The Yankees’ Other Young Ace In The Making
If you weren’t familiar with Cam Schlittler before this season, I’m sure you are now. The 25-year-old owns an AL-leading 1.35 ERA across nine starts. The Yankees are 7-2 in his outings, and opposing batters are hitting .176 against the righty and his devastating three-fastball mix. With Tarik Skubal on the shelf, Schlittler has emerged as an early frontrunner to start for the AL All-Stars this summer in Philadelphia. Some might tell you he’s the Cy Young favorite, too. But Schlittler isn’t the only reason the Yankees’ starting staff has exceeded expectations in 2026.
Will Warren, 27 next month, has a 3.42 ERA through nine starts of his own. With 59 strikeouts, he’s tied with Schlittler for fourth-most in the American League. His 5-1 record also matches Schlittler’s, as does New York’s 7-2 record in his starts. Under the hood, the numbers are just as impressive. Warren ranks among the AL’s top 10 qualified arms in xERA and FIP, while his xFIP and SIERA put him into the league’s top five. The only AL pitchers ahead of him in all four metrics are Schlittler, Dylan Cease, and Jacob deGrom.
One thing all of those “ERA estimators” appreciate is the significance of strikeouts, walks, and their relationship to one another. Warren’s strikeout rate is up from 24.1% in 2025, his first full season, to 29.8% in 2026. His walk rate has dropped by nearly one third, from 9.1% to 6.1%. Accordingly, his 23.7% K-BB% (strikeout rate minus walk rate) is more than 10 percentage points higher than the league average for a starting pitcher. K-BB% is a stat that stabilizes relatively quickly. It’s also one of the strongest predictors of future run prevention. Warren still needs to prove he can pitch this well over a full season, but his much-improved K-BB% is a powerful indicator that his early success is more than smoke and mirrors. Schlittler is turning heads with a 24.8% K-BB% after 202 batters faced. As far as strikeouts and walks are concerned, Warren has been almost equally excellent in a similar-sized sample.
It isn’t hard to see that Warren has been pitching better than he was last year. It’s a little harder to understand how and why. His strikeouts are up and his walks are down, but he isn’t throwing substantially more pitches in the strike zone or generating more swings. His swing-and-miss rate is middle of the pack, while his chase rate is well below league average. Even more curiously, his strikeout and whiff rates are down on his sweeper, which was widely considered his bread and butter in his prospect days. When Warren put up a 4.44 ERA in 33 starts last season, many were quick to note that he did so despite opponents hitting .336 with a .569 slug against his supposed “best pitch.” Instead of being a weapon, it was the least effective sweeper in the game, with a run value of -10, per Baseball Savant. So, it would have made perfect sense to presume that Warren needed to harness his sweeper if he was going to take the next step.
It would have made perfect sense, and yet… the explanation for his success isn’t that simple. Warren throws his four-seam fastball, sinker, and sweeper each about one third of the time against right-handed batters. When he doesn’t have the platoon advantage, he also mixes in a changeup and a curveball to keep lefty batters on their toes. All five of those offerings have above-average (or better) raw stuff this year, according to models like Stuff+ and PitchingBot at FanGraphs.
However, most of his pitches had good stuff last year too. What Warren has really improved in 2026, according to those models, is his command, specifically on his four-seam, sweeper, and changeup. Indeed, a glance at his heat maps will confirm that he’s been hitting his spots with those pitches more frequently. He isn’t letting his four-seam fastball drift to the sides, he’s wasting fewer sweepers, and he’s punishing opposite-handed hitters with his changeup low and away. The righty might not be throwing more pitches in the zone, but he’s throwing pitches where he needs to throw them to earn more strikes.
Just as consequential as where Warren is throwing his pitches is when and where he’s throwing them in relation to one another. In other words, all five of his pitches work in tandem. His changeup works because it plays off his sinker. His sinker works because he pairs it with his four-seam. They all work because his sweeper gives him such a different look. His arsenal is more than the sum of its parts.
To that point, Stuff+ and PitchingBot give Warren strong scores for the stuff and location of each of his individual pitches, but his overall scores – scores that take into account physical pitch characteristics, pitch locations, and situational usage for his entire arsenal – are nothing short of elite. His 118 Pitching+ (a sister metric to Stuff+) ranks third among qualified arms across MLB, trailing only stuff god deGrom and stuff prodigy Jacob Misiorowski. Warren’s overall PitchingBot score is even better, leading all 79 qualified pitchers in the major leagues. It may be just one metric, but it’s a metric that puts him ahead of names like deGrom, Skubal, Skenes… and Schlittler. Pitching+ and PitchingBot aren’t stats you hear about every day, but they’re powerful tools for predicting rest-of-season runs allowed in smaller samples. When all is said and done, what matters is preventing runs and winning ballgames. The pitch models tell us that Warren has the skills to do exactly that.
Gerrit Cole has been out all season. Carlos Rodón only just returned. If Clarke Schmidt pitches at all this year, it won’t be until the latter half of the schedule. Luis Gil is hurt too, and even before he landed on the Triple-A injured list, he was pitching like something was wrong. Those four pitchers made up the Yankees’ rotation as recently as the 2024 World Series. Yet, even without meaningful contributions from any of them, New York’s starters lead the Junior Circuit in wins, xERA, and FanGraphs WAR. Their 3.14 ERA ranks second, and their 16.5% K-BB% ranks third. Not all of that is Warren’s doing – he’s had plenty of help from Schlittler, Max Fried, and Ryan Weathers – but it would be hard to overstate how much he has meant to his team so far in 2026. Cole, Fried, Rodón, and now Schlittler are much bigger names, but Warren is looking like another future ace for New York.
Photos courtesy of Maria Lysaker, Imagn Images.
What Should The Cardinals Do With Riley O’Brien?
It’s been a weird year for closers. Edwin Díaz, Josh Hader, Ryan Helsley, Emilio Pagán, Carlos Estévez and others are on the injured list. Jeff Hoffman lost his job with the Blue Jays. Pete Fairbanks, just reinstated from the IL, has an earned run average of 10.00. Devin Williams and Andrés Muñoz have ERAs over 5.00. Bryan Abreu, filling in for Hader, has an ERA over 8.00. The Cardinals, meanwhile, are getting great results from a guy who hardly pitched in the majors before his 30th birthday.
St. Louis acquired Riley O’Brien in a very small trade in November of 2023. At the time, O’Brien didn’t even have a 40-man roster spot with the Mariners. All 29 other clubs had passed on claiming him when Seattle placed him on outright waivers in the summer of 2022. He was about to become a minor league free agent, but the Cards saw enough in O’Brien to send cash to Seattle to acquire him and place him on their 40-man roster so he couldn’t hit the open market.
