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GM: Brewers To Stay “Open-Minded” On Possibility Of Trading Devin Williams

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Brewers general manager Matt Arnold held a press conference today on the heels of the club being eliminated from the playoffs last week. Arguably the most notable thing he said was in relation to closer Devin Williams. “We have to stay open-minded,” Arnold said, per Adam McCalvy of MLB.com on X. “We’re the smallest market in the league, so that’s something that’s required in this.”

Williams, 30, is slated to reach free agency one year from now. Due to the financial limitations that Arnold referenced, many Milwaukee players have found themselves in trade rumors as they have neared free agency. A player will generally see his salary increase as his window of club control narrows and the Brewers have often preferred to trade such players rather than holding them all the way to free agency.

Josh Hader, who preceded Williams as closer in Milwaukee, was flipped to the Padres at the 2022 deadline when he had just over a year of club control remaining. Corbin Burnes was traded to the Orioles last winter, when he was one year away from the open market. Hader initially came to the Brewers in the 2015 deadline deal that sent a year-plus of Carlos Gómez to Houston alongside Mike Fiers.

Not every Milwaukee player will be traded in this situation. Shortstop Willy Adames was in plenty of rumors last winter but ultimately stayed for his final season of club control. He is now likely to depart but the Brewers will receive compensation if that comes to pass. They will make him a qualifying offer at the start of the offseason and he is sure to reject that while pursuing a long-term deal.

The Brewers are unlikely to bank on the QO path with Williams. As a pitcher, there’s far more risk of him being hurt before getting to that point. The Brewers saw Brandon Woodruff felled by a shoulder injury when he was about a year away from free agency. He ultimately required surgery with a recovery time of more than a year, scuttling the chances of a trade or a qualifying offer. In that case, they agreed to a two-year deal to keep him around through 2025.

Williams himself was injured for much of 2024, missing time due to fractures in his back. On top of that, a QO salary would be steep for a reliever, even one that’s healthy and elite. This year’s QO is going to be $21.05MM and that number is likely to rise by this time next year. The best relievers can get in that vicinity in terms of average annual value. Edwin Díaz has an AAV of $20.4MM on his deal with the Mets while Hader got a $19MM AAV from the Astros.

Having Williams accept a QO for a one-year deal at a high rate wouldn’t be a drastic overpay but the Brewers likely prefer to exchange him for younger and controllable players now. Such trades helped them compose a decent chunk of their current roster. The Hader deal netted them Esteury Ruiz, who they were able to flip for William Contreras. Lefty Robert Gasser was also acquired in that deal, though he won’t be much of a factor in 2025 after undergoing UCL surgery a few months ago. The Burnes trade netted them DL Hall and Joey Ortiz. Hall was injured and ineffective for much of 2024 but could still be a key part of the club’s future, while Ortiz immediately established himself as a piece of the club’s infield and could perhaps replace Adames at short next year.

Williams won’t make a massive amount of money in 2025, relative to the context of Major League Baseball. The Brewers and the righty avoided arbitration last year by agreeing to a $7MM salary for 2024 with a $10.5MM club option and $250K buyout for 2025. They might go for that buyout, as Williams would still be controllable via arbitration even if they take that path. Since he missed significant time due to injury in 2024, MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Williams for a $7.7MM arbitration salary next year.

Per RosterResource, the club had a payroll of $116MM in 2024 but has only $76MM committed for 2025. Triggering club options on Freddy Peralta and Colin Rea would get them close to the $90MM range while the club’s arbitration class is projected for about $37MM. A few non-tenders or trades could knock that down but the club will likely be starting the offseason with a similar payroll to what they had in 2024.

The club could perhaps see less revenue coming in on the broadcast side as their deal with Diamond Sports Group ended and they are pivoting to the direct-to-consumer model in 2025. That’s probably a smart move in the long run since Diamond has been going through the bankruptcy process for a year and a half now, but the cash flow might be a bit slower in the short term.

A salary in the $7-10MM range for a pitcher of Williams’ quality is very affordable, even for a club like the Brewers. Considering a trade would save the club a bit of money for 2025 but would likely be more about helping them compete down the line. Instead of keeping Williams for another year and seeing him depart, potentially for nothing, it makes sense to see if the club can get building-block pieces in return, as they did in the aforementioned deals.

