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Pitching Market Chatter: Cole, Herrera, Soria, Cishek, Rondon

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With lots of information flying around the Winter Meetings, let’s check in on a few interesting notes on the pitching market:

  • The Yankees have shown interest in Pirates ace Gerrit Cole, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag tweets, but have been left to believe that Cole won’t be moved. Pittsburgh’s intentions for the winter have never really been clear, with a few notable veterans nearing free agency but a core in place that might still contend in the near term. Presumably, the Bucs are still weighing their options. If a Cole deal is considered, it’s not entirely certain whether the team would prioritize long-term prospect value or prefer instead to bring back controllable assets already playing at the MLB level. While the 27-year-old was less than dominant in 2017, he was able to top two hundred frames and averaged a typical 8.7 K/9 with 2.4 BB/9. The asking price, in other words, will likely still be lofty for a pitcher with a front-line reputation. If the Yankees are serious about pursuit, they’d surely have some interesting pieces to dangle.
  • The Royals are willing to consider trade scenarios involving closer Kelvin Herrera, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports. Righty Joakim Soria is also available via trade, per a report from ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick (via Twitter). That doesn’t rate as much of a surprise given the team’s relatively hefty payroll and questionable chances of contention. Indeed, recent indications are that some sort of rebuilding effort could be in the works. Herrera is coming off of a middling campaign, but also has a history of late-inning success and is projected to earn a relatively palatable $8.3MM in his final season of arb eligibility. Soria, 33, only carried a 3.70 ERA in his 56 frames in 2017, but did post a healthy 10.3 K/9 against 3.2 BB/9. He’s slated to earn $9MM in 2018 and is also promised a $1MM buyout on a 2019 mutual option.
  • Despite some cautionary comments from GM Sandy Alderson yesterday, the Mets are giving indications that they will land at least one reliever over the Winter Meetings, Sherman reports on Twitter. But it’s more likely the team will secure a shorter-term asset than one of the premium setup men they’ve been connected to in the past, he adds. Righty Steve Cishek is one pitcher that has drawn New York’s attention, per Marc Carig of Newsday (via Twitter). The veteran sidearmer finished 2017 with a strong run for the Rays, posting a 1.09 ERA with 9.5 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 in his final 24 2/3 innings after coming over from the Mariners over the summer.
  • As the Nationals look into possible bullpen additions, the club could consider free agent Hector Rondon, Jorge Castillo of the Washington Post reports on Twitter. Washington was among the teams that spoke with the Cubs about Rondon before he was non-tendered. The Nats and others obviously were not willing to risk an arbitration hearing with a player who projected at $6.2MM, but presumably there’ll be fairly wide interest at a lower price tag. Though he faded a bit in 2017, Rondon still carried 10.8 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 while maintaining his typically robust fastball velocity and also showing career highs in swinging-strike (11.9%) and groundball (48.3%) rates.

Latest On Corner Infield Market

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There are quite a few moving pieces on the market for corner infielders, so it’s conceivable that things could go in any number of different directions. At this point, it’s not even clear when or where the first dominoes will fall. Here’s the latest:

