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Offseason Outlook: Toronto Blue Jays

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here to read the other entries in this series.

With many of their best young position players now in the majors, the Blue Jays will focus on augmenting that group with some pitching.

Guaranteed Contracts

Other Money Owed

  • Troy Tulowitzki, SS: $18MM through 2020 ($14MM salary, $4MM buyout of 2021 club option)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

The Blue Jays wasted little time in adding to the rotation this offseason, acquiring righty Chase Anderson from the Brewers and exercising the $8.5MM club option on Anderson’s services for the 2020 season.  The soon-to-be 32-year-old Anderson is also controllable via a $9.5MM club option for 2021, making him more than just a pure single-season pickup.

Anderson hasn’t been overly impressive over the last two seasons, totaling 1.5 total fWAR and a 105 ERA+ over 297 innings. He has worked mostly as a starter, though Milwaukee also tended to limit Anderson’s outings before he faced batters for a third time last season.  Still, he has been a relatively durable pitcher over those two years and there is some potential in a change of scenery, even to the tough AL East.

As a pitcher with some degree of success over six MLB seasons, however, Anderson still represents an upgrade for one of the league’s shakiest rotations in 2019.  Trent Thornton and Jacob Waguespack are also tentatively penciled into the 2020 starting five based on their generally average results from last season, while Ryan Borucki is an even bigger maybe given that he only pitched 6 2/3 Major League innings due to recurring elbow problems.  Matt Shoemaker is also looking to return from an injury-shortened year, though perhaps due to some unease about his projected $3.8MM arbitration salary and how Shoemaker will rebound from a torn ACL, the Jays haven’t gotten far in contract talks with the veteran righty.

Anthony Kay, T.J. Zeuch, Sean Reid-Foley, and Thomas Pannone will also be competing for spots in Spring Training.  Top prospect Nate Pearson is likely to debut sometime in 2020, if almost certainly not on the Opening Day roster (for both service-time reasons and because Pearson has only 18 IP at the Triple-A level).

Since 2020 will be another rebuilding season for the Jays, they will have time to evaluate these and probably many other young arms to see who could factor into the plans for 2021, the date that team president/CEO Mark Shapiro and GM Ross Atkins have loosely (though far from officially) mentioned as the starting point for a new era of competitive baseball in Toronto.  The front office has been clear, however, that more new faces will be added to the pitching mix, and the Blue Jays will be willing to spend beyond the level of just veteran reclamation projects, i.e. their acquisitions of Clayton Richard or Clay Buchholz last offseason.

There’s certainly room in the budget, as Roster Resource projects the Jays for a payroll of just under $70.25MM, and even that number could drop by a few million if a few arbitration-eligible players are non-tendered.  Looking ahead to 2021, the Jays will have only Randal Grichuk and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. on the books since Troy Tulowitzki’s contract will finally be up.

There isn’t any financial reason Toronto couldn’t make a notable signing now, perhaps in the spirit of the Nationals’ deal with Jayson Werth in the 2010-11 offseason, which served as an announcement that a rebuilding team was ready to turn the corner.  That being said, the Jays might have to severely overpay to convince a top-tier free agent (who surely would prefer to join a ready-made contender) to join a club that might not be ready to compete by 2021 at the earliest.

Yet while the likes of Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, Zack Wheeler, or Hyun-Jin Ryu probably aren’t feasible, names such as Kyle Gibson, Julio Teheran, Tanner Roark, Wade Miley, Rick Porcello, or maybe even Dallas Keuchel (who the Jays reportedly had some interest in last winter) could be possible fits, perhaps in some cases just on one-year contracts.

Beyond free agency, the Anderson acquisition could hint at the Jays’ optimal strategy for using their payroll space.  The Blue Jays only gave up a minor prospect to take over the rights to Anderson’s option years from Milwaukee, and Toronto could similarly target other mid-range or better pitchers on teams that are looking to cut spending, whether it’s mid-market clubs like the Brewers or bigger-spending organizations who are looking to avoid the luxury tax.

