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Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto On Mark Trumbo Trade

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On Wednesday, Jerry Dipoto traded slugger Mark Trumbo for the second time.  As the GM of the Angels, Dipoto jettisoned Trumbo in December 2013, soon after signing superstar first baseman Albert Pujols.  After dealing Trumbo roughly two months after taking over in Seattle, Dipoto wants it known that it’s nothing personal with Trumbo, just business.

“There’s no particular reason for it.  When I called him, I actually told him not to take this the wrong way,” Dipoto said when asked by MLBTR on a conference call.  “He’s a great guy, he brings a lot of skill to the table and it’s always difficult to trade right-handed power, but there are reasons for everything.  The first time that I moved him, we needed pitching and we tapped into two young upside starters (Tyler Skaggs, Hector Santiago) that we needed at the time.  I felt good about that trade and I feel good about this one, too.  In this case, we’re bringing in a backup left-handed hitting catcher along with payroll and roster flexibility as we move into the hot stove portion of the offseason.  I explained all of this to Mark.  He’s going to an ideal place to hit but it just wasn’t an ideal fit for us on our side.”

As many outsiders picked up on, Dipoto indicated that Trumbo was moved in large part because of his projected $9.1MM salary for 2016.  Unlike the last Trumbo trade, Dipoto isn’t moving Trumbo in order to eliminate redundancy in the lineup, and Dipoto himself isn’t sure how the first base position will be filled.  Still, I asked the GM whether he would be more likely to fill that spot via free agency or trade.

“It’s tough to say.  There’s still a lot of time between now and Opening Day.  We’ve discussed a lot of trade candidates with various teams around the league and we’ve at least surveyed the free agent pool, but have not engaged [any available first basemen] at this point,” Dipoto said.

Of course, this year’s free agent crop includes Chris Davis, the man that Trumbo might wind up replacing in Baltimore.  Dipoto’s comment would indicate that the Mariners have not reached out to Davis, though — as MLBTR’s Steve Adams noted this week — he may not be a logical match for Seattle anyway.  Dipoto has made it known that he prefers the trade market to free agency and, as he revealed, that has been the only avenue explored thus far for first basemen.  Seattle would also have to sacrifice the No. 11 overall pick to sign Davis, a player who could command a six-year, $144MM deal in the estimation of MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes.

Meanwhile, Dipoto seemed genuinely excited about the addition of catcher Steve Clevenger as a complementary piece that can fit in as a catcher, first baseman, or a designated hitter.  Dipoto stopped short of guaranteeing anything for the out-of-options player, but it sounds like he has a role in mind for him.  Clevenger’s versatility coupled with the signing of catcher Chris Iannetta also gives Seattle options when it comes to Mike Zunino.  Seattle can now afford to let Zunino start the year in Triple-A Tacoma, but they could also carry all three players with Clevenger seeing time at first base.  Still, Dipoto’s plan and preference is to have Zunino begin the year in Triple-A for additional seasoning.

Free Agent Profile: Zack Greinke

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After exercising an opt-out clause in his previous six-year, $147MM contract and leaving a guaranteed $71MM on the table, Zack Greinke is poised to secure more than double that amount as one of the top free agents of the 2015-16 offseason.

Strengths/Pros

Greinke is coming off a season for the ages. The right-hander’s 1.66 ERA is the lowest single-season mark for a qualified starting pitcher since Greg Maddux’s 1.63 ERA back in 1995. Greinke doesn’t play in the offensive environment that we saw in the late 90s and early 2000s, but the lowest ERA in two decades is nonetheless incredible, and his ERA+ (which adjusts for both park and league, with 100 being average) rates him a staggering 125 percent better than a league-average pitcher in 2015.

Oct 10, 2015; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Zack Greinke (21) delivers a pitch during game two of the NLDS against the New York Mets at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Greinke isn’t some one-year wonder, though. He’s a former Cy Young winner (American League, 2009) with a longstanding history as an ace that is coming off a three-year platform with the Dodgers which featured a 2.30 ERA, 8.3 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 in 602 2/3 innings. I’m not a big subscriber to the importance of postseason stats over regular season stats, but even if you find it critical, Greinke’s work with the Dodgers checks all the right boxes. He’s been to three straight postseasons with L.A. and worked to a 2.38 ERA with a 41-to-5 K/BB ratio in 41 2/3 innings.

While Greinke isn’t as young as most free-agent starters (more on that later), there’s a belief among scouts that he’ll age better than most pitchers because he’s not overly reliant on velocity and because he’s among the most cerebral pitchers in the game. As ESPN’s Keith Law wrote (Insider subscription required and recommended) when ranking Greinke second among free agents this season, “Greinke’s command, control and understanding of how to set up hitters are all at or near the top of the sport, and as much as long-term deals for any pitcher frighten me, I’d probably give Greinke whatever number of years he wants.” Law’s colleague, Jerry Crasnick, polled a number of execs and scouts in the early stages of the offseason, and 19 of the 34 respondents preferred Greinke to David Price, with one scout calling Greinke the closest thing this generation has to Maddux and another saying he’ll age more gracefully than Price (which wasn’t to say Price will age poorly, but rather that Greinke will age abnormally well).

Greinke’s velocity has dipped from its peak of a 94 mph average in 2007, but he still averages a solid 91.8 mph on his heater, and as the velocity has declined, he’s improved in other areas. When he was throwing his hardest, Greinke averaged nearly 2.5 walks per nine innings, but he’s averaged just 1.9 walks per nine since his fastball dipped below an average of 92 mph. He’s become much more of a ground-ball pitcher later in his career as well; Greinke recorded a 40 percent ground-ball rate when he won the Cy Young in 2009 but was at 48 percent in 2015 and has averaged a 47.9 percent rate over the past four seasons. Per Fangraphs, he induced the seventh-most weak contact of any qualified starter in baseball this season.

National League clubs will love the fact that Greinke is a career .220/.261/.337 hitter and that he batted .224/.232/.343 with a pair of homers in 2015. Relative to the rest of the league, of course, those numbers are abysmal, but one also has to keep in mind that the average pitcher batted .131/.158/.168 in 2015. Greinke is a considerably more difficult out at the plate than most pitchers, and he’ll probably chip in a homer or two over the course of a full season.

Weaknesses/Cons

The list of weaknesses for a pitcher coming off the fourth-best ERA in the past 30 years is going to be relatively short, but Greinke’s most significant roadblock to a record contract is his age. Greinke’s velocity has indeed declined in recent seasons, and while the belief that he has the intelligence to succeed with diminished stuff almost certainly has some merit, one still has to assume some form of decline in performance as his repertoire deteriorates.

The other con for teams in the Greinke sweepstakes is that they’re paying for his services as he comes off an almost assuredly unrepeatable season. Greinke benefited from a .229 batting average on balls in play and an 86.5 percent strand rate — both of which were considerably better than the league norm and enormous outliers when compared to his career body of work. Greinke isn’t a consistent 1.66 ERA pitcher (no starter is), but his camp can use the historic season as leverage all the same. It’s been obvious that Greinke would opt out of his contract, barring injury, for more than a year. But, if he’d had a more characteristic season (say a 2.75 ERA in 210 innings) or even a bit of a down year relative to his first two in Los Angeles (3.30 ERA in 200 innings), we’d probably be talking more in the $120-140MM range.

The other con working against Greinke is that he rejected a qualifying offer and will cost a draft pick.

Market

Greinke will reportedly choose between the Dodgers and the Giants this week, with an average annual value topping David Price’s $31MM said to be attainable on a five- and possibly six-year deal.

