Top 25 Offseason Trade Candidates: Late-2019 Update
Since our initial top-trade list of the offseason, we’ve seen a fair bit of activity on that front. Among those who were ranked or otherwise noted, the following ended up on the move: Omar Narvaez, Dylan Bundy, Corey Kluber, Nomar Mazara, Hunter Renfroe, Jurickson Profar, and Jake Marisnick. Now, with free agency humming along, we could see yet more significant players dealt.
This is an updated version of our list. The “methodology” is set forth in the original. It’s subjective; it’s debatable; and that’s what makes it fun.
1. Starling Marte, OF, Pirates (LR: 2): There’s not a full sense of urgency with Marte, who is under control for another season, but there’s a lot of demand in center and he’s a really nice fit for multiple teams. It still feels like some team will step up with a sufficient offer to get the Bucs to bite.
2. Ken Giles, RP, Blue Jays (LR: 1): The Jays have spent on new additions, but it still makes sense to shop a rental reliever in a market starved of high-end relief pitching. Perhaps the Toronto organization will seek MLB assets rather than far-away prospects; maybe the team will even hold Giles and re-assess at the trade deadline if the offers are insufficient.
3. Francisco Lindor, SS, Indians (LR: NR): It’s still not clear just how likely the Indians are to move their best player, but they did just trade Kluber and interest in Lindor has been both robust and persistent. He leaps to the top tier of this list based on his elite talent and the increasing plausibility of a deal.
4. Matthew Boyd, SP, Tigers (LR: 6): Several teams have yet to address their needs for starting pitching. With shell-shocking price tags on starters thus far, there’s added appeal in Boyd — a cost-efficient, controllable, durable starter with obvious upside.
5. Jackie Bradley Jr., OF, Red Sox (LR: 4): The market has been quiet, but it still stands to reason that the luxury-shaving Boston club will end up finding a taker for their solid center fielder.
6. Dominic Smith, 1B, Mets (LR: 8): Rumors on Smith haven’t exactly flown, but … where does he fit on the Mets roster? The club could really benefit from adding other pieces or freeing payroll space; moving Smith offers the readiest means to accomplish those tasks.
7. Josh Hader, RP, Brewers (LR: NR): It’s awfully tough to gauge the likelihood of a deal involving the star southpaw reliever. But we know the Brewers are at least listening. And the plausibility of a deal perhaps increased when the anticipated cost of his arbitration seasons went through the roof when he snuck in as a Super Two. It’ll take a haul, but there’s a lot of potential interest and Milwaukee front office hasn’t shied away from bold change.
8. David Price, SP, Red Sox (LR: NR): The veteran southpaw underperformed his peripherals last year and doesn’t look quite so expensive after the eye-popping pitching contracts we’ve seen of late. He’s due $32MM annually in each of the next three seasons. The Red Sox would have to eat some money, to be sure, but it’s easier now to imagine a deal coming together. And sending out Price would be the readiest way of clearing the books.
9. Robbie Ray, SP, Diamondbacks (LR: 7): At various times, we’ve seen strong hints that Ray very much is and very much isn’t available. Shrug. The Snakes are always open to high-value scenarios and will consider moving Ray. But if they’re serious about chasing down the Dodgers, they’ll have to sacrifice some amount of future upside to prioritize the present. Hanging onto a high-ceiling arm such as Ray, who could still be dealt mid-season or get a qualifying offer at season’s end, seems like a reasonable risk.
10-11. Kris Bryant, 3B/OF, Cubs & Nolan Arenado, 3B, Rockies (LR: 21, NR): There’s a lot of smoke surrounding the third base market. If nothing else, perhaps there are a few enterprising GMs somewhere in the cloud, laboring to spark the tinder that could grow into a raging bonfire. That’s … well, it’s an overwrought metaphor, but you know what we mean. Anthony Rendon and Mike Moustakas are already signed. There are a lot of teams chasing Josh Donaldson. Those that miss could make serious runs at Bryant and Arenado, two of the game’s very best overall players over the past several seasons.
12. Chris Archer, SP, Pirates (LR: 10): Have we mentioned the price of pitching? The Bucs don’t need to move Archer, but this might be an opportune moment. He’s only going to cost $20MM over the next two years, more than half of which isn’t even guaranteed (relevant in the event that he tanks or is hurt in 2020).
13. J.A. Happ, SP, Yankees (LR: NR): The Yanks’ intentions regarding Happ aren’t entirely clear, but rumors have indicated he’s plenty available. And it stands to reason he would be, since he comes with a big luxury tax hit — $17MM, which is also the price of his 2020 salary — and really doesn’t seem a necessary piece of the pitching puzzle in New York.
14. Keone Kela, RP, Pirates (LR: 13): It’s certainly possible the Bucs will prefer not to sell low on Kela, who’s only owed a projected $3.4MM in his final season of arbitration eligibility. But that could add to the degree of difficulty of the team’s much-needed clubhouse improvement effort. And while there’s upside in holding out for a trade deadline deal, there’s also a risk of getting nothing back.
15. Clint Frazier, OF, Yankees (LR: 9): A few factors have conspired to move down the likelihood of a Frazier swap. The Yankees have spent big on pitching rather than using the trade market to address those needs. The early-season absence of Aaron Hicks leaves more room in the outfield. And the 26th roster spot makes it easier to fit Frazier even with a plethora of other position-player options. There are still scenarios where Frazier, Miguel Andujar, or some other player ends up on the move before the start of the season, but it’s also not hard to see the logic in hanging onto the full slate of bats to open the year with a plan to adapt as things play out.
16. Brad Hand, RP, Indians (LR: NR): This is speculative, as we haven’t seen Hand appear in rumors as a trade candidate. But if the Cleveland organization is willing to hold discussions regarding Lindor, it can’t hang up on callers asking about Hand. The southpaw closer is earning $7MM this year with a $10MM option for 2021, making him a cost-efficient target who’d greatly improve any bullpen in baseball.
17. Wil Myers, OF, Padres (LR: NR): No question about it: this contract is under water. Myers is owed $20MM annually through 2022 (plus a $1MM buyout on an option year). His play hasn’t justified that kind of salary. But the Friars are said to be a bit over budget at the moment and are surely still looking to improve their roster in a season in which they have to make real strides. Structuring a deal involving Myers could be a key part of the puzzle.
18-19. Josh Bell, 1B & Adam Frazier, UTIL, Pirates (LR: 14, NR): We didn’t include Frazier in our last list, but reports indicate he’s getting plenty of interest from other organizations. A versatile defender who has had good overall success against right-handed pitching, Frazier would fit a lot of rosters. It’s also not strictly clear how much trade value the market will reward him. Bell would be valued highly, but it’d be much harder for the Pirates to part with him, even if he didn’t sustain his superstar first half effort in 2019. In both cases, the Pittsburgh organization will want to be wowed to make a deal, but must be open to the possibility.
20-22. Mychal Givens, RP, Orioles; Joe Jimenez, RP, Tigers; Tim Hill, RP, Royals (LR: 15, 16, NR): As with our first list, these relievers stand out as guys that don’t have to be dealt but surely are available for the right price. Hill joins the list after being cited as a target of several contenders. The southpaw offers plenty of cheap control to the Kansas City organization but is already 29 years of age. He carried big groundball numbers last year while also showing an ability to get strikeouts against righties. Givens is the best established of this group, though he’s coming off of a forgettable 2019 season. As for Jimenez, the Tigers will likely remain patient given the lengthy control rights remaining, but the club ought to pursue trade scenarios if there’s serious interest.
