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AL East Notes: Brach, Orioles, Ellsbury, Yankees, JDM

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Trade rumblings around Orioles righty Brad Brach have settled down in the wake of Zach Britton’s Achillies injury, as Baltimore will be turning to Brach as closer for at least half of the 2018 season.  As Brach explained in an appearance on 105.7 The Fan’s “Orioles Hot Stove Show” (hat tip to MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko), however, he doesn’t mind being part of the speculation.

“I definitely pay attention to it and it’s easy to do in the offseason because it’s not affecting your work,” Brach said.  “You don’t have to go in the mornings and go to MLBTradeRumors or turn on MLB Network and see your name and go to the park that night and pitch. The offseason you have all day and all night to kind of just sit there and mess around. And being from New Jersey, a lot of my friends are my fans, and as soon as my name got brought up I had a group text message and there were probably 50 text messages sent to me in about three minutes, so it’s hard to ignore it and especially in the offseason. I kind of like it. It’s fun. It kind of makes these winter months not drag as much.”

Thanks for the shoutout, Brad, even if MLBTR might not be causing quite as many text explosions in the near future.  Some more from around the AL East…

  • “The Orioles actually like (Jacoby) Ellsbury a little,” Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes, though several hurdles stand in the way of the Yankees managing to deal the veteran outfielder.  New York would have to eat the big majority of the $68.5MM remaining on Ellsbury’s contract, and he may prefer to only waive his no-trade protection for a deal that would send him closer to his home in Arizona.  Ellsbury-to-Baltimore was first floated by the Yankees as part of trade talks about Manny Machado, though obviously the O’s would need a lot more than Ellsbury for such a deal given how Ellsbury has struggled in each of the last three seasons.  While the Orioles’ interest in Ellsbury may be muted, his addition would bring more left-handed balance to Baltimore’s lineup and also perhaps open the door for Adam Jones to shift to right field.
  • Ellsbury’s deal is the biggest obstacle facing the Yankees in their desire to both make further upgrades (including some potential big names) to their roster while also staying until the $197MM competitive balance tax threshold.  Since an Ellsbury trade could be a tall order, Sherman writes that David Robertson might be the biggest trade chip “within reason” that would allow the Bronx Bombers to both move a large salary and score a quality return.  Robertson is owed $13MM in 2018, his final year under contract, and Sherman wonders if a closer-needy team like the Cardinals would part with MLB-ready young talent for Robertson’s services.  This does seem to be speculation, however, as Sherman notes that the Yankees have shown no willingness to trade from their loaded bullpen, plus Robertson is a closer-in-waiting should Aroldis Chapman get injured.
  • The Red Sox are reportedly wary of giving J.D. Martinez more than five guaranteed years, which is a justifiable stance given how often longer-term contracts have backfired on teams (including the Sox themselves).  WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford, however, presents the counterpoint, noting that an elite hitter like Martinez is a safer investment for a six- or seven-year deal since clubs like the Red Sox can eventually move him to a DH role.  Boston has a clear need for a middle-of-the-order bat now, which Bradford feels Martinez can certainly fill in the short term given that the slugger (despite some recent injuries) has shown no signs of slowing down at the plate.  MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list predicted that Martinez would indeed land a contract beyond the five-year threshold, pegging him for six years and $150MM.

MLBTR Originals

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Here is the past week’s worth of original content from the MLBTR writing team…

Mets Notes: Harrison, McCutchen, Lagares, Kendrick

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Here are the latest rumblings from Citi Field, courtesy of Mike Puma of the New York Post…

