MLBTR Originals

Jonathan Villar’s Second-Half Surge

By Steve Adams | September 27, 2019 at 1:38pm CDT

Jonathan Villar’s name was barely kicked around the rumor circuit prior to this year’s trade deadline, with the Cubs standing out as the only team reported to have shown much interest. That doesn’t mean that Villar wasn’t discussed with other clubs, of course. But when an affordable veteran ($4.825MM) with only one and a half seasons of control remaining on one of the game’s worst teams doesn’t change hands at the deadline, it’s likely that interest in him was generally tepid.

Really, there weren’t many infielders who changed hands at all on this year’s trade market. Jesus Aguilar, Scooter Gennett and Tony Kemp were traded largely for depth purposes. Prospects like Mauricio Dubon, Nick Solak and Josh Rojas were moved as hopeful long-term pieces. Among established middle infielders, Eric Sogard might’ve been the most consequential player traded. (Freddy Galvis later changed hands via August waiver claim.)

It stands to reason that not many teams were keen on making middle-infield upgrades, but that won’t be as true in the winter when all 29 other teams are taking a fresh look at their roster. And Villar has been nothing short of brilliant since the deadline passed, which certainly can’t hurt the Orioles’ chances of finding a team willing to part with some future in exchange for his final season of club control.

Villar, 29 next May, was already in the midst of a solid season in late July. On the morning of July 31, he carried a .266/.329/.425 batting line, 13 home runs and 23 steals on the season. For a middle infielder with ample experience at both positions — even if he’s not a great defender at either — that’s respectable output. Villar had a 98 wRC+ at that point, whereas the league-average second baseman was at 93. Essentially, Villar had been about five percent better than an average-hitting second baseman and about two percent worse than an average shortstop (100 wRC+ in 2019).

Since that time? Villar has improved across the board. He’s hitting .295/.364/.524 with 11 homers, nine doubles, three triples and 16 stolen bases (in 19 tries). Villar has punched out a slight bit more over the season’s final two months, but his overall strikeout rate on the season (24.9 percent) has improved for the second straight year since his career-worst 30.3 percent in 2017. His average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and launch angle are all below average but have all improved for the second straight season. And while Villar isn’t the burner one might expect for someone with his stolen-base totals, he’s been highly efficient across the past two seasons, going 74-of-88 in that regard (84.1 percent).

Thanks to the strength of his second half, Villar’s offensive output (108 wRC+) now checks in 15 percent better than the average second baseman and eight percent better than the average shortstop. Like many switch-hitters, he’s been better from one side of the plate (116 wRC+ as a lefty, 94 as a righty), but he hasn’t been completely overmatched regardless of which batter’s box he stands.

Villar earned $4.825MM in 2019, and he’ll take home a solid raise on that sum thanks to his workload (159 games, 700 plate appearances at the moment) and his career-best counting stats. But even if Villar matches the 89 percent raise he received in arbitration last year, his salary will still clock in at about $9.125MM. Compare him, at that rate, to the rest of the rest of the free-agent class, and Villar looks like a sound one-year pickup before qualifying as a free agent himself next winter. That’s nearly the same price at which Brian Dozier ($9MM) signed with the Nationals this past winter after an off year and only slightly more than Jonathan Schoop ($7.5MM) received from the Twins. Villar’s four wins above replacement (4.0 bWAR, 3.9 fWAR) outweigh that pair of veterans combined.

This could be a peak year for Villar, but he’s now been worth at least two wins in three of the past four seasons, making his 2017 flop with the Brewers look more and more like an outlier. The free-agent market at shortstop has a pretty intriguing rebound candidate in Didi Gregorius and a defensive stalwart in Jose Iglesias. Dozier, Schoop and perhaps Mike Moustakas will headline the options on the other side of the bag. It’s not an elite class.

Villar may not be elite himself, but he’s a solid regular player who’ll come with an affordable price tag. The Orioles aren’t going to receive a king’s ransom for him by any means, but he’s also someone who should command a decent prospect or two in return. In retrospect, some team probably should’ve paid that price back in July.

Examining A Potential Jorge Soler Extension

By Steve Adams | September 27, 2019 at 10:28am CDT

While it’s been a tough season for the Royals as a team, Jorge Soler has emerged as a bright spot in the heart of the lineup, hitting .262/.352/.555 with 45 home runs in a career-high 668 plate appearances. Long one of the game’s top hitting prospects, the now-27-year-old Soler (28 in February) has finally displayed the enormous raw power that garnered so much praise as a minor leaguer. Kansas City still controls Soler through 2021, but MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan writes in his latest Royals inbox column that he’s “convinced” the team will offer Soler an extension this winter.

Soler’s current contractual status is a bit unique, as he signed a nine-year, $30MM contract with the Cubs back in 2012 when he was just 20 years old. International free agency wasn’t nearly as restricted then as it is now — under current rules, he’d have been limited to a minor league deal and likely garnered a signing bonus worth less than a quarter of that guarantee — and the Cubs committed both a lengthy term and sizable guarantee despite knowing he’d need to log time in the minors.