This strategy could also be used to land position players, though the Blue Jays hope they have most of their everyday core already in place.  Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will be at third base, Bo Bichette at shortstop, Cavan Biggio at second base, and Gurriel in left field as the most promising cornerstones of the rebuild.  Catcher Danny Jansen, first baseman Rowdy Tellez, and outfielder/DH Teoscar Hernandez are the somewhat less settled members of the group, with Reese McGuire also perhaps vying for a timeshare with Jansen behind the plate.  Grichuk is the veteran member of the bunch with the long-term contract, though he’ll be looking to bounce back after a subpar 2019 season.

Justin Smoak’s free agency leaves a hole in the first base/DH mix, and the Jays have a vacancy in either center field or right field (whichever position isn’t filled by Grichuk).  Derek Fisher is the favorite for one outfield job, competing with other unproven candidates like Anthony Alford, Billy McKinney, or Jonathan Davis, while Brandon Drury is a utility option at multiple positions but has to rebound from a sub-replacement performance.

It’s possible Toronto could simply stick with all of these in-house options in a development year to see what they really have for the future.  For instance, the exact alignment and/or multi-positional ability of the current players may still be in question, as Atkins has suggested that Gurriel could potentially again be a candidate for second base work or Hernandez could even see some time at first or second base.  Biggio has also already bounced around a few different positions besides second base, and speculation persists that Guerrero could end up as a first baseman sooner rather than later.

The Jays might prefer to save any major acquisitions until the team knows what additions are specifically needed to be a contender.  Rather than splurging on a Nicholas Castellanos or Marcell Ozuna, the Blue Jays could look for players on one-year deals.  A veteran middle infielder (this year’s version of Freddy Galvis or Eric Sogard, essentially) would be useful, or a left-handed bat to balance out a mostly right-handed collection of outfielders.

Speaking speculatively, a reunion with Sogard would make sense.  Bringing back Smoak could also be a fit, while a bounce-back candidate like Travis Shaw might also be someone who gets a look for the first base position.  Free agent Jason Kipnis is a left-handed hitter who can play at second base and in the outfield, and has past ties to Shapiro and Atkins from their time in Cleveland.  Atkins has also said that the Jays have some interest in a trio of Japanese players (corner outfield slugger Yoshitomo Tsutsugo, rangy center fielder Shogo Akiyama and glove-first infielder Ryosuke Kikuchi) who will be available via free agency or the posting system at what should be a relatively modest price.

It wouldn’t be out of the question to see Toronto clear some room by packaging one or two of their surplus players in a trade.  Jansen and McGuire have already drawn interest, and players like Hernandez, Tellez, or any of the less-established outfielders could be trade bait if the Blue Jays feel they could consolidate two players they feel okay about into one player they really like.

Speaking of trade chips, while Atkins hasn’t heard many trade rumblings yet about Ken Giles, the closer clearly seems like perhaps the least-likely Blue Jay to be with the team come Opening Day.  Giles quite probably would have been dealt already, had it not been for an ill-timed injury in the days leading up to the July 31 trade deadline.  Giles is coming off an outstanding season that will push his price tag to a projected $8.4MM in his final arbitration year, though there figures to be some solid interest given the long list of teams in need of bullpen reinforcements.

That list actually includes the Jays themselves, who will be in the market for extra relievers even before their eventual need to replace Giles at closer.  Toronto has made a habit of acquiring veteran relievers (i.e. Daniel Hudson, David Phelps, Seunghwan Oh, Joe Smith) to short-term deals and then flipping them at the trade deadline, so expect the team to again revisit this tactic this winter.  Left-handed relief is a priority, as since Tim Mayza will miss 2020 due to Tommy John surgery, the Blue Jays only have three southpaws (Borucki, Pannone, Kay) on their current 40-man roster.

The Jays have already added one veteran with upside in claiming right-hander Anthony Bass from the Mariners.  A reunion with Ryan Tepera could also be a possibility, even though Toronto outrighted him off the 40-man roster, leading Tepera to opt for free agency.

