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Previewing Upcoming Club Option Decisions: American League

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Yesterday, MLBTR checked in on the status of seven players who have vesting options in their contracts for the 2023 season. Each can (or already has) lock in some guaranteed money or the right to opt out of their current deal based on their workload or finish in awards voting this year.

Over the next two days, we’ll turn our attention to players with less of a say over their contractual status. A host of contracts around the league contain club options for 2023. Some of them will be easy decisions one way or the other, while there are others that’ll be more borderline calls. With teams having to make these calls a little over two months from now, it’s worth taking a look at how these players are performing in 2022.

Today, we’ll start with the American League. We’ll follow up with a look at the Senior Circuit tomorrow.

Orioles

Baltimore signed Lyles to a $7MM guarantee last winter, taking the form of a $6MM salary for 2022 and at least a $1MM buyout on next year’s option. He’s been a fine back-end starter, working to a 4.35 ERA across 130 1/3 innings. Lyles has below-average strikeout, swinging strike and ground-ball rates, but he leads the club in innings pitched and is throwing plenty of strikes. He’s also drawn strong reviews for his work in the clubhouse with the team’s younger arms. A $10MM call is borderline for a 4th/5th starter type, but the Orioles have almost nothing on the books next season and could keep him around as a veteran stabilizer.

Red Sox

  • James Paxton, SP (team must decide on consecutive $13MM options this offseason; Paxton would have $4MM player option for 2023 if club declines)

Paxton signed a convoluted deal last winter that reflected his atypical situation. A mid-rotation caliber starter when healthy, he’s made just six starts over the past three years and hasn’t pitched in an MLB game since undergoing Tommy John surgery last April. He’s making $6MM this season and could be a rotation option for a team that’ll see each of Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha and Rich Hill hit free agency. The club will have to decide whether to trigger consecutive $13MM options (essentially a two-year, $26MM pact) this winter. If they decline, Paxton could opt in to a $4MM salary for 2023 or test free agency. How things play out largely depends on how Paxton looks down the stretch. Manager Alex Cora recently told reporters the southpaw will throw a simulated game on Friday and could soon head out on a minor league rehab appearance (link via Chris Cotillo of MassLive).

  • Hirokazu Sawamura, RP (team holds option currently valued at $3.6MM; Sawamura holds player option for 2023 currently valued at $1.8MM if club declines)

Sawamura signed a two-year, $3MM guarantee with the Red Sox over the 2020-21 offseason. The deal also included a club option for 2023 valued anywhere between $3-4MM, depending on whether Sawamura held his roster spot and based on his number of appearances. MLBTR has confirmed that escalators have already pushed the value of the club option to $3.6MM; that price escalates by an additional $100K for reaching each of 45, 50 and 60 appearances this season. (He’s presently at 43 games). If the team declines, Sawamura would have the right to trigger a player option currently valued at $1.8MM. As with the club option, the player option price escalates by $100K for reaching 45, 50 and 60 appearances. If both sides bypass their respective options, Sawamura would receive a $1MM buyout.

It seems likely that Sawamura’s team option price will fall somewhere in the $3.8MM – 3.9MM range, with a $1.8MM gap between the value of the club and player options. That’s an acceptable price to pay for a solid reliever, albeit one who’s been relied upon more in lower-leverage innings. Sawamura has a 3.14 ERA in 97 1/3 innings since coming stateside, striking out a decent 23% of opponents with a strong 51.7% ground-ball rate. He’s had issues throwing strikes consistently, but he’s an affordable power arm for a middle innings group that has been one of the team’s biggest weaknesses. That the Red Sox haven’t given Sawamura much high-leverage work in spite of their bullpen struggles is enough of a red flag to put this one in some doubt, but it seems likelier they’ll keep him around.

Yankees

Severino barely pitched between 2019-21 because of injuries, including a Tommy John recovery. He returned to the rotation this season and pitched to an impressive 3.45 ERA through 16 starts before suffering a lat injury that’ll cost him at least two months. The injury history is a real concern, but Severino still looks like an above-average starter when healthy. He’s averaged around 96 MPH on his fastball, struck out 27.2% of opposing hitters and has a tiny 7.2% walk rate. The Yankees would have to be very pessimistic about his health outlook to buy out his age-29 season, particularly since it’s only a $12.25MM decision once the buyout price is taken into account.

Rays

Kiermaier hit .228/.281/.369 over 221 plate appearances before suffering a season-ending left hip injury. It’s the latest in a long line of major health issues for the 32-year-old, and the Rays are planning to buy out the three-time Gold Glove winner. It’s possible the team tries to circle back at a lower price point, but the career-long Ray is likely to hit the open market for the first time in his career.

Blue Jays

The Jays just acquired Bass from the Marlins at the trade deadline, fortifying their bullpen with a productive middle-innings arm. Bass has an excellent 1.49 ERA through 48 1/3 innings on the year, striking out 26.2% of opponents against just a 5.9% walk rate. It’s a career-best season at age 34, but Bass has a sub-4.00 ERA for five years running. He’s an underrated bullpen piece, and the Jays are sure to bring him back for what amounts to a $2MM decision.

White Sox

This is as easy a call as any team will have to make this winter. Anderson has been one of the game’s better players four years running. He’s an elite contact hitter and baserunner, and he’s cemented himself as the Sox’s franchise shortstop. His 2022 season has been dinged by injuries, including a recent hand ligament tear that’ll cost him most of the remaining schedule. Frustrating year aside, Anderson has hit at a quality .301/.339/.395 clip this season and been an All-Star caliber performer in prior years. The White Sox are keeping him around next year, and they can do the same in 2024 via $14MM option.

