Latest On Red Sox’s Pitching Targets
The Red Sox are known to be seeking top-of-the-rotation starting pitching. A pair of high-end starters, Aaron Nola and Sonny Gray, have come off the board. There wasn’t any indication the Sox were deeply involved in the bidding for either right-hander. Sean McAdam of MassLive writes that the Sox have been seeking to add a starter via trade before turning to free agency.
At the same time, one notable trade candidate doesn’t appear to be strongly on their radar. McAdam reports that the Red Sox have not been actively involved in discussions with the White Sox regarding Dylan Cease. The right-hander has been mentioned as a target for the Dodgers and Braves and has surely drawn unreported interest from other teams seeking rotation help.
That Boston doesn’t seem as involved in Cease discussions is a bit of a surprise. He still has two seasons of arbitration control; MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for an $8.8MM salary, a bargain price for a pitcher with his upside. Alongside Corbin Burnes, Shane Bieber and Tyler Glasnow (the latter of whom seems unlikely to land within the AL East if the Rays trade him), Cease has been the subject of plenty of trade speculation.
The 27-year-old (28 next month) isn’t coming off a great season. Cease allowed 4.58 earned runs per nine, more than two runs above the 2.20 ERA he posted in 2022. A spike in hard contact and a slight dip in strikeout rate surely contributed to that less inspiring run prevention. Yet even with that downturn in whiffs, Cease still fanned an above-average 27.2% of batters faced behind an excellent 13.6% swinging strike percentage. His fastball averaged just under 96 MPH, while his slider remained a swing-and-miss offering.
While the Sox may be focused on trade targets aside from Cease, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow and his front office are surely keeping an eye on the top hurlers on the open market. They’ve been tied to NPB star Yoshinobu Yamamoto and left-hander Jordan Montgomery. McAdam indicates the Sox also expressed some interest in Blake Snell when they met with the defending NL Cy Young winner’s representatives at the Boras Corporation during the GM Meetings.
Snell rode a laughably dominant second half to the second Cy Young of his career. He finished the year with an MLB-best 2.25 ERA across 180 innings. Snell led the majors with 99 walks but allowed only 5.8 hits per nine innings, the lowest mark for any qualified starter. That’s in large part thanks to a stellar 31.5% strikeout rate. MLBTR predicted Snell to land $200MM over seven seasons. He has also been linked to the Dodgers, Giants and incumbent Padres. McAdam suggests that Snell, a Seattle-area native, may prefer to sign with a West Coast team.
If that is indeed the case, that wouldn’t bode especially well for the Red Sox’s chances. The market’s other top southpaw, Montgomery, has a tie to the Northeast. While Montgomery is a South Carolina native, McAdam and Chris Cotillo of MassLive note that he is spending the winter in Boston while his wife McKenzie begins a medical residency at a hospital in the area. It’s not clear if that’ll have any impact on his free agent preferences.
Rangers Interested In Reunion With Jordan Montgomery
Left-hander Jordan Montgomery figures to be among the most sought-after free agents on the starting pitching market this offseason. With righty Aaron Nola having already returned to the Phillies on a seven-year deal earlier this week, only recently-posted right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto and reigning NL Cy Young award winner Blake Snell compare rank ahead of Montgomery on MLBTR’s Top 50 free agents list in terms of starting pitching options for 2024. While the Yankees, Cardinals and Red Sox have both already been connected to the southpaw this offseason, Montgomery is also receiving interest from the team he just won the World Series with. Per Jon Heyman of the New York Post, the Rangers “hope” that they’ll be able to bring Montgomery back into the fold this offseason.
That’s hardly a surprise, given the excellent form he showed since being shipped to Texas by St. Louis over the summer. In 11 starts following that deadline deal, Montgomery posted a sterling 2.79 ERA that was 60% better than league average by measure of ERA+ with a FIP of 3.27. While his 2023 strikeout rate of 21.4% was more solid than elite, his already strong 6.2% walk rate this season improved to a phenomenal 4.9% figure during his time with the Rangers down the stretch. Montgomery paired his ability to limit the free pass with a 43.2% groundball rate that placed him just outside the top-20 by that metric among qualified starters this season. It was more of the same during Montgomery’s six postseason appearances for Texas this October, during which he posted a 2.90 ERA in 31 innings of work.
Montgomery’s strong 2023 caps off a trio of three seasons that have seen the southpaw establish himself as a quality front-end starter for a playoff-caliber team. In splitting his time between the Yankees, Cardinals, and Rangers from 2021-23, Montgomery has posted a 3.48 ERA and 3.62 FIP while making at least 30 starts in each of those seasons. Over the past three seasons, Montgomery is one of just 20 pitchers to record at least 500 innings of work, a feat that establishes him as one of the game’s premiere workhorses at this point in his career.
