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Looking For A Match In A Matt Chapman Trade

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The tea leaves in Oakland aren’t painting a pretty picture of what is to come. A few weeks ago, they let manager Bob Melvin depart and join the Padres, seemingly just to save themselves a few million in salary. Then they declined a $4MM option on Jake Diekman, a fair enough price for a solid lefty reliever. Then there were the recent comments of general manager David Forst, who said that they are willing to listen to trade offers for any of their players. “This is the cycle for the A’s. We have to listen and be open to whatever comes out of this. This is our lot in Oakland until it’s not.” Everything seems to be pointing towards a big sell-off in Oakland, with their arbitration-eligible players likely to be exchanged for younger and cheaper alternatives.

As the front office is doing all of that listening, they are likely to hear a lot about Matt Chapman. The third baseman, who turns 29 in April, can be controlled for two more seasons via arbitration. The arbitration projections of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz point to Chapman’s 2022 salary being in the $9.5MM range, with him then being due another raise for 2023, before being eligible for free agency. That’s not prohibitively expensive for a lot of teams, but for the Athletics, that’s a decent chunk of their budget. They’re currently projected for a 2022 payroll over $85MM, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. Their opening day number has only been above $90MM once, which was 2019, before the pandemic wiped out almost two thirds of a season and left teams playing in front of empty stadiums for the remainder. (Hat tip to Cot’s Baseball Contracts.) Hypothetically speaking, if they want to get that number down around $65MM, which was their opening day figure in 2018, a contract around $10MM would represent about 15% of the total outlay.

The timing of trading Chapman puts the Oakland brass in a difficult position, as he’s coming off a down year, relative to his own lofty standards. From his debut in June of 2017 until the end of the 2019 season, he played 385 games, hitting 74 home runs and slashing .257/.341/.500. His strikeout rate of 23.9% was a tad higher than league average, but so was his 10.1% walk rate. All that amounted to a wRC+ of 127 that, combined with his elite defense, added up to 15.6 fWAR. However, 2020 saw him fall from those incredible heights. His batting average dropped, his strikeout rate increased, his walk rate decreased and then his season was ended prematurely by hip surgery. In 2021, the good news was that he was healthy enough after the surgery to play 151 games and provide excellent defense, winning his third Gold Glove award. But the offense didn’t fully come back. His walk rate shot up to 12.9%, but his strikeout rate was a whopping 32.5%. He did hit 27 homers, but his overall line of .210/.314/.403 was well below his previous level, and amounted to a wRC+ of 101, just a hair above league average. It seems absurd to refer to 3.4 fWAR as a “down year”, but it is for Chapman, as that’s barely half of the 6.7 and 6.1 he was worth in 2018 and 2019, respectively.

For the Oakland front office, that puts them at a crossroads. One path is to hold onto him and hope for a return to his prior form and increase in his trade value. They could accomplish their salary-shedding goals by trading other players, such as Matt Olson, Sean Manaea and Chris Bassitt, who are all projected to earn between $8.8MM and $12MM. Olson’s is coming off his best season, while Manaea and Bassitt are both free agents after 2022. However, holding Chapman comes with the risk that he could be injured again, or just stay his 2021 level and see his trade value reduced as he gets closer to free agency. The way to avoid that risk would be to just make a move now, even if his trade value isn’t at its peak.

If they do decide to part with Chapman, or any other player, they seem likely to target MLB-ready pieces. As noted by Steve Adams, from the piece linked in the first paragraph, the club’s various resets usually don’t last very long because this has been their method. The team has only had a losing record eight times in the 24 seasons of the Billy Beane era, and never for more than three in a row. With that in mind, let’s consider some potential trading partners.

Mariners: There’s a third base vacancy in Seattle for the first time a long time, as Kyle Seager is now a free agent. Abraham Toro is pencilled in there for now, but he’s also capable of moving to second base and bumping Dylan Moore into a bench/utility role, making Chapman an easy fit. The club is expected to be aggressive this offseason, as they look to build on a strong 2021 campaign. The Athletics are probably loath to send Chapman to a division rival, but they may also be interested in one of Seattle’s many young and cheap outfielders. The Mariners have Mitch Haniger in one spot, with the other two being open for Jarred Kelenic, Kyle Lewis, Jake Fraley, Taylor Trammell, Julio Rodriguez and Zach DeLoach. The Athletics have just seen Mark Canha and Starling Marte head into free agency and are unlikely to outbid other teams in order to bring them back. Ramon Laureano will still be serving his suspension for the first 27 games of the 2022 season, leaving Oakland with outfield options such as Stephen Piscotty, Seth Brown, Chad Pinder, Skye Bolt and Luis Barrera.

Marlins: Miami has a tremendous pitching surplus and is looking to use it to improve their offense, particularly at catcher and in the outfield. However, third base is a bit of a question mark for them as well. Brian Anderson is penciled in there now, but only got into 67 games in 2021 due to various injuries. Even if he is healthy, he’s capable of playing the outfield, meaning that adding Chapman could indirectly be the outfield addition they seek. With the expected addition of the DH in the NL, it would also be easy to have them both in the lineup. The Athletics would presumably be interested in Miami’s arms that have yet to reach arbitration, such as Zach Thompson, Sixto Sanchez, Edward Cabrera, Max Meyer or maybe even getting Jesus Luzardo back.

Blue Jays: Much like the Marlins, the Jays also saw their third baseman miss a lot of time due to injury. Cavan Biggio was an awkward fit at third anyway, as he had primarily been a second baseman prior to this year and moved to accommodate the addition of Marcus Semien. If Chapman were at third, Biggio could slide back to the keystone, with Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. filling out the rest of the infield. Chapman was recently rumored to be a target of the Jays. The Jays have a catching surplus, but that may not interest Oakland with Sean Murphy already on hand. But perhaps they would be interested in Nate Pearson, who has ace potential but has struggled with injuries recently, or infield prospect Jordan Groshans, who spent all of 2021 at Double-A and should be knocking on the door of the majors next year.

Yankees: The Yankee infield is a bit of musical chairs at the moment, with the team seemingly giving up on Gleyber Torres as a shortstop. The infield right now, on paper, would be Torres at second with DJ LeMahieu at third, Gio Urshela at shortstop and Luke Voit at first. Voit doesn’t seem to have a job locked down, as the club has looked into Anthony Rizzo and Matt Olson, but they could also acquire Chapman and move LeMahieu over to first. The Yankees are also looking into top free agent shortstops, which could make prospects like Anthony Volpe and Oswald Peraza into trade chips that would interest the Athletics. Or perhaps Oakland would be interested in young and controllable arms, such as Michael King, Luis Gil, Clarke Schmidt, Deivi Garcia or Luis Medina.

Mets: J.D. Davis only played 73 games in 2021 due to a hand injury that sent him to the IL multiple times. When healthy, he provided his usual mix of strong offense coupled with poor defense. He was reportedly available at the trade deadline and even admitted himself that he has a “gut feeling” he won’t be with the team next year. Although even if he were to stay and the club acquired Chapman, Davis would be a good fit at DH, should the NL implement it, given his profile. With Chapman in the fold, it could allow the Mets to part with third base prospects such as Brett Baty or Mark Vientos, both of whom are close to reaching the majors.

Phillies: A year ago, it seemed like the third base job in Philadelphia was locked down for years to come, as Alec Bohm had a breakout rookie campaign in 2020. He hit a tremendous .338/.400/.481 for a wRC+ of 138. However, seemingly everything went wrong in 2021, as he dropped to .247/.305/.342 for a wRC+ of 75 and even got optioned to the minors for over a month. With the Athletics taking a step back, they could give Bohm some playing time and see if he can recapture that prior form. However, the Phillies have bigger priorities in the outfield and bullpen, which may mean that they hang on to him.

Rockies: In the first season of the post-Arenado era, Ryan McMahon got most of the playing time at the hot corner, who paired average-ish offense with excellent defense. But he’s also capable of playing second base, with Brendan Rodgers then moving to shortstop to replace Trevor Story, who is now a free agent. Chapman’s power bat moving to the high-altitude environment of Coors Field is tantalizing to imagine, and could potentially make infield prospects like Colton Welker and Elehuris Montero expendable.

Offseason Outlook: Colorado Rockies

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The likely departure of Trevor Story will only hurt a team that has already struggled to generate offense, so landing some hitters who can produce both at home and on the road is the first order of business for Rockies general manager Bill Schmidt.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Antonio Senzatela, SP: $50.5MM through 2026 ($14MM club option for 2027)
  • German Marquez, SP: $28.5MM through 2023 (includes $2.5MM buyout of $16MM club option for 2024)
  • C.J. Cron, 1B: $14.5MM through 2023
  • Scott Oberg, RP: $7MM through 2022 ($8MM club option for 2023)

Other Financial Commitments

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

  • Charlie Blackmon, OF: $21MM player option for 2022 (exercised; Blackmon also has a $10MM player option for 2023, and has already said he will exercise that option as well)
  • Ian Desmond, IF/OF: $15MM club option for 2022 (declined, Desmond received $2MM buyout)

Free Agents

When Jeff Bridich stepped down from the general manager job back in April, the Rockies announced they would look for a new head of baseball operations after the season, with an interim GM filling the role for the remainder of the 2021 campaign.  As it happened, the Rox made their choice early, deciding to elevate interim GM and longtime front office employee Bill Schmidt into the full-time job during the final weekend of the regular season.  As team president/COO Greg Feasel put it, Schmidt impressed upper management to the point that “he didn’t give us a choice…I mean, how many times do you need to be hit over the head with a bat?  And he was the right guy for us at the right time.”

Given how the Rockies often promote from within and place such a large premium on continuity within the organization, Schmidt’s official hiring wasn’t a surprise.  However, for Colorado fans frustrated by their team’s lack of overall success, Rockies owner Dick Monfort’s track record for loyalty is a double-edged sword that seems to prevent new perspectives and new strategies from filtering into the front office.

In fairness to Schmidt, he is a veteran baseball man with his own ideas, so it is maybe too easy to just presume that things will be business as usual at Coors Field.  And, having their GM position decided early did allow the Rockies to get a quick jump on some notable offseason business — inking Antonio Senzatela to a five-year contract extension, and then keeping C.J. Cron off the free agent market by signing the first baseman to a new two-year, $14.5MM deal.

Cron was the more pressing concern since he was just weeks away from the open market, but it isn’t all that surprising he’d welcome staying in one place after changing teams in each of the last four offseasons.  Playing in Denver certainly seemed to agree with Cron, who hit .281/.375/.530 with 28 home runs over 547 plate appearances, fueled by big home/road splits (1.073 OPS at Coors Field, .734 OPS in away games).

Cron certainly did enough to merit that extension, and keeping him in the fold helps reinforce Colorado’s lineup.  That said, Cron’s performance is endemic of the 2021 season as a whole for Rockies hitters, who batted a league-worst .217/.291/.352 (73 wRC+) on the road.  Colorado was only 26-54 in away games, and even at home, the Rockies’ cumulative .280/.341/.475 slash line translated to only a 90 wRC+.

It has now been several years since the Rox have had a productive offense both at home and on the road. The team’s inability to find consistent hitting has been underscored by the fact that the rotation has been perhaps as stable recently as at any point in the franchise’s history.  On the rare occasions when everything is clicking, it is perhaps understandable why Monfort and Schmidt have seemed so insistent that this team isn’t as far away from contention as it seems.  In practice, however, the Rockies have had three straight losing seasons, a flawed roster, a thin minor league system, and many needs to address if they’re going to make any noise in a very competitive NL West.

Let’s begin with the rotation, as German Marquez is the ace of a staff that will return Senzatela, Austin Gomber, and Kyle Freeland. This quartet was collectively decent if unspectacular in 2021.  Senzatela’s extension now locks him in with Marquez (controlled through 2024 via his own extension) and Gomber (controlled through 2025 via arbitration) as long-term pieces for Colorado, even if guaranteeing $50.5MM to Senzatela seemed a little surprising since the righty has had some ups-and-downs over his five MLB seasons.

Extending a pitcher who has had some success at Coors Field does seem like a logical move for the Rockies, considering their difficulties in bringing any premium free agent arms to the thin air.  Barring a big and unlikely overpay, the Rox will be looking to add starting depth through minor league signings and veterans perhaps looking for a bounce-back year.  In-house starting options include Peter Lambert back from Tommy John surgery, rookie Ryan Feltner, and top pitching prospect Ryan Rolison should make his MLB debut in 2022, though none of that group can be counted on to reliably fill a rotation spot just yet.

Trading for a veteran hurler who can eat innings and keep the ball on the ground would be a good idea, and this is one area where Schmidt can easily distinguish himself.  Bridich didn’t make many trades over his six-plus years as the GM, and there weren’t a lot of clear wins in that limited number (the Marquez/Jake McGee deal notwithstanding).

Of course, re-signing Jon Gray would also address that rotation need, though it remains to be seen if a reunion is feasible now that Gray has reached free agency.  The Rockies resisted dealing Gray at the trade deadline because they were so intent on keeping him, and then made an extension offer in the area of $35-$40MM over three years.  This late-season offer was seemingly the only deal officially presented to Gray and his representatives, and when it was rejected, the Rockies then didn’t issue Gray a one-year, $18.4MM qualifying offer.  The right-hander now doesn’t have any draft pick compensation attached to his services, making him an even more attractive option for other teams in need of rotation help.

It all adds up to a curious sequence of events, as now Colorado risks losing Gray for nothing.  The Denver Post’s Patrick Saunders reported that Gray “likely would have accepted” the QO, so the Rockies would’ve been paying Gray roughly $5MM more in average annual value than they were comfortable with, given the parameters of their extension offer.   Yet, would this have really been that unpalatable a situation, considering how seriously the club seemed to want to retain Gray?  Then again, perhaps even that intent could be called into question if the Rox did make Gray just that one offer, unless the Rockies simply put way too much faith in Gray accepting that three-year extension.

Paying an extra $5MM than expected for Gray would’ve had an impact on Colorado’s payroll availability, but Feasel has stated that the team plans to slowly increase its spending over the next two years.  With roughly $103MM (as per Roster Resource) committed to the 2022 payroll, Feasel said the Rox plan to be back in the $150MM range by 2023, which was what the club was spending in 2018-19 before the pandemic.  That $47MM spending bump isn’t small, though it remains to be seen if the majority of that increase may happen next winter instead of over the coming few months, particularly since the collective bargaining agreement talks could significantly alter baseball’s business rules going forward.

It could also be that spending extra money on a starting pitcher didn’t fit the team’s greatest needs, as Schmidt has said that improving the bullpen and adding power to the lineup are the top priorities.  On the relief pitching front, don’t expect to see any expensive names added, as the Rockies have many of the same issues in attracting relievers as they do in attracting prominent starters (plus, the McGee/Wade Davis/Bryan Shaw contracts undoubtedly still linger in the front office’s memory).

Carlos Estevez enters the offseason as the closer, with Lucas Gilbreath and Robert Stephenson doing the most in 2021 to lay claims on setup roles or even occasional save opportunities.  Daniel Bard’s projected $4.8MM arbitration number is boosted by the saves he did accumulate before losing the closer’s job, but Bard pitched decently well outside the ninth inning and will likely be retained.  Tyler Kinley might be a non-tender candidate, but he isn’t expensive and offers some durability.  Along those same lines, Jhoulys Chacin ate some innings and posted decent numbers in his return to Colorado as a reliever, so the Rox could look to re-sign the veteran.  Since Gilbreath is the only left-hander among any of these bullpen names mentioned, the Rockies will probably target a southpaw or two.

This brings us to the position player mix, and the big gap that exists at shortstop since Trevor Story will be playing elsewhere in 2022.  Story is another of the many pending free agents the Rockies chose to keep at their quiet trade deadline, as Schmidt stated that rival teams didn’t present any offers more attractive than the compensatory draft pick Colorado will receive via the qualifying offer when Story signs with a new team.

The infield vacancy does look like it will be at shortstop, as while Brendan Rodgers has played plenty of shortstop in the minors, the expectation is that the Rockies will keep him at second base.  Rodgers’ first full MLB season was pretty successful, as he hit .284/.328/.470 with 15 homers over 415 PA after a hamstring strain delayed his season debut until May 21.  The former third overall pick now looks like a player to be counted on for regular work going forward, giving Colorado one building block in place.

In fact, the Rockies’ infield mix is pretty settled apart from shortstop.  Cron is at first base, Rodgers at second, Ryan McMahon is at third base, and Elias Diaz is lined up for regular catching duties with Dom Nunez as either the backup or as a platoon partner if his hitting improves.  It isn’t a bad group on paper, yet they were only truly dangerous at Coors Field — Rodgers was the only regular who really hit well in away games, though he countered those splits with subpar production at home.

Ezequiel Tovar looks on pace to be Colorado’s shortstop of the future, though since he’s only 20 years old and hasn’t even played Double-A ball, he isn’t a realistic option until 2023 at the earliest.  If the Rockies have enough confidence in Tovar’s bat to project him as an everyday player, they might only be looking for a short-term shortstop addition to serve as a bridge for the next year or two.  This could put the Rox in line for a relatively inexpensive veteran free agent in the Andrelton Simmons/Freddy Galvis tier, or a utilityman like Leury Garcia or Marwin Gonzalez could help at shortstop and at other positions.  Keeping with the utility theme, re-signing Chris Owings would also seem like a realistic option, even if Owings hasn’t played much shortstop in the last few years.

If the Rockies are going to add some offensive pop and are willing to spend some money to do it, the outfield is the obvious target area.  Longtime Rockie Charlie Blackmon exercised his player option and looks to have one of the corner spots (probably right field) accounted for the next two years, leaving two slots open to a collection of players that includes Sam Hilliard, Raimel Tapia, Connor Joe, Yonathan Daza, and Ryan Vilade.  This group isn’t bereft of talent or potential, but there also isn’t anyone there who would or should preclude the Rox from adding a proven veteran slugger, particularly if the National League adds the DH next year.

Starling Marte is the clear choice as the top center fielder on the market, though a versatile player like Chris Taylor could handle center field, shortstop, and several other spots around the diamond.  Taylor, for what it’s worth, has consistently torched the Rockies and hit well at Coors Field as a visiting player.

Signing Taylor would cost the Rox a compensatory draft pick, however, as would other big-hitting QO free agent outfielders like Nick Castellanos or Michael Conforto.  This could be a sacrifice Colorado is willing to make, figuring that the Story compensatory pick will make up for it, but it probably seems likelier that the Rockies will first look to non-QO outfielders like Avisail Garcia, Kyle Schwarber, or Mark Canha.

The list of targets obviously hinges on what exactly the Rockies are willing to spend, and of course, it also takes two to tango in free agent signings.  The names at the top of the outfield market have flexibility in choosing their next team, and unless Colorado strongly outbids the other suitors, would their top choice be a Rockies team that doesn’t seem like an obvious contender in 2022 (or even 2023)?  Also, the “Coors Field Effect” may turn off hitters as much as pitchers, given how much recent evidence exists that playing in Denver may mess up a hitter’s production from one ballpark to the next.

This same factor also influences the trade market.  As mentioned earlier, Bridich didn’t make many trades as Colorado’s general manager, but that could partially stem from the difficulty in properly evaluating players who spend half their time at Coors Field, especially if many of those same players then struggle on the road.  If the Rox acquired a new outfielder, for example, players like Tapia, Hilliard, or Garrett Hampson might become expendable trade chips.  But, for both Schmidt and rival GMs, how do you properly gauge the value of a player when their home ballpark may have such an outsized impact on their performance?