  • Fresh off of a non-tender by the Braves, first baseman Matt Adams has drawn interest from a few organizations, according to Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com (via Twitter). Specifically, the Indians, Royals, and Nationals have all reached out to Adams’s representatives. While Cleveland and Kansas City could offer fairly significant roles to the left-handed hitter — who really is best utilized in a platoon capacity — the Nats unsurprisingly would consider him as a frequently used bench piece who might take some of the burden from Ryan Zimmerman. Atlanta was not able to find a taker for Adams before the tender deadline; he had projected to earn $4.6MM via arbitration, so it’d be surprising if he ended up receiving more than that on the open market. For the Indians, it seems, adding a player such as Adams would represent something of a “fallback,” as Crasnick terms it, if the team is unable to strike a new deal with Carlos Santana. MLBTR’s Kyle Downing just analyzed Santana’s free agent case and we have also rounded up the latest market chatter on one of the market’s top bats.
  • Having missed out on Giancarlo Stanton, the Cardinals are now scanning the rest of the market for offensive upgrades. Jon Heyman of Fan Rag looks at the team’s possible options, including free agents Eric Hosmer and J.D. Martinez. He notes that several upper-echelon third basemen might hold appeal on the trade market — which will come as little surprise to those that have followed the Cards’ trade rumblings for the last several months. Of course, it’s still unclear whether the Blue Jays (Josh Donaldson), Rays (Evan Longoria), or Orioles (Manny Machado) will make their stars available.
  • Joel Sherman of the New York Post tackles that subject, discussing the relative likelihood that any of those three will be shopped. And Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times addresses things from the Rays’ perspective, reporting that Longoria has not been given any indication from the organization about their plans. While he says he hopes to remain in Tampa Bay, he also acknowledges he could be “somewhere in limbo.” If a trade comes to pass, says Longoria, “I suppose my family and I will adjust.”
  • The top free agent third baseman, of course, is Mike Moustakas. His market is still taking shape, but the Angels have (as expected) engaged with his camp to some degree, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register reports (Twitter links). That said, there’s no indication of momentum. From an outside perspective, it also seems less likely that the Halos would line up on Moustakas after landing Shohei Ohtani. Even less likely is Logan Morrison, though Fletcher adds that he’s also still on the radar.
  • Hosmer and Martinez are conceivably also targets for the Red Sox, as are Santana and others. As Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe writes, the organization has engaged agent Scott Boras on both players; perhaps unsurprisingly, he also suggests that Boras is pitching Boston on signing the pair in a bold move to revamp its lineup. Interestingly, Cafardo also says that Hosmer’s former club, the Royals, once reached an internal assessment that Hosmer could swat forty long balls annually at Fenway. Of course, the notoriously heavy groundball hitter has never launched more than 25 in a given season (that’s a mark he reached in each of the last two campaigns).

Quick Hits: Sports Science, Iglesias, Moylan, Rangers

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Though baseball hasn’t publicly embraced sports science the way it has analytics, the Giants are looking towards that very field as a way to gain an advantage. A fascinating article by Ian MacMahan of The Athletic (subscription required and recommended) provides some insight into the goals of Geoff Head, San Francisco’s newly-promoted assistant director of player development. “Everybody in baseball is tired by August,” Head tells MacMahan. “But if we are a little less fatigued than our opponent, it gives us an advantage.” The field of sports science focuses heavily on factors such as hydration, nutrition, workload and sleep; experts attempt to put together a formula that will keep players performing at their optimal levels as often as possible. According to Dr. Glenn Fleisig, the main difference between sports science and analytics is that sports science focuses on the “physical and medical aspects of a player,” as opposed to gameplay-based statistics. Less than half of all MLB teams currently have a dedicated sports scientist on their staff, and heavier use of sports science data could lead to big improvements by baseball players. As MacMahan puts it, “no one hits a home run sitting in the dugout nursing lead-filled legs and a tight back.”

