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Poll: Should the Mets Trade Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard?

By | at June 24, 2018 11:14am CDT

With the possible exceptions of the Blue Jays’ J.A. Happ and resurgent Padre Tyson Ross, it doesn’t appear any front-end starters will switch teams prior to the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline. Even though Happ’s amid a fourth straight quality season and Ross has bounced back from major injury troubles, nobody would consider either as aces or players capable of bringing back enormous returns in the coming weeks. The opposite is true in regards to the Mets’ Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard, two elite, controllable starters who have come up in trade speculation as the season has progressed.

With the Mets in the throes of an embarrassing campaign in which they’ve plummeted to 31-43 after an 11-1 start, odds are they’ll be inclined to sell before the deadline. And while they’re reportedly willing to listen to potential offers for everyone on their roster, their front office is divided over whether to actually entertain proposals for either deGrom or Syndergaard. One thing’s clear: Their farm system, which Baseball America ranks as the game’s fourth worst, would stand to benefit significantly if the Mets were to part with one or both of their aces.

Despite the potential long-term gains that would come from a deGrom and/or Syndergaard bidding war among contenders, making either available isn’t an obvious decision for the Mets. If New York’s counting on returning to relevance in the near future, both players would factor prominently into a turnaround, given that they’ll remain under affordable control for a while longer. The 29-year-old deGrom comes with arbitration eligibility through 2020 and Syndergaard, 25, isn’t due for free agency until after 2021. The Mets may elect to retain them, then, hoping that those two and a position player group including Brandon Nimmo, Michael Conforto, 2018 injury case Yoenis Cespedes, Todd Frazier, struggling youngster Amed Rosario and struggling veteran Jay Bruce help key a return to contention next season.

Part of the reason this has been a disastrous year for the Mets has been the absence of Syndergaard, who went on the disabled list May 29 with a a strained ligament in his right index finger. It’s the second straight year the Mets have had to make do for an extended period sans Syndergaard, who only threw 30 1/3 innings in 2017 on account of a partially torn right lat. Syndergaard’s reportedly progressing in his recovery, though, and his trade value remains immense – as Mets general manager Sandy Alderson suggested when speaking to the media Friday.

“I know how we view him and where he will be once we get him back and I know how the rest of baseball views him,” Alderson said (via Erin Fish of MLB.com). “For that reason I say I know what we have, but at the same time you never say never.”

Along with his “never say never” line, Alderson noted (via David Lennon of Newsday) that the Mets would have to consider offers for their aces if a team comes to them saying, “We’ll give you all of our top-20 prospects.” So, barring an absolutely overwhelming proposal for either deGrom or Syndergaard, it seems the Mets will retain the pair through the season. Should New York do that, though, or would the team be better off trying to bolster its farm system by moving one or both in the next month?

(poll link for app users)

What should the Mets do with their co-aces?

  • Trade both 35% (3,236)
  • Keep both 35% (3,209)
  • Trade deGrom 15% (1,438)
  • Trade Syndergaard 15% (1,418)

Total votes: 9,301

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MLB Daily Roster Roundup: Cervelli, Garcia, Joyce, Soroka

By | at June 22, 2018 10:15pm CDT

ROSTER MOVES BY TEAM
(June 22nd)

NATIONAL LEAGUE

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AMERICAN LEAGUE

  • CHICAGO WHITE SOX | Depth Chart
    • Activated from 10-Day DL: INF/OF Leury Garcia, OF Avisail Garcia
      • Leury played LF and batted 6th in Game 1 of Friday’s double-header.
      • Avisail played RF and batted 2nd in Game 1 of Friday’s double-header.
    • Promoted: RP Thyago Vieira 
      • Vieira was the 26th man for Friday’s double-header.
    • Optioned: INF Jose Rondon
    • Designated for assignment: OF Trayce Thompson
  • OAKLAND ATHLETICS | Depth Chart
    • Activated from 10-Day DL: OF Matt Joyce
      • Joyce played LF and batted 3rd in Game 2 of Friday’s double-header.
    • Promoted: RP Danny Coulombe
      • Coulombe was the 26th man for Friday’s double-header.
    • Optioned: OF Jake Smolinski

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FUTURE EXPECTED MOVES

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Trade Candidate: Zach Britton

By | at June 22, 2018 11:49am CDT

As the non-waiver trade deadline draws nearer, Zach Britton will be among the most oft-speculated and oft-rumored players to be on the move. It’s difficult to fathom a scenario in which the Orioles don’t trade their longtime closer, given that the alternatives are losing him for nothing or issuing a qualifying offer worth more than $18MM to a player who has currently thrown 41 2/3 innings dating back to Opening Day 2017.

