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Latest On Yankees’ Starting Pitching Pursuits

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The Yankees are well-established as seeking an arm to pair with ace Gerrit Cole at the front of their rotation. For much of the offseason, the club had their sights set on NPB star Yoshinobu Yamamoto, though they’ve had to shift gears in the aftermath of the right-hander’s decision to sign with the Dodgers last month. The club has seemingly stepped those pursuits up recently as recent reports have connected the club to both right-hander Dylan Cease via trade and southpaw Blake Snell in free agency. Jon Heyman of the New York Post provided an update on the club’s pitching pursuits recently, noting that “there’s a belief” within the organization that the club will be successful in adding a front-of-the-rotation arm before the season begins. Heyman adds that club chairman Hal Steinbrenner is “on board” with the idea of making a significant addition to the rotation, suggesting a willingness on the side of ownership to spend on rotation improvements.

Of course, commitment to adding a front-of-the-rotation starter and actually doing so are two different things, and Heyman reports that the club has continued to engage with Snell in free agency, though there’s a notable gap between the sides in negotiations. The same goes for left-hander Jordan Montgomery, though Heyman notes that the Yankees believe they have a better shot of signing Snell among the two southpaws. Montgomery, of course, was drafted by the Yankees in the fourth round of the 2014 draft and spent six and a half seasons in the Bronx before being shipped to St. Louis at the 2022 trade deadline.

Heyman suggests that Montgomery may prefer to return to the Rangers this offseason after winning the World Series with the club last year. Even if that’s the case, however, it’s worth noting that Texas’s front office has indicated the club doesn’t have much room in the budget for significant additions. That could pose a major roadblock to a Montgomery reunion in Arlington, as Joel Sherman of the New York Post recently reported that the left-hander is seeking a contract that would surpass the $172MM Aaron Nola re-signed in Philadelphia for back in November. That ask still positions him as cheaper than Snell, who Sherman notes is believed to be seeking more than $200MM this winter.

As for Cease, Heyman notes that the White Sox and Yankees face a “serious gap” in negotiations, with Yankees brass uncertain whether or not Chicago truly plans to move Cease before the beginning of the season and Heyman noting they’d face in uphill battle in outbidding other potential suitors like the Reds and Orioles for the righty’s services. With that being said, Cease isn’t the only player the Yankees are looking into on the trade market. Heyman reports that the club has discussed a trade with the Marlins as the club fields interest on lefties Jesus Luzardo, Trevor Rogers, and Braxton Garrett as well as right-hander Edward Cabrera, though he adds that those sides don’t appear to be close on a deal, either.

Even so, the Marlins could prove to be a cleaner fit as a trade partner for the Yankees than the White Sox. Miami has a clear need for a starting shortstop as things stand; the club currently has utilityman Jon Berti penciled into the everyday shortstop role with the likes of Vidal Brujan and Xavier Edwards as potential depth options. New York, meanwhile, has plenty of depth in the middle infield, where 2023’s double play duo of Anthony Volpe and Gleyber Torres figure to block youngster Oswald Peraza from regular playing time in the majors. While the Yankees were recently granted additional flexibility in how they handle Peraza via a fourth option year on the slick-fielding infielder, the 23-year-old could make plenty of sense as the centerpiece of a package that lands the Yankees a quality rotation piece.

However the Yankees end up addressing their rotation woes, it’s clear that the club needs to make an addition. Each of Michael King, Jhony Brito, Randy Vasquez, Luis Severino, and Domingo German have parted ways with the club this offseason by way of either trade or free agency, severely hampering the club’s rotation depth. While Cole provides the club with a reliable, innings-eating ace at the front-of-the-rotation, both Carlos Rodon and Nestor Cortes are coming off 2023 season hampered by injuries and ineffectiveness. Clarke Schmidt’s first season as a regular member of the starting rotation saw him perform on the level of a back-end starter, but without an external addition the club’s final rotation spot would go to an unproven arm such as Clayton Beeter or Luis Gil.

Latest On Cardinals’ Pitching Pursuits

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The Cardinals have spent their offseason focused on adding pitching, having already signed Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn to fill out the club’s rotation while trading for Andrew Kittredge, Nick Robertson and Victor Santos to bolster their bullpen depth. In a recent mailbag, The Athletic’s Katie Woo discussed St. Louis’s plans for the remainder of the offseason.

Regarding the bullpen, Woo notes that while the Cardinals have been active in the free agent relief market this offseason, the club doesn’t appear to be interested in a major addition like relief ace Josh Hader, instead preferring to shop in the lower tiers of the market. Woo relays that the club hopes to add another reliever to their bullpen with a contract in the range of around $5MM annually. She also notes that the club had interest in a reunion with right-hander Chris Stratton, who the club landed alongside Jose Quintana in a deal with the Pirates at the 2022 trade deadline before flipping him to the Rangers alongside Jordan Montgomery last summer, before the veteran inked a two-year, $8MM deal with the Royals.

