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Justin Smoak’s Strange Season

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Justin Smoak’s time with the Blue Jays is all but certain to come to an end when Toronto plays its final game this season. The rebuilding Jays will want to get a look at Rowdy Tellez, who has already begun to cut into Smoak’s playing time, and Smoak is set to become a free agent for the first time in his career.

As far as contract seasons go, Smoak surely can’t be thrilled with his results. He’s hitting .206/.342/.398 with 21 home runs on the year. At a time where seemingly everyone in the league has morphed into a power hitter, Smoak has cleared the fences 17 fewer times than he did in his 38-homer 2017 season. Waning playing time and a brief stint on the injured list have impacted that total, but the overall results aren’t ideal with free agency looming.

Smoak’s season, though, is also among the stranger you’ll come across when sifting through this year’s class of free agents. No one likes a .206 batting average, of course, but there’s also quite a bit to like about Smoak’s 2019 campaign. His 16.1 percent walk rate is the highest of his career by a long shot and is the sixth-highest of any qualified hitter in baseball. Smoak’s strikeout rate (21.1 percent) is down more than five percent from its 2018 level and is the second-best mark of his career. Only eight qualified hitters in baseball — Mike Trout, Alex Bregman, Mookie Betts, Joey Votto, Carlos Santana, Shin-Soo Choo, Tommy Pham and Daniel Vogelbach — have chased fewer pitches outside the strike zone than Smoak and his 22.9 percent clip. He ranks in the top 30 in terms of pitches per plate appearance (4.10). He’s been extremely disciplined at the plate.

A notable portion of Smoak’s struggles could be tied up in the fact that he’s had some poor luck on balls in play (.220). When looking into particularly egregious BABIP erosion, it’s common to see some trends that would portend to fewer balls dropping for hits — an uptick in infield flies, for instance, or for a player with Smoak’s skill set, perhaps a sharp increase in ground-balls. That hasn’t been the case, though. Smoak’s seven percent infield-fly rate is the second-lowest of his career, and his 36.9 percent ground-ball rate is actually down nearly three percent from 2018. His line-drive rate, correspondingly, is up nearly three percent. His fly-ball rate is right in line with his past four seasons.

So perhaps Smoak simply isn’t making good contact anymore? Not the case. Smoak’s overall percentage of balls hit at 95+ mph is down from 41.9 percent last year to 38.9 percent in 2019, but he’s upped his average exit velocity, improved his launch angle and very slightly improved his barrel rate, per Statcast. Smoak’s expected batting average of .242 and his expected slugging percentage of .472 (also via Statcast) dwarf his actual output. Among hitters with at least 100 plate appearances, the -.041 difference between Smoak’s actual wOBA (.325) and his expected wOBA (.366) is the ninth-largest. Put another way: Statcast considers Smoak among baseball’s unluckiest hitters in 2019. Not great timing for a player who’s about to hit free agency.

Of course, a poor season can’t be entirely blamed on rotten luck. Some of the struggles in terms of batting average are tied to aggressive shifting against Smoak — particularly when he hits left-handed (where he’s vastly better than from the right side). Smoak is MLB’s fourth-most shifted player when he bats lefty, and teams are shifting him 12 percent more often than in his monster 2017 season. As such, it’s barely been worth the effort for him to leave the box when he puts the ball on the ground. (I joke for the sake of hyperbole — run out your grounders, kids!)

Smoak is hitting .139 on grounders as a lefty and a ghastly .105 from the right side. Shifts are becoming more aggressive, more universally adopted and more precise; that’s going to hurt your plodding first basemen of the world, and Smoak is no exception. He’s already top-25 among qualified hitters in terms of fly-ball rate, but it’s easy to argue that he should strive to elevate even more. It’s also worth noting that Smoak is hitting .583 on line-drives, which sounds nice but is substantially south of the league average (.686) and his career rate (.711). Shifting likely plays a role there as well — but to a lesser extent. That’s one area where he seems likely to improve moving forward.

Given the leaguewide uptick in shifts over the past few years and Smoak’s decreasing speed, he’s probably never going to hit .270 like he did in 2017 (.270/.355/.529). But Smoak is also still making good contact and is more patient at the plate than he’s ever been before. He’s only been narrowly above replacement level this year by measure of wins above replacement, but there’s good reason to expect his bat to bounce back in 2020. The free-agent market has been particularly harsh for first base/DH types in recent winters, which could lead to someone getting themselves a nice bargain on Smoak.

Three Needs: Chicago White Sox

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We’re bringing back our “Three Needs” series, in which we take a look at the chief issues to be addressed for clubs that have fallen out of contention. We’ve already focused on the Mariners and the Tigers, and now we’ll turn our attention to a White Sox team that’s about to conclude its 11th straight season without a playoff berth. Led by general manager Rick Hahn, the Pale Hose figure to spend the offseason working toward putting a playoff team on the field in 2020. Here are a few things they need to address in order to make that a possibility…

[White Sox Depth Chart]

1. Upgrade The Outfield

If we’re to believe fWAR, no team has been worse off in the grass than the White Sox, whose outfielders have combined for a league-low minus-0.3 in that category. Much-ballyhooed rookie left fielder Eloy Jimenez has been the lone bright spot, though he hasn’t been a defensive stalwart. Everyone else has been downright terrible at the plate. The good news is that the White Sox have yet another super prospect, 22-year-old Luis Robert, nearing the majors.

