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Trade Deadline Outlook: Minnesota Twins

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The Twins are one of several "bubble" teams around the league who likely don't know yet whether they'll buy, sell, or do some combination of both prior to the July 31 trade deadline. It's been a season of peaks and valleys for a Twins club that started 4-11 before rallying with a 13-game winning streak and then floundering through a 9-18 June not long after losing their ace for upwards of three months.

Minnesota is a fascinating team to watch, as the Twins would have some very interesting rentals if they opt to sell but also have a deep and talented farm system if they decide to push for contention. They're four games out of a Wild Card spot and open the second half with series against the Rockies, Dodgers and Nationals. All of the uncertainty with regard to the deadline comes against a backdrop of an ownership group that has cut payroll over the past 24 months as they explore a potential sale of the team.

Record: 47-49 (Playoff probability 23.6%, per FanGraphs)

Other series entries available here.

Buy Mode

Potential needs: Starting pitching, backup catcher, another bat, another reliever

Through early June, the Twins ranked among the game's best pitching staffs. Minnesota pitchers led the majors in walk rate, K-BB%, fWAR and SIERA while ranking top-five in strikeout rate, ERA and FIP. Top starter Pablo Lopez went down with a strained teres major muscle on June 3, and the pitching staff quickly began to unravel. Prospect Zebby Matthews hit the injured list just days after Lopez, though he's expected back shortly after the All-Star Break. Steady veteran Bailey Ober ran into catastrophic home run troubles while trying to pitch through a hip injury before finally landing on the injured list. Several short starts from the rotation snowballed and took a toll on the bullpen.

Joe Ryan is leading the Twins' staff in the absence of Lopez and Ober. Prospect David Festa has had a pair of awful starts (eight runs apiece) and seven decent ones otherwise. Fifth starter Chris Paddack has struggled. Simeon Woods Richardson was optioned after a poor stretch earlier this season but has provided a much-needed quality stretch over his past six starts: 30 2/3 innings, 1.47 ERA. He's down to a 3.95 ERA on the season (albeit with a 4.40 FIP and 4.65 SIERA).

The Twins could still use some more stability in the rotation. Paddack hasn't performed well and is a free agent at season's end. Festa and Matthews were top-100 prospects before debuting but have been inconsistent. Lopez and Ober are injured. Even Ryan, the current staff leader, missed the final two months of the 2024 season due to injury. Minnesota isn't likely to acquire anyone with a particularly lofty salary -- not amid a potential sale of the team and on the heels of an offseason punctuated by payroll limitations -- but there are still options to consider.

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Trade Deadline Outlook: Cleveland Guardians

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A ten-game losing streak in late June and early July seemed to close the door on Guardians' chances, but the club then won six of its last seven games to regain some momentum heading into the All-Star break.  Cleveland doesn't play a single opponent with a winning record between now and July 31, so it certainly seems possible that the Guards can bank some more wins and put themselves more firmly back into the Wild Card race.  The Tigers' big lead in the AL Central likely makes that Cleveland's only path to the postseason, and 4.5 games and five other teams stand between the Guardians and the Mariners for the final AL card berth.

The Guardians are one of the more on-the-fence teams in baseball at the moment, and yet regardless of what happens between now and the July 31 deadline, the most probable scenario is that Cleveland will dip a toe in both the buying and selling directions.  If the club is still treading water by the deadline, some additions could still be made, even if they're perhaps more aimed towards reloading for 2026 than a significant push to contend this year.

Record: 46-49 (10.6% playoff probability, per FanGraphs)

For other entrants in this series, see this post.

Sell Mode + Potential Trade Chips

Impending free agents: Carlos Santana, Jakob Junis, Austin Hedges, Lane Thomas, Shane Bieber ($16MM player option for 2026, $4MM buyout), Paul Sewald ($10MM mutual option for 2026, $1MM buyout), John Means ($6MM club option for 2026)

Santana could be dealt whether or not the Guardians are contending, as the team would probably love to get the remainder of the veteran first baseman's $12MM salary off the books.  Young Kyle Manzardo has played well enough that Cleveland might entrust him with everyday first base duties, and clearing the 1B/DH situation would also free up more at-bats for David Fry, who is a DH-only player in his first season back from offseason elbow surgery.

