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MLBTR Originals

Taking Inventory: Philadelphia Phillies

By Steve Adams | June 9, 2017 at 9:08pm CDT

MLBTR is launching a new summer series entitled ’Taking Inventory,’ in which we’ll preview the potential trade chips that could become available on a number of likely and borderline selling clubs throughout the league.

Entering the season, the Phillies would’ve been on the short list of clubs that were near universally expected to be deadline sellers in 2017. Philadelphia’s rebuilding efforts have been well documented, and while there was plenty of promise thanks to young pieces such as Odubel Herrera, Maikel Franco, Aaron Nola, Vince Velasquez, Jerad Eickhoff and Zach Eflin, that rebuilding effort was all but certain to continue.

Fast forward two months, and things in Philadelphia are more dire than nearly anyone could have predicted. At 21-37, Philadelphia has baseball’s worst record. They went 6-22 in the month of May. Their collective ERA is an MLB-worst 5.02, and they rank 26th in both runs scored and OBP. Suffice it to say, the 2017 season isn’t going well, and for a rebuilding team, that can only mean more trades to stockpile young talent. With that in mind, here’s a look at what the Phillies have to offer other clubs…

Rentals

Pat Neshek, RHP (reliever) | Salary: $6.5MM

Acquired in what amounted to a salary dump this offseason, Neshek has been the Phillies’ best reliever in 2017. Through 22 innings, he’s pitched to a pristine 0.82 ERA with 8.6 K/9, 1.6 BB/9 and a 35.8 percent ground-ball rate. He’s always been a buzzsaw against right-handed opponents, but lefties have posted a woeful .143/.194/.176 batting line against the 36-year-old Neshek in 37 plate appearances this season. That’s obviously a small sample, but Neshek’s control against both lefties and righties has been markedly better in 2017 than in previous seasons, so some of the improvements against lefties could be legitimate.

Joaquin Benoit, RHP (reliever) | Salary: $7.5MM

Another bullpen stopgap, Benoit has pitched reasonably well when healthy enough to toe the rubber. He’s been on the disabled list since June 1 due to a knee sprain, but there’s no indication that the injury is serious in nature. Assuming he returns and demonstrates his health, Benoit should draw some interest for teams in need of middle relief and/or setup help. The 39-year-old veteran has totaled 22 innings of 3.68 ERA ball, averaging 7.8 K/9 against 4.9 BB/9 with a 30.9 percent ground-ball rate. Those numbers, of course, aren’t exactly outstanding, but virtually all of the damage against Benoit has been confined to two outings in 2017. He served up five runs in an epic meltdown on May 10 and another three on April 16. Benoit had tossed eight scoreless innings prior to his injury.

Jeanmar Gomez, RHP (reliever) | Salary: $4.2MM

The Phillies couldn’t drum up much interest in Gomez at last year’s trade deadline despite the fact that he was sporting a 2.77 ERA and 27 saves at the time of the trade deadline. Given his dismal 7.13 ERA and the loss of nearly one full mile per hour off his fastball through his first 17 2/3 innings this year, it’s not likely that Gomez will generate much intrigue. He’s posted a more encouraging 17-to-6 K/BB ratio (two of the walks being intentional) and a solid 52.8 percent ground-ball rate, though, so there’s at least some hope of a turnaround.

Jeremy Hellickson, RHP (starter) | Salary: $17.2MM

Like Neshek, Hellickson was acquired more or less as a salary dump — just one offseason prior. The former Rays top prospect had a rebound campaign with Philadelphia last year, tossing 189 innings with a 3.71 ERA, 7.3 K/9, 2.1 BB/9 and a 40.7 percent ground-ball rate. However, Hellickson was somewhat surprisingly not traded at last year’s deadline and, in another surprise, accepted a $17.2MM qualifying offer rather than seeking a larger guarantee on a multi-year deal in a weak market for starters. His strikeout rate has absolutely plummeted, as he’s punched out just 28 hitters in 66 innings (3.8 K/9). Hellickson is still showing good control, and his 4.50 ERA is at least respectable, but metrics like FIP (5.82), xFIP (5.88) and SIERA (5.77) all scream regression.

Howie Kendrick, LF/RF/2B/1B | Salary: $10MM

Yet another low-cost pickup for GM Matt Klentak, Kendrick has been on an all-out tear since returning from a DL stint for an abdominal strain. The versatile 33-year-old (34 next month) is hitting .333/.378/.522 on the season. That production comes with a ridiculous and unsustainable .422 average on balls in play, but Kendrick has a pair of homers, five doubles and a triple on the season thus far to go along with three steals. With his versatility and experience, he could appeal to a vast number of contenders if he can sustain some of this production.

Michael Saunders, RF/LF | Salary: $9MM

With a .213/.262/.377 batting line through his first 195 plate appearances on the season, Saunders looks more like a release candidate than a trade candidate. But he’s not far removed from an outrageously good first half in 2016, and if he can rebound at the plate, the Phils could find a taker to absorb a bit of his salary. There’s an $11MM club option with a $1MM buyout attached to Saunders’ deal, but it’d take a remarkable turnaround for the Phillies or any other team to consider exercising it.

Daniel Nava, RF/LF/1B | Salary: $1.35MM

A minor league signee that has paid dividends thus far, Nava is sporting a high-quality .306/.429/.452 triple slash through a modest sample of 77 plate appearances. Nava’s not going to command much of a return even if he continues to hit well, but the veteran switch-hitter could be a nice bench piece for a contending club.

Andres Blanco, SS/2B/3B/1B | Salary: $3MM

Blanco was a quietly productive bench piece for the Phils from 2015-16, but he’s not going to draw much interest with a .180/.268/.260 line. He’s tallied just 56 plate appearances this year, so he can turn things around in a hurry. The switch-hitter crushed lefties in 2015 and hit righties well in 2016. If he turns it on before July 31, he, like Nava, could be a bench piece elsewhere.

Controlled Through 2018

Freddy Galvis, SS | Salary: $4.4MM

Galvis posted the worst OBP in baseball in 2016 (.274) and was still worth better than two wins above replacement due to sensational defense at shortstop and a surprise 20-homer season. The 27-year-old switch-hitter is showing some power once again and playing good defense as well. With a .245/.297/.420 batting line, he’s not an elite shortstop, but that triple slash paired with his glove and baserunning could help a club both this year and next. Unfortunately for the Phillies, there aren’t many contenders in need of a starting shortstop. However, injuries can change the marketplace in a hurry, and some clubs may like the idea of Galvis as a defensive-minded bench piece with some pop.

Longer-Term Assets

Cameron Rupp, C; Tommy Joseph, 1B ; Cesar Hernandez, 2B ; Hector Neris, RHP (reliever) | All pre-arbitration

None of this bunch stands out as especially likely to be moved, but the Phillies do have promising alternatives in the minors that could take their place if a rival club makes an enticing offer. Andrew Knapp and Jorge Alfaro both represent potential long-term options at catcher. Rhys Hoskins has 52 minor league homers dating back to Opening Day 2016 and could step in for Joseph at first base. Second base prospect Scott Kingery is having a monster season in Double-A. The Phils have a number of enticing young arms that could slot into the ninth inning, with Edubray Ramos already in the Majors and several promising arms in the upper minors.

Rupp and Hernandez are controlled through the 2020 season, while Neris is controlled through 2021 and Joseph all the way through 2022.

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MLBTR Originals Philadelphia Phillies Taking Inventory 2017

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Trade Candidate: Christian Yelich

By Connor Byrne | June 8, 2017 at 11:53am CDT

The Marlins signed outfielder Christian Yelich to a seven-year, $49.57MM contract extension in 2015 with the idea that he’d be a long-term cornerstone in Miami, and that could still end up as the case. However, after rejecting other teams’ overtures for Yelich in the past, the Marlins will reportedly listen to offers for the 25-year-old if they’re not in the playoff hunt near next month’s trade deadline.

At 25-33 and 12 games back of the NL East-leading Nationals, Miami is all but out of its division race already, which leaves a wild-card berth as its only hope. The Marlins are a lofty 9.5 games back of the NL’s last playoff spot, though, and their minus-26 run differential isn’t indicative of a sleeper team whose record is particularly unlucky.

Barring a major turnaround in the coming weeks, the Marlins are probably going to sell in an effort to strengthen their farm system. The Fish clearly need to replenish their prospect pool, which ESPN’s Keith Law (subscription required and recommended) ranked 29th in the majors entering the season and could see promising left-hander Braxton Garrett undergo Tommy John surgery. As arguably Miami’s best trade chip, dealing Yelich would add much-needed talent to the organization’s pipeline, though it would obviously further weaken whatever chances it has to compete in the near future.

Christian Yelich

Yelich, a 2010 first-round pick who made his big league debut in 2013, established himself as a high-average, high-OBP hitter who could steal double-digit bases and play a quality left field during his first two-plus years in the league. While that blend of skills made Yelich quite valuable, the lefty-swinger didn’t complement it with much power, hitting only 20 home runs and posting a .116 ISO in 1,458 plate appearances. Last year was a different story, though, as Yelich swatted 21 homers and recorded a .185 ISO (league average was .162) in 659 PAs en route to a career-best .298/.376/.483 line and his second 4-fWAR season.

