MLB Announces 2023 All-Star Rosters
The starters for the 2023 All-Star Game were already announced earlier this week, and today the league revealed the reserve selections and the pitching staffs for the National League and American League teams. Fan balloting determined the game’s starters, while the reserves and pitchers were picked by a combination of the player ballot and selections from the league office.
This won’t be the final list of players involved, as some more substitutions will be announced later for players who are injured or who have opted not to participate. Every team must have at least one player represented at the Midsummer Classic, and the starting pitchers for the game will be announced on July 10.
Of note, Shohei Ohtani will be in the game as both a DH and as a pitcher for the third consecutive season. The Braves led all teams with eight All-Stars, while the Rangers weren’t far behind with six players chosen. This year’s All-Star Game takes place in Seattle on July 11.
National League
- Catcher: Sean Murphy, Braves
- First Base: Freddie Freeman, Dodgers
- Second Base: Luis Arraez, Marlins
- Third Base: Nolan Arenado, Cardinals
- Shortstop: Orlando Arcia, Braves
- Outfield: Ronald Acuña Jr., Braves
- Outfield: Corbin Carroll, Diamondbacks
- Outfield: Mookie Betts, Dodgers
- Designated Hitter: J.D. Martinez, Dodgers
- Pitchers: Alexis Diaz/Reds, Camilo Doval/Giants, Bryce Elder/Braves, Zac Gallen/Diamondbacks, Josiah Gray/Nationals, Josh Hader/Padres, Mitch Keller/Pirates, Clayton Kershaw/Dodgers, Justin Steele/Cubs, Spencer Strider/Braves, Marcus Stroman/Cubs, Devin Williams/Brewers
- Position Players: Ozzie Albies/Braves, Pete Alonso/Mets, Nick Castellanos/Phillies, Elias Diaz/Rockies, Lourdes Gurriel Jr./Diamondbacks, Matt Olson/Braves, Austin Riley/Braves, Will Smith/Dodgers, Jorge Soler/Marlins, Juan Soto/Padres, Dansby Swanson/Cubs
American League
- Catcher: Jonah Heim, Rangers
- First Base: Yandy Díaz, Rays
- Second Base: Marcus Semien, Rangers
- Third Base: Josh Jung, Rangers
- Shortstop: Corey Seager, Rangers
- Outfield: Randy Arozarena, Rays
- Outfield: Mike Trout, Angels
- Outfield: Aaron Judge, Yankees
- Designated Hitter: Shohei Ohtani, Angels
- Pitchers: Felix Bautista/Orioles, Yennier Cano/Orioles, Emmanuel Clase/Guardians, Luis Castillo/Mariners, Gerrit Cole/Yankees, Nathan Eovaldi/Rangers, Kevin Gausman/Blue Jays, Sonny Gray/Twins, Kenley Jansen/Red Sox, Michael Lorenzen/Tigers, Shane McClanahan/Rays, Shohei Ohtani/Angels, Framber Valdez/Astros
- Position Players: Yordan Alvarez/Astros, Bo Bichette/Blue Jays, Adolis Garcia/Rangers, Vladimir Guerrero Jr./Blue Jays, Austin Hays/Orioles, Whit Merrifield/Blue Jays, Salvador Perez/Royals, Jose Ramirez/Guardians, Luis Robert Jr./White Sox, Brent Rooker/Athletics, Adley Rutschman/Orioles
MLB Trade Rumors Podcast: Athletics Move, Twins Rotation, Reynolds Extension
Episode 4 of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Simon Hampton is joined by Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press to discuss:
- Oakland’s move to Las Vegas took a big step forward, so Betsy, who covered baseball for the Las Vegas Review-Journal, tells us about Vegas as a baseball city (1:35)
- The Twins are off to a solid start to the season and Joey Gallo is hitting very well, so is he back? (5:24)
- Minnesota is set to lose Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle and Kenta Maeda to free agency this winter, so after the Pablo Lopez extension Betsy offers her thoughts on whether or not there’ll be any more rotation extensions for the Twins (7:26)
Plus, MLBTR’s Anthony Franco joins to talk:
- Bryan Reynolds has agreed to an eight-year, $106.75MM extension with the Pirates – is this a good deal for the team? (15:01)
- Madison Bumgarner has been designated for assignment by the Diamondbacks and looks headed for free agency; will he find a new team? (24:57)
Check out our past episodes!
- Free agent power rankings, Shohei Ohtani‘s next contract and Aaron Nola or Julio Urias in free agency? Listen here
- Rays, top prospect debuts, Angels, trade deadline, Gary Sanchez, Francisco Alvarez – listen here
- Early trade deadline preview, Jake Cronenworth extension and the Padres, Marlins trade ideas, Cardinals rotation, Dodgers – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!