Even if Robert comes up from Triple-A Charlotte early next season and makes an immediate impact, the White Sox will still need at least one more solution in the outfield. The club knew the OF was an issue last offseason, when it made at least a perfunctory effort to sign Bryce Harper, and now that Chicago’s a year closer to ending its rebuild, it should again place significant emphasis on the area during the upcoming winter. While the White Sox went after Harper last offseason, they also reportedly pursued a trade for Dodgers outfielder Joc Pederson, who wound up staying put. He could again be a trade target in a couple months, though, with Marcell Ozuna, Corey Dickerson, Brett Gardner, Yasiel Puig and the defensively questionable Nicholas Castellanos serving as surefire upgrades who could be among the game’s free agents.

2. Improve The Starting Staff

Right-hander Lucas Giolito has turned into a bona fide front-line starter, which is arguably the best news the White Sox have received this season. Too bad they can’t clone him. Giolito aside, Chicago’s staff clearly needs more sure things heading into 2020. Reynaldo Lopez, although promising, has struggled for a large portion of this season. So has Ivan Nova, who paces the team in starts and innings, and is slated to become a free agent over the winter. Rookie Dylan Cease has a ton of potential, but he has endured a difficult start to his major league career. And both Carlos Rodon and Michael Kopech are recovering from recent Tommy John procedures. Rodon had surgery back in May, meaning he certainly won’t be back for the early portion of 2020. Kopech went under the knife a year ago, so the hyped prospect could be a factor toward the beginning of next season. However, Kopech’s resume includes a meager 14 1/3 major league innings.

Chicago’s not known for winning free-agent bidding wars, evidenced by the fact that Jose Abreu’s six-year, $68MM contract from October 2013 still stands as the richest deal in franchise history. Maybe it’s time for the big-market club to buck that trend, though. There’s no reason the White Sox shouldn’t aggressively pursue the sport’s No. 1 soon-to-be free agent, Astros ace and potential AL Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole, who could command more than $200MM on the open market. They should also be in on lesser (but still capable) free-agent arms such as Zack Wheeler and Jake Odorizzi, to name a couple.

3. Shore Up The Right Side Of The Infield

The left side of the White Sox’s infield looks to be in excellent shape. Third baseman Yoan Moncada has turned into the stud the team originally thought it was getting in its 2016 Chris Sale blockbuster with the Red Sox. Adjacent to Moncada, shortstop Tim Anderson may be on his way to a batting title.

Unfortunately for Chicago, the right side of its infield isn’t as well off. Primary second baseman Yolmer Sanchez hasn’t been the answer at his position, while Abreu is slated to hit free agency. In the case of the latter, it seems there’s a solid chance of a new deal coming together. The White Sox and Abreu have made their affinity for one another known on several occasions, and the 32-year-old’s late-season hot streak could further galvanize the team to re-sign him. If not, though, first (and probably designated hitter) will need to be on the White Sox’s to-do list via the free-agent and-or trade markets.

Even more concerns are in the offing at second, though the White Sox will struggle to find a long-term solution there in free agency. Thirty-somethings Howie Kendrick (who has been fantastic this year), Brian Dozier, Starlin Castro, Ben Zobrist, Brock Holt and Jason Kipnis could be short-term targets there. Maybe even Mike Moustakas, a longtime third baseman who has gotten his first MLB experience at the keystone this year. The fact that any of those players would just be a Band-Aid for the White Sox might not be the worst thing in the world, as 22-year-old Nick Madrigal (another of their enviable prospects) progressed to the Triple-A level this season and shouldn’t be far from a big league promotion.

Of course, if the White Sox really want to think outside the box, they could go after a third baseman – be it Anthony Rendon, the premier position player nearing free agency, Josh Donaldson or Moustakas – and move Moncada back to second. Moncada spent the first couple years of his career at the keystone before shifting to third this season.

Three Needs: Detroit Tigers

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We’re bringing back our “Three Needs” series, in which we take a look at the chief issues to be addressed for clubs that have fallen out of contention. We started with the Mariners and will now turn to a Tigers club that is finishing out a brutal season …

[Detroit Tigers Depth Chart]

1. Work The Wire Aggressively

We’re focused here on reasonably attainable goals in a given offseason, not just identifying the very worst parts of a bad roster. And truth be told, it’s a bit of a fool’s errand to look too closely at specific areas of need. The reality of the situation in Detroit is that the organization is about as devoid of present MLB talent as any in recent memory. When a team is this bad, it’s not hard to identify areas to get better. Rather than focusing primarily on filling gaps, the approach this winter should be to accumulate as much talent as possible.

With the worst record in baseball, the Tigers not only have the first pick in next year’s draft (and in the upcoming Rule 5 draft), but top waiver priority from now until thirty days have elapsed in the 2020 campaign. That represents the first bite at the apple on any player who’s sent onto the wire. It’s a nifty benefit — if you’re willing and able to do the 40-man roster maneuvering needed to make it work.

Any front office must take care to protect their own prospects and manage the 40-man. The Tigers are no different. But a willingness to be aggressive with marginal veterans can help create additional openings. Having already sunken this far, the club can’t worry too much about holding open roster spots for lower-ceiling talent.

While GM Al Avila certainly has placed some claims since taking the helm — including a few quite recently — he’s nowhere near as apt to utilize that mechanism as, say, Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi. There are conceivable benefits to avoiding too much churn, particularly during the season. But working the waiver wire — both by claiming and in some cases attempting to outright previously claimed players — offers an intriguing path to securing the rights to interesting players and obtaining a first-hand look.

