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Framber Valdez

Poll: Would You Rather Have Framber Valdez Or Ranger Suarez?

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The 2025-26 offseason hasn’t been exceptionally slow overall to this point, with 30 of MLBTR’s Top 50 free agents already signed in addition to plenty of significant trades. With that said, however, things have been unusually quiet at the top of the class. Outside of an early strike by the Blue Jays to land Dylan Cease back in November, the only free agents in MLBTR’s Top 10 who have signed are Kyle Schwarber, who was always expected to re-up with the Phillies in relatively short order, and the NPB duo of Munetaka Murakami and Tatsuya Imai, both of whom had firm deadlines to sign a contract due to the rules of the posting process. The rest of the offseason’s top free agents are still out there, and while plenty of attention has been paid to the four best hitters available—Kyle Tucker, Bo Bichette, Alex Bregman, and Cody Bellinger—less fanfare has been made about the two best pitchers available.

With Cease and Imai off the market, the only two pitchers from MLBTR’s top 10 still available are lefties Framber Valdez and Ranger Suarez. Both are on the shortlist of the most talented lefty starters in the game at the moment, with solid track records of success in both the regular season and postseason. Both players took some time to get their careers into full swing; each became a full-time starter at age-26, though Valdez reached that point during the shortened 2020 season so he didn’t receive a full slate of starts until the following year. Suarez also received a half-season of starts before getting a full workload, as he joined the Phillies’ rotation on a permanent basis in August of 2021 with 12 starts down the stretch and never looked back. Since joining their respective rotations full time, each has proven to be a reliable front-end arm.

In terms of overall track record, Valdez has the edge. Valdez has an extra year as a starter under his belt, but even by that metric, volume is a clear separator. His 153 games started since joining the Astros’ rotation aren’t too far ahead of the 116 starts Suarez has made when factoring that extra year, but Valdez’s 973 innings of work utterly dwarf Suarez’s 654 frames. Things are much closer in terms of results on the field, but Valdez still has the edge with a 3.23 ERA and 3.38 FIP to Suarez’s 3.39 ERA and 3.45 FIP. Suarez’s 22.2% strikeout rate, 7.4% walk rate, and 51.3% ground ball rate are all solid. But Valdez’s has the edge in terms of punchouts and grounders, with only slightly more free passes: 23.8% strikeout rate, 8.0% walk rate, and 61.5% ground ball rate.

That combination of volume and results may paint the picture that Valdez is clearly the superior arm, but there’s more factors to consider. Suarez and Valdez enjoyed virtually identical platform seasons, with a 3.59 ERA and 3.57 FIP for Suarez to Valdez’s 3.66 ERA and 3.37 FIP. The pair’s strikeout rate was also mostly the same, (23.3% for Valdez and 23.2% for Suarez), but Suarez took a big step forward in terms of walk rate and issued free passes at just a 5.8% clip to Valdez’s 8.5%.

That ability to cut down walks is certainly attractive, and it’s fair to argue that Suarez is trending upward while Valdez could be starting to show some signs of decline. That’s especially relevant given the age gap between the two; Suarez is two years younger than Valdez, entering free agency at age-30 as opposed to age-32. MLBTR projected both pitchers for five-year deals back in November. Using those predictions, Suarez would be paid through age-34 while Valdez would be on the books through age-36 on an identical contract. Suarez would also be cheaper, at least according to MLBTR, with a $115MM prediction for Suarez compared to a $150MM prediction for Valdez.

In addition, Suarez’s postseason resume is nearly spotless, with a career 1.48 ERA in the playoffs. By contrast, Valdez has a 4.34 postseason ERA. That comes in double the innings (85 frames against Suarez’s 42 2/3 innings of work), but the elder lefty’s work in recent years has been particularly lackluster; he’s posted an 8.27 ERA in his last four playoff starts. A strong postseason resume isn’t typically a major factor in the sort of nine-figure deals Valdez and Suarez are seeking, but it could easily serve as a tiebreaker for some clubs between two pitchers this similar. Another soft factor that could play a role in differentiating the two is an incident last season where Astros catcher Cesar Salazar was struck by a pitch from Valdez in a cross-up situation. Speculation arose at the time that the pitch was intentional on Valdez’s part, though both players declared it an accident afterwards.

How do MLBTR readers view the two lefties, and which would you rather have over the next five years? Are Valdez’s superior volume and results enough to overcome Suarez’s advantages in age and postseason performance? Have your say in the poll below:

Mets Prefer Trade Market To Free Agency In Rotation Search

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The Mets are still in the market for upgrades to their starting pitching group, but they prefer to bolster the rotation by way of a trade rather than via free agency, Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic report.

It’s not exactly a surprising revelation. We’re one month removed from initial reporting that the Mets were reluctant to sign a free agent pitcher to a long-term contract, and the Mets have since shown aversions to long-term deals for incumbent stars like Edwin Diaz and especially Pete Alonso — both of whom have now signed elsewhere. The Mets also traded the remaining five years of Brandon Nimmo’s contract for three of Marcus Semien. It seems there’s a real push to avoid clogging up the long-term books with many major deals beyond the lengthy commitments to Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor.

