Latest On Tigers’ Pursuit Of A Shortstop
The Tigers continue to cast a wide net in free agency as they attempt to build off an encouraging 2021 season. MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reports that the team has already spoken to representatives for six of this winter’s premier middle infielders (Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Trevor Story, Javier Báez, and Chris Taylor). Morosi notes in a separate tweet that there’s some industry uncertainty over whether the Tigers would sign a player in the $250MM range, but that may have less to do with the team’s regard for the free agent shortstops and more to do with Detroit’s rotation needs.
It’s commonplace for teams to perform due diligence checks with agents in the offseason, even if the team isn’t optimistic about its chances to sign a certain player. Still, there is a perception among some in the sport that a few teams could be aggressive and move quickly in their pursuit of high-end free agents. The Tigers were among the teams listed as candidates to sign prominent players before the current CBA expires.
Detroit can afford to be opportunistic in the very literal sense that they have a ton of open payroll space. Even after extending Jonathan Schoop and their recent acquisition of Tucker Barnhart, the team has a projected 2022 payroll of just $93MM per Roster Resource. Non-tenders would shrink that estimate even further, and Detroit has a few prominent non-tender candidates (most notably Matthew Boyd) on large projected arb salaries. Given that the Tigers ran out a $200MM roster as recently as 2017, it’s easy to see the current payroll swelling in order to fling open the team’s competitive window.
Owing to this financial flexibility and a middle-infield that collectively posted a sub-.700 OPS last season, it’s understandable why the team would zero in on the solutions presented on the open market. Complicating this approach, however, is that Detroit has a very young rotation that posted middling run-prevention numbers last year.
The high-upside group of starters is likely to tap into some of its potential with more experience, but there’s validity in surrounding this pitching core with more proven commodities. After all, even if the team is hopeful each of Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal, and Matt Manning take a step forward, certain rotation-wide stats like a 4.66 FIP (4.17 ERA) and a low 18.8% strikeout rate portray a staff that is very much headed for regression.
Those three youngsters, of course, were not the only members of this past season’s rotation. Both Boyd and Spencer Turnbull soaked up innings for Detroit in 2021, providing some of the best numbers the pitching staff had to offer. Unfortunately, both players saw their productive seasons end prematurely. Boyd pitched to a personal-best 3.89 ERA across 15 starts for the team before being shut down to undergo forearm surgery that looks likely to lead to him being let go.
The 29-year-old Turnbull was amidst an even stronger season. Through eight starts and 50 innings, the right-hander posted a 2.88 ERA with superb command and ground-ball tendencies, to say nothing of the no-hitter he twirled against Seattle in May. News broke that Turnbull would require Tommy John surgery in July and, similar to Boyd, will likely miss the majority of the 2022 season. While the injury-created voids in next year’s rotation are far from ideal, one silver lining is that Detroit will at least maintain control of Turnbull through the 2024 season (barring changes to the service time structure in the next CBA).
Taking a two-pronged approach to the free agent market makes perfect sense then, since the Tigers can invest just about any level of resources to upgrade their middle infield and then use another chunk of their payroll to buttress their rotation. Detroit has already been linked to a number of mid-rotation starters, giving them multiple avenues to make a splash this offseason.
14 Players Receive Qualifying Offers
Today was the last day for teams to issue qualifying offers to eligible free agents, as teams had to make their decisions by 4pm CT. With the deadline now behind us, here are the players who were issued the one-year, $18.4MM offers…
- Brandon Belt, Giants (link)
- Nick Castellanos, Reds (link)
- Michael Conforto, Mets (link)
- Carlos Correa, Astros (link)
- Freddie Freeman, Braves (link)
- Raisel Iglesias, Angels (link)
- Robbie Ray, Blue Jays (link)
- Eduardo Rodriguez, Red Sox (link)
- Corey Seager, Dodgers (link)
- Marcus Semien, Blue Jays (link)
- Trevor Story, Rockies (link)
- Noah Syndergaard, Mets (link)
- Chris Taylor, Dodgers (link)
- Justin Verlander, Astros (link)
This is the highest number of qualifying offers issued since the 2015-16 offseason, when a record 20 players received the QOs. Only six players received qualifying offers last winter, which was the lowest ever issued in an offseason, yet not really surprising given the pandemic’s impact on the 2020 season and league revenues.
These 14 players now have until November 17 to decide whether or not to accept the offer. If they accept, they’ll receive $18.4MM next season, and can’t be traded until June 15, 2022. They also won’t be eligible to receive a qualifying offer in any future trips to free agency (players are also ineligible for the qualifying offer if they haven’t spent at least one full season with their current team). Since the qualifying offer system was introduced in the 2012-13 offseason, 10 of the 96 players to receive a QO have taken the deal.
If a player rejects the qualifying offer, draft pick compensation is now attached to their market, unless they re-sign with their former team. Teams who sign a QO free agent will have to surrender at least one draft pick, and potentially some international bonus pool money depending on their status as revenue-sharing recipients or whether or not they exceeded the luxury tax threshold. (Here is the list of what every team would have to give up to sign a QO free agent.)
