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Latest On Blake Snell, Josh Hader

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The Padres are having a disappointing season, having stayed outside the postseason picture for much of the time. Nonetheless, there have been several signs to suggest they have no intention of selling before the upcoming deadline. Earlier this month, owner Peter Seidler said the club wasn’t “going to reverse course” and more recent reporting said that suitors for rental lefties Blake Snell and Josh Hader were being turned away. Today, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that several rival clubs think the Padres will pivot and sell both of those southpaws. That potentially indicates a new approach, though Dennis Lin of The Athletic reports that the club had interest in Lucas Giolito before he was traded to the Angels, indicating the Friars still view themselves as buyers.

Whether the Padres change their mind and decide to sell or not will be a fascinating element to watch between now and the August 1 deadline. Their 49-54 record has them 6.5 games out of a playoff spot, with them needing to leapfrog at least four teams to get into postseason position. FanGraphs gives them a 28.2% chance of doing so, though Baseball Prospectus is far more bullish at 56%.

The club’s decision makers have seemingly held firm in their belief in the squad, though the move to the seller lane is surely tempting. The expanded playoffs and some weak divisions have seemingly created a seller’s market, with those clubs that have pieces to move in a position to do well. The White Sox seemed to have secured themselves a strong return for Giolito and Reynaldo López, with Edgar Quero and Ky Bush being previously considered two of the Angels’ top prospects. The Cubs are still deciding on their trade deadline plan, as their recent hot streak could lead to Cody Bellinger and Marcus Stroman coming off the table, giving further leverage to those who are selling.

If the Padres were to make Snell and Hader available, they could surely bring in quite a haul for their farm system, which could help them reload for the 2024 campaign. Snell is a former Cy Young winner and he’s having an excellent season, with a 2.61 ERA through 21 starts. Hader has been one of the best relievers in the league for a while now and has a miniscule 0.95 ERA this year. Both are impending free agents, making them logical trade chips on a selling team.

Though considering selling is likely a tough pill to swallow for the Padres, given how much they’ve already committed to this year’s club. They have run up the highest payroll in franchise history, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Their $277MM luxury tax calculation from Roster Resource puts them over the $273MM third line of penalization, lining them up to see their top 2024 draft pick pushed back by 10 spots.

They have already put a lot on the line and maybe they don’t want to sink their chances further by trading pieces like Hader and Snell. They could hold on and hope for a late surge, with still a chance to recoup a draft pick when each is given and inevitably declines a qualifying offer. But even that consolation prize will be lessened by their spending, since luxury tax payors have their compensation picks moved from just before the third round to just after the fourth.

If the Padres were to make either Snell or Hader or both available, they would undoubtedly have massive interest around the league. Just about every contender can use some more pitching and those two are both elite. Doing so could have the added bonus of allowing the Padres to dip below the third CBT tier and prevent next year’s top draft pick from moving. However, they may not have much appetite for that, despite their precarious position. Perhaps some more poor results in the coming days will change the calculus, though that remains to be seen. The Padres are off today but host the Rangers for three starting tomorrow before heading to Colorado on Monday. The trade deadline is Tuesday, August 1.

Padres Have Turned Away Interest In Blake Snell, Josh Hader

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The Padres’ season has been an abject disappointment, but despite a 10-game deficit in the NL West and a six-game gap in the NL Wild Card chase, they apparently remain intent on keeping the roster together. ESPN’s Jeff Passan writes that the Friars have received and thus far rebuffed interest in lefties Blake Snell and Josh Hader.

Both southpaws are free agents at season’s end. Snell is wrapping up the final season of a five-year, $50MM contract extension originally signed with the Rays. He’s earning $16MM this season. Hader is in his final season of arbitration eligibility and being paid $14.1MM.

After a rocky start to the season, the 30-year-old Snell has rediscovered the form that helped him win the American League Cy Young Award in 2018. Dating back to mid-May, Snell has pitched to a preposterous 0.78 ERA and 35.9% strikeout rate in 69 innings. He’s walked an ugly 13.4% of his opponents during that time, although that number is at least partially skewed by one anomalous start in which he issued seven free passes. Overall, Snell carries a 2.61 ERA. He’s running a strikeout rate north of 30% for the sixth consecutive season.

Hader, similarly, has rebounded this season. Much was made of the lefty’s struggles prior to last July’s trade to San Diego and subsequent rough patch early in his Padres tenure. However, he closed out the year with a dominant stretch and was excellent throughout the postseason as well. He’s backed that up with 38 innings of 0.95 ERA ball, 24 saves and a massive 38.4% strikeout rate in 2023. Like Snell, he’s too prone to free passes (13.2% walk rate), but Hader’s penchant for missing bats has helped to mitigate any potential damage.

Both pitchers would be clear candidates to receive qualifying offers at season’s end, and both would surely reject in search of a lucrative multi-year deal in free agency (barring a notable second-half injury or collapse). As such, the Padres can feel confident that they’ll at least come away with a pair of compensatory picks in next year’s draft. However, since they’re luxury-tax payors, those picks would land after the fourth round rather than the standard slotting between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3 of the draft.

The luxury tax comes into play in another regard for the Padres, too. San Diego is currently about $4MM north of the third line of luxury penalization ($273MM), per Roster Resource. That’s the point at which a team’s top pick is pushed back by 10 selections in the following summer’s draft. Trading Snell and the remainder of his $10MM luxury hit ($3.655MM, as of this writing) wouldn’t drop the Padres under that threshold. Hader ($5.154MM still owed to him) would do so. To be clear, there’s no indication the Padres are endeavoring to drop below that line at this time.

For much of the offseason, the Padres appeared reluctant to cross that third luxury barrier. Many of the team’s late-offseason dealings were structured in convoluted ways designed to tamp down their luxury-tax implications, including their extension of Yu Darvish and signing of Michael Wacha. They’ve nevertheless wound up north of that line and are currently on pace to have next summer’s top pick dropped by 10 spots.

If owner Peter Seidler’s comments earlier this month are any indication, the loss of draft capital isn’t likely to be a deterrent. On July 2, when the Padres were eight games under .500, 11.5 games back in the division and 8.5 games out of the Wild Card chase, Seidler pledged that his team would not “reverse course.” San Diego has played better since that time, going 11-7 and trimming that Wild Card deficit by two and a half games.

There’s an argument to be made that the Padres could explore deals for Snell and/or Hader, prioritizing near-MLB help and simultaneously looking to back-fill the roster with lower-cost rentals. I explored as much in a piece for MLBTR Front Office subscribers a couple weeks back. Doing so could net talent that would help in 2024 and beyond while simultaneously improving their 2024 draft outlook and at least loosely keeping their 2023 postseason aspirations afloat. That’d be a fine line to walk, however, and the Padres’ postseason chances are obviously greater if they simply hold onto Snell and Hader.

At least for now, that appears to be the front office’s plan. Passan suggests the Padres could look to add to their bullpen and perhaps turn to the farm system if those efforts come up empty.

The remaining handful of games between now and next Tuesday’s trade deadline remain worth monitoring. The Friars have their series finale against a free-falling Pirates club right now and will play the last-place Rockies next Monday, the final day before the deadline. That pair of favorable matchups bookends a pivotal three-game set against the AL West-leading Rangers.

If the Padres can pull themselves up to .500 or at least pick up another game or two in the Wild Card hunt, it stands to reason they’ll continue their all-in approach to the current season. On the other hand, a series of losses could conceivably make the front office give more consideration to a soft sell of rental pieces. As with so many clubs around the league, the next few games will be critical in shaping the Padres’ approach to the deadline.

MLB Announces 2023 All-Star Rosters

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The starters for the 2023 All-Star Game were already announced earlier this week, and today the league revealed the reserve selections and the pitching staffs for the National League and American League teams.  Fan balloting determined the game’s starters, while the reserves and pitchers were picked by a combination of the player ballot and selections from the league office.

This won’t be the final list of players involved, as some more substitutions will be announced later for players who are injured or who have opted not to participate.  Every team must have at least one player represented at the Midsummer Classic, and the starting pitchers for the game will be announced on July 10.

Of note, Shohei Ohtani will be in the game as both a DH and as a pitcher for the third consecutive season.  The Braves led all teams with eight All-Stars, while the Rangers weren’t far behind with six players chosen.  This year’s All-Star Game takes place in Seattle on July 11.

National League

American League

2023-24 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings: June Edition

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We’re at the regular season’s halfway point, and the free-agent landscape has changed a fair bit since we last ran through our Power Rankings back in mid-April. Injuries, changes in performance — some for the better, some for the worse — and more have combined to provide more context as to what shape the top of the free agent market will take.

As a reminder, our Power Rankings are based primarily on perceived earning power. This is an exercise intended to provide a snapshot of where the top end of the free agent class is currently sitting. One player being ranked higher than another does not necessarily indicate we feel he’s the better player. Youth, health, qualifying offer status, market scarcity and myriad other factors all impact what a player can expect to earn in free agency.

Our power rankings are compiled collaboratively. MLBTR owner Tim Dierkes and writers Anthony Franco and Darragh McDonald all weighed in for this update. Players with opt-out clauses and player options are included, even if they’ve previously given indications they may forgo the opportunity to return to the market.

1. Shohei Ohtani, SP/DH, Angels: There are no surprises up top. Ohtani remains far and away the top name on this year’s list — so much so that he might even command double the No. 2 entrant on our list. That’s both a testament to his general excellence and an indictment on what is generally a weaker free agent class than is typical.

