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Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions: Pitchers

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The World Series will be completed in less than a week, which means the offseason is imminent. Almost right away, some key decisions will have to be made. Within five days of the World Series ending, contract options will need to be either exercised or declined and clubs will also have to choose whether or not to issue qualifying offers to eligible players.

A player is eligible for a qualifying offer if they have never received a QO before and spent the entire season with the same club. The value of the QO changes annually, calculated by taking the average salary of the 125 highest-paid players in the league. That means it generally rises as salaries increase over time, with this year’s QO expected to land around $20.5MM. If a player receives and rejects a qualifying offer, he becomes a free agent. If he then signs elsewhere, the signing team is subject to draft pick forfeiture and possibly other penalties, while their previous club receives draft pick compensation.

MLBTR is taking a look at the candidates, with one post focusing on the position players and this one looking at the pitchers.

No-Doubters

These five are slam dunks to receive and reject the qualifying offer. Ohtani won’t pitch in 2024 after undergoing elbow surgery, but he is still expected to hit and will perhaps return to the mound in 2025. As one of the best hitters in baseball and the potential for two-way contributions down the road, he’s in line for a record-setting contract. Nola is coming off a down season relative to his own standards but has an excellent track record that will put him in line for a nine-figure deal even with the QO attached. Gray’s total earning power will be capped somewhat by the fact that he turns 34 in a week but his excellent work in 2023 should be able to get him a new deal around $20MM per year over multiple seasons. Snell just wrapped up an excellent campaign, finishing with a 2.25 ERA that could see him net a second career Cy Young award. That sets him up for a huge payday even after rejecting the QO. Hader has been one of the best relievers in the game for a long time and could challenge Edwin Díaz for the biggest contract ever for a reliever.

Special Case

Kershaw has been eligible for a qualifying offer in each of the past two offseasons but didn’t receive one. That wasn’t a reflection of his performance but a sign of respect. In each case, Kershaw went into the winter not knowing if he wanted to come back to the Dodgers, jump to his hometown Rangers or retire. The Dodgers decided both times not to issue him the QO so that he wouldn’t have to make a rushed decision at the beginning of the offseason. Since Kershaw is once again undecided on his future, it seems fair to expect that the Dodgers will decline to extend the QO, though Kershaw would warrant one in a vacuum.

Possible Candidates

Lugo spent most of his career working out of the bullpen but hit free agency a year ago and drew plenty of interest as a starter. The Padres eventually brought him aboard via a two-year deal with a $15MM guarantee and incentives, as well as an opt-out after the first season.

The righty made the most of the opportunity, making 26 starts and logging 146 1/3 innings with a 3.57 earned run average. He stuck out 23.2% of batters faced, walked 6% and kept the ball on the ground at a 45.2% clip. There were some concerns about Lugo’s ability to hold up over a full season, both since he hadn’t had that kind of workload before and because he had a slight tear of his UCL in 2017 that wasn’t surgically addressed. But in 2023, Lugo made just one trip to the injured list, missing just over a month due to a calf strain.

Now that Lugo has proof of concept as a starter, he should have greater earning power than he did a year ago, even though he’s about to turn 34. Turning down the one year and $7.5MM left on his deal should be an easy call, but then the Padres will have a more difficult choice. It would be hard for Lugo to turn down a 2024 salary more than twice what he made in the prior season, so there would be a decent chance he accepts a QO. With the club reportedly looking to cut payroll, they may not want to take that chance.

Maeda has had his ups and downs in recent years but is heading into free agency with some momentum. He posted a 2.70 ERA in 2020 but then that figure jumped to 4.66 in 2021 before he underwent internal brace surgery on his elbow. He missed all of 2022 and then struggled early in 2023. In his fourth start of the season, he was shelled by the Yankees, allowing 10 earned runs in three innings. He was then placed on the injured list with a triceps strain while sporting an ERA of 9.00 for the year.

But after getting healthy, his results were much better. He was activated from the IL in late June and made 17 more appearances the rest of the way. He tossed 88 1/3 innings with a 3.36 ERA, 29% strikeout rate and 7% walk rate. Though his ERA for the whole year finished at 4.23, it seems fair to conclude that the early-season injury inflated that number.

The righty has never had a massive salary locked in. When he initially came over from Japan, the Dodgers signed him to an incentive-laden deal that guaranteed him $25MM over eight years. That came in the form of a $1MM signing bonus, $3MM salary each year and $6.5MM in incentives available each season based on games started and innings pitched. If he suddenly had a $20.5MM guarantee in front of him for his age-36 season, that would likely be very tempting.

The Twins aren’t one of the top payroll teams under normal circumstances and may need to cut back spending due to uncertainty around their TV revenues. They may not want to blow a huge chunk of their budget right at the beginning of the offseason, especially when their rotation is already in decent shape with Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack and Louie Varland currently pencilled in.

Wacha had some strong seasons earlier in his career with the Cardinals, but injuries became an issue more recently. He settled for a $3MM guarantee while joining the Mets for 2020, then was limited to 34 mediocre innings in the shortened season. The Rays took a shot on him in 2021 with another $3MM guarantee and he stayed healthy enough to log 124 2/3 innings with a 5.05 ERA. That relatively healthy campaign was enough to get him a one-year, $7MM deal with the Red Sox for 2022, and he then tossed 127 1/3 innings for that club with a 3.23 ERA.

He lingered on the open market for a while last offseason but eventually landed a four-year, $26MM guarantee from the Padres with a layered option structure. After the 2023 World Series, the Friars will have to decide whether or not to trigger two $16MM club options for 2024 and 2025, effectively a two-year, $32MM deal. If they decline, Wacha has a $6.5MM player option for 2024 and then $6MM player options for 2025 and 2026.

The righty is coming off another decent season. Though his shoulder landed him on the IL this year, just as it had in 2022 and 2020, he was able to make 24 starts and throw 134 1/3 innings with a 3.22 ERA. His 22.4% strikeout rate and 7.8% walk rate were both close to league average, though he may have benefitted from a .266 batting average on balls in play and 79.7% strand rate. His 3.89 FIP and 4.43 SIERA suggest his ERA might not be wholly sustainable.