If a QO free agent signs elsewhere, that player’s former team receives a compensatory draft pick based on this criteria….
- A draft pick after Competitive Balance Round B will be awarded if the team losing the free agent did not receive revenue sharing or if the free agent in question signed a contract worth less than $50MM in guaranteed money.
- A draft pick after Round 1 will be awarded if the team losing the free agent received revenue sharing and the free agent in question signed for more than $50MM.
- A draft pick after Round 4 will be awarded if the team losing the free agent paid luxury tax penalties in the preceding season.
As always, several factors are weighed by both teams and players about whether or not to issue or accept qualifying offers. This winter provides yet another wrinkle — this could be the final year of the current qualifying offer system due to the expiration of the current Collective Bargaining Agreement on December 1. It is widely expected that the owners could lock out the players if a new deal isn’t reached by that date. In the event of a lockout, MLB would institute a roster freeze on all transactional business involving Major League players, thus bringing the free agent market to a halt.
With this deadline looming, it is possible we could see some QO recipients (those less certain of landing big multi-year contracts) choose to accept the one-year deal in order to guarantee themselves some financial and contractual security prior to a possible lockout. By that same token, this could make teams warier about extending the qualifying offer to certain players due to a larger suspicion that they would accept…or perhaps a player’s willingness to accept could make a team more inclined to issue a QO to a so-called borderline case.
Jon Gray Has Reportedly Rejected Extension Offer From Rockies
Jon Gray rejected an extension offer the Rockies made him before the end of the regular season, reports Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. Gray continues to have interest in sticking with Colorado long-term, Saunders adds, although the expectation is now that he’ll at least test the open market.
There’s been reported mutual interest between the Rox and Gray in a long-term deal for months, but the sides have yet to line up on acceptable terms. Saunders suggests the right-hander could target a three or four-year deal with an average annual value in the $9-10MM range on the open market. Whether that kind of deal would be attainable could depend upon whether the Rockies tag Gray with a qualifying offer. Doing so would entitle the Rockies to draft pick compensation were he to sign elsewhere, although he’d be a strong candidate to accept an $18.4MM offer to return in 2022.
Perhaps that’d be a mutually agreeable outcome, since Colorado clearly has interest in retaining Gray. Despite already being out of postseason contention by late July, the Rockies seemingly made Gray unavailable relatively early on trade deadline day. That course of action makes little sense unless the team wants to keep him around, and subsequent reports made clear that’s the case.
Gray bounced back from an injury-plagued 2020 to post a solid season this year. Over 149 innings, the 29-year-old worked to a 4.59 ERA with average or better strikeout (24.4%), walk (9%) and ground-ball (48.4%) rates. He thrived at Coors Field, tossing 78 1/3 frames of 4.02 ERA ball while holding opponents to a .205/.291/.365 line in home starts. With how difficult it has proven for the Rockies to find pitchers capable of succeeding in the game’s most hitter-friendly environment, it’s easy to see why general manager Bill Schmidt and his staff have continually expressed interest in keeping Gray around.
Saunders adds some additional context on Colorado’s offseason priorities, writing that the club is expected to target “at least two impactful players.” What constitutes an impact addition is open to interpretation, but Saunders suggests the club will look for a power-hitting bat this winter, preferably an outfielder. He floats Nick Castellanos (almost certain to opt out of his contract with the Reds), Michael Conforto and utilityman Chris Taylor as possible targets.
That’s a varied collection of potential players of interest. Castellanos looks like a candidate for a nine-figure deal. Taylor has a strong case for a four-year contract in the $65+MM range. Conforto could land three or four years himself, but it’s also possible he looks for a one-year bounceback deal after a mediocre 2021 campaign. Signing any of that group would probably cost the Rockies a draft choice, as they’re all likely qualifying offer recipients.
As for other areas of need for the Rockies, Saunders floats the bullpen and middle infield. Shortstop Trevor Story is expected to reject a QO and sign elsewhere, leaving a middle infield vacancy. Former top prospect Brendan Rodgers has seemingly locked down one spot after hitting .284/.328/.470 across 415 plate appearances this past season. Rodgers is capable of manning either of shortstop or second base, leaving some flexibility for Schmidt and company in addressing the dirt.
Plugging all those position player gaps and/or retaining Gray would certainly make for a costly winter. Earlier this month, Colorado president Greg Feasel said the club was planning to increase payroll over the course of the next two offseasons — eventually pushing from 2021’s $118MM figure closer to their franchise-record $145MM mark from 2019. Colorado should indeed have spending room to work with, as Jason Martinez of Roster Resource estimates they have around $79MM in 2022 commitments at the moment — including projected arbitration salaries.
