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Latest On Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts

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Shortstop Carlos Correa is one of the top free agent available and he is unsurprisingly drawing plenty of interest. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports that eight teams are interested in his services, but the Twins are expected to “go hard” in their attempts to retain him.

Heyman doesn’t mention any teams by name other than the Twins, who are already known to be making a concerted effort to keep Correa in Minnesota. It was reported earlier this week that they have made multiple offers to him, with varying lengths between six and ten years, presumably with higher salaries on the shorter deals and lower salaries on the longer deals. In addition to the Twins, Correa has already been publicly linked in some way to the Giants, Dodgers and Cubs. Since Heyman says eight teams are involved, it appears there are four “mystery teams” at the table.

As to who those mystery teams are, we can only guess, though there would be some logical fits. Mariners’ president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has said the club is planning to pursue shortstops to play second base in deference to J.P. Crawford. The Phillies are known to be looking for a shortstop this winter. The Braves will need to replace Dansby Swanson if they can’t re-sign him but they might not have the financial ability to go after Correa. The Orioles have been speculated as a fit given that general manager Mike Elias was working for the Astros when Correa was drafted and developed, though they don’t have a track record that would suggest they’d give out the type of contract it would require to land him.

One surprising team that could be in the mix is the Padres. Heyman doesn’t directly connect the club to Correa but he does say they are considering the free agent shortstops. The Padres have been extremely aggressive in recent years and president of baseball operations A.J. Preller shouldn’t really be counted out on anyone, but it’s still unexpected to see the club connected to this market. The Friars got by without Fernando Tatis Jr. in 2022, who missed the first half of the season due to a wrist injury and the second half due to a suspension for a positive test for performance-enhancing drugs.

In his absence, Ha-Seong Kim stepped up and had an excellent season. He hit .251/.325/.383 for a wRC+ of 105 while stealing 12 bases and providing excellent defense. All of Defensive Runs Saved, Ultimate Zone Rating and Outs Above Average gave him positive grades, allowing him to produce 3.7 wins above replacement, according to FanGraphs. With Tatis set to return in 2023 once he serves the final 20 games of his suspension, it would seem the position is already crowded enough as it is. However, Heyman’s report indicates the club is open to the idea of moving Tatis to the outfield, something he’s dabbled with in the past, while bumping Kim into a utility role.

It had been previously reported that the club was considering an alignment of Kim at short, Tatis at second and Jake Cronenworth at first. It seems that this new plan would be somewhat similar but with Tatis going to the outfield, perhaps replacing Jurickson Profar, who is now a free agent, in left. Regardless of how it would eventually play out, Heyman lists Xander Bogaerts as their preferred option for this plan. Marino Pepén also connects the Padres to Bogaerts, though he says they are behind the Phillies and the Red Sox in the bidding.

Payroll might be a factor for the Friars, as Roster Resource currently pegs their payroll at $210MM and their competitive balance tax number at $230MM, just under the first CBT threshold of $233MM. The club has nudged over the CBT line in the past two years, but signing a marquee shortstop would surely mean blowing past the first threshold and flirting with the second, which is $253MM. As a third-time payor, the Padres are already facing a 50% tax on all spending over the first the first threshold plus a 12% surcharge on spending over the second. That means every dollar they go over $253MM would be taxed at a 62% rate. The club has continually surprised onlookers with their aggression in recent seasons, meaning it shouldn’t be completely ruled out. But it would be quite a noteworthy escalation, especially with the club connected to other big free agents like José Abreu and Kodai Senga.

As for the Giants, who have been connected to the free agent shortstops for some time, they will have to answer the Brandon Crawford question if they succeed in signing a new shortstop. He’s been with the club since being drafted back in 2008 and has been a mainstay at shortstop for them since 2011. He turns 36 in January, has one year remaining on his extension and is coming off a down year in 2022. He made multiple trips to the injured list and posted a batting line of .231/.308/.344, wRC+ of 87. DRS and UZR were down on his work in the field, but he did earn 7 OAA.

As to how the club would handle a new shortstop with Crawford on the roster, it seems that it would depend who the shortstop is. According to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle, Crawford would move to third base if they signed Correa, but Trea Turner or Dansby Swanson would be installed at second base. That’s likely a reflection of the fact that Turner and Swanson have lesser throwing arms than the other two. According to the Statcast arm strength leaderboard among shortstops, Swanson comes 48th out of 50 while Turner is 26th. Crawford is a bit higher at 19 while Correa is at #6. Correa’s excellent arm strength arguably makes him a fit for third base, but his overall defense is superior to Crawford’s at this stage of their careers. Regardless of how sensible the arguments may be, it’s at least a bit surprising that the Giants are apparently willing to supplant Crawford at shortstop under the right conditions.

