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Red Sox To Decline Option On James Paxton; Paxton Yet To Decide On Player Option

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The Red Sox are declining their two-year, $26MM team option on left-hander James Paxton, chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom told reporters (including Alex Speier of the Boston Globe). The southpaw will now have to decide whether to trigger a $4MM player option to return to Boston or if he wishes to test the open market.

This was a no-brainer for the Red Sox, as the 6’4″ hurler missed the entire 2022 season. Paxton blew out his elbow during his first start of the 2021 season with the Mariners, requiring Tommy John surgery. That cost him the rest of the year, but the Sox signed him to a complex $10MM guarantee last winter. The deal paid him $6MM for this past season and guaranteed him the option to lock in a $4MM salary for next year if Boston didn’t trigger a pair of $13MM club options covering the 2023-24 campaigns.

It was a high-risk, high-upside dice roll for the Red Sox that hasn’t panned out. Boston had hoped Paxton would be able to return late in the season and contribute to a possible playoff push, but he suffered a Grade 2 lat tear while rehabbing and didn’t wind up throwing a big league pitch. With all of 1 1/3 innings pitched over the past two seasons, there was no chance the Red Sox would commit an additional $26MM on a bounceback.

Paxton’s now left with an interesting decision. He may be hard-pressed to find a $4MM base salary on the open market after two essentially lost seasons, but it’s possible he declines the option in search of an incentive-laden deal. Even if the 34-year-old doesn’t find an offer that quite matches the $4MM guarantee he’d be foregoing, he could seek out a deal that contains additional bonuses based on his number of innings pitched or starts in 2023 if he’s confident he’ll be healthy by Spring Training.

Brad Ausmus Declines To Return As Athletics’ Bench Coach

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Brad Ausmus has turned down an offer to return for a second season as the bench coach of the Athletics, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post (Twitter link). According to Heyman, the former big league catcher is looking to find a front office position instead.

Ausmus only spent a year in Oakland. The A’s tabbed the 53-year-old as bench coach in January, giving first-year skipper Mark Kotsay an experienced hand. Ausmus has five years of big league managerial experience, four with the Tigers (2014-17) and a lone season as an Angel (2019). Kotsay will now have to look elsewhere for his top lieutenant heading into his second year as Oakland skipper.

It was a predictably rough season for the A’s, who tore the MLB roster down the preceding winter to cut payroll. Oakland finished an AL-worst 60-102, a record besting only that of the Nationals. It’s certainly not the way Kotsay would’ve hoped to start his managerial career, although he and the front office were aware heading into the season there’d be plenty of growing pains with a mostly unproven roster.

Ausmus, meanwhile, seems set to land in a baseball operations department somewhere over the coming months. He’s worked in the Padres’ and Angels’ front offices in the past, so a transition back to the executive ranks wouldn’t be unfamiliar.

Minasian: Angels Will Not Trade Shohei Ohtani This Offseason

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Angels general manager Perry Minasian informed reporters this evening that two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani will open the 2023 season in Anaheim (via Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register). The Angels are not giving any consideration to trading Ohtani, according to Minasian.

“Ohtani is not getting moved,” the GM told reporters. “He’s going to be here. He’ll be with us to start the season. I know there’s been rumors and all types of things, but he will be here. He’ll be part of the club. I said this before and I’ll say it again: We love the player. I think our goal is for him to be here for a long time.”

It’s a wholly unsurprising sentiment, as the Angels never seemed all that likely to move the 2021 AL MVP. Despite what would’ve surely been massive interest at this past summer’s trade deadline, Anaheim took Ohtani off the market almost immediately. Reports later indicated owner Arte Moreno directed his front office not to deal the two-time All-Star.

A few weeks later, Moreno announced he’s been exploring the possibility of selling the franchise. That process was reportedly already underway by the time the trade deadline rolled around, and the possibility of marketing an Ohtani-fronted roster to potential buyers figured to have played a role in the owner’s thinking. There hasn’t been much recent word on the sale process, although Jon Heyman of the New York Post reiterated last week that Moreno plans to go through with the sale.

The sale exploration could take most or all of the offseason, leaving the franchise in a state of uncertainty. The Halos are coming off a 73-89 season that marked their seventh straight below-average campaign. Anaheim dismissed Joe Maddon midseason and replaced him with Phil Nevin, but the managerial swap failed to reinvigorate a team that collapsed after a strong first month and a half. Minasian and his front office staff will set to work on trying to build around a core led by Ohtani and Mike Trout. The Halos have a promising rotation front four in Ohtani, Patrick Sandoval, Reid Detmers and José Suarez, but they’re lacking in bullpen depth and don’t have much in the way of lineup certainty beyond Trout, Ohtani and, to a lesser extent, right fielder Taylor Ward.

How much money Moreno’s willing to allocate to build out a roster with which he’s ostensibly parting in the coming months is a question that looms over the offseason. The Angels opened the 2022 season with a payroll in the $188MM range, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Including projected salaries for arbitration-eligible players, the Halos have roughly $145.5MM in commitments on next year’s books. That includes salaries at or in excess of $30MM for each of Anthony Rendon, Trout and Ohtani.

The latter commitment was agreed upon last month, when the Angels and Ohtani agreed to a $30MM deal for his final season of club control. That set the record for the largest salary for an arbitration-eligible player in major league history, quickly foreclosing any possibility the parties would go to a hearing over his 2023 salary. There’s no indication they’ve recently discussed a longer-term deal, and Ohtani’s presently on track to be the top free agent in next winter’s class.

Minasian and company would surely love to keep the unique talent in Orange County for the long haul, but it remains to be seen if the 28-year-old is eager to engage in extension talks with the franchise’s present uncertainty. Fans of other teams will surely hold out hope the Angels change course in their resistance to dealing Ohtani, perhaps pointing to the other franchise currently up for sale as a hoped-for example. Nationals GM Mike Rizzo went on record in June to say the team would not trade Juan Soto, but they reconsidered and ultimately moved him at the deadline after Soto declined what proved to be their final long-term extension offer. That said, it’s generally rare to hear a baseball operations leader formally close the book on any potential roster maneuver, and it’d now register as great a surprise as ever if Ohtani is wearing anything other than an Angel uniform on Opening Day.

Cardinals Select Moises Gomez

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The Cardinals announced they’ve selected outfielder Moisés Gómez onto the 40-man roster, a move first reported by Daniel Guerrero of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (Twitter link). The decision prevents him from qualifying for minor league free agency in the coming days.