Now, Yelich is again on pace for a respectable campaign (he has accrued 1.3 fWAR in 246 plate trips), but the terrific offensive production he registered from 2013-16 hasn’t been present. At .259/.343/.392, Yelich has logged a league-average OPS+ (100) and a slightly below-average wRC+ (97). With a .132 ISO, the grounder-hitting Yelich has also lost much of the power he showed last season. One obvious problem has been a lack of line drives, as Yelich’s 17.1 percent mark is both a career worst and a 6.3 percent decline from last season.

Even if Yelich’s batted-ball profile stays the same, there are reasons to expect positive regression in his production. Yelich’s batting average on balls in play (.286) is 68 points lower than his career figure (.354), for one, and his .342 xwOBA (via Baseball Savant) indicates he deserves better than his actual wOBA (.319). Plus, Yelich has continued to walk at a solid clip (10.6 percent, compared to a career 10.4 percent), and has not contributed to the league’s growing strikeout trend. Yelich has struck out just 16.7 percent of the time, which is far better than both his lifetime mark (20.4) and the league average (21.6).

While Yelich’s offensive game is the main reason he’s so highly regarded, defense has also been a strength. Yelich combined for 32 Defensive Runs Saved and a 12.3 Ultimate Zone Rating in left field from 2013-16, leading the Marlins to shift him to the outfield’s most important position – center – during the offseason. The returns have been encouraging so far, albeit over a small sample, with Yelich having saved a pair of runs and contributed a 7.5 UZR/150.

Affordable, well-rounded players – especially those who can handle a premium position – obviously carry major value, evidenced by the prospect haul the Nationals sent to the White Sox for Adam Eaton over the winter. Washington parted with two of MLB.com’s top 40 prospects, right-handers Lucas Giolito (No. 3) and Reynaldo Lopez (No. 38), as well as 2016 first-round righty Dane Dunning to acquire up to five years and $38.4MM of Eaton. Yelich is three years younger than Eaton and also comes at a very reasonable cost. He’s due around $45MM through 2021 and either a $15MM club option or a $1.25MM buyout in 2022. Yelich has already outperformed the worth of his contract, per FanGraphs, which values his production at $64.5MM dating back to 2015.

If the Marlins do market the remainder of Yelich’s 20s prior to the deadline, plenty of potential suitors are likely to emerge. Thanks to Yelich’s age and team control, even clubs that aren’t in the playoff hunt this season (but view themselves as near-future contenders) could attempt to acquire him. As such, the Marlins would probably be in position to add multiple high-end youngsters to a system that, in Baseball America’s view, only has one top 100 prospect. That prospect, Garrett, falls toward the low end of BA’s list (No. 80) and is now facing a rather uncertain future on account of his elbow injury.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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MLBTR Originals Miami Marlins Trade Candidate Christian Yelich

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The Glass Is Always Half-Full: A Conversation With Jayson Stark

By Chuck Wasserstrom | June 7, 2017 at 1:56pm CDT

There once was a day-and-age when, if your services were no longer needed, you could keep it quiet.

And there once was a day-and-age when, if you were a baseball writer and had a scoop, you would have to do everything you could to keep it under wraps until that revelation appeared in the next day’s newspaper.

In today’s world, though, it’s nearly impossible to keep a secret.

“When I first started, newspapers were king … and we lived in a tomorrow morning world. If you got a story, you had to try to protect it all day and all night,” said Jayson Stark, who has been a fixture on the MLB scene since 1979.

“It’s crazy to think about that, compared to what goes on now – where you hear it and you just tweet it … fire it out there … it’s on your site … you blog it. It’s so amusing to think about the stuff that we had to do to try to guard our stories for hours and hours and hours back in the day.”

In late April, Stark – who was used to breaking baseball news – suddenly was about to become news. The word was going to get out that he was no longer working for ESPN, so he provided his own scoop on Twitter: “For 17 yrs I’ve had a dream job covering baseball for ESPN. Today is my last day. Thanks to all the great people at ESPN, MLB & all of you!”

Stark had joined ESPN as a senior baseball writer in 2000, and his Rumblings and Grumblings column was a must-read. Before his time there, he had worked for The Philadelphia Inquirer since 1979 – first, as a Phillies beat writer and later as a national baseball writer and columnist. He became a household name in the baseball community thanks to his syndicated weekly baseball roundup, where he loved to share the stories behind the stories and the humorous side of the sport.

His mantra: “I have always felt that the challenge is to tell the best stories, get the best information, get the best quotes, and find the best nuggets,” he said.

As a “free agent,” Stark is mulling his next career move. When a decision is made, his 535,000-plus Twitter followers (@jaysonst, for those who don’t) will be among the first to know.

Stark is accustomed to calling around in search of information or guidance. This time, the table was turned; he was the one answering the questions during his first extended interview since his departure from ESPN.

– – –

Chuck Wasserstrom: Thank you for taking the time to talk with MLB Trade Rumors. I’m going to start out by asking … what has this past month been like for you? There had to be that weird sensation where it’s almost like you’re being eulogized and you’re clearly still around. Kind of walk me through these last few weeks.

Jayson Stark: “There was a period where it felt like every five minutes, someone in baseball or the media universe was calling me and telling me the most incredible stuff I’d ever heard about myself. That was just overwhelming. It was amazing. At one point, my wife told me, ‘You should make a list of everybody who has checked in.’ So I did. And in just the first few days there were way over a hundred people just from inside baseball. That didn’t even count all my fellow baseball writers, people in the media, people I just befriended and met along the way who have helped me with all kinds of cool stuff, and readers and viewers and listeners. If I counted all them, it would be in the thousands.

“I don’t know how everybody reacts when that happens to them, but I’m so grateful. I really spent weeks trying to return every message, every phone call, every email, every tweet that I could, every Facebook post, every text. It was incredible and gratifying and it was fuel to keep going.

“The second part I think is … all right, how do you handle an event like this? For me, I’m Mr. Positivity anyway, so I’m just looking for that next cool thing to do. I’m taking my time and trying to find that thing.

“The third part of it is … I’ve been busier than you would think I would be. Part of that is just because I thought it was important to wake up every single day with a purpose. My routine is not that different than it’s always been. Pretty much every day, I watch video of the day before in baseball, and I keep my daily books of stuff that I find cool and fun and strange and interesting. I keep my day-by-day books because I want to stay engaged in a sport that I love.

“ESPN’s been kind enough to let me continue to do all the local radio hits on ESPN affiliates around the country that I was doing every week. So I still do them and that’s been fun. I’ve put a lot of energy into that because I enjoy it. One thing that I think has always been clear is this was a labor of love for me. It was a dream job for me. I wanted to make clear by the way I went about life after ESPN that I still love it and I will continue to love it. Whatever I do next, I’ll love that. That’s been a big part of it.

“Then, of course, the last thing is … people like us – we don’t get to breathe in and breathe out during the baseball season. I really want to make sure that I do that – and spend time with my wife and my family and my friends. There’s going to be some opportunities to do things that I haven’t been able to do in the summer, and I’m going to make sure I do that. I’m going to go to Cooperstown for induction weekend. It’s been hard to do that in recent years because it’s right around the trading deadline.

“To me, this time has been strange, but my glass is always half full – and it’s been half full every day through all of it.”

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I can’t put myself in your shoes, but I thought it was tremendous when Jerry Crasnick posted his Mount Rushmore of writers – and his list consisted of Peter Gammons, Hal McCoy, Ross Newhan and Jayson Stark. When you first saw that, what did that mean to you?

“That was unbelievable. Jerry’s one of my best friends in the business. He’s one of my best friends, period. We’ve worked together. We’ve spent a lot of time together. For him to do that, say that, post that, and then have people respond to it the way they did, I don’t even know how to put stuff like that into words. It just means so much to me … the outpouring that I’ve gotten. It’s from people who I love and respect like Jerry, and then all the people in the business who responded to his post – including Ross and Hal and Peter. All of them saying that I deserve the Spink Award.

“Seriously, I don’t have a big ego. I don’t walk around thinking of myself as some legend. That’s just not who I am, but all of a sudden, when you go through something like this and people feel this need to pour their hearts out and tell me how great I am at my job … these things don’t happen to many people in life. I’m just overwhelmed that this has happened to me in the wake of this experience.”

You mentioned the J.G. Taylor Spink Award. Had you thought about it much before this happened?

“The only reason that I’ve ever thought about it is that people sometimes bring it up to me. My friends in the Philadelphia chapter of the Baseball Writers’ Association have told me that they were going to do everything they could to help me win that award. Because of that, I’ve thought about it, but I don’t think it’s the kind of thing you go around giving campaign speeches for. As I said, I’m not all caught up in myself. Whatever nice things people want to say and do for me, I’m incredibly grateful for every one of them. I’ve been to Cooperstown. I’ve been through that gallery many times. I’ve looked at the names of the people who have won the Spink Award. So many of them were friends and heroes and inspirations. I know what that means when people start saying that about you. But I don’t spend a lot of time thinking about whether I belong there. It’s not for me to decide. It’s really cool that all of a sudden, a lot of people think that I do.”

