Jack Flaherty

Mozeliak Discusses Cardinals’ Deadline, Rotation, Outfield

By Anthony Franco | July 17, 2023 at 11:59pm CDT

The Cardinals approach the trade deadline in an unfamiliar position as sellers. Sitting 12 games under .500 and in last place in the NL Central, St. Louis joins the Rockies, Nationals and Pirates as the only National League clubs at least 10 games out of a playoff spot.

President of baseball operations John Mozeliak admitted last week the Cards were turning their attention towards 2024. He expanded upon that in a wide-ranging conversation with the St. Louis beat this afternoon (YouTube link via Charlie Marlow of 590 The Fan). Cards’ fans will want to check out the complete media session.

Mozeliak conceded there wasn’t much hope of avoiding a sell-off of short-term pieces at this stage of the season. “Does performance (over the next two weeks) change our direction? Probably not at this point. Where we are in the standings, it’s going to make it very difficult to change that.” He left open the possibility of something like an eight-game win streak altering the equation but it’s clear the front office anticipates parting with a number of veteran players over the next couple weeks.

The front office leader restated they’re prioritizing trade targets who could help the big league team in the near future. Mozeliak indicated they’d look for players who’d be MLB factors by 2024-25 and was rather blunt about their positional desires.

“We’re going to treat the trading deadline as ’pitching, pitching, pitching,'” he said. “That’s not to say we’re going to ignore a position player that may be uber-great … but the goal would be to address as much pitching as possible.”

It isn’t hard to understand why. The rotation has been St. Louis’ biggest problem area. Cardinals’ starters entered play Monday ranked 25th in MLB with a 4.64 ERA. That’s obviously insufficient to begin with and it’s only likely to thin out over the next few weeks. Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty are impending free agents who both seem likely to change uniforms by August 1. Adam Wainwright isn’t a trade candidate but he’s retiring at season’s end.

That’s three vacancies arising before 2024. Only Miles Mikolas seems a lock for next year’s season-opening rotation. Steven Matz is under contract for two more seasons but has bounced between the starting staff and the bullpen this year. Matthew Liberatore has been tagged for a 6.39 ERA over eight MLB starts. Righty Jake Woodford wasn’t much more effective in an early-season rotation look. Former first round draftee Zack Thompson could compete for a ’24 rotation spot but has one MLB start to his name.

While St. Louis will scour the trade market for upper level starting pitching, they’ll also have to dip into free agency next winter. Mozeliak conceded it’d be nearly impossible to envision the Cards not adding a free agent starter and indicated the organization should have enough financial flexibility to attack the open market.

Interestingly, he indicated the organization’s approach to pitching acquisition could be a little different moving forward. St. Louis has prioritized ground-ball pitchers in recent seasons, relying on an excellent infield defense to support a pitch-to-contact staff. That hasn’t worked this year. St. Louis has allowed an MLB-worst .324 batting average on grounders. That’s a huge change from seasons past, one Mozeliak admitted could impact the way the front office approaches things.

The team is likely to prioritize “more swing-and-miss versus ground-ball types,” he said. Only the Rockies and Royals have gotten a lower strikeout rate out of their rotation than St. Louis’ 18.4% clip. The bullpen has been more effective, ranking 12th with a 24.5% strikeout percentage.

A few members of the relief corps are also likely to be on the way out. The Cards already designated lefty Génesis Cabrera for assignment this morning. Mozeliak called that a “change of scenery” decision, noting that Cabrera is hopeful of landing a higher-leverage role than the one he’d received in St. Louis. Jordan Hicks and Chris Stratton seem likely to be dealt strictly because of their contractual situations. Both are impending free agents and having quality seasons, with the flamethrowing Hicks standing out as a particularly desirable rental trade chip.

There aren’t any true rentals on the position player side, although the Cards seem likely to opt for a $1MM buyout over a $12.5MM club option on shortstop Paul DeJong. A middle infield logjam also comprising Tommy Edman, Brendan Donovan, Nolan Gorman and eventually top prospect Masyn Winn makes a DeJong trade seem likely.

Left fielder Tyler O’Neill has seemed a potential trade candidate amidst a season decimated by back issues. Mozeliak didn’t expressly rule that out but seemed to cast some doubt on that possibility today, saying the Cardinals anticipated playing O’Neill as their everyday left fielder. He has been on the injured list since May 4 but could be reinstated before tomorrow’s game against Miami.

O’Neill is playing this season on a $4.95MM salary. The club can retain him for one more season via arbitration. St. Louis has enough outfield depth that O’Neill could be a non-tender candidate next winter, though it’s also possible they deal another outfielder to clear space. Star rookie Jordan Walker isn’t going anywhere, and Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch wrote last week the Cards were telling other clubs they had no intention of moving Lars Nootbaar.

That arguably leaves Dylan Carlson as an odd man out. The former top prospect is hitting .243/.350/.376 over 203 trips to the plate. He reaches arbitration for the first time next winter and isn’t eligible for free agency until after the 2026 campaign. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com indicated this evening (on Twitter) the Yankees could have some interest in Carlson as they search for outfield help.

Of course, there are no bigger names the Cardinals could put on the trade market than their star corner infield tandem of Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado. Mozeliak declined to declare either player categorically untouchable but strongly downplayed the possibility of moving either. “I don’t have any intentions of trading anybody like them,” he said. “If you’re willing to listen on anything, you have to understand (anything’s possible), but I doubt that would happen.” As he subsequently noted, both players have full no-trade rights, and it seems very unlikely a St. Louis team gearing back up for 2024 would want to part with either of its top two position players regardless.

