Indians Still Discussing Potential Corey Kluber Trades
DEC. 22: The Dodgers remain in talks with the Indians regarding Kluber, Morosi reports. LA isn’t open to trading slugger Cody Bellinger for Kluber, though it’s “willing to discuss” young outfelder Alex Verdugo, per Morosi. Regardless, it’s unlikely a Kluber deal will come together with the Dodgers or anyone else prior to Christmas, Morosi tweets.
DEC. 19: The Indians are still holding discussions with rival organizations about star right-hander Corey Kluber, according to Jon Morosi of MLB.com (Twitter links). In particular, it seems the Reds are actively engaged with the Cleveland brass.
Needless to say, this isn’t the first we’ve heard of the Indians dangling a significant pitchers. Kluber and teammate Trevor Bauer have been in the rumor mill for much of the offseason.
Still, it’s significant to learn of ongoing talks, particularly since little has emerged on that front in the past weeks. The Indians’ strategy had been uncertain following a pair of contract-swapping moves — see here and here — that significantly reduced the team’s 2018 payroll. Easing the financial commitments, while staying ahead of an underwhelming pack in the AL Central, had been the seeming driving force behind the concept of dangling Kluber in the first place.
No doubt salary considerations will remain important, but the Indians surely have less pressure to pare costs. Parting with Kluber (or Bauer) will not be undertaken lightly. That explains the fact that, per Morosi, the Indians have asked about top Reds prospects Nick Senzel and Taylor Trammell in trade talks. Morosi himself had previously cast doubt on the possibility of a match between these clubs. The Reds, no doubt, are exceedingly hesitant to give up either of those two key young assets, though landing a controlled ace will necessarily sting.
A variety of other ballclubs remain engaged on Kluber, presumably. Morosi cites the Dodgers, Brewers, and Phillies as being “among the teams that have shown interest,” though it’s not clear whether that’s intended as an update on the current state of affairs or a glance back at the recent slate of rumors.
Reds Acquire Kemp, Puig & Wood From Dodgers For Homer Bailey, Prospects
The Dodgers and Reds have announced a long-rumored blockbuster that will shift around a variety of notable players. Veterans Matt Kemp, Yasiel Puig, and Alex Wood are all heading to Cincinnati, along with catcher/infielder Kyle Farmer and $7MM. Meanwhile, righty Homer Bailey is going to Los Angeles, accompanied by young righty Josiah Gray and infielder Jeter Downs.
Financial factors obviously weigh heavily here. Kemp is earning $21.5MM in the final year of his contract, while Bailey is earning $23MM — in addition to a $5MM buyout on his 2020 mutual option. Bailey, though, only represents a $17.5MM hit for luxury tax purposes, while Kemp is a $20MM CBT piece. The Dodgers’ cash and luxury tax savings are boosted yet further by moving Puig and Wood, though certainly both of those players are positive-value assets, even as they enter their final seasons of arbitration eligibility. MLBTR and contributor Matt Swartz project that Puig will earn $11.3MM while Wood will end up with a $9.0MM salary. Net it all out, and it seems that the Dodgers will take on $28MM in new obligations, plus the $7MM they’re covering of the old ones, while sending approximately $42MM to the Reds, who’ll end up taking on only ~$7MM in total new salary in the deal. In terms of the luxury tax, L.A. will trim its tabulation by around $16MM (as above, depending upon the final salaries for Wood and Puig), though obviously the actual tax savings will only be a percentage of that amount.*
Clearly, the Dodgers were willing to move on from a trio of useful, albeit expensive players in order to free up roster space and payroll flexibility while also picking up some worthwhile prospect assets. This is hardly the first deal of this kind from a Dodgers front office that is always working angles and contemplating large trade packages. Indeed, both Wood and Kemp came to the organization in other complex arrangements, the former as part of a 3-team, 13-player 2015 blockbuster and the latter in last winter’s tax-avoidance contract swap.
