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Offseason In Review: Tampa Bay Rays

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This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s 2017-18 Offseason In Review series.  Click here to read the other completed reviews from around the league.

A major roster overhaul didn’t entirely signal a new direction for the franchise, as the Rays stopped just short of a rebuild and are hoping to take an unconventional approach to competing in the AL East.

Major League Signings

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

Rays 25-Man Roster & Minor League Depth Chart; Rays Payroll Overview

Needs Addressed

For the last couple of years, the conventional wisdom surrounding the Rays has been that they wouldn’t pursue a rebuild until Chris Archer and Evan Longoria were traded.  Archer is still here, as no team was willing to meet Tampa Bay’s enormous asking price for the ace, but Longoria’s days as the face of the franchise came to an end when the longtime third baseman was moved to the Giants as the centerpiece of a five-player blockbuster.

The Longoria trade more or less opened the floodgates on the Rays dealing several of their most notable players.  It was known that the team was preparing to trim payroll this winter, and with a large and increasingly expensive arbitration class on the books, many of those names now find themselves in different uniforms.  Gone is Jake Odorizzi, traded to the Twins for a low-level prospect in what was essentially a dump of his $6.3MM salary.  Gone are 30-homer man Steven Souza and former closer Brad Boxberger to the Diamondbacks in separate trades.  Gone is 2017 All-Star Corey Dickerson, sent to the Pirates for a reliever in Daniel Hudson who has since been released.

Combined with a significant list of free agent departures (i.e. Alex Cobb, Tommy Hunter, Logan Morrison) and a few more arb-eligibles that were just let go for no return (Dan Jennings, Chase Whitley, Xavier Cedeno) and it makes for a pretty stark roster exodus for Tampa Bay.  The fire sale would’ve been even more pronounced if the Rays had found takers for Brad Miller or Alex Colome, the latter of whom at least drew some significant trade interest.

Still, there is a glass half-full way to look at the Rays’ moves.  Firstly, the team hadn’t had a winning season since 2013, so it isn’t like the Rays are breaking up a dynasty.  Secondly, the moves are perhaps more palatable to Tampa fans if you look past the names of the players and instead just look at their recent production.

Longoria, for instance, is a franchise icon, but also a 32-year-old coming off his worst offensive season (96 wRC+) and owed $86MM through his age-36 season.  Odorizzi was a replacement-level pitcher last season, posting the highest hard-hit ball and homer rates of his career.  Dickerson’s numbers cratered badly over the last three months of 2017, while injuries limited Boxberger to just 53 2/3 innings total over the last two seasons.  The Souza trade is a bit of a tougher swallow given his breakout performance and affordable remaining control, but as Rays senior VP of baseball operations Chaim Bloom recently explained, the club felt it too good an offer to pass up.  (Indeed, newly-acquired southpaw Anthony Banda may end up playing a significant role in Tampa’s rotation in this very season, as we’ll explore more in depth later, while Nick Solak is an interesting prospect in his own right.)

Aside from Banda, Denard Span and Christian Arroyo look to have the most potential2018 impact of any of the players acquired in these trades.  Span’s inclusion was in the Longoria deal was mostly about offsetting the salaries involved. Since the Rays were unable to flip him in another deal, the veteran will open the season as the team’s first choice left fielder.  Beyond Span being reinvigorated by playing in his hometown, the move from center field to left should help Span regain some defensive value, and his consistently-good numbers against righty pitching make him a productive member of a platoon.

Arroyo showed little over his first 135 plate appearances as a big leaguer, though a pair of hand injuries kept him from ever establishing any sort of a rhythm.  The infielder is still just 22 years old and has been a fixture of top-100 prospect lists over the last few seasons (MLB.com still ranks Arroyo 81st on their current listing), so Arroyo still shows a lot of promise as a potential third or second baseman of the future in Tampa Bay.  He could find himself at the hot corner this year should Matt Duffy run into any more injury issues or simply fail to produce.

With all of these holes opening up on the roster, the Rays made a number of low-cost trades and signings to create a number of platoon possibilities.  Second base could see the Rays use Daniel Robertson against lefties and newly-acquired Joey Wendle against righties, with Arroyo or top prospect Willy Adames also potentially factoring into the keystone picture at some point.  Utilityman Rob Refsnyder can also play second base , though it’s more likely that he’ll be used as a right-handed hitting complement for Span in left field.

C.J. Cron could technically share time at first base with Brad Miller, though the likelier scenario is that Cron gets the bulk of everyday at-bats while Miller is the DH, with other players rotating into the DH spot to spell Miller against left-handers.  Cron was the odd man out of a crowded first base/DH picture with the Angels, paving the way for the Rays to land him at a low prospect cost and add a career 107 wRC+ player to their regular lineup.

The other big everyday addition was Carlos Gomez, signed as Souza’s replacement for right field on a one-year, $4MM contract.  Gomez may have been one of several players harmed by the free agent signing lull this offseason, as a .255/.340/.462 slash line over 426 PA with the Rangers last season seemingly could’ve or should’ve earned him a larger deal (MLBTR projected Gomez for two years and $22MM).  Gomez is an injury risk, though the move to right field should help his defensive numbers and he already showed some revival on the basepaths last year, with 13 steals and a +2.1 mark in Fangraphs’ Baserunning metric.  With the possibility of some DH time and Mallex Smith on hand to spell Gomez against some right-handers, Tampa may have scored a bargain in a valuable regular for just $4MM.  For perspective, Gomez posted 2.3 fWAR in 426 PA while Dickerson managed 2.6 fWAR but in 629 PA.

Several veteran relievers departed the Rays’ bullpen this winter, though Sergio Romo will stick around after signing a $2.5MM deal for 2018.  Romo looked like a new man after joining the Rays in a midseason trade from the Dodgers, rebounding from a rough performance in L.A. and posting a 1.47 ERA, 8.2 K/9 and a 4.00 K/BB rate over 30 2/3 innings in a Tampa uniform.  Romo will slot in as Colome’s setup man and be one of the few traditional relievers in a bullpen that will be loaded with swingmen.

Questions Remaining

With more and more teams choosing to adopt the wholesale rebuild model recently used to great success by the Astros and Cubs, the old idea of “rebuilding on the fly” has come to be seen as a half-measure at best and a fool’s errand at worst.  One can’t fault the team’s braintrust (owner Stuart Sternberg, president Matt Silverman, GM Erik Neander, and Bloom) for wanting to remain competitive rather than bottom out entirely, though without even a .500 record to show from the last four seasons, the Rays are in the dreaded treading-water area of not actively tanking but also not actually contending.

Had the Rays decided earlier that a rebuild was necessary, they would’ve had much more to show from their trades of veteran talent.  It could be argued that they sold high on Souza, though Tampa would’ve landed a much higher return on Odorizzi last winter before his rough 2017 season cratered his value.  It was surely painful to part ways with Longoria even when they did, though trading him a year earlier, when Longoria was coming off an outstanding 2016 season, could’ve netted the Rays the type of prospect package that immediately set the table for a new contention window.

In fairness, however, it surely didn’t help the Rays that they were shopping these trade chips in a market already flooded with talent due to a stalled free agent market.  Moving Dickerson for a decent return, for instance, proved to be impossible since so many other power bats were available at bargain prices.  (Of course, it’s a bit odd that they took the deal they did, as they could have saved quite a bit more money by simply releasing Dickerson. Perhaps the club believes in prospect Tristan Gray.) Still, that just adds to the argument that Tampa Bay was too late rather than too early in dealing some of these players.  Trading higher-priced players is a way of life for a small-market team, though failing to get much back from those trades when they do happen is a major setback.

The Rays didn’t provide much on offense last season apart from hitting home runs, and in theory a heavier usage of platoons and the addition of more athletic baserunners can help add dimensions to the lineup.  Still, the power shortage is hard to ignore — as Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times recently observed, 171 of the 228 home runs hit by Rays players in 2017 were provided by players no longer on the roster.

The likes of Cron, Gomez, or Span aren’t known for providing a lot of pop, so runs could still be hard to come by unless Kevin Kiermaier takes another step forward as a hitter or Brad Miller returns to his 2016 form.  The Rays were known to be looking for a right-handed hitting outfielder to share time with Span in left field or Miller at DH, and despite several prominent bats still available on the market, the team seemed to settle for Refsnyder, who has yet to exhibit any hitting prowess as a big leaguer.

The losses of Cobb and Odorizzi left the Rays short on proven pitchers, and while the team had young arms to help pick up the slack, the Rays are planning to address the rotation in rather curious way.  Inspired by the additional off-days in this year’s MLB schedule and the number of multi-inning arms available in the bullpen and upper minors, Tampa planned to deploy a four-man rotation of Archer, Jake Faria, Blake Snell, and Nathan Eovaldi. The traditional fifth spot in the rotation would be accounted for by bullpen days where several pitchers combine for one, two, or three innings apiece.  Three rookies (Ryan Yarbrough, Yonny Chirinos, Andrew Kittredge) were kept on the roster with intentions of filling large roles in this plan as multi-inning relief options.

It’s a bold plan to say the least — potentially quite an innovative one given the increased use of relief pitching in baseball over the last few years and the analytic advantage shown to exist by not letting batters get multiple looks at a pitcher’s arsenal.  Unfortunately for the Rays, however, the cracks in the idea have already started to show due to a raft of pitching injuries afflicting the team.  Two of Tampa’s top pitching prospects (Brent Honeywell and Jose De Leon) are lost until 2019 due to Tommy John surgery, while Eovaldi will also start the year on the DL and is himself headed for another elbow surgery (albeit one that’s not as momentous as the two TJ procedures he has already undergone).

With Eovaldi gone, the Rays will try to get by with a three-man rotation for as long as possible.  It remains to be seen if the Rays could simply elevate someone like Banda or Matt Andriese into the rotation in Eovaldi’s place, or if the team could eventually settle into a more traditional five-starter alignment as the season progresses.  Regardless, Tampa Bay is putting a lot of faith in a lot of untested arms, and any further injuries will only further thin out the heavy number of pitchers necessary on the Major League and minor league rosters to properly execute such an idea.  It’s an experiment that, frankly, would make more sense for a team that was in a complete rebuild and could afford to lose games while tinkering with the mechanics of how a four-man rotation would work.  Facing the heavy lineups of the AL East is difficult enough for any pitching staff, let alone one in a constant state of managing innings. Nevertheless, it’ll be interesting to see how things unfold.

The Rays’ current payroll of roughly $79.5MM actually sits a bit higher than their $76MM figure at the end of last season, though they gained far more future flexibility by getting so many of the arbitration-eligibles off the books and by unloading Longoria’s contract.  The fact that a payroll approaching even $80MM is a major obstacle for the Rays, however, hasn’t escaped the attention of the players’ union, as the Rays were one of four teams named in an MLBPA grievance about how those clubs were spending money received under the league’s revenue-sharing plan.  While the results of the grievance remain to be seen, it doesn’t seem that the Rays’ financial situation is likely to change until the team finally gets a new ballpark.

