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Offseason In Review: Arizona Diamondbacks

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Despite coming off an NL-worst 2021 showing, the D-Backs declined to tear things down. They made a couple veteran additions to the bullpen, but they’re mostly rolling things back with last year’s group in hopes of a better showing. They’re not likely to contend this season, but it’ll be an evaluative year for the front office. Perhaps some young players will step in alongside their recently-extended second baseman as core pieces of the future.

Major League Signings

2022 spending: $12MM
Total spending: $20.5MM

Option Decisions

Trades and claims

Extensions

  • Signed 2B Ketel Marte to five-year, $76MM extension (deal also contains $13MM club option for 2028 and buys out up to four free agent seasons)
  • Signed RHP Merrill Kelly to two-year, $18MM extension (deal also contains $7MM club option for 2025 and buys out up to three free agent seasons)

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

The D-Backs entered the offseason faced with a decision: rebuild, or try to add and be more respectable than they were last year? They chose the latter, declining to move any notable players. It wasn’t an especially active offseason, but the only big leaguer the D-Backs dealt away was out-of-options utilityman Josh VanMeter, who presumably wasn’t going to break camp and would otherwise have been exposed to waivers.

Arizona’s front office has maintained throughout the past few months they don’t believe the roster is anywhere near as bad as last season’s 52-110 record would suggest. To some extent, that’s a justifiable interpretation. The D-Backs were hit hard by injuries to their starting rotation last year. They’ve also got a fairly young, inexperienced position player group, one from which they certainly expect some members to take steps forward.

As is the case with their division counterparts, the Rockies, it’s nevertheless difficult to see the Diamondbacks hanging around in a top-heavy NL West. That leaves the Snakes in something of a middle ground, reluctant to tear down but without a real path to immediate contention. Arizona brass is mostly treating 2022 as an evaluation season after adding on the margins of the roster but declining to make any especially noteworthy splash.

That includes in the manager’s chair. Shortly before the end of the season, the D-Backs signed Torey Lovullo to a one-year extension with a 2023 option. It wasn’t a massive show of faith in the sixth-year skipper, but it nevertheless marked some continuity when other organizations may have been tempted to shake things up after the disastrous 2021 results.

The club did make some notable changes on Lovullo’s staff, however. They hired longtime Astros’ pitching coach Brent Strom in the same role. Strom is generally regarded as one of the sport’s best pitching minds and should be a welcome addition for a staff that had MLB’s second-worst ERA (5.15) last season. Arizona also brought in former big league skipper Jeff Banister as bench coach and Joe Mather as hitting coach.

The organization surely hopes that new voices can coax better production out of holdover players, but the D-Backs also had to make some changes to the roster. Early in the offseason, it became apparent they were looking for relief help — a logical target area since they had the league’s third-worst bullpen ERA (5.08). Arizona’s two biggest free agent investments of the winter would be additions to the late-inning mix.

The Snakes signed reigning saves leader Mark Melancon to a two-year, $14MM deal. There’s risk inherent in a multi-year investment for a 37-year-old reliever, but Melancon has been one of the league’s most reliable pitchers for some time. He has seven sub-3.00 ERA seasons on his resume, including a 2.23 mark in 64 2/3 frames with the Padres last year. Melancon isn’t the overpowering strikeout specialist teams typically love late in games, but he’s elite at generating ground-balls and brings far more stability than any of the Snakes’ in-house relievers.

That’s also true — albeit to a lesser extent — of Ian Kennedy. A mid-rotation starter with the D-Backs earlier in his career, Kennedy was moved to the bullpen full-time while with the Royals in 2019. Over the next three seasons, he posted a 3.91 ERA with better than average strikeout and walk numbers over 133 2/3 innings. Kennedy isn’t an elite arm, but he’s solid, and for a fairly modest $4.75MM price tag, the Diamondbacks happily installed him as a high-leverage option.

Melancon and Kennedy were the two most notable additions to the bullpen, although the D-Backs also brought in a pair of left-handed options. Arizona claimed Kyle Nelson off waivers from the Guardians and signed veteran southpaw Oliver Pérez to a minor league deal. Pérez cracked the Opening Day roster for his 20th and final season in the majors. The bullpen should be better than it was last season, although Arizona will still need improvements from internal options like J.B. Wendelken or former top prospect Corbin Martin to have an average group.

Luke Weaver isn’t an addition to the team, but he’s a new entrant into the bullpen mix. A former top prospect, Weaver has shown flashes of mid-rotation potential but has been inconsistent as a starting pitcher. He’s coming off two straight below-average seasons and found himself squeezed out of the starting staff come Spring Training. Perhaps working in shorter stints can help Weaver — who has struggled to turn lineups over multiple times in a game — find more success. The righty is currently on the injured list after experiencing elbow inflammation but should get an opportunity to pitch his way into an important relief role if healthy.

Weaver’s move to the bullpen set the stage for what could be a revolving door at the back of the rotation. Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly are locked in as the top two starters. Madison Bumgarner’s five-year deal over the 2019-20 offseason went off the rails almost immediately, but the team isn’t in position to seriously consider bumping him out of the rotation at the moment. The final two spots, though, are real question marks.

Arizona aimed to address that a bit with their last MLB free agent signee, Zach Davies. The righty is coming off a 5.78 ERA with some of the league’s worst strikeout and walk numbers for the Cubs. Virtually nothing in his 2021 performance was encouraging aside from the fact that he stayed healthy and took the ball 32 times. Davies at least has some success in his recent history, which can’t be said for many of the other rotation possibilities.

The D-Backs initially broke camp with Caleb Smith as their #5 starter, but he was optioned last weekend. Humberto Castellanos, Tyler Gilbert and Taylor Widener are also on the 40-man roster. Arizona signed veteran Dan Straily to a minor league deal on the heels of a strong two-year run in the Korea Baseball Organization. Straily surprisingly didn’t make the Opening Day roster, but he’s another candidate for starts at some point.

All three of Arizona’s big league free agent deals were to add to the pitching staff. The D-Backs elected to run things back with last season’s position player crop, more or less. Carson Kelly returns as the starter behind the plate. He looked like he was on an All-Star trajectory in the first half of last year, but his production dipped considerably after he fractured his right wrist on a hit-by-pitch in June. He’s backed up by rookie José Herrera, who won the season-opening #2 job over minor league signees Grayson Greiner, Juan Graterol and Juan Centeno.

The D-Backs elected to tender Christian Walker an arbitration contract on the heels of a subpar showing. His $2.6MM price tag is far from exorbitant, but he’ll need to do more offensively to hold onto his first base job. Star Ketel Marte moved back to the middle infield — where he began his career — after rating poorly in center field last season. He’s the regular second baseman, where he figures to pair with defensive stalwart Nick Ahmed up the middle. Ahmed’s name was floated throughout the offseason as a (largely speculative) trade candidate, but he didn’t perform well enough to have much appeal — particularly as he’s due $18.25MM over the next two seasons. Ahmed opened the season on the injured list as he deals with shoulder pain, leaving prospect Geraldo Perdomo to handle shortstop early on.

Injuries are also a factor at third base, where the D-Backs will be without presumptive starter Josh Rojas for some time due to an oblique strain. Acquired as part of the Zack Greinke return from Houston in 2019, the lefty-hitting Rojas offered roughly league average offense in 550 plate appearances last year. He’s a bat-first player who can cover multiple positions but may not excel defensively anywhere. Those limitations aside, Rojas should at least be a solid option off the bench long-term and figures to get an opportunity to carve out an everyday role at the hot corner.

D-Backs’ brass seems to prefer Rojas as a utility option, as they spoke a few times over the offseason about a desire to acquire third base help. Arizona added a couple utility infielders in Spring Training deals but didn’t pick up an obvious regular. The D-Backs brought back Sergio Alcántara for cash considerations after he’d been designated for assignment by the Cubs. On Opening Day, they picked up Yonny Hernández in a deal with the Rangers. Neither player performed well in fairly limited time last season, but they were both low-cost fliers to backfill around the infield after the injuries to Ahmed and Rojas. Arizona also selected Matt Davidson, whom they’d signed to a minor league deal, to the big league club this week.

As they played out the string in a lost 2021 season, the D-Backs began to work some of their younger outfielders into the mix more regularly. That’ll continue, particularly after they predictably bought out Kole Calhoun’s option. Daulton Varsho, Pavin Smith and Jake McCarthy are all former well-regarded draftees who have reached the MLB level. Varsho, who’s athletic enough to play center field but also has experience at catcher, is the most promising of the group on both sides of the ball. Smith and McCarthy haven’t shown as much in their careers, but they’ll get opportunities in the corners.

D-Backs stalwart David Peralta is back as the everyday left fielder. He’s making $7.5MM this season and will hit free agency at the end of the year. Each of Varsho, Smith, McCarthy and Peralta hit left-handed, so the D-Backs brought in a righty bat in a minor trade with the Rays. Jordan Luplow has made a career of mashing against southpaws and will soon rotate into the corners as a platoon option. He’s currently on the injured list but expected to make his team debut soon.

Luplow could also see some time at designated hitter, spelling another lefty bat and former first-rounder, Seth Beer. The implementation of the universal DH gives Arizona a chance to evaluate Beer, whom they didn’t like defensively at first base. The 25-year-old has been an excellent hitter both in college and in the minors, and he’ll get a chance to carry that success over against big league pitching now that he doesn’t have to worry about playing the field.

That’s a lot of options but very little certainty. Most probably won’t pan out as anything more than role players, but the front office is surely hoping they’ll find a couple members of the long-term core. Other than Peralta, every position player on the roster is controllable beyond this season. That’s only meaningful if some take steps forward and become building blocks for the future. How many of them do is the biggest question for the D-Backs in 2022.

In resisting a rebuild, general manager Mike Hazen has spoken of a desire to “anchor” the next contention window around a few core pieces. They took a major step in that direction this spring, hammering out a long-term deal with Marte. The 28-year-old was already controllable through 2024 under the terms of the last extension he’d signed, but they finalized a new agreement that could keep him in the desert through 2028. The extension saw the Snakes essentially lock in $11MM and $13MM club options for 2023 and ’24, then tack on three additional seasons at a total of $49MM. That’s an eminently reasonable price for a player of Marte’s caliber, and the deal gives the D-Backs an affordable 2028 option as well.

That extension cemented Marte as the face of the franchise. When healthy, he’s blossomed into an excellent offensive player with a rare combination of bat-to-ball skills and power. His center field experiment didn’t go well, but they’ll hope for a better showing with the glove now that he’s back in the middle infield.

The D-Backs’ other spring extension — a two-year, $18MM pact with Merrill Kelly — doesn’t quite fit Hazen’s “anchoring” mold, but it’s an affordable enough move to keep a capable rotation piece around. Kelly is 33-years-old and not overpowering, so he’s not about to develop into a future ace. Yet he throws strikes, gets a fair amount of ground-balls, and has gotten roughly league average results since coming over from the KBO in 2019. It’s not the most exciting profile, but there’s something to be said for Kelly’s stability — particularly for an Arizona team that otherwise doesn’t have much of that in the starting staff.

Hazen and company headed into the 2022 season without making especially meaningful changes to the organization in either direction. They’re not rebuilding, but their efforts to solidify the bullpen and add modest depth on the position player side aren’t going to completely turn things around relative to last year. The Diamondbacks are mostly biding their time, waiting to see whether there’s enough of a young core here for a more aggressive push in 2023. Baseball America credited the team with the league’s 10th-best farm system this winter, so it’s not out of the question they graduate enough young talent to move quickly towards competitiveness.