It’s hard not to look at this swap and think about what might be next for the Dodgers, who have now bumped two key corner outfield pieces from their ’19 plans. Clearly, the move opens the door to a potential run at Bryce Harper, though it hardly makes that anything approaching a certainty. Among other considerations, today’s move drops two of the club’s right-handed-hitting outfield pieces, moving lefties Alex Verdugo and Andrew Toles up the depth chart — for the time being, at least. Possibilities abound for the Dodgers, who’ll surely target both high-end assets and talented players who can function in more flexible roles as their winter continues to unfold.
On the Cincy side, the club certainly now has a better 2019 roster, though it’ll cost some near-term cash and (more importantly) some future value. Wood will slot into the rotation alongside the recently acquired Tanner Roark, who’s also a one-and-done asset. Puig and Kemp will presumably both enter the outfield mix along with left-handed hitters Scott Schebler and Jesse Winker.
Certainly, both Puig and Kemp will boost the Reds’ position-player unit. The former is a quality defender who has produced at about twenty percent above the league average rate at the plate over the past two years. In 444 plate appearances last year, he turned in a .267/.327/.494 slash with 23 long balls and 15 steals. Kemp cooled off after a momentous rebound to begin his second stint in Los Angeles, but still turned in 506 plate appearances of .290/.338/.481 hitting with 21 dingers over the course of the season. Kemp is likelier than Puig to function in more of a platoon role; in addition to his poorly regarded glovework, he’s about six years Puig’s senior at 34 years of age.
While Puig and Kemp are the best-known names in this deal, though, it’s certainly arguable that Wood was the key pick-up from the Reds’ perspective. The southpaw, who’ll soon turn 28, has steadily produced high-quality results ever since breaking into the bigs in 2013. Last year, he worked to a 3.68 ERA with 8.0 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 over 151 2/3 innings.
There’s good reason to think the Reds will get quality output from Wood. In over eight hundred total MLB frames, he carries a 3.29 ERA with a 3.36 FIP, 3.49 xFIP, and 3.66 SIERA. Though Wood has long been dogged by questions about his long-term health, given his decidedly unorthodox motion, he has topped 150 frames in four of the past five campaigns.
Farmer, meanwhile, hasn’t done much in limited MLB opportunities. But he has hit well in the upper minors in recent campaigns and will at least function as a cheap catching depth asset for the Reds.
All told, it’s plenty of bang for the seven million bucks the Reds are taking on here. It’s hard to imagine the team could have done more with that amount of cash. Of course, the return is mostly tied up in single-season assets, and picking up those near-term pieces will mean the sacrifice of some potential long-term value.
Downs was generally considered one of the ten best prospects on the Cincinnati farm, after all, with Gray not far behind him. Both players are top recent draft picks — Downs went 32nd overall in 2017; Gray was plucked in the second round in the 2018 draft — who have shown quite well in their first professional opportunities. Downs turned in a .257/.351/.402 slash with 13 home runs and 37 steals over 524 plate appearances last year at the Class A level, while Gray threw 52 1/3 innings of 2.58 ERA ball, with 10.1 K/9 against 2.9 BB/9, in a dozen Rookie ball starts.
Bailey, meanwhile, is slated to function only as a vehicle for the rest of this deal. He’ll be cut loose by the Dodgers, president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman confirms. Indeed, that seems to have been the reason he elected to waive his full no-trade rights. Bailey, who signed a big extension before the 2014 season that just did not work out for the Reds, has struggled since returning from a long bout with arm injuries. Presumably, he’ll be looking for a chance to compete in camp for a job with another organization.
Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (Twitter links) first reported that the deal was nearing finalization and had the key pieces. Bob Nightengale of USA Today added the prospects on Twitter. C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic (on Twitter), Jon Heyman of Fancred (via Twitter), and Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter) covered the remaining details.