  • Evan Woodbery of mlive.com provides some insight into the questions the Tigers face as the winter meetings commence. Most notably, Woodbery reports that there hasn’t been much buzz surrounding shortstop Jose Iglesias, who will become a free agent after the 2018 season. With no open spots on the 40-man roster, Iglesias is one player Detroit could consider moving in order to take advantage of having the first pick in baseball’s Rule 5 Draft this Thursday (As Woodbery points out, Ian Kinsler could also be on the move before then). Though Iglesias hit just .255/.288/.369 across 489 plate appearances last year, his excellent defense boosted his fWAR to 1.6. Because he’s projected to earn just $5.6MM in his final year of arbitration, there would seem to be some surplus value in his contract.
  • Reliever Peter Moylan is generating some interest, specifically from the Royals and Braves (hat tip to Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston). As Drellich notes, Moylan held opposing right-handed hitters to a .161/.244/.236 batting line in 2017 (and may have also provided the Royals with some intangible value thanks to his espresso skills). The 38-year-old Moylan has typically been excellent against righties over the course of his 11-year major league career; he’s posted a 2.22 ERA against them in 280 innings with the Braves, Dodgers and Royals.
  • Even after losing out on Shohei Ohtani, the Rangers may still elect to use a non-traditional rotation, Evan Grant of SportsDay writes. Texas has reportedly kept contact with Yu Darvish, who has pitched in a six-man rotation in Japan and prefers such a setup; that might be one item which could help entice him to return to Arlington. Grant mentions Cole Hamels, who is generally a stickler for routine, as someone who could present a roadblock to such a strategy. However, based on Hamels’ quotes in the piece, he’d be willing to consider it if the modification helped bring about a postseason berth. “I’d love to get to the postseason again and win a World Series. That’s what I want to do here,” said Hamels. “If we can be stronger and healthier, not as worn down, you have the advantage.”

AL Notes: Hosmer, Royals, Ohtani, Rangers

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The Royals are interested in re-signing first baseman Eric Hosmer, but their pursuit of the longtime franchise cornerstone isn’t going particularly well, Jon Heyman of FanRag suggests (Twitter link). Kansas City’s belief is that “there are much bigger deals elsewhere” for Hosmer, according to Heyman, though he points out that the club was similarly pessimistic before it managed to re-up free agent outfielder Alex Gordon two offseasons ago. Gordon landed a four-year, $72MM pact, which stands as the largest deal in Royals history. Hosmer figures to obliterate that total, with MLBTR projecting a six-year, $132MM payday.

More from the American League:

  • The Angels introduced newly signed Japanese ace/slugger Shohei Ohtani during a Saturday press conference, at which general manager Billy Eppler told reporters that the team “definitely” expects him to continue as a two-way player in the majors (Twitter links via Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register). Ohtani won’t play the outfield, however, which comes as no surprise considering the Angels already have Mike Trout, Justin Upton and Kole Calhoun occupying spots in the grass. As for the Angels’ pitching staff, Eppler noted that the club is “very open minded” to utilizing a six-man rotation. That would seem to benefit not only Ohtani, who pitched once a week in Japan, but the rest of an Angels staff that dealt with a spate of injuries in 2017.
  • Speaking of six-man rotations, the Rangers could be prime candidates to go that route in 2018 if they manage to bring back Yu Darvish, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News observes. The Rangers didn’t enter the offseason planning to spend big money on a single player, but Grant wonders if they’ll pivot from that strategy after failing to reel in Ohtani. As such, he proposes offering a four-year, $80MM guarantee to Darvish and including incentives and a fifth-year vesting option. While that seems light for the longtime Ranger and recent Dodger, Grant posits that both Darvish’s affinity for Texas and the prospect of going with a six-man rotation – something the hurler advocates – could help sway him toward a reunion.
  • In another piece, Grant runs down a Winter Meetings to-do list for the Rangers, arguing that they should look to spend on a top-tier free agent starter (Darvish would qualify), improve their bullpen, attempt to trade Shin-Soo Choo and retain their key prospects. Regarding the bullpen, the Rangers are more inclined to target multiple affordable relievers than sign one of Wade Davis or Greg Holland, per Grant.

Mariners Claim Mike Morin

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The Mariners have claimed Mike Morin off waivers from the Royals, per a club announcement. He figures to represent yet another depth option for the Seattle staff, so long as he remains in the organization through to Spring Training.

Morin, a 26-year-old righty, went from the Angels to the Royals by way of the waiver wire late in the 2017 campaign. All told, he stumbled to a 7.20 ERA in twenty MLB innings, though there were a few signals of short-sample misfortune and his 16:5 K/BB ratio was in his usual range.