Rays Showing Interest In Several Veteran Starters

By Steve Adams | July 17, 2023 at 11:27am CDT

The Rays’ rotation has been ravaged by injury in 2023, with starters Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs both going down for the season already. Shane Baz underwent Tommy John surgery last September, and Shane McClanahan has been out since June 30 with a back injury (though he’s expected back tonight). Tyler Glasnow is healthy at the moment but has been limited to just nine starts this season. Southpaw Josh Fleming hit the injured list on June 3 and has since been moved to the 60-day IL.

Tampa Bay remains in first place despite that slate of health woes, but the rotation currently consists of McClanahan, Glasnow, Zach Eflin and top prospect Taj Bradley. The Rays have had their share of bullpen games this season already, and with so many of their arms done for the year, they’re in the market for veteran rotation help. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that they’ve already spoken to the White Sox about a potential deal for Lance Lynn, and they’ve also “extensively” scouted Cardinals rental arms Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty.

Lynn, 36, is in the second season of a two-year, $38MM contract that contains a $18MM club option (or $1MM buyout) for the 2024 season. The 2021 All-Star finished in the top six of American League Cy Young voting each season from 2019-21 but is currently in the midst of one of the toughest seasons of his career. Through 108 1/3 frames, Lynn owns a 6.06 ERA, due largely to an MLB-high 24 home runs allowed.

While the long ball has plagued Lynn at career-worst levels in 2023, he’s still missing bats at a high level and limiting walks at a passable rate. Lynn’s 27.7% strikeout rate ranks tenth in the Majors among qualified starters, and his 14% swinging-strike rate ranks eighth. His 8.3% walk rate is just narrowly higher than the 7.9% average among big league starters. Metrics like xFIP (3.82) and SIERA (3.79) feel he’s outperformed his baseline ERA.

Lynn is being paid $18.5MM this season and, as of this writing, has about $7.6MM remaining on the deal — plus the $1MM buyout on next year’s option. Despite the poor results, Nightengale notes that the asking price on the righty remains high — likely reflective of both the limited number of starters available and the broad number of teams who believe Lynn’s strong K-BB profile makes him an appealing rebound candidate.

As for the Cardinals’ starters, both are rather straightforward trade candidates. The Cards sit in last place in the National League Central and are 11.5 games back not only in the division but also in the National League Wild Card chase. President of baseball ops John Mozeliak is already turning his focus to the 2024 season, and the Cardinals already look to be making some changes on the roster, as they’re reportedly set to designate lefty reliever Genesis Cabrera for assignment today.

Both Montgomery and Flaherty, meanwhile, are set to be free agents following the season. The 30-year-old Montgomery would be a natural candidate to receive and reject a qualifying offer at season’s end, but the demand for rotation help should create a trade return that outpaces that value. In 18 starts and 103 innings this year, Montgomery boasts a 3.23 ERA with a 22.3% strikeout rate (roughly average for a starting pitcher), a strong 6.6% walk rate and an above-average 45.9% ground-ball rate. He’s earning $10MM on the season — about $4.1MM of which is yet to be paid out.

Flaherty, 27, was one of the NL’s best young starters in 2018-19 but has been plagued by injuries for much of the past few seasons. He’s been healthy in 2023, making 18 starts and tallying 98 2/3 innings, but this year’s 11.8% walk rate is an alarming mark that represents a continuation of last year’s career-worst levels (13.2%). Despite that high level, he has a 4.29 ERA with strikeout and ground-ball rates nearly identical to those of Montgomery. At $5.4MM, he’s earning roughly half the salary of Montgomery and has about $2.2MM still owed to him.

There’s no indication yet that the Rays have had any sort of advanced talks on any of the three, and this trio surely represents just a handful of a larger number of arms Tampa Bay is considering. It stands to reason that they’ll check in on the majority of arms available, particularly those currently playing for concrete sellers like the White Sox and Cardinals. Each of Lynn, Montgomery and Flaherty has a good chance to be moved in the next few weeks, and each will draw interest from a broad range of suitors. The Rays, with a deep farm system and clear postseason ambitions, have the ability and motivation to land just about any starting pitcher they covet; time will tell which direction they go as they continue to survey the market between now and the Aug. 1 deadline.

Cardinals Interested In Logan Gilbert

By Darragh McDonald | July 14, 2023 at 1:44pm CDT

The Cardinals are coming out of the All-Star break with a 38-52 record, placing them in last place in the National League Central and 11 games back in the Wild Card race. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak recently admitted that the club will have to approach the deadline as sellers, focusing on making moves that benefit the 2024 club.

The club has just over two weeks until the August 1 deadline, giving them some time to figure out their plans, but Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch has a report with some specifics that shine a light on their current plans. Notably, the Cards are uninterested in trading core players like Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt, Lars Nootbaar and Jordan Walker. They are open, however, to trading pitchers like Jordan Montgomery, Jordan Hicks, Ryan Helsley and Génesis Cabrera, while Jack Flaherty is already generating interest from other clubs. As for what kind of player they are looking to bring in, Goold lists Logan Gilbert of the Mariners as someone they are interested in.