Ohtani, 29 in July, isn’t having quite as dominant a season on the mound as he did in 2022, but he’s still been quite good and is enjoying his best year to date with the bat. In 95 1/3 innings, the flamethrowing righty has pitched to a 3.02 ERA with a 33.2% strikeout rate and 10.2% walk rate. The latter is a marked uptick from the 6.7% he logged a year ago. Ohtani’s strikeout rate is only down about half a percentage point from its 2022 levels, but he’s seen more notable drops in swinging-strike rate (from 14.9% to 13.5%) and opponents’ chase rate (32.6% to 29.5%). This is also the most homer-prone he’s ever been on the mound; his 1.13 HR/9 is a career-high, and the 12 homers he’s allowed in 95 1/3 innings innings are already just two shy of last year’s total of 14 — which came over a span of 166 frames.

To some extent, that’s just nitpicking. Ohtani has still been excellent. His ERA ranks 15th among qualified starting pitchers, and only Atlanta’s Spencer Strider has a higher strikeout rate. He currently ranks sixth among qualified pitchers in K-BB% (23%), and fielding-independent metrics are generally supportive of his success (e.g. 3.40 SIERA, 3.35 xERA). Hitters simply haven’t been able to make good contact against Ohtani, outside that handful of home runs anyway. His 86 mph average opponents’ exit velocity is in the 93rd percentile of MLB pitchers. His 34.8% opponents’ hard-hit rate is in the 77th percentile. He’s induced grounders at a solid 44.4% clip. The uptick in walks is significant, but that’s only taken Ohtani from an ace-level performer to a slight step below that level.

And of course, when discussing Ohtani, the mound work is only half the equation. His work in the batter’s box this season has been nothing short of sensational. In 360 plate appearances, Ohtani is batting .309/.389/659. That’s 82% better than league-average production after weighting for home park, by measure of wRC+. Ohtani has already belted 28 home runs, and he’s added 15 doubles and five triples while swiping 11 bags (in 15 tries). This year’s 11.4% walk rate is right an exact match for his career mark (although shy of his 15.6% peak), and his 21.7% strikeout rate is the lowest of his career.

Ohtani has averaged an obscene 93.7 mph off the bat this year and ranks in the 95th percentile (or better) of MLB hitters in exit velocity, barrel rate, expected slugging percentage and expected wOBA. He’s a bona fide middle-of-the-order bat with the speed to swipe 25 to 30 bases and the power to clear 40 home runs.

When chatting about this update to our Power Rankings, Anthony Franco rhetorically asked me if I thought Ohtani the hitter and Ohtani the pitcher (if somehow separated) would both still individually rank ahead of the rest of this year’s class of free agents. We both agreed that they would. Fortunately, one team will get both this offseason — it just might cost more than half a billion dollars.

2. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, SP, Orix Buffaloes (Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball): Many people have wondered what type of contract Ohtani might have originally commanded if he’d waited two years to jump to Major League Baseball. Because he opted to make the jump at 23 years of age, he was considered an “amateur” under MLB rules and thus limited to the confines of MLB’s international free agent system. Since he’s not also a world class hitter, Yamamoto won’t give us an exact answer to that now-unanswerable Ohtani hypothetical, but he’ll show us what a 25-year-old ace can command under true open-market pricing if and when the Buffaloes post him, as expected.

Yamamoto, 25 in August, is one of the best pitchers in NPB and perhaps one of the most talented arms on the planet. The right-hander made his NPB debut as an 18-year-old rookie in 2017, stepped into the Buffaloes’ rotation full-time in 2019, and has pitched to a sub-2.00 ERA in four of the past five seasons, including this year’s current mark of 1.98. The lone exception was 2020, when his ERA ballooned all the way to… ahem, 2.20. Yamamoto has a sub-2.00 ERA in his career, and that’s including the 5.32 mark he posted in that age-18 rookie season.

So far in 2023, Yamamoto has pitched 68 1/3 innings with a 1.98 ERA, a 27.8% strikeout rate and a superlative 4.1% walk rate. Just 11 of the 266 batters he’s faced have drawn a free pass. That’s a career-best mark for a pitcher who’s long had outstanding command but has continually whittled away at his walk rate over the years. In his NPB career, Yamamoto has walked just 6.1% of opponents against a 26.5% strikeout rate.

MLBTR contributor Dai Takegami Podziewski kicked off his latest NPB Players To Watch piece with a look at Yamamoto’s recent run of dominance: a stretch of three consecutive eight-inning starts with just one run allowed and a 29.8% strikeout rate and .092 opponents’ average along the way. World Baseball Classic fans may remember Yamamoto’s performance as well: in 7 1/3 innings he allowed just two runs on four hits and two walks with 12 strikeouts. Back in April, Dai described Yamamoto as the “undisputed ace of NPB,” noting that he’s won the Sawamura Award (NPB’s Cy Young equivalent) in each of the past two seasons. He also won the pitching triple crown (ERA, strikeouts, wins) in 2021-22 and has a chance to repeat the feat in 2023.

Like so many pitchers these days, Yamamoto boasts a mid- to upper-90s heater. Scouts credit him with a potentially plus-plus splitter and give favorable reviews of his curveball and general athleticism as well. Presumably, there’s some trepidation regarding a pitcher who’s listed at just 5’10” and 169 pounds, and whoever signs him will have to pay a posting/release fee to the Buffaloes. Those are about the only “red flags” in Yamamoto’s profile.

Yamamoto’s countryman, Kodai Senga, has had some inconsistent command but generally performed well since signing a five-year, $75MM deal with the Mets. In an offseason piece, Joel Sherman of the New York Post quoted an evaluator who graded Yamamoto a full grade better than Senga on the 20-80 scale. And, it bears emphasizing, Yamamoto is five years younger than Senga. We haven’t seen a pitcher with this type of pedigree make the jump from Japan without any spending restrictions since Masahiro Tanaka signed a seven-year, $155MM deal with the Yankees. Yamamoto is younger than Tanaka was, he’s arguably better, and the price of pitching has only gone up since that time. A contract in excess of $200MM doesn’t seem outlandish if he can remain healthy and productive.

3. Matt Chapman, 3B, Blue Jays: It’s been a tale of two seasons for Chapman, who was perhaps baseball’s best hitter in April and one of its worst in May. The slump has been longer than the hot streak at this point, although the aggregate .265/.343/.457 slash is still well above league average (23% better, by measure of wRC+). Paired with his characteristically excellent defense (7 Defensive Runs Saved and 4 Outs Above Average already), and Chapman’s still been an undeniably valuable player, even if the nature of his contributions for the Jays have been quite frontloaded in the schedule’s early portion.

That said, it’s still incumbent upon Chapman to turn things around at the plate sooner than later. The weight of that early, Herculean stretch will continually diminish, and the current version of the former All-Star simply isn’t that compelling. Early in the year, Chapman was regularly making blistering contact and had dramatically cut back on his strikeouts. In writing about his brilliant start to the season in early May, I pointed out that he’d begun to let the strikeouts creep back in and wondered whether that was a mere blip or the onset of some regression.

Unfortunately, the strikeout issues that have dogged Chapman in the aftermath of his 2020 hip surgery have resurfaced. Dating back to May 1, Chapman is hitting just .203/.279/.339 with an a 30.2% strikeout rate. He’s still walking at a respectable 8.8% rate, and his quality of contact is excellent. Chapman is averaging 92.4 mph off the bat and hitting the ball at 95 mph or better in 52.7% of his plate appearances even during this prolonged slump. After benefiting from a .449 BABIP early in the year, he’s seen that mark swing down to .269 in May and June.

In all likelihood, the “true” results are somewhere between the two extremes of Chapman’s 2023 season. He’s not the hitter he was in April, but he’s certainly better than he’s been in May and June. The question is whether Chapman can curb the strikeouts moving forward. His propensity for thunderous contact (when he makes it) should lead to some positive regression and once again begin to produce better results. But if he fans at a 30% clip from here on out, there may not be enough balls in play to help him prop his stat line back up. Furthermore, it’d mark the third time in four seasons he finished at or above a 30% strikeout rate, which doesn’t inspire much confidence over the course of a long-term deal.

Chapman still ranks prominently here because the overall numbers are still good, and because, frankly, the crop of position players this offseason is dreadful. In fact, he’s the only pure position player on this installment of our Power Rankings, which is unprecedented. If Chapman can sustain his quality of contact and scale back the strikeouts slightly, he could still find a seven- or eight-year deal heading into his age-31 season. His overall production right now is comparable to the output posted by Kris Bryant in advance of his foray into free agency (which resulted in a seven-year, $182MM contract), and Chapman has far more defensive value than Bryant.

4. Lucas Giolito, SP, White Sox: It’s been a tough start to the year for a number of top free agent pitchers, but Giolito has generally pitched well. His strikeout rate is down from its 33.7% peak, but he’s still fanning more than a quarter of his opponents with his typical brand of better-than-average command (7.5% walk rate). It’s too soon to tell is this is a trend, but it bears mentioning that Giolito has upped his slider usage recently and seen a notable increase in strikeouts. Over his past five starts, he’s thrown the slider at a 35.8% clip, as compared to his prior 28.4% usage rate. It’s not a massive increase, but Giolito had just three starts with a slider rate of 30% or more in his first 11 trips to the hill; since May 30, he’s been between 31.4% and 41.2% in each start. It does seem to mark a clear change in attack plan, and after fanning 23.9% of hitters through those 11 starts, he’s up to 29.4% over his past five.

Giolito’s 93.3 mph average fastball is actually up slightly from 2022’s average of 92.7 mph. Home runs remain an issue (1.36 HR/9), and he’s been a bit more homer-prone on the road than in his hitter-friendly home park this year. That’s not the norm, however; the right-hander has allowed more than 1.5 homers per nine innings in his career at home but is at a much more palatable 1.16 mark on the road.

