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Valuing 2016 Opt-Out Clauses

By Matt Swartz | at March 28, 2016 8:51pm CDT

Back in January, I wrote an article in which I approximated the dollar value of the opt-out clauses in the contracts for David Price, Johnny Cueto, and Jason Heyward. Since then, five more contracts with opt-outs have been signed, so I have extended this analysis to put values on these opt-outs as well. These include contracts for Yoenis Cespedes, Justin Upton, Scott Kazmir, Ian Kennedy, and Wei-Yin Chen. Remember, these values are approximations of what these contracts would have cost without opt-outs. (Please reference the above-linked post for further explanation of the methodology.)

Too many people talk as though opt-outs are just bad decisions on the part of teams, without considering how much more expensive contracts would be without them. This logic would imply that no financial firm should ever sell a put—of course they should, but only at the right price.

The earlier three contracts were larger than almost all of the five more recent contracts. Other than Justin Upton, the other recent contracts were under $100 million, so the opt-out values are generally lower than the $17-22 million that I found for Price, Cueto, and Heyward. However, all five opt-out values all range between 10 and 15 percent of the full contract value, similar to the prior three deals.

The following table shows the assumptions surrounding the opt-outs, like the one in January’s article. (Mobile app users can click here to see it.)

Yoenis Cespedes received a three-year contract for $75 million, but it is really a $27.5 million one-year contract with a player option of a two-year, $47.5 million deal. Few players actually sign one-year deals for that much money, but as we saw a decade ago with Roger Clemens, one-year deals for superstars have an AAV much higher than the AAV superstars receive on longer deals. In this case, Cespedes would probably have been worth about $31.7 million on a one-year deal. At this stage, a reasonable estimate of Cespedes’ value for 2017-18 would be around $55.1 million. However, like with all of these deals, we know that it is very likely that Cespedes’ market value will change significantly by next year. Chances are that if he is good enough to opt-out, then he will have had a strong 2016 campaign, and his market value will be higher. I estimate this would be around $68.2 million for 2017-18 in that case. If he does not opt-out, then he probably has disappointed in 2016 and probably has lowered his two-year value for 2017-18 down to $36.9 million. With an estimated 60% chance of opting out, that puts Cespedes’ opt-out at about $11.8 million. In other words, a regular three-year deal for Cespedes would be for $86.8 million instead of $75 million.

Justin Upton’s contract six-year, $132.5 million contract with the Tigers amounts to a two-year, $44.25 million deal with a four-year, $85 million player option. As a relatively young free agent, Upton has the potential to remain very valuable by the time he reaches his opt-out, but as a unique talent he is a risk to regress to the mean significantly—there is more room for him to fall than mediocre players. I estimate that if he has opted out after 2017, he has played well enough over 2016-17 that his market value will be about $119.1 million over 2018-21, and if he has not opted out then it stands to reason he has played poorly enough that his market value for 2018-21 would be about $52.2 million. Further, I estimate that he has a 58 percent chance to opt out. As a result, Upton’s opt-out is worth about $19.7 million, meaning that his value in a six-year deal without an opt-out would be $152.2 million.

Scott Kazmir had a relatively small deal for one that included an opt-out. His deal amounts to a $16 million one-year deal with $32 million two-year player option. I estimate that if he has opted out after this year, then he must have played well enough in 2016 that his market value for 2017-18 probably reached around $44.1 million. On the other hand, if he has played poorly enough that he does not opt out, then I estimate his market value for 2017-18 must have fallen to around $21.7 million. I think there is a 46 percent chance he opts out. As a result, his opt-out value is only worth $5 million—so a regular three-year deal without an opt-out would probably have been for about $53 million.

Ian Kennedy’s $70 million five-year contract is actually a $27 million two-year deal with a three-year, $43 million player option. His contract values him significantly higher than his Steamer or especially his ZiPS projection on FanGraphs would suggest, making it challenging to estimate his value. However, it is safe to assume that the Royals are placing more value on him than the projection systems and that they probably expect that his 2016 value is higher. Furthermore, there must have been at least some pressure for another team (real or imagined) that caused the Royals to believe they had to offer as much as they did. So we need to estimate the equivalent value of a contract based on the what the Royals paid, rather than what ZiPS or Steamer (and up to 28 other teams potentially) seem to think. Based on this, if he has opted out after 2017, then there is a good chance that the Royals (and potentially the other team they imagined themselves outbidding) were right about him, but if he does not then there is a good chance the projection systems were right. I estimate that his value over 2018-20 would only be $15 million conditional on not opting out, while it would be about $57.7 million if he played well enough to justify opting out. I think the Royals estimate a 44 percent chance that he will opt out (again, another team bidding presumably thought something similar), making his opt-out value about $7.1 million. A five-year deal without an opt-out would probably be worth about $77.1 million.

Wei-Yin Chen has a tricky deal. Nominally he has a 5 year deal worth $80 million, but it is really a $28 million deal over two years, with a player option for $52 million over the following three years. However, if he does not opt out, then the team has an option for 2021 that will actually vest if he pitches a sufficient number of innings and is healthy. Putting a value on a vesting option that is conditional on having a low value after 2017 is tricky, but I believe I have come up with a reasonable estimate. I think that if he does opt out, his value for 2018-20 is probably about $60.4 million, while his conditional value if he plays poorly enough to not opt out would be $21.3 million over 2018-20. His vesting option at the end is essentially worth under $2 million to the team. I think that on a normal five-year contract for 2016-20, Chen would have gotten about $82 million, which means his opt-out value was about $12 million.

As these deals become more common, it becomes more important to properly value these put options. I estimate that these five deals would each have cost about 10 to 15 percent more for teams if they did not provide the players with opt-out clauses. Players with more years post opt-out and higher talent levels will generally have a larger value to opting out, while the inverse is true for players with fewer years post opt-out who are less talented. While these opt-outs are risky, they definitely provide an opportunity for teams to save money relative to mutually guaranteed longer contracts.

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MLBTR Originals Newsstand

MLBTR Originals

By Zachary Links | at March 27, 2016 8:21pm CDT

A look back at the original reporting and analysis found on MLBTR the last seven days:

Just days ago, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes unveiled his 2017 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings. Stephen Strasburg takes the No. 1 position on the list as he looks to break David Price’s record deal for starting pitchers.
Chuck Wasserstrom sat down with Andy MacPhail to discuss the 25-year anniversary of the Twins’ 1991 World Series championship. One of the key moves in building the Twins’ championship roster came in July 1989 when they dealt fan favorite Frank Viola. MacPhail admits that trading the pitcher was difficult. “I remember just wanting to have to sit down for a moment and sort of collect myself. Independent of the market size, it clearly was not an easy decision,” MacPhail said. “It was not going to be popular, because you are trading a known for multiple unknowns to some degree. While I felt conviction that it was the right thing for us to make the trade … I wouldn’t say I was conflicted, but I recognized back then that of all the trades I had made in my career, this one was going to have the most riding on it. If it was not successful, it was going to come back and bite you personally – probably in a big way. You trade a potential 20-game winner to a New York club, you better be getting something back.”
Diamondbacks GM Dave Stewart surprised everyone in baseball this winter with his moves. Recently, Brett Ballantini sat down with the agent-turned-GM to discuss his offseason overhaul in Arizona.
Speaking of Stewart, MLBTR’s Steve Adams looked back on the Diamondbacks’ aggressive offseason. Arizona committed a whopping $206.5MM over six years to pitcher Zack Greinke while trading a sizable package to the Braves for right-hander Shelby Miller (and left-hander Gabe Speier). Now, the D’Backs are hoping to go from 79 wins to the top of the NL West.
On the latest edition of the MLBTR Podcast, host Jeff Todd spoke with former big league catcher John Baker to discuss his role with the Cubs organization. Jeff also spoke with Tim about his power rankings for 2017. A new episode of the podcast is released every Thursday and can be accessed on iTunes, SoundCloud, and Stitcher.
This winter, the Braves continued their build towards contending in 2017 in an effort to boost fan interest when their brand new ballpark opens up. Jeff looked back on Atlanta’s moves, including deals for Shelby Miller and Andrelton Simmons.
The Astros’ success in 2015 was a pleasant surprise. In 2016, they’ll enter the season with some very real expectations for success. Steve reflected on Houston’s offseason dealings, including the acquisition of reliever Ken Giles.
Faced with a payroll crunch, new GM Billy Eppler was somewhat limited in what he could do this past winter. Still, as MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk writes, the Halos made a couple of trades to improve their infield situation while making some other low-cost moves.
The Rays needed offense this offseason and president of baseball operations Matthew Silverman wasted little time in getting that accomplished, as Mark writes in his Offseason In Review for Tampa Bay. While Tampa brought some new bats into the mix, however, there are plenty of questions remaining for the team in the wake of their winter dealings.
The Orioles spent more than ever this winter in an effort to try and win the AL East. Mark looked back on all of the O’s moves, including headline-grabbers like Chris Davis‘ deal, the Darren O’Day re-signing, the addition of Yovani Gallardo, and the trade for Mark Trumbo.
After adding David Price and Craig Kimbrel, the Red Sox are hoping to make David Ortiz‘s final season a memorable one, as Mark writes.
The Pirates’ offseason wasn’t splashy, but there are still additions that are worth paying attention to, as MLBTR’s Charlie Wilmoth writes.
The rebuild continues in Philly and Jeff looked at the deals made by the Phillies’ new forward-thinking regime.

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MLBTR Originals

Offseason In Review: Boston Red Sox

By Mark Polishuk | at March 25, 2016 5:23pm CDT

This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s Offseason In Review series. The full index of Offseason In Review posts can be found here.

Two major pitching additions have the Red Sox hoping for a return to contention in David Ortiz‘s final season.

Major League Signings

David Price, SP: Seven years, $217MM
Chris Young, OF: Two years, $13MM
Sandy Leon, C: One year, $534K ($273K if he remains in the minors)
Total spend: $230.273MM guaranteed

Trades And Claims

Acquired RP Craig Kimbrel from Padres for OF Manuel Margot, SS Javier Guerra, IF Carlos Asuaje, and LHP Logan Allen
Acquired RP Carson Smith and SP/RP Roenis Elias from Mariners for SP Wade Miley and RP Jonathan Aro
Acquired cash considerations from Brewers for 3B/OF Garin Cecchini

Notable Minor League Signings

David Murphy ($2MM if he makes the MLB roster), Sean O’Sullivan, Carlos Marmol, Brennan Boesch ($1MM if he makes the MLB roster), Anthony Varvaro, Dan Butler

Extensions

None

Notable Losses

Rich Hill, Craig Breslow, Alexi Ogando, Ryan Cook, Jean Machi

Needs Addressed

Basically from the moment Jon Lester was traded to Oakland in a 2014 deadline deal, Boston fans and media have been clamoring for the Red Sox to acquire a new ace. That box can be officially checked now that the Sox have landed one of the game’s best pitchers in David Price. There was little doubt headed into the winter that the Sox would pursue a front-of-the-rotation arm, with the real question being whether the team would trade for an ace or sign one. The latter option wasn’t a given considering how the organization had a well-publicized hesitation to signing pitchers to big contracts through their 30s.

Needless to say, that hesitation is no more since the Red Sox signed Price to the largest contract ever given to a pitcher. Price’s track record of durability undoubtedly factored into Boston’s willingness to make a deal, and it’s possible the team could avoid paying Price into his late 30s altogether if he exercises the opt-out clause in his deal after the 2018 season. An opt-out would turn the contract into “only” a three-year/$90MM commitment over Price’s age 30-32 seasons.

Price will headline a rotation that includes Clay Buchholz (whose $13MM club option for 2016 was unsurprisingly exercised by the team), Rick Porcello, Eduardo Rodriguez and Joe Kelly. Rodriguez will likely miss the first few weeks of the season recovering from a dislocated kneecap, so new acquisition Roenis Elias or knuckleballer Steven Wright will compete to be Rodriguez’s fill-in or even push Kelly for the fifth spot.

The Sox had something of a rotation surplus even before Price signed, so the team was comfortable letting late-season surprise Rich Hill leave in free agency. After Price joined the club, Boston made room by dealing Wade Miley to Seattle in exchange for Elias and righty reliever Carson Smith.

While the rotation took the brunt of the criticism last year, Boston’s bullpen was actually the worse (by far) of the two pitching units and perhaps even more in need of an overhaul. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski and GM Mike Hazen addressed this need in a major way early in the offseason by acquiring Craig Kimbrel from the Padres for a very significant prospect package.

It’s a sign of just how dominant Kimbrel has been over his career that 2015 was easily his worst overall season, despite posting a 2.58 ERA, 13.2 K/9 and 3.95 K/BB ratio. In adding arguably baseball’s best closer, the Red Sox now have a more stable answer in the ninth inning than Koji Uehara, who suffered a fractured wrist last season and turns 41 in April. This being said, Uehara did nothing performance-wise to merit the demotion, so he projects as a very dangerous setup man.

Kimbrel and Smith (if healthy, as we’ll address later) stand as huge upgrades to a relief corps that includes Uehara, Junichi Tazawa and lefties Robbie Ross and Tommy Layne, with Elias likely to figure in as additional southpaw depth. The wild card is Carlos Marmol, signed to a minor league deal so the Sox can see if they can solve Marmol’s long-standing control issues and revive his career.