The track record at that time wasn’t much to go on. An eighth-round pick of the Rays in 2017, O’Brien began his career as a starting pitcher. He was flipped to the Reds in August of 2020 for left-hander Cody Reed. Cincinnati added O’Brien to the 40-man roster that November to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. Things didn’t work out with the Reds. O’Brien made a brief major league debut in 2021 but posted a 4.55 ERA in Triple-A. He was designated for assignment early in 2022 and shipped to the Mariners for cash or a player to be named later.
O’Brien was moved to a relief role in 2022, a switch that didn’t immediately bear fruit. He finished the year with a 7.03 ERA in 39 2/3 Triple-A innings. He seemed to turn a corner in 2023 when he threw 55 Triple-A innings with a 2.29 ERA in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. O’Brien struck out 37.7% of batters faced and induced grounders on 57.1% of balls in play. His 13.6% walk rate showed that he was still working on his control, but the Cards were intrigued enough to make that small trade and dedicate a 40-man spot to him.
That didn’t pay off right away. O’Brien suffered a flexor strain early in 2024 and missed most of the season. He was only able to make eight big league appearances and 14 more in Triple-A. He went into 2025 with only 10 1/3 major league innings under his belt. He turned 30 in February of that year, just before the season started.
O’Brien was finally able to break out in the big leagues last year, as he gave the Cards 48 innings with a 2.06 ERA. He wasn’t really as good as that ERA would suggest, however. His 11.1% walk rate was quite high and his 22.6% strikeout rate only average. His 54.1% ground ball rate was good but he got a lot of help from a .252 batting average on balls in play and 82.8% strand rate. His 3.61 FIP and 3.82 SIERA suggested he was good but not quite as dominant as the ERA made it seem.
The Cardinals sent him to the minors a few times last year and burned his final option year. That situation could push a pitcher off the roster, but that’s not going to happen anytime soon with O’Brien. He has taken over the closer’s role in St. Louis, with a 2.70 ERA and 12 saves in 20 innings so far this year. Though that ERA is higher than last year’s, the numbers under the hood look far better. His 29.5% strikeout rate, 2.6% walk rate and 62% ground ball rate are all huge improvements. His .320 BABIP this year actually skews a bit to the unlucky side. His 2.06 FIP and 1.67 SIERA think he actually deserves far better than his ERA.
The results are backed by a strong arsenal. O’Brien is averaging 98.4 miles per hour with his sinker, a pitch he is throwing 59.2% of the time. This year’s most-used secondary pitch is a sweeper that comes in around 83.8 mph, though he’s also using a 91.5 mph slider, giving hitters two different breaking pitches to watch out for. There’s also a changeup nominally in the mix, though that has made up less than 1% of his offerings this year.
O’Brien’s success is a big reason why the Cardinals are playing a bit above their heads right now. They have a 24-18 record despite an essentially even run differential. They have scored 194 runs and allowed 193. The +1 run differential gives them an expected win-loss of 21-21, but they have gone 8-3 in one-run games and 5-1 in extra innings. In short, they’ve played like a .500 team on the whole but have eked out three extra wins in close contests. O’Brien locking down 12 saves and earning three wins has surely played a role in tipping those scales.
It puts the Cards in an interesting spot this summer. They had planned for this season to be an evaluation year. They traded away Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras, Nolan Arenado and Brendan Donovan in rebuilding moves. The plan was to spend 2026 letting less-established guys accumulate lots of playing time, so the club could figure out who is a building block and who has trade value.
Perhaps the Cardinals will fall back in the standings and make things easier for the team brass. If not, it could lead to some tough decisions. The front office probably doesn’t want to buy at the deadline since that would require subtracting from the farm system, at a time when they are trying to build it. In fact, they probably want to do more selling, with guys like Lars Nootbaar, JoJo Romero, Dustin May, Nolan Gorman and Alec Burleson being some logical trade candidates.
O’Brien will be a very interesting player to track as well. On the one hand, he is not close to free agency. He came into this year with one year and 129 days of service time. He’s under club control for four more seasons after this one. He could qualify for arbitration this offseason as a Super Two guy, but even he does, four arb years for what looks like a potential high-end reliever is a great thing to have. There’s a case for keeping him around.
On the other hand, reliever performance tends to be quite erratic. O’Brien is 31 years old and doesn’t have a long track record of big league success. He walked 11.6% of batters faced in his minor league career. He had a 13.1% walk rate in the majors coming into this season. He’s now walking just 2.6% of opponents this year. Did he suddenly go from poor control to elite, or is this going to regress?
There’s also the ever-present injury concerns with a pitcher, especially one who throws almost 100 mph. Most high-velocity pitchers deal with arm issues these days and O’Brien had that aforementioned flexor strain in 2024.
There are many moving pieces here, making O’Brien an interesting player to watch in the coming months. As mentioned up top, lots of clubs have gotten poor results from their closers. Relievers are always in demand at the deadline and that need will perhaps be even greater this year. There’s an argument for the Cards to cash in while O’Brien is putting up good numbers. When they plan to truly contend in a few years, he’ll be pushing into his mid-3os and who knows what his status will be at that point?
Between now and the August 3 deadline, there are many ways it could tip. O’Brien could keep locking down games but he could also see his control slip or he could perhaps get hurt. The team could keep winning games and hang in the race or they could slip back. Trade talks won’t earnestly ramp up for a while but the Cardinals will have some interesting phone calls this summer.
Photo courtesy of Dennis Lee, Imagn Images
2026-27 Club Options: AL West
In recent weeks, MLBTR has looked forward to next winter’s option classes. We’ll move now to the AL West, where the Athletics have the two most notable decisions.
Previous: AL East, AL Central
Athletics
- Jeff McNeil, 2B: $15.75MM club option (Mets responsible for $2MM buyout as part of December trade)
The A’s landed McNeil in what amounted to a salary dump trade for the Mets. The A’s needed a second baseman and pivoted to the former batting champion shortly after Ha-Seong Kim declined a four-year free agent offer. They picked up $10MM of McNeil’s $15.75MM salary for this season, with the Mets agreeing to cover the $2MM buyout on a matching club option if the A’s don’t bring him back in 2027.
It’ll probably be a one-year stop in Sacramento for the two-time All-Star. McNeil has a league average .276/.343/.362 batting line across 144 plate appearances. He’s following his usual high-contact approach but only has one home run and nine extra-base hits overall. He’s a league average hitter who plays decent but unexceptional defense at second base. McNeil is still a solid player, but he’s not going to command a near-$16MM salary for his age-35 season.