*An earlier version of this post mistakenly tabulated the salaries to suggest the Dodgers were receiving, rather than sending, $7MM to the Reds. We regret the mistake.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Dodgers Sign Joe Kelly
1:27pm: MLBTR has confirmed that the contract breaks down as follows: $1MM signing bonus, $3MM salary in 2019, $8.5MM salary in 2020, $8.5MM salary in 2021 and a $4MM buyout on a $12MM option for the 2022 season. In total, the contract guarantees Kelly $25MM.
Dec. 21, 12:45pm: The Dodgers have formally announced the signing. They’ll need to make a corresponding 40-man roster move, though they’ve yet to announce what that will be.
Dec. 13: The Dodgers and free agent righty Joe Kelly are close to an agreement, according to Ken Rosenthal and Robert Murray of The Athletic (Twitter link). Kelly is set to receive a three-year deal worth around $25MM, as per Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan (via Twitter). Kelly is represented by ACES.
The Dodgers received an up-close (and, at the time, unwelcome) look at Kelly’s ability during the World Series, when he tossed six shutout innings over five appearances to help Boston capture the championship. His work in the Fall Classic capped off an outstanding postseason for Kelly, who allowed just one earned run over 11 1/3 IP against the Dodgers, Astros, and Yankees.
If last October represented Kelly at his best, the righty hasn’t always been able to consistently deliver on that potential throughout his career. Kelly posted a 4.39 ERA, 9.3 K/9, and 2.13 K/BB rate over 65 2/3 innings in the regular season, and has had some issues avoiding walks over the last three seasons (4.6 BB/9 since 2016). His 9.2 K/9 over that same stretch is nothing to sneeze at, of course, though it still seems somewhat of an underwhelming total given the pure electricity in Kelly’s arm. He averaged 98.1 mph on his fastball last season, dropping just slightly from a 99 mph average in 2017.
Kelly is likely to fit into the setup role in the Dodgers’ bullpen, handling the eighth inning to set up closer Kenley Jansen. Given the amount of flexibility and potential starting arms that could see time in the pen, however, it also wouldn’t be surprising to see Kelly brought into higher-leverage situations earlier in games.
Between Kelly joining the Dodgers and Jeurys Familia going to the Mets, we’re beginning to see some of the offseason’s top free agent setup men come off the board. MLBTR ranked Kelly 25th on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agent, projecting him to land three years and $27MM (though we had the Anaheim native going to his hometown Angels, rather than the Los Angeles area’s other team).
Market Notes: Ross, Harper, Phillies, Realmuto, Minor
Long-time backstop David Ross has agreed to a new, multi-year deal to continue working as an analyst with ESPN. That news would seem to eliminate him from contention as a possible Cubs bench coach target, which is no surprise given recent indications. It would also appear to suggest that Ross won’t be looking to move into a dugout in the near future, though he’ll no doubt remain a popular candidate for significant gigs every time there’s an opening.
Let’s check in on the latest market notes …
- The Dodgers‘ interest in star free agent Bryce Harper remains a storyline to watch. The Los Angeles club doesn’t seem inclined to tantalize Harper with a record-setting overall guarantee, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic suggests (subscription link). Rather, the club would be more interested in a shorter-term pact with a “high” average annual value and multiple opt-out clauses along the way. ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez heard largely the same late last week, while adding a few intriguing additional details. Harper “badly wants to be a Dodger,” says Gonzalez, but would have to sacrifice years and dollars in order to make that dream a reality. That also meshes with a recent report from ESPN’s Buster Olney, wherein Olney suggested that a front-loaded deal with a huge annual value could be the most appealing scenario to Los Angeles. Details are understandably sparse at this point, but generally, it stands to reason that if Harper and agent Scott Boras were to consider anything shy of a record-setting contract in terms of overall value and/or length, they’d likely need to establish a new high-water mark in terms of AAV by a considerable margin. That doesn’t seem like something that Harper’s camp would consider until a ways down the line, however, as Boras & Co. are quite likely still locked in on a longer-term mega-deal. The timeline for Harper’s signing remains unclear at the moment.
