Marcus Semien

Dipoto: Mariners Prioritizing “Adaptable” Free Agents

By Steve Adams | October 22, 2021 at 3:45pm CDT

After spending the past couple seasons primarily in rebuilding mode, the Mariners enter the 2021-22 offseason with heightened expectations. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has already spoken about looking to add to his roster on the heels of a 90-win season, specifically citing a desire to deepen his lineup and add an infielder. ESPN’s Buster Olney recently explored the manner in which the Mariners are a good fit for many of the top-ranked shortstops in this year’s free-agent market, where Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Javier Baez and Trevor Story will all be available. Corey Brock of The Athletic took a similar look at the Mariners’ offseason, speculating that Semien would be a strong fit for what the Mariners seek.

As one would expect, the increased expectations and early speculation have generated some buzz in Seattle — enough that 710 ESPN’s Mike Salk directly asked Dipoto about the possibility of adding a marquee shortstop the mix (Twitter link, with audio). While Dipoto spoke with an open-mind, however, he also gave a substantial vote of confidence to incumbent J.P. Crawford, who took home a 2020 Gold Glove Award at shortstop and had a fine all-around season in 2021.

“One of the key elements is we have a shortstop that we love,” Dipoto said in reference to Crawford. “J.P. is our shortstop, and we feel like he is an anchor on our infield and an emotional leader for our team. So, one of the things that’s important to us is finding a player who is adaptable and willing to move around the field and maybe get a little uncomfortable.”

Interestingly, Dipoto specifically mentioned both Baez and Semien when pointing out that some of the offseason shortstop crop has done that throughout their careers already. Baez played plenty of second and third early in his career and recently slid back to second base for the final two months of the season in Queens, where Francisco Lindor was entrenched at shortstop. Semien played multiple positions early in his career before settling in as the Athletics’ primary shortstop. He shifted to second base in a full-time capacity this season and posted elite defensive marks as shortstop Bo Bichette’s double-play partner.

It’s a bit unusual to see a top-ranking baseball operations executive name-check any free agents in this manner, although Dipoto’s comments still hardly guarantee that either Semien or Baez will land in Seattle (or that the Mariners will aggressively pursue either player). Similarly, his mention of Baez and Semien doesn’t preclude the M’s from pursuing one of the market’s other high-end shortstops (Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Trevor Story). And if the Mariners are indeed looking for versatile fielders willing to play a variety of positions, the market has two quality hitters well known for their defensive versatility: old friend Chris Taylor and longtime Cubs star Kris Bryant.

Dipoto calls “that kind of selflessness” a “big deal” for the Mariners as they parse the offseason free-agent market. Another key element for the Mariners will be players with postseason experience, per Dipoto, who plainly acknowledges that to be an element he’ll seek as he looks to augment his young core with veterans. “We know where we want to go, and the more we can add players who’ve been there, the better off we are,” he said.

The Mariners have some option decisions looming — most notably a $20MM club option on Kyle Seager and a $13MM player option for Yusei Kikuchi — but at present they project to have just shy of $60MM on the books. Regardless of what happens with Kikuchi and their longtime third baseman, Seager, the Mariners will be miles shy of their franchise-record $157.9MM payroll. It’s not reasonable to assume a full-throttle sprint back up to or even beyond that record level, but the Mariners also ought to have the payroll capacity to approach the offseason with a wide-open slate of possibilities.

Free Agent Notes: Shortstops, Belt, Seager, Hernandez

By Mark Polishuk | October 20, 2021 at 12:01pm CDT

After asking 11 rival evaluators to rate the offseason’s top five free agent shortstops on a 1-5 grading scale, ESPN’s Buster Olney reveals the final order was Corey Seager, Carlos Correa, Marcus Semien, Trevor Story, and Javier Baez, with Seager claiming 50 of a possible 55 points. Seager received six of the first-place votes (Correa received four and Semien one) due to his age and big left-handed bat, even though there was some question about his durability and how long he’ll be able to remain at the shortstop position.

All five players carry their share of question marks, which is what will make the shortstop market so fascinating to observe as the many teams in need of shortstop (and overall infield) help will be competing for these names at the top of the market. Unsurprisingly, the 11 evaluators cite the Yankees and Tigers as likely to land one of the big five shortstops, and teams like the Mariners, Rangers, Phillies, Cubs, and Angels could all be in the mix. In an additional detail on Semien, there is some feeling that he would like to remain with the Blue Jays, while other evaluators believe the Bay Area native would prefer to play with a team closer to home.

