Transaction Retrospection: A Washington-Oakland Blockbuster
It has been almost three full years since the Nationals and Athletics swung a noteworthy trade that has already made a big impact and could continue to have a sizable effect in the coming seasons. Leading up to the July 2017 trade deadline, the Nationals acquired relievers Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson in exchange for fellow reliever Blake Treinen and a pair of prospects in left-hander Jesus Luzardo and third baseman Sheldon Neuse.
It was a bold strike for the Nationals, then way ahead of their competition in the NL East but aiming to patch up a poor bullpen. Doolittle and Madson did indeed continue to put up stellar numbers after the trade, helping the Nationals to a division title. The Nats then bowed out of the playoffs in the NLDS with a five-game defeat at the hands of the Cubs, though Doolittle and Madson were effective in that series.
Unfortunately for Washington, the 2017 campaign was the last good one of Madson’s career. He pitched to a 5.28 ERA over 44 1/3 innings in their uniform in 2018 – a non-playoff effort for the team. With the Nationals mired in mediocrity in late August of that year, they traded him to the Dodgers for righty Andrew Istler. Madson’s struggles continued in LA, and he hasn’t pitched since.
Doolittle, on the other hand, remains a valuable member of Washington’s roster. The southpaw has logged a stingy 2.87 ERA with 10.47 K/9, 1.93 BB/9 and 75 saves in 83 chances across 135 innings in a Nationals uniform. The 33-year-old’s regular-season output in 2019 was somewhat underwhelming, but he made up for it by serving as an instrumental piece in helping the franchise to its first-ever World Series title in the fall. Doolittle combined for 10 1/3 frames of two-run ball in series wins over the Dodgers, Cardinals and Astros. He’ll be a National for at least one more season (if there is one), as they picked up his $6.5MM club option after last year.
Flags fly forever, so in light of Doolittle’s contributions, the Nationals would probably make this trade again. The same goes for the Athletics. Sure, Madson and Doolittle impressed when they were part of the club, but the A’s have benefited quite a bit from selling high on those two. The A’s weren’t in contention when the trade went down, and nor did they make the playoffs that year, but Treinen helped key a postseason return in 2018 with one of the greatest campaigns a reliever has ever put forth. He recorded a ridiculous 0.78 ERA with 38 saves, thereby aiding in a 97-win season for the A’s. They posted the same record en route to another postseason berth last year, though Treinen’s production fell off a cliff, and he lost his job as their closer as a result. He’s now a member of the Dodgers after the A’s non-tendered him over the winter.
While Treinen’s success in Oakland was fleeting, the team could profit from Luzardo’s presence for a long time. Nineteen years old when the trade occurred, Luzardo entered 2017 as Baseball America’s 15th-best Nationals prospect. He’s now one of the premier prospects in all of baseball (BA ranks him ninth) and someone with front-of-the-rotation upside. For Luzardo to realize that potential, though, he’ll have to stay healthy.
Luzardo’s a former Tommy John surgery patient who missed most of last season with rotator cuff and lat troubles, but the results were scintillating when he was able to pitch. He made his major league debut late in the year out of the A’s bullpen and proceeded to fire 12 innings of two-run ball with 16 strikeouts, three walks and just five hits given up. The A’s will obviously hope for that dominance to carry over when he joins their rotation.
Neuse, 25, is not an elite farmhand, but there’s still hope for him to amount to something in the bigs. He had difficulty over his first 61 MLB plate appearances last year, though he was terrific in Triple-A ball, where he batted .317/.389/.550 (126 wRC+) with 27 home runs in 560 PA. MLB.com is bullish on Neuse, rating him sixth in the A’s system and writing that he “could be a big league regular in another organization, but for now looks like a very solid super-utility type whose bat will force its way into the lineup more often than not.”
