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Twins Could Pursue First Base Addition

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The Twins snapped the longest postseason losing streak in North American sports this year when they swept the Blue Jays out of the Wild Card round before falling 3-1 in an ALDS loss to the Astros. They’ll head into the offseason facing the potential loss of Cy Young finalist Sonny Gray, but there are also other areas of need on the roster. President of baseball operations Derek Falvey indicated to Bobby Nightengale of the Minneapolis Star Tribune that his club could also be in the market for an addition to their first base mix.

“With [Alex Kirilloff] and with potential external additions, it’ll probably be an area we do spend some time this offseason from free agent or trade perspective,” Falvey said of his team’s first base outlook.

Kirilloff, a longtime top prospect whose career trajectory has been altered by persistent wrist and shoulder injuries, served as the Twins’ primary first baseman when healthy in 2023. Free agents Donovan Solano and Joey Gallo also logged significant time at first base. There’s yet to be any indication the Twins plan to re-sign either. Gallo, in particular, seems likely to depart.

The 26-year-old Kirilloff turned in a very sound .270/.348/.445 batting line with 11 home runs in 319 plate appearances, but he also had multiple shoulder-related IL stints before ultimately undergoing surgery at season’s end. That procedure, Nightengale writes, was actually less invasive than the Twins originally anticipated, and he’s expected to be ready for spring training.

That said, it’s hard to bank on Kirilloff assuming the position on a full-time basis next year. The Twins thought highly enough of the former first-round pick to give him his MLB debut during the 2020 postseason, and he’s now spent parts of three seasons on the MLB roster. However, this past campaign’s 88 games and 319 plate appearances are both career-highs. Kirilloff’s 2021 and 2022 seasons ended with wrist surgery.

There’s little doubting Kirilloff’s raw abilities. He was the 15th overall draft pick in 2016 and hit a combined .324/.381/.525 in the minors — including a gaudy .366/.458/.673 in 53 Triple-A games. Prior to his MLB debut, he peaked as the game’s No. 15 overall prospect at Baseball America and climbed as high as ninth on MLB.com’s top 100 rankings. Even with the past wrist issues and ongoing shoulder troubles in ’23, he was a well above-average hitter. But his ability to remain on the field and the extent to which he can recover from a third notable surgery in three years are both open questions.

The Twins have alternatives at the position. Rookie infielder Edouard Julien, a top-100 prospect in his own right, hit the big league scene with a .263/.381/.459 batting line and 16 home runs as a rookie in 408 plate appearances this season. He’s primarily been a second baseman, but there are questions about his ability to handle that spot long term and Julien already logged some time at first base. With Jorge Polanco entrenched at second base, slotting Julien in at first base and designated hitter could get his bat into the lineup more regularly. Of course, the Twins’ wealth of young infield talent makes Polanco an obvious trade candidate, and if he’s moved, that’d clear a spot for Julien at second base and Kirilloff and/or an external acquisition at first base.

Also in the mix is Jose Miranda — yet another former top prospect who broke through with a terrific rookie showing in 2022 before regressing in 2023 and eventually requiring a shoulder surgery of his own. Miranda batted .268/.325/.426 with 15 home runs in 125 games as a rookie in ’22 but limped to a .211/.263/.303 line in 40 big league games this past season. His work in Triple-A wasn’t any better, and he wound up being diagnosed with a shoulder impingement that resulted in September surgery. Still just 25 years of age, a healthy Miranda could work his way back into the mix as well.

Suffice it to say, the Twins aren’t short on in-house options. The looming possibility of a Polanco trade (thus opening second base for Julien), uncertainty surrounding the health/durability of Kirilloff and Miranda, and the hopeful opening of some at-bats at the designated hitter position could all pave the way for Minnesota to bring in a bat, though. Byron Buxton spent the bulk of the 2023 season as a designated hitter due to lingering complications from last winter’s knee surgery, but the Twins are optimistic that he’ll be able to return to center field in 2024, per Falvey. That’d be a boon both offensively and defensively, if he’s able to do so.