Of course, it’s important to note that this report from Woo was published before the Cardinals and Rays got together on a trade to send veteran righty Andrew Kittredge to St. Louis yesterday afternoon. Kittredge is projected for a salary of just $2.3MM in 2024 by MLBTR’s Matt Swartz. Given the righty’s modest projected salary, it’s possible that his addition wouldn’t necessarily preclude the Cardinals from making another relief addition, whether by free agency or trade. At the same time, Woo indicates that the club is “high” on its internal relief corps and could look to make only one more addition, which the Kittredge deal would account for. If St. Louis does dip into the free agent relief market, Woo indicates that lefty Matt Moore and right-hander Phil Maton could be in the club’s price range this winter.

Each of Stratton, Moore, and Maton have been valuable bullpen pieces for contending clubs in recent years, though neither Stratton nor Maton have posted the sort of elite numbers that would make them clear back-end arms like Hader or former Cardinal Jordan Hicks; Maton has a 3.67 ERA since joining the Astros midway through the 2021 season, while Stratton has posted a 3.92 ERA over the past three seasons. Moore, by contrast, has posted a fantastic 2.20 ERA and respectable 3.29 FIP in 126 2/3 innings the past two seasons, making him one of the more effective set-up options on the market. With that being said, the lefty is entering his age-35 campaign in 2024 and seems unlikely to land a longer-term commitment from interested clubs. The Cardinals have also reportedly expressed interest in Ryan Brasier, who struggled badly (7.29 ERA) with the Red Sox earlier in the 2023 campaign before dominating (0.70 ERA) down the stretch with the Dodgers last season.

While it’s not entirely clear what the Cardinals’ bullpen plans are following the addition of Kittredge, Woo indicates that the club is likely done adding to its rotation this winter. She writes that a reunion with Montgomery or a deal for another top free agent starter like Shota Imanaga or Blake Snell is “incredibly unlikely” as the club doesn’t have interest in offering a nine-figure contract this winter, a benchmark each of the aforementioned southpaws appears likely to surpass. While Woo acknowledges that the club’s front office could explore trades for starting pitching, she describes the pursuits as “neither a high priority nor highly likely” to result in an addition this winter. Right-handers Dylan Cease and Shane Bieber have both been seen as likely trade candidates this offseason, while the likes of Corbin Burnes and Jesus Luzardo have occasionally seen their names floated in the rumor mill as well. The Cards have been loosely connected to Cease recently but otherwise haven’t come up often as a potential suitor for a starter in the rumor mill this winter.

It would be something of a surprise if Kittredge proved to be the club’s final pitching addition this winter. After all, the Cardinals noted that they planned to add “at least two” relievers this offseason in addition to their goal of adding three starters, which they completed by adding Gray, Gibson, and Lynn. By contrast, Kittredge is the only relief arm they’ve added to this point with a substantial track record in the majors. While the likes of Robertson, minor league signing Wilking Rodriguez and Rule 5 draftee Ryan Fernandez all provide depth, none of them figure to be the sort of reliable source of quality production the Cardinals lacked in 2023.

If the Cardinals do come up short in their goal of adding multiple relievers to their bullpen mix, it’s fair to wonder if they’ll have done enough to put themselves back into contention in the NL Central after finishing fifth in their division with a 91-loss campaign in 2023. While the club is surely hoping for rebound seasons from veteran stars Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt to lift the offense, the club’s pitching staff was primarily the cause of St. Louis’s difficult season last year. Cardinals starters posted a 5.08 ERA in the rotation last year that ranked fifth-worst in the majors, while their bullpen was the eighth-worst by that same metric.

The addition of Gray to the club’s rotation figures to provide a significant boost, but both Gibson and Lynn are coming off down seasons of their own while internal options like Miles Mikolas, Steven Matz, and Matthew Liberatore all come with their own question marks, though internal youngsters like Sem Robberse could impact the club in 2024 and provide depth behind the established arms. As for the bullpen, both Kittredge and internal southpaw JoJo Romero have flashed tantalizing upside in the past but offer little certainty headed into 2024. That goes for most of the club’s relief corps with the exceptions of Ryan Helsley and Giovanny Gallegos, though even they dealt with injury and under-performance issues respectively last season. Signing an arm like Moore or Maton to bolster the bullpen could go a long way to helping St. Louis return to form next season, particularly given the relative inaction of the rest of the division aside from Cincinnati this winter.