23. Willson Contreras, C, Cubs (LR: 23): So if the Cubbies are likely to move one significant player as part of their promised reshuffling, and it doesn’t turn out to be Bryant … one would expect to see Contreras on the move. Then again, cash-strapped though it may be, the Chicago front office can’t just go dumping Contreras for any old return. It’s still possible the Cubs will have a rather wild or a totally tame overall offseason once the dust settle.
24. Mookie Betts, OF, Red Sox (LR: 20): It’s tough to guess the odds of a move involving one of the game’s greatest players. It seems low, but there are some intriguing possibilities. New chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom came up with the Rays, who routinely spin off their best players as they near free agency. Might the Dodgers turn to a full-court press on Betts if they miss on other targets? Could some other team see a chance at vaulting past their rivals in one fell swoop? There has been much talk about how Betts may not be all that valuable on a one-year deal that’s likely to approach $30MM. Well … what about the rarity of the opportunity to rent a mid-prime, ~6-7+ WAR player without promising him gobs of money into his late thirties? There’s immense appeal to that as well.
25. James McCann, C, White Sox (LR: NR): The South Siders have put out word that they like the idea of carrying McCann along with Yasmani Grandal. There’s some sense in that, to be sure, as the former can reduce the load on the latter, who can also line up at designated hitter or first base. But if the White Sox end up adding another significant bat to go with Jose Abreu in the 1B/DH mix, as they’re rumored to be exploring, then the arrangement would seem decidedly less functional. In that event, working out a deal involving McCann might work for all involved. He’d get a better playing time situation, the White Sox could address other needs (either directly or by adding to the club’s prospect/payroll pool), and another organization would find a way to fill a void in a market that has moved quickly on catchers.
Others To Consider
Premium multi-year targets: Andrew Benintendi, OF, Red Sox; Mike Clevinger, SP, Indians; Jon Gray, SP, Rockies; Trevor Story, SS, Rockies; Mitch Haniger, OF, Mariners; Trey Mancini, 1B/OF, Orioles; J.D. Martinez, DH/OF, Red Sox; Eduardo Rodriguez, SP, Red Sox; Whit Merrifield, UTIL, Royals; Corey Seager, SS, Dodgers
Rental targets: Marcus Semien, SS, Athletics; Kirby Yates, RP, Padres; Ian Kennedy, RP, Royals; Joc Pederson, OF, Dodgers; Josh Reddick, OF, Astros; Jeff Samardzija, SP, Giants; Carlos Santana, 1B, Indians
Younger players with multi-year control: Kyle Schwarber, OF, Cubs; Johan Camargo, INF, Braves; J.D. Davis, INF/OF, Mets; Steven Matz, SP, Mets; Niko Goodrum, INF/OF, Tigers; Austin Hedges, C, Padres; Ender Inciarte, OF, Braves; Manuel Margot, OF, Padres; Albert Almora Jr., OF, Cubs; Mallex Smith, OF, Mariners; Michael A. Taylor, OF, Nationals; Jose Urena, SP/RP, Marlins; Caleb Smith, SP, Marlins; Tyler Mahle, SP, Reds; Brad Keller, SP, Royals; Abraham Toro, Astros; Joe Musgrove, SP, Pirates
Veterans on expensive, multi-year contracts: Brandon Belt, 1B, Giants; Matt Carpenter, 3B/1B, Cardinals; Brandon Crawford, SS, Giants; Wade Davis, RP, Rockies; Ian Desmond, OF/IF, Rockies; Charlie Blackmon, OF, Rockies; Dexter Fowler, OF, Cardinals; Dee Gordon, 2B, Mariners; Evan Longoria, 3B, Giants; Jake McGee, RP, Rockies; Bryan Shaw, RP, Rockies; A.J. Pollock, OF, Dodgers; Jed Lowrie, INF, Mets; Kyle Seager, 3B, Mariners
Poll: Which Sub-.500 AL Team’s Having The Best Offseason?
The Blue Jays, White Sox, Rangers and Angels each entered the winter amid multiyear playoff droughts and on the heels of sub-.500 showings in 2019. No one from that American League quartet has been a sorrier bunch for longer than the White Sox, owners of an 11-year postseason-less skid. The Blue Jays, Rangers and Angels have at least been relevant more recently than Chicago, but success has still escaped those other clubs for far too long. However, judging by the teams’ actions in the past weeks, they’ve had their fill of serving as doormats in their league. The offseason has gotten off to rollicking starts for all of these franchises, each of which has made more than one significant addition since the floodgates opened in November.
The Angels, they of the pitiful 72-90 record last season, finally look as if they’re in decent position to capitalize on all-world center fielder Mike Trout‘s presence. They added the foremost position player on the market, third baseman Anthony Rendon, on a whopper of a contract worth $245MM over seven years. The rotation-needy Halos have also picked up a pair of starters in Dylan Bundy and Julio Teheran. Neither will be confused for an ace, but they should give the team much-needed competent innings at reasonable prices near the back of its rotation. If you’re a glass-half-empty type, though, you may be unimpressed by the Angels’ lack of a front-line starter pickup (though the return of Shohei Ohtani from Tommy John surgery should be a major help) and/or that they haven’t addressed their problems at catcher yet.
The White Sox, also coming off a 72-win season, have been extremely busy in upgrading their lineup. Their offense produced the third-fewest runs in the AL, but that should change for the better in a year with the signing of star catcher Yasmani Grandal (four years, $73MM). The White Sox also helped their cause by retaining first baseman/designated hitter Jose Abreu (three years, $50MM), and they’re clinging to hope that 24-year-old outfielder Nomar Mazara (acquired from Texas) will start living up to his immense promise now that he has changed teams. Even with those three in tow, the White Sox might not be done yet on the offensive end. They’re reportedly at the forefront of the sweepstakes for Edwin Encarnacion, yet another slugging 1B/DH, and remain in the mix for outfielder Nicholas Castellanos – possibly the second-best position player left in free agency.
Of course, upgrading at the plate hasn’t been Chicago’s sole focus. The White Sox made a large splash on the pitching side last weekend when they agreed to sign former Cy Young-winning southpaw Dallas Keuchel for three years and $55.5MM. He followed the much more modestly priced Gio Gonzalez as the second accomplished lefty the team signed for its rotation. With those two, ace Lucas Giolito, the high-upside Reynaldo Lopez–Dylan Cease–Michael Kopech trio, and (once he returns from Tommy John surgery) Carlos Rodon, the club actually has plenty to look forward to with regards to its starting staff.
The same can be said for the Blue Jays and Rangers, who have each spent the majority of the offseason bettering their rotations. Toronto, a lowly 67-95 last season, just took a four-year, $80MM gamble on ex-Dodger Hyun-Jin Ryu. After offering elite production in his final year as a Dodger, Ryu’s in line to lead a Jays staff that will also consist of fellow new additions Tanner Roark, Chase Anderson, Matt Shoemaker (returning from a torn ACL) and perhaps some combination of ex-Japanese star Shun Yamaguchi (yet another just-signed hurler), Trent Thornton, Jacob Waguespack, Ryan Borucki, Anthony Kay and stud prospect Nate Pearson. Unlike late last season, after the Jays traded two vet starters (Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez) and their rotation was a barren wasteland, possibilities abound.
On the offensive side, the Jays replaced departed first baseman Justin Smoak (now a Brewer) with ex-Brewer Travis Shaw in the corner infield. It’s hard to see that as an upgrade on paper, though, after the woeful 2019 Shaw had. But for one year and $4MM, it’ll look brilliant if Shaw returns anywhere near the 3.0-WAR production he managed from 2017-18.
