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Offseason In Review: Pittsburgh Pirates

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It was a quiet winter in Pittsburgh, to be expected for a team still firmly in the midst of a rebuild. The Bucs made a couple low-cost additions on the margins, but it’s another evaluative season for the front office. The biggest move for the franchise: a Spring Training extension with a player they expect to be an integral part of their next core, one that marked the largest investment in the organization’s history.

Major League Signings

2022 spending: $16.025MM
Total spending: $16.225M

Trades and claims

Extensions

  • Signed 3B Ke’Bryan Hayes to an eight-year, $70MM extension (deal also includes 2030 club option and potentially buys out four free agent seasons)

Notable Minor League Signees

Notable Losses

The Pirates are still firmly in rebuild mode, one of a handful of teams that enters the 2022 season with no real hope of contending. As with Ben Cherington’s first two years as general manager, the Bucs entered the winter looking as if they’d be one of the league’s least active teams. They again shied away from any long-term commitments to players outside the organization, but Pittsburgh was comparatively more aggressive this time around than they’d been in recent seasons. After spending just $7.25MM in free agency over the prior two winters combined, the Bucs exceeded $16MM in open market expenditures this year to bring in a handful of veteran role players.

The first of those acquisitions was southpaw José Quintana, a former All-Star who has fallen on hard times. Quintana hasn’t posted a full season out of the rotation since 2019, as he missed the bulk of the 2020 campaign with injury and was kicked to the bullpen last June after a dreadful beginning to the year. The 33-year-old had by far the worst ERA of his career (6.43) in 63 innings with the Angels and Giants last season, surprisingly struggling to throw strikes. Yet he also missed bats at a personal-best rate, and he’s a perfectly sensible flier for a modest $2MM.

Quintana steps into an otherwise very young rotation as a veteran stabilizer. The Bucs hope his acquisition will turn out as last winter’s Tyler Anderson signing did. Anderson was a competent starter for the season’s first half, took the ball every fifth day, then netted the Pirates a couple prospects at the trade deadline. Quintana will need to be better this season than he was in 2021 to attract interest from contenders, but there’s little harm in trying.

Not long after bringing Quintana aboard, the Pirates worked out a one-year deal to keep Yoshi Tsutsugo around. Pittsburgh signed the former NPB star after he was released by the Dodgers in August and watched him turn in the best month and a half of his MLB career down the stretch. That late-season showing earned Tsutsugo a few million dollars and an everyday first base job, as Pittsburgh then jettisoned their previous lefty-hitting first baseman Colin Moran. The Pirates couldn’t trade Tsutsugo last fall (and his impressive showing was probably in too small a sample to merit much interest anyhow), but he’d intrigue contenders if he continues to perform at that level in this season’s first half.

Small pickups aside, the Pirates obviously remained amenable to moving veteran players off the roster. The most straightforward trade candidate of the bunch was catcher Jacob Stallings. The 32-year-old has blossomed into a Gold Glove defender and is still plenty affordable, but his age made him an unlikely long-term fit in Pittsburgh. The Bucs moved him to the Marlins for righty Zach Thompson and prospects Kyle Nicolas (a 2020 second-rounder) and Connor Scott (the No. 13 overall pick in 2018) shortly before the lockout.

Structurally, that deal made sense for both teams. The Marlins were aggressive in rebuilding their lineup in an effort to contend immediately. Pittsburgh grabbed a pair of minor leaguers and a depth arm in Thompson who had been squeezed out of Miami’s loaded starting pitching mix. The Pirates have more opportunity to take a look at Thompson, a 28-year-old who was available in minor league free agency a season ago but pitched to a 3.24 ERA with a solid 11.7% swinging strike rate as a rookie. He didn’t accrue a full year of service in 2021, meaning he can be controlled another six seasons.

With Stallings gone and backup catcher Michael Pérez previously outrighted off the 40-man roster, the Pirates had to bring in two catchers. The starter is former Cleveland backstop Roberto Pérez, inked to a $5MM deal shortly after the Stallings trade. Pérez doesn’t offer much at the plate, but he’s a gifted defender who was lauded for his work with Cleveland’s young pitchers. As with Quintana and Tsutsugo, he could be a deadline trade candidate, but Pittsburgh may value his intangible presence enough to hold onto him all year rather than recoup a minimal prospect return. Just before Opening Day, the Bucs brought in former Phillie Andrew Knapp to back Pérez up.

Pittsburgh took a couple more low-cost shots to round out the infield. First baseman/DH Daniel Vogelbach signed for $1MM after being non-tendered by the Brewers. He adds an on-base oriented lefty bat to the mix and is controllable for multiple seasons; Vogelbach has a cheap club option in 2023 and would be arbitration-eligible in 2024. Also controllable for multiple seasons is lefty-swinging utilityman Josh VanMeter, who was acquired from the D-Backs in Spring Training. Pittsburgh gave up a minor league pitcher to land the out-of-options VanMeter, suggesting they believe he’s capable of sticking on the active roster all year (and maybe beyond).

VanMeter joins young players like Diego Castillo, Hoy Park and Michael Chavis in the mix at second base. He could also see some time in the outfield, where holdovers Ben Gamel and Cole Tucker have jobs. The Pirates claimed Greg Allen (who’ll miss the first couple months of the season with a hamstring injury) and signed Jake Marisnick to fill out the depth on the grass.

The left side of the infield figures to eventually be manned by two of the Pirates’ most promising young players. Ke’Bryan Hayes will be around at third base for the long haul (more on that in a minute), while shortstop prospect Oneil Cruz is one of the sport’s most electrifying young talents. Cruz is opening the season in the minors after being optioned to Triple-A Indianapolis, a move that looked to be motivated by service time considerations. He doesn’t have much experience at the minors’ top level, to which the Pirates can point as justification. Yet it’s difficult to argue he’s not a better player than the light-hitting Kevin Newman already, and a non-competitive 2022 season should give the team plenty of time to live with any growing pains the 6’7″ Cruz experiences on either side of the ball.

Newman will hold down shortstop for now, as he has for a few seasons. The Pirates would probably be amenable to dealing him as well, although there may not be enough interest in a glove-only player to generate a ton of demand. It’s possible Newman just kicks over to second base or the bench whenever Cruz returns to the majors.

There’s no question, on the other hand, that rival teams would love to get their hands on star outfielder Bryan Reynolds. The switch-hitting Reynolds has been an excellent hitter in both full seasons of his MLB career. He’s drawn attention from teams like the Marlins, Mariners, Yankees, Brewers and Padres (and doubtless many more) since last summer’s deadline alone. Pittsburgh has maintained they’re more inclined to build around Reynolds than trade him, made all the more evident by the reported asking price they’ve floated in talks.

Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald reported last month that the Pirates wanted both Kahlil Watson and Max Meyer, each of whom are generally ranked among the game’s top 75 or so prospects, in any Reynolds deal. Pittsburgh’s demand from the Padres hasn’t been reported, but Dennis Lin of the Athletic wrote that San Diego considered it “prohibitive.” Cherington more or less confirmed the Bucs would only move Reynolds for a king’s ransom last week (link via Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette). “Bryan is a really good player,” Cherington said. “He’s also young, and we’re not winning yet. You combine all those things, teams are gonna call. … Those calls are incoming calls. They’re not outgoing calls.”

