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Nationals Latest Offer To Bryce Harper Reportedly “Much More” Than $300MM

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The twists and turns keep coming in the public on-again off-again courtship between the Washington Nationals and free agent outfielder Bryce Harper. The Athletic’s Jim Bowden tweeted last night that the Nationals latest offer to Harper was actually “much more” than the $300MM commonly quoted. Per Bowden, the 10-year, $300MM offer was merely the first offer the Nationals made to their erstwhile superstar. The offer as stated – seen by many as the low-end of what Harper might expect – has been the single biggest signifier that the Nats are ready to move on from Harper, but the ongoing entanglement between the two sides is evidently more complex.

There’s lots to read into this, of course, especially given recent rumblings about Harper. In the context of the White Sox being unwilling to move beyond a 7-year bid, sources from 670 The Score’s Bruce Levine said that Harper has multiple ten-year offers in hand. Presumably, this meant offers from multiple teams, but given the lack of specifics, we have been left to speculate about which teams might have already extended such a deal.

The Cubs are keeping tabs, but it doesn’t appear as if they’ve made an offer. The Phillies would be most people’s guess, but Harper himself didn’t attend Philly’s initial chat with Scott Boras during the winter meetings, which could presume it was more of a “testing of the waters” type precursor to the face-to-face meeting planned with Harper this week. There were mixed reports about the Dodgers meeting with Harper early in December, but besides the hailstorm of rumors set off by the Puig-Kemp trade, there hasn’t been much concrete linkage between the two sides since. The juiciest bit of news has been the recent report of a five-hour meeting just before Christmas between Harper, Boras, and Nationals owner Ted Lerner. Matter of fact, Levine’s mention of ten-year “offers” could just as easily refer to multiple ten-year offers from the Nationals. Combine that with Bowden’s tweet from last night and it’s hard not to put the Nats in pole position at this stage. Still, until something more concrete comes from Harper’s camp, the best we have is conjecture.

East Notes: Harper, Cespedes, O’s, Perez, Yankees, Tulo

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Bryce Harper and agent Scott Boras had a five-hour meeting with Nationals owner Ted Lerner on December 22, Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post reports.  Sources from within the team declined to confirm that such a meeting took place, which Janes describes as “a departure from their relative openness about their status with Harper this winter.”  One possibility is that Lerner held the meeting without informing anyone else in the organization, which Janes notes “has happened before,” though it could be that the front office is keeping quiet on details either as a gamesmanship tactic (to drive up Harper’s price for other teams), or because an ardent pursuit of the free agent outfielder is underway.

This is the latest twist in the perhaps-ongoing courtship between Harper and the Nats, as ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan reported earlier today that Harper had had “multiple” meetings with team representatives.  Boras and Lerner have a longstanding professional relationship that has resulted in several high-profile Boras Corporation clients (i.e. Stephen Strasburg, Max Scherzer) sign extensions or free agent deals with Washington.  Boras has also often bypassed general managers to negotiate directly with ownership in some particularly major contracts, and he has signaled this intent in regards to Harper’s market this offseason.

Some more from around both the NL East and AL East…

  • There had already been some indication that the Mets weren’t expecting Yoenis Cespedes to play in 2019 as the outfielder recovers from a pair of heel surgeries, and special assistant Omar Minaya reiterated as much in an interview on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (hat tip to MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo).  “If [Cespedes] gives us anything this year, that is great, we’re happy for that,” Minaya said.  Cespedes’ first procedure in late July carried a rough timeline of eight-to-ten months before a return to baseball activities, and no update to that timetable was made after Cespedes underwent his second surgery in late October.  Cespedes has long been plagued by a variety of lower-body injuries, and since signing a four-year, $110MM deal with the Mets prior to the 2017 season, the outfielder has played in just 119 games.  As it stands, New York’s starting outfield consists of Michael Conforto and Brandon Nimmo in the corners, Juan Lagares in center field, and the newly-acquired Rajai Davis as the fourth outfielder.  The Mets have been linked to other outfielders on the rumor mill, however, so it is quite possible more changes could come before Opening Day.
  • The Orioles have hired Koby Perez as the team’s new Senior Director of international scouting, as per a team press release.  The 40-year-old Perez spent the last three seasons as the Indians’ director of Latin American scouting, his most recent stop in a career that has spanned 12 seasons and included roles as a crosschecker and scout with Cleveland, Philadelphia, and St. Louis (Perez and Orioles GM Mike Elias both worked as scouts in the Cardinals’ organization for two years).  Under his new title, as per the press release, “Perez will oversee all aspects of the Orioles’ international scouting operations and management of the club’s bonus pool.”  The Orioles have been notoriously indifferent to the international market for years, though this focus began to change even prior to Elias’ hiring, as Baltimore made a strong attempt to sign both the Mesa brothers and Sandy Gaston this fall.  Going forward, it certainly seems as if the O’s will now be as aggressive and thorough in locating and signing international prospects as any club in the sport.
  • The Yankees’ signing of Troy Tulowitzki doesn’t mean the team is out on Manny Machado by any means, Joel Sherman of the New York Post opines as part of a seven-tweet thread (all linked here).  That said, the Yankees wouldn’t publicize being out of the Machado sweepstakes anyway, as such a statement would violate Collective Bargaining Agreement rules about teams weighing in on free agents.  It also makes strategic sense for the Yankees to at least appear to still be in on Machado, if for no other reason than to force rival teams to spend more to sign him.  If Machado indeed doesn’t land in New York, Sherman feels the Yankees could address their infield needs by signing a player like Neil Walker or Adeiny Hechavarria to provide short-term help until Didi Gregorius is able to return.  Sherman suggests that infield help could also be found as part of a Sonny Gray trade package.