To be clear, there’s no indication that the Mariners have any inclination towards trading Gilbert, but it’s entirely understandable why the Cards would be interested. The 26-year-old Gilbert has made 74 starts to this point in his career, posting a 3.75 ERA with a 24% strikeout rate, 5.7% walk rate and 36.9% ground ball rate. He’s right in line with those figures this year, having a 3.66 ERA with similar peripherals in 18 starts.

More importantly for the Cardinals, Gilbert can be immediately plugged into their rotation and has plenty of club control remaining. He came into this season with one year and 144 days of service time and will finish this season at 2.144. That makes him a virtual lock to qualify for arbitration as a Super Two player this winter, but he will still have four years of club control left, meaning he isn’t slated to become a free agent until after the 2027 season.

The Cards are not planning a deep rebuild but are instead focused on next year’s club, when they have plenty of rotation uncertainty. Adam Wainwright is planning to retire after this year, while both Flaherty and Montgomery are impending free agents. They have also seen some internal options struggle this year. Steven Matz had an ERA of 5.72 through 10 starts before getting bumped to the bullpen, though he recently retook a rotation job after some solid relief work. Matthew Liberatore has decent numbers in Triple-A but a 6.75 ERA in the majors this year. Dakota Hudson has spent most of the year in Triple-A, posting an ERA of 6.00 at that level. All of that leaves Miles Mikolas as the only sure thing for next year’s rotation.

But Seattle wouldn’t give up Gilbert easily. The club is 45-44 right now and just four games out in the American League Wild Card race. Gilbert is a key part of their rotation right now and for future seasons, given his aforementioned years of control. If they were to give any thought to moving him, they would likely have to get back something that helps some other part of their roster in the here and now. They also have Luis Castillo, George Kirby and Bryan Woo in their rotation alongside Gilbert, but Robbie Ray is out of the season while Bryce Miller and Marco Gonzales are currently on the injured list. Subtracting Gilbert from that mix would to be weighed against the benefits of an upgrade elsewhere.

The Mariners have tried to do a buy-sell hybrid before, which was in 2021. They flipped relievers Kendall Graveman and Rafael Montero to the Astros in exchange for Joe Smith and Abraham Toro, while picking up Diego Castillo and Tyler Anderson in separate deals. The move didn’t work out, with the clubhouse apparently not thrilled by the closer suddenly pitching for a divisional rival and the M’s ultimately missing the playoffs.

This year’s trade deadline is generally considered to have a lack of sellers that may force clubs to consider trades between contenders, with each club giving up current major league talent, such as last year’s deal where the Cards got Montgomery from the Yankees for Harrison Bader. A Gilbert trade would be a significantly different beast though, since Montgomery and Bader each had just a season and a half of club control remaining at the time. When factoring in Gilbert’s extra control and the fact that the M’s just got burned on the hybrid deadline strategy not too long ago, it’s hard to view a trade coming together as a likely scenario.

Nonetheless, the interest from the Cardinals is instructive as to what their targets might be. They have a crowded position player mix and may perhaps look to swap someone from that group for some controllable pitching, even if it’s not Gilbert. It remains to be seen which players they are willing to put on the table in such a pursuit, but it seems they’ll hang onto Arenado, Goldschmidt, Nootbaar and Walker.

It’s not a terrible shock to see those names listed as off-limits. Goldschmidt and Arenado are the two most important players on the club, finishing first and third respectively in National League MVP voting last year. Both players also have full no-trade clauses, which would make a deal complicated even if the Cardinals wanted to consider it. The players could always waive their clauses but Goold reports that Arenado has not been approached about doing so and would prefer to stay anyway. There’s been no reporting to suggest that anything is different with Goldschmidt.

Walker was one of the top prospects in the league coming into this year and is faring well in his first season, hitting .283/.347/.457 for a 123 wRC+ thus far. He made the club’s Opening Day roster but was optioned for over a month at one point, meaning he’ll come up shy of one year of major league service here in 2023 and leave the Cards with six further seasons of control. As a consensus top prospect, he could earn that full year by finishing in the top two of Rookie of the Year voting, but he would still be a key part of the club’s future even in that scenario.

Nootbaar, meanwhile, has hit .241/.343/.420 in 226 career games while providing above-average outfield defense. He will still have four years of control remaining after this one and isn’t slated to qualify for arbitration until after 2024.

Just because those names are listed as unavailable, it doesn’t necessarily mean that anyone not named is therefore available, but the club will likely have to move someone. Tyler O’Neill has often been speculated as a candidate since the club has Nootbaar, Walker, Dylan Carlson and others in the outfield mix. On the infield, meanwhile, Tommy Edman and Brendan Donovan have somewhat similar multi-positional profiles and have been pushed to the grass with Paul DeJong and Nolan Gorman often in the middle infield. If the Cards have their sights set on an impact rotation addition like Gilbert or someone similar, they might have to make the difficult decision of parting with someone in that group.

Though that situation seems fluid and has many factors, the rental pitching seems much more straightforward. Each of Montgomery, Flaherty and Hicks are impending free agents and seem virtual locks to be moved at this point. Montgomery is a consistent mid-rotation guy, with a 3.75 career ERA and a 3.23 mark here in 2023. He’s making $10MM this year, which will leave about $3.22MM left to be paid out at the deadline.

Flaherty has shown ace upside in the past but was held back by injuries in recent years. He’s not back to those ace levels this year, currently sporting a 4.27 ERA, but he’s at least healthy and effective enough for a rotation job. Hicks, meanwhile, has triple-digit velocity and seems to be finally figuring out how to weaponize it properly.