Latest On Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery

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While many around the game have long assumed that the free agent market, particularly that for pitching, would pick up following right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s decision to sign with the Dodgers last week, that seemingly has not come to fruition to this point. Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com suggests that may be due to the fact that agent Scott Boras, who represents top remaining free agent starters Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, “may be keen” on taking his time in finding new homes for the two southpaws. That’s hardly out of character for Boras, who has in previous seasons allowed star clients to linger on the free agent market well into Spring Training, as he did with Bryce Harper during the 2018-19 offseason.

That willingness to wait out the market could be, at least in part, due to the number of potential suitors still available for the pair to choose from. Jon Heyman of the New York Post suggests that the Phillies, Red Sox, Giants, and Angels are all interested in both lefties. The Angels and Giants were linked to Snell last week, though their apparent interest in Montgomery was not mentioned in that reporting. Heyman also adds that the Yankees have interest in Montgomery, who had previously been floated as a back-up plan for them if they failed to lure Yamamoto to the Bronx, though he notes that it’s unclear if the club is interested in Snell as well.

It’s hardly a surprise that the Angels and Giants would expand their purview beyond Snell to include Montgomery, given the duo’s status as the clear top starters on the free agent market and each team’s obvious needs in the rotation. Likewise, the Yankees are known to be in the market for a top-of-the-rotation starter and clearly aren’t afraid to spend big after reportedly making Yamamoto a $300MM offer. Similarly, the Red Sox have been connected to top-of-the-rotation arms all throughout the offseason, though Cotillo cautions that the club is currently more focused on free agent arms a tier below Snell and Montgomery like Lucas Giolito and Shota Imanaga.

The Phillies are perhaps the most surprising inclusion on this list. While the club was among the finalists for Yamamoto’s services, the club has reportedly since pivoted to prioritizing a contract extension with Zack Wheeler rather than adding additional impact talent to the 2024 club. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski confirmed as much when discussing the club’s pursuit of Yamamoto with reporters recently, noting that future additions to the club figure to come “more around the edges” of the roster than anywhere else. That being said, the club evidently had the payroll space available to be a significantly player in the Yamamoto sweepstakes, making it at least feasible that the Phillies could make the top offer to either Montgomery or Snell if they so chose. Reporting early in the offseason described the club as “lukewarm” on Snell, though it’s possible the club’s tune regarding Snell has changed now that he would be pitching alongside Nola in the rotation rather than replacing the club’s homegrown ace.

The two southpaws’ markets being somewhat intertwined is not necessarily a surprise given their stature as the clear best free agent starters remaining on the market. That being said, the pair bring noticeably different skillsets to the table. Montgomery, who celebrated his 31st birthday yesterday, has been a model of consistency in recent years, with his year-to-year stats never drifting too far from his career norms: a solid 22.5% strikeout rate, a low 6.6% walk rate, and a 3.68 ERA (116 ERA+). With that being said, Montgomery’s 2023 season saw him take a step forward in terms of his run-prevention numbers as the lefty posted a 3.20 ERA and 3.56 FIP across a career-high 188 2/3 innings of work, giving him the look of a potential front-of-the-rotation workhorse with a stable, middle-of-the-rotation floor.

Snell, by contrast, has seen significantly higher highs and lower lows throughout his career in the big leagues. Having won the AL Cy Young award in 2018 and the NL Cy Young award this past season, Snell is among the most electric pitchers in baseball when he’s on as demonstrated by his sterling 1.23 ERA and sensational 35% strikeout rate over the final 23 starts of his 2023 campaign. On the other hand, however, Snell is also prone to stretches of significant struggles. From 2019-21, Snell posted just a 4.06 ERA and 3.73 FIP across 61 starts thanks to a severe problem with home runs (16.9% of his fly balls left the yard during that time) and a concerning 10.6% walk rate. During that three-year stretch, Snell had the look of a #4 starter despite never posting a strikeout rate below 30%. Even in his best years, he struggles to maintain his command as demonstrated by him allowing free passes at a league-leading 13.3% clip even en route to the second Cy Young award of his career this season.

Even as the suitors for both players are mostly similar, the differences in how each lefty gets to his results may be creating disparity in their price tags on the open market. Cotillo suggests that while Montgomery is expected to command a “massive” deal this offseason, some in the industry reportedly believe Snell’s market is less robust with Cotillo noting that a “person with knowledge of the pitching market” suggested that teams could end up offering Snell a three-year deal with a high average annual value and multiple opt-outs, similar to the deal shortstop (and fellow Boras client) Carlos Correa signed with the Twins during the 2021-22 offseason.