There’s no question that the Rockies face plenty of difficulties unique to their team alone, yet their situation hasn’t been helped by some self-inflicted wounds, such as the hard feelings that surrounded Nolan Arenado’s departure and how Story seemed openly displeased that he wasn’t moved at the trade deadline.  This offseason will be very instructive in illustrating Schmidt’s direction for the team and how it differs from the Bridich era, and in lieu of substantive changes, Rox fans may continue to be wary at the future outlook.

Offseason Outlook: Minnesota Twins

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The 2019-20 AL Central champs faceplanted in a 2021 season that was disastrous enough for the Twins to trade away longtime top starter Jose Berrios. Owner Jim Pohlad has made clear that the Twins will not go into a rebuild, so president of baseball operations Derek Falvey and general manager Thad Levine will be looking for immediate help to remedy the roster.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Josh Donaldson, 3B: $50MM through 2023 (includes $8MM buyout of $16MM 2024 club option)
  • Max Kepler, OF: $16.25MM through 2023 (includes $1MM buyout of $10MM 2024 club option)
  • Jorge Polanco, 2B/SS: $12.5MM through 2023 (includes $1MM buyout of $10.5MM 2024 club option; contract also contains $12MM 2025 club option)
  • Miguel Sano, 1B/DH: $12MM through 2022 (includes $2.75MM buyout of $14MM 2023 club option)
  • Randy Dobnak, RHP: $8.55MM through 2025 (includes $1MM buyout of $6MM 2026 club option)
  • Kenta Maeda, RHP: $6MM through 2023
  • Total 2022 commitment: $45.8MM
  • Total long-term commitment: $105.3MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

  • Alex Colome, RHP: Twins declined their end of a $5.5MM mutual option (paid $1.25MM buyout)

Free Agents

Very little went right for the Twins in 2021. Byron Buxton looked like an MVP candidate when healthy but played just 67 games thanks to a hip flexor strain and broken hand. The 2020 Cy Young runner-up, Kenta Maeda, pitched through hip and elbow troubles before undergoing Tommy John surgery. Mitch Garver, Michael Pineda and Max Kepler all had lengthy IL stays.  Top prospect Royce Lewis tore his ACL before the season began. The similarly touted Alex Kirilloff tried to play through a torn ligament in his wrist before he, too, went under the knife. There was a team-wide Covid outbreak in late April. Nearly every free-agent pickup — J.A. Happ, Matt Shoemaker, Andrelton Simmons, Alex Colome — fell well short of expectations. Things snowballed quickly.

The end result was not only a 73-89 record but also a deadline sell-off that few would’ve expected on Opening Day. Jose Berrios, Nelson Cruz, Hansel Robles and Happ were shipped out for younger players — a series of trades that netted the Twins a trio of prospects who are all featured on at least one prominent Top 100 ranking. Austin Martin, Simeon Woods Richardson and Joe Ryan are now among the team’s top farmhands, and Ryan has already gotten his feet wet in the Majors.

That series of trades and a few free-agent departures leaves the Twins with quite a few holes on the big league roster. Based on the previously mentioned no-rebuild stance from ownership, it seems likely the Twins will seek to fill those holes this winter rather than completely tear down a roster that recently won a pair of division titles.

That does not, however, preclude the Twins from making further subtractions from the current group. Among the team’s prominent trade candidates are the aforementioned Buxton, Kepler, Garver and perhaps younger backstop Ryan Jeffers. Josh Donaldson’s name came up at the trade deadline and could do so again this winter.

The Twins and Buxton’s reps at Jet Sports discussed an extension this summer but were unable to come to terms on a deal. Reports indicated that Minnesota had been willing to commit $80MM over a seven-year term — a baseline framework amenable to both sides. However, Buxton’s camp sought a richer package of incentives in the event that the ultra-talented but oft-injured center fielder began to show more durability.

The Twins and Buxton figure to rekindle extension talks this winter, and Buxton’s case can only be buoyed by the fact that he closed out the season with a .314/.375/.686 slash in his final 112 plate appearances after returning from that ill-timed hand fracture. If the two parties can’t find a middle ground, it’s plenty feasible that the Twins will field offers on one of the more dynamic talents in the game.

In many ways, the difficulties in finding a common ground during extension talks would be mirrored in theoretical trade talks. Other clubs, particularly those seeking defensive upgrades, would relish the opportunity to install Buxton in center field. At the same time, he’s a free agent next winter, and his ongoing injury troubles will make teams wary of parting with too much in a potential trade. Buxton’s prodigious talent and repeated IL stints present the Twins with something of a conundrum, regardless of which path they explore.

Elsewhere on the roster, the Twins could look to capitalize on affordable control and organizational depth. Kepler’s huge 2019 season looks like an outlier at this point, but he’s a terrific defender in right field who can handle center and has 25- to 30-homer pop. He may not be an All-Star, but his blend of walks, power and defense are appealing even if aggressive shifting and an extreme-pull approach will continue to suppress his batting average. With a healthier Kirilloff, a more-experienced Trevor Larnach and the looming debuts of top prospects Lewis and Martin — both can play shortstop and center field — the Twins have some depth to explore outfield trades.

Behind the plate, both Garver and Jeffers have appeal as starting-caliber options. Garver has been one of the game’s most productive offensive catchers since his 2019 breakout (combined .254/.348/.546 slash, 135 wRC+). Jeffers entered the 2021 season as a Top 100 prospect, and while he didn’t hit like he did in his brief 2020 call to the Majors, he’s a strong defender with plenty of pop and untapped potential at the plate. He’s also 24 years old and under club control another five seasons. Garver is controlled through 2023. There’s room for both on the roster, particularly if Garver can spend some additional time at DH. Still, catching-needy clubs with pitching to spare (e.g. the Marlins) will surely be checking in with the Twins.

However the Twins proceed on the trade market, they’ll likely focus on young pitching in return. The trade of Berrios, the injury to Maeda and the potential free-agent departure of Michael Pineda leave the rotation in a threadbare state. Joe Ryan, acquired from the Rays in the Cruz trade, ranks as Baseball America’s No. 91 prospect and posted a 4.05 ERA with a 30-to-5 K/BB ratio in 26 2/3 frames down the stretch. (Ryan also won a Silver Medal with Team USA in this year’s Olympics.) Rookie Bailey Ober had a quietly strong showing, rounding into form after a rough start (3.59 ERA, 20.9 K-BB% through 67 2/3 innings from July 1 onward).

Beyond that pair of promising youngsters, there’s no certainty. That’s in large part due to the fact that the Twins’ injury troubles extended to the upper echelon of their pitching prospects, too. Each of Jhoan Duran, Jordan Balazovic, Matt Canterino and Josh Winder missed time due to injury, as did fifth starter/swingman Randy Dobnak. The club will hope to extract some quality innings from that group, and perhaps Woods Richardson, in 2022.

The lack of current rotation pieces, however, will push the Twins to not only target controllable young arms in trade but also some veterans to plug right into the mix. The offseason trade market will include the likes of Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, Luis Castillo and Sonny Gray — any of whom could appeal to Minnesota. (Castillo and Gray, in particular, have multiple seasons of control remaining.) The Twins also have the means to be active in free agency; it’s just a question of the extent to which they’ll spend.

First and foremost, coming off a disastrous season, the Twins aren’t likely to appeal to a Max Scherzer or Justin Verlander type — an older, high-end free agent seeking to jump right into an obvious contender’s rotation. It’s true that we’ve never seen the Twins sign a free agent for more than Ervin Santana’s four-year, $55MM contract back in 2014, but Minnesota has made $100MM+ offers to both Yu Darvish and Zack Wheeler in the past.

With that in mind, it’s worth taking a quick high-level look at next year’s payroll. Minnesota has just $45.8MM in guaranteed money on the books for 2022. Even after factoring in around $25MM of arbitration salaries and pre-arb players to round out the roster, the Twins will be some $50MM south of their record $129MM payroll. Non-tenders and trades of current players could create further space, but there’s already a good bit of room to spend.

It’d rank as something of an upset if they actually won the bidding on a Robbie Ray, Kevin Gausman or Marcus Stroman, but the Twins at least have the payroll capacity to compete for those types of names. They were reportedly very interested in Stroman at the 2019 deadline, when he was traded to the Mets, and they’d be a plausible landing spot for a free-agent arm who’s still relatively young, such as Eduardo Rodriguez. There’s some mutual interest in a Pineda reunion, and other mid-rotation options include Anthony DeSclafani, Alex Wood and Jon Gray, among many others. The Twins need at least two, if not three options to stabilize the starting staff this winter.

Looking to the relief corps, things are similarly hazy. Taylor Rogers has been one of the game’s best left-handed relievers in recent years, but he ended the season on the injured list with a sprained ligament in his pitching hand. If the Twins are confident he’ll be good to go come Opening Day, a $6.7MM projected salary is plenty affordable. If there’s more doubt about his health, one can imagine they’ll at least debate whether to tender him a contract.

With Colome’s option being declined and uncertainty about Rogers’ health, the Twins will be on the hunt for an arm or two. The current front office regime has only signed one free-agent reliever to a notable multi-year deal — Addison Reed’s ill-fated two-year, $16.75MM pact — so there’s little chance they’ll play at the top of the market, where Raisel Iglesias should command a three or four-year deal with an eight-figure annual salary. Kendall Graveman, too, could be in position for a three-year pact, but it’s reasonable enough to expect the Twins could be in on just about any other relief arm this winter. History suggests they’re likelier to ink a couple of lower-cost veterans than dole out a hefty two-year deal — perhaps bailing out a reliever whose market didn’t develop as hoped (much like they did with Colome last winter).

Turning to the lineup, the Twins’ bevy of trade possibilities opens the door for any number of free-agent pursuits. They’re a clear fit for a shortstop now that Jorge Polanco has moved to second base and enjoyed a career year there. At the same time, when pitching is such a dire need, it’s worth wondering whether the best use of resources would be to plop down a nine-figure guarantee to one of the market’s top-end shortstops. Minnesota did have interest in Marcus Semien last winter, but there’s a difference between pursuing him as a potential bargain and paying top-of-the-market dollars on a five- or six-year deal this time around.

If Buxton and/or Kepler is moved this winter, the Twins have the payroll space to pivot and bring in a veteran outfielder. Nelson Cruz’s departure could open the door for Minnesota to move Miguel Sano to DH and explore first base options — be it a free agent like Anthony Rizzo or a potential trade candidate such as Luke Voit. Sano himself is a candidate to be shopped, though it’s worth noting that he hit .251/.330/.503 with 21 homers in his final 375 plate appearances. Perhaps it’s just coincidence, but that production began the day after the league’s memo announcing foreign-substance checks for pitchers. It also stands to reason that Minnesota will at least talk to the 40-year-old Cruz about a 2022 return after two and a half very productive years at Target Field.

If all of that seems rather ambiguous, it’s largely a reflection of the nature of the Twins’ current roster. While some of their division rivals have more straightforward paths this winter — the Royals will focus on bullpen help to supplement a young core; the Tigers are going to aggressively pursue a shortstop and a starting pitcher — the Twins are in a different spot. The core that emerged from their last rebuilding process is beginning to turn over, but the farm system is strong enough and the payroll clean enough that another multi-year rebuilding effort doesn’t seem necessary.

Acquiring pitching is likely to be a focal point, but the open-ended nature of the Twins’ lineup gives Falvey, Levine and the rest of the front office the ability to get creative in building out the roster. A straightforward pursuit of rotation help could result in signing multiple veteran free agents, but the Twins could also focus on the trade market for their starting pitching needs and surprise as a landing spot for someone like Rizzo or Trevor Story. Buxton could be traded for even more controllable young talent or signed to serve as a franchise centerpiece in spite of durability concerns. The Twins don’t have to trade Kepler or have to trade a catcher, but other teams will inquire. The possibilities here are much more plentiful than with most clubs, and the reality is that the front office can’t even know for certain how it’ll play out.

It all makes for a fairly fascinating offseason in Minnesota. As was the case with the 2021 trade deadline, Minnesota will be heavily involved in a broad-reaching number of storylines. The Twins might blur the lines between “buyer” and “seller” this offseason, but whatever shape their winter takes, they’ll be active.

Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Angels

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It was another disappointing season for the Angels, who missed the playoffs for the seventh consecutive year. Shohei Ohtani took an MVP-caliber step forward, while Jared Walsh became the newest member of the team’s enviable position player core. Yet again, the Angels are tasked with trying to build a passable roster to complement a few of the sport’s brightest stars. The issue, as is seemingly the case every winter: improving the pitching staff.

Guaranteed Contracts

Total 2022 commitments: $111.24MM

Projected Salaries for Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Gosselin, Guerra

Free Agents

The first few days of the offseason has made the Angels’ top priority apparent. They’re looking to upgrade the starting rotation, and they’re setting their sights high. Los Angeles general manager Perry Minasian has gone on record a few times about his desire to land external pitching help, telling reporters at this week’s GM Meetings the goal is “to significantly improve our rotation.”

All things considered, this is a pretty good offseason to be on the hunt for high-end pitching. The free agent class offers a handful of hurlers who have top-of-the-rotation numbers in their recent past, and the Angels have already been linked to a few members of that group. They’ve expressed some early interest in a couple of aces coming off injury-wrecked seasons in Justin Verlander and Noah Syndergaard. The Angels haven’t been publicly linked to Carlos Rodón, but the former White Sox southpaw was one of the best pitchers in the league on an inning for inning basis before a late-season IL stint due to shoulder discomfort threw his market into flux.

All three of those players have the impact potential to which Minasian alluded, but health and/or age questions figure to limit the length of any commitment. That might be particularly appealing for the Angels, a team that — despite showing an overall willingness to spend on players — has concentrated their recent long-term investments on position players. Whether that’s happenstance, the preference of owner Arte Moreno or risk aversion on the part of erstwhile GM Billy Eppler isn’t clear. Minasian, a first-time GM hired last November, doesn’t yet have a large body of work to offer much insight into his team-building approach. He was hired out of a Braves’ front office that has generally preferred to offer high annual salaries over shorter terms, though. It remains to be seen if he’ll take a similar approach as his former employer in Anaheim.

If the Angels are willing to make a longer-term investment in a starting pitcher, there are plenty of options beyond Verlander, Syndergaard and Rodón. Robbie Ray, Kevin Gausman and Marcus Stroman are all top-of-the-rotation caliber arms at their best, and all three might top $100MM over a five-plus year term. Eduardo Rodríguez is a tier below those three but could land a significant four or five year deal of his own. And there’s almost nothing a team could do to more significantly upgrade their starting staff in 2022 than sign Max Scherzer, even if that’d probably cost them an all-time record average annual investment.

Free agency offers plenty of potential high-impact options, and the Angels will surely also work the trade market. The Reds might make Luis Castillo and Sonny Gray available; the Marlins are considering whether to trade away someone like Sandy Alcantara or Pablo López; the division-rival A’s are soon to slash payroll, so Frankie Montas, Chris Bassitt and/or Sean Manaea could wind up on the move. Between the healthy supply of starters available in either free agency or trade and the Angels’ obvious desire to upgrade, it’d register as a major surprise if they didn’t come away with at least one marquee pickup this winter.

One high-end starter might be all the Angels need, since they actually have one of their better collection of internal options in recent memory. They’ll obviously want to be careful with Shohei Ohtani’s workload, but he’s a top-of-the-rotation type starter on an inning for inning basis. Patrick Sandoval broke out in 2021, working to a 3.62 ERA over 87 innings with one of the game’s highest swinging strike rates. His year ended early because of a back injury, but Sandoval has a 2022 rotation spot secured if healthy. That’s also true of lefty José Suárez, a ground-ball specialist who looks like a solid back-end type.

Add an impact external pickup to the mix, and four spots in Joe Maddon’s season-opening rotation are already accounted for. Top prospect Reid Detmers got his feet wet at the big league level this past season, and Jaime Barría and Griffin Canning could still compete for spots as well. Every team needs more than five or six starters to navigate a full season, and that’s especially true for an Angels club that needs to be careful in handling Ohtani. They’ve already been linked to mid-tier free agent starters like Steven Matz and Alex Wood, and those players would certainly add some stability. It makes sense to cast a wide net in the early stages of the offseason, but this isn’t a team that needs to build an entire rotation from scratch.

Of course, making multiple rotation additions could be a way to indirectly bolster one of the weaker areas of the roster — the bullpen. Angels’ relievers ranked 24th this past season in ERA (4.57), also finishing in the bottom half of the league in SIERA (4.10) and strikeout/walk rate differential (13.2 percentage points). That’s in spite of an excellent season from closer Raisel Iglesias, whom they could lose to free agency. The Angels made Iglesias a one-year, $18.4MM qualifying offer, but he seems likelier to decline that in search of a multi-year deal as the top reliever in this year’s class.

The Angels could certainly pursue an Iglesias reunion even if he rejects the QO, but it remains to be seen whether they’d want to pay a top-of-the-market price to address the relief corps. They should have the payroll flexibility to be in that mix. Jason Martinez of Roster Resource projects their current 2022 commitments around $130MM (non-tendering Phil Gosselin and Junior Guerra could knock that mark down a few million). That’s more than $50MM shy of the $182MM figure they carried into 2021 (per Cot’s Baseball Contracts), a franchise-record outlay. If Moreno’s willing to repeat this year’s level of spending, then the potential is there for a couple big free agent splashes.

Adding an impact free agent starter would probably account for at least half that available payroll space, though, and re-signing Iglesias on top of that might inhibit their ability to address the position player group. If Iglesias departs, the Angels would stand to recoup a compensatory draft pick after Competitive Balance Round B (around 70-75 overall) and could turn their attention to making one or two lower-cost bullpen pickups.

Other multi-year deal candidates who’d probably cost less than Iglesias include Kendall Graveman, Kenley Jansen, Corey Knebel, Héctor Neris, Mark Melancon and Ryan Tepera from the right side, with Aaron Loup, Andrew Chafin and Brooks Raley among the left-handed options. It seems likely they’ll add multiple arms to the ’pen in some capacity, with Mike Mayers, Andrew Wantz, Austin Warren and José Quijada the only in-house options coming off seasons with 20-plus frames of sub-4.00 SIERA ball.

Much of the position player group is already set. Ohtani will be a middle-of-the-order presence at DH, leaving first base to Jared Walsh. They’ll have to hope for better health from Anthony Rendon at third base, and that’s obviously true of Mike Trout as well. Max Stassi had a breakout season behind the plate and probably earned the lion’s share of playing time at catcher, although the front office could look around for a low-cost complement, preferably one who hits left-handed. The non-tender market could shake out an affordable player who comes with multiple remaining seasons of team control, which could be particularly appealing since Stassi is slated to hit free agency after next season.

The most glaring need is in the middle infield. The Angels are committed to David Fletcher at one spot, although that’s more of a question mark than it’d have seemed a few months ago. By measure of wRC+, Fletcher was the majors’ second-worst qualified hitter after the All-Star Break. That dreadful few months left him barely above replacement level for the season, but he’d combined average or better offense with excellent defense from 2019-20. His track record will earn him another chance, and Minasian said after the season the club was open to him playing either of second base or shortstop in 2022.

The Angels can’t do much but hope Fletcher rebounds at one of those positions, but they’ll probably have to upgrade the other middle spot. Luis Rengifo and Jack Mayfield, the top in-house candidates, are better suited in utility roles. This winter offers  an incredible collection of free agent middle infielders, although a run at any of Marcus Semien, Trevor Story or Javier Báez (to say nothing of top-of-the-market superstars Carlos Correa and Corey Seager) would add another huge multi-year investment to the books.