Twins Drawing Trade Interest On Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda
The Twins have received interest from other clubs in starting pitchers Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda, reports Dan Hayes of the Athletic. It’s not clear how open Minnesota is to moving either player, although it stands to reason they’d at least gauge the market and see if another club were willing to bowl them over with an offer.
It’s unsurprising other teams would eye the pair of Minnesota righties, both of whom have established track records as productive MLB starters. Gray would be the more appealing of the duo, as Maeda didn’t pitch in 2022 recovering from Tommy John surgery he underwent in September ’21. Gray dealt with a few health issues himself, missing time with a pair of strains in his right hamstring and a pectoral strain. Around the trio of injured list stints, the righty pitched well, though.
Acquired from the Reds in Spring Training, Gray made 24 starts during his first season in Minnesota. He posted a 3.08 ERA across 119 2/3 innings, fanning an above-average 24% of opponents against an average 7.4% walk rate. Gray’s 44.5% ground-ball percentage was a personal low, but it was still a bit better than par. At his best, the two-time All-Star generates a rare combination of whiffs and grounders. He hasn’t reached 30 starts in either of the past two seasons, but Gray’s an upper mid-rotation caliber arm when he’s healthy.
At year’s end, Minnesota made the easy call to exercise a $12.5MM option on his services. He’s slated to return to the Twin Cities for what’ll be his age-33 campaign before hitting the open market for the first time.
Maeda is also down to his final year under contract, with his salary to be determined by his health. The righty is headed into the final season of the eight-year deal he initially inked with the Dodgers coming off from Japan. That deal was layered with innings-based incentives, as the Dodgers expressed concerns about Maeda’s medical evaluation at the time.
The 34-year-old is due a $3MM base salary, and he’ll lock in a $150K bonus for being on the Opening Day roster. Maeda can earn an additional $10MM annually in incentives. He’d pick up $1MM each for reaching 15 and 20 starts, and $1.5MM apiece at 25, 30 and 32 starts; he can tack on up to $3.5MM based on his innings totals between 90 and 200 frames in a season, and he’d receive a $1MM assignment bonus in the event of a trade.
While there’s a chance for Maeda to earn more than Gray does next season, that’d only be in the event of his staying healthy after a lost season. If his elbow holds up and he regains his pre-surgery form, the 6’1″ hurler would be a nice addition to the middle of a starting staff. Maeda was brilliant in the shortened 2020 season, securing a second-place finish in AL Cy Young balloting with a 2.70 ERA in 11 starts. He struggled to a 4.66 mark in 21 appearances the next year, but his strikeout and walk rates remained strong. Since coming off from the Dodgers during the 2020-21 offseason, Maeda has provided the Twins 173 frames of 3.90 ERA ball with a 27.5% strikeout percentage.
It’s worth reiterating that while there’s no harm for other teams in reaching out to president of baseball operations Derek Falvey and his staff, Minnesota isn’t under any pressure to deal either pitcher. They’re both a year from free agency, but the Twins are generally expected to make another run at competing in 2023. Minnesota has had two straight disappointing seasons, and they’ll now have to overcome the free agent loss of Carlos Correa. Yet the Twins have ample payroll room, with a projected 2023 payroll nearly $30MM south of this past season’s Opening Day mark.
The Twins have been tied to each of the top two remaining free agents, Dansby Swanson and Carlos Rodón. They could fit either player into the long-term budget without subtracting anyone from the existing roster, and landing either would signal a firm commitment to trying to compete in the American League’s weakest division. Still, the Twins have also shown at least some willingness to shuffle up their MLB roster. They’ve reportedly given some consideration to moving defending AL batting champion Luis Arraez if it nets them major league help elsewhere, and they could explore a similar path with right fielder Max Kepler.
As things stand, Gray and Maeda are set to feature in an Opening Day rotation that’ll include Tyler Mahle, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober. Prospects Simeon Woods Richardson and Josh Winder are on hand as depth options, as are Cole Sands and Louie Varland. Minnesota could welcome Chris Paddack back in the season’s final two months if his recovery from a second career Tommy John surgery goes according to plan. There’s enough health uncertainty the Twins could choose to stockpile their rotation depth, though the presence of a few interesting younger options at least gives the front office alternatives if they were to ponder making Gray or Maeda available.
Twins Decline Options On Bundy, Archer, Sano
The Twins announced this afternoon they’ve declined their respective options on Dylan Bundy, Chris Archer and Miguel Sanó. Minnesota also confirmed the previously-reported decision to exercise their option to retain starter Sonny Gray. None of those come as a surprise, as they were each easy calls for the Minnesota front office.
Bundy signed a $5MM guarantee last offseason, with the Twins rolling the dice he’d bounce back after an injury-plagued 2021 campaign in Anaheim. The deal came with an $11MM club option for 2023, giving them some extra contractual upside if Bundy righted the ship in the Twin Cities. The right-hander did stay healthy enough to take the ball 29 times and soak up 140 innings, but he didn’t put up the kind of numbers the front office had envisioned. Bundy managed only a 4.89 ERA with a well below-average 15.8% strikeout rate and a modest 9.7% swinging strike rate. He demonstrated excellent control, walking fewer than 5% of opponents, but he didn’t miss many bats and surrendered 24 home runs (1.54 per nine innings).
