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Cardinals Rumors: Montgomery, Flaherty, Bullpen, Outfield

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The Cardinals are perhaps the most intriguing seller of this trade deadline. The preseason favorite for the NL Central expected to build upon a 93-win campaign in 2022, the team has failed to live up to expectations with a brutal 46-60 record that leaves them in last place in the division and ahead of only the Rockies and Nationals in the NL. With the club’s eyes turned toward the future, speculation has run rampant regarding many of the club’s interesting pieces, both those who are set to hit free agency after the season and those who are under team control longer-term.

Despite their status as the league’s premiere seller, the Cardinals have largely been quiet to this point with the trade deadline just over 48 hours away. While reports earlier in the week hinted at the possibility of a blockbuster involving third baseman Nolan Arenado, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak firmly shut those rumors down yesterday. While Arenado may not be on the move, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch recently discussed a bevy of other rumors regarding the club’s options ahead of the trade deadline.

Most clearly positioned to move over the next two days are the club’s duo of mid-rotation rental starters: left-hander Jordan Montgomery and right-hander Jack Flaherty. Goold notes that both players, along with closer Jordan Hicks, are generating interest throughout the league, though the returns on each of those players, if traded by themselves, would reportedly not fit the mold of the Cardinals’ preferred return: controllable, major-league ready starting pitching.

That’s hardly a surprise, given controllable starters are typically regarded as some of the most valuable commodities in the sport. Given this, Goold indicates that the club could get creative and pair rental players with younger, controllable pieces would yield their desired return. In particular, Goold name-checks outfielders Alec Burleson and Dylan Carlson alongside relievers Giovanny Gallegos and Ryan Helsley as longer-term pieces who could be moved. In terms of potential Cardinals targets, Goold references both Yankees prospect Clayton Beeter and Mariners right-hander Logan Gilbert, though Goold cautions that Gilbert would require a “high-ceiling return.”

Recent reporting had previously indicated trade interest in Burleson from multiple clubs, and Goold reaffirms the Yankees’ previously reported interest in Carlson. Goold adds that, in addition to Carlson, the Yankees have interest in Hicks, who has also drawn interest from the Rangers. Additionally, Goold notes that the market for Flaherty and Montgomery includes the Marlins, who have scouted Flaherty in person this trade season, while the Rays are noted to have interest in St. Louis’s available pitchers more generally.

While Miami is seemingly focused on Flaherty among the club’s duo of rental starters, Jon Morosi of MLBNetwork reported last night that talks surrounding Montgomery were “gaining momentum” and that a deal was becoming increasingly likely. While Morosi didn’t specify which team the Cardinals were discussing Montgomery with, he noted that both the Diamondbacks and Orioles have engaged in discussions with St. Louis in recent days.

Rays, Diamondbacks Showing Interest In Jordan Hicks

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The D-Backs and Rays are among the clubs with interest in Cardinals reliever Jordan Hicks, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (Twitter link). The Rangers were tied to the hard-throwing righty this afternoon. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch wrote this afternoon that the Yankees also had some interest in Hicks.

Hicks has seemed a likely trade candidate for a while. He’s an impending free agent on a St. Louis club that is openly turning its attention to 2024. He’s having a good season, posting a 3.67 ERA through 41 2/3 innings and climbing back to a high-leverage role. Hicks offers a rare blend of strikeouts (31.2%) and grounders (58.3%). Even with below-average control, his power arsenal is obviously appealing to clubs.

A few days ago, it seemed as if Hicks might surprisingly come off the market. The Athletic’s Katie Woo reported that his camp was in talks with the Cardinals about a potential multi-year extension. However, Goold reported yesterday those conversations hadn’t gained much traction.

Feinsand suggests an extension hasn’t entirely been ruled out. However, Woo echoed Goold’s reporting this afternoon, writing that talks have stalled and a trade seems probable.

Virtually any team with postseason aspirations this season could be a viable suitor. Even clubs that don’t need back-end bullpen help could add a reliever to the middle innings. Arizona has a stronger need than Tampa Bay on paper. The D-Backs rank 23rd in bullpen ERA (4.57) and 19th in strikeout rate (23.2%). The Rays are seventh in ERA (3.74) and 26th in strikeout percentage (22.1%). The Rays’ overall bullpen numbers are dragged down a bit by how often they rely on relievers and bulk pitchers following openers. Only the A’s and Giants have used their bullpen for more innings, which will naturally weigh down their dominance on a rate basis.

Of course, there’s no indication the bidding for Hicks is down to Texas, New York, Arizona and Tampa Bay. The Cardinals’ front office is presumably in conversations with a number of clubs about their trade candidates. Hicks joins Chris Stratton as impending free agent relievers on the St. Louis roster. Starters Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty are also headed to the open market and likely to be dealt this summer. Their markets are mostly unreported, but each of Texas, Arizona and Tampa Bay is also known to be looking for rotation help. Shortstop Paul DeJong figures to move as well.

Those short-term assets — paired with Dylan Carlson, who has gotten increasingly squeezed out of the outfield picture — have seemed St. Louis’ most likely trade pieces. Brendan Donovan and Tommy Edman have drawn interest from other clubs, but Woo unsurprisingly writes the Cardinals aren’t interested in trading them. That’s also true of power-hitting second baseman Nolan Gorman, who has five seasons of club control beyond this one.