Given his recent performance and the number of teams known to be in the market for starting pitching this offseason, Montgomery is at least a plausible fit for plenty of clubs. The Rangers are certainly included in that. While the club’s Opening Day rotation can at least be plausibly filled with Max Scherzer, Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, Dane Dunning, and Andrew Heaney, both Dunning and Heaney spent time in the bullpen for Texas in 2023 in addition to their time in the rotation. It’s also worth noting that each of Scherzer, Eovaldi, and Gray spent significant time on the injured list this past season, while Heaney has a lengthy injury history of his own.
While ace righty Jacob deGrom could return from Tommy John surgery sometime next season, deGrom wouldn’t exactly provide reliable innings coming off the second Tommy John surgery of his career and with just 186 2/3 innings of work over the past three seasons of his career. Given the substantial injury risk in the Rangers’ currently projected rotation, reuniting with Montgomery would be a sensible decision to add some stability to a front-of-the-rotation picture that otherwise features a pair of oft-injured veterans in Scherzer and Eovaldi and could add a third arm befitting of that description in deGrom later in the year.
Of course, a deal is hardly a slam-dunk even in spite of the clear fit and interest on Texas’s end of the equation. After all, Montgomery has already been linked to three other teams this offseason and plenty of clubs are in need of starting pitching help and could enter the market for his services as the offseason progresses. What’s more, the Rangers are expected to make improving the club’s bullpen a focus of their offseason after the club’s relief corps posted a brutal 4.77 ERA in 2023. Though the addition of Montgomery would allow the club to improve the bullpen by moving Heaney or Dunning into a multi-inning relief role, the club’s bullpen would likely benefit far more from the addition of a late-inning arm like Josh Hader or NPB lefty Yuki Matsui.
Such a signing wouldn’t necessarily preclude the Rangers from adding Montgomery, as they’ve hardly shied away from making multiple significant additions in recent offseasons. That being said, it’s fair to at least wonder how much the club plans on increasing its payroll (which already sits at $214MM for next year according to RosterResource) in light of recent reporting that Diamond Sports Group is considering dropping Rangers broadcasts ahead of the 2024 campaign. If Diamond were to do so, it would leave the Rangers without a distribution partner for local broadcasting, a reality that has already led the Twins toward cutting payroll this offseason.
Yankees Showing Interest In Jordan Montgomery
The Yankees seem to be considering a reunion with former rotation stalwart Jordan Montgomery, according to the New York Post’s Jon Heyman. The club has been “looking at” Montgomery as a possible offseason signing, and it appears to be slightly more than just due diligence, as Heyman writes that “the Yankees have been particular about rotation targets.” Previous reports have linked such arms as Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Frankie Montas, Yariel Rodriguez, and (before he re-signed with the Phillies) Aaron Nola to the Yankees’ pitching wishlist, and it’s probably safe to assume the Bronx Bombers have some level of interest in Shohei Ohtani even though he won’t be able to pitch in 2024.
Obviously Montgomery is a known quantity for the Yankees, having started his pro career in the pinstripes after being drafted in the fourth round in 2014. Debuting in the majors in 2017, Montgomery posted a 3.94 ERA, 22.68% strikeout rate, and 6.93% walk rate over his 502 2/3 innings with New York, establishing himself as a solid and even underrated member of the starting five.
Despite this success, the left-hander was dealt to the Cardinals at the 2022 trade deadline in a move that since become infamous in the Bronx. Harrison Bader came from St. Louis in the one-for-one-swap, and apart from a spectacular power surge during the Yankees’ 2022 playoff run, Bader’s time in New York was a disappointment. The outfielder played in only 98 regular season games due to injuries, and hit .237/.274/.353 over 359 plate appearances before the Yankees put him on waivers this past August.
Meanwhile, Montgomery’s star (and free agent price tag) only continued to rise. He pitched well for St. Louis during the rest of the 2022 season and into 2023, though the Cardinals’ own struggles saw Montgomery again on the move at the deadline, this time to the Rangers. From there, Montgomery became one of the key factors of the Rangers’ World Series run — he posted a 2.79 ERA over 67 2/3 innings in the regular season just to help Texas get into the playoffs, and the lefty then had a 2.90 ERA over 31 postseason frames.
MLBTR ranked Montgomery sixth on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agents, projecting him for a six-year, $150MM contract. Nola received the same projection and landed a seven-year, $172MM deal from Philadelphia, so it is quite possible Montgomery might also beat our prediction even though he is six months older and has a past Tommy John surgery on his record. However, Montgomery wasn’t eligible for the qualifying offer due to the midseason trade, so a team that signs him wouldn’t have to surrender any draft picks or international pool money as compensation.
