Nolan Arenado’s Arizona Bounce-Back
Nolan Arenado‘s no-trade clause was the most obvious obstacle for the Cardinals in their attempts to trade the third baseman during the last two offseasons, as Arenado (especially during the winter of 2024-25) had a very short list of acceptable landing spots. It didn’t help that Arenado was also owed a substantial amount of money, and St. Louis ended up eating $31MM of the $42MM remaining on the third baseman’s contract once Arenado finally approved a trade to the Diamondbacks last January.
The bigger-picture issue hovering over the situation, however, was simply the fact that Arenado looked like a player in decline. After a superb 2022 season with the Cards that saw Arenado finish third in NL MVP voting, Arenado dropped down to a modest 107 wRC+ in 2023, then a 102 wRC+ in 2024, and then an ugly 84 wRC+. It was just the third time in Arenado’s career that he had delivered below-average offense, with the other two instances being his 2013 rookie season with the Rockies, and the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign.
Apart from an elite strikeout rate, Arenado’s 2025 numbers were pretty ugly across the board. He hit .237/.289/.377 with 12 home runs over 436 plate appearances in what ended up as his final season in St. Louis, and his barrel and hard-hit ball rates each ranked only in the 12th percentile of all hitters. Arenado’s numbers in those two categories were pretty similar in 2024, making it consecutive seasons of diminished power.
On the plus side, Arenado’s third base glovework was still strong, even if down from his Platinum Glove-winning prime years. So in swinging that trade with the Cardinals, the D’Backs could at least count on Arenado for solid defense and a veteran voice in the clubhouse. Even if Arenado’s bat was a question mark, it was a flier the Diamondbacks were willing to take given the modest $11MM price tag ($5MM in 2026, $6MM in 2027) and the fact that Arizona hadn’t been able to land such third base targets as Alex Bregman or Brendan Donovan.
Through two months of the season, Arenado seems to have benefited from the change of scenery. The 35-year-old has turned back to the clock to some extent by hitting .275/.357/.462 with seven home runs over 196 PA, translating to a 130 wRC+. If Arenado can keep this going over a full year, the 130 wRC+ would tie the third-highest mark of his 14-year big league career.
There was some thought that the move to Chase Field might spark Arenado’s bat, and sure enough, he has done more damage in a more hitter-friendly home ballpark. Arenado has a .934 OPS across 94 home PA, as opposed to a .711 OPS in 102 PA away from Phoenix.
His overall .360 wOBA is also notably higher than his .339 xwOBA, so some regression is probably inevitable (though .339 is still comfortably above the league average). Arenado still isn’t making contact with much authority, as his barrel rate is only up to 6.5% from 4% in 2025, and his hard-hit ball rate has actually dropped from 32.6% last year to 31.9% this year. While he is still making plenty of contact, Arenado’s 17.9% strikeout rate is on pace to be the second-highest of his career.
When Arenado has squared the ball, however, he has capitalized. As per Statcast’s launch angle sweet spot metric, Arenado’s number is up to 38.4% this season, putting him in the 81st percentile of all batters. (Comparatively, Arenado’s 31.5 LAS% in 2025 put in the 16th percentile.)
All of this success comes after a very rough opening two weeks to the season, as Arenado started his D’Backs tenure with a .392 OPS over his first 52 plate appearances. It was around this time that Arenado and the hitting coaches made some swing changes, with the third baseman telling Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic that he was including too much head movement and not enough of his back hip while swinging. A new pregame routine was also introduced with the goal of, as Arenado put it, “trying to see shapes and pitches before I step in the box, so when I step in the box, it doesn’t feel like it’s the first time I’m doing it.”
Time will tell if Arenado can keep this going over an extended period of time, though his hot streak has now been going for almost a month and a half. Arenado’s production has basically offset an extended slump from shortstop Geraldo Perdomo, and helped keep the Snakes in a wild-card position and a game behind the Padres for second place in the NL West.
Even if Arenado does start to cool off, the D’Backs don’t need him to be the All-Star of his prime years — they just need him to produce like a $5MM player. Rather than looking like a plan B or C for the Diamondbacks’ third base needs, the Arenado trade is now shaping up as a nice bargain for the Snakes, and one of the cannier moves of the Arizona offseason.
Which Impending Free Agent Bats Are Actually Improving Their Stock?
In case you weren't aware, the upcoming offseason's free agent class is ... well, it's... not exactly the stronge-- ok, it's not good. It's a weak class. Despite being headlined by a two-time Cy Young winner, that was always expected to be the case. The fact that said Cy Young winner, Tarik Skubal, is currently out following surgery to remove loose bodies from his elbow only further dampens the group's overall earning power.
We're due for an update on our Free Agent Power Rankings. That'll likely be published at some point next week. Our power rankings are always based on total earning power rather than individual impact. If you're a 38-year-old ace, you probably won't rank as highly as a 28-year-old regular at third base, because that 28-year-old is going to have access to a much longer (and thus more lucrative overall) contract than said 38-year-old. Sorry Chris Sale, them's the breaks.
That said, it's been a brutal year for most of the names at the top of an already underwhelming free agent class -- pitchers and hitters alike. Skubal, as mentioned, had elbow surgery. He'll be back -- sooner than originally anticipated, by all accounts -- but he's not going to take home a third straight Cy Young Award. Bo Bichette can opt out of his Mets contract ... but he's hitting .225/.273/.317. Trevor Rogers missed time on the injured list and has a nearly 7.00 ERA through nine starts. Jazz Chisholm Jr. has been terrific in May, but that only offsets an awful April. Tatsuya Imai came to MLB with plenty of hype and an opt-out-laden contract that potentially set him up to reenter free agency and cash in on a mega-deal next winter -- at least until he posted a 6.17 ERA through his first six MLB starts.
Any and all of these players have time to turn things around, and while the headline of this particular post is admittedly a bit hyperbolic, it's also true that most of the market's top bats aren't doing much to elevate their case. A big four months would make Chisholm's April a distant memory, but we're not there yet. Daulton Varsho has been better than average at the plate but hasn't shown the same power he did last year. Bichette's start has been dismal. Taylor Ward has followed up his 36-homer 2025 season by hitting two round-trippers through the first third of the 2026 season.
We'll cover a lot of the bigger names on the forthcoming update to our Power Rankings, but here's a look at some bats who probably won't make the list but are nonetheless trending in a positive direction. (Note that I'll be excluding some smaller-sample breakouts/resurgences for this list; Jorge Mateo's .324/.370/.471 slash looks great, but it's 73 plate appearances being propped up by a silly .455 BABIP and combined with a 30% strikeout rate. Let's not get too carried away.)
Brandon Lowe, 2B, Pirates
Pittsburgh's acquisition of Lowe in the three-team trade that sent Mike Burrows to Houston and Jacob Melton to Tampa Bay looks like one of the best moves of the offseason. The 31-year-old (32 in July) is in the midst of arguably the best season of his career. Lowe has belted 14 home runs in only 51 games. His 11.2% walk rate is the second-highest of his career, while his 23.7% strikeout rate is the second-lowest.
Not only are those excellent marks both relative to his career levels and the rest of the league, they both put a halt to some worrying trends. Lowe has always struck out a fair bit, but his 2022 mark of 22.9% looked like it might be a step in the right direction. Instead, it climbed to 27% from 2023-25 and did so while his walk rate plummeted to a career-worst 6.9% last year. Lowe still chases a bit too much, but he's made big gains on his in-zone contact rate and done so without sacrificing much in the way of hard-hit balls.
Durability will be key for Lowe, who played in only 415 of 648 possible games from 2022-25 (64%). However, he's currently on pace to match his career-high 39 home runs, set back in 2021, and he's doing so with the best strikeout-to-walk profile of his career.
If Lowe actually stays healthy and flirts with 40 homers, it's hard to imagine a scenario where he's not in the top 10 on our list. But even if his power output cools down, he's done a nice job improving his stock thus far.
The open market in modern baseball rarely rewards pure second basemen, which is what Lowe is at this point. He's played exactly three innings of outfield since the 2021 season wrapped, and he has all of 155 career innings at first base. It also rarely compensates 32-year-olds on long-term deals. Lowe has an uphill battle based on position and age, but he's still angling for a nice multi-year deal.
