Jordan Hicks

Astros, Rangers, Red Sox, Angels Among Teams Interested In Jordan Hicks

By Nick Deeds | December 5, 2023 at 11:15am CDT

December 5: The Angels and Red Sox have also checked in on Hicks, per Ari Alexander of KPRC 2. Both clubs could use some bullpen reinforcements, with Boston relievers having posted a collective 4.32 ERA in 2023 while the Angels were at 4.88.

December 4: The Astros, Rangers, Cardinals and Orioles are among the teams with interest in right-hander Jordan Hicks this offseason, per Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The Cardinals and Orioles having interest is no surprise since they had previously been linked to the 27-year-old earlier in the offseason. The connections to the Rangers and Astros, however, are new.

The Rangers make plenty of sense as a potential fit for Hicks. The reigning World Series champions got excellent results out of their offense and starting pitching in 2023, but faced significant struggles in the bullpen. The club’s relief corps combined for a 4.77 ERA that was bottom-seven in the majors, while the group’s 4.45 FIP and 2.6 fWAR were also bottom-ten figures. The Twins, Diamondbacks, and Marlins were the only other playoff teams to feature a bottom-ten bullpen in even one of those three categories, and no club besides the Rangers appeared in the bottom of those leaderboards more than once.

That acute need for bullpen additions has led the Rangers to be frequently connected to top-of-the-market closer Josh Hader, who posted a sensational season in 2023 with a 1.28 ERA and a 36.8% strikeout rate while picking up 33 saves in 56 1/3 innings of work with the Padres. That being said, Hader has a chance to land a record-breaking contract in free agency this offseason, with MLBTR projecting the lefty for a six-year, $110MM contract on our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list, on which he ranks eighth overall. Coming off a World Series championship in 2023 and a pair of offseasons where they were among the league’s biggest spenders, it’s possible that sort of contract won’t be a problem for Texas.

That being said, GM Chris Young recently cautioned that the club doesn’t expect to spend quite as lavishly this offseason as they have the past two winters. If the Rangers do find that Hader is out of their price range, Hicks could represent a more affordable alternative who has still flashed elite upside as a late-inning arm. Hicks, who was the second-highest rated reliever (#21 overall) on MLBTR’s list with a projected price tag of four years and $40MM, boasts a triple-digit fastball with sinking action that allows him to post groundball rates near 60% on a yearly basis.

While control and injury issues have dogged Hicks throughout his career, the righty is still three seasons away from his 30th birthday and impressed this season with a career-high 28.4% strikeout rate. While his 3.29 ERA hardly jumps off the page for a back-end relief arm, it’s worth noting that Hicks’ season numbers are skewed by a brutal early-season performance where he surrendered nine runs (eight earned) in just 5 2/3 innings across seven appearances. After that point, Hicks boasted a sterling 2.40 ERA and 2.59 FIP with a 30% strikeout rate against a 9.6% walk rate in his final 60 innings of work. While its not reasonable to simply ignore a rocky start to the season entirely, Hicks’s strong performance after the first two weeks of his season does highlight the tantalizing upside the right-hander has flashed throughout his career.

The Astros, on the other hand, are a somewhat less obvious suitor. Veteran righty Ryan Pressly is entrenched as the club’s closer, while young hurler Bryan Abreu has emerged as one of the best young relief arms in the league with a 1.84 ERA and 2.59 FIP across the past two seasons. That duo led the Astros’ relief corps to a sterling 3.56 ERA in 2023, the sixth-best figure in the league. Houston’s bullpen sports similarly strong advanced metrics, as only six clubs posted a better collective SIERA than the Astros’ 3.79 figure.

Good as the club’s relief corps was in 2023, however, it’s important to note that the Astros have since lost key pieces such as Hector Neris, Ryne Stanek, and Phil Maton to free agency. While Pressly and Abreu certainly make for a strong back-end duo, Houston looking to replace those outgoing arms is hardly a surprise, and few options available figure to be better than Hicks. While the Astros clearly need additional relief arms to supplement the roster, it’s fair to wonder if Hicks is the most realistic target for the club from a financial perspective. GM Dana Brown cautioned earlier in the offseason that the club doesn’t have “a ton” of financial flexibility to work with this winter while telling reporters he’s “not interested in overpaying” for bullpen arms.

