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Nationals Sign Shinnosuke Ogasawara

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The Nationals announced the signing of left-hander Shinnosuke Ogasawara to a two-year deal on Friday. The WME Baseball client is reportedly guaranteed $3.5MM. He’ll make $1.5MM this year and $2MM in 2026. The Nationals will pay a $700K posting fee to his former team, the Chunichi Dragons of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. It’s a $4.2MM investment altogether. Fellow lefty Joe La Sorsa was designated for assignment in a corresponding move.

Ogasawara, 27, pitched in part of nine seasons for Dragons. He threw 951 1/3 innings, allowing 3.62 earned runs per nine. He struck out 18.9% of batters faced while giving out walks at a 7.7% clip.

Despite fairly decent run prevention, there are also some concerning elements in Ogasawara’s profile. His strikeout rate in Japan is a bit below what is expected of hurlers in North America these days, as the league average has been in the 22-23% range in recent seasons. He’s also a bit undersized, listed at 5’11” and 183 pounds. That size isn’t necessarily a disqualification, as it actually makes him larger than Shota Imanaga, who is 5’10” and 175. Imanaga proved himself capable of handling MLB hitters in 2024 but he also had a 25% strikeout rate in his NPB career before crossing, notably higher than Ogasawara.

It’s also a metric that has wavered for Ogasawara. He got his rate of punchouts as high as 24% in 2022, but then it dropped to 20.1% the year after and then fell way down to 13.6% in the most recent season. That big drop in strikeouts did coincide with a tiny walk rate of 3.7% and he still managed to post a 3.12 ERA, but it does lead to questions as to how his stuff will play in his new environment. He throws a fastball in the 91-93 mile-per-hour range, as well as featuring a curveball and a changeup.

Despite the question marks, it’s a sensible gamble for the Nats to take. The club has been rebuilding for a while, having recently wrapped up their fifth straight losing season. There was some speculation that they might come into this offseason looking to take a step forward, perhaps making a bold strike or two, but that hasn’t really come to pass.

They did make some moves, but mostly avoided committing themselves to anything beyond 2026. They signed Josh Bell, Michael Soroka, Amed Rosario and Jorge López to one-year deals. They brought back Trevor Williams on a two-year pact. Nathaniel Lowe, who has two seasons of club control remaining, was acquired from the Rangers.

Bringing in Ogasawara on a two-year pact aligns with those other moves. The club has seemingly taken the path of making some decent additions while also waiting to see how young players like Dylan Crews, James Wood and Brady House develop. Once they get more clarity on those players and others, they can decide about more assertive moves in the future.

The same is largely true of their rotation. Young and controllable pitchers like MacKenzie Gore, Jake Irvin, Mitchell Parker, DJ Herz and Cade Cavalli have shown some progress to varying degrees but there are still some question marks there. Irvin and Parker have posted decent run prevention numbers but with subpar strikeout rates. Herz had a nice MLB debut in 2024 but had massive walk problems in the minors. Cavalli missed the past two seasons due to Tommy John surgery.

The Nats would probably like a bit more time to continue evaluating those guys to see who among them can emerge as real rotation building blocks. They could have rolled into the season with a rotation of Gore, Irvin, Parker, Herz and Cavalli but clearly wanted to add some more options and improve the overall depth. As mentioned, they signed Soroka and Williams, with Ogasawara now added into the mix as well.

Those three and Gore should have four rotation spots accounted for, at least to start the season. Both Soroka and Williams have some relief experience and could get pushed to the bullpen if they struggle or one of the younger guys pushes them out. Each of Irvin, Parker, Herz and Cavalli have options and could get pushed to Triple-A. The Nats could perhaps consider a six-man rotation, though doing so would limit them to a seven-man bullpen. Josiah Gray could get back in the mix late in 2025 but is currently rehabbing from a Tommy John and internal brace surgery which was performed in July.

Perhaps the bolstered roster will push the Nats into a greater chance of contention, but they are also looking up at three really strong teams in the division. Atlanta and Philadelphia have been powerhouses for years while the Mets just made the playoffs and have been very aggressive, including adding Juan Soto. If the Nats find themselves outside the playoff mix come July, any of the players they’ve added could become trade candidates, on account of their short windows of club control.

