Fallout From David Robertson Signing
David Robertson chose an unconventional path this offseason as a self-represented free agent, and as a right-hander who holds lefties to a .186/.268/.278 mark, he’s unconventional on the bump as well. It’s not surprising to hear, then, that Gabe Kapler’s plan to deploy him whenever the biggest outs are needed suits him just fine. Unconventional he may be, but he is also a modern reliever in every sense, from his ability to neutralize hitters from both sides of the plate, to his durability in multi-inning outings (23 such appearances since 2017), to his ability to miss bats (11.97 K/9 for his career). Despite the robust resume, Robertson isn’t worried about being used in a traditional closer’s role, so long as he gets important outs on the back-end, writes Scott Lauber of Philadelphia Inquirer. For the Phillies, that makes him a perfect fit in a bullpen that has a few guys capable of locking down the ninth. Per Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia, Seranthony Dominguez and Hector Neris figure to share in those closing responsibilities with Robertson, giving second-year skipper Gabe Kapler the freedom to let situations dictate his bullpen management more so than strict role assignments. Dominguez, 24, slowed in the second half of his rookie campaign but showed tremendous promise overall recording 16 saves and a 2.93 ERA, while Neris, 29, saved 11 games last year while striking out a ridiculous 14.3 batters per nine innings. Neris has earned 39 saves over the last three seasons in Philadelphia. Robertson’s signing reverberates beyond just the ninth inning…
- Kapler’s ongoing modernization of the Philly bullpen makes Craig Kimbrel a somewhat odd fit, considering he is one of the few tried-and-true closers left in the MLB. Where Kimbrel does fit (besides previous Boston or Atlanta), however, is entirely (and unjustifiably) unclear, per Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston. Kimbrel’s case is yet another example of the widening gap between players and teams as front offices become increasingly wary of age decline while focusing their efforts (and their payrolls) on value spending. He may not be worth the 6-year, $100MM commitment reported to be the starting ask, but there ought to be more interest for a 30-year-old closer with a proven track record (1.91 ERA, 1.96 FIP, 2.16 xFIP) that is supported by underlying success (14.67 K/9 to 3.46 BB/9, 0.59 HR/9).
- With Robertson in hand and seven out-of-options relievers on their 40-man roster, thinning a now-overcrowded bullpen is next on Philadelphia’s offseason docket, per the Athletic’s Matt Gelb. Veterans Pat Neshek and Tommy Hunter could be the odd men out if the Phils can find a trade partner. Along with the power trio of Robertson, Dominguez, and Neris, recent offseason acquisitions Juan Nicasio (from the Mariners) and Jose Alvarez (from the Angels) would seem to be locks for the pen on Opening Day. Hunter, specifically, was acquired because of his reverse-split ability to retire left-handers, which could now make him vulnerable given Robertson’s skills in the same area. Alvarez, projected to make only $1.7MM this year, would be the easiest to flip, but they probably prefer to move one of their higher-priced expirings like Hunter ($9MM), Nicasio ($9.25MM) or Neshek, who is guaranteed $8.5MM including a buyout for 2020.
- Unless the price for Dallas Keuchel drops significantly, the Phillies seem done shopping for arms, at least until midseason, per Gelb. Aaron Nola and Jake Arrieta head the Philly rotation, but GM Matt Klentak believes in the high floor provided by the depth behind those two, both at the major league level and in Triple A. Nick Pivetta, Vince Velasquez and Zach Eflin round out the rotation, but the renewed health of Jerad Eickhoff provides further flexibility should one of the above trio stumble. Regardless, the Phillies like their current group, and any upgrade would need to be significant. Patrick Corbin provided that kind of upside, but with the former Dback now in Washington, there doesn’t appear to be another available starter the Phils deem worthy of a significant acquisition cost. The next few weeks of free agent hunting figure to focus on the big fish, after which offensive plan B’s or even a reengagement on Kimbrel would likely take precedence over adding another starter.
Phillies Sign David Robertson
7:00pm: Robertson’s deal does contain a range of incentives, per Jon Heyman of Fancred. The 33-year-old will be awarded $50K each for an All-Star appearance, Gold Glove award, or League Championship Series MVP award, and $100K if he’s awarded MVP of the World Series or wins the Cy Young (plus $50K for finishing second, and $25K for a third-place finish). He’ll also donate 1% of his salary to the team’s charity fund.
1:00pm: The Phillies have announced the signing. Because they had two open spots on the 40-man roster, a corresponding move was not necessary.
