Astros “Making A Push” To Sign Josh Hader
The Astros are “making a push” to sign left-hander Josh Hader, per a report from Chandler Rome and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The southpaw is represented by CAA Sports.
It hasn’t yet been reported what kind of contract discussions are taking place between the club and Hader’s representatives, but it will undoubtedly involve significant numbers. It was reported earlier this month that Hader was aiming to set a new benchmark for relievers by surpassing the Edwin Díaz deal from just over a year ago. Díaz re-signed with the Mets for $102MM over five years, though deferrals dropped the competitive balance tax value to $93MM. At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted that Hader could indeed set a new record by getting to $110MM over six years.
Those hefty proposals are a reflection of Hader’s incredible work to this point in his career. Over 349 career appearances dating back to his 2017 debut, he has allowed just 2.50 earned runs per nine innings. His 10.2% walk rate is a tad high, but he has punched out 42.2% of batters that have stepped into the box against him. That included a strange blip in 2022 when his ERA jumped to 5.22, but the peripherals were still strong and he righted the ship last year, getting that ERA all the way down to 1.28.
The vast majority of that work has come as a closer, with Hader having racked up at least 33 saves in each of the past four full seasons, as well as 13 in the shortened 2020 campaign. These kinds of elite closers don’t grow on trees. That 42.2% strikeout rate over the past seven years is the highest in baseball among those with at least five innings pitched. Díaz has punched out 40.3% of opponents in his career, though with a better walk rate than Hader and more ground balls.
If the Astros end up sealing the deal with Hader, the details will come out and we will find out how the deal compares to the one Díaz signed with the Mets. It hasn’t been a secret that Houston has been looking to upgrade its bullpen, but it is at least a bit surprising to see them going after the top available free agent. The club has only once pushed their payroll into competitive balance tax territory, and that was in the shortened 2020 season when MLB suspended the tax system amid the pandemic.
That means the franchise still technically hasn’t “paid” the tax, but it seems as though 2024 may be the year. Roster Resource currently estimates that the club’s CBT number is just over $236MM, with this year’s base threshold set for $237MM. That means that adding essentially any money at all would push them over the line. If Hader were to secure the six-year, $110MM deal that MLBTR predicted, that would come with a CBT hit of $18.33MM.
The fact that the club may be willing to finally step onto the other side of that line is perhaps a reflection of their bullpen situation. They lost each of Héctor Neris, Phil Maton and Ryne Stanek to free agency at the end of last year, subtracting three notable arms from their relief mix. General manager Dana Brown has frequently spoken about the need for bullpen upgrades this winter, and the situation got even worse with the recent news that Kendall Graveman will miss the entire 2024 campaign after undergoing shoulder surgery.
The club still has Ryan Pressly and Bryan Abreu as a strong foundation in the bullpen, but there’s plenty of uncertainty beyond those two. Rafael Montero parlayed a strong 2022 into a three-year, $34.5MM deal with Houston but then posted an ERA of 5.08 last year. Other than swingman Brandon Bielak, they don’t have any other relievers with two years of major league service time.
This week, Brown maintained that the club’s bullpen plans wouldn’t “intensify” due to the Graveman news, but perhaps it has inspired owner Jim Crane to push beyond his usual limits in order to address the relief corps. One pitcher wouldn’t eliminate the concerns around the overall depth, but the trio of Hader, Pressly and Abreu would be one of the most dominant late-inning groups in the sport.
Of course, it’s also possible the club could look to move some other contracts around in order to limbo back under the line, but that would come with its own challenges. There had been some speculation earlier this winter that Framber Valdez could be available for financial reasons, but that seemed to be a bit of wishful thinking coming from rival clubs as opposed to the Astros genuinely looking to move him. The lefty is going to make $12.1MM this year, and has one more season of arbitration control remaining, but trading him would open up a big hole in the rotation that is already going to start the season without Luis García and Lance McCullers Jr. due to injuries.
Beyond Valdez, Graveman has a CBT hit of $8MM but would be hard to move since he’s going to miss the entire season and then become a free agent. Houston would have to include some other talent, likely prospects, in order to make it worth it for another club to take that contract on. McCullers has a CBT hit of $17MM but similar logic would apply. His deal runs through 2026 but his significant health issues in his career and especially in recent years might make it hard for a deal to come together. Montero’s $11.5MM CBT hit over the next two seasons won’t be easily jettisoned after this down year.
Of course, all this is speculative under a deal with Hader is actually completed. There are still no details of what is being discussed or if it’s close to being completed. He has also received reported interest from the Orioles, while clubs like the Yankees, Rangers and Dodgers have been mentioned as speculative fits. Hader rejected a qualifying offer from the Padres so any signing club, whether it’s the Astros or someone else, will be subject to draft pick forfeiture and possibly a loss of international bonus pool money as well.
Mets Still Exploring Bullpen Market
Jan. 10: SNY’s Andy Martino indicates that the Mets are planning to spend in the vicinity of another $10MM on the 2024 payroll, with the bullpen indeed standing as the top priority. That’d very likely leave room for acquisitions along the lines of Suter, Peralta, Brebbia or other middle-tier relievers in free agency but figures to take the Mets out of the running for Hader and any of the top-tier bats left on the market.