The club will be looking to replace Adames, which could be accomplished via Ortiz or Brice Turang taking over at shortstop. But doing so would open up a hole at second or third base. Sal Frelick moving to third base was explored in 2024 and manager Pat Murphy said that is still on the table going forward, per McCalvy on X, but Frelick is still unproven at the position with only four innings there in 2024. The Brewers normally aren’t big players in free agency and might not have much budget room this winter, so the trade market might be their best bet at filling in the roster.

Despite the aforementioned injuries, Williams continued to perform when on the mound. While the postseason ended on a sour note as Williams blew a save in the club’s final game against the Mets, that was after he posted a 1.25 earned run average in his 22 appearances during the regular season. His 12.5% walk rate was above league average but fairly normal for him, as he struck out 43.2% of batters faced.

Overall, Williams now has a tiny 1.83 ERA over 241 career appearances in the regular season. He has worked around an 11.8% walk rate by striking out 39.4% of opponents and keeping balls in play on the ground at a 48.1% clip. He racked up 36 saves last year, stepping into Hader’s role as the closer, and saved another 14 this year after recovering from his back injury.

Trading Williams would hurt Milwaukee’s bullpen but they could perhaps replace Williams internally, the same way that Williams himself replaced Hader. Trevor Megill had a strong season with a 2.72 ERA. His 27.3% strikeout rate was far lower than Williams’, but he also had a lower walk rate of 7.7%, racking up 21 saves mostly while Williams was hurt. He is set to reach arbitration for the first time this winter with a projected salary of just $2MM and two more seasons of control after that. Guys like Aaron Ashby, Joel Payamps, Bryan Hudson and Jared Koenig also had strong results in 2024 and could be considered for moving up the chain going forward.

Ultimately, whether a trade comes together or not will depend on what the Brewers are offered. But Williams is an elite reliever with an affordable salary, so he should garner interest from just about any club with designs on contending in 2025. It’s not a guarantee that he will be moved but he’s one of the most logical trade candidates for the upcoming winter and the club’s GM essentially acknowledged that the phone lines are open.

Brewers Reinstate Devin Williams From 60-Day Injured List

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Devin Williams is finally ready for his 2024 debut, as the Brewers are reinstating the star closer from the 60-day injured list.  Right-hander Janson Junk was designated for assignment to open up a spot for Williams on the 26-man and 40-man rosters.

An MRI during Spring Training revealed that Williams had two stress fractures in his back, and after a long period of recovery, he is set to return to a big league mound.  Williams has logged four minor league rehab outings this month, tossing four scoreless innings during these last tune-ups.  Despite his long layoff, this was apparently all the rehab work Williams and the Brewers felt was necessary, and he figures to see some action in today’s game with the Marlins.

With the trade deadline on Tuesday, Williams’ return counts as an unofficial sort of midseason acquisition for the first-place Brewers.  Even without their All-Star closer available, Milwaukee’s relief corps has still been one of the more effective units in the game, ranking third in bullpen ERA heading into Sunday’s action.  Trevor Megill has posted a 2.41 ERA and 20 saves in Williams’ absence, but he’ll now drop back into a setup role as Williams returns to ninth-inning work.

Bryan Hudson has also been a key piece of the Brewers’ pen, but since he was just sidelined due to an oblique injury, Williams should be a more than suitable replacement.  The Crew also acquired righty Nick Mears from the Rockies in a trade yesterday, further bolstering the relief corps for the stretch drive and (the Brewers hope) into October.

Williams made his MLB debut in 2019, delivering a 3.95 ERA over his first 13 2/3 innings of big league ball.  After that respectable start to his career, the right-hander has been nothing short of tremendous, posting a sterling 1.75 ERA and a stunning 40.5% strikeout rate over 200 1/3 innings since the start of the 2020 season.  An 11.7% career walk rate and a lack of premium velocity are issues, but Williams has otherwise been one of the game’s best at inducing soft contact and missing bats.  Initially acting as the Brewers’ setup man behind Josh Hader, Williams has seamlessly transitioned into the closer’s job after Hader was dealt at the 2022 trade deadline.

The Brewers acquired Junk from the Angels as part of the Hunter Renfroe trade in November 2022, and the righty has a 5.87 ERA over 15 1/3 innings and seven overall appearances in a Milwaukee uniform.  He spent almost all of the 2023 season in the minors and has been shuttled back and forth between Milwaukee and Triple-A Nashville this year.

