Yankees, Pirates, Astros In The Mix For Yandy Diaz
9:38pm: In addition to the Yankees, both the Pirates and Astros are engaged with the Rays on Diaz, reports Cuban journalist Francys Romero.
Both teams make some sense for Diaz, though the Astros’ fit is clearer and more straightforward. Houston released Jose Abreu earlier this summer and has received a middling .232/.316/.354 output from Jon Singleton in his stead. The ‘Stros already depleted the top end of a thin farm to acquire Yusei Kikuchi earlier tonight, however, making it tougher for them to win any kind of bidding war for a player of note.
The Pirates’ need at first base has quieted as they’ve enjoyed a resurgence from Rowdy Tellez since the calendar flipped to June. The lefty slugger touts a .331/.370/.595 line over his past 135 plate appearances. That said, Tellez has notable platoon splits in his career, and Diaz could also log time at both third base and designated hitter — particularly if the Bucs are comfortable playing Andrew McCutchen in the outfield more frequently. (Notably, outfielders Joshua Palacios and Ji Hwan Bae both exited tonight’s game with injuries.) More than anything, Pittsburgh simply needs more offense, so acquiring a quality hitter like Diaz and sorting out the playing time later has its own merits, even if the positional fit is less clean with Tellez’s recent hot streak and a franchise icon (McCutchen) serving as a near-everyday designated hitter.
8:35pm: The Yankees have been active in just about every facet of the trade market over the past week. They’ve landed Jazz Chisholm Jr. from the Marlins, looked into big-name starters like Giants lefty Blake Snell and Tigers righty Jack Flaherty, and simultaneously been gauging interest in lefty Nestor Cortes. Among the team’s other targets is Rays infielder Yandy Diaz, per The Athletic’s Brendan Kuty. The Yankees were also involved in the bidding for Isaac Paredes before he was traded to the Cubs, Kuty adds.
Adding some infield help makes good sense for the Yankees, who have Anthony Rizzo on the injured list while veterans Gleyber Torres and DJ LeMahieu have struggled throughout the season. Utilityman Jon Berti, acquired just prior to Opening Day, is on the injured list. Versatile Oswaldo Cabrera has faded after a hot start. Rookie Ben Rice has shown some power but entered play Monday hitting .196 with a .291 OBP (he’s since homered and bumped up those rate stats a bit). A brief look at veteran J.D. Davis didn’t work out.
Bringing Diaz aboard would give the Yankees an affordable veteran who can handle both infield corners, though he’s primarily played first base in recent seasons. The 32-year-old Diaz got out to a dreadful start in 2024 but turned things around emphatically after a slow first month. His season-long .270/.326/.397 line is more solid than it is eye-catching, but setting aside an uncharacteristic slump to begin the season, Diaz has turned in a robust .296/.348/.452 slash over a sample of just under 300 plate appearances. His superlative bat-to-ball skills have been on full display, as Diaz has fanned in a mere 13.7% of his plate appearances during that stretch and walked at a 7.5% clip. That walk rate is slightly below average, but Diaz has an 11.5% career mark in that regard.
Diaz’s approach is a particularly good fit with Yankee Stadium. Although he’s a right-handed hitter, he hits the ball to the opposite field at a hearty 30.3% rate — more than all but 16 hitters in baseball (min. 300 plate appearances). Diaz is batting .333 and slugging .505 when he goes the other way with the ball — numbers that would presumably tick up when playing half his games with that ever-alluring short right-field porch in the Bronx.
Diaz is in the second season of a three-year, $24MM contract. He’s earning $8MM on the year and is owed $10MM in 2025. There’s a $12MM club option for the 2026 campaign on the contract as well, which does not have a buyout. That backloaded contract is relatively steep for the Rays but far more palatable for the Yankees, even with their luxury-tax status. The Yankees are a third-time offender in the top tier of penalization, meaning they’d pay a 110% tax on the AAV of any contracts they add to the books. That creates some short-term pain, perhaps, but Diaz’s deal is more affordable than many free-agent options would be and the fact that he’s locked up through ’26 makes him an appealing multi-year option.
Latest On Rangers’ Deadline Plans
The Rangers made their first move of the summer earlier this evening by dealing a pair of prospects to the Tigers in exchange for catcher Carson Kelly, who figures to replace Andrew Knizner in the club’s catching tandem alongside 2023 All-Star Jonah Heim. The move confirms that the reigning World Series champs won’t be full-blown sellers despite a lackluster 51-55 record that leaves them 4.5 games back of the Astros and Mariners in the AL West, but that doesn’t mean the club necessarily plans to buy exclusively in the coming days, either.