This is undoubtedly of interest to a Yankees team that surpassed the luxury tax last year, and thus would pay the higher penalty of two picks and $1MM of int’l bonus money for signing any qualified free agent. New York’s interest in such players as Nola, Ohtani, or Cody Bellinger indicates that the Bombers are open to signing QO-rejecting free agents, though it’s fair to speculate that the Yankees might be willing to take the plunge for only one such player. For instance, Bellinger might be a bit of a priority since hitting is a greater need for the Yankees, but they could then also look one of many non-QO pitchers, including top-tier names like Yamamoto or Montgomery.
It is fair to speculate whether or not the past history with Montgomery and the Yankees is an obstacle in any negotiations. Naturally GM Brian Cashman would love to have a do-over of the Bader trade, and since his concerns over Montgomery’s viability as a postseason starter have now been firmly proven wrong, what better public mea culpa than a $150MM contract? Montgomery might see it as water under the bridge and be willing to return to complete some unfinished business in the Bronx. On the other hand, it seems possible that Montgomery simply wants to move on from an organization that once considered him expendable, and would prefer to join either a new team altogether or one of his other former clubs in Texas or St. Louis.
Red Sox Exploring Top Of Rotation Market
Starting pitching is a clear priority for the Red Sox. Boston’s new chief baseball officer Craig Breslow acknowledged as much last week, although they’re certainly not alone in that pursuit.
That could extend to the top end of the market. Jeff Passan of ESPN wrote on Tuesday that the Sox were targeting front-line starting pitching. Jon Heyman of the New York Post suggests Boston is looking to add multiple starters this offseason. It stands to reason Breslow and his staff could look to pair an impact acquisition with a more affordable, if lower ceiling, addition.
Free agency offers a few possibilities. The Red Sox surely have some level of interest in Shohei Ohtani, but he wouldn’t be a factor in the 2024 rotation after his elbow procedure. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Aaron Nola and Jordan Montgomery are generally regarded as the next tier of free agent starters. AL Cy Young runner-up Sonny Gray is probably below that group in earning power because he’s 34 years old but fits in terms of short-term impact.
This afternoon, Ian Browne of MLB.com suggested in an appearance on the ITM podcast that the Boston front office prefers Montgomery to Snell or Nola (Twitter link via Steve Perrault). Sox executives chatted with Montgomery’s representatives at the Boras Corporation during last week’s GM Meetings, although they’re presumably targeting multiple Boras clients to varying degrees. (Snell is also represented by the Boras Corp.)
Montgomery turned in a 3.20 ERA through 188 2/3 innings between the Cardinals and Rangers. It was third straight sub-4.00 showing over 30+ starts. Montgomery chipped in 31 frames of 2.90 ERA ball during Texas’ run to a World Series. During the regular season, the 30-year-old southpaw struck out a near-average 21.4% of opponents while keeping his walks to a tidy 6.2% clip.
He may not have the upside of Nola or Snell, each of whom misses more bats. Montgomery has better control than Snell and hasn’t had the spotty ERA or home run issues that have troubled Nola in two of the past three seasons, however. He also has the advantage of not requiring a signing team to surrender draft compensation. The midseason trade rendered Montgomery ineligible for the qualifying offer. Snell, Nola and Gray all received the QO. Yamamoto, of course, is not subject to the QO as a foreign professional.
Roster Resource projects the Sox for roughly $189MM in luxury tax commitments. That’s well below the $237MM base threshold, leaving plenty of potential spending room for Breslow and his staff. It’s also possible the Sox look to the trade market for rotation help. It’s difficult to envision the Rays trading Tyler Glasnow in division. Players like Corbin Burnes or Shane Bieber could be available as they enter their final seasons of arbitration eligibility.
Boston’s current rotation mix is a high-variance unit. Nick Pivetta, Chris Sale, Brayan Bello, Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock have all shown substantial upside.They also come with uncertainty to varying degrees. Houck and Whitlock might be better suited for relief. That could also be true of Pivetta, although he finished the 2023 season pitching very well over multiple innings. Sale has battled injuries and Bello seemed to wear down in the second half of his first full MLB season.
MLBTR Podcast: Top 50 Free Agents Megapod (with Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Anthony Franco)
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss this year’s list of the Top 50 Free Agents! Specific areas of discussion were…
- Our MLB Contract Tracker, which you can find more about in this video (1:30)
- The 18th birthday of MLBTR, the evolution of the Top 50 list over the years and the preparation of this year’s list (3:00)
- Shohei Ohtani and his unique free agent case (10:35)
- Cody Bellinger and the trend of longer deals for top free agents (16:00)
- The approach to team predictions in the Top 50 (27:00)
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto and his unique case (33:05)
- Blake Snell (38:15)
- Team fits for the top pitchers, such as the Red Sox and Giants (42:35)
- Comparing Aaron Nola to Jordan Montgomery (48:55)
- Which predictions do we have the least confidence in? Lucas Giolito, Teoscar Hernández, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Matt Chapman (52:10)
- Sonny Gray (1:04:00)
- Robert Stephenson (1:09:45)
- Jack Flaherty (1:12:15)
Check out our past episodes!