- Harper and Manny Machado will continue to fascinate until they sign, but with both still holding in-person meetings it could take a while for that to come together. What that may mean for the Phillies is worth pondering, as the organization has its sights set on significant improvements in multiple areas. Club president Andy MacPhail says there’s still ongoing interest in both stars, but also notes “there are a lot of different ways to improve,” as MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki writes. Citing a need to “give yourself enough latitude to deal with each offseason as it comes,” MacPhail certainly struck a somewhat different tone than owner John Middleton did recently. In part, he sought to emphasize the more restrained elements of Middleton’s comments — particularly, those indicating that the club does not feel it must land Harper and/or Machado to have had a productive offseason.
- The Astros are “back in the mix” for Marlins star J.T. Realmuto, per MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro (via Twitter). It’s fair to wonder whether the Houston club was ever really fully out of the hunt. The club did add Robinson Chirinos and still has Max Stassi on hand, but that combination surely isn’t sufficient to sap the ‘Stros’ interest in the top catcher in the game. Perhaps it’s not out of the question that the club would consider carrying three catchers if they swing a blockbuster, with Realmuto perhaps representing an option in the DH/first base mix and Chirinos also providing a potent bench bat against left-handed pitching (.258/.353/.485 career slash). Whatever the plan would be, the Astros first need to land Realmuto. As Frisaro hints, the club’s reported deal with Michael Brantley could be seen as an indication that top prospect Kyle Tucker — who’d surely be of keen interest to the Fish — might just be available. Of course, as Frisaro also notes, a variety of other teams remain in pursuit of Realmuto at this stage.
- The Brewers nearly struck a deal with the Rangers for Mike Minor, Rosenthal further reports (subscription link), though it’s largely unclear what shape such an agreement would have taken and whether talks are still open. For Milwaukee, the connection makes clear that boosting the pitching mix remains a goal of the offseason. The organization has quite a few solid pieces in place, many of which could be utilized as needed in the rotation, in the bullpen, or as minor-league depth. Minor would certainly fit that general mold, as he has shown the ability to function as a high-quality reliever or solid back-of-the-rotation starter in recent years. It’s notable that the Texas org seems to be batting around multiple trade scenarios on the lefty, even in a winter in which they have taken further risks on other veteran hurlers.
Quick Hits: Kikuchi, Grandal, Dodgers, Angels, Mets, Puig
Yusei Kikuchi is on his way to Los Angeles to begin his meetings with prospective MLB teams. The Japanese southpaw told Sports Nippon (hat tip to Dylan Hernandez of the L.A. Times) that he hasn’t received any official offers from Major League teams, and he didn’t give away any hints about preferred decisions — Kikuchi only answered “of course” when asked if he was open to joining any of the 30 big league clubs. The 30-day posting window for teams to negotiate with Kikuchi opened on December 4, and representatives from a wide array of teams are expected to make their pitches to Kikuchi in L.A.
More from around the baseball world….
- The Dodgers are open to re-signing Yasmani Grandal, though on a one-year contract, MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi reports. Los Angeles is hesitant about adding any new catcher on a longer-term deal, as catching prospects Keibert Ruiz and Will D. Smith are both approaching readiness for the majors. To that end, the Dodgers only had interest in Wilson Ramos on a one-year contract, though they have been heavily linked to J.T. Realmuto (who is controlled through 2020) in trade talks. Morosi figures that the Dodgers could consider moving pitching prospect Dustin May and one of Ruiz or Smith in any potential Realmuto trade package, though that wouldn’t be enough to meet the Marlins’ large asking price. “The Dodgers were balking at the inclusion of at least one key player on whom the Marlins were insisting,” Morosi writes.