Soler is “signed” for the 2020 season at just $4MM, but he can opt out of that guaranteed salary and into MLB’s arbitration process this winter, as is the case with many Cuban defectors who signed Major League deals under the previous international free agency infrastructure. Based on his 45-homer campaign, he’s a lock to do just that. Arbitration raises for international players who opt out of this type of arrangement haven’t always been as steep as one might expect, but Soler will clearly top a $4MM salary. And since he’d be arb-eligible again in 2021, his salary for that season would be dependent on the size of the raise he gets in arbitration this winter.

All of that would be rendered moot in the event of a new long-term arrangement, though. Soler and the Royals will surely be talking contract when arbitration figures are exchanged in January, and that seems like a reasonable point at which the two sides could avoid a particularly tricky arbitration case with a multi-year arrangement. If not then, Spring Training extensions are commonplace.

There’s good reason for both parties to be amenable to a deal. Soler has banked a substantial sum in his career already but has yet to lock in a multi-year deal that pays him anywhere near open-market prices. The Royals, meanwhile, are aiming for a return to contention in 2021, and losing their top slugger at the end of that season would be a step backward. Soler is currently on track to become a free agent in advance of his age-30 season, so the Royals would be acquiring some additional prime years in a theoretical long-term deal.

The price of Soler’s would-be free-agent seasons is up for debate. Nelson Cruz has played each of the past five seasons (2019 included) for an annual rate around $14.25MM. He was considerably older than Soler when he signed a four-year, $57MM deal with the Mariners and his most recent one year, $14.3MM deal with the Twins. Edwin Encarnacion secured a $20MM annual rate in his three-year deal with the Indians — a contract that began with his age-33 season. Both right-handed sluggers had considerably longer track records of productivity than does Soler when they signed their contracts, though, and both had the benefit of an open-market setting. Soler didn’t even log a full big league season with Kansas City in either 2017 or 2018, posting a combined .228/.322/.403 batting line through 367 plate appearances across those two years.

Any power hitter’s production in 2019 is also going to be met with some skepticism as a result of this year’s explosive ball. That’s not to say the Royals should expect Soler to turn into a pumpkin when the clock strikes midnight on the 2019 season, but they’d be justified in pondering to what extent his power might scale back if the 2020 ball is more in line with previous seasons.

The length of an extension, of course, will be the other key part of the debate. Recent extensions for players with between four and five years of service time include Randal Grichuk and Jean Segura, both of whom signed away three free-agent seasons in addition to their remaining two arbitration years. Segura’s deal included an option for another year. In the case of Soler, who has a limited track record and notable injury history, a contract that exceeds five seasons in length seems like a reach. A total of five guaranteed years seems attainable.

Perhaps the biggest wild card in forecasting a possible extension value for Soler lies in the how his arbitration seasons are valued. As we saw with Jose Abreu, Yasiel Puig and others, this type of contract is handled atypically in arbitration. Abreu hit .293/.353/.468 with 25 home runs the year before he opted into arbitration, and his salary only rose from $10MM to $10.825MM. A year later, he received a raise barely north of $2MM after posting an outstanding .304/.354/.552 slash with 33 homers. Puig, meanwhile, opted into arbitration last winter when he reached five-plus years of service time and, working from a smaller 2018 base salary of $6.5MM, jumped up to $9.7MM. He’d have earned $7.5MM had he stuck with his initial contract.

Depending on how Soler’s arbitration seasons are valued, Grichuk’s five-year, $52MM contract could be a particularly relevant comparison. They’re different types of players, of course, but their final two arb seasons could fall within the same ballpark. The roughly $13MM annual rate at which Grichuk’s free-agent seasons were valued in his extension could also be a point of reference Soler’s camp seeks to top; doing so would put him in Cruz territory for the average annual value of his free-agent seasons. I’d imagine Soler would do a bit better than Grichuk in terms of overall guarantee, but something in that general vicinity seems like a plausible landing point for the burgeoning slugger.

Three Needs: Philadelphia Phillies

By Connor Byrne | September 26, 2019 at 11:26pm CDT

We’re continuing with our “Three Needs” series, in which we take a look at the chief issues to be addressed for clubs that have fallen out of contention. We’ve already focused on the Mariners, Tigers, White Sox, Marlins, Rangers, Pirates, Angels and Royals. Now we’re focusing on the Phillies, whose ultra-aggressive 2018-19 offseason didn’t yield the type of results they wanted this year. The club has now gone eight straight seasons without a playoff berth, and its mediocrity over the past two years may well cost manager Gabe Kapler his job. Regardless of what happens with Kapler, general manager Matt Klentak obviously has quite a bit of work to do with the club’s roster this winter. Let’s take a look at a few areas he could address…

[Philadelphia Phillies Depth Chart]

1. Repair The Rotation

The Phillies’ weak rotation is one of the obvious reasons for the team’s demise this year. Aside from Aaron Nola, the club hasn’t received particularly strong production from any of the starters it has relied on in 2019. Looking ahead, Nola, the disappointing Jake Arrieta and Zach Eflin are either locks or solid bets to occupy rotation spots in 2020, while high-end prospect Spencer Howard could stake a claim to one at some point. Jason Vargas is controllable next year by way of a club option worth $8MM, but the Phillies could instead buy the deadline acquisition out for $2MM after his below-average second-half performance. If that happens, and if the Phillies don’t want to rely on the other shaky in-house options who have failed them this season (Vince Velasquez and Nick Pivetta, to name a couple), they figure to search elsewhere for help.