- Jeffrey Springs, LHP: $15MM club option ($750K buyout)
This one could be a trickier decision for GM David Forst and his front office. The A’s acquired Springs from Tampa Bay over the 2024-25 offseason, assuming the remaining two years and $21MM on his contract in the process. Springs was excellent when healthy with Tampa Bay but had barely pitched between 2023-24 on account of April ’23 Tommy John surgery.
The veteran southpaw has avoided the injured list over his year-plus in Sacramento. He hasn’t been as good as he was back in 2022 with the Rays. Springs has settled in as a mid-rotation arm, a control artist with league average strikeout stuff. He can miss bats with his secondary pitches, especially his changeup, but it’s a hittable fastball. He attacks the top of the strike zone with a 90-91 mph heater, an approach that gets a decent number of weak fly balls but also makes him susceptible to home runs.
That’s especially true at the hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park. Springs has a 4.93 ERA over 20 home starts compared to a 3.36 mark in 21 road appearances with the A’s. He’s certainly not their only pitcher to have a tougher time in Sacramento. The end result is a low-4.00s ERA that makes him a #4 caliber starter.
That has value, especially for an A’s team that could be at a disadvantage in pursuing free agent arms. If Springs stays healthy enough to make 30 starts with league average numbers, the A’s would probably bring him back on what amounts to a $14.25MM decision. They have some younger starters on the way (or in the case of J.T. Ginn, already performing at the big league level) but don’t have many proven innings sources behind Springs and Luis Severino.
Houston Astros
- Ryan Weiss, RHP: $5MM club option ($500K buyout)
Houston signed Weiss to a $2.6MM free agent deal over the winter. The 29-year-old righty hadn’t pitched in MLB but was coming off an excellent season and a half with the Hanwha Eagles in Korea. Weiss had turned in a 2.87 ERA over 30 starts while ranking fourth among KBO pitchers with 207 strikeouts last year.
The Astros brought him in to compete for a spot at the back of a wide open rotation. Weiss instead landed in long relief and has struggled to throw strikes, walking 15% of opponents en route to a near-8.00 ERA through his first 26 MLB innings. He has fanned 23% of batters faced and is averaging 95 mph on his fastball, but the walks and early home run issues led the Astros to option him to Triple-A last week. He worked 4 2/3 innings of one-run ball with three strikeouts in his first start for Sugar Land.
The $5MM option is affordable enough that Weiss could still get the front office’s attention if he dials in the command. This addition hasn’t started the way the Astros had hoped, though, and it’s likelier he’ll be bought out.
Isaac Paredes’ arbitration deal includes a $13.35MM club option for 2027. He’d be eligible for arbitration for a final time even if Houston declines the option.
Los Angeles Angels
- Robert Stephenson, RHP: $2.5MM club option (no buyout)
Stephenson’s three-year, $33MM contract has been almost a complete wash. The Angels bet on the righty’s monster second half of the 2023 season, adding what they hoped to be a late-inning weapon. Injuries have unfortunately wiped out essentially all of the last three years.
The former first-round pick blew out during Spring Training ’24 and underwent Tommy John surgery that April. He was unable to make his team debut until May 2025. Stephenson immediately went back down with biceps inflammation and was out into August. He came into Spring Training healthy but suffered yet another elbow ligament injury and underwent season-ending surgery last month.
Stephenson’s contract contained a stipulation that the Angels would get a $2.5MM club option for 2027 if he suffered a serious elbow injury. That’s in play now, but it seems likely the Halos will move on after he was only able to pitch 12 times in a three-year span.
Seattle Mariners
- Andrés Muñoz, RHP: $8MM club option (no buyout)
The Mariners have one of the easiest calls for a team to exercise on Muñoz. Seattle signed him to what became a bargain extension as he completed his rehab from early-career Tommy John surgery. The hard-throwing righty has gone on to consecutive All-Star appearances as one of the best closers in the game from 2024-25.
Muñoz has unexpectedly struggled through his first six weeks of the ’26 season. He has blown a couple save opportunities and allowed 11 runs (10 earned) across 17 innings. The strikeout and walk profile is as strong as ever, though, and only three pitchers with at least 10 frames — Mason Miller, Kyle Hurt and Dylan Lee — have a better swinging strike rate than Muñoz does. He should be just fine, and the M’s will have a $10MM option for 2028. The ’27 option has an $8MM base value that’ll climb to $9MM if he finishes 45 games this year.
- Victor Robles, RF: $9MM club option ($500K buyout)
Seattle signed Robles to a two-year, $9.75MM extension in August 2024. He’d only been on the roster for around two and a half months, as the Nationals had released the outfielder that June. Robles went on an absolute tear in his first few months with Seattle, hitting .328/.393/.467 while stealing 30 bags across 77 games.
The extension window has not gone as hoped. Robles injured his left shoulder making an exceptional catch at the wall in April 2025. He suffered a fracture and dislocation that wound up costing him four months (extended slightly by a seven-game suspension when he threw his bat at a Triple pitcher after a hit by pitch while on a rehab assignment).
Robles suffered another injury within the first two weeks of this season. A right pectoral strain has kept him on the IL for the past month. Robles is with Triple-A Tacoma on a rehab stint and should be back within the next week, but he’ll probably be in a fourth outfield role now that Luke Raley has broken out of a late-April funk. This is trending towards a buyout.
Bryce Miller’s arbitration deal contains a $6.075MM club option with a $15K buyout. He’d remain eligible for arbitration even if Seattle declines the option.
Texas Rangers
- Kyle Higashioka, C: $7MM mutual option ($1MM buyout)
The Rangers have built in a few mutual options, which essentially never get picked up by both parties. They just delay the payment of a portion of the guarantee in the form of an option buyout. Higashioka will collect a $1MM buyout to conclude his two-year, $13.5MM free agent contract signed over the 2024-25 offseason.
The veteran catcher played pretty well in the first year of the deal but is out to a .203/.271/.266 start in 20 games this season. The Rangers signed Danny Jansen to a similar two-year contract last offseason and will probably look for a cheaper catching partner for him in 2027. They should decline their end.
- Jakob Junis, RHP: $5MM mutual option ($1.25MM buyout)
Texas built their bullpen with a bunch of cheap one-year free agent pickups for a second straight offseason. It’s working well again, thanks in no small part to Junis. The 33-year-old has allowed just four runs through his first 19 innings, collecting five holds and three saves without giving up a lead.
The market rarely seems to buy into Junis’ slider-heavy approach. He sits in the 91-92 mph range on his fastball and has one of the lowest swinging strike rates (6.4%) in MLB. Junis nevertheless has made a career of outperforming modest expectations. He has topped 60 innings in four straight seasons and carries a 3.13 ERA over 238 2/3 innings going back to the start of 2023.