I’d like to talk to you about some of the busiest times of the year. Can you compare and contrast covering the July trade deadline and the three-to-four day period during the Winter Meetings where you’re constantly on the chase?

“The trade deadline is more grueling because it goes on and on and on and on. We now live in a world where you get to April 23rd, and team ‘X’ gets off to a 2-10 start – and people are already starting to talk about who they’re going to trade in July.

“But the Winter Meetings are just three days and nights of no sleep or surely not enough sleep. It’s this incredible group dynamic where the entire national media delegation and all of the sport is centered on the same place where – every year – we break the all-time record for most tweets per second in an area of a hundred square yards. It’s just one crazy event.

“They’re so different. At the Winter Meetings, you see a lot of people and that part of it is really enjoyable. You connect with a lot of people. If a day goes by in the Winter Meetings and I didn’t meet somebody I didn’t know or have a conversation with somebody I never get to talk to, then that was a lost day. There is that aspect to the Winter Meetings which just doesn’t exist in July.

“July is just a giant rumor-chasing Olympiad. I don’t know which gets more out of hand. I’m going to vote for the trading deadline, but in both of them, I feel like more than ever, there is a need to remind yourself every day that your goal is never to tweet something that says ‘Disregard previous tweet.’

“You can get really swept up in the rumor of the day and feel the need to jump in. To me, it’s as important as it ever has been – maybe more – to make sure that you tweet and report and write and say stuff that you know. If you don’t know it, don’t fake it. If you kind of know it, there may be a lot of people in the business these days who think they kind of know something because one person told them something. Depending on what it is, that’s not enough for me.”

In the old days, you needed two sources before you would run with something. I know that’s not the world anymore, so do you find yourself chasing down rumors half the time to see if they have any legs?

“There’s a lot of that that goes on. When you get to that time of year, you hear stuff all day long. For me, depending on what I hear and who I hear it from and what the ramifications of it may be, I might take two days chasing something down that someone else would’ve tweeted immediately. But that’s me … I’d rather be that person. A lot of people in front offices have told me that they appreciate that. There’s value in it still, even if maybe you’re not going to be first by 30 seconds. It’s never been more important than it is now to be right.”

You’re a big relationships guy. Would it be fair to say that’s probably what drives you as much as anything?

“Oh, there’s no doubt about it. I’ve thought for a long time that the most important part of what we do is to build relationships.

“Here’s a trade deadline story for you. I really don’t know what year this was, but I was working from home, working the phones. Now, seven o’clock rolls around and it gets harder to make phone calls because games are starting. I go downstairs and I’m sitting with my daughter watching baseball. Now, it gets to be right around 10; games are starting to end and my cell phone rings. It’s a guy who was a very good source of mine and somebody that I really liked and trusted. He said there was a three-team trade brewing and he didn’t know all the specifics, and he told me what team was in the middle orchestrating it – and why – and that they were calling around trying to find a third team to complete what would’ve been a really big deal. I have this little conversation with him and my daughter’s sitting next to me.

“Now, I hang up with him and she’s looking at me. She says, ‘Dad, why do people tell you stuff?’ I thought this was the greatest question ever asked of a reporter. What I told her was, ‘I’ve spent my career building relationships with people in baseball. When you do that and then you get a call like that, a couple things are going on. It’s not just about the information. It’s his way of saying he trusts me, and he knows that if he tells me this, I’m going to handle it accurately. I’m not going to burn our relationship, and maybe I’m going to unearth some information that’s going to help his team. That part is usually unsaid, but it’s really a reflection of the fact that he trusts me.

“But, it’s also a reflection of the fact that I trust him – and that when he tells me something, we’ve spent enough time talking over the years and building the relationship that we have that I know it’s true. He’s not sending me off on some wild goose chase for his own amusement. It’s not something that he heard 75th-hand that he thought was kind of fun. It’s real. We’ve built that mutual trust, and that’s how this reporting gets done if you build relationships.

“Along those lines, I build relationships with players who I find to be smart and personable and – Chuck, you know there’s one other thing: Funny! I’ve always gravitated to the funniest player in the locker room. Always. I still do that. I get to the postseason, and that team that gets to the World Series … there’s going to be some guy who barely plays – maybe he never plays – and I might quote him every single day because he’s smart and he’s funny and he puts things in perspective. My editors have always laughed at my ability to go pump the Mark DeRosa’s of the world for information. The Giants win the World Series, and Mark DeRosa is not even on the active roster, but he’s still hanging around. He’s still part of the team. He’s still in the clubhouse. So sure, I’ll go talk to him. Why wouldn’t I, right? There’s always guys like that on every team.

“The Royals are in the World Series. Raul Ibanez and Jonny Gomes are in the clubhouse. They’re not even on the roster, but they can talk. They’re smart. They’re hilarious. Why wouldn’t I go talk to them? There’s a lot of ways to tell stories, so why not use the perspective of players like that to help tell those stories? I’ve built a lot of those relationships with players for a long period of time now – and it’s awesome.”

I was going to ask you about some of your favorite people to cover, but you just answered that. Sticking with building relationships, though, you do that with baseball fans, too. That’s got to be a really cool feeling – tweeting out a trivia question and getting thousands of people responding to you.

“It’s amazing, right? I really never set out to become the Alex Trebek of baseball. That just happened by accident.

“Here’s the story of how the Mike & Mike trivia came about. There were certain weeks that there was stuff I wanted to talk about, stuff that I’d written that I wanted to make sure they’d seen. So I’d make sure to send them those ideas or pieces. Well, you probably remember that when I’d write a Rumblings and Grumblings column, I’d always slip a trivia question in there. So one week, I sent them that week’s Rumblings and Grumblings and they saw the trivia question. They said, ‘Hey, this would be fun. Why don’t we try to answer your trivia question?’ They did, and they got it wrong.

“After the show, the producer got on the phone and said, ‘Hey, we have to do this again next week.’ We wound up doing it for 12 years. That’s how the whole Stark trivia thing became a thing. Even though I used to ask trivia questions in columns for years, it just became a thing. Now, even though I’m no longer on Mike & Mike, people are still begging me for trivia. I’ve been throwing trivia questions out there from time to time on Twitter, just because it’s fun and people go crazy over those questions. I even have players tell me they look forward to those questions – like relievers, for example; they take my trivia question, they go out to the bullpen that night and they ask all the other relievers. It really is a way of connecting with people who love baseball as much as I do. That’s my favorite thing about it. That’s one of the best things about social media; it’s just so interactive.

“I have always connected with people who are fans who just love the game, and I’ve developed such amazing friendships and relationships with people like David Vincent, ‘The Sultan of Swat Stats.’ I discovered David because I was interested in home run numbers, and he had every home run ever hit on his computer. I would just pester him with all kinds of questions and I helped to make him famous. He never got one penny for looking up a thousand notes for me, and he loved it. I just met a lot of people like that. There’s a guy named Trent McCotter who keeps track of all kinds of streaks. If there’s a great streak in progress, he’s going to hear from me. There are so many cool people like that out there in the world who love to look up stuff.

“A couple weeks ago, the Orioles and the Tigers played a game where the Orioles blew a six-run lead in regulation. Then they had a three-run lead in extra innings and blew that. And they still won. My poor wife has to listen to me say stuff like, ‘I bet you there’s never been a team in history that won a game like that.’ Obviously, she can’t tell me if that’s true, but the next day, I wake up and I try to figure this out for myself and realize that I can’t. So I threw it out there on social media, and I had four different people write computer programs to look this up – and determine that in the live ball era, no team had ever done that and still won a game. And I just love the fact that we live in a world where there are people out there who don’t get paid to watch baseball or work in baseball, but they love it.

“I’d like to think that there hasn’t been anybody covering baseball in my time who has appreciated those folks as much as me and has given them their 15 seconds of fame. I’ve always used their names in my columns when they look up stuff, thank them for the idea, and make them famous. I am still running into people who say, ‘10 years ago, I sent you a note and you put my name in your column.’ It’s cool. I appreciate how many people love baseball. Why not tap into that energy and have as much fun with it as they’re having? That’s what I do.”

It sounds like that’s one of the things that make you tick, all that interaction.

“It’s great, man. That’s the most fun thing about our job. We wouldn’t have this job if people didn’t care about baseball the way they do. The best part about covering sports, writing about sports, certainly writing about this game is that human beings play these games and human beings watch these games. When you get right down to it, most of these stories are great stories about life. They’re just told through the prism of a sporting event or a career or a season. We should never get tired of telling those stories, and we should never forget that.”

If you could go back in time, who would you have liked to have seen play?

“I’d like to go back and see if Babe Ruth really called that home run. I would like to go back and watch Ted Williams hit on the last day of the 1941 season. I would love to have seen Sandy Koufax pitch in person and see what that was all about. I would love to not just talk to Ted Williams – but have a relationship with Ted Williams where he actually trusted me and I could really tap into that brain of his.

“Maybe my favorite baseball book ever written was Leigh Montville’s Ted Williams biography. I’m just fascinated by that guy. There’s a story in that book – I’ve told it a lot of times; I told it on TV once – about a blind man who had a season ticket to the Red Sox. He loved to go to Fenway Park and hear Ted Williams hit because when he came to bat, there was this little ripple through the crowd. When the ball hit his bat, there was a different sound than all the other balls hitting bats.

