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Seth Lugo

Padres Designate Nabil Crismatt For Assignment

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The Padres announced that right-hander Seth Lugo has been reinstated from the injured list, with fellow righty Nabil Crismatt designated for assignment in a corresponding move.

Crismatt, 28, began his major league career with the Cardinals in 2020. He only appeared in six games that season and was outrighted off the roster at season’s end. He signed a minor league deal with the Padres prior to the 2021 season and has been with them since. He made the club’s Opening Day roster that year and has served as an up-and-down arm for the club in recent years, often throwing multiple innings out of the bullpen while also getting frequently optioned to the minors.

Over 2021 and 2022, he tossed 148 2/3 innings over 95 appearances. He posted a combined 3.39 ERA over those two campaigns, striking out 21.6% of opponents while walking 7.3% and getting ground balls on 50.6% of balls in play.

He had exhausted his option years at that point and is now out of options here in 2023. This year, he made six appearances and struggled badly with a 10.80 ERA before landing on the injured list due to a hip strain. He returned from the IL a few days ago and tossed a scoreless inning on Friday. That dropped his ERA to 9.82 but he has now been squeezed off the roster.

The Padres will now have a week to trade Crismatt or pass him through waivers. His results have obviously been poor so far this year but it’s a small sample size and perhaps at least partially explained by the hip injury. He might garner interest based on his work in other seasons. Since he has a previous career outright, he would have the right reject an outright assignment and elect free agency if he were to pass through waivers unclaimed.

NL West Notes: Giants, Lugo, Dodgers

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Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area discussed the injury situations facing the Giants earlier today, noting that right-hander Alex Cobb expects to only miss the minimum 15-days after landing on the injured list earlier today with an oblique strain. Cobb noted to reporters that he felt he could take the mound as soon as Wednesday, but the club is opting to “protect him for the long haul”, in the words of manager Gabe Kapler.

That’s phenomenal news for San Francisco, as Cobb has been among the club’s most reliable starters this season with a 3.09 ERA and 3.24 FIP in 78 2/3 innings of work. Nonetheless, it raises the question of who the club can add to the rotation alongside Logan Webb, Alex Wood, and Anthony DeSclafani while Cobb is on the shelf. One possibility, per The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly, is right-hander Sean Hjelle, who was scratched from his start at the Triple-A level today. Hjelle could replace left-hander Scott Alexander on the active roster for the Giants, as both Pavlovic and Baggarly note that the lefty reliever is expected to head to the injured list after leaving today’s game against the Dodgers with a hamstring issue.

More from around the NL West…

  • The Padres expect to welcome right-hander Seth Lugo back into the fold on Tuesday, when he figures to start against the Giants in San Francisco. Per MLB.com, Lugo threw a 60-pitch simulated game on Thursday, which would put the righty in line for around 80 pitches on Tuesday. Manager Bob Melvin told reporters today that the injury, while not ideal, has allowed the club to manage Lugo’s innings. While Lugo had largely pitched well in eight starts, with a 4.10 ERA and a 3.94 FIP, Lugo has never thrown more than 101 1/3 innings in a season in his career and last threw more than 65 innings back in 2019. Given that reality, Lugo’s month-long stint on the injured list has potentially allowed San Diego to avoid limiting his innings later in the season.
  • Dodgers fans have new clarity on the timelines of left-hander Julio Urias and right-hander Daniel Hudson, both of whom have made notable strides in their rehab processes in recent days. Manager Dave Roberts provided a specific timetable to reporters today, as noted by J.P. Hoornstra of the Orange County Register. Per Roberts, both pitchers are poised to be activated from the injured list during the club’s upcoming three-game set in Kansas City, which will take place from June 30 to July 2. All told, Urias will have missed six weeks while dealing with a hamstring strain if everything goes according to plan from here, while Hudson will make his 2023 debut after missing more than a calendar year while rehabbing from left knee surgery.

Injury Notes: Quintana, Lugo, deGrom, Battenfield, Lee

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The Mets have been without offseason pickup José Quintana all season thanks to a Spring Training rib issue that required surgery. The veteran southpaw got positive news this afternoon though. After receiving good results on a recent CT scan, Quintana told reporters he’s set to begin throwing off a mound for the first time since March (relayed by Tim Healey of Newsday).

Quintana is in for an extended rehab process. He’ll need to build up arm strength and progress to throwing live batting practice sessions before a minor league rehab stint that’s sure to encompass multiple starts. During the spring, the Mets provided a July estimate for Quintana’s return to major league action. There’s no indication that timetable has changed, but it’s a positive development his recovery is going as anticipated.

New York has had one of the least productive rotations thus far. They entered play Friday with a 5.29 rotation ERA that ranks 25th leaguewide. That should improve with Justin Verlander back from an early-season injured list stint and Max Scherzer unlikely to carry a 4.88 ERA all season. Still, with Carlos Carrasco allowing nearly an earned run per inning and underwhelming work from depth starters David Peterson, Tylor Megill and Joey Lucchesi, the Mets could certainly use some stability from Quintana in the second half.

The latest on some other health situations around the game:

  • The Padres placed starter Seth Lugo on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to May 17, due to a right calf strain. Southpaw Ryan Weathers was recalled from Triple-A El Paso to replace him in the rotation. Signed to a two-year free agent guarantee, Lugo has made eight starts in his move back to the rotation from relief. He’s acquitted himself reasonably well, posting a 4.10 ERA with a roughly league average 21.3% strikeout rate across 41 2/3 innings. The 33-year-old righty is looking to reestablish himself as a starter and could retest the market next winter. His $15MM contract allows him to opt out of the final year and $7.5MM at season’s end.
  • Jacob deGrom threw a 25-pitch bullpen session this afternoon, writes Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. It has been three weeks since the two-time Cy Young winner hit the injured list with elbow inflammation. deGrom told Grant and other reporters he came out of the session feeling good, opining he’s “turned a corner” in his ramp-up. Rangers skipper Bruce Bochy indicated on May 9 the club felt deGrom was two to three weeks from a return to a big league mound. While it doesn’t seem he’ll be back within the next few days, all indications are the issue isn’t as alarming as it first seemed given deGrom’s health history. Last offseason’s big-ticket free agent addition has a 2.67 ERA with an elite 39.1% strikeout percentage in his first 30 1/3 innings in a Ranger uniform.
  • The Guardians put starter Peyton Battenfield on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to May 18, with inflammation in his throwing shoulder. The rookie righty has been a member of Cleveland’s rotation since being called up in mid-April. He’s started six of seven appearances but struggled to a 5.19 ERA through 34 2/3 innings. The Oklahoma State product has a modest 18.5% strikeout rate and has given up seven home runs. He spent virtually all of last season with Triple-A Columbus, working to a 3.63 ERA over 28 starts. Battenfield’s next turn through the rotation was scheduled for Monday, so the Guardians will need to settle on a replacement for that series opener against the White Sox.
  • The Braves placed reliever Dylan Lee on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to May 17, on account of shoulder inflammation. Fellow southpaw Lucas Luetge was activated from an IL stint of his own in a corresponding move. Lee was somewhat quietly among the best relievers in the game last season, when he worked to a 2.13 ERA while striking out 29.4% of batters faced in 50 1/3 innings. He’s not been quite at that pace this year but still carries a solid 3.10 ERA and 27.1% strikeout percentage in 20 appearances. Luetge, acquired in an offseason trade with the Yankees, has made just five appearances with his new team thus far thanks to a bout of biceps inflammation.

2023-24 Player Option/Opt-Out Update: April Edition

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Not long ago, any given year in Major League Baseball might have seen a handful of players have player options to decide upon at the end of a season. Opt-out clauses have slowly worked their way into normalcy among contract negotiations, however, and what was once a perk typically reserved for star players has become more commonly used as a means of either sealing a deal with mid-range free agents or in many instances, gaming the luxury tax. Player options are considered guaranteed money, after all, so it’s become common for clubs on the precipice of luxury penalization to negotiate complex player options that tamp down a contract’s average annual value even though they’re unlikely to ever be exercised.

For the purposes of this look around the league, there’s little sense in separating opt-outs from player options. The two are effectively the same, though “opt-out” typically refers to an out clause where there are multiple years remaining on the contract and “player option” generally refers to an individual decision on the forthcoming season. Both are considered guaranteed money for luxury purposes, and both ultimately come down to the player’s preference, risk tolerance, etc.

At their core, opt-out provisions aren’t particularly different from the much longer-accepted club options that teams have negotiated for years. Teams guarantee a certain number of dollars over a certain number of years, and if the player continues performing at a high enough level, they’ll exercise a club option that’s typically locked in at a below-market price. If not, the player will be bought out and sent back to free agency. Player options and opt-outs are merely the inverse; the player/agent negotiate a certain length and annual value but reserve the right to opt back into the market if the player continues to perform at a high level. It’s two sides of the same coin.

There are more players with the opportunity to opt out of their contract this offseason, by way of a one-year player option or a multi-year opt-out, than ever before. As such, we’ll be keeping tabs on these situations throughout the season. Short of a major injury, performance this early in the season isn’t likely to have a major impact on a player’s likelihood of opting out or forgoing that right, but it’s worth listing out which players will have the opportunity, what their contracts look like, and at least taking an early glance at how they’re performing.

Note: All stats through play on Tuesday.

Position Players

  • Tucker Barnhart, C, Cubs ($3.25MM player option): Barnhart’s deal was announced as a two-year, $6.5MM contract, though he also obtained the right to opt out after 2023, effectively rendering 2024 a player option. He’s 5-for-16 with a walk and four strikeouts through just 17 plate appearances as the backup to Yan Gomes. Barnhart got this guarantee on the heels of a dismal .221/.287/.267 showing with the Tigers in 2022, so with even a decent season he’ll have reason to opt out and try his luck again amid a thin group of free-agent catchers.
  • Josh Bell, 1B/DH, Guardians ($16.5MM player option): Bell limped to the finish line with the Padres after being traded over from the Nationals alongside Juan Soto in last summer’s blockbuster, and he hasn’t yet found his footing in 76 plate appearances with the Guardians. It’s a small sample, but Bell’s .203/.316/.344 slash looks quite similar to the .192/.316/.271 he mustered with San Diego in 2022. Bell hit 37 homers in 2019 and 27 in 2021, but he hits the ball on the ground far too often for someone with his power and lack of speed. Only one qualified hitter in MLB (Masataka Yoshida) has a higher ground-ball rate than Bell’s staggering 66.7% mark.
  • Trey Mancini, 1B/OF, Cubs ($7MM player option, if he reaches 350 plate appearances): Like Bell, Mancini saw his offensive production crater following a deadline trade (to the Astros) last summer and has not yet recovered in a new setting. Through 60 plate appearances, he’s hitting just .196/.220/.250. While his contract is a two-year, $14MM deal, Mancini can opt out if he reaches 350 plate appearances (i.e., the second year becomes a player option). He isn’t hitting yet, but Mancini is playing regularly and appears to be trending toward earning that right.
  • Javier Baez, SS, Tigers (can opt out of remaining four years, $98MM): After turning in a tepid .238/.278/.393 batting line in 590 plate appearances during his first season as a Tiger, Baez would need quite the season to walk away from this kind of cash. So far, he’s hitting .193/.254/.246 in 64 trips to the plate, however. When Baez gets hot, he can go on hot streaks for the ages, but he certainly doesn’t look like he’ll be opting out at season’s end.
  • Justin Turner, 3B/DH, Red Sox ($13.4MM player option): Turner hasn’t found his power yet in Boston, but he’s out to a .277/.385/.385 start with nearly as many walks as strikeouts. His $13.4MM player option comes with a hefty $6.7MM buyout. He’ll turn 39 in November, but as long as he hits reasonably well, he should have more earning power than that $6.7MM net decision.
  • Jorge Soler, OF/DH, Marlins ($9MM player option): Soler’s three-year, $36MM deal in Miami pays him $12MM in 2022, $15MM in 2023 and $9MM in 2024, but he had the right to opt out after each season of the deal. He hit just .207/.295/.400 with 13 homers in 306 plate appearances last year, so there was no way he was taking the first opt-out. He’s already clubbed five dingers in 62 plate appearances in 2023. His .263/.323/.649 slash translates to a 155 wRC+, and his exit velocity and hard-hit rate are through the roof, so his .256 average on balls in play should at least hold steady. Soler is an extremely streaky hitter, so time will tell how much of this early heater he can sustain, but there’s plenty to like about his start, including a reduced strikeout rate.
  • Michael Conforto, OF, Giants ($18MM player option, if he reaches 350 plate appearances): As with Mancini, Conforto is on a two-year deal but gains the right to opt out after one year if he reaches 350 plate appearances. You can call it an opt-out or a player option, but it’s the same mechanism; if Conforto is healthy, he’ll likely get the right to opt out. So far, he’s hitting .220/.373/.439 with a trio of homers in 51 trips to the plate. Conforto has walked nine times in those 51 plate appearances (17.6%), and his chase rate is actually down, so he still has good knowledge of the zone. However, a year-long layoff due to shoulder surgery is perhaps making itself known with a 74.5% contact rate on pitches in the strike zone, as that’s nearly 10 percentage points below his career mark of 84%. Unsurprisingly, Conforto’s 31.4% strikeout rate is a career worst. Some rust was inevitable, though, and the plate discipline and hard contact when he has made contact (94.4 mph exit velo, 52.5% hard-hit rate) are encouraging.
  • Matt Carpenter, 1B/DH, Padres ($5.5MM player option): Carpenter’s stunning return with the Yankees last year was one of the best stories of the summer, but he’s out to a sluggish .152/.317/.273 start with the Padres. He’s chasing off the plate at a 30.3% clip after doing so at a 20.7% rate last summer, and his contact rate on swings off the plate has plummeted from 62.5% to 36.4%. It’s a small sample and there’s time to turn things around, of course, but he’s had a tough start.