A former fourth overall pick and top pitching prospect, Bundy has seen his velocity trend downwards as he’s battled injury concerns throughout his career. He averaged only 89 MPH on his four-seam this year, the first time his already pedestrian fastball has dipped below 90 MPH on average. Bundy, who turns 30 later this month, will collect a $1MM buyout and head back to free agency. He’s likely looking at one-year offers as a depth arm again, and it’s possible his next deal will come with a lower base salary than this’s year $4MM figure.
Archer was also an offseason signee, joining Bundy as part of Minnesota’s efforts to bolster the back of its rotation. He inked an incentive-laden deal that guaranteed him a $2.75MM base salary and a $750K buyout on a 2023 option. He tacked on $3MM in incentives by making 25 starts this year, bringing Minnesota’s ultimate outlay to $6.5MM. Rather than trigger their end of a $10MM mutual option for next season, Minnesota sends the two-time All-Star back to the open market.
The 34-year-old posted a 4.56 ERA across 102 2/3 innings as Twin. That was his biggest workload since 2019, but Archer still had a pair of injured list stints due to hip and pectoral issues. When healthy, he posted a below-average 19.2% strikeout rate and walked batters at an elevated 11% clip. The righty still averaged 93 MPH on his heater, but this year’s 9.5% swinging strike percentage was his lowest mark since 2014.
Sanó, meanwhile, hits free agency for the first time in his career. Today’s move, while without suspense, looks as if it’ll officially close the books on his 13-year tenure in the organization. A high-profile amateur signee out of the Dominican Republic and subsequently one of the best prospects in the game, Sanó made his big league debut in 2015. He hit the ground running against MLB pitching, showcasing the massive raw power and lofty walk totals but huge strikeout rates that’d define his entire tenure in Minnesota.
The burly slugger looked capable of carrying a lineup at his best, including a .247/.346/.576, 34-homer showing in only 105 games in 2019. That earned Sanó a $30MM extension the following offseason, but that proved to be a misstep for the Twins. He posted only slightly above-average offensive numbers from 2020-21 and had an almost completely lost 2022 campaign. Sanó played in 20 games this year, putting up an .083/.211/.133 line in 71 plate appearances while battling persistent knee issues. The 29-year-old returned briefly from early-season knee surgery but spent the last two months on the IL.
Minnesota makes the easy call to pay Sanó a $3MM buyout rather than trigger a $14MM option on his services. He hits the market as a buy-low option for teams seeking first base help, with his huge power sure to get him some attention from another club.
Twins To Pick Up Sonny Gray’s Team Option
The Twins plan to pick up starter Sonny Gray‘s $12.7MM team option for the 2023 season, per Jon Heyman of the NY Post.
Acquired at the start of the 2022 season from the Reds, Gray has been a solid presence in the Twins’ rotation. Across 24 starts (119 2/3 innings) the veteran right-hander pitched to a 3.08 ERA with a 24% strikeout rate, 7.4% walk rate, and 44.1% groundball rate.
However, Gray has been burdened by injuries in recent years, pitching over 140 innings in only two of his last six seasons, excluding the shortened 2022 season. In 2022, the righty spent time on the 10-day and 15-day IL with a right hamstring strain and a right pectoral strain, respectively. Additionally, Gray averaged just under five innings per start in 2022.
Nevertheless, when healthy, Gray has been a strong presence in the Twins’ rotation. In the second half of the season, the veteran pitched to an impressive 2.38 ERA in 56 2/3 innings. During this time, opposing batters hit a meager .212/.286/.335 against him.
As noted in MLBTR’s Offseason Outlook, Twins starters ranked 20th in the Majors with a 4.11 ERA and 27th with 782 2/3 innings in 2022. With Joe Ryan and Tyler Mahle returning, along with Kenta Maeda who spent the 2022 season recovering from Tommy John surgery, the Twins have a formidable quartet of quality starters as they look to return to the top of the AL Central.
Twins Place Sonny Gray On IL With Hamstring Strain
The Twins announced that they have placed right-hander Sonny Gray on the 15-day injured list due to a right hamstring strain. His roster spot will go to fellow righty Trevor Megill, who has been reinstated from the COVID IL. Additionally, righty Dereck Rodriguez, who was designated for assignment on the weekend, has cleared waivers and been outrighted to Triple-A.
Gray, 32, started yesterday’s game against the Guardians but was pulled after throwing just 44 pitches in two innings. Though Gray could technically return on the last day of the season, October 5, it’s quite likely that this will conclude his 2022 campaign.
