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Framber Valdez, Tucker Davidson To Start Game 5 Of World Series

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The Astros will turn to Framber Valdez to stave off elimination in tonight’s fifth game of the World Series, while the Braves will kick off a bullpen game with another rookie pitcher.  The Braves announced this afternoon that left-hander Tucker Davidson will get the start (or, more accurately, serve as the opener) in what will be Davidson’s first career postseason appearance, and only his sixth career games at the Major League level.  Davidson was added to the Braves’ World Series roster as an injury replacement after Charlie Morton suffered a fractured fibula during Game 1.

Davidson made one start for Atlanta in 2020 and then posted a 3.60 ERA over four starts and 20 innings this season, with his most recent MLB outing coming back on June 15 due to a forearm injury.  In fact, Davidson has only pitched one game total since that June 15 start, tossing three innings for Triple-A Gwinnett on the final day of the minor league season (October 3).

Though Davidson is one of the better pitching prospects in Atlanta’s farm system, obviously it’s anyone’s guess as to what he’ll be able to deliver on the mound, even in what might amount to just an inning of work.  That said, given how the rest of the Braves bullpen has stifled Houston’s lineup throughout the World Series, Davidson’s task is just to avoid disaster and then turn things over to his veteran teammates.

The Braves followed this same script in Game 4, as rookie Dylan Lee worked as the opener and pitched to four batters, recording one out and allowing a run on a hit and two walks.  Kyle Wright then entered the game to bail Lee out, and Wright proceeded to toss 4 2/3 innings of one-run ball.  A scoreless inning each from Chris Martin, Tyler Matzek, Luke Jackson, and Will Smith later, and Atlanta sealed a 3-2 victory and a commanding 3-1 lead in the Series.

Astros hitters have combined for a meager .206/.291/.298 slash line over the four games against the Braves, with only Michael Brantley and Kyle Tucker showing any consistency at the plate.  Starting the southpaw Davidson in Game 5 could be a preventative measure on Atlanta’s part against Houston moving the left-handed hitting Tucker up in the batting order, though the Braves have plenty of other left-handed options on their roster.

The lack of production from the usually-reliable lineup is the biggest issue facing the Astros, as their own pitchers have done a solid job of limiting Atlanta’s offense over the last three games, with only one victory to show for it.  In Game 1, however, the Braves hit Valdez hard for five runs over two innings, setting up a 6-2 Atlanta win in the Series opener.

It has been a roller-coaster of a playoffs for Valdez, who has been very shaky outside of his eight-inning/one-run gem against the Red Sox in Game 5 of the ALCS.  In Valdez’s other three starts this postseason, he has been torched for 11 runs over nine innings of work.  With the season on the line for the Astros, manager Dusty Baker may have a relatively quick hook for Valdez at the first sign of trouble, as Houston will have every available arm at the ready to try and get the Series to a sixth game.

Astros Shuffle Rotation With Valdez, Odorizzi Set To Return

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Astros skipper Dusty Baker announced several changes to his team’s pitching staff during his Wednesday media session, revealing that lefty Framber Valdez will return from the injured list to make his season debut Friday and Jake Odorizzi will be activated to start Saturday’s game (all Twitter links via Jake Kaplan of The Athletic). That’s the good news, but Baker also announced that righty Lance McCullers Jr. is headed to the 10-day IL due to shoulder soreness. The team does not believe the issue to be serious at this point.

The Astros have also selected the contract of right-hander Ralph Garza from Triple-A Sugar Land. Injured righty Josh James was moved from the 10-day IL to the 60-day IL to open a roster spot. Lastly, Baker said right-hander Cristian Javier will be moved to the bullpen to accommodate the returns of Valdez and Odorizzi.

