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AL Notes: Twins, Astros, Gurriel, Angels

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Although the Twins’ have enjoyed a rapid turnaround from 78 wins a season ago to 101 wins and a division title this year, that breakout has roots tracing back to 2009, writes Dan Hayes of The Athletic. A decade ago, the Twins landed a transformative class of international amateurs—Miguel Sano, Max Kepler, and Jorge Polanco—that blossomed into franchise cornerstones and 2019 stars. At the time, the $4.65MM the team doled out to land the three 16-year-olds was uncharacteristic for the Twins franchise, which had largely been a non-factor in the international scene; the team had no academy in the Dominican Republic and had virtually no connections with the players’ pseudo-agents. That made it especially difficult to land Sano, a coveted prospect who commanded a $3.15MM bonus and captured the attention of nearly every MLB club. On the other hand, there was less competition for Kepler, a German-born prospect, and Polanco, a scrawny teenager who lacked the projectability of Sano. Of course, those signings have delivered immense value to a team that has ridden Polanco, Kepler, and Sano to the franchise’s first division title since 2010. According to Baseball-Reference’s version of WAR, those three have been the 2019 Twins’ first-, third-, and seventh-most valuable players, combining to contribute 12.8 wins of value to the team.

  • At age 35, Astros first baseman Yuli Gurriel could be playing himself into another contract with Houston’s club, writes The Athletic’s Jake Kaplan. Gurriel has enjoyed a career year at an age where he should be declining, perhaps a reflection of his acclimation to the game in the United States. The 2020 season will be the last under his current contract, a five-year, $47MM deal inked prior to 2016, when he defected to the U.S. as one of Cuba’s most accomplished players. He’s by no means the star of a stacked lineup in Houston—he most often slots into the sixth spot for the Astros—but he has delivered solid offensive value, thanks in part to an in-season mechanical change, a focus on lifting the ball, and a heightened focus on preparation.
  • With eliminated teams beginning to consider offseason decisions, the Angels will have to decide whether to protect 26-year-old infielder Jose Rojas or expose him to the Rule 5 Draft. He posted career-best numbers at Triple-A this year, slugging 31 home runs and a .293/.362/.577 batting line. Mike DiGiovanna of Baseball America takes a look at Rojas’s case, pointing out that teams around baseball are having some difficulty tuning their evaluation of Triple-A players to the drastically altered offensive environment at the level. Since Triple-A leagues introduced the MLB-used baseball for the 2019 season, power numbers have universally spiked in Triple-A. With the reliability of raw home run numbers in question, DiGiovanna points out that teams are increasingly reliant on their scouts’ eyes in their valuation of Triple-A players.

Central Notes: Gordon, Twins, Braun, Pirates

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Once again, Royals general manager Dayton Moore has made it clear that the club wants left fielder Alex Gordon to return in 2020. According to Randy Covitz of the Kansas City Star, Moore informed a group of season ticket holders that he told Gordon, “We want you back.” Moore added, “We’re a better ball club with Alex Gordon.” Set to turn 36 in February, Gordon indicated earlier this month he’s likely to wait until the winter to decide if he’ll continue playing next season. The career-long Royal has said he’ll only play for them if he does keep going. Gordon has a $23MM mutual option (or a $4MM buyout) for 2020, but the two sides figure to work out a much cheaper arrangement in the event he doesn’t retire.

More from the game’s Central divisions…

  • Twins manager Rocco Baldelli expects the banged up duo of outfielder Max Kepler and utilityman Marwin Gonzalez to be ready when the American League Division Series begins next week, Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com relays. Meanwhile, injured utility player Ehire Adrianza is making progress, but he’s not as far along in his recovery process as Kepler and Gonzalez are in theirs. Shoulder and back problems have prevented Kepler from taking an at-bat since Sept. 14, thereby derailing a breakout season; Gonzalez has been dealing with oblique issues throughout the month; and Adrianza went down Sept. 12 with oblique troubles of his own.
  • The Brewers announced that outfielder Ryan Braun exited their game against the Rockies on Friday with discomfort in his left calf. The severity of the injury isn’t clear, but with Christian Yelich done for the year and Lorenzo Cain playing through injuries, a serious ailment for Braun would be another unwelcome development for the Brewers’ outfield as the playoffs approach. While the 35-year-old Braun is no longer the star he was in his prime, he has still contributed a valuable .285/.343/.505 line with 22 home runs and 11 steals on 12 attempts in 508 plate appearances this season. [UPDATE: Braun suffered a strain and will undergo an MRI, per Adam McCalvy of MLB.com.]
  • The Pirates have discussed using left-hander Steven Brault as an occasional outfielder in 2020, according to manager Clint Hurdle (via Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette). The 27-year-old Brault hasn’t garnered any professional experience in the grass, but he did play some outfield at Regis University. Brault would be open to giving it a shot in the majors, Adam Berry of MLB.com tweets.

