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Free Agent Chatter: Nats/Harper, Miller, Kelly, Keuchel, Halos

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So, are the Nationals really out of the picture for Bryce Harper, as owner Mark Lerner strongly suggested recently? Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post writes that he’s not yet sold that the incumbent Nats have completely bid adieu to their franchise-defining star. It’s an interesting read for fans to contemplate as Harper’s still-uncertain market continues to evolve … particularly now that president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo nudged the door back open to a return in an interview today on MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM (Twitter link).

Here are the latest free agent notes emanating from the Winter Meetings:

  • Free agent lefty Andrew Miller is among the relievers drawing wide interest, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link). Nine teams, in fact, are knocking down the doors of Miller’s reps. It’s hardly surprising to hear that the veteran has interested about a third of the league. After all, there are indications he may be returning to full health, and he’s among the game’s best relievers when he’s at full speed.
  • Right-handed reliever Joe Kelly is also among those hurlers who is getting plenty of calls, as Rob Bradford of WEEI.com writes. Kelly’s physical tools — especially, a blistering heater — have never been in doubt, and he showed some promise of turning them into sustainable productivity late in 2018 with some notable pitch usage tweaks and a strong postseason run. Entering the winter, MLBTR predicted that Kelly would match Miller with a three-year, $27MM deal.
  • It’s still difficult to get a sense of the precise teams to watch on most relievers. The same is largely true, it seems, of lefty starter Dallas Keuchel. He’s the most accomplished hurler on the market, but there’s also clearly some cause for trepidation as to how he’ll age. There are also conflicting signals now as to his top suitors. Jon Heyman of Fancred (Twitter links) recently said that Keuchel topped the Braves’ “wish list,” with the Reds and Phillies the other two “primary teams” involved in his market. But MLB.com’s Mark Bowman strongly contests that characterization, tweeting that the Atlanta organization has not even “had any discussions regarding Keuchel” to this point. And Heyman now tweets that the Atlanta organization is “not currently engaged” with Keuchel. The bottom line seems to be that, even if the Braves would like to add Keuchl (or another particular hurler), they are not interested in chasing the market on any specific starter.
  • To this point, it has been hard to gauge the Angels’ stance on the market this winter. While the organization no doubt hopes to add pieces in a bid to build a winner around Mike Trout, financial restraints, rotation questions, and a challenging division pose barriers. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes (subscription link) that the Halos were in on both Patrick Corbin and Nathan Eovaldi before they signed elsewhere, perhaps indicating that the club will knock on some other notable doors over the coming weeks. MLBTR’s in-depth recent assessment of the Angels’ payroll situation reveals that there could be some real money to work with, though precisely how much and how it’ll be deployed remains to be seen.

Patrick Corbin Signing “Imminent”

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2:40pm: Corbin is evidently nearing agreement, as Morosi tweets that a signing is “imminent.” He’s said to be lining up a six-year deal, though it’s not yet clear with what team.

With the Yankees only putting five years on the table, it seems they aren’t going to get the lefty, Morosi adds on Twitter.

10:55am: There’s still no marked movement on the bidding for free agent lefty Patrick Corbin, but we’re continuing to see indications that the action is building to a crescendo. With interest spiking in the top open-market hurler, Bob Nightengale of USA Today cites multiple league sources for the proposition that Corbin is expected to meet or exceed the contract value that Yu Darvish achieved last winter (Twitter link).

That level of payday is just what MLBTR predicted in ranking Corbin as the third-best free agent on this year’s market. At the time, that seemed a rather aggressive estimation of his value. More recently, though, some have wondered whether Corbin might not drive well past the Darvish deal (six years, $126MM).

How high the bidding will go remains to be seen. Indeed, it’s not yet fully clear whether Corbin will actually top Darvish, even if he can. Nightengale suggests it’s possible that Corbin might be asked to “take a discount” to end up with the Yankees, who could be looking to get the life-long fan of the Bronx Bombers to sign for less.

The precise strategy of the Yankees isn’t entirely clear; certainly, the organization could boost its bid if Corbin demands it and there’s a bigger offer on the table. Regardless, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand notes on Twitter that the Yankees are still locked in on Corbin, though he reminds that they’ve also engaged in secondary targets. That more or less mirrors what GM Brian Cashman stated on the record last night.

If Corbin currently sits atop the New York priority list, it seems the same is true of the Phillies, as Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer tweets. Indeed, some “rivals speculate” that the Phillies are the favorite, Andy Martino of SNY.tv tweets, though perhaps that can be said of most any of the team’s free agent targets this winter given its ample spending capacity and clear imperative to win. As Nightengale adds on Twitter, the Phillies seem to have made it clear to Corbin that they’ll top the rest of the market to get him.

