Fernando Tatis Jr.’s Power Outage
The Padres are 36 games into their season. Outfielder Fernando Tatis Jr. is still searching for his first home run. The 27-year-old has yet to leave the yard despite hitting the ball harder than just about everyone. Tatis was slugging .305 heading into Wednesday, nearly 200 points below his career mark. He has six extra-base hits in 148 plate appearances.
Tatis isn’t going to get shut out in the home run column all season. He’s recorded 12 barrels, which should’ve translated to around a half-dozen homers, based on the rate those batted-ball events tend to leave the yard. Luis Rengifo has the second-most barrels without a home run at six. Last season, Jose Tena had the most barrels without a home run, also with six. If he continues to barrel the ball at a 12.5% clip, Tatis will get on the board before long.
Since his 42-homer season in 2021, Tatis has been more of a mid-20s guy in the power department. He has exactly 25 dingers in his two full campaigns during that stretch. Injuries and an 80-game PED suspension sidelined Tatis for all of 2022. A stress fracture in his leg cost him two months in 2024, but he still hit 21 home runs in 102 games. Even as Tatis’ combination of power and speed has trended toward the latter, he’s still been an extremely productive offensive force. The outfielder has had a wRC+ above 130 in each of the past two seasons.
Tatis has slashed .250/.320/.305 through 34 games. He’s been 20% worse than league average at the plate by wRC+. And that’s with a .337 BABIP, his highest since his rookie season. So, what’s gone wrong for the superstar?
Suboptimal directional contact
The easiest way to turn loud contact into a parade of singles is to use the whole field. Tatis had been almost exactly league average in terms of directional contact for his career. His pulled, up the middle, and opposite field contact rates have seldom skewed more than 5% off of the league norm. Tatis has upended that trend this season. He’s pulling the ball just 20.8% of the time (per Statcast), well below the league average of 37.4% and nowhere near his career mark of 37.7%. Tatis is going up the middle at a massive 46.9% clip, nearly 10% higher than league average. He’s using the opposite field on 32.3% of his batted balls, a nearly 7% jump from his previous career high (25.4% in 2024).
Using the whole field isn’t inherently bad, particularly when you rank in the 99th percentile in hard-hit rate. Tatis has a solid .280 expected batting average, which ranks in the 82nd percentile. It’s just not the ideal path toward turning hard hits into damage.
Decline in fly balls
Tatis isn’t just spraying the ball more than ever. He’s also hitting it on the ground at a career-high 52.1% rate. Tatis has typically leaned slightly higher than average on grounders, but his lifetime mark was only a couple of percentage points above the league average of 44.2%. Tatis still provided plenty of power with a 49.0% groundball rate in 2025, which was a career-high at the time. He posted a sub-20% line drive rate for the first time as a big leaguer, but his fly ball rate remained intact last season.
The jump in groundballs has come at the expense of fly balls this year. Tatis’ line drive rate is up to 28.1%, the best of his career. He’s trimmed his pop-up rate to 3.1%. But Tatis is lifting the ball at just a 16.7% clip, a 9% drop from his career average, and well below the leaguewide mark of 24.1%. He’s also pulling the ball in the air at a career-low 5.2% rate. It’s the eighth-lowest mark among qualified hitters. The bottom 10 in pulled air rate is littered with no-power speedsters like Victor Scott II, Chandler Simpson, Jake Mangum, and Luisangel Acuna. It’s not the kind of group you want to be in, particularly as a high-impact offensive contributor.
Bump in strikeouts
Tatis entered the league with a swing-and-miss issue. He had a strikeout rate near 30% with a concerning 67.1% contact rate as a rookie. Even during the massive 2021 season, when he finished third in NL MVP voting, Tatis struck out at a bloated 28.0% rate. He had the fifth-lowest contact rate among qualified hitters. While the power has ticked down in recent seasons, Tatis has also made more contact. He was in the low-20s for strikeout rate in 2023 and 2024. The 2025 campaign saw him punch out at just a 18.7% clip.
The strikeout rate has jumped back up to 25.0% in 2026. Tatis’ called strike + swinging strike rate is at 26.9%, his highest since 2021. His whiff rate is above 30% for the first time in three seasons. These numbers are in line with the first three seasons of Tatis’ career, but he was a premier power bat in those years.
Now what?
The Padres handed Tatis a 14-year, $340MM extension heading into the 2021 season. It gets more expensive the longer it goes. Tatis will be making $36MM a year from 2029 through 2032. He’s generally been worth the money up to this point, lost 2022 season aside. Tatis has been a 5+ WAR player (per Baseball Reference) in 2021, 2023, and 2025. He has two Gold Gloves for his splendid work in right field, and he’s chipped in some additional defensive value by playing second base this year. It’d be nice if he hit more like a corner outfielder than a second baseman.
Tatis appears to be himself from a physical perspective. His bat speed remains elite at 74.6 mph, and his fast swing rate is higher than ever (51.1%). His stance is a bit more closed, and he’s standing slightly further back from the plate, but he hasn’t made any massive changes with his setup. Tatis’ intercept point is much closer to the plate than normal, which explains the change in contact direction. His sprint speed is right in line with the past couple of years. He’s not broken. He’s just been the worst parts of his previous selves in 2026.
Photo courtesy of David Frerker, Imagn Images
Randy Vásquez’s Hot Start Could Be Huge For The Padres
Rotation depth has been an issue for the Padres for years and the most recent offseason didn’t do much to inspire confidence that 2026 would be an exception. So far, the starting group has been passable, with Randy Vásquez stepping up to play a big role. That has helped the Friars start 20-13 and it could help in future seasons as well if Vásquez can keep rolling.
In 2025, the San Diego rotation was middling. Overall, their starters had a 4.07 earned run average, putting them 16th out of the 30 major league clubs. At the trade deadline, they sent out some depth. They flipped Stephen Kolek and Ryan Bergert to the Royals in the Freddy Fermin trade. Braden Nett and Henry Baez went to the Athletics in the Mason Miller deal. At the end of the season, they lost Dylan Cease and Michael King to free agency. Yu Darvish required elbow surgery in November, wiping out his 2026 season.
They were able to re-sign King but Cease departed for the Blue Jays. The hope was that King, Nick Pivetta and Joe Musgrove could be a solid trio at the front of the 2026 rotation. That would leave two spots open for guys like Vásquez, Walker Buehler, Germán Márquez, Matt Waldron and JP Sears.
That latter group has been leaned on harder than the Padres would have liked. Musgrove hasn’t yet made an appearance this season. He underwent Tommy John surgery late in 2024 and missed the entire 2025 campaign. Getting back in the mix for the start of 2026 was a reasonable expectation but he has hit some setbacks and his timeline is unclear. Pivetta made four starts before he joined Musgrove on the IL. Pivetta has a flexor strain and will probably miss a few months.
