Headlines

Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

MLBTR Originals

MLBTR Originals

By | at

Here’s a recap of the original content featured at MLBTR over the past week:

  • Jeff Todd updated his list of top trade deadline candidates, increasing the total from 30 in the first version to 50 in the latest iteration. Combining trade value and the likelihood of a move, White Sox closer David Robertson stands above the rest.
  • In this week’s editions of the Taking Inventory series, which breaks down trade possibilities from teams that will likely sell, Charlie Wilmoth focused on the Giants, Steve Adams examined the Royals and Jason Martinez handled the Padres.
  • Prior to the beginning of the draft on Monday, Steve polled readers on whom the Twins would select first overall. Kyle Wright, Hunter Greene, Brendan McKay and “Other” were the choices. Minnesota ended up taking high school shortstop Royce Lewis, meaning the 6.79 percent of voters who chose “Other” were closest to being correct.
  • In the latest entry in his Knocking Down The Door series, Jason profiled prospects from the Athletics, Phillies, Dodgers, Giants and Blue Jays. Shortly after, the A’s called up third baseman Matt Chapman, who Jason noted had been making a case for a big league promotion in Triple-A.

Top 50 Trade Deadline Candidates For 2017

By | at

It’s time for the second iteration of our list of the top trade deadline candidates. Click here for the first one, including an explanation of the approach. Basically, bear in mind that we’re looking at both trade likelihood and trade value (in all its facets).

There’s some movement in the rankings, as you’ll see, with team performance impacting things as much as that of the individual players in many cases. And we’ve bumped the list out from 30 to 50.

On to the rankings:

1. David Robertson, RP, White Sox (LR: 1): Though he had one rough outing since we first gave him the top nod, Robertson has mostly continued to put up zeroes. On the year, Robertson has racked up 35 strikeouts while permitting only 23 baserunners in 24 1/3 innings. Given the Sox’ posture, it’s somewhat hard to see how he won’t be dealt so long as he remains healthy and effective as of the deadline.

2. Zack Cozart, SS, Reds (LR: 3): Though his theoretical value continues to rise with his performance — Cozart has already racked up about three wins above replacement, though he has been on a cold streak of late — the demand picture remains unclear.

3. Yonder Alonso, 1B, Athletics (LR: 4): It’s more of the same for Alonso, too. Since returning from a minor injury in mid-May, he owns a .396/.467/.736 slash over sixty plate appearances.

4 (tie). Jose Quintana, SP, White Sox (LR: 5): The middling results have continued for Quintana, whose 5.30 ERA and rising walk rate are increasingly concerning. If his value doesn’t rebound fully by the deadline, the White Sox could hold onto him and focus on moving other assets. Still, with several contenders seemingly in position to add controllable starters, it seems likely that one or more such arms will end up changing hands.

4 (tie). Sonny Gray, SP, Athletics (LR: 25): The roller coaster ride continues for Gray and the A’s, but it has been more good than bad. His fastball velocity and swinging-strike rate both sit at career-high levels, and ERA estimators feel he has been unlucky to allow 4.44 earned per nine thus far. With the A’s seemingly preparing for a sell-off, and pitchers like Quintana and Gerrit Cole struggling, things are trending toward a possible deal.

6. Pat Neshek, RP, Phillies (LR: 8): It’s hard to imagine Neshek not being traded. He’s pitching as well as he was in his breakout 2014 season and would represent a nice change of pace option in basically any bullpen in baseball.

7. Brad Hand, RP, Padres (LR: 9): San Diego suggested it was willing to move Hand at any time, perhaps believing that an early sale could maximize his value. Unfortunately, a deal has yet to come together and the southpaw has coughed up seven earned runs in his last 10 2/3 innings. That said, he has still managed to record 15 strikeouts against just three walks in that span, so his market should remain strong.

8 (tie). Jed Lowrie, INF, Athletics (LR: 18): Lowrie’s offensive output has only improved since we last checked in. Just as importantly, he’s still healthy. If those things continue, the versatile switch-hitter could be a very nice rental piece for the A’s, who have a replacement lined up in Franklin Barreto and are already beginning a youth movement.

8 (tie). Eduardo Nunez, INF, Giants (LR: NR): The versatile rental player is probably the most likely player to leave San Francisco this summer. He’s not maintaining last year’s power numbers, but is running wild (17 steals) and providing solid all-around production. He could fit with a lot of organizations.

8 (tie). Howie Kendrick, 2B/OF, Phillies (LR: INJ): Despite an approaching 34th birthday, and mid-season DL stint, Kendrick has turned in a resurgent .330/.393/.485 slash this year. His .411 BABIP will surely come back down to earth, though Kendrick has long sustained elevated batting averages on balls in play. His salary isn’t all that cheap, but the Phils will undoubtedly be willing to cover as much of it as is necessary to boost their return. And it doesn’t hurt that Kendrick can be trusted both in left and at second.

11. Todd Frazier (3B) & Melky Cabrera (OF), White Sox (LR: 19 (tie)): The South Siders have now slipped into last place in the AL Central, and these spendy veterans — both of whom will hit the open market at season’s end — are starting to hit. That’s a clear recipe for a trade, though cost savings are more likely than major prospect returns.

13. Marcell Ozuna, OF, Marlins (LR: 14): He’s still raking, and the Marlins are still buried. So why isn’t Ozuna streaking up the chart? With two years of control remaining, and the Marlins working on a franchise sale, it’s not clear how available he’ll be.

14. J.D. Martinez, OF, Tigers (LR: NR): It is perhaps even less clear that Martinez will be available — your guess on how the AL Central will look on July 31st is as good as mine — but he’d arguably be the top available rental piece if he is. Martinez has mashed since returning from the DL and as a bonus has improved his defensive metrics after an ugly 2016.

15. David Phelps, SP/RP, Marlins (LR: NR): Though the 30-year-old doesn’t have the same sparkly ERA he did last year, he’s still humming along with 9.8 K/9 against 2.8 BB/9 through 32 innings and is averaging nearly 95 mph with his four-seamer. With just a $4.6MM salary and another year of control remaining, Phelps should deliver a good bit of value.

16. Ryan Madson, RP, Athletics (LR: 13): The aging veteran keeps performing at a quality rate as the A’s bring up the rear in the AL West, making it seem rather likely that the rest of his contract will be shipped out at the deadline.

17. Jaime Garcia, SP, Braves (LR: NR): The 30-year-old southpaw just missed the first iteration of this list and has turned in some impressive results since. He does have an impressive track record, and his excellent groundball rates help to offset his marginal strikeout rate, but it’d be a surprise if he can maintain his current 3.16 ERA.

18. A.J. Ramos, RP, Marlins (LR: 11): Six straight clean appearances have Ramos looking better, but his 13 walks and 3.92 ERA through 20 2/3 innings on the year have hardly boosted his trade stock.

19. Tony Watson & Juan Nicasio, RP, Pirates (LR: 7, NR): Watson tumbled out of the closer role and down this list. The 32-year-old still looks like a potential target for teams interested in late-inning lefties, given his longer record of success, though his skyrocketing susceptibility to the long ball since the start of 2016 is cause for concern. Before his own hiccups tonight, Nicasio had been off to an outstanding start. It’s anyone’s guess how the Bucs will handle the deadline, but if they were willing to deal Mark Melancon last year, they’ll likely be willing to deal these two pitchers in 2017.

21. Lorenzo Cain (OF), Mike Moustakas (3B) & Eric Hosmer (1B), Royals (LR: 2; 15, 15): Cain is on a sudden hot streak in the power department while Moose and Hoz have turned it on since our first listing. But the group is falling. This is still quite a nice group of chips, but I’m sliding all the KC players down the list for the same reason: the Royals are on the move of late and the AL Central remains tightly packed, making a “hold” scenario seem increasingly plausible.