Giolito’s current 3.41 ERA would mark the fourth time in five seasons that he finished with an ERA between 3.41 and 3.53. Last year’s 4.90 looks like a clear outlier that was largely fueled by a career-high .340 average on balls in play. (The White Sox, notably, were among the game’s worst defensive teams in 2022.)

As with all free agents, age is crucial. In Giolito’s case, it’ll work in his favor. He’s 28 years old as of this writing and will turn 29 in mid-July. Even a seven-year contract would “only” carry through his age-35 season. It’s also worth noting that he’s been a frequently speculated trade candidate, and if he’s flipped to another club, he’d be ineligible to receive a qualifying offer. That carries significance in free agency, too.

Giolito might not be an ace, but he’s a surefire playoff starter for any team in Major League Baseball. He’s the second-youngest of the starters on this list with big league experience and has been a workhorse since 2018, ranking 10th among all MLB pitchers with 855 innings pitched in that time. Kevin Gausman (five years, $110MM) and Robbie Ray (five years, $115MM) signed similar contracts that began in their age-30 seasons. Neither had a track record as long as Giolito, who’ll be a year younger in his first free agent season. A six- or even seven-year deal could be in play, depending on how he finishes.

5. Julio Urias, SP, Dodgers: Urias is among the hardest players to peg among this year’s group. On the one hand, he posted a combined 2.63 ERA over 495 1/3 innings from 2019-22 and is slated to hit the open market in advance of age-27 season — a borderline unprecedentedly young age for a top-end starter to become a free agent. On the other, the lefty has been on the injured list for more than a month owing to a hamstring strain. He didn’t pitch all that well before landing on 15-day IL either. In 55 1/3 innings, Urias worked to a pedestrian 4.39 ERA, thanks primarily to a stunning uptick in home runs allowed; after yielding 0.98 homers per nine frames from ’19-’22, he’s allowed an average of 2.28 homers per nine innings in 2023.

That said, the rest of Urias’ numbers look quite similar to his peak output. His 23.3% strikeout rate is down a bit from the 24.7% he posted in 2019-22, but his 4.8% walk rate is notably better than his already strong 6.3% mark. His fastball velocity is right in line with last year’s level (when Urias notched a 2.16 ERA in 175 innings), as is his 10.8% swinging-strike rate. His 34.1% opponents’ chase rate remains strong.

The primary problem isn’t even an uptick in fly-balls, but rather in the percentage of those fly-balls that leave the yard. Entering the 2022 season, just 9.1% of the fly-balls allowed by Urias had become home runs. This year, it’s a staggering 20.3%. Broadly speaking, homer-to-flyball rate is susceptible to short-term spikes and tends to even out over a larger sample, but the uptick in homers hasn’t been well-timed. That’s doubly true given that for all of Urias’ success, he’s neither the flamethrowing powerhouse nor elite misser of bats that modern front offices covet. He’s succeeded thanks to elite command and by regularly limiting hard contact. Urias’ strikeout rates are typically a bit above average, but he’s never placed higher than the 67th percentile of MLB pitchers in overall strikeout rate.

That’s not to say Urias isn’t a desirable arm or won’t be a highly coveted pitcher. Prior to his injury, the MLBTR team had discussed possible contracts in excess of $200MM for the lefty, based both on his age and recent excellence. That’s perhaps a bit harder to see now, even if the current issue is a leg injury rather than an arm problem. Urias has only twice made 30 starts in a season, and he also has one major shoulder surgery already on his record (a 2017 procedure to repair a capsule tear).

A third consecutive 30-start season would’ve helped set aside a perceived lack of durability, but he won’t get there in 2023, even though he’s expected to return from the injured list as soon as this weekend. That’s not because of any arm troubles to date, and it should be noted that part of the reason for his lack of innings was some extreme workload management post-surgery that looks to have been effective, based on Urias’ 2021-22 results. Still, he hasn’t often worked a full starter’s slate of games, he won’t do it in 2023, and he hasn’t generated his typical results when healthy — even if most of the skill-oriented numbers remain similar to prior levels.

Urias will also have a qualifying offer to contend with, which isn’t true of every pitcher on these rankings. He’s undeniably talented and the clear youngest of the bunch, but it’d be easier to predict a massive long-term deal if he returns and starts producing more like he did in that aforementioned four-year peak.

6. Aaron Nola, SP, Phillies: Speaking of top-tier starters who haven’t performed up to expectations, the 30-year-old Nola finds himself in a precarious position. MLB’s consummate workhorse since his 2015 debut, Nola has pitched the third-most innings of the 2024 pitchers who’ve taken a big league mound since 2016 — his first full season in the Majors. Only Gerrit Cole and Max Scherzer have topped Nola’s 1256 1/3 innings in that stretch.

For the majority of that time, Nola has operated on the periphery of ace-dom. He’s only a one-time All-Star and has never won a Cy Young, but the former No. 7 overall pick finished third place in 2017, seventh place in 2020 and fourth place just last year. During his 2017-22 peak, Nola notched a 3.48 ERA, 28.2% strikeout rate, 6.6% walk rate and 47.1% ground-ball rate. His 2022 season featured a terrific 29.1% strikeout rate and an elite 3.6% walk rate over the life of 205 innings — the second-most in all of baseball.

That version of Nola has been nowhere to be found in 2023. Through 105 2/3 innings, he’s posted a pedestrian 4.51 ERA with his lowest strikeout rate (23.9%) since his rookie season back in 2015. Nola’s 6.8% walk rate, while still a very strong mark, is his highest since 2020. He’s allowing more fly-balls than ever before, and unsurprisingly is allowing home runs at a career-worst rate (1.45 HR/9).

Fielding-independent metrics still believe Nola’s above-average strikeout rate, strong walk rate and ability to avoid hard contact ought to be translating to better results; his “expected” ERA is 3.53, per Statcast, while tools like FIP (4.28) and SIERA (4.00) agree he’s been short-changed a bit. Nola’s 65.1% strand rate, in particular, sits about eight percentage points below his career level and below the league average.

Heading into the season, a six- or seven-year deal seemed within reach for one of the game’s most durable and consistently above-average starting pitchers. He’s maintained the “durable” half of that equation, making 17 starts and averaging a hearty 6.22 innings per outing. The results haven’t been there, however, and Nola’s velocity is down about a half mile per hour on most of his pitches. It’s not the platform season he wanted, and even with the so-so results, he’ll surely still have a QO attached to him. There’s still an easy case for a long-term deal here, and a strong second half of the season would quiet a lot of these concerns. To this point, however, Nola has looked more like a mid-rotation starter than someone who’d be fronting a playoff staff.

7. Blake Snell, SP, Padres: Snell has been the best pitcher on the planet for the past month or so, generally erasing a terrible start to the season. This sort of Jekyll & Hyde performance is old hat for the former AL Cy Young winner, who closed out both the 2022 and 2021 seasons in dominant fashion, offsetting a wave of pedestrian starts in each instance. That endorsement of Snell’s past month isn’t even hyperbole; dating back to May 25, Snell has a comical 0.86 ERA with a 66-to-15 K/BB ratio in 42 innings. He’s fanned a massive 44.1% of his opponents against a better-than-average 8.1% walk rate.

Snell’s rollercoaster traits are nothing new, and they may scare some interested suitors in free agency. There’s no skirting the fact that he has a penchant for slow starts to the season, and when Snell is off his game, he can look lost. He doesn’t have pristine command in the first place, and walks become a particularly glaring issue when he’s in a rut. When he’s not as his best, Snell has a tendency to labor through short starts, which can tax a bullpen.

That said, here’s a look at Snell’s past 48 starts: 259 1/3 innings, 3.05 ERA, 33% strikeout rate, 10.1% walk rate, 0.90 HR/9, 36.9% ground-ball rate, .196 opponents’ average. The road he takes to get there may be infuriating at times, both for fans and his organization’s decision-makers, but Snell has clear top-of-the-rotation stuff. He’s currently riding a streak of four straight starts with double-digit strikeouts, during which he’s yielded just three runs.

The Padres can and very likely will make Snell a qualifying offer. He should reject while giving little, if any thought to the contrary. The qualifying offer and general inconsistency might hurt him, but there will also be teams who look at those factors as a possible avenue to signing a starter with genuine No. 1 talent at a cost that isn’t commensurate with those types of arms. Snell will pitch all of the 2024 season at age 31, and paired with his inconsistency, that might cap him at five years. But he should command $20MM per year over that five-year term, making a nine-figure deal within reach …. barring a second-half collapse that heightens concerns about the fluctuations in his performance.

8. Josh Hader, RP, Padres: Rumors of Hader’s demise as an elite closer last summer were greatly exaggerated, it seems. The four-time All-Star was struggling in the weeks leading up to his trade from Milwaukee to San Diego, and he didn’t help his cause when he allowed a dozen August runs following the swap. That slump was capped off by a six-run drubbing at the hands of a lowly Royals offense.

Since then, it’s been business as usual for Hader. The lefty quietly finished out the year with a 0.79 ERA in his final 11 1/3 innings. He was unscored upon from Sept. 7 through season’s end, and he went on to pitch another 5 1/3 shutout innings in the postseason, fanning 10 hitters in the process. Hader is now sitting on a sparkling 1.26 ERA. His 37.8% strikeout rate isn’t quite as high as his ridiculous 47.8% peak in 2019, but he still ranks among the league leaders in strikeout rate.

Since putting that six-run August meltdown against the Royals behind him, here’s Hader’s line (postseason included): 45 1/3 innings, 0.99 ERA, 38% strikeout rate, 9.8% walk rate, 29 saves.