Pitchers

  • Andrew Heaney, LHP, Dodgers ($13MM player option): Heaney’s first Rangers start was one to forget (seven earned runs), but his second start was dominant, as he tied an AL record by fanning nine consecutive hitters. If Heaney tops 150 innings and doesn’t finish the year with an injury that’d likely keep him out for the first 60-plus innings of the 2024 season, the value of that player option jumps to $20MM. He hasn’t reached 150 innings since 2018.
  • Seth Lugo, RHP, Padres ($7.5MM player option): Lugo’s return to the rotation has been solid. He’s posted a 2.70 ERA through 16 2/3 frames with strikeout and walk ratios that look similar to his numbers out of the bullpen (24.3% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate). It’s anyone’s guess how many innings Lugo will tally after throwing just 228 innings combined from 2019-22, when he was primarily a reliever, but a solid run out of the rotation will position him to turn down that player option in search of a multi-year deal in free agency.
  • Sean Manaea, LHP, Giants ($12.5MM player option): The early ERA isn’t much to look at (4.76 in 11 1/3 innings), but the Giants have Manaea averaging 94.7 mph on his four-seamer. That’s a career-high by a wide margin, as he sat 91.7 mph on a now-scrapped sinker in 2021-22 and 91.1 mph on his four-seamer in 2017-20. Any major velocity gain of this nature is worth keeping an eye on.
  • Nick Martinez, RHP, Padres (team has two-year, $32MM club option; if declined, Martinez has two-year, $16MM player option): Martinez’s strikeout rate, walk rate, home-run rate and velocity have all gone the wrong direction through his first three starts. It’s just 17 2/3 innings, so it could be rendered a footnote if he rebounds and the Padres pick up their hefty option on the righty. Still, it’s not the start he or the Padres wanted.
  • Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP, Tigers (can opt out remaining three years, $49MM): E-Rod hasn’t missed bats anywhere near his Boston levels since signing with the Tigers. The lefty still showed good command both in 2022 and so far in 2023, but his 8.7% swinging-strike rate and 20.4% strikeout rate are well shy of the respective 11.6% and 26% marks he posted in his final four years with the Red Sox. Rodriguez’s velocity in 2023 is back up after a slight dip in 2022, but if he can’t get back to missing bats at his prior levels it’ll be an easy call for him to forego that opt-out provision.
  • Max Scherzer, RHP, Mets ($43.333MM player option): Scherzer hasn’t gotten out to his best start, but he posted a 2.29 ERA with gaudy strikeout and walk rates (30.6% and 4.2%) in 145 1/3 frames with the Mets in 2022. He was at the center of controversy after being ejected from today’s start after failing a foreign substance check, though that’s not likely to have any effect on his opt-out decision. Scherzer has already suggested that his opt-out was negotiated in part to ensure that he’d have an opportunity to look elsewhere if the Mets didn’t remain fully committed to winning. That hasn’t been the case under owner Steve Cohen, who’s currently financing the largest payroll and luxury-tax bill in MLB history.
  • Ross Stripling, RHP, Giants ($12.5MM player option): Stripling has been ambushed for 10 runs in his first 12 1/3 innings of work and had been set to operate primarily out of the bullpen before the injury to Alex Wood. It’s not a great start considering the weighty $25MM guarantee on his deal, but he has time to turn things around. A stunning six of the 13 fly-balls Stripling has yielded in 2023 have cleared the fence for a home run, and that rate will surely stabilize over a larger sample. Still, if he’s relegated to long-relief duty for too long, it’ll become difficult for him to even consider his opt-out.
  • Marcus Stroman, RHP, Cubs ($21MM player option): Stroman took a rather atypical contract structure for a 31-year-old free agent, inking a three-year guarantee at a premium annual value with an opt-out after year two. It’s more common to see pitchers that age push for the longest deal possible, but it might work out in Stroman’s favor. He’ll bank $50MM through the contract’s first two seasons, and after a nice 2022 season (3.50 ERA, 3.74 SIERA in 138 2/3 innings), he’s come roaring out of the gates with a 0.75 ERA and vastly improved 26.9% strikeout rate through his first 24 frames. Stroman’s walk rate is also up, and it’s all a small sample for now anyway, but it’s a promising start all the same. He’ll turn 33 in 2024, and if he continues anywhere near the pace he’s set since 2019 (3.15  ERA in 520 innings), he should have no problem topping that $21MM in free agency. He’ll also be ineligible for a qualifying offer, having already received one earlier in his career.
  • Michael Wacha, RHP, Padres (two-year, $32MM club option; if declined, Wacha has $6.5MM player option and $6MM player options in 2025-26): Wacha’s four-year, $26MM deal was effectively just the Padres manipulating the luxury tax by meeting Wacha’s price tag on a multi-year deal but spreading out the term to tamp down the AAV. Wacha’s total guarantee is the type of money one might’ve expected him to land over a two- or perhaps three-year term. By spreading it to four, the Padres could end up avoiding the third luxury-tax bracket. Wacha has a 6.06 ERA through three starts and posted an ERA of 4.76 or worse each season from 2019-21. If he can wind up replicating his strong 2022 results, the Padres might consider picking up their end of the option, but the likelier scenario is that they decline, leaving Wacha with a remaining three years and $19MM, but opt-outs after each season.
  • Chad Green, RHP, Blue Jays (three-year, $27MM club option; if declined, Green has $6.25MM player option; if both decline, team has two-year, $21MM option): Green may have the most convoluted contract of the entire free-agent class. That’s reflective both of his considerable talent and the broad range of outcomes as he works back from last May’s Tommy John surgery. We won’t know have an inkling of how this’ll play out until at least the summer, as Green needs to finish off his rehab. If he can return to peak form (1.83 ERA, 40.7% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate) for three or so months down the stretch, perhaps the Jays would actually consider the three-year, $27MM option. But that’s premium setup man money, and Green will be coming back from a year-long absence with a major surgery on his recent resume. He’ll have a $6.25MM player option if that three-year team option is declined, and that seems far more plausible. The two-year, $21MM option if both parties decline their first options feels only slightly more viable than the Jays’ original 3/27 decision.

