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5 Reasons Rich Hill Will Get $45MM+ In Free Agency

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I believe Rich Hill will land a three-year contract worth $45MM or more in free agency this winter.  A year ago, that would’ve seemed insane.  Today marks the one-year anniversary of Hill’s return to a Major League starting rotation after a five-year hiatus.  That September spot start for the Red Sox turned into four, which led to a one-year, $6MM free agent deal from the Athletics in November.  Hill’s success continued this season, albeit with significant time missed due to injuries.  The lefty’s season culminated with seven perfect innings for the Dodgers against the Marlins Saturday night, though it’s not over yet.  Here’s why I believe Hill will get $45MM or more this winter.

  1.  His performance has been otherworldly.  Over the last year, Hill has authored 124 innings of 1.74 ball – the best in baseball over that period.  Hill has ridden his knee-buckling curveball to strike out more than 30% of batters faced (10.6 K/9) during that time.  Even if you just look at pure, total value, Hill ranks 14th with 4.6 wins above replacement.  Hill’s last 124 innings were worth roughly the same as Johnny Cueto’s last 229 2/3 frames.  Hill has pitched 95 innings this year, and FanGraphs values his performance at $28MM.
  2. His age won’t stop him from getting three years.  Hill will turn 37 in March.  Three-year free agent deals are rare at that age, because teams are wary of injuries and decline.  However, I expect Hill to get three years for the same reason Carlos Beltran did in his last contract: it’s the cost of doing business.  If demand is strong enough for Hill’s services, teams will simply have to make three-year offers to have a chance to sign him, even if they don’t expect the contract to end well.  Hill can also make the argument that he will age well, since he’s not reliant on fastball velocity and has less mileage on his arm than a typical pitcher his age.
  3.  His injury history won’t stop him from getting three years.  Rich Hill has an extensive injury history dating back to 2008.  He endured shoulder and elbow surgery in his career, and he’s missed 79 days this season due to a groin injury and blisters on his throwing hand.  I still think he can get a three-year deal, for the same “cost of doing business” reason stated above.  It’s why Scott Kazmir got three years and Brandon McCarthy got four (albeit both from the Dodgers).  It’s true that Hill brings issues of both age and injury history, but his performance has been far stronger than that of a Kazmir or McCarthy.  Plus, many teams throw rationality out the window in free agency.
  4. Rich Hill can be a game-changer for under $50MM.  Why did Dodgers manager Dave Roberts pull Hill in the midst of a perfect game, with 89 pitches thrown?  It’s partially because they know what a huge weapon he can be for them in the postseason if they can keep him healthy.  Simply by virtue of having Clayton Kershaw and Rich Hill in a short series, the Dodgers will be a fearsome playoff opponent.  So maybe you sign Hill to a three-year deal and can only count on 100 innings a year from him.  Those 100 innings could be ace-caliber, and have a large impact on a team’s chance at winning the World Series.  It’s akin to the way a reliever like Aroldis Chapman can have a high overall impact despite throwing only 60 regular season innings.  A lot of teams don’t mind “overpaying” for relievers in free agency, because a Chapman or an Andrew Miller can make such a huge difference at crunch time.  However, Chapman and Kenley Jansen will require contracts well beyond $45MM this winter.  $45MM just isn’t a lot of money in MLB these days, and the upside makes Hill worth the risk.
  5. The free agent market for starting pitching is terrible.  The 2016-17 free agent market for starting pitching is historically bad.  Have a look.  Would you rather throw $30-35MM at Jeremy Hellickson or Ivan Nova, or $45-50MM at Rich Hill?  I don’t know whether the current draft pick compensation system will remain similar under a new Collective Bargaining Agreement, but if it does, Hill could come with the added bonus of not requiring compensation by virtue of his midseason trade.

The X factor in Hill’s future earnings is his own personal preference.  Certainly, he could take less money to pitch in a certain part of the country, as players sometimes do.  Let’s hear your thoughts in the poll below (direct link for mobile app users).