More on other pending or possible free agents…

Brandon Belt and the Giants had some in-season negotiations about a contract extension, and while “talks didn’t go anywhere,” NBC Bay Area’s Alex Pavlovic feels there is enough mutual interest between the two sides that Belt will return to San Francisco in 2022 and beyond. Though Belt turns 34 in April and battled multiple injuries, he has also been hitting at the highest level of his career — Belt has hit .285/.393/.595 with 38 home runs over 560 plate appearances since the start of the 2020 season. The Giants have already worked out an extension with the other member of “the Brandons,” locking up Brandon Crawford to a new two-year deal back in August.
“The ship has sailed” on Kyle Seager returning to the Mariners, The Athletic’s Corey Brock opines as part of a reader mailbag. Brock feels both the team and the veteran third baseman are ready to move on, seemingly precluding any chance of either the M’s exercising their $20MM club option on Seager for 2022, or Seager being open to re-signing with Seattle at a lower price. Seager seemed to hint at a departure a few weeks ago, when he said that he hadn’t heard anything from the team about the option, and also noted that he hadn’t personally spoken with GM Jerry DiPoto in several years.
Speaking of contract options, The Athletic’s James Fegan predicts the White Sox will decline their $6MM club option on Cesar Hernandez for next season. Hernandez hit only .232/.309/.299 in 217 PA after being acquired from Cleveland at the trade deadline, so Fegan believes the Sox will be looking to upgrade at the keystone, rather than just retain Hernandez or hand the position to some combination of Leury Garcia, Danny Mendick or Romy Gonzalez. More offensive production will of course be welcome, but the White Sox might also prioritize a strong second base glove as a way of improving the club’s run-prevention efforts.

Cashman Discusses Yankees’ Offseason, Provides Injury Updates

By James Hicks | October 19, 2021 at 2:27pm CDT

During the press conference announcing the return of Aaron Boone as manager, Yankees GM Brian Cashman offered some insight into the club’s offseason plans. Cashman was open with regard to the Yankees’ needs, telling reporters he’ll need to offer Boone more flexibility in lineup construction (Twitter links via The Athletic’s Lindsey Adler).

Most notably, the GM addressed the club’s need at shortstop directly and candidly, stating that “[s]hortstop is an area of need. We have to address it.” With one of the most highly regarded classes of shortstops in free agent history about to hit the market, the big-market, big-spending Yankees are a near certainty to feature prominently in the offseason rumor mill.

As MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand and ESPN’s Marly Rivera further noted, Cashman broke several pieces of news on the injury front: starter Jameson Taillon will undergo ankle surgery on October 28 and is expected to be out for five months. DJ LeMahieu, who underperformed expectations after a stellar 2020, has had a procedure to address a sports hernia that will keep him out roughly eight weeks. Cashman also noted that outfielder Aaron Hicks, out since a May wrist surgery, should be ready to resume baseball activities by December and hopes to play winter ball. Assuming all goes to plan, LeMahieu’s surgery shouldn’t have an impact on his availability to start the 2022 season, but Taillon’s timetable suggests he’ll only be ready to return to game action around the end of Spring Training, putting his availability for the Opening Day roster in question.

While Cashman suggested that he hopes to add more athleticism and contact skills to a lineup that had the sixth highest K% (24.5%) in the majors in 2021, Yankees fans have already begun to salivate over the forthcoming free agent market. All three of Corey Seager, Carlos Correa, and Trevor Story would bring a significant potential for star-level production to the Bronx — as might Marcus Semien or the enigmatic Javier Baez, potentially — and each would offer a significant defensive upgrade over incumbent Gleyber Torres.

Any from that group could represent an upgrade on both sides for the Bombers, but how Cashman views them remains to be seen. Though none are poor with the glove, Correa and Story (who have compiled 68 and 69 career DRS at short, respectively) have been a cut above the others. Correa will be 27 next season, giving him an edge in the age department, although Seager isn’t far behind as he heads into his age-28 campaign. Both Story and Baez will play next year at 29, while Semien — who played second base in Toronto this season but has a long track record at shortstop — will play next season at 31.

Though the Yankees are regularly players at the top of the free agent market, payroll implications may also play into their approach, as might the particulars of the forthcoming collective bargaining agreement (presuming, of course, that one is forthcoming). The club’s payroll came in just below the luxury tax threshold of $210MM in 2021, which may allow them to pay a lower rate should they become tax-payers again in 2022, but the only significant salary to come off the books is Corey Kluber’s ($11MM in 2021).