Looking At The Padres’ Rotation Options

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The Padres have been quite aggressive in recent years on all fronts, from signing free agents to trading for stars and extending their own players. That has shot their budget up to record heights, with Roster Resource currently estimating their payroll at $250MM. Up until a few years ago, they had only barely nudged past the $100MM mark, jumping to $174MM in 2021 and $211MM last year, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

Despite all that aggression, they’re going into the season with uncertainty in their rotation, both in the short-term and long-term. They should have a strong front three this year in Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Blake Snell. That leaves two question marks at the back, since Mike Clevinger and Sean Manaea reached free agency and signed elsewhere. Darvish and Snell are both slated to reach free agency after this year, opening up more holes in the future. MacKenzie Gore’s inclusion in the Juan Soto trade also weakened the future outlook. So, who do they have on hand to step up and take these jobs? Let’s take a look at the candidates.

Nick Martinez

Martinez, 32, spent four seasons in Japan and parlayed that into a four-year deal with the Padres going into 2022, a deal that allowed him to opt out after each season. Last year was a mixed bag for Martinez, as he logged 106 1/3 innings with a 3.47 ERA. That’s solid production overall but it came in the form of a 4.30 ERA over 52 1/3 innings as a starter and a 2.67 mark in 54 innings as a reliever.

Martinez opted out and re-signed with the club on another deal, this time on a three-year pact. The details are unusually complex as there are plenty of incentives, as well as a dual club/player option structure. Whether he can find better results as a starter this time around remains to be seen. It’s certainly a risk for the Friars but at least it seems he comes with the floor of helping out the bullpen.

Should Martinez truly establish himself as a starter, the club will be able to keep him around. Martinez will get paid a $10MM base salary this year and the team will then have to decide whether or not to trigger two $16MM club options for 2024 and 2025, essentially a two-year, $32MM extension. That affords them a bit more control over his future than his previous opt-out laden deal. However, if Martinez does not have a successful campaign and they turn down that option, he will get to decide whether or not to trigger two player options valued at $8MM each, essentially a two-year, $16MM extension. That gives the Friars upside and downside potential in the pact. Those dollar figures can also reportedly change based on incentives, though the exact details aren’t known.

Seth Lugo

Lugo, 33, is a somewhat similar situation to Martinez, as he could potentially wind up in the rotation or in the bullpen. He made 23 starts in 2017-18 but only seven since, largely working as a reliever. That move was at least partially motivated by a “slight” tear that was discovered in his right ulnar collateral ligament in 2017.

Regardless, Lugo has served as an effective reliever since then, posting a 3.56 ERA over the past two years, and there’s some hope that his five-pitch mix can help him transition back into a rotation. It’s another risky move that the Padres were willing to take, giving Lugo two years and $15MM, with Lugo able to opt-out after the first. He hasn’t topped 80 innings in a season since 2018 and it’s hard to know how smooth this switch will be.

If it goes well, there won’t be any long-term upside for the club, since Lugo will make a $7.5MM salary but can opt out of the same figure for 2024. If the experiment works, he’s likely to return to free agency and find a larger guarantee. If it fails, the Padres will still be on the hook for another season.

Adrián Morejón

Morejón, 24 in February, has long been one of the most exciting pitching prospects in the league. Baseball America placed him on their top 100 list for five straight years beginning in 2017. Various injuries slowed him during his ascent to the majors and he’s yet to even pitch 70 official innings in any season of his career, majors or minors or combined.

Tommy John surgery in April of 2021 wiped out most of that season. He returned to health in 2022 but pitched in relief. The club reportedly still views him as a starter but he will likely have workload concerns this year. Between the majors and the minors last year, he logged 47 1/3 frames. He should be able to push that up now that he’s further removed from the surgery, but getting to a full starter’s workload would be a lot to ask. He has just over three years of MLB service time now, giving him the ability to provide some long-term help to the club’s rotation if he stays healthy and makes good on his prospect pedigree in 2023.

