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Quick Hits: Ichiro, Orioles, Duffy, Twins

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Ichiro Suzuki’s agent, John Boggs, tells Barry Bloom of MLB.com that he’s still holding out hope that the 44-year-old will land an offer from a big league club this offseason rather than return to Japan. Boggs had talks with both the Mariners and Padres, but neither of those now looks likely to come to fruition. He also notes that he’d spoken to the Mets before they signed Jay Bruce, as well as the Reds when they were more heavily exploring the market for Billy Hamilton. Boggs tells Bloom that there are still a half-dozen teams that continue to tell him to check back later in the winter once it’s clearer how the market will play out, but it remains unclear whether Ichiro will have a legitimate opportunity to return for an 18th Major League season.

A few other notes as another quiet week of free agency nears its conclusion…

  • Though the stagnant offseason has been frustrating across the board, it may be particularly exhausting for Orioles fans, as the club is known to be looking for two or three starters, an outfielder, a utility infielder and some catching depth. Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com writes that all of that is still in the works, and he spoke with manager Buck Showalter about the team’s offseason pursuits at length. Showalter suggests that the O’s are “down the road real deep on a lot of guys,” adding that GM Dan Duquette has discussed “offers and physicals” with one particular right field target. Showalter adds that a Chris Tillman reunion remains possible. The free agent has been working out at the Orioles’ spring complex in Sarasota, Fla. — a favor granted by the team to their longtime rotation stalwart.
  • Royals left-hander Danny Duffy has pleaded guilty to driving under the influence after initially filing a plea of not guilty upon being cited for a DUI last August, according to the Kansas City Star’s Rustin Dodd. The 29-year-old has been placed on probation and must refrain from drinking and using illegal drugs over the course of a one-year term. He’ll be subject to random breath, blood and urine tests as part of his probation, Dodd adds.
  • The Twins have hired three-time All-Star Jim Kaat as a special assistant in their front office, the team announced. The 79-year-old Kaat enjoyed an excellent 25-year career, starring for the Senators/Twins franchise in 15 of those seasons (3.34 ERA, 133 complete games, 23 shutouts over the life of 3014 1/3 innings). He joins Twins legends Rod Carew, Tony Oliva, Tom Kelly and Kent Hrbek in a role that will see him “engage in various Twins community and business initiatives both in Minnesota as well as Southwest Florida,” per the Twins’ press release announcing the hiring.

Royals Agree To Minor League Deal With Tyler Collins

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The Royals and outfielder Tyler Collins are in agreement on a minor league pact, tweets SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo. He’s represented by the Beverly Hills Sports Council.

Collins, 28 in June, is no stranger to the AL Central after spending parts of the past four seasons with the Tigers. The former sixth-round pick (2011) at times looked like he could lock down a fairly significant role in Detroit. The 2015 campaign saw Collins take 207 plate appearances with the big league club and post a solid, if unspectacular .266/.316/.417 slash. At the very least, the Tigers’ confidence in his ability to play all three outfield spots made him a candidate to stick around as a fourth outfielder.

From 2016-17, though, Collins’ offensive production tumbled in significant fashion (.213/.291/.357) — a decline that prompted the Tigers to designate him for assignment midway through the 2017 campaign. Collins cleared waivers and stuck with the organization, returning later in the year only to be outrighted once again in October, at which point he filed for minor league free agency.

[Related: Updated Kansas City Royals depth chart]

While Collins clearly doesn’t have much in the way of MLB success under his belt, he did hit .288/.358/.462 in Triple-A this past season. At the very least, he’ll give the Royals a depth option for an outfield that looks anything but settled. With Lorenzo Cain’s likely departure via free agency, the Royals will deploy Alex Gordon in left field (in hopes of a significant rebound), while Paulo Orlando, Billy Burns, Jorge Bonifacio and Jorge Soler split up the remaining outfield reps.

AL Notes: Herrera, Royals, Astros, Twins, Rodney

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The Royals are prepared to keep reliever Kelvin Herrera if someone doesn’t offer “a huge haul” for him, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe writes. Kansas City seems poised to begin a rebuild in 2018, which is Herrera’s last year of team control – two factors that make him a potential trade chip. Now doesn’t seem to be the ideal time to demand a major return for Herrera, though, considering his numbers trended in the wrong direction in 2017. After recording a 2.75 ERA with 10.75 K/9 and 1.5 BB/9 in 72 innings in 2016, Herrera pitched to a 4.25 ERA and posted 8.49 K/9 against 3.03 BB/9 across 59 1/3 frames last season. The 28-year-old also saw his swinging-strike percentage plummet from 15.2 to 11.5, even though he continued to offer imposing velocity.

