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Dodgers To Meet With Justin Verlander Today

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The Dodgers are reportedly meeting with free agent Justin Verlander today, according to Jon Heyman of The New York Post.

The fit between Verlander and the Dodgers makes sense for a number of reasons. Despite being among the game’s biggest spenders, the Dodgers tend to prefer shorter-term contracts as opposed to lengthy commitments. The last time they gave a starting pitcher a guarantee longer than three years was to Brandon McCarthy going into 2015. Verlander turns 40 in February and will be limited in how many years he can reasonably ask for this offseason.

Verlander’s free agency has often been compared to that of Max Scherzer, another pitcher who has remained effective as an ace-level hurler into the age when many others begin to decline. Scherzer signed with the Mets a year ago for $130MM over three years, an average annual value of $43.33MM. MLBTR predicted Verlander to come in just under that, $120MM over three years, AAV of $40MM. Verlander is coming off an excellent platform season, winning the AL Cy Young after throwing 175 innings with a 1.75 ERA. However, Scherzer was going into his age-37 season when his deal was signed and will turn 40 just as it winds down, though he can also opt out after the second year. In Verlander’s case, he’s going to be 40 when his next deal begins.

Regardless, Verlander showed in 2022 that he’s still one of the best pitchers in the game, which is something the Dodgers could use. Walker Buehler required Tommy John surgery in August and will miss most of 2023, perhaps even all of it. The club also lost Andrew Heaney and Tyler Anderson to free agency, with Anderson having already inked a new deal with the Angels.

The Dodgers have reportedly agreed to bring Clayton Kershaw back for another year, who will join Julio Urías, Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May in the front four spots of the rotation. That’s a solid group in terms of talent but there are still concerns. Kershaw is still excellent when healthy but regularly deals with injuries, having not reached 130 innings in a season since 2019. Gonsolin had an excellent breakout in 2022 but dealt with a forearm strain down the stretch. May just returned from Tommy John but only made six starts this year. Despite debuting in 2019, he only has 25 career starts under his belt so far. Urías has been great in the past three seasons but he’s a free agent after 2023.

There are some intriguing in-house options for the fifth spot in the rotation, such as Ryan Pepiot, Michael Grove, Andre Jackson, Bobby Miller and Gavin Stone. However, the latter two haven’t cracked the 40-man roster yet and the others still have limited experience and minor league options. Adding another starter would improve the big league club while allowing those guys to head to the minors and battle each other for who gets the call when an injury creates an opening.

Verlander has been with the Astros since a deadline deal in 2017 and seemed a candidate to return on the heels of their World Series victory here in 2022. However, recent reporting has suggested that owner Jim Crane, who is temporarily running the show after parting ways with general manager James Click, isn’t interested in giving Verlander the three-year deal he’s looking for. Even without Verlander, Houston would have a really strong rotation mix consisting of Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Lance McCullers Jr., Luis Garcia, José Urquidy and Hunter Brown. Since that reporting, Verlander has been connected to the Mets and the Yankees, with the Dodgers now entering the fray.

In terms of the money, the Dodgers have plenty of room relative to their recent spending. Roster Resource calculates their current payroll to be around $152MM with a competitive balance tax number of $168MM. Their Opening Day payroll was $280MM in 2022, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, and the first CBT threshold is moving up to $233MM in 2023. In both cases, the Dodgers have plenty of room to work with, even if they add around $40MM by bringing Verlander aboard. The club will have other needs to address, particularly replacing Trea Turner at shortstop. However, recent reporting has suggested the club might steer clear of the big free agents and let Gavin Lux or a trade acquisition take over at that position. If that is indeed the case, perhaps their biggest spending will go towards the rotation this winter, having also been connected to Carlos Rodón recently. Though they also appear to be hanging around the Aaron Judge sweepstakes.

Marlins To Hire Brant Brown As Hitting Coach

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The Marlins have hired Brant Brown as their new hitting coach, as per SportsGrid’s Craig Mish (Twitter link).  Brown was one of the Dodgers’ two hitting coaches, and The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (via Twitter) reported earlier today that Miami was looking at Brown as the newest member of its staff.