Jay Groome

Groome, 24, was a 12th overall pick of the Red Sox in 2016. He was once a highly-touted prospect but has hit various speed bumps. Tommy John surgery wiped out his 2018 and most of his 2019, which was followed by the minors being canceled by the pandemic in 2020. He has since returned to health and posted decent results but with some of the prospect shine having worn off.

In 2022, which included a trade to the Padres in the Eric Hosmer deal, he pitched 144 innings between Double-A and Triple-A. The 3.44 ERA is nice, but his 22.8% strikeout rate is right around average and his 10.4% walk rate was on the concerning side. He’s yet to reach the majors and arguably has the greatest chance to provide future value to the club with his six seasons of control and one remaining option year.

Brent Honeywell Jr.

Honeywell, 28 in March, is also a former top prospect. A Rays draftee, he was on BA’s top 100 in five straight seasons from 2016-20. Similar to Morejón and Groome, injuries have prevented him from reaching his potential thus far. Tommy John surgery in 2018 put him on the shelf and he has dealt with various setbacks since then. He was healthy enough to toss 86 innings in 2021 between Tampa Bay and Triple-A Durham, with the club then dealing him to Oakland. However, more injury setbacks resulted in just 20 1/3 minor league innings for the A’s last year.

Honeywell seems to be healthy again at the moment, as he’s tossed 28 innings in the Dominican Winter League. His 0.96 ERA in that time seems to have been enough to impress the Padres, as they signed him to their 40-man roster last week. It would make for a terrific bounceback story if he were to finally put it all together, but it’s hard to bank on him after hardly pitching in the past five years. He still has less than a year of service time, giving the Padres plenty of upside if it all clicks, but Honeywell is also out of options and will have to produce in the big leagues right away to hang onto his roster spot.

Reiss Knehr/Pedro Avila/Ryan Weathers

These three are all on the 40-man roster and warrant a mention, though they are unlikely to be called upon except in an emergency. All three of them have gotten some big league time in recent seasons, getting fairly brief showings in swing roles. Weathers probably has the most upside of the trio since he’s just 23 whereas the others are going into their respective age-26 seasons. Weathers was considered a top 100 prospect going into 2021 but he has a 5.49 ERA in the big leagues so far and posted a 6.73 ERA in 123 Triple-A innings last year, getting bumped to the bullpen as the season wore on.

Wilmer Font

Font, 33 in May, is a real wild card. He was a journeyman in the majors for many years but went to Korea to play in the KBO in 2021. Over the last two years, he’s been pitching at an ace level for the SSG Landers. He made 25 starts in 2021 with a 3.46 ERA and then 28 starts last year with a 2.69 mark. In that latter season, he got strikeouts at a 23.3% rate, walking only 4.7% of batters faced and he got ground balls on 51.6% of balls in play.

Success overseas doesn’t always translate to success in the majors, but Font wouldn’t be the first pitcher to underwhelm in North America but then return after a breakout elsewhere, with Miles Mikolas and Merrill Kelly some of the recent examples. Font isn’t currently on the 40-man and will have to earn his way back into the mix but he will be an interesting one to watch.

Julio Teheran/Aaron Brooks

These two veterans have also been brought aboard on minor league deals. Teheran spent 2022 in Indy ball and the Mexican League, posting some decent numbers in 13 starts between various clubs. He then went to the Dominican for winter ball and has posted a 3.49 ERA through eight starts there. He had a solid run with the Braves earlier in his career but got lit up in 2020 with a 10.05 ERA and then was injured for most of 2021.

Brooks was great in the KBO in 2020 and 2021, posting a 2.79 ERA over 36 starts in that time. However, his attempted return to the majors didn’t go well. He made five relief appearances for the Cardinals with a 7.71 ERA and got outrighted to the minors. In 15 Triple-A appearances, 13 starts, his ERA was 5.56.

All told, the Padres have lots of options here but all of them have question marks. There’s a handful of faded prospects who still need to put injury concerns in the rearview mirror and another handful of veteran swingmen who still might end up better suited to the bullpen than the rotation. Musgrove-Darvish-Snell gives them a strong front three, meaning the Padres only really need a couple of these guys to step up. On the other hand, they are one injury away from someone in this group suddenly being in the #3 slot.

The Padres could always supplement their staff between now and Opening Day, but recent reporting has suggested they don’t have much more payroll space to work with. If they want to go the trade route, there are certainly options, such as the Marlins having plenty of arms available and the Brewers perhaps in a similar boat.

Padres Sign Seth Lugo

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Dec. 22: The Padres have officially announced Lugo’s signing.

Dec. 19, 1:33pm: Lugo will be guaranteed a bit more than $15MM on the contract and can opt out of the deal following the 2023 season, tweets Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic. Heyman adds that the deal pays Lugo $7.5MM in 2023 before he’ll decide on a $7.5MM player option for 2024.

1:13pm: The Padres are finalizing a contract with free-agent righty Seth Lugo, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets the two sides have agreed to a deal. The Post’s Joel Sherman adds that the Padres plan for Lugo to join the starting rotation. San Diego and the division-rival Dodgers were reportedly the two likeliest landing spots for the Ballengee Group client.

Lugo, 33, has been a reliable member of the Mets’ bullpen for the past two seasons but has ample starting experience in his career and had been hoping to land with a team that would give him an opportunity to start. The Padres can likely offer just such an opportunity, as the fifth spot in their rotation behind Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish, Blake Snell and Nick Martinez is currently unsettled. Left-hander and former top prospect Adrian Morejon had previously been seen as a front-runner for that spot, but he’ll now act as a depth option alongside minor league hurlers Ryan Weathers, Jay Groome, Pedro Avila and Reiss Knehr.

Over the past two seasons in the Mets’ bullpen, Lugo has turned in a 3.56 ERA with a 26.6% strikeout rate against a 7.9% walk rate and a 44.4% ground-ball rate. His average four-seamer has clocked in at 94.4 mph in that time, and while it’s possible that velocity will dip a bit when working in longer stints, Lugo has far more secondary offerings than the standard reliever. In addition to that four-seamer, he’ll also throw a plus curveball, a sinker, an occasional slider and a more seldom-used changeup.