  • The recent talks between the Mets and Pirates about Andrew McCutchen may have actually been more focused around Josh Harrison, who has long been cited as a Mets target for their hole at second base.  According to Puma, the Mets would’ve taken on the salaries of McCutchen ($14.75MM) and Harrison ($10MM in 2018, plus club options in 2019-20), preferring to give Pittsburgh salary relief rather than to deal prospects from New York’s thin farm system.  Of course, the Mets have payroll restrictions of their own, which is why Juan Lagares (owed $15.5MM in 2018-19) would “almost certainly” have been going back to the Pirates in such a deal to help balance out the salaries.  In my view, this trade doesn’t make much sense for the Pirates unless the Mets added significant minor league talent — Harrison and McCutchen are both quality trade chips for the Bucs, not mere salary dump candidates.  A source tells Puma that a trade between the Mets and Pirates continues to remain unlikely.
  • As for other second base options beyond Harrison, “Howie Kendrick is viewed by the Mets as a potential fit” due to his positional versatility and his reputation as a clubhouse leader.  The Blue Jays and, potentially, the Nationals have been the only other teams linked to Kendrick this winter; interestingly, reports from a month ago indicated that the Mets weren’t interested in Kendrick, though obviously plans can change over the course of offseason business.  Injuries limited Kendrick to 91 games and 344 PA last season, though the veteran was very productive (.315/.368/.475) when he was on the field for the Phillies and Nationals.  Kendrick has seen much more time as an outfielder than as a second baseman over the last two years, though the Mets could deploy him all over the diamond rather than in a strict everyday role at the keystone.

Rosenthal’s Latest: Lynn, Cobb, Cashner, Soria, Bour, Swihart

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Here are some hot stove-related items from The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (subscription required and recommended)…

  • The Nationals have interest in free agent righty Lance Lynn, though a signing would further put the team over the luxury tax threshold.  Washington has been circling the starting pitching market all winter, with Jake Arrieta standing out as the top-tier name most often mentioned as a possibility due to the well-documented relationship between Nats ownership and Scott Boras (Arrieta’s agent).  Arrieta, however, would be a considerably pricier signing than Lynn, though Lynn wouldn’t be cheap himself; MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes projects Lynn for four years and $60MM.
  • Alex Cobb isn’t looking for a $20MM average annual value in his next contract, according to “officials on both sides of the Cubs’ negotiations with” the free agent right-hander.  Reports that this inflated asking price spurred the Cubs’ interest in Yu Darvish as an alternative to Cobb are also not accurate, as per these same officials.
  • The Orioles recently met with Andrew Cashner and his representatives.  Baltimore’s interest in Cashner dates back to at least the start of the offseason, and the O’s are still in sore need of arms to bolster their weak rotation.  There hasn’t been a ton of buzz about Cashner on the rumor mill, though he is still reportedly looking for a three-year deal and there seems to be at least some interest between Cashner and the Rangers.
  • The Athletics also had interest in Joakim Soria before the Royals dealt him to the White Sox earlier this week.  Soria would’ve given the A’s extra closing depth behind Blake Treinen, and Oakland could also have potentially looked to move Soria at the trade deadline.  The A’s have already made two notable additions (Yusmeiro Petit and Emilio Pagan) to their bullpen mix this winter, and it stands to reason that they could still be looking for more veteran relief help after missing out on Soria.
  • Teams continue to ask the Marlins about Justin Bour, though the club wasn’t listening to offers about the first baseman during the Winter Meetings.  Bour is one of Miami’s more intriguing long-term assets, just entering his arbitration years and coming off a season that saw him his .289/.366/.536 with 25 homers in 429 plate appearances.  Bour’s age (he turns 3o in May) and the amount of depth at the first base position makes Bour a less-valuable trade chip for Miami than Christian Yelich or J.T. Realmuto, though obviously the Fish would still garner a lot of interest in Bour if they made him available.
  • Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said the Sox “are not looking to move” Blake Swihart, despite trade interest from other teams.  The last two seasons were essentially a writeoff for Swihart, due to defensive issues behind the plate and ankle injuries that limited him to just 91 minor league games and 25 MLB games in 2016-17.  Still, the Sox haven’t given up on the former top prospect, with Dombrowski noting that Swihart’s positional versatility has helped add to his value for the team.  While Dombrowski noted that “you could never say you would not move him or anyone else,” Swihart is “still part of our plans….Sometimes you get stuck with players who are out of options. In this case, because of his flexibility, I think we’ve got a little better chance of getting through it.”

Quick Hits: Kimbrel, Royals, Free Agents

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Jayson Stark’s “Strange But True Facts” column is an annual tradition for baseball fans, and Stark is here with the 2017 edition of unusual statistical and factual oddities from the past season.  Highlights include Matt Chapman’s odd do-over on his first career MLB hit, Travis d’Arnaud’s 22-position game on August 16, and the All-Garcia starting outfield deployed by the White Sox on April 14.