Of course, that report is just one source’s view of Snell’s market. It’s worth noting that MLBTR projected Snell for a far more significant seven-year, $200MM contract in our annual Top 50 MLB free agents list, where he placed fourth behind only Shohei Ohtani, Cody Bellinger, and Yamamoto. While a deal similar to Correa’s first pact in Minnesota could certainly make sense for Snell if his market fails to materialize, the number of clubs reportedly in search of front-of-the-rotation talent and Boras’s previous willingness to wait out the market in search of the best deal make it unlikely a more creative, shorter-term arrangement would come together anytime soon.

Latest On Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s Market

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There’s been ample speculation about the eventual price tag of a Yoshinobu Yamamoto contract, but until early this week, the right-hander hadn’t discussed specific years and dollars with clubs, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports.

Teams eyeing the NPB ace’s services were asked to submit a “preliminary” bid early in the process to gauge the seriousness of their interest, per Passan, but a follow-up round of more concrete bidding hadn’t taken place prior to this week. Yamamoto has met with several teams recently, presumably to familiarize himself with each organization and the systems and personnel in place at each potential landing spot. Entering the week, no teams had made a formal offer of $300MM or more, despite speculation to the contrary; none, in fact, had submitted a formal offer even beyond that preliminary bid. Passan wrote that some clubs have tried to broach the subject of years and dollars, but Yamamoto’s camp preferred to hold off until this week.

The Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Giants, Red Sox, Phillies and perhaps the Blue Jays among the teams reported to have met with Yamamoto over the past 14 days. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic characterized both the Phillies and Blue Jays as teams more on the periphery of the bidding as of this morning, however (video link). It takes only one aggressive bid to change that perception, of course, but it’s notable that they’re being framed in that manner at present.

The two New York clubs have long been known to be serious bidders for Yamamoto, though the manner in which he fits into each club’s landscape of potential offseason moves is quite different. The Yankees, for instance, have no intention of easing up even if they miss on Yamamoto. If they can’t lure the 25-year-old righty to the Bronx, Rosenthal suggests they’ll look to bolster the roster elsewhere. Among the possibilities he lays out are a run at bringing Jordan Montgomery back to the Bronx or perhaps building a stacked bullpen with pursuits of top-tier relievers like Josh Hader, Jordan Hicks and Robert Stephenson.

That seems to be a direct contrast to how the Mets are approaching the situation. The Athletic’s Will Sammon wrote over the weekend that the Mets are focused on Yamamoto and Yamamoto alone; they’re not expected to change course and pursue other marquee additions if Yamamoto ultimately signs elsewhere. Mike Puma of the New York Post reports that the Mets will submit a formal offer to Yamamoto in the next couple of days, adding that the team’s expectation has been that Yamamoto will reach a decision before next Monday. That’s entirely dependent on the player’s mindset, of course; Yamamoto’s 45-day negotiation window with MLB clubs doesn’t draw to a close until Jan. 4.

MLBTR polled readers last week, with more than 27% indicating they believe Yamamoto will sign somewhere between $300-325MM, not including the posting/release fee owed to his former club, the Orix Buffaloes. The Yankees and Dodgers were the top predicted landing spots, with both drawing about 22% of the vote (though the Yankees technically garnered 88 more of the 17,000+ votes than the Dodgers).

East Notes: Nationals, Mets, Rays

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The Nationals finished the 2023 season with a 71-91 record that left them as one of the worst teams in the National League, even as it represented a substantial improvement over the club’s 107-loss 2022 campaign. While the club has sat out the top of the free agent market during the recent seasons of their rebuild, it seems that may not be the case this offseason as the club looks to upgrade at the infield corners and at DH, per TalkNats. The club has already been linked to a reunion with third baseman Jeimer Candelario, who was posting career-best numbers with the Nats prior to being dealt to the Cubs at the trade deadline. The report suggests that the club has interest in first baseman Rhys Hoskins and outfield/DH slugger Jorge Soler in addition to Candelario. The report goes on to indicate that Washington has been “very active” in the starting pitching market to this point in the offseason, though it does not connect any specific names to the club.

The rumored targets make sense for the Nationals. The club has a major hole at third base given that former top prospect Carter Kieboom has failed to establish himself the big league level. Kieboom’s .207/.266/.368 slash line (70 wRC+) in 2023 was largely in line with his career numbers of .199/.297/.301 (65 wRC+), and Candelario or another third base addition would almost certainly represent a significant upgrade over the 26-year-old. Meanwhile, an addition at first base or DH could help the club improve an offense that currently figures to use journeyman Joey Meneses at one position without an established starter at the other.