The catch here is that Fry hasn't been hitting at all since being activated from the 60-day injured list, and Santana's modest 98 wRC+ still makes him one of the more productive hitters in a weak lineup.  Cleveland could look to play it both ways by dealing Santana, and then picking up a less-expensive, first base-capable player (probably a right-handed bat) to act as a complement to Manzardo.  Prospect C.J. Kayfus is a left-handed hitter but he could also be called up to help out at first base, as Kayfus has been shredding both Double-A and Triple-A pitching this year.

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Trade Deadline Outlook: Texas Rangers

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The Rangers have spent most of the season hovering around .500. They have as strong a 1-2 rotation punch as any team in MLB. Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi give Texas a good chance to win every time out. They have little margin for error with a lineup that has struggled to score runs for a second straight year. Assuming the Rangers find themselves in position to buy, they need to swing for an impact bat. They still have much of the personnel from the 2023 team that mashed its way to a championship, but most of the hitters from that club have gone backwards over the past two seasons.

Record: 48-49 (18% playoff probability, per FanGraphs)

For other entrants in this series, see this post.

Buy Mode

Potential needs: First base, catcher, right field, power bullpen arm

The Rangers enter the second half tied for 22nd in MLB in scoring. They are eighth in runs scored over the past month, so things have been better lately, but they're still hitting .243/.322/.387 even over this recent stretch. They're in the bottom third in average, on-base percentage and slugging for the season. There have been far too many easy outs.

This is not a one-year problem. Texas had a .238/.305/.380 team batting line in 2024. They tried to remedy that -- with a particular focus on their woeful numbers against fastballs -- by signing Joc Pederson and acquiring Jake Burger. The offense hasn't gotten any better, at least in part because both Pederson and Burger have played poorly.

President of baseball operations Chris Young and his staff are back to the drawing board. The Rangers have had by far the worst designated hitter production (.160/.241/.265) in MLB. Most of that falls on Pederson, who has hit .131/.269/.238 in 46 games. He has been out nearly two months with a broken hand and is still weeks away from a rehab assignment. They've mostly used catcher Jonah Heim at DH in Pederson's absence. He's hitting .219/.262/.346 across 280 plate appearances. The Rangers need to find someone who can draw into that position.

Only 21 players have taken at least 150 plate appearances at the DH spot this season. Of that group, Marcell Ozuna is the most obvious trade candidate. He's playing on a $16MM salary that might be too rich for Texas, and he hasn't hit well over the past two months. The Nationals would happily dump what remains of Josh Bell's $6MM salary. The ever streaky Bell was terrible in April, raked in May, had an awful June, and is hitting well in a tiny sample in July. Texas could send the Nats a middling prospect and hope to catch lightning in a bottle.

Bell would only make sense as one of multiple offensive acquisitions. The DH spot has been the biggest issue but is far from the only problem. Texas has also gotten below-average production out of catcher, first base, third base and right field. They're not going to be able to afford upgrades at five different positions, of course, but that at least gives them a wide positional net they can cast.

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Trade Deadline Outlook: Detroit Tigers

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MLBTR’s new team-by-team deadline preview series continues with a look at the Tigers. Detroit entered the season as fringe contenders, but have emerged as the clear best team in the American League and possess MLB's best record overall coming out of the All-Star break. That's been thanks to some surprise breakout performances, as well as the club's top stars playing as expected. The Tigers are one of the most obvious buyers in the sport this trade season, though with a well-balanced roster there are few glaring holes they're desperate to upgrade.

Record: 59-38 (99.0% playoff probability, per FanGraphs)

For other entrants in this series, see this post.