The Phillies just allocated an enormous amount of money to their position player cast a year ago, including $330MM on outfielder Bryce Harper, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see owner John Middleton authorize major spending on their rotation during the upcoming offseason. Baseball’s premier pending free agent, Astros right-hander Gerrit Cole, looks like a potential target – one who could cost in the $200MM range or more. Madison Bumgarner, Zack Wheeler, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Dallas Keuchel, Jake Odorizzi, Kyle Gibson and old friend Cole Hamels make for several other soon-to-be free agents who’d help the Phillies’ cause.

2. Upgrade The Bullpen

The Phillies have made multiple ill-fated bullpen signings over the past couple offseasons. They’ve gotten little to nothing from Pat Neshek and Tommy Hunter during their soon-to-expire two-year guarantees, while the same will wind up applying to David Robertson. The team awarded the normally durable and excellent Robertson $23MM over two years last winter, but he only threw a handful of innings this season before succumbing to Tommy John surgery in August. As a result of that procedure, Robertson probably won’t pitch in 2020.

While the Phillies have struck out on relief acquisitions lately, that doesn’t mean they should stop trying. It’s obvious their relief corps is in need of aid heading into the offseason, especially with Juan Nicasio (who’s third among their relievers in innings) and Nick Vincent (who has performed well since signing in August) due to hit free agency. Hector Neris, Jose Alvarez and Ranger Suarez comprise the team’s only relievers who have been effective over a solid sample of innings this year, and all three figure to be back in 2020. Philadelphia will also hope for healthy bounce-back seasons from Seranthony Dominguez, Edubray Ramos, Victor Arano and Adam Morgan, who entered this year looking like building blocks but have since endured disappointing, injury-laden campaigns.

That’s not a group devoid of promise, but it’s also loaded with risk. So, expect the team to continue attempting to bolster its bullpen with more established arms in the offseason, when Will Smith, Aroldis Chapman (if he opts out of his Yankees deal), Will Harris, Chris Martin, Dellin Betances and Drew Pomeranz are among those who could hit the open market.

3. Lock Up J.T. Realmuto

Last offseason’s acquisition of Realmuto has been hugely success for Philly, which saw the 28-year-old continue as the game’s foremost catcher in 2019. While Realmuto is sure to remain a Phillie next year, which will be his final season of arbitration eligibility, his future’s murkier thereafter. Both Realmuto and the Phillies have made it known they’d like to continue their relationship for the foreseeable future, though, making him one of baseball’s prime extension candidates going into the winter. Having traded two quality pitching prospects – including the excellent Sixto Sanchez – as well as major league catcher Jorge Alfaro for short-term control over Realmuto last offseason, the Phillies will be all the more motivated to prevent the star backstop from entering next year without a long-term deal in place.

Three Needs: Kansas City Royals

By Jeff Todd | September 26, 2019 at 7:30am CDT

We’re continuing with our “Three Needs” series, in which we take a look at the chief issues to be addressed for clubs that have fallen out of contention. We’ve already focused on the Mariners, Tigers, White Sox, Marlins, Rangers, Pirates, and Angels. Now we’re going to Kansas City to check in on a Royals team that just cracked 100 losses for the second-consecutive season — an ignominious feat they last accomplished in 2005-2006.

[Kansas City Royals Depth Chart]

1. Auction Off Whit Merrifield

You never want to move a guy like this. But he’s closing in on his 31st birthday and showed a slight but noticeable downtick in the speed department last year, dropping from his 95th percentile highpoint to the 85.6th percentile in sprint speed. That’s still quite good, but the difference showed up in the results: Merrifield was successful on just 19 of 29 stolen base attempts a year after swiping 45 and generated 1.2 runs on the bases after tabbing 7.4 in 2018.

We’re not pulling the fire alarm on Merrifield. Even if he’s merely a really good but sub-elite baserunner, he’s one of the game’s steadiest high-average hitters and continues to show solid pop. And while the metrics waffled a bit on the glovework, Merrifield still carries a track record of quality defensive play along with immense versatility.

Add it all up, and … did we mention the Royals just lost 100 games for the second time in a row? Merrifield is a heck of a useful player on a nice contract. He’d basically fit on any team in baseball and might be a real difference-maker in the right situation. Everything about Merrifield’s profile screams for him to be sent to a contender. Keeping him is a luxury the Royals can’t afford.

2. Pursue Extensions, But Don’t Over-Extend

The core reason the Royals ought to move Merrifield is that a low-revenue team only has so many opportunities to achieve value and swing above its spending weight. Those must be maximized, particularly when the team is in a rebuilding phase. The same reasoning supports the pursuit of offseason extension negotiations — with some players, and to a point.

Why the cautionary references? Because a team in this situation must maintain some serious future-looking spending discipline and focus primarily on improving its asset base rather than on avoiding the eventual departure of guys it likes.