That repertoire of four, if not five pitches, surely emboldened some teams to consider him as a potential addition to the rotation. Lugo has made 38 starts in his career — all of which has been spent with the Mets to this point — and once looked as though he might have a chance to solidify himself on the starting staff in Queens. However, a “slight” tear of his right elbow’s ulnar collateral ligament back in 2017 derailed his season.

The tear was minimal enough that surgery was not recommended, however. Lugo received a platelet-rich plasma injection, opted for a rest-and-rehab approach, and returned to the mound as a reliever in 2018. By the time required surgery to remove a bone spur from the elbow in 2021, his surgeon remarked that he was “impressed with how [the UCL] wound up” (link via MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo).

With a clean bill of health and some quality recent results out of the ’pen, Lugo becomes an interesting upside candidate in the fifth spot of the Padres’ rotation. Moving him to the bullpen will always be there as a safety net, but Lugo has a 4.35 ERA in 194 career innings as a starter, and those numbers are skewed by a disastrous showing in the shortened 2020 season. From 2016-18, Lugo tossed 168 1/3 innings as a starter and recorded a more palatable 4.06 ERA. He hasn’t seen an enormous spike in opponents’ productivity when facing them a second or third time in a game; in fact, his opponents’ numbers have actually worsened when facing him a second/third time — though it’s unlikely that trend will continue.

Lugo’s $7.5MM annual salary will push the Padres’ 2023 payroll north of $240MM, while the team’s projected luxury-tax ledger will jump just north of $262MM, per Roster Resource. The Padres are currently lined up to exceed the tax threshold for a third consecutive season. As such, they’re paying a 50% penalty on the first $20MM by which they exceed the $233MM first-tier barrier, and a 62% overage on the next $20MM. The Friars were already more than $20MM over the tax line, so they’ll pay a 62% overage on Lugo’s $7.5MM AAV — a sum of $4.65MM.

Such penalties are seemingly of little consequence to an ultra-aggressive Padres club that has succeeded in high-profile pursuits of Juan Soto, Josh Hader and Xander Bogaerts in the past six months alone. Owner Peter Seidler appears steadfastly committed to his “championship at all costs” mindset, even if that means spending a total of $12.15MM (salary and luxury hit combined) on a fifth starter while including the downside (for the team) of a 2024 player option.

It’s a nice deal for Lugo, who’ll command the same type of guarantee many setup men of his caliber receive in free agency — but with the opportunity to opt back into free agency a year from now if the rotation experiment works out. Even if Lugo is ultimately moved to the ’pen for one reason or another, so long as he continues at his prior pace with the Mets, he could even opt out and land a larger commitment as a pure reliever next winter. And, of course, if he ends up injured or sees his performance completely crater, he’ll have the security of a substantial salary already locked in for the 2024 season.

Dodgers, Padres Among Teams Pursuing Seth Lugo

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Former Mets righty Seth Lugo has drawn interest from a wide range of clubs this winter, hoping to land an opportunity as a starting pitcher wherever he signs. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that the Dodgers and Padres are the likeliest landing spots at this point, though the Nationals have been involved to a lesser degree. Ken Rosenthal and Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic, meanwhile, reported over the weekend that the Dodgers are in the mix for Lugo and would indeed likely build him up as a starter.

Between Los Angeles and San Diego, the latter has a clearer path to rotation innings, if the Padres indeed have interest in giving Lugo a look as a starting pitcher. Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish, Blake Snell and Nick Martinez are expected to occupy the top four spots in the rotation, but the No. 5 spot is generally unsettled. Former top prospect Adrian Morejon seems the likeliest option, but Ryan Weathers, Pedro Avila and Jay Groome are all on the 40-man roster as well.

Over in Los Angeles, it’s a slightly more crowded situation. Clayton Kershaw re-signed on a one-year deal, rejoining Julio Urias, Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May in a projected rotation that was largely rounded out by the Dodgers’ recent signing of Noah Syndergaard. That said, both May and Gonsolin missed substantial time due to injury in 2022. May missed the first three-plus months recovering from 2020 Tommy John surgery, while Gonsolin was slowed late in the year by forearm troubles. He still made 24 starts and tallied 130 1/3 innings, but May logged just 30 regular-season frames and will probably have his workload monitored. Prospects like Ryan Pepiot, Bobby Miller and Michael Grove could provide depth even without an additional veteran signing, though.

As for the Nats, while Heyman suggests they’re no longer prominent players for Lugo, he’d be a similar signing to their recent addition of Trevor Williams. Beyond the fact that both Williams and Lugo pitched for the Mets this past season, both have been used as relievers recently but carry a starter’s repertoire, making them intriguing buy-low options in that regard. That said, the Nats now have Stephen Strasburg, Patrick Corbin, Williams and youngsters MacKenzie Gore, Josiah Gray and Cade Cavalli all as rotation options.

Lugo, 33, has been shuttled between the Mets’ rotation and bullpen multiple times in his career but has been primarily a reliever in 2021-22. He’s notched a solid 3.56 ERA with a 26.6% strikeout rate, 7.9% walk rate and 44% ground-ball rate in that time, averaging 94.4 mph with his fastball and generally sitting at or near the top of the league in terms of spin rate on his curveball. More broadly, Lugo has long been a quality member of the relief corps in Queens; he’s totaled exactly 300 innings out of the bullpen and boasts a 2.91 ERA in that time.

That said, Lugo has a four-seamer, sinker, curveball, slider and seldom-used changeup — a deep arsenal for a relief pitcher that could lend itself to a return to the rotation. He was hit hard working out of the rotation in the shortened 2020 season, but Lugo has a 4.35 ERA in 194 career innings as a starter. He’s missed more bats out of the bullpen, as one might expect, but his walk rate as a starter is slightly better than as a reliever and Lugo’s opponents haven’t seen dramatic spikes in production when facing him for a second or even third time in a game.