There’s only a $3.75MM difference between the option value and the buyout price. That’s similar to his respective $4.5MM and $2.75MM salaries of the past two seasons. There’s an argument that both sides should be happy with their end of the mutual option, but history suggests at least one will opt for the buyout. Junis’ camp might hold out hope he’ll follow the Phil Maton path and find a two-year deal, or the Rangers could cut him loose despite a seemingly reasonable salary — as they did with Jacob Webb in arbitration last winter.
- Joc Pederson, DH: $18.75MM mutual option
Texas will have an easy call to decline their end of Pederson’s mutual option. That’ll conclude his two-year, $37.5MM free agent signing. Pederson has rebounded slightly from a dismal first season in Texas but is still hitting at a below-average level this year. He has a .190/.296/.331 line over 424 plate appearances as a Ranger.
Michael Harris Is Better Than Ever
Braves outfielder Michael Harris II picked up four hits on Friday against the Dodgers, pushing his batting average back over .300. The 25-year-old has a career-best 139 wRC+ through 38 games. Harris, already in his fifth big-league season, seems to be making good on the prospect pedigree that had him atop Atlanta’s system before his 2022 debut.
Harris was just 21 years old when he was handed the Braves’ everyday center fielder gig. He performed well in his first taste of the majors, slashing .297/.339/.514 across 441 plate appearances. He fell just one homer shy of a 20/20 campaign. Harris earned NL Rookie of the Year honors, beating out teammate Spencer Strider.
Atlanta signed Harris to an eight-year, $72MM extension in August of that first season. It looked like a good bit of business for both sides. Harris secured a significant payday after just four months as a big leaguer. The Braves locked down a promising young outfielder for the rest of the decade. With Ronald Acuna Jr. and Ozzie Albies also signed to relatively inexpensive long-term deals, the organization had its core in place for the foreseeable future.
Harris took a slight step back in the power department in 2023, but was still 16% better than league average at the plate. He improved his strikeout rate to 18.7%, down from 24.3% as a rookie. Harris regressed again in 2024. His wRC+ slipped below 100 for the first time. After two years hitting above .290, Harris hit .264 in 110 games. He missed a significant chunk of the year with a hamstring injury.
The 2025 campaign was a bounce-back from a health perspective. Harris played a career-high 160 games. The volume helped him finally reach his first 20/20 season. The rate stats were concerning, though. Harris slashed .249/.268/.409 across 641 plate appearances. His walk rate, already among the lowest in the league, fell to 2.5%. Harris chased pitches out of the strike zone more than ever.
The game plan against Harris was pretty clear last year. Pitchers attacked him with four-seamers and sinkers. Harris hammered fastballs as a rookie, but began to struggle against the heat. He posted a career-worst -4 Run Value vs. four-seamers in 2025. Sinkers were an even bigger issue. No hitter performed worse on any pitch than Harris against sinkers, with a league-low -17 Run Value. It was the worst mark since Tigers infielder Jonathan Schoop posted a -18 Run Value against four-seamers in 2022. Unsurprisingly, Harris saw sinkers at a career-high 20.9% clip.
Getting exploited by fastballs is a big problem at the highest level. It can be a career-ending flaw. Harris was on the verge of being a glove-only asset stuck at the bottom of the lineup. He seems to have solved his fastball issues in 2026. He’s hitting .318 against sinkers this season. He’s also obliterating four-seamers, with a .700 SLG and a silly 70.6% hard-hit rate. Harris is doing damage like never before, regardless of pitch type. He ranks in the 99th percentile in hard-hit rate and average exit velocity. Harris has a robust .326 xBA and a hefty .614 xSLG.
Harris has made subtle tweaks to his stance and setup. He’s moved up in the box and closer to the plate. His feet are a couple of inches further apart than last year. He’s also opened his stance by seven degrees compared to 2025. The adjustments, combined with career highs in bat speed (75.1 mph) and fast swing rate (51.4%), have produced a massive 16.5% barrel rate and a career-best 19.2% pulled air rate.
There are still some process flaws here. Harris is once again chasing more than ever. He’s offering at 43.1% of pitches outside of the strike zone, the eighth-highest mark among qualified hitters. Harris’ 51% groundball rate is his highest since 2022. And while he’s hit safely at a solid rate against sinkers, it’s been strictly singles. Those are more nitpicks than major concerns, though.
The quad injury has sapped Harris’ speed, which might cost him a shot at another 20/20 season, but the power looks legit. Health permitting, he should cruise past his career high of 20 home runs. The adjustments he’s made this year suggest he’s back to being an offensive force in a lineup that looks like one of the best in baseball.
Photo courtesy of Brett Davis, Imagn Images
The Giants’ Long-Term Contracts Are Becoming A Big Problem
The Giants are in a real tough spot right now. They are 16-24 on the season, one of the worst records in baseball. An individual season being disappointing is something that happens to most teams but the current struggles are casting shadows over the long-term outlook since a lot of the disappointment is coming from the long-term core.
Aside from a stunning 107-win season in 2021, the Giants have been a .500 club or worse for a decade now. They have tried to get more aggressive recently, adding a number of large contracts to their books. Their three longest remaining commitments are to Rafael Devers, Willy Adames and Matt Chapman. All three are performing poorly, which could limit the club’s flexibility going forward. One major underwater contract is usually bad news for a team but three is obviously a much greater concern.
Devers is easily having the worst season of his career so far. He has a .232/.276/.364 batting line and 79 wRC+, indicating he’s been 21% worse than the league average hitter. That’s miles south of his career line, which is .274/.347/.502 and translates to a 125 wRC+. His 30.1% strikeout rate is more than three ticks worse than his previous career high. His 6.1% walk rate would be his lowest in a full season. The struggles can’t really be blamed on poor luck. Devers has a .310 batting average on balls in play. That’s a bit south of his .315 career rate but barely, and still above the .289 league average.
The Giants probably have to be hoping Devers is hurt. If not, the trends are gloomy. Though he was still a productive hitter as recently as last year, there have been some worrying things under the hood for a while. His bat speed was in the 68th percentile of qualified hitters in 2023 but that dropped to 61st in 2024 and 42nd last year. He’s down to 38th so far in 2026.