It’s a broad-ranging series of roster moves and role changes that carry significant implications for the Astros’ outlook moving forward. The 27-year-old Valdez broke out as one of the team’s best starters in 2020 and was expected to occupy a key role near the top of the rotation in ’21, but a broken ring finger sustained on a comebacker in Spring Training placed his very season in jeopardy. Valdez opted not to undergo surgery that could have cost him the bulk of the year, and he’ll now return to the mound after missing approximately two months of action.

Valdez stepped up in the wake of Justin Verlander’s injury last year, logging 70 2/3 frames with a 3.57 ERA and even better FIP (2.85) and SIERA (3.23) marks. He fanned a hearty 26.4 percent of his opponents against just a 5.6 percent walk rate — all while inducing grounders at a 60 percent clip that ranked among the game’s best. That combination of missed bats, precise control and grounders is a time-honored recipe for success, and he’ll now look to build on last year’s performance to cement himself as one of the club’s best rotation arms.

Odorizzi, 31, inked a three-year deal with the Astros over the winter (the third of which is a player option that’s unlikely to be exercised but was included as a means of manipulating the luxury tax). He made a pair of starts for the ’Stros earlier this season after a short ramp-up before being placed on the IL with a pronator muscle strain. Those first two outings didn’t go well, but Odorizzi will look to put that pair of outings and an injury-ruined 2020 season with the Twins behind him.

It appears the return of Odorizzi and Valdez will be utilized by the Astros as a means of managing the 24-year-old Javier’s workload. He’s been quite good thus far in 2021, pitching to a 3.14 ERA with a 29.9 percent strikeout rate and a 10.8 percent walk rate. However, the 48 2/3 innings he’s thrown are already just six shy of his entire 2020 total, and there are still more than four months of regular-season play remaining (plus, the Astros hope, additional October ball to be played). A move to the ’pen will allow the ’Stros to more carefully monitor his overall innings count this year.

The role change doesn’t necessarily rule out a return to the rotation later in the season, and based on Javier’s first 103 big league innings, it’d be a shock if the organization didn’t view him as a starter moving forward. He’s pitched to a combined 3.32 ERA with a 27.5 percent strikeout rate and 9.6 percent walk rate through 21 appearances (19 of them starts). With Verlander and Zack Greinke both slated to reach free agency this winter, there could be a fairly straightforward path to rotation work for Javier in 2022 and beyond.

Turning to the other IL moves announced today, the move of James to the 60-day IL is a procedural one that doesn’t really impact his timeline back to the Majors. He’s been out all year while recovering from hip surgery and was said during Spring Training to be targeting a June return. Today’s placement on the 60-day IL merely means that he can’t be activated until May 31, which wasn’t going to happen anyhow.

The departure of McCullers will be felt in the short-term, as he’s logged an excellent 2.96 ERA through his first 51 2/3 frames this year. The right-hander elected to forgo free agency in favor of a five-year, $85MM extension offer from the Astros during Spring Training, and at least to this point, the 27-year-old looks like a pitcher capable of living up to that deal.

Garza, 27, isn’t considered to be among the team’s top-ranked prospects but has tossed 6 2/3 shutout innings in Sugar Land, yielding just a hit and three walks with 11 punchouts along the way. He’s spent parts of four seasons in Triple-A, pitching to a combined 3.80 ERA with a 26.2 percent strikeout rate. He’ll join the club’s bullpen for now.

Pitching Notes: Blue Jays, Allgeyer, Nats, Strasburg, Astros, Valdez, Odorizzi

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The Blue Jays have optioned Nick Allgeyer to Triple-A, per Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca (via Twitter). Allgeyer did not make an appearance and has yet to make his Major League debut. The Jays won’t make a corresponding move until tomorrow. There’s no need to fill his roster spot today given their day off. Since service time is measured in days and not games, there’s no reason to make a move any earlier than necessary. In other pitcher news…