It’s worth noting, too, that the Mets are deep in both top prospects and young big leaguers that could be marketed to other clubs. Their farm system is generally regarded as one of the ten best in the game. Following this year’s draft and trade deadline, Baseball America ranked the Mets’ system ninth in the game. MLB.com ranked it seventh. BA counts five Mets prospects (Carson Benge, Nolan McLean, Jonah Tong, Jett Williams, Brandon Sproat) among the top 100 in the game. Young infielders Mark Vientos, Ronny Mauricio and Luisangel Acuña are all available in trade talks as well, per Rosenthal and Sammon.

One of the market’s most notable trade candidates, Miami righty Edward Cabrera, came off the board yesterday when he was traded to the Cubs for a three-player package headlined by top young outfielder Owen Caissie. Presumably, the Mets would’ve had to pay an even steeper price as a division rival, but Cabrera’s removal from the market only thins out the supply and creates more urgency among teams still looking for meaningful rotation upgrades (e.g. Mets, Yankees, Orioles, D-backs, Padres).

The Mets have been connected to a handful of possible trade targets this winter. They’ve reportedly spoken to the Padres about Nick Pivetta and to the Brewers about Freddy Peralta. They were also among the teams in on Cabrera and had some interest in Minnesota’s Joe Ryan before the Twins signaled that they’re not planning to move him (or rotation-mate Pablo Lopez). They’ve surely at least checked in on other prominent and under-the-radar names on the market alike.

The Mets went to three years to sign Devin Williams in free agency, acquired three years of Semien and (reportedly) were unwilling to go beyond three years for Pete Alonso. Their free-agent deals with infielder Jorge Polanco and righty Luke Weaver only span a two-year term. There’s been no firm indication that they’re wholly against surpassing three years for any free agent, but that certainly seems to be the team’s comfort zone with additions to the roster.

In fact, since being named president of baseball operations, David Stearns hasn’t committed more than three years to any free agent other than Soto, whose signing was more of an ownership-level move. Stearns’ largest signing after Soto was Sean Manaea, whose three-year, $75MM deal contains more than $23MM in deferred money. Currently, the Mets only have four players on guaranteed contracts in 2028 (Soto, Lindor, Williams, Semien). By 2029, Soto and Lindor are the only two players on the books.

If there’s a reluctance to guarantee players anything into 2029 and beyond, as at least ostensibly seems to the be the case, that’ll make it quite difficult to land any of the top remaining free agent names. The Mets sat down with Framber Valdez back in November, and Rosenthal and Sammon indicate that there’s still some interest there. Of course, signing Valdez would surely require going beyond three years — likely to at least a five-year pact. Ranger Suarez, like Valdez, figures to be looking for at least a five-year deal in free agency. If either pitcher lingers into February or March, perhaps they’ll pivot to a shorter-term deal with opt-out opportunities. Beyond that, a match with the Mets seems hard to envision — at least based on the team’s recent tendencies under the current baseball operations regime.

RosterResource currently projects the Mets for a $294MM payroll and just over $296MM of luxury-tax obligations. That puts the Mets about $8MM shy of the top tier of penalization, which they’ve crossed in each of the past four seasons. They currently owe a 95% tax on any dollars spent up to $304MM worth of tax obligations. From that point on, they’ll be taxed at a 110% rate for every dollar spent.

Astros Notes: Valdez, CBT, Infield, Brown

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The Astros came into the offseason clearly needing rotation upgrades, due to a variety of injuries and the departure of Framber Valdez to free agency. Valdez is still unsigned but it always seemed likely that he and the Astros would part ways. That’s seems even more likely now that the Astros have added Tatsuya Imai, Mike Burrows and Ryan Weiss to their starting pitching group. General manager Dana Brown was asked about Valdez in an appearance on MLB Network and acknowledged that Valdez is still available but also spoke about him as though he’s already gone.

“Well, look, Framber’s still out there,” Brown said. “We don’t know how that’s going to play out. But we know that we had to get some starting pitching. So, we’ve been able to acquire three starters because we know Framber is still on the market. Us getting Mike Burrows is big, and Ryan Weiss, that was also big. So, we added those three guys. When you’re losing Framber — he’s still on the market, he’s out there — but if you don’t get him, of course, you’re losing those innings. So, adding these guys, we feel really good about it. They’re all pretty good competitors as well.”

It’s not especially surprising that things are playing out this way. Valdez is one of the top free agents of this winter’s class. At the beginning of the offseason, MLBTR predicted him for a $150MM guarantee over five years, $30MM in terms of average annual value. The Astros generally don’t like to spend huge money on pitching. Their franchise record guarantee for a pitcher is the $85MM extension for Lance McCullers Jr. back in 2021. Back in December, it was reported that the club had some contact with Valdez’s camp, but that was before the Imai deal.

Beyond their natural aversion to spending on pitchers, the Astros seemingly came into this winter with a tight budget, due to their preference for avoiding the competitive balance tax. They had enough wiggle room to add Imai, but his three-year, $54MM deal comes with an AAV of $18MM. That’s still a decent number but well below the projections for Valdez. Weiss is only guaranteed $2.6MM on a one-year deal. Houston had to give up a couple of notable prospects to get Burrows but he’s still making the league minimum.