Assessing this trade now, it looks like a win-win. The Nationals would love to have Luzardo vying for a spot in their already stacked rotation, and they probably wouldn’t mind having Neuse around to push for playing time. But you can’t take away the championship Doolittle helped them win. On the other side, the A’s received an unforgettable season from Treinen and could have one or two long-term contributors in Luzardo and Neuse.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
AL West Notes: Angels, Laureano, Piscotty, Crawford
The relationship between Scott Boras and Angels owner Arte Moreno is a notable subplot of the Halos’ plans to upgrade their starting pitching this winter, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal writes (subscription required). There has been some level of friction between Moreno and Boras ever since the Angels came up short in their pursuit of free agent and Boras client Mark Teixeira in the 2008-09 offseason. This isn’t to say that the two sides haven’t worked together since, as current Angels such as Noe Ramirez and top prospect Jo Adell are all represented by the Boras Corporation, and the Angels have signed Boras clients like Ryan Madson and Matt Harvey to notable deals in recent years.
Still, the modest Madson/Harvey contracts are a far cry from what it would take to sign one of the several Boras clients at or near the top of the free agent pitching market — i.e. Gerrit Cole, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Dallas Keuchel, and (if he opts out of his contract) Stephen Strasburg. Even beyond the Boras clients, Rosenthal notes that Los Angeles also couldn’t come to terms with any upper-tier free agent arms the team pursued last winter, leading the Angels towards their ill-fated strategy of signing players like Harvey to one-year contracts. Beyond free agency, Rosenthal wonders if the Halos could trade for pitching by offering from a farm system that is heavy on position-player talent, if not necessarily elite talent (besides Adell) in the eyes of most prospect rankings.
More from around the AL West…
- Ramon Laureano is on track to return from the injured list during the Athletics‘ upcoming series with the Tigers, A’s manager Bob Melvin told media (including Ron Kroichick of the San Francisco Chronicle). A stress reaction in his right shin has kept Laureano out since July 28, cutting short a white-hot hitting streak that had seen the outfielder post a 1.264 OPS over his previous 93 plate appearances. For the season as a whole, Laureano has a .284/.334/.518 slash line and 21 homers in 419 PA, and he’ll reclaim his usual center field role upon his return. Laureano’s activation will help an Oakland outfield that has been further depleted by the loss of Stephen Piscotty to an ankle sprain. Piscotty hit the IL on August 25 and has yet to begin baseball activities, Melvin said, so it isn’t known when Piscotty could return to the lineup. [UPDATE: Laureano will return on Friday, Melvin told the San Francisco Chronicle’s Susan Slusser and other media members]
- Mariners shortstop J.P. Crawford will miss roughly two weeks due to a hamstring strain, GM Jerry Dipoto told the Seattle Times’ Ryan Divish and other media. Crawford was diagnosed with a Grade 1 strain, which is the lowest level of severity, though “some areas of the strain [are] nearing a Grade 2,” Divish writes. It isn’t out of the question that Crawford’s season could be over, as Dipoto said the M’s “won’t push” Crawford if any complications arise. Acquired as the young centerpiece of the trade that sent Jean Segura to the Phillies last winter, Crawford has a .241/.322/.397 slash line over 338 plate appearances in his first season as a Mariner.
Latest On Ryan Madson
There had been indications of late that veteran reliever Ryan Madson could be closing in on a deal. Now, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (in a notes post; subscription link), there’s reason to wonder whether he’ll sign at all.
Madson, 38, is said to be “thinking about not playing” in the 2019 campaign. Whether that is due to personal considerations or displeasure with the offers he has received is not clear, but it seems it’s not entirely certain that he’ll be back for a 14th MLB campaign.
If Madson does decide to throw, moreover, it’ll only be in the right circumstances. Rosenthal’s source says that Madson is expected to be “extremely picky” about where he signs. Again, it’s hard to know just what to make of that, since we don’t know what precise factors are driving the decisionmaking.
From the outside, it would be a surprise if multiple teams weren’t interested in giving the Southern California native a MLB roster spot and at least some guaranteed money. He still has a big fastball and compelling peripherals, even if he never was able to get the results to line up in 2018. And Madson put it all together in a compelling 2017 campaign in which he worked to a 1.83 ERA with 10.2 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9 in 59 innings.