Rangers Pursuing Jordan Hicks

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The Cardinals have been hopeful of working out an extension with closer Jordan Hicks, but as of yesterday, talks had failed to progress. There’s no indication yet that the Cardinals feel an extension decidedly will not be reached, but while the situation remains unresolved, the Rangers have been angling to hammer out a trade bringing Hicks to Texas, tweets Bob Nightengale of USA Today.

MLB.com’s Jon Morosi recently reported that the Rangers have been exploring trades that could simultaneously address both their rotation and bullpen needs; speculatively speaking, the Cardinals could be a match in such a deal, with both Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty expected to be traded between now and Tuesday’s deadline. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News offered a similar report this morning, noting that Texas could look to do the bulk of its shopping in one trade. Grant echoes prior reports that Texas has talked to the White Sox about Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly, and he further adds that the Rangers have some degree of interest in Sox relievers Keynan Middleton, Kendall Graveman and Aaron Bummer.

Hicks would be the second power arm added to the Texas bullpen in the past month. The Rangers jumped the relief market and kicked off the summer trade season by acquiring Aroldis Chapman from the Royals in late June, and it’s been well documented that they’re still looking for bullpen reinforcements.

Hicks, a free agent at season’s end despite still being just 26 years old, would fill that need in spades. He’s shaken off a rocky start to the season and been one of the most dominant bullpen arms in the sport dating back to early May. In his past 28 2/3 frames, the flamethrowing righty has pitched to a 1.88 ERA with a 31.4% strikeout rate, an 8.5% walk rate and a mammoth 66.7% ground-ball rate — all while averaging a blistering 100.6 mph on his sinker. He’s doing so while playing on a modest $1.8375MM salary agreed upon over the winter to avoid arbitration in his final season of eligibility.

Overall, Hicks currently sports a 3.67 ERA in 41 2/3 innings, though fielding-independent metrics like FIP (3.02) and SIERA (3.40) are a bit more bullish. Command has long been an issue for Hicks, but after walking nearly 20% of his opponents through May 7, he’s since sporting that previously mentioned 8.5% rate — roughly in line with the league average.

Durability has been the other primary knock on Hicks. Since debuting as a 21-year-old back in 2018, he’s pitched just 219 1/3 big league innings. A 2019 UCL tear ended that season in June and sidelined him for the entire 2020 campaign, and Hicks has also spent time on the injured list due to inflammation in that surgically repaired elbow, a flexor strain in his right arm, and neck spasms. The 77 2/3 innings he pitched as a rookie still represent a career-high, and the 40 appearances he’s made this season already mark the second-highest total of his career, next to that rookie campaign.

Hicks has avoided the injured list this season and generally been able to take the ball whenever the Cards have needed, however. He’s frequently worked back-to-back days and pitched on three consecutive days as recently as mid-June. He’s seen a modest dip in his velocity of late, “only” averaging 99.6 mph on his sinker over his past six appearances, though that includes a 100.4 mph average in his most recent appearance.

As for the White Sox group, any would add a talented arm to the back of the Texas ’pen. I took a look at Middleton’s quiet resurgence earlier this month, although he’s been scuffling of late — with a dozen runs allowed in his past 14 innings. He’s still carrying a 3.82 ERA, 30.7% strikeout rate and 10.7% walk rate this year while averaging nearly 96 mph on his heater (and playing on a low-cost deal). Graveman, signed through 2024 on a deal that pays him $8MM annually, has a 3.48 ERA with a roughly average 22.6% strikeout rate and an elevated 10.6% walk rate. His typically excellent ground-ball rate has wilted to a below-average 39.4% in 2023. Bummer has struggled to an ERA north of 6.00 but still has excellent strikeout and grounder rates on the year, with a lofty BABIP and unusually low strand rate contributing to his struggles (as I explored in a bit more detail yesterday).

Extension Talks Have Not Progressed Between Cardinals, Jordan Hicks

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The Cardinals are going into the deadline looking to make moves that help the 2024 club. That’s likely to involve trading impending free agents like Jack Flaherty and Jordan Montgomery. Though Jordan Hicks is also an impending free agent, it was reported earlier this week that he and the club were discussing an extension, perhaps keeping him in St. Louis. However, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports today that those talks have not progressed and he is garnering trade interest.

Hicks, 26, has long been one of the hardest throwers in the league, averaging north of 100 mph on his fastball since he debuted back in 2018. Oddly, he wasn’t about to translate that velocity into elite strikeout stuff. He came into this season having punched out 23% of batters faced, a mark that’s roughly around typical league averages. He did get grounders at an excellent 61.1% clip but also issued walks to 13.4% of batters. His 4.05 ERA prior to this season was fine but not especially exciting.

This year, he finally seems to have had a breakout. He’s thrown 41 2/3 innings for the season, striking out 31.2% of opponents in the process. His 12.7% walk rate is still on the high side, but he’s also still getting grounders on 58.3% of balls in play. That combination is difficult to come by, as among pitchers with at least a 30% strikeout rate in at least 40 innings this year, only Jhoan Durán of the Twins has a higher ground ball rate. Hicks has a 3.67 ERA for the year but may have deserved better, since his .366 batting average on balls in play is above his career rate and the league average, leading to a 3.02 FIP and 3.40 SIERA. Those results have come with Hicks taking over the closing role while Ryan Helsley is on the injured list, racking up eight saves in the past six weeks.