Jan 9: The Mets have signed three relievers to major league contracts this offseason — Jorge Lopez, Michael Tonkin, Austin Adams — but perhaps aren’t yet done adding to the relief corps. Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes that while the Mets are highly unlikely to play at the top of the relief market (i.e. Josh Hader), they’re active in the lower tiers, with a preference for a left-handed arm. Brent Suter and Wandy Peralta are among the potential targets, and Sherman suggests that righty John Brebbia could be of interest to the Mets as well.
Suter, 34, has drawn some interest as a starting pitcher this winter but would presumably slot into the bullpen role for the Mets, whose president of baseball operations, David Stearns, knows the lefty quite well from the pair’s days together in Milwaukee (2016-22). Suter spent the 2023 season with the Rockies and showed no ill effects even moving to Coors Field; he logged a 3.38 ERA with an 18.8% strikeout rate, 8.6% walk rate, 46.5% grounder rate and his characteristic brand of weak contact. Suter’s 84 mph average exit velocity, 26.3% hard-hit rate and 3.3% barrel rate all ranked in the 97th percentile or better among MLB pitchers.
While Suter has never been a huge strikeout arm, his nearly-impossible-to-barrel repertoire has long made him a successful big leaguer. He touts a 3.49 ERA since making his MLB debut back in 2016 and, since moving to a relief role back in 2020, has logged a 3.16 earned run average with a 21.4% strikeout rate and 7.6% walk rate. Suter’s age and lack of velocity — he averaged just 88.3 mph on his sinker in 2023 and has never topped an 88.4 mph average — might combine to tamp down his earning power, but he’s a candidate for a multi-year deal and could hold extra appeal to Stearns due to those Brewers ties.
Peralta, meanwhile, is a known commodity to another key Mets figure: incoming manager Carlos Mendoza. The former Yankees bench coach had a first-hand look at Peralta in each of the past three seasons as he became an increasingly important arm for the Yankees. From 2021-23, Peralta logged 153 innings of 2.82 ERA ball with a 21% strikeout rate, 10.2% walk rate and huge 56.5% ground-ball rate. While Peralta isn’t quite at Suter’s level of hard contact suppression, he’s been in the 88th percentile or better in terms of his own average exit velocity in each of the past four seasons.
Brebbia, 33, has spent the past three seasons in San Francisco and fared quite well for the most part. He posted an ugly 5.89 ERA in a tiny sample of 18 innings there back in 2021 — his first season back from Tommy John surgery. Since then, he’s worked to a 3.47 ERA in 106 1/3 frames with the Giants from 2022-23. Brebbia has worked as a setup man but was also a frequent opener for the Giants. He’s fresh off a career-best 29.2% strikeout rate. In six big league seasons between the Cardinals and Giants, he’s logged a 3.42 ERA with better-than-average strikeout and walk rates of 25.5% and 7.2%, respectively.
Any of the three listed possibilities would come to the Mets with more track record than their signings to date. Mets fans might be frustrated at the lack of high-profile targets for the team outside of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who signed a 12-year contract with the Dodgers, but any of Suter, Peralta or Brebbia would improve the club’s bullpen — likely on relatively short-term deals. That comes with the benefit both of slightly bolstering the roster while also creating the possibility of emerging as a deadline trade candidate in the event that the Mets fall out of the running by July.
MLBTR Poll: Josh Hader’s Market
There’s no doubt Josh Hader is going to land the largest contract of any reliever this offseason. The more interesting question is whether he’ll establish a new high-water mark for bullpen arms.
Edwin Díaz became the first reliever to cross the nine-figure threshold. The right-hander re-signed with the Mets on a five-year, $102MM pact shortly before free agency opened during the 2022-23 offseason. (Deferrals reduced the contract’s valuation for luxury tax purposes to a little above $93MM.) That set a clear target for Hader’s camp.
Andy Martino of SNY wrote last week that teams engaged with Hader believe he’s shooting for that record. It makes for an interesting comparison between the two pitchers. Díaz was a year younger than Hader is now. The former was going into his age-29 season, while the latter turns 30 not long after Opening Day.
Hader has been a little better from a run prevention perspective. In 388 2/3 career innings, he owns a 2.50 ERA. Díaz had a 2.93 mark over 399 1/3 frames entering free agency (which is still the case because he missed the 2023 season after injuring his knee celebrating a triumph in the World Baseball Classic). While Hader showed a willingness to work multiple innings early in his career, he made clear that he preferred to occupy a single-inning role in recent seasons. Their overall body of work is about the same, while their platform-year ERAs are quite similar.
Díaz allowed a 1.31 ERA over 62 innings in 2022; Hader surrendered 1.28 earned runs per nine through 56 1/3 frames a year ago. There’s very little difference between those two numbers, although Hader probably has the more impressive figure when placed in league context. The league average ERA for relievers jumped from 3.86 to 4.17, likely reflecting both a somewhat livelier ball and rule changes implemented over the 2022-23 offseason (i.e. shift limitations) designed to tilt the game more toward offense.