Harrison signed a one-year deal in Spring Training and got off to a dreadful start. The veteran utilityman has turned things on since the calendar flipped to June, though, and he now carries a roughly league average .242/.312/.385 line through 281 plate appearances. The Sox will have to make a $4MM call this offseason on whether to bring him back for 2023. They’ll probably look for an upgrade at second base, but that’s a reasonable enough sum to dedicate to a quality infielder off the bench. Chicago already has Leury García making decent money in that role, and they might prefer to focus their finances on adding to the back of the rotation and bringing back star first baseman José Abreu.

Guardians

Shaw is a longtime member of the Cleveland organization, having spent seven of his 11 MLB seasons there. He’s a durable bullpen workhorse who’s clearly a favorite of the coaching staff and front office, but his 2022 results have not been good. The 34-year-old righty owns a 5.36 ERA across 40 1/3 innings. He’s only striking out 17.7% of opponents, walking batters at an elevated 11.6% clip and has had some home run issues. The Guardians seem likely to go in another direction this offseason.

Twins

Sanó is a longtime member of the organization who’s capable of carrying a lineup with his power at his best. His platform season has been a disaster, though, and the Twins are sure to buy out his option. The 29-year-old underwent surgery to repair a meniscus tear in his knee in May. He returned briefly but went back on the 60-day injured list last week with additional knee concerns. It’s not clear whether he’ll make it back this season. Sanó has an .083/.211/.133 line in 20 games this year after slightly above-average offensive performances in 2020-21.

Just as Sanó’s option is certain to be bought out, Gray’s is a no-brainer to exercise. Minnesota acquired the right-hander from the Reds in Spring Training, sending last year’s first-round pick Chase Petty to Cincinnati. Gray lost some time on the injured list, but he’s posted an impressive 3.19 ERA with slightly above-average peripherals through his first 16 starts in a Twins uniform. A mid-rotation starter of his caliber is a solid bargain at the cost of his option, which played into the fairly high asking price the Twins had to relinquish in the trade.

The Twins bought low on Bundy on a one-year free agent deal, hoping he’d rebound from a dismal 2021 and look more like the mid-rotation arm he resembled in 2020. That hasn’t really transpired, as the right-hander has a 5.01 ERA through 93 1/3 innings. He’s averaging a personal-low 89.2 MPH on his fastball, and while he’s throwing plenty of strikes, that lack of velocity has been reflected in both his 18.6% strikeout rate and higher than average home run rate. It seems likely the Twins will decline the option and reallocate that $10MM elsewhere, particularly with the recent acquisition of Tyler Mahle and Kenta Maeda’s expected return reducing the urgency to add to the rotation next season.

Astros

Acquired in a one-for-one deadline swap that sent Jake Odorizzi to Atlanta, Smith is having a generally disappointing year. He has a 4.17 ERA through 41 innings, striking out a personal-worst 24.1% of batters faced with a career-high 11.2% walk rate. Smith was an effective late-game arm as recently as a season ago and is still generating swinging strikes at a quality 14.2% clip, but the $12MM price tag seems likely to be too hefty given the mediocre strikeout and walk numbers.

Athletics

Piscotty has spent five seasons in Oakland after being acquired from the Cardinals heading into the 2018 campaign. He had an excellent first season in green and gold, but he’s been a well below-average hitter fours years running now. Going back to the start of 2019, Piscotty has a .231/.288/.380 line in just under 900 trips to the plate. He’s sure to be bought out and could be looking at minor league offers next winter.

Mariners

  • Ken Giles, RP ($9.5MM option, $500K buyout)

Seattle signed Giles to a two-year deal knowing he’d miss all of 2021 recovering from Tommy John surgery. Unfortunately, hopes of a year two payout have been largely derailed by a finger issue that delayed his season debut and some shoulder tightness that has kept him out of action for the past month. Giles has thrown just 4 1/3 innings in a Seattle uniform, surrendering only one hit but four walks with six strikeouts. He’s averaged 94.8 MPH on his fastball, still solid but down from the 96.9 MPH range he showed during his incredible 2019 season with the Blue Jays. There’s a non-zero chance Giles returns — he’s currently on a rehab assignment in Triple-A — and dominates down the stretch to make Seattle think about the option. For the moment, though, it’s trending towards a buyout.

Rangers

Texas signed the 34-year-old Richards to a one-year guarantee over the offseason, hoping he’d build off the promise he showed in a late-season bullpen stint with the Red Sox. That hasn’t panned out, as he has a 5.35 ERA across 38 2/3 innings of relief. Richards has an excellent 52.1% ground-ball rate, but he’s not missing as many bats as one would like and he’s giving up a lot of hard contact. Texas seems likely to buy him out.

Texas signed Leclerc to an early-career extension in 2019, locking him in after a 1.56 ERA season the year before. He struggled with his control the following season, then missed virtually all of 2020-21 battling elbow issues that eventually culminated in Tommy John surgery. Leclerc returned to the mound in June but has a 4.01 ERA with a personal-low 20.4% strikeout percentage in 24 2/3 innings of generally low-leverage work. He’s still throwing hard and missing plenty of bats with his slider, so there’s a chance Texas takes an optimistic view and keeps him around. His deal also contains a $6.25MM option for 2024, so he’d be under control for multiple seasons if the Rangers are willing to give him a bit of a longer leash. This feels like it could go either way depending on how he performs down the stretch.