Puig-Braun Blockbuster Nearly Occurred, Likely To Be Revisited

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We heard recently that the Dodgers and Brewers had worked on an August trade that would have sent Yasiel Puig to Milwaukee in exchange for fellow outfielder Ryan Braun. New reports provide interesting new details on the swap, which nearly took place and could well be a viable scenario for the coming winter.

One iteration of the talks would have packaged Puig with righty Brandon McCarthy and a pair of prospects, as MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy recently reported. Indeed, negotiations went right down to the wire before the August 31st deadline, with Braun camping out in the Miller Park clubhouse to await word. The sides “simply ran out of time,” per McCalvy, who adds that both the Giants and Braves have stated interest in the veteran slugger.

Whether or not other trade partners will be reconsidered remains to be seen, but Bob Nightengale of USA Today says that an offseason deal to send Braun to the Dodgers is actually “likely.” According to the report, Braun was advised by the Brewers to stick around and wait until the deadline because a deal seemed so promising at that juncture. Ultimately, the final prospect piece couldn’t be agreed upon.

Braun declined to address the matter, but did note that he grew up a Dodgers fan and spends his winters in the Los Angeles area. “When those conversations started, I think it was an interesting position for me to be in,” he said. Braun’s contract requires him to list up to six teams to which he can freely be traded, and the Dodgers were one club that had a green light this year. If he wanted to gain leverage, he could in theory switch the Dodgers out of that position when his next opportunity to re-name the teams arises, though it seems that Braun has compiled his list based primarily on geographic preference.

The above-noted trade parameters are obviously quite interesting, even before learning what type of prospects would’ve been included. McCarthy’s inclusion would help offset the $76MM in salary obligations owed to Braun after this year, as the veteran hurler will be paid $20MM over the next two seasons and has only just returned from Tommy John surgery. But he also might have filled some innings for Milwaukee while representing an interesting potential bounceback trade piece — especially if his 2019 conditional club option is available. (It has not been reported what type of injury would allow that option to be triggered, but it functions as a variation of the Lackey clause.)

Dodgers Outright Casey Fien

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The Dodgers have outrighted reliever Casey Fien to Triple-A Oklahoma City after designating him for assignment over the weekend in order to clear room for the returning Andre Ethier, according to J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group (on Twitter).

The Dodgers claimed Fien and the remainder of his $2.275MM salary from the Twins back in early May and ultimately received 25 1/3 innings of 4.21 ERA ball out of the 32-year-old. Fien never established himself with the Tigers, who originally drafted him in 2006, but he broke out as a solid setup piece for the Twins in 2012. Fien went on to post a 3.54 ERA in 223 2/3 innings for the Twins from 2012-15, but his strikeout rate plummeted in 2015 and he struggled greatly this season before Minnesota designated him. While his ERA improved with the Dodgers, Fien allowed a stunning eight homers in his short time with L.A., plus another five in his 13 1/3 innings with the Twins. All told, he’s served up 13 long balls in just 39 1/3 innings of work this season en route to a collective 5.49 ERA, although his 8.0 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 are at least somewhat encouraging.

Oklahoma City’s season is still alive in the Pacific Coast League playoffs, so Fien can continue pitching in the Triple-A postseason. However, if he’s not added back to the 40-man roster, he’ll be eligible to elect free agency at season’s end.

Injury Notes: deGrom, Holliday, Benintendi, Wright, Pollock, Kazmir

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The Mets are understandably anxious to get righty Jacob deGrom back on the big league hill, and with minor league seasons wrapping up, they may allow him to ramp up fully while pitching from the bullpen, MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo tweets. DeGrom threw 35 pitches at full tilt today as he recovers from a recent bout of forearm tightness, Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News reports on Twitter, and it seems he could be back in uniform in a few days. It’ll be interesting to see how deGrom is deployed, but regardless, it’s obviously good news for the Mets as they battle for a Wild Card berth.