Meanwhile, Nationals president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo offered plenty of his own indications of strong interest in Corbin, as MLB.com’s Jamal Collier was among those to report. “He’s a guy that obviously we’re interested in and would fit nicely on this team,” says Rizzo, who made clear that the club still has a somewhat traditional view of the value of rotation assets. “Starting pitching is king,” Rizzo says, leaving little doubt that the Nats are prime players for Corbin and other top arms.

Pitching Notes: Eovaldi, Corbin, Kluber/Bauer, Soria, Holland

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If there was any doubt as to the Red Sox’ desire to bring back Nathan Eovaldi after his strong run with the club late in 2018, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski put it to rest in comments today. As Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com was among those to report, Dombrowski confirmed that the organization has been engaged with Eovaldi’s camp this winter — though he also cautioned that “there’s a lot of interest” in the righty leaguewide. How far the Sox will go in the bidding remains to be seen, but Dombrowski said that Eovaldi is “a guy that we love.” With only a few major needs to be accounted for, the defending World Series champs seem a prime potential landing spot — as we predicted at the outset of the offseason.

  • The Padres also have interest in Eovaldi, per Dennis Lin of The Athletic (via Twitter). It has long been rumored that the San Diego club would hunt for starting pitching this winter, but the injury-prone, high-octane 28-year-old would make for a particularly interesting target. After all, numerous big spenders (see above) are in the fray. For the budget-conscious Friars, beating the market for Eovaldi would surely mean taking on a rather significant risk. Perhaps that’s part of a more general strategy for a team that has plenty of interesting arms filtering through the system and is looking to move toward contention now while adding players who’ll contribute for some time to come. The San Diego franchise has also kicked around trade concepts with the Mets on Noah Syndergaard and, as Lin notes, already agreed to a hefty two-year pact with Garrett Richards in hopes he’ll recover and turn in a strong 2020 campaign.
  • Even as Eovaldi draws plenty of interest it seems the early market will be driven by Patrick Corbin, the excellent lefty who just completed a tour of several big-spending east-coast clubs. The Nationals, Yankees, and Phillies still profile as the likeliest landing spots, Jon Heyman of Fancred tweets, though he notes that other teams are still in the mix. A decision, in any event, still seems to come sooner than later. Yankees GM Brian Cashman made clear that his organization is a serious pursuer of a hurler with deep ties to the region in an interview this evening with Jack Curry of the YES Network (write-up via MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch). “We’re doing everything in our power to put ourselves in position to be a legitimate consideration,” says Cashman, who calls Corbin “a special talent.” This sort of public endorsement obviously won’t decide the matter, but it surely indicates that the Yankees are engaged in a full press.
  • The trade side of the starting pitching market remains somewhat more difficult to assess at this stage, but the Indians still seem to be driving the bus (at least unless and until we learn more about the seriousness of the Mets’ intentions regarding Syndergaard). MLB.com’s Jon Morosi suggests on Twitter that the Cleveland org will likely wait until there has been some movement at the upper levels of free agency before moving Corey Kluber or Trevor Bauer, though it’s not entirely clear why that’d necessarily be the case. At the moment, Morosi adds in a subsequent tweet, the Braves are not actively engaged on either hurler. Of course, it’d likely be unwise to rule out the Atlanta club at this stage, given its assortment of intriguing young talent and desire to add a frontline rotation piece.
  • Veteran reliever Joakim Soria is drawing interest from at least a handful of clubs at this early stage of the free agent market, MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez tweets. The Diamondbacks, Angels, Yankees, Braves, and Reds are all involved to some extent, per the report, representing an interesting slate of organizations. While the New York and Atlanta clubs are clearly in position to add veteran talent in a bid to repeat their postseason appearances from 2018, the other teams listed by Chavez are in somewhat less-certain positions in respect to the open market. The Los Angeles and Cincinnati ballclubs are surely interested in spending to contend, but will need to choose their targets wisely. Meanwhile, Arizona is exploring sell-side deals while also trying to achieve value with new investments. That Soria appeals to all of these teams seems to suggest that the league believes the 34-year-old has plenty left in the tank. And for good reason: he just wrapped up a campaign in which he spun 60 2/3 innings of 3.12 ERA ball, with a healthy 11.1 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 along with a personal-best 14.4% swinging-strike rate.
  • Free agent southpaw Derek Holland is drawing multi-year interest, per Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle (via Twitter). It’s all but impossible to gauge his true market at this stage, with some bigger dominoes still to fall, but it stands to reason that he’d make some degree of sense for a fairly broad group of clubs. At the outset of this year’s hot stove market, we guessed Holland could warrant a two-year, $15MM commitment. Though there are obvious limits to his value at 32 years of age, Holland did finally break out of a multi-year malaise with a strong 2018 campaign in which he contributed 171 1/3 frames and worked to a 3.57 ERA — his first full season of sub-4.00 ball since way back in 2013.