24. Lucas Duda (1B) & Jay Bruce (OF), Mets: The Mets are in a really funny spot. Unlike some underperforming central-division teams, New York is looking up at a huge divisional gap. And there’s just as much space in the NL wild card hunt. At the same time, the injury picture could begin to look much better and the club may have a hard time explaining even a limited sell-off to fans.

26. Drew Storen, RP, Reds (LR: 30): He’s less than thirty years old, doesn’t cost much, and has been mostly effective despite diminished velocity. Storen isn’t a late-inning option anymore for a first-division team, but could deepen a lot of pens.

27. Sean Doolittle, RP, Athletics; Addison Reed, RP, Mets; Justin Wilson, RP, Tigers; Kelvin Herrera, RP, Royals (LR: INJ, NR, NR, 6): Availability is the overriding question for these high-octane relievers. Doolittle is cheap and controllable, plus his trade value is questionable given his frequent health issues. The others will only be available if their teams fail to make it back into the postseason picture, though there’s a real possibility of that occurring in all cases.

31. Jason Vargas, SP, Royals (LR: 10): As predicted, his earned run average has risen since the first time we did this list … skyrocketing from 2.03 to 2.10. Well then. As with the other KC pieces, the ranking reflects the changing dynamics in the standings.

32. Edinson Volquez, SP, Marlins (LR: NR): The 33-year-old has mostly been solid despite an unsightly walk rate (4.8 per nine) and, yes, he did just throw a no-hitter. His best qualities — durability and velocity — could hold appeal to a contender that desires rotation depth and can envision some creative postseason usage (perhaps piggybacking Volquez with another suboptimal starter). He’s earning a total of $22MM this year and next.

33. Clayton Richard, SP, Padres (LR: NR): The veteran costs nothing and is pitching like a solid back-end starter, so there’s some real function here for the right organization. It’s tough to imagine a huge return for the 33-year-old, but the fact that he’s a lefty with multi-inning ability does also make him a rather useful postseason roster piece.

34. Jeff Samardzija, SP, Giants (LR: NR): Look behind the 4.31 ERA — before tonight’s shellacking at Coors Field — and there are some eye-popping numbers. Entering today’s action Shark was carrying 10.5 K/9 against just 1.3 BB/9. Scouts have always loved him, and he’s showing why in 2017 even if the results still haven’t always been there. The 32-year-old is owed $18MM annually through 2020, which is hardly an all-time bargain but does seem like less than he’d likely command if he re-entered the market after the year. It’s worth bearing in mind that Samardzija can block deals to all but eight (currently unknown) teams, though, and it’s not entirely clear the Giants will be looking to move him with the club looking forward to several possible rotation openings next year.

35. Johnny Cueto, SP, Giants (LR: NR): Somewhat like his rotation-mate, the 31-year-old is lagging in the ERA department(4.57) but is in normal levels in most areas. That said, his velo is down a smidge and he’s suffering from a rising home-run rate (1.66 per nine with 18.4% HR/FB) and diving groundball rate (39.6%). If those normalize, he’ll look much like the top-line hurler he usually is. Still, his trade situation — and value — is greatly complicated by the opt-out clause in his contract. If he pitches well and stays healthy through the end of the year, Cueto will almost surely leave via free agency. If not, he could hang a $87MM obligation on another organization.

36. Joakim Soria, RP, Royals (LR: 12): Though he has yet to give up a home run this year,and has 35 strikeouts in his first 27 innings, the veteran righty owns a 3.67 ERA after a few rough outings.

37. Andrew McCutchen (OF) & Gerrit Cole (SP), Pirates (LR: 24, NR): Since his OPS cratered at .630 in mid-May, Cutch has driven his season’s batting line all the way back up to .255/.331/.456. That’s still more consistent with his down 2016 season than his outstanding prior results, but it’s a clear uptick. As for the staff ace, it’s hard to see Cole being dealt for anything other than a haul, though it’s equally difficult to imagine a contender paying top dollar if he isn’t pitching his best — which, so far, he has not. Generally, though, while the Pirates have clawed back toward competitiveness in an underwhelming NL Central, that doesn’t mean the Bucs won’t consider a deal.

39. Yangervis Solarte, INF, Padres (LR: NR): He’s playing better of late after an ugly start. The affordable contract and some versatility increase the appeal here. Then again, given that the Padres only just extended him, perhaps the club will prefer to keep him around unless there’s a really worthwhile offer.

40. Bud Norris, RP, Angels (LR: NR): Relievers are the easiest and most obvious pieces to move at the deadline. Norris has never been better since moving into the closer’s role, creating a circumstance where the Halos might be able to add something to a still-shallow farm system without drastically altering their MLB roster — particularly given the presence of some viable alternative closers in the organization.

41. Jarrod Dyson, OF, Mariners (LR: NR):  Dyson is a speed demon whose value is greatest in a late-season/postseason scenario, when teams don’t need utility infielders and middle relievers so much as they do players who can impact the game in the field and on the bases in high-leverage situations. As with Norris, then, he’s among the more likely players to be dealt from the rosters of the three teams currently hovering around .500 in the AL West. None of those clubs is likely to catch the Astros, but all could compete for the wild card; for now, at least, only Norris and Dyson are likely and valuable enough trade pieces  to make it into the top fifty.

42. Matt Kemp & Nick Markakis, OF, Braves (LR: 27 (tie)): Neither figures to have immense appeal — Kemp is dinged up and remains a defensive question mark, while Markakis is just a league-average hitter — and the Braves may just hold pat.

44. Daniel Nava, OF, Phillies (LR: NR): Nava carries an intriguing .310/.422/.464 batting line with lots of walks (14.6% BB rate) and few strikeouts (17.6% K rate) through 102 plate appearances. While the upside is limited, he could hold some interest as a bench bat and it’s pretty easy to imagine him changing hands.

45. Brandon Phillips, 2B, Braves (LR: NR): If you assume that his .342 BABIP will come back to earth, Phillips looks like much the same player — slightly below-average hitter but otherwise a solid veteran — he has been in recent years. The soon-to-be-36-year-old could hold appeal as a platoon or bench piece with the right team. With Jace Peterson and Ozzie Albies waiting at Triple-A, the Braves may end up preferring to move on from Phillips, whose salary is being paid almost entirely by the Reds.

46. Kurt Suzuki, C, Braves (LR: NR): While Tyler Flowers is the one with the eye-opening stat line, that seems to make it more likely that Atlanta will hold onto him and pick up his 2018 option. The respected but limited Suzuki could be an easy option if a contender needs to fill a gap behind the dish.

47. Derek Holland, SP, White Sox (LR: 29): Holland has allowed just one earned run in three of his last five starts. In the other two, though, he was tagged for a total of 14.

48. Alex Cobb, SP, Rays (LR: 22): Tampa Bay is still firmly in contention, and the team has now lost a key rotation piece in Matt Andriese. Even if those facts remain the same in late July, there’s a chance Cobb will be marketed.

49. Raisel Iglesias, RP, Reds (LR: NR): There’s no particular reason for the Reds to push to trade Iglesias, but surely they have at least thought about what they’d need to part with a high-quality player who is also a reliever with added injury risk.

50. Hunter Strickland, RP, Giants (LR: NR): The high-powered, hot-tempered righty hasn’t exactly been at his best, with nearly double last year’s walk rate even as his ERA sits at an excellent 2.08, but his power arsenal would surely hold appeal. And if he has worn out his welcome a bit through the Bryce Harper beaning incident, then perhaps the Giants will see fit to move him.