That financial flexibility should give the front office real room for upgrades, but they’ll have a tall task in constructing a contender. The Rockies have finished in fourth place in the NL West in each of the past three seasons, and the impending departure of Story only makes a return to contention in that loaded division harder. Despite those challenges, Saunders’ report reinforces that the Rockies aren’t planning to take a step back this winter. They’re at least plotting a hopeful win-now course of action that could see them remain in the market for some of the offseason’s top free agent hitters.
Chris Taylor And The Ben Zobrist Contract
Much ink has already been spilled, or pixels illuminated, about the upcoming offseason and the superclass of shortstops. Even though the Mets extended Francisco Lindor and took one of the most intriguing names out of the pool, it’s still going to feature such marquee names as Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Trevor Story, Javier Baez and Marcus Semien. But there’s one name that’s also on the list that is sometimes overlooked. If you’ve read the headline to this piece, then you already know I’m talking about Chris Taylor.
Perhaps the reason Taylor doesn’t quite fit in with the rest of that group is that he’s not exactly an everyday shortstop like the rest of them. (Semien has been playing mostly second base this year, but only because of the presence of Bo Bichette next to him. He could very easily return to shortstop duty with a new club next season.) Taylor is more of a utility guy who is capable of playing some shortstop, if needed. He’s appeared at the position in each of the past eight seasons, but never more than 81 games. Also, he reached that number back in 2018. In 2019, that number dropped to 39. In the shortened 2020 season, it was 20 games, exactly one third of the 60-game reduced schedule. This year, it’s only been 22 games so far. The fact that he’s not considered an everyday option is at least somewhat borne out by statistics. To give one example, of the 46 players to log at least 1000 innings at shortstop over the past five years, Taylor’s UZR/150 of -7.5 ranks 43rd, in the vicinity of guys who don’t play at short much anymore, such as Aledmys Diaz and Manny Machado.
Still, even though he’s not an everyday option, he has versatility, which is something teams love. Taylor has also played second base, third base and all three outfield positions this year, meaning that he could conceivably be plugged into the lineup of any team in the league and move around to their area of greatest need. That could potentially give him tremendous leverage in free agency this winter, just as it did for Ben Zobrist six years ago. Zobrist was able to use that vast market to net himself a four-year, $56MM contract with the Cubs in December of 2015. Could Chris Taylor get something like that? Well, let’s compare.
For starters, Taylor will have a distinct advantage over Zobrist in one category: age. Zobrist was set to turn 35 in May of 2016, shortly after making his Cubs debut. Taylor just turned 31 two weeks ago. Taylor will be 3 1/2 years younger while on the market this winter than Zobrist was back in 2015, meaning a team could potentially be willing to put an even longer contract in front of Taylor.
Secondly, in terms of defense, although Zobrist had shortstop experience, he didn’t play there in 2015. Then he only logged 15 innings at shortstop over the course of his time with the Cubs. Clearly, the club wasn’t expecting him to provide significant time there. Nor was he an option in center field. His last action there was seven games for the Rays in 2014. Taylor, on the other hand, has played 56 games in center this season and 181 over the past five years. Although much was made of Zobrist’s versatility, he was primarily a second baseman and corner outfielder by the time he signed with the Cubs. Due to Taylor’s ability to play almost everywhere, including premium positions like shortstop and center field, he brings more versatility to the table than Zobrist did at that time.
That’s age and defense, but what about the bat? Since becoming an everyday player in 2017, Taylor has played in 610 games and logged 2,349 plate appearances over those five seasons. His line in that time is .266/.344/.464, which amounts to a wRC+ of 118. In the five years leading up to Zobrist’s contract, he played 742 games and logged 3,229 plate appearances, with a line of .272/.359/.437, wRC+ of 124. Zobrist has the higher batting average but Taylor has more power and ends up with fairly similar production overall.
That’s being a bit unfair to Zobrist because it leaves out his monster 2009 season wherein he hit .297/.405/.543 for a wRC+ of 152 and produced 8.7 fWAR. However, that was a distant memory by the time the Cubs signed Zobrist heading into the 2016 season. You don’t sign a player who’s about to turn 35 based on what he did when he was 28. However, by the same token, one could argue that we shouldn’t be including Taylor’s excellent 2017 season because he was 26 then but is 31 now. If we shrink the sample down to the three years before free agency, Zobrist’s line is .274/.356/413, wRC+ of 117, whereas Taylor’s line is .262/.345/.459, wRC+ of 117.
Okay, so, Taylor is like a younger and more versatile version of 2015-2016 Zobrist, and very similar with the bat. One major unknown at the moment, though, is what kind of momentum he will bring into the offseason. One thing I’ve failed to mention thus far is that Zobrist entered free agency on the heels of an excellent playoff performance, having just helped the Royals win the 2015 World Series. In that postseason, Zobrist played in 16 games, garnering 75 plate appearances, producing a line of .303/.365/.515, wRC+ of 133.