More from the American League:

  • Astros general manager Jeff Luhnow told reporters Saturday that he’s “very happy” with his current roster, one he thinks is capable of winning a second straight championship in 2018, and added that “we’re in a good spot because we don’t have to do anything.” Luhnow also noted that, although things have been slow to develop across the majors this offseason, free agents and possible trade acquisitions who would improve the Astros would still require “a significant investment.” It seemed earlier this week that Luhnow was set to make such an investment in Pirates right-hander Gerrit Cole, but a deal still hasn’t materialized. Luhnow has addressed the Astros pitching in other ways this offseason, though, having added Joe Smith and Hector Rondon to their bullpen (Twitter video via Brian McTaggart of MLB.com).
  • The Twins’ Saturday agreement with Addison Reed “came out of nowhere” for new teammate and fellow reliever Fernando Rodney, a person close to Rodney told Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press. According to Rodney, the Twins promised him their closer role when they signed him last month to a deal that includes incentives for appearances and games finished. “We’ll see how it plays out,” the person told Berardino in regards to the Twins’ late-game setup. Another source informed Berardino that the Twins still plan to begin the season with Rodney as their primary closer.
  • When the Reed signing becomes official, the Twins could jettison left-handed reliever Gabriel Moya to open up a spot on their 40-man roster, per Berardino. Moya, whom the Twins acquired from the Diamondbacks for catcher John Ryan Murphy last July, is fresh off an incredible Double-A season in which he logged a near-spotless ERA (.77) and posted 13.4 K/9 against 2.2 BB/9 over 58 1/3 innings. Despite that performance, the 23-year-old Moya does not rank among the Twins’ top 30 prospects at either Baseball America or MLB.com. [Twitter update via Berardino: Moya isn’t at risk of losing his 40-man spot in favor of Reed.]

Unresolved 2018 Arbitration Cases

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We’ve covered a whole lot of arbitration deals today, many of them reached before today’s deadline to exchange filing figures. Some other agreements have come together after team and player submitted their numbers. It’s still possible, of course, that these situations will be resolved before an arbitration hearing becomes necessary. (At this point, we seem to lack full clarity on teams’ approaches to negotiations after the filing deadline. And most organizations make exceptions for multi-year deals even if they have a file-and-trial stance.)

Some situations could even be dealt with in short order. As things stand, though, these unresolved arbitration cases could turn into significant hearings. (As always, MLBTR’s 2018 arbitration projections can be found here; you will also want to reference MLBTR’s 2018 arbitration tracker.)

Players Avoiding Arbitration: American League

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The deadline for MLB teams to exchange salary arbitration figures with their arbitration-eligible players is today at 1pm ET. As such, there will be a veritable flood of arb agreements piling up in the next few hours — especially in light of a more universal approach to the “file and trial” method for teams. (That is to say, those teams will no longer negotiate one-year deals after arb figures are exchanged and will instead head to a hearing with those players, barring an agreemenr on a multi-year deal.)

Note that you can keep an eye on all of today’s deals using MLBTR’s 2018 Arbitration Tracker, which can be filtered to show only the results of the team you follow and is also sortable by service time and dollar value of the agreement. All projections that are referenced come from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz’s annual compilation of projected arbitration salarie

American League West

  • The Astros and Evan Gattis agreed to a $6.7MM deal for 2018, per FanRag’s Robert Murray (Twitter link). A free agent next season, Gattis lands within $100K of his $6.6MM projection. The club also has deals (for values unknown) with starters Dallas Keuchel, Lance McCullers Jr., and Brad Peacock, Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle tweets.
  • The Rangers agreed to a $1.05MM deal with infielder Jurickson Profar, tweets Murray. Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star Telegram, meanwhile, tweets that lefty Jake Diekman landed a $2.7125MM deal and righty Keone Kela will earn $1.2MM. Profar had been projected at $1.1MM and is controllable another three seasons. Diekman, a free agent next winter, was projected at $2.8MM. And Kela, still controlled for three more years, matched his $1.2MM projection on the dot.
  • The Athletics and closer Blake Treinen agreed to a $2.15MM deal for next year, tweets Murray. The A’s can control Treinen for another three years. He was projected at $2.3MM. Shortstop Marcus Semien has settled for $3.125MM, Heyman tweets; his $3.2MM projection was nearly spot-on. Oakland has announced that it has avoided arbitration with Liam Hendriks and Josh Phegley as well, but their salaries have yet to be reported.
  • The Angels have a one-year, $7.3MM agreement in place with right-hander Garrett Richards, per Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register (Twitter link). Richards, a free agent next offseason, tops his $7MM projection by a margin of $300K. The Halos have also avoided arb with first baseman C.J. Cron ($2.3MM) and left-hander Tyler Skaggs ($1.875MM), tweets USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. Cron’s total falls a ways shy of his $2.8MM projection, while Skaggs comes in just $25K south of his $1.9MM projection. Both are controllable through the 2020 season. Lastly, Murray tweets that Matt Shoemaker agreed to a $4.125MM deal. He’s controlled through 2020 and projected at $4.4MM. Fletcher also tweets that the club has agreed with righty J.C. Ramirez ($1.9MM salary vs. $2.6MM projection) and lefty Jose Alvarez ($1.05MM salary vs. $1.1MM projection). Finally, righty Cam Bedrosian has agreed at $1.1MM, Flecher tweets, which represents a payday close to his projection of $1.2MM.
  • Left-hander James Paxton will earn $4.9MM with the Mariners in 2018, tweets Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times. Murray tweets that the Mariners and David Phelps agreed to a $5.55MM deal. Paxton, controlled through 2020, projected to earn $5.6MM, while Phelps was pegged at $5.8MM. He’s a free agent next winter. Righty Erasmo Ramirez took a $4.2MM deal, MLB.com’s Greg Johns reports. That’s half a million shy of what the model suggested. Fellow right-hander Nick Vincent also has an agreement, but the terms aren’t yet known.

