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This year’s Winter Meetings were highlighted by two of the game’s premier sluggers signing two of the offseason’s biggest contracts so far: Kyle Schwarber re-upped with the Phillies for five years and $150MM, while Pete Alonso signed on with the Orioles for five years and $155MM. With such remarkably similar contracts and roles to play in the lineup, it’s fair to wonder which player would be better to roster in a vacuum.
Schwarber’s case is obvious, given that he’s coming off a career year where he bashed 56 home runs and finished second in NL MVP voting. Schwarber turned in a brilliant .240/.365/.563 (152 wRC+) slash line for the Phillies this year while playing in all 162 games. In addition to his massive home run total, the slugger added 23 doubles, 2 triples, and even managed to chip in ten stolen bases. That was good enough for 4.9 fWAR and 4.7 bWAR, an incredibly impressive total for a DH who fielded just 66 innings this year.
Alonso’s offensive numbers, while certainly strong, weren’t quite as impressive. The slugger hit .272/.347/.524 with a wRC+ of 141 while also playing 162 games for the Mets. While he hit “just” 38 home runs to Schwarber’s 56, he did manage to swat 41 doubles as well. His contributions on the bases were minimal, but he did play the field in 160 of his 162 games as the Mets’ everyday first baseman. Alonso’s 3.6 fWAR and 3.4 bWAR don’t quite measure up to Schwarber’s gaudy total, but his ability to play a defensive position on a regular basis did free up the DH slot in the lineup to allow the Mets the opportunity to rest their regulars and roster valuable pieces with defensive limitations like Starling Marte.
Digging in a little deeper, the comparison gets even more interesting. Advanced metrics indicate an even smaller gap between Schwarber and Alonso in terms of offense than the raw production does, as Schwarber’s .402 xwOBA eclipses Alonso’s .385 by just 17 points. On the other hand, Alonso benefited from a career-high .305 BABIP in 2025, while Schwarber’s own .253 figure was actually below his career norms. Schwarber’s time in Philadelphia has seen him produce a 133 wRC+ that’s almost a perfect match for Alonso’s own 131 wRC+ over the past four years, and while Alonso is two years younger than Schwarber, he also lacks some of the elite power projection that Schwarber offers. Schwarber’s incredible 54.2% hard-hit rate over the past five years trails only Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani, while Alonso’s 46.7% figure falls more in line with players a cut below that tier like Ryan McMahon and Max Muncy.
A look at how both players performed in the market would suggest that teams certainly value them similarly. The pair got the same number of years. Alonso signed for an additional $5MM in terms of total guarantee but Schwarber appeared to have a more robust market in terms of total suitors. The Pirates, Reds, and Orioles themselves were all known to have made offers of $120MM or more to Schwarber, with plenty of other teams such as the Mets, Giants and Red Sox rumored to be interested as well. Alonso, by contrast, saw his known suitors mostly limited to the Mets, Red Sox, and perhaps the Cubs in addition to the Orioles. Perhaps more teams simply had an opening at DH than at first base, but it’s also fair to wonder if more teams simply saw Schwarber as a game-changing talent.
Even if that’s true, however, Alonso’s ability to field a position at a competent (if below average) level on a regular basis and his relative youth would certainly be strong arguments in his favor. Schwarber will play the final year of his contract at the age of 37 and few players project well that late into their careers. Perhaps Schwarber’s elite and unique power capacity could make him an exception in the same vein as other great slugging DH-only bats like David Ortiz and Nelson Cruz, but that’s a much bolder gamble to make than expecting Alonso to remain productive through his 35th birthday.
How do MLBTR readers value the two sluggers? If your team had openings at both first base and DH, which one would you rather have installed in your lineup for the next five seasons? Have your say in the poll below:
Each offseason at MLBTR, we take a look at the potential markets for some of the top names in free agency. We've already taken a look at both Kyle Tucker, Bo Bichette and Framber Valdez. Let's move onto star third baseman Alex Bregman, who opted out of the remaining two years and $80MM on his Red Sox contract earlier in the offseason. Bregman was ineligible to receive a qualifying offer, having gotten one previously in his career, so he can be signed without any draft forfeitures.
Bregman was a free agent last winter as well, but when the market didn't produce a $200MM+ deal to his liking, he signed for three years and $120MM (with plenty of deferred money) in Boston. That contract allowed him to opt out after each season.
Early in 2025, Bregman played like an MVP candidate. Through May 23, he was hitting .299/.385/.553 with 11 home runs, 17 doubles, an 18.6% strikeout rate and a 9.7% walk rate. He suffered a quad strain that sidelined him for nearly two months, throwing a wrench into one of the hottest starts of his career.
There's a narrative that Bregman struggled down the stretch after returning from injury. That's not entirely true. For the first 130 plate appearances post-injury, Bregman picked up right where he left off. He hit .325/.408/.518 with more walks (11.5%) than strikeouts (8.5%). His bat tanked for the next three weeks (.151/.223/.215, 103 plate appearances), and Bregman then finished out the season hitting .276/.417/.414 in his final 36 trips to the batter's box. The concept of his post-injury "swoon" is largely a misnomer. Bregman was healthy for the final 11 weeks of the season and really only struggled for three of them -- the extent of those struggles was just alarming. Unsurprisingly, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow said after the season that Bregman probably came back a bit earlier and wasn't playing at 100%.