The offseason market at first base isn’t exactly deep in terms of star power, though Rhys Hoskins stands as a prominent name on the open market (assuming his own recovery from a torn ACL progresses as expected). Brandon Belt is also available, though he’s a strict platoon option and bats from the same side of the plate as the left-handed Kirilloff. Buy-low options include Garrett Cooper and old friend C.J. Cron. Pete Alonso’s name has been kicked around the trade market, but Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns said this week that he does not anticipate trading the star slugger (link via Will Sammon of The Athletic).

The Twins are expected to reduce payroll this coming season, albeit not drastically so. Revenue losses stemming from the collapse of their television deal under Diamond Sports Group’s bankruptcy create uncertainty in Minnesota, where Roster Resource currently projects them for a $125MM payroll. Dan Hayes of The Athletic reported earlier this week that the team’s payroll would likely settle between $125-140MM. Trading Polanco ($10.5MM), Max Kepler ($10MM) and/or Christian Vazquez ($10MM) would create some breathing room, as could a trade or non-tender of utility infielder Kyle Farmer (projected $6.6MM arbitration salary, per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz).

Mets Looking To Add Multiple Starting Pitchers This Offseason

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The Mets want to add multiple starting pitchers this winter, president of baseball operations David Stearns tells Tim Healey of Newsday. However, that may not involve pursuing the top guys available. “You always love to bring in top-flight talent and top-flight pitching,” Stearns said. “Do I think we need one? No. You can compile pitching staffs in a variety of different ways. Certainly any time you have horses at the front of the rotation, it makes everything else a little bit easier. But it’s not impossible to do it without that.”

The fact that the club is looking to make a number of additions is fairly sensible. Last year, they traded away their co-aces Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander at the deadline. At the end of the season, Carlos Carrasco became a free agent and David Peterson underwent hip surgery that will keep him out of action until the middle of next year.

That leaves the rotation with Kodai Senga and José Quintana in two spots, with Tylor Megill, Joey Lucchesi and José Butto options for the back end. Megill had a 4.70 earned run average in 2023 but with subpar strikeout and walk rates of 18.5% and 10.2%, respectively. Lucchesi had a strong 2.89 ERA in his nine starts but with just a 16.4% strikeout rate, likely helped by a strand rate of 80.1%. Butto has just 46 innings of major league work and he just posted a 5.93 ERA at Triple-A in 2023.

Given the state of things, it’s understandable that the club will be looking to bring in multiple arms in order to improve the rotation for 2024. Exactly how aggressive they will be is an open question. The club had the highest payroll in baseball history in 2023 but that didn’t work out and it seems 2024 might be something of a transitional year. It’s tough to know exactly what it looks like for owner Steve Cohen to take a step back from record-setting spending, as that could still lead to the club forking out plenty of money. Agent Scott Boras was asked about this and phrased it thusly: “When you have the bigger jet, and you say you’re going slower, you’re still going faster,” Boras said, per Will Sammon of The Athletic.

That perhaps suggests the club is still indicating a certain level of aggression in its conversations with player agents, but the comments from Stearns also imply they might be happy to spread money around to various mid-level guys as opposed to targeting aces. At the top of the free agent market, pitchers like Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Aaron Nola and Jordan Montgomery are likely to land nine-figure deals. There should also be sizeable eight-figure deals available to pitchers like Sonny Gray, Eduardo Rodriguez and Shota Imanaga. Then there will be guys like Luis Severino, Frankie Montas and Hyun Jin Ryu that should be attainable on low-cost bounceback deals. Time will tell how the Mets plan to assess these options but making a long-term investment would make sense even if they are pumping the brakes a bit. Quintana has just one year left on his deal and most of the club’s top prospects are position players, meaning there’s even more rotation uncertainty in the long term.

Stearns was also asked about first baseman Pete Alonso, per Sammon, and reiterated his previous position that he doesn’t expect a preseason trade. “I think I do not anticipate him getting traded,” Stearns said. “I don’t draw lines in the sand. And I’m never gonna say never. But I absolutely think it’s fair that I don’t anticipate him being traded.” Alonso is going into his final arbitration season before reaching free agency, so the club will have to pick a lane at some point. But with a good deal of uncertainty about the 2024 club, it seems they are leaning towards holding. If the club has another poor season in 2024, they could always pivot to a deadline deal.