With a number of players set for significant raises in arbitration (most prominently Aaron Judge, though both club and player may prefer to reach an extension agreement), there’s not likely to be much room below the tax threshold for splashy free agent signings. Owner Hal Steinbrenner has not declared any plans to cross the threshold, but the club probably dipped below in 2021 for a reason. Paired with Cashman’s assertion that the Yankees will be “open to anything and everything” (Twitter link via SNY’s Andy Martino), the stage is at least ostensibly set for an active winter.

Following a season that saw them settle for a wild card spot and get bounced from the playoffs by the rival Red Sox, Cashman’s mixed tone is no surprise. Per Rivera, the longstanding GM described the 2021 Yanks remarkable inconsistency, stating that while they were at times “unstoppable,” they were at others “unwatchable.” As MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch relays, Cashman addressed fan disappointment directly with the “obvious” admonition that “we want more. We expect more.”

Injuries clearly played a role, but poor performance also loomed large. Among players with more than 100 plate appearances, only Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Luke Voit, and Anthony Rizzo (acquired from the Cubs at the deadline) posted a wRC+ over 100 while wearing pinstripes. The club’s pitching fared somewhat better but was also bitten by the injury bug, with only Gerrit Cole, Jordan Montgomery, and Taillon notching 20 or more starts and potential high-end righty Luis Severino logging only six innings across four appearances as he made his way back from February 2020 Tommy John surgery. With Kluber out and Taillon a question mark, the club will likely look to dip into the pitching market for at least a depth piece or two.

How, exactly, Cashman will address these shortcomings remains an open question, but he did offer some insight into other offseason plans in the Bronx, including making clear that the club views Torres as a second baseman moving forward and is not entirely committed to Gary Sánchez as its everyday catcher.

Both players were disappointments in 2021. Torres posted a .259/.331/.366 line (down from career marks of .271/.340/.493 entering the year) and was eventually moved from shortstop to second basse. Sánchez regained some of the pop (23 home runs in 440 plate appearances) he’d shown from 2016-2019 alongside a career-high 52 walks but continued to struggle overall; he posted only a .307 OBP driven by a dismal .204 batting average and 27.5 K%. By DRS, both players also struggled with the glove, with Torres costing the Yankees nine runs in the field and Sánchez ten (while throwing out only 17% of would-be base-stealers).

With Torres permanently moving to the keystone and Rizzo’s future uncertain, LeMahieu will likely serve as the Yankees’ primary third baseman in 2022, perhaps sharing time there with Gio Urshela as well as Voit at first — assuming Voit is back in the next year. With the Yankees looking to add a shortstop to the mix, they’ll be left with four regulars (LeMahieu, Urshela, Voit, and Torres) for the other three infield spots. As none of this group has any significant experience in the outfield, a healthy roster might leave Boone facing something of a logjam for at-bats.

With Severino expected to offer quite a bit more on the mound in 2022, better health from Hicks and Voit and bounceback years from LeMahieu and Torres could already go a long way toward righting the ship for a club used to contending for titles year after year. Addressing their need at shortstop with a high-end signing that improves the team on both sides of the ball may go even further.

AL East Notes: Yankees, Barnes, Harvey

By Mark Polishuk | October 16, 2021 at 10:08pm CDT

If the Yankees pushed for one of the big shortstops in the free agent market, Joel Sherman of The New York Post believes Corey Seager would be the best fit, as his left-handed bat and contact skills would help a mostly right-handed Yankees lineup that contained plenty of swing-and-miss in 2021. Marcus Semien is also a candidate, but Sherman isn’t as bullish on the chances of Carlos Correa, Trevor Story, or Javier Baez ending up in the Bronx. “There seems to have been a steady falling out of love with Story” on the Yankees’ part, Sherman writes, while Baez drew some interest at the trade deadline but perhaps only as a short-term fix. As for Correa, there might still be so much bad blood over the sign-stealing scandal that the Yankees might not want anything to do with a player who was such a prominent member of the 2017 Astros.

This assumes, of course, that New York will actually aim for one of the big names, rather than wait for highly-touted shortstop prospects Anthony Volpe and Oswald Peraza to reach the majors. Seager may also be a good fit in this regard, Sherman opines, as Seager could eventually be moved over to third base. Or, depending on how the new collective bargaining agreement alters business, the Yankees could just opt for a stopgap shortstop as a bridge to Volpe/Peraza and spend resources elsewhere.