On the whole, Bregman hit .273/.360/.462 (125 wRC+) with a revitalized walk rate and improved batted-ball metrics. His defense, even with an ailing quadriceps, graded out better than average. Both FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference peg him at 3.5 WAR in only 114 games. There’s a pretty easy case that Bregman is a bankable four- to five-WAR player, and while talk of veteran presence/clubhouse leadership/intangibles is often overstated, it seems genuine that front offices are captivated by his leadership skills and personality.
Bregman could have more demand than he did last winter. He's a year older now, but there's no QO attached to him and his plate discipline/approach rebounded after an uncharacteristic 6.9% walk rate and .315 OBP in 2024. Let’s run through Bregman's likeliest landing spots, based on roster composition and payroll outlook, and see if there are any viable dark horse candidates to bring him aboard.
Known/Likely Suitors (listed alphabetically)
Cubs: Pitching is the Cubs' primary focus this winter, even after Shota Imanaga accepted his qualifying offer and will now return for the 2026 season. However, the Cubs were in on Bregman last offseason and have already been linked to him again. The fit is clear. Top prospect Matt Shaw didn't solidify himself as an everyday option at the hot corner when handed the reins at the position in 2025. Shaw is still only 24 years old and did have an encouraging month following the All-Star break ... before cratering once again in his final 133 plate appearances (.220/.293/.373). Shaw hit .226/.295/.394 overall. He's still a promising young player, but promising young players don't always become solid big leaguers.
Luke Weaver entered free agency after pitching to a 3.62 ERA in 64 2/3 innings this year as one of the Yankees’ top relievers. He struck out 27.5% of hitters against a 7.6% walk rate and ranked 38th among qualified relievers by K-BB rate. That was a slight step down from his excellent 2024 campaign, when he posted a 2.89 ERA and a 23.3% K-BB rate, which ranked 19th among 169 qualified relievers. Still, he was generally productive during his two years in the Bronx and figures to do well in free agency.
Weaver’s performance noticeably declined following a stint on the injured list in June for a left hamstring strain. After posting a 2.31 ERA in 24 appearances through the end of May, that number jumped to 5.31 in 40 appearances post-injury. Meanwhile, his groundball rate declined from 36.4% in 2024 to just 27.5% this year, which put Weaver in the first percentile according to Statcast. His fly ball rate also jumped nearly ten points to a career-high 56.3%, well above the league average of 38.1% for relievers.
Still, teams will be interested in his strikeout ability and recent pedigree as a high-leverage arm, as well as his openness to becoming a starter. We at MLBTR ranked Weaver at No. 41 on our Top 50 Free Agents list and projected him for a two-year, $18MM contract. Which team will take the plunge? Let’s take a look at some of the options:
Diamondbacks
Arizona’s relievers ranked 28th in the league with a combined -0.3 fWAR in 2025, and their 4.82 ERA ranked 27th. While Shelby Miller and Andrew Saalfrank posted ERAs under 2.00 in 36 1/3 and 29 innings respectively, most of the other relievers ranged from unspectacular to below average. Jalen Beeks was the only qualified reliever of the bunch, posting a 3.74 ERA in 55 1/3 innings. The bullpen’s 11.2% K-BB rate was higher than only the Nationals and Rockies. Weaver, who pitched for the Diamondbacks from 2019-22, would help immensely with the strikeouts, though the hitter-friendly environment of Chase Field may be a less-than-ideal fit given his now-extreme fly ball tendencies. On the other hand, the club is known to be in the market for starting pitching, so it’s possible they could sign Weaver and give him a chance in the rotation.
Mariners
The Mariners’ bullpen was middle-of-the-pack in 2025, with a 3.2 fWAR that tied for 17th in the league and a 3.72 ERA that ranked 9th-best (albeit with half their games in the pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park). Andrés Muñoz, Gabe Speier, and Matt Brash all posted ERAs under 2.70 with strong peripheral stats, including strikeout rates above 29.0%. Beyond those three and Eduard Bazardo, the unit could use some more depth. Carlos Vargas pitched 77 innings in 2025 but was worth -0.6 fWAR thanks to a meager 16.3% strikeout rate and weak peripherals. Trent Thornton, Collin Snider, and Casey Legumina covered 117 1/3 innings in total, but all three had ERAs over 4.50. Reuniting with Weaver (he pitched 13 1/3 innings for Seattle in 2023) would improve the bullpen’s strikeout ability, while the spacious T-Mobile Park could provide cover for his fly ball tendencies.