As for Texas, this offseason looks like a bit of a mixed bag. The Rangers have not added at third base or catcher, two positions that still look iffy, even though they partook in the Rendon derby and have also been part of Josh Donaldson‘s market. On the other hand, their rotation looks far superior to the 2019 group that got very little outside of the Mike Minor–Lance Lynn duo and played a key role in a 78-84 finish. Those two are back, while two-time Cy Young winner Corey Kluber (acquired from the Indians), Kyle Gibson (three years, $28MM) and Jordan Lyles (two years, $16MM) will round out the quintet. For the first time in a while, it’s fair to say the Rangers’ rotation looks strong one through five.
All of these clubs have been extraordinarily active as they seek ways to move past their longstanding struggles in 2020. In your opinion, though, which has enjoyed the best offseason so far?
(Poll link for app users)
Which sub-.500 AL team's having the best offseason?
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White Sox 55% (13,938)
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Angels 19% (4,765)
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Blue Jays 14% (3,433)
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Rangers 12% (3,130)
Total votes: 25,266
MLBTR Poll: Time For Indians To Trade Lindor, Clevinger?
This has already been a winter of major change for the Indians. A couple months removed from their first non-playoff season since 2015, the Indians traded two-time American League Cy Young-winning right-hander Corey Kluber to the Rangers last weekend for reliever Emmanuel Clase and outfielder Delino DeShields. Cleveland did pick up at least one intriguing piece in the 21-year-old, heat-throwing Clase, though it was also a cost-cutting move for the small-market club to get all of Kluber’s $17.5MM guarantee for 2020 off the books.
To the Indians’ credit, they did win 93 games in 2019 with little to no help from Kluber, who slumped through an uncharacteristically poor month before succumbing to a season-ending broken forearm May 1. So, maybe getting rid of Kluber in favor of a Shane Bieber–Mike Clevinger–Carlos Carrasco–Aaron Civale–Zach Plesac rotation won’t have a deleterious effect their fortunes. Maybe they remain well-equipped to compete next year in the AL Central, which has multiple bottom-feeding teams and has seen its reigning champion (Minnesota) make no clear improvements since the offseason got underway. Or maybe the Kluber trade was the first monumental deal the Indians will make in an effort to cut money and look toward the future.
For Cleveland, there’s no bigger decision than whether to trade four-time All-Star shortstop Francisco Lindor, who has popped up in many rumors over the past few months. Lindor’s one of the finest players in the game – no doubt the Indians’ best – but it seems inevitable they’ll trade him in the next couple years. A free agent a pair of offseasons from now, Lindor’s projected to earn $16.7MM in arbitration for 2020. That’s unquestionably a reasonable sum for what he brings to the table and an amount all teams (including the Indians) should be able to afford, but perhaps they’ll sell Lindor off now before his control continues to dwindle. It’s at least under consideration, as they’ve reportedly asked interested teams (the Dodgers, Padres and Reds are among them) for their best and last offers heading into the weekend.
Other than Lindor, the Indians have at least one other extremely valuable trade chip in Clevinger. Set to turn 29 on Saturday, the righty has been one of baseball’s most effective starters since his 2017 breakout. Clevinger still has three years of control left (and should make less than $5MM next season), so he looks like someone the Indians should keep if the goal is to push for a World Series in the near term. However, there’s said to be plenty of trade interest in Clevinger, meaning it’s possible we’ve seen the last of him in an Indians uniform if another team bowls them over with a proposal that’s too enticing to decline. The Indians, for their part, have understandably placed a “crazy high” asking price on Clevinger, per reporter Robert Murray.
While we don’t know exactly what teams have offered (or will offer) for Lindor and Clevinger, it’s fair to say both players are capable of bringing back a haul in a trade. Therefore, it’s reasonable to wonder what the Indians should do with the two of them going forward. Should they retain one or both and try to return to the playoffs next season, or is it time for the franchise to sell high?
(Poll link for app users)
What should the Indians do with Lindor, Clevinger?
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Trade both 34% (4,716)
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Keep both (at least for now) 33% (4,620)
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Trade Lindor 29% (4,064)
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Trade Clevinger 3% (393)
Total votes: 13,793
Checking In On MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agent Predictions
At the beginning of each offseason, MLBTR publishes a list of the top 50 free agents on the board by projected earning power. It has only been a month and a half since this winter’s top 50 hit the site, but little did we know then that this offseason would move at such a rapid pace. We’ve already seen more than half of the members of this year’s list (27 players), including four of the top five, either sign new contracts or accept qualifying offers. With that said, let’s check in on how MLBTR has fared with its predictions thus far…
1. Gerrit Cole, SP – Predicted: Eight years, $256MM. Signed: Nine years, $324MM.
2. Anthony Rendon, 3B – Predicted: Seven years, $235MM. Signed: Seven years, $245MM.
3. Stephen Strasburg, SP – Predicted: Six years, $180MM. Signed: Seven years, $245MM.
4. Zack Wheeler, SP – Predicted: Five years, $100MM. Signed: Five years, $118MM.
6. Madison Bumgarner, SP – Predicted: Four years, $72MM. Signed: Five years, $85MM.
7. Yasmani Grandal, C – Predicted: Four years, $68MM. Signed: Four years, $73MM.
10. Jake Odorizzi, SP – Predicted: Three years, $51MM. Accepted $17.8MM qualifying offer.
12. Didi Gregorius, SS – Predicted: Three years, $42MM. Signed: One year, $14MM.
13. Will Smith, RP – Predicted: Three years, $42MM. Signed: Three years, $40MM.
15. Cole Hamels, SP – Predicted: Two years, $30MM. Signed: One year, $18MM.
16. Jose Abreu, 1B/DH – Predicted: Two years, $28MM. Accepted $17.8MM qualifying offer and then signed for three years, $50MM.
17. Michael Pineda, SP – Predicted: Two years, $22MM. Signed: Two years, $20MM.
18. Mike Moustakas, INF – Predicted: Two years, $20MM. Signed: Four years, $64MM.
19. Kyle Gibson, SP – Predicted: Two years, $18MM. Signed: Three years, $30MM.
20. Tanner Roark, SP – Predicted: Two years, $18MM. Signed: Two years, $24MM.
21. Julio Teheran, SP – Predicted: Two years, $18MM. Signed: One year, $9MM.
23. Drew Pomeranz, RP – Predicted: Two years, $16MM. Signed: Four years, $34MM.
24. Wade Miley, SP – Predicted: Two years, $16MM. Signed: Two years, $15MM.
26. Travis d’Arnaud, C – Predicted: Two years, $14MM. Signed: Two years, $16MM.
27. Chris Martin, RP – Predicted: Two years, $14MM. Signed: Two years, $14MM.
29. Avisail Garcia, OF – Predicted: Two years, $12MM. Signed: Two years, $20MM.
30. Howie Kendrick, INF – Predicted: Two years, $12MM. Signed: One year, $6.25MM.
31. Rick Porcello, SP – Predicted: One year, $11MM. Signed: One year, $10MM.
32. Brett Gardner, OF – Predicted: One year, $10MM. Signed: One year, $12.5MM.
40. Adam Wainwright, SP – Predicted: One year, $8MM. Signed: One year, $5MM.
42. Josh Lindblom, SP – Predicted: Two years, $8MM. Signed: Three years, $9.125MM.
47. Michael Wacha, SP – Predicted: One year, $6MM. Signed: One year, $3MM.
Total – Predicted: $1,327,000,000. Signed: $1,521,675,000.
