Previewing 2019-20’s Opt-Out Clause Decisions
Some few contracts include provisions giving the player control over one or more seasons by affording the chance to opt out of the remainder of the deal. Take the bird in hand or see how many you can net from the free-agent bush? Market changes have impacted the math for some players, but the open market still has riches to offer. We don’t know how things will look for any given player at season’s end, but here’s how it’s shaping up at the outset of the 2019 campaign:
Elvis Andrus, SS, Rangers: Three years, $43MM: The 2016-17 version of Andrus — and the one we saw through the season’s first two weeks in 2018 — looked every bit like a player who would exercise the first of two opt-out clauses in his contract (which came at the end of the 2018 season). From Opening Day 2016 through April 11 last year, Andrus posted a terrific .301/.352/.459 batting line with 30 homers, 78 doubles, 11 triples and 49 steals through 1318 plate appearances. Paired with his glovework at shortstop, he looked very capable of topping the remaining four years and $58MM on his contract. Unfortunately, he suffered an elbow fracture, missed two months, and returned to hit only .245/.289/.347 in his final 367 plate appearances. An offseason of rest looks to have done him some good, as he’s hitting .380/.392/.500 through 51 PAs. Unlike several players on this list, there’s an actual chance that Andrus could test the open market, though free agency hasn’t been kind to players on the wrong side of 30 in recent years.
Jake Arrieta, RHP, Phillies: One year, $20MM (unless Phillies exercise two-year, $40MM option for 2021-22): Arrieta’s first season with the Phils was solid, if unremarkable. He tallied 172 2/3 innings and gave the team a 3.96 ERA with fielding-independent metrics that didn’t stray too far from that ERA (4.26 FIP, 4.08 xFIP, 4.29 SIERA). The former Cy Young winner’s velocity is down a couple miles per hour from its peak levels, and while Arrieta showed good control and ground-ball tendencies in 2018, he no longer appears to be a strikeout pitcher. Given that he’ll pitch next season at age 34, it doesn’t seem all that likely that the Phillies will sign up to tack on another pair of $20MM seasons. With a strong 2019 effort, it’s possible that Arrieta positions himself to land a two-year deal with a larger guarantee but lower annual rate (e.g. two years, $30MM), so it’s not out of the question that he’d opt out at season’s end, even if seems unlikely at present.
Yu Darvish, RHP, Cubs: Four years, $81MM: Darvish’s first season in Chicago was an unmitigated disaster, as a series of arm injuries limited him to just 40 innings of work. His velocity isn’t where it was in previous seasons, and in this season’s small sample of three starts, he’s walked more batters than he’s punched out. It’s hard to envision any scenario in which Darvish opts out of his contract; even if he stormed back to ace status and won an NL Cy Young Award, I’m not sure he’d top $81MM as a 33-year-old free agent with a qualifying offer hanging over his head. The Cubs appear stuck with the contract and will need to simply hope for a rebound.
Jason Heyward, OF, Cubs: Four years, $86MM (assuming he makes 550 PAs): Heyward has had a scalding hot start to the season, mashing at a .351/.444/.676 pace. Through 45 plate appearances, he’s already halfway to his home run total from a 2018 season in which he came to he plate 489 times. Even if Heyward’s bat proves to be rejuvenated to its 2015 levels, however, it’s virtually unfathomable that he’d walk away from the remaining $86MM on this contract. His poor results in his first three seasons with the Cubs still loom large enough that a monster year at the dish would be met with a heavy dose of skepticism, and he’ll turn 30 in August.
Kenley Jansen, RHP, Dodgers: Two years, $38MM: After seven seasons as a near-unstoppable force in the Dodgers’ bullpen, Jansen looked mortal in 2018 when he logged a 3.01 ERA (his first time ever topping 3.00) and 10.3 K/9 (his first time south of 13.0). A strong enough rebound campaign could embolden Jansen to seek out a three-year deal at a lower annual salary than the $19MM remaining on his contract; the Rockies gave Wade Davis a total of $52MM for the same three-year age span that Jansen will be entering (32-34). He’s already rejected one qualifying offer in his career, so he wouldn’t be eligible to receive a second one (even though he landed with the same team that winter).