American League Central

  • New lefty Luis Avilan has agreed to a $2.45MM deal with the White Sox, Chris Kuc of the Chicago Tribune reports via Twitter. The recent trade acquisition came with a projected $2.3MM price tag. Fellow southpaw Carlos Rodon will receive $2.3MM, a bit of a bump over the $2MM he projected to receive. Also, utilityman Leury Garcia gets $1.175MM, which is just $25K short of his projected value.
  • The Royals and righty Nate Karns agreed to a $1.375MM deal for 2018, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet reports (on Twitter). That lands within $25K of his $1.4MM projection for the coming season. Kansas City controls Karns through 2020. Meanwhile, MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan reports (via Twitter) that Kelvin Herrera will earn $7.9375MM in 2018, landing a bit shy of his $8.3MM projection. Herrera is a free agent next winter.
  • The Indians have a $5MM agreement with righty Danny Salazar, MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian tweets. He had projected to earn just $200K more, this falls right in line with expectations. Cleveland also agreed with Lonnie Chisenhall on a $5.5875MM deal, tweets Nightengale. The third baseman-turned-outfielder, who was projected to earn $5.8MM, will be a free agent following the 2018 season.
  • Trevor May has a $650K agreement with the Twins for the 2018 season, according to Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune. May, who missed the entire season due to Tommy John surgery (and did some writing for MLBTR during his rehab process), had been projected at $600K. The Twins also agreed to a $1MM deal with infielder Ehire Adrianza, per La Velle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune. Meanwhile, righty Ryan Pressly has agreed to a $1.6MM deal, tweets Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN. Both deals are identical matches with their projections. Adrianza has three years of team control remaining, while Pressly has two. Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press tweets that outfielder Robbie Grossman settled at $2MM, leaving him $400K shy of his projection. Grossman is controlled for another three seasons.
  • Tigers third baseman/outfielder Nick Castellanos will earn $6.05MM, per Heyman (via Twitter). He had projected at a much heftier $7.6MM in his second-to-last season of arb eligibility. MLB.com’s Jason Beck reports (Twitter links) that the Tigers and right-handed reliever Alex Wilson settled at $1.925MM, while fellow righty Shane Greene will earn $1.95MM. Wilson was projected to earn $2.1MM, while Greene was at $1.7MM. Wilson is controlled through 2019, while Greene is under control through 2020.