While those are the two teams most heavily connected to Greinke, it’s not out of the question that a well-funded dark horse could sweep in at the last minute. The Red Sox and Tigers have already made their big free-agent splashes, but the Cardinals reportedly finished as a runner-up to the Sox in the pursuit of Price. Knowing that they were willing to spend at that level on a similarly regarded free agent, it’s at least conceivable that they could make a late entry into the Greinke market.

Of course, St. Louis hasn’t been tied recently to Greinke. Neither, really, have other clubs with significant spending capacity and theoretically plausible interest — such as the Yankees and Cubs, or even the Angels and Nationals. But the Cards operated quietly on Price, and it’s still possible there’s a lurking mystery team that could make a serious run at the new top free agent starter.

Expected Contract

Were Greinke heading into his age-30 or even age-31 season like most of his peers, he’d be in line to challenge Price’s new record-setting contract of $217MM.

Recent contracts of five-plus years for pitchers like Price, Scherzer, Jon Lester, Cliff Lee and CC Sabathia have seen the guaranteed portion of the contract end with a player’s age-35 or age-36 season. The same was true of Justin Verlander’s extension, which runs through age 36. Even Roy Halladay’s three-year, $60MM extension with the Phillies prior to the 2011 season ended in his age-36 campaign.

The challenge for Greinke and agent Casey Close of Excel Sports will be getting a team to commit to him into his age-37. If that happens, Greinke can approach $200MM, even though he’ll probably still fall shy of it. Nonetheless, he’s poised to land a free-agent contract that has, to this point, only ever been exceeded by the likes of Scherzer and Price.

The fact that the two chief suitors for Greinke are division rivals works out incredibly well for Greinke’s camp. Whatever value the Dodgers or Giants place on Greinke (let’s say five to six wins per season), they have to consider that not only are they adding those wins to their total by signing Greinke — they’re preventing their top competitor from doing so in the process. It can be argued that no team is hurt more by the Dodgers signing Greinke than the Giants, and vice versa. That factor may have substantially driven up the bidding already.

MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes projected a six-year, $156MM contract back in early November, but considering what we’ve learned in recent days, a six-year, $189MM contract seems attainable.

Profiling Possible Top Rule 5 Picks

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After finishing with the worst record in baseball, the Phillies will pick first in the upcoming Rule 5 draft.  The draft, set to be held on December 10th, is the final activity of the Winter Meetings. Teams have a chance to select players from rival franchises with a main rules:

  • Any player on the 40-man roster is protected
  • Players signed at age 19 or older are protected for four seasons
  • Players signed at age 18 or older are protected for five seasons

If none of those conditions apply to a player, then he may be selected in the draft. Draft picks cost $50K and the drafting team must keep a player on the major league roster for the entire season in order to retain him. Injured players must spend at least 90 active days on the roster.

If a team decides not to fulfill these conditions, the former club can reacquire the player for $25K. Sometimes, the team refuses to pay the fee, as was the case when the Phillies selected Shane Victorino from the Dodgers. There is also a minor league portion of the draft with slightly different rules and requirements. For the scope of this post, we’ll focus on the major league portion.

The Phillies and the Rule 5 Draft

The Phillies are one of the most successful teams in the Rule 5 draft in recent years. Dating back to 2009, they’ve made the following picks: David Herndon (2009), Michael Martinez (2010), Ender Inciarte (2012), Kevin Munson (2013), Odubel Herrera (2014), and Andy Oliver (2014).

Herndon, Martinez, and Herrera were the most successful of those picks with Herrera looking like a building block for Philadelphia. Many of you will recognize Inciarte, an able outfielder for the Diamondbacks. The Phillies failed to keep him on the active roster for a season and had to return him.

Teams generally select players who fit one of these profiles:

  • Left-handed relievers
  • Hard throwing, wild pitching prospects
  • Back-up catchers
  • Polished hitters with uncertain defense
  • Athletic, raw position players

Herrera, along with fellow successful pick Delino DeShields (Rangers), fell into the latter category. The toolsy athletes are probably the riskiest bucket to pick, but they also come with the highest upside.

In full rebuild mode, it’s my opinion that the Phillies will benefit most from an aggressive pick at first overall. Rather than playing the relief market, I expect them to target a possible starting left fielder.  Herrera and Aaron Altherr are the only two starting outfielders on the roster. Both are exciting young players who emerged during the 2015 season. Both also come with risk. The Phillies will want to build redundancy.

Other options on the 40-man roster include Cody Asche, Darnell Sweeney, and Roman Quinn. Asche and Sweeney are penciled in as the left field platoon, but that’s not how the team will enter Spring Training. Quinn is not yet major league ready. Given the internal options, there is room to give a Rule 5 pick a long look in left field.

The 40-man roster currently stands at 37, meaning the club could pick up to three players if it chooses. Rarely do teams take more than two, but the Phillies might be the exception. The bullpen is a work in progress, and there are enough interesting relievers to give two a look after picking an outfielder.

The Candidates

We recently cited J.J Cooper of Baseball America’s list of Rule 5 names to remember. Of those, five stand out as first pick material to me. This is not to say that the Phillies scouts won’t fall in love with another player or decide to go with a pitcher. But these are my best guesses to go first overall in the draft.

Jabari Blash, OF, SEA

This is the second time Blash, 26, is eligible for the draft. The Mariners left him unprotected last year, and he went unpicked. That’s unlikely to happen this year after he blasted 32 home runs between Double- and Triple-A.  It wasn’t a matter of dominating the weaker opponents either. After a BABIP-fueled outburst in Double-A, the righty finished with 22 home runs in 228 plate appearances in Triple-A. His BABIP actually fell to .263, yet he still posted a strong .264/.355/.640 line.

Pros: Power, athleticism, a high walk rate, upper-minors success, and plus defense.

Cons: A big whiff rate that could get out of hand in the majors.

Tyler Goeddel, OF, TBR

Cooper describes Goeddel, 23, as one of the most polished hitters in the draft. The right-handed hitter is eligible for the first time after hitting .279./350/.433 over 533 plate appearances at Double-A. He’s a well-rounded asset with some power (12 home runs) and speed (28 stolen bases).

Pros: Athleticism, youth, plate discipline, plus defense, power, and speed.

Cons: Yet to reach Triple-A.

Jake Cave, OF, NYY

Entering his age 23 season, Cave is still relatively young like Goeddel. He was once thought to possess upside similar to Jacoby Ellsbury, but injuries and time have sapped his speed. The lefty is viewed as an ideal fourth outfielder with some latent power, decent wheels, and the ability to do a passable job in center field. He hit .269/.330/.345 in 563 Double-A plate appearances. He received a brief, successful trial in Triple-A too.

Pros: Can play all three outfield spots, decent contact skills and plate discipline

Cons: More of a fourth outfielder

Zach Borenstein, OF/1B, ARI

Borenstein, 24, is a left-handed power prospect who has lost some steam. He performed well at Double-A last season with a BABIP-fueled .314/.394/.511 line in 327 plate appearances. He was miserable in a 53 plate appearance try in Triple-A. A questionable defender, Borenstein may be a better candidate for the Phillies second pick.

Pros: History of power, strong plate discipline once he adapts to a level

Cons: Iffy Triple-A track record, game power was best in 2013

Balbino Fuenmayor, 1B, KAN

Now there’s an 80-grade baseball name. As you might expect, Fuenmayor is a right-handed, aggressive power hitter. The 26-year-old is recovering from a torn ACL.

When healthy, Fuenmayor hit  .354/.386/.591 with 15 home runs in 308 Double-A plate appearances. He also had a small sample of success in Triple-A. Unlike the others listed here, he’s a first baseman if not a designated hitter. The Phillies have two of those – Ryan Howard and Darin Ruf. They might be willing to try another.