Since Hicks debuted when he was 21, cracking the Opening Day roster in 2018, he’s now just a few months from qualifying for free agency. He’s in his final year of arbitration, making a salary of $1.838M. The Cardinals are 46-57 and have been outside contention for quite a while now. Since they seem to be more focused on the future than the present, it makes sense to move on from Hicks and exchange him for more controllable players, especially now that extension talks haven’t found much traction.

Just about every contending club can use bullpen upgrades at this time of year, so Hicks should get plenty of interest. His previous track record isn’t as dominant as this season and he’s had some health concerns, including a Tommy John surgery in 2019, but acquiring clubs wouldn’t be making long-term commitments to him. They would simply be hoping to catch lightning in a bottle for a few months to help with a postseason push. The trade deadline is August 1.

Cardinals, Jordan Hicks Discussing Extension

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The Cardinals are exploring a multi-year contract extension with closer Jordan Hicks, reports Katie Woo of the Athletic. Woo suggests there’s a good chance a deal can be finalized within the next day. An impending free agent, the hard-throwing righty profiles as one of the top bullpen trade candidates this summer. Obviously, an extension in advance of next Tuesday’s trade deadline would take him off the market.

Hicks, 27 in September, is amidst one of the better seasons of his career. He owns a 3.67 ERA across 41 2/3 innings in 40 appearances. He’s striking hitters out at a personal-best 31.2% rate while inducing grounders on a huge 58.2% of batted balls. Hicks and Twins’ star Jhoan Durán are the only relievers (minimum 30 innings) with a strikeout rate north of 30% and a ground-ball rate exceeding 55%.

That outlier combination of whiffs and grounders is built on velocity almost unmatched around the league. Hicks averages an eye-popping 100.5 MPH on the sinker that serves as his go-to offering. Only Durán and Aroldis Chapman throw harder.

Hicks hasn’t found the same level of success that Durán and Chapman have managed at their best, however. The St. Louis hurler has allowed just under four earned runs per nine innings over 219 1/3 career frames. That’s mostly a reflection of well below-average control. He’s walking just under 13% of opponents this season and has dished out free passes at a 13.2% clip for his career.

Various health concerns also undercut him for a while after a promising debut. Hicks combined for just 38 2/3 innings between 2019-21. He underwent Tommy John surgery midway through the ’19 season. Unlikely to return until the tail end of 2020 regardless, Hicks (who has Type 1 diabetes) opted out of playing that year because of COVID-19 concerns. He battled renewed elbow discomfort the next season and was limited to just 10 appearances. He missed a month between May and June last year because of a flexor issue in his forearm but has avoided the injured list this season.

Even with the health history and bouts of wildness, Hicks would be a sensible trade target for contenders seeking bullpen help. He’s a high-octane arm who has stepped back into a high-leverage role for St. Louis, picking up eight saves and six holds. The Cards clearly value him enough to consider keeping him around beyond this season, though it remains to be seen if a deal will get across the finish line. Woo unsurprisingly notes that the 45-56 club would very likely trade Hicks if they don’t reach an extension in the coming days.

To be clear, the dialogue with Hicks’ camp is not a sign that St. Louis is walking back its forthcoming sell off. Woo reiterates that the Cards plan to trade Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty, as ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote this morning. The Cardinals had not had any extension dialogue with Montgomery’s or Flaherty’s camps before the All-Star Break, Woo writes. Both starters are impending free agents.

Montgomery would be a lock to receive and reject a qualifying offer, so the Cards could at least ensure a compensatory draft choice if he departs as a free agent. They’re likely to receive a more compelling prospect package for one of the top starters available within the next few days, though. Flaherty is less likely to receive the QO (which Hicks also wouldn’t get), so the Cards likely wouldn’t get any compensation if those players were neither traded nor extended.

Additionally, Woo reports that the Cardinals are finding trade interest in each of Chris Stratton, Giovanny Gallegos and Ryan Helsley. Stratton is an obvious trade candidate as an impending free agent middle reliever. There’s less urgency to move the latter two arms, as both can stick around beyond this season. Gallegos is under contract for $5.5MM next year, while his deal has a $6.5MM club option for 2025. Helsley is eligible for arbitration through the ’25 season and making a modest $2.15MM this season.

It’s sensible for St. Louis to at least consider offers, although it’d be an odd time to move Helsley. Gallegos has had a sub-4.00 ERA in each of the past five seasons. He carries a 3.92 mark with slightly above-average strikeout and walk numbers in 41 1/3 innings this year.

Helsley, owner of a fastball that sits in the upper 90s, has a 3.20 ERA with a 32% strikeout percentage in 25 frames on the season. He’s been down since June 12 with a forearm strain and was just transferred to the 60-day injured list yesterday, officially ruling him out into the second week of August. Players on the IL can still be traded, so a deal is possible. Still, it stands to reason other clubs will be wary of offering a prospect package commensurate with Helsley’s peak value at a time when there’s notable health uncertainty.

Cardinals Expect To Move DeJong, Several Pitchers; O’Neill Unlikely To Be Traded

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The Cardinals’ logjam in the outfield has been well-documented by now, but one path to alleviating that situation apparently isn’t under consideration at this time; Katie Woo of The Athletic reports that the Cardinals plan to hold onto O’Neill at this year’s deadline.

Elsewhere on the roster, the Cards have made clear to other clubs that they expect to trade starters Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty as well as shortstop Paul DeJong, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports. Passan adds Jordan Hicks as a possible trade candidate, and it’s only natural that righty Chris Stratton — another potential free agent — would also be on the block.