Those calls will keep coming, at least unless the Pirates and Reynolds work out a long-term deal. The team controls him through 2025 via arbitration. Reynolds reportedly turned down an extension offer from the Bucs prior to the 2021 season, and he told Mackey that talks about a long-term deal never seriously arose this spring. The sides figure to revisit discussions at some point down the road, but for now, they’ll presumably proceed through arbitration with their star outfielder.

That’s a path they won’t have to take with Hayes, as they agreed to terms with their franchise third baseman on an eight-year extension on Opening Day. The deal guarantees him $70MM, setting a new high-water mark for a franchise commitment to a single player. Nevertheless, it’s a more than reasonable price to pay for essentially the entirety of Hayes’ prime. The deal buys out as much as four free agent years and could keep him around through his age-33 season. For a player who ranked No. 15 on Baseball America’s top prospects list heading into 2021, it’s a sensible investment.

Interestingly, Pittsburgh front-loaded the Hayes deal. That’s an unconventional tack for an early-career extension, which typically align with the standard year-by-year process of progressively paying players more later in the deal for what would’ve been their arbitration and free agent seasons. Instead, the Bucs will pay Hayes $10MM apiece in each of the next two years before paying him $7-8MM per season through the rest of the decade. That gets the young third baseman some noteworthy money up front while allowing the Pirates to keep a fair bit of cash in reserve for future seasons when they anticipate being more competitive.

Who’ll join Hayes as part of the core remains to be seen. Reynolds seemingly will, barring a Godfather-style offer from another team. The Pirates no doubt hope Cruz breaks through, while recent first-round draftees Henry Davis and Nick Gonzales are among the other hitters coming up the pipeline. Much of the attention will again be focused on the minor leagues, but the Pirates have a few arms in the majors trying to pitch their way into the long-term picture.

Mitch Keller and Bryse Wilson are former top prospects who have struggled thus far in their MLB careers. It very well could be a make-of-break year for both righties, but they should get another extended look in 2022. Thompson and JT Brubaker are older and don’t have the prospect pedigree of Keller or Wilson, but they’ve each flashed enough against major league hitters to intrigue. Roansy Contreras and Miguel Yajure each came over from the Yankees in the January 2021 Jameson Taillon deal and could be long-term starting options. Contreras, in particular, is a consensus top 100 prospect whom many evaluators suggest has mid-rotation upside. Not everyone in that group will develop, but the Bucs have plenty of innings to go around in hopes that a couple cement their places on the 2023 pitching staff.

That’s true of the bullpen as well, where Contreras and Yajure are currently stationed. David Bednar broke out as a late-game weapon last season and is controllable through 2026. Reliever performance is volatile enough the Bucs would probably still be open to trade calls on the hard-throwing righty, but he seems likelier to stick around for a few years. Veterans Chris Stratton and Heath Hembree — the latter of whom signed a one-year deal this winter after striking out 34.2% of opponents in 2021 — are more obvious midseason trade candidates.

In aggregate, 2022 will be another rough season for the Pirates and their fans. The club is still firmly in “evaluation” mode of the rebuild, although the hoped-for light at the end of the tunnel is coming closer into view. The time hasn’t yet come for the Pirates to make particularly meaningful pickups on the open market or via trade, but they’ve locked up Hayes as a key piece of the future and declined to move Reynolds for anything more than a massive return. Some of this offseason’s stopgap adds could be dealt away in the coming months, but the Bucs have begun to lay the foundation for what they hope to be their next competitive teams.

Offseason In Review: Los Angeles Angels

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After another season of underwhelming results on the mound, the Angels poured a significant portion of their resources into the pitching staff. This year’s arms have more upside than most of the Anaheim staffs of years past, but there’s still some uncertainty at the back end and a couple notable question marks on the position player side.

Major League Signings

2022 spending: $59.25MM
Total spending: $123.75MM

Trades and Claims

Extensions

  • Signed C Max Stassi to a three-year, $17.5MM extension (deal also includes 2025 club option and potentially buys out three free agent seasons)

Notable Minor League Signees

Notable Losses

At the outset of the offseason, general manager Perry Minasian said the front office was hoping to “significantly improve” the starting rotation. Angels fans may have had hopes for a splash on a top-of-the-market arm like Max Scherzer, Kevin Gausman or Robbie Ray, but it quickly became apparent the team remained averse to making a long-term commitment to a free agent starter.

Fortunately for the Angels, this offseason presented a few opportunities to add firepower to the starting staff while avoiding a lengthy investment. A trio of starters — Noah Syndergaard, Justin Verlander and Carlos Rodón — hit free agency with top-of-the-rotation production not far in the rearview mirror but serious enough health- and/or age-related red flags to keep them from cashing in at the top of the market. Los Angeles checked in on Verlander’s health early in the winter, but they struck quickly to lure Syndergaard away from the Mets as their big rotation add.

Syndergaard had only pitched two innings in the past two seasons on account of a March 2020 Tommy John surgery. He posted an ERA of 3.24 or lower in three of his four full seasons in Queens, though, giving skipper Joe Maddon a possible top-of-the-rotation arm. In terms of 2022 spending, Syndergaard proved the biggest addition to the roster, and the Angels forfeited a draft choice to roll the dice on a bounceback. If he returns to his pre-surgery form, he’ll be well worth the investment, and the front office/ownership can reevaluate next winter whether to make an exception to their aversion to long-term deals.

Alongside Syndergaard, Los Angeles took a lower-risk flier on another volatile arm: Michael Lorenzen. The right-hander has worked almost exclusively in relief since his 2015 rookie season with the Reds, but he hit the open market in search of a rotation opportunity. The Angels obliged, reasoning that Lorenzen’s combination of athleticism and five-pitch mix could allow him to be effective in a heavier role. The Anaheim native is coming off a rough season, in which he pitched through some shoulder trouble, but he’s been an effective reliever in years past.

Those two new hurlers step into a six-man starting staff also comprising two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani, José Suarez, Patrick Sandoval and Reid Detmers. The Angels reportedly inquired on the availability of Reds All-Star Luis Castillo before the lockout, but there’s no indication talks got far and Cincinnati ultimately held Castillo into the season. One could argue the Angels should’ve added another arm to the group, particularly with top depth option Griffin Canning facing another extended injury absence. All six of the Angels’ starters have question marks (most related to durability/workload concerns), but it’s also a talented staff with more ceiling than the groups the team has rolled out in recent seasons.

In addition to their rotation pickups, they kicked off a series of notable bullpen moves in the days leading up to the lockout. Closer Raisel Iglesias was the top reliever on this year’s free agent market. He rejected the team’s qualifying offer, but they struck to bring him back on a four-year deal. Iglesias has posted a sub-3.00 ERA in four of five seasons since moving to the bullpen full-time. The Angels bought low to acquire him in a trade with Cincinnati the prior offseason, but they issued the fourth-largest contract ever given to a reliever to keep him from departing on the open market.