Convincing slugger Jorge Soler to commit into his thirties seems unnecessarily risky, even if he just enjoyed a nice campaign. Righty Brad Keller might be worth inking at the right price after another good season in terms of results, but the landmine detectors (5.24 SIERA, for example) are flashing red. A long-term arrangement with Adalberto Mondesi or even Hunter Dozier could deliver huge upside, and certainly ought to be considered, but the organization should pull hard on its leverage given the ongoing uncertainty with those players.

3. Chase Some Upside In A Free Agent Signing

There are lots of problems on the Royals roster. How could there not be? It doesn’t matter so much where the team decides to add — first base, middle infield, outfield, pitching of all varieties — as that it does so boldly. At least, it’s worth a serious attempt. Having already endured the bulk of the payroll hangover from the team’s recent run of success, there’s some payroll space to play with.

Last year, the organization inked one-year deals with Billy Hamilton, Chris Owings, Jake Diekman, Brad Boxberger, Terrance Gore, and Kyle Zimmer. Those signings more or less flopped completely, though such is life when it comes to this kind of dealmaking. It was generally a defensible group of signings, including some younger players who had shown real talent in the past along with easily flippable veteran relievers.

Continuing to make those kinds of signings is sensible, when the opportunities are there. But why not also ramp up the risk factor just a bit on a multi-year deal? Yasiel Puig, Avisail Garcia, and Corey Dickerson are interesting corner outfield targets; Alex Wood and Michael Wacha might like pitching in Kauffman. If any of those players struggle to find adequate arrangements elsewhere, they could be bailed out with a deal that spans multiple campaigns at a low-ish AAV — thus increasing the future trade value in the event that the anticipated bounceback comes to pass. With most of the market preferring to spend more for less years, there could be opportunities to swim against the tide and acquire somewhat higher-ceiling talent.

Eric Hosmer’s 2019: More Of The Same

By Connor Byrne | September 25, 2019 at 9:35pm CDT

Clearly dissatisfied with yet another season well below the .500 mark, the Padres fired manager Andy Green last weekend. It didn’t come off as an unreasonable decision by the Padres, who didn’t make real progress in the standings in four years under Green (albeit during a rebuild) and who’d surely like to turn around their fortunes in 2020.

Green may have deserved his fate, but it’s difficult to lay all the blame at his feet when the club’s highest-paid players haven’t pulled their weight over the past couple years. Third baseman/shortstop Manny Machado, whom general manager A.J. Preller and the Padres stunningly reeled in for $300MM, has been good but not great in the first season of his 10-year contract. Outfielder Wil Myers received a six-year, $83MM extension after a career season in 2016, but his production has declined to a noticeable extent since. And then there’s first baseman Eric Hosmer, whose contract looks like the most regrettable of the three.

Even though they obviously weren’t going to contend in 2018, and even though there weren’t a lot of clear suitors for him, the Padres handed Hosmer an eight-year, $144MM guarantee prior to that season. At the time, it seemed you either loved the Padres’ bold choice or you hated it. To be sure, Hosmer had his high points as a Royal from 2011-17 – a span in which he helped the team to a pair of AL pennants, won a World Series, picked up an All-Star nod and took home four Gold Gloves. Along the way, the well-regarded Hosmer became one of the faces of baseball for the many who place a great deal of value on intangibles.

On the other hand, Hosmer was far from a consistent producer as a Royal. While Hosmer put up two seasons of 3.5 fWAR or better with the Royals, the other campaigns weren’t nearly as successful. Hosmer posted two years in the negatives in that category while a member of the Royals, and unfortunately for the Padres, that’s the version they’ve gotten since awarding him his payday.

Hosmer began his Padres career with a whimper in 2018, hitting .253/.322/.398 in 677 plate appearances. He managed minus-0.1 fWAR in the process, thanks in large part to his subpar batting line. Hosmer’s wRC+ (95) fell a good distance below the league average of 105 for his position.

This season has been more of the same for Hosmer. With less than a week to go, the soon-to-be 30-year-old has accounted for minus-0.2 fWAR and hit .271/.317/.430 in 649 trips to the plate. Hosmer’s OPS is better than it was a year ago, but his wRC+ (95) hasn’t improved (league average for first basemen in 2019 is 106). That isn’t where the similarities in output end, though, as you’ll see below…

Home runs – 2018: 18; 2019: 21
Isolated power – 2018: .145; 2019: .159
Weighted-on base average – 2018: .309; 2019: .315
Expected wOBA – 2018 – .310; 2019: .318

Hosmer has taken a somewhat different path in arriving at his near-identical production in 2019. He’s swinging a bit more, striking out more, walking less and making less contact. When Hosmer has made contact, he has hit more liners and fly balls, though his launch angle (minus-1.2 in 2018, plus-2.4 this year) remains extraordinarily low. In an era where more and more hitters have focused on elevating the ball (and in what many suspect is a juiced ball era), grounders continue to win the day for Hosmer. While his GB rate (55.9) has fallen by almost 5 percent since 2018, it’s nonetheless the second-highest figure among all qualified hitters.