J.D. Martinez, DH/OF, Red Sox: Three years, $62.5MM: The general expectation in the 2017-18 offseason was that Martinez’s 2017 season (.303/.376/.690, 45 home runs) would be a peak year. Instead, he turned in an arguably even more productive 2018 season with the Red Sox, hitting a ridiculous .330/.402/.629 with 43 home runs in 649 PAs — the second-highest total of his career. Martinez is off to another strong start in 2019, and despite a frosty climate for free agents, one can only wonder if he’d be tempted to once again test free agency if he can post a third consecutive season of 40-plus homers with an OPS north of 1.000. One wrinkle to consider is that barring an unexpected midseason trade, Martinez would have a qualifying offer attached to him this time around; that wasn’t true of his last trip through free agency, as he’d been traded from Detroit to Arizona midseason.
Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Nationals: Four years, $100MM: Strasburg is still a strikeout machine who posts big totals in swinging-strike and opponents’ chase rates, but his 93.1 mph average fastball in 2019 is well south of last year’s 94.5 mph (to say nothing of his career 95.3). The former No. 1 pick was a big part of the Nats’ rotation in 2018 and should be again this year, but he was more good than great last year (130 innings, 3.74 ERA, 10.8 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 43.6 GB%). Moreover, Darvish and a much younger Patrick Corbin are the only two pitchers who have topped $100MM in guarantees over the past two offseasons. Strasburg would be hit with a qualifying offer if he opted out, and he’d be betting against recent trends as a 31-year-old pitcher looking to cash in on a nine-figure contract. He can ask Dallas Keuchel how well that strategy works.
Nationals’ Potential Deal With Bud Norris Falls Through
The Nationals’ potential agreement with free-agent righty Bud Norris has fallen through, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. The organization felt that the 34-year-old veteran was as much as a month away from MLB readiness, and the team’s preference is to find bullpen help that is more immediately available.
Norris was in camp with the Blue Jays on a minor league contract and received a $100K retention bonus to remain in the organization’s minor league ranks beyond the end of Spring Training. However, the two side agreed to a release last week due to what appears to be similar circumstances; Norris reportedly felt ready to join the Jays’ big league club sooner rather than later, but the Toronto organization wanted him to continue building arm strength in extended Spring Training.
With his hopes of signing in D.C. dashed, Norris will remain on the free-agent market as he seeks a different opportunity. With two clubs deeming him unready for near-term MLB action, it seems likely that he’ll need to build up strength somewhere before he ultimately returns to a Major League mound. Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi reported in early April that Norris, who averaged 94.6 mph on his fastball in 2018, was sitting in the 90-91 mph during workouts.
If and when Norris does work up to his previous velocity levels, he should be able to help out the majority of big league bullpens. While his career as a starter took a southward turn in 2016, he’s posted strong results over the past two seasons as a reliever. Dating back to Opening Day 2017, Norris has a 3.91 ERA with 10.6 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 1.20 HR/9 and a 44 percent ground-ball rate. He’s also posted a swinging-strike rate north of 12 percent over that two-year span — easily a career best — and last season also set a new highwater mark with a hefty 35.9 percent opponents’ chase rate on pitches outside the strike zone.
Nationals, Bud Norris Discussing Minor League Deal
TODAY: The team is evaluating the results of an MRI that Norris underwent today, Ghiroli tweets. If it comes back clean, the agreement will go into effect; otherwise, the club will potentially reconsider.
YESTERDAY, 3:52pm: Nationals GM Mike Rizzo tells reporters that there’s no agreement between the two sides, but Norris is headed to the team’s spring complex to evaluate him (Twitter link via Zuckerman). If the team deems him physically ready, a minor league agreement will be completed.
3:32pm: There’s no agreement in place between the two sides just yet, Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post tweets. There’s mutual interest between the two sides, but Dougherty notes that the Nats “need to be convinced that Norris is healthy enough to be effective.”
Norris and the Jays agreed to part ways last week due to the fact that he felt ready to pitch at the MLB level while the Toronto organization wanted him to continue building arm strength, so perhaps there’s a similar dynamic at play here.
