The relationship between the Mets and Pete Alonso has a ticking clock on it, with the slugging first baseman now less than a year away from free agency. There have been plenty of rumors about the possibilities of a trade or an extension, though neither has come to fruition thus far. This week, Jeff Passan of ESPN reported that Alonso’s requests in extension talks have surpassed the recent contracts for other first basemen from recent years. Meanwhile, Jesse Rogers of ESPN reports that the Cubs continue to have interest and would be willing to make Christopher Morel part of the return package.
Alonso’s appeal is obvious as he has been one of the best power bats in the majors since his 2019 debut. He has hit between 37 and 53 home runs in each full season of his career and 16 more in the shortened 2020 campaign. His 192 long balls since the start of 2019 are easily the most in baseball, with Matt Olson second at 177. Overall, Alonso has hit .251/.342/.528 for a wRC+ of 133. Reviews on his glovework are mixed, with Ultimate Zone Rating and Outs Above Average considering him to be subpar, though Defensive Runs Saved disagrees. Regardless, his bat is potent enough that he’s plenty valuable even without strong work in the field.
That Alonso is looking to get a contract “much bigger” than the top first base contracts of recent years, per Passan, is fairly logical given his output. The last decade saw some mammoth deals for first basemen but recent years have seen a softening. Miguel Cabrera got an extension of $248MM from the Tigers, topping the $240MM and $214MM earned by free agents Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder, respectively. But that Cabrera deal was in 2014, whereas the latter two deals were going into 2012.
Since that time, the two biggest guarantees for first basemen went to Olson and Freddie Freeman. Olson signed an eight-year, $168MM extension with Atlanta when he was still two years away from free agency. Back in February, MLBTR’s Anthony Franco took a look at Alonso as an extension candidate and noted the similarities between them at the time. But since then, Alonso has moved one year closer to the open market. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him to get a salary of $22MM in his final arbitration season. Players generally increase their earning power as they move closer to free agency, which give Alonso an argument for going past Olson at this point.
Freeman got his six-year, $162MM deal on the open market, but going into his age-32 season. He can’t match Alonso’s power but has generally had better batting averages and on-base percentages, in addition to a stronger defensive reputation. But Alonso is slated to reach free agency ahead of his age-30 campaign, making him two years younger than when Freeman went to the Dodgers.
All this suggests Alonso and agent Scott Boras are setting their sights on something in the $200MM range. It’s unclear if the Mets have any interest in meeting that asking price but it also doesn’t appear they are being pushed into a trade. President of baseball operations David Stearns has said multiple times that he expects Alonso to be the club’s Opening Day first baseman next year. “I don’t draw lines in the sand,” Stearns said last week. “And I’m never gonna say never. But I absolutely think it’s fair that I don’t anticipate him being traded.”
If the Mets were to consider a trade, the Cubs continue to have interest, per Rogers. The two clubs reportedly discussed Alonso at the deadline last year and the Cubs still don’t have an obvious solution at first base. Matt Mervis continued to hit well in Triple-A, slashing .282/.399/.533 this year, but his first 99 plate appearances in the majors led to a line of just .167/.242/.289. The Cubs could give him another shot but they may prefer a more established player like Alonso.
It was recently reported that Morel is getting some work at first base in winter ball, which gives them another option there, but a trade of Morel also seems to be on the table. He has struck out at a 31.6% clip in his first 854 plate appearances but the power is real, launching 42 home runs in that time. The problem is defense, with Morel generally considered not a great fit for shortstop, third base or the outfield. Moving to first might be a decent compromise, but it would be a waste of his strong throwing arm, which Statcast places in the 99th percentile.
Morel has posted decent results at second base but the Cubs have a middle infield of Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner. Hoyer recently stated that “another team might be able to put him” at second, which perhaps suggests Morel is more valuable to the Cubs as a trade chip than anything else and this report from Rogers suggests that may indeed be their thinking.
The Mets have Jeff McNeil as their most likely option at the keystone, though he’s also capable of playing third base or an outfield corner, so perhaps they would have some interest in Morel. Giving up on a fan favorite like Alonso would be a tough pill to swallow but Morel is cheaper, having not yet reached arbitration, and still has five years of club control. It would leave the club with a hole at first base though they could perhaps try Mark Vientos there or acquire a cheap free agent stopgap. Prospect Ryan Clifford, acquired in the Justin Verlander trade, could be a future option at that spot but he’s yet to crack Double-A. Putting Morel at second could block Ronny Mauricio but he didn’t hit the ground running in his first major league action and could also move over to third base and battle Brett Baty for playing time. Luisangel Acuña, acquired in the Max Scherzer trade, could be an option at the keystone in the future but has yet to reach Triple-A to this point.
All this is speculative and there’s still nothing to suggest the Mets like Morel or even want to move Alonso. But they will likely have to make some kind of decision at some point. If they don’t trade Alonso now or at the 2024 trade deadline, they would be left to make him a qualifying offer at season’s end and collect a compensation pick. But since they are likely to pay the luxury tax yet again, that pick would be between the fourth and fifth round of the draft, surely far less appealing than whatever they could get in a trade. But with Steve Cohen’s unprecedented spending in recent years, it also wouldn’t be a shock to see Alonso locked up for an extended stay in Queens.