Hader will be a year older in free agency than Edwin Diaz was when he set the relief pitcher record on a five-year, $102MM contract (which includes multiple opt-outs). That slight age gap will matter, but Hader has the longer and steadier track record of the two and could benefit from his handedness. So long as he keeps somewhere near this pace, he’ll take aim at making Diaz’s record short-lived.

9. Marcus Stroman, SP, Cubs: Stroman’s three-year, $71MM contract allows him to opt out of the final year this offseason. In doing so, he’d leave $21MM on the table, but there’s little doubt he’d be able to topple that mark in free agency. Stroman has already received a qualifying offer in his career, meaning he can’t receive a second one. He’s also the current MLB leader in bWAR (3.5) and third in the Majors in RA9-WAR (also 3.5). Through 102 innings, Stroman touts a 2.47 ERA and a 59.3% grounder rate that’s second only to Logan Webb among all qualified pitchers.

Good as Stroman’s results are, there’s some reason to be a bit skeptical on his earning power. He can surely outpace the $21MM he’d leave on the table by opting out, likely securing another multi-year deal in free agency. That said, Stroman’s profile hasn’t really changed since his last foray into the open market. He still has a below-average strikeout rate, and the lower-than-average walk rate he had last time around has crept up to about league average in 2023. He’s inducing more grounders than he has since 2018, but the primary reason for the drop in his ERA has been a career-low home run rate. Just 8.3% of the fly-balls allowed by Stroman have been homers — well shy of his 13.5% career mark.

Homer-to-flyball rate tends to stabilize over larger samples — Stroman was between 12.6% and 13.9% every year from 2018-22, for instance — so teams might essentially view him as the same pitcher he was in the 2021-22 offseason, just a couple years older. One factor working in Stroman’s favor is that the price of pitching has increased since then; Jameson Taillon, Taijuan Walker and Chris Bassitt all helped advance that market last offseason. Bassitt’s three-year, $63MM deal with the Blue Jays should be of particular note. He secured that contract despite being hit with a QO that Stroman won’t have to contend with, and did so heading into his age-34 season. Next year will be Stroman’s age-33 season. He should at least be able to secure a three-year deal at a larger AAV than Bassitt received. A four-year deal with an AAV north of $20MM is also possible.

10. Jordan Montgomery, SP, Cardinals: Montgomery had a pair of rough starts in the season’s first six weeks, allowing seven and six runs in that pair of outings and ballooning his ERA in the process. Things have largely evened out though, and Montgomery’s numbers look just as solid as they did when he was establishing himself as a mid-rotation hurler in the Bronx, Through 92 innings, he’s posted a 3.52 ERA with a 21.9% strikeout rate, 5.9% walk rate and 46.6% grounder rate that all line up neatly with his 2021-22 production.

Montgomery pitched just 31 1/3 big league innings in 2018-19 due to Tommy John surgery and struggled in the shortened 2020 campaign upon his return from that operation. Since Opening Day 2021, however, he carries a 3.66 ERA and matching secondary marks (3.61 FIP, 3.88 SIERA) in 421 innings. If the Cardinals don’t trade Montgomery, he’ll be a natural qualifying offer candidate. He’d very likely reject that one-year offer in search of a multi-year deal in free agency. Montgomery isn’t an ace, but the market rewarded both Taillon (four years, $68MM) and Walker (four years, $72MM) with four-year contracts last winter. Neither had a QO attached to him, but Montgomery, who’ll turn 31 in December, has a better recent track record than both pitchers as well.

Of course, if the Cardinals remain out of the postseason hunt in late July, Montgomery will be a sought-after trade candidate. A trade to another club would render him ineligible to receive a QO. Even if the Cardinals hang onto him and make him a QO, he’ll still reach free agency in search of a comparable or even larger deal than the ones signed by Taillon, Walker and Bassitt. As with Stroman, it’s worth noting that Bassitt was older in free agency than Montgomery will be (by a margin of three years in Montgomery’s case).

Honorable Mentions (listed alphabetically): Harrison Bader, Cody Bellinger, Jeimer Candelario, Sonny Gray, Teoscar Hernandez, Shota Imanaga, Joc Pederson, Eduardo Rodriguez (opt-out), Max Scherzer (player option), Jorge Soler (player option)

2023-24 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings

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Welcome to the year’s first edition of the 2023-24 MLB free agent power rankings!  With this series we will attempt to rank players who are on track for free agency after the 2023 season, by measure of their estimated earning power.

MLBTR will take periodic looks at the top of the class from now through the remainder of the season.  Season performance will start to influence these rankings, but 11 or 12 games into the season, it’s not much of a factor in the April edition.  By the end of the season, 2023 results will matter quite a bit.  A strong platform year can elevate any player’s status in free agency, just as a poor walk year can tank their stock.

For the full list of 2023-24 MLB free agents, click here.

Our power rankings are compiled collaboratively by myself and MLBTR writers Anthony Franco, Steve Adams, and Darragh McDonald.  Players with opt-out clauses and player options are included, even if they’ve previously given indications they may forgo the opportunity to return to the market.

The 2023-24 MLB free agent class is an odd one.  It’s headed up by Shohei Ohtani, the Angels’ incredible two-way superstar, but seems to fall short of last winter’s class that was led by Aaron Judge and four star shortstops.

As can often happen, the 2023-24 class has had some of its thunder stolen by extensions.  Notably, Manny Machado and Rafael Devers inked extensions in excess of $300MM.  Yu Darvish and Miles Mikolas came off the market this year as well.  Other players who would have been free agents after ’23 had they not signed extensions include Matt Olson, Tyler Glasnow, Luis Castillo, Ozzie Albies, Yoan Moncada, Ryan McMahon, and Kyle Freeland.  And just a few hours prior to the publishing of this list, the Cubs agreed to an odd three-year deal to retain Ian Happ, who had been ranked eighth.  Additional players from the list below may also come off the board with extensions before free agency opens in November.

Let’s get to it!

1.  Shohei Ohtani, SP/DH, Angels:  Ohtani signed with the Angels in December 2017, generating significant hype given his ability to serve as both a starting pitcher and regular designated hitter.  He’d done so for five years as a member of NPB’s Nippon Ham Fighters.  No one knew how this experiment would go, as even Babe Ruth quickly phased out pitching after he started setting home run records in 1919.

Scouts were skeptical, but Ohtani posted a huge 149 wRC+ in 367 plate appearances as a rookie, while also pitching to a 3.31 ERA in ten starts.  The performance netted him the AL Rookie of the Year award in 2018.  But aside from dealing with blisters that year, Ohtani came down with an elbow sprain in June.  He got a platelet-rich plasma injection, stopped pitching for the season, and continued hitting.  He returned to the mound for a brief outing in September that year, and then underwent Tommy John surgery after the season ended.

Ohtani was still able to hit in 2019, returning in May of that year and posting a 120 wRC+ on the season.  That campaign ended early with surgery to address a bipartite patella in his left knee.  The pandemic delayed the start of the 2020 season, resulting in a gap of nearly two years between Major League pitching appearances for Ohtani.

Based on where he went in my fantasy baseball drafts in March 2021, expectations were relatively low for Ohtani entering that season.  Ohtani shattered those expectations, winning the AL MVP award in ’21 and finishing second in ’22.  He posted a 146 wRC+ with 80 home runs in 1,305 plate appearances during that time.  Ohtani also made 51 starts across 296 1/3 innings, posting a 2.70 ERA and 31.4 K%.  His pitching performance netted a fourth place Cy Young finish in 2022.

Over the past two seasons, Ohtani accomplished what many thought simply could not be done in modern MLB.  Ohtani, who turns 29 in July, is simultaneously one of the best hitters and pitchers in MLB.  He was worth 17.5 WAR from 2021-22, edging out Aaron Judge for the best in the game.  Ohtani is a once-in-a-lifetime sensation at the peak of his abilities.

Ohtani is earning an arbitration-record $30MM this year, and he’s on track for free agency after the season.  Angels owner Arte Moreno was unwilling to part with Ohtani despite trade offers last summer, just as he was ultimately unwilling to sell his team this winter despite soliciting bids.  Moreno hopes to retain his two-way star, but told reporters, “Ohtani has to want to be here too.”  Moreno expressed willingness to go over the competitive balance tax threshold, but also admitted that the club has not had discussions with Ohtani.

The Angels have never had a winning season in Ohtani’s five years with the club, though that might change in 2023.  Asked about the extension possibility in February, agent Nez Balelo said, “I’ve always been open to it. But there’s several layers to this one, and Shohei’s earned the right to play through the year, explore free agency, and we’ll see where it shakes out.”

So, what actually drives Shohei Ohtani?  There’s evidence it’s not entirely money, since he chose to come to MLB at age 23.  His age limited him to a $2.3MM signing bonus, when waiting two more years could’ve resulted in over $100MM more.  Ohtani’s six other finalists in 2017 were the Mariners, Rangers, Cubs, Padres, Dodgers and Giants.  At the time, Balelo said, “While there has been much speculation about what would drive Shohei’s decision, what mattered to him most wasn’t market size, time zone or league but that he felt a true bond with the Angels.”

Still, many have noted that most of Ohtani’s finalists were on the West Coast.  And it’s certainly logical that after accomplishing so much as an individual, Ohtani will focus on joining a team he believes will be a perennial contender.  The Dodgers and Padres are oft-cited potential matches, and most expect the Mets to be heavily involved.  The Giants took two large swings at star players last winter, and the Yankees and Mariners shouldn’t be discounted.  I’m sure you could name a half-dozen at least semi-reasonable fits.  In terms of payroll commitments for 2024 and beyond, the Dodgers, Giants, and Mariners are much better-positioned than the Yankees, Padres, and Mets, though it’s difficult to picture Steve Cohen staying out of the fray.

