Headlines

Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

MLBTR Originals

Will The Red Sox & Indians Make The Playoffs?

By | at

The Red Sox and Indians entered the 2019 season as popular picks to earn playoff berths. Both teams have been powerhouses in recent years, including in 2018, when the Red Sox went 108-54 en route to a World Series title and the Indians took home their third consecutive AL Central crown. Two-plus months into the season, though, Boston and Cleveland have had to sail through rougher waters than expected. Both teams are just a tad over .500 (the Red Sox are 34-32, the Indians 33-32) and currently sitting outside the AL playoff picture.

Just about everything that could have gone right did for the Red Sox a year ago. Their position players paced the entire league in runs and led the AL in fWAR, and their pitchers were toward the top of the game in ERA and fWAR. None of that’s true this season, however. While Boston continues to enjoy a formidable offense, it’s not the juggernaut it was a season ago. Last year’s AL MVP, Mookie Betts, as well as J.D. Martinez,  Andrew Benintendi, World Series MVP Steve Pearce and Jackie Bradley Jr. have all seen their numbers dip. Much-improved production from Rafael Devers and Christian Vazquez hasn’t been enough to offset the fallen output of that important group.

On the pitching side, ace Chris Sale has come back with a vengeance from a dreadful start, while David Price has also been outstanding. At the same time, though, late-2018 hero Nathan Eovaldi has barely pitched because of an elbow injury (and has struggled when he has taken the mound). Meanwhile, Eduardo Rodriguez’s run prevention has tailed off, though his peripherals are encouraging, Rick Porcello hasn’t been close to his best self and enemy offenses have roughed up Hector Velazquez. Those starters have handed off to a bullpen that has been somewhat shaky in adjusting to life without the departed Craig Kimbrel and Joe Kelly.

The Indians’ relief unit has taken enormous steps forward since 2018, on the other hand. It’s the rest of their roster that has gone backward. Top starters Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, Carlos Carrasco and Mike Clevinger have either battled serious injuries/illnesses or drastically underachieved. Francisco Lindor is having another great year, but his pal Jose Ramirez has gone from an MVP-level player to someone who can barely lift his OPS over .600. Michael Brantley’s now in Houston, replaced by players who have been incapable of matching his 2018 production. Jason Kipnis has been horrific, and the Indians’ offseason decision to trade Yandy Diaz for Jake Bauers simply hasn’t worked out to this point.

The Indians’ mediocre play has left them a whopping 10 1/2 games behind the AL Central-leading Twins. As a result, the Tribe may have to consider making some difficult decisions this summer as the July 31 trade deadline draws nearer. For now, though, the Indians are very much in the wild-card hunt, behind the surprising Rangers by a game and a half. Boston’s even closer to Texas, which it trails by one and began a four-game series against Monday, but might have trouble overcoming the seven-game advantage the Rays and Yankees have built in the AL East. By the time the regular season wraps up, do you expect the Indians and Red Sox to be part of the league’s playoff field?

(Poll link for app users)

Trade Candidate: Will Smith

By | at

Considering Will Smith is the subject of this piece, let’s dispense with the obligatory “Fresh Prince of Bel-Air” reference right away: Smith is treating opposing hitters about as well as Uncle Phil treated Jazz. Between that and the fact that the Giants are way out of contention, Smith stands out as one of the majors’ most obvious trade chips leading up to the July 31 deadline. San Francisco president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi is almost sure to part with Smith, a soon-to-be 30-year-old who’s slated to reach free agency after the season.

Smith, a left-handed reliever, has offered nothing but quality production since he shifted to the Royals’ bullpen in 2013. From then through last season, Smith posted a 3.00 ERA/2.81 FIP with 11.94 K/9 and 3.36 BB/9 across 251 2/3 innings divided among Kansas City, Milwaukee and San Francisco. And the 2019 version is arguably the best one yet. In addition to recording a 2.19 ERA/1.97 FIP with 12.77 K/9, 1.82 BB/9, a 46.4 percent groundball rate and a lofty 21.4 percent infield fly rate over 24 2/3 frames, Smith has converted all 14 of his save opportunities.

As you’d expect from Smith’s sterling production, he has been death on batters of either handedness. Lefties have slashed .182/.217/.182 against him, while righties have put up an almost-as-weak .145/.197/.290 line. Hitters have only managed a .234 batting average on balls in play against Smith, which could prove to be unsustainable, but it doesn’t look as if they’re primed to start teeing off on him. Smith’s .220 weighted on-base average ranks fifth among all pitchers, and indicates the .205 real wOBA he has offered is mostly legitimate. Not only is Smith’s xwOBA in the league’s 99th percentile, but his strikeout rate (98th percentile), expected slugging percentage (98th percentile) and expected batting average (93rd percentile) all sit near the very top of the sport.

It’s fair to say the Giants have an ppealing trade piece on their hands in Smith, especially given his reasonable salary ($4.23MM). Smith was already a key deadline piece earlier in his career when the Giants acquired him from the Brewers for two prospects in 2016. Those prospects, Andrew Susac and Phil Bickford, didn’t pan out for the Brewers, but the return was nonetheless a haul at the time. Both Susac and Bickford ranked among the game’s top 65 prospects.

Smith’s a better pitcher now than he was then, but it’s unlikely he’ll bring a similar bounty in this summer’s inevitable trade. He’s only a rental, after all. Still, as at least the most valuable lefty reliever on the block (unless the Indians decide to dangle Brad Hand or the Pirates do the same with Felipe Vazquez), moving him should help the Giants strengthen their fallow farm system. With that said, it’s worth revisiting what the top impending free-agent relievers who changed hands in advance of last July’s deadline brought back in deals. We’re talking about Joakim Soria, Jeurys Familia, Kelvin Herrera and Zach Britton. Aside from Britton, who hadn’t pitched much last year at the time of his trade because of injuries, each member of that group fared somewhat similarly to how Smith has this season.