The Dragons posted Ogasawara on December 10, which led to a 45-day posting window that ended today. If he had not signed, he would have returned to the Dragons but he’ll be coming to Washington instead. Unlike Roki Sasaki, Ogasawara is not subject to the international bonus pool system. That’s because he is over 25 years old and has at least six professional seasons on his track record. MLBTR predicted him for a two-year, $12MM deal at the start of the offseason.

The Nats owe the Dragons a posting fee, with the size of that fee dependent on the size of the contract. That fee will be equal to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars thereafter. Since Ogasawara signed for less than $25MM, it’s simply 20% of the guarantee.

La Sorsa, 27 in April, has been a fringe member of the Washington roster for a while. He was claimed off waivers from the Rays in June of 2023 but was outrighted off the roster in December of that year. He got his roster spot back in August of 2024 but has now been bumped off again.

Between the Rays and the Nats, he has 50 1/3 innings in the big leagues with a 4.47 ERA, 19.2% strikeout rate and 6.4% walk rate. He had a strong showing in the minors in 2022, throwing 73 1/3 innings with a 2.33 ERA, 31.4% strikeout rate and 3.6% walk rate. However, he’s been a bit less impressive over the past two seasons, having thrown 92 2/3 innings with a 2.82 ERA, 18% strikeout rate and 6.2% walk rate. A .268 batting average on balls in play and 82.3% strand rate helped him out in that time, which is why his 4.62 FIP was almost two runs higher than his ERA.

He’ll now head to DFA limbo for a week at most. The Nats could explore trades for the next five days but would have to put him on waivers after that, since the waiver process takes 48 hours. If he were to pass through unclaimed, he would have the right to elect free agency on account of his previous outright.

The Associated Press reported the terms of Ogasawara’s deal.

Interest In Kyle Finnegan Picking Up

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As late-inning relievers finally begin to come off the board, interest in former Nationals closer Kyle Finnegan has picked up “significantly,” Robert Murray of FanSided reports. The market for relievers in general has accelerated in recent days. Tanner Scott, Paul Sewald, A.J. Minter and Jose Leclerc have all hammered out agreements in the past week. Kirby Yates has reportedly reached a “tentative” agreement with the Dodgers, too.

Finnegan, 33, was non-tendered by the Nationals back in November. While his end-of-year numbers look sharp — 38 saves, 3.68 ERA — Finnegan had a brutal finish to the year and was projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for an $8.6MM salary in what would’ve been his final year of club control before free agency. That was more than the Nationals were willing to pay at the time. Presumably, other clubs also balked at the price. Teams generally shop players around the trade market before cutting them loose via non-tender, and the Nats surely did that due diligence with a player as prominent as Finnegan has been for them.

As deep into the season as July 21, Finnegan boasted a 2.32 earned run average with a 26% strikeout rate and 8.3% walk rate. He was thriving in high-leverage spots, missing bats and limiting walks while piling up saves in Davey Martinez’s bullpen. It was a strong enough showing for Finnegan to deservingly make the first All-Star team of his career.

The subsequent 21 appearances, however, were a disaster. Finnegan surrendered runs in nine of those outings, yielding an ugly 6.43 ERA along the way. He was hampered by a .411 average on balls in play, but his struggles were attributable to far more than just a simple downturn in batted-ball luck; Finnegan’s strikeout rate plummeted to 15.7% over that stretch, while his walk rate inflated to 9.8%. He logged an 11.8% swinging-strike rate through July 21 but only a 9.1% clip from that point forth. His opponents’ contact rate jumped from 77.6% to 81.9%. In particular, their rate of contact on pitches off the plate soared. Finnegan’s velocity held strong, averaging 97.2 mph in both samples, but his command was clearly not as sharp in the season’s final two-plus months.