“There’s something about people like that that fascinates me. Ted Williams and Babe Ruth were bigger than baseball. There was something going on there that went way beyond the ability to hit a baseball. Babe Ruth was just the biggest character in American life in his time. Ted Williams’ brain had so many things running through it that other people hadn’t thought of, and I would love to have spent a day with that guy just learning all the stuff he knew and what he thinks about.”

Thank you very much for taking the time to speak with me for MLB Trade Rumors. It’s the rumors and the trade deadline and the work writers like you do that make this site what it is.

“That’s really true. Actually, I once wrote a piece – I think it was for the World Series program – about the trade deadline and how it had changed over the years. I talked to Tim Dierkes about it, because his tale and the tale of this site, they’re like a movie. It’s just incredible. If you were to talk about how the industry has changed, the MLB Trade Rumors saga and the MLB Trade Rumors effect would almost sum it up.”

– – –

Chuck Wasserstrom spent 25 years in the Chicago Cubs’ front office – 16 in Media Relations and nine in Baseball Operations. Now a freelance writer, his behind-the-scenes stories of his time in a big league front office can be found on www.chuckblogerstrom.com.

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Inside The Draft Room: The 2002-2003 Dodgers

By Chuck Wasserstrom | June 6, 2017 at 10:02am CDT

All Logan White could do was laugh when I shared my story.

The 2008 Cubs – the winningest team in the National League that season at 97-64 – were taking on the 84-78 Dodgers in the Division Series. At the time, I was a member of the Cubs’ Baseball Operations department.

It was expected to be a quick series, and it was – for Los Angeles. Sure, Manny Ramirez had a thing or two to do with the Dodgers’ three-game sweep, but the big blow in Game 1 was a James Loney grand slam. For good measure, Russell Martin also went deep later in the contest. In Game 2, Chad Billingsley stifled Cubs bats, allowing one run in 6.2 innings while fanning seven. In Game 3, Jonathan Broxton had his third scoreless appearance of the NLDS in picking up the save and completing the sweep.

“That was a lot of fun,” said White, who is now in his third year with the Padres after spending 13 years up the coast in Los Angeles. In his first two Dodgers drafts in 2002 and 2003, White’s combined haul included Loney, Martin, Billingsley, Broxton, Matt Kemp and A.J. Ellis, along with nine others who spent time in the Majors. “What wasn’t fun is we could never get to the big dance. And you know how hard that is, obviously. It’s tough to get to the big game, and that was my only regret when I was in L.A. – never getting to the World Series.

“That’s what keeps us going. That’s what we’re trying to do in San Diego now. We’re trying to rebuild the farm and everything. Hopefully, at some point, we’ll have some young players like you saw in those Dodgers days.”

– – –

Going back to the early years of the draft – heck, you can really go back to their Brooklyn days and Branch Rickey – the Dodgers have had a reputation for player development and scouting.

Baseball America still calls the Dodgers’ class of 1968 “the best in draft annals,” as the team selected Ron Cey, Steve Garvey, Davey Lopes, Bill Buckner, Doyle Alexander, Geoff Zahn, Joe Ferguson, Tom Paciorek and Bobby Valentine.

But after years of draft success, Los Angeles then had a dry spell. While the 1993 draft brought a couple solid longtime Dodgers in Darren Dreifort and Paul Lo Duca, there was very little cause to pat themselves on the back from 1994-2001. Granted, there were a few solid hits – Paul Konerko (1994), Ted Lilly (1996) and Shane Victorino (1999) – but those three made their biggest impact with other organizations.

In November 2001, the Dodgers turned to Logan White to return their scouting department to its glory days.

A former relief pitcher in Seattle’s farm system, White began his scouting career in 1988 as an associate scout with the Mariners. He had stints as the West Coast supervisor for San Diego (1993-1995) and Baltimore (1996-2001) en route to Los Angeles.

Upon joining the Dodgers’ organization, White brought with him a very high school-centric draft philosophy.

“I think my approach developed from watching others,” he said. “Having been around Don Welke – who was a mentor of mine and worked for Toronto for a long time, and being around Pat Gillick, and in watching the Atlanta Braves during that period of time … when you look at them, they drafted a lot of high-ceiling players and high school players. What I found out was … if you’re picking in the top 10 of the draft, there’s a lot of good scouts and evaluators out there, so teams generally will take the good college player up there.

“We were picking 19th in 2002 and 24th in 2003. My research showed that you’d better know the high school player there because the quality college players that everyone knows have already been taken. Now, there are exceptions to that rule, of course. Mike Mussina went 20th for the Orioles when I was there (in 1990), that type of thing. But there was some philosophy behind it; I didn’t look at it as analytics at the time, but I did research on it.

“The other thing … there was a dynamic that happened in 2002 and 2003. That was the beginning of the ‘Moneyball’ years where teams – it wasn’t just Oakland – were drafting heavily from college. That was their philosophy and a lot of teams did well at it. So maybe 10 or 15 of them weren’t drafting from the high school pool. It just left a bigger pool of talent for us at the high school level in those years. So it was kind of by design and by circumstance, if that makes sense.

“At the same time, we were just trying to draft the best available player who we thought had the highest ceiling. For example, let’s say there would be a college player we liked. We mixed our high school and college players together on the draft board. The college player would be pushed down a little further. Well, now you take another team and they’re only ranking college players. The college player gets ranked higher on their board. Say there’s a college player we would have liked to take in round three. But shoot, he went in round two or at the end of the first round to one of the teams selecting only from the college pool.

“It left us more high school players. It’s really how the draft fell because we liked a number of college guys. Heck, we liked Nick Swisher, but Swisher went before we picked.”

Swisher, who had attended Ohio State, was taken at No. 16 in the 2002 draft by Oakland.

“That’s kind of how those drafts unfolded,” White said. “But we did focus on the high school player. That was definitely by design.”

The 2002 and 2003 drafts were very different for the Dodgers in terms of volume of picks – in ’02, the team gained two additional selections as compensation for the loss of free agent Chan Ho Park to Texas; in ’03, the club only had one pick in the top 60 – but not in terms of a common theme. In his first year as a scouting director, White didn’t select a four-year college player until his ninth pick. In his second year, his first eight picks – and 13 of his first 15 – were high school players.Read more

2002 … the famous “Moneyball” draft.

While Oakland’s draft was covered in-depth in Michael Lewis’ book, White was in the process of telling a story of his own, focusing on a bunch of high school kids.

“It was my first year, and I went to a college baseball tournament at Minute Maid Park,” White recalled. “While I was in Houston, there was a high school game going on and my area scout, Chris Smith, said, ‘There’s a good matchup. You can see two pitchers and a first baseman named James Loney play.’ I went out to the high school and you had Scott Kazmir and Clint Everts pitch. And they all ended up being first-round picks.”

Loney played for Lawrence E. Elkins High School in the Houston suburb of Missouri City. His high school team was facing Cypress Falls High School, which featured Everts (who was selected fifth overall by the Expos) and Kazmir (selected 15th by the Mets).

“James faced them both that day,” White said, “and he hit a home run to left-center off Everts. And he also pitched that day. James was actually touted as a pitcher. He was supposed to be a high draft pick as a pitcher but he swung the bat extremely well. I talked to Chris Smith about him. I’m like, ‘Man, this guy can really swing the bat. I love his swing.’ And I told him to keep an eye on him. Don’t forget him as a hitter even though he was better known as a left-handed pitcher. As the year went on, he was always in the back of my head. We kept checking on him.

“Gib Bodet, our national cross-checker, later went in to see him. He called me and said, ‘Hey Logan, this Loney kid has a chance to be a Gold Glove defender.’ He loved his defense. So we just kept doing our work. Chris and I remember being at a game later in the year and James wasn’t pitching; he was only hitting, and there were no other scouts there. When James was pitching there’d be 30 scouts or whatever. We knew we were probably one of the few teams on him as a hitter.

“There were players we had high on our board. We loved Zack Greinke. We loved Prince Fielder. Like I mentioned, we loved Swisher. But we knew as the draft was going to unfold, those guys were going to get taken ahead of us.

“The one player we were hoping would get to us was Cole Hamels.”

Hamels, a high school left-hander out of San Diego, had fractured his humerus – the bone between the shoulder and the elbow – after his sophomore season. There were medical concerns about him, so White asked for and obtained clearance from Dr. Frank Jobe and from club ownership.

The hope was that there were enough concerns industry-wide to allow Hamels to drop all the way to Dodgers.

“We were hoping Hamels would get to us at 19, and then we could take James at 31 because we had that sandwich pick. That was our strategy, but of course, the Phillies took Hamels at 17,” White said. “So we went with our next plan, moving James up to 19. And then we took Greg Miller, who was a left-handed pitcher who had really good years before he, unfortunately, got hurt. He could have been as good as any of them at 31.”

In taking Loney with their first pick, the Dodgers took him ahead of Denard Span (No. 20 to Minnesota), Jeremy Guthrie (No. 22 to Cleveland), Joe Blanton (No. 24 to Oakland) and Matt Cain (No. 25 to San Francisco).