Pitching Market Notes: Eovaldi, Yankees, Happ, Kikuchi, Gray, MadBum

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After a busy day of arbitration decisions, it’s worth taking stock of some recent developments in the broader market. We’ve already touched upon some major storylines today, with looks at Patrick Corbin (link), Zack Greinke (link), and Carlos Carrasco (link). Here’s more …

  • Though Corbin seems to be captivating the market at present, chatter on Nathan Eovaldi is also “heating up,” per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (Twitter link). Unsurprisingly, the Red Sox and Astros are presently seen as prime contenders to land him. With the American League shaping up to be another clash of titans, those organizations are positioned t stake some dough on Eovaldi’s upside.
  • The Yankees are a major player on Corbin, of course, but also some other arms — and not just as a backup plan. Indeed, per Jayson Stark of The Athletic (via Twitter), the club could even add another significant starter if it does get Corbin. That’d be quite a surprise, given that the team would appear to have a clear starting five if Corbin signs, but perhaps there’s a way to pull something off that would still make sense and leave the club with immense rotation depth.
  • Meanwhile, southpaw J.A. Happ is said to have “ten teams chasing” him at this point, per Jon Heyman of Fancred. One of those is the Brewers, who’d presumably like to bolster their rotation but also don’t appear to have an immense amount of money to use. Of course, giving up on Jonathan Schoop clears a big piece of payroll, so long as the club finds a way to address its infield needs without using all the savings.
  • There’s also a “strong” market for Japanese hurler Yusei Kikuchi, Heyman tweets. Unsurprisingly, west coast clubs — the Dodgers, Padres, Giants, and Mariners, at least — appear to be lining up for the 27-year-old. It’s still hard to know what kind of salary and duration he’ll be able to command. But as this particular list of clubs shows, Kikuchi’s unusual youth will play a major role in his market by opening the door to quite a few organizations to pursue him.
  • Elsewhere, the Yankees are still trying to offload an asset in Sonny Gray. Per Ken Davidoff of the New York Post, with GM Brian Cashman saying he has discussed a multitude of different scenarios involving Gray, including some larger deals. That suggests that the Yanks are comfortable hanging onto Gray for a while as they sort through the possibilities, rather than putting him on the market and taking the best deal then available.
  • Gray is as good as gone from the team’s perspective, but that’s clearly not the same situation for Giants ace Madison Bumgarner. The burly southpaw is reportedly on the table. But that doesn’t mean he’ll be priced at a level that will lead to a deal. Indeed one organizational source tells Heyman (Twitter link) they “don’t see [Bumgarner] going anywhere this winter.” Certainly, the Giants have little need to dump Bumgarner if they aren’t getting something worthwhile in return. Teams with interest, though, will remain wary of a big price for one season of a player with recent shoulder woes and some performance questions.

Latest On Patrick Corbin’s Market

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The teams that have already met with free-agent lefty Patrick Corbin have been given the impression that he’s hoping to be the first major free agent to sign a long-term contract this winter, tweets Jayson Stark of The Athletic. Corbin met with the Phillies, Nationals and Yankees this week, though he’s surely been in contact with other clubs as the consensus top starting pitcher available in free agency. Stark suggests that a Corbin signing “will almost certainly” happen before the Winter Meetings, which are already only nine days away from beginning.

The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal wrote yesterday that early interest in Corbin is robust, with some teams believing he’ll receive offers of six years in length. (MLBTR projected Corbin to sign a six-year, $129MM contract.) Notably, Rosenthal cites one source in suggesting that Nationals GM Mike Rizzo is “seriously focused” on acquiring Corbin, though Washington’s history of baking heavy deferrals into long-term contracts isn’t always well received by free agents.

More anecdotally, Rosenthal tweets that at Corbin’s offseason wedding, his younger brother donned a Yankees hat during his best man speech and joked that he hoped the groom would soon be moving closer to home. (Corbin, a childhood Yankees fan, is from Syracuse.) The New York Post’s Ken Davidoff spoke to Yankees general manger Brian Cashman about the team’s meeting with Corbin, though Cashman unsurprisingly declined to reveal much, simply stating that Corbin “left here knowing a lot more about us than when he arrived.” The GM did, however, imply that the organization won’t necessarily wait for Corbin to make a decision before moving on. Based on Stark’s report, however, it doesn’t sound as if Corbin will be making interest parties wait all that long.