No matter where things go from here, it has been quite a momentous late-career push for Madson, who made himself into a star closer in his age-30 season before injuries intervened. He ultimately missed three full MLB campaigns (2012-14), but has been even better since returning. In 239 2/3 innings since his 2015 return, Madson owns a 3.19 ERA with 8.6 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9.
Twins Rumors: Kimbrel, Grandal, Madson, Norris
As star closer Craig Kimbrel continues to wait for a new contract, Dan Hayes of The Athletic raised the notion recently (subscription link) that the Twins could position themselves as a landing spot. Kimbrel has reportedly been seeking a five-year deal, though Hayes reports the Twins would only be interested in a shorter-term pact with a high annual value. As Hayes explores, the Twins’ recent but failed bid for Yasmani Grandal suggests that they’re willing to make a run at players they deem to be unique assets in the market. None of that is a declaration that Minnesota is actively pursuing Kimbrel at the moment, but the connection is still of some note.
Were Kimbrel to take a contract of three or fewer years, it’s fair to speculate that he’d look to topple the $17.33MM annual value record for a reliever — currently held by the Rockies’ Wade Davis. Recent comments from Twins baseball ops leaders Derek Falvey and Thad Levine largely downplayed the possibility of any marquee addition to the roster, and Kimbrel would see enhanced interest from more than just Minnesota if his asking price dipped to three or fewer years. With a 2019 payroll that currently checks in more than $20MM south of last season’s Opening Day mark and zero guaranteed contracts in 2020, the Twins arguably have the most financial flexibility of any team in baseball, though that hardly means they should be expected to make a big free-agent splash.
More out of Minnesota…
- Speaking of the Twins’ interest in Grandal, Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN/SKOR North reported in a recent podcast episode (Twins talk starts around 11:50 mark) that Minnesota was willing to go to three years at a total of $13-15MM per season in order to bring Grandal aboard. Grandal’s camp, however, told the Twins quickly and definitively that he wasn’t interested in signing there. Given that Grandal landed one state over in Wisconsin, it’s unlikely that geography played much of a role, so perhaps signing with a clearer contender was a priority. Since signing, Grandal has also spoken about the emphasis he placed on finding an annual value commensurate with the game’s top catchers. It’s rare to see a player turn down three or four years (the latter reportedly offered by the Mets) in order to receive an AAV boost of this size, but every player is wired differently, and Grandal may simply be more open to risk than most. If he has a strong 2019, he could come out ahead next offseason when he won’t have a qualifying offer hanging over his head.
- While the Kimbrel scenario may not be all that realistic for Twins fans, Minnesota is still looking to add a reliever, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. Right-hander Ryan Madson is among the players Minnesota is considering as the team looks to further deepen its ‘pen, Heyman notes. Madson logged 52 2/3 innings with 9.2 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 1.20 HR/9 and a 42.6 percent ground-ball rate in 2018 — solid secondary numbers that generally look more appealing than his 5.47 ERA. Beyond that, Madson’s velocity actually improved over its 2017 levels, as he averaged 95.9 mph on his four-seamer and 95.4 mph on his sinker, per Statcast. Madson also posted a 13.9 percent swinging-strike rate that was his best since returning from a three-year injury absence in 2015. The 38-year-old was used heavily in the postseason by the Dodgers and looked to wear down in the World Series after strong showings in the NLDS and NLCS. However, he posted an intriguing 31-to-5 K/BB ratio from the All-Star break through the completion of the World Series and figures to come at an affordable rate.
- Meanwhile, Wolfson tweets that the Twins have both Madson and righty Bud Norris on their radar. However, he notes that the Twins have also been hoping to add relievers on minor league contracts, and it doesn’t seem likely that either Madson or Norris would be amenable to such a deal at this juncture. Norris worked to a 3.59 ERA 10.5 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 1.25 HR/9 and a 42.6 percent ground-ball rate in 57 2/3 innings with the Cardinals last season.