Under new manager Skip Schumaker, the Marlins’ coaching staff will naturally look quite different in 2023.  Brown replaces Marcus Thames (who was hired by the Angels) in the hitting coach position, while Luis Urueta is the new bench coach, Jon Jay is the new first base coach, Jody Reed is the new third base coach, and Rod Barajas is joining the staff as a quality assurance coach.  Pitching coach Mel Stottlemyre Jr. is staying put, after signing a new multi-year deal back in October.

This isn’t Brown’s first time in a Marlins uniform, as he played 41 games for the Fish back in 2000.  Brown played at the MLB level with the Marlins, Pirates, and (mostly) Cubs over five seasons, and then began his coaching career in 2007.  After a decade as a coach in the Rangers’ and Mariners’ farm system, Brown’s first MLB coaching assignment came prior to the 2018 season, when he joined the Dodgers as an assistant hitting coach.  While some of the specifics of Brown’s title have changed, he and Robert Van Scoyoc have shared the hitting coach duties since 2019.

A powerful and versatile lineup has been one of the keys to the Dodgers’ recent success, but the 51-year-old Brown will now face a new challenge in trying to jumpstart Miami’s lineup.  The Marlins have one of baseball’s more enviable cores of young pitching, yet the team has been unable to pair that pitching with even average offense.  The additions of Jorge Soler, Avisail Garcia, Jacob Stallings, and Joey Wendle last offseason didn’t help matters, and the Marlins are now hoping to have more of a focus on speed and contact hitting heading into 2023.

It remains to be seen how the Dodgers will replace Brown on the coaching staff, but Rosenthal cites assistant coach Aaron Bates as a logical candidate for a promotion, if L.A. sticks to the dual-hitting coach approach.  Bates has been the Dodgers’ assistant hitting coach for the last four seasons, and previously worked as a coach and coordinator from 2015-18 in the Dodgers’ minor league system.

Dodgers Have Interest In Xander Bogaerts, Alex Reyes

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The Dodgers have joined the growing list of suitors for four-time All-Star and two-time World Series Champion Xander Bogaerts, according to reporter Marino Pepén. Pepén adds that the Cubs and Twins have also joined Bogaerts’ market, adding to a list that also houses the Phillies, Red Sox, and Padres.

With the departure of Trea Turner, the Dodgers are among the teams looking to secure a shortstop this winter, having recently been connected to the Brewers’ Willy Adames. MLBTR predicted that Bogaerts will receive a seven-year, $189MM deal this offseason.

The 30-year-old hit a strong .307/.377/.456 in 2022, witnessing a noticeable drop in power compared to 2021 (23 HRs, .493 slugging in 2021; 15 HRS, .456 slugging in 2022). Nevertheless, Bogaerts posted his fifth-straight season with a wRC+ over 125 and kept his strikeout rate below 19% for the eighth season in a row. Additionally, the nine-year vet posted his strongest defensive season of his career by measure of every publicly available metric (4 Defensive Runs Saved, 4.9 Ultimate Zone Rating, 5 Outs Above Average). Bogaerts’ glove had been discussed as his primary flaw, having been rated as a below-average defender and a candidate for an eventual position change. His strong defensive 2022 season will likely aid his ability to remain at the premium shortstop position, positioning him for a contract near $200MM.

From a financial standpoint, Bogaerts, along with Dansby Swanson, represent cheaper alternatives to Carlos Correa and Turner (both projected to sign contracts worth more than $250MM by MLBTR). Nevertheless, with the recent non-tendering of Cody Bellinger and the decision to decline Justin Turner’s 2023 club option, the Dodgers currently have only $152MM committed to their 2023 payroll, per RosterResource (after finishing the 2022 season with more than $260MM on their books). A Dodgers/Bogaerts deal would push the team up to $179MM — leaving ample room for another potential blockbuster signing.

The Dodgers have also been linked to free agent reliever Alex Reyes, per Juan Toribio of MLB.com. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had projected the two-time All-Star to receive $2.85MM in his penultimate trip through the arbitration process, but the Cardinals opted to non-tender the flamethrower.