Soria garnered two prospects, lefty Kodi Medeiros and righty Wilber Perez, when the White Sox traded him and $1MM in salary relief to the Brewers. Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs didn’t sound too bullish on the White Sox’s return at the time, pointing to Medeiros’ difficulty throwing strikes and retiring righties and calling Perez “a fringe prospect.”

The Mets’ decision to send Familia (and his remaining $3MM in salary) to the A’s netted New York third baseman Will Toffey, righty Bobby Wahl and $1MM in international slot money. Keith Law of ESPN (subscription link) was among the many who panned the Mets’ half of the trade.

Herrera brought back three players – outfielder  Blake Perkins, third baseman Kelvin Gutierrez, and righty Yohanse Morel – when the Royals traded him and his $4.44MM in remaining salary to the Nationals. No one from that trio rated among the Nationals’ 10 best prospects then.

Likewise, Britton pulled in three players when his deal was consummated. The Yankees acquired Britton and his $4.44MM in money from the Orioles for righties Dillon Tate and Cody Carroll and lefty Josh Rogers. Tate was one of the Yankees’ highest-rated prospects at that point (No. 6 in their system, per Baseball America), while Carroll checked in at No. 15.

For the most part, none of the above relievers brought back inspiring packages for their final few months of team control in 2018. That may not bode well for the Giants this summer, though it’s certainly worth noting Smith has been better this year than any of them were last season. And with just over $2.5MM left in salary now and $1.39MM on July 31, he’ll come at a price any team could afford. Thanks to Smith’s performance, ability to close or set up, and affordability – not to mention contenders’ annual desire to upgrade their bullpens – playoff hopefuls will be beating down the Giants’ door in hopes of landing him.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

The Oakland Ace?

By | at

The Athletics haven’t seen one of their starters post a sub-3.00 ERA in a season since left-hander Rich Hill accomplished the feat in 2016, albeit during a truncated run in their uniform. Hill fired 76 innings of 2.25 ERA/2.54 FIP ball that year before the out-of-contention A’s sent him and outfielder Josh Reddick to the Dodgers for a three-player package. Now, three years later, one part of the Athletics’ return is on track for the top season an A’s starter has put up since Hill’s exit.

When he joined the A’s in the Hill trade, right-hander Frankie Montas ranked as Baseball America’s 82nd-best prospect. Despite Montas’ high upside, it was already the third deal involving him since he signed with the Red Sox in 2010 as a free agent from the Dominican Republic. The Red Sox traded Montas to the White Sox in 2013 in a large, three-team swap which delivered righty Jake Peavy to Boston. Two years after that, the ChiSox flipped Montas to the Dodgers in yet another three-club trade – this time to land third baseman Todd Frazier.

While Montas has been somewhat nomadic as a professional, it appears the 26-year-old has found a home in Oakland. Montas didn’t pitch in his first year with the organization because of a rib injury, and he then registered inconsistent results between the majors and minors in 2017. However, in logging a 3.88 ERA/3.90 FIP in 65 major league innings last season, Montas pitched his way into the A’s 2019 rotation. They’re now the beneficiaries of an ace-like version of Montas, who has amassed 76 innings of 2.84 ERA/3.04 FIP ball to emerge as one of the majors’ breakout starters.

Montas’ quality run prevention last year came with fewer than six strikeouts per nine innings, but that figure has rocketed to 9.36 this season. Meanwhile, Montas is walking fewer hitters (2.37 per nine, down from 2.91), generating far more ground balls (51.4 percent now versus 43.7 in 2018) and inducing significantly more infield flies (11.7 percent, up from 4.5). Unsurprisingly given those numbers, home runs haven’t haunted Montas, who has yielded HRs on 10 percent of fly balls. So the A’s have a starter who racks up strikeouts, seldom walks anyone, keeps the ball on the ground and stops it from leaving in the ballpark. That sounds a lot like the 2016 version of Hill, which is a high compliment.

The question is: How is Montas doing this? Well, it helps when you’re one of the hardest-throwing starters in baseball. His high-spin four-seam fastball clocks in at upward of 97 mph, which ranks fifth in the game and just ahead of stars Gerrit Cole, Walker Buehler and Jacob deGrom. Hitters have mustered an unimposing .279 weighted on-base average versus Montas’ four-seamer, and they’ve done even worse against his slider (.198) and splitter (.243), according to Statcast. Montas throws each of those pitches at least 17 percent of the time, but he relies primarily on his sinker (38.6 percent). It’s a drastically different repertoire than Montas offered in 2018, when his sinker (55.4 percent) was his go-to pitch. He also occasionally featured a changeup that’s no longer in the picture.

Of course, altering your pitch mix doesn’t guarantee stardom. You’d better be able to command those pitches, too. Montas has to this point. Heatmaps via FanGraphs (2018, 2019) indicate he’s doing a better job keeping his pitches down and locating fewer of them in the middle of the plate compared to last season. In the process, Montas has thrown more strikes in general, raised his swinging-strike rate from 8.6 percent to 11.1, fooled more hitters into chasing his offerings outside the zone and dropped his contact rate against by nearly 5 percent. When hitters have made contact off Montas, it hasn’t been particularly damaging, and that doesn’t look as if it’s going to change. After all, his xwOBA against (.283) is even better than the nonthreatening .292 wOBA batters have managed so far. Beyond that, there’s nothing unusual in the .306 batting average on balls in play Montas has surrendered.