Shelby Miller Drawing Interest From Multiple Clubs

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Right-hander Shelby Miller is a free agent that is apparently intriguing some teams around the league. He tells Susan Slusser of The San Francisco Chronicle that the Giants offered him a minor league deal with an invite to Spring Training but he has major league offers from two clubs.

At first glance, it might seem strange that Miller is so popular since he hasn’t really been an effective major leaguer since 2015. Once one of most highly-touted prospects in the game, Miller seemed to be cementing himself as a big league starter with the Cardinals from 2012 to 2014. He went to Atlanta in the Jason Heyward trade and had another strong season in 2015. However, after getting traded to the Diamondbacks for three players, including Dansby Swanson, things went south for him. He posted a 6.15 ERA with the Snakes in 2016 and then only logged 38 combined innings over the next two seasons due to injuries.

Since then, Miller has gradually moved into more relief work, with very impressive results in the minors. In 2021, he pitched in Triple-A while in the system of both the Cubs and the Pirates, throwing 24 1/3 innings with a 2.96 ERA, 37.8% strikeout rate and 9.2% walk rate. He got brief looks in the majors with both clubs but struggled to a 9.24 ERA in 13 games.

In 2022, Miller started the year on a minor league deal with the Yankees but eventually opted out and signed with the Giants on another minors pact. Between the two orgs, he tossed 53 1/3 innings with a 2.87 ERA, 31.2% strikeout rate and 9.5% walk rate. The Giants selected him to the big league roster late in the season and put him into four games, though Miller put up a 6.43 ERA in that brief showing.

Despite that lack of recent MLB success, it stands to reason that clubs would be interested. Miller’s racked up huge strikeout numbers in Triple-A for two straight years and could be a useful bullpen piece for whoever figures out how to bring those up to the majors. The free agent market for relievers has been quite strong so far this offseason, with Edwin Diaz getting $102MM over five years, Robert Suarez getting $46MM over five years and Rafael Montero getting $34.5MM over three.

Given those robust contracts, it stands to reason that some clubs would look to take fliers on arms that can be had for cheaper. Miller is now 32 years old and has a spotty track record that will prevent him from getting paid at those levels. However, the market conditions seem to be working in his favor and will at least get him a shot in the show with someone. It’s unclear which teams have extended offers to him, but Miller would perhaps be best suited to join a rebuilding club. They would be more likely to have space in their bullpen to take a chance on him and could then look to trade him at the deadline if the gamble paid off.

The Opener: Harper, Judge, 2023-24 Free Agents

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Turkeys are in the oven but what’s simmering on the hot stove?

1. Bryce Harper Undergoes Tommy John Surgery

After playing most of 2022 with a torn UCL, Bryce Harper finally went under the knife yesterday. It wasn’t known what type of surgery he would require until the procedure began, but he ultimately required a full ulnar collateral ligament reconstruction, also known as Tommy John surgery. The Phillies provided this update: “The prognosis is for Bryce to be returning as the designated hitter by the All-Star break of 2023 with a possible return to play right field towards the end of the regular season.” Not having Harper in the lineup for the first half of the season is certainly a blow to the club, but it also creates opportunities by opening up the DH spot. That could mean less time in the outfield for guys like Kyle Schwarber or Nick Castellanos, but there are other plans being considered. Manager Rob Thomson told reporters, including Alex Coffey of The Philadelphia Inquirer, that one option would be Alec Bohm moving over to first base and Rhys Hoskins taking the DH spot. Third base would then go to Edmundo Sosa, with the club presumably adding a shortstop. The Phils have been connected to the free agent shortstops for some time and Harper’s lengthy absence could increase their urgency to pursue Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson.

2.  Aaron Judge Meets With Giants

As expected, Aaron Judge met with the Giants this week. According to Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area, this meeting included a chat with NBA superstar Steph Curry. The Giants are expected to make an offer soon and it will be interesting to see what form it takes. The top free agents usually reach free agency in the late 20s but Judge is a little older, turning 31 in April. As part of our post on the top 50 free agents, MLBTR predicted Judge to get an eight-year deal, which would take him into his age-38 season. With multiple teams at the table, would Judge try to get a ninth year with a lower annual salary or would he prefer to focus on the AAV? Also, who else will he meet with? It’s been reported that the Dodgers are interested in signing Judge to take over right field and then moving Mookie Betts to second base. Is Judge planning to take a trip down the Pacific Coast Highway after the holidays?