Of course, there’s far more to a pitcher’s performance than keeping runs off the board. That’s particularly true for relievers, whose numbers can be skewed greatly by one poor outing (or simply a subpar defense). Díaz is probably more dominant on a pitch-for-pitch basis. While Hader has the slight edge in career strikeout rate, his approximate 37% mark in each of the past two seasons are his lowest since his rookie year. That’s still an elite number, to be clear, but it’s well shy of the laughable 50.2% of hitters whom Díaz fanned in 2022.
Opponents swung through nearly a quarter of all pitches that Díaz threw in his platform year. Hader’s 15.6% swinging strike percentage from last season was “merely” excellent, the 18th-highest rate in MLB among pitchers with 50+ innings. Díaz’s mark not only led the majors in 2022, it was three percentage points clear of second-place Andrés Muñoz. Díaz also throws a bit harder. He averaged north of 99 MPH on his fastball and nearly 91 MPH on his slider. Hader’s 96 MPH fastball and 86 MPH slider are more conventional velocity figures, although they’ve each proven almost unhittable.
The Padres made Hader a qualifying offer. New York re-signed Díaz before the deadline to make the QO but surely would have done so if they hadn’t agreed to a long-term deal. The Mets knew that re-signing Díaz was waiving their ability to collect the draft compensation they’d have received if he departed, which was presumably factored into the contract price.
Unlike the Mets, San Diego seems content to take the compensatory pick. The Padres have cut payroll and suggested they’re not going to spend at the top of the market. There haven’t been many suitors to emerge publicly. The Orioles were linked to Hader early in the offseason. They signed Craig Kimbrel to a $13MM deal and now profile as a long shot for a top-of-the-market relief splash. Teams like the Yankees, Dodgers and Rangers have been mentioned as speculative fits but without firm ties. Joel Sherman of the New York Post suggested this morning the Mets weren’t likely to be in on Hader.
Hader is one of the three to five best relievers in the sport. His camp has surely received calls that have gone unreported. Yet it’s a little surprising there haven’t been more public revelations on his market.
How will things play out? Will Hader top Díaz and where will he end up?
Will Josh Hader Surpass A $102MM Guarantee?
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No. 59% (5,956)
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Yes. 41% (4,193)
Total votes: 10,149
Where Will Hader Sign?
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Dodgers 21% (2,568)
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Rangers 17% (2,143)
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Yankees 16% (1,980)
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Phillies 12% (1,559)
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Cubs 10% (1,212)
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Giants 7% (847)
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Blue Jays 5% (656)
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Other (specify in comments) 5% (587)
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Angels 4% (533)
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Orioles 3% (388)
Total votes: 12,473
Latest On Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s Market
There’s been ample speculation about the eventual price tag of a Yoshinobu Yamamoto contract, but until early this week, the right-hander hadn’t discussed specific years and dollars with clubs, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports.
Teams eyeing the NPB ace’s services were asked to submit a “preliminary” bid early in the process to gauge the seriousness of their interest, per Passan, but a follow-up round of more concrete bidding hadn’t taken place prior to this week. Yamamoto has met with several teams recently, presumably to familiarize himself with each organization and the systems and personnel in place at each potential landing spot. Entering the week, no teams had made a formal offer of $300MM or more, despite speculation to the contrary; none, in fact, had submitted a formal offer even beyond that preliminary bid. Passan wrote that some clubs have tried to broach the subject of years and dollars, but Yamamoto’s camp preferred to hold off until this week.
The Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Giants, Red Sox, Phillies and perhaps the Blue Jays among the teams reported to have met with Yamamoto over the past 14 days. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic characterized both the Phillies and Blue Jays as teams more on the periphery of the bidding as of this morning, however (video link). It takes only one aggressive bid to change that perception, of course, but it’s notable that they’re being framed in that manner at present.
The two New York clubs have long been known to be serious bidders for Yamamoto, though the manner in which he fits into each club’s landscape of potential offseason moves is quite different. The Yankees, for instance, have no intention of easing up even if they miss on Yamamoto. If they can’t lure the 25-year-old righty to the Bronx, Rosenthal suggests they’ll look to bolster the roster elsewhere. Among the possibilities he lays out are a run at bringing Jordan Montgomery back to the Bronx or perhaps building a stacked bullpen with pursuits of top-tier relievers like Josh Hader, Jordan Hicks and Robert Stephenson.
That seems to be a direct contrast to how the Mets are approaching the situation. The Athletic’s Will Sammon wrote over the weekend that the Mets are focused on Yamamoto and Yamamoto alone; they’re not expected to change course and pursue other marquee additions if Yamamoto ultimately signs elsewhere. Mike Puma of the New York Post reports that the Mets will submit a formal offer to Yamamoto in the next couple of days, adding that the team’s expectation has been that Yamamoto will reach a decision before next Monday. That’s entirely dependent on the player’s mindset, of course; Yamamoto’s 45-day negotiation window with MLB clubs doesn’t draw to a close until Jan. 4.