RosterResource currently projects the Astros for a CBT number of about $238MM. That puts them about $6MM below next year’s base CBT threshold of $244MM. In recent years, the club’s modus operandi has been to get close to the line without going over, though they ended up surging over the line in each of the past two years.

Going into 2024, they were a bit under the line until Kendall Graveman required season-ending shoulder surgery in mid-January. Suddenly feeling the bullpen was too weak, Houston signed Josh Hader and flew over the tax line. In 2025, they were under the tax line for most of the season but then jumped at the chance to pick up Carlos Correa, going into CBT territory in the process.

Once again, they have positioned themselves just under the tax, though final status isn’t calculated until the end of the season. That means that they could decide to pay the tax once again for the right opportunity.

“Everybody writes that I’m afraid of the luxury tax,” owner Jim Crane said yesterday, as relayed by Chandler Rome of The Athletic. “I’m not necessarily afraid of it but I run the team like a business and there’s only so much resources you can put into it without going deep in the hole. We don’t operate like a lot of the bigger market teams but you’ve seen over the years we’ll spend the money when we think it’s right and we’ll be aggressive when we have to be.”

Taking the comments of Brown and Crane together, it seems possible that the Astros may have already made their most significant moves of the winter. A few depth transactions would still be likely but the roster might be mostly set. It’s theoretically possible for the Astros to trade an infielder, which would open up a bit of a playing time logjam and also potentially some payroll space, but Brown also downplayed that.

“I think there’s a chance where we can get all of these guys a ton of at-bats,” Brown said in the MLB Network appearance linked above, “whether it’s the DH slot, whether it’s giving some guys some time off. I don’t think all these guys are going to play 162 games, right? You have guys that may play 140 and so there’s going to be some at-bats. It protects you when you want to give guys rest. So, we’re looking at this in many ways. But, you know, we still are listening to other teams. We have teams calling us about some of our players. We’ll still listen.”

The Astros currently have Correa at third, Jeremy Peña at shortstop, Jose Altuve at second base and Christian Walker at first base. That leaves Isaac Paredes potentially splitting time at the corners with Correa and Walker. He has second base experience but hasn’t played there since 2023. Altuve played some outfield in 2025 but didn’t grade out well there. Yordan Alvarez should get most of the DH time. He can also play the outfield, where the Astros have Jake Meyers, Cam Smith, Jesús Sánchez, Zach Cole and Zach Dezenzo.

Walker is making $20MM annually through 2027. Paredes is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $9.3MM salary in his penultimate arbitration season. Given the somewhat crowded infield picture and the tight budget, there’s an argument for the Astros trading someone to free up some cash. However, based on Brown’s comments, it seems the club is leaning towards keeping the whole group and portioning out playing time with some off-days to keep everyone fresh.

Perhaps a trade will come together, given Brown’s admission that they will listen when other teams call. But if the status quo holds, that doesn’t leave much room for any more notable rotation additions, unless the Astros decide to again shoot over the CBT line. Barring that scenario, the Astros will likely open the season with a six-man rotation consisting of Hunter Brown, Imai, Burrows, Weiss and Cristian Javier with guys like Nate Pearson, AJ Blubaugh, Spencer Arrighetti, Jason Alexander, McCullers and Miguel Ullola in the mix for starts.

Speaking of Hunter Brown, Dana Brown was asked about the possibility of signing the righty to an extension and GM said they will broach the subject at some point. “We had some discussions with Hunter Brown about two years ago and we expect that to heat up again. Look, he’s got Boras, so it won’t be easy. But at the end of the day, we will definitely talk to Hunter Brown about an extension at some point.”

It was reported last year that Hunter expressed interest in an extension prior to the 2024 season but talks went nowhere and he lated hired Scott Boras to represent him. Boras clients do sometimes sign extensions but it’s a bit of a rare occurrence, as the GM alluded to.

What also complicates matters is that Brown has taken his performance up quite a bit since then. He posted a 5.09 earned run average in 2023, his first full season in the bigs. He dropped that to 3.49 in 2024 and then 2.43 last year, finishing third in 2025 American League Cy Young voting behind Tarik Skubal and Garrett Crochet.

Hunter is now three years from free agency, meaning his earning power could be pushing towards the upper levels of Houston’s comfort zone. The Astros signed Javier to a $64MM extension going into 2023, when he was between three and four years of service. Brown’s demand could be reasonably in that range and would only get higher as he gets closer to free agency. Crochet just set a new bar for guys within two years of the open market, signing a $170MM deal with the Red Sox last winter. Given the gap in those numbers, Houston would surely be wise to get something doon sooner rather than later.

A big extension for Brown has the potential for increasing the club’s CBT number. Even if the deal is structured so that his salary increases gradually over the years, a player’s CBT hit is calculated based on a contract’s average annual value. Perhaps the Astros would like to first sign Hunter to a one-year deal for 2026, where he’s projected for a $5.7MM salary. They could then have the extension start in 2027 so that it doesn’t impact the 2026 CBT. That would increase the CBT hit in future seasons but the McCullers deal is off the books after 2026 and it’s possible Imai will also opt out after one season in Houston, freeing up some future CBT room.