That’s contingent on many of the players already at the big league level playing to their potential, though. The early results have been putrid, and they’ll need players like Carson Kelly, Varsho and Smith to perform better than they have of late. There’s still plenty of time, and the team has been willing to give those players some room for failure. Still, at some point, the D-Backs are going to have start showing better results, or they may force the front office’s hand on a rebuild the organization has been trying to avoid.

Offseason In Review: Houston Astros

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The Astros didn’t make many notable outside additions over the winter. They’re relying on an excellent internal core to make another run at a World Series, counting on their top prospect to step into the major leagues to replace one of the game’s best players.

Major League Signings

2022 spending: $35.1MM
Total spending: $44.1MM

Option Decisions

Trades and claims

Extensions

  • Signed RHP Ryan Pressly to a two-year, $30MM extension (deal also contains vesting option for 2025 based on number of appearances)

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

The Astros entered the offseason coming off a disappointing finish in the World Series, which they dropped in six games to the Braves. Considering Houston made it back to the Fall Classic — their fifth consecutive season advancing at least as far as the AL Championship Series — it stood to reason they’d try to preserve as much continuity as possible.

Generally speaking, that proved to be the case. The Astros didn’t do much to bring in talent from the outside the organization, although they wound up not bringing everyone who was instrumental to their recent success back. That was most evident in the players they lost to free agency, but the team’s first notable departure was a member of the coaching staff. Longtime pitching coach Brent Strom — generally regarded as one of the game’s best given Houston’s seeming never-ending stable of quality arms — stepped down shortly after the World Series. He’d eventually take the same position with the Diamondbacks.

Houston promoted two of Strom’s lieutenants, Josh Miller and Bill Murphy, to take on co-pitching coach duties. The rest of the staff stayed mostly the same, and for the third consecutive season, they’ll be led by veteran skipper Dusty Baker. Houston signed Baker to a one-year contract extension in November. It was a bit of a surprise to see such a short-term commitment given how adeptly Baker has taken the reigns since replacing A.J. Hinch in the midst of the sign-stealing fallout. In either event, the three-time Manager of the Year winner is back and will soon become the 12th person in MLB history to reach 2,000 career victories.

Extending Baker seemed like a fairly easy call for the front office, but they probably devoted even less time to their next couple decisions. Exercising an $8MM option on Yuli Gurriel was a no-brainer after he won the batting title in 2021. So too was handing Carlos Correa a qualifying offer; there might’ve been a little more debate about whether to QO Justin Verlander, considering he’d missed essentially the entire last two seasons recovering from Tommy John surgery.

Ultimately, however, Verlander looked as if he’d receive and reject a QO, particularly after Houston owner Jim Crane remarked in September that Verlander was seeking a multi-year deal. The $18.4MM QO price would still have been a bargain if the eight-time All-Star picked up where he left off upon returning, as he posted a 2.58 ERA in a league-best 223 innings in 2019. The Astros had as good a view as anyone on Verlander’s form throughout his recovery, and they seemed optimistic about his chances of returning to the top of a rotation.

Verlander rejected the QO as expected, but that wasn’t a precursor to a free agent departure. Less than an hour after announcing that decision, he and team agreed to a $25MM deal to keep him in Houston in 2022. That wasn’t technically the multi-year deal Crane indicated Verlander had been seeking, but he can vest a $25MM player option for the following season if he reaches 130 innings this year. If he stays healthy, Verlander should eclipse that mark with ease and lock in some extra financial security while still having the option to explore free agency next winter. The vesting option provides the team cover in the event he has an injury setback. (Through two starts, Verlander has looked like his old self, averaging north of 95 MPH on his fastball with 15 strikeouts and three walks in 13 innings).

With Verlander back, the Astros solidified a starting staff that should again be among the league’s best. Framber Valdez, Luis Garcia and José Urquidy each eclipsed 100 innings with an ERA of 3.62 or lower last season. Veteran Jake Odorizzi gives them an experienced back-of-the-rotation option. Lance McCullers Jr. will miss the first couple months of the year after his recovery from last postseason’s flexor tendon strain has dragged longer than anticipated. If he returns for the stretch run and matches last year’s form, though, Houston should have a very strong top six arms.

The Astros did lose Zack Greinke to free agency, subtracting some stability and innings from the group. Grienke is no longer an ace, but he soaked up 171 roughly average frames last season over 30 appearances. That’s valuable, but between Verlander’s return and the presence of Odorizzi and swingman Cristian Javier, the Astros felt equipped to weather it.

For now, Javier is in the bullpen, where he spent the bulk of last season. The right-hander started his first nine outings in 2021 but eventually got squeezed out of the rotation. Javier’s control wavered, but he struck out an excellent 30.7% of opposing hitters en route to a 3.55 ERA in 101 1/3 innings. Whether he eventually moves back to the rotation or settles in as a bulk relief option, he adds another exciting multi-inning arm to the mix.

Keeping Javier in relief strengthens the relative weak point on the roster. The Astros’ bullpen was a middle-of-the-pack group last year. It certainly wasn’t catastrophic, but it’s the least exceptional part of the club. The club picked up Kendall Graveman in a deadline deal with the division-rival Mariners, but he signed a three-year deal with the White Sox this winter. Not coincidentally, the bullpen is the one area where the team made a notable investment to bring in a player from outside.

Houston signed former Phillies closer Héctor Neris to a two-year, $17MM guarantee. The right-hander had a bit of an inconsistent tenure in Philadelphia, but he was effective on the whole and is coming off a nice season. He fanned 31.6% of opposing hitters and induced ground-balls at a solid 47.1% clip last year. He also doesn’t have particularly marked platoon splits throughout his career. Neris has been better against same-handed opponents (.208/.272/.373), but he’s also managed solid production against southpaws (.231/.324/.387).

That’s of particular importance for a Houston team that lost lefty Brooks Raley to free agency. Blake Taylor and rookie Parker Mushinski are the only left-handers in the late innings mix for Baker. Houston signed veterans Zac Rosscup and Adam Morgan to minor league deals as insurance, but it’s not a great group of southpaws overall. With righties like Neris, Ryne Stanek and Phil Maton having had success against lefties in the past, general manager James Click and his staff elected not to invest in another lefty arm.

Those players will all bridge the gap to All-Star closer Ryan Pressly, who has been one of the sport’s top late-inning weapons over the past four years. The Astros rewarded him for that run of success with a Spring Training extension that guarantees $30MM through 2024 and stops him from hitting the open market at the end of this season, when his contract had originally been set to expire. The deal, which also contains a 2025 vesting option, keeps a key bullpen piece around for the next few years, during which the team should remain a contender.

That’s a testament to the strength of both Houston’s young starting pitching and their across-the-board excellence in the lineup. Click and his staff didn’t have to make many changes to the position player group. Martín Maldonado and Jason Castro are back as the catching tandem, freeing Houston up to deal third catcher Garrett Stubbs to the Phillies in a minor trade. That’s not a great offensive duo, but both veteran backstops are highly-regarded defenders.

The Astros can afford to live with lackluster hitting behind the dish because of the strength of the lineup elsewhere. Gurriel is back at first base, José Altuve is at the keystone, and Alex Bregman is at third base. Michael Brantley and Kyle Tucker make for one of the top corner outfield pairings in the game. Yordan Álvarez can rotate into the corner outfield while continuing to mash as the designated hitter. The Astros don’t have household names in center field, but even there, they’re well-positioned.

Chas McCormick, José Siri and Jake Meyers all had strong rookie showings last year, performing well enough that Houston felt comfortable dealing Myles Straw to Cleveland at the deadline to bring in Maton. None of McCormick, Siri or Meyers (the latter of whom is currently on the injured list after undergoing shoulder surgery) would rule the Astros out from landing a star. Houston has inquired about Bryan Reynolds and reportedly touched base with Starling Marte’s camp in free agency. Center field isn’t a dire need, though, and the Astros felt comfortable rolling into the season with their internal options after not landing a marquee name.

That, of course, brings us to the one spot on the diamond where the Astros were faced with their biggest decision: whether to bring back Correa on a free agent megadeal. At the outset of the offseason, Houston presented the star shortstop with a five-year, $160MM offer. That never seemed likely to get Correa’s attention, and it looked as if he’d wind up departing. Yet Correa’s stay on the open market lingered unexpectedly, with a mid-lockout agency switch to the Boras Corporation perhaps contributing to the signing delay for free agency’s top player.

Once the lockout was lifted and Spring Training got underway, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported the Astros were set to make Correa a new offer. That generated some speculation the two-time All-Star could return to Houston after all, but that proved not to be. Correa eventually signed an opt-out laden three-year, $105.3MM deal with the Twins. That wasn’t the long-term commitment most had expected for the 27-year-old, but he received the second-largest average annual salary for a position player in MLB history and an opportunity to test the market again next winter.

Precisely what the Astros put on the table at the end is unclear, although Scott Boras told Joel Sherman of the New York Post that Houston wouldn’t go beyond five years. By the time Correa agreed to terms with Minnesota, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Javier Báez had all long since signed elsewhere. That left Trevor Story as the lone top free agent shortstop remaining.

The Astros were tied to Story throughout the winter, and they reengaged with his camp late in the process. Sherman tweeted that Houston and the Giants were among the three finalists for the former Rockies star, but he ultimately landed in Boston on a six-year deal. Once Story inked his $140MM pact with the Red Sox, it became clear top prospect Jeremy Peña was going to take the reins in Houston.

Peña has started 11 of the team’s first 12 games at the position. A gifted defender, he entered the season with just 30 games above A-ball after missing most of last year on the injured list. Peña has been fantastic in his first couple weeks in the majors, and the Astros would obviously love if he takes the job and runs with it. Houston has bat-first veteran Aledmys Díaz on hand, and they also inked former Tigers utilityman Niko Goodrum to a one-year deal to add depth at multiple spots around the diamond. Detroit non-tendered Goodrum after a second consecutive poor offensive season, but he was a capable player on both sides of the ball in 2018-19 and makes for a fine add to the bench.

Losing Correa is unquestionably a blow, and the Astros could face stiffer competition from the Mariners and Angels this year than they have in recent seasons. Yet the departure of their star shortstop alone won’t be enough to knock Houston from the ranks of the AL favorites, particularly if Peña can step right in as an above-average player in his own right. The Astros didn’t make many big additions last offseason, but they didn’t need to. The bulk of the group that has led five straight playoff runs is still around, and the window remains wide open for Houston to make another run at a World Series.

Offseason In Review: Boston Red Sox

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Chaim Bloom stuck to his playbook for most of the offseason, before finally making a surprising splash on one of the last remaining marquee free agents.