The largest contract in MLB history remains Mookie Betts’ 12-year, $365MM extension in July 2020, though it included significant deferrals.  Ohtani’s teammate Mike Trout received $360MM in new money back in 2019.  So no one has even signed for $400MM yet, though the Padres reportedly offered Judge around $415MM and the Nationals offered Juan Soto $440MM.

No one doubts that Ohtani will become the first player to truly top the $400MM barrier, and common speculation is that he will reach $500MM.  Where will the bidding stop for a generational talent and marketing bonanza such as Ohtani?  I’m not willing to rule out a $600MM contract, though perhaps something in the $550MM range could represent a sweet spot.

The 2022-23 offseason included a trend toward extra-long contracts, with Machado, Trea Turner, and Xander Bogaerts all getting 11-year contracts paying through age 40.  The goal of those was to reduce the average annual value and accompanying CBT hit.  Going through age 40 would mean a 12-year contract for Ohtani, though I personally think a 14-year term has a chance of passing MLB’s scrutiny.  It’s been suggested that the Padres’ concept of paying Judge through age 44 wouldn’t have passed muster, but that’s not to say going through age 42 is off the table.

If Ohtani aims for maximum dollars and the $40MM standard only Judge has achieved on a long-term deal, I think 14 years and $560MM could be an end point.  There’s also an argument that since Ohtani is both an elite hitter and pitcher, he should land an average annual value in excess of $45MM or even $50MM.  Max Scherzer currently holds the record at $43,333,333.33 per year, though only Judge received $40MM for more than three years.

I could also be wildly wrong and Ohtani could fall well short of the $560MM guess.  Nor do I have any idea whether Ohtani will accept the largest deal proposed to him.  Buckle up for what could be the most fascinating and frenzied free agency in MLBTR’s 17-year history.  Our Ohtani page can be found here, which we’ll be beefing up with some additional quality content soon.

2.  Julio Urias, SP, Dodgers:  Urias may not generate the hype of Ohtani, but the lefty is a former prodigy in his own right and our clear #2 for earning power in this free agent class.  After being handled carefully as a minor leaguer, Urias made his Major League debut for the Dodgers at the age of 19, way back in 2016.  His pitch counts were kept low, and at the end of a successful season Urias made two playoff appearances for the Dodgers, including an NLCS start.

Unfortunately, Urias came down with a serious shoulder injury in June 2017, and anterior capsule surgery was required.  He went nearly 16 months between MLB appearances.  In 2019, Urias was again handled carefully, pitching out of the bullpen more often than the rotation.  That year, he was arrested on suspicion of domestic violence, according to the LAPD.  MLB ultimately issued a 20-game suspension.

Urias entered 2020 without restrictions, and wound up making ten starts in the pandemic-shortened season.  He was utilized creatively in the postseason that year, making two starts and four multi-inning relief appearances.  Urias memorably got the last seven outs in Game 6 of the 2020 World Series, freezing Willy Adames with a called strike for the last one and getting mobbed by his Dodgers teammates after winning it all.

Urias further turned a corner in 2021, topping 200 innings between the regular season and postseason – easily a career-high.  He won 20 games with a 2.96 ERA and finished seventh in the NL Cy Young voting.  He followed that up in 2022 with a third-place Cy Young finish and an NL-best 2.16 ERA.

Despite a 2.57 ERA from 2021-22 that ranked second among all qualified starters, Urias can’t quite be described as dominant.  His 25.2 K% during that time was still above-average, ranking 21st among starters.  His pinpoint control was even better, with a 5.5 BB% that ranked ninth.  Much of Urias’ success can be attributed to his ability to limit hard contact.  His BABIP was just .251 from 2021-22, third-lowest in MLB, and his Statcast hard-hit rate ranked second each year.  Urias is not particularly adept at getting groundballs, but fewer of the flyballs he allows leave the yard.

So Urias’ case as one of the best pitchers in baseball is based more on great control and weak contact than it is punching out batters.  His results are undeniable.  But the factor that sends his earning power through the roof is his age: he does not turn 27 until August.  Because players so rarely debut at the age of 19, it follows that a free agent ace entering his age-27 season is extremely uncommon.  We have seen it on the position player side, such as Bryce Harper and Manny Machado hitting free agency in advance of their age-26 campaigns.

Pitchers are seen as greater risks than position players, so Harper’s 13-year term probably isn’t happening with Urias.  On the other hand, last offseason’s trend for star free agents was all about reaching a specific total, with the years and average annual value being secondary.  Agent Scott Boras likely has a clear target to attempt to top: Stephen Strasburg’s $245MM, a contract he brokered in December 2019.  If getting there requires a term that would’ve previously been considered untenable, such as nine or ten years, that wouldn’t shock me.

It is worth noting that Strasburg’s contract has been a disaster due to injuries.  Urias’ shoulder surgery will be more than six years behind him when he hits free agency, but a clean bill of health will be crucial to any monster long-term deal.  There’s also the matter of Urias’ good-but-not-amazing strikeout rate in an age where some starters can whiff more than 30% of batters faced.  Urias doesn’t have that, and his fastball averages 93 miles per hour rather than 97.  So while I think Boras’ goal and expectation will be $250MM+, it remains to be seen whether Urias can secure the second-largest pitcher contract of all-time behind Gerrit Cole’s $324MM.

Where do the Dodgers stand on Urias?  The club has been perfectly willing to let star free agents leave, while also retaining other long-time Dodgers or occasionally plucking a top free agent from another team.  In other words, there’s no way to know their intentions with Urias based on their history.  I will say that I could see the potential risk being too high for the Dodgers, and it’s possible they focus their efforts on Ohtani or other top free agent pitchers.

3.  Aaron Nola, SP, Phillies:  Nola and Urias will make for an interesting comparison, if both reach the open market after the season.

Nola turns 30 in June, so he’s about three years older than Urias.  Nola was drafted seventh overall by the Phillies in 2014 out of Louisiana State, making his MLB debut the following year at the age of 22.  He was seen as more of a high floor than a high ceiling pitcher at the time.

Nola experienced an early-career hiccup in August of 2016, when he hit the IL for an elbow strain.  That injury ended Nola’s season after 20 starts.  Nola was able to recover from the strain without surgery, and has not gone on the IL for an arm injury since.  Furthermore, Nola has become the game’s preeminent workhorse, leading all pitchers in innings from 2018-22.

Nola is much more ace than innings guy, however, having turned a corner in 2018 with a third-place Cy Young finish.  He also finished seventh in 2020, and fourth in ’22.  Like Urias, Nola works around 93 miles per hour, but the Phillies’ righty has racked up strikeouts at an elite clip.  From 2020-22, Nola whiffed 30% of batters faced, ninth in MLB among qualified starters.  His control is even better than that of Urias, with a 4.9 BB% during that time that ranked fourth among starters.

Nola added his first playoff experience last year in the Phillies’ run to the World Series.  A pair of excellent starts helped the Phillies advance, though he faltered in the NLCS and World Series.

Nola’s groundball rate has slipped in recent years, and his Statcast marks haven’t been consistently excellent the way Urias’ have.  That means Nola’s home run rate and batting average on balls in play can fluctuate season-to-season.  That’s how he was able to post a 2.37 ERA in 2018 but a 4.63 mark in 2021 despite arguably demonstrating better skills in the latter season.

Back when Nola had three years of MLB service, he inked a four-year extension with the Phillies that included a club option on a fifth year, which the Phillies gladly exercised.  If he remains healthy and effective in 2023, a contract north of $200MM has to be in play if Nola reaches the open market.

Nola and the Phillies have shown mutual interest in a contract extension this year, with offers being exchanged in February.  Talks were tabled when an agreement could not be reached prior to the season, but both Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski and agent Joe Longo spoke positively of rekindling discussions after the season.  That can be difficult when free agency is days rather than months or years away, but it has happened before and remains a possibility here.

4.  Yoshinobu Yamamoto, SP, Orix Buffaloes: Back in February, Joel Sherman of the New York Post wrote that there is “strong belief among MLB teams” that Yamamoto will be posted by the Buffaloes after the season.  As MLBTR’s Steve Adams wrote, “Yamamoto is already a four-time NPB All-Star and has taken home both the Pacific League MVP Award and the Sawamura Award (Japan’s equivalent to MLB’s Cy Young Award) in each of the past two seasons.”

Adams compiled stats and various scouting reports suggesting Yamamoto could profile as an ace or something close to it in MLB as well.  But the kicker is that Yamamoto doesn’t turn 25 until August, so he’s two years younger than even Urias.  Pitchers this good and this young can basically only come through international free agency, and Yamamoto will be right at the age that allows for the full bidding war that Ohtani passed on when he came over.

Masahiro Tanaka comes to mind as a someone who moved from NPB to MLB at the same age and at a time when there was open bidding on posted players.  Tanaka’s deal with the Yankees was finalized in January 2014.  That was a seven-year, $155MM contract plus a $20MM posting fee.  That contract notably included an opt-out clause after the fourth season.

The current posting agreement calls for 20% of the first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM, and 15% of the remainder.  Using a $200MM contract as an example, the posting fee would be $31.875MM.  The posting fee is not part of the competitive balance tax calculation, however, presenting a carrot to teams that carry payrolls high enough to be affected by the CBT.