12:29pm: The Phillies have agreed to a two-year, $23MM contract with free-agent reliever David Robertson, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (via Twitter). The contract contains a $12MM club option for a third season, and Robertson has already passed his physical. He’ll earn $10MM in 2019, $11MM in 2020 and is guaranteed at least a $2MM buyout on the 2021 option. If the option is picked up, the self-represented Robertson would take home a total of $33MM over three years.
Robertson, 33, has been among the game’s most consistent relievers since emerging as a regular more than a decade ago. He’s totaled at least 60 innings and 60 appearances per season dating back to 2010 and hasn’t been on the disabled list since 2014, when he missed the minimum amount of time due to a mild groin strain.
Robertson is fresh off a quality 3.23 ERA with 11.8 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9 and a 45.3 percent ground-ball rate in 69 2/3 innings with the Yankees. He kept his ERA south of 3.50 and averaged at least 10.8 punchouts per nine innings in all four seasons of his the four-year $46MM pact he signed with the White Sox. His 2017 season — 1.84 ERA, 12.9 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 2.57 FIP, 2.76 xFIP through 68 1/3 innings between Chicago and New York — was particularly brilliant.
After spending his entire career to date in the American League, Robertson will head to the National League for the first time, where he’ll pair with breakout 2018 rookie Seranthony Dominguez at the back of a Philadelphia bullpen that also features veterans Tommy Hunter, Pat Neshek and Juan Nicasio, in addition to lefties James Pazos and Jose Alvarez. Hector Neris, Edubray Ramos, Yacksel Rios and Victor Arano are among the other bullpen options for the Phillies, but it presently stands to reason that Dominguez and Robertson will team to handle the majority of the high-leverage innings in Philadelphia.
To that end, Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer tweets that the Phillies’ intention with Robertson is to use him “whenever the game is on the line, regardless of inning.” That should put Robertson firmly in the mix for some saves in Philadelphia, but he’ll also likely be called upon to help escape jams earlier in the game. In those instances, Dominguez could then be in line for more conventional save opportunities.
Robertson is the latest addition in an offseason that has been rife with turnover for the Phillies after GM Matt Klentak promised changes were coming on the heels of a historic late collapse. Since their season ended in catastrophic fashion, the Phillies have shipped out Carlos Santana, signed Andrew McCutchen and acquired each of Nicasio, Pazos and Jean Segura on the trade market. The heaviest lifting for the Phillies may very well be yet to come, though, as the Phillies have been linked to top free agents Bryce Harper and Manny Machado more strongly than virtually any team in baseball.
The Robertson contract falls rather closely in line with the two-year, $25MM contract that Andrew Miller landed with the Cardinals, perhaps further serving to establish the market for the tier of veteran relievers just below top available arm Craig Kimbrel. The Phillies and Yankees were both rumored to be in the mix for Robertson, Zach Britton and Adam Ottavino, so with Robertson now off the board, both Britton and Ottavino could see their markets accelerate.
Fancred’s Jon Heyman first suggested that a deal between the two sides appeared to be getting close (via Twitter), and The Athletic’s Jayson Stark had reported shortly beforehand that there was “lots” of talk surrounding the Phillies and Robertson (Twitter links).
NL East Notes: Eickhoff, Phillies, deGrom, Mets, Realmuto, Braves
The latest from the National League East . . .
- Phillies right-hander Jerad Eickhoff, who made just three late-season appearances for the club in 2018 after battling wrist pain and numbness stemming from untreated carpal tunnel syndrome, is apparently feeling “100 percent” healthy this offseason after undergoing surgery on October 1, writes The Athletic’s Meghan Montemurro. During the moderately-invasive procedure, doctors found that Eickhoff’s palmaris longus tendon was reversed, a rare occurrence even in patients exhibiting symptoms of the ailment, and one that very likely had compounded his discomfort. With the pain-free outlook for 2019, the 28-year-old Eickhoff figures to be in the mix at the back end of a Philly rotation that currently includes Nick Pivetta, Vince Velasquez, and Zach Eflin. Acquired in the 2015 deal that sent Cole Hamels to Texas, Eickhoff is arguably the most accomplished of the bunch, having put together a career ERA south of four (3.91), though his fielding-independent metrics are a bit less propitious, and his stuff – a 90.8 MPH average career fastball that showed little signs of decline even in his supposed injury-hampered ’17 and ’18 seasons – clearly lags behind the rest.