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The Fall And Rise Of Jordan Walker
The Cardinals thought they had a future star on their hands during outfielder Jordan Walker‘s first couple of years in the organization. Drafted 21st overall out of high school in 2020, the former third baseman tore through the Single-A, High-A and Double-A levels with a combined .310/.388/.525 line through 2022.
Widely considered one of the game’s five best prospects entering 2023, Walker cracked the Cardinals’ Opening Day roster as a 20-year-old and avoided Triple-A time. That may have been too aggressive on the Cardinals’ part, as Walker’s career has not gone smoothly. However, now in his fourth season in St. Louis, signs are pointing to Walker finally living up to the hype at age 24.
With Nolan Arenado entrenched as the Cardinals’ third baseman three years ago, they shifted Walker to right field. He got the lion’s share of playing time there during the initial few weeks of his rookie campaign and turned heads during a career-opening 12-game hitting streak. Although Walker batted a respectable .279/.329/.412 with two home runs in his first 20 games in the bigs, it was discouraging that he drew just three walks against 20 strikeouts. With Walker also struggling to adjust to a different position, the Cardinals sent him to Triple-A Memphis for the first time in late April.
Walker mustered a subpar .239/.349/.398 line in 135 plate appearances during what amounted to a 29-game trip to Memphis, but his walk, strikeout and ground-ball rates all trended in the right direction. The Cardinals saw enough progress to summon the 6-foot-6, 250-pounder back to the majors at the beginning of June. He held his own from then on and finished a 117-game, 465-plate appearance first season in St. Louis with a strong .277/.346/.455 line (116 wRC+), 16 homers, and walk (8.0%) and strikeout (22.4%) rates that hovered around league average. He drew negative marks in right (minus-7 Defensive Runs Saved, minus-7 Outs Above Average, minus-6 Fielding Run Value), but that didn’t come as a surprise for a young player transitioning to a new spot.
The Cardinals and Walker likely went into his second season with the expectation they would never again send him to the minors for performance-based reasons. It didn’t work out that way. Walker’s offensive production plummeted in 2024, during which the Cardinals optioned him twice, and didn’t recover last year. He played in exactly 162 major league games from 2024-25 and hit a dreadful .211/.270/.324 with 11 homers, a 30.7% strikeout rate and a 6.8% walk rate over 574 plate appearances. Among 291 hitters who amassed at least 550 trips to the plate during that two-year span, Walker ranked last in fWAR (minus-1.9) and seventh from the bottom in wRC+ (68). He didn’t make up for it in the field, where he continued to receive poor grades (minus-15 DRS, minus-12 FRV, minus-8 OAA).
Last September, a few weeks before a miserable year for Walker and the Cardinals ended, hitting coach Brant Brown and manager Oliver Marmol asked for more from the former prized prospect. Brown said Walker would “have to devote more focus on preparation.” Meanwhile, Marmol called for “a sense of urgency” from Walker, though he made sure to note, “I’m nowhere close to giving up on Jordan Walker.”
John Mozeliak, who drafted Walker, stepped down as the Cardinals’ president of baseball operations after last season. Former Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom then assumed the reins in St. Louis. Bloom has been a member of the Cardinals’ front office since 2024, meaning he witnessed Walker’s severe two-year slump firsthand. But Bloom, like Marmol, was not ready to wave the white flag on Walker coming into this season.
When Bill Ladson of MLB.com asked Bloom about Walker’s woes in March, the executive answered: “We all know that ultimately this is a results business, but we get to the results by having a great process. Jordan’s process this offseason is as good as I’ve seen since I’ve been in this organization.”
Bloom added he had “a lot of optimism” about Walker turning his career around, though it looked like more of the same in spring training. Walker took 47 trips to the plate in 14 exhibition games and batted a meek .205/.255/.273 with one homer, 16 strikeouts and three walks. He nonetheless entered 2026 as the Cardinals’ starting right fielder. If you were expecting another rough season from Walker, odds are you had plenty of company. But roughly a third of the way through, Walker has been a revelation. His performance has been a key factor in a surprising 29-23 start for the Cardinals, who hold a wild-card spot as June nears. FanGraphs gave the Cardinals a measly 8.5% chance to make the playoffs before the season began in late March. Now at 27.6%, those odds have more than tripled two months later.
The Cardinals’ offense has gotten significant contributions from stud rookie second baseman JJ Wetherholt, DH/catcher Iván Herrera and first baseman Alec Burleson, but Walker has easily been their greatest threat. Across 51 games and 218 plate appearances, Walker has slashed .297/.367/.585 with improved strikeout and walk percentages of 25.7 and 9.2, respectively. He sits fourth in the majors in wRC+ (168), seventh in ISO (.287), tied for seventh in HRs (15) and tied for 14th in fWAR (2.2). Same-handed pitchers were especially tough on the righty-swinging Walker from 2024-25, but he has put up a matching 168 wRC+ against them and lefties this year. While inconsistency was another glaring problem for Walker in previous years, there have been no drawn-out slumps so far. The season is 62 days old, and Walker’s OPS has been .900-plus for 57 of them.
Diving deeper, this looks more like a true breakout than a fluke. Over his first three seasons, Walker paired a 47.9% ground-ball rate with a 37.5% fly ball percentage. That prevented him from tapping into his power potential and taking advantage of his elite bat speed. He is now hitting grounders at a 39.3% clip and fly balls 44.3% of the time. That bodes well for someone whose bat speed ranks in the 100th percentile. He boasted 99th percentile bat speed last year, but that was one of the few red marks on a Baseball Savant page that featured far too much blue. It is draped in red this year, as Walker is also close to the top of the league in expected batting average (81st percentile), expected weighted on-base average (90th) and expected slugging percentage (93rd). Those are just a few Statcast categories that support his offensive explosion.
If you’re looking for a potential cause of negative regression, it is easy to point to Walker’s .344 batting average on balls in play. He’s a fast runner whose sprint speed falls into the 92nd percentile, but fewer than 10 players typically sustain that high of a BABIP in a given season. Even if that comes down, it may not be a drastic fall for a player who came into 2026 with an above-average lifetime BABIP of .310 (the league mean is .286). Less BABIP luck would damage Walker’s .412 wOBA, which is fifth-best in the game, but his .383 xwOBA isn’t indicative of someone whose numbers are going to careen off a cliff.
Turning to the defensive side, Walker has started 49 of the Cardinals’ 52 games in right field. The reviews have been mixed, which is a step up from the across-the-board negatives he earned in prior seasons. Walker has been worth 6 DRS, which is tied for sixth among outfielders. His 99th percentile arm strength was on full display when he threw out the Brewers’ Christian Yelich on a play at the plate on Memorial Day. That was one of Walker’s league-high five outfield assists. Despite the positive developments, OAA and FRV (minus-2 apiece) remain bearish on his work in the grass.
While Walker’s defensive metrics vary, there is no debating that he has been among the fiercest sluggers in the game two months into 2026. As the six-year anniversary of the 2020 draft approaches, it looks as if Walker has finally blossomed into a cornerstone player for the Cardinals. He is due to make his first of three potential trips through arbitration over the winter, but Walker may soon emerge as a priority extension candidate for Bloom if he continues terrorizing opposing pitchers.
Willson Contreras Is Thriving For The Red Sox
The 2025-26 offseason didn’t have a defining blockbuster like the Kyle Tucker trade in 2024-25 or the Juan Soto deal the winter before. However, what the trade market lacked in top-end quality, it made up for in quantity, with no shortage of big names switching teams. The Cardinals were arguably the top sellers, dealing away Nolan Arenado, Brendan Donovan, Sonny Gray, and Willson Contreras, while the Red Sox were one of the most active buyers, picking up Gray and Contreras, along with Caleb Durbin and Johan Oviedo. It’s still too early to crown any winners of the offseason’s trades, but so far, Contreras is looking like one of the best pickups of the winter. Things aren’t going so well for the Red Sox right now, but adding the slugging first baseman is looking like one thing they definitely did right.