Though the Blue Jays had the fifth-worst record (67-95) in baseball last season, they find themselves in position for a much more intriguing offseason than some of the other lesser lights who are in earlier stages of rebuilds.  While there’s still a lot of uncertainty throughout the roster, the Jays have graduated their first wave of young players to the big leagues who can be reasonably counted on as building blocks, so there’s room for the club to be aggressive if it feels the end of the rebuild is near.  The types of pitching additions Toronto makes this winter could provide some interesting hints about where the Jays feel they are in their path back to contention.

Blue Jays Notes: Giles, Japanese FAs, Gurriel, Hernandez

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While Blue Jays reliever Ken Giles looks like an obvious offseason trade candidate, general manager Ross Atkins indicated Tuesday it’s not a sure thing the team will deal him. “We’ve been really focused on acquiring players. We really haven’t engaged on trading players away much at all,” Atkins said in regards to Giles (per Jon Morosi of MLB.com). The flamethrowing Giles may have been out of Toronto by now had he been healthy at the July 31 deadline, but elbow issues helped prevent a trade from coming together. The 29-year-old was utterly brilliant in 2019, though, as he recorded a 1.87 ERA/2.27 FIP with 14.09 K/9, 2.89 BB/9 and 23 saves on 24 tries over 53 innings. Giles is now going into his final season of arbitration, in which he’s projected to make an affordable $8.4MM.

Here’s more on Toronto, all of which comes courtesy of Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet (Twitter links: 1, 2, 3, 4)

  • The Blue Jays have interest in Japanese free agents (or soon-to-be free agents) Yoshitomo Tsutsugo, Shogo Akiyama and Ryosuke Kikuchi, Atkins revealed. Tsutsugo’s a 27-year-old corner outfielder who has smacked 205 home runs in exactly 4,000 plate appearances in Nippon Professional Baseball. The Yokohama DeNA BayStars intend to post him by Dec. 5. Akiyama will try to parlay a strong nine-year run with the Seibu Lions of NPB into a major league contract. The 31-year-old center fielder, who won’t be subjected to the posting system, may have the highest upside of the three when it comes to earning power, as MLBTR projects he’ll rake in a two-year, $6MM guarantee this offseason. Kikuchi, a member of NPB’s Hiroshima Carp, will be posted after eight seasons with the club. The 29-year-old second baseman has not been an offensive standout in Japan, but he has thrived defensively.
  • Toronto’s at least considering using outfielders Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Teoscar Hernandez in the infield next season, per Atkins. Gurriel began his career as a middle infielder, but he struggled enough there that the team shifted him to left field in 2019. That experiment paid off, though it’s reportedly possible Gurriel could be an offseason trade chip for the club. As for Hernandez, although the .230/.306/.472 line he put up in 464 plate appearances this year doesn’t look great, he did go on a second-half tear and finish with 26 home runs. But Hernandez had difficulty in center field, where he accounted for minus-7 Defensive Runs Saved and a minus-7.7 Ultimate Zone Rating. Going forward, he might see time at first and/or second, Atkins suggested. Toronto looks to be in fine shape at the keystone, where Cavan Biggio enjoyed a terrific rookie season, though first is a question mark. Justin Smoak’s a free agent, and Rowdy Tellez didn’t have an especially successful year.

Latest On Blue Jays, Matt Shoemaker

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Blue Jays right-hander Matt Shoemaker seems open to signing a multiyear deal with the club, but the two sides haven’t made progress in contract talks, according to Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet. There’s a hesitance on the team’s part to give Shoemaker two guaranteed years or even one with a vesting option including performance-based escalators, Nicholson-Smith reports.

While Toronto’s reluctant to commit to Shoemaker, that doesn’t necessarily mean his time with the team is up. The Blue Jays could still welcome back Shoemaker in 2020, his last arbitration-eligible season, on what MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects would be a reasonable $3.5MM salary (the same amount he collected this season). The Jays have preferred to cut that down to $3MM with a club option for 2021, but Shoemaker hasn’t bit, Nicholson-Smith relays. Should no compromise come together by the Dec. 2 non-tender deadline, the team could cut ties with Shoemaker.