Another option would be to pursue an extension. It doesn’t sound like anything is imminent there but it also doesn’t seem like the lines of communication are dead. “When it comes to the Polar Bear, we’re not in contract hibernation,” Boras said. He added that he follows the instructions given to him by his clients and Alonso has told him to listen to whatever the Mets have to say.

Sammon also rounds up a few other bits of Mets’ news from a busy week in the baseball world, including the fact that pitching coach Jeremy Hefner is going to stay on as pitching coach. With the club adding a new manager in Carlos Mendoza, it wasn’t known if he would then bring in someone from the outside for that job but Hefner will apparently stick around. Meanwhile, the club won’t hire a general manager this winter. Billy Eppler was going to be in that role before stepping aside amid an investigation into the club’s misuse of the injured list. Front offices are generally composed of dozens of decision makers, from assistant GMs to vice-presidents and so on, meaning the lack of someone with that specific GM title won’t mean much with Stearns the primary decision maker.

Turning back to the roster, neither outfielder Starling Marte nor infielder/outfielder Jeff McNeil are expected to require offseason surgery. Marte had groin surgery last offseason and never seemed to be fully healthy in 2023, finishing the year on the injured list due to ongoing issues with his groin. McNeil, meanwhile, was diagnosed with a partially torn UCL in his left elbow. He throws with his right arm anyway but it appears both he and Marte are making good progress and can perhaps return without going under the knife this winter. As for designated hitter Daniel Vogelbach, the club is still undecided on whether or not they will tender him a contract for 2024. The non-tender deadline is November 17, giving them just over a week to pick a path with him. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected Vogelbach for a salary of $2.6MM.

Mets Notes: Alonso, Vogelbach, Ottavino

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The future of Mets first baseman Pete Alonso has been a focus of speculation in recent months, given reports that the club discussed a trade with both the Brewers and Cubs ahead of this year’s trade deadline. Of course, later reporting indicated that the Mets didn’t plan to actively shop Alonso this offseason, while new president of baseball operations David Stearns himself threw some cold water on the rumors by indicating during his introductory press conference that he expects Alonso to be the club’s starting first baseman on Opening Day 2024.

A new wrinkle has emerged regarding Alonso’s future plans, as Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported this morning that Alonso has changed representation ahead of his final offseason under club control, moving from Apex Baseball to Boras Corporation, the agency run by high-profile agent Scott Boras.

The change in representation seems to lessen the odds of the Mets and Alonso coming to an agreement on a contract extension before he hits free agency next offseason, as it’s been relatively rare for high-profile Boras clients to sign extensions the offseason before hitting free agency. The deal between right-hander Lance McCullers Jr. and the Astros prior to the 2021 season and the pact between the Red Sox and shortstop Xander Bogaerts back in 2019 show that proclivity is hardly universal.

What’s more, Heyman notes the recent success the Mets have had in working with Boras, as the sides agreed to $100MM+ deals for veteran ace Max Scherzer and center fielder Brandon Nimmo in free agency the past two offseasons. Nimmo’s case is worth particular consideration, as the former 13th-overall pick made it to free agency last offseason after spending his whole career with the Mets, much as Alonso has, before ultimately re-signing with the club.

More from Queens…

  • On the heels of manager Buck Showalter’s recent departure, Mike Puma of the New York Post discusses a major point of contention between Showalter and the front office over the summer: playing time for slugger Daniel Vogelbach. Showalter reportedly wanted to explore other options at DH against right-handed pitching early in the season, including cycling regulars through the position to get them a partial day off, thanks to Vogelbach’s lack of power production: he slashed just .219/.364/.314 over his first 43 games. Showalter met resistance from GM Billy Eppler regarding that desire, however, with Eppler insisting on Vogelbach remaining in the lineup. Vogelbach, 30, is headed into his final season of arbitration eligibility in 2024.
  • Though right-hander Adam Ottavino recently indicated that he intends to return to the Mets next year by exercising his $6.75MM player option for the 2024 campaign, the 37-year-old veteran recently spoke with less certainty regarding his impending option decision, telling reporters (including Puma) that while he likes the Mets, he wants to see “how things shake out” in the early offseason before coming to a decision. Ottavino posted a solid season for the club, with a 3.21 ERA and 4.52 FIP in 66 appearances, though that performance was a considerable step back from the 2.06 ERA and 2.85 FIp he posted in 2022.