As of a few weeks ago, there wasn’t much reason to expect Vásquez to separate himself from the rest of the pack. He did post a 3.84 ERA in 2025, but not in any kind of sustainable way. He only struck out 13.7% of batters faced last year, which isn’t just well shy of average — it was one of the worst marks in baseball. Among pitchers with 130 innings pitched last year, only Antonio Senzatela and Erick Fedde were lower than Vásquez in that category. Both of those pitchers had ERAs well north of 5.00 and lost their rotation jobs last year.
The same likely would have happened to Vásquez if not for good luck. For one thing, he still had options, meaning the Padres could send him to the minors. Though his ERA was good, he did get optioned a few times last year, suggesting the Padres weren’t overly confident in his results. His .261 batting average on balls in play and 77.4% strand rate were both to the fortunate side. Measures like his 4.85 FIP and his 5.43 SIERA suggested his respectable ERA was a mirage.
It would not have been a surprise if Vásquez came out and posted an ERA around 5.00 or 6.00 this year. Since he’s now out of options, his roster spot might have even been in jeopardy. Instead, he’s gone completely in the other direction.
Vásquez has a 2.94 ERA through six starts. Not only that, but this feels more real. His strikeout rate is way up to 24.8% so far this year, almost double where he was at last year. His walk rate and ground ball rate have held around league average. There is still a bit of good luck, as Vásquez currently has an 81.5% strand rate, but his 3.44 FIP and 3.71 SIERA suggest he would be getting solid results even with more neutral luck.
This is still a fairly small sample of work but it’s encouraging that it corresponds to a change in his arsenal, led by improvements with his four-seam fastball. Vásquez is throwing the pitch 31.2% of the time so far this year, a notable jump from last year’s 21% usage. The pitch is averaging 94.8 miles per hour, more than a full mile higher than last year’s 93.5 mph. His spin rate on the pitch is up, and he’s getting more movement on it as well. He has also thrown more cutters, curveballs, changeups and sliders, at the expense of his sinker and sweeper.
Time will tell if Vásquez can keep this going over a larger sample. For now, it has cemented him in the rotation. Griffin Canning just returned from the injured list over the weekend and there was never a question about Vásquez being bumped out, as he and King are seen as the two locks of the rotation for now. Rather, speculation circled around the Buehler, Waldron and Márquez trio, with Márquez eventually placed on the IL as the move for Canning. Lucas Giolito will be in the mix soon as well, but Vásquez won’t be at risk of losing his spot at that point either.
In the longer term, it would also be tremendous for the Padres if Vásquez can be a viable big league starter, even a back-end one. He can still be controlled for four seasons after the current campaign. It’s possible he’ll be a Super Two guy, as his service count of 1.129 will put him right in the middle of previous cutoffs. But even as his salary creeps up via arbitration, it’ll be solid value if he’s got an ERA somewhere in the 3.00s.
The long-term San Diego rotation will still have question marks. King is signed through 2028 but has opt-outs after each season in his deal. If he pitches well, he’ll head to free agency. If he is hurt or not performing and decides not to opt out, that means he’ll be paid above his market value. It’s a similar situation for Pivetta, who is also signed through 2028 with opt-outs after this year and next. Musgrove is currently a question mark. Even if he is able to come back and be his old self, he is only signed through 2027. Giolito, Canning, Buehler and Márquez are all impending free agents. Three of those guys have mutual options for 2027 but it’s been over a decade since one of those provisions was triggered by both sides. Waldron has the same window of club control as Vásquez but he’s out of options and not putting up good numbers, so he may not even last much longer on the roster.
The farm isn’t likely to provide solutions in the near term, as the Friars have been aggressively trading from their pipeline to keep the major league roster in good shape. They now have one of the worst farm systems in the league. Sears is on the 40-man but he had an ERA over 5.00 in the majors last year and is at 7.00 in Triple-A so far in 2026. He’ll be out of options next year. The club’s top starting pitching prospects are Kash Mayfield, Miguel Mendez and Kruz Schoolcraft. Mendez hasn’t yet reached Triple-A and has only made ten Double-A starts so far. Mayfield is in High-A, Schoolcraft in Low-A.
It seems fair to expect the Padres to be looking for free agent starting pitching in future offseasons. Perhaps the incoming ownership group will greenlight some extra spending to bolster the staff, but there are no guarantees about how they’ll spend. Having Vásquez securely in a rotation spot, even if it’s not at the front end, will make the front office’s job much easier as they steer the club into the future.
Photo courtesy of David Frerker, Imagn Images
Kazuma Okamoto Is Settling In Nicely For The Blue Jays
Kazuma Okamoto signed a four-year, $60MM deal with the Blue Jays this offseason after a long tenure as one of Japan’s top sluggers. Compared to Munetaka Murakami and Tatsuya Imai, whose deals with the White Sox and Astros were well below industry expectations, Okamoto’s contract was roughly in line with MLBTR’s four-year, $64MM prediction. Early into his major league career, the third baseman is proving to be a capable hitter.
Okamoto was best known for his power during his tenure with the Yomiuri Giants of Nippon Professional Baseball. He hit a total of 247 home runs from 2018-25, including 30 or more in every season from 2018-23. Impressively, Okamoto achieved this while also striking out at rates that would be much better than average by MLB standards. He did not strike out more than 18.8% of the time in every season from 2020-25, and he walked and struck out at even 11.3% rates in 2025.
Some adjustment was expected as Okamoto transitioned to the Majors. Even in that context, he was generally expected to be a solid hitter with better-than-average contact and power, plus serviceable defense at the hot corner. The early returns have been decent. Through his first 128 plate appearances, Okamoto has batted .228/.313/.430 with seven home runs and a 107 wRC+. His 29.7% strikeout rate is higher than the Jays would like, but Okamoto is also walking at a 10.9% clip and outpacing the league-average .320 wOBA by 11 points. Put simply, he could stand to make more contact, but he’s getting on base and doing enough damage on contact to make up for it.
Okamoto is also quieting concerns about his struggles against high-velocity pitching. As noted by FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen, Okamoto was inconsistent against fastballs thrown at 94 MPH or higher in Japan. That has not been the case in 2026. Per Statcast, Okamoto is batting .303/.361/.636 against four-seamers 94 MPH and above, with a .428 wOBA in those plate appearances. For comparison, the league output against 94 MPH+ four-seamers is .233/.333/.398 with a .330 wOBA.
That Okamoto is adapting so well to high-velocity pitching is great news for Toronto. The 29-year-old was their main offensive addition in a winter that saw Bo Bichette leave for the Mets and Kyle Tucker spurn the club’s $350MM offer for a short-term pact with the Dodgers. The net result was swapping Bichette for Okamoto, creating some downside risk for what was a Top-5 offense in the Majors in 2025. So far this year, the Jays’ offense is a Bottom-10 unit with a 92 wRC+. That is no fault of Okamoto, as he and Ernie Clement (108 wRC+) are the team’s only above-average hitters other than Guerrero. When you also consider that Okamoto has held his own on defense, he looks like a perfectly fine all-around player.