Reyes, who was once ranked as one of the best prospects in all of baseball, has dealt with ailments his entire career. He underwent Tommy John surgery in 2017, tore a tendon in his lat in 2018, and underwent shoulder surgery in 2020. After a healthy 2021 season where Reyes earned All-Star honors while pitching to a 3.24 ERA in 72 1/3 innings with a robust 30.0% strikeout rate, albeit with an extremely high 16.4% walk rate, injuries returned. Reyes would be forced to undergo season-ending shoulder surgery in May, wiping out his entire 2022 season.

Despite Reyes having an unclear timetable to return, the Dodgers have earned a reputation for signing injured relievers to multi-year contracts, with the expectation that the player will perform in the later years of the deal. Additionally, Dodgers’ pitching coach Mark Prior has been highly regarded in recent years for his work, with Los Angeles’ bullpen pitching to the second-lowest ERA (2.87), fourth-highest strikeout percentage (26.7%), and second-lowest walk percentage (7.5%) in the entire league.

Dodgers “Have Shown Interest” In Willy Adames

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The Dodgers “have shown interest” in Brewers shortstop Willy Adames, MLB.com’s Juan Toribio reports.  The depth of the interest isn’t known, though it does reflect how Los Angeles is keeping tabs on the shortstop market beyond incumbent free agent Trea Turner.

Of course, there also isn’t any guarantee that the Brewers are even open to trading Adames, given how the club has had at least some interest in retaining the slugger on a long-term extension.  However, such an extension would be quite costly for the Brew Crew, and for a lower-payroll team, trading Adames for a bounty of younger players might be a more efficient way for Milwaukee to reload its roster.  The Dodgers have one of the sport’s better farm system, and could offer the Brewers some prospects who could contribute at the MLB level as early as 2023.

Adames has two years of arbitration control remaining, and he is projected to earn $9.2MM in 2023.  Another good season would push his 2024 price tag up into the $13MM range, unless an extension was worked out to overwrite what Adames might earn in his final arb-eligible year.  Since Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff are also going to be free agents after the 2024 campaign, it seems likely that the Brewers will be moving at least one of Burnes, Woodruff or Adames before they hit the open market, barring a huge change to their spending approach.

In fact, the Brewers have already increased spending in recent years, as their Opening Day payroll of just under $132MM was the largest in club history.  However, with Christian Yelich’s salary taking up a big chunk of that payroll, the Brewers have largely stuck to their usual tactic of moving on from certain players once their arbitration numbers get too high.  For recent examples, Milwaukee just traded Hunter Renfroe to the Angels earlier this week, and Josh Hader was dealt to the Padres just prior to the August trade deadline.

As former president of baseball operations David Stearns noted in a statement announcing the Hader deal, “this mix of present Major League talent and high-level prospects furthers our aim to get as many bites of the apple as possible and, ultimately, to bring a World Series to Milwaukee….We also recognize that to give our organization the best chance for sustained competitiveness, to avoid the extended down periods that so many organizations experience, we must make decisions that are not easy.”

Moving Adames could be a similarly tough decision for the Brewers and GM Matt Arnold, who is now the top decision-maker in Milwaukee’s front office.  On the one hand, the Brew Crew are surely hopeful of returning to contention in 2023, and having Adames in the lineup (as well as Burnes and Woodruff in the rotation) would give the team a clearer “bite of the apple,” so to speak.  On the flip side, it could be argued that Adames might be just about at the peak of his trade value this offseason, and given how the Hader deal left several Brewers players openly disappointed at the club’s direction, the front office might want to avoid another midseason trade of a key player if the Brewers are anywhere close to contention.

Though the Dodgers will keep talking to Turner’s camp, Toribio feels that “the more realistic option…is that the Dodgers don’t sign any of the top four free-agent shortstops,” referring to Turner, Xander Bogaerts, Carlos Correa, and Dansby Swanson.  This would either put Gavin Lux in line for the everyday shortstop job in 2023, or L.A. could address the shortstop position via trade, whether for Adames or another player.