Passan’s Latest: Harper, Profar, Gray, Ray, Grandal, Pollock, Ender

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It’s too soon to count out a reunion between Bryce Harper and the Nationals, ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan writes in his latest column, as “Harper has met multiple times with representatives” from the team.  In a rather surprisingly open interview last month, Nats managing principal owner Mark Lerner said his organization wasn’t willing to go beyond the ten-year, $300MM extension it offered Harper after the season, though rumors have continued to swirl that Washington is still at least monitoring Harper’s market.  It could still be some time before we have an answer about Harper’s 2019 destination, as the outfielder (like many Scott Boras clients) is in no rush to sign a contract that doesn’t meet his satisfaction.  The Phillies and White Sox, Passan reports, are willing to guarantee Harper at least a ten-year deal, indicating that the two teams have at least made some progress in their pursuit of the free agent outfielder, though obviously the gigantic dollar figure Harper is demanding is still a very notable obstacle.

Some more hot stove items from Passan….

  • Before the Rangers dealt Jurickson Profar to the Athletics as part of a three-team trade with the Rays, Texas also explored another three-team scenario involving the Yankees and Braves.  “There was traction, at one point,” Passan writes about a deal that would have seen the Yankees get Profar, the Braves get Sonny Gray, and Texas would have received a prospect (presumably from Atlanta’s farm system).
  • The Diamondbacks would only consider trading Robbie Ray for a very big return, with Passan noting that Arizona would want more for Ray than the Mariners received from the Yankees for James Paxton back in November.  While both Ray and Paxton are front-of-the-rotation southpaws with two remaining years of team control, Ray is almost three full years younger than Paxton, which would explain Arizona’s higher asking price.  That deal saw Seattle land an MLB-ready pitching prospect (Justus Sheffield), another young arm on the brink of the majors (Erik Swanson) and a promising lower-level position player (outfielder Dom Thompson-Williams).  It’s a steep price tag, though at least two teams with a lot of minor league depth have been linked to Ray in trade rumors.
  • News broke last week that Yasmani Grandal turned down a four-year, $60MM offer from the Mets, though Passan says that such an offer was “never officially presented,” and that the terms were “characterized by sources on both sides as more of a discussion.”  Grandal’s market seems a little uncertain right now, due to the number of catcher-needy teams who have already found other backstops, and the looming presence of J.T. Realmuto on the trade market.  With draft pick compensation via the qualifying offer hanging over Grandal’s services, there is some threat of Grandal becoming (in the words of one executive) “this year’s version of Mike Moustakas,” i.e. a QO free agent whose market thins to the point that he is forced to accept a one-year contract.  Grandal accepting a one-year deal “remains unlikely but not out of question,” as per Passan, though the catcher and his camp are reportedly “staying patient” that a satisfactory multi-year deal will eventually surface.
  • A.J. Pollock is one of many big-name free agents whose markets may not get moving until Harper and/or Manny Machado sign new contracts.  As Passan notes, Pollock is a good fit for both the Phillies and White Sox, though those teams are more likely to focus on Harper and Machado before turning to backup plans.  Three executive tell Passan that Pollock’s situation bears similarity to Lorenzo Cain last winter, who had to wait until late January to find a new contract, though his market quickly heated up to the point that he was able to land a hefty five-year, $80MM deal from the Brewers.
  • We heard during the Winter Meetings about the Reds’ interest in Braves center fielder Ender Inciarte, though Passan writes that “talks stagnated” between the two sides, and Cincinnati then pivoted to acquire outfield help in the form of Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp.  Neither of those two are viable center field options, of course, so the Reds remain on the hunt for a replacement for Billy Hamilton.