Buy Mode

Potential needs: Infield, center field, starting pitching, bullpen help

The Tigers have a well-constructed team without many needs they absolutely must upgrade. With that being said, there's at least some room for improvement virtually everywhere on the roster. A roster full of versatile position players who can be moved around as needed means that the Tigers can afford to be creative in upgrading their lineup this summer, and for a team with an above-average but not necessarily outstanding offense that figures to be a good place to start. Players like Javier Baez and Zach McKinstry are capable of playing virtually all over the diamond as needed, and while others like Colt Keith and Matt Vierling aren't quite as versatile, they can at least move around a handful of positions to give Detroit some further flexibility.

As presently constructed, the clearest hole in the Tigers' lineup appears to be center field. The combination of Parker Meadows and Vierling simply hasn't gotten it done this year. Both spent time on the injured list early in the season but now sport wRC+ marks of 55 and 50 respectively, although both of those figures come in fairly small sample sizes. That's especially true of Vierling, who has been healthy enough to get into just 13 games this season. Perhaps the Tigers could bet on the pair to find the form they flashed last year if given enough runway, but both hitters have options remaining and the club will surely be looking to maximize this opportunity given the dwindling team control of Tarik Skubal.

Cedric Mullins is a rental who could be available and would raise the floor for the Tigers in the outfield, with a 101 wRC+ this year and at least passable defense (though his bat has gone cold after a huge April). Mullins typically does his best work against right-handed pitching with a 115 wRC+ for his career and below-average numbers against fellow lefties, but this season he's actually posted reverse splits with a 140 wRC+ in 72 plate appearances against southpaws as compared to an 86 wRC+ against righties in a larger sample. Perhaps the Tigers would be willing to offer him everyday reps in the outfield, but even in some sort of timeshare with Baez, Meadows, and Vierling, Mullins would be an upgrade for a weak spot in the club's lineup.

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Poll: Which Team Should Be Most Aggressive For Eugenio Suarez?

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After entering the season with big expectations, the Diamondbacks have been dogged by injuries throughout the year and seen key players like Zac Gallen and Brandon Pfaadt perform below expectations. It’s left them with a 47-50 record headed into the second half, and while the front office has not yet outright declared themselves sellers, they seemingly haven’t closed the door on the idea either.

Arizona has a number of intriguing rentals they could dangle this summer to contending clubs, but perhaps the best of them all is third baseman Eugenio Suárez. The 33-year-old is in the midst of what figures to be a career year and has already clubbed 31 homers in just 95 games. As the best bat available this summer, he should attract plenty of attention. For which teams would he make the most sense? A look at some of the top options:

New York Yankees

The Yankees entered 2025 without a solid plan for the infield, and their situation has only gotten more dire. Oswaldo Cabrera suffered an ankle injury that’s left him unlikely to return to the field this year, and the club recently cut ties with DJ LeMahieu in order to move Jazz Chisholm Jr. back to second base. That leaves New York to rely on Oswald Peraza and Jorbit Vivas at the hot corner, a combination that doesn’t exactly inspire confidence. Suárez would be the perfect addition to a Yankees lineup that has too often relied on Aaron Judge to carry the load of producing on a regular basis by himself, and Suárez’s righty bat would help to balance a lineup dominated by lefties like Chisholm, Cody Bellinger, Ben Rice, and Austin Wells. As tempting as Suárez may be, however, injuries to players like Gerrit Cole and Clarke Schmidt leave the rotation perhaps even more in need of reinforcements than the lineup. The Yankees would also pay a 110% tax on what’s left of Suárez’s $15MM salary ($5.89MM as of this writing).

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs have had a strong year so far and entered the All-Star break in first place thanks primarily to their star-studded offense. Shoring up a patchwork rotation should be the top priority for this team, but Chicago does have one of the worst third base situations in the majors. Matt Shaw entered this year as a consensus top-30 prospect in the sport and may well still be the team’s long-term solution at the hot corner, but his 61 wRC+ won’t cut it on a contender. Jon Berti and Vidal Brujan have been no better offensively, so any upgrade at third would need to be external. There aren’t many teams for whom Suárez would represent a more substantial upgrade over their internal options, and adding him to the middle of the Cubs’ order to push players like Dansby Swanson and Ian Happ down the lineup would make one of the league’s best offenses even more potent.