Given the club’s limited financial flexibility, it would register as something of a surprise for the Astros to commit a hefty sum to a single reliever given their other needs. The Astros are known to be in the market for a backup catcher in addition to bullpen, to say nothing of the possibility they look to add a left-handed bat to replace Michael Brantley or shore up a starting rotation lacking in certainty behind Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez. While it’s impossible to deny that the addition of Hicks to a bullpen that already features Abreu and Pressly could create a three-headed monster that few teams could replicate, it’s fair as a wonder if a cheaper option could be more feasible for Houston from a financial perspective. One such option could be a reunion with Hector Neris, who The Athletic’s Chandler Rome relayed this evening Brown has been in contact with. MLBTR ranked Neris, who posted a 1.71 ERA and 3.83 FIP in 68 1/3 innings for the Astros last year, as the offseason’s #46 free agent while projecting him for a two-year, $15MM deal.

Orioles Have Shown Interest In Josh Hader, Jordan Hicks

By Anthony Franco | November 30, 2023 at 10:29pm CDT

At the GM Meetings earlier this month, Baltimore general manager Mike Elias told reporters the team was seeking a late-game reliever. They’re considering plugging that vacancy in free agency.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that the O’s have been in contact with each of Josh Hader, Jordan Hicks, Craig Kimbrel and Aroldis Chapman. All four hurlers fit the general profile of a late-inning arm, although they’re clearly in different tiers of free agency.

Hader is the best reliever in the class (and arguably the top bullpen arm in the majors). He worked to a 1.28 ERA over 56 1/3 innings during his platform season. The lanky southpaw punched out 36.8% of batters faced. That’s actually Hader’s lowest strikeout percentage since his rookie year, yet it still ranked fifth in MLB among relievers with 50+ innings. Only Chris Martin and Brusdar Graterol had a lower earned run average.

After frequently working multiple innings earlier in his career, Hader has expressed a preference for a traditional one-inning role over the past couple years. The Padres deployed him as a closer. He picked up 33 saves in 38 attempts.

The year marked an emphatic bounce back from a 2022 season in which he’d posted an uncharacteristic 5.22 ERA. Hader has posted an ERA under 1.30 in two of the last three years and has five sub-3.00 showings over his seven MLB seasons. While he’s a year older than Edwin Díaz was last offseason, Hader figures to take aim at topping Diaz’s $102MM guarantee with the Mets — the largest relief contract in MLB history.

Committing a nine-figure deal would be far bolder than any free agent decision that the Elias front office has made. The O’s have remarkably yet to sign a single multi-year free agent deal in his five years as GM. Much of that came during a rebuild, of course, but the O’s remained cautious even as they’d begun to turn a corner last winter. Baltimore signed a trio of veterans (Kyle Gibson, Adam Frazier and Mychal Givens) for a combined $23MM on one-year guarantees.

After a breakout season that saw the O’s win 101 games to take the top seed in the American League, the front office should be more aggressive than ever. Bringing in Hader would represent a very significant shift in operating procedure. In addition to the huge financial commitment, Baltimore would have to relinquish their third-highest pick in next summer’s draft. Hader declined a qualifying offer from the Padres, so he’s attached to signing compensation.

If the O’s are willing to meet those costs, Hader is a sensible target. He’s one of the few relievers who can approach the kind of production the O’s lost when Félix Bautista underwent Tommy John surgery that’ll cost him the entire 2024 season. Hader is also a Maryland native who began his professional career as a 19th-round pick by the Orioles in 2012. While that selection was made by a previous front office, Elias was a high-ranking scouting official with the Astros when Houston acquired Hader as a prospect at the 2013 deadline.

Hader is in his own tier as a free agent relief target. Hicks finds himself in the next group, arguably the #2 option on the open market. One of the hardest throwers in the sport, he averages around 100 MPH on his sinker. Hicks has wobbly control but consistently runs huge ground-ball numbers. He’s coming off arguably the best season of his career, turning in 65 2/3 innings of 3.29 ERA ball between the Cardinals and Blue Jays. The righty struck out a solid 28.4% of batters faced, the highest rate of his career.

Injuries (most notably a June ’19 Tommy John procedure) dogged Hicks between 2019-21. He has mostly stayed healthy over the past two seasons, topping 60 frames in each. He’s also the youngest free agent reliever of note, having turned 27 in September. Hicks should secure at least three years and has a solid case for a four-year pact at an average annual value in the $8-10MM range.