Zach Britton | Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

It’s that level of uncertainty surrounding Britton, though, that makes his trade candidacy particularly intriguing. It stands to reason, of course, that several teams will be interested in the once-dominant lefty. FanRag’s Jon Heyman reports that the Astros (who nearly acquired Britton last July) and Indians are already in on Britton. It’s reasonable to expect that virtually every team within a stone’s throw of contending will check in on Britton (or already has checked in on Britton) between now and the deadline. But should Britton be considered a premium trade chip?

Britton is teeming with name value — and with good reason. From 2014-16, he was very arguably the best relief pitcher on the planet. Over that three-year stretch the southpaw posted a 1.38 ERA with 9.3 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 0.3 HR/9 and a historic 77.9 percent ground-ball rate in 209 innings. He set the all-time record for single-season ground-ball rate in 2015 and then broke his own record a year later when a staggering 80 percent of balls put in play against him were hit on the ground. Britton missed bats and limited walks, and it was virtually impossible to lift the ball against him. He was an absolute buzzsaw in the ninth inning. No relief pitcher in the game topped Britton’s 9.5 RA9-WAR in that time.

In the time that has followed, however, Britton has seen his 2017 season cut roughly in half by forearm injuries. Then, in the offseason, he suffered a ruptured Achilles tendon that required surgical repair and ultimately kept him on the shelf until mid-June. He’s only just now returned, and he’ll have scarcely more than six weeks to show contenders that he’s worthy of being deemed an impact reliever once again. Had Britton been his usual self in 2017, perhaps it’d be worth giving him the benefit of the doubt on the heels of a non-arm injury. But the 2017 version of Britton, in spite of a solid 2.89 ERA, simply didn’t look all that dominant.

Last year’s 18 percent strikeout rate (7.0 K/9) was Britton’s lowest since moving to the bullpen in 2014. His 11.5 swinging-strike rate was his lowest as a reliever by nearly five percent, and his 31.8 percent chase rate was six percent lower than his 2015-16 peak. Britton still induced grounders at an elite rate (72.6 percent), but not at the historic levels he’d reached in the three preceding seasons. And after walking just 6.9 percent of the hitters he faced from 2014-16, Britton walked 11.2 percent of his opponents last season en route to a 4.34 BB/9 mark. Britton was a good reliever last season, but he wasn’t elite and didn’t perform at a level commensurate with his $11.4MM salary.

Britton still received a raise to $12MM, though, even after the Orioles knew he’d require surgery to repair his ruptured Achiles, and that salary is all the more problematic now in 2018. Britton is owed about $6.45MM through season’s end, as of today. (It’d be about $3.94MM on the day of the non-waiver trade deadline.) That’s a rather significant sum for a team in the middle of the season — especially with the number of contenders who are either over the luxury tax limit (Nationals, Red Sox) or trying hard to remain slightly south of it (Yankees, Dodgers, Giants).

So far in 2018, Britton has only faced 17 batters and totaled 4 1/3 innings of work, so it’s hard to glean all that much from his early results. That said, it should be of at least mild concern that his average sinker is down from 96.1 mph in 2017 to 93.7 mph in 2018. He’s allowed just one hit in facing those 17 opponents and picked up five strikeouts, but he’s also walked four of them and thrown a first-pitch strike to just eight of them. That wouldn’t be especially concerning in a vacuum, but given the backdrop of last season’s control issues, it’s hardly promising to see Britton struggling with to locate the ball early out of the gates.

Clearly, there’s still time for Britton to rebuild his trade value. Even if his velocity doesn’t trend all the way back up, he’d be plenty appealing if he could scale back the walks and continue inducing grounders at an elite level. The O’s could (and should be willing to) increase his trade value by agreeing to pay down some or all of his significant salary, but that hasn’t been the front office/ownership’s M.O. in recent years. (To the contrary, the O’s have parted with Competitive Balance draft picks in order to shed relatively minimal commitments to relievers Ryan Webb and Brian Matusz.)