Finnegan was connected to the Cubs back in December. Chicago just finished runner-up to the Dodgers in bidding for the previously mentioned Scott and is still seeking bullpen upgrades. Others known to be poking around the relief market at the moment (but not necessarily targeting Finnegan, specifically) include the Reds, Yankees, D-backs, Mets and Braves — to name just a few. Most clubs this time of year feel there’s still room to add to their bullpen, though not every team has the remaining financial flexibility to do so on a reliever of some note, like Finnegan.

A one-year deal a bit shy of Finnegan’s projected arb salary feels feasible. It’s also at least plausible that he could ink a two-year pact at a lesser annual value, allowing him to surpass the total of his projected arbitration salary. Non-tendered players rarely strike multi-year deals, but it’s happened before, and Finnegan was a higher-profile cut than most.

Alex Bregman, Tigers Reportedly At “Standstill”

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Spring training is now just a few weeks away but many free agents are still unsigned, with Alex Bregman arguably being the most notable. The Tigers are one club that have been connected to him but Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports that talks are “at a standstill.”

At the start of the offseason, MLBTR ranked Bregman the #3 free agent of the winter, behind Juan Soto and Corbin Burnes. Soto and Burnes are both now signed, leaving Bregman as the top guy still out there. We predicted a seven-year, $182MM deal that ended up being sort of a midpoint for Bregman’s negotiations earlier in the offseason. The Astros reportedly offered Bregman $156MM over six years, though the third baseman was trying to get to $200MM.

Rather than meet in the middle, Houston walked away. They lined up a deal with the Cardinals for Nolan Arenado, though Arenado used his no-trade clause to quash that. Instead, they acquired Isaac Paredes from the Cubs and signed Christian Walker to take over at first base. Since then, Bregman has been connected to clubs like the Tigers, Blue Jays, Red Sox and others, but without much apparent momentum.

The Cubs reportedly sniffed around the possibility of a short-term deal for Bregman but agent Scott Boras said last week that Bregman wasn’t considering that path. Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer also recently downplayed the possibility of the Cubs getting involved. “I think likely,” Hoyer said at Cubs Convention a few days ago, when asked if the Cubs’ third baseman is already in the organization. “Certainly, we’ll look to supplement. Infield is an area we’re focused on (for the bench), but I think the likelihood is yes.”

Matt Shaw is perhaps the best solution there but he has not yet made his major league debut. There’s no guarantee he will hit the ground running in 2025, so there’s an argument for adding someone established, but it seems the Cubs are trying to be more opportunistic than aggressive in Bregman’s market.

It makes for something of a staring contest with the 2025 season approaching. It was around this time last year that Boras started pivoting to short-term deals for Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery. Boras has apparently made that turn with client Pete Alonso, as Alonso’s camp reportedly pitched a three-year deal to the Mets recently.

But with Bregman still holding out hope for a longer deal, it seems to be leading to the general sluggishness of the third base market. The Tigers have had a fairly quiet offseason, with one-year deals for Alex Cobb and Gleyber Torres being their primary moves so far. They have Jace Jung and Matt Vierling as potential in-house options at the hot corner, so they have a bit of leverage to wait out Bregman.

With Vierling also capable of playing the outfield, Jung seems like the logical choice for third base right now. He struck out in 30.9% of his plate appearances last year but that was a small-sample debut of 94 plate appearances. He didn’t have those kind of strikeout rates in the minors and still managed to draw a lot of walks while making his major league debut. Like with Shaw, there’s no guarantee that he can take the job and run with it but the Tigers might feel they have enough cover to not go crazy on a Bregman deal.

As long as Bregman stays out there, it seems to be preventing other dominoes from falling. The Cardinals came into the winter looking to do something of a reset but they haven’t been able to execute it yet, which seems to be at least partially because Arenado wanted clarity on Bregman’s situation before he’d commit to being traded. That has left St. Louis in a sort of holding pattern where they might just keep Arenado and other veterans into the start of the 2025 season.

Daniel Kramer of MLB.com also reports that the Bregman situation is leaving the Mariners playing a waiting game. While the M’s are not in on Bregman, they are impacted by the situation nonetheless. Kramer writes that the M’s “believe they’re positioned to make a notable move before Spring Training” but are holding on to see if a Bregman deal sparks movement elsewhere, since upgrading at third is on their to-do list.

