Jameson Taillon

Forecasting The 2022-23 Qualifying Offers: Pitchers

By Mark Polishuk | August 14, 2022 at 10:15am CDT

Yesterday, we took a look at the pending free agent position players who could be candidates to receive a qualifying offer this winter. Now, let’s turn our attention to what free agent pitchers might be in line for a QO, with the caveat that players can only receive one qualifying offer in their careers, and a player must spend the entire 2022 season with his team to be eligible.

Easy Calls: Chris Bassitt (Mets), Jacob deGrom (Mets), Edwin Diaz (Mets), Nathan Eovaldi (Red Sox), Carlos Rodon (Giants)

DeGrom has already said that he is opting out of the final guaranteed season of his contract, leaving $30.5MM on the table in 2023 to seek out a longer-term pact. Rodon is also sure to opt out of the final year (and $22.5MM) of his two-year contact with San Francisco, as Rodon earned his opt-out by triggering a vesting option at the 110-innings threshold.

Even with Eovaldi’s injury history, retaining him for one year at roughly $19MM seems like a pretty good outcome for the Red Sox, particularly given all the other question marks in Boston’s rotation. So there’s little risk for the Sox in issuing Eovaldi a QO, though it would seem like Eovaldi will probably reject it.

Face-of-the-Franchise Veterans: Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers), Adam Wainwright (Cardinals)

With Kershaw considering retirement last winter, the Dodgers opted against issuing him a qualifying offer as a free agent, as a nod towards giving the longtime ace all the time he needed to make a decision on his future. It stands to reason that the Dodgers will take the same path this winter, unless Kershaw gives them advance notice of his plans for 2023….though in that scenario, the two sides might just work out an extension before free agency even officially opens.

The same could be true of Wainwright, who has signed one-year contracts to rejoin the Cardinals in each of the last four offseasons. In three of those cases, Wainwright inked his new deal either just after the start of the free agent period or before it altogether, so it’s safe to assume the two sides will work out a new pact without the QO coming into play. Of course, this assumes that Wainwright will come back for an 18th Major League season, but even as his 41st birthday approaches, the right-hander is still going strong.

Easy Contract-Option Calls: Carlos Carrasco (Mets), Sonny Gray (Twins), Aaron Nola (Phillies)

These starters could be free agents if their club options are declined, and thus are technically qualifying-offer candidates. However, the trio are all virtual locks to have their options exercised, and their respective options are all worth less than the projected cost of the qualifying offer.

Borderline Cases: Tyler Anderson (Dodgers), Mike Clevinger (Padres), Zach Eflin (Phillies), Sean Manaea (Padres), Martin Perez (Rangers), Jameson Taillon (Yankees), Taijuan Walker (Mets)

Walker is yet another Mets entry on this list, as he is very likely to decline his $6MM player option for 2023 and instead take a $3MM buyout into free agency. Advanced metrics paint a less-flattering picture of Walker’s performance than his bottom-line numbers, and he has battled both injury and consistency problems over his career, though Walker has been relatively healthy in his two seasons in New York. It would seem likely that the Mets will issue Walker a QO, and 2022 has been enough of a platform year for the righty that he will probably turn the qualifying offer down.

The Padres are another team with multiple QO candidates, as while Joe Musgrove was kept off the open market with a $100MM extension, Manaea and Clevinger remain. Due in part to two particularly disastrous outings against the Dodgers, Manaea’s ERA is an ungainly 4.76 over 119 innings. Clevinger has a solid 3.47 ERA in his return from Tommy John surgery, but that is only over 70 innings, due to both his TJ rehab as well as a triceps strain and a week on the COVID-related IL.

Right now, Manaea and Clevinger could possibly be candidates to accept a qualifying offer, if they don’t feel they have enough of a platform to maximize their free agent market. Solid performances over the final month and a half of the season would make it an easier decision for either pitcher to reject a QO, and easier for the Padres to decide whether or not to issue the offers. San Diego could be facing a third consecutive year of luxury-tax overage in 2023, especially if Manaea and/or Clevinger are on the books for a $19MM-ish salary.