With Murakami dominating at the plate for the White Sox, Okamoto’s output may feel underwhelming by comparison. That said, he doesn’t need to be an otherworldly hitter to live up to his deal, even with his track record from NPB. By most estimates, Okamoto’s $15MM average annual salary is equivalent to 1.5-2 WAR – i.e., a decent regular rather than an All-Star. So far, he is hitting for power and providing serviceable defense, as he was expected to. There is room to grow, namely by cutting back on strikeouts and hitting non-four seam fastballs, against which Okamoto is hitting just .069/.182/.069. Overall, given the size of his contract and who he is replacing in the lineup, Okamoto has been about as valuable as could be expected.
Photo courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn, Imagn Images
Checking In On Hitters Who Accepted Qualifying Offers
Out of 13 players who received the qualifying offer this winter, four chose to accept. There were two hitters in that group: Trent Grisham and Gleyber Torres. Grisham was coming off a career-best year with the Yankees, in which he hit 34 home runs and tallied a 129 wRC+ even as his defense regressed. Meanwhile, Torres posted a 113 wRC+ for the Tigers in 2025 and earned his third career All-Star nomination, rebounding nicely from an underwhelming final year in New York. In the end, both opted to remain with their clubs, locking in a $22.025MM salary for 2026 and setting themselves up for a return trip to free agency after the season.
Today, we’ll take a look at how Grisham and Torres have performed in 2026 and whether they will live up to their qualifying offers.
Yankees: Trent Grisham
Grisham was a below-average hitter from 2022-24, as he struggled to make enough contact or take advantage of his power. He continued to provide value as a center fielder, earning 11 Defensive Runs Saved and 22 Outs Above Average in that three-year span. That made Grisham’s performance in 2025 all the more surprising. For the first time in a full season, he was a well above average hitter, while his defense regressed from being an asset to a liability (-11 DRS and -2 OAA). There were reasons to believe Grisham’s offense could stick. Behind the surface-level numbers, he posted career-highs in average exit velocity (91.1 MPH) and hard-hit rate (46.4%), in addition to cutting back slightly on strikeouts. If he could repeat as an above-average hitter, he would be a top center fielder in the game, even if his defense didn’t fully recover.
The early returns in 2026 have been underwhelming. Grisham’s .155/.297/.320 line through 118 plate appearances amounts to just a 79 wRC+ He is walking more and striking out less than 20% of the time, but his contact and power are lagging behind last year’s numbers. The Yankees aren’t sounding the alarm, though. As ugly as that batting average is, Grisham also been incredibly unlucky. He is batting just .151 on balls in play, which is more than 100 points below his career .259 mark. His expected batting average (.220) and expected slugging (.430) are also significantly higher than his actual numbers, so it’s likely that Grisham will improve as he gets more reps.
Beyond his output, the Yankees are also happy just to have continuity in their outfield. Jasson Dominguez was merely fine at the plate last year, though his defense remains a question mark long-term. He started this year in the minors and only returned for a few games before landing on the injured list. Otherwise, the trio of Cody Bellinger, Grisham, and Aaron Judge was one of the league’s best outfield trios last year, so it made sense to run it back. The club is hoping for more out of Grisham this year than what he’s provided so far, but the underlying metrics point to at least average offense as the season goes on. All things considered, the 2026 version of Grisham might be a solid center fielder, if not the force he was last year.
Tigers: Gleyber Torres
Torres improved his strikeout and walk rates from 2024 to 2025, while his power remained roughly the same. The incremental improvements brought his wRC+ from 105 to 113, making Torres one of the better hitting second basemen in the Majors. Defensively, Torres’ -4 DRS and -4 OAA at second base were in line with expectations, as he’s always been a below-average fielder. His defense will be a larger concern as he ages, but on a one-year, $15MM prove-it deal, the Tigers could afford it given Torres’ value on offense.
The jump from $15MM to $22.025MM wasn’t as drastic as Grisham’s salary increase (+$17.025MM) for the Yankees. From that lens, Torres was better positioned to provide value for the Tigers if he simply repeated last year’s output. So far in 2026, he has been slightly above average, but a step down from his 2025 numbers. To his credit, Torres is walking at a 17.6% clip and only striking out 15.5% of the time. However, that’s been undone by a drop in power. His isolated slugging is sitting at .070, a steep decline from last year’s mark of .132. Torres gets on base at a .380 clip, which mitigates the power drop somewhat, but he also doesn’t make enough contact to fully overcome it.
This performance isn’t entirely unexpected when viewed in context with Torres’ second-half numbers from 2025. After hitting over 40% better than average in May and June, he was roughly average in July (102 wRC+), then below average in August (94 wRC+) and September/October (82 wRC+). Torres was playing through pain and underwent surgery for a sports hernia in October, which partly explains the second-half decline. His average exit velocity is down to just 83.3 MPH in 2026, so it’s possible Torres is still dealing with the effects of a disrupted offseason and will need longer to get going. For now, he is getting on base enough to remain above average, and the club will bank on a full return to form the further away he gets from the surgery.
Photo courtesy of Vincent Carchietta, Imagn Images
Foster Griffin, Early Prize Of The International Free Agent Arms
The 2025-26 free agent class featured a lengthy list of pitchers coming over from Asia. They brought varying resumes and asking prices but were typically lumped together during offseason discussions. Left-hander Foster Griffin was one of the less heralded members of the group. Despite the lack of fanfare, he’s off to the best start.
Griffin landed with the Nationals on a modest one-year, $5.5MM agreement. A 2014 first-round draft pick, Griffin pitched briefly with the Royals and Blue Jays in parts of two seasons. After six MLB appearances in 2022, he departed for Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. Griffin put together three strong campaigns with the Yomiuri Giants. The lefty delivered a 2.57 ERA with a 25.1% strikeout rate across 54 appearances (53 starts). Griffin missed time in 2025 with a leg injury that limited him to 78 innings. He was excellent when healthy, posting a 1.62 ERA backed by a 2.35 xFIP.
Through six starts, Griffin basically looks like the guy he was during his NPB stint. It’s a 2.67 ERA with decent strikeouts and a low walk rate. The main difference has been home runs, as Griffin has been taken deep five times in 33 2/3 innings. His worst home run per nine innings rate in Japan was a 0.69 mark in 2024. That number is up to 1.34 with Washington. The increase in long balls makes sense given the league context of MLB compared to NPB.
Griffin returned to big-league action with nearly twice as many pitches as he had in his last MLB stint. The lefty has added a sweeper, sinker, and splitter to a repertoire that included a four-seamer, cutter, curveball, and changeup. He’s throwing them all regularly, too. Griffin has used all seven of his pitches at least 7.8% of the time. The cutter leads the way at 30.1%, but no other Griffin offering has more than a 16% usage rate.
The diverse arsenal has helped Griffin limit damage, even with a fastball that averages 91 mph. His 37.9% hard-hit rate and 88.9 mph average exit velocity are squarely league average. Griffin’s 12.6% barrel rate is a concerning mark and could explain the elevated home run numbers. The lefty’s 3.94 xFIP and 3.95 SIERA suggest he won’t be a sub-3.00 ERA pitcher for long, but the ingredients are there for Griffin to stabilize a rotation without many reliable arms.