Mets Officially Introduce David Stearns As President Of Baseball Operations

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The Mets formally announced David Stearns as the club’s new president of baseball operations today, making official the long-speculated upon move weeks after a deal was between the sides was first reported. Club owner Steve Cohen released a statement this morning ahead of Stearns’s introductory press conference this afternoon.

“I’m incredibly excited to welcome David back to Queens,” Cohen said in the statement, “I said numerous times I wanted to find the right person for this position, and I believe David is exactly that – an experienced executive with a wide range of skillsets that will push our baseball operations forward.” Stearns, meanwhile, said in the statement that “there is not an opportunity in baseball more meaningful to me than the chance to help lead this franchise” before recounting his childhood as a Mets fan. Later in the day, the club introduced Stearns in a press conference.

During the presser, Stearns thanked recently-fired manager Buck Showalter for his contributions to the organization and, as relayed by Abbey Mastracco of the New York Daily News, emphasized that he was not able to talk with the former manager before today because he was still under contract with the Brewers. As far as the search for a new manager goes, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com relayed that Stearns plans on casting a wide net and has no one in particular in mind. Stearns’s comments come amid widespread speculation that current Brewers manager Craig Counsell, whose contract in Milwaukee expires after the 2023 campaign, could follow his former boss to New York. Of course, Counsell has made no indication on whether he intends to manage at all in 2024, much less whether he intends on leaving the Brewers.

Perhaps the most significant news to come from Stearns’s introductory presser is that the club’s new executive plans to retain first baseman Pete Alonso headed into next season. Stearns told reporters (including Newsday’s Tim Healey) that he expects Alonso to be the club’s Opening Day first baseman in 2024, with DiComo adding praise for Alonso from Stearns. “Pete is a great player,” Stearns said, “He is also good in the clubhouse, and he is also homegrown. All of that matters.”

The assurance from Stearns that Alonso will be part of the 2024 club is surely a relief to Mets fans, given reporting in recent months that the Mets looked into trades involving Alonso ahead of the trade deadline this year, with the Cubs and Brewers among interested parties. Those reports, combined with comments from recently-traded ace Max Scherzer following the trade deadline indicating a potential step back in 2024, led to plenty of speculation about whether or not the club would deal Alonso this offseason, ahead of the slugger’s final year of club control. Alonso slashed .217/.318/.504 with 46 home runs in 658 trips to the plate this season.

Mets Notes: Alonso, Front Office, Carrasco

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Pete Alonso’s future in Queens has been the subject of speculation ever since the first baseman was at least discussed with other teams prior to the trade deadline.  Since Alonso is a free agent after the 2024 season, there is a possibility he isn’t a long-term concern for a Mets team that is taking some degree of step back next year, which makes him perhaps the most intriguing trade candidate available this offseason.

That is, if Alonso is available at all.  SNY’s Andy Martino threw some cold water on the idea of a blockbuster trade, reporting that unnamed Mets executives were “surprised and confused” at the public perception that Alonso will be dealt at all.  The Mets don’t intend “to actively shop Alonso,” and would only be open to a deal in the event of a huge offer from a rival club.

As Martino notes, much could change between now and the offseason, so this isn’t exactly an absolute declaration that Alonso won’t moved.  Of course, it also helps New York’s leverage in trade negotiations to appear as though Alonso isn’t for sale, in order to up the bidding for potential suitors.  Given how much league-wide interest there is in Alonso’s services, the Mets probably won’t need “to actively shop” such a top-tier hitter anyway.