Pros: Excellent half season in 2015, power and contact skills

Cons: Aggressive, questionable defender

My best guess

I expect the Phillies to select Goeddel or Blash first overall. Both are candidates to step in and perform at a high level much like Herrera did last season. At the very least, they’ll offer plus defense. Their multi-faceted skill sets should ensure other means of production too. Goeddel is probably the safer of the two options, and I like that he’s younger too.

Remember, these picks can be traded. There’s nothing stopping the Phillies from taking a shot on both athletes. They’re liable to match the production of Sweeney who can be optioned. Asche is viewed as a trade candidate. The trade route would also give the club the option of evaluating two players during the spring and picking their favorite. It’s probably an unlikely path, but it’s an open option.

MLBTR Originals

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A look back at the original reporting and analysis found on MLBTR the last seven days:

  • After catching up on the league’s pre-Thanksgiving Day trades and signings, host Jeff Todd welcomed veteran left-hander Wade LeBlanc on the latest edition of the MLB Trade Rumors podcast.  A new episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is released every Thursday and can be accessed on iTunes, SoundCloud, and Stitcher.
  • MLBTR’s Brad Johnson ran down some of the best fits for free agent Jason Heyward.  In a poll with readers, more than 21% of you said that the Cardinals would wind up inking the outfielder.  The Angels and Yankees also got a significant share of the pie.
  • The MLB deadline to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players is coming up on Wednesday and Pedro Alvarez of the Pirates is one of the more notable non-tender candidates out there.  Charlie Wilmoth examined the pros and cons of letting Alvarez go.  The Bucs could also retain Alvarez at his projected $8.1MM salary and try to move him later, but that would be something of a risk for Pittsburgh given their budgetary constraints.
  • The Blue Jays’ five-year, $65MM extension for Jose Bautista back in 2010 was widely panned, but years later, it turned out to be a savvy deal by then-GM Alex Anthopoulos.  Now, it’s time for Toronto to consider another extension for the slugger, as Mark Polishuk writes.  Bautista is still hitting at an elite level as he enters his age-35 season, and thus he doesn’t really have any comparables among past players with at least 6 years of service time who signed multi-year extensions.  It’s hard to peg his value, but Mark envisions a four-year deal in the range of $80-$100MM for Bautista since that’s likely what he would get if he were a free agent this offseason.
  • The Mets are hardly assured a return trip to the World Series in 2016, but they’re as well situated as any for another run, Jeff writes.  Jeff ran down some of the Mets’ options to get back to the top, including scenarios involving their stellar pitching.
  • Recently, MLB Trade Rumors launched a brand new official Instagram account:@TradeRumorsMLB.  Each day, we’re€™ sharing conversation-inspiring images about the hottest topics in baseball.  From there, we invite you to give us a like, weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section, and even share the link with a friend.  So, what are you waiting for?  If you don’€™t have an Instagram account, this is the perfect excuse to sign up and get one.  Follow us on Instagram today!
  • In the latest edition of the MLBTR Mailbag, Steve Adams fielded questions on Trevor Plouffe, Brandon Belt, Darren O’Day, and more.
  • The Dodgers’ new-look front office has done a lot of wheeling and dealing already, but there’s more to come as it continues to overhaul the league’s most expensive roster, Jeff writes.  Jeff looked at the many paths the unpredictable Andrew Friedman could take this offseason, including a major shakeup in the outfield.

The Best Suitors For Jason Heyward?

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Free agency has progressed slowly this winter. Some of the biggest signings to date have been starting pitchers with late-season breakouts (Rich Hill, J.A. Happ). The markets for several of the flashiest names available have yet to develop, and that’s especially true of Jason Heyward.

The Angels have been mentioned once on these pages as a possible match. Earlier this week, Jon Morosi of FOX Sports said the Angels “aren’t ruling out a pursuit.” So that’s maybe, possibly one public suitor.

Every other Heyward rumor relates to his former Cardinals. While he fits their playing style to a T, Heyward isn’t exactly needed. The St. Louis roster features veterans Matt Holliday and Brandon Moss. Randal Grichuk is an exciting young center fielder with big power and plus defense. Stephen Piscotty made a successful late season debut. Some combination of Peter Bourjos, Jon Jay, and Tommy Pham can fill in the cracks.

Sure, Heyward is an improvement over some of those options, but is his production enough to justify the $200MM investment predicted by MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes? I don’t think so. The team does have a need in the rotation with Lance Lynn out for the season and top prospect Alex Reyes suspended 50 games for marijuana use. It might be smart to use monetary resources on pitching.

In his free agent profile, Jeff Todd agreed with Dierkes 10-year, $200MM valuation, saying “It’s hard to put Heyward in the same production bracket as Robinson Cano (ten years, $240MM), and you could argue that he’s not as valuable a free agent as Prince Fielder (nine years, $214MM), depending upon how one values defense and baserunning.” Then again, you can also argue that Heyward, 26, offers more future value than Cano or Fielder did at the time of their signings. When they inked their respective deals, Cano was entering his age 31 season while Fielder was set to turn 28.

It used to be that $200MM really limited a player’s market to just a few teams. In today’s cash rich environment, any team can compete for a top free agent. While it wasn’t a free agent signing, the always penurious Marlins actually own the richest contract in major league history (Giancarlo Stanton). Heyward, therefore, is a relatively affordable, young asset. Clearly, his market won’t be constrained to a team that doesn’t need him and another that isn’t “ruling out a pursuit.”

MLB.com’s Dan O’Dowd offers two more alternatives – the Dodgers and Orioles. His justifications? The Dodgers have the cash, and Heyward would add athleticism over incumbent Andre Ethier. With the Orioles, a run at Heyward would likely depend upon the club falling short on re-signing Chris Davis. O’Dowd also likes how Heyward would fit into the Angels lineup.

Let’s explore some other possible fits for Heyward.

The Yankees are always a safe bet to be involved with a player like Heyward. They’re said to be shopping Brett Gardner, possibly to make room for a Heyward pursuit. His left-handed bat and athleticism in the outfield would play awfully well at Yankee Stadium.

New York’s rivals, the Red Sox, are a dark horse candidate. The club is much more fixated on pitching, and they’re currently rich in outfielders. If their pursuit of David Price goes sideways, Boston could try to use some of their outfield depth to acquire star pitching. The would open a role for Heyward.

After attempting to contend in 2015, it’s hard to gauge the White Sox plans. They’ll try again to build around Chris Sale and Jose Abreu, but will they commit more resources to the effort? Across town, the Cubs could benefit from an OBP oriented veteran like Heyward to help support the various young phenoms. They’re supposedly more focused on pitching.

The Phillies could technically afford to sign Heyward. Their only payroll commitment beyond 2017 is a $2MM buyout on Matt Harrison. With their ability to financially bully the other NL East clubs, I expect Philadelphia to rebound quickly from their current nightmare. But this offseason might be one too soon for a forward thinking free agent signing of this magnitude. And it might be difficult to convince Heyward to ink with a rebuilding club.

The Mariners and Giants are the other two clubs I could foresee entering the bidding. Seattle is keen to become more athletic under new GM Jerry Dipoto. After signing Cano and Nelson Cruz in recent offseasons, I’m not sure they could stomach the price tag.

San Francisco is a rich market club that likes to play quietly in free agency. The team has plenty of outfielders, but only Hunter Pence stands out as name brand talent.

So where do you think Heyward will land? Is it one of these teams or somebody completely off the radar?