“That range actually was pretty good from about 15 to 25,” White said. “I remember being asked by writers on the conference call when we took James, ‘You know, Logan, you took James Loney with your first pick at 19. He’s ranked by Baseball America on their list at like, number 56 as a left-handed pitcher.’ I said, ‘No disrespect to anybody, but I only paid attention to our list.’ I was so naïve my first year, and I didn’t even think much about the question. Fortunately, James has had a good career. I would have loved for him to have hit 30 homers and been an All-Star every year, but I’m still proud of him.”

Miller might have softened the blow of missing out on the opportunity to pick Hamels, had Miller been able to stay healthy. As an 18-year-old in 2003, the graduate of Esperanza High School in Anaheim was on the fast track, combining to go 12-5 with a 2.21 ERA at High-A Vero Beach and Double-A Jacksonville. The following year, he missed the entire campaign with shoulder issues, and was never the same.

“He was throwing 95 with a great breaking ball and he was a 6-foot-6 lefty,” White said. “He certainly had as high of a ceiling as any of them. It’s just a shame he got hurt. His stuff was electric, it really was.”

In the second round, White had a pair of selections, choosing Iowa City High School right-hander Zach Hammes at No. 51 and Jonathan Broxton, a right-hander out of Burke County High School in Waynesboro, Ga., at No. 60.

One of those two worked out, as Broxton has pitched in nearly 700 major league games. Hammes pitched until 2013, but only saw brief Triple-A action.

Still, White kicks himself, as Jon Lester wasn’t selected by Boston until No. 57, and Brian McCann wasn’t picked by Atlanta until No. 64.

“If I was so smart … McCann, I should’ve taken him right there,” White said. “Obviously, we took Hammes. He was a tall projection pitcher out of Iowa. Our scouts liked him and we thought we were going to get a good one there, but we just didn’t.

“I will tell you with Lester … I learned a lesson. I saw Lester match up against Adam Loewen [who went fourth overall to the Orioles] in the fall of their senior years, and it was a great matchup. Lester threw outstanding. Well, then I went and saw Lester in the spring and his fastball was down. He was 87-89 and did not have the same stuff he showed in the fall. I learned my lesson — I should have gone with what I first saw and with my instincts, and instead, I didn’t do that. I obviously regret missing a big player, a big pitcher, right there.

“Lester and McCann … those bother me because we certainly liked both of those players – but obviously, we didn’t like them as well as the teams that got them.”

Broxton, who is now in his 13th big league season, has appeared in more games than any other pitcher selected in the ’02 draft. Before departing the Dodgers as a free agent after the 2011 season, he went to two All-Star games and made 13 playoff appearances.

“Lon Joyce, our area scout in Georgia, did a really good job on him,” White said. “Broxton was a big, thick guy throwing 90-93. Good slider, good breaking ball and just had a really good delivery for a big guy. And he was athletic. I remember him having to cover first and make a play and he moved well for his size. I just loved the arm and everything.

“Right before the draft there was a Georgia All-Star game, and Lon called me and said, ‘Hey, Logan, I’m at this game and Broxton is throwing 95-96.’ And back then, 95-96 was probably like 97-98 nowadays because the guns were not as sophisticated. But that definitely helped that he saw him right before the draft. We loved the delivery and loved his size. It fit everything we were looking for in him.”

White hit on several other players who had some decent big-league time – fourth-rounder Delwyn Young out of Santa Barbara (Calif.) City College, 11th-rounder James McDonald out of Polytechnic High School in Long Beach, Calif., and 15th-rounder Eric Stults out of Bethel College in Mishawaka, Ind.

But the player who would go on to have the biggest impact – Russell Martin – was a second baseman selected in the 17th round out of Chipola College in Marianna, Fla.

“When I went to L.A., I did have a philosophy of, ‘We’re going to look for guys that we can convert to catch,’ because I’ve always felt catching is hard to find,” White said. “It all goes back to being an area scout in Arizona. I remember going in to watch Arizona Western Junior College play.

“They had this shortstop and I liked him. I’m going, ‘Man, this guy can hit a little bit. He can throw, but he’s kind of heavy.’ He was a chunky guy and he didn’t run that well, and he was playing shortstop in junior college. I was a first-year scout, and I started comparing him to the Derek Jeters, the Alex Rodriguezes; I knew this guy couldn’t play short in the big leagues. I didn’t know where he was going to play, but I knew I liked something about him. Well, I didn’t write him up. I didn’t do anything with him. Nobody drafts him.

“Fast forward three or four years later, and I hear this guy’s name again. Somebody signed him after the fact; they worked him out and made him a catcher. And you know who it was? It was Bengie Molina. At the time, I didn’t have the mindset to take a player like that and put him behind the plate. I hadn’t acquired that skill of scouting yet.

“Now, when I get to L.A., I have a little more experience under my belt, and I wanted the scouts to look for guys we could convert to catch. I asked one of my big questions, ‘Is there anybody that’s playing second or short, third, good feet, good hands, we can convert?’ The area scout was Clarence Johns and the East Coast supervisor was John Barr, who’s now with the Giants as their scouting director. They both were at a game and Russ was messing around in the outfield or the bullpen, catching somebody. Just playing, not really in gear or anything. And they said, ‘Hey, you know what? We think this guy would be perfect.’

“So we intentionally drafted him to convert him. The rest is history.”

Martin, a four-time All-Star, is closing in on 1,400 games behind the plate for his big-league career.

“It was by design; we were trying to get guys like that,” White said. “Now we could say we were lucky we got him in the 17th round, of course. But there was a lot of work that had to go into it because I know our catching people had to do a lot of work that helped Russ become the catcher he became.”

– – –

Fast forward 12 months to June of 2003.

Thanks to a 92-70 record during the 2002 campaign, the Dodgers found themselves selecting in the 24th slot of the draft.

Looking back, it wasn’t a great draft. Three of the top six picks didn’t reach the Majors. The projected studs of the class, Delmon Young and Rickie Weeks, didn’t put up the numbers expected of them.

Throughout the spring scouting season, though, White had his eye on Chad Billingsley, a high school right-hander out of Defiance, Ohio.

“Well, that year … it wasn’t like the year before when there were a lot of guys you’d have been happy with it,” White said. “We saw Chad really early. And you know the thing about Chad … he was the ace of the Junior Olympic team. Those are things that were always important to me, kids that have played and had success wherever they’d been.

“Chad had such a good arm and a good delivery. He was throwing 94-95 with a plus breaking ball, plus changeup. He had a feel for pitching. He was a pretty good athlete for a high school kid. And we honestly were on Chad right away from the get-go. I’m trying to remember if we had anybody else that we liked better than Chad. I don’t remember off the top of my head; it was not like the way we hoped Hamels would get to us. Chad was pretty much a guy we were going to take at 24; I penciled him in and he was going to be our guy. I had all our people see him. As a matter of fact, I even had Dave Wallace – at the time he was our roving pitching coordinator – go see him for us because I just knew I liked him so much.

“And I think the thing that helped us, too, was he’s a high school right-handed pitcher. The industry gets a little afraid of high school right-handed pitchers, rightly so. A lot don’t make it.”

Billingsley was the first of eight consecutive high school players White selected in 2003. Of those eight, five reached the majors, including fourth-rounder Xavier Paul out of Slidell, La., seventh-rounder Wesley Wright out of Goshen, Ala., and eighth-rounder Lucas May out of Parkway West High School in Ballwin, Mo.

And then there was the sixth-round pick – outfielder Matt Kemp, better known as a basketball player than for his baseball exploits at Midwest City (Okla.) High School. Kemp was the shooting guard on two state championship teams, where he was teammates with Shelden Williams, the fifth pick in the 2006 NBA draft.

“We loved Matt,” White said. “Matt was getting recruited to play basketball by big schools and didn’t play baseball on the circuit. He wasn’t seen in the summers a lot. Honestly, we were really lucky on Matt in that regard.

“My area scout, Mike Leuzinger, took me to see a pitcher on Matt’s team that got drafted [Brent Weaver, the Brewers’ second-round pick]. Matt’s playing right field, and I asked Mike about him. He said, ‘That’s Matt Kemp. He’s a basketball player.’ And he went 0-for-3.

“A bunch of people were in to see the pitcher. They leave, and then I say, ‘We’re going to stick around for the second game.’ I wanted to see Matt play again. He went 1-for-3, then Mike and I asked the coach if he’d let Matt hit some more. So we went and saw Matt hit at the high school.

“And what’s funny, I told Matt, ‘Now do not tell anybody that I’ve been in here. Don’t tell them you met me. Don’t tell them you’ve seen me. Don’t mention my name to anybody, please.’ This is how literally he took that; he didn’t even tell his Mom or Dad. They always kid me about that, ‘We didn’t even know the Dodgers were on him because he didn’t tell us.’ We knew strategy-wise we needed to try to be smart. Mike did a great job; he told me, ‘Logan, nobody’s going to take him until the eighth, ninth, 10th round. Nobody sees him as that kind of guy.’ We had him on our board in about the third or fourth round.