A former Angel, with whom he endured multiple injury-limited seasons, Shoemaker joined the Jays in free agency last winter and then got off to an encouraging start. He took the ball five times and amassed 28 2/3 innings of 1.57 ERA/3.95 FIP pitching with 7.53 K/9, 2.83 BB/9 and a 51.4 percent groundball rate before an injury cut him down yet again. Shoemaker tore his left ACL in late April and didn’t pitch for the rest of the season, though he does seem to be progressing well in his recovery.

Whether the Jays bring back Shoemaker could inform their offseason plans to some degree. Even though the club doesn’t look as if it’ll contend for a playoff spot in 2020, it nonetheless seems likely to push for rotation help in the next few months. The Jays already acquired one starter – former Brewer Chase Anderson – and it’s doubtful he’ll be the last one they trade for or sign prior to next year.

Blue Jays Notes: Gurriel, Starters, Tepera

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The latest on Toronto…

  • The Blue Jays could consider trading outfielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr., “especially if it brings the right rotation arm back,” Scott Mitchell of TSN tweets. The 26-year-old Gurriel just put up an impressive season at the plate, having batted .277/.327/.541 with 20 home runs in 343 attempts. The former middle infielder also fared decently in his debut as a major league outfielder, as Gurriel logged minus-2 Defensive Runs Saved with a plus-0.2 Ultimate Zone Rating across 532 innings in left. Between the promising production Gurriel registered in 2019 and his team-friendly contract (he’s owed just $15.9MM through 2023), it seems likely he’d draw plenty of interest if Toronto were to market him.
  • The Blue Jays already swung a trade for a starter earlier this month, acquiring right-hander Chase Anderson from the Brewers. While the Jays could continue to explore that route for much-needed rotation help, it also wouldn’t be a surprise to see the club pick up help via free agency. President of baseball operations Mark Shapiro has indicated the Jays have interest in the best starter available, Gerrit Cole, but a match there doesn’t look realistic. Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet runs down some more likely possibilities, naming an array of starters whom Toronto could pursue. Zack Wheeler and Jake Odorizzi are a couple on the higher end of the spectrum, though signing either qualifying offer recipient would be expensive from a draft standpoint for the Jays. As Nicholson-Smith notes, adding one of the two could cost the Jays a top 50 pick in 2020.
  • As for how the Blue Jays could attract free agents, general manager Ross Atkins contends (via Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi): “The agility of our roster, the depth of our system, the financial flexibility that we have, the leadership of (manager) Charlie Montoyo and the environment of our clubhouse are all very attractive.” Gregor Chisholm of the Toronto Star argues now is the time for Atkins and the Jays to use their financial flexibility to court Cole or Stephen Strasburg, but he admits ownership – Rogers Communications – would likely stand in the way.
  • Reliever Ryan Tepera elected free agency last week after Toronto designated him for assignment, though his Jays tenure might not be done. On the possibility of re-signing Tepera, Atkins said (via Nicholson-Smith): “We maintain interest in him. If there’s a way for him to pitch for the Blue Jays again, we’ll absolutely make that happen.” The 32-year-old Tepera was an important part of the team’sbullpen from 2015-18, but elbow problems hampered him during a 21 2/3-inning 2019 in which he pitched to a 4.98 ERA.

Blue Jays’ Catchers Drawing Trade Interest

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Pitching is the Blue Jays’ top priority this winter, and Toronto has already made one notable move on that front with its acquisition of Chase Anderson from the Brewers.  It remains to be seen whether the Jays will look to free agency or further trades to upgrade its staff, though in regards to the latter option, Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi reports that Toronto’s “catchers have also been drawing interest from other clubs” in preliminary trade discussions.

Danny Jansen handled the bulk of the work behind the plate for the Jays last season, hitting only .207/.279/.360 over 384 plate appearances but displaying some excellent defensive prowess in his first full MLB campaign.  Both StatCorner and Baseball Prospectus cited Jansen as one of the league’s best pitch-framers, with BP also highly praising Jansen’s blocking skills.  The 24-year-old held his own at throwing out baserunners, stopped 19 of 61 stolen base attempts.