That shouldn’t be out of the question given the Angels’ previous levels of spending. They’re finally off the hook on the Albert Pujols contract, and the Justin Upton deal ends after next season. Trout, Rendon and Fletcher are already accounting for more than $81MM in 2023 and beyond, though, and a splash at the top of the free agent pitching market this winter would probably push their long-term commitments north of $100MM. Would they want to add another huge deal on top of that? That remains to be seen, particularly since they’ll probably earmark some funds for a hopeful Ohtani extension (more on that in a minute).

That could mean another year with a stopgap middle infield pickup. Last year’s José Iglesias addition didn’t pan out, but they could take a similar tack with Freddy Galvis at shortstop or Jonathan Villar, César Hernández or Josh Harrison at second base (with Fletcher sliding over to short). Perhaps the Cardinals and D-Backs would be willing to kick in some money to facilitate a trade involving Paul DeJong or Nick Ahmed, respectively. Neither would be the most exciting addition for Angels’ fans, but they’d at least meaningfully upgrade a defense that was among the league’s worst in 2021, as MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk explored in August.

It’d be a bit surprising if the Angels made a big addition in the outfield, since they have a promising group internally. Trout hasn’t played an inning outside center field since 2013, but there’s a case to be made for transitioning him into a corner spot moving forward. Public defensive metrics have pegged the three-time MVP as average or worse in center over the past couple seasons, and he’s now 30 years old coming off a major calf injury. Trout hasn’t rated disastrously in center field, and the Angels may not want to risk disrupting the future Hall of Famer for the sake of marginally improving the team’s defense. But rookie Brandon Marsh is probably a better defensive player than Trout is at this stage of their respective careers.

Regardless of the specific alignment, Trout and Marsh are probably going to play regularly in some capacity. That’s also true of former top prospect Jo Adell, who’s better suited in a corner. Upton fits best as a role player, although he still offers some power, particularly against left-handed pitching. That doesn’t leave a ton of room for outside help, but it’s not out of the question the Angels move one of Marsh or Adell for pitching. (Speculatively speaking, the Marlins are known to be targeting controllable outfielders and might have interest in either player as part of a deal for one of their starters). If a Marsh or Adell trade comes to fruition, then perhaps the Angels poke around the free agent outfield market.

Hanging over all of the Angels’ potential offseason upgrades is the hope for a long-term deal with Ohtani. The 27-year-old had been a highly valuable, extremely entertaining player in years past, but he’d never put everything together quite like he did in 2021. An AL MVP finalist, Ohtani is coming off a season unlike any we’ve seen in nearly a century. In addition to top-of-the-rotation numbers as a pitcher, he was the game’s fifth-best qualified hitter by wRC+. His 46 homers ranked third leaguewide, while his .592 slugging percentage checked in fourth.

Ohtani’s an unprecedented player, at least in recent history, so there’s of course no contractual precedent for a player like this. He’s already controllable for the next two seasons, guaranteed $5.5MM next year and scheduled for a similarly-unusual trip through arbitration next winter. The Angels would no doubt love to keep him beyond 2023, and Ohtani has expressed some openness to that possibility. As of late September, the two-way star told reporters that no extension talks were ongoing. Neither Minasian nor Ohtani’s representatives at CAA Sports were willing to divulge anything during this week’s GM Meetings about whether negotiations had taken place since (link via Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com).

Whether or not they’ve begun any sort of negotiations, it stands to reason Moreno and Minasian will map out how far the organization is willing to go to keep Ohtani in the fold. Even if nothing gets done this winter, the possibility of future discussions could limit how much payroll the Angels are willing to commit to other areas of the roster for 2023 and beyond.

As is typically the case, it’s shaping up to be an interesting winter in Orange County. The Angels should be among the top suitors for any number of top-of-the-rotation options, and they’re strong candidates to come away with at least one marquee starting pitcher. Add some bullpen and middle infield pursuits and a potential one-of-a-kind extension negotiation, and Minasian should be in for a busy first full offseason leading baseball operations.

Offseason Outlook: Chicago Cubs

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The Cubs traded away their core rather than extend them, and now the club is light on financial commitments as well as good MLB players.  Is this winter the time to strike?

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Jason Heyward, RF: $44MM through 2023
  • Kyle Hendricks, SP: $29.5MM through 2023.  Includes $16MM club option for 2024
  • Wade Miley, SP: $10MM through 2022
  • David Bote, 2B/3B: $13MM through 2024.  Includes $7MM club option for 2025 and $7.6MM club option for ’26

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

  • Wade Miley, SP: exercised $10MM club option after claiming off waivers from Reds

Free Agents

When the dust had settled after the July deadline, the Cubs had completed eight trades.  Of the nine players sent packing, seven are currently free agents, Trevor Williams might be non-tendered by the Mets, and the White Sox picked up Craig Kimbrel’s option.  Seeing Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, and Javier Baez in different uniforms marked the end of an era, and now the Cubs have a bunch of extra prospects and a clean financial slate.  They’ve also got a new second-in command in the front office behind Jed Hoyer in Carter Hawkins, hired from Cleveland.  The Cubs went on to hire Ehsan Bokhari from the Astros as assistant GM and Greg Brown from the Rays as the new hitting coach.  Furthermore, longtime executive Jason McLeod is leaving, and Randy Bush is moving into an advisory role.

Hoyer said in late September, “We plan to be really active in free agency.”  Trying to decode GM-speak is always difficult, but Hoyer elaborated a few weeks later, saying, “We have money to spend this winter. But it’s really important that we do that in an intelligent way.”  Furthermore, “We need to be active in a way that we feel like we’re getting the right value for the dollars we’re spending, and we’re also making sure that we’re not hindering ourselves going forward with expenditures for right now.”  Hoyer went on to caution against “winning the offseason.”

MLBTR projected its top 12 free agents to each receive contracts of at least five years, with the exception of record-setting three-year deal for Max Scherzer.  When I try to translate spending money “intelligently” and “not hindering ourselves going forward,” I take it to mean that the Cubs won’t sign any of those top dozen or so free agents.  Hoyer has stated that the Cubs “have a lot of holes to fill on this roster,” which is a euphemism for a lack of present MLB talent.  The Cubs will shop at the top end of the free agent market again, but I don’t think it will be this winter.

So what will the Cubs do?  Hoyer made it clear that adding pitchers, particularly those with strikeout ability, is the team’s top priority.  So why, then, did the club commit $10MM to 35-year-old lefty Wade Miley, who the payroll-cutting Reds cast off after a fine season?  Miley possesses a 90 mile per hour fastball and the sixth-worst strikeout rate in baseball this year among those with at least 160 innings.  The answer is that Miley is still a solid pitcher, the only cost was his salary, and it’s a one-year commitment.  For a team with no rotation locks beyond fellow soft-tosser Kyle Hendricks, the Cubs took the opportunity that fell into their lap.  Miley’s best attribute is his ability to generate weak contact, as he ranked fourth in baseball in average exit velocity.

The Cubs may yet add two or three starting pitchers to the rotation.  As far as potential free agent targets, let’s cross off those seeking five-plus years or an immediate shot at a championship.  We’re left with Carlos Rodon, Eduardo Rodriguez, Alex Wood, Yusei Kikuchi, and Jon Gray atop the strikeout leaderboard.  We believe Rodriguez may require a four-year deal, plus Boston’s qualifying offer means the Cubs would sacrifice their second-round draft pick.  Noah Syndergaard comes with that same draft pick problem, if he even reaches the open market.  Rolling the dice on Rodon makes some level of sense, in that the Cubs wouldn’t be hampered by a deal anywhere from one to three years, and he offers possible ace-like pitching without a $100MM commitment if the club rolls the dice on his health.  Rodon is the moon shot option, while Wood, Kikuchi, Gray, and James Paxton are safer choices.  Free agency also offers pitchers with decent velocity if not the strikeout rate, like Steven Matz, Garrett Richards, and Anthony DeSclafani.

The trade market is also an option for the Cubs, who could offer one year of Willson Contreras, deal away some of their prospect capital, or just take on an unwanted contract.  Strikeout pitchers who could be available in trade include Blake Snell, Yu Darvish, Tyler Mahle, Pablo Lopez, Sonny Gray, Frankie Montas, Zac Gallen, Sean Manaea, Chris Paddack, Chris Bassitt, Caleb Smith, and Luis Castillo.  The Rays’ Tyler Glasnow makes sense for the Cubs, even though he won’t be recovered from Tommy John surgery until the 2023 season.  Indeed, such a trade was considered back in July.   The Tigers’ Matthew Boyd, who underwent flexor tendon surgery in September, may be non-tendered by the Tigers and also makes sense for the Cubs.  Back when the Cubs had some money to burn, they signed Drew Smyly to a two-year, $10MM deal off Tommy John surgery with an eye entirely on the second season.

Three of the best trade targets are on the Reds, who may be reluctant to trade a starter to the division-rival Cubs in addition to Miley.  The idea of the Cubs reacquiring Darvish one year after his trade somewhat kicked off their rebuild is too amusing not to mention.  After the Cubs shipped Darvish and backup catcher Victor Caratini to San Diego for four low-minors prospects and Zach Davies, Darvish went on to post a 2.44 ERA through the season’s first half.  He got blasted (mostly by home runs) in the second half to the tune of a 6.65 ERA.  Darvish is owed $37MM over the next two years, and the Cubs suddenly have the payroll flexibility the Padres desire.  Just saying, it’d be fun to see.

The bullpen is another clear need for the Cubs, who are left with guys like Codi Heuer and Rowan Wick atop their depth chart.  A few cheap free agent investments make sense here.

The Cubs’ infield is mostly set, with Willson Contreras at catcher, Frank Schwindel at first, Nick Madrigal at second, Nico Hoerner at short, and Patrick Wisdom at third.  While Schwindel (age 30) and Wisdom (29) aren’t likely long-term solutions, they’ve at least earned at-bats in 2022.  The Cubs also have to see if a Madrigal-Hoerner double-play combination has staying power.

With one year of control remaining on Contreras, the Cubs enter into the familiar “extend or trade” territory that led to their July sell-off.  The free agent market is weak at the position, and teams like the Yankees, Guardians, Rangers, Marlins, and Giants might be seeking catching help.

Ian Happ avoided a possible non-tender by posting a 147 wRC+ over the season’s final two months.  He figures to hold down left field, while Rafael Ortega can keep center field warm until the Cubs deem top prospect Brennen Davis ready.  In right, there’s Jason Heyward and the $44MM owed to him over the next two years.  After a brutal 68 wRC+ in 2021, the Cubs probably can’t justify a roster spot for Heyward through all of ’22 unless he manages at least league average hitting.  While the Cubs could explore a potential bad contract swap, they’re in more of a position to take on dead money as a means of accumulating yet more prospects.

One outfield addition that could make sense for the Cubs is right fielder Seiya Suzuki.  It’s nearly impossible to project what level of contract Suzuki will require if he’s posted by the Hiroshima Carp, but he’s only 27 years old and is one of the best players in Japan.  Signing him would be akin to the club’s $30MM deal for Jorge Soler, which occurred about eight months into Jed Hoyer’s tenure with the team.

We’re about to embark on a free agency experience unlike anything we’ve seen in recent years, with a probable lockout followed by a compressed signing period.  If some players fall through the cracks in that scenario, the Cubs are well-positioned to make opportunistic strikes with one-year offers.  With Heyward, Hendricks, Miley, David Bote, Contreras, and Happ, the Cubs have an estimated $63.7MM committed for six players.  As a team capable of sustaining a payroll in excess of $200MM, the Cubs are a sleeping giant right now.  In reference to the Giants, Hoyer said, “They certainly didn’t win the offseason last year. They won the season.”  While I can say with certainty the Cubs won’t win 107 games in 2022, it’s clear that the team would prefer to avoid the top end of free agency this winter, become a surprise contender, and then look to flex its financial muscle.

2021-22 Top 50 MLB Free Agents With Predictions

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MLB Trade Rumors is proud to present our 16th annual Top 50 Free Agents list! For the entire list of free agents, plus the ability to filter by signing status, position, signing team, and qualifying offer status, check out our mobile-friendly free agent tracker here.

New to MLBTR? Sign up for our brand-new newsletter!  You can also follow us on Twitter, like us on Facebook, and download our free app for iOS and Android.

MLBTR writers Steve Adams and Anthony Franco joined me in this collaboration, debating free agent contracts and destinations for many hours over the past month.  One change for this year: we’ve included separate team picks for myself, Steve, and Anthony.

Last offseason was colored by the uncertainty of the pandemic.  While teams are still feeling the effects of reduced attendance, the biggest unknown is the expiration of the collective bargaining agreement on December 1st.  A lack of an agreement may prompt MLB to initiate a lockout, putting a freeze on free agency that could result in a compressed signing period once a new CBA is reached.  Absent an official transaction freeze, teams may operate cautiously, lacking insight on potential important changes involving free agency, arbitration, luxury tax thresholds, the minimum salary, draft pick compensation, and the addition of the designated hitter to the National League.

Rather than make unfounded assumptions about these many unknowns, we’ve made normal contract projections.  We don’t know when, but eventually a new collective bargaining agreement will be in place.

If you’d like to support the month-long effort that went into this list, please consider a subscription.  Check out all the benefits here!

Our free agent prediction contest is also officially open!  Make your picks here.  The contest will close at 11pm central time on Monday,  November 15th.

We vetted these as much as possible, but with 50 predictions and a volatile free agent and trade marketplace, we know we’ll be off on some.  Have your say on all of this in the comment section!  You can also check out the transcript of a live chat Steve and Tim held about this list on November 8th.

On to our top 50 free agents:

1. Carlos Correa.  Ten years, $320MM.

Tim Dierkes: Tigers / Steve Adams: Phillies / Anthony Franco: Tigers

In this winter’s star-studded class of free agent shortstops, we consider Correa the best.  The Astros drafted Correa first overall out of Puerto Rico Baseball Academy back in 2012, and he won the 2015 AL Rookie of the Year award despite debuting in June.  The 2016 season was a continuation of that success, and Correa seemed unstoppable.

However, in the three seasons that followed, Correa averaged only 98 games played per year due to a torn ligament in his thumb, multiple back injuries, and a cracked rib.  Correa was able to avoid the IL during the shortened 2020 season, yet posted just a 96 wRC+ at the plate.  At that point, Correa had played more than 110 games in a season only once, in 2016.

With plenty to prove in 2021, Correa delivered.  He played in 148 games, posting a 134 wRC+ at the plate.  Remarkably, Correa and Corey Seager have each played exactly 281 games with 1,182 plate appearances since 2019.  Correa’s 129 wRC+ ranks fifth among shortstops during that period, not far behind Seager, Trea Turner, and Xander Bogaerts (Fernando Tatis Jr. remains in a class by himself).

Correa’s shortstop defense sets him apart from his offensive peers.  Since 2018, Correa’s outs above average mark is on par with Andrelton Simmons, tied for third in the game among shortstops.  Francisco Lindor has better defensive numbers but has never hit the way Correa does.  It stands to reason that Lindor’s ten-year, $341MM extension with the Mets signed in April 2021 will be a benchmark for Correa.  And keep in mind that while Lindor and Correa’s contracts both begin with the 2022 season, Correa is more than ten months younger.  Correa should be able to remain at shortstop for the majority of his contract, which is not necessarily true of others on the market.

Correa’s postseason performance further bolsters his resume.  He’s had all kinds of walk-off moments in his 79 career postseason games, with a batting line of .272/.344/.505 and 18 home runs in 334 plate appearances.

Correa has mostly quieted questions about his ability to stay healthy, having played in more than 97% of regular season games since 2020.  That leaves one primary concern about our top free agent: his involvement in the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal.  Correa benefited from the team’s trash can scheme in at least 2017 and ’18, and possibly in 2019.  While Correa has spoken about feeling remorse, there has also been defiance in his comments after the scandal broke.  Perhaps that’s why the sign-stealing scandal might not roll off Correa’s back in quite the same way it seems to have with George Springer, who signed the largest contract of the previous offseason.

The boos may follow Correa on the road for his entire career, and he showed this year that doesn’t faze him.  But with several good alternatives on the market, certain big market teams — namely the Dodgers and Yankees — might not be able to stomach a long-term marriage with Correa.  The Dodgers have a potential in-house replacement for Seager anyway in Trea Turner.  The Yankees figure to at least be involved in Correa’s market, given their stated desire to improve at shortstop.  The Tigers, Phillies, Rangers, Angels, Mariners, and Cardinals are other potential suitors.  A reunion with the Astros is still possible as well, though the club never got past $125MM in their spring training extension offers.

Signed with Twins for three years, $105.3MM, with opt-outs after each year.

2.  Corey Seager.  Ten years, $305MM.

TD: Yankees / SA: Yankees / AF: Yankees

Seager, 28 in April, is one of the best-hitting shortstops in baseball.  Since 2020, only Fernando Tatis Jr. has outhit him.  He’s difficult to strike out, posted a career-best walk rate this year and since 2020 ranks third among all shortstops (min. 200 PAs) with a .239 ISO (slugging minus batting average).  Though the left-handed-hitting Seager has never topped 26 home runs in a season, he has 31 bombs in 147 games since ’20.  His key Statcast markers were all in the 80th percentile or better.

Seager didn’t set the world on fire in his 53 postseason plate appearances this year for the Dodgers, but he boasts trophies for NLCS and World Series MVP in 2020 and has ample October experience.  The former No. 18 overall draft pick (2012) won the NL Rookie of the Year and finished third in the MVP voting back in 2016.  A two-time All-Star, Seager also received MVP votes in the 2017 and ’20 seasons.  Seager’s defense generally falls into acceptable range, but there’s an expectation he’ll move off shortstop at some point in the middle of his contract.  At 6’4″, Seager, Correa, and Cal Ripken Jr. are the tallest regular shortstops in Major League history.

Major injuries have befallen Seager three times in his MLB career.  He played in only 26 regular season games in 2018 due to Tommy John and hip surgery.  This year in May, Seager was struck by a Ross Detwiler pitch that fractured his right hand, limiting him to 95 regular season games.  Seager raked upon his return, with a 169 wRC+ in 240 plate appearances.  He did, however, find himself with a new double play partner in Trea Turner.  Turner, under team control through 2022, was in his fifth year starring as the Nationals’ shortstop and moved to second base for the Dodgers only in deference to Seager.

After the easy call to make Seager a qualifying offer, it stands to reason that the Dodgers will make at least some attempt to retain their longtime shortstop.  But with Turner in tow, they hardly need to act out of desperation, opening the door for teams like the Yankees, Tigers, Phillies, Astros, Angels, Rangers, and Cardinals to make a play.

Signed with Rangers for ten years, $325MM.

3.  Freddie Freeman.  Six years, $180MM.

TD: Braves / SA: Braves / AF: Red Sox

Freeman, 32, has been one of the best hitters in baseball dating all the way back to 2013.  His lowest single-season wRC+ mark during those nine seasons is 132, and he surged up to 186 in the shortened 2020 season to win the NL MVP.  Freeman has gotten MVP votes in five additional seasons and is a five-time All-Star.  Having signed an extension back in 2014, Freeman has been a Braves fixture for more than 11 seasons.

With such a beloved and consistently excellent player, it’s difficult to picture Freeman in another uniform.  However, despite the Braves’ attempts to lock him up, Freeman has reached the open market.  The obvious comparable is Paul Goldschmidt’s five-year, $130MM extension from spring 2019, but it’s unknown where each side stands relative to that marker.  It’s also worth noting that even with the Braves’ championship, signing Freeman at $30MM+ per year will leave Liberty Media with limited financial flexibility to improve the team unless they raise payroll to new heights or shed existing commitments.  If the Braves somehow allow Freeman to leave, the Yankees, Red Sox, Padres, Giants, Mariners, Mets, and Dodgers could be in play, but it’s tough to let a legacy player like this walk away on the heels of a World Series win.