Overview

Neander insists that tanking isn’t in the Rays’ vocabulary, and that the team’s moves will help build a bridge to the arrival of Adames, Honeywell, Arroyo, Jake Bauers, Brendan McKay, and others as the young core of a future contender.  With a push for a new ballpark underway, it certainly makes added sense not to pare things back too severely. Between the veteran additions, full seasons for Kiermaier and Wilson Ramos, and the potential upside of the pitching plan, there is some reason for optimism, though quite a bit would have to go right for a run at playoff contention.

What’s your take on the Rays’ winter?  (Link for app users)

How Would You Grade The Rays' Offseason?
D 34.32% (931 votes)
C 25.88% (702 votes)
F 24.81% (673 votes)
B 11.76% (319 votes)
A 3.24% (88 votes)
Total Votes: 2,713

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Offseason In Review: Pittsburgh Pirates

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This piece is part of MLBTR’s 2017-18 Offseason In Review series.  Click here to read the other completed reviews from around the league.

The Pirates moved two key veterans and dropped their payroll this winter, but did not embark upon a full rebuilding course.

Major League Signings

  • None
Trades and Claims
Option Decisions
  • Exercised $14.5MM club option over OF Andrew McCutchen
Extensions
Notable Minor-League Signings
Notable Losses

Pirates Depth Chart; Pirates Payroll Information

Needs Addressed

Need is certainly a term that’s subject to being defined, even in the baseball context. For the Pirates, it seems, this offseason was focused on tweaking the overall roster mix to infuse some youth and draw down payroll. The Pirates’ sparse payroll has long been a source of consternation for the team’s fans. But complaints against owner Bob Nutting reached a new high this winter after a pair of trades sent away two core players.

Spending on MLB players had ramped up steadily from 2011 to 2015 — the season in which the Bucs peaked at 98 wins but also fell for the second consecutive season in the Wild Card play-in game. In the ensuing campaign, the Pittsburgh organization moved up to just under $100MM to open the season and expanded its spending to just shy of $110MM by the end of the year. But many felt that the team missed a chance to make further investments around a strong core.

Then, last season, the Pirates saw a reduction in their Opening Day payroll and did not expand past the $110MM line by the end of a disappointing campaign. As the 2018 season draws near, it’s clear that the Pirates will be taking a big step back in spending, with around $85MM on the books.

Getting there meant structuring two key swaps. First, the Bucs agreed to send staff ace Gerrit Cole — the former first overall draft pick — to the Astros in exchange for a four-player package. Favoring a spread of useful MLB-ready talent over a big-name headliner, the Pirates brought in three players who’ll likely step right onto the active roster.

Colin Moran will help account for the fact that Jung Ho Kang likely won’t ever play for the Pirates again. The former sixth overall draft pick will try to make good on his own promise after a strong 2017 campaign at Triple-A. Joe Musgrove will give the team a useful and affordable rotation piece or swingman who helps fill in for the loss of Cole. And the high-powered Michael Feliz will be inserted right into a setup role, where he’ll try to harness his big-time stuff — as is reflected in his 96.6 mph average fastball and 14.2% swinging-strike rate in 2017. Feliz could function in the high-leverage role that Juan Nicasio held for much of 2017, before a controversial September move that allowed Nicasio to land with the division-rival Cardinals.

The Cole swap, then, helped fill quite a few openings that had been facing the team entering the winter. Moran will join Jordy Mercer on the left side of the infield, after the Pirates decided to hang onto their long-time shortstop. I had suggested in assessing the team’s outlook last fall that Mercer could be jettisoned, but the Bucs decided he was worth a $6.75MM arbitration tab.

Moving Cole made it all but certain that long-time franchise face Andrew McCutchen would also be dealt. The eventual move brought in one MLB-ready asset in righty Kyle Crick, along with prospect Bryan Reynolds, but it was mostly about trimming salary. The Giants took on all but $2.5MM of the cash owed to McCutchen, who will be eligible for free agency following the season.

All in all, the trade was something of an anti-climactic way for Cutch’s storied tenure in Pittsburgh to come to a close. He is, at least in part, still within his prime years, so this wasn’t just a fond goodbye to a broken-down veteran. At the same time, recent struggles (and a glut of outfielders in free agency) left McCutchen without much of a market, so there wasn’t a major haul of talent coming back in return.

Though Crick will factor into the depth in 2018, he won’t make the Opening Day roster. One new addition will, though: lefty Josh Smoker. The former first-round pick, who has been resurgent as a reliever, is the only one of several low-cost pick-ups who stuck on the 40-man roster all winter and spring long. (Rule 5er Nick Burdi is also still around, though his fate won’t begin to be decided until he’s back from Tommy John surgery.)

Had the offseason ended there, we might’ve seen riots at the gates of PNC Park. But the Bucs front office went on to strike a deal for outfielder Corey Dickerson — who had been designated for assignment by the Rays — that was at least a win in terms of public relations. Dickerson, after all, was an All-Star in 2017 and only required the addition of $1.45MM in salary since the Bucs shed Daniel Hudson (whom the Rays later released) in the deal. While it had seemed the team would utilize a platoon involving the lefty hitting Daniel Nava to replace McCutchen, they’ll instead plan to utilize Dickerson as the primary left fielder. He’ll need to bounce back from a dreadful second half in 2017, but there’s little denying that he gives the Pirates’ lineup a significant boost at a minimal cost.

Questions Remaining

In the aggregate, the offseason decisions left the Pirates with a roster mix that includes quite a few young players as well as some veteran holdovers. The Bucs will use the coming season to see whether they can make out a new slate of core performers while trying to contend in a tough NL Central. If the team can’t keep pace, some mid-season trades and promotions could well result.

In the rotation, Ivan Nova will serve as the veteran leader of an otherwise youthful group. He could well end up as trade fodder if there’s a summer sell-off. Musgrove will join a unit that’s expected to feature Jameson Taillon, Trevor Williams, and Chad Kuhl to open the season. The top 40-man depth options are Nick Kingham and Clay Holmes, though it certainly seems possible that the Pirates will look into adding some veteran pieces as players come available.

If the young guns perform as hoped, this could be a solid, cost-efficient unit. But there’s also quite a bit of uncertainty and the group isn’t exactly teeming with upside. If there’s a front-of-the-rotation breakout candidate on hand, it may be long-time top prospect Tyler Glasnow, but his near- and long-term outlooks remain unclear. Glasnow dominated last year at Triple-A but scuffled in the bigs. He got plenty of swings and misses in camp but will begin the year in the bullpen after allowing 13 earned runs in his 16 innings of Grapefruit League action.

Otherwise, the relief unit will again be led by Felipe Rivero, who inked a long-term deal with the club over the winter (as discussed further below). The aforementioned Feliz will join veteran George Kontos in the late-inning unit. The remainder of the pen is loaded with affordable, controllable but largely unestablished pitchers, including Smoker, Edgar Santana, Dovydas Neverauskas, and Steven Brault. Depth comes in the form of Crick, minor-league signees Kevin Siegrist and Bo Schultz, and a group of others that aren’t on the 40-man roster. Not unlike the rotation, the Pirates are staking wagers on quite a few inexperienced arms in their relief corps.

In terms of position players, the Bucs will hope that their outfield unit is able to morph back into a strength. Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco are both talented players signed to affordable long-term deals. Whether or not they can turn in full and productive seasons will go a long way toward deciding the team’s immediate fate. Dickerson could be a nice addition to this unit, though the 28-year-old will need to bounce back from a .232/.273/.397 slash and 28.4 percent strikeout rate from July 1 through season’s end. With one more year of arbitration eligibility remaining, Dickerson could potentially end up as a trade candidate at some point in the relatively near future.

Potential trade candidates also populate the infield. Backstop Francisco Cervelli is earning $10.5MM this season and $11.5MM for 2019. If he can stay healthy, he could still be a quality asset. The versatile Josh Harrison, who’s slated to be the regular second baseman, came up in talks all winter long after a strong 2017 season. Though he’s plenty useful to Pittsburgh and remains controlled for two more seasons beyond 2018, he also isn’t all that cheap with option values of $10.5MM and $11MM. Then, there’s Mercer, who’ll again command near-everyday time at short but is entering a walk year.

It’ll surely be interesting to see how the middle-infield situation plays out over the coming season. Well-regarded prospects Kevin Newman, Cole Tucker, and Kevin Kramer are pressing up from within; it’s not inconceivable that any of the bunch could warrant a first MLB promotion during the coming season.

The first base job will be left to Josh Bell after his strong 2017 campaign, but third base offers more possibility for intrigue. Colin Moran is going to get a shot to show his swing changes can sustain a power increase in the majors, with veteran David Freese there to face tough lefties. Recent first-round pick Ke’Bryan Hayes is still a ways off, and Freese isn’t considered a regular option at this stage of his carer, so the odds are that Moran will receive a long look.

In addition to the promising youngsters noted above, there are loads of depth pieces on hand in the event that trades, injuries, or stumbles intervene to create a need. Adam Frazier and Sean Rodriguez will be the Bucs’ lefty and righty Swiss Army knives, serving as substitute options in both the infield and outfield. Max Moroff and Chris Bostick are alternative 40-man utility choices, while Jose Osuna is likely the first man up in the outfield after a nice spring. Other outfield possibilities on the 40-man are Jordan Luplow and Austin Meadows, the long-time top prospect who is aiming for a bounceback campaign.

Deal of Note

Felipe Rivero | Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

It became something of a gag that the Pirates inked Rivero not long after dealing away Cole and Cutch — as if that relatively limited financial commitment could make up for parting with the team’s most talented pitcher and long-time superstar. But the Rivero pact was a legitimately notable extension that should move the needle in the long run.

The 26-year-old lefty, who was acquired from the Nationals for half a year of Mark Melancon, harnessed his premium stuff to become one of the game’s best relievers in 2017. He pitched to a 1.67 ERA in 75 1/3 innings with 10.5 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 while also accumulating 21 saves after taking over the closer’s role partway through the season.

So long as he continues to handle the ninth, Rivero is likely keep aggregating the kinds of numbers that would lead to hefty arbitration earnings. The four seasons of arb control, beginning in 2018, quite likely would have cost a good bit more than the $22MM that Rivero will actually earn. Plus, the two years of $10MM options could be of quite some value, given the cost of premium relievers on the open market.

This sort of agreement just won’t be as momentous as earlier Bucs extensions — McCutchen, Marte, Polanco — have been (or could be). But it’s a move that improves the value of an already high-quality, existing asset. If the organization’s payroll is going to remain as tightly controlled as it has been, then this type of deal could one day free the Pirates to make one more addition to a hopeful contending roster.

Overview

It’s not difficult to imagine the MLB roster looking quite a bit different by year end than it does now. There are plenty of mid-season trade possibilities, though this roster shouldn’t be counted out entirely from contention. Regardless, the number of inexperienced pitchers in the majors and upper-level position prospects who’ll open in the minors could be a recipe for turnover. It’s tough to get excited over the moves, in the aggregate, but the reasoning behind the approach becomes a bit more apparent when one considers how many potentially worthwhile, cost-efficient 40-man pieces will be tested for the future. Of course, things would probably look a lot more compelling with a few more talented players on the roster and a few more dollars on the payroll.