Moving the 28-year-old O’Neill at this stage would unequivocally be selling low. The two-time Gold Glove winner and eighth-place finisher in 2021 NL MVP voting has played in just 130 games since Opening Day 2022, batting a paltry (by his standards) .229/.309/.381 in 502 plate appearances along the way. It’s a far cry from O’Neill’s mammoth .286/.352/.560 batting line and 34 homers in 2021.

The Cards control O’Neill through the 2024 season, as he’ll be arbitration-eligible for the final time this offseason. Woo quotes both O’Neill and manager Oli Marmol in a piece that Cards fans, in particular, will want to read. Broadly speaking, the organization believes an emphasis on routine and collaborative communication can help O’Neill remain on the field more regularly (though that makes the decision to buck his routine by placing him in center field early in the season seem particularly curious).

O’Neill is one of several outfielders vying for playing time in St. Louis. Lars Nootbaar has become entrenched in center field, and top prospect Jordan Walker is currently patrolling right field. O’Neill’s return pushed former top prospect Dylan Carlson to a bench role, and there’s been ample reporting and speculation on the possibility of a Carlson trade looming on the horizon. First baseman/outfielder and utilitymen extraordinaire Brendan Donovan and Tommy Edman also factor into the outfield mix — at times being pushed there by Nolan Gorman’s presence at second base.

The Cards would also be selling low on Carlson in many ways, though the 24-year-old switch-hitter’s remaining three seasons of club control beyond the current year give him more appeal than O’Neill’s one remaining year. Carlson’s ability to play all three outfield spots — center field, in particular — at a high level could also increase the chances of landing direly needed controllable pitching in a trade. O’Neill certainly isn’t likely to command that type of return on the heels of two injury-plagued seasons; he only just returned from a 60-day IL stint thanks to a back strain.

The likely trades of Montgomery and Flaherty have been discussed ad nauseum by now. Both are free agents at season’s end. Montgomery is the more valuable arm at present, touting a 3.37 ERA, 21.7% strikeout rate, 6.4% walk rate and 45.2% grounder rate in 115 innings. He’d be a veritable lock to receive and reject a qualifying offer, so the Cardinals figure to insist on greater value than a 2024 compensatory pick in return. He’s being $10.01MM in 2023.

Flaherty looked like a burgeoning ace in 2019 but has seen several recent seasons ruined by injury. He’s been healthy in ’23, pitching 104 2/3 innings of 4.49 ERA ball. His 22.2% strikeout rate is roughly average, but his 11.3% walk rate is a glaring red flag. He’s three years younger than Montgomery and earning roughly half the salary ($5.4MM) in 2023, however.

DeJong’s status as a likely trade target registers as a clear bonus for the Cards. Entering the season, he didn’t even appear like a lock to make the roster, having slashed just .182/.269/.352 in 190 games from 2021-22. But DeJong has enjoyed a rebound season in ’23, hitting .237/.304/.424 (101 wRC+) with his typical brand of plus defense. With about $3.29MM remaining on his contract (plus a $2MM buyout on next year’s $12.5MM option), DeJong now seems affordable and productive enough to be a viable trade candidate — particularly if the Cardinals help out financially in any sense. DeJong’s bat has cooled after a torrid start, but his overall batting line is about league average, he’s shown some power and he’s played good defense.

Both Hicks and Stratton are natural trade candidates, too. Hicks is likely more appealing and costlier to acquire, given his youth and triple-digit heater. The 26-year-old is averaging better than 100 mph on his sinker and has a 1.88 ERA dating back to early May, punching out batters at a gaudy 31.4% of his hitters with an 8.5% walk rate and mammoth 66.7% grounder rate. Stratton, 33 next month, has a 4.38 ERA with better peripheral marks (27% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate, 3.01 FIP, 3.37 SIERA).

In any trade, St. Louis is eyeing near-MLB-ready pitching, Passan adds. That, again, is hardly a surprise and has long been speculated upon, given the team’s lack of rotation clarity beyond the current season. Both Montgomery and Flaherty are free agents. Adam Wainwright is retiring. Steven Matz and Matthew Liberatore have struggled.

Many of the names in question wouldn’t fetch a close-to-the-Majors arm in a straight-up swap, but someone like DeJong or Stratton could potentially be packaged with Flaherty or Hicks to improve the Cards’ return. Either Montgomery or certainly Carlson on his own could feasibly fetch immediate but unproven pitching help — Montgomery’s status as a rental notwithstanding. For instance, the Cards themselves traded away a big league-ready arm last summer when they shipped Johan Oviedo to the division-rival Pirates in order to acquire Stratton and Jose Quintana, who was then a rental player. Oviedo has struggled in July but notched a 4.06 ERA through his first 16 starts and is controllable through the 2027 season.

Mozeliak Discusses Cardinals’ Deadline, Rotation, Outfield

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The Cardinals approach the trade deadline in an unfamiliar position as sellers. Sitting 12 games under .500 and in last place in the NL Central, St. Louis joins the Rockies, Nationals and Pirates as the only National League clubs at least 10 games out of a playoff spot.

President of baseball operations John Mozeliak admitted last week the Cards were turning their attention towards 2024. He expanded upon that in a wide-ranging conversation with the St. Louis beat this afternoon (YouTube link via Charlie Marlow of 590 The Fan). Cards’ fans will want to check out the complete media session.