East Notes: Manny, Yankees, Mets, Pollock, Britton, Nats

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A few notes from the East Coast, where the first day of 2019 is nearing an end…

  • Free-agent outfielder Bryce Harper raised eyebrows on social media last month when he “liked” an Instagram post relating to the Dodgers. Not to be outdone, fellow superstar free agent Manny Machado may have hinted about his own future plans on Instagram, as Jon Heyman of Fancred point outed out on Monday. Machado began following the YES Network, which broadcasts most Yankees games and which the franchise owns a portion of, only to quickly unfollow it when people took notice. Machado’s apparent interest in YES may be much ado about nothing, but for the moment, it has added a bit of intrigue to what looks like a three-horse race for his services.
  • Mets general manager Brodie Van Wagenen “remains engaged” on the trade market, according to the New York Post’s Mike Puma, who reports the team is seeking an outfielder, a reliever (preferably a lefty), starting pitching depth and a backup infielder. Signing free-agent outfielder A.J. Pollock would address one of those needs, though Van Wagenen implied last month that wouldn’t happen, and Puma hears the Mets are leery of giving the 31-year-old a big contract. Similarly, the Mets are “unlikely” to go after lefty reliever Zach Britton in free agency, Puma writes.
  • With the Nationals gearing up for the arrival of prospect Carter Kieboom, they may not sign a free-agent second baseman to anything more than a one-year deal, Brittany Ghiroli of The Athletic suggests (subscription required). The Nationals have shown interest in free agent DJ LeMahieu, but because he’s seeking a multiyear deal, there might not be a match between the sides. Free agent Brian Dozier, who could be in line for a one-year pact, would be a better fit, Ghiroli posits. The club has also expressed interest in Dozier this winter.

NL Notes & Rumors: Nats, Marwin, Jed, Pads, Fish, J.T., Braves, D-backs

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Free agents Marwin Gonzalez and Jed Lowrie are among several second basemen the Nationals have reached out to this offseason, Jamal Collier of MLB.com reports. The open market remains rife with familiar second basemen as the New Year approaches, though Gonzalez and Lowrie are likely the two best choices available. Both Gonzalez and Lowrie are accomplished switch-hitters, but the former is easily the more versatile of the two in the field. Gonzalez is capable of lining up everywhere in the infield and in both corner outfield positions. The Nationals, of course, will take a hit in the corner outfield if free agent Bryce Harper signs elsewhere, so Gonzalez would give them some more depth in the grass.

Here’s more from the National League:

  • The Padres, who are known to be in the hunt for the Marlins’ J.T. Realmuto, have shown more persistence than any other team in talks for the catcher, according to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. With two years of control left and Miami nowhere near contention, Realmuto could be the most obvious trade candidate in the game. However, the Marlins may have to lower their asking price in order for a deal to come together prior to next season. They’re said to want a return consisting of at least one elite prospect, and the Padres happen to boast baseball’s top-ranked farm system, per both Baseball America and FanGraphs. So, if the Padres are truly motivated to land Realmuto, they may be in better position than anyone else. That said, San Diego would not be a popular bet to contend in 2019 even with Realmuto, making it highly debatable whether the team should rob from its system in a win-now trade.
  • Given the needs in the Braves’ corner outfield and pitching staff, David O’Brien of The Athletic tweets that they and the Diamondbacks could be logical trade partners. Outfielder David Peralta, left-hander Robbie Ray and righty Zack Greinke may all be fits for the Braves, O’Brien posits, though he notes the Diamondbacks would have to eat a significant portion of the $95.5MM left on Greinke’s contract to make him a realistic possibility for Atlanta. There are no weighty financial obligations for either Peralta or Ray, who are each under affordable arbitration control through 2020. The Braves have already come up short in an attempt to acquire Peralta this offseason, though, and the D-backs don’t seem willing to part with Ray.
  • Sticking with the Braves, they may pursue free-agent closer Craig Kimbrel if he becomes willing to accept a three-year offer, per Mark Bowman of MLB.com. That looks rather unlikely, however, considering Kimbrel’s current asking price reportedly ranges anywhere from $86MM to upward of $100M. Nevertheless, it would be interesting to see the Braves in the race for Kimbrel, whom they drafted in 2008 and helped develop into one of the greatest closers ever. Kimbrel, now 30, was a Brave from 2010-14 before moving on to the Padres and Red Sox.