Which Team Will Sign Jason Heyward?
Cardinals 21.71% (4,305 votes)
Angels 17.01% (3,374 votes)
Yankees 15.84% (3,142 votes)
Cubs 8.16% (1,618 votes)
Giants 7.43% (1,474 votes)
Dodgers 5.98% (1,186 votes)
Other 5.97% (1,185 votes)
Mariners 5.15% (1,021 votes)
Red Sox 3.49% (692 votes)
Orioles 3.43% (681 votes)
Phillies 3.06% (607 votes)
White Sox 2.76% (548 votes)
Total Votes: 19,833

Offseason Outlook: New York Mets

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The Mets surprised in 2015, taking a weak NL East over a disappointing Nationals club and then streaking all the way to the World Series. Getting back is hardly assured, but the organization is as well situated as any for another run.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligibles (projections via MLB Trade Rumors)

Options

  • None

Free Agents

It all starts with the rotation for GM Sandy Alderson and newly-extended skipper Terry Collins. The youth, talent, and recent track record of the arms assembled — high-performing youngsters Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard, and Steven Matz; veteran Jon Niese; and a recovering Zach Wheeler — suggests that the unit could be special.

If there’s a question about that staff, it’s probably whether last year’s workload will impact next year’s health and effectiveness. Harvey drew most of the headlines in that regard, throwing a career-high 216 innings (including the post-season) in his first season back from Tommy John surgery. But deGrom (+37 1/3 innings) and especially Syndergaard (+65 2/3) went well over their largest prior single-season innings tally. And all the pitchers will be looking to bounce back from a shortened layoff after a deep postseason run.

Sep 26, 2014; New York, NY, USA; New York Mets general manager Sandy Alderson on the field with mascot Mr. Met before a game against the Houston Astros at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

That concern will likely motivate the organization to maintain depth. But the club has already shown at least some willingness to move arms when the need arose: Wheeler was set to be shipped out in the failed Carlos Gomez deal, while Michael Fulmer was one of several young pitchers that ultimately were traded over the summer.

And we’ve yet to see any indication that the organization is lining up for a significant payroll increase. Last year, the Mets topped $100MM on Opening Day for the first time since 2011, and there’s probably about $80MM already committed to 2016. There’s less on the books down the line, but a host of outstanding players will be reaching arbitration eligibility and (hopefully) commanding big raises.

It remains interesting to consider, then, whether any pitching assets could be cashed in to facilitate upgrades elsewhere. The most obvious candidate, perhaps, is Niese, whose salary could be re-allocated. But that would remove a layer of security and could require the signing of a swingman type to provide depth. Bartolo Colon has done enough to command a rotation spot, and he won’t likely be cheap, but he’ll be available for a short-term commitment and a return hasn’t been ruled out.

There are some recently-injured arms to consider, too. Youngster Rafael Montero might also be somewhat expendable and would represent a useful trade chip — if he can show that he’s back to full health. It may be less likely at this point, but Wheeler could still be used to help the Mets fill a hole elsewhere. He has the youth, contract control, and upside to be a major piece for a significant addition, though the risk of his Tommy John recovery holds down his value.

The most intriguing, but least likely, scenario involves the four young pitchers who are slated for the 2016 rotation. They’re all huge assets that are valued as such by the Mets. We’ve heard no indication that a trade is a serious consideration, and it’s impossible to imagine a deal at this point that didn’t involve a high-end, controllable young player who could slot right into the New York lineup at a position of need. Matz is arguably the most susceptible to a trade, if only because he’s less established, but there’s a reasonable argument to be made that the club should cash in Harvey now.

One alternative to trading arms is to double down with an extension. Harvey is the closest to free agency, but the Boras client seems unlikely to forgo free agency (thus increasing the appeal of the trade concept). Syndergaard appears worthy of long-term consideration, but both he and the team may want to let things play out a bit more before committing. That leaves deGrom as the candidate who makes the most sense on paper. He wouldn’t be the first 1+ service-time pitcher to sign an extension, as Ricky Romero, Julio Teheran, and Madison Bumgarner have already set a market. It seems likely that the Mets would need to beat Bumgarner’s record $35MM guarantee for a 1+ arm — and not by a little bit — to get something done. Not only has deGrom been unbelievably good (2.61 ERA), he’s also a solid Super Two candidate (1.139 years of service). While deGrom is relatively old at 27, Bumgarner’s pre-2012 contract is rather out of date given the still-rising cost of pitching.

The biggest pitching needs for the Mets probably come in the bullpen. Jeurys Familia turned into a late-inning monster last year, but he has racked up 155 1/3 innings over the last two regular seasons and threw another 14 2/3 in the postseason. He’d probably be pairing with Jenrry Mejia in the late innings, but that talented right-hander could be headed for a non-tender after twice being busted for PEDs. (Either way, he’ll miss about half of 2016 to serve his suspension.) The club does have another set-up option in Addison Reed, who showed a nice turnaround after coming to New York last summer. He’ll be expensive thanks to his steep arbitration starting point, but indications are that the Mets will tender Reed a contract.

Another late-inning righty might be nice, though Hansel Robles had a very nice rookie campaign and Carlos Torres could bounce back from a rough 2015. But left-handed relief is the bigger need. Sean Gilmartin was a nice surprise as a Rule 5 pick-up, and he’ll take one spot. The resurgent Josh Smoker joins Dario Alvarez as 40-man southpaw options, Josh Edgin could return later in the year from Tommy John surgery, and a reunion with injured hurler Jerry Blevins is said to be a consideration. But there’s every reason for the club to pursue a reliable lefty arm. There are several free agents that could fit the bill, led by Antonio Bastardo and Tony Sipp.

Any money spent in the pen, though, would likely reduce the free cash that could be used to pursue upgrades elsewhere. While the club doesn’t have any gaping voids in its lineup, there are certainly areas that could use improvement — especially for an organization that is looking to seize a rare window in which it enjoys cheap and outstanding starting pitching.

When the Mets locked up Juan Lagares last winter, they surely expected he’d be an every day option in center. But that’s now in question, leaving the team weighing a left-handed-hitting complement — if not something more. A player like Will Venable could make sense as a fourth outfielder. If the club wants to add someone for more regular duty, it could be well-positioned to seek value (and take on some health risk) in Denard Span or to swing a trade for Ben Revere of the Blue Jays, Ender Inciarte of the D’backs, or Charlie Blackmon of the Rockies. Free agent Gerardo Parra might stand as a middle-ground option who could function more as a traditional fourth outfielder or take near-regular reps, as circumstances dictate.

Of course, it’s also still at least conceivable that the club could look to shake things up further. The clamor to bring back Yoenis Cespedes seems to have died down. (A return never seemed terribly plausible anyway.) But there are other possibilities. The very top of the market is probably out of reach, but if New York is willing to relegate Lagares to a pure fourth outfielder role, then Dexter Fowler could be a match. (Unlike Span, the switch-hitting Fowler — who hits lefties better than righties — doesn’t make for a natural platoon pairing.) And there’s always the possibility of dealing Lagares, who could hold appeal to teams that believe in him and have a need up the middle. Dealing Lagares after an off year is probably not the optimal scenario from a long-term value perspective, but the Mets’ surprising World Series run has changed the calculus somewhat.

Whoever is added could also see some time in the corners, where Curtis Granderson is aging and Michael Conforto is still not fully established despite a very promising partial season debut. Michael Cuddyer is also still a factor in the outfield, of course, though one wonders whether he’ll need to find more of his time at first base, as an interleague DH, and as a bench bat. Lucas Duda will be expected to continue handling the lion’s share of the time at first, but Cuddyer presents a good option to spell him when southpaws take the hill.