Chapman and Kimbrel would be shorter-term plays. Two of the best closers of their generation, they’re each entering their age-36 campaign. Both pitchers have battled some inconsistency in recent seasons, but they’re coming off solid 2023 performances. Chapman worked to a 3.09 ERA with an eye-popping 41.4% strikeout percentage over 58 1/3 frames between the Royals and Rangers. Kimbrel posted a 3.26 ERA while fanning a little over a third of his opponents in 69 regular season innings with Philadelphia, although he struggled over six innings in the playoffs.

Cardinals Plan To Add “At Least Two” Relief Arms This Offseason

By Nick Deeds | October 31, 2023 at 1:54pm CDT

It’s long been understood that the top priority for the Cardinals this offseason is adding to their starting rotation, with president of baseball operations John Mozeliak himself stating that the club intends to at three starting pitchers this winter. Even as the club’s focus seems to be on bolstering the rotation, however, The Athletic’s Katie Woo indicated today that the club plans to make additions to its relief corps as well, noting that the club plans to add “at least two high-leverage arms” who can join Ryan Helsley and Giovanny Gallegos in the club’s late-inning mix.

The news isn’t necessarily surprising. Cardinals relievers posted an uninspiring 4.47 ERA across their 579 2/3 innings covered in 2023, the third-worst figure in the NL above only the Nationals and Rockies. Only the Rangers’ relief corps had a higher ERA than the Cardinals this year when looking at teams that finished the season with a winning record, and just four (Texas, Cincinnati, Miami, and Arizona) even finished in the bottom half of the league. Given St. Louis has clearly indicated a desire to return to contention as soon as next season, shoring up the club’s bullpen mix figures to be a key component of that goal.

The Cardinals have already been connected to one upcoming relief free agent: NPB left-hander Yuki Matsui, who is expected to explore signing in the majors this offseason. While fellow southpaw JoJo Romero impressed in high leverage opportunities following the trade deadline, it would certainly reasonable if the Cardinals don’t want to anoint Romero as their bullpen’s top lefty after just 36 2/3 innings of work in the majors last year, no matter how brilliant he appeared to be in flashes.

Of course, Matsui isn’t the only left-handed relief option headed for free agency this offseason. The class is led by star closer Josh Hader, who authored a sensational platform season with the Padres in 2023. Hader struck out 36.8% of batters faced this season en route to a 1.28 ERA (321 ERA+), 2.69 FIP and 33 saves in 38 chances. Other potential high-leverage left-handers set to hit the market this offseason are veteran fireballer Aroldis Chapman and journeyman Matt Moore, who’s broken out over the past two seasons to become one of the top lefty relievers in the sport during his mid-thirties.

In terms of right-handed relief options, the market is a little thinner, headlined by former Cardinals closer Jordan Hicks. The Cardinals dealt Hicks to the Blue Jays at the trade deadline this year, though not before attempting to negotiate an extension with the 27-year-old hurler. Woo reports that the sides came close to an agreement on a three-year extension this summer before talks ultimately fell apart, prompting St. Louis to ship Hicks to Toronto.

Despite the sides parting back in July, Woo indicates that there’s reason to believe the sides could again look to negotiate a long-term deal this offseason, noting that “there’s no ruling out” a Cardinals reunion with either Hicks or left-handed starter Jordan Montgomery, who has impressed since joining the Rangers with a 2.79 ERA in 11 starts down the stretch and a 2.90 ERA in 31 innings of work during the club’s pennant-winning postseason run. If the Cardinals can’t get together with Hicks on a reunion, there are a few other right-handed relief options who could offer high leverage innings in 2023, including Braves righty Joe Jimenez as well as Reynaldo Lopez, who put up solid numbers while bouncing between the White Sox, Angels, and Guardians in 2023.

NL Central Notes: Molina, Cardinals, Marlins, Kelly, Pirates

By Mark Polishuk | October 24, 2023 at 3:26pm CDT

With Yadier Molina and the Cardinals in talks about a coaching job for the longtime catcher, Molina discussed the situation in an interview with 550 KTRS radio (hat tip to Luis Nolla of KTRS for the partial transcript). “I think there is something cooking with St. Louis,” Molina said, estimating “a 90 percent chance that it happens.” After retiring following the 2022 season, Molina revealed that he had offers for some kind of coaching roles from both the Cardinals last year and from the Marlins.