Market Notes: Cruz, Harper, Kluber, Bauer, Ottavino, Harrison

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Prior to this morning’s agreement with the Twins, slugger Nelson Cruz received “competitive” offers from both the Rays and Astros, according to Juan Toribio of The Athletic (Twitter link) and Fancred’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link). Specifics aren’t known, but it seems likely that the Twins would’ve had to outbid either by a fairly notable margin, given that the Rays won 90 games last season while the Astros won the 2017 World Series and appeared in a second consecutive American League Championship Series this past season. Minnesota ultimately secured Cruz with a $14.3MM bid that includes a $14MM salary for the 2019 season and a $12MM club option ($300K buyout) for the 2020 campaign. If Houston or Tampa Bay is still keen on adding a notable right-handed bat, there should be numerous options in play. The rebuilding Tigers, for instance, would likely be willing to move Nicholas Castellanos as he enters his final season of club control. The Cardinals, meanwhile, could move Jose Martinez to an American League club that’d be better suited to mask his defensive shortcomings at the DH spot.

Some more notes on the both the trade and free-agent markets…

  • The Cardinals have been an oft-speculated landing spot for Bryce Harper but have not been rumored to have any meaningful interest in the market’s top free agent. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch explored the situation in his latest Q&A with readers, explaining the numerous reasons that the Cardinals feel a pursuit of Harper would differ from their prior pursuits of huge contracts for David Price, Jason Heyward and Giancarlo Stanton. Above all else, it seems that the sizable discrepancy between Harper’s asking price and even those other substantial contracts is a roadblock for the St. Louis front office. The Cards also don’t have the personal connection with Harper that they had after a year of having Heyward in the clubhouse, and they’re generally averse to the leverage that opt-out clauses provide players on lengthy free-agent deals.
  • In an appearance on MLB Network’s Hot Stove this morning, Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com downplayed the possibility of the Indians trading a top starter (video link). “I don’t think it’s particularly likely they move either Corey Kluber or Trevor Bauer at this moment,” said Castrovince, citing sources with the Indians. While he cautioned that things can change with a single call or text, the roughly $21MM saved in trades of Yan Gomes, Edwin Encarnacion and Yonder Alonso has alleviated pressure to pare back payroll from its record levels in a 2018 season that saw the total attendance decline. That, of course, doesn’t mean rumors or conversations surrounding Kluber will cease — they assuredly will not — but it’s worth keeping in mind when parsing the inevitable continuation of Kluber rumblings. More than 18,000 readers voted in last night’s MLBTR poll asking whether Cleveland would actually trade Kluber, and the response was a near-even split (52-48 in favor of Kluber being moved).
  • The White Sox, Red Sox and Rockies are all maintaining some level of interest in free-agent reliever Adam Ottavino, tweets Jon Morosi of MLB.com. As one of the top relievers on the market, the 33-year-old Ottavino should have no shortage of clubs inquiring about his services, though the asking price on top-end bullpen arms could prove prohibitive for some clubs. To this point, Jeurys Familia (three years, $30MM), Joe Kelly (three years, $25MM) and Andrew Miller (two years, $25MM) are among the relievers MLBTR ranked in Ottavino’s tier of free agency to have cashed in quite nicely. Given his 2.43 ERA, 2.74 FIP, 2.82 SIERA and 13.0 K/9 mark, Ottavino figures to have a fairly high ask, as well. The interest from each of the three teams listed by Morosi has been previously reported, and there are some issues with some of the fits. Adding Ottavino, for instance, could push the Red Sox back into the top tier of the luxury tax bracket. And the Rockies spent more than $100MM on their ’pen last winter, which could make them reluctant to add a fourth reliever on the type of multi-year contract Ottavino should ultimately command.
  • Heyman tweets that infielder/outfielder Josh Harrison has current interest from the Nationals, Reds, Rangers, Giants and Brewers, and he could ultimately generate interest from teams like the Yankees, Phillies and Dodgers — depending on how their pursuits of the market’s top free agents pans out. (Presumably, the Phillies or Yankees would have interest in the event that either failed to land Manny Machado.) Harrison would give the Nats a potential regular option at second base, while the Rangers are in need of a third baseman following the trade of Jurickson Profar. Joe Panik’s stock is down in San Francisco, and the Brewers, too, are in need of an everyday option at either second or third (depending on where they play Travis Shaw in 2019). The fit for the Reds is a bit more muddied, as Harrison would appear to be more of a bench option there, though it’s worth noting that he is a Cincinnati native.

Nationals Sign Anibal Sanchez

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The Nationals on Thursday announced the signing of free-agent righty Anibal Sanchez, to a two-year contract with a club option for a third season. Sanchez is said to be guaranteed $19MM on the contract, which reportedly contains some relatively minimal deferrals. Sanchez is represented by agent Gene Mato.