  • One of New York’s primary competitors, the Cardinals, appear set to welcome back an important piece of their own in outfielder Matt Holliday, MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch reports on Twitter. The veteran reported that his injured thumb felt good after an on-field BP session today. It still seems unlikely that St. Louis will pick up its $17MM club option on Holliday for 2017, though team and player could always work out an alternative arrangement.
  • Likewise, the Red Sox will get back an outfielder for the stretch run. Rookie Andrew Benintendi may be ready to go by the middle of the week after making good progress following a knee injury, manager John Farrell told reporters including Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal. The left-handed hitter is likely to return in a time share, despite his immense early production, as the righty-swinging Chris Young is hitting well since he was activated from a DL stint.
  • The news wasn’t as good for Red Sox righty Steven Wright, who is dealing with shoulder issues, ESPN.com’s Scott Lauber reports. The knuckler may be able to begin throwing soon, but Farrell suggested that it will be a “challenge” for him to return to full duty in time to play a role late in the regular season or even the playoffs. Wright, 32, hasn’t maintained his breakout first-half production, managing only a 5.06 ERA in 42 2/3 innings over his most recent seven outings.
  • Diamondbacks center fielder A.J. Pollock is expected to return at some point over the next few weeks, Jack Magruder of Fan Rag tweets. After working back from a broken bone in his elbow that took most of his season, Pollock went down recently with a groin strain. But it seems he’ll be able to log a few more plate appearances late in the year, with the training staff saying that he is ahead of schedule in recovering.
  • It’s still unclear what, if anything, the Dodgers can expect from southpaw Scott Kazmir, who has been diagnosed with thoracic spinal inflammation. Manager Dave Roberts says that he hasn’t been updated as to Kazmir’s status, Andy McCullough of the Los Angeles Times tweets. The entire campaign has been a struggle for the veteran lefty, but he has been hit harder (.277/.333/.493) in seven starts over the second half and it’s not at all apparent whether he’ll be a factor in the postseason. With two years and $32MM left on his contract, Kazmir seems unlikely to trigger his opt-out clause after the season.

Dodgers Release Randy Choate, Matt West

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The Dodgers released left-hander Randy Choate and right-hander Matt West at the start of the month, Eric Stephen of the True Blue LA blog reports.  Neither pitcher appeared in the big leagues in 2016, with Choate tossing 17 2/3 innings at three levels of the Dodgers’ farm system while West threw 46 relief innings for Triple-A Oklahoma City.

Choate posted a 7.13 ERA, 10.2 K/9 and 2.5 K/BB rate this season, though that inflated ERA is somewhat misleading.  Choate has been strictly a lefty specialist for years in the bigs, yet in the minors, he actually faced more right-handed batters (who had a whopping 1.143 OPS against him in 43 PA) than he did left-handed batters (who managed just a .578 OPS in 41 PA).

It’s probably unlikely, though not totally out of the question, that a team looking for southpaw bullpen depth down the stretch could sign Choate with an eye towards using him in his old LOOGY role.  Choate signed his minor league deal with the Dodgers in June after he was released by the Blue Jays in Spring Training, and (this is purely speculation on my part) Toronto stands out as one contender who has struggled to find effective left-handed relief pitching this season.  If Choate does manage to catch on somewhere and appear in a big league game, the 41-year-old will have officially played in parts of 16 Major League seasons.

West, 27, had a strong year at Triple-A, posting a 2.33 ERA, 7.4 K/9 and 4.75 K/BB over his 46 frames.  A second-round pick for Texas in the 2007 draft, West converted from infielder to pitcher in 2011 and has a 3.54 ERA over 203 2/3 career innings in the minors.  He had cups of coffee with the Rangers (three games) in 2014 and the Dodgers (two games) in 2015.

Cafardo: Dodgers, Brewers Could Revisit Puig, Braun Talks

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  • The Brewers and Dodgers are likely to revisit talks centering on outfielders Ryan Braun and Yasiel Puig in the offseason, a Dodgers source told Cafardo. Los Angeles placed Puig on revocable waivers in August, and the Brewers won the claim. The teams then discussed him and Braun, but a deal didn’t come to fruition.