What are your thoughts on Pittsburgh’s offseason? (Link for app users)

How Would You Grade The Pirates' Offseason?
C 32.59% (735 votes)
D 30.86% (696 votes)
F 18.98% (428 votes)
B 14.68% (331 votes)
A 2.88% (65 votes)
Total Votes: 2,255

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason In Review: Toronto Blue Jays

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This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s 2017-18 Offseason In Review series.  Click here to read the other completed reviews from around the league.

The Blue Jays made depth a major priority this winter, making a variety of low-cost/solid-upside acquisitions to fill roster holes and (theoretically) help the club return to postseason contention.

Major League Signings

  • Jaime Garcia, SP: One year, $10MM (includes $2MM buyout of $10MM club option for 2019)
  • Curtis Granderson, OF: One year, $5MM
  • Seung-hwan Oh, RP: One year, $2MM (includes $250K buyout of $2MM option for 2019; option vests if Oh makes 70 appearances)
  • Total spend: $17MM

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

Blue Jays 25-Man Roster & Minor League Depth Chart; Blue Jays Payroll Overview

Needs Addressed

While injuries were a big problem for the 2017 Jays, the larger issue may have been that the club received virtually no help from the injury replacements.  Of the 60 players who saw action for the Jays in 2017, only 11 of them generated more than 1.0 rWAR.  Combine that overall lack of production with sub-replacement level years from regulars like Jose Bautista and Kendrys Morales, and it was no surprise that the Blue Jays sputtered to a mediocre 76-86 record.  With this in mind, the Jays engaged in a near-total overhaul of the bench while also saying farewell to franchise icon Bautista and several other players (Ryan Goins, Darwin Barney, Ezequiel Carrera) who saw a lot of playing time last season.

Of course, Goins and Barney weren’t supposed to get nearly the 821 combined plate appearances they received last year, but the two light-hitting infielders were pressed into regular duty thanks to extended injury absences from Troy Tulowitzki and Devon Travis.  With those two players still big question marks health-wise this season (and Tulowitzki already sidelined to begin the season), Toronto loaded up on infield help, acquiring Yangervis Solarte, Aledmys Diaz, and Gift Ngoepe in separate trades with the Padres, Cardinals, and Pirates, respectively.  Danny Espinosa was also signed to a minor league deal for further depth at shortstop and second base.

Diaz looks to be the starting shortstop with Tulowitzki out, and there’s certainly upside to be found in a player who was an All-Star as recently as 2016.  After his rookie breakout season, however, Diaz slumped to just a .259/.290/.392 slash line last year, both losing his starting shortstop job to Paul DeJong and also getting a demotion to Triple-A.  At worst, Diaz looks to be a solid bench piece for Toronto, and he could potentially be a steal if his 2017 proves to be just a sophomore slump.

Solarte’s trade value took a bit of a hit after a below-average (93 wRC+) offensive year with the Padres last season that saw him hit .255/.314/.416 with 18 homers over 512 PA.  Still, the Jays didn’t have to give up much in the way of prospect capital in the trade, and Solarte is only owed $4MM this season before a pair of pricier club options ($5.5MM in 2019, $8MM in 2020) must be addressed.  He can play all over the infield and could even handle left field in a pinch, plus the switch-hitting Solarte has solid numbers against right-handed pitching, which will help balance out a very right-handed Toronto lineup.

With Bautista gone and Steve Pearce best suited for part-time duty, the Jays had holes in both corner outfield spots that they addressed with both short-term and longer-term options.  Veteran Curtis Granderson signed a one-year, $5MM deal, and his left-handed bat is a natural complement to play alongside the southpaw-mashing Pearce in left field.  Granderson has posted above-average offensive numbers against all pitching over the last three seasons, and with Pearce spelling him against southpaws, Granderson could become even more of a force in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre.  Though his on-base numbers have dropped off over the last couple of years, Granderson still projects to be Toronto’s leadoff hitter when facing a righty starter.

Another deal with the Cardinals saw the Jays acquire Randal Grichuk to step into the everyday right field role, though Grichuk is capable of playing all three outfield positions in a pinch.  Like Diaz, Grichuk was also seemingly on his way to becoming a regular in St. Louis after posting a nice breakout season (.276/.329/.548 with 17 homers over 350 PA in 2015) but has since trailed off, still displaying some solid power but subpar batting averages and on-base numbers.  Grichuk arguably isn’t the best fit for a team that already had lots of trouble with strikeouts and lack of contact in 2017, though at age 26 and under control for three more years, he could still blossom after a change of scenery.

Joe Biagini’s struggles last season left a vacancy in the fifth starter spot, as the Jays will instead use Biagini as Triple-A depth after signing veteran Jaime Garcia to eat innings and generate ground balls.  Toronto’s solid infield defense should mesh well with Garcia’s grounder-heavy style, and a good season could see him remain for 2019 via a $10MM club option.

The Blue Jays also turned to veteran arms to bolster their bullpen, inking several notable names to minor league contracts.  Tyler Clippard and John Axford are favored to make the Opening Day roster over the likes of Jake Petricka, Al Alburquerque, and Craig Breslow, and if enough of these pitchers opt to remain in the organization, it will give Toronto quite a bit of extra bullpen depth.  Beyond the minors deals, the Jays also brought in yet another ex-Cardinal in Seung-hwan Oh on a Major League contract to add to the setup mix behind closer Roberto Osuna.

Questions Remaining

While Grichuk, Solarte, and Diaz all underachieved in 2017, they don’t need to produce much in 2018 to improve on what Bautista, Goins, and Barney did (or didn’t do, to be more accurate) last season.  Between the new trio and Granderson, the Jays acquired much more positional and matchup flexibility than they had on last year’s roster, and they were able to bring in these reinforcements for a relatively small cost in cash and prospects.

The biggest question still facing the Blue Jays, however, is whether more than just mid-tier acquisitions were needed to keep the team afloat in a very competitive AL East.  In an offseason that saw the Yankees land Giancarlo Stanton and the Red Sox sign J.D. Martinez, Toronto’s more modest adds don’t quite seem enough to close the gap with the two division powerhouses.  If the Jays’ best path to the postseason is through the second AL wild card spot, it isn’t clear if they’ll have enough to battle the Twins or Angels, to name two clubs who made bigger splashes on the transaction front.

This isn’t to say that the Blue Jays didn’t at least explore some higher-profile moves, as the team was linked to the likes of Martinez, Christian Yelich, Lorenzo Cain, Andrew McCutchen, and Alex Cobb on the rumor mill.  Instead, in settling for a group of players that aren’t guaranteed beyond the 2018 season, the Mark Shapiro/Ross Atkins front office gave itself some flexibility in deciding if this current talent core is really a contender, which is an open question in the wake of the mediocre 2017 campaign.  Even if the newcomers all perform as expected, it won’t lead to much progress in the standings if the rest of the team can’t stay healthy or rebound from what was almost a team-wide (save for Josh Donaldson, Marcus Stroman and Justin Smoak) set of disappointing seasons.

Reports from Spring Training about Devon Travis’s knee issues and Aaron Sanchez’s recovery from blister and finger problems are promising, though the Jays won’t really feel comfortable about either player until they get some solid playing time under their belts.  As noted earlier, Tulowitzki is already facing another DL stint and the veteran shortstop isn’t certain when he’ll be back on the field.  The Jays didn’t make any upgrades at backup catcher, so they’ll be hoping that Russell Martin far surpasses his 91-game total from 2017, lest Luke Maile or rookie prospect Danny Jansen be pressed into regular work.

Garcia gives the Jays five solid starting pitchers in a rotation that could be quite good if Sanchez, J.A. Happ and Marco Estrada all bounce back to their past form.  Beyond those five, however, Biagini leads a very inexperienced crop of starters at Triple-A, and there aren’t any obvious swingman-types on the 40-man roster aside from Biagini himself to easily step in for spot duty.

Problems in the rotation will lead to more work for the bullpen, coming off a season that saw the Blue Jays post the third-most relief innings of any team in baseball.  While the veteran signings represent fresh arms, none of them are coming off particularly good seasons (hence their availability on minors contracts), so it remains to be seen if they’ll be able to contribute properly.  Oh, for instance, saw his contact and homer rates increase from 2016, and he represents something of a wild card as he enters his age-35 season and his third year in North American baseball.

Finally, Donaldson’s future has been a notable subplot of the Jays’ offseason, though the team was adamant all along that it wasn’t looking to trade its star third baseman.  (The Cardinals were one team known to be interested, and it’s quite possible the Grichuk and Diaz trades might have branched out of any inquiries St. Louis made about Donaldson.)  As of February, extension talks between Donaldson and the Jays didn’t seem to be progressing, and the former MVP was already putting negotiations aside to focus on the season.

Donaldson has been hampered by some nagging injuries throughout the spring, including some calf soreness that stands out as particularly troubling given that a calf strain cost him a decent chunk of last season.  The Jays absolutely need Donaldson at full strength, firstly to help them contend and (in a worst-case scenario) so Donaldson could become a midseason trade chip in the event of another sub-.500 season.

Overview

The Blue Jays’ long-term plan is to ride an oncoming wave of prospects into regular contention in the AL East, with top minor leaguers Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Anthony Alford, Ryan Borucki, and Jansen all expected to reach the majors by 2019 at the latest.  The question is whether these youngsters will be reinforcing a team that’s already vying for the postseason, or one that has taken a step back to rebuild for 2020 or 2021.

Based on the Jays’ maneuvers this offseason, they’re hedging their bets about either scenario.  If last season really was just an injury-riddled fluke, Toronto could take a lot of teams by surprise in 2018.  Raising a talent floor is a much more cost-effective strategy than raising a talent ceiling, particularly for a Jays club that has so much money already tied up in players (i.e. Tulowitzki, Morales) who might not be very productive.  Then again, the Jays could improve by 10 wins and that still might not be enough in the wild card race, leaving the team wondering if they should’ve made a bolder acquisition or two for what could be the final seasons in Toronto for pending free agents like Donaldson, Estrada, Happ, Granderson, and Pearce.

What’s your take on the Blue Jays’ winter?  (Link for app users)

How Would You Grade The Blue Jays' Offseason?
B 37.55% (1,432 votes)
C 37.52% (1,431 votes)
D 13.50% (515 votes)
F 6.14% (234 votes)
A 5.30% (202 votes)
Total Votes: 3,814

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Tracking Non-Roster Invitees With Big League Experience

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More than 600 non-roster players were invited to MLB Spring Training with a chance to win an Opening Day roster spot. Nearly half of them have MLB experience and are hoping for a return to the Majors, following the path of close to 40 former big leaguers who made their team’s respective Opening Day roster last April after signing a Minor League deal during the offseason.

Here’s this year’s list of non-roster invitees with MLB experience, including reported salary in the Majors and opt-out dates. This post will be updated as necessary through the end of Spring Training.