Anibal Sanchez | Courtesy of Nationals Communications

Sanchez, 35 in February, will reportedly earn a $6MM salary in 2019, $7MM in 2020 and will have the additional $6MM of his $19MM guarantee deferred to 2021. That leaves the Nats with more financial breathing room as they look to continue adding to the 2019 roster, although it doesn’t lower the luxury tax hit that comes with Sanchez’s contract. The 2021 club option is valued at $12MM, and Sanchez can reportedly earn another $4MM of incentives.

Sanchez steps into the rotation spot that was recently vacated when Tanner Roark was traded to the Reds. While Sanchez, it seems, won’t come to the Nats at a significantly lower rate than the $9.8MM at which Roark was projected (via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz). However, unlike Roark, who exhibited numerous red flags in 2018 (e.g. diminished velocity, strikeout, home-run and ground-ball rates), Sanchez enjoyed a legitimate renaissance with the Braves in 2018 and looks in many regards to be trending back up.

After joining the Braves on a minor league contract in Spring Training, the veteran Sanchez not only worked his way onto the roster but emerged as one of Atlanta’s most reliable arms. In 136 2/3 innings, the former Marlins/Tigers hurler worked to a terrific 2.83 ERA with 8.9 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 0.99 HR/9 and a 45 percent ground-ball rate.

While Sanchez undoubtedly has his skeptics given the dreadful manner in which his time with the Tigers ended, a look at his secondary metrics and pitch selection gives every reason to continue to be optimistic in 2019. Sanchez dramatically ramped up the usage of his cutter this past season, leading to increases in both his swinging-strike and opponents’ chase rates. Where Sanchez truly shined, however, was not necessarily in terms of missing bats (though his strikeout rate was strong) but rather in terms of generating weak contact. Per Statcast data, no qualified starting pitcher in baseball had a lower average exit velocity on balls in play than Sanchez, and no pitcher in the game allowed less hard contact than the minuscule 25.8 percent clip that Sanchez yielded.

Clearly, the Nationals are buying the new and improved version of Sanchez. While there’s likely some regression in store — it’s not reasonable to expect him to replicate a league-best ability to minimize hard contact, and Sanchez did benefit from both a 79 percent strand rate and .255 average on balls in play — at two years and a total of $19MM, the Nats aren’t exactly paying him to be the dominant buzzsaw that he was in Atlanta this past season. If Sanchez can even function as a competent mid-rotation piece, that’d be a more than acceptable price to pay. And, if he outperforms Roark by any appreciable sum, then the decision to jettison him in favor of Sanchez will look all the more shrewd, given the comparable salary figures.

[Related: Updated Washington Nationals depth chart and Nationals payroll outlook]

Sanchez will slot into the Nationals’ rotation behind a stacked top three that features three-time Cy Young winner/future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer, former No. 1 overall pick Stephen Strasburg and 2018 breakout star Patrick Corbin — another offseason addition for general manager Mike Rizzo and his staff. That quartet, paired with one of Joe Ross, Erick Fedde or perhaps another yet-to-be-acquired starting pitcher, should comprise one of the game’s most formidable starting staffs as the Nationals look to reemerge as contenders in an increasingly difficult division on the heels of a down year for the organization.

From a 2019 payroll vantage point, this deal won’t likely change much from the way things looked a week ago, prior to the trade of Roark, and the same is largely true with regard to the Nationals’ luxury tax ledger. As such, the addition of Sanchez shouldn’t have any impact on the Nationals’ ability to make another run at retaining Bryce Harper, though recent comments from managing principal owner Mark Lerner suggest that Harper’s time with the Nats may indeed be up.

If that’s indeed the case, the organization will have essentially spread out much of the money that could’ve gone to Harper across a number of offseason additions, having already signed Corbin, Sanchez, Kurt Suzuki and Trevor Rosenthal in addition to trading for Kyle Barraclough and Yan Gomes. With Sanchez now in the fold, the Nationals project at just north of $200MM in terms of both actual 2019 payroll and luxury tax payroll. That leaves about $6MM to work with to remain under the luxury barrier, though they exceeded that threshold last season, so there’s clearly no ownership mandate not to cross that point.

Sanchez’s deal may seem steep to some, given the lasting impression from his final years in Detroit. However, the general parameters of this contract align with the two years and $22MM forecast on MLBTR’s Top 50 free agent rankings/contract predictions. For those who played along in MLBTR’s Free Agent Prediction Contest, just 1.88 percent of participants correctly pegged Sanchez as a future National.

Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press broke the news that Sanchez was signing with the Nats (Twitter links). Fancred’s Jon Heyman added information on the third-year option (Twitter links), and Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post tweeted the yearly breakdown of the contract.