Through 50 games, Contreras is hitting .281 with 11 home runs and 33 RBI. His .899 OPS, .393 wOBA, and 148 wRC+ all put him among the AL’s top 10 qualified hitters. His .397 expected wOBA ranks fifth, trailing only Yordan Alvarez, Aaron Judge, Mike Trout, and Ben Rice. For what it’s worth, his glove has also looked sharper in his sophomore season at first base. In 2025, he finished with -1 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and a +4 Fielding Run Value (FRV). This year, he has a +3 DRS and a +4 FRV in less than half as many innings. The result of it all is 2.0 Wins Above Replacement, according to both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference. That’s All-Star-caliber production, although fellow first basemen Rice, Nick Kurtz, and Munetaka Murakami will give Contreras tough competition when it comes to making this summer’s AL All-Star squad.
All-Star or not, there is no overstating how important Contreras has been to an otherwise floundering Red Sox offense. He leads the team in home runs, RBI, Win Probability Added, OPS, wRC+, and fWAR. Red Sox Nation held its collective breath earlier this month when Nick Martinez hit Contreras on the hand with a fastball, forcing him out of the game. Luckily, Contreras avoided any sort of serious injury. On the contrary, he’s hit .349 with a 1.061 OPS and a 190 wRC+ in 11 games since. It’s safe to say his hand is feeling just fine.
Contreras has never played more than 138 games in a season or taken more than 563 trips to the plate. That’s partly because he used to be a catcher and partly because he found himself on the injured list 10 times in the first 10 years of his career. This year, he and the Red Sox are hoping he can avoid the IL entirely for the first time in a full season since 2018. If he can, he’s on track to blow past his previous career-highs in almost every counting stat category, including home runs, runs scored, and RBI. Of course, the rate stats are impressive too; his OPS, wRC+, and xwOBA would also be the best of his career. If Contreras keeps going at this pace, he’ll finish with just over 6.0 Wins Above Replacement, according to both the FanGraphs and Baseball Reference models. That would be far and away the highest total of his big league tenure.
Most players never have the privilege to say they were at their best in their mid-thirties. Indeed, in the last decade, only three position players have had a six-win season at age 34 or older, whether by fWAR or bWAR: Paul Goldschmidt in 2022, Brandon Crawford in 2021, and Adrian Beltré in 2016. Meanwhile, Crawford is the only hitter in the 21st century to have his first six-win season at age 34 or older. Contreras is hoping to join him.
Admittedly, it’s dangerous to extrapolate 50 games’ worth of production over a full season. Contreras has played at a six-win pace over his last 50 games, but the 10 seasons and 1,000-plus games he played before this year are probably more representative of his true talent. Besides, the aging curve tells us he’s much more likely to be worse at age 34 than he is to be better than ever. Yet, it’s more fun to be optimistic, and there are some pretty compelling reasons to believe Contreras can keep this up.
For one thing, he isn’t catching anymore. Hopefully, that should help him remain stronger and healthier throughout the rest of the season. The underlying offensive data is also incredibly promising. Over the first nine years of his career, Contreras had a pull-air rate of 13.3% (per Statcast). Then, in 2025, he increased his pull-air rate to nearly 20%. It was the first time in his career that he hit balls in the air to his pull side at a better-than-average rate. This season, his pull-air rate is up again. Just over a quarter of all his balls in play have been pulled in the air.
Here’s why that matters. The league-average wOBA on balls in play typically hovers around .360 to .370. When those balls in play are pulled in the air, that wOBA rises to the .730 to .740 range. What’s more, Contreras has always been particularly successful with this type of contact. His .874 career wOBA on pulled balls in the air puts him in the league’s 92nd percentile. The majority of hitters will succeed when they pull the ball in the air consistently, and Contreras can benefit more than most. His excellent numbers so far in 2026 are the proof.
What makes this development even more encouraging for Contreras is that his swing speed is still elite. Generally speaking, bat speed starts to decline precipitously when a player reaches his thirties. Those older hitters sometimes increase their pull rate, which temporarily helps to cover for their declining strength. That’s not what’s going on for Contreras, at least not in any significant way. His average bat speed on non-pulled contact is down a bit, though it’s still well above league average. Meanwhile, his bat speed on pulled contract is slightly higher than it was through May of last year (or the year before). Because he’s pulling more of his contact overall, his average swing speed is right in line with where it’s been the last two years. Out of 218 qualified swingers, only 14 have a higher average swing speed than Contreras. He may be 34, but he’s swinging like a much younger man.
Simply put, there’s no question Contreras has earned his success to date. He may not keep hitting at quite this level over the next four months, but he’s already given himself a strong head start. As long as he stays healthy, there’s a very good chance this ends up as the best season of an already highly successful career.
Images courtesy of Bob DeChiara and Jeff Curry, Imagn Images.
The Guardians’ Faith In Their Own Players Is Paying Off
The Guardians had a very disappointing offseason. Despite winning the American League Central in two straight years and three of the past four, they did almost nothing to upgrade their roster for 2027. They made no trades of significance and spent less than $12MM in free agency.
Even that very modest outlay was offset by savings elsewhere. Emmanuel Clase was supposed to make $6MM this year but he probably won’t see any of that due to his ongoing gambling investigation. José Ramírez signed an extension that technically increased his 2026 salary from $21MM to $26MM but the new deal defers $10MM annually, so it actually saved the club money in the short term.
After MLBTR published its Offseason In Review entry for the Guards, readers mostly panned the club’s actions. In the poll at the bottom of the post, both the F and D options got 37% of the vote. C was next with 19%. The B option got just a 5% share, followed by A at 2%.
But almost two months into the season, they are thriving. They are currently 30-22, one of the few American League clubs comfortably above .500. They are 3.5 games clear of the White Sox and six up on the Twins. Coming into the season, the Tigers were considered by many to be the division favorite, but they are 9.5 back.
How are the Guards doing it? The pitching staff is quite good, which isn’t really a surprise, since they were strong in that department last year. But they have taken a big step forward offensively. The team has a collective .230/.324/.377 line and 101 wRC+. That may not sound too impressive, being just barely above average, but consider where they were last year. The 2025 Guards hit .226/.296/.373 for a wRC+ of 87. They were successful in spite of that lack of offense thanks to their pitching and defense. Cranking up the offense, even just to be middle of the pack, is a notable improvement.
Since they made almost no effort to add external options, the gains are clearly coming from inside the house. Some of this was to be expected. Chase DeLauter and Travis Bazzana came into the season ranked among the club’s top prospects and both are contributing, but the Guards are also getting improved results from guys who have already been on the team for years, as each of Brayan Rocchio, Angel Martínez and Daniel Schneemann have boosted their numbers this season.
Rocchio came into this season seemingly on the fringe of the roster. By the end of 2025, he had 911 career plate appearances. He had just 13 home runs, a .222/.293/.327 line and 77 wRC+. He had exhausted his final option season. On paper, he and Gabriel Arias had the middle infield jobs but Bazzana was on the way, along with Juan Brito and Angel Genao. There was a non-zero chance of him getting pushed off the roster.
But instead, he’s been taking a step forward. The Guards somewhat surprisingly started the year with Bazzana in the minors and Rocchio at second base. Arias hit the IL in April, leaving Rocchio in charge of the shortstop job. Rocchio has stepped to the plate 188 times and has a .290/.376/.420 line, leading to a 130 wRC+. A lot of that is due to plate discipline. He came into the year with a 7.7% walk rate and 21.3% strikeout rate in his career. Those numbers are at 10.1% and 10.6% this year.
His contact hasn’t made huge strides. In fact, his hard hit rate and exit velocity are actually down relative to last year. What seems to be working for him is some extra patience. His swing rate is down 3.4 percentage points. Perhaps more importantly, his first pitch swing rate is down by 11.5 points. That has led to more walks and fewer strikeouts.
There is a bit of luck at play, as he has a .309 batting average on balls in play. Since he is striking out so rarely, that means lots of balls in play and the luck is really helping him. Perhaps there is some regression coming but Rocchio has already racked up 1.7 wins above replacement in the eyes of FanGraphs, with his solid shortstop defense and nine stolen bases also helping.