3. 2023-24 Free Agents

The 2022-23 offseason is underway, but if you’re already looking ahead to next winter, MLBTR has you covered. Later today, we will publish a list of players currently slated to reach the open market one year from now. This list will be fluid since some players will sign extensions, while current free agents will agree to one-year deals or longer pacts with options or opt-outs opportunities. The post will be updated over time to reflect those changes. There are some very intriguing names on the list, but the most exciting is a certain two-way player who’s currently on the Angels.

Aaron Judge Meets With Giants

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November 23: Jon Morosi of MLB Network says that the meeting went well and that the Giants are expected to make an offer to Judge soon.

November 21: The Giants are planning to sit down with the market’s top free agent this week, as Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweets they’re expected to meet with Aaron Judge. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports the parties have a sit-down scheduled for tomorrow (on Twitter).

It’s notable but entirely unsurprising to see the Giants in the market for Judge. They’ve long been speculated as perhaps the top threat to the Yankees for the reigning AL MVP’s services. That’s both a reflection of the slugger’s ties to Northern California and, more importantly, to the abundance of financial breathing room at the Giants’ disposal. As MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald explored this afternoon, the Giants are as well-positioned as any team to make a major splash on the open market.

San Francisco’s 2023 payroll commitments are presently estimated around $133MM, per Roster Resource. They’ve opened seasons with player spending upwards of $200MM in previous seasons, and while those heights were reached before the pandemic, they’re still well shy of last year’s $155MM Opening Day figure. The long-term books are almost bare, with just over $20MM in guaranteed commitments for 2024. By 2025, the club has only a $3.5MM player option for Wilmer Flores on the ledger. In that context, it’s easy to understand president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi declaring at the GM Meetings earlier this month that “from a financial standpoint, there would be nobody that would be out of our capability.”

That includes Judge, who’s expected to land the largest deal of the offseason. He set the AL home run record with 62 home runs and hit .311/.425/.686 through 157 games. It’d have been nearly impossible to draw up a better platform season, and while Judge certainly can’t be expected to replicate that kind of production, he’s now a career .284/.394/.583 hitter in over 3000 MLB plate appearances. Few players are more imposing offensive forces. Judge also typically rates as an above-average defensive right fielder and played reasonably well over 632 2/3 innings of center field work for the Yankees this past season. He’d probably be a better fit for the corner in spacious Oracle Park, but his play in right field would upgrade an outfield defense that was among the league’s worst this year.

MLBTR predicts Judge to land an eight-year deal worth $332MM; the $41.5MM average annual value would rank second all-time, while it’d be the largest overall guarantee for a free agent in history. While the Yankees and Giants are generally perceived as the favorites in the bidding, he’s also been linked to the Dodgers. Feinsand first reported last month that L.A. was considering the possibility of jumping into the Judge market while contemplating kicking Mookie Betts into second base. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reiterated the Dodgers’ interest last week.

Of course, there are myriad possibilities for the Giants (and other big-spending teams) beyond Judge. San Francisco has also been connected to the top free agent shortstops available — Trea Turner, Carlos Correa, Dansby Swanson and Xander Bogaerts — as well as center fielder Brandon Nimmo. San Francisco also has needs in the bullpen and could look to make a splash at the top of the rotation. There are a number of avenues for Zaidi and his front office to explore, starting at the very top of free agency.

Giants Interested In Brandon Nimmo, Cody Bellinger

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The Giants have been frequently speculated as a fit for Aaron Judge, but their offseason won’t entirely revolve around him. According to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle, the club will be looking for two outfielders this winter and have checked in on both Brandon Nimmo and Cody Bellinger.

What sets Nimmo and Bellinger apart from most of the other free agent outfielders is the ability to play a competent center field. As noted by Slusser, the Giants’ outfield defense graded out poorly in 2022. The club used a hodgepodge of different options throughout the year, including Steven Duggar, Mauricio Dubon, Austin Slater, Mike Yastrzemski, Luis González, Jason Krizan, Stuart Fairchild, Joc Pederson, Bryce Johnson and Lewis Brinson. Defensive Runs Saved pegged them at -44, easily the worst in baseball with the Pirates next on the list at -33. Outs Above Average gave them a -25, tied with the Phillies for last. Only Ultimate Zone Rating was gentler, as their -21.8 in that category was 29th, edging out the White Sox. That’s a pretty unanimous assessment that says this is an area the club can upgrade, and having a reliable guy to pencil in there every day would certainly be appealing.