- Juan Soto Speculation, Melvin and Zaidi in SF, and Boston Hires Breslow – listen here
- Adolis García, the Tyler Glasnow Decision and Bob Melvin – listen here
- Boston Searches for a Boss, Kim Ng and Surgery for Brandon Woodruff – listen here
Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions: Pitchers
The World Series will be completed in less than a week, which means the offseason is imminent. Almost right away, some key decisions will have to be made. Within five days of the World Series ending, contract options will need to be either exercised or declined and clubs will also have to choose whether or not to issue qualifying offers to eligible players.
A player is eligible for a qualifying offer if they have never received a QO before and spent the entire season with the same club. The value of the QO changes annually, calculated by taking the average salary of the 125 highest-paid players in the league. That means it generally rises as salaries increase over time, with this year’s QO expected to land around $20.5MM. If a player receives and rejects a qualifying offer, he becomes a free agent. If he then signs elsewhere, the signing team is subject to draft pick forfeiture and possibly other penalties, while their previous club receives draft pick compensation.
MLBTR is taking a look at the candidates, with one post focusing on the position players and this one looking at the pitchers.
No-Doubters
- Sonny Gray (Twins)
- Josh Hader (Padres)
- Aaron Nola (Phillies)
- Shohei Ohtani (Angels)
- Blake Snell (Padres)
These five are slam dunks to receive and reject the qualifying offer. Ohtani won’t pitch in 2024 after undergoing elbow surgery, but he is still expected to hit and will perhaps return to the mound in 2025. As one of the best hitters in baseball and the potential for two-way contributions down the road, he’s in line for a record-setting contract. Nola is coming off a down season relative to his own standards but has an excellent track record that will put him in line for a nine-figure deal even with the QO attached. Gray’s total earning power will be capped somewhat by the fact that he turns 34 in a week but his excellent work in 2023 should be able to get him a new deal around $20MM per year over multiple seasons. Snell just wrapped up an excellent campaign, finishing with a 2.25 ERA that could see him net a second career Cy Young award. That sets him up for a huge payday even after rejecting the QO. Hader has been one of the best relievers in the game for a long time and could challenge Edwin Díaz for the biggest contract ever for a reliever.
Special Case
- Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers)
Kershaw has been eligible for a qualifying offer in each of the past two offseasons but didn’t receive one. That wasn’t a reflection of his performance but a sign of respect. In each case, Kershaw went into the winter not knowing if he wanted to come back to the Dodgers, jump to his hometown Rangers or retire. The Dodgers decided both times not to issue him the QO so that he wouldn’t have to make a rushed decision at the beginning of the offseason. Since Kershaw is once again undecided on his future, it seems fair to expect that the Dodgers will decline to extend the QO, though Kershaw would warrant one in a vacuum.
Possible Candidates
- Seth Lugo (Padres)
Lugo spent most of his career working out of the bullpen but hit free agency a year ago and drew plenty of interest as a starter. The Padres eventually brought him aboard via a two-year deal with a $15MM guarantee and incentives, as well as an opt-out after the first season.
The righty made the most of the opportunity, making 26 starts and logging 146 1/3 innings with a 3.57 earned run average. He stuck out 23.2% of batters faced, walked 6% and kept the ball on the ground at a 45.2% clip. There were some concerns about Lugo’s ability to hold up over a full season, both since he hadn’t had that kind of workload before and because he had a slight tear of his UCL in 2017 that wasn’t surgically addressed. But in 2023, Lugo made just one trip to the injured list, missing just over a month due to a calf strain.
Now that Lugo has proof of concept as a starter, he should have greater earning power than he did a year ago, even though he’s about to turn 34. Turning down the one year and $7.5MM left on his deal should be an easy call, but then the Padres will have a more difficult choice. It would be hard for Lugo to turn down a 2024 salary more than twice what he made in the prior season, so there would be a decent chance he accepts a QO. With the club reportedly looking to cut payroll, they may not want to take that chance.
- Kenta Maeda (Twins)
Maeda has had his ups and downs in recent years but is heading into free agency with some momentum. He posted a 2.70 ERA in 2020 but then that figure jumped to 4.66 in 2021 before he underwent internal brace surgery on his elbow. He missed all of 2022 and then struggled early in 2023. In his fourth start of the season, he was shelled by the Yankees, allowing 10 earned runs in three innings. He was then placed on the injured list with a triceps strain while sporting an ERA of 9.00 for the year.
But after getting healthy, his results were much better. He was activated from the IL in late June and made 17 more appearances the rest of the way. He tossed 88 1/3 innings with a 3.36 ERA, 29% strikeout rate and 7% walk rate. Though his ERA for the whole year finished at 4.23, it seems fair to conclude that the early-season injury inflated that number.