When Oakland unexpectedly earned a wild-card berth in 2018, it used reliever Liam Hendriks as an opener because it was lacking a front-line starter. Hendriks ended up enduring a rough outing during a loss for the Athletics, who are once again in wild-card contention. And if the A’s make it back to the one-game playoff this year, they just may be able to turn to an ace-like hurler in Montas.

Regardless of how the team’s season shakes out, it looks as though it has a long-term building block in Montas. The fact that Montas will make a minimal salary through next season and isn’t scheduled to become a free agent until after 2023 is all the better for the low-budget A’s, who also have no shortage of other promising starters. While Sean Manaea, Jesus Luzardo A.J. Puk, James Kaprielian and Jharel Cotton have all dealt with notable injuries of late, the ability is evident in each case. With at least some members of that group eventually slated to join Montas in Oakland, the club may be on the cusp of boasting a controllable, talent-rich rotation.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Poll: Shopping Matthew Boyd

By | at

The Tigers may have helped develop a front-line starter in left-hander Matthew Boyd, whom they acquired from the Blue Jays in a deal for David Price in July 2015. At the time, fellow southpaw prospect Daniel Norris was seen as the best part of the Tigers’ three-player return, but it’s Boyd who has since emerged as the superior major leaguer. Now, with the noncompetitive Tigers amid a rebuild and not likely to return to contention in the near future, they may have to consider trading Boyd this summer.

Boyd debuted with the Blue Jays the same season as the trade and wound up turning in 57 1/3 innings of 7.53 ERA/6.59 FIP ball between Toronto and Detroit. He was much better over the next three seasons, including when he totaled 4.3 fWAR in 305 1/3 frames from 2017-18, yet still didn’t look like much more than an average starter. But Boyd has found another gear in 2019 – his age-28 season.

Across 83 2/3 innings this year, Boyd has already put up a career-best fWAR (2.8) that trails only Max Scherzer among starters. Thanks in part to a lethal fastball-slider combo, Boyd’s also third in the league in K/BB ratio (6.93), sixth in K/9 (11.16) and BB/9 (1.61), eighth in FIP (2.93), 15th in ERA (3.12) and swinging-strike percentage (13.4), and 25th in contact rate (73.2). Furthermore, there’s almost zero difference between Boyd’s weighted on-base average/expected wOBA against (.272 versus .271).

Based on his production to date, the 2019 version of Boyd has been an ace – and a cheap one at that. Relative to his performance, Boyd is earning a pittance ($2.6MM) in his first of four potential arbitration-eligible years. Considering Boyd is breaking through as a top-flight starter who’s under control through 2022, it wouldn’t be remotely surprising to see the Tigers go forward with him. That said, there’s a case for Detroit to cash in its best trade chip this summer, when Boyd would outrank Marcus Stroman, Madison Bumgarner and others as the most desirable starter on the block.

Even with Boyd in the fold, it doesn’t look as if the Tigers have nearly enough quality building blocks in the majors or minors to work their way back into contention over the next couple years. There’s hope in the Tigers’ starting staff in the form of Boyd, Norris and Spencer Turnbull. But the team’s premier reliever, Shane Greene, isn’t signed past this season and may find himself on another roster in the coming weeks. Switching to the offensive side, Brandon Dixon and Nicholas Castellanos have been the Tigers’ only league-average batters this season. The 27-year-old Dixon has struck out 37 times and drawn three walks in 98 plate appearances, indicating his bubble’s going to burst. We know Castellanos can hit, but he’s a free agent-to-be whose overall value is limited by his defensive shortcomings. Down on the farm, the Tigers do have prized righty Casey Mize – the No. 1 pick in the 2018 draft – but Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs still don’t see a special system in place.

While the Tigers don’t boast an elite collection of farmhands, trading Boyd would change that to a certain extent. He’d command a massive return right now, though it would be an agonizing call on the Tigers’ part to let him go. However, with Boyd’s value perhaps at its zenith and Detroit seemingly not nearing a return to relevance, general manager Al Avila may have to think about putting his club’s ace on the block. What would you do in Avila’s position?

(Poll link for app users)

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

David Bote: Starman?

By | at

Cubs infielder David Bote had one of the best offensive games of the 2019 season Wednesday, going 4 for 4 with a home run and seven runs batted in to help his team to a 9-8 win over the Rockies. The 26-year-old failed to reach base in either of the Cubs’ games since then, but he’s still off to a rousing start this season. After hitting .239/.319/.408 (95 wRC+) with six home runs during his 210-plate appearance debut in 2018, Bote has slashed .276/.349/.481 (117 wRC+) with seven HRs in 175 tries this year.

So far, Bote – an 18th-round pick in 2012 – is more than justifying the Cubs’ decision to hand him a five-year, $15MM extension in April. Bote was one of the least known players to receive a new deal during the league’s extension craze back in the spring, though he may be establishing himself as a long-term cog for the Cubs. However, it’s still up in the air whether Bote’s Year 2 improvement is real or a mirage.

As was the case last season, Bote’s walking in better than 9 percent of plate appearances. That’s a bit above the league-average mark (8.7). At the same time, Bote has slashed his strikeout percentage from 28.6 to 25.1, cut his swinging-strike rate a hair and made more contact. So far, so good.