Photo courtesy of Troy Taormina, Imagn Images

Valdez, Suarez Among Orioles’ Targets In Continuing Rotation Search

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Jan. 6: Both Framber Valdez and Ranger Suarez remain under consideration by the Orioles, reports Andy Kostka of the Baltimore Banner. The O’s have already been reported to have interest in both lefties, but that was prior to their recent slate of pitching acquisitions and prior to their $155MM signing of Alonso, so it’s notable that they’re still shopping in the deep end of the free agent pool even after spending a combined $195MM in free agency and taking on another $26MM or so via trade.

Jan. 5: The Orioles have made a couple of rotation moves in recent weeks but that doesn’t necessarily mean they’re done. Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic report today that the club is still looking for another starting pitcher, which could be either via free agency or the trade market.

Adding to the rotation has been an obvious goal for quite a while. Baltimore starters posted a collective 4.65 earned run average in 2025, which was better than just six other clubs in the majors. At season’s end, Tomoyuki Sugano and Zach Eflin became free agents, further thinning out the group.

Accordingly, the O’s have been connected to a wide number of free agents and trade candidates this winter. They made a notable move a couple of weeks ago, sending four prospects and a draft pick to the Rays for Shane Baz. A week ago, they brought back Eflin via a one-year, $10MM deal with a mutual option for 2027.

If the season started today, the rotation would feature Kyle Bradish, Trevor Rogers, Baz and Eflin in four spots. Dean Kremer would be the favorite for the final slot. Guys like Tyler Wells, Chayce McDermott, Cade Povich and Brandon Young also on the roster but have options and could be sent to the minors if everyone is healthy. Albert Suárez is back on a minor league deal and prospect Trey Gibson is also lurking as another non-roster option.

That’s a decent group, and a team source describes it as “adequate” to The Athletic. For a club looking to rebound from a nightmare season, it’s understandable that they still want more. That’s especially true considering it’s hard to rely on this collection of arms.

Bradish just returned from Tommy John surgery late last year and made just six starts. He only made eight starts in 2024 before the surgery, so that’s just 14 starts and 77 1/3 innings over the past two years. Wells is similar, having made just seven starts over the past two years due to his own elbow surgery. Rogers was great last year but limited to 18 starts by a knee injury. Due to multiple ailments over his career, he’s never topped 133 innings in a big league season. Baz took the ball 31 times in 2025 and logged 166 1/3 frames but that was his first time going beyond 14 starts and his first time hitting the 80-inning mark. Eflin underwent back surgery in August. He recently said he’s hoping to be ready by Opening Day but that doesn’t seem to be a lock.

Adding another arm would make things a bit cluttered if everyone is healthy, but that’s a big if, considering the total track record of the group. Given the number of depth options, the O’s would presumably be looking for more upside with another rotation addition.

Rosenthal and Sammon mention Framber Valdez, Ranger Suárez and Zac Gallen as free agent possibilities, in addition to trade candidates Edward Cabrera, Freddy Peralta and MacKenzie Gore. That appears to simply be a list of the best pitchers still available, as opposed to reporting on anyone the O’s are specifically targeting, though the club has been connected to those free agents as well as Cabrera and Gore earlier in the offseason.

RosterResource projects the O’s for a payroll of $147MM next year. They opened 2025 at $165MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Signing one of the Valdez/Suárez/Gallen trio would likely require the O’s to pay $20 to $30MM annually. That would involve going beyond last year’s spending but not by much. It’s also possible they could save themselves a few bucks if they can trade Ryan Mountcastle, now that the Pete Alonso signing crowds him out. Mountcastle is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $7.8MM salary this year.

The trade candidates would cost less financially. Peralta will make just $8MM next year. Gore and Cabrera are projected for $4.7MM and $3.7MM respectively. But of course, the O’s would have to send something of value to those other clubs in trade. As mentioned, the O’s just sent out a big package of prospects in the Baz deal, which may lower their desire to further deplete the farm system with another big trade.

Photo courtesy of Nick Turchiaro, Imagn Images

Astros Notes: Valdez, Meyers, Roster Needs

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Houston general manager Dana Brown spoke with reporters (including the Houston Chronicle’s Matt Kawahara, the Athletic’s Chandler Rome, and MLB.com’s Daniel Kramer) on Friday about several matters related to the Astros’ offseason, and there was naturally plenty of talk about the big three-team, six-player trade between the Astros, Pirates, and Rays.  The Astros’ end of the deal saw first-year outfielder Jacob Melton and minor league righty Anderson Brito dealt to Tampa Bay, while Houston’s rotation was bolstered by the addition of right-hander Mike Burrows.

Obtaining a controllable and talented young arm like Burrows is a nice get for the Astros, even at the substantial cost of two notable youngsters from Houston’s farm system.  As Brown put it, “it’s not easy to part ways with successful pieces that you have that are high-end prospects.  But when there are a lot of teams that need starters, that’s where the market is.  A lot of teams need starters, and so you don’t want to lose out.  So you have to get creative and pull from your depth and maybe fill that spot.”

Burrows might just be the start of Houston’s work on this front, as Brown said his club “will definitely pursue more pitching.”  This pursuit has included at least some discussion with Framber Valdez about a potential reunion, but Brown naturally didn’t divulge any details beyond saying that he’s had “some back and forth” with Valdez’s camp.

