Offseason Outlook: Colorado Rockies
The Rockies perpetual effort at contention came up short this year. Colorado will finish below .500 for a fourth consecutive season, and they’re likely headed for a last place finish in the NL West. With no appetite for a rebuild, they’ll make another run at competing this offseason. There are a lot of holes to fill and a sizable number of financial commitments on the books. General manager Bill Schmidt and his staff will have their work cut out for them yet again.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Kris Bryant, LF: $164MM through 2028
- Ryan McMahon, 3B: $65MM through 2027
- Kyle Freeland, LHP: $57.5MM through 2026 (deal includes 2027 vesting option)
- Antonio Senzatela, RHP: $43.25MM through 2026 (deal includes 2027 club option)
- Daniel Bard, RHP: $19MM through 2024
- Germán Márquez, RHP: $17.5MM through 2023 (including buyout of 2024 club option)
- Elias Díaz, C: $11.5MM through 2024
- C.J. Cron, 1B: $7.5MM through 2023
- Randal Grichuk, RF: $5MM through 2023 (not including $4.33MM of salary to be paid by Blue Jays)
Option Decisions
- Charlie Blackmon, DH: $15MM player option, no buyout
- Scott Oberg, RHP: $8MM club option, no buyout
Additional Financial Commitments
Would owe Cardinals $5MM as part of the Nolan Arenado trade if he foregoes opt-out opportunity
Total 2023 commitments (if Blackmon exercises option and Arenado doesn’t opt out): $117.25MM
Total future commitments (if Arenado doesn’t opt out): $389.25MM
Arbitration-Eligible Players
- Dinelson Lamet
- Garrett Hampson
- Brendan Rodgers
- Austin Gomber
- Ty Blach
- Tyler Kinley
- Peter Lambert
- Non-tender candidates: Lamet, Hampson, Blach, Lambert
Free Agents
Few organizations value continuity as much as the Rockies. Even as they’re headed for a fourth straight subpar season, they’ve worked to keep the core of their roster intact. Last offseason saw a spate of extensions, with Elias Díaz, Ryan McMahon, Antonio Senzatela, C.J. Cron and, shortly after Opening Day, Kyle Freeland inked to multi-year deals. The Rox continued the pattern at the trade deadline even as it had become clear they weren’t postseason bound. Closer Daniel Bard would’ve been a slam-dunk trade candidate on most teams as he was headed towards free agency, but Colorado tacked on two years and $19MM to keep him in Denver through 2024.
The Rockies didn’t trade away anyone this summer, reinforcing their longstanding resistance to a major overhaul. It came as little surprise when general manager Bill Schmidt announced over the weekend the club had no plans to make a change atop the dugout, either. Manager Bud Black will return for a seventh season at the helm, and he’ll likely be tasked with getting better results from a roster than looks a lot like the 2022 iteration.
Colorado isn’t facing many noteworthy free agent departures. Fifth starter Chad Kuhl signed a $3MM deal last offseason after spending his career with the Pirates. That looked like a bargain after a strong first half, but he’s been crushed to the tune of an 8.42 ERA while allowing opponents to hit .318/.392/.636 since the All-Star Break. Kuhl didn’t lose any velocity, but his sinker has been hit hard in recent months. His season line is up to a career-worst 5.45 ERA with a below-average 18.1% strikeout rate over 26 starts.
The Rockies didn’t trade Kuhl this summer, ostensibly because there was mutual interest in a contract extension. Whether the team is still anxious to keep him around after his second-half performance is unclear, but they should be able to do so rather affordably if they’d like. Even if they bring Kuhl back, then adding at least another lower-cost starter in the Zach Davies mold feels like a must. Midseason signee José Ureña hasn’t pitched well and is headed back to free agency. Depth starter Ryan Feltner has an ERA pushing 6.00, while former second-round pick Peter Lambert has spent most of the season on the minor league injured list and looks like a non-tender candidate.
One can argue for the Rockies to pursue a more impactful rotation pickup than either of Kuhl or Davies. Colorado’s rotation ranks 29th in the majors in both ERA (5.29) and strikeout rate (17.1%) with a week remaining in the season. Spending half their games at Coors Field doesn’t do the Rockies’ staff any favors, but even park-adjusted metrics like ERA-minus and SIERA have been underwhelmed by the results. Six of Colorado’s seven starters have an ERA north of 5.00, while Freeland leads the club with a 4.63 mark.
In believing themselves to be contenders, the Rockies envisioned the rotation as the lifeblood of the club. They had seen varying levels of success from Germán Márquez, Freeland and Senzatela in prior seasons, and they’ve signed all three to long-term extensions. Márquez, in particular, looked like a high-quality hurler between 2018-21, but he’s had a nightmare 2022 season. Over 30 starts, he has a 5.12 ERA and has seen his strikeout (18.8%) and swinging strike (10.1%) rates fall precipitously from their above-average levels of seasons past. Márquez still throws hard and has an excellent curveball, but his slider has lost a bit of effectiveness while both his four-seam and sinking fastballs have been hit hard.
Getting Márquez back on track this offseason will be a top priority for Black and pitching coach Darryl Scott. He’s certain to get another crack in the rotation alongside Freeland. Senzatela will probably be back in the mix at some point, but he’s unlikely to be ready for Opening Day after tearing the ACL in his left knee last month. That leaves as many as three rotation spots up for grabs, at least to start the year.
The club had hoped Austin Gomber could plug one of those holes, but the key piece of the Nolan Arenado trade struggled to a 5.85 ERA through 16 starts before being moved to the bullpen in July. He’s pitched a little better as a long reliever but not dramatically so. Gomber may get another chance to compete for a rotation spot come Spring Training, but it’s hard to bank on him. Former first-rounder Ryan Rolison could get an opportunity as well, but he’s yet to make his major league debut and missed most of this season after undergoing shoulder surgery in early June.
It’s one of the thinner rotation outlooks in the majors, but the Rockies may not have a ton of room to add notable upgrades from the outside. Colorado will have roughly $112MM in player payroll committed to their 2023 roster once Charlie Blackmon exercises his $15MM player option (which is an inevitability). That’s before accounting for potential additional future payments to the Cardinals as part of the Arenado swap. As the Associated Press reported in April 2021, the Rox will owe St. Louis an additional $5MM annually through 2025 if Arenado declines to opt out of his contract at the end of the season. There’s a chance the Rockies are on the hook for around $117MM before getting to their arbitration class or considering any outside additions.
The franchise-record payroll is a hair north of $145MM, which they reached back in 2019, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. It seems likely they’ll set a new franchise mark next season. That’s particularly true if they tender an arbitration contract to Dinelson Lamet, whom they claimed off waivers from the Brewers in early August. Lamet had struggled with injuries and underperformance his past couple seasons as a Padre, but he’s pitched to a 3.00 ERA with a hefty 32.5% strikeout rate in 18 innings of relief for Colorado. The right-hander is making $4.775MM this season and would be due a salary north of $5MM in 2023 if tendered a contract.
Those payroll limitations could lead Colorado to look towards the trade market in search of more affordable starting pitching. The Rockies farm system isn’t especially robust, particularly on the pitching side, but Colorado has seen the emergence of a few lower-level position players. Colorado has four of the top 53 prospects on Baseball America’s most recent Top 100 update. Their top prospect, shortstop Ezequiel Tovar, likely isn’t going anywhere now that he’s in the majors. Corner outfielder Zac Veen, catcher Drew Romo and shortstop Adael Amador are among the better minor league talents in the sport, though, and lower level hitters like Warming Bernabel, Yanquiel Fernandez and recent first-rounder Benny Montgomery have all had solid seasons. Dealing from that group to add an arbitration-eligible or pre-arb starter to the mix isn’t out of the question.
Aside from any external pickups, Lamet could be an option to battle Rolison, Gomber and Feltner for jobs in the rotation. It may be tempting to keep Lamet in the bullpen, where he’s been successful of late. Colorado will need a few quality arms to bridge the gap to Bard in the ninth inning. Among Rockies relievers with 15+ innings, the only four with a sub-4.00 ERA this season are Bard, Lamet, Carlos Estévez and Tyler Kinley. Estévez is set to hit free agency, while Kinley underwent elbow surgery this summer and might not return before the All-Star Break.
Left-hander Lucas Gilbreath has shown an intriguing enough combination of strikeouts and grounders to warrant a spot in next year’s bullpen, but there’s opportunity here as well. Estévez’s intriguing power arsenal makes him a candidate for a multi-year deal that might price out of Colorado’s range, given the various other holes on the roster. The Rox will probably bring in a veteran middle reliever or two, likely a lower-cost type like their $4.1MM flier on Alex Colomé last winter. Colomé himself will be a free agent and seems unlikely to return after a tough year.
Just as the Rockies are committed to bounceback years from a good chunk of their starting rotation, they’ll have to hope for better from many on the position player side. No player is more integral to the lineup than Kris Bryant, of course. Signed to a seven-year, $182MM free-agent deal last offseason, Bryant only appeared in 42 games because of a host of injuries. None was more impactful than the plantar fasciitis in his right foot that ended his season. The former MVP did hit well when healthy enough to take the field (.306/.376/.475). A full season from Bryant is critical if the Rox are to have any chance of competing, as he was brought in to serve as the lineup anchor the club lost when Arenado and Trevor Story departed.
Bryant will be back in left field, where he was supposed to see the bulk of playing time this year. Right field, Blackmon’s primary home for the past few seasons, is more of a question mark. Blackmon will be back for another year on the player option, but he’s seen more action at designated hitter than in the outfield in his age-35 campaign and will undergo knee surgery next week to repair a torn meniscus. He’ll presumably continue to see a bit of right field work, but the Rockies could also look outside the organization for help.
Randal Grichuk, acquired from the Blue Jays for Raimel Tapia just before Opening Day, is under contract for one more year but didn’t play particularly well during his debut campaign with the team. He’s in the center field mix but could also play right field regularly if the Rockies wanted to give the speedy Yonathan Daza a chance in center. Daza makes a ton of contact and hits for high batting averages, but his power impact is limited enough he’s better suited for fourth outfield work. Younger players like Elehuris Montero, Michael Toglia and Sean Bouchard could play their way into DH reps if the Rockies eschew an outfield addition and are comfortable plugging Blackmon back in right field regularly. Bouchard had the least prospect hype of that trio coming through the minors, but he’s the only one who has impressed in his limited big league work this year.