Health Notes: Turner, Kepler, Wong, G. Sanchez

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Nationals shortstop Trea Turner suffered a fractured right index finger April 3, and though the speedster made it back in mid-May, he’s nowhere near healthy, Brittany Ghiroli of The Athletic details (subscription required). The index finger is a “swollen, disjointed mess,” per Ghiroli, whose piece includes quotes from Turner and some Nationals teammates and coaches in regards to his ability to play through it. Third baseman Anthony Rendon, who revealed to Ghiroli that Turner also broke his right middle finger, is in awe of the season he has had despite the injury. “I don’t know how he does it. When I messed up my thumb or whatever earlier in the year, you can’t even hold a bat,” said Rendon. “You don’t realize you need to use all your freaking fingers, but he can’t, which is even more impressive.” The Nationals locked up a wild-card spot Tuesday with a doubleheader sweep of the Phillies. All Turner did was collect three hits, including two doubles, in Game 1 and then belt a go-ahead grand slam in a come-from-behind victory in the evening.

  • Twins outfielder Max Kepler has been dealing with left shoulder issues since Sept. 8, when he left a game against Cleveland after swinging awkwardly. The ailing Kepler hasn’t taken an at-bat in almost two weeks (Sept. 14), and it’ll be a little while longer before he does. The breakout 26-year-old is currently planning to make it back “no later than the beginning of a possible postseason series,” Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com writes. The Twins are on the verge of clinching the AL Central, so avoiding the wild-card game will give Kepler a bit of extra time to get ready for a first-round series.
  • The left hamstring strain Cardinals second baseman Kolten Wong suffered last Thursday is a Grade 2 tear, according to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. That likely sounds worse than it is, as Wong’s hopeful he’ll be able to come back during the Cardinals’ final series of the regular season. The Redbirds are closing in on a division title thanks in part to Wong, a .285/.361/.423 hitter with 11 home runs and 24 stolen bases in 549 plate appearances. His absence has enabled Matt Carpenter to get back into the Cardinals’ everyday lineup at third base, while highly productive rookie Tommy Edman has taken over for Wong at the keystone.
  • Yankees catcher Gary Sanchez is hoping to return from a groin strain this weekend, James Wagner of the New York Times tweets. That would give Sanchez a bit of time to tune up before the AL East champions’ first-round series. The slugger hasn’t played since Sept. 12, which has left New York’s catcher position to Austin Romine and Kyle Higashioka.

AL Notes: Royals, Yankees, Hicks, Orioles, Kepler

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In a discussion with Sam Mellinger of the Kansas City Star, outgoing Royals owner David Glass reflects on his 20 years spent spearheading a Major League team, touching on a wide variety of subjects ranging from regrets, financial challenges, and the next chapter for the Royals. Glass offers some insight into the factors that led him to seek out John Sherman as the next Royals owner, including a desire to ensure the franchise remains in Kansas City. He speaks about the ups and downs of the last two decades, a time that saw the franchise emerge from some of its darkest moments to claim a World Series victory. He shares regrets and memories, as well as his philosophy for operating a small-market team. Finally, Glass gives a glimpse into his decision to forgo a bidding process, instead specifically targeting Sherman to take over the team in his wake, with the hope that the new ownership regime will keep the organization “basically intact.”