On the other hand, even though Bote possesses better speed than most, he’s unlikely to sustain the .340 batting average on balls in play that has helped prop up his numbers this year. That’s especially true given that Bote has become much more of a fly ball hitter since last season. On that subject, it’s worth noting Bote has hit the ball with far less authority when he has elevated it this year compared to his initial campaign. Bote battered fly balls and line drives at a lofty 96.6 mph average in 2018, but that figure has sunk just below 93 this year, according to Statcast. Given that information, it’s unsurprising Bote’s expected weighted on-base average (.315) comes up well short of his real wOBA (.361).

While stardom doesn’t look as if it’s in the offing for Bote (not yet, at least), his value to the Cubs is apparent. The inexpensive Bote’s ability to chip in respectable offense while playing scratch to plus defense at second and third base is a package most teams would sign up for in a heartbeat. That certainly includes the Cubs, who haven’t recalled infielder/outfielder Ian Happ since demoting him to Triple-A prior to the season, may never see utilityman extraordinaire Ben Zobrist put on their uniform again, and have received woeful production from offseason second base pickup Daniel Descalso.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Finding Potential Trade Targets For Dodgers

By | at

What do you get for the team that has just about everything? That’s something Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman is going to have to figure out leading up to the July 31 trade deadline. At a major league-best 43-20, the Dodgers are well on their way to a seventh straight National League West title and perhaps a third consecutive NL pennant.

The Dodgers’ offense leads the NL in runs and walk percentage and ranks second in homers and strikeout rate. It’s strong against both right- and left-handed pitchers. And those hitters are hardly a one-dimensional group, judging by the Dodgers’ league-leading Defensive Runs Saved and second-best Ultimate Zone Rating. The club’s exemplary defense helps support a starting rotation that paces baseball in two key categories – fWAR and K/BB ratio – and sits atop the NL in ERA, thanks to Hyun-Jin Ryu, Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, Kenta Maeda and Rich Hill.

It’s clear the Dodgers are a team with almost no weaknesses. “Almost” is the operative word, though, because the Dodgers are likely going to have to augment their bullpen if they’re going to win their first World Series since 1988 this season. The Dodgers’ relief unit sits 18th in the sport in FIP and 20th in ERA. Although LA’s bullpen is sixth in the league in K/BB ratio, only closer Kenley Jansen and setup man Pedro Baez have been particularly dependable thus far. Even Jansen hasn’t been the dominant force we’re used to seeing. Meanwhile, Dylan Floro, Scott Alexander, Joe Kelly, Caleb Ferguson, Ross Stripling and Julio Urias have each been somewhat shaky as bridges to Jansen. Alexander, Urias and Ferguson represent the group’s southpaws, but they’ve all had some difficulty against same-handed hitters this year.

Given the struggles of LA’s bullpen so far, strengthening the group may be Friedman’s primary objective over the next couple months. Luckily for him, even after Craig Kimbrel exited free agency Wednesday to join the Cubs, there are plenty of quality relievers who figure to land with new teams in the next several weeks. Three of the best, lefties Will Smith and Tony Watson (an ex-Dodger) and righty Sam Dyson, belong to the non-contending Giants. While they and the Dodgers loathe each other and have rarely been trade partners over the years, times may be changing. First-year Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi, who was previously Friedman’s top lieutenant with the Dodgers, indicated this week that he’d be open to dealing with LA (via Brian Witt of NBC Bay Area).

“I understand there’s all kinds of emotional baggage going with that,” Zaidi said of a potential Giants-Dodgers swap. “Maybe the Dodgers are a special case, and I think most fans would say it’s not maybe, they just are a special case. But in general, I actually think trading in the division has a strategic advantage.”

In Zaidi’s estimation, trading with a division rival would give the Giants an opportunity to bolster their farm system at a hated team’s expense. The Dodgers’ system is among the best in the game, which should give them the upper hand on most teams when it comes to talks with the Giants or any other clubs’ relievers. Aside from the Giants’ potentially available late-game arms, lefties Sean Doolittle (Nationals), Francisco Liriano (Pirates) and Jake Diekman (Royals) and righties Ken Giles (Blue Jays), Alex Colome (White Sox), Shane Greene (Tigers), Ian Kennedy (Royals) and Mychal Givens (Orioles) stand out as relievers who might change hands this summer. Any of them could up in a Dodgers uniform as a result.

While Friedman may be eyeing bullpen help over anything else, that doesn’t mean he’s content with his team’s position player group. Granted, the unit looks set for the most part. Right fielder Cody Bellinger may be on his way to NL MVP honors. Rookie center fielder Alex Verdugo has held down the fort during A.J. Pollock’s injury-forced absence, which shouldn’t last through the season. Left fielders Joc Pederson and Chris Taylor have made for an effective platoon. Third baseman Justin Turner continues to excel, as do first basemen Max Muncy and David Freese. Catchers Austin Barnes and Russell Martin haven’t matched predecessor Yasmani Grandal, but the former has given the club passable offense and tremendous defense, while Martin’s a highly respected presence who has offered above-average hitting this season. Plus, the Dodgers recently called up quality prospect Will D. Smith, who’s off to a nice start (could we see Will Smith throwing to Will Smith this year?).

If there’s one position the Dodgers could stand to upgrade, it’s second base. Muncy has gotten a decent amount of reps there, but righty-hitting No. 1 option Enrique Hernandez has been abysmal against same-handed pitchers. Meantime, Taylor has taken enormous steps back after a couple productive seasons. That may set the stage for the acquisition of a second baseman. How about Whit Merrifield, whom the Royals would reportedly consider parting with for a significant offer?

The 30-year-old Merrifield would provide the Dodgers with an everyday second baseman – one who’s also capable of playing the outfield if need be – thereby kicking Hernandez and Taylor to the bench. Even amid his struggles, the right-handed Taylor has still notched playable production against southpaws this year. With that in mind, he could continue platooning with the lefty-swinging Pederson in the outfield.