Britton’s trade candidacy, perhaps more than any other player who is likely to be moved this summer, is punctuated by “ifs.” If his velocity returns, if his control improves, if last year’s lack of whiffs proves to be a fluke and if the Orioles are willing to absorb some salary, he may very well end up looking like the premium trade chip that many expect him to be based on his name value. Right now, however, Britton looks like a solid but expensive reliever whose on-field results haven’t lined up with that name value in nearly two calendar years.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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MLB Daily Roster Roundup: Crawford, Morrow, Myers, Wacha

By | at June 21, 2018 11:04pm CDT

ROSTER MOVES BY TEAM
(June 20th-June 21st)

NATIONAL LEAGUE

—

AMERICAN LEAGUE

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FUTURE EXPECTED MOVES

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MLB Daily Roster Roundup: Adams, Hill, Kiermaier, Strickland

By | at June 19, 2018 10:58pm CDT

ROSTER MOVES BY TEAM
(June 19th)

NATIONAL LEAGUE

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AMERICAN LEAGUE

  • TEXAS RANGERS | Depth Chart
    • Promoted: SP Austin Bibens-Dirkx
      • Bibens-Dirkx will start on Wednesday.
    • Optioned: SP Yohander Mendez
      • Mendez was scheduled to start on Wednesday, but was optioned to Triple-A after violating team rules. Rougned Odor was scratched from Tuesday’s lineup, although the team would not confirm if it was for the same rules violation.

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FUTURE EXPECTED MOVES

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MLB Daily Roster Roundup: Andrus, Crawford, Herrera, Martinez

By | at June 18, 2018 10:11pm CDT

ROSTER MOVES BY TEAM
(June 18th)

NATIONAL LEAGUE

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AMERICAN LEAGUE

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FUTURE EXPECTED MOVES

*The original version of this post mistakenly stated that Hector Neris had been promoted.

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MLB Weekend Roster Roundup: Belt, Carrasco, Foltynewicz, Simmons, Soler

By | at June 17, 2018 10:56pm CDT

ROSTER MOVES BY TEAM
(June 16th-June 17th)

NATIONAL LEAGUE

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AMERICAN LEAGUE

  • LOS ANGELES ANGELS | Depth Chart
    • Activated from 10-Day DL: SS Andrelton Simmons
      • Simmons played SS and batted 2nd on Saturday and 6th on Sunday.
    • Promoted: SP John Lamb (contract purchased)
      • Lamb made his 1st MLB start since July 2016 on Saturday (5 IP, 2 ER).
    • Optioned: INF Nolan Fontana
    • Designated for assignment: RP Oliver Drake

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FUTURE EXPECTED MOVES

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MLB Daily Roster Roundup: Cozart, Longoria, Mauer, Richards

By | at June 15, 2018 11:26pm CDT

ROSTER MOVES BY TEAM
(June 15th)

NATIONAL LEAGUE

  • CHICAGO CUBS | Depth Chart
    • Injury news: SP Adbert Alzolay (strained lat)
      • Alzolay, one of the team’s top prospects, is expected to miss the remainder of the season. He had an outside chance of debuting in the Majors this season.

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AMERICAN LEAGUE

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FUTURE EXPECTED MOVES

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MLB Daily Roster Roundup: Cabrera, Cahill, Maeda, Ottavino, Soroka

By | at June 14, 2018 11:29pm CDT

ROSTER MOVES BY TEAM
(June 13th-June 14th)

NATIONAL LEAGUE

  • ATLANTA BRAVES | Depth Chart
    • Activated from 10-Day DL: SP Mike Soroka
      • Soroka pitched 6.1 shutout innings on Wednesday.
    • Designated for assignment: RP Luke Jackson
      • Jackson cleared waivers and was outrighted to Triple-A on Tuesday.

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AMERICAN LEAGUE

  • BALTIMORE ORIOLES | Depth Chart
    • Promoted: SP Yefry Ramirez
      • Ramirez started versus the Red Sox on Wednesday in his MLB debut (4.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 6 K)
    • Optioned: RP Donnie Hart
  • CLEVELAND INDIANS | Depth Chart
    • Activated from 10-Day DL: OF Brandon Guyer
      • Guyer played RF and batted 5th on Thursday versus a left-handed starting pitcher.
    • Designated for assignment: OF Melky Cabrera
      • Cabrera was 12-for-58 with 5 2B, 0 HR in 17 games.

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FUTURE EXPECTED MOVES

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Free Agent Stock Watch: Michael Brantley

By | at June 13, 2018 3:01pm CDT

When the 2017 campaign came to a close, it was an open question whether the Indians should and would exercise a $12MM club option over outfielder Michael Brantley. The alternative — which MLBTR poll respondents narrowly preferred — was to send him onto free agency with a $1MM buyout.