Let’s turn to other nuggets from the American League…

  • Yankees outfielder Aaron Hicks, still recovering from elbow issues, has begun to throw from 90 feet, per Bryan Hoch of MLB.com. When we last heard from Hicks, a second opinion recommended several more weeks of rest after suffering a setback in early September. At this time, Hicks and the Yankees are still optimistic that he won’t require Tommy John surgery, though that’s not guarantee—he’s due for another evaluation shortly. However, the timeline has all but confirmed that Hicks won’t be ready to return at any point in the postseason.
  • Though there has been some clamoring for the Chris Davis era in Baltimore to end, Orioles general manager Mike Elias expects the 33-year-old to be back with the team in spring training 2020, tweets Dan Connolly of The Athletic. While Davis’s dreadful performance has certainly not earned him a spot in the team’s future plans, the reality remains that the ex-slugger is under contract for three more years, a span in which he’ll earn another $69MM. While internal options like Trey Mancini or minor-leaguer Ryan Mountcastle might make more sense, it appears that the club is committed to reforming its highest-paid player.
  • While there still isn’t a concrete timetable for the Twins’ Max Kepler to return to the lineup, he’s set to dial up his workload in the coming days, according to La Velle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune. Kepler, who hasn’t made a plate appearance for Minnesota since September 14, has been dealing with somewhat nebulous shoulder and back issues for months. One of the most productive hitters in the Minnesota lineup, it feels imperative that Kepler is available for postseason play. While the precise timetable remains unknown, it seems that ramping up his swings and hitting off a high-velocity machine is a step in the right direction.

MRI On Max Kepler Comes Back Clean

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Sept. 9: Kepler’s MRI didn’t reveal any structural damage, tweets Darren Wolfson of SKOR North 1500. He’s dealing with inflammation in his left shoulder but has seemingly avoided a major injury, which is obviously a sigh relief for the Twins and their fans. There’s still no clear timeline on Kepler’s return to the lineup.

Sept. 8: Max Kepler left the Twins’ 5-2 loss to the Indians today after just one inning, as the outfielder was feeling discomfort in his left shoulder and scapula after an at-bat in the bottom of the first.  As MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Park described it, “Kepler appeared to swing awkwardly” during the plate appearance, which resulted in a pop-up to Cleveland starter Mike Clevinger.  Kepler didn’t return to right field for the top of the second.

This marks the second time in less than a week that the issue has forced Kepler to make an early exit from a game, and these shoulder/scapula problems have been bothering the outfielder for months, as he told Park and other reporters after the game.  The injury has become worse in recent days, which Kepler felt could have been due to aggravating his shoulder while making throws.  Kepler said the soreness is “concerning,” and will undergo an MRI to investigate the problem on Monday.

Kepler has just four hits over his last 32 plate appearances, so it isn’t surprising to learn that this nagging problem has become a greater issue.  For now, he is just listed as day-to-day, joining a number of notable Twins players battling the injury bug.  As Park notes, the club is already trying to get by without Nelson Cruz (wrist), Miguel Sano (back), Marwin Gonzalez (oblique), Byron Buxton (shoulder) and Sam Dyson (biceps), not to mention the permanent loss of Michael Pineda for the remainder of the season due to a PED suspension.

If Kepler has to miss time, Minnesota’s outfield depth will consist of regular Eddie Rosario and then a host of second-choice options, such as utilitymen Luis Arraez and Ehire Adrianza, Jake Cave, the newly-acquired Ryan LaMarre, and rookies LaMonte Wade Jr. and Ian Miller.  On the plus side, the Twins still have a 5.5 game lead over the Indians in the AL Central, though they face the Tribe in Cleveland in a big three-game set next weekend.

Kepler has been in the midst of a breakout season, hitting .252/.337/.522 with 36 homers over 587 PA.  The 26-year-old has reached new personal bests in just about every major offensive category, making the five-year, $35MM extension the Twins reached with Kepler in February look like an even cannier investment for the club.

The Twin Gems Of The Spring Extensions

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The dizzying run of extensions this spring drew quite a lot of attention. Several contracts were pointed to as being notably team friendly. Others were of obvious importance because they involved superstars entering walk years.

The sheer volume of transactions tended to obscure the fine details of each particular decision. And several of the extensions were all but buried in the news. When the Twins set up the mics to announce extensions for Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler, the full rush of deals hadn’t yet occurred. But the moves came at the same time that star hurlers Aaron Nola and Luis Severino were signing on the dotted line, drawing much of the attention away from a Minnesota club that was coming off of a middling 2018 season and hadn’t been quite as bold as might have been anticipated in free agency. And the flood of later signings ensured that the Twins’ deals would receive relatively little attention.

Frankly, given the costs involved, those signings did not represent an especially monumental moment for the franchise. The Joe Mauer contract, this was not. The Twins did not strike deals with top young starter Jose Berrios or high-end outfielder Eddie Rosario, both of whom would likely have commanded bigger dollars. Better-known former top prospects Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano weren’t really in position for extensions after rough seasons.