Acquired from the Reds in a March trade, Gray was very good when healthy enough to take the mound. He made two other trips to the IL, one for a hamstring strain in April and another for a pectoral strain in June. Around those injuries, he made 24 starts and threw 119 2/3 innings with a 3.08 ERA, 24% strikeout rate, 7.4% walk rate and 44.5% ground ball rate.
That has sort of been the story for the Twins as a whole as well, as they seemed to be the best team in the AL Central for much of the year until mounting injuries dragged them down. They had a lead as big as 5.5 games in late May, but have since slid down to third place, seven games back of the Guardians and three behind the White Sox. Given that their postseason chances are effectively gone at this point, it makes logical sense to let Gray put his feet up for the next little bit as opposed to taking a chance on making his injury worse. Gray joins 17 of his teammates on the IL, bringing the club’s total to 18.
Minnesota’s rotation is now left with Joe Ryan, Dylan Bundy, Bailey Ober and Josh Winder, leaving one spot to be filled. It’s possible that rookie Ronny Henriquez, who threw 73 pitches after Gray’s departure yesterday, could just step in, though that remains to be seen.
Gray is in the final guaranteed season of the extension he signed with the Reds back in 2019, though there’s a $13.1MM club option for 2023. That’s a bargain price for a pitcher of Gray’s caliber, making it a fairly easy decision for the Twins to exercise it and bring him back for 2023.
Twins Place Tyler Mahle On 15-Day Injured List
In his first start back from the injured list, Tyler Mahle lasted only two innings before leaving last night’s game due to inflammation in his right shoulder. As a result, Mahle has been returned to the 15-day IL, with left-hander Jovani Moran recalled from Triple-A. Moran was only optioned to Triple-A yesterday as the corresponding move for Mahle’s activation.
Shoulder inflammation was responsible for Mahle’s previous IL stint, and he also missed three weeks in July due to a right shoulder strain. Since July 3, Mahle has appeared in only six games and tossed 28 1/3 innings, with his last four starts coming with Minnesota after being acquired by the Reds at the trade deadline.
The Twins hoped that Mahle would be a big boost to the rotation down the stretch, and he did at least contribute a 2.51 ERA over his first three outings in a Minnesota uniform (with the Twins winning all three of those games). However, given the recurring nature of his shoulder problems, it is fair to wonder if Mahle’s season could be in jeopardy.
Twins manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters (including MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Park) yesterday that Mahle was slated to undergo more examinations today, and implied that another IL stint was forthcoming, “What that means going forward? No one knows the answer to that yet. I’m not closing the book on him, this season, pitching for us,” Baldelli said.
As Park noted, Mahle’s start yesterday bore several similarities to the August 17 start that preceded his last IL visit. In both outings, Mahle’s velocity was down, and he threw only 37 pitches. The difference was that on August 17, Mahle still managed to hold the Royals scoreless in 2 1/3 innings, whereas the White Sox scored four runs in Mahle’s two innings yesterday en route to a 13-0 Chicago victory.
That loss dropped the Twins to 6-9 over their last 15 games. Despite a losing record (37-43) since the start of June, Minnesota remains only one game back of the Guardians for the AL Central lead, with the White Sox a game behind in third place. The division title may be the Twins’ best path to the postseason, as the Twins have fallen five games back of the last wild card berth.
Getting to the playoffs will be more difficult without Mahle, who is now the 17th player on the Twins’ extensive injured list. This list includes several notable regulars (i.e. Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco, Ryan Jeffers, Trevor Larnach) who are tentatively expected to return in September, but the Twins can hardly afford to be without such key personnel for so long.
Sonny Gray is also a question mark after leaving his start on Friday due to hamstring tightness, as Baldelli said Gray would have to throw a bullpen session and pass other tests before being allowed to make his next start. Gray is tentatively slated to start for Minnesota on Wednesday against the Yankees, but if he can’t pitch, that leaves the rotation even more short-handed.
Forecasting The 2022-23 Qualifying Offers: Pitchers
Yesterday, we took a look at the pending free agent position players who could be candidates to receive a qualifying offer this winter. Now, let’s turn our attention to what free agent pitchers might be in line for a QO, with the caveat that players can only receive one qualifying offer in their careers, and a player must spend the entire 2022 season with his team to be eligible.
Easy Calls: Chris Bassitt (Mets), Jacob deGrom (Mets), Edwin Diaz (Mets), Nathan Eovaldi (Red Sox), Carlos Rodon (Giants)
DeGrom has already said that he is opting out of the final guaranteed season of his contract, leaving $30.5MM on the table in 2023 to seek out a longer-term pact. Rodon is also sure to opt out of the final year (and $22.5MM) of his two-year contact with San Francisco, as Rodon earned his opt-out by triggering a vesting option at the 110-innings threshold.