It’s the first stint on an MLB 40-man roster for Gómez. A Venezuela native, he first joined the professional ranks as an international signee of the Rays during the 2014-15 signing period. The right-handed hitter drew some prospect attention a few years later, with his power potential and decent corner outfield defense giving him a chance to be a part of the long-term Tampa Bay outfield. He appeared among Baseball America’s top 30 prospects in an always-deep Rays farm system every year from 2019-21, but he fell off the prospect radar with a dismal .171/.256/.309 showing in 76 Double-A games last year.

Tampa Bay declined to put Gómez on their 40-man roster after that season, and he qualified for minor league free agency as a player who’d spent seven years in the minors. The Cardinals gave him another shot, inking him to a non-roster deal and sending him to Double-A Springfield. Gómez had an incredible .321/.401/.705 showing, popping 23 home runs in 257 plate appearances in his second crack at the level. The Cards bumped him to Triple-A Memphis, where he added another 16 longballs with a .266/.340/.541 line in 244 trips to the dish. That didn’t get him onto the MLB roster during the season, but St. Louis will add him to the 40-man now to retain his long-term contractual rights.

It remains to be seen if Gómez will hold that roster spot all winter. He clearly has big power potential, with Guerrero noting his 39 cumulative homers led all minor league players this year. Questions about his hit tool lingered during his time in the Tampa Bay system, though, and those are still present in spite of his huge power showing. Gómez struck out in an immense 34.7% of his plate appearances this year, a rate not topped by any big league hitter with 500+ trips to the dish. Any further spike in whiffs against MLB arms would figure to leave Gómez on the roster bubble.

Whatever concerns the Cards front office may have about his swing-and-miss propensity, they clearly value Gómez enough not to let him walk at the start of the winter. His selection brings their 40-man roster tally to 37.

Twins Decline Options On Bundy, Archer, Sano

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The Twins announced this afternoon they’ve declined their respective options on Dylan Bundy, Chris Archer and Miguel Sanó. Minnesota also confirmed the previously-reported decision to exercise their option to retain starter Sonny Gray. None of those come as a surprise, as they were each easy calls for the Minnesota front office.

Bundy signed a $5MM guarantee last offseason, with the Twins rolling the dice he’d bounce back after an injury-plagued 2021 campaign in Anaheim. The deal came with an $11MM club option for 2023, giving them some extra contractual upside if Bundy righted the ship in the Twin Cities. The right-hander did stay healthy enough to take the ball 29 times and soak up 140 innings, but he didn’t put up the kind of numbers the front office had envisioned. Bundy managed only a 4.89 ERA with a well below-average 15.8% strikeout rate and a modest 9.7% swinging strike rate. He demonstrated excellent control, walking fewer than 5% of opponents,  but he didn’t miss many bats and surrendered 24 home runs (1.54 per nine innings).

A former fourth overall pick and top pitching prospect, Bundy has seen his velocity trend downwards as he’s battled injury concerns throughout his career. He averaged only 89 MPH on his four-seam this year, the first time his already pedestrian fastball has dipped below 90 MPH on average. Bundy, who turns 30 later this month, will collect a $1MM buyout and head back to free agency. He’s likely looking at one-year offers as a depth arm again, and it’s possible his next deal will come with a lower base salary than this’s year $4MM figure.

Archer was also an offseason signee, joining Bundy as part of Minnesota’s efforts to bolster the back of its rotation. He inked an incentive-laden deal that guaranteed him a $2.75MM base salary and a $750K buyout on a 2023 option. He tacked on $3MM in incentives by making 25 starts this year, bringing Minnesota’s ultimate outlay to $6.5MM. Rather than trigger their end of a $10MM mutual option for next season, Minnesota sends the two-time All-Star back to the open market.

The 34-year-old posted a 4.56 ERA across 102 2/3 innings as Twin. That was his biggest workload since 2019, but Archer still had a pair of injured list stints due to hip and pectoral issues. When healthy, he posted a below-average 19.2% strikeout rate and walked batters at an elevated 11% clip. The righty still averaged 93 MPH on his heater, but this year’s 9.5% swinging strike percentage was his lowest mark since 2014.

Sanó, meanwhile, hits free agency for the first time in his career. Today’s move, while without suspense, looks as if it’ll officially close the books on his 13-year tenure in the organization. A high-profile amateur signee out of the Dominican Republic and subsequently one of the best prospects in the game, Sanó made his big league debut in 2015. He hit the ground running against MLB pitching, showcasing the massive raw power and lofty walk totals but huge strikeout rates that’d define his entire tenure in Minnesota.

The burly slugger looked capable of carrying a lineup at his best, including a .247/.346/.576, 34-homer showing in only 105 games in 2019. That earned Sanó a $30MM extension the following offseason, but that proved to be a misstep for the Twins. He posted only slightly above-average offensive numbers from 2020-21 and had an almost completely lost 2022 campaign. Sanó played in 20 games this year, putting up an .083/.211/.133 line in 71 plate appearances while battling persistent knee issues. The 29-year-old returned briefly from early-season knee surgery but spent the last two months on the IL.

Minnesota makes the easy call to pay Sanó a $3MM buyout rather than trigger a $14MM option on his services. He hits the market as a buy-low option for teams seeking first base help, with his huge power sure to get him some attention from another club.

Andrew Chafin Declines Player Option With Tigers

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TODAY: Chafin has officially declined his option.

NOVEMBER 2: Tigers reliever Andrew Chafin will decline his $6.5MM player option for 2023, reports Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press. He’ll hit the open market five days after the World Series concludes in search of a new multi-year pact.

It’ll be the third consecutive offseason in which the southpaw is available in free agency. After a lengthy stint with the Diamondbacks to begin his career, Chafin was dealt to the Cubs at the 2020 deadline before hitting the open market for the first time. He re-signed with Chicago on a one-year deal the following offseason, then hit the market last winter. That came on the heels of a sparkling 2.83 ERA showing through 68 2/3 frames with the Cubs and A’s which positioned him alongside Aaron Loup and Brooks Raley as the top lefty relievers available. Chafin wound up inking a two-year, $13MM guarantee with the Tigers that allowed him to opt out after his first season.

In a Detroit offseason largely defined by misfires, the Chafin deal marked a stellar pickup. It was never likely he’d manage to replicate a sub-2.00 ERA, but this year’s 2.83 mark across 57 1/3 innings was again excellent. He posted unanimously strong peripherals as well, striking out 27.6% of batters faced and racking up grounders on a bit more than half the batted balls he allowed. For a second straight season, he walked under 8% of opponents, a lower than average mark and a welcome development after some control inconsistency earlier in his career.