Veteran Chris Young was signed to provide some outfield depth in left and center, and Young also provides a lefty-mashing bat that could make him a natural platoon partner with the left-handed hitting Jackie Bradley. Boston also landed more veteran depth in the form of David Murphy, who could be a bargain on a minor league contract provided that he doesn’t opt out at the end of Spring Training.

Questions Remaining

The biggest issue facing the Red Sox as they head into the 2016 season is that they’re still not sure exactly what they have in four projected regulars — Bradley, Rusney Castillo, Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez. It’s still an open question as to whether Bradley or Castillo can consistently hit Major League pitching, though the Sox have enough invested in both players (Bradley as a prospect and Castillo because he’s owed $56.5MM through 2020) that they’ll continue to get chances. Boston has enough confidence in Bradley, in particular, that they held onto him despite quite a bit of trade interest. Young, Murphy and Brock Holt are on hand as platoon partners or even replacements should Bradley and/or Castillo struggle, though if either player can provide even average production at the plate, their outstanding defense will generate a lot of value.

As for Sandoval and Ramirez, the Sox have to hope that the two high-priced veterans rebound after hugely disappointing debut seasons in Boston. It’s no shock that Ramirez was shopped this offseason, and it’s equally unsurprising that the Red Sox were unable to find a trade partner given Ramirez’s tough 2015 campaign. Had Ramirez been dealt, the Sox were rumored to have been interested in signing Chris Davis, who would’ve provided a more solid answer at first base than Boston’s current plan of having Ramirez learn his second new position in as many years. Moving to first should be an easier transition for Ramirez than moving to left field, though beyond just defense, the Sox have to hope his bat awakens after he posted only a .717 OPS in 430 plate appearances.

Sandoval has been hampered by a sore back this spring and is facing a threat to his playing time in Travis Shaw. The sophomore Shaw is enjoying a huge Spring Training and his ability to play both third and first will probably make him Boston’s top option if Sandoval or Ramirez struggle again (or if Sandoval’s back causes him to miss time). Would the Red Sox actually bench either veteran to start Shaw or Holt? Despite what Dombrowski has said about contracts not dictating playing time, you’d have to think the Sox would give Sandoval and Ramirez an extended opportunity to get back on track.

The Sox have quite a bit of homegrown position player depth to fall back on, though some cracks in the armor will quickly become apparent if (as in 2015) multiple regulars are injured or struggling. It puts even more pressure on the members of the Red Sox lineup who did play well last year (i.e. Ortiz, Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Dustin Pedroia) to keep producing and carrying the club.

While the Red Sox had minor league depth to spare, they still gave up quite a bit to land Kimbrel from San Diego. In addition to absorbing the $25MM remaining on Kimbrel’s contract, the Sox also parted ways with two consensus top-60 prospects (Manuel Margot and Javier Guerra) and two more well-regarded youngsters (Carlos Asuaje and Logan Allen). That’s a hefty price tag for any reliever, even an elite closer. This is just my speculation, but I wonder if the Sox would’ve been better served by adding Margot or Guerra to a Hanley Ramirez trade package to try and entice a suitor to take Ramirez off Boston’s hands.

Price on the mound every fifth day is a big help, though given how many question marks remain on the pitching staff, adding another proven hurler would’ve done a lot of solidify the rotation. The Red Sox now have to hope that Porcello and Kelly pitch as they did late in the season as opposed to their rough early outings, Rodriguez continues to develop into a quality starter once he returns from the DL, and Buchholz can stay healthy.

Catcher is also an interesting position for the 2016 Red Sox, as former top prospect Blake Swihart will start after a solid rookie season. Swihart got the call perhaps a bit earlier than expected last season when Christian Vazquez (himself a highly-touted prospect) underwent Tommy John surgery. If Vazquez is able to return in good health and good form, the Sox could use him or veteran Ryan Hanigan as a trade chip at the July trade deadline. Vazquez could also simply be kept at Triple-A to get him fully re-acclimated to regular playing time, and Boston could revisit the catching question next winter when the team holds a $3.75MM option on Hanigan for 2017.

Deal Of Note

Smith will begin his Red Sox career on the disabled list due to a strained flexor mass in his right forearm, and while there isn’t yet a timetable for his return, the Sox don’t believe Smith’s injury is a long-term problem. Since any forearm injury raises the specter of Tommy John surgery, Smith and the Red Sox can perhaps already feel fortunate about what seems to be a lesser injury.

Losing Smith for an extended period of time, of course, would greatly impact Boston’s bullpen and its net return on one of the winter’s more intriguing under-the-radar trades. In his rookie year, Smith quietly delivered one of the best seasons of any reliever in 2015. The 26-year-old posted a 2.31 ERA that was more than backed up by ERA predictors (2.12 FIP, 2.36 xFIP, 2.04 SIERA), as well as a 64.8% ground ball rate, 11.8 K/9 and 4.18 K/BB rate over 70 innings of work.

For comparison’s sake, Smith topped Kimbrel in ERA, FIP, xFIP, SIERA, ground ball rate, homer rate, walk rate, innings and games pitched last season, while Uehara only came ahead of Smith in ERA, homer rate and walk rate. Looking at other notable relievers who switched teams this winter, Smith also bested Ken Giles in most of those statistical categories. While Smith is a year older than Giles and has one fewer season of MLB domination, the Sox gave Seattle much less for Smith than the prospect haul the Astros needed to acquire Giles from the Phillies.

An eighth-round pick for the Mariners in 2011, Smith has pitched exclusively out of the bullpen, racking up big strikeout totals in the minors and showing a career-long propensity for keeping the ball in the ballpark. Smith has allowed just eight homers in 253 1/3 professional innings (including two last season), a talent that will come in handy at Fenway Park.

While Miley’s ability to eat innings is no small feat, he was an expendable piece in Boston and his 2016 role could perhaps more or less be filled by Elias, a lefty swingman who dominates left-handed hitters. Jonathan Aro is a promising young relief arm, though Smith has already delivered in a big way on the Major League stage.

It may well be that Smith regresses a bit after the league gets more looks at him, though if he’s healthy and even close to his 2015 form, the Kimbrel/Uehara/Smith combination could be as dominant a late-inning trio as any in baseball. Kimbrel is under contract through 2017 with a club option for 2018, so it’s possible the Red Sox could even see Smith as an eventual long-term replacement at closer. Smith (and Elias) are controlled through the 2020 season and aren’t even eligible for arbitration until 2018.

Overview

The Price and Kimbrel acquisitions were two of the offseason’s biggest moves, though in terms of sheer volume of transactions, it was a relatively quiet winter by Red Sox (or Dombrowski) standards. The Sox offseason had the feeling of a team adding some finishing touches to a contender rather than looking to overhaul a last-place unit. The Sox clearly seem to think they’re closer in form to the everything’s-clicking team that went 34-26 down the stretch in 2015 rather than the struggling unit that began the year with a 44-58 record. If another piece is needed during the season and the Sox are in contention, Dombrowski is no stranger to making a big deadline trade for additional upgrades.

There’s certainly enough talent on Boston’s roster to make a quick turnaround very feasible…though the same thing could’ve been said last offseason when the Sox were coming off another last place finish. An ace in the rotation and an ace in the bullpen can only do so much if multiple key members of the roster continue to underachieve.

How would you grade the Red Sox offseason? (Mobile app users, click here to access the poll)

How Would You Grade The Red Sox Offseason?

B 53% (1,477)
A 30% (831)
C 13% (347)
F 2% (69)
D 1% (41)

Total votes: 2,765

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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2015-16 Offseason In Review Boston Red Sox MLBTR Originals

Offseason In Review: Pittsburgh Pirates

By charliewilmoth | at March 24, 2016 7:50pm CDT

This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s Offseason In Review series. The full index of Offseason In Review posts can be found here.

The Pirates’ offseason didn’t feature the kinds of decisive signings or trades that might convince fans the Bucs are ready to follow up on their terrific 98-win 2015 season, but that’s par for the course for an organization whose recent successes have been built more on sly under-the-radar moves than on heavy spending.

Major League Signings

1B John Jaso: two years, $8MM
P Neftali Feliz: one year, $3.9MM
P Juan Nicasio: one year, $3MM
IF David Freese: one year, $3MM
UT Sean Rodriguez: one year, $2.5MM
P Ryan Vogelsong: one year, $2MM
P Trey Haley: Major League contract
1B/OF Jake Goebbert: Major League contract

Notable Minor League Signings

Matt Joyce, Cory Luebke, Eric O’Flaherty, Cole Figueroa

Trades And Claims

Acquired P Jon Niese from Mets for 2B Neil Walker
Acquired P David Whitehead from Phillies for P Charlie Morton
Acquired IF Jason Rogers from Brewers for OF Keon Broxton and P Trey Supak
Acquired P Trevor Williams from Marlins for P Richard Mitchell
Acquired P Kyle Lobstein from Tigers for cash

Extensions

Chris Stewart, C: two years, $3MM (plus 2018 option)

Notable Losses

Walker, Morton, A.J. Burnett (retired), J.A. Happ, Pedro Alvarez, Antonio Bastardo, Joakim Soria, Joe Blanton, Aramis Ramirez (retired) Vance Worley, Travis Snider

Needs Addressed

Critiquing a Pirates offseason is intimidating, because you feel like the team is daring you to admit you don’t really know what you’re talking about. Many commentators greeted recent past Pirates offseasons with ambivalence or even derision for being built around seemingly off-brand additions of players like A.J. Burnett, Russell Martin, Francisco Liriano, Mark Melancon and Francisco Cervelli … who then turned out to be core members of excellent teams. Whoops.

So what to make of the Pirates’ past winter, which featured the departures of key players like Burnett, Neil Walker and J.A. Happ and additions of a slew of low-cost replacements like Ryan Vogelsong, Juan Nicasio and John Jaso? Your guess is as good as mine. On the surface, it doesn’t look like the Pirates did nearly enough. But then, that’s how previous offseasons have looked too, and the last several have mostly turned out brilliantly.

The 2016 Bucs will have a new-look infield, with Pedro Alvarez and Walker departing to make room for Jaso and Josh Harrison (who will take over for Walker at second). Alvarez hit 27 home runs in 2015, but the Pirates non-tendered him anyway, a move that was entirely justified — Alvarez struck out frequently and hit for low batting averages, and his defense was inexplicably awful after moving across the diamond to first base. He was unlikely to produce enough value to earn the $8.1MM he was set to make in arbitration, so he had no trade value, and it’s not surprising the Bucs opted to let him depart.

To replace him, they signed Jaso to a cheap two-year deal. Like Alvarez last year, Jaso will be new to first base, but most players’ efforts to move to first from another position go better than Alvarez’s did. Also, as FanGraphs’ Jeff Sullivan has pointed out, catchers have generally fared well in transitioning to first base — think of Scott Hatteberg, Jason Phillips or Joe Mauer. Jaso doesn’t have nearly the power Alvarez did, but he does have a career .361 on-base percentage that should play well at first, particularly at just $4MM per season. Jaso, a left-handed hitter, needs to be platooned, but the Pirates already had righty first baseman Michael Morse under contract and top prospect Josh Bell in the minors, and their acquisitions of David Freese and Jason Rogers this offseason give them plenty more righty first base depth should Morse falter.

The Bucs then sent Walker to the Mets for Jon Niese. At first glance, this move makes less sense than the Alvarez/Jaso swap did. Walker, unlike Alvarez, is a genuinely good player, a consistent hitter with a broad offensive skill set who will generally produce two to three wins per season. (As a Pittsburgh native, he was a fan favorite to boot.) Niese, meanwhile, is a competent but uninspiring lefty whose strikeout rate dropped to 5.8 batters per nine innings last season. Walker and Niese also have similar salaries, so the Pirates didn’t even really save money in the deal.

Walker, though, was a below-average defender, and was only one year from free agency. Niese, meanwhile, gets ground balls — a skill the Pirates love — and has two options at the end of his contract, potentially allowing the Bucs to keep him for two more years than they could have kept Walker. The Pirates’ acquisitions of starting pitchers have generally gone quite well in recent years, so if pitching coach Ray Searage and company are able to rejuvenate Niese, the Bucs will be able to keep him through 2018 — but also aren’t required to guarantee those seasons if it doesn’t work out.

The long-term plan in Walker’s absence is to use Harrison (who played five positions in 2015) as their regular second baseman and Jung-Ho Kang at third. That plan set them up well defensively, but reduced their depth and wouldn’t work in April, when Kang figured to be battling back from a knee injury he suffered late last season. And so, in a late-breaking move, the Bucs signed Freese to a cheap contract. He’ll man third base until Kang returns, and will likely occupy a variety of roles after that, perhaps eventually displacing Morse as Jaso’s platoon partner. Freese, who’s been an average or better player in five of the last six seasons, was a bargain at $3MM.

The same can’t necessarily be said of some of the Pirates’ other cheap contracts. Sean Rodriguez can, at least theoretically, play seven different positions, but he hits so poorly that his versatility is of limited use. It would have been easy to imagine him signing a minor-league deal this offseason, rather than a $2.5MM Major League contract. Perhaps Rodriguez has value in the clubhouse that isn’t easy for outsiders to see.

Ryan Vogelsong, too, was a questionable use of funds, even though he’ll only make $2MM this season. Vogelsong is 38, has been replacement-level or below in two of the last three seasons, and was demoted to the bullpen last year. He’s in competition for one of the Pirates’ last two rotation jobs, and perhaps with some attention from Searage, he can improve upon his 4.67 ERA last season. Given his age and recent history, however, his upside appears limited.