Since Adames is only controlled through 2024, he might not necessarily be a longer-term answer either in Los Angeles, though he should still have some prime years remaining since he only turned 27 in September.  The Dodgers could conceivably look into extending Adames themselves, or perhaps instead use him as something of a high-level placeholder.  That would give L.A. time to decide on Lux’s ideal role, or more time to evaluate whether or not shortstop prospects Jacob Amaya or Eddys Leonard can be MLB-caliber players.

Dodgers, Twins Interested In Carlos Rodón

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The Dodgers and Twins are each facing some uncertainty in their rotations and are giving some consideration to lefty Carlos Rodón. Jon Heyman of The New York Post mentions the Dodgers as suitors while Dan Hayes and Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic report the interest of the Twins.

The interest in Rodón isn’t surprising, given his excellent two-year run of success. After injuries severely limited him in 2019 and 2020, Rodón posted a 2.37 ERA with the White Sox in 2021, along with a 34.6% strikeout rate and 6.7% walk rate. Rodón didn’t completely erase the injury concerns, as he went on the IL due to shoulder fatigue and only logged 132 2/3 innings on the year.

Those concerns were enough that the Sox didn’t issue him a qualifying offer. The Giants gave him a two-year, $44MM deal but one that allowed him to opt out after the first year if he hit 110 innings. He soared past that mark, finishing at 178 innings with a 2.88 ERA, 33.4% strikeout rate and 7.3% walk rate.

He received and rejected a qualifying offer from the Giants but still was listed as the top pitcher on MLBTR’s list of the top free agents this offseason. Jacob deGrom and Justin Verlander will likely earn stronger annual salaries but will be limited to shorter pacts because of their ages. Rodón won’t turn 30 until next month and was predicted for a five-year deal worth $140MM, an average annual value of $28MM.

For the Dodgers, their uncertainty comes from a couple of factors. One is that Walker Buehler required Tommy John surgery in August and will likely miss all of the 2023 campaign. Secondly, they could potentially lose a couple of rotation members in free agency. Tyler Anderson already rejected their qualifying offer and signed with the Angels, while Andrew Heaney is still unsigned.

Despite that, the rotation is still in good shape, with Clayton Kershaw, Julio Urias, Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May likely taking the first four spots. However, May just returned from his own Tommy John recovery in August and only made six starts down the stretch. Urias and Kershaw are both slated to reach free agency a year from now, with the latter seemingly giving some consideration to retirement every winter. Given all those question marks, an investment in the rotation makes plenty of sense.

A lengthy commitment to a starting pitcher would be a change in M.O. for the club, however. It appears that the last time they gave a starter more than three years was the four-year deal given to Brandon McCarthy prior to the 2015 season. They’ve generally preferred to find hidden gems on short-term deals, like the one-year pacts they gave to Anderson and Heaney going into 2022.

However, they’ve cleared a lot of payroll space this winter, meaning a big strike can’t be ruled out. Roster Resource currently pegs their 2023 payroll at $152MM, with a CBT number of $168MM. They could add about $60MM to next year’s spending and still be under the first luxury tax threshold, which will be $233MM in 2023. They will surely be considering doing some spending on a shortstop or perhaps Aaron Judge. But given that they had an Opening Day payroll of $281MM in 2021, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, they have enough dry powder to go after just about anyone they want.

The Twins can hardly match the Dodgers when it comes baseball’s financial hierarchy. However, they are in a good position to be more aggressive than some might expect. Their future commitments are pretty close to zero, with Byron Buxton the only player on the books for 2024 and beyond. For 2023, Roster Resource only counts $98MM in commitments at the moment, well shy of last year’s $134MM Opening Day figure, per Cot’s. There’s certainly room for a big contract of some kind, though the club’s first order of business might be seeing how Carlos Correa responds to their creative contract offers.

If a deal can’t be worked out with Correa, pivoting to Rodón makes sense given their rotation picture. They have lots of options on hand but they all come with uncertainty. Sonny Gray posted a 3.08 ERA in 2022 but injuries limited him to 24 starts and he’s a free agent next year. Tyler Mahle dealt with shoulder problems and only made four starts in a Twins uniform after being acquired from the Reds at the deadline. Like Gray, he’s a free agent after 2023. Kenta Maeda should be back in some form but he missed all of 2022 recovering from Tommy John surgery. Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober had strong results in 2022 but both are still young, with neither having yet reached 200 career innings. Chris Paddack had Tommy John in May and could return in 2023, though likely not until the second half of the season. The club also had a batch of interesting pitching prospects, though they are naturally unproven as all prospects are, particularly pitchers.