As of now, it’s anyone’s guess which players the Dodgers will acquire in advance of July 31. However, based on Friedman’s history at the helm of the franchise’s baseball department, the Dodgers will be busy. From 2015-18, his first four seasons in LA, Friedman picked up almost 40 players between June and August. Some of them – Hill, Floro, Freese and Taylor – remain important members of the team to this day.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Mike Minor Isn’t The Only Interesting Rangers Starter

By | at

Mike Minor’s future with the Rangers is drawing plenty of headlines and speculation, here included, as the summer trade season approaches — and rightfully so. He bounced back from multiple years that were ruined by shoulder injury to pitch well with the Royals’ bullpen in 2017, post a solid season in the Rangers’ rotation in 2018 and now pitch like one of the game’s best all-around arms in 2019.

It’d be totally understandable for a rival team to express significant trade interest on a starter controlled beyond 2019 who is averaging better than a strikeout per inning with career-high fastball velocity and a 3.18 FIP in 74 innings. But that pitcher isn’t Mike Minor. That pitcher is his teammate — Lance Lynn.

Lance Lynn | Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

The Rangers opened more than a few eyes this winter when they signed Lynn to a three-year deal worth a guaranteed $30MM. Lynn signed a one-year deal with the Twins after the start of Spring Training 2018 and never really found his footing in Minnesota. He’s an oft-cited data point when teams express wariness over signing players after Spring Training has already begun. Lynn struggled to a 5.10 ERA in 20 starts for Minnesota, averaging a career-worst 5.5 BB/9 in that time before being traded to the Yankees over the summer. Signing him was a rather low-risk proposition for the Twins, but it went down as a largely failed move (and, perhaps, a notable factor in Minnesota’s decision to dismiss its pitching and bullpen coaches following the ’18 season).

Lynn’s ERA with the Yankees was unremarkable, but ERA is an oft-misleading stat. His K/BB numbers and fielding-independent metrics in the Bronx told another story and convinced Texas to spend aggressively despite Lynn’s middling bottom-line results. The early results in Texas weren’t much better. Lynn was tagged for five or more earned runs in three of his first seven starts — including a pair of clunkers that saw him surrender seven and eight runs.

His secondary numbers in March/April were better, though, and somewhere along the way Lynn began to find the same type of K/BB success he enjoyed in Texas. He’s been on an absolute tear over his past seven outings, pitching to a 3.30 ERA and 2.74 FIP with a 53-to-14 K/BB ratio through 46 1/3 innings. In fact, even with Lynn’s series of early-2019 meltdowns, if you look back to the time he was traded from Minnesota to New York, the numbers are eye-opening.

Beyond his pedestrian 4.35 ERA, Lynn has logged a 2.75 FIP with 9.7 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 0.56 HR/9 (despite playing home games at Yankee Stadium and Globe Life Park) and a 42.8 percent ground-ball rate. This year’s 93.7 mph average fastball is the best of Lynn’s career, and his spin on the pitch has increased for the third straight season — to the point where it now ranks in the 86th percentile of MLB pitchers. Statcast pegs Lynn’s expected weighted on-base average at .304 against its actual .321 mark, suggesting that based on the quality of contact he’s allowed, he’s been a bit unlucky to get the results he’s generated so far. He’s also more than three years removed from undergoing Tommy John surgery.

The $30MM guarantee on Lynn’s deal suddenly looks far more like a bargain than it does an overpay. He’ll earn $4.95MM from today through season’s end, $11MM in 2020 and $8MM in 2021 on a contract that concludes with his age-34 season.

For all the talk of Minor’s trade value, Lynn would draw significant interest were the Rangers to put him out there at this point. It’s not common to see a player traded just months into a three-year free-agent contract, though, and Lynn’s excellence actually in many ways only further calls into question how Texas should approach the summer trade market. Minor and Lynn give Texas two high-quality arms around which to help build a rotation both this year and next.

While the Rangers don’t have much beyond that duo — Adrian Sampson has looked intriguing in his past handful of outings but is still unproven — they’re also four games above .500 and in possession of a Wild Card spot at the moment. The trend in baseball is for teams to either commit to aggressively trying to win at all costs or completely tearing down a roster in a painful, multi-year rebuild, but the Rangers have never committed to a full rebuild and find themselves in a decent position nevertheless. They’ve pared back their payroll, added some interesting pieces in trade over the past few years, signed some high-profile international talent and are at least a fringe contender with a new stadium on the horizon.

Lynn’s success has been somewhat under the radar, but it’s been so great that it could arguably be described as a breakout rather than a return to form. He’s being paid comparably to what a mid-rotation starter might expect toward the end of arbitration but pitching substantially better than that. (He’s also on the mound tonight — so my deepest apologies to Rangers fans for jinxing him.) If everything falls apart in Texas over the next two months, he could be an interesting trade piece. But if the Rangers remain in the Wild Card picture and give their fans an unexpected postseason chase down the stretch in 2019, Lynn will be nearly every bit as vital to that Cinderella story as his more talked-about rotationmate.

The Offseason’s Best Minor League Signings (So Far)

By | at

The final two top-tier free agents are finally off the board — it only took until June! — but most clubs have long since begun to reap the benefits of their offseason additions from the open market. That includes those who partook in the annual grab bag of minor league contracts.