2. Don’t Shy Away From Trading Matthew Boyd

Hanging onto Matthew Boyd at the trade deadline may or may not have been wise. It’s impossible to pass judgment from the outside without knowing what was actually available in trade talks. Though it stinks for the Detroit organization that the 28-year-old has gone on to post a suboptimal second half, that doesn’t mean we should re-litigate the trade deadline call without further information.

So, what now? It’s easy to presume that the Tigers have no choice but to hang onto Boyd and hope he shows better in the first half of 2019, creating a new deadline opportunity. And that may be the likeliest outcome. But the possibility of a deal shouldn’t be foreclosed in advance.

It’s true, Boyd did take a step back over his past dozen starts. But he didn’t collapse. He has still averaged better than eleven strikeouts per nine in that span. While the walks and homers are up significantly, his physical skills don’t appear to have eroded. There’s no reason to believe he’s hurt. Most of the same things that made him so suddenly interesting remain in place, such as a 14.0% swinging-strike rate, 3.56 SIERA, and three years of affordable arbitration control.

When contenders scan the free agent market for options, they’re not going to see that kind of upside — at least, for anything less than a whopping financial investment. Boyd won’t require that kind of commitment. The Detroit club shouldn’t settle for just anything, but ought to be shopping a talented pitcher who is rather unlikely to be in his prime and in a Tigers uniform when the team is next competitive.

3. Consider A Multi-Year Free Agent Signing

Wait, what?! Yeah, I’m advocating for selling off the team’s best remaining MLB asset and generally abandoning any thought of near-term contention. But that doesn’t mean the Tigers should be in pure tank mode. The point is that they ought to be looking for ways to maximize opportunities to add value to the organization. And that can include adding MLB players.

The Tigers are three winters removed from a multi-year free-agent signing. You have to go way back to that 2015-16 offseason to find any big spending. There’s good reason for that, to be sure. But there are also reasons to consider the potential upside in exploring larger deals again.

No, I’m not saying the Tigers should be signing the next Justin Upton or Jordan Zimmermann deal. But continuing to ink one-year, fill-in veterans makes for limited upside. After committing $15.5MM, the club wasn’t able to cash in any of its most recent one-year signings (Tyson Ross, Jordy Mercer, Matt Moore, Josh Harrison) because all of these veterans ended up being hurt. And I need not remind Tigers fans of the disappointing outcomes of the rental sales of J.D. Martinez and Nicholas Castellanos.

The Tigers’ payroll obligations are falling off a cliff, with nothing committed from this point forward aside from the sunk costs of Zimmermann and Miguel Cabrera (along with one more payout to Prince Fielder). With many organizations showing a reduced willingness to give the extra year, there could be some opportunity to draw interesting free agents to Detroit. That could open the door to a class of players the Tigers wouldn’t otherwise have access to while also increasing the potential return that could be realized in a trade if things go well. Plus, spreading the risk of injuries over multiple seasons isn’t without its merit. With free payroll to work with, the Tigers should have greater risk appetite and at least pursue some bold strategies.

Poll: AL Cy Young Favorite

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We’re obviously not going to see a repeat Cy Young winner in the American League this year. Rays left-hander Blake Snell took home the award a season ago, but his output has fallen off somewhat since 2018, and he just returned from a several-week absence anyway. There’s another Ray, right-hander Charlie Morton, who may have a case to rack up some votes this season, but it looks as if the winner will be one of his ex-Astros teammates.

Righty aces Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander have arguably outdone every other AL pitcher this year. The numbers entering Wednesday’s action bear it out, as you’ll see below…

  • ERA – Verlander: 2.50 (first in the AL); Cole: 2.62 (second)
  • Innings: Verlander: 212 (first); Cole: 192 1/3 (fifth)
  • Strikeouts per nine: Cole: 13.66 (first); Verlander: 12.01 (second)
  • K/BB ratio: Verlander: 7.08 (first); Cole: 6.49 (second)
  • Wins – Verlander: 19 (first); Cole: 17 (second)
  • bWAR – Verlander: 7.8 (second); Cole: 6.0 (fourth)
  • fWAR – Cole: 6.5 (first); Verlander: 6.1 (tied for second)

Some of those figures have already changed tonight, as Cole is in the midst of a lights-out showing against the Rangers. As of this writing, the 29-year-old has fired six shutout innings of two-hit ball with eight strikeouts and zero walks. Cole now has exactly 300 punchouts on the season, putting him in fairly exclusive company.

Based on Cole’s enormous K total and the rest of the statistics above, it would be tough to make a case against him or Verlander. However, two other Texas-based starters – Mike Minor and Lance Lynn – have also enjoyed elite seasons. Minor ranks first in the league in pitcher bWAR, in fact, with Lynn not far behind. Despite that, the two Rangers are clearly facing long odds if they’re going to earn Cy Young honors over either of the Astros. Likewise, although Morton, Indians starter Shane Bieber and even Athletics closer Liam Hendriks have arguably placed themselves in the race with their marvelous performances, it’s improbable anyone from that trio will come out on top.

A first-time Cy Young win for Cole in 2019 would come at an especially opportune time for him, as he’s under two months from reaching free agency. Cole figures to rake in the largest contract on the open market then – perhaps a deal in excess of $200MM – and it wouldn’t exactly harm his bargaining power to collect the game’s most prestigious honor for a pitcher in the meantime. The 36-year-old Verlander has surprisingly won the Cy Young just once in what should be a Hall of Fame career. The former Tiger also grabbed the AL MVP that season (2011), and though it was eight years ago, Verlander hasn’t slowed down to any noticeable degree since.