Some more from around baseball…

  • Could Craig Kimbrel earn a $100MM free agent contract next offseason?  WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford thinks it could happen, especially after Wade Davis’ three-year, $52MM deal with the Rockies established a new average annual value standard for a closer.  Kimbrel turns 30 in May and is coming off one of his greatest seasons — a 1.43 ERA, 16.4 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 over 69 innings out of the Red Sox bullpen.  Aroldis Chapman’s five-year, $86MM deal with the Yankees from last winter is the largest contract ever given to a relief pitcher, though Chapman signed that deal entering his age-29 season, whereas Kimbrel turns 30 in May.  Kimbrel still stands a decent shot at topping Chapman’s mark, though cracking the $100MM threshold seems like a tall order.
  • The Royals went into the offseason hoping to re-sign maybe one of Eric Hosmer (their top choice), Lorenzo Cain, and Mike Moustakas, though the Kansas City Star’s Rustin Dodd wonders if the team could re-assess its plans given the unexpectedly slow free agent market.  All three players are still available as the calendar turns to January, and in the cases of Hosmer and Moustakas, they seem to be running short on viable landing spots.  Re-signing any of those free agents, however, would cost the Royals compensation draft picks, which are valuable assets for a team that is looking at a rebuild.  Dodd notes that K.C. was able to re-sign Alex Gordon when his free agent market proved to be quieter than expected, though given how Gordon has struggled over the last two years, the Royals probably aren’t thrilled with that comp.
  • One of the reasons behind the lack of free agent action could be that teams are simply more cautious about the risk of spending big on a veteran player, Joel Sherman of the New York Post opines.  Of the 14 current players on free agent deals with a $20MM average annual value and worth more than $100MM in total, only Max Scherzer and Jon Lester seem like clear wins for their teams, while the other 12 players range from questionable investments to outright busts.  Sherman proposes that players should be allowed to become free agents after just four years of service time, arguing that the current free agent setup is “a flawed system” that doesn’t properly compensate players through their prime years.

NL Notes: Clemente, Harper, D’Backs

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New Year’s Eve has long been a somber day in baseball history, as it was on this day in 1972 that Pirates superstar Roberto Clemente was killed in a plane crash at age 38.  The outfielder was personally accompanying a shipment of relief supplies headed from his native Puerto Rico to victims of a recent earthquake in Nicaragua, but the flight tragically crashed just off the P.R. coast.  Clemente’s passing inspired the creation of the Presidential Citizens Medal, the United States’ second-highest civilian honor.  Clemente’s legacy is acknowledged every year by MLB via the Roberto Clemente Award, and there has been speculation that Clemente’s #21 will one day be retired league-wide as a way of honoring his heroism and his iconic status in Latin American baseball.

As we remember one of the game’s true legends, here are some items from the National League…

  • One interesting wild card in the Nationals’ attempts to keep Bryce Harper beyond 2018 could be his older brother Bryan Harper, MASNSports.com’s Byron Kerr writes.  The elder Harper, who just turned 28, is a left-handed reliever who posted strong numbers in 2015-16 for Washington’s Double-A and Triple-A affiliates, with good splits against left-handed batters.  The southpaw is preparing to return to the mound after undergoing Tommy John surgery in October 2016, and there’s at least a chance he could join his younger brother on the Nats roster this season.
  • While Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen has said that the team is comfortable deploying Chris Herrmann, Jeff Mathis, and John Ryan Murphy behind the plate, MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert figures the team has to make an upgrade at catcher before the offseason is out.  The D’Backs are one of the few contenders with a glaring need at catcher, which in my opinion could leave them well-positioned to sign Jonathan Lucroy or Alex Avila on a relative bargain contract, given the two free agents’ relative lack of suitors.  With other needs around the diamond and little payroll space to work with, however, the Snakes still might not have enough to afford Lucroy or Avila at even a discounted price.