- Despite last summer’s near-ultimatum from current boss Brodie Van Wagenen to either extend or trade former client Jacob deGrom, the team has thus far held back from either. Though the former option remains a “priority,” per sources of the New York Post’s Mike Puma, the team has yet to even present an extension offer to the 30-year-old ace. The reigning Cy Young Award winner had a dream 2018, posting a minuscule 1.70 ERA/1.99 FIP on the way to 8.8 fWAR, the best season for a Mets starting pitcher since Dwight Gooden’s 1985 campaign. It’s unclear whether the Mets will be willing to pony up the necessary cash, which should be considerable, as the team has also co-ace Noah Syndergaard, four years deGrom’s junior, to consider, to say nothing of the huge payout guaranteed to Robinson Cano over the next five seasons.
- Per The Athletic’s David O’Brien on Twitter, it doesn’t appear Miami’s asking price for catcher J.T. Realmuto has dropped much, if at all. Per O’Brien, “no new” discussions have taken place since December’s Winter Meetings, and Atlanta has “moved on” to other needs. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes that the Fish are still insisting on major-league pieces with three or more years of team control remaining for Realmuto, which has set off a veritable chain reaction of balking suitors around the league. It seems increasingly unlikely, at this point, that Miami will get what it desires for Realmuto, and the Fish could face stern brushback around the league if the catcher regresses his to offensive baseline from 2015-17 before next season’s trade deadline.
Bullpen Rumors/Notes: Kimbrel, Red Sox, Phillies, Warren, Wilson, Mets, Angels
Some more rumblings on the market for relievers…
- Prior to this afternoon’s agreement between the Phillies and righty David Robertson, WEEI’s Rob Bradford offered a bit of clarity on the market for Craig Kimbrel. As of this morning, the star closer’s market “seemed to hinge” on whether or not the Phillies would be able to secure the services of either Bryce Harper or Manny Machado. Either signing, it seemed, would move Kimbrel off the table for Philadelphia, though today’s inking of Robertson may have done just that. Boston, then, seems a clear favorite for the 30-year-old fireballer, with Atlanta still lurking at the fringes, but the “stupid-money”-wielding Fightins can’t entirely be ruled out.
- The Mets have some interest in right-hander Adam Warren, reports SNY’s Andy Martino (Twitter links), but a match between the two sides doesn’t appear to be that likely at the moment. Warren, according to Martino, has stronger interest from other clubs, and the Mets are exploring several different bullpen options, including left-hander Justin Wilson. The 31-year-old Warren has a 2.72 ERA in 109 innings across the past two seasons and is accustomed to pitching in multi-inning stints in relief, thus making him an appealing option for many clubs. Wilson, meanwhile, has posted solid ERA marks and huge strikeout totals over the past couple of seasons but has seen his control of the strike zone completely evaporate (5.43 BB/9).
- Per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, the Angels “prefer” to assemble bullpen pieces of the low-cost variety. With hardly a household name in the bunch, early-offseason speculation abounded with respect to Los Angeles and top-market pen arms, but signings of the type don’t appear to be in the cards for Billy Eppler and crew this offseason. Top 2018 perfomer Jose Alvarez has already been shipped to Philadelphia, so the Angels will likely rely on some assortment of Taylor Cole, Luis Garcia, Ty Buttrey, Hansel Robles, Cam Bedrosian, and Justin Anderson (all of whom, save for Robles during his stint with the Mets, excelled at limiting the homer last season) to hold down the team’s fort in the late innings.
Passan’s Latest: Harper, Profar, Gray, Ray, Grandal, Pollock, Ender
It’s too soon to count out a reunion between Bryce Harper and the Nationals, ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan writes in his latest column, as “Harper has met multiple times with representatives” from the team. In a rather surprisingly open interview last month, Nats managing principal owner Mark Lerner said his organization wasn’t willing to go beyond the ten-year, $300MM extension it offered Harper after the season, though rumors have continued to swirl that Washington is still at least monitoring Harper’s market. It could still be some time before we have an answer about Harper’s 2019 destination, as the outfielder (like many Scott Boras clients) is in no rush to sign a contract that doesn’t meet his satisfaction. The Phillies and White Sox, Passan reports, are willing to guarantee Harper at least a ten-year deal, indicating that the two teams have at least made some progress in their pursuit of the free agent outfielder, though obviously the gigantic dollar figure Harper is demanding is still a very notable obstacle.
Some more hot stove items from Passan….
- Before the Rangers dealt Jurickson Profar to the Athletics as part of a three-team trade with the Rays, Texas also explored another three-team scenario involving the Yankees and Braves. “There was traction, at one point,” Passan writes about a deal that would have seen the Yankees get Profar, the Braves get Sonny Gray, and Texas would have received a prospect (presumably from Atlanta’s farm system).