American League East

  • The Yankees have knocked out some of their biggest arb cases, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (Twitter links). Shortstop Didi Gregorius receives $8.25MM and righty Sonny Gray checks in at $6.5MM. The former had projected to earn $9.0MM while the algorithm was just $100K high on the latter.Backstop Austin Romine will earn $1.1MM, Heyman also tweets, which is also $100K below the projection. Righty Adam Warren and the Yankees have a $3.315MM deal, per Murray (Twitter link). This is Warren’s final season of eligibility before hitting the open market next winter. He’d been projected at $3.1MM. Meanwhile, fellow right-hander Dellin Betances has agreed to a $5.1MM deal, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). That’s just $100K more than Betances had sought last year, when he took his case to a hearing that he ultimately lost. But it’s quite a bit more than the $4.4MM he projected to receive after a subpar season in which he played at a $3MM salary.
  • The Red Sox have agreed to pay $8.5MM to southpaw Drew Pomeranz, per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe (Twitter link). That’s short of the $9.1MM that had been projected after Pomeranz turned in a productive 2017 season. Boston and Jackie Bradley Jr. settled at $6.1MM, tweets Murray. That’s a bit north of the $5.9MM at which he’d been projected for the upcoming season. Bradley Jr., a Super Two player, has another three seasons of club control remaining. Nightengale tweets that righty Joe Kelly ($3.6MM projection) agreed to a $3.825MM deal. He’ll be a free agent next winter. Lefty Eduardo Rodriguez ($2.375MM salary vs. $2.7MM projection) and righty Brandon Workman ($835K salary vs. $900K projection) are two other Sox hurlers that have agreed to terms, Speier reports (Twitter links). On the position player side, catcher Sandy Leon falls a bit under his projection $1.95MM (via Speier, on Twitter) while utilityman Brock Holt just beats expectations at $2.225MM (per ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick, on Twitter). The team also agreed with shortstop Xander Bogaerts for $7.05MM, Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston tweets, which comes in a bit shy of his $7.6MM projection. Boston also announced agreement with backstop Christian Vazquez, who’ll earn $1.425MM, per MLB.com’s Ian Browne (via Twitter). That’s just under the projection of $1.5MM.
  • The Blue Jays and righty Aaron Sanchez agreed to a $2.7MM deal for 2018, according to Nightengale (Twitter link). That crushes his $1.9MM projection, which was likely suppressed due Sanchez’s lack of innings (just 36) in 2017. He’s under Jays control through 2020. Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith, meanwhile, tweets that second baseman Devon Travis will make $1.45MM next year, falling a bit shy of his $1.7MM forecast. Other Toronto players agreeing to terms include Kevin Pillar ($3.25MM vs. $4.0MM projection) and Dominic Leone ($1.085MM vs. $1.2MM projection), MLB.com’s Gregor Chisholm tweets.
  • The Rays and closer Alex Colome settled at $5.3M, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (on Twitter). He’d been projected at $5.5MM and is controllable for three more years. They also settled at $5.95MM with outfielder/DH Corey Dickerson ($6.4MM projection) and $4.5MM with infielder Brad Miller ($4.4MM projection), per Murray (all Twitter links). Steven Souza, according to Murray will earn $3.55MM, placing him right in line with his $3.6MM projection. Dickerson and Miller are controlled through 2019. Souza is controlled through 2020.

Market Chatter: Marlins, Mets, Cobb, JDM, Astros, Hamilton, Royals

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While the Marlins have reportedly been holding talks regarding catcher J.T. Realmuto and outfielder Christian Yelich, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic says that four rival general managers expressed doubt” that a trade will actually take place involving these young assets. Whether that opinion is based on the reportedly astronomical asking prices or other factors isn’t immediately clear. There’s some suggestion from some of Rosenthal’s sources, though, that the Fish are concerned with perception and won’t make a deal unless it seems the offer was overwhelming. That seems largely unlikely, but the already less-than-rosy returns on the initial months of the new ownership have been marred further by reports from the Miami Herald about the incoming plans. Most recently, Barry Jackson reported that CEO Derek Jeter stands to receive a $5MM salary with multi-million-dollar bonuses if he can deliver profitability to the ownership group (of which he is a part). PR considerations aside, there’s certainly a compelling case to deal Realmuto and Yelich rather than take the risk of holding them. Rosenthal argues the organization ought to simply follow through on the rebuilding steps it has taken already, using this offseason as the time to cash in both of those quality young players.

Here are some more market notes:

  • The Mets are said to be checking in on the market for third basemen, per MLB.com’s Jon Morosi. The report suggests that the New York organization is positioning itself as a landing spot for Mike Moustakas or Todd Frazier if they reduce their current asking prices. Similarly, the club has checked in on backstop Jonathan Lucroy as well as left-handed-hitting first basemen Adam Lind and Logan Morrison. (Those two potential first base options, of course, occupy quite different market segments given the former’s age and the latter’s breakout 2017 season.) All told, it still seems the Mets are broadly canvassing the market for possible upgrades, but looking to do so with relatively limited financial resources still available.
  • Jon Heyman of Fan Rag has a variety of interesting notes in a look at the top remaining free agents and other notes from around the game. Free agent righty Alex Cobb is “willing” to take a four-year deal at a $70MM guarantee, says Heyman. Of course, that’s also a significant amount more than MLBTR, at least, projected he’d earn on the open market. It would appear there’s still some market development left to go between Cobb and his suitors. Of course, there are also a few higher-regarded starters left whose own situations may need to be resolved first. Meanwhile, fellow free agent righty Andrew Cashner is reportedly angling for a three-year pact. While the 31-year-old did manage a 3.40 ERA in 166 2/3 innings in 2017, teams will be wary given that he carried only a meager 4.6 K/9 on the year.
  • Years are also at issue for J.D. Martinez, Heyman explains. Red Sox president of baseball ops Dave Dombrowski is not interested in offering more than five years, but Heyman suggests that agent Scott Boras could yet try to make his case at the ownership level. The “word is there are other five-year offers,” Heyman adds, though it remains hard to imagine which other reportedly interested club would be able to compete financially with the Sox for Martinez.
  • Heyman also checks in on the closer market. The Astros, he notes, remain interested in adding a high-end, late-inning arm. It’s not entirely clear if they are a realistic suitor for Greg Holland, but in theory he’d be an option. Holland is said to have set out in search of five years in free agency. That never really seemed likely, as he’s 32 years of age and had at least a few late-season stumbles in his first campaign back from Tommy John surgery. Of course, Holland is still expected to secure a significant contract, though a three-year arrangement may be likeliest at this point.
  • Though the Reds continue to engage in discussions regarding center fielder Billy Hamilton, ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick notes on Twitter that there’s one major potential roadblock. Club owner Bob Castellini is quite hesitant to part with Hamilton, it seems. While there’s no indication that the switch-hitting speed demon is completely off limits, the stance may make it harder to get a deal done.
  • As the Royals weigh their options at short, it seems the team is targeting some veterans that figure to be available on lower-cost deals. Incumbent Alcides Escobar remains an option, says Heyman, while Kansas City is also said to be favorably disposed toward Ryan Goins.