Yankees Attempted To Acquire Andrelton Simmons At Trade Deadline

By TC Zencka | October 9, 2021 at 11:11am CDT

Upon first glance, it would be natural to expect the Yankees to be active in exploring this winter’s deep class of free agent shortstops. Once they bit the bullet and officially moved Gleyber Torres off shortstop, their need at the position became explicit. Prospects Anthony Volpe and Oswald Peraza have impressed enough, however, that the Yanks could choose a short-term bridge option as they await further development for their youngsters, suggests Andy Martino of SNY.tv.

Andrelton Simmons might fit the bill as a short-term option. The Yankees tried to acquire Simmons at the trade deadline, Martino notes, and they could be again as a fill-in with defensive upside that might complement Torres’ skill-set up the middle. Yankee fans might dream a little bigger, considering Simmons’ .223/.283/.274 line across 451 plate appearances with the Twins.

Martino also suggests Marcus Semien as a potential short-term option, given his now-proven ability to play second base, should they want to make room for Volpe or Peraza when they’re ready. There figures to be quite a bit more competition for Semien’s services after another MVP-caliber year. The Yankees, of course, have the means to compete with anyone, and they are one of a choice few teams with a clear need at shortstop.

In terms of their potential competition, the Tigers could upgrade shortstop, making Niko Goodrum a super-utility player as they look to turn the page on their rebuild. The Nationals can do the same with Alcides Escobar, and they have some money to spend should they want to an immediate replacement for Trea Turner. The Orioles don’t have a clear long-term solution at short, but they might not be ready to spend significantly in free agency.

There are plenty of other teams that could keep a star shortstop from simply falling in the Yankees’ lap. The Blue Jays will need to replace Semien if they don’t bring him back. The Angels and A’s could both stand to upgrade. Thinking outside the box a little, the Phillies could push for a shortstop, given Didi Gregorius’ down year and their clear desire to compete. There might even be more teams looking for a short-term option like Simmons than there are clubs with surefire intentions to pursue the Correa/Seager/Story/Baez/Semien/Taylor class of free agent. Regardless, the Yankees figure to be players somewhere in the market this winter.

Blue Jays Hopeful Of Retaining Marcus Semien, Robbie Ray

By Mark Polishuk | September 5, 2021 at 5:53pm CDT

Marcus Semien and Robbie Ray have been two of baseball’s best players this season, let alone big reasons why the Blue Jays are still in the hunt for an AL wild card berth. Both are scheduled to hit free agency this winter, and it isn’t any surprise that the Jays have interest in keeping both players in the fold. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports that the Jays have already tried to sign Semien to a contract extension, while the club intends to discuss a long-term deal with Ray after the season.

The wording would seem to imply that the Jays have yet to broach an extension with Ray, which might not necessarily mean that the team is prioritizing Semien. Ray (like many players) might simply prefer to not talk contract during the season, in order to focus solely on baseball. Also of note, Semien is represented by the Wasserman Agency, which has traditionally been more open to in-season negotiating — in the last month alone, Wasserman clients Travis d’Arnaud and Brandon Crawford each inked new deals to remain with their current teams.

Barring a truly massive offer from the Blue Jays, it was probably unlikely that Semien would’ve accepted an extension this close to free agency, as the veteran infielder looks set to land the pricey multi-year deal that eluded him on the open market last year. Semien didn’t hit well over the first month of the shortened 2020 season, leaving him with only a .223/.305/.374 slash line in 236 total PA even after he hit much better in late September and during the Athletics’ playoff run. Rather than take a multi-year contract at a lowered cost, Semien opted for a one-year, $18MM deal with Toronto, betting on himself to deliver bigger numbers over a full season.

That bet has paid off handsomely, as Semien hit his 35th homer of the season today, and is now batting .266/.334/.530 over 601 plate appearances. With the abbreviated 2020 season folded between Semien’s big years in 2019 and 2021, his three-season cumulative total of a .268/.346/.501 slash line over 1579 PA works out to a 128 wRC+, solidly placing him amongst the best middle infielders in baseball. Semien had been a starting shortstop in Oakland before becoming the Jays’ second baseman this season, to accommodate Bo Bichette at short.

Ray also had something to prove in the wake of a rough 2020 season with the Diamondbacks and Blue Jays, and he moved quickly to rejoin the Blue Jays on a one-year, $8MM pact soon after the opening of the official free agent period. Ray had always been plagued by inconsistency and high walk totals during his five-plus seasons in Arizona, but after working with the Jays’ coaching staff and overhauling his offseason training regimen, Ray has blossomed as a candidate for the AL Cy Young Award.