MLBTR polled readers last week, with more than 27% indicating they believe Yamamoto will sign somewhere between $300-325MM, not including the posting/release fee owed to his former club, the Orix Buffaloes. The Yankees and Dodgers were the top predicted landing spots, with both drawing about 22% of the vote (though the Yankees technically garnered 88 more of the 17,000+ votes than the Dodgers).
Orioles Have Shown Interest In Josh Hader, Jordan Hicks
At the GM Meetings earlier this month, Baltimore general manager Mike Elias told reporters the team was seeking a late-game reliever. They’re considering plugging that vacancy in free agency.
Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that the O’s have been in contact with each of Josh Hader, Jordan Hicks, Craig Kimbrel and Aroldis Chapman. All four hurlers fit the general profile of a late-inning arm, although they’re clearly in different tiers of free agency.
Hader is the best reliever in the class (and arguably the top bullpen arm in the majors). He worked to a 1.28 ERA over 56 1/3 innings during his platform season. The lanky southpaw punched out 36.8% of batters faced. That’s actually Hader’s lowest strikeout percentage since his rookie year, yet it still ranked fifth in MLB among relievers with 50+ innings. Only Chris Martin and Brusdar Graterol had a lower earned run average.
After frequently working multiple innings earlier in his career, Hader has expressed a preference for a traditional one-inning role over the past couple years. The Padres deployed him as a closer. He picked up 33 saves in 38 attempts.
The year marked an emphatic bounce back from a 2022 season in which he’d posted an uncharacteristic 5.22 ERA. Hader has posted an ERA under 1.30 in two of the last three years and has five sub-3.00 showings over his seven MLB seasons. While he’s a year older than Edwin Díaz was last offseason, Hader figures to take aim at topping Diaz’s $102MM guarantee with the Mets — the largest relief contract in MLB history.
Committing a nine-figure deal would be far bolder than any free agent decision that the Elias front office has made. The O’s have remarkably yet to sign a single multi-year free agent deal in his five years as GM. Much of that came during a rebuild, of course, but the O’s remained cautious even as they’d begun to turn a corner last winter. Baltimore signed a trio of veterans (Kyle Gibson, Adam Frazier and Mychal Givens) for a combined $23MM on one-year guarantees.
After a breakout season that saw the O’s win 101 games to take the top seed in the American League, the front office should be more aggressive than ever. Bringing in Hader would represent a very significant shift in operating procedure. In addition to the huge financial commitment, Baltimore would have to relinquish their third-highest pick in next summer’s draft. Hader declined a qualifying offer from the Padres, so he’s attached to signing compensation.
If the O’s are willing to meet those costs, Hader is a sensible target. He’s one of the few relievers who can approach the kind of production the O’s lost when Félix Bautista underwent Tommy John surgery that’ll cost him the entire 2024 season. Hader is also a Maryland native who began his professional career as a 19th-round pick by the Orioles in 2012. While that selection was made by a previous front office, Elias was a high-ranking scouting official with the Astros when Houston acquired Hader as a prospect at the 2013 deadline.
Hader is in his own tier as a free agent relief target. Hicks finds himself in the next group, arguably the #2 option on the open market. One of the hardest throwers in the sport, he averages around 100 MPH on his sinker. Hicks has wobbly control but consistently runs huge ground-ball numbers. He’s coming off arguably the best season of his career, turning in 65 2/3 innings of 3.29 ERA ball between the Cardinals and Blue Jays. The righty struck out a solid 28.4% of batters faced, the highest rate of his career.
Injuries (most notably a June ’19 Tommy John procedure) dogged Hicks between 2019-21. He has mostly stayed healthy over the past two seasons, topping 60 frames in each. He’s also the youngest free agent reliever of note, having turned 27 in September. Hicks should secure at least three years and has a solid case for a four-year pact at an average annual value in the $8-10MM range.
Chapman and Kimbrel would be shorter-term plays. Two of the best closers of their generation, they’re each entering their age-36 campaign. Both pitchers have battled some inconsistency in recent seasons, but they’re coming off solid 2023 performances. Chapman worked to a 3.09 ERA with an eye-popping 41.4% strikeout percentage over 58 1/3 frames between the Royals and Rangers. Kimbrel posted a 3.26 ERA while fanning a little over a third of his opponents in 69 regular season innings with Philadelphia, although he struggled over six innings in the playoffs.
Phillies Rumors: Nola, Yamamoto, Snell, Hader
Aaron Nola unsurprisingly rejected the Phillies’ one-year qualifying offer this week and is now squarely on the open market in search of a long-term contract. The Phils haven’t been shy about their hope to bring him back, with president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski saying in an appearance on MLB Network’s Hot Stove last week that the team “loves” Nola and remains hopeful of working out a new contract (video link to the full nine-minute interview).
“We were not able to get him signed in spring training, which was unfortunate for us, but we understood his scenario,” Dombrowski said. “Now he’s in a spot where he has the ability to talk to 29 other clubs, so it doesn’t get any easier. But I do think there’s mutual interest in both parties trying to get something done. Hopefully for us we can get it done, because we absolutely love Aaron and what he does for the organization, not only as a person but on the field.”