Signed with Dodgers for six years, $162MM.

4.  Kris Bryant.  Six years, $160MM.

TD: Mariners / SA: Mariners / AF: Mets

The Cubs selected Bryant second overall in the 2013 draft out of the University of San Diego.  The club held off on starting the clock for his 2015 Rookie of the Year season just enough to secure control of his 2021 season, which led to a grievance that Bryant ultimately lost.  Bryant seemingly peaked early, ranking third among all position players in wins above replacement from 2015-17, a period that included his 2016 MVP award and the Cubs’  World Series championship.  Two of Bryant’s seasons have been marred by injury: a shoulder injury that limited him to 102 games in 2018, and an assortment of minor injuries that resulted in him playing 34 of 60 games in 2020.

That brief ’20 season was the only one in which Bryant posted a subpar batting line.  While he bounced back this year with a 123 wRC+, that still fell short of anything he did from 2015-19.  He was never a standout defensive third baseman, which prompted the rebranding of Bryant into a jack-of-all-trades defender.  He logged 55 games at third base, 48 in left field, 39 in right field, 19 in center field, and 12 at first base this year for the Cubs and Giants.  As Bryant approaches his 30th birthday, he seems to have settled in as a quality hitter with defensive versatility, rather than the Hall of Fame-track superstar he was when he burst onto the scene.

Bryant once seemed a lock for well over $200MM, but we don’t see that happening now that he’s actually reached free agency.  He is aided by being ineligible for a qualifying offer.  The Giants will surely keep an eye on his market, but president of baseball ops Farhan Zaidi has plainly stated that the rotation is his top priority.  And, after the season, Zaidi also characterized the acquisition of Bryant like a move that was unique to the 2021 season:

“For us, the move at the deadline was really about pushing chips in with this team, which we thought was a really special team and had a chance to do some special things and did. But we recognize that he’s a superstar talent and it’s going to be a really competitive market for his services. I’m sure we’ll have conversations there, but he’s going to have a long line of suitors, so we’ll just have to see how that develops.”

The Giants can’t be firmly ruled out, but the Mariners, Rangers, Mets, Blue Jays, Phillies, and Padres could also be suitors.

Signed with Rockies for seven years, $182MM.

5.  Kevin Gausman.  Six years, $138MM.

TD: Giants / SA: Giants / AF: Giants

Gausman began his career with a solid run for the Orioles after being selected fourth overall in 2012 out of Louisiana State.  He was dealt to Atlanta at the 2018 trade deadline as the O’s kicked off their still-ongoing rebuild.  After struggling through 16 starts in 2019, the Braves let Gausman go to the Reds as a waiver claim.  Cincinnati used him as a reliever to finish the season.  It seems that neither the Braves nor the Reds felt that Gausman’s abilities justified an arbitration salary north of $10MM, and the Reds non-tendered him.

That’s where the Giants jumped in with a $9MM free agent contract.  Under the Giants’ tutelage, Gausman was superb in the abbreviated 2020 season, enough so that the club felt justified in making an $18.9MM qualifying offer.  Rather than hit the free agent market with that burden, Gausman accepted the offer.  A two- or three-year deal might have been on the table had he rejected and hit the market, but the decision to bet on himself by accepting that QO now looks prescient.

Gausman went out in 2021 and proved his 2020 breakout was no fluke, making his first All-Star team.  The righty ramped up the use of his splitter this year, to the point where he threw that or his fastball nearly 90% of the time.  Overall for the Giants, Gausman has a 3.00 ERA, 30.0 K%, and 6.5 BB% in 251 2/3 innings.  Gausman’s bet on himself paid off, and he hits the market ineligible for a qualifying offer.  If Gausman’s price gets too high for the Giants’ liking, he could land with the Tigers, Mariners, Angels, Twins, Blue Jays, Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, or Cardinals.

Signed with Blue Jays for five years, $110MM.

6.  Marcus Semien.  Six years, $138MM.

TD: Red Sox / SA: Dodgers / AF: Angels

Semien settled in as Oakland’s dependable starting shortstop as of 2015, but his offense skyrocketed in 2019 en route to a third-place finish in AL MVP voting.  An unimpressive regular season in 2020 led to Semien betting on himself in free agency, signing a one-year, $18MM deal with the Blue Jays and moving to second base.  With the Jays, Semien established that 2020 was the fluke, as his monster 45 home run 2021 campaign will net him MVP votes once again.  Semien’s Statcast batting metrics don’t stand out this year, but you can’t argue with the results.

Defensively, Semien may profile better at second base than shortstop, but he’s played significantly more short in his career and should at least be good for a few years there.  Semien does carry the weight of a qualifying offer, but interest should be robust for clubs that missed out on Correa and Seager or prefer not to shop in the $300MM aisle.  His market also may differ from Correa and Seager in that he’s more likely to be signed as a second baseman.  As a 31-year-old, Semien may be limited to a six-year pact, itself hard to achieve at this age.  The Blue Jays will surely attempt to re-sign Semien, but otherwise the Phillies, Red Sox, Yankees, White Sox, Tigers, Twins, Astros, Angels, Mariners, Rangers, Cardinals, and Dodgers are other potential matches.

Signed with Rangers for seven years, $175MM.

7.  Robbie Ray.  Five years, $130MM.

TD: Blue Jays / SA: Blue Jays / AF: Blue Jays

Drafted by the Nationals out of high school in the 12th round in 2010, Ray was traded to the Tigers in the December 2013 Doug Fister deal.  A year later, Ray was dealt to the Diamondbacks in the three-way trade that sent Didi Gregorius to the Yankees.  Ray found success in his first five seasons for the D’Backs as a high-strikeout, high-walk, homer-prone southpaw.  In 2017, he made the All-Star team and finished seventh in the NL Cy Young voting.  But in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, Ray’s already-high walk rate jumped to an untenable 20.1% through seven starts, and with free agency looming he was shipped to Toronto mostly as a salary dump.

Ray’s brief effort for the 2020 Jays didn’t stand out, and he still walked batters at a higher rate than he had from 2015-19 in Arizona.  Toronto saw something they liked nonetheless, making an early free agent strike by re-upping him to a one-year, $8MM deal in November last year.

Ray began the 2021 season on the IL for a bruised elbow suffered falling down some stairs.  After a six-walk outing on April 18th, the notion of Ray contending for the AL Cy Young award would have been laughable — but that’s exactly what he did.  The 30-year-old lefty led all of baseball with 248 strikeouts, also solving his longstanding walk issue with a career-best 6.9 BB%.  Ray’s 2.84 ERA was the best in the American League.  As Kaitlyn McGrath of The Athletic put it, “How Ray went from good to elite took a change in his mechanics, a change in his approach and a change in his physique.”  Still, it wasn’t a radical overhaul in terms of pitch selection for Ray, who has remained a fastball-slider pitcher.

Ray showed strong control over a five-month period this year.  For a potential new team, how much does that erase his 13 BB% from the three prior years?  It’s also worth considering that Ray allowed a home run to 4.3% of batters faced this year, 19th-worst in MLB among those with at least 100 innings pitched.  While Ray is about nine months younger than fellow top free agent Gausman, the lefty bears the burden of a qualifying offer.  Their markets figure to be similar.

Signed with Mariners for five years, $115MM, with an opt-out after the third year.

8.  Trevor Story.  Six years, $126MM.

TD: Phillies / SA: Rangers / AF: Astros

Story, 29 this month, ranked second among MLB shortstops with 13.6 WAR from 2018-20.  At the plate, he posted a 124 wRC+ during that time and was a regular 30-homer threat.  Story was one of the game’s best defensive shortstops by Outs Above Average in 2019, though his OAA marks have been pedestrian since.  Amid trade rumors and right elbow inflammation, the longtime Rockie slipped to a 100 wRC+ at the plate.  But after the trade deadline passed, Story rallied for a 127 wRC+ that was more in line with his career work.

The Rockies chose not to trade Story, instead tagging him with a qualifying offer.  Like most Rockies regulars, Story has been a much better hitter at Coors Field.  We’ve seen plenty of hitters leave that comfortable hitting environment and continue to succeed — Matt Holliday, DJ LeMahieu, Nolan Arenado, Corey Dickerson, Seth Smith, Dexter Fowler, and Chris Iannetta among them.  Others, like Brad Hawpe and Troy Tulowitzki, could not sustain their success.  And still others, like Garrett Atkins and Carlos Gonzalez, began their decline while still in a Rockies uniform.

It’d be overly simplistic to suggest Story’s offensive success is a product of Coors.  And even with his worst season at the plate since 2017, Story still posted 3.5 WAR.  By some metrics, he has remained an above-average defender.  Though he may not have the youth or ceiling of Correa or Seager or the platform year of Semien, Story should be highly coveted in free agency.  The Astros, Rangers, Yankees, Tigers, Twins, Angels, Phillies, and Cardinals may be involved.

Signed with Red Sox for six years, $140MM.  Can opt out after four years, at which point the Red Sox can retain him by picking up a seventh-year option.

9.  Max Scherzer.  Three years, $120MM.

TD: Dodgers / SA: Dodgers / AF: Dodgers

Scherzer, 37, has already put together a Hall of Fame career in his 14 years in MLB, mainly with the Tigers and Nationals.  He won a Cy Young in 2013, ’16, and ’17 and finished top-five in four other seasons.  In 2021, Scherzer showed no signs of slowing down, and he’s in the running for the top pitching award once again.  Not long after landing his fourth All-Star game start, Scherzer was traded by the Nationals to the Dodgers along with Trea Turner in a blockbuster deal.

Scherzer’s dominance only deepened with the Dodgers, and overall he finished with a 2.46 ERA, a 34.1 K% that ranked second in the NL, and a 5.2 BB% that ranked fifth.  Scherzer’s postseason experience is extensive, but after getting his first career save against the Giants in NLDS Game 5, Scherzer started Game 2 of the NLCS and started feeling the effects.  Arm fatigue kept him from Game 6, and that’s as far as the Dodgers went.

Even at 37, Scherzer remains a Game 1 ace, and bidding for his services among playoff hopefuls will be fierce.  He’s free of a qualifying offer, too.  Three-year deals are exceedingly rare at Scherzer’s age, yet we still think he can get there.  We also believe that given the relatively short term, Scherzer can surpass MLB’s record average annual value of $36MM and possibly even become the game’s first $40MM AAV player.  The Dodgers should have the inside track, but otherwise the Giants, Angels, Astros, Blue Jays, Mariners, Tigers, Red Sox, Yankees, Mets, Padres, and Cardinals could join the bidding.

Signed with Mets for three years, $130MM, with an opt-out after the second year.

10.  Nick Castellanos.  Five years, $115MM.

TD: Rangers / SA: Padres / AF: Padres

Castellanos, 30 in March, posted a 140 wRC+ on the season that ranked third among free agents, behind Kyle Schwarber and the now-retired Buster Posey.  His 34 home runs ranked third behind Marcus Semien and Kyle Seager.  Aside from the lost 2020 season, Castellanos has posted at least a 122 wRC+ in every year since 2018.  He also shows well in Statcast metrics.  Castellanos is one of the best hitters available in free agency this year.

Castellanos made the easy choice to opt out of the remaining two years and $34MM owed to him by the Reds, who have since tagged him with a qualifying offer.  Aside from the QO, the knock on Castellanos is his defense, which has been consistently below-average.  By Outs Above Average, he was the second-worst right fielder in the game this year.  Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimare Zone Rating weren’t quite so bearish but still agreed he was a below-average outfielder once again.  Still, there’s a good chance the DH comes to the NL in 2022, and Castellanos could draw interest from the Rangers, Rockies, Marlins, White Sox, Reds and Mets.

Signed with Phillies for five years, $100MM.

11.  Marcus Stroman.  Five years, $110MM.

TD: Angels / SA: Twins / AF: Dodgers

Stroman, 31 in May, opted out of the 2020 season due to the pandemic an, and then accepted a one-year, $18.9MM qualifying offer to remain with the Mets.  Like Gausman, that decision worked out well.  Stroman ranked eighth in the NL with a 3.02 ERA this year, and was one of only seven MLB starters to make 33 regular season starts.  Of the last five seasons in which Stroman has played, he’s started at least 32 games in four of them.

Stroman’s game is about keeping the ball on the ground and limiting walks.  His strikeout rate is generally below average, and even this past season’s career-best 21.6% mark was shy of the 22.6% league-average among starters.  It’s worth noting that Stroman did set new career-highs in swinging-strike rate and opponents’ chase rate.

The grounder/command-oriented approach isn’t as typical as it once was, but Stroman has managed to defy ERA estimators like SIERA by a wide margin in three separate seasons: 2017, 2019, and 2021.  Even if he settles in as a mid-rotation arm, Stroman is free of a qualifying offer and will be a popular free agent.  He’ll draw interest from the same group of teams that are attracted to Gausman and Ray.

Signed with Cubs for three years, $71MM, with an opt-out after the second year.

12.  Javier Baez.  Five years, $100MM.

TD: Rangers / SA: Tigers / AF: Rangers

Baez, nicknamed El Mago, is one of baseball’s most exciting and popular players.  He’s hit 94 home runs in the last three full MLB seasons.  Baez’s flashy defense earned him a Gold Glove in 2020, and he led all shortstops in outs above average in ’19.  His tags are a thing of beauty.  He adds value as a baserunner, somehow inducing ridiculous plays like this one.

Baez is also a hacker at the plate, striking out in more than a third of his plate appearances this year.  He’s not big on drawing walks, getting on base that way only about 5% of the time.  The result is an on-base percentage that generally falls short of .320.  Baez benefits immensely from writing off 2020, as he was among one of the worst hitters in the game and seemingly scared the Cubs off extension talks.

The Cubs shipped Baez to the Mets this year near the trade deadline, freeing him of a potential qualifying offer and pushing him to second base to play alongside his friend Francisco Lindor.  At the end of August, Baez was sitting on a .290 OBP and a 102 wRC+, apologizing for a thumbs-down gesture he started as a way of booing Mets fans.  Then Baez went off with a 169 wRC+ in the season’s final month, helping pull his overall wRC+ to 116.

Baez offers an exciting blend of power, versatile defense, baserunning, and marketability.  If the Mets don’t retain him, his market should be similar to that of Story.

Signed with Tigers for six years, $140MM, with an opt-out after the second year.

13.  Starling Marte.  Four years, $80MM.

TD: Mets / SA: Giants / AF: Phillies

Marte, 33, is the only starting-caliber center fielder on the free agent market this winter.  He played six full seasons for the Pirates, tallying at least 3 WAR in each of them.  The Bucs signed Marte to an extension in 2014 that gave them club options on his first two years of free agency.  Those options were exercised, and Marte played those two seasons for the Diamondbacks, Marlins, and A’s.

Though Marte is an older free agent, he benefits from a lack of center field alternatives, ineligibility for a qualifying offer, and the best season of his career.  Marte’s well-rounded contributions this year included a career-best 133 wRC+ and the most baserunning value generated by any player.  Speedy as Marte is, he wasn’t among the 40 fastest regulars in the game this year in terms of average sprint speed (as measured by Statcast).  No matter: he led all of MLB with 47 stolen bases, getting caught only five times.

Marte wisely rejected a reported three-year, $30MM extension offer from the Marlins before his July trade.  We think a four-year deal is justified.  Players like George Springer, DJ LeMahieu, Josh Donaldson, and Lorenzo Cain have all signed major free-agent deals that pay through age 36 or 37, and Marte should add to that list.  The Giants, Yankees, Phillies, Mets, Braves, Rockies, and Dodgers are among the potential suitors.

Signed with Mets for four years, $78MM.

14.  Eduardo Rodriguez.  Five years, $70MM.

TD: Twins / SA: Tigers / AF: Twins

Rodriguez, 29 in April, joined the Red Sox at the 2014 trade deadline in a trade with the Orioles for Andrew Miller.   Since making his big league debut in 2015, Rodriguez had made at least 20 starts in every season until 2020.  He battled some knee injuries earlier in his career, culminating in surgery after the 2017 season.  The southpaw’s finest year came in 2019, when he finished sixth in AL Cy Young voting.  Unfortunately, Rodriguez got COVID-19 in June of 2020 and developed a heart condition called myocarditis.  He missed the 2020 season and was barred from physical activity for three months.

Thankfully, 2021 marked a successful comeback season for Rodriguez.  The lefty posted career-bests in strikeout and walk rate, with a K-BB% that ranked 15th in the game among those with at least 150 innings.  He also ranked among the game’s best in terms of average exit velocity (90th percentile) and opponents’ hard-hit rate (87th percentile) and pitched well in his final two postseason starts.  Rodriguez did post a career-worst 4.74 ERA, driven in large part by a .363 batting average on balls in play.  Virtually any fielding-independent metric is far more bullish on Rodriguez, who posted a 3.64 SIERA and 3.32 FIP.

We believe Rodriguez might surprise some people with a four or even-five year deal this winter, although Boston’s decision to issue a qualifying offer figures to put a dent in his market.  We still believe teams not quite willing to pay $23-25MM AAVs for starting pitching might turn to Rodriguez, and he’s young enough to entice clubs that are trying to get better but don’t quite expect to win the World Series in 2022.

Signed with Tigers for five years, $77MM, with an opt-out after the second year.

15.  Kyle Schwarber.  Four years, $70MM.

TD: Rockies / SA: Blue Jays / AF: Nationals

Schwarber, 29 in March, posted a 145 wRC+ that ranked first among all free agents and 11th in baseball among players with at least 400 plate appearances.  It was basically four months worth of elite hitting, as Schwarber struggled in April and missed over a month during the summer with a hamstring strain.  As he recovered from the injury, the Red Sox acquired Schwarber in a trade with Nationals.

Drafted fourth overall by the Cubs in 2014, Schwarber put up a 115 wRC+ for the club over the course of 492 games before struggling in the shortened 2020 season.  He had his share of big postseason hits for the Cubs, including a dramatic return to DH in the 2016 playoffs after missing nearly the entire season due to a torn ACL and LCL.  The Cubs chose not to tender Schwarber a contract after 2020, and he signed for one year and $10MM with the Nationals.  Prior to ’20, the Cubs generally shielded the left-handed-hitting Schwarber against southpaw pitchers, letting him face them in fewer than 20% of plate appearances.  This year, there were no such concerns: Schwarber saw lefties 31.6% of the time and posted a 119 wRC+ against them.

Though he was drafted as a catcher, the Cubs gradually phased Schwarber out of that position and into left field.  He’s graded out as below-average defensively.  The Red Sox used Schwarber in 19 games at first base, a position he had not played for the Cubs, given the presence of Anthony Rizzo.

The potential addition of the DH to the NL would help Schwarber, who is ineligible for a qualifying offer.  After out-producing Nick Castellanos on a rate basis, Schwarber should see a similar market as one of the best bat-first players available.  Castellanos has the more consistent track record and doesn’t have the history of platoon issues, so he gets the nod over Schwarber in terms of earning power for our list purposes despite a similarly productive 2021 season.

Signed with Phillies for four years, $79MM.

16.  Chris Taylor.  Four years, $64MM.

TD: Marlins / SA: Red Sox / AF: Mariners

The Dodgers acquired Taylor from the Mariners in June 2016, as a means of improving infield depth.  Taylor added the outfield to his repertoire in a breakout 2017 season, and won the NLCS MVP award that year.  Taylor has remained an above-average hitter ever since, and has a 114 wRC+ over the last three seasons.  Though he struggled to hit in September this year, “CT3” left a strong final impression with his huge playoff showing.  It was Taylor’s walk-off homer that propelled the Dodgers past the Cardinals in the Wild Card round, and he slugged three home runs in Game 5 of the NLCS to help the Dodgers force a Game 6.