Falling Out

Anthony Swarzak, RP, White Sox (LR: 17): Since his fantastic first month and a half, Swarzak has come back to earth in terms of peripherals and results.

Ian Kennedy, SP, Royals (LR: 21): Beyond the general Royals assessment noted above, a few rough outings reduce the likelihood that Kennedy will opt out of his deal — or hold sufficient appeal to contenders to move the remainder of that contract. (At the exact moment this post is going up, though, he’s through five perfect innings in his current start.)

Jeremy Hellickson, SP, Phillies (LR: 23): Those iffy peripherals we warned about last time? They are still problematic. And now it’s showing in the results. In his last five starts, Hellickson carries a 7.57 ERA with 14 strikeouts and 14 walks.

David Freese, 3B, Pirates (LR: 26): The overall results remain solid for the reliable veteran. But the Bucs may be inclined to hold him even if they do end up selling. The market includes several other options and Pittsburgh will value the ability to retain Freese at a palatable rate for 2018.

Injured

Nate Jones (White Sox), Trevor Cahill (Padres), Bartolo Colon (Braves), Neil Walker (Mets), Cesar Hernandez (Phillies), Darren O’Day & Zach Britton (Orioles)

Also Considered

Angels: Yunel Escobar, Cameron Maybin, J.C. Ramirez, Jesse Chavez, Ricky Nolasco, Yusmeiro Petit, David Hernandez

Athletics: Stephen Vogt, Rajai Davis, Matt Joyce, Santiago Casilla, John Axford

Blue Jays: Jose Bautista, Justin Smoak, Josh Donaldson, Marco Estrada, J.A. Happ, Francisco Liriano, Roberto Osuna, Aaron Loup, Joe Smith

Braves: Kurt Suzuki, Jim Johnson, Arodys Vizcaino, R.A. Dickey, Bartolo Colon, Julio Teheran, Matt Adams

Cardinals: Lance Lynn, Michael Wacha, Seung-hwan Oh, Trevor Rosenthal

Giants: Aaron Hill, Nick Hundley, Hunter Pence, Matt Cain, Mark Melancon, Denard Span, George Kontos

Mariners: Nelson Cruz, Carlos Ruiz, Marc Rzepczynski, Steve Cishek

Marlins: Dan Straily, Kyle Barraclough, Tom Koehler, Adam Conley, Brad Ziegler, Christian Yelich, Giancarlo Stanton

Mets: Curtis Granderson, Jerry Blevins, Fernando Salas, Josh Edgin

Orioles: Welington Castillo, J.J. Hardy, Manny Machado, Seth Smith, Hyun Soo Kim, Wade Miley, Brad Brach, Mychal Givens

Padres: Jhoulys Chacin, Ryan Buchter, Brandon Maurer, Craig Stammen

Phillies: Freddy Galvis, Michael Saunders, Joaquin Benoit, Hector Neris

Pirates: Josh Harrison, Ivan Nova, Wade LeBlanc

Rangers: Yu Darvish, Jonathan Lucroy, Mike Napoli, Carlos Gomez, Adrian Beltre, Andrew Cashner, Tyson Ross, Jeremy Jeffress

Rays: Chris Archer, Jake Odorizzi, Corey Dickerson, Logan Morrison, Alex Colome, Erasmo Ramirez, Danny Farquhar

Reds: Scott Feldman, Raisel Iglesias, Billy Hamilton

Royals: Alcides Escobar, Brandon Moss, Jason Hammel, Mike Minor

White Sox: Miguel Gonzalez, Tommy Kahnle, Jose Abreu

Taking Inventory: San Diego Padres

By | at

This is the sixth entry in MLBTR’s Taking Inventory series. Click for entries on the White Sox, Royals, Phillies, Pirates and Giants.

After trading Derek Norris this past offseason, the part of the Padres’ rebuild that involved trading away veterans to shed salary and/or make room for younger players had come to an end. But that didn’t close the door on general manager A.J. Preller’s ability to wheel and deal during the 2017 season. By signing a quartet of free agent starting pitchers to help bridge the gap until the team’s younger pitchers were ready to contribute—Trevor Cahill, Jhoulys Chacin, Clayton Richard and Jered Weaver were each signed to one-year deals for a combined total of $8.25MM— they also added some potential trade chips to go along with any other players on the roster with less than three years of club control.

With three of the four veteran starters having established some trade value and several other players expected to draw strong interest, the only question is how long Preller waits before pulling the trigger on his first trade of 2017. Let’s break down who could become available…

Rentals

Clayton Richard, LHP (starter) | Salary: $1.75MM

Richard has had a career resurgence since joining the Padres last August, posting a 3.64 ERA over 141.2 innings. The 33-year-old was one out away from a complete game shutout on Tuesday before allowing a 2-run double on his 127th pitch of the game. It was the third time this season he’s flirted with that rare feat. He allowed one earned run in a complete game win against the D’backs on May 21st and pitched eight shutout innings against the Dodgers in his 2017 debut in April. He’s also completed at least six innings in nine of his 14 starts. A reliable lefty starter who can pitch deep into games can be very useful on a playoff contender.

Jhoulys Chacin, RHP (starter) | Salary: $1.75MM

Aside from three disastrous starts, which account for 23 earned runs over 10 innings, Chacin has been pretty good for the Padres. The 29-year-old hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in his other 10 starts and has completed at least six innings on eight different occasions. A reunion with the Rockies would make a lot of sense as their young pitching staff will need some help down the stretch.

Trevor Cahill, RHP (starter) | Salary: $1.75MM

A pair of disabled list stints due to back and shoulder injuries will likely keep Cahill’s trade value to a minimum, but he’s been impressive in a seven-start sample with a 3.27 ERA and 11.1 K/9 in 41.1 innings pitched. If he can return to health—he’s on track to be activated in the next few weeks—the 29-year-old should have at least 4 or 5 starts to showcase his talent to a contending team. He could also draw interest as a reliever based on his strong 2016 season out of the bullpen for the World Champion Cubs.

Erick Aybar, SS | Salary: $1.5MM

There’s not much of a market for shortstops and Aybar has been a disappointment, anyways, with a .215/.282/.328 slash line in 196 plate appearances. Nevertheless, he can be had for very little if a team is looking to add some veteran infield depth. At this rate, he’s more likely to be released than traded.

Craig Stammen, RHP (reliever) | Salary: $900K 

Stammen’s ERA is a bit inflated (4.25) due to a three-appearance stretch in April when he allowed 10 earned runs in three innings. Aside from that, his numbers (36 IP, 2.8 BB/9, 9.0 K/9) look very similar to his those he posted as a very effective multi-inning reliever with the Washington Nationals from 2012-2014. The 33-year-old has pitched at least two innings in 10 of his 22 appearances and has held right-handed hitters to a .610 OPS.

 

Controlled Through 2019

Brad Hand, LHP (reliever) | Salary: $1.375MM (arbitration-eligible this winter)

While there was some early-season trade buzz surrounding Hand after a dominant first month, his more recent struggles—he has a 4.57 ERA over his last 18 appearances with two blown saves and four losses—have most likely scared off any suitors who would’ve been willing to strike early and meet what would’ve been a very high asking price. Still, the 27-year-old has emerged as one of the better lefty setup men in baseball over the past year. The Red Sox were able to flip two-and-a-half months of Andrew Miller for a Top 100 prospect (Eduardo Rodriguez) at the 2014 trade deadline. Hand isn’t Miller, but he’s under team control for two-and-a-half years so it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Padres could net a fairly significant return.