It seems likely that Alonso trade rumors will persist in some fashion either until a deal actually happens, or if Alonso signs an extension to remain in New York.  For now, Martino writes that the club’s plan is to let Alonso play out the 2024 season and then pursue a new contract, as they did with other recent pending free agents like Edwin Diaz, Brandon Nimmo, and Jacob deGrom.  It is a bit of a risky gambit since it assumes the Mets won’t be outbid for Alonso’s services, though the club was able to re-sign both Nimmo and Diaz, with the latter locked up to a new deal just before the free agent market officially opened last November.

All of this could remain theoretical until the Mets hire their new president of baseball operations, who could bring some new ideas and plans into the organization.  A new PBO isn’t expected to be hired until after the season, but some key front office personnel are already on the way out.  The Mets have parted ways with director of player development Kevin Howard (as per Mike Mayer of Metsmerized), director of pro player evaluation Jeff Lebow (according to reporter Michael Marino), baseball development director Bryan Hayes and performance director Jim Cavallini (as per MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo).  It is probably safe to assume that the new hires won’t be announced until the new PBO is in place, as the incoming president will want some say in installing their own staff.

Lebow and Hayes had both been with the Mets in various roles for over a decade, while Cavallini had been with the team since 2018 and Howard since 2021.  Howard might be best known by casual fans, as he briefly served as the Mets’ interim assistant hitting coach during the 2021 campaign before turning to his player development position after the season.

In other Mets news, Carlos Carrasco has at least temporarily been moved to a relief role.  As manager Buck Showalter told reporters (including Abbey Mastracco of the New York Daily News), Carrasco suggested the move himself, as a nod to throwing only 49 pitches over 1 2/3 innings in his last start on August 26.  The veteran righty’s last turn in the rotation was skipped, and it isn’t clear when he might start again, as the Mets’ rotation plans will be shuffled due to a pair of off-days this upcoming week.

It’s been a tough year overall for Carrasco, who missed about a month due to elbow inflammation and hasn’t looked right all season, posting a 6.80 ERA over 90 innings.  Carrasco will be a free agent this winter and New York already looked into an early parting of the ways by placing him on waivers last week, though since Carrasco cleared waivers, the Mets will remain on the hook for the $2.33MM still owed in salary between now and the end of the season.

Carrasco’s struggles and salary made it quite likely that he wouldn’t be picked up another team, so September now looks to be his final month in a Mets uniform.  He could end up making another start or two down the stretch, though with the Mets out of contention, the priority is likely to give innings to younger arms as an audition for 2024.  Carrasco’s relief efforts could hint at a new career direction as he approaches his age-37 season, yet since Carrasco was still an effective starter as recently as 2022, he is likely to head into free agency still marketing himself as a rotation arm.

MLB Trade Rumors Podcast: Ohtani’s Torn UCL, Free Agent Power Rankings and Stephen Strasburg to Retire

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss:

Plus, we answer your questions, including:

  • Would the Brewers be a good fit for Pete Alonso? (21:10)
  • What will the Cubs do at first base next year and could Alonso be a fit? (24:50)
  • Could Alonso fit on the Twins? (26:35)

Check out our past episodes!

  • The White Sox Fire Their Front Office, Injured Rays and Prospect Promotion Time – listen here
  • Pete Alonso’s Future, Yankees’ Rotation Troubles and Should the Trade Deadline Be Pushed Back? – listen here
  • The Streaking Mariners, the Struggling Angels and Injured Aces – listen here

Brewers, Cubs Among Teams To Discuss Pete Alonso With Mets Before Deadline

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The Mets’ retool was one of the defining stories of the trade deadline. While it became clear in the weeks approaching August 1 that rentals like Tommy Pham and David Robertson would be on the move, New York’s course of action with Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander remained a mystery until the weekend before the deadline.

In the wake of trading the future Hall of Famers to AL West rivals, Mets’ brass indicated they were prepared to take a step back in 2024 while focusing on the longer-term future. Owner Steve Cohen has expressed his hope the club will be competitive next year but forecast a quieter offseason than the franchise has had in the past two winters.

