MLBTR Originals

The World Series looms and the offseason will begin around two weeks from now. One of the first key decisions for teams is whether to issue a qualifying offer to any of their impending free agents. Clubs have until the fifth day after the conclusion of the World Series to make QO decisions.

The QO is a one-year offer calculated by averaging the 125 highest salaries in MLB. This year’s price is $22.025MM. Players who receive the QO have around two weeks to get an early feel for the market before deciding whether to accept. If they do, they cannot be traded without their consent until at least June 15 of the following season — as is the case for any MLB free agent who signs a major league deal.

If the player rejects and signs elsewhere, his former team would receive draft compensation. The signing club would forfeit a pick (or picks) and potentially international signing bonus space. The compensation and penalties vary depending on teams’ revenue sharing and luxury tax statuses. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently examined what each team would receive if they lose a qualified free agent, and the penalties they’d pay to sign one.

Yesterday, MLBTR looked at a relatively light class of expected recipients on the position player side. There’s more intrigue with the pitching, which could feature a handful of borderline cases depending on option decisions and health questions.

No-Doubters

• Dylan Cease (Padres)
• Edwin Díaz (Mets)
• Ranger Suárez (Phillies)
• Framber Valdez (Astros)

This group is straightforward. Valdez and Suárez should easily land nine-figure contracts. Cease will probably begin the offseason with a nine-figure ask of his own based on his durability, plus stuff, and excellent strikeout potential. His 4.55 ERA and general inefficiency in the second half might prevent him from cashing in to that level, but he’d at least be able to command a two- or three-year deal with opt-outs even if his market doesn’t materialize as hoped. There’s no reason for him to accept a one-year deal.

Díaz is expected to opt out of the remaining two years and $38MM on his contract. He wouldn’t do that only to accept a one-year offer at $22MM. He’ll decline the qualifying offer and could look for a four-year deal that pays around $20MM annually.

Likely Recipients

• Zac Gallen (Diamondbacks)
• Michael King (Padres)
• Brandon Woodruff (Brewers)

All of these pitchers seem like comfortable recipients as well, though it’s not 100% certain they’d each decline as the top tier would. Gallen had an up-and-down season that concluded with a 4.83 earned run average over 192 innings. His 21.5% strikeout rate was the lowest of his career, and he struggled with the home run ball for the first time in four seasons. It’s not an encouraging walk year, but he’s only 30 years old and is a few months removed from having a case for a $150MM contract. While he’s not going to get there now, he should be able to land a two-year deal with an opt-out if no team is willing to pay nine figures.

King and Woodruff would’ve been locks to reject the QO had they finished the season at full stride. King missed a couple months with a pesky nerve injury in his throwing shoulder, then lost a few weeks to a knee issue. He returned in the middle of September but didn’t make it beyond five innings in any of his final four starts. The Padres carried him on the playoff roster but had pushed him far enough down the depth chart that they turned to a diminished Yu Darvish to start an elimination game while keeping King in the bullpen. It’s still likely that he’ll decline the qualifying offer and command a multi-year deal, but it’s an uphill battle to the nine-figure money that once seemed to be in the cards.

Woodruff finished the season on the injured list with a lat strain. He’d missed all of 2024 and the first half of this past season rehabbing from a shoulder surgery. In between, he was one of the best pitchers on the planet. He turned in a 3.20 ERA with a 32% strikeout rate across 12 starts. Teams are always on the hunt for playoff-caliber starters, and Woodruff certainly has that kind of ceiling. The durability questions and his age (33 in February) are likely to keep him at two or three years, but he should command a multi-year contract that pays at or above the qualifying offer price.

Borderline Calls

• Jack Flaherty (Tigers)

Flaherty has a $20MM player option. He’ll only become a free agent if he believes he’s going to beat that on the open market. Would he decline the option just to accept a qualifying offer for an extra $2MM if the Tigers offered it? That seems unlikely but isn’t impossible. He’d have the approximate two-week window after receiving the QO to gauge the market, and if he’s not finding the kind of early interest he’d hope, it could make sense to accept the offer.

The Tigers would need to decide whether it’s worthwhile to take that chance. Flaherty is coming off a middling 4.64 ERA but took the ball 31 times and struck out 27.6% of opponents. There are some similarities to where Nick Pivetta was at this time last year: a reliable source of innings with a plus strikeout/walk profile but concerns about his home run tendency. It was a little surprising that the Red Sox made Pivetta a qualifying offer and even more so that he turned it down. That gamble ended up netting the Sox the #75 pick in the draft. The Tigers, as revenue sharing recipients, would get a pick after the first round if Flaherty declines a QO and still pulls a $50MM+ guarantee from another team (as Pivetta did).

• Lucas Giolito (Red Sox)

Giolito lost the 2024 season to internal brace surgery. He began this year on the injured list after suffering a Spring Training hamstring strain. He posted an ERA near 5.00 in May before settling in as a productive mid-rotation arm over the next few months. Giolito turned in a 3.03 earned run average across 20 starts and 113 innings from June onward.

A sub-20% strikeout rate raised some doubts about the sustainability of that kind of run prevention. Still, he looked like a reliable third starter who would do well on the open market once he crossed the 140-inning threshold to convert a $14MM team option into a $19MM mutual provision. Luis Severino had a similar profile and commanded three years and $67MM with an opt-out after declining a qualifying offer last winter. While that contract was an overpay to get a free agent starter to pitch at Sutter Health Park, a three-year deal in the mid-$50MM range is still preferable to accepting a QO.

Then came another injury. Giolito suffered flexor irritation and a bone issue in his throwing elbow at the end of the regular season. He did not make the Wild Card roster and would not have been available even if the Red Sox had made a deep postseason run. Giolito told Chris Cotillo of MassLive that there’s no ligament damage and the issue should heal with rest. Whether to make the QO will come down to Boston’s risk tolerance on the elbow.

The Sox’s luxury tax status should also be a consideration. Unofficial public estimates have them narrowly above the $241MM base threshold. If that’s the case, they’d only get a compensatory pick after the fourth round if Giolito rejects a QO and signs elsewhere. It’d fall in the #75 overall range — like the Pivetta pick — if they had stayed below the tax threshold. That won’t be known publicly until MLB releases its final payroll tallies in December, but the team surely has an idea of where they stand.

• Shota Imanaga (Cubs)

Imanaga has a complex option setup that might keep him from getting to free agency. The Cubs first need to decide whether to exercise a three-year, $57MM option covering the 2026-28 seasons. If they decline, Imanaga has the right to opt out of the remaining two years and $30MM on his deal. If both sides decline their end of the option structure, he’ll be a free agent. The Cubs would then need to decide whether to make the qualifying offer or be content to let Imanaga walk.