Taylor has been deployed at second base, shortstop, third base, center field, and left field in his career.  Though he’s sometimes compared to Ben Zobrist, Taylor reaches free agency at an earlier age and with more defensive versatility.  He may not have quite the offensive track record Zobrist carried into free agency, but he’s very arguably a more attractive target for teams.

As expected, the Dodgers issued a qualifying offer to Taylor.  We expect him to take his shot at a multiyear deal, but certain clubs may shy away from surrendering a draft pick or two to sign him.  Taylor’s ability to play all over the diamond still makes him a potential fit for many teams, including the Blue Jays, White Sox, Mariners, Braves, Marlins, Mets, Phillies, Rockies, Giants, and Cubs.

Signed with Dodgers for four years, $60MM.

17.  Raisel Iglesias.  Four years, $56MM.

TD: Dodgers / SA: Astros / AF: Blue Jays

Iglesias is easily the best reliever of this free agent class.  He defected from Cuba in 2013, signing a seven-year deal with the Reds the following year.  Iglesias worked as a starter in 2015 before finding his home in the bullpen.  After his 2018 season, Iglesias inked a three-year, $24.125MM extension.  Seeking payroll relief, the Reds shipped Iglesias to the Angels in December 2020 — a trade that amounted to a pure salary dump.

Iglesias, 32 in January, ranked third among all relievers and first among free-agent relievers with a 33.3 K-BB%.  Among the 398 pitchers to throw at least 40 innings in 2021 (starters and relievers alike), Iglesias ranked 10th in strikeout rate (37.7%), 14th in walk rate (4.4%), ninth in chase rate on pitches out of the strike zone (39.5%) and third in swinging-strike rate (20.6%). None of those 398 pitchers posted a higher combined percentage of swinging strikes and called strikes (36.8%).

Iglesias’ primary flaw is that he’s allowed 1.4 homers per nine frames over the past four seasons.  It’d be charitable to attribute that solely to his time in the homer-happy Great American Ball Park, as he also coughed up 11 homers while playing his home games at the much friendlier Angel Stadium in 2021.

The Angels issued Iglesias a qualifying offer, so signing him will require the forfeit of draft picks.  Any deep-pocketed contender seeking a lockdown stopper at the back end of their bullpen figures to be in on Iglesias, who could take aim at Liam Hendriks’ $18MM AAV record for relievers.  The Blue Jays, Astros, Red Sox, Dodgers, Phillies, and Padres are potential suitors.

Signed with Angels for four years, $58MM.

18.  Carlos Rodon.  One year, $25MM. 

TD: Astros / SA: Red Sox / AF: Angels

Drafted third overall by the White Sox out of NC State in 2014, Rodon was part of the team’s rotation the following year.  The hard-throwing lefty with the nasty slider was limited to 12 starts in 2017 due to a biceps injury, undergoing arthroscopic shoulder surgery in the offseason that held him to 20 starts the following year.  Rodon still served as Chicago’s Opening Day starter in 2019, but by May he was under the knife for Tommy John surgery.  Rodon returned for four appearances in 2020, and was non-tendered by the White Sox in December with little fanfare.  In late January of this year, Rodon returned to the club on a one-year, $3MM deal that turned out to be one of the best bargains of the offseason.

Working with new White Sox pitching coach Ethan Katz, Rodon made changes to his delivery and came out of the gate with guns blazing.  He threw a no-hitter in his second start of the season, made his first All-Star team, and had his ERA as low as 2.14 after a dominating start on July 18th in Houston.

Having thrown just 42 1/3 innings from all of 2019-20, Rodon seemed to wear down at this point.  He averaged more than six innings per start and 96 miles per hour on his fastball through July 18th, but only 4.5 innings per start and 94.1 miles per hour thereafter.  Rodon dipped all the way to 91 miles per hour against the Reds on September 29th, and then on 12 days rest in a 56-pitch ALDS start, he was able to crank it back up to 96.  On the season, Rodon pitched on four days of rest only six times. It can be argued that he’s best-served as part of a six-man rotation.  Despite the velocity dip, Rodon still rates as the hardest-throwing starting pitcher on the market this winter.

Even in those somewhat worrying final nine starts, Rodon was able to punch out 28.9% of batters with a 3.26 ERA.  His overall season numbers — 2.37 ERA, 34.6 K%, and 6.7 BB% — are off the charts.  So what will Rodon do, coming off a dominant season in the middle of which he seemed to run out of gas?  According to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, the White Sox “decided at the end of the season that they were not going to bring Rodon back,” and the club was surprisingly unwilling to even issue the one-year qualifying offer.  Is that just the White Sox being frugal, or is it a red flag regarding Rodon’s health?  We expect Rodon to receive multiyear offers this winter, though he might be better-served to take a large one-year deal and establish his health.

Rodon’s free agency should be fascinating, especially without the burden of a qualifying offer.  He’ll need a team with a high tolerance for injury risk and a preference for high-AAV short-term deals.  The Dodgers, Giants, Braves, Red Sox, Yankees, Mariners, and Astros could be candidates.

Signed with Giants for two years, $44MM, with an opt-out if he pitches 110 innings.

19.  Jon Gray.  Four years, $56MM.

TD: Tigers / SA: Angels / AF: Giants

Drafted third overall by the Rockies in 2013 out of the University of Oklahoma, Gray never quite put together an All-Star caliber season in his six-plus years with the club.  He’s still been one of the best pitchers ever drafted by Colorado.  The righty was one of the five-hardest throwing starting pitchers from 2016-19.  While he’s not at his 96 mile per hour heyday at age 30, he still ranked 13th in average fastball velocity this year among those with at least 140 innings, and third among free agents.

Gray has made at least 25 starts in each full season dating back to 2018.  Outside of his eight-start 2020 season, which ended early with shoulder inflammation, Gray has always posted an above-average strikeout rate.  This year, Gray hit the IL in June for a right flexor strain, missing three weeks.  He exited a late August start with forearm tightness, but that turned out to be a minimum IL stay.  The injuries did not affect his velocity, though he did surrender 11 earned runs in his final 8 2/3 innings, pushing his ERA from 4.17 to 4.59.

The Rockies declined to trade Gray at the July deadline, stating their intent to extend him.  In late September the club offered “a three-year deal in the range of $35 million to $40 million,” according to Nick Groke and Eno Sarris of The Athletic.  He rejected.

Front offices are likelier to be more attracted to what’s under the hood than his surface-level 4.59 ERA.  The bet here is that teams will look past the up-and-down nature of Gray’s career and view him as an upside play who’ll thrive away from Coors Field and with more robust information and data at his disposal.  Gray is a former No. 3 overall pick who averages 95 mph or better on his heater.  He’s better than league-average in terms of strikeout rate, walk rate and ground-ball rate for his career, with promising swinging-strike rates on a near-yearly basis.  Some teams will believe they can turn Gray into a slam-dunk playoff starter.

The Rockies’ interest in retaining Gray was not enough for them to issue a qualifying offer, so they must have found the potential one-year price too high.  Now, Gray gets to enjoy his first time through free agency without the QO dragging him down.  The Angels, Blue Jays, Tigers, Twins, Mariners, Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Giants, Dodgers, Cardinals and just about any team looking at rotation help could consider him.  Gray’s upside and price point (relative to the top of the market) could also pique the interest of teams that aren’t looking at 2022 as a must-win season, putting him in play for clubs like the Rangers, Cubs and Nationals.

Signed with Rangers for four years, $56MM.

20.  Seiya Suzuki.  Five years, $55MM.

TD: Phillies / SA: Rangers / AF: Rangers

Perhaps an unknown name to many who are viewing this list, Suzuki is a 27-year-old outfielder who is expected to be posted by the Hiroshima Carp this offseason.  We’ve received a broad range of opinions on Suzuki when surveying teams and scouts who’ve seen him play in Japan.  That’s likely indicative of the volatility and uncertainty that is inherent to signing star players from overseas, but the most bullish outlooks on Suzuki peg him as an everyday right fielder with more than enough power to hit in the middle of a big league lineup.  Dylan Hernandez of the L.A. Times cited a scout who called Suzuki the “best player in Japan” in an August profile of the slugger, and at least one evaluator to whom we spoke echoed that sentiment.

Suzuki won’t turn 28 until next August and is putting the finishing touches on another dominant season in NPB. Through 530 plate appearances this season, he’s posted a .319/.436/.640 batting line with 38 home runs, 26 doubles and nine steals (in 13 tries). Dating back to 2018, the right-handed-hitting Suzuki has put together a combined .319/.435/.592 batting line with 121 home runs, 115 doubles, four triples and 44 stolen bases (albeit in 72 attempts) through 2167 plate appearances.

Unlike many sluggers, including countryman Yoshi Tsutsugo, Suzuki achieves this production without selling out for the power. Since 2018, he’s fanned in only 16.4 percent of his plate appearances — compared to a nearly identical 16 percent walk rate. Suzuki has played some center field in the past, though no one we spoke to believes he’ll be a regular there. He has four NPB Gold Gloves for his work in right field, however, and while big league evaluators don’t seem convinced he’ll be an elite defender in MLB, the consensus seems to be that he’ll be a strong-armed, above-average right fielder.

The risk is always considerable when signing top-tier talent from other professional leagues, be it NPB, the KBO or the Cuban National Series. Suzuki is a legitimate superstar in NPB, however, with tools that are loud enough to forecast him as a Major League regular. A 25-homer bat with solid right field defense sounds an awful lot like Avisail Garcia, who places lower on this list — but Suzuki’s youth, huge walk rates and the upside of the unknown give him an edge for us, even if it’s possible they profile as similar players.

The contract we’re predicting for Suzuki would come with a $10.125MM posting fee, bringing the total outlay to $65.125MM. As always, it’s possible (or even probable) that his representatives will ponder the possibility of working an opt-out clause into the deal, perhaps allowing him to re-enter the market if he proves himself through his first two to three seasons. It’d be tough for a contender to just plug Suzuki right into its lineup, though teams like the Giants, Braves and Brewers certainly represent on-paper fits. Suzuki seems like a better fit for a club looking to turn the corner and willing to take on some risk, however, which could open him up to the Marlins, Cubs, Rangers, Tigers and Nationals.

Signed with Cubs for five years, $85MM, plus $14.625MM posting fee.

21.  Anthony Rizzo.  Three years, $45MM.

TD: Marlins / SA: Red Sox / AF: Braves

As the longtime face of the Cubs, it seemed like the club would hammer out an extension with Rizzo even if they intended to take a step back in 2022.  He’d already signed a seven-year extension in 2013, which turned into a nine-year contract once both club options were exercised.  As of March 31st of this year, Cubs GM Jed Hoyer was “very confident” a deal would get done and Rizzo had used the word “optimistic.”  The Cubs’ initial offer was reportedly for five years and $70MM, while Rizzo sought something closer to Paul Goldschmidt’s $130MM deal.  An agreement was not reached, and once the Cubs fell out of contention, Rizzo was traded to the Yankees.

At age 32, Rizzo’s play seems more solid than spectacular.  He’s posted a 109 wRC+ in 819 plate appearances since 2020, roughly on par with Josh Bell, Jonathan Schoop, Miguel Sano, and Eric Hosmer.  To sign Rizzo to a deal well beyond our projection would require placing a large value on intangibles, or expecting him to defy the aging curve and return to his 2019 form.  Still, Rizzo is free of a qualifying offer and faces limited competition at first base unless Freddie Freeman and/or Brandon Belt make it to the market.  Many clubs could find a spot for him, especially if the NL DH adds flexibility.

Signed with Yankees for two years, $32MM, with an opt-out.

22.  Anthony DeSclafani.  Three years, $42MM.

TD: Mets / SA: Mariners / AF: Cardinals

DeSclafani had put together some solid 3-WAR type seasons for the Reds in 2015 and 2019, but he scuffled in 2020 with a right teres major strain that limited him to seven starts.  The Giants jumped in with a one-year, $6MM contract and a rotation job.  The result was a 3.17 ERA that ranked 11th in the NL among those with at least 150 innings.

In five of the past seven seasons, DeSclafani has started at least 20 games — the exceptions being the shortened 2020 season and 2017, when he missed the season due to a ligament issue in his right elbow (but notably avoided surgery). In four of his five mostly healthy seasons, “Disco” has pitched to a 4.05 ERA or better.

DeSclafani’s skills and history suggest he’s more of a 4.00 ERA type pitcher than the 3.17 level he showed in 2021, but that would still be plenty valuable for clubs seeking mid-rotation innings at a reasonable price. We discussed whether a four-year deal was possible and agreed it’s not out of the question, but we see a three-year deal as the likelier outcome.

Though Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi issued a qualifying offer to Brandon Belt this offseason and Kevin Gausman last winter, he chose not to take the plunge on DeSclafani.  We believe DeSclafani would have accepted, and perhaps the Giants didn’t want to tie up that hefty one-year salary so early in the offseason.  DeSclafani may yet return to the Giants, but he’s now free to explore the market without being hampered by the QO.  The Tigers, Royals, Twins, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Angels, Mariners, Rangers, Mets, Nationals, and Cubs are among the other teams that make sense.

Signed with Giants for three years, $36MM.

23.  Justin Verlander.  Two years, $40MM.

TD: Giants / SA: Giants / AF: Braves

Like Scherzer, Verlander is a future Hall of Famer likely to sign a high-AAV, short-term deal.  The difference is that Verlander, 39 in February, underwent Tommy John surgery in October 2020.  He missed almost the entirety of that season and all of 2021, but won the AL Cy Young award in 2019 and finished second in 2018.

Verlander will be 17 months from his surgery in March of next year, so he should be able to have a normal Spring Training (barring a lockout).  Even if his 220 inning days are behind him, Verlander will appeal greatly to contenders.  Though Verlander has pitched only six innings since 2020, the Astros issued him a qualifying offer.  In October, Astros owner Jim Crane suggested Verlander will be “looking for a contract of some length,” implying perhaps a two-year pact.  If things somehow don’t work out between Verlander and the Astros, the Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays, Tigers, Angels, Mariners, Braves, Mets, Cardinals, Dodgers, Padres, and Giants could be interested.

Signed with Astros for one year, $25MM.  Gains $25MM player option for 2023 with 130 innings pitched.

24.  Avisail Garcia.  Three years, $36MM.

TD: Royals / SA: Marlins / AF: Rockies

Garcia, 30, put together a solid season in 2021.  He posted a 115 wRC+ with a career-best 29 home runs in 135 games as the Brewers’ right fielder.  Defensively, he seems to be at least average, depending on your metric of choice.  Garcia has 88th percentile sprint speed and is very strong in most Statcast batting metrics.  He’s a player who seems like he could have another level, but that was also true when he signed his two-year deal with the Brewers.  Garcia could be a fit for the Marlins, Royals, Rangers, Mets, Cubs, Reds, and Rockies if the Brewers don’t bring him back.

Signed with Marlins for four years, $53MM.

25.  Jorge Soler.  Three years, $36MM.

TD: Brewers / SA: Rockies / AF: Marlins

Soler defected from Cuba in 2011 and signed a nine-year, $30MM deal with the Cubs.  He was a part of the Cubs’ 2016 championship team, but was traded to the Royals for Wade Davis after that season.  In 2019, Soler shook off a long injury history to set the Royals’ franchise record with 48 home runs – perhaps aided by playing 107 games at DH and only 56 in the field.  Soler played 752 innings in right field this year, his most in the field since 2015 – in part because the Royals traded him to the Braves at the deadline.  He’s never been a good fielder, and rated as one of the game’s worst defensive right fielders this year.

Soler struggled mightily in the first half of the season, but from July 20th forward, he posted a 144 wRC+ that ranked 21st in all of baseball.  Soler capped his season by winning the World Series MVP, crushing three big home runs against the Astros.  30 in February, Soler lights up Statcast and demonstrated his ceiling back in 2019, even if he played at replacement level overall this year.  If the NL gets the DH, Soler could snag a three-year deal.

Signed with Marlins for three years, $36MM with opt-outs after ’22 and ’23.

26.  Alex Wood.  Three years, $30MM.

TD: Mariners / SA: Nationals / AF: Twins

Wood, 31 in January, was a second round pick by the Braves out of the University of Georgia back in 2012.  He was sent to the Dodgers in a three-team, 13-player swap at the 2015 trade deadline, and then moved to the Reds in another complicated trade in December 2018.  However, Wood tallied only 48 1/3 frames from 2019-20, resulting in a pair of cheap one-year free agent deals with the Dodgers and Giants.

When healthy, Wood has always been effective.  He made only seven starts for the 2019 Reds due to a back injury.  He cracked the Dodgers’ rotation in the shortened 2020 season, but quickly went down for shoulder inflammation and pitched mostly in relief upon his return.  For the Giants, though, Wood was healthy for the first time since 2018, making 27 starts despite starting on the IL due to a March back procedure and later missing time due to COVID-19.  Wood’s 26 K% ranks sixth among free agent starters, and he’ll cost a lot less than those ranked ahead of him.  He’s also free of a qualifying offer, but that’s true of the other mid-range starters as well.

Signed with Giants for two years, $25MM.

27.  Steven Matz.  Three years, $27MM.

TD: Red Sox / SA: Angels / AF: Nationals

Matz, a 30-year-old lefty, was drafted out of high school by the Mets in the second round in 2009.  He underwent Tommy John surgery in May 2010.  Matz finally debuted for the Mets in 2015, pitching well enough to get the ball in Game 4 of the World Series.  He became a rotation mainstay in the four years that followed, pitching fairly well aside from a 2017 season mostly lost to elbow woes.  Matz made 60 starts with a 4.09 ERA from 2018-19, but was yanked from the rotation in 2020 after five rough starts.  Considered a possible non-tender candidate after that season, Matz was instead signed and shipped to the Blue Jays in a trade.

Matz pitched well for the Jays, with a 3.82 ERA in 29 starts.  His strikeout and walk rates were roughly league average.  Only six left-handed starters threw harder than Matz’s 94.5 miles per hour average this year, so it’s possible suitors will aim to unlock another level of strikeout ability in him.  Matz declined a reported multiyear proposal from the Blue Jays, who declined to make him a qualifying offer.  Other clubs seeking an middle of the rotation arm like Matz might include the Tigers, Royals, Twins, Angels, Mariners, Rangers, Nationals, Cubs, Cardinals, and Giants.

Signed with Cardinals for four years, $44MM.

28.  Kendall Graveman.  Three years, $27MM.

TD: Astros / SA: Royals / AF: Dodgers

Graveman, 31 in December, was drafted in the eighth round by the Blue Jays out of Mississippi State back in 2013.  He joined the A’s in the Josh Donaldson trade the following year.  Graveman served as a groundball-heavy, pitch-to-contact starter for the A’s from 2015-17, putting up a 4.11 ERA in 71 starts.  Graveman lost his rotation job early in the 2018 season, and then went down for Tommy John surgery in July of that year.  The A’s cut him loose, and the Cubs signed him with an eye on the 2020 season.

The Cubs chose to decline the option, leading to a $1.5MM deal with the Mariners for ’20.  Graveman’s 11 appearances that year didn’t impress, but his fastball ticked up close to 95 out of the bullpen and he figured out a four-seam fastball during quarantine.  A benign bone tumor was discovered in Graveman’s spine, but he was able to pitch with it.  Graveman’s club option was declined again after the season, but this time he re-upped with the Mariners for $1.25MM for ’21.