Orioles
Baltimore’s bullpen ranked 23rd with a collective 1.9 fWAR and 25th with a 4.57 ERA. Keegan Akin and Yennier Cano were the team’s only qualified relievers, and Akin was worth -0.6 fWAR while Cano had an ERA of 5.11 (albeit with an xERA of 3.59). Seranthony Dominguez had a 3.24 ERA and a 30.9% strikeout rate in 41 2/3 innings, but he was traded to the Blue Jays at the deadline. Felix Bautista had a 35.2% strikeout rate and a 50.7% groundball rate in 34 2/3 innings before undergoing surgery in August to repair a torn rotator cuff and a torn labrum. At best, he won’t be back until September 2026. Baltimore is known to be looking for an experienced closer. A Weaver signing could make sense, given his track record of success in the AL East.
Cubs
Cubs’ relievers were 19th in the league with a combined 3.1 fWAR and tied for 14th with a 22.7% strikeout rate. Brad Keller, Caleb Thielbar, Daniel Palencia, and Drew Pomeranz led the unit in innings pitched and all had ERAs under 3.00, but Keller, Thielbar, and Pomeranz are now free agents. Andrew Kittredge posted a well-above-average 35.4% K-BB rate in 21 2/3 innings after being acquired at the deadline, but he was traded back to the Orioles in November. Beyond those pitchers, the club saw Chris Flexen, Ryan Pressly, and Porter Hodge combine for 114 innings. Flexen had a solid ERA but ugly peripheral numbers and is now a free agent. Pressly was underwhelming in his age-36 season and is also a free agent, while Hodge posted a 6.27 ERA and walked 12.2% of hitters faced. A Weaver signing would add an experienced high-leverage arm behind Palencia while still leaving room for additions elsewhere.
Where do MLBTR readers think Weaver will land this offseason? Cast your vote in the poll below:
Photo courtesy of Isaiah J. Downing, Imagn Images
The Blue Jays have been the most aggressive team in free agency by far this winter. Their offseason so far has been headlined by a seven-year deal for Dylan Cease. That hasn’t stopped them from remaining aggressive at the top of the market, however, and the Jays remain the team that’s been most clearly connected to the winter’s top two free agents: outfielder Kyle Tucker and infielder Bo Bichette. Bichette, of course, has spent his entire career with the Blue Jays and has not been shy about his desire to remain with Toronto going forward. Tucker, meanwhile, seems all but certain to depart from the incumbent Cubs for greener pastures and just yesterday met with the Jays at the club’s Spring Training complex in Dunedin.
While Toronto is very clearly involved in the markets for both players, it’s worth remembering that the Blue Jays already have a luxury tax payroll of around $282MM, according to RosterResource. Adding Tucker or Bichette and a $25-40MM annual salary to the books would push them past the highest threshold of the luxury tax, which sits at $304MM and carries with it the steepest penalties for going over. They might not be willing or able to both re-sign Bichette and also bring Tucker into the fold. If the Jays are only able to land one of the offseason’s top two hitters, then, who would be the better fit for their roster?
Bichette is the familiar pick, and it’s hard to argue with his impact on the team. A three-run homer off Shohei Ohtani Bichette hit while playing through injury in Game 7 of this year’s World Series nearly made the Jays champions and that was just one piece of the .348/.444/.478 performance he turned in across seven Fall Classic games despite being hobbled on the bases and in the field. While an injury-marred and deeply disappointing season for Bichette in 2024 soured some on his overall profile, he’s still turned in a wRC+ of 120 or higher in six of his seven MLB seasons with a career mark of 122. That he’s done all that while typically playing a generally adequate shortstop is all the more impressive.
With that being said, Bichette isn’t exactly a perennial MVP candidate. His defense on the infield has never been great and a disastrous defensive season by the metrics this year has made it all the more clear that his future is likely at second or third base. For as consistently impressive as Bichette has been when healthy, he was only the third-best hitter on the Jays in 2025. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has, of course, stood head and shoulders above the rest of the team in terms of star power and overall offensive impact, but there have been years where Bichette was outperformed by George Springer, Alejandro Kirk, Brandon Belt, Marcus Semien, and Teoscar Hernandez in the Jays’ lineup over the years. None of those players come close to matching Bichette’s consistency, but it’s fair to argue that he doesn’t offer the sort of six-plus win upside offered by many of the recent top free agents available.
That’s where Tucker stands out. The 28-year-old (29 in January) is a simply a cut above Bichette as a hitter. Tucker’s career 138 wRC+ is four points higher than the mark Bichette posted this year, which was his career-best in a season, outside of his 46-game rookie campaign in 2019. Since the start of the 2021 season, Tucker has hit .277/.365/.514 with 23.4 fWAR, a greater total than Bichette has accumulated across his entire career. Tucker is also a perennial threat to steal 25 to 30 bases, while Bichette has swiped more than 13 bags just once before in his career. Tucker’s status as a left-handed bat would also make him a strong complement to the Jays’ cache of impressive right-handed hitters, which includes not only Guerrero but also Springer and Kirk.