- The Diamondbacks would only consider trading Robbie Ray for a very big return, with Passan noting that Arizona would want more for Ray than the Mariners received from the Yankees for James Paxton back in November. While both Ray and Paxton are front-of-the-rotation southpaws with two remaining years of team control, Ray is almost three full years younger than Paxton, which would explain Arizona’s higher asking price. That deal saw Seattle land an MLB-ready pitching prospect (Justus Sheffield), another young arm on the brink of the majors (Erik Swanson) and a promising lower-level position player (outfielder Dom Thompson-Williams). It’s a steep price tag, though at least two teams with a lot of minor league depth have been linked to Ray in trade rumors.
- News broke last week that Yasmani Grandal turned down a four-year, $60MM offer from the Mets, though Passan says that such an offer was “never officially presented,” and that the terms were “characterized by sources on both sides as more of a discussion.” Grandal’s market seems a little uncertain right now, due to the number of catcher-needy teams who have already found other backstops, and the looming presence of J.T. Realmuto on the trade market. With draft pick compensation via the qualifying offer hanging over Grandal’s services, there is some threat of Grandal becoming (in the words of one executive) “this year’s version of Mike Moustakas,” i.e. a QO free agent whose market thins to the point that he is forced to accept a one-year contract. Grandal accepting a one-year deal “remains unlikely but not out of question,” as per Passan, though the catcher and his camp are reportedly “staying patient” that a satisfactory multi-year deal will eventually surface.
- A.J. Pollock is one of many big-name free agents whose markets may not get moving until Harper and/or Manny Machado sign new contracts. As Passan notes, Pollock is a good fit for both the Phillies and White Sox, though those teams are more likely to focus on Harper and Machado before turning to backup plans. Three executive tell Passan that Pollock’s situation bears similarity to Lorenzo Cain last winter, who had to wait until late January to find a new contract, though his market quickly heated up to the point that he was able to land a hefty five-year, $80MM deal from the Brewers.
- We heard during the Winter Meetings about the Reds‘ interest in Braves center fielder Ender Inciarte, though Passan writes that “talks stagnated” between the two sides, and Cincinnati then pivoted to acquire outfield help in the form of Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp. Neither of those two are viable center field options, of course, so the Reds remain on the hunt for a replacement for Billy Hamilton.
Report: Astros, Phillies “Very Interested” In Robbie Ray
Although Diamondbacks left-hander Robbie Ray reportedly isn’t on the block, he’s nonetheless drawing trade interest, according to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. Both the Astros and Phillies “are very interested” in Ray, Cafardo writes.
Arizona made one notable future-oriented move earlier this offseason when it traded superstar first baseman Paul Goldschmidt to St. Louis, though indications are the Diamondbacks aren’t set to rebuild. As a result, the club may keep Ray and other valuable veterans with the hope that it’ll bounce back from an 82-win 2018 next season. It’s clear, though, that Ray stands out as one of the D-backs’ most appealing trade chips.
Just 27 years old, Ray is fresh off his fourth straight productive season in the desert, where he has posted a 3.84 ERA/3.81 FIP with 11.03 K/9, 4.00 BB/9 and a 42.5 percent groundball rate in 587 2/3 innings since 2015. Ray did experience some travails in 2018, an injury-shortened season in which he logged an ugly walk rate (5.09 per nine), a low groundball percentage (39.2) and an unspectacular FIP (4.31) over 123 2/3 frames. At the same time, though, Ray managed a respectable ERA (3.93) and, among hurlers who threw at least 120 innings, finished fifth in K/9 (12.01), 17th in swinging-strike rate (12.9 percent) and 26th in infield fly percentage (11.9).
Because Ray’s a proven, in-his-prime starter with two years of affordable control remaining – he’ll make a projected $6.1MM in 2019 – it’s likely he has garnered interest from several teams besides Houston and Philadelphia this offseason. Regardless, the fact that those two clubs are eyeing Ray makes sense.
While the Astros’ starting unit features three established veterans in co-aces Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole and solid mid-rotation arm Collin McHugh, they’ve already said goodbye to Charlie Morton in free agency, and Dallas Keuchel may be next to sign elsewhere. Further, before free agency commenced, the Astros lost Lance McCullers Jr. for 2019 on account of Tommy John surgery. As a result, their rotation has two question marks in it heading into next season, and each of Verlander, Cole and McHugh are slated to hit the open market a year from now. Ray would help cover for their potential 2020 exits to some degree.
The Phillies’ rotation isn’t facing as much upheaval over the next year as the Astros’, though Philly could cut ties with Jake Arrieta next winter. For now, Arrieta and ace Aaron Nola are entrenched in the Phils’ rotation going into 2019, with Nick Pivetta, Vince Velasquez, Zach Eflin and Jerad Eickhoff currently looking like the favorites to battle it out for the remaining three spots. Pivetta, Velasquez and Eflin had difficulty preventing runs in 2018, however, while Eickhoff totaled a mere 5 1/3 innings in the bigs on account of serious injury issues.