If Colorado were to look to free agency, there are a few mid-tier corner outfielders from which to choose. Adam Duvall and Joey Gallo are buy-low types whose huge power would make them interesting fits in Coors Field. Tyler Naquin has hit at a slightly above-average level for the second straight season. The Padres are sure to buy out Wil Myers, who wouldn’t be especially expensive.
The infield mix looks to be the most straightforward area of the roster. Cron has tailed off in the second half after an excellent start to the year, but he’s under contract for another season and should return as the primary first baseman. Former top prospect Brendan Rodgers has been up-and-down offensively as a major leaguer, but he’ll probably get another opportunity at second base. McMahon is the best player on the infield and will be back at the hot corner, while Tovar should be ready to step in at shortstop.
Colorado signed José Iglesias as a stopgap shortstop for the 2022 season. Iglesias had a fine year but will hit free agency this winter, and Colorado figures to move on and turn things over to the 21-year-old Tovar before long. Regarded by scouts as a plus defender, Tovar skyrocketed up prospect rankings after hitting .318/.386/.545 with 13 home runs and 17 stolen bases through 295 plate appearances at Double-A Hartford. He has almost no Triple-A experience, but Colorado brought him up for his MLB debut last week.
Carrying Tovar on next season’s Opening Day roster could have the added bonus of gaining the Rockies some extra draft capital down the line if he hits the ground running. Under the new collective bargaining agreement, players with less than 60 days of service who appear among two preseason Top 100 lists at Baseball America, ESPN or MLB Pipeline can net their team a bonus amateur draft choice based on their early-career finishes in awards voting, so long as their club carries them on the MLB roster for a full service year. Tovar seems certain to qualify as a top prospect this winter, so there’s a bit of additional incentive to have him play regularly from the outset.
If the Rockies did want Tovar to get some run in Triple-A, they could sign someone like Elvis Andrus as a temporary shortstop option. When Tovar is ready for everyday reps, that player could kick to the bench and upgrade the infield depth over Garrett Hampson, who might be non-tendered this winter.
Behind the plate, the Rockies have relied upon a combination of Díaz and Brian Serven. Neither has played well enough the team should be satisfied running it back with that duo, but the Rox’s surprising decision to sign Díaz to a three-year extension last fall means he’s still due $11.5MM through 2024. Much of this winter’s free agent catching class is coming off down years, with Willson Contreras handily topping the market. It’d be a surprise to see the Rockies go to the level it’d take to bring in Contreras, unless owner Dick Monfort is prepared to shatter the organization’s previous spending levels. They could consider a run at a second-tier option like Christian Vázquez while relegating Díaz to the bench, even if doing so not long after signing the latter to an extension isn’t the outcome they had in mind. As with much of the roster, there’s room on paper for an addition, but budgetary limitations could lead the Rox to stick with an underperforming in-house option.
The Rockies are locked in to this core, and they’re clearly still of the belief the group can salvage better results. In Colorado’s defense, their visions of a Bryant-anchored lineup never got a chance to come to fruition this season. Even an MVP-caliber season from Bryant wouldn’t have gotten this team close to the postseason, but things wouldn’t have looked quite so bleak had he’d stayed healthy. Of course, Bryant’s durability (or lack thereof) was one of the primary red flags against him in free agency to begin with, and he’s now played in just 66% of his teams’ possible games dating back to 2018.
Most of the players in whom the club invested last year didn’t play up to the team’s expectations. They’ll need the bulk of that group to bounce back, since the Rockies have invested heavily enough in the roster there’s not likely to be a ton of room to supplement from the outside. Modest additions in the rotation, bullpen, outfield and behind the dish are all viable, but it’s unlikely they’ll make a splash at the top of the free agent market for a second consecutive winter. So much would need to break right it’s hard to envision the Rockies competing next season, but they’ve got little recourse but to hope for more from their top starters and last year’s big free agent addition.
Previewing The 2022-23 Free Agent Class: Second Basemen
With the offseason drawing nearer, MLBTR will be breaking down the free-agent class on a position-by-position basis. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco already profiled this winter’s crop of catchers and first basemen. You can check out the full list of this offseason’s free agents here, but today we’ll take a deeper look at the options for teams in need of help at second base next. It’s worth noting that there are star shortstops (e.g. Xander Bogaerts, Trea Turner) who could technically be pursued as a second base option for a team that already has an entrenched shortstop, but we’ll save that group for the shortstop preview.
Top of the Class
- Jean Segura (33 years old next season)
The Phillies hold a $17MM club option on Segura, so he could technically go in the “2023 Options” section later in this preview. However, even though Segura is a good player who’s had a solid season, it’s likelier that the Phils pay the option’s $1MM buyout than pick up that hefty salary. Segura has ample experience at shortstop and has played some third base as well, but he’s been a strict second baseman in Philly recently and other teams likely view him similarly. The open market hasn’t been kind to non-star, second-base-only players like Segura in recent years, even when they’re coming off respectable seasons.
That’s absolutely the case here, as Segura has slashed .273/.335/.393 — good for a 106 wRC+ (suggesting he’s been six percent better than the league-average hitter). Segura is a tough strikeout but doesn’t walk much and has slowly seen his power dwindle to below-average levels. He generally has solid but unspectacular grades for his glovework at second base. He’ll be 33 next spring.
At his best, Segura does a little bit of everything — hitting for power, hitting for average, swiping some bases, playing solid defense — but doesn’t necessarily excel in any one area. It’d be a surprise if he got more than two years in free agency, and there are free-agent second basemen with higher ceilings but far less recent track record. If you want the safest bet to be a solid regular at the position, Segura is the guy.
- Brandon Drury (30)
As is often the case, we’re looking at a pretty thin crop of established second basemen on the market this year’s market. That’s good news for Drury, who parlayed a minor league deal with the Reds into a standout free-agent platform. Drury hit .274/.335/.520 and clubbed 21 home runs with the Reds before a deadline trade shipped him to San Diego. He hasn’t been nearly as good with the Friars (.227/.270/.454) but is still hitting for power. On the whole, Drury has a .261/.317/.501 slash this season — about 23% better than the average hitter by measure of wRC+.
Defensively, Drury embodies the “jack of all trades, master of none” trope, but second base has historically been his best position. He’s drawn average marks there throughout his career and again in 2022. The 30-year-old righty has feasted on left-handed pitching but mostly just held his own against right-handers. Drury hit well in a tiny sample of 88 plate appearances with the 2021 Mets but was a non-factor with the Yankees and Blue Jays from 2018-20, batting a combined .205/.254/.346 in the rough equivalent of a full season of playing time (167 games, 582 plate appearances).
Drury will get a big league deal this winter. The questions are whether his Cincinnati contributions are overshadowed by his San Diego struggles, whether he’ll get a look as a utility option or as a player at one primary position, and whether there’s enough interest to generate a multi-year offer.
Veterans Coming Off Down Years
- Robinson Cano (40)
Cano sat out the entire 2021 season serving a 162-game suspension for his second failed PED test and was released by three different teams in 2022 — the final season of the 10-year, $240MM contract he originally signed with Seattle. Cano hit just .150/.183/.190 in 104 Major League plate appearances this season and might not get another MLB chance at this point.
- Adam Frazier (31)
One of the Padres’ marquee acquisitions at the 2021 trade deadline, Frazier fell into a deep slump the moment he was traded from Pittsburgh to San Diego. He was flipped to the Mariners in a cost-saving move last offseason and hasn’t rediscovered his Pittsburgh form with what’s now his third team. Frazier’s season in Seattle has been the worst full season of his big league career. He’s still been a solid defender between second base and the outfield corners, but he’s hitting just .235/.299/.308 in 579 plate appearances. Since leaving the Pirates, Frazier has a .243/.307/.315 slash in 790 plate appearances; he batted .283/.346/.420 in parts of six seasons with Pittsburgh.
- Cesar Hernandez (33)
Long a steady regular at second base, Hernandez has played out his free-agent years on a series of one-year deals and might have reached the end of his time as an everyday player in Washington. After swatting a career-high 21 homers last year, the switch-hitter has just one long ball in 2022. He’s still collected 27 doubles and four triples, but the swift disappearance of his power has left him with a .245/.308/.315 batting line — about 23% worse than league average by measure of wRC+. Hernandez’s defensive marks at second base have taken a nosedive in recent seasons, too, and Washington has begun playing him at other positions (third base, left field) to make room for the younger Luis Garcia.
- Andrelton Simmons (33)
Simmons is, of course, primarily a shortstop. He saw more time at second base (106 innings) than at short (104) in a brief and disastrous tenure as a Cub, though. Simmons had two lengthy IL stints in 2022 due to shoulder problems, hit just .173/.244/.187 in 85 plate appearances, and was released last month. Since a pair of above-average seasons at the plate in 2017-18, he’s combined for 1087 plate appearances with three teams (Angels, Twins, Cubs) and posted a combined .244/.298/.311 slash — just a 68 wRC+.
- Jonathan Villar (32)
Another veteran infielder who signed a one-year deal with the Cubs and was released this summer, the switch-hitting Villar mustered only a .208/.260/.302 output in 220 plate appearances between Chicago and Anaheim this season. He posted solid numbers with the 2021 Mets and, from 2018-21, batted .259/.327/.408 (99 wRC+) with 58 homers and a hefty 105 steals in just shy of 2000 big league plate appearances. Villar can play any second, third and shortstop but doesn’t grade out well at any of the three.
Utility Players
- Aledmys Diaz (32)
Diaz has played at least 45 innings at five different positions this season: all four infield spots and left field. He was primarily a shortstop early in his career and still has more total innings there than at any position. He never graded well there, and as he enters his mid-30s, he’ll be viewed as more of a utility player. Diaz’s .255/.302/.427 line in 2022 is quite similar to the .259/.318/.433 slash he’s posted over four total seasons with the ‘Stros. He’s a right-handed bat who’s shown a pretty noticeable platoon split over the past couple seasons, though early in his career he hit fellow righties better than lefties.