So, did we sleep on the Twins? From a team perspective, the roster upside was obvious, but nobody foresaw a 36-17 start to the year and a ten-game lead over the sagging Indians. And what of the extensions they signed? Any sober examination of the Polanco and Kepler contracts at the time of signing would have noted the potential upside but settled on relatively modest expectations. With a third of the season in the books, both deals look like slam dunks.

Let’s look first at Polanco. When the Twins promised him $25.75MM over five years, they were obviously quite comfortable with the risks and had expectations of excess value. But it’s hard to imagine they anticipated the sort of monster production they’ve received from the 25-year-old shortstop.

When MLBTR’s Steve Adams pointed to Jose Ramirez as a comp, he was thinking primarily of the latter’s contract — not his ensuing breakout. As it turns out, Polanco has followed Ramirez in converting contact ability into power.

This can’t be called a total surprise. As Adams wrote in assessing the Polanco deal, “if he can tap into a bit more power, there’s perhaps room to take his game to another offensive level.” Certainly, the Twins felt there was something more in the tank after a strong but hardly elite showing in 2018. The stated expectation was that the “best is yet to come” and that Polanco would “continue to develop and grow.”

But that was all projection and feel-good press conference talk. Did anyone really think Polanco would turn on the jets in this manner? He’s now slashing .332/.404/.584 with nine home runs in 228 plate appearances. Better yet, he has boosted his walk rate up to 10.5% and hasn’t even needed to add swing and miss (14.9% strikeout rate) to boost his pop. There’s likely a bit of regression in store, with a .363 BABIP and decent spread in Statcast results/expectations (.418 wOBA vs. .382 xwOBA). But the arrow is obviously pointed upward.

It’s easy to see how the contract could become the sort of bargain that helps fuel a lengthy contention window. One need only look at Ramirez. The Twins had ample control over Polanco already, as he was only a 2+ service-class, non-Super Two player. (He’d have had more but for an ill-advised PED suspension.) Because they made the deal before arbitration and in advance of a true breakout, the Twins can control Polanco through the 2025 season for a total cost of just $47MM, with the final two seasons coming via option ($10.5MM/$1MM buyout, $12.5MM/$750K buyout).

Things are looking quite nice on the Kepler side of things as well. He inked a five-year, $35MM deal. The calculus was different from the get-go in his case, though the decision to make the deal was also driven by a belief that he was primed to improve. Kepler had already reached arbitration as a Super Two, agreeing to a $3.125MM salary with the organization earlier in the winter. With three more arb trips to build from that baseline, and a track record of solid home run production, Kepler was able to command a higher payday.

In some respects, this was the riskier deal for the team. True, he had shown plenty of skill: the 26-year-old had already cracked twenty long balls, turned in three seasons of .180+ isolated power, and made great strides in his plate discipline in 2018 (11.6% walk rate vs. 15.7% strikeout rate). He’s also regarded as a quality defensive outfielder. At the same time, it took a bit of a leap of faith to entrust this kind of cash in a corner outfielder that hadn’t yet turned in a full season of league-average production by measure of wRC+.

So far, so good. Kepler has already launched a dozen long balls in 211 plate appearances. He’s maintaining that strong K/BB blend. And he’s up to a .281 batting average on a .272 batting average on balls in play — a reversal of some poor fortune from 2018 (.224 batting average, .236 BABIP). Statcast credits him with more hard contact (44.5%) and a loftier launch angle (17.2 degrees) than ever before.

Kepler’s early showing surely makes the Twins feel even better about their commitment than they did at the time. Beyond the $35MM guaranteed, the Twins have another year of control at just $10MM ($1MM buyout).

Will Polanco and Kepler keep this up for the long haul? Or even the duration of the present season? That’s hard to say. A fair but conservative estimate would anticipate some regression. But it’d also recognize a very real increase in the present and anticipated future on-field value of these players.

While these contracts largely fell through the cracks at the time they were struck, they now look to be among the best buys of the spring. The team deserves credit for rightly identifying these targets. But it’s also a credit to Polanco and Kepler. They accepted reasonably fair deals, based upon their prior track records, then set to work turning those contracts into potential bargains. As for the Twins organization, these deals didn’t change the near-term complexion of the roster in the least. But they sure do help brighten the long-term outlook.