The 29-year-old Corbin is the second-youngest and very arguably the best starting pitcher on the free-agent market. He turned in his second career 200-inning season in 2018, his second straight season with 33 appearances and ranked seventh among qualified starting pitchers in strikeout percentage as well as second in swinging-strike rate.

If there’s a knock on Corbin, it’s that he doesn’t have a lengthy track record of performing at this level — largely because he underwent Tommy John surgery midway through his Diamondbacks tenure, missed one and a half seasons, and struggled in his first full year back. He’s been a quality hurler over the past two seasons, though, and D-backs pitching coach Mike Butcher tells Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer that he believes Corbin can maintain his 2018 transformation for years to come. Butcher and Lauber discuss the changes to Corbin’s arsenal — including the refinement of his slider and altered usage of his curveball — that brought about Corbin’s breakout season in 2018 in an interview that’s well worth a full read-through for fans hoping their preferred club will land the lefty.

Nationals, Yankees, Phillies Meet With Patrick Corbin

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4:10pm: ESPN’s Buster Olney tweets that Corbin has also met with the Nationals in Washington, D.C. this week. It’s not clear if Corbin has met with any other clubs on what looks to be a tour of some east-coast contenders with interest in the lefty. Like the Phillies and Yankees, the Nats have some obvious needs in the rotation. At present, the Nats have Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Tanner Roark are the top three options on the team’s depth chart, with young hurlers Joe Ross (returning from Tommy John surgery) and Erick Fedde among the options for the final two rotation spots.

Nov. 28, 3:25pm: Following yesterday’s meeting with the Phillies, Corbin is headed to New York to meet with Yankees officials, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter). There’s no meeting set between Corbin and the Mets while his camp is in New York, Sherman adds.

A meeting between the Yankees and Corbin was all but a foregone conclusion. The Yanks are known to be eyeing high-end rotation help even after acquiring James Paxton, and Corbin stands out as the best starter on the market. Beyond that, the two sides have been linked for the better part of a year; reports indicated that the Yankees had interest in acquiring Corbin last year and last offseason, and he’s gone on record to indicate that he grew up a Yankee fan. None of that makes Corbin to the Bronx a fait accompli, but it’d certainly be a surprise if the Yanks weren’t firmly in the mix for Corbin until the very end.

Nov. 27: The Phillies, expected to be one of the most active teams in free agency, are meeting with left-hander Patrick Corbin at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia today, tweets Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia. Corbin is “high on [the] Phillies’ wish list,” Salisbury adds, though certainly one in-person visit doesn’t indicate that there’s anything close to fruition between the two sides.

Corbin, 29, is the consensus top starter on the free-agent market after racking up 200 innings of 3.15 ERA ball with 11.1 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 0.68 HR/9 and a 48.5 percent ground-ball rate. No qualified starter in baseball topped Corbin in terms of opponents’ chase rate (38 percent), and only Max Scherzer bested Corbin’s 15.6 percent swinging-strike rate. Fielding-independent metrics actually liked Corbin more than his ERA (2.47 FIP, 2.61 xFIP, 2.91 SIERA).

[Related: Philadelphia Phillies Offseason Outlook | Philadelphia Phillies depth chart]

As MLBTR contributor Rob Huff recently explored, the Phillies have enormous payroll flexibility this offseason — as much as nearly any team in the Majors — which should allow them to pursue multiple top-tier free agents. Majority owner John Middleton recently told USA Today’s Bob Nightengale that he has every expectation of spending aggressively this winter, playfully adding that the Phillies might “even be even a little stupid about it.”

Corbin would improve any pitching staff in baseball, and he’d give the Phillies a dynamic one-two punch atop the rotation in conjunction with emerging ace Aaron Nola. Teamed with Jake Arrieta and some combination of Nick Pivetta, Vince Velasquez, Zach Eflin, Jerad Eickhoff and Enyel De Los Santos, that top three would give the Phillies a formidable and, as importantly, deep stock of arms from which to draw as the team looks to redeem itself in the wake of a catastrophic late-season collapse. Of course, adding an arm of Corbin’s caliber would also make it a bit easier to stomach trading from that reservoir of younger arms in order to address other areas on the roster. And while MLBTR projected Corbin to top $20MM annually over a six-year term, the Phillies’ wide-open payroll slate would still leave them ample room to add him and one of the top two free agents on the market; the Phils have been prominently linked to both Bryce Harper and Manny Machado in the early stages of free agency.