The Rangers signing of Calhoun to a one-year deal over the winter hasn’t panned out. He’s hitting .211/.269/.363 through 350 plate appearances and is currently on the injured list with a heel issue. It’s a second straight below-average season for the veteran outfielder, who’ll be 35 in October. The Rangers will almost assuredly decline the option and look elsewhere in right field as they aim for legitimate competitiveness in 2023.

Twins Place Sonny Gray On Injured List

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The Twins announced Thursday that they’ve placed right-hander Sonny Gray on the 15-day injured list due to a right pectoral strain. The move is retroactive to May 30, so Gray will be eligible to return on June 14. Right-hander Yennier Cano is up from Triple-A St. Paul to take Gray’s spot on the active roster.

It’s the second IL stint of the season for Gray, who also missed time during the first month of the year due to a hamstring strain. He’s been excellent when on the mound, registering a 2.41 ERA with a 29.8% strikeout rate and a 7.5% walk rate — both strong marks that are well better than league average. Gray has thus far managed just 33 2/3 innings, however, which is surely less than the Twins envisioned when acquiring him in a March trade with the Reds that sent prospect Chase Petty to Cincinnati.

Gray joins Joe Ryan, Chris Paddack, Josh Winder, Kenta Maeda and Randy Dobnak on a crowded Twins injured list and leaves the Twins with a current rotation mix of Dylan Bundy, Devin Smeltzer, Bailey Ober and Chris Archer. It’s not a group that’s going to jump off the page at first glance, but the Twins rank sixth in the Majors with a 3.34 ERA and third with a 3.38 FIP their starting staff.

Minnesota has gotten solid performances from Bundy (aside from one disastrous outing), Ober, Archer and Smeltzer in particular as of late. Still, Gray and Ryan are the clear top options on the Twins’ staff, so being without both righties is problematic. Ryan is currently on the Covid-related IL and working toward a return. Manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters today that Ryan is “a tick behind” outfielder Gilberto Celestino, who’s also on the Covid list but has now received two negative tests and is meeting the team in Toronto tomorrow (Twitter link via Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press). The Twins are currently deciding whether he’ll need a rehab start.

Strong as Minnesota’s starters have been to begin the season, it still wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Twins venture out into the trade market to further bolster the staff in the next two months. The Twins, eight games over .500, currently lead their division by five games and sport the fourth-best run differential (+29) in the American League.

AL Central Notes: Gray, Grossman, Greinke

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Twins’ starter Sonny Gray left today’s game after being visited by team trainers. The team announced to reporters, including Dan Hayes of The Athletic, that Gray has right pectoral tightness. The severity isn’t known at this time, but it’s no doubt worrying for the Twins and their fans. Gray already missed about three weeks on the IL this season, although that was a hamstring strain.

Still, the Twins are in a bit of a squeeze when it comes to their rotation. Chris Paddack, Josh Winder and Joe Ryan have all landed on the IL in the past couple of weeks, which has thinned out their depth. The rotation at the moment consists of Gray, Dylan Bundy, Bailey Ober, Chris Archer and Devin Smeltzer. The club is currently in the middle of a stretch where they play 18 games in 17 days, thanks to a doubleheader that’s coming up on Tuesday. Even if Gray can make his next start, it’s going to be a challenge to get through the next chunk of their schedule.

Perhaps adding to that challenge will be the subtraction of some unknown players when the Twins head to Toronto next week to face the Blue Jays. Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune relays word from president of baseball operations Derek Falvey that “a few” of the players on the roster won’t be making the journey. Current Canadian health restrictions don’t allow for those not vaccinated against COVID-19 to cross the border into the country. (Canada is not exceptional in this regard. The same restrictions apply in reverse, as unvaccinated Canadians are not currently allowed to enter the United States.)

Other notes from the division…

  • Robbie Grossman started today’s game as the designated hitter for the Tigers but was replaced by Jeimer Candelario. Manager A.J. Hinch told reporters after the game, including Jason Beck of MLB.com, that Grossman was experiencing neck spasms. While it doesn’t appear Grossman is headed for a lengthy absence, it’s surely frustrating for a Detroit team that has been heavily snakebit this season. Though the club entered the season with hopes of competing for a playoff spot, they’ve been hit by a large number of injuries, most notably in the starting rotation. The club’s record is currently 17-29, putting them second-last in the American League, ahead of only the Royals. That has the club trending towards being sellers at the deadline this year, with short-term assets the most likely to go. Grossman fits that bill, as he’s in the second season of the two-year deal he signed with Detroit in 2021. Unfortunately, his trade value is likely at a low ebb, due to his slow start to the year. After hitting .239/.357/.415 last year for a wRC+ of 114, he’s currently slashing .199/.311/.241 this year for a 71 wRC+. Last year’s 23.1% strikeout rate has also shot up to 30.7% this year. He and the Tigers will both surely be hoping that this current issue can be quickly left behind so that Grossman can get back on track. The Blue Jays tried to acquire Grossman at last year’s deadline, though they may not have as much interest now, based on his campaign so far.
  • Royals manager Mike Matheny tells reporters, including Lynn Worthy of the Kansas City Star, that Zack Greinke is dealing with a forearm/flexor issue. Greinke himself spoke to reporters about the issue, including Worthy, describing his arm as “sore and tight.” Like the Tigers, there was some hope of the Royals coming out of their rebuild and competing his year, though that hasn’t happened. The club’s 16-30 record is worse than every team in the majors except for the 16-31 Reds, thanks in no small part to the starting rotation. Royals’ starters had an ERA of 5.07 coming into today, which was better than only the Reds and Nationals. That’s going to go up once today’s game is factored in, as Greinke allowed five earned runs in four innings today. His personal ERA on the season climbed to 5.05 from that start, which would be his highest since the 5.80 he put up back in 2005, his age-21 season. While the severity of the injury isn’t known, it’s never a good sign for a pitcher to have an arm issue, though he and the club will surely hope he can get past it and onto a better track going forward.