Including today’s 6 2/3 shutout innings of work against Oakland, Ray has a 2.60 ERA and 32.3% strikeout rate over 166 frames. Perhaps most importantly, Ray has only a six percent walk rate — easily his career best, and in the 82nd percentile of all qualified pitchers this season. Ray has also gained enough innings to qualify as baseball’s all-time leader in K/9, with an 11.2 total over his eight MLB seasons.

In short, both Semien and Ray project to be two of the offseason’s top free agents, and re-signing both could potentially cost the Blue Jays upwards of $200MM. While it remains to be seen if the Jays will indeed be able to bring even one of the duo back for 2022 and beyond, money alone shouldn’t be a deterrent. The signings of George Springer and Hyun Jin Ryu are evidence that Toronto is willing to spend big in free agency, and many of the Jays’ young stars are either cost-controlled via arbitration or (in Bichette’s case) are still over a year away from arbitration eligibility. The Blue Jays also don’t have that much money on the books in future years, creating the possibility that both Semien and Ray could be slotted alongside Springer, Ryu, and possibly major extensions for the likes of Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Teoscar Hernandez.

2021-22 Qualifying Offer Candidates

By Anthony Franco | August 20, 2021 at 10:59pm CDT

With the trade deadline in the rearview mirror and a little more than six weeks remaining in the regular season, plenty of front offices are turning their attention towards the upcoming offseason. The first notable decision for many clubs will be to decide whether to tag one or more of their top impending free agents with a qualifying offer.

As a reminder, the qualifying offer is a one-year contract offer teams can make to certain impending free agents. The precise value of the QO has yet to be calculated, but it’s determined as the average salary of the game’s 125 highest-paid players. Last season, the QO value was set at $18.9MM. If the player accepts the offer, he returns to his current team on that one-year deal. If he rejects, his previous team would receive draft pick compensation should he sign elsewhere.

Last season, six players (George Springer, Trevor Bauer, J.T. Realmuto, DJ LeMahieu, Kevin Gausman and Marcus Stroman) received qualifying offers. Gausman and Stroman accepted the QO, while Realmuto and LeMahieu re-signed with their current clubs as free agents. The Reds and Astros received compensatory picks (used on Jay Allen and Chayce McDermott, respectively) when Bauer and Springer departed.

The collective bargaining agreement prohibits a player from being tagged with a qualifying offer multiple times in his career. (A list of every active big leaguer who has previously received a QO is available here). Similarly, in order to be eligible, the player must have spent the entire preceding season on the same team. Players traded midseason cannot be tagged with a QO.

With the majority of the 2021 season in the books, we can take a look at the upcoming free agent class to predict which players might wind up receiving qualifying offer this winter.

Locks

Carlos Correa, Freddie Freeman, Clayton Kershaw, Robbie Ray, Carlos Rodón, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Trevor Story

This group is fairly straightforward, as there’s very little chance any of these players would accept a qualifying offer. Correa, Seager and Freeman all have MVP-caliber upside and are locks to pull in long-term deals this winter. Semien didn’t receive a QO from the A’s after a down year in 2020, took a pillow contract with the Jays for almost the value of the QO ($18MM), and has essentially replicated his 2019 form that earned him a third place finish in AL MVP voting. He should find a big multi-year deal this time around.

Story is having a bit of a down year, but there’s no doubt the Rockies will make him a qualifying offer after not trading him at the deadline. Nick Groke of the Athletic wrote this week that Colorado hasn’t given up hope of convincing him to sign a long-term extension, but that seems unlikely given Story’s own bewilderment he wasn’t moved to a contender this summer. Whether Story is willing to return to Denver or not, he’ll receive a QO.

Kershaw, Ray and Rodón will be among the top pitchers on the market. Kershaw has spent the past couple months on the injured list due to forearm soreness, but he’s expected back in September and is in the midst of another fantastic season. So long as he’s healthy, he’s a lock for a QO. Ray and Rodón both had to settle for one-year deals after poor 2020 seasons, but they’ve each been among the best pitchers in the American League this year.

Likely

Michael Conforto, Jon Gray, Yusei Kikuchi, Eduardo Rodríguez, Noah Syndergaard, Chris Taylor, Justin Verlander

Over the past two seasons, Taylor has somewhat quietly been one of the game’s top 25 qualified hitters by measure of wRC+ and he’s versatile enough to cover any non-catcher position on the diamond. He’s not a true everyday player at any one spot and he’s making contact at a career-worst rate this season, so he falls just short of being an absolute lock for a QO. But the Dodgers would be as willing as any team to shoulder a significant one-year salary were Taylor to accept, and his body of work should be sufficient to warrant a multi-year deal regardless.