This is the first indication of any talks between Valdez and the Astros since Brown’s season wrap-up presser at the end of September, when he stated that the two sides would remain in touch.  While Brown’s latest comment doesn’t technically provide any new information on this front, it is somewhat notable that Valdez might still remain on Houston’s radar even in a slight fashion, as it has widely been assumed that he’ll be signing elsewhere.

The Astros are known to be looking to avoid paying the luxury tax for the third consecutive season, and Valdez is likely to command a deal far too pricey for Houston’s liking.  MLBTR projected Valdez for a five-year, $150MM contract, and such teams as the Orioles, Mets, and Giants have been linked to the two-time All-Star.  That interest hasn’t resulted in a deal yet, however, and some obstacles remain for Valdez with any of those suitors — the Giants and Mets reportedly aren’t keen on long-term contracts for pitchers, and the O’s already made a massive free agent strike by signing Pete Alonso.

As long as Valdez remains unsigned, there’s still a chance a deal could be worked out between the two sides.  It costs Brown nothing to check in with Valdez out of just due diligence, just in case some common ground could be found or if Valdez’s asking price drops.  That being said, the far likelier scenario is that Valdez will be on another team’s roster in 2026, and the Astros will look to add pitching via lower-cost signings, and/or trades.

Brown said he is open to all possibilities on the trade front, though he again suggested that the Astros weren’t necessarily in a rush to trade either from their crowded infield, or known trade target Jake Meyers.  Speaking of Meyers specifically, Brown said “it’s a really good deal, we may consider it.  But right now, Meyers is going to be a guy for us that’s going to play center field and it looks like he’s the frontline guy as of today.”

The fact that the Astros moved Melton is notable, as he was thought to be a potential heir apparent in center field if Meyers was dealt.  Brown said Houston was ultimately comfortable dealing Melton due to the presence of Meyers and Zach Cole as center field options, plus Lucas Spence and Joseph Sullivan further down the minor league pipeline.  Beyond Meyers, Cole is the only member of that group with any MLB experience, and Cole’s resume consists of 15 games with the Astros in 2025.

Beyond the rotation, Brown said the Astros are also looking for relief pitching and a backup catcher.  Victor Caratini remains available in free agency, though the expectation is that Caratini will be able to find more of a regular catching job with another team than he would be rejoining the Astros to share time with Yainer Diaz behind the plate.

Orioles Remain Involved On Top Free Agent Starters After Alonso Deal

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After making a massive splash on offense, the Orioles figure to turn their attention to the rotation. That could also come via the open market, as the MLB Network’s Jon Morosi relays that Baltimore remains in the mix for the top free agent starters. Andy Kostka of The Baltimore Banner similarly suggests that the O’s have ongoing interest in Ranger Suárez.

Baltimore committed $31MM annually on a surprising five-year deal to add Pete Alonso. It’s easily the biggest free agent move of Mike Elias’ tenure leading baseball operations. That also means the long-term books are still fairly open. Alonso joins Ryan Helsley, Tyler O’Neill and Samuel Basallo as the only players signed beyond next season. Helsley and O’Neill come off the books after 2027, while Basallo won’t make more than $4MM in a season until 2030.

A significant arbitration class clutters the short-term picture a little more. RosterResource projects their 2026 payroll obligations around $148MM. (That’s using a $31MM estimated salary for Alonso, but the annual breakdown on his deal hasn’t been reported.) Baltimore had a little more than $159MM committed to their Opening Day payroll in 2025. They’d need to push that higher to make a second notable free agent move, but that appears to be in play headed into the second full season of David Rubenstein’s ownership tenure.

Adding a front-line starter alongside Trevor Rogers and Kyle Bradish is the clear objective now for Elias and company. Alongside Suárez, they’ve been tied to Framber Valdez, Michael King and Tatsuya Imai. Elias has already said he’s open to sacrificing a draft pick to sign a player who rejected a qualifying offer. That applies to Valdez, Suárez and King. They did not give up any draft capital to sign Alonso, who was ineligible for a QO, but their unsuccessful $150MM bid for Kyle Schwarber demonstrates that willingness to add a qualified free agent.

Baltimore is juggling the free agent pursuits against possibilities on the trade front. (Adding another right-handed power bat only further clouds the path to playing time for former top corner infield prospect Coby Mayo, for instance.) The Athletic reported last night that they’ve been among the most aggressive teams in talks with the Marlins regarding Edward Cabrera. Morosi also mentioned Nationals lefty MacKenzie Gore as a potential trade target for the O’s. The two parties have had multiple conversations surrounding Gore, who’s controlled for two more seasons via arbitration.

Gore is a natural target for any team seeking rotation help. The former No. 3 overall pick was once the top pitching prospect in the sport, and while he’s yet to develop into an established ace, he’s shown glimpses of that ability. Gore has made at least 27 starts in three straight seasons for Washington. His 4.15 earned run average in that time is solid but not particularly eye-catching. Metrics like SIERA (3.99) and FIP (4.01) are only a bit more bullish.