The Bucs also signed Neftali Feliz for $3.9MM, which seems like a lot to pay a reliever who flamed out badly last season, has persistent control issues and hasn’t had an unambiguously good season (with both good results and good peripherals) since 2010. Feliz is just 27, though, and has good velocity working for him (although he doesn’t throw quite as hard as he did in his first few seasons with the Rangers). He’s also done well in Spring Training thus far, so perhaps he can be a Pirates reclamation project.

A more interesting cheap pitching deal was that of Juan Nicasio (pictured), who has a good fastball and slider (although not much of a changeup) and whiffed 10.0 batters per nine innings in the Dodgers’ bullpen last year. Given his stuff, age (29), service time (4.084 years, allowing the Pirates to control him for 2017 if they like) and ability to start, $3MM for Nicasio seemed like a reasonable gamble, and there are already signs it could pay off, with Nicasio whiffing 24 batters in 15 shutout innings so far in Spring Training. He’s still in competition for a job in the back of the rotation.

The Pirates also made a number of even less costly depth acquisitions. They got starting pitching prospect Trevor Williams in a lopsided, but minor, deal with the Marlins compensating the Bucs for the Marlins’ hires of Pirates executives Jim Benedict and Marc DelPiano. (In particular, the loss of Benedict, who was widely credited with helping many of the Bucs’ pitchers, could potentially be significant for the organization.) A reliever, Trey Haley, arrived from the Indians on a big-league deal but is likely to begin the season in the minors, where he’ll hone his mid-90s fastball, with the Pirates hoping he can improve his control enough to eventually contribute. There’s still some hope that Cory Luebke (who was signed to a minor league deal) can regain his former promise after a long battle with injuries. And fellow lefty Kyle Lobstein, acquired in a minor trade after the Tigers designated him for assignment, could serve as rotation depth or as a lefty out of the bullpen.

More analysis after the break …

The Bucs also acquired two corner infield types in Jason Rogers and Jake Goebbert who were buried by the later acquisitions of Jaso and Freese. (Both can also play outfield but aren’t likely to do so much with the Pirates.) Rogers, who performed well in his first extended stint in the Majors last year, is the more interesting of the two, and the one for whom the Pirates paid the most heavily, giving up speedy bench outfield candidate Keon Broxton and lottery-ticket pitching prospect Trey Supak. Due to the presence of Freese and Morse on the Pirates’ active roster and the fact that Rogers has an option left, though, he’ll probably begin the season with Triple-A Indianapolis.

Along the way, the Bucs quietly extended backup catcher Chris Stewart, a 34-year-old singles hitter with good framing ability who’s had two decent seasons in Pittsburgh, although his total extra-base output in that time amounts to 13 doubles and no triples or homers. Stewart will receive a total of $3MM for his final year of arb eligibility and one free agent campaign, while also giving away an option for another. It’s a tiny guarantee for the Pirates, but a lot for Stewart, who has never made more than $1.225MM in a season.

The Stewart extension suggests (but perhaps does not conclusively prove) that the club is set to move on from Cervelli after the 2016 season, when he’ll be a free agent — Cervelli says the Bucs haven’t discussed an extension with him despite his brilliant 2015 season, and they have a potential replacement in the wings in Triple-A catcher Elias Diaz. Diaz is already a big-league caliber defender, and the Pirates have another excellent defensive catching prospect in the minors in Reese McGuire, but it remains to be seen how they’ll replace Cervelli’s offense if he departs. (Then again, the same could have been said this time last season, when Cervelli was replacing Martin.)

Questions Remaining

Much of the talk around Pittsburgh this offseason focused on another extension for Andrew McCutchen, who will be eligible for free agency after 2018. Both McCutchen and the Pirates have expressed interest in striking a deal, but it seems highly unlikely they’ll consummate one. The Bucs already control McCutchen through his age-31 season at bargain prices, and a meaningful extension beyond 2018 would effectively buy out what are likely to be decline years. A declining Andrew McCutchen could still be a very good player, but a market-value contract would surely cost upwards of $20MM a year, and the always-thrifty Pirates don’t seem likely to spend what could amount to 20% of their payroll on a player in his 30s. (A more realistic extension candidate, perhaps, is toolsy outfielder Gregory Polanco, who maintains he is open to a long-term deal.)

Meanwhile, the 2016 team has more immediate issues, beginning with its rotation. The Pirates could have a very good group starting in the summer, when Tyler Glasnow and perhaps Jameson Taillon could arrive (with the Bucs likely delaying both promotions due not only to development reasons but to the Super Two threshold). But first the Pirates will have to get through the first couple months with at least one and perhaps two of Jeff Locke and Vogelsong in the rotation.

The shortstop position is perhaps another issue. Jordy Mercer can handle the position defensively, but he’s coming off a season in which he hit .244/.293/.320 with just three home runs. He hit 12 in 2014, so perhaps he’ll rebound somewhat offensively in 2016, but if not, maybe it shouldn’t be taken for granted that he’s really a big-league starter. The next man up would likely be Kang, with Freese taking over at third. That alignment would likely cost the Pirates a few runs defensively, but the offensive improvement could make it worthwhile.

Deal Of Note

In mid-December, the Pirates sent Charlie Morton to the Phillies for minor-league pitcher David Whitehead. After the deal, the Pirates insisted they were fans of Whitehead, a former late-round draft pick who posted a 4.44 ERA, 6.2 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 in 135 2/3 innings at Class A+ Clearwater in 2015. But the deal was plainly a salary dump. The Bucs had owed Morton $8MM in 2016, plus a $1M buyout on his 2016 option.

Morton’s seven-year Pirates tenure was uneven, despite being an extreme ground-ball pitcher in an organization designed to help ground-ball pitchers succeed. But the deal left a vacuum in the Pirates’ rotation. At the time, the move suggested that the Bucs intended to replace Morton with one of the many good free-agent and trade options then available, but they acquired Vogelsong six days later and didn’t make any more significant rotation additions. (They’d already signed Nicasio.)

The Morton trade, then, might have been connected to the Pirates’ decision to keep closer Mark Melancon, who will make $9.65MM in 2016 before becoming eligible for free agency. Ordinarily, a reliever like Melancon, the 2015 Trevor Hoffman NL Reliever of the Year award winner, might have netted the Bucs a considerable return in a trade, but perhaps that wasn’t the case this year. Unlike other top relievers who changed teams this winter, like Craig Kimbrel, Aroldis Chapman, Ken Giles and Carson Smith, Melancon doesn’t have a stratospheric strikeout rate, and while he got dominant results with a high ground-ball rate last year, his velocity and other peripherals sagged. “We went into the offseason thinking Mark would be a part of the bullpen until somebody compelled us to think differently,” said Bucs GM Neal Huntington, via the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette’s Stephen A. Nesbitt. “No one did.” Had the Pirates traded Melancon (and elevated the capable Tony Watson to the closer role), perhaps they would have kept Morton, or pursued additional starting pitching help.

Overview

The Pirates’ offseason wasn’t an impressive one on paper, but that’s not a huge surprise. Many fans remain annoyed at the organization’s apparent unwillingness to spend heavily to contend, but given how successful they’ve been with cheap veteran additions lately, perhaps it’s best to wait and see how players like Jaso, Nicasio and Feliz do before critiquing them too harshly.

In the short term, the Bucs will continue to face tough divisional competition from the Cardinals and especially the Cubs. But they have McCutchen for three more seasons, and with a solid core in place, strong lines of communication with which to integrate cutting-edge data into their decision-making, and players like Glasnow and Bell on the way, their short- and long-term futures still appear bright.

What’s your take on the Pirates’ winter? (Link to poll for mobile app users …)

How would you grade the Pirates' offseason?

C 42% (805)
B 36% (690)
D 14% (266)
A 5% (96)
F 3% (65)

Total votes: 1,922

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2015-16 Offseason In Review MLBTR Originals Pittsburgh Pirates

Offseason In Review: Tampa Bay Rays

By Mark Polishuk | at March 24, 2016 9:49am CDT

This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s Offseason In Review series. The full index of Offseason In Review posts can be found here.

The Rays used their bullpen and rotation depth to add some much-needed pop to the lineup. Do they now have enough offense to get back into the AL East race?

Major League Signings

Steve Pearce, 1B/OF: One year, $4.75MM
Ryan Webb, RP: One year, $1MM
Total spend: $5.75MM

Notable Minor League Signings

David Carpenter, Dan Johnson, Dana Eveland, Jaff Decker, Adam Wilk

Trades And Claims

Acquired OF Corey Dickerson and 3B Kevin Padlo from Rockies for RP Jake McGee and SP German Marquez
Acquired SS/OF Brad Miller, 1B Logan Morrison and RP Danny Farquhar from Mariners for SP Nathan Karns, RP C.J. Riefenhauser and OF Boog Powell
Acquired C Hank Conger from Astros for cash considerations
Acquired cash considerations from Indians for RP Kirby Yates
Claimed SP Chase Whitley off waivers from Yankees

Extensions

Logan Forsythe, 2B: Two years, $9.5MM (plus $8.5MM club option for 2018, with $1MM buyout)

Notable Losses

Asdrubal Cabrera, John Jaso, Joey Butler, Brandon Gomes, Grady Sizemore, Daniel Nava, J.P. Arencibia, McGee, Karns, Riefenhauser, Tyler Goeddel (Rule 5 draft), Joey Rickard (Rule 5 draft)

Needs Addressed

Tampa scored the second-fewest runs of any American League team in 2015, so the natural offseason focus for president of baseball operations Matthew Silverman was finding a few big bats. It didn’t take long for Silverman to act on this need, as he swung a six-player deal with the Mariners just four days after the end of the World Series.

The Rays gave up a significant amount in the trade, most notably a 28-year-old righty in Karns who posted strong numbers for Tampa in 2015 and is controllable through the 2020 season. Minor league outfielder Boog Powell is also well-regarded for his speed and defense and is already ranked as one of Seattle’s top 10 prospects by both MLB.com and Baseball America. (The M’s already flipped Riefenhauser to the Orioles as part of the Mark Trumbo trade.) As valuable as Karns and Powell could’ve been to Tampa Bay, however, both were expendable since the Rays are already deep in rotation and outfield options.

The surplus went to good use as the Rays acquired a player they hope can become a regular shortstop in Brad Miller, though Miller’s defense has been unimpressive in spring play. Though he did start 125 games for Seattle last year, Miller’s troublesome glove kept him from breaking through as a true everyday player — the Mariners ended up using him as a super-utility man, starting him at short, third, second and all three outfield spots. He hasn’t shown much defensive aptitude at any position yet, though in fairness to Miller, he also hasn’t gotten an extended look at any spot besides shortstop.

If Miller can at least be adequate at short, the Rays will have the position settled for a year or two until prospects Willy Adames or Daniel Robertson are ready for the majors. If Miller again settles into being a utilityman, that’s not a bad worst-case scenario for the Rays given how they so value multi-positional versatility. The left-handed hitting Miller has a .256/.327/.429 career line against righty pitching and he’s been roughly a league-average hitter overall in his first three seasons.

Morrison also brings some left-handed thump to the Rays’ first base/DH mix, though the former blue-chip prospect is still trying to find consistency as he enters his seventh big league season. He’ll join James Loney, Steve Pearce and Richie Shaffer in the race for playing time at first and DH, though we’ll address that crowded situation later.

Speaking of Pearce, he’s another multi-position player coming to Tampa in the form of the Rays’ priciest offseason signing. Pearce’s unique career arc made him rather a tough player to evaluate from a free agent price standpoint (as our own Jeff Todd and Steve Adams noted in a Free Agent Stock Watch piece last September), and the one-year, $4.75MM deal Pearce received from the Rays fell well short of the two-year, $14MM projection from Tim Dierkes.

Even if Pearce maxes outs his playing-time incentives to up his contract to $6MM, that’s a price the Rays would happily pay if he produces anything close to the 21-homer/.930 OPS numbers he posted over 383 PA with Baltimore in 2014. Realistically, Pearce is more likely to deliver something closer to his career .756 OPS and he gives the Rays a right-handed hitting option at DH, first, second or either corner outfield spot.

The biggest move the Rays made to address their outfield, of course, was the acquisition of Corey Dickerson from the Rockies. There was a lot of trade speculation surrounding Jake McGee this winter, as the former closer was becoming more expensive in arbitration and the Rays had a younger and cheaper ninth-inning option on hand in Brad Boxberger. Both McGee and Boxberger drew a lot of trade interest, and in the end it was Colorado who obtained McGee at the price of a 26-year-old outfielder with four years of club control and an .879 OPS over his first 925 PA in the Show.

This isn’t necessarily a steal for the Rays given that Dickerson is far from a clear-cut star. He’s struggled against both lefties and away from Coors Field, he played only 65 games last season due to a broken rib and plantar fasciitis in his left foot, and he’s been a below-average left field defender over his brief career. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Dickerson struggle as he moves from the game’s best hitters park to pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field. Still, obtaining a promising and controllable outfielder and getting $4.8MM in relief pitching salary off the book is a nice score for Silverman, notwithstanding how well McGee has pitched.