Eflin is another player who needs to post some solid numbers down the stretch, but first and foremost, the Philadelphia right-hander just needs to get healthy. Eflin has been on the IL since late June due to a kneecap bruise, and his continued knee soreness is a red flag for a pitcher who has undergone multiple knee surgeries in the past. When healthy, Eflin has been a quietly solid pitcher for the Phillies over the last five seasons, yet his lingering knee problems are certainly a concern. There is the interesting wrinkle of a $15MM mutual option between Eflin and the Phils for 2023, and while mutual options are rarely exercised by both parties, this could be a rare situation where it would make sense for both the player and the team. Paying $15MM for Eflin would also represent some risk for the Phillies, but it would be less than the value of a qualifying offer.

After a great start to the season, Taillon’s numbers have come back to earth a bit, with a 3.95 ERA over 120 2/3 innings. A below-average strikeout pitcher, Taillon has relied on excellent control and spin rates on his fastball and curve to limit damage, and he also doesn’t allow too much hard contact. Perhaps most importantly given Taillon’s injury history, he has been healthy in 2022, which should make offseason suitors more open to giving him a longer-term contract. For now, it seems probable that the Yankees would issue Taillon a QO rather than let him potentially walk away for nothing in free agency.

The idea of Anderson or Perez as QO candidates would’ve seemed quite farfetched heading into the season, yet the two veteran left-handers are each enjoying career years that resulted in All-Star appearances. Their underwhelming career histories could prevent the Dodgers and Rangers from issuing qualifying offers, since either pitcher would likely take the big payday, and $19MM is a lot to invest in basically one season of evidence (even for a Dodgers team that is comfortable blowing past luxury tax thresholds).

However, it would certainly make sense for either club to pursue re-signings, even if a qualifying offer isn’t involved. The Rangers have already been vocal about their desire to retain Perez, so it is quite possible he signs an extension before even hitting the open market.

Quick Hits: Bregman, Taillon, Van Horne

By James Hicks and Sean Bavazzano | January 14, 2022 at 8:08pm CDT

Astros third baseman Alex Bregman was cleared to hit today for the first time since undergoing surgery on his right wrist in November, reports Mark Berman of Houston’s Fox26 (Twitter link with video). Though he played through it, Bregman injured his wrist in September, an issue that came to light only when teammate Carlos Correa told Sports Illustrated’s Stephanie Apstein about it during the World Series. The extent to which the injury played a role in Bregman’s postseason struggles isn’t entirely clear, but it’s likely to have had at least some effect given his .217/.304/.300 postseason line across 69 plate appearances, including a meager .095/.200/.143 in 25 trips to the plate during the Astros’ World Series loss to the Braves.

The injury came at the end of what was a forgettable season by Bregman’s high standards. After following a second-place MVP finish in 2019 with a solid but unspectacular 2020, Bregman missed the first two months of the 2021 season with a quadriceps injury and saw a major dip in his power numbers, posting only a .422 slugging percentage against a .507 career mark (and a top-notch .592 in 2019).

Some other baseball tidbits from around the league…

Yankees pitcher Jameson Taillon discussed his ongoing ankle rehab with former Yankees workhorse David Cone on the latter’s podcast this week. The 30-year-old Taillon once again acknowledged that he remains about a month behind his typical offseason throwing program, jiving with the report he gave last December. More encouragingly however, is the right-hander’s claim that he isn’t feeling any lingering pain from his surgically repaired ankle. While his current regimen consists of throwing 3-4 times a week at much less than full, mid-90’s velocity, this marks another positive step forward in the right-hander’s rehab process. Taillon was a league average arm last year, sporting a 4.30 ERA in 144 plus innings, but has demonstrated the ability to be more than that throughout his career. More positive news as Taillon ramps back up will be welcome for a Yankees club that has a number of solid rotation options but only a few that don’t come with health concerns of their own.
Per a report from Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald, longtime Marlins radio announcer Dave Van Horne announced that he is “essentially retiring” after declining the team’s offer to return to the organization in 2022 in a reduced capacity. The 82-year-old Van Horne retires after 53 years of broadcasting at the major league level. After a 33-year tenure broadcasting for the Montreal Expos, Van Horne pivoted to an upstart Marlins team at the end of 2000. In his lengthy career, the veteran sportscaster called three perfect games, thirteen no-hitters, narrated the 2003 Marlins successful World Series run, and was awarded the Ford C. Frick Award from the Baseball Hall of Fame in recognition of his broadcasting contributions. We at MLBTR extend a hearty congratulations to Van Horne for an illustrious career.