Dallas Keuchel Still Seeking Five-Year Deal
Dallas Keuchel is the top remaining starter on the free-agent market, and though the New Year is nearly upon us, he and agent Scott Boras are still seeking a lofty five-year contract, tweets Jon Morosi of MLB.com. The Phillies, according to Morosi, have been in pursuit of Keuchel but aren’t willing to offer him a five-year deal. Two weeks ago, Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com had a similar report regarding the Nationals’ interest in Keuchel, writing at the time that the Nats were “leery of giving him the five- or six-year deal he seeks.”
Perhaps the notion of a six-year deal has fallen to the wayside, but even a five-year pact for Keuchel would represent somewhat of a surprise. MLBTR predicted a four-year deal worth $82MM at the outset of free agency, and to this point there are more reports of teams being wary regarding his asking price than of those strongly pursuing the 2015 AL Cy Young winner. Beyond the Phillies and Nationals, the Reds have also been prominently connected to Keuchel, but recent indications are that they’d be reluctant to meet his asking price. The fact that Cincinnati has already added both Alex Wood and Tanner Roark likely lessens their urgency to add a high-profile free agent, as well.
In addition to those three teams, Keuchel has been tied to the Angels, Brewers, Rangers and Padres over the past couple of weeks. He was also linked to the Braves and Blue Jays earlier in the offseason, although those reports were contested fairly quickly.
The Phillies, though, have been previously tied to Keuchel, and it seems there’s still some interest on their part if the asking price eventually comes down. In many ways, it’s a scenario reminiscent of last winter’s Jake Arrieta saga, in which the Phillies were frequently connected to the right-hander (also a Scott Boras client) throughout the winter but only agreed to terms with Arrieta once his asking price dropped to three guaranteed years. Keuchel is a year younger now than Arrieta was last winter, so speculatively speaking, perhaps they’d be a willing to bring in Keuchel on a four-year term — thus guaranteeing his salaries through age 34, just as they did with Arrieta.
While much of the Phillies’ offseason has centered around Manny Machado and Bryce Harper, upgrading the rotation is nonetheless a priority for GM Matt Klentak (as evidenced by Philadelphia’s unsuccessful pursuit of Corbin). Right-hander Aaron Nola broke out as a legitimate No. 1 starter and finished third in NL Cy Young voting this past season, and Arrieta gives the Phillies a solid veteran to follow him in the rotation. Beyond that pairing, the trio of Nick Pivetta, Zach Eflin and Vince Velasquez has shown promise at times but still lacks experience. There’s also been longstanding speculation that Velasquez’s eventual home may be in the bullpen rather than the rotation.
Market Notes: Realmuto, Padres, Phillies, Harper/Machado, Rays
Rounding up the latest in market chatter . . .
- Per Fox Sports’ Jon Morosi on Twitter, the Padres have “continued talks” with the Marlins on a potential J.T. Realmuto trade and “could move” catcher Austin Hedges for pitching help if the deal were to be consummated. Though the long-suffering Friars could certainly use a near-term upgrade behind the dish, the 27-year-old Realmuto seems an odd fit – he comes, after all, with just two years left of control, during which time the club would need to seriously embark on a frenetic hole-patching effort if it hoped to compete. Catcher Francisco Mejia, acquired in a midseason blockbuster from Cleveland, seems near-ready to contribute (though he does face his questions about his ability to handle the position defensively), and Hedges, though highly unlikely to net a significant mound upgrade via trade, did flash signs of emerging as a potential regular last season, slugging .466 in the season’s 2nd half and posting an overall (.231/.282/.429) park-adjusted line that bested the average MLB mark for backstops in 2018.
- The “word,” according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post, is that neither Bryce Harper nor Manny Machado “particularly likes” the idea of playing in Philadelphia, though whether the reluctance is city- or team-centric (or both) remains an open question. The Phillies, of course, are all set to spend “stupid money” this offseason, though thus far their acquisitions have been limited to just Andrew McCutchen and a trade for shortstop Jean Segura. For their part, MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM hears the same, tweeting that “reports are” neither free agent is enamored with the City of Brotherly Love. If true, the reports may cut deep for the Fightins, who’d likely have to dig far into the blueprints to find an offseason plan not containing either star at its center.