Last updated: 3/27/18
*Players currently projected by Roster Resource to make an Opening Day Roster are in bold/italics.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

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AMERICAN LEAGUE

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Offseason In Review: Cleveland Indians

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This piece is part of MLBTR’s 2017-18 Offseason In Review series.  Click here to read the other completed reviews from around the league.

A 102-win Indians ballclub let all seven of its free agents depart this winter, and gave out just one guaranteed contract. The Tribe will bank on a sustained breakout from Yonder Alonso and some reinforcements from the farm to supplement a core that’s won the division two years in a row, in hopes that they can end MLB’s longest championship drought.

Major League Signings

Trades and Claims

Option Decisions

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

Indians Depth Chart; Indians Payroll Information

Needs Addressed

One of the Indians’ most important decisions came right at the end of the 2017 season, as they elected to pick up their $11MM option over outfielder Michael Brantley. That call long seemed an easy one in the affirmative, but ongoing shoulder and ankle problems have added quite a lot of uncertainty to the 30-year-old’s outlook. It’s something of a risk for the Cleveland organization, but it seems Brantley is progressing well and he could still represent a significant value if he can make it back to full health and come anywhere near his peak level of production.

Otherwise, the Cleveland brass entered the offseason with a simple to-do list: re-sign or replace their outgoing free agents in order to keep last year’s team as intact as possible. After a 102-win season in which the club won an AL record 22 consecutive games, there wasn’t any need for a significant overhaul. Most of the core was under control headed into 2018, so the organization’s tapestry of talent would likely require only minor patches to be successful in the coming season.

It soon became evident that rival clubs valued the Tribe’s outgoing free agents far more than the team itself. Santana and Shaw both exceeded MLBTR’s expectations in terms of earning power, and departed for Philadelphia and Colorado, respectively. As each of their other five free agents found new homes, the Indians were forced to opt for the “replace” route.

The club signed Alonso to fill Santana’s shoes, added Davis and Upton Jr. to battle for Jackson’s role, and snatched up Belisle and Torres out of the late-winter reliever bargain bin. Mission accomplished, right? Well, sort of. While each of those moves serves the purpose of patching a hole left by a free-agent departure, each serves as the equivalent of purchasing a $200 laptop because you can’t afford a Macbook. They’ll do the same job, but they don’t come with the same kind of reliability. That leaves some questions as to whether the club will be able to enjoy the same success; if one of their replacement options collapses, they’ll suddenly have a problematic hole on the roster.

Alonso, for instance, is coming off a rare age-30 breakout season in which he became something of a poster boy for the fly ball revolution. Between the A’s and Mariners, he posted a strong .266/.365/.501 batting line with a career-high 28 home runs. That homer total far exceeded anything he’d ever done in the majors or minors, so there’s some understandable skepticism about whether or not he’ll be able to repeat such numbers as he enters an age in which baseball players typically begin to decline.

Still, perhaps that’s not giving enough credit to Alonso. He did, after all, make some clear changes to his swing that we can point to as evidence for his breakout. And he also altered his approach at the plate; those changes were mentioned far less by both the media and respected baseball statistic outlets, but contributed just as much to his breakout campaign. As Alonso himself put it in an interview with MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian, “For me, it’s about driving the baseball, using my legs, doing things that I do. My pitch sequence. My pitch location. What pitches I can handle. What pitches I can’t. And then after that, just going and compete.” Focusing on the pitches he could handle worked out well for his on-base ability, as his walk rate spiked to a 13.1% clip that far exceeded his previous career high of 10.4%. The resulting .365 on-base percentage falls exactly in line with Santana’s career average, meaning that he’d actually prove a suitable replacement for the long-time Tribe slugger as long as he can continue a seemingly repeatable improvement in patience and pitch selection.

Additionally, it’s worth noting that even if Alonso doesn’t end up producing to his 2017 levels, the Indians have some reasonable backup solutions. It’s feasible that Edwin Encarnacion could shift out of the DH spot (though he certainly wouldn’t provide much value defensively), allowing someone like on-base machine Yandy Diaz to get at-bats as the team’s designated hitter. The club also has Bobby Bradley waiting in the wings, who ranks among the top first base prospects in baseball. Point being, if Alonso regresses significantly, the Indians can probably reshape their roster to accommodate without taking a sizeable hit to their run-scoring ability.

As far as the outfield goes, it’s difficult to imagine Davis, who was recently added to the 25-man roster, producing to the level that Jackson did last season. (Of course, Jackson himself was acquired on a minor-league deal.) The 37-year-old Davis brings with him the nostalgia of a memorable game-tying homer in Game 7 of the 2016 World Series. But after he hit just .235/.293/.348 last season between the A’s and Red Sox, he probably won’t provide any real offensive value with his bat. His biggest asset to the team will be his stolen base ability, which continues to inexplicably persevere even as the outfielder approaches the age of 40.

Speaking of 37-year-old players, Belisle was also recently informed that he’s made the team. Though he’s not necessarily an exciting addition, he ’s a reliable presence for quality innings. Across the past three campaigns, the right-hander has posted a 2.96 ERA and has typically managed to out-pitch his peripheral statistics. Again, he’s not Shaw or Smith, but he’s certainly not a pushover. Considering the bullpen will still be led by Cody Allen and Andrew Miller, there’s not much to worry about, anyway. With an embarrassment of riches in the starting pitcher department, the Tribe will likely consider flamethrower Danny Salazar for a bullpen role if he continues to struggle in the rotation.

Questions Remaining

The club’s outfield crew isn’t likely to intimidate other contenders. While Lonnie Chisenhall and Brantley are terrific when they’re able to take the field, neither can seem to do so on a consistent basis. Bradley Zimmer and Tyler Naquin have both shown great upside, but they’ve also had their weaknesses exposed; neither is a sure bet to find sustained success throughout the 2018 season. The even bigger overarching issue is that each of those four players bats from the left side of the plate. The Tribe’s only righty-hitting outfielders are Davis (see above) and Brandon Guyer, who was recently named to the Opening Day roster but struggled mightily last year and comes with injury concerns. While the team has some right-handed bats and switch-hitters elsewhere in the lineup, one has to imagine that such a severely lefty-heavy outfield puts them at a disadvantage against opposing southpaws.

The organization’s dearth of vertical depth in the bullpen department is no small matter, either. The club has seven solid relievers on the active roster, but the relief corps at Triple-A is a gaggle of waiver claims and offseason minor league signees. Though they’ve lucked out in the past with waiver claims like Tyler Olson, it’s statistically unlikely that they’ll continue to win the lottery with players that other teams let go. Of course, it’s fair to note too that the rotation depth could filter down to the pen if and when more of the team’s starters are at full health.

The health and production of second baseman Jason Kipnis is certainly up in the air after an injury-plagued age-30 season that ended up being one of the worst offensive showings of his career. His poor play resulted in a swirl of offseason trade rumors and uncertainty about his future in Cleveland, but he’s found his swing in training camp as evidenced by his six homers and .375 batting average in Cactus League play. It’s tough to know what to expect from Kipnis, but he’s an interesting bounce back candidate to watch.

The Tribe’s catching tandem of Yan Gomes and Roberto Perez isn’t what you’d call an offensive juggernaut, but they both provide plenty of defensive value and are likely to combine for another above-average performance in relation to the rest of the league. Beyond them, super-prospect Francisco Mejia is waiting in the wings, itching to prove himself in the event of an injury to one the aforementioned duo. Mejia’s more of a bat-first backstop, and his hit tool is one of the best in the minors. Indeed, the organization is even considering utilizing him in the outfield as a means of moving up his timeline to contribute in the majors (potentially offering another means of giving a boost to the uncertain outfield mix). While none of these three players is without his flaws, it’s hard to imagine catcher being a significant area of weakness for the Indians.

It’s more likely than not that we’ll see some kind of offensive decline from Encarnacion as the slugger enters his age-35 season. What that will look like isn’t easy to predict. Some sluggers like Paul Konerko only experienced a modest power drop-off at 35, while others such as Mark Teixeira seemed to have the rug pulled out from under them entirely at that age. As one of the few intimidating right-handed hitters in the Tribe’s lineup, they’ll be counting on him to offer at least something close to his usual power output.

Outside of that, the Indians appear well-poised to make another run at a championship. A rotation that produced the best fWAR of all time is back in its entirety, with reasonable depth options at Triple-A and a couple of impressive prospects in Triston McKenzie and Shane Bieber not far off. The left side of their infield sports two MVP candidates in Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to once again see those two combine to top 60 homers while providing stellar defense. All in all, questions about this team’s composition are little else but nit-picking.

Overview

The front office didn’t do much this offseason, and as such this iteration of the Indians doesn’t look quite as strong as the one that finished the season with 102 wins last year. But if they did get weaker, it certainly isn’t by much. The most important pieces remain on hand, and they have some intriguing depth in the form of high-upside prospects. That likely means a third consecutive AL Central championship and a return to the postseason.

How would you grade the Indians’ offseason work? (Poll link for app users)

How Would You Grade The Indians' Offseason?
C 45.86% (1,485 votes)
B 27.42% (888 votes)
D 16.34% (529 votes)
F 5.22% (169 votes)
A 5.16% (167 votes)
Total Votes: 3,238

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Offseason In Review: Los Angeles Dodgers

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This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s 2017-18 Offseason In Review series.  Click here to read the other completed reviews from around the league.

While the Dodgers will again look to contend for another pennant, their primary offseason moves focused on setting the team up for the future.

Major League Signings

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

Dodgers 25-Man Roster & Minor League Depth Chart; Dodgers Payroll Overview

Needs Addressed

Even while still boasting the league’s largest payroll over the last five seasons, Dodgers executives often spoke of their desire to manage spending in a more efficient manner.  This winter, the opportunity finally struck for the club to achieve that goal, via a fascinating five-player trade with the Braves that allowed the Dodgers to duck under the $197MM luxury tax threshold.

A reminder: each team’s payroll in terms of pure dollars is different from their payroll as calculated for the purposes of the competitive balance tax.  The latter is generated by the average annual value of contracts, and thus while Matt Kemp by himself was owed roughly as much the Brandon McCarthy/Adrian Gonzalez/Scott Kazmir/Charlie Culberson quartet, the Dodgers’ tax number was lowered because Kemp’s money is spread out over both 2018 and 2019, whereas the other four players were under contract only through 2018.

The upshot is that, after paying almost $150MM over the last five seasons in tax penalties, the Dodgers have reset their tax counter and will only be charged at the first-time offender rate should they surpass the threshold next offseason.  It is safe to assume that L.A. is indeed preparing itself to soar over the tax line once more, as the team has now positioned itself to be players in the star-studded 2018-19 free agent market.  Beyond just dreams of, say, Bryce Harper wearing Dodger blue, the club also has some in-house players hitting the market, chief among them Clayton Kershaw (via an opt-out clause in the ace’s current contract).  All signs are currently pointing to Kershaw continuing his relationship with the team, even if a formal extension might not be worked out until after the season is over.