As mentioned in the Lugo section above, the Padres are facing a budget crunch. Though they are likely pleased with Wacha’s results in 2023, would they want to give him a pay raise by triggering that option? If they pass on that, Wacha would likely turn down his player option and return to free agency. He would be eligible for a qualifying offer at that point, which would be a higher salary than the club option but on a shorter commitment. The Padres effectively have to decide between 1/20 or 2/32 or simply letting Wacha walk.

Long Shot

Some fans of the Yankees might shudder at the thought of the club bringing back Montas at a higher salary, but it’s not a completely crazy idea. Though he was hurt or ineffective from the moment he donned pinstripes, he’s not too far removed from some strong results. From 2019 to 2021, he posted an ERA of 3.51 over 336 innings pitched. In that time, he struck out 26.3% of batters faced, issued walks at a 7.3% clip and kept 43.7% of batted balls on the ground. Among pitchers with at least 300 innings pitched in that time, that ERA ranked him 21st in the majors. Even in 2022, prior to the infamous trade, he was still quite good. He registered an ERA of 3.18 in his 19 starts for the A’s that year.

Players returning from injury absences can often still find themselves big salaries on short-term deals. Noah Syndergaard got one year and $21MM from the Angels after missing most of 2020 and 2021 rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. Corey Kluber got $11MM from the Yankees even though he was 35 years old and made just eight appearances over the two previous campaigns. James Paxton got $10MM from the Red Sox under similar circumstances.

The Yankees have a couple of long-term contracts in their rotation with Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón. The latter hasn’t worked out well so far, with Rodón injured for much of 2023. The club needs rotation reinforcements with Michael King, Clarke Schmidt and Nestor Cortes pencilled into the back end, each of whom comes with some question marks. They could add another marquee free agent, but maybe they’d prefer to take a short-term flier on a player they have obviously liked for a long time, giving up four prospects to acquire him and Lou Trivino just over a year ago. They then agreed to a $7.5MM arbitration salary for 2023 even as questions about his shoulder lingered.

Though there’s an argument for the possibility, it ultimately seems like the odds are against this happening. The Montas trade has gone so poorly, both from an on-field perspective and a PR one, that it’s hard to envision the club doubling down. If Montas doesn’t receive the QO, he will likely be fielding one-year offers slightly below the $20.5MM salary range.

Ineligible

As mentioned up top, players are only eligible to receive the qualifying offer if they haven’t received one previously and also spent the entire year with just one MLB club. Rodriguez and Stroman, who can each opt out of their respective contracts, have each been issued a QO earlier in their career. Flaherty, Giolito and Montgomery were all traded midseason, which makes them ineligible as well. Players coming from other leagues aren’t eligible either, so Yamamoto and Imanaga won’t have the QO in play. For each of these pitchers, the lack of a QO helps their earning power since clubs won’t have to forfeit any draft picks to sign them.

NL Notes: Brewers, Dodgers, Dombrowski

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Back in May, Brewers principal owner Mark Attanasio discussed the club’s desire to secure state funding for renovations to American Family Field, the club’s stadium in Milwaukee which is publicly owned and leased to the Brewers. At the time Attanasio mentioned that public officials in the state had indicated that they hope to extend the club’s lease at the stadium, which currently runs through 2030, through at least 2050.

Those efforts passed a significant milestone yesterday, as Jessie Opoien and Tom Daykin of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel relayed yesterday that the Wisconsin state assembly voted 69-27 in support of a measure that would provide $546MM in funding for stadium renovations and improvements, to be paid both through the aforementioned 2050 date. $411MM of that total funding bill would fall to the state of Wisconsin, while the remaining $135MM would be covered by Milwaukee county and the city of Milwaukee. Opoien and Daykin add that the Brewers would provide an additional $100MM toward the financing plan.

As noted in the article, American Family Field is owned by the Southeast Wisconsin Professional Baseball Park District, an agency created by the state that leases the ballpark out to the Brewers. Per the terms of the lease, the state is required to provide the majority of the funding for what Opoien and Daykin describe as “long-term maintenance and renovations” of the park, with winterizing the ballpark noted as one possible renovation under consideration. The pair go on to note that the plan stipulates that the club will be required to designate one home game per month of the regular season as a discount day for residents of Wisconsin.

Passage through the state assembly is far from the final hurdle for the deal, though the bills passed have the support of the relevant executives in Wisconsin governor Tony Evers, Milwaukee mayor Cavalier Johnson, and county executive David Crowley. The next step in the process is for the package to secure passage through the state senate, which Opoien an Daykin note is likely to require changes to help raise money for the funding plan. Still, the deal’s progress is surely encouraging for Brewers fans after rumors of potential relocation following the expiration of the club’s current lease in 2030 began to percolate back in August.

More from around the NL…

  • While discussing the organization’s recent end-of-season press conference, Jack Harris of the LA Times noted that the Dodgers explored trades for right-hander Pablo Lopez and left-hander Jordan Montgomery “over the last year,” though no deal came together with Harris noting that the costs of acquiring either pitcher would’ve been beyond what the Dodgers considered to be fair value. The fact that LA recently pursued a deal for Montgomery is hardly a surprise, given they had previously been reported to have interest in his services at the trade deadline. Lopez, however, is a more noteworthy mention as the last rumors connecting the right-hander, who was shipped from the Marlins to the Twins last offseason, were from the 2022 trade deadline. The Dodgers, of course, saw their starting rotation break down throughout the year due to injuries and under-performance, culminating in Clayton Kershaw, Bobby Miller and Lance Lynn combining to allow 13 runs over just 4 2/3 innings of work across their three starts during the NLDS as the club was swept out of the postseason at the hands of the Diamondbacks.
  • Phillies principal owner John Middleton spoke to WEEI’s Rob Bradford recently regarding the club’s pursuit of current president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski, who the club hired following the shortened 2020 season. The hiring has been an unmitigated success to this point, with the Phillies currently ahead 2-0 in the NLCS against the Diamondbacks and well on their way to a possible second consecutive World Series appearance under Dombrowski’s guidance. At the time, however, Middleton notes that Dombrowski was reluctant to leave his position with the Nashville Stars group, which hopes to lure a potential expansion team to Nashville in the near future. Per Middleton, Dombrowski’s initial contract included a clause that allowed him to depart the Phillies in the event that Nashville was successful in luring an expansion team during his tenure in Philadelphia. Dombrowski extended with the club last offseason through the 2027 campaign, though it’s unclear if his new contract contains a similar clause.