As perfect as the fit between Tucker and the Jays might seem, however, it’s worth considering the fact that Bichette could prove to be a better long-term investment. Both have dealt with injuries over the past two years, with 214 games played for Tucker and 220 for Bichette. With that said, Bichette is a year younger than Tucker and also figures to command the shorter (and cheaper) deal of the two; MLBTR predicts an eight-year, $208MM deal for Bichette, while Tucker is predicted to land a $400MM deal across 11 years. Paying Bichette through his age-35 season certainly sounds more appealing than paying Tucker through his age-39 campaign in terms of the team’s long-term prospects. At the same time, Tucker would undoubtedly offer more near-term impact to a team that just came just a few outs within a World Series title and has already made it as clear as can be that they’re all-in on their current window.
There’s also the positional fit to consider. Bichette could either return to his shortstop position or take second, with Andres Gimenez taking the other middle infield spot. That would leave every other position player in a similar spot to 2025. Addison Barger and Davis Schneider both played some infield and some outfield while Ernie Clement played all around the infield.
If Tucker were signed, he would jump into an outfield mix with Springer, Anthony Santander and Daulton Varsho. It would push Barger and Schneider more firmly into the infield and bump Nathan Lukes to the bench, unless someone were then traded.
Assuming the Blue Jays can only sign one of Bichette or Tucker, which one do MLBTR readers think would be a better fit for the organization? Would Bichette’s status as an anchor of the current team, consistency, and more affordable expected contract make him the better choice? Or does the immediate impact and big lefty bat Tucker offers outweigh those advantages? Or should they skip both and spend their money on relievers or a different bat? Have your say in the poll below:
Every year, MLB’s non-tender deadline sees clubs allow some of their players who remain under team control to test the open market early, whether it be due to an increasing price tag in arbitration or a need for additional space on the club’s 40-man roster. Previous seasons have seen a number of high-profile players wind up non-tendered, with Kyle Schwarber, Cody Bellinger, and Brandon Woodruff all having been non-tendered at one point or another in their careers only to this year appear on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list.
While stars of that caliber who reach free agency by way of a non-tender are extremely rare, plenty of others find themselves cut loose early by their clubs only to make an impact elsewhere down the line. That could be as a regular in the lineup or rotation or simply as a solid contributor off the bench or out of the bullpen. Last weekend, we took a look at five hitters who hit free agency following the non-tender deadline and could be worth keeping an eye on throughout the coming offseason. Now let’s take a look at the pitching side of things, where a handful of intriguing names were recently made available.
Players are listed in alphabetical order, with their age for the 2026 season in parentheses:
Jason Foley (30)
Foley is the prototypical interesting non-tendered pitcher; a reliever with quite a lot of high-end, late-inning experience who was let go after an injury-marred season. Foley made his big league debut with the Tigers in 2021 and has been excellent when healthy. Across 199 2/3 innings of work, he’s posted a 3.16 ERA (122 ERA+) with a 3.22 FIP that more or less matches those results. He’s struck out just 18.1% of his opponents in that time against a 6.1% walk rate, but makes up for it with a 54.1% ground ball rate for his career.
That’s the 14th-highest grounder rate among pitchers with as many innings as him over the past five years, sandwiched between Camilo Doval and Andres Munoz. Foley also has ninth-inning experience, having served as the Tigers’ closer in 2024 and collected 28 saves in that role. The right-hander’s 2024 season saw him take steps back in most of his major peripherals, and a 2025 season lost to shoulder surgery makes him a question mark headed into 2026. He could be a steal on the relief market if healthy and could be controlled through the 2028 season via arbitration.
Mark Leiter Jr. (35)
A veteran relief arm who has rarely found high-end results at the big league level, on the surface, Leiter looks like the sort of reliever who frequently finds himself non-tendered over the offseason. Even so, a closer look at Leiter’s profile reveals an interesting relief arm with plenty of upside. The right-hander settled into a full-time relief role in Chicago during the 2023 season, and over the past three years has pitched out of the bullpen for the Cubs and Yankees. In that time, his top line numbers are unimpressive: a 4.22 ERA (98 ERA+) in 170 2/3 innings of work looks like the average middle relief arm. A closer look reveals an impressive profile, however. Leiter has struck out 29.2% of his opponents over the last three years while walking 8.5% and maintaining a solid 45.5% ground ball rate.
Leiter’s 3.13 SIERA over the past three seasons is the 13th best figure in baseball among relievers with at least 150 innings of work, just ahead of high-end relievers like Emmanuel Clase, Tanner Scott, and Luke Weaver. The difference between those relief arms and Leiter comes down to batted ball outcomes; over the past two years, Leiter has posted an ugly .359 BABIP and a strand rate of just 66.5%. If those numbers can normalize in 2026, that positive regression could be enough to make Leiter a solid late-inning reliever. Even if not, however, it’s worth noting that Leiter’s splitter makes him very effective against opposite-handed pitchers: In 104 2/3 innings of work against lefties the last three years, Leiter has posted a 2.49 ERA and 2.57 FIP with a 32.1% strikeout rate. That gives him a higher floor than most non-tendered pitchers as a quality option against southpaws.
Evan Phillips (31)
The Dodgers opted to send Phillips into free agency rather than pay him a projected (courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz) $6.1MM via arbitration. That’s a decision they surely wouldn’t have made if not for the fact that Phillips underwent Tommy John surgery back in May and isn’t likely to pitch before the second half of the 2026 season. With 2026 being his final year under club control, the Dodgers evidently thought better of paying that price tag (and the 110% tax they’d owe based on their luxury bill) for, at best, half a season of a reliever.