Martínez was sent to the plate 653 times over the 2024 and 2025 seasons. He had a tepid .226/.277/.353 line and 77 wRC+ in those, hitting 14 home runs. His 21.9% strikeout rate was around average but his 5.8% walk rate was quite low. He wasn’t guaranteed playing time in 2026, as Cleveland came into the year with an outfield mix consisting of DeLauter, Schneeman, Steven Kwan, George Valera, CJ Kayfus, David Fry and Petey Halpin.
But some struggles from the guys in that group have opened time for Martínez that he has taken advantage of. Unlike Rocchio, there are no big improvements here in terms of discipline. His 19.4% strikeout rate is a bit better but he’s also walking less, with just a 3.4% rate this year. But he already has nine home runs, almost matching his previous career tally, in just 175 plate appearances. That has helped him hit .256/.298/.488 for a 119 wRC+.
Also unlike Rocchio, there are some tangible shifts in the Statcast data. His 36.2% hard hit rate is only around league average but a big jump from the 29.3% rate he had last year. His 88.6 mph average exit velocity is exactly league par but a mile and a half better than his own mark from last year. His 41st percentile bat speed isn’t too impressive but he was in the 21st percentile last year. Making those kinds of gains can sometimes come with more whiffs but, as mentioned, he is actually striking out less.
He also may have found a defensive home in the outfield, depending on who you ask. Martínez was bounced between second base, third base and the grass in 2024 and 2025. His outfield results were poor, as he was given minus-9 Defensive Runs Saved and minus-5 Outs Above Average. DRS is still not convinced this year, giving him a minus-3 grade. Since that’s in roughly one third as many innings, it’s roughly the same pace as last year. But he has been credited with 3 OAA on the year. He has also stolen eight bases, already matching last year’s total. He’s been credited with 1.2 fWAR on the year.
Schneemann spent 2024 and 2025 in a utility role, playing everywhere except first base and the battery. He hit .210/.290/.358 for a wRC+ of 84 in 643 plate appearances. He has been sent to the plate 150 times this year with a .246/.327/.403 line and 109 wRC+.
It’s possible that Schneemann’s improvements are more fluky than those of Rocchio or Martínez. While Rocchio is showing an improved approach and Martínez is hitting the ball with more authority, Schneemann’s gains look to be based on luck, as he has a .333 BABIP so far. HIs 10.7% walk rate is nice but only a slight gain on the 9.8% pace he had coming into the year. His 28.7% strikeout rate is high and only a marginal improvement over the 29.1% rate he had in previous seasons.
In terms of the Statcast data, his hard hit rate and average exit velocity are actually down relative to last year. If there’s one big bright spot, it’s that Statcast has his launch angle sweet spot percentage in the 97th percentile, whereas he was in the 23rd percentile last year. The regression may already be setting in, as Schneemann is hitting .143 in May after batting .321/.391/.564 through the end of April. Even if it was just one big month, some solid offensive results have combined with his speed and defense to give him a tally of 1.0 fWAR on the season.
These three guys aren’t going to get any MVP votes but their contributions are significant in the larger context. As mentioned, the Guards did almost nothing to add outside help. There are seven players on the team who have received at least 150 plate appearances this year. Ramírez is doing his usual thing. DeLauter is having a strong rookie season. But Kwan and Kyle Manzardo are struggling so far. Rocchio, Martínez and Schneemann have stepped up. Those three have a combined .265/.335/.439 line, 120 wRC+ and 3.9 fWAR on the year so far.
Time will tell if they can keep it going but those strong starts have already pushed the Guards out to a nice division lead. If the gains do prove to be sustainable, then it could lead to some interesting decisions down the line.
Bazzana was called up at the end of April and has taken over the second base job, having hit .288/.409/.384 for a 133 wRC+ in the early going. The Guards also have one of the league’s top infield prospects in Genao. He was promoted to Triple-A earlier this month and has put up a .305/.359/.576 line at that level so far. A promotion is arguably already viable and his knocks on the door should get louder every day. His defense is still a work in progress but evaluators expect him to be a viable big league shortstop as he refines his tools.
The Guardians have historically not been shy about trading from their middle infield. Francisco Lindor was their regular shortstop for most of the 2015 to 2020 period before getting flipped to the Mets. Amed Rosario and Andrés Giménez came back in that trade and were fixtures of the middle infield for the next few years. Giménez even got a nine-figure extension. But both were eventually traded, Rosario to the Dodgers and Giménez to the Blue Jays. With Bazzana, Genao, Rocchio, Arias, Schneemann and Brito all now in the middle infield mix, maybe they can make someone in that group available to address another part of the roster.
In the outfield, it’s probably just nice that things are going relatively well out there, as Cleveland has been struggling for years to get production from the grass. Their outfielders hit a collective .225/.288/.341 last year for a 77 wRC+, putting them ahead of only the Royals. This year, they are up to the middle of the pack with a .232/.316/.384 line, thanks to Martínez and DeLauter.
Perhaps the Guards will have to move on from Kwan at some point. He is under club control through 2027. He’s making $7.725MM this year and would be due an arbitration raise going into next year. But his offense slipped to league average last year and he’s down to .202/.330/.260 in 2026, so perhaps a non-tender or a trade are becoming possibilities. Even without Kwan, they have DeLauter, Martínez, Valera, Schneemann, Fry, Halpin, Kayfus, Brito and Kahlil Watson in the mix and controllable for years to come.
Photos courtesy of Brett Davis, Rick Osentoski, Ken Blaze, David Richard, Imagn Images
2026-27 Club Options: NL Central
In recent weeks, MLBTR has looked forward to next winter’s option classes. We’ll move now to the NL Central, where the Cubs have a number of low-cost options to weigh.
Previous: AL East, AL Central, AL West, NL East
Chicago Cubs
- Matthew Boyd, LHP: $15MM mutual option ($2MM buyout)
Mutual options are essentially never exercised, so Boyd will be paid the $2MM buyout and return to free agency next winter. That’ll conclude a two-year, $29MM free agent deal that worked out well. Boyd’s 3.21 ERA over 31 starts a year ago essentially paid for the contract on its own.
The second season isn’t going as planned. Boyd missed a couple weeks in April with a biceps strain and suffered a more significant meniscus injury in his left knee earlier this month. He underwent surgery that’ll keep him out into late June at the earliest. The Cubs probably aren’t keen on their end of the option.
- Hunter Harvey, RHP: $8MM mutual option ($1MM buyout)
Chicago added Harvey on a one-year, $6MM deal in December. The talented but oft-injured reliever only pitched four times before landing on the injured list with triceps inflammation. Further testing this month revealed a stress reaction that’ll keep him down for a while. This will be an easy pass for the team.
- Carson Kelly, C: $7.5MM mutual option ($1.5MM buyout)
Kelly has outperformed his two-year, $11.5MM deal signed in December 2024. Initially brought in as a veteran complement to Miguel Amaya, the 31-year-old Kelly has earned the majority of the playing time. He’s a .261/.344/.421 hitter with 19 homers over his season-plus in Chicago. He’s fourth among primary catchers this season with a .381 on-base percentage. Kelly has a strong case for another two-year contract at a better annual rate than the option price, so his camp should have an easy time passing.
- Colin Rea, RHP: $7.5MM club option ($1MM buyout)
Rea, a 35-year-old swingman, is in the second season of his second stint with the Cubs. He’s clearly a favorite of skipper Craig Counsell, who also managed him in Milwaukee in 2021 and ’23. Rea pitched pretty well last season, managing a sub-4.00 ERA while starting 27 of 32 games. The Cubs had a $6MM team option for 2026, but the sides agreed to a restructured extension that guaranteed Rea $6.5MM in exchange for the righty tacking on a similarly priced club option for 2027.
Injuries again quickly pushed Rea from long relief into a back-end rotation spot. He hasn’t performed as well as he did last season, allowing nearly five earned per nine across 47 frames. Rea had consecutive quality starts against the Phillies in mid-April but has surrendered a 7.04 ERA over his past five times out.
Rea’s strikeout, walk and home run rates are all virtually identical to last season’s. There haven’t been any meaningful changes to his pitch mix or velocity. He’s essentially the same pitcher, with this year’s ERA spike mostly due to a higher average on balls in play. That’s always a risk for a pitcher like Rea who pounds the strike zone but doesn’t have overpowering stuff.