Latest On Jameson Taillon

By Mark Polishuk | December 18, 2021 at 4:47pm CDT

After undergoing ankle surgery on October 28, Jameson Taillon isn’t yet sure about his recovery timeline, the Yankees right-hander told The Athletic’s Lindsey Adler. Taillon’s procedure fixed a torn longus tendon in his right ankle, and since this “is such a rare injury for pitchers,” Taillon said he doesn’t know exactly how his offseason rehab will play out.

“We have a rough timeline of when I can start really playing catch, which would be sometime in like mid to late January,” Taillon said. “But even the doctor was kind of like, ’You guys are the pitching experts.’ A typical offseason throwing progression would be like six to eight weeks of playing catch and then four weeks of bullpens. So basically everything I’m doing is kind of a month behind, but I’m not really sure where that will leave us at the end.”

In the event that the “month behind” projection is accurate, Taillon would seem likely to miss some games at the start of the season, as he’d need some extra work to make up for the lost Spring Training time. As he noted, however, everything seems quite fluid at this point, so it still be several weeks before Taillon or the Yankees know when exactly the righty might be ready to pitch.

The lockout prevents Taillon from communicating with team personnel, and “the Yankees’ strength department wrote out a program for me, but they don’t get to see me every day, so that side of it is kind of weird.” That said, Taillon said he is continuing his recovery at New York’s Hospital for Special Surgery, and has already been out of a walking boot for around 10 days.

Taillon also observed that his own past injury history has already made him quite familiar with rehab processes in general. A right flexor tendon strain and a subsequent Tommy John surgery sidelined for all of 2020, and limited him to only 37 1/3 innings in 2019. This was the second TJ surgery of Taillon’s career, and he also missed time in 2017 recovering from surgery for testicular cancer.

With this in mind, it was no small feat that Taillon was able to toss 144 1/3 innings for the Yankees last season, marking the second-highest workload of his five MLB seasons. Taillon posted a 4.30 ERA/4.33 SIERA with an above-average 7.3% walk rate and some impressive spin rates on his fastball and curve, though his fastball velocity was slightly down (to 94mph) from the 95mph he averaged from 2016-18. His hard-contact numbers were also down, and the result was ultimately what Taillon described as a “very up and down” season, as “it felt like my hot streak was really hot and my cold streak was really cold, which really isn’t like me.”

He remained healthy until his ankle issue arose in early September, though after a three-week absence, Taillon was able to return from the injured list and make two more appearances in key late-season games. Over a pair of abbreviated starts, Taillon allowed one earned run in 5 2/3 IP, helping New York to two critical victories.

The Yankees are no strangers to pitching injuries, and while the club obviously hopes Taillon is ready sooner rather than later, the Bronx Bombers have some rotation depth on hand. Beyond ace Gerrit Cole, Jordan Montgomery, Nestor Cortes Jr., Luis Severino, and Domingo German are lined up for starts, swingman Michael King can help in both the rotation and the bullpen, and youngsters Luis Gil, Clarke Schmidt, and Deivi Garcia are all waiting in the wings. The Yankees could also certainly still add to this group via trades or free agents once the lockout is over, and made one noteworthy push for a starter already this winter, reportedly offering Justin Verlander a one-year, $25MM deal before Verlander re-signed with the Astros.