Working mostly as a starter during his pro career, Junk was deployed primarily as a multi-inning reliever this season.  Though Junk has only a 6.75 ERA in his eight innings of MLB work in 2024, his 2.55 ERA across 35 1/3 innings in Nashville indicates that he may have unlocked something with this semi-permanent move to the bullpen.  This could make him a candidate to be claimed away by a team in need of bullpen innings, but if Junk does clear waivers, he doesn’t have the ability to reject an outright assignment.  It also stands to reason that the Brewers could try and work out a trade involving Junk prior to the July 30 deadline.

Brewers Notes: Mitchell, Williams, Clarke, Wilken

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Brewers outfielder Garrett Mitchell has been on the injured list all season thus far after suffering a hand fracture during the spring. Reporting in early April suggested he was facing a timeline of about four to six weeks but it may end up being more than that. General manager Matt Arnold informed reporters this week, including Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, that the club is expecting a return around June 1.

It’s the second straight year where Mitchell has been prevented from getting into regular action. He debuted late in 2022 and hit .311/.373/.459 in his first 28 major league games, setting himself up for a prominent role on the 2023 club. But he suffered a left shoulder subluxation in April last year and required surgery, ultimately only playing in 19 games during that campaign.

Mitchell has provided above-average outfield defense and has stolen nine bases in ten tries while hitting .278/.343/.452 in his limited action. That has come with a concerning 38.3% strikeout rate that he and the Brewers would surely love to drop, which likely makes it even more frustrating that he keeps missing out on key development time.

So far this year, the Brewers have been using a regular outfield rotation of Christian Yelich, Jackson Chourio, Blake Perkins and Sal Frelick. During the spring, the club was experimenting with the idea of moving Frelick to the infield but Mitchell’s injury allowed him to go back to his regular outfield job.

Arnold also relayed that reliever Devin Williams is looking at a return around the All-Star break. That roughly aligns with the three-month estimate given when it was reported in March that the closer had been diagnosed with two stress fractures in his back. Taylor Clarke, meanwhile, is looking at a late May return from the meniscus surgery he underwent on his right knee a few weeks ago.

Today, Arnold provided an unfortunate update about prospect Brock Wilken, per Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Wilken was playing for Double-A Biloxi last night when he was hit in the face by a pitch, suffering multiple fractures but no concussion. Once the swelling subsides, Wilken will likely undergo surgery.

Wilken, who turns 22 in June, was the club’s first-round pick last year. Selected 18th overall, the Brewers sent the third baseman through the Complex League, High-A and Double-A last year after drafting him. Baseball America ranked him as the club’s #10 prospect coming into this year while FanGraphs had him at #5.

This news is obviously a bit scary but Arnold says the long-term prognosis is good. Given his potential importance to the club’s future, the Brewers will likely be cautious in getting Wilken back onto the field.

Brewers Select Kevin Herget, Option Aaron Ashby

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The Brewers announced that they have selected the contract of right-hander Kevin Herget, with left-hander Aaron Ashby optioned in a corresponding move. To open a spot on the 40-man roster, righty Devin Williams was transferred to the 60-day injured list. It was reported a few weeks ago that Williams has stress fractures in his back and will be out of action for about three months.

Herget, 33, has logged big league time in each of the past two seasons, spending the 2022 campaign in the Rays organization and the 2023 season with the Reds. He’s posted a 5.74 ERA in 31 1/3 MLB frames, with a 12.6% strikeout rate that’s only a bit more than half the league average but an outstanding 4.4% walk rate. Herget delivered pedestrian numbers in 47 1/3 Triple-A innings with the Reds’ top affiliate last season but was excellent in Triple-A with the 2022 Rays when he racked up 97 1/3 frames with a 2.95 ERA, 24.4% strikeout rate and pristine 3.9% walk rate.

Though Herget doesn’t throw hard (92.6 mph average fastball) or miss many bats, his command is sharp. He’s only walked 6% of the hitters he’s faced in pro ball, including just 6.3% in parts of seven Triple-A seasons. He’s walked only one of his 17 opponents (5.8%) in 4 1/3 shutout innings to start the Triple-A season with the Brewers’ affiliate in Nashville. Herget also has a pair of minor league options remaining, so if the Brewers decide this will be a short stint in the big league bullpen, he can be sent back to Nashville without first needing to clear waivers.

Optioning Ashby is the latest discouraging development in what’s been a frustrating couple of years for the former top prospect. The now-25-year-old lefty debuted late in the 2021 season and impressed down the stretch, fanning nearly 30% of his opponents in 31 2/3 innings. Ashby split the 2022 season between the Brewers’ rotation and bullpen, pitching quite well through the season’s first few months — so much so that Milwaukee signed him to a five-year, $20.5MM contract extension.