As noted by Joel Sherman of the New York Post in a report this evening, the Rangers are making right-hander Michael Lorenzen available on the trade market. The news comes after The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal suggested that Lorenzen (as well as right-hander Jon Gray) could be made available prior to the deadline earlier this week. The 32-year-old Lorenzen has pitched solidly as a back-of-the-rotation option for Texas this year with a 3.87 ERA in 18 starts, though the veteran’s 5.26 FIP and 11.9% walk rate could be worrisome to prospective buyers.
In a sellers’ market starved for pitching options, it’s easy to imagine how a pitcher like Lorenzen who has plenty of experience both as a starter and as a reliever could be an attractive trade target even in spite of worrisome peripheral numbers. Meanwhile, dealing Lorenzen would allow the Rangers to recoup some long-term value for a pending free agent who could be forced out of his current role on the team by the impending returns of Tyler Mahle, Jacob deGrom, and Cody Bradford from injury.
That doesn’t mean that Lorenzen is a lock to be moved, however, as Jeff Wilson of Rangers Today writes that the Rangers could opt to take the right-hander off the market in the aftermath of Gray exiting his start today without throwing a pitch due to a groin injury. As noted by Shawn McFarland of the Dallas Morning News, Gray is set to undergo imaging to determine the severity of the issue. With none of Mahle, Bradford, nor deGrom likely to be ready to step into the club’s rotation just yet, a significant absence for Gray could complicate the club’s plans to deal Lorenzen by leaving them with only Nathan Eovaldi, Max Scherzer, and Andrew Heaney as active members of the starting rotation.
Wilson goes on to suggest, however, the Lorenzen isn’t the only name the club could consider shopping in the coming days. Wilson reports that first baseman Nathaniel Lowe‘s “name has surfaced” as a potential trade chip for the Rangers this summer amid an excellent July that has boosted his overall season slash line to .266/.361/.390 (114 wRC+). While Lowe could certainly be a potentially valuable addition for certain teams, two of the most obvious suitors for a first baseman this deadline are the Rangers’ own division rivals in Houston and Seattle. Even in an age where intradivisional trading has become more common, its hard to imagine the Rangers helping either the Astros or Mariners improve in the short terms as they look to chase them down for the AL West title this year. Still, it’s possible the Rangers are able to find a suitor for Lowe’s services elsewhere, such as in Pittsburgh where the Pirates could look to upgrade over Rowdy Tellez at first base.
The loss of Lowe from the lineup would further weaken a beleaguered Rangers offense, but Wilson goes on to suggest that dealing Lowe could open up a spot in the club’s lineup for Rays first baseman Yandy Diaz. Diaz is currently on the restricted list due to an undisclosed personal matter, but the Rangers were connected to him earlier this week. Diaz has slashed just .272/.327/.400 (111 wRC+) this year following a slow start to the season but is just one year removed from a sixth-place finish in AL MVP voting with the Rays last season.
The 32-year-old is controllable through the 2026 season just like Lowe is, and it’s theoretically possible that the Rangers could look to upgrade first base while retaining the same amount of team control should they manage to land Diaz while shipping Lowe elsewhere. Alternatively, it’s certainly feasible that the club could retain both players and utilize one as their primary DH for the remainder of the 2024 campaign before looking to trade one this winter should the club decide to commit fully to buying this summer. Such a move would provide an undeniable boost to the Texas offense, which has gotten an MLB-worst 57 wRC+ from the DH spot in the lineup this year.
Rangers Among Clubs With Interest In Yandy Díaz
Rays infielder Yandy Díaz has been on the restricted list for almost a week while attending to an undisclosed personal matter, but the Rays announced that they reinstated him today. They already had three vacancies on their 40-man roster, so this move brings their count to 38. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times relayed on X earlier that the club was hopeful of Díaz returning tonight. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported last night that the Rangers are interested in adding him to their lineup. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com says on X that the Astros, Mariners and Pirates are possible suitors, though it’s unclear if any of those clubs have engaged with the Rays.
Díaz, now 32, has been a fixture of the Rays for many years. He came to Tampa from Cleveland heading into 2019 as part of the three-team trade and quickly worked his way into being a regular for the Rays. From the start of 2019 to the present, he has drawn walks in 11.6% of his plate appearances while only striking out 14.5% of the time. His .288/.375/.439 batting line translates to a 133 wRC+, indicating he’s been 33% better than league average overall.
That offense is his best attribute. He’s not a burner on the basepaths and his third base defense was poorly regarded, though he’s been closer to average at first base and has been more or less permanently moved to that side of the diamond. But the 133 wRC+ that Díaz has put up from 2019 to the present is one of the top 15 marks in baseball among qualified hitters, highlighting that such consistently above-average production is hard to find.
Here in 2024, his season-long stats look mildly disappointing, a .273/.329/.396 line and 111 wRC+, but that’s mostly due to a brutal start that he has put behind him. He hit .211/.279/.276 through May 1 but his line of .302/.354/.453 since that time leads to a 134 wRC+, right in line with his overall track record.