There are a handful of players who can provide help with the defensive side of things, such as Brinson, Jackie Bradley Jr., Brett Phillips, Bradley Zimmer, but they would likely be liabilities at the plate. Nimmo and Bellinger, however, have the potential to provide on both sides of the ball, though Bellinger’s offensive performance has been in quite an extended rut. Ever since injuring his shoulder during an ill-advised celebration in the 2020 postseason, he’s seemed lost at the plate. He mashed his way to MVP honors in 2019 by hitting 47 home runs and batting .305/.406/.629. His production slipped a bit in 2020 before he hit just .193/.256/.355 over 2021 and 2022 combined.

Whether he can get his offense back on track will be a key question, but he should have a decent floor thanks to his speed and defense. He was considered league average by DRS and UZR in 2022 while OAA was more enthused, giving him a mark of six for the year. He also swiped 14 bags this season, allowing him to be worth 1.7 fWAR despite the tepid work with the bat. Bellinger’s agent, Scott Boras, recently said that the outfielder will be looking for a one-year deal and it’s perhaps worth noting that this situation is at least mildly reminiscent of Carlos Rodón one year ago. Both players are represented by Boras and were entering free agency as talented players but with question marks about their consistency. The Giants and Rodón agreed to a two-year deal but with the southpaw afforded an opt-out to return to the open market after one season. Bellinger is apparently just looking for a straight one-year pact but perhaps the Giants will be the ones to step up and make that happen.

Nimmo’s case is less mysterious, at least in terms of his offense. He’s been fairly consistent at the plate, having an OBP of at least .367 in six straight seasons while keeping his wRC+ at 134 or higher over the past three. He had some durability concerns earlier in his career but has only had one significant injury absence over the past three years, which was due to a finger contusion in 2021. The defensive reviews are mixed, with both DRS and UZR giving him a negative number in 2020 and 2022 but a positive mark in 2021. OAA went negative in 2020 but has been positive the past two seasons. Wobbles from year to year with defensive metrics aren’t unheard of and it seems fair to expect Nimmo to provide at least average-ish glovework up the middle.

The problem with that stronger profile in recent seasons is that he will certainly cost much more than Bellinger. MLBTR projected him for $110MM over five years, or $22MM per season. Their payroll is currently around $133MM in the estimation of Roster Resource. That’s well shy of last year’s $155MM Opening Day figure and their franchise record of $200MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, but that doesn’t mean they will do everything they set their sights on. Given that the Giants have also expressed an interest in Judge, the top free agent shortstops and retaining Rodón, adding multiple nine-figure contracts is a bit tough to see. Then again, if the Giants end up missing on a few of their other targets, they should have plenty of payroll space to work with.

Whether they prioritize Nimmo or Bellinger, they will have competition. The Blue Jays are known to be interested in both Nimmo and Bellinger, while the Mets would like to bring Nimmo back to Queens.

Offseason Outlook: San Francisco Giants

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The Giants have been conservative with their spending during the Farhan Zaidi era, which has led to inconsistent results. Their 107-win campaign in 2021 was excellent but they followed that up with an exact .500 season in 2022. All signs point to this being the offseason that the wallet opens, with many possible routes to take, one of which leads to Bay Area native Aaron Judge.

Guaranteed Contracts

Total 2023 commitments: $89.15MM
Total future commitments: $111.15MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2023 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

It’s a time of transition in San Francisco, with the veterans of the last era making way for the fresh faces of the new one. On the heels of an unexpected renaissance in 2021, Buster Posey decided to retire on a high note. In 2022, they couldn’t keep the magic going, with injuries putting a damper on Brandon Crawford, Tommy La Stella, Evan Longoria and Brandon Belt. Those latter two names are now free agents and might not be back, while the former two are each entering the final years of their respective contracts.

How they proceed with this era will be fascinating to watch, with many possible paths ahead of them. Since Farhan Zaidi was named president of baseball operations four years ago, the club has generally avoided long contracts, attempting to build around their veteran core with modest signings, waiver claims and prospects. (It’s worth noting they did reportedly offer Bryce Harper $310MM over 12 years, per Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area, but a deal didn’t come together.) As mentioned, the results have been mixed. They hovered around .500 in three of the four seasons since his hiring, with the 107 wins in 2021 as the huge exception.

