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Seth Lugo

AL Central Notes: Lugo, Royals, Twins, Vazquez, Kelly

By Mark Polishuk | November 25, 2023 at 9:54am CDT

Before Seth Lugo signed with the Padres last winter, the Royals were “reportedly” one of the other teams interested, the Kansas City Star’s Jaylon Thompson writes.  That doesn’t necessarily mean that K.C. has continued that interest now that Lugo is a free agent again, yet given the Royals’ need for starting pitching and the apparent fact that the majority of the league has at least checked in on Lugo’s services, it stands to reason that the Royals still have the right-hander on their radar.

The price tag will be significantly higher for Lugo this time around.  After inking a two-year, $15MM deal with San Diego last winter, Lugo re-established himself as a starting pitcher and posted a solid 3.57 ERA over 146 1/3 innings in 2023.  This puts Lugo in line for at least the three years and $42MM that MLB Trade Rumors has projected, and it seems entirely possible that he’ll land an even bigger payday given the broad interest in his services.  Kansas City might be hard pressed to land Lugo if it turns into a pure bidding war, yet as Thompson notes, the Royals already know they won’t be vying for the most expensive free agent pitchers.  Some teams might see Lugo as a bit more of a backup plan if they can’t land a top-tier starter, whereas the Royals are theoretically more able to focus all their attention on the 34-year-old early.

More from around the AL Central…

  • The Twins’ roster is broken down by The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman and Dan Hayes, including some talk of potential offseason moves and target areas.  With Christian Vazquez’s name recently surfacing in trade rumors, Gleeman and Hayes agree that a deal is possible, but Gleeman notes that Minnesota would likely have to eat a good portion of the $20MM remaining on Vazquez’s contract to facilitate a deal, and thus “trading him may not even save that much money, in which case there’s really no reason to do it.”  Hayes thinks a Vazquez trade might be more likely to come closer to midseason, theoretically after Vazquez has rebuilt some of his value with a solid performance in the first few months of the 2024 campaign.
  • Sticking with the Twins, their plan to cut payroll has been the big headline of the Minnesota offseason.  In a mailbag piece with readers, Bobby Nightengale of the Minneapolis Star Tribune hears from a player agent that the Twins will be much more likely to pursue upgrades via trades before they “seriously” look at free agent signings.  Offering backloaded contracts to free agents also doesn’t make much sense, either for the free agents themselves or for the Twins, as Nightengale notes that Minnesota will want to save future money for its own players (i.e. for arbitration raises or contractually-manded raises).
  • It has been a tough few years for Carson Kelly, as injuries and a lack of performance have sidetracked the career of the former top prospect and seeming breakout catcher during his days with the Cardinals and Diamondbacks.  Kelly signed with the Tigers after being released by the D’Backs in August, and the catcher will be staying in Motown as Jake Rogers’ backup after the Tigers exercised their $3.5MM club option on his services for 2024.  With his immediate future now secure, Kelly tells Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press that the next step is to spend the offseason fixing his swing mechanics, as well as working on catching from a one-knee stance as opposed to a traditional crouch.  “It’s for stealing strikes at the bottom of the zone, and I’m already in a better position to block….It just puts me in a better position to react to wherever the ball is,” Kelly said.
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Seth Lugo Drawing Widespread Interest

By Darragh McDonald | November 23, 2023 at 12:45pm CDT

Multiple reports have indicated that the demand for starting pitching is huge this offseason and one player that could benefit is right-hander Seth Lugo. In an appearance on Foul Territory, Robert Murray of FanSided reports that Lugo’s market is extensive and “more than half the league” has checked in on him.

Lugo, 34, spent most of his career in the bullpen with the Mets but reached free agency last winter and drew plenty of interest from clubs who thought he could return to the rotation, as he had done years before. The Padres were ultimately the one to take a chance on Lugo, signing him to a two-year, $15MM deal with an opt-out opportunity midway through.

The experiment worked quite well, as Lugo was ultimately able to throw 146 1/3 innings over 26 starts. He missed about a month due to a calf strain, but apart from that, the larger workload didn’t seem to impact his results. He posted an earned run average of 3.57, striking out 23.2% of batters, limiting walks to a 6% rate and keeping 45.2% of balls in play on the ground.

Now that he has proven himself capable of filling a starting role, his market should be even stronger this offseason than it was a year ago, making it an easy decision for him to opt out and retry free agency. Murray notes that Lugo’s market is vast and that he would not be surprised to see Lugo get a three- or four-year deal. At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Lugo for a three-year, $42MM pact, which would be $14MM per year.

Given his age, it would be hard for Lugo to go too far beyond that. But that ceiling is perhaps why so many clubs are interested. Aaron Nola already secured himself a seven-year, $172MM deal to return to the Phillies and nine-figure deals should also be available for guys like Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Jordan Montgomery. The appetite for starting pitching is high but not every club will be able or willing to pay those kinds of prices, leaving them looking to guys like Lugo.