Cardinals Have Discussed Coaching Job With Yadier Molina

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The Cardinals and Yadier Molina have had discussions about him joining the major league coaching staff next year, reports Katie Woo of The Athletic. The report adds that there’s mutual interest from both parties.

Molina is obviously well known around baseball and particularly in St. Louis. He just wrapped up a playing career that went from 2004 to 2022, all of that in Cardinal red. Now 41, he has previously expressed a desire to move towards managing/coaching in his post-playing career, having already gotten some experience outside of Major League Baseball. Molina has done some managing in the Venezuelan Professional Baseball League as well as acting as skipper for Puerto Rican teams in international play, including the most recent World Baseball Classic.

His potential role with the Cardinals next year isn’t exactly clear, but Woo relays that it’s expected it would be an everyday position. It doesn’t currently appear as though any of the current coaches are in jeopardy, with Molina likely to be an addition rather than a replacement. Woo points out that the club had one of the smaller staffs in the league in 2023, with some players apparently expressing that there “simply wasn’t enough coaching to go around,” in Woo’s words.

Adding another coach, whether Molina or someone else, would obviously help if that’s a real problem for manager Oli Marmol and the rest of the staff. But Molina specifically could be a good fit, given his legendary status in the organization. There’s also the fact that the post-Molina era didn’t kick off with a bang. During Molina’s time as the club’s backstop, they made frequent postseason appearances and only finished below .500 once, back in 2007. But the first season after his retirement saw the club go 71-91 and fall to the basement of the National League Central.

There were whispers that some members of the St. Louis pitching staff weren’t happy with the transition to Willson Contreras, who was signed last offseason to take over Molina’s job behind the plate. Contreras was even moved off the catching position for a time this year, working as the designated hitter only, though he was back behind the plate a week later. If there’s any lingering discord between the pitchers and Contreras, perhaps Molina’s presence as a coach could help to bridge that gap.

Turning to the club’s roster, Woo discusses the club’s impending rotation work. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak has openly expressed a desire to bring in three starting pitchers this winter, in order to replace the retiring Adam Wainwright and impending free agents Jack Flaherty and Jordan Montgomery, both of whom were traded prior to the deadline. Free agency is obviously one avenue to pursuing upgrades, but the Cardinals haven’t traditionally been big spenders in that regard. Their largest free agent signing in franchise history is the $120MM deal they gave to Matt Holliday back in 2010, with Mike Leake’s $80MM deal in 2015 the largest they’ve given to a pitcher.

It seems they are giving some thought to breaking one or both of those records. They have already been connected to Sonny Gray and Aaron Nola, each of whom would likely require a deal larger than Leake’s in order to sign. Woo adds that the club is open to a reunion with Montgomery, though he’s likely pushing his next contract well into nine-figure territory, based both on his regular season work and strong playoff performance with the Rangers thus far.

Woo also adds that the Cards will “check in” on Japanese hurler Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported last week that the club is indeed interested in Yamamoto, though the extent of that interest isn’t clear. Speculation around Yamamoto’s potential contract seems to suggest he could be in line for something around $200MM, based both on his youth and his excellent results in Nippon Professional Baseball. Having just turned 25 in August, he’s far younger than typical free agents, and he also has an ERA of 1.82 over his seven NPB seasons.

Giving out a mega deal for a starting pitcher would be new territory for the Cards, but it sounds like they are exploring every avenue in order to put this rough season behind them. That will likely involve trading from their position player mix as well, though who they are willing to part with remains to be seen.

Rangers Rotation Could Be A Strength In ALCS

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Over the 2022-23 offseason, the Rangers concentrated their attention and resources on the rotation. They signed Jacob deGrom, the biggest name on the market, and Nathan Eovaldi, a World Series champion and postseason hero. They re-signed Martin Perez, an 11-year veteran and a 2022 All-Star. They took a chance on the injury-prone Andrew Heaney, who flashed dominant strikeout stuff over the second half of the season.

Suffice it to say, very little went according to plan. deGrom went down at the end of April. Eovaldi looked like a Cy Young contender through the All-Star break, but a forearm strain ruined the second half of his season. Perez, meanwhile, struggled so badly through the first four months that he wound up in the bullpen after the trade deadline. Heaney was a similar case; he lasted longer in the rotation but never quite found his groove, and he landed in the bullpen in September. Jon Gray, who signed with Texas a year prior, was reliable for much of the season but suffered a forearm strain of his own in late September.

That’s a whole lot of misfortune for a team that still finished fifth in the AL in rotation ERA and FanGraphs WAR, not to mention a team that made the playoffs and swept its way to the ALCS. While the pre-season plan didn’t exactly work out, the Rangers made the best of some tough breaks with depth and aggressive trades at the deadline. Now, as they prepare to take on the Astros, the rotation could be as strong as it’s been since April.

Eovaldi has put his rough September far behind him with two phenomenal postseason starts. Across 13 2/3 innings, he has given up just two runs while striking out 15 and walking none. The righty is harkening back to his performance with the 2018 Red Sox, but even then, he was never quite as effective as he’s been over his last two outings.

Meanwhile, trade deadline acquisition Jordan Montgomery has been superb, pitching to a 2.79 ERA in August and September and a 3.27 ERA in the playoffs. While he has had a few rough starts, including his performance against the Orioles on Sunday, he has looked dominant more often than not, such as in his gem against the Rays last Tuesday.