Health Notes: Gray, Murphy, Flaherty, Soroka

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The Twins announced this morning that Sonny Gray has been activated from the injured list to start today’s game against the A’s, with Cole Sands optioned out in a corresponding move. Gray has been out of action since April 16, when he left a start in the second inning due to a right hamstring strain. Acquired from the Reds as the Twins’ biggest rotation pickup of the offseason, Gray has made just a pair of starts with his new club. Despite his three-week absence, Minnesota has gotten excellent production out of their starting staff thus far. Twins starters rank sixth in MLB in ERA (3.12) and eighth in strikeout/walk rate differential (17.1 percentage points). Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Archer, Chris Paddack and highly-regarded prospect Josh Winder each have an ERA of 3.26 or lower; Dylan Bundy is currently on the COVID-19 injured list, but the Twins could have an interesting call on how the rotation should be comprised once Bundy returns.

Some other injury updates around the league:

  • Mariners catcher Tom Murphy left last night’s game against the Rays after dislocating his shoulder on a tag attempt at home plate. After the game, skipper Scott Servais said Murphy will be out for a while (via Corey Brock of the Athletic). The team will presumably provide a more specific timetable in the coming days, but it’s all but certain he’ll head to the injured list before tonight’s contest. The M’s optioned Opening Day backstop Cal Raleigh to Triple-A last week, and it’s likely he’ll be recalled to pair with Luis Torrens behind the dish. Murphy had been off to an excellent start to the year, reaching base in 18 of his first 42 plate appearances.
  • Cardinals ace Jack Flaherty is set to throw a bullpen session before tonight’s game against the Giants, tweets Katie Woo of the Athletic. She notes that it’s Flaherty’s first bullpen work since he was shut down from throwing in Spring Training due to shoulder bursitis. It’s obviously a notable step in the righty’s recovery timeline, but manager Oli Marmol cautioned the club was prepared for a “pretty lengthy (rehab) progression” and still doesn’t have a target date for his return. Flaherty missed a month last season because of a shoulder strain (in addition to a longer absence on account of an oblique issue), so it’s wholly unsurprising the team is proceeding with caution. St. Louis has managed an impressive 3.15 rotation ERA — albeit with more pedestrian peripherals — in the absence of arguably their top starter.
  • Braves right-hander Mike Soroka hasn’t thrown an MLB pitch since August 2020, the result of successive Achilles ruptures that have sidetracked a fantastic start to his young career. The most recent of his surgeries occurred last June and came with an estimated year-long recovery timeline, and he opened this season on the injured list. Soroka remains on track in his rehab, he and manager Brian Snitker informed reporters yesterday (via Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution and Mark Bowman of MLB.com). The right-hander has thrown off a mound without issue around five times, and he’s soon to begin pitcher-fielding practice. The club is still hoping he can make it back to the majors shortly after the All-Star Break, and Toscano notes they’re not considering transitioning him to relief to expedite his return.

Twins To Place Sonny Gray On 10-Day IL, Activate Cody Stashak

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Twins starter Sonny Gray left yesterday’s start with right hamstring tightness and will be placed on the IL, per Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune. Cody Stashak, who began the season on the IL with right biceps tendinitis, will swap places with Gray and join the active roster.

Gray threw 31 pitches yesterday before the hamstring issue ended his start prematurely. In the immediate aftermath of the game, he was considered to be day-to-day and perhaps not in need of a trip to the IL. Now it seems the team has decided to play it cautious and give him a chance to recuperate. As stated by Miller, the club anticipates he will only miss one start. Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com relays that the Twins will condense their six-man rotation down to five in Gray’s absence, with Dylan Bundy, Chris Archer, Chris Paddack, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober as the remaining members. Josh Winder pitched well in long relief after Gray’s departure yesterday (2 earned runs in 5 1/3 innings) but will stay in a long relief role.

Stashak had a nice showing over 2019 and 2020, throwing 40 MLB innings with a 3.15 ERA, 26.1% strikeout rate and excellent 2.5% walk rate. In 2021, he threw 15 2/3 innings with a 6.89 ERA, with his strikeout rate jumping up to 34.7% but his walk rate hitting 13.3%. He was placed on the 60-day IL in June with a left back disk injury and didn’t pitch again. The 27-year-old will now look to get back on track after a lengthy absence.

Twins Notes: Gray, Rodriguez, Buxton

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Sonny Gray left today’s start because of right hamstring tightness after facing just seven batters, per MLB.com’s Ian Browne (via Twitter). Gray is day-to-day, and they won’t move him to the injured list as of right now, per MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Park (via Twitter). They should have a better idea tomorrow if they’re going to need to skip him in the rotation. Josh Winder pitched well in relief, and he could be an option for a spot start or two if Gray can’t go. With a six-man rotation, however, the Twins could also make do simply by skipping Gray’s spot. He’s not scheduled for another start until next Friday against the White Sox. In other Twins news…

  • Right-hander Dereck Rodriguez has cleared waivers and been assigned to Triple-A St. Paul, per MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Park (via Twitter). Rodriguez made one appearance, giving up three earned runs over four innings before being designated for assignment. He spent last season in Triple-A with the Rockies, but did not make it to the Show. He posted a 6.72 ERA over 85 2/3 innings for Albuquerque.
  • Byron Buxton’s MRI came back clean, and like Gray, the Twins are leaning towards leaving him on the active roster as he heals, per The Athletic’s Dan Hayes. Buxton had his knee drained of fluid from inflammation, but with no structural damage, the hope is that Buxton can be back on the diamond in a couple of days. Buxton’s health is obviously a significant variable for the Twins this season, and they’ll want to be prudent before sending him back onto the grass.