MLBTR Originals

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Here’s the roundup of all the original content from the MLBTR writing team through the holiday season…

  • The offseason’s biggest news continues to be the relative lack of news on the free agent front, with most of the top names on the open market still looking for new teams as we head into 2018.  Back on December 19, Jeff Todd noted that only 17 of the names on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list had signed new contracts.  Since that date, only three additional players (Wade Davis, Yonder Alonso, Jhoulys Chacin) have signed, with Davis being the only member of the top 10 to find a new deal.
  • Two of the remaining notables were subjects of the “Free Agent Profile” series, with Kyle Downing profiling Logan Morrison and Tim Dierkes looking at Lance Lynn’s market.
  • Lynn is one of a large number of free agent pitchers who have undergone at least one Tommy John surgery, so Tim’s list of the 20 biggest contracts signed by TJ patients will certainly look quite different after this offseason is complete.
  • The Phillies’ surprise signing of Carlos Santana inspired Tim to look at five recent instances of a seeming non-contender making a big free agent splash.
  • In the latest edition of Free Agent Faceoff, Steve Adams asked the MLBTR readership whether they would rather sign Yu Darvish or Jake Arrieta.  60.23% of readers polled chose Darvish in the battle of the winter’s top free agent starters.
  • In other polling news, Connor Byrne asked the readers where Eric Hosmer will sign, Tim made the same query about Arrieta’s next team, while Kyle wondered if any of the top free agents could sign a one-year “pillow contract” rather than a longer-term deal.
  • The “Taking Inventory” series lists the potential remaining trade chips on rebuilding teams, with Steve looking at the Tigers and Kyle focusing on the White Sox and the Marlins.
  • Speaking of Miami, J.T. Realmuto could be the latest Marlins star to be shipped out of town, as Kyle runs through the potential trade market for the catcher.
  • Mark Polishuk outlined each team’s weakest position from 2017 (by bWAR) and what each club has so far done (if anything) to upgrade that position for next season.
  • Several managers and front office executives are known to be entering their last guaranteed year under contract, and Jeff has the breakdown of these teams that could be weighing a change in leadership in 2018.
  • We just passed the two-year anniversary of the trade that sent Aroldis Chapman from the Reds to the Yankees.  Jeff looked back on that deal, which generated quite a bit of off-the-field controversy and ultimately generated more top tier young talent for the Yankees (via their subsequent trade of Chapman to the Cubs) than it did for Cincinnati.

NL Notes: Phillies, Hamels, Difo, Cubs

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Happy birthday to Sandy Koufax, as the legendary Dodgers southpaw turns 82 years old today.  Arm injuries forced Koufax into an early retirement after his age-30 season, bringing an end to arguably the most dominant four-year stretch of pitching in baseball history.  From 1963-66, Koufax posted a 1.86 ERA, 9.3 K/9, and 4.74 K/BB rate over 1192 2/3 innings, capturing three Cy Young Awards and the 1963 NL MVP Award.

Some items from around the National League…

  • Nick Williams seems to be the likeliest of the Phillies outfielders to be used as a trade chip, David Murphy of the Philadelphia Daily News writes, though there’s also a case to be made for the team to move one of Odubel Herrera or Aaron Altherr.  (Rhys Hoskins almost surely is staying put.)  Given that all three outfielders, and even Hoskins, have their share of question marks and can’t be entirely counted on as sure things going into 2018, Murphy notes that the Phillies might indeed stick to their stated plan of keeping all four players and juggling playing time based on matchups and situations.  Plans could change, of course, if the Phils are required to include one of the players in a trade for a young and controllable starting pitcher.
  • The Phillies are known to be looking for pitching, though NBCSports.com Philadelphia’s Jim Salisbury writes that the team could wait until the July trade deadline to make a big addition to the rotation.  Asking prices could be lower for some pitchers by July, or the Phillies could have a better idea of what young players they’d be more comfortable giving up in a trade.  Interestingly, Salisbury notes that Cole Hamels could be targeted by the Phils if the Rangers fall out of contention, as both Hamels and the Phillies would have interest in the 2008 World Series hero returning to Philadelphia.
  • The Nationals rejected trade offers for Wilmer Difo last offseason, and now the young infielder is a key part of the team’s bench and potentially its second baseman of the future, the Washington Post’s Jorge Castillo writes.  Difo held his own filling in for Trea Turner at shortstop last season, and if Difo continues to progress at the plate, the Nats might consider him as a possible second base option if Daniel Murphy leaves in free agency next winter.  If Murphy’s recovery from offseason knee surgery lingers past Opening Day, Difo could get an early audition at the keystone in April.
  • Since Theo Epstein took over the Cubs front office, pitchers drafted by the team have delivered just 30 innings in a Cubs uniform, The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma reports (subscription required and recommended).  While Chicago has obviously excelled at acquiring undervalued starting pitching assets in trades, that hasn’t stopped the club from looking to improve on its development of young pitchers, which was one reason Jim Benedict was recently hired as a special assistant within the baseball ops department.