As it turned out, of course, Cleveland elected to roll the dice on Brantley, betting that he’d have his first healthy season since 2015 — when he was a high-end offensive performer. Significant shoulder and ankle problems conspired to limit Brantley to just 101 total games over the ensuing two seasons. Though he hit well in 2017, turning in a .299/.357/.444 with nine home runs in 375 plate appearances, that wasn’t near the top-level output he had turned in previously. All said, it was open to question just what Brantley would contribute in 2018

For the budget-conscious contenders, it wasn’t an easy call, particularly with a variety of potential buy-low targets available in free agency and other needs clamoring for attention. While the overall roster performance hasn’t been quite to expectations in 2018, though, the decision to hang onto Brantley has paid off handsomely.

Through 245 plate appearances on the year, Brantley carries a .316/.359/.529 slash with 11 home runs. He has returned to striking out in less than ten percent of his plate appearances. And while he isn’t walking as much as he did in 2015, with a slightly below-average 6.1% rate, Brantley is producing more power (.213 isolated slugging) than he ever has in a full season. Better still, Statcast thinks there’s more in the tank, as it credits him with a .410 xwOBA that significantly exceeds the .374 wOBA mark that has resulted.

Still, there are some questions facing Brantley away from the plate. Typically a plus runner, he has rated as a negative thus far in 2018 under Fangraphs’ BsR measure. More worrisome, perhaps, is the slippage in his defensive metrics. Most of his career has been spent in range of average in left field, but Brantley has been panned by both DRS (-8) and UZR (-5.6) in 2018.

In regard to the baserunning and glovework, a full-season sample or finer analysis could change the picture. Still, though, those aren’t the most promising developments for a player who is already 31 years of age and has fought through major health concerns of late. Brantley has also typically carried fairly significant platoon splits over his career, though he has generally produced palatable numbers against southpaws.

If Brantley can maintain his current offensive trajectory, and perhaps exhibit reasonable form in the other areas of play as well, then he’ll have quite an interesting free-agent case. His premium plate discipline and contact skills ought to play well in the market — former teammate Carlos Santana got $20MM annually last winter despite being limited to first base defensively — though age will certainly come into play.

Frankly, there are no shortage of interest market markers to consider here. On the lower end, the agreement that Denard Span inked with the Giants covered his age-32 through age-34 campaigns. Like Brantley, he was coming off of some injury-marred campaigns with questions about how he’d bounce back. Melky Cabrera was more youthful but not as accomplished as Brantley when he signed his three-year, $42MM pact with the White Sox. The same is true of Jay Bruce, who was born months apart from Brantley but reached the market one year sooner, securing $39MM over three seasons.

There’s certainly a ready argument that Brantley ought to out-perform those contracts, particularly if teams still view him as a plausible corner outfielder for most or all of the contractual term. Players of a similarly advanced age have secured five-year guarantees, with recent examples including Lorenzo Cain ($80MM), Dexter Fowler ($82.5MM), and Ian Desmond ($70MM). In each of those cases, though, the length of the deal was perhaps less concerning since the players involved were considered capable of playing center field (as well as the infield, in Desmond’s case), even if Brantley still carries a better offensive profile.

Barring an unreal run to finish the year, Brantley will likely struggle to command a fifth year, particularly as we’ve generally seen a movement toward shorter contracts in free agency. Even with the injury history, though, might he be a strong candidate for a fourth year? Curtis Granderson got to four years, at a $15MM rate, at a more advanced age. He was coming off of an injury-shortened season, though he was also an established 40-homer bat at a time when that meant more than it does today. Alex Gordon landed $72MM on a four-year term, but didn’t face the kinds of long-term health questions that Brantley does. Nick Swisher was 32 years old when he signed for four years and $56MM after a run as a steadier, but lower-ceiling hitter than Brantley. Of course, those four-year contracts are also somewhat out of date. Josh Reddick recently secured four years and $52MM. But he was entering his age-30 campaign.

Taken together, that’s quite a broad range. Given his return to form thus far, one could reasonably craft an argument that Brantley ought to rate in the Granderson-Gordon range as a high-quality, veteran corner bat. Then again, teams will need to examine and weigh his long-term medical outlook quite closely, as Brantley has dealt with quite a bit more than the sort of acute injuries that take place in the course of playing baseball. In that view, perhaps the three-year arrangements provide a better model, though even in that event Brantley is on track to staking a claim to a significant AAV.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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