Chafin wasn’t quite as dominant against southpaws this past season as he’d been in 2021. After holding lefties to a .170/.250/.223 slash last year, he allowed a .233/.320/.344 mark to them in Detroit. That’s still quite strong overall, and unlike many lefty relievers, Chafin hasn’t been prone to drastic platoon splits. Opposing righties mustered just a .214/.268/.317 line against him, and he fanned almost 27% of right-handed batters for a second straight season.

With that kind of performance, it’s no surprise the Meister Sports Management client believes he’ll top the remaining $6.5MM on his contract. Still, there was some intrigue about his decision, largely due to Detroit’s relative proximity to his Ohio home. That reportedly played a role in his decision to sign with the Tigers, and it was seemingly a factor in the team’s decision-making at this past trade deadline. With Detroit long since out of contention by the end of July, Chafin was a reasonable trade candidate. However, the Tigers didn’t find an offer to their liking, and Petzold has reported the front office didn’t feel pressured to take just any return out of a belief Chafin could trigger his player option to stay in Detroit.

That obviously won’t be the case, and while it stands to reason he’d welcome a return to the Tigers on a new free agent deal, it appears less likely the team would want to top the market for his services. Former GM Al Avila was dismissed midseason and replaced by president of baseball operations Scott Harris, who’s now tasked with overseeing a roster that has a number of injury questions in the starting rotation and players coming off down years all around the diamond. Harris and his staff should have a fair bit of financial breathing room this winter, but it’s unlikely they’ll prioritize adding to the bullpen.

Chafin will be one of the top left-handed relievers on the market. He’s headed into his age-33 season, which could prevent him from finding a three-year deal, but he should at least find strong two-year offers from teams. It’s a generally weak left-handed bullpen class, with Taylor Rogers and Matt Strahm among the other top options available.

Gosuke Katoh Signs With NPB’s Nippon-Ham Fighters

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Infielder Gosuke Katoh has signed with the Nippon-Ham Fighters of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, the team announced (h/t to the Kyoto News). It’s the first NPB stint for Katoh, who made his major league debut this past season after nine years in the minors. Katoh is represented by John Boggs & Associates.

A second-round pick of the Yankees in 2013, Katoh played in the organization through the end of 2019. He didn’t reach the big leagues and qualified for minor league free agency, bouncing between the Marlins and Padres systems before landing with the Blue Jays last offseason. Katoh cracked Toronto’s big league club out of Spring Training, but he appeared in just eight MLB games before being waived in early May. He landed with the Mets and spent the remainder of the season with their top affiliate in Syracuse, hitting .223/.310/.383 across 324 plate appearances.

New York outrighted Katoh off their 40-man roster over the summer, and he was eligible for minor league free agency this winter. Another crack with an affiliated team would have come on a minor league deal with a non-roster invitation to Spring Training. His new deal with the Fighters assuredly comes with a much stronger base salary than he’d have gotten had he played next year in Triple-A and gives him an opportunity to suit up at Japan’s highest level.

Katoh, notably, is a California native. Despite having been born and raised in the United States, he’s a dual U.S. – Japanese citizen based on his Japanese heritage. As a report from The Mainichi explains, all Japanese citizens — regardless of their place of residence or professional experience — are subject to the NPB draft if they wish to play in the league. Katoh, therefore, was part of last month’s draft alongside a number of younger, amateur players. The Fighters, coincidentally Katoh’s favorite team from childhood, selected him in the third round and agreed to terms. As a Japanese citizen, he will not count against NPB’s limit of four foreign players per roster.

It’s possible Katoh plays well enough in Japan to draw some new big league interest down the line. For now, he’ll join the Fighters as an infield option with multi-positional experience and a career .270/.360/.434 line at the Triple-A level.

Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions

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The World Series concludes this weekend, and the offseason gets underway almost immediately thereafter. Teams and players have to decide whether to exercise contractual options within five days of the Series ending, while clubs also must determine whether to issue their impending free agents a qualifying offer before free agency officially opens. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk took a preliminary look at the qualifying offer class in August (position players/pitchers).

With another few months of play in the books, we’ll take a final run at previewing the class. As a refresher, the qualifying offer is a one-year offer that’s calculated by averaging the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in the majors in a given season. That value has been set at $19.65MM for this offseason. If a player rejects the offer, he sets out into free agency. The player’s previous team would receive draft pick compensation if he signs elsewhere, while a team that signs another club’s qualified free agent would forfeit a draft choice (or choices) and possibly international signing bonus space.

Draft pick compensation and forfeiture differs depending on a team’s revenue sharing status and whether they exceeded the luxury tax threshold this year. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes looked yesterday at what picks each team would lose were they to sign a qualified free agent; conversely, Mark Polishuk covered the draft pick compensation clubs would land if one of their qualified free agents departed.

Locks

There’s not a whole lot to say about this group. These are 10 of the best impending free agents. Bogaerts, deGrom, Judge, Rodón, Swanson and Turner are all going to top nine figures. Díaz, Nimmo and maybe Contreras could get to $100MM. Bassitt doesn’t have quite that earning power, since he’ll turn 34 in February. That caps the length of the contract he can expect, but the veteran righty is arguably the fourth-best starting pitcher on the market. He’s likely to land an annual salary similar to the value of the QO over a multi-year term.

Possible Candidates

A stable back-of-the-rotation strike-thrower, Anderson inked an $8MM guarantee with the Dodgers last year. The veteran southpaw responded with a career season, posting a sparkling 2.57 ERA across 178 2/3 innings. He walked fewer than 5% of opposing hitters and averaged almost six innings per appearance, an incredible source of stability in a rotation that dealt with a fair share of injuries.

Headed into his age-33 season, Anderson is now in position for easily the best payday of his career. The question is whether that might come in the form of the QO. The Dodgers certainly have the budget for an investment of that size, and they’re never shy about stockpiling pitching depth. Yet it’s fair to wonder whether Anderson projects markedly differently than he did last winter when he was coming off a combined 4.49 ERA from 2020-21. He benefited from a career-low .256 batting average on balls in play this year, and his 19.5% strikeout rate is a near-match for his 2021 mark. His fastball still averages under 91 MPH, and while he turned to his changeup more often this past season than he has previously, he didn’t dramatically overhaul his repertoire. Anderson’s a solid pitcher with a knack for getting opponents to chase and make weak contact, but he doesn’t brandish the kind of power arsenal that’d immediately endear him to teams.