Dodgers Acquire Scott Alexander In 3-Team Swap With Royals, White Sox

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Three teams have announced a swap that will send lefty Scott Alexander from the Royals to the Dodgers. Infielder Jake Peter will also end up in Los Angeles, by way of the White Sox.

Meanwhile, Kansas City will pick up righty Trevor Oaks and infielder Erick Mejia in the deal. The White Sox will end up with veteran relievers Joakim Soria and Luis Avilan, the former from the Royals and the latter from the Dodgers.  Kansas City is sending $1MM to the White Sox, the Kansas City Star’s Rustin Dodd tweets. Chicago will also receive $2MM from the Dodgers, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter).

For the Dodgers, the move is all about bolstering a relief unit that lost Grant Dayton to injury (and a subsequent waiver claim) and midseason acquisition Tony Watson to free agency. While Tony Cingrani remains on hand, Los Angeles was obviously interested in adding another southpaw to the pen.

[RELATED: Updated Dodgers Depth Chart]

Feb 20, 2017; Surprise, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals pitcher Scott Alexander (54) poses for a photo during spring training photo day at Surprise Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Allan Henry-USA TODAY Sports

Alexander, 28, has accrued just over one year of MLB service, so he’s not even slated to reach arbitration eligibility until 2020. While he’s hardly a household name, he did turn in 69 innings of 2.48 ERA ball in 2017, his first full season at the game’s highest level.

While he recorded just 7.7 K/9 against 3.7 BB/9 on the year, Alexander generated an eye-popping 73.8% groundball rate (and an above-average 12.8% swinging-strike rate, too). Despite relying almost exclusively on his power sinker — he utilized a breaking ball less than ten percent of the time — Alexander generated excellent results against hitters on both sides of the plate. In fact, he spent most of his time dominating righties, who strode to the plate against him 202 times and managed only a .240/.313/.317 batting line.

The move also delivers a young, upper-level infielder to the Dodgers system. The 25-year-old Peter split time at the two highest levels of the minors over the past two years. He thrived in particular upon earning his way back to Triple-A in 2017, slashing .292/.351/.506 over 194 plate appearances.

For the Royals, meanwhile, this is mostly about shedding salary obligations. The club will move all of Soria’s $9MM salary for 2018, while covering the $1MM buyout on a 2019 mutual option. While doing so will entail parting with a quality, affordable young reliever, the team will at least pick up some prospect assets as well.

[RELATED: Updated Royals Depth Chart]

Oaks is the highest-rated young asset in the deal; he could even compete for a rotation spot in camp. Last year, he worked to a 3.64 ERA in 84 Triple-A frames, carrying 7.7 K/9 against 1.9 BB/9 along with a 50.8% groundball rate. (Typically, the sinkerballer has induced even more worm burners than that.) Oaks will head onto the K.C. 40-man roster; he had been added by the Dodgers in November to protect him from the Rule 5 draft.

The switch-hitting Mejia, 23, slashed a useful .289/.357/.413 in his 403 Double-A plate appearances in 2017. He also contributed seven home runs and 25 stolen bases on the year while spending time at short, second, and third. Mejia originally signed with the Mariners organization out of his native Dominican Republic; he landed with the Dodgers by way of a 2016 trade that sent righty Joe Wieland to Seattle.

The involvement of the White Sox is geared mostly toward securing some veteran relief pieces at reasonable prices. Avilan projects to earn $2.3MM in his second-to-last season of arbitration eligibility, but most of that will be covered by the Dodgers. (Of course, that characterization depends upon perspective; L.A. essentially passed through Soria’s contract in the deal, so part of the money could be considered as allocated to his 2018 guarantee.)