Taylor is in the opposite position right now, slumping terribly over the past month. Since August 13th, he’s hitting .136/.217/.272, wRC+ of 34. It seems this slide could at least be somewhat chalked up to a neck injury that has kept Taylor out of action for almost a week now. But the Dodgers haven’t placed him on the injured list, which suggests they don’t think it’s terribly serious. Teams are surely able to overlook a small, injury-caused slump amidst a solid five-year run of success. Though it would certainly help Taylor’s earning power if he could prove that’s all it is by getting back to being healthy and productive. The window for him to do that is getting narrow, however, since there’s just over two weeks remaining in the regular season. The Dodgers have already clinched a playoff berth of some kind, but they’re 1 1/2 games behind the Giants in the race for the NL West crown, meaning they’re guaranteed only one postseason game.
Another wrinkle is the qualifying offer. Zobrist was traded mid-season in 2015, making him ineligible for it. Taylor, on the other hand, will most likely receive one, assuming his long-term health outlook is okay. That means that any team signing him would have to forfeit their second-highest draft pick, or third-highest, if they are a revenue-sharing recipient. That would certainly dampen his market somewhat.
Taking all of that into account, where does that leave us? Zobrist got four years, $56MM, which is an average annual value of $14MM. Taylor will be more versatile and almost as good at the plate. Bake in a few years of inflation and Taylor could aim for a few extra million per year. Because of his age, and assuming no lingering questions about his health, maybe he gets five years instead of four. So, does some team go to five years, $80MM? That certainly feels high, especially given that DJ LeMahieu just got $90MM from the Yankees before this season. (LeMahieu is also older and less versatile than Taylor but was coming off a tremendous two-year stretch at the plate.)
Perhaps the qualifying offer knocks that down some and Taylor actually can’t quite get to Zobrist levels. Maybe this is a bit too optimistic in Taylor’s favor. Still, despite his recent slump, Taylor’s wRC+ is currently sitting at 118 for the season. Baez is at 121. Trevor Story is at 99. Taylor might not be as much of a household name as those two, but his earning power might be closer to them than you think.
2021-22 Qualifying Offer Candidates
With the trade deadline in the rearview mirror and a little more than six weeks remaining in the regular season, plenty of front offices are turning their attention towards the upcoming offseason. The first notable decision for many clubs will be to decide whether to tag one or more of their top impending free agents with a qualifying offer.
As a reminder, the qualifying offer is a one-year contract offer teams can make to certain impending free agents. The precise value of the QO has yet to be calculated, but it’s determined as the average salary of the game’s 125 highest-paid players. Last season, the QO value was set at $18.9MM. If the player accepts the offer, he returns to his current team on that one-year deal. If he rejects, his previous team would receive draft pick compensation should he sign elsewhere.
Last season, six players (George Springer, Trevor Bauer, J.T. Realmuto, DJ LeMahieu, Kevin Gausman and Marcus Stroman) received qualifying offers. Gausman and Stroman accepted the QO, while Realmuto and LeMahieu re-signed with their current clubs as free agents. The Reds and Astros received compensatory picks (used on Jay Allen and Chayce McDermott, respectively) when Bauer and Springer departed.
The collective bargaining agreement prohibits a player from being tagged with a qualifying offer multiple times in his career. (A list of every active big leaguer who has previously received a QO is available here). Similarly, in order to be eligible, the player must have spent the entire preceding season on the same team. Players traded midseason cannot be tagged with a QO.
With the majority of the 2021 season in the books, we can take a look at the upcoming free agent class to predict which players might wind up receiving qualifying offer this winter.
Locks
- Carlos Correa, Freddie Freeman, Clayton Kershaw, Robbie Ray, Carlos Rodón, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Trevor Story
This group is fairly straightforward, as there’s very little chance any of these players would accept a qualifying offer. Correa, Seager and Freeman all have MVP-caliber upside and are locks to pull in long-term deals this winter. Semien didn’t receive a QO from the A’s after a down year in 2020, took a pillow contract with the Jays for almost the value of the QO ($18MM), and has essentially replicated his 2019 form that earned him a third place finish in AL MVP voting. He should find a big multi-year deal this time around.
Story is having a bit of a down year, but there’s no doubt the Rockies will make him a qualifying offer after not trading him at the deadline. Nick Groke of the Athletic wrote this week that Colorado hasn’t given up hope of convincing him to sign a long-term extension, but that seems unlikely given Story’s own bewilderment he wasn’t moved to a contender this summer. Whether Story is willing to return to Denver or not, he’ll receive a QO.
Kershaw, Ray and Rodón will be among the top pitchers on the market. Kershaw has spent the past couple months on the injured list due to forearm soreness, but he’s expected back in September and is in the midst of another fantastic season. So long as he’s healthy, he’s a lock for a QO. Ray and Rodón both had to settle for one-year deals after poor 2020 seasons, but they’ve each been among the best pitchers in the American League this year.