“We actually had him over Xavier Paul, who we took in the fourth round. Xavier was going to Tulane, but I knew I might be able to sign him if we took him in the fourth. But if I took Matt in the fourth and Xavier in the sixth, I probably would just be able to sign Matt. So that became part of our strategy in how we drafted them. That’s where Mike did a great job. And that’s an important part of scouting – to get a feel for where you have to take a player. It helps you maximize your draft.

“Mike did a good job of knowing we didn’t have to take Matt there, so it allowed us to take Matt in the sixth round. I didn’t want to let him fall too far because it’s dangerous trying that. When you look back you might even say it was stupid to wait that long; somebody could’ve taken him.”

Kemp, a two-time All-Star, two-time Gold Glove Award winner and two-time Silver Slugger, looks like a player with his athletic build. Playing in front of a bunch of scouts because his high school team included a highly rated pitcher, it’s amazing that he fell to the 181st slot.

“I honestly don’t know the reason for that,” White said. “I do think the fact that people thought he would play basketball, and he wasn’t seen a lot, and it’s one of those … I don’t know. I wish I knew the answer to what other teams are thinking.”

Once the draft moved into the late teens, White again landed a catcher who would go on to see significant time in the majors with 18th-rounder A.J. Ellis, a backstop out of Austin Peay University. This time, White was actually looking for someone who had caught before.

While not a star in the same category as Russell Martin, Ellis is now in his 10th big league season and was a member of the Dodgers’ organization from draft day 2003 until an August 2016 trade to Philadelphia.

“If you look at my drafts historically, I’m kind of superstitious,” White said. “I don’t know why I got superstitious about that. I guess because of Martin. But I always try to target a catcher there.

“I have to give credit to Marty Lamb, the area scout. What we were targeting that year … we were honestly trying to get a catcher who was older, who had some leadership qualities, those kind of things – because we did have a young pitching corps that we had drafted in back-to-back years. We had just drafted Broxton and all those guys and then we had Billingsley and those guys. Russ was just learning to catch. So we had a need for a guy that was a little more polished to catch our young guys.

“I had a really good feel for A.J. based on how Marty felt about him, and the way he’s turned out is exactly what Marty described. Great person. Quality leader. Not going to wow you when you first see him. We were fortunate that we got him in the 18th round.”

– – –

During his tenure in Los Angeles, more than 50 of White’s draft selections reached the major leagues. Some turned out to be better than others. (He did pick some guy named Clayton Kershaw, for instance.) Most came from the high school ranks.

His time in L.A. was reminiscent of the Dodger Way of scouting and developing players.

“That 2002 draft, and again in 2003, we felt really good when we left the draft room,” White said. “And sometimes when you feel good leaving the draft room, your instincts are usually right.

“Those two years, what I’m just as proud of – and this may sound stupid, but I’m really proud of it – I think our scouts did great work after the draft as well. There’s actually three players that don’t show up on those lists. We signed a fifth-year senior out of Maryland named Steve Schmoll, who got to the big leagues and contributed.

“After the 2002 draft, Hank Jones, our scout in the Northwest, signed a pitcher out of Portland named Eric Hull who got in a little big league time. And then the next year, we signed a player named Jamie Hoffman – who Jeff Schugel saw in the American Legion Tournament in Minnesota, I want to say. We signed Jamie towards the end of that summer, and he got in some time. We actually ended up with three more big leaguers than what actually showed up in the draft process.

“You try to get as many high-ceiling players as you can that are going to be quality big leaguers, and then you want to have depth. I was proud of the scouts; they kept working through the later rounds. They kept working after the draft. Those guys were out there working their tails off. It was one of our philosophies – to keep pressing before and after the draft and always be out there looking for talent.”

– – –

Chuck Wasserstrom spent 25 years in the Chicago Cubs’ front office – 16 in Media Relations and nine in Baseball Operations. Now a freelance writer, his behind-the-scenes stories of his time in a big league front office can be found on www.chuckblogerstrom.com.

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Knocking Down The Door: Adams, Blackburn, Fisher, Meadows, Therrien

By Jason Martinez | June 5, 2017 at 5:22pm CDT

This week’s installation of “Knocking Down The Door” includes two highly-touted center field prospects, a reliever who had been doing his best Kenley Jansen impression in Double-A before a recent promotion to Triple-A, and a pair of starting pitchers who can’t be too far off from making their MLB debuts after dominating in their last outings.

Chance Adams, SP, New York Yankees (Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre)

If the Yankees, one of three teams in baseball to have only used five starting pitchers this season, need to dip into their farm system for rotation help, they appear to be in good shape with Chance Adams waiting in the wings.

The 22-year-old right-hander has risen up the ladder swiftly without much of a struggle in 220 2/3 minor league innings. After posting a 1.03 ERA in six Double-A starts to begin the season, he hasn’t slowed him down one bit since a promotion to Triple-A. He recently lowered his ERA to 1.57 after tossing one-hit ball over six shutout innings with two walks and a season-high 12 strikeouts in his fourth start with Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.

There doesn’t appear to be an immediate opening in the Yankees’ rotation, although Masahiro Tanaka’s recent performance—21 earned runs and 30 hits over his last 17 2/3 innings—might be an indication that he’s not completely healthy and could use a stint on the disabled list.

Yankees Depth Chart

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Paul Blackburn, SP, Oakland Athletics (Triple-A Nashville)

Acquired from the Mariners this past offseason for Danny Valencia, Blackburn has not wasted time in impressing his new organization. After not allowing a run in three of his last four starts, including seven shutout innings on Sunday, the 23-year-old has his ERA down to 3.26 with a 2.4 BB/9 and 6.7 K/9.

With Jharel Cotton’s demotion to Triple-A last month lasting only two starts due to injuries to Kendall Graveman and Jesse Hahn, Blackburn’s emergence could afford the A’s the opportunity to get him back down to there to work on things for an extended period this time around.

Athletics Depth Chart

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Derek Fisher, OF, Houston Astros (Triple-A Fresno)

It’s clear that Fisher’s overall game needs some work—50 strikeouts in 53 games; caught stealing 10 times in 19 attempts—and the powerful Astros lineup doesn’t appear to need any help right now. But it’s hard to ignore the rest of his numbers (.338/.397/.606; 14 HR, 16 2B, 19 BB) and not wonder how much more firepower he could add to the bottom of the Astros’ lineup in place of left fielder Nori Aoki, who isn’t doing much out of the No. 9 spot (.624 OPS).

Prior to a hitless game on Sunday, the 23-year-old Fisher had been on a nine-game hitting streak in which he had a .486 batting average (18-for-37), four doubles and four homers. It would likely benefit him to continue working on his game down in Triple-A, but he could also learn on the job in a low-pressure environment while giving the Astros much more production than they’re currently getting out of left field.

Astros Depth Chart

—

Austin Meadows, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates (Triple-A Indianapolis) 

USATSI_9930441_154513410_lowres

When the Pirates were in need of an outfielder in mid-April after the 80-game suspension of Starling Marte was announced, Meadows was in a deep slump and not deserving of his first MLB call-up. With Marte’s return still more than a month away, however, it’s not too late for the Pirates to get a look at their top prospect, who has turned things around and has the potential to give a struggling team a much-needed shot in the arm.

Since posting a .503 OPS with five walks and 20 strikeouts in April, the 22-year-old has hit .302 with two homers, 12 doubles, 11 walks, 20 strikeouts and six stolen bases over his last 31 games. Adam Frazier, who is currently getting most of the starts in left field, has been one of the few bright spots for the Pirates. His ability to play multiple positions, however, makes him valuable as a super-utility man, which will be his role if Meadows gets the call.

Pirates Depth Chart

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Jesen Therrien, RP, Philadelphia Phillies (Triple-A Lehigh Valley)

Therrien is only one scoreless appearance into his first Triple-A stint, but if his numbers at Double-A are any indication—1.26 ERA, 28 2/3 innings, 14 hits, three walks, 39 strikeouts—the 24-year-old right-hander shouldn’t be far away from helping a beleaguered Phillies bullpen.

With Joaquin Benoit on the disabled list, Jeanmar Gomez demoted to the bottom of the depth chart and Edubray Ramos not having the impact the team was hoping for, the rebuilding Phillies could not only use some reinforcements, they could also start looking towards the future and finding out which young arms will be able to help them in 2018 and beyond.

Phillies Depth Chart

—

“Knocking Down the Door” is a weekly feature that identifies minor leaguers who are making a case for a big league promotion.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Athletics Houston Astros Knocking Down The Door MLBTR Originals New York Yankees Philadelphia Phillies Pittsburgh Pirates Austin Meadows Chance Adams Derek Fisher Jesen Therrien Paul Blackburn

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MLBTR Originals

By Mark Polishuk | June 4, 2017 at 5:43pm CDT

Here’s the past week’s original content from the MLB Trade Rumors writing staff…

  • As potential buyers and sellers prepare for the trade deadline, MLBTR will be previewing some potential names who could be changing uniforms on or before July 31 in our Trade Candidate series.  First up, Mark Polishuk looked at the Phillies’ Howie Kendrick and Connor Byrne examined Pirates right-hander Gerrit Cole.
  • While most of the deadline dealing will come in July, it isn’t too unusual to see a big trade swung in June.  Jeff Todd looks back at some notable June trades from the last five seasons.
  • Also from Jeff, he listed nine veteran players who are putting up big numbers after signing low-cost one-year contracts.
  • Logan Morrison is another player who took a modest contract (one year, $2.5MM) last winter and is now positioning himself for a much bigger free agent payday this coming offseason.  “LoMo” entered today’s action with 16 homers and a .243/.347/.551 slash line in 219 plate appearances for the Rays.  Jeff breaks down Morrison’s season and looks at his open market earning potential in our latest Free Agent Stock Watch piece.
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Trade Candidate: Gerrit Cole

By Connor Byrne | June 4, 2017 at 1:35pm CDT

Major league teams are always on the lookout for established, affordable pitching. That fact could make right-hander Gerrit Cole, he of the $3.75MM salary, among the most appealing players available if the Pirates shop him prior to the trade deadline.