[RELATED: Updated White Sox Depth Chart]

Having dealt and acquired a whole host of relievers in 2017, the White Sox will now secure two experienced hurlers to bolster an unproven unit and perhaps also provide the organization with some new trade chips. The right-handed Soria rang up 10.3 K/9 and allowed only a single home run in his 56 innings in 2017, ending the year with a 3.70 ERA. He could now be the favorite to step into the White Sox’ closer role. As for Avilan, a 28-year-old southpaw, he managed a 2.93 ERA in his 46 frames while carrying 10.2 K/9, 4.3 BB/9, and a 53.8% groundball rate.

Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star reported (Twitter links) that Alexander was going to the Dodgers and Soria to the White Sox. Andy McCullough of the Los Angeles Times (Twitter link) and ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick (in a tweet) had other components of the deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Eric Hosmer Has Reportedly Received Multiple 7-Year Offers

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9:43am: Sam Mellinger of the Kansas City Star reports that the Royals have not made an offer worth $147MM over seven years to Hosmer, though they remain interested in re-signing him. Mellinger’s report doesn’t specifically refute the length of the offer or that one has been made. Nightengale did stress in yesterday’s report that the length of the offer was confirmed by at least one “high-ranking” member of the Royals, though it’s certainly possible that the overall guarantee has been overstated.

Jan. 4, 9:20am: Boras dismissed Nightengale’s numbers as “inaccurate” when speaking to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription required and highly recommended), though he offered no further detail beyond that point. Rosenthal agrees with Nightengale’s assessment that Hosmer is seeking a larger contract both in length and total guarantee, noting that Hosmer is younger than the bulk of free agents that have received contracts of seven or more years in length.

Jan. 3, 1:25pm: San Diego’s offer is at seven years but has not reached $140MM, a source tells Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune (via Twitter).

8:25am: The market for Eric Hosmer appears to be heating up, according to a report from Bob Nightengale of USA Today. He cites sources “close to Hosmer” that say the first baseman has received nine-figure offers from both the Padres and the Royals.

San Diego, per the report, has dangled a seven-year deal at a healthy $140MM price tag — about $20MM more than had previously been suggested. But the incumbent Kansas City club is said to have topped that bid with a contract that would include a $147MM guarantee. Notably, Nightengale says he was able to confirm the length of the proposed contract terms with both organizations.

Entering the offseason, MLBTR predicted that Hosmer would only be able to secure a six-year guarantee at a $132MM price tag. That said, we noted that the 28-year-old was seeking more and could drive bidding northward if he found a few organizations that placed a particularly high value on his services.

It seems that’s just what has happened, as Hosmer is now evidently sitting on two appealing offers from two small-market teams that aren’t even expected to contend in 2018. The Royals, of course, are quite familiar with the first baseman and obviously feel his value outstrips the assessment of measures such as wins above replacement. And it seems that’s an opinion shared by the Pads, who must see Hosmer as a potential building block for a young roster that’s expected to bloom in the coming seasons.

For Kansas City, bringing back the team’s core star would not necessarily mean pushing the pedal down for 2018. Rather, the club has indicated throughout the winter that it’ll be drawing back payroll and looking to reload. But such a move would surely impact the team’s overall planning for the coming seasons and might impact its willingness to trade longer-term assets such as Danny Duffy.

Meanwhile, the Padres — whose interest has long been known — would clearly need to bump Wil Myers back into the outfield to make room for Hosmer. Making this deal might also mean dealing away some other assets to make the roster work, though again a signing wouldn’t necessarily be accompanied by other win-now moves. San Diego did recently pick up a short-term veteran at shortstop in Freddy Galvis, though that move is hardly a committing one and the team has mostly endeavored to fill its gaps with low-cost signings. It’s doubtful the organization would drastically alter its timeline in other areas, though certainly adding such a significant salary to the payroll would have a major impact on the options moving forward.

Notably, Hosmer is not just assessing which of these two contracts to take at this point. Rather, Nightengale says that Hosmer and his agent, Scott Boras, are “seeking at least an eight-year or nine-year deal.” Whether or not there’s further room for those offers to grow is not immediately clear, and it’s not entirely evident whether any other teams will enter the bidding in earnest. (The Cardinals have recently been suggested as having ongoing interest, though.) Regardless, it seems that Hosmer is in position to secure a massive contract that meets or exceeds most expectations.

Taking Inventory: Kansas City Royals

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After an extended run at or near the top of the American League Central, the Royals have watched much of their vaunted core hit the open market. What remains in Kansas City, beyond the everlasting title of 2015 World Series champions, is a collection of fairly expensive veterans and a larger group of unproven young assets. The Royals appear destined for a rebuild, joining their AL Central brethren in Detroit and on the south side of Chicago in that regard.