That said, Gore spent much of the season’s first half pitching like a Cy Young contender. He carried a sparkling 3.02 ERA into the All-Star break — a mark supported by a dominant 30.5% strikeout rate and a strong 7.7% walk rate. That strikeout rate trailed only Tarik Skubal, Zack Wheeler, Garrett Crochet and Hunter Brown. His 14.2% swinging-strike rate checked in behind only Skubal, Wheeler and Dylan Cease. Gore looked to be in the midst of a full-fledged breakout, finally realizing his ceiling as a No. 1 or 2 starter.

The next three starts were a nightmare. Gore was rocked for 23 runs in just 15 1/3 innings, ballooning his ERA into the mid-4.00s. He rebounded over his final seven starts but also spent a couple weeks on the injured list due to shoulder inflammation. The 26-year-old lefty (27 in February) finished out what had looked like such a promising campaign with a respectable but unremarkable 4.17 ERA in 159 2/3 innings.

Gore is something of an unfinished product, though other more analytically inclined clubs might hope they can coax another level of performance out of him. The Nationals remade their front office this offseason but had generally been viewed as behind the curve when it comes to incorporating data into their pitching development. On a smaller scale, we saw a big jump in Kyle Finnegan’s performance with Detroit. An acquiring team would surely be hoping for similar improvements from Gore. The pieces are certainly in place. Gore’s 95.5 mph average four-seamer is strong, particularly for a lefty, and his 13.3% swinging-strike rate is already excellent as well.

While Alonso isn’t limiting the free agent pitching possibilities, it probably takes them out of the running for another massive move on a bat. Morosi reported yesterday that the O’s had been in contact with Kyle Tucker’s camp. Baltimore always seemed like a longer shot on Tucker, and it’d be shocking if they add him on top of the Alonso agreement. The O’s already brought in Taylor Ward via trade and have a crowded corner outfield mix with O’Neill, Colton Cowser and Dylan Beavers. They’re likely to give some DH at-bats to whomever of Basallo and Adley Rutschman isn’t behind the plate and need to sort out whether there’s room on the roster at all for Mayo and Ryan Mountcastle.

Mets “Reluctant” To Make Long-Term Offers For Free Agent Starters

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While it’s no secret that addressing the top of the rotation is a priority for the Mets this winter, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports that the Mets are hesitant to make long-term offers to the top starters available in free agency this winter. Sammon adds that each of Framber Valdez, Tatsuya Imai, and Ranger Suarez would “hold some appeal” to the Mets on shorter-term deals.

At this point, it seems unlikely any of those pitchers will need to settle for something short-term. MLBTR predicted both Valdez and Imai to land six-year deals worth $150MM in free agency this winter as the offseason’s #6 and #7 free agents. Meanwhile, Suarez clocked in at #10 on MLBTR’s Top 50 MLB Free Agents list and was predicted for a five-year deal worth $115MM. Right-hander Dylan Cease jumped the market to sign a seven-year deal with the Blue Jays late last month. His $210MM guarantee exceeds the seven-year, $189MM guarantee MLBTR predicted for the right-hander, although that deal does include deferred money that lowers the net present value of the deal a bit.

Even with that deferred money, however, Cease’s seven-year pact is hardly a troublesome omen for Valdez, Imai, and Suarez. Imai in particular won’t celebrate his 28th birthday until May and that youth figures to help him land a long-term deal this winter. Of course, free agency can be unpredictable. While the trend of short-term deals with opt outs have been more common for position players (Carlos Correa, Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Pete Alonso) than pitchers in recent years, a few hurlers have found an unexpectedly soft market as well. Jack Flaherty was widely expected to land a long-term deal in free agency last offseason but ended up signing for just two years with the Tigers. Two offseasons ago, Blake Snell was viewed as a shoo-in for a six-year deal but wound up signing with the Giants on a short-term, opt-out laden pact.

Perhaps the Mets are willing to be patient on the free agent market to see if another high-end starter falls through the cracks like Snell did during the 2023-24 offseason. Another option would be to move a tier down in free agency to sign a short-term deal with a player who has still shown front-of-the-rotation upside. Michael King is viewed as being a potential top-of-the-rotation arm whose years will be limited coming off an injury-marred season, and the Mets are among the teams with known interest. Sammon floats Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly as other possibilities, either of whom would be plausible fits. Kelly turned in a 3.52 ERA in 32 starts last year, but will be forced to stay short-term by the fact that he’ll play next season at the age of 37. Gallen has shown ace-level upside in the past and is only 30, but enters free agency coming off the worst season of his career.

Another option for the Mets would be to keep tabs on the trade market. Sammon notes that Pirates right-hander Mitch Keller is someone that New York would “likely” view as an upgrade to their internal rotation options, to say nothing of more established front-end options like Freddy Peralta or higher upside players like MacKenzie Gore and Edward Cabrera. Keller will make $54.5MM over the next three seasons, while Gore and Cabrera are controlled via arbitration through 2027 and ’28 respectively. Peralta (as well as ace lefty Tarik Skubal, should the Tigers make him available) would only be controlled for one season before they would hit free agency and surely seek the sort of long-term deals the Mets are looking to avoid.