- Jace Peterson (33)
Peterson has played mostly third base in Milwaukee this season and posted sensational defensive marks there, including 10 Defensive Runs Saved and 5 Outs Above Average in just 583 innings. He’s spent more time at second base than any other position in his career on the whole, however. The lefty-swinging Peterson has revived his career with a solid three-year run in Milwaukee, hitting .241/.339/.379 (100 wRC+) with a hefty 12.4% walk rate, 16 homers and 22 steals in 677 plate appearances. He’s even handled lefties well in a small sample over the past two seasons, although a career .217/.289/.282 output against them still suggests he’s best deployed against righties only.
- Donovan Solano (35)
A hamstring strain cost Solano more than two months, but since being activated, he’s batted .292/.343/.397 with four homers and 15 doubles in 280 trips to the plate. Solano has been quite good at home, in Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park, and below-average on the road, but this is the fourth consecutive season he’s headed for at least league-average offense. Dating back to his 2019 resurgence with the Giants, “Donnie Barrels” is hitting .303/.351/425 in 1055 plate appearances. He’ll turn 35 in December, though, and his defensive grades at second, third and shortstop in recent years are all lacking. He’s posted excellent numbers in 166 innings as a first baseman this year, however (5 DRS, 2 OAA).
Depth Pieces
- Ehire Adrianza (33): A switch-hitter with experience all over the infield and in the outfield corners, Adrianza has hit just .215/.302/.320 in 415 plate appearances dating back to 2020.
- Charlie Culberson (34): Since hitting a career-high 12 homers with the 2018 Braves, Culberson carries a .248/.291/.384 slash in 542 plate appearances. He still hits lefties well but has never had much success against righties.
- Matt Duffy (32): Duffy opened the season as the Angels’ second baseman but spent significant time on the injured list this season, primarily due to back trouble. He’s hit .255/.311/.317 in 225 plate appearances. Duffy can play any of second, third or shortstop, but injuries have limited him to 716 plate appearances over the past four seasons.
- Alcides Escobar (36): Escobar had a brief resurgence with the 2021 Nats, but that was the only time since 2014 his bat has been close to average. He hit .218/.262/.282 in 131 plate appearances with Washington this year.
- Phil Gosselin (34): The journeyman utility player has experience at every infield spot and in the outfield corners. He hit .149/.182/.176 in 77 plate appearances this year but did record a respectable .259/.316/.371 slash in 475 plate appearances from 2020-21.
- Rougned Odor (29): The O’s have somewhat bizarrely given Odor 457 plate appearances despite poor defensive ratings (-9 DRS, -3 OAA) and a .211/.278/.366 slash that generally mirrors the .200/.270/.378 line he’s posted in 966 plate appearances since 2020.
- Chris Owings (31): The big numbers Owings posted in a tiny sample with the 2021 Rockies look even flukier after he hit .107/.254/.143 in 68 plate appearances with Baltimore in 2022. He’s hit .190/.266/.300 over his past 667 MLB plate appearances.
2023 Options
- Hanser Alberto (30): Alberto’s one-year deal with the Dodgers contained a $2MM club option and a $250K buyout. Los Angeles will all likely opt for the buyout after Alberto has batted .225/.235/.344 in 153 trips to the plate. Alberto has solid defensive ratings around the infield and hits lefties well — career .320/.337/.445 hitter in 577 plate appearances — giving him some bench appeal. His recent poor showings will be hard to overlook, though.
- Josh Harrison (35): Harrison’s next plate appearance will be his 400th, boosting his 2023 club option value from $5.5MM to $5.625MM. There’s a $1.5MM buyout, making it a net $4.125MM option for the ChiSox. Based strictly on his production — nearly league-average offense and quality defense at multiple positions — Harrison’s been worth that amount. The Sox already have a crowded payroll and will be looking for more production from multiple spots in their lineup, however. They might also feel they can find comparable production/value either in-house or at a lower net price elsewhere on the market.
- Jonathan Schoop (31): Schoop can technically become a free agent this winter, but he’d have to turn down a $7.5MM player option after hitting just .203/.236/.327 in 484 plate appearances for that to happen. That’s obviously quite unlikely, but it’s worth pointing out that defensive metrics agree that Schoop has resurfaced as one of the sport’s premier defenders. He’s tallied 11 Defensive Runs Saved and posted a comically high 27 Outs Above Average at second base, per Statcast.
- Kolten Wong (32): Wong’s $10MM club option is a bit tougher to predict, if only because the Brewers tend to tread cautiously with club options and often opt for the buyout even of reasonable deals. For Wong, that’d be a $2MM buyout, rendering this an $8MM net decision. Milwaukee’s payroll next year is already loaded, and they may feel they can replace Wong’s value in-house. With an $8MM net value on the option, it’s possible he’d have some trade value to a team who’ll be looking for some upgrades at second base. Wong is hitting .252/.338/.435 and has tied a career-best with 15 homers. His defensive marks have fallen below average, however, as he’s missed time due to a calf injury for a second straight season.
Carlos Correa Is Making His Opt-Out Decision Even Easier
The Twins’ surprise signing of Carlos Correa to a three-year, $105.3MM contract was supposed to be the signature free-agent addition that washed away the lingering distaste of an awful 2021 campaign pushed them toward an AL Central crown. Instead, the Twins have wildly unperformed expectations for a second straight season, due in large part a once-again disastrous level of injury. Minnesota has had more IL days accrued than any team in the American League and trails only Cincinnati for the MLB lead in that odious category. (The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman took a player-by-player look at the Twins’ staggering injury woes just this morning.)
Very little has gone right in Minnesota this year, but with all the woes they’ve incurred in their catastrophic second half, Correa’s monstrous finish to the season has flown somewhat under the radar. As the team has crumbled around him, Correa has enjoyed just the type of sprint to the finish line the team had hoped for at the time of the contract.
Correa struggled in April and in July, sandwiching a paid of outstanding months between two below-average months at the plate. His bat picked up in late July, however, and he’s finishing out what could well be his only season with his strongest production of the year. Since Aug. 1, Correa is hitting .323/.405/.505 with eight homers, nine doubles and a triple in 222 plate appearances. Both his walk rate (11.7%) and strikeout rate (19.4%) during that stretch of 222 plate appearances are about two percentage points better than the levels Correa carried through the end of July.
Since Aug. 1, Correa ranks 10th in the Majors in batting average, ninth in on-base percentage and 25th in slugging percentage. His 162 wRC+ (indicating he’s been 62% better than the league-average hitter) in that time is tied with J.T. Realmuto for 13th in all of baseball. If you really want to cherry-pick, Correa’s ridiculous .386/.432/.670 slash over 95 plate appearances since Sept. 4 give him the fifth-best wRC+ in baseball during that time (216).
There’s no denying that Correa’s counting stats will be down from their 2021 levels when the season draws to a close. It’s at least possible that he swats another five homers and ends up tying last year’s mark off 26 long balls, though with nine games to play, it’s also unlikely. He’s not going to drive in as many runs as he did in ’21, and some of that is due to a curious power outage with runners in scoring position this season. It’s also due, however, to the simple fact that with Houston in 2021, Correa came to the plate 187 times with runners in scoring position and 304 times with men on base. This season, those numbers are currently at 116 and 248. He hasn’t been as good in big spots as he was a year ago, but also simply hasn’t had as many big spots, thanks to a Twins lineup that has routinely relied on minor league placeholders to fill in for injured regulars.
On the whole, aside from a slight dip in power (which correlates with the league-wide drop in power this season), Correa’s production at the plate in 2022 looks quite similar to in 2021. He’s hitting .289/.365/.468 as a Twin and hit .279/.366/.485 in his final season as an Astro. This year’s 89.9 mph average exit velocity is just barely shy of last year’s 90.2 mph exit velocity. He’s barreling balls more often this year than last (11.5% to 9.4%), and his overall hard-hit rate (43.8%) is a bit better than his 2021 level as well (42.5%). Essentially, Statcast feels he’s been almost the same hitter in Minneapolis as he was in Houston.
The biggest change in Correa’s valuations this season has been on the defensive side of things. His defensive ratings are down across the board, although Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating still peg him as a clearly above-average shortstop — just not the all-world, best-in-MLB-regardless-of-position defender he was in 2021. Statcast feels differently, dinging Correa at four outs below average — his first negative OAA mark since 2016.
Having just celebrated his 28th birthday last week, it seems unlikely Correa’s defensive skills have simply eroded. Repeating last year’s career-best 20 Defensive Runs Saved and massive 12 Outs Above Average was always going to be a challenge; defensive stats often oscillate just like their offensive counterparts, and the likely bet is that he’ll again be above-average across the board in 2023. He’s only made eight errors this season, six of which have been of the throwing variety. That only tells the tales of the balls Correa has gotten to, of course — hence the pitfalls of raw fielding percentage — but it does illustrate that Correa hasn’t become a clumsy-handed butcher who’s booting the routine plays.
Overall, Correa has been worth 5.0 wins above replacement, per Baseball-Reference, and 4.2 WAR per FanGraphs. His .289/.365/.468 batting line is 40% better than league-average after adjusting for league and home park, by measure of wRC+, and he’s been lauded throughout the season by teammates, coaches and the front office staff alike for his influence leadership and influence in the clubhouse. It’s not necessarily the best-case outcome the Twins might’ve hoped for when signing him, but a strong four-to-five win season and positive off-the-field impact is a strong outcome all the same.
Correa has said at multiple times this season that he and his family feel at home in Minnesota and that he’s open to, if not hopeful for a long-term offer to stay with the Twins long term. That, of course, is a sensible thing for any pending free agent to say, and the fact that he’s open to a long-term deal (presumably at top-of-the-market dollars) shouldn’t be a surprise. It’s moderately notable that he’s chosen to publicly state his hope for a long-term arrangement rather than demur and say that contract talk is for the offseason, but public comments from Correa — as with most pending free agents — can be taken with a grain of salt.