A few things stand out here. First of all, special thanks to Braves reliever Chris Martin for making us look good by signing for the exact amount we said he’d receive. In the aggregate, though, we were obviously too conservative with this year’s estimates. However, in our defense, did anyone foresee such a spending bonanza this offseason?
When MLBTR’s Jeff Todd wrote this same piece a year ago, only one top five free agent and just 16 out of 50 had signed or agreed to take the qualifying offer. Furthermore, at that point, MLBTR’s projections were actually $20MM above the amount of money that had been handed out. Historic contracts worth $300MM or more were later given to outfielder Bryce Harper (Phillies) and infielder Manny Machado (Padres), the two highest-rated free agents available, but the MLBPA was nonetheless frustrated by the game’s second straight glacial offseason.
As a result of the union’s discontentment, speculation grew in regards to a potential work stoppage when the current collective bargaining agreement expires in December 2021. Perhaps that will still happen, but executive director Tony Clark & Co. have to be much more pleased with how this offseason has unfolded in comparison to the previous couple. Regardless, judging by the billions that teams have awarded to free agents in under two months, it’s clear there is still plenty of money to go around in Major League Baseball.
10 Relatively Youthful Bounceback Pitching Targets
Much of the heavy lifting has been done in free agency. But there are still a few major players, a host of solid veterans, and no shortage of intriguing reclamation projects left on the open market. Here, we’ll look at a few available hurlers who have previously established significant MLB ceilings and are only entering their age-30 or younger seasons … albeit with significant injury histories that have altered their career trajectories.
We’ll go youngest to oldest:
Edubray Ramos: The still-youthful hurler — he celebrated his 27th birthday just yesterday — endured a highly disappointing 2019 season, struggling through shoulder problems and ultimately throwing only 15 MLB innings. But he was quite effective in 2018 and could be an interesting bounceback candidate after getting some rest over the offseason (though he is pitching in Venezuelan winter ball).
Taijuan Walker: Walker worked back from multiple arm injuries, only to end up as a surprising non-tender from the Diamondbacks. It’s certainly notable that his own club wasn’t convinced, but that won’t stop others from reaching their own risk/benefit assessments. Walker threw 157 1/3 innings of 3.49 ERA ball in his last full season, 2017. In his brief return to the bigs in 2019, Walker was already exhibiting most of his prior velocity and spin rate, so there’s reason to hope the physical tools are still intact.
Aaron Sanchez: It has long been a rollercoaster for the other 27-year-old starter on this list. He has battled through with finger injuries, then showed flashes in 2019 before going down to shoulder surgery. That procedure made it inevitable that he’d be non-tendered by the Astros, but the talent that led the Houston organization to take a shot will surely still intrigue rival organizations.
Alex Wood: He was held up to open the 2019 season and struggled with the long ball when he finally did appear for the Reds, but the southpaw did make it back to the bump. He showed typical velocity, swinging-strike, and K/BB numbers in his seven-start stint to finish out the year. Wood has thrown 839 innings of 3.40 ERA ball in his career, with peripherals that largely match, so don’t sleep on his upside.
Arodys Vizcaino: Over 2017-18, Vizcaino threw 95 2/3 innings of 2.54 ERA ball. The Viz Kid way outperformed his peripherals in doing so, but has always had swing-and-miss stuff. It’s anyone’s guess how he’ll bounce back from shoulder surgery, and he was hardly a perfect pitcher beforehand, but Vizcaino remains an interesting player to watch.
Shelby Miller: Okay, so Miller is going to have to bounce waaaay back if he’s to return to effectiveness. Since the fateful trade that sent him from the Braves to the Diamondbacks after the 2015 season, he has thrown just 183 innings of 6.89 ERA ball. Miller fell far short of a comeback last year with the Rangers, but did show 95 mph heat and is still only 29 years of age.
Jerad Eickhoff: Quite effective through the first forty starts of his MLB career, Eickhoff took a step back in 2017 and then ran into an injury wall. He made it back to the mound for the ’19 campaign but was only good for a 5.71 ERA in 58 1/3 innings. Eickhoff will need to regain some arm speed and figure out how to adapt to a longball-lofting set of opposing hitters.
Danny Salazar: Thirty in January, Salazar remains an intriguing talent. He has exhibited plenty of strikeout ability and found no small amount of success in the majors, but hasn’t yet shown he can find his way back from health issues. It’s unclear as yet what course his career will take, but the upside is tremendous.
Tony Cingrani: Cingrani hasn’t pitched a full season since 2016 and didn’t throw a pitch in the Majors in 2019 due to shoulder surgery. But looking at what the 30-year-old lefty did in parts of two seasons after being traded from Cincinnati to Los Angeles is eye-opening. Cingrani faced 172 hitters as a Dodger and struck out 64 of them (37.2 percent) while walking only 12 (6.9 percent). His swinging-strike rate in L.A. topped 14 percent. Considering the left-handed relief market was thin to begin the offseason and is now largely devoid of proven options, he’s a sensible buy-low target.
Drew Smyly: In addition to being one of those guys who’s younger than you thought every time you look, Smyly was also probably better at his peak than many fully realized. Times have been tougher of late, as he missed all of the ’17 and ’18 seasons and had a brutal run to open the 2019 campaign with the Rangers. But he finished on a better streak with the Phillies after fiddling with his pitch mix, posting a 4.45 ERA with 9.8 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 in a dozen starts. The velo and swinging-strike numbers are right back where they used to be. Smyly is a sneaky interesting target.
Top 10 Remaining Free Agents
At least in terms of free-agent signings, this is the fastest-paced offseason Major League Baseball has seen over the past couple years. Of the 50 players MLBTR ranked as the premier free agents entering the winter, more than half (26) have already left the board in the month-plus since the market opened. That includes the handful of elite free agents (Gerrit Cole, Anthony Rendon, Stephen Strasburg and Zack Wheeler), the latest $100MM-plus players in baseball. But now that they’re among the players who have found homes, who are the most appealing performers without deals? Let’s reorder the top 10 based on the rankings MLBTR put together coming into the offseason and see where they stand…
5. Josh Donaldson, 3B: With Rendon no longer available, Donaldson has taken over as hands down the most effective hitter on the market. The former Athletic, Blue Jay, Indian and Brave may well replace Rendon in Washington after posting his latest excellent season with division-rival Atlanta. Otherwise, anyone from a group of teams consisting of the Braves, Twins, Rangers, Phillies or Dodgers could end up with the 34-year-old.
8. Nicholas Castellanos, OF: Age (28 in March) and a quality offensive track record are on Castellanos’ side. Defensive prowess isn’t, on the other hand, but struggles in the field shouldn’t stop Castellanos from securing a multiyear contract worth a sizable sum. The Cubs, with whom he thrived late last season, as well as the Marlins, Rangers, Giants and Diamondbacks are among the clubs that have been connected to Castellanos in free agency.
9. Hyun-Jin Ryu, LHP: With Cole, Strasburg, Wheeler and Madison Bumgarner no longer seeking employment, Ryu has assumed the mantle as the No. 1 pitcher without a contract. Ryu will turn 33 in March, and injuries have been problematic for him at times, yet there has been talk of a four-year contract worth at least $17MM per season for the career-long Dodger. Deservedly so, as Ryu finished second in NL Cy Young voting last season.
11. Marcell Ozuna, OF: Between the Marlins and Cardinals, Ozuna owns a years-long track record of posting above-average overall production. But the 29-year-old is more a good player than a star, which is likely why he’s still seeking a contract after most of the truly elite position players have already vacated the board. And the fact that Ozuna has a qualifying offer weighing him down surely doesn’t help.