Brandon Maurer, RHP (reliever) | Salary: $1.9MM in 2017, (arbitration-eligible this winter)

Maurer could be a tough sell with his 6.15 ERA, but he’s saved 12 of 14 games, throws a sinking fastball that reaches the upper 90s and is averaging 9.6 K/9. He was also very good after taking over as the Padres’ closer last July, converting 13 of 15 save chances while posting a 3.09 ERA. A team would have to be willing to pay the price for what Maurer has been aside from a handful of bad games—he has a 2.45 ERA if you throw out three awful appearances. Otherwise, the Padres will be happy to hold on to him until at least the upcoming offseason.

Yangervis Solarte, 2B/3B | Salary: $2.625MM in 2017, $4.125MM in 2018, $5.5MM club option for 2019, not eligible for free agency if declined (plus $750K buyout of $8MM club option for 2020)

The 29-year-old, who was rewarded with a two-year contract extension after a breakout season in 2016, has finally heated up after struggling through the first month-and-a-half of 2017. As a result—Solarte is slashing .333/.429/.474 over his last 21 games—trade interest could soon pick up for the switch-hitting infielder. His team-friendly contract, defensive versatility and ability to come through in the clutch—he has a .956 OPS with runners in scoring position—could make him a nice under-the-radar acquisition for a contending team.

 

Longer-Term Assets

Wil Myers, 1B (starter) | Salary: $4.5MM in 2017, $4.5MM in 2018, $5.5MM in 2019, $22.5MM in 2020, 2021 and 2022 (plus $1MM buyout of $20MM club option for 2023)

The Padres made it clear that Myers was a player they wanted to build around when they gave him a franchise-record $83MM contract extension in January. That doesn’t mean they’re not willing to listen if a team was interested in trading for the 26-year-old All-Star, who had 29 homers and 28 stolen bases in 2016. Teams probably won’t be willing to take on that big contract, however, until he’s proven that he can be an MVP-caliber player since he’ll be paid like one in a few years. Based on his current slump (.547 OPS, HR, 37 strikeouts in 97 plate appearances), I’m guessing that he’s not quite ready to make the jump from “very good” player to “great” player.

Taking Inventory: Chicago White Sox

By | at

This is the fifth entry in MLBTR’s Taking Inventory series. Click for entries on the Royals, Phillies, Pirates and Giants.

It’s obviously no surprise to see the White Sox lining up as sellers as the trade deadline approaches. Chicago dealt away two of its three best assets over the winter in Chris Sale and Adam Eaton, and has fallen into the AL Central basement after a decent start to the year.

Rival teams have had plenty of time to peruse the White Sox roster in anticipation of summer dealmaking. Here’s how it looks at present:

Rentals

Todd Frazier, 3B | Salary: $12MM

Though his overall output hasn’t been great this year (or last), Frazier has hit much better of late (.256/.368/.533 in his last 106 plate appearances). His ultimate trade value will hinge upon his performance over the next month and a half, as well as the shape of the market. Demand at third base remains an open question, and there could be some competition if players like Mike Moustakas and David Freese are marketed.

Melky Cabrera, OF/DH | Salary: $15MM

The Melk Man is also trending up after a poor start to the season, and he is also playing on the backdrop of a strong 2016 campaign at the plate. Of course, he’s also earning at a very healthy rate and is rather a poor baserunner and fielder, so there are very real limits to the levels of interest that might be anticipated even if the bat keeps producing.

Anthony Swarzak, RP | Salary: $900K

Plenty of pitchers end up with surprisingly good earned run averages over short samples, but Swarzak was also showing impressive peripherals early on. That has all come to a halt more recently, but that’s not to say that Swarzak won’t still hold some appeal at the trade deadline — especially if he can turn it back on a bit (and particularly for organizations that don’t want to take on salary).

Miguel Gonzalez, SP | Salary: $5.9MM

Gonzalez has allowed a dozen home runs in as many starts and has only managed 5.1 K/9 on the year. Perhaps it’s more likely at this point that he ends up holding down the fort for the rest of the year in Chicago, which may have some innings to account for if other pitchers are dealt.

Derek Holland, SP | Salary: $6MM

While Holland has fared rather well in the earned-run department, allowing 3.79 per nine innings through 73 2/3 frames on the year, there’s also quite a lot of reason for skepticism. ERA estimators are not buying it — 5.35 FIP; 5.08 xFIP; 4.87 SIERA — but perhaps another organization could see cause to add Holland for rotation depth down the stretch.

Mike Pelfrey, SP | Salary: $535K (balance of $8MM salary owed by Tigers)

Like Holland, a palatable (3.88) ERA is masking some bigger issues. The veteran carries just 5.4 K/9 against 3.9 BB/9 on the year and has benefited from a .260 batting average on balls in play.

Controlled Through 2018

David Robertson, RP | Salary: $12MM in 2017; $13MM in 2018

The dollars seem increasingly palatable for Robertson, who may end up being the best-performing closer available at the deadline. He has managed to tamp down on last year’s walk issues while running at a career-best 16.6% swinging strike rate. The Sox will likely be willing to hang onto some salary in order to increase the prospect return, which could result in some interesting trade possibilities.

James Shields, SP | Salary: $10MM in 2017; $10MM in 2018 (remainder of $44MM guarantee through 2019 owed by Padres)

The veteran righty proved an ill-advised early trade acquisition last summer for the South Siders. Though he managed a 1.62 ERA through his first three starts of the current season, Shields’s growing control problems worsened and he was clearly benefiting from some good fortune (.150 BABIP; 100% strand rate). Since then, he has been shelved with a lat strain. Shields will return this weekend, though, so he’ll have some time to show off for possible suitors.

Longer-Term Assets

Jose Quintana, SP; Jose Abreu, 1B; Avisail Garcia, OF; Tommy Kahnle, RP; Leury Garcia, OF

This is where things get really interesting for Chicago. Quintana has long been discussed as a significant trade piece, but the White Sox held off on making a deal over the winter in hopes of finding a better return this summer. A rather poor start to the season from Quintana may have scuttled those hopes, though it’s still possible to imagine something coming together if he returns to form over the next six weeks.

It’s tough to gauge the outlook for Abreu, a 30-year-old slugger who’s controlled through 2019. He isn’t going to be particularly cheap now that he has opted into arbitration, and it’s not clear that there’ll be a ton of demand for non-premier first basemen. Abreu is hitting well — .289/.343/.472 with ten home runs through 268 plate appearances — but that’s not the kind of top-end output that would motivate a team to give up significant young assets when more affordable rental players can likely be found.

Garcia, meanwhile, has played himself into an interesting situation. He’s owed just $3MM this year with two more years of control remaining and only just turned 26. While the deeper track record is filled with question marks, he’s slashing /333/.373/.551 through 249 trips to the plate. Of course, Garcia is walking less than ever (3.6%) and is benefiting from a .402 BABIP, so rival organizations will maintain some healthy skepticism.

It’s more likely that the Sox will retain the cheap and controllable Kahnle, who has broken out with a 1.42 ERA and ridiculous 17.2% swinging-strike rate this year, though it’s always possible that the opportunity to cash in on a reliever would be taken. (Fellow setup man Nate Jones looked like a possible trade chip, though he has been out long enough with an elbow injury that it no longer seems very likely.) As for Garcia, who will reach arbitration eligibility next year, it’s questionable whether he can sustain anything like his current .300/.349/.461 output. But he is a solid all-around player who has rated well in center this year and can also play the middle infield, so he could be quite a useful piece for a contender.

Knocking Down The Door: Chapman, Eshelman, Font, Jones, Leblebijian

By | at

“Knocking Down the Door” is a weekly feature that identifies minor leaguers who are making a case for a big league promotion.