Major League Signings

  • Trevor Story, SS/2B: six years, $140MM (can opt out after four years, but club can negate opt-out by adding seventh year to make it a $160MM total.)
  • James Paxton, SP: one year, $6MM (plus two-year, $26MM club option and $4MM player option, meaning it’s a $10MM guarantee over two years)
  • Jake Diekman, RP: two years, $8MM (includes $4MM club option with $1MM buyout)
  • Michael Wacha, SP/RP: one year, $7MM
  • Rich Hill, SP: one year, $5MM, plus incentives
  • Matt Strahm, RP: one year, $3MM

2022 spending: $45.5MM
Total spending: $173MM

Options Exercised

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • Garrett Whitlock, RP: four years, $18.75MM, plus 2027 club option of $8.25MM with $1MM buyout and 2028 club option of $10.5MM with $500K buyout

Notable Losses

Since taking over the reins in Boston after the 2019 season, the Chaim Bloom regime has been focused on the future. Mookie Betts and David Price were traded to clear payroll and restock the farm. The remainder of that offseason saw the club sign eight players to major league deals, all for a single year. After finishing last in AL East in the shortened 2020 campaign, it was much the same in the next offseason: seven MLB deals, five of them for a single year, with only Enrique Hernandez and Hirokazu Sawamura getting a second. Few prognosticators expected a huge breakout from the Sox in 2021, but it came nonetheless. The club won 92 games, earning a Wild Card spot and eventually playing its way into the ALCS. Would that lead to a more aggressive offseason or more of the cautious tactics of the Bloom era?

Before the offseason began, the Boston sports world was given some very sad news as longtime broadcaster and former player Jerry Remy passed away in late October. A Massachusetts native, Remy started his career with the Angels but was traded to the Red Sox in 1977. He stuck with his hometown team for the remainder of his career, becoming a fan favorite before jumping into the broadcast booth in 1988. He became a fixture of Boston games on NESN and also wrote several books about baseball. Red Sox baseball surely won’t be the same without him.

As the calendar turned to November, the World Series ended and it was time for business. Kyle Schwarber declined his half of a mutual option for 2022, which was a part of his one-year deal he signed with the Nationals. The club declined options on Garrett Richards and Martin Perez, sending them to the open market. Perhaps most important of all, J.D. Martinez decided not to opt out of the final year of his contract, staying with the Sox for one more year, with a salary of $19.35MM. Eduardo Rodriguez received a qualifying offer, which he rejected. Finally, the club exercised its club option on Christian Vazquez, keeping him around for $7MM.

Once the free agency floodgates opened, Boston was reportedly open to a reunion with Schwarber. They were one of the teams who attended the Justin Verlander showcase and among the known suitors for Seiya Suzuki. They also made a multi-year offer to retain Rodriguez and reportedly had interest in fellow southpaws Steven Matz, Robbie Ray and Andrew Heaney. Javier Baez was also a rumored target, as were Jeurys Familia and Marcus Stroman.

Despite the reported interest in those high profile options, most of them signed elsewhere before the lockout. The Red Sox went into the transactions freeze having accomplished more mild maneuvers. They exercised the 2023-23 club option on manager Alex Cora. Michael Wacha and Rich Hill were signed to one-year deals, worth $7MM and $5MM, respectively. James Paxton was signed to a convoluted deal that reflects his uncertain status after undergoing the second Tommy John surgery of his career in April of 2021. He’ll make $6MM in 2022, a season in which he likely won’t join the team until midseason. Then the club will get to decide on a two-year option for the 2023-24 seasons that will pay him $13MM each year. If the team declines, Paxton will have a $4MM player option for 2023.

Just before the lockout kicked in, the club made one more significant move, trading Hunter Renfroe to the Brewers for Jackie Bradley Jr. and a pair of prospects. Bradley was coming off a dismal 2021 season where he slashed .163/.236/.261, 35 wRC+, making it clear this deal was about subtracting from the big league team to build the farm.

It seemed like yet another classic Bloom offseason: modest short-term deals for the big league team while keeping the focus on the future. During the lockout, there were rumors connecting them to Carlos Correa and Trevor Story, though it seemed hard to believe Boston would make such an aggressive move, given their recent history. The $14MM guarantee for Enrique Hernandez was the largest they had given to a free agent since Nathan Eovaldi’s $68MM in late 2018.

After the lockout ended, the modest additions kept coming, with Matt Strahm being the club’s first signing after the transactions freeze lifted. That was followed by Jake Diekman being added to the bullpen. Then it was announced that Chris Sale had a stress fracture in his right rib cage and wouldn’t be available for weeks. Minor league deals were given to Travis Shaw and Hansel Robles, who would both eventually return to Boston’s 40-man roster.

On March 23rd, just two weeks before Opening Day, the big splash finally came. Although the club was also hovering around the Carlos Correa and Freddie Freeman markets, Bloom and his staff broke the mold for Trevor Story. The $140MM guarantee was ten times higher than the largest contract previously given out by this front office regime. The deal also has a complicated structure that could take it to $160MM. Story can opt out after the fourth year of the deal, but the Sox can negate the opt-out by preemptively exercising a $25MM club option for the 2028 season. That option comes with a $5MM buyout that’s already included in the $140MM guarantee, so it’s a net add of $20MM to the life of the contract.

For that significant investment, the Red Sox are getting a player who can provide value on both sides of the ball. Both Story’s offense and defense have been above average for his career. However, there are question marks in both departments. Story slumped at the plate in 2021, finishing exactly league average with a wRC+ of 100. On the defensive side of things, a nagging elbow injury seemed to be impacting his arm strength, as he made 11 throwing errors in 2021, easily the most of his career. As he lingered on the free agent market through the winter, there were some who suggested he would be best suited for a move to second base, as his arm wouldn’t need to be as strong there as at short.

Despite those concerns, he makes a lot of sense for the Red Sox. Plugging Story in at second allows Hernandez to move to the outfield on a full-time basis instead of bouncing back and forth between the two roles. Secondly, the club has a potential hole at shortstop looming over the horizon, as Xander Bogaerts can opt out of the final three years of his contract after the 2022 campaign. Barring some catastrophic injury, that seems quite likely to happen. The club can use this season to evaluate Story and his arm strength before deciding how to proceed with their middle infield. If Story is deemed capable of returning to the left side of the diamond, then they can let Bogaerts walk. If not, they can try to re-sign him or turn their attentions to one of the other available shortstops in this winter’s class. (Trea Turner and Dansby Swanson will be there, and they’ll more than likely be joined by Correa, who has an opt-out in his deal with the Twins.)

There is a financial element at play in all of this also, as the Story deal has pushed the Red Sox beyond the luxury tax line for the first time since Betts and Price were sent to L.A. Their luxury tax number is currently sitting just under $239MM, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. Under the new CBA, the lowest tier of the luxury tax system begins at $230MM.

That won’t lead to a huge financial penalty, since the Red Sox would be a “first time” payor and only responsible for a 20% tax on spending between $230MM and $250MM. In this case, the tax would be around $1.7MM. However, even a small overage can have compounding effects, as the penalties increase for team’s that pay the tax in consecutive years. For instance, the Padres went just barely over the line in 2021 and paid a $1.29MM tax bill. However, they then seemed determined to not cross the line again in 2022, spending much of their offseason trying to move Eric Hosmer’s contract and not upgrading in the outfield corners despite a bevy of available free agents.

For the Red Sox, it’s possible that they’re not so worried about crossing the tax line for a second consecutive year due to the fact that they have a lot of money coming off the books after this season. Martinez ($19.375MM), Nathan Eovaldi ($17MM), Vazquez ($7MM), Hernandez ($8MM), Wacha ($7MM), Hill ($5MM), Strahm ($3MM), Robles ($2.25MM), Kevin Plawecki ($2.25MM) and Shaw ($1.5MM) are all in the final years of their respective deals, accounting for $72.375MM coming straight off the books. If Bogaerts opts out, that’s another $20MM. Bradley has a $12MM mutual option for 2023 that has an $8MM buyout. Sawamura also has a complicated option for 2023 that could see him hit free agency. (The Red Sox hold a club option valued at $3-4MM depending on performance escalators and milestones. Should they decline their half, Sawamura would have a player option valued between $600K and $2.2MM.) There’s also the aforementioned Paxton situation.

Complications aside, the club will have somewhere between $72.375MM and around $100MM coming off the ledger in a few months. Of course, that also means that they will have plenty of holes to fill, but the club is surely hoping to fill as many as possible in-house so that they don’t need to go back out and spend over the CBT line again next year. Bogaerts could be replaced by Story. Martinez’s bat could be replaced by Triston Casas emerging and joining Bobby Dalbec in the first base/designated hitter mix. Eovaldi, Wacha and Hill departing will strip the rotation down to Chris Sale, Nick Pivetta and Tanner Houck, but Paxton could potentially take one spot, with youngsters like Kutter Crawford or Connor Seabold maybe taking another. Hernandez and Bradley being subtracted from the outfield creates a couple of holes, but maybe Jarren Duran can take a step forward this year.

As Spring Training wound down, the club agreed to an extension with Garrett Whitlock — another future rotation candidate. However, the Sox failed to do so with Bogaerts, Eovaldi or Rafael Devers. It’s possible for a huge amount of roster turnover a year from now, and that’s only the beginning of the uncertainty facing the team. The club is in a stacked AL East where any of the four non-Baltimore teams could be seen as the frontrunner or the fourth-best.

The Red Sox are facing a few months with dozens of potential outcomes, both on the field and off. They could fall out of contention and trade away some of their expiring contracts, thus ducking back below the CBT line. But it’s also possible they’ve cobbled together a squad that can hang with the other contenders in the division, just like they did last year. Either way, a handful of guys will likely be wearing a different uniform next year. Martinez, Eovaldi and Bogaerts would all be qualifying offer candidates, but the QO system could be scrapped if MLB and the MLBPA can agree to an international draft framework before this summer. There’s no shortage of uncertainty around this Red Sox roster, in what figures to be yet another wild year in the AL East.

Offseason In Review: Milwaukee Brewers

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The Brewers went into the offseason with a strong team, but on the pitching heavy side. They spent their offseason trying to add more pop to the lineup without spending much money.

Major League Signings

2022 spending: $12.9MM
Total spending: $12.9MM

Options Exercised

  • OF Jackie Bradley Jr. exercised $9.5MM player option; later traded to Red Sox
  • OF Avisail Garcia declined his end of $12MM mutual option in favor of $2MM buyout

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

The Brewers had an excellent regular season in 2021, going 95-67, winning the NL Central and making the postseason for a fourth straight year. However, they did it in a very slanted way, dominating on the hill but not hitting much. The pitching staff had an ERA of 3.50, third best in the majors, trailing only the Dodgers and Giants. The rotation had a dominant front three of Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta, along with solid contributions at the back end from Eric Lauer, Adrian Houser and Brett Anderson. The bullpen featured excellent hurlers like Josh Hader, Devin Williams and Brad Boxberger.

However, the offense wasn’t nearly as impressive. The team’s overall batting line was .233/.317/.396, producing a wRC+ of 91, or 9% below average, 23rd out of the 30 teams. This uneven attack was on display in the playoffs, when the Brewers faced off against the Braves. Milwaukee eked out the first game with a 2-1 victory, thanks to six shutout innings from Corbin Burnes. But they lost the next three games by scores of 3-0, 3-0 and 5-4. It’s tough for a dominant pitching staff to carry a team with six runs of support over four games. With Avisail Garcia, Eduardo Escobar, and Manny Pina heading into free agency at season’s end, there would be work to do in the offseason just to break even.

Of course, there wasn’t going to be a mountain of money to work with, as the Brewers have never been a high payroll team. Up until a few years ago, their highest Opening Day payroll was $104MM. They shot up to $123MM in 2019 but then back down to $99MM for 2021. (Figures from Cot’s Baseball Contracts.) The club’s president of baseball operations David Stearns has still managed to field competitive teams despite these limitations, which is why he’s attracted the attention of rival teams.