More recently, The Athletic’s Jayson Stark took a look at the Phillies’ offseason decisions, writing this morning that other clubs don’t get the impression that the Phillies are willing to “go all out” to win a bidding war to retain Nola’s services. Some of that stems from the reportedly sizable gap the two parties faced in spring training. Some clubs feel the demand in Nola is substantial enough to push him to a seven-year contract, per Stark.
The Phillies ostensibly weren’t willing to go to that length (at least not at a premium annual value) back in spring, so at least logically speaking, there’s reason to doubt whether they’d be willing to do that now that Nola has pitched to a second pedestrian ERA in three seasons — albeit with still-pristine strikeout and walk rates and a big showing in the postseason.
Dombrowski was rather clear last week in asserting that the Phillies are only looking to add one starter. He stated in that MLBN appearance that if the Phils are able to re-sign Nola, their rotation will be “set.” The veteran baseball ops leader pointed to Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suarez and Taijuan Walker as locks for the rotation, adding that his club very much likes lefty Cristopher Sanchez — understandably so. The 26-year-old southpaw logged a 3.44 ERA in 99 1/3 innings, striking out 24.2% of his opponents against a brilliant 4% walk rate. Sanchez kept the ball on the ground at a terrific 57% clip as well.
While Nola may be the Phillies’ preference, bidding is expected to be competitive given his durability, command, ability to miss bats and his broader track record of run prevention. His ERA marks in 2021 and 2023 haven’t stood out, but teams regularly have demonstrated that they’re comfortable evaluating and projecting pitchers on far more than just their rudimentary earned run averages. Add in a perennially weak Phillies defense and homer-friendly home park, and it’s easy to see why other teams might be even more willing to take a pair of mid-4.00s from Nola with a grain of salt.
If Nola lands elsewhere, the Phillies will have to pursue other options, as Dombrowski alluded to. Longtime Phillies beat writer Jim Salisbury said in a radio appearance yesterday on WIP’s Midday Show that the Phils have “legitimate” interest in Yamamoto (Twitter link, with audio). They’re not connected to the 25-year-old NPB ace as frequently as other big-market clubs given the team’s general lack of success at luring star players from NPB and the KBO, but that shouldn’t expressly rule them out from making a winning bid and persuading Yamamoto to sign in Philadelphia, of course. Even teams with storied histories of signing NPB stars had to begin that track record at some point, after all.
One name not believed to be especially high on their list, per Stark, is that of likely Cy Young winner Blake Snell. Stark reports that the Phils are “lukewarm” on the lefty, though an eventual run at him could still take place if multiple preferred options land elsewhere.
It’s a similar story with closer Josh Hader, albeit for different reasons. While MLB Network’s Jon Morosi suggested Monday the Phillies could be a match with Hader, Stark indicates that opposite, writing that the Phils prefer not to head into the season with a dedicated closer, which is surely a role that Hader will prioritize in free agency. He’s been exclusively a ninth-inning (or later) option for the Brewers and Padres in each of the past three seasons and hasn’t worked more than one inning in an appearance since Sept. 2019. Even if the Phillies love Hader — and presumably, just about every team loves him from a pure talent perspective — their preferred usage of him might not align with Hader’s own goals on the market.
Readers — Phillies fans in particular — will want to check out Stark’s column in full, as it contains multiple quotes from Dombrowski and plenty of context on the former Marlins, Tigers and Red Sox front office leader’s tendencies in the offseason.
Seven Players Reject Qualifying Offers
All seven players who received a $20.325MM qualifying offer this year have rejected it, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. The deadline for a decision is today at 3 pm Central but it seems all of Shohei Ohtani, Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Sonny Gray, Josh Hader, Aaron Nola and Blake Snell have already made up their minds.
There wasn’t much drama with any of these decisions, as all seven were considered locks to reject and still collect sizeable free agent contracts. On MLBTR’s list of the Top 50 Free Agents, six of the seven player were predicted to get a nine-figure deal in the coming months. The only exception was Gray, who was limited by his 34 years of age to a prediction of $90MM over four years. The players had one week to gauge the market after receiving those QOs and it doesn’t seem any of them got any sense that accepting the one-year deal was a wise course of action.
There would have been more drama if some borderline candidates had been issued QOs, but it was a fairly conservative group this winter. Last year, 12 players received QOs and Martín Pérez and Joc Pederson eventually accepted. But none of this year’s on-the-cusp players got the offer, with each of Teoscar Hernández, Jorge Soler, J.D. Martinez, Rhys Hoskins, Kenta Maeda and Kevin Kiermaier heading into free agency unencumbered.
Each of the players who received and rejected the QO will now net their former club draft pick compensation in the event they sign elsewhere this winter. The value of that compensation will depend upon whether the club received revenue sharing or paid the competitive balance tax in 2023. The signing club would also be subject to draft pick forfeiture and perhaps a reduction of international bonus pool space, with the penalty also dependant on revenue sharing and CBT status.