It’s an understandable decision, but Phillips has been utterly dominant since joining Los Angeles. In 195 innings since being plucked off waivers from the Rays back in 2021, the right-hander has pitched to a 2.22 ERA with a 29.0% strikeout rate and a 2.77 FIP for the Dodgers. He served as the club’s closer much of the 2023 and ’24 seasons, collecting 45 saves in that time, and looked as good as ever this year before going under the knife with seven scoreless outings and a 27.3% strikeout rate. Given his combination of dominance and health questions, Phillips seems like a candidate for a two-year deal not unlike the one Liam Hendriks signed with the Red Sox two offseasons ago.
Gregory Santos (26)
The youngest player on this list, Santos has extremely enticing upside but lacks a track record at the big league level. The right-hander’s claim to fame is his 2023 season with the White Sox, where he emerged as a force in the club’s bullpen. He pitched to a 3.39 ERA in 60 appearances that year, combining a 22.8% strikeout rate with a 52.5% ground ball rate to boast a 2.65 FIP and 3.32 SIERA. Santos’ combination of youth and results convinced the Mariners to surrender Zach DeLoach, Prelander Berroa, and a Competitive Balance draft pick in a trade with the ChiSox.
Sensible as the move may have seemed at the time, it did not work out for Seattle. The righty made just 16 appearances for the Mariners over the past two years due to lat and knee injuries. His results in those outings left much to be desired as well. Santos posted a 5.02 ERA and 4.41 FIP. That’s a sample size of just 14 1/3 innings, however, and it’s easy to imagine a 26-year-old getting back on track in a new organization. A team that helps Santos return to the form he flashed with Chicago two years ago would be rewarded handsomely, as he can be controlled through the 2028 campaign via arbitration.
Jacob Webb (32)
Webb has been at least serviceable, if not better, for the past four seasons. He’s been non-tendered in consecutive seasons — first by the Orioles, then by the Rangers — despite logging respective ERAs of 3.02 and 3.00 while making at least 55 appearances for each of those two teams. Dating back to 2021, Webb touts a 3.38 earned run average in 210 1/3 innings. He was sensational down the stretch in 2025, too, tossing 13 2/3 shutout innings with a 16-to-3 K/BB ratio over the season’s final month.
Webb doesn’t throw particularly hard or miss that bats at a premium level. He averaged 93.4 mph on his four-seamer last year in Arlington, marking the second straight season his velo has trended downward. However, he was slightly better than average in terms of inducing chases off the plate (33.1%) and inducing swinging-strikes (12.5%). Neither is an elite rate, but coupled with a career-best 7.1% walk rate and plenty of weak contact (86.6 mph average exit velo, 34.6% hard-hit rate), it was enough to help Webb post a third straight sub-4.00 ERA.
Now up to five-plus years of MLB service, Webb can no longer be retained for additional seasons via arbitration. However, he’s been a solid middle reliever who’s picked up the occasional hold and a rogue save here and there. He was non-tendered despite just a $2MM projection in arbitration. Teams looking for affordable arms to fill out the middle innings on a budget should have interest.
The Giants made one of the most surprising trades in recent memory when they landed Rafael Devers from the Red Sox this summer in exchange for a package of Jordan Hicks, Kyle Harrison, James Tibbs, and Jose Bello. Devers took over the first base job in San Francisco and now figures to be locked into a first base or DH role for the next eight years. That leaves first base and DH prospect Bryce Eldridge facing some uncertainty that’s become unusual for a prospect of his caliber in the modern game.
Eldridge, 21, made his big league debut this past year to much fanfare but spent only ten games in the majors and didn’t hit much in that limited time. Eldridge tore up the Double-A level this year with a .280/.350/.512 slash line (147 wRC+) in 140 trips to the plate to start the season before being promoted to Triple-A, where he spent most of the year and posted a .249/.322/.514 slash line. That was good for a wRC+ of just 105 thanks to the inflated offensive environment of the Pacific Coast League, but Eldridge’s 18 homers in 66 games is hard to argue with. That elite power is what’s made him a consensus top-20 prospect in the sport, and any team with a hole at first base would find it easy to dream on the youngster anchoring the middle of their lineup for the next half decade or longer.
Of course, the Giants do not have a hole at first base. That’s not to say they couldn’t find a way to squeeze a player of Eldridge’s caliber into the lineup, but in order to do so, they’d severely limit their overall lineup’s flexibility by locking down both the first base and DH spots on an everyday basis. That can certainly be worth it, as the division rival Dodgers have shown with their wildly successful duo of Freddie Freeman and Shohei Ohtani. But even in L.A. there have been some clear downsides. The team’s defense has suffered with players like Teoscar Hernandez and Max Muncy forced to play the field full time at positions where they’re only passable defenders.