- The Rays, who’d placed Nelson Cruz near the top of their current wish list, remain in the market for a right-handed hitter after learning the 38-year-old picked Minnesota, tweets Sherman, who lists Realmuto and Nick Castellanos as possibilities but says the team is now “more likely” to get a “complementary” bat like that of former Met Wilmer Flores. Jon Heyman of Fancred tweets that the Rays “suggested” to Cruz that their offer could reach $12MM, which obviously fell a bit of short of the Twins’ total. Tampa, of course, seems as prime a target as any to deal for a major upgrade (or two) with multiple years of control remaining, though the club seems loath as ever to deal from its trove of low-level prospects and big-league-ready performers. Given the club’s perennially meager payroll, it stands to reason that hoarding players of that ilk would be a top priority, but with the division at its toughest state in years, calculated aggression may be soon be necessary.
Market Notes: Cruz, Harper, Kluber, Bauer, Ottavino, Harrison
Prior to this morning’s agreement with the Twins, slugger Nelson Cruz received “competitive” offers from both the Rays and Astros, according to Juan Toribio of The Athletic (Twitter link) and Fancred’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link). Specifics aren’t known, but it seems likely that the Twins would’ve had to outbid either by a fairly notable margin, given that the Rays won 90 games last season while the Astros won the 2017 World Series and appeared in a second consecutive American League Championship Series this past season. Minnesota ultimately secured Cruz with a $14.3MM bid that includes a $14MM salary for the 2019 season and a $12MM club option ($300K buyout) for the 2020 campaign. If Houston or Tampa Bay is still keen on adding a notable right-handed bat, there should be numerous options in play. The rebuilding Tigers, for instance, would likely be willing to move Nicholas Castellanos as he enters his final season of club control. The Cardinals, meanwhile, could move Jose Martinez to an American League club that’d be better suited to mask his defensive shortcomings at the DH spot.
Some more notes on the both the trade and free-agent markets…
- The Cardinals have been an oft-speculated landing spot for Bryce Harper but have not been rumored to have any meaningful interest in the market’s top free agent. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch explored the situation in his latest Q&A with readers, explaining the numerous reasons that the Cardinals feel a pursuit of Harper would differ from their prior pursuits of huge contracts for David Price, Jason Heyward and Giancarlo Stanton. Above all else, it seems that the sizable discrepancy between Harper’s asking price and even those other substantial contracts is a roadblock for the St. Louis front office. The Cards also don’t have the personal connection with Harper that they had after a year of having Heyward in the clubhouse, and they’re generally averse to the leverage that opt-out clauses provide players on lengthy free-agent deals.
- In an appearance on MLB Network’s Hot Stove this morning, Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com downplayed the possibility of the Indians trading a top starter (video link). “I don’t think it’s particularly likely they move either Corey Kluber or Trevor Bauer at this moment,” said Castrovince, citing sources with the Indians. While he cautioned that things can change with a single call or text, the roughly $21MM saved in trades of Yan Gomes, Edwin Encarnacion and Yonder Alonso has alleviated pressure to pare back payroll from its record levels in a 2018 season that saw the total attendance decline. That, of course, doesn’t mean rumors or conversations surrounding Kluber will cease — they assuredly will not — but it’s worth keeping in mind when parsing the inevitable continuation of Kluber rumblings. More than 18,000 readers voted in last night’s MLBTR poll asking whether Cleveland would actually trade Kluber, and the response was a near-even split (52-48 in favor of Kluber being moved).
- The White Sox, Red Sox and Rockies are all maintaining some level of interest in free-agent reliever Adam Ottavino, tweets Jon Morosi of MLB.com. As one of the top relievers on the market, the 33-year-old Ottavino should have no shortage of clubs inquiring about his services, though the asking price on top-end bullpen arms could prove prohibitive for some clubs. To this point, Jeurys Familia (three years, $30MM), Joe Kelly (three years, $25MM) and Andrew Miller (two years, $25MM) are among the relievers MLBTR ranked in Ottavino’s tier of free agency to have cashed in quite nicely. Given his 2.43 ERA, 2.74 FIP, 2.82 SIERA and 13.0 K/9 mark, Ottavino figures to have a fairly high ask, as well. The interest from each of the three teams listed by Morosi has been previously reported, and there are some issues with some of the fits. Adding Ottavino, for instance, could push the Red Sox back into the top tier of the luxury tax bracket. And the Rockies spent more than $100MM on their ‘pen last winter, which could make them reluctant to add a fourth reliever on the type of multi-year contract Ottavino should ultimately command.