- After signing Justin Bour, Angels GM Billy Eppler told reporters (including the Orange County Register’s Jeff Fletcher) that the team isn’t yet sure how the first base/DH playing time will be split up between Bour, Shohei Ohtani, and Albert Pujols. Ohtani will miss at least some time at the start of the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, and will only be a designated hitter when he does return. Pujols, meanwhile, underwent surgeries on both his knee and elbow last year, leaving it unclear how often the veteran slugger will be able to play first base. “It’s difficult to forecast and we can’t accurately forecast plate appearances for either of those guys [Ohtani and Pujols]. What’s important is to approach those organically and see what the medical team says as we enter spring training, and see what we can do,” Eppler said.
- The Mets have A.J. Pollock and “a couple [of] mystery options” on their list of center field targets, Fancred Sports’ Jon Heyman tweets. Given how aggressive Brodie Van Wagenen has been in his first six weeks as the Mets’ general manager, any number of free agent or trade possibilities could be on the radar. Pollock would almost surely be one of the pricier options available, as his next contract is likely to cost more by himself than the $49MM in free agent dollars the Mets just spent to land Jeurys Familia and Wilson Ramos.
- Yasiel Puig in a Giants uniform? The idea isn’t as outlandish as it sounds, as Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle notes that new Giants GM Farhan Zaidi is “is open to dealing with his old team,” the Dodgers. While it’s quite common for a new general manager to explore players from his former job, the arch-rival Giants and Dodgers have only completed three trades with each other since 1953. Perhaps for this reason, there haven’t been any whispers about the Giants targeting Puig, though there is something of a fit on paper. San Francisco is looking for corner outfielders while Los Angeles is looking to clear payroll and perhaps a spot in their outfield for a larger target, and Puig has been specifically mentioned as a potential trade chip.
Reaction & Analysis: The Wilson Ramos Signing
The Mets’ busy offseason continued today with the news that the team has agreed with free agent catcher Wilson Ramos on a two-year, $19MM contract that contains a club option for the 2021 season. Here is some of the early reaction to the deal, and its ripple effect on the rest of the catching market…
- After speaking with Ramos and his camp during the Winter Meetings, the Mets came away “extremely impressed” by the catcher, according to SNY.tv’s Andy Martino (Twitter links). It also didn’t hurt that Ramos was seeking a lesser contract than Yasmani Grandal, who is looking for a four-year deal. Kevin Plawecki may now be the odd man out of New York’s catching mix, as Martino hears that the Mets are currently planning to use Travis d’Arnaud for the backup job behind Ramos, and Plawecki could now be a trade chip.
- The Mets were heavily involved in trade talks for J.T. Realmuto, though ultimately didn’t want to surrender “significant talent off the Major League roster” in a deal, Martino tweets. Names like Amed Rosario, Brandon Nimmo, and Michael Conforto had all been mentioned as possible targets for the Marlins, though Miami’s desire to land more than one of these players seems to have ultimately been the Mets’ breaking point in talks. Martino also mentions that the Mets, Marlins, and Padres had some talks about a three-team deal that would’ve involved both Realmuto and Noah Syndergaard, with those negotiations lasting “up until the end of winter meetings and perhaps beyond.”
- Joel Sherman of the New York Post likes the Ramos signing, calling it “the right move” for the Mets rather than trade young players for someone like Realmuto. The Mets can now keep Nimmo and company as potential trade chips for midseason additions, if such move are necessary. If the Mets don’t end up contending, Sherman points out that Ramos himself could potentially be dealt at the deadline, as his contract doesn’t represent a long-term hit for either the Mets or any possible trade suitor.
- According to Heyman, the Mets were Ramos’ first choice this winter. The Dodgers also had interest, though only on a one-year contract, Jorge Castillo of the L.A. Times tweets. The Rays and Phillies, Ramos’ most recent teams, didn’t strongly pursue a reunion, Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan reports. Philadelphia has youngster Jorge Alfaro, of course, while Tampa Bay made another addition behind the plate in acquiring Mike Zunino from the Mariners.
- Zunino’s presence hasn’t kept the Rays from being involved in the Realmuto market, however, as MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro writes (Twitter link) that Tampa and the Dodgers are two of the teams still in the hunt for Miami’s All-Star catcher. The Marlins continue to feel, however, that “they don’t have to do anything” in regards to a Realmuto trade, and could still end up keeping the catcher. “This week will be telling if a trade is made or not,” Frisaro writes.