Likely
- Michael Conforto, Jon Gray, Yusei Kikuchi, Eduardo Rodríguez, Noah Syndergaard, Chris Taylor, Justin Verlander
Over the past two seasons, Taylor has somewhat quietly been one of the game’s top 25 qualified hitters by measure of wRC+ and he’s versatile enough to cover any non-catcher position on the diamond. He’s not a true everyday player at any one spot and he’s making contact at a career-worst rate this season, so he falls just short of being an absolute lock for a QO. But the Dodgers would be as willing as any team to shoulder a significant one-year salary were Taylor to accept, and his body of work should be sufficient to warrant a multi-year deal regardless.
The Mets’ players in this group are two of the more interesting free agents in the class. Conforto entered the season looking like a lock for a QO and seemingly having a chance at landing nine figures with a strong platform year. He missed a month with injury, though, and hasn’t made anywhere near his typical level of impact at the plate. He’s shown some life over the past few weeks, and between his track record and age (28), Conforto still seems a good bet to land a long-term deal.
Syndergaard was a top-of-the-rotation starter at his peak, but he hasn’t pitched since 2019 because of Tommy John surgery. He’s eyeing a September return — likely in relief, given his dwindling time to build up arm strength — and his late-season form will obviously be critical to his market. The Mets should run one of the higher payrolls in the league, and Syndergaard has the upside to be an ace if healthy, so New York still seems more likely than not to make the offer.
Similarly, Verlander has essentially missed two full seasons because of his own Tommy John procedure. That’s a scary development for a pitcher who’ll be 39 on Opening Day 2022, but he was still every bit an ace when we last saw him in 2018-19. The Astros are a win-now club that runs high payrolls, so Verlander accepting a QO wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. If he declines and signs elsewhere, Houston would recoup some much-needed draft compensation after losing their past two first-round picks as punishment for the sign-stealing scandal.
Colorado reportedly showed even less interest in trading Gray than they did with Story at the deadline. There’s apparently mutual interest about working out a multi-year extension, and the QO could serve as a temporary measure to keep Gray in Denver while the Rockies and Gray’s representatives work on a long-term deal.
Rodríguez has bounced back to take the ball every fifth day this year after a scary bout with myocarditis cost him all of 2020. His ERA’s pushing 5.00, but his peripherals are far better than that bottom line run prevention and the southpaw has an established track record of mid-rotation production.
The Mariners are facing a difficult decision regarding Kikuchi, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored last month. Seattle must decide whether to exercise a package deal of four successive club options at $16.5MM apiece (essentially a four-year, $66MM extension) this winter. If the Mariners don’t exercise their four-year option, Kikuchi has a $13MM player option to return to Seattle for 2022. If both parties decline their ends, the 30-year-old would hit free agency this offseason, although the M’s could then tag Kikuchi with a qualifying offer.
Given that Kikuchi will only be a free agent if he passes on a $13MM player option, the Mariners would likely make him a QO worth a few million dollars more if it comes to that — either with the expectation he’ll decline in search of a longer-term deal, or with the hope he accepts and Seattle can keep him in the fold next season without committing themselves to the additional three years of guaranteed money.
Possible
The Giants have plenty of payroll space this offseason and seem likely to try to keep most of this season’s core together. Belt has been one of the sport’s most productive offensive players on a rate basis over the past two years. But he’s also 33 years old, has a long injury history and is striking out at the highest rate of his career.
San Francisco bought low on DeSclafani over the winter after he had a tough 2020 season with the Reds. He’s bounced back to post a very strong 3.26 ERA, although his peripherals are closer to average and he’s benefitted from opponents’ .257 batting average on balls in play. The Giants will likely see 4/5 of their starting rotation hit free agency this winter, so they could be eager to bring DeSclafani back, even if that comes via a lofty 2022 salary.
Morton has had another productive season in his first year as a Brave, but his previous two teams (the Astros in 2018 and the Rays in 2020) let him reach free agency without making a qualifying offer despite his consistently strong track record. That’s presumably due to concerns about his past injury history and age. He’ll turn 38 this winter and might check his potential earning power by limiting himself to teams in the Southeastern part of the country — as he reportedly did last offseason. That could inspire the Braves to pass on a QO, but Morton continually reels off above-average performances, and this is an Atlanta front office that has been eager to dole out hefty single-year salaries for key veteran upgrades in recent years.
Iglesias looks like the top impending free agent reliever (assuming the White Sox exercise their option over Craig Kimbrel). He’s sporting an ERA under 3.00 for the fifth time in his six seasons since moving to the bullpen, and he’s never had a single-season SIERA above 3.55. Home runs have been an issue, but Iglesias gets above-average results year in and year out and has some of the best strikeout and walk numbers in the game in 2021.
Long Shots
The Giants hold a $22MM club option (with a $3MM buyout) over Posey’s services for next season. If the front office is willing to commit him a significant salary, they’ll just exercise the option rather than going the QO route. Indeed, they’re reportedly planning to do exactly that (or to potentially pursue a multi-year extension with the franchise icon). Either way, there’s no real reason to involve the qualifying offer here.