Early in the offseason, Stearns seemed to be a popular target of the Mets, as they looked to hire a new general manager or president. It was thought that there would be a chance the Brewers would let Stearns, a New York native, pursue the opportunity due to the fact that 2022 is the last year of his current contract. However, reports emerged in October that Stearns may have a vesting option for 2023. Whether that was a factor or not, the Brewers denied the Mets permission to interview Stearns for the job that eventually went to Billy Eppler. Further clarity on the contract situation came in February, when it was reported that Stearns is actually under control through 2023 but can opt out after this year if the Brewers win the National League pennant.

As the offseason began and business kicked off, the Brewers signed Trevor Gott to a split deal to bolster their relief corps. Jackie Bradley Jr. exercised his player option. Avisail Garcia declined his $12MM mutual option, taking the $2MM buyout and hitting free agency. The Brewers had a chance to issue a qualifying offer to Garcia but ultimately decided against it. He would later sign with the Marlins on a four-year, $53MM contract, with the Brewers getting nothing in return.

In mid-November, the Brewers swung a trade, acquiring Mike Brosseau from the Rays in exchange for minor-league pitcher Evan Reifert. The utilityman had shown some potential in his first couple of seasons, hitting .284/.343/.500 over 240 plate appearances in 2019-20 while playing all over the diamond. He slid from that level in 2021, ending up with a line of .187/.266/.347, 73 wRC+. Still, the prospect cost was minimal and Brosseau hasn’t yet reached arbitration. If he can bounce back to anywhere near his earlier production, he could be a bargain. With a projected infield of Willy Adames, Luis Urias (who wound opening the season in the injured list), Kolten Wong and Rowdy Tellez, along with a projected outfield of Christian Yelich, Lorenzo Cain, Jackie Bradley Jr. and Tyrone Taylor, Brosseau would slot into the bench/utility mix with Jace Peterson.

After Manny Pina signed with the Braves, the Brew Crew needed to find a new catcher to pair with Omar Narvaez. They settled on Pedro Severino but he was suspended for 80 games after testing positive for the performance-enhancing substance Clomiphene. With just days until Opening Day, the club quickly pivoted and acquired both Victor Caratini and Alex Jackson to improve the depth behind the plate. Caratini showed some potential with the bat when he popped 11 homers in 2019 but fell off in the following two campaigns. With a $2MM arbitration salary and an additional year of team control, he’s another low-cost flier for the club.

Just before the lockout was set to kick in, the Brewers traded Bradley and a couple of prospects to the Red Sox for Hunter Renfroe. This served Milwaukee’s needs in a couple of ways. First, Bradley is making $9.5MM in 2022 and had a dismal season at the plate the year before. In 2021, he hit .163/.236/.261, with his 35 wRC+ being easily the worst in baseball among hitters with at least 400 plate appearances. (Kevin Newman’s 54 was next on the list). Renfroe was arbitration-eligible and eventually settled with the Brewers at $7.65MM, meaning he’ll be cheaper than Bradley and more productive with the bat. He hit .259/.315/.501 for the Red Sox last year, putting up a wRC+ of 114.

After the lockout, the club’s first move was to re-sign Brad Boxberger, returning him to a high-leverage role in the bullpen with Hader and Williams. The righty threw 64 2/3 innings in 2021, with a 3.34 ERA and 31.2% strikeout rate. Milwaukee also added veteran righty Jose Urena on a minor league deal and selected him to the big league club the next day. Urena, who can’t be optioned to the minor leagues, is on hand as a multi-inning relief option.

They then made their biggest signing of the offseason, adding 35-year-old Andrew McCutchen on a one-year, $8.5MM deal. McCutchen’s days of elite outfield defense are behind him, but he can still hit. Over the past two seasons, his slash line is .232/.331/.441, 106 wRC+. But he was especially effective against lefties, with a line of .290/.402/.603 in 2020-21, producing a wRC+ of 164.

While McCutchen is still a fine player, there were plenty of younger and more productive outfield options available in free agency this winter. Kris Bryant, Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber, Starling Marte, Seiya Suzuki, Jorge Soler, Mark Canha, Michael Conforto (still unsigned), Eddie Rosario and others were all available. In the end, the Brewers avoided any big or lengthy commitments, settling on an Opening Day payroll of $132MM, a new franchise record but still in the bottom half of the league.

Milwaukee didn’t need to do much on the pitching side of things. Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Lauer and Houser all remained under club control. Top prospect Aaron Ashby is ready to replace Anderson — who hit free agency — as the top depth option for the starting staff. Milwaukee brought Boxberger back and never seemed to seriously consider dealing Hader even as his arbitration price continued to rise. The Brew Crew’s elite arms are back.

On the other side of the ball, Garcia, Escobar, Pina, Daniel Vogelbach (whom the club non-tendered) and Jackie Bradley Jr. have been replaced by Renfroe, McCutchen, Brosseau and Caratini. Whether those moves have improved the offense enough can be debated. What would certainly help is if some of the holdovers could have better results. Christian Yelich was mediocre in the past two seasons, when compared to his 2018-19 peak. Lorenzo Cain had three mostly lost years from 2019-21. Keston Hiura has failed to deliver since his exciting 2019 debut. The Brewers enter 2022 as a pitching-oriented team, but their chances of making a deep playoff run would be greatly enhanced if they can coax returns to form from some of those players.

Offseason In Review: Chicago White Sox

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The White Sox filled their right field vacancy by making a long-awaited Craig Kimbrel trade, otherwise focusing on signing Kimbrel’s replacements rather than compensating for the departure of Carlos Rodon.

Major League Signings

Options Exercised

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

After a disappointing ALDS loss to the Astros, the White Sox kicked off their offseason by exercising their hefty $16MM option on reliever Craig Kimbrel.  The righty had struggled after a crosstown trade in which the Sox paid the high price of Nick Madrigal and Codi Heuer.  The White Sox seemed intent on trading Kimbrel all along, and at the time their choice on the option seemed related to having given up Madrigal for him.  As I wrote in December, “[White Sox GM Rick] Hahn has gambled that whatever he gets back will be better than just paying the $1MM buyout on Kimbrel and spending the money in free agency.”

At the time it needed to be made, the Kimbrel decision involved some financial risk for a club that has never been willing to run a payroll near the first competitive balance tax threshold.  Days later, in what seemed a related choice payroll-wise, the White Sox declined to issue a one-year, $18.4MM qualifying offer to lefty Carlos Rodon.

Especially with the benefit of hindsight that the White Sox would make no major commitments to their rotation, the Rodon decision must be read as the club thinking that the southpaw accepting the qualifying offer would have been a bad thing.  It’s hard to say whether Rodon would have accepted.  He was one of the game’s best pitchers through mid-July last year, but lost velocity and was handled carefully after that due to shoulder issues.  Rodon went on to sign a two-year, $44MM deal after the lockout with the Giants that allows him to opt out after the first year if he reaches 110 innings.  Rodon’s market would have been different if he had a qualifying offer attached, due to draft pick forfeiture.

In granting righty Lance Lynn a two-year, $38MM extension last July – similar to the contract Rodon would eventually sign – it might be that the White Sox felt they could choose only one of their 2021 aces.  That’s only true in that owner Jerry Reinsdorf decided not to set a payroll that would accommodate both.  So, the White Sox received no compensation for Rodon’s departure, while Lynn had knee surgery earlier this month and isn’t expected to make his season debut before his 35th birthday on May 12th.  The second half of the season will determine whether the White Sox made the right bet: Lynn will be a big factor in Chicago’s rotation, and we’ll learn whether Rodon holds up all year.

According to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, the White Sox showed “strong interest” in Justin Verlander before he reached an agreement to re-sign with the Astros on November 17th.  That would’ve been a reasonable way to fill Rodon’s shoes, but competition for Verlander was fierce and the Astros were at the top of his list.  Most other top free agent starting pitchers signed prior to the lockout as well, and the White Sox weren’t rumored to be interested in them.

Otherwise, the White Sox made a pair of free agent strikes before the December 2 lockout.  They gave out a pair of decent-sized three-year deals, adding setup man Kendall Graveman and retaining super-utility man Leury Garcia.  The Graveman signing laid groundwork for the eventual Kimbrel trade, ensuring the team would remain strong in the late innings behind top closer Liam Hendriks.  Garcia garnered a larger commitment than expected, but would end up as part of the team’s second base solution.

Rick Hahn’s first post-lockout move was to finish off that second base combo with the signing of Josh Harrison.  Through nine games of the season, manager Tony La Russa has split second base time evenly between Garcia and Harrison.  Harrison is a righty batter with a modest platoon split, with a 113 wRC+ against southpaws from 2020-21.  Garcia, a switch-hitter, is also better against lefties.  From 2019-21, Garcia and Harrison sport identical 83 wRC+ marks against right-handed pitching.  So for the 70% of the time a righty pitcher is on the hill, the White Sox figure to have a fairly easy out coming from the second base position in the lineup.

On the same day as the Harrison signing, the White Sox somewhat surprisingly moved to further bolster their bullpen with the signing of Joe Kelly.  Not only was the team surprising given Chicago’s existing bullpen commitments, but Kelly had exited Game 5 of the NLCS with biceps tightness and still secured a strong commitment.  His White Sox debut has been delayed by at least a couple of weeks due to the injury.  When Kelly is healthy, he, Graveman, and Aaron Bummer can form a very strong bridge to Hendriks.

After the lockout, the White Sox added only back-end starting pitchers to cover for the loss of Rodon and ineffectiveness of Dallas Keuchel, as Lynn had not yet gotten injured.  Vince Velasquez, 29, has longstanding control issues that pitching coach Ethan Katz will attempt to solve.  Johnny Cueto, meanwhile, can be a source of veteran innings.  The White Sox can still plan a hopeful playoff rotation of Lucas Giolito, Lynn, Dylan Cease, and Michael Kopech.  While their depth to cover April injuries to Lynn and Giolito isn’t impressive, if everyone is healthy this will be a fearsome rotation.

The White Sox made efforts to trade for Sean Manaea or Frankie Montas, and Montas remains available.  According to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, the Sox “nearly acquired” Manaea from the A’s before the Padres closed the deal.  Nightengale suggests the A’s have sought Andrew Vaughn from the White Sox for Montas.  If nothing else, these rumors suggest the White Sox know they’re a bit short on pitching depth, especially with Keuchel’s struggles last year and Kopech’s likely innings limit.

On April 1st, the White Sox finally found a match for Kimbrel, sending him to the Dodgers for AJ Pollock.  This was a strong move for the White Sox, vindicating their decision to exercise Kimbrel’s option.  In the 34-year-old Pollock, the White Sox effectively fill their right field vacancy with a player who posted a 135 wRC+ over 632 plate appearances from 2020-21.  Pollock’s injury history suggests he’s good for about 115 games per year, so the Sox will be covering his absences with Adam Engel and Vaughn.  The White Sox can’t exactly time when Pollock will get hurt, but the goal will be to have him active for the playoffs.  The Sox also completed a smaller swap with the Collins-McGuire deal, improving their defense at the backup catcher position.

With Yasmani Grandal behind the plate, Jose Abreu at first base, Tim Anderson at shortstop, Yoan Moncada at third, Eloy Jimenez in left, and Luis Robert in center, the White Sox came into the offseason with a strong core of hitters.  Pollock only deepens that mix.  Vaughn, the third overall draft pick in 2019, should bounce around between the outfield corners, first base, and DH depending on the team’s needs.  Anderson is under team control through 2024, Moncada through ’25, Jimenez and Vaughn through ’26, and Robert through ’27.