To this point in the offseason, Lugo has been specifically linked to the Tigers but it seems his market is far wider than that. He will likely require a modest average annual value, relative to some of the other free agents, which makes him a speculative fit for a far greater number of clubs. Even mid- or small-market teams need to give out eight-figure contracts from time to time and the widespread demand should help Lugo earn a much greater guarantee than he got a year ago. It was recently reported that nearly half the league had checked in on Yamamoto, but he is widely expected to get $200MM or more. Since Lugo is perhaps looking at getting a quarter of that, it stands to reason that he has even more clubs calling him up.

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How Aggressive Will The Tigers Be This Winter?

By Steve Adams | November 22, 2023 at 4:35pm CDT

The ill-fated Miguel Cabrera extension is off the books in Detroit, leading to the most payroll flexibility the team has had in quite some time. As it stands, the only three players on guaranteed contracts for the 2024 season are Javier Baez, Mark Canha and Carson Kelly. That trio combines for $40MM in guaranteed salary. Only Baez is signed beyond the 2024 season. Detroit also has a small arbitration class. Left-hander Tarik Skubal, righty Casey Mize, catcher Jake Rogers and outfielder Akil Baddoo project to earn a combined $7.5MM, per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.

Suffice it to say, there’s ample payroll space available in the Motor City. Detroit trotted out a payroll as high as $200MM back in 2017, albeit under the ownership of the late Mike Ilitch. Since his son, Chris, took over as the team’s control person, the Tigers haven’t fielded an Opening Day payroll north of $135MM. Then again, the Tigers have been rebuilding for much of Chris’ time in charge of the club, so aggressive spending hasn’t typically on the radar.

Many Tigers fans entered the current offseason expecting some degree of change in that regard, however. The AL Central is perhaps the sport’s weakest division, and the Tigers have some interesting young players emerging to form a core group. Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene both took big steps forward in 2023. Skubal returned from flexor surgery and pitched like a genuine top-of-the-rotation arm. Reese Olson looks like a mid-rotation piece. Kerry Carpenter has swatted 26 homers and hit .277/.334/.473 in his first 149 big league games. Former No. 1 overall pick Casey Mize will come back from Tommy John surgery in 2024. Jason Foley, Will Vest, Tyler Holton and Alex Lange all had nice years in the bullpen (Lange’s command issues notwithstanding). It’s easy to see the reasons for optimism.

At the same time, that doesn’t necessarily portend a return to the Tigers’ former status as one of the league’s most aggressive offseason spenders. For one thing, the now-former front office regime helmed by Al Avila attempted to reestablish the Tigers as just that when signing Baez and Eduardo Rodriguez. The former hasn’t worked out at all and now stands as one of baseball’s most immovable/undesirable contracts. The latter performed well enough to opt out of the remaining three years and $49MM after an uneven tenure in Detroit.

New president of baseball operations Scott Harris will surely be wary of further saddling the team with unwanted contracts. His most recent organization — the Giants, where he was GM — has a recent track record of clearly preferring shorter-term, manageable commitments in free agency. They haven’t inked a free agent for more than three years under Farhan Zaidi’s watch as president of baseball operations. That doesn’t mean Harris will operate from the exact same playbook, but it’s notable context nonetheless.

To that end, the general expectation surrounding the Tigers this winter has been that the team will at least one, if not two arms in free agency. Adding a bat to the middle of the lineup also seems like a sensible enough fit. The question is: to what extent are the Tigers willing to spend?

Recent reports have indicated that the Tigers have interest in both Seth Lugo and Kenta Maeda, for instance, but Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press wrote this morning that the Tigers prefer Lugo on a one-year deal. He’s understandably seeking a three-year pact after a breakout 2023 campaign. Petzold also reports that rebound candidate Luis Severino is on the Tigers’ radar. He’s likely to sign a one-year deal this winter. Maeda is generally expected to sign for no more than two years. Between those three targets, a preference for shorter-term additions seems to be on the table for the Tigers.

Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic frames things similarly in his latest mailbag, writing that the Tigers seem likelier to dish out multiple short-term deals — similar to last year’s one-year pact with Michael Lorenzen — than they are to ink a notable arm on a heftier deal. The Tigers reportedly checked in on Lance Lynn before he signed a one-year, $11MM deal with the Cardinals. Stavenhagen suggests that contracts of that nature (and the Cardinals’ one-year, $12MM deal with Kyle Gibson) are roughly what one could expect the Tigers to offer in free agency. Similarly, he writes that Canha could be the team’s most significant position-player acquisition this winter.