Matt Chapman, 3B, Oakland Athletics (Triple-A Nashville)

In an ideal scenario for a non-competitive A’s team, Trevor Plouffe would already be generating interest on the trade market with Chapman ready to take over at the hot corner sometime in August or even September. Instead, the A’s aren’t anywhere close to a playoff spot and Plouffe’s trade value might be as low as it’s ever been—he has a .640 OPS and is in a 7-for-53 slump with 20 strikeouts over that span. Therefore, moving up the 24-year-old Chapman’s MLB debut seems more likely by the day.

The 25th overall pick in the 2014 draft, Chapman had a rough start to the season. After going 0-for-7 with six strikeouts, he injured his wrist and missed the next two weeks. He had just three singles in his first 23 at-bats after returning, but he finally caught fire in early May and hasn’t slowed down since. He finished May with 11 homers and a 1.031 OPS. So far in June, the right-handed slugger has hit five out of the park and has a 1.014 OPS. Ryon Healy was called up in mid-July of last season. At this rate, Chapman should be up prior to the All-Star break.

Athletics Depth Chart

—

Tom Eshelman, SP, Philadelphia Phillies (Triple-A Lehigh Valley)

Heading into the season, Eshelman couldn’t have been higher than 10th on the Phillies’ starting rotation depth chart. Just two months into the season, though, he’s making a strong case to be next in line. Injuries to Clay Buchholz and Vince Velasquez have helped, but the 22-year-old’s quick rise has mostly been a result of his performance.

In 12 starts—seven in Triple-A and five in Double-A—Eshelman has posted a 2.11 ERA with only 10 walks and 59 strikeouts in 81 innings. Since two somewhat shaky starts to begin the season with Double-A Reading (10 IP, 4 ER, 13 H), he’s been lights out, completing at least 6 innings in his last 10 starts with no more than one walk allowed and a 1.90 ERA.

Phillies Depth Chart

—

Wilmer Font, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers (Triple-A Oklahoma City)

While it seems unlikely that Font makes a start for the Dodgers in 2017, it’s hard for them—or other teams around the league—to not be intrigued by the significant jump in his strikeout rate this season. In 12 starts over 65 innings, the 27-year-old right-hander has 95 strikeouts and only 13 walks. That’s more than two walks below and two strikeouts above his career BB/9 (4.1) and K/9 (10.6) rates over his lengthy Minor League career. He’s also keeping runs allowed at a minimum, posting a 3.15 ERA over his last 11 starts, including a 15-strikeout game in which he was perfect through six innings.

As important as pitching depth is, it’s likely that the Dodgers will hold on to Font just in case he’s needed at some point to give them some innings. But it also wouldn’t be a big surprise if a team in need of a starter tries to pry him away from the Dodgers in the near future, allowing them to cash in on a Minor League free agent acquisition.

Dodgers Depth Chart

—

Ryder Jones, 3B, San Francisco Giants (Triple-A Sacramento)

USATSI_9662157_154513410_lowres

Top prospect Christian Arroyo was able to give the Giants a spark upon his arrival in the big leagues—he held his own at the plate and had a few big homers early on—but slumped badly before he was demoted in early June. He’ll be back at some point, but the 22-year-old might be better off staying in Triple-A until September.

In the meantime, the 23-year-old Jones has set himself for a possible promotion with an impressive display of hitting (.292/.392/.522; 7 HR, 12 2B) and defensive versatility (he’s primarily a third baseman, but he’s also played left field, right field, first base and shortstop). Unless the struggling Giants can turn things around in the very near future, it’s likely that third baseman Eduardo Nuñez will be on the trade block, which could give Jones an opening to regular playing time. For now, his left-handed bat and ability to play multiple positions could help the team during their last-ditch effort to jump back into the playoff picture.

Giants Depth Chart

—

Jason Leblebijian, 2B, Toronto Blue Jays (Triple-A Buffalo)

Injuries throughout the Blue Jays’ infield have kept Ryan Goins busy—he’s started 40 of the team’s 63 games—but, as would’ve been expected, he’s not providing much offense (.605 OPS).  A healthy return from Devon Travis, who is on the disabled list with a knee injury, would push him back to a bench role. But given Travis’ extensive injury history and without a current timetable for return, it could be a good time to give Leblebijian a look at second base.

The former 25th Round draft pick has a .310/.380/.518 slash line with eight homers and 11 doubles in his first 57 Triple-A games. While his International League numbers aren’t likely to carry over to the Majors, they’re interesting enough, along with his strong defensive ability, to find out if he’s capable of helping the Jays out now.

Blue Jays Depth Chart

—

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Taking Inventory: Kansas City Royals

By | at

This is the fourth entry in MLBTR’s Taking Inventory series. Click for entries on the Phillies, Pirates and Giants.

The Royals entered the 2017 season knowing full well that the majority of their World-Series-winning core was slated to hit free agency. Rather than blow it up this offseason, Kansas City traded only Wade Davis, extended Danny Duffy and then made some low-cost veteran additions to help round out the roster. Many of those moves were made in the wake of tragedy, as the Royals suffered the devastating loss of one of their core pieces this offseason when Yordano Ventura’s life was tragically taken in a car accident.

Unfortunately for Dayton Moore and his staff, their offseaon maneuverings have yet to yield on-field success. Kansas City is 5.5 games out of first place in the American League Central and currently sports Major League Baseball’s fifth-worst run differential (-47). Their 4.38 team ERA ranks 18th in the Majors, and they’re without their top pitcher, Duffy, through at least the All-Star break due to an oblique injury. Kansas City has scored the second-fewest runs in baseball as well, and their collective 80 wRC+ is the game’s third-worst mark.

According to just about any report one reads, the Royals haven’t yet decided to call it quits and are still intent on trying to make one more run. But as the summer wears on, it becomes likelier and likelier that they’ll be forced to begin fielding trade offers. Let’s break down who could become available…

Rentals

Lorenzo Cain, CF | Salary: $11MM

A premium defensive center fielder with plus baserunning skills and an above-average bat, Cain would likely be the most coveted trade asset the Royals have to offer in a potential sale. He’s hitting .265/.345/.412 with six homers (while playing in a pitcher-friendly home park), 12 steals and three to four runs saved with his glove (per Ultimate Zone Rating and Defensive Runs Saved). His defensive prowess in center would allow him to play plus defense in an outfield corner, as well, so even contending clubs that already have center field covered could slide him (or the incumbent option) over to left or right.

Eric Hosmer, 1B | Salary: $12.25MM

Hosmer had a terrible second half in 2016 and got off to a slow start in 2017, but he’s reminded everyone why there’s talk of him potentially signing a mega-deal this offseason with his recent play. He’s hitting .314/.363/.469 on the season as a whole, and if you throw out his first 20 games of the season, that slash line jumps to a preposterous .370/.415/.574. That’s admittedly an arbitrary cutoff, and Hosmer has shown to be too ground-ball happy and prone to slumps in the past. But for the past 42 games, he’s been among baseball’s very best hitters, and a club with a void at first base/DH such as the Yankees, Rangers or Mariners (if the latter two end up as buyers) could benefit.

Mike Moustakas, 3B | Salary: $8.7MM

Moustakas missed most of the 2016 season due to a torn ACL, and while there was no way to be certain that he’d return to form in 2017, he’s done that and then some. With 17 homers and a .275/.314/.554 batting line, he’s on his way to the best offensive season of his career. Defensive metrics typically grade Moose as an above-average performer at third base, though they’re a bit mixed in the wake of last season’s knee injury. DRS has him at -3, while UZR has him at +1. At the worst, interested clubs could expect merely passable glovework accompanied by huge production against righties, though Moustakas remains overmatched by left-handed pitchers (.212/.241/.481).