Is that reason enough to consider a trade? Eldridge would certainly be a tantalizing trade target for a number of teams who could be looking to sell this winter. The Cardinals seem to be more focused on adding pitching in their trades to this point, but a team like the Twins or Marlins could surely benefit from having Eldridge as the centerpiece of their rebuild, and a player like Edward Cabrera or Joe Ryan would look good in the Giants’ rotation alongside Logan Webb and Robbie Ray. The Giants have made clear that they aren’t interested in spending at the top of the market for pitching this winter, but a trade of Eldridge could allow them to land a high-end starter without adding a hefty salary to the books.
Some of this, of course, comes down to how much the Giants believe in Eldridge. His 105 wRC+ and 30.8% strikeout rate at Triple-A this year likely created some mild concerns. If Eldridge were to struggle in 2026, his value would surely fall. That could make this offseason an appropriate time to move on, though it’s also worth remembering how devastating moving on from a top prospect too soon can be. The Cubs acquired Michael Busch just 27 games into his big league career and he turned in a 140 wRC+ this season in the middle of their lineup as an everyday first baseman. Of course, Chicago acquired Busch from the Dodgers not long after they brought Ohtani into the fold. Los Angeles surely aren’t too worried about Busch breaking out elsewhere. Perhaps the same could be true for San Francisco and Eldridge if the return is strong enough. That would be especially true if recent rumors connecting the Giants to Kyle Schwarber prove accurate.
How do MLBTR readers feel the Giants should proceed with Eldridge? Should they hold onto their top prospect and hope he and Devers can become an elite offensive duo in the middle of their lineup for the better part of the next decade? Or should they deal Eldridge to maximize positional flexibility and bring in a more impactful talent on the pitching side? Have your say in the poll below:
At the end of the 2025 season, the Mariners lost three infielders to free agency, as each of Josh Naylor, Jorge Polanco and Eugenio Suárez hit the open market. That left shortstop J.P. Crawford as the only lock for the 2026 infield. The M’s quickly pounced to bring Naylor back, signing the first baseman to a five-year, $92.5MM deal not long after free agency began.
Reuniting with Polanco and/or Suárez still seems to be on the table but second and third base are open for now. What options do the Mariners have in the system at present? Let’s take a look at the possibilities.
Young is a former first-round pick, with the M’s taking him 21st overall in 2022. He came into 2025 as a consensus top 100 prospect. He was promoted to the big leagues at the end of May and primarily played second base. He eventually took 257 trips to the plate but produced a tepid .211/.302/.305 line, which translates to a wRC+ of 80.
That’s obviously less than ideal but there are some reasons for optimism. Young’s 10.9% walk rate and 18.3% strikeout rate were both strong. His .247 batting average on balls in play was more than 40 points below league average. His average exit velocity of 87.6 miles per hour was subpar but his max exit velo of 114.1 mph was in the top 10% of major league hitters. Perhaps he can tap into that premium velo a bit more as he gets more exposed to big league pitching. He hit .277/.392/.461 for a 120 wRC+ in Triple-A prior to his promotion, so perhaps his uninspiring major league debut was just a blip.
One year after taking Young, the M’s were selecting one pick later in the first round. They used the 22nd overall pick in 2023 to grab Emerson. He had a big rise in 2025, playing 90 games in High-A, followed by 34 in Double-A and six in Triple-A. Between those three levels, he took 600 trips to the plate and slashed .285/.383/.458 for a 129 wRC+. He also stole 14 bases while primarily playing shortstop, plus a few games at third.
Emerson is now a consensus top 15 prospect in the whole league. His Triple-A experience is still minimal and he’s only 20 years old but the Mariners would presumably have at least some willingness to carry him on the Opening Day roster. MLB teams are generally more willing to do that with top prospects these days because of the PPI benefits. The M’s carried 21-year-old Julio Rodríguez on their roster throughout 2022. When he won Rookie of the Year, that netted the M’s an extra pick in 2023. That allowed them to select outfielder Jonny Farmelo just seven picks after taking Emerson.
The M’s presumably won’t just hand a job to Emerson. He will have to earn it in spring. Theoretically, he could take over third base in 2026. Crawford is slated to be a free agent a year from now, at which point Emerson could potentially move over to short. It’s also possible that Felnin Celesten is more of a factor by then. Celesten is considered a better shortstop defender than Emerson but he hasn’t reached Double-A yet.
Bliss was a second-round pick of the Diamondbacks who came to the Mariners in the 2023 deadline deal which sent Paul Sewald to the desert. His 2025 season was marred by injury. First, a torn left biceps required surgery in April. He began a rehab assignment in August but then suffered a torn meniscus in his right knee. Due to that missed time, he has a .214/.287/.367 line in just 110 big league plate appearances over the past two seasons.
His minor league track record is naturally better than that. Bliss has 739 Triple-A plate appearances with a .260/.365/.453 line and 105 wRC+. He’s also huge threat on the bases with at least 50 steals in the minors in both 2023 and 2024. He has lots of minor league experience at both middle infield positions. He never had the same prospect hype as Young or Emerson but the speed and defense could make him a valuable player with even league average offense.