Other signals were mixed. Morin averaged a career-low 90.8 mph with his fastball, a few ticks below the levels he had sustained previously, but did maintain an appealing 12.9% swinging-strike rate that was right at his career average. In 39 1/3 Triple-A frames, he carried a 3.20 ERA but only recorded 5.7 K/9.

All told, it’s not altogether clear what Seattle can expect, but Morin is still plenty young and has had runs of success at the game’s highest level. In his debut season of 2014, especially, Morin carried a 2.90 ERA over 59 innings. He also has a clear history with Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto, who held that post with the Angels when Morin was drafted and developed.

Royals Sign Scott Barlow To MLB Deal

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The Royals announced today that they have signed righty Scott Barlow to a MLB contract. It’s a split deal that would pay Barlow $650K in the majors and $225K in the minors, MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan tweets.

Barlow, who’ll soon turn 25, has yet to reach the majors. He became a minor-league free agent at the end of the season, wrapping up a six-year run in the Dodgers organization that began when he was taken in the sixth round of the 2011 draft.

It seems the Royals are optimistic that Barlow can contribute at the game’s highest level. He has functioned mostly as a starter in the minors, with mixed results as he has climbed the latter. In 107 1/3 Double-A frames in 2017, Barlow ran up a 2.10 ERA with 10.4 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9. But he was not nearly as good in his 32 1/3 Triple-A innings, coughing up 7.24 earned per nine with 10.0 K/9 and an ugly 6.4 BB/9.

Royals Agree To Deals With Two Former Braves Prospects

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Dec. 6: The Royals have also agreed to a deal with former Braves prospect Juan Carlos Negret, Sanchez reports (via Twitter). The Cuban-born 18-year-old hit .264/.401/.391 with a pair of homers and 23 steals (in 32 attempts) across 217 plate appearances and 50 games in the Dominican Summer League this past season.

Dec. 5: The Royals have agreed to sign right-hander Yefri Del Rosario for a $650K signing bonus, reports Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com (via Twitter). The 18-year-old Rosario had originally signed for a $1MM bonus with Atlanta but was one of the dozen prospects whom commissioner Rob Manfred declared a free agent following the league’s investigation into the Braves’ misdealings on the international prospect front.

Del Rosario made his professional debut in 2017 when he tossed a combined 37 1/3 innings between the Braves’ Rookie-level affiliates in the Dominican Summer League and the Gulf Coast League. In that time, he posted a 3.62 ERA with a 36-to-14 K/BB ratio. Prior to DelRosario’s signing, Baseball America’s Ben Badler noted that he had already run his fastball up to 94 mph and featured a breaking pitch that at times looked like a plus offering while also noting that there were some concerns that Del Rosario’s mechanics and smaller stature would eventually lead to a future as a reliever. More recently, ESPN’s Keith Law called Del Rosario the “most intriguing” pitcher the Braves lost in the scandal, praising his athleticism and arm speed.

The Royals are still in the “penalty box” for vastly exceeding their international pool in the 2015-16 signing period, meaning they’re barred from signing any player on the 2017-18 class for more than $300K. However, as pertains to the Braves prospects that were recently dubbed free agents by Manfred, teams can reportedly dip into next year’s signing pool in order to ink them. That, it seems, is the route the Royals are taking here. Notably, today marks the first day that those former Atlanta prospects can officially sign with new organizations. They’re eligible to sign for a new bonus with any team other than the Braves between now and Jan. 15, after which they’ll still be eligible to sign but ineligible to receive an additional bonus.

Free Agent Profile: Mike Moustakas

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The Moose is loose on the free agent market, as Mike Moustakas looks to convert his big power year into a pricey multi-year contract.