NL Notes: Reds, Giants, Marlins, J. Kelly
On the heels of their fifth straight sub-.500 campaign, the Reds entered the offseason planning to post a higher payroll in 2019 than in years past. That remains the case, according to president Dick Williams, who said (via John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer) that “payroll will be up to levels we haven’t had before. We still have money to spend.” Williams’ comments imply the Reds will outdo their franchise-record Opening Day payroll from 2015, when they ran up a $115MM-plus tab, and Fay suggests they could ultimately climb toward the $130MM range. Moreover, even after acquiring righty Tanner Roark from the Nationals this week, the Reds remain “very engaged with multiple clubs” and are “talking trades with multiple clubs,” Williams added. Regardless of whether further upgrades come via trades, free agency or both, Cincinnati should still have enough money left to pick up an outfielder and find another starter to join Roark & Co. in its rotation, Fay posits.
Here’s more from the National League:
- The Giants have been speculative suitors for outfielder Bryce Harper, arguably the preeminent player on the open market, but they aren’t “currently involved in discussions with most high-profile free agents,” Kerry Crowley of the Bay Area News Group writes. Rather, in an effort to maintain payroll flexibility in 2020 and beyond, the Giants seem to be focusing on free agents who are likely to collect short-term contracts.
- Trading catcher J.T. Realmuto would leave a gaping hole behind the plate for the Marlins, who wouldn’t be able to adequately replace him this offseason. But if the Marlins do go the expected route and part with Realmuto, they may add a veteran backstop to work with their young pitching staff, Joe Frisaro of MLB.com relays. President Michael Hill acknowledged the team’s desire for an experienced catcher, saying “a person who is going to take care of your pitchers as you continue to build” could help those hurlers “turn into the championship pieces you think they can be.” Miami could acquire Realmuto’s replacement in its forthcoming trade for him, though that’s not a must, Frisaro notes. Aside from Realmuto, the only other catcher on the Marlins’ 40-man roster is Chad Wallach, who has all of 21 MLB games under his belt. The lone somewhat battle-tested backup in the organization is Bryan Holaday, a recent minor league signee who has achieved minimal success across 606 trips to the plate in the majors.
- Before he agreed to a three-year, $25MM contract with the Dodgers this week, hard-throwing reliever Joe Kelly drew interest from half the league (15 teams), according to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. Kelly revealed that the Dodgers were the first club to extend him a three-year offer.
Trade Candidate Faceoff: Yasiel Puig Vs. Nicholas Castellanos
For at least the past year, a pair of right fielders – the Dodgers’ Yasiel Puig and the Tigers’ Nicholas Castellanos – have been among the majors’ biggest potential trade chips. Neither player has gone anywhere to this point, but it now looks like only a matter of time before both Puig and Castellanos don new uniforms.
During this week’s Winter Meetings, reports surfaced indicating the Dodgers are “actively” attempting to trade Puig and the Tigers are “determined” to ship out Castellanos. As of now, Puig and Castellanos haven’t been connected to the same teams in the rumor mill, but it stands to reason they’d have similar suitors. Los Angeles may even replace Puig with Castellanos, who would likely offer analogous on-field value and perhaps cause fewer behind-the-scenes headaches.
A native of Cuba, Puig signed with the Dodgers to great fanfare in 2012 and made a dazzling debut the next season, when he was as captivating as he was productive. The early version of Puig – the one who often inspired awe at the plate, in the field and on the bases – was not only a perfect fit for Hollywood, but he was also among the majors’ elite players. From 2013-14, Puig’s first two seasons, only Mike Trout, Miguel Cabrera, Andrew McCutchen and Paul Goldschmidt finished ahead of him in wRC+ (153). Meanwhile, just those four and 10 other position players outdid Puig in fWAR (9.5), despite the fact that he accrued fewer plate appearances than everyone near the top of the leaderboard.