Helsley and Cabrera aren’t strict rentals and don’t need to be moved at this deadline, necessarily. But given the volatility of relief performance, it’s logical for the Cardinals to consider what kind of return they can get right now. Helsley seemed to take over the closer’s role last year, posting a 1.25 ERA and racking up 19 saves in the process. He has a 3.24 ERA this year but has been on the injured list for the past month due to a strained right forearm. Players on the IL can be traded but his health status might cast a shadow over trade talks. He can be controlled for two more seasons after this one via arbitration. He’s making $2.15MM and will have about $700K left to be paid out when the deadline rolls around.

Cabrera, 26, has been inconsistent in terms of his strikeouts but has always had subpar control. Regardless, left-handed relief tends to always be in demand to some degree. He has a 4.07 ERA in his career but a 4.70 mark this year. He’s struck out 25.7% of opponents this season but walked 13.2%. Like Helsley, he can be retained via arbitration for two more campaigns after this one. He’s making $950K this year, which will leave just over $300K at deadline time.

All in all, there are many moving parts for the Cardinals to consider, making them one of the most interesting clubs to watch in the coming weeks. They haven’t been in the clear seller position in a while, but they seem well-positioned to take advantage of it. Few clubs are in the same category and many of the other clear sellers have far less to offer in terms of players that would be of interest for contending clubs.

Cardinals Notes: Walker, Flaherty, Wainwright

By Mark Polishuk | March 5, 2023 at 8:28am CDT

Jordan Walker leads all hitters in baseball with a 1.667 OPS in Spring Training, as the young slugger continues to turn heads. While Walker’s performance has come over only 18 plate appearances, his speed, power, and overall hitting prowess has created some buzz that he might break camp with the Cardinals, MLB.com’s John Denton writes. Manager Oli Marmol didn’t close the door on the possibility, saying “I don’t know what the tipping point is, but he’s continuing to show he’s capable. We went into this camp saying there is going to be real competition and that’s what he is making this — a real competition.”

As a consensus top-five prospect in baseball, Walker isn’t exactly coming out of nowhere, but the expectation was that he would begin the season in the minors since Walker has yet to play any Triple-A ball. Even if Walker’s bat might be ready for prime time, he only started playing in the outfield last season, as the Cards moved him off his original third base position since Nolan Arenado obviously has the hot corner spoken for at the MLB level. St. Louis also technically has a full outfield complement already, with Dylan Carlson, Tyler O’Neill, and Lars Nootbaar slated for starting duty, Alec Burleson and Juan Yepez in backup roles, and versatile infielders Tommy Edman and Brendan Donovan able to play on the grass when they aren’t elsewhere on the diamond. That said, the Cardinals have traditionally not been shy about promoting their top prospects, and the team’s decision-makers might face a real choice if Walker keeps crushing the ball.

Which Starters Should The Cardinals Extend?

By Nick Deeds | February 12, 2023 at 3:04pm CDT

The mass exodus facing the Cardinals rotation at the end of the 2023 season is well-documented at this point. Longtime rotation stalwart Adam Wainwright is set to follow in the footsteps of his longtime battery-mate Yadier Molina and retire following the end of the 2023 season, while each of Miles Mikolas, Jack Flaherty, and Jordan Montgomery are set to depart the club as free agents. If none of that group is extended, right-hander Dakota Hudson will be the only pitcher to make more than ten starts with the Cardinals in 2022 and remain with the club in 2024, though lefty Steven Matz is also under contract through the 2025 season and youngster Andre Pallante impressed in ten starts last season.

The 2023-2024 free agent class figures to be exceptional deep in quality rotation options, even for clubs who won’t be part of the Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes. Still, it seems reasonable to expect extensions, such as the one Yu Darvish signed with the Padres last week, to continue thinning the herd throughout Spring Training and into the regular season. For a Cardinals club that’s attempting to make the most of the remaining prime years for superstars Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt, going into the offseason with three or more slots in the rotation to fill would put an enormous amount of pressure on the front office. As such, it’s no wonder that the organization is reportedly planning to have extension conversations with at least two of their starting pitchers this spring.

The clearest choice for the Cardinals to pursue an extension with would be Mikolas, who reportedly is open to extending with the club this spring. Even entering his age-34 season, there’s every reason to expect Mikolas to be durable going forward; though he missed the entirety of the 2020 season and much of the 2021 season due to surgery, since joining the Cardinals ahead of the 2018 season he has pitched more than 180 innings in each of his three seasons unaffected by that surgery, including inning counts over 200 innings in 2018 and 2022. On top of that, Mikolas has proven to be an effective mid-rotation option whenever he is on the mound, with a 3.46 ERA (114 ERA+) and a 3.84 FIP in 631 2/3 innings as a member of the Cardinals.

Furthermore, despite his age and workhorse tendencies, the mileage on his arm is still fairly low: Mikolas has just 1,561 professional innings under his belt between the majors, minors, and his time overseas. That’s more than a thousand innings less than similarly aged hurlers such as Yu Darvish and Clayton Kershaw, and just a tad under the 1,746 1/3 professional innings Aaron Nola has under his belt headed into his age-30 season. Given Mikolas’s combination of effectiveness, durability, low mileage on his arm, and comfort with the club (he already extended with the team once, ahead of the 2019 season), it’s no wonder that Mikolas appears to be one of the starters the Cardinals are seeking to continue their partnership with.