The longstanding assumption has been that the team would exercise the three-year option. Imanaga was fantastic in 2024 and carried a 3.08 ERA over 20 starts through the end of August this season. Then he got torched in September (6.51 ERA) and gave up six runs over 6 2/3 innings during two postseason starts. He gave up at least one home run in each of his last nine regular season starts, as well as in both playoff outings. Imanaga surrendered an MLB-worst 20 longballs in the second half.

That’s likely to continue to be a problem. Imanaga’s fastball sits around 90 MPH and he’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher. After striking out more than a quarter of batters faced during his rookie season, that dropped to a slightly below-average 20.6% mark this year. There are a lot of red flags, but he also owns a 3.28 ERA over 318 MLB innings in the last two seasons. How much has the final six weeks soured the Cubs on his future projection?

Unlikely/Long Shots

• Brad Keller (Cubs)
• Tyler Mahle (Rangers)
• Robert Suarez (Padres)
• Luke Weaver (Yankees)
• Devin Williams (Yankees)

This group gets a cursory mention largely because there’s often one or two long shot recipients each year. Pivetta and especially Nick Martinez fell into this bucket last winter. Still, it’d register as a major surprise if anyone from this group receives the QO.

Suarez probably has the best chance. He’s one of the game’s best closers and should command a strong two-year deal for his age 35-36 seasons. The Padres have been navigating short-term payroll questions for the past few years, though, and they have Mason Miller as an obvious alternative to handle the ninth inning. Even if they want to give Miller a chance to start, Jeremiah Estrada or Adrian Morejon could close. With bigger needs in the rotation and at first base, they should let Suarez walk.

Mahle had a sterling 2.18 ERA across 16 starts but didn’t miss many bats. He then suffered a rotator cuff strain that cost him three months between mid-June and September. He has battled various shoulder injuries over the past two seasons and underwent Tommy John surgery in 2023. The Rangers are cutting payroll and need to overhaul their lineup. Committing $22MM to Mahle wouldn’t make much sense.

Williams, Keller and Weaver are three of the top relievers in the class. Teams generally reserve the QO for established high-end closers (e.g. Josh Hader, Raisel Iglesias). Williams would’ve been in that group if he’d had a typical platform year, but he finishes his first and probably only season in the Bronx with an ERA near-5.00.

Ineligible

• Chris Bassitt
• Shane Bieber
• Raisel Iglesias
• Merrill Kelly
• Zack Littell
• Nick Martinez
• Justin Verlander

Players who have previously received a qualifying offer in their careers cannot be tagged with a second one. That rules out Bassitt, Iglesias, Martinez and Verlander. Teams can only make the offer to players who spent the entire preceding season on their roster. Bieber, Kelly and Littell (who would’ve been unlikely anyway) were all traded at the deadline.

MLBTR continues its position-by-position look at the upcoming free agent class. Before we move on to the pitching, we’ll wrap up the offensive group by looking at the designated hitters. Every position player technically could play DH, of course, but the vast majority of the class has been covered in one of our prior positional previews. We’ll limit this look to players who are either primary designated hitters or took at least 200 plate appearances at the position this year. Player ages, listed in parenthesis, are for the 2026 season.

Previous entries in this series: catcher, first base, second base, third base, shortstop, center field, corner outfield

Top of the Class

Kyle Schwarber (33)

With the exception of Shohei Ohtani, Schwarber is the top free agent designated hitter in years. He’s going to become the first pure DH to sign a nine-figure contract after blasting an NL-best 56 home runs and leading MLB with 132 runs driven in. Schwarber played in all 162 games and batted .240/.365/.563 over 724 trips to the plate.

Schwarber hit 38+ homers in all four seasons of the free agent contract he’d signed with Philadelphia. He’s going to strike out a lot, but he’s among the five best power hitters in the sport. He’s also adored in the Philly clubhouse, and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has made no secret about their desire to keep him. Schwarber is going to decline a qualifying offer and should be in position for a four-year contract that pays more than $25MM annually. There’s a non-zero chance that a team stretches to five years to push the overall guarantee above $130MM.

Regular DH Options

Josh Bell (33)

The ever streaky Bell alternated bad and excellent months throughout the season. He had a .730 OPS or below in each of April, June and August while posting an .860 or better in May, July and September. The end result was a .239/.326/.421 batting line with 22 home runs across 533 plate appearances. For all his inconsistency within seasons, Bell has reliably ended up as a slightly above-average hitter in each of the past three years. He should command another one-year deal.

Starling Marte (37)

After consecutive seasons of declining production, Marte had a bit of a rebound in a part-time role for the Mets. He hit .270/.335/.410 over 329 plate appearances. Marte only hit seven homers and isn’t the kind of power bat that teams will want as an everyday DH, but he can take 250-300 at-bats while playing a part-time corner outfield role.

Andrew McCutchen (39)

Cutch has signed a series of one-year, $5MM deals with the Pirates over the past few seasons. This year’s .239/.333/.367 line with 13 homers is his worst production of his three-year second stint in Pittsburgh. McCutchen still has a strong awareness of the strike zone, but he’s no longer a threat for 25-30 homers at this stage of his career. It seems likely he’ll work out another cheap one-year deal with the Bucs.

Marcell Ozuna (35)

Ozuna is the cheap alternative to Schwarber as a true everyday designated hitter. He’s only one season removed from being one of the sport’s best offensive players. Ozuna combined for 79 home runs with a .289/.364/.552 slash between 2023-24. He’s coming off an underwhelming walk year at age 34, as he regressed to a .232/.355/.400 batting line with 21 homers over 592 trips to the plate. It’s still above-average offensive output but not great production for a player who hasn’t logged a single inning on defense in two years.

The in-season trend lines were not encouraging. Ozuna hit .280/.426/.457 with nearly as many walks as strikeouts through the end of May. For a while, he looked as if he’d be one of the best rental hitters available at the trade deadline. He then went through a three-month slog in which he hit .185/.300/.362 over 278 plate appearances. That killed any chance of the Braves getting more than marginal salary relief, so they kept him for the stretch run. Ozuna rebounded somewhat to hit .261 in September, but he struck out at a 32% clip and only connected on one home run in the season’s final month. He’ll be limited to a one-year deal that might be half of the $16MM salary he collected this past season.

Jorge Polanco (32)

Polanco’s contract technically contains a $6MM player option, but he’s going to decline that and hit free agency. The Mariners surprisingly re-signed him on the heels of a disappointing 2024 season. Seattle attributed the down year to a knee injury through which he’d played that required postseason meniscus surgery. They’ve been proven right with a resurgent year from the switch-hitting infielder. Polanco drilled 26 homers and 30 doubles with a .265/.326/.495 line.