In terms of his coaching future in general, Molina said “I see myself managing, coaching in the United States for a few years. I like it. I am a guy that is fascinated with baseball, and I am passionate about it. To have an opportunity like that I cannot pass….St. Louis has given me the opportunity. It is my second home. There is always a good relationship and communication with them. They are trying to guide me to that way, in the matter of being a coach. They have their staff who have a good job with the team. It would be an opportunity that it will be hard to say no to. I love St. Louis.”

Blue Jays Acquire Jordan Hicks

By Nick Deeds | July 30, 2023 at 4:08pm CDT

The Blue Jays landed one of the most sought-after bullpen arms on the trade market Sunday, announcing the acquisition of righty Jordan Hicks from the Cardinals in exchange for Double-A right-handers Sem Robberse and Adam Kloffenstein. In a corresponding roster move, Toronto designated righty Mitch White for assignment. Hicks had previously been reported to be discussing an extension with the Cardinals ahead of the trade deadline on August 1, though those discussions seemingly stalled out earlier in the week.

Hicks, 26, was a third-round pick in the 2015 draft by the Cardinals. He made his big league debut back in 2018 and threw 77 2/3 innings in his first big league season, with a 3.59 ERA and 3.74 FIP. While he generated an impressive 60.7% groundball rate in his rookie campaign, he posted a lackluster 20.6% strikeout rate and struggled badly with his control to the point of walking 13.3% of batters faced. Early on in his sophomore 2019 season, Hicks required Tommy John surgery. That surgery began a series of injuries and setbacks that would limit him to just 38 2/3 innings of work from 2019-21.

Finally fully healthy in 2022, the Cardinals decided to try using Hicks as a member of the rotation. That experiment did not go well, as Hicks posted a 5.84 ERA and 5.54 FIP in 24 2/3 innings of work across seven starts while walking a whopping 16% of batters faced over that stretch. While he pitched a bit better upon returning to the bullpen, he nonetheless finished the 2022 campaign with 4.84 ERA and 13.3% walk rate in 61 1/3 innings of work.

The 2023 campaign started off difficultly for Hicks once again, as he yielded a whopping nine runs (eight earned) in just 5 2/3 innings of work in his first seven appearances of the year. Since then, however, he’s settled in as one of the most dominant relievers in baseball over the past few months. Since April 18, Hicks sports a 2.25 ERA and a sterling 1.92 FIP in 36 innings of work. He’s cut his walk rate to 10.4% in that time, a figure that, while somewhat elevated, is more than made up for by a phenomenal 34.4% strikeout rate. Hicks also sports a characteristically excellent 58.3% groundball rate this season, a figure that has led him to allow just two home runs all season, and none since he got his season back on track in mid-April.

Hicks’s dominant arm makes him a perfect candidate for Toronto’s bullpen, as the Blue Jays lost closer Jordan Romano to the 15-day injured list earlier this weekend thanks to lower back inflammation. While it’s possible Romano will return fairly quickly after the minimum 15-day stint, he’s been plagued by the issue since it caused him to depart the All Star game earlier this month. Still, it would hardly be a surprise to see the Blue Jays take additional time to ensure their closer is fully healthy upon his return given both the nagging nature of the issue and the importance of Romano, who leads the AL with 28 saves this season and sports a 2.79 ERA in 42 innings this season, to the club’s success.

In return for Hicks’s services, the Blue Jays are paying a hefty prospect toll. Robberse appears to be the headliner in the deal as the club’s seventh-best prospect according to MLB Pipeline and their sixth-best prospect according to Fangraphs. Originally signed out of the Netherlands back in 2019, the 21-year-old hurler sports a 92-94 mph fastball, quality secondary offerings in both a changeup and a slider, and plus command. In 113 1/3 innings of work at the Double-A level, Robberse owns a 3.97 ERA and a strikeout rate of 22%.

Kloffenstein, meanwhile, goes unranked on both Pipeline’s and Fangraphs’s lists. Fangraphs describes Kloffenstein as a pitcher with a four-pitch mix highlighted by a sinker and a slider, though it ultimately pegs him as more of an innings-eating, depth starter type. That evaluation, however, is from prior to the 2023 campaign, where Kloffenstein has impressed to this point. Toronto’s third-round pick in the 2018 draft has shoved across 89 innings of work at Double-A this season to the tune of a 3.24 ERA with a strikeout rate of 27.6%, a figure well above his career rate of 23.5% entering the 2023 campaign.