Those two will lead the way in the ALCS, and with several off days between their victory last night and Game 1 on Sunday, the Rangers can set up their rotation however they’d like. That means Montgomery in Game 1, Eovaldi in Game 2, and no need to piggyback Heaney and Dane Dunning to open the series. In fact, Texas might not need to piggyback Heaney and Dunning at all.

Max Scherzer, another deadline addition for Texas, is approaching a preternatural return from a teres major strain. He seemed like a long shot for the playoffs until relatively recently, but he has been ramping up his throwing program in October, and now it looks like he could make the ALCS roster. As Evan Grant reported for The Dallas Morning News, the three-time Cy Young winner threw a simulated game on Wednesday, and he feels good about his chances to pitch against the Astros.

Grant had a similarly positive update about Gray, who plans to ramp up his rehab this week. He is not as far along as Scherzer, but he also didn’t miss as much time. If he gets back on a mound in the coming days, he, too, could be ready for the ALCS.

Neither Scherzer nor Gray is likely to pitch deep into a game. It’s a good thing, then, that manager Bruce Bochy has several converted starters in his bullpen. Not all of them will make the roster if Scherzer and Gray both return, but even so, the Rangers have plenty of options to pitch the middle innings. A rotation of Montgomery, Eovaldi, Scherzer, and Gray (with Heaney, Dunning, and Perez providing depth) should give Texas a chance to win every time out.

The starting rotation was supposed to be a strength for the Rangers this year. At the best of times, it has been just that, but more often than not, it’s been a large, looming question mark instead. The questions will remain until Scherzer and Gray actually take the ball, but all the same, this rotation is in a better place than it has been for quite some time.

Rangers Move Martín Pérez To Bullpen

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The Rangers brought in some new additions to their rotation at the deadline, acquiring both Max Scherzer from the Mets and Jordan Montgomery from the Cardinals. One of them will replace Nathan Eovaldi, who recently landed on the injured list. Another opening will be created by veteran Martín Pérez getting bumped to the bullpen, reports Shawn McFarland of The Dallas Morning News. “It doesn’t mean that’s where he’s going to stay,” manager Bruce Bochy said of the move for Pérez. “But for this time around, that’s the plan.”

Pérez, 32, has a long track of being a serviceable major league pitcher. By the end of the 2021 season, he had tossed 1102 2/3 innings, allowing 4.71 earned runs per nine innings. His 15.3% strikeout rate was well below average, but his 8.3% walk rate and 49.2% ground ball were both solid enough to allow him to be of use.

For 2022, he signed a one-year, $4MM deal with the Rangers and went on to have a career year. He made 32 starts and posted a 2.89 ERA over 196 1/3 innings, getting his strikeout rate up to a career high of 20.6% while still limiting walks and grounders. That earned him a well-deserved raise, as the Rangers issued him a $19.65MM qualifying offer, which he accepted.

Unfortunately, he hasn’t been able to build off that late-career breakout. His strikeout bump has vanished, as his 14.4% rate this year is low even by his standards. The walk rate is still solid at 8.6% but he’s only getting grounders at a 41% clip, a huge drop from last year’s 51.4% rate. His ERA on the year is 4.98, with only five qualified pitchers worse than him in that department this year. It’s also been trending in a bad direction, as he had a 2.41 ERA at the end of April but a 6.15 mark since the start of May.

With those results, it’s not shocking that he’s been nudged out of the starting mix. This is a road he has travelled down before, as the Red Sox bumped him to the bullpen in 2021, though he was able to get back on track with the aforementioned breakout in 2022. Perhaps he will do so again at some point but the Texas rotation will now seem to consist of Scherzer, Montgomery, Jon Gray, Andrew Heaney and Dane Dunning.

Dunning started the year in the bullpen but jumped into the rotation when Jacob deGrom landed on the injured list, later to require Tommy John surgery. In 16 starts since the start of May, Dunning has a 3.43 ERA. His 17.6% strikeout rate in that time isn’t especially impressive but he’s higher than Pérez in that department while also walking just 6.7% of hitters and keeping the ball on the ground at a 44.9% clip.

It seems those strong results will allow him to keep his starting gig, at least for the time being. As Bochy mentioned, the club could mix things up again in the months to come, though the group could get a bit more crowded. Bochy expects the club to have Eovaldi back after a minimum IL stint, per Kennedi Landry of MLB.com, which will make it harder both for Pérez to get back in the mix and for Dunning to keep his spot. Perhaps Eovaldi’s return would see Dunning hold his spot and Heaney get bumped to the bullpen since the latter has a lackluster 4.36 ERA on the season. But he has been trending better of late, with a 2.95 mark in his last four outings.

Of course, the final few months could also see some plot twists that change all of this, best laid plans and whatnot. The AL West is shaping up to be a fascinating race to watch in the final months, as the Rangers made their aforementioned rotation additions while the Astros got Justin Verlander and the Angels nabbed Lucas Giolito. The Rangers will undoubtedly be making whatever moves they feel give them the best shot at success in the weeks to come, with the large salary of Pérez not enough to keep him from the bullpen. He’ll return to the open market this winter while Dunning will qualify for arbitration for the first time.

Rangers Acquire Jordan Montgomery, Chris Stratton

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The Rangers continue to bolster their pitching ranks, as ESPN’s Jeff Passan (Twitter links) reports that Texas and St. Louis have completed a trade to send Jordan Montgomery and Chris Stratton to Arlington.  The Cardinals will receive left-hander John King, as well as infield prospect Thomas Saggese and right-handed pitching prospect Tekoah Roby.  In the Rangers’ official announcement of the deal, it was noted that Texas also received an international bonus pool slot from the Cardinals.  To create roster space, Texas designated right-hander Joe Barlow for assignment.

With the Cards in seller mode, Montgomery and Stratton were seen as two of the likeliest players to be moved prior to the deadline, as both pitchers are free agents after the season.  Between this swap with the Rangers and the Cardinals’ move to send Jordan Hicks to the Blue Jays earlier this afternoon, it’s fair to guess that Jack Flaherty (another pending free agent) might also soon be headed elsewhere, and St. Louis could also look to some surplus position players with more team control as the Cards look to reload for 2024.