Retaining Iglesias was a critical move to keeping the late-inning group intact, but Minasian and his staff set out for more. Even with an excellent year from Iglesias, the Angels bullpen posted a 4.59 ERA last season. That’s not good enough for any hopeful contender, and the rotation’s durability concerns make the middle innings group all the more important.

Even before re-upping Iglesias, Minasian and company brought in southpaw Aaron Loup on a two-year deal. The veteran is coming off an incredible season for the Mets and wound up receiving the loftiest guarantee of any free agent lefty bullpen arm this winter. Following the lockout, righties Archie Bradley and Ryan Tepera followed Loup to Orange County, lessening the need to rely on pitchers like Mike Mayers and Austin Warren in high-leverage spots.

Those additions should solidify the middle to late innings, but the emphasis on the pitching staff came at a cost. The Halos devoted virtually all of their financial resources in upgrading on the mound, seemingly leaving little left over for a position player group that’s not without weaknesses of its own.

The only external pickups on the position player side were infielders Matt Duffy, Tyler Wade and Andrew Velazquez — each of whom came at little cost. The Halos re-upped backup catcher Kurt Suzuki on a small one-year deal as well. That course of action was a vote of confidence in the position player core, or at least a declaration that Angels brass viewed the pitching staff as a much greater concern.

Obviously, the Angels can go toe-to-toe with any team in baseball in terms of star talent. Ohtani is fresh off an MVP-winning campaign the likes of which we haven’t seen in decades. Mike Trout missed much of last season with a calf injury that didn’t heal as quickly as anyone hoped or expected, but he’s back in the lineup and might still be the best player in MLB. Anthony Rendon is coming off an injury-plagued season of his own, but he’s only a year removed from being among the game’s top handful of third basemen.

Beyond that trio, Jared Walsh broke out as an All-Star first baseman and middle-of-the-order presence. Max Stassi has more quietly emerged as a productive catcher on both sides of the ball. He’s endeared himself to the front office in the process, as they signed him to a three-year extension this spring to keep him from hitting the open market next winter. That’s five lineup spots accounted for with above-average or better players, but the depth behind that group is shakier.

The middle infield, in particular, looks like one of the weaker spots for any hopeful contender. David Fletcher signed a long-term extension last winter, but he’s coming off a miserable offensive season. Fletcher’s a good defender who has been serviceable at the plate on the strength of his bat-to-ball skills in the past. He was always going to get a shot to rebound, but the Angels curiously did very little to add any insurance.

Duffy is coming off a decent season with the Cubs and could outhit Fletcher at the keystone. Even in that event, the Angels might need Fletcher playing regularly at shortstop. Last offseason’s flier on José Iglesias didn’t work, and the club took even less initiative at the position this time around. Wade and Velazquez were both acquired after being designated for assignment by the Yankees, a team that itself spent much of the winter chasing shortstop help. Despite a star-studded free agent class, the Angels seemingly sat that market out and were content with those depth pickups supplementing in-house options Jack Mayfield and Luis Rengifo.

It seems that’s largely a payroll concern. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported last month that Los Angeles had looked into the possibility of adding a right-handed bat but ultimately proved reluctant to keep spending after signing Bradley and Tepera. The Halos entered the season with a franchise-record payroll in the $182MM range. They might simply be nearing owner Arte Moreno’s financial limits, and rebooting the pitching staff took priority over the bottom of the order.

That’s also a concern in the outfield, where the group around Trout is unsettled. Brandon Marsh is opening the year as the everyday left fielder. That’s a perfectly defensible course of action given his recent top prospect status, but he’s not a lock to hold his own at the dish. Marsh should be an asset defensively, but he struck out in an untenable 35% of his plate appearances as a rookie.

Right field, meanwhile, is even more of a question mark. Jo Adell is another still-young former top prospect who has thus far yet to show he can hit big league pitching. It’s certainly not out of the question he finds another gear, but that’s not an inevitability. In fact, it’s not even clear Adell will play regularly once Taylor Ward returns from the injured list. Maddon told reporters last week he viewed Ward as the primary right fielder (link via Sam Blum of the Athletic). Ward is coming off a capable season but has a below-average career track record of his own.

The Angels will need steps forward from a young player or two, lest the lineup again become a bit too top-heavy. While there may not be everyday run available for Adell out of the gate, he figures to eventually get a chance to play his way back into the mix if he makes strides from a bat-to-ball perspective. The Angels released veteran corner outfielder Justin Upton at the end of the spring, placing even more pressure on the likes of Marsh, Adell and Ward to perform capably.

After missing the playoffs in seven straight years, the Angels are gearing up for another shot at hopeful contention. There’s no alternative with a core as talented as theirs, and they open the year with a higher-ceiling rotation than the ones which have so frequently let them down. Yet it still remains in question whether there’s enough depth to withstand some inevitable pitching injuries and bottom-of-the-lineup struggles to post their first winning season since 2015.

Offseason In Review: Baltimore Orioles

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The Orioles’ rebuild continues to slouch forward. But with their best prospects on the cusp of breaking the majors, perhaps they’re about to turn a corner.

Major League Signings

  • Jordan Lyles, SP: one-year, $7MM plus club option for 2023
  • Robinson Chirinos, C, one-year, $900K plus incentives
  • Rougned Odor, 2B: one-year, $700K (Rangers paying the remainder of the $12.3MM remaining on his contract)
  • Total spend: $8.6MM

Options Exercised

  • None

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

The biggest headlines surrounding the Orioles this season involved things that didn’t end up happening. John Means had his name come up in trade talks, though a deal never materialized. Cedric Mullins was a popular target for teams around the league, though he is also still in Baltimore. Ditto for Austin Hays and Trey Mancini. As the offseason wore on and Carlos Correa lingered on the open market, it was suggested by some that the Orioles could be dark horse candidate to sign him, due both to their lack of spending commitments and the connection with GM Mike Elias. While with Houston, Elias was reportedly the one who convinced the rest of the Astros’ front office that they should take Correa with the first overall pick in the 2012 draft. As fun as that would have been, that also didn’t happen.

In the early portion of the offseason, the club made a handful of waiver claims and minor league deals. Just on the verge of the lockout, in late November, they signed Rougned Odor to a major league deal. With Odor still being paid by the Rangers as part of the extension he signed in 2017, the Orioles were able to bring him aboard at the league minimum rate. He hasn’t posted a wRC+ above 100 since 2016, but there’s virtually no risk for the O’s to give him a shot and see if he can turn himself into a valuable trade chip for them.

On December 1st, with just a few hours to go until the lockout was set to begin, it was announced that Baltimore had agreed to sign Jordan Lyles to a one-year, $7MM guarantee. (It wouldn’t be made official until after the lockout.) This would go on to be the biggest move of their offseason. In fact, this is the largest contract handed out by Elias since he was hired as the GM in 2018. It seems the M.O. is to focus on the youth pipeline until it’s fully connected to the majors, with little concern given to the short-term competitiveness or watchability of the big league team. Spend as little as possible and wait for the kids to arrive.