Eovaldi is wrapping up a four-year deal he signed with the Red Sox on the heels of his incredible 2018 postseason. The right-hander had a tough 2019 season but has followed up with three generally solid years since then. Eovaldi has posted an ERA between 3.72 and 3.87 since 2020, consistent mid-rotation production. That’s in line with what he’s done for much of his career.

Despite possessing big velocity, Eovaldi’s more of a control artist than a bat-missing weapon at the top of the starting staff. He’s incredibly walked less than 5% of opposing hitters in each of the last three years, with a cumulative 4.4% mark that’s the second-lowest among 94 pitchers with 250+ innings over that stretch. He posts above-average swinging strike rates but not elite numbers in that regard, and he tends to give up a fair number of home runs.

One can argue Eovaldi’s the fourth or fifth-best free agent starter available, although he spent time on the injured list this year with separate back and shoulder concerns en route to just 109 1/3 innings. His typical 97+ MPH heater sat at a slightly diminished (but still strong) 95.7 MPH this year. Eovaldi has two Tommy John surgeries on his ledger and has some durability question marks, but a strong one-year risk could be palatable for a big-spending team that has virtually no certainty in the rotation. At the same time, the Sox would receive only a compensatory pick after the fourth round if he rejects a QO and departs, thanks to their paying the luxury tax in 2022. That’s of marginal value, so Boston’s only really incentivized to make a QO if they hope he accepts.

Despite playing his home games in one of the league’s more pitcher-friendly environments, Haniger popped 39 home runs in 2021. That was a career-best power spike, but it demonstrated the kind of offensive potential he has when healthy. The right-handed slugger posted well above-average hitting marks in 2017-18 before an average ’19 campaign and a 2020 season wiped out by injury. His 2022 showing was more in the latter bucket, as he lost a chunk of the summer to a high ankle sprain and posted a .246/.308/.429 line in 247 trips to the plate.

Haniger’s a middle-of-the-order caliber bat who plays an adequate corner outfield, and he should find a multi-year deal going into his age-32 campaign if the Mariners don’t make him a QO. On the heels of this platform season, he’d have to seriously consider accepting the QO if offered. Seattle has a fair bit of near-term financial flexibility to make that bet, but they also have a number of in-house outfielders who can step in more affordably if Haniger walks.

The Dodgers rolled the dice on Heaney after a home run-filled 2021 season, signing him for $8.5MM. The southpaw didn’t provide much volume, missing extended stretches of the year fighting shoulder discomfort. When he was healthy enough to take the mound, the 31-year-old was brilliant. Heaney posted a 3.10 ERA and struck out an incredible 35.5% of opposing hitters through 72 2/3 innings. He got a swinging strike on a whopping 16.8% of his offerings, the highest rate of any pitcher with 70+ innings pitched. Heaney put up ace-caliber numbers when he took the hill, but he pitched less than half the season and is only a year removed from a 5.83 ERA over 30 outings with the Angels and Yankees.

Unlike a few other pitchers on this list, one can easily point to a huge change with Heaney that could’ve spurred his breakout. He started throwing a slider for the first time since 2017, turning to it as his go-to secondary offering while ditching his curveball and scaling way back on his changeup usage. The new breaking ball was fantastic, holding opponents to a .170 batting average with one of the highest whiff rates in the league.

That leads to a tough decision for L.A. The Dodgers have shown as much willingness as any team to take short-term risks on high-upside players, including Heaney himself last winter. There’s a difference between an $8.5MM gamble and one pushing $20MM, but he could be next in the line of Kevin Gausman and Carlos Rodón breakout types if he can stay healthy.

A former top prospect, Pérez has bounced around the league but consistently put up below-average results after some early-career success. He returned to his original organization last offseason, inking a $4MM deal with the Rangers after a pair of rough seasons in Boston. That proved to be one of the better buy-low moves of the winter, as Pérez made 32 starts and soaked up 196 1/3 innings. He posted a 2.89 ERA, a top 25 mark among hurlers with 100+ innings. Despite pitching in the majors for over a decade, he’s only entering his age-32 season.

If the Rangers are confident Pérez can come close to replicating his 2022 production, then a QO would be an easy call. Yet it’s fair to wonder how sustainable the southpaw’s success is. He posted an ERA north of 4.00 every year between 2014-21. He didn’t experience any kind of velocity bump, nor did his strikeout and walk profile change. Pérez only punched out 20.6% of opponents on a meager 8.4% swinging strike rate. He did induce ground-balls at a quality 51.4% clip, but he’s previously posted strong grounder rates without finding much success keeping runs off the board. Pérez made some small tweaks to his repertoire, using his sinker more against right-handed batters while leaning a bit more heavily on his cutter against lefties. Without a massive overhaul or velocity spike, though, it’s hard to know how much of his improved results truly represent a step forward.

Rizzo inked a two-year, $32MM guarantee to return to the Yankees in Spring Training. The deal allowed him to opt out of the final $16MM after this season, and the first baseman now looks as if he’ll do so. After a couple fine but unspectacular years, Rizzo bounced back with a 32-homer showing for the first time since 2017. He only hit .224, but that’s largely due to a career-worst .216 batting average on balls in play. Few hitters in baseball were shifted against more often, and the upcoming limitations on shifting should help him find a few more base knocks. Even if the shift ban doesn’t lead to a jump in performance, his .224/.338/.480 mark through 548 plate appearances checked in 32 points above the league average by measure of wRC+.

Heading into his age-33 campaign, Rizzo’s likely limited to two or maybe three-year offers. Those should be at annual rates at least approaching the value of the qualifying offer. It seems unlikely Rizzo would accept a QO. After all, in order to be eligible for the qualifying offer, he’d first have to decline a $16MM salary for next year. Perhaps he’d be content to take the accompanying $3.65MM pay bump before re-testing free agency after 2023, but he’d presumably prefer a new multi-year arrangement. Even if he does accept the QO, the Yankees could find that a reasonable investment, as Rizzo’s high-contact lefty bat plays well in their ballpark and in a lineup that otherwise skews toward the right side.

Taillon has spent the past two years in the Bronx after coming over from the Pirates via trade. New York rolled the dice at the time, surrendering a few solid prospects for a pitcher who’d missed the 2020 season after undergoing the second Tommy John surgery of his career. Taillon rewarded their faith, posting the #3/4 starter-type numbers he had throughout his time in Pittsburgh. Over the past two years, the right-hander owns a 4.08 ERA through 61 starts in a hitter-friendly environment. He’s punched out a slightly below-average 21.9% of opponents but only walked 5.7% of batters faced, holding the opposition to a .242/.290/.426 line.