Each year, there are dozens upon dozens of recognizable names who settle for non-guaranteed pacts — perhaps more in this past winter’s frigid free-agent climate — and while most fail to yield dividends, there’s always a handful of gems unearthed. The Rangers, Reds and Pirates did particularly well in terms of signing players on minor league contracts this offseason, but there have certainly been other deals of note. It’ll merit revisiting this bunch after the season is over to see who maintained their pace and who stepped up in the final two thirds of the 2019 campaign, but to this point in the year, here’s a look at the most productive minor league signees of the winter.

Rangers: Hunter Pence, Logan Forsythe, Danny Santana

Hunter Pence | Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Much was made of Hunter Pence’s efforts to revamp his swing while playing winter ball in the offseason. Frankly, it’s not uncommon to hear of veteran players perhaps in the twilight of their career making alterations in an effort to stick around a bit longer. What is uncommon is for the results to be this eye-opening.

Pence hasn’t simply bounced back from a pair of awful seasons to close out his Giants tenure — he’s given the Rangers one of the best offensive performances of his 13-year Major League career. The 36-year-old has posted a resplendent .288/.341/.583 batting line with a dozen home runs, 10 doubles and a triple through 179 plate appearances. His 47.6 percent hard contact rate lands in the 91st percentile of big league hitters, per Statcast, and his average exit velocity of 92.6 mph is in the 96th percentile. Defensive metrics are down on Pence, which isn’t a huge surprise for a 36-year-old corner outfielder, but he’s hitting at a star level without benefiting from a gaudy BABIP (.299). If he can maintain this pace, he’ll have no trouble landing not just a 40-man roster spot this winter — but a solid salary to go along with it.

Pence alone would make for a terrific minor league add, but the Rangers are also getting the best form of Logan Forsythe we’ve ever seen (.299/.404/.472 through 172 PAs) and a strong showing from Danny Santana (.291/.333/.465 in 139 PAs). Those performances are a bit more dubious, as the pair improbably sports matching .388 averages on balls in play. But, Forsythe is walking at a 14 percent clip that he’s never previously approached outside of a 2017 season in Los Angeles where he logged ample time hitting eighth in front of the pitcher (with a 21 percent walk rate in such plate appearances). Santana can’t boast that same plate discipline — to the contrary, his longstanding inability to draw a walk is as pronounced as ever — but he’s making hard contact more than ever before while also stealing bases with great efficiency (7-for-8). Both Forsythe and Santana can move all over the diamond as well.

Reds: Derek Dietrich, Jose Iglesias

Derek Dietrich | David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports

Cincinnati has gotten even more production out of its minor league deals than Texas, although the two player the Reds landed on non-guaranteed contracts both came as a surprise. Even after Dietrich was effectively non-tendered by the Marlins, he was expected to get a big league deal. Iglesias enjoyed a solid season at the plate and has long been regarded as a stellar defender at shortstop. The Tigers jumped on a one-year deal with Jordy Mercer worth $5MM in early December, seemingly believing Iglesias would command more.

That neither player found his asking price met by the time mid-February rolled around has been nothing short of a godsend for the Reds, who scooped up both on minor league pacts. Cincinnati couldn’t have known that a spring injury to Scooter Gennett would create even more at-bats for this pair early in the season, but Dietrich and Iglesias have each been sensational in capitalizing on the opportunity for unexpected levels of playing time.

Dietrich has already pounded a career-high 17 home runs despite accruing only 157 plate appearances. Detractors will point to his new hitter-friendly home park, but Dietrich has a .377 on-base percentage, .541 slugging percentage and six home runs on the road this year. Besides, it’s not as if every member of the Reds has belted 17 home runs simply by virtue of playing games at Great American Ball Park. Dietrich has a career-best 9.4 percent walk rate and career-low 20.4 percent strikeout rate as well.

Iglesias, meanwhile, has batted .294/.335/.421 with four homers and a characteristically low strikeout rate (13.5 percent) in 2019 plate appearances. He’s already tallied seven Defensive Runs Saved with a +3.3 Ultimate Zone Rating in 477 innings at shortstop, making Detroit’s decision to move on from look all the more egregious, considering they went out and signed a different veteran to man the position anyhow. He’s not running like he did in 2018, but Iglesias has been a flat-out steal.

Pirates: Melky Cabrera, Francisco Liriano

Cabrera has been forced into minor league deals in each of the past two offseasons and will turn 35 later this summer, but the Melk Man just keeps on hitting. Injuries to Corey Dickerson, Gregory Polanco and Lonnie Chisenhall created an opening for Cabrera, and he’s responded with a .335/.376/.467 line through 179 plate appearances. It’s true that he’s benefited from a .366 average on balls in play, but Cabrera’s 11.7 percent strikeout rate is excellent and represents a continuation of the elite bat-to-ball skills he’s demonstrated throughout his career. The defense isn’t pretty — it never really has been — but Cabrera’s bat has been a huge plus for the Bucs.

The Astros tried Liriano in the bullpen down the stretch in 2017 and weren’t able to get the results they’d hoped. Liriano returned to a starting role with the Tigers in 2018 and found middling results, but he’s been reborn in the Pittsburgh bullpen in his second go-around at PNC Park. In 29 1/3 innings, Liriano has a 1.21 ERA with 32 punchouts, 12 walks and a 47.3 percent grounder rate. He won’t maintain a 96 percent strand rate or a .233 BABIP, but Liriano’s 14.7 percent swinging-strike rate is the best of his career. Even if he takes what seems like an inevitable step back, FIP pegs him at 3.08 while SIERA checks in at 3.82. While the game’s highest-paid free-agent relievers have largely flopped, Liriano looks every bit the part of a viable bullpen option.