Even with Eovaldi’s injury history, retaining him for one year at roughly $19MM seems like a pretty good outcome for the Red Sox, particularly given all the other question marks in Boston’s rotation. So there’s little risk for the Sox in issuing Eovaldi a QO, though it would seem like Eovaldi will probably reject it.
Face-of-the-Franchise Veterans: Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers), Adam Wainwright (Cardinals)
With Kershaw considering retirement last winter, the Dodgers opted against issuing him a qualifying offer as a free agent, as a nod towards giving the longtime ace all the time he needed to make a decision on his future. It stands to reason that the Dodgers will take the same path this winter, unless Kershaw gives them advance notice of his plans for 2023….though in that scenario, the two sides might just work out an extension before free agency even officially opens.
The same could be true of Wainwright, who has signed one-year contracts to rejoin the Cardinals in each of the last four offseasons. In three of those cases, Wainwright inked his new deal either just after the start of the free agent period or before it altogether, so it’s safe to assume the two sides will work out a new pact without the QO coming into play. Of course, this assumes that Wainwright will come back for an 18th Major League season, but even as his 41st birthday approaches, the right-hander is still going strong.
Easy Contract-Option Calls: Carlos Carrasco (Mets), Sonny Gray (Twins), Aaron Nola (Phillies)
These starters could be free agents if their club options are declined, and thus are technically qualifying-offer candidates. However, the trio are all virtual locks to have their options exercised, and their respective options are all worth less than the projected cost of the qualifying offer.
Borderline Cases: Tyler Anderson (Dodgers), Mike Clevinger (Padres), Zach Eflin (Phillies), Sean Manaea (Padres), Martin Perez (Rangers), Jameson Taillon (Yankees), Taijuan Walker (Mets)
Walker is yet another Mets entry on this list, as he is very likely to decline his $6MM player option for 2023 and instead take a $3MM buyout into free agency. Advanced metrics paint a less-flattering picture of Walker’s performance than his bottom-line numbers, and he has battled both injury and consistency problems over his career, though Walker has been relatively healthy in his two seasons in New York. It would seem likely that the Mets will issue Walker a QO, and 2022 has been enough of a platform year for the righty that he will probably turn the qualifying offer down.
The Padres are another team with multiple QO candidates, as while Joe Musgrove was kept off the open market with a $100MM extension, Manaea and Clevinger remain. Due in part to two particularly disastrous outings against the Dodgers, Manaea’s ERA is an ungainly 4.76 over 119 innings. Clevinger has a solid 3.47 ERA in his return from Tommy John surgery, but that is only over 70 innings, due to both his TJ rehab as well as a triceps strain and a week on the COVID-related IL.
Right now, Manaea and Clevinger could possibly be candidates to accept a qualifying offer, if they don’t feel they have enough of a platform to maximize their free agent market. Solid performances over the final month and a half of the season would make it an easier decision for either pitcher to reject a QO, and easier for the Padres to decide whether or not to issue the offers. San Diego could be facing a third consecutive year of luxury-tax overage in 2023, especially if Manaea and/or Clevinger are on the books for a $19MM-ish salary.
Eflin is another player who needs to post some solid numbers down the stretch, but first and foremost, the Philadelphia right-hander just needs to get healthy. Eflin has been on the IL since late June due to a kneecap bruise, and his continued knee soreness is a red flag for a pitcher who has undergone multiple knee surgeries in the past. When healthy, Eflin has been a quietly solid pitcher for the Phillies over the last five seasons, yet his lingering knee problems are certainly a concern. There is the interesting wrinkle of a $15MM mutual option between Eflin and the Phils for 2023, and while mutual options are rarely exercised by both parties, this could be a rare situation where it would make sense for both the player and the team. Paying $15MM for Eflin would also represent some risk for the Phillies, but it would be less than the value of a qualifying offer.
After a great start to the season, Taillon’s numbers have come back to earth a bit, with a 3.95 ERA over 120 2/3 innings. A below-average strikeout pitcher, Taillon has relied on excellent control and spin rates on his fastball and curve to limit damage, and he also doesn’t allow too much hard contact. Perhaps most importantly given Taillon’s injury history, he has been healthy in 2022, which should make offseason suitors more open to giving him a longer-term contract. For now, it seems probable that the Yankees would issue Taillon a QO rather than let him potentially walk away for nothing in free agency.
The idea of Anderson or Perez as QO candidates would’ve seemed quite farfetched heading into the season, yet the two veteran left-handers are each enjoying career years that resulted in All-Star appearances. Their underwhelming career histories could prevent the Dodgers and Rangers from issuing qualifying offers, since either pitcher would likely take the big payday, and $19MM is a lot to invest in basically one season of evidence (even for a Dodgers team that is comfortable blowing past luxury tax thresholds).
However, it would certainly make sense for either club to pursue re-signings, even if a qualifying offer isn’t involved. The Rangers have already been vocal about their desire to retain Perez, so it is quite possible he signs an extension before even hitting the open market.