The upside of that conservatism is the that club’s payroll is wide open. In the short term, Roster Resource estimates their 2023 payroll to currently be around $132MM. That’s well shy of 2022’s Opening Day figure of $155MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, as well as their franchise high of $201MM from 2018. The long-term picture is even better, with modest amounts still owed to Anthony DeSclafani and Wilmer Flores in 2024 and nothing besides the Flores option for 2025 and beyond. That leaves essentially all avenues open to them this winter. “From a financial standpoint, there’s nobody that would be out of our capability,” Zaidi recently told reporters, including Pavlovic.

Since no one is off the table, many people have set their sights on the very top of the free agent market, which is Aaron Judge. Towering above everyone else in more ways than one, Judge has been speculated as a fit for the Giants due to his Bay Area roots. He was born in Sacramento and raised in Linden, which is about a two-hour drive from Oracle Park. The Yankees will likely be highly motivated to prevent the Giants from poaching him, given Judge’s tremendous abilities and star power. However, there’s really nothing to make the fit in San Francisco impossible at the moment. Though Judge will command a mammoth contract, with MLBTR predicting $332MM over eight years, the Giants are one of the teams that can afford it.

In terms of the on-field fit, the Giants could make it work with Judge or just about any free agent. In recent years, they have targeted players with defensive versatility, which should help them juggle the puzzle pieces around, regardless of who they eventually acquire. The current outfield mix consists of players like LaMonte Wade Jr. Mike Yastrzemski, Luis González and Austin Slater. There’s also Joc Pederson, who received and accepted the qualifying offer in the past week. However, he had poor defensive numbers in 2022 and could be slated for significant time as the designated hitter. Though those outfielders all have their merits, none of them would stand in the way of Judge. Wade has spent some time at first base in recent years and could theoretically do that more going forward to de-clutter the outfield, if necessary.

The infield is currently a hodgepodge of multi-positional players, outside of Crawford. There’s Flores, La Stella,  Thairo Estrada, J.D. Davis and David Villar, along with some depth options. Those players all have at least some ability at more than one position, giving the club plenty of flexibility in how they make their moves going forward. They have been rumored to be considering the top free agent shortstops, in addition to their interest in Judge. The fit might be awkward for one season, with Crawford being a fan favorite and face of the franchise. He has 10-and-5 rights and isn’t likely to end up traded. It’s possible the club could sign a shortstop to play second or third for one season, then have them slide over after Crawford’s contract expires. This would be somewhat akin to the Dodgers acquiring Trea Turner while they still had Corey Seager at short. Turner played second after the trade deadline in 2021 and then moved over to short for 2022 after Seager signed with the Rangers. Turner is now one of the “Big Four” free agent shortstops alongside Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson. They will all likely be able to secure nine-figure contracts but, as mentioned, the Giants are well positioned to make such a move.

Behind the plate is another area where the club could consider making an investment. Joey Bart has long been considered one of the club’s most exciting prospects, but he’s yet to permanently cement himself at the big league level. He was blocked by Posey for a while but finally got some significant playing time in 2022. In 97 games, he hit .215/.296/.364 for a wRC+ of 90. That’s roughly league average offensive production for a catcher, though it came with a concerning 38.5% strikeout rate. On the other side of the ball, Bart got negative grades from both Defensive Runs Saved and the FanGraphs framing metric. He’s about to turn 26 and could still take steps forward but the club will likely want to have other options on hand. The only other backstop currently on the 40-man roster is Austin Wynns, who had a fine showing in a backup role in 2022. However, the Giants could find other options, with free agents like Omar Narváez, Tucker Barnhart, Austin Hedges and Roberto Perez available in free agency. A bigger splash on someone like Willson Contreras is something they could afford if they aren’t really committed to giving Bart a chance, though they some more focused on other areas of the roster.

While Belt and Longoria have spent significant time with the Giants and are notable departures for nostalgia reasons, the club’s most significant free agent loss is Carlos Rodón. The lefty has long been known as a very talented pitcher, but one who struggled to stay healthy. He had a strong 2021 that erased many of those injury concerns, though not all. He pitched 132 2/3 innings for the White Sox with a 2.37 ERA but seemed to run out of gas down the stretch. The Sox were concerned enough not to give him a qualifying offer. The Giants pounced and gave Rodón a two-year, $44MM deal, though one that allowed him to opt out after the first year and return to free agency as long as he pitched 110 innings. He shot way past that, finishing the season at 178 frames and a 2.88 ERA, further distancing himself from those previous injury concerns. He made the easy decision to opt out and will now be looking for a huge payday, even after rejecting a qualifying offer from the Giants.