Others of Note

There have been successful minor league signings outside of Arlington, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, of course. Eric Sogard, he of the former #FaceOfMLB and #NerdPower hashtag fame, has been a superlative pickup for the Blue Jays, hitting at a .290/.365/.481 pace with a career-high five homers in just 151 plate appearances. With several injuries and poor performances around the Toronto infield, his presence has been a boon to an otherwise disappointing lineup.

Sogard’s former teammate and fellow Oakland cult hero, Stephen Vogt, thought his career could be over at this time a year ago. Instead, he’s back in the Majors and enjoying a solid showing at the plate with the Giants. In 66 plate appearances, Vogt has hit .250/.318/.417, and Buster Posey’s recent placement on the injured list will only create more opportunity for playing time. The Giants cycled through an all-you-can-sign buffet of veteran catchers earlier this spring, and Vogt is the last man standing.

As far as other catchers go, Matt Wieters landed the role of baseball’s most seldom-used backup: the Cardinals’ second option to iron man Yadier Molina. Wieters has just 50 plate appearances on the year through June 6, but he’s going to see an uptick in playing time with Molina on the injured list for a bit. In his 50 trips to the dish, Wieters has connected with three long balls and slashed a very solid .277/.300/.511. His 15 strikeouts against just one walk could very well be a portent for struggles to come, but some more frequent playing time could also help the veteran find his rhythm.

Speaking of players who’ve succeeded in minimal playing time, right-hander Mike Morin has given the Twins 10 1/3 innings of terrific relief since having his contract selected in early May. He’s punched out seven hitters, hasn’t allowed a walk, is sitting on a career-high 56.7 percent ground-ball rate and has limited opponents to just one run (a solo home run). He’ll need to miss more bats, as he’s not going to maintain a .172 BABIP and will eventually walk a batter, but Morin’s newfound knack for keeping the ball on the ground is encouraging. (For those wondering where Ryne Harper is, he was technically signed in the 2017-18 offseason and is in his second year with the organization.)

In a similarly small sample of work — four games, 20 1/3 innings — left-hander Tommy Milone has given the Mariners some competitive starts to help out in their beleaguered rotation. Milone is sitting on a 3.10 ERA and 3.84 FIP, and while he’s never been one to miss bats in the past, he’s punched out 20 hitters against only five walks. His velocity hasn’t changed, but Milone is throwing more sliders at the expense of his four-seamer and changeup.

Over in Atlanta, the Braves have enjoyed their own bullpen find, as Josh Tomlin has pitched a team-high 32 innings of relief. Tomlin’s 3.94 ERA doesn’t exactly stand out, and fielding-independent metrics all suggest a mid-4.00s mark is more realistic, but he’s been a relief workhorse for a team whose rotation and bullpen have struggled mightily for much of the year. The 32 innings Tomlin has already soaked up have been vital for the Braves.

Elsewhere in the NL East, former Pirates and Blue Jays prospect Harold Ramirez is doing his best to continue earning playing time with the Marlins. He’s hit .329/.368/.427 through 87 plate appearances, and while that line has been buoyed by a .394 average on balls in play, Ramirez is making solid contact and isn’t striking out much. He batted .320/.365/.471 in 120 games with Toronto’s Double-A affiliate last season and .355/.408/.591 in 31 Triple-A games with the Marlins in 2019, so he’s earned a look at the game’s top level.

Progress Report: Last Winter’s 6 Highest-Paid Relievers

By | at

The Cubs made a rare June free-agent splash Wednesday when they agreed to a three-year, $43MM contract with potential Hall of Fame closer Craig Kimbrel. The 31-year-old entered the offseason as the premier reliever available, but interest in Kimbrel was surprisingly tepid and he wound up having to wait seven months for a contract. Kimbrel still hauled in the richest deal of any reliever going back to the opening of free agency last offseason, though that doesn’t make him a lock to thrive as a Cub.

As you’ll see below, all six accomplished relievers who collected at least $20MM over the winter have shown some troubling signs a couple months into the 2019 campaign. Although it’s way too early to pass judgment in any of these cases, it doesn’t augur well when a player’s not performing as expected at the start of his deal. After all, that’s when he’s supposed to be providing his team maximum value.

Zack Britton, LHP, Yankees (three years, $39MM):

Arguably the game’s foremost reliever with the Orioles from 2014-16, injuries helped lead to a bit of a drop-off for Britton over the ensuing two seasons with the O’s and Yankees. That didn’t stop New York from re-signing Britton on the costliest pact any reliever received in the offseason, though, and he has handed them solid results in Year 1 of the contract. The 31-year-old owns a 2.96 ERA/3.60 FIP in 27 1/3 innings thus far. The sinker-throwing Britton’s tremendous groundball rate (75 percent) is right in line with his recent totals, and he’s generating more strikeouts and issuing fewer walks than he did a year ago. On the negative side, the home run woes that began plaguing Britton in 2018 have stuck around. He’s yielding HRs on 25 percent of fly balls for the second straight season.

Jeurys Familia, RHP, Mets (three years, $30MM):

Familia surrendered three earned runs in 2/3 of an inning last Saturday and then sat for almost a week before taking the mound again Thursday. The previously reliable righty, who dealt with shoulder troubles earlier in the season, has now logged a horrid 6.29 ERA/5.26 FIP in 23 1/3 frames. A significant drop in strikeouts and swinging strikes and a sizable spike in walks and homers haven’t helped, though Familia’s inducing plenty of grounders and continuing to throw in the 96 mph range. The 29-year-old’s batting average on balls in play against (.338), strand rate (66.2), and enormous gap between his weighted on-base average/xwOBA against (.383/.321) indicate he has deserved better. However, it’s doubtful any of that is of much consolation to him or the Mets at this point.