It was quite a performance for a player who was more touted for his offensive skill coming up through the farm system, and if Jansen can improve to even average production with the bat, he’ll be a very valuable catcher going forward.  This could also make him an interesting trade chip, though since Jansen is controlled through the 2024 season, the Jays would certainly want a solid return for his services.  It could ultimately make for a tough negotiation since a rival team could rightly argue that Jansen hasn’t yet shown much hitting skill at the big league level.

Ultimately, there’s probably more evidence that the Jays still see Jansen less as a trade chip and more as their catcher of the future, so that could make Reese McGuire more expendable.  An oblique injury sent Luke Maile to the injured list in July and limited him to just three games for the remainder of the season, as McGuire went on a hot streak and more or less entered into a timeshare with Jansen down the stretch.

Selected 14th overall by the Pirates in the 2013 draft, McGuire was rather surprisingly traded to Toronto in a 2016 deadline deal, packaged with fellow prospect Harold Ramirez and veteran lefty Francisco Liriano for right-hander Drew Hutchison.  The trade was mostly about unloading Liriano’s $18MM in remaining salary for the Bucs, leaving the Jays to potentially reap the benefits from a catcher who has hit very well (.297/.343/.539 with seven homers in 138 PA) in his brief Major League career.  McGuire also has above-average blocking and framing grades — something of the opposite of Jansen, McGuire was considered more of a glove-first catcher during his time in the minors.

This leaves Maile looking like a potential non-tender candidate unless the Jays can find a trade partner.  The veteran is projected to earn only $800K in arbitration this winter, though may no longer have a spot on Toronto’s roster if Jansen and McGuire are the new regular duo.  Maile turns 29 in February, and hit a respectable .248/.333/.366 over 231 PA in 2018, though that solid season was sandwiched between two very poor years at the plate in 2017 and 2019.

The Blue Jays could also look to move younger catchers from within their farm system.  Gabriel Moreno (#8), Alejandro Kirk (#12), and Riley Adams (#27) are all ranked within MLB Pipeline’s list of the top 30 Jays prospects.  Adams is the most developed, with 81 games at Double-A last season, while Kirk reached the advanced A-ball level and Moreno spent all of 2019 at Single-A Lansing.

Ryan Tepera Elects Free Agency

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Right-handed reliever Ryan Tepera has elected free agency, according to MLB.com’s transactions page. The Blue Jays designated Tepera on Monday, but because he has more than three years of service time, he was able to reject an outright assignment in favor of free agency.

Tepera enjoyed a long run as a member of the Blue Jays, who chose him in the 19th round of the 2009 draft. He debuted in 2015 and was especially productive from 2016-17, a 142 1/3-inning stretch in which he logged a 3.60 ERA with 9.42 K/9 and 3.48 BB/9, before falling off this season.

Elbow troubles (including late-May surgery) limited Tepera to just 21 2/3 innings in 2019, during which he posted a 4.98 ERA/6.03 FIP with a paltry 5.82 K/9 against 3.32 BB/9. The 32-year-old saw his average fastball velocity drop from the 95 mph range to 93.7 in the process, while his swinging-strike rate fell from 14 percent in 2018 to 12.6 this season. Needless to say, this isn’t an ideal time to reach free agency for Tepera, who had been projected to earn $1.6MM in arbitration before Toronto cut him loose.

AL East Notes: McNeil, Rays, Didi, Shapiro

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“The Rays were focused on” super-utilityman Jeff McNeil in trade talks with the Mets last offseason, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports.  McNeil’s multi-position ability and pre-arbitration salary status make him an ideal target for the Rays, making Sherman wonder if Tampa Bay could again target McNeil this winter, though the Mets’ asking price has surely gone up in the wake of McNeil’s outstanding 2019 season.  Sherman’s piece floats some potential trades to help the Mets address their center field need, including his speculative suggestion of a Kevin Kiermaier/Yonny Chirinos for McNeil swap.  The Rays would get their desired “low-cost Swiss Army Knife” of a player and also get Kiermaier’s contract off the books, with Chirinos involved to add a young arm to New York’s rotation and entice the Mets to swallow Kiermaier’s $36MM in remaining salary.  Sherman looks further within the AL East to cite the Red Sox as another possible trade partners for the center field-needy Mets, as Jackie Bradley Jr. could be available, or there’s always the “pipedream” of a one-for-one swap of Mookie Betts for Noah Syndergaard.