Zaidi has said that the club will try to retain Rodón, but they will certainly have competition. The Rangers are already known to be interested, for instance. Even without Rodón, the rotation isn’t in terrible shape. On paper right now, it would be Logan Webb, Alex Cobb, Anthony DeSclafani, Alex Wood and Jakob Junis. Webb and Cobb have each been good in each of the past two seasons. Wood’s 2021 ERA of 3.83 jumped to 5.10 in 2022, but with fairly similar rate stats and advanced metrics. DeSclafani is less certain at this point because his strong 2021 was followed by a frustrating 2022. He made just five starts before ankle surgery ended his season. Junis had some success in a swing role last year before getting bumped into the rotation, though his results declined after that. There’s some decent ingredients in there, though the group would certainly benefit from retaining Rodón and bumping Junis back into the bullpen. If they miss on Rodón, there are plenty of other starting pitchers available, with Justin Verlander and Jacob deGrom at the top of the market, followed by guys like Nathan Eovaldi, Chris Bassitt, Jameson Taillon, Taijuan Walker and many more.

In the bullpen, Camilo Doval seems to have stepped up and grabbed hold of the closer’s role. He tossed 67 2/3 innings in 2022, striking out 28% of batters faced and finishing with a 2.53 ERA. Those results came in high-leverage situations, with Doval racking up 27 saves. He’s yet to reach arbitration and can be retained cheaply for years to come. There are some more seasoned options behind him, like John Brebbia and Tyler Rogers. Like all clubs, the Giants are a candidate to grab a reliever or two. There are dozens of options, including Adam Ottavino, Carlos Estevez and Andrew Chafin, but perhaps the most fun reliever to consider is Taylor Rogers signing to join his twin brother Tyler.

In the end, there’s no shortage to what the Giants can do this winter. They have as much payroll flexibility as any contender and plenty of ways to use it. That could be a huge splash like Aaron Judge, one of the big shortstops, an ace for the rotation — or spreading the money around more evenly on a bunch of mid-market options. They could plausibly be connected to most of the free agents this offseason and will surely make significant moves of some kind. Just about everything is on the menu and fans are expecting a feast of giant proportions.

In conjunction with this post, Darragh McDonald held a Giants-centric chat on 11-21-22. Click here to read the transcript.

Mitch Haniger Drawing Interest From Several Teams

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Nov. 21: Both the Dodgers and Angels have also expressed interest in Haniger, tweets MLB.com’s Jon Morosi.  For the Dodgers, who non-tendered Cody Bellinger and played utilityman Chris Taylor as their most frequent left fielder in 2022, Haniger could split time between left field and designated hitter (likely pushing Taylor to the infield, where Trea Turner could potentially depart).

Over in Anaheim, Haniger would likely supplant former top prospect Jo Adell, who’s yet to establish himself as a big league regular in parts of three seasons (161 games, 557 plate appearances).

Nov. 20: Though a high ankle sprain and a two-week stint on the COVID-related injured list limited Mitch Haniger to only 58 games last season, the outfielder is drawing a lot of attention on the free agent market.  According to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, the Giants and Rangers are two of the clubs looking at the former All-Star.

Haniger hit .246/.308/.429 with 11 homers over 247 plate appearances in 2022, which translated to a solid 113 wRC+.  He hit for a lot (47.2%) of hard contact, and considering how teams increasingly used the shift to limit Haniger’s numbers over the last two seasons, the changing shift rules for 2023 might lead to Haniger better translating those hard-hit balls into base hits.

Due to a ruptured testicle and a torn adductor muscle, Haniger played in just 63 games in 2019 and he missed the 2020 season entirely.  Returning for a full season in 2021, Haniger hit .253/.318/.485 with 39 homers in 691 PA — pretty close to the production the outfielder delivered in his first two seasons with the Mariners in 2017-18.

Between this health history, his lack of a real platform season, and his age (32 in December), Haniger faces an interesting trip in free agency.  Despite all the drawbacks, MLBTR still projected him for a three-year, $39MM deal based on how well Haniger has performed when healthy.  It is possible Haniger might pursue a deal with an opt-out clause after the first season, or perhaps just a straight one-year deal entirely so he can re-enter the market next winter on the heels of what he hopes will be a healthier and more productive 2023 season.  Or, it wouldn’t at all be surprising if Haniger wanted to lock in a multi-year commitment now, given how injuries have already sidetracked his career on multiple occasions.