Hosmer’s struggles putting the ball in the air have somewhat offset the gains he has made in the hard-contact department. He ranks in the league’s 78th percentile in average exit velocity (90.6) and its 87th percentile in hard-hit percentage (45.9), according to Statcast. But a well-struck grounder still typically leads to an out, and it doesn’t help matters that Hosmer’s lacking speed (this could be his first zero-steal season).

A quarter of the way into his expensive union with the Padres, it would be difficult to classify Hosmer’s San Diego tenure as anything other than a disappointment. Hosmer will still be entrenched in the club’s lineup going into 2020, but the Padres are likely going to need far more from their big-money first baseman if they’re going to make a noticeable jump in the standings.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Three Needs: Los Angeles Angels

By Connor Byrne | September 25, 2019 at 7:46pm CDT

We’re continuing with our “Three Needs” series, in which we take a look at the chief issues to be addressed for clubs that have fallen out of contention. We’ve already focused on the Mariners, Tigers, White Sox, Marlins, Rangers and Pirates. Now we’ll turn to the Angels. Despite the presence of the transcendent Mike Trout, they’ve posted their fifth straight non-playoff season and their fourth sub-.500 campaign in a row during what has been a year filled with adversity.

[Los Angeles Angels Depth Chart]

1. Pour Significant Resources Into The Rotation

Let’s be fair to the Angels right off the bat: Their rotation (and their franchise as a whole) is still reeling from the passing of left-hander Tyler Skaggs back in July. Not only was Skaggs a beloved teammate to those on the club, but he was one of the Angels’ top pitchers. That’s an irreplaceable combination, though the Angels have no choice but to carry on and try to improve their starting staff heading into 2020.

The good news for the Angels is that two-way phenom Shohei Ohtani should return to the mound next year. He threw just over 50 innings as a rookie in 2018 and then couldn’t pitch at all this season as a result of Tommy John surgery. Ohtani recently underwent another procedure – a left knee operation – but it shouldn’t prevent him from rejoining the Angels’ rotation at the beginning of the season. The flamethrowing Ohtani, Andrew Heaney and Griffin Canning (who enjoyed a respectable rookie season, albeit one that ended in August because of elbow issues) give the Halos’ starting staff at least a few legitimate reasons for hope heading into 2020. It’s harder to find obvious causes for optimism otherwise, though, evidenced in part by the AL-worst ERA and fWAR Angels starters have recorded this year.

In clear need of starters, the Angels figure to aggressively target help during the offseason. General manager Billy Eppler already spoke on the upcoming free-agent starter market back in August, saying, “I’m sure we’ll be sitting with [free agents] and seeing if something can be worked out.” Furthermore, although the Angels haven’t won any recent high-priced bidding wars for starters, Eppler didn’t close the door on bucking that trend.

So … enter Gerrit Cole? Not necessarily, but the Houston Cy Young candidate, Southern California native and pending free agent looks like a plausible target for the Angels. While the 29-year-old Cole could command $200MM–plus on his upcoming contract, the Angels have shown a willingness to make sizable long-term commitments under owner Arte Moreno (deals for Trout, Albert Pujols, Josh Hamilton and Justin Upton spring to mind). And Cole would give the Angels’ injury-laden, underperforming rotation something it desperately needs: a workhorse ace who can provide 200 innings of top-line production.

It doesn’t have to be Cole or bust for the Angels, though he should be the franchise’s No. 1 target going into the offseason. If they can’t get him, though, there will be other worthy starters available in free agency. Stephen Strasburg (if he opts out of his Nationals deal), Madison Bumgarner, Zack Wheeler, Dallas Keuchel (whom the Angels pursued last winter), Jake Odorizzi and Kyle Gibson represent several other possibilities. The Angels could also explore a trade(s), but whether Eppler will want to make notable subtractions from a farm system he has focused on improving over the past few years remains to be seen. Either way, the Angels have to perform far better than they did in free agency a year ago, when they spent a combined $20MM on one-year contracts for starters Matt Harvey and Trevor Cahill. Those pacts proved to be miserable failures for the team.

2. Upgrade Behind The Plate

The Angels went the one-year deal route to try to bolster their rotation last winter, and they did the same behind the plate. But the $3.35MM guarantee for Jonathan Lucroy went down as yet another regrettable move, as he struggled before the club released him in August. Lucroy, Max Stassi (who needs hip surgery), Anthony Bemboom, Kevan Smith and Dustin Garneau (who, like Lucroy, is out of the organization) have combined for negative-0.4 fWAR this year, making the Angels just one of five teams whose backstops have registered a minus number in that category.

It’s time for the Halos do better at the position. To their credit, the Angels at least made an attempt last offseason, courting the likes of Yasmani Grandal and Wilson Ramos before those two went elsewhere. Grandal will be back on the market this winter, but the Brewer should do a lot better than the one-year, $18MM-plus guarantee he raked in during his previous stay in free agency. Would the Angels make such a commitment? It could depend on how much they dole out on starting help. There’s only so much money to go around, after all.

Free-agent options beyond Grandal are much less enticing. However, the likes of Jason Castro, Travis d’Arnaud and Robinson Chirinos could be upgrades over the catchers the Angels have leaned on this year. And Yankees backup Austin Romine might be a name to watch as a soon-to-be free agent who shouldn’t cost much. Eppler was in New York’s front office for the early stages of Romine’s major league career.