Cole, Verlander and the rest only have a couple weeks left to make their Cy Young arguments on the mound. As things stand, which pitcher do you think is in the lead?

(Poll link for app users)

Who's the AL Cy Young front-runner?
Justin Verlander 69.97% (4,622 votes)
Gerrit Cole 26.64% (1,760 votes)
Other (specify in comments) 3.39% (224 votes)
Total Votes: 6,606

Howie Kendrick Is Still Killing The Ball

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It was June 11 that I wrote a piece titled “Howie Kendrick Is Killing The Ball.” At that point in 2019, the veteran National had quietly been one of the majors’ most effective hitters of the season. Kendrick was then the proud owner of a .333/.376/.604 line with a 149 wRC+ in 178 plate appearances, and though there may have been skepticism in regards to the 36-year-old’s early season excellence, he hasn’t let up over the past two months. The fact that Kendrick hasn’t slowed down has helped Washington rebound from a forgettable start to become the favorite to take the top wild-card spot in the National League.

Although the Nationals lost to the Cardinals on Wednesday, they’re still a game up on the league’s fourth seed. And Kendrick contributed even in defeat, chipping in a pair of hits in four at-bats and raising his season line to .343/.393/.577 through 346 PA. Among hitters who have walked to the plate 300-plus times this year, the infielder ranks second in average, 13th in on-base percentage and 15th in slugging percentage. His wRC+, 146, ties him with teammate/superstar Juan Soto for 13th in the league and also places him among the likes of Mets NL Rookie of the Year favorite Pete Alonso and Braves standout Freddie Freeman.

Kendrick’s current production is especially surprising coming from someone who has been closer to an average offensive player than an elite one throughout his career. That’s not to say the former Angel, Dodger and Phillie hasn’t been a useful player since he debuted in 2006 – he has, evidenced in part by his 32.5 rWAR/31.1 fWAR – but Kendrick has clearly found another gear this season.

As was the case a couple months ago, Kendrick’s 2019 output doesn’t look like a fluke. On the contrary, he has continued to make more damaging contact than just about every hitter in the game. Kendrick’s .424 expected weighted on-base average is tied for third in the sport with Astros Rookie of the Year-to-be Yordan Alvarez. The only players better in that category have been the Angels’ Mike Trout and the Dodgers’ Cody Bellinger, two serious MVP candidates. Kendrick has been similarly tremendous in other key Statcast categories, as he sits in baseball’s 94th percentile in average exit velocity (92.2 mph), its 97th percentile in hard-hit rate (50.2 percent), its 99th percentile in expected slugging percentage (.608) and its 100th percentile in expected batting average (.330). Can’t argue with that.

So why the newfound dominance from a player who entered the year as a lifetime .291/.334/.422 hitter? An increased emphasis on power has been key. The right-handed Kendrick has hit more fly balls and gone to left field more than at just about any other point since he came into the majors. Those factors have helped produce 16 home runs, Kendrick’s second-highest total, and a personal-best .234 ISO that’s almost 100 points above his career mark of .137. And Kendrick hasn’t sold out for his uptick in power by striking out more. Instead, he has fanned in a career-low 13.7 percent of plate appearances, swung and missed a personal-best 7.3 percent of the time and posted a matching walk percentage of 7.3. For reference, Kendrick came into 2019 with strikeout, swinging-strike and walk rates of 17.4, 9.8 and 5.3, respectively.

If there’s one way to attempt to pooh-pooh Kendrick’s numbers, it’s by citing his sky-high batting average on balls in play. On paper, it would be difficult to count on Kendrick replicating his .357 mark in that department in future years – especially considering the former stolen base threat lacks speed nowadays. That said, Kendrick has been known for running unsustainable-looking BABIPs throughout his career (.341 lifetime), so it would seem unwise to expect the mark to dramatically plummet going forward.

With just under two weeks left in the regular season, it’s apparent Kendrick is going to wrap up the campaign with pristine production. Whenever it does end for the potentially playoff-bound Nationals, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them make an earnest effort to keep Kendrick in the fold heading into 2020. The free agent-to-be is just a year removed from suffering a catastrophic injury – a ruptured right Achilles – but Kendrick now looks better than ever. Even though he’s an aging player in a game that’s becoming increasingly younger, Kendrick shouldn’t have difficulty finding a guaranteed contract beyond this season.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Poll: NL MVP Front-Runner

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We just polled the MLBTR readership regarding the state of the American League Most Valuable Player race. There’s a clear preference for Mike Trout, even if he’s going to miss the last few weeks of the season.

Injuries could well impact the state of the National League MVP voting as well. Not long before Trout hit the shelf, reigning NL player-of-the-year Christian Yelich went out of commission. Javier Baez might also have staked a claim with a big run down the stretch, but he has been out for a while.

Despite his recent injury, Yelich still has a great case to be made to repeat with the top honors. He’s pacing the National League with 7.7 fWAR and a 173 wRC+ while also carrying top-of-the-class counting stats (44 home runs, 30 steals).

The other top candidate is Dodgers stud Cody Bellinger, who has added value with the glove both at first base and in the outfield. He actually leads Yelich handily in rWAR, with an 8.2 to 7.1 advantage. Bellinger is also quite likely to end up with more dingers and is playing for the National League’s best team.