14. Dallas Keuchel, LHP: A qualifying offer was among the reasons Keuchel didn’t find a contract until last June, when he finally signed with the Braves on a one-year, $13MM pact. The soon-to-be 32-year-old Keuchel didn’t have a banner season with the Braves, and there hasn’t been a ton of reported interest in him this winter, but the former AL Cy Young winner should do better this time with no QO hanging over his head.
21. Julio Teheran, RHP: Teheran, 29 in January, has amassed seven straight seasons of at least 170 innings while posting a career 3.67 ERA/4.23 FIP. He walks too many hitters (upward of four per nine in each of the previous two years), but if you’re in the market for a durable, passable mid- to back-end starter, you can do a whole lot worse than Teheran. That said, rumors on Teheran have been scarce since the Braves declined his $12MM option for 2020 a few days into November.
22. Will Harris, RHP: This isn’t a great offseason for free-agent relievers, especially considering Aroldis Chapman and Will Smith resolved their contract statuses weeks ago. But the underrated Harris, 35, has been rather strong over the past several years. A former Rockie, Diamondback and Astro, Harris logged a 2.84 ERA/3.03 FIP with 9.58 K/9, 2.32 BB/9 and a 49.6 percent groundball rate from 2012-19. Despite that success, though, Harris has drawn very little reported interest this offseason. If you look at Harris’ MLBTR archive, Minnesota has been the only known pursuer thus far.
25. Corey Dickerson, OF: Injuries were a problem for Dickerson in 2019, a 78-game season split between the two Pennsylvania teams, but there’s little doubt he can hit. The well-traveled 30-year-old owns a .286/.328/.504 line with 115 home runs in almost 3,000 plate appearances since debuting in 2014. Nevertheless, Miami is the sole club that has shown rumored interest in Dickerson since free agency.
28. Daniel Hudson, RHP: Rumors centering on Hudson, who became an unexpected hero for the World Series-winning Nationals after they acquired him from the Blue Jays at July’s deadline, had been scarce until Tuesday. While a return to Washington has looked like a no-brainer for both sides this winter, they remain apart in contract talks. The hard-throwing Hudson, 33 in March, wants a multiyear pact and may be able to find one with another team if the Nats don’t meet his demands.
33. Robinson Chirinos, C: Yasmani Grandal and Travis d’Arnaud are among the free-agent catchers who have found new homes, and it shouldn’t be long before the 35-year-old Chirinos follows them. Although defense isn’t Chirinos’ calling card, his above-average offensive track record leaves him as arguably the best backstop left on the market. At least a few teams have shown interest this offseason in Chirinos, including the AL-winning Houston club that benefited from adding him in 2019.
Twins Still Searching For Major Rotation Addition
We’re closing in on the one-year anniversary of these memorable words from Twins GM Thad Levine: “The best moves are made not when you’re trying to open the window to contend, but when the window is wide open. We’re very eagerly waiting for this window to be opened, and when it is, we plan on striking.”
Last season, the Minnesota roster shattered the pane with 101 wins. A roster that front office characterized as possessing an “unusual abundance of variance and volatility” came up aces. Now, Levine and chief baseball officer Derek Falvey have no real choice but to believe in the talent on hand and take on the mentality of a clear contender. There are several areas to consider for improvement, but as MLBTR’s Steve Adams explained at the outset of the offseason, the rotation was the prime area of focus.
So, how to understand the club’s early maneuvering? Falvey and Levine opened the offseason by bringing back two preexisting players at much higher prices than they had played for in the prior two seasons. The added cost is understandable in each instance, as both pitchers boosted their value with quality seasons. Jake Odorizzi doesn’t seem likely to vastly outperform the $17.8MM he’s now promised after accepting the qualifying offer — he’ll be hard-pressed to replicate his excellent results from 2019 — but it’s an appealing contract for the team since it comes without any future obligations. And just-re-inked hurler Michael Pineda seemed like a plausible candidate to be pursued at a higher rate of pay, so his two-year, $20MM contract seems at worst to be a market-value move that comes with real upside.
The front office is pleased with these re-acquisitions, as it should be, but the rotation remains incomplete. “I do think we’ve stabilized the team and that was essential,” Levine explains to Dan Hayes of The Athletic (subscription link). “Now, we still have the ability to impact it significantly. But, first steps first, was to stabilize.”
Odorizzi and Pineda helped the Twins to a magical 2019 regular season and can undoubtedly be a big part of driving another winner. Doubling down on last year’s unit is mostly a fine strategy. But that roster variability that the Twins’ upper management cited this time last year? It cuts both ways. Mitch Garver might turn into a pumpkin. Nelson Cruz could show his age. Odorizzi and Pineda are hardly assured of repeating their ’19 efforts. Injuries and performance backslides are always possible. With the Indians facing uncertainty, the White Sox trying to figure out precisely how to vault into contention, and the remainder of the AL Central firmly in the rebuilding camp, now isn’t the time for the Twins to play it safe.
Retaining Odorizzi and Pineda was the prelude — but to what? Levine says that the team is “aspirational of getting the best players we can get.” He also suggested patience in making that happen. “What we’ve seen the last couple of years is that this process has skewed later and later each year,” says Levine of free agency. “Maybe we’re seeing it rebound a little bit this offseason and we’re going to be attentive to that. But we’re having a lot of meetings now to put ourselves in the best position to proceed.”
Just how it’ll all shake out remains to be seen. The Twins aren’t in the market for Gerrit Cole but do have eyes on the next tier of available arms. Madison Bumgarner and Hyun-Jin Ryu have long been known to be targets. Fellow southpaw starter Dallas Keuchel is also of interest, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link).
Hayes also emphasizes the possibility of trades, even noting that the front office hasn’t ruled out dealing from among its very best prospects. Trouble is, the trade market isn’t exactly laden with obviously available, high-end hurlers. Robbie Ray is probably the best rental arm that could be had; otherwise, Chris Archer may be the next-best single-season target that seems to be available. Matthew Boyd and Caleb Smith are among the controllable pitchers that ought to be open for bids. It is difficult to imagine deals coming together with the Rockies (Jon Gray, German Marquez), Mets (Noah Syndergaard), or Red Sox (Eduardo Rodriguez, David Price), but the Twins have surely inquired. Unfortunately, some of the most intriguing wild-card targets (Corey Kluber, Mike Clevinger) play for the division-rival Indians.
The Twins aren’t the only organization playing this high-stakes game at the moment. Intense and widespread demand explains why the Phillies spent big to land Zack Wheeler — beating the Twins and others to do so — while the Nationals went to such heights to retain Stephen Strasburg. If and when the Twins finally put the wraps on a major transaction to haul in a top-shelf starter, it’ll likely sting the wallet or the farm. But with that metaphorical window now wide open, it’s incumbent upon the organization to dedicate real resources to taking advantage.
Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Dodgers
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The 2019 season resulted in another NL West title but more playoff disappointment for the powerhouse Dodgers. Now, newly extended president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman is once again looking for ways to get the Dodgers their first World Series championship since 1988.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Clayton Kershaw, LHP: $46.67MM through 2021
- A.J. Pollock, OF: $42MM through 2022 (including $5MM buyout for 2023)
- Kenley Jansen, RHP: $38MM through 2021
- Joe Kelly, RHP: $21MM through 2021 (including $4MM buyout for 2022)
- Justin Turner, 3B: $19MM through 2020
- Kenta Maeda, RHP: $12MM through 2023
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Pedro Baez (5.059) – $3.3MM
- Enrique Hernandez (5.054) – $5.5MM
- Joc Pederson (5.028) – $8.5MM
- Chris Taylor (4.037) – $5.0MM
- Corey Seager (4.032) – $7.1MM
- Ross Stripling (3.115) – $2.3MM
- Max Muncy (3.027) – $4.6MM
- Cody Bellinger (2.160) – $11.6MM
- Julio Urias (2.117) – $1.7MM
Free Agents
- Hyun-Jin Ryu, Rich Hill, Russell Martin, Jedd Gyorko, Yimi Garcia, David Freese (retired)
The Dodgers have been eminently successful since Friedman came over from Tampa Bay to take the reins after the 2014 season. However, despite their financial might, they haven’t been aggressive in handing out large contracts during the Friedman reign. In fact, the Friedman-led Dodgers haven’t issued a single $100MM-plus contract. That could change this offseason, though, as the Dodgers work to finally push themselves over the top in 2020. So far this offseason, they’ve been connected to the three best free agents available – right-hander Gerrit Cole, third baseman Anthony Rendon and righty Stephen Strasburg (the latter two helped bounce the Dodgers from the playoffs this year as members of the Nationals). It’s entirely possible all three will require contracts worth at least $200MM and $30MM or more per year, and giving out that type of deal would obviously represent a radical change of course for the Dodgers.
On paper, the team certainly has the money for a Cole-Rendon-Strasburg splash, but if the Dodgers are still leery of the luxury tax, any of those signings would be difficult to swing. The Dodgers’ luxury-tax projection for 2020 is currently at just south of $180MM, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource and FanGraphs. The first level of the tax next season will fall between $208MM and $228MM. If the Dodgers spend anywhere in that vicinity, the league would hit them with a 20 percent overage tax. Should that deter the Dodgers from making major improvements this winter? Frankly, no, but as we’ve seen time and again, team owners prefer to stay under the tax.
Tax aside, Friedman hasn’t been keen on passing out very long contracts, which could be problematic in regards to a potential LA pursuit of the game’s elite free agents. Cole and Rendon should each get at least seven-year guarantees, while Strasburg may end up at six. Friedman could offer any of those players a high-AAV deal for fewer years, as he reportedly did last offseason with Bryce Harper, but who’s to say any would leave a larger overall guarantee on the table from another club?
Considering the way they typically operate, some skepticism is warranted in regards to whether the Dodgers will actually reel in any of the three superstar free agents on the board. But let’s say it happens. If it’s Cole or Strasburg, he’ll further beef up an already strong rotation that boasts Walker Buehler and Clayton Kershaw as locks. Meanwhile, Friedman has suggested Julio Urias, Kenta Maeda and Ross Stripling have legit chances to comprise the rest of the rotation. Not to be forgotten, the Dodgers also have Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May among their starting options. At the same time, it would be unwise to rule out the potential re-signing of either Hyun-Jin Ryu and/or Rich Hill, who comprise the Dodgers’ two best free agents. Ryu would make for a nice, much cheaper alternative to Cole or Strasburg, though he’s also in line to do rather well on the open market. The aged Hill should be attainable on a one-year deal, and he has already said he’d like to remain a Dodger. If the Dodgers strike out on all of those fronts, perhaps they’d pursue a trade for a starter. Matthew Boyd, Corey Kluber and Chris Archer (whom Friedman knows well from Tampa Bay) are among the starters who may wind up on the block this offseason.
As is the case with their rotation, the Dodgers don’t necessarily have to do anything at third. Justin Turner remains a hugely valuable contributor, yet the club has nonetheless explored Rendon and the No. 2 third baseman in free agency, Josh Donaldson. The latter’s the type of short-term, high-AAV player who could be up the Dodgers’ alley. What would signing Donaldson mean for Turner, though? Well, the 35-year-old has said he’d be open to a position change, which would likely mean moving to first or second. Problem is that the Dodgers aren’t exactly hard up at either of those spots. Max Muncy can line up at either place, NL MVP-winning outfielder Cody Bellinger can play first on occasion, and stud prospect Gavin Lux garnered quite a bit of experience at the keystone late in the season. All that said, if the Dodgers do add Rendon or Donaldson, perhaps they’d shop Turner. Odds are they wouldn’t have much trouble finding a taker, as Turner’s only signed for another year (at $19MM) and would make for an appealing consolation prize for teams that lose out on Rendon and Donaldson.
Staying in the Dodgers’ infield, there’s also at least some chance of a new shortstop coming to town. The Dodgers are well-equipped there with Corey Seager, but he’s not the type of game-changer Cleveland’s Francisco Lindor is. Lindor has another two arbitration-eligible years remaining and, relative to his performance, figures to earn more-than-reasonable salaries in that span. Nevertheless, because the Indians are unlikely to extend the 26-year-old, his name has been bandied about in trade speculation for months. Should he actually become available, Los Angeles is reportedly among the teams that would consider a pursuit. It’s anyone’s guess what a Lindor acquisition would mean for Seager. Perhaps he’d wind up in Cleveland or elsewhere via trade. Regardless, despite his waning team control, Lindor’s good enough to bring back a haul in a trade. The Dodgers may have the ammunition to pull off such a strike, though, considering their wealth of assets in the majors and minors.
Speaking of trades, the Dodgers could go that route and subtract from their lineup. Outfielder Joc Pederson is coming off a 36-home run season, though he has now come up in trade speculation in back-to-back winters. The White Sox seem particularly interested in Pederson, who’s controllable for one more year and should collect a fair salary worth less than $10MM. Pederson’s a valuable player, so the Dodgers can simply keep him, but as MLBTR’s Steve Adams previously noted, they’d be brimming with good outfielders even after his departure (Bellinger, Alex Verdugo, A.J. Pollock, Chris Taylor, Enrique Hernandez, Kyle Garlick and Matt Beaty). Furthermore, dealing Pederson may help the Dodgers upgrade an area of greater concern on their roster.
The bullpen was often a source of frustration for the Dodgers in 2019, including during their NLDS loss to the Nats. Long-dominant closer Kenley Jansen looked more mortal than ever, while last winter’s big-money Joe Kelly signing probably didn’t produce the Year 1 results the Dodgers wanted. Those two will be back next season, though, as will Pedro Baez, Dylan Floro, Scott Alexander, Adam Kolareak and Casey Sadler. Meanwhile, the hurlers from the Dodgers’ surplus of starters who don’t crack their rotation could also factor into the mix. In all, not a bad group. The Dodgers could still do better, though.
The question is: How can the Dodgers upgrade their bullpen from outside? It might not be that easy in free agency, where the No. 1 reliever on this year’s market, Will Smith, has already signed with the Braves. That move crushed the hopes of the many who wanted to see Will Smith pitching to Will Smith in Los Angeles in 2020. With Smith (the pitcher) and Drew Pomeranz (Padres) now off the board, this year’s class of unsigned relievers looks a lot less inspiring. Dellin Betances, Steve Cishek, Kevin Gausman, Daniel Hudson, Collin McHugh, Joe Smith and Will Harris are some of the best choices left, and the Dodgers have shown interest in former A’s closer Blake Treinen. Meantime, the trade market could feature Ken Giles (Blue Jays), Keone Kela (Pirates) and Mychal Givens (Orioles), to name a few. Whether or not the Dodgers acquire anyone from that bunch, it doesn’t appear they’ll be spending an exorbitant amount of cash on trying to better their relief corps in the coming months.