Seven Players Receive Qualifying Offers
Seven players in this year’s free agent class have been tagged with the qualifying offer, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (X link). Those players are:
- Shohei Ohtani (Angels)
- Cody Bellinger (Cubs)
- Matt Chapman (Blue Jays)
- Sonny Gray (Twins)
- Josh Hader (Padres)
- Aaron Nola (Phillies)
- Blake Snell (Padres)
Previous reports had already indicated that Teoscar Hernández, Mitch Garver, J.D. Martinez and Rhys Hoskins had not received the QO. The same is true of Jorge Soler and longer-shot candidates like Kenta Maeda and Kevin Kiermaier.
The QO is valued at $20.325MM this offseason. Players have until next Tuesday to decide whether to accept. The seven players who were tagged all seemed virtual locks to both receive and decline it. It’s hard to envision anyone in this group taking a one-year pact.
Indeed, the more surprising aspect of this year’s class were the number of players who were not qualified. Last winter, 14 players were tagged with the QO. Borderline cases Joc Pederson and Martín Pérez wound up accepting. Teams were far more risk-averse this winter, shying away from the potential lofty commitment for all but the market’s top options.
[Related: Which Picks Would Each Team Forfeit By Signing A Qualified Free Agent?]
With QO decisions now made, every free agent is allowed to begin negotiations with other teams. The five-day window of exclusive negotiation with their incumbent club is over. If these players sign elsewhere, their teams would be entitled to compensation.
The Twins, as a revenue sharing recipient, stand to receive the greatest compensation. Assuming Gray beats a $50MM guarantee (a good bet), Minnesota’s compensatory pick would fall after the first round in next year’s draft. The Cubs, as a team that neither receives sharing nor paid the luxury tax, would land a choice that falls between Competitive Balance Round B and the start of the third round for Bellinger’s departure.
San Diego, Toronto and Philadelphia all surpassed the CBT threshold this year. They’d therefore receive the lowest compensation — a draft choice between Rounds 4 and 5. The Angels finished the season right on the border of the $233MM threshold and don’t yet know whether they paid the tax. As a result, they’re still awaiting word on whether they’d land the pick before the third round or after the fourth if Ohtani heads elsewhere.
Michael Wacha Opts Out; Padres Give Qualifying Offers to Blake Snell, Josh Hader
The Padres have extended qualifying offers to free agent lefties Blake Snell and Josh Hader, reports AJ Cassavell of MLB.com. The club also announced a batch of transactions, which includes each of Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo and Nick Martinez electing free agency. Meanwhile, Matt Carpenter exercised his player option to stick with the club. Additionally, the club outrighted right-hander Nick Hernandez and claimed right-hander Jeremiah Estrada off waivers from the Cubs.
The decisions of Lugo and Martinez were previously reported, as was the news on Carpenter. As for Wacha, it was reported on the weekend that the club was declining a two-year option to retain him for 2024-25. Wacha then had the opportunity to trigger a $6.5MM player option for 2024 but has now turned that down.
Wacha signed a four-year deal with the Padres, though one with a convoluted structure. The club would first have to decide on a two-year, $32MM option for the 2024-25 seasons, which they declined. Wacha then had three straight player options which could have paid him $6.5MM in 2024 and then $6MM in the following two seasons. But he has now turned that down, leaving three years and $18.5MM on the table in search of a new deal.
Although he was largely injured and/or ineffective for much of the 2018 to 2021 period, Wacha has now had two straight solid seasons. He posted a 3.32 ERA with the Red Sox in 2022 and a 3.22 mark in his first season in San Diego. Injuries still limited his total volume of work, as he logged 127 1/3 innings for the Sox and 134 1/3 for the Friars, but the combination of workload and effectiveness was nonetheless the best form he’s showed in years.
He’ll now head back to free agency in search of his next deal. The starting pitching market is headlined by guys like Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Aaron Nola and Jordan Montgomery but Wacha will be somewhere in the tie of solid mid-rotation or back-end guys, alongside Lugo, Jack Flaherty and Mike Clevinger.
The fact that Snell and Hader received $20.325MM qualifying offers is no surprise. The two of them are going to be some of the top available free agents this winter, making them a lock to reject them, something recently highlighted by MLBTR. Snell posted a 2.25 earned run average in 2023 and could receive the second Cy Young Award of his career in the coming days. Hader has long been one of the most dominant relievers in the league and had a 1.28 ERA in the season that just ended. Both should be able to receive nine-figure contracts even with a QO attached.
Any impending free agent can receive a qualifying offer as long as they spent the entire season with just one club and haven’t received a QO before. If Hader and/or Snell sign with other clubs after rejecting the QO, the Padres will receive draft pick compensation.
The departures of Wacha, Snell, Lugo and Martinez will leave the Padres fairly short-handed in their rotation. They still have Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove but they are followed on the depth chart by unproven options like Matt Waldron, Jay Groome, Adrián Morejón and Pedro Avila. They will presumably be looking to add to that group but will have to do so while juggling significant financial concerns.
Hernandez, 29 next month, was just added to the roster in September. He made two appearances, allowing four earned runs in three innings, giving him a career ERA of 12.00 in that tiny sample. He threw 61 innings in the minors in 2023, split between Double-A and Triple-A, with a 3.84 ERA, 32.7% strikeout rate and 8.4% walk rate. Any of the 29 other clubs could have added him to their roster today but decided to pass.