If the Dodgers or Twins are serious in their pursuit of Rodón, they will have company. They join the Giants, Yankees and Rangers as teams with reported interested in his services.

Mitch Haniger Drawing Interest From Several Teams

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Nov. 21: Both the Dodgers and Angels have also expressed interest in Haniger, tweets MLB.com’s Jon Morosi.  For the Dodgers, who non-tendered Cody Bellinger and played utilityman Chris Taylor as their most frequent left fielder in 2022, Haniger could split time between left field and designated hitter (likely pushing Taylor to the infield, where Trea Turner could potentially depart).

Over in Anaheim, Haniger would likely supplant former top prospect Jo Adell, who’s yet to establish himself as a big league regular in parts of three seasons (161 games, 557 plate appearances).

Nov. 20: Though a high ankle sprain and a two-week stint on the COVID-related injured list limited Mitch Haniger to only 58 games last season, the outfielder is drawing a lot of attention on the free agent market.  According to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, the Giants and Rangers are two of the clubs looking at the former All-Star.

Haniger hit .246/.308/.429 with 11 homers over 247 plate appearances in 2022, which translated to a solid 113 wRC+.  He hit for a lot (47.2%) of hard contact, and considering how teams increasingly used the shift to limit Haniger’s numbers over the last two seasons, the changing shift rules for 2023 might lead to Haniger better translating those hard-hit balls into base hits.

Due to a ruptured testicle and a torn adductor muscle, Haniger played in just 63 games in 2019 and he missed the 2020 season entirely.  Returning for a full season in 2021, Haniger hit .253/.318/.485 with 39 homers in 691 PA — pretty close to the production the outfielder delivered in his first two seasons with the Mariners in 2017-18.

Between this health history, his lack of a real platform season, and his age (32 in December), Haniger faces an interesting trip in free agency.  Despite all the drawbacks, MLBTR still projected him for a three-year, $39MM deal based on how well Haniger has performed when healthy.  It is possible Haniger might pursue a deal with an opt-out clause after the first season, or perhaps just a straight one-year deal entirely so he can re-enter the market next winter on the heels of what he hopes will be a healthier and more productive 2023 season.  Or, it wouldn’t at all be surprising if Haniger wanted to lock in a multi-year commitment now, given how injuries have already sidetracked his career on multiple occasions.

Beyond just his ability at the plate, Haniger has also generally displayed above-average glovework in right field.  That would make him a particularly good fit with a defensively-conscious team like the Giants, and his right-handed bat would balance out a lefty-heavy outfield mix of Joc Pederson, LaMonte Wade Jr., Mike Yastrzemski, and Luis Gonzalez.  If San Francisco did sign Haniger, the Giants might then dangle one of their other outfielders in trade talks, or perhaps just use Wade more frequently at first base.

The Rangers, of course, are very familiar with Haniger after seeing him as an opponent for so many years in the AL West.  Texas also has a need in the outfield, with Adolis Garcia the only real lock for everyday playing time and Leody Taveras perhaps also favored for regular work in center field.  Haniger could slide into the right field mix and put Garcia in left field, and Haniger could also get some DH at-bats when Brad Miller takes a seat against left-handed pitching.

The Giants and Rangers are expected to be two of the offseason’s most aggressive teams, with San Francisco looking to bounce back after a disappointing 81-81 season and Texas trying to get back to winning baseball after six straight years under the .500 mark.  Both clubs have money to spend, and it’s probably worth noting that Haniger might be a backup plan to Aaron Judge in San Francisco, given how the Giants have been so frequently tied to the Bay Area native on the rumor mill.  If Judge’s asking price gets too high for the Giants’ liking, they could perhaps pursue an alternate route of signing Haniger for right field and then splurging on another top free agent (like one of the major shortstops, or an ace pitcher).  The Rangers are expected to be focusing much of their winter efforts on rotation upgrades, but bolstering the lineup is also on the to-do list.