What of the National League’s leader in batting average, Anthony Rendon? The exceedingly quiet star has elevated his game in all respects this year; his .333/.417/.629 batting line has crept past Bellinger’s and Rendon has swatted a career-best 34 home runs. He also plays a mean third base. Oh, and if you want to place added weight on performance down the stretch, Rendon leads the pack in second-half fWAR and wRC+.

If there’s a dark horse, it’s … probably not one of the Braves’ several stars. The club has received big-time output from Freddie Freeman, Ronald Acuna, and Josh Donaldson. But none has performed quite to the individual level of the surprising Ketel Marte, who’s the fourth National League player to carry seven or more wins above replacement by measure of Fangraphs. Marte may not quite have the stature to vault past these better-known players, particularly since more of his value is tied up in his glove, but he’s sitting on an excellent .326/.387/.589 batting line (149 wRC+) with 32 homers.

Who’s your favorite? (Poll link for app users.)

Who's the NL MVP front-runner?
Cody Bellinger 38.76% (3,669 votes)
Christian Yelich 23.44% (2,219 votes)
Anthony Rendon 18.76% (1,776 votes)
Someone from the Braves! 11.98% (1,134 votes)
Other 4.23% (400 votes)
Ketel Marte 2.83% (268 votes)
Total Votes: 9,466

Three Needs: Seattle Mariners

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We’re bringing back our “Three Needs” series, in which we take a look at the chief issues to be addressed for clubs that have fallen out of contention. We’ll start things up with the Mariners, who opened the season at a sprint before hitting the skids …

[Seattle Mariners Depth Chart]

1. Invest In A Starter Or Two

Seattle’s re-set effort has brought the payroll back under control and added some interesting young talent to the MLB mix. It’d be hard to say this is a club on the cusp of a breakout, but it’s not hard to imagine a major improvement over the 2019 showing.

That said, the rotation is entirely underwhelming. Marco Gonzales has been good, but the club dealt away its only other starter with even one full win above replacement for the season. There’s good reason to give Yusei Kikuchi more time to adjust to the majors; perhaps the club can throw Justus Sheffield into the staff and hope for the best. But slotting in marginal veterans behind openers can only do so much for a team. There’s a dire need for higher-end starting pitching.

With Felix Hernandez hitting the open market, there’s only $75MM and change on the Mariners’ books, with no enormous arbitration salaries to account for. The club shouldn’t rush to spend, but there’s certainly some cash to work with here for an organization that has had season-ending payrolls of over $170MM in each of the past three seasons.

This is a good offseason for a team in this position. The Rangers have scored by giving somewhat aggressive, but ultimately fairly low-risk three-year deals to starters Mike Minor and Lance Lynn. The Twins once did the same with Phil Hughes. That’s a strategy to consider along with the traditional pillow contract. There are quite a few interesting but not reliably dominant starters floating around on the market this coming winter — ranging from Tanner Roark and Dallas Keuchel to Jake Odorizzi and Zack Wheeler. Old friend Wade Miley is out there, along with names like Kyle Gibson, Rick Porcello, Michael Wacha, and Alex Wood.

2. Use Late-Inning Opportunities To Chase Bullpen Upside

The Mariners would like to rebound right back into competitiveness, so they’ll need to try to form an effective bullpen. At the same time, the aim is rather speculative at this point and the existing unit is all but devoid of established players in key late-inning roles, so it’d be foolhardy to spend wildly on veterans.

Therein lies the opportunity for Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto. With high-leverage spots entirely unclaimed, the M’s can dangle that opportunity — along with the prospect of pitching in one of the league’s stingier home parks — as a means of attracting high-upside bullpen talent. Dellin Betances and Arodys Vizcaino (actually a member of the M’s at the moment) are both intriguing possibilities, with a whole host of somewhat older veterans that could be targeted on the cheap.

3. Consider An Infield Upgrade

The M’s have interesting options in the outfield and behind the dish. They’ve also got quite a few possibilities in the 3-through-6 spots, but perhaps also some room to make an upgrade.

On the left side of the infield, Kyle Seager and J.P. Crawford ought to be in line for the bulk of the work. Dylan Moore probably showed enough promise to serve as the reserve there. He can also factor on the right side of the infield, but that’s where there seems to be greater opportunity.

Dan Vogelbach is a piece of the puzzle in the first base/DH mix, but the club clearly prefers to utilize him as a bat-only player and he fell off hard in the second half. It’s anyone’s guess how Ryon Healy will bounce back from his health woes, so he can’t be relied upon. Austin Nola has been a nice surprise, but it would be hard to assume that the career minor-leaguer will hit enough to warrant significant time at first base. Prospect Evan White is on the rise, adding a righty bat to the mix, but it remains to be seen when and how he’ll transition to the majors. And then there’s veteran second bagger Dee Gordon, who is still a useful player but doesn’t seem likely to return to league-average hitting and shouldn’t be trotted out as a regular.

There are two ways to view this assemblage: as a potentially intriguing array of quality parts that can be maximized by deft deployment, or as an underwhelming outfit of unspectacular talent. No doubt the answer lies somewhere in the middle; to some extent, the Mariners will want to find out by testing. But the trouble with mixing and matching is that you can only do so much of it before running into roster limitations.

Adding a true, everyday piece at first or second base — especially if the M’s aren’t totally sold on White’s ability to become such a player in the immediate future — would greatly improve the overall outlook of the Seattle position-player mix. Perhaps the club could pursue Didi Gregorius and move him or Crawford to second base. Maybe the still-youthful Jonathan Schoop is worth a decent investment. The trade market could well be fruitful.