There’s no firm indication that the Tigers won’t be a bit more aggressive in free agency and pursue some notable names on multi-year deals. Unexpected market circumstances can always emerge, perhaps leading a team to land a major free agent they never expected early in the winter. The Twins surely didn’t enter the 2021-22 offseason expecting to sign Carlos Correa, for instance, and the Tigers’ ample flexibility leaves them open for opportunistic adds of that nature, should they arise.

The trade market also can’t be discounted as a means of adding some notable talent. Harris and his staff proved over the past year that they’re plenty willing to make deals with other clubs. Since the beginning of last offseason, Detroit has traded Joe Jimenez to Atlanta and Gregory Soto and Michael Lorenzen to Philadelphia (in separate swaps). The Tigers picked up Zach McKinstry in a spring trade with the Cubs earlier this year and added Canha in a deal with Milwaukee just a few weeks ago. It’s perfectly reasonable to think they might be more active in trades than in free agency; some combination of both avenues is likely at the end of the day.

However, those hoping for a bigger splash may want to look back to Harris’ comments earlier this month when asked about having sufficient resources to sign a premier free agent (link via Chris McCosky of the Detroit News): “If we feel like we are close enough to where a big free agent pushes us over the edge, sure, we have an ownership that’s going to support us to be able to do that. But, as this game has taught us time and time again, sometimes, teams over-estimate their proximity to being a team that’s right on the verge of the playoffs, and they spend a lot of money and it doesn’t push them forward. It pushes them back. We have to be really careful.”

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Tigers Interested In Seth Lugo

By Darragh McDonald | November 22, 2023 at 10:25am CDT

Nov. 22: Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports that while Lugo is indeed of interest to the Tigers, they prefer him on a one-year deal. Lugo is seeking a three-year guarantee this winter, per the report.

Nov. 20: The Tigers are interested in starting pitchers, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com. They reportedly checked in with right-hander Lance Lynn before he got his new deal with the Cardinals and Morosi adds that free agent righty Seth Lugo is of interest to the club.

Lugo, now 34, shifted to a starting gig in 2023 after many years of working as a reliever. He took to the switch with aplomb, throwing 146 1/3 innings over 26 starts with a 3.57 earned run average. He struck out 23.2% of batters faced, limited walks to a 6% clip and kept 45.2% of balls in play on the ground. He declined a $7.5MM player option to stick with the Padres for 2024 and MLBTR predicted he could land a three-year deal worth $42MM this offseason.

It’s plenty sensible that the Tigers are looking for rotation additions to make up for recent subtractions. Lefty Eduardo Rodriguez opted out of his deal while righty Spencer Turnbull was non-tendered, resulting in both of those players now being free agents. The remaining rotation definitely has some talent but it comes with question marks.

Lefty Tarik Skubal looked great in 2023, returning from flexor tendon surgery to put up an ERA of 2.80, but he made just 15 starts and tossed only 80 1/3 innings. Even if he can stay healthy next year, he may push himself into workload concerns, having set career high of 149 1/3 frames in 2021. Matt Manning suffered a couple of foot fractures and was also limited to 15 starts in the most recent season. His 3.58 ERA looks fine at first glance but his 15.8% strikeout rate is way below league average and he benefited from an unsustainable .214 batting average on balls in play. He tossed 133 2/3 innings in the minors in 2019 but hasn’t reached that level since. Casey Mize missed all of 2023 recovering from Tommy John surgery.

Reese Olson had a solid debut but still has barely 100 innings of major league experience. Sawyer Gipson-Long has just four big league starts. Joey Wentz, Alex Faedo and Mason Englert are on the roster but had uninspiring results in 2023. Wilmer Flores and Keider Montero recently got added to the roster but haven’t debuted in the big leagues yet. Considering all of the variability here, it makes sense for the club to consider bringing in a stabilizing force.

The club was recently connected to Japanese righty Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but that seems like more a long shot considering he will surely require a nine-figure deal of some kind. President of baseball operations Scott Harris has been fairly cautious since taking over and there’s been little to indicate he’s planning to break from that right now. Lynn ultimately only required a one-year deal and Lugo’s next contract will be somewhat capped by his age.

Financially, there’s nothing stopping the Tigers from making whatever addition they decide upon. Roster Resource estimates their 2024 payroll at just $74MM. The figures from Cot’s Baseball Contracts had Detroit at $122MM on Opening Day in 2023 and $135MM the year before. Javier Báez is the only player under contract beyond 2024. It’s unknown exactly how much the club plans to spend this offseason but they have enough room to do a few things before they even come close to recent spending levels. If not Lugo, other pitchers that will likely sign short-term deals include Marcus Stroman, Jack Flaherty, Kenta Maeda, Michael Wacha and many more.