That hasn’t gone nearly as well as hoped. Ashby posted a decent 4.23 ERA with a 4.31 FIP and much more promising 3.44 SIERA in his final 38 1/3 innings that season. He fanned 26.1% of his opponents, issued walks at a 9.1% clip and kept the ball on the ground at a 57.4% rate in ’22 following the extension.

Shoulder troubles popped up in 2023, however, eventually requiring arthroscopic surgery. Ashby wound up pitching just seven innings all season — all of which came in the minors. He returned this season but was rocked for 11 runs (nine earned) on 14 hits and five walks with seven punchouts in just 8 1/3 spring innings. His regular season began with a the left-hander yielding eight runs (four earned) on six hits and a pair of walks in 3 2/3 innings. Ashby averaged 96.5 mph on his sinker in 2021 and 95.8 mph in 2022; he’s sitting at just 93.8 mph to begin the current season.

The Brewers are surely still hopeful that Ashby can rebound to an extent. Whether he factors into the rotation or eventually settles in as a bullpen piece, the former fourth-round pick has shown clear ability to miss bats and generate grounders at a premium level. Command has long been an issue, and Ashby probably won’t ever excel in that regard, but he could still play a prominent role on the team if he can get back to the 27.1% strikeout rate, 12.6% swinging-strike rate and 34.1% opponents’ chase rate he displayed in 2021-22.

Under the terms of that previously mentioned contract extension, Ashby is being paid $1.25MM in 2024. He’s owed salaries of $3.25MM, $5.5MM and $7.5MM from 2025-27, and Milwaukee has club options on what would’ve been his first two free agent seasons: $9MM in 2028 (with a $1MM buyout) and $13MM in 2029.

Devin Williams To Miss Roughly Three Months With Back Fractures

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Brewers star closer Devin Williams has been diagnosed with two stress fractures in his back, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (X link). He’ll be shut down entirely for six weeks and is expected to be out of MLB action for around three months.

It’s a massive hit to the Milwaukee bullpen two weeks before Opening Day. Williams made two appearances this spring before pausing his work as he battled back soreness. He visited a spine specialist this afternoon. That examination revealed the fractures. Fortunately, Passan indicates that Williams is expected to make a full recovery.

That the injury shouldn’t affect Williams throughout his career is a positive, but there’s no question it’s a significant loss for the first half of the upcoming season. The two-time All-Star is among the best relievers in baseball. He has turned in a sub-2.00 ERA in consecutive years, including a sparkling 1.53 mark over 58 2/3 frames last season. Williams shut down 36 games in 40 attempts in his first full campaign as a closer. He rode his patented wiffle ball changeup, the so-called Airbender, to a massive 37.7% strikeout percentage. Williams was named the National League’s Reliever of the Year for the second time in his career.

As is the case with virtually every Milwaukee player approaching free agency, Williams found himself in trade rumors during the offseason. That speculation returned after they dealt Corbin Burnes to the Orioles, but Milwaukee didn’t find a deal to their liking. They elected to keep him at the back of the bullpen instead. Williams should eventually return to the ninth inning, but he’ll now begin the season on the 60-day injured list and will be out of action at least into the middle of June.

It’s unclear if Milwaukee skipper Pat Murphy will go with a committee approach to the ninth inning or pick a defined closer while Williams is on the shelf. If they go the latter route, any of Joel Payamps, Abner Uribe or Trevor Megill could be candidates. Payamps was somewhat quietly one of the more productive relievers in the NL last season. The secondary piece acquired in the William Contreras/Sean Murphy three-team trade, Payamps turned in a 2.55 ERA with plus strikeout, walk and ground-ball numbers across 70 1/3 innings.

Uribe has more traditional closing stuff. One of the hardest throwers in the sport, he averaged a blistering 99.4 MPH on his sinker as a rookie. Uribe turned in a 1.76 ERA behind a 53% grounder percentage and a 30.7% strikeout rate over his first 30 2/3 MLB innings. It’s eye-popping stuff, but his command could keep him out of the ninth inning. Uribe walked more than 15% of opponents last season.

Megill, acquired in a minor trade with the Twins last April, struck out nearly 36% of batters faced as a Brewer. He worked to a 3.31 ERA through 32 2/3 frames. Megill averaged 99.1 MPH on his heater, which he paired with a wipeout curveball in the mid-80s. Having that trio of power arms means Murphy should still have a good relief group with which to work, yet there’s no one who can be expected to replicate the production that Williams posts on an annual basis.