The Rays don’t strictly have to move him but their behavior suggests he’s available. Going into 2023, he and the Rays signed an extension that runs through 2025 with a club option for 2026. He’ll make $10MM next year with the option valued at $12MM.
Tampa could certainly keep him but they have shown, both recently and in the past, that they are generally unafraid to move players nearing free agency. Although they are 52-51 this year and just four games out of a playoff spot, they have already traded Aaron Civale, Phil Maton and Randy Arozarena in recent weeks.
Some recent reporting suggested the Rays were more likely to trade arbitrations players than those signed to long-term deals, but that contradicts their past behavior. Players like Evan Longoria, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow and Manuel Margot have all signed extensions and then been traded before those contracts ended, so there’s no real reason to believe the Rays won’t be open to trade offers on Díaz.
Doing so wouldn’t even be a signal that the club is giving up on 2024, as players like Isaac Paredes and Curtis Mead could fill in at first base. Jonathan Aranda is currently hurt but could be in the mix later. Infielders like Junior Caminero, Austin Shenton and Osleivis Basabe could be called up to fill in elsewhere around the infield. In the long term, Xavier Isaac is a first baseman and considered one of the top 50 prospects in the league, though he’s yet to reach Double-A.
For the Rangers, Rosenthal relays that they are looking for “either a left-handed hitting outfielder/DH or a platoon-neutral right-handed hitter.” Díaz is better against lefties but isn’t a liability without the platoon advantage. He has a 148 wRC+ against southpaws in his career and a 121 wRC+ against righties. It’s a far wider split of 151 and 99 this year, though in a much smaller sample size.
Texas hitters have a collective line of .237/.309/.378 against right-handed pitching, with that line leading to a 93 wRC+, putting them ahead of just seven clubs in that split. They have Nathaniel Lowe at first base but don’t really have a regular designated hitter and should be able to fit both him and Díaz into the same lineup.
The Rays and Mariners already lined up on one deal, sending the aforementioned Arozarena to Seattle as the M’s look for more offense. Díaz could further augment their lineup, especially with the struggling Ty France have been recently designated for assignment and leaving an opening at first base. They have plugged Tyler Locklear into that spot but he has only 40 major league plate appearances thus far.
The Astros also cut ties with a struggling first baseman, releasing José Abreu earlier this year. They have mostly used Jon Singleton to fill that hole but he’s hitting just .231/.319/.343 this year for a 93 wRC+.
The Pirates have a bit less of a dire need as they held onto their struggling first baseman and were rewarded with a bounceback. Rowdy Tellez was hitting .177/.239/.223 through the end of May but has a line of .328/.364/.588 since the calendar flipped to June. His season-long line is still subpar thanks to that early slump but the Pirates probably feel less inclined to replaced Tellez on the heels of his hot streak this summer. They have Andrew McCutchen in the designated hitter spot most days, which makes the lineup fit a bit less clean unless they plan on moving on from Tellez, who is a free agent at season’s end.
Both the Astros and Rangers are set to pay the competitive balance tax at season’s end, so they may have to consider the taxes involved in taking on the Díaz contract. The Astros are set to be a first-time payor and have a base rate of 20% but RosterResource has their CBT number at $256MM. Crossing over the $257MM second tier would increase their tax rate to 32% for spending beyond that line. Recent reporting suggested they are trying to move Rafael Montero‘s contract to lessen their tax burden but doing so will be difficult given his poor results of late. RosterResource has the Rangers at $249MM but they are set to be a second-time payor and have a base tax rate of 30%.
Mariners Still Active In Trade Market
The Mariners’ acquisition of Randy Arozarena last night is perhaps the most notable swap of the season thus far, but Seattle isn’t content with that lone acquisition. MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets that the M’s are still talking to other clubs, looking to add another bat and a high-leverage reliever. Adam Jude of the Seattle Times adds some context on the team’s search for bats, reporting that two of the top bats on the market — Oakland’s Brent Rooker and Chicago’s Luis Robert — may not be likely to land in Seattle. The A’s have been reluctant to trade with Seattle, per Jude, while an acquisition of Robert is considered “highly unlikely at this point.”
Both Rooker and Robert would add a controllable, high-end bat to what has been a stagnant Mariners offense. Rooker is arb-eligible for the first time this offseason and controlled three more years. Robert is signed through the 2025 season, and his contract contains a pair of $20MM club options.
The A’s haven’t always been reluctant to deal within the AL West, but the last time they completed a trade with the Mariners came back in 2017, when the two clubs swapped Emilio Pagan for Ryon Healy. In fact, the only trade they’ve made with a division rival in the past three years was this April’s acquisition of righty Brandon Bielak in a deal that sent cash back to the Astros. It’s always possible there’ll be a change in direction, but their once-frequent intra-division trades (e.g. Elvis Andrus, Khris Davis, Jed Lowrie, Jurickson Profar, Pagan, Healy) have dried up in recent years.