The Braves trade has much more import in terms of finances than did in on-field impact for the Dodgers.  Gonzalez and Kazmir were complete non-factors due to given their recent injury problems, McCarthy was a useful arm last season but was himself limited by injury to just 155 2/3 IP over three years in Los Angeles, and Culberson was expendable given the Dodgers’ other infield depth.

As for Kemp, the Dodgers spent much of the offseason unsuccessfully trying to find a trade partner for the veteran outfielder, and thus Kemp now looks to be part of the team’s left field mix on Opening Day.  Kemp, for his part, lost almost 40 pounds over the offseason and hit well in Spring Training.  While L.A. would surely still prefer to leave left field to just Joc Pederson, Enrique Hernandez, and Trayce Thompson, Kemp may still have something left in the tank — he was still a league-average bat last year, despite an unusual reverse-splits performance that saw him struggle against left-handed pitching.  With some judicious platooning and late-inning defensive removals, Kemp could still be a productive player in 2018.

The Dodgers’ other big trade of the offseason saw them respond to the losses of Tony Watson and Grant Dayton by acquiring a new left-handed reliever in Scott Alexander, via a three-team swap with the White Sox and Royals.  Alexander posted a 2.48 ERA and a sky-high 73.8% grounder rate over 69 innings for Kansas City last season, and with five years of control remaining, Alexander projects as a long-term piece within the Dodgers’ bullpen.  The team did have to give up a quality reliever in Luis Avilan in the trade, though the Dodgers are hopeful that other right-handed options (waiver claim J.T. Chargois or rookie Wilmer Font) can help pick up the slack.

In a move geared as much towards clubhouse chemistry as on-field performance, Los Angeles re-signed Chase Utley to a two-year, $2MM contract.  Utley will resume his role as a left-handed bench bat, part-time second baseman and behind-the-scenes leader as he looks to cap off his career with one more World Series ring.

Questions Remaining

In a way, the Dodgers’ winter was a microcosm for all of Major League Baseball during the quiet 2017-18 offseason — rather than spend big on splashy trades or free agent signings, the Dodgers were all about belt-tightening.  An estimated $30MM per season in competitive balance tax overages is no small matter even for a big-market team like the Dodgers, and one can’t fault the club for seeking out a creative route to finally solve its tax problems.  As noted earlier, it wasn’t as if Los Angeles was counting on Gonzalez or Kazmir to be prime contributors in 2018, and McCarthy carries as many question marks as Kemp going into the season, so the baseball impact of the move was pretty negligible.

Of course, there was a version of this deal that would’ve been much more impactful for the Dodgers, as they reportedly floated an offer to the Marlins that involved sending Gonzalez, Kazmir, and McCarthy to Miami to help offset costs in a Giancarlo Stanton trade.  The Dodgers had some wariness about acquiring such a pricey player who would have to be deployed as an outfielder into his late 30’s, though certainly the Dodgers felt obligated to at least check on the slugger, particularly since Stanton (who was born in Los Angeles) listed the Dodgers as one of four teams he’d approve a deal to join, via waiving his no-trade protection.  Instead, the Marlins balked at the Dodgers’ offer and instead dealt Stanton to the Yankees.

After being a “finalist” of sorts for Stanton and missing out, the Dodgers also fell short on their pursuit of Shohei Ohtani, despite being one of the seven teams selected for the final stage of in-person presentations to the Japanese star.  This led to some hard feelings on Kershaw’s part, as the southpaw criticized Ohtani’s representation for allegedly misrepresenting the Dodgers’ chances at a deal (Kershaw felt no NL teams had a realistic shot since Ohtani was intent on regular at-bats, and thus needed a DH position).  The Dodgers’ West Coast location and history with Japanese talent made him one of the big favorites for Ohtani’s services, though it was the local rival Angels who ultimately landed the two-way star, which must’ve been an added sting for Los Angeles’ blue team.

With no Stanton, no Ohtani, and no other truly high-profile moves, the relatively quiet nature of the Dodgers’ offseason has left some fans and pundits grumbling that the team did little to actually improve itself.  In fairness, the Dodgers did finish just one game away from a world championship in 2017, so the argument can certainly be made that not much needed to be done to an already successful core group of talent.

Quite a bit had to go right for L.A. last season, however, to make that postseason run.  The Dodgers were one of baseball’s best teams despite a league-high 38 separate DL stints for players in 2017, and while some of the most injury-prone members of that list are no longer on the roster, all five members of the projected starting rotation (Kershaw, Alex Wood, Rich Hill, Kenta Maeda, Hyun-Jin Ryu) missed time due to injury.  This will leave Los Angeles short on proven replacements in the event of more injuries, as McCarthy is now in Atlanta, top prospect Julio Urias is possibly out for the season recovering from shoulder surgery, and, most notably, Yu Darvish is now a Chicago Cub.

The Dodgers kept their eye on Darvish for much of the offseason and even floated a six-year offer to the right-hander, though that deal only worth around $100MM, rather than the $126MM Darvish eventually landed from the Cubs.  The Darvish offer was also dependent on the team being able to unload some other salary to stay under the tax threshold, so this was an instance where the Dodgers’ sudden lack of payroll flexibility may have cost them a top-tier player.

Font, Brock Stewart, Ross Stripling, and top prospect Walker Buehler now represent the Dodgers’ first line of starting pitching depth.  It’s not a bad group to have on paper, though the case could be made than even more depth is necessary given the starting five’s significant injury histories.  Veteran Tom Koehler was signed to provide innings as a swingman, though he may be facing a lengthy absence after suffering a mild AC strain.  With Stripling and Font potentially needed in the bullpen (which lost two workhorses in Avilan and Brandon Morrow), Los Angeles could look into picking up another veteran starter on a minor league deal.  One possibility could even be a reunion with Kazmir, who was just released by the Braves.

Speaking of depth, Justin Turner’s broken wrist leaves the Dodgers without their star third baseman until probably May.  Turner’s injury will see Logan Forsythe take over third base, leaving second base to a platoon of Utley against right-handed pitching and either Hernandez or Austin Barnes against southpaws.  In a bigger-picture sense, Turner’s absence leaves the Dodgers without a key player for at least the first part of the season, and wrist injuries can sometimes linger long after a player returns to the lineup.  Turner’s proven bat was a necessary component of the starting nine, given that it isn’t out of the question that Cody Bellinger experiences a sophomore slump, Chris Taylor declines after his breakout season, or Yasiel Puig reverts to his past inconsistency.

Overview

As more big contracts from the pre-Andrew Friedman/Farhan Zaidi era come off the books and more controllable younger players (i.e. Corey Seager, Bellinger, Taylor) emerge into larger roles, you can see how the Dodgers are positioning themselves for a more cost-effective future that still keeps them among baseball’s elite.  While critics could wonder why the team didn’t specifically bolster itself for another run in 2018, the Dodgers obviously don’t see their contention window closing anytime soon.  More moves could also come at the trade deadline, though a bit more creativity will be required by the front office to both keep payroll under $197MM while still adding reinforcements for another pennant drive.

What’s your take on the Dodgers’ winter?  (Link for app users.)

How Would You Grade The Dodgers' Offseason?
C 35.50% (1,421 votes)
B 32.90% (1,317 votes)
D 13.41% (537 votes)
A 11.22% (449 votes)
F 6.97% (279 votes)
Total Votes: 4,003

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Offseason In Review: New York Mets

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This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s 2017-18 Offseason In Review series.  Click here to read the other completed reviews from around the league.

After the Mets endured a Murphy’s Law season in 2017, general manager Sandy Alderson replaced their skipper and brought in several familiar names in free agency over the winter.

Major League Signings

Options Exercised

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

[Mets Depth Chart; Mets Payroll Information]

Needs Addressed

The Mets posted back-to-back playoff seasons from 2015-16 – the first of which included a National League pennant – and there was optimism they’d remain a formidable club last year. Instead, a spate of injuries to key players and disappointing performances from others sunk New York, which never recovered from a 10-14 April. Expectations throughout the Mets’ dismal season were that they’d replace manager Terry Collins afterward, and that’s exactly what happened. The 68-year-old Collins remains in the organization in a front office role, while the much younger Mickey Callaway, 42, is now overseeing the team’s dugout and clubhouse. Although Callaway never managed at any level before the Mets hired him, he did develop a sterling reputation in Cleveland, where he worked to great success as Terry Francona’s pitching coach from 2013-17.

Among the hurlers now at Callaway’s disposal are left-handed starter Jason Vargas and righty reliever Anthony Swarzak, two of the team’s free-agent pickups. The Mets guaranteed Vargas two years and $16MM with the hope that he’d deliver adequate innings as part of a starting staff that didn’t amass nearly enough of those a year ago. Vargas has a handful of high-inning, acceptable ERA seasons under his belt, including his 179 2/3-frame, 4.16 ERA showing with the Royals in 2017. That’s somewhat similar to the production Bartolo Colon offered the Mets from 2014-16, and they missed that during a horrid 2017 in which Jacob deGrom was their only starter to both escape the injury bug and perform to his potential. Unfortunately for the Mets, an injury has already come for Vargas, who suffered a fracture to his non-pitching hand in mid-March. He’s now set to begin 2018 on the disabled list, thereby creating a temporary starting spot for Seth Lugo.

Swarzak is healthy, meanwhile, and surely looking to replicate the age-31 season he enjoyed with the White Sox and Brewers in 2017. After a fairly up-and-down career from 2009-16, Swarzak broke out with a 2.33 ERA/2.74 FIP and 10.59 K/9 against 2.56 BB/9 last year. Only 11 other relievers outdid Swarzak’s 77 1/3 innings, and even fewer (seven) bettered his 2.2 fWAR. The latter figure placed him in similar company to Andrew Miller, Chad Green, Felipe Rivero and Archie Bradley, among other star relievers. That top-notch production led to a two-year, $14MM payday for Swarzak, who had to settle for a minor league contract the previous winter.

Along with Swarzak, the Mets’ bullpen will heavily feature lefty Jerry Blevins, whose $7MM option was an easy one for the Mets to pick up. Blevins was outstanding in New York from 2016-17, a 91-inning stretch in which he logged a 2.87 ERA/3.09 FIP with 11.97 K/9 and 3.86 BB/9. Although, it’s alarming that right-handed hitters crushed him to the tune of .288/.447/.545 in 2017 – an enormous departure from the .172/.266/.345 line they compiled against him the prior year. Historically, the 34-year-old has ended up somewhere in the middle of those lines versus righties, who’ve slashed .242/.343/.400 off Blevins since he debuted in 2007.

The rest of the Mets’ offseason attention went to its position player group, which actually wasn’t that bad last year (tied for ninth in wRC+, 11th in fWAR, 18th in runs). The most productive member of that faction was outfielder Michael Conforto, who was either elite or close to it before suffering a season-ending shoulder injury in late August. Conforto, 25, had to undergo surgery as a result, which will lead to a DL stint to begin 2018.

The Mets now know Conforto is on track to return soon, but they had to plan for a worst-case scenario in the offseason. To help protect against a potential long-term Conforto absence, they brought back outfielder Jay Bruce – a Met for parts of the previous two seasons – on a three-year, $39MM pact. Bruce got the exact contract MLBTR predicted back in November, but it still feels as if he did extremely well when considering the odd way in which free agency unfolded.