While Cole has drawn interest, there’s no indication Pittsburgh will place him on the block in the next couple months. However, the Pirates are just 25-31 – four games behind the NL Central-leading Brewers and eight games out of a wild-card spot – so it looks likely they’ll end up selling. As such, it could behoove the Bucs to at least listen to offers for Cole, especially if they’re unconvinced they’ll be able to return to their playoff-caliber ways of 2013-15 in the near future. The Pirates’ window with Cole is running out (he’s controllable via arbitration through 2019), and as a low-payroll outfit, odds are the team won’t be able to keep the Scott Boras client from hitting free agency if it elects against trading him in the coming years.

Gerrit Cole

The problem for the Pirates, both from a contending standpoint and for Cole’s trade value, is that the 26-year-old has taken steps backward since his earlier days in the league. During his best season, 2015, Cole was a bona fide ace who notched 208 innings of 2.60 ERA ball (with a 2.66 FIP) and helped his cause with strong strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates. Cole’s ERA went up nearly a run and a half last year (3.88, with a still-impressive 3.33 FIP) as his strikeout rate sunk, but injuries may have played a part in that. Pittsburgh shut down Cole in early September after just 116 innings and multiple stints on the disabled list – one for a strained triceps and another for elbow inflammation.

Fortunately, Cole has stayed healthy this year and already amassed 71 2/3 frames, but the results haven’t been great. While Cole has continued to limit walks (2.01 per nine) and generate grounders (46 percent), he ranks middle of the pack or worse among FanGraphs’ 89 qualifying starters in ERA (4.27, 55th), FIP (4.77, 67th), K/9 (7.66, 50th) and strikeout percentage (20.3, 47th). The main culprit for Cole’s run prevention issues is a bloated home run-to-fly ball ratio (19.7 percent), up from a career 9.3 percent. With 15 homers allowed, Cole has already established a career worst and yielded eight more long balls than he did during his truncated 2016.

Cole’s history indicates he’ll positively regress in the home run department, but it’s not a sure thing if his fastball doesn’t regain its effectiveness. Although Cole sits second among starters in average sinker velocity (96.15) and third in four-seam velo (96.73), according to Baseball Prospectus, he hasn’t exactly dominated with those pitches. Back in 2015, Cole had the second-most valuable fastball among starters, per FanGraphs, but it has been the ninth-worst pitch of its kind so far this year. Hitters have posted a .947 OPS against Cole’s four-seamer and a .945 mark versus his sinker, the two pitches he has leaned on the most, while his third, fourth and fifth offerings (his slider, changeup and knuckle-curve) have yielded an OPS of .644, .645 and .697, respectively.

Left-handed hitters have been especially tough on Cole, having slashed .276/.308/.572 with 10 homers and held their own against nearly all of his pitches, primarily his four-seamer. That certainly wasn’t the case when Cole’s four-seamer stymied lefties in 2015, and heat maps courtesy of FanGraphs (click to view: 2015, 2017) indicate he’s not locating the pitch as precisely as he did then. Meanwhile, with the exception of his sinker, Cole’s repertoire has limited same-handed batters, who have hit .244/.304/.314 against him. Four of righties’ five HRs off Cole have come against his sinker, which was tough to square up during his career year. As Brooks Baseball’s heat maps show (click to view: 2015, 2017), Cole’s not coming inside against righties with his sinker to nearly the extent that he did in the past, and the pitch has too often found the middle of the plate.

In fairness to Cole, his struggles this year largely boil down to his most recent three starts, a 14 2/3-inning stretch in which he gave up a combined 16 earned runs on 28 hits and eight homers. As recently as May 21, Cole was running a sub-3.00 ERA, and eight of his first nine outings were quality starts. If that version of Cole resurfaces and the Pirates do shop him by the end of July, they’d be within reason to request a prospect bounty in return. On the other hand, should the Cole who has shown up over the past two weeks stick around, Pittsburgh might be better served to keep the fifth-year man through season’s end and market him over the winter or during the 2018 campaign. After all, if Cole’s woes against opposite-handed batters continue, starter-needy contenders like the Astros, Yankees and Rockies – all of whom play in hitter-friendly parks – may not be keen on parting with multiple high-end prospects for someone generating so-so results.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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9 Budget Free Agent Hitters Off To Strong Starts

By Jeff Todd | May 31, 2017 at 12:33pm CDT

Mining the free agent ranks for good value remains an art, with the potential for rather significant rewards. While it’s unusual for a team to find a true gem — think Justin Turner — there is quite a lot of potential for adding impact in part-time roles.

We already looked at some minor-league signees who have impacted their organizations’ bullpens. Now, let’s check in on some hitters who signed for little but have been rather useful through about two months of action:

  • Alexi Amarista, INF, Rockies — The 28-year-old has helped cover for the injured Trevor Story, and he’s doing more than just keeping the team afloat. Through 69 trips to the plate, he’s hitting .338/.348/.515. There’s obviously quite a lot of room for regression baked in — Amarista has drawn just one walk and carries a .412 BABIP — but he’s been a big help for the emerging Rockies team at the meager cost of $1.25MM.
  • Daniel Descalso, INF, Diamondbacks — After Colorado let the utilityman go over the winter, Descalso landed only $1.5MM despite a solid 2016 season. That has worked out just fine for Arizona, which has received 92 plate appearances of .218/.337/.410 hitting from the veteran, who is walking at a 13.0% clip and succeeding despite a .250 BABIP.
  • Chris Iannetta, C, Diamondbacks — Also earning a meager $1.5MM, Iannetta has helped the DBacks feel better about the decision to allow Welington Castillo to walk. Though the typically patient Iannetta is walking at about half of his career rate, he’s driving the ball like never before. Over eighty plate appearances, Iannetta has smacked six long balls and owns a .288 isolated slugging mark.
  • Franklin Gutierrez, OF, Dodgers — Taking home a modest $2.6MM salary, Gutierrez has been quite productive when healthy. While Los Angeles will only ask him to play a limited role, the team will be thrilled if he can keep producing at a .257/.350/.429 rate the rest of the way.
  • Austin Jackson, OF, Indians — After settling for a minor-league deal over the winter, Jackson came with low expectations. But he made the Opening Day roster and owns a .273/.327/.523 batting line that points back to his days as one of the game’s more promising young players.
  • Adam Lind, 1B, Nationals — Lind languished on the market along with a variety of other sluggers, eventually scoring just $1.5MM to function as a lefty complement to Ryan Zimmerman at first base. While the Nats have received plenty of production from Zimmerman, the team is also enjoying Lind’s robust output off the bench. He owns a .340/.400/.604 slash over sixty plate appearances, with as many walks as strikeouts (10.0% apiece).
  • Mark Reynolds, 1B, Rockies — Expected to land on the bench after returning to Colorado on a minors deal, Reynolds was thrown into a more significant role when Ian Desmond opened the year on the DL. He has responded with outstanding production: .313/.388/.555 with 13 home runs in 206 plate appearances.
  • Kurt Suzuki, C, Braves — At just $1.5MM, Suzuki has been quite the bargain. He’s outhitting most of the league’s catchers in his 88 plate appearances, with a .257/.379/.457 slash. Interestingly, Suzuki is walking 11.4% of the time — nearly double his typical levels — while also hitting for good power (.200 ISO).
  • Chase Utley, INF, Dodgers — The former star took home just $2MM in exchange for his services this year, and seemed ready to take a smaller role on the Dodgers’ bench. After a slow start, though, he has begun to deliver. 125 plate appearances into the season, he’s batting .252/.347/.430 with three dingers and three steals — the type of production not seen since back in 2013, when he was still with the Phillies.
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Arizona Diamondbacks Atlanta Braves Cleveland Guardians Colorado Rockies Los Angeles Dodgers MLBTR Originals Philadelphia Phillies Washington Nationals Adam Lind Alexi Amarista Austin Jackson Chase Utley Chris Iannetta Daniel Descalso Franklin Gutierrez Kurt Suzuki Mark Reynolds

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Free Agent Stock Watch: Logan Morrison

By Jeff Todd | May 31, 2017 at 10:39am CDT

As with several other players profiled in this series, Logan Morrison of the Rays is worth watching both as a pending free agent and as a potential trade piece. While Tampa Bay is currently one game over .500, a dip in the standings could leave Morrison and others on the block.