Cashman Discusses Yankees’ Offseason, Provides Injury Updates

By James Hicks | October 19, 2021 at 2:27pm CDT

During the press conference announcing the return of Aaron Boone as manager, Yankees GM Brian Cashman offered some insight into the club’s offseason plans. Cashman was open with regard to the Yankees’ needs, telling reporters he’ll need to offer Boone more flexibility in lineup construction (Twitter links via The Athletic’s Lindsey Adler).

Most notably, the GM addressed the club’s need at shortstop directly and candidly, stating that “[s]hortstop is an area of need. We have to address it.” With one of the most highly regarded classes of shortstops in free agent history about to hit the market, the big-market, big-spending Yankees are a near certainty to feature prominently in the offseason rumor mill.

As MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand and ESPN’s Marly Rivera further noted, Cashman broke several pieces of news on the injury front: starter Jameson Taillon will undergo ankle surgery on October 28 and is expected to be out for five months. DJ LeMahieu, who underperformed expectations after a stellar 2020, has had a procedure to address a sports hernia that will keep him out roughly eight weeks. Cashman also noted that outfielder Aaron Hicks, out since a May wrist surgery, should be ready to resume baseball activities by December and hopes to play winter ball. Assuming all goes to plan, LeMahieu’s surgery shouldn’t have an impact on his availability to start the 2022 season, but Taillon’s timetable suggests he’ll only be ready to return to game action around the end of Spring Training, putting his availability for the Opening Day roster in question.

While Cashman suggested that he hopes to add more athleticism and contact skills to a lineup that had the sixth highest K% (24.5%) in the majors in 2021, Yankees fans have already begun to salivate over the forthcoming free agent market. All three of Corey Seager, Carlos Correa, and Trevor Story would bring a significant potential for star-level production to the Bronx — as might Marcus Semien or the enigmatic Javier Baez, potentially — and each would offer a significant defensive upgrade over incumbent Gleyber Torres.

Any from that group could represent an upgrade on both sides for the Bombers, but how Cashman views them remains to be seen. Though none are poor with the glove, Correa and Story (who have compiled 68 and 69 career DRS at short, respectively) have been a cut above the others. Correa will be 27 next season, giving him an edge in the age department, although Seager isn’t far behind as he heads into his age-28 campaign. Both Story and Baez will play next year at 29, while Semien — who played second base in Toronto this season but has a long track record at shortstop — will play next season at 31.

Though the Yankees are regularly players at the top of the free agent market, payroll implications may also play into their approach, as might the particulars of the forthcoming collective bargaining agreement (presuming, of course, that one is forthcoming). The club’s payroll came in just below the luxury tax threshold of $210MM in 2021, which may allow them to pay a lower rate should they become tax-payers again in 2022, but the only significant salary to come off the books is Corey Kluber’s ($11MM in 2021).

With a number of players set for significant raises in arbitration (most prominently Aaron Judge, though both club and player may prefer to reach an extension agreement), there’s not likely to be much room below the tax threshold for splashy free agent signings. Owner Hal Steinbrenner has not declared any plans to cross the threshold, but the club probably dipped below in 2021 for a reason. Paired with Cashman’s assertion that the Yankees will be “open to anything and everything” (Twitter link via SNY’s Andy Martino), the stage is at least ostensibly set for an active winter.

Following a season that saw them settle for a wild card spot and get bounced from the playoffs by the rival Red Sox, Cashman’s mixed tone is no surprise. Per Rivera, the longstanding GM described the 2021 Yanks remarkable inconsistency, stating that while they were at times “unstoppable,” they were at others “unwatchable.” As MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch relays, Cashman addressed fan disappointment directly with the “obvious” admonition that “we want more. We expect more.”