As for the Rangers, acquiring Max Scherzer on Saturday and now Montgomery today throughout reinforces the team’s rotation.  Despite season-ending injuries to Jacob deGrom and Jake Odorizzi, Texas had gotten solid results from its starters for much of the year, but some cracks have begun to show.  Most prominently, Nathan Eovaldi hasn’t pitched since July 18, and was placed on the 15-day injured list today due to a forearm strain.

It’s an ominous diagnosis for a pitcher who already has two Tommy John surgeries on his health history, and the Rangers obviously aren’t taking any chances with Eovaldi’s recovery or in their pitching staff’s ability to thrive without Eovaldi in action.  Manager Bruce Bochy told reporters (including MLB.com’s Kennedi Landry) today that the team is “pretty confident” Eovaldi will be able to return after just the minimum 15 days, though Eovaldi will visit with a doctor for precautionary purposes.

Scherzer and Montgomery now join a rotation that also includes Martin Perez, Jon Gray, Andrew Heaney, and Dane Dunning, though it remains to be seen if Texas will stick with a six-man staff.  Keeping an extra starter might be useful to help keep everyone fresh for the pennant race (and, the Rangers hope, through October), yet moving Dunning back to a relief role might also be an option.  On the other hand, Dunning has pitched quite well since his return to starting work, whereas Perez and Heaney have been much more inconsistent and Gray has been struggling over the last month.

Montgomery was already part of a notable deadline trade last year, when the Yankees sent the left-hander to the Cardinals in a one-for-one trade for Harrison Bader.  In his first full year with the Cardinals, Montgomery has a 3.42 ERA over 121 innings, though his SIERA is a less-impressive 4.30.  The southpaw has done his usual above-average job of avoiding free passes (6.9% walk rate) and limiting hard contact, though Montgomery now has a second straight season of a below-average strikeout rate (21.2%).  While Montgomery has never been a huge strikeout pitcher, his whiff rate has also taken a tumble to 24.1% in 2023 after years of much more solid results.

If Scherzer is expected to be more of a front-of-the-rotation arm, then Montgomery represents a mid-rotation starter who can be relied on to take the ball every fifth (or sixth) day and deliver respectable results.  Likewise, Stratton won’t be displacing Will Smith as the Rangers’ closer or even taking over a top set-up role, but he gives Texas another good arm for higher-leverage situtions late in games.

Montgomery and Stratton will each be reuniting with Mike Maddux, who was the Cardinals’ pitching coach from 2018-22 before moving on to join the Rangers’ coaching staff this year.  Stratton is also a known quantity to skipper Bruce Bochy, as Stratton broke into the majors in the Giants organization back when Bochy was managing the team in 2016.

Stratton is also on the move for the second straight year at the deadline, as the Pirates sent Jose Quintana and Stratton to the Cardinals last August.  Stratton’s 2022 numbers picked up considerably after that deal, and he has somewhat continued that form this season, even if his bottom-line results haven’t been reflective.  Stratton has a 4.36 ERA in 53 2/3 innings, though a 3.48 SIERA and 3.06 FIP indicate some bad luck on Stratton’s part, perhaps due to an unusually low 61.6% strand rate.

The right-hander doesn’t have the high-velocity arsenal associated with most relievers, nor are his hard-contact or walk rates anything special.  However, Stratton does bring durability in his ability to pitch multiple innings, and he has some of the most elite fastball and curveball spin rates of any pitcher in baseball.

Without any reports of money changing hands between the two teams, it looks like the Rangers will be absorbing the remainder of the 2023 salaries for Montgomery (roughly $3.5MM) and Stratton (around $1MM).  It’s not a big financial commitment to a team that has already been splurging on big-name talent over the last two seasons, and Roster Resource projects that Texas is still just barely under the $233MM luxury tax threshold.  The Rangers reportedly don’t have any issue crossing the tax threshold, so if another upgrade presents itself before Tuesday’s trade deadline, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the front office make another deal or two.

Among the players going back to the Cardinals, King is the best-known name to fans, as the lefty has a 4.27 ERA over 126 1/3 innings out of the Texas bullpen since he made his big league debut in 2020.  A grounder specialist who has a very impressive 61.7% career groundball rate, King is naturally more susceptible than most to batted-ball luck, so his huge .379 BABIP over 18 2/3 innings has been the main factor in his 5.79 ERA.

The Rangers have sent King back and forth from Triple-A on a couple of occasions this season, and he is under team control through the 2026 campaign.  The Cardinals will have the rest of the year to take a look at King and see if he might be an option for their bullpen going forward, plus in a more immediate sense King will add some left-handed depth to the St. Louis relief corps.

That said, Roby and Saggese are the bigger parts of this trade from the Cards’ perspective, as they join the three youngsters obtained in the Scherzer and Hicks deals as part of the sudden reload of the St. Louis farm system.  MLB Pipeline ranked Roby as the Rangers’ 11th-best prospect and Saggese 14th, while Baseball America had a similar tack in placing Roby 13th and Saggese 15th.

Roby was a third-round pick for Texas in the 2020 draft, and he has a 5.05 ERA over 46 1/3 innings and 10 starts at Double-A Frisco this season.  While he has cut back on his walks and home runs allowed, Roby’s strikeout rate has also tumbled during his three pro seasons, though his 25.6% mark this year is still respectable.  The scouting reports from both Pipeline and BA pinpoint Roby’s command as his biggest issue, as his overall arsenal is solid.  Pipeline gives a 55 grade (on the 20-80 scale) to all four of Roby’s pitches, though their report notes that the 21-year-old “may not have a true plus pitch” as a go-to offering.

Adding Roby will help St. Louis restock the minor league pitching ranks, while Saggese seems to fit the Cardinals’ preferred profile of a multi-positional infielder.  Saggese has mostly played second and third base over his three pro seasons, while also getting a good chunk of action as a shortstop.  He isn’t necessarily a standout defender at any position, but Pipeline liked his ability to stick at second base, and Saggese’s versatility is surely an asset as he climbs the ladder towards the big leagues.