The Mets’ players in this group are two of the more interesting free agents in the class. Conforto entered the season looking like a lock for a QO and seemingly having a chance at landing nine figures with a strong platform year. He missed a month with injury, though, and hasn’t made anywhere near his typical level of impact at the plate. He’s shown some life over the past few weeks, and between his track record and age (28), Conforto still seems a good bet to land a long-term deal.

Syndergaard was a top-of-the-rotation starter at his peak, but he hasn’t pitched since 2019 because of Tommy John surgery. He’s eyeing a September return — likely in relief, given his dwindling time to build up arm strength — and his late-season form will obviously be critical to his market. The Mets should run one of the higher payrolls in the league, and Syndergaard has the upside to be an ace if healthy, so New York still seems more likely than not to make the offer.

Similarly, Verlander has essentially missed two full seasons because of his own Tommy John procedure. That’s a scary development for a pitcher who’ll be 39 on Opening Day 2022, but he was still every bit an ace when we last saw him in 2018-19. The Astros are a win-now club that runs high payrolls, so Verlander accepting a QO wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. If he declines and signs elsewhere, Houston would recoup some much-needed draft compensation after losing their past two first-round picks as punishment for the sign-stealing scandal.

Colorado reportedly showed even less interest in trading Gray than they did with Story at the deadline. There’s apparently mutual interest about working out a multi-year extension, and the QO could serve as a temporary measure to keep Gray in Denver while the Rockies and Gray’s representatives work on a long-term deal.

Rodríguez has bounced back to take the ball every fifth day this year after a scary bout with myocarditis cost him all of 2020. His ERA’s pushing 5.00, but his peripherals are far better than that bottom line run prevention and the southpaw has an established track record of mid-rotation production.

The Mariners are facing a difficult decision regarding Kikuchi, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored last month. Seattle must decide whether to exercise a package deal of four successive club options at $16.5MM apiece (essentially a four-year, $66MM extension) this winter. If the Mariners don’t exercise their four-year option, Kikuchi has a $13MM player option to return to Seattle for 2022. If both parties decline their ends, the 30-year-old would hit free agency this offseason, although the M’s could then tag Kikuchi with a qualifying offer.

Given that Kikuchi will only be a free agent if he passes on a $13MM player option, the Mariners would likely make him a QO worth a few million dollars more if it comes to that — either with the expectation he’ll decline in search of a longer-term deal, or with the hope he accepts and Seattle can keep him in the fold next season without committing themselves to the additional three years of guaranteed money.

Possible

Brandon Belt, Anthony DeSclafani, Raisel Iglesias, Charlie Morton

The Giants have plenty of payroll space this offseason and seem likely to try to keep most of this season’s core together. Belt has been one of the sport’s most productive offensive players on a rate basis over the past two years. But he’s also 33 years old, has a long injury history and is striking out at the highest rate of his career.

San Francisco bought low on DeSclafani over the winter after he had a tough 2020 season with the Reds. He’s bounced back to post a very strong 3.26 ERA, although his peripherals are closer to average and he’s benefitted from opponents’ .257 batting average on balls in play. The Giants will likely see 4/5 of their starting rotation hit free agency this winter, so they could be eager to bring DeSclafani back, even if that comes via a lofty 2022 salary.

Morton has had another productive season in his first year as a Brave, but his previous two teams (the Astros in 2018 and the Rays in 2020) let him reach free agency without making a qualifying offer despite his consistently strong track record. That’s presumably due to concerns about his past injury history and age. He’ll turn 38 this winter and might check his potential earning power by limiting himself to teams in the Southeastern part of the country — as he reportedly did last offseason. That could inspire the Braves to pass on a QO, but Morton continually reels off above-average performances, and this is an Atlanta front office that has been eager to dole out hefty single-year salaries for key veteran upgrades in recent years.

Iglesias looks like the top impending free agent reliever (assuming the White Sox exercise their option over Craig Kimbrel). He’s sporting an ERA under 3.00 for the fifth time in his six seasons since moving to the bullpen, and he’s never had a single-season SIERA above 3.55. Home runs have been an issue, but Iglesias gets above-average results year in and year out and has some of the best strikeout and walk numbers in the game in 2021.

Long Shots

Mark Canha, Avisaíl García, Kwang-hyun Kim, Corey Kluber, Buster Posey, Adam Wainwright, Alex Wood

The Giants hold a $22MM club option (with a $3MM buyout) over Posey’s services for next season. If the front office is willing to commit him a significant salary, they’ll just exercise the option rather than going the QO route. Indeed, they’re reportedly planning to do exactly that (or to potentially pursue a multi-year extension with the franchise icon). Either way, there’s no real reason to involve the qualifying offer here.