Injuries clearly played a role, but poor performance also loomed large. Among players with more than 100 plate appearances, only Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Luke Voit, and Anthony Rizzo (acquired from the Cubs at the deadline) posted a wRC+ over 100 while wearing pinstripes. The club’s pitching fared somewhat better but was also bitten by the injury bug, with only Gerrit Cole, Jordan Montgomery, and Taillon notching 20 or more starts and potential high-end righty Luis Severino logging only six innings across four appearances as he made his way back from February 2020 Tommy John surgery. With Kluber out and Taillon a question mark, the club will likely look to dip into the pitching market for at least a depth piece or two.

How, exactly, Cashman will address these shortcomings remains an open question, but he did offer some insight into other offseason plans in the Bronx, including making clear that the club views Torres as a second baseman moving forward and is not entirely committed to Gary Sánchez as its everyday catcher.

Both players were disappointments in 2021. Torres posted a .259/.331/.366 line (down from career marks of .271/.340/.493 entering the year) and was eventually moved from shortstop to second basse. Sánchez regained some of the pop (23 home runs in 440 plate appearances) he’d shown from 2016-2019 alongside a career-high 52 walks but continued to struggle overall; he posted only a .307 OBP driven by a dismal .204 batting average and 27.5 K%. By DRS, both players also struggled with the glove, with Torres costing the Yankees nine runs in the field and Sánchez ten (while throwing out only 17% of would-be base-stealers).

With Torres permanently moving to the keystone and Rizzo’s future uncertain, LeMahieu will likely serve as the Yankees’ primary third baseman in 2022, perhaps sharing time there with Gio Urshela as well as Voit at first — assuming Voit is back in the next year. With the Yankees looking to add a shortstop to the mix, they’ll be left with four regulars (LeMahieu, Urshela, Voit, and Torres) for the other three infield spots. As none of this group has any significant experience in the outfield, a healthy roster might leave Boone facing something of a logjam for at-bats.

With Severino expected to offer quite a bit more on the mound in 2022, better health from Hicks and Voit and bounceback years from LeMahieu and Torres could already go a long way toward righting the ship for a club used to contending for titles year after year. Addressing their need at shortstop with a high-end signing that improves the team on both sides of the ball may go even further.

Injury Notes: Cousins, Andrus, Loaisiga, Taillon, Cisnero

By Mark Polishuk | September 25, 2021 at 6:37pm CDT

The Brewers placed righty Jake Cousins on the 10-day injured list due to a right biceps strain, as right-hander Miguel Sanchez was called up from Triple-A to take Cousins’ spot on the active roster. Speaking with The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Todd Rosiak and other reporters, Brewers GM Matt Arnold described Cousins’ injury as “nothing major,” adding that “We just want to be careful. It’s that time of year where we want to make sure he’s available in a playoff capacity.”

Considering that Cousins didn’t even make his MLB debut until June 21, his status as a potential postseason weapon is a sign of how well he has performed during his rookie season. Cousins has a 2.70 ERA over 30 relief innings, along with an eye-popping 35.2% strikeout rate — not far off his minor league numbers since joining the Milwaukee organization in 2019. While Cousins’ control hasn’t been nearly as impressive (15.2% walk rate), opponents haven’t been able to take much advantage, as Cousins has been carving up batters with his wipeout slider.