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Michael Wacha Opts Out; Padres Give Qualifying Offers to Blake Snell, Josh Hader

By Darragh McDonald | November 6, 2023 at 3:15pm CDT

The Padres have extended qualifying offers to free agent lefties Blake Snell and Josh Hader, reports AJ Cassavell of MLB.com. The club also announced a batch of transactions, which includes each of Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo and Nick Martinez electing free agency. Meanwhile, Matt Carpenter exercised his player option to stick with the club. Additionally, the club outrighted right-hander Nick Hernandez and claimed right-hander Jeremiah Estrada off waivers from the Cubs.

The decisions of Lugo and Martinez were previously reported, as was the news on Carpenter. As for Wacha, it was reported on the weekend that the club was declining a two-year option to retain him for 2024-25. Wacha then had the opportunity to trigger a $6.5MM player option for 2024 but has now turned that down.

Wacha signed a four-year deal with the Padres, though one with a convoluted structure. The club would first have to decide on a two-year, $32MM option for the 2024-25 seasons, which they declined. Wacha then had three straight player options which could have paid him $6.5MM in 2024 and then $6MM in the following two seasons. But he has now turned that down, leaving three years and $18.5MM on the table in search of a new deal.

Although he was largely injured and/or ineffective for much of the 2018 to 2021 period, Wacha has now had two straight solid seasons. He posted a 3.32 ERA with the Red Sox in 2022 and a 3.22 mark in his first season in San Diego. Injuries still limited his total volume of work, as he logged 127 1/3 innings for the Sox and 134 1/3 for the Friars, but the combination of workload and effectiveness was nonetheless the best form he’s showed in years.

He’ll now head back to free agency in search of his next deal. The starting pitching market is headlined by guys like Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Aaron Nola and Jordan Montgomery but Wacha will be somewhere in the tie of solid mid-rotation or back-end guys, alongside Lugo, Jack Flaherty and Mike Clevinger.

The fact that Snell and Hader received $20.325MM qualifying offers is no surprise. The two of them are going to be some of the top available free agents this winter, making them a lock to reject them, something recently highlighted by MLBTR. Snell posted a 2.25 earned run average in 2023 and could receive the second Cy Young Award of his career in the coming days. Hader has long been one of the most dominant relievers in the league and had a 1.28 ERA in the season that just ended. Both should be able to receive nine-figure contracts even with a QO attached.

Any impending free agent can receive a qualifying offer as long as they spent the entire season with just one club and haven’t received a QO before. If Hader and/or Snell sign with other clubs after rejecting the QO, the Padres will receive draft pick compensation.

The departures of Wacha, Snell, Lugo and Martinez will leave the Padres fairly short-handed in their rotation. They still have Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove but they are followed on the depth chart by unproven options like Matt Waldron, Jay Groome, Adrián Morejón and Pedro Avila. They will presumably be looking to add to that group but will have to do so while juggling significant financial concerns.

Hernandez, 29 next month, was just added to the roster in September. He made two appearances, allowing four earned runs in three innings, giving him a career ERA of 12.00 in that tiny sample. He threw 61 innings in the minors in 2023, split between Double-A and Triple-A, with a 3.84 ERA, 32.7% strikeout rate and 8.4% walk rate. Any of the 29 other clubs could have added him to their roster today but decided to pass.

Estrada, 25, made 17 appearances for the Cubs over the past two seasons with a 5.51 ERA in that time. His 25.9% strikeout rate is a bit above average but his 18.5% walk rate is concerning. That’s generally been a pattern in the minor leagues as well, with Estrada striking out 31.2% of hitters at Triple-A in 2023 but walking 18.8%. He is still optionable next year, so the Padres will add some pitching depth that comes with roster flexibility, while they will presumably try to help Estrada improve his control going forward.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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Seth Lugo Declines Player Option With Padres

By Anthony Franco | November 2, 2023 at 7:18pm CDT

Seth Lugo has declined a $7.5MM player option with the Padres, reports Ari Alexander of KPRC 2 (X link). He’s a free agent and will be permitted to commence negotiations with other teams on Monday.

This was one of the league’s easiest opt-out decisions. Lugo inked a two-year, $15MM guarantee last winter. A longtime reliever with the Mets, he prioritized finding a rotation job. Lugo sought to demonstrate he could hold up as a starter before getting back to the open market.

He did just that. The right-hander worked 146 2/3 innings across 26 starts, pitching to a 3.57 ERA. Lugo struck out a solid 23.2% of opposing hitters while keeping his walks to a tidy 6% clip. Now that he has established himself as a mid-rotation starter, he should find a much better guarantee than he had 12 months ago. Even a couple weeks from his 34th birthday, Lugo has a good case for a three-year pact.