Both Kloffenstein and Robberse clearly fit the mold of return the Cardinals have reportedly been looking for in dangling their rental arms this summer: controllable, upper-level starting pitching prospects. Both Robberse and Kloffenstein project as starters going forward and have over 100 innings of experience at Double-A, with Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat noting that both hurlers are set to be promoted to Triple-A by the Cardinals organization. Given that promotion, it seems reasonable to assume both pitchers will be on the big league radar for sometime in 2024, barring injury or ineffectiveness changing the timeline.

The deal also spells the end of White’s time in Toronto. A second-round selection by the Dodgers in the 2016 draft, White impressed with a 3.44 ERA and 3.78 FIp in 49 2/3 innings of work across his first two seasons in the majors. He continued his success in a Dodgers uniform in 2022 with a 3.70 ERA and 3.95 FIP in 56 innings of work, but the club dealt White to Toronto at the trade deadline last season. Since joining the Blue Jays, White has struggled mightily, with a 7.60 ERA in 55 2/3 innings of work. While he posted a 4.03 FIP that far outstrips his results as a member of the Jays, his walk rate has ticked up to 11.7% this season, a level unlikely to be sustainable given his mediocre 21.7% strikeout rate. Going forward, Toronto will have one week to either waive or release White, assuming he himself isn’t traded before the deadline on August 1.

Craig Mish of the Miami Herald first reported that Hicks had been traded to Toronto. FanSided’s Robert Murray reported that Kloffenstein was part of the return. Shi Davidi of Sportsnet first reported Robberse’s inclusion in the deal.

Cardinals Rumors: Montgomery, Flaherty, Bullpen, Outfield

By Nick Deeds | July 30, 2023 at 10:44am CDT

The Cardinals are perhaps the most intriguing seller of this trade deadline. The preseason favorite for the NL Central expected to build upon a 93-win campaign in 2022, the team has failed to live up to expectations with a brutal 46-60 record that leaves them in last place in the division and ahead of only the Rockies and Nationals in the NL. With the club’s eyes turned toward the future, speculation has run rampant regarding many of the club’s interesting pieces, both those who are set to hit free agency after the season and those who are under team control longer-term.

Despite their status as the league’s premiere seller, the Cardinals have largely been quiet to this point with the trade deadline just over 48 hours away. While reports earlier in the week hinted at the possibility of a blockbuster involving third baseman Nolan Arenado, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak firmly shut those rumors down yesterday. While Arenado may not be on the move, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch recently discussed a bevy of other rumors regarding the club’s options ahead of the trade deadline.

Most clearly positioned to move over the next two days are the club’s duo of mid-rotation rental starters: left-hander Jordan Montgomery and right-hander Jack Flaherty. Goold notes that both players, along with closer Jordan Hicks, are generating interest throughout the league, though the returns on each of those players, if traded by themselves, would reportedly not fit the mold of the Cardinals’ preferred return: controllable, major-league ready starting pitching.

That’s hardly a surprise, given controllable starters are typically regarded as some of the most valuable commodities in the sport. Given this, Goold indicates that the club could get creative and pair rental players with younger, controllable pieces would yield their desired return. In particular, Goold name-checks outfielders Alec Burleson and Dylan Carlson alongside relievers Giovanny Gallegos and Ryan Helsley as longer-term pieces who could be moved. In terms of potential Cardinals targets, Goold references both Yankees prospect Clayton Beeter and Mariners right-hander Logan Gilbert, though Goold cautions that Gilbert would require a “high-ceiling return.”

Recent reporting had previously indicated trade interest in Burleson from multiple clubs, and Goold reaffirms the Yankees’ previously reported interest in Carlson. Goold adds that, in addition to Carlson, the Yankees have interest in Hicks, who has also drawn interest from the Rangers. Additionally, Goold notes that the market for Flaherty and Montgomery includes the Marlins, who have scouted Flaherty in person this trade season, while the Rays are noted to have interest in St. Louis’s available pitchers more generally.

While Miami is seemingly focused on Flaherty among the club’s duo of rental starters, Jon Morosi of MLBNetwork reported last night that talks surrounding Montgomery were “gaining momentum” and that a deal was becoming increasingly likely. While Morosi didn’t specify which team the Cardinals were discussing Montgomery with, he noted that both the Diamondbacks and Orioles have engaged in discussions with St. Louis in recent days.