MLBTR Readers Predict Teams For Top 10 Free Agents

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MLBTR’s free agent prediction contest closed last night.  6,845 people entered the contest.  Here’s where our readers think each of the top 10 free agents is going.

1.  Bryce Harper – Phillies (34.0%), Dodgers (13.1%), Nationals (10.8%), Giants (9.8%), Cubs (8.5%), Cardinals (7.9%), White Sox (6.0%), Yankees (4.2%), Braves (1.4%), Astros (1.4%), Angels (1.1%)

2.  Manny Machado – Phillies (45.8%), Yankees (36.5%), White Sox (5.0%), Dodgers (4.0%), Cardinals (1.9%), Mets (1.5%), Cubs (1.3%)

3.  Patrick Corbin – Yankees (74.8%), Phillies (3.1%), Astros (3.0%), Brewers (2.5%), Angels (2.4%), Braves (2.1%), Cardinals (1.4%), Nationals (1.4%), Diamondbacks (1.4%), Cubs (1.2%), Giants (1.1%)

4.  Dallas Keuchel – Astros (16.4%), Angels (13.8%), Nationals (13.5%), Brewers (9.9%), Yankees (8.2%), Phillies (6.2%), Braves (6.0%), Cardinals (4.1%), Reds (3.1%), Dodgers (2.1%), Cubs (2.1%), Giants (2.0%), Padres (1.9%), Rangers (1.5%), White Sox (1.4%), Twins (1.2%), Mariners (1.2%), Athletics (1.2%), Red Sox (1.1%)

5.  Craig Kimbrel – Braves (28.8%), Red Sox (25.4%), Cardinals (18.1%), Phillies (8.4%), Cubs (3.6%), Nationals (3.1%), Mets (2.6%), Astros (2.2%), Dodgers (1.5%), Angels (1.2%), Indians (1.2%)

6.  Yasmani Grandal – Nationals (21.6%), Astros (15.3%), Dodgers (14.4%), Mets (11.3%), Braves (7.8%), Angels (3.4%), Brewers (3.0%), Phillies (2.7%), Mariners (2.6%), Rockies (2.5%), Red Sox (2.5%), Athletics (1.5%), Rangers (1.4%), Diamondbacks (1.3%)

7.  Nathan Eovaldi – Red Sox (51.5%), Brewers (5.6%), Astros (4.3%), Yankees (4.0%), Angels (3.6%), Padres (3.2%), Phillies (3.0%), Braves (2.8%), Dodgers (2.4%), Reds (2.3%), Nationals (2.1%), Cubs (2.0%), Giants (2.0%), Cardinals (1.6%), White Sox (1.4%), Rangers (1.3%), Twins (1.1%), Athletics (1.0%)

8.  A.J. Pollock – Giants (22.9%), Indians (9.2%), Diamondbacks (9.0%), White Sox (6.7%), Phillies (6.2%), Braves (5.7%), Mets (5.4%), Cardinals (5.0%), Nationals (4.6%), Cubs (3.4%), Rockies (3.4%), Mariners (2.5%), Athletics (1.7%), Dodgers (1.6%), Angels (1.6%), Astros (1.5%), Padres (1.5%), Blue Jays (1.4%), Rangers (1.3%), Brewers (1.1%)

9.  J.A. Happ – Yankees (30.9%), Blue Jays (9.2%), Angels (8.2%), Brewers (6.5%), Phillies (4.7%), Astros (4.4%), Nationals (3.7%), Twins (3.1%), Athletics (3.1%), Braves (2.6%), Cubs (2.5%), White Sox (2.4%), Cardinals (2.3%), Reds (2.2%), Giants (1.7%), Mariners (1.7%), Dodgers (1.5%), Padres (1.2%), Diamondbacks (1.2%), Red Sox (1.1%), Rangers (1.0%), Indians (1.0%)

10.  Michael Brantley – Braves (30.8%), Indians (10.1%), Giants (9.5%), Phillies (4.9%), Cardinals (4.5%), White Sox (4.2%), Nationals (3.6%), Cubs (3.0%), Mariners (2.9%), Astros (2.8%), Diamondbacks (2.6%), Rockies (2.4%), Athletics (2.3%), Mets (2.3%), Blue Jays (1.9%), Angels (1.4%), Twins (1.4%), Rangers (1.2%), Padres (1.1%), Rays (1.0%), Dodgers (1.0%)

Poll: Which Team Will Sign Patrick Corbin?