Canha would be a very plausible qualifying offer candidate on many teams. He’s been a well above-average hitter and overall performer three years running and is generally one of the game’s more underrated players. The A’s, though, didn’t make a QO to either of Semien or Liam Hendriks last season. Canha’s a Bay Area native, and his age (33 in February) will cap the length of offers he receives from other clubs. Given that, it’s not hard to envision him accepting a QO if offered. The A’s, who perennially run low payrolls and will have a loaded class of arbitration-eligible players this winter, don’t seem likely to take that risk.

Wainwright has had a fantastic 2021 season, and the Cardinals figure to be motivated to keep the franchise icon in St. Louis in some capacity. But that also looked to be true after his strong 2020 campaign, and Wainwright only wound up landing a one-year, $8MM deal. He’d be well-deserved in demanding a raise over that sum to return next season, but it remains to be seen if the Cardinals would be willing to chance more than doubling his salary — particularly if they feel Wainwright’s motivated to remain in St. Louis rather than pursue the highest possible offers in free agency.

Kluber signed an $11MM deal with the Yankees last offseason after back-to-back seasons wrecked by injury. He pitched well through ten starts but has been out since late May with a shoulder strain. Kluber’s nearing a return to action, but his missing nearly three months only adds to prior concerns about his ability to handle a significant workload at this stage of his career.

Kim, García and Wood are all having strong 2021 seasons and could plausibly land solid multi-year deals this winter. Each has enough question marks that their teams don’t seem especially likely to offer a salary in the range of the qualifying offer, though. Kim doesn’t miss many bats; García has had extreme highs and lows throughout his career; Wood has a checkered injury history. García’s contract contains a $12MM club option that vests into a mutual option if he reaches 492 plate appearances this season. If that option doesn’t vest, the Brewers would obviously have no incentive to decline the option only to make a qualifying offer at a higher price point.

Opt-Out Clauses

Nolan Arenado, Nick Castellanos, J.D. Martinez

Each of Arenado (six years, $179MM), Castellanos (two years, $34MM) and Martinez (one year, $19.35MM) has significant guaranteed money remaining on their contracts but can opt out of those deals this winter. Arenado and Castellanos would be locks to reject qualifying offers if they trigger their opt-out provisions, since they’d be foregoing bigger guarantees to test the market.

Martinez’s player option is of similar enough value to the projected value of the qualifying offer that he could plausibly trigger the opt-out but then accept a QO. Even if that proved to be the case, the Red Sox would probably be happy to keep him in the middle of the lineup for another season.

Ineligible

Javier Báez (midseason trade), Kris Bryant (midseason trade), Alex Cobb (previous QO), Nelson Cruz (previous QO/midseason trade), Danny Duffy (midseason trade), Eduardo Escobar (midseason trade), Kevin Gausman (previous QO), Kendall Graveman (midseason trade), Zack Greinke (previous QO), Kenley Jansen (previous QO), Starling Marte (midseason trade), Anthony Rizzo (midseason trade), Max Scherzer (previous QO/midseason trade), Kyle Schwarber (midseason trade), Marcus Stroman (previous QO)

MLB Announces All-Star Starters

By Anthony Franco | July 1, 2021 at 8:35pm CDT

Major League Baseball announced the starting lineups for the 2021 All-Star Game this evening. The starting lineups are determined by fan vote. This year’s All-Star Game will take place in Coors Field on Tuesday, July 13. The starting pitchers and reserves will be announced at a later date.

National League

Catcher: Buster Posey, Giants (7th selection)
First Base: Freddie Freeman, Braves (5th selection)
Second Base: Adam Frazier, Pirates (1st selection)
Third Base: Nolan Arenado, Cardinals (6th selection)
Shortstop: Fernando Tatís Jr., Padres (1st selection)
Outfield: Ronald Acuña Jr., Braves (2nd selection)
Outfield: Nick Castellanos, Reds (1st selection)
Outfield: Jesse Winker, Reds (1st selection)

American League

Catcher: Salvador Pérez, Royals (7th selection)
First Base: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays (1st selection)
Second Base: Marcus Semien, Blue Jays (1st selection)
Third Base: Rafael Devers, Red Sox (1st selection)
Shortstop: Xander Bogaerts, Red Sox (3rd selection)
Outfield: Mike Trout, Angels (9th selection)*
Outfield: Aaron Judge, Yankees (3rd selection)
Outfield: Teoscar Hernández, Blue Jays (1st selection)
Designated Hitter: Shohei Ohtani, Angels (1st selection)

*On the 60-day injured list

The Blue Jays Other Key Free Agent Signing Is Paying Off

By Anthony Franco | May 28, 2021 at 10:51am CDT

The Blue Jays drew plenty of headlines over the offseason for their reported interest in seemingly every free agent available. It took until late January, but the club rewarded the fanbase’s patience by landing premier center fielder George Springer on a six-year, $150MM guarantee. Various injuries have mostly kept Springer off the field to this point, but the Jays are getting a ton of production from their other key position player acquisition: Marcus Semien.