The Nationals filled out their pitching staff with cheap veterans around Cade Cavalli and Jake Irvin. Zack Littell (one-year, $7MM) and Miles Mikolas (one-year, $2.25MM) joined Griffin as experienced arms capable of eating innings. Littell has allowed a league-leading 13 home runs, four more than any other pitcher. Mikolas was hammered for 15 earned runs in his first two outings. He’s since been moved to a bulk relief role, though he started against the Mets today. Littell and Mikolas might not be long for the rotation, but going 1-for-3 on a group of free agent pitchers that cost less than $15MM combined seems like a win for new president of baseball operations Paul Toboni.
There are some signs to suggest it may not be sustainable. Griffin has allowed a .233 batting average on balls in play and has a 90.3% strand rate, both very fortunate numbers. That’s why some measures like his aforementioned xFIP and SIERA are not as bullish on his work so far this season. It’s possible he’s been walking a tightrope in this small sample and could fall off at any point.
Caveats aside, it’s not as though the other guys who crossed the Pacific are doing any better. Here’s a quick review of the other pitchers to come over from Asia this offseason…
Tatsuya Imai, Houston Astros (three years, $54MM)
Imai was one of the biggest starting pitchers on the market this winter. MLBTR ranked him at No. 7 in the annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents article. The righty earned his first MLB win with 5 2/3 scoreless innings against the Athletics, but that outing was sandwiched by two disastrous starts against the Angels and Mariners. Imai was pulled in the first inning in Seattle after four walks and a hit by pitch. He soon went on the IL with right arm fatigue.
Cody Ponce, Toronto Blue Jays (three years, $30MM)
Ponce came in at No. 39 on our top free agents list. He pitched in NPB and the Korea Baseball Organization over the past four seasons. Ponce’s long-awaited MLB return was ruined by a knee injury in his first start. He came up limping after reaching for a ground ball and was eventually diagnosed with a torn ACL. Ponce pitched well in MLB Spring Training, but his 2026 MLB sample will consist of just 2 1/3 innings.
Ryan Weiss, Houston Astros (one year, $2.6MM)
It was a winding road for Weiss to get to the big leagues. The former Diamondbacks farmhand spent time in the independent Atlantic League, Taiwan’s Chinese Professional Baseball League, and KBO before winding up with the Astros. Weiss has mostly been used in long relief. He’s recorded a 6.65 ERA across 21 2/3 frames. Weiss has punched out more than a batter per inning, but he has a bloated 15.1% walk rate. He’s also allowed a home run in six of eight appearances. Free baserunners and a penchant for homers is a rough combination.
Anthony Kay, Chicago White Sox (two years, $12MM)
Kay came in with the most MLB experience of the group. He pitched in parts of five seasons with the Blue Jays, Cubs, and Mets. The lefty had some prospect pedigree when he debuted with Toronto in 2019, but the results tended to be underwhelming. Kay has scuffled to a 6.12 ERA in six appearances with the White Sox. He’s shown the improved velocity that put him back on the MLB radar, sitting 95.8 mph with the four-seamer, but the pitch has been pounded for a .368 BA and a .684 SLG.
Drew Anderson, Detroit Tigers (one year, $7MM)
Anderson last pitched in the big leagues with Texas in 2021. He put together a strong MLB Spring Training (0.69 ERA, 33.3% strikeout rate) and broke camp as the long man in Detroit’s bullpen. Anderson has struck out opponents at a solid 25.8% clip, but he’s also been done in by walks (12.1%) and home runs (1.80 HR/9). The righty does have a sub-4.00 xFIP and SIERA, so perhaps better days are ahead. He pitched two scoreless innings to get the win against the Braves this afternoon.
Photo courtesy of Michael McLoone, Imagn Images
2026-27 Club Options: AL Central
Last week, MLBTR began a division by division series looking at the club/mutual option decisions facing every team in the American League East. We’ll continue with a move to the AL Central. There aren’t a ton of notable decisions in this division, but the Tigers will have a couple — one involving their likely Hall of Fame closer.
Chicago White Sox
- Austin Hays, OF: $8MM mutual option ($1MM buyout)
Hays signed a $6MM free agent guarantee with the White Sox over the offseason. He’s making a $5MM salary and will collect a $1MM buyout on an $8MM mutual option for 2027. That’s an accounting measure designed to delay paying the final million until the end of the season. This is essentially a one-year deal.
The righty-swinging Hays has worked mostly in a platoon capacity over the past few seasons. He signed with Chicago largely because he felt they offered the best path to everyday playing time. Hays started slowly, striking out 12 times in his first nine games. He landed on the injured list with a strained right hamstring and missed three weeks.
The Sox activated him on Monday but have turned left field over to rookie Sam Antonacci in the interim. With Everson Pereira out to a nice start in the opposite corner, Hays is probably back in a fourth outfield role.
Cleveland Guardians
- Shawn Armstrong, RHP: $8MM mutual option ($1.5MM buyout)
Cleveland reunited with Armstrong on a one-year, $5.5MM contract in free agency. The veteran reliever is making $4MM this year and guaranteed a $1.5MM buyout on an $8MM mutual option.
The Guardians are likely to decline their end even if Armstrong pitches up to expectations. He’ll be entering his age-36 season and doesn’t have the power arsenal that usually pays in free agency. Armstrong’s fastball sits around 93 mph and he has never had huge swinging strike rates. He’s more of a command-oriented reliever, though he has walked seven batters over his first 10 2/3 frames this season.
Armstrong has had a tougher time getting hitters to expand the strike zone, leading to the uptick in free passes. He has given up five runs but has fanned 13 of 47 batters faced. He has three holds while working in mostly medium leverage situations. Armstrong landed on the injured list on Monday with a right groin strain.
- Emmanuel Clase, RHP: $10MM club option ($2MM buyout)
Clase is on unpaid non-administrative leave pending the investigation into an alleged game-fixing scheme. He’s not making his $6MM salary this year, nor does it seem likely he’ll collect the $2MM option buyout.
- Trevor Stephan, RHP: $7.25MM club option ($1.25MM buyout)
Stephan’s career has unfortunately gone off the rails since he underwent Tommy John surgery in March 2024. His velocity was down three miles per hour when he returned, and Triple-A hitters teed off for 22 runs in 17 innings last year. Cleveland dropped Stephan from their 40-man roster in August. He made four appearances this spring but was working with even lesser velocity than he had last summer, sitting at just 90.7 mph after throwing 95-96 early during his early-career days as a setup arm. The Guardians haven’t assigned him to a minor league affiliate. This is an easy buyout.
Detroit Tigers
- Drew Anderson: $10MM club option (no buyout)
Detroit brought Anderson back to the organization after a season and a half in Korea. The right-hander was second among KBO pitchers with 245 strikeouts a year ago, partially because he added a “kick-changeup” he hadn’t fully trusted during his last stint in affiliated ball. The Tigers guaranteed him $7MM with a $10MM club option.