Bellinger Likely To Sign One-Year Deal; Blue Jays Have Expressed Interest

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In the months leading up to last week’s non-tender deadline, Cody Bellinger’s status with the Dodgers stood out as perhaps the most fascinating decision among the group, serving as the basis for plenty of spirited debate about whether the former NL MVP would be traded, non-tendered or brought back for one more chance to right the ship in Los Angeles. The Dodgers ultimately made the decision to cut Bellinger loose, making him one of the most intriguing boom-or-bust options on this year’s market — particularly given the scarcity of center fielders.

Agent Scott Boras tells Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic that he’s already received multi-year offers for Bellinger — presumably from teams hoping for the chance to secure a player with star potential at what would be a bargain annual value if they’re successfully able to rehabilitate him. However, pointing to Bellinger’s age (27), Boras suggested that he and Bellinger “most likely… don’t want a multi-year [contract].” MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets that the Blue Jays are among the teams to have expressed early interest in Bellinger, adding that they held some trade discussions surrounding Bellinger prior to his non-tender.

There’s good sense to pursuing only contracts that would allow Bellinger to return to the market a year from now. He won’t turn 28 years old until around the 2023 All-Star break, making him the youngest free agent of note this offseason. And although Bellinger has managed just a .193/.256/.355 slash with a 27.1% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate since Opening Day 2021 — due in no small part to a series of shoulder injuries that culminated in surgery — he’s also a former NL Rookie of the Year and Most Valuable Player. From 2017-20, he appeared in 506 games and tallied 2083 plate appearances while batting .273/.364/.547 with 123 home runs, a 21.5% strikeout rate and a 12.4% walk rate.

Even amid his recent offensive freefall, Bellinger has remained at least an average center fielder by virtue of any defensive metric, with Statcast offering particularly bullish reviews of his glovework. Statcast pegs Bellinger at eight Outs Above Average over the past two seasons and placed him in the 63rd percentile or better in arm strength, outfielder jump and sprint speed in both 2021 and 2022. Bellinger swiped 14 bags in 17 tries this past season and is 62-for-76 (81.5%) in his big league career.

Boras represents a pair of former All-Star rebound hopefuls under the age of 30 — Bellinger and Michael Conforto — but he’s publicly declared different contractual targets for the pair of outfielders. With regard to Conforto, Boras has spoken about the goal and purported likelihood that he’ll sign a two-year deal with the opportunity to opt out of the contract after one season — similar in concept (although perhaps not in magnitude) to the one fellow client Carlos Rodon inked with the Giants last winter.

That the ostensible preference or goal for Bellinger is to ink a straight one-year deal doesn’t necessarily indicate that no team is willing to put forth a multi-year deal and an opt-out, but it’s nevertheless a notable discrepancy for a pair of rebound candidates with All-Star ceilings. A straight one-year deal would quite likely be more appealing for teams, as any two-year pact with an opt-out carries considerably more downside for the signing club. (The second year on such contracts is typically only in play if the player gets hurt or performs poorly.)

A straight one-year deal for Bellinger gives him the best path to max out his current earning power, relatively limited as it may be, though it also creates the possibility that even if things break right for him, he’ll be saddled with a qualifying offer a year from now. If Bellinger rebounds strongly enough, that’s not likely to be a major detriment to his market as a 28-year-old, but it’s surely something that’s in the back of his mind as he weighs interest. While it’s doubtful he’d necessarily prioritize signing with a club that feels like a playoff long shot, Bellinger might also be more open to doing so, knowing that if he plays well and emerges as a trade candidate, a midseason move could help him dodge that QO entirely. Of course, a lot needs to go right for him to even be in that position.

A potential fit with the Blue Jays is easy enough to see — particularly after the team traded Teoscar Hernandez to the Mariners. Signing Bellinger would allow the Jays to slide George Springer from center field to right field while simultaneously adding a left-handed bat to help balance out an extremely right-handed lineup. The 2021-22 version of Bellinger is a major step down from Hernandez offensively, but the Jays would be a better defensive club with this alignment, and the obvious hope would be that a change of scenery would help bring Bellinger’s offense back up closer to its prior heights — even if a full rebound is probably too optimistic.