Ten years after the Tanaka deal, I feel Yamamoto is indeed capable of reaching $200MM before accounting for a posting fee.  However, in this age where teams try to stretch out contracts as long as possible, given his youth Yamamoto might prefer either the flexibility to opt out, the total expiration of the contract while he’s still young enough to be a desirable free agent again, or both.  Though Ohtani will loom large over this offseason, Yamamoto getting posted would be a huge story in its own right.

5.  Matt Chapman, 3B, Blue Jays:  The conversation about Matt Chapman starts with his stellar defense at third base.  Since breaking in with the A’s in 2017, Chapman has snagged three Gold Glove awards, most recently in 2021.

Statcast Outs Above Average backs up Chapman’s defensive excellence, as he’s ranked in the top four at third base in 2017, ’18, and ’19 and first in ’21.  Pandemic-shortened season aside, the only interruption in Chapman’s run of top-shelf defense, at least according to the numbers, was in 2022.  He graded out as more of an average defender last year.  While Chapman’s reputation deservedly holds strong, a strong showing this year will only help his earning power in free agency.

From 2018-19 with the A’s, Chapman’s bat aligned with his glove to push him into 6-WAR superstar territory.  Chapman posted a 132 wRC+ during that time, mashing 60 home runs.  Chapman’s strikeout rate climbed to a dangerous level in the shortened 2020 season, and then he underwent surgery to repair a torn right hip labrum in September of that year.  Chapman had his worst year with the bat in 2021, and the A’s shipped him to Toronto in March 2022 as part of their post-lockout fire sale.

Chapman’s strikeout rate climbed and his batting average plummeted since 2020, though he’s remained an above-average hitter.  He posted a solid 117 wRC+ in 2022, with 90th percentile-range Statcast metrics suggesting room for more.  That has indeed been the case in the early going of 2023, though it’s only been 48 plate appearances at the time of this writing.

Chapman’s 30th birthday is approaching this month, so he’ll play next year at 31.  That could invite comparisons to the free agent contracts signed by Marcus Semien and George Springer, with seven and six-year terms respectively.

However, I keep harping on how the old free agency principles went out the window last winter, so Chapman and agent Scott Boras are hardly limited to a seven-year term.  It’s not difficult to picture a return to the 6-WAR level for Chapman this year and a contract expectation north of $200MM.

Asked about free agency in February, Chapman said all the right things, but there’s no known momentum toward a long-term deal with the Blue Jays.  With fellow third basemen Manny Machado and Rafael Devers staying put, Chapman has emerged as the top non-Ohtani free agent position player of the 2023-24 free agent class.

6.  Lucas Giolito, SP, White Sox: Giolito was drafted 16th overall by the Nationals in 2012 out of Harvard-Westlake High School.  He was a key piece on the trade that sent Adam Eaton to the Nats in December 2016.

Giolito struggled mightily in his first full season in the Majors in 2018, and then did a complete about-face in 2019 by making the All-Star team and finishing sixth in the AL Cy Young voting.  He finished seventh and 11th in the years that followed, posting a 3.47 ERA with a 30.7 K% from 2019-21.

Giolito’s performance fell off quite a bit in 2022.  His average fastball velocity dropped from 93.9 miles per hour to 92.6, and his strikeout and walk rates both went in the wrong direction.  While Giolito’s spin rates did go down quite a bit with the June 2021 sticky stuff crackdown, that’s overly simplistic as a complete explanation for his decline.  As John Foley of Pitcher List wrote, “Rather than it being one clear issue to blame, it seems Giolito dealt with a number of seemingly smaller things – perhaps the early season core injury, the COVID illness, the new bulk on his frame, or the changed ability to grip the ball, or some combination thereof – that resulted in subtle mechanical tweaks that decreased the quality of his stuff, reduced the deception in his delivery, and broke down how well his pitches tunneled together.”

It’s far too early to tell whether Giolito will right the ship in 2023.  And even if Giolito doesn’t come all the way back to his 2019-21 levels, he reinvented himself once before, and there are teams that have had more success coaxing the most out of starting pitchers than the White Sox.  For all the extensions the White Sox have worked out, a deal with Giolito doesn’t appear to be in the cards.  Giolito, still only 29 in July, figures to secure an opt-out if his 2023 performance disappoints.

7.  Teoscar Hernandez – RF, Mariners:  Hernandez was signed by the Astros for $20K out of the Dominican Republic in 2011.  The club shipped Hernandez and Nori Aoki to the Blue Jays for Francisco Liriano at the 2017 trade deadline.  Prior to that season, Hernandez was considered a 55-grade prospect by Baseball America.

Jose Bautista’s departure opened up a spot for Hernandez in 2018, and he became a starter at the outfield corners for the Jays.  After a couple years of slightly above-average offensive production, Hernandez turned a corner in 2020 with a 142 wRC+ and 16 homers in 207 plate appearances.  That power was no fluke, as Hernandez posted a 131 wRC+ from 2021-22 with 57 home runs, cutting his strikeout rate a bit as an added bonus.  He picked up Silver Slugger awards and MVP votes in both ’20 and ’21.

Overall as a hitter, Hernandez is known for big power, top of the chart Statcast metrics, a still-high strikeout rate, and a middling walk rate.  Though he has a strong arm, Hernandez’s right field defense typically grades as below-average.  Since 2020, the total package has resulted in about 4 WAR per 650 plate appearances.  Hernandez has not actually reached that plate appearance plateau, however, as he’s had IL stints for multiple oblique strains.  He’s set to turn 31 in October.

Seeking a controllable bullpen arm and perhaps some payroll flexibility, the Blue Jays traded Hernandez to the Mariners last November for setup man Erik Swanson as well as prospect Adam Macko.  The Mariners have given no signal an extension is in the works for Hernandez, and they beat him in an arbitration hearing in February.  He may wind up a one-year rental for Seattle.

As a free agent, Hernandez gives off some Nick Castellanos vibes, though we think he can top that player’s $100MM deal.  Hernandez lost a key competitor in the market with Ian Happ signing a three-year extension with the Cubs.

8.  Jordan Montgomery, SP – Cardinals: Montgomery, a 30-year-old lefty, was drafted by the Yankees in the fourth round out of the University of South Carolina back in 2014.  He was able to land the team’s fifth starter job out of camp as a rookie in 2017, though he was not needed until April 12th.

Montgomery had a strong year for the 2017 Yankees despite getting pushed out of the rotation occasionally due to the team’s trades, putting up a 3.88 ERA in 29 starts and finishing sixth in the AL Rookie of the Year voting.

Montgomery opened 2018 as the Yankees’ fifth starter once again, but unfortunately went down for Tommy John surgery in June.  His recovery resulted in a 16.5 month gap between MLB appearances, as the lefty got in a couple of brief September appearances in ’19.  Pandemic year aside, Montgomery returned to his rookie-year level of performance with a solid 2021 season for New York.

At the trade deadline last year, the Yankees made the surprising choice to ship Montgomery to the Cardinals for center fielder Harrison Bader, who was on the IL at the time.  The jury is still out on that trade, but thus far in 13 starts for the Cardinals running into this year, Montgomery has posted a 2.97 ERA.  He also contributed a scoreless appearance for the Cards in last year’s Wild Card game.

Montgomery has bumped up his velocity post Tommy John, now working above 93 miles per hour on average.  Last year he posted a 21.8 K% that improved when he joined the Cardinals, as well as a fine 5% walk rate that fits with his strong control.  It’ll be interesting to see if Montgomery can continue to push his strikeout rate forward, which would only help his earning power.

MLBTR’s Anthony Franco and Steve Adams pushed for Montgomery to get a spot on this list, suggesting a strong season could vault him past the new Jameson Taillon–Taijuan Walker $70MM tier, perhaps to the $100MM range.  He’s got upside to climb as high as sixth in our power rankings this year.

9.  Josh Hader, RP – Padres:  Hader was a 19th round draft pick by the Orioles out of Maryland’s Old Mill High School back in 2012.  At the 2013 trade deadline, the Orioles sent Hader, L.J. Hoes, and a competitive balance round A pick to the Astros for Bud Norris.  Two years later, however, the Astros sent Hader, Adrian Houser, Brett Phillips, and Domingo Santana to the Brewers for Mike Fiers, Carlos Gomez, and cash.  So that makes two players on this list who were traded away as Astros prospects by Jeff Luhnow.

Hader made his MLB debut for the Brewers in 2017 as a reliever.  At the time, he was still thought to be a starter long-term.  However, as sometimes happens, Hader was so good in the bullpen that the Brewers were never willing or able to move him back into a starting role.  He made his first All-Star team with a dominant 2018, posting an obscene 46.7 K% and finishing seventh in the Cy Young voting.  Hader was used as a multi-inning weapon that year, getting more than three outs 33 times and averaging 1.47 innings per appearance.

The following year, Hader replicated his huge strikeout rate and made another All-Star team.  It was also the last time he averaged more than an inning per appearance.  He racked up 37 saves and inched closer to being used in a traditional stopper role.  Hader made All-Star teams again in ’21 and ’22.

At last year’s trade deadline, three games up in the NL Central, the Brewers attempted to thread the needle by trading Hader to the Padres.  In theory, they could shed some payroll in ’22 and ’23, replace Hader in the bullpen with Taylor Rogers, and pick up prospects Esteury Ruiz and Robert Gasser along the way.  While that plan did not pan out for Milwaukee, Hader also had a rough entry to his Padres career.  He’d already torched his ERA in two appearances prior to the trade, and then shortly after joining the Padres allowed 12 earned runs in three innings.

Hader then righted the ship for the Padres, closing out the regular season by allowing one run in 11 1/3 innings.  He then dropped an additional 5 1/3 scoreless innings in a dominant postseason.  The Padres had no problem paying Hader $14.1MM for his final arbitration year in ’23.