With regard to Robert, there’s no intra-division component to be considered, but traction on Robert hasn’t really picked up, it seems. ESPN’s Jeff Passan writes that the White Sox have set a high asking price and haven’t yet seen potential trade partners willing to meet it or even come particularly close.
The mere mention of Rooker and Robert aligns largely with the latest reporting from Daniel Kramer of MLB.com, who suggests that Seattle’s front office has been “aggressive” in trying to add multiple impact bats. Arozarena checks one box, but the Mariners’ lineup could use upgrades at multiple spots.
It’s even possible the M’s and Rays could line up on another deal; Kramer writes that the two teams discussed infielders Isaac Paredes and Yandy Diaz in the offseason. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweets that the Mariners are again a potential landing spot for Diaz, who is drawing trade interest and was reinstated from the restricted list within the past hour after a week-long absence to tend to an undisclosed family matter.
Like Arozarena, the 32-year-old Diaz got out to a slow start in 2024 but has heated up in recent months. Over his past 280 plate appearances, he’s slashing a robust .302/.354/.453 with seven homers, 16 doubles, a triple and just a 13.9% strikeout rate. He’d give the Mariners an upgrade over the recently designated Ty France and simultaneously accomplish the team’s ongoing goal of reducing their MLB-worst strikeout rate. He’s earning $8MM the second season of a three-year, $24MM contract extension and is owed $10MM in 2025 before the team must decide on a $12MM option for the 2026 season.
Paredes, 25, is arguably one of the most appealing possibilities on the entire trade market. He’s played third base primarily of late, but the versatile infielder can handle all four infield positions and has emerged as a genuine middle-of-the-order slugger. Dating back to Opening Day 2023, he’s slashed .250/.353/.469 with 47 homers in 241 games. He’s earning only $3.4MM this season in the first of four arbitration seasons (as a Super Two player). Paredes’ versatility, productive bat, remaining control and currently affordable price tag could make the prospect cost to acquire him prohibitive, but the Rays are generally open to listen on anyone — and teams have been at least inquiring on Paredes recently.
Latest On Rays’ Deadline Approach
The Rays are among the more interesting bubble teams with the deadline eight days off. Tampa Bay entered today’s series finale with the Yankees at 50-49. They dropped the game 9-1, putting them back to .500.
Today’s loss knocked Tampa Bay five games behind the Royals, who hold the final Wild Card spot in the American League. The Red Sox and Mariners also sit between the Rays and the last playoff spot. They’re 10.5 back with three teams to jump in the AL East, so it’s almost certainly Wild Card or bust. A five-game deficit certainly isn’t insurmountable, but it’s not an easy gap to close either (especially with multiple teams to jump).
MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand tweeted last night that the Rays are expected to both buy and sell at the deadline. Presumably, that’d take the form of shopping players on more expensive salaries and/or a dwindling control window while exploring acquisitions of MLB-ready talent that could aid the Rays in a longer shot playoff push this season and contribute to the 2025 roster. Tampa Bay’s front office is plenty familiar with trying to strike that balance as they look to remain annually competitive despite bottom five player payrolls.
The Rays have no shortage of veterans who’d generate interest. The Rays had five players on MLBTR’s initial list of Top 50 trade candidates last week: Zack Littell, Zach Eflin, Pete Fairbanks, Randy Arozarena and Jason Adam. There’d be a ton of interest in Isaac Paredes if the Rays genuinely considered moving their All-Star third baseman. SNY’s Andy Martino wrote last week that the Rays are willing to listen on Paredes, though there’s nothing to suggest that’s more than the organization’s standard openness to talking about every player.
Brandon Lowe and Yandy Díaz are each making between $8MM and $9MM and would be appealing targets in a light infield market. Amed Rosario has had a nice rebound season after signing a surprisingly low $1.5MM free agent deal. He’s headed back to free agency next winter and offers multi-positional versatility and plus contact skills from the right side. Virtually every contender could squeeze him onto the roster and in their payroll ledger.
Tampa Bay certainly isn’t going to trade everyone from that group. The Rays have never been keen on completely tearing down the roster and embarking on multi-year rebuilds. They’re not far enough from the playoff mix to make that advisable regardless. Yet it’d be surprising if the Rays didn’t at least move one or two veterans. Rosario, as their only impending free agent of note, is the most obvious candidate. The front office is clearly willing to deal some players under team control beyond this season, as evidenced by their trade of starter Aaron Civale (who is eligible for arbitration for the final time next winter) to Milwaukee.