Unlike some other NL clubs (the Padres and Braves, for example), the Dodgers haven’t orchestrated any headline-grabbing moves to this point in the offseason. However, considering their reported interest in several big fish, that could change as early as next week’s Winter Meetings. Even if the Dodgers veer away from adding any true standouts before next year, the Friedman-led club will enter 2020 as the odds-on favorites to win the NL West yet again. But that alone isn’t going to suffice for Dodgers fans, who have waited three-plus decades since their most recent title and have endured one letdown after another in recent postseasons.
Offseason Outlook: Chicago Cubs
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The Cubs will consider major trades as they look to improve a team with holes in center field, the rotation, and the bullpen.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Yu Darvish, SP: $81MM through 2023
- Jason Heyward, RF: $86MM through 2023
- Jon Lester, SP: $25MM through 2020. Includes mutual option for 2021.
- Craig Kimbrel, RP: $33MM through 2021. Includes club/vesting option for 2022.
- Anthony Rizzo, 1B: $16.5MM through 2020. Includes club option for 2021.
- Tyler Chatwood, P: $13MM through 2020.
- Kyle Hendricks, SP: $55.5MM through 2023. Includes club option for 2024.
- Jose Quintana, SP: $10.5MM through 2020.
- Daniel Descalso, 2B: $3.5MM through 2020. Includes club option for 2021.
- David Bote, 3B/2B: $15MM through 2024. Includes club options for 2025 and ’26.
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Kris Bryant, 3B/OF – $18.5MM
- Javier Baez, SS – $9.3MM
- Kyle Schwarber, LF – $8.0MM
- Willson Contreras, C – $4.5MM
- Albert Almora, CF – $1.8MM
- Kyle Ryan, RP – $1.1MM
- Jharel Cotton, SP – agreed to $640K salary
- Non-tendered: Addison Russell, Danny Hultzen
Free Agents
- Nicholas Castellanos, Cole Hamels, Addison Russell, Ben Zobrist, Steve Cishek, Brandon Kintzler, Pedro Strop, David Phelps, Derek Holland, Brandon Morrow, Tony Barnette, Kendall Graveman
This year the Cubs failed to reach the playoffs for the first time since their rebuild ended in 2015. Following a disappointing 84-win season, Joe Maddon’s five-year term as manager came to an end. Despite Maddon achieving the impossible with the Cubs’ 2016 championship, the club showed little interest in a new deal. It was a pretty typical progression – the Cubs’ performance had become increasingly disappointing, particularly with 2018’s one-game Wild Card ouster and missing the playoffs entirely in ’19. That’s not a situation where a manager is typically re-signed, even if most of the blame falls on the players and front office. Maddon is famously laid-back, so the team brought David Ross in to light a fire under the players as well to restore camaraderie. Ross seems like he’ll be able to improve those situations, and should be equally adept as Maddon in dealing with the media. Where Ross’ lineup and in-game tactics rank remains to be seen, as he has no prior managerial experience. The Cubs protected against that concern by hiring former Padres manager Andy Green to serve as Ross’ bench coach.
After hiring Ross, Cubs president Theo Epstein kicked off his offseason by making easy calls on club options, retaining Anthony Rizzo and Jose Quintana and moving on from pitchers David Phelps, Brandon Morrow, Kendall Graveman, and Tony Barnette. The team also picked up Jharel Cotton, an affordable righty who can compete for a fifth starter or long relief role. Cotton, 28 in January, looked promising back in 2016 before injuries set in. The Cubs also made the overdue decision to part ways with infielder Addison Russell, oddly accentuating that they did so because his salary was getting too high. That the Epstein regime did not cut ties with Russell due to the domestic violence allegations against him more than two years ago is something that many of the team’s fans will continue to find disturbing.
Looking forward, let’s start with the matter of the Cubs’ payroll. Epstein’s not talking about it, but the Cubs were one of only three teams to exceed the $206MM luxury tax line in 2019. Back in September, the Associated Press projected the Cubs’ penalty for this infraction to be $6.34MM. On the surface, it’s difficult to call the team cheap when they’re running a top-three payroll in baseball. On the other hand, it’s hard to see why a 20% tax on the overage would serve as a real impediment to any major market team. It’s worth questioning what would constitute a reasonable player payroll for these corporations, rather than taking their word for it or accepting the luxury tax threshold as a salary cap.
Back of the napkin, the Cubs have contract commitments of about $135MM for 2020, plus an arbitration class that should run around $44MM. There seems to be enough wiggle room for one premium player or at least several decent ones, right? But the reality is that the team’s competitive balance tax payroll is higher, estimated around $210MM for 2020 already. As the AP explains, “Luxury tax payrolls are based on the average annual values of contracts for players on 40-man rosters and include $14.5 million per team in benefits.” Every dollar the Cubs spend between $208MM-228MM comes with a 30% tax, and every dollar they spend between $228MM-248MM comes with a 42% tax. If the Cubs were to sign Gerrit Cole at a $35MM AAV, it would be more like paying him $48MM in 2020 due to the taxes they’d incur, and it would leave little room for other notable additions without accompanying subtractions.
On the other hand, with Lester, Quintana, and Chatwood off the books in ’21, the Cubs could get under the $210MM base tax threshold in that season, at which point all the taxes would go away. Would it be crazy to go to $247MM in 2020, pay a $14MM tax once, and then reset? I don’t think so, but $248MM represents a harder line in the sand since spending beyond that point would be taxed at 75%, and the Cubs’ top draft pick would move down ten spots. After going down the rabbit hole here, you start to see that there’s almost no chance the Cubs will add more than $38MM in CBT payroll this winter, and they could easily choose to draw the line at $18MM added.
It certainly seems like the Cubs will be sitting out on the major free agents for the second consecutive winter. Obviously, any of the big dogs would greatly increase the team’s chances of returning to the playoffs in 2020. With Cole Hamels having signed with the Braves, the Cubs’ rotation sets up as Yu Darvish, Kyle Hendricks, Jose Quintana, and Jon Lester. With Quintana, Lester, and Chatwood due for free agency after the season, another long-term investment in the rotation in the form of Cole or Stephen Strasburg would be worth considering. Third baseman Anthony Rendon is a tougher fit, as signing the game-changing star would necessitate playing Kris Bryant full-time at an outfield corner, and Bryant has never spent even 500 innings in the outfield in an MLB season. Or, Bryant could be traded this winter.
Bryant is only under team control for two more seasons, with a slight chance of 2020 becoming his walk year if he wins his service time grievance. Though Bryant winning the grievance is considered unlikely, I don’t see why, since the Cubs’ manipulation of his service time to gain a seventh year of control was the most blatant case in recent history. It doesn’t seem crazy to think that an independent arbitrator could rule in his favor. Regardless, if the Cubs are to seriously entertain trading Bryant this winter, it would have to be after the decision is revealed. Moving Bryant generally seems like robbing Peter to pay Paul, as Bryant is a five-win player who should earn around $20MM this winter, and that’s a great deal for the Cubs. Still, it’s possible to trade a five-win player and emerge better for it.
Who might pursue Bryant this winter? We could start with Rendon’s suitors. Bryant is about 19 months younger than Rendon, but Rendon has become better on both sides of the ball and projects to remain a little better in the short-term. The Dodgers, Rangers, and Nationals, as Rendon suitors, could view Bryant as an interesting Plan B, but those same clubs could also look at Josh Donaldson. If we’re assuming Bryant will mostly be deployed at the hot corner, the Angels, Braves, Phillies, Indians, Marlins, Mets, Rays, or Twins could be options. Bryant could be especially interesting for teams that would never be able to sign a player of his caliber in free agency. I can only speculate so much, but I imagine young, controllable starting pitching would be a key part of a Bryant deal for the Cubs. If the Cubs actually do move Bryant and don’t want to replace him with the large salary of Rendon or Donaldson, they could plug in David Bote as his replacement at third base.