Graveman put it all together for the Mariners this year, posting a 0.82 ERA and 28.1 K% before the club surprisingly traded him to the division-rival Astros for Abraham Toro and Joe Smith.  Though Graveman’s control slipped with the Astros, he still performed capably and assumed a key role in their bullpen through the postseason.  Graveman’s skills form a rare combination, as only three relievers this year can boast of a 96 mile per hour fastball, 27 K%, and 54% groundball rate.  He may be the best setup option on the market, and should draw interest from just about every contender.

Signed with White Sox for three years, $24MM.

29.  Kenley Jansen.  Two years, $26MM.

TD: Blue Jays / SA: Blue Jays / AF: Royals

Barely a year after spending most of his season catching for the High-A Inland Empire 66ers, Kenley Jansen made his MLB debut as a hard-throwing reliever at Dodger Stadium against the Mets in 2010.  Armed with little more than a devastating cutter, Jansen began a run of domination out of the Dodgers’ bullpen that resulted in a 2.08 ERA over his first eight seasons.  In January 2017, after fielding even larger offers from other teams, Jansen-re-signed with the Dodgers on a five-year, $80MM deal that still stands as the second-largest ever given to a reliever.

Though still very good, Jansen started to waver a bit in 2018, posting career-worsts in ERA, strikeout rate, and home run rate.  He blew saves in Games 3 and 4 of the 2018 World Series, undergoing heart surgery in the offseason.  Jansen battled through eight blown saves in 2019, posting a career-worst 3.71 ERA.  After Jansen blew the save in Game 4 of the 2020 Series, manager Dave Roberts called on Blake Treinen and Julio Urias to close out Games 5 and 6.

Jansen began reducing his cutter usage in 2019 after typically throwing the pitch 85-90% of the time.  He was down to 58% in ’21, to solid results.  While Jansen’s ERA fell back down to 2.22 and was unscored upon in seven postseason innings, Jansen’s 12.9 BB% was the worst he’s had in a full season.  Now 34 years old, the second act of Jansen’s career figures to be respectable, if not dominant.  Jansen is ineligible for a qualifying offer, having received one previously.  If the Dodgers decide to finally move on, the Red Sox, Blue Jays, Astros, Angels, Braves, Marlins, Phillies, and Padres could be potential suitors.

Signed with Braves for one year, $16MM.

30.  Mark Canha.  Two years, $24MM.

TD: Guardians / SA: Guardians / AF: Guardians

Canha, 33 in February, was drafted in the seventh round out of UC Berkeley in 2010 by the Marlins.  The Rockies took him in the 2014 Rule 5 draft, immediately trading him to the A’s.  He was able to hit well enough as a rookie  in 2015 to stick on the roster, but required season-ending hip surgery in May of the following season.  Canha was up and down in the Majors in 2017 and underwent wrist surgery after the season.

In 2018, Canha was finally able to stick in the bigs for good, posting a 115 wRC+.  His best season was 2019, when he hit 26 home runs for a 146 wRC+ and four wins above replacement in 126 games.  Canha has a strong .366 on-base percentage since 2020, but has slugged only .393 – perhaps the result of playing his home games at RingCentral Coliseum.  The lack of power and hard hits does show up in Canha’s Statcast metrics.  Defensively, Canha is able to play all three outfield positions capably.

For a team seeking to bolster its OBP, Canha is a strong addition who may be limited to a two-year term given his age.  The Guardians, Marlins, Mets, Phillies, Rockies, and Giants could be fits.

Signed with Mets for two years, $26.5MM.

31.  Kyle Seager.  Two years, $24MM.

TD: Blue Jays / SA: Blue Jays / AF: Mets

Among free agents, only Marcus Semien hit more home runs than Seager’s 35 this year.  Seager may have sold out for power, however, as he posted a career-worst strikeout rate and batting average.  Seager still probably profiles as a 110 wRC+ type bat, and the 34-year-old plays above-average defense.  Drafted by the Mariners in the third round in 2009 out of UNC, Seager has played 11 seasons with the club due to a seven-year extension signed in December 2014.  The free agent market is short on regular third basemen this year, and the Blue Jays, Phillies, and Mets could make sense.

Retired.

32.  Michael Conforto.  One year, $20MM.

TD: Braves / SA: White Sox / AF: Brewers

Conforto, 29 in March, seemed primed for a large contract heading into the 2021 season.  Instead, he tumbled to a 106 wRC+, his worst mark since 2016.  In the four years prior, Conforto stood at 133, 18th in baseball among those with at least 1,500 plate appearances during that time.  The longtime Met can play either outfield corner, and can be used in center in a pinch.  In general, his right field defense has been average.

There will be teams that happily make Conforto a multiyear offer, crediting his long track record as one of the game’s better left-handed hitters over his mediocre 2021.  The guess here is that Conforto will turn down the qualifying offer, find the multiyear offers insufficient, and sign a comparable one-year deal with a new team to rebuild value and shake off the QO.  Yasmani Grandal and Marcell Ozuna followed this model successfully.  If the Mets don’t hammer something out with Conforto, he could fit with the Rangers, Braves, Phillies, Cubs, Brewers, Rockies, Padres, Guardians, and Royals.

Remains unsigned.

33.  Clayton Kershaw.  One year, $20MM.

TD: Rangers / SA: Rangers / AF: Phillies

Kershaw, 34 in March, will eventually enter the Hall of Fame as a Dodger.  His resume includes three Cy Young awards and votes in six other seasons.  The legendary lefty saw his average fastball velocity drop to 90.7 miles per hour this year, down from the prior shortened campaign but within range of his 2018-19 work.  He was a big contributor to the Dodgers’ 2020 championship, with a 2.93 ERA over five starts.  Though a bit homer-prone over the past five seasons, Kershaw 25.2 K-BB% in 2021 remains elite.

Kershaw made 22 starts this year.  He returned to pitch in September after a two-month absence due to a forearm injury, but after four starts his season ended due to a recurrence.  Kershaw received a platelet-rich plasma injection in October for what he termed a “flexor issue,” with no current plans for surgery.  The options for Kershaw appear to be a return to the Dodgers, a move to his hometown Rangers, or retirement.  The Dodgers surprisingly elected not to issue a qualifying offer to Kershaw, which could be perceived as a red flag on his health or just a friendly gesture meant to allow him to explore free agency uninhibited.  A multiyear contract is still possible, but we decided to predict one year given the uncertainty of Kershaw’s injury.

Signed with Dodgers for one year, $17MM.

34.  Yusei Kikuchi.  Two years, $20MM.

TD: Cubs / SA: Cubs / AF: Cubs

Kikuchi, a 30-year-old southpaw, averaged 95.2 miles per hour on his fastball this year – second only to Carlos Rodon among free agents.  After an excellent July 1st start at Toronto, things were looking up.  Kikuchi owned a 3.18 ERA, 25.4 K%, and and 8.5 BB% in 15 starts, and he had been selected to his first All-Star Game.

Though it didn’t immediately manifest in his results, Kikuchi lost 197 RPM on his four-seam fastball after June 12th.  He also lost about one mile per hour on his fastball after July 1st, possibly the result of wearing down.  From July 7th forward, Kikuchi posted a 6.22 ERA, 23.3 K%, and 10.3 BB%, with 1.7 home runs allowed per nine innings.  By the end of the season, he’d been booted from the Mariners’ rotation.  The Mariners made the easy choice to decline his four-year, $66MM option, but Kikuchi surprised some by declining his one-year, $13MM option.  But not guaranteed a rotation spot in Seattle and with at least some prospect of a multiyear deal, Kikuchi’s decision makes sense.

Despite his solid start to the season and top-notch velocity from the left side, Kikuchi isn’t quite the appealing upside play you might imagine.  His Statcast numbers show that when batters hit the ball against Kikuchi this year, they absolutely hammered it.  The 91.9 mile per hour average exit velocity against him was the worst in baseball, and 47% of the balls hit against him were 95 and up (second worst in the game).  As such, the fact that Kikuchi allowed more than a fifth of his flyballs to leave the yard can’t be waved away as a fluke.  Some starting pitchers, such as Robbie Ray this year, are able to succeed despite allowing hard contact.  But it’s hardly a positive, and Kikuchi does allow his share of walks as well.  He’s still an interesting project, but a total reboot will be required.  The Blue Jays, Tigers, Twins, Angels, Rangers, Mets, Nationals, Cubs, and Giants could be candidates.

Signed with Blue Jays for three years, $36MM.

35.  Eduardo Escobar.  Two years, $20MM.

TD: Nationals / SA: White Sox / AF: Blue Jays

Escobar, 33 in January, joined the Twins in the July 2012 Francisco Liriano trade with the White Sox.  He received his first taste of semi-regular duty in his years with the Twins before being traded to the Diamondbacks at the 2018 deadline.  A solid ’18 campaign earned Escobar a three-year extension with Arizona, and he rewarded the club with a 35 home run, 3.6 WAR season in ’19.  Escobar struggled mightily in the shortened ’20 campaign.  He bounced back in ’21 and was involved in the third trade deadline deal of his career, heading to the Brewers.

Escobar is an above-average hitter who can handle third base, second base, and first base.  The Blue Jays, Mariners, and Phillies could be among those looking to plug him in at the hot corner on a short-term deal.

Signed with Mets for two years, $20MM.

36.  Brandon Belt.  One year, $18.4MM (accepts qualifying offer).

TD: Giants / SA: Giants / AF: Giants

Since 2020, Belt’s 163 wRC+ ranks behind only Juan Soto and Bryce Harper among those with at least 500 plate appearances.  The flip side is that Belt played in only 97 games this year due to a left oblique strain, a right knee injury, and a fractured left thumb.  The first baseman, 34 in April, did manage to play in more than 93% of the Giants’ possible games from 2019-20.

It’s also worth noting that Belt faced left-handed pitching about a third of the time from 2016-18, but only about 19% of the time from 2020-21.  That’s likely because the Giants found quality right-handed complements in Darin Ruf and Wilmer Flores.  That said, Belt hasn’t always struggled against lefties.  He posted a 127 wRC+ against them over the first six years of his career, and a 129 mark this year.  But from 2018-20, Belt hit just .207/.319/.319 against southpaws over 348 plate appearances, and it’s difficult to say if this year’s 75 PA erases that.

Having signed a five-year extension in April of 2016, Belt has spent his entire 11-year career with the Giants.  The Giants issued him a qualifying offer, and it may make sense for Belt to accept and aim for a healthy 2022 with the only team he’s ever known, especially with the expected addition of the NL DH.  We do believe offers larger than $18.4MM would eventually surface for Belt, but we don’t know his willingness to wait out a potential lockout and/or leave the Giants.

Accepted one-year, $18.4MM qualifying offer from Giants.

37.  Noah Syndergaard.  One year, $18.4MM (accepts qualifying offer).

TD: Mets / SA: Mets / AF: Mets

Syndergaard, 29, burst on the scene with a fourth place Rookie of the Year finish in 2015 and Cy Young votes the following season.  However, the hard-throwing Mets righty made only seven starts in 2017 due to a lat injury.  He bounced back to make 57 starts from 2018-19, but went down for Tommy John surgery in March 2020.  It took Syndergaard 18 months to return to an MLB mound, as he made two appearances as an opener as the Mets closed out their season.  Syndergaard wasn’t at his pre-surgery 97-98, but 95 miles per hour isn’t a bad starting point.

Syndergaard seems to be in favor of the Mets’ issuing a qualifying offer.  A simple path forward would be for him to accept the $18.4MM offer and re-establish his health in 2022 before hitting the free agent jackpot.

Signed with Angels for one year, $21MM.

38.  Corey Knebel.  Two years, $18MM.

TD: Red Sox / SA: Phillies / AF: Twins

Knebel, 30 this month, was drafted 39th overall by the Tigers in 2013 out of the University of Texas.  He was traded to the Rangers in the July 2014 Joakim Soria trade, and then to the Brewers in the January 2015 Yovani Gallardo deal.  Throwing 95-97 miles per hour, he peaked in 2017 with a 40.8 K%, 39 saves, and an All-Star nod.  Knebel was briefly demoted to Triple-A late in a rocky 2018 season, and then went down for Tommy John surgery in March 2019.

Knebel returned from surgery for 15 shaky appearances in 2020, and the Brewers traded him to the Dodgers in lieu of a non-tender.  He missed more than three and a half months this season due to a lat strain, returning in August.  After his return, Knebel was excellent in 19 appearances, including four as an opener.  He opened twice more for the Dodgers in the playoffs among seven appearances, adding another dominant 5 2/3 innings to his ledger.

It’s fair to wonder how many innings Knebel can provide next season, but his last impression was a strong one and he should be a popular late-inning relief target.

Signed with Phillies for one year, $10MM.

39.  Alex Cobb.  Two years, $16MM.

TD: Royals / SA: Red Sox / AF: Athletics

Cobb, 34, joined the Angels in a February trade and pitched better than he ever did in Baltimore.  Cobb’s 24.9 K% marked a career-best, though his walk rate was his worst since his brief rookie season.  In his time with the Rays and Orioles, Cobb hasn’t primarily been a strikeout pitcher, instead relying on strong groundball rates.

Cobb hit the IL in late July with wrist inflammation this year, knocking him out for more than two months.  Cobb hasn’t made 20 starts in a season since 2018.  Still, he shouldn’t require a long-term deal and can supplement just about any rotation.

Signed with Giants for two years, $20MM.

40.  Zack Greinke.  One year, $15MM.

TD: Nationals / SA: Cardinals / AF: Red Sox

Still putting the finishing touches on a Hall of Fame resume, Greinke’s season ERA stood at 3.41 as late as August 23rd.  He’d make only four more regular season appearances for the Astros, allowing 20 earned runs in 15 1/3 innings.  Greinke’s season and perhaps Astros career ended on a high note, with four scoreless innings to start off Game 4 of the World Series.

In his 18-year career with the Royals, Brewers, Angels, Dodgers, Diamondbacks, and Astros, Greinke has one Cy Young award and votes in four other seasons.  He’s always had impeccable control, though his strikeout rate tumbled down to 17.2% this year.  The 38-year-old righty is enigmatic, thoughtful, and hilarious, and would likely be signed for his clubhouse presence as much as for his work on the mound.  First, we have to see whether Greinke even wants to continue pitching.

Signed with Royals for one year, $13MM.

41.  Eddie Rosario.  Two years, $15MM.

TD: Nationals / SA: Braves / AF: Braves

Rosario, 30, was an above average hitter for the Twins each year from 2017-20, with a 112 wRC+ overall.  He’s not much of an asset on defense, with a 2018 season that was particularly rough.  Facing an arbitration salary beyond what the free agent market would pay a player of this skill set, the Twins chose not to tender Rosario a contract after the 2020 season.

The Indians gave Rosario a one-year, $8MM free agent contract, and by the trade deadline they were simply hoping to unload some of the financial commitment.  Rosario became one of the Braves’ four outfield acquisitions, shipped to Atlanta while on the IL for an abdominal strain.  Once he returned Rosario hit well in 106 regular season plate appearances for the Braves, posting a 133 wRC+.  He added the NLCS MVP award on top, smacking three home runs in six games against the Dodgers.  His power and solid finish to the season on the big stage should help him land a starting outfield job.

Signed with Braves for two years, $18MM.

42.  Hector Neris.  Two years, $15MM.

TD: Phillies / SA: Angels / AF: Rays

Neris, 32, has pitched in parts of eight seasons for the Phillies.  While he’s been prone to the longball throughout his career, Neris also has a long history of missing bats.  He’s got a 31.1 K% since 2019, 11th in baseball among relievers with at least 140 innings during that time.  His swinging strike rate during that period ranks fifth, and Statcast also paints a positive picture.  Neris hasn’t always been able to hold onto the Phillies’ closer job, and he had seven blown saves this year, but he remains a capable late-inning reliever.

Signed with Astros for two years, $17MM.

43.  Jonathan Villar.  Two years, $14MM.

TD: Mets / SA: Rockies / AF: White Sox

Villar, 30, is a solid utility infielder capable of playing second base, third base, and shortstop.  Though he struggled to hit in the shortened 2020 season, he posted a 105 wRC+ this year for the Mets and a 107 mark in 2019.  He also adds positive value on the basepaths, with 2021’s low two-thirds success rate likely an aberration.  Villar is not generally known for his defense; his versatility is his calling card.  After this year’s one-year, $3.55MM deal with the Mets, Villar should do better this time around through free agency.

Signed with Cubs for one year, $6MM.

44.  Mark Melancon.  Two years, $14MM.

TD: Phillies / SA: Cardinals / AF: Cardinals

Melancon, 37 in March, led all of MLB with 39 saves for the Padres this year.  And among relievers with at least 50 innings, his 2.23 ERA ranked 18th.  Melancon deploys a groundball-heavy approach, helping compensate for a strikeout rate below 22% over the last three years.  The veteran righty is pretty good at generating weak contact, with a barrel rate and average exit velocity both in the 76th percentile or better.  While Melancon’s skillset isn’t the one modern GMs crave, he keeps getting results and should surpass last winter’s one-year, $3MM deal.

Signed with Diamondbacks for two years, $14MM.

45.  Ryan Tepera.  Two years, $12MM.

TD: Angels / SA: Royals / AF: Phillies

After a 2019 season abbreviated due to elbow surgery, Tepera’s Blue Jays career came to an end when he was designated for assignment.  The Cubs picked him up as a free agent for just $900K.  Despite a less-than-ideal 13.5 BB% in 2020, Tepera was a key part of the Cubs’ bullpen and had a decent year.   The 2020 campaign earned Tepera an accidental MVP vote, but the Cubs still weren’t impressed enough to tender him a contract.  After a few months on the market, Tepera landed back with the Cubs, this time with an $800K guarantee.

This year, Tepera got a handle on the free passes, but still punched out more than 30% of batters faced.  That earned him a ticket across town in a midseason trade with the White Sox.  Though Tepera pitched better than most of the relievers ahead of him in the bullpen pecking order, including fellow ex-Cub Craig Kimbrel, he wasn’t thrust into a high-leverage role.  Still, it seems like Tepera will finally earn some respect this winter with a multiyear deal.

Signed with Angels for two years, $14MM.

46.  Corey Kluber.  One year, $12MM.

TD: Braves / SA: Twins / AF: Giants

Kluber blossomed into a late-career ace with the Indians, winning Cy Young awards in 2014 and ’17 and receiving votes in three other seasons.  However, he missed almost the entire 2019 and ’20 seasons due to a forearm fracture followed by a Grade 2 tear of the teres major muscle in his right shoulder.  After showcasing for teams in January this year, Kluber signed a one-year, $11MM deal with the Yankees.

Kluber’s 16-start season with the Yankees was a mixed bag.  He peaked with a May 19th no-hitter at Texas, but then missed more than two months with a subscapularis strain in his shoulder.  The righty was much better before the injury than after it, and his 14.4 K-BB% on the season was far from vintage Kluber.  36 in April, Kluber’s past glory plus a healthy, normal offseason should still make him an interesting one-year deal candidate.

Signed with Rays for one year, $8MM.

47.  Nelson Cruz.  One year, $12MM.

TD: Padres / SA: Padres / AF: Brewers

Cruz, 41, posted a 122 wRC+ with 32 home runs in 584 plate appearances for the Twins and Rays this year, almost entirely as a designated hitter.  While Cruz was a solid producer, 2021 was still his worst season since 2013.  He’d been at a 150 wRC+ in the three seasons prior.  Cruz’s drop in offense coincided with his trade to the Rays, as his walks and power took a tumble and he managed league average production.  Cruz’s Statcast metrics remain near the top of the chart, and the ageless slugger will only be helped if the National League adds the designated hitter.