Milwaukee Brewers

Nipping at Chicago’s heels in the NL Central race, the Brewers sit just one game back after playing extremely well the past few weeks. With Brandon Woodruff, Freddy Peralta and Jacob Misiorowski set to front the rotation and several solid back-end options, the Brewers appear to be the rare contender mostly set on the pitching front. Where they could use upgrades is on offense — particularly on the left side of the infield. Caleb Durbin has done a solid enough job at third base, but with Joey Ortiz struggling at shortstop and no obviously impactful trade candidates at that position, perhaps adding Suárez could bolster the lineup while allowing the Brewers to occasionally shift Durbin to second base and Brice Turang to shortstop. While the position fit is perhaps imperfect, Suárez would help transform the middle of a Milwaukee lineup that has seriously missed the contributions of Willy Adames this year. It’s fair to wonder whether Suárez fits the within the budget, however.

Seattle Mariners

Perhaps the best fit for Suárez would be a homecoming of sorts. The Mariners have long needed help on offense to complement their cache of young pitching talent, and this year is no different. Rookie Ben Williamson is handling the hot corner on a regular basis as things stand and playing good defense with minimal offense (.259/.294/.321, 79 wRC+).

Bringing Suárez back into the fold would transform the lineup, giving the team a second bona fide slugger alongside Cal Raleigh who could form a strong offensive nucleus with Randy Arozarena and Julio Rodriguez. The Mariners traded Suárez to the D-backs in the first place following the 2023 season — a move necessitated by an ownership mandate to reduce payroll. There is interest in a reunion, but would Seattle submit the top bid to reacquire a rental player they traded 21 months ago when other more surefire postseason clubs are in the bidding?

Other Options

The four clubs mentioned above are arguably the strongest fit for Suárez’s services, but they’re far from the only realistic options. The Reds would represent another homecoming for Suárez and have one of the worst third base situations in the majors at the moment. The Tigers — Suárez’s original organization — have gotten solid production from All-Stars Zach McKinstry and Javier Baez at the hot corner, but both are versatile and Suárez would add some more thump to a win-now lineup. The Blue Jays have a solid offense and are enjoying a breakout season from Addison Barger at third base, but he could just as easily be moved to right field to clear the deck for Suárez. The Mets have moved Mark Vientos off third base amid a difficult season, and Suárez would be a clear upgrade over Ronny Mauricio and Brett Baty on the infield.

Suárez’s elite power and ability to play a solid third base make him an attractive target for any club hoping to add a little thump to the lineup. Which team should push hardest to acquire him? Have your say in the poll below:

Trade Deadline Outlook: Boston Red Sox

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MLBTR’s team-by-team look at the upcoming deadline continues with the Red Sox. There has been a lot of drama in Boston this year and it hasn't always been smooth sailing. However, a ten-game win streak just before the break has catapulted them into buyer position. The question now is how aggressive they will be in adding to the club ahead of the deadline. With a glut of outfielders, would they be willing to use that surplus to bolster another area of the roster?

Record: 53-45 (55.9% playoff probability, per FanGraphs)

For other entrants in this series, see this post.

Buy Mode

Potential needs: pitching, first base, backup catcher

The Sox have one elite pillar in their rotation, but it's questionable after that. Even that pillar comes with some degree of uncertainty. Garrett Crochet leads the club in starts and innings pitched, by a healthy margin in both cases. He has a 2.23 earned run average over 129 1/3 innings pitched.

Can he keep it up the rest of the way? In the early parts of his career, he was either hurt or working as a reliever. A move to the rotation last year worked out brilliantly, though the White Sox backed off his workload in the second half. He had 101 1/3 innings pitched through the end of June but then just 44 2/3 innings the rest of the way, finishing at 146 frames. Whether he can get that into the 200 range and still be effective in the postseason is something of an open question.