    [SOURCE LINK]

Dave Roberts On Rich Hill’s Near-Perfect Game

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The Dodgers’ Rich Hill was six outs away from throwing a perfect game against the Marlins on Saturday, but manager Dave Roberts made the difficult decision to pull him after only 89 pitches. On the heels of Hill’s departure, Marlins outfielder Jeff Francoeur ended the Dodgers’ perfect game bid with an eighth-inning single off Joe Blanton.

Roberts explained why he made the move afterward, revealing that there were signs of the nagging blister on Hill’s left index finger returning, tweets Andy McCullough of the Los Angeles Times. Hill, who struck out nine and could have tossed the 24th perfect game in major league history, countered Roberts by telling reporters that his finger felt fine (Twitter link via Ken Gurnick of MLB.com).

“I feel sick to my stomach,” said Roberts, who was on the verge of tears, per McCullough (Twitter links). “I’m going to lose sleep tonight. And I probably should.” 

The Dodgers logged a 5-0 win to improve to 80-61 – good for a 4 1/2-game lead in the National League West. However, Roberts added that this particular victory feels like a loss (Twitter link via McCullough). This isn’t the first time Roberts has elected to stop one of his pitchers from a chance at making history, though his call to remove right-hander Ross Stripling from a no-hitter in his April 8 major league debut against the Giants wasn’t nearly as controversial. Stripling had already thrown 100 pitches through 7 1/3 innings, and Roberts said it was a “no-brainer” to take the rookie out of what was a tight game.

Hill, meanwhile, has cruised all year, having compiled a 1.80 ERA, 10.42 K/9 and 2.84 BB/9 in 95 innings, but injuries have robbed him of enjoying a full campaign. While the blister issue has bothered the 36-year-old journeyman since mid-July, that didn’t stop the Dodgers from trading a haul to the Athletics for him and outfielder Josh Reddick before the Aug. 1 non-waiver trade deadline. LA has reaped the rewards when Hill has pitched, as he has spun 19 scoreless innings with 20 strikeouts and two walks in three starts. Ideally for the Dodgers, Hill will serve as an integral component of a playoff rotation in October, and their World Series hopes unsurprisingly factored into Roberts’ move to pull him.

“Nothing in my opinion is worth compromising our opportunity to win a championship,” offered Roberts (Twitter link via Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register).

In addition to trying to help the Dodgers win a title, a healthy Hill could pitch his way into a rich contract during the upcoming offseason. Despite his age, limited track record and durability questions, Hill will likely cash in as arguably the best starter in a weak free agent market. Hill was toiling in the independent Atlantic League a summer ago, but he has performed like an ace since a four-start stretch with the Red Sox last September.

Scott Kazmir Has Thoracic Spine Inflammation; Return Questionable

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SATURDAY: Kazmir has been diagnosed with thoracic spine inflammation, tweets Plunkett, who adds that there’s no timetable for his return.

FRIDAY: Kazmir will undergo a bone scan in the “thoracic region,” Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register was among those to report (links to Twitter). While results aren’t yet known, skipper Dave Roberts suggested that the lefty will require a “shutdown period” of “a couple weeks.” With less than a month left in the season, it seems uncertain at this point whether Kazmir will be able to return in 2016.

The Dodgers are set to turn to De Leon and Urias for starts early next week, Plunkett further tweets.

WEDNESDAY: Dodgers left-hander Scott Kazmir exited his rehab start with Triple-A Oklahoma City tonight after experiencing a recurrence of the same neck pain and ribcage pain that initially landed him on the disabled list, reports J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group. The 32-year-old is traveling back to Los Angeles to be reevaluated, he adds.

Kazmir faced just seven hitters, per Hoornstra, walking a pair of batters and hitting another pair. Had the rehab outing gone well, Kazmir would have been on track to rejoin the rotation early next week, but it’s now possible that top prospect Jose De Leon, who delivered a quality start and struck out nine in his MLB debut last week, could get another turn in the rotation.