No Extension Talks Between Twins, Brian Dozier

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The Twins have yet to speak to Brian Dozier about a contract extension, the second baseman tells Sid Hartman of the Minneapolis Star Tribune.  With Dozier entering the last season of his contract, the two sides have had “zero conversations about after next year,” Dozier said.

The lack of negotiations isn’t necessarily a surprise at this point in the offseason, of course, as most teams generally handle focus on signings, trade talks, and arbitration cases before turning their attention to in-house extensions.  (This winter’s particularly-stalled free agent market could even delay extension business later into Spring Training than usual for some clubs.)  Beyond Dozier, the Twins also have Joe Mauer and Eduardo Escobar slated to hit the open market after the 2018 season, with Ervin Santana and Fernando Rodney also candidates for free agency depending on club options.

Still, Dozier stands out as Minnesota’s top impending free agent priority, though the idea of an extension between the two sides (or even Dozier still being in a Twins uniform entering 2018) seemed far-fetched at this point last year.  Dozier has long been the subject of trade rumors, and at one point in the 2016-17 offseason seemed to be on the verge of being dealt to the Dodgers.  Even last summer, Dozier was one of several Twins veterans the team was weighing as trade chips, though Minnesota eventually rebounded to capture a berth in the AL Wild Card game.

Last season’s surprising success changed the equation for the Twins, who are now exploring ways to build around its young core of talent in the hopes of contending again next year.  As such, keeping Dozier now looks like it could be a possibility, particularly since Minnesota has quite a bit of payroll flexibility beyond the 2018 season.  (Of course, the Twins might add to those future commitments in a significant way this offseason should they land a top free agent pitcher.)

Dozier is finishing up a previous extension with the Twins, a four-year/$20MM deal that covered his final pre-arbitration season and his three years of arbitration eligibility.  That contract ended up being a nice bargain for the Twins through Dozier’s arb years, as he has continued to perform as one of the game’s best second basemen, particularly over the last two seasons.  Dozier has hit .269/.349/.521 with 76 homers and 34 steals (out of 43 chances) over 1396 PA since the start of the 2016 season, accumulating 10.9 fWAR over that period.  From 2014-17, Dozier has been worth 18.8 fWAR, a total topped by only 13 other position players in all of baseball.

Dozier turns 31 in May, so an extension carries some risk as it would be covering a potential decline period as he leaves his prime.  The lack of return on the Twins’ extensions for Mauer and Phil Hughes could also make the team wary about another long-term deal.  On the flip side, Dozier has been a durable player, and 2017 was his most polished season yet as a hitter, with Fangraphs’ Jeff Sullivan noting Dozier’s increased success at hitting to the opposite field.

In his preview of the Twins’ offseason, MLBTR’s Steve Adams cited Daniel Murphy’s three-year, $37.5MM deal with the Nationals or Justin Turner’s four-year, $64MM Dodgers contract as potential talking points for a Dozier extension, with Turner’s deal standing out as the better comparable.  One interesting wrinkle could be the fact that, without an extension, Dozier would be competing with several other superstar players in the very crowded 2018-19 free agent class.  Dozier would have an advantage, however, as the clear top option on the second base market.

If an extension isn’t worked out, the Twins will likely explore trading Dozier at the deadline if the team falls out of contention.  For now, however, it looks like the Twins aren’t moving the second baseman, which is something Dozier appreciates after so much past speculation.  “It’s kind of funny how winning can change a lot of different things as far as offseason trade talks,” Dozier said.  “I recognize it’s a business. We all do. But it has been pretty relieving not hearing my name every single day about where I might be traded. That’s a good thing.”

Minor MLB Transactions: 12/30/17

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Some minor moves from around baseball…

  • The Padres released right-hander Jake Smith earlier this month, according to Baseball America’s Matt Eddy.  Originally a 48th-round pick for the Giants in the 2011 draft, Smith has a 3.23 ERA, 11.9 K/9 and 2.86 K/BB rate over 253 2/3 minor league innings, working as a reliever in all but five of his 186 career appearances.  He managed just 26 2/3 IP in 2017, however, with injuries limiting his time on the field.  Smith’s only MLB experience consists of four innings for San Diego in 2016.

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