The 30-year-old Bruce landed his payday after enjoying one of his best seasons in 2017, which he divided between New York and Cleveland and hit .254/.324/.508 with 36 home runs and 2.7 fWAR across 617 plate appearances. In his second stint with the Mets, Bruce will work in right field (where the long-scrutinized defender quietly earned solid marks last year) and maybe even at first base, depending on what the Mets get from the combination of Adrian Gonzalez, Wilmer Flores and Dominic Smith.

Gonzalez will play with the Mets on a minimum salary after getting his release from the Braves, who acquired him from the Dodgers in a financially motivated trade. Atlanta, one of the Mets’ division rivals, will pay the rest of the $21.5MM Gonzalez was owed on the megadeal he signed with the Red Sox back in 2011. Gonzalez was among the premier sluggers in the game then, but he’s now a soon-to-be 36-year-old coming off a terrible season in which back problems limited him to 71 games, 252 PAs and an unsightly .242/.287/.355 line (69 wRC+). The lefty-swinger has been particularly poor against southpaws in three of the past four seasons (2014, 2016 and 2017), which could set him up to platoon with the righty-hitting Flores. Smith, a top 100 prospect prior to his ugly debut with the Mets last year, has been battling a strained quad for weeks. It’s unclear when he’ll return to action, but between his injury and the presences of Gonzalez, Flores and even Bruce, Smith seems likely to see a lot more time at Triple-A than in the majors this season.

Elsewhere in the infield, the Mets made one of the most impressive-looking signings of the offseason when they reeled in New Jersey native and ex-Yankee Todd Frazier on a two-year, $17MM accord in early February. Frazier was long on the radar of the Mets, who ended up with him instead of fellow targets Eduardo Nunez and Neil Walker (an ex-Met), Jason Kipnis (Indians, who nearly sent him to the Mets) Ian Kinsler (a former Tiger who’s now an Angel) and Josh Harrison (Pirates). The Mets understandably balked at dealing young outfielder Brandon Nimmo for Harrison after the former recorded a .379 OBP over 215 PAs in 2017. That was the first extensive big league action for the 24-year-old Nimmo, a 2011 first-round pick. Now, because he took last season’s audition and ran with it, Nimmo may play an even more prominent role this year.

Back to Frazier, who, unlike Bruce, didn’t make out nearly as well as expected in free agency. The 32-year-old was unable to parlay a consistently above-average career into a contract commensurate to it. Also a former member of the Reds and White Sox, Frazier has been worth between 2.5 and 4.8 fWAR in every season since 2012 (including an even 3.0 last year). He looks grossly underpaid relative to what he brings to the table, then, and should give the Mets a credible third bagger as pessimism continues to increase over the status of franchise icon David Wright. Back, neck and spine injuries limited Wright to 75 games from 2015-16, and he wasn’t able to take the field at all last year. Unfortunately, that may be the case again this season for the 35-year-old.

The signing of Frazier will kick Asdrubal Cabrera to second, his preferred position. Months before the Mets brought in Frazier, they exercised Cabrera’s $8.5MM option in early November. The 32-year-old isn’t going to wow anyone, but he has provided decent offensive production in both of his seasons as a Met.

The re-signed Jose Reyes will offer depth behind Cabrera and elsewhere around the infield, where he played everywhere but first base last season. The switch-hitting Reyes, 34, was effective along the way in totaling 2.0 fWAR and batting .246/.315/.413 with 15 home runs and a team-high 24 steals over 561 PAs. For a meager $2MM, it’s tough to argue with retaining Reyes from a baseball standpoint, though a past domestic violence suspension will always hang over his head.

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Offseason In Review: Oakland Athletics

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This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s 2017-18 Offseason In Review series.  Click here to read the other completed reviews from around the league.

After posting their third straight sub-.500 campaign in 2017, which they opened with a paltry $81MM-plus payroll, the Athletics will start the new season with an even lower outlay. They’re set to check in at around $70MM, the cheapest total in the majors and the franchise’s lowest since 2013, and the MLBPA has taken notice. The union filed a grievance against the A’s and three other small-spending, revenue sharing recipients last month, though nothing has come of it to this point. Having been atop the A’s baseball department since 1998, executive vice president Billy Beane has grown accustomed to Oakland’s relative lack of financial resources. And in spite of the A’s inability to throw money around, the on-field product seems to be on the upswing, thanks in part to the winter efforts of Beane and general manager David Forst.

Major League Signings

Trades And Claims

Option Decisions

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

Athletics Depth Chart; Athletics Payroll Information

Needs Addressed

At a combined $11.5MM, three free-agent signings will take up a decent chunk of Oakland’s season-opening payroll. The most noteworthy member of the group, catcher Jonathan Lucroy, didn’t ink a deal until March 12, making him one of the prominent victims of a famously slow-developing free-agent market. MLBTR predicted a two-year, $24MM contract for Lucroy at the outset of the offseason, but interest in the two-time All-Star was scarce after he he underwhelmed between Texas and Colorado in 2017.

The 31-year-old Lucroy is coming off the worst offensive season of his accomplished career, having hit .265/.345/.371 (82 wRC+) in 481 plate appearances, even though he racked up nearly as many unintentional walks (46) as strikeouts (51). He experienced a power outage that overshadowed his impressive strikeout-avoiding abilities, largely because while others around the game have worked to hit more fly balls, Lucroy went in the opposite direction. Lucroy hit grounders at a 53.5 percent rate (the 10th-highest mark in the sport), a massive increase over the 41.1 percent figure he put up from 2010-16. Moreover, the once-pristine pitch-framing grades he used to earn on the defensive side continued to drop off to an alarming extent, as this table from FanGraphs’ Jeff Sullivan indicates.

When you add those factors up, it’s no wonder Lucroy went four-plus months without a job. At the same time, though, he’s not far removed from a 2016 campaign in which he accounted for an excellent 4.6 fWAR, and Steamer is projecting 2.9 fWAR in 2018. ZiPS offers a far less enthusiastic forecast (1.9), meanwhile, but that would still be a palatable outcome for an A’s team that paid relatively little for Lucroy and isn’t tied to him for the long haul. And with the Bruce Maxwell–Josh Phegley tandem not inspiring much confidence, Oakland looked like a logical fit for Lucroy in the months before it signed him –  especially given that Maxwell is in legal trouble as a result of an early offseason arrest for a gun charge.

Shortly after they reeled in Lucroy, the A’s reunited with someone who figures to pitch to him this year, righty Trevor Cahill, whose signing came in response to starter Jharel Cotton’s season-ending injury. The 30-year-old Cahill had some of the top years of his career as a full-time starter in Oakland from 2009-11, but he has since shifted between teams’ rotations and bullpens to mixed results.

Most recently, Cahill struggled across 21 appearances (14 starts) with the Padres and Royals last year, when he pitched to a 4.93 ERA/5.28 FIP with an untenable walk rate (4.82 BB/9). Injuries were a major problem in 2017 for Cahill, who went on the disabled list three times because of shoulder and back issues. It’s hard to expect much from Cahill in 2018 (judging by his salary, the A’s agree). Because Cahill’s not stretched out enough to begin the year as a major league starter, he’ll open as depth – something the A’s need in the wake of the Cotton news, not to mention top prospect A.J. Puk’s biceps soreness and Paul Blackburn’s forearm strain.

Months before the Lucroy and Cahill signings, the A’s struck early in free agency when they committed a two-year, $10MM guarantee to workhorse reliever Yusmeiro Petit, who stood out with the division-rival Angels last season. Petit has been quietly superb at times since breaking out with the Giants in 2013, and that was especially true in 2017. The 33-year-old led all relievers in innings (87 1/3, excluding the four he picked up as a starter) and registered 1.9 fWAR out of the bullpen (tied with ex-Athletic Ryan Madson for 13th best in the league). Along the way, he managed a 2.76 ERA/2.85 FIP and appealing strikeout and walk rates (9.95 K/9, 1.77 BB/9).

Going forward, it would be overly optimistic to expect the soft-tossing Petit to be nearly that good again. He was subpar as recently as 2016, after all, and isn’t the darling of projection systems heading into the new year. As is the case with the Lucroy and Cahill additions, though, the price tag is low enough that Petit won’t exactly have to turn in an elite-caliber season to justify the signing. The hope is that he’ll be at least perform with reasonable effectiveness while continuing to eat innings, thus aiding an unspectacular-looking starting staff.

Joining Cahill and Petit in the A’s new-look bullpen will be two trade acquisitions, righty Emilio Pagan and lefty Ryan Buchter. The A’s got Pagan from the division-rival Mariners as part of a deal involving first baseman/former third baseman Ryon Healy, who shouldn’t be all that tough for Oakland to replace. Healy is young (26), cheap and had a memorable debut in 2016, but a lack of walks (4.1 percent) and a high batting average on balls in play (.352) made the .305/.337/.524 line he enjoyed in 283 PAs as a rookie hard to fully buy into. It wasn’t surprising that Healy came back to earth over 605 PAs last year (he batted a league-average .271/.302/.451), when his walk problem got even worse (3.8 percent) and his BABIP was a more normal-looking .319.

With third baseman Matt Chapman and first baseman Matt Olson having exploded on the scene in 2017, not to mention the presence of big-hitting DH Khris Davis, there was no clear path to at-bats in Oakland anymore for Healy. Consequently, Beane and Forst turned him into Pagan (also 26), who experienced his first MLB action last season and opened eyes in the process. After compiling consistently good numbers in the minors from 2013-17, Pagan came up and gave the Mariners quality production (3.22 ERA/3.28 FIP, 10.01 K/9, 1.43 BB/9 in 50 1/3 innings). Like Petit, Pagan seems to be capable of working more than your typical reliever, having gotten three or more outs in 13 of 34 appearances in 2017.

Buchter is also a reliable source of frames, as the 31-year-old collected 63 or more in each of his first two seasons. The former Padre and Royal has been steady overall, evidenced by a 2.85 ERA/3.82 FIP and 10.02 K/9 against 4.04 BB/9. Buchter has also been roughly as effective versus same-sided hitters (.249 wOBA against) and righties (.271), meaning he’s not just a lefty specialist. So, at the cost of the now-gone Brandon Moss (whom the A’s are paying $5MM through next season to not play for them), the up-and-down Jesse Hahn and decent pitching prospect Heath Fillmyer, the A’s seemingly did well to land Buchter’s four years of affordable control.

On the negative side, it’s worth noting that Buchter managed a horrid grounder percentage in 2017 (32.9), as did Petit (32.9) and Pagan (22.3). It’s anyone’s guess whether they’ll be able to continue limiting home runs this year, then, after they each allowed HRs at rates of 11 percent or less last season. If there’s an obvious reason for hope on that front, it’s that all three have helped cancel out their lack of grounders by inducing lots of infield pop-ups. Buchter has a 16.5 percent infield fly rate for his career, while Petit was at 18.6 last season and Pagan 12.2.