Seattle has been fairly quiet this winter, with their signing of infielder Donovan Solano to a one-year, $3.5MM deal being their most notable move. Kramer reports that the M’s don’t plan to deploy him at second and he will be in the mix for playing time at first base more than anywhere else. That perhaps suggests Solano will be platooning with Luke Raley, since Solano is better against lefties and Raley the opposite.

For third base, Kramer floats various possible scenarios that could come to pass as the offseason progresses. He mentions that the Red Sox could land Bregman, which could perhaps make someone like Triston Casas more available. Casas doesn’t play third but it could perhaps lead to Solano moving across the diamond for more time over there. Kramer also floats the possibility of the Tigers signing Bregman and making Jung available, or a similar situation with someone on the Blue Jays like Orelvis Martínez or Addison Barger. It’s also possible that infielders like Luis Arráez of the Padres or Willi Castro of the Twins become more available once Bregman is off the board.

Until then, the Mariners are left laying in the cut, though they have explored other options. They had talks with the Cubs about Nico Hoerner and Bellinger, though the Hoerner deal seemed to become less likely when Paredes was sent to Houston in the Kyle Tucker deal. Perhaps the Hoerner trade talks could be revisited if Bregman ends up a Cub, which is perhaps another reason for the M’s to wait. The Bellinger connection was reported earlier in the offseason.

Another path the M’s considered, according to Kramer, was getting Nathaniel Lowe from the Rangers. However, it seems Texas didn’t feel great about dealing Lowe within their division, which led to him being dealt to the Nationals instead.

For now, it all feels like the part of the standoff where everyone has their hand by their holster, waiting for movement. It’s possible that bodies start dropping once someone flinches, but it’s a staredown for the time being.

Nationals, Andrew Knizner Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Nationals are in agreement with catcher Andrew Knizner on a minor league contract, reports Andrew Golden of The Washington Post. The CAA client will get a non-roster invitation to MLB Spring Training.

Knizner, 30 next month, was drafted by the Cardinals in 2016. He’d converted to catching during his college days at North Carolina State. The right-handed hitter has produced offensively in the minors but hasn’t made much of an impact over parts of six big league campaigns. Knizner hit just .216/.290/.331 in nearly 800 trips to the plate with the Cardinals. St. Louis cut him loose last offseason.

The Rangers inked Knizner to a $1.825MM free agent deal last winter. He spent most of the year as Jonah Heim’s backup, but he didn’t perform especially well. Knizner hit .167/.183/.211 over 35 games. Texas acquired Carson Kelly at the deadline and designated Knizner for assignment not long after. He landed with the Diamondbacks via waiver claim. His time in Arizona consisted of 22 Triple-A games. The Snakes outrighted him off their 40-man roster without getting him into a big league contest. Knizner qualified for minor league free agency at the end of the season.

While Knizner hasn’t hit much at the MLB level, he owns a solid .271/.351/.424 slash over 454 career Triple-A plate appearances. There isn’t a huge bar to clear offensively for a backup catcher. Most backup catchers are well-regarded defensively. Knizner has struggled behind the plate, at least in the view of public metrics. Statcast has graded him as a below-average pitch framer. He also ranked in the bottom 10 among qualified catchers in average pop time (time to throw to second on a stolen base attempt).

There’s no risk for the Nationals in giving Knizner a non-roster look in camp. Keibert Ruiz has the starting job secure despite a difficult 2024 season. Riley Adams is the favorite for the backup job, a role he has held for the past three seasons. He is out of options and can’t be sent to the minors without going on waivers. Drew Millas is the only other catcher on the 40-man roster. Knizner is out of options himself, so if the Nats call him up at any point, they’d need to keep him in the big leagues or risk losing him to another team.

Braves Claim Amos Willingham, Designate Allan Winans

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The Braves have claimed right-hander Amos Willingham off waivers from the Nationals, per a team announcement. Righty Allan Winans was designated for assignment in a corresponding move. Washington had designated Willingham for assignment last week.