At the same time, he’s been getting attacked more and taking advantage less. 45% of the pitches Devers saw in 2023 were in the strike zone. That ticked up to 47.2% in 2024, 48.6% last year and 50.6% this year. He’s also been seeing more fastballs and less offspeed stuff. In 2023, he was getting 59.8% fastballs and 16.3% offspeed. That ratio has shifted to be 64.9% fastballs and 12.6% offspeed this year. He made contact on 76.2% of pitches in the zone in 2023, but that dropped to 71.9%, 71.4% and 69.4% in subsequent seasons.
Devers’ exit velocity and hard-hit rate stayed strong for most of that stretch but have nosedived this year. He is averaging 90.3 miles per hour off the bat this year, more than three points below last year’s 93.5 mph. His 46.2% hard hit rate is well below last year’s 56.1% clip. Last year, he still damaged four-seam fastballs. Statcast gave him a run value of 13 as he hit .249 with a .512 slug. This year, he’s at a -2 run value with a .192 batting average and .462 slug.
In short, teams don’t seem too scared of Devers and he’s not making them pay for that. Perhaps there is some ailment that explains this. Devers has dealt with back, shoulder and hamstring issues in his career. A disk injury in his lower back was hampering him last year, though he didn’t go on the injured list for it.
If that’s not what’s going on here and Devers is just suddenly hitting a decline phase at age 29, that’s extremely worrisome for the Giants. He’s not a burner on the basepaths and doesn’t provide defensive value. He was never a good third baseman and doesn’t seem likely to play there again (at least not with any kind of regularity). He’s still getting accustomed to first base and hasn’t received good grades there so far. He needs to hit to be useful to the Giants.
Adames is having an even worse season at the plate. He has a .209/.242/.342 line and 64 wRC+. His 3.6% walk rate is awful and about half of his previous career low, which was 7.9% in 2022. He has always had a somewhat high strikeout rate but this year’s 29.7% clip would easily be his worst in a full season. His hard hit rate, exit velocity and barrel rate are all down relative to last year.
The issue for Adames is perhaps one of aggression. He’s actually getting pitched in the zone less while making more contact on the whole. However, he is only swinging at the first pitch 26.1% of the time, compared to a 30.9% career rate. He is also only swinging at 65.1% of pitches in the zone, compared to a 70.2% career clip.
However you chop it up, it’s not good, but Adames at least covers a premium position at shortstop. Outs Above Average thinks he’s a bit worse defensively this year but Defensive Runs Saved has him trending up. Though Adames and Devers are both struggling to hit, Adames should be less of a concern due to his ability to cover shortstop, at least for now.
Chapman’s offense isn’t quite as dire as the other two but it’s still not good. His 9% walk rate and 22.9% strikeout rate are both near league average, but he has just one home run, a .235/.313/.322 line and an 86 wRC+. His 31.5% hard-hit rate is way down from last year’s 47.6% clip. Chapman’s glovework is still getting strong reviews, however, so he hasn’t been totally useless.
The club’s results aren’t entirely due to these three, as the pitching has also been lackluster. However, in a sense, that is connected to these three big contracts. The Giants have seemingly been loath to spend on pitching lately, presumably because so much of their payroll is already tied up. In the past two offseasons, their two-year, $22MM deal with Adrian Houser has been their largest pitching investment.
Making any kind of pivot is going to be very difficult, if not impossible. Chapman and Adames both have full no-trade protection. Even putting that aside, it’s not as though they have a ton of value. Adames will make $28MM annually from 2027 to 2031, leaving $140MM still to be paid out after the current season. Given his current performance, no club will be eager to take that on. Chapman is making $25MM annually through 2030, leaving $100MM on the deal after this season. He’s still picking it at third but he just turned 33, so teams know decline is coming eventually.
Devers does not have no-trade protection in his deal, which is why the Giants were able to get him from the Red Sox. But the deal runs through 2033 and isn’t cheap. Nominally, he’s getting paid about $30MM a year for the remainder, though $7.5MM is deferred annually and to be paid out through 2043. Even if some team were willing to acquire him, the optics for the Giants would be rough. Since his stock is down, they would receive something less than what they just gave up to get Devers last year, when they sent out Kyle Harrison, James Tibbs III, Jose Bello and Jordan Hicks. At this point, they would likely have to eat a substantial portion of the deal just to get anything of note.
It’s a rough spot for president of baseball operations Buster Posey, whose fingerprints are on all three deals, even though just one of them was technically signed under his watch. The Giants originally signed Chapman to a three-year deal with opt-outs heading into the 2024 season. At that time, Posey was on the club’s ownership board and Farhan Zaidi was still president of baseball operations. In September of 2024, the Giants signed Chapman to a six-year, $151MM extension. Reporting at the time indicating that Posey was instrumental in negotiating that deal with Chapman. Posey replaced Zaidi not long after. Adames was signed a few months later. The Giants traded for Devers a few months after that.
There aren’t easy answers. Presumably, the Giants don’t want to start a big rebuild when they have already been scuffling for most of the past decade. Even if they wanted to, they are fairly committed to the present. In addition to the three really big deals, they are paying Jung Hoo Lee a good amount of money through 2029 and Logan Webb through 2028. Houser and Harrison Bader are going to make hefty salaries through next year. They spent a bunch of money to hire Tony Vitello as their manager this year. In addition to his $3.5MM salary, they paid the University of Tennessee $3MM to buy out his contract and are still paying $4MM to Bob Melvin this year after picking up his contract option and then firing him.
Internal help may not be likely. The farm isn’t considered a disaster but is generally ranked in the middle of the 30 teams in the league. Most of their top prospects are in the lower levels. Addressing the weak spots of the roster via free agency is perhaps not plausible either, based on the way the club has seemingly pumped the brakes since adding Chapman, Adames and Devers to the books.
It seems Posey may be stuck trying to work around these three. He made one such move this weekend, flipping Patrick Bailey to the Guardians for a pitching prospect and a draft pick. Bailey is the best defensive catcher in the game but his offense has been poor and worsened this year. His limp bat may have been more tolerable if the rest of the lineup was producing but that was not the case.
That return won’t help the club in the near term. Rather, they have to hope that players like Jesús Rodríguez and Daniel Susac form adequate replacements for Bailey, with less value on defense but hopefully far more on offense.
If the club can’t climb back in the race in the coming months, more future-focused moves will be forthcoming this summer. Rental players like Robbie Ray, Luis Arraez and Tyler Mahle will be available but without huge value. Mahle has a 5.18 ERA. Ray is pitching well but his $25MM salary is hefty. Arraez is also having a good season but is making $12MM. A bigger sell-off will be difficult. Houser and Bader are both having poor seasons. The longer deals will be ever harder to move.
When Posey first got his current job, he spoke of wanting to get the Giants back into the memory-making business. The implication seemed to be a pivot towards big-name players. He has since hitched his wagon to Chapman, Adames and Devers. Now that all three horses are stuck in the mud, he may not be able to do much more than hope they dig themselves out.