The reality is that while Correa might never find the ten-year deal and $35MM-ish annual value he was likely seeking last offseason, he can absolutely find a long-term pact that will trounce the remaining two years and $70.2MM on his current contract with the Twins. Correa can very realistically command more than $30MM per year over a long term — likely with additional opt-out opportunities baked into the deal. Because of his age, even a ten-year deal would still only run through his age-37 season. Opting out has long seemed to be the likeliest outcome for Correa, as noted on last month’s update to MLBTR’s Free Agent Power Rankings (where Correa placed fourth).
Correa’s torrid production has only improved his stock since that time. The Phillies, Cubs and Giants are reported to be among the teams that will look at free-agent shortstops. The Twins have already expressed public interest in extending the relationship. The Braves, Red Sox and Dodgers will all have their own star shortstops reach the market, creating potential openings for all three (in-house options notwithstanding). The Cardinals and Angels could need shortstops. The Orioles could theoretically be lurking and have already signaled that their payroll will increase.
The free-agent market for shortstops should be strong, and Correa’s standing among the 15 most-productive hitters in the sport over the final two months of the season has likely silenced any inkling of a doubt regarding his opt-out clause. The Twins shocked baseball in March when they signed Correa in the first place. It would register as an even bigger shock if Correa now forgoes his opportunity to return to the market on the heels of a season — and a finish — this strong.
Previewing The 2022-23 Free Agent Class: First Basemen
As the offseason approaches, MLBTR is taking a position-by-position look at the upcoming free agent class. Today, we’ll focus on first base, a group with a few well-regarded veterans coming off quality seasons at the top.
Top of the Class
- José Abreu (36*)
Abreu is coming off arguably the best season of any impending free agent first baseman. Even as he’s gotten into his mid-30s, he remains one of the better hitters in the game. Abreu carries a .304/.377/.445 line over 652 plate appearances, and he’s tied for the American League lead with 176 hits. He only has 15 home runs and is almost certain to finish with the lowest home run total of his nine-year MLB career, but he’s collected 36 doubles. Abreu also hasn’t lost much, if any, bat speed. His 92.1 MPH average exit velocity and 51.7% hard contact rate are both in line with the best marks of his career and near the top of the league overall. He’s hitting a few more ground-balls than before, but there’s no indication his physical abilities are dwindling.
Even heading into his age-36 season, Abreu will be one of the better offensive players on the market. Over the past three years, he owns a .289/.365/.489 line, ranking 14th in on-base percentage and 26th in slugging among 118 qualified hitters. He’s tough to strike out, has posted slightly above-average walk rates in each of the past two years and still has excellent batted ball metrics. He also hasn’t gone on the injured list in four seasons and has drawn plaudits for his clubhouse leadership in Chicago. The only real concern with Abreu is his age, but there’s already proof of concept he can remain productive beyond his prime-aged years. The White Sox issued him a qualifying offer back in 2019, meaning he’ll be ineligible to receive one this offseason.
- Josh Bell (30)
Bell has shown the ability to carry a lineup at his best. He hit 37 home runs with a .277/.367/.569 line for the Pirates in 2019, and he mashed at a .301/.384/.493 clip over 437 plate appearances with the Nationals earlier this season. Yet he’s also been prone to extended down stretches, and he’s headed towards free agency amidst a sharp downturn in production. Since the Padres landed him at the trade deadline, he’s hitting .191/.310/.280 with only a trio of homers in 45 games. He also had a rough 2020 season and started slowly last year before catching fire in the second half.
Even with some inconsistency, there’s a lot to like about Bell. His overall .265/.355/.452 line dating back to the start of 2021 is a fair bit better than the .254/.331/.440 league mark for first basemen. Bell is a switch-hitter with excellent plate discipline, and he consistently draws walks in over 10% of his plate appearances. He has three 25-homer seasons on his resume and typically rates near the top of the league in average exit velocity and hard contact percentage, although his batted ball metrics this season have been right around league average. Bell has shown a promising combination of power and patience in years past, and he’s not a prototypical strikeout-prone slugger. His 15.6% strikeout rate this season is nearly seven points lower than the league mark. He looks like an impact bat when everything’s clicking, but he’ll hit the market coming off a rough couple months. Because of the midseason trade, Bell is ineligible to receive a qualifying offer.
Regulars
- Trey Mancini (31)
Mancini made an incredible comeback from a battle with colon cancer that cost him the entire 2020 season. He’s hit at a slightly above-average level in each of the following two years, compiling 39 total home runs with a .251/.326/.418 line. Mancini’s production in each of the last two years has been roughly the same: average strikeout and walk rates with slightly better than par batted ball metrics and power output. Mancini’s over-the-fence pop was down during his first few months with the Orioles this season, but that’s certainly in part due to the changing dimensions at Camden Yards that weren’t friendly to right-handed hitters. Mancini is more a solid hitter than an impact one, with his .291/.364/.535 showing in 2019 looking increasingly like an outlier. He does most things well, though, and he was a beloved clubhouse and community presence in Baltimore. Mancini probably wouldn’t have received a qualifying offer regardless, but a midseason trade to the Astros officially took that off the table.
Veterans Coming Off Down Years
- Yuli Gurriel (39)
Gurriel is a season removed from winning the American League batting title with a .319/.383/.462 showing in 2021. Unfortunately, he’s followed that up with a woeful .238/.283/.357 line over 558 plate appearances. Gurriel has been one of the least productive everyday players in the big leagues, and he’s now posted below-average showings in two of the past three seasons. Now past his 38th birthday, it seems he’s nearing or past the point where he’ll be a productive big leaguer. That also looked to be the case in 2020, though, and he responded with an excellent ’21 campaign. He’ll get another chance to do the same this winter, but there aren’t many positives to take away from his 2022 performance.
- Carlos Santana (37)
One of the game’s best on-base hitters at his peak, Santana has seen his production dip over the past three years. He had well below-average numbers in 2020-21 but has bounced back somewhat this season, compiling a .194/.311/.378 line in 473 plate appearances between the Royals and Mariners. The sub-Mendoza line batting average is an obvious eyesore, but Santana’s overall hitting checks in at league average, by measure of wRC+. That’s largely thanks to his extremely patient approach, which has allowed him to work a walk in 14.2% of his plate appearances even as his results on batted balls have plummeted. Santana is probably miscast as a regular at this stage of his career, but he’s gotten significant run between first base and designated hitter with two teams this year thanks to his plate discipline.
- Brandon Belt (35)
Like Gurriel, Belt was one of the better first basemen in 2021. A .274/.378/.597 showing earned him an $18.4MM qualifying offer from the Giants, which he accepted. The left-handed hitter didn’t come close to replicating that production this season, with his year largely derailed by knee problems. Belt hit .213/.326/.350 over 298 plate appearances while battling injury, and he underwent season-ending surgery on his right knee earlier this month. Indications are the surgery went well and he’s going to be ready for Spring Training. When healthy, Belt is capable of anchoring a lineup. Yet he’s battled plenty of injuries in recent years, and this trip to the market comes on the heels of a season diminished by knee issues.
Multi-Positional Players
- Brandon Drury (30)
Drury will probably draw interest from teams looking for help all around the infield. He’s played mostly third base this season but also logged 25+ games at each of second and first base. A minor league signee by the Reds last winter, Drury has elevated his stock with a career showing in 2022. He mashed at a .274/.335/.520 clip with 20 homers in 385 plate appearances with Cincinnati. The Reds flipped him to the Padres at the trade deadline. He’s tailed off in San Diego, posting a meager .265 on-base percentage but collecting another eight round-trippers in 37 games. Drury looked to be in journeyman territory at this time last year, but his .261/.316/.501 cumulative line this season should get him a multi-year deal.
- Donovan Solano (35)
Drury’s former teammate in Cincinnati, Solano plays a similar bat-first utility role. He’s worked mostly as a designated hitter this year, but he’s played frequently at the corner infield spots and second base as well. He’s hitting .292/.343/.397 over 280 plate appearances, his fourth straight above-average offensive year since reemerging late in his career as a member of the Giants. A glove-first second baseman early in his career with the Marlins, he’s compensated for declining defensive marks by hitting .280 or better in four consecutive seasons. Solano doesn’t walk much or have a ton of power, but his high-average game is atypical in today’s offensive environment. As with Drury, teams aren’t going to view him as an everyday option at first base, but he’s a good addition to a bench who can cover multiple spots on the infield.
Depth Types
- Jesús Aguilar (33)
Aguilar hit 35 home runs a few seasons ago, and he was still an above-average hitter with the Marlins between 2020-21. The 2022 season has been a struggle, as he hit .236/.286/.388 over 456 plate appearances with the Fish and was released late last month. He hooked on with the Orioles but hasn’t contributed much in 12 games in Baltimore. Aguilar could be looking at a minor league deal with a Spring Training invite this winter.
- Colin Moran (30)
A regular for a few seasons with the Pirates, Moran was on and off the Reds roster this year. He hit only .211/.305/.376 with five homers in 128 MLB plate appearances and posted slightly below-average numbers in Triple-A. Cincinnati released him earlier this month.
A longtime minor leaguer, Schwindel had a fantastic second half to the 2021 campaign. Getting his first extended MLB action with the Cubs, he hit .342/.389/.613 over 56 games. Chicago gave him an opportunity to see if he could emerge as a late-blooming regular, but he hit .229/.277/.358 in 292 trips to the plate this season. The Cubs released Schwindel last week.
- Yoshi Tsutsugo (30)
Tsutsugo caught on with the Pirates late in 2021 and had a great final month. That earned him a $4MM contract to return to Pittsburgh, but he stumbled to a .171/.249/.229 line with only two homers in 193 plate appearances. The Bucs released him in August, and he signed a minor league deal with the Blue Jays. He’s hitting well in Triple-A overall but striking out a third of the time there, and he hasn’t gotten a big league call from Toronto. Whether the Jays eventually add him to the MLB roster or not, he’ll be a free agent at year’s end.