Heading into his age-31 season, Taillon is one of the better options in a class full of mid-rotation starters. He averages around 94 MPH with his fastball, throws plenty of strikes and has flashed the ability to both miss bats and keep the ball on the ground at times in his career. Taillon never became the ace some may have expected when he was drafted second overall back in 2010, but he’s a rock-solid league average starter. Clubs may have some trepidation long-term about the two Tommy John procedures in his past, but the only injured list stint he’s required in the last two years was a two-week absence in September 2021 for an ankle issue. The Yankees do have a number of rotation options, but there’s enough uncertainty with players like Luis Severino, Domingo Germán and Clarke Schmidt they’d seem content to welcome Taillon back if he accepts the QO.

Walker’s going to decline a $6MM player option in favor of a $3MM buyout, leaving the Mets to decide whether to follow up with a QO. Signed over the 2020-21 offseason, the right-hander had a somewhat disappointing first season in Queens, posting a 4.47 ERA. He rebounded with a strong 3.49 mark in 157 1/3 innings this past season, taking the ball 29 times despite a minor early-season IL stint due to shoulder bursitis. He didn’t overpower opponents, striking out a slightly below-average 20.3% of batters faced, but he consistently threw strikes and got ground-balls at an above-average 46.2% clip.

Heading into his age-30 season, Walker looks the part of a useful mid-rotation starter. He battled some injury issues early in his career but has mostly been healthy the last two years. He averages a bit under 94 MPH on his fastball, is effective against hitters from both sides of the plate and is coming off arguably the best season of his career. Walker gives up a decent amount of hard contact, but that’s perhaps not as concerning for a Mets team that plays its home games in a pitcher-friendly ballpark as it would be to some other clubs. The Mets have a number of impending free agents in the rotation and as high a spending ceiling as any team in the game, so they could be content to absorb a heavy one-year salary for Walker.

Longshots

Entering the season, Clevinger looked like one of the higher-upside options in the class. He was coming off a 2021 campaign lost to Tommy John surgery, but he’d been excellent for the Indians and Padres from 2017-20. This year didn’t go well, though. Clevinger’s stuff was notably down from his pre-surgery form, and his results were below-average across the board. He finished the season with two abysmal playoff starts, and the Padres are probably content to let him sign elsewhere.

Eflin had a solid case for a three-year deal midway through the first half. The typically effective right-hander then lost two months with a right knee injury, an unfortunate continuation of knee troubles that have plagued him since before he began his career. Eflin has undergone multiple knee surgeries in the past, and while he didn’t need to go under the knife this year, the absence kept him to working in shorter stints out of the bullpen for the stretch run and the playoffs. Coming off that platform season, it’s hard to see the Phillies offering a salary approaching $20MM.

Kershaw’s an easy QO candidate in a vacuum. He’s still one of the game’s best pitchers on a rate basis, and a $19.65MM salary is a bargain for even the 126 1/3 innings of 2.28 ERA ball he gave the Dodgers this past season. Yet that was also true last winter, when the future Hall of Famer was coming off a 3.55 mark across 121 2/3 frames. The Dodgers opted against a QO — not because they were against guaranteeing him a lofty one-year salary, but because they wanted to give Kershaw more than the 10 days allotted to QO recipients to determine his next steps, as president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman later explained. Friedman has already implied they’ll do the same this winter.

San Diego acquired Manaea from the A’s in Spring Training, hoping to solidify an already strong rotation with a durable source of mid-rotation innings. The southpaw mostly delivered on that for the first half, posting a 4.11 ERA through the All-Star Break. His final couple months were a disaster, though. Manaea was barraged for a 6.44 ERA in the second half, coughing up 15 homers along the way. The Friars gave him just one postseason start, and he failed to make it out of the second inning while giving up five runs in a loss to the Phillies. Before these past few months, Manaea had a consistently solid track record, and his 2022 strikeout and walk rates are in line with his career marks. He should be a popular bounceback candidate in free agency, but as with Clevinger, it feels like the Padres are set to move on.

Profar can opt out of the final year and $7.5MM on his deal with San Diego. He’ll do so and beat that modest figure on the heels of a useful .243/.331/.391 showing over 658 plate appearances. Profar has put up slightly above-average offensive numbers in two of the past three seasons, but he’s now limited to left field after throwing issues pushed him off second base. Without much defensive value or a carrying tool at the plate, he’s not going to command a salary approaching the value of the QO in free agency.

Stripling had a strong 2022 season as a swing option for the Blue Jays. He started 24 of 32 appearances, tallying 134 1/3 innings of 3.01 ERA ball. The veteran righty doesn’t throw particularly hard, but he missed bats on a decent 11% of his offerings and only walked 3.7% of opponents. Stripling proved a surprisingly key piece of the Jays starting staff, but he’s headed into his age-33 season and had a ghastly 5.14 ERA from 2020-21. Toronto could well look to bring him back, but his career track record doesn’t support a salary in the QO range.

Wacha put up a 3.32 ERA across 127 1/3 innings for the Red Sox this year, making good after inking a $7MM free agent guarantee. The righty didn’t dramatically overhaul his approach, though, posting lower strikeout and swinging strike numbers than he did during 2020-21 campaigns in which he combined for a 5.39 ERA over 37 outings. Wacha’s a solid strike-thrower and has given himself a shot at a multi-year deal, but it wasn’t the kind of resounding breakout that should position him for a salary pushing $20MM. Even for a Red Sox team that needs to overhaul its rotation, that’d be an eyebrow-raising investment, and it’s hard to imagine Wacha turning the QO down if offered.

Ineligible

All six of these players would’ve been at least plausible qualifying offer candidates, but they’re ineligible to receive one under the terms of the collective bargaining agreement. Teams can’t qualify any player who has previously received a QO in his career, nor are they allowed to tag a player they acquired midseason. The ’previous QO provision’ rules out Abreu, Correa and Verlander; Bell and Benintendi were traded midseason. Syndergaard is ineligible on both accounts.

Latest On Extension Talks Between Braves, Dansby Swanson

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There’s roughly a week until impending free agents are permitted to speak with other teams. Clubs have an exclusive negotiating window with their free agents for five days after the World Series wraps up.