Photo courtesy of Vincent Carchietta, Imagn Images
Check Out The MLBTR Newsletter!
We’re adding new features to the MLBTR newsletter! We want to make this weekday email more than just a place for articles that are already on the website. Moving forward, the newsletter will include original content, opportunities to win premium access, highlights from the MLBTR community, and more.
Here are a few new items to look out for as we expand the newsletter’s scope…
- Front Office Fridays – enter to win a FREE Front Office subscription
- On This Date – our version of Throwback Thursday, a look at historical transactions from a certain date
- Top Comment – a weekly shoutout of a user with the most popular/engaging comment
- Award Rankings – a weekly recap of season-long awards, with a top 3 ranking
Become a bigger part of the MLBTR community. Join the FREE newsletter!
Fernando Tatis Jr.’s Power Outage
The Padres are 36 games into their season. Outfielder Fernando Tatis Jr. is still searching for his first home run. The 27-year-old has yet to leave the yard despite hitting the ball harder than just about everyone. Tatis was slugging .305 heading into Wednesday, nearly 200 points below his career mark. He has six extra-base hits in 148 plate appearances.
Tatis isn’t going to get shut out in the home run column all season. He’s recorded 12 barrels, which should’ve translated to around a half-dozen homers, based on the rate those batted-ball events tend to leave the yard. Luis Rengifo has the second-most barrels without a home run at six. Last season, Jose Tena had the most barrels without a home run, also with six. If he continues to barrel the ball at a 12.5% clip, Tatis will get on the board before long.
Since his 42-homer season in 2021, Tatis has been more of a mid-20s guy in the power department. He has exactly 25 dingers in his two full campaigns during that stretch. Injuries and an 80-game PED suspension sidelined Tatis for all of 2022. A stress fracture in his leg cost him two months in 2024, but he still hit 21 home runs in 102 games. Even as Tatis’ combination of power and speed has trended toward the latter, he’s still been an extremely productive offensive force. The outfielder has had a wRC+ above 130 in each of the past two seasons.
Tatis has slashed .250/.320/.305 through 34 games. He’s been 20% worse than league average at the plate by wRC+. And that’s with a .337 BABIP, his highest since his rookie season. So, what’s gone wrong for the superstar?
Suboptimal directional contact
The easiest way to turn loud contact into a parade of singles is to use the whole field. Tatis had been almost exactly league average in terms of directional contact for his career. His pulled, up the middle, and opposite field contact rates have seldom skewed more than 5% off of the league norm. Tatis has upended that trend this season. He’s pulling the ball just 20.8% of the time (per Statcast), well below the league average of 37.4% and nowhere near his career mark of 37.7%. Tatis is going up the middle at a massive 46.9% clip, nearly 10% higher than league average. He’s using the opposite field on 32.3% of his batted balls, a nearly 7% jump from his previous career high (25.4% in 2024).
Using the whole field isn’t inherently bad, particularly when you rank in the 99th percentile in hard-hit rate. Tatis has a solid .280 expected batting average, which ranks in the 82nd percentile. It’s just not the ideal path toward turning hard hits into damage.
Decline in fly balls
Tatis isn’t just spraying the ball more than ever. He’s also hitting it on the ground at a career-high 52.1% rate. Tatis has typically leaned slightly higher than average on grounders, but his lifetime mark was only a couple of percentage points above the league average of 44.2%. Tatis still provided plenty of power with a 49.0% groundball rate in 2025, which was a career-high at the time. He posted a sub-20% line drive rate for the first time as a big leaguer, but his fly ball rate remained intact last season.
The jump in groundballs has come at the expense of fly balls this year. Tatis’ line drive rate is up to 28.1%, the best of his career. He’s trimmed his pop-up rate to 3.1%. But Tatis is lifting the ball at just a 16.7% clip, a 9% drop from his career average, and well below the leaguewide mark of 24.1%. He’s also pulling the ball in the air at a career-low 5.2% rate. It’s the eighth-lowest mark among qualified hitters. The bottom 10 in pulled air rate is littered with no-power speedsters like Victor Scott II, Chandler Simpson, Jake Mangum, and Luisangel Acuna. It’s not the kind of group you want to be in, particularly as a high-impact offensive contributor.
Bump in strikeouts
Tatis entered the league with a swing-and-miss issue. He had a strikeout rate near 30% with a concerning 67.1% contact rate as a rookie. Even during the massive 2021 season, when he finished third in NL MVP voting, Tatis struck out at a bloated 28.0% rate. He had the fifth-lowest contact rate among qualified hitters. While the power has ticked down in recent seasons, Tatis has also made more contact. He was in the low-20s for strikeout rate in 2023 and 2024. The 2025 campaign saw him punch out at just a 18.7% clip.
The strikeout rate has jumped back up to 25.0% in 2026. Tatis’ called strike + swinging strike rate is at 26.9%, his highest since 2021. His whiff rate is above 30% for the first time in three seasons. These numbers are in line with the first three seasons of Tatis’ career, but he was a premier power bat in those years.
Now what?
The Padres handed Tatis a 14-year, $340MM extension heading into the 2021 season. It gets more expensive the longer it goes. Tatis will be making $36MM a year from 2029 through 2032. He’s generally been worth the money up to this point, lost 2022 season aside. Tatis has been a 5+ WAR player (per Baseball Reference) in 2021, 2023, and 2025. He has two Gold Gloves for his splendid work in right field, and he’s chipped in some additional defensive value by playing second base this year. It’d be nice if he hit more like a corner outfielder than a second baseman.
Tatis appears to be himself from a physical perspective. His bat speed remains elite at 74.6 mph, and his fast swing rate is higher than ever (51.1%). His stance is a bit more closed, and he’s standing slightly further back from the plate, but he hasn’t made any massive changes with his setup. Tatis’ intercept point is much closer to the plate than normal, which explains the change in contact direction. His sprint speed is right in line with the past couple of years. He’s not broken. He’s just been the worst parts of his previous selves in 2026.
Photo courtesy of David Frerker, Imagn Images
Randy Vásquez’s Hot Start Could Be Huge For The Padres
Rotation depth has been an issue for the Padres for years and the most recent offseason didn’t do much to inspire confidence that 2026 would be an exception. So far, the starting group has been passable, with Randy Vásquez stepping up to play a big role. That has helped the Friars start 20-13 and it could help in future seasons as well if Vásquez can keep rolling.