Twins Acquire Sonny Gray From Reds

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The Reds and Twins are in agreement on a deal headlined by right-hander Sonny Gray, moving from Cincinnati to Minnesota, per Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer (via Twitter). Along with Gray, the Twins will receive minor league right-hander Francis Peguero. In return, the Reds will acquire the 26th overall selection of the 2021 draft, right-hander Chase Petty. Both teams have announced the deal, making it official.

This deal has the potential to shake up both central divisions. The Twins, for their part, look much improved with the addition of Gray, and they might not be done adding starters, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). With Kenta Maeda out after undergoing Tommy John surgery, the rotation was easily the Twins’ biggest area of need moving forward.

Although the Twins bottomed out last year, which led to the sell-off of a number of high-profile names, much of the talent that took them to the playoffs in 2019 and 2020 remains. Gray represents a pseudo replacement for the biggest departure, Jose Berrios, who was traded to the Blue Jays in July. Though Berrios was a homegrown star – and he’s four and a half years younger than Gray – in the short term, the 32-year-old Gray is certainly capable of holding the line in what was once Berrios’ rotation spot.

Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey praised Gray for a makeup that’s “off the charts,” mentioning his ability to “anchor the rotation” and set an example for younger starters, per this video clip from Phil Miller of the Star Tribune. The player, the personality, and the two years of team control made Gray a natural target for this Twins’ squad.

Berrios is the broader talent of the two, but one could argue that Gray is a better fit for this particular Twins roster because of the versatility his contract affords them. Despite a $1MM bump to his contract because of the trade, tweets Nightengale, Gray’s 2022 salary still clocks in at a mere $10.7MM. Furthermore, the Twins now hold an affordable $13MM club option for 2023. That’s plenty economical for a rotation arm coming off a 3.3 rWAR/2.4 fWAR output over 135 1/3 innings spanning 26 starts.

Given the contract, the Twins can flip Gray again if they crater as they did in 2021, but if the club proves to be more competitive, Gray figures to be one of the reasons why. His strikeout numbers were down a touch from his career norms, down to a still-solid 27.0 percent strikeout rate, but his walk rate also improved to 8.7 percent, and there’s little reason to think he can’t continue to be a solid mid-to-front-end arm.

Gray should be helped by moving from the Reds’ uneven defense to a fairly well-equipped defensive unit in Minnesota. If Byron Buxton stays healthy, and Josh Donaldson can avoid an age-related decline at third, the Twins ought to catch their share of baseballs, especially with Isiah Kiner-Falefa taking over at short.

In terms of the wider impact on Minnesota’s roster, the rotation doesn’t have much else in the way of sure things. Randy Dobnak was signed to a low-risk, long-term contract last winter, but the 27-year-old struggled mightily in 2021 and didn’t end up spending much time in the rotation. Dylan Bundy had a similar kind of year for the Angels. The 29-year-old has a longer track record, but no less uncertainty. Joe Ryan, are Bailey Ober are likeliest to fill out the middle of the rotation, with Lewis Thorpe and Griffin Jax also competing for an opportunity. That’s not a unit to set your hair on fire, but it’s getting closer.

The Twins, of course, not only get the most established arm in the deal, but they’re also getting Peguero, a 24-year-old reliever out of the Dominican Republic who finished last season in High-A. Peguero isn’t close to the prospect that Petty is, but he’s a flyer nonetheless who at least has a chance of becoming a late-inning bullpen arm. Peguero posted a 4.96 ERA over 32 2/3 innings last year, striking out 36 batters in 32 2/3 innings, picking up six saves.

Taking the aerial view, the AL Central continues to get more competitive. The Tigers and Twins have both made strides to challenge the White Sox, who had a relatively clear path to a division title in 2021. Whether this will be enough to get the Twins back to their 2019-20 level remains to be seen.

On the other side, the Reds step further away from their short-lived identity as a free-spending all-out contender for the NL Central crown. The Reds spent aggressively to end their playoff drought prior to the 2020 season, and they succeeded in that measure, making the expanded playoffs as a 31-29 wild card team. They were shut out in their two playoff games, however. They actually improved by winning percentage in 2021, finishing the year with 83 wins, but out of the playoff money.

It’s tough to imagine the 2022 Reds doing even that well after subtracting Gray and Wade Miley from the rotation. Miley, of course, they gave away for nothing, letting division rival Chicago claim him off waivers. Miley may be a 35-year-old coming off a career year, but it still seems relatively short-sighted to let go of a starter who just posted a 5.9 rWAR season without netting even a lottery pick in return.

For Gray, at least, the Reds aren’t walking away empty-handed. Petty is a live-armed righty who can hit triple digits on the radar gun. As the Twins’ top draft pick in the 2021 draft, he comes with plenty of upside, but he’s also just a month out from turning 19. His future, therefore, comes with a wide range of potential outcomes. If nothing else, the Reds accomplished the goal of cutting money from their payroll while adding to the farm system.