The righty was initially expected to compete for a rotation spot. That changed after the Framber Valdez and Justin Verlander signings. Anderson began the season in long relief. It has been an erratic start, as he has allowed 11 runs through his first 15 innings. Anderson has recorded 17 strikeouts but has walked eight batters and surrendered three home runs. Detroit opted to give Keider Montero a rotation spot when Verlander went down with a hip injury.
There’s still a chance for Anderson to make some starts throughout the season. He’ll at least provide some swing-and-miss upside to a bullpen that lacks that element. It’s too early to have a definitive call on the option, but the early showing points toward it being declined.
- Kenley Jansen: $12MM club option ($2MM buyout)
Coming off a quietly excellent season with the Angels, Jansen signed for $11MM with Detroit. He’s making $9MM this season and has a $2MM buyout on a $12MM team option, making it a $10MM call for the front office. That’s a reasonable enough sum that the Tigers would probably exercise it with a typical Jansen year.
The four-time All-Star is 6-8 in save opportunities so far. Seven of his nine appearances have been scoreless. Detroit has taken the loss in the other two — both of which came on go-ahead home runs (to Jose Fernandez and Nathaniel Lowe, respectively). Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris pointed to the still strong swing-and-miss numbers on Jansen’s cutter at the time of the signing. He’s missing bats at the same rate as he did last year and has the second-highest strikeout rate (28.1%) in the Detroit bullpen. If the home runs turn out to a blip, this should get picked up.
Kansas City Royals
- Carlos Estévez, RHP: $13MM club option ($2MM buyout)
The first season of Estévez’s two-year, $22MM free agent deal with Kansas City was a success. He led MLB with 42 saves while matching his career low with a 2.45 ERA across 66 innings. Estévez’s personal-low 20.1% strikeout rate and 8.2% swinging strike mark were red flags, but he entered this spring with a clear hold on the closer role.
Estévez hasn’t looked the same in 2026. His velocity was way down both during Spring Training and in the World Baseball Classic. The Royals expressed some optimism that’d come with more adrenaline during regular season play. It didn’t happen during his debut, as the two-time All-Star’s fastball averaged just 91.2 mph after sitting around 96 a year ago. His slider and changeup also had precipitous drops. Estévez retired just one of seven batters in a meltdown loss to the Braves that culminated in a Dominic Smith walk-off grand slam.
After the game, the Royals placed Estévez on the injured list with a left foot contusion. He sustained that injury during the March 28 appearance against Atlanta, as he took a Michael Harris II comebacker off his foot. That doesn’t explain why the stuff was so poor during camp, though it has given the Royals a month and counting to hopefully get him right.
Coming into the year, the Royals probably anticipated exercising this option. That’s much tougher to see unless they find some kind of mechanical tweak that gets him back into the mid-90s.
Minnesota Twins
- Josh Bell, 1B: $10MM mutual option ($1.25MM buyout)
Minnesota signed Bell to a $7MM free agent guarantee over the winter. That includes a $1.25MM buyout on a $10MM mutual option. Bell’s first month in the Twin Cities has been a microcosm of his last few years. He came out on fire, hitting .317 with three home runs through his first 13 games. He’s hitting .180 with just one extra-base hit (a double) over his past 16 outings. The end result is a league average .235/.331/.373 line through his first 118 plate appearances. Each Bell season has big highs and very tough lows, though they all tend to conclude with slightly above-average offensive production overall.
Bell is a low-end regular at this stage of his career. The Twins — or a potential taker at the trade deadline — are likely to pass on their end of the option. If he does get traded, Minnesota might need to cover a portion of the buyout, as he’d otherwise cost an accruing team nearly $3MM for the final two months of the season.
- Justin Topa, RHP: $5MM mutual option ($250K buyout)
Topa and the Twins built a $5MM mutual option into his agreement to avoid arbitration last November. He has played on salaries just above $1MM throughout his arbitration window. Topa gets ground-balls but has the American League’s lowest swinging strike rate (3.8%) and has battled injuries throughout his career. The Twins are likely to pass on their end.
Joe Ryan’s arbitration deal includes a $13MM mutual option ($100K buyout) for 2027. He’d remain under club control if the option is declined and won’t hit free agency until the 2027-28 offseason.
The Marlins Should Make A Change Behind The Plate
Agustín Ramírez was the worst defensive catcher in the majors last year. The Marlins haven’t yet given up on him but perhaps they should. They have one of the top catching prospects knocking on the door and there’s an open path for them to surge into contention this year.
31 different catchers caught at least 600 innings in 2025. J.T. Realmuto led the way with 1151 1/3, almost double the 605 2/3 caught by Ramírez. Despite catching notably fewer innings than most of the catchers in this sample, Ramírez led the pack with ten errors. He allowed 19 passed balls, which was more than twice as much as the next person on that list, as no one else allowed more than nine. He was also behind the plate for 36 wild pitches, which are technically the fault of pitchers, but a good catcher can occasionally save his teammates from those. Four of those 31 catchers allowed a few more wild pitches but all in larger sample sizes. In short, if Ramírez was catching, the ball was at the backstop a lot.
Those traditional stats aligned with more advanced ones. Ramírez was credited with minus-14 Defensive Runs Saved. Only Salvador Perez, at minus-15, was worse than him in that column. The Fielding Run Value stat at FanGraphs had him last at minus-12. Statcast credited him with minus-13 catching runs, ahead of only Edgar Quero. Baseball Prospectus was less down on him overall, having him merely as one of the 13 worst catchers, but they were the one outlet that didn’t like his framing work.
Presumably, the Marlins have been willing to tolerate this in the hopes that there’s a path to improvement. Ramírez has been a very strong hitter in the minors and could be an asset if his defense got to more passable levels. He put up a combined line of .268/.357/.473 at various rungs of the minors from 2023 to 2025, leading to a 128 wRC+. His 11.5% walk rate and 18.4% strikeout rate were both strong figures and he hit 46 home runs in 1,120 plate appearances.
But his bat hasn’t quite clicked in the majors yet, perhaps due to him focusing so much on trying to improve his defense. Ramírez did hit 21 home runs last year but with a low batting average and poor walk rate, leading to a lopsided line of .231/.287/.413. That resulted in a 91 wRC+, indicating he was nine percent below league average. That’s not bad for a catcher since backstops tend to be about ten points below par, but it’s not great when considering his glovework.
Going into 2026, there was an argument for moving Ramírez to a role as a first baseman and designated hitter. Moving to first would require some work but Ramírez did play the position some in the minors. Though Ron Washington will tell you moving to first is not easy, catching is considered the most rigorous position on the field and playing anywhere else would afford Ramírez more ability to focus on his hitting.
All of that is especially true when considering the presence of Joe Mack, who is one of the top catching prospects in the league. He is considered to be a very strong defender behind the plate. He reached the Triple-A level in 2025, getting into 99 games. His offense is considered more questionable than his defense but he slashed .250/.320/.459 for a 107 wRC+ with the Jumbo Shrimp last year. He was added to the 40-man roster in November to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft.