3. Determine Kole Calhoun’s Future

The Angels are facing a tough decision on Calhoun, a career-long Angel who has been with the franchise since it spent an eighth-round pick on him in 2010. Now 31, Calhoun has evolved into a defensive standout who also offers capable offense. He has been solid in both regards this year en route to his fifth season with at least 2.0 fWAR, but that doesn’t mean the Angels will welcome him back in 2020. They could pick up Calhoun’s option for $14MM or buy him out for $1MM. For an Angels team with major issues to address elsewhere, it may be tempting to wave goodbye to Calhoun and spend the $13MM they’d save on him to address other areas of the roster. The club has a potential short-term replacement on hand in Brian Goodwin, who could occupy right field until super prospect Jo Adell is ready for a promotion next season.

Three Needs: Pittsburgh Pirates

By Jeff Todd | September 25, 2019 at 7:34am CDT

We’re continuing with our “Three Needs” series, in which we take a look at the chief issues to be addressed for clubs that have fallen out of contention. We’ve already focused on the Mariners, Tigers, White Sox, Marlins, and Rangers. Now we’ll cover the Pirates, who entered the All-Star break 2.5 games off of the pace in the NL Central before enduring a calamitous second half.

[Pittsburgh Pirates Depth Chart]

1. Market Starling Marte

The appropriate path depends to no small extent upon the market’s appetite for the Pirates’ assets. But it’s time to strongly pursue a sell-side approach to the winter after dabbling and pulling back this summer. That begins with Marte, the team’s excellent center fielder.

True, there isn’t a single standout team in the division, so it’s open to competition. The Pirates still have a good bit of MLB talent and perhaps some room to add salary. But the roster situation is not good. Top starter Jameson Taillon is going to miss most or all of the 2020 campaign. If the despicable allegations against closer Felipe Vazquez can be proven in court, he’ll deservedly spend the next few years in prison rather than pitching. There’s no spending out of this malaise for an organization that hasn’t topped $100MM in Opening Day payroll and opened this season at just $75MM.

Marte stands out as a marketable asset that could bring a strong return that will help this team find its way back to respectability. It’s hard to see a path within the next two seasons, after which he’ll be a free agent. And he’s no longer extremely cheap. But two option years that add up to just $24MM is still a relative bargain for a high-quality regular who is still 31 years of age. That’s especially true given that the upcoming free agent market is lean on center fielders.

2. Re-Think The Rotation

The Pirates have a fair amount of interesting infield and outfield talent at and near the MLB level. Plenty of questions remain to be answered, but that’s just how it goes with young players and low-revenue teams. Even if Marte is sent elsewhere, the club can mostly feel good about rolling with internal options with some affordable supplementation in the lineup.

It’s a different situation on the pitching side of things, especially in the rotation. Mitch Keller could yet be a future ace, and he showed intriguing K/BB numbers this year, but there’s plenty to iron out. Joe Musgrove had a nice year and might form a useful mid-rotation pairing with Trevor Williams if the latter can re-learn how to limit the long ball. Chris Archer … well, who knows, but the team probably can’t give up on him just yet.

Perhaps there’s an argument to be made for the Pirates mostly to remain internal with the staff. But even then, there’s room to add arms. If the Bucs move some Marte and a few others — Keone Kela would be the next-most-obvious candidate — then there’ll be loads of payroll space to work with. Investing in some intriguing bounceback arms could pay big dividends.

Regardless, the Pittsburgh organization needs to go back to the drawing board on its approach. There was a time not long ago when it was extracting big value from limited spending, but the formula isn’t working. (See here for a nice recent breakdown of the situation.) The league has adjusted, clearly, as the Pirates ended the season with a putrid 5.46 collective starter ERA (and that’s including Taillon). We’ve seen a historic barrage of home runs and rather drastic changes in pitching approaches. Such change inherently creates new opportunities for adjustment in the ever-evolving cat-and-mouse game pitchers and hitters. Your move, Bucs.

3. Seek A New Core Catcher

With Francisco Cervelli leaving town, the Bucs need to try to find a replacement. Elias Diaz has had an exceedingly rough season by more or less every measure, with a 61 wRC+ and brutal framing numbers. Jacob Stallings had a much more solid campaign, though the 29-year-old has never before been trusted with a significant role.

It seems fair to presume that one or both of those incumbents will fill innings usefully in 2020. But it’d be disappointing to rely on them as a duo for another full season. Given the pitching turmoil, it’s especially important to have a steadying presence behind the dish. And this could even be an area the Pirates can look to for some upside.

It’s hard to pry loose good, young catchers. But there could be some possibilities. Austin Hedges stands out as a target. He may never fully come around with the bat, but is by any measure a top-flight defender. There’s little reason to think the club will have a shot at top free agent Yasmani Grandal. But Travis d’Arnaud would be an interesting player to take a bit of a risk on with a longer contract. And there are loads of respected veterans out there if a bigger strike can’t be found, including some bounceback candidates such as Yan Gomes (if the Nats don’t pick up his option).