In the aggregate, the White Sox didn’t necessarily do much to improve upon last year’s 93-win team.  When Pollock is healthy, they’ll clearly be better in right field, and the team won’t have to play Vaughn at an outfield corner.  Second base is mostly a wash.  They covered the losses of Kimbrel and Ryan Tepera with Graveman and Kelly, but also lost Garrett Crochet to Tommy John surgery.  The rotation is worse off for the loss of Rodon, but Kopech and/or a future trade might fill much of that void.  But maybe this was enough – the White Sox remain the clear favorite in the AL Central, and Tony La Russa’s crew is a credible threat to win the World Series in 2022.

Offseason In Review: Atlanta Braves

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The Braves are coming off a World Series title, but they didn’t merely attempt to run it back with last year’s roster. Instead, they allowed one of the faces of the franchise to depart in free agency. In his place, they acquired a hometown star whom they quickly signed to an extension. They also fortified the late innings by adding a few of the best relievers on the open market as they attempt to repeat.

Major League Signings

Total spend: $62.15MM

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Notable Losses

Freddie Freeman, Jorge Soler, Joc Pederson, Drew Smyly, Jesse Chavez, Chris Martin, Ehire Adrianza, Johan Camargo, Abraham Almonte, Stephen Vogt, Richard Rodriguez, Edgar Santana, Josh Tomlin, Terrance Gore, Grant Dayton

Coming off the club’s first World Series title since 1995, the Braves figured prominently in the hot stove season, if not quite as predicted. Despite a widespread (if dwindling) industry consensus that franchise cornerstone Freddie Freeman – the lone holdover from the period preceding the rebuild that followed its 2014 second-half collapse – would ultimately return to Atlanta, GM Alex Anthopoulos acted quickly when the lockout lifted, sending four prospects to the A’s for Matt Olson and signing him to a club-record eight-year, $168MM contract less than a day later.

Upsetting as the move may have been for Braves fans used to Freeman smiling and hugging his way through the Atlanta summer, Olson is one of a very small handful of first basemen capable of replacing the new Dodger’s ample production. From 2019 to 2021 (a period that includes Freeman’s monster 60-game MVP run in 2020), the Braves’ erstwhile face of the franchise compiled an elite .304/.402/.544 batting line, while his replacement put together a strong (if less eye-popping) .257/.354/.522 triple-slash. A closer look at the pair’s respective batted ball numbers suggest that Olson likely possesses a bit more power (he homered in 6.1% of his plate appearances over the same period, compared to Freeman’s 5%) if a bit less command of the strike zone (striking out 22.4% and walking 11.8% of the time compared to 16.4% and 13.2% for Freeman).

While the loss of a franchise stalwart could have downstream effects beyond questions of on-field performance, a closer look suggests Olson’s deal might actually offer the Braves more per-dollar value than Freeman likely would have had the club accepted either of the proposals reportedly put forward by his agent (per Buster Olney of ESPN): $175MM over six years or $165MM over five – or, for that matter, the six-year, $162MM pact he ultimately signed with the Dodgers. OPS+ (a park-adjusted metric that accounts for the fact that Freeman played his home games at roughly neutral Truist Park while Olson toiled in the pitcher-friendly confines of the Oakland Coliseum) gives Freeman only a slight edge (143 to 139) over the 2019-2021 period, with Olson’s 153 2021 mark solidly outpacing Freeman’s 134. Adding to the mix Olson’s superior defense – the 2021 Fielding Bible Awards ranked Olson second (to Paul Goldschmidt) and Freeman eighth – and the fact that he’s four years younger than Freeman makes the case for the long-term superiority of the former Athletic perfectly sound.

And though the question of Freeman’s future has clearly loomed largest in Anthopoulos’ mind since November, first base was hardly the only position at which the Braves began the offseason in flux. Indeed, of the four outfielders the Atlanta GM acquired ahead of the 2021 trade deadline (Joc Pederson, Adam Duvall, Jorge Soler, and Eddie Rosario), only Duvall (whom the Braves had non-tendered only a few months prior) came with any control beyond the season’s final two months. Both Soler (who got a three-year, $36MM deal with the Marlins) and Pederson (one-year, $6MM with the Giants) ultimately signed elsewhere, but the defending champs brought back Rosario –something of a folk hero in Atlanta after his MVP performance in the 2021 NLCS felled the Dodgers almost single-handedly – on a two-year, $18MM commitment, with a buyout-free $9MM option for 2024.

Anthopoulos reportedly maintained interest in Soler (the 2021 World Series MVP) even after re-signing Rosario, but the presence of Marcell Ozuna – who signed a four-year, $65MM deal ahead of the 2021 campaign but spent most of the season on administrative leave following a May  domestic violence arrest – always suggested that Soler, who has a similar profile on both sides of the ball, was unlikely to be more than a rental. Ozuna has spent the early portion of 2022 alongside Duvall and Rosario in the outfield, but he’ll likely return to the DH role that he occupied for most of his dominant 2020 campaign following the return of Ronald Acuña Jr. from knee surgery, which is expected in late April or early May.

Whether Acuña plays right or center field upon his return remains to be seen. Duvall, who played center through the Braves’ 2021 playoff run but often gave way to Guillermo Heredia late in games, opens the season in center, but he’s a career corner outfielder (if a very good one). Heredia remains on the roster as the club’s fourth outfielder, but the departure of Cristian Pache (possibly a perennial Gold Glover if he can hit enough to stick in the bigs) in the Olson deal leaves Acuña – whom the Braves had previously seemed intent on penciling into right field for years to come – as the most plausible center fielder on the roster. This could change, of course, should either of the Braves’ top outfield prospects – Michael Harris and Drew Waters – force his way to the bigs at some point in 2022.

Beyond Olson and Rosario, though, the Braves didn’t do much to bolster an offense that ranked 13th in wRC+ in 2021, reportedly kicking the tires on Carlos Correa but ultimately adding only backstop Manny Piña (on a two-year, $8MM deal) to be Travis d’Arnaud’s deputy and outfielder Alex Dickerson (1-year, $1MM) to DH until Acuña’s return and offer some punch off the bench thereafter. (Dickerson’s deal was initially non-guaranteed, but he has since made the team.) Even so, they’ll hope for improvement in production from Ozuna’s return to action (and return to form after a disappointing start in 2021) and roughly 120 games from a healthy Acuña, as well as a deeper catching unit that won’t require manager Brian Snitker to give significant at-bats to Kevan Smith, Jonathan Lucroy, and Jeff Mathis should d’Arnaud suffer another injury like the torn thumb ligament that sidelined him for the bulk of 2021.

The Braves will also hope for continued production from what’s arguably one of the game’s best infields. Third baseman Austin Riley, who rebounded spectacularly from a mediocre showing in 2020 and an ice-cold start to 2021 to the point that he garnered a number of down-ballot MVP votes, could emerge as a force to be reckoned with in the middle of the Braves’ order. The double-play combination of Dansby Swanson (an impending free agent) and Ozzie Albies (under club control through 2027 for far less than market rate) provides substantial up-the-middle power potential (Swanson slugged at a .449 clip in 2021, Albies .488) if a bit less in the way of on-base rate (Swanson notched a .311 OBP in 2021, Albies .310) than might be desired.

On the pitching staff, Anthopoulos opted to stand pat in the rotation – Max Fried, Charlie Morton, and Ian Anderson anchor a group that opens the season with Huascar Ynoa and Kyle Wright in the fourth and fifth slots – but added substantial talent to a bullpen that had already proven itself capable of October dominance. He added Kirby Yates (expected to return around the All-Star break after undergoing Tommy John surgery in March 2021) on a two-year, $8.25MM pact ahead of the lockout and the versatile Collin McHugh for two years and $10MM shortly after it was lifted, as well as Tyler Thornburg on a non-guaranteed one-year deal and Darren O’Day on a minor-league deal (both have since made the team).

But the most surprising development came shortly after the open of Spring Training when longtime Dodger Kenley Jansen signed a one-year, $16MM deal to displace lefty Will Smith in the closer role. News of Luke Jackson’s season-ending arm injury (he’s since undergone Tommy John surgery) dampens expectations, but only minimally. Alongside the incumbent ‘Night Shift’ (a coinage of lefty Tyler Matzek to describe himself and fellow high-leverage arms Jackson, Smith, and A.J. Minter during the 2021 playoffs), Yates, McHugh, and Jansen give the Braves a strong case for the game’s best ’pen, even without Jackson in the fold.

As deep as the Atlanta bullpen looks on paper, though, the rotation appears comparatively thin. After losing Drew Smyly (who received a one-year, $5.25MM guarantee from the Cubs), Anthopoulos likely looked for a veteran innings-eater but evidently came up empty. Fried, Morton, and Anderson form a solid core, while either or both of Ynoa (who looked like the Braves’ best starter early in 2021 before breaking his hand punching the dugout in Milwaukee) and Wright (who’s lost much of his high-end prospect luster but dominated Triple-A in 2021 and turned in a crucial performance in long relief in Game 4 of the World Series) could settle into a spot in rotation.

Should any of this bunch succumb to injury or ineffectiveness, though, the Braves would be forced to turn to a stable of high-upside but unproven arms that includes Kyle Muller, Tucker Davidson, Bryce Elder, Touki Toussaint, and Spencer Strider. They’ll also hope for the return of Mike Soroka (who ruptured his Achilles tendon in his second start of the 2020 season before re-tearing the ligament while walking in the Braves’ clubhouse) at some point, but no one will be quite sure what to expect from the onetime ace-in-waiting after such a long layoff and a pair of career-threatening surgeries.

There’s a reason no team has repeated as World Series champs since the Yankees’ three-peat from 1998 to 2000, and the 2021 Braves – who didn’t spend a day over .500 until early August – were almost certainly not the ‘best’ team in baseball before they captured a virulent strain of October magic that will live in Atlanta sports lore for generations to come. And even after finishing second in attendance in 2021 and reporting a substantial revenue increase in October, corporate ownership group Liberty Media appears to have signed off on only a relatively modest payroll increase, pushing the Braves into the upper third of payrolls but well shy of the luxury tax threshold. Still, there’s a solid argument that the 2022 Braves could be a stronger overall club than their 2021 counterparts – particularly if they can stay healthy. The NL East should be much improved, but this year’s Braves team looks just as equipped as last season’s to make a deep run.

Offseason In Review: Oakland Athletics

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Even before general manager David Forst kicked off the offseason by acknowledging a need to listen to trade offers on his core players, a large-scale teardown wasn’t hard to see coming. The A’s spent the bulk of the winter in trade talks that resulted in four fan favorites being dealt for prospects, and the lack of subsequent moves to reallocate the money they saved further underscores that this is a team looking at 2023 and beyond.

Major League Signings

Option Decisions

Trades and Claims

Extensions

None

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

The “Notable Losses” section of the introduction to this review would be a better foundation for a roster than several teams throughout the league currently have — Oakland among them. Heading into the offseason, the A’s had the option of paying their core arbitration class a projected $53.7MM, adding that to the guaranteed salaries of Elvis Andrus ($7.75MM, when including cash received from the Rangers) and Stephen Piscotty ($7.25MM) and then rounding out the roster with pre-arb players and whatever offseason additions they might’ve seen fit to add.