As for the rotation, the club has several interesting young arms such as Josiah Gray and MacKenzie Gore that they figure to prioritize developing, with veterans such as Patrick Corbin and Trevor Williams who can reliably eat innings. That being said, the Nationals’ starting staff posted a combined 5.02 ERA last season, the sixth-worst figure in the majors. What’s more, the club’s 5.30 FIP in the rotation was better than only the lowly Rockies, while their starting staff combined for just 4.9 fWAR, better than only Colorado and Oakland. That leaves plenty of room for improvement if the club decides to add even a lower-level free agent such as Matthew Boyd or Frankie Montas to its rotation, to say nothing of a more impactful addition.

More from around MLB’s East divisions…

  • While the Mets have reportedly shifted their focus away from superstar free agent Shohei Ohtani, Jon Heyman of the New York Post suggests that the club is still looking at potential impact additions this offseason. They’ve long been connected to top-of-the-market arm Yoshinobu Yamamoto as they explore potential rotation upgrades, and Heyman adds that the Mets are looking into “nearly every available frontline starter” in addition to Yamamoto, including southpaws Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, and Eduardo Rodriguez. While Heyman notes the club is unlikely to land a rental arm such as Tyler Glasnow or Shane Bieber on the trade market, he does suggest the club’s interest in rotation upgrades extends to White Sox starter Dylan Cease, who is under team control for the next two seasons and has seen plenty of trade buzz this offseason. Rotation upgrades make plenty of sense for New York after the club shipped out veteran aces Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer at the trade deadline over the summer, leaving Kodai Senga, Jose Quintana, and newly-signed righty Luis Severino as the club’s only rotation locks entering 2024.
  • The Rays have interest in a reunion with right-hander Cooper Criswell even after non-tendering him last month, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Criswell, 27, made his big league debut as a member of the Angels in 2021 with a one-game cup of coffee that lasted just 1 1/3 innings. He spent the past two seasons as a member of the Rays, with a 5.45 ERA and 5.00 FIP in 36 1/3 innings of work across 11 appearances. While those numbers are certainly nothing to write home about, Criswell’s ability to go multiple innings and 46.8% career groundball rate at the big league level could make him a worthwhile depth addition for a Rays club that relied on 40 different pitchers throughout the 2023 campaign.

Mets Continuing To Explore Rotation Market

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The Mets are soon to add Luis Severino to their rotation, as they’re in the process of finalizing a $13MM contract with the longtime Yankee. That’s one of what’ll surely be multiple additions to the starting staff, as New York entered the offseason with only Kodai Senga and José Quintana locked into rotation spots.

There’s no secret about their interest in NPB superstar Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the three-time winner of the Sawamura Award (Japan’s Cy Young equivalent). Upwards of a dozen teams are in the mix for the 25-year-old righty, who seems likely to command the largest contract of any pure pitcher in this year’s class. Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote this afternoon that some rival clubs consider the Mets the favorite on Yamamoto, but there’ll be no shortage of competition.

Unsurprisingly, the front office has its eye on multiple options on the open market. Michael Marino of Fantrax tweeted this week that the club was showing interest in left-hander Jordan Montgomery. Andy Martino of SNY echoes that sentiment, calling Montgomery “a more likely target” than fellow free agent southpaws Blake Snell and Eduardo Rodriguez.

Montgomery has been a popular name. He is also known to have drawn attention from the Red Sox, Yankees and incumbent Rangers. It stands to reason there are numerous additional suitors for the soon to be 31-year-old, who is coming off a 3.20 ERA across 188 2/3 innings. That’s a career-best mark, but he has allowed fewer than four earned runs per nine while reaching 30+ starts in each of the past three seasons.

In addition to their Yamamoto pursuit, the Mets apparently also have some level of interest in Shota Imanaga. Martino adds that they’ll “explore” the market on the left-hander, the second-best pitcher coming over from Japan this offseason. Imanaga was officially posted by the Yokohama BayStars this week, opening a 45-day window for him to sign with a major league team.

While Imanaga isn’t the same caliber of pitcher as Yamamoto, he has a chance to beat the five-year, $75MM pact which the Mets gave Senga last offseason. Imanaga turned 30 in September, so he’s one of the younger free agent arms available (albeit nowhere near as young as Yamamoto). He’s coming off a 2.80 ERA showing over 148 innings in NPB. Imanaga struck out 174 hitters, fanning a little over 29% of batters faced. Evaluators with whom MLBTR spoke projected him as a potential mid-rotation arm. Brandon Tew of Spots Info Solutions took a look at Imanaga’s repertoire yesterday, praising his command and the carry he generates on his low-90s four-seam fastball.

Each of Montgomery and Imanaga could land five or more years. A pact of that length would align with the Mets’ general competitive timeline. Team officials have made clear they won’t punt on the upcoming season but are targeting 2025 and beyond as a more realistic contention window.