2:23pm: The Nationals have agreed to a deal with right-hander Bud Norris, according to Britt Ghiroli of The Athletic (via Twitter). It’ll be a minors pact if completed, Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com tweets. Norris will first need to pass a physical before a deal is finalized.
Norris will not head directly onto the active roster, but may not be far from joining a team that’s badly in need of relief. The Nats bullpen has been a mess in the early going, with all but two members of the unit carrying earned run averages north of 5 per nine.
The veteran Norris could offer a key stabilizing presence. The 34-year-old has been a solid performer since moving into a full-time relief role. Over the past two seasons, he owns a 3.91 ERA with 10.6 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9 over 119 2/3 innings. Norris has compiled 47 saves in that span as well, though he won’t be expected to handle the ninth in D.C.
Norris had been expected to crack the Blue Jays pen after surprisingly settling for a minor-league deal. The Toronto org paid him a $100K retention bonus late in camp to keep him around, but ultimately released him right at the start of the season. It seems that Norris believed he was ready for the majors, while the club wanted him to keep throwing in extended camp to build his arm strength.
It’s not known how the Nats feel about the matter of Norris’s readiness. He has worked in the mid-nineties with his fastball in recent years. Like most pitchers, Norris is likelier to be successful if he has the velocity when he wants it. But the D.C. org is also in no position to turn up its nose at an experienced pitcher who isn’t quite on top of his game. Presumably, they’ll bring him onto the active roster in relatively short order so long as Norris seems mostly himself.
Injury Notes: Dahl, Turner, Cobb, Mariners
The Rockies announced Tuesday that they’ve placed outfielder David Dahl on the 10-day injured list due to a “left-side core injury.” Fellow outfielder Yonathan Daza has been recalled from Triple-A in his place. Dahl’s injury isn’t believed to be especially serious, and the hot-hitting 25-year-old in fact told MLB.com’s Thomas Harding that he hopes to return after a minimal 10-day stay on the IL (Twitter link). Dahl joins Daniel Murphy as a key middle-of-the-order presence whose absence will surely be felt by a Rockies lineup that entered play Tuesday tied for 20th in total runs scored (37th), 24th in batting average (.219), 26th in on-base percentage (.283) and 23rd in slugging percentage (.350). Dahl was off to a scintillating .343/.385/.629 start to the season through 39 plate appearances.
Some more notable injury updates from around the game…
- Brittany Ghiroli of The Athletic tweets that there’s a “tentative” timeline of four to six weeks for Nationals star Trea Turner (from the time of his injury). Turner landed on the injured list with a fractured index finger last week. Light-hitting Wilmer Difo has filled in for Turner since he exited last Tuesday’s game after injuring his right (throwing) hand on a bunt attempt in his first plate appearance.
- The Orioles announced that right-hander Alex Cobb, who had been slated to start tomorrow night’s game, has instead been placed on the 10-day injured list with a lumbar strain. The move is backdated to April 6. Cobb quickly follows righty Nate Karns (forearm strain) to the injured list, though there’s no timetable for a return on either right-hander. Baltimore has yet to announce a corresponding 25-man roster move for Cobb, who opened the season on the IL due to a groin strain. He’s thrown just 5 2/3 innings in one appearance so far this season. The early durability issues don’t help the Orioles’ already minimal chances of finding a summer trade partner willing to take on a portion of the $43MM still owed to Cobb through the 2021 campaign.
- Mariners right-hander Chasen Bradford has been placed on the 10-day injured list due to inflammation in his right shoulder, per a team announcement. The Seattle organization will turn to fellow righty Erik Swanson in his stead. There’s no immediate rotation opening for Swanson, one of the focal pieces of the trade that sent James Paxton to the Yankees, so the 25-year-old seems ticketed for the bullpen for the time being. If Swanson finds his way into a game, he’d be making his big league debut. An eighth-round pick by the Rangers in 2014, Swanson went from Texas to New York in the 2016 Carlos Beltran trade before being sent to the Mariners in the aforementioned Paxton swap. He pitched at three levels in the Yankees’ system last year, working to a combined 2.66 ERA with 10.3 K/9 against 2.1 BB/9 in 121 2/3 innings.