Beyond just his ability at the plate, Haniger has also generally displayed above-average glovework in right field.  That would make him a particularly good fit with a defensively-conscious team like the Giants, and his right-handed bat would balance out a lefty-heavy outfield mix of Joc Pederson, LaMonte Wade Jr., Mike Yastrzemski, and Luis Gonzalez.  If San Francisco did sign Haniger, the Giants might then dangle one of their other outfielders in trade talks, or perhaps just use Wade more frequently at first base.

The Rangers, of course, are very familiar with Haniger after seeing him as an opponent for so many years in the AL West.  Texas also has a need in the outfield, with Adolis Garcia the only real lock for everyday playing time and Leody Taveras perhaps also favored for regular work in center field.  Haniger could slide into the right field mix and put Garcia in left field, and Haniger could also get some DH at-bats when Brad Miller takes a seat against left-handed pitching.

The Giants and Rangers are expected to be two of the offseason’s most aggressive teams, with San Francisco looking to bounce back after a disappointing 81-81 season and Texas trying to get back to winning baseball after six straight years under the .500 mark.  Both clubs have money to spend, and it’s probably worth noting that Haniger might be a backup plan to Aaron Judge in San Francisco, given how the Giants have been so frequently tied to the Bay Area native on the rumor mill.  If Judge’s asking price gets too high for the Giants’ liking, they could perhaps pursue an alternate route of signing Haniger for right field and then splurging on another top free agent (like one of the major shortstops, or an ace pitcher).  The Rangers are expected to be focusing much of their winter efforts on rotation upgrades, but bolstering the lineup is also on the to-do list.

Giants Interested In Kenley Jansen

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Kenley Jansen has drawn interest from the Giants, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reports (Twitter link).  The veteran reliever is a free agent for the second straight winter, after signing a one-year, $16MM deal with the Braves last offseason.

There is plenty of familiarity between Jansen and the Giants, and not only because San Francisco spent 12 seasons in direct competition with the closer back when Jansen pitched with the Dodgers.  As Morosi notes, both Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi and manager Gabe Kapler were also working for Los Angeles back when Jansen wore the Dodger Blue.

The Giants have been active in retooling a bullpen that was pretty uninspiring in 2022, as the team has already parted ways with Dominic Leone, Jarlin Garcia, Zack Littell, Alex Young, and Mauricio Llovera.  Signing Jansen would be a bold way of upgrading the relief mix, as Kapler could alternate between Jansen and incumbent closer Camilo Doval for save situations.  The Giants have preferred a little ninth-inning flexibility during Kapler’s three years as manager, though Jake McGee received the bulk of save opportunities in 2021 and Doval the majority of chances in 2022.  McGee’s early-season struggles and eventual release paved the way for Doval to become more or less the full-time closer this past season, and the Giants might prefer to return Doval to a high-leverage role behind an established closer.

Jansen is entering his age-36 season, but continued to pitch well in recording an NL-best 41 saves with Atlanta last season.  The right-hander had a 3.38 ERA and his usual set of excellent strikeout, hard-hit ball, and fastball spin rates, though there were a few question marks.  Jansen’s barrel rate was below-average for the first time since 2018, and for the third straight season, he had a subpar walk rate.  On the plus side, Jansen’s 8.5% walk rate at least represented an improvement from an ugly 12.9% mark in 2021 that sat near the bottom of the league.

Between that walk rate, Jansen’s age, and perhaps just the limited timeframe of the lockout-shortened offseason, Jansen could only find a one-year contract last winter.  However, his strong performance with the Braves has MLBTR projecting him for a two-year, $26MM contract this winter.

Any number of teams with more glaring needs at closer than San Francisco could be more willing to bid on Jansen’s services, yet it is quite possible he would have interest in a return to the NL West and a reunion with Zaidi and Kapler.  The Giants are also planning to return to contention, and while splurging on a reliever isn’t usually Zaidi’s preferred strategy, the team has plenty of available payroll space and is expected to be quite aggressive in the free agent market.

National League Non-Tenders: 11/18/22

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The deadline to tender contract to arbitration-eligible players is tonight at 7:00pm Central. Here’s a rundown of the players on National League teams that have been non-tendered today. This post will be updated as more decisions are revealed. All players non-tendered go directly to free agency

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected salaries for all arb-eligible players last month.