Surrounding the group of Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, Frankie Montas, Ramon Laureano, Tony Kemp, Lou Trivino, Chad Pinder, Deolis Guerra, Andrus and Piscotty with pre-arbitration players would’ve left the A’s with a payroll in the $80-85MM range — a stone’s throw from 2019’s franchise-record Opening Day mark of $92.2MM. A’s ownership instead opted to tear it down and let longtime manager Bob Melvin depart for a three-year deal to manage the Padres.

From a big-picture standpoint, it’s easy enough to take each transaction in isolation and more or less see the merit behind it. Nine of the Athletics’ top 30 prospects at MLB.com came over by way of this quartet of trades, including half of their top ten. It’s a similar story at Baseball America and FanGraphs. Oakland’s farm system was generally bereft of high-end talent, save for a few names, and while no one is going to suddenly crown them the best minor league system in MLB, their farm is unequivocally improved. For a team that typically operates with notable payroll constraints, a deep farm is vital.

On the other hand, this is an A’s team that has gone 313-233 over the past four seasons — a .573 winning percentage that has kept them squarely in contention. The loss of Starling Marte and Mark Canha in free agency would’ve stung and left Oakland with some work to do in the outfield, particularly with Ramon Laureano suspended for the first month of the season. However, the infield, catching corps and rotation would’ve all been in fine shape. The bullpen and outfield, the two areas that would’ve needed the most attention, are typically deep in relative bargain options, and that was true this winter as well.

What’s done is done, however, and the A’s opted for the long-term approach. The trade of Olson brought Oakland a near-MLB-ready outfielder in Cristian Pache, who was given the nod as the team’s Opening Day center fielder. Pache and touted catching prospect Shea Langeliers could both be regulars in the Oakland lineup in the near future — depending on what happens with current catcher Sean Murphy — whereas pitchers Ryan Cusick and Joey Estes add a pair of interesting arms to the lower levels of the system. Cusick, in particular, is of interest given that he was Atlanta’s top draft pick just last summer.

He’s not the only 2021 first-rounder acquired by the A’s, though, as righty Gunnar Hoglund headlined the return for Chapman. Hoglund might’ve been a top-10 pick and the second college arm off the board had he not undergone Tommy John surgery during his junior season at Ole Miss. The Jays were happy to scoop him up with the No. 19 pick, and the A’s are surely all the more pleased to add him to their system. Like Cusick and Estes, he’s a ways from big league readiness, but that’s not true of the rest of Oakland’s return. Infielder Kevin Smith broke camp as their Opening Day third baseman, while lefty Kirby Snead is in the big league bullpen. Fellow southpaw Zach Logue received the call to the big leagues just today, and while he profiles mostly as a back-of-the-rotation arm, there’d be plenty of value in securing six years of a fourth starter if he indeed realizes that potential.

Likewise, the Bassitt trade has already produced one big leaguer in the form of righty Adam Oller. He’s not as highly regarded as fellow righty JT Ginn, also acquired from the Mets in that Bassitt swap, but he’ll give the club a rotation candidate to evaluate in 2022 and beyond. Ginn, meanwhile, is now ranked as the A’s top pitching prospect (fourth in the organization overall) at Baseball America.

Following the trades of Bassitt, Olson and Chapman — each of which happened in fairly rapid succession — all eyes turned to Manaea and Montas. As a one-year rental, Manaea felt particularly likely to be moved, but the broader focus was on Montas. The hard-throwing righty had just wrapped a career-year in 2021 and, following a declaration from Reds GM Nick Krall that neither Luis Castillo nor Tyler Mahle was expected to be traded, Montas became the undisputed prize of the pitching trade market. He drew interest from virtually every team in need of rotation help, with the Twins, White Sox, Yankees, Royals and several others connected.

Just as it started to appear the A’s would carry both Montas and Manaea to begin the season, however, Oakland struck an agreement to send Manaea to San Diego. In return, they received what many considered a surprisingly light package, landing infield prospect Euribiel Angeles and righty Adrian Martinez. Angeles posted a big .330/.392/.445 line as a 19-year-old against much older competition at two Class-A levels in 2021, and he’s out to a strong start with the A’s High-A club thus far. He’s regarded as the higher-ceiling name of the two, but Martinez posted huge numbers in Double-A last year and has now reached Triple-A. He has a good chance at cracking the Majors this season and, like Logue, could give the A’s a rotation option to consider as soon as this summer.

Suffice it to say, the A’s have considerably bolstered their farm system, though they’ve done so at the cost of any realistic shot of competing in 2022 (and perhaps in 2023 as well). They’ve also set the stage for further trades in the near future. Montas will again be one of the most in-demand names on the market this summer, health permitting, and the A’s will also have center fielder Ramon Laureano, right-hander Lou Trivino and others to peddle as contending clubs look for upgrades.

One name of particular intrigue is young catcher Sean Murphy, who swatted 17 home runs and won a Gold Glove last year — the first of what could be multiple Gold Gloves for the defensive standout. Murphy is controlled three years beyond the current season, but there was at least speculation he could be in play this past winter. With Oakland acquiring Langeliers, who possesses a similar skill set to Murphy but is younger and could be controlled at least six seasons, it’s fair to wonder whether parting with Murphy will now be easier. Add in that Murphy will reach arbitration eligibility next winter and that the Athletics’ top overall prospect is 20-year-old catcher Tyler Soderstrom (the No. 26 pick in 2020) — and it’s all the more feasible that executive vice president Billy Beane and Forst contemplate dealing from their surplus. There’s no urgency to move Murphy, of course, but his name will likely surface at this year’s deadline and, if he’s not moved then, in the offseason.

Beyond that veritable landslide of prospects and young big leaguers, the A’s didn’t do much of anything to strengthen the 2022 roster. The lack of any real spending further solidifies both the fact that this is viewed as a rebuilding year and that payroll concerns were a driving factor behind the trades of Olson, Chapman, Bassitt and Manaea.

That was also true with regards to the departure of Melvin, who had managed the club for ten-plus seasons. The veteran skipper was under contract for 2022, but the A’s allowed him to pursue the San Diego opportunity — reportedly at least partially due to concerns about the $4MM salary he’d been set to receive. Once Melvin departed, Oakland hired third base coach Mark Kotsay as skipper. Kotsay, who signed a three-year deal but whose salary is unreported, gets his first crack at managing after six years on Melvin’s staffs. He’s overseeing a young roster, one that wasn’t much fortified after many of the top players were dealt away.

The only two Major League contracts given out by the A’s were a pair of deals for old friends and fan favorites Jed Lowrie and Stephen Vogt. Lowrie provided league-average offense and poor defense at second base last year, but he’s been a DH and played the corners in his only four games thus far. Vogt hit poorly in 2020-21 with the D-backs and Braves, but he’ll give the team a backup catcher and the fans an old cult favorite to root on in what’ll likely be a lean season.

Perhaps in the end, the Athletics’ latest bevy of trades will ultimately yield a group that turns into their next core. It’s arguable this was a necessary course of action, given the team’s mounting arbitration class, but that’s only the case if fans accept that ownership can’t field a payroll even in the $80-90MM range, which ought to be a tough sell for fans considering all 30 clubs are now receiving upwards of $65MM annually in national television and streaming revenue alone. (That sum does not include local television deals, gate revenue, etc.) As Forst said at the onset of the offseason, “this is our lot in Oakland until it isn’t” — and it seems ownership is pretty content to maintain the status quo.

The A’s can push the company line these trades are necessary for them to compete, but it has long been apparent many of the players who drove their recent run of success would be moved to cut costs. Back in November, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported ownership desired a payroll of $50MM. After making the Manaea deal just four days before Opening Day, the team reached that level. Cot’s Contracts pegs the Athletics’ payroll at $47,953,333. Roster Resource estimates that it’s $49,866,025. According to Cot’s, it’s the second-lowest mark in MLB, ahead of only the Orioles. With that cheaper roster will almost certainly come a worse on-field product than A’s fans have enjoyed of late.

Offseason In Review: St. Louis Cardinals

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The Cardinals brought in some new faces and some old friends, as they look for a 15th straight winning season and fourth consecutive playoff berth.

Major League Signings

2022 spending: $22.2MM
Total spending: $60.7MM

Options Exercised

  • None

Trades and Claims

Extensions

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

Before the offseason even began, a lot had already happened in the world of the Cardinals. Yadier Molina signed a one-year extension in August and then quickly declared that 2022 would be his final season. In September, Nolan Arenado went public with the fact that he would not be opting out of his contract. In October, just a couple of days before the team was about to face the Dodgers in the Wild Card game, they reached a one-year extension with Adam Wainwright, thus keeping in place one of the most consistent batteries in the history of the game. If Wainwright and Molina can start 20 games together this year, they will pass the Tigers battery of Mickey Lolich and Bill Freehan for most in baseball history. (Wainwright, it should be noted, has not announced whether the 2022 campaign will be his last.)

Despite all that continuity, there was one major shakeup, with manager Mike Shildt being fired about a week after the Cards lost to the Dodgers in the Wild Card game. This was quite surprising at the time, as there hadn’t been any indication a change of this nature had been imminent. The Cardinals made the postseason in all three of his full seasons at the helm, and on the heels of last September’s 17-game winning streak, there’d even been talk of a potential extension for Shildt after the season. Within less than two weeks of the firing, the club had replaced him from within, promoting bench coach Oliver Marmol to the job.

As the calendar flipped to November and the World Series ended, awards season began, with the Cardinals becoming the first ever team to win five Gold Gloves, highlighting the tremendous defense that helped them be so successful. This defense would go on to be a central part of their offseason moves. It was even reported recently that the club considered moving in the fences of Busch Stadium to make it more hitter-friendly, but ultimately decided against it as that would negate their defensive advantage. With the position player core almost entirely intact for 2022, their offseason would largely be focused on pitching, as well as the new designated hitter slot.

Less than 24 hours into free agency, the club pounced and re-signed lefty T.J. McFarland. He had a nice season in 2021, throwing 38 2/3 innings with a 2.56 ERA. Though he didn’t strike out many hitters (14.6%), his 63.7% ground-ball rate made him an excellent fit in front of that elite Cardinal infield.

On the starting pitching side, the Cardinals reportedly had interest in players such as Andrew Heaney, Alex Cobb and Nick Martinez, but ultimately agreed to a deal with Steven Matz. His four-year, $44MM guarantee beat MLBTR’s three-year, $27MM projection in both years and average annual value. Matz doesn’t have McFarland’s elite ground-ball numbers, but he’s a bit better than most in that regard. He has a career grounder rate of 47%, and his 45.5% mark in 2021 checked in a couple points ahead of last year’s league-wide average of 42.7%. Matz doesn’t have huge strikeout totals, but he owns a career walk rate of 7.1% and was down to 6.6% in 2021. With that golden defense behind him, it’s possible he could improve upon 2021’s 3.82 ERA, as solid as that was.

The Cards further bolstered their pitching staff after the lockout by signing Drew VerHagen, the first MLB signing after the transactions freeze lifted. He had spent the previous two seasons pitching in Japan and used his sinker to record a 53.9% ground-ball rate in that time, continuing with the offseason’s broader acquisition pattern. Nick Wittgren was then added to the bullpen mix. He isn’t specifically a ground-ball machine, but does have good control. He’s only had a walk rate higher than 7.1% in one of his big league seasons thus far. Aaron Brooks, selected to the roster in late March, fits this profile as well. He spent the past two seasons pitching in Korea, with a mediocre strikeout rate but a minuscule 4.4% walk rate and incredibly posting a ground-ball rate above 75% in both years.