Hader is a lanky 29-year-old lefty who has generally worked in the 95-97 mile per hour range.  He remains capable of striking out more than 40% of batters faced, allowing 10-11% to reach base via the free pass.  The walks can be less than ideal, and Hader has also been burned by the longball at times.  He’s a flyball pitcher, made worse by a 14% career home run per flyball rate.  In a 60-inning season it would be normal for Hader to allow seven or eight home runs, and in 2019 he gave up 15 bombs.

Despite those flaws, Hader can still be one of baseball’s most dominant relievers, hugely valuable for teams with postseason expectations.  Edwin Diaz’s record five-year, $102MM deal could be in play for Hader with a big year, or perhaps he could land in the $80-90MM range occupied by Kenley Jansen and Aroldis Chapman in the 2016-17 offseason.

10.  Blake Snell, SP – Padres: Snell, 31 in December, was drafted 52nd overall by the Rays in 2011 out of Shorewood High School in Washington.  He was a supplemental draft pick the Rays received for the loss of free agent Brad Hawpe.

Prior to his 2016 Major League debut, Snell ascended to become a consensus top-15 prospect in the game.  The lefty didn’t really settle into the Rays’ rotation until the end of 2017.  2018 was a special year for Snell, as he won the AL Cy Young award, also making the All-Star team and grabbing MVP votes.  His 1.89 ERA topped the American League, and he won 21 games while pitching a career-high 180 2/3 innings.  That was the year Snell’s strikeout rate shot upward past 30%, a level he’s maintained since.  Snell’s dominant 2018 performance led to a five-year, $50MM contract extension prior to 2019.

In July of 2019, Snell underwent arthroscopic elbow surgery, knocking him out for nearly two months.  He made it through the shortened 2020 season unscathed, famously getting pulled by manager Kevin Cash in Game 6 of the World Series after 73 pitches and 5 1/3 innings, having allowed one run on two hits.

Two months later, the Rays moved on from Snell, trading him to the Padres for four players.  He tallied 256 2/3 innings from 2021-22, including time missed for gastroenteritis and multiple groin strains.

Snell received a cortisone shot for his elbow in February 2020, but technically he hasn’t been on the IL for an arm injury since his surgery nearly four years ago.  The knock on Snell is less health and more that he’s never been one to go deep into games.  He averaged over 5.8 innings per start in his Cy Young season, but has otherwise come in south of 5.4.  And from 2019-21, he managed only 4.7 innings per start.  Part of the issue is Snell’s walk rate, which sits north of 10% for his career and can climb above 12%.  In 2022, the average starting pitcher worked 5.2 innings per start, walking 7.5% of batters.

As a lefty working at 95-96 miles per hour, Snell still has the ability to dominate, as evidenced by his high strikeout rates.  And the game has been trending toward shorter starts, with teams increasingly reluctant to let their starter face a lineup a third time.  Snell’s 5.33 innings per start in 2022 ranked 81st in MLB among those with at least 15 starts.  While that’s not impressive, it also wasn’t far off from Charlie Morton (5.55), Jameson Taillon (5.53), Nathan Eovaldi (5.46), Taijuan Walker (5.42), Lucas Giolito and Luis Severino (5.37).  It’s also ahead of several players who got $12MM+ per year in free agency, like Jose Quintana, Ross Stripling, and Mike Clevinger.

Perhaps Snell’s Cy Young season created unreasonable expectations, but he remains a very good pitcher with ample postseason experience.  With a typical season, he should be able to top Taijuan Walker’s four-year, $72MM deal.

Honorable Mentions

Other players considered for this list, or who have a chance to play their way onto it, include Max Scherzer, Luis Severino, Tyler Mahle, Sean Manaea, Harrison Bader, Michael Conforto, Amed Rosario, and Jung Hoo Lee.  Of course, one of the best parts of baseball is surprising performances, and we’ll revisit the 2023-24 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings every month.

The MLB Trade Rumors Podcast Is Back!

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The MLB Trade Rumors Podcast, last heard in 2016 hosted by the esteemed Jeff Todd, has relaunched!  Simon Hampton is now your host, and we’re very excited to bring the new show to you every week.

Episode 1 is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well; use this link to find the show on Spotify and this one for Apple.  You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Simon Hampton is joined by Anthony Franco to discuss a wide range of topics around the baseball world:

  • An early look at the trade deadline possibilities, particularly focusing on Shohei Ohtani and what it make take for the Angels to listen to offers on the two-way star (3:19)
  • Jake Cronenworth signed a seven-year, $80MM extension with the Padres, so what does that mean for San Diego’s chances at extending other players such as Juan Soto, Josh Hader and Blake Snell? (7:31)
  • It’s easy to over-react to results in the first week of the season, so at what point is it reasonable to become concerned with a team’s performance? And what about the players? (12:30)

Plus, we answer your questions, including:

  • Could the Marlins match up with the Yankees on a trade involving Oswald Peraza? And which of Miami’s pitchers could be in play at the deadline? (16:56)
  • Will the Cardinals make a move to bolster their rotation at some stage this season? And if so, which players could be in play? (21:24)
  • The Dodgers took a step back this winter, so how aggressive will they be at the deadline this year? And are they clearing payroll space for a crack at Shohei Ohtani? (26:09)

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Padres Likely To Explore Extension Talks With Josh Hader, Juan Soto This Spring

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The Padres achieved their top priority of the spring over the weekend, agreeing to an 11-year, $350MM deal with Manny Machado to keep him from retesting the free agent market next offseason. That came on the heels of a summer deal for Joe Musgrove and a recent extension with Yu Darvish.

Even after that series of transactions, the Friars have a handful of key players slated to hit the open market within the next two years. Last summer’s marquee deadline acquisitions — Josh Hader and Juan Soto — are both deep into their arbitration seasons. Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes that San Diego is likely to soon be in contact with both players’ camps to discuss possible extension frameworks. Dennis Lin of the Athletic similarly wrote this week the Friars were likely to take a run at extension talks with Soto.

There hasn’t been as much speculation regarding possible Hader negotiations. It’s not a surprise that president of baseball operations A.J. Preller and his front office plan to at least check in with the four-time All-Star, though. Hader is one season away from the open market and joins Blake Snell as the top impending free agents on the San Diego roster.

29 next month, Hader has a chance of securing a record-setting deal for a reliever. He owns a sterling 2.71 ERA with an eye-popping 43.2% strikeout rate over parts of six big league campaigns. No pitcher (minimum 200 innings) has punched out hitters at a higher rate since Hader came into the league. He’s three percentage points clear of second-place finisher Edwin Díaz. Hader also leads the league in SIERA (2.13) and swinging strike percentage (19.2%) over that stretch.

Díaz is second in both those categories as well. The Mets’ closer became the first reliever in league history to top the hundred million dollar mark this offseason, returning to Queens on a five-year, $102MM pact days before free agency opened. Díaz signed that deal in advance of his age-29 campaign and coming off one of the most dominant seasons by a closer in recent memory. He fanned more than half his opponents en route to a 1.31 ERA in 62 innings.

Hader, on the other hand, is coming off arguably the worst season of his career. He allowed more than five earned runs per nine, including a disappointing 7.31 mark in 19 appearances after the Padres acquired him from Milwaukee. Hader was a bit homer-prone early in the season with the Brewers. While he got that under control in San Diego, his walk rate jumped a few percentage points towards year’s end.

Despite that wobbly conclusion, Hader still enters extension negotiations with strong leverage. He’ll play the upcoming season on a hefty $14.1MM contract after avoiding arbitration. The lanky southpaw remains one of the sport’s highest-upside relief weapons. Even in his relative down year, Hader finished sixth among relievers who threw 50+ innings with a 37% strikeout rate. He placed 18th in swinging strike rate and averaged a personal-high 97.4 MPH on his sinker.

Hader’s youth and career résumé still position him as the favorite for the largest contract among relievers in next winter’s class. Díaz’s deal serves as a reference for the kind of money Hader could land if he had a vintage platform season. The New York righty had some ups and downs in the years leading up to 2022 — including a 5.59 ERA in 2019 and a fine but not overwhelming 3.45 mark in ’21 — before reaching new heights last season.

Considering his hefty arbitration salaries and proximity to free agency, Hader isn’t under pressure to sign for below-market rates this spring. He told Heyman he’d “definitely” be open to extension talks but didn’t offer any indication he’d take a hometown discount. “It’s a great place to be, but at the end of the day, business is business,” Hader said.

Locking up Soto would be an even more challenging endeavor, of course. The three-time Silver Slugger is playing this season on a $23MM arbitration contract. He’s likely to approach or top $30MM for his final arbitration season in 2024 and is trending towards free agency over the 2024-25 offseason. Soto would hit the market before his age-26 campaign and is generally expected to command the largest guarantee in league history (although the intervening potential free agency of Shohei Ohtani could first set a new high-water mark).

Soto has already declined an offer for what would’ve been the largest deal in MLB history. The Nationals reportedly offered a 15-year, $440MM pact last summer. Soto passed, leading Washington to pivot to trade discussions that’d eventually culminate in one of the biggest deadline deals ever. Soto’s performance in San Diego after the trade — .238/.388/.390 with more walks than strikeouts through 228 plate appearances — was disappointing by his massive standards but still markedly above average.

It stands to reason the Padres would at least have to beat the $440MM the Nats were prepared to offer in order to convince Soto to bypass a trip to the open market. How high he and his representatives are aiming isn’t clear, though Soto told Heyman his camp is “open to talking” with San Diego brass. However, he also added that “every player wants to get a try at free agency and a chance to decide where they want to go and where is best for their family.”