While Polanco can still hit, he’ll face questions about his defensive workload over 162 games. Seattle initially planned to play him at third base, believing that not needing to navigate the second base bag would be easier on his knee. That lasted five games before renewed soreness and an oblique injury led the M’s to use him as a full-time designated hitter for a while. He began mixing in second base work in June and played there regularly for the final three weeks of the season. He’s a long shot candidate for a qualifying offer but will likely hit free agency without draft compensation. He should get at least a two-year deal and has a chance for three.

Bench Bats

Wilmer Flores (34)

Flores got out to a strong start to the season, popping seven home runs with a penchant for clutch hits in April. He had a pedestrian .245/.315/.365 batting line from the beginning of May onwards. Flores has made a career as a versatile defender who hits left-handed pitching, but he’s essentially limited to DH and first base at this point. He only has a .228/.278/.371 slash against southpaws over the past two seasons and may need to take a minor league deal.

Mitch Garver (35)

Garver logged nearly 400 innings behind the plate as Cal Raleigh’s backup. The Mariners signed him with the expectation that he’d be their primary designated hitter, but he hit .187/.290/.341 in 201 games over two seasons in the Pacific Northwest.

Justin Turner (41)

Turner got $6MM from the Cubs last offseason to work as a veteran righty bat off the bench. He hit .219/.288/.314 over 80 games in his age-40 season and is probably looking at a minor league deal if he continues playing.

Jesse Winker (32)

Winker landed a $7.5MM guarantee to re-sign with the Mets last offseason. He’ll probably be limited to minor league offers this winter after oblique and back injuries limited him to 26 games.

Player Options

Joc Pederson (34)

Pederson will exercise a $16.5MM player option with Texas after hitting .181/.285/.328 over 306 plate appearances. The Rangers will need a huge rebound from a player who’d hit .275/.393/.515 with the Diamondbacks in 2024.

A number of teams (and their fanbases) have already turned their attention towards the offseason. Identifying free agent targets is a big part of that prep work, so it’s worth taking a look at the players who’ll be available at each position.

We’re moving to the outfield corners, where there are a couple of strong everyday guys but then a huge drop-off to the lower tiers. Ages listed are for the 2026 season.

Previous entries in this series: catcher, first base, second base, third base, shortstop, center field

Top of the Class

• Kyle Tucker (29)

Tucker isn’t going into free agency with the ideal amount of momentum. His 2024 season was truncated by a shin fracture. His 2025 campaign was dragged down by a finger fracture and a calf strain. He missed some time and didn’t perform up to expectations in the last few months before hitting the open market.

Regardless, he’s head and shoulders above everyone else listed here. Even with the recent hiccups, he’s been one of the best players in baseball for a few years now. Dating back to the start of 2020, he has a combined .276/.362/.513 batting line and 141 wRC+. He has stolen 113 bases in that time and generally been given strong grades for his defense. FanGraphs has credited him with 25.2 wins above replacement in that stretch, a mark that puts him behind only ten position players.

The injuries may create a bit of uncertainty but his record is otherwise very solid, well-rounded and consistent. For teams looking for a clear and immediate corner outfield upgrade, he’s the obvious choice. Big spenders like the Dodgers, Yankees, Phillies, Blue Jays, Angels, Rangers and Giants have outfield questions and could push the bidding up. Re-signing with the Cubs would be out of character for that club but they clearly love him, since they gave up a lot to get him a year ago. A dark-horse team like the Mariners, Orioles, Tigers or Rays could also be possible. He will receive and reject a qualifying offer from the Cubs and will therefore be attached to the associated penalties, though that will be a small consideration for a player like this.

Everyday Regulars

• Cody Bellinger (30)

It has already been reported that Bellinger will be opting out of his deal, which should come as no surprise. He’ll take a $5MM buyout instead of next year’s $25MM salary, leaving $20MM on the table. That’s an easy decision, as he should be able to top that handily. His previous trips to free agency haven’t yielded the desired long-term deal, but he should be in a better spot this time around. His dismal 2021 and 2022 seasons now seem like distant memories. That’s also true of his 2019 MVP form, but he has settled in as a solid everyday player.

With the Yankees this year, Bellinger hit 29 home runs. He only struck out 13.7% of the time, and he stole 13 bases. His defense was passable in center but above-average in the corners. He slashed .272/.334/.480 for a 125 wRC+. FanGraphs gave him 4.9 fWAR for the season.

There are some questions under the hood. The offense might not be totally sustainable. His batted ball metrics are relatively pedestrian, and he likely benefitted from the short porch at Yankee Stadium. All of this year’s homers were to the pull side. He slashed .302/.365/.544 at home but .241/.301/.414 on the road. He probably won’t be considered an everyday center fielder since he hasn’t done that since 2022. Still, he’s the best corner outfield option apart from Tucker, and there’s a big drop to the next tier. Bellinger won’t receive a QO because he’s already received one in his career and is therefore ineligible. He should get a strong multi-year deal.

• Mike Yastrzemski (35)

After Tucker and Bellinger, there’s a clear drop. Guys like Trent Grisham, Cedric Mullins and Harrison Bader may get consideration for corner jobs but the center field market is also not strong, so they can probably find up-the-middle gigs.

That leaves Yaz as arguably the best solid regular after Tucker and Bellinger. He’s been a decent player for years now. He’s not a superstar but has generally been above-average at the plate and in the field. He’s had five straight seasons with a wRC+ between 99 and 111. He has produced between 3 and 9 Defensive Runs Saved in each of those seasons while Outs Above Average has had him a bit closer to par. FanGraphs has given him between 1.5 and 2.4 WAR in each of those five campaigns.

Despite that track record of reliably decent production, his earning power won’t be huge. A late bloomer, he didn’t break out until his age-28 season. He’s now reaching free agency for the first time just after his 35th birthday. He’ll probably be limited to one-year offers, but a two-year pact isn’t totally out of the question.

Platoon/Bounceback Bats

• Miguel Andujar (31)

Andujar just wrapped up a good season between the Athletics and Reds. He slashed .318/.352/.470 for a 125 wRC+. Most of that damage came against southpaws. The righty bat slashed .290/.331/.429 for a 108 wRC+ against righties but .389/.409/.578 and a 171 wRC+ against lefties. His 2024 production was even more lopsided, with a 192 wRC+ with the platoon advantage and 82 without. In addition to the outfield corners, he also played first and third base this year, so he should find a home somewhere as a lefty masher with some defensive versatility.