During the lockout, it was reported that the Cardinals had some interest in Colin Moran. Given the likelihood of the universal designated hitter being implemented in the new CBA, Moran made some sense as a left-handed bench/DH option. However, after the lockout ended, Moran signed with the Reds and the Cards landed Corey Dickerson for the job instead. The outfielder had slumped in the shortened 2020 campaign and didn’t have a great start to 2021 with the Marlins, but Dickerson finished well after a midseason trade to the Blue Jays.

The Cards had one final move up their sleeves, a move that might have been small in terms of cost but huge in terms of emotion. Franchise icon Albert Pujols, who spent the best years of his Hall-of-Fame career in St. Louis, headed back to Missouri after a decade in California. Shortly after signing, like Molina, he announced that this would be his last season.

Although Pujols’ productivity slipped during his time with the Angels, the Dodgers picked him up last year and showed he could still be a useful part of a team in a limited role. They tried to mostly send him up to the plate to face left-handed pitching, allowing him to hit .254/.299/.460 as a Dodger, around league average production. His overall work against lefties, a .294/.336/.603 output, further proves that he can still produce in the right role. Pujols will likely serve a similar bench/platoon/DH role with the Cards, but the image of him reuniting with Molina and Wainwright will resonate among Cardinals fans beyond his on-the-field contributions.

In the end, there’s a lot of continuity for the Cardinals. They’ve lost some now-retired veterans like Jon Lester and Andrew Miller, but added in a few fresh arms in Matz, VerHagen, Wittgren and Brooks. Although they’re not marquee names, they have a chance to succeed based on the marriage of their particular skills with what the Cardinals already have in house. With the Pirates deep in a rebuild, the Reds cutting costs and the Cubs retooling, St. Louis seems well-positioned for another strong season in the NL Central. In the past 21 years, they’ve only posted a losing record once (78-84 in 2007), have made the playoffs 15 times and won the World Series twice. Wainwright, Molina and Pujols have been huge contributors in that stretch, and this year will provide at least two members of that trio a chance to put the finishing touches on their legacies and an incredible run of success for the franchise.

Offseason In Review: Cincinnati Reds

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The Reds forecasted a payroll reduction early in the offseason, and a few of the team’s more notable players wound up departing. Cincinnati held off on a full teardown and even added incrementally during Spring Training, but that may not be enough to return to last season’s 83-win level.

Major League Signings

2022 spending: $14.825MM
Total spending: $14.825MM

Option Decisions

Trades and Claims

Extensions

None

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

The Reds were involved in the first notable transaction of the offseason, dealing longtime catcher Tucker Barnhart to the Tigers the afternoon after the World Series ended. That was a fitting precursor for the months to come, as “which other veterans will the Reds move?” became one of the offseason’s defining storylines.

In fairness to the Cincinnati front office, the Barnhart trade was a perfectly defensible one. Twenty-five-year-old Tyler Stephenson was ready for an everyday look behind the dish, and he brings quite a bit more offensive upside to the table than does Barnhart. Reallocating the $7.75MM it’d have cost to keep Barnhart in the fold made sense, and the deal gave the respected veteran a chance to continue playing regularly in Detroit.

Far more concerning than the Barnhart deal itself was the now-famous line general manager Nick Krall dropped in explaining the trade about aligning the team’s payroll to its resources. That hinted at more departures, the next of which came in fairly short order. Cincinnati waived starter Wade Miley on the heels of a 3.37 ERA season, saving themselves the $1MM buyout on a $10MM club option they were evidently set to decline. Even worse for Reds fans, he was claimed by the division-rival Cubs.

With the team in clear cost-cutting mode, attention turned again to the Reds top trio of high-end starting pitchers: Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle and Sonny Gray. It was the second consecutive offseason in which Gray and Castillo, in particular, were involved in trade discussions. Early reports indicated that Gray — the oldest and most expensive — was the likeliest to find himself on the move. No deal transpired before the lockout, but the right-hander was shipped off to the Twins for hard-throwing pitching prospect Chase Petty shortly after transactions resumed.

Petty was selected 26th overall by Minnesota in last summer’s draft. His fastball-slider combination draws plenty of praise, but he’s not without concern about his control and the inherent risk associated with any teenage pitcher. Petty is a legitimate prospect to add to the system, but there’s little doubt Cincinnati had a strong financial motivation for the Gray trade as well.

Shortly after Gray was dealt, Krall went on the record to quash any speculation about the possibility Castillo or Mahle could follow him out of town. Both pitchers have two remaining seasons of club control via arbitration. If the Reds get off to a rough start, they could each be in-demand midseason trade targets (as José Berríos was last summer). For now, though, they’re remaining at the front of the rotation. Castillo began the year on the injured list but could be back by the end of the month.

The Reds kept their top two arms, but they pulled the trigger on a deal that subtracted one of their best bats in another payroll-saving maneuver. Cincinnati sent Jesse Winker to Seattle after the Mariners agreed to take back Eugenio Suárez while assuming the remaining three years and $35MM on the latter’s contract. Suárez’s March 2018 extension had gone south over the past two seasons; relinquishing Winker marked a notable price to pay to get out from under the back end of the deal.

As with the Gray swap, the Winker trade wasn’t a strict salary dump. Cincinnati brought back Brandon Williamson, another hard-throwing pitching prospect. Unlike Petty, Williamson isn’t too far from major league readiness, and he’s landed on the back end of a couple top-100 prospect rankings (No. 83 at Baseball America, No. 100 at MLB.com). The Reds also acquired a second pitching prospect, Connor Phillips, as well as an immediate outfield option in Jake Fraley and a depth arm in the currently-injured Justin Dunn.

Gray, Barnhart, Winker and Miley wound up being the four most notable contributors the Reds affirmatively moved as part of their payroll “alignment.” One could argue that the most impactful departure of all, though, was that of free agent outfielder Nick Castellanos, who inked a nine-figure deal with the Phillies. The Reds were never a threat to re-sign Castellanos, although they did pick up a draft choice as compensation after he rejected a qualifying offer. Winker and Castellanos had made one of the most effective corner outfield pairings last season, at least offensively, leaving fairly significant gaps to plug in the lineup.

Clearly, the Reds’ budgetary limitations were going to keep them from splurging on a replacement for either of those departing sluggers. Krall and his staff instead made a shrewd, low-cost pickup of Tommy Pham late in the spring. The 34-year-old Pham is coming off the worst two seasons of his career, but he’s continued to draw plenty of walks while making his fair share of hard contact. He’ll be hard-pressed to match the production of Winker or Castellanos, but $7.5MM is a reasonable price for a hopeful bounceback from the typically steady veteran in a more hitter-friendly home environment.

Pham and Fraley step into an outfield mix that also includes holdovers Aristides Aquino, Tyler Naquin and Nick Senzel. That’s not a great defensive grouping, but most of those players have capable track records at the plate. It’s certainly not as high-powered an outfield as Cincinnati ran out last year, but it shouldn’t be a disaster. There was enough depth in the group the club decided to release Shogo Akiyama shortly before Opening Day. Akiyama’s three-year deal over the 2019-20 offseason proved ill-fated as he offered very little offensively during his time in Cincinnati.

The infield is more exciting, with franchise icon Joey Votto looking resurgent and second baseman Jonathan India fresh off a Rookie of the Year campaign. Highly-touted prospect José Barrero figures to eventually take over as the regular shortstop, but he’s dealing with a hamate injury that’ll keep him out into May. Utilityman Kyle Farmer demonstrated he’s capable of holding the position over in Barrero’s absence last season; he’ll do so again for this year’s first month and a half, then perhaps shift over to a third base position that has disappointed in recent years.

That’s mostly because Suárez’s production fell in 2020, but he’s not the only big-name infielder to stumble unexpectedly. Mike Moustakas, whom the club signed to a four-year deal a couple offseasons back, is coming off a miserable season in which he missed significant time due to repeated foot injuries. His underwhelming showing looks particularly problematic in the context of the organization’s curtailed spending. Moustakas is the nominal starter at third base, but it stands to reason both Farmer and offseason signee Donovan Solano could cut into his playing time once everyone’s healthy.

Solano might also help shoulder the load at the newly-implemented NL designated hitter position. He’s posted above-average offensive numbers in all three seasons since reinvigorating his career with the Giants in 2019. Solano isn’t an impact hitter, but he’s solid enough at the dish to be a capable bat-first utility option for skipper David Bell once he returns from a season-opening IL stint.

He and Brandon Drury, who made the roster as a minor league signee, offer some infield depth. The Reds also took a low-cost flier on former Pirate Colin Moran to add another bat to the corner infield/DH group. As a left-handed hitter, Moran could be a candidate to split time at the hot corner with the righty-swinging Solano and Drury if he can play his way above Moustakas on the depth chart. Cincinnati rounded out the position player mix by selecting non-roster invitee Aramis García to back up Stephenson behind the dish.

There’s a bit of a mishmash feel to the Reds lineup, but it’s certainly not without talent. Votto, India, Stephenson, Naquin and Pham should make for a capable offensive core. Barrero and Senzel have a chance to play their way into that mix, and Cincinnati has at least brought in some competent if unexciting veterans to fill the roster.

Of greater concern may be the depth on the pitching staff. Castillo and Mahle make for a strong top two, but the losses of Gray and Miley removed last season’s No. 3 and No. 4 options. To replace some of that veteran stability, the Reds sent reliever Amir Garrett to Kansas City for starter Mike Minor. The southpaw is starting the season on the injured list himself, but he began a rehab assignment this week.

The Minor deal was a real surprise, something of an outlier in the Reds’ broader offseason. He’s coming off two consecutive seasons with an ERA north of 5.00. Minor’s career track record and recent peripherals both paint him more favorably, making him a sensible enough bounceback candidate in a vacuum. Yet the deal involved Cincinnati taking on around $7.3MM in salary (after subtracting Garrett’s arbitration tally and a small cash payment by Kansas City).

Would the Reds have been better served to hang onto Miley and non-tender Garrett, which would’ve been roughly financially equivalent? It’d seem so, but Reds pitching coach Derek Johnson has to be confident he can coax better results from Minor — with whom he’s no doubt familiar from their time at Vanderbilt more than a decade ago.

Johnson is also tasked with guiding two of the top pitching prospects in the game as they make their MLB debuts this season. Fireballing Hunter Greene broke camp with the big league club and picked up his first start over the weekend. The righty averaged an absurd 99.7 MPH on his fastball, showcasing the kind of power stuff that made him a No. 2 overall pick and gives him front-of-the-rotation upside. Left-hander Nick Lodolo doesn’t have that kind of arm strength, but his impressive slider and very advanced command could make him a mid-rotation arm fairly soon. It’s expected Lodolo will be in the regular rotation as well, although after a clean first frame, he was hit hard in his MLB debut yesterday (five runs in four innings).

There’s something of a trial-by-fire element in relying on both Greene and Lodolo every fifth day in a season where the Reds still hope to contend. They’re both very highly touted arms, but there’s risk inherent in projecting any prospect to assume a key role on a win-now big league roster. Reiver Sanmartín and Vladimir Gutierrez are around as insurance, but neither has much big league success on his resume either. Whether Greene and Lodolo immediately excel could be a turning point for the Reds. If they hit the ground running, there’s a decent enough core in both the lineup and the rotation that it’s not out of the question they hang around the playoff picture. If either experience some early growing pains, the lack of pitching depth could catch up to the team pretty quickly.