Similarly, we’ve seen the suggestion the Cubs could trade catcher Willson Contreras this winter. Contreras, 27, is one of the best-hitting catchers in the game, and he has three years of remaining control. He’s poorly regarded as a pitch framer, so the teams that lost out on Yasmani Grandal won’t necessarily be all over Contreras. The Angels, Astros, Blue Jays, Mets, and Rangers could potentially seek a boost behind the plate and consider Contreras. But the Cubs, much like with any potential Bryant trade, would increase their own exposure by elevating Victor Caratini to regular status, especially with Grandal off the board. “The Cubs are going to make a move,” wrote ESPN’s Jeff Passan, so it seems that after years of threatening a possible position player shakeup, the club will actually do so to some degree this winter.
While the Cubs’ infield could easily be left alone, with Nico Hoerner stepping in as the regular second baseman, the team’s outfield situation seems more unsettled. Heyward has a spot locked down, and has at least settled in as a two-win player who could be used in center field in the short-term. I don’t think the Cubs want to commit to keeping Heyward out of his natural right field position, however, which is one reason a reunion with Nicholas Castellanos seems unlikely. Mike Moustakas, a pretty good but flawed position player without a qualifying offer attached, snagged a four-year, $64MM deal from the Reds. Castellanos, almost three and a half years younger than Moose, seems to have a chance at topping that contract. Given Castellanos’ defensive limitations and their current payroll crunch, that doesn’t seem like a contract the Cubs will find palatable.
Plus, Kyle Schwarber already serves the role as a solid bat-first corner outfielder for the Cubs, and he should clock in at half Castellanos’ salary without a long-term commitment. While Schwarber is certainly a trade candidate, the simplest scenario for the Cubs may be to leave him in left and Heyward in right, importing a quality starting center fielder. That would bump Albert Almora to a fourth outfielder role or trade bait, not that much return would be expected. The Cubs have Shogo Akiyama on their radar as a possible center field solution, according to Patrick Mooney of The Athletic. Jackie Bradley Jr. could be a trade option, though not a game-changer, and his $11MM salary projection is problematic. Starling Marte would be an excellent target if the Pirates are willing to move him in the division, and his $11.5MM CBT hit would be worth it. Aside from Akiyama, the free agent market is sparse at center field, with only Kevin Pillar and Brett Gardner qualifying as potential regulars. Though the Cubs’ center fielder doesn’t necessarily have to be their leadoff hitter, it would be nice to kill two birds with one stone. Akiyama has run an OBP of .385 or better for the Seibu Lions in each of the last five seasons, so the Cubs’ interest makes sense.
We haven’t talked yet about Ian Happ, the Cubs’ first-round pick from 2015. The 25-year-old has a career 112 wRC+ in 1,031 plate appearances, though the switch-hitter’s success has been largely against right-handed pitching. He’s been a man without a position in his big league career, though perhaps 2020 could represent a chance to earn semi-regular playing time in center field if the Cubs don’t make a significant pickup. Happ is also a trade option, though the Cubs could be selling low.
Moving Heyward to center field in the short-term is also palatable. That could allow the Cubs to consider free agents like Avisail Garcia, Yasiel Puig, Kole Calhoun, and Steven Souza. None represent a clear upgrade for the Cubs, however. Mookie Betts remains the crown jewel of the trade market, and of course would be a huge one-year addition for the Cubs. As the GM who drafted Betts, you’d have to think Epstein will at least inquire, but a salary projection near $30MM could be an issue for the Cubs the same way it is for the Red Sox. More down-to-earth trade options could include Trey Mancini or Whit Merrifield (who could also help at second base).
The Cubs would be well-served to think bigger with their open rotation spot than Jharel Cotton, Adbert Alzolay, and Chatwood, but it’s unclear how big they’ll go. I think they’d top out at a $10MM a year type of free agent, and possibly wouldn’t go that far. The decision not to issue a qualifying offer to Hamels showed, if nothing else, they weren’t comfortable risking him accepting a one-year, $17.8MM deal, even though that’s the contract he ended up getting from the Braves. It’s also quite possible the Cubs’ rotation will be addressed with an affordable young arm if they wind up trading a position player.
The Cubs’ bullpen is of greater urgency. Given their commitment to Kimbrel, they’ve got to try to fix him after a disastrous stint in which he posted a 6.53 ERA with nine home runs allowed in 20 2/3 innings. After Kimbrel, Rowan Wick and Kyle Ryan probably have spots locked down. Veterans Pedro Strop, Steve Cishek, and Brandon Kintzler are all free agents, though Strop has expressed a desire to return. Ideally, the Cubs would add a stable veteran who could step into the ninth inning if Kimbrel falters. Reliability is not easily found among free agent relievers, though Will Harris might fit the bill.
Assuming Bryant’s grievance goes the Cubs’ way, their core position player trio of Bryant, Javier Baez, and Anthony Rizzo remains under control through 2021. The three players should be good for 12 WAR at a cost of about $44MM in total in 2020. While that’s obviously not the strong competitive advantage of paying all three players less than $9MM total for 13+ WAR, as they did in each of the 2016 and ’17 seasons, it’s still a great price for the talent and not something to be squandered. Logically, if there’s a time for the franchise to take a step back and reset, it’s after the 2021 season. With the team’s payroll issues still in full force, creativity will be required by Epstein and company this winter.
Sorting The Skills Of The Non-Tendered Pitchers
A smorgasbord of new players reached the open market Monday, the deadline for teams to tender contracts to their arbitration-eligible guys. But did anyone particularly interesting join the class of available players? Let’s start on the pitching side and use several different key statistics from 2019 to determine whether any hurlers of real intrigue just became part of the current free-agent class. Admittedly, because we’re lumping starters and relievers together, this is an imperfect method. We’ll go with a minimum 20-inning limit to somewhat mitigate that…
Hardest Throwers
League average = 92.7 mph
- Blake Treinen, RHP: 96.7
- Junior Guerra, RHP: 94.7
- Josh Osich, LHP/Derek Law, RHP/Jason Adam, RHP: 94.5
- Yimi Garcia, RHP: 94.2
- Kevin Gausman, RHP: 94.0
Top Strikeout Arms
League average = 22.3%
- Yimi Garcia: 26.7 K%, 9.53 K/9
- Kevin Gausman: 25.3 K%, 10.03 K/9
- Ryan Buchter, LHP: 25.3 K%, 9.93 K/9
- Jimmy Nelson, RHP: 24.8 K%, 10.64 K/9
- Derek Law: 23.5 K%, 9.94 K/9
Fewest Walks
League average = 7.7%
- Josh Osich: 5.5 BB/9, 2.00 BB/9
- Yimi Garcia: 5.7 BB%, 2.02 BB/9
- Javy Guerra, RHP: 5.9 BB%, 2.26 BB/9
- Kevin Gausman: 7.1 BB%, 2.81 BB/9
- Alex Claudio, LHP: 9.0 BB%, 3.48 BB/9
Best Groundball Rates
League average = 42.7%
- Alex Claudio: 57.4
- Derek Law: 50.0
- Aaron Sanchez, RHP: 46.9
- Junior Guerra: 43.4
- Blake Treinen: 42.8
Least Hard Contact
League average = 38.4%
- Alex Claudio: 30.2
- Jason Adam: 33.3
- Josh Osich: 35.7
- Blake Treinen: 36.7
- Javy Guerra, RHP: 36.8