Mozeliak conceded there wasn’t much hope of avoiding a sell-off of short-term pieces at this stage of the season. “Does performance (over the next two weeks) change our direction? Probably not at this point. Where we are in the standings, it’s going to make it very difficult to change that.” He left open the possibility of something like an eight-game win streak altering the equation but it’s clear the front office anticipates parting with a number of veteran players over the next couple weeks.

The front office leader restated they’re prioritizing trade targets who could help the big league team in the near future. Mozeliak indicated they’d look for players who’d be MLB factors by 2024-25 and was rather blunt about their positional desires.

“We’re going to treat the trading deadline as ’pitching, pitching, pitching,'” he said. “That’s not to say we’re going to ignore a position player that may be uber-great … but the goal would be to address as much pitching as possible.”

It isn’t hard to understand why. The rotation has been St. Louis’ biggest problem area. Cardinals’ starters entered play Monday ranked 25th in MLB with a 4.64 ERA. That’s obviously insufficient to begin with and it’s only likely to thin out over the next few weeks. Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty are impending free agents who both seem likely to change uniforms by August 1. Adam Wainwright isn’t a trade candidate but he’s retiring at season’s end.

That’s three vacancies arising before 2024. Only Miles Mikolas seems a lock for next year’s season-opening rotation. Steven Matz is under contract for two more seasons but has bounced between the starting staff and the bullpen this year. Matthew Liberatore has been tagged for a 6.39 ERA over eight MLB starts. Righty Jake Woodford wasn’t much more effective in an early-season rotation look. Former first round draftee Zack Thompson could compete for a ’24 rotation spot but has one MLB start to his name.

While St. Louis will scour the trade market for upper level starting pitching, they’ll also have to dip into free agency next winter. Mozeliak conceded it’d be nearly impossible to envision the Cards not adding a free agent starter and indicated the organization should have enough financial flexibility to attack the open market.

Interestingly, he indicated the organization’s approach to pitching acquisition could be a little different moving forward. St. Louis has prioritized ground-ball pitchers in recent seasons, relying on an excellent infield defense to support a pitch-to-contact staff. That hasn’t worked this year. St. Louis has allowed an MLB-worst .324 batting average on grounders. That’s a huge change from seasons past, one Mozeliak admitted could impact the way the front office approaches things.

The team is likely to prioritize “more swing-and-miss versus ground-ball types,” he said. Only the Rockies and Royals have gotten a lower strikeout rate out of their rotation than St. Louis’ 18.4% clip. The bullpen has been more effective, ranking 12th with a 24.5% strikeout percentage.

A few members of the relief corps are also likely to be on the way out. The Cards already designated lefty Génesis Cabrera for assignment this morning. Mozeliak called that a “change of scenery” decision, noting that Cabrera is hopeful of landing a higher-leverage role than the one he’d received in St. Louis. Jordan Hicks and Chris Stratton seem likely to be dealt strictly because of their contractual situations. Both are impending free agents and having quality seasons, with the flamethrowing Hicks standing out as a particularly desirable rental trade chip.

There aren’t any true rentals on the position player side, although the Cards seem likely to opt for a $1MM buyout over a $12.5MM club option on shortstop Paul DeJong. A middle infield logjam also comprising Tommy Edman, Brendan Donovan, Nolan Gorman and eventually top prospect Masyn Winn makes a DeJong trade seem likely.

Left fielder Tyler O’Neill has seemed a potential trade candidate amidst a season decimated by back issues. Mozeliak didn’t expressly rule that out but seemed to cast some doubt on that possibility today, saying the Cardinals anticipated playing O’Neill as their everyday left fielder. He has been on the injured list since May 4 but could be reinstated before tomorrow’s game against Miami.

O’Neill is playing this season on a $4.95MM salary. The club can retain him for one more season via arbitration. St. Louis has enough outfield depth that O’Neill could be a non-tender candidate next winter, though it’s also possible they deal another outfielder to clear space. Star rookie Jordan Walker isn’t going anywhere, and Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch wrote last week the Cards were telling other clubs they had no intention of moving Lars Nootbaar.

That arguably leaves Dylan Carlson as an odd man out. The former top prospect is hitting .243/.350/.376 over 203 trips to the plate. He reaches arbitration for the first time next winter and isn’t eligible for free agency until after the 2026 campaign. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com indicated this evening (on Twitter) the Yankees could have some interest in Carlson as they search for outfield help.

Of course, there are no bigger names the Cardinals could put on the trade market than their star corner infield tandem of Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado. Mozeliak declined to declare either player categorically untouchable but strongly downplayed the possibility of moving either. “I don’t have any intentions of trading anybody like them,” he said. “If you’re willing to listen on anything, you have to understand (anything’s possible), but I doubt that would happen.” As he subsequently noted, both players have full no-trade rights, and it seems very unlikely a St. Louis team gearing back up for 2024 would want to part with either of its top two position players regardless.

Cardinals Interested In Logan Gilbert

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The Cardinals are coming out of the All-Star break with a 38-52 record, placing them in last place in the National League Central and 11 games back in the Wild Card race. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak recently admitted that the club will have to approach the deadline as sellers, focusing on making moves that benefit the 2024 club.