Silverman also may have found a decent replacement for McGee in righty Danny Farquhar, who was also part of the Mariners deal. Farquhar posted a 3.34 ERA, 11.4 K/9 and 3.64 K/BB rate over 126 2/3 innings in 2013-14 before his ERA ballooned to 5.12 last season. An increased and perhaps flukish home run rate may have been to blame, as ERA predictors were more forgiving (4.60 FIP, 4.02 xFIP, 3.60 SIERA) over Farquhar’s performance.

Off the field, perhaps the more noteworthy big-picture move for the Rays was a positive development in their search for a new stadium in the greater Tampa area, as the team was granted permission to explore potential sites for a new ballpark in neighboring counties rather than be limited to just St. Petersburg or stuck at Tropicana Field altogether.

Questions Remaining

While the Rays have an enviable amount of depth, the sheer number of outfield and first base options available for the team is edging from “good problem to have” to simply a problem. Tampa has two lefty bats (Loney and Morrison) and two righties (Pearce and Shaffer) all vying for playing time at 1B/DH. There’s also a likelihood that Dickerson, Evan Longoria and Desmond Jennings will require some DH days as well — Dickerson if his left field defense is still a problem, Longoria to get a break from playing on turf and Jennings to keep fresh after missing almost all of 2015 with knee injuries. Even with Shaffer likely ticketed for the minors, it still adds up to a roster crunch.

Loney has hit .286/.331/.371 over 1039 PA since re-signing with the Rays on a three-year, $21MM contract in the 2013-14 offseason. With another $8MM due to the first baseman in 2016, the Rays were shopping Loney this winter and even offering to eat some of his salary, but no takers were found. Between Loney and Morrison, the Rays have $12.2MM committed to left-handed hitting first base/DH types, both of whom are coming off underwhelming seasons. It’s not a very efficient use of resources for a low-payroll club — it could be that the Rays overestimated their ability to trade Loney, or they simply saw an opportunity to improve the club by adding Morrison and Dickerson and are now resigned to using Loney as a bench player.

There’s also a crowd in the outfield. The usual starting lineup will consist of defensive phenom Kevin Kiermaier playing between Dickerson and Steven Souza, with Jennings and Brandon Guyer both in the mix and several other players (Pearce, Morrison, Miller) able to play a corner outfield spot in a pinch. The depth chart is so loaded that young Mikie Mahtook is almost certainly headed for Triple-A despite posting a .970 OPS in his first 115 Major League PA last season.

It seems likely that the Rays will have to make some kind of a move before Opening Day to free up some of this roster glut. Trading Loney may be wishful thinking for the team, though the Rays will undoubtedly continue to check the market (and at least one team has had a first base opening rather suddenly open up). Jennings might be the next best option given his $3.3MM salary and injury history. Teams would need to see that Jennings is healthy before acquiring him, and it’s worth noting that he has been hitting very well thus far in Spring Training. The Rays already have Guyer available as a cheaper fourth outfielder, and Guyer is quietly coming off a very good (.265/.359/.413 and 2.4 fWAR in 385 PA) season last year.

Another option would be to move Morrison, as Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times recently speculated that the Rays could just stick with Loney at first since he’s the better defender. First base defense could be particularly important for corralling Miller’s throws from short, so what Tampa does at shortstop also has an impact on its roster choices.

It’s worth noting that the Rays at least considered making an uncharacteristically big dip into free agency by checking in on Ian Desmond. The shortstop’s market was greatly narrowed by both his shaky 2015 numbers and (perhaps moreso) the qualifying offer attached to his services that would’ve cost his signing team a top draft pick. That was the stumbling block for the Rays, as they would’ve had to surrender what ended up being the 13th overall pick in the 2016 draft to sign Desmond. That’s a hefty price for a small-market team even if Desmond came at a discount, as he ended up signing a one-year, $8MM deal with the Rangers to serve as their regular left fielder.

It was no surprise that the Rays drew a lot of interest in their starting pitching over the winter, with Jake Odorizzi and Drew Smyly coming up most prominently in trade rumors (though it’s safe to assume the Rays got calls on everyone, even the unmovable Chris Archer). In the end, however, Karns was the only starter dealt, leaving a projected rotation of Archer, Odorizzi, Smyly, Matt Moore and Erasmo Ramirez, with Alex Colome and Matt Andriese on hand as depth and Alex Cobb expected back in July or August from Tommy John rehab. Cobb himself got a lot of trade buzz despite his injured status.

It’s a solid rotation that could be an excellent one if Smyly and Moore are healthy, though there’s enough uncertainty that the Rays may have wanted to keep as much depth as possible. The question now becomes whether Tampa dealt the right arm, as with so many possible trade avenues to choose from, it could be years before we learn if Karns was the best choice to move. Time will tell if, for instance, Tampa would’ve been better off obtaining Jorge Soler or Javier Baez from the Cubs — the two sides were engaged in many talks over the course of the winter, with Odorizzi, Cobb, McGee or Boxberger all mentioned as possible targets for Chicago (though the Cubs were reportedly hesitant to deal either Soler or Baez whatsoever).

Likewise, the Rays will soon discover whether they dealt the right closer. McGee was the logical candidate to go given his salary, though he has quietly been one of baseball’s top relievers over the last four seasons. Boxberger is more prone to allowing walks and homers, plus he’ll be out until at least late May after undergoing core muscle surgery.

The argument could be made that paying McGee $4.8MM would’ve been of more value to the Rays than paying Morrison $4.2MM to be something of a redundancy. With Boxberger out, the Rays have some interesting options (Colome, Xavier Cedeno, Steve Geltz, Farquhar and veteran Ryan Webb) in the pen but obviously that collection would’ve looked better with McGee on top. As the Royals and Pirates have shown in recent years, an elite bullpen is a good way for small-payroll teams to be competitive, and the Rays didn’t strictly need to move McGee until next winter, when Boxberger would also become arbitration-eligible. Also, in terms of big picture savings, dealing McGee will only make Boxberger more expensive when he goes into his first arb year with potentially two seasons of big save totals under his belt.

Tampa Bay parted ways with catcher J.P. Arencibia and replaced him with Hank Conger, who brings a righty-mashing bat and excellent pitch-framing abilities into the team’s mix behind the plate with Curt Casali and Rene Rivera. One can’t mention Conger, of course, without bringing up his incredibly poor job of throwing out baserunners last season — a stunning 42 of 43 runners successfully stole on him. Rivera, conversely, is one of the game’s best defenders behind the plate but can’t hit at all. Catcher has been a trouble spot for a few years in Tampa, and the Rays have to hope Casali builds on his promising 2015 to become the everyday option or else the position could again be an issue.

Deal Of Note

Drafted by the Padres with the 46th overall pick of the 2008 draft, Logan Forsythe never quite emerged in San Diego but was seen as a possible “post-hype breakout” type of player when he was sent to the Rays as part of a seven-player deal in January 2014. Sure enough, everything finally clicked for Forsythe in 2015 when he hit .281/.359/.444 with 17 homers over 615 PA.

Forsythe’s nice season netted him a two-year extension that buys out his two remaining arb years for $10.5MM in guaranteed money. The Rays also have a club option on the second baseman for 2018 worth $8.5MM now, and could be worth as much as $11MM based on plate appearance incentives. Forsythe scores his first big payday as he enters his age-29 season, while the Rays gain cost certainty and some measure of control over Forsythe’s first free agent year.

The Rays are known more for extending young players to long-term deals when they’re still in the early stages of their Major League careers, rather than 29-year-old veterans entering their sixth season in the bigs. While $10.5MM over two years is a fairly modest commitment for most teams, any significant regression from Forsythe will make this contract something of a burden given the Rays’ limited payroll. Still, the extension was a risk worth taking given how Forsythe solidified second base in 2015. While the Rays value platoons and defensive flexibility as much as any team, there’s undoubtedly some relief in having a player emerge and lock up a position.

Overview

Silverman’s second offseason running the Rays was much quieter than his first, though his to-do list was obviously much longer last winter. Tampa Bay managed an 80-82 record on the strength of their pitching and defense last season, so between the lineup improvements and a rotation that will be much closer to full strength, there’s certainly reason to believe the Rays will be in the thick of the pennant race.

As I noted earlier, the Rays’ surpluses in the outfield and at first base make them prime candidates to swing another deal or two before the season begins. While the Rays are expected to use an internal closer-by-committee system while Boxberger is out, the bullpen suddenly stands out as a position of need, perhaps even when Boxberger returns. Tampa could maybe look for a shortstop if Miller’s throwing continues to be a a problem, though the club already has Tim Beckham and Nick Franklin on hand.

It’s otherwise hard to really pinpoint areas of need for the Rays since, on paper, they’re loaded with depth at virtually every position. The flip side of that depth, of course, is that several of the players have at least one big question (be it health-wise, offensively or defensively) hanging over them that clouds how productive they’ll be in 2016.

Still, by focusing on adding position players intended as both long-term assets (Dickerson, Miller) or maybe just one-year fixes (Pearce, Morrison), the Rays hope they’ve added enough pieces around the diamond that their depth will mostly be a luxury and not a necessity to put runs on the board.

How would you grade the Rays’ offseason? (link to poll for mobile app users)

How Would You Grade The Rays' Offseason?

B 50% (449)
C 29% (264)
A 11% (102)
D 7% (66)
F 2% (21)

Total votes: 902

Photos courtesy of Kim Klement/USA Today Sports Images

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2015-16 Offseason In Review MLBTR Originals Tampa Bay Rays

Offseason In Review: Philadelphia Phillies

By Jeff Todd | at March 23, 2016 10:42pm CDT

Check out all the published entries in our Offseason in Review series here.

The new Phillies front office continued the tear-down while adding a wide array of low-cost, low-risk assets in an offseason of continued change.

Major League Signings

RP David Hernandez: One year, $3.9MM

Trades

Acquired SP Vincent Velasquez, SP Brett Oberholtzer, SP Mark Appel, SP Thomas Eshelman, SP/RP Harold Arauz from Astros for RP Ken Giles, INF Jonathan Arauz
Acquired SP Charlie Morton from Pirates for SP David Whitehead
Acquired SP Jeremy Hellickson from Diamondbacks for SP Sam McWilliams
Acquired RP Yoervis Medina from Pirates for SP Jesse Biddle
Acquired 2B Taylor Featherston from Angels for cash/PTBNL

Claims

Claimed OF Peter Bourjos off waivers from Cardinals
Claimed RP Michael Mariot off waivers from Royals
Claimed RP A.J. Achter off waivers from Twins; later claimed by Angels
Claimed RP Dan Otero off waivers from Athletics; later traded to Indians for cash
Claimed RP Bobby LaFromboise off waivers from Angels
Claimed OF Tyler Goeddel from Rays in Rule 5 draft
Claimed RP Daniel Stumpf from Royals in Rule 5 draft

Extensions

None

Notable Minor League Signings

J.P. Arencibia, Andrew Bailey, Emmanuel Burriss, Ernesto Frieri, Frank Herrmann, Cedric Hunter, Edgar Ibarra, Ryan Jackson, Chris Leroux, David Lough, Edward Mujica, James Russell, Anthony Vasquez

Notable Losses

Biddle, Chad Billingsley, Brian Bogusevic, Domonic Brown, Jordan Danks, Chase d’Arnaud, Justin De Fratus, Kelly Dugan, Jeff Francoeur, Giles, Aaron Harang, Erik Kratz, Cliff Lee (declined option), Adam Loewen, Nefi Ogando, Jonathan Pettibone, Jerome Williams

Needs Addressed

If you’ve ever wondered what a modern-day expansion draft would look like, the Phillies’ offseason provides a decent proxy. The organization turned over huge swaths of its 40-man roster, re-stuffing it (and the non-roster invite rolls) with a mix of placeholders, interesting youngsters, and bounceback veterans.

Former GM Ruben Amaro Jr. had already sold off most of the team’s marketable veteran assets, leaving only Ryan Howard and Carlos Ruiz from the 2008 championship club. Truth be told, they’d probably be gone, too, but it’s not entirely clear that either warrants a guaranteed roster spot at this point — let alone anything close to the $35MM and $9MM they’re respectively owed.

Incoming president Andy MacPhail and hand-picked GM Matt Klentak did have one major trade piece to market, however: young closer Ken Giles and his five remaining years of control. He might well have been retained had he played any other position, but the new Phillies brass was probably wise to cash in the fireballing righty while his value was high. There aren’t any sure things in the return, but Vincent Velasquez and Mark Appel have their share of upside, with late-inning relief potential if they can’t stick in the rotation. Harold Arauz represents a fun lottery ticket to track, while Brett Oberholtzer and, eventually, Thomas Eshelman could provide some cheap and solid innings.

Stocking future assets remains the unmistakable lodestar of the new front office, but there were near-term roster practicalities to be considered. And 25-man opportunities are their own kind of asset for rebuilding clubs, which can offer veterans a chance to receive playing time, rebuild value, pass on some lessons to the youngsters, and hopefully turn themselves into appealing summer trade pieces. The rotation, in particular, was ripe for would-be comeback tales, with several short-term veterans departing and the inimitable Cliff Lee cut loose, his $12.5MM buyout representing an easy decision given his elbow issues and questionable desire to pitch in 2016.