Rays, Diamondbacks Showing Interest In Jordan Hicks

By Anthony Franco | July 28, 2023 at 9:07pm CDT

The D-Backs and Rays are among the clubs with interest in Cardinals reliever Jordan Hicks, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (Twitter link). The Rangers were tied to the hard-throwing righty this afternoon. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch wrote this afternoon that the Yankees also had some interest in Hicks.

Hicks has seemed a likely trade candidate for a while. He’s an impending free agent on a St. Louis club that is openly turning its attention to 2024. He’s having a good season, posting a 3.67 ERA through 41 2/3 innings and climbing back to a high-leverage role. Hicks offers a rare blend of strikeouts (31.2%) and grounders (58.3%). Even with below-average control, his power arsenal is obviously appealing to clubs.

A few days ago, it seemed as if Hicks might surprisingly come off the market. The Athletic’s Katie Woo reported that his camp was in talks with the Cardinals about a potential multi-year extension. However, Goold reported yesterday those conversations hadn’t gained much traction.

Feinsand suggests an extension hasn’t entirely been ruled out. However, Woo echoed Goold’s reporting this afternoon, writing that talks have stalled and a trade seems probable.

Virtually any team with postseason aspirations this season could be a viable suitor. Even clubs that don’t need back-end bullpen help could add a reliever to the middle innings. Arizona has a stronger need than Tampa Bay on paper. The D-Backs rank 23rd in bullpen ERA (4.57) and 19th in strikeout rate (23.2%). The Rays are seventh in ERA (3.74) and 26th in strikeout percentage (22.1%). The Rays’ overall bullpen numbers are dragged down a bit by how often they rely on relievers and bulk pitchers following openers. Only the A’s and Giants have used their bullpen for more innings, which will naturally weigh down their dominance on a rate basis.

Of course, there’s no indication the bidding for Hicks is down to Texas, New York, Arizona and Tampa Bay. The Cardinals’ front office is presumably in conversations with a number of clubs about their trade candidates. Hicks joins Chris Stratton as impending free agent relievers on the St. Louis roster. Starters Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty are also headed to the open market and likely to be dealt this summer. Their markets are mostly unreported, but each of Texas, Arizona and Tampa Bay is also known to be looking for rotation help. Shortstop Paul DeJong figures to move as well.

Those short-term assets — paired with Dylan Carlson, who has gotten increasingly squeezed out of the outfield picture — have seemed St. Louis’ most likely trade pieces. Brendan Donovan and Tommy Edman have drawn interest from other clubs, but Woo unsurprisingly writes the Cardinals aren’t interested in trading them. That’s also true of power-hitting second baseman Nolan Gorman, who has five seasons of club control beyond this one.

Rangers Pursuing Jordan Hicks

By Steve Adams | July 28, 2023 at 10:55am CDT

The Cardinals have been hopeful of working out an extension with closer Jordan Hicks, but as of yesterday, talks had failed to progress. There’s no indication yet that the Cardinals feel an extension decidedly will not be reached, but while the situation remains unresolved, the Rangers have been angling to hammer out a trade bringing Hicks to Texas, tweets Bob Nightengale of USA Today.

MLB.com’s Jon Morosi recently reported that the Rangers have been exploring trades that could simultaneously address both their rotation and bullpen needs; speculatively speaking, the Cardinals could be a match in such a deal, with both Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty expected to be traded between now and Tuesday’s deadline. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News offered a similar report this morning, noting that Texas could look to do the bulk of its shopping in one trade. Grant echoes prior reports that Texas has talked to the White Sox about Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly, and he further adds that the Rangers have some degree of interest in Sox relievers Keynan Middleton, Kendall Graveman and Aaron Bummer.

Hicks would be the second power arm added to the Texas bullpen in the past month. The Rangers jumped the relief market and kicked off the summer trade season by acquiring Aroldis Chapman from the Royals in late June, and it’s been well documented that they’re still looking for bullpen reinforcements.

Hicks, a free agent at season’s end despite still being just 26 years old, would fill that need in spades. He’s shaken off a rocky start to the season and been one of the most dominant bullpen arms in the sport dating back to early May. In his past 28 2/3 frames, the flamethrowing righty has pitched to a 1.88 ERA with a 31.4% strikeout rate, an 8.5% walk rate and a mammoth 66.7% ground-ball rate — all while averaging a blistering 100.6 mph on his sinker. He’s doing so while playing on a modest $1.8375MM salary agreed upon over the winter to avoid arbitration in his final season of eligibility.