The Cubs will presumably look for a rotation upgrade or two in July that can push him back into a relief role. A buyout seems likelier than them picking up the option, though it wouldn’t be a surprise if they try to bring him back a slightly lower price given his flexibility in usage.
- Caleb Thielbar, LHP: $6MM mutual option ($500K buyout)
Chicago brought back Thilebar on a $4.5MM deal after he worked 58 innings of 2.64 ERA ball in 2025. The southpaw is making $4MM this year and will earn a $500K buyout at season’s end. He missed just under a month with a left hamstring strain and has been limited to 12 appearances. Thilebar has recorded 11 punchouts while allowing four runs (three earned) across 9 2/3 innings. The Cubs will probably pass on their end but could have interest in keeping Thielbar around for his age-40 season at slightly less money.
- Jacob Webb, RHP: $2.5MM club option (no buyout)
The Rangers surprisingly non-tendered Webb after he turned in 66 innings with an even 3.00 earned run average. Chicago signed him to a $1.5MM free agent deal that includes a $2.5MM team option for 2027. The righty has been a nice addition to Counsell’s middle relief corps, striking out a quarter of opponents with a 3.05 ERA over 20 2/3 innings. He’s getting swinging strikes and chases off the plate at career-best rates.
Webb has allowed right around three earned runs per nine in three straight seasons. His market has never really materialized, but a $2.5MM option is cheap enough that the Cubs would very likely bring him back if he keeps this pace all year.
The Cubs hold a $3.3MM club option on RHP Javier Assad. He’ll remain eligible for arbitration through at least 2028 even if the option is declined.
Cincinnati Reds
- Pierce Johnson, RHP: $8MM mutual option ($1.5MM buyout)
Cincinnati picked up Johnson on a one-year, $6.5MM deal after the Braves bought him out. The veteran righty has allowed eight runs over 19 1/3 innings with league average strikeout and walk numbers. His 9.3% swinging strike rate is a career low. Johnson is an MLB-caliber arm but more of a middle reliever than a setup man at age 35. An $8MM option price is too rich on the Reds’ end.
- Eugenio Suárez, DH/3B: $16MM mutual option
Cincinnati brought Suárez back on a one-year, $15MM deal late in the winter. It looked like a nice bargain pickup for a team that needed offense. Suárez’s age evidently tamped down long-term interest, but he hit 49 home runs a year ago. The return has started slowly, as he hit .231/.300/.363 through 100 plate appearances before sustaining a left oblique strain that sent him to the injured list. He began a rehab assignment with Triple-A Louisville yesterday.
The Reds will also pay a $3MM buyout to released infielder Jeimer Candelario.
Milwaukee Brewers
- Luis Rengifo, 3B: $10MM mutual option ($1.5MM buyout)
Milwaukee bought low on Rengifo with a $3.5MM deal in Spring Training. He’s making a $2MM salary and due a $1.5MM buyout on a $10MM mutual option. They haven’t gotten anything close to the desired bounce back. The switch-hitting utilityman carries a .199/.262/.257 line without a home run over 150 plate appearances. Third base feels like a priority for the Brewers at the deadline, at which point they could move on from Rengifo entirely.
- Gary Sánchez, C: Mutual option
The terms of Sánchez’s mutual option were never reported. He signed a $1.75MM guarantee to return to Milwaukee as a backup catcher/part-time DH. Although Sánchez is only hitting .198, he has walked 20 times and hit five home runs in 108 plate appearances. The Brewers will eventually want a look at prospect Jeferson Quero, but William Contreras will be an offseason trade candidate with free agency looming after 2027. They could look to keep Sánchez around as a cheap #2 catcher.
Milwaukee holds a $14.5MM club option on C William Contreras for his final season of arbitration. He’ll remain under team control if Milwaukee declines.
Pittsburgh Pirates
- Marcell Ozuna, DH: $16MM mutual option ($1.5MM buyout)
Pittsburgh added Ozuna late in the offseason on a $12MM deal. It didn’t make much sense at the time since it locked all of Ryan O’Hearn, Brandon Lowe and Spencer Horwitz into defensive spots without a fallback at designated hitter. Ozuna was also coming off a mediocre second half and playing in one of the toughest home parks for right-handed power.
Ozuna had an atrocious April. He’s at least drawing a lot of walks in May, but his season .179/.275/.305 line isn’t cutting it. It goes without saying that the Pirates aren’t exercising a $16MM option. The bigger question is whether they’ll keep Ozuna on the roster all year.
St. Louis Cardinals
- Dustin May, RHP: $20MM mutual option ($500K buyout)
May commanded a surprisingly strong $12.5MM guarantee despite coming off a 4.96 ERA season between the Dodgers and Red Sox. He’s making a $12MM salary and will collect a $500K buyout on the $20MM mutual option at season’s end. May has stayed healthy and taken all nine turns through the rotation, but he’ll take a 4.81 ERA into today’s start against the Pirates. His strikeout and whiff rates are well below average despite his 97 mph fastball. While May’s power stuff and early-career success have continued to intrigue teams, the recent performance has been that of a fifth starter. The Cardinals aren’t signing up for a $20MM option.
- Ryne Stanek, RHP: $6MM club option (no buyout)
St. Louis added the hard-throwing Stanek on a $3.5MM deal in January. They wanted an experienced leverage arm who could compete for the closing role and potentially be a midseason trade asset. Riley O’Brien seized the ninth inning, leaving Stanek alongside JoJo Romero and George Soriano in the setup group.
Stanek continues to sit around 98 mph and generate above-average strikeout and whiff rates. His already problematic control has pushed even further, though, and he’s walking nearly 18% of opposing hitters. It’s the third-highest mark among pitchers with at least 20 innings. The free passes have resulted in a 6.30 ERA over 23 appearances. Teams are inclined to bet on pitchers with this kind of stuff, but Stanek will need a better second half to convince the Cardinals (or a potential midseason trade partner) to bring him back for $6MM.
- Ramón Urías, 3B: $4MM mutual option ($500K buyout)
St. Louis added Urías on a $2MM free agent deal during Spring Training. He’s making $1.5MM in salary and will be paid a $500K buyout. Urías limped to a .158/.279/.316 start over 25 games before landing on the injured list with tennis elbow.
How Should The Astros Handle Their Infield This Summer?
In the offseason, there was a lot of talk about the Astros having a crowded infield. On paper, they had Christian Walker at first base, Jose Altuve at second, Jeremy Peña at short and Carlos Correa at third. With Yordan Alvarez set to be in the designated hitter spot most days, that didn’t leave a clear opening for Isaac Paredes, who would have to bounce around and cover other spots whenever someone was taking an occasional off-day.
The season quickly demonstrated that so-called surpluses can dry up quickly. A hamstring strain sent Peña to the injured list in mid-April, which allowed Correa to become the shortstop and Paredes the regular third baseman. Peña was nearing a rehab assignment a few weeks later when Correa suffered an ankle injury that required a season-ending surgery. The club used glove-first journeymen Nick Allen and Braden Shewmake to cover short until Peña got back. Once Peña was ready to be activated, Altuve hit the IL.
All of these players are still under club control for the 2027 season. The Astros could hang onto all of them. It would mean starting another season with a mildly clunky roster fit, but something would likely come along to again break up the logjam.
Regardless, the Astros might look at this summer as an opportunity to free things up a bit. Due to a mounting pile of injuries, they’re out to an awful 20-31 start. Only the Rockies and Angels have a worse record. Due to almost the entire American League underperforming so far, Houston is technically only five games back of a playoff spot, but climbing back in the race is going to be a challenge when so many of their key performers are injured or struggling.
With the league so wide open, some wacky things could happen in the coming months, but it seems like there’s a decent chance the Astros will be in seller position this summer. That would be an unfamiliar position for them, as they’ve been consistently competitive for over a decade now. They narrowly finished outside the playoff picture last year, their first miss since 2016. They haven’t finished below .500 since 2014.