Player Options
- Anthony Rizzo (33), $16MM player option
Rizzo signed a two-year, $32MM guarantee with the Yankees last offseason. That deal afforded him an opt-out chance after this year, and there’s a solid case for Rizzo to take it following his best season since 2019. He’s connected on 32 home runs and slugged .492. Rizzo’s .223 batting average is among the worst of his career, but that’s largely due to a personal-worst .212 average on balls in play. A pull hitter who has been shifted on over 84% of his at-bats this season, per Statcast, he’s likely to be among the top beneficiaries of the forthcoming shift limitations. Even a slight uptick in his ball in play results could help Rizzo regain his peak form, since he’s still hitting the ball hard and is difficult to strike out.
The longtime Cub has a strong defensive reputation, although his public metrics have dipped over the past couple seasons. He’s also widely regarded as an excellent clubhouse presence and team leader. If Rizzo triggers his opt-out clause, the Yankees would have the ability to make him a qualifying offer.
- Eric Hosmer (33), can opt out of final three years and $39MM remaining on his contract
There’s little intrigue with Hosmer’s opt-out decision. He’ll certainly opt in to the final $39MM on his deal (almost all of which will be paid by the Padres) to return to the Red Sox. Hosmer has a .267/.333/.381 line with eight homers in 414 plate appearances this season.
Club Options
- Wil Myers (32), $20MM team option with $1MM buyout
The Padres will obviously buy Myers out, likely ending an eight-year run in the organization. Aside from a monster showing during the shortened 2020 campaign, the right-handed hitter has been a slightly above-average hitter for most of his time in San Diego. This season’s .255/.306/.379 showing across 265 plate appearances is his worst as a Padre, and he’s been limited to a situational role — primarily between the corner outfield and first base. Myers has some power and is a serviceable defender in the corners. He’s likely to land a big league deal but is probably miscast as an everyday player.
- Miguel Sanó (30), $14MM team option with $3MM buyout
Sanó’s time with the Twins is probably nearing its end, as Minnesota is certain to buy out his 2023 option. The burly slugger has almost as much raw power as anyone in the sport, but his production has been inconsistent because of his huge strikeout totals. Sanó played in only 20 games this season because of left knee issues and hit terribly when on the field.
Note: Albert Pujols is playing on a one-year contract with the Cardinals and will technically qualify for free agency at season’s end. He has started 18 games at first base, but he’s already announced he’ll retire after the 2022 campaign.
* Player age for 2023 season
Previous FA positional previews: catcher
The Cardinals’ Second-Half Breakout Outfielder
The Cardinals have been among the sport’s most consistently successfully clubs in recent years, finishing above .500 each season since 2008. Among the reasons for those perennially strong results: the team’s knack for developing players from the middle tier of the farm system into successful major leaguers.
That ability to churn out productive hitters is a key factor in the club closing in on an NL Central title. Plenty of attention has been devoted to the MVP-caliber contributions of corner infielders Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt and the incredible turnaround for Albert Pujols, who collected his 700th career homer last Friday. That’s well-deserved, but it shouldn’t obscure from the production the club has gotten outside the middle of the lineup.
There are a few players who’ve been instrumental pieces of Oliver Marmol’s lineup. Tommy Edman has played Gold Glove caliber defense at both middle infield positions and stolen 31 bases. Even with roughly league average hitting, he’s been worth between five and six wins above replacement, according to FanGraphs and Baseball Reference. Brendan Donovan will probably get some third-place votes in NL Rookie of the Year balloting thanks to an excellent .279/.389/.377 line across 436 plate appearances. Yet neither player has been as impactful for St. Louis in the second half as second-year outfielder Lars Nootbaar.
Like Edman and Donovan, Nootbaar was a mid-round draftee. An eighth-round pick out of USC in 2018, he didn’t appear on an organizational prospect ranking at Baseball America before making his MLB debut last June. The left-handed hitter posted a league average .239/.317/.422 showing in 58 games as a rookie, but he didn’t have a place in a season-opening outfield of Tyler O’Neill, Harrison Bader and Dylan Carlson. Nootbaar saw a fair bit of pinch hit work early in the season, tallying 101 plate appearances in 40 games through the All-Star Break. St. Louis optioned him to Triple-A on three separate occasions, including a nearly month-long stint between April and May.
Nootbaar wasn’t especially productive during that early-season work. A plantar fasciitis diagnosis for Bader pushed Carlson from right field to center in late June, opening up the former position. St. Louis then dealt the injured Bader to the Yankees at the August 2 trade deadline, subtracting from the big league outfield to address their rotation needs by bringing in Jordan Montgomery. That marked a show of faith in both Carlson to handle the increased defensive demands up the middle, and in Nootbaar to hold his own with regular playing time in right field.
St. Louis brass has to be pleased with the way Nootbaar has taken to the opportunity. Since deadline day, he’s hitting .228/.362/.497 with nine home runs and seven doubles over 185 plate appearances. While the batting average isn’t eye-catching, he ranks 37th in on-base percentage and 30th in slugging among 149 qualified hitters over that stretch. Overall, Nootbaar’s season line is up to .229/.345/.458 in 316 plate appearances, offense that checks in 29 points above league average by measure of wRC+.
The results are strong as is, but the more impressive aspect is that Nootbaar has found success with dismal ball in play results. He owns a .221 BABIP since deadline day, the sixth-lowest mark among qualifiers. That’s not entirely attributable to poor fortune; Nootbaar hasn’t hit many line drives over this stretch. Yet he’s both hitting the ball hard and showing a strong awareness for the strike zone. His 17.3% walk rate since the deadline is topped only by Aaron Judge and Juan Soto, and he’s one of eight qualified batters with more free passes than punchouts. His 91.6 MPH average exit velocity and 47.5% hard contact rate, meanwhile, are each decidedly better than average.
Nootbaar’s production has tailed off in September following a scorching August, largely thanks to a woeful .146 BABIP this month. The power, plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills have largely remained intact, however. He has a 10:13 walk-to-strikeout ratio in 68 September plate appearances, and he’s connected on six extra-base hits (including four longballs).
During his first extended action as an everyday major league player, Nootbaar has shown plus power potential, an extremely discerning eye and decent bat-to-ball skills. Even if his line drive rate stays down, he’s shown the ability to be productive despite a subpar batting average. If Nootbaar can improve upon his bat control even slightly, he has a chance to be a well above-average offensive player.
He’ll certainly need more than two months of solid production to cement himself as a core piece of the organization’s future, but he’s played his way into an everyday outfield job heading into the playoffs. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak, GM Michael Girsch and the rest of the front office took a risk in dealing from their outfield in the middle of a contested division race. Nootbaar has, thus far, rewarded their faith by effectively stepping into that vacancy.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Poll: National League Rookie Of The Year
This year’s National League Rookie of the Year voting will be a particularly fun one because the two front-runners happen to be teammates. Braves right-hander Spencer Strider and center fielder Michael Harris II both burst onto the scene in 2022 and both cemented themselves as building blocks in Atlanta. Wins above replacement is far, far from the be-all and end-all in ascertaining player value, but it’s still telling that Strider and Harris are both north of four WAR on the season (per both Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs), while no other NL rookie has even three wins above replacement per either version of the metric.
Harris and Strider have both played at an All-Star level this season, though neither actually made the All-Star team this summer. That’s due largely to the fact that Strider began the season in the bullpen and Harris didn’t make his debut until late May. Given their play in 2022, that could change as early as next summer.
There’s still a bit of time for the bottom line to change, although with Strider on the 15-day injured list due to an oblique strain, his regular season is likely over. Harris will have another nine games to build his case, pending any off-days or an untimely injury of his own. Let’s take a quick look at each player’s candidacy.
A Quick Case for Strider
Dominant this season as both a reliever (2.22 ERA in 24 1/3 innings) and a starter (2.77 ERA, 107 1/3 innings), Strider leads all National League rookies with 131 2/3 innings pitched. Cincinnati’s Hunter Greene, a popular ROY pick prior to the season, is a distant second place at 113 2/3 innings. Strider’s gaudy 38.3% strikeout rate isn’t just the best among rookie pitchers in 2022 — it’s the best among all Major League pitchers who have thrown at least 100 innings. Shane McClanahan is the only pitcher in Major League Baseball (again, min. 100 innings pitched) who has induced swinging strikes at a higher clip than Strider’s 15.5%.
Strider’s overall numbers — 131 2/3 innings, 2.67 ERA, 38.3% strikeout rate, 8.5% walk rate — are so dominant that if he had a few more innings on his resume, he’d be in the mix for some down-ballot Cy Young votes. (He may still get a handful, but he’s not going to stack up alongside the current leaders.)
A common argument against Strider is that he shouldn’t be favored because he plays less often than an everyday player (e.g. Harris). Firstly, unlike most of even the fringe ROY candidates, Strider broke camp with the Braves this year. He’s been on the roster since Opening Day, which Harris and others can’t claim.
Secondly, Strider has faced 528 batters this season and, were it not for the oblique injury, would’ve pushed that number close to 600. Even that 528 mark is greater than the total number of plate appearances for any National League rookie hitter. Strider (and pitchers in general) may appear in a fewer number of their team’s overall games, but as a pitcher, he has more direct influence on the outcome of every single plate appearance than any of the defenders behind him. On average, he faced 21.7 hitters per start. That’s nearly a week’s worth of plate appearances for a position player.
Put more succinctly, the counter-argument to that common knock on Strider is that hitters play a smaller role in determining the outcome of a large number of their team’s games; pitchers play a larger role in determining the outcome of a small number of their team’s games.
A Quick Case for Harris
In terms of wins above replacement, Harris trails only Julio Rodriguez for the rookie lead, per FanGraphs (4.8), and only Rodriguez and Cleveland’ Steven Kwan, per Baseball-Reference (5.1). He’s a dynamic player in all facets of the game, hitting .305/.346/.535 with 19 home runs and 19 steals apiece. Harris doesn’t walk much (4.7%) and strikes out a bit more than average (23.8%), but that hasn’t stopped him from being 43% better than the average hitter, by measure of wRC+ (or 42%, per OPS+).