Semien was one of the more difficult free agents to value last winter. He’d been a solid regular from 2015-18, combining consistently league average offense with strong shortstop defense and durability. The 2019 season brought an offensive breakout, with Semien unexpectedly hitting .285/.369/.522 with a career-high 33 home runs. He didn’t follow up on that incredible year during the shortened 2020 season, though. Semien got off a terrible start, and while he finished the year on a hot streak, his overall .223/.305/.374 line was closer to his average hitting from 2015-18 than his fantastic numbers the year before.

With some uncertainty about his true offensive talent level and teams curtailing free agent spending on the heels of the shortened season, Semien elected to take a prove-it deal with the Jays. He signed a one-year, $18MM guarantee with Toronto just a few days after the club added Springer, agreeing to slide to second base in deference to Bo Bichette in the process. In the early going, it looks like a great decision for both player and team.

Semien is off to a career-best start at the plate in 2021. The 30-year-old is hitting .288/.355/.545 over his first 220 plate appearances. He’s completely regained his 2019 power stroke, posting a personal-high .258 ISO (slugging minus batting average), while his thirteen home runs is tied for sixth in MLB.

Unsurprisingly, a good chunk of that production seems to be the result of him simply hitting the ball harder more consistently. Semien is barreling up 8.5% of his batted balls this year, per Statcast- a better than average mark he’s only ever matched in the aforementioned 2019 season. His average exit velocity is up to a career-best 90.5 MPH, a more than 4 MPH improvement over his figure from last season. He’s also gotten more pull-oriented on his fly balls. The improved thump is no coincidence, since pulled flies lead to the most power-friendly outcomes for a hitter (the league is slugging 1.474 on such batted balls this year).

Whether Semien can sustain something like this level of production all year is still uncertain. The increase in power has come with an uptick in strikeouts to a carer-high 26.4%, and his contact rate is down more than five percentage points from that 2019 campaign. It’s also worth considering the Jays home environment. The team spent the first two months of the season at their Spring Training complex in Dunedin, which, as Mike Petriello of MLB.com recently pointed out (Twitter link), played very hitter-friendly. With the Jays moving to Buffalo (and perhaps eventually Toronto) over the next couple months, Semien’s ability to continue hitting for this kind of power is worth monitoring.

The Blue Jays have already gotten plenty of return on their investment in Semien, but there’s much at stake for both in the near future. At 25-24, Toronto will need to play better to stick in the AL postseason picture. Semien, as an impending free agent, would be a logical trade candidate if the Jays fall out of the race. (A midseason deal would remove the possibility of a team making a qualifying offer, which would only improve Semien’s market value). The upcoming free agent shortstop class has drawn plenty of attention, with Corey Seager, Trevor Story, Javier Báez and Carlos Correa all hitting the market. Semien’s older than those four, but he’s also outperforming them all to this point- with the added bonus of proving he can transition to second base if needed without issue. In the process, he’s setting himself up for another fascinating trip to the open market.

AL West Notes: La Stella, Mariners, Heim, Rangers, Andrus, A’s

By Mark Polishuk | February 6, 2021 at 9:51pm CDT

Before Tommy La Stella signed a three-year, $18.75MM deal with the Giants, the infielder drew some attention from the Mariners, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports (Twitter link). La Stella would’ve been an intriguing add for Seattle, providing a mostly right-handed hitting lineup with some addition balance from the left side. La Stella likely would have slotted in as the everyday second baseman — supplanting the planned Ty France/Shed Long/Dylan Moore timeshare at the position — and also seen some activity at first base or even third base when Kyle Seager required an off-day.

It isn’t known if the M’s were specifically keyed in on La Stella, or if they could still be looking for another regular infielder. There isn’t much in the way of infeld options remaining in free agency that would provide as clear an upgrade over the France/Long/Moore trio, though one would suspect Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto is as open as ever to trade possibilities. Surprisingly, “Trader Jerry” has only swung one deal this offseason, acquiring Rafael Montero from the Rangers.

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