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Free agent lefty Patrick Corbin is arguably the top hurler on the market this offseason.  The former Diamondback timed his ascension to dominance perfectly last season, posting career bests in strikeout rate (11.07 K/9), HR/9 (0.68), FIP (2.47), xFIP (2.61), ERA (3.15), fWAR (6.3) and games started (33) in a pivotal walk year for the 29-year-old.  If not for the staggering wire-to-wire performance of Mets righty Jacob deGrom, Corbin’s defense-independent pitching marks would have paced the Senior Circuit, besting even the perennial virtuosity of two-time defending Cy Young Award winner Max Scherzer of the Nationals.  In a free agent class replete with everything but top-end arms, Corbin has positioned himself squarely at the top: as our own Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Jeff Todd see it, the hurler is the premier available starting pitcher, set perhaps to command a deal in excess of $125MM over multiple seasons.

Signs of caution, however, do mark the landscape. Though Corbin has fewer innings under his belt than most starters his age, the limited output came with a price – a Tommy John surgery following a breakout 2013 campaign knocked out all of the following season, plus half of the next, and a hopeful rebound in 2016 was derailed by shaky command and a dangerous propensity for giving up the gopher ball. Corbin also relies heavily on a wipeout slider that ranked as the league’s very best in 2018: after a lessened reliance on the pitch in the two-year aftermath of the surgery, the lefty has again ramped up its use, throwing it a shocking 41.3% of the time in 2018, the second-highest among all starting pitchers in baseball last year.  The pitch, of course, is renowned for the stress it places on the thrower’s elbow, and has long been circumstantially linked to the UCL tear that precipitates Tommy John.

There’s also the body of work.  Never a top prospect, Corbin seemed, after nearly 750 IP at the major-league level following the 2017 season, to have settled comfortably in a place quite near his long-ago projected role: Baseball America reports in 2010 and 2011 pegged him as a “number 3 or four” and “number four” starter, respectively, and the lefty’s minor league performance did little to discredit that view.  Acquired from the Angels in a 2010 deadline deal that sent Dan Haren to Los Angeles, Corbin was a secondary piece in the return headlined by former top prospect Tyler Skaggs.  The slider-slinging lefty did offer a quality 2013 season, posting an ERA/FIP/xFIP all between 3.40 and 3.50, but the performance coincided with a near all-time offensive low across the league – his park- and league-adjusted xFIP that year, after all, was just eight percent better than league average.

There were more stumbles to follow.  A partial-year renaissance in 2015 was followed, in the middle of the next season, by a demotion to the bullpen; despite a career-high 53% ground-ball rate, Corbin’s walk rate ballooned to near four per nine, and he was too often bit by the long ball.  Heavier slider use ushered in another rebound in 2017, but shades of last year’s dominance were still scarce: at the conclusion of that season, Patrick Corbin had, in 745 innings pitched, vindicated the scouts’ reports, offering up a perfectly harmonious 97 ERA-/97 FIP-, three percent better than the league average.  ZiPS projected to hurler to be slightly better in the 2018 season, pegging him for a 94 ERA-/95 FIP- in the newly-humidor-scarred Chase Field.

So what, then, will teams make of the innings-eater-turned-ace in the new-look pitching environment?  Will heavier bullpen dependence suppress the value of starting pitchers across the board?  Will teams hold his mostly-middling ways against him, dismissing the recent ascension as outlier?  Will the slider-heavy profile give them pause?  Or will they double down, certain they’re acquiring a staff-leading ace far into the next decade?  And, most notably for this piece, which teams seem mostly likely to fall into the category of the latter?

The Yankees, unsurprisingly, may be his top suitor.  Corbin, who was raised outside Syracuse, NY, grew up a Yankee fan: “It would definitely be great to play there,’’ he told Bob Nightengale of the USA Today earlier this year. “I grew up a Yankee fan. My whole family are Yankee fans. My mom, my dad, my grandpa, everybody. Really, every generation of my family has been Yankee fans. Living up in Syracuse, everybody’s a Yankee fan. Not too many Mets fans up there.’’  The Bombers, who recently re-signed C.C. Sabathia for one final year, still face questions in the rotation’s back half, where a disappointing 2018 performance from Sonny Gray has left him squarely on the the block.  The fit between the storied franchise and New York native seems an ideal one, especially in a park that rewards left-handed power like few others – Corbin, for his career, has been death on lefties, striking out nearly 31% of them and allowing just 20 total HR, good for a minuscule 2.54 xFIP against.  The Yanks, who last year failed to eclipse the luxury-tax threshold for the first time in 15 seasons, seem primed and ready to make their periodic splash, but whether or not a free agent hurler is foremost in their efforts remains to be seen.