In other offseason news, it was announced in January that the dimensions of Oriole Park at Camden Yards would be changing, with the left field fences being both pushed back and elevated. This is an attempt to curtail the extreme homer-friendly nature of the park, which has allowed the most dingers in the league since it opened in 1992. Elias later admitted that the club also hopes this will help them lure free agent pitchers to Baltimore in future seasons.

After the lockout, the Lyles deal was made official and the O’s also signed Robinson Chirinos. At the time, the 37-year-old was the only catcher on the 40-man roster but was still expected to be the backup to top prospect Adley Rutschman. But Chirinos will become the starting catcher for now, as Rutschman was later shut down with a triceps strain that’s expected to keep him out of action until mid-April. Anthony Bemboom was upgraded from depth option to big league backup.

As the calendar flipped to April, Tanner Scott and Cole Sulser were sent to Miami. In exchange, Baltimore received a couple of prospects, a player to be named later and the Marlins’ pick in Competitive Balance Round B in the upcoming draft, yet another move dedicated towards building the team of the future. After that, Chris Owings had his contract selected. He had a  .326/.420/.628 line with the Rockies last year before a broken thumb curtailed the remainder of his season. He can act as a veteran utility man and perhaps turn into a trade chip if he can hit at anywhere near last year’s pace.

That’s surely what Orioles fans will be focused on, the future, for the present and the recent past provide little to feel good about. Baltimore has finished last in the AL East in four out of the last five seasons, with the only exception being the shortened 2020 campaign when the Red Sox burrowed beneath them. Five years of almost constant basement dwelling seem almost certainly to carry forward into a sixth, as Baltimore’s four division mates are all projected to be quite strong yet again, on the heels of each winning at least 91 games last year.

When it comes to the future, though, there’s plenty to be excited about. Baseball America’s most recent Organization Talent Rankings placed the Orioles system fourth on the list, with many of the club’s top prospects nearing their MLB debuts. Rutschman, considered by many to be the best prospect in the game right now, seemed like he had a chance to crack the Opening Day roster before the unfortunate injury news. That will push his debut down the road but hopefully not for too long. Grayson Rodriguez will start this year in Triple-A, meaning he could push for a roster spot soon. D.L. Hall and Gunnar Henderson will be just behind in Double-A.

The path out of the bottom of the AL East will be steep, but with an impressive collection of prospects about to join the squad, it’s possible that this is the year where it actually feels like the Orioles are climbing. Though they haven’t spent any money in recent years, that also means they have a wide open future payroll. Just about everything comes off the books this year, including the ill-fated Chris Davis contract. Though 2022 is likely to be another dreadful year, it should only get better from here.

Offseason In Review: Colorado Rockies

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Despite three straight losing seasons, the Rockies believe in their core and backed it up with a series of extensions, along with one huge free agent strike.

Major League Signings

Options Exercised

  • Charlie Blackmon, OF: exercised $21MM player option. (Blackmon also has a $10MM player option for 2023 and has already said he will exercise that option as well.)

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Notable Losses

The Rockies have long had a reputation for loyalty, often filling their front office vacancies from within. The most recent evidence of this was last year’s hiring of Bill Schmidt to replace departing general manager Jeff Bridich. Schmidt has been with the Rockies since 1999 and became interim GM in May of last year. The “interim” tag was dropped from his title just as the regular season was winding down in early October, allowing Schmidt to head into his first offseason as the one making the baseball decisions.

Schmidt decided to pay that loyalty forward to the players, as he handed out extensions to four members of the roster. Just a few days after officially becoming GM, even before the playoffs were done and the offseason began in earnest, C.J. Cron and Antonio Senzatela were signed to stick around. In Cron’s case, he was a few weeks away from hitting free agency. Senzatela was still two years away from the open market, but the club also announced his extension on the same day as Cron’s, keeping him in the mountains through at least 2026, with a club option for 2027.

A few weeks later, it was Elias Diaz’s turn. The catcher had one year of team control remaining, but the club gave him a three-year deal, allowing them to hold on to him for an extra two seasons. After the lockout, the Rockies managed to get one more player to put pen to paper, signing Ryan McMahon to a five-year extension that bought out his final two years of arbitration eligibility and his first three free agent years. (However, McMahon can earn the right to opt out of the deal if he becomes an MVP contender.)

The club’s apparent faith in their guys is admirable, though it often clashes with the way they are viewed from the outside. In February of 2020, owner Dick Monfort predicted a 94-win season for the club, despite the fact that they were coming off a 71-91 finish in 2019 and hadn’t made any significant outside additions. After the pandemic reduced the season to just 60 games, Colorado ended up going 26-34. Given the unprecedented nature of that bizarre year, it would have been understandable if they didn’t want to drastically alter their view of their own organization. However, they did trade away Nolan Arenado after a public spat between the star and the team. Despite that, the faith remained, as Monfort had this to say in the wake of the Arenado deal in February of 2021: “I truly in my heart believe that this is a very talented team that underperformed the last couple of years. I’m not even going to count last year because it was a difficult year, but I think we underperformed.” Despite that belief in the core, it was another disappointing season in 2021, as the club went 74-87, staring way up at the Giants and Dodgers, who topped the division with 107 and 106 wins, respectively.

There won’t be 100% continuity, though, as there will be a couple of significant players absent. As last year’s trade deadline neared, the Rockies were sitting on a record of 46-59, 13 1/2 games out of a playoff spot. They had a couple of quality regulars in Jon Gray and Trevor Story who made for logical trade chips as they were both heading into free agency at season’s end. However, both players stayed in Colorado beyond the deadline, something that left Story feeling confused. In Gray’s case, the club made an attempt to extend him with an offer in the $35-40MM range, an offer he wisely turned down, eventually securing a $56MM guarantee from the Rangers. The Rockies curiously declined to make him a qualifying offer, meaning they received no compensation for his departure, making the lack of deadline deal all the more confounding. In Story’s case, though he hung around free agency past the lockout, it never seemed like there were much interest in bringing him back to Colorado. He eventually signed with the Red Sox, with the Rockies at least receiving a draft pick due to his rejection of the qualifying offer.

The period between the end of the season and the lockout was fairly quiet for the Rockies, at least in terms of new additions. In addition to the aforementioned extensions, they also re-signed Jhoulys Chacin in November. At the end of November, just before the lockout, their interest in Kris Bryant was first reported. But at the time, that seemed to be something of a pipe dream, as he was predicted to sign a contract in the range of $160MM, while the Rockies had never given a free agent more than the $70MM they gave to Ian Desmond. The lockout came with Bryant still unsigned and the Rockies still without the power bat they desired.

During the lockout, with transactions frozen, the club focused on in-house matters, extending manager Bud Black’s contract by another year. He was set to enter a lame-duck season in 2022 but now has a bit of extra security. As for other internal matters, the club fired director of research and development Scott Van Lenten, whom they had just hired months earlier in an attempt to pay catch-up in the analytics game. Though we don’t know exactly what the “major disagreements” were that led to the firing, it’s fair to wonder if this is another example of the club’s commitment to certain approaches actually becoming an alienating stubbornness.