The righty has never had a massive salary locked in. When he initially came over from Japan, the Dodgers signed him to an incentive-laden deal that guaranteed him $25MM over eight years. That came in the form of a $1MM signing bonus, $3MM salary each year and $6.5MM in incentives available each season based on games started and innings pitched. If he suddenly had a $20.5MM guarantee in front of him for his age-36 season, that would likely be very tempting.
The Twins aren’t one of the top payroll teams under normal circumstances and may need to cut back spending due to uncertainty around their TV revenues. They may not want to blow a huge chunk of their budget right at the beginning of the offseason, especially when their rotation is already in decent shape with Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack and Louie Varland currently pencilled in.
- Michael Wacha (Padres)
Wacha had some strong seasons earlier in his career with the Cardinals, but injuries became an issue more recently. He settled for a $3MM guarantee while joining the Mets for 2020, then was limited to 34 mediocre innings in the shortened season. The Rays took a shot on him in 2021 with another $3MM guarantee and he stayed healthy enough to log 124 2/3 innings with a 5.05 ERA. That relatively healthy campaign was enough to get him a one-year, $7MM deal with the Red Sox for 2022, and he then tossed 127 1/3 innings for that club with a 3.23 ERA.
He lingered on the open market for a while last offseason but eventually landed a four-year, $26MM guarantee from the Padres with a layered option structure. After the 2023 World Series, the Friars will have to decide whether or not to trigger two $16MM club options for 2024 and 2025, effectively a two-year, $32MM deal. If they decline, Wacha has a $6.5MM player option for 2024 and then $6MM player options for 2025 and 2026.
The righty is coming off another decent season. Though his shoulder landed him on the IL this year, just as it had in 2022 and 2020, he was able to make 24 starts and throw 134 1/3 innings with a 3.22 ERA. His 22.4% strikeout rate and 7.8% walk rate were both close to league average, though he may have benefitted from a .266 batting average on balls in play and 79.7% strand rate. His 3.89 FIP and 4.43 SIERA suggest his ERA might not be wholly sustainable.
As mentioned in the Lugo section above, the Padres are facing a budget crunch. Though they are likely pleased with Wacha’s results in 2023, would they want to give him a pay raise by triggering that option? If they pass on that, Wacha would likely turn down his player option and return to free agency. He would be eligible for a qualifying offer at that point, which would be a higher salary than the club option but on a shorter commitment. The Padres effectively have to decide between 1/20 or 2/32 or simply letting Wacha walk.
Long Shot
- Frankie Montas (Yankees)
Some fans of the Yankees might shudder at the thought of the club bringing back Montas at a higher salary, but it’s not a completely crazy idea. Though he was hurt or ineffective from the moment he donned pinstripes, he’s not too far removed from some strong results. From 2019 to 2021, he posted an ERA of 3.51 over 336 innings pitched. In that time, he struck out 26.3% of batters faced, issued walks at a 7.3% clip and kept 43.7% of batted balls on the ground. Among pitchers with at least 300 innings pitched in that time, that ERA ranked him 21st in the majors. Even in 2022, prior to the infamous trade, he was still quite good. He registered an ERA of 3.18 in his 19 starts for the A’s that year.
Players returning from injury absences can often still find themselves big salaries on short-term deals. Noah Syndergaard got one year and $21MM from the Angels after missing most of 2020 and 2021 rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. Corey Kluber got $11MM from the Yankees even though he was 35 years old and made just eight appearances over the two previous campaigns. James Paxton got $10MM from the Red Sox under similar circumstances.
The Yankees have a couple of long-term contracts in their rotation with Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón. The latter hasn’t worked out well so far, with Rodón injured for much of 2023. The club needs rotation reinforcements with Michael King, Clarke Schmidt and Nestor Cortes pencilled into the back end, each of whom comes with some question marks. They could add another marquee free agent, but maybe they’d prefer to take a short-term flier on a player they have obviously liked for a long time, giving up four prospects to acquire him and Lou Trivino just over a year ago. They then agreed to a $7.5MM arbitration salary for 2023 even as questions about his shoulder lingered.
Though there’s an argument for the possibility, it ultimately seems like the odds are against this happening. The Montas trade has gone so poorly, both from an on-field perspective and a PR one, that it’s hard to envision the club doubling down. If Montas doesn’t receive the QO, he will likely be fielding one-year offers slightly below the $20.5MM salary range.
Ineligible
- Jack Flaherty (Orioles)
- Lucas Giolito (Guardians)
- Shota Imanaga (Yokohama DeNA BayStars, NPB)
- Jordan Montgomery (Rangers)
- Eduardo Rodriguez (Tigers)
- Marcus Stroman (Cubs)
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto (Orix Buffaloes, NPB)
As mentioned up top, players are only eligible to receive the qualifying offer if they haven’t received one previously and also spent the entire year with just one MLB club. Rodriguez and Stroman, who can each opt out of their respective contracts, have each been issued a QO earlier in their career. Flaherty, Giolito and Montgomery were all traded midseason, which makes them ineligible as well. Players coming from other leagues aren’t eligible either, so Yamamoto and Imanaga won’t have the QO in play. For each of these pitchers, the lack of a QO helps their earning power since clubs won’t have to forfeit any draft picks to sign them.