Alcides Escobar, SS | Salary: $6.5MM

Escobar has never been much of an offensive performer, but he’s simply not hitting at all in 2017. With a .180/.205/.234 batting line, he’s been baseball’s least-productive bat (among qualified hitters). However, Escobar remains a gifted defender at a premium position (+2 DRS, +5 UZR) and still runs the bases well. At the least, he could be a bench piece on a contending club.

Mike Minor, LHP (reliever) | Salary: $4MM (plus $1.25MM buyout of $10MM mutual option)

Minor has thrived upon his shift to a bullpen role, embracing relief work with a 2.25 ERA, 9.3 K/9, 2.5 BB/9 and a 44.4 percent ground-ball rate through 32 2/3 innings. Lefties have posted a pathetic .125/.205/.175 batting line against him, and right-handers haven’t fared especially well, either (.243/.300/.351). Minor is technically controlled through 2018, but mutual options are so rarely exercised by both parties that he’s best viewed as a pure rental. I do think there’s at least a plausible scenario where both sides pick the option up due to Minor’s excellence but limited ’pen track record and recent health troubles. But, the contracts secured by Mike Dunn and Brett Cecil on last year’s open market suggest that Minor can do better if he continues at this pace.

Jason Vargas, LHP (starter) | Salary: $8MM

I doubt that many are buying Vargas’ sensational 2.18 ERA, but even if he’s still just viewed as the mid-rotation innings eater he’s always been, there’s plenty to like. He’s affordable, has posted modest improvements over his career K/9 and BB/9 rates and looks to have bounced back from the 2015 Tommy John surgery that ultimately cost him the better part of two seasons. Vargas might not be part of a postseason rotation, but he’d be a valuable rotation stabilizer for a team with uncertainty at the back of its starting five.

Peter Moylan, RHP (reliever) | Salary: $1MM

Moylan’s ERA is currently residing just north of 7.00 due to the fact that he’s been annihilated by left-handed batters. However, he’s been untouchable against righties, limiting same-handed opponents to a putrid .212/.268/.273 batting line through 71 plate appearances. If used properly, he can be a nice bullpen piece, and he’s certainly affordable from a financial standpoint.

Chris Young, RHP (reliever) | Salary: $5.75MM (plus $1.25MM buyout of $8MM mutual option)

Young was outstanding with Seattle and Kansas City in 2014-15, but he’s been rocked for a 6.31 ERA over the past 117 innings, and his secondary stats don’t offer much encouragement. He’ll need to improve over the next month-plus to have much in the way of trade value. He could also be an August trade candidate, as his salary is all but a lock to clear waivers.

Controlled Through 2018

Kelvin Herrera, RHP (reliever) | Salary: $5.325MM (arbitration-eligible this winter)

Herrera looks like one of the best bets to be traded this summer, but his recent performance can’t be helping his stock. Over his past 10 1/3 innings of work, Herrera has allowed 10 earned runs on the strength of three homers. So long as the homer troubles don’t continue, most will probably look past that blip and find plenty to like in the 27-year-old’s 28-to-5 K/BB ratio through 25 1/3 innings. He’s averaging nearly 98 mph and can help out a team for the next year and a half if he returns to form.

Joakim Soria, RHP (reliever) | Salary: $8MM in 2017, $9MM in 2018 (plus $1MM buyout of $10MM mutual option for 2019)

Soria’s stock in 2017 is up after a pedestrian campaign in 2016. While his 3.81 ERA isn’t too much of an improvement over last year’s 4.05 mark, Soria has averaged a career-best 12.1 K/9 to complement a career-high 60.3 percent ground-ball rate. His walks are up this season, but his uptick in strikeouts and grounders could portend a drop in his ERA. (FIP, xFIP and SIERA all like him for a sub-3.00 mark.) Given his salary, the Royals may still have to kick in a bit of cash to make him truly appealing, but he’s more marketable than he was last year.

Brandon Moss, 1B/OF | Salary: $3.75MM in 2017, $7.25MM in 2018 (plus $1MM buyout of $10MM mutual option for 2019)

It’d be tough to move Moss right now, given his woeful .181/.250/.406 batting line through his first 152 plate appearances as a Royal. He’s striking out in nearly 35 percent of his plate appearances and has become more pull-happy than ever as his hard-hit rate has dropped to its lowest level in the past three seasons. There’s still time for him to improve, but this version of Moss doesn’t carry much value.

Travis Wood, LHP (reliever) | Salary: $4MM in 2017, $6.5MM in 2018 (plus $1MM buyout of $8MM mutual option for 2019)

Like Moss, Wood signed a two-year deal with Kansas City late in free agency and looked like a nice modestly priced addition. Instead, he’s going through the worst season of his Major League career, pitching to an 8.31 ERA with as many walks (17) as strikeouts in just 21 2/3 innings. Wood’s struggles have been pretty consistent, and even left-handed hitters, who usually struggle against Wood, have teed off against him in 2017.

Jason Hammel, RHP (starter) | Salary: $5MM in 2017, $9MM in 2018 (plus $2MM buyout of $12MM mutual option for 2019)

Another two-year offseason deal that hasn’t panned out, Hammel is sitting on a 5.43 ERA with 7.1 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 and a 35.4 percent ground-ball rate. Each of those marks represents a significant step back from his 2015-16 numbers, though Hammel has offered a glimmer of hope with a pair of excellent outings in his two most recent starts (three runs on nine hits and no walks with 11 strikeouts in 13 2/3 innings). If he can continue to right the ship, his salary is reasonable enough to appeal to clubs in need of back-of-the-rotation fortification.

Drew Butera, C | Salary: $1.5MM in 2017, $2.3MM in 2018

Butera hasn’t come close to last season’s career year at the plate, though he’s never been close to even average offensive output with the exception of 2016, so expecting a repeat wasn’t really fair. He’s a well-regarded defensive catcher that could give clubs a veteran backup down the stretch.

Longer-Term Assets

Ian Kennedy, RHP (starter); Alex Gordon, OF; Seth Maness, RHP (reliever); Billy Burns, OF

The opt-out clause in Kennedy’s contract and the remaining $43MM on his contract (through 2020) make him an almost impossible player to move in light of his struggles. Kennedy’s K/BB numbers have taken significant steps back in 2017, and his 5.40 ERA makes it look certain that he’ll forgo that opt-out at season’s end, barring a sensational turnaround.

Gordon isn’t hitting at all right now, and it’s as difficult to envision a team being willing to take on his a chunk of his contract as it is to envision the Royals eating a huge chunk of money just to get rid of a player that has achieved borderline franchise icon status.

Maness and Burns are both on the 40-man and have both had some Major League success in the past. Burns is getting on base but not hitting for a shred of power in Triple-A. Maness has been better in Omaha than he has in the Majors this year, but the larger story on him is that he appears healthy after undergoing an experimental Tommy John alternative last August.

Poll: Who Will Be The No. 1 Overall Draft Pick?

By | at

Major League Baseball’s annual amateur draft kicks off tonight at 7pm ET, and the Twins will be on the clock with the No. 1 overall pick for the first time since selecting local catcher out of St. Paul’s Cretin-Derham Hall high school named Joe Mauer back in 2001. While some draft classes have a very clear top overall pick (e.g. Bryce Harper, Stephen Strasburg), that doesn’t appear to be the case this season. There have been rumors circulating about who the Twins will select No. 1 overall tonight for months, now, and the top three names on the board, at the very least, seem to be clear….