The club has just over two weeks until the August 1 deadline, giving them some time to figure out their plans, but Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch has a report with some specifics that shine a light on their current plans. Notably, the Cards are uninterested in trading core players like Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt, Lars Nootbaar and Jordan Walker. They are open, however, to trading pitchers like Jordan Montgomery, Jordan Hicks, Ryan Helsley and Génesis Cabrera, while Jack Flaherty is already generating interest from other clubs. As for what kind of player they are looking to bring in, Goold lists Logan Gilbert of the Mariners as someone they are interested in.

To be clear, there’s no indication that the Mariners have any inclination towards trading Gilbert, but it’s entirely understandable why the Cards would be interested. The 26-year-old Gilbert has made 74 starts to this point in his career, posting a 3.75 ERA with a 24% strikeout rate, 5.7% walk rate and 36.9% ground ball rate. He’s right in line with those figures this year, having a 3.66 ERA with similar peripherals in 18 starts.

More importantly for the Cardinals, Gilbert can be immediately plugged into their rotation and has plenty of club control remaining. He came into this season with one year and 144 days of service time and will finish this season at 2.144. That makes him a virtual lock to qualify for arbitration as a Super Two player this winter, but he will still have four years of club control left, meaning he isn’t slated to become a free agent until after the 2027 season.

The Cards are not planning a deep rebuild but are instead focused on next year’s club, when they have plenty of rotation uncertainty. Adam Wainwright is planning to retire after this year, while both Flaherty and Montgomery are impending free agents. They have also seen some internal options struggle this year. Steven Matz had an ERA of 5.72 through 10 starts before getting bumped to the bullpen, though he recently retook a rotation job after some solid relief work. Matthew Liberatore has decent numbers in Triple-A but a 6.75 ERA in the majors this year. Dakota Hudson has spent most of the year in Triple-A, posting an ERA of 6.00 at that level. All of that leaves Miles Mikolas as the only sure thing for next year’s rotation.

But Seattle wouldn’t give up Gilbert easily. The club is 45-44 right now and just four games out in the American League Wild Card race. Gilbert is a key part of their rotation right now and for future seasons, given his aforementioned years of control. If they were to give any thought to moving him, they would likely have to get back something that helps some other part of their roster in the here and now. They also have Luis Castillo, George Kirby and Bryan Woo in their rotation alongside Gilbert, but Robbie Ray is out of the season while Bryce Miller and Marco Gonzales are currently on the injured list. Subtracting Gilbert from that mix would to be weighed against the benefits of an upgrade elsewhere.

The Mariners have tried to do a buy-sell hybrid before, which was in 2021. They flipped relievers Kendall Graveman and Rafael Montero to the Astros in exchange for Joe Smith and Abraham Toro, while picking up Diego Castillo and Tyler Anderson in separate deals. The move didn’t work out, with the clubhouse apparently not thrilled by the closer suddenly pitching for a divisional rival and the M’s ultimately missing the playoffs.

This year’s trade deadline is generally considered to have a lack of sellers that may force clubs to consider trades between contenders, with each club giving up current major league talent, such as last year’s deal where the Cards got Montgomery from the Yankees for Harrison Bader. A Gilbert trade would be a significantly different beast though, since Montgomery and Bader each had just a season and a half of club control remaining at the time. When factoring in Gilbert’s extra control and the fact that the M’s just got burned on the hybrid deadline strategy not too long ago, it’s hard to view a trade coming together as a likely scenario.

Nonetheless, the interest from the Cardinals is instructive as to what their targets might be. They have a crowded position player mix and may perhaps look to swap someone from that group for some controllable pitching, even if it’s not Gilbert. It remains to be seen which players they are willing to put on the table in such a pursuit, but it seems they’ll hang onto Arenado, Goldschmidt, Nootbaar and Walker.

It’s not a terrible shock to see those names listed as off-limits. Goldschmidt and Arenado are the two most important players on the club, finishing first and third respectively in National League MVP voting last year. Both players also have full no-trade clauses, which would make a deal complicated even if the Cardinals wanted to consider it. The players could always waive their clauses but Goold reports that Arenado has not been approached about doing so and would prefer to stay anyway. There’s been no reporting to suggest that anything is different with Goldschmidt.

Walker was one of the top prospects in the league coming into this year and is faring well in his first season, hitting .283/.347/.457 for a 123 wRC+ thus far. He made the club’s Opening Day roster but was optioned for over a month at one point, meaning he’ll come up shy of one year of major league service here in 2023 and leave the Cards with six further seasons of control. As a consensus top prospect, he could earn that full year by finishing in the top two of Rookie of the Year voting, but he would still be a key part of the club’s future even in that scenario.

Nootbaar, meanwhile, has hit .241/.343/.420 in 226 career games while providing above-average outfield defense. He will still have four years of control remaining after this one and isn’t slated to qualify for arbitration until after 2024.

Just because those names are listed as unavailable, it doesn’t necessarily mean that anyone not named is therefore available, but the club will likely have to move someone. Tyler O’Neill has often been speculated as a candidate since the club has Nootbaar, Walker, Dylan Carlson and others in the outfield mix. On the infield, meanwhile, Tommy Edman and Brendan Donovan have somewhat similar multi-positional profiles and have been pushed to the grass with Paul DeJong and Nolan Gorman often in the middle infield. If the Cards have their sights set on an impact rotation addition like Gilbert or someone similar, they might have to make the difficult decision of parting with someone in that group.