What of the other options, though? Surely, if Wainwright changes his mind and decides to continue pitching in 2024, the lifelong Cardinal would be continuing his career in St. Louis. All signs point to him hanging them up this fall after the conclusion of his age-41 season, however, leaving two pending free agents in the Cardinals rotation for them to consider extending: Flaherty and Montgomery. Flaherty is the younger of the two, set to pitch in 2023 at age 27 while Montgomery celebrated his 30th birthday earlier this offseason. Both players have dealt with injury woes in their careers, though Flaherty’s are more recent, having spanned the 2020-2022 seasons. Montgomery’s struggles from 2018-2020, by contrast, have since been followed up by a pair of quality, healthy seasons.

Montgomery has also shown more consistency throughout his career; when healthy, he has reliably been good for around 150 innings of 10-15% better than league average baseball. Flaherty, on the other hand, has two exceptional seasons under his belt in 2018 and 2019 where he combined for a 3.01 ERA, 35% better than league average, while finishing top 5 in Rookie of the Year voting in 2018 and Cy Young award voting in 2019. Outside of those two seasons, however, he has just 176 career innings at the major league level under his belt, and the results of those innings leave much to be desired: a 4.19 ERA and more than a strikeout less per nine innings than his peak years.

One can rightfully argue that Flaherty, so long as he can get healthy, projects to be better than Montgomery going forward. Montgomery’s fastball velocity in 2022 clocked in just below that of Flaherty despite the fact that Montgomery was enjoying a career high while Flaherty’s velocity was at an all-time low. Flaherty’s camp will surely make that argument, and with such a considerable gap between Flaherty’s potential and his current results, it’s fair to wonder how feasible it is for the two sides to come together on an extension they both find mutually agreeable, particularly when a big season from Flaherty in 2023 could cement him among the top starters on next offseason’s free agent market. Flaherty seems, perhaps, particularly unlikely to take much of a discount given he forced St. Louis to renew his contract ahead of both the 2019 and 2020 seasons rather than agree to a pre-arbitration salary, calling it a matter of “principle.”

The Cardinals have no such contentious history of negotiations with Montgomery, whom they acquired at the trade deadline last season in a deal that sent center fielder Harrison Bader to the Yankees. Montgomery pitched extremely well down the stretch for St. Louis last season, racking up 63 2/3 innings that were good for a 3.11 ERA (123 ERA+) and a 3.08 FIP. While Montgomery’s potential is far from that of Flaherty, that dominant stretch to end the 2022 season could indicate that there is still upside yet to be tapped into for the left-hander. Furthermore, despite not being a member of the organization for very long, that hasn’t stopped this Cardinals front office in the past. After all, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak is the one who signed Goldschmidt to an extension prior to the 2019 season before the slugger had ever played a regular season game in a Cardinals uniform.

Financially speaking, the Cardinals have plenty of room to maneuver under the luxury tax going forward. The club’s estimated luxury tax payroll for 2024 according to Roster Resource is just over $106MM, down from $199MM in 2023. Granted, that 2024 figure does not include arbitration salaries for 2024. In 2023, arbitration salaries are adding $36.5MM to the luxury tax ledger in St. Louis- even if that figure repeats, the club would have nearly $60MM to play with before reaching their 2023 payroll level, and over $90MM before reaching the first luxury tax threshold. That should leave them Mozeliak’s front office plenty of room to add or extend starters ahead of the 2024 season.

For players between five and six years of service time, as Flaherty and Montgomery both are, three recent extensions have taken place: the seven-year, $131MM deal Jose Berrios signed with the Blue Jays last offseason, the five-year, $100MM deal Joe Musgrove signed with the Padres last summer, and the five-year, $85MM deal Lance McCullers Jr. signed with the Astros ahead of the 2021 season. Berrios stands as something of a clear outlier among the other two, while Joe Musgrove has been a more effective starter than Montgomery and a more consistent starter than Flaherty. As such, McCullers seems to be the most appropriate comp for our purposes.

McCullers and Montgomery both are solid mid-rotation starters when healthy, and though McCullers was just about to begin his age-27 season when he signed his extension, making him three years younger than Montgomery is now, he was coming off far more recent injury troubles than Montgomery was while having never pitched even 130 innings in a season of his career. The $85MM figure also compares reasonably to the mid-rotation market this past offseason, which each of Chris Bassitt, Jameson Taillon, and Taijuan Walker securing between $63MM and $72MM and Montgomery having an argument as a safer bet than any of them.

Flaherty, on the other hand, seems less likely to find that sort of deal appropriate. Following an offseason that saw the likes of Carlos Rodon and Jacob deGrom secure well over $100MM despite injury concerns, it’s reasonable to think that Flaherty could do the same with relative ease should he have a bounceback year in 2023, particularly given his youth. Additionally, the market was rather kind to even oft-injured bounceback types such as Andrew Heaney this offseason. Even if Flaherty struggles again in 2023, he could search for a two-year deal with an opt-out as Heaney did to rebuild his value and hit the market a second time before his age-30 season.

Given all of this, it seems unlikely he would settle for much less than the $100MM Musgrove received, and it seems even more unlikely the Cardinals would make such a risky investment at this point, even with their significant concerns about the future of their rotation. Taken together, it seems that if the Cardinals are going to look to lock up some of the members of their rotation before season’s end, they’d be better off looking toward Mikolas and Montgomery than Flaherty, even despite all the tantalizing talent he brings to the table.