• Michael Conforto (33)

Last winter, the Dodgers gave Conforto $17MM on a one-year deal, but it didn’t work out. He hit .199/.305/.333 and was left off the club’s playoff roster. The track record is still decent enough that he could find some club willing to take a bounceback flier. He oddly had reverse splits in 2025, but his career splits are traditional. The lefty swinger has a .249/.351/.460 line and 121 wRC+ against righties in his career and a .233/.318/.391 line and 98 wRC+ against southpaws.

• Randal Grichuk (34)

Grichuk didn’t have a great campaign in 2025, hitting just .228/.273/.401. Even against lefties, he had a subpar .227/.273/.430 slash and 89 wRC+. However, he’s just one year removed from posting a .319/.386/.528 line and 152 wRC+ against southpaws. Even on the heels of that strong showing, he was only able to secure a $5MM guarantee to return to the Diamondbacks, so he should be even more affordable this time.

• Austin Hays (30)

For his career, the righty-swinging Hays has a .282/.340/.479 line against lefties and .253/.301/.416 otherwise, leading to respective wRC+ tallies of 124 and 97. This year was even more extreme, with a .319/.400/.549 line and 155 wRC+ against southpaws and a .249/.286/.422 line and 88 wRC+ without the platoon advantage. Beyond the offense, Hays is considered a strong defender but has been fairly injury prone in the past two seasons.

• Max Kepler (33)

Kepler signed a one-year, $10MM deal with the Phillies last offseason. He thought he was going to be an everyday player, but the Phils mostly shielded him from lefties. He was only sent up to face a southpaw 76 times this year and didn’t fare well. He also didn’t hit righties, turning in a .216/.305/.399 line and 93 wRC+. However, his career numbers are better, with a .240/.324/.446 line and 107 wRC+ with the platoon advantage. He’s solid with the glove, but his rough season at the plate should give him less earning power compared to a year ago.

• Starling Marte (37)

Marte had a good season at the plate, slashing .270/.335/.410 for a 112 wRC+, but mostly as a designated hitter. The Mets only put him out on the grass for 65 innings. Given his age and injury history, he probably can’t be counted on for much more than that going forward.

• Rob Refsnyder (35)

Refsnyder is turning 35 in March but he just keeps hitting lefties. For his career, he has a .281/.383/.443 line and 129 wRC+ with the platoon advantage. In 2025, he was even better, putting up a .302/.399/.560 line and 159 wRC+ against southpaws. There was previously some suggestion he was flirting with retirement, but he plans to play in 2026.

• Austin Slater (33)

Slater has generally been solid against lefties in his career, but his past two seasons have been rough. Overall, he hit .212/.299/.314 for a 77 wRC+ during the 2024 and 2025 seasons. That included some league-average production against southpaws in 2025, but injuries limited him to just 65 games on the year. His career .267/.357/.430 line and 119 wRC+ against lefties will get him some interest, but his recent struggles and injuries will tamp down his earning power.

• Lane Thomas (30)

Thomas is coming off an injury-marred season. He only appeared in 39 games. He underwent surgery to address his plantar fasciitis in September, a procedure that comes with a recovery timeline of three to four months. He’s not too far removed from a 28-homer season in 2023, but even at his best, he did most of his damage against lefties. He has a career .292/.359/.500 line and 135 wRC+ versus southpaws and a .220/.287/.383 line and 84 wRC+ when facing righties. In addition to his bat, he can steal bases and play a passable center field, but his health situation clouds his status somewhat.

• Jesse Winker (32)

Winker’s a good hitter but his health comes and goes. He only played 61 games in 2023 due to back problems. He bounced back in 2024, showing enough that the Mets gave him $7.5MM on a one-year deal for 2025. However, oblique and back issues limited him to just 26 contests this past year. His track record enough to get him interest, but he’s never been a good defender and the injuries keep pushing him more firmly towards full-time designated hitter status.

Depth Types

• Mark Canha (37)
• Bryan De La Cruz (29)
• Adam Frazier (34)
• Jason Heyward (36)
• Sam Hilliard (32)
• Connor Joe (33)
• Jarred Kelenic (26)
• Tommy Pham (38)
• Hunter Renfroe (34)
• Chris Taylor (35)
• Alex Verdugo (30)

Options/Opt-Outs

• Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (32)

Gurriel can opt out of his deal, walking away from the one year and $18MM guarantee he’s still owed. He won’t do it though. He suffered a torn right ACL in September. The surgery comes with a recovery timeline of nine to ten months, putting him out of action through at least the first half of 2026.

• Ramón Laureano (31)

The Padres can retain Laureano for 2026 via a $6.5MM club option. That’s a bargain, considering he just hit .281/.342/.512 for a 138 wRC+ and was credited with three wins above replacement by FanGraphs. The Padres have ongoing financial issues but should pick up the option without much thought. Even if they don’t want to pay Laureano themselves, he’d have plenty of trade value (though it’s likely he’s their regular left fielder next year).

• Tyler O’Neill (31)

O’Neill can opt out of his deal, walking away from the two years and $33MM he is still owed. But injuries limited him to 54 games and a dismal .199/.292/.392 showing in 2025, so it would be silly of him to trigger that opt-out.

Photo courtesy of Rick Scuteri, Imagn Images

The World Series looms and the offseason will begin around two weeks from now. One of the first key decisions for teams is whether to issue a qualifying offer to any of their impending free agents. Clubs have until the fifth day after the conclusion of the World Series to make QO decisions.

The QO is a one-year offer calculated by averaging the 125 highest salaries in MLB. This year’s price is $22.025MM. Players who receive the QO have around two weeks to get an early feel for the market before deciding whether to accept. If they do, they cannot be traded without their consent until at least June 15 of the following season — as is the case for any MLB free agent who signs a major league deal.

If the player rejects and signs elsewhere, his former team would receive draft compensation. The signing club would forfeit a pick (or picks) and potentially international signing bonus space. The compensation and penalties vary depending on teams’ revenue sharing and luxury tax statuses. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently examined what each team would receive if they lose a qualified free agent, and the penalties they’d pay to sign one.

We’ll start with a look at the position players, with a preview of the pitchers to come later in the week. While there may be some close calls on the pitching side, there shouldn’t be a ton of intrigue with the hitting decisions. Many of this year’s top free agent hitters are ineligible for a qualifying offer, meaning there’ll probably only be four who receive it — each of whom would have a relatively easy decision to decline.

No-Doubters

• Bo Bichette (Blue Jays)
• Kyle Schwarber (Phillies)
• Kyle Tucker (Cubs)

There’s not much to say about this trio. They’ll all receive and reject a QO. Tucker could seek a contract north of $400MM, while Bichette should aim for $200MM+ despite a late-season knee sprain. Schwarber’s age and lack of defensive value will keep him below $200MM, but he’s going to easily beat $22MM per season on what should at least be a four-year contract.