More on other injury situations around baseball…

While scoring the game-winning run in the Athletics’ 2-1 walkoff win over the Astros today, Elvis Andrus suffered a left ankle injury and had to be helped off the field. A’s manager Bob Melvin told MLB.com’s Martin Gallegos and other reporters that Andrus is getting x-rays after “feeling a pop” in his ankle. More will be known after Andrus has been tested, but it certainly looks like the 33-year-old’s season could be over, as the shortstop could be facing a serious injury. It has been a tough year overall for Andrus, as he has hit only .243/.294/.320 over 541 plate appearances in his first season in Oakland.
The Yankees could have Jonathan Loaisiga and Jameson Taillon back from the injured list during the club’s upcoming series against the Blue Jays, manager Aaron Boone told reporters (including ESPN’s Marly Rivera and Newsday’s Erik Boland). Loaisiga was sidelined on September 5 with a strained right rotator cuff, but the reliever has already thrown one bullpen session and will throw another soon, Boone said. Taillon has missed close to the game amount of time with an ankle injury, though he has been on a minor league rehab assignment and threw a bullpen today.
Jose Cisnero’s IL stint has lasted beyond the minimum 10 days, and Tigers manager A.J. Hinch told reporters (including Chris McCosky of The Detroit News) that while Cisnero hasn’t yet been shut down, a return this season is “improbable.” Cisnero has been hampered by swelling around the right elbow laceration that first sent him to the injured list back on September 14. If this is it for the right-hander in 2021, Cisnero will finish with a 3.65 ERA over 61 2/3 innings, marking his third consecutive year of solid work out of Detroit’s bullpen.

Yankees Activate Domingo German; Jameson Taillon Begins Rehab Assignment

By Anthony Franco | September 22, 2021 at 1:44pm CDT

The Yankees have reinstated right-hander Domingo Germán from the 10-day injured list. Outfielder Estevan Florial was optioned to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre in a corresponding move. Additionally, New York announced that Jameson Taillon will begin a minor league rehab assignment with Scranton this evening.

Germán returns after missing nearly two months due to shoulder inflammation. He’d been a reliable back-of-the-rotation option for the Yankees over the season’s first few months, tossing 97 innings of 4.45 ERA ball over 21 appearances (including 18 starts). The 29-year-old has posted solid strikeout and walk numbers, contributing to a more appealing 4.02 SIERA, but he’s been a little too prone to the home run ball.

While Germán served almost exclusively as a starter earlier this year, he seems likely to work from the bullpen for the stretch run. With the regular season dwindling, the Yankees sent Germán on a rather brief rehab assignment in which he made two appearances with the RailRiders. He topped out at 35 pitches in his last outing, so he seems likely to occupy a similar multi-inning relief role to the one Luis Severino took on last night.

Taillon has only been away from the club for two weeks because of a partially torn tendon in his right ankle. Given that shorter absence, it wouldn’t be a surprise if he’s back in the majors after a lone rehab start. Acquired from the Pirates over the offseason, Taillon has a 4.41 ERA/4.29 SIERA in his first year in the Bronx.

The Yankees enter play tonight half a game back in a jam-packed American League Wild Card race. After tonight’s series finale against the Rangers, they’ll play road series against the two clubs directly ahead of them in standings — the Red Sox and Blue Jays — before closing out the year at home against a Rays team that looks likely to have clinched the AL East by that point.

Yankees Place Jameson Taillon On Injured List, Designate Jonathan Davis

By Steve Adams and Anthony Franco | September 9, 2021 at 2:55pm CDT

The Yankees announced Thursday that they’ve placed right-hander Jameson Taillon on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to Tuesday, with a “right ankle tendon injury.” Right-hander Sal Romano was selected from Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre in his place, and outfielder Jonathan Davis was designated for assignment to open a spot on the 40-man roster for Romano.

Taillon suffered a partial tear in the tendon in his ankle, manager Aaron Boone told reporters (including Erik Boland of Newsday). While that certainly sounds ominous, Boone suggested there’s optimism Taillon could miss at little as one start before returning. It seems rookie Luis Gil could assume Taillon’s rotation spot for the time being, with Gerrit Cole, Jordan Montgomery, Corey Kluber and Nestor Cortes Jr. rounding out the starting staff.

Acquired from the Pirates over the winter, Taillon got out to a slow start to his Yankees’ tenure. He was tagged for a 5.43 ERA through the end of June, with significant home run troubles offsetting quality strikeout and walk numbers. The 29-year-old was one of the league’s best pitchers in July, though, and has generally been quite productive over the past couple months. Since July 1, Taillon owns a 3.39 ERA as he’s done a better job keeping the ball in the yard. On the season, Taillon has a 4.41 mark across 138 2/3 innings with an average 23.4% strikeout rate and a solid 7.2% walk percentage.