  • The Nationals may be close to activating Stephen Strasburg, depending on how his shoulder feels today, per Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com (via Twitter). Nationals’ starters rank an uncharacteristic 25th in the Majors by fWAR, 16th with a 4.29 ERA and next-to-last with a 4.83 FIP. Strasburg has contributed just two starts totaling 10 innings on the year.
  • Framber Valdez and Jake Odorizzi will start on back-to-back days for the Sugar Land Skeeters this week, per Sports Director at Fox 26 Mark Berman (via Twitter). That’s especially good news considering that Jose Urquidy just landed on the injured list. Because of their schedule, however, Houston could largely get by with only four starters until June, writes the Athletic’s Jake Kaplan. If everyone can get healthy, the Astros will have a surplus of starters, which could lead to Cristian Javier or Luis Garcia being bumped to the bullpen or back to Triple-A, despite their solid efforts thus far.

Astros Notes: Minor Leaguers, Valdez, Urquidy

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The Astros are providing fully furnished apartments to all of their minor leaguers across all levels for the 2021 season, reports Britt Ghiroli of The Athletic. Housing for minor leaguers has been complicated due to Covid-19 regulations, as host families are not allowed this season and there are restrictions on how many players can live in a given apartment. Minor league salaries are generally scant enough that it’s common for several teammates to crowd into a one- or two-bedroom apartment in order to save on rent and cover other basic expenses. It’s a commitment we’ve not previously seen an organization make for its minor league talent, most of whom receive much smaller bonuses than the six- or even seven-figure numbers that frequent the top end of each summer’s draft. It’s not known whether this will be a permanent commitment from the ’Stros, nor is it clear whether other organizations might adopt a similar approach now or in the future.

More on the Astros…

  • Southpaw Framber Valdez got through a 25-pitch bullpen session unscathed on Friday and will start a Triple-A rehab assignment on Sunday, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com was among those to report. Valdez will throw three innings in that game. Expectations are that he’ll rejoin the Astros’ rotation in June, which Valdez called a “miracle.” After all, there was fear back in the spring that Valdez’s broken left ring finger would require surgery and prevent him from pitching this year. “It was a bad injury, a break to the finger,” said Valdez, who was able to avoid going under the knife. When the 27-year-old does come back, he’ll work to build on an impressive 2020 in which he turned in 70 2/3 innings of 3.57 ERA/3.23 SIERA ball with great strikeout (26.4), walk (5.6) and groundball (60.0) percentages.
  • Right-hander Jose Urquidy exited his start on Wednesday against the Angels in the fourth inning with shoulder discomfort, and it’s possible the issue will shelve him for a bit. Manager Dusty Baker told Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle and other reporters Friday that an MRI on Urquidy’s shoulder didn’t “show anything significant,” but said today (to FOX 26’s Mark Berman and others) that Urquidy will miss his next scheduled start on Tuesday.  Urquidy shut out the Angels over 3 2/3 innings, continuing a nice start to 2021 for the 26-year-old. He has totaled 44 2/3 frames across eight starts and recorded a 3.22 ERA (with a less shiny 4.56 SIERA) and an 18.6 percent strikeout rate against a terrific 5.1 percent walk rate.

Astros’ Framber Valdez Could Return In June

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Astros starter Framber Valdez could return to the team at some point in June, manager Dusty Baker told reporters (including Brian McTaggart of MLB.com) this afternoon. That’s the first timeline the organization has defined since the left-hander fractured his left ring finger on a comebacker during Spring Training.

In the initial aftermath of the injury, it was reported Valdez could require season-ending surgery. A second opinion suggested he may instead be able to rehab without surgery, and he’s continued to make progress since electing that course of action. In Valdez’s absence, Houston starters have managed a solid 3.82 ERA, albeit with a less impressive 4.17 SIERA that ranks eighteenth league-wide. Valdez figures to improve those numbers after tossing 70 2/3 innings of 3.57 ERA/3.23 SIERA ball last year. The 27-year-old posted strong strikeout and walk rates (26.4% and 5.6%, respectively) while inducing ground balls at a massive clip (60%).