Defensively, Harris looks like a future Gold Glover. He might not win one this season, as his cumulative defensive contributions are impacted by the fact that he spent nearly two months in the minors, but every publicly available metric is in agreement that he’s a plus, if not elite defender. In 949 innings of center field work, Harris has received standout marks from Defensive Runs Saved (7), Ultimate Zone Rating (3.9) and Statcast (6 Outs Above Average, 5 Runs Above Average), to name a few. Harris ranks in the 92nd percentile of Statcast’s Outs Above Average, the 87th percentile for his jumps on balls hit to the outfield, and in 94th percentile for pure sprint speed.
It’s true that Strider has more batters faced than Harris has plate appearances, but Harris has fielded far more balls in play in center field than Strider has on the mound. His value as a defensive player is far superior, particularly given his elite results in 2022. Harris also provides baserunning value that Strider doesn’t have the ability (or even the opportunity) to match. Despite appearing in just 106 games so far, Harris ranks 17th among all big leaguers in baserunning runs above average, per FanGraphs’ — a cumulative stat that incorporates more than just his impressive 19-for-21 showing in stolen bases.
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There’s really no wrong answer; both players have had sensational starts to their career and both have been absolutely vital pieces of a Braves team that trails the Mets by 1.5 games for the National League East lead. Still, only one of the two is going to take home Rookie of the Year honors in November. Who should it be?
Who should win National League Rookie of the Year honors?
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Spencer Strider 50% (4,563)
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Michael Harris II 44% (3,954)
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Someone else (specify in comments) 6% (547)
Total votes: 9,064
Big Hype Prospects: Tovar, Flores, Rodriguez, Manzardo, Gentry
This week on Big Hype Prospects, we use Baseball America’s Minor League Player of the Year awards as a lens to highlight a few guys who didn’t get enough love in this column.
Five Big Hype Prospects
Ezequiel Tovar, 21, SS, COL (AAA)
(AA) 295 PA, 13 HR, 17 SB, .318/.386/.545
Tovar wasn’t picked for the Rockies Player of the Year in what ultimately was a coin-flip situation with Adael Amador. However, we discussed Amador last week, and Tovar is set to make his debut today. After performing well in Double-A, Tovar compiled 23 successful plate appearances at Triple-A. He’ll get a brief trial to finish out 2022 while the club considers its long-term plans.
Scouting reports often start with Tovar’s defense which is universally well-regarded and should stand out in a post-extreme-shifts metagame. He relies far less on positioning than the many big-bodied shortstops around the league. As a hitter, he’s improved his quality of contact this season. There’s still concern he’ll be strikeout and soft contact prone early in his career as he further develops his plate discipline. His selectivity does seem to be trending in a positive direction.
A couple freely available reports such as this one from FanGraphs make mention of his hit tool as a carrying trait. Hit-tool-oriented prospects tend to have rocky developmental paths (no pun intended). At lower levels, they perform well against pitches outside of the zone which lends itself to an ineffective, swing-happy approach in the Majors. We’ll soon get a first look at how Tovar adjusts.
Wilmer Flores, 21, SP, DET (AA)
83.2 IP, 10.22 K/9, 2.26 BB/9, 3.01 ERA
The latest pitcher to arise in the Tigers system, Flores squashed High-A hitters early in 2022 before moving on Double-A. Not to be confused with his brother, 10-year veteran infielder Wilmer Flores, Flores is a pitcher by the same name who relies on arm strength and a pair of power breaking balls. Reports mention poor command despite a low walk rate – an indication he’s throwing his stuff in the zone and letting hitters get themselves out. For a poor-command pitcher with plus stuff, there are worse ways to develop. This season, at least two notoriously errant relievers – Jose Alvarado and Felix Bautista – had breakouts by simply throwing more pitches in the strike zone.
Flores entered the season firmly considered a future reliever. His work this year, including maintaining velocity deep into outings, is beginning to change that perspective.
Endy Rodriguez, 22, C/2B, PIT (AAA)
(AA) 138 PA, 8 HR, 1 SB, .356/.442/.678
Acquired in the Joe Musgrove trade, Rodriguez’s development advanced by leaps and bounds this season. He entered the year as a utility man with some catching experience. He now looks the part of either a premium catcher or second baseman. His hitting, which has always been discipline-forward, took a big step this season. Including all three levels he’s played, Rodriguez hit 24 home runs, 37 doubles, and three triples in 520 plate appearances. Not only is he hitting for power, he’s making excellent swing decisions and improving at every level. In a more widely applauded system, this performance could merit inclusion among the Top 25 prospects. As it stands, he’s quietly leaping onto Top 100 lists.
Kyle Manzardo, 22, 1B, TBR (AA)
122 PA, 5 HR, 1 SB, .323/.402/.576
A six-foot-one-inch first baseman, Manzardo will have to mash to earn his way to the Majors. Fortunately, he’s already doing so. He also finds himself in the right organization. The Rays are the only team to give the similarly height-deprived Ji-Man Choi a chance to find a role. Manzardo shows better potential to avoid strikeouts than Choi while maintaining comparable plate discipline. Including High-A, his 22 home runs in 397 plate appearances represent an improvement on preseason scouting reports that suggested he had below-average power. Manzardo, a left-handed hitter, skews slightly to fly ball contact. Depending on the development of his power, he could become a premium first baseman or else struggle with low BABIPs at the upper levels. The early returns suggest the first outcome is likelier.
Tyler Gentry, 23, OF, KC (AA)
331 PA, 16 HR, 8 SB, .321/.417/.555
The Royals were perhaps held back by the sheer volume of prospects they promoted to the Majors this season. That also means there’s room for new names to ascend, like Gentry. A well-rounded hitter, Gentry thrived in 152 High-A plate appearances before ascending to Double-A where he continued to excel. Per Baseball America, he credits a simplified approach and load with his offensive breakout – not that he wasn’t already a well-regarded hitter entering the season. The knock on him is his defense. He’s a corner outfielder who isn’t known for particularly good jumps. It’s a profile that requires a big bat to work in the Majors. While he doesn’t have a single carrying trait as a hitter, the entire profile plays up thanks to plus discipline and a knack for barreled contact. Keep an eye on his BABIPs next season.
Five More
Taylor Dollard, SEA (23): The Mariners graduated Julio Rodriguez and George Kirby. Matt Brash joined the bullpen, Emerson Hancock had a down season, and Noelvi Marte was exported to Cincinnati. Dollard steps in as a candidate for the top spot in the Seattle system on a pitchability basis. The right-hander limits walks (1.94 BB/9) and can induce plenty of whiffs when needed. He mostly pitches to contact, making him a potential future innings-eater on track to debut next season.
Louie Varland, MIN (24): Making his third big league start as I write, Varland pitched ably in 20 Double-A appearances before an impressive four-game stint in Triple-A. While he’s not a physical specimen and lacks the mutant velocity associated with most of today’s pitching prospects, Varland does possess a four-pitch repertoire of average offerings. He’s able to mix and match in a way that should, eventually, keep big league hitters off balance. He’ll probably toss his share of clunkers along the way.
Jeremy De La Rosa, WSH (20): A left-handed hitting center fielder with defensive chops, De La Rosa performed well as an age-appropriate position player at Low-A. A promotion to High-A didn’t slow his base thievery, but it did render his bat impotent (53 wRC+). De La Rosa seems poised for a slow-burn developmental path. Defense all but assures an eventual Major League arrival while a high strikeout rate could render him a long-term backup.
Ceddanne Rafaela, BOS (22): A five-foot-eight-inch utility man, Rafaela hit for surprising power across two levels this season. He’s an aggressive hacker with plenty of swing-and-miss to his game, traits that could be exploited in the upper levels. This season, he managed 21 home runs and 28 stolen bases in 524 plate appearances split between High- and Double-A. He turned 22 five days ago.
Colson Montgomery, CWS (20): Montgomery started slow and didn’t impress in several looks I took this season. However, the composite stats show promise from the multi-sport athlete. He makes a ton of contact, works counts well, and is already developing sneaky power. Most players with his background – he was a rising hoops star who also played quarterback – tend to move slowly through the lower levels. Montgomery has already risen to Double-A.
MLBTR Poll: Predicting The NL East Winner
As the regular season nears its conclusion, the playoff picture has mostly come into focus. Of the 12 teams currently in playoff position, 10 have a cushion of at least 4 1/2 games. The Padres and Phillies are working to hold off the Brewers for the final two Wild Card spots in the National League, but the rest of the teams currently in playoff position have put themselves in a great spot to reach the postseason barring a major collapse. There’s an outside shot the White Sox track down the Guardians in the AL Central or the Orioles get back into the AL Wild Card race, but it’d take a major turn of events over the next two weeks.
There’s a similar lack of intrigue in most of the division races. The Astros and Dodgers have already clinched their respective divisions. The Yankees, Guardians and Cardinals all hold leads of six-plus games in theirs. The only division race that promises plenty of intrigue down the stretch: the battle for the NL East.
Both the Mets and Braves are already guaranteed to make the postseason. They’re each likely to surpass 100 wins. Yet one of those teams will come up just shy of a division title, leaving them as the #4 seed in the National League. That means a three-game series against the #5 seed in a first-round Wild Card set under the playoff format introduced in this spring’s collective bargaining agreement. Obviously, both teams would much prefer to secure the division title (and almost certainly the NL’s #2 seed and accompanying first-round bye). Which one is the frontrunner for the division crown? Let’s take a look at the remaining road for each and their current health outlook.
Mets (95-56 record, +147 run differential)
Remaining schedule: at Oakland (three games), vs. Miami (two games), at Atlanta (three games), vs. Washington (three games)
The Mets have 11 games remaining. Eight of them are against teams 28 games or more below .500. The other three: a crucial series next weekend in Atlanta. New York welcomed back Max Scherzer from a brief injured list stint on Monday. He came out with six perfect innings against the Brewers, striking out nine, before being lifted due to a pitch count limitation. The Mets rotation is at full strength at the right time, pushing players like Tylor Megill and David Peterson into the bullpen.