Likely Recipient

• Trent Grisham (Yankees)

Grisham is a safe bet to receive the qualifying offer as well, though that’s perhaps more of a 90-95% likelihood than the absolute locks of the top tier. It should be an easy call for him to decline on the heels of a 34-homer breakout that is supported by impressive batted ball metrics. Even with a dip in his typically strong defensive grades, Grisham has a shot at a four- of five-year deal going into his age-29 season. He’s the top center fielder in the class.

The only argument against the Yankees issuing the QO is that they’d receive the lowest compensation as a luxury tax payor: a pick after the fourth round. If they feel there’s even a 10% chance of Grisham accepting, maybe they’d rather not risk committing $22MM and an accompanying $24MM in luxury taxes within the first two weeks of the offseason. Still, one imagines they’d happily take Grisham back on the off chance that he were willing to accept a one-year guarantee.

Long Shots

• Jorge Polanco (Mariners)
• Gleyber Torres (Tigers)

Polanco has had a huge second season in Seattle. He hit 26 homers with a .265/.326/.495 slash across 524 regular season plate appearances. His .703 OPS in the postseason isn’t great overall, but he has drilled three more home runs (including two off Tarik Skubal in a Game 2 victory in the Division Series). It’s arguably the best offensive performance of his career after accounting for the difficulty of hitting at T-Mobile Park. All that said, it’s difficult to see the Mariners offering $22MM to a 32-year-old whose defensive home is in question because of knee injuries. There’s a strong chance Polanco would accept, as his age and durability issues should cap him at a three-year deal even if he’s not attached to draft compensation.

Torres was on track to receive a qualifying offer after hitting .281/.387/.425 in an All-Star first half. He subsequently hit .223/.320/.339 and underwent postseason sports hernia surgery. While the injury offers an explanation for the late-season drop in production, it’s likelier that Torres is who he is: an above-average but not great hitter who plays a mediocre second base. He finished his lone season in Detroit with a .256/.358/.387 line with 16 homers, similar numbers to those he posted (.257/.330/.378) during his walk year with the Yankees. That got him a $15MM free agent deal. It’s tough to see Detroit offering him an extra $7MM and potentially locking that money up by mid-November.

That’s essentially it for any hitters with an outside chance to receive a QO. The only other player who even received consideration in this tier is Luis Arraez. While he still has the game’s best contact skills and is a good bet to hit .300, there’s just not enough overall impact to justify a $22MM salary. Of the 32 first basemen who tallied 400+ plate appearances, Arraez ranked 19th in on-base percentage (.327) and 26th in slugging (.392).

Ineligible

• Pete Alonso
• Harrison Bader
• Cody Bellinger
• Alex Bregman
• Ha-Seong Kim
• Josh Naylor
• Ryan O’Hearn
• J.T. Realmuto
• Trevor Story
• Eugenio Suárez

Players who have previously received a qualifying offer in their careers cannot be tagged with a second one. That rules out Alonso, Bellinger, Bregman, Realmuto and Story (who seems unlikely to opt out anyway). Teams can only make the offer to players who spent the entire preceding season on their roster. Bader, Naylor, O’Hearn and Suárez were all traded at the deadline. The Braves claimed Kim off waivers from Tampa Bay in September.

The following players project to become free agents for the 2025-26 offseason.  The player’s 2026 age is in parentheses.  The cutoff for this list is typically 50 plate appearances or 20 innings pitched in the Majors this year.

Updated 10-20-25

Catchers

Austin Barnes (36)
Victor Caratini (32)
Elias Diaz (35) – $7MM mutual option with a $2MM buyout
Eric Haase (33)
Jose Herrera (29)
Danny Jansen (31) – $12MM mutual option with a $500K buyout
Luke Maile (35)
James McCann (36)
Tom Murphy (35) – $4MM club option with a $250K buyout
Tomas Nido (32)
Salvador Perez (36) – $13.5MM club option with a $2MM buyout
J.T. Realmuto (35)
Gary Sanchez (33)
Jacob Stallings (36)
Matt Thaiss (31)
Christian Vazquez (35)

First Basemen

Pete Alonso (31) – can opt out of remaining one year and $24MM
Luis Arraez (29)
Josh Bell (33)
Wilmer Flores (34)
Ty France (31)
Paul Goldschmidt (38)
Rhys Hoskins (33) – $18MM mutual option with a $4MM buyout
Connor Joe (33)
Munetaka Murakami (26)
Josh Naylor (29)
Ryan O’Hearn (32)
Salvador Perez (36) – $13.5MM club option with a $2MM buyout
Carlos Santana (40)
Dominic Smith (31)
Donovan Solano (38)
Rowdy Tellez (31)
Abraham Toro (29)
Justin Turner (41) – $10MM mutual option with a $2MM buyout
LaMonte Wade Jr. (32)

Second Basemen

Ozzie Albies (29) – $7MM club option with a $4MM buyout
Cavan Biggio (31)
Kyle Farmer (34) – $4MM mutual option with a $750K buyout
Adam Frazier (34)
Jose Iglesias (36)
Nicky Lopez (31)
Brandon Lowe (31) – $11.5MM club option with a $500K buyout
Jorge Mateo (31)
Jorge Polanco (32) – $6MM player option
Luis Rengifo (29)
Brendan Rodgers (29)
Amed Rosario (30)
Gleyber Torres (29)

Shortstops

Jacob Amaya (27)
Tim Anderson (33)
Orlando Arcia (31)
Bo Bichette (28)
Willi Castro (29)
Ha-Seong Kim (30) – can opt out of remaining one year and $16MM
Isiah Kiner-Falefa (31)
Dylan Moore (33)
Kevin Newman (32)
Miguel Rojas (37)
Zack Short (31)
Trevor Story (33) – can opt out of remaining two years and $55MM

Third Basemen

Jon Berti (36)
Alex Bregman (32) – can opt out of remaining two years and $80MM
Paul DeJong (32)
Enrique Hernandez (34)
Yoan Moncada (31)
Max Muncy (35) – $10MM club option
Munetaka Murakami (26)
Luis Rengifo (29)
Emmanuel Rivera (30)
Eugenio Suarez (34)
Abraham Toro (29)
Luis Urias (29)
Gio Urshela (34)
Ildemaro Vargas (34)
Tyler Wade (31) – $1MM club option with no buyout