Though that situation seems fluid and has many factors, the rental pitching seems much more straightforward. Each of Montgomery, Flaherty and Hicks are impending free agents and seem virtual locks to be moved at this point. Montgomery is a consistent mid-rotation guy, with a 3.75 career ERA and a 3.23 mark here in 2023. He’s making $10MM this year, which will leave about $3.22MM left to be paid out at the deadline.

Flaherty has shown ace upside in the past but was held back by injuries in recent years. He’s not back to those ace levels this year, currently sporting a 4.27 ERA, but he’s at least healthy and effective enough for a rotation job. Hicks, meanwhile, has triple-digit velocity and seems to be finally figuring out how to weaponize it properly.

Helsley and Cabrera aren’t strict rentals and don’t need to be moved at this deadline, necessarily. But given the volatility of relief performance, it’s logical for the Cardinals to consider what kind of return they can get right now. Helsley seemed to take over the closer’s role last year, posting a 1.25 ERA and racking up 19 saves in the process. He has a 3.24 ERA this year but has been on the injured list for the past month due to a strained right forearm. Players on the IL can be traded but his health status might cast a shadow over trade talks. He can be controlled for two more seasons after this one via arbitration. He’s making $2.15MM and will have about $700K left to be paid out when the deadline rolls around.

Cabrera, 26, has been inconsistent in terms of his strikeouts but has always had subpar control. Regardless, left-handed relief tends to always be in demand to some degree. He has a 4.07 ERA in his career but a 4.70 mark this year. He’s struck out 25.7% of opponents this season but walked 13.2%. Like Helsley, he can be retained via arbitration for two more campaigns after this one. He’s making $950K this year, which will leave just over $300K at deadline time.

All in all, there are many moving parts for the Cardinals to consider, making them one of the most interesting clubs to watch in the coming weeks. They haven’t been in the clear seller position in a while, but they seem well-positioned to take advantage of it. Few clubs are in the same category and many of the other clear sellers have far less to offer in terms of players that would be of interest for contending clubs.

The Well-Timed Breakout Of Jordan Hicks

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Not a lot has gone right for the Cardinals this year. They came into the season with a talented roster and hopes of contention but have repeatedly struggled to get into a groove. Their record sits at 38-52, placing them 11.5 games back in the National League Central and 11 games back in the Wild Card race. They don’t often find themselves as clear deadline sellers, having only once finished below .500 this century, which was way back in 2007. But barring a massive turnaround in the next three weeks, they will likely be selling this year, something that president of baseball operations John Mozeliak essentially admitted earlier today.

Thankfully, there are some factors that could make this a particularly fruitful sell-off for the Cards. For one thing, the expanded playoffs and some wide-open divisional races are seemingly making this year a seller’s market. The Cards have a number of controllable position players they could move without significantly hurting their chances of returning to contention next year. They also have some impending free agents of note, such as Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty.

Another impending free agent who should be garnering plenty of interest is reliever Jordan Hicks. The fireballer has been in the club’s bullpen since 2018, though Tommy John surgery in June 2019 prevented him from appearing in the latter half of that campaign or at any point in 2020.

His performance in his career has been unusual in that he has elite velocity, averaging over 100 mph on his fastball in his career. But somehow, that hasn’t translated into the huge strikeout numbers one would expect. By the end of the 2022 season, he had tossed 177 2/3 innings over 147 outings, striking out 23% of batters faced. That strikeout rate is right around league average, whereas other gas-spewing pitchers like Aroldis Chapman, Edwin Díaz or Félix Bautista often run their rates into the 40s or even the 50s.

Here in 2023, Hicks seems to have finally unlocked a new level in that department. He’s thrown 36 2/3 innings over 36 outings, punching out 32.9% of batters faced. His 13.8% walk rate is still on the high side but that’s right in line with his previous work and not too dissimilar from other late-inning arms. Chapman has walked 12.4% of batters faced in his career. Josh Hader is at 10.2% in his career and 11.3% since the start of 2020. Hicks is getting fewer ground balls than in previous seasons but his 53.5% rate this year is still well above league average.

The new strikeout rate has helped to lower his ERA to 3.93, compared to 4.84 last year and 5.40 the year before. He likely deserves even better, as his .357 batting average on balls in play is above league average and above his marks in previous seasons. His 3.47 SIERA and 3.12 FIP suggest he could get even better results if that BABIP normalizes going forward. He’s also produced these results while ascending into the closer’s role with Ryan Helsley on the injured list, with Hicks racking up seven saves in the past four weeks.

One thing that might be fuelling this breakout is a change in his pitch mix. He has primarily been a sinker-slider guy in his career, with 90% of his offerings being one of those two pitches, while also occasionally mixing in changeups, cutters and four-seam fastballs. According to Statcast, Hicks had thrown only 20 four-seamers prior to his surgery and then just nine over the past two seasons. He has thrown 73 of them this year. He’s also added a sweeper, throwing 150 of those this year, with opponents batting just .107 and slugging just .250 in plate appearances ending with that offering. The sweeper seems to pair well with his sinker/two-seamer, as shown in this tweet from Rob Friedman, aka the Pitching Ninja.

This is still just a few months of results we’re talking about, but the change in repertoire seems to point to a legitimate progression as opposed to just small sample noise. The Cardinals would surely have preferred to be in contention right now, using this new and improved version of Hicks to bolster their chances in a postseason race. But they will at least have the opportunity to squeeze some extra future value out of it via trade prior to the upcoming deadline. If he had discovered this new level of performance next year instead, they may not have benefited from it at all.