In addition to the Dodgers, Padres and Nats, Lugo has also reportedly drawn at least some degree of interest from the Angels, Red Sox and Tigers.

Latest On Tigers’ Offseason Targets

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The Tigers have a lot of upgrades to make following a 96-loss season, and the club is exploring several veteran options on the free agent market.  Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports that such players as Seth Lugo, Adam Frazier, Brian Anderson, and Edwin Rios have all drawn interest from the Tigers, and Wil Myers is also on the radar, but “the Tigers aren’t viewed as a frontrunner for Myers.”  As for players who have already landed elsewhere, Detroit also had interest in Jace Peterson before he signed with the Athletics during the Winter Meetings.

Signing any of the available players would add some experience to the lineup and address at least one position on a roster with plenty of uncertainty.  Third base is open after Jeimer Candelario was non-tendered, and Tigers manager A.J. Hinch told Petzold and other reporters during the Winter Meetings that second base playing time may also be available, depending on where Jonathan Schoop is utilized.  Hinch suggested that Schoop could also see time at first base or third base, apart from just the keystone.

Realistically, Schoop is more likely to spend most of his time on the right side of the diamond, given that his big league third base experience consists of 133 2/3 innings with the Orioles back in 2014, and a single inning at the hot corner in 2021.  Schoop (like many Detroit hitters) is also coming off a dismal year at the plate, and since he is only under contract through 2023, might not be in the long-term plans of new president of baseball operations Scott Harris.

Frazier has mostly played second base throughout his career, but he has also bounced around to both corner outfield positions, and a smattering of games at third base, shortstop, and center field.  Signing Frazier would allow the Tigers some flexibility in planning the lineup, as Frazier or Schoop or rookie Ryan Kreidler could be shuffled around the infield as matchups dictate, and Frazier could also chip in as part of the outfield mix.

Of course, Frazier also didn’t hit much in 2022, batting .238/.301/.311 with three homers over 602 plate appearances with the Mariners.  Since the start of the 2020 season, Frazier has a 95 wRC+ and a .266/.329/.362 slash line over 1471 PA with the Pirates, Padres, and Mariners, and much of his production in that stretch was concentrated within a fantastic three-month stretch with Pittsburgh early in the 2021 campaign (which helped Frazier earn an All-Star nod).

Despite these struggles, Frazier is looking for a two-year contract, according to Petzold.  An argument can be made that Frazier (who turns 31 later this week) might still be worth such a commitment since he is a strong defender, and he has consistently been one of baseball’s tougher hitters to strike out.  While Frazier’s extreme contact doesn’t result in many hard-hit balls, the potential is there for Frazier to become a very productive hitter if he can just barrel the ball with more consistency.  Given how the Tigers had one of the highest strikeout rates of any team in baseball in 2022, simply getting a contact hitter of any ilk might also help Detroit’s offensive woes.

Anderson and Rios were respectively non-tendered by the Marlins and Dodgers, and while both players have experience at other positions (Anderson mostly in right field, Rios at first base), the Tigers would probably view either as candidates to take over from Candelario at third base.  Like Frazier, these two are also looking to bounce back from underwhelming seasons, as Anderson and Rios both missed time to injury.

After posting solid numbers in 2018-20, it seemed like Anderson was on his way to becoming a building block in Miami before injuries cut into his playing time in each of the last two seasons.  Anderson hit .266/.350/.436 (115 wRC+) over 1419 PA from 2018-20, but those numbers dropped to a 93 wRC+ and a .233/.321/.359 slash line over 647 PA in 2021-22.

Rios is an intriguing wild card option, as he owns a career 112 wRC+ but only over 291 career PA in the majors.  The Dodgers used Rios as a part-time player for four seasons, and while it is quite possible he might’ve earned more playing time on a less star-studded team, Los Angeles seemingly never saw Rios as more than a spare part.  Injuries also played a factor, as Rios missed most of the 2021 campaign due to shoulder surgery, and a hamstring tear last season resulted in a trip to the 60-day injured list.

While it doesn’t seem like Myers will be arriving in Detroit, he is an on-paper fit for playing time as a right fielder, DH, and first baseman.  Spencer Torkelson will naturally get every opportunity for regular at-bats at first base next season, but Schoop might also get some first-base time, and Miguel Cabrera and Austin Meadows will get DH at-bats.  A player like Myers would be an option for right field when Meadows is getting a DH day, plus Myers could also shift over to left field.

The Tigers are the latest of many teams linked to Lugo’s market, and Detroit is one of the clubs with interest in Lugo as a starting pitcher.  The right-hander has worked exclusively as a reliever in three of the last four seasons with the Mets, and he hasn’t been a true full-time starter since 2017.  However, Lugo has kept his arm relatively loose as a swingman and multi-inning reliever, and naturally a move back to rotation work could be very lucrative as he enters free agency for the first time.

Given how the Tigers were crushed by pitching injuries in 2022, the club can offer plenty of opportunity to Lugo as it looks to rebuild its rotation.  With so much interest in his services, it isn’t hard to imagine that Lugo could land a two-year contract, as a team could view him as a starting candidate for 2023 and (if things don’t go well) at worst a reliever for 2024.  If Lugo succeeds as a starter and the Tigers’ younger arms all return healthy down the road, such a crowded-rotation scenario counts as a nice problem to have for the team in the future.

Detroit already brought back Matt Boyd on a one-year contract, with Boyd also looking for a move back to starting pitching.  The Tigers’ current rotation lines up as Eduardo Rodriguez, Matt Manning, Spencer Turnbull, and Boyd, with Joey Wentz, Tyler Alexander, Alex Faedo, and Beau Brieske all in competition for that fifth starter’s job.

In the bigger picture, none of Detroit’s free agent targets look to receive more than a one- or perhaps a two-year deal at most.  This speaks to Harris’ apparent strategy (or ownership’s preference) of avoiding any big immediate expenditures, as the Tigers flopped after last winter’s major spending spree.  The plan for 2023 might be for Harris and the Tigers to patch holes with some veteran additions, and then see how the roster — both the younger core and veteran stars like Rodriguez or Javier Baez — can collectively regroup after the disastrous 2022 season.