Although teams were forbidden from contacting players and agents during the lockout, word trickled out that the Rockies had some interest in Kyle Schwarber and Michael Conforto as alternate routes to adding some power to their outfield mix. However, once the lockout ended and communications re-opened, it became clear that Colorado’s interest in Conforto was mild, and Schwarber quickly signed with the Phillies.

The Rockies’ first significant addition in the post-lockout period was adding Jose Iglesias, a low-cost move designed to fill the shortstop vacancy left by Story. That was followed by yet another low-cost move, adding Chad Kuhl to take Gray’s rotation spot. Alex Colome was then added to the bullpen mix. Those three additions combined for just a $12.1MM increase to the club’s payroll.

The big move was still to come, as reports started emerging that the club was aggressively pursuing Bryant. Although they reportedly considered other options like Joc Pederson, Jorge Soler and Corey Dickerson, their desire for Bryant never wavered and they eventually landed him on a seven-year, $182MM contract, more than doubling their Desmond deal. The Rockies finally had the big slugger and face-of-the-franchise superstar they desired, taking the mantle previously held by Arenado and Story.

That would certainly be the biggest move of their offseason, though they managed to add a bit more pop to the outfield by acquiring Randal Grichuk from the Blue Jays, sacrificing the speed and contact profile of Raimel Tapia, who went to Toronto. The club’s payroll is currently projected at $134MM, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource, just a bit shy of their franchise record of $145MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

In the end, a lot of the core is being carried over. Gray, Story and Tapia are out. Bryant, Grichuk, Iglesias, Kuhl and Colome are in. Whether that latter group marks a significant improvement over the former is a matter of debate. (For what it’s worth, Gray, Story and Tapia produced 6.2 fWAR last year, while the latter group was worth 5.0.) As much as Bryant makes sense for the team, he alone can’t turn a 74-win team into a 94-win one. There isn’t likely to be much help coming from the farm either, as each of FanGraphs, MLB Pipeline, Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus have just one Colorado farmhand on their top prospect lists: 20-year-old Zac Veen, who has only played A-ball in his lone season in the professional ranks.

In order for the Rockies to perform better than they have in the past three years and get back to postseason contention, they will need that core to step forward. Ryan McMahon, Brendan Rodgers, Garrett Hampson, Connor Joe, Sam Hilliard, Kyle Freeland, and Austin Gomber are the players who will have to justify the team’s faith and prove they’re capable of either greater production or consistency than they’ve shown so far.

While it may be hard to see the club’s plan at times, it’s at least admirable that they believe they can win and are acting like it. Though that may seem more like a baseline expectation than something to boast about, it’s certainly not something that can be said of every team these days.

Offseason In Review: Chicago Cubs

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The Cubs made two big signings and added a ton of veterans on short-term deals as they attempt to move past their 2016 championship core.

Major League Signings

Options Exercised

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

The Cubs’ first order of business during the 2021-22 offseason was hiring a general manager, after leaving the position under president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer open for nearly a year.  Hawkins had spent 14 years in Cleveland, regarding which Hoyer noted, “certainly their ability to develop pitching has been remarkable.”  Finding pitching late in the draft or cheaply in the marketplace and getting good Major League results had not been a strong suit of the Theo Epstein/Jed Hoyer regime.

In addition to improving the pipeline, the Cubs needed pitching to get through the 2022 season, which Hoyer called his “top priority” in early October.  Hoyer spoke about being “active” in free agency, a word echoed by owner Tom Ricketts in a letter to fans.  Hoyer and Ricketts made sure to couch their comments with words like “intelligent” and “thoughtful,” which I took to mean the Cubs would be out on the top dozen or so free agents given a desire to avoid long-term commitments.

After following the Hawkins hire with the additions of Ehsan Bokhari as assistant GM and Greg Brown as hitting coach, the Cubs kicked off their active offseason by claiming veteran lefty Wade Miley off waivers from the cost-cutting Reds.  Given the Cubs’ extremely thin starting rotation at the time behind Kyle Hendricks, snagging Miley off a 3.37 ERA/163 inning campaign without giving up any players was an easy win – even if he doesn’t meet the desire for someone with strikeout ability.  It was the equivalent of an early free agent signing, at a commitment probably a bit lower than what the market would have required.  An injury development has dampened enthusiasm for the Miley claim, as the 35-year-old southpaw is experiencing elbow inflammation that will keep him out until at least late April.

As the lockout approached in late November, the Cubs reportedly made an offer to free agent lefty Steven Matz.  According to Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic, “The Cubs were heavily involved with Matz, but were unwilling to go to four years,” as the Cardinals ultimately did.  Instead, the Cubs were able to lure Marcus Stroman with a three-year, $71MM offer that was very different from MLBTR’s projected five years and $110MM.  Apparently the pre-lockout market wasn’t offering Stroman four or five years at an AAV he liked, and the Cubs pounced.

The Stroman signing marked the Cubs’ biggest free agent expenditure since they signed Yu Darvish nearly four years earlier.  Like Miley, Stroman still didn’t match Hoyer’s goal of adding strikeout pitchers to the rotation, as Stroman’s success has been built on groundballs and good control.  It was another case of the Cubs adapting to what the market gave them while avoiding long-term commitments, and Stroman should give the team much-needed above-average innings.  They didn’t have to commit to his age 34 and 35 seasons, as the Blue Jays did with Kevin Gausman, or forfeit their second-highest draft pick as they would have with Robbie Ray.

The Cubs also added a pair of position players prior to the lockout, signing catcher Yan Gomes and corner outfielder Clint Frazier.  Gomes, perhaps the best catcher in a weak free agent market at the position, will serve as Willson Contreras insurance in multiple ways.  For as long as the two are together, Gomes will lighten the load on Contreras, who caught two-thirds of the Cubs’ innings behind the plate in 2021 despite missing more than three weeks with a knee sprain.  Gomes also ensures the Cubs will have a capable backstop in the event they trade Contreras between now and the August 2nd deadline.

The Cubs seem to have little desire in extending Contreras, one of the last remaining links to the 2016 championship club.  Thus far, they haven’t even been able to agree on his 2022 salary, and they’re headed toward a midseason hearing over the $1.25MM gap.  Contreras’ free agency will begin with his age-31 season, and he figures to seek at least a four-year deal.  The Cubs have one well-regarded catching prospect in Miguel Amaya.  He underwent Tommy John surgery in November after playing only 23 games in 2021, so Gomes is necessary to bridge the gap.

Frazier is a lottery ticket that makes tons of sense for the Cubs.  The 27-year-old former fifth overall pick cost just $1.5MM, and if he has any measure of success the Cubs can control him through 2024 as an arbitration eligible player.  Frazier hit well in the brief 2020 season, but he’s also dealt with the effects of multiple concussions.  The Cubs’ outfield should offer ample opportunity for Frazier to re-establish himself.

The Cubs’ first post-lockout move was a contract extension for manager David Ross.  After that, it was back to the free agent market.  While fans had visions of Carlos Correa, to whom the Cubs were at least loosely connected, they instead signed Andrelton Simmons to a modest one-year deal.  The 32-year-old defensive wizard will start the season on the IL due to a sore shoulder, putting Nico Hoerner into the starting role.