Petty was the 7th-ranked prospect in the Twins’ system, per Baseball America, which marks both his fastball and slider as potential 70-grade offerings. He was starting games for the Twins and would continue to do so in 2022, but they saw Petty’s most likely future to be that of a “back-end reliever,” per The Athletic’s Dan Hayes (via Twitter). BA, similarly, writes that “Petty’s upside is significant, but his specific player demographic is inherently risky and he’ll need plenty of time to develop.”

The variability built into Petty’s future might make this trade a tough pill to swallow for Reds’ fans. In the short term, it’s fair to wonder if this deal drops the Reds behind even the Cubs in the overall hierarchy of the NL Central. They are firmly behind the Cardinals and Brewers, and still firmly ahead of the Pirates.

The coming weeks will tell a lot about how the Reds view this deal. If they are entering a full-blown rebuild, rumors about the availability of Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle will continue to swirl. If, however, the Reds view this deal as a calculated re-balancing of the books – in the vein of how leadership pitched the Raisel Iglesias trade last winter – the Reds might still have enough talent leftover in the rotation to hang around the NL Central race.

At this point, however, they will be relying on a relatively unproven collection of arms after Castillo and Mahle. It’s hard to see where the rotation can build on last year’s success without Gray and Miley unless Hunter Greene quickly emerges as a frontline arm. Vladimir Gutierrez held his own last year, but he’ll need to take another step forward to be anything more than a back of the rotation arm.

There is time left this offseason for the Reds to shift the narrative, but for the time being, this move will further the perception of the Reds as a cost-conscious also-ran more concerned with lowering payroll than truly competing. Critics will lump this deal in with the Iglesias and Tucker Barnhart trades as evidence of their penny-pinching. The Barnhart deal is defensible because of the presence of Tyler Stephenson, but the Iglesias deal ended up hurting the club more than they anticipated in 2021. If the rotation falls off as many expect it will, the Reds will have a hard time selling this move as an example of roster savvy.

Blue Jays “Very Interested” In Tyler Mahle Prior To Lockout

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4:29 pm: The Jays also had interest in Gray and Castillo before the lockout, tweets Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet. That’s hardly a surprise, given that all three Cincinnati arms figure to draw plenty of attention from rival clubs whenever the transactions freeze ends.

12:51 pm: The Blue Jays had Tyler Mahle on their radar as a trade target before the lockout, as TSN’s Scott Mitchell hears from a source that the Jays “were very interested” in the Reds right-hander.  The exact timing of the Jays’ interest isn’t specified, or whether or not the club may have moved on from big-ticket pitching acquisitions after signing Kevin Gausman.

Cincinnati GM Nick Krall began the offseason with a quick trade of catcher Tucker Barnhart to the Tigers, and followed that deal up with his now somewhat infamous statement that the Reds “must align our payroll to our resources and continue focusing on scouting and developing young talent from within our system.”  Wade Miley (who had a $10MM club option for 2022) was then placed on waivers and claimed by the Cubs, thus sparking even more speculation about just how much payroll the Reds were looking to shed.

As such, players like Mahle, Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, and many other veteran Reds players were immediately seen as trade candidates, even though Cincinnati didn’t make any other overt cost-cutting transactions before the lockout hit.  As MLBTR’s Anthony Franco speculated last month, it could be that between the Barnhart/Miley moves and Nick Castellanos’ likely free agent departure, the Reds might have already gotten their finances in order.  On top of that, the Reds were reportedly open to discussing Gray in trade talks but not either Mahle or Castillo.

This isn’t to say that the Reds wouldn’t at least listen if Toronto or another team came calling with a big offer, and if the Reds still had designs on contending in 2022, the Blue Jays could offer some combination of both young talent and big league-ready pieces.  Cincinnati would likely only accept such a significant trade package for Mahle given that he is both controlled through the 2023 season and coming off the strongest of his five years in the majors.

The 27-year-old righty has been both durable (227 2/3 innings) and effective since the start of the 2020 season, posting a 3.72 ERA and a 28.3% strikeout rate, though Mahle’s 8.9% walk rate was below the league average.  Mahle did have strong fastball spin rates in both seasons, and 2021 saw Mahle post far and away the best hard-hit ball rate of his career.

Mahle seems overqualified for a fourth or fifth starter role, yet that might be where he lines up in a Toronto rotation that also consists of Gausman, Jose Berrios, Hyun Jin Ryu, and Alek Manoah.  Ross Stripling is penciled in as the fifth starter for the moment, though as Mitchell notes, Stripling “profiles better as a swingman and spot starter” than as a regular rotation member.  Top prospect Nate Pearson is likely going to be on an innings limit after two injury-plagued seasons, so while a Pearson/Stripling combo isn’t bad on paper, the Jays might prefer to shift both pitchers into depth roles and cement their rotation by adding some sort of veteran starter, perhaps even one as accomplished as Mahle.

While it remains to be seen if Cincinnati will ultimately deal any of its three starters, the fact that all three may be available to some degree gives the Reds some leverage in talks.  In that sense, the Jays aren’t only bidding against other teams interested in Mahle, but also against what other teams (like the Dodgers or Angels) might offer the Reds for Castillo and/or Gray.  Given how aggressive Toronto GM Ross Atkins has been in searching out pitching options over the last few years, it is probably safe to assume that the Jays have also checked in on obtaining Castillo or Gray, though only the Blue Jays front office knows which Cincinnati starter is their chief target.

The 14 Likeliest Trade Candidates After The Lockout

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We saw robust free agent activity prior to the December 1st lockout, with 30 of our top 50 free agents signing contracts.  Over $2 billion was committed to 62 players on Major League contracts, by our count.