To that end, Martino suggests they’re unlikely to be actively involved in trade discussions for a star player whose contract expires at the end of next season. He reports that the Mets are not in discussions with the Rays on Tyler Glasnow at present. (While Martino doesn’t specifically mention Corbin Burnes or Shane Bieber, it’d be similarly logical for the team to mostly sit out those discussions as well.) They’re seemingly reluctant to relinquish significant future value for a rental on the heels of a fourth-place finish in a competitive NL East.

Latest On Red Sox’s Pitching Targets

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The Red Sox are known to be seeking top-of-the-rotation starting pitching. A pair of high-end starters, Aaron Nola and Sonny Gray, have come off the board. There wasn’t any indication the Sox were deeply involved in the bidding for either right-hander. Sean McAdam of MassLive writes that the Sox have been seeking to add a starter via trade before turning to free agency.

At the same time, one notable trade candidate doesn’t appear to be strongly on their radar. McAdam reports that the Red Sox have not been actively involved in discussions with the White Sox regarding Dylan Cease. The right-hander has been mentioned as a target for the Dodgers and Braves and has surely drawn unreported interest from other teams seeking rotation help.

That Boston doesn’t seem as involved in Cease discussions is a bit of a surprise. He still has two seasons of arbitration control; MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for an $8.8MM salary, a bargain price for a pitcher with his upside. Alongside Corbin Burnes, Shane Bieber and Tyler Glasnow (the latter of whom seems unlikely to land within the AL East if the Rays trade him), Cease has been the subject of plenty of trade speculation.

The 27-year-old (28 next month) isn’t coming off a great season. Cease allowed 4.58 earned runs per nine, more than two runs above the 2.20 ERA he posted in 2022. A spike in hard contact and a slight dip in strikeout rate surely contributed to that less inspiring run prevention. Yet even with that downturn in whiffs, Cease still fanned an above-average 27.2% of batters faced behind an excellent 13.6% swinging strike percentage. His fastball averaged just under 96 MPH, while his slider remained a swing-and-miss offering.

While the Sox may be focused on trade targets aside from Cease, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow and his front office are surely keeping an eye on the top hurlers on the open market. They’ve been tied to NPB star Yoshinobu Yamamoto and left-hander Jordan Montgomery. McAdam indicates the Sox also expressed some interest in Blake Snell when they met with the defending NL Cy Young winner’s representatives at the Boras Corporation during the GM Meetings.

Snell rode a laughably dominant second half to the second Cy Young of his career. He finished the year with an MLB-best 2.25 ERA across 180 innings. Snell led the majors with 99 walks but allowed only 5.8 hits per nine innings, the lowest mark for any qualified starter. That’s in large part thanks to a stellar 31.5% strikeout rate. MLBTR predicted Snell to land $200MM over seven seasons. He has also been linked to the Dodgers, Giants and incumbent Padres. McAdam suggests that Snell, a Seattle-area native, may prefer to sign with a West Coast team.

If that is indeed the case, that wouldn’t bode especially well for the Red Sox’s chances. The market’s other top southpaw, Montgomery, has a tie to the Northeast. While Montgomery is a South Carolina native, McAdam and Chris Cotillo of MassLive note that he is spending the winter in Boston while his wife McKenzie begins a medical residency at a hospital in the area. It’s not clear if that’ll have any impact on his free agent preferences.

Rangers Interested In Reunion With Jordan Montgomery

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Left-hander Jordan Montgomery figures to be among the most sought-after free agents on the starting pitching market this offseason. With righty Aaron Nola having already returned to the Phillies on a seven-year deal earlier this week, only recently-posted right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto and reigning NL Cy Young award winner Blake Snell compare rank ahead of Montgomery on MLBTR’s Top 50 free agents list in terms of starting pitching options for 2024. While the Yankees, Cardinals and Red Sox have both already been connected to the southpaw this offseason, Montgomery is also receiving interest from the team he just won the World Series with. Per Jon Heyman of the New York Post, the Rangers “hope” that they’ll be able to bring Montgomery back into the fold this offseason.

That’s hardly a surprise, given the excellent form he showed since being shipped to Texas by St. Louis over the summer. In 11 starts following that deadline deal, Montgomery posted a sterling 2.79 ERA that was 60% better than league average by measure of ERA+ with a FIP of 3.27. While his 2023 strikeout rate of 21.4% was more solid than elite, his already strong 6.2% walk rate this season improved to a phenomenal 4.9% figure during his time with the Rangers down the stretch. Montgomery paired his ability to limit the free pass with a 43.2% groundball rate that placed him just outside the top-20 by that metric among qualified starters this season. It was more of the same during Montgomery’s six postseason appearances for Texas this October, during which he posted a 2.90 ERA in 31 innings of work.