Left Fielders

Miguel Andujar (31)
Mark Canha (37)
Michael Conforto (33)
Bryan De La Cruz (29)
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (32) – $18MM player option
Austin Hays (30) – $12MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout
Sam Hilliard (32)
Connor Joe (33)
Jarred Kelenic (26)
Tyler O’Neill (31) – can opt out of final two years and $33MM
Tommy Pham (38)
Rob Refsnyder (35)
Chris Taylor (35)
Alex Verdugo (30)
Jesse Winker (32)

Center Fielders

Harrison Bader (32) – $10MM mutual option with a $1.5MM buyout
Trent Grisham (29)
Garrett Hampson (31)
Travis Jankowski (35)
Manuel Margot (31)
Cedric Mullins (31)
Luis Robert Jr. (28) – $20MM club option with a $2MM buyout
Leody Taveras (27)

Right Fielders

Cody Bellinger (30) – $25MM player option with a $5MM buyout
Adam Frazier (34)
Randal Grichuk (34) – $5MM mutual option with a $3MM buyout
Jason Heyward (36)
Max Kepler (33)
Ramon Laureano (31) – $6.5MM club option
Starling Marte (37)
Tyler O’Neill (31) – can opt out of final two years and $33MM
Joshua Palacios (30)
Hunter Renfroe (34)
Austin Slater (33)
Lane Thomas (30)
Kyle Tucker (29)
Mike Yastrzemski (35)

Designated Hitters

Mitch Garver (35) – $12MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout
Rhys Hoskins (33) – $18MM mutual option with a $4MM buyout
Andrew McCutchen (39)
Ryan O’Hearn (32)
Marcell Ozuna (35)
Joc Pederson (34) – $18.5MM player option (if Pederson opts out, Rangers can void by exercising two-year, $37MM club option)
Kyle Schwarber (33)
Justin Turner (41) – $10MM mutual option with a $2MM buyout
Jesse Winker (32)

Starting Pitchers

Tyler Anderson (36)
Chris Bassitt (37)
Shane Bieber (31) – $16MM player option with a $4MM buyout
Paul Blackburn (32)
Walker Buehler (31)
Griffin Canning (30)
Carlos Carrasco (39)
Dylan Cease (30)
Aaron Civale (31)
Alex Cobb (38)
Patrick Corbin (36)
Nestor Cortes (31)
Nabil Crismatt (31)
Anthony DeSclafani (36)
Zach Eflin (32)
Erick Fedde (33)
Jack Flaherty (30) – $20MM player option
Chris Flexen (31)
Zac Gallen (30)
Lucas Giolito (30) – $19MM mutual option with a $1.5MM buyout
Austin Gomber (32)
Jon Gray (34)
Kyle Hart (33) – $5MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Andrew Heaney (35)
Kyle Hendricks (36)
Adrian Houser (33)
Shota Imanaga (32) – $57MM club option for 2026-28 or $15MM player option for 2026
Jakob Junis (33)
Merrill Kelly (37)
Michael King (31) – $15MM mutual option with a $3.75MM buyout
Zack Littell (30)
Michael Lorenzen (34) – $12MM mutual option with a $1.5MM buyout if team declines its end
Kenta Maeda (38)
Tyler Mahle (31)
German Marquez (31)
Nick Martinez (35)
Steven Matz (35)
Dustin May (28)
Triston McKenzie (28)
John Means (33) – $6MM club option with no buyout
Miles Mikolas (37)
Wade Miley (39)
Frankie Montas (33) – can opt out of remaining one year and $17MM
Jordan Montgomery (33)
Charlie Morton (42)
Chris Paddack (30)
Freddy Peralta (30) – $8MM club option with no buyout
Martin Perez (35) – $10MM mutual option with a $1.5MM buyout
Cal Quantrill (31)
Jose Quintana (37) – $15MM mutual option with a $2MM buyout
Colin Rea (35) – $6MM club option with a $750K buyout
Chris Sale (37) – $18MM club option
Max Scherzer (41)
Michael Soroka (28)
Marcus Stroman (35)
Ranger Suarez (30)
Tomoyuki Sugano (36)
Jose Ureña (34)
Jose Urquidy (31) – $4MM club option
Framber Valdez (32)
Justin Verlander (43)
Jake Woodford (29)
Brandon Woodruff (32) – $20MM mutual option with a $10MM buyout

Right-Handed Relievers

Shawn Armstrong (35)
Scott Barlow (33) – $6.5MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Scott Blewett (30)
Ryan Brasier (38)
John Brebbia (36)
Nabil Crismatt (31)
Chris Devenski (35)
Alexis Diaz (29)
Edwin Diaz (32) – can opt out of remaining two years and $38MM
Seranthony Dominguez (31)
Dane Dunning (31)
Pete Fairbanks (32) – $11MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Kyle Finnegan (34)
Chris Flexen (31)
Luis Garcia (39)
Kendall Graveman (35)
Chad Green (35)
Hunter Harvey (31)
Ryan Helsley (31)
Liam Hendriks (36) – $12MM mutual option with a $2MM buyout
Carlos Hernandez (29)
Raisel Iglesias (36)
Luke Jackson (32)
Kenley Jansen (38)
Pierce Johnson (35) – $7MM club option with a $250K buyout
Jakob Junis (33)
Tommy Kahnle (36)
Brad Keller (30)
Tyler Kinley (35) – $5.5MM club option with a $750K buyout
Andrew Kittredge (36) – $9MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Michael Kopech (30)
Jose Leclerc (32)
Jonathan Loaisiga (31) – $5MM club option with no buyout
Jorge Lopez (33)
Chris Martin (40)
Nick Martinez (35)
Phil Maton (33)
Shelby Miller (35)
Rafael Montero (35)
Andres Muñoz (27) – $7MM club option
Hector Neris (37)
Adam Ottavino (40)
Emilio Pagan (35)
Ryan Pressly (37)
Tanner Rainey (33)
Erasmo Ramirez (36)
Tyler Rogers (35)
Jordan Romano (33)
Joe Ross (33)
Tayler Scott (34)
Paul Sewald (36) – $10MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout
Lucas Sims (32)
Drew Smith (32) – $2MM club option
Ryne Stanek (34)
Chris Stratton (35)
Hunter Strickland (37)
Robert Suarez (35) – two-year, $16MM player option for 2026-27
Erik Swanson (32)
Lou Trivino (34)
Jose Ureña (34)
Luke Weaver (32)
Devin Williams (31)
Bryse Wilson (28)
Kirby Yates (39)

Left-Handed Relievers

Scott Alexander (36)
Tyler Alexander (31)
Jose Alvarado (31) – $9MM club option with a $500K buyout
Jalen Beeks (32)
Ryan Borucki (32)
Genesis Cabrera (29)
Andrew Chafin (36)
Danny Coulombe (36)
Caleb Ferguson (29)
Tim Hill (36) – $3MM club option with a $350K buyout
Tim Mayza (34)
T.J. McFarland (37)
Hoby Milner (35)
A.J. Minter (32) – $11MM player option
Sean Newcomb (33)
Wandy Peralta (34) – $4.45MM player option (contract also contains $4.45MM player option for 2027)
Cionel Perez (30)
Colin Poche (32)
Drew Pomeranz (37)
Brooks Raley (38) – $4.75MM club option with a $750K buyout
Taylor Rogers (35)
Gregory Soto (31)
Brent Suter (36) – $3MM club option with a $250K buyout
Caleb Thielbar (39)
Justin Wilson (38)
Ryan Yarbrough (34)

Since we just looked at what teams would stand to receive in draft compensation if they lost a free agent who rejected a qualifying offer, now it’s time to explore what each team would have to give up in order to sign a QO-rejecting free agent.