With all the focus on free agency, the trade market was relatively quiet.  Position players Tucker Barnhart, Adam Frazier, Jacob Stallings, Joey Wendle, Jorge Alfaro, Hunter Renfroe, and Jackie Bradley Jr. were the biggest names on the move.

Though the lockout does not appear close to an end, we can assume it will conclude at some point.  Once that happens, a scramble roughly four-to-six weeks in length seems likely to commence, in which both Spring Training and all remaining offseason transactions will take place.  Aside from the expected free agent frenzy for the top remaining names, the trade market figures to kick heavily into gear.

Recently, I got together with Steve Adams and Anthony Franco to assess the potential trade market.  We wound up putting trade candidates into several buckets.  The first bucket, covered in this post, is simply players we feel are likely to be traded, whether stars or regulars.  One caveat: many of these trade candidates are interconnected.  For example, the A’s are almost certain to trade at least one of Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, and Frankie Montas, but we don’t expect them to trade all three.  Without further ado, we present MLBTR’s 14 Likeliest Trade Candidates:

1. Matt Olson / 1B / Athletics

The A’s are widely expected to hold a fire sale as a means of reducing their payroll.  Olson, who we project to earn $12MM in 2022 through arbitration, seems highly likely to be dealt.  Olson is controlled for two more years through arbitration.  He provides huge power from the left side and is set to turn 28 in March.  Olson’s 39 home runs were tied for fifth in the AL last year, as was his 146 wRC+.  Olson is not only known for his bat; his defense at first base ranked second in the game in the 2021 Fielding Bible Awards.  It’s simply quite rare to find a 5-WAR player with two years of control like Olson available on the trade market; the last decent offseason comparable we can find is when the Marlins traded J.T. Realmuto to the Phillies three years ago.

There aren’t too many teams that couldn’t find a spot for Olson.  He’s probably the one reasonable replacement for Freddie Freeman that Braves fans might find palatable.  The Yankees, Dodgers, Rays, Rockies, Marlins, Brewers, Phillies, Padres, and Giants are other speculative fits, especially if the DH comes to the NL as expected.  The Realmuto trade was led by Sixto Sanchez, considered a 65-grade prospect by Baseball America at the time of the deal.  Teams these days are extremely reluctant to part with prospects of that caliber, who generally fall within the top 30 in the game.  The A’s are in the driver’s seat as they look for the best overall offer.

2.  Matt Chapman / 3B / Athletics

The Matts have been teaming up at the infield corners for the A’s since 2018.  It’s quite possible both could be traded once the lockout ends.  Chapman has consistently been an above average hitter in every year of his MLB career, though in 2021 he was only a tick above average with a 101 wRC+.  In the three seasons prior, Chapman posted a 130 mark, hitting a career-best 36 home runs in 2019.  Combine that level of offense with Chapman’s Gold Glove defense at the hot corner, and he was an MVP candidate in 2018-19.  He’ll turn 29 in April.

Chapman’s stellar defense – ranked second in the game at third base in the ’21 Fielding Bible Awards – gives him a high floor even if his bat slips like it did in 2021.  Chapman is so good defensively at third base that ESPN’s Buster Olney has reported that the Yankees talked internally about the possibility of acquiring him to play shortstop, which he has done for all of ten innings in the Majors.  The result is a player who is worth more than 3 WAR with an average bat, and 6+ when he’s mashing.  A new team would look to solve Chapman’s recent slide in contact and line drives at the plate, but the A’s aren’t selling Chapman quite at his peak.

Like Olson, Chapman is an arbitration eligible player with two more years of control remaining.  We project him to earn $9.5MM in 2022.  The Mariners, Blue Jays, Phillies, Yankees, Rays, Rockies, and Dodgers could be possible landing spots.

3.  Sean Manaea / SP / Athletics

The A’s also have multiple strong trade candidates in their starting rotation.  We’ll start with Manaea, who has only one year of control remaining and is projected to earn $10.2MM through arbitration.  Manaea, a southpaw who recently celebrated his 30th birthday, made 32 starts in 2021 with a 3.91 ERA.  While Manaea has a mid-rotation profile, he did show career-best velocity and his best swinging strike rate in ’21, with his customary excellent control.

After a July 28th gem in San Diego, Manaea had his ERA down at 3.01.  He then posted a brutal 9.90 ERA in August before returning to form in September.  Manaea’s Statcast indicators are not particularly impressive, whether you’re looking at exit velocity or spin rate.

Aside from Carlos Rodon and Clayton Kershaw, Manaea is still better than just about every starting pitcher still available in free agency.  He’d benefit many teams’ rotations, including the Tigers, Angels, Twins, Orioles, Yankees, Mariners, Rangers, Braves, Cubs, Rockies, Dodgers, Mets, Giants, and Nationals.

4.  Chris Bassitt / SP / Athletics

Bassitt, projected to earn $8.8MM in 2022, is yet another A’s trade candidate.  It’s unclear whether the A’s would deal multiple starting pitchers, but again, we wouldn’t rule it out.  Manaea and Bassitt make particular sense because both are headed for free agency after the ’22 season.

Bassitt, a righty, is approaching his 33rd birthday.  Since 2020, he sports a 2.90 ERA in 220 1/3 innings – seventh in all of baseball for those with at least 200 innings in that time.  In 2021, Bassitt’s 18.8 K-BB% was a career best.  Unlike Manaea, Bassitt also boasts above average Statcast indicators, especially an 88th percentile hard-hit percentage.  Whether that’s enough for Bassitt to continue outpitching his SIERA as he has is unknown, but you can’t argue with the results so far.