Strengths/Pros

After playing in only 27 games in 2016 due to a torn right ACL, Moustakas rebounded to earn AL Comeback Player Of The Year honors after batting .272/.314/.521 with 38 homers over 598 plate appearances.  He outhomered every full-time third baseman in baseball last season, and only seven players overall hit more than Moustakas’ 38 dingers.  Between this performance, his breakout 2015 campaign, and even his abbreviated 2016 numbers, Moustakas has been a solidly above-average hitter over his last 1325 PA, creating 18% more (hypothetical) runs than the average hitter since the start of the 2015 season.

Mike MoustakasMoustakas’ 38 homers set a new Royals single-season record, breaking the surprisingly long-lasting old mark of 36 set by Steve Balboni back in 1985.  Needless to say, Kauffman Stadium isn’t friendly to home run hitters, making Moustakas’ feat all the more impressive.  Since much of his damage came away from Kansas City last year (.284/.326/.582 with 24 homers in 310 away-game plate appearances), it could be argued that Moustakas would be even more dangerous playing his home games in a less-spacious ballpark.

Prior to 2017, Moustakas had been a solid defender at third base, with the UZR/150 metric providing more consistently positive reviews about his glovework than the Defensive Runs Saved metric.

Moustakas just turned 29 in September, making him younger than most of the other top free agent batters.  Going by the last few seasons, he’s reaching the open market right in the midst of his hitting prime, making him a safer bet for a long-term deal than older players who may have more overt question marks about possible decline.

Weaknesses/Cons

Moustakas’ 55.6% swing rate was topped by only six qualified hitters last season, and Moustakas’ free-swinging ways resulted in both a career-low 5.7% walk rate and his highest strikeout rate (15.7%) since 2013.  To be fair, that strikeout rate is actually more than respectable given how often Moustakas was swinging away, though it doesn’t seem sustainable given his only-okay career contact rates.  While Moustakas was a good hitter in both 2015 and 2017, these are also his only two full seasons of above-average production, so any weak points (like an inflated swing rate) tend to stand out as red flags.

With just a .305 career OBP and a track record as a subpar baserunner, Moustakas is reliant on his power to prop up his offensive value.  That’s not a bad skill to have in the recent era of big homer totals and a seemingly livelier baseball, though it does make Moustakas potentially susceptible to a drop in production should MLB explore a re-design of the balls.

As mentioned earlier, Moustakas had been a good defender for much of his career, though he was below-average in both DRS (minus-8) and UZR/150 (-3.6) in 2017.  This is certainly a worry for teams wondering if Moustakas might not be the same after his ACL surgery, though it also isn’t uncommon for players to simply need some time to shake off the rust in the wake of such injuries.  It’s worth noting that the Royals used Moustakas as a designated hitter in 17 games last season in an effort to keep him fresh.

Because Moustakas rejected the Royals’ qualifying offer, a new team would have to give up at least one draft pick and potentially some international bonus pool money in order to sign the third baseman.  (You can find a full overview of the new QO signing rules here.)

Personal

Moustakas was born in Los Angeles and played his high school ball at local Chatsworth HS before the Royals selected him with the second overall pick of the 2007 draft.  A highly-regarded prospect throughout his minor league career, Moustakas was a key member of the homegrown core of talent that came up together though Kansas City’s farm system and helped deliver the Royals a World Series title in 2015.

After over a decade with the franchise, Moustakas has naturally created strong bonds with the organization and within the Kansas City community, and is well-regarded as a teammate and clubhouse leader.  Moustakas and wife Stephanie married in 2014 and they welcomed their first daughter in August 2016.

Market

MLBTR’s Connor Byrne recently made the argument that Todd Frazier, not Moustakas, may be the best third baseman on the market this winter, though since Moustakas is over two and a half years younger, he stands out as the more logical choice for a team looking for a long-term answer at the hot corner.