Williamson was a second-round pick in 2023. He generally put up good minor league numbers but with a pesky contact-based approach and very little power. He got into 85 big league games this year and hit .253/.294/.310 for a wRC+ of 76. There could be more in the bat but Williamson is lauded more for his glovework. Statcast only had him as average in the field this year but he was credited with eight Defensive Runs Saved.
Arroyo, 21, was an international signing out of Colombia and is now a consensus Top 100 prospect. In 2025, he got into 65 High-A games and 56 Double-A contests. Between those two levels, he slashed .262/.401/.433 for a wRC+ of 139. He has a bit of experience at third base and shortstop but was kept exclusively at second base in 2025. Since he hasn’t yet played at the Triple-A level, it’s probably a bit of a reach for him to crack the Opening Day roster, but he might have an outside chance. Even if Opening Day is out of the question, a midseason promotion would be a possibility.
Leo Rivas/Miles Mastrobuoni/Samad Taylor
These three are more in the part-time or utility bucket. Rivas can draw walks but has little power. He can play the three infield spots to the left of first base as well as the outfield corners. He could be on the bench but he also has an option remaining. Mastrobuoni’s minor league profile is somewhat similar but he hasn’t hit in the majors and is now out of options. Taylor has just 83 big league plate appearances and is also out of options. He has big wheels and can also play the outfield, so he could be a nice bench piece who comes in for pinch running and/or defensive substitute opportunities.
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Put it all together and it puts the Mariners in an interesting position. They are clearly in win-now mode. They just finished their fifth straight winning season. They won the West for the first time in over 20 years. They came achingly close to a World Series berth. The Astros and Rangers seem to be dealing with payroll issues. The A’s have some promise but still need to build a pitching staff. The Angels have lots of questions to be answered. The division is there for the Mariners to take.
That should arguably tilt them towards going for established big leaguers such as Polanco or Suárez or whoever else. On the other hand, there’s a chance Emerson is a future star who is ready to go. If he struggles in the spring, Williamson at least gives them a glove-first floor as a fallback. At second base, the M’s could leave it open for Young, Bliss and Arroyo to duke it out. Between the three, they would only need one of them to step forward and seize the job.
In an ideal world, a utility player who can also move to the outfield would make a lot of sense, so perhaps the M’s will make a spirited pursuit of Brendan Donovan. He could play second or third if the younger guys don’t take those jobs. If they do, he could move into the corner infield mix with Victor Robles, Dominic Canzone and Luke Raley. If that also got too crowded, the designated hitter spot is fairly open at the moment. Free agents like Willi Castro or Amed Rosario would be less-exciting versions of the Donovan pick-up.
RosterResource has the club slated for a $151MM payroll in 2026. That’s about $15MM below the $166MM they had at the end of 2025. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto recently said that next year’s payroll would probably be in a similar range to the prior season. Like all teams, they could use some pitching upgrades, so it will be fascinating to see how much of their remaining resources they use on the infield.
Photo courtesy of Joe Nicholson, Imagn Images
It’s not often that the top free agent doesn’t get much attention from the team they’re departing but that might end up being the case this winter. Even amid an up-and-down season where he was dogged by injuries, Kyle Tucker was a key piece of the team that got the Cubs back into the NLDS for the first time since 2017. While Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer praised Tucker and suggested he’d be in contact with the outfielder’s camp this winter, virtually all reporting on the subject suggests the Cubs aren’t going to pursue a reunion in a serious manner.
The team’s focus appears to be on pitching, at least for the time being. They’ve already signed right-hander Phil Maton to help bolster their bullpen. After bringing southpaw Shota Imanaga back on a qualifying offer, they still figure to explore the market for top-of-the-rotation pitching options. A deal for someone like Michael King, Ranger Suarez, or Tatsuya Imai would certainly make sense for a team that ran out of pitching in October due to injuries to Cade Horton and Justin Steele. A trade also can’t be ruled out, with players like Edward Cabrera, Sandy Alcantara, Joe Ryan, Pablo Lopez, and MacKenzie Gore all expected to be at least somewhat available this winter.
Even as the focus appears to be on the top of the rotation, however, the void Tucker figures to leave in the lineup is undeniable. The superstar delivered his fifth consecutive season worth at least 4.0 fWAR in 2025 as he slashed .266/.377/.464 with a 136 wRC+ in 136 games. That sort of production would be very difficult to replace internally, even with talented youngsters like Moises Ballesteros, Owen Caissie, and Kevin Alcantara knocking on the door of the majors. Ballesteros looked the best of the bunch in his cup of coffee with the big league club last year, hitting an impressive .298/.394/.474 across 66 trips to the plate in 20 games. Strong as that production was, however, it would be unreasonable to expect a 22-year-old rookie to replicate that over a full season.
Perhaps it would be understandable to roll the dice on those internal options if the Cubs had more certainty around the rest of the diamond, but the question marks are undeniable. Carson Kelly seems unlikely to recreate his career year at the plate (115 wRC+) from 2025 headed into his age-31 campaign. Matt Shaw began to show signs of life in the second half but his 93 wRC+ on the season was subpar. Dansby Swanson (99 wRC+) delivered his second consecutive below-average offensive season last year.