Nationals Interested In Bud Norris
The Nationals are showing interest in free agent reliever Bud Norris, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). Per the report, the club would still like to stay beneath the luxury tax line with any new additions.
With bullpen issues jumping up right out of the gate this year, the Nationals are understandably looking to find reinforcements. While superstar closer Craig Kimbrel remains available, he’ll still cost quite a bit. Otherwise, the market is largely devoid of appealing options outside of old friend Ryan Madson, who never seemed to be pursuing a contract in earnest.
Norris dealt with some forearm fatigue this spring after signing late. He was cut loose recently by the Blue Jays when he and the team did not see eye to eye on his readiness for MLB action. He had signed a minor-league deal with the Toronto organization — quite a surprising result after he turned in a solid 2018 season.
Working as the Cardinals closer for much of the ’18 campaign, Norris pitched to a 3.59 ERA with 10.5 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 over 57 2/3 innings. He sat at 95 with his four-seam fastball and carried a 12%+ swinging-strike rate for the second consecutive season.
NL Notes: Nats, Rosenthal, Rox, Freeland, Brewers, Cards, Reyes
Nationals reliever Trevor Rosenthal‘s hellish early season start continued Sunday when he failed to retire either Met he faced, walking one and hitting another. Rosenthal also threw a pair of wild pitches and totaled just one strike during his seven-pitch outing. Worse, the 28-year-old hasn’t recorded an out against any of the nine batters he has gone against this season, making him the first pitcher since 1995 to achieve that ignominious feat, Jon Heyman of MLB Network notes. Rosenthal, who missed all of 2018 after undergoing Tommy John surgery, expressed confidence in his health Sunday and his chances of eventually escaping this slump, per Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com. Meanwhile, asked if the Nationals can continue to put Rosenthal on the mound, manager Dave Martinez said: “We have to come up with something. We have to figure something out for him. We tried to tweak something with his mechanics, but we’ve got to keep working on it.”
Martinez added the Nationals are “going to need Rosey,” who was their most noteworthy bullpen addition of the offseason. Thanks to a successful run with the Cardinals from 2012-17, Rosenthal’s earning a guaranteed $7MM this season with Washington, which took a chance on him in the wake of his injury. His return has gone about as poorly as possible thus far, of course, though Rosenthal’s hardly the lone problem in the Nationals’ bullpen. The unit entered Sunday with a league-worst 10.02 ERA and nearly blew a 12-1 lead before hanging on for a 12-9 win.
More from the NL…
- Although Rockies owner Dick Monfort seems interested in extending left-hander Kyle Freeland, the two sides haven’t engaged in talks yet, Heyman reports. Colorado just extended righty German Marquez for a guaranteed $43MM – a number Heyman regards as “an obvious floor” for Freeland, who’s in his final pre-arbitration season and has three years of control left thereafter. Freeland, 26 next month, made a major case for long-term security in 2018, in which he amassed 202 1/3 innings of 2.85 ERA pitching and finished fourth in the NL Cy Young race.
- While the Brewers are reportedly keeping an eye on the majors’ two best free agents, closer Craig Kimbrel and starter Dallas Keuchel, it doesn’t sound as if they’re expecting to sign either hurler. Assistant general manager Matt Arnold told Jim Duquette of SiriusXM on Sunday that the Brewers “do not foresee any additions at this point” from the outside. That may have something to do with the possibility that the Brewers, who are already running a franchise-record season-opening payroll of $122MM-plus, don’t have the spending room left to sign either player for anything close to what they’re seeking. Kimbrel’s current asking price is unclear, but there’s no doubt it’s lofty, while Ken Rosenthal reported Saturday that Keuchel may be looking for a deal in the $18MM-per-year range.
- The Cardinals demoted highly touted righty Alex Reyes to the minors Saturday, but they don’t plan on having the 24-year-old come back as a starter this season. Building up Reyes’ workload is “not even close to on our radar,” manager Mike Shildt told Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch on Sunday. Rather, Reyes will typically total two innings and 30 to 40 pitches per Triple-A appearance, Goold explains. The goal is for Reyes to function as a late-game, multi-inning reliever when he heads back to St. Louis, though there’s no timetable for his return to the majors, Goold reports.