The club’s less certain intentions for ’24 have raised some questions about Pete Alonso’s future. The three-time All-Star has one more season of arbitration eligibility. Even if the Mets aren’t rebuilding, there’s an argument for them to pick a clear direction regarding Alonso — either by trading him to a clearer contender or working to get an extension wrapped up.

[Related: What Path Should The Mets Pick With Pete Alonso?]

Last week, the New York Post’s Mike Puma wrote the Mets had floated Alonso’s name in trade talks prior to the deadline. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic shines some light on those discussions, reporting that the Brewers and Cubs were among the teams in contact with New York brass. Rosenthal suggests talks between the Mets and Milwaukee had more traction than conversations with the Cubs, though it isn’t clear how close New York got to a deal with any team.

Asked about Rosenthal’s report following the Mets’ loss in Atlanta tonight, Alonso reiterated to reporters that he “(loves) being a Met (and) representing the city of New York” (via Tim Healey of Newsday). The star slugger unsurprisingly didn’t provide specifics about the chances of an extension, noting he “(doesn’t) know what the future holds.”

If the Mets were to seriously consider moving him next offseason, Alonso would quite likely be the best hitter on the trade market. He’s one homer away from reaching 40 for the third time in his four 162-game seasons (and was on a similar pace during the shortened schedule). Alonso’s .224 average and .325 on-base percentage are narrowly career-low marks, though it’s possible his rate production was deflated by injury.

He sprained his left wrist on a hit-by-pitch in June, an injury that was initially expected to cost him three or four weeks. Instead, Alonso returned within 10 days. He hit just .155/.277/.366 between his return and the All-Star Break. Since the Midsummer Classic, he has a characteristically excellent .262/.359/.623 batting line.

Alonso is playing this season on a $14.5MM salary. That figure could push north of $20MM for his final arbitration season. That’s a notable sum but still below market value for an impact bat of Alonso’s ilk. The one year of remaining control would likely prevent the Mets from recouping a Top 50-caliber prospect in a trade, but there’d still be plenty of interest around the league.

Last winter, the Blue Jays shipped Teoscar Hernández to the Mariners before his final arbitration season. Hernández was a bit cheaper than Alonso will be — he eventually lost his hearing and is making $14MM — but wasn’t quite as good a hitter. Over the three seasons preceding the trade, Hernández hit .283/.333/.519. Alonso owns a .256/.341/.523 line going back to 2021 while playing his home games at a more pitcher-friendly environment.

It stands to reason the Mets would look to top the Jays’ return for Hernández. Seattle sent three seasons of club control over an above-average reliever (Erik Swanson) and a minor league pitcher (Adam Macko) whom Baseball America ranked the #10 prospect in the Toronto system after the trade. If another team acquires Alonso over the offseason, they’d be able to make a qualifying offer the following winter to partially backfill some of the prospect value they surrendered.

Each of Milwaukee and Chicago could check back in with the Mets about Alonso’s availability, though they certainly wouldn’t be the only teams with interest. Milwaukee acquired Carlos Santana to man first base down the stretch. He’s an impending free agent, while Rowdy Tellez seems likely to be non-tendered.

The Cubs have used Cody Bellinger and Jeimer Candelario — both of whom are impending free agents — at first base since the deadline. They already parted ways with Eric Hosmer and Trey Mancini earlier in the year. Prospect Matt Mervis is having an excellent season in Triple-A but scuffled in a 25-game MLB debut this summer. Even if the Cubs consider Mervis a likely everyday player going into ’24, they could certainly kick him over to designated hitter to accommodate a player of Alonso’s caliber.

MLB Trade Rumors Podcast: Pete Alonso’s Future, Yankees’ Rotation Troubles and Should the Trade Deadline Be Pushed Back?

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss:

  • Should the trade deadline be moved back, as has been considered by some? (1:15)
  • Mets need to pick a lane with Pete Alonso (9:35)
  • Yankees’ rotation is dealing with injuries again (14:15)

Plus, we answer your questions, including:

  • How can the Cardinals get in shape this offseason? (20:05)
  • Can the Mariners line up on a trade with the Cards? (24:10)
  • What will be the biggest needs for the Diamondbacks this winter? (27:00)
  • What does Mitch Garver’s free agency look like this winter? (28:30)

Check out our past episodes!