Speculatively speaking, that could make a controllable starter like Keller, Gore, or Cabrera and ideal fit for the Mets. The club already appears motivated to make moves on the trade market this winter, with Kodai Senga and Jeff McNeil among the club’s rumored trade candidates. In addition to those veteran names, the Mets have a number of young infielders (Brett Baty, Mark Vientos, Luisangel Acuna, and Ronny Mauricio) who could be made available in the right deal. For a team like the Pirates or Marlins looking to add help on offense, any of those names would surely be attractive pieces to bring into the fold.

Of course, there’s no guarantee that a significant number of starting pitchers move on the trade market this winter. If a run on starting pitching begins in free agency while the Mets are focused on the trade market, the club could find that the patient approach it took backfired and left them without a true front-end talent to pursue—or that they had to pay a premium to land one of the last arms remaining on the market. It’s a difficult needle the Mets will have to thread if they want to land a front-end arm on a shorter-term arrangement, and fans are surely hoping they’ll do a better job of doing so than they did with last winter’s disappointing deals for Sean Manaea, Clay Holmes, and Frankie Montas. Of that trio, only Holmes managed to stick in the rotation by the end of the year.

Mets, Giants Met With Framber Valdez In November

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The Orioles are the only team publicly linked to Framber Valdez’s market this winter, and MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reports that Valdez and his reps indeed met with officials from the O’s at the GM Meetings in November.  Around that same time, however, the Giants and Mets also spoke with Valdez’s camp, which fits given how both teams are known to be looking for starting pitching help.

Valdez ranked sixth on MLBTR’s list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, with a predicted contract of five years and $150MM.  This projection makes San Francisco’s interest all the more intriguing, since both GM Zack Minasian and team chairman Greg Johnson have each stated since the GM Meetings that the Giants prefer to add pitchers on shorter-term contracts.  Valdez is entering his age-32 season, which may raise the risk level even further about making a big commitment to the left-hander now that he is past what are generally considered a player’s prime years.

The Giants’ stance doesn’t technically preclude a pursuit of Valdez, if the team perhaps offered the southpaw a short-term contract with a higher average annual value.  That said, Valdez’s age might make such a consideration unlikely on his end, as surely he wants to strike as lengthy and lucrative a deal as possible now that he has reached the open market.  Despite his age, Valdez is a workhorse who has tossed 767 2/3 innings over the last four seasons, and he has 85 more innings under his belt on his career postseason resume.

Valdez is a grounder specialist who doesn’t miss many bats, but that skillset would work just fine with Matt Chapman and Willy Adames backing him up in the San Francisco infield.  More pressingly, Valdez’s ability to eat up innings with quality work is a nice fit in a Giants rotation that has plenty of question marks beyond ace Logan Webb.

Robbie Ray and Landen Roupp project as the next two starters, and Ray is a free agent next winter while Roupp had a solid 2025 season but is an overall unproven commodity over the long term.  A collection of other younger and unproven arms (Hayden Birdsong, Trevor McDonald, Blade Tidwell, Carson Whisenhunt, Kai-Wei Teng, Keaton Winn) are currently in the mix for the fourth and fifth spots.  Signing Valdez would do a ton to solidify this group, as the Giants would have a very strong top three of Webb-Ray-Valdez that could easily line up as a playoff rotation, and Valdez would be the replacement for Ray if the former Cy Young Award winner went elsewhere after the 2026 campaign.

That said, it could all be a moot point if the Giants aren’t willing to splurge on a long-term pitching contract.  It could be that the Giants checked in with Valdez and other pitchers to get an early gauge on their expectations, and without much hope of finding a bargain, the team is now being open about its preference to stick with smaller (and presumably less-expensive) contracts.

Mets president of baseball David Stearns shares a similar view on starting pitching contracts, yet New York’s decision to stick to such deals with the likes of Sean Manaea, Frankie Montas, and Clay Holmes last winter backfired badly on the team.  These three pitchers and the other members of the rotation simply seemed to break down last season, leading to the team’s collapse in the second half as an influx of pitching prospects couldn’t stop the downward spiral.

Between the veterans (Manaea, Holmes, Kodai Senga, David Peterson) and the youngsters (Nolan McLean, Jonah Tong, Brandon Sproat, Christian Scott), the Mets have plenty of pitchers on hand, yet adding a durable frontline starter like Valdez would be a huge boost to this group.  In the wake of last year’s collapse, Stearns expressed regret over not doing more to reinforce the pitching staff, and owner Steve Cohen surely couldn’t have been pleased with how things played out.

The Amazins’ interest in upgrading their rotation has been evident by the many big names on their radar this winter.  Valdez joins the likes of Tatsuya Imai, Michael King, Ranger Suarez, Joe Ryan, and Tarik Skubal as free agents and trade candidates who have been liked to the Mets in some fashion.  It might be safe to guess at this point that the Mets will head into Opening Day with at least one big new arm at the front of their rotation, and it’s just a matter of whether the club will obtain their rotation help via trades or pricey signings.

The Best Fits For Framber Valdez

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Each offseason at MLBTR, we take a look at the potential markets for some of the top names in free agency. We've already covered the two best free agent hitters, Kyle Tucker and Bo Bichette. With Dylan Cease off the board on what is likely to be the biggest pitching contract of the winter, we'll look at the market for the best left-hander: Framber Valdez.