NL Notes: Cardinals, Doolittle, Colome

By Nick Deeds | February 12, 2023 at 1:06pm CDT

The Cardinals are receiving positive signs about their rotation for 2023, as Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that the club has “rising optimism” regarding the health of right-hander Jack Flaherty ahead of Spring Training.

Flaherty was once among the brightest talents on the St. Louis roster, as he placed in the top 4 of Cy Young voting in 2019 after a campaign that saw him post a 2.75 ERA (152 ERA+) over 196 1/3 innings, while also leading the NL in WHIP. Since then, however, Flaherty has struggled with injuries and ineffectiveness; he struggled badly in the shortened 2020 season to the tune of a 4.91 ERA (86 ERA+) in 40 1/3 innings, and his battles with shoulder injuries in recent years have led him to make just 12 starts from the second half of the 2021 season onward.

If Flaherty is indeed healthy, Goold notes that he could transform the look of a Cardinals rotation that’s full of solid arms but lacking in terms of ace-caliber talent. When he’s taken the mound in recent years, Flaherty has lost a tick of velocity on his pitches across the board, though it’s possible that better health could see him get back up to averaging just over 94 mph on his fastball as he did in 2019.

NL Central Notes: Cards’ Rotation, McCutchen, Cubs

By Simon Hampton | January 14, 2023 at 9:37am CDT

While the Cardinals are again shaping up nicely to compete for top honors in the National League Central, they’ll be faced with some important decisions a year or so from now. Among their starting rotation, only Steven Matz is signed beyond the 2023 season, with Jordan Montgomery, Adam Wainwright (who will retire), Miles Mikolas and Jack Flaherty all slated for free agency in November.

Replacing four starters in free agency is no easy feat, particularly given the way starting pitchers were priced this winter, and while they do have Dakota Hudson and prospect Matthew Liberatore as options, it should come as little surprise that Derrick Goold of the St Louis Post-Dispatch reports that the team is planning to open discussions over an extension with two starters this spring.

As Goold notes, Mikolas and Montgomery would appear to be the obvious candidates, with Flaherty a possibility as well – although he has dealt with injuries over the past few years. Montgomery, 30 last month, worked to a 3.11 ERA over 11 starts for the Cards after coming over from the Yankees at the deadline last year. He’s been a steady mid-rotation arm for a few years now and agreed to a $10MM salary in his final year before free agency. Mid-rotation arms such as Taijuan Walker and Jameson Taillon were sought-after commodities in free agency this year, and Montgomery would likely fit into that bracket next winter.

Mikolas, 34, worked to a 3.29 ERA over 202 1/3 innings last season. Another year like that in 2023 would set him up for a nice payday late in his career, so perhaps the the Cardinals could try and get ahead of that and lock up Mikolas for another few seasons.

Here’s some more notes from around the NL Central:

The Pirates move to bring back franchise icon Andrew McCutchen has been met with positivity around baseball, and Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette sheds some more light on the matter. As it turns out, a return to Pittsburgh seemed unlikely until as recently as New Year’s Day when McCutchen sent a text message to Pirates owner Bob Nutting laying out his desire to return to Pittsburgh to finish his career. As Mackey relays, Nutting then approached general manager Ben Cherington, who then met McCutchen for coffee in Pittsburgh’s northern suburbs to see if a deal could be made.While veteran signings on rebuilding clubs are often done with an eye towards the trade deadline, Mackey reports that it’s more likely McCutchen returns to the Pirates in 2024 than is flipped at the deadline. That’s not to say there’s no chance of a trade, but it does seem like McCutchen is motivated by helping Pittsburgh’s young core return to relevance, and Mackey adds that the 2013 MVP sees similarities in Pittsburgh’s 2009-12 rebuild that wound up in the team going to the playoffs three straight years between 2013-15. The Pirates don’t seem quite ready to return to playoff baseball just yet, but it would make for quite the fairytale if McCutchen were to be part of the next playoff team in Pittsburgh.
The Cubs have been aggressive in free agency this winter as they look to return to the top of the Central. The team has inked long-term deals with Dansby Swanson, Jameson Taillon and Drew Smyly, while also adding the likes of Cody Bellinger on significant deals. The team currently has a bit of wiggle room under the first luxury tax marker, but they’ll surely be approaching it over the next few years as they make more free agent additions and deal with Nico Hoerner’s arbitration raises. Per a report from Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune, owner Tom Ricketts spoke of a strategic approach to the luxury tax as the team moves forward.“There will be times I’m sure in the near future where we’ll go over. But we’ll always keep in mind that there’s a balance there you have to always look to manage. Just like we did a few years ago, we’ll go over, but we have to be careful of how long and by how much,” Ricketts said.The Cubs’ luxury tax payroll currently sits at $215MM (according to Fangraphs’ calculation), with the first threshold coming at $233MM.

Make Or Break Year: Jack Flaherty

By Mark Polishuk | January 8, 2023 at 10:55pm CDT

Jack Flaherty posted a 3.01 ERA, 29.8% strikeout rate, and 8.2% walk rate over 347 1/3 innings during the 2018-19 seasons, finishing fifth in NL Rookie Of The Year voting in 2018 and then fourth in Cy Young Award voting in 2019. After coming up through the Cardinals’ farm system as a top-100 ranked prospect, it certainly looked like Flaherty was living up to that potential, and establishing himself as a frontline pitcher in St. Louis heading into the next decade.