Milwaukee controls Williams via arbitration through the 2025 season. He’s making $7MM this season. Milwaukee has a $10MM option for next year but could retain him in arbitration even if they opt for a $250K buyout instead of the option value. If Williams progresses as expected, he should be back on the mound before the deadline. There’s a chance he’d be a midseason trade candidate if the Brewers unexpectedly fall out of contention in the NL Central, but the offers they receive could be complicated by other teams’ trepidation about the injury.

Brewers Notes: Williams, Frelick, Sanchez

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Brewers closer Devin Williams has pitched just 1 1/3 frames across two appearances this spring thanks to a sore back, which manager Pat Murphy indicated to reporters (including Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel) has been bothering him throughout most of the spring. After previously getting an MRI to determine the source of the issue, Murphy added that Williams is set to meet with a spine specialist in California on Wednesday to receive a second opinion and make sure that he hasn’t suffered a more serious injury. Barring a second opinion changing the club’s course, Murphy indicated that the plan for Williams is to “give him some time off” in hopes that will treat the ailment.

Williams, 29, has established himself among the game’s most elite closers in recent years. Though the right-hander made his debut late in the 2019 season, he retained rookie eligibility into the 2020 season, which saw him dominant to an superlative 0.33 ERA with a 0.86 FIP in 27 innings of work, a strong enough performance to earn him the NL Rookie of the Year award during the shortened season. Since then, he’s settled in as one of the most reliably dominant relief arms in the game, having compiled a microscopic 1.75 ERA and 2.26 FIP in 200 1/3 innings over the past four years while striking out a whopping 40.5% of batters faced.

He enjoyed a characteristically excellent season in 2023, posting a 1.53 ERA in 61 appearances while collecting a career-best 36 saves and striking out opponents at a 37.7% clip. That dominance led to some trade speculation this winter as the club parted ways with both manager Craig Counsell and ace right-hander Corbin Burnes, though no deal ever came together regarding Williams and it’s unclear if the Brewers even shopped their relief ace. The right-hander remains under team control in Milwaukee through the end of the 2025 season, so it’s possible the club could look to part ways with Williams at some point in the future, but for the time being the right-hander appears poised to return to his role as Brewers closer come Opening Day if he’s healthy enough to take the field.

More from Brewers camp…

  • Murphy also spoke to reporters, including Hogg, about the prospect of young outfielder Sal Frelick moving to the infield this season. The manager indicated that he feels that Frelick’s work at third base hasn’t been “emphasized” enough and that he could be “one of the best stories in baseball.” Frelick’s potential move to the infield had been reported last month, when The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal indicated that Frelick had begun work at both second and third base. Frelick has since appeared in five games at the hot corner this spring, the same number as he’s appeared in his native right field. Should Frelick’s experiment at third base carry into the regular season on even a part-time basis, it would go a long way to sorting out at-bats in the club’s crowded outfield mix, which includes the likes of Christian Yelich, Jackson Chourio, Garrett Mitchell and Joey Wiemer in addition to Frelick.
  • Catcher Gary Sanchez has been slowed this spring by a right hand issue ever since signing with the Brewers on a big league deal last month, though as noted by MLB.com the 31-year-old backstop made it into game action ahead of schedule by appearing as the club’s DH in yesterday’s game. Sanchez was previously expected to start getting into game action on March 14, putting nearly a week ahead of schedule. That’s a good sign for Sanchez’s ability to get up to speed in time to avoid a stint on the injured list to open the season, though the club has Eric Haase also in camp and on the 40-man roster as a potential alternative backup to primary catcher William Contreras should Sanchez require more time to prepare for the coming campaign. Sanchez lingered on the free agent market through the early months of the 2023 campaign but performed well upon joining the Padres in late May, slashing .218/.292/.500 with 19 home runs in just 260 trips to the plate across his 72 games with the club.

Arnold: Brewers “Open To More Conversations” Following Burnes Trade

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Last night’s trade of Corbin Burnes took baseball by surprise. With spring training less than two weeks away and the Brewers having just spent $34MM to sign Rhys Hoskins for the next two seasons, the general expectation had been that the team planned to hold onto top stars like Burnes, Willy Adames and Devin Williams, despite the trio inching closer to free agency. (Burnes and Adames are free agents next winter, Williams after the 2025 season.) The Orioles, however, clearly came through with an offer that Milwaukee general manager felt he couldn’t turn down, and in the wake of the trade Arnold acknowledged that he’s “certainly open to more conversations” and “wouldn’t shut any conversations down at this point in the offseason” (link via Adam McCalvy of MLB.com).