The Padres could issue Lugo a $20.325MM qualifying offer. It’s questionable whether they’re willing to risk that kind of one-year salary in an offseason in which they’re expected to slice payroll. San Diego also faces the potential departures of Blake Snell, Michael Wacha and Nick Martinez (the latter two of whom have complicated option decisions in their contracts) from a rotation they’ll need to address over the coming months.

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Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions: Pitchers

By Darragh McDonald | October 30, 2023 at 7:27pm CDT

The World Series will be completed in less than a week, which means the offseason is imminent. Almost right away, some key decisions will have to be made. Within five days of the World Series ending, contract options will need to be either exercised or declined and clubs will also have to choose whether or not to issue qualifying offers to eligible players.

A player is eligible for a qualifying offer if they have never received a QO before and spent the entire season with the same club. The value of the QO changes annually, calculated by taking the average salary of the 125 highest-paid players in the league. That means it generally rises as salaries increase over time, with this year’s QO expected to land around $20.5MM. If a player receives and rejects a qualifying offer, he becomes a free agent. If he then signs elsewhere, the signing team is subject to draft pick forfeiture and possibly other penalties, while their previous club receives draft pick compensation.

MLBTR is taking a look at the candidates, with one post focusing on the position players and this one looking at the pitchers.

No-Doubters

  • Sonny Gray (Twins)
  • Josh Hader (Padres)
  • Aaron Nola (Phillies)
  • Shohei Ohtani (Angels)
  • Blake Snell (Padres)

These five are slam dunks to receive and reject the qualifying offer. Ohtani won’t pitch in 2024 after undergoing elbow surgery, but he is still expected to hit and will perhaps return to the mound in 2025. As one of the best hitters in baseball and the potential for two-way contributions down the road, he’s in line for a record-setting contract. Nola is coming off a down season relative to his own standards but has an excellent track record that will put him in line for a nine-figure deal even with the QO attached. Gray’s total earning power will be capped somewhat by the fact that he turns 34 in a week but his excellent work in 2023 should be able to get him a new deal around $20MM per year over multiple seasons. Snell just wrapped up an excellent campaign, finishing with a 2.25 ERA that could see him net a second career Cy Young award. That sets him up for a huge payday even after rejecting the QO. Hader has been one of the best relievers in the game for a long time and could challenge Edwin Díaz for the biggest contract ever for a reliever.

Special Case

  • Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers)

Kershaw has been eligible for a qualifying offer in each of the past two offseasons but didn’t receive one. That wasn’t a reflection of his performance but a sign of respect. In each case, Kershaw went into the winter not knowing if he wanted to come back to the Dodgers, jump to his hometown Rangers or retire. The Dodgers decided both times not to issue him the QO so that he wouldn’t have to make a rushed decision at the beginning of the offseason. Since Kershaw is once again undecided on his future, it seems fair to expect that the Dodgers will decline to extend the QO, though Kershaw would warrant one in a vacuum.

Possible Candidates

  • Seth Lugo (Padres)

Lugo spent most of his career working out of the bullpen but hit free agency a year ago and drew plenty of interest as a starter. The Padres eventually brought him aboard via a two-year deal with a $15MM guarantee and incentives, as well as an opt-out after the first season.

The righty made the most of the opportunity, making 26 starts and logging 146 1/3 innings with a 3.57 earned run average. He stuck out 23.2% of batters faced, walked 6% and kept the ball on the ground at a 45.2% clip. There were some concerns about Lugo’s ability to hold up over a full season, both since he hadn’t had that kind of workload before and because he had a slight tear of his UCL in 2017 that wasn’t surgically addressed. But in 2023, Lugo made just one trip to the injured list, missing just over a month due to a calf strain.

Now that Lugo has proof of concept as a starter, he should have greater earning power than he did a year ago, even though he’s about to turn 34. Turning down the one year and $7.5MM left on his deal should be an easy call, but then the Padres will have a more difficult choice. It would be hard for Lugo to turn down a 2024 salary more than twice what he made in the prior season, so there would be a decent chance he accepts a QO. With the club reportedly looking to cut payroll, they may not want to take that chance.

  • Kenta Maeda (Twins)

Maeda has had his ups and downs in recent years but is heading into free agency with some momentum. He posted a 2.70 ERA in 2020 but then that figure jumped to 4.66 in 2021 before he underwent internal brace surgery on his elbow. He missed all of 2022 and then struggled early in 2023. In his fourth start of the season, he was shelled by the Yankees, allowing 10 earned runs in three innings. He was then placed on the injured list with a triceps strain while sporting an ERA of 9.00 for the year.

But after getting healthy, his results were much better. He was activated from the IL in late June and made 17 more appearances the rest of the way. He tossed 88 1/3 innings with a 3.36 ERA, 29% strikeout rate and 7% walk rate. Though his ERA for the whole year finished at 4.23, it seems fair to conclude that the early-season injury inflated that number.