The major complication in the corner infield is David Wright. Some have wondered whether he’ll continue to be a viable defensive option at third with his throws visibly hampered by his back issues. It may be too soon to pull the plug on Wright’s days at third, but he could ultimately follow the path of Ryan Zimmerman of moving across the diamond in the midst of a major extension. At the very least, the Mets need to have some contingency plan in place in the event that Wright’s rather serious back issues cause problems once again.

Wright’s situation only adds to the intrigue up the middle. There’s no shortage of options, but there’s little in the way of certainty. Once-maligned, now heroic shortstop Ruben Tejada may be non-tendered after his bad-luck broken leg in the post-season. Trade deadline redemption man Wilmer Flores was moved off that position late in the year and seems to profile better at second or third. Top shortstop prospect Amed Rosario only just turned 20 and still needs to conquer the upper minors, but Gavin Cecchini and Matt Reynolds are close and ready, respectively. Another highly-regarded youngster, Dilson Herrera, didn’t light the world on fire in his first big league stint but is line for another chance. And Eric Campbell and Danny Muno could factor at second (or, if needed, third).

Given that array of options, there are several approaches that the front office could consider. Holding pat, certainly, is one. Signing Ben Zobrist or even bringing back Daniel Murphy would provide an immediate option at second and/or third, but both free agents are expected to command $12MM or more annually over reasonably lengthy terms. Adding a second baseman, moreover, would likely leave the team with some combination of Flores and Reynolds at short while blocking Herrera. The shortstop market also offers possibilities. Ian Desmond is the biggest (and most expensive) name, but veteran stopgaps like Alexei Ramirez and Jimmy Rollins could also make some sense.

It’s also worth wondering whether the Mets could consider trading from its stockpile of middle infielders — especially if a veteran is brought in. We already know that New York is willing to part with Flores, at least in certain circumstances, since he would’ve been the other key piece (with Wheeler) in the nearly-completed Gomez deal. The younger players listed above hold varying degrees of appeal, and one could conceivably be cashed in — possibly in concert with other pieces — to add anything from an established bullpen arm to a center field-capable outfielder.

There’s another area of some depth that could provide Alderson with a trade chip: the catching position. Travis d’Arnaud seems to have cemented himself as the starter heading into 2016 after battling through injury to slash .268/.340/.485 last season. Both d’Arnaud and Kevin Plawecki drew strong defensive ratings last year, but the latter player — a younger, less experienced option who was pressed into big league duty — didn’t quite prove up to the task. Plawecki, though, still has plenty of promise and trade value, and New York could always rely on Johnny Monell and/or a veteran addition to serve as a reserve option behind d’Arnaud.

Financial constraints still limit the Mets’ maneuverability, and it’s fair for fans of the club to wonder when those restrictions will truly be loosened. (And also to dream on what kind of roster could be compiled this winter with a payroll befitting a New York-based franchise.) But even if the cash outlay will remain modest, there are plenty of creative options available to allow the Mets to capitalize on a good, cheap core and build a roster that can compete for another NL East title — and hope to achieve more.

Non-Tender Candidate: Pedro Alvarez

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MLB’s deadline to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players is coming up on Wednesday, and one of the more interesting cases is that of Pirates first baseman Pedro Alvarez, who seems at least somewhat unlikely to return to the Bucs next season. MLBTR projects that Alvarez would make $8.1MM through the arbitration process in 2016 (after which he would become eligible for free agency). That’s a figure that the Pirates could be reluctant to pay, and there are any number of signals that both Alvarez and the Bucs appear ready to move on from one another.

USATSI_8768590_154513410_lowresAlready this offseason, reporters have indicated that the Pirates are listening to trade offers for Alvarez. Last week, CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman reported that Alvarez himself would prefer to be dealt. And the Bucs’ signing of fellow left-handed first baseman Jake Goebbert to a big-league deal last week suggests that the organization is planning for the possibility that Alvarez won’t be back. Goebbert doesn’t look like a long-term answer at first base, and he has options remaining, so the Bucs could simply mostly want him for minor-league depth. But they could also platoon him with righty Michael Morse at first until the Super Two threshold passes, at which point they could promote top prospect Josh Bell.

It seems at least somewhat likely, then, that Alvarez will head to a new team this winter. The question is how he’ll do it. The Pirates could still try to trade him before next week’s deadline, but it’s questionable whether they’ll be able to find a suitor, given that other teams know the deadline will force the Bucs’ hand. They could tender Alvarez and plan to trade him later, but that would be somewhat of a risk, particularly given that they don’t generally have huge payrolls and they have many key players whose salaries are increasing (including Neil Walker and Mark Melancon through arbitration and Andrew McCutchen, Josh Harrison and Starling Marte through their long-term deals). Or they could non-tender him.

Even leaving aside the looming deadline, assessing Alvarez’s trade value is difficult. What does appear fairly clear is that he should have little value to any team in the National League. Via FanGraphs, Alvarez ranked as the third-worst defensive player in the Majors last year, ahead of only Matt Kemp and Hanley Ramirez. The Bucs moved Alvarez to first in 2015 after he suffered inexplicable throwing issues at third base in 2014, but the move across the diamond did him few favors, as he struggled badly with the fundamentals at his new position and made 23 errors. Essentially, unless he dramatically improve at one of the two defensive positions with the help of a new team’s coaching staff, he’s close to unplayable at either position.

That would make Alvarez a better fit for the American League, where he can DH. His 27 home runs in 2015 have to appear tempting to opposing clubs, particularly ones with ballparks more favorable to home-run power than PNC Park. Unfortunately, Alvarez has offensive shortcomings as well — he’s struck out in more than a quarter of his plate appearances in every year he’s been in the league, and he therefore struggles to post good batting averages.

Still, absent context, Alvarez’s .243/.318/.469 line in 2015 (or the .243/.320/.454 Steamer projects for him next season) would make him a decent DH, particularly given that he might hit somewhat better in certain ballparks. AL designated hitters batted .264/.334/.454 in 2015, and Alvarez would appear to fit in fairly well. As I pointed out in September at Bucs Dugout, however, using Alvarez as a full-time DH would limit the flexibility many teams like to have with that lineup spot. Many full-time DHs, like David Ortiz, Alex Rodriguez and Kendrys Morales, are significantly better hitters than Alvarez, and many teams without that kind of strong DH option divide plate appearances at that position among several players, many of whom also play in the field. Also, some of the teams who fared worst at DH in 2015, like the Tigers and Athletics, did so because of the performances of veterans who are signed to long-term deals and who seem likely to return to their positions next season.

This isn’t to say that there won’t, or shouldn’t, be interest in Alvarez. The Orioles, who struggled at DH last year and who play in a ballpark friendly to left-handed home run hitters, stand out as one potential fit. But trading Alvarez might be somewhat tricky for the Pirates, particularly given that, if they tender him a contract, he won’t be particularly cheap. To be worth his likely $8.1MM salary, he’ll have to produce something like one win above replacement. In the past two seasons combined, he’s been worth less than one win, via both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference. So trading for Alvarez and taking on his salary would require a leap of faith — that his incredible power can somehow overwhelm his shortcomings, or (if his new team uses him in the field with any regularity) that his defense can improve.

It will be interesting, then, to see if the Pirates can pull off a trade involving Alvarez, and if not, what they do with him. Non-tendering him and spending elsewhere would be defensible, particularly with Bell waiting in the wings. Non-tendering Alvarez would also free the Bucs to spend on some other left-handed first base option for next season. The Pirates could also tender Alvarez, use him in a platoon with Morse, hope he recoups some value with a couple decent months in the field, and then either trade him or keep him, depending on the team’s position in the standings and how Bell is doing at Triple-A Indianapolis. We’re only days from the deadline to tender contracts, and it’s not at all clear which direction the Pirates will go.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Extension Candidate: Jose Bautista

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In the wake of Jose Bautista’s breakout 2010 season, the Blue Jays signed the right fielder to a five-year, $65MM extension that covered his final year of arbitration eligibility and first four free agent seasons.  (It also included a $14MM club option on the 2016 campaign.)  This extension generated quite a bit of controversy at the time.  An MLBTR poll revealed that over 72 percent of readers polled felt the deal was unwarranted, and several pundits felt the Jays should’ve sold high on Bautista rather than gamble that his out-of-nowhere slugging prowess wouldn’t just as suddenly disappear.