Convincing intriguing veterans to come to Philadelphia may not have been a fruitful task with the roster ripped down to the studs, so the Phils went after unwanted, mid-priced castaways. Charlie Morton and Jeremy Hellickson offer the promise of some stability and will help prevent the need to press younger arms for non-developmental reasons. At $9MM (including option buyout) and $7MM, respectively, they aren’t obvious values. And neither seems particularly likely to be worthy of a qualifying offer after the season. (Morton’s option turned into a mutual one with the deal, so he’ll likely decline it if he’s productive and healthy.) But the TV-rich Phillies have pared their payroll to levels not seen since 2003 even with those additions, neither pitcher required much in the way of player assets to acquire, and sturdy performances over the season’s first few months could turn the pair into trade chips.

Those two starter additions constituted the largest salary commitments of the winter, with the Phillies only making one major league signing. David Hernandez seemed penciled in as the team’s closer, and figures to have a chance at the role with a $3.9MM guarantee in hand, but he’s been taking it slow this camp given his history of arm injuries. He isn’t controllable past this season, so the bet is that his arm will stay healthy and that he’ll come close enough to his double-digit K/9 numbers of yore to anchor the pen and, perhaps, turn into prospects on or before August 1st.

Otherwise, the Phillies turned their spring home of Clearwater, Florida into a veritable island of misfit toys — while mixing a group of young but talented prospects — ultimately inviting 65 players to big league camp. The new front office plucked seven players from DFA limbo, whether by trade or claim, though it later lost two of those through the same process in the course of making yet more additions. It also added a host of minor-league free agents. We’ll walk through the more significant among them in tackling the team’s many areas of uncertainty.

Read on for more analysis …

Questions Remaining

The rotation is largely set, with Morton and Hellickson joining promising youngsters Aaron Nola and Jerad Eickhoff, each of whom will look to build off of excellent debuts last year. Velasquez had flashes of excellence last year in Houston, and ought to get a chance to stick as a starter in Philly. He and Adam Morgan appear to be the final two candidates for the fifth spot, but both will probably have their chances over the course of the season. Other younger options — including recent trade additions like Appel, Alec Asher, Jake Thompson, Zach Eflin, and Ben Lively — could eventually earn an opportunity in 2016. On the whole, while there’s plenty of uncertainty in the staff, the course seems largely set for the season to come.

There’s less excitement in the pen, but it too doesn’t lack for options. The aforementioned, out-of-options Oberholtzer appears headed to the pen as a long man to open the year, but will also provide rotation depth. Severino Gonzalez is another swingman option. Hernandez may face competition for the 9th-inning job from minor league signee and former closer Andrew Bailey, who has impressed in limited action this spring. Dalier Hinojosa is also said to be in the mix as well and will play a major role regardless. Jeanmar Gomez, Luis Garcia, and Hector Neris all had good results last year and remain as right-handed options. They are joined by a host of minor league signees, including former late-inning relievers Edward Mujica (who’s been stingy this spring) and Ernesto Frieri (who hasn’t). Yoervis Medina has also had quality showings in the majors; he represents the return for one-time top prospect Jesse Biddle, whose arm troubles proved too risky to keep a roster spot. On the southpaw side of things, beyond Oberholtzer, the club could give a chance to Rule 5 pick Daniel Stumpf, hope that Elvis Araujo can build on a solid 2015, or hand a spot to minor league free agent James Russell — all while awaiting the return of TJ patient Mario Hollands. There are a lot of moving parts here; the Phils will presumably cycle through possibilities over the year to see what sticks while managing the varying contractual situations of all the candidates.

There aren’t a lot of battles in the infield, where everyone is watching to see if Maikel Franco can build on his exciting debut while waiting for J.P. Crawford to join him on the left side. Second baseman Taylor Featherston obviously has Klentak’s eye, as he was carried as a Rule 5 pick last year by the Angels (where Klentak was AGM) before being claimed this winter by the Phils. He’ll get some needed seasoning in Triple-A but could take another MLB opportunity at some point. In the meantime, Freddy Galvis, Cesar Hernandez, and Andres Blanco will hold down the fort in the middle infield. First base looks to be a platoon of Howard and Darin Ruf, while Cameron Rupp figures to see the bulk of the time behind the plate in front of Ruiz. Veteran J.P. Arencibia is also on hand, and solid prospects Jorge Alfaro and Andrew Knapp are backstops on the rise — though it’s not clear whether either will be ready for major league time this year. While Galvis, Hernandez, Ruf, and Rupp are a relatively youthful (and inexpensive) group, they’d be playing much less significant roles in most other organizations. It’s a situation ripe for turnover as the season progresses.

The Phillies outfield, meanwhile, is yet more susceptible to ongoing tinkering. Odubel Herrera is sure to get a chance to entrench himself in center after turning into one of the best Rule 5 choices of recent memory last year, though he’s been slowed by a finger issue. He’s joined in camp by this winter’s top Rule 5 selection, Tyler Goeddel, bounceback candidates like the swift and rangy Peter Bourjos and glove man David Lough, and minor league signee Cedric Hunter (who has only the barest MLB experience — a cup of coffee back in 2011 — but has performed well this spring). Another option is Darnell Sweeney, who could also see time in the infield dirt. Converted third baseman Cody Asche may enter the picture if he can get healthy, as could well-regarded prospects Roman Quinn and Nick Williams if they come along in the upper minors. All told, there’s a real lack of depth here, especially with interesting youngster Aaron Altherr set to miss most or all of the year following wrist surgery. Unsurprisingly, the Phils have held some discussions about adding to this mix, and may well end up scouring the waiver wire and opt-out market to bolster their ranks.

Deal of Note

Some felt the Phillies might look to make a splash or two in free agency with a robust market that included some younger options, but that never felt terribly realistic. Really, the major question entering the winter was whether the time was right to make a move on Giles, who has established himself as a late-inning force at age 25.

The front office could certainly rolled the dice and waited, as the organization did last year with Cole Hamels. Relievers tend to hit peak value during the summer, and it’s possible to imagine that Giles might have been a top trade target at the deadline — particularly since many other top options are situated on likely contenders.

Ultimately, though, Giles was cashed in this winter. And given the quality and depth of the return, it’s not hard to see why. To be sure, young relievers with his track record can be hard to find, but given the well-documented volatility of pen arms, it made good sense to do a deal when presented with significant value.

The two headline pieces — Velasquez and Appel — may not turn out to be quality starters in the long run. The former has an impressive arsenal but lacks elite control, while the latter has yet to harness his own power repertoire in the minors. But Philadelphia has the time and patience needed to give both a chance to fail in the rotation. Importantly, too, there’s good reason to think that both have an excellent chance of functioning as quality late-inning pieces — possibly even approaching, even if not eclipsing, Giles in terms of quality.

The remainder of the deal has value, too. Oberholtzer may only end up as a placeholder, but he’s just 26 and has ample control remaining, potentially making him a useful swing piece for years to come. And while the 21-year-old Eshelman doesn’t have big-time stuff, he was worthy of a second-round pick and slightly under-slot $1.1MM bonus last year and could move reasonably quickly as a polished collegian with outstanding control. (As for the two, unrelated Panamanian youngsters by the same surname who changed hands in this deal, it’s anybody’s guess.)

All in all, the package has its share of upside to go with a reasonable floor, and it doesn’t seem terribly likely to impact the team’s timeline for a return to contention.

Overview

While Phillies fans are settling in for another losing campaign, there’s certainly quite a lot to look forward to in the coming season. Many of the organization’s most promising farmhands are nearing MLB readiness — if they haven’t reached it already — and the big-budget club may well consider some reasonably aggressive promotions to get an idea of its contention timeline and mid-term needs.

There’s still a lot of work to be done, of course, in both talent accumulation and development. But the club has just $26MM on the books past the present season, allowing ample flexibility to add big league pieces as a new roster core takes shape. Exciting times may not be far off.

Now, it’s your turn to weigh in on things (link to poll for mobile app users):

How would you grade the Phillies' offseason?

B 46% (1,027)
A 32% (701)
C 14% (317)
D 4% (97)
F 3% (74)

Total votes: 2,216

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2015-16 Offseason In Review MLBTR Originals Philadelphia Phillies

Offseason In Review: Baltimore Orioles

By Mark Polishuk | at March 23, 2016 8:02am CDT

This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s Offseason In Review series. The full index of Offseason In Review posts can be found here.

After years of modest-to-little offseason spending, the Orioles exploded for the biggest spending spree in club history. A lot of familiar faces are back for another AL East run, though the O’s still have some questions to answer in the rotation.

Major League Signings

Chris Davis, 1B: Seven years, $161MM
Darren O’Day, RP: Four years, $31MM
Yovani Gallardo, SP: Two years, $22MM (includes $2MM buyout of $13MM club option for 2018)
Hyun Soo Kim, OF: Two years, $7MM
Matt Wieters, C: One year, $15.8MM (accepted qualifying offer)
Pedro Alvarez, 1B: One year, $5.75MM
Zach Phillips, RP: One year, $510K
Total spend: $243.06MM

Notable Minor League Signings

Dale Thayer, Steve Tolleson, Paul Janish, Julio Borbon, Hideki Okajima, Mike Carp, Jeff Beliveau, Alfredo Marte, Sam Deduno, Nathan Adcock, Todd Redmond, Cesar Cabral, Audry Perez, Pedro Beato

Trades And Claims

Acquired 1B/OF Mark Trumbo and RP C.J. Riefenhauser from Mariners for C Steve Clevenger
Acquired SP Odrisamer Despaigne from Padres for SP Jean Cosme
Acquired OF L.J. Hoes from Astros for cash considerations
Acquired C Francisco Pena from Royals for cash considerations
Claimed P Vance Worley off waivers from Pirates
Claimed IF/OF Joey Terdoslavich off waivers from Braves
Claimed OF Joey Rickard from Rays in the Rule 5 draft

Extensions

None

Notable Losses

Wei-Yin Chen, Steve Pearce, Gerardo Parra, Junior Lake, David Lough, Rey Navarro, Steve Johnson, Ji-Man Choi (Rule 5 draft), Clevenger, Riefenhauser

Needs Addressed

If the theme of the Orioles’ offseason was unexpected spending, the tone was set early on when Matt Wieters accepted the team’s one-year, $15.8MM qualifying offer to return for the 2016 season. With Caleb Joseph and Steve Clevenger already lined up as the new catching tandem, Wieters’ return created a bit of a surplus, so Clevenger was dealt to Seattle as part of a trade that saw Mark Trumbo come to Baltimore.

Trumbo will see some time as the Orioles’ designated hitter against lefty starters, but he’ll probably spend most of his time in right field, where he has posted below-average (-10 defensive runs saved, -11.8 UZR/150) metrics. The O’s will live with that lack of glove work as long as the move to Camden Yards suits Trumbo’s power bat. Trumbo has 131 homers in 2760 career PA despite playing much of his career in pitcher-friendly ballparks in Seattle and Anaheim, though the challenge for him has always been getting on base.

Through Trumbo was on hand as a possible first base replacement, the O’s were focused on Chris Davis as their top winter target and eventually re-signed the slugger on a team record seven-year/$161MM contract ($42MM of which is deferred). It was a stunning outlay, especially considering that talks between the two sides seemed to stall at one point over a $150MM offer, though that could have just been some negotiating gamesmanship on Baltimore’s part. Still, the $161MM figure topped expectations, especially considering that Davis’ market seemed rather quiet — the Tigers were the only other club known to have a clear interest in Davis (as a left fielder, rather curiously), with the Red Sox, Cardinals and Blue Jays also rumored to have at least explored a signing at some point.

Another Scott Boras client joined the Orioles in Pedro Alvarez, who will more or less be a full-time DH in his first stint in the American League. It’s possible that Alvarez’s one-year, $5.75MM deal could be one of the offseason’s biggest bargains given the move to Camden — like Trumbo, he has shown big power in a pitcher-friendly environment, launching 111 homers over the last four seasons despite playing home games at PNC Park. Perhaps more importantly for the defensively-challenged Alvarez, he can now focus exclusively on hitting in the DH role, and also be protected from tough lefty pitching due to Trumbo’s presence. Alvarez isn’t a flawless signing, of course, as we’ll explore in the “questions remaining” section.

Gerardo Parra left to join the Rockies, and while the Orioles explored some bigger names in the outfield (more on that later), they addressed their corner vacancies in the form of Trumbo and Korean signing Hyun Soo Kim. The O’s have been quite active in the international market under Dan Duquette (with Wei-Yin Chen standing out as the only real success story) and the club hopes Kim can be a solid option in left on at least a platoon basis. The 28-year-old Kim posted monster numbers over 10 seasons in the Korean Baseball Organization, and he’ll form the left-handed hitting side of a platoon with Nolan Reimold slated for time against opposing southpaws. Rule 5 draft pick Joey Rickard could also see some at-bats against left-handed pitching as the O’s endeavor to keep him on their 25-man roster.

With these new options in the outfield and at first base, the Orioles were comfortable letting Steve Pearce leave in free agency, although they did have some discussions about bringing back the veteran utility man. Pearce ended up staying in the AL East, signing a one-year deal with Tampa Bay.

On the bullpen front, the Orioles bought back a familiar face in Darren O’Day, inking the long-time setup man to a four-year, $31MM deal. The signing may have been extra sweet for the Orioles since their beltway rivals in Washington were reportedly O’Day’s second choice and he came very close to signing with the Nationals. O’Day and closer Zach Britton will again team up to headline what should continue to be a very solid Baltimore bullpen that also stands to benefit from full seasons out of Mychal Givens and oft-injured, out-of-options prospect Dylan Bundy.