  • Hunter Greene, RHP/SS, Notre Dame HS (Sherman Oaks, Calif.): Greene has been the most talked-about player in the draft class for the past year. A two-way high school star that has already graced the cover of Sports Illustrated and generated awe with a fastball that has reached 102 mph, Greene sits atop the draft rankings of MLB.com, Baseball America and ESPN. However, while he has the highest upside in the class, there’s also never been a high school right-hander selected No. 1 overall in the draft, and the risks associated with a prep pitcher are greater than those associated with a college player or even a fellow high school pitcher. Most mock drafts from experts have had the Twins passing on Greene, though he’s undoubtedly a tempting option for the new-look Minnesota front office.
  • Kyle Wright, RHP, Vanderbilt: Wright ranks first on Fangraphs’ list of draft prospects, just edging out Greene for that top spot. Over the past month, he’s been the most oft-connected name to the Twins, with most draft experts and scouting reports touting him as the best combination of ceiling and certainty. Armed with a fastball that sits in the low to mid 90s and can reach 97 mph, Wright also has solid control and three secondary offerings that scouting reports peg as average to above-average. He may not have generated as much fanfare and intrigue as the two-way stars that join him atop the draft class, but Wright is very much in the mix to go first overall.
  • Brendan McKay, LHP/1B, Louisville: Scouting reports on McKay are split on whether his best long-term fit is on the mound or as a position player, but there’s a general belief that he could excel either way. Whether a team prefers McKay as a pitcher or a hitter, he seems like a virtual lock to go in the top five of the draft. MLB.com’s report gives him a future 60-grade rating in either role, while ESPN’s Keith Law notes that he showed a bit of fatigue on the mound late in the season. Dedicating himself fully to one discipline under a professional coaching/player development staff could allow McKay to take his game to a new level in either direction. The Twins have been connected to McKay quite often, and while most mocks had Wright going No. 1 overall for the past month, McKay’s name has regained a bit of steam in the past few days.

Readers can check out more details on this year’s draft class by diving into the excellent work from Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com (free); Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs (free); Keith Law of ESPN.com (Insider subscription required/recommended); and John Manuel and his team over at Baseball America (subscription required and, once again, recommended).

But, if you already have an opinion on the matter formed, let’s get right to the poll (link for Trade Rumors mobile app users)…

Who will the Twins take with the No. 1 overall pick?
Brendan McKay 33.14% (2,088 votes)
Kyle Wright 32.27% (2,033 votes)
Hunter Greene 27.62% (1,740 votes)
Other (Specify in comments) 6.97% (439 votes)
Total Votes: 6,300

Taking Inventory: San Francisco Giants

By | at

MLBTR is launching a new summer series entitled Taking Inventory, in which we’ll preview the potential trade chips that could become available on a number of likely and borderline selling clubs throughout the league.

The Giants are already 25-39 and are not only 16 1/2 games behind the first-place Rockies in the NL West, they’re 13 1/2 games back of the third-place Diamondbacks. While it’s not impossible that they could still make a run at contention, it’s highly unlikely. That would seem to make them potential sellers at the trade deadline. Still, one shouldn’t necessarily expect fireworks. The Giants have endured frustrating seasons in the somewhat recent past and generally haven’t reacted with big shakeups, and even if their track record indicated a radical rebuild was a possibility, the circumstances of many of their veterans assets seemingly impede potential trades (as ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick recently explained).

Rentals

Johnny Cueto, RHP (starter) | Salary: $21MM

There are no indications yet that the Giants will move Cueto, and to do so would be complex, although not impossible. Cueto is signed through 2021 with a team option for 2022, but he has an opt-out after the 2017 season, meaning that it will be difficult for any potential trade partner to know whether they’re getting a long-term asset or a short-term one. Cueto will also receive a $5MM buyout if he exercises his opt-out and a $500K assignment bonus if he’s traded, further complicating a potential move. Cueto’s seemingly uneven performance this year might also be a factor, but perhaps a less important one — he has a 4.33 ERA this season, but his peripherals (9.0 K/9, 2.4 BB/9) are strong as usual.

Eduardo Nunez, IF | Salary: $4.2MM

Unlike many players on this list, Nunez is reasonably priced. While he’s never been a world-beater offensively, he’s been consistent, and his .293/.320/.401 line thus far this season provides a good indication of what to expect from his contact-heavy offensive game going forward. He’s also versatile defensively, capable of playing third base, shortstop and the corner outfield spots. A contender could easily see him as a terrific bench piece. Nunez is as likely as any player on this list to be moved, and a trade would have the benefit of clearing a spot for some combination of Christian Arroyo and Jae-gyun Hwang, who are both currently with Triple-A Sacramento.

Aaron Hill, IF | Salary: $2MM

Hill is a recent minor-league signee who’s batting .178/.238/.333 thus far this season. It’s possible the Giants could deal him to a team in need of infield depth, but the return isn’t likely to be significant.

Nick Hundley, C | Salary: $2MM

Like Hill, Hundley has hit sparingly this season and wouldn’t have much trade value. It’s possible the Giants could ship him in a minor deal to a team in need of catching depth.

Controlled Through 2018

Hunter Pence, OF | Salary: $18.5MM

Pence has a full no-trade clause and has played poorly this season, batting .228/.269/.310 and missing time to a hamstring strain. Like many Giants, he might net the team a bit of extra value on the trade market due to his postseason experience, but he’s still unlikely to command much of a return unless he hits well over the next six weeks.

Matt Cain, RHP (starter) | Salary: $20MM

Cain’s exorbitant salary, the $7.5MM buyout on his 2018 option, and his uninspiring performances the past several seasons would seemingly make a trade very tricky, except perhaps as a change-of-scenery deal in which the Giants were to pick up nearly all of his remaining salary.

Longer-Term Assets

Jeff Samardzija, RHP (starter); Buster Posey, C; Mark Melancon, RHP (reliever); Madison Bumgarner, LHP (starter), Denard Span, OF; Brandon Crawford, SS; Matt Moore, LHP (starter); Brandon Belt, 1B; George Kontos, RHP (reliever)

Though Samardzija has a 4.31 ERA this season, his outstanding ratios (10.5 K/9, 1.3 BB/9) would surely make him an attractive trade candidate. He is, however, signed through 2020 and can block trades to all but eight teams, complicating potential deals. It certainly wouldn’t be impossible for the Giants to trade him, but as with Cueto, it would be complex.

Posey and Melancon have full no-trade protection and are under contract for the next several seasons. Bumgarner has limited no-trade protection, is currently injured, and has reasonably priced options for 2018 and 2019. Span is 33, has produced modest offense this season, and is owed $9MM next season, plus at least a $4MM buyout and a remaining portion of his signing bonus. Crawford is signed through 2021 and has full no-trade protection. Moore is signed to a team-friendly contract that includes relatively cheap options for 2018 and 2019, potentially making him a trade asset, but he hasn’t pitched well this season. Belt is signed through 2021; his limited no-trade clause hasn’t yet kicked in, but he’s also in the first year of the extension he signed last season. Of all those players, perhaps the most likely to be dealt are Span and Moore, and neither of those seem that likely.

Kontos is one of a number of Giants relievers who could theoretically be dealt, also including Cory Gearrin, Hunter Strickland and Derek Law. Of those, Kontos is among the closest to free agency eligibility and the one with the longest track record. He’s signed for a reasonable $1.75MM in 2017 and is controllable for two more seasons, and while his strikeout and walk rates have fluctuated throughout his career and he’s never had elite velocity, he’s also never had a season in which he wasn’t at least modestly effective.

MLBTR Originals

By | at

Here’s a look back at this week’s original content from the MLBTR writing staff.