Instead, that extension turned out to be one of Alex Anthopoulos’ canniest moves as Toronto’s general manager.  Bautista has averaged a .933 OPS over the last five seasons, and he leads all players with 173 home runs over that same span.  Needless to say, that $65MM deal has turned into one of the largest bargains in the sport, and the club’s decision to pick up Bautista’s $14MM option for the coming season was the easiest of no-brainers.Jose Bautista

With this track record under his belt (and in the wake of a certain instantly-iconic postseason blast), Bautista has a lot of negotiating power on his side if the Jays want to negotiate an extension this offseason.  That being said, there are a large number of factors to consider in this particularly interesting extension case, as if Bautista and the Jays were to reach a new deal, it would very likely set a new contractual precedent.

Bautista is still hitting at an elite level as he enters his age-35 season, and thus he doesn’t really have any comparables among past players with at least 6 years of service time who signed multi-year extensions.  Looking at veteran sluggers who have signed big free agent deals in recent years, Bautista has out-performed the likes of Victor Martinez, Nelson Cruz or Carlos Beltran and also lacks major baggage like Cruz’s PED suspension history or the torn ACL that cost Martinez his entire 2012 season.  Since V-Mart was limited to DH-only duty and still received a $17MM average annual value, Bautista and agent Jay Alou can certainly make the case that Bautista’s superior hitting numbers and added defensive value deserves a $20MM+ AAV.

It may sound like a big salary for a player in his mid-30’s, yet power is a valuable commodity.  Tim Dierkes predicts that five of this winter’s free agents (Jason Heyward, Chris Davis, Justin Upton, Yoenis Cespedes, Alex Gordon) will all find deals with an AAV north of $20MM per season; add Bautista to that group, and he and Davis topped them all by each posting a 147 wRC+ in 2015.  There’s enough interest in Ben Zobrist that he could also conceivably find a four-year deal entering his age-35 season, and while Zobrist far outpaces Bautista in defensive versatility, Bautista is also the far superior hitter.  To sum up, if Bautista hit the open market this winter, he’d very likely find a four-year deal in the $80MM-$100MM range.

This is the price tag the Blue Jays will need to approach in order to extend their star.  If they’re open to meeting this price, it might be a smart move to tear up Bautista’s 2016 contract and essentially start the extension next season by giving him a raise to at least $20MM and then three more $20MM+ seasons through 2019 (with possibly a vesting option for 2020).  Starting a four-year extension in 2017 would mean the Jays are on the hook for a big salary in 2020 when Bautista would be entering his age-40 season.  If I’m the Jays, I’d much rather pay Bautista a $20MM+ salary next year than I would for 2020 since the team is obviously much more confident that Bautista will still be a top run producer in the short term.

We’ve already looked at the pros of a Bautista deal, so now let’s focus on the cons.  Despite Bautista’s consistency, guaranteeing big money to any slugger in his mid-30’s carries a lot of risk.  Of the three veteran free agents I cited earlier, Martinez and Beltran both struggled through injury-plagued down years in the first seasons of their latest contracts.  Bautista’s 2012 and 2013 seasons were both shortened by injuries — a bad wrist that required surgery after the 2012 campaign and a bruised hip that led the Jays to shut Bautista down in late 2013.

He also played through a shoulder injury for much of 2015 that didn’t much affect his hitting, though it weakened his usually-strong throwing arm and may have contributed to his subpar defensive metrics (-3 Defensive Runs Saved, -12.5 UZR/150).  Bautista’s defensive numbers in right field have fluctuated over the years, though it also wouldn’t be a surprise if his 2015 stats are the first sign of a permanent downswing.

So if the Blue Jays were to extend Bautista, it would be under the assumption that he might only be a couple of seasons away from permanent first base/DH duty.  It’s this scenario that poses the biggest question mark to a Bautista extension, as the Jays already have Edwin Encarnacion as a full-time 1B/DH.  Encarnacion is also eligible for free agency after the 2016 season, is 26 months younger than Bautista and he’s posted slightly better numbers in some notable stat categories since the start of the 2012 season.

Bautista: 2266 PA, 130 HRs, 355 runs, .261/.377/.522, .387 wOBA, 146 wRC+, 18 fWAR

Encarnacion: 2431 PA, 151 HRs, 352 runs, .274/.371/.549, .391 wOBA, 149 wRC+, 16.3 fWAR

In Russell Martin and Troy Tulowitzki, Toronto already has two major salaries on the books for the next four and five years, respectively.  Another big long-term commitment will be added if the club extends Josh Donaldson.  It’s hard to see the Blue Jays committing over $40MM per season in additional salary through the rest of the 2010’s to two more players, especially two players in their mid-30’s who would be locked into the first base and DH spots.

Unless Bautista or Encarnacion could somehow be talked into another team-friendly deal, the Jays may well have to choose which of the two franchise cornerstones they want to keep in the fold.  Encarnacion is younger but Bautista is the better athlete of the two.  In terms of pure dollars, Bautista’s age makes him slightly cheaper to extend since Encarnacion would likely push for another guaranteed season or two.  Then again, if the Jays are willing to spend big money to retain a slugger, going with the younger option makes more sense if they feel all else is equal or if they feel Encarnacion will age better over the next few years.

Optics will also play a big role in a Bautista extension.  The Blue Jays organization already took a PR hit with its revived fanbase this offseason given the awkward nature of Anthopoulos’ departure.  It wouldn’t help public perception of new president/CEO Mark Shapiro or the Rogers Commnications ownership group if a new deal couldn’t be worked out with the face of the franchise.  Bautista hasn’t been shy about expressing his opinions on the club’s business over the years, and one suspects he would speak up if he doesn’t feel the Jays are making a concerted effort to extend him.

From Bautista’s perspective, an extension would allow him to remain in a familiar spot, keep him playing for a contender if the Jays keep up their 2015 form and, in all likelihood, spend the rest of his career in Toronto.  Given all of the factors that will go into Bautista’s extension case, it will fascinating to see if the two sides can reach a new deal or if Bautista will be tossing a bat while wearing another team’s uniform in 2017.

Photo courtesy of Kim Klement/USA Today Sports Images

MLBTR Mailbag: Plouffe, Belt, O’Day, Angels, Happ

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Thanks as always for the large volume of questions for this week’s mailbag. Before delving into this week’s questions, I’ll begin by stating (in light of a huge number of questions pertaining to these two) that it seems extremely unlikely for either Freddie Freeman or Jose Fernandez to be traded this offseason. Braves GM John Coppolella strongly denied the notion that he’d even entertain trading Freeman, and the Marlins would be selling low on one of the game’s premier pitching talents before he even becomes overly expensive. There’s clearly some level of animosity between agent Scott Boras and owner Jeffrey Loria/president David Samson, but the overwhelming media consensus since the initial mention of a Fernandez trade possibility is that the Marlins’ ace will remain in Miami, and that’s the expectation here as well.

On to this week’s topics…

“If the Twins were to trade Trevor Plouffe for a bullpen arm, what would a potential return be? What teams match up with the Twins for this hypothetical trade?” — Josh K.