Valdez’s injury spurred the Astros to sign Jake Odorizzi to a two-year, $23.5MM guarantee in mid-March. Unfortunately, the righty wound up on the injured list himself after just eight regular season innings, leaving his third start of the year early with forearm tightness. Odorizzi threw 40 pitches in a simulated game yesterday, though, and he’s soon to join Triple-A Sugar Land for a minor-league rehab assignment (McTaggart links).

Valdez and Odorizzi aren’t the only high-profile Astros starters on the injured list. Justin Verlander, who underwent Tommy John surgery last September, met with reporters this week and confirmed his rehab is on track (via McTaggart). Verlander conceded he was unlikely to return this season (no surprise, given the timing of his surgery and the procedure’s typical 13-16 month recovery timeline). However, the 38-year-old stressed he has no plans to retire, tweeting Friday he “(plans) on still pitching for a long time.” Verlander will be a free agent at the end of the year.

Injury Notes: Jays, Fried, Astros, Freeland

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A few health updates from around the game…

  • Center fielder George Springer’s Blue Jays debut is on hold yet again. As of Sunday, manager Charlie Montoyo was optimistic Springer would debut tonight, but that wasn’t the case. Springer is “not ready yet,” Montoyo said (Twitter links via Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet), though he did take batting practice and run the bases on Tuesday. Montoyo added that “[Springer] feels great except the running.” The former Astro has been trying to work back since suffering a right quad strain three weeks ago. In better news for the Blue Jays, ace Hyun Jin Ryu is recovering well from the right glute strain he incurred Sunday and shouldn’t miss a start, Nicholson-Smith relays.
  • The Braves are “likely” to activate left-hander Max Fried from the 10-day injured list next Tuesday or Wednesday, Mark Bowman of MLB.com tweets. If true, it’ll go down as roughly a three-week stay on the IL for Fried, who suffered a right hamstring strain during his most recent start on April 13. Once he returns, the 2020 NL Cy Young contender will try to rebound from a ghastly three-start, 11-inning stretch in which hitters victimized him for 15 runs (14 earned) on 23 hits and five walks.
  • Tuesday brought some positive and negative health-related developments for the Astros’ pitching staff. The good news: Southpaw Framber Valdez is making tremendous progress from a left ring finger injury and could rejoin their rotation sometime in June, Jake Kaplan of The Athletic relays. Valdez turned in a stellar performance in 2020, but he hasn’t gotten a chance to follow up on it this year. As for the bad news, righty reliever Pedro Baez has halted his throwing program on account of lingering shoulder soreness. The Astros transferred Baez from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Monday, meaning he won’t make his first appearance with the club until June 9 at the earliest. Houston signed the former Dodger to a two-year, $12.5MM guarantee over the winter.
  • Rockies lefty Kyle Freeland said Tuesday that he will “absolutely” pitch in the majors this season, per Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post (Twitter links). Freeland, a little over a month removed from suffering a strained pitching shoulder, had an “outstanding” bullpen session on Tuesday and could throw a sim game next week, according to manager Bud Black. However, there’s still no clear timetable for a potential 2021 debut for Freeland, who finished third on the Rockies in innings (70 2/3) and recorded a 4.33 ERA/4.95 SIERA with a 51.5 percent groundball rate last season.

AL Injury Notes: Astros, L. Bard, Ray, Pinder

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Astros southpaw Framber Valdez hasn’t pitched in the majors this season on account of a broken finger, though he did return to throwing from flat ground Thursday, per Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle. While general manager James Click called Thursday’s session a “tremendous step forward” for Valdez, there still isn’t a clear timetable for a potential 2021 debut. Valdez broke out last season with 70 2/3 innings of 3.57 ERA/3.23 SIERA ball, an elite 60 percent groundball rate, and terrific strikeout and walk percentages of 26.4 and 5.6, respectively.