That’s a far cry from a declaration that the Brewers are open for business, but both Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic and Mark Feinsand of MLB.com report that Williams, in particular, is also a possibility to move. Rosenthal writes that the Brewers have already “entertained” the possibility of moving the star righty.

Williams, 29, is among the game’s most dominant relievers. Over the past four seasons, he’s logged a 1.75 ERA while striking out a staggering 40.5% of his opponents. Williams’ 11.9% walk rate is well above the league average, but his prodigious strikeout ability, strong 49.5% ground-ball rate and knack for inducing weak contact (85.1 mph average exit velocity, 28.2% hard-hit rate) have all combined to help him mitigate that shaky command.

Excellent as he’s been, Williams isn’t the prototypical power-armed closer we see so often in today’s game. That’s not to suggest he’s a soft-tosser, but he doesn’t brandish the triple-digit heater that’s become increasingly common in modern baseball. Williams averaged 94.2 mph on his fastball in 2023 — an exact match with the league average for relievers — and sits at 94.8 mph dating back to 2020. However, Williams has one of the game’s best pitches, an 80-grade changeup nicknamed the “airbender.” Nearly a quarter of the changeups Williams has thrown in his career (23.1%) have generated a swinging strike. Opponents have batted just .137 and slugged only .199 against the pitch in his career.

Beyond his sheer dominance, Williams is eminently affordable. He agreed to a one-year, $7.25MM deal last month and tacked on a $10.5MM club option for the 2025 campaign, thus avoiding the need for an arbitration hearing this year or next. The value of that club option will likely increase based on some escalators that are baked into the contract. Pitching in 52 games would bump the option value by $200K, while reaching 57 and 62 appearances would add $250K each, plus another $300K for 66 games (which would establish a new career-high, topping 2022’s 65 games). Even if Williams unlocks that full $1MM worth of escalators, an $11.5MM option on a reliever of this caliber would still be a clear bargain.

It should be noted and emphasized that there’s no indication Milwaukee is aggressively shopping Williams or anyone else on the roster. This, however, is the manner in which the Brewers (and Arnold’s former organization, the Rays) have continually operated: maintain an openness on star players as their club control dwindles — particularly those who are likely beyond the organization’s comfort level in terms of asking price on an extension.

Flexibility when it comes to moving short-term players with one to two years of club control is a driving factor in how the Brewers have remained competitive regularly despite perennially ranking in the bottom half of the league in terms of payroll. The trade of Josh Hader at the 2022 deadline netted the Brewers left-hander Robert Gasser (one of their current top pitching prospects) and outfielder Esteury Ruiz, who was subsequently flipped for William Contreras, who won a Silver Slugger as Milwaukee’s starting catcher last season. Hader himself came to Milwaukee alongside Adrian Houser in a trade sending Carlos Gomez to Houston. Right-hander Freddy Peralta, now the Brewers’ top starter, was acquired as a 19-year-old in a trade sending first baseman Adam Lind to Seattle. The list goes on.

Any trade involving Williams will surely require a steep asking price — arguably a comparable or even greater return than Burnes commanded, given his extra year of club control and more affordable contract status. And Williams, like Burnes, figures to be a qualifying offer candidate once he’s able to reach free agency, meaning a new team would know that so long as he remains healthy, there’ll be some draft pick compensation to help recoup the value surrendered in order to acquire him in the first place.

It stands to reason that with Burnes out the door and at least a willingness to listen on Williams, the Brewers have similar thoughts on Adames. The 28-year-old broke out almost immediately after being traded from Tampa Bay to Milwaukee in 2021, when the Brewers sent righties Drew Rasmussen and J.P. Feyereisen to the Rays in exchange for Adames and righty Trevor Richards.

In two and a half seasons as a Brewer, Adames has slashed .242/.319/.454 with 75 homers, 86 doubles and a pair of triples in 1668 plate appearances — all while playing strong defense at a premium position. He’s walked at a 10% clip against a 26% strikeout rate and established himself as a power threat who can hit anywhere in the order, evidenced by 2022’s 31-homer showing. Adames has turned in 17 Defensive Runs Saved and 26 Outs Above Average in the past two seasons alone. He’ll earn a reasonable $12.25MM in 2024 before becoming a free agent ahead of his age-29 season.