It’s not entirely clear at this stage just how appealing the options will be. And the M’s have a case for holding pat on the whole in the position-player mix. But that’s a nice back-up plan to take into the offseason while pursuing a significant improvement.

Early Trade Deadline Re-Assessment: NL West

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It has only been about six weeks, so it’s too soon to judge with finality how this year’s trade deadline maneuvers will play out. That said, we’re already most of the way through the period — the regular season portion, at least — for which rental players were acquired. Even players with future control are usually added first and foremost for their immediate contributions (though there are some exceptions). It’d be awfully premature to say anything conclusive about the prospect side of any deals, but we do now have some additional information with which to work.

So, that’s why we’re going to take a glance back over our shoulders at the moves (and major non-moves) that organizations made in the run-up to this year’s trade deadline. We already covered the AL Central, NL Central, AL East, NL East, and AL West. Now we’ll finish things off in the NL West …

Dodgers

With visions of Felipe Vazquez as the trade deadline approached, many fans likely came away thoroughly underwhelmed by the Dodgers’ efforts. But if making that deal would’ve cost Gavin Lux, then he wouldn’t be in the lineup right now.

Plus, the Dodgers are awfully good even without another high-end relief arm. The bullpen has some big questions, to be sure, but the L.A. organization is loaded with starting pitching options that can all be deployed in various ways come October. There’s no question that there’s a possibility we’ll look back and think the Dodgers should have done more, but it’s likewise impossible to argue with the organization’s process or results in recent years.

So, what did the team do? On deadline day, the headliner was … trading for lefty reliever Adam Kolarek. That seemed ho-hum, but he has been quite useful, allowing just one earned run in 10 1/3 innings over 21 appearances. Yep, he’s being utilized judiciously, but that makes sense. Kolarek has been bombed by righties this year but has held opposing southpaws to a meager .183/.227/.269 batting line. The player sent out to get him, outfielder Niko Hulsizer, acquired in return, didn’t really have enough action to change his outlook in any meaningful way.

Otherwise, the moves were even lower-stakes arrangements. Utilityman Kristopher Negron has chipped in well since his acquisition and the Dodgers probably won’t miss Daniel Castro, who hasn’t hit much in the upper minors and wasn’t likely to play a significant role this year or next. The Dodgers haven’t gotten anything from Tyler White, but also probably haven’t seen anything from Andre Scrubb to cause major regret from that trade. Jedd Gyorko hasn’t hit well since coming over, but that didn’t cost much either. Young righty Jeffry Abreu, sent in the swap along with the contract of Tony Cingrani, hasn’t yet thrown competitive innings with the Cardinals. The Dodgers also picked up international spending capacity and cash considerations in the deal.

Diamondbacks

The major move came at the very last minute, with the D-Backs parting with veteran righty Zack Greinke. It’s hard to imagine that free agent contract having a softer landing. In addition to shedding much of the remaining financial obligation, the Arizona organization added four high-quality prospects.

Only one of those new players, infielder Josh Rojas, has ascended to the majors. The 25-year-old owns only a .232/.318/.337 slash in 107 trips to the plate, but his monster season in the upper minors still makes him an intriguing player going forward. The other three were even more highly regarded talents. Slugger-in-training Seth Beer struggled after the swap but still holds ample promise. Talented righties Corbin Martin and J.B. Bukauskas will be looking to bounce back, respectively, from Tommy John surgery and a bit of a down season in the results department.

The Snakes figured to take a step back sans Greinke, but they actually managed to stay relevant in the Wild Card race. Young righty Zac Gallen has had a big say in that, having thrown 43 2/3 innings of 2.89 ERA ball since arriving in exchange for touted infielder Jazz Chisholm. That’s immensely promising for the Arizona organization, which will hope Gallen can sustain his breakout year. On the other side of that deal, it’s fair to note that the 21-year-old Chisholm put his struggles behind him to finish with a strong .284/.383/.494 (156 wRC+) run after going into the Miami system.

With a continued eye to making sound baseball decisions for sustainable competitiveness, the Diamondbacks finally hammered out a swap for sturdy but unexciting starter Mike Leake. The veteran righty had a no-trade clause and personal reasons to prefer pitching in Arizona, which may have helped the Snakes work out a solid deal that cost only $6MM in total salary obligations and Jose Caballero. The young infielder struggled to a .256/.339/.333 batting line at the High-A level after the deal.

The D-Backs got some cash in exchange for catcher John Ryan Murphy, but otherwise that was it for mid-summer roster moves. It’s easy to like the overall slate of changes, though we’ll need to track them to see how it all shakes out over the long haul.

Giants

Also busy were the Giants, who faced a tricky deadline situation owing to a hot streak that had the club in Wild Card contention. Ultimately, the team decided not to sell of quality lefties Madison Bumgarner and Will Smith — each of whom might have brought back significant returns. The former is sure to receive a qualifying offer and the latter is a candidate as well, so there are still some paths to achieving future value, but the organization knew it was making some sacrifices by holding on to these pitchers.

The San Francisco denizens did move quite a few other hurlers. Chief among them was righty Sam Dyson (link), who will be eligible for arbitration one final time in 2020. Unfortunately, he has struggled badly in just a dozen appearances with the Twins and is now under consideration for a season-ending shoulder procedure. That doesn’t look great for Minnesota, though questions remain on the other side of the swap as well. Power-hitting outfielder Jaylin Davis laid waste to Triple-A but has struggled in his first, brief foray into the majors. We won’t know for quite some time what the Giants really have in young pitching prospects Kai-Wei Teng and Prelander Berroa.