Overall, Hicks currently sports a 3.67 ERA in 41 2/3 innings, though fielding-independent metrics like FIP (3.02) and SIERA (3.40) are a bit more bullish. Command has long been an issue for Hicks, but after walking nearly 20% of his opponents through May 7, he’s since sporting that previously mentioned 8.5% rate — roughly in line with the league average.

Durability has been the other primary knock on Hicks. Since debuting as a 21-year-old back in 2018, he’s pitched just 219 1/3 big league innings. A 2019 UCL tear ended that season in June and sidelined him for the entire 2020 campaign, and Hicks has also spent time on the injured list due to inflammation in that surgically repaired elbow, a flexor strain in his right arm, and neck spasms. The 77 2/3 innings he pitched as a rookie still represent a career-high, and the 40 appearances he’s made this season already mark the second-highest total of his career, next to that rookie campaign.

Hicks has avoided the injured list this season and generally been able to take the ball whenever the Cards have needed, however. He’s frequently worked back-to-back days and pitched on three consecutive days as recently as mid-June. He’s seen a modest dip in his velocity of late, “only” averaging 99.6 mph on his sinker over his past six appearances, though that includes a 100.4 mph average in his most recent appearance.

As for the White Sox group, any would add a talented arm to the back of the Texas ’pen. I took a look at Middleton’s quiet resurgence earlier this month, although he’s been scuffling of late — with a dozen runs allowed in his past 14 innings. He’s still carrying a 3.82 ERA, 30.7% strikeout rate and 10.7% walk rate this year while averaging nearly 96 mph on his heater (and playing on a low-cost deal). Graveman, signed through 2024 on a deal that pays him $8MM annually, has a 3.48 ERA with a roughly average 22.6% strikeout rate and an elevated 10.6% walk rate. His typically excellent ground-ball rate has wilted to a below-average 39.4% in 2023. Bummer has struggled to an ERA north of 6.00 but still has excellent strikeout and grounder rates on the year, with a lofty BABIP and unusually low strand rate contributing to his struggles (as I explored in a bit more detail yesterday).

Extension Talks Have Not Progressed Between Cardinals, Jordan Hicks

By Darragh McDonald | July 27, 2023 at 3:58pm CDT

The Cardinals are going into the deadline looking to make moves that help the 2024 club. That’s likely to involve trading impending free agents like Jack Flaherty and Jordan Montgomery. Though Jordan Hicks is also an impending free agent, it was reported earlier this week that he and the club were discussing an extension, perhaps keeping him in St. Louis. However, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports today that those talks have not progressed and he is garnering trade interest.

Hicks, 26, has long been one of the hardest throwers in the league, averaging north of 100 mph on his fastball since he debuted back in 2018. Oddly, he wasn’t about to translate that velocity into elite strikeout stuff. He came into this season having punched out 23% of batters faced, a mark that’s roughly around typical league averages. He did get grounders at an excellent 61.1% clip but also issued walks to 13.4% of batters. His 4.05 ERA prior to this season was fine but not especially exciting.

This year, he finally seems to have had a breakout. He’s thrown 41 2/3 innings for the season, striking out 31.2% of opponents in the process. His 12.7% walk rate is still on the high side, but he’s also still getting grounders on 58.3% of balls in play. That combination is difficult to come by, as among pitchers with at least a 30% strikeout rate in at least 40 innings this year, only Jhoan Durán of the Twins has a higher ground ball rate. Hicks has a 3.67 ERA for the year but may have deserved better, since his .366 batting average on balls in play is above his career rate and the league average, leading to a 3.02 FIP and 3.40 SIERA. Those results have come with Hicks taking over the closing role while Ryan Helsley is on the injured list, racking up eight saves in the past six weeks.

Since Hicks debuted when he was 21, cracking the Opening Day roster in 2018, he’s now just a few months from qualifying for free agency. He’s in his final year of arbitration, making a salary of $1.838M. The Cardinals are 46-57 and have been outside contention for quite a while now. Since they seem to be more focused on the future than the present, it makes sense to move on from Hicks and exchange him for more controllable players, especially now that extension talks haven’t found much traction.

Just about every contending club can use bullpen upgrades at this time of year, so Hicks should get plenty of interest. His previous track record isn’t as dominant as this season and he’s had some health concerns, including a Tommy John surgery in 2019, but acquiring clubs wouldn’t be making long-term commitments to him. They would simply be hoping to catch lightning in a bottle for a few months to help with a postseason push. The trade deadline is August 1.