Canha would be a very plausible qualifying offer candidate on many teams. He’s been a well above-average hitter and overall performer three years running and is generally one of the game’s more underrated players. The A’s, though, didn’t make a QO to either of Semien or Liam Hendriks last season. Canha’s a Bay Area native, and his age (33 in February) will cap the length of offers he receives from other clubs. Given that, it’s not hard to envision him accepting a QO if offered. The A’s, who perennially run low payrolls and will have a loaded class of arbitration-eligible players this winter, don’t seem likely to take that risk.
Wainwright has had a fantastic 2021 season, and the Cardinals figure to be motivated to keep the franchise icon in St. Louis in some capacity. But that also looked to be true after his strong 2020 campaign, and Wainwright only wound up landing a one-year, $8MM deal. He’d be well-deserved in demanding a raise over that sum to return next season, but it remains to be seen if the Cardinals would be willing to chance more than doubling his salary — particularly if they feel Wainwright’s motivated to remain in St. Louis rather than pursue the highest possible offers in free agency.
Kluber signed an $11MM deal with the Yankees last offseason after back-to-back seasons wrecked by injury. He pitched well through ten starts but has been out since late May with a shoulder strain. Kluber’s nearing a return to action, but his missing nearly three months only adds to prior concerns about his ability to handle a significant workload at this stage of his career.
Kim, García and Wood are all having strong 2021 seasons and could plausibly land solid multi-year deals this winter. Each has enough question marks that their teams don’t seem especially likely to offer a salary in the range of the qualifying offer, though. Kim doesn’t miss many bats; García has had extreme highs and lows throughout his career; Wood has a checkered injury history. García’s contract contains a $12MM club option that vests into a mutual option if he reaches 492 plate appearances this season. If that option doesn’t vest, the Brewers would obviously have no incentive to decline the option only to make a qualifying offer at a higher price point.
Opt-Out Clauses
Each of Arenado (six years, $179MM), Castellanos (two years, $34MM) and Martinez (one year, $19.35MM) has significant guaranteed money remaining on their contracts but can opt out of those deals this winter. Arenado and Castellanos would be locks to reject qualifying offers if they trigger their opt-out provisions, since they’d be foregoing bigger guarantees to test the market.
Martinez’s player option is of similar enough value to the projected value of the qualifying offer that he could plausibly trigger the opt-out but then accept a QO. Even if that proved to be the case, the Red Sox would probably be happy to keep him in the middle of the lineup for another season.
Ineligible
- Javier Báez (midseason trade), Kris Bryant (midseason trade), Alex Cobb (previous QO), Nelson Cruz (previous QO/midseason trade), Danny Duffy (midseason trade), Eduardo Escobar (midseason trade), Kevin Gausman (previous QO), Kendall Graveman (midseason trade), Zack Greinke (previous QO), Kenley Jansen (previous QO), Starling Marte (midseason trade), Anthony Rizzo (midseason trade), Max Scherzer (previous QO/midseason trade), Kyle Schwarber (midseason trade), Marcus Stroman (previous QO)
NL West Notes: Dickerson, Belt, Taylor, Weaver, Marte
The Giants activated outfielder Alex Dickerson off the 10-day injured list prior to today’s game with the Pirates, and Dickerson went 1-for-5 with a single in the 4-1 San Francisco victory. Dickerson only missed the minimum 10 days while recovering from a right shoulder impingement, and he’ll look to get on track at the plate after hitting only .213/.276/.338 over his first 87 plate appearances. Dickerson was a much more productive hitter in 2019-20, batting a somewhat under-the-radar .286/.350/.529 in 360 PA, all but 19 of which came in a Giants uniform.
Dickerson’s return could help a lineup hampered by the continued absence of Brandon Belt, who was a late scratch for today’s game. Belt left Tuesday’s game due to left side tightness and has made only two appearances since (one as a starter, and one as a pinch-hitter). It’s possible an IL stint might be necessary for Belt, who has impressed with a .233/.360/.495 slash line and eight home runs in his first 125 PA of the season.
More from the NL West…
- Chris Taylor was a late scratch from the Dodgers‘ lineup today, as manager Dave Roberts told reporters (including Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register) that Taylor felt some wrist soreness while taking pre-game swings in the batting cage. With Cody Bellinger still on the IL, the versatile Taylor has mostly played center field this season, while also seeing action at both corner outfield spots, second base, and shortstop. Taylor has also been an offensive force no matter his spot on the diamond, hitting .288/.425/.483 with four homers in 146 PA. While Bellinger may be close to a return, Corey Seager and AJ Pollock were both placed on the injured list within the last two days, so the last thing the Dodgers need is for Taylor to also miss time. Roberts said Taylor is already receiving treatment on his wrist and more will be known on Monday afternoon.