Patrick Mooney, Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of the Athletic wrote this morning that the Rays could be more apt to trade players who are going yearly through arbitration than to deal those playing on guaranteed contracts. Arozarena, Paredes, Littell and Adam fall into the first bucket. Fairbanks, Díaz and Lowe have signed extensions, while Eflin joined Tampa Bay on a three-year free agent deal. There’s not much difference between players on guaranteed contracts versus arbitration salaries in practice, but The Athletic writes that the Rays could feel more of an obligation to hold the players who have committed to the franchise for multiple seasons.
While that’s a possible factor, it’d be surprising if the Rays drew too rigid a distinction. Tampa Bay traded Tyler Glasnow and Manuel Margot — each of whom had signed an extension — to the Dodgers last winter. Glasnow’s deal sent him close to home on the West Coast and came in conjunction with another extension with L.A.; the Dodgers flipped Margot to Minnesota within a few weeks. Tampa Bay traded Blake Snell within two years of signing him to a five-year extension back in December 2020.
Eflin ($11MM), Lowe ($8.75MM) and Díaz ($8MM) have the highest salaries among players on multi-year deals. Arozarena’s $8.1MM salary is by far the highest of Tampa Bay’s group of players on arbitration deals. Eflin will make $18MM next year in the final season of his backloaded contract. Díaz is set to make $10MM next season on a deal that has a $12MM team option for 2026. The Rays hold club options on Lowe (valued at $10.5MM and $11.5MM, respectively) for the next two seasons.
Arozarena is set to go through arbitration twice more, while Paredes is eligible for arbitration through the ’27 campaign. He’ll certainly be in line for a lofty raise on this year’s $3.4MM salary. Fairbanks, Adam, Rosario and Littell are all on modest salaries; Fairbanks’ $3.666MM figure is the highest of the bunch. All but Rosario are under contract or club control for at least another season.
If the Rays ultimately straddle the line between buying and selling, they’re fairly well positioned to deal from their rotation and infield. Shane Baz’s return from Tommy John surgery was one motive for the Civale trade. The Rays could welcome back Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen over the next couple months and will get Shane McClanahan back in 2025 — perhaps lessening the sting of a deal involving Eflin or Littell. Upper level infielders like Curtis Mead and top prospect Junior Caminero could make it easier to part with Lowe. That’s arguably also true of Paredes, although it’d have been an easier sell if Caminero hadn’t had two extended injured list stints in Triple-A this year because of quad issues.
Tampa Bay doesn’t have as much long-term stability in the outfield, particularly if they move Arozarena at some point. At catcher, they’ve gotten good production this year out of Ben Rortvedt but could still look for a clearer long-term answer. Tampa Bay’s typically excellent bullpen has been an unexpected issue this season, so that’s another area where the Rays may look to add.
Rays Place Yandy Diaz On Restricted List
10:38AM: Rays manager Kevin Cash told Topkin and other reporters that Diaz is away due to a matter involving his family, and that his potential return is a day-by-day situation.
9:41AM: The Rays announced that first baseman Yandy Diaz has been placed on the restricted list, and infielder Curtis Mead was called up from Triple-A to take Diaz’s spot on the active roster. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (X link) writes that Diaz didn’t play on Friday due to what the Rays described as “a personal matter.”
Given the private nature of this situation, we may not learn any specifics about Diaz’s absence until he is activated or at least closer to a return. The absence comes at a financial cost to Diaz, as he’ll lose salary (as well as MLB service time) for any time spent on the restricted list. Diaz has about $3.3MM remaining on his $8MM salary for the 2024 season.
A staple of Tampa Bay’s lineup for the last six seasons, Diaz has gotten regular time at both corner infield positions and quietly delivered consistent strong offense. Diaz hit a new level in 2022-23, hitting .314/.406/.475 over 1158 plate appearances — among all qualified hitters over that two-season stretch, only six players had a higher wRC+ than Diaz’s 155 mark.
That production has dipped in 2024, as Diaz’s .273/.329/.396 slash line over 416 PA translates to an 111 wRC+. While he has been hitting better after an ice-cold start over the first two months, Diaz’s power numbers have dropped off significantly, as his .123 Isolated Slugging figure is well below his .192 mark from 2023. His .123 ISO is at least more consistent with previous seasons beyond 2023, yet Diaz’s 7.5% walk rate is far below his career 12.2BB%.
Even a lesser version of Diaz is still a big part of Tampa’s lineup, so the Rays now have to deal with an unexpected absence while trying to stay afloat in the playoff race. Diaz has been utilized only as a first baseman and DH this season, so it seems likely that Isaac Paredes could be shifted from third base to first base, with Mead stepping into the mix at the hot corner along with Jose Caballero and Amed Rosario.