Rehab Notes: Polanco, Kershaw, Taylor
A grueling seven-month rehab process is finally nearing its end for Gregory Polanco, reports MLB.com’s Adam Berry, as the Pirates outfielder is set to begin a rehab assignment tomorrow for High-A Bradenton. The initial rehab outlook for the torn labrum on Polanco’s left shoulder was seven to nine months, so even a full 20-day rehab stay will have him set to return on the short end of the timeframe. The 27-year-old’s imminent return will be manna from the proverbial heaven for the run-starved Pirates, who’ve already lost outfielders Corey Dickerson and Lonnie Chisenhall to injuries at the season’s outset. Polanco’s status as a perennial breakout candidate finally came to fruition last year, as the big lefty slashed a career-best .254/.340/.499 (123 wRC+) in 130 games before suffering the injury in early September. His hard-hit rate, which had dipped to a shockingly pedestrian 25.9% in 2017, jumped nearly nine percentage points, and the newfound plate discipline he exhibited reaped huge benefits.
In further rehab news from around the game…
- Clayton Kershaw‘s dominant rehab performance on minor-league Opening Night doesn’t mean he’s ready for the show, writes Bill Plunkett of the OC Register. The three-time Cy Young award winner will need at least another rehab outing – this one in the 75-80 pitch range – before rejoining the big club in the coming weeks. Dampening the much-needed flames throughout the outing were the stadium’s radar gun readouts, which reportedly had the seven-time all-star sitting at a frightening 88-91 MPH with the fastball. A career-low 90.9 MPH average fastball velocity in ’18 led to the lefty’s lowest strikeout rate since his rookie season of 2008, and the once-untouchable ace was again vulnerable to the longball. The club may not need a halcyon Kershaw to contend for the pennant, and may not need him at all to run through a sloppy NL West. Still, even a compromised version of the lefty should be quite effective, and the Dodgers, who doubled down on their substantial investment this offseason, will continue to hold out out hope for the ace of seasons past.
- Per Brittany Ghiroli of The Athletic, Nationals outfielder Michael A. Taylor will play seven innings in a rehab game today. It’s good news for the Nationals, who expected the extra OF to miss “significant time” after he sprained his knee and hip mid-March. There seems to be precious little playing time in the Nats outfield for Taylor, who followed up a solid 2017 season with a .227/.287/.357 stinker last year. Strikeouts have long been an issue for the speedy centerfielder, who’s posted a K rate of 30% or higher in each of his four major-league seasons.
Trea Turner Diagnosed With Fractured Index Finger
TODAY: Turner is officially going on the 10-day injured list. Infielder Adrian Sanchez will take his spot on the active roster for the time being. Since Sanchez already has a 40-man spot, no further moves will be necessary.
YESTERDAY: The Nationals received bad news on shortstop Trea Turner tonight, as X-rays revealed that he sustained a fractured right index finger on a bunt attempt, manager Dave Martinez revealed following tonight’s loss (Twitter link via ESPN’s Buster Olney). He’ll be out for a yet-to-be-determined period of time.
Turner, looking to bunt his way aboard in the first inning of tonight’s game, left too much of his hand exposed and caught the brunt of a 92 mph Zach Eflin fastball on his right index finger. He was replaced by Wilmer Difo without finishing the at-bat and could very well be replaced by Difo for the foreseeable future with a trip to the injured list surely around the corner. Alternatively, the Nats have one of the game’s best infield prospects in Carter Kieboom, though the 21-year-old is not yet on the 40-man roster and has only played in 62 games above A-ball.
The loss of Turner comes at time when the Nats have opened the season 1-3 and been outscored by opponents at a 26-16 clip. Swapping out Turner, one of the team’s best offensive players, for the light-hitting Difo won’t do the lineup any favors. There’s little available on the open market at present, though the A’s did just cut veteran middle infielder Cliff Pennington loose if Washington is eyeing some veteran minor league depth from outside the organization.