Twins To Extend Max Kepler

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3:40pm: Heyman tweets the full breakdown. Kepler earns successive salaries of $6MM, $6.25MM, $6.5MM, $6.75MM, and $8.5MM and will then receive either a $10MM salary or $1MM buyout. That 2024 option year salary can increase by up to $1MM based upon awards.

11:25am: It’s a five-year deal worth $35MM for Kepler, reports MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). The deal also contains a club option for a sixth season, which is valued at $10MM, according to ESPN’s Jeff Passan (Twitter link).

10:25am: The Twins are nearing the completion of a new contract with right fielder Max Kepler, Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune reports. If and when the deal is completed, it’d be the second long-term deal hammered out by the Twins this week, as the team is also reported to be finalizing a five-year pact with shortstop Jorge Polanco. The Twins, notably, have scheduled a press conference for 10am tomorrow morning. Kepler is represented by Sosnick, Cobbe & Karon.

Max Kepler | Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

Kepler has already agreed to a $3.125MM deal for the 2019 season as a Super Two player, though a new long-term arrangement could potentially supersede that prior agreement. The German-born 26-year-old has spent the past three seasons as Minnesota’s primary right fielder, batting a combined .233/.314/.418 (96 OPS+) with 56 homers, 82 doubles, eight triples and 16 steals in 1626 plate appearances. He’s proven himself to be a strong defender in that time (+15 Defensive Runs Saved, +11 Ultimate Zone Rating, +32 Outs Above Average) and has drawn favorable reviews for his baserunning as well, even if his stolen-base totals are lacking (+8.1 BsR, per Fangraphs).

While Kepler’s overall production in his three years as an MLB regular doesn’t immediately stand out, there’s reason to believe that he could yet deliver a more impressive level of offensive output. For the first few seasons of his career, Kepler struggled mightily against left-handed pitching but turned in strong output against righties. From 2016-17, he hit .262/.336/.477 when holding the platoon advantage but mustered just a .177/.243/.280 slash against left-handers. This past season, though, Kepler delivered a much-improved .245/.323/.422 line against lefties and dramatically improved his strikeout and walk rates against them. Unfortunately, he saw his average on balls in play against right-handers crater, leading to diminished overall results.

If Kepler can bounce back in terms of BABIP against righties and maintain some of last year’s gains against lefties, there’s reason to expect the outfielder’s best season yet. Beyond that fairly rudimentary look at Kepler’s splits, he improved his walk rate to a career-high 11.6 percent in 2018 while slashing his strikeout rate to a career-low 15.7 percent. It’s also worth noting that the Berlin native also has less overall experience with baseball than most young players at his age, given baseball’s lack of popularity in his home country.

As things stand, Kepler will reprise his role as the everyday right fielder, with Eddie Rosario lining up in left and Minnesota once again hoping to see former No. 2 overall pick and top overall prospect Byron Buxton solidify himself at the Major League level. Buxton looked to be well on his way to breaking out as a star in 2017, but a series of injuries torpedoed his 2018 season and rendered him a question mark in 2019. He’ll get the first crack at regular work in center field, though the Twins also have Jake Cave on hand should Buxton struggle or be slowed by injuries once again. Both Kepler and Rosario can handle center field, as well.

A look at recent comparables in MLBTR’s Extension Tracker — specifically, Super Two outfielders with two to three years of service — Ender Inciarte stands out as a potentially relevant data point. The Braves’ center fielder signed an extension at the same age Kepler is now and with nearly identical service time, agreeing to a five-year pact worth $30.525MM prior to the 2017 campaign. Something in that range for Kepler could very well be plausible, though presumably his camp would like to top that mark in any negotiations.

As noted when looking at Polanco’s soon-to-be-finalized extension, the Twins don’t have a single guaranteed contract on the books beyond the 2019 season. Polanco and Kepler would change that fact and give the Minnesota organization additional cost certainty as it looks to supplement a roster that is largely comprised of young assets who are still years from reaching the open market. It’s possible that additional extensions could yet come to fruition, with Rosario and Jose Berrios standing out as prominent young Twins who the organization would surely like to retain for a longer period of time.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: American League

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The deadline for players and teams to exchange arbitration figures passed at 1pm ET yesterday, meaning over the next few hours, there will be a landslide of settlements on one-year deals to avoid an arbitration hearing. We’ll track today’s minor settlements from the American League in this post. Once all of the day’s settlements have filtered in, I’ll organize them by division to make them a bit easier to parse.