Buchter, Petit and Pagan will hope to keep tamping down dingers in 2018, but it’s the opposite for right fielder Stephen Piscotty, whom the A’s acquired from the Cardinals for infield prospects Max Schrock and Yairo Munoz in December. That came after the A’s flirted with acquiring the likes of Marcell Ozuna, Christian Yelich, Steven Souza Jr. and Adam Duvall. In the end, they emerged with Piscotty, who did cost them a couple interesting young players. Schrock is the Cardinals’ 10th-ranked prospect at MLB.com, and Munoz has already earned a roster spot in St. Louis.

It’s not hard to see why the A’s are bullish on Piscotty, who held his own from 2015-16 – a 905-PA span in which he slashed .282/.348/.467 (121 wRC+). Piscotty stumbled to .235/.342/.367 line (92 wRC+) in 401 PAs last season, but the 27-year-old was going through a hellish off-field situation in St. Louis, as his mother has been battling ALS back in Northern California. Now Piscotty – a Pleasanton, Calif., native – will be closer to her and have an opportunity to bounce back in a familiar setting. It should help his cause that the A’s park, the Oakland-Alameda Coliseum, was roughly middle of the pack in terms of HR friendless for right-handed hitters a year ago, whereas St. Louis’ Busch Stadium ranked among the most difficult venues for RH batters.

If Piscotty does revisit his 2015-16 form in his return home, he’ll be an absolute bargain on the extension the Cardinals gave him a year ago (he’s guaranteed roughly $30MM through 2023). At the very least, he should be a marked upgrade defensively over the right fielders Oakland trotted out last year. The A’s group was among the worst at the position then; meantime, Piscotty collected eight Defensive Runs Saved and paired that with a 1.7 Ultimate Zone Rating. All said, he has accounted for 12 DRS and a 4.1 UZR in 2,588 innings in right field since debuting in 2015.

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Offseason In Review: Atlanta Braves

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This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s 2017-18 Offseason In Review series.  Click here to read the other completed reviews from around the league.

A much-anticipated offseason started off with unexpected front office turnover and ended up focusing squarely on the future.

Major League Signings

Trades And Claims

Option Decisions

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

Braves 25-Man Roster & Minor League Depth Chart; Braves Payroll Overview

Needs Addressed

Whatever the Braves’ plans may have been heading into the offseason, they were jolted with the sudden and stunning downfall of former GM John Coppolella and eventual move of president of baseball operations John Hart out of his role atop the baseball hierarchy.

The former regime was toppled by a scandal arising out of the organization’s international signing practices. In addition to the front-office upheaval, the violations of MLB rules cost the organization its rights to several notable previously signed prospects and left it facing reduced international spending capabilities for several seasons as well as the loss of a third-round pick in the upcoming draft.

After dabbling in a move for former executive Dayton Moore, who instead remained with the Royals, the Atlanta organization struck a deal to bring in former Blue Jays GM and recent Dodgers exec Alex Anthopoulos. He’s now the top baseball decisionmaker in the Braves hierarchy.

Whether that shake-up changed the Braves’ plans for the 2017-18 winter will never really be known. But the organization certainly did not end up acting as many anticipated. Having opened Sun Trust Park last season and with an abundance of young talent reaching the majors, many anticipated that the organization would announce the beginning of the end of its rebuilding period by pursuing some significant additions via trade and/or free agency.

As it turned out, the Braves’ arguable on-field needs — including potential improvements at third base, the corner outfield, and the bullpen, along with veteran rotation help — were never really addressed, at least not in the manner of an organization that’s readying for contention. While the division-rival Phillies made two significant splashes and spent some real cash on their bullpen, the Braves pursued a course designed to clear future payroll capacity and support the ongoing development of internal talent.

The biggest need identified by Anthopoulos was not, say, finding a high-quality regular at the hot corner. Rather, it was figuring a way to move Matt Kemp and his significant remaining contractual obligations in an advantageous manner. After moving the remaining dollars owed to reliever Jim Johnson, Anthopoulos arrived at a fascinating money-shifting swap involving Kemp with none other than the organization he had just worked for. In a deal full of notable veteran names, the Braves shipped Kemp to the Dodgers in exchange for high-priced veterans Brandon McCarthy, Scott Kazmir, and Adrian Gonzalez — along with $4.5MM to make the deal entirely cash-neutral. Atlanta also landed versatile bench candidate Charlie Culberson.

The roster-clearing benefits for the Atlanta organization were clear. Moving Kemp out of the picture left the club free to try some other options in left field. The Braves claimed Preston Tucker and later signed Ezequiel Carrera; those two left-handed hitters could pair with the righty swinging Lane Adams. Of course, the real occupant of left is not going to open the 2018 campaign in the majors. All-world prospect Ronald Acuna ran roughshod over the Grapefruit League but will not make his MLB debut until later in the coming season. While Anthopoulos has insisted the decision was based purely on Acuna’s development, and he did race through the minors last year, there’s also little doubt that service-time considerations also played a role.

Of course, that could have been accomplished simply by cutting Kemp loose. Picking up the veteran trio was of greater utility, however, even with Gonzalez being cut loose. Kazmir and especially McCarthy will represent 2018 rotation candidates for the Braves, thus obviating the need to spend more on veteran pitching to build out the rotation. Having already declined an option over knuckler R.A. Dickey, the Braves needed some innings to avoid putting too much pressure on their young arms.

Additionally, the swap shifted the payroll hit from Kemp forward. The Dodgers preferred to consolidate the money they owed to free them from the luxury tax this year. For the Braves, though, the move allowed the team to spend down its obligations now while clearing the books for 2019. Now, only Freddie Freeman, Julio Teheran, and Ender Inciarte are promised money for the future.

It seems, though, that the financial shift also tamped down the likelihood of any significant outlays for the 2018 season, as the immediate payroll ballooned. That left the Braves seeking low-commitment additions throughout the winter. In addition to picking up Tucker and Carrera in the outfield, Anthopoulos added a variety of infielders, including Culberson, Danny Santana, Christian Colon, and Ryan Schimpf. Having already extended Kurt Suzuki to reunite with Tyler Flowers behind the dish, the club added Chris Stewart on a non-guaranteed MLB deal and Rob Brantly on a minors pact to round out the catching depth. After losing Luiz Gohara to injury, the club picked up Anibal Sanchez on a minors pact to deepen the rotation mix. And Anthopoulos added a variety of low-risk relievers, including Chase Whitley, Shane Carle, Josh Ravin, and Tommy John patient Grant Dayton. None of those players cost the Braves more than a de minimus amount of cash, 40-man spot, and/or a non-roster invitation.

Questions Remaining

The club’s approach hardly seems to set the stage for a 2018 postseason berth, though a run can never be ruled out. There is, after all, quite a lot of intriguing talent spread across the Braves’ MLB roster and top minor-league affiliates. But there are also loads of questions, the answers to which will help chart the future for the organization.

We already touched upon the outfield situation. Ender Inciarte is firmly ensconced in center, while Nick Markakis will presumably handle the bulk of the time in right during the final season of his contract. That leaves left field open to examination as the season progresses. Unless Acuna is injured or unexpectedly stumbles at Gwinnett, odds are the pressure will steadily mount for him to be handed the reins — particularly if the Braves get off to a decent start and/or the platoon players don’t pan out.

The right side of the infield is set with star first baseman Freddie Freeman and young second bagger Ozzie Albies, who has earned a long leash after a strong, 57-game debut showing last year. Likewise, the catching situation is largely settled to open the season, as the Flowers/Suzuki pairing will handle the duties.

There’s more potential intrigue, though, in the remaining two spots on the dirt. Dansby Swanson’s sophomore swoon tamped down excitement about his future, though there’s still good reason to believe he’ll be a quality regular and ample cause for the Braves to exercise patience. Third base is largely wide open. It seems the organization will give Johan Camargo a shot at proving he’s no flash in the pan, though he’s expected to open the year on the DL. Schimpf perhaps could have received a shot but turned in a rather unbelievable 0-for-30 performance this spring. Rio Ruiz has not exactly seized his limited opportunities to date but has perhaps shown enough at Triple-A to warrant a chance. Otherwise, the club would likely be left with a mix of Culberson and Santana to hold down the fort. Well-regarded prospect Austin Riley could force his way into the picture if he keeps mashing; no doubt the hope is he’ll earn the job in the long run. It’s perhaps still possible that the Braves could end up finding another option from outside the organization over the next few weeks.

The pitching staff, meanwhile, is chock full of wild cards. The top four members of the rotation are clear, but each comes with as much uncertainty as talent. Julio Teheran is looking to bounce back from a mediocre 2017 season, Mike Foltynewicz will try to turn the corner, McCarthy has made just 25 starts over the past two seasons, and power lefty Sean Newcomb needs to show that he can limit the free passes. A rotation slot had been intended for youngster Luiz Gohara, who impressed at all levels (including a five-start MLB debut) last year. But he suffered a few injuries in camp and now looks to be ticketed for a reasonably lengthy layoff, leaving the door open behind him. While Atlanta may not need a fifth starter to open the year, the club will eventually need to fill out the starting staff. Kazmir and Sanchez are the notable names here, with both looking to rebound from unproductive recent seasons. Otherwise, Matt Wisler, Aaron Blair, or Lucas Sims could again be given opportunities despite failing to capitalize on their prior chances.

No matter how that situation sorts itself out, the Braves will be weighing all season long whether and when to make some further promotions. Touted young hurlers such as Kolby Allard, Mike Soroka, Max Fried, and Kyle Wright are expected to knock on the door in the near term. With another wave of talent coming up behind them, the front office surely won’t hesitate to take a look at those arms against the game’s best hitters when they’re deemed ready. After all, it could soon be necessary to make some tough calls on which pitchers to keep and which to dangle in trades.

If Anthopoulos focused anywhere in particular this winter, it seems to have been the bullpen, where the club added new arms and outrighted Mauricio Cabrera and Luke Jackson. There are loads of options stacked up for trials and patches as the situation dictates. Arodys Vizcaino will be looking for some elusive consistency after a strong 2017 effort, with Jose Ramirez and lefty A.J. Minter primed to join him at the back of the pen. Veterans Peter Moylan and Sam Freeman figure to provide some stability. Dan Winkler, whose Rule 5 status is still not fully determined, will hope to remain healthy and effective.

That likely leaves two spots still open to some debate, with Whitley, Ravin, Carle, Wisler, and Blair perhaps the chief candidates to open the season on the active roster now that Rule 5er Anyelo Gomez has been returned. Lefty Rex Brothers has struggled this spring after agreeing to a non-guaranteed arb deal. Reclamation projects Jesse Biddle and Jacob Lindgren could represent interesting southpaw candidates at some point but aren’t immediate options (with the former already having been optioned and the latter dealing with elbow issues). Righties Jason Hursh and Akeel Morris won’t make the active roster but are still on the 40-man, as are young southpaws Adam McCreery and Ricardo Sanchez. Needless to say, it’s likely there’ll be quite a lot of turnover in the relief unit as the season goes on. With 26 pitchers on the 40-man roster at present, it’s all but certain that a few hurlers will end up being traded or placed on outright waivers at some point.