Even with Boston counting on Crochet to fill one playoff rotation spot, they would need more. Are Lucas Giolito and Brayan Bello viable candidates? Giolito has been trending in a positive direction lately. He missed all of 2024 due to elbow surgery and then a hamstring strain put him on the shelf for the first month of 2025. Through his first seven starts, he had a 6.42 ERA, 18% strikeout rate and 7.3% walk rate. In his most recent six outings: 0.70 ERA, 25.5% strikeout rate and 6.9% walk rate.

The Sox will have to decide if that's small sample noise or Giolito getting on track after years of struggles. From 2019 to 2021, he posted a 3.47 ERA with a 30.7% strikeout rate. But over 2022 and 2023, he had a 4.89 ERA and 25.5% strikeout rate. It would be great if he's back to his old self, but six starts is still a pretty small sample size.

It's a somewhat similar situation for Bello, who missed the first few weeks of the season due to a shoulder strain. Through eight starts, he had a 3.83 ERA, 16.1% strikeout rate and 12.2% walk rate. But in his seven most recent appearances, he has a 2.61 ERA, 19.7% strikeout rate and 5.8% walk rate.

The options beyond those three are not inspiring. Walker Buehler has a 6.12 ERA on the year. Tanner Houck had an 8.04 ERA before a flexor pronator strain sent him to the injured list. Richard Fitts has some passable numbers but just 12 big league starts under his belt. Hunter Dobbins and Kutter Crawford are done for the year. Kyle Harrison isn't doing especially well in the minors. Patrick Sandoval could be a factor later in the season, but he's still a question mark for now. He had UCL surgery just over a year ago and has yet to begin a rehab assignment.

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Trade Deadline Outlook: Arizona Diamondbacks

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The Diamondbacks are hanging on the outskirts of the playoff race. They enter the All-Star Break three games below .500 and 5.5 back in a strong National League playoff field. They'd surely prefer to buy in a season where they're running a franchise-record payroll and facing a number of potential free agent departures. With playoff odds hovering around 10% and an injury-depleted pitching staff, they'll need to come out of the Break strong to give the front office justification to add.

Record: 47-50 (10.2% playoff probability, per FanGraphs)

Other series entries: Rockies, Giants, Phillies, Pirates, Astros, Marlins, Athletics, Orioles, White Sox, Nationals, Cubs, Rays, Dodgers, Braves, Yankees, Angels, Mets, Blue Jays, Mariners, Padres, Cardinals, Brewers, Reds

Sell Mode

While the Diamondbacks could still go either way, they'd have a chance to really shape the deadline if they sell. They have the best collection of rental talent of any fringe contender.

Impending Free Agents: Eugenio Suárez, Zac Gallen, Josh Naylor, Merrill Kelly, Randal Grichuk, Jalen Beeks, Shelby Miller, Kendall Graveman, James McCann, Jordan Montgomery (out for the season)

Arizona's top four rentals would all be significant trade chips. Eugenio Suárez has emerged as arguably the best impending free agent hitter who could change hands. He's already up to 31 home runs with a .250/.320/.569 batting line. It's a continuation of last year's monster second half. Suárez has 52 home runs over the past calendar year -- tying him with Cal Raleigh for third in MLB behind Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani. He's a .277/.331/.586 hitter in his past 673 plate appearances.

Suárez is playing on a $15MM salary. That could be a bit of an obstacle for teams navigating luxury tax concerns but represents a significant bargain relative to his current production. The D-Backs could (and probably would) make him a qualifying offer if they hang onto him all year, but they'd be able to pull a stronger return in a trade. It seems unlikely that they'd re-sign him to a lucrative multi-year deal and block Jordan Lawlar's path to playing time. The Yankees, Cubs and Mariners should all have Suárez near the top of their wish lists. The Mets, Tigers or Reds could also make a push, and he'd make some sense for the Brewers if they can make the money work. Suarez was plunked on the hand in last night's All-Star Game but remained in to run and play defense. Postgame x-rays were negative.

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Poll: Which Team Had The Most Impressive First Half?