As for Correa?  His three-year, $105.3MM deal with the Twins, which includes opt-outs after each season, reportedly came together with the Twins in the span of 14 hours, initiated by agent Scott Boras.  Boras certainly spoke to other clubs during that frenzied late-March period.  Aside from the draft pick forfeiture, Correa’s contract generally fit with the Cubs’ new m.o., but it’s unknown whether they were in the mix late.  As of now, shortstop is an unsettled position for the Cubs for the next several years.

I had mentioned in November that free agent right fielder Seiya Suzuki, one of the best players in Japan and only 27 years old, made sense for the Cubs.  Hoyer agreed, winning the bidding with an aggressive five-year, $85MM contract plus a $14.625MM posting fee.  According to MLBTR’s Steve Adams, “The most bullish opinions we’ve gotten peg Suzuki as an everyday Major League right fielder — a solid defensive player with a strong arm and enough power to hit in the middle of a big league lineup.”  This is the type of player the Cubs were sorely lacking, and if Suzuki’s power translates, fans will start to replace those Rizzo, Baez, and Bryant jerseys with Suzuki ones.

Beyond the big splashes in Stroman and Suzuki, the Cubs lived up to their word about being active in free agency.  I can’t remember another time a team brought in a dozen free agents on Major League contracts, and the number grows to 14 once you add Miley and Jesse Chavez, whose contract has already been selected.  It’s a crazy number of players to add to the Major League roster in one offseason, and it speaks to the lack of MLB-ready talent the Cubs had after trading away every decent veteran last summer.

The Cubs’ approach to building a bullpen is as good as any, given the volatility of relievers and how often the larger free agent contracts go bust.  With basically no established bullpen to speak of, especially after Codi Heuer went down for Tommy John surgery, Hoyer added five free agents on one-year deals for a total of $14MM: Mychal Givens, David Robertson, Chris Martin, Daniel Norris, and Jesse Chavez.  It’s difficult to say which of these five new relievers will succeed in Chicago, but the Cubs were likely emboldened by getting excellent work out of Ryan Tepera and Andrew Chafin after signing them for a total of $3.55MM last winter.  The pair signed two-year deals for $14MM and $13MM with the Angels and Tigers, respectively, this offseason.

We thought Jonathan Villar might require a two-year deal, so the Cubs did well to grab him for one year and $6MM.  He’ll likely see time mainly at third and second base, but could also serve as the Cubs’ third-string shortstop.  Villar is a switch-hitter without much of a platoon split, and he’ll spell Patrick Wisdom, Nick Madrigal, and Hoerner.

Drew Smyly has had interesting free agent experiences in his career.  The 32-year-old southpaw has just one 2-WAR season on his resume, back in 2014.  He signed a two-year, $10MM deal with the Cubs with an eye on his 2019 season, as he spent 2018 recovering from Tommy John surgery.  The Cubs instead shipped him to Texas to save money before realizing that plan.  Smyly struggled in ’19 but still found $4MM the following offseason as one of the Giants’ pitching projects.  That went well enough that the Braves gave Smyly $11MM on the strength of 26 1/3 innings in 2020.

After middling results for Atlanta, Smyly received another $5.25MM from the Cubs and will open the season in a rotation that’s missing both Miley and Adbert Alzolay due to injuries.  The Cubs also added some rotation depth with Steven Brault, who continues to battle injuries.  The Cubs’ season-opening rotation is shaky behind Hendricks and Stroman, with Smyly, Justin Steele, and Alec Mills penciled in.  As aggressive as Hoyer was in free agency, the Cubs are still running a competitive balance tax payroll more than $60MM below the $230MM threshold, and it seems like they could have piled up more rotation depth.

The 2022 Cubs figure to be, if nothing else, a watchable club with the additions of Suzuki and Stroman and the likely summer promotion of top prospect Brennen Davis.  FanGraphs projects them for about 75 wins.  Given a 12-team playoff field, the Cubs should at least be able to hang around the periphery in a division where the Pirates are rebuilding and only the Brewers stand out.

Out Of Options 2022

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Every spring at MLBTR, we publish a list of players who are out of minor league options and, thusly, cannot be sent to the minor leagues without first clearing outright waivers. Option status is particularly relevant as teams set their rosters prior to Opening Day, given that a lack of minor league options is often a key reason a certain player will make the roster over another who had a superior spring performance (or, as with yesterday’s Blue Jays/White Sox trade, can be a contributing factor in a trade).

The following is a list of all 40-man players throughout the league with fewer than five years of service time — players with more than five years of service can refuse an optional assignment — and no minor league options remaining. We’ve included players who have signed extensions or multi-year deals, even though they’re often less likely to be optioned.

Angels

Athletics

Blue Jays

Braves

Brewers

Cardinals

Cubs

Diamondbacks

Dodgers

Giants

Guardians

Mariners

Marlins

Mets

Nationals

Orioles

Padres

Phillies

Pirates

Rangers

Rays

Red Sox

Reds

Rockies

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees

31 Players On Track For Arbitration Hearings

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201 arbitration eligible players have reached agreements with their teams on a 2022 salary, most of which occurred just prior to Tuesday’s filing deadline.

According to Jake Seiner of The Associated Press, 31 arbitration eligible players remain unsigned and are on track for hearings.  Due to the lockout, the hearings are expected to take place during the season if agreements are not reached.  The full list of unsigned players, which includes Aaron Judge, Willson Contreras, and Dansby Swanson, can be found in our tracker.  Judge, having submitted a $21MM figure against the Yankees’ $17MM submission, represents the largest gap at $4MM.

All the other gaps are less than $2MM, and the smallest is the $200K separating Lucas Giolito and the White Sox.  Yesterday, Giolito told reporters that the sides were only $50K apart prior to filing, which the righty described as “very unfortunate, disheartening.”

The Braves have five of the 31 cases, with Swanson, Adam Duvall, Luke Jackson, Max Fried, and Austin Riley.  Six of the 31 players were traded this offseason: Jesse Winker, Adam Frazier, Gary Sanchez, Chris Bassitt, and Jacob Stallings.

A look at the number of hearings by year in the last decade:

  • 2021: 8
  • 2020: 12
  • 2019: 10
  • 2018: 22
    2017: 15
  • 2016: 4
  • 2015: 14
  • 2014: 3
  • 2013: 0
  • 2012: 7

Multiyear deals are always an option, and we record those in our extension tracker.

MLB Owners Ratify CBA; Transactions Officially Unfrozen

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5:28pm: Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports (on Twitter) that the owners unanimously voted to ratify the new CBA. After 99 days, the lockout and accompanying transactions freeze have officially been lifted.

3:47pm: MLB owners are expected to ratify the new collective bargaining agreement at 6:00pm eastern/5:00pm central time tonight, according to Andy Martino of SNY.  Transactions are set to unfreeze immediately thereafter, meaning teams will again be able to sign free agents and make trades.  Upon locking out the players on December 2, MLB also instituted a transaction freeze, which ended up lasting 99 excruciating days.