It’s worth mentioning that the vast majority of teams have adopted a “file and trial” approach to arbitration, meaning that once arbitration figures are exchanged with a player, negotiations on a one-year deal will cease. The two parties may still discuss a multi-year deal after that point, but the majority of players who exchange figures with their team today will head to an arbitration hearing.

As always, all salary projections referenced within this post are courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, and we’ll also be updating our 2019 Arbitration Tracker throughout the day…

Today’s Updates

  • Yankees 1B Greg Bird will make $1.2 MM next season, per Bob Nightengale on Twitter.
  • The controversial Roberto Osuna will make $6.5MM next season, per Feinsand. Teammate Jake Marisnick, who again scuffled in ’18 after a promising 2017, will make $2.2125MM.
  • Per Mark Feinsand on Twitter, A’s lefty Sean Manaea $3.15MM in what’s sure to be an injury-marred 2019.
  • Hard-throwing reliever Mychal Givens will make $2.15MM, per Eduardo A. Encina of the Tampa Bay Times (via Twitter), with additional incentives for making the All-Star team or placing in the Top-3 for the Rivera/Hoffman Reliever of the Year Awards, added MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter).
  • The Mariners agreed on a $1.95MM deal with outfielder Domingo Santana, per MLB.com’s Greg Johns (via Twitter). Santana is the second and last of the Mariners’ arbitration-eligible players.
  • The Angels agreed to contracts with a pair of players yesterday, per Maria Torres of the LA Times (via Twitter). Reliever Hansel Robles signed for $1.4MM. Robles threw 36 1/3 innings of 2.97 ERA baseball after the Angels claimed him off waivers from the Mets in June. Luis Garcia, acquired via trade from the Phillies this winter, signed for $1.675MM.
  • The Tigers and reliever Shane Greene settled on $4MM, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (via Twitter).
  • The Yankees reached an agreement with Sonny Gray for $7.5MM, per Nightengale. Gray, of course, has been involved trade rumors most of the winter, but for the time being, he stands to play a role in the Yankee pen while providing insurance for the rotation.
  • Didi Gregorius has also come to an agreement with the Yankees on a one-year, $11.75MM deal in his final season before free agency, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter links).
  • New Yankee James Paxton signed for $8.575, per Nightengale (via Twitter). Paxton is under contract for the 2020 season as well.
  • The Houston Astros came to an agreement with Collin McHugh for $5.8MM, per Nightengale (via Twitter). McHugh could be moving back into the rotation after a stellar season in the pen, either way this will be his final season of arb eligibility before hitting the open market.
  • Jonathan Villar comes away with $4.825MM for what will be his first full season in Baltimore, per Nightengale (via Twitter).

Earlier Updates

Read more

Trade/Free Agent Rumors: Mariners, Brantley, Kepler, Kikuchi

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While fans, pundits and other teams all try to parse the Mariners’ flurry of offseason moves, Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto chatted with Fancred’s Jon Heyman and made a few definitive statements. Dipoto went on the record to indicate that the Mariners won’t be adding star right fielder Mitch Haniger to any trades as a means of persuading another team to take on a bad contract, nor will Seattle give any consideration to the thought of releasing Felix Hernandez this offseason, as some have speculated. Dipoto says there’s “zero” chance the Mariners would release King Felix this winter, adding that “out of respect to the career he’s had he deserves the opportunity” to right the ship in 2019. Heyman suggests that any of Ryon Healy, Carlos Santana, Jay Bruce, Anthony Swarzak or Mike Leake could be the next to go as the Mariners look to further reshape the organization.