What’s an Orioles offseason without a medical controversy surrounding a signing? This time it was Yovani Gallardo who ran afoul of Baltimore’s notoriously stringent physicals, as the original three-year, $35MM agreement morphed into a two-year, $22MM contract with a $13MM club option for 2018 after the O’s discovered an issue with Gallardo’s shoulder.

Of course, durability is Gallardo’s chief calling card: the righty has averaged 32 starts and 191 innings per season since 2009. Though his strikeout rate has steadily dropped over the last three years and he posted just a 5.9 K/9 last season (against 3.3 BB/9), Gallardo has posted at least 2 fWAR in each of the last four seasons and proved last year in Texas that he could succeed against American League lineups.Read more

Questions Remaining

In terms of being a pure replacement for Chen, Gallardo matches up quite well since the two have been almost equally valuable since 2012. Considering that Chen is seven months older and cost the Marlins a five-year, $80MM commitment (albeit with an opt-out clause), the O’s did well on paper in landing Gallardo at a fraction of the money and years.

The bigger question, of course, is that if Gallardo merely replaces Chen’s production, it won’t do much to help a rotation that badly struggled in 2015. If Chris Tillman and Miguel Gonzalez both scuffle again, Ubaldo Jimenez reverts to his 2014 form and Kevin Gausman doesn’t take the step forward from promising young arm to reliable front-of-the-rotation starter, Baltimore is going to have to win a lot of slugfests.

It could be that the Davis negotiations prevented the O’s from pursuing one of this winter’s top free agent aces. For all of the money the Orioles spent this winter, they had to keep a lot of powder dry to land Davis, who didn’t sign until January. By that time, many of the biggest pitching names on the market were already long gone. Since the O’s were able to add several bats with first base experience anyway and had a clearer need for pitching than hitting, it could be argued that Baltimore should’ve prioritized an ace rather than a top slugger like Davis. Such a strategy might ultimately have been a non-starter, however, given how owner Peter Angelos is so hesitant about any kind of major pitching signing.

Also on the pitching front, the O’s were linked to such names as trade target Hector Santiago (who thought he was on the verge of being dealt to the Orioles in November) and free agent Scott Kazmir, whose injury history could’ve led to an interesting run through the Baltimore medical gauntlet. Baltimore did add one depth option in Odrisamer Despaigne, who will join Mike Wright and Tyler Wilson as the Orioles’ first line of rotation replacements.

While Trumbo and Alvarez bring a lot of pop, they also bring a lot of whiffs to a club that already had the third-highest strikeout rate in the game. Neither slugger is much of an on-base threat and both are defensive liabilities, though playing one of them regularly at DH should mitigate a bit of that last concern.

It’s fair to say that Trumbo would be slated as the regular DH and Alvarez wouldn’t be on the roster at all had Baltimore succeeded in landing one of their top outfield targets. The Orioles were linked to Jay Bruce and Nick Markakis in trade rumors and were also connected to several of the offseason’s biggest free agent outfielders — Justin Upton, Alex Gordon, and Yoenis Cespedes. Had the Davis talks fallen through, the O’s would likely have made a harder run at any of these three, though they reportedly made Cespedes an offer in the five-year, $90MM range when negotiations with Davis were at an impasse. It’s worth noting that Upton and Cespedes both signed contracts with opt-out clauses, which the Orioles refuse to offer.

That stance against opt-outs may have cost them Dexter Fowler, who had one of the offseason’s stranger free agent stints. Fowler was still unsigned in late February thanks to the qualifying offer dragging down his market, though for a couple of days it seemed like the Orioles were going to add both Gallardo and Fowler to three-year deals in the $33-$35MM range. Instead, Gallardo signed his two-year deal and Fowler didn’t sign at all, surprisingly returning to the Cubs on a one-year contract when several media outlets were reporting an agreement with Baltimore. The situation led to some strong displeasure expressed by Fowler’s agent Casey Close, though it seems the two sides were never as close as reports indicated. Without Fowler to solidify right field, the O’s will have to get by with Trumbo’s shaky defense.

Deal Of Note

The O’s were ultimately comfortable in surrendering their first-round pick (14th overall) to sign Gallardo, and they did recoup another first-rounder (27th overall) as compensation for Chen. All in all, Baltimore will have five picks between the #27-91 selections of this year’s draft, and you wonder if the team wasn’t hoping for an even bigger draft haul in the form of an extra pick from Wieters’ free agency.

Wieters’ acceptance of the qualifying offer caught many by surprise, perhaps even a few in the Baltimore front office. If a return wasn’t in the cards, then that move was unquestionably the biggest domino to fall in the Orioles offseason. If Wieters turns down the QO, then Clevenger isn’t dealt and perhaps Trumbo stays in Seattle…then perhaps the Orioles have more pressure to get a deal done with Davis and sign him earlier…and then maybe the O’s have time to get in on a top starter who’s still on the market while they have an extra $15.8MM to spend. The possibilities are endless.

Not only was Wieters projected to be the top free agent catcher on the market, it was doubly stunning that a Boras client was one of the first three players to accept the QO given how the agent has so disparaged the qualifying offer system. Still, in this context, the QO isn’t too different from the “pillow contract” strategy that Boras himself has pursued with other clients. Wieters was limited to just 101 games over the last two seasons due to Tommy John surgery, and had an overall subpar year at the plate when healthy and playing 148 games in 2013.

MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes predicted Wieters would land a four-year, $64MM deal this winter simply due to his potential, track record and the lack of catching depth on the open market, though given how other players (including some notable Boras clients) have been affected by the qualifying offer, Wieters’ list of suitors could’ve been shorter than expected.

Rather than risk settling for a below-expectations contract, Wieters decided to take the $15.8MM (not a bad payday at all) on the table and spend another year in a familiar situation in order to improve his stock for next winter’s free agent market. Staying healthy will be key, of course, and Wieters’ spring has already been interrupted by some elbow discomfort.

The 2016-17 free agent class is notably thinner than this year’s crop, so if Wieters is healthy and productive, he’ll be in much better position to land that huge multi-year deal. Assuming he signs elsewhere after a strong campaign, the Orioles will still get their compensatory first-rounder for Wieters, just a year later than expected.

Overview

In Duquette’s first four offseasons as Baltimore’s executive VP of baseball operations, the team spent roughly $116MM combined on Major League free agents. Needless to say, the O’s adopted a much different strategy towards the open market this winter, more than doubling that $116MM total. You had to figure some increase was necessary given how many key names were free agents, though the sheer amount of spending raised eyebrows. Only the Cubs, Tigers and Giants dedicated more to MLB free agents than the Orioles did this winter, and their total would’ve been even higher had they successfully landed Fowler.

Bringing back three of their own free agents is a clear sign that Angelos and Duquette believe in the core of this team, and the additional spending on new talent reinforces the notion that the Orioles are counting on a pennant run. With at least $145MM (not counting pre-arbitration salaries) already committed to the payroll, it’s a safe guess that they’ll be comfortable spending more at the trade deadline to add another piece if they’re in contention.

That piece may well end up being a starting pitcher, as despite all of the spending, the Orioles are really just doubling down on their recent strategy of winning games via a big offense and a strong bullpen. A lack of starting pitching depth won’t necessarily doom a team (just ask last year’s Royals and Blue Jays), though a lot will have to go right for Baltimore’s rotation to just be average. Still, an average rotation may be all it takes considering the Orioles will be rolling out a lineup that includes Manny Machado, Adam Jones, Davis, Trumbo, Alvarez, Wieters, an emerging talent in Jonathan Schoop and maybe a hidden gem in Kim.

How would you grade the incredibly busy Orioles’ offseason? (link to poll for mobile app users)

How Would You Grade The Orioles' Offseason?

B 52% (1,080)
C 25% (518)
A 14% (296)
D 7% (150)
F 2% (44)

Total votes: 2,088

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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2015-16 Offseason In Review Baltimore Orioles MLBTR Originals

2017 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings

By Tim Dierkes | at March 22, 2016 10:49pm CDT

The 2015-16 MLB free agent class is winding down, and it’s time to turn our attention to the 2016-17 group. These players project to become free agents after the 2016 season, unless they sign contract extensions first. Extensions seem unlikely for the top names. Players may be reluctant to sign now, as the 2016-17 class appears weak. MLBTR’s full list of 2016-17 free agents can be found here.

What exactly are we ranking here? The simplest explanation would be earning power. These rankings represent expected contract size, assuming each player reaches the open market and goes to the highest bidder. Of course, nothing affects a free agent’s earning power more than his most recent season, so I’ll be updating these rankings monthly.

1. Stephen Strasburg. The first overall pick in the 2009 draft, Strasburg has been very good in his Nationals career but hasn’t quite lived up to expectations. One could draw a parallel with one of last winter’s top free agents, Justin Upton. Of course, it’s different with pitchers, and over the years Strasburg’s only limitation has been health. After tying for the NL lead in strikeouts in 2014, shoulder, neck, back, and oblique issues limited Strasburg to 23 big league starts in 2015. After the season, he had a “small, non-cancerous growth removed from his back,” wrote James Wagner of the Washington Post. Strasburg also has Tommy John surgery in his health history, with the procedure performed in September 2010. Strasburg’s agent, Scott Boras, enjoys a well-known cozy relationship with the Nationals. The team generated controversy in 2012 when Strasburg was shut down at 159 1/3 innings with the team headed to the playoffs, a decision unsurprisingly supported by Boras. Now, if Strasburg can muster up his second career 200-inning season along with his typical dominance, Boras will seek to shatter David Price‘s record contract for starting pitchers, which was for seven years and $217MM with the Red Sox. As with Price, opt-out clauses will factor heavily into the discussion. Strasburg doesn’t turn 28 until July, so he’ll be about two years younger than Price was.

2. Carlos Gomez. Gomez took big steps forward after being traded to the Brewers in November 2009, and posted a career-best 19 home runs in 2012. In the spring of 2013, with free agency looming after the season, Gomez signed a surprising three-year extension with Milwaukee. He went on to put up monster seasons in 2013 and ’14, but was derailed in 2015 with hamstring and hip issues. A near-trade to the Mets fell apart in July when New York backed out for various reasons, but he was successfully traded to the Astros the following day. Similar to Strasburg, a healthy season will go a long way for Gomez, who is also represented by Boras. The center fielder could land a deal north of $150MM if he returns to his 2014 level of health and production.

3. Yoenis Cespedes. I predicted a six-year, $140MM deal for Cespedes, who reached free agency after the 2015 season. Instead, the 30-year-old slugger turned down multiple five-year offers and returned to the Mets in late January on an interesting high-AAV contract. Cespedes signed a three-year, $75MM deal, with an opt out after 2016. If exercised, Cespedes will have earned a hefty $27.5MM for the ’16 season. If he does opt out, perhaps Cespedes will be coming off a season good enough to ease whatever concerns plagued him this winter, and he can snag that six-year deal in the end. It’s a weaker market for sluggers, as Bautista and Encarnacion are considerably older.

4. Jose Bautista. Bautista, 36 in October, crushed 75 home runs over the last two seasons for the Blue Jays. He’s a late bloomer, having broken out with the Jays in 2010 at age 29 with 54 home runs. While extension talks with Toronto have occurred, Bautista stated in February that he’s “not willing to negotiate” from his asking price, which reports suggest could be five or six years at around $30MM per season. Right now I’m penciling him in for four years and $120MM. Some teams will draw a hard line because of Bautista’s age, but it’s certainly possible for one to throw caution out the window.

5. Edwin Encarnacion. Bautista’s teammate has been prolific in his own right, with 151 bombs over the last four years. He’ll turn 34 prior to the 2017 season, so age is a big factor here as well. Talks with the Jays have stalled over contract length, and you have to think Encarnacion expects at least four years. I could see something like four years and $100MM, though he’d have a good argument for five years if Bautista gets that many first. Encarnacion is more limited in the field, as a DH/first baseman.

6. Josh Reddick. Reddick doesn’t carry the same health or age concerns as the other outfielders on this list. He recently turned 29, and he played in 149 games last year. Reddick has evolved as a hitter, dropping his strikeout rate to 11.2% last year. He’s got 20 home run pop and a good defensive reputation, if not the numbers to back up the latter in recent years. He could be a candidate for a surprising five-year deal approaching $100MM. The A’s are at least exploring an extension.

7. Andrew Cashner. You might be surprised to see Cashner this high on the list. Indeed, his position is tenuous. But in a free agent market starved for starting pitching, Cashner is the type you can dream on. A former 2008 first rounder, Cashner averaged a blazing 94.8 miles per hour on his fastball last year. That ranked sixth in baseball among those with 180 innings. On the other hand, it was Cashner’s first time reaching that innings plateau, and he served up a 4.34 ERA for San Diego. The team chose to hold onto him over the winter, perhaps sensing his value could rise in his contract year. If Ian Kennedy can get five years and $70MM plus an opt-out clause, Cashner could do well in a free agent market for starting pitching that looks much, much worse.

8. Kenley Jansen. Jansen, 29 in September, may be the game’s best reliever. The Dodgers’ closer boasts massive strikeout rates, and he added a career-best walk rate last year. Jansen is practically unhittable, and he doesn’t come with the off-field baggage Chapman does. Jonathan Papelbon‘s record four-year, $50MM contract for relievers could fall, as it’s possible Jansen could land a five-year deal.