Andrew Miller, LHP, Cardinals (two years, $25MM):

While Miller was a dominant force with the Red Sox, Orioles, Yankees and Indians from 2012-17, he endured an injury-limited, down year with the Tribe in ’18 and still hasn’t returned to form. The towering southpaw has given the Cardinals 20 2/3 innings of 3.92 ERA/5.48 FIP since scoring his contract. Miller is striking out upward of 12 hitters per nine, but he’s walking more than four at the same time (remember, his BB/9 was barely over 1.00 as recently as 2016). The 34-year-old has also already yielded almost as many HRs (five) as he did in 2017-18 combined (six). The good news is that Miller has allowed a mere two earned runs since April 27.

Adam Ottavino, RHP, Yankees (three years, $25MM):

Ottavino’s preventing runs at an elite clip through 28 1/3 frames as a Yankee, having posted a 1.27 ERA so far. However, there are some red flags with the ex-Rockie’s performance. Ottavino’s strikeout, swinging-strike, walk, chase and contact rates have gone in discouraging directions since last season, while his 96.4 percent strand rate isn’t going to hold. There’s not a huge difference between the wOBA (.264) and xwOBA (.276) hitters have mustered against the slider-reliant 33-year-old this season, but both numbers fall short of Ottavino’s .231/.233 combo from 2018.

Joe Kelly, RHP, Dodgers (three years, $25MM):

The flamethrowing Kelly has allowed at least two earned runs in five of 20 appearances, giving him an unsightly 7.91 ERA/5.18 FIP across 19 1/3 innings this season. Kelly’s walks and grounders have trended well thus far, but he has already allowed as many home runs (four) as he did last season – his final year with the Red Sox. The 30-year-old has also seen his swinging-strike rate fall by more than 3 percent and his contact rate climb by a hefty 8 percent since 2018.

David Robertson, RHP, Phillies (two years, $23MM):

Robertson entered 2019 as one of the best, most durable relievers in recent memory, yet he has been neither effective nor healthy in the first season of his contract. The 34-year-old coughed up four earned runs on eight hits and six walks (against six strikeouts) in 6 2/3 innings before going to the 10-day injured list April 16 with a flexor strain in his right elbow. Robertson moved to the 60-day IL on May 25, meaning he won’t return until at least midway through this month.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Poll: The Braves & Dallas Keuchel

By | at

The Braves are reportedly in the driver’s seat to land free-agent left-hander Dallas Keuchel, who they hope would provide a significant in-season boost to a so-so rotation. Aside from Mike Soroka, Max Fried and Julio Teheran, no one in Atlanta’s starting five has performed all that well this year. Even Fried’s bubble has burst to some degree since a tremendous start to the season, while Teheran’s peripherals provide far less hope than his sterling 3.28 ERA.

Beyond Soroka, Fried and Teheran, 2018 summer acquisition Kevin Gausman, ’18 standout Mike Foltynewicz, and youngsters Sean Newcomb, Kyle Wright, Touki Toussaint and Bryse Wilson are the only other Braves who have made starts this season. Gausman has long been a credible starter, but he has pitched to a hideous 6.15 ERA (albeit with a much rosier 4.03 FIP); Foltynewicz’s 6.10 ERA actually sits well ahead of his awful 6.68 FIP; and Newcomb and Toussaint are now functioning as relievers, serving as two of the most reliable options in an Atlanta bullpen that has endured no shortage of down moments in 2019.

Considering the difficulties of their pitching staff this year, it’s no surprise the Braves are pursuing Keuchel. The latest reports indicate the Braves could reel in Keuchel on a multiyear deal. Earlier this week, though, there were rumblings indicating the Braves weren’t keen on paying Keuchel the prorated portion of the $17.5MM qualifying offer ($11MM-plus) that he rejected at the outset of the offseason. Potential price aside, the Braves will have to ask themselves a.) how long it’ll take for Keuchel to get ready and b.) how effective he’ll be after sitting out several months.

Former Braves/Padres/Red Sox closer Craig Kimbrel just agreed to terms with the Cubs on Wednesday after a long free-agent trip of his own, and it’s likely he’ll be prepared to join Chicago within the next couple weeks. A similar time frame may be in the cards for Keuchel, who has been throwing sim games of at least 95 pitches in recent weeks as he waits for his next opportunity.

As for his on-field performance, Keuchel has generally been excellent since he broke out in 2014 – the year before he won his lone AL Cy Young Award. However, the longtime Astro did see his strikeout, groundball and run prevention numbers drop off to certain degrees in 2018. Having totaled fewer than seven strikeouts per nine a year ago, it’s fair to guess the quality of defense behind Keuchel will play a key role in his ability to stymie opposing offenses this season. With that in mind, it’s important to note the Braves’ defense has been one of the one of the worst in the majors on grounders in 2019.

Defensive concerns aside, it’s worth pointing out signing Keuchel would only cost the Braves money. As everyone who has paid close attention to his free-agent journey knows, inking Keuchel before June 2 would have meant surrendering both draft compensation and cash. Nevertheless, if you’re a Braves fan, perhaps you’d rather see them give up talent from their farm system in a trade for a starter (Madison Bumgarner? Marcus Stroman?) than sign Keuchel. The reigning NL East champion Braves are two games out of their division lead right now, so they may have to get this decision right if they’re going to overtake the first-place Phillies.

(Poll link for app users)

Show all

MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

Do not Sell or Share My Personal Information

hide arrows scroll to top