Diaz’s absence also creates another wrinkle for whatever plans the Rays might have heading into the July 30 trade deadline. Tampa is 48-49 and sits 5.5 games out of the final AL wild card slot, so there is still plenty of time left for the club to make a run towards another postseason berth. However, it has been speculated that the Rays could look to operate as both sellers and buyers at the deadline, perhaps bolstering for both this season and for the future while also trimming some salary from the payroll. If Diaz is still on the restricted list by July 30, it stands to reason that the Rays might pursue some infield help, though it is worth noting that Paredes could be a potential trade candidate. Star prospect Junior Caminero is just returning to Triple-A action in the aftermath of a quad injury, and it is assumed that a healthy Caminero will again be called up to Tampa Bay’s active roster to join the infield picture.
How Will The Rays Approach The Deadline?
The Rays enter tonight’s series finale against the Cubs sitting at the bottom of the AL East. They’re 32-36, within two games of the Red Sox and Blue Jays, but any chance they have of keeping pace with the Yankees and Orioles is gone. The Rays are four games out of the final Wild Card spot in the American League with four teams between them and the Twins.
While that deficit is hardly insurmountable, the Rays have played more poorly than their record indicates. They’ve been outscored by 63 runs, a worse run differential than the Angels’ -60 mark. Only the White Sox, Rockies, Marlins, and A’s — very likely the four worst teams in the majors — have been outscored by more than Tampa Bay has. The Rays are in the bottom third of the league in batting average and on-base percentage. Only the White Sox and Miami have a worse slugging output. Tampa Bay’s rotation is 20th in ERA; their bullpen is 23rd.
With that level of play around the roster, it’s fairly remarkable that they’re only four games under .500. That’s mostly attributable to a 12-5 record in one-run games. That’s not a pace that most teams can sustain over the course of a season, and it’s not as if the Rays have had a lights-out bullpen locking down every small lead.
As deadline season approaches, the Rays have played like a team that looks like it won’t have much choice but to sell. They certainly haven’t resembled a club that has made five straight trips to the postseason and was one of the best in the American League en route to 99 wins last year. Some measure of regression was probably inevitable. Tampa Bay entered the season without three of its top starters in Shane McClanahan, Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen. They traded their ace (Tyler Glasnow) before his final year under contract. Wander Franco had been the team’s best position player. There was no way to completely replace the production they were losing at shortstop with Franco on administrative leave while he faces sexual abuse charges in the Dominican Republic.
All that said, the front office probably didn’t anticipate the team struggling to this extent. Their issues go beyond the players who aren’t available. Randy Arozarena is hitting .174/.282/.317 over 266 plate appearances. Yandy Díaz won a batting title and finished sixth in AL MVP voting last season. He has a league average .255/.315/.375 slash line in a team-leading 295 trips to the plate. Harold Ramírez had a .313/.353/.460 showing in 122 games a year ago. He hit .268/.284/.305 with only one homer in 48 contests before being designated for assignment last week. Brandon Lowe missed six weeks with an oblique strain and hasn’t hit well in the 27 games he’s played.
There are similar stories on the pitching side. The Rays acquired Aaron Civale last summer to stabilize their injury-riddled rotation. The righty has been tagged for a 5.20 ERA across 14 starts. Zach Eflin has been solid — a 4.06 mark through 12 outings — but hasn’t performed at the level that earned him a sixth-place finish in last year’s Cy Young balloting. Pete Fairbanks had a few rocky outings early in the season (although he’s found his form since returning from the injured list in mid-May). Phil Maton, signed to pitch in a high-leverage role, has been hit hard.
Opposing teams have taken notice. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic wrote yesterday that other clubs are monitoring in case Tampa Bay decides to orchestrate a deadline sell-off. Rosenthal lists Arozarena, Brandon Lowe and Díaz as potential buy-low targets for other teams. That trio, not coincidentally, are three of the four highest-paid players on the Tampa Bay roster.
Rosenthal reports that the Rays have yet to seriously entertain selling, hoping the team will show signs of a turnaround. There’s still time for that to happen before the July 30 deadline. The Rays’ record in one-run games may not be sustainable, but it has prevented them from falling completely out of the playoff mix. The team hasn’t played well, yet there’s clearly more talent on the roster than they’ve shown through two-plus months.
Still, the Rays presumably won’t have qualms about moving veteran pieces if things do not improve over the next six weeks. Tampa Bay’s front office is accustomed to dealing stars even while the team is in contention, building a talent pipeline that generally keeps them competitive despite bottom five payrolls.
Arozarena is making $8.1MM in his second of four trips through the arbitration process. Lowe is making $8.75MM in the final guaranteed season of the extension he signed in Spring Training 2019. The team holds successive options at $10.5MM and $11.5MM (with a $1MM buyout) for the next two years. The Rays just extended Díaz during the 2022-23 offseason. He’s playing on an $8MM salary this year and will make $10MM next season. Tampa Bay holds a $12MM option for the ’26 campaign.