As with Burnes, Adames will be a slam-dunk qualifying offer candidate next season. He’s extremely likely to receive and reject a QO, and he’d surely sign a contract worth more than $50MM in total with his next team. That’d give Milwaukee a compensatory pick at the end of the first round of the 2025 draft. Any trade offers would need to eclipse that value — and likely by a strong margin.

That said, the acquisition of Joey Ortiz in the Burnes trade makes it easier for the Brewers to listen to offers. Ortiz himself is a shortstop — and an MLB-ready one at that. He struggled in a tiny sample during last year’s MLB debut (34 plate appearances, .212/.206/.242) but is an accomplished upper-minors hitter who’s considered a good defender at shortstop. The 25-year-old Ortiz spent the bulk of the 2023 season in Triple-A Norfolk, where he slashed .321/.378/.507. That marked his second stint in Norfolk, as he also finished out the 2022 season there and hit well in a sample of 115 plate appearances. Overall, in 504 trips to the plate at Triple-A, Ortiz is a .327/.383/.521 hitter with 13 homers, 37 doubles, six triples and 17 steals.

Of course, as a plus defender at shortstop, Ortiz is more than capable of breaking into the big leagues as an everyday second baseman or third baseman. He and Adames can absolutely coexist on Milwaukee’s roster, and Ortiz could easily slide over to shortstop in 2025 if the team hangs onto Adames for the upcoming season. The Brewers surely don’t feel they need to trade Adames, but as Arnold strongly implied, he also won’t be turning anyone away on principle, either.

That willingness to listen could set the stage for another splashy trade or even two between now and Opening Day, but this isn’t an A’s-esque situation where the Brewers will be selling everything that’s not nailed down. Burnes commanded a pair of immediate big leaguers who both have six years of club control remaining. Any trades of Williams, Adames and/or anyone else on the roster would presumably need to afford similar near-term help.

The Brewers’ recent signing of Hoskins and focus on MLB-ready talent even in trading away their ace highlights the fact that this isn’t a team punting on 2024. Rather, they’re trying to thread the needle of remaining competitive on an annual basis without needing to undergo the exact type of teardown that Burnes’ new team underwent for a half decade prior to emerging as a powerhouse in the AL East. Teams will undoubtedly check back in on Williams, Adames and others in the wake of the Burnes blockbuster, but further trades aren’t necessarily a given.

Latest On Brewers’ Offseason Approach

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The Brewers are open to trade offers on the majority of their roster, writes Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. While that’s standard procedure for most teams — especially smaller-market franchises — Rosenthal suggests that Milwaukee could be more amenable than they had been in previous offseasons to moving notable players.

Around this time last offseason, Milwaukee was reportedly telling teams they weren’t interested in dealing Brandon Woodruff, Corbin Burnes or Willy Adames. It doesn’t seem they’re being quite so definitive this time around. At the same time, that doesn’t guarantee any of those players will be on the move.

Woodruff doesn’t hold much trade value at this point anyhow. The All-Star righty underwent shoulder surgery and will miss the bulk of next season. He’s on track to hit free agency after that year. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for an $11.6MM salary if tendered an arbitration contract. There’s a chance Milwaukee cuts him loose for nothing before next Friday’s non-tender deadline.

Burnes would have immense trade appeal, while Adames would be a valuable asset in his own right. The former is one of the sport’s best pitchers and would likely be the best starter available if the Brewers seriously considered dealing him. The 2021 Cy Young winner worked to a 3.39 ERA over 193 2/3 innings this year. He reached the 200 strikeout mark for a third straight season, fanning 25.5% of opponents. While a less impressive showing than Burnes’ three consecutive sub-3.00 ERA years between 2020-22, that’s still very strong production.

Swartz projects him for a salary just above $15MM in his final season of team control. The projected outlay on Adames checks in at $12.4MM. The 28-year-old shortstop is coming off a relative down season. He hit .217/.310/.411 across 638 trips to the plate. That’s well below the .256/.325/.483 line he’d posted between his acquisition from the Rays in May 2021 and the end of the ’22 season.

Despite the dip in offense, Adames would have strong trade appeal. He’s an excellent defender at the infield’s most demanding position. He still connected on 24 home runs and has topped 20 longballs in each of the last four full seasons. A dismal free agent shortstop class leaves other teams without many alternatives.

It is generally expected that Burnes and Adames will price themselves out of Milwaukee when they reach free agency. The Brewers could expect a stronger trade return this offseason than they would if they shopped either player at the deadline — an acquiring team would not only get a full year of their services, they’d be able to make them a qualifying offer next winter.