- The injury-plagued Diamondbacks had another scare today when Luke Weaver left today’s start due to right shoulder discomfort. Speaking to The Athletic’s Zach Buchanan (Twitter links) and other reporters after the game, Weaver downplayed the issue, saying that he thinks the shoulder problem can be corrected with a change to his pitching mechanics. The righty is “pretty confident” he won’t have to miss his next start, currently slated against the Rockies on Friday. It has been an inconsistent year for Weaver, as the Statcast metrics haven’t liked his work and he has posted a 4.50 ERA over 40 innings. Counting today’s outing, however, Weaver has tossed 10 1/3 shutout innings over his last two starts, so the right-hander may have turned a corner.
- Ketel Marte will begin a Triple-A rehab assignment on Monday, Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo told MLB.com’s Jake Rill and other reporters. Marte only played six games for the D’Backs before hitting the injured list with a right hamstring strain back on April 8. Due to the long absence, it isn’t yet clear how long Marte will be at Triple-A Reno, though he has been working out with the Diamondbacks and also played a six-inning simulated game at the team’s alternate training site. The 18-23 D’Backs are trying to stay afloat despite several notable injuries in the last few days alone, and the return of their star Marte would be an enormous boost to the club.
NL West Notes: Taylor, Padres, Myers, Giants, Luciano
The Dodgers may not have a key player available for today’s Game 6 against the Braves, as Chris Taylor suffered an ankle injury in last night’s game. Taylor suffered the injury while chasing down a Freddie Freeman double in the eighth inning of Game 5, and Taylor managed to finish the inning before being lifted for a pinch-hitter in the ninth. Manager Dave Roberts told reporters that Taylor would undergo tests to determine the severity of the problem.
It hasn’t been a great postseason for Taylor, who has hit only .161/.257/.226 over 35 plate appearances during Los Angeles’ playoff run. Still, Taylor’s regular-season performance and his versatility (he has been used as a second baseman and left fielder this October) make him a valuable roster asset, and it’s not like Taylor hasn’t had success in the playoffs — he was the 2017 NLCS MVP. If Taylor can’t play in Game 6, the Dodgers could turn to Max Muncy or Enrique Hernandez to play second base. The Dodgers would also be reduced to a three-man bench, as they used 15 of their 28 roster spots for the NLCS on pitchers. [UPDATE: Taylor isn’t in the Game 6 lineup, but Roberts told Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times and other reporters that Taylor is available off the bench and is “moving around much better today. It’s better than he expected.”]
More from around the NL West…
- Several Padres-related topics are addressed by The Athletic’s Dennis Lin as part of a reader mailbag piece, with a particular focus on San Diego’s offseason plans. Lin doesn’t think the Padres will make a play for Trevor Bauer this winter, and re-signing Jurickson Profar could be difficult since his asking price may be beyond the Friars’ comfort zone. “The team isn’t interested in paying handsomely for a secondary option,” Lin writes, though Profar ended up being essentially an everyday player in 2020.
- Of course, more regular playing time could emerge for a player like Profar if the Padres were to trade Wil Myers. Lin figures San Diego will again look into trades for Myers, whose once-negligible trade value has been boosted by an outstanding 2020 season (.288/.353/.606 with 15 homers in 218 PA). The $41MM that Myers is owed through the 2022 season may still make a trade hard to complete, though naturally the Padres wouldn’t mind keeping Myers if he keeps producing as he did this year. At the outskirts of the Padres’ roster, Lin thinks Francisco Mejia, Joey Lucchesi and Trey Wingenter could also be trade candidates.
- In a Giants mailbag, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle believes shortstop Marco Luciano is the Giants’ only truly “untouchable” prospect in trade talks. This doesn’t mean that other highly-touted youngsters like Joey Bart or Heliot Ramos are anywhere near being available, but rather that San Francisco perceives Luciano as “the main driver for a winning era.” Luciano emerged as a favorite of top-100 prospect lists (ranked 14th by Fangraphs, 17th by Baseball America, 29th by MLB.com) after a big breakout in last year’s Arizona Fall League, though the 19-year-old has only one official year of pro ball under his belt. It remains to be seen if he’ll stay at shortstop or move to third base or the outfield in the future, but the 19-year-old Luciano’s batting potential has already drawn raves.
Remembering A Dodgers Heist
As a versatile defender and a capable offensive player, Chris Taylor has been one of many eminently useful members of the Dodgers’ roster since 2017. But Taylor’s career did not begin in ideal fashion. A fifth-round pick of the Mariners in 2012, Taylor peaked as Baseball America’s ninth-ranked M’s prospect in 2014, and though he reached the majors for the first time that year, it took him a few years to come into his own.
Taylor showed off almost zero pop early in his big league career, evidenced by his one home run and .076 isolated power number across 318 plate appearances through 2016. Taylor had plenty of high moments in the Mariners’ minor league system, where he hit .314/.401/.455 in 1,856 PA, but could only muster a measly line of .240/296/.296 (71 wRC+) in the majors. Consequently, general manager Jerry Dipoto – who did not draft Taylor – gave him up in June 2016, sending him to the Dodgers for right-hander Zach Lee.
At the time of the Seattle-LA deal, MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk wrote, “Given Taylor’s impressive minor league numbers, it’s not out of the question that he could unlock some of that hitting prowess in the bigs.”