While no one from that group is playing up to their previous standards, they’d each have appeal on the trade market. Arozarena, who had been a well above-average hitter in every season before this one, would net a particularly strong haul. Díaz is a limited defender, but he combined for a .314/.406/.475 slash line between 2022-23. His $10MM salary for 2025 is still below market value. Lowe should have the lowest trade value of the group given his injury history, but he’s one of the game’s better offensive second basemen at his best. While the Rays are probably trending toward declining next season’s $10.5MM option, it provides some contractual upside if Lowe finds his stride in the second half.
The players of intrigue go beyond that trio of potential rebound targets. Third baseman Isaac Paredes has been the team’s best player in 2024. He’s raking at a .291/.371/.479 clip and should be on pace for his first All-Star nod. Paredes owns a .245/.341/.469 batting line in more than 1200 plate appearances since the Rays pulled him from the Tigers in the Austin Meadows trade. He’s playing on a $3.4MM salary this year after qualifying for early arbitration as a Super Two player.
Paredes is under team control through 2027. The Rays would need a huge haul to seriously entertain moving him, but there’s some chance with top third base prospect Junior Caminero waiting in the wings. Eflin is due $11MM this season (making him the highest-paid player on the team) and will collect $18MM next year. There’d be a lot of interest at that price point for a quality mid-rotation starter. Tampa Bay could get a modest return for Amed Rosario as a solid multi-positional player on a $1.5MM salary. There’d be varying levels of interest in Fairbanks, Jason Adam, Garrett Cleavinger and Shawn Armstrong among contenders seeking bullpen depth.
Rays Notes: Lowe, Diaz, Aranda
Rays outfielder Josh Lowe appeared to be nearing a return from the injured list after heading out for a rehab assignment earlier this month, but it appears the 26-year-old’s 2024 debut is once again on hold. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reported earlier today that Lowe felt some tightness in his right hamstring and is now headed back to Tampa for an MRI, which is scheduled for Monday.
It’s another tough blow for Lowe, who impressed with a .292/.335/.500 slash line in 135 games with the Rays last season. It appeared Lowe was on track to be activated from the shelf as soon as this weekend to take over the everyday job in right field, but now those plans have been scuttled for at least a few days. Rays right fielders have hit an excellent .308/.361/.455 (145 wRC+) in Lowe’s absence, thanks primarily to surprisingly strong performances from Richie Palacios and Amed Rosario in a platoon at the position.
Even so, the return of Lowe to the club’s lineup would surely provide a boost for the Rays by allowing Rosario and Palacios to contribute elsewhere in the lineup, such as second base. The Rays have gotten minimal offensive production from the keystone this season, with their second basemen slashing a collective .227/.292/.299 (81 wRC+) so far this year while struggling youngster Curtis Mead has taken the lion’s share of starts at the position to this point.
Lowe isn’t the only big bat missing from the Rays lineup this weekend, as veteran infielder Yandy Diaz was absent from today’s lineup after being struck in the finger by a 99 mph pitch from right-hander Michael Kopech yesterday. Fortunately, Topkin reported last night that x-rays on Diaz’s hand were negative, indicating that the 32-year-old may be back in the club’s lineup in the near future. It’s been a tough start to the season for the veteran, as he’s slashed just .241/.303/.315 (87 wRC+) in his first 119 trips to the plate.
While his .278 BABIP to this point in the season is far below his career average of .323, Diaz’s 7.8% walk rate in 2024 would be a career low if maintained over the course of a full season and he’s offered little power with just five doubles and one homer to this point in the campaign. If the veteran can right the ship upon returning to the lineup and return to the form that earned him a sixth-place finish in AL MVP voting last year, it would be a huge boost for the Rays as they look to bounce back from a difficult start to the season that’s seen them go 13-14 while falling to fourth place in a crowded AL East division.
Also making his way toward a return to the big league lineup is infielder Jonathan Aranda, who’s been out for a little over a month after undergoing surgery to repair a broken finger back in March. As noted by MLB.com’s Injury Tracker, Aranda began a rehab assignment at the Triple-A level yesterday. It’s less than two weeks after Aranda had the pins removed from his finger thanks to the fact that Aranda was able to stay active throughout his rehab process.
If Aranda is nearing a return to action, it would give the Rays another left-handed option to complement the likes of Mead and Harold Ramirez both around the infield and at DH. Aranda hit a roughly league average .230/.340/.368 in 103 trips to the plate in the majors last year but impressed this spring with an excellent .371/.421/.571 line in 13 games prior to his injury.
Shohei Ohtani Wins AL MVP
Two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani has been voted the Most Valuable Player in the American League for 2023, per an announcement from the Baseball Writers’ Association of America. Corey Seager and Marcus Semien of the Rangers were second and third in the voting, respectively.