More from around the East…

  • The Yankees decided against issuing a one-year, $17.8MM qualifying offer to Didi Gregorius, leaving SNY.tv’s Andy Martino wondering if the shortstop’s days in the Bronx could be over.  One industry source describes the chances of Gregorius returning to New York in 2020 as “a very close call,” especially since Martino notes that Gregorius and his representatives believe they can find a multi-year deal in free agency.  Even after an injury-shortened down year, Gregorius is still the best shortstop option on the free agent market; MLBTR ranked him 12th on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agents and predicted he’d land a three-year, $42MM contract.  It’s worth noting that this deal would work out to less in average annual value than the one-year cost of the QO, so it isn’t out of the question that the Yankees could still try to bring back Gregorius for multiple years, though at a smaller hit to their 2020 luxury tax number.
  • Blue Jays president/CEO Mark Shapiro discussed Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s offseason training regiment, baseball labor relations, and some hot stove business amidst a variety of topics in a radio interview with The Fan 590’s Scott MacArthur, Ashley Docking, and Mike Zigomanis (audio link).  The Blue Jays are known to be looking for pitching this winter, with Shapiro saying “we’re going to have to be aggressive on every level of the free agent starting pitcher landscape.”  This could mean at least checking into the top-tier names on the pitching market, though given Shapiro also noted that “if you look at the history of free agent pitching contracts, it is a really, really, really high-risk area to play in.”  All things considered, the odds seem to be against Toronto landing an elite arm like Gerrit Cole at this point in their rebuilding process.  “Dollars are not going to be our challenge, which hasn’t always been the case,” Shapiro said.  “It’s going to be where we fit with Gerrit’s alignment of interests…same thing with every free agent we pursue.  What I am confident is, that throughout the free agency process we’ll be able to get better this winter, and we’ll have the resources to do it.”
  • There have been rumors about a possible extension between Shapiro and the Blue Jays since 2020 is the last year of the CEO’s deal, though he didn’t give any new details on that front.  Shapiro did reiterate his desire to stay in Toronto and “I’ve received nothing but positive feedback from the people that I report to about wanting me to remain here.”

Pirates Considering Ben Cherington As Baseball Operations Head

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Blue Jays VP of baseball operations and former Red Sox general manager Ben Cherington is a candidate to be the Pirates’ next head of baseball operations, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports (Twitter link).  Cherington has worked for Toronto for the last three-plus seasons, after taking a little over a year away from baseball after being fired by the Sox in August 2015.

Cherington joins Pirates assistant GM and current acting general manager Kevan Graves as the only known candidates to take over the Pittsburgh front office.  Other notable names have already been mentioned as potential candidates, including another name from the Jays in senior VP of player personnel Tony LaCava, and another former Red Sox GM (and Orioles GM) in Dan Duquette.  Interviews with potential candidates were expected to begin this week, though there isn’t yet any indication that Cherington has officially sat down with Pirates top brass.

The Pirates cleaned house after 69-93 season that was disastrous on and off the field, as the club parted ways with manager Clint Hurdle, team president Frank Coonelly, and GM Neal Huntington, though all in somewhat staggered fashion over the course of a month.  Travis Williams has already stepped in as the new team president, though the managerial search that was already weeks old was put on pause while Huntington’s replacement was found.

After Theo Epstein departed the Red Sox following the 2011, Cherington (following 13 years in various role in Boston’s front office) took over as general manager.  His tenure with the club saw the Sox finish in last place in the AL East in 2012, 2014, and 2015, yet win the World Series in 2013, giving him one of the most unusual resumes of any top executive in recent memory.  While several mid-tier acquisitions were key to the 2013 championship, Cherington was hampered by bigger-ticket signings that didn’t pan out, most notably Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval.  Cherington was credited, however, with the development of such young starts as Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, Rafael Devers, and Eduardo Rodriguez, all of whom were either drafted or largely developed during Cherington’s time as general manager.