Previewing Upcoming Club Option Decisions: American League
Yesterday, MLBTR checked in on the status of seven players who have vesting options in their contracts for the 2023 season. Each can (or already has) lock in some guaranteed money or the right to opt out of their current deal based on their workload or finish in awards voting this year.
Over the next two days, we’ll turn our attention to players with less of a say over their contractual status. A host of contracts around the league contain club options for 2023. Some of them will be easy decisions one way or the other, while there are others that’ll be more borderline calls. With teams having to make these calls a little over two months from now, it’s worth taking a look at how these players are performing in 2022.
Today, we’ll start with the American League. We’ll follow up with a look at the Senior Circuit tomorrow.
Orioles
- Jordan Lyles, SP ($11MM option, $1MM buyout)
Baltimore signed Lyles to a $7MM guarantee last winter, taking the form of a $6MM salary for 2022 and at least a $1MM buyout on next year’s option. He’s been a fine back-end starter, working to a 4.35 ERA across 130 1/3 innings. Lyles has below-average strikeout, swinging strike and ground-ball rates, but he leads the club in innings pitched and is throwing plenty of strikes. He’s also drawn strong reviews for his work in the clubhouse with the team’s younger arms. A $10MM call is borderline for a 4th/5th starter type, but the Orioles have almost nothing on the books next season and could keep him around as a veteran stabilizer.
Red Sox
- James Paxton, SP (team must decide on consecutive $13MM options this offseason; Paxton would have $4MM player option for 2023 if club declines)
Paxton signed a convoluted deal last winter that reflected his atypical situation. A mid-rotation caliber starter when healthy, he’s made just six starts over the past three years and hasn’t pitched in an MLB game since undergoing Tommy John surgery last April. He’s making $6MM this season and could be a rotation option for a team that’ll see each of Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha and Rich Hill hit free agency. The club will have to decide whether to trigger consecutive $13MM options (essentially a two-year, $26MM pact) this winter. If they decline, Paxton could opt in to a $4MM salary for 2023 or test free agency. How things play out largely depends on how Paxton looks down the stretch. Manager Alex Cora recently told reporters the southpaw will throw a simulated game on Friday and could soon head out on a minor league rehab appearance (link via Chris Cotillo of MassLive).
- Hirokazu Sawamura, RP (team holds option currently valued at $3.6MM; Sawamura holds player option for 2023 currently valued at $1.8MM if club declines)
Sawamura signed a two-year, $3MM guarantee with the Red Sox over the 2020-21 offseason. The deal also included a club option for 2023 valued anywhere between $3-4MM, depending on whether Sawamura held his roster spot and based on his number of appearances. MLBTR has confirmed that escalators have already pushed the value of the club option to $3.6MM; that price escalates by an additional $100K for reaching each of 45, 50 and 60 appearances this season. (He’s presently at 43 games). If the team declines, Sawamura would have the right to trigger a player option currently valued at $1.8MM. As with the club option, the player option price escalates by $100K for reaching 45, 50 and 60 appearances. If both sides bypass their respective options, Sawamura would receive a $1MM buyout.
It seems likely that Sawamura’s team option price will fall somewhere in the $3.8MM – 3.9MM range, with a $1.8MM gap between the value of the club and player options. That’s an acceptable price to pay for a solid reliever, albeit one who’s been relied upon more in lower-leverage innings. Sawamura has a 3.14 ERA in 97 1/3 innings since coming stateside, striking out a decent 23% of opponents with a strong 51.7% ground-ball rate. He’s had issues throwing strikes consistently, but he’s an affordable power arm for a middle innings group that has been one of the team’s biggest weaknesses. That the Red Sox haven’t given Sawamura much high-leverage work in spite of their bullpen struggles is enough of a red flag to put this one in some doubt, but it seems likelier they’ll keep him around.
Yankees
- Luis Severino, SP ($15MM option, $2.75MM buyout)
Severino barely pitched between 2019-21 because of injuries, including a Tommy John recovery. He returned to the rotation this season and pitched to an impressive 3.45 ERA through 16 starts before suffering a lat injury that’ll cost him at least two months. The injury history is a real concern, but Severino still looks like an above-average starter when healthy. He’s averaged around 96 MPH on his fastball, struck out 27.2% of opposing hitters and has a tiny 7.2% walk rate. The Yankees would have to be very pessimistic about his health outlook to buy out his age-29 season, particularly since it’s only a $12.25MM decision once the buyout price is taken into account.
Rays
- Kevin Kiermaier, CF ($13MM option, $2.5MM buyout)
Kiermaier hit .228/.281/.369 over 221 plate appearances before suffering a season-ending left hip injury. It’s the latest in a long line of major health issues for the 32-year-old, and the Rays are planning to buy out the three-time Gold Glove winner. It’s possible the team tries to circle back at a lower price point, but the career-long Ray is likely to hit the open market for the first time in his career.