3 Remaining Needs: NL East

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There’s been no division in baseball more active than the National League East this offseason, as the Mets (Robinson Cano, Edwin Diaz, Wilson Ramos), Phillies (Jean Segura, Andrew McCutchen), Nationals (Patrick Corbin, Anibal Sanchez, Yan Gomes, Kurt Suzuki) and Braves (Josh Donaldson, Brian McCann) have each made multiple additions with an eye toward contending in 2019. That said, with the New Year fast approaching, each of those teams — and the cellar-dwelling Marlins — still have work to do and various needs to address. Here’s a look at what work remains to be done in one of the game’s most competitive divisions (teams listed in order of 2018 standings)…

Atlanta Braves

  • Add a starter to the top half of the rotation. Mike Foltynewicz had a breakout season in 2018, while Sean Newcomb showed plenty of potential. The July addition of Kevin Gausman gave Atlanta another quality mid-rotation option, they’ve also lost arguably their most effective (and certainly their most surprising) rotation member in Sanchez, who has agreed to terms with the division-rival Nats. The Braves aren’t lacking on intriguing options to round out the rotation (e.g. Touki Toussaint, Luiz Gohara, Kolby Allard, Max Fried, Mike Sorokia, Kyle Wright), but there’s a clear lack of an established top-of-the-rotation arm.
  • Address the vacancy in right field. Nick Markakis is a free agent and wasn’t able to sustain the eye-opening power surge he displayed through the season’s first six weeks. The venerable 35-year-old would be a fine option to return and man the position even if he shouldn’t be expected to repeat his 2018 numbers. The recent contracts for Andrew McCutchen and Michael Brantley subtracted two quality options from the open market, leaving top free agent Bryce Harper and a host of part-time veterans (e.g. Adam Jones, Carlos Gonzalez) as open-market alternatives.
  • Bolster the bullpen. Arodys Vizcaino currently slots in as the projected closer, with A.J. Minter and Dan Winkler among the intriguing younger options. Veterans Darren O’Day and Jonny Venters bring plenty of talent but plenty of injury risk. Many of the young starters who don’t land in the rotation could be ’pen options, as well, but there are obvious opportunities for a veteran arm to solidify the relief corps.

Washington Nationals

  • Solidify second base. Howie Kendrick and Wilmer Difo are the Nationals’ top two options at present, but the former is coming off a season mostly lost to a ruptured Achilles tendon while the latter has yet to prove he can hit Major League pitching. Short-term veterans like Brian Dozier and Josh Harrison could serve as a bridge to top prospect Carter Kieboom, who could very well be the Nats’ long-term option there.
  • Explore options for the fifth spot in the rotation. Adding a fifth starter isn’t necessarily an imperative for the Nationals, but a veteran to push Joe Ross and Erick Fedde for that slot could prove prudent — especially with Ross entering his first full season back from Tommy John surgery. Starting pitching is a clear strength, but the Nationals’ upper-level options in Triple-A are largely underwhelming, which makes a veteran addition, even on a minor league deal, all the more logical.
  • Continue to monitor Bryce Harper’s market. It’s quite possible that Harper’s time in D.C. is legitimately over, especially considering the fact that he rejected a 10-year extension offer worth a reported $300MM in late September. But if Harper’s market doesn’t develop as strongly as agent Scott Boras hopes, the Nats should be looming on the periphery of the market to see if there’s a possible compromise to be had with their longtime star.

Philadelphia Phillies

  • Acquire an impact bat. Wise or not, the Phillies set their fans’ expectations as high as possible when owner John Middleton said earlier this offseason that he could get “a little stupid” with the money that he spent in free agency this winter. Philly has been connected to Harper and Manny Machado for so long, that some fans will consider it an outright failure if at least one of the two isn’t in manager Gabe Kapler’s Opening Day lineup.
  • Upgrade the middle of the rotation. Of course, even if Bryce and Manny end up elsewhere, the Phils could still craft a winning path. Beyond pursuing any and all creative options that can be placed on the table, Matt Klentak and company would do well to bolster an already solid rotation. While it was generally an area of strength in 2018, and could be again without modification, the rotation is also an obvious place for the Phillies to slot in a significant (or even blockbuster) addition. Opportunity remains in both trade and free agency. If an acquisition results in a hurler such as Nick Pivetta, Vince Velasquez, or the rehabbing Jerad Eickhoff being knocked into the bullpen for some or all of the season, well, that’s a nice luxury to have.
  • Add to the back end of the bullpen. The Phils have some interesting youthful power arms along with a few respected veterans in their current bullpen mix, but it’s far from a standout group on the whole. Given the whispers regarding the team’s willingness to part with Tommy Hunter and/or Pat Neshek, it does not seem as if the front office is entirely satisfied with the current unit, either. This is one of a few clubs that could easily afford to splurge on Craig Kimbrel, not that we’ve seen any real indication of a connection. A variety of other notable relief targets are still floating around the market as well.