The righty has never had a massive salary locked in. When he initially came over from Japan, the Dodgers signed him to an incentive-laden deal that guaranteed him $25MM over eight years. That came in the form of a $1MM signing bonus, $3MM salary each year and $6.5MM in incentives available each season based on games started and innings pitched. If he suddenly had a $20.5MM guarantee in front of him for his age-36 season, that would likely be very tempting.

The Twins aren’t one of the top payroll teams under normal circumstances and may need to cut back spending due to uncertainty around their TV revenues. They may not want to blow a huge chunk of their budget right at the beginning of the offseason, especially when their rotation is already in decent shape with Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack and Louie Varland currently pencilled in.

  • Michael Wacha (Padres)

Wacha had some strong seasons earlier in his career with the Cardinals, but injuries became an issue more recently. He settled for a $3MM guarantee while joining the Mets for 2020, then was limited to 34 mediocre innings in the shortened season. The Rays took a shot on him in 2021 with another $3MM guarantee and he stayed healthy enough to log 124 2/3 innings with a 5.05 ERA. That relatively healthy campaign was enough to get him a one-year, $7MM deal with the Red Sox for 2022, and he then tossed 127 1/3 innings for that club with a 3.23 ERA.

He lingered on the open market for a while last offseason but eventually landed a four-year, $26MM guarantee from the Padres with a layered option structure. After the 2023 World Series, the Friars will have to decide whether or not to trigger two $16MM club options for 2024 and 2025, effectively a two-year, $32MM deal. If they decline, Wacha has a $6.5MM player option for 2024 and then $6MM player options for 2025 and 2026.

The righty is coming off another decent season. Though his shoulder landed him on the IL this year, just as it had in 2022 and 2020, he was able to make 24 starts and throw 134 1/3 innings with a 3.22 ERA. His 22.4% strikeout rate and 7.8% walk rate were both close to league average, though he may have benefitted from a .266 batting average on balls in play and 79.7% strand rate. His 3.89 FIP and 4.43 SIERA suggest his ERA might not be wholly sustainable.

As mentioned in the Lugo section above, the Padres are facing a budget crunch. Though they are likely pleased with Wacha’s results in 2023, would they want to give him a pay raise by triggering that option? If they pass on that, Wacha would likely turn down his player option and return to free agency. He would be eligible for a qualifying offer at that point, which would be a higher salary than the club option but on a shorter commitment. The Padres effectively have to decide between 1/20 or 2/32 or simply letting Wacha walk.

Long Shot

  • Frankie Montas (Yankees)

Some fans of the Yankees might shudder at the thought of the club bringing back Montas at a higher salary, but it’s not a completely crazy idea. Though he was hurt or ineffective from the moment he donned pinstripes, he’s not too far removed from some strong results. From 2019 to 2021, he posted an ERA of 3.51 over 336 innings pitched. In that time, he struck out 26.3% of batters faced, issued walks at a 7.3% clip and kept 43.7% of batted balls on the ground. Among pitchers with at least 300 innings pitched in that time, that ERA ranked him 21st in the majors. Even in 2022, prior to the infamous trade, he was still quite good. He registered an ERA of 3.18 in his 19 starts for the A’s that year.

Players returning from injury absences can often still find themselves big salaries on short-term deals. Noah Syndergaard got one year and $21MM from the Angels after missing most of 2020 and 2021 rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. Corey Kluber got $11MM from the Yankees even though he was 35 years old and made just eight appearances over the two previous campaigns. James Paxton got $10MM from the Red Sox under similar circumstances.

The Yankees have a couple of long-term contracts in their rotation with Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón. The latter hasn’t worked out well so far, with Rodón injured for much of 2023. The club needs rotation reinforcements with Michael King, Clarke Schmidt and Nestor Cortes pencilled into the back end, each of whom comes with some question marks. They could add another marquee free agent, but maybe they’d prefer to take a short-term flier on a player they have obviously liked for a long time, giving up four prospects to acquire him and Lou Trivino just over a year ago. They then agreed to a $7.5MM arbitration salary for 2023 even as questions about his shoulder lingered.

Though there’s an argument for the possibility, it ultimately seems like the odds are against this happening. The Montas trade has gone so poorly, both from an on-field perspective and a PR one, that it’s hard to envision the club doubling down. If Montas doesn’t receive the QO, he will likely be fielding one-year offers slightly below the $20.5MM salary range.