The news hardly comes as a surprise, with Ohtani having delivered another two-way season for the Angels in which the only precedent was himself. He made 23 starts as a pitcher, tossing 132 innings with an earned run average of 3.14. His 10.4% walk rate was a bit on the high side but he struck out 31.5% of batters faced. Among pitchers with at least 130 innings pitched on the year, only Spencer Strider punched out opponents at a greater rate.
As a hitter, he launched 44 home runs and drew walks at a 15.2% clip. His .304/.412/.654 batting line translated to a wRC+ of 180, indicating he was 80% better overall than the average hitter. He accomplished all of these things despite having his season cut short by injury. Due to some finger issues and then a torn UCL, he only tossed 1 1/3 innings after August 9 and not at all after August 23. He continued hitting but he later suffered an oblique strain and his last game as either a hitter or pitcher was September 3.
That didn’t matter as Ohtani had already racked up enough accomplishments to take home the award for a second time, the first coming in 2021. If it weren’t for Aaron Judge‘s record-breaking 62 home runs last year, Ohtani would have gotten a hat trick. The BBWAA notes that this is the first time a player has won a unanimous MVP twice. The most unique baseball player of all time is now the most unique free agent of all time and is surely in line to break another record, or records, when he finally puts pen to paper.
Seager and Semien each had fine seasons in their own right, but had little chance to catch Ohtani here, though they have World Series rings to soften the blow. Seager hit 33 home runs and had a wRC+ of 169 while those numbers were 29 and 124 for Semien.
Other players receiving votes were Julio Rodríguez, Kyle Tucker, Yandy Díaz, Bobby Witt Jr., Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, José Ramírez, Gerrit Cole, Luis Robert Jr., Yordan Alvarez, Adolis García, Judge, Bo Bichette, J.P. Crawford, Cal Raleigh, Rafael Devers, Isaac Paredes, Sonny Gray, Alex Bregman and Josh Naylor.
AL East Notes: Yankees, Cora, Diaz, Mountcastle
The Yankees are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs for the first time in years, but that hasn’t stopped them from looking to get some of their injured players on the mound one last time before the offseason. Right-hander Keynan Middleton has been on the injured list the end of August due to a bout of shoulder inflammation, though MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch notes that Middleton latest bullpen session went well and the 30-year-old figures to return for the club’s final series against the Royals.
Likewise, it remains possible that the Yankees will welcome right-hander Frankie Montas back into the fold before the end of the season as he’s close to being ready to return from offseason shoulder surgery. Hoch has more details on Montas’s long-awaited return, indicating that the plan, if Montas is able to return, is for the righty to act as a piggyback starter behind one of the club’s regular starters in Kansas City, throwing 2-3 innings in relief of the day’s scheduled starter.
With both Middleton and Montas likely headed to free agency this November, it makes sense that both righties are hoping to establish themselves as healthy and effective ahead of their offseason negotiations with interested clubs. Middleton was in the midst of a solid (if unspectacular) season with the White Sox but found another gear following his move to New York at the trade deadline on August 1, after which point he posted a 0.68 ERA with 17 strikeouts in just 13 1/3 innings of work. Overall, he sports a 3.08 ERA and 3.90 FIP in 50 appearances this season. Montas, on the other hand, has not pitched in 2023 but posted a 3.67 ERA and 3.55 FIP across 59 starts the previous two seasons.
More from around the AL East…
- Red Sox manager Alex Cora ended any speculation regarding his future in conversation with reporters today. As relayed by Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe, Cora twice told reporters this afternoon that he would be returning to the dugout for Boston in 2024. While not especially surprising, the confirmation is nonetheless noteworthy on the heels of the club firing chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom earlier this month. While speculation mounted that Cora could potentially be considered to replace Bloom in the front office, Cora recently indicated that he intends to stay in the dugout, at least for the time being. Cora took over the Red Sox as manager in 2018 and oversaw the club’s World Series championship that fall. In five seasons at the helm of Boston’s dugout, Cora sports a 438-367 record.
- The Rays have been without first baseman Yandy Diaz in recent days due to a hamstring issue. Fortunately, Diaz appears to be nearing a return, as Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times relays that Diaz is feeling better and figures to return to the field in Toronto this weekend. That’s excellent news for the Rays, as Diaz has been the club’s best hitter this year with an incredible .324/.408/.515 slash line in 596 trips to the plate this year.
- The Orioles announced earlier today that they have activated first baseman Ryan Mountcastle from the injured list, with outfielder Ryan McKenna optioned to Triple-A in the corresponding move. Mountcastle’s return is great news for the AL East-leading Orioles, as the first baseman has slashed .269/.327/.453 in 459 trips to the plate this season. He figures to join a deep 1B/DH mix that already includes Ryan O’Hearn and Anthony Santander ahead of Baltimore’s impending postseason run.