Signed with Nationals for one year, $15MM.

48.  Danny Duffy.  One year, $10MM.

TD: Angels / SA: Dodgers / AF: Royals

Duffy, 33 in December, got off to a fine start this year with a 1.94 ERA through his first seven outings.  At that point, he hit the IL for a flexor strain and missed more than a month.  He was reinstated for a brief 42-pitch start on June 23rd, and then was oddly brought out in relief two days later.  After that he made four additional starts, topping out at 77 pitches, before the flexor strain recurred and ultimately ended his season.  That wasn’t known at the time, and while on the IL Duffy attracted interest from the Giants and Dodgers, landing with the latter via trade.  Duffy suffered a setback in September and never pitched for the Dodgers.

Having signed a five-year extension in 2017, Duffy pitched with the Royals for 11 years.  In his 61 innings this year, he posted a career-best 25.8 K%.  He’s generally been good for about 150 innings of 4.00 ball, and could become an attractive target once teams gain clarity on his health situation.

Signed with Dodgers for one year, $3MM.

49.  Yan Gomes.  Two years, $10MM.

TD: Yankees / SA: Yankees / AF: Rockies

In an extremely thin market for catchers, the 34-year-old Gomes stands out as the lone starting-caliber option in free agency.  Gomes admittedly hasn’t been a particularly consistent hitter on a year-to-year basis, but over the past four seasons he’s turned in a combined .252/.311/.426 slash — about seven percent worse than the league-average hitter (regardless of position) but about five percent better than the average catcher.

A solid hitter relative to his positional peers, Gomes also possesses quality defensive ratings.  He’s roughly average in terms of pitch framing, but Baseball Prospectus rates his ability to block pitches in the dirt quite well.  Gomes also boasts a 29% caught-stealing rate across the past four seasons and notched a 31% mark in that regard in 2021 — well above the league-average of 25%. Gomes will turn 35 next  July, so his days as a clear-cut starting option behind the plate could potentially be dwindling, but the Rangers, Yankees, Marlins, Angels and Cubs (depending on a trade of Willson Contreras) could all potentially use a solid veteran of this style.

Signed with Cubs for two years, $13MM.

50.  Andrew Heaney.  One year, $6MM.

TD: Cardinals / SA: Nationals / AF: Pirates

Heaney, a 30-year-old southpaw, had a disastrous year with a 5.83 ERA in 129 2/3 innings.  Things only got worse after the Angels sent him to the Yankees at the trade deadline.  But look below the surface, and you’ll see an interesting reclamation project.  Among those with at least 250 innings over the last three seasons, Heaney’s 27.1 K% ranks 24th in the Majors.  His K-BB% ranks 21st.  The skills are there for a 4.00 ERA starter.  Always a flyball pitcher, Heaney was undone in 2021 by allowing 18% of his flyballs to leave the yard.  A team with a big ballpark might wind up with a bargain.

Signed with Dodgers for one year, $8.5MM.

Honorable mentions:

Notable deals for unlisted/non-tendered players:

We realize that a Top 50 Free Agents list with team predictions will leave some fanbases dissatisfied. A few notes to keep in mind:

  • With our team predictions, each of us tried to present one possible puzzle where everything could happen. Once we start to get picks wrong, it has a ripple effect.
  • While some teams’ key needs have gone unaddressed, we wouldn’t recommend reading into it. There are plenty of potential big names on the trade market, as well as good free agents who didn’t make our top 50.
  • This list was originally published on November 8th, 2021.  The 2021-22 offseason included a 99-day lockout from December 2, 2021 until March 10, 2022, during which all transactions were frozen.

Offseason Outlook: Atlanta Braves

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In their fourth consecutive season at the top of the National League East, the Braves finally put away their postseason demons to win the World Series. If it weren’t for the ring, however, this would be the most uncertain offseason the Braves have faced in some time. This year’s team had the lowest winning percentage of any of their four East title squads, and it’s hard not to suggest that these Braves benefited from a weak division in 2021. They capitalized, they partied, and they paraded, but now it’s time to pack up the balloons and streamers and look ahead to some difficult offseason decisions.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Charlie Morton, SP: $20MM in 2022 (includes $20MM club option for 2023 with no buyout)
  • Marcell Ozuna OF: $53MM through 2024 (includes $1MM buyout on $16MM club option for 2025)
  • Will Smith, RP: $14MM in 2022 (includes $1MM buyout on $13MM club option for 2023)
  • Ronald Acuna Jr., OF: $93MM through 2026 (includes $10MM buyout on $17MM club option for 2027, team also holds a $17MM option for 2028)
  • Travis d’Arnaud, C: $16MM through 2023 (includes $8MM club option for 2024 with no buyout)
  • Ozzie Albies, 2B: $26MM through 2025 (includes $4MM buyout on $7MM club option in 2026, team also holds $7MM club option for 2027)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

  • Joc Pederson, OF: $10MM mutual option for 2022 (player declined in favor of a $2.5MM buyout)
  • Adam Duvall, OF: $7MM mutual option for 2022 (player declined in favor of a $3MM buyout, remains arbitration-eligible)
  • Josh Tomlin, RP: $1.25MM team option for 2022 (declined for a $250K buyout)

Free Agents

The Braves are the champions of the 2021 Major League Baseball season. Bully for you, Atlanta.  Given that fact, their offseason outlook is pretty good. Frankly, whatever happens over the next six months won’t really matter to the Braves. They’re the champs, and that’s the ultimate winter gavel drop.

The one thing that could slow the effervescent feel-goodery of their championship run is the pending contract negotiation with longtime face-of-the-franchise Freddie Freeman. If by some odd twist of fate Freeman does not sign a long-term deal to stay with the Braves, that’s when the lights turn on, the music stops, and everyone goes home.

The 2022 season is already shaping up to be a weird one: the Giants will be without Buster Posey, the Nationals will probably be without Ryan Zimmerman, Bryzzo no longer exists except in the memory of Cubs’ fans, a fanbase other than Houston is likely going to embrace Carlos Correa, and the agreement between the owners and Players’ Union that defines the conditions of the 2022 season…well…there is no agreement. Point being, there’s only so much change a sport can take in a single winter, so let’s assume for the sake of sanity that Freeman will remain with the only organization he has ever known. If north ends up being south and pigs fly, we can cross that bridge then.

After all, from a baseball perspective, there’s little reason not to bring back Freeman. He’s one year removed from an MVP season and coming off a .300/.393/.503 campaign, in which he led the NL with 120 runs. He’s been one of the most consistent players in baseball, both from a character and production standpoint. He’s posted 4.0 rWAR or better in each of the last six seasons (except for 2020, when he put up 3.2 rWAR in 60 games). He’s been the heartbeat of the club for years, and he shows no signs of slowing down.

Yes, he plays first base, and that means he’s not a particularly versatile asset. His next contract will take him into his late thirties, and it’s going to be costly. But so long as they have Acuna and Albies locked into ridiculously team-friendly deals, and so long as their largest contract belongs to Charlie Morton on a minimal-risk, short-term contract, these Braves should have the money to overpay a little to keep “new Chipper” in his locker spot.

From a narrative perspective, the engines stalled during the postseason while Joe Buck and John Smoltz repeatedly tried to breathe life into the story of Soler, Rosario, Duvall, and Pederson being brought to Atlanta at the deadline. For sure, give President of Baseball Operations Alex Anthopoulos all the credit he deserves. He absolutely raised the floor for what had been an under-performing Atlanta team, and he hit pay dirt when each of the four showed up huge in the postseason. It’s pretty remarkable, in fact, that each of those four guys was able to make a distinct imprint on this postseason.

And yet, there’s a world in which none of them return to Atlanta for 2022. Soler and Rosario were the NLCS and World Series MVPs, respectively, but they are both straight-up free agents – free to sign wherever they please. For both of those guys, they could be in for an extended stay at reception unless the Braves want to honor their contribution with a hero’s offer.

On the other hand, it’s easy to see either one of these guys returning to Atlanta. When guys become postseason starts like Rosario and Soler, they instantly become more valuable to their incumbent franchise than they are anywhere else. For the players, they certainly should have positive associations from their time in Atlanta, and their popularity meters will be less sensitive in Atlanta than with a fresh fanbase. And yet, Soler and Rosario are corner outfielders at best, and most teams may want to see what happens with the CBA before signing a potential designated hitter.

While Soler and Rosario are the decorated heroes of this outfield foursome, Pederson and Duvall have been the active pair thus far. Pederson declined his $10MM mutual option, choosing instead to take a $2.5MM buyout and head to free agency. The move makes sense for both sides, as Pederson will want to find a situation with more guaranteed playing time. Coming off a 94 wRC+ season that saw him post just 0.6 fWAR between the Cubs and Braves, the Braves weren’t likely to exercise their half of the option if the decision had made it that far.

The Duvall decision is a touch more complex. Their postseason centerfielder declined his half of a $7MM mutual option, pocketing the $3MM buyout. But he remains under team control through arbitration. Duvall has been a 109 wRC+ hitter over the past three seasons, mostly with Atlanta, and he’s coming off probably his best year, posting 2.4 fWAR between the Marlins and Braves. Besides, unlocking at least a passing ability to play centerfield makes Duvall all the more valuable. He’s a flawed player because of subpar on-base skills, but he can also carry a team when he’s hot. Still, the Braves have designated him for assignment in the past when the financials were similar, and if they learned anything this past season, it’s that outfielders can be had at the deadline for cheap. If they keep him, MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projects a salary in the $9.1MM range.

Not to mention, the Braves outfield quandary goes deeper than those four. With Acuna coming back, they’re already overcrowded (even if Acuna isn’t ready by opening day). Plus, with Marcell Ozuna’s contract hanging over this team, there’s a lot more uncertainty heading into next season. As of now, there’s no telling if Ozuna will play again or if the Braves would have any recourse to getting out of his contract, should they want to.

They also have heralded prospects Cristian Pache and Drew Waters to work into the equation. Pache already has a Major League glove, and he should have a roster spot on the 2022 Braves. Even if he’s not strictly an everyday regular, if he’s on the roster, he’s likely to get a lot of the playing time.

The shape and depth of the Braves ’22 outfield is unclear, but the truth is, it’s a largely cosmetic problem. There are plenty of options available to Anthopoulos, and it’s more a question of sentimentality and narrative than it is efficacy. The bones of a solid outfield are already there, especially if they choose to bring back Duvall, and even if none of Soler, Duvall, Rosario and Pederson return, there ought to be plenty of low-cost alternatives available to bring aboard.

The rest of the offense is fairly well set. Swanson has one more year of arbitration at short, Albies is locked in long-term at second, Riley established himself at the hot corner, and d’Arnaud signed a two-year extension to return as the starting backstop. One wayward thought: given the shortstops that are available this winter, the Braves could be bold and look now for a long-term replacement for Swanson at short, but that’s probably a little too cute for Anthopoulos. Swanson is Georgia born, he has great hair, solid memes, and the former number one overall pick has been a steady if unspectacular presence on both sides of the ball. Entering his age-28 season, there may yet be a career year lurking as well.

Behind those starters, William Contreras shows promise and can serve as the backup behind the plate. If they want to give him more regular playing time in Triple-A, Chadwick Tromp was picked up from the Giants and 24-year-old Shea Langeliers isn’t far from elbowing his way into the room. If retained, Johan Camargo and Orlando Arcia can backup most spots around the diamond, though either one could be a non-tender candidate given their light outputs at the dish. Travis Demeritte was added to the 40-man roster to compete for a backup role as well. There’s a spot to fill on the bench, but it largely depends on whether or not they retain any of the “trade deadline four.”

For the rest of the roster, they’re actually in a much better place than you might assume for a team coming off its fourth consecutive division title. Because despite their longstanding success, there’s definitely an up-and-coming quality to this roster, especially on the pitching side. Morton, Ian Anderson, and Max Fried make for a stellar top of the rotation, and there’s some serious upside to untap if Mike Soroka can return healthy and either Huascar Ynoa, Kyle Wright, Kyle Muller, or Touki Toussaint can establish themselves in the bigs. Of course, we’ve been saying this of Atlanta’s rotation for years. They’ve also managed to keep it together for years.

They may look to add another Drew Smyly type, a back-end rotation piece who gave them 126 2/3 innings of 4.48 ERA/5.11 FIP baseball during the regular season. Those innings are no joke, and Atlanta will have to fill them again next year. Smyly was little better than replacement level, so they should have no trouble replacing him.

The bullpen remains mostly intact as well, with the southpaw triumvirate of Will Smith, Tyler Matzek, and A.J. Minter returning. Richard Rodriguez, Luke Jackson, and Jacob Webb make up a solid trio of righties as well. There’s certainly room for an addition here or there, but it’s more likely the Braves will tinker around the edges of the roster

All in all, it’s likely to be a relatively quiet winter for the champs outside of a potential Freeman extension. With arbitration projections, their projected payroll is right around the $140MM mark they carried in 2021. Of course, that’s without a new contract for Freeman, but winning the World Series ought to help make the extra room in the payroll to keep the player who waited the longest in Atlanta to win.

Offseason Outlook: San Francisco Giants

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The retirement of franchise legend Buster Posey underscores what a transformative offseason this could be for the Giants, who have lots of available payroll, several roster needs, and an infrastructure that has already produced a 107-win season.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

Free Agents

The 2021-22 offseason has long been earmarked as the turning point of the Giants’ rebuilding phase.  When Farhan Zaidi was hired as the team’s president of baseball operations in November 2018, the consensus was that Zaidi would spend three years adding younger talent and trying to unload as many unwieldy veteran contracts as possible, but since so many of those veteran contracts were up this winter, the decks would be cleared for the team to clearly focus on fielding a contender.

As it happened, the rebuild ended a year early.  San Francisco didn’t even entirely bottom out in 2019 (77-85 record) or 2020 (29-31), and then shocked the baseball world by winning 107 games this past year.  Of all the great teams in the Giants’ history, the 2021 edition was the first to 107 victories, breaking the old franchise mark of 106 set way back in 1904.  After such a season, a first-round playoff exit has to count as a disappointment, especially since the Giants lost to the arch-rival Dodgers in a nail-biter of a five-game NLDS.

However, even though many members of that 2021 roster might not be returning next year, there is already a sense that San Francisco has turned the corner.  Zaidi’s front office and the Giants’ coaching staff have done an outstanding job of acquiring lower-cost talent and working with those players to either rediscover past potential or reach new heights on the field, so the potential roster departures may not loom at large for the Giants as they would for most clubs.  Now, with loads of extra payroll space to now spend on established star names or even more hidden-gem types, pretty much anything seems to be on the table for the Giants this winter.

Looking at San Francisco’s payroll picture, Roster Resource estimates the team has roughly $74.3MM on the books for 2022 and only $33MM committed beyond this season.  Considering how the Giants regularly spent well over the $180MM mark and even paid the luxury tax in each of the 2015-17 seasons, it isn’t a reach to suggest that Zaidi could add around $100MM to next year’s ledger, even if some of that money isn’t spent in the winter and instead saved for another Kris Bryant-esque trade deadline addition.

Zaidi has already stated that the pitching staff if the team’s chief focus, since Kevin Gausman, Anthony DeSclafani, Alex Wood, and Johnny Cueto are all free agents.  “I would be surprised if we didn’t wind up doing at least one multi-year deal for a starting pitcher,” Zaidi said, while also noting that the Giants would again be looking at less expensive one-year options to help fill these many rotation spots.

The good news is that San Francisco’s one remaining surefire starter is Logan Webb, who broke out with a tremendous 2021 season.  Just about any veteran ace on the market could be a candidate to team Webb at the top of the rotation, considering how much money the Giants have available.  This could translate to a reunion with Gausman, signing the likes of a Marcus Stroman or a Robbie Ray, or even luring Max Scherzer away from the Dodgers to join the other side of the longtime rivalry.

The Giants have interest in retaining any of their own free agent hurlers, Zaidi said.  With his $130MM deal now up, Cueto would be the least expensive of the group, likely available on a one-year deal.  Wood will require a multi-year pact but his market could be somewhat tempered by his injury history, even though he pitched quite well when healthy in 2021.  Gausman will require one of the largest contracts of any free agent this winter, though there is already optimism that a new deal will be worked out, and the two sides already had some talks about a long-term contract last offseason when Gausman accepted the qualifying offer.

DeSclafani could be a QO candidate himself in the wake of his impressive 2021 season.  The righty has generally pitched well over his seven MLB seasons but with some inconsistency, such as a rough 2020 campaign that allowed San Francisco to sign him to a one-year, $6MM deal last winter that proved to be a bargain.  There is a possibility that DeSclafani could follow in Gausman’s footsteps by accepting the qualifying offer (one year, $18.4MM) and betting on himself for a better platform year in 2022 and larger free agent riches next offseason.  Taking the QO would also allow DeSclafani to lock in a big payday now and avoid any risk of a market squeeze, or the labor uncertainty looming over baseball’s offseason due to the expiring Collective Bargaining Agreement.  On the other hand, DeSclafani turns 32 in April, so he might reject the qualifying offer if he sees this winter as his best chance at a big long-term contract.

At the lower end of the free agent market, any pitcher coming off a poor season or two might as well see San Francisco as the fountain of youth, given the Giants’ success at reclamation projects in recent years.  As a result, it’s safe to assume the Giants might have their pick of just about any veterans available on inexpensive one-year deals.  Younger starting candidates like Sammy Long and Tyler Beede are also in the mix to compete with any of these veterans for a back-end rotation spot come Spring Training.

The Giants had one of the game’s best bullpens last year and the relief corps probably won’t be a huge target area, but at least a couple of new faces are inevitable as more pitchers cycle through on minor league contracts.  If rookie breakout Camilo Doval isn’t quite ready to take over the ninth inning, the Giants might stick with their loose committee system — Jake McGee will likely again get the bulk of save chances, with Doval, Tyler Rogers, Jose Alvarez (whose club option is very likely to be exercised), Zack Littell, and others all chipping in with saves based on situations.

We’ll begin our look at the Giants’ position player mix with catcher, as Posey’s retirement marks the end of a Cooperstown-level career and in some ways a symbolic end to the era that saw the Giants capture World Series titles in 2010, 2012, and 2014.  Posey might also be the perfect symbol of this Giants rebuild, as his return to All-Star status in 2021 after opting out of the 2020 season and an injury-marred 2019 mirrored the team’s own unexpected rise.

Posey’s retirement gives San Francisco even more financial room to maneuver, as the team was going to at least exercise his $22MM option, and a longer-term extension seemed like a distinct possibility.  However, replacing Posey’s 2021 production is a very tall order no matter the money on hand, and it puts more pressure on Joey Bart to immediately deliver on his potential as one of baseball’s best prospects.

Bart hit .294/.358/.472 with 10 home runs over 279 plate appearances for Triple-A Sacramento this season, which represented his first exposure to Triple-A ball.  Bart hasn’t done much over his 35 games and 117 PA at the big league level, but obviously that sample size isn’t representative of what the former second overall pick might have in store for the future.  The Giants are likely to retain Curt Casali as a veteran backup or platoon partner with Bart in 2022, depending on whether or not the youngster is ready for a larger share of the playing time.

While the Giants aren’t going to do anything to hamper Bart’s long-term development, allowing a rookie catcher time to get his feet wet as a Major League player might not be ideal for a club that wants to win in 2022.  It wouldn’t be surprising to see San Francisco acquire a veteran catcher on a one-year contract to essentially take Posey’s role as the short-term bridge to Bart in 2023, though Bart would still get his share of at-bats this coming season.  Whether this scenario would potentially make Casali expendable remains to be seen, and the Giants also have two other interesting catching prospects (Patrick Bailey, Ricardo Genoves) waiting to make their debuts in the next season or two.