While there aren’t all that many top-shelf trade chips, GM Dayton Moore and his staff do have some commodities that they can market to other clubs as an alternative to the stagnant free-agent market.

[Related: Kansas City Royals depth chart and Royals payroll outlook]

One-Year Rentals

Kelvin Herrera | Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Kelvin Herrera, RHRP (projected arbitration salary of $8.3MM): Herrera is coming off the worst season of his career, having struggled to a 4.25 ERA as he watched his K/9 (8.5), BB/9 (3.0) and HR/9 (1.37) all trend in the wrong direction. That said, Herrera’s average fastball checked in at 97.5 mph, tying him for 10th among all qualified relievers in the game. His 11.5 percent swinging-strike rate and 34 percent chase rate on pitches out of the zone were both down from recent seasons but comfortably above the league average. He’s still just 28 years old, as well.

Joakim Soria, RHRP ($10MM through 2018, including buyout of a 2019 mutual option): Unlike Herrera, Soria saw virtually all of his rate stats improve in 2017. While his 3.70 ERA looks fairly pedestrian, his 2.23 FIP and 3.16 SIERA are more indicative of the success he enjoyed as his K/9 (10.3), BB/9 (3.2), HR/9 (0.16), ground-ball rate (54.8 percent) and swinging-strike rate (13.2 percent) all looked better than they did in a lackluster 2016 season. Soria will turn 34 in May, and he’s not cheap at $10MM, but he can help the back of a contender’s bullpen.

Jason Hammel, SP ($11MM through 2018, including buyout of a 2019 mutual option): Hammel is 35 years old and registered an ERA north of 5.00 last year, but his 4.37 FIP, 7.2 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 are all at least somewhat encouraging. He’s made at least 29 starts in each of the past four seasons, so a team looking for durable innings in the fifth slot of its rotation could do worse than lining up a deal for Hammel. It shouldn’t require much more than simply picking up the tab on his $11MM remaining salary.

Brandon Moss, 1B/OF/DH ($8.25MM through 2018, including buyout of a 2019 mutual option): Moss, 34, saw his production crater in 2017. The slugger hit just .207/.279/.428 and struck out in nearly a third of his plate appearances, though he did connect on 22 homers and walk at a solid 9.2 percent clip. Still, his struggles in ’17 make him a difficult piece to move right now — especially in a market that is once again rife with first basemen who come with longstanding platoon issues. If he rebounds in the first half, Kansas City shouldn’t have much trouble dealing him to a contender in need of a bench bat come July.

Two Years of Control

Brandon Maurer, RHRP (projected arbitration salary of $3.8MM): Maurer, 27, posted a sky-high 6.52 ERA last year, continuing a trend of delivering questionable bottom-line numbers despite more promising underlying metrics. Maurer averaged 96.6 mph on his heater and racked up a strikeout per inning with solid control. His 1.21 HR/9 mark was a bit high but not extraordinarily so — especially when considering the leaguewide uptick in long balls. But, Maurer stranded just 61.1 percent of the baserunners he allowed, and his career 64.9 percent mark in that category is demonstrably worse than the league average.

Longer-Term Assets

Danny Duffy, SP ($60MM through 2021): One of Kansas City’s most marketable assets, Duffy would be an upgrade for any rotation in the league. The 29-year-old has never crossed the 180-inning threshold in the Majors due to previous injuries and a stint in the K.C. bullpen, but he’s been very good since moving to the rotation on a full-time basis.

Danny Duffy | Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

Over a span of 50 starts dating back to May 15, 2016, Duffy has worked to a 3.68 ERA with 8.7 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 1.14 HR/9 and a 37.8 percent ground-ball rate. He’s signed affordably for another four years, and his contract only runs through his age-32 campaign, so interested parties needn’t worry about signing up for too many decline years. He’s not a Jose Quintana or Chris Archer style bargain, but Duffy should command a fairly substantial return in a trade.

Salvador Perez, C ($43.5MM through 2021): The notion of trading Perez likely causes most Kansas City fans to recoil, as the beloved backstop has emerged as one of the faces of the franchise. Few teams are actively looking for a new starting catcher, though Perez would be the type of player that clubs would make other moves to accommodate. That said, the Royals probably relish the notion of keeping Perez on hand to work with a wave of inexperienced young arms, and a trade doesn’t seem especially likely even if they do take off on a large-scale rebuild.

Whit Merrifield, 2B (pre-arbitration, controlled through 2022): Merrifield has enough club control remaining that there’s no urgency to move him, as he could very well be a part of the next contending Royals roster. The late bloomer broke out with a .288/.324/.460 slash in 2017 and led the AL with 34 stolen bases. He’ll turn 29 this month, though, so the Royals could be wary that he’ll be entering a decline once they’re closer to contending again. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal has reported that the Royals are willing to listen to offers on Merrifield.