May 8, 2017; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Rays first baseman Logan Morrison (7) at Tropicana Field. Kansas City Royals defeated the Tampa Bay Rays 7-3. Kansas City Royals defeated the Tampa Bay Rays 7-3. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Regardless of his trade availability, LoMo is an interesting player to watch from a hot stove perspective. While Yonder Alonso has garnered more attention — we profiled him recently right here — Morrison has been quite impressive in his own right.

On the heels of a middling 2016 season for both team and player, the Rays gave Morrison $2.5MM on a one-year deal over the winter. That decision has been rewarded quite handsomely through two months of the season.

Morrison, 29, has already matched his home run tally (14) from a season ago in just over half the plate appearances. Through 206 trips to the dish, he’s slashing .241/.345/.534 — despite carrying only a .243 batting average on balls in play.

There’s more to like here than just the pop, though Morrison’s .293 isolated slugging mark is plenty impressive. While continuing to swing and miss more frequently than he had before arriving in Tampa Bay (23.3% on the season), that aggression has obviously paid off in the results. Importantly, too, Morrison is drawing walks at an impressive 13.6% clip.

If he can maintain that boost in the walk department while his BABIP creeps back toward the mean, Morrison might keep up his overall productivity with the bat even if he doesn’t maintain his current home run pace. His 23.7% HR/FB rate is nearly double his career average, and seems likely to regress somewhat. That said, there are signs that the jump in power may be real in its own right. Morrison is hitting fly balls much more frequently than ever before (45.7%), carries a hefty average launch angle (17.28 degrees), and has shown huge strides in his hard-hit rate (42.6%).

So, it seems that Morrison may be taking part in the flyball revolution that is spreading around the game. It’ll be interesting, though, to see what that means for his market — in trade this summer, potentially, and in free agency over the winter.

There are, after all, plenty of other defensively limited sluggers who are making similar strides. And the 2017-18 free agent market seems increasingly like to be chock full of power bats. In addition to Alonso, left-handed-hitting first basemen that will be available include Eric Hosmer, Lucas Duda, Mitch Moreland, Adam Lind, and the switch-hitting Carlos Santana. They’ll also be competing with righty corner infielders such as Todd Frazier, Mike Napoli, Mark Reynolds, and Chris Carter — not to mention outfield/DH candidates like J.D. Martinez, Carlos Gonzalez, Jay Bruce, Matt Holliday, and possibly Justin Upton.

That’s quite a lot of thump. As was the case last year, the sheer volume of power bats could work to the disadvantage of all — and, perhaps, to the benefit of those teams that play the market well. Beyond that, there’s still quite a lot left for Morrison to show over the rest of the year. He has been quite good against lefties this year, but has struggled historically. And though he’s drawing average reviews for his glovework in 2017, his deeper history suggests he’s a slightly below-average fielder. And most generally, while Morrison has had productive seasons in the past, he has also had his share of duds and has never maintained this kind of output for an entire campaign. At this stage, though, the arrow is pointed up.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Notable Trades In The Month Of June

By Jeff Todd | May 29, 2017 at 8:40pm CDT

This post was adapted and updated from a previous post last May.

It’ll soon be June, so let’s look back at a few recent transactions in the month before primary deadline season. Most major swaps occur in July, of course, and most of those occur toward the end of the month.

The biggest “early” deadline deal of recent memory — the 2014 swap that sent Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel from the Cubs to the Athletics in exchange for Addison Russell, Billy McKinney, and Dan Straily — didn’t go through until the 4th of July. Likewise, the equally important deal from the year prior — in which the Cubs nabbed Jake Arrieta and Pedro Strop from the Orioles for Scott Feldman and Steve Clevenger — was reached on July 2nd.

But that doesn’t mean that nothing of consequence occurs in June. Those deals could easily have come a few days sooner, and baseball’s increasingly free-wheeling player market could lead to some surprises. This year, for instance, we’ve heard suggestions that the Padres could look to make an early move involving quality left-handed reliever Brad Hand.

What kinds of swaps might be anticipated over the thirty days to come? Here are some of the most notable deals that were actually completed in the month of June over the last five seasons:

2016

  • The first and most significant deal in June of 2016 is a good place to point friends when they ask, “why don’t teams make big trades earlier in the season?” With the White Sox fading after a hot start, they took a chance on struggling veteran James Shields, absorbing about $27MM of his remaining salary obligations while also sending righty Erik Johnson and young infield prospect Fernando Tatis Jr. to the Padres. Shields continued to decline, the Sox crashed, and Tatis blossomed into one of the better prospects in a loaded San Diego system. (Johnson is working back from Tommy John surgery or the deal could look even worse — and may yet.) Shields did turn in three good starts to open the 2017 season, but he’s now on the DL at 35 years of age and has plenty to show before the now-rebuilding White Sox can try to get something back.
  • In a reprisal of a deal from the prior July, the Mets picked up utilityman Kelly Johnson from the Braves. New York had a need for a veteran lefty bat capable of moving around, and Johnson fit the bill, hitting quite well and helping the Mets eke into the postseason. That came at a cost, though, as the return — relief prospect Akeel Morris — has thrown fairy well for his new organization.
  • A similar deal went down shortly thereafter, as the Cubs brought back Chris Coghlan after a brief stint with the Athletics. Like Johnson, he showed new life once back in his old uniform. Outfielder Arismendy Alcantara went to Oakland in the deal, but was later lost on waivers.
  • In a swap of former prospects who had fallen on hard times, the Dodgers added infielder Chris Taylor from the Mariners in exchange for righty Zach Lee. The immediate impact was minimal, but Taylor has broken out with 123 plate appearances of .321/.415/.557 hitting for Los Angeles in 2017. Lee, like Alcantara, was lost on the waiver wire over the ensuing offseason.
  • The Dodgers also made another trade right at June’s end, adding righty Bud Norris along with outfielder Dian Toscano from the Braves in exchange for righty Caleb Dirks and lefty Phil Pfeifer. Norris fell flat in Los Angeles in 2016, though he’s pitching well there now — albeit with the Angels. Dirks may end up being a nice pick-up for Atlanta, as he’s carrying a 2.93 ERA with 10.7 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 through 27 2/3 Triple-A innings thus far in 2017.

2015

  • The month started with an interest arrangement that saw slugger Mark Trumbo head from the D-Backs to the Mariners along with lefty Vidal Nuno. That seemed mostly motivated by salary from Arizona’s perspective, but the team has received compelling production from backstop Welington Castillo. The team also picked up righty Dominic Leone and prospects Gabby Guerrero and Jack Reinheimer from Seattle.
  • One day later, the Orioles sent veteran outfielder Alejandro De Aza to the Red Sox after designating him for assignment, receiving minor league righty Joe Gunkel in return. De Aza performed well in Boston, which took on about $1MM of his remaining salary, but couldn’t turn around a sinking ship, and was eventually passed along to the Giants.
  • Later that June, the D-Backs struck another interesting deal. In exchange for taking over about $10MM of salary obligations to injured veteran Bronson Arroyo, and sending over infielder Philip Gosselin, the Braves earned the rights to high-upside pitching prospect Touki Toussaint.

2014

  • In another agreement involving prospect assets, the Pirates got the 39th overall pick in the 2014 draft from the Marlins on June 1. Miami picked up righty Bryan Morris, who’s been a sturdy reliever who’s still controlled for two more years, while Pittsburgh ultimately turned that selection into first baseman Connor Joe, who has largely scuffled in the low minors since.
  • Later that month, the Pirates and Angels made a change-of-scenery swap that sent Jason Grilli out west in exchange for Ernesto Frieri. While Grilli provided some solid innings, Frieri faded, though both organizations ended up making the post-season.

2013

  • DFA swaps are often fruitful in the middle of the year, and the Brewers managed to land a useful piece from the Braves out of limbo. Third baseman Juan Francisco went to Milwaukee for lefty Tom Keeling, and ultimately gave the Brew Crew a league-average bat with some pop while the club dealt with an injury to veteran Aramis Ramirez.
  • A middle-of-the-month trade of seemingly limited consequence was reached between the Mets and Rockies. New York added speedy but limited outfielder Eric Young Jr., while Colorado picked up righty Collin McHugh. The latter didn’t find success at Coors Field, but turned into quite a useful starter for the Astros in the season that followed.

2012

  • The month of June started with a quiet transfer of cash considerations from the Orioles to the division-rival Yankees. The return? A first baseman by the name of Steve Pearce, who had joined New York on a minor league deal. He showed a bit of a spark that year, filled in usefully in 2013, and then exploded in the following season, when the O’s trounced the Yankees and the rest of the AL East.
  • Kevin Youkilis traded color schemes, going from the Red Sox to the White Sox on June 24th. A struggling Youk headed to Chicago along with a stack of salary-offsetting cash for righty Zach Stewart and utilityman Brent Lillibridge. The 33-year-old provided a jolt for the South Siders, though the club ultimately fell shy of the playoffs.
  • And at month’s end, the Orioles picked up veteran slugger Jim Thome from the Phillies in exchange for a pair of prospects (Kyle Simon and Gabriel Lino). The 41-year-old Thome wasn’t an impact bat for Baltimore, but neither of the players dealt has been of much consequence since.
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