Some more rumblings on both the trade and free-agent markets…

  • Michael Brantley’s agents are telling interested teams that the left fielder is willing to play some first base next season, tweets Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Brantley hasn’t played the position since a brief crash course there in the minors back in ’08, and no club is looking at him as a regular at first, Rosenthal notes. That said, Brantley’s willingness to play a new position won’t make him any less appealing to interested parties. One thing that could push suitors away, however, would be his asking price. David O’Brien of The Athletic suggests that Brantley could be looking for a Carlos Santana-esque salary of $20MM over a three-year term — a lofty ask for a player with his injury history. The 31-year-old was undeniably terrific at the plate in 2018, as he typically is when healthy, but shoulder and ankle injuries wiped out most of his 2016-17 seasons. O’Brien further tweets that the Braves might be willing to go to three years for Brantley, but not at an annual value anywhere near that rate.
  • Max Kepler’s name is commonly brought up when rival clubs call the Twins about potential trades, per Dan Hayes of The Athletic (subscription required). That’s been the case for more than a year now, Hayes notes, reporting that Kepler was one of the numerous pieces the Rays sought last winter when chatting Chris Archer with Minnesota. But the Twins still believe that Kepler, an excellent outfielder defender who has displayed some power but not authored a genuine breakout season just yet, is capable of taking his game to a new level. As chief baseball officer Derek Falvey explains to Hayes, it’s tough to judge Kepler’s development as one would with a traditional prospect given that he was born in Berlin, Germany and has still accrued fewer at-bats than many players who are several years younger but come from places where baseball is commonly played year-round. A strong right fielder who can play center as well, Kepler won’t turn 26 until February and still has four years of team control remaining.
  • The Rangers are doing their homework on Japanese lefty Yusei Kikuchi, GM Jon Daniels tells T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com. Daniels declined to comment on the Rangers’ specific level of interest in Kikuchi but suggested that his scouts are “obviously” aware of the Seibu Lions ace, who was posted for MLB clubs earlier this week. While early rumors have suggested that Kikuchi may prefer a West Coast club, the Rangers are no strangers to pursuing high-profile NPB talent, as evidenced by their acquisition of Yu Darvish several years ago (admittedly under a different posting system). While Texas isn’t in position to contend next season, the 27-year-old Kikuchi is a logical target even for non-contending clubs, as his relative youth means that he could still be in his prime when a rebuilding club turns the corner. And, given Texas’ utter dearth of pitching, it’s only logical that they’d have interest in a youthful option with a fair bit of upside.

Twins Pursued Offseason Extensions With Multiple Young Players

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1:37pm: Rosario is one of the players who turned down an offer, Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN tweets.

9:30am: The Twins were long rumored to be chatting with center fielder Byron Buxton about a new contract this spring. But it seems he was not the only target for an organization that was evidently hoping to enhance the value of some existing player control rights.

Per Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports, via Twitter, the club pursued long-term arrangements with four other young players as well. Two of those targets are identified in the report: righty Jose Berrios and outfielder Max Kepler.

The remaining pair is not known, though perhaps it’s not unreasonable to surmise that one of them was shortstop Jorge Polanco, who had a solid 2017 campaign but ended up being suspended for half of the 2018 season. Outfielder Eddie Rosario seems to be another likely candidate, as the front office has made clear they see him “as part of the core.” Star third bagger Miguel Sano would also be a hypothetical target, no doubt, though perhaps he was not likely to be approached during an offseason in which he was under league investigation for an alleged assault.

Obviously, none of those discussions led to agreements. Perhaps, though, they could still set the stage for eventual deals.

Buxton, who is entering his final season before beginning the arbitration process, was the most obvious target from the get-go. He turned in a breakout second half at the plate and was an outstanding defender and baserunner all season long. But those previously reported talks seemingly fizzled, leaving the team to renew the 24-year-old’s contract late this spring.

It’s hardly surprising to hear of interest in Berrios, either, as he also overcame some initial MLB struggles to turn in an impressive 2017 effort. He’s a year further from the arb process (and free agency) than Buxton, but that also surely left the team intrigued at the potential value it might achieve. Berrios said a month ago that he had not been approached, so it appears that the chatter took place in the interim.

Then, there’s Kepler, who’s in an in-between position from the other two players in terms of service time. He’s on track to reach Super Two status next winter but, like Berrios, can’t accrue more than six years of MLB time until the end of the 2022 season. The 25-year-old has, to date, been a solid performer, turning in two seasons as a roughly average hitter, solid defender, and good baserunner at a corner outfield spot. Kepler’s profile is not quite as exciting as those of his aforementioned teammates, but at the right price he could also certainly make sense for a long-term deal, particularly if the club believes there’s still some developmental upside remaining to be tapped into.

In any event, none of those players have inked contracts prior to the start of the current campaign. While something could, in theory, come together at any time, Passan does say that all of the players in question turned down the offers they were presented at the time.

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