Mark couldn’t have been more right. Taylor saw little time with the Dodgers in his first year with the organization (just 62 PA), but he became a regular for the club the next season and has been an integral part of the perennial contenders’ roster since then. Going back to 2017, Taylor has slashed .268/.340/.468 (116 wRC+) with 50 homers and 9.6 fWAR, all while making relatively minimal salaries. Taylor’s still under affordable control through 2021, so as someone who can hit and play just about every position (he has lined up at second, third, short and all three outfield spots in LA), it should be a no-brainer for the Dodgers to keep him in the fold for at least the next couple years.
While the Dodgers struck gold on Taylor, the Mariners got nothing out of this swap. Lee entered the pro ranks as the 28th overall pick of the Dodgers in 2010, deciding to try for a baseball career instead of playing football at LSU. Signing the former quarterback cost the Dodgers a franchise-record bonus of $5.25MM, and Lee lived up to the hype for a little while. He was among Baseball America’s top 100 prospects three times (2011, ’12 and ’14), but Lee had an up-and-down minor league run as a Dodger and made just one appearance with the big club. In a 15-2 loss to the Mets in July 2015, Lee yielded seven earned runs on 11 hits in 4 2/3 innings. That was the only time he took the mound as a Dodger.
So what has become of Lee since the Mariners acquired him? Well, he had a fleeting run in the Seattle org, which lost him on waivers to San Diego in December 2016. Lee has since been with three other franchises – the Rays, Mets and Athletics (the A’s signed him to a minors pact this past offseason). He’s still just 28, and as a former high-end prospect, it may be too soon to give up on Lee. However, as the owner of a 5.41 ERA over 625 1/3 innings in Triple-A ball, it seems unlikely he’ll amount to much in the majors. Considering how Lee’s pro career has gone thus far, the Dodgers have to be thrilled with the return they got for him.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Quick Hits: Lindor, Galvis, C. Taylor, Olympics
As recently as mid-February, Indians shortstop Francisco Lindor called Cleveland “home” and expressed a willingness to stay with the club. No extension has come together yet, but Indians president Chris Antonetti said Tuesday that “neither side has given up trying,” per Paul Hoynes of cleveland.com. However, Lindor noted he has an “early March” deadline on contract talks, so it appears the Indians are running out of time to lock him up in the near future (if they haven’t already). Odds have long been against the Indians finding a way to keep Lindor from hitting free agency when his team control runs out after 2021, as the 26-year-old is on pace to wind up with one of the largest contracts in the history of the game if and when he reaches the open market.
- Reds shortstop Freddy Galvis suffered “a quad strain during a baserunning drill,” according to manager David Bell (via Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer). Galvis underwent an MRI, but the severity of the injury isn’t known at this time. The Reds looked ripe for an upgrade at short during the offseason, but they instead stuck with Galvis, whom they claimed from Toronto last August and then retained by way of a $5.5MM club option during the winter. Now, if Galvis’ injury is severe enough to cost him regular-season time, it’s unclear who will fill in at short for the Reds. Alex Blandino and Kyle Farmer might be the most logical in-house choices, but neither brings much experience to the table.
- Dodgers utility player Chris Taylor‘s out of action for the moment after taking a pitch off the back of the left shoulder, Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register tweets. There’s no indication that it’s anything but a minor injury for Taylor, whom a fractured left forearm limited to 124 games in 2019. The versatile Taylor was a highly valuable player for the Dodgers from 2017-18, but his numbers dipped last season during a campaign in which he batted .262/.333/.462 with 1.7 fWAR in 414 plate appearances.
- Major League Baseball and the MLBPA reached a deal with the world baseball governing body that will allow minor leaguers to participate in this summer’s Olympic Games, the Yonhap News Agency relays. The agreement will give national teams the right to select minor leaguers from MLB teams’ 40-man rosters to participate in the Olympics, but anyone on a 26-man roster will be protected. That means there could be some familiar names to baseball fans in the Olympics, which will include the sport for the first time in 12 years.
Dodgers Reach Two-Year Arbitration Deal With Chris Taylor
The Dodgers have avoided arbitration with utilityman Chris Taylor, per a team announcement. He’ll ink a two-year deal that resolves his arb salaries for both 2020 and 2021, providing respective payouts of $5.6MM and $7.8MM, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter).
Taylor had been headed for an arbitration hearing. He was seeking a $5.8MM salary, with the Dodgers offering $5.25MM in return. Instead, the sides saw eye to eye on an agreement that provides Taylor some security and gives the club cost certainty.
The 29-year-old Taylor hasn’t quite performed to the level of his breakout 2017 season, but has remained a highly valuable contributor for the Dodgers in the ensuing two seasons. All told, he carries a cumulative .268/.340/.468 batting line since the start of the 2017 season.
Taylor adds value on the bases and in the field, where he’s especially useful given his ability to handle every non-battery position. Obviously the Dodgers foresee another productive campaign from the former fifth-round pick.