More injury-related items from Houston and a couple of other American League teams…

  • Angels right-handed reliever Luke Bard will undergo season-ending hip surgery, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic was among those to report. He’ll need six to eight months to recover from the procedure. Bard was already set to miss a significant amount of time this season, as the Angels sent him to the 60-day injured list shortly before the campaign began. Although the 30-year-old’s high spin rate has made him a potential breakout candidate since he debuted with the Angels in 2018, he has only managed a 5.05 ERA through 66 innings – including 5 1/3 frames in 2020.
  • The Blue Jays hope lefty Robbie Ray will return to the rotation this week, according to Gregor Chisholm of the Toronto Star (via Twitter). The southpaw threw 63 pitches in a simulated game yesterday. The last hurdle to clear is just seeing how he feels over the next couple of days.
  • The Athletics placed infielder/outfielder Chad Pinder on the IL because of a left knee sprain, but it appears he’ll sit out for a lot longer than the 10-day minimum. Pinder is is week to week and not participating in any baseball activities, per Martin Gallegos of MLB.com. The 29-year-old opened the season as one of the Athletics’ main outfielders before going down, and they’ve since used Ka’ai Tom, Stephen Piscotty, Tony Kemp and Seth Brown in the corners to help fill the void.
  • Astros reliever Enoli Paredes left their game Thursday with a trainer, Rome tweets. The righty exited after throwing just three strikes out of 13 pitches and walking the only two batters he faced. Control has been a problem in all three appearances this year for Paredes, who has walked six hitters in 1 1/3 innings. Paredes also put up a below-average walk rate of 12.2 percent in his rookie year in 2020, but he still notched a 3.05 ERA (with a much less inspiring 4.63 SIERA) over 20 2/3 frames. [UPDATE: Paredes “did something to his side,” manager Dusty Baker said (via Rome). The Astros should know more Friday.]

Astros Notes: Odorizzi, Valdez, Baez, Scrubb, James

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Astros’ brass met with reporters (including Brian McTaggart of MLB.com and Jake Kaplan of the Athletic) in recent days and provided updates on a host of sidelined pitchers. Righty Jake Odorizzi will make his regular-season debut sometime during the team’s initial homestand, which runs from April 8-14. The Astros inked Odorizzi to a two-year, $23MM guarantee in free agency, but he’s behind the 8-ball after sitting on the open market until earlier this month.

The Odorizzi signing came on the heels of Framber Valdez’s fractured finger early in Spring Training. At the time, there had been fear the left-hander would require surgery and miss the entire season. Valdez is attempting to rehab the injury without going under the knife, and it seems the early returns are positive. Pitching coach Brent Strom called the latest reports on Valdez’s health “very, very exciting and very good,” although the Astros have yet to provide word on a potential target date for his return.

Houston is also without a few key relievers due to health situations. Righty Pedro Báez – like Odorizzi, one of Houston’s offseason additions – won’t be ready for major league action for at least the first couple weeks of the season. The team hopes he’ll be back on the mound in late April. Báez, whom the Astros signed to a two-year, $12.5MM guarantee, has been on the COVID-19 injured list for three weeks. Fellow right-hander Andre Scrubb is looking at a mid-April return after leaving a recent Cactus League game with shoulder soreness.

Another righty, Josh James, is targeting late May or early June for a return of his own. The 28-year-old underwent surgery to repair a labral tear in his left hip at the end of last October.  The procedure initially came with a six-to-eight month recovery timetable, so it seems James is right on schedule.

Latest On Framber Valdez

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MARCH 17: Surgery has not been recommended for Valdez, Jake Kaplan of The Athletic tweets. Valdez will head back to spring training to rehab, but there’s no timeline for a return to the mound.

MARCH 6: Framber Valdez has not yet given up on pitching in 2021. He is considering avoiding surgery and rehabbing his broken ring finger with an eye on returning later this season, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). Earlier reports suggested Valdez might miss the entire season after being recommended for surgery. Clearly, a final decision has yet to be made.