Three Needs: Texas Rangers

By Connor Byrne | September 24, 2019 at 8:13pm CDT

We’re bringing back our “Three Needs” series, in which we take a look at the chief issues to be addressed for clubs that have fallen out of contention. We’ve already focused on the Mariners, Tigers, White Sox and Marlins. Now we’re on to the Rangers, who surprisingly hung in playoff contention for the season’s first few months. Reality has set in as the year has progressed, though, leaving Texas on track for its third consecutive sub-.500 season. With a new ballpark opening in 2020, Rangers general manager Jon Daniels could oversee an aggressive winter in an effort to get the club back to being a legitimate playoff contender. We already argued that upgrading at catcher should be on Daniels’ offseason to-do list, so we’ll leave that position out of this piece and focus on other areas Daniels could address in the next several months…

[Texas Rangers Depth Chart]

1. Consider Major Changes In The Infield

Arguably no team in the league has been worse off in the infield than the Rangers, whose first, second, third basemen and shortstops have combined for a paltry 2.5 fWAR. Utilityman Danny Santana and second/third baseman Nick Solak, an August call-up, are the only members of the group who have posted above-average offensive numbers. Although Santana’s numbers have dramatically plummeted over the season’s final couple months, he could again play an important multi-positional role for the Rangers in 2020. And Solak, whom the Rangers acquired back in June, is probably someone they will count on for plenty of at-bats next season. Things aren’t as promising otherwise, though, as Ronald Guzman has been one of the game’s worst offensive first basemen for the second straight year, and the well-compensated double-play tandem of second baseman Rougned Odor and shortstop Elvis Andrus has fallen flat.

Texas brass has made its disappointment with the production of Guzman (whom the club optioned earlier in the summer), Odor and Andrus known this year, which could suggest the team will try to upgrade at those spots. The contracts of Odor and Andrus are problematic, however, with the former still owed $36MM through 2022 and the latter under wraps for the same period of time for $43MM.

At the very least, Andrus figures to return as the Rangers’ main shortstop next year, though it doesn’t appear the team’s inclined to hand him a starting spot. How the Rangers handle the rest of their infield could depend in part on where they expect Santana and Solak to primarily line up. Either may spend a lot of time at third, but the Rangers could reportedly prioritize the position in the offseason, meaning it’s possible they’ll attempt to reel in a big fish via free agency. The top free agent-to-be at the position, Nationals MVP candidate Anthony Rendon, happens to be from Texas. That could give the Rangers a bit of an edge in courting him. He’ll likely command a contract worth $150MM or more, though. If that’s too rich for the Rangers’ blood, fellow pending free agents Josh Donaldson and Mike Moustakas would provide upgrades for the club at more palatable prices. The free-agent lists at first and second base are decidedly less exciting, but the Rangers shouldn’t have to spend a ton of money at either position to get better production in 2020 than the weak output they’ve received from those places this season.

2. Find Some Complements To Lance Lynn And Extension Candidate Mike Minor

The Rangers’ starting staff ranks a solid 10th in the majors in fWAR (11.7), but almost that entire total (10.4) has come from two pitchers: Lynn and Minor. Daniels struck gold in free agency on that pair, adding Lynn on a three-year, $30MM guarantee last offseason and Minor for three years and $28MM going into 2018. The Rangers’ rotation will need at least one more pickup along those lines during the upcoming winter, as the unit doesn’t offer much beyond Lynn, Minor and the 22-year-old Kolby Allard – an in-season acquisition who has performed adequately over eight starts.

Baseball’s best pending free agent, Astros righty and potential AL Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole, may well land on the Rangers’ radar. But the Rangers will be among a slew of other teams in on Cole if they enter that race, which could culminate in a $200MM-plus contract for him. Daniels showed with the Lynn and Minor signings that he doesn’t necessarily have to back up the Brink’s trick to find front-line starter production in free agency, and with those two around, maybe the Rangers will focus more on mid- to back-end rotation pieces than a ridiculously expensive ace like Cole. Either way, they could work to extend Minor, who’s under contract for just one more year. Trading Minor looked like a possibility as recently as July, but the Rangers opted against it. Perhaps they’ll revisit that possibility in the offseason, though they’ll certainly be hard-pressed to push for a playoff spot next season if they deal Minor prior to then.

3. Explore A Joey Gallo Extension

Injuries have been a problem over the past few months for Gallo, who fractured his right hamate bone July 23 and hasn’t played since. However, when he has taken the field this season, Gallo has performed like a franchise-caliber position player. While the 25-year-old’s penchant for striking out has continued in 2019, he has nonetheless slashed .253/.389/.598 (144 wRC+) with 22 home runs and 3.3 fWAR in 297 trips to the plate. Defensively, Gallo has graded as a plus player in both left and center field.

Gallo’s high-end production this season has come at a minimal salary, but those days are about to end for the soon-to-be arbitration-eligible slugger. Texas can still control him for three more years even if it doesn’t extend him, but the club should arguably try to lock him up now off an injury-plagued season. Granted, considering Gallo’s a Scott Boras client, doing so wouldn’t be easy. Back in May, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News posited it could take a seven-year, $150MM offer to extend Gallo, though that was before injuries knocked his season off track. In any case, if the Rangers are convinced Gallo’s a true organizational centerpiece, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them attempt to sign him for the long haul.