The biggest current injury for the Mets is on the position player side. Right fielder Starling Marte has yet to return after suffering a non-displaced fracture in his right middle finger two weeks back. Anthony DiComo of MLB.com tweeted this afternoon that the All-Star outfielder is hopeful he’ll be back in time for next weekend’s series with the Braves. Center fielder Brandon Nimmo, meanwhile, left today’s game with left quad soreness. Mike Puma of the New York Post relays that he’s likely to go for imaging tomorrow but Nimmo downplayed the severity of the issue postgame.
Braves (93-56 record, +171 run differential)
Remaining schedule: at Philadelphia (four games), at Washington (three games), vs. Mets (three games), at Miami (three games)
The defending champions dug themselves an early hole with a mediocre first two months, but they’ve been incredible since the calendar flipped to June. They’re a staggering 70-28 over the past three and a half months, nearly erasing a deficit that was once as high as 10 1/2 games in the process. They’ve pulled even with the Mets in the loss column but have two fewer wins, leaving them with a bit more work to do to get ahead in the standings.
The Braves kick off a four-game set with the Phillies tomorrow. That’s a much more difficult series than any the Mets will play (aside from the Braves themselves), but Atlanta just swept Philly last weekend.
Like the Mets, Atlanta doesn’t have any key starting pitchers currently on the injured list. Rookie star Spencer Strider is battling some oblique soreness and had today’s scheduled start pushed back slightly, but there’s no indication an IL stint is currently under consideration. As with New York, Atlanta is down one star position player thanks to a fractured finger though. The Braves lost Ozzie Albies to a right pinky fracture over the weekend. There’s a chance he returns in the postseason but he’s not expected back before the end of the regular season. Rookie Vaughn Grissom filled in well in recent weeks while Albies was rehabbing a broken foot; he’ll be asked to do the same for the stretch run.
Tiebreaker procedure
The final three games between the Mets and Braves obviously loom as the largest remaining on the schedule for both clubs. Not only are they the most directly impactful in the standings, they also carry implications for the tiebreaker. The new CBA did away with the traditional Game 163 in favor of a tiebreaker system. If two clubs finish the season with the same record, the team with the better head-to-head mark gets the nod in the standings. The Mets lead this year’s season series 9-7, meaning Atlanta would need to sweep their final meeting to secure the tiebreaker.
How does the MLBTR readership expect things to play out? Which team will celebrate an NL East crown two weeks from now?
(poll link for app users)
Which Team Will Win The NL East?
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Mets 53% (6,340)
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Braves 47% (5,574)
Total votes: 11,914
Nick Martinez’s Looming Opt-Out Decision
When the 2021-22 offseason commenced, Nick Martinez wasn’t even on the radar for most MLB fans. The right-hander had stumbled through an uninspiring four-year run with the Rangers from 2014-17, and while a big showing in Japan put him back on the radar of MLB clubs, it was still a shock to see him sign the 14th-largest contract of any pitcher last offseason. Martinez not only secured an eye-opening four-year term and $25.5MM guarantee from the Padres — he was also promised the opportunity to opt out of his contract after each season of the deal.
It’s an upside-laden contract for the player. Annual opt-outs of that nature tend to go to coveted free agents settling for shorter-term deals than they might otherwise prefer (e.g. Carlos Correa in Minnesota). It’s not an entirely new concept — Scott Kazmir got that treatment from the Dodgers as far back as 2015 when signing his three-year, $48MM deal — and it’s one that Padres president of baseball ops has now used to lure in a pair of players he played a role in signing and developing during his time with Texas; Jurickson Profar‘s three-year, $21MM contract also contained an opt-out after each of the first two seasons.
Martinez’s four-year deal pays him a $2MM signing bonus and a $4MM salary in 2022. All three of his player options are valued at $6.5MM, and he’d receive a $1.5MM buyout if he decided to turn an option down and test free agency. In other words, Martinez’s upcoming option effectively is a net $18MM decision. The signing bonus, 2022 salary and option buyout are all but banked. The question for him is one of whether he can top $18MM in free agency this winter.
It’s fair to question whether that can be called a given. On the surface, Martinez’s 3.22 ERA in 100 1/3 innings has to be considered a roaring success. He entered the 2022 season with a career 4.77 ERA in 415 1/3 innings, all coming in that prior run with the Rangers — one that concluded with consecutive ERAs north of 5.50.
At the same time, Martinez hasn’t exactly dominated opponents. His 20.9% strikeout rate is below the 22.3% league average, while his 8.6% walk rate is ever so slightly higher than the 8.2% league average. Martinez induces grounders at an above-average clip (46.7% compared to 42.2%) but also surrenders home runs more frequently than the average pitcher (1.25 HR/9 compared to 1.10 HR/9).
The role — or rather, the roles — that Martinez has filled this year don’t necessarily help his cause, either. He opened the year as the Padres’ fifth starter but was part of a six-man rotation by May and was moved to the bullpen full-time in mid-June, after 10 solid but unspectacular starts (52 1/3 innings, 4.30 ERA, 20.4 K%, 11.7 BB%).
In the bullpen, things have gone better. Martinez has tallied 48 1/3 innings in relief and worked to a 2.05 ERA. His 21.5% strikeout rate in the ‘pen is only moderately higher than it was out of the rotation, but to his credit, Martinez’s 4.7% walk rate as a reliever is miles better than it was coming out of the rotation. (Whether teams deem that to be sustainable is another open question.) He’s picked up eight saves and six holds for the Friars, but early on, the majority of his work came in lower-leverage situations. Even three of those eight saves were of the three-inning variety in long relief. He’s been used in later, higher-leverage spots as the summer has worn on, but Martinez will likely finish the season having spent only a couple months working in the critical leverage spots for which teams tend to pay top dollar.
There are other elements to consider, too. Martinez rates well in terms of his overall average exit velocity, yielding just an 86.6 mph average to his opponents. That checks into the 87th percentile among MLB pitchers. He also boasts above-average spin on his fastball and curveball alike, and Martinez has excelled at inducing chases on pitches off the plate. However, Martinez’s 37.2% hard-hit rate is barely better than the league-average, and the 8.2% barrel rate he’s yielded is well shy of league average (32nd percentile). Basically, when he does allow contact, he’s been much more prone to loud contact than one would expect when looking the mean results.
Martinez’s case is an interesting one. He didn’t thrive in a rotation role, even when facing hitters the first time through the order (.282/.311/.447). As is typically the case, those numbers worsened the second and third time he faced an opponent in a game. He’s been excellent the first trip through the lineup as a reliever, however (.201/.261/.289), even though he didn’t completely overhaul his pitch arsenal when shifting to bullpen work. At a time when relievers and even some starters are gravitating toward focusing on two plus pitches, Martinez’s approach is uncommon: he’s the rare reliever who deploys a five-pitch mix (four-seamer, cutter, sinker, curve, changeup).
MLBTR’s Anthony Franco wrote a few weeks ago that Martinez appears unlikely to opt out of the remaining three years on his contract, as it’s a stretch to envision him topping that remaining guarantee. There’s merit to that line of thinking. Martinez was unexciting in a brief run as a starter, has impressed but not dominated as a reliever, and doesn’t have the type of elite velocity, spin rate or whiff rate that serve as the portent to a breakout.
On the spectrum of outcomes, his 2022 season hasn’t been a best-case scenario but has been better than average. A 90th percentile outcome or better might have seen Martinez play a prominent role and pitch toward the top of the San Diego rotation; giving 10 serviceable starts before moving to the ‘pen and slowly climbing into a leverage role has to rank somewhere in the 60th to 75th percentile of outcomes. The Padres are surely happy with the year-one results.
Martinez’s decision is made difficult because the very nature of the contract he signed sat outside the norms of conventional contract structures for typical MLB free agents. Generally speaking, free agents very rarely sign three- and four-year deals with average annual values in the $6-7MM range. Even back-end starters will crack the $8-10MM range on one- and two-year deals. It’s not uncommon to see a setup reliever sign a multi-year deal in this AAV range, but most recent examples have been of the two-year variety.
If Martinez hopes to beat the net $18MM on his contract, he’d need a team to value him in the $10MM range over a two-year span or an $8-9MM range over a three-year span. In the case of the former, that’d likely mean a team believing he can function as a starter on a full-time basis. The latter structure is typically reserved for some of the market’s most highly desirable relievers (e.g. Kendall Graveman‘s three-year deal with the White Sox, Joe Kelly‘s three-year deal with the Dodgers). It’s hard to include Martinez in that same category.
Still, there’s a logical disconnect between the idea that the market produced a $25.5MM guarantee for Martinez a year ago, when he was a total wild card, but might not produce better than an $18MM guarantee now that he’s proven himself capable of providing legitimate value to a contending MLB club. The source of that disconnect may simply be the allure of the unknown. There may yet be room for Martinez to take his game to another level, but some of the perceived upside stemming from the 1.60 ERA, 25% strikeout rate and 6.9% walk rate he posted in his final NPB campaign has perhaps dwindled. That’s not to say he’s not a valuable big league pitcher — he certainly has been — but now that he’s more of an established commodity, that same upside might not be baked into a potential new contract.
Suffice it to say, Martinez’s opt-out looks like something of a borderline case. He can fill multiple roles, has shined out of the ‘pen, held his own in the rotation but hasn’t dominated opponents at any step along the way. He’d need to be confident teams will view him as at least $9-10MM per year pitcher in order to opt out, because even though a $7-8MM AAV over a three-year term would be a win for him, that’s tougher to come by when you’re selling your age-32 through age-34 seasons.
If he sticks with the Padres, they’ll be happy to have him. Mike Clevinger and Sean Manaea are free agents at season’s end, and the Friars traded MacKenzie Gore to the Nationals in the Juan Soto deal. Their 2023 rotation depth is not as sound as this year’s was and is. In the bullpen, each of Robert Suarez, Pierce Johnson and Craig Stammen can become a free agent. Martinez provides some valuable substance to both groups. The $18MM question is whether that value is significant enough that he’ll again test his luck on the open market.
We can close this one out with a poll…
Will Nick Martinez opt out of his contract with the Padres?