To recap the mechanics: if a free agent has played the entire 2024 season with a team and he has never received a qualifying offer in the past, he is eligible to be issued a QO within five days of the end of the World Series.  The qualifying offer is a one-year deal worth the average of the salaries of the top 125 highest-paid players in the majors, and this winter, the QO is worth $22.025MM.  An eligible free agent can simply accept the QO and thus avoid free agency entirely, but if he rejects the QO, his former team is now in line to receive some draft-pick compensation if the free agent signs elsewhere.  This only relates to qualified free agents from other teams, as a club can re-sign its own qualified free agents with no penalty.

Here is the (mostly set) rundown of what every team will have to give up if they sign qualified free agent.…

Revenue Sharing Recipients: Diamondbacks, Rockies, Reds, Brewers, Pirates, Marlins, Athletics, Mariners, Tigers, Royals, Twins, Guardians, Orioles, Rays

Should one of these clubs sign a qualified free agent, they will have to give up their third-highest selection in the 2026 draft.  Since most of these smaller-market teams are part of the Competitive Balance bonus rounds of the draft, their third-highest pick likely won’t mean their third-round pick, and the situation could be further complicated if any of the teams trade from their CBR picks.  The Competitive Balance selections are the only draft picks eligible to be traded — for the 2025 draft, five total picks over the two CBR rounds were made by teams who acquired those selections in trades prior to draft day.

These lower-spending teams usually don’t splurge on bigger-name free agents in general, yet last offseason saw the Diamondbacks sign Corbin Burnes, and the Athletics (!) sign Luis Severino.  The Tigers also made a push to land Alex Bregman, and Detroit might feel more pressure about sealing the deal on a splashy move this winter since Tarik Skubal is only a year away from free agency.  The Orioles or Reds could be candidates to spend a little more than usual, with Cincinnati trying to build on a playoff appearance and Baltimore trying to bounce back from a disappointing 2025.  Seattle could also explore qualified free agents, but the M’s are more likely to first focus on trying to re-sign one of their own guys in Josh Naylor, who isn’t eligible for a QO.

Teams Who Don’t Receive Revenue-Sharing Funds, And Who Didn’t Pay The Competitive Balance Tax: Giants, Cardinals, Cubs, Braves, Nationals, Angels, White Sox

For signing a qualified free agent, these teams would have to surrender their second-highest pick of the 2026 draft, and also $500K from their bonus pool during the next international signing period.

The rebuilding Cardinals and White Sox and won’t be spending big in free agency.  The same is very likely true of the Nationals, whose own rebuild period is likely to be extended since new president of baseball operations Paul Toboni will need time to evaluate (and overhaul) the organization.  Texas is planning to either stand pat on spending or reduce payroll.

Under Alex Anthopoulos, the Braves have generally been more inclined to build their roster through trades or their own farm system rather than long-term free agent deals, but Atlanta could change tactics after a losing season in 2025.  The Angels figure to be active in free agency, even if spending bigger on a qualified free agent might not necessarily be on the radar.  San Francisco signed qualified free agent Willy Adames last winter, and are again expected to at least check in many of the major free agent names.  There doesn’t appear to be much optimism that the Cubs will re-sign Kyle Tucker, but they could respond to a Tucker departure by making some other prominent signings.

Part of the equation for these clubs and the clubs in the next two categories could be what other picks they’re receiving this winter, to balance out their draft capital.  For instance, if Tucker rejects a QO and signs elsewhere, the Cubs would get a compensatory pick just before the start of the third round of the draft.  While a lower selection than whatever Chicago’s second-highest pick would be, getting another draft pick back and then losing a pick to sign a qualified free agent somewhat makes it a wash for the Cubs.

Teams In Limbo: Astros, Rangers, Red Sox

As noted in the last post, it won’t be known until December (when the luxury tax numbers are officially calculated by the league) whether or not the Astros managed to sneak under the $241MM tax threshold. RosterResource has Houston slightly under the threshold while Cot’s Baseball Contracts has the Astros slightly over the line.  Given this discrepancy and the narrow margins involved, we’ll keep the Astros in their own special grouping until the league issues the official Competitive Balance Tax numbers in December.

Since Houston were tax-payors in 2024, the Astros might have reset their CBT status if they were indeed able to stay under the $241MM line.  Being a two-time payor means an escalating tax rate, and that tax bill would keep escalating if the Astros again finished over the $244MM threshold in 2026.  Caveat: the collective bargaining agreement expires after the 2026 season, so the qualifying offer system or luxury tax system might very well be adjusted or even heavily changed in a new CBA, so a repeater-tax status might no longer be a concern to the Astros or other teams.

Staying under the 2025 tax line also means the Astros could be more willing to explore signing qualified free agents, though their tax-payor status last winter didn’t stop the team from signing Christian Walker.

As noted in the previous post, the Rangers could end up as tax-payors and the Red Sox may have ducked under the tax line, depending on the league’s final calculations. Boston seems the likelier of those two teams to sign a qualified free agent, as the Rangers are expected to reduce payroll this offseason.

Competitive Balance Tax Payors: Padres, Dodgers, Mets, Phillies, Yankees, Blue Jays

As one would expect, these teams face the stiffest penalties.  For signing a QO-rejecting free agent, these clubs would have to give up $1MM in international bonus pool money, as well as two draft picks — their second- and fifth-highest selections in the 2026 draft.

All seven of these clubs are clearly in win-now mode, so the higher penalties shouldn’t be much of an obstacle towards a pursuit of qualified free agents in most cases.  (The Padres are the probable exception since they’re operating within a narrower payroll margin.)  Since every team would prefer to keep their draft picks if they can help it, the tax payors might target non-qualified free agents who aren’t tied to draft compensation.  For instance, while the Dodgers are expected to at least check in Tucker’s market, Los Angeles could consider any number of other free agents before aiming at the outfielder that will cost the most in both contract size and additional draft penalties.