NL Notes: Brewers, Dodgers, Dombrowski
Back in May, Brewers principal owner Mark Attanasio discussed the club’s desire to secure state funding for renovations to American Family Field, the club’s stadium in Milwaukee which is publicly owned and leased to the Brewers. At the time Attanasio mentioned that public officials in the state had indicated that they hope to extend the club’s lease at the stadium, which currently runs through 2030, through at least 2050.
Those efforts passed a significant milestone yesterday, as Jessie Opoien and Tom Daykin of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel relayed yesterday that the Wisconsin state assembly voted 69-27 in support of a measure that would provide $546MM in funding for stadium renovations and improvements, to be paid both through the aforementioned 2050 date. $411MM of that total funding bill would fall to the state of Wisconsin, while the remaining $135MM would be covered by Milwaukee county and the city of Milwaukee. Opoien and Daykin add that the Brewers would provide an additional $100MM toward the financing plan.
As noted in the article, American Family Field is owned by the Southeast Wisconsin Professional Baseball Park District, an agency created by the state that leases the ballpark out to the Brewers. Per the terms of the lease, the state is required to provide the majority of the funding for what Opoien and Daykin describe as “long-term maintenance and renovations” of the park, with winterizing the ballpark noted as one possible renovation under consideration. The pair go on to note that the plan stipulates that the club will be required to designate one home game per month of the regular season as a discount day for residents of Wisconsin.
Passage through the state assembly is far from the final hurdle for the deal, though the bills passed have the support of the relevant executives in Wisconsin governor Tony Evers, Milwaukee mayor Cavalier Johnson, and county executive David Crowley. The next step in the process is for the package to secure passage through the state senate, which Opoien an Daykin note is likely to require changes to help raise money for the funding plan. Still, the deal’s progress is surely encouraging for Brewers fans after rumors of potential relocation following the expiration of the club’s current lease in 2030 began to percolate back in August.
More from around the NL…
- While discussing the organization’s recent end-of-season press conference, Jack Harris of the LA Times noted that the Dodgers explored trades for right-hander Pablo Lopez and left-hander Jordan Montgomery “over the last year,” though no deal came together with Harris noting that the costs of acquiring either pitcher would’ve been beyond what the Dodgers considered to be fair value. The fact that LA recently pursued a deal for Montgomery is hardly a surprise, given they had previously been reported to have interest in his services at the trade deadline. Lopez, however, is a more noteworthy mention as the last rumors connecting the right-hander, who was shipped from the Marlins to the Twins last offseason, were from the 2022 trade deadline. The Dodgers, of course, saw their starting rotation break down throughout the year due to injuries and under-performance, culminating in Clayton Kershaw, Bobby Miller and Lance Lynn combining to allow 13 runs over just 4 2/3 innings of work across their three starts during the NLDS as the club was swept out of the postseason at the hands of the Diamondbacks.
- Phillies principal owner John Middleton spoke to WEEI’s Rob Bradford recently regarding the club’s pursuit of current president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski, who the club hired following the shortened 2020 season. The hiring has been an unmitigated success to this point, with the Phillies currently ahead 2-0 in the NLCS against the Diamondbacks and well on their way to a possible second consecutive World Series appearance under Dombrowski’s guidance. At the time, however, Middleton notes that Dombrowski was reluctant to leave his position with the Nashville Stars group, which hopes to lure a potential expansion team to Nashville in the near future. Per Middleton, Dombrowski’s initial contract included a clause that allowed him to depart the Phillies in the event that Nashville was successful in luring an expansion team during his tenure in Philadelphia. Dombrowski extended with the club last offseason through the 2027 campaign, though it’s unclear if his new contract contains a similar clause.
Cardinals Have Discussed Coaching Job With Yadier Molina
The Cardinals and Yadier Molina have had discussions about him joining the major league coaching staff next year, reports Katie Woo of The Athletic. The report adds that there’s mutual interest from both parties.
Molina is obviously well known around baseball and particularly in St. Louis. He just wrapped up a playing career that went from 2004 to 2022, all of that in Cardinal red. Now 41, he has previously expressed a desire to move towards managing/coaching in his post-playing career, having already gotten some experience outside of Major League Baseball. Molina has done some managing in the Venezuelan Professional Baseball League as well as acting as skipper for Puerto Rican teams in international play, including the most recent World Baseball Classic.