9. Adrian Beltre. Though he’s represented by Boras, Beltre stands a fair chance of reaching an extension with the Rangers. The third baseman will turn 37 soon, but a three-year deal would be a fair request. I could see three years and $60MM or more. Though Beltre is winding down a potential Hall of Fame career, he remains a potent hitter and strong defender.

10. Aroldis Chapman. Chapman is right there with Jansen in terms of relief dominance, regularly punching out at least 42% of batters faced. The 28-year-old is the hardest-throwing pitcher alive, averaging 99.5 miles per hour on his fastball last year and over 100 the year before. However, his upcoming free agency is clouded by an incident that occurred at his home last October. In a police report uncovered by Tim Brown and Jeff Passan of Yahoo, Chapman reportedly pushed and choked his girlfriend and fired a gun repeatedly in his garage. Chapman denies harming his girlfriend, but chose not to appeal the 30-game suspension handed down by MLB as part of its domestic violence policy. Even if Chapman avoids further incidents as a member of the Yankees, this one will affect his free agency after the season. Every interested team will conduct due diligence, and perhaps several will emerge with enough comfort to offer Chapman a large four-year deal. At this point, it’s difficult to say.

In the 2015-16 offseason, ten free agents signed for at least $80MM, seven of whom were pitchers. This year, only Strasburg seems likely to reach $80MM, highlighting the lack of depth in starting pitching in the 2016-17 market. After Cashner, there’s names like Jesse Chavez, Jorge de la Rosa, Ivan Nova, Edinson Volquez, Kris Medlen, and Brett Anderson. James Shields and Scott Kazmir each have the ability to opt out of their current contracts and join the market, though it’s unclear whether either will find that worthwhile. On the relief side, Mark Melancon is a high quality arm likely to land in our top 20.

There are a few interesting position players who did not make my initial top ten: Justin Turner, Francisco Cervelli, Matt Wieters, and Neil Walker. Ian Desmond and Colby Rasmus will find themselves back on the market again, barring extensions.

It doesn’t seem likely that the Nippon Ham Fighters will post 21-year-old phenom pitcher Shohei Otani after this season, but if they do it would shake up the MLB free agent market.

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2017 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings MLBTR Originals Newsstand

Offseason In Review: Los Angeles Angels Of Anaheim

By Mark Polishuk | at March 22, 2016 9:21pm CDT

This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s Offseason In Review series. The full index of Offseason In Review posts can be found here.

The Angels made a couple of big trades to shore up the infield, but a payroll crunch led new GM Billy Eppler to address other roster holes in a more cost-conscious way.

Major League Signings

Cliff Pennington, IF: Two years, $3.75MM
Geovany Soto, C: One year, $2.8MM
Daniel Nava, OF: One year, $1.375MM
Al Alburquerque, RP: One year, $1.1MM base salary (only around $275K is guaranteed if Alburquerque is cut before Opening Day)
Craig Gentry, OF: One year, $1MM (split contract, salary only guaranteed if Gentry makes the MLB roster)
Rafael Ortega, OF: One year, $525K
Total spend: $8.45MM guaranteed ($10.5MM with Alburquerque and Gentry on the MLB roster)

Notable Minor League Signings

Javy Guerra, Gregorio Petit, Lucas Luetge, Ramon Ramirez, Quintin Berry, Andrew Brown, Yunesky Maya, Josh Roenicke, Lou Marson, Donavan Tate

Trades

Acquired SS Andrelton Simmons and C Jose Briceno from Braves for SS Erick Aybar, SP Sean Newcomb, SP Chris Ellis and $2.5MM
Acquired 3B/SS Yunel Escobar and $1.5MM from Nationals for RP Trevor Gott and SP/RP Michael Brady
Acquired cash considerations from Indians for OF Collin Cowgill
Acquired cash considerations from Orioles for 1B/OF Efren Navarro
Acquired future considerations from Phillies for IF Taylor Featherston
Acquired 1B/3B Jefry Marte from Tigers for 2B Kody Eaves

Claims

Claimed IF Rey Navarro off waivers from Orioles
Claimed RP A.J. Achter off waivers from Phillies
Claimed RP Deolis Guerra and 1B Ji-Man Choi in Rule 5 Draft
Claimed RP Rob Rasmussen off waivers from Mariners (Rasmussen has since retired)

Extensions

None

Notable Losses

Chris Iannetta, David Freese, David Murphy, Cesar Ramos, Shane Victorino, Matt Joyce, Mat Latos, Dan Robertson, Aybar, Gott, Cowgill, Navarro, Featherston

Needs Addressed

The offseason was only a couple of weeks old when Eppler made his first big splash, landing Andrelton Simmons in a deal that saw longtime shortstop Erick Aybar and top pitching prospects Sean Newcomb and Chris Ellis go to Atlanta. While the Halos were criticized for an overall lack of spending this winter, acquiring Simmons required a significant financial commitment given that he’s owed $53MM through the 2020 season.

At that price, the Angels now have not just baseball’s top defensive shortstop, but perhaps its top defender at any position — Simmons’ career 21.4 UZR/150 is the best of any player from 2002-15. While any team would benefit defensively by adding Simmons, he’s a particularly big upgrade for the Halos given that Aybar posted below-average defensive metrics over the last three seasons. Simmons has shown flashes of hitting potential over his career and he’s still only 26, though he’s so spectacular in the field that he’ll be a valuable asset even if he continues to be a subpar hitter.

The acquisitions of Cliff Pennington and Rey Navarro added to the theme of defense up the middle. Pennington has shown some good glovework at second over his career, while Navarro (who made his MLB debut in 2015) has been regarded as an excellent defensive middle infielder over his nine-year pro career. They’ll be backup options in the middle infield or perhaps even platoon options for Johnny Giavotella at second, who struggled defensively in 2015 and didn’t show too much at the plate.

There’s a chance Yunel Escobar could end up at second if once-touted prospects Kaleb Cowart or Kyle Kubitza emerge, though in all likelihood, the Angels will stick with their plan of using Escobar as the everyday third baseman. After talks of a reunion with David Freese didn’t develop, Anaheim dealt hard-throwing ground ball specialist Trevor Gott to Washington for Escobar and $1.5MM to go towards covering part of the veteran infielder’s $7MM salary.

Escobar was a defensive liability at third last season, though it was his first time playing the hot corner since 2007. Having Simmons play next to him should help in that regard, though the Angels are mostly hoping Escobar can add some pop to the lineup. In his age 32-season, he hit .314/.375/.415 (his highest totals in all slash line categories since 2009) with nine homers over 591 plate appearances for the Nats. Escobar did benefit from a .347 BABIP, however, so it remains to be seen if he can come close to replicating that performance in pitcher-friendly Angel Stadium.

Losing Gott isn’t too big a blow to a fairly deep Angels bullpen, but the club did go on to acquire some low-cost depth in Al Albuquerque, Javy Guerra and a few other notable veteran names on minor league deals. Right-hander and Rule 5 Draft pick Deolis Guerra will also have to stay on the 25-man roster all season or else Los Angeles will lose him back to Pittsburgh.

With Chris Iannetta gone to the Mariners in free agency, the Angels signed Geovany Soto to handle most of the catching duties, though Carlos Perez could end up receiving as much as half the playing time behind the plate. Soto brings the type of defense (particularly in pitch-framing and throwing out baserunners) that manager Mike Scioscia always looks for in his catchers, so he could up being a very good value on his one-year, $2.8MM contract.

Speaking of value, veterans Craig Gentry and Daniel Nava are slated for a left field platoon at the combined price of $2.375MM. On paper, this combo could work quite well — Gentry is a career .274/.354/.366 hitter against lefties while Nava has a .281/.377/.409 slash line against righties. The problem is that neither player has hit much of anything over the last two seasons, so there’s plenty of room for the likes of newcomers Rafael Ortega, Todd Cunningham, Quintin Berry or Gary Brown to earn playing time.

Continue reading after the page break for more analysis …

Questions Remaining

While owner Arte Moreno insisted that he’s willing to go over the $189MM luxury tax threshold in the right circumstance, it seems that this offseason didn’t fit that criteria. Moreno said last month that his team is only about $2MM short of the $189MM limit, as luxury tax payroll is based on average annual value of contracts and bonuses, rather than straight dollar amounts.

Going over the $189MM limit would trigger a 17.5% penalty on the overage, though since the tax rate jumps to 30% for a second year over the threshold, Moreno’s concern was that the Angels wouldn’t be able to avoid a repeater tax in 2017 if they exceeded the limit in 2016. Several big contracts (C.J. Wilson, Jered Weaver, Joe Smith) come off the books next winter, though those savings could be partially offset by large arbitration raises for Garrett Richards and Kole Calhoun, a $2MM salary bump for Simmons and a $4MM bump for Mike Trout.

In summation, Eppler didn’t have much money to spend this winter. Attempts to trade Wilson and his $20.5MM salary for 2016 were unsuccessful, as the Angels weren’t willing to sell low on the lefty just for the sake of unloading him. Hector Santiago and Matt Shoemaker were also the subject of trade speculation, with Santiago seemingly coming close to being dealt to Baltimore in November.

Ultimately, the Angels decided to hang onto all of their notable Major League arms and perhaps with good reason, given that the L.A. rotation has its share of issues. Beyond Richards and Andrew Heaney, the 33-year-old Weaver is battling a bulging disk in his neck and trying to rebound from a few years of injuries and declining velocity. Wilson is dealing with shoulder problems and is facing the possibility of beginning the season on the DL. Santiago, Shoemaker and Nick Tropeano are all battling for a rotation spot. Tyler Skaggs will also return at some point this season (maybe even by late April), though his effectiveness and durability in the wake of Tommy John surgery is unknown.

It’s a rotation that would’ve certainly been helped by one of the notable names in this winter’s free agent pitching market but, again, the Angels’ lack of available spending was a roadblock to any major signings. This was especially true as the Halos looked at ways of filling their holes at second and left field — while they at least touched base with names like Howie Kendrick for second and some of the top-tier outfielders available (Justin Upton, Yoenis Cespedes, Alex Gordon, Jason Heyward), those names weren’t realistic unless Moreno was willing to bite the luxury tax bullet. Kendrick came at a much lower price tag than the outfielders, though he would’ve come at the notable cost of the Angels’ first round draft pick, which now sits at 16th overall now that Kendrick and the other qualifying offer free agents have all signed.

That first rounder is of particular importance given how the Angels essentially cleaned out what was left of their minor league system to land Simmons. When the 2016 Baseball America Handbook not only ranks your farm system last in the league but also adds a joking disclaimer to the listing (“Side effects of reading through the entire Angels Top 30 may include drowsiness and an upset stomach“), one has to question whether dealing Newcomb and Ellis was a wise move. As great as Simmons is with the glove, if Anaheim was willing to deal its two best young arms for a long-term Major League chip, it could be argued that the club should’ve pursued a proven hitter instead. The alternative would’ve been to hang onto Aybar for the last year of his contract and then look for a new long-term shortstop next winter.

Eppler connected on the trades for Simmons and Escobar, though other possibilities were explored on the infield trade market. L.A. was rumored to be interested in Twins third baseman Trevor Plouffe and ex-Pirates second baseman Neil Walker at various points this offseason, though Plouffe stayed put in Minnesota and Walker was dealt to the Mets. On the outfield front, the Angels were one of many teams who called about the Rockies’ outfielders, with Charlie Blackmon being of particular interest to Anaheim. Colorado ended up dealing Corey Dickerson to the Rays, however, so they’re probably done shopping their outfielders for now.

The biggest trade that went by the boards, of course, was the proposed three-team deal with the Blue Jays and Reds that would’ve seen Jay Bruce go to Toronto and Michael Saunders on the move to Anaheim. Saunders would’ve provided more upside in left field than the Gentry/Nava combo, but he would’ve been far from a sure thing given that he missed all but nine games last season due to knee injuries. Speaking of Bruce, there was some speculation earlier this winter that he would’ve been a fit for the Angels, though there wasn’t any indication that L.A. was actually interested.

It wouldn’t surprise me if the Angels still made a move to address left field before Opening Day, since as it stands, the club is really no better off at left or at second now than they were when last season ended. The same could also be said of catcher and third base, as the Halos were content to essentially just match Freese and Iannetta’s production rather than look for substantial improvements.

It all adds up to more or less a treading-water type of offseason for a club that could’ve used some upgrading around the diamond. If the Angels do end up essentially breaking even at catcher, left, second and third, that means the club is relying on C.J. Cron to break out as a consistent power bat, Albert Pujols to recover from offseason foot surgery and return to the lineup as soon as possible, and Calhoun to rebound at the plate. The only sure things Anaheim can truly count on in its lineup are Trout’s continued all-around excellence and great glovework from Simmons and Calhoun.

Deal Of Note

As mentioned earlier, BABIP played a role in Escobar’s big season at the plate. Despite Escobar’s good numbers, however, Freese was actually the slightly more valuable of the two players (2.2 fWAR to 2.1 fWAR) since Freese held a big advantage on defense and was only a bit less productive on offense.