New York Mets

  • Figure out who’s playing center field. On paper, it’s possible to imagine a situation where Michael Conforto or Brandon Nimmo shares time in center with the right-handed-hitting Juan Lagares. And the Mets have already added center-field-capable veterans Rajai Davis and Gregor Blanco on minors pacts, perhaps hinting that they’ll be looking for a budget reserve piece to help keep up appearances while Yoenis Cespedes works back to health. But these are really half-measures, and the Brodie Van Wagenen-led Mets have set their sights on more than mediocrity. Will the team really fall back on Lagares in a significant role? Or is there another move yet to come? There were plenty of rumors about A.J. Pollock, who’d certainly fill the need, but Van Wagenen has also hinted the team may not put big money on the free agent table after already adding a few reasonably expensive pieces.
  • Improve the bench/pen depth. When you’re trying to take a team from 77 to 90+ wins in a competitive division, every little bit counts. If another more significant addition isn’t to be made, then perhaps the way to get better is to add a few lower-priced assets that can add major value in part-time roles. At present, the position-player reserve competition is set to include players such as T.J. Rivera, Dominic Smith, Gavin Cecchini, Luis Guillorme, and Dilson Herrera along with Davis and Blanco. Meanwhile, relievers battling for MLB spots include Drew Smith, Tim Peterson, Corey Oswalt, Chris Flexen, Paul Sewald, Jacob Rhame, Bobby Wahl, Kyle Dowdy, and Daniel Zamora. Put it all together and … there’s not a lot in the way of established MLB performance in those areas.
  • Trade Travis d’Arnaud or Kevin Plawecki. Re-shuffling things a bit might help the Mets make better use of resources. Having decided to go with Wilson Ramos behind the dish, the club seems to have one MLB catcher too many, particularly with Tomas Nido also available (with options) on the 40-man. A deal of either d’Arnaud or Plawecki seems all but certain. Turning one of those players into a decent reliever or worthwhile prospect would be a nice outcome.

Miami Marlins

  • Find a trade partner for J.T. Realmuto. Last winter, the Fish played coy on Christian Yelich but ultimately dealt him.They nevertheless held Realmuto — a decision that actually seems to have worked out. While he’s now just two years from free agency, Realmuto also firmly established himself as the game’s best overall catcher in the interim. Now, we’re seeing more talk about hanging onto him entering another rebuilding season. That seems only to be cover, though, because the risks greatly outweigh the upside (if any) in holding on to Realmuto to open the season. Several suitors have moved on, but others remain. The Marlins ought to pick the best bid in the coming weeks.
  • Acquire veteran outfield depth. This version of the Marlins is obviously going to be young and inexperienced. But that doesn’t mean that Derek Jeter and co. are interested in a re-boot of the Major League series set in South Beach. The new regime has spoken about the need for winning mentalities and the like. Meanwhile, it has a variety of talented young outfielders who’ll need time to finish their development and guidance in making the leap to the game’s top level. Last year, the Fish secured the services of Cameron Maybin. It seems a similar move would again be wise.
  • Be opportunistic on relievers late in the offseason. It’s never wise for a losing team to blow money on relief pitching. On the other hand, value bets in the bullpen are quite a nice strategy for a rebuilding organization. For one thing, a decent pen helps the club avoid depressing, late-game losses. For another, it is an easy and cheap avenue for infusing some of that ever-loved veteran presence into a locker room. And every contender in baseball will be looking for reliever reinforcements this summer, so it’s always nice to have a stock of potential trade chips on hand. Landing a few interesting arms shouldn’t be too hard to pull off. The Marlins have plenty of opportunities to offer up (including late-inning roles, potentially) and can use that, moreso than money, to lure a few hurlers who otherwise have slipped through the cracks.

Quick Hits: Acuna, Taylor, Rogers

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Ronald Acuna was the most-anticipated Braves prospect in decades, and in spite of the extreme hype, he managed to not only meet expectations, but surpass them in most cases. David O’Brien of The Athletic details an oral history in celebration of what’s known as the Year of Acuna. The phenom hit .293/.366/.552 en route to a 3.7 fWAR season that won him the NL Rookie of the Year award, and became the youngest player in history to hit a grand slam in the postseason. Because he opened the year in the minors, Braves fans will have the privilege of watching Acuna play in Atlanta for at least six more seasons.