Trading an infielder would mean going into 2027 with less depth than they have this year, but they may want to think about it anyway. In the past few offseasons, they have been working with limited payroll flexibility, due to owner Jim Crane’s desire to avoid the competitive balance tax. In the most recent offseason, they needed pitching and had to get creative, taking gambles on unproven arms like Tatsuya Imai, Ryan Weiss and Mike Burrows. For the most part, those bets haven’t paid off and contributed to the Astros’ current predicament. The outfield has also been a bit of an issue since they traded Kyle Tucker — another move that was motivated by financial concerns.
Moving someone from the dirt could perhaps be a way to address those parts of the roster, or at least free up some payroll space so that there’s more maneuverability this coming winter. Due to their recent string of winning, and penalties related to the sign-stealing scandal, their farm system is also considered one of the worst in the league. If they are suddenly sellers, it could be a chance to do some restocking. There are different ways they could approach things, with pros and cons to each.
Altuve and Correa aren’t worth considering. They are older veterans with big contracts, both currently on the IL. Even if they had trade value, they both have the ability to veto trades. Making Peña available is one route they could go. The 2027 season will be his final arbitration year before he hits free agency. The odds of him signing an extension are low.
For one thing, Peña is represented by the Boras Corporation. It’s not true that Boras never lets his clients sign extensions. For instance, Altuve is a Boras client who has signed multiple extensions with the Astros. But Houston has never topped $160MM on a contract, for Altuve or anyone else. Peña could be trending towards beating that, as many strong shortstops have done in recent years. Marcus Semien, Dansby Swanson, Willy Adames, Correa, Xander Bogaerts, Trea Turner and Corey Seager have all signed deals in recent years worth more than anything the Astros have ever given out.
It puts Peña in a somewhat analogous position to where Tucker was a few years back. Tucker was a homegrown star but was nearing free agency and wasn’t going to be signed, so the Astros flipped him while they still had a year of control left. Peña’s window of control will be barely over a year when this summer’s deadline rolls around. Trading Tucker allowed the Astros to get Paredes, Cam Smith and Hayden Wesneski from the Cubs. Peña could fetch a similar haul or perhaps even a better one. His offense hasn’t been as consistently strong as Tucker’s but his speed and shortstop defense make up a good chunk of the difference.
The downside is that Peña is going to be harder to replace, since he is a shortstop and Tucker is a corner outfielder. Technically, the Astros could trade Peña and move Correa over to short but that’s probably not wise. Correa has become increasingly injury-prone in recent years and will be coming off his aforementioned ankle surgery.
There also aren’t amazing options for trading Peña and then finding an external replacement. The best shortstop free agents of the 2026-27 class would be J.P. Crawford or Ha-Seong Kim. Crawford is a decent enough player but he is going into his age-32 season and his defense isn’t especially well regarded. He and the Mariners are already considering a move to third base. Kim has a better defensive reputation but hasn’t been healthy for most of the past two years. Old friend Mauricio Dubón will be out there but he’s never really been relied upon as an everyday shortstop for an extended stretch of time.
Trading Peña also wouldn’t represent massive cost savings. He is making $9.475MM this year and will be due a raise in arbitration, though it remains to be seen how much he can push his salary up. Around his injuries this year, he has a .259/.305/.333 line and 81 wRC+. He has lots of time to get healthy and get in a groove but it’s not yet a lock that he’s set for a huge raise.
Perhaps Peña being available is too much of a reach, but Walker and Paredes were both in plenty of rumors over the winter. It seems fair to expect that the Astros would be more willing to listen on these two.
Walker had a rough year in 2025 but is bouncing back with a big 2026. He has a .255/.330/.489 slash line and 128 wRC+. That’s much better than his 2025 line of .238/.297/.421 and roughly in line with his 2022-24 production in Arizona, when he hit .250/.332/.481 for a 121 wRC+.
The Astros may feel comfortable moving on from Walker and having Paredes on hand to take over at first base. Since Walker is making $20MM annually through 2027, they might also welcome the opportunity to move that deal and open up some payroll space. But that contract is also why Walker isn’t likely to have huge trade value, despite his comeback performance. Though some teams may be interested in adding his bat for the stretch run, a 36-year-old first baseman with a $20MM salary in 2027 isn’t going to be terribly attractive.
Players that age generally don’t get paid at that level. The most recent comp for a guy that age getting paid like that is the three-year, $58.5MM deal the Astros themselves gave to José Abreu. Houston fans know all too well how that one played out. Perhaps Walker can have a better age-36 season than Abreu did, but teams won’t be eager about paying to make that bet. Houston would probably have to eat some money to bring back any kind of notable return.
Paredes is in a more attractive position contractually. He is making $9.35MM in his penultimate arbitration season. His deal has a $13.35MM club option for 2027. Even if that is not picked up, he will be eligible for arbitration and could be retained at a price point roughly in that range.
He will therefore be cheaper than Walker and is also far younger, as he’ll be 28 next year. Unfortunately, he is having a bit of a down year so far. His 8.6% walk rate is down about three ticks relative to last year. His .244/.333/.378 line is above average, leading to a 105 wRC+, but it’s a big drop from last year’s .254/.352/.458 line and 128 wRC+. There’s a bit of surplus value here but not a ton. Considering that his pull swing fits perfectly with the Crawford Boxes in Daikin Park, he may be more valuable to Houston than to other clubs.
Holding all three of Peña, Walker and Paredes is also a possibility. As mentioned, that would maintain depth for 2027, as injuries will surely pop up next year. The downside to this path is that it won’t give the club much of a chance to capitalize on being sellers. Their impending free agents won’t fetch huge hauls. Lance McCullers Jr. and Weiss aren’t going to have much appeal to other clubs as things stand. Relievers Bryan Abreu, Steven Okert and Enyel De Los Santos can probably be dealt but aren’t performing up to their previous levels. Christian Vázquez is having a good season and may be moveable, but he won’t fetch much as a 35-year-old backup catcher.
In short, the Astros don’t have much to sell if they limit themselves to impending free agents. In that scenario, they wouldn’t do much to bolster the farm and wouldn’t free up any meaningful payroll space. They would go into the offseason with a similar roster, which is talented but with holes.
Trading an infielder would reduce the depth but could help in other areas. Peña would bring back a lot, either in terms of prospect capital or major-league-ready talent, but he would blow a big hole at shortstop. Moving one of Walker or Paredes wouldn’t leave such an obvious gap but neither has nearly as much trade value as Peña.
It’s an interesting fork in the road for the franchise and it’s unclear who will be picking which route to take. General manager Dana Brown is in the final year of his contract. Owner Jim Crane hasn’t been shy about making bold decisions about his front office, only offering then-GM James Click a one-year deal after the club’s World Series win in 2022 and subsequently letting him walk. Crane was uncertain enough about Brown to let him go into 2026 as a lame duck. Will he let him be in charge of a deadline sell-off? Would Brown even want to take part in a big sell-off when his job is potentially on the line?
If not Brown, who would be making the decisions? Crane briefly ran the front office between Click’s departure and Brown’s hiring, so he could do it himself. However, that didn’t go especially well. In that brief window, the Astros signed the aforementioned Abreu deal and also inked Rafael Montero to a three-year pact. Both of those deals quickly turned into big duds, so perhaps Crane realizes he shouldn’t be the one making these calls. Is there some assistant GM he would be willing to elevate this summer? Is there any possibility of finding an external front office leader midseason?
There are many lingering questions surrounding the the team, the players and the front office. How those questions are answered in the coming months will shape the club’s future, making them one of the most interesting clubs to monitor this summer.
Photo courtesy of Katie Stratman, Imagn Images
Bo Bichette’s Slow Start
Mets infielder Bo Bichette had zero extra-base hits in May entering this week. He popped a home run and a double on Monday against the Nationals, then followed it up with a two-homer game on Tuesday. Bichette came into the series against Washington with just two long balls this season. He’s more than doubled that mark in two games, while also pushing his OPS above .600 for the first time since May 1.