We’re expecting an unprecedented level of MLB hot stove action crammed into a 28-day period, with Opening Day set for April 7.  Hundreds of free agents are still without jobs, including 20 of MLBTR’s top 50 of the offseason.  Click here to review the best remaining free agents, led by Carlos Correa, Freddie Freeman, Kris Bryant, Trevor Story, Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber, Carlos Rodon, Michael Conforto, and Seiya Suzuki.  Check out the full free agent list here.  To review which free agents signed prior to the lockout, click here.  My ballpark estimate is that around 60 free agents will sign MLB deals between now and Opening Day.  Old qualifying offer rules remain in place for this group of free agents, meaning that if new teams sign Correa, Freeman, Story, Castellanos, and Conforto, they’ll be subject to draft pick forfeiture.

Several factors will affect exactly how aggressive teams are in pursuing free agents.  One is how many executives bent the rules and communicated with agents during the lockout, potentially laying groundwork for instant agreements.

Another is the new competitive balance tax thresholds.  The base tax threshold will rise from $210MM in 2021 to $230MM this year, a 9.5% increase.  By 2026, the base tax threshold will reach $244MM.  There are three additional tax tiers beyond the base threshold at $20MM increments, the last of which is a new addition with this CBA.  In 2021, only the Dodgers and Padres exceeded the base tax threshold, but five other teams came within $3.4MM of it.  The teams that prefer to treat the base tax threshold as a soft salary cap now have an additional $20MM to play with in 2022.

It’s also worth considering the new anti-tanking measures agreed to by MLB and the players.  They’ll be instituting a draft lottery for the first six picks, and also penalties for landing near the bottom of the standings multiple years in a row (we’ll explore that fully later).  In theory, rebuilding clubs could become a little more active in the market.

An additional major CBA change that may affect free agency is the move from 10 to 12-team playoffs.  The bar for entry into the playoffs has been lowered.  That could push a fringe contender to acquire players.  On the flip side, a team projecting itself for 90+ wins may feel certain additions are now unnecessary with fewer wins required to make the playoffs.

The universal DH is also part of the mix, with bat-first free agents like Nick Castellanos, Nelson Cruz, and Jorge Soler now becoming more palatable for National League teams.

Trading was minimal prior to the lockout, so expect a burst of activity in that area as well.  MLBTR covered the 14 likeliest trade candidates, impact players with a chance to move, and 27 more regulars with a plausible chance of being traded.  The Athletics, Reds, and Mets figure to be in the thick of many trade discussions.  Again, it’s possible executives were conducting covert trade talks during the lockout, but we don’t know for sure.  What we do know: we’re excited to switch from lockout coverage to free agency and trades.  Thanks for hanging in there with us.

Canceled Regular Season Games Raise The Possibility For A Dispute Regarding Service Time

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Major League service time is awarded not based on games spent on a big league roster but rather by total days spent on the Major League roster (or injured list). The Major League Baseball season is 186 days long and a “full year” of service time is defined as 172 days.

A full year of service can be accrued over multiple seasons, of course. A player called up with 72 days left in the regular season, for instance, would accrue 72 days of service time in the current season and need 100 the following year to get across that one-year threshold. Assuming said player spent that entire second season on the roster, he’d have a year and 72 days of service time. For written purposes, service time is displayed as: [years].[days]. So, the player in this example would have 1.072 years of service following that second season. Two more full years of service, and he’s at 3.072 and into arbitration by virtue of crossing three years. Three more years on top of that, and he’s at 6.072 and eligible for free agency by virtue of accruing more than six years of service time.

With that quick and admittedly rudimentary crash course for the uninitiated out of the way, I thought it would be pertinent to take a look at how the recent cancellation of Opening Day by commissioner Rob Manfred could potentially impact players from a service-time vantage point — specifically those who could, at least in theory, stand to see their free agency delayed by a season.

At present, the league has only canceled the season’s first two series. Theoretically, if MLB and the MLBPA were to agree to a new deal this weekend and Opening Day were pushed back only a week — a pipe dream, I realize, but humor me for the purposes of this example — the season could technically still contain 179 days. Players could, then, receive a full year of service even in the absence of a week’s worth of games being wiped from existence.

What if, however, we reach the point where anything more than two weeks of games are canceled? The moment 15 or more days are nixed, there are 171 days on the schedule — which is technically not enough for any player to accrue a full year of service in 2022 alone. For players like the hypothetical one I described in the first couple sentences, that might not be a huge deal. My 1.072 player would only need 100 days of service this season, and so long as he got those 100 days, he’d cross into the two-plus service bracket and his timeline to free agency would remain unchanged. However, a player entering the season with exactly three years of service time (or two years, one year, etc.) would suddenly be looking at a calendar that literally doesn’t have enough days on it to keep their free-agent trajectories on track. Since arbitration is also based off service time, there’d be major implications on that front as well.

It’s for this reason that the union is widely expected to fight tooth-and-nail for full service time to be awarded even in spite of missed games/missed calendar days. The MLBPA will argue that it was the league who implemented the lockout and the league who canceled games early in the season. An attempt to withhold service time would quite likely be perceived by the players as something so damaging that they’d be willing to sit out indefinitely. That service time is worth hundreds of millions of dollars to the players.

The union is also expected to push for full pay rather than prorated salaries on the season, although it’s quite arguably the service time that’s more valuable, given its future implications. The two sides will butt heads over these issues, to be sure. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes tweets that he expects the eventual compromise to be one that sees the players still receive full service time but not be paid for any missed days. As Tim points out, there’s precedent for both of these in the past.

At the moment, there’s a fair bit of talk about the possibility that all of April is lost to the current lockout. Much of that stems from Ken Rosenthal’s recent report at The Athletic, wherein he revealed that most television contracts don’t call for teams to issue rebates to their broadcast partners until “around 25 games” are missed. This has led to several players, Willson Contreras and Jason Heyward among them, accusing the league of deliberately seeking a reason to wipe April games from the schedule. April attendance is generally poor relative to the rest of the season, and the allegations put forth by the players accuse ownership of effectively only taking on the operating costs of five-sixths of a season while still receiving a full season’s worth of television revenue.

Feel free to discuss that theory all you like in the comments, but I’m setting it aside because the specifics of why we might miss the month of April are irrelevant for the purposes of this exercise. What matters here is which players would be most harmed by the possibility of April being wiped from the schedule and MLB subsequently trying to withhold their service. It’s quite unlikely that the league would succeed in these efforts, to be clear, but the hypothetical is still worth investigating.

Opening Day had been slated for March 31 (one day of service), and there are another 30 in April, of course. Striking April from the record would drop the season to 155 calendar days. Any player with even 17 extra days of service toward another year (i.e. 1.o17, 2.017, etc.) would be able to move their service time up a year. Any player with 16 or fewer toward another year (i.e. 1.016, 2.016, etc.) would be out of luck. MLBTR has obtained a full record of official service time for every current Major Leaguer, which is the source for the service-time data used in this exercise.