Romano has bounced on and off a few teams’ rosters over the course of the season. He began the year with the Reds, struggling badly in April and finding himself designated for assignment. After clearing waivers, he elected free agency and signed a minor league deal with the Yankees. He was selected to the big league roster but quickly DFA’d again, this time landing with the Brewers via waiver claim. Milwaukee became the third team to bump the right-hander from the 40-man roster not long thereafter, and Romano again elected free agency and signed with the Yankees.

Over his prior three big league stints, Romano compiled a 5.63 ERA in 24 innings of relief. His 13.9% strikeout rate is well below-average for a reliever, as is his 5% swinging strike rate. That said, Romano has been far better with Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, where he’s worked to a 3.56 figure over 30 1/3 innings. His 19.1% minor league strikeout rate is still a few points worse than the league average, but it’s quite a bit better than his big league mark. More impressively, Romano has walked a minuscule 3.8% of batters faced with the RailRiders, so Boone should at least be able to count on him throwing strikes consistently in the middle innings.

The Yankees claimed Davis off waivers from the Blue Jays a little more than a month ago. At the time, New York’s roster was reeling from COVID-19 spread. With those players having recovered from the virus, Davis found himself optioned to Triple-A and eventually squeezed off the 40-man entirely. The Yankees will now place Davis on outright or release waivers in the next few days.

Over parts of four seasons with the Jays and Yankees, Davis owns a .171/.272/.248 mark in 259 plate appearances. The right-handed hitter has a more productive .250/.355/.421 line in three seasons at Triple-A, though, and is capable of playing all three outfield positions. He is in his final minor league option year, so any team that claims Davis could keep him in the high minors as a depth option for the rest of the regular season. Because he’s being designated for assignment after August 31, Davis wouldn’t be eligible for a new team’s postseason roster if he’s claimed off waivers.

AL Notes: Santander, Astros, Indians, Taillon, Yankees

By Mark Polishuk | March 28, 2021 at 1:16pm CDT

Anthony Santander isn’t in the Orioles lineup today, and it seems as if the outfielder will miss his fifth consecutive spring game. Manager Brandon Hyde told MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko and other reporters that Santander has been bothered by a sore oblique, though Santander has still been working out and could potentially get back on the field as early as Monday.

Such a quick return would probably mean Santander is ready to roll for Opening Day, but the O’s are likely to be cautious considering that an oblique strain brought Santander’s 2020 season to an early end in September. The injury cut short a breakout year for the 26-year-old, as Santander hit .261/.315/.575 with 11 homers in 165 plate appearances.

MLBTR Poll: Forecasting The Yankees Rotation

By TC Zencka | February 27, 2021 at 12:47pm CDT

Jameson Taillon is aiming for 120 to 150 innings in his comeback from Tommy John surgery, writes Ken Davidoff of the New York Post. Taillon has just 37 1/3 innings to his name over the past two seasons, and since this will be his second time coming back from TJ, there’s reason to temper expectations regarding his workload. Davidoff looks at PECOTA, Steamer, and ZiPS to get an idea for what the projection systems think Taillon can handle in 2021 – though the creators of the systems admit this is an area that requires guesswork. Still, it’s instructive to know that the three systems project 103 innings, 133 innings, and 106 1/3 innings – in line with Taillon’s thinking.

How those innings manifest might be the question for the Yankees. The mean of the three projections is 114-ish innings, which would be just under four innings per start over a full 30-game workload. That’s not likely to be the shape of Taillon’s 2021 production. We know that depth will be key in 2021 across the league, but thinking in this way about Taillon all but erases the possibility of a five-man rotation surviving the season.

While that’s an absolute best-case, rarely-achieved feat in the first place, it’s worth keeping in mind before getting frustrated when Deivi García, for example, doesn’t make an opening day roster, speculatively speaking. And while Clarke Schmidt’s injury doesn’t appear to be serious, it serves as a generous reminder that the injury bug can bite at any time.