Multiple teams have had interest in hiring Cherington for GM openings in recent years, though he declined interviews last year, with Rosenthal reporting at the time that Cherington was mostly interested in a situation that would allow him to completely rebuild a team.  The Pirates could represent such a situation, as while the team has talent on hand, an argument could be made that a revamp could be necessary before the Bucs are able to again be truly competitive in the tough NL Central.

Devon Travis Elects Free Agency

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The Blue Jays announced that second baseman Devon Travis has rejected an outright assignment in favor of free agency. He’s now eligible to sign with any club.

This was the obvious outcome when Toronto announced that Travis had cleared outright waivers earlier in the week. Any player with three or more years of Major League service time — Travis has four-plus years — has the right to reject an outright assignment in favor of free agency, and virtually every such player who is outrighted this time of season opts to test the open market.

Travis, who’ll turn 29 in February, at one point looked to be the Blue Jays’ second baseman of the future. Acquired in a one-for-one swap that sent outfielder Anthony Gose to the Tigers nearly five years ago to the day, Travis burst onto the scene the following season with a .304/.361/.498 batting line, eight homers and 18 doubles in just 239 plate appearances. Despite being promoted to the Majors in early April that year, Travis was limited to 62 games as a result of a shoulder issue that twice put him on the shelf for at least a month.

Injury notwithstanding, a strong impression was made, and the following season gave further reason for optimism. Upon returning from surgery to repair that balky shoulder, Travis appeared in 101 games and hit .300/.332/.454 with 11 homers, 28 doubles and a triple in 432 plate appearances. Through the first two (injury-shortened) seasons of his career, Travis carried a .304/.342/.469 slash (116 OPS+) and looked well on his way to a quality big league career.

Unfortunately for both Travis and the Jays, knee troubles set in during the 2016 postseason, and his recovery from that issue proved far more cumbersome than his recovery from the 2015 shoulder troubles. A bone bruise in the 2016 ALCS led to offseason knee surgery for Travis, and he underwent a second procedure on that knee the following summer. Those injuries contributed to a miserable season at the plate in 2018, and in Spring Training 2019, Travis underwent surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his other knee. Multiple setbacks in his recovery followed, and Travis didn’t play at all this past season.

In all, since that promising two-year stretch to open his career, Travis has appeared in just 153 games over a three-year period and posted a lackluster .242/.280/.400 batting line with 16 homers and 32 doubles in 575 plate appearances. It’s clear that he possesses plenty of raw ability, though with shoulder surgery and a trio of knee operations all coming before his 29th birthday, it’s fair to wonder just how much his body will allow him to tap into that talent. He may have to settle for a minor league pact to prove he’s healthy enough to return to his once-productive ways. Any club that signs him would be acquiring multiple years of control, as Travis is nine days shy of five years of Major League service time, meaning he’d remain arbitration-eligible through the 2021 campaign.

Blue Jays Designate Ryan Tepera, Outright Devon Travis

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The Blue Jays have dropped two notable players from their 40-man roster today, per Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca (via Twitter). Reliever Ryan Tepera was designated for assignment while infielder Devon Travis was outrighted.

Both of these players had been eligible for arbitration. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected Tepera to earn $1.6MM and Travis to take home $1.95MM through the process.

It is at least a bit of a surprise to see the departure of Tepera, who just celebrated his 32nd birthday. The righty had mostly been a sturdy member of the Toronto relief corps before running into trouble in 2019. He ended the year with 21 2/3 innings of 4.98 ERA ball, with 5.8 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9. Tepera lost a good bit of fastball velocity but still managed a 12.6% swinging-strike rate.

Travis just hasn’t been able to get fully healthy since starting his time with the Jays with such promise. He appeared in 103 games last year, but showed poorly both at the plate (.232/.275/.381) and in the field (-6 DRS, -8.5 UZR). Travis never suited up this year as he battled ongoing knee problems.

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