An extension for any notable free agent this close to the offseason would register as a major surprise, but teams figure to keep in contact with their top players. The Braves and All-Star shortstop Dansby Swanson have talked potential contracts since at least mid-August. Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution wrote last month the sides had exchanged formal proposals, and Jon Heyman of the New York Post now sheds a bit more light on discussions. According to Heyman, the Braves made an offer in the $100MM range at some point during the season.

Precisely when the Braves made the proposal is unknown, but it’s now clear Swanson is in strong position to beat roughly $100MM on his next deal. He’s headed to free agency on the heels of a career year. The former first overall pick has always been a strong defensive shortstop, but he was arguably the game’s top defensive infielder in 2022. That earned him his first career Gold Glove a few months after his first trip to the Midsummer Classic. Swanson also had one of his top offensive showings, connecting on 25 home runs and posting a .277/.329/.447 line while playing in every one of Atlanta’s games.

Swanson’s production tailed off a bit in the second half, but his overall line checked in 16 points above league average by measure of wRC+. That’s right in line with the platform-year showing for Javier Báez and better than that of Trevor Story, each of whom were free agents in a loaded shortstop class last offseason. Both Báez and Story were going into their age-29 seasons, as Swanson is now. They each landed $140MM guarantees on the open market, and both players locked in opt-out clauses into their deals (although the Red Sox can override Story’s opt-out by triggering a club option for a 7th season). Swanson’s representatives at Excel Sports Management are surely well-aware of those recent precedents, and it stands to reason they could look to beat the $140MM mark.

Each of Swanson and Atlanta president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos has gone on record about a mutual desire to keep the shortstop in Atlanta. Swanson is a Georgia native who’s never played for another team at the big league level, and it stands to reason he’d be happy to stick around. Whether he’d take some kind of discount to do so isn’t known, although that he apparently turned down an offer in the realm of nine figures suggests he’s not completely averse to testing the market.

The Braves are a year removed from a high-profile stalemate with former franchise icon Freddie Freeman. Those talks reportedly hit a stumbling block over the Braves’ reluctance to go six guaranteed years, and Freeman eventually signed with the Dodgers after Atlanta pivoted to land and extend Matt Olson. Freeman was also an Excel Sports Management client at the time, but Swanson has consistently maintained that back-and-forth would have no bearing on his relationship with the Braves or his agency.

Obviously, that Swanson declined an extension offer isn’t a guarantee he’ll depart. Heyman reports that proposal was made at some point during the season, and Anthopoulos confirmed after their season wrapped up the team still had interest in a long-term deal. It stands to reason they’ve remained in contact and will continue to do so throughout the offseason. The Braves are sure to extend Swanson a qualifying offer next week, which he’ll reject in search of a much longer and loftier commitment.

Previewing The 2022-23 Free Agent Class: Left-Handed Relief

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Free agency kicks off roughly a week from now. MLBTR has gone around the diamond to take a position-by-position look at the upcoming class. As we round out those previews, we’ll turn our attention to the relief market. We begin today with the left-handed options.

High-Leverage Arms

It wasn’t a great 2022 campaign for Rogers, who found himself at the center of one of the summer’s more controversial trades. He was actually dealt twice this year, first going from the Twins to the Padres in a Opening Day swap that landed Chris Paddack in Minnesota. A few months later, he was a key piece of the rare deadline deal between contenders, with the Brewers acquiring him and a pair of prospects from San Diego for Josh Hader. It didn’t work out as intended, as Rogers surrendered six home runs and blew three leads in Milwaukee. His underperformance was part of an overall bullpen meltdown that contributed to the Brewers narrowly missing the postseason.

That said, there’s also plenty of reason for optimism moving forward. Part of the Brewers’ rationale in the Hader swap was that Rogers could somewhat closely approximate Hader’s production. That wasn’t unfounded, as he’s only a year removed from an All-Star appearance and had been one of the sport’s top late-game weapons. Rogers pitched to a 2.91 ERA with a lofty 31.2% strikeout rate and a meager 4.9% walk percentage from 2018-21 in Minnesota. An elevated batting average on balls in play contributed to an unimpressive 4.35 ERA during his half-season in San Diego, but he continued to post well above-average strikeout and walk marks there. He took that to another level in Milwaukee, fanning an incredible 36% of opponents as a Brewer.

There’s no question the home run barrage ended his season on a sour note, but it’s worth noting the longball was never really a problem for Rogers before those ghastly final two months. Opponents certainly aren’t going to continue to clear the fences on more than a quarter of fly balls against him over the long haul, and Rogers’ overall 30.7% strikeout percentage and 6.6% walk rate in 2022 aren’t far off his best marks in Minnesota. While a 4.76 ERA in his platform year wouldn’t suggest it, it’s not hard to still project him as an excellent high-leverage reliever based on the underlying marks.

Chafin has a $6.5MM player option with the Tigers, but Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press has already reported he’ll forego that and test the market. He’s certain to beat that amount in free agency, likely topping $6.5MM annually over a two-year deal.

Despite not possessing huge velocity, Chafin has posted above-average strikeout numbers in each of the past two years. He was particularly effective this past season, punching out 27.6% of opponents behind an excellent 13.9% swinging strike rate. He induced ground-balls at a very strong 51.3% clip and only walked 7.8% of batters faced. He’s posted a sub-3.00 ERA in each of the last two seasons, and he now owns a cumulative 2.29 mark while allowing a putrid .203/.268/.299 slash since the start of 2021.

There’s not much to nitpick in Chafin’s performance. He’ll be 33 next June and sits around 92 MPH with his fastball, but one can’t argue with the results. He’ll appeal to teams looking for a key late-inning southpaw, and he’s more than held his own against opponents from both sides of the dish.

Once the sport’s top pitching prospect, Moore had a lengthy but up-and-down career as a starting pitcher. He spent 2020 in Japan and a return to the U.S. with the Phillies last year was a disaster. He signed a minor league deal with the Rangers in Spring Training and made it to the big leagues in mid-April. Working fully in relief for the first time in his career, he proved a revelation for Texas.

Moore soaked up 74 innings over 63 appearances in Arlington, earning high-leverage work along the way. He pitched to a 1.95 ERA and while he’s not likely to sustain that level of run prevention long-term, there’s plenty to like in his underlying profile. Moore fanned an above-average 27.3% of opponents and racked up whiffs on almost 15% of his offerings. He averaged 93.9 MPH with plus spin on his four-seam and missed plenty of bats with a curveball and changeup alike. At 34 years old, he’ll probably max out at two-year offers, and an elevated 12.5% walk rate is a concern in the highest-leverage innings. Still, there’s little doubting the power stuff he brandished, and he could be on his way to a late-career renaissance in relief.