That’s particularly true in light of the club’s lack of offseason moves to address the bullpen. Cincinnati relievers posted the league’s fourth-worst ERA (4.99) in 2021, one of the biggest reasons the Reds couldn’t hold onto a postseason spot. That was despite 33 2/3 fantastic innings from Tejay Antone, who probably won’t pitch at all this season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in September. The Reds entered the offseason seemingly in desperate need of some help late in games, but they did virtually nothing to address the issue.

The only external pickup was a one-year deal for journeyman righty Hunter Strickland. He’s coming off a 2.61 ERA season, but his underlying numbers were closer to average. Strickland is a fine middle reliever, but he’s miscast as a high-leverage option. That puts particular pressure on holdovers like Tony Santillan and Art Warren to build off promising 2021 showings. Whenever Lucas Sims returns from the IL, he figures to assume another key late-game role as well.

Much as is the case with the lineup and the rotation, one can envision a scenario where things break right with the bullpen. Relief units tend to be the most volatile aspect of a team — few would’ve anticipated the Mariners riding an elite bullpen to 90 wins at the start of last season, for instance — and the Reds have a few promising arms they can deploy. Yet as with the rest of the roster, the depth behind the top few options is lacking, making it particularly paramount the most talented players stay healthy and perform up to expectations.

The Reds find themselves in a weird spot. They spent the second half of the last decade rebuilding, gearing up for a full-fledged push for contention in 2020. The organization obviously couldn’t have foreseen the shortened season and pandemic-associated revenue losses to come, and ownership has declined to push payroll forward in the wake of that difficult year.

That has left the front office trying to strike a delicate balance between contending and managing finances. There’s too much win-now talent for the club to commit to another full rebuild, but there are enough gaps on the margins of the roster it’s hard to project them as a 2022 playoff team. They’re left to hope that some late-offseason depth adds, early prospect promotions and a newly-expanded postseason field will be enough to hang around. It’s not impossible, but the Reds have less margin for error than many of their competitors. There’s a real danger of the franchise spinning their wheels around .500, which would only raise more questions about how to proceed with Castillo and Mahle as the summer trade deadline approaches.

Offseason In Review: Kansas City Royals

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The Royals reunited with one of the best homegrown pitchers in franchise history on the tail end of his Hall of Fame career but were otherwise quiet, as they’re banking on an increasingly MLB-ready set of prospects to drive a return to contention in the AL Central.

Major League Signings

Trades and Claims

Extensions

  • Signed CF Michael A. Taylor to a two-year, $9MM extension (technically just before the end of the regular season; Taylor would have been a free agent)

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

The Royals got their first couple orders of offseason business done before the regular season had even ended. Longtime general manager Dayton Moore was promoted to president of baseball operations, while longtime assistant GM J.J. Picollo was elevated to the title of general manager. It’s still Moore atop the baseball ops hierarchy, but the pair of promotions made it all the more difficult for other teams to lure the Royals’ top executives away. Kansas City also signed all-world defensive center fielder Michael A. Taylor to an affordable two-year, $9MM extension on Sept. 29 — keeping him from the market and ensuring a continuance of the excellent defense that has been a hallmark of Moore’s best Royals teams.

Though the Royals finished the 2021 season with a 74-88 record, they’d made it clear even dating back to the 2020-21 offseason that the team was intent on moving out of a brief rebuilding phase and shifting to a win-now mindset. Moore had plainly stated as much, and the 2020-21 offseason signings of Mike Minor and Carlos Santana were clear bets on formerly productive veterans that they could return to form and help to mentor an otherwise extremely young Royals roster.

Unfortunately, neither deal paid dividends. Minor posted a second straight ERA north of 5.00, while Santana hit just .214/.319/.342 through 659 plate appearances. Both former All-Stars may have had some sage advice for the Royals’ up-and-coming prospects, but they each quickly went from rebound candidates to struggling veterans now multiple years removed from productivity.

For a Royals club with a deep collection of young starting pitchers and several MLB-ready top prospects on the position-player side of the depth chart, the presence of Minor and Santana quickly became a roadblock. That’s not to say there wasn’t room for a veteran anchor to the rotation, but the Royals clearly felt Minor wasn’t up to the task of shepherding the group in 2022, as they traded him to the Reds in a straight-up swap that brought hard-throwing lefty reliever Amir Garrett to Kansas City.

The trade gave the Royals two years of control over Garrett, a clearly talented but highly inconsistent lefty who, if he can right the ship at Kauffman Stadium, will give manager Mike Matheny a viable high-leverage arm. Command issues have plagued Garrett in the past, but from 2019-20 he pitched to a combined 3.03 ERA while striking out one of every three batters he faced. Home runs were an issue in 2021, but the move from Great American Ball Park to Kauffman ought to help him in that regard.

As importantly — if not more importantly — the Minor/Garrett swap trimmed more than $7MM from the Royals’ payroll. Kansas City agreed to pay the $1MM buyout on Minor’s 2023 option and also chipped in $500K to help cover salary. The Reds otherwise surprisingly took on $7.3MM in additional salary for a 34-year-old lefty with a 5.18 ERA over the past two seasons and a shoulder issue that Cincinnati knew would have him behind schedule in camp. (Minor opened the season on the injured list but was sent on a rehab assignment yesterday.)

That bit of extra payroll space proved vital. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported not long before the trade that the Royals had been hoping to shed payroll in order to bring in some rotation help. They both saved money and created a rotation vacancy in one swoop, setting the stage for a reunion with Zack Greinke, who won a Cy Young Award with the Royals back in 2009. Greinke, the No. 6 overall pick in 2002, returned to Kansas City, spurning similar offers from the Twins, Tigers and others in deference to a full-circle homecoming.

Swapping out Greinke for Minor should be an upgrade but it wasn’t the only starting pitching avenue the team explored. Even after signing Greinke, the Royals continued to pursue Oakland’s Frankie Montas, but the reportedly exorbitant asking price on the 29-year-old righty was too much for Kansas City — or any club, for that matter — to meet. Montas remains in Oakland, and Greinke is now charged with serving as the veteran leader of a rotation that enters 2022 with the same questions it did in 2021.

Kansas City has an impressive collection of young arms, including Brady Singer, Daniel Lynch, Kris Bubic, Jackson Kowar, Jonathan Heasley and Carlos Hernandez, but to this point that sextet has only had scattershot success. Every member of the group has shown flashes of mid-rotation potential (if not more), but consistency hasn’t been there. That makes a rebound from 26-year-old Brad Keller, who pitched to a career-worst 5.39 ERA in 133 2/3 frames last year, all the more important. Greinke is no longer an ace, but if he and Keller can provide serviceable bulk innings and even one or two of the organization’s touted young arms can take the next step, it’s easy enough to see a quality starting staff coming together.

It’s also possible that any of those six young hurlers could eventually wind up in the bullpen on a full-time basis. Singer is there right now in a long relief capacity, though he has the most big league experience of Kansas City’s young arms and could get a look back in the rotation sooner than later. There’s a fair bit of uncertainty beyond Scott Barlow, Josh Staumont and the previously mentioned Garrett, however. Lefty Jake Brentz had a nice year in 2021 but needs to improve his command, and righty Dylan Coleman has impressed thus far but in a very limited set of innings.

It’s surprising, then, that Kansas City’s only bullpen addition was righty Taylor Clarke, whom the D-backs non-tendered on the heels of a generally nondescript run in 2020-21 (86 2/3 innings, 4.67 ERA, 21% strikeout rate, 9.3% walk rate). Perhaps owner John Sherman simply wasn’t comfortable pushing payroll past the current $97MM Opening Day mark, but if that’s the case, the decision to restructure Whit Merrifield’s contract to pay him more in 2022 is unusual. Some teams are hesitant to add players late in the offseason when their 40-man roster is full and they fear losing a decent player, but it’s hard to argue that the Royals’ 40-man roster doesn’t have a player or two who could justifiably be jettisoned for some proven bullpen innings.

Nearly 20 relievers signed one-year deals worth under $4MM, and there are even still a few unsigned names who’d have seemingly made some sense for Kansas City (e.g. Yusmeiro Petit, Tony Watson). As with the rotation, though, it seems the Royals will hope in-house options like Coleman, Collin Snider, Gabe Speier and others can step up and fill in the gaps. To their credit, Barlow and Staumont are a pair of developmental success stories.

Turning the focus to the lineup, the Royals are running out the same group of hitters they did late in the 2021 season — with one notable exception. Top prospect Bobby Witt Jr. obliterated Cactus League pitching, just as he did Double-A and Triple-A arms in 2021, and forced his way onto the Opening Day roster. The 21-year-old, second-generation talent was the No. 2 overall pick in 2019 and is viewed as a star in the making. He’s slotting in at third base early in the season, though he’s played primarily shortstop in the minors. The Royals plugged Adalberto Mondesi back in at short, however, and moved Nicky Lopez from shortstop to second base. As was the case in 2021, the Royals should be a tremendous defensive club.

Still, it’s fairly surprising the Royals didn’t find a means to move on from Santana on the heels of such a poor showing. If the first-base cupboard beyond Santana were bare, it’d be more understandable, but that’s not the case at all. Rather, Kansas City has a pair of top-50 prospects who burst onto the scene with mammoth 2021 seasons between Double-A and Triple-A. First baseman Nick Pratto slashed .265/.385/.602 with 38 home runs between those two levels, while catcher MJ Melendez led the minors with 41 homers and posted an even better .288/.386/.625 line. Pratto is the heir-apparent at first base, and it’s a bit puzzling to see Santana getting playing time over him. Melendez isn’t going to unseat Salvador Perez behind the plate anytime soon, but he could mix in at designated hitter and the infield corners — the Royals tried him at third base a bit last year — were more at-bats available.

Santana, fellow first baseman Ryan O’Hearn and utilityman Hunter Dozier combined for a .217/.297/.368 batting line in 1456 plate appearances last year. All three are on the Major League roster right now, while Pratto and Melendez are in the minors. Dozier is signed through 2024 with a 2025 option, so it’s understandable if the Royals are committed to getting him right at the plate. But he’s also played all four corner positions and could be dropped to a utility role because of that versatility. O’Hearn and Santana, meanwhile, seem more like pure roadblocks to the Royals’ more promising prospects. Perhaps they’re both on short leashes, but it’s a bit odd that Witt’s huge Spring Training landed him an Opening Day roster spot while Pratto and Melendez were optioned relatively early despite outstanding performances themselves.

If that seems like a lot of focus on the Royals’ incumbent options rather than their new additions, that’s because there simply weren’t any new additions on the position-player side of things, aside from the promotion of Witt. The Royals firmly believe the core of their next contending club is already in the organization, but that only makes it more curious that two of their three best prospects were sent out after huge spring showings. Again, in Kansas City’s defense, both Melendez and Pratto have struggled through a handful of Triple-A games so far, so perhaps this is the right tactic for their development. If Santana continues struggling as he has early in 2022, however, it’ll be increasingly difficult not to dip into the farm.

Ultimately, it was a quiet offseason for the Royals, setting them up to live or die by the developmental strides of young players like Lynch, Singer, Bubic, Kowar, Hernandez, Heasley, Pratto, Melendez and, of course, Witt. That group should get as many reps as possible this year once the organization deems them ready, and while they won’t all pan out, a full year of evaluation should give Moore and his staff the chance to determine where they need to supplement next winter. The Royals are a long shot to contend, but if enough of the kids step up, there’s at least some Wild Card potential with this group.

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