Since then, however, things haven’t gone nearly as smoothly. He was one of several Cardinals sidelined by a COVID-19 outbreak in 2020, missing four weeks of an already shortened season and finishing with a 4.91 ERA over 40 1/3 innings. Unfortunately, abbreviated seasons became the trend for Flaherty, as he has tossed only 114 1/3 innings over 26 games since the start of the 2021 campaign.

An oblique strain and a shoulder strain limited Flaherty to 78 1/3 frames in 2021, and the shoulder problems carried over into 2022 when Flaherty needed a PRP injection to deal with bursitis during Spring Training. The recovery time and prerequisite ramp-up time delayed Flaherty’s season debut until June, but another shoulder strain just a couple of weeks later resulted in another visit to the 60-day injured list. He was able to return for five starts and a relief appearance in September/October, but Flaherty banked only 36 total innings last season.

Adding to Flaherty’s frustration is the fact that he has been pretty effective when on the mound, particularly prior to his oblique strain in 2021. The righty had a 3.54 ERA/4.26 SIERA over those 114 1/3 innings in the last two seasons, despite the mostly stop-and-start nature of his appearances. One can only imagine how well Flaherty might have been able to pitch had he been healthy, and how an in-form version of Flaherty might’ve helped the Cardinals (winless in three postseason games in those seasons) make more of an impact in the playoffs.

Considering the small sample sizes involved, it’s hard to extrapolate much from Flaherty’s lackluster Statcast metrics in the last two years, though he at least still had above-average strikeout and walk rates in 2021. Put simply, Flaherty’s most important statistic in 2023 will be innings pitched, since good health is his only path back to true front-of-the-rotation status, or even just being a consistent member of a big league rotation.

Now entering his third and final year of salary arbitration, Flaherty’s setbacks had a significant impact on his earning potential. He won an arb hearing over the Cardinals to earn a $3.9MM salary in 2021, and then avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $5MM salary last season. With so few innings to build on in 2022, Flaherty is projected to earn only a minimal raise up to $5.1MM for the coming season.

On the plus side, just one healthy and effective season can still line Flaherty up for a hefty contract in free agency next winter. Flaherty doesn’t even turn 28 until October, so there are several prime seasons still theoretically available for any team interested in paying a premium. In this scenario, Flaherty’s agents at CAA Sports might even seek a multi-year with an early opt-out clause, which would allow Flaherty to re-enter the market prior to his age-30 or age-31 season.

But, first things first — Flaherty has to avoid any more lengthy trips to the IL. Rotation-mate Steven Matz is in the same boat after an injury-marred 2022 season, and Matz and Flaherty are projected to pitch at the back end of a St. Louis rotation that also includes Miles Mikolas, Adam Wainwright, and Jordan Montgomery. Such pitchers as Dakota Hudson, Matthew Liberatore, Jake Woodford, and Zack Thompson are also on hand for depth, and while the Cardinals are certainly prioritizing winning over auditioning younger pitchers, the team may feel some pressure to see what they have in their controllable arms. Matz is the only member of the projected starting five who is under contract beyond 2023, as Flaherty, Montgomery, Wainwright (who might retire), and Mikolas are all free agents.

With this many rotation holes to address, it seems probable that the Cardinals will broach an extension with at least one pitcher this spring, yet Flaherty is probably the least likely to work out a long-term deal. Based on his lack of innings or real results in the last two seasons, Flaherty probably doesn’t want to risk undercutting his earning potential in advance of what he naturally hopes will be a rebound season, and the Cards likewise might not want to make a big investment in a pitcher who has been such an injury magnet for two years running.

It sets the stage for an intriguing season for the 27-year-old righty, as Flaherty might be heading into his final year in St. Louis regardless of how well he pitches. Either another injury-plagued year leads the Cardinals to move on, or Flaherty might himself depart for a big free agent contract on the heels of a successful bounce-back campaign.

Cardinals Activate Jack Flaherty, Designate Junior Fernandez

By Anthony Franco | September 5, 2022 at 2:07pm CDT

As expected, the Cardinals reinstated Jack Flaherty from the 60-day injured list before this afternoon’s game with the Nationals. Righty Dakota Hudson has been optioned to Triple-A Memphis to create an active roster spot, while reliever Junior Fernández was designated for assignment in a corresponding 40-man roster move.

Flaherty makes his return to the Busch Stadium mound for what’ll be his first MLB appearance since July 11. The right-hander left his final start before the All-Star Break with shoulder discomfort, his second extended shoulder-related absence of the year. Flaherty’s season debut was delayed until June 15 due to bursitis, and the star hurler revealed in Spring Training he’s pitched through a labrum tear in the area for years.

It’s been the second consecutive injury-plagued season for Flaherty, who also had extended IL stints last year due to an oblique strain and shoulder troubles. He started 15 of his 17 outings last season but has been limited to three starts in 2022. The absences certainly seemed to have a deleterious effect on Flaherty’s performance earlier this year, as he was tagged for six runs in eight innings with nine walks and only six strikeouts. He averaged 92.1 MPH on his fastball, down two ticks from his 94 MPH heater of 2019-20.

With a month remaining on the regular season schedule, Flaherty will get a few chances to try to recapture that form. At his best, he’s shown ace-like potential and could be a postseason weapon. He finished fourth in NL Cy Young balloting back in 2019, when he posted a sparkling 2.75 ERA with a 29.9% strikeout rate across a career-best 196 1/3 innings.