The well-timed reemergence of southpaw Drew Pomeranz allowed the Giants to package him with power righty Ray Black in a deal that landed long-lauded infield prospect Mauricio Dubon. Pomeranz has been useful in Milwaukee but is a pure rental; Black still hasn’t shown his big heat can consistently retire MLB hitters. Meanwhile, the 25-year-old Dubon has turned in an impressive .302/.327/.547 run in his first 55 plate appearances at the game’s highest level. That showing could make him the favorite to handle second base next year in San Francisco. The club made way by dropping veteran Scooter Gennett, who had been acquired as a buy-low replacement for Joe Panik.

The other significant reliever swap involved high-priced veteran Mark Melancon. It was surprising to see the Giants shed all of the veteran’s remaining salary obligations. He has a strong 20:2 K/BB ratio in 15 2/3 frames since the deal, along with ten saves, but hasn’t consistently kept runs off the board. The Giants have to be pleased with what they saw from the player they added in that swap. Young righty Tristan Beck threw 35 2/3 innings of 2.27 ERA ball, with 9.3 K/9 against 3.3 BB/9, for the club’s High-A affiliate.

Rounding things out for the Giants, the team took a shot on outfielder Joe McCarthy, who has not yet figured things out at Triple-A. The cost was younger prospect Jacob Lopez, who is still in the low minors but generated solid results this year.

Padres

The deadline turned out to be all about one man: Taylor Trammell. Long considered an uber-talented outfielder, the former first-round pick was plainly targeted by the Padres. It took a complicated, three-team arrangement to make it happen, but the San Diego organization now has a player that it views as the center fielder of the future.

Trammell remains an unfinished product. He wrapped up the season on a hot streak but ultimately carried only a .229/.316/.381 slash in his 133 Double-A plate appearances after the swap. The Friars are betting on their ability to finish off his development and surely hope they bought at a relative low point.

Making the deal cost the Pads a few quality assets. Young outfielder Franmil Reyes hasn’t yet settled in with his new team, posting 56 strikeouts in 161 plate appearances, but he comes with loads of cheap control and ample potential. Southpaw Logan Allen has mostly struggled this year, but he is another player that could soon be a quality MLB contributor. The Padres also parted with far-away youngster Victor Nova. Clearly, the San Diego end of this swap will take many years to evaluate in full.

It was otherwise a fairly quiet deadline period. The Padres got nothing from Carl Edwards Jr. after adding him from the Cubs; he seems a non-tender candidate this fall. Meanwhile, lefty Brad Wieck has been a surprising contributor in Chicago since that swap was completed. The 27-year-old has eleven strikeouts without a walk in 5 1/3 appearances. Also heading out of San Diego was righty reliever, Phil Maton, who has thus far been useful but unremarkable in Cleveland.

Rockies

Typically, when a team enters a season intending to contend and finds itself buried by the trade deadline, there’s a sell-off. Not so in Colorado — and for good reason. The club just didn’t have any assets that made sense to move. The higher-priced veterans haven’t performed well enough to generate appreciable cost savings, while the club’s core talent can’t be shipped out without leaving un-fillable holes. While some Charlie Blackmon explorations reportedly took place, that never seemed likely to result in a move and in the end fizzled out.

So … all we’re left with was this stirring blockbuster with the Yankees: the acquisition of right-hander Joe Harvey for minor league left-hander Alfredo Garcia. Harvey is a MLB-ready reliever who has shown some strikeout ability in the minors, though his initial transition to the highest level of the game hasn’t been especially promising. Garcia generated good results on both sides of the swap, but he’s a low-A player who is a long way from the bigs.

Poll: AL MVP Front-Runner

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The American League Most Valuable Player race took an unfortunate turn over the weekend when the Angels ruled transcendent center fielder Mike Trout out for the rest of the season. The out-of-contention Angels have nothing to left to play for, but the final couple weeks of the year could have helped Trout, a future Hall of Famer, bolster his MVP case. The 28-year-old has already won the award twice (arguably not enough times considering his brilliance to this point), and he looked like the favorite to take home the honors again this season before a foot injury took him down. Trout could still end up as the AL MVP, but given that he’s on a bad team and hasn’t played since Sept. 7, it’s increasingly likely a challenger will rise up and win it.

If we’re to believe Fangraphs’ version of wins above replacement, 10 American League hitters have been worth at least 5.0 fWAR this year. Trout’s easily in first place, having racked up 8.6 fWAR, while Astros third baseman Alex Bregman’s next at 7.4. Underrated Athletics shortstop Marcus Semien (6.6) is one of three players thereafter who have bettered the 6.0 mark, with Red Sox right fielder/reigning AL MVP Mookie Betts (6.3) and shortstop Xander Bogaerts (6.2) filling out the group. Beyond them, there’s Astros outfielder George Springer, A’s third baseman Matt Chapman, Red Sox third bagger Rafael Devers, Yankees utilityman DJ LeMahieu and White Sox third baseman Yoan Moncada with 5.0 fWAR.

There are also six starting pitchers in the bunch with 5.0 or more fWAR – the Astros’ Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander, the Rangers’ Lance Lynn, the Rays’ Charlie Morton, the Indians’ Shane Bieber and the White Sox’s Lucas Giolito – for what it’s worth. However, it’s incredibly difficult for a pitcher to earn MVP honors. Verlander pulled it off back in 2011, but he was the first hurler since 1992 to do so. It’s improbable he or any other pitcher will accomplish the feat this year. Likewise, it’s difficult to imagine a player on a non-contender (Trout aside) earning the MVP this year. That may well rule out anyone from the two Sox-wearing teams.