The Fish could have gone with Mack and bumped Ramírez to first base, a position that was fairly open. They didn’t go that way. They have continued to stick with Liam Hicks and Ramírez as their catching duo, splitting the time almost equally. Ramírez has been behind the plate for 122 innings, compared to 123 for Hicks. Hicks is doing fine, pairing adequate defense with a .314/.354/.523 line in the early going this year, though he’s not great with the running game.
Ramírez, on the other hand, hasn’t shown many signs of improvement. His 122 innings caught this year are about a fifth of last year’s 605 2/3. He already has four errors, almost half the ten he had last year. That’s tied with Quero for the league lead. He has allowed three passed balls, a better pace than last year but not by much. Francisco Alvarez is the only guy with more, at four. Ramírez has been behind the plate for nine wild pitches already, a worse pace than last year. Only Logan O’Hoppe and Drew Millas have allowed more. FanGraphs and Statcast have soured on his framing a bit, though in a very small sample.
The Ramírez/Hicks pairing impacts their pitchers in other ways as well, as neither is great as controlling the running game. The Fish allowed 191 stolen bases last year, easily the most in the majors. The Astros were a distant second on that list with 157. Miami only caught 24 attempted steals on the year. Technically, that was higher than the 23 that the Royals nabbed, but that was because K.C.’s catchers were run on far less, only allowing 47 steals. So far in 2026, the Marlins have allowed 37 steals, again the most in the majors. They’ve only caught three.
Catchers can sometimes provide value in other ways which are difficult to measure, such as working with a pitching staff. Even there, it’s hard to give the Ramírez and Hicks much credit. Starting last year, the Marlins began calling pitches from the dugout. Ramírez and Hicks might still be doing something in terms of communication and providing confidence but it’s fair to say they’re impacting intangibles less than catchers on other teams.
The offense from Ramírez also continues to lag, as he is currently sporting a .235/.303/.367 line and 84 wRC+ this year. It’s a small sample but he’s now up to 694 career plate appearances with a .231/.290/.406 line and 90 wRC+.
Mack, meanwhile, continues to do well in Jacksonville. In his first 83 plate appearances for the Jumbo Shrimp this year, he has three home runs and a huge 19.3% walk rate. Even with a subpar .267 batting average on balls in play, he has a .224/.373/.388 line and 115 wRC+ this year.
Perhaps there are service time considerations at play. Mack is a consensus top 100 prospect in the league. The Fish could have put him on the Opening Day roster and made him eligible to earn the club a bonus draft pick as part of the prospect promotion incentive. They opted not to do that. At this point, they probably are thinking about the flip side of the PPI. Eligible players who are not promoted in the first few weeks of the season can be awarded a full year of service retroactively if they finish in the top two of rookie of the year voting.
If that were to happen, it would be the worst of both worlds for the Marlins, in a sense. They would not get a bonus pick and their window of club control over Mack would be a standard six, as opposed to being juiced to six-plus. From the team’s perspective, you’d ideally not be in that middle spot.
But the downside of keeping Mack down is that the major league club is likely worse off. With prospects, there are no guarantees of immediate success, so it can’t just be assumed that Mack will boost the big league squad. But since a big part of his appeal is his defense, he should be a lock to at least be an upgrade over Ramírez in that regard. On offense, perhaps he would struggle with the promotion, but it’s not as though Ramírez is crushing the ball so far this year.
The Marlins have received a combined .192/.248/.279 line from the DH spot this year, resulting in a 47 wRC+ which places them ahead of just the Pirates and Rockies. Putting Ramírez in there, and having him focus less on catching, could theoretically be good for the lineup.
And turning back to the PPI situation, there’s also some space opening up. Sal Stewart has nine home runs, a .291/.385/.602 line and 1.2 wins above replacement, in the eyes of FanGraphs. JJ Wetherholt is at 1.1 fWAR and Moises Ballesteros at 0.9. On the pitching side, Nolan McLean is at 1.3 fWAR and Rhett Lowder 1.0. It’s theoretically possible for Mack to come up and have a monster finish while some of those other guys struggle, but getting into the top two of voting is going to be tough when those guys already have a decent head-start.
On top of all that, there’s a window for the Marlins to have a special season. On paper, they came into the year as the fourth-best team in the division, in the eyes of most evaluators. But the Phillies and Mets are both out to awful starts. It’s still early, and the Marlins are only four games clear of those two clubs. But since the Mets and Phillies are 9-19 right now, there’s a real chance they can’t climb back into contention and end up selling at the deadline. In that situation, the Marlins would still have to battle the other N.L. clubs for a wild card spot, since it feels like Atlanta will run away with the division, but Miami’s chances feel a bit better than a few weeks ago even if they’re only 13-15.
Even putting aside the early-season standings, which could change in a hurry, this feels like a move the Marlins should make. All signs point to Mack being the long-term answer behind the plate. Ramírez, meanwhile, would seemingly be better served as a bat-first player. Perhaps the Marlins are hoping that another club will take a chance on Ramírez as a catching project, which would allow them to use him in a deadline deal, but it’s hard to envision that when progress isn’t really being made.
Photo courtesy of Mady Mertens, Isaiah J. Downing, Jim Rassol, Imagn Images
Can Chase Dollander Defeat Coors Field?
Rockies right-hander Chase Dollander fired seven scoreless innings to earn a win against the Mets on Sunday. The outing lowered his April ERA to a pristine 1.29. He’s piled up 34 strikeouts over 28 innings this month. Sunday’s outing was the first traditional start of the season for Dollander. He’d pitched exclusively out of the bullpen to begin the year, typically as a bulk reliever following an opener.
Dollander’s win over the Mets came at Citi Field. It was his fifth appearance on the road this season, compared to just two games at Coors Field. The young righty has been able to tame the hitter-friendly venue so far. Dollander allowed a run over 4 1/3 innings at home against the Phillies in his second outing of the season. He limited the Padres to a run across six innings early last week, piling up nine strikeouts. Colorado scored one run total in Dollander’s two home games, saddling him with the loss both times.
The Rockies took Dollander with the ninth overall pick in the 2023 draft. MLB Pipeline ranked him as the No. 2 prospect in the system in 2024, behind only infielder Adael Amador. Dollander struck out minor leaguers at a healthy 33.9% clip that season. The hard-throwing righty debuted with the Rockies last year. The results were brutal in basically every regard. Dollander struggled to miss bats, failed to find the strike zone consistently, and was frequently barreled. His 6.52 ERA was backed by an xFIP and SIERA near 5.00.
Dollander has taken a step forward in multiple areas in his second attempt as a big leaguer. He’s added a tick to his fastball, which was already extremely hard for a starter. Dollander’s four-seamer is sitting at 99 mph this year, ranking fourth among all pitchers. He’s more than doubled his sinker usage, contributing to a well-above-averge 51.9% groundball rate. Despite the increase in sinkers, Dollander has a strong 13.4% swinging-strike rate.
Keeping the ball on the ground while getting ample whiffs is a great recipe for success. Dollander’s 55.7% hard-hit rate stands out as a red flag, but it’s not turning into damage due to the type of batted balls he’s permitting. Only 8.9% of the contact against Dollander has been pulled in the air. Hard-hit balls on the ground and to the opposite way are generally going to lead to better outcomes for a pitcher than pulled air contact.