Poll: Should The Mets Replace Mickey Callaway This Fall?

By Jeff Todd | September 24, 2019 at 12:55pm CDT

Mets manager Mickey Callaway has been on a warm seat for a good bit of his tenure. The temperature has gone up and down at various points, but has never fully cooled — even as GM Brodie Van Wagenen offered near-term support for the skipper. After a disappointing season featuring good-but-not-great results following significant roster investments, should the team move on?

When we asked back in June whether the Mets should dump Callaway in the middle of the season, two-thirds of respondents were in favor. The club sank further from that point but then bounced back and will likely finish the season with a winning record. But the postseason won’t happen barring a total miracle. (Current odds, per Fangraphs: 0.3%.)

It’s awfully difficult to blame Callaway entirely for the way things have gone. Injuries and lack of roster depth in key areas have hurt. Not all of the baseball operations decisions have worked out as hoped. The bullpen has been a mess beyond Callaway’s control, even if his management of it hasn’t always been optimal. He has at least held things together through an undeniably difficult stretch. And he’s already under contract for 2020 with an option for another season.

On the other hand, Callaway has now been at the helm for a pair of seasons without a postseason appearance to show for it. He wasn’t hired by Van Wagenen, for what that’s worth. There’s year-to-year improvement in terms of wins and losses, but it’s also fair to wonder whether the overall mix is one that will allow the Mets to break through in a tough division. Roster maximization is always the key, but there’s an argument that a makeover in the dugout leadership would be a sensible accompaniment for some other offseason changes — if only to instill a sense of urgency. There are some venerable former managers out there in search of new gigs, with more potentially soon to join them.

In the unlikely event that the Mets somehow sneak into a Wild Card spot, it seems fair to presume that Callaway will be safe. But if the season ends in the manner it’s likely to — nice try, but falling short — what ought the organization do? (Poll link for app users.)

Should the Mets replace Mickey Callaway this winter?

Yes 71.69% (8,187 votes)

No 28.31% (3,233 votes)

Total Votes: 11,420

Three Needs: Miami Marlins

By Jeff Todd | September 23, 2019 at 8:36pm CDT

[Miami Marlins Depth Chart]

1. Give Away Fewer Corner OF/IF Plate Appearances

The Marlins are not good, and that’s not surprising. There wasn’t a path to being good in 2019 and there isn’t a path to being good in 2020, either. But that doesn’t mean the team ought to be plugging in replacement-level, low-ceiling players — especially in areas of the field where there’s opportunity.

There’s value in having some veteran clubhouse members and perhaps also in rewarding some hustling, marginal major leaguers. But the Marlins need to be maxing out their opportunities to dig up interesting talent and develop their own players. And in 2019, they dedicated a few too many outfield and corner infield plate appearances to less-than-promising players.

The Marlins did give chances to potentially interesting late-bloomers Garrett Cooper and Harold Ramirez with generally middling results. But it’d be nice to see the organization take chances on more and younger players with so many possibilities flying around the waiver wire. No doubt there are some underappreciated bats out there just waiting for an opportunity. In 2019, the Fish have handed over a thousand total plate appearances at corner positions to Neil Walker, Curtis Granderson, Martin Prado, Isaac Galloway, and Peter O’Brien.

2. Chase Upside With Extensions

We know the Marlins are willing to do multi-year deals with existing players since they just inked one with shortstop Miguel Rojas. But that was more about locking in a solid, internally valued veteran for a brief stretch than it was the pursuit of a value-laden contract with a young talent.

Not every rebuilding team is in a position to consider lengthy pacts with young players. The Marlins are. They’ve surely seen enough good things from Brian Anderson to pursue a deal. There’s a strong argument for talking with Jorge Alfaro, who’s also entering his final winter before arbitration. On the pitching side, Caleb Smith and Sandy Alcantara are interesting targets.

It might seem premature to begin committing future payroll space when the Marlins still don’t know when they’ll be able to compete again. But this isn’t just (or even primarily) about locking in pieces for this organization. It’s about attempting to make good assets even better ones — even if that entails some risk — whether for a future Miami contender or for trade bait.

3. Load Up The Bullpen With Interesting Arms

It took some doin’, but the Marlins managed to finish the season with the worst bullpen in the NL East — and the rest of baseball as well, if that needed to be specified — by measure of fWAR. And that’s including Nick Anderson and Sergio Romo, who logged 1.5 fWAR before being traded away. Absent those two hurlers, this was a remarkable -3.7 fWAR unit.

That’s not the be-all, end-all measure of relief work. Rebuilding teams don’t really need reliable bullpens. But it’s awfully dispiriting to a team (let alone a fanbase) to watch winnable games melt away. And, more importantly, it points to an opportunity.

The Marlins know the drill here. They already cashed in on the aforementioned Anderson, who was acquired for a song. And they just picked up lefty Josh Smith on a similar premise. There ought to be more where that came from. In addition to waiver targets, the Marlins can consider bounceback veterans with some degree of upside along with minor-league free agents.

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