Blue Jays
- Anthony Bass, RP ($3MM option, $1MM buyout)
The Jays just acquired Bass from the Marlins at the trade deadline, fortifying their bullpen with a productive middle-innings arm. Bass has an excellent 1.49 ERA through 48 1/3 innings on the year, striking out 26.2% of opponents against just a 5.9% walk rate. It’s a career-best season at age 34, but Bass has a sub-4.00 ERA for five years running. He’s an underrated bullpen piece, and the Jays are sure to bring him back for what amounts to a $2MM decision.
White Sox
- Tim Anderson, SS ($12.5MM option, $1MM buyout)
This is as easy a call as any team will have to make this winter. Anderson has been one of the game’s better players four years running. He’s an elite contact hitter and baserunner, and he’s cemented himself as the Sox’s franchise shortstop. His 2022 season has been dinged by injuries, including a recent hand ligament tear that’ll cost him most of the remaining schedule. Frustrating year aside, Anderson has hit at a quality .301/.339/.395 clip this season and been an All-Star caliber performer in prior years. The White Sox are keeping him around next year, and they can do the same in 2024 via $14MM option.
- Josh Harrison, 2B ($5.5MM option, $1.5MM buyout)
Harrison signed a one-year deal in Spring Training and got off to a dreadful start. The veteran utilityman has turned things on since the calendar flipped to June, though, and he now carries a roughly league average .242/.312/.385 line through 281 plate appearances. The Sox will have to make a $4MM call this offseason on whether to bring him back for 2023. They’ll probably look for an upgrade at second base, but that’s a reasonable enough sum to dedicate to a quality infielder off the bench. Chicago already has Leury García making decent money in that role, and they might prefer to focus their finances on adding to the back of the rotation and bringing back star first baseman José Abreu.
Guardians
- Bryan Shaw, RP ($4MM option, $500K buyout)
Shaw is a longtime member of the Cleveland organization, having spent seven of his 11 MLB seasons there. He’s a durable bullpen workhorse who’s clearly a favorite of the coaching staff and front office, but his 2022 results have not been good. The 34-year-old righty owns a 5.36 ERA across 40 1/3 innings. He’s only striking out 17.7% of opponents, walking batters at an elevated 11.6% clip and has had some home run issues. The Guardians seem likely to go in another direction this offseason.
Twins
- Miguel Sanó, 1B ($14MM option, $3MM buyout)
Sanó is a longtime member of the organization who’s capable of carrying a lineup with his power at his best. His platform season has been a disaster, though, and the Twins are sure to buy out his option. The 29-year-old underwent surgery to repair a meniscus tear in his knee in May. He returned briefly but went back on the 60-day injured list last week with additional knee concerns. It’s not clear whether he’ll make it back this season. Sanó has an .083/.211/.133 line in 20 games this year after slightly above-average offensive performances in 2020-21.
- Sonny Gray, SP ($13.1MM option, no buyout)
Just as Sanó’s option is certain to be bought out, Gray’s is a no-brainer to exercise. Minnesota acquired the right-hander from the Reds in Spring Training, sending last year’s first-round pick Chase Petty to Cincinnati. Gray lost some time on the injured list, but he’s posted an impressive 3.19 ERA with slightly above-average peripherals through his first 16 starts in a Twins uniform. A mid-rotation starter of his caliber is a solid bargain at the cost of his option, which played into the fairly high asking price the Twins had to relinquish in the trade.
- Dylan Bundy, SP ($11MM option, $1MM buyout)
The Twins bought low on Bundy on a one-year free agent deal, hoping he’d rebound from a dismal 2021 and look more like the mid-rotation arm he resembled in 2020. That hasn’t really transpired, as the right-hander has a 5.01 ERA through 93 1/3 innings. He’s averaging a personal-low 89.2 MPH on his fastball, and while he’s throwing plenty of strikes, that lack of velocity has been reflected in both his 18.6% strikeout rate and higher than average home run rate. It seems likely the Twins will decline the option and reallocate that $10MM elsewhere, particularly with the recent acquisition of Tyler Mahle and Kenta Maeda’s expected return reducing the urgency to add to the rotation next season.
Astros
- Will Smith, RP ($13MM option, $1MM buyout)
Acquired in a one-for-one deadline swap that sent Jake Odorizzi to Atlanta, Smith is having a generally disappointing year. He has a 4.17 ERA through 41 innings, striking out a personal-worst 24.1% of batters faced with a career-high 11.2% walk rate. Smith was an effective late-game arm as recently as a season ago and is still generating swinging strikes at a quality 14.2% clip, but the $12MM price tag seems likely to be too hefty given the mediocre strikeout and walk numbers.