Montgomery’s strong 2023 caps off a trio of three seasons that have seen the southpaw establish himself as a quality front-end starter for a playoff-caliber team. In splitting his time between the Yankees, Cardinals, and Rangers from 2021-23, Montgomery has posted a 3.48 ERA and 3.62 FIP while making at least 30 starts in each of those seasons. Over the past three seasons, Montgomery is one of just 20 pitchers to record at least 500 innings of work, a feat that establishes him as one of the game’s premiere workhorses at this point in his career.

Given his recent performance and the number of teams known to be in the market for starting pitching this offseason, Montgomery is at least a plausible fit for plenty of clubs. The Rangers are certainly included in that. While the club’s Opening Day rotation can at least be plausibly filled with Max Scherzer, Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, Dane Dunning, and Andrew Heaney, both Dunning and Heaney spent time in the bullpen for Texas in 2023 in addition to their time in the rotation. It’s also worth noting that each of Scherzer, Eovaldi, and Gray spent significant time on the injured list this past season, while Heaney has a lengthy injury history of his own.

While ace righty Jacob deGrom could return from Tommy John surgery sometime next season, deGrom wouldn’t exactly provide reliable innings coming off the second Tommy John surgery of his career and with just 186 2/3 innings of work over the past three seasons of his career. Given the substantial injury risk in the Rangers’ currently projected rotation, reuniting with Montgomery would be a sensible decision to add some stability to a front-of-the-rotation picture that otherwise features a pair of oft-injured veterans in Scherzer and Eovaldi and could add a third arm befitting of that description in deGrom later in the year.

Of course, a deal is hardly a slam-dunk even in spite of the clear fit and interest on Texas’s end of the equation. After all, Montgomery has already been linked to three other teams this offseason and plenty of clubs are in need of starting pitching help and could enter the market for his services as the offseason progresses. What’s more, the Rangers are expected to make improving the club’s bullpen a focus of their offseason after the club’s relief corps posted a brutal 4.77 ERA in 2023. Though the addition of Montgomery would allow the club to improve the bullpen by moving Heaney or Dunning into a multi-inning relief role, the club’s bullpen would likely benefit far more from the addition of a late-inning arm like Josh Hader or NPB lefty Yuki Matsui.

Such a signing wouldn’t necessarily preclude the Rangers from adding Montgomery, as they’ve hardly shied away from making multiple significant additions in recent offseasons. That being said, it’s fair to at least wonder how much the club plans on increasing its payroll (which already sits at $214MM for next year according to RosterResource) in light of recent reporting that Diamond Sports Group is considering dropping Rangers broadcasts ahead of the 2024 campaign. If Diamond were to do so, it would leave the Rangers without a distribution partner for local broadcasting, a reality that has already led the Twins toward cutting payroll this offseason.

Yankees Showing Interest In Jordan Montgomery

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The Yankees seem to be considering a reunion with former rotation stalwart Jordan Montgomery, according to the New York Post’s Jon Heyman.  The club has been “looking at” Montgomery as a possible offseason signing, and it appears to be slightly more than just due diligence, as Heyman writes that “the Yankees have been particular about rotation targets.”  Previous reports have linked such arms as Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Frankie Montas, Yariel Rodriguez, and (before he re-signed with the Phillies) Aaron Nola to the Yankees’ pitching wishlist, and it’s probably safe to assume the Bronx Bombers have some level of interest in Shohei Ohtani even though he won’t be able to pitch in 2024.

Obviously Montgomery is a known quantity for the Yankees, having started his pro career in the pinstripes after being drafted in the fourth round in 2014.  Debuting in the majors in 2017, Montgomery posted a 3.94 ERA, 22.68% strikeout rate, and 6.93% walk rate over his 502 2/3 innings with New York, establishing himself as a solid and even underrated member of the starting five.

Despite this success, the left-hander was dealt to the Cardinals at the 2022 trade deadline in a move that since become infamous in the Bronx.  Harrison Bader came from St. Louis in the one-for-one-swap, and apart from a spectacular power surge during the Yankees’ 2022 playoff run, Bader’s time in New York was a disappointment.  The outfielder played in only 98 regular season games due to injuries, and hit .237/.274/.353 over 359 plate appearances before the Yankees put him on waivers this past August.

Meanwhile, Montgomery’s star (and free agent price tag) only continued to rise.  He pitched well for St. Louis during the rest of the 2022 season and into 2023, though the Cardinals’ own struggles saw Montgomery again on the move at the deadline, this time to the Rangers.  From there, Montgomery became one of the key factors of the Rangers’ World Series run — he posted a 2.79 ERA over 67 2/3 innings in the regular season just to help Texas get into the playoffs, and the lefty then had a 2.90 ERA over 31 postseason frames.