The Angels stand out as the best fit to me and already have reported interest, with the Twins said to be intrigued by young right-hander Cam Bedrosian. He alone isn’t enough to land Plouffe, I wouldn’t think, but adding someone such as Trevor Gott, whose 96 mph fastball would fit the Twins’ desire of adding power arms, makes the notion more palatable. Plouffe has value as a solid defender at third with a league-average bat, but he’s not necessarily cheap and comes with only a couple years of team control remaining.

The White Sox have a clear need at third, but the two teams may not want to deal within the division. San Diego makes some sense as a fit, also, if they’re ready to move on from Will Middlebrooks and prefer to play Jedd Gyorko at second base while keeping Yangervis Solarte, Cory Spangenberg and Carlos Asuaje in utility roles. They have plenty of intriguing relief arms to discuss with Minnesota (e.g. Kevin Quackenbush, Brandon Maurer, Tayron Guerrero).

“Now that Brandon Crawford has been extended for 6/75, what is Brandon Belt’s value? He profiles similarly as a solid, albeit extremely streaky offensive threat, with elite defense for his position. Obviously that skillset is less appreciated at first base. What would a Belt extension be worth or conversely, what is his trade value for the Giants?” — Keevan T.

We have Belt projected at $6.2MM this winter, his third of four trips through the arbitration process as a Super Two player. Based on that, he’ll probably earn $9-10MM or so in his final arbitration year, so we’ll call it $16MM for his final two arb seasons. (Side note: a straight two, year, $15-16MM extension shouldn’t be entirely ruled out this winter, as the Giants have shown an affinity for locking in cost certainty without buying out free-agent years in the past.)

It’s hard to envision Belt’s agents at Excel Sports placing anything less than a $15MM value on his free-agent years. There’s a case to be made that he could earn more than that as a free agent right now, but he’s signing two years in advance, so there’s typically some form of trade-off. Freddie Freeman’s name probably gets dropped as a comp in these talks (Excel also reps Freeman), and his free-agent seasons cost about $21MM on average at the time of his signing. That was a rare pre-arb deal in which Freeman might not have taken too significant a hit in terms of pricing out his FA years, though, and I don’t think the Giants would be interested in paying Belt something like $19-20MM annually for those FA seasons.

Something in the vicinity of $83-85MM over six seasons would give Belt ~$17MM per free-agent season, but the Giants probably would have some hesitation due to his injury history and recent concussions. They’d probably try to drop the price down into the Crawford range based on that or knock a year off the contract entirely (something like five years, $65-67MM), but that could be viewed as too big a trade-off from the player side.

Belt probably doesn’t get the credit he deserves for his offense since he plays in one of the worst hitting environments in baseball, but his park-adjusted numbers suggest he’s been 30 percent better than a league-average bat over the past four seasons. That needs to fetch a young MLB contributor and further prospect value or at least one notable Top 50-ish prospect and some not-insignificant second-tier pieces. I realize that’s a highly generalized description of his trade value, but it’d be a fool’s errand to try to peg a specific team and return for his services.

“With the reports of the offers that Darren O’Day is getting from the Dodgers and Nationals among others, should the O’s have extended a qualifying offer to O’Day? Of course, the robust market is in part a result of him not having a QO, but it seems as though as the best reliever on the market and with strong bullpens being en vogue after the Royals’ run, he may have turned it down. Was the risk of him accepting just too high for the O’s?” — Dave S.

The fact that O’Day doesn’t have draft compensation tied to his name is a significant factor in his market. The only relievers we’ve seen reject a QO were David Robertson and Rafael Soriano. The former had a legitimate chance at the largest relief contract ever last offseason due to his save total, while the latter was coming off of a lights-out, 42-save campaign.

Saves aren’t compensated the way they used to be on the free-agent market. I do think they still inflate value, though, and O’Day’s numbers and age (he’s three years older than Robertson was when he hit the market) limit his earning power. $36MM is being mentioned as his absolute peak right now. If we assume something like 4/28 for his ultimate contract, then O’Day would be getting about 3/12 on top of a theoretical QO, which isn’t much for a pitcher of his talents and consistency. With that in mind, there’d have been a strong case for him taking the $15.8MM and trying again next winter.

“I’ve seen Daniel Murphy’s name connected to the Angels in many FA predictions/articles, obviously with good reason. His left handed bat could fill multiple holes in the Halos line-up and his versatility at 2B/3B seems to be just what Dr. Moreno/Eppler/Scioscia ordered. However, because he rejected a QO he’ll force the Angels to surrender their top pick (25th as of now). Is Murphy really worth the loss of that pick? Do you feel it makes more sense for the Angels to sign a top tier FA as a precursor to a Murphy signing in an effort to maximize their gains? Or is it more likely that Eppler holds the top pick due to it’s value as a building block for the future of his Angels?” — Jake T.

I do think it’s worth it for the Angels. Their farm system is in disarray at the moment right now, so I understand the want to preserve the pick. I feel like if Eppler were truly set on stockpiling picks, though, the qualifying offer would’ve been made to David Freese (who admittedly did have a case to accept but also one to reject as the only starting-caliber third baseman on the market). The Angels have also been loosely tied to names like Jason Heyward, who’d require draft pick forfeiture, and owner Arte Moreno has shown a willingness to spend to win now over building through the draft in the past. Murphy adds two or more wins to the Angels next season, balances out the lineup and could fit in at second or third base. He’s a great on-paper fit, and the Angels are clearly aiming to win in the near-term.

“Even after the Rays traded Nathan Karns, I’m getting the impression that they could trade another one of their young starting pieces. If they do, who do you think is most likely to go and what type of package could he net?” — Taylor L.

It’s not really Tampa Bay’s style to attach a bad contract — although given their lack of spending, they rarely have bad contracts — to something of value simply to clear payroll. They’d be selling low on Drew Smyly, Matt Moore or Alex Cobb, none of whom are expensive yet, and it’s tough to see them moving Jake Odorizzi, who isn’t even arb-eligible yet. Erasmo Ramirez makes more sense to me. I can envision the Rays feeling as though they acquired him, built up his value and profited off his strong season just before he begins to get expensive. They can probably get more than Mike Montgomery back for Ramirez at this point, and that was the initial cost of acquisition.

“What are your thoughts on the market for J.A. Happ? Initially, I thought 2/20 to 24 range would get it done. However, the fact he doesnt require draft pick compensation makes him a bit more attractive, no? Is he in that 3/30 range and upwards?” — Nathaniel M.

Happ’s in that 3/30 range for me after the turnaround he had in Pittsburgh. That might be more than the Pirates care to pay to retain him based on the short sample of dominance he had there, but I have to imagine he feels the Bucs were a large part of the success he had. And, we saw the Pirates pony up with $39MM for Francisco Liriano after he revitalized his career there. That Happ doesn’t require draft pick compensation does work in his favor, as does the shorter term for which he can be had.

Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Dodgers

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The Dodgers’ new-look front office has done a lot of wheeling and dealing already, but there’s more to come as it continues to overhaul the league’s most expensive roster.

Guaranteed Contracts

Other Obligations

  • Matt Kemp, OF: $14MM through 2019 (salary obligations remaining with Dodgers as part of trade with Padres)
  • Michael Morse, OF: unreported portion of $8MM salary for 2016 (likely sufficient to make up all or most of difference between it and Tabata’s salary; agreed to as part of trade with Pirates)

Arbitration Eligibles (projections via MLB Trade Rumors)

Free Agents

Brandon Beachy, Zack Greinke (exercised opt-out provision, rejected qualifying offer), Chris Heisey, Jim Johnson, Howie Kendrick (rejected qualifying offer), Jimmy Rollins, Justin Ruggiano, Chase Utley

Andrew Friedman, Farhan Zaidi and co. have not been shy at all about taking advantage of the Dodgers’ deep pockets since taking the helm in Los Angeles. But the group has been more freewheeling than free spending in the traditional sense. For example: the club signed Hector Olivera last March, then flipped him (and ate the $28MM signing bonus) in July — before he ever appeared with the major league club — in a trade that brought in Alex Wood, Jose Peraza, Luis Avilan, and rental pieces. In the process, L.A. ate not only Olivera’s signing bonus, but also the tens of millions of dollars owed to Mat Latos, Michael Morse, and Bronson Arroyo.