Athletics
- Stephen Piscotty, RF ($15MM option, $1MM buyout)
Piscotty has spent five seasons in Oakland after being acquired from the Cardinals heading into the 2018 campaign. He had an excellent first season in green and gold, but he’s been a well below-average hitter fours years running now. Going back to the start of 2019, Piscotty has a .231/.288/.380 line in just under 900 trips to the plate. He’s sure to be bought out and could be looking at minor league offers next winter.
Mariners
- Ken Giles, RP ($9.5MM option, $500K buyout)
Seattle signed Giles to a two-year deal knowing he’d miss all of 2021 recovering from Tommy John surgery. Unfortunately, hopes of a year two payout have been largely derailed by a finger issue that delayed his season debut and some shoulder tightness that has kept him out of action for the past month. Giles has thrown just 4 1/3 innings in a Seattle uniform, surrendering only one hit but four walks with six strikeouts. He’s averaged 94.8 MPH on his fastball, still solid but down from the 96.9 MPH range he showed during his incredible 2019 season with the Blue Jays. There’s a non-zero chance Giles returns — he’s currently on a rehab assignment in Triple-A — and dominates down the stretch to make Seattle think about the option. For the moment, though, it’s trending towards a buyout.
Rangers
- Garrett Richards, RP ($9MM option, $1MM buyout)
Texas signed the 34-year-old Richards to a one-year guarantee over the offseason, hoping he’d build off the promise he showed in a late-season bullpen stint with the Red Sox. That hasn’t panned out, as he has a 5.35 ERA across 38 2/3 innings of relief. Richards has an excellent 52.1% ground-ball rate, but he’s not missing as many bats as one would like and he’s giving up a lot of hard contact. Texas seems likely to buy him out.
- José Leclerc, RP ($6MM option, $750K buyout)
Texas signed Leclerc to an early-career extension in 2019, locking him in after a 1.56 ERA season the year before. He struggled with his control the following season, then missed virtually all of 2020-21 battling elbow issues that eventually culminated in Tommy John surgery. Leclerc returned to the mound in June but has a 4.01 ERA with a personal-low 20.4% strikeout percentage in 24 2/3 innings of generally low-leverage work. He’s still throwing hard and missing plenty of bats with his slider, so there’s a chance Texas takes an optimistic view and keeps him around. His deal also contains a $6.25MM option for 2024, so he’d be under control for multiple seasons if the Rangers are willing to give him a bit of a longer leash. This feels like it could go either way depending on how he performs down the stretch.
- Kole Calhoun, RF ($5.5MM option, no buyout)
The Rangers signing of Calhoun to a one-year deal over the winter hasn’t panned out. He’s hitting .211/.269/.363 through 350 plate appearances and is currently on the injured list with a heel issue. It’s a second straight below-average season for the veteran outfielder, who’ll be 35 in October. The Rangers will almost assuredly decline the option and look elsewhere in right field as they aim for legitimate competitiveness in 2023.
Twins Place Sonny Gray On Injured List
The Twins announced Thursday that they’ve placed right-hander Sonny Gray on the 15-day injured list due to a right pectoral strain. The move is retroactive to May 30, so Gray will be eligible to return on June 14. Right-hander Yennier Cano is up from Triple-A St. Paul to take Gray’s spot on the active roster.
It’s the second IL stint of the season for Gray, who also missed time during the first month of the year due to a hamstring strain. He’s been excellent when on the mound, registering a 2.41 ERA with a 29.8% strikeout rate and a 7.5% walk rate — both strong marks that are well better than league average. Gray has thus far managed just 33 2/3 innings, however, which is surely less than the Twins envisioned when acquiring him in a March trade with the Reds that sent prospect Chase Petty to Cincinnati.
Gray joins Joe Ryan, Chris Paddack, Josh Winder, Kenta Maeda and Randy Dobnak on a crowded Twins injured list and leaves the Twins with a current rotation mix of Dylan Bundy, Devin Smeltzer, Bailey Ober and Chris Archer. It’s not a group that’s going to jump off the page at first glance, but the Twins rank sixth in the Majors with a 3.34 ERA and third with a 3.38 FIP their starting staff.
Minnesota has gotten solid performances from Bundy (aside from one disastrous outing), Ober, Archer and Smeltzer in particular as of late. Still, Gray and Ryan are the clear top options on the Twins’ staff, so being without both righties is problematic. Ryan is currently on the Covid-related IL and working toward a return. Manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters today that Ryan is “a tick behind” outfielder Gilberto Celestino, who’s also on the Covid list but has now received two negative tests and is meeting the team in Toronto tomorrow (Twitter link via Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press). The Twins are currently deciding whether he’ll need a rehab start.
Strong as Minnesota’s starters have been to begin the season, it still wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Twins venture out into the trade market to further bolster the staff in the next two months. The Twins, eight games over .500, currently lead their division by five games and sport the fourth-best run differential (+29) in the American League.