Mets Explored Pete Alonso Trades At Deadline

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The Mets’ selloff at the trade deadline signaled both a concession of the 2023 season and potentially more of a turn towards the 2025 campaign, though owner Steve Cohen still expects next year’s Mets to be “very competitive” if not “as star-studded a team as it was” in 2022 and 2023.  Beyond just rental players traded, Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander were also dealt in a pair of blockbuster moves, leading to a lot of speculation about what other moves the Mets might have in store for players who aren’t under longer-term control.

To this end, Pete Alonso’s future in Queens has now become subject to speculation, and it appears as though the Mets at least tested the waters about also moving the first baseman at the deadline.  The New York Post’s Mike Puma writes that Alonso was “dangled” by the Mets, though “it’s unclear how serious the Mets were about trying to trade the first baseman.”  It could be that the Mets were just gauging the market, as “they never came close to” an Alonso trade since no team stepped up to meet New York’s “very high” demands for a return.

Naturally the Mets weren’t going to move the slugger without getting a lot back, as Alonso carried a lot of value in a market short on available bats, let alone premium power threats who are controlled through the 2024 season.  However, it could be that injury concerns might have quieted the market, as Alonso spent only 10 days on the injured list after suffering a left wrist sprain/bone bruise in early June, but then struggled after his quick return.  Getting back to action on June 18, Alonso had only a .549 OPS over the 107 plate appearances following his IL stint.

Alonso has looked a lot more like his usual self over the last few weeks, giving rival teams at least some assurance prior to the deadline that his wrist was recovered.  For the season as a whole, Alonso entered today’s action with a .226/.325/.532 slash line and 35 homers over 453 PA, with solid peripheral numbers except for a minuscule .200 BABIP that has held down his batting average.

In short, Alonso would still be a big trade chip for New York to place on the table this winter, if the club did have designs on eventually moving the slugger.  Alonso has one more year of arbitration eligibility remaining so he’ll earn a raise on his $14.5MM salary for 2023, and he’ll be 30 years old on Opening Day 2025, following his scheduled trip to free agency during the 2024-25 offseason.

In a poll earlier this week on MLBTR, 51 percent of readers polled felt the Mets should sign Alonso to an extension rather than trade him or wait until the 2024 season to pursue either course.  The Mets haven’t been shy about locking up key players during Cohen’s time as owner, though Alonso is just about the only prominent Met who hadn’t yet gotten a new longer-term deal.  Of course, this doesn’t mean that Alonso’s status wasn’t or isn’t eventually going to be addressed, especially since Cohen said he wants to “work things out” on an extension, and described Alonso as “an integral part of the Mets.”

The Mets might opt to playing the waiting game on two different fronts with Alonso this winter.  If extension talks aren’t getting anywhere, the Mets could pursue a trade more fervently, with any information gathered during their deadline talks acting as perhaps a stepping stone to an eventual deal in a few months’ time.  Conversely, the Mets could hold off on long-term contract talks with Alonso until the more normal extension negotiation period of Spring Training, and only take that route after first using the winter to more fully gauge the market in case a suitor meets their asking price.

Poll: What Path Should The Mets Pick With Pete Alonso?

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The outlook for the Mets has completely changed in recent months. They spent heavily this winter, running up the highest payroll in major league history, and came into the season as World Series contenders. Unfortunately, they struggled to get into a groove in the early parts of the season and decided to sell at the deadline. Not only did they flip rental pieces like Tommy Pham and David Robertson, but also guys who could have helped the 2024 club like Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander and Mark Canha.

After being traded to the Rangers, Scherzer spoke publicly about how he was given the sense that next year “is now looking to be more of a kind of transitory year,” with the aggression dialed back a bit. Owner Steve Cohen addressed that situation the next day, essentially confirming Scherzer’s framing by saying that the 2024 club “won’t be as star-studded” as this year’s team. He did say that he hopes the team will still be “very competitive” and that this “doesn’t mean we’re not going to bring in free agents,” but it seems the plan is to step back.