Had Puig continued to produce at anything resembling the blistering pace of his first two seasons, it’s possible the Dodgers may have worked to extend him by now. Instead, the 28-year-old’s numbers nosedived after his second season, and his relationship with the Dodgers has soured along the way. Thanks in part to those factors, Puig’s entering his last year of team control, and it seems like a strong possibility that he has taken his final at-bat with the championship-contending Dodgers.
There haven’t been any reports of problems between Castellanos and the Tigers, on the other hand. Nevertheless, as a team in a rebuild, Detroit’s positioned to bid goodbye to Castellanos – whom it chose in the first round of the 2010 draft. Like Puig, the soon-to-be 27-year-old Castellanos is entering his final season of control, and the two players are projected to earn matching $11.3MM salaries in 2019. The similarities continue in the form of their respective outputs dating back to 2016, Castellanos’ breakout season.
Since Castellanos finally began living up to the billing he had as a prospect, he has accumulated 1,790 PAs and 7.0 fWAR on the strength of a .285/.336/.495 batting line – good for a healthy 121 wRC+. During the same period, Puig totaled far fewer PAs (1,382) but still managed 5.8 fWAR, thanks largely to a .264/.334/.470 slash and a 115 wRC+. Puig also swiped 35 bases, easily trumping Castellanos’ seven, and destroyed his fellow trade candidate in the field. From 2016-18, only nine outfielders piled up more Defensive Runs Saved than Puig’s 29. Meanwhile, Castellanos has struggled to find a position – he was a butcher at third base from 2016-17 and also fared poorly in the outfield last season. Consequently, Castellanos’ future may be at first base or designated hitter.
Aside from their dissimilarities in the field and on the bases, the two right-handed hitters have also provided their offensive production in different ways. Castellanos tortured left-handers from 2017-18 – a 308-PA sample in which he slashed .338/.386/.585 (159 wRC+) – whereas Puig was borderline unplayable versus southpaws in the same span. Although Puig was a formidable presence against lefties earlier in his career, they held him to a feeble .197/.292/.320 line and a horrid 66 wRC+ over the previous two seasons and 259 PAs. As a result, the Dodgers limited his playing time when a righty wasn’t on the hill last season, reportedly leading to discontentment from Puig and an open-minded attitude toward a trade.
Both Puig and Castellanos may well have new homes come 2019, potentially joining the top free-agent corner outfielders – Bryce Harper, Michael Brantley and McCutchen – in that regard. McCutchen’s already off the board, and for teams that aren’t in position to ink Harper to a record contract or hand Brantley a lucrative multiyear payday, Puig and Castellanos could represent appealing alternatives. The question is: Which player would you rather have?
(poll link for app users)
Which trade candidate do you prefer?
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Nicholas Castellanos 59% (7,492)
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Yasiel Puig 41% (5,282)
Total votes: 12,774
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Latest On Realmuto: Narrowed Market, 3-Team Possibilities With Mets/Padres
DEC. 15: Atlanta hasn’t discussed Realmuto with the Marlins in the past five days, and the Braves don’t plan on picking up talks again, Mark Bowman of MLB.com tweets. That runs counter to a prior report suggesting the Braves are at the head of the race for Realmuto.
DEC. 13: The Marlins have made some progress in winnowing the field for backstop J.T. Realmuto, per Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald (via Twitter). Still, though, six teams remain involved, per the report: the Reds, Mets, Rays, Braves, Dodgers, and Padres.
Certainly, the Mets have been the most visibly aggressive organization to this stage. The New York club has created quite a few off-the-wall possibilities along the way, some of which involve other teams. That makes it relatively unsurprising to hear that they’ve cycled back to prior talks with the Padres regarding Noah Syndergaard in a possible three-team deal, per SNY.tv’s Andy Martino (Twitter link).