Valdez has been one of the most durable and consistent pitchers in the sport over the past six seasons. This year's 3.66 earned run average was his highest since he established himself as a starter with the Astros in 2020. Valdez has surpassed 175 innings in four straight seasons. He sits in the 95-96 MPH range and is capable of both missing bats and keeping the ball on the ground. Valdez doesn't have the strikeout ceiling that Cease brings to the table, but he has fanned an above-average 23-25% of opponents in four straight years. His true standout trait is a ground-ball rate that annually ranks among the sport's highest, including a huge 58.6% mark this past season.

The plus stuff from the left side and combination of whiffs and grounders makes Valdez fairly similar to Max Fried. He's not going to match the eight-year, $218MM contract that Fried commanded when he was headed into his age-31 season. Valdez, who turned 32 last month, is probably looking at a five- or six-year deal at a premium annual rate. MLBTR predicted a five-year, $150MM contract that made him our #6 free agent. He's tied with Tatsuya Imai for the second-largest predicted contracts among pitchers (behind Cease, whom we had at $189MM over seven years).

Valdez rejected a qualifying offer from the Astros, who are not expected to make much of an effort to bring him back. They'll receive a compensatory pick -- specifics of which won't be determined until MLB finalizes the 2025 luxury tax calculations -- while the signing team will forfeit draft and/or international bonus pool space. That shouldn't be much of a deterrent for arguably the best immediate rotation upgrade available.

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Orioles Showing Interest In Kyle Schwarber, Tatsuya Imai, Framber Valdez

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Earlier this month, Orioles president of baseball operations Mike Elias said his team is open to signing free agents who have rejected a qualifying offer, and would therefore cost the O’s their third-highest selection in the 2026 draft in addition to whatever the free agent would command in salary.  Of the nine players who rejected the QO, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that Baltimore has shown some interest in Framber Valdez, Kyle Schwarber, and Dylan Cease (before Cease signed with the Blue Jays yesterday).  In addition to qualified free agents, the Orioles have “checked in on” Tatsuya Imai, as part of the team’s explorations of the upper tiers of the pitching market.

Heyman also linked Baltimore to Pete Alonso a couple of weeks ago, but now notes that the chances of a signing may have dimmed since the Orioles retained Ryan Mountcastle past the non-tender deadline.  This doesn’t mean that Mountcastle couldn’t still be traded or cut loose entirely if a premium bat became a realistic option for Baltimore, though Elias said earlier this week that the team thinks Mountcastle can rebound after a hamstring strain hampered his production in 2025.

Signing Alonso or Schwarber would further deepen what is already perhaps an overcrowded mix of position players in Baltimore.  Schwarber can play a corner outfield spot on an occasional basis but is largely a DH-only player at this stage of his career, further reducing the Orioles’ flexibility in trying to find at-bats for the rest of its current players.  A trade or two might ease up this logjam, of course, and the Orioles could then acquire pitching via the trade market rather than free agency.

Even if a Schwarber or an Alonso creates some questions about lineup construction, the Orioles would happily accept that as a proverbial “good problem to have” if it means adding an elite power bat.  Schwarber and Alonso are also both known to be clubhouse leaders, and adding a veteran mentor to a young O’s team might carry benefits beyond just what either player can provide at the plate.

There is a widespread belief that the Phillies will pay top dollar to re-sign Schwarber, but naturally that hasn’t stopped other teams from looking into his market.  The Orioles join the Red Sox and Pirates as teams known to have shown interest in Schwarber’s services, and clubs like the Reds and Yankees have been more speculatively linked.  Alonso’s market hasn’t been as robust in terms of public interest, though the Mets remain in the mix for another reunion with their longtime slugger.

The Orioles have already added one prominent bat this offseason by acquiring Taylor Ward from the Angels for Grayson Rodriguez, in a move that surprised some pundits since it further reduced the Orioles’ list of rotation options.  This could indicate that if the O’s do break the bank on a big-ticket signing, it will be for a starting pitcher to help stabilize the rotation.  Cease’s rather quick departure from the market (and to an AL East rival) only puts more pressure on the Orioles to find another frontline arm.

Valdez or Imai would certainly fit the bill, albeit in two different fashions.  Valdez is a proven commodity at the MLB level, and is particularly a known quantity to Elias since Valdez joined the Astros organization as an international signing and then broke into the majors when Elias was still working in Houston’s front office.  Imai is over four and a half years younger than Valdez and perhaps has more pure upside based on his results in Japan, but it remains to be seen if Imai can translate that success over to the majors.  The O’s also don’t have a long track record in signing Japanese talent, though the club did add Tomoyuki Sugano last winter.

Tyler O’Neill’s three-year, $49.5MM contract remains the only multi-year free agent deal the Orioles have signed during Elias’ seven years running the front office, though in fairness, much of Elias’ tenure was spent either rebuilding or working under some ownership turmoil.  David Rubenstein’s purchase of the franchise in early 2024 didn’t immediately lead to a huge payroll boost, though the club did ink star prospect Samuel Basallo to an eight-year, $67MM extension this past summer.  Basallo and O’Neill represent the only contracts on Baltimore’s books beyond 2026, and while the Orioles certainly have interest in locking up other young stars to extensions, there is plenty of future financial room for the O’s to make a splashy signing (or two) this winter.

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