Ineligible

  • Jack Flaherty (Orioles)
  • Lucas Giolito (Guardians)
  • Shota Imanaga (Yokohama DeNA BayStars, NPB)
  • Jordan Montgomery (Rangers)
  • Eduardo Rodriguez (Tigers)
  • Marcus Stroman (Cubs)
  • Yoshinobu Yamamoto (Orix Buffaloes, NPB)

As mentioned up top, players are only eligible to receive the qualifying offer if they haven’t received one previously and also spent the entire year with just one MLB club. Rodriguez and Stroman, who can each opt out of their respective contracts, have each been issued a QO earlier in their career. Flaherty, Giolito and Montgomery were all traded midseason, which makes them ineligible as well. Players coming from other leagues aren’t eligible either, so Yamamoto and Imanaga won’t have the QO in play. For each of these pitchers, the lack of a QO helps their earning power since clubs won’t have to forfeit any draft picks to sign them.

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2023-24 MLB Free Agents Baltimore Orioles Chicago Cubs Cleveland Guardians Detroit Tigers Los Angeles Angels Los Angeles Dodgers MLBTR Originals Minnesota Twins New York Yankees Philadelphia Phillies San Diego Padres Texas Rangers Aaron Nola Blake Snell Clayton Kershaw Eduardo Rodriguez Frankie Montas Jack Flaherty Jordan Montgomery Josh Hader Kenta Maeda Lucas Giolito Marcus Stroman Michael Wacha Seth Lugo Shohei Ohtani Shota Imanaga Sonny Gray Yoshinobu Yamamoto

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Padres Designate Nabil Crismatt For Assignment

By Darragh McDonald | June 20, 2023 at 5:50pm CDT

The Padres announced that right-hander Seth Lugo has been reinstated from the injured list, with fellow righty Nabil Crismatt designated for assignment in a corresponding move.

Crismatt, 28, began his major league career with the Cardinals in 2020. He only appeared in six games that season and was outrighted off the roster at season’s end. He signed a minor league deal with the Padres prior to the 2021 season and has been with them since. He made the club’s Opening Day roster that year and has served as an up-and-down arm for the club in recent years, often throwing multiple innings out of the bullpen while also getting frequently optioned to the minors.

Over 2021 and 2022, he tossed 148 2/3 innings over 95 appearances. He posted a combined 3.39 ERA over those two campaigns, striking out 21.6% of opponents while walking 7.3% and getting ground balls on 50.6% of balls in play.

He had exhausted his option years at that point and is now out of options here in 2023. This year, he made six appearances and struggled badly with a 10.80 ERA before landing on the injured list due to a hip strain. He returned from the IL a few days ago and tossed a scoreless inning on Friday. That dropped his ERA to 9.82 but he has now been squeezed off the roster.

The Padres will now have a week to trade Crismatt or pass him through waivers. His results have obviously been poor so far this year but it’s a small sample size and perhaps at least partially explained by the hip injury. He might garner interest based on his work in other seasons. Since he has a previous career outright, he would have the right reject an outright assignment and elect free agency if he were to pass through waivers unclaimed.

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San Diego Padres Transactions Nabil Crismatt Seth Lugo

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NL West Notes: Giants, Lugo, Dodgers

By Nick Deeds | June 18, 2023 at 10:45pm CDT

Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area discussed the injury situations facing the Giants earlier today, noting that right-hander Alex Cobb expects to only miss the minimum 15-days after landing on the injured list earlier today with an oblique strain. Cobb noted to reporters that he felt he could take the mound as soon as Wednesday, but the club is opting to “protect him for the long haul”, in the words of manager Gabe Kapler.

That’s phenomenal news for San Francisco, as Cobb has been among the club’s most reliable starters this season with a 3.09 ERA and 3.24 FIP in 78 2/3 innings of work. Nonetheless, it raises the question of who the club can add to the rotation alongside Logan Webb, Alex Wood, and Anthony DeSclafani while Cobb is on the shelf. One possibility, per The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly, is right-hander Sean Hjelle, who was scratched from his start at the Triple-A level today. Hjelle could replace left-hander Scott Alexander on the active roster for the Giants, as both Pavlovic and Baggarly note that the lefty reliever is expected to head to the injured list after leaving today’s game against the Dodgers with a hamstring issue.