Moustakas’ relative youth might also make him attractive to a team that may not be planning to contend in 2018, but wants to lock down third base in preparation for a run in 2019 and beyond.  Teams like the Phillies or Braves could fit this description if they respectively decide against going with Maikel Franco or waiting for prospect Austin Riley, though both teams seem like longshot candidates for Moustakas’ services.  You can similarly squint and see how Moustakas could fit with the Red Sox, Indians, or Mets, though the latter two teams probably won’t have the payroll room and Boston likely wants to give Rafael Devers a longer look at third base before considering him as a first baseman.

The Giants and Cardinals are both currently tied up pursuing Giancarlo Stanton, though both teams could certainly use Moustakas’ power, with San Francisco in particular having a glaring hole at third base.  A surprise team like the Orioles (if Manny Machado is moved to shortstop) or Twins (if Miguel Sano can’t handle regular third base duties after leg surgery) could also emerge.  The Angels are currently focused on second basemen and plan to use Luis Valbuena in a third base platoon, so a return to his hometown doesn’t seem likely for Moustakas — unless the Halos miss out on Shohei Ohtani and thus change their DH/first base plans.

A return to Kansas City also can’t be entirely ruled out, as the Royals have some interest in re-signing at least one of Moustakas or Eric Hosmer.  Conversely, the Royals also seem on the brink of a rebuild, so they could be better served in letting that duo (and Lorenzo Cain) leave in free agency and then collecting the draft picks due to them since Moustakas, Hosmer, and Cain all rejected qualifying offers.

Expected Contract

MLBTR ranked Moustakas sixth on our list of the offseason’s Top 50 Free Agents, with a predicted contract of five years and $85MM.  That still seems like a reasonable prediction, even if the Stanton/Ohtani chases have been holding up the market for big-ticket free agents and an increased number of front offices are willing to play the waiting game.  Moustakas is represented by Scott Boras, who is no stranger himself to keeping his clients available until an acceptably large contract can be found.  Moustakas looks to be one of the prime beneficiaries once the Stanton and Ohtani markets are resolved, particularly given this winter’s thin third base market.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Royals To Sign Wily Peralta

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The Royals became the latest team to strike on the pitching market, adding righty Wily Peralta on a one-year deal, as Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star first reported (Twitter links). Peralta will receive a $1.525MM guarantee, $1.5MM of which will go to his 2018 salary. The remaining $25K is allocated to a buyout for a $3MM option for 2019. It’s also possible for Peralta to tack on another $1.25MM per season in performance incentives.

Peralta was outrighted in early August by the Brewers and then elected free agency at season’s end. That move came on the heels of a miserable 57 1/3-inning run in 2017, over which Peralta surrendered ten home runs and fifty earned runs. His departure brought a close to his six-year MLB run in Milwaukee, over which time he compiled a 4.48 ERA with 6.5 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 with a 51.2% groundball rate.

The 28-year-old remains a somewhat intriguing bounceback option, though, for a variety of reasons. It has been some time since he was an effective starter, but he did spin 198 2/3 frames of 3.53 ERA ball back in 2014. And Peralta still brings the heat: in 2017, he averaged 96.5 mph with his four-seamer, matching a personal high. An optimist would surely point to Peralta’s meager 59.8% strand rate and lofty .362 BABIP in his most recent season.

Peralta figures to represent a swingman option for K.C., which GM Dayton Moore acknowledged in commenting on the signing to MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan (via Twitter). Moore indicates that he likes the idea of seeing how his power arsenal fares in the bullpen, while also noting that the club “will look at him as possible rotation depth as well.”

While the team’s plans aren’t yet fully clear, indications are that the Royals are heading for a rebuilding period. If that’s the case, it’s not hard to imagine Peralta functioning as a low-cost rotation piece — particularly if the club explores trades for high-priced starters Danny Duffy, Ian Kennedy, and Jason Hammel. The latter two, certainly, could only be moved if Kansas City is willing to hang onto some of their remaining obligations.

If, on the other hand, the Royals find themselves in position to bring back free agents Eric Hosmer and/or Mike Moustakas, and decide to hang on to closer Kelvin Herrera, perhaps Peralta could earn his way into the late-inning mix as a setup arm. This move really does not commit the organization in a particular direction, so there’s still quite a bit left to learn about how the Royals’ 2018 roster will shake out.