  • MLBTR contributor Chuck Wasserstrom spoke to longtime ESPN writer Jayson Stark, who reflected on his career so far, saying, “I really never set out to become the Alex Trebek of baseball. That just happened by accident.”
  • Chuck also chatted with longtime Dodgers scouting director Logan White about the pair of drafts in 2002 and 2003 that netted Russell Martin, Matt Kemp, Jonathan Broxton, James Loney, A.J. Ellis and Chad Billingsley. Of Martin, White said, “I wanted the scouts to look for guys we could convert to catch. I asked one of my big questions, ‘Is there anybody that’s playing second or short, third, good feet, good hands, we can convert?’ The area scout was Clarence Johns and the East Coast supervisor was John Barr, who’s now with the Giants as their scouting director. They both were at a game and Russ was messing around in the outfield or the bullpen, catching somebody. Just playing, not really in gear or anything. And they said, ‘Hey, you know what? We think this guy would be perfect.’ So we intentionally drafted him to convert him. The rest is history.”
  • Jason Martinez profiled prospects from the Yankees, A’s, Astros, Pirates and Phillies in the latest entry in his Knocking Down The Door series.
  • Connor Byrne looked at Marlins outfielder Christian Yelich’s trade candidacy.
  • Our new Taking Inventory series lists potential trade candidates from teams who look like they could become sellers at this year’s deadline. First up in the series this week were the Phillies (by Steve Adams) and the Pirates (by myself).

Taking Inventory: Pittsburgh Pirates

By | at

MLBTR is launching a new summer series entitled Taking Inventory, in which we’ll preview the potential trade chips that could become available on a number of likely and borderline selling clubs throughout the league.

Heading into the 2017 season, the Pirates looked like a potential contender, as it wasn’t hard to imagine scenarios in which Andrew McCutchen and Gerrit Cole bounced back, Jameson Taillon built on a strong rookie season, Josh Bell and Tyler Glasnow emerged as solid contributors and an offensive core built around McCutchen, Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco gave pitchers fits. Not much of that has happened, though, and the Bucs have also dealt with Jung Ho Kang’s visa limbo, Taillon’s unexpected testicular cancer diagnosis and Marte’s PED suspension. They’re now 26-35. While there might still be an outside shot they’ll contend, since no other club has yet run away with the NL Central, it looks increasingly likely they’ll consider selling as the summer progresses. If they do, here’s what they’ll have to offer.

Rentals

Tony Watson, LHP (reliever) | Salary: $5.6MM

Watson at one point might have been a good trade chip, but the Pirates recently bumped him from the closer role, and he’s posted a 6.00 ERA since the start of May. Watson is still left-handed, can touch the mid-90s, and has a good overall track record, however, so there’s still a chance a team could part with a real prospect to get him, particularly if he can reemerge over the next six weeks. He did pitch a scoreless inning yesterday against the Marlins, which is perhaps a good sign.

Juan Nicasio, RHP (reliever) | Salary: $3.65MM

The hard-throwing Nicasio appears to have finally settled in as a key contributor to the Pirates’ bullpen this season, posting a 1.35 ERA, 8.4 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9. That low ERA probably unsustainable, but he’s a good bet to continue to be successful. A team could also conceivably use him as a starter, but since he’s almost completely scrapped his changeup and tends to fare better as a reliever, it’s likely teams will pursue him as a bullpen asset. He could further boost his stock by pitching well in any save chances he gets in the wake of Watson’s demotion from the closer role.

Antonio Bastardo, LHP (reliever) | Salary: $6.5MM

Bastardo is currently on the DL with a quad strain (though he’s close to a return) and pitched miserably in April (allowing 12 runs and six walks in 6 2/3 innings). One team, the Mets, has already essentially dumped his contract when they shipped him to Pittsburgh for Jon Niese at last August’s non-waiver deadline. It’s unlikely Bastardo will have much value this summer, although he’s perhaps worth watching as a possible addition to the lefty reliever trade market if he returns and pitches reasonably before then.

John Jaso, 1B/OF | Salary: $4MM

Jaso boasts a good eye at the plate and has gamely attempted to be versatile in the field. Unfortunately, his abilities to hit for contact and power seem to be fading (he’s batting just .236 this season and has only three homers in 140 plate appearances), and he isn’t really an outfielder. He might attract limited interest from a team interested in a veteran left-handed bat off the bench.

Controlled Through 2018

Andrew McCutchen, OF | Salary: $14MM

McCutchen has a team option for 2018 worth $14.5MM, with a $1M buyout. The former MVP once appeared to be a significant trade asset, of course; even after a down 2017 season, the Pirates appeared last winter to be on the verge of trading him to the Nationals for a package that included Lucas Giolito and Dane Dunning. McCutchen’s even worse hitting performance in 2017 (.237/.319/.411), though, makes his mediocre 2016 season look like less of an anomaly, leading to questions about whether the Pirates would even exercise his option if they were to keep him beyond this summer. McCutchen seems to have gotten back on the right track in the past few weeks, batting .350/.449/.525 over the past 14 days. Another month or so of that kind of hitting would go a long way toward solidifying his market.

Daniel Hudson, RHP (reliever) | Salary: $5.5MM

Hudson is also under contract for 2018 at $5.5MM. He has not pitched well in 2017 (5.33 ERA, 8.2 K/9, 3.9 BB/9, although he’s fared decently since a five-run blowup against Miami in late April), and the Pirates, who believe in their ability to boost the stock of struggling pitchers, might be inclined to keep him and hope he benefits from their coaching.

Wade LeBlanc, LHP (reliever) | Salary: $750K

LeBlanc has a $1.25MM option or a $50K buyout for 2018. He has fared reasonably well this year (3.89 ERA, 7.5 K/9, 1.7 BB/9 over 37 innings), although he wouldn’t be an exciting pickup, given his modest pedigree and limited velocity. He could still attract interest from a team in need of a reliever capable of pitching multiple-inning stretches, although he would continue to be useful for the Pirates thanks to that ability, particularly if they were to trade other pitchers.

Jordy Mercer, SS | Salary: $4.325MM

Mercer has been a steady but unspectacular regular shortstop throughout his career and would have only modest trade value despite a solid .347 OBP this season. Particularly with Kang still on the restricted list, the Pirates don’t yet have an obvious replacement for Mercer. They might therefore be inclined to keep him.

Chris Stewart, C | Salary: $1.4MM

Stewart also has a $1.5MM option or a $250K buyout for 2018. The backup is currently on the DL and would have very limited trade value even if he were healthy.

Longer-Term Assets

Righty Gerrit Cole is controllable through 2019 through the arbitration process. Connor Byrne recently examined Cole’s trade candidacy, noting that the problem with Cole as a trade asset is that he hasn’t pitched well recently — he’s given up a total of 23 runs over his last four starts. The Astros have reportedly had interest in Cole, and they’d surely join a long list of teams making calls about Cole should be the Bucs make him available (which they reportedly haven’t). The Pirates, though, might be reluctant to part with him given the years of control they have remaining and the possibility that they could be selling low. Of course, teams might be willing to pay high prices for him anyway, given his stuff, solid peripherals (7.8 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 45.7 GB%) and unsustainably high home-run rate. Cole could be an interesting player to watch as the summer unfolds.

Other longer-term assets who could potentially come up in trade discussions include Ivan Nova (controllable through 2019), Francisco Cervelli (2019), David Freese (2019) and Josh Harrison (2020). None of those players seem terribly likely to be traded, although it’s possible to imagine Cervelli or Freese heading elsewhere under certain circumstances. Cervelli is currently on the 7-day concussion DL, and youngster Elias Diaz has hit well in limited opportunities. Perhaps Cervelli could be dealt should the Pirates choose to rebuild more aggressively than it currently appears they will. Freese has batted .273/.376/.432 this season and would undoubtedly be an attractive trade candidate, although with Kang out, the Bucs can certainly still use him.

Show all

MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

Do not Sell or Share My Personal Information

hide arrows scroll to top