- Heyman tweets that infielder/outfielder Josh Harrison has current interest from the Nationals, Reds, Rangers, Giants and Brewers, and he could ultimately generate interest from teams like the Yankees, Phillies and Dodgers — depending on how their pursuits of the market’s top free agents pans out. (Presumably, the Phillies or Yankees would have interest in the event that either failed to land Manny Machado.) Harrison would give the Nats a potential regular option at second base, while the Rangers are in need of a third baseman following the trade of Jurickson Profar. Joe Panik‘s stock is down in San Francisco, and the Brewers, too, are in need of an everyday option at either second or third (depending on where they play Travis Shaw in 2019). The fit for the Reds is a bit more muddied, as Harrison would appear to be more of a bench option there, though it’s worth noting that he is a Cincinnati native.
3 Remaining Needs: NL East
There’s been no division in baseball more active than the National League East this offseason, as the Mets (Robinson Cano, Edwin Diaz, Wilson Ramos), Phillies (Jean Segura, Andrew McCutchen), Nationals (Patrick Corbin, Anibal Sanchez, Yan Gomes, Kurt Suzuki) and Braves (Josh Donaldson, Brian McCann) have each made multiple additions with an eye toward contending in 2019. That said, with the New Year fast approaching, each of those teams — and the cellar-dwelling Marlins — still have work to do and various needs to address. Here’s a look at what work remains to be done in one of the game’s most competitive divisions (teams listed in order of 2018 standings)…
Atlanta Braves
- Add a starter to the top half of the rotation. Mike Foltynewicz had a breakout season in 2018, while Sean Newcomb showed plenty of potential. The July addition of Kevin Gausman gave Atlanta another quality mid-rotation option, they’ve also lost arguably their most effective (and certainly their most surprising) rotation member in Sanchez, who has agreed to terms with the division-rival Nats. The Braves aren’t lacking on intriguing options to round out the rotation (e.g. Touki Toussaint, Luiz Gohara, Kolby Allard, Max Fried, Mike Sorokia, Kyle Wright), but there’s a clear lack of an established top-of-the-rotation arm.
- Address the vacancy in right field. Nick Markakis is a free agent and wasn’t able to sustain the eye-opening power surge he displayed through the season’s first six weeks. The venerable 35-year-old would be a fine option to return and man the position even if he shouldn’t be expected to repeat his 2018 numbers. The recent contracts for Andrew McCutchen and Michael Brantley subtracted two quality options from the open market, leaving top free agent Bryce Harper and a host of part-time veterans (e.g. Adam Jones, Carlos Gonzalez) as open-market alternatives.
- Bolster the bullpen. Arodys Vizcaino currently slots in as the projected closer, with A.J. Minter and Dan Winkler among the intriguing younger options. Veterans Darren O’Day and Jonny Venters bring plenty of talent but plenty of injury risk. Many of the young starters who don’t land in the rotation could be ‘pen options, as well, but there are obvious opportunities for a veteran arm to solidify the relief corps.
Washington Nationals
- Solidify second base. Howie Kendrick and Wilmer Difo are the Nationals’ top two options at present, but the former is coming off a season mostly lost to a ruptured Achilles tendon while the latter has yet to prove he can hit Major League pitching. Short-term veterans like Brian Dozier and Josh Harrison could serve as a bridge to top prospect Carter Kieboom, who could very well be the Nats’ long-term option there.
- Explore options for the fifth spot in the rotation. Adding a fifth starter isn’t necessarily an imperative for the Nationals, but a veteran to push Joe Ross and Erick Fedde for that slot could prove prudent — especially with Ross entering his first full season back from Tommy John surgery. Starting pitching is a clear strength, but the Nationals’ upper-level options in Triple-A are largely underwhelming, which makes a veteran addition, even on a minor league deal, all the more logical.
- Continue to monitor Bryce Harper’s market. It’s quite possible that Harper’s time in D.C. is legitimately over, especially considering the fact that he rejected a 10-year extension offer worth a reported $300MM in late September. But if Harper’s market doesn’t develop as strongly as agent Scott Boras hopes, the Nats should be looming on the periphery of the market to see if there’s a possible compromise to be had with their longtime star.
Philadelphia Phillies
- Acquire an impact bat. Wise or not, the Phillies set their fans’ expectations as high as possible when owner John Middleton said earlier this offseason that he could get “a little stupid” with the money that he spent in free agency this winter. Philly has been connected to Harper and Manny Machado for so long, that some fans will consider it an outright failure if at least one of the two isn’t in manager Gabe Kapler‘s Opening Day lineup.