Next in line may be the Phillies, whose team ownership has made no attempt to hide its fervent pursuit of the market’s top assets, with principal owner John Middleton noting that the club could be “a little bit stupid about it.”  After a systematic payroll reduction over the last few seasons, the Phillies finally re-announced their presence as a major offseason player with last year’s signing of Jake Arrieta, and again seem ready to pounce in the more bountiful class of 2018-’19.  The rotation, which in ’18 had one of the league’s widest ERA-FIP gaps, likely due in large measure to the shoddy left-side defense of Rhys Hoskins, Maikel Franco, and Scott Kingery, is chock-full of controllable arms with significant upside, and posted sterling peripherals as a whole last season.  Still, uncertainty hovers around the burgeoning careers of righties Nick Pivetta and Vince Velasquez, each of whom turned a second straight season of poor performance on the back of encouraging secondary stats, and Zach Eflin, who was downright dreadful in limited big-league action before 2018.  With the club’s top pitching prospects at least a couple years away, and money to burn across the diamond, the Fightins may elect to prop up an area of strength as they enter a pivotal 2019.

The Braves could also be a major player here, what with the windfall they’ve received from increased attendance at their new Smyrna, GA, home, and question marks all across the rotation.  After Mike Foltynewicz, the organization has little on which it can count next season – Kevin Gausman and Julio Teheran sprinted to the big leagues oozing promise, but have been mostly uneven since, and heralded rookie Sean Newcomb again battled the command issues that had so often plagued him in the minors.  Touki Toussaint was a nice surprise, but he walked nearly seven men per nine in a brief MLB stint last season, and Calgary-born Mike Soroka spent much of the season’s second half on the shelf.  The farm is brimming with starting pitching talent of all types, but none have asserted themselves as MLB-ready for 2019.  There’s been little indication from GM Alex Anthopolous that the club is looking to make a major splash, but the up-and-coming Braves seem as good a fit as any for the 29-year-old Corbin, should the team decide to move in that direction.

The Astros, perhaps set to lose Dallas Keuchel and Charlie Morton to free agency, could also be a factor.  Both Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole are free-agents-to-be following the 2019 season, Lance McCullers Jr. just underwent Tommy John surgery and will miss the ’19 season, and the club’s glut of upper-level starting pitching depth has dwindled in recent years.  With GM Jeff Luhnow announcing that the club will move Collin McHugh back to the rotation, two spots are still in flux.  Luhnow seemed cryptic when asked about a possible increase in the 2019 payroll, but with so many rotation question marks in the years to come, a top-level arm would seem an ideal fit for the 2017 champions.

The Nationals, who’ve seen a once-historic rotation dwindle to just Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, and possible non-tender candidate Tanner Roark, plus a series of who-knows and could-bes, also have the money and the need, should the club decide to pivot away from Bryce Harper.  Still, with a whopping $245MM combined owed to Scherzer and Strasburg over the life of their deals, signing another high-priced starter would seem exceedingly unlikely.

Other teams, like the Dodgers, Twins, Giants, and Angels could be in play, to a lesser degree.  Los Angeles has the money, of course, but has been loath to shell it out to a high-priced free agent from outside the organization under GM Andrew Friedman’s watch, and the club is already stocked with quality left-handed arms.  The Twins have stripped their payroll to nearly nothing in recent years, but still have a bevy of intriguing rotation options and numerous holes on the offensive side.  The Giants, of course, had the league’s highest payroll last season, but still owe over $120MM combined to Jeff Samardzija and Johnny Cueto, and don’t figure to be players in the offseason starting pitching market.  The Angels, devoid now of anything resembling a top-end arm after Shohei Ohtani’s Tommy John surgery, could be a background lurker, though the club is still saddled with Albert Pujols’ albatross for another three seasons and may find other needs more urgent.

Which team will be the one to pull the trigger?

Pitching Market Rumors: Gray, Corbin, Anibal, Keuchel, Parker

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The Yankees have received multiple offers for right-hander Sonny Gray and are currently in the process of evaluating them, per SNY’s Andy Martino. GM Brian Cashman has been unusually candid about his plan to move the obvious change-of-scenery candidate, and interest in buying low on the talented righty has reportedly been robust. Gray, projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $9.4MM in his final season of arbitration eligibility next year, pitched quite well away from Yankee Stadium and maintained his velocity and ability to miss bats. But he was frequently shelled in the Bronx and ultimately lost his rotation spot late in the season. The Reds are among the teams who’ve been prominently connected to Gray recently, though it stands to reason that upwards of half the league could have interest given his track record.