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The All-Star game is now behind us, and we’re in the lull before games kick back up and the second half begins. There’s still plenty of baseball left to play, but in the meantime we’ll take stock of the state of the 2025 season and weigh which team impressed the most during the first half of the season. A look at some of the league’s top teams:

Detroit Tigers (59-38)

Entering the All-Star break with MLB’s best record is a surefire way to get serious consideration for an accolade like this, but the Tigers are arguably even more impressive than their record lets on given just how much they’ve outperformed their preseason expectations. Fangraphs projected the Tigers for a record of just 83-79, with a  sub-50% chance to make the postseason. Detroit would have to win only 25 games over the season’s final ten weeks in order to beat that projection, thanks to strong performances from surprise All-Stars Javier Baez, Gleyber Torres, and Zach McKinstry alongside the ever impressive work of stars like Riley Greene and Tarik Skubal.

Los Angeles Dodgers (58-39)

That the Dodgers have the best record in the National League is practically assumed in recent years, which speaks to the overwhelming dominance of the team Andrew Friedman and the rest of the front office have constructed. Shohei Ohtani is back on the mound and putting together another likely MVP campaign, Will Smith is having a career season behind the plate, and bottom-of-the-lineup players like Andy Pages and Hyeseong Kim are contributing. While dominance in Los Angeles is hardly a surprise, it’s nonetheless impressive that they’ve been able to maintain their high standard of play even in spite of the rising tide of competitive teams in the National League, extended slumps from both Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman, and a patchwork rotation that at points in the first half had more Cy Young awards on the injured list than healthy members of its projected Opening Day rotation.

Chicago Cubs (57-39)

The Cubs’ front office entered 2025 feeling pressure after seven years without winning a playoff game and four without so much as a postseason appearance. That helped convince them to swing a trade for superstar Kyle Tucker, who has anchored their lineup alongside breakout MVP candidate Pete Crow-Armstrong. Tucker and Crow-Armstrong get the majority of the attention, but Seiya Suzuki, Michael Busch, and even veteran backstop Carson Kelly have put together strong seasons in their own rights. A pitching staff that lost both of its top starters early has been carried by a strong showing from offseason addition Matthew Boyd. It’s been enough to put them in the driver’s seat of the NL Central, and while that may have been expected entering the season, Chicago has made a statement by entering the second half in position to nab a bye through the Wild Card round.

Houston Astros (56-40)

After getting knocked out of the first round of the playoffs last year and the aforementioned Tucker trade, the Astros were a trendy pick to finally lose their grip on the AL West this year. They’ve answered the doubters impressively, plugging along despite getting virtually no production from Yordan Alvarez—or any other left-handed hitter, for that matter. Isaac Paredes has looked right at home in Daikin Park, and Cam Smith has taken to the majors quite well despite being getting just a handful of games at the Double-A level ahead of his big league debut. The real story of the season for the Astros has been in the rotation, however, as Hunter Brown has stepped up to make himself a true ace and legitimate Cy Young contender in a season where Houston would’ve otherwise had little certainty outside of pending free agent Framber Valdez.

Toronto Blue Jays (55-41)

The narrative surrounding the Blue Jays was such a bleak one entering this season that it’s impossible to ignore how quickly they’ve managed to turn things around. After missing out on the big fish in free agency for the second consecutive year, it seemed entering the season that the questions facing Toronto this summer would be about the future of Ross Atkins as GM and whether or not they’d need to trade Vladimir Guerrero Jr. before the deadline. A resurgent season from George Springer, a career year for Alejandro Kirk, and the breakout of Addison Barger have come together to help push this club to the top of a competitive AL East, however, and with both Guerrero and Kirk locked up long term the Jays should be looking towards brighter days in the future, as well.

Other Options

While those five teams have put together some of the most impressive first halves of the season, they’re far from the only contenders. The Phillies and Mets are locked in a tight battle for control of the NL East, and the starting pitching in Queens has been a pleasant surprise given the contributions of pieces like Griffin Canning (before his season-ending Achilles tear) and Clay Holmes. The Giants and Cardinals both entered this season viewed as potential deadline sellers but have put together strong enough campaigns to remain within the thick of the playoff race.