East Notes: Hot Seat Managers, Orioles, Bundy, Pedroia
Following an offseason that featured an arms race between several of the NL East’s contenders, expectations are higher than ever for the Braves, Mets, Nationals, and Phillies. For that reason, writes Joel Sherman of the New York Post, there will be no excuses for managers Gabe Kapler, Dave Martinez, and Mickey Callaway this time around. The trio of rookie managers all endured disappointing 2018 seasons, but with their ballclubs making significant additions in the winter, the new year comes with heightened pressure to deliver and win now. It bears mentioning that first-year Mets general manager Brodie Van Wagenen was not part of the front office that hired Callaway prior to last season. Though it’s still early to speculate about managerial turnover, the developing bloodbath in the NL East will be a story to watch throughout the season and into the winter.
Here are some other notes from the East…
- Orioles right-hander Dylan Bundy, once an uber-prospect with tantalizing potential, has undergone well-documented struggles in recent years, culminating in his surrendering 41 home runs last season. Jon Meoli of The Baltimore Sun details new pitching coach Doug Brocail’s plan to implement changes that will help Bundy return to the form that brought him success earlier in his career, including his career-best 2016 season.
- Also in Baltimore, new skipper Brandon Hyde has thus far refrained from anointing a closer and does not intend to do so anytime soon, writes Meoli. Though Mychal Givens, who finished the 2018 season in the closer role after the midseason trades of Zack Britton and Brad Brach, appeared the best candidate to close, Hyde’s Orioles are comfortable sticking to a committee approach for the foreseeable future.
- Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia, who has been dealing with left knee inflammation and began the season on the IL, will begin a rehab assignment on Thursday with the Class-A Greenville Drive, per Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe. Pedroia has been receiving at-bats in extended spring training; the timetable for his return to MLB action is yet unknown.
Quick Hits: Brewers, Kimbrel, Keuchel, Astros, Correa, A’s, Nats
The Brewers have reportedly engaged in “pretty serious” negotiations of late with closer Craig Kimbrel, who remains available even after the start of the season. Now, having lost closer Corey Knebel to season-ending Tommy John surgery, a union between the Brewers and Kimbrel looks even more plausible on paper. However, barring a massive drop in asking price, the Brewers aren’t in position to sign Kimbrel or the majors’ other big-ticket free agent, starter Dallas Keuchel, according to Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Both Kimbrel and Keuchel rejected a $17.9MM qualifying offer from their previous team at the outset of the offseason. But even if they wind up settling for one-year contracts, odds are those deals will approach or exceed the worth of the qualifying offer. The Brewers, for their part, probably don’t even have half the value of the QO left in their budget, Haudricourt relays, as they’re already sporting a franchise-record Opening Day payroll. As a result, Haudricourt posits they’re more likely to rely on in-house reinforcements such as injured reliever Jeremy Jeffress and on-the-mend starter Jimmy Nelson than splurge on one of the two star free agents sitting on the open market.
More from around the game…
- Astros shortstop Carlos Correa is likely to make his season debut Sunday, Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle suggests. Correa suffered a neck strain a week ago, which has left short to the error-prone Aledmys Diaz and elite third baseman Alex Bregman so far this season. Upon his return, the 24-year-old Correa will aim to rebound from a surprisingly pedestrian 2018 campaign, his second straight injury-limited season.
- Athletics catcher Chris Herrmann, who underwent arthroscopic surgery on his right knee toward the beginning of March, expects to miss eight to 10 weeks, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports. The recipient of a $1MM guarantee over the winter, Herrmann had the inside track on a season-opening roster spot before going under the knife. His injury opened the door for minor league signing Nick Hundley to join holdover Josh Phegley as the Athletics’ top two catchers. Hundley and Phegley have gotten off to slow starts in the early going.
- Nationals left-hander Vidal Nuno III decided not to exercise his March 27 opt-out clause, Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post tweets. Nuno, who did not make the Nats’ season-opening roster, will have another chance to exit his minor league deal June 15 if he’s still with the organization. In the meantime, the 31-year-old is set to begin the season at the Triple-A level, per Dougherty. Nuno spent most of 2018 in Triple-A with the Rays, but he did amass 33 innings in the majors and pitch to a stingy 1.64 ERA (alongside an unspectacular 4.46 FIP and a paltry 28.6 percent groundball rate) with 7.91 K/9 and 2.73 BB/9.