MLBTR ranked Montgomery sixth on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agents, projecting him for a six-year, $150MM contract.  Nola received the same projection and landed a seven-year, $172MM deal from Philadelphia, so it is quite possible Montgomery might also beat our prediction even though he is six months older and has a past Tommy John surgery on his record.  However, Montgomery wasn’t eligible for the qualifying offer due to the midseason trade, so a team that signs him wouldn’t have to surrender any draft picks or international pool money as compensation.

This is undoubtedly of interest to a Yankees team that surpassed the luxury tax last year, and thus would pay the higher penalty of two picks and $1MM of int’l bonus money for signing any qualified free agent.  New York’s interest in such players as Nola, Ohtani, or Cody Bellinger indicates that the Bombers are open to signing QO-rejecting free agents, though it’s fair to speculate that the Yankees might be willing to take the plunge for only one such player.  For instance, Bellinger might be a bit of a priority since hitting is a greater need for the Yankees, but they could then also look one of many non-QO pitchers, including top-tier names like Yamamoto or Montgomery.

It is fair to speculate whether or not the past history with Montgomery and the Yankees is an obstacle in any negotiations.  Naturally GM Brian Cashman would love to have a do-over of the Bader trade, and since his concerns over Montgomery’s viability as a postseason starter have now been firmly proven wrong, what better public mea culpa than a $150MM contract?  Montgomery might see it as water under the bridge and be willing to return to complete some unfinished business in the Bronx.  On the other hand, it seems possible that Montgomery simply wants to move on from an organization that once considered him expendable, and would prefer to join either a new team altogether or one of his other former clubs in Texas or St. Louis.

Red Sox Exploring Top Of Rotation Market

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Starting pitching is a clear priority for the Red Sox. Boston’s new chief baseball officer Craig Breslow acknowledged as much last week, although they’re certainly not alone in that pursuit.

That could extend to the top end of the market. Jeff Passan of ESPN wrote on Tuesday that the Sox were targeting front-line starting pitching. Jon Heyman of the New York Post suggests Boston is looking to add multiple starters this offseason. It stands to reason Breslow and his staff could look to pair an impact acquisition with a more affordable, if lower ceiling, addition.

Free agency offers a few possibilities. The Red Sox surely have some level of interest in Shohei Ohtani, but he wouldn’t be a factor in the 2024 rotation after his elbow procedure. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Aaron Nola and Jordan Montgomery are generally regarded as the next tier of free agent starters. AL Cy Young runner-up Sonny Gray is probably below that group in earning power because he’s 34 years old but fits in terms of short-term impact.

This afternoon, Ian Browne of MLB.com suggested in an appearance on the ITM podcast that the Boston front office prefers Montgomery to Snell or Nola (Twitter link via Steve Perrault). Sox executives chatted with Montgomery’s representatives at the Boras Corporation during last week’s GM Meetings, although they’re presumably targeting multiple Boras clients to varying degrees. (Snell is also represented by the Boras Corp.)

Montgomery turned in a 3.20 ERA through 188 2/3 innings between the Cardinals and Rangers. It was third straight sub-4.00 showing over 30+ starts. Montgomery chipped in 31 frames of 2.90 ERA ball during Texas’ run to a World Series. During the regular season, the 30-year-old southpaw struck out a near-average 21.4% of opponents while keeping his walks to a tidy 6.2% clip.

He may not have the upside of Nola or Snell, each of whom misses more bats. Montgomery has better control than Snell and hasn’t had the spotty ERA or home run issues that have troubled Nola in two of the past three seasons, however. He also has the advantage of not requiring a signing team to surrender draft compensation. The midseason trade rendered Montgomery ineligible for the qualifying offer. Snell, Nola and Gray all received the QO. Yamamoto, of course, is not subject to the QO as a foreign professional.

Roster Resource projects the Sox for roughly $189MM in luxury tax commitments. That’s well below the $237MM base threshold, leaving plenty of potential spending room for Breslow and his staff. It’s also possible the Sox look to the trade market for rotation help. It’s difficult to envision the Rays trading Tyler Glasnow in division. Players like Corbin Burnes or Shane Bieber could be available as they enter their final seasons of arbitration eligibility.

Boston’s current rotation mix is a high-variance unit. Nick Pivetta, Chris Sale, Brayan Bello, Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock have all shown substantial upside.They also come with uncertainty to varying degrees. Houck and Whitlock might be better suited for relief. That could also be true of Pivetta, although he finished the 2023 season pitching very well over multiple innings. Sale has battled injuries and Bello seemed to wear down in the second half of his first full MLB season.

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