With Posey now retired, Brandon Crawford and Brandon Belt are the last Giants remaining from the 2014 championship team.  Belt is a free agent, but we already know Crawford will be staying, as the veteran shortstop rather unexpectedly delivered the best season of his career at age 34, which resulted in a two-year, $32MM contract extension back in August.

Crawford’s extension is both a fitting reward for a long-time franchise fixture, and an interesting early signal for San Francisco’s winter plans.  Since Crawford is now locked up for two more years and star shortstop prospect Marco Luciano is at most a year away from the Show, the Giants might not be inclined to take part in the star-laden free agent shortstop market.  If other teams with greater shortstop needs are targeting those players, it creates an opening for the Giants to focus on prime free agents at other positions.

Or, to pivot, the Giants might look at one of those shortstops at a position other than shortstop.  Marcus Semien, for instance, already spent much of 2021 playing second base for the Blue Jays, and could potentially be willing to take on that role over the longer term to play for a contender (and particularly a contender that plays in Semien’s hometown of San Francisco).  Zaidi’s past job in the Dodgers’ front office has made him very familiar with Corey Seager, and since there is already some sense that Seager will to change positions eventually, it is possible Seager might be open to making the move now under the right circumstances.  For what it’s worth, there hasn’t been speculation that Crawford could switch positions, and that type of move seems unlikely since Crawford continues to be one of the better defensive shortstops around.

Chris Taylor might be a particular free agent name to watch, as he is another player with past ties to Zaidi in Los Angeles, and Taylor’s ability to play multiple positions fits the Giants’ love of versatile players.  Taylor wouldn’t be as expensive as any of the “big five” shortstops (Seager, Semien, Carlos Correa, Javier Baez, and Trevor Story) but he would still require a significant multi-year contract, and some draft pick compensation since he’ll be turning down the Dodgers’ qualifying offer.

Getting another super-utility type would help the Giants juggle playing time around the diamond, since the team already has a lot of available options.  This is the interesting challenge facing Zaidi’s front office this winter when it comes to position player additions — the Giants have had great success in mixing and matching players throughout the lineup, but to take the next step towards a World Series ring, which reliable everyday stars are needed?  And, since pretty much everyone on the roster played well in 2021, which of the productive platoon situations is the team willing to supplant with a single everyday player?

For instance, adding Taylor or the ultra-durable Semien at second base would lock down a position that already has depth, but also question marks.  Wilmer Flores is likely to be retained and Thairo Estrada impressed in limited action in 2021, but Donovan Solano is a free agent and Tommy La Stella’s Opening Day readiness is in question due to Achilles surgery.

For first base, re-signing Belt would seem like an obvious move, and there is already some sense that Belt could be back for a 12th season in San Francisco.  Belt also turns 34 in April and has a lengthy injury history, so Belt may not be able to match his 2020-21 numbers going forward.  For as much payroll space as the Giants have on hand, they might prefer to spend those dollars at another position, and instead rely on some combination of Flores, LaMonte Wade Jr. and Darin Ruf as a first base platoon.

Or, maybe the easier solution is to just re-sign Belt and solidify the first base spot.  Belt has been so good over the last two seasons (.285/.393/.595 with 38 homers over his last 560 PA) that such production is hard to replace, and the NLDS was a prime example of how the Giants lineup sorely missed Belt’s bat.  With the DH likely coming to the National League in 2022, the Giants and other NL teams will be on the lookout for more offense, and having a DH spot available could help Belt stay healthy.  Belt’s big numbers make him another candidate for a qualifying offer, and while it isn’t yet known if the Giants will extend such an offer to the first baseman, there would seem to be at least a chance that Belt might take such a deal.  It would secure Belt another year with his longtime team, while also setting up a chance at another big payday next winter if Belt stays healthy and keeps hitting in 2022.

Evan Longoria is another veteran who is no stranger to the injured list, and a two-month absence due to a shoulder strain was the biggest reason Longoria was limited to only 81 games in 2021.  Longoria hit well when he did play, and with the likes of Flores, Estrada, and La Stella all capable of playing third base, the Giants will probably stand pat at the hot corner barring something unexpected like Seager signing and then changing positions.  This is purely speculation, but if the Giants did have a larger move in mind, Longoria might be an under-the-radar trade candidate since he has only one guaranteed year left on his contract (and the Rays are still paying a notable chunk of Longoria’s salary).

In the outfield, the collection of Bryant, Wade, Ruf, Mike Yastrzemski, Steven Duggar, Austin Slater, Alex Dickerson, and others all combined to give the Giants above-average production.  Re-signing Bryant or a similar everyday name (i.e. Starling Marte, Mark Canha) would account for one position on a regular basis, reducing the number of platoon situations the Giants would have to monitor, and it would also allow players like Wade or Ruf to see more time in the infield.  Dickerson seems like a non-tender or trade candidate, and if another outfielder is acquired, the Giants might feel they have enough of a surplus to make some other outfield names available in trade talks.  Prospect Heliot Ramos didn’t have a great 2021 campaign in the minors, but he should also be available for his MLB debut next year.

Since Bryant is capable of regularly playing or at least filling in at five different positions, re-signing the former NL MVP would seem like a natural way to address San Francisco’s roster needs.  There is enough of a fit that a reunion between the two sides probably can’t be ruled out until Bryant officially signs elsewhere, yet Zaidi seemed to imply that Bryant was only one of many possibilities open to the Giants, and not necessarily a priority.

It is a sign of how the Giants’ approach has evolved that San Francisco now has the luxury of waiting on talents like Bryant, since the Giants have perhaps the most overall flexibility (from both a financial standpoint and a roster standpoint) of any team.  While Zaidi’s tenure has seen the Giants at least make some exploratory measures towards bigger-name acquisitions in the past, this may be the first offseason where Zaidi will have the organization’s full resources behind him, fully directed towards contending and winning.  Expect a lot of rumors and headlines out of San Francisco this winter, as the Giants’ next steps could be the talk of the offseason.

Offseason Outlook: Milwaukee Brewers

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The Brewers’ fourth consecutive postseason appearance ended in more October heartbreak, as the Braves eliminated Milwaukee in four games in the NLDS.  As the Brewers look to contend again next season, some tough financial decisions may have to be made depending on how far ownership is willing to stretch the payroll.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Christian Yelich, OF: $188.5MM through 2028 (includes $6.5MM buyout of $20MM mutual option for 2029)
  • Lorenzo Cain, OF: $18MM through 2022
  • Jackie Bradley Jr., OF: $17.5MM in 2022 (includes $8MM buyout of $12MM mutual option for 2023 — Bradley can opt out of $9.5MM salary for 2022, and receives $6.5MM buyout in the event of an opt-out)
  • Freddy Peralta, SP: $12.75MM through 2024 (includes $1.5MM buyout of $8MM club option for 2025; Brewers also hold $8MM club option for 2026 with no buyout)
  • Kolten Wong, 2B: $10MM in 2022 (includes $2MM buyout of $10MM club option for 2023)
  • Josh Lindblom, RP: $2.75MM in 2022 (Brewers outrighted Lindblom off 40-man roster in May)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

Free Agents

Much of the Brewers’ buzz early in the offseason has focused on their executives being targeted by the Mets, though New York’s inquiries ended up being much ado about nothing.  The Brewers again denied the Mets permission to speak with president of baseball operations David Stearns, and assistant GM Matt Arnold also removed his name from consideration and ended up with a contract extension to remain in Milwaukee.  This situation is worth monitoring for the future, considering that Stearns’ contract may or may not be up after the 2022 season, depending on a possible vesting option that could extend the Brewers’ control over the PBO through 2023.  With the Mets’ interest looming, there is sure to be plenty of attention paid to Stearns’ status with the Brew Crew, though one would expect owner Mark Attanasio to again look into extending his top baseball exec.

For now, Stearns’ focus is on figuring out how to get Milwaukee to take the next step and reach a World Series.  Offense was a problem for the Brewers even as they had a fairly comfortable run to the NL Central title, and the issue came to a head when the Brewers scored only six runs in their four games with Atlanta.  A change has already been made at hitting coach, but some lineup reinforcements are also a must.

Looking at the more settled positions, Willy Adames, Kolten Wong, and breakout player Luis Urias all hit well in 2021 and have three of the infield spots covered.  All-Star catcher Omar Narvaez slumped badly in the second half but still finished with roughly league-average offense (99 OPS+ and wRC+) for the season, which represents a bounce-back from a brutal 2020 campaign.

Manny Pina hit well enough to make up for some of Narvaez’s late struggles, though Pina is now set for free agency after six years as a part-time starter and backup in Milwaukee.  There is enough need for catching around the league that another team could offer Pina a more regular job, though the 34-year-old could reunite with the Brewers on a new contract if Pina is comfortable in his current role.  If Pina doesn’t re-sign, the Crew will be on the hunt for a new backup catcher, preferably a right-handed hitter considering Narvaez’s lack of production against southpaws.  Prospect Mario Feliciano is also on hand, and Luke Maile could return if tendered a contract.

Eduardo Escobar is another free agent, and is less likely to return considering that Wong and Urias are slated for everyday work at second and third base.  This is another area where the Brewers will be looking for backup options, likely a utility type given the front office’s penchant for versatile players.  Retaining Jace Peterson could help in that regard, and the Brewers could pair Peterson with a right-handed hitter to provide additional coverage on the bench.

Rowdy Tellez was streaky and spent some time on the injured list, but the slugger hit well after being acquired from the Blue Jays in July, and Tellez seems to be penciled in for at least a share of the first base job.  This leaves Daniel Vogelbach as a possible non-tender candidate, as even if the National League has a DH position available in 2022, having both Tellez and Vogelbach as left-handed hitting first base-only players seems like a redundancy.  Tellez is over two years younger than Vogelbach, has an extra year of team control and had better numbers in 2020-21, though Vogelbach did miss a good chunk of last season due to injury.  All things considered, it would seem like the Brewers would favor Tellez over Vogelbach, though with only a $2MM projected salary for Vogelbach, it wouldn’t break the bank to keep him around.

A right-handed complement seems like a necessary add for the first base/DH mix, though Milwaukee is probably still hopeful that Keston Hiura can fill that role from within.  Hiura is only 25 years old and has just 791 MLB plate appearances to his name, and while the Brewers aren’t likely to give up on the former top prospect, adding a more proven veteran seems logical given how badly Hiura has struggled over the last two seasons.  Ideally, the Brewers could find a versatile player who can hit from the right side and fill in at several infield spots (i.e. Josh Harrison, Asdrubal Cabrera, Matt Duffy).  If the team looked to just first base-only types, Milwaukee could be a hypothetical landing spot for Albert Pujols, as odd as it would be to see Pujols on an NL Central team besides the Cardinals.

The outfield is far less set than the infield, even if three outfield starters are technically already in place.  Jackie Bradley Jr. is coming off a rough year at the plate and is sure to exercise his $9.5MM player option for 2022 rather than test free agency.  Lorenzo Cain will return for the final year of his contract, and Christian Yelich’s contract extension will now officially begin, as 2022 is the first season of the seven years and $188.5MM in new money guaranteed under the terms of his deal.

Yelich is the biggest question, as in the two seasons since inking that extension, he’s gone from perennial MVP candidate to only slightly more than a league-average bat — his .234/.360/.392 slash line over 722 PA in 2020-21 translates to a 103 OPS+ and 105 wRC+.  Yelich is still making plenty of hard contact but his power numbers have dwindled, his strikeout rate has risen sharply, and opposing teams have been using the shift much more frequently against him, which has sapped his offensive production.

Cain is another player whose bat has gone south, hitting only .260/.328/.381 in 930 PA since the start of the 2019 season.  Cain opted out for much of the 2020 campaign and sandwiched that lost year between two injury-plagued seasons, so the Brewers simply can’t be sure of what to expect from Cain as he enters his age-36 season.  The same goes for Bradley, who was healthy last year but his offense absolutely cratered in his first year in Milwaukee.

Considering Yelich, Cain, and Bradley are the three highest-paid players on Milwaukee’s payroll, this certainly isn’t a welcome situation for a team with a fairly limited mid-market budget.  The Brew Crew has no recourse but to count on a rebound from Yelich given their long-term commitment, and since Cain and Bradley are still providing superb defense, the Brewers could just go with a Cain/Bradley platoon in center field and give the promising Tyrone Taylor a clear shot at everyday at-bats in right field.

Avisail Garcia was far and away the best hitter in Milwaukee’s 2021 outfield, but he amassed just enough plate appearances to trigger a vesting option in his contract, turning the Brewers’ $12MM club option for 2022 into a mutual option.  It can be reasonably assumed that the team would still want to retain Garcia at that price, though since mutual options are rarely agreed upon by both sides, it seems likely that Garcia will decline his end of the deal and test the free agent market in search of a longer-term commitment.

This leaves a big hole in the Brewers’ lineup, though some scenarios exist where Garcia is back in Milwaukee next year.  Assuming he opts for free agency, the Brewers could then issue a qualifying offer — Garcia might be more open to a one-year deal for an $18.4MM payday than for $12MM.  If Garcia declined the QO, the Brewers could at least recoup a compensatory draft pick if he signed elsewhere.  If Garcia accepted the QO, that puts another hefty salary on the Brewers’ books, but the team could pivot by trying to see what they could get for Cain or Bradley on the trade market.

Cain or Bradley alone would be tough sells as trade chips, unless the Brewers were to take on another team’s unpalatable contract…or if the Brewers paired one of those outfielders with a more sought-after trade asset.  You guessed it, it’s time for another offseason of Josh Hader trade speculation, and packaging the All-Star closer as part of a larger deal would be a bold way for the Crew to both clear some salary space and bring some young talent into the pipeline.

Hader delivered another excellent season, and his salary is now set to jump from $6.675MM to a projected $10MM in his third of four arbitration-eligible years.  That is still quite a reasonable sum for arguably the best reliever in baseball, yet it does represent a big portion of Milwaukee’s payroll, so the time may finally be right for the Brewers to pull the trigger on a Hader deal.

It doesn’t seem likely that the Crew would spend much to replace Hader, as Devin Williams is already the heir apparent at closer and Brent Suter had a nice year as a setup man.  The Brewers have consistently been able to score with inexpensive bullpen additions, so while Brad Boxberger and Hunter Strickland are set for free agency, the club will probably look to fill those gaps and the potential loss of Hader with other lower-level additions.

The bullpen is also supported by one of the sport’s best rotations.  Corbin Burnes will receive Cy Young Award consideration, Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta weren’t too far behind, and Eric Lauer, Adrian Houser, and Brett Anderson all provided quality work at the back end.  Anderson is a free agent, so Milwaukee could give youngster Aaron Ashby a longer look as a starter, or bring in another low-cost veteran hurler if Anderson himself isn’t brought back.

Hader is the priciest member of a large Milwaukee arbitration class that projects to top the $40MM threshold, even after subtracting a few non-tender candidates.  Between the arb-eligibles, the players on guaranteed contracts, and the pre-arbitration players, Roster Resource calculates around $112.4MM on the Brewers’ books for 2022.  This already represents the larger Brewers payroll since Attanasio bought the team in 2005, though in 2019 (the last pre-pandemic season), the Brew Crew’s payroll surged to over $132MM by the end of the year.

With 2022 promising to be a more normal year revenue-wise, could ownership green-light another spending bump?  Returning to even 2019’s spending levels would give Stearns some flexibility in making offseason moves, and perhaps allow a decision on Hader’s future to be held off until next winter.  In fact, all those rising arbitration costs for key pitchers could lead to more tough decisions as early as the 2022-23 offseason, so an argument can be made that this roster should be given one last chance to win a championship before the Brewers have to start thinking about parting ways with other core pieces.

This doesn’t necessarily mean that we’ll see another blockbuster move like the Cain signing or Yelich’s extension.  The Brewers have enough talent in place that just a return to form from Yelich in 2022 might be all the club needs to make more noise in the playoffs.  With no guarantee of that scenario, however, expect the team to add at least one big bat to guard against another October power outage.

MLBTR Poll: Will J.D. Martinez Opt Out?

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With all but two teams eliminated and the offseason proper fast approaching, focus across much of baseball has shifted to 2022, particularly given an unusually strong free agent class and an uncertain (and volatile) labor situation. As previously noted by MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk, this means the resurfacing of what’s become an annual question: will J.D. Martinez exercise the opt-out clause in his contract with the Red Sox?

This will be Martinez’s third and final opportunity to opt out of the front-loaded five-year/$110MM deal he signed with Boston following the 2017 season. That call was probably never on the table last year, thanks to a less-than-stellar showing (.680 OPS, more than 200 points below his career average) in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. It was a live possibility after 2019, though, when he put together a .304/.383/.557 line on the heels of a monster .330/.402/.629 mark in 2018. He has one year and $19.375MM left on his deal and is essentially a lock to receive a qualifying offer (set for $18.4MM) should he choose to test the market.

Following a bounceback 2021 (.286/.349/.518 in 634 plate appearances) that saw Martinez return to roughly his career averages, the opt-out is again a real option, though it does not come without potential downside. Martinez told WEEI’s Rob Bradford in late September that he’s “right in the middle” on the decision. While it’s entirely possible that his public statements are mere posturing, there are good reasons for Martinez to waffle on a decision that would require him to leave significant guaranteed money on the table without a clear picture of what the market or labor situation are likely to look like. The rumor mill is split on the issue, with Ken Rosenthal suggesting (on the Athletic Baseball Show) that he expects Martinez to exercise the clause while Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe is less convinced, particularly given the uncertain state of the universal DH.

On one hand, the 34-year-old Martinez has an enviable track-record (his .881 career OPS ranks 10th among active players) and proved in 2021 that his bat still has enough pop to make any lineup stronger. Indeed, Martinez’s would-be walk year showed few significant signs of decline; he maintained a K% and BB% (23.7% and 8.7%) roughly in line with both his career marks and MLB averages and a hard-hit rate (defined as the percentage of balls in play with an exit velocity of 95 mph or higher) of 49.4% that falls only just below his career mark of 50.8% and well above the MLB average of 38.7%. He also stayed mostly healthy, playing in 148 regular-season and nine postseason games for the Red Sox, though a late-season ankle sprain did keep him out of Boston’s AL Wild Card matchup with the Yankees.

On the other, Martinez’s defensive limitations don’t necessarily limit him to DH-only status but do make it unlikely any team would bank on playing him in the outfield on more than an occasional basis. While he was solid in limited defensive action in 2021 (2 defensive runs saved in 36 games), his career numbers tell a different story (-38 DRS, though 35 of these came in right field), and he hasn’t seen action in the outfield more than 60 times in a season since a poor showing (-18 DRS) across 118 games in right for Detroit in 2016. The probable introduction of the DH to the National League in the new CBA likely expands his market but does little to extend his on-field value.

With significant but mostly one-dimensional production, Martinez’s decision isn’t the easiest. Arguably a top-20 free agent in a strong class, Martinez is likely to receive some multi-year offers, but it’s unlikely many GMs will be eager to give a player with limited defensive value and nearing the back half of his 30s anything remotely approaching the deal he signed with the Red Sox — particularly as it will also cost them a draft pick. Another front-loaded deal is a real possibility, but teams will likely ask Martinez to take a cut in AAV for any significant length.

Accordingly, the question likely comes down to which Martinez values more: his short-term salary or a longer-term guarantee. Will Martinez bet on himself to put up another strong year and hit the market next offseason in a similar situation, or will he try to cash in on his strong 2021 and seek a longer deal?

 

(Link to poll for Trade Rumors app users)

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