The 21-year-old was also a 2020 draft pick (taken in the fifth round), and Saggese has done nothing but hit in the minors, including a .314/.380/.514 slash line and 15 homers over 417 plate appearances at Double-A in 2023.  The pundits note that Saggese’s aggression at the plate can sometimes backfire, yet he has shown a bit more patience this season with an 8.2% walk rate.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Cardinals Rumors: Montgomery, Flaherty, Bullpen, Outfield

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The Cardinals are perhaps the most intriguing seller of this trade deadline. The preseason favorite for the NL Central expected to build upon a 93-win campaign in 2022, the team has failed to live up to expectations with a brutal 46-60 record that leaves them in last place in the division and ahead of only the Rockies and Nationals in the NL. With the club’s eyes turned toward the future, speculation has run rampant regarding many of the club’s interesting pieces, both those who are set to hit free agency after the season and those who are under team control longer-term.

Despite their status as the league’s premiere seller, the Cardinals have largely been quiet to this point with the trade deadline just over 48 hours away. While reports earlier in the week hinted at the possibility of a blockbuster involving third baseman Nolan Arenado, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak firmly shut those rumors down yesterday. While Arenado may not be on the move, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch recently discussed a bevy of other rumors regarding the club’s options ahead of the trade deadline.

Most clearly positioned to move over the next two days are the club’s duo of mid-rotation rental starters: left-hander Jordan Montgomery and right-hander Jack Flaherty. Goold notes that both players, along with closer Jordan Hicks, are generating interest throughout the league, though the returns on each of those players, if traded by themselves, would reportedly not fit the mold of the Cardinals’ preferred return: controllable, major-league ready starting pitching.

That’s hardly a surprise, given controllable starters are typically regarded as some of the most valuable commodities in the sport. Given this, Goold indicates that the club could get creative and pair rental players with younger, controllable pieces would yield their desired return. In particular, Goold name-checks outfielders Alec Burleson and Dylan Carlson alongside relievers Giovanny Gallegos and Ryan Helsley as longer-term pieces who could be moved. In terms of potential Cardinals targets, Goold references both Yankees prospect Clayton Beeter and Mariners right-hander Logan Gilbert, though Goold cautions that Gilbert would require a “high-ceiling return.”

Recent reporting had previously indicated trade interest in Burleson from multiple clubs, and Goold reaffirms the Yankees’ previously reported interest in Carlson. Goold adds that, in addition to Carlson, the Yankees have interest in Hicks, who has also drawn interest from the Rangers. Additionally, Goold notes that the market for Flaherty and Montgomery includes the Marlins, who have scouted Flaherty in person this trade season, while the Rays are noted to have interest in St. Louis’s available pitchers more generally.

While Miami is seemingly focused on Flaherty among the club’s duo of rental starters, Jon Morosi of MLBNetwork reported last night that talks surrounding Montgomery were “gaining momentum” and that a deal was becoming increasingly likely. While Morosi didn’t specify which team the Cardinals were discussing Montgomery with, he noted that both the Diamondbacks and Orioles have engaged in discussions with St. Louis in recent days.

Dodgers Rumors: Verlander, E-Rod, Singer, Keller, Cardinals, Scherzer, Canha, Pham

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The Dodgers have already both added and subtracted from their pitching mix prior to the deadline, acquiring Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly from the White Sox while also shipping out Noah Syndergaard to the Guardians in exchange for Amed Rosario.  Between these moves and the re-acqusition of old friend Enrique Hernandez from the Red Sox, Los Angeles has already checked several boxes on their wishlist with over three days to go until the trade deadline, but more transactions seem likely given the Dodgers’ aggression.

Pitching remains the focus, as while Lynn will theoretically fill one hole, Lynn’s inconsistency and the Dodgers’ relative lack of rotation has put a lot of other hurlers on the team’s radar.  According to Jack Harris and Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times, the Dodgers’ list of targets include Justin Verlander, Eduardo Rodriguez, Brady Singer, Mitch Keller, Jack Flaherty, and Jordan Montgomery.  Beyond Verlander, the Dodgers are also looking at a couple of other Mets players to address their outfield needs, as The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya reports that Tommy Pham and Mark Canha are of interest.

One Met who apparently isn’t under heavy consideration is Max Scherzer, as Harris/Castillo write that “the likelihood…isn’t as strong” of Scherzer heading to Chavez Ravine at another trade deadline.  L.A. memorably landed Scherzer and Trea Turner from the Nationals two years ago, but Scherzer was a rental at the time, just two-plus months away from free agency.  Scherzer implied yesterday that he would be exercising his $43.333MM player option for 2024, and with the Mets likely to ask for a strong trade return, the uncertainty over that player option makes Scherzer a pricey add both financially (he is also still owed $16MM for the rest of 2023) and from a prospect cost.

Given how aggressive the Dodgers have been, a Scherzer reunion might not be entirely ruled out until either the team makes another pitching move, or until Scherzer is potentially shipped elsewhere.  With Verlander, Pham and Canha also apparently under discussion, the Dodgers’ talks with the Mets could go in several directions between now and Tuesday’s 5pm CT deadline.

Similarly, there are plenty of layers to the negotiations between the Dodgers and Cardinals, as Nolan Arenado is yet another star name Los Angeles has explored.  In a move akin to that Scherzer/Turner blockbuster of 2021, the Dodgers could aim to land both a major position player and a rental pitcher (either Montgomery or Flaherty) in the same deal.  Harris/Castillo note that L.A. might also pursue either Montgomery or Flaherty on their own, should the more complicated machinations of an Arenado deal fall through.

Rodriguez has drawn attention from several other teams as the deadline approaches, and the Tigers left-hander’s status is also impacted by a contractual option.  Rodriguez has the ability to opt out of his contract after the season, leaving three years and $49MM on the table in search of a richer and longer-term deal.  An opt-out seems like a distinct possibility the way E-Rod has been pitching, yet an injury or a drop in form (with the Tigers or a new team) could certainly still occur post-deadline, leading to a change in his thinking.  If this did happen after a trade, a new club could find itself on the books for $49MM of a suddenly distressed asset, which surely factors into the thinking of the Dodgers and any other team considering the southpaw.