Strahm’s free agency is quietly one of the more interesting cases this winter. His stock as a traditional reliever is straightforward. Strahm gave the Red Sox 44 2/3 innings of 3.83 ERA ball this past season, assuming a fair amount of high-leverage work. He struck out an above-average 26.9% of opponents despite a modest 9.9% swinging strike rate and walked a roughly average 8.8% of batters faced.

He’d have a chance at a multi-year deal as a reliever, but Strahm has also spoken of his willingness to stretch back out as a starting pitcher if given the opportunity. There’s reason to believe he could have some success. Strahm was a highly-regarded starting pitching prospect during his days in the Royals’ farm system. He has decent control, handled left and right-handed batters alike this year, and mixes in four pitches with regularity. Strahm hasn’t been as forceful about his desire to sign with a team promising a rotation spot as Michael Lorenzen was last winter, and it’s possible his best fit will ultimately remain in the bullpen, but he could plausibly draw some interest as a starter.

Middle Relief Options

A starter throughout his time with the Tigers, Boyd flashed strong swing-and-miss potential at his best. He had an up-and-down tenure in Detroit but looked on his way to arguably his best season in 2021, working to a 3.89 ERA through 15 starts. Unfortunately, he battled arm issues during the second half of the season and underwent surgery to repair the flexor tendon in his forearm in September. With an expected recovery time of nearly a calendar year, the Tigers non-tendered him.

Boyd signed with the Giants to continue his rehab, but San Francisco flipped him to his hometown Mariners at the deadline before he threw a pitch in black and orange. Boyd was activated in September but forced to work in relief, as the approaching end of the season limited his time to build back into game shape. He struck out 13 but walked eight (three intentionally) through 13 1/3 innings. Boyd only faced three batters in the postseason, and he now heads back to the market with some uncertainty. Another team may be willing to give him a rotation audition after a healthy offseason, but he also figures to draw interest as a matchup weapon out of the bullpen.

A five-time All-Star and a Cy Young winner during his time as a starter, Price began to work primarily out of the bullpen in 2021. He pitched exclusively in relief for the Dodgers this year, tossing 40 1/3 innings through 40 outings. Price had a solid showing, putting up a 2.45 ERA and inducing ground-balls at a huge 55.8% clip. He only averaged 92.4 MPH on his sinker and had a well below-average 8% swinging strike rate, and there’s no question he was fortunate to post such an excellent run prevention mark. At the same time, his combination of grounders and strong control make him a viable middle innings fit. If Price wants to continue playing, he should find a guaranteed big league job.

Traded from the Yankees to the Mets just before Opening Day, Rodríguez spent the season in Queens. He was Buck Showalter’s primary left-handed option but had an up-and-down year. Through 50 1/3 innings, he allowed a 4.47 ERA. He had some unfortunate luck in stranding baserunners that probably inflated that number, but he also walked 12% of opponents. Paired with the spotty control was an enviable combination of whiffs and grounders, as he punched out 26.4% of batters faced and generated a grounder rate above 50%, as he has throughout his big league career. Rodríguez’s average sinker velocity was down to 92.7 MPH after sitting north of 94 MPH in 2021, but his performance was still solid enough he’s likely to land a big league contract.

Former Stars

Britton was arguably the game’s best reliever at his peak. He had a 0.54 ERA in 67 innings for the Orioles in a career-best 2016 campaign, but that was just one year in a four-season stretch of sub-3.00 marks. Britton remained eminently productive upon being traded to the Yankees, continuing to dominate opponents up through 2020. No one could match his ground-ball prowess, as he annually rode his incredible sinker to grounder rates north of 70%.

Unfortunately, Britton now heads to the market on the heels of two lost seasons. He pitched just 18 1/3 ineffective innings for the Yankees in 2021, battling elbow issues that eventually necessitated Tommy John surgery. He returned this past September in an attempt to crack New York’s playoff roster, but he clearly wasn’t right. Britton averaged just north of 92 MPH on his fastball, three to four ticks below his heyday. He walked six of the nine batters he faced before being shut down for the season because of shoulder discomfort. He’ll hope the offseason affords him a chance to regain his pre-2021 form. ESPN’s Marly Rivera reported in September that Britton and the Yankees were discussing a new contract, but nothing has come together thus far.

An overpowering late-game presence at his peak, Chapman was once perhaps the hardest thrower the game has ever seen. He routinely struck out north of 40% of opposing hitters and while he’s never had great control, his dominant stuff was more than enough to offset a few walks. Chapman has seven sub-3.00 ERA seasons on his resume and was rewarded with the largest reliever contract in MLB history — a five-year, $86MM pact heading into the 2017 campaign. After the 2019 season, the Yankees added an extra $18MM to that deal to keep him from triggering an opt-out clause.

Chapman was still effective up through last season. A fastball that once averaged north of triple digits “only” then sat around 98 MPH, but he continued to miss bats in droves and put up a 3.31 ERA between 2020-21. His 2022 season was an unmitigated disaster, however. Chapman still averaged 97.5 MPH on his fastball, but his formerly otherworldly strikeout rate dropped to a merely good 26.9%. He also walked nearly 18% of opponents en route to a personal-worst 4.46 ERA in 36 1/3 innings. He missed time late in the regular season after a bad tattoo led to a leg infection, and the Yankees left him off their postseason roster after he failed to show up for a team workout. It was a dreadful platform season, but Chapman’s still among the harder throwers in the sport and had a long pre-2022 track record as an elite reliever.

Hand was among the game’s best relievers from 2016-20. He posted a sub-3.00 mark in four of those five seasons and earned a trio of All-Star berths. A velocity dip during the 2020 season contributed to Cleveland’s surprising decision to cut him loose despite a 2.05 ERA through 22 innings. Hand split the 2021 season between three teams before signing a one-year deal with Philadelphia last winter.

Over 45 regular season innings, Hand posted a fine 2.80 ERA. That’s largely attributable to some ball in play fortune and an extremely low home run rate, though. His 19.2% strikeout rate and 11.6% walk percentage are each markedly worse than average, and he’s gotten swinging strikes on only 7.3% of his pitches. He may be hard-pressed to match the $6MM guarantee he landed from the Phillies last winter.