The move to Queens hasn’t gone as planned for Bichette after the Mets inked him to a hefty three-year, $126MM deal. The veteran had the ninth-lowest wRC+ among qualified hitters before Monday’s big night. He’s slashed .224/.277/.332 through 48 games. Those numbers looked eerily similar to Bichette’s 2024 campaign (.225/.277/.322), a year ruined by multiple injuries. The 28-year-old got back on track in 2025, a well-timed rebound ahead of his first crack at free agency. He’s slipped back into concerning habits this year.
Bichette’s approach has never been geared toward power. He makes hard contact, but sprays the ball to all fields and prioritizes line drives over fly balls. Even when Bichette was regularly reaching 20 home runs, he was doing it with a ground ball rate near 50% and a pulled air rate in the low teens. It’s an elite batting average profile, and league-leading hit collection is the main reason Bichette has been worth at least 3.5 wins (per Baseball Reference) in four of the previous five seasons.
The batted ball distribution this season is concerning, even for Bichette. His groundball rate is up to a career-high 51.2%. He’s pulling the ball in the air just 6.9% of the time, nearly half of his career norm (12%). Bichette is hitting line drives on just 23.1% of batted balls, which is below league average. Even in his difficult 2024 season, he hit line drives at a more than 30% clip.
Bichette has also taken a step back in terms of contact quality. He’s posted a 43.8% hard-hit rate, a 5% decline from 2025. He’s barreling the ball at a 5.6% rate, more than 3% below his career average. The only year Bichette has had a barrel rate below league average was 2024, when he stumbled to a 4.5% mark. Bichette still ranks in the 64th percentile for hard-hit rate. He’s in the 80th percentile for xBA at .280. For his profile to work, though, he’ll likely need to be closer to the league leaders in those categories. Bichette was in the 98th percentile with a .298 xBA in 2025. He finished second in the AL batting title race, behind only Aaron Judge.
The expectations of a significant contract, plus joining a new team, can weigh on a player. There’s also the New York factor. But if Bichette is pressing, the plate discipline doesn’t show it. He’s striking out just 16.3% of the time. His chase rate (38.1%) is up a bit from last season, but it’s more or less in line with his career mark of 36.8%. Bichette’s 7.3% swinging-strike rate is a career low. He’s making contact on pitches outside of the zone more than ever, which could explain some of the decline in contact quality. He might be better off swinging and missing a bit more often.
The most surprising aspect of Bichette’s stat line is the defense. The Mets signed him to play third base after he graded out as one of the worst shortstops in the league during his final year in Toronto. Injuries to Francisco Lindor and Ronny Mauricio forced Bichette back to shortstop, and he’s played fine there. He’s been neutral in terms of both Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average at the position. Bichette’s recorded -1 DRS and +1 OAA at third base. Unremarkable numbers with the glove are a huge improvement for Bichette, and likely part of the reason he’s performed at replacement level (-0.1 bRef WAR) despite the poor offensive contributions.
Like most hitters, Bichette has had tough months at the plate, even during strong seasons. He had a .687 OPS in June last year. His groundball rate jumped over 52% during that stretch. Bichette then turned around and hit .357 with 12 doubles and 18 RBI in July. There’s plenty of time for him to get back on track at the plate. And getting passable defense at multiple spots is a big win for the Mets, even if it’s not worth $42MM a year.
Photo courtesy of Rafael Suanes, Imagn Images
2026-27 Club Options: NL East
In recent weeks, MLBTR has looked forward to next winter’s option classes. We’ll move now to the NL East, where a former MVP and Cy Young winner are the most notable names.
Previous: AL East, AL Central, AL West
Atlanta Braves
- Ronald Acuña Jr., RF: $17MM club option ($10MM buyout)
This is as easy as they get. The Braves will exercise their $17MM option for 2027 and have a matching provision for the ’28 season. The first comes with a $10MM buyout, while the second has no buyout. It’s highly likely the Braves are going to pick them both up anyway, but it could be a moderately closer call for Atlanta after 2027 if Acuña has a bad or injury-riddled year.
The Braves have remarkably raced to the second-best start in MLB despite relatively underwhelming work from the five-time All-Star. Acuña has only connected on two home runs with a .252/.367/.382 slash line through his first 35 games. He missed a couple weeks with a Grade 1 strain of his left hamstring and returned to the lineup yesterday.
- Ozzie Albies, 2B: $7MM club option (no buyout)
Albies agreed to a pair of $7MM team options on his exceedingly club-friendly 2019 extension. He signed away up to four free agent years for a $35MM guarantee that’d max out at $45MM if the Braves exercised the options — the first of which contained a $4MM buyout.
For a few years, it was among the biggest bargain contracts in the league. A pair of down seasons in 2024-25 reduced the surplus value somewhat, though Atlanta still had an easy call to exercise the first option last winter. Picking up the second should require even less deliberation.
Albies has rebounded to hit .271/.329/.441 and is third among second basemen with eight home runs. The NL second base field is crowded, but Albies is putting together a strong case for his fourth All-Star selection while playing on a salary just above what Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Miguel Rojas commanded as free agents.
- Tyler Kinley, RHP: $5.5MM club option ($1.25MM buyout)
Atlanta acquired Kinley from the Rockies last summer. He pitched brilliantly down the stretch, but they nevertheless declined his $5.5MM option for 2026 in favor of a $750K buyout. They re-signed Kinley two months later on a $4.25MM free agent deal. He’s making $3MM this season and will be paid either a $1.25MM buyout or stick around for next season via $5.5MM team option.
Kinley, a slider specialist, has had a somewhat shaky start this season. His 23% strikeout rate is virtually unchanged from last year, but his walks have ticked up and he has been victimized by the home run ball. Kinley has given up a longball in four of his last eight times out. He’s up to 10 runs allowed (nine earned) across 20 2/3 innings.
The Braves have still used Kinley in a decent number of leverage situations. He’s tied for second on the team behind Dylan Lee with six holds. This one could go either way, but he’ll need to get on track to remain in skipper Walt Weiss’ circle of trust.
Miami Marlins
- Sandy Alcantara, RHP: $21MM club option ($2MM buyout)
The Marlins’ deadline will hinge largely on what to do with Alcantara. He’s making $17MM in the final guaranteed season of the $56MM extension he signed in 2021. Alcantara has rebounded from an abysmal first half of the ’25 campaign, as he clearly had trouble dialing in his command when he initially returned from a Tommy John procedure.
Alcantara carries a 3.53 ERA with an above-average 49% grounder rate over his first 10 starts. He has allowed 3.47 earned runs per nine in 23 starts going back to last summer’s All-Star Break. The Cy Young form probably isn’t coming back, but Alcantara would be a lock for a team’s playoff rotation. He’s still sitting in the 97-98 mph range with his four-seamer and sinker, albeit with a slight drop in strikeouts.
Miami’s only guaranteed money for the 2027 season is the $10MM they’ll send to the Yankees on the Giancarlo Stanton contract. None of their arbitration-eligible players would cost more than a few million dollars. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote earlier this month that Alcantara is a favorite of owner Bruce Sherman.
It would take another major injury or an atrocious second half for Alcantara’s option not to get picked up. The bigger question is whether that’ll be by the Marlins. They’re 22-27 and fourth from the bottom in a competitive National League. FanGraphs has their postseason chances below 5%. The prospect return would be higher this summer than it’d be at the 2027 deadline given the extra playoff run they’re marketing to a contender. Will the Fish keep Alcantara as a veteran rotation anchor or shop him as one of the best available arms?
New York Mets
- Luis Robert Jr., CF: $20MM club option ($2MM buyout)
The Mets took on Robert’s $20MM salary for the 2026 season in last winter’s trade with the White Sox. They didn’t surrender a whole lot in terms of young talent — Luisangel Acuña’s stock has tumbled over the past couple seasons — but it was still a sizable financial bet on Robert staying healthy and rebounding from two straight subpar offensive years.
Robert hit well for the first two weeks before falling into a slump in the middle of April. He had a .224/.327/.329 slash over 98 plate appearances when he landed on the injured list with lumbar disc inflammation. Initial hopes that it’d be close to a minimal stint haven’t panned out. He’s coming up on a monthlong absence without a clear timeline for when he’ll ramp up baseball activities.