St. Louis holds an 8 1/2 game lead over the Brewers in the NL Central, having all but officially secured control of the division with a 25-7 record dating back to the start of August. They’re still 5 1/2 games behind the NL East-leading Mets for the second seed in the Senior Circuit, giving them an uphill battle if they’re to take hold of a first-round bye. If they wind up finishing in third place in the league, they’d host the final Wild Card qualifier in a three-game series. How manager Oliver Marmol deploys Flaherty in that set could well depend on the form he shows down the stretch. Adam Wainwright and deadline acquisition Jordan Montgomery have been brilliant and look like postseason starters, with Flaherty joining José Quintana and the struggling Miles Mikolas as options for a third start.

Flaherty’s return bumps Hudson from the primary five. While St. Louis announced last week that he’d pitch out of the bullpen, they’ll instead send him back to Memphis to work from the rotation there. Rob Rains of STLSportsPage tweets that the club still plans to bring Hudson back to make a start on September 17th, when the Cards will play a doubleheader against the Reds. Today’s demotion allows him to exhaust the required 10 days in the minors for optioned players, although it remains to be seen if he’ll stick with the big league club in relief from then forward or immediately head back to Triple-A.

A longtime member of the rotation, the sinkerballing Hudson has had an inconsistent 2022 campaign. He’s made 24 starts but posted a 4.43 ERA, striking out batters at a well below-average 13.5% clip. Hudson’s 52.8% ground-ball rate is still very strong, but it’s down from the 56.9% mark he posted in his best season back in 2019. He’s had a particularly rough go of things in the season’s second half, carrying a 5.52 ERA in 29 1/3 frames since the All-Star Break.

The demotion won’t have any impact on Hudson from a service time perspective, even if his return 12 days from now is a one-off recall. He’s already surpassed the four-year service threshold this season, meaning he remains on track to first reach free agency after 2024. The Cards would owe him a raise on this year’s modest $1.05MM salary if they tender him an arbitration contract after the season.

As for Fernández, he’ll now find himself on the waiver wire within the next few days. A member of the St. Louis organization since signing as an amateur free agent in 2014, he first reached the majors five years later. Fernández has bounced on and off the active roster for the past four seasons, tallying 50 2/3 innings over 47 cumulative appearances. He owns just a 5.51 ERA in that time, fanning 19% of batters faced with a very high 13.1% walk percentage.

The 6’3″ hurler has a 2.93 ERA over 13 MLB appearances this season, but that’s been paired with the more pedestrian strikeout and walk rates he’s posted throughout his career. He’s had a tougher go from a run prevention perspective in Memphis, where he’s allowed more than five earned runs per nine through 36 appearances out of the bullpen.

While Fernández hasn’t had a ton of MLB success to this point, the 25-year-0ld could generate some interest on the waiver wire. He’s averaged a blistering 98.8 MPH on his heater during his big league time this season. He’s also induced grounders on more than half the batted balls against him at both the major league and Triple-A levels. Any team that claims him off waivers could keep him in Triple-A for the rest of this season, but he’ll be out of options next year and would have to break camp with another team or again hit the waiver wire.

Katie Woo of the Athletic first reported Hudson would be optioned.

Pitching Notes: Wheeler, Pomeranz, Flaherty, Hudson

By Mark Polishuk | September 3, 2022 at 7:49am CDT

Zack Wheeler underwent an MRI Thursday that didn’t reveal any structural damage, Phillies interim manager Rob Thomson told NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Jim Salisbury and other reporters. Wheeler received the testing after feeling soreness during a catch session, and while the issue seems to be just be elbow inflammation, it does present new questions about when Wheeler will be able to return to the rotation. The right-hander was retroactively placed on the 15-day injured list on August 22, and was expected to miss two starts while recovering from forearm tendinitis.

“It’s feeling better and I’m sure if this was a playoff game, he’d say, ’Give me the ball.’ But he’s still feeling it a little bit so we’re going to wait and re-evaluate on Monday or Tuesday,” Thomson said. The skipper said he isn’t too concerned about Wheeler’s status, but Wheeler won’t be activated from the IL on Tuesday, his first day of eligibility for reinstatement. Wheeler is enjoying another strong season and has been a big part of the Phillies’ success, and the club naturally needs the righty back as soon as possible (health permitting) for the stretch run.

More on other pitching situations around baseball….

Drew Pomeranz has yet to pitch this season after undergoing flexor tendon surgery in August 2021, and his chances of a return seemingly took a hit when his rehab was shut down due to soreness two weeks ago. However, Padres manager Bob Melvin told reporters (including Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune) that Pomeranz played catch on Friday and is slated to throw later this week. After the shutdown, Pomeranz had a checkup with Dr. Neal ElAttrache but was told that some soreness is a routine part of the recovery process. “There’s still a chance to get [Pomeranz] back here before the season is over,” Melvin said.
The Cardinals will activate Jack Flaherty off the 60-day IL Monday for a start against the Nationals. Shoulder problems have limited Flaherty to only eight innings over three starts this season, marking his second consecutive injury-marred year. With Flaherty back, Cards manager Oliver Marmol told reporters (including Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch) that Dakota Hudson will move to the bullpen for now, and might not start again until a doubleheader against the Reds on September 17. Despite below-average Statcast metrics almost across the board, Hudson has managed a 4.43 ERA over 126 innings, though his SIERA is a less-favorable 5.11. It doesn’t seem like either Flaherty or Hudson are candidates for starting assignments in the postseason, though their work in September and October will give Marmol and company more to think about in determining roles on playoff rosters.

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