More from around the NL West…

  • The Padres expect to welcome right-hander Seth Lugo back into the fold on Tuesday, when he figures to start against the Giants in San Francisco. Per MLB.com, Lugo threw a 60-pitch simulated game on Thursday, which would put the righty in line for around 80 pitches on Tuesday. Manager Bob Melvin told reporters today that the injury, while not ideal, has allowed the club to manage Lugo’s innings. While Lugo had largely pitched well in eight starts, with a 4.10 ERA and a 3.94 FIP, Lugo has never thrown more than 101 1/3 innings in a season in his career and last threw more than 65 innings back in 2019. Given that reality, Lugo’s month-long stint on the injured list has potentially allowed San Diego to avoid limiting his innings later in the season.
  • Dodgers fans have new clarity on the timelines of left-hander Julio Urias and right-hander Daniel Hudson, both of whom have made notable strides in their rehab processes in recent days. Manager Dave Roberts provided a specific timetable to reporters today, as noted by J.P. Hoornstra of the Orange County Register. Per Roberts, both pitchers are poised to be activated from the injured list during the club’s upcoming three-game set in Kansas City, which will take place from June 30 to July 2. All told, Urias will have missed six weeks while dealing with a hamstring strain if everything goes according to plan from here, while Hudson will make his 2023 debut after missing more than a calendar year while rehabbing from left knee surgery.
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Los Angeles Dodgers Notes San Diego Padres San Francisco Giants Alex Cobb Daniel Hudson Julio Urias Scott Alexander Sean Hjelle Seth Lugo

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Injury Notes: Quintana, Lugo, deGrom, Battenfield, Lee

By Anthony Franco | May 19, 2023 at 11:11pm CDT

The Mets have been without offseason pickup José Quintana all season thanks to a Spring Training rib issue that required surgery. The veteran southpaw got positive news this afternoon though. After receiving good results on a recent CT scan, Quintana told reporters he’s set to begin throwing off a mound for the first time since March (relayed by Tim Healey of Newsday).

Quintana is in for an extended rehab process. He’ll need to build up arm strength and progress to throwing live batting practice sessions before a minor league rehab stint that’s sure to encompass multiple starts. During the spring, the Mets provided a July estimate for Quintana’s return to major league action. There’s no indication that timetable has changed, but it’s a positive development his recovery is going as anticipated.

New York has had one of the least productive rotations thus far. They entered play Friday with a 5.29 rotation ERA that ranks 25th leaguewide. That should improve with Justin Verlander back from an early-season injured list stint and Max Scherzer unlikely to carry a 4.88 ERA all season. Still, with Carlos Carrasco allowing nearly an earned run per inning and underwhelming work from depth starters David Peterson, Tylor Megill and Joey Lucchesi, the Mets could certainly use some stability from Quintana in the second half.

The latest on some other health situations around the game:

  • The Padres placed starter Seth Lugo on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to May 17, due to a right calf strain. Southpaw Ryan Weathers was recalled from Triple-A El Paso to replace him in the rotation. Signed to a two-year free agent guarantee, Lugo has made eight starts in his move back to the rotation from relief. He’s acquitted himself reasonably well, posting a 4.10 ERA with a roughly league average 21.3% strikeout rate across 41 2/3 innings. The 33-year-old righty is looking to reestablish himself as a starter and could retest the market next winter. His $15MM contract allows him to opt out of the final year and $7.5MM at season’s end.
  • Jacob deGrom threw a 25-pitch bullpen session this afternoon, writes Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. It has been three weeks since the two-time Cy Young winner hit the injured list with elbow inflammation. deGrom told Grant and other reporters he came out of the session feeling good, opining he’s “turned a corner” in his ramp-up. Rangers skipper Bruce Bochy indicated on May 9 the club felt deGrom was two to three weeks from a return to a big league mound. While it doesn’t seem he’ll be back within the next few days, all indications are the issue isn’t as alarming as it first seemed given deGrom’s health history. Last offseason’s big-ticket free agent addition has a 2.67 ERA with an elite 39.1% strikeout percentage in his first 30 1/3 innings in a Ranger uniform.
  • The Guardians put starter Peyton Battenfield on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to May 18, with inflammation in his throwing shoulder. The rookie righty has been a member of Cleveland’s rotation since being called up in mid-April. He’s started six of seven appearances but struggled to a 5.19 ERA through 34 2/3 innings. The Oklahoma State product has a modest 18.5% strikeout rate and has given up seven home runs. He spent virtually all of last season with Triple-A Columbus, working to a 3.63 ERA over 28 starts. Battenfield’s next turn through the rotation was scheduled for Monday, so the Guardians will need to settle on a replacement for that series opener against the White Sox.
  • The Braves placed reliever Dylan Lee on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to May 17, on account of shoulder inflammation. Fellow southpaw Lucas Luetge was activated from an IL stint of his own in a corresponding move. Lee was somewhat quietly among the best relievers in the game last season, when he worked to a 2.13 ERA while striking out 29.4% of batters faced in 50 1/3 innings. He’s not been quite at that pace this year but still carries a solid 3.10 ERA and 27.1% strikeout percentage in 20 appearances. Luetge, acquired in an offseason trade with the Yankees, has made just five appearances with his new team thus far thanks to a bout of biceps inflammation.
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Atlanta Braves Cleveland Guardians New York Mets Notes San Diego Padres Texas Rangers Dylan Lee Jacob deGrom Jose Quintana Lucas Luetge Peyton Battenfield Ryan Weathers Seth Lugo

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