Colorado brought in Paul DePodesta to run baseball operations this offseason. He’s tasked with reviving a club that hasn’t won 70 games since 2021. The organization is currently in a seven-year playoff drought. DePodesta’s tenure is off to a solid start. The Rockies are just three games under .500 after sweeping the Mets over the weekend. The acquisitions of TJ Rumfield (trade) and Troy Johnston (waiver claim) have been additive, as has the signing of Tomoyuki Sugano. The Johnston addition came shortly before the DePodesta hire was announced, but it’s still part of what looks to have been a productive winter. DePodesta didn’t draft Dollander, of course, but his regime will be in charge of the righty’s development. The decision to initially use Dollander behind an opener, whether it came from manager Warren Schaeffer or the front office, proved fruitful.
Coors Field remains the most difficult place to pitch in the league. Per Statcast, it has a 112 overall Park Factor over the past three seasons, which ranks first by a significant margin. Chase Field is second on the list at 105. Colorado’s stadium ranks first in park effect for runs, OBP, hits, singles, and doubles, which makes sense given the spacious dimensions. The thin air in Denver also limits the effectiveness of breaking balls, forcing pitchers to reconsider their arsenals.
The Rockies have had the occasional pitcher break through with a productive season, despite the difficult home environment. Kyle Freeland finished eighth in ERA with a 2.85 mark in 2018. Jon Gray had a pair of sub-4.00 ERA seasons in the late 2010s. Jorge De La Rosa and Jhoulys Chacin formed a formidable duo in 2013, each posting sub-3.50 ERAs over 30+ starts. ERA is far from the only relevant pitching stat, but it’s a reliable marker for a successful season in a venue that boosts run production like no other.
Ubaldo Jimenez stands out as one of the only starters to have extended success in Colorado. He’s the name that gets whispered whenever a Rockies pitcher brushes up against relevance. The righty entered the rotation on a full-time basis in 2008. He racked up 16.8 WAR (per Baseball Reference) over the next three seasons. The walks were a bit high, but Jimenez limited damage with the help of a diverse arsenal. The 2010 campaign was his masterpiece. Jimenez posted 221 2/3 frames of a 2.88 ERA with nearly a strikeout per inning. He earned an All-Star selection and finished third in NL Cy Young voting. Jimenez had better numbers on the road, but not by much. He held opponents to a .661 OPS and a .294 wOBA in 101 2/3 innings at Coors Field.
Jimenez was the rare pitcher to perform worse after leaving Colorado. He had one good year after getting traded to Cleveland, but didn’t find much success beyond his Rockies tenure. Jimenez did provide what would seem to be a viable blueprint for surviving at Coors Field: above-average velocity, a diverse arsenal, and a pitch mix that isn’t overly reliant on breaking balls. Dollander checks those boxes. He uses a changeup instead of a splitter, but the rest of the repertoire lines up with peak Jimenez. It’s around 60% four-seamer/sinker, 12% changeup, and then a smattering of breaking balls (slider/curveball/sweeper). Dollander has also improved his walk rate to 6.9%. Even in Jimenez’s stellar 2010, he issued free passes at a double-digit clip.
Dollander is just 28 appearances into his big-league career. It’s a seven-game sample of positive results. There’s plenty of season left for him to succumb to the Colorado conditions, which aren’t limited to home games. Rockies players also have to adjust to leaving the Denver altitude for road trips. But the formula is there for Dollander to conquer Coors Field.
Photos courtesy of Wendell Cruz, Denis Poroy, Gary A. Vasquez, Imagn Images
Jack Flaherty’s Difficult Start
The Tigers brought back Jack Flaherty on a two-year, $35 million deal heading into last season after a resurgent 2024 campaign. The veteran righty wasn’t as effective in his second year with the club, but he maintained strong strikeout numbers while matching Tarik Skubal for the team lead in starts. Flaherty’s underlying metrics suggested a bounce-back effort was on the table for 2026, but the results have been concerning so far.
Flaherty was battered for six earned runs over two innings on Saturday against the Reds. He came into the outing having allowed just one home run this year, but Cincinnati took him deep three times. The clunker pushed Flaherty’s ERA to 5.33 across 25 1/3 innings. His xFIP (5.94) and SIERA (5.48) are even higher than that mark. The lone positive from the Cincinnati game was Flaherty’s two walks. It was the first time this year he’d issued fewer than three free passes, though getting yanked after two frames probably helped.
The clear concern for Flaherty is the control. He hasn’t been in the zone often enough to be effective. The 30-year-old right-hander has piled up 22 walks through six starts. He moved past A’s righty Luis Severino for the league lead this weekend. Severino’s 21 walks have come in six more innings. Flaherty has posted career-worst numbers in zone rate (43%), strike rate (56%), and swinging-strike rate (9.2%).
The new ABS challenge system has led to walk rates ticking up around the league, but that doesn’t seem to be the reason for Flaherty’s struggles. His 16.9% called strike rate is right in line with his career norm. Detroit leads the league in correct challenge rate at 84%. The club ranks first in Statcast’s Overturns vs. Expected metric, which tabulates net ABS results by a team using a comparison to similar pitches. Opponents have won 42% of challenges against the Tigers, which is the 12th-lowest mark. Maybe an approach change by Flaherty to adjust to the new system has led to the increase in walks, though his pitch mix and locations look relatively normal.
After stumbling through a 2023 campaign split between the Cardinals and Orioles, Flaherty revived his career with the Tigers in 2024. He delivered a sub-3.00 ERA with a career-best 32% strikeout rate over 18 starts. After bringing in Flaherty on a modest one-year, $14 million agreement, the Tigers were able to cash in at the trade deadline, sending him to the Dodgers for a pair of prospects. Neither Thayron Liranzo nor Trey Sweeney has emerged as an impact contributor for Detroit, but it was still a good bit of business at the time. Flaherty grabbed a World Series ring with the Dodgers, then came back to the Tigers in the offseason.
Flaherty had the opportunity to opt out of his Detroit deal after 2025. He chose to remain with the club for $10MM this season, plus another $10MM earned by making 15 starts last year. It was an unsurprising move, as Flaherty was coming off a middling campaign and was unlikely to make much more on the open market.
Detroit made one of the biggest starting pitcher additions over the winter, adding Framber Valdez on a three-year, $115MM pact. The club is paying Skubal a record $32MM via arbitration. Justin Verlander‘s one-year, $13MM contract won’t break the bank, but it’s another investment on the pitching side that contributed to the club’s $217MM payroll (per RosterResource). With Jackson Jobe, Reese Olson, and Troy Melton on the 60-day IL, the Tigers’ pitching depth has thinned out. Verlander has only made one start this year as he deals with a hip injury.