Overview

Outside of those roster spots that were locked down entering the winter, the strategy was obviously to build out depth, seek some diamonds in the rough, and create competition. That process is likely to carry on throughout the season as needs arise and players sink or swim. The Braves will surely prioritize protecting their future talent pool over maximizing immediate MLB performance, but plenty of difficult decisions will begin to be made as camp draws to a close. While the organization doesn’t really have loads of veterans that figure to profile as mid-season trade candidates, it’s certainly possible that deals will be considered at some point for Teheran, McCarthy, Markakis, and certain veteran relievers or bench pieces. Expectations are tempered for the coming season, but fans and the front office alike will surely be watching closely at how things are shaping up for 2019 and beyond.

How would you grade the organization’s offseason efforts? (Link for app users.)

How Would You Grade The Braves' Offseason?
C 40.42% (1,554 votes)
B 27.20% (1,046 votes)
D 17.24% (663 votes)
F 8.01% (308 votes)
A 7.13% (274 votes)
Total Votes: 3,845

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason In Review: Chicago Cubs

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This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s 2017-18 Offseason In Review series.  Click here to read the other completed reviews from around the league.

The Cubs landed the biggest prize of the 2017-18 free agent class, and stayed entirely within free agency for pitching staff upgrades.

Major League Signings

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

Cubs 25-Man Roster & Minor League Depth Chart; Cubs Payroll Overview

Needs Addressed

After the Dodgers denied the Cubs’ bid to return to the World Series, a coaching staff shake-up was the first order of business for Chicago.  Longtime pitching coach Chris Bosio was the first casualty, with hitting coach John Mallee being fired shortly thereafter.  Jim Hickey, with his history of serving as Joe Maddon’s pitching coach with the Rays, replaced Bosio.  Chili Davis takes over for Mallee.  The Cubs also lost Dave Martinez, who was hired to serve as the Nationals’ manager.

The Cubs spent much of November and early December courting Japanese phenom Shohei Ohtani.  While they were one of seven finalists, the Cubs were a long shot as a National League club located in the Midwest.  Once Ohtani chose the Angels, focus turned to the Cubs’ more likely free agent pursuits, which centered entirely on pitching.  Starters Jake Arrieta and John Lackey became free agents after making 60 starts for the 2017 club, and the Cubs sought to replace them from outside of the organization.  After coming up short on a very different pitcher out of Japan, returning expat Miles Mikolas, the Cubs signed former Rockie Tyler Chatwood to a surprisingly large contract for a pitcher coming off a 4.69 ERA.  Cubs president Theo Epstein later explained to Jon Greenberg of The Athletic in late January, “He was really popular. A lot of teams saw beyond his basic performance stats and looked deeper into his ability. He was at the right price point and had a ton of suitors, so that drove the price up.”  Now that he’s out of Colorado, Chatwood has several things going for him: his age (28), his ability to induce groundballs, and a fastball approaching 95 miles per hour.  Though it was surprising to see Chatwood land at nearly $13MM a year, he’s a solid upside choice to replace Lackey.

Throughout the offseason, the Cubs declined to close the door on former ace Arrieta, though they didn’t make much effort to bring him back, either.  Though the Joe Maddon/Jim Hickey connection to free agent Alex Cobb led many to predict a match with the Cubs, the team instead aimed higher for their other rotation addition with a run at Yu Darvish.  At the same time, the Cubs quietly made a different free agent signing with a Maddon/Hickey connection, lefty Drew Smyly.  Smyly had undergone Tommy John surgery in June of 2017, and was signed with an eye toward the 2019 rotation.  If Smyly returns to full health and ability for 2019, the Cubs will have a good kind of problem on their hands in that they’ll have six established starting pitchers under control for that season.

According to Epstein, it was around the December Winter Meetings that the Cubs realized “we might be in a position to end up at least being a contender for Darvish with a contract that we could tolerate,” reported Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times.  Cubs brass met with Darvish in Texas, and it seemed possible the two sides could hammer out a megadeal before the end of the year.  Instead, the Cubs’ December dealings, aside from Smyly, were the bullpen additions of Brandon Morrow and Steve Cishek.  Morrow, 33, will serve as the Cubs’ closer.  While his contract is reasonable, the risk comes in the Cubs’ reliance upon a pitcher with Morrow’s lengthy injury history and heavy 2017 postseason workload.  Given the volatility of relievers, the contract itself is no riskier than those given to Wade Davis, Mike Minor, Jake McGee, Bryan Shaw, Tommy Hunter, Juan Nicasio, and others.

January came and went without a Darvish deal, part of one of the strangest offseasons in this website’s history.  Instead, the Cubs spent that month coming to terms with star third baseman Kris Bryant on a record arbitration deal, and also completing their bullpen additions by bringing lefty Brian Duensing back on a mild discount.  The Cubs’ bullpen holdovers are Duensing, Carl Edwards Jr., Mike Montgomery, and Pedro Strop.  Replacing Wade Davis, Hector Rondon, Justin Grimm, and Koji Uehara are Morrow, Cishek, a full season of Justin Wilson, and perhaps Eddie Butler and a less-established arm.  It feels like the Cubs could have added one more late-inning piece to the pen.

The Cubs saved their biggest splash for February, when they agreed to a six-year, $126MM deal with Darvish.  The Dodgers, Twins, and Brewers were among the teams the Cubs beat out for the righty.  Darvish’s $21MM average annual value was surprisingly low.  We had expected an AAV in the $25-27MM range, given previous contracts signed by David Price, Max Scherzer, Zack Greinke, Stephen Strasburg, and the Cubs’ own Jon Lester.  Like other big market teams, the Cubs are intent on staying below the $197MM competitive balance tax threshold, and the sixth year given to Darvish helped accomplish that.  From Darvish’s point of view, the opt-out after 2019 has significant value: about $20MM, estimates MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.  Darvish will be 33 when the clause comes due, and he’ll have to decide whether he can top four years and $81MM on the 2019-20 free agent market.

Questions Remaining

The Cubs appear to have $13MM or less for trade deadline acquisitions.  Regarding his trade deadline payroll flexibility, Epstein said, “We do have some, not a ton.”  Epstein admitted, “One of our goals was to put the team together this year in a way that would maybe allow us to reset under the CBT threshold.” This is not actually a reset, since the Cubs were not over the CBT threshold in 2017.  Regardless, it’s possible the luxury tax threshold stopped the Cubs from assembling a super bullpen despite their relief pitching problems in the playoffs.  Aside from the health of Morrow, much depends on southpaw Justin Wilson, who flopped after joining the Cubs last year at the trade deadline.  It’s difficult to say exactly why the Cubs didn’t acquire additional relievers – it may be that they’re completely satisfied with their bullpen as it stands, or don’t mind waiting until July to re-evaluate.  But since the CBT threshold may have been a factor in their bullpen budgeting, let’s explore it further.

The Cubs may be willing to exceed next year’s $206MM CBT threshold, but aim to be considered a “first-time CBT payor.”  Second-time payors pay 30% on the overage, while first-time payors pay 20%.  Avoiding the CBT threshold in 2018 also affects what the Cubs would have to surrender next year upon signing a qualified free agent.  They’d give up their second-highest draft pick regardless, but avoiding the threshold allows them to keep their fifth-highest pick and also have their international signing bonus pool reduced by $500K instead of $1MM.  I have to ask of the Cubs, Yankees, and Dodgers: why does this difference in penalties matter so much?

Say the Cubs had gone all out and also signed Addison Reed and Mike Minor this winter, adding $17.7MM to the 2018 payroll.  That would put the team’s 2018 payroll at $202MM for luxury tax purposes.  Say they spend another $12MM on midseason acquisitions and end at $214MM for 2018.  That means they’d pay a tax of…$3.4MM.  Basically a rounding error for this franchise.  Paying the tax for a potential 2018 overage is irrelevant at this spending level.

Therefore, this has to be all about being a first-time payor in 2019 rather than a second-time payor.  If you’ll indulge me, let’s play that out for a team with a massive $275MM payroll in 2019.  On a $275MM payroll, a first-time CBT payor is penalized $28.525MM, while a second-time payor is penalized $36.15MM.  If a team is conceding being a first-time payor in 2019 (as the Cubs seem to be), being a second-time payor only results in less than $8MM in additional tax, even at a very high payroll level.  Carrying that hypothetical payroll level forward for yet another season would result in a larger hit, but it would still be less than $14MM, and from that point forward the tax rate would be the same for an organization that stayed over the luxury line.  Ah, but what about the draft pick penalty for exceeding the 2019 second surcharge threshold of $246MM?  That’ll knock your 2020 draft pick back a full ten spots.  Meaning, a good team has to pick at #37 instead of #27, something like that.  Compared to the previous CBA, where draft picks as high as 11th overall were surrendered for signing certain free agents, dropping ten spots doesn’t seem that bad.

Large market teams are treating the CBT thresholds as lines they absolutely cannot cross. Or at least that they cannot cross for consecutive years.  Rather than take that at face value, we need to ask whether the CBT thresholds are being used as a convenient excuse to spend less. The tax can be hefty, no doubt, and it is understandable that organizations already facing max penalties — particularly those that often spend well over the threshold — would look for an opportunity to reset. But the timing of entering CBT payor status does not appear to be a particularly compelling limitation on spending in and of itself.

My payroll tangent aside, the Cubs also have the question of a possible position player logjam.  On his decision not to trade anyone, Epstein told Greenberg, “We explored a lot of a different possibilities, but in the end there just wasn’t a deal available that would give us a fair return back. We didn’t want to take less talent or control just to add a pitching prospect. Balancing the roster wasn’t that fundamental to make a bad deal happen.”  The Cubs can’t be faulted for declining to sell low on Kyle Schwarber, who dedicated himself to an offseason conditioning program in the meantime.  If all of the Cubs’ many outfield and second base candidates stay healthy at once, which is unlikely, Maddon may need to make the tough decision to bench his two underperforming veterans, Jason Heyward and Ben Zobrist. Even if that comes to pass, it’s likely preferable to taking less than fair value for a controllable young player or finding the depth lacking if is tested.

Overview

The Cubs were able to use an opt-out clause for Darvish to lower the AAV on his contract, helping the team stay below the competitive balance tax threshold.  They were able to accomplish this because other big market teams had even less space under that threshold, and small market teams couldn’t match the Cubs’ bid.  They also brought in an intriguing and relatively young fifth starter in Chatwood, resulting in what looks to be the best starting rotation of the Epstein regime.  While fresh faces in the bullpen were a given, the volatility of relief pitching makes it unclear whether the Cubs did enough in that area.  Otherwise, the team remains stacked with high quality position players.  The Cubs will likely tangle with the Nationals and Dodgers for the NL pennant once again.

How would you grade the efforts of Epstein and company? (Link for app users.)

How Would You Grade The Cubs' Offseason?
A 41.50% (2,594 votes)
B 40.06% (2,504 votes)
C 11.52% (720 votes)
F 4.21% (263 votes)
D 2.70% (169 votes)
Total Votes: 6,250

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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