Willingham, 26, is a Georgia native and Georgia Tech product who’s pitched in the majors in each of the past two seasons with the Nats. He’s totaled only 25 1/3 innings and been torched for a 7.11 ERA in that tiny sample, but the 6’4″, 223-pound righty has enjoyed plenty of success in the upper minors. Willingham was unscored upon in the brief 10 2/3 innings he spent at the Double-A level and carries a combined 3.47 ERA in parts of two Triple-A seasons (93 1/3 innings). He’s punched out a solid 23.3% of his Triple-A opponents — albeit against a more problematic 10.8% walk rate.

The claim of Willingham adds a power arm to the Braves’ depth chart — one who still has a minor league option year remaining. Willingham has averaged 95.9 mph on his heater in the majors and ran it up to 98 mph in his lone big league outing this past season. Though his strikeout rate in Triple-A was roughly in line with the major league average, his 13.1% swinging-strike rate against minor league opponents was well north of MLB’s 11.1% average. He pairs that heater with a 90 mph cutter and 85 mph slider.

Winans, 29, has pitched in the majors in each of the past two seasons as well. He’s similar to Willingham — beyond their identical ALW initials — in that both have struggled in the big leagues but pitched well in Triple-A. Winans has an ugly 7.20 earned run average with a 20.9% strikeout rate and 6.6% walk rate in the majors. In parts of three Triple-A campaigns, however, he touts a 3.26 ERA, 21.8% strikeout rate and 6.9% walk rate. That’s come in a sample of 256 innings, as Winans has operated primarily as a starting pitcher. Both pitchers also have one minor league option remaining.

The similarities broadly stop there. Winans sits just 90-91 with his four-seamer and 89-90 with his sinker. He pairs those modest fastballs with an upper-70s slider and a changeup that sits 82-83 mph. He’s generally gotten by in the minors with sub-par velocity thanks to strong command and a knack for inducing weak contact. Big league hitters haven’t made a lot of hard contact on average, but when they do square Winans up, the results haven’t been pretty. He’s yielded a 10% barrel rate and been tagged for an average of 1.80 home runs per nine innings pitched.

The Braves will have five days to look for a potential trade partner for Winans. At that point, they’d have to place him on outright waivers, which take an additional 48 hours to process.

Nationals Sign Franchy Cordero To Minor League Contract

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The Nationals signed outfielder/first baseman Franchy Cordero to a minor league contract, according to Aram Leighton of Just Baseball Media.  There are conflicting reports over whether or not the deal includes an invitation to the Nats’ big league spring camp, as Leighton writes that Cordero got an invite while the Washington Post’s Andrew Golden writes otherwise.

Cordero returns to North American baseball after a year spent with the Seibu Lions of Nippon Professional Baseball.  More specifically, most of Cordero’s time was spent with the Lions’ top minor league affiliate, as he played only 23 games with the Lions and struggled to a .129/.151/.200 over 73 NPB plate appearances.

It was hardly the performance Cordero was hoping for in his trip to Japan, which could be why (as per Golden’s report) Washington only issued him an invite to its minor league Spring Training site.  Regardless of the exact nature of Cordero’s contract, the minor league deal is a no-risk move for the Nationals to look at Cordero first-hand and see what he can still bring to the table as he enters his age-30 season.

Cordero hit .217/.283/.395 with 27 home runs over 797 PA and 251 games with the Padres, Royals, Red Sox, and Yankees from 2017-23.  Despite the lack of production, it was easy to see why so multiple teams kept taking chances on Cordero, as his power potential, exit velocity numbers, and plus speed gave the impression that a breakout was just around the corner. However, Cordero’s 34.9% career strikeout rate minimized his impact, as pitchers were often able to turn Cordero’s aggressive approach at the plate into a minus rather than a plus.

Defensively, Cordero has experience at first base and at all three outfield positions, though he isn’t considered to be much of a fielder.  Washington’s minor league depth chart doesn’t have many players with MLB experience at first base or in the outfield, so the Nationals could be viewing Cordero solely as a Triple-A backup plan.