Seth Lugo Drawing Widespread Interest

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DECEMBER 7: The Angels, Nationals and Dodgers are also in the market, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic.

DECEMBER 6, 8:01pm: The Red Sox are also expressing interest in Lugo, reports Chris Cotillo of MassLive (on Twitter).

DECEMBER 6, 6:39pm: Right-hander Seth Lugo has been drawing interest as a starting pitcher and Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports that working as a starter is Lugo’s preference as well, with the Padres one of several teams interested in him.

It’s been a while since Lugo has been tried out in a rotation role for more than a brief stretch. His career high for starts in a big league season is 18, which came back in 2017. Since that time, he’s been primarily working out of the bullpen, serving as an effective reliever for the Mets.

In 278 career games, only 38 of them have been starts, but Lugo has a career 3.48 ERA, 24.8% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate and 44.1% ground ball rate. He’s fared much better out of the ’pen, as his ERA is 2.91 there while 4.35 as a starter, with more strikeouts as a reliever to match.

Despite that split, as mentioned, it’s been quite some time since Lugo’s been given an extended stretch in the rotation. That means most of those stats came from Lugo’s first two years in the big leagues, when he made 26 of those 38 career starts. It’s possible he’s capable of producing better results now that he has more experience. He also has a larger pitch mix than the average reliever, something that could help him move through a lineup a few times. Last year, he had four pitches that he threw at least 13.7% of the time, with his curveball leading the way at 33.5%, followed by his four-seamer at 29.3%, his sinker at 21.9% and his slider at 13.7%. He also has a changeup that he mixed in 1.6% of the time, though it’s been 7.1% for his career.

For the Padres, they lost a couple members of their rotation to free agency in Mike Clevinger and Sean Manaea, while also trading MacKenzie Gore to the Nationals. Nick Martinez opted out of his contract but was quickly re-signed and seems to have a chance of retaking a rotation spot himself, after getting bumped to the bullpen. They currently have Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Blake Snell in the front three spots. It would be surprising to see them go into the season with the last two spots in their rotation dedicated to unproven options like Martinez and Lugo, especially when they just reportedly offered Trea Turner $342MM. But it’s possible they could also add a fourth starter and have those Martinez and Lugo battle for the fifth spot with one of them going to the bullpen if everyone is healthy. Though Lugo reportedly prefers to start, it’s unknown how he would value a non-guaranteed starting role on a contender like the Padres against a clearer path to starting on a less-competitive team.

San Diego’s payroll limits are an ongoing question. As mentioned, they just made a massive offer to Turner, but some reporting indicates they were willing to make an exception for him and won’t necessarily dedicate those resources to other players. As of right now, Roster Resource calculates their competitive balance tax figure at $230MM, just barely under the lowest CBT threshold of $233MM. With the club still seeking to upgrade in the rotation and elsewhere, going over the line seems inevitable. Lugo isn’t likely to break the bank as a back-end rotation candidate but every dollar over the line will count. Since the Padres are set to be a third-time payor, they will be subject to a 50% tax on all spending over the line and even higher penalties if they go over by $20MM or more.

Pitching Notes: Brash, Lugo, Red Sox, Raley

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Matt Brash’s debut in the majors resulted in a 4.44 ERA over 50 2/3 innings, with pronounced splits as a starter (7.65 ERA) and as a reliever (2.35), since returning from a minor league demotion in a relief role worked wonders for Brash’s effectiveness.  Unsurprisingly, “Brash has generated a ton of [trade] interest after his rookie season,” Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times writes, “but it would take a lot” for the Mariners to consider moving the 24-year-old.  If anything, the M’s have faith that Brash could still be part of a rotation, given the club’s plan to stretch him out for Spring Training.

Brash’s 14.9% walk rate was the third-highest of any pitcher in baseball with at least 50 innings pitched in 2022, and he also allowed a lot of hard contact.  On the plus side, the hard-throwing Brash had an above-average 27.9% strikeout rate, and elite curveball spin to go along with excellent whiff and barrel rates.  There’s a lot to like about a young pitcher who still has only 179 1/3 combined innings on his record at the Major and minor league levels, and rival teams are naturally seeing if the win-now Mariners might be open to moving a younger pitcher for a more established MLB-level player.  Nothing can truly be ruled out given the aggressiveness of Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto, yet it’s probably likelier that one of Marco Gonzales or Chris Flexen are dealt from the Mariners’ pitching mix.

More pitching-related items from around baseball….

  • Back on November 14, The Athletic’s Will Sammon reported that the Mets weren’t one of the many teams who had checked in with free agent righty Seth Lugo.  Almost two weeks later, the two sides still haven’t been in touch, and “the Mets do not view Lugo as a starter,” Mike Puma of the New York Post reports.  Lugo is reportedly open to signing as either a starter or as a reliever, and at least some of the other suitors have some interest in Lugo’s potential as a rotation piece.  Speculatively, this could translate to at least an incentive-heavy contract for Lugo, with more bonus money available if he ends up making more starts than relief appearances.  It could be that the Mets simply don’t value Lugo at this price, and are ready to look elsewhere in their search for bullpen help.
  • The Red Sox pursued left-hander Brooks Raley in free agency last year, and offered Raley a two-year deal worth roughly $8MM, according to The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier.  Raley ended up signing a two-year, $10MM contract with the Rays, and then had a strong season for Boston’s division rival (Raley’s year included a 0.00 ERA over six innings against the Sox).  Between missing out on Raley and the general lack of quality in Boston’s 2022 bullpen, Speier writes that the Red Sox “came to regret not pursuing relief help more aggressively,” and opines whether or not the team might put more emphasis on relievers this winter.  Chaim Bloom hasn’t spent much on relief pitching in his first three offseasons as the Red Sox chief baseball officer, and thus far this winter, Speier notes that the Sox haven’t yet paid much attention to the relief market, with a larger (and understandable) focus on starting pitching and re-signing Xander Bogaerts.
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