 111 regular-season innings in 2018, the soon-to-be 29-year-old still managed to significantly boost his stock. Across 22 appearances (21 starts) divided between Tampa Bay and Boston, Eovaldi pitched to a solid 3.81 ERA/3.60 FIP with 8.19 K/9, 1.62 BB/9 and a 45.6 percent groundball rate. Among pitchers who threw at least 100 innings, Eovaldi finished third in both average fastball velocity (97.4 mph) and infield fly percentage (15.7), tied for sixth in BB/9, and 12th in K/BB ratio (5.05). He also yielded a paltry .284 expected weighted on-base average, an even more impressive figure than the .293 real wOBA hitters registered against him.

After posting those strong numbers during the regular season, Eovaldi proved capable of shining on the game’s biggest stage for the Red Sox, who couldn’t have asked for more when they acquired him in July. Eovaldi surrendered just four earned runs in 22 1/3 postseason innings, helping the Red Sox vanquish the Yankees, Astros and Dodgers en route to a World Series title. The success Eovaldi enjoyed in October surely helped his stock heading toward the open market, where MLBTR predicts he’ll land a four-year, $60MM guarantee.

A lucrative payday for Eovaldi this offseason may have been unthinkable at this time last year, when he was still recovering from the 2016 Tommy John surgery he underwent as a Yankee. However, Eovaldi now has a clean bill of health. Dr. Christopher Ahmad, who performed Eovaldi’s most recent surgery, gave his right arm a ringing endorsement Friday, telling Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston: “To me, he’s over Tommy John surgery and he’s over revision Tommy John surgery. And I would consider him in the same category of somebody who has a healthy arm, and whatever worry I have about that player, I have the same or less for Nate.”

Adding to Eovaldi’s appeal, he doesn’t come with a qualifying offer attached, which isn’t the case with either Patrick Corbin or Dallas Keuchel – the only starters MLBTR projects to sign bigger contracts. Of course, Eovaldi’s resume isn’t on the level of theirs. While Corbin and Keuchel have offered superstar-caliber production at times, Eovaldi has generally performed like a mid- to back-end starter. Also a former Dodger and Marlin, Eovaldi owns a 4.16 ERA/3.82 FIP with 6.78 K/9, 2.74 BB/9 and a 46.8 percent grounder rate over 850 innings, and he hasn’t exceeded 125 frames in a season since 2015. There are certainly some red flags with Eovaldi, then, yet it’s still unsurprising that teams are lining up for his services.

Poll: Bryce Harper, Manny Machado And The Phillies

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On several occasions over the past decade, the Phillies have shown a willingness to spend among the league’s elite. However, because the Phillies were recently amid a full-fledged rebuild, the big-market club took major steps backward in the spending department. Last year, with Philadelphia aiming to make a sizable leap in the standings, the team began with a modest $95MM-plus in commitments. Two expensive signings from last offseason – right-hander Jake Arrieta (three years, $75MM) and first baseman Carlos Santana (three years, $60MM) –  easily served as the Phillies’ priciest players in 2018, and the duo did help the team make legitimate progress. The Phillies notched their best record since 2012 (80-82), totaling 14 more wins than they amassed in 2017, but they finished under .500 for the sixth consecutive season and extended their playoff drought to seven years.

Santana is now on the block, though his potential exit isn’t a sign that the Phillies are looking to cut costs. Quite the contrary, actually, as owner John Middleton has publicly declared that the Phillies won’t be bashful when it comes to doling out money. In fact, while discussing the Phillies’ offseason plans on Friday, Middleton proclaimed  that “we’re going into this expecting to spend money. And maybe even be a little bit stupid about it. We just prefer not to be completely stupid.”

Even before Middleton made it known that Philadelphia’s looking to go big-game hunting, expectations were that the franchise would spend aggressively this winter. After all, the open market now features two of the most enticing free agents ever in outfielder Bryce Harper and infielder Manny Machado. Combining the Phillies’ spending capabilities with the lack of guaranteed money on their books beyond 2020, pursuits of both Harper and Machado have seemed like foregone conclusions. Both players stand a strong chance of surpassing the richest contract in baseball history – the 13-year, $325MM extension outfielder Giancarlo Stanton signed with the Marlins in 2014 – and the Phillies are among the teams truly capable of spending that type of cash. What’s more, if any one organization is going to sign both Harper and Machado, the Phillies are on a very short list of realistic possibilities.

The need for Harper, Machado or both in Philadelphia is obvious, as either player would clearly boost a position player group which ranked 22nd in runs and 23rd in fWAR in 2018. The Phillies’ 48 hitters accounted for 12.4 fWAR, while Machado (6.2) and Harper (3.5) combined for 9.7 by themselves. The two 26-year-olds have been among the game’s most feared hitters throughout their decorated careers, though Machado has also provided plenty of value as a third baseman. The former Oriole and Dodger would do the same in Philadelphia, which got so-so production at the hot corner from Maikel Franco, current free agent Asdrubal Cabrera and J.P. Crawford, among others, in 2018. Franco’s now penciled in as the Phillies’ 2019 starter at third, but that spot’s ripe for an upgrade.

Philadelphia is seemingly even worse off at shortstop, Machado’s preferred position and where he spent the majority of last season. Machado didn’t have a banner year defensively, but he did place first among shortstops in wRC+ (141) and second in both home runs (38) and fWAR. The Phillies, on the other hand, received a microscopic 0.7 fWAR from shortstops Scott Kingery, Crawford, Cabrera and Pedro Florimon, and their combined wRC+ (74) was barely more than half of Machado’s.

Fortunately for the Phillies, their 2018 outfield wasn’t as toothless as the left side of their infield. That doesn’t mean it’s an area of strength, however. Aside from slugger Rhys Hoskins, who overcame horrific defense to log a respectable fWAR (2.9), the Phillies got mediocre or worse overall production from outfield regulars Odubel Herrera, Nick Williams, Roman Quinn and Aaron Altherr. Going forward, Hoskins may shift to first base, which explains the team’s willingness to trade Santana and could increase the need for Harper or another high-end outfielder. Harper, like Hoskins, had a year to forget in the field. Defensive ineptitude has hardly been the norm for Harper since he debuted in 2012, though, and he made up for it to an extent by notching another quality year at the plate.

Signing Harper would improve the Phillies’ near-term chances of returning to contention, and there’s an added bonus: Landing him would be a blow to the division-rival Nationals, Harper’s only team to date. The Nats, the reigning NL East champion Braves and the Mets will each push for supremacy in the division next season, but the Phillies could wind up as the favorites if general manager Matt Klentak uses Middleton’s money effectively this winter. While there are plenty of avenues Klentak could explore that don’t involve Harper or Machado, speculation about those two heading to Philadelphia will persist until they officially come off the market.

Will the Phillies land Harper, Machado or both?
They won't sign either player 31.15% (4,791 votes)
They'll sign Harper 29.34% (4,513 votes)
They'll sign Machado 22.68% (3,489 votes)
They'll sign both 16.83% (2,588 votes)
Total Votes: 15,381
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