Nationals Outright Joan Adon

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The Nationals announced Wednesday that right-hander Joan Adon passed through waivers unclaimed after he was designated for assignment last week. He’ll remain with the organization and has been assigned outright to Triple-A Rochester. Washington designated Adon to clear roster space for free agent signee Amed Rosario.

The 26-year-old Adon has logged big league time with the Nats in each of the past four seasons. He’s totaled 132 1/3 innings but sports a 6.66 earned run average in that time. He’s fanned 19% of his opponents, issued walks at an 11.3% clip and kept the ball on the ground at a 45.3% rate. Both those strikeout and walk rates are worse than league-average, but Adon’s grounder rate is a few percentage points above par and he averages about 95 mph on his heater.

Adon has been durable in the upper minors, typically working as a starter, but he’s also gotten some bullpen work in recent seasons as his big league results have been lackluster. Given that he sits nearly 95 mph as a starter when he’s facing lineups multiple times, it’s fair to wonder how high that velocity might trend upward if he were to move to short relief stints.

Adon was out of minor league options, so the Nationals would’ve had to either break camp with him on the Opening Day roster or jettison him from the 40-man by way of trade or DFA at some point during spring training. Now that he’s cleared waivers, he’ll head to big league camp this spring as a non-roster invitee. If he doesn’t pitch his way back into the big league plans, he’ll start the year in Rochester and bide his time while waiting for another opportunity.

Washington’s rotation mix is deeper after signing Michael Soroka and re-signing Trevor Williams. That pair will join MacKenzie Gore, Mitchell Parker, Jake Irvin and DJ Herz — all four of whom delivered some encouraging performances in 2024 (albeit with some late fades as that group surpassed previous career-high workloads). With that group of six starters in the fold and top prospect Cade Cavalli hoping for a healthy 2025 campaign, Adon has been pushed a ways down the depth chart. A full-time look in the ’pen could be interesting, but it’s not yet clear how the Nats will utilize him moving forward.

MLBTR Podcast: The Jeff Hoffman Situation, Justin Verlander, And The Marlins’ Rotation

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Nationals Sign Jorge Lopez

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The Nationals have signed right-hander Jorge Lopez, according to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. Lopez will receive $3MM in guaranteed money in the one-year contract, the New York Post’s Jon Heyman reports, plus some more money is available in incentives. The Nats have officially announced the signing, and also announced that right-hander Amos Willingham was designated for assignment to create roster space for Lopez.

Lopez, 32 next month, spent the first several years of his big league career as a below-average swingman. He made his big league debut with the Brewers back in 2015, and in parts of six seasons with Milwaukee, Kansas City, and Baltimore he posted a 6.04 ERA (76 ERA+) with a 5.15 FIP in 102 appearances, 58 of which were starts. After posting ERAs north of six in three consecutive seasons as a swingman from 2019 to 2021, the Orioles converted Lopez to short relief full-time ahead of the 2022 season.

From there, his career has taken a major step forward. His breakout began with a sterling 1.68 ERA in the first half while collecting 19 saves as their closer. He was traded to the Twins ahead of that summer’s trade deadline and faded somewhat down the stretch, but still finished the season with an excellent 2.54 ERA (155 ERA+) and 3.42 FIP in 71 innings of work. While his 10.4% walk rate left something to be desired, he combined it with a solid 24.2% strikeout rate and a fantastic 57.8% groundball rate, giving him strong peripherals that suggested he could have a future in the late innings.

Unfortunately, Lopez was unable to recreate that excellent 2022 season the following year. He took a massive step back in 2023 while spending time on the injured list for mental health reasons, and when he was on the mound he pitched to a 5.95 ERA in 59 innings of work. Nonetheless, Lopez managed to latch on with the Mets last year on a big league deal. His tenure in Queens was brief, as while he posted decent middle relief numbers (including a 3.76 ERA in 26 1/3 innings of work) he was designated for assignment in late May following a controversy regarding a post-game interview where he seemingly referred to the Mets as the “worst team” in the league, though in the aftermath of the incident it appeared that Lopez had actually referred to himself as the “worst teammate” in the league.