Beyond these veteran rental players, the Dodgers are also slightly expanding their perimeters to look at more controllable pitchers.  The Pirates have arbitration control on Keller through the 2025 season, while the Royals have Singer arb-controlled through 2026.  Keller seems like the longer shot, as Pittsburgh is perhaps only listening to trade offers out of due diligence, and would command a huge prospect return in any deal.  While Los Angeles is one of the teams with the prospect depth to perhaps get the Pirates’ attention, it doesn’t seem likely that the Bucs will move Keller anywhere at the deadline or even in the near future, as Pittsburgh may have an eye on fully turning the corner back into contending in 2024.

“No traction toward a deal has materialized” between the Dodgers and Royals, so Singer is probably also not on the move.  The former first-rounder has a breakout season in 2022 but has struggled to a 5.46 ERA over 113 2/3 innings this year, albeit with a somewhat more favorable 4.41 SIERA.  It is possible that L.A. was looking to buy low on the righty (who turns 27 next week), just in case Kansas City was considering a wider-range rebuild in the wake of its disastrous 2023 season.  The Royals are in a tough spot given the lack of production from almost all of their projected cornerstone young players, yet while it isn’t clear what the next step will be for the franchise, it does seem too soon for K.C. to give up on Singer, one of the few members of that group who has had some level of success in the majors.

Returning to Verlander, he would also bring a bit more control than a rental player, as he owed $43.333MM in 2024 and he can earn a $35MM player option for 2025 if he pitches at least 140 innings in 2024.  It’s a steep price tag for a pitcher who turns 41 in February, as even though Verlander has pitched closer to his vintage form in the last few weeks, he missed time earlier this year due to a teres major strain and was then shaky in his first few starts of 2023.

Perhaps more relevant to August 1, Verlander has a full no-trade clause in his contract, and said earlier this week that “I’m focused on being a Met.  I want to win here…Obviously it hasn’t gone according to plan just yet, but I didn’t sign a one-year deal.”  Since the Mets have already started to trade veterans and look ahead to 2024, it is possible Verlander might change his mind should a contender make an offer, and there has been a connection between Verlander and Los Angeles in the past.  The Dodgers pushed to sign Verlander in free agency last winter, with Harris/Castillo writing that L.A. offered the future Hall-of-Famer two years and $80MM.

Cardinals, Jordan Hicks Discussing Extension

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The Cardinals are exploring a multi-year contract extension with closer Jordan Hicks, reports Katie Woo of the Athletic. Woo suggests there’s a good chance a deal can be finalized within the next day. An impending free agent, the hard-throwing righty profiles as one of the top bullpen trade candidates this summer. Obviously, an extension in advance of next Tuesday’s trade deadline would take him off the market.

Hicks, 27 in September, is amidst one of the better seasons of his career. He owns a 3.67 ERA across 41 2/3 innings in 40 appearances. He’s striking hitters out at a personal-best 31.2% rate while inducing grounders on a huge 58.2% of batted balls. Hicks and Twins’ star Jhoan Durán are the only relievers (minimum 30 innings) with a strikeout rate north of 30% and a ground-ball rate exceeding 55%.

That outlier combination of whiffs and grounders is built on velocity almost unmatched around the league. Hicks averages an eye-popping 100.5 MPH on the sinker that serves as his go-to offering. Only Durán and Aroldis Chapman throw harder.

Hicks hasn’t found the same level of success that Durán and Chapman have managed at their best, however. The St. Louis hurler has allowed just under four earned runs per nine innings over 219 1/3 career frames. That’s mostly a reflection of well below-average control. He’s walking just under 13% of opponents this season and has dished out free passes at a 13.2% clip for his career.

Various health concerns also undercut him for a while after a promising debut. Hicks combined for just 38 2/3 innings between 2019-21. He underwent Tommy John surgery midway through the ’19 season. Unlikely to return until the tail end of 2020 regardless, Hicks (who has Type 1 diabetes) opted out of playing that year because of COVID-19 concerns. He battled renewed elbow discomfort the next season and was limited to just 10 appearances. He missed a month between May and June last year because of a flexor issue in his forearm but has avoided the injured list this season.

Even with the health history and bouts of wildness, Hicks would be a sensible trade target for contenders seeking bullpen help. He’s a high-octane arm who has stepped back into a high-leverage role for St. Louis, picking up eight saves and six holds. The Cards clearly value him enough to consider keeping him around beyond this season, though it remains to be seen if a deal will get across the finish line. Woo unsurprisingly notes that the 45-56 club would very likely trade Hicks if they don’t reach an extension in the coming days.

To be clear, the dialogue with Hicks’ camp is not a sign that St. Louis is walking back its forthcoming sell off. Woo reiterates that the Cards plan to trade Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty, as ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote this morning. The Cardinals had not had any extension dialogue with Montgomery’s or Flaherty’s camps before the All-Star Break, Woo writes. Both starters are impending free agents.

Montgomery would be a lock to receive and reject a qualifying offer, so the Cards could at least ensure a compensatory draft choice if he departs as a free agent. They’re likely to receive a more compelling prospect package for one of the top starters available within the next few days, though. Flaherty is less likely to receive the QO (which Hicks also wouldn’t get), so the Cards likely wouldn’t get any compensation if those players were neither traded nor extended.

Additionally, Woo reports that the Cardinals are finding trade interest in each of Chris Stratton, Giovanny Gallegos and Ryan Helsley. Stratton is an obvious trade candidate as an impending free agent middle reliever. There’s less urgency to move the latter two arms, as both can stick around beyond this season. Gallegos is under contract for $5.5MM next year, while his deal has a $6.5MM club option for 2025. Helsley is eligible for arbitration through the ’25 season and making a modest $2.15MM this season.