The timing is also potentially significant for Hicks personally, allowing him to go into the open market with a strong platform season if he can maintain it for the next few months. He cracked the Cardinals’ Opening Day roster in 2018 when he was just 21 years old and has never been optioned, putting him on pace to finish this season with exactly six seasons of service time and thus qualify for free agency just after he turns 27 years old in September. Relief pitchers don’t usually secure very long deals in free agency. No one has ever topped five years and contracts of that length are quite rare.

Some clubs may be skeptical given that he has a longer track record of being just okay and will have a much smaller span of time with the improvements. But we have seen clubs take significant gambles on pitchers based on limited samples before. Drew Pomeranz was a starter for much of his career but transitioned into more of a relief role in 2018 and 2019 before getting a four-year, $34MM deal from the Padres. It was a similar story for Liam Hendriks, who had been closing for two years, one of which was the shortened 2020 season, before landing a $54MM guarantee over three years from the White Sox. Robert Suarez spent most of his career in Japan before parlaying one strong MLB season into $46MM over five years.

That’s not to say that Hicks is a lock to secure a contract similar to those, especially since few of those deals have worked out well for the signing clubs, which may lead to more hesitancy in the relief market this offseason. But clubs have shown they are willing to bet on a small sample of improved results when they have reason to believe it could be carried forward. Those three pitchers were all in their early 30s when they secured their deals, whereas Hicks will be significantly younger.

Hicks has always had the velocity and now seems to be figuring out how it deploy it in a more effective way than he ever has before. With his quick rise through the minor leagues and time missed due to his surgery, he’ll be hitting the open market at an usually young age for a relief pitcher and with very few total innings on his arm. For now, he should be able to help the Cardinals recoup some extra value at the deadline before helping himself cash in this winter.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Central Notes: Cabrera, Hicks, Alzolay

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Tigers veteran Miguel Cabrera will turn 40 years old in April, shortly after beginning the final guaranteed season of the mega extension he signed back in 2014. Though he’s not quite the hitter he was back then, he’s still going to be a part of Detroit’s plans next season. “We expect Miggy to be here,” manager A.J. Hinch tells Chris McCosky of The Detroit News. “We expect him to do his part in the offseason to prepare himself to be healthy and be productive and be the icon that he is.”

As noted by McCosky, Cabrera’s 2022 got off to a nice start, as he kept his batting average above .300 into July. However, he has slumped badly since then while dealing with various nagging injuries, currently sitting on a batting line of .251/.299/.315 for the year. That production amounts to a wRC+ of 76, or 24% below league average, which is well below Cabrera’s previous low of 92 from 2017.

Going into the season, it seemed as though Cabrera was on the verge of being nudged out of the club’s plans, as they spent aggressively in the offseason to try to compete in 2022. With the promotion of first base prospect Spencer Torkelson, it was fair to wonder if an awkward situation was approaching with the club trying to compete and Miggy standing in the way. Instead, Torkelson and the Tigers both fell way shy of expectations, with the youngster hitting just .197/.281/.301 so far this year and club sporting a record of 64-93.

The fact that Cabrera is still owed $32MM next year doesn’t mean he is immune from being cut from the team if he continues to underperform. Just last year, the Angels designated Albert Pujols for assignment in May while he was playing out the final year of his contract at a $30MM salary. Both Hinch and new president of baseball operations Scott Harris voiced their support for Cabrera being a part of the 2023 club, though how much of a role he gets to play is likely to be determined.

Some more notes from the Central divisions…

  • The Cardinals are planning to reinstate right-hander Jordan Hicks from the injured list for their final regular season series, which begins tomorrow in Pittsburgh, according to MLB.com. Hicks went on the IL on September 17, retroactive to September 15, due to right arm fatigue. He has long tantalized fans with his triple-digit velocity but also been frequently set back by command issues and injuries. This season, he’s made 34 appearances and has a 4.92 ERA, 24.4% strikeout rate, 57.5% ground ball rate but a 13.6% walk rate. The Cards have already clinched the NL Central and can use their final games to assess the condition of Hicks’s arm before they begin a series against whichever team winds up in the final Wild Card spot.
  • Cubs right-hander Adbert Alzolay seemed to be a potential rotation building block last year, appearing in 26 games with 21 of those being starts, logging 125 2/3 innings with a 4.58 ERA. However, this year, a shoulder strain landed him on the injured list to begin the season and he only made his season debut a couple of weeks ago. This mostly lost season has resulted in several pitchers surpassing him on the depth chart and perhaps leading to a move to the bullpen. Alzolay discussed this possibility with Patrick Mooney of The Athletic and seems fine with it. “If my role is best out of the bullpen, being a long guy, being a guy that can throw in the eighth or close a game or whatever, I feel like I have the weapons to do that,” Alzolay says. “You won’t have me every five days there, but you can have me every two or three days. I can go and throw three or four innings, or I can go and throw one inning late in the game. So I feel like there are a lot more options there, and then that allows the team to go and be aggressive during the offseason.” The Cubs’ 2023 rotation will likely consist of Marcus Stroman, Kyle Hendricks and Justin Steele, with Keegan Thompson, Hayden Wesneski, Javier Assad, Adrian Sampson and Caleb Kilian having put themselves into consideration to varying degrees. With all of those options, and perhaps some offseason additions, it makes sense for Alzolay and the team to consider new ways for him to be a contributing member of the staff.
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