By process of elimination, the MVP race might come down to Trout, Bregman, Semien, Springer (though it’s tough to see him winning when teammate Bregman has clearly been the more valuable player), Chapman (who’d likely lose votes to Semien) and LeMahieu.

Of course, it’s highly doubtful the voters will make the decision largely by the polarizing WAR stat, and understandably so. There will be plenty who place the most value on the dominance of Trout despite his team’s fecklessness. Others will give the nod to Bregman, who has been on an absolute tear in the season’s second half (the same goes for Semien, by the way). Meanwhile, LeMahieu has thrived as a multi-positional player in the game’s biggest market after joining the Yankees last offseason on what now looks like a bargain contract of two years and $24MM.

The Yankees and Astros are heading to the playoffs as elite teams, which could help their MVP contenders’ causes. The A’s are also likely on their way, so the same applies to their prospective MVPs. All said, it’ll be an interesting final couple weeks of the regular season as all of the above vie for the award. As of now, which player do you think should win?

(Poll link for app users)

Who's the AL MVP front-runner?
Trout 59.02% (5,446 votes)
Bregman 19.16% (1,768 votes)
LeMahieu 15.50% (1,430 votes)
Semien 3.40% (314 votes)
Other (specify in comments) 2.93% (270 votes)
Total Votes: 9,228

Poll: Stephen Strasburg’s Opt-Out Decision

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Nationals right-hander Stephen Strasburg is one of a few major leaguers who will have an interesting opt-out decision to make once the offseason arrives. Strasburg will still have four years and $100MM left on the extension he signed with the Nationals in 2016 then, but he has done well in 2019 to make a case for a raise. However, there are extenuating circumstances that could prevent Strasburg from taking the gamble on entering free agency over the winter.

By now, everyone who follows baseball closely knows Strasburg’s story. He’s a former No. 1 overall pick and uber-prospect who debuted with great fanfare in 2010, has dealt with myriad injuries since then, but has largely been outstanding when healthy enough to take the mound. Now, with a potential trip to the open market looming, the 31-year-old is arguably better than ever.

While Strasburg doesn’t throw as hard as he did in his younger days, it hasn’t served as a detriment to his results. He’s at full strength now, having made 30 starts and amassed 191 innings, and has logged a 3.49 ERA/3.22 FIP with 10.79 K/9 against 2.31 BB/9. Strasburg ranks fourth among qualified starters in innings, seventh in fWAR (5.4), 16th in K/BB ratio (4.67) and 31st among all pitchers in expected weighted on-base average against (.261, which isn’t far from the .270 real wOBA hitters have registered off him). Teammate Max Scherzer rightly gets the lion’s share of attention when it comes to Nats starters, but this year’s version of Strasburg has been lights-out. Previous iterations haven’t been far off, injuries notwithstanding.

Besides Astros co-ace Gerrit Cole, it’s tough to find a better starter than Strasburg who could reach the open market in a couple months. Strasburg, if he opts out, wouldn’t approach the $200MM mark, as Cole could. But Strasburg might be able to outdo the $100MM he’d leave on the table by vacating his current deal. The Boras Corporation client would obviously be taking an enormous risk by heading to free agency, though, as the market hasn’t been enamored of 30-somethings who come with qualifying offers (as Strasburg undoubtedly would) in recent years. That said, there have been over-30 pitchers who have raked in nine figures in free agency in recent years. To name just a couple prominent examples, Zack Greinke got six years and $206.5MM from the Diamondbacks before 2016, when he was set to turn 32. The Cubs gave Yu Darvish $126MM over six years going into 2018, in which he also turned 32.

The Greinke and Darvish deals haven’t worked out swimmingly for the clubs that distributed them, as the D-backs traded a still-highly effective Greinke to the Astros a month and a half ago because they wanted his money off the books. Darvish, meanwhile, has done solid work this season (he struck out 14 in his most recent start Thursday), but 2018 wasn’t a banner year. Overall, he probably hasn’t given the Cubs the type of production they envisioned upon signing him. Those are just a couple cautionary tales that could scare teams away from giving a massive amount of money to an aging Strasburg.

For Strasburg, the recent difficulties accomplished 30-plus starters Jake Arrieta and Dallas Keuchel – both with Cy Youngs on their mantles – have encountered in free agency could scare him away from opting out. Arrieta did land a three-year, $75MM guarantee from the Phillies entering 2018, but that was far less than he sought when he hit the market. Keuchel made out way worse last offseason, sitting without a job until he accepted a one-year, $13MM offer from the Braves this past June.

Of course, it’s quite possible Strasburg could exit his contract and stay with the Nationals. Longtime Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw ended last offseason with an opt-out on the two years and $65MM remaining on his pact, but the two sides quickly struck a new agreement for three years and $93MM. Perhaps the Nationals and Strasburg will come together on a similar arrangement that tacks on another year(s) and more money. In the meantime, they and Strasburg will try to win their first World Series (or at least their first playoff series) in the next couple months. After that, his opt-out choice will be a fascinating story to follow. As of now, how do you expect things to play out?

(Poll link for app users)

What do you think Stephen Strasburg will do?
He'll keep his current deal 51.83% (2,567 votes)
He'll opt out 48.17% (2,386 votes)
Total Votes: 4,953
Show all

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