A pair of other small items…

  • Although Nationals outfielder Michael A. Taylor struggled mightily at the end of the 2018 season, the club is hopeful that he’ll be able to revert to the promise he showed in a 3.1 fWAR 2017 campaign. Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post details the storyline as it stands, including a few poignant quotes from GM Mike Rizzo. “If he figures out the contact portion of it a little bit better, you are talking about a guy that could have five tools,” he explained. “He’s had flashes of it in the past and he just needs to be more consistent in his approach at the plate, because the kid’s a really good player.” While Taylor did indeed show a lot of talent in 2017, it’s well-worth noting that the biggest difference between that and his 2018 performance was a 43-point difference in BABIP. Still, Taylor’s power numbers inexplicably plummeted last season as well, leaving room for optimism in regards to a potential rebound.
  • Jake Rogers is still the Tigers’ catcher of the future, Anthony Fenech writes in a piece for Baseball America, but he’ll have to do better than the .219/.305/.412 batting line he posted across 408 plate appearances at Double-A Erie this past season. According to GM Al Avila, Rogers is likely to begin the 2019 season at that same level. “Depending on how spring training goes, we’ll make a decision there,” he said at the winter meetings. “But I would say we’re kind of leaning towards (Erie), just for his own good.” The Tigers would “like to see him improve upon the offense” before giving him a promotion to the minors’ highest level. Vice President of Player Personnel Dave Littlefield offered something in the way of optimism regarding Rogers’ capabilities, expressing “no doubt” that he’ll be able to make the necessary adjustments in his swing, adding that he improved late in the year with some minor tweaks. Rogers was taken in third round of the 2016 draft, and currently ranks 12th among Detroit’s prospects.

Nationals Have Shown Interest In Brian Dozier, Wade Miley

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The Nationals have expressed interest in free-agent second baseman Brian Dozier, Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post reports. They’ve also shown recent interest in free-agent left-hander Wade Miley, Dougherty adds, backing up an earlier report from Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic.

Dozier joins the previously reported DJ LeMahieu and Josh Harrison as free agents who have been on the radar of the second base-needy Nationals this winter. However, Dougherty casts doubt on the possibility of Washington reeling in LeMahieu, who figures to receive the richest contract among the three. Regardless, with only Howie Kendrick – who’s coming off a ruptured Achilles – and the light-hitting Wilmer Difo as experienced options at the keystone, the Nationals may well attempt to upgrade there before the 2019 campaign begins.

At the outset of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Dozier would head to D.C. on a one-year, $10MM accord. Had he reached free agency a year ago, though, it’s likely Dozier would have landed a much more lucrative payday. Dozier was then coming off a five-year stretch with the Twins in which he racked up 21.7 fWAR (17th among position players) and 145 home runs (13th). Along the way, he authored a pair of the most powerful years in the history of second basemen – the 2016-17 campaigns, during which he combined for 76 homers (including 42, an American League record for his position, in ’16).

Dozier’s stock was certainly high 12 months ago, but it may now be at a nadir relative to the rest of his career. As a member of the Twins and Dodgers last season, Dozier did mash another 21 HRs and steal 12 of 15 bases in 2018, giving him five consecutive campaigns with 20-plus long balls and six straight with double-digit stolen bags. However, across 632 plate appearances, the 31-year-old only managed a .215/.305/.391 line – good for a 90 wRC+, the worst full-season mark of his career – and his lowest ISO (.175) since 2014. Statcast suggests Dozier didn’t deserve better than his offensive production, as his paltry expected weighted on-base average (.288) actually fell short of his real wOBA (.304). Dozier also earned negative marks in the field, with minus-8 Defensive Runs Saved and a minus-6.4 Ultimate Zone Rating. In all, the 2018 version of Dozier was worth less than a win above replacement at FanGraphs.

While Dozier’s on the market at a less-than-ideal time, the opposite may be true of Miley. After settling for a minor league pact with the Brewers last year, the former innings eater rebuilt his stock to a degree by notching a 2.57 ERA/3.59 FIP and a 52.8 percent groundball rate over 80 2/3 frames with the World Series contenders. The 32-year-old Miley’s success came in spite of subpar strikeout and walk rates (5.58 K/9, 3.01 BB/9) and an unsustainable home run-to-fly ball percentage (5.2), which could dampen enthusiasm about his future. Nevertheless, MLBTR estimates he’ll sign for two years and $12MM – a nice guarantee considering where his stock was a year ago.

Whether Miley will get his next contract from the Nationals is questionable at best, of course. They had interest in Miley between trading Tanner Roark to Cincinnati on Dec. 13 and signing Anibal Sanchez on Dec. 20, per Dougherty. While Dougherty doesn’t rule out a Miley signing, the Nats’ rotation may be set with Sanchez slotting in behind the all-world trio of Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin and likely in front of either Joe Ross or Erick Fedde.

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