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No, he'll stay. He can always consider opting out again next winter. 78% (1,197)
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Yes, he should be able to expect better offers in free agency. 22% (346)
Total votes: 1,543
Previewing The 2022-23 Free Agent Class: Catchers
There’s only two weeks left in the regular season, and half the league is all but officially out of postseason contention at this point. All 30 teams are assuredly looking ahead to the offseason to some extent, and that’s all the more true for the clubs that are merely playing out the string. Identifying free agent targets is a big part of that offseason prep work, so it’s worth taking an early look at the players who’ll be available on the open market.
Over the coming weeks, MLBTR will go around the diamond to preview the free agent class. We’ll begin today with the backstops, a group that seemed rather deep entering the 2022 season but has since seen most of its membership struggle through subpar years.
Top of the Class
- Willson Contreras (31*)
Contreras is the unquestioned top player on this year’s catching class. He’s one of the game’s preeminent offensive backstops, eclipsing 20 home runs in each of the past three full seasons. Contreras hits a lot of ground-balls and has a fair bit of swing-and-miss to his game, but his exit velocities and hard contact rates are consistently well above average. That’s also true of his bottom-line results. Through 462 plate appearances, Contreras carries a .246/.351/.471 line that shatters the .229/.297/.370 mark compiled by catchers around the league. He’s tailed off a bit in the second half after an All-Star first few months, but he has a multi-year track record as one of the better hitting catchers in the game.
The concerns with Contreras lie on the other side of the ball. He owns a solid arm, but public pitch framing metrics have never been enamored with his work. Reports leading up to the trade deadline suggested some teams were wary of adding him midseason, questioning his ability to adapt to and manage a new pitching staff on the fly. That’s perhaps not as concerning for teams considering a free agent pursuit — Contreras would have part of the offseason and Spring Training to connect with his pitchers — but there was ostensibly enough worry about his game-calling acumen that no team met the Cubs lofty asking price this summer. How much one should read into Contreras not being traded is tough to tell, but it will have a tangible effect on his free agent market. He’s now eligible for the qualifying offer, which he’ll surely receive and reject. Any signing team will have to surrender a draft choice to bring him aboard, which wouldn’t have been the case if he were moved midseason, since players traded midseason are ineligible for a QO.
Regulars
- Christian Vázquez (32)
A longtime member of the Red Sox, Vázquez was dealt to the Astros midseason. He’s assumed more of a 1b/backup role there behind Martín Maldonado, but he was a regular in Boston and will likely be viewed as such by any team that signs him this offseason. Vázquez is a solid two-way catcher, an above-average defender who’s generally competent with the bat. He’s rated as a high-end pitch framer throughout his career, although his numbers have been roughly average the past two years. He’s typically solid at cutting down opposing base-stealers, and he’s drawn strong reviews for his game management and leadership in a clubhouse. Vázquez isn’t an impact hitter, but he puts the ball in play and consistently runs strong batting averages. His .275/.318/.396 line is about average overall but clearly above-average for a catcher, and he’s capable of holding his own at the bottom third of a lineup. Vázquez may not have a standout skill, but he’s a well-rounded player who’d be an upgrade for a fair number of teams.
- Omar Narváez (31)
Narváez has had an atypical career. He’s had individual seasons as a well above-average hitter, a quality left-handed bat with excellent plate discipline and strong contact skills. He earned a reputation as a bat-first player during his early days with the White Sox and Mariners, both because of his productivity at the dish and his dismal pitch framing marks behind it. Since being traded to Milwaukee heading into the 2020 season, Narváez has flipped the script. He’s rated as a dramatically better receiver — one of the sport’s best, in fact — but been a below-average hitter in two of three years. That includes 2022, where he’s stumbled to a .214/.301/.324 line with just four homers in 269 plate appearances. Narváez has shown the ability to be one of the league’s better catchers on both sides of the ball, just never at the same time.
- Austin Hedges (30)
Hedges has never hit, but he’s been a primary catcher in San Diego and Cleveland for the past half-decade based on his excellent glove. He’s an outstanding pitch framer who’s thrown out an above-average 30% of attempted basestealers for his career. The Guardians are among the league’s best teams at preventing runs, and they’ve trusted Hedges with guiding their talented pitching staffs for two-plus seasons. Among regulars, Hedges may be the least productive offensive player in MLB though. He’s hit below .180 for four straight years, not topping a .255 on-base percentage or a .315 slugging mark in any of those seasons. There’ll probably be teams willing to live with the lack of output at the plate because of Hedges’ defensive reputation, but he makes plenty of outs at the bottom of a lineup.
- Gary Sánchez (30)
Acquired from the Yankees to serve a hybrid catcher/DH role in Minnesota, Sánchez has gotten a fair bit of defensive work due to a Ryan Jeffers thumb fracture. He has an excellent arm but has been much maligned for his work as a receiver. Sánchez’s pitch framing metrics this season are a hair above-average, but he’s struggled in that regard in prior years and consistently has trouble blocking balls in the dirt. While he’s been alright for Minnesota defensively, he hasn’t lived up to his reputation as a bat-first player. He’s hitting .213/.279/.382 over 420 plate appearances, connecting on 14 home runs but struggling to reach base for a third consecutive season. Sánchez’s early-career days as an impact bat in the Bronx are now well in the rearview mirror, but he still offers more pop than most catchers.
- Tucker Barnhart (32)
The Tigers acquired Barnhart from the Reds at the start of last winter, believing they’d solidified a position of need with a respected veteran. Unfortunately for both Barnhart and Detroit, he’s posted the worst season of his career. Over 277 trips to the plate, he has only one homer and a .209/.274/.256 slash. Barnhart has always been a below-average hitter, but this year’s on-base and slugging marks are easily career lows. He’s a good defender who’s highly regarded for his ability to handle a pitching staff, a broadly similar player to Hedges but two years older and with a more solid than elite pitch framing track record.
- Mike Zunino (32)
Zunino has shown high-end potential at his best. Consistently excellent defense gives him a high floor, but he’s also shown more offensive upside than most of the glove-first players on the market. That includes a 2021 campaign in which he blasted 33 home runs and slugged .559. Even with a strikeout rate in excess of 35%, Zunino was a quality hitter and very valuable all-around player. Had he replicated his 2021 production, he’d likely have been the #2 catcher on the market this winter, but his 2022 campaign was a disaster. He hit .148/.195/.304 in only 36 games before being diagnosed with thoracic outlet syndrome that required season-ending surgery. He’s expected to be ready for Spring Training, but it’s tough to know what to make of a player coming off that kind of platform year.
- Roberto Pérez (34)
Pérez’s story isn’t too dissimilar from Zunino’s. A career-long regular, he was set to reprise that role in 2022 but had the year mostly wiped out by injury. In his case, it was a left hamstring strain that necessitated surgery. He played in just 21 games, his first season with the Pirates after a career spent in Cleveland. Pérez is a Gold Glove caliber defender at his best, but he’s typically been a well below-average hitter. He did connect on 24 homers in 2019, but he has a .171/.269/.295 mark in parts of three seasons since then.
Backups/Depth
- Robinson Chirinos (39)
Chirinos opened the season as Baltimore’s starting catcher, but he lost the job when Adley Rutschman was called up midseason. He struggled badly early on, and he carries only a .178/.266/.278 line over 204 plate appearances on the year. He’s consistently rated as a below-average receiving catcher.
- Kevin Plawecki (31)
Designated for assignment by the Red Sox last week, Plawecki finished his time in Boston with a disappointing .217/.287/.287 showing across 175 plate appearances. He’d hit well in limited action as Vázquez’s backup from 2020-21, but he’s been a below-average offensive player for the bulk of his career. He’s had a very tough time throwing out attempted basestealers, but he’s a capable receiver.
- Curt Casali (34)
A career-long #2 catcher, Casali brings a decent right-handed power bat to the bench. He strikes out a lot but offers a solid blend of plate discipline and power. Casali lost a chunk of this season to an oblique strain and has a .211/.310/.331 line between the Giants and Mariners. He’s typically slightly below-average at both controlling the run game and pitch framing.
- Kurt Suzuki (39)
Suzuki has 15 years of big league experience, including a good run as a regular. A productive bat-first catcher in his prime, he’s struggled for two straight seasons with the Angels. He carries a .179/.263/.299 line over 152 trips to the plate this year.
- Austin Romine (34)
Romine has split the 2022 campaign between three teams, suiting up with the Angels, Cardinals and Reds. He’s been a depth option at all three spots, and he owns just a .181/.211/.295 mark over 111 plate appearances. Romine was a productive backup for the Yankees early in his career, but he’s settled into journeyman status while struggling offensively since leaving New York.
- Sandy León (34)
Another glove-first journeyman, León had a very good 2016 season with the Red Sox but has otherwise been a well below-average hitter. He’s not hit above .200 or slugged north of .300 in any of the past five seasons. León has spent most of 2022 in Triple-A, but he’s appeared in 32 big league games with the Guardians and Twins.
- Jason Castro (35)
Castro was a solid regular for a while with the Astros and Twins, compensating for high strikeout totals with excellent walk rates and pitch framing marks. He had a productive 2021 season as a backup after returning to Houston on a free agent deal, but this year has been a disaster. Castro hit .115/.205/.179 over 34 games and eventually underwent season-ending surgery on his left knee. He told reporters in Spring Training he’d consider retirement after this season (link via Brian McTaggart of MLB.com). It remains to be seen how the disappointing trajectory of his 2022 campaign plays into that decision.
- Stephen Vogt (38)
The well-regarded Vogt returned to Oakland, where he’d been a productive fan favorite in the middle of the last decade, for the 2022 campaign. He’s bounced between catcher, first base and designated hitter but owns just a .168/.251/.315 line over 171 plate appearances. It’s his third consecutive well below-average season.
Note: Yadier Molina is playing on a one-year contract with the Cardinals and will technically qualify for free agency at season’s end. He’s already declared 2022 will be his final season, so he’s been excluded from this list in anticipation of his retirement.
* Listed ages are the player’s age for the 2023 season. All stats through play September 18.