The Brewers appeared to be a question mark after losing Willy Adames and Devin Williams this offseason, but they’re just one game back of the Cubs in the NL Central and might get even better down the stretch now that Brandon Woodruff and Jacob Misiorowski are contributing. The Mariners have been able to hang in the playoff picture despite lengthy absences for both George Kirby and Logan Gilbert, while the Yankees have overcome significant rotation injuries. The Rays entered the season without even having a proper ballpark and look as strong as ever even after selling off key pieces like Paredes and Tyler Glasnow in recent years.

With so many strong performances in the first half, which team was the most impressive? Have your say in the poll below:

Trade Deadline Outlook: Milwaukee Brewers

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MLBTR’s team-by-team look at the upcoming deadline continues with the Brewers. Milwaukee is firmly in a playoff spot and should be looking to buy. However, their financial restraints and apparent surplus of starting pitching could allow them to do some selling or some classic "baseball trades."

Record: 56-40 (82.9% playoff probability, per FanGraphs)

For other entrants in this series, see this post.

Buy Mode

Potential needs: Infield

As of a few months ago, starting pitching would have topped the list of potential needs, but that's no longer the case. The Brewers had a number of injuries early in the year, which spurred them to make a late-spring signing of Jose Quintana and an early-season trade for Quinn Priester. Since then, some of the injured pitchers have returned healthy while several young arms have stepped up to post encouraging results. Now the Brewers seemingly have a rotation surplus they could theoretically deal from. More on that later.

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Trade Deadline Outlook: St. Louis Cardinals

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The Cardinals reached the All-Star break in a tricky position.  With about 40% of their season remaining, they're only 1.5 games back in the Wild Card and have a real shot at the playoffs.  That's the case despite an offseason in which they did not attempt to improve the club, in what longtime president of baseball operations John Mozeliak termed a "reset."  And Mozeliak will be navigating the July 31st deadline as a lame duck, given the club's stated plan to give his job to Chaim Bloom for the 2026 season.

Mozeliak put it this way nine days ago (Katie Woo of The Athletic reporting): "I do feel like where we are in the week leading up, or the 72 hours leading up to the trading deadline, may affect how we make our decisions."  He further explained, "When we talk about all-in, I do think based on where the franchise is, based on payroll down and thinking more of the long view, we’re still trying to balance today’s success with ultimately having long-term success."

Record: 51-46 (28.5% playoff probability, per FanGraphs)

Buy Mode

Potential needs: Right-handed bat, pitching depth

Regarding the transition to Bloom, Mozeliak said, "When we get closer to the deadline, if there’s something that could impact how the future looks, clearly we’ll take a look at in a more collaborative sense."

With relative stability on the pitching staff, Mozeliak's deadline focus on the buy side may be on an offense that ranks fifth in the National League with 4.58 runs scored per game.  Within that respectable showing, however, is a team that ranks 10th in the NL with an 88 wRC+ against left-handed pitching.

Mozeliak acknowledged the deficiency but also said, "I do feel like where they’re going to be in a week or two is not a glaring hole in terms of trading deadline thoughts," given Ivan Herrera's July 13th activation and minor injuries affecting other righty bats like Nolan Arenado and Willson Contreras.

Brendan Donovan has been an everyday player, generally at second base, despite consistent struggles against southpaws over the last three seasons.  Alec Burleson, currently deployed in the corner outfield, has been similar.  Center fielder Victor Scott II has sat against some lefties in the last month in favor of Garrett Hampson.  Lars Nootbaar, on the IL for a left costochondral sprain, had been sitting here or there against lefties but often with Donovan or Burleson in his spot and Thomas Saggese getting the start at second base.

Given that Mozeliak said "I don’t think we’re ever going to take away from the guys we’re trying to see play," it may be difficult to find the ideal addition.  An improvement over Hampson as Scott's platoon partner could be one answer.  Perhaps a call to the White Sox regarding Austin Slater or Michael A. Taylor of the White Sox would make sense.  A homecoming for Randal Grichuk could work, though he hasn't played much center in recent years.  Maybe the Astros will find Chas McCormick expendable once he completes his rehab assignment for an oblique strain.

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