Estrada, 25, made 17 appearances for the Cubs over the past two seasons with a 5.51 ERA in that time. His 25.9% strikeout rate is a bit above average but his 18.5% walk rate is concerning. That’s generally been a pattern in the minor leagues as well, with Estrada striking out 31.2% of hitters at Triple-A in 2023 but walking 18.8%. He is still optionable next year, so the Padres will add some pitching depth that comes with roster flexibility, while they will presumably try to help Estrada improve his control going forward.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions: Pitchers
The World Series will be completed in less than a week, which means the offseason is imminent. Almost right away, some key decisions will have to be made. Within five days of the World Series ending, contract options will need to be either exercised or declined and clubs will also have to choose whether or not to issue qualifying offers to eligible players.
A player is eligible for a qualifying offer if they have never received a QO before and spent the entire season with the same club. The value of the QO changes annually, calculated by taking the average salary of the 125 highest-paid players in the league. That means it generally rises as salaries increase over time, with this year’s QO expected to land around $20.5MM. If a player receives and rejects a qualifying offer, he becomes a free agent. If he then signs elsewhere, the signing team is subject to draft pick forfeiture and possibly other penalties, while their previous club receives draft pick compensation.
MLBTR is taking a look at the candidates, with one post focusing on the position players and this one looking at the pitchers.
No-Doubters
- Sonny Gray (Twins)
- Josh Hader (Padres)
- Aaron Nola (Phillies)
- Shohei Ohtani (Angels)
- Blake Snell (Padres)
These five are slam dunks to receive and reject the qualifying offer. Ohtani won’t pitch in 2024 after undergoing elbow surgery, but he is still expected to hit and will perhaps return to the mound in 2025. As one of the best hitters in baseball and the potential for two-way contributions down the road, he’s in line for a record-setting contract. Nola is coming off a down season relative to his own standards but has an excellent track record that will put him in line for a nine-figure deal even with the QO attached. Gray’s total earning power will be capped somewhat by the fact that he turns 34 in a week but his excellent work in 2023 should be able to get him a new deal around $20MM per year over multiple seasons. Snell just wrapped up an excellent campaign, finishing with a 2.25 ERA that could see him net a second career Cy Young award. That sets him up for a huge payday even after rejecting the QO. Hader has been one of the best relievers in the game for a long time and could challenge Edwin Díaz for the biggest contract ever for a reliever.
Special Case
- Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers)
Kershaw has been eligible for a qualifying offer in each of the past two offseasons but didn’t receive one. That wasn’t a reflection of his performance but a sign of respect. In each case, Kershaw went into the winter not knowing if he wanted to come back to the Dodgers, jump to his hometown Rangers or retire. The Dodgers decided both times not to issue him the QO so that he wouldn’t have to make a rushed decision at the beginning of the offseason. Since Kershaw is once again undecided on his future, it seems fair to expect that the Dodgers will decline to extend the QO, though Kershaw would warrant one in a vacuum.
Possible Candidates
- Seth Lugo (Padres)
Lugo spent most of his career working out of the bullpen but hit free agency a year ago and drew plenty of interest as a starter. The Padres eventually brought him aboard via a two-year deal with a $15MM guarantee and incentives, as well as an opt-out after the first season.
The righty made the most of the opportunity, making 26 starts and logging 146 1/3 innings with a 3.57 earned run average. He stuck out 23.2% of batters faced, walked 6% and kept the ball on the ground at a 45.2% clip. There were some concerns about Lugo’s ability to hold up over a full season, both since he hadn’t had that kind of workload before and because he had a slight tear of his UCL in 2017 that wasn’t surgically addressed. But in 2023, Lugo made just one trip to the injured list, missing just over a month due to a calf strain.
Now that Lugo has proof of concept as a starter, he should have greater earning power than he did a year ago, even though he’s about to turn 34. Turning down the one year and $7.5MM left on his deal should be an easy call, but then the Padres will have a more difficult choice. It would be hard for Lugo to turn down a 2024 salary more than twice what he made in the prior season, so there would be a decent chance he accepts a QO. With the club reportedly looking to cut payroll, they may not want to take that chance.
- Kenta Maeda (Twins)
Maeda has had his ups and downs in recent years but is heading into free agency with some momentum. He posted a 2.70 ERA in 2020 but then that figure jumped to 4.66 in 2021 before he underwent internal brace surgery on his elbow. He missed all of 2022 and then struggled early in 2023. In his fourth start of the season, he was shelled by the Yankees, allowing 10 earned runs in three innings. He was then placed on the injured list with a triceps strain while sporting an ERA of 9.00 for the year.
But after getting healthy, his results were much better. He was activated from the IL in late June and made 17 more appearances the rest of the way. He tossed 88 1/3 innings with a 3.36 ERA, 29% strikeout rate and 7% walk rate. Though his ERA for the whole year finished at 4.23, it seems fair to conclude that the early-season injury inflated that number.