The bet on Robert’s tools and early-career success hasn’t panned out so far. They’ve needed to call upon prospect A.J. Ewing earlier than expected. Ewing has shown a very disciplined approach through his first eight MLB games after an excellent start to the year in Triple-A. It’s too early to simply lock Ewing into the 2027 center field job, but the Mets would be better for it if he nails down the position with a strong rookie season. That’d solidify the increasingly probable chance that Robert gets bought out.
Philadelphia Phillies
- None.
Washington Nationals
- Zack Littell, RHP: $12MM mutual option ($4MM buyout)
Washington added Littell on a one-year, $7MM free agent deal. They included a $12MM mutual option that comes with a $4MM buyout. That’s an accounting mechanism that allows them to pay Littell more than half the money at the end of the season rather than throughout the summer in salary. They presumably hoped to shed some of the buyout responsibility by flipping Littell at the deadline, though the backloaded nature meant they’d have needed to cover some of it to find a trade partner.
That’s probably a moot point, as Littell hasn’t pitched well enough to merit much attention. He owns a 6.10 ERA with a career-low 10.6% strikeout rate while giving up 14 home runs in just 41 1/3 innings. He’s the only pitcher with 40+ frames who is allowing a homer once in every three innings pitched. Most of that damage came in April, but Littell has only recorded four strikeouts in 12 1/3 frames this month. If the Nationals didn’t have one of the worst rotations in MLB, they’d probably have given more consideration to moving on from Littell already.
Note: The Nationals hold respective club options on Cade Cavalli ($4MM) and Max Kranick ($850K). Both players would remain eligible for arbitration if Washington declines.
A Closer Look At The Best Offense In Baseball
Ah yes, the team we all expected to lead the majors in scoring nearly 50 games into the 2026 season: the New York Yankees (no?), the Los Angeles Dodgers (really?), the Washington Nationals. Wait, what?
Through 48 games, the Nationals are two games below .500 with a run differential (-22) that suggests they’re lucky to have won as many as they have. Their pitchers and defense have allowed a league-worst 284 runs. Yet, their run prevention struggles are hiding just how well they’re done on the other side of the ball.
Through 48 games, the Nationals have scored an MLB-leading 262 runs. That’s 12 more than the Braves in second, 18 more than the AL-leading Yankees, and 95 more than the last-place San Francisco Giants. If they maintain this pace, their 5.46 runs per game would set a new franchise record, surpassing the World Series-winning 2019 club (5.39) and the dominant 1994 Montreal Expos (5.13).
I don’t mean to say I expect the Nationals to keep this up all year. I doubt anyone does. Even so, what they’ve done to this point is impressive, especially considering preseason expectations. Coming into the year, you could have predicted Washington would score the fewest runs in the league, and nobody would have batted an eye. FanGraphs still projects the Nationals to rank last in runs per game over the rest of the season. Yet, they’ve already piled up so many that even if they score at their projected last-place pace (4.28 runs per game) over their final 114 contests, they would finish the year with 750 runs. That would be the fifth-highest total in franchise history.
The Expos/Nationals franchise is in its 58th season, and this is only the ninth year in which the team has scored at least 262 runs over any 48-game stretch. Those other years were 1987 (.562 winning percentage), 1994 (.649), 1996 (.543), 2012 (.605), 2017 (.599), 2018 (.506), and 2019 (.574). All eight seasons were winning campaigns. And heck, the eventual World Series champions in each of the last three seasons (2023-25) led the majors in scoring through their respective 48th games. Once again, I’m not trying to say Washington will win the World Series. I’m not trying to say Washington will finish with a winning record. But 48 games isn’t nothing, and through 48 games, the Nationals’ offense has been a lot more productive than you probably realized.
I’ll admit that the title of this post is a little tongue-in-cheek. However, the Nationals really have hit well this year. Their .740 OPS ranks fifth in MLB, and their 108 wRC+ is sixth. There’s certainly some good luck in their high run total, but it isn’t just the result of timely hitting or balls finding holes. Their .331 expected wOBA ranks seventh in the majors, while their numbers with runners in scoring position are only in the middle of the pack. The BaseRuns formula at FanGraphs, which estimates the number of runs a team would be expected to score based on their underlying offensive stats, suggests that Washington “deserves” to have scored 5.10 runs per game. That’s less than 5.46, but it’s still excellent. Only the Cubs, Dodgers, and Braves have a higher BaseRuns expectation. Meanwhile, Baseball Prospectus’s DRC+, a metric that considers quality of contact instead of just results, ranks the Nationals as MLB’s sixth-best offense – and that’s without giving them credit for their excellent baserunning.
Turning to the individual players, the memory of Juan Soto is powering the Nationals’ lineup in 2026. Shortstop CJ Abrams and outfielder James Wood, both of whom came to Washington in the Soto trade, are tearing the cover off the ball. In fact, they’re both outhitting Soto himself. Wood, the leadoff hitter, is pacing the majors in runs scored, while Abrams, batting cleanup these days, ranks third in RBI. They’re each among the top 20 qualified hitters in OPS and wRC+.
Wood is hitting for a bit more power, and his 17.5% walk rate leads the National League. Abrams puts the ball in play more often, and he’s been flirting with a .300 average for much of the year. The question for Abrams going forward is whether he can avoid another midseason collapse. He started strong in 2024 and ’25 before struggling badly in each season’s second half. As for Wood, the only question is how high he can climb. The numbers are already remarkable, and the way he impacts the baseball suggests his ceiling is even higher. His .393 wOBA ranks 11th among qualified NL batters, but his .425 xwOBA leads the Senior Circuit.
After Wood and Abrams, Daylen Lile is the team’s only other qualified hitter with a wRC+ above league average. That goes to show how much Washington’s two best hitters have done for this offense, but Lile deserves his fair share of credit as well. The left fielder isn’t lighting the world on fire like he was down the stretch last year, but he has continued to be a power threat against right-handed pitching. A deeper team might platoon him more often, but his overall 112 wRC+ is solid, even if a 78 wRC+ against southpaws is dragging that number down.
Speaking of platoons, the Nationals’ best hitter this season – without any playing time minimums – has technically been Joey Wiemer. The righty-batting outfielder began the season by reaching base safely in his first 10 trips to the plate. All in all, he has slashed .300/.410/.529 with a team-best 165 wRC+ in 83 plate appearances. Wiemer’s track record and the underlying numbers made it clear that none of it was sustainable, and the Nationals saw that, optioning him in favor of Dylan Crews earlier today. Regardless, Wiemer is a part of this story, and a pretty important one at that.
So is fellow right-handed batter Curtis Mead, who is finally starting to look like the promising hitter he was in the Phillies’ and Rays’ minor league systems. A .213 isolated power and more walks than strikeouts through 114 plate appearances have resulted in a 133 wRC+. Washington has shielded the infielder from same-handed pitching, but to his credit, his early numbers are equally strong against lefties and righties alike. While the sample is small, Mead is swinging at the right pitches and hitting the ball hard. The Nationals are surely grateful the White Sox designated him for assignment at the beginning of the year.
One last player worth highlighting is Nasim Nuñez. With a .187 batting average and a 54 wRC+, the second baseman has hurt his team’s offense more than he’s helped. Still, he walks enough that he gets on base at a passable rate, and once he reaches base, he might be the most dangerous player in the game. His 20 stolen bases are tied for the MLB lead, while his 3.4 baserunning run value (per FanGraphs) ranks second to only José Ramírez. That accounts for two-thirds of the Nationals’ league-leading 5.1 baserunning runs.
I’ve only touched on six of the 14 players who have stepped to the plate for the Nationals this year, and one of them isn’t even on the active roster anymore. That’s a big reason why this level of success doesn’t seem sustainable. Wood is the closest thing this offense has to a sure bet, and he’s still just a 23-year-old who has never hit this well over a prolonged period of time. The Nationals earned their 262 runs, and they earned the praise I’m giving them. Yet, this praise shouldn’t be confused with confidence. The Nationals have had the most successful offense in baseball over the first eight weeks of the season, but there are a whole lot of weeks left to play.
Stats up-to-date entering play on Tuesday, May 19. Images courtesy of Rafael Suanes, Charles LeClaire, and Patrick Gorski – Imagn Images