One big x-factor is Pete Crow-Armstrong. The budding superstar delivered a 30-30 season in 2025 and finished 9th in NL MVP voting off the back of a brilliant campaign, but his OPS dropped more than 200 points between the first half and the second half. Counting on the 23-year-old to lead the Cubs’ offense in place of Tucker next year would be a risky gamble. Also, Hoerner, Happ and Seiya Suzuki are slated for free agency next winter. Adding a reliable bat to the lineup could go a long way to preventing a step back headed into the 2027 season while also providing reinforcements for a 2026 team that will face lots of questions without Tucker in the fold.
The question, of course, becomes the team’s budget. The Cubs have been very hesitant to spend beyond the competitive balance tax for the past several years, treating it as a soft cap on spending. RosterResource projects them for a $197MM CBT figure in 2026 as things stand. The base threshold of the tax will be $244MM next year, giving them a bit more than $45MM of wiggle room.
With needs in the bullpen and the rotation, that could dry up in a hurry. Signing someone like Bo Bichette, Alex Bregman, or Kyle Schwarber wouldn’t leave a ton of room for pitching additions. Even a less expensive addition like Kazuma Okamoto or Eugenio Suarez might be challenge to make work if the team is unwilling to spend beyond the first threshold of the luxury tax.
How do MLBTR readers think the Cubs will proceed with their offense headed into 2026? Will they hope an offensive nucleus of Crow-Armstrong, Suzuki, and Michael Busch will be enough to weather the loss of Tucker? Or will they bring in an impact hitter to improve the lineup? Have your say in the poll below:
The Pirates enter this winter on a quest to augment their offense in a way that could allow them to contend while superstar hurler Paul Skenes is still in town. Skenes is backed by a solid group of pitching options, including veteran Mitch Keller as well as young arms like Braxton Ashcraft and Bubba Chandler in the rotation along with closer Dennis Santana in the bullpen. That deep array of pitching options has virtually no support from the offense, however; while Bryan Reynolds and Oneil Cruz certainly have the capability of being quality regulars in the lineup, only Spencer Horwitz (119 wRC+) and Joey Bart (101 wRC+) were actually above average hitters for Pittsburgh this year.
That leaves the team in need of help in the lineup, and they appear to be unusually willing to dip into free agency to get it. The team had interest in Josh Naylor before he re-upped with the Mariners and has even shown interest in star slugger Kyle Schwarber. A deal at or approaching $100MM would be virtually unheard of for the Pirates in their team history. Reynolds’ $100MM extension is the only nine-figure deal in history, and their next two richest deals (the $70MM range for Mitch Keller and Ke’Bryan Hayes) were both extensions as well. Francisco Liriano’s three-year, $39MM deal from the 2014-15 offseason remains the largest free agent expenditure in team history more than a decade later.
While the Pirates have indicated they have more financial flexibility than previous offseasons and their interest in Schwarber indicates at least some willingness to spend, it would be understandable for fans in Pittsburgh to take the stance that they’ll believe ownership would greenlight that sort of financial outlay when they see it. Adding a top-ten free agent in this year’s class isn’t the only way the Pirates could improve this winter, however. Ken Rosenthal and Evan Drellich of The Athletic reported yesterday that Pittsburgh is also looking at players like Ryan O’Hearn, Jorge Polanco, and Kazuma Okamoto as “perhaps more realistic options” to bolster their lineup via free agency.
All three clock in well below Schwarber’s five-year, $135MM prediction from MLBTR’s Top 50 MLB Free Agents list. Okamoto is predicted for a four-year, $64MM deal, while Polanco is predicted for three years and $42MM and O’Hearn is predicted for two years and $26MM. Of that trio, only O’Hearn wouldn’t represent a new record in free agency for the Pirates, and given the fact that the Pirates entered 2025 with three $70MM+ contracts on their books it’s hardly out of the realm of possibility that they could stomach a deal on one of those levels. Any of those hitters would substantially improve the Pittsburgh lineup as well and could combine with Horwitz, Bart, Reynolds, and Bart to create a much more competent offense than the team had this season.
With that said, Rosenthal and Drellich caution that it could be difficult for the Pirates to convince even mid-level free agents like those to sign on in Pittsburgh if they get similar offers from teams with clearer paths towards contention. MLBTR’s Top 40 Offseason Trade Candidates list holds intriguing names like Brendan Donovan, Jarren Duran, Brandon Lowe, and Alec Bohm, all of whom would substantially improve the Pirates’ offense in their own right and allow them to do so without spending significant dollars or the player having the opportunity to turn them down. Of course, a trade wouldn’t necessarily preclude a free agent signing; in fact, if they were to acquire an affordable piece like Donovan, it might actually make them more likely to sign a free agent if players begin to view their path to contention in 2026 as more credible.
How do MLBTR readers view the hints of spending in Pittsburgh this winter? Will they make a splash in free agency this winter? Or, if not, will they at least sign a credible enough free agent to break the record held by Liriano’s deal from more than a decade ago? Will they go high enough to surpass the $70MM range of the Hayes and Keller deals? Have your say in the poll below:
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