Kazmir is in the first season of a three-year, $48MM contract with the Dodgers, and the year hasn’t gone as well as either he or the team would’ve liked. While he’s made 25 starts, Kazmir has averaged just over 5 1/3 innings per outing, totaling 135 1/3 innings this season and logging a lackluster 4.59 ERA. The sub-par performance is especially noteworthy, as it lessens the likelihood that Kazmir will exercise the opt-out clause in his contract this winter in search of a larger deal on the free agent market. Kazmir’s deal calls for him to earn $16MM in each of the next two seasons.

The Dodgers’ roster has been absolutely ravaged by injuries this season, and while they’ll get the most important piece of all back on Friday in the form of Clayton Kershaw, a number of other rotation options remain sidelined. Kazmir is joined on the shelf by Brett Anderson, Brandon McCarthy, Hyun-jin Ryu and Alex Wood at the moment. Rich Hill is back and has been terrific in two starts for them, though, and Kenta Maeda has been a solid rotation piece all season long. The Dodgers also have impressive rookies De Leon and  Julio Urias, as well as right-handers Bud Norris, Brock Stewart and Ross Stripling as rotation options as they look to expand their four-game NL West lead over the Giants.

Dodgers Designate Casey Fien, Activate Andre Ethier

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The Dodgers have announced that they’ve designated righty Casey Fien for assignment. The move clears roster space for outfielder Andre Ethier, who has been reinstated from the 60-day DL.

[Related: Updated Los Angeles Dodgers Depth Chart]

The Dodgers claimed Fien from the Twins in May after four-plus years in Minnesota. He pitched 25 2/3 innings for his new team, posting a 4.21 ERA, 8.1 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 while showing a slight increase in his velocity from previous seasons. His season was marred somewhat by a late-summer DL stint due to elbow tendonitis, however, and he allowed eight home runs. He’s making $2.28MM this season, and is eligible for arbitration again this winter. The Dodgers have evidently decided they can risk exposing him to waivers.

The 34-year-old Ethier has missed the entire season to this point after a foul ball broke his leg in March. He’s coming off a strong .294/.366/.486 season in 2015. News of his return broke earlier this week, with Dodgers manager Dave Roberts saying (via Andy McCullough of the Los Angeles Times) that the team would initially use him primarily as a pinch-hitter and spot-starter. As McCullough notes, the Dodgers currently have plenty of outfielders, with Joc Pederson, Howie Kendrick, Josh Reddick, Yasiel Puig, Andrew Toles and Rob Segedin also on hand.

Alex Anthopoulos Says He’s No Longer A Candidate For Twins Job

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SATURDAY: Anthopoulos has told colleagues that the timing is poor for him to take a top baseball operations job elsewhere, Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press writes. That means he won’t be taking a new job with the Twins. The Dodgers exec recently had his family join him in the Los Angeles area, and his two young children are recently started school.

TUESDAY: Alex Anthopoulos is a “confirmed candidate” to take over the Twins’ soon-to-be-created position of president of baseball operations, Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports on Twitter. He becomes the first potential front office candidate clearly linked to the organization.

Minnesota has reportedly begun a search to add both a PBOp as well as a general manager, adopting some form of the two-tiered front office structure that has become popular around the league. The team has been relying upon Rob Antony as interim GM after parting ways with Terry Ryan earlier this year.

The 39-year-old Anthopoulos is best known for his turn as the GM of the Blue Jays from late 2009 through 2015. After putting together a postseason club last year — the organization’s first berth 1993 — he ended up parting ways with the club in a surprising series of events.

Toronto hired Mark Shapiro as president, reportedly promising him final authority over baseball decisionmaking. While the Jays attempted to retain Anthopoulos, offering him a five-year deal that he could have opted out of after a single season, he declined to continue with the new leadership and somewhat-altered parameters of his role.

Since that time, Anthopoulos has been working for the Dodgers as a Vice President, joining several other prominent former top baseball operations personnel in the Los Angeles front office. At the time of his hiring, Anthopoulos expressed interest in a long-term gig there — while also noting that he’d be intrigued by the idea of running his own shop again.

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