The righty has never had a massive salary locked in. When he initially came over from Japan, the Dodgers signed him to an incentive-laden deal that guaranteed him $25MM over eight years. That came in the form of a $1MM signing bonus, $3MM salary each year and $6.5MM in incentives available each season based on games started and innings pitched. If he suddenly had a $20.5MM guarantee in front of him for his age-36 season, that would likely be very tempting.
The Twins aren’t one of the top payroll teams under normal circumstances and may need to cut back spending due to uncertainty around their TV revenues. They may not want to blow a huge chunk of their budget right at the beginning of the offseason, especially when their rotation is already in decent shape with Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack and Louie Varland currently pencilled in.
- Michael Wacha (Padres)
Wacha had some strong seasons earlier in his career with the Cardinals, but injuries became an issue more recently. He settled for a $3MM guarantee while joining the Mets for 2020, then was limited to 34 mediocre innings in the shortened season. The Rays took a shot on him in 2021 with another $3MM guarantee and he stayed healthy enough to log 124 2/3 innings with a 5.05 ERA. That relatively healthy campaign was enough to get him a one-year, $7MM deal with the Red Sox for 2022, and he then tossed 127 1/3 innings for that club with a 3.23 ERA.
He lingered on the open market for a while last offseason but eventually landed a four-year, $26MM guarantee from the Padres with a layered option structure. After the 2023 World Series, the Friars will have to decide whether or not to trigger two $16MM club options for 2024 and 2025, effectively a two-year, $32MM deal. If they decline, Wacha has a $6.5MM player option for 2024 and then $6MM player options for 2025 and 2026.
The righty is coming off another decent season. Though his shoulder landed him on the IL this year, just as it had in 2022 and 2020, he was able to make 24 starts and throw 134 1/3 innings with a 3.22 ERA. His 22.4% strikeout rate and 7.8% walk rate were both close to league average, though he may have benefitted from a .266 batting average on balls in play and 79.7% strand rate. His 3.89 FIP and 4.43 SIERA suggest his ERA might not be wholly sustainable.
As mentioned in the Lugo section above, the Padres are facing a budget crunch. Though they are likely pleased with Wacha’s results in 2023, would they want to give him a pay raise by triggering that option? If they pass on that, Wacha would likely turn down his player option and return to free agency. He would be eligible for a qualifying offer at that point, which would be a higher salary than the club option but on a shorter commitment. The Padres effectively have to decide between 1/20 or 2/32 or simply letting Wacha walk.
Long Shot
- Frankie Montas (Yankees)
Some fans of the Yankees might shudder at the thought of the club bringing back Montas at a higher salary, but it’s not a completely crazy idea. Though he was hurt or ineffective from the moment he donned pinstripes, he’s not too far removed from some strong results. From 2019 to 2021, he posted an ERA of 3.51 over 336 innings pitched. In that time, he struck out 26.3% of batters faced, issued walks at a 7.3% clip and kept 43.7% of batted balls on the ground. Among pitchers with at least 300 innings pitched in that time, that ERA ranked him 21st in the majors. Even in 2022, prior to the infamous trade, he was still quite good. He registered an ERA of 3.18 in his 19 starts for the A’s that year.
Players returning from injury absences can often still find themselves big salaries on short-term deals. Noah Syndergaard got one year and $21MM from the Angels after missing most of 2020 and 2021 rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. Corey Kluber got $11MM from the Yankees even though he was 35 years old and made just eight appearances over the two previous campaigns. James Paxton got $10MM from the Red Sox under similar circumstances.
The Yankees have a couple of long-term contracts in their rotation with Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón. The latter hasn’t worked out well so far, with Rodón injured for much of 2023. The club needs rotation reinforcements with Michael King, Clarke Schmidt and Nestor Cortes pencilled into the back end, each of whom comes with some question marks. They could add another marquee free agent, but maybe they’d prefer to take a short-term flier on a player they have obviously liked for a long time, giving up four prospects to acquire him and Lou Trivino just over a year ago. They then agreed to a $7.5MM arbitration salary for 2023 even as questions about his shoulder lingered.
Though there’s an argument for the possibility, it ultimately seems like the odds are against this happening. The Montas trade has gone so poorly, both from an on-field perspective and a PR one, that it’s hard to envision the club doubling down. If Montas doesn’t receive the QO, he will likely be fielding one-year offers slightly below the $20.5MM salary range.
Ineligible
- Jack Flaherty (Orioles)
- Lucas Giolito (Guardians)
- Shota Imanaga (Yokohama DeNA BayStars, NPB)
- Jordan Montgomery (Rangers)
- Eduardo Rodriguez (Tigers)
- Marcus Stroman (Cubs)
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto (Orix Buffaloes, NPB)
As mentioned up top, players are only eligible to receive the qualifying offer if they haven’t received one previously and also spent the entire year with just one MLB club. Rodriguez and Stroman, who can each opt out of their respective contracts, have each been issued a QO earlier in their career. Flaherty, Giolito and Montgomery were all traded midseason, which makes them ineligible as well. Players coming from other leagues aren’t eligible either, so Yamamoto and Imanaga won’t have the QO in play. For each of these pitchers, the lack of a QO helps their earning power since clubs won’t have to forfeit any draft picks to sign them.