Royals Likely Headed For Rebuild

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After a half-decade at or near the top of the AL Central, two appearances in the World Series and one championship, the Royals now look to be going in the opposite direction. As Eric Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain and Mike Moustakas all hit the free-agent market, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes (subscription required/recommended) that the Royals “expect to step back for perhaps three seasons” and embark on a rebuilding effort. Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star also penned an excellent column on the Royals’ trajectory over the weekend, reporting that Kansas City appears headed for a “substantial rebuild across the next two or three seasons.”

Royals GM Dayton Moore suggests to Dodd that the Royals have to at least be open-minded to virtually any trade scenario: “If somebody blows your doors off on something, you always have to look at it.” 

That, according to Rosenthal, could even include controllable pieces like Whit Merrifield, who broke out with a .288/.324/.460 slash and an AL-leading 34 stolen bases last season. Rosenthal also notes that Kansas City would listen to offers on left-handed reliever Scott Alexander, who notched a 2.48 ERA with 7.7 K/9, 3.7 BB/9 and a ridiculous 73.8 percent ground-ball rate in 69 innings last year. Both players are controlled through the 2022 season and are still two years removed from arbitration eligibility.

Beyond that pairing, the Royals have a few more obvious trade candidates. Kelvin Herrera and Joakim Soria are both quality right-handed relievers that are just one year from free agency, though neither is signed at a bargain rate. Herrera projects to earn $8.3MM in arbitration, while Soria is still owed $10MM through the end of his contract. Jason Hammel didn’t have a strong first season in Kansas City but ate up 180 innings with quality K/BB numbers and a 4.37 FIP. He’s still owed $11MM through 2o18. Left-hander Danny Duffy, signed for another four years and $60MM, would represent one of the top starting pitching options on the trade market if the Royals field offers on him.

[Related: Kansas City Royals Offseason Outlook]

Interestingly, both Dodd and Rosenthal report that even as the Royals embark on a rebuild, they’re still in pursuit of a long-term deal with Hosmer. Per Dodd, team officials “see rebuilding scenarios that include” Hosmer in the fold. He’s still just 28 years of age, so Hosmer could indeed still be in his prime even at the conclusion of a two- or three-year rebuilding cycle, but it nonetheless seems counter-intuitive to sign him to what would almost certainly be a franchise-record contract while also dealing away big league talent.

Furthermore, re-signing Hosmer would effectively cost the Royals a top pick, as they currently project to receive three compensatory selections after the first round of next year’s draft due to the losses of Hosmer, Moustakas and Cain (assuming each signs for at least a $50MM guarantee, which seems likely). Those picks would not only give the Royals five picks in the top 40 or so selections of the draft — Kansas City also has a pick in Competitive Balance Round A — they’d also significantly bolster the Royals’ league-allotted draft bonus pool. Each of those comp picks for the loss of Hosmer, Moustakas and Cain would add about $2MM (give or take $100K) to the Royals’ draft pool, based on last year’s slot values.

Of course, it remains to be seen whether Hosmer even has interest in returning to a Royals team that could spend the first two or three years of that contract losing more than it wins. If Hosmer’s market fails to develop, it certainly stands to reason that a return to the only organization he’s ever known could be a nice safety net. But, it’ll likely be difficult to sell Hosmer on staying in Kansas City while simultaneously trading away his longtime teammates for younger, unproven commodities.

If the Royals do deal away big league talent without acquiring much in the way of reinforcements for the 2018 roster, they’ll join the White Sox and Tigers as rebuilding clubs in the same division. That would seemingly give the Indians and Twins all the more motivation to act aggressively as they seek to bolster their clubs this winter, as few teams ever have the luxury of competing in a division where three of their four primary rivals are largely punting on the season at hand.

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