Minor League Deal Candidates

  • José Álvarez (34): Álvarez had a quality 2021 season, but he managed just a 5.28 ERA through 15 1/3 innings in 2022. He underwent Tommy John surgery in September and is likely to miss all of next season.
  • Anthony Banda (30): Banda suited up for three different teams in 2022, frequently shuttling around the waiver wire. He allowed a 6.75 ERA over 26 2/3 innings. A former top prospect, he averaged north of 95 MPH on his fastball this year.
  • Danny Coulombe (33): Coulombe has carved out a decent career as a strike-throwing depth arm despite lacking huge velocity. He had a rough 2022 season, though, putting up nine strikeouts and walks apiece in 12 1/3 innings for the Twins. He only allowed three runs, but Minnesota nevertheless cut him loose after the season because of the poor peripherals.
  • Austin Davis (30): Davis spent the bulk of the season with the Red Sox but had a brief look with the Twins after being claimed off waivers. Between the two teams, he posted a 5.79 ERA over 56 innings. He struck out a solid 24.2% of opponents and averaged above 94 MPH on his fastball, but he walked 12.5% of batters faced. He cleared waivers late in the season and reached minor league free agency.
  • Ross Detwiler (37): Detwiler made 30 appearances for the Reds after signing a minor league deal. He put up a 4.44 ERA despite average strikeout and walk numbers before being outrighted off the 40-man roster in late August.
  • Sean Doolittle (36): A two-time All-Star, Doolittle has settled into journeyman territory over the past three seasons. He returned to the Nationals, where he had some of his best years, for the 2022 campaign. After starting the year with 5 1/3 innings of scoreless, one-hit ball, he suffered ligament damage in his elbow that necessitated a UCL brace procedure in mid-July. That ended his year. He’s expected to be healthy for 2023 but may have to pitch his way back onto a big league roster as a non-roster invitee to Spring Training.
  • Paul Fry (30): Fry looked like he’d broken out with a strong 2020 and excellent first half in ’21 for the Orioles. Things have fallen apart since that year’s All-Star Break, as he has an 11.70 ERA in 20 MLB innings dating back to last August. The Diamondbacks took a shot on him in May but let him go three months later.
  • Adam Kolarek (34): Kolarek barely touches 90 MPH with his fastball and doesn’t miss bats, but he annually posts elite ground-ball numbers. He put up a 4.58 ERA in 17 2/3 innings for the A’s this season and was let go in late June.
  • T.J. McFarland (34): A soft-tossing grounder specialist, McFarland had some success for the Cardinals in 2021. The veteran had a rough ’22 campaign, pitching to a 6.61 ERA with a personal-worst (but still strong) 53% grounder rate before losing his big league roster spot in mid-August.
  • Jake McGee (36): McGee was an excellent closer for the Giants in 2021, but this past season was a disaster. He suited up for three different teams after bouncing around the waiver wire but didn’t find success at any of those stops. Between the Giants, Brewers and Nationals, he posted a 6.81 ERA with just a 15.3% strikeout rate over 37 frames.
  • Tommy Milone (36): A quintessential journeyman, Milone has bounced around the league thanks to his excellent control. He doesn’t throw hard or miss bats, but he pounds the strike zone and can make a spot start or work in long relief. He played the latter role for this year’s Mariners, tossing 16 2/3 innings over seven relief outings. He posted a 5.40 ERA with five strikeouts and six walks.
  • Sean Newcomb (30): Newcomb’s a former top prospect who once looked like a potential rotation building block for the Braves. He’s been hit hard since the start of 2020, however. This past season was especially rough, as he managed only an 8.78 ERA through 27 2/3 innings with astronomical walk and home run rates while bouncing on and off the Atlanta and Cubs rosters. Newcomb throws in the mid-90’s and has a strong prospect pedigree, so he’ll find minor league interest.
  • Daniel Norris (30): Norris had a bizarre 2022 season. Despite a stellar 32.1% strikeout rate as a member of the Cubs early in the year, he was tagged for a 6.90 ERA through 30 innings thanks to huge walk and home run rates. That led to a release, although he returned to the majors with the Tigers not long after. In Detroit, Norris lost his strikeouts but also got the walks and the longball under control en route to a 3.45 ERA in 28 2/3 frames.
  • Josh Rogers (28): Rogers came out of the bullpen for 13 of 16 outings with the Nationals. He worked to a 5.13 ERA, striking out just 10.6% of batters faced, before being outrighted off the 40-man roster.
  • Dillon Peters (31): Peters spent this past season as a swing option for the Pirates. He tossed 39 1/3 innings across 22 games (four starts), working to a 4.58 ERA with a 15.8% strikeout rate despite averaging a personal-best 92.5 MPH on his sinker.
  • Chasen Shreve (32): Shreve has flashed swing-and-miss potential throughout his career, and he fanned a solid 25.8% of opponents with the Mets this year. He was tagged for six home runs in just 26 1/3 innings en route to a 6.49 ERA, however, sitting below 91 MPH with his fastball. The Mets cut him loose in mid-July, and he finished the season in Triple-A with the Yankees.

Players With Club Options

  • Will Smith, Astros hold $13MM option, $1MM buyout

Houston acquired Smith in a deadline swap that sent Jake Odorizzi to the Braves. Strike-throwing issues had contributed to a 4.38 ERA in Atlanta, but he righted the ship upon landing in Houston. Smith posted a 3.27 ERA with an above-average 26.7% strikeout rate and an excellent 4.4% walk percentage through 22 innings in Houston. He’s gotten whiffs on an incredible 17.3% of his offerings as an Astro and has allowed just 11 of the 46 left-handed hitters he’s faced to reach base (.239 OBP). It’s a $12MM decision for Houston, and that’s likely to go beyond their comfort zone given his ups and downs in Atlanta, particularly as they see a number of key players hit free agency. If he’s bought out, however, Smith will be one of the better left-handed options in the class. He also has a fair bit of closing experience, so teams shouldn’t have any trepidation about entrusting him with high-leverage plate appearances.

Wilson exercised a $2.3MM player option to return to the Reds this past season. His deal contained a provision that tacked on a 2023 club option for $500K north of the league minimum if he triggered that player option, so the Reds will have a chance to bring him back for a modest $1.22MM next year. Even that seems unlikely, as the veteran underwent Tommy John surgery in June. He won’t be ready until late in the ’23 campaign at the earliest and could plausibly miss the entire season.

Previous installments:Catcher, First Base, Second Base, Third Base, Shortstop, Corner outfields, Center Field, Designated Hitter, Starting Pitcher

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