Now that the deadline has passed, the club can’t make any more trades for the next few months, but it’s possible they could resume their selling in the offseason. Starling Marte will still have two years remaining on his contract after this one, with salaries of $19.5MM in each season. José Quintana will have one year and $13MM left on his contract. Omar Narváez is a lock to trigger his $7MM player option and Adam Ottavino seems like he’ll exercise his at $6.75MM as well. The club has a $6.5MM option for the services of Brooks Raley in 2024. Trevor Gott has one year of control and will be due an arbitration raise on this year’s $1.2MM salary.

If the Mets are looking to continue down the path they picked at the deadline, trading veterans for prospects and eating money to get a better return, any of those players could be a candidate for such an approach. Some of those cases will present the club with difficult decisions, but the most challenging will be their choice of how to handle Pete Alonso. He is making $14.5MM this year and is eligible for one more arbitration raise in 2024, before he’s slated for free agency.

Alonso, 28, is obviously an incredibly talented hitter. From his 2019 debut to the present, he’s hit 180 home runs, including 34 this year. His career batting line of .255/.343/.533 is 37% better than league average, according to wRC+. His home run tally in that stretch is the highest in the majors and that wRC+ places him just outside the top 10 among qualified hitters.

With the Mets looking to ease off the gas pedal in 2024 and Alonso slated for the open market after that campaign, the club will have to pick a lane. They could pursue trades in the offseason, though doing so would come with the negative public relations hit of moving on from a homegrown star player, as Alonso was drafted by the Mets in 2016. They could also try to sign Alonso to a long-term extension, though he would have to agree to any such pact.

The Mets could also kick the decision down the road and see how things go in 2024. It doesn’t seem like they will be giving up all hopes of contention. As Cohen said, it seems they will likely still bring in some free agents and see how things go next year. The club could hang onto Alonso until next year’s deadline, see if the baseball gods are any kinder to them and pick a lane at that point. Even if they held onto to him all the way through 2024 and took a shot at contending, they could recoup a draft pick by extending him a qualifying offer at that point. That path would come with some risk, as Alonso could always suffer an injury or a downturn in performance, causing his trade value to drop.

The path of pursuing a trade this offseason would certainly lead to the club finding many suitors. They will only be marketing one year of his services but the free agent crop of position players in incredibly weak this winter, with the class far heavier on the pitching side. Alonso will be making a hefty salary which could eliminate some suitors, but the Mets haven’t been shy about swallowing money in order to facilitate deals, sending more than $35MM to the Rangers in the Scherzer deal.

The Mets certainly have the resources to get an extension done, though it’s unclear how much appetite they would have to get one done with Alonso. Cohen recently called him “an integral part of the Mets” and hoped they can “work things out” on a long-term deal, but their plan to dial back their spending might clash with that. They already have significant long-term deals on the books for Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo, Edwin Díaz, Kodai Senga and Jeff McNeil, which means they already have over $100MM on the books as far out as 2026.

If the Mets are focused on building up their pipeline of young talent and assessing the future before charting their next big moves, will they want to add a massive deal for Alonso to the pile when that will surely require a nine-figure outlay of some kind? There’s also the question of how his defense will age, since he’s not a star in that department as it is. Defensive Runs Saved has given him a passable +3 grade for his career, but Ultimate Zone Rating pegs him at -2.9 with Outs Above Average at -16. A long-term deal would come with the risk of him sliding into DH-only status over time.

Perhaps another factor will be the development of the prospects they have recently added to the system. Ryan Clifford, acquired from the Astros in the Verlander deal, can play the outfield corners but has spent more time at first base this year. He has yet to reach Double-A but the Mets surely acquired him in the hopes that he would be a part of a future championship core at some point down the line. Perhaps they would prefer to track his development before deciding on how to proceed with Alonso.

Until the Mets either trade Alonso or get an extension done, his in-between status is likely to be one of the biggest storylines this offseason. What do you think is the path they should take? Put him on the trading block and continue loading the farm system for future success? Lock him up so that he can be a part of the next competitive window? Or wait until the 2024 deadline, when they will have more information about their own competitive chances and the development of their prospects?

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