The rotation has been a strength outside of Flaherty. Skubal’s contributions remain Cy Young-caliber. Valdez has been a steady presence. Casey Mize actually paces the group with a 2.51 ERA. The former No. 1 overall pick is off to one of the best starts of his career. Keider Montero has filled in admirably for the injured Verlander. Getting Flaherty back on track would give the Tigers one of the more formidable rotations in the American League as the club looks to make it three straight trips to the postseason.
Photo courtesy of Aaron Doster, Imagn Images
The White Sox Have Decisions To Make With Munetaka Murakami
Slugger Munetaka Murakami had to settle for a two-year “prove-it” deal with the White Sox this past offseason. It’s still early in the major league career but he is quickly proving it, which means the Sox have to decide on the path forward.
Murakami’s power was never in doubt. His time in Japan had yielded dozens of massive moonshots. The strikeouts were more concerning. He struck out almost 30% of the time in his final NPB seasons. Coming over to North America to face a greater caliber of pitching would probably lead to even more strikeouts. There were particular concerns around his lack of success against high velocity, which he would certainly see more of in MLB.
It’s hard to be a valuable hitter with that many punchouts, though it can be done. In 2025, Mike Trout and James Wood were good hitters despite striking out at least 32% of the time. Ryan McMahon and Oneil Cruz were also in that range and produced below-average results.
Many evaluators thought some team would bite the bullet and invest in Murakami regardless. It’s very rare to have a chance to sign this level of hitter for his age-26 season. There’s risk he could be like Joey Gallo but the upside play is that he resembles Kyle Schwarber. MLBTR predicted he would secure an eight-year deal worth $180MM. Other outlets were not far behind. FanGraphs predicted $154MM over seven years. The Athletic was at $158.5MM over eight years.
Murakami did not get anything close to that. Whether it was due to the strikeouts or his lack of defensive value, teams didn’t want to make a long-term commitment. He signed a two-year, $34MM deal with the White Sox.
We don’t know what other offers Murakami got. Maybe some teams floated three- or four-year arrangements. But from his perspective, if he didn’t get the real long-term offer, going short makes sense. As mentioned, he is still quite young. This deal gives him a chance to spend two years proving himself against big league pitching. He’ll be 26 and 27 in those seasons and will have another chance to seek a long-term deal ahead of his age-28 campaign.
It was thought that maybe there would be an adjustment period for Murakami, but so far he’s doing just fine. The strikeouts are certainly high, as he’s at 32.1% through 109 plate appearances. But he also has ten home runs and a massive 19.3% walk rate. He has a .253/.394/.598 line and a 170 wRC+.
The production is not exactly Schwarber-esque but is pretty close. Schwarber has a 28.5% strikeout rate in his career and hasn’t finished a full season above 31%. He has drawn walks at a 14.2% clip and has been in that range for most of his career. He used to be good for 30ish homers annually but it’s been more like 50ish in recent years. It’s still really early, but Murakami is striking out more often while showing even more power and greater on-base abilities.
Time will tell how it plays out over a larger sample. It’s possible that pitchers find a way to attack him and reduce his effectiveness. Despite the concerns about velocity, he’s doing most of his damage against fastballs. Statcast gives him a .286 batting average and .786 slugging percentage on fastballs, compared to .200 and .400 against breaking pitches and .267 and .467 against offspeed stuff. It’s also possible he continues to get more acclimated to MLB pitching and shaves off some punchouts.
If he continues to be an effective hitter for another few months, it will put the White Sox in an interesting position. It doesn’t feel like Murakami is going to be part of their long-term plans. They are currently rebuilding and aren’t expected to contend this year. The Sox are getting better relative to recent years but are 10-15 and should be on the outside of the playoff race this summer. 2027 could be more viable, but contending next year is no guarantee.
The White Sox could try to sign Murakami to an extension, giving him the nine-figure deal he didn’t get in free agency, but it would be out of character for them to do so. The Sox are one of just two teams, along with the Athletics, who have never given out a nine-figure contract. The largest contract in White Sox franchise history is the five-year, $75MM deal they gave to Andrew Benintendi. If he continues performing anywhere close to this level, he could reasonably ask for twice that much (if not more) on a new long-term deal.
If the Sox are going to break precedent, it should probably be for someone safer, an elite shortstop or center fielder perhaps. A strikeout-prone first baseman is a risky bet, even if it’s someone as exciting as Murakami. If the deal turned into an albatross, it would handcuff the team just as they are looking to put this latest rebuild in the rearview mirror.
This situation would lead to an obvious solution in most cases. If you’re a rebuilding club and you have an attractive player with a short window of club control, you trade him for prospects or other younger players who can contribute to the next competitive window. Trading Murakami this summer would yield a greater trade return than next year. The acquiring club would get Murakami for two playoff races instead of one, which adds to the appeal and the price they would be willing to pay.
But Murakami’s situation is a bit more complex than that. For a team signing a star Japanese player, part of the appeal is on the business side. In addition to whatever Murakami is providing on the field, he is presumably adding to the club’s ratings and merchandise sales in Japan. Given his strong start, he might be adding to those revenue streams on this side of the Pacific Ocean as well.
That could make the calculus more complicated. Trading Murakami this summer would be the best time to maximize his value in terms of a trade return, but it would also surely lead to a reduction in those revenue streams and frustrate the fan base. It’s also possible it could complicate discussions with Japanese free agents in the future, who may not love the prospect of a likely sign-and-trade scenario.
If the Sox decide to hold Murakami, they can keep those revenues flowing for longer. They could then see if contention in 2027 looks more viable. If not, they could still trade him that summer for a notable return, even if it’s less than trading him now. Should they contend and hold him all the way through 2027, they could give him a qualifying offer, which would net them a draft pick if he ends up signing elsewhere. That pick would be nice, but the Sox should be able to get something more attractive via trade. There’s also the risk of Murakami tanking his value by next summer, either due to injury or a decline in production.
It’s an interesting position for the Sox, who are in a transitional phase. In addition to rebuilding, they are on an unusual road to an ownership change. Jerry Reinsdorf has agreed to a succession plan with minority owner Justin Ishbia. For now, Ishbia is investing in the club and has a somewhat open-ended path to majority ownership. From 2029 to 2033, Reinsdorf can decide to finalize the sale of a majority stake to Ishbia. If not within that window, Ishbia gains the right to purchase the majority stake beginning in 2034.
As mentioned, the possibility of a Murakami extension doesn’t seem likely, based on the club’s past spending patterns. While the club is in flux, does that make them even less likely to sign a big deal? It’s also possible the next collective bargaining agreement features some sort of salary floor beginning in 2027, so the Sox may need to spend more money regardless. Perhaps they would want some clarity on that before committing to Murakami or anyone else.
Put it all together and Murakami could be one of the more intriguing players to watch in the coming months. The Sox can make various different choices about how to proceed. They could try to lock him down with a long-term deal but would likely have to shatter their franchise record to do so. A trade this summer would net a big return but would hurt them on the business side. Holding him for a trade in the winter or at next year’s deadline, or even all the way through 2027, could be a better short-term business decision but perhaps worse long-term baseball decision.
Photos courtesy of Ed Szczepanski, Rick Scuteri, Imagn Images