It’s sensible for St. Louis to at least consider offers, although it’d be an odd time to move Helsley. Gallegos has had a sub-4.00 ERA in each of the past five seasons. He carries a 3.92 mark with slightly above-average strikeout and walk numbers in 41 1/3 innings this year.

Helsley, owner of a fastball that sits in the upper 90s, has a 3.20 ERA with a 32% strikeout percentage in 25 frames on the season. He’s been down since June 12 with a forearm strain and was just transferred to the 60-day injured list yesterday, officially ruling him out into the second week of August. Players on the IL can still be traded, so a deal is possible. Still, it stands to reason other clubs will be wary of offering a prospect package commensurate with Helsley’s peak value at a time when there’s notable health uncertainty.

Cardinals Expect To Move DeJong, Several Pitchers; O’Neill Unlikely To Be Traded

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The Cardinals’ logjam in the outfield has been well-documented by now, but one path to alleviating that situation apparently isn’t under consideration at this time; Katie Woo of The Athletic reports that the Cardinals plan to hold onto O’Neill at this year’s deadline.

Elsewhere on the roster, the Cards have made clear to other clubs that they expect to trade starters Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty as well as shortstop Paul DeJong, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports. Passan adds Jordan Hicks as a possible trade candidate, and it’s only natural that righty Chris Stratton — another potential free agent — would also be on the block.

Moving the 28-year-old O’Neill at this stage would unequivocally be selling low. The two-time Gold Glove winner and eighth-place finisher in 2021 NL MVP voting has played in just 130 games since Opening Day 2022, batting a paltry (by his standards) .229/.309/.381 in 502 plate appearances along the way. It’s a far cry from O’Neill’s mammoth .286/.352/.560 batting line and 34 homers in 2021.

The Cards control O’Neill through the 2024 season, as he’ll be arbitration-eligible for the final time this offseason. Woo quotes both O’Neill and manager Oli Marmol in a piece that Cards fans, in particular, will want to read. Broadly speaking, the organization believes an emphasis on routine and collaborative communication can help O’Neill remain on the field more regularly (though that makes the decision to buck his routine by placing him in center field early in the season seem particularly curious).

O’Neill is one of several outfielders vying for playing time in St. Louis. Lars Nootbaar has become entrenched in center field, and top prospect Jordan Walker is currently patrolling right field. O’Neill’s return pushed former top prospect Dylan Carlson to a bench role, and there’s been ample reporting and speculation on the possibility of a Carlson trade looming on the horizon. First baseman/outfielder and utilitymen extraordinaire Brendan Donovan and Tommy Edman also factor into the outfield mix — at times being pushed there by Nolan Gorman’s presence at second base.

The Cards would also be selling low on Carlson in many ways, though the 24-year-old switch-hitter’s remaining three seasons of club control beyond the current year give him more appeal than O’Neill’s one remaining year. Carlson’s ability to play all three outfield spots — center field, in particular — at a high level could also increase the chances of landing direly needed controllable pitching in a trade. O’Neill certainly isn’t likely to command that type of return on the heels of two injury-plagued seasons; he only just returned from a 60-day IL stint thanks to a back strain.

The likely trades of Montgomery and Flaherty have been discussed ad nauseum by now. Both are free agents at season’s end. Montgomery is the more valuable arm at present, touting a 3.37 ERA, 21.7% strikeout rate, 6.4% walk rate and 45.2% grounder rate in 115 innings. He’d be a veritable lock to receive and reject a qualifying offer, so the Cardinals figure to insist on greater value than a 2024 compensatory pick in return. He’s being $10.01MM in 2023.

Flaherty looked like a burgeoning ace in 2019 but has seen several recent seasons ruined by injury. He’s been healthy in ’23, pitching 104 2/3 innings of 4.49 ERA ball. His 22.2% strikeout rate is roughly average, but his 11.3% walk rate is a glaring red flag. He’s three years younger than Montgomery and earning roughly half the salary ($5.4MM) in 2023, however.

DeJong’s status as a likely trade target registers as a clear bonus for the Cards. Entering the season, he didn’t even appear like a lock to make the roster, having slashed just .182/.269/.352 in 190 games from 2021-22. But DeJong has enjoyed a rebound season in ’23, hitting .237/.304/.424 (101 wRC+) with his typical brand of plus defense. With about $3.29MM remaining on his contract (plus a $2MM buyout on next year’s $12.5MM option), DeJong now seems affordable and productive enough to be a viable trade candidate — particularly if the Cardinals help out financially in any sense. DeJong’s bat has cooled after a torrid start, but his overall batting line is about league average, he’s shown some power and he’s played good defense.

Both Hicks and Stratton are natural trade candidates, too. Hicks is likely more appealing and costlier to acquire, given his youth and triple-digit heater. The 26-year-old is averaging better than 100 mph on his sinker and has a 1.88 ERA dating back to early May, punching out batters at a gaudy 31.4% of his hitters with an 8.5% walk rate and mammoth 66.7% grounder rate. Stratton, 33 next month, has a 4.38 ERA with better peripheral marks (27% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate, 3.01 FIP, 3.37 SIERA).

In any trade, St. Louis is eyeing near-MLB-ready pitching, Passan adds. That, again, is hardly a surprise and has long been speculated upon, given the team’s lack of rotation clarity beyond the current season. Both Montgomery and Flaherty are free agents. Adam Wainwright is retiring. Steven Matz and Matthew Liberatore have struggled.

Many of the names in question wouldn’t fetch a close-to-the-Majors arm in a straight-up swap, but someone like DeJong or Stratton could potentially be packaged with Flaherty or Hicks to improve the Cards’ return. Either Montgomery or certainly Carlson on his own could feasibly fetch immediate but unproven pitching help — Montgomery’s status as a rental notwithstanding. For instance, the Cards themselves traded away a big league-ready arm last summer when they shipped Johan Oviedo to the division-rival Pirates in order to acquire Stratton and Jose Quintana, who was then a rental player. Oviedo has struggled in July but notched a 4.06 ERA through his first 16 starts and is controllable through the 2027 season.

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