That wasn’t even the only multi-player deal consummated with Atlanta. In their first year of office, we’ve also seen this front office team ship out a former superstar (and pay down part of the contract), sell a controllable All-Star and flip the key piece of the return for a one-year veteran, acquire the Phillies’ long-time double-play combo (here and here), roll the dice on risky free agent pitching, effectively purchase a draft pick, put late-season trust in an unproven prospect, and spend big internationally (on more than one occasion).

The organization also parted ways with skipper Don Mattingly, who was criticized at times for tactical decisions even as he drew strong reviews for handling a clubhouse full of personalities and payroll. In Mattingly’s place, the Dodgers have tabbed Dave Roberts as the new manager. That move could open the top brass up to criticism, as it’s his first time running a dugout. But, that sort of risk hasn’t seemed to hold sway in Los Angeles (and the Dodgers are hardly the only team to recently hire an inexperienced manager). Roberts will be tasked with leading an expensive, talented, and carefully constructed roster to an NL West crown and beyond.

With such a wide-ranging track record, it’s largely a fool’s errand to predict what the Dodgers’ brain trust will do this winter. But it’s clear what their biggest decision is, at least at this point: whether or not to re-sign Zack Greinke. The right-hander’s opt-out clause was perfectly timed to coincide with a 222 2/3-inning, 1.66 ERA masterpiece of a season. It doesn’t hurt that he held opposing teams to less than three earned per nine in his prior two seasons in L.A. The net result is that he’s going to be extremely expensive, in average annual value if not also years, as a free agent. With potential competition from the rival Giants, the stakes are high. Of course, we’ve also seen the Dodgers connected to varying degrees with top free agents (e.g. David Price, Jordan Zimmermann), and potential trade targets such as Shelby Miller, so it’s prudent at this point to consider all options open.

October 15, 2015; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Zack Greinke (21) pitches the second inning against New York Mets in game five of NLDS at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports

Whether or not the team brings Greinke back into the fold, moreover, the rotation figures to be an area of focus. That’s true despite the fact that Brett Anderson chose to return on a one-year, $15.8MM qualifying offer. Clayton Kershaw — the best pitcher in baseball — is firmly ensconced atop the rotation, and Alex Wood joins Anderson as a nice mid-rotation arm. But there’s a lot of uncertainty elsewhere, as Hyun-jin Ryu and Brandon McCarthy will each be working back from serious injuries (the former, hopefully, before the latter).

The team isn’t without options behind that group. Mike Bolsinger, Carlos Frias, Zach Lee, and Joe Wieland all have had a taste of the bigs. Jharel Cotton and Chris Anderson could soon be nearing MLB readiness as well. (That’s before considering the team’s two highest-upside young arms — Julio Urias and Jose De Leon — who could theoretically be ready as soon as 2016, but shouldn’t be pushed forward out of necessity.) But for a contending team that has seen its depth tested in recent years, there’s a good argument to be made for adding a veteran, even if Greinke or another top arm signs on.

While the rotation has some questions, the pen is the area that drew the most fan ire last year. But that’s not to say the relief corps has any obvious holes heading into 2016. Kenley Jansen remains a high-leverage stud. The team has right-handed middle-relief and/or set-up options including Chris Hatcher, Pedro Baez, Yimi Garcia, and Juan Nicasio — every one of whom struck out 10 or more batters per nine and carried a sub-4.00 ERA last year. And the Dodgers return southpaws Luis Avilan and J.P. Howell, with the former coming over in the aforementioned Olivera/Wood swap and the latter exercising his player option.

That looks to be a pretty strong group, and many of the younger rotation options noted above could slide into the pen if a need arose. But there’s still a reasonable argument to be made that the club ought to be proactive. For one thing, there’s only one elite arm in the pen as things stand. For another, that particular elite arm — Jansen — will reach the open market after the season. Whether or not the club will feel at all compelled to line up a replacement for him now, it makes sense that it is at least exploring the relief market for opportunities. We’ve heard talk that players such as Darren O’Day (via free agency) or even Aroldis Chapman (in a trade) might be real considerations.

The position player side of things is less interesting in some ways and more interesting in others. The infield is in good shape: Corey Seager appears set to take over at shortstop after his impressive debut, Adrian Gonzalez is locked in at first, and the Yasmani Grandal/A.J. Ellis pairing behind the dish figures to be maintained.

Los Angeles still has an array of options at second and third, with Justin Turner, Enrique Hernandez, Jose Peraza, and Alex Guerrero all on hand. (The last name on that list, Guerrero, could also end up as trade bait. And Turner is coming off of surgery, though we’ve not heard any indication that he’ll be limited.) Of course, all of those players hit from the right side, so it would be nice to add a lefty-swinging option. The team has been said to have interest in a reunion with Chase Utley, who could fill such a role. While that mix does not scream out for an upgrade, one of those positions could also theoretically be filled from the outside if a great opportunity arose.

Things start to get fun, though, when you turn to the outfield. Andre Ethier and Carl Crawford are both expensive, left-handed hitters who should probably be part-time players at this point. Joc Pederson showed both his rather steep upside and the reasons for doubt as he followed up on a huge first half with miserable play down the stretch. Yasiel Puig had his worst season as a big leaguer and continued to generate controversy, though he still carries one of the highest ceilings in all of baseball. Scott Van Slyke took a step back last year but still offers a supplementary right-handed bat. Guerrero (in the corner) as well as Hernandez and even Peraza (up the middle) could also contribute on the grass.

It’s not outlandish to imagine that group remaining intact. Those players represent a fairly intriguing blend of upside and depth, after all, as well as ample lineup construction possibilities. It didn’t prove unworkable to allocate playing time last year with such a wide variety of options. And, after all, there’s always injury and underperformance to account for.

That being said, there are several scenarios where this outfield mix could be shaken up — perhaps significantly. The free agent market is full of quality outfielders, some of whom could be alluring enough to force other transactions to clear space — though we haven’t heard much to suggest that. Even without a major addition, change could make sense. Ethier and Crawford are somewhat redundant, and any cost savings could be re-allocated if a willing trade partner is found. The former, of course, has been much more productive of late and carries more trade value. (Indeed, the remainder of his deal looks manageable, if a bit expensive.) Pederson seems unlikely to be moved, but he’d represent a big chip if the team wants to make a deal without giving up its young pitching prospects.

And then there’s Puig, who draws as many whispers as any player in baseball. There’s still no reason to believe that he’ll be shopped, per se, but if L.A. is really open to trading him the possibilities are more or less endless. Given his talent, established ceiling, and cost/control, it’s hard to imagine any team in baseball that wouldn’t be intrigued. It’d be hard to sell him now after a down season, as the return surely wouldn’t be what it might’ve been last winter, but Puig still represents a (hypothetical) centerpiece to a major deal — possibly one that would return a high-end, controllable starter.

One thing that’s clear is that there are relatively few limitations on what the Dodgers can do. Even if the goal is to pare back the payroll, the organization has not only immense spending capacity but also high-end, controllable talent (at the majors and in the minors) from which to deal. That creates an opportunity and sets an expectation for the creative front office.

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