That rocky exit from the Mets, in conjunction with his difficult 2023 season, left Lopez to catch on with the Cubs on a minor league deal. He made the most of the opportunity, however, and looked every bit like the dominant late-inning arm he had been for the Orioles in 2022. In 26 2/3 innings of work for Chicago last year, Lopez posted an excellent 2.03 ERA. He struck out 29.2% of his opponents during that stretch with a walk rate of just 7.5%, and his 59.1% groundball rate was nothing short of elite. Taking that fantastic work on the north side together with his time in Queens paints a picture of Lopez as an intriguing, if somewhat risky, late-inning option as he posted a 2.89 ERA and 3.94 FIP in 53 innings of work with a 23% strikeout rate and 51% groundball rate.

Lopez is now headed to the Nationals, where he appears likely to be tasked with the closer role barring another external addition. That role had belonged to Kyle Finnegan in recent years, but the club non-tendered him back in November due to his rapidly escalating price in arbitration. Finnegan was projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for an $8.6MM salary in 2025, and Lopez is signing in D.C. for just over a third of that amount after posting better rate numbers than Finnegan did in 2024.

The addition of Lopez brings the Nationals’ payroll up to a projected $110MM for 2025 according to RosterResource. That’s $20MM below the club’s 2024 payroll, meaning they should have room for further upgrades to the roster should opportunities arise in trade or on the free agent market. That said, it’s already been a fairly busy winter for the Nationals. Lopez joins rotation additions Trevor Williams and Michael Soroka on the pitching staff, while Josh Bell and Nathaniel Lowe were brought in to bolster the club’s lineup. There’s still room for improvement, however, particularly in the bullpen and at third base.

As for Willingham, the right-hander has been and up-and-down reliever for the Nationals over the past two seasons. To this point in his career, he’s posted a 7.11 ERA in 25 1/3 innings of work at the major league level with just one appearance for Washington in 2024. He posted a decent 3.69 ERA for Triple-A Rochester last year, however, and it’s not impossible to imagine a rival club having some interest in Willingham as optionable relief depth. Going forward, the Nationals will have one week to either work out a trade involving the right-hander or try to put him through waivers. If he clears waivers unclaimed, the Nationals will have the opportunity to outright him to the minor leagues as a non-roster depth option.

17 Players Exchange Filing Figures

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This evening’s deadline to exchange filing figures has come and gone. The majority of arbitration-eligible players agreed to contracts to avoid going to a hearing. There were 17 instances where the player and team did not come to terms.

Technically, nothing prevents players and teams from continuing to negotiate. However, virtually every team takes a “file-and-trial” approach to the process. Clubs will mostly refuse to continue talks about one-year deals after this date. They’ll often make exceptions for discussions involving multi-year contracts or one-year deals with a club/mutual option. It’s unlikely that all of these players will end up getting to a hearing, but the majority probably will.

If the sides go to a hearing, a three-person arbitration panel will either choose the player’s or the team’s filing figure. They cannot pick a midpoint. That’s designed to prevent the parties from anchoring by filing at extremely high or low figures. Teams’ preferences for the file-and-trial approach follows a similar logic. The idea is to deter players from submitting a higher number from which they could continue to negotiate until the hearing begins.

The list of players who could go to a hearing this winter (service time in parentheses):

Angels

Brewers

Cardinals

Cubs

Dodgers

Nationals

Orioles

Padres

Pirates

Rays

Red Sox

Yankees

—————————————

Tucker and the Cubs have the biggest gap in filing figures at $2.5MM. He’s one of the top two free agents in next year’s class and is unlikely to sign an extension, so they’re almost certainly headed to a hearing. King, who will be one of the best pitchers on the open market next winter, is the only other player with more than $1MM at stake depending on the results of the hearing. The smallest divide is the paltry $150K gap between Rengifo’s and the Angels’ respective filing figures. Hearings are scheduled to begin on January 27 and could run through February 14.

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