Previously, the Mets reportedly danced around possible deals along these same lines with the Yankees. Also, earlier in the winter, the Mets and Pads were unable to line up on a two-team arrangement that would have sent Syndergaard out west, with the San Diego organization unwilling to part with top prospect Fernando Tatis Jr. It seems quite unlikely that Tatis is now available, so presumably other pieces from a loaded Padres farm would be utilized.
While the Mets are obviously pushing to win in the near-term, the Marlins would certainly have the ability to be a bit more patient with pre-MLB assets. For the Padres, meanwhile, Syndergaard would obviously represent a much-sought-after staff ace. Importantly, too, he’d be under team control for three seasons at an affordable rate of pay.
It’s hard to gauge the likelihood of a deal coming together between this trio of teams, though, particularly with so many other previous scenarios falling apart and other organizations still involved. Presumably, the Marlins remain emboldened to continue holding Realmuto while waiting for a rival to jump at their reportedly high asking prices.
For now, the stalemate continues, though there’s obviously still quite a bit of movement afoot. As Marlins president of baseball ops Michael Hill puts it to Wells Dusenbury of the Sun-Sentinel (via Twitter), “anything can gain traction at any moment.” For the Mets, meanwhile, there continue to be ongoing reports that the team has interest in quite a few other backstops, and it’s at least questionable whether it’d be sensible to prioritize Realmuto if it means losing Syndergaard.
NL Rumors & Notes: Brewers, Lowrie, Nats, Giants, Pillar, Kelly
Following last month’s non-tender of Jonathan Schoop, the Brewers’ exhaustive, months-long search for a second baseman continues with the team’s pursuit of Jed Lowrie, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Lowrie, of course, is fresh off an outstanding, 4.9 fWAR 2018 season with Oakland, itself on the back almost identical offensive campaign (119 wRC+ in ’17, 122 in ’18) the year before. MLBTR projects the 34-year-old to earn a solid 3-year, $30MM deal this offseason, though Lowrie’s camp, given his recent two-year output, will surely be fighting for more. The risk with the switch-hitter lies in his subpar performance across multiple seasons (2011, ’14, ’15, and ’16), in obvious addition to his age and former propensity for the serious injury, plus the tendency of second basemen to decline earlier than most, but there could be surplus value aplenty to be found if he continues on his current trajectory.
In other news from around the NL …
- The Nationals, another team with a hole at the keystone, offered Ian Kinsler a one-year deal before the 36-year-old signed a two-year pact with San Diego, per Rosenthal. Earlier this week, the club was said to have “checked-in” with free agent second-sacker D.J. LeMahieu, who would likely command a deal in excess length to the one offered to Kinsler, so it seems unclear as to exactly which direction the club will go in terms of filling the position. Carter Kieboom, a 21-year-old middle-infield prospect, has raked in the low levels of the minors and may just be a season and a half or so away, so perhaps the club is seeking just a one- or two-year stopgap in the interim.
- Per Alex Pavlovic of NBA Bay Area, the outfield-naked Giants are interested in Blue Jays CF Kevin Pillar. The club, who in years past has shown little interest in staking a defense-first player at the position, despite its park’s huge territory in right-center field, may be undergoing a philosophical about-face under its new, analytics-driven regime. The club, of course, is stacked with right-handed fly-ball types in the rotation, and would seem to benefit in large measure from a ball-hawking center-fielder like Pillar. The 29-year-old’s defensive metrics took a bit of a hit last season, but his peak from ’15-’17 (50 DRS) has rarely been matched in recent times. 25-year-old Steven Duggar would seem, at least in part, to fit the bill, but whether or not his bat will play – Steamer projects an 81 wRC+ for ’19 – is still an open question.
- New Dodgers reliever Joe Kelly, who this week agreed to a 3-year, $25MM with the team, explained (audio version) to WEEI’s Rob Bradford why he chose LA, noting that the team was the first to extend its offer to three years. Though the duration may come as little surprise, it is notable that it came from the Dodgers, who in recent times (Kenley Jansen excluded) have preferred their relievers to be of the under-the-radar variety.