Ryan Madson, Shawn Kelley, Sergio Romo Generating Interest
Jan. 24: In addition to Madson and Brach (who, as Passan suggested was likely, found a home earlier today when he agreed to a deal with the Cubs), it seems that both Shawn Kelley and Sergio Romo are likely to find a landing spot in the near future.
MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand tweets that Kelley is choosing among three teams and could make a decision on his 2019 home “soon.” Fancred’s Jon Heyman, too, tweets that Kelley is being “heavily pursued,” as are both Madson and Romo.
Kelley, who’ll turn 35 in April, posted a 2.94 ERA with 9.2 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 1.29 HR/9 and a 30.2 percent grounder rate in 49 innings between the A’s and the Nats in ’18 — his third sub-3.00 ERA in the past four seasons.
Romo, meanwhile, helped to pioneer the “opener” role with the Rays last season, making five starts in that still-developing role. The 35-year-old (36 in March) had three very successful outings and one quite ugly showing (three earned runs in a third of an inning) as an opener but turned in a 3.88 ERA with a 68-to-16 K/BB ratio in 62 2/3 innings as a more conventional reliever. Romo nailed down 25 saves for Tampa Bay and turned in a 13 percent swinging-strike ratio and a 33.1 percent chase rate.
Relief Market Notes: Kimbrel, Brach, Axford
With Adam Ottavino leaving the board today, only one of the top nine relievers on MLBTR’s top 50 free agent list — the top member of that group, of course — remains unsigned. That seems to set the stage for the next tier of the relief market to kick into action. Cody Allen, Bud Norris, and Brad Brach all earned placements on our ranking but remain unsigned. Other still-unsigned veteran pen arms warranted honorable mention status: Justin Wilson, Ryan Madson, Oliver Perez, Adam Warren, and Tony Sipp. I recently broke down those and other names that are still available.
Here’s the latest on the relief market:
- The Red Sox are continuing to tamp down expectations of a move to add a closer. As Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com writes, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski referred to free agent closer Craig Kimbrel‘s Boston tenure in the past tense in comments today. He also suggested the team feels comfortable with its existing options to handle the ninth inning, naming Matt Barnes, Ryan Brasier, Tyler Thornburg, and Steven Wright as possibilities. Needless to say, that’s an interesting foursome for the defending World Series champs to propose as a slate of Kimbrel successor candidates. If there’s still a chance of a reunion with the all-time great reliever, Dombrowski didn’t hint at it. “Sometimes, you have to evaluate where you’re going to spend your dollars,” he said. “We decided to keep back the rest of the core of the club. We like our team a great deal and we think some of the guys internally can do the job. Can we get better? Perhaps. But we’ll see what takes place.”
- With no future commitments to speak of and a path to contention, the Twins seem to be a team to watch on the market. If nothing else, the club figures to bolster its pitching staff. The aforementioned Brad Brach is among the possible targets, according to LaVelle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune (Twitter link). The Minnesota front office has certainly shown an inclination to limit its risks in free agency, and it stands to reason that Brach will be available for a lesser and shorter commitment than many of the hurlers that have gone off the board already. The 32-year-old had something of a messy 2018 season after a string of productive campaigns, which could make him a nice value proposition.
- Veteran reliever John Axford is making no secret of his desire to return to the Blue Jays for the coming season, as Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca writes. With his family rooted in Toronto, the Canadian hurler says it’s where he’d like to be. Axford’s pitch is that he’d be a good mentor for a young team — and, perhaps, will again turn into a summer trade asset. There’s certainly an argument to be made that Axford would be a good fit, particularly if he’s again willing to take a minor-league deal. As Nicholson-Smith notes, Axford is delivering plenty of heat with his fastball, and the Jays still appear in need of some pitching depth.
August 31st Trade Deadline Recap
A flurry of activity came yesterday in advance of the deadline to acquire postseason-eligible players via trade. In case you weren’t able to keep track of it all, here’s a roundup of the swaps made by MLB organizations on August 31st, 2018, sorted by the team on the acquiring end of the major-leaguer involved.