His potential role with the Cardinals next year isn’t exactly clear, but Woo relays that it’s expected it would be an everyday position. It doesn’t currently appear as though any of the current coaches are in jeopardy, with Molina likely to be an addition rather than a replacement. Woo points out that the club had one of the smaller staffs in the league in 2023, with some players apparently expressing that there “simply wasn’t enough coaching to go around,” in Woo’s words.
Adding another coach, whether Molina or someone else, would obviously help if that’s a real problem for manager Oli Marmol and the rest of the staff. But Molina specifically could be a good fit, given his legendary status in the organization. There’s also the fact that the post-Molina era didn’t kick off with a bang. During Molina’s time as the club’s backstop, they made frequent postseason appearances and only finished below .500 once, back in 2007. But the first season after his retirement saw the club go 71-91 and fall to the basement of the National League Central.
There were whispers that some members of the St. Louis pitching staff weren’t happy with the transition to Willson Contreras, who was signed last offseason to take over Molina’s job behind the plate. Contreras was even moved off the catching position for a time this year, working as the designated hitter only, though he was back behind the plate a week later. If there’s any lingering discord between the pitchers and Contreras, perhaps Molina’s presence as a coach could help to bridge that gap.
Turning to the club’s roster, Woo discusses the club’s impending rotation work. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak has openly expressed a desire to bring in three starting pitchers this winter, in order to replace the retiring Adam Wainwright and impending free agents Jack Flaherty and Jordan Montgomery, both of whom were traded prior to the deadline. Free agency is obviously one avenue to pursuing upgrades, but the Cardinals haven’t traditionally been big spenders in that regard. Their largest free agent signing in franchise history is the $120MM deal they gave to Matt Holliday back in 2010, with Mike Leake‘s $80MM deal in 2015 the largest they’ve given to a pitcher.
It seems they are giving some thought to breaking one or both of those records. They have already been connected to Sonny Gray and Aaron Nola, each of whom would likely require a deal larger than Leake’s in order to sign. Woo adds that the club is open to a reunion with Montgomery, though he’s likely pushing his next contract well into nine-figure territory, based both on his regular season work and strong playoff performance with the Rangers thus far.
Woo also adds that the Cards will “check in” on Japanese hurler Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported last week that the club is indeed interested in Yamamoto, though the extent of that interest isn’t clear. Speculation around Yamamoto’s potential contract seems to suggest he could be in line for something around $200MM, based both on his youth and his excellent results in Nippon Professional Baseball. Having just turned 25 in August, he’s far younger than typical free agents, and he also has an ERA of 1.82 over his seven NPB seasons.
Giving out a mega deal for a starting pitcher would be new territory for the Cards, but it sounds like they are exploring every avenue in order to put this rough season behind them. That will likely involve trading from their position player mix as well, though who they are willing to part with remains to be seen.
Rangers Rotation Could Be A Strength In ALCS
Over the 2022-23 offseason, the Rangers concentrated their attention and resources on the rotation. They signed Jacob deGrom, the biggest name on the market, and Nathan Eovaldi, a World Series champion and postseason hero. They re-signed Martin Perez, an 11-year veteran and a 2022 All-Star. They took a chance on the injury-prone Andrew Heaney, who flashed dominant strikeout stuff over the second half of the season.
Suffice it to say, very little went according to plan. deGrom went down at the end of April. Eovaldi looked like a Cy Young contender through the All-Star break, but a forearm strain ruined the second half of his season. Perez, meanwhile, struggled so badly through the first four months that he wound up in the bullpen after the trade deadline. Heaney was a similar case; he lasted longer in the rotation but never quite found his groove, and he landed in the bullpen in September. Jon Gray, who signed with Texas a year prior, was reliable for much of the season but suffered a forearm strain of his own in late September.
That’s a whole lot of misfortune for a team that still finished fifth in the AL in rotation ERA and FanGraphs WAR, not to mention a team that made the playoffs and swept its way to the ALCS. While the pre-season plan didn’t exactly work out, the Rangers made the best of some tough breaks with depth and aggressive trades at the deadline. Now, as they prepare to take on the Astros, the rotation could be as strong as it’s been since April.
Eovaldi has put his rough September far behind him with two phenomenal postseason starts. Across 13 2/3 innings, he has given up just two runs while striking out 15 and walking none. The righty is harkening back to his performance with the 2018 Red Sox, but even then, he was never quite as effective as he’s been over his last two outings.
Meanwhile, trade deadline acquisition Jordan Montgomery has been superb, pitching to a 2.79 ERA in August and September and a 3.27 ERA in the playoffs. While he has had a few rough starts, including his performance against the Orioles on Sunday, he has looked dominant more often than not, such as in his gem against the Rays last Tuesday.
Those two will lead the way in the ALCS, and with several off days between their victory last night and Game 1 on Sunday, the Rangers can set up their rotation however they’d like. That means Montgomery in Game 1, Eovaldi in Game 2, and no need to piggyback Heaney and Dane Dunning to open the series. In fact, Texas might not need to piggyback Heaney and Dunning at all.