As if Taillon didn’t cloud the Yankees’ projections enough on his own, the rest of the group doesn’t bring much certainty either – beyond Gerrit Cole, of course. The projection systems collectively tag presumptive No. 2 starter Corey Kluber with an expectation for about 137 innings in 2021, a forecast largely born from the fact that the soon-to-be 35-year-old managed just one inning in 2020 and 35 2/3 innings the year before. Still, Kluber was a workhorse before 2019, with five straight 200+ inning seasons with the Indians.

Jordan Montgomery slots into the No. 4 spot, and he logged just 51 2/3 innings over the past two seasons after undergoing Tommy John surgery himself. Somewhat remarkably, the starter with the most innings after Cole the past two seasons is the guy who missed all of 2020 under the league’s domestic violence policy: Domingo Germán. Germán made 24 starts and amassed 143 innings with a 4.03 ERA/4.72 FIP, 38.1 percent groundball rate, 25.8 percent strikeout rate, and 6.6 percent walk rate in 2019. Those are above-average walk and strikeout numbers. Germán faces his own uphill climb, of course. Given comments made by his Yankee teammates this offseason, there’s more than a little doubt about how well he’ll be able to re-acclimate to the spotlight that comes with donning Yankee pinstripes.

García will obviously be a candidate to join the rotation, as could other 40-man roster arms like Schmidt, Michael King, Nick Nelson, Alexander Vizcaino, Luis Medina, and Luis Gil. Veterans Jhoulys Chacin and Asher Wojciechowski are also in camp as non-roster invitees. Jonathan Loaisiga, Albert Abreu and Luis Cessa are expected to pitch out the bullpen, but they’ve spent time starting games in the past. The Yankees also hope to receive a mid-season boost when Luis Severino returns from Tommy John. Severino threw just 12 innings the past two seasons, but he was an ace in the two years before that, averaging a 3.18 ERA/3.01 FIP, 5.5 fWAR in 192 innings per season in 2017 and 2018.

Of course, no matter the starting five, most teams are going to call upon more than just their opening day rotation to toe the rubber. The Yankees themselves used nine different starting pitchers in 2020 over just 60 games. They used 12 in 2019, 12 in 2018, and 11 in 2017. Those units finished eighth, fifth and fourth in the American League by measure of FIP, ninth, third and third by fWAR. Yankee starters ranked third in the AL by both FIP (4.19 FIP) and fWAR (5.3 fWAR) last season.

Volume isn’t everything, but for pitchers, inning totals do often point to success, or at the very least, health. Given the uncertainty of the Yankees new rotation, what are your expectations? Who of the starters after Cole stands the best chance of surviving the season?

(Poll link for app users)

AL East Notes: Vazquez, Angels, Tanaka, Blue Jays, Taillon

By Mark Polishuk | January 30, 2021 at 10:43pm CDT

The Angels signed Kurt Suzuki this offseason, and with a catching corps of Suzuki, Max Stassi, and Anthony Bemboom, adding an upper-tier backstop “would be a luxury and not a necessity” for the team, FanSided’s Robert Murray writes. However, the Halos have at least checked in on some prominent catchers, including Christian Vazquez of the Red Sox. No deal appears to be close, as the Sox naturally want quite a lot for Vazquez and “there are doubts whether the Red Sox will entertain trading him” whatsoever.

Vazquez is entering his final guaranteed year of the contract extension he signed in March 2018. He’ll earn $6.25MM in 2021, and the Red Sox hold a $7MM club option ($250K buyout) on his services for 2022. It’s a very affordable price for one of the game’s better defensive catchers, not to mention a catcher who has swung an increasingly dangerous bat — Vazquez has hit .278/.327/.472 with 30 homers in 710 plate appearances since the start of the 2019 season. He does turn 31 in August, so the Sox could think about moving him at a high point in his trade value, but the Angels or any suitor would have to step up with a very big offer to get Boston’s attention.

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