Free Agent Notes: Judge, White Sox, Strahm

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There is an increasing belief that the Dodgers will make a run at AL MVP winner Aaron Judge, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Heyman notes that the Dodgers have freed up $100MM, with Cody Bellinger, Craig Kimbrel, Tyler Anderson, Andrew Heaney, David Price, Trea Turner, and Justin Turner no longer on the roster, and that the Dodgers have an outfield gap to fill. Justin Terranova of the New York Post adds that the Dodgers were previously viewed as being on the outskirts of the Aaron Judge sweepstakes, with the Giants posing the biggest threat in his return to the Bronx. The Yankees have already sent the superstar’s camp a new offer, but Terranova notes that the Giants have “indicated that they were willing to break the bank for Judge’s services.”

There has been speculation that Judge, who grew up outside of San Francisco, might be inclined to play closer to home, with Randy Miller of NJ.com noting that the star spends “parts of his offseasons in Linden” but resides in Tampa. For his part, Judge has played coy when asked about his free agency, telling reporters after he won the AL MVP that he is “looking forward to getting the free-agent process going,” but noting that “a lot of stuff doesn’t kick in until the winter meetings in December,” per Terranova.

Elsewhere in the League:

  • White Sox pitching coach Ethan Katz has indicated that his team “need[s] another starter” with Johnny Cueto entering free agency, according to Tim Stebbins of NBC Sports Chicago. Katz adds that Chicago has discussed bringing back Cueto, and it was previously reported that Cueto is open to a return to the team. Inked to a minor league contract in early April, Cueto joined Chicago in late May and posted one of his strongest seasons over the past five years. The 36-year-old worked to a 3.35 ERA in 158 1/3 innings, albeit with a career-low 15.7% strikeout rate and a strong 5.1% walk rate. As noted in MLBTR’s 2022-23 Free Agent Starters article, Cueto’s age, lack of missed bats, and 91 MPH fastball likely won’t earn him a huge deal, but he will almost surely earn a guaranteed rotation spot entering the 2023 season.
  • On the heels of a successful season in Boston, Matt Strahm is in search of an opportunity to start on the free agent market, per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. However, Speier notes the seven-year veteran has only discussed bullpen opportunities so far this offseason. Strahm last started during the 2019 season, before transitioning to a bullpen role with the Padres in July of that season. Following a slow recovery from a 2020 patellar tendon surgery on his right knee, he was DFA’d after the 2021 season and subsequently picked up by the Red Sox on a one-year, $3MM deal. Despite being limited to only 27 1/3 innings across the 2020-2021 seasons, Strahm played an integral role in Boston’s pen in 2022, pitching to a 3.83 ERA in 44 2/3 innings and earning four saves. Importantly, after two years of sub-20% strikeout rates, Strahm punched out an above-average 26.9% of opposing batters while walking a solid 8.8%.

Dodgers Non-Tender Cody Bellinger

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The Dodgers will not tender a contract to Cody Bellinger for his final year of arbitration eligibility, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic (Twitter link). MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had projected the 2019 NL MVP for a salary around $18.1MM. Bellinger will be a free agent once the team officially announces the decision.

It’s not a surprising move at this point, but it’s one nobody would’ve foreseen when Bellinger was collecting his MVP trophy three years ago. He blasted 47 home runs that season and posted an overall .305/.406/.629 line across 661 plate appearances. The left-handed hitter looked to have cemented himself as one of the sport’s preeminent sluggers, and he carried a career .278/.368/.559 mark in over 1800 plate appearances heading into 2020. At age 24, Bellinger seemed a budding superstar.

Unfortunately, things have gone south over the past few seasons. He stumbled a bit during the abbreviated 2020 campaign, putting up a .239/.333/.455 line in 56 games. That was still above-average production but a notable step back from the numbers of his first few seasons. A putrid .245 batting average on balls in play seemed to be a major cause of that, and one could certainly point to the anomalous circumstances that year in anticipating a bounceback.