- Upgrade the middle of the rotation. Of course, even if Bryce and Manny end up elsewhere, the Phils could still craft a winning path. Beyond pursuing any and all creative options that can be placed on the table, Matt Klentak and company would do well to bolster an already solid rotation. While it was generally an area of strength in 2018, and could be again without modification, the rotation is also an obvious place for the Phillies to slot in a significant (or even blockbuster) addition. Opportunity remains in both trade and free agency. If an acquisition results in a hurler such as Nick Pivetta, Vince Velasquez, or the rehabbing Jerad Eickhoff being knocked into the bullpen for some or all of the season, well, that’s a nice luxury to have.
- Add to the back end of the bullpen. The Phils have some interesting youthful power arms along with a few respected veterans in their current bullpen mix, but it’s far from a standout group on the whole. Given the whispers regarding the team’s willingness to part with Tommy Hunter and/or Pat Neshek, it does not seem as if the front office is entirely satisfied with the current unit, either. This is one of a few clubs that could easily afford to splurge on Craig Kimbrel, not that we’ve seen any real indication of a connection. A variety of other notable relief targets are still floating around the market as well.
New York Mets
- Figure out who’s playing center field. On paper, it’s possible to imagine a situation where Michael Conforto or Brandon Nimmo shares time in center with the right-handed-hitting Juan Lagares. And the Mets have already added center-field-capable veterans Rajai Davis and Gregor Blanco on minors pacts, perhaps hinting that they’ll be looking for a budget reserve piece to help keep up appearances while Yoenis Cespedes works back to health. But these are really half-measures, and the Brodie Van Wagenen-led Mets have set their sights on more than mediocrity. Will the team really fall back on Lagares in a significant role? Or is there another move yet to come? There were plenty of rumors about A.J. Pollock, who’d certainly fill the need, but Van Wagenen has also hinted the team may not put big money on the free agent table after already adding a few reasonably expensive pieces.
- Improve the bench/pen depth. When you’re trying to take a team from 77 to 90+ wins in a competitive division, every little bit counts. If another more significant addition isn’t to be made, then perhaps the way to get better is to add a few lower-priced assets that can add major value in part-time roles. At present, the position-player reserve competition is set to include players such as T.J. Rivera, Dominic Smith, Gavin Cecchini, Luis Guillorme, and Dilson Herrera along with Davis and Blanco. Meanwhile, relievers battling for MLB spots include Drew Smith, Tim Peterson, Corey Oswalt, Chris Flexen, Paul Sewald, Jacob Rhame, Bobby Wahl, Kyle Dowdy, and Daniel Zamora. Put it all together and … there’s not a lot in the way of established MLB performance in those areas.
- Trade Travis d’Arnaud or Kevin Plawecki. Re-shuffling things a bit might help the Mets make better use of resources. Having decided to go with Wilson Ramos behind the dish, the club seems to have one MLB catcher too many, particularly with Tomas Nido also available (with options) on the 40-man. A deal of either d’Arnaud or Plawecki seems all but certain. Turning one of those players into a decent reliever or worthwhile prospect would be a nice outcome.
Miami Marlins
- Find a trade partner for J.T. Realmuto. Last winter, the Fish played coy on Christian Yelich but ultimately dealt him.They nevertheless held Realmuto — a decision that actually seems to have worked out. While he’s now just two years from free agency, Realmuto also firmly established himself as the game’s best overall catcher in the interim. Now, we’re seeing more talk about hanging onto him entering another rebuilding season. That seems only to be cover, though, because the risks greatly outweigh the upside (if any) in holding on to Realmuto to open the season. Several suitors have moved on, but others remain. The Marlins ought to pick the best bid in the coming weeks.
- Acquire veteran outfield depth. This version of the Marlins is obviously going to be young and inexperienced. But that doesn’t mean that Derek Jeter and co. are interested in a re-boot of the Major League series set in South Beach. The new regime has spoken about the need for winning mentalities and the like. Meanwhile, it has a variety of talented young outfielders who’ll need time to finish their development and guidance in making the leap to the game’s top level. Last year, the Fish secured the services of Cameron Maybin. It seems a similar move would again be wise.
- Be opportunistic on relievers late in the offseason. It’s never wise for a losing team to blow money on relief pitching. On the other hand, value bets in the bullpen are quite a nice strategy for a rebuilding organization. For one thing, a decent pen helps the club avoid depressing, late-game losses. For another, it is an easy and cheap avenue for infusing some of that ever-loved veteran presence into a locker room. And every contender in baseball will be looking for reliever reinforcements this summer, so it’s always nice to have a stock of potential trade chips on hand. Landing a few interesting arms shouldn’t be too hard to pull off. The Marlins have plenty of opportunities to offer up (including late-inning roles, potentially) and can use that, moreso than money, to lure a few hurlers who otherwise have slipped through the cracks.