Moving either player would deal a notable blow to Milwaukee’s hopes of repeating as NL Central champions, though. Between Woodruff’s injury and Wade Miley hitting free agency, the Brew Crew are already thin on the rotation front. The aforementioned middle infield shortage would make it difficult to effectively replace Adames on a low-cost free agent pickup.

The Brewers have made one trade this offseason, sending Mark Canha to the Tigers in lieu of an $11.5MM club option. Moving either Burnes or Adames would be a much tougher decision. Milwaukee has around $36MM in guaranteed contracts for next season. The arbitration class is projected for nearly $65MM, although non-tenders of Woodruff and Rowdy Tellez would trim almost $18MM from that estimate. The Brewers opened the 2023 season with a player payroll in the $119MM range, so retaining Burnes and Adames should be financially viable.

Various others on the Milwaukee roster are sure to be the subject of interest from rival teams. Devin Williams would be one of the most in-demand relievers, while Adrian Houser could hold appeal to clubs looking for starting pitching. It’s hard to envision the Brewers orchestrating a full teardown — the organization has instead sought perpetual contention by moving select players as they get closer to free agency — but there are various options on the table for GM Matt Arnold over the coming months.

MLB Announces 2023 All-Star Rosters

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The starters for the 2023 All-Star Game were already announced earlier this week, and today the league revealed the reserve selections and the pitching staffs for the National League and American League teams.  Fan balloting determined the game’s starters, while the reserves and pitchers were picked by a combination of the player ballot and selections from the league office.

This won’t be the final list of players involved, as some more substitutions will be announced later for players who are injured or who have opted not to participate.  Every team must have at least one player represented at the Midsummer Classic, and the starting pitchers for the game will be announced on July 10.

Of note, Shohei Ohtani will be in the game as both a DH and as a pitcher for the third consecutive season.  The Braves led all teams with eight All-Stars, while the Rangers weren’t far behind with six players chosen.  This year’s All-Star Game takes place in Seattle on July 11.

National League

American League

NL Central Notes: Reynolds, Williams, Senzel, Santillan

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Even with three games already in the books on the Pirates’ 2023 season, Bryan Reynolds’ contract status is still the biggest story in Pittsburgh baseball, given the reports from earlier this week suggesting the two sides had made a lot of progress towards an extension.  The deal in question appears to be an eight-year, $106MM pact, yet the sticking point appears to be the Pirates’ reluctance to include an opt-out clause for Reynolds following the 2026 season.

It isn’t clear if anything has changed in talks, as Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (Twitter links) hears from both sides that, essentially, they “haven’t heard anything” about any further progress.  Mackey notes that GM Ben Cherington didn’t mention anything about Reynolds or the contract talks during his weekly radio show today, though naturally it would’ve been a little surprising to hear an executive make any significant public comment on contract negotiations that (apparently) are still ongoing.  Opening Day was reportedly viewed as a deadline to get an extension finalized, and while that deadline was completely unofficial, it begs the question or whether or not Reynolds and the Bucs can solve the impasse soon or if the matter might be tabled until the offseason…..or, if Reynolds might be traded elsewhere before the deadline.

More NL Central items….

  • Devin Williams was hit in the arm by a Dansby Swanson line drive during the ninth inning of yesterday’s game, though Williams remained on the mound to close out the Brewers’ 3-1 win over the Cubs.  Williams told MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy and other reporters that the liner “glanced off” his right elbow and “it didn’t feel too good,” leading to a bit of lingering soreness today.  While the injury doesn’t appear to be serious, Williams and manager Craig Counsell said that the reliever’s availability for today’s game wouldn’t be known until Williams did some pregame warmups. [UPDATE: Williams didn’t pitch in Milwaukee’s 9-5 win over Chicago, but Counsell said the reliever was available if called upon.]
  • Nick Senzel and Tony Santillan are slated to begin rehab assignments at Triple-A Louisville on Tuesday, Reds manager David Bell told reporters (including Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer).  Both were hampered by injuries that pushed back their Spring Training work, as Senzel underwent toe surgery during the offseason and Santillan was still recovering from a lower back issue that plagued him during the 2022 campaign.  Barring any setbacks, however, Senzel and Santillan appear to be on pace to join the Reds by around the middle of April, with Senzel perhaps moving into a utility role and Santillan stepping back into Cincinnati’s bullpen.
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