It came as something of a surprise when the Padres retained closer Heath Bell at Sunday's non-waiver trade deadline. A pending free agent on a small-market club, Bell was considered the favorite among relievers on this July's trade market to find a new home.
However, no suitor could meet the Padres' asking price, apparently, which is reported to have been some player (or players) the Friars deemed to be of equal value to the two compensatory draft picks they'd receive in the offseason if Bell were to sign elsewhere after turning down arbitration.
The situation has grown complicated for the Padres, however, as Buster Olney of ESPN.com and Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com explained in separate pieces today. After the deadline, Bell said he'd accept arbitration if the Padres offered it to him, which would not be cost effective for a team on a tight budget. After all, Bell, 34 in September, could earn as much as $12-13MM in 2012 after another trip through arbitration.
The Padres also don't seem especially inclined to offer him a long-term deal -- even at a discount -- because he's said since Spring Training that he'd take one, and yet none has come to fruition. The others options are to trade him this month after putting him on waivers, which is not easy and compromises bargaining leverage, or to perhaps release Bell after going through arbitration if the price is exorbitant, a scenario put forth by Tom Krasovic of Inside The Padres.
If you're wondering about the fantasy ramifications of this situation, check out the post I wrote up today over at CloserNews.com.
Anyway, what would you do if you were the Padres?
In short, the Mets have new competition in their quest to trade their premium outfielder, Carlos Beltran, in the form of the Rays and Upton. Because of the complicated circumstances surrounding a potential Beltran trade, interest is shifting toward Upton, according to Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi of FOXSports.com.
Beltran might be more attractive because he's a better hitter than Upton. However, questions remain about Beltran's defense in the outfield, as he's probably best suited for work in a corner spot. As well, he's a free agent at season's end, and his contract includes a stipulation that he may not be offered arbitration, meaning teams will be reluctant to part with top prospects for a two-month rental who won't yield compensatory draft picks. Upton, meanwhile, is a better defender, is a pure center fielder, and is under team control through 2012.
If you were a team searching for an outfielder, would you pursue Beltran or Upton?
Twins lefty Franciso Liriano is an intriguing potential trade candidate. It feels like he's been around forever, but he's just 27 and under team control through 2012, so he's still well within his prime years and relatively cheap for another season and a half.
Liriano's raw stuff is nasty, but the road back from Tommy John surgery in 2006 has been marked by notable highs and lows. He appeared to be fully recovered in 2010, posting a 3.62 ERA (2.62 FIP), 9.44 K/9, 2.72 BB/9 and 53.6% GB percentage. He's regressed in 2011, however, with his control (4.65 BB/9) being especially problematic.
Between Liriano's bouncing between dominance and mediocrity, and the Twins' uphill climb in the AL Central (eight games behind the Indians through today), it's quite possible that the lefty could be made available on the trade market this month. This came up in last week's MLBTR Chat with Tim Dierkes, who suggested that the Twins would probably recoup a top-50 prospect in exchange for Liriano, considering his age and contract status. (For reference, here are Keith Law's, Baseball America's and Baseball Prospectus' respective top-100 prospects for 2011).
The reasons to justify such a payment for Liriano are self-evident: His potential is huge, and he's been dominant for stretches in his career. But is it a no-brainer? Prospects are valued as highly now as they've ever been, and Liriano's inconsistencies are scary, as is his reliance on what may be an arm-taxing slider, as Eno Sarris of Fangraphs recently illustrated.
If you were a suitor, what would you do?
The Ryan Howard post yesterday sparked quite a debate. Now is your chance to see how your peers feel about his comments and contract renewal. Click here to vote on whether you feel he was out of line.
We're trying something new here at MLBTradeRumors.com, a reader poll. Today's question:
Was Michael Young's contract extension a smart move by the Rangers?
Click here to take the poll; you can also view the results.