More rumblings on the market for pitching and bullpen help…

  • The Phillies have been primarily connected to Bryce Harper and Manny Machado in free agency, but MLB.com’s Jon Morosi reports that the Phils are also eyeing left-hander Patrick Corbin. Philadelphia has substantial payroll flexibility and a sense of urgency on the heels of a late 2018 collapse, but they’ll surely face quite a bit of competition in a pursuit of Corbin. The Yankees and Nationals, too, have shown early interest in Corbin.
  • Morosi also notes within that column that the Brewers are exploring the market for rotation help and have shown some preliminary interest in righty Anibal Sanchez. The 34-year-old parlayed a minor league deal with the Braves into an absolutely brilliant rebound campaign that landed him 28th on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agent rankings. Beyond a 2.83 ERA with 8.9 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 0.99 HR/9 and a 45 percent ground-ball rate in 134 1/3 innings, Sanchez also allowed the least hard contact of any pitcher in the game, per Statcast.
  • Speaking of generating weak contact, that skill will be at the forefront of agent Scott Boras’ pitch to teams when marketing lefty Dallas Keuchel, as Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes (subscription required). Boras, speaking to Rosenthal, tabbed Keuchel as the “soft-contact genius of his era” — and though the title is dripping with characteristic Boras hyperbole, it’s also underscored by truth. As Rosenthal points out, Keuchel leads the Majors in soft-contact rate (26.9 percent) since his big league debut. Boras notes that Keuchel’s age-26 through age-30 seasons stack up comparably with those of Andy Pettitte and Tom Glavine as well — another semi-outlandish but also factual claim that’ll no doubt be in his pitch to owners and top-ranking baseball ops executives.
  • Rosenthal also reports that while the Angels are looking to add to both the bullpen and the rotation, it’s also possible they’ll listen to offers on right-hander Blake Parker. The 33-year-old Parker has been terrific find for GM Billy Eppler, pitching to a 2.90 ERA with 10.5 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 and 22 saves in 133 2/3 innings since being claimed off waivers in December 2016. Parker is arbitration-eligible this winter and projected to earn $3.1MM and is controllable through the 2020 season.

Examining Draft Pick Compensation For The 5 Teams That Could Lose Qualified Free Agents

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Five different teams made qualifying offers to free agents this winter. Six of the seven players turned down the one-year, $17.9MM offer.  Here’s what each of those teams stands to gain in draft pick compensation.

Astros

The Astros made a qualifying offer to Dallas Keuchel.  The Astros were neither a revenue sharing recipient nor a competitive balance tax payor. Therefore, regardless of the size of the contract Keuchel signs, the Astros will receive draft pick compensation after Competitive Balance Round B, which takes place after the second round.

Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks made qualifying offers to Patrick Corbin and A.J. Pollock.  The D’Backs were a revenue sharing recipient. If Corbin or Pollock signs for a guarantee of $50MM or more, the D’Backs get draft pick compensation after the first round. If one of the players signs for less than $50MM, the Diamondbacks get draft pick compensation after Comp Round B. Corbin is a near-lock to sign for more than $50MM, while Pollock is a borderline case.  Of the six qualified free agents, the $50MM contract size threshold only matters in the cases of Corbin and Pollock.

Dodgers

The Dodgers made a qualifying offer to catcher Yasmani Grandal (Hyun-Jin Ryu already accepted his). Like the Astros, they were neither a revenue sharing recipient nor a competitive balance tax payor. Regardless of the amount Grandal signs for, the Dodgers will receive draft pick compensation after Competitive Balance Round B.

Nationals

The Nationals made a qualifying offer to Bryce Harper, and the Nats were a competitive balance tax payor.  Therefore, the Nationals will receive draft pick compensation after the fourth round regardless of the size of contract Harper signs.

Red Sox

The Red Sox made a qualifying offer to Craig Kimbrel, and the Sox were a competitive balance tax payor.  Therefore, the Red Sox will receive draft pick compensation after the fourth round regardless of the size of contract Kimbrel signs.

The Nationals and Red Sox stand to gain fairly unimpressive draft picks, likely somewhere in the 140s.  The Astros and Dodgers should get picks in the 80s.  The D’Backs should get a pick in the 30s for Corbin.  Pollock could land them a pick in the 30s or the 80s depending on whether he gets $50MM.

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