Max Scherzer, another deadline addition for Texas, is approaching a preternatural return from a teres major strain. He seemed like a long shot for the playoffs until relatively recently, but he has been ramping up his throwing program in October, and now it looks like he could make the ALCS roster. As Evan Grant reported for The Dallas Morning News, the three-time Cy Young winner threw a simulated game on Wednesday, and he feels good about his chances to pitch against the Astros.
Grant had a similarly positive update about Gray, who plans to ramp up his rehab this week. He is not as far along as Scherzer, but he also didn’t miss as much time. If he gets back on a mound in the coming days, he, too, could be ready for the ALCS.
Neither Scherzer nor Gray is likely to pitch deep into a game. It’s a good thing, then, that manager Bruce Bochy has several converted starters in his bullpen. Not all of them will make the roster if Scherzer and Gray both return, but even so, the Rangers have plenty of options to pitch the middle innings. A rotation of Montgomery, Eovaldi, Scherzer, and Gray (with Heaney, Dunning, and Perez providing depth) should give Texas a chance to win every time out.
The starting rotation was supposed to be a strength for the Rangers this year. At the best of times, it has been just that, but more often than not, it’s been a large, looming question mark instead. The questions will remain until Scherzer and Gray actually take the ball, but all the same, this rotation is in a better place than it has been for quite some time.
Rangers Move Martín Pérez To Bullpen
The Rangers brought in some new additions to their rotation at the deadline, acquiring both Max Scherzer from the Mets and Jordan Montgomery from the Cardinals. One of them will replace Nathan Eovaldi, who recently landed on the injured list. Another opening will be created by veteran Martín Pérez getting bumped to the bullpen, reports Shawn McFarland of The Dallas Morning News. “It doesn’t mean that’s where he’s going to stay,” manager Bruce Bochy said of the move for Pérez. “But for this time around, that’s the plan.”
Pérez, 32, has a long track of being a serviceable major league pitcher. By the end of the 2021 season, he had tossed 1102 2/3 innings, allowing 4.71 earned runs per nine innings. His 15.3% strikeout rate was well below average, but his 8.3% walk rate and 49.2% ground ball were both solid enough to allow him to be of use.
For 2022, he signed a one-year, $4MM deal with the Rangers and went on to have a career year. He made 32 starts and posted a 2.89 ERA over 196 1/3 innings, getting his strikeout rate up to a career high of 20.6% while still limiting walks and grounders. That earned him a well-deserved raise, as the Rangers issued him a $19.65MM qualifying offer, which he accepted.
Unfortunately, he hasn’t been able to build off that late-career breakout. His strikeout bump has vanished, as his 14.4% rate this year is low even by his standards. The walk rate is still solid at 8.6% but he’s only getting grounders at a 41% clip, a huge drop from last year’s 51.4% rate. His ERA on the year is 4.98, with only five qualified pitchers worse than him in that department this year. It’s also been trending in a bad direction, as he had a 2.41 ERA at the end of April but a 6.15 mark since the start of May.
With those results, it’s not shocking that he’s been nudged out of the starting mix. This is a road he has travelled down before, as the Red Sox bumped him to the bullpen in 2021, though he was able to get back on track with the aforementioned breakout in 2022. Perhaps he will do so again at some point but the Texas rotation will now seem to consist of Scherzer, Montgomery, Jon Gray, Andrew Heaney and Dane Dunning.
Dunning started the year in the bullpen but jumped into the rotation when Jacob deGrom landed on the injured list, later to require Tommy John surgery. In 16 starts since the start of May, Dunning has a 3.43 ERA. His 17.6% strikeout rate in that time isn’t especially impressive but he’s higher than Pérez in that department while also walking just 6.7% of hitters and keeping the ball on the ground at a 44.9% clip.
It seems those strong results will allow him to keep his starting gig, at least for the time being. As Bochy mentioned, the club could mix things up again in the months to come, though the group could get a bit more crowded. Bochy expects the club to have Eovaldi back after a minimum IL stint, per Kennedi Landry of MLB.com, which will make it harder both for Pérez to get back in the mix and for Dunning to keep his spot. Perhaps Eovaldi’s return would see Dunning hold his spot and Heaney get bumped to the bullpen since the latter has a lackluster 4.36 ERA on the season. But he has been trending better of late, with a 2.95 mark in his last four outings.
Of course, the final few months could also see some plot twists that change all of this, best laid plans and whatnot. The AL West is shaping up to be a fascinating race to watch in the final months, as the Rangers made their aforementioned rotation additions while the Astros got Justin Verlander and the Angels nabbed Lucas Giolito. The Rangers will undoubtedly be making whatever moves they feel give them the best shot at success in the weeks to come, with the large salary of Pérez not enough to keep him from the bullpen. He’ll return to the open market this winter while Dunning will qualify for arbitration for the first time.