AL West
- The Athletics received right-hander Cory Gearrin in a swap with the division-rival Rangers. Minor-league righties Abdiel Mendoza and Teodoro Ortega are headed back to Texas in the deal.
AL Central
- The Indians acquired Josh Donaldson from the Blue Jays. Toronto will send $2.7MM to Cleveland as well, and they’ll get back a player to be named later, the quality of which will be dependent upon how Donaldson’s health situation progresses.
AL East
- The Yankees took Adeiny Hechavarria off the Pirates‘ hands in exchange for a player to be named later or cash considerations. It’s not yet known how much cash the Bucs will chip in to help pay the ~$1MM still owed to Hechavarria.
- The Yankees also pried Andrew McCutchen from the Giants. San Francisco gets infield prospect Abiatal Avelino and right-handed pitching prospect Juan De Paula.
NL West
- The Dodgers nabbed David Freese from the Pirates. Infielder Jesus Valdez will head back to Pittsburgh in exchange.
- The Dodgers dealt for Ryan Madson of the Nationals as well. Minors righty Andrew Istler will head to Washington in the trade.
- The Rockies plucked catcher Drew Butera from the Royals and will receive some salary relief in addition. MiLB lefty Jerry Vasto is going back to Colorado.
NL Central
- The Brewers struck a trade with the Nationals for Gio Gonzalez. Milwaukee will also get $250K in international bonus pool funds, while a pair of minor leaguers (first baseman KJ Harrison and shortstop Gilbert Lara) will head to the Nats.
- The Brewers also landed Curtis Granderson in a swap with the Blue Jays. The Jays will cover an unknown portion of the money still owed on Granderson’s $5MM 2018 salary, and will add outfield prospect Demi Orimoloye to their minor-league ranks.
- The busy Brewers got Xavier Cedeno from the White Sox as well, who’ll get outfielder Bryan Connell and right-hander Johan Dominguez in return.
NL East
- (No trades)
Dodgers Acquire Ryan Madson
1:50pm: The Dodgers have announced the trade.
1:06pm: The Dodgers are sending minor league right-hander Andrew Istler to the Nationals in return, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports (via Twitter).
12:54pm: The Dodgers and Nationals have agreed to a trade that’ll send right-hander Ryan Madson from D.C. to L.A., reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). Madson was placed on revocable waivers earlier this week, per the Washington Post’s Jorge Castillo. Ken Gurnick of MLB.com had previously reported that the Dodgers placed a claim on the veteran setup man.
Though the Nats could have simply let Madson go to the Dodgers and shed the remainder of his $7.5MM salary, Fancred’s Jon Heyman tweets the Dodgers will indeed send a prospect to Washington in return for the right-hander. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale adds that the Dodgers are taking on all of the $1.24MM remaining on the 38-year-old Madson’s contract. He’s a free agent at season’s end, so Madson will be a rental piece for the Dodgers as they strive for a postseason berth in the competitive NL West.
Madson was only recently activated from the disabled list after missing time with a nerve issue in his back. He has a strong big league track record and has generally been a reliable late-inning arm in recent seasons since returning from Tommy John surgery in 2015, but he’s struggled with the Nats so far this season. Through 44 1/3 innings this year, Madson has posted an unsightly 5.28 ERA, though he’s averaged a healthy 95.8 mph on his heater and is still missing bats (8.3 K/9, 12.4 percent swinging-strike rate).
The Dodgers’ bullpen has been struggling to near unthinkable levels in the month of August, as manager Dave Roberts tried to use virtually every arm at his disposal in late-inning situations with star closer Kenley Jansen on the disabled list. The Dodger ‘pen blew leads in seven straight games at one point, and when the team welcomed Jansen back from the DL, he too struggled to uncharacteristic levels. Jansen has allowed runs in each of his four appearances since returning from a DL stint due to an irregular heartbeat. With the bullpen reeling, Madson and this weekend’s slate of September call-ups will give Roberts some additional options to mix and match as he tries to keep his club in the race.