Later Updates

  • The Reds have non-tendered righty Daniel Duarte and minor league outfielder Allan Cerda, taking both off the 40-man roster. Neither had been eligible for arbitration, but Cincinnati will send both into free agency without having to place either on waivers. Duarte made three relief appearances this year, his first as a big leaguer. Cerda, 23 next month, has yet to reach the majors. He hit .198/.350/.401 in 257 plate appearances in Double-A. Cincinnati also announced that six players designated for assignment earlier this week — Aristides Aquino, Jared Solomon, Kyle Dowdy, Derek Law, Art Warren and Jeff Hoffman — were all let go. Both Duarte and Cerda have already agreed to re-sign with Cincinnati on minor league deals, reports Mark Sheldon of MLB.com (Twitter link).

Earlier Moves

  • The Braves freed a pair of 40-man roster spots by non-tendering minor league pitchers Brooks Wilson and Alan Rangel. Rangel spent most of this past season in Double-A, while Wilson didn’t pitch in 2022. Atlanta also announced that three players non-tendered earlier this week — Guillermo Heredia, Jackson Stephens and Silvino Bracho — have been let go.
  • The Giants have non-tendered relievers Mauricio Llovera and Alex Young and infielder Donovan Walton, clearing three spots on the 40-man roster. Walton was acquired from the Mariners midseason and hit .158/.179/.303 in 24 games with San Francisco. Young made 24 appearances after his contract was purchased from the Guardians. Llovera pitched 17 times after signing a minor league deal last offseason. Additionally San Francisco non-tendered seven players who’d been designated for assignment earlier this week: Drew Strotman, Meibrys Viloria, Colton Welker, Jarlin Garcia, Dom Nunez, Sam Delaplane and Jason Vosler.
  • The Pirates non-tendered lefty Manny Banuelos and catcher Tyler Heineman. Both had been designated for assignment earlier this week.
  • The Diamondbacks non-tendered righty Reyes Moronta, the team announced. The reliever posted a 4.50 ERA in 17 outings with the Snakes after being claimed off waivers from the Dodgers.
  • The Padres announced they’ve cut loose catcher Jorge Alfaro and righty Efrain Contreras. Alfaro had been projected at a $3.6MM salary this season, a hefty amount after a .246/.285/.383 season. Contreras hasn’t pitched in the majors; he had a tough year in High-A and loses his 40-man spot spot as a result.
  • The Cubs have non-tendered center fielder Rafael Ortega, as well as minor league pitchers Brailyn Marquez and Alexander Vizcaino. Ortega has seen a decent amount of action the last two years and had a respectable .241/.331/.358 line through 371 plate appearances this past season. Nevertheless, the Cubs opted against a salary in the $1.7MM range for next year. Marquez has been a top pitching prospect but has battled injury issues for the past few years. Vizcaino was part of the Anthony Rizzo trade with the Yankees but didn’t pitch in the minors this year.
  • The Nationals non-tendered righty Tommy Romero. He’d been designated for assignment earlier this week. Washington confirmed the previously-reported decisions to part with Luke Voit and Erick Fedde.
  • The Brewers cut loose right-handers Trevor Gott, Jandel Gustave and Luis Perdomo. All three were part of Milwaukee’s middle innings mix, with Gustave’s 45 appearances the most among that group. Gott had a 4.15 ERA over 45 2/3 innings after signing a free agent deal last offseason.
  • The Rockies non-tendered infielder/outfielder Garrett Hampson, the club announced. The 28-year-old had been projected for a $2.1MM salary. A speedster with the ability to play anywhere up the middle, Hampson just hasn’t hit at the big league level. He’s coming off a .211/.287/.307 showing through 226 plate appearances.
  • The Mets announced they’ve non-tendered Sean Reid-Foley and confirmed they’re letting go of Dominic Smith, who’s non-tender was previously reported. This year, Reid-Foley made seven MLB appearances, tossing 10 innings of relief.
  • The Dodgers have non-tendered infielder Edwin Rios and utilityman Luke Williams, per a club announcement. Los Angeles also confirmed the previously reported non-tender of former MVP Cody Bellinger. Rios has shown some offensive promise in the past and owns a .212/.299/.492 line through 112 big league games. He missed a good chunk of this past season with a hamstring strain. Williams was claimed off waivers from the Marlins recently; the Dodgers could look to bring him back on a minor league deal.
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