Scott Alexander, LHRP (pre-arbitration, controlled through 2022): Rosenthal also noted that Alexander could potentially be had even though he, too, has five years of club control remaining. Alexander, 28, turned in an excellent 2.48 ERA in 69 innings last season, averaging 7.7 K/9, 3.7 BB/9 and 0.39 HR/9 along the way. Lefties hit .240/.313/.317 against him, while righties mustered just a .250/.333/.347 line.

Ryan Buchter, LHRP (pre-arbitration, controlled through 2021): Buchter’s strikeout rate plummeted following a trade from the Royals to the Padres, as he began to throw fewer four-seamers and curveballs while substantially increasing his use of a cut fastball. The 30-year-old Buchter averaged better than 11 strikeouts per nine innings in a season and a half with the Padres, albeit with shaky control and extreme fly-ball tendencies. He’s been terrific against both lefties (.160/.255/.306) and righties (.179/.284/.339) to this point in his MLB career.

Jorge Soler, OF/DH ($12MM through 2020, may opt into arbitration once eligible): Acquired from the Cubs last offseason, Soler didn’t seize the limited opportunity he has in Kansas City last year. In 110 plate appearances, he batted just .144/.245/.258 with a pair of homers. However, Soler raked at a .267/.388/.564 clip in the minors, leaving some room for optimism that the former top prospect can still realize some of his potential at the big league level. There’s little reason for the Royals to sell low on him, given his affordable nature and relative youth (26 in February).

Salary Dump Candidates

Ian Kennedy ($49MM through 2020), Alex Gordon ($44MM through 2019, including buyout of 2020 mutual option)

Moving either Kennedy or Gordon would be a tall order and would almost certainly require the Royals to take on a similarly undesirable contract in exchange. Kennedy remains a durable source of innings — he’s made at least 30 starts in each of the past eight seasons — but his penchant for giving up home runs expanded to new heights in 2017 (1.99 HR/9, 5.38 ERA). Finding a taker for Gordon’s contract would be difficult enough in and of itself, but the Royals would also be wrestling with the notion of dumping the contract of a player that has long served as the face of the franchise. And, as a player with 10-and-5 rights (10 years of MLB service, the past five with the same team), he has full no-trade protection.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Quick Hits: Kimbrel, Royals, Free Agents

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Jayson Stark’s “Strange But True Facts” column is an annual tradition for baseball fans, and Stark is here with the 2017 edition of unusual statistical and factual oddities from the past season.  Highlights include Matt Chapman’s odd do-over on his first career MLB hit, Travis d’Arnaud’s 22-position game on August 16, and the All-Garcia starting outfield deployed by the White Sox on April 14.

Some more from around baseball…

  • Could Craig Kimbrel earn a $100MM free agent contract next offseason?  WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford thinks it could happen, especially after Wade Davis’ three-year, $52MM deal with the Rockies established a new average annual value standard for a closer.  Kimbrel turns 30 in May and is coming off one of his greatest seasons — a 1.43 ERA, 16.4 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 over 69 innings out of the Red Sox bullpen.  Aroldis Chapman’s five-year, $86MM deal with the Yankees from last winter is the largest contract ever given to a relief pitcher, though Chapman signed that deal entering his age-29 season, whereas Kimbrel turns 30 in May.  Kimbrel still stands a decent shot at topping Chapman’s mark, though cracking the $100MM threshold seems like a tall order.
  • The Royals went into the offseason hoping to re-sign maybe one of Eric Hosmer (their top choice), Lorenzo Cain, and Mike Moustakas, though the Kansas City Star’s Rustin Dodd wonders if the team could re-assess its plans given the unexpectedly slow free agent market.  All three players are still available as the calendar turns to January, and in the cases of Hosmer and Moustakas, they seem to be running short on viable landing spots.  Re-signing any of those free agents, however, would cost the Royals compensation draft picks, which are valuable assets for a team that is looking at a rebuild.  Dodd notes that K.C. was able to re-sign Alex Gordon when his free agent market proved to be quieter than expected, though given how Gordon has struggled over the last two years, the Royals probably aren’t thrilled with that comp.
  • One of the reasons behind the lack of free agent action could be that teams are simply more cautious about the risk of spending big on a veteran player, Joel Sherman of the New York Post opines.  Of the 14 current players on free agent deals with a $20MM average annual value and worth more than $100MM in total, only Max Scherzer and Jon Lester seem like clear wins for their teams, while the other 12 players range from questionable investments to outright busts.  Sherman proposes that players should be allowed to become free agents after just four years of service time, arguing that the current free agent setup is “a flawed system” that doesn’t properly compensate players through their prime years.
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