Since re-signing your own QO-rejecting free agent comes with no penalty, this could make some of these clubs more inclined to retain their own impending free agents rather than seek out new talent. The Phillies have been public with their desire to keep Kyle Schwarber, and the Blue Jays will undoubtedly be keeping tabs on Bo Bichette.

Should a club sign more than one qualified free agent, they will have to additionally forfeit their next-highest draft pick. For signing two QO-rejecting free agents, the revenue-sharing group would have to give up their third- and fourth-highest picks in the 2026 draft. The teams who didn’t exceed the CBT or receive revenue-sharing funds would have to give up their second- and third-highest picks, as well as $500K more of their international bonus pool. The luxury tax payors would face the heftier penalty of losing four draft picks — their second, third, fifth, and sixth-highest selections.

The qualifying offer is one of the key mechanisms of free agent season, as teams have until five days after the end of the World Series to decide whether or not to issue the one-year contract (this winter worth $22.025MM) to eligible free agents.  If a player has played with his team throughout the entire 2025 season and hasn’t received a QO in the past, he is eligible to be issued a qualifying offer, and thus the player can opt to accept the one-year pact and forego free agency altogether to stick with his club.

If the player rejects the QO, his former team is now in line to receive a draft pick if the free agent signs elsewhere.  Here is the (mostly set) rundown of what every team will receive should one of their qualified free agents indeed head to another club….

Revenue Sharing Recipients: Diamondbacks, Rockies, Reds, Brewers, Pirates, Marlins, Athletics, Mariners, Tigers, Royals, Twins, Guardians, Orioles, Rays

If any of these teams has a QO-rejecting free agent who signs elsewhere for more than $50MM in guaranteed money, the compensatory pick falls after the first round of next year’s draft.  (For instance, the Orioles received both the 30th and 31st overall picks in the 2025 draft since qualified free agents Corbin Burnes and Anthony Santander each signed for more than $50MM with their new teams.)  If a team has a QO-rejecting free agent who signs elsewhere for less than $50MM guaranteed, the compensatory pick in the 2026 draft would come between Competitive Balance Round B and the start of the third round, which is usually somewhere in range of the 70th-75th overall selection.

Looking at these teams’ members of the 2025-26 free agent class, the Diamondbacks’ Zac Gallen and the Brewers’ Brandon Woodruff are the only likely-to-reasonable qualifying offer candidates.  You could also make a case for the Tigers issuing Jack Flaherty a QO if he rejects his $20MM player option for 2026.  Notable impending free agents like Seattle’s Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez are examples of players who are ineligible for the QO because they only joined the Mariners partway through the season.

Teams Who Don’t Receive Revenue-Sharing Funds, And Who Didn’t Pay The Competitive Balance Tax: Giants, Cardinals, Cubs, Braves, Nationals, Angels, White Sox

For these teams, their compensatory 2026 draft pick for losing a qualified free agent would also fall between CBR-B and the start of the third round (regardless of whether or not the player signed for at least $50MM).  The Red Sox were a member of this group in 2024 because they weren’t tax-payors, and thus Boston received the 75th overall pick of the 2025 draft as compensation when Nick Pivetta rejected a qualifying offer and subsequently signed with the Padres.

The chief name to watch here is Cubs outfielder Kyle Tucker, who will probably command the largest deal of any player in the 2025-26 free agent class.  Chicago could also issue a QO to Shota Imanaga if he becomes a free agent, but that would first require the Cubs to decide on a series of club options and attached player options for Imanaga, so quite a few hoops have to be jumped through for Imanaga to actually hit the open market.

Teams In Limbo: Astros, Rangers, Red Sox

It is usually pretty obvious which teams are well over or well under the luxury tax threshold ($241MM in 2025), and sites like RosterResource and Cot’s Baseball Contracts do a great job of estimating the ebbs and flows of each team’s tax status over the course of a season or multiple seasons.  The league’s accounting office naturally has the full set of salary data from each team, and thus we won’t know each club’s official status until MLB releases their information in December.

For now, we’ll keep Houston in its own little category because its tax status isn’t entirely clear.  RosterResource has the Astros with an approximate tax number of $238.2MM that keeps them under the threshold, while Cot’s has Houston over the line with a $244MM tax number.  If the Astros have indeed exceeded the tax line for a second straight year, they’ll face the increased “second-time payor” surcharge of 30% on every dollar spent over $241MM, which works out to $900K if Cot’s $244MM projection is accurate.

While the actual tax bill of $900K is negligible, the more sizeable impact for the Astros would be in regards to impending free agent Framber Valdez.  The veteran southpaw will surely be issued a qualifying offer, so if he signs elsewhere, the Astros’ pick will sit before the start of the third round if it turns out that they stayed under the tax threshold.  If their tax number is indeed more than $244MM, Houston joins the next category of teams.

Two other teams merit consideration for the “limbo” zone.  Both Cot’s and RosterResource had Texas staying under the tax line, and both sites had the Red Sox over going the line, but those are unofficial estimates within a reasonable margin of error in either direction.  Since those projections were all within $5.5MM of the CBT threshold, however, that’s enough of a margin of error that the league’s final calculations might tell a different story.  Reporting from the Dallas Morning News’ Evan Grant and DLLS Sports’ Jeff Wilson at the trade deadline indicated that the Rangers exceeded the tax threshold.

The Rangers don’t have any free agents who should get consideration for a qualifying offer anyway. Merrill Kelly is ineligible after changing teams midseason, and no one else in their group of impending free agents warrants a salary in the $22MM range. Tyler Mahle might’ve been on that path, but he missed a few months midseason with a rotator cuff injury. Boston’s Lucas Giolito is a borderline QO case, plus his season-ending elbow issue may weigh into whatever decision the Red Sox make on the qualifying offer front.

Competitive Balance Tax Payors: Blue Jays, Dodgers, Mets, Phillies, Padres, Yankees

If a team exceeds the luxury tax line, their compensatory pick falls after the fourth round of the 2026 draft.  As an example, the Braves were tax-payors in 2024, so they got the 136th overall pick in the 2025 draft when Max Fried rejected Atlanta’s qualifying offer and signed with the Yankees.

As it turns out, many of the most obvious qualifying-offer candidates of this winter’s free agent class happen to come from tax-paying teams.  The Phillies have Kyle Schwarber and Ranger Suarez, the Padres have Dylan Cease and Michael King, the Blue Jays have Bo Bichette, the Mets have Edwin Diaz (who is likely to opt out of his deal to re-enter the market), and Trent Grisham’s career year with the Yankees makes him a likely QO candidate.