That’s not how things have played out, seemingly in part due to an ill-advised celebration that postseason. Bellinger dislocated his right shoulder celebrating a crucial home run in Game 7 of the 2020 NLCS. While he played out the postseason, he underwent surgery in mid-November. Bellinger was healthy enough to open the 2021 campaign on the roster, but he battled a series of unrelated leg and rib issues. In between, his slash line plummeted to a meager .165/.240/.302 in 95 games.

L.A. brought him back last winter, avoiding arbitration on a $17MM salary. Their hoped-for bounceback season didn’t really materialize, though. Bellinger’s 2022 numbers were improved from the prior year but nowhere near those of previous seasons. In 550 trips to the plate, he put up a .210/.265/.389 mark. That brings him to exactly 900 plate appearances over the past two years, in which he’s hit .193/.256/.355. His on-base percentage is lowest among the 151 hitters with 900+ trips to the dish, while his batting average bests only that of Joey Gallo. He’s sixth from the bottom in slugging.

Bellinger’s batted ball metrics and power output have taken a step back, which could indicate he’s never quite regained the explosiveness in his swing after the shoulder surgery. Yet he’s also seen a marked uptick in strikeouts, fanning 27.1% of the time after cutting his strikeout rate below 18% in 2019-20. His walk percentage fell to a below-average 7.7%, and manager Dave Roberts has increasingly dropped him further in the batting order.

With two full seasons of huge offensive struggles under his belt, the Dodgers have elected to move on rather than pay the two-time All-Star in the neighborhood of $18MM. That always looked to be more than even the high-spending franchise would be willing to pay, and it stands to reason no other club was willing to offer that kind of salary either. The Dodgers have presumably spent the past few weeks gauging the trade market for Bellinger, and that he’ll be cut loose for no return indicates there wasn’t much interest at that price point.

That said, there’s no question he’ll be of interest to teams as a bounceback target at a lower cost. Bellinger, to his credit, hasn’t allowed his offensive struggles to affect his work in the field. He’s an elite runner who has moved full-time to center field after coming up as a first baseman and corner outfielder. Defensive Runs Saved has rated him as a roughly average center fielder the last two years, but Ultimate Zone Rating and Statcast have pegged him above par. Statcast has been most bullish, rating him as seven runs above average in just under 1900 innings of center field work since the start of the 2021 campaign.

Slightly above-average center field defense and plus baserunning gives Bellinger a decent floor even if he’s not hitting well, although he’s obviously quite a bit more of an upside play than a traditional glove-only outfielder. He’ll look for a complete reset offensively but heading into his age-27 campaign, he could certainly still rediscover some of his old form at the plate.

Non-tendered players aren’t subject to waivers, so Bellinger will be a free agent. He and his representatives at the Boras Corporation will have the opportunity to gauge interest from other teams, and they’ll benefit from a lack of supply in center field. Excepting Aaron Judge, former Met Brandon Nimmo is the top center fielder available in free agency. Bellinger arguably becomes the next-best option in a class that also includes Kevin Kiermaier, Adam Duvall and Jackie Bradley Jr.

The Mets, Blue Jays, Marlins, Rangers, Rays, Rockies, Astros, Padres and Giants (a team run by former L.A. executive Farhan Zaidi) could all look externally for center help. They’re speculative fits for Bellinger, and the Dodgers themselves could remain in contact about a reunion at a lower price point.

Los Angeles could give Mookie Betts, Chris Taylor or Trayce Thompson increased center field run, but it stands to reason they’ll also scour the market for help outside the organization. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports (on Twitter) they’re taking a look at Kiermaier as part of that search.

Subtracting Bellinger’s arbitration projection leaves L.A. with around $152MM in projected 2023 payroll, per Roster Resource, pending additional arbitration decisions. They’re estimated around $169MM in luxury tax obligations, leaving them well shy of next year’s $233MM base tax threshold. That doesn’t include an approximate $20MM salary for Clayton Kershaw, who’s reportedly nearing a deal to re-sign. Still, the Dodgers should have plenty of financial breathing room to address shortstop, center field, third base and rotation depth that look like the team’s biggest question marks early in the offseason.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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