In 2025, the San Diego rotation was middling. Overall, their starters had a 4.07 earned run average, putting them 16th out of the 30 major league clubs. At the trade deadline, they sent out some depth. They flipped Stephen Kolek and Ryan Bergert to the Royals in the Freddy Fermin trade. Braden Nett and Henry Baez went to the Athletics in the Mason Miller deal. At the end of the season, they lost Dylan Cease and Michael King to free agency. Yu Darvish required elbow surgery in November, wiping out his 2026 season.
They were able to re-sign King but Cease departed for the Blue Jays. The hope was that King, Nick Pivetta and Joe Musgrove could be a solid trio at the front of the 2026 rotation. That would leave two spots open for guys like Vásquez, Walker Buehler, Germán Márquez, Matt Waldron and JP Sears.
That latter group has been leaned on harder than the Padres would have liked. Musgrove hasn’t yet made an appearance this season. He underwent Tommy John surgery late in 2024 and missed the entire 2025 campaign. Getting back in the mix for the start of 2026 was a reasonable expectation but he has hit some setbacks and his timeline is unclear. Pivetta made four starts before he joined Musgrove on the IL. Pivetta has a flexor strain and will probably miss a few months.
As of a few weeks ago, there wasn’t much reason to expect Vásquez to separate himself from the rest of the pack. He did post a 3.84 ERA in 2025, but not in any kind of sustainable way. He only struck out 13.7% of batters faced last year, which isn’t just well shy of average — it was one of the worst marks in baseball. Among pitchers with 130 innings pitched last year, only Antonio Senzatela and Erick Fedde were lower than Vásquez in that category. Both of those pitchers had ERAs well north of 5.00 and lost their rotation jobs last year.
The same likely would have happened to Vásquez if not for good luck. For one thing, he still had options, meaning the Padres could send him to the minors. Though his ERA was good, he did get optioned a few times last year, suggesting the Padres weren’t overly confident in his results. His .261 batting average on balls in play and 77.4% strand rate were both to the fortunate side. Measures like his 4.85 FIP and his 5.43 SIERA suggested his respectable ERA was a mirage.
It would not have been a surprise if Vásquez came out and posted an ERA around 5.00 or 6.00 this year. Since he’s now out of options, his roster spot might have even been in jeopardy. Instead, he’s gone completely in the other direction.
Vásquez has a 2.94 ERA through six starts. Not only that, but this feels more real. His strikeout rate is way up to 24.8% so far this year, almost double where he was at last year. His walk rate and ground ball rate have held around league average. There is still a bit of good luck, as Vásquez currently has an 81.5% strand rate, but his 3.44 FIP and 3.71 SIERA suggest he would be getting solid results even with more neutral luck.
This is still a fairly small sample of work but it’s encouraging that it corresponds to a change in his arsenal, led by improvements with his four-seam fastball. Vásquez is throwing the pitch 31.2% of the time so far this year, a notable jump from last year’s 21% usage. The pitch is averaging 94.8 miles per hour, more than a full mile higher than last year’s 93.5 mph. His spin rate on the pitch is up, and he’s getting more movement on it as well. He has also thrown more cutters, curveballs, changeups and sliders, at the expense of his sinker and sweeper.
Time will tell if Vásquez can keep this going over a larger sample. For now, it has cemented him in the rotation. Griffin Canning just returned from the injured list over the weekend and there was never a question about Vásquez being bumped out, as he and King are seen as the two locks of the rotation for now. Rather, speculation circled around the Buehler, Waldron and Márquez trio, with Márquez eventually placed on the IL as the move for Canning. Lucas Giolito will be in the mix soon as well, but Vásquez won’t be at risk of losing his spot at that point either.
In the longer term, it would also be tremendous for the Padres if Vásquez can be a viable big league starter, even a back-end one. He can still be controlled for four seasons after the current campaign. It’s possible he’ll be a Super Two guy, as his service count of 1.129 will put him right in the middle of previous cutoffs. But even as his salary creeps up via arbitration, it’ll be solid value if he’s got an ERA somewhere in the 3.00s.
The long-term San Diego rotation will still have question marks. King is signed through 2028 but has opt-outs after each season in his deal. If he pitches well, he’ll head to free agency. If he is hurt or not performing and decides not to opt out, that means he’ll be paid above his market value. It’s a similar situation for Pivetta, who is also signed through 2028 with opt-outs after this year and next. Musgrove is currently a question mark. Even if he is able to come back and be his old self, he is only signed through 2027. Giolito, Canning, Buehler and Márquez are all impending free agents. Three of those guys have mutual options for 2027 but it’s been over a decade since one of those provisions was triggered by both sides. Waldron has the same window of club control as Vásquez but he’s out of options and not putting up good numbers, so he may not even last much longer on the roster.
The farm isn’t likely to provide solutions in the near term, as the Friars have been aggressively trading from their pipeline to keep the major league roster in good shape. They now have one of the worst farm systems in the league. Sears is on the 40-man but he had an ERA over 5.00 in the majors last year and is at 7.00 in Triple-A so far in 2026. He’ll be out of options next year. The club’s top starting pitching prospects are Kash Mayfield, Miguel Mendez and Kruz Schoolcraft. Mendez hasn’t yet reached Triple-A and has only made ten Double-A starts so far. Mayfield is in High-A, Schoolcraft in Low-A.
It seems fair to expect the Padres to be looking for free agent starting pitching in future offseasons. Perhaps the incoming ownership group will greenlight some extra spending to bolster the staff, but there are no guarantees about how they’ll spend. Having Vásquez securely in a rotation spot, even if it’s not at the front end, will make the front office’s job much easier as they steer the club into the future.
Photo courtesy of David Frerker, Imagn Images
Kazuma Okamoto Is Settling In Nicely For The Blue Jays
Kazuma Okamoto signed a four-year, $60MM deal with the Blue Jays this offseason after a long tenure as one of Japan’s top sluggers. Compared to Munetaka Murakami and Tatsuya Imai, whose deals with the White Sox and Astros were well below industry expectations, Okamoto’s contract was roughly in line with MLBTR’s four-year, $64MM prediction. Early into his major league career, the third baseman is proving to be a capable hitter.
Okamoto was best known for his power during his tenure with the Yomiuri Giants of Nippon Professional Baseball. He hit a total of 247 home runs from 2018-25, including 30 or more in every season from 2018-23. Impressively, Okamoto achieved this while also striking out at rates that would be much better than average by MLB standards. He did not strike out more than 18.8% of the time in every season from 2020-25, and he walked and struck out at even 11.3% rates in 2025.