Despite the signing of Jake Odorizzi to a two-year deal, the Astros would, of course, welcome a healthy Valdez back into the fold. Still, that Houston felt the need to go out and finalize a deal for Odorizzi less than a week after the Valdez injury suggests they aren’t all that optimistic, writes Jake Kaplan of the Athletic. Even if Valdez returns, however, he’s likely to miss a decent chunk of time.

One of the breakout stars of the 2020 postseason, Valdez rode his signature curveball to a 1.88 ERA in four playoff appearances while striking out 29 percent of opponents. That effort built on a quieter but no less encouraging 3.57 ERA/2.85 FIP over 70 ⅔ innings during the regular season.

Surgery Recommended For Framber Valdez

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March 4: The initial recommendation for treatment of Valdez’s injury is surgery, tweets Heyman. The recovery time on the recommended operation would be sizable enough that there’s concern the left-hander could miss the entire season, Heyman adds.

That’d register as a surprise, although we don’t know the extent of the fracture at this point or whether the imaging performed after that initial announcement revealed any additional damage. The club is still seeking further opinions.

March 3, 12:10pm: Valdez has been diagnosed with a fractured left ring finger, general manager James Click announced to reporters (Twitter link via FOX 26’s Mark Berman). There’s no timetable for his return yet, as he’s slated for additional tests and imaging.

11:58am: Astros lefty Framber Valdez is dealing with a finger injury, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports. The amount of time he’s expected to miss isn’t clear, as he’s still being evaluated by doctors, but Heyman adds that it’s believed to be “serious” and is expected to keep him out of action for awhile. Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle tweets that Valdez took a Francisco Lindor grounder off the hand during yesterday’s outing, though he pitched another inning after doing so.

An absence of any length for Valdez would be a tough hit for the Astros, who are already unlikely to get much of anything from Justin Verlander in 2021 after he underwent Tommy John surgery last year. Valdez stepped up in Verlander’s absence and played a huge part in Houston’s playoff run, breaking out with 70 2/3 innings of 3.57 ERA ball over the course of 11 appearances. The 27-year-old completed at least seven innings on six occasions and completed six frames in nine of his 11 outings.

Fielding-independent metrics suggest that Valdez’s 2020 breakout was even better than reflected in his ERA. Valdez’s 60 percent ground-ball rate was one of the best in the game, and his 26.4 percent strikeout rate and 5.6 percent walk rate were both markedly better than the league average. The lefty’s 2.85 FIP and 3.23 SIERA both suggest that his 2020 success was far from a fluke.

For the Astros, Valdez is expected to slot into the rotation’s top three alongside Zack Greinke, Lance McCullers Jr., Jose Urquidy and Cristian Javier. It’s a solid-looking group thanks to surprise showings from both Valdez and Javier in 2020, but the depth beyond that quintet lacks big league experience and/or success. Their most experienced options, Josh James and Austin Pruitt, are both on the mend from surgery. James had hip surgery in late October, which came with a six to eight month recovery period. Pruitt had elbow surgery in September and, as of January, was not expected to be ready for Opening Day.

Righty Brandon Bielak was hit hard in 12 appearances last year (six starts, six relief outings), and righties Luis Garcia and Bryan Abreu both have fewer than 15 MLB frames under their belts. Garcia did get the ball in a playoff game, but that was largely out of necessity. Prior to 2020, he’d yet to even pitch in Double-A.

Meanwhile, Tyler Ivey and Nivaldo Rodriguez are both on the 40-man roster, but Ivey has yet to pitch in the big leagues and Rodriguez only tossed eight innings of relief in 2020. Prospect Forrest Whitley is also on the 40-man, and he’s still considered a Top 100 farmhand even if his stock has tumbled over the past two years. Former Red Sox swingman Hector Velazquez is in camp as a non-roster player, but the Astros historically haven’t brought in many veterans on non-guaranteed deals and that’s again the case in 2021.

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