First, a few caveats. As this pertains mostly to players who have not yet accumulated six total years of service (i.e. reached free agency) or signed a long-term contract that renders such service time considerations largely moot (e.g. Fernando Tatis Jr.), I’ve excluded those players. I’ve also, admittedly subjectively, chosen players who have a decent chance to last the whole season on a big league roster.

All that said, let’s take a look at each service bracket and who’d technically come up short. As you might expect, there are some rather notable names:

Five-plus years of service time: Trey Mancini, Manuel Margot, Grant Dayton
Four-plus: Frankie Montas, Jack Flaherty, Ryan McMahon, Reynaldo Lopez, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Jordan Hicks, Brad Keller, Shohei Ohtani
Three-plus: Lucas Luetge, Austin Adams, Lucas Sims, Tyler Kinley, Brett Phillips, Adrian Houser, John Means, Kyle Higashioka, Josh James, Rowdy Tellez, Dylan Moore, Chris Paddack, Nick Anderson, Pete Alonso
Two-plus: Jorge Alcala, Lane Thomas, Nico Hoerner, Adrian Morejon, Jared Walsh, Aristides Aquino, Kyle Finnegan, Jorge Mateo, JT Brubaker, Jake Cronenworth, Anthony Misiewicz, Brady Singer, Codi Heuer, Cristian Javier, David Peterson, Tejay Antone
One-plus: James Kaprielian, Chas McCormick, Akil Baddoo, Andrew Vaughn, Garrett Whitlock, Jake Brentz, Jonathan India

Put another way, if the league were to somehow succeed in not only canceling the first month of the season but also withholding service time, you’d see the likes of Shohei Ohtani, Pete Alonso, Trey Mancini, Manuel Margot, Jack Flaherty, Frankie Montas, Ryan McMahon, etc. all watch their gateways to free agency be delayed by a full year. The huge loss of earning power that comes with getting a year older — to say nothing of the potential for injury and/or decline — is where the aforementioned “hundreds of millions of dollars” in value to the Players Association that I referenced stems. And, if we see a portion of May, June, etc. canceled, further names will be added to this list.

Again, this is an exercise in hypotheticals, and I can’t imagine a scenario where the players willingly shrug and accept the loss of service time for days that were lost to a league-implemented lockout. But the two sides are absolutely going to negotiate over this, perhaps in heated fashion. If you find yourself asking “what’s the big deal” regarding the potential for missed service time — the “big deal” is another year that the likes of Ohtani, Alonso, Flaherty, etc. are under club control via arbitration rather than having a chance to hit the free-agent market.

An Overlooked Lefty Slugger In Free Agency

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Much of fans’ time during the lockout is spent playing armchair general manager and looking at ways to address their teams’ perceived needs — whether it be blockbuster trades, free-agent mega-deals, or under-the-radar value plays. There’s probably more focus on those first two, but we’ve already taken pretty lengthy looks at the top free agents and the top trade candidates who could change hands throughout the offseason here at MLBTR. As such, my own focus has turned to some of the lesser-heralded free agents who probably deserve a bit more love than they’ve gotten to this point in the winter. In the case of Brad Miller, his lack of appreciation probably pre-dates the current offseason.

Brad Miller | Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Over the past three years, Miller has played on a one-year, $1MM deal in Cleveland, a one-year, $2.5MM deal in St. Louis and a one-year, $3.5MM deal in Philadelphia. Those three teams have guaranteed a combined $7MM to Miller and received 40 home runs through 718 plate appearances, with an overall batting line of .236/.331/.480. Obviously, the batting average isn’t ideal, but the leaguewide average during that time is .248 (or .251 excluding pitchers). Miller hasn’t been that much below par in terms of his batting average, and he’s above average in terms of on-base percentage and, particularly, in his power output.

This isn’t to say Miller should be lumped into the mix of most appealing free-agent bats available. He’ll play the coming season at age 32, making him older than the market’s high-profile names, and his skill set has obvious flaws. We’ll get those out of the way first.

Miller’s lefty bat has been a nonfactor against southpaw pitchers, evidenced by a .168/.230/.336 output over the past three seasons. He’s punched out in nearly 38% of his plate appearances when facing same-handed opponents. It’s not a new phenomenon, as Miller’s career numbers indicate, but his struggles against lefties have increased in recent years, even as his output against righties has improved.

Defensively, Miller is something of a man without a position. His days as a shortstop early in his big league career never yielded strong ratings from metrics like Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating. More rudimentary marks like fielding percentage and his error totals agreed that Miller probably wasn’t well-suited as an everyday shortstop. That’s all the more true as he trends toward his mid-30s. Miller has seen plenty of action at first base, second base, third base and in the outfield corners over the past few seasons; his best statistical showings in those relatively small samples have come at second base and in left field. He’s not a premium defender anywhere, but Miller can capably handle those two spots and fill in as needed around the diamond.

Setting aside those noted deficiencies, there’s one thing thing Miller also does quite well: mash right-handed pitching. Over the past three years, Miller has hit .251/.352/.512 against right-handed pitchers — good for a 127 wRC+ that ranks 47th among the 321 hitters who’ve tallied at least 400 plate appearances (that is to say, he’s been about 27% better than the league-average hitter). At least against right-handed pitching, that wRC+ puts him alongside heavy-hitting names like Jose Ramirez (126), Carlos Correa (126) and Marcus Semien (129). Miller obviously isn’t as good overall as anyone in that trio, and it’s not realistic to shield him from left-handed opponents entirely over the course of a season. Nevertheless, the damage he offers against right-handed pitching is real.

The productivity when holding the platoon advantage doesn’t appear fluky in nature, either. Miller has walked in 12.9% of his plate appearances against a more defensible 26.3% strikeout rate. His .293 average on balls in play doesn’t scream for regression. A quarter of his fly-balls against righties have left the yard, which is a strong mark — 19th among that previous subset of 321 hitters, right alongside George Springer and Nelson Cruz — but not so lofty that one should expect it to come crashing back down in a major way.

Moreover, the general quality of Miller’s contact is excellent. His 2021 percentile ranks in average exit velocity (91st), max exit velocity (91st), hard-hit rate (84th) and barrel rate (80th) all stand out. He’s also above average in terms of sprint speed (62nd percentile) and in his ability to lay off pitches outside the strike zone (71st percentile both in 2021 and in 2020). Miller’s contact rate on pitches in the zone is a good bit shy of the league average (about five percentage points), but he’s not going to get himself out too often by flailing at pitches off the plate.

Miller’s flaws are easy to see, and again, the point of this certainly isn’t to suggest he will or should be paid along the same lines as Kyle Schwarber, who just put up a fireworks display for the ages when healthy in 2021. But Miller’s .251/.352/.512 slash against righties over the past three seasons is a whole lot closer to Schwarber’s .247/.348/.555 slash against righties in that same time than their eventual price tags will suggest, and Miller has actually been a much better hitter against righties than free agents like Joc Pederson and Eddie Rosario in recent seasons. Fans looking for left-handed bats might not have Miller high on their wishlist, but when used properly, his production is closer to some of the bigger names than most would expect. Whether the market will treat him as such this time around is yet to be determined, but the forthcoming addition of a universal designated hitter won’t hurt his stock.

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