As for Istler, he wasn’t considered to be among the Dodgers’ top prospects but has enjoyed a solid season across three minor league levels. A 23rd-round pick in 2015, Istler opened the 2018 season at Class-A Advanced but has steadily risen through the ranks to Triple-A. He’s pitched to a combined 2.37 ERA with 8.2 K/9, 2.1 BB/9 and a roughly 43 percent ground-ball rate through 79 2/3 innings. Istler, who has allowed just two homers on the season, could conceivably give the Nats a bullpen option as soon as next season given his 2018 ascension.
Dodgers Claim Ryan Madson On Revocable Waivers; No Agreement Reached Yet
6:18pm: Ken Gurnick of MLB.com reports that the Dodgers were the team that placed the claim on Madson (Twitter link).
5:53pm: Nationals right-hander Ryan Madson was claimed on revocable trade waivers by an unknown team earlier today, reports Robert Murray of The Athletic (on Twitter). The Nationals and the claiming team will have 48 hours to work out a trade, which would give the two sides until early afternoon Friday to work out a deal. The Nats, alternatively, could simply allow Madson and the roughly $1.36MM remaining on his salary go for no return other than full salary relief.
Madson, who turned 38 yesterday, is in the final season of a three-year deal and will reach free agency at season’s end. He’s struggled to a 5.28 ERA in 44 1/3 innings this season and missed time on the DL due to chest and back injuries. However, he’s also averaging a career-best 95.8 mph on his fastball this season and has posted solid marks of 8.3 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9. Much of the damage done against Madson has come in a trio of meltdowns this season, as he’s had a pair of outings in which he yielded four earned runs and another in which he was clobbered for six runs.
For all of his struggles in 2018, Madson has a lengthy track record of quality results as a late-game reliever and has been highly effective in recent seasons. From 2015-17, Madson notched a 2.55 ERA (3.08 FIP) with 8.4 K/9 against 2.1 BB/9 in 187 innings for the Royals, Athletics and Nationals. If a deal is ultimately reached, he’d join his new team in advance of the Sept. 1 deadline for postseason eligibility and have a month to get back on track following a change of scenery.
Nationals Place Ryan Madson On Revocable Trade Waivers
The Nationals placed veteran reliever Ryan Madson on revocable trade waivers yesterday, per Jorge Castillo of the Washington Post (via Twitter). He’ll be on the wire until tomorrow.
It’s true, of course, that almost all major league players are run through trade waivers at some point. But the timing is still relevant, particularly in this case, as the placement kicks off a two-day waiver period. If a claim is made, the team that sought waivers (in this case, the Nationals) has another two-day stretch in which to work out a trade, pull back the player, or allow the contract to move to the claiming team without compensation.
[RELATED: How August Trades Work]
With Madson returning from the DL, and immediately thereafter hitting waivers, the Nats may have an opportunity to recoup some value — or, at least, save some salary — for the hurler. Having already moved veteran hitters Daniel Murphy and Matt Adams, and then lost pending free-agent reliever Kelvin Herrera to an injury, it seems likely that the D.C. organization will be quite motivated to move Madson.
Though he’s now 38 years of age, Madson still delivers plenty of velocity. Indeed, he’s averaging a career-high 96.4 mph with his four-seamer and getting swings and misses on 12.4% of his deliveries.
Those stats may help contending organizations look past some of the less-than-promising figures on Madson’s 2018 stat line. After posting a sparkling 1.83 ERA last year, he’s working at an ugly 5.28 clip through 44 1/3 innings this season, with only 8.3 K/9 against 3.0 BB/9.
Opposing hitters are carrying a .326 batting average on balls in play and averaging a 13.0% HR/FB rate against Madson, both of which sit above his typical recent levels. His 66.6% strand rate also hints at some potential poor fortune. Whether those numbers are due primarily to natural variability or an erosion in his skills is a matter for scouts to assess.
National League organizations will have first crack at Madson, who is earning $7.5MM on the season before reaching free agency this fall. Presently, the Dodgers and Phillies are the two clear contenders with the worst records in the league. Both could consider a move for Madson, though surely there are other players under consideration as well.