Cardinals, Jordan Hicks Discussing Extension

By Anthony Franco | July 25, 2023 at 11:56pm CDT

The Cardinals are exploring a multi-year contract extension with closer Jordan Hicks, reports Katie Woo of the Athletic. Woo suggests there’s a good chance a deal can be finalized within the next day. An impending free agent, the hard-throwing righty profiles as one of the top bullpen trade candidates this summer. Obviously, an extension in advance of next Tuesday’s trade deadline would take him off the market.

Hicks, 27 in September, is amidst one of the better seasons of his career. He owns a 3.67 ERA across 41 2/3 innings in 40 appearances. He’s striking hitters out at a personal-best 31.2% rate while inducing grounders on a huge 58.2% of batted balls. Hicks and Twins’ star Jhoan Durán are the only relievers (minimum 30 innings) with a strikeout rate north of 30% and a ground-ball rate exceeding 55%.

That outlier combination of whiffs and grounders is built on velocity almost unmatched around the league. Hicks averages an eye-popping 100.5 MPH on the sinker that serves as his go-to offering. Only Durán and Aroldis Chapman throw harder.

Hicks hasn’t found the same level of success that Durán and Chapman have managed at their best, however. The St. Louis hurler has allowed just under four earned runs per nine innings over 219 1/3 career frames. That’s mostly a reflection of well below-average control. He’s walking just under 13% of opponents this season and has dished out free passes at a 13.2% clip for his career.

Various health concerns also undercut him for a while after a promising debut. Hicks combined for just 38 2/3 innings between 2019-21. He underwent Tommy John surgery midway through the ’19 season. Unlikely to return until the tail end of 2020 regardless, Hicks (who has Type 1 diabetes) opted out of playing that year because of COVID-19 concerns. He battled renewed elbow discomfort the next season and was limited to just 10 appearances. He missed a month between May and June last year because of a flexor issue in his forearm but has avoided the injured list this season.

Even with the health history and bouts of wildness, Hicks would be a sensible trade target for contenders seeking bullpen help. He’s a high-octane arm who has stepped back into a high-leverage role for St. Louis, picking up eight saves and six holds. The Cards clearly value him enough to consider keeping him around beyond this season, though it remains to be seen if a deal will get across the finish line. Woo unsurprisingly notes that the 45-56 club would very likely trade Hicks if they don’t reach an extension in the coming days.

To be clear, the dialogue with Hicks’ camp is not a sign that St. Louis is walking back its forthcoming sell off. Woo reiterates that the Cards plan to trade Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty, as ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote this morning. The Cardinals had not had any extension dialogue with Montgomery’s or Flaherty’s camps before the All-Star Break, Woo writes. Both starters are impending free agents.

Montgomery would be a lock to receive and reject a qualifying offer, so the Cards could at least ensure a compensatory draft choice if he departs as a free agent. They’re likely to receive a more compelling prospect package for one of the top starters available within the next few days, though. Flaherty is less likely to receive the QO (which Hicks also wouldn’t get), so the Cards likely wouldn’t get any compensation if those players were neither traded nor extended.

Additionally, Woo reports that the Cardinals are finding trade interest in each of Chris Stratton, Giovanny Gallegos and Ryan Helsley. Stratton is an obvious trade candidate as an impending free agent middle reliever. There’s less urgency to move the latter two arms, as both can stick around beyond this season. Gallegos is under contract for $5.5MM next year, while his deal has a $6.5MM club option for 2025. Helsley is eligible for arbitration through the ’25 season and making a modest $2.15MM this season.

It’s sensible for St. Louis to at least consider offers, although it’d be an odd time to move Helsley. Gallegos has had a sub-4.00 ERA in each of the past five seasons. He carries a 3.92 mark with slightly above-average strikeout and walk numbers in 41 1/3 innings this year.

Helsley, owner of a fastball that sits in the upper 90s, has a 3.20 ERA with a 32% strikeout percentage in 25 frames on the season. He’s been down since June 12 with a forearm strain and was just transferred to the 60-day injured list yesterday, officially ruling him out into the second week of August. Players on the IL can still be traded, so a deal is possible. Still, it stands to reason other clubs will be wary of offering a prospect package commensurate with Helsley’s peak value at a time when there’s notable health uncertainty.

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