Some adjustment was expected as Okamoto transitioned to the Majors. Even in that context, he was generally expected to be a solid hitter with better-than-average contact and power, plus serviceable defense at the hot corner. The early returns have been decent. Through his first 128 plate appearances, Okamoto has batted .228/.313/.430 with seven home runs and a 107 wRC+. His 29.7% strikeout rate is higher than the Jays would like, but Okamoto is also walking at a 10.9% clip and outpacing the league-average .320 wOBA by 11 points. Put simply, he could stand to make more contact, but he’s getting on base and doing enough damage on contact to make up for it.
Okamoto is also quieting concerns about his struggles against high-velocity pitching. As noted by FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen, Okamoto was inconsistent against fastballs thrown at 94 MPH or higher in Japan. That has not been the case in 2026. Per Statcast, Okamoto is batting .303/.361/.636 against four-seamers 94 MPH and above, with a .428 wOBA in those plate appearances. For comparison, the league output against 94 MPH+ four-seamers is .233/.333/.398 with a .330 wOBA.
That Okamoto is adapting so well to high-velocity pitching is great news for Toronto. The 29-year-old was their main offensive addition in a winter that saw Bo Bichette leave for the Mets and Kyle Tucker spurn the club’s $350MM offer for a short-term pact with the Dodgers. The net result was swapping Bichette for Okamoto, creating some downside risk for what was a Top-5 offense in the Majors in 2025. So far this year, the Jays’ offense is a Bottom-10 unit with a 92 wRC+. That is no fault of Okamoto, as he and Ernie Clement (108 wRC+) are the team’s only above-average hitters other than Guerrero. When you also consider that Okamoto has held his own on defense, he looks like a perfectly fine all-around player.
With Murakami dominating at the plate for the White Sox, Okamoto’s output may feel underwhelming by comparison. That said, he doesn’t need to be an otherworldly hitter to live up to his deal, even with his track record from NPB. By most estimates, Okamoto’s $15MM average annual salary is equivalent to 1.5-2 WAR – i.e., a decent regular rather than an All-Star. So far, he is hitting for power and providing serviceable defense, as he was expected to. There is room to grow, namely by cutting back on strikeouts and hitting non-four seam fastballs, against which Okamoto is hitting just .069/.182/.069. Overall, given the size of his contract and who he is replacing in the lineup, Okamoto has been about as valuable as could be expected.
Photo courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn, Imagn Images
Checking In On Hitters Who Accepted Qualifying Offers
Out of 13 players who received the qualifying offer this winter, four chose to accept. There were two hitters in that group: Trent Grisham and Gleyber Torres. Grisham was coming off a career-best year with the Yankees, in which he hit 34 home runs and tallied a 129 wRC+ even as his defense regressed. Meanwhile, Torres posted a 113 wRC+ for the Tigers in 2025 and earned his third career All-Star nomination, rebounding nicely from an underwhelming final year in New York. In the end, both opted to remain with their clubs, locking in a $22.025MM salary for 2026 and setting themselves up for a return trip to free agency after the season.
Today, we’ll take a look at how Grisham and Torres have performed in 2026 and whether they will live up to their qualifying offers.
Yankees: Trent Grisham
Grisham was a below-average hitter from 2022-24, as he struggled to make enough contact or take advantage of his power. He continued to provide value as a center fielder, earning 11 Defensive Runs Saved and 22 Outs Above Average in that three-year span. That made Grisham’s performance in 2025 all the more surprising. For the first time in a full season, he was a well above average hitter, while his defense regressed from being an asset to a liability (-11 DRS and -2 OAA). There were reasons to believe Grisham’s offense could stick. Behind the surface-level numbers, he posted career-highs in average exit velocity (91.1 MPH) and hard-hit rate (46.4%), in addition to cutting back slightly on strikeouts. If he could repeat as an above-average hitter, he would be a top center fielder in the game, even if his defense didn’t fully recover.
The early returns in 2026 have been underwhelming. Grisham’s .155/.297/.320 line through 118 plate appearances amounts to just a 79 wRC+ He is walking more and striking out less than 20% of the time, but his contact and power are lagging behind last year’s numbers. The Yankees aren’t sounding the alarm, though. As ugly as that batting average is, Grisham also been incredibly unlucky. He is batting just .151 on balls in play, which is more than 100 points below his career .259 mark. His expected batting average (.220) and expected slugging (.430) are also significantly higher than his actual numbers, so it’s likely that Grisham will improve as he gets more reps.
Beyond his output, the Yankees are also happy just to have continuity in their outfield. Jasson Dominguez was merely fine at the plate last year, though his defense remains a question mark long-term. He started this year in the minors and only returned for a few games before landing on the injured list. Otherwise, the trio of Cody Bellinger, Grisham, and Aaron Judge was one of the league’s best outfield trios last year, so it made sense to run it back. The club is hoping for more out of Grisham this year than what he’s provided so far, but the underlying metrics point to at least average offense as the season goes on. All things considered, the 2026 version of Grisham might be a solid center fielder, if not the force he was last year.
Tigers: Gleyber Torres
Torres improved his strikeout and walk rates from 2024 to 2025, while his power remained roughly the same. The incremental improvements brought his wRC+ from 105 to 113, making Torres one of the better hitting second basemen in the Majors. Defensively, Torres’ -4 DRS and -4 OAA at second base were in line with expectations, as he’s always been a below-average fielder. His defense will be a larger concern as he ages, but on a one-year, $15MM prove-it deal, the Tigers could afford it given Torres’ value on offense.
The jump from $15MM to $22.025MM wasn’t as drastic as Grisham’s salary increase (+$17.025MM) for the Yankees. From that lens, Torres was better positioned to provide value for the Tigers if he simply repeated last year’s output. So far in 2026, he has been slightly above average, but a step down from his 2025 numbers. To his credit, Torres is walking at a 17.6% clip and only striking out 15.5% of the time. However, that’s been undone by a drop in power. His isolated slugging is sitting at .070, a steep decline from last year’s mark of .132. Torres gets on base at a .380 clip, which mitigates the power drop somewhat, but he also doesn’t make enough contact to fully overcome it.
This performance isn’t entirely unexpected when viewed in context with Torres’ second-half numbers from 2025. After hitting over 40% better than average in May and June, he was roughly average in July (102 wRC+), then below average in August (94 wRC+) and September/October (82 wRC+). Torres was playing through pain and underwent surgery for a sports hernia in October, which partly explains the second-half decline. His average exit velocity is down to just 83.3 MPH in 2026, so it’s possible Torres is still dealing with the effects of a disrupted offseason and will need longer to get going. For now, he is getting on base enough to remain above average, and the club will bank on a full return to form the further away he gets from the surgery.
Photo courtesy of Vincent Carchietta, Imagn Images