The Padres project for the third-highest luxury tax payroll in the majors this season, with Roster Resource forecasting them just under $275MM at present. Long-term deals for Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Xander Bogaerts, Musgrove, Darvish and Robert Suarez already have upwards of $130MM on the books through 2027. Tatis, Bogaerts and Machado alone will count for nearly $100MM annually between 2028-33. That’s plenty of future money tied up, though it also reinforces how willing owner Peter Seidler and the front office have been to commit to star talent.

Padres Avoid Arbitration With Juan Soto, Josh Hader

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The Padres have avoided arbitration with two stars. San Diego and Juan Soto agreed to a $23MM contract, while they inked Josh Hader to a $14.1MM deal.

Aside from Shohei Ohtani — who agreed to a $30MM deal with the Angels at the end of last season — Soto is the highest-profile player in this year’s arbitration class. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected him for the highest salary of any arb-eligible player, forecasting him to land at $21.5MM. Soto comes in a bit above that and secures a little more than a $6MM raise on last season’s $17.1MM salary.

Acquired from Washington in one of the biggest deadline trades in MLB history, Soto posted a .236/.388/.390 line through his first 228 plate appearances with the Friars. That was below his usual otherworldly standards but still excellent output thanks to a massive 19.3% walk percentage and just a 14.9% strikeout rate. Including his first-half numbers in Washington, he hit .242/.401/.452 with 27 homers over 664 plate appearances.

The Friars will be able to control Soto for one additional season before he’d hit free agency after the 2024 campaign. He’s on track to reach the open market in advance of his age-26 season and trending towards a potential record-setting deal. San Diego surely has interest in working out a long-term agreement with the Boras Corporation client. Soto declined a 15-year, $440MM extension offer from Washington before being traded, ostensibly setting the floor in any negotiations with the Friars.

Hader landed with the Padres in a massive deadline deal as well. Acquired from the Brewers in a surprising swap, he struggled to a 7.31 ERA through his first 16 innings in San Diego. A spike in walks played a role in those anomalous struggles, though Hader was also plagued by an unsustainably high .372 batting average on balls in play against him. He’d only managed a 4.24 ERA over 34 innings with Milwaukee before the trade but struck out an eye-popping 41.8% of his opponents for the Brew Crew.

The lanky southpaw has an established multi-year track record as one of the sport’s most dominant late-game arms. He owns a career 2.71 ERA with a 43.2% strikeout percentage over 332 1/3 big league innings. Hader has collected 132 saves along the way and been selected to the All-Star Game four times. He’s rewarded with one of the largest arbitration deals of the winter himself, narrowly topping his $13.6MM projection.

With over five years of MLB service, Hader avoids arbitration for the final time. He’s on track to hit free agency next winter, when he’ll be headed into his age-30 season. With a typically dominant showing in 2023, Hader would have a chance at topping the reliever record $102MM free agent contract signed by Edwin Díaz this offseason.

Jeff Passan of ESPN reported the Soto agreement. Robert Murray of FanSided reported the Hader deal.

Brewers Notes: Stearns, Wong, Turang

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The Brewers entered the 2022 season with high expectations on the heels of a 95-win campaign, but Milwaukee came up a bit short of a playoff berth. The Brew Crew finished 86-76 and were eliminated two days before the final game of the regular season.

President of baseball operations David Stearns met with reporters yesterday to discuss the team’s finish (link via Curt Hogg and Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel). He unsurprisingly expressed disappointment with missing the postseason, for which he took no small share of the blame. Asked about the team’s trade deadline approach — specifically the decision to deal All-Star reliever Josh Hader to the Padres for Taylor Rogers, Dinelson Lamet (who was almost immediately waived) and prospects Esteury Ruiz and Robert Gasser — Stearns acknowledged he didn’t fully appreciate how much of an impact the trade would have in the clubhouse and on the field.

“The Hader trade clearly had an impact on the team,” Stearns said. “It had a more pronounced impact than I thought it would at the time, and the surrounding moves didn’t adequately fortify the team in Josh’s absence.” He stopped short of saying he regretted the move, pointing to the long-term window of club control the team has over Ruiz and Gasser. He nevertheless noted that not making the postseason despite having a lead in the division as late as August 5 leads to “(looking) back and (saying) what more could we have done, what different could we have done.”

Hader himself wasn’t lights-out for San Diego. Through 16 innings as a Padre, the hard-throwing southpaw allowed 14 runs with a 28.2% strikeout rate that is far below his career norm. Yet a key justification for the Milwaukee front office in pulling the trigger on the deal was the assumption Rogers would step in as a productive relief arm himself. Instead, he posted a 5.48 ERA in 23 innings down the stretch, struggling mightily with the home run ball. Home runs were also an issue for Matt Bush, whom the Brewers added in a separate trade with the Rangers and who pitched to a 4.30 mark in 23 frames. Milwaukee’s acquisition of Trevor Rosenthal from the Giants, meanwhile, fell flat when he suffered a lat injury while trying to rehab from a hamstring strain that had him on the injured list at the time of the swap. Overall, the Milwaukee bullpen blew an MLB-worst 16 leads from deadline day forward.

That certainly wasn’t all foreseeable for the front office, but there’s no question the Brewers tried to thread a needle between remaining competitive while adding longer-term talent to the organization. That’s partially because of the franchise’s payroll outlook. Milwaukee has a massive arbitration class this winter, with 18 players eligible for that process. They won’t all be tendered contracts, but stars like Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Willy Adames are all projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for salaries north of $9MM during their penultimate years of club control. Hader, who’s headed into his final year of control, is projected for a $13.6MM salary.

Finances are always a consideration for a Milwaukee franchise that annually runs payrolls slightly below the league average. The hefty arbitration class could be a factor in the team’s decision whether to exercise a club option on second baseman Kolten Wong. Milwaukee holds a $10MM option or a $2MM buyout, leaving them with a net $8MM call as to whether to keep him for a third season. That’s a perfectly reasonable price in a vacuum, as Wong is coming off a .251/.339/.430 showing with 15 home runs across 497 plate appearances. By measure of wRC+, that production was 16 points above that of this year’s league average hitter, the best hitting season of Wong’s career.

Nevertheless, the Brewers have to weigh those strong offensive marks against a bizarrely poor defensive season. Wong is a two-time Gold Glove winner and typically a plus defender, but Statcast pegged him as seven runs below average this year. Defensive Runs Saved estimated him as just one run below par, but all public metrics agreed it was the worst defensive season of his career. Wong himself shared that sentiment, telling Hogg (separate Journal-Sentinel post) “defensively, it just wasn’t even my year” and vowing to work over the offseason to better his glovework. While that’s certainly an encouraging attitude, it’s fair to wonder whether he’ll be able to recapture his peak defensive form at age 32.

Wong also addressed his contract status. While he told Hogg he’d be happy to see his option picked up, he acknowledged Milwaukee’s hefty arbitration class and the presence of former first-round pick Brice Turang in the upper minors. Turang, 23 in November, spent all of last season at Triple-A Nashville. He hit .286/.360/.412 with 13 homers and 34 stolen bases through 603 plate appearances. Regarded as a quality defensive middle infielder, the lefty-swinging Turang will be added to the 40-man roster this offseason and could be a cheaper second base option if the Brewers decided to part with Wong.

While Wong indicated he’s not yet heard from the team one way or the other, he suggested he’d be content to explore his free agent options if it comes to that. “I’ve been a free agent one time already and it’s not the most enjoyable thing,” he told Hogg. “If I got to go through it again, it is what it is. It will be interesting to see where I’d end up landing. Milwaukee was a choice that I kind of had in mind going into free agency as a high pick for me. This next one, I just kind of want to keep an open mind and see how it goes.”

If Wong were sent back into free agency, he’d be arguably the top player in the second base class. Jean Segura, who’s likely to be bought out by the Phillies, and utilityman Brandon Drury are otherwise the best players who’ll be available.

Padres To Use Closer Committee, Give Josh Hader “A Little Break” From Save Chances

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Since being acquired by the Padres in a surprising deadline trade, Josh Hader’s San Diego tenure has gotten off to a rough start.  The All-Star has been scorched for six runs over his last three outings and 1 1/3 innings of work, and as a result, Hader has temporarily lost the closer’s job.  As Padres manager Bob Melvin told reporters (including The Athletic’s Dennis Lin), the team will deploy a committee for the ninth inning, while giving Hader “a little break” from save situations.

This obviously isn’t the outcome the Padres were hoping for when they gave up a significant prospect package to the Brewers on August 1, in addition to taking on the remainder of Hader’s $11MM salary for the 2022 season.  However, it is worth noting that we’re dealing with a very small sample size of 3 1/3 total innings for Hader in a Padres uniform.  In three of his five appearances, Hader has allowed two hits and a walk over 2 2/3 scoreless frames — but, in his other two outings, the Giants and Nationals each scored three runs off the right-hander.  The result is a 16.20 ERA for Hader since coming to San Diego.

These recent struggles also underline Hader’s dropoff in performance since the start of June.  Hader didn’t allow a single earned run over his first 19 appearances of the season, but over his last 19 2/3 innings, his ERA is a whopping 10.07, with three blown saves in 14 chances.  For comparison’s sake, Hader only blew three saves total during the 2020-21 seasons.

It is quite possible that Hader might regain his form once he gets a few more games under his belt in San Diego, and in this scenario, it might not be long before he is Melvin’s top choice at closer once again.  In the interim, the Padres could turn to any of Robert Suarez, Luis Garcia, Adrian Morejon, or Nick Martinez in save situations, depending on recent usage or specific situations.

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