MLBTR predicted Freese would find a three-year, $30MM deal in a very thin third base market this offseason, though interest was scarce and he had to settle for a one-year, $3MM deal with Pittsburgh. I wonder if the Angels have had any second thoughts about obtaining Escobar and paying him $5.5MM for 2016 when they could’ve waited a bit longer and potentially brought back Freese at a lesser price. In fairness to the Halos, Freese’s asking price early in the offseason was undoubtedly a multi-year deal in the neighborhood of $10MM per year, so that early-December trade for Escobar seemed at the time like the thriftier option. The team hardly could’ve imagined that Freese would still be available in March, though by waiting even into January to address third base, Anaheim could’ve landed Freese or perhaps another third baseman (Juan Uribe?). That might’ve both saved the team some money and allowed it to keep Gott (who also could’ve been dealt elsewhere to fill another need).

Freese has his share of question marks as well, so the choice between he and Escobar performance-wise could at best be a wash. (Freese had a slightly elevated .310 BABIP himself last year, it’s worth noting.) The Angels have a $7MM club option on Escobar for 2017 with a $1MM buyout, so if L.A. chooses to part ways with him, it’ll work out to a total price tag of $6.5MM, or more than twice what the Pirates are paying Freese. In an offseason when every dollar counted for the Angels, that extra $3.5MM could’ve been very helpful in going towards other roster needs.

Overview

With the Angels so close to the luxury tax line and with virtually no minor league trade chips left to move, Eppler will have to be very creative in order to make any notable roster adds at the trade deadline. (Though if the team is in contention at midseason, Moreno may decide paying the tax is worth it to chase a pennant.) The team’s long list of waiver claims and minor league signings indicate that Eppler is leaving no stone unturned in search for ways to improve his team, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Angels continue to be very active on the waiver wire all season long.

The Angels were 85-77 last season and a league-best 35-17 in one-run games, which overshadowed the fact that the club actually had a negative (-14) run differential. Was it just a relatively off-year for a core that won 98 games in 2014, or were the Halos simply fortunate to be in the playoff hunt (or even a winning team) whatsoever? With this uncertainty about the Angels’ true talent level in mind, it’s understandable why Moreno may have been unwilling to splurge this offseason after being such an aggressive spender in past years. It could be that Moreno felt this roster was more than one or two big contracts away from contending, or he simply showed some restraint after past big-ticket acquisitions like Pujols, Vernon Wells or Josh Hamilton ranged from disappointing to disastrous.

It wouldn’t be surprising to see Eppler try to move Wilson, Weaver, Smith or even Escobar as the season goes on in order to free up payroll space, even if the Angels are in contention. (Assuming both starters are healthy, of course; it’s also worth noting that Weaver has a full no-trade clause and Wilson can block deals to eight teams.) L.A. could use that saved money to address other needs at the trade deadline, for instance. For such moves to happen, however, Anaheim needs some young players to move from question marks to consistent producers. Shoemaker returning to his 2014 form, Skaggs returning healthy or Tropeano emerging would be hugely helpful to the Angels both for the sake of this season and in the big picture.

Expect the Angels to return to their usual aggressive selves next winter once they get some payroll breathing room and they have a better sense of what they have in several of their young players. As for 2016, they’ll need a few breaks to challenge for a postseason spot in a very competitive American League, though there’s certainly enough talent on board to make it happen.

How would you grade the Angels’ offseason? (link to poll for mobile app users)

How Would You Grade The Angels' Offseason?

C 40% (788)
D 27% (528)
B 19% (375)
F 10% (205)
A 3% (64)

Total votes: 1,960

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2015-16 Offseason In Review Los Angeles Angels MLBTR Originals

Offseason In Review: Houston Astros

By Steve Adams | at March 22, 2016 12:21pm CDT

This is the latest entry in our Offseason in Review series. See a full index of the series here.

The Astros’ famed rebuilding process paid unexpectedly quick dividends in the form of a 2015 ALDS appearance, and they’ll enter the 2016 season with the loftiest expectations they’ve carried in years.

Major League Signings

Tony Sipp, LHP: Three years, $18MM
Colby Rasmus, OF: One year, $15.8MM (accepted qualifying offer)
Doug Fister, RHP: One year, $7MM
Total Spend: $40.8MM

Notable Minor League Signings

Neal Cotts, Wandy Rodriguez, Eury Perez, Cesar Valdez, Edwar Cabrera, Danny Worth

Trades and Claims

Acquired RHP Ken Giles and IF Jonathan Arauz from the Phillies in exchange for RHP Mark Appel, RHP Vincent Velasquez, LHP Brett Oberholtzer, RHP Thomas Eshelman and RHP Harold Arauz
Traded SS Jonathan Villar to the Brewers in exchange for minor league RHP Cy Sneed
Traded SS Jed Lowrie to the Athletics in exchange for minor league RHP Brendan McCurry
Traded C Hank Conger to the Rays in exchange for cash considerations
Claimed RHP Danny Reynolds off waivers from the Dodgers

Extensions

None

Notable Losses

Scott Kazmir, Chris Carter, Chad Qualls, Oliver Perez, Brett Oberholtzer, Vincent Velazquez, Jonathan Villar, Hank Conger, Joe Thatcher, Roberto Hernandez, Samuel Deduno, L.J. Hoes, Robbie Grossman

Needs Addressed

The Astros spent a good bit of time looking at bullpen upgrades at the non-waiver trade deadline but ultimately didn’t pull the trigger on any of their rumored targets, which included Aroldis Chapman and Craig Kimbrel. GM Jeff Luhnow said in July that he sought a “flamethrower” to join a collection of relievers that already came with an eclectic collection of deliveries and velocities. Though the summer trade market didn’t see that desire come to fruition, Luhnow and his staff continued the pursuit into the offseason and were rewarded for their persistence. In acquiring Ken Giles, the Astros not only landed one of the game’s most intriguing young pen arms, but got him for the next five seasons.

That level of control, which includes two campaigns at scarcely more than the league minimum, also dictated a steep acquisition cost. Indeed, Houston parted with five young pitchers in order to land Giles and minor league infielder Jonathan Arauz. Two of the pitchers included in the deal — Vincent Velasquez and Brett Oberholtzer — could step directly onto the Phillies’ Major League roster. Another, Mark Appel, was selected with the first overall pick in the 2013 draft. While Appel has failed to live up to the lofty expectations that accompany that draft status, his raw stuff still gives scouts hope that his numbers will eventually catch up to his talent. Eshelman joins the Phillies as a starter with elite control but a lack of overpowering pitches. It’s possible that within a couple of years, the Phillies will have a pair of starters or at least one starter and a new power arm in the bullpen as a result of the trade. The deal certainly comes with the potential for the Phils to make out with a large quantity of big league arms, but the Astros had depth in their pitching ranks and felt the need for a high-quality, late-inning arm was pressing enough to part with a wide swath of pitching talent.

Joining Giles in the ‘pen will be a returning face for the Astros; Tony Sipp hit free agency but ultimately never changed jerseys, remaining with the team where he experienced a breakout by inking a new three-year, $18MM contract. That deal proved to be the top contract given out to a left-handed reliever this offseason by a wide margin, though Sipp’s excellence against both left- and right-handed opponents over the past two seasons made him a sensible candidate for a three-year commitment from the onset of free agency. (He did, however, top MLBTR’s prediction in terms of annual value.)

By trading both Velasquez and Oberholtzer, the Astros thinned out their Major League pitching depth, leaving them somewhat exposed in the event of rotation injuries. A one-year deal for rebound candidate Doug Fister restored some of that depth, even if the signing essentially pushed Scott Feldman into the role of an $8MM swingman. (Mike Fiers could also float between the rotation and the pen as need and performance dictate.) Fister’s velocity plummeted last season, and his strikeout rate went with it, so there’s very legitimate cause to be concerned that he might never rebound to the form he showed with the Tigers. However, considering the relatively modest price paid to bring the veteran into the fold, the Astros had every reason to take a chance on some degree of resurgence.

The acquisition of Fister may have been made possible by the fact that the Astros were able to jettison the remainder of Lowrie’s three-year contract in that trade with the Athletics. Houston may have been more financially limited than it had hoped entering the offseason due to Colby Rasmus’ acceptance of the qualifying offer, but shedding Lowrie’s $7.5MM salary for the 2016 season and the $6.5MM he’s owed in 2017 (plus a $1MM buyout on a 2018 option) was a well-executed move on Houston’s behalf; Carlos Correa immediately established himself as a superstar with Lowrie sidelined last year, and with Marwin Gonzalez and Luis Valbuena on the roster, the Astros had affordable infield depth that made Lowrie somewhat superfluous.

Continue reading after the page break for more analysis …

Questions Remaining

The Astros have a deep, talented rotation and one of the best middle-infield duos in baseball, to say nothing of a pair of star-level outfielders in Carlos Gomez and George Springer. Rasmus presents a solid enough option in left field, but the club has questions at the infield corners and potentially behind the plate as well. Houston does have two very intriguing first base prospects in A.J. Reed and Tyler White, to say nothing of former top prospect Jon Singleton, who, for all his struggles, is still just 24.

For a club entering the season with championship aspirations, though, it seems odd that Houston didn’t pursue more certainty. There was definite cause to non-tender Chris Carter — and his open-market price tag of $2.5MM indeed reflects that he’d have been overpaid in arbitration — but neglecting to follow up with a short-term first base addition seems like a missed opportunity. Given the moderate cost of acquisition for free agent Steve Pearce and trade chip Adam Lind (who went from Milwaukee to Seattle), the Astros seemingly had opportunities to add a player that could’ve given them early production while their prospects continued developing. With Evan Gattis delivering a rather lackluster output in his first year — at least from an OBP standpoint — any first-base acquisition could’ve shifted into a DH timeshare if and when Reed or White forced the issue. Now, the club will either rely on a rookie or hope that Singleton can tap into some of his former potential early in the season.

Third base, too, might have been an area to add some depth after sending out Lowrie. Late deals for David Freese and Juan Uribe saw each sign for $4MM or less for a single season, but the ‘Stros elected to pass. Adding Freese or Uribe and sliding Valbuena across the diamond to first base — or setting up some kind of platoon rotation — might have provided Houston with some additional certainty that the present roster lacks.

Catcher presents not only a short-term question but a long-term problem as well. Jason Castro has followed up an elite 2013 season with a pair of pedestrian efforts and is slated to hit free agency at season’s end. It’s certainly arguable that, rather than unloading a wealth of pitching talent for a short-stint reliever, Houston would’ve been better suited to use some of that prospect capital to bring in a catching option that could be controlled beyond the 2015 season. With the interesting Jacob Nottingham sent out at the trade deadline to rent Scott Kazmir, the Astros aren’t projected to have a starting-caliber catcher in the upper levels of their farm system. The likes of Jonathan Lucroy and Derek Norris were reportedly available this winter — and may still be — while the Yankees were obviously willing to (and did) part with five years of John Ryan Murphy. If Castro continues to make 2013 look like a significant outlier in his career, the Astros could well find themselves looking for catching help this summer anyhow, and proactively addressing the position seemed logical even before backup Max Stassi underwent wrist surgery.

Deal of Note

Making the qualifying offer to Rasmus was always something of a risk, though it’s possible the Astros were being genuine in saying they were happy to have him at $15.8MM for a second season. Rasmus has certainly played at that level in the past — well above it, in fact — and one could posit that his 2015 campaign was worthy of that kind of compensation, particularly given his relative youth. However, given the amount of ink that has been dedicated to the importance of a positive clubhouse environment for Rasmus, he always seemed like a candidate to take the deal, if offered, based on his enjoyment of the atmosphere in Houston (as Jeff Todd and I discussed in an October edition of the MLBTR Podcast).

Rasmus became the first player ever to accept a qualifying offer, though he was quickly followed by Brett Anderson and Matt Wieters. Doing so shifted defensive standout Jake Marisnick to a fourth outfield role — he may be better suited for that role anyhow — and could make it difficult for Preston Tucker to crack the roster out of Spring Training. Another season worth roughly 2.5 wins (he posted 2.6 rWAR and 2.8 fWAR last year) will make the Rasmus contract well worth it, but with the uncertainty at the infield corners and behind the plate, it’s fair to wonder whether some of Rasmus’ salary could have been better distributed elsewhere.

Overview

The bullpen proved to be Houston’s downfall in the 2015 ALDS, and that area proved to be the club’s focus in the subsequent offseason. Adding Giles not only gives Houston a power arm to close out games — assuming he eventually supplants Luke Gregerson in the ninth inning, even if he doesn’t right out of the gate — it pushes others down the line and thus deepens the setup corps.

However, the biggest boost to Houston’s roster in 2016 will probably be a full year of Correa and a full year of Carlos Gomez, who was acquired at the 2015 trade deadline to enhance the club’s lineup and outfield defense — not only for the final two months of that ’15 season, but also for the upcoming 2016 campaign. Complete seasons from that pair, along with promising young righty Lance McCullers (assuming his current shoulder ailment does not develop into a major injury), promise to provide significant boosts to an Astros club that is hoping to build upon an 86-win effort. The Astros’ extreme rebuild drew plenty of criticism, but the fruits of the farm system built by Luhnow and his staff have manifested at the Major League level and now serve as the foundation for what looks to be years of competitive baseball in Houston.

So, how would you grade the efforts of the Astros this winter? (Link to poll for mobile app users …)

How would you grade the Astros' offseason?

B 54% (726)
C 25% (335)
A 17% (224)
D 3% (47)
F 1% (14)

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