Bassitt suffered a scary injury in August when a Brian Goodwin line drive struck his face, but fortunately he was able to return for a pair of outings in September.  He should command a higher price on the trade market than Manaea, although the two pitchers are not that far apart in projections for 2022.

Wondering about Frankie Montas?  He’s a trade candidate as well, but we’ve put him into more of a “plausible” bucket than “likely,” and he’ll be covered in an upcoming post by Steve Adams.

5.  Lou Trivino / RP / Athletics

Trivino makes it a quintet of A’s to lead off this post.  The 30-year-old righty is a decent reliever projected to earn $2.9MM in 2022.  He still has three years of control remaining and he’s not making a lot of money yet, but there’s also not a compelling reason for the A’s to hang on to him this offseason.

Trivino posted a 3.18 ERA in 2021, along with a 95.8 mile per hour average fastball velocity and 85th percentile hard-hit rate.  Still, his K-BB% was only 10.6.  After picking up his 21st save against the Giants on August 20th, Trivino’s ERA stood at 1.72.  Then he went through a rough five-outing patch in which he allowed 13 earned runs in only 3 2/3 innings.  After that, Trivino recovered and pitched well in his final 11 outings.

Trivino doesn’t have great control, and he hasn’t always been a strikeout artist either.  So it’s not an amazing profile, but he’s had success at times and is affordable and controllable.  He can fit in somewhere as a seventh or eighth inning reliever.

6.  Craig Kimbrel / RP / White Sox

The Cubs’ June 2019 signing of Kimbrel was going poorly until the 2021 season, when he put up a dominant 0.49 ERA and 46.7 K% in 36 2/3 innings.  The Cubs sold high and shipped Kimbrel across town to the White Sox for Nick Madrigal and Codi Heuer.  Kimbrel struggled with the Sox, posting a 5.09 ERA while being done in by the longball.  The White Sox still chose to pick up Kimbrel’s hefty $16MM club option instead of taking a $1MM buyout.  They’ve already got Liam Hendriks in the closer role, and signed Kendall Graveman to a $24MM contract.

As I wrote in December, White Sox GM Rick Hahn spoke openly about trading Kimbrel, saying, “We’ve had conversations with other clubs and have a sense of what is potentially available.” Hahn added, “It’s easy to make the assessment that if you put him back in the closer’s role, it’s what he’s accustomed to and he’s more likely to have success.” I don’t find that to be a particularly reliable assessment: put Kimbrel back in a closer role, and he’ll be good again.  That didn’t prove true for the Cubs in 2019 or 2020.

I think the White Sox would very much like to trade Kimbrel, but they may have overestimated his popularity in the market at his salary.  Perhaps they’ll need to kick in a few million or take a decent-sized contract back to make it more palatable.  I’m not sure if an intra-division trade could be worked out, but the Royals have spoken of trying to upgrade their bullpen.  The Rays, Rangers, Blue Jays, Marlins, Mets, and Phillies could make some sense, but only if the money can be worked out and if the White Sox finds a team that actually believes Kimbrel will succeed in ’22.

7.  Kevin Kiermaier / CF / Rays

Kiermaier, 32 in April, has been the Rays’ primary center fielder for the past seven seasons.  He’s picked up three Gold Gloves in that time, and ranked third in the game in the ’21 Fielding Bible Awards.  With the bat, a league average season is generally the best case scenario.  Kiermaier signed a six-year deal with the Rays back in 2017.  He’s owed $12MM this year plus a $2.5MM buyout on a $13MM club option for ’23.

Kiermaier has been involved in trade rumors for years, but this may be the point where the Rays finally pull the trigger.  Baseball America ranks Rays prospect Josh Lowe 44th overall in the game, noting that he plays a plus center field.  Lowe also posted a 142 wRC+ at Triple-A, so he appears ready to take over.  The club can also give center field innings to Manuel Margot, Brett Phillips, and Vidal Brujan.

Teams like the Phillies, Yankees, Braves, Cubs, Rockies, Marlins, Giants, and Nationals could be potential fits for Kiermaier.

8.  Dominic Smith / LF-1B-DH / Mets

And now we enter the Mets portion of the list.  Smith was the Mets’ primary left fielder in 2021, but they added Mark Canha in free agency.  They’ve also got Pete Alonso locked in at first base and Robinson Cano set to DH.  A Smith-Canha platoon isn’t in the cards, since the Mets aren’t paying Canha $12MM this year to be the short side of one and Smith oddly hit lefties better than righties this year anyway.

There are certainly scenarios where Smith stays put, especially if the club decides they’d rather give him a good share of DH at-bats than Cano.  But, Smith doesn’t really have a spot right now and he posted an 86 wRC+ in 2021.  It’s possible the Mets are ready to move on.

Why would anyone be interested?  Keep in mind that Smith was drafted 11th overall out of high school back in 2013, and prior to the ’17 season was considered a top-70 prospect in the game.  After struggling early in his career, he posted a 150 wRC+ over 396 plate appearances from 2019-20 and crushed both lefties and righties.  He seemed primed for a 30 home run season in ’21.  Instead, Smith spent about three months as a regular in 2021 – May through July.  He had a 111 wRC+ in that time, but around August began sitting against lefties in favor of Kevin Pillar.

Smith is still only 26 years old.  He’s projected to earn $4MM this year and has three years of control remaining.  I think many teams will be interested in giving him regular playing time at left field, first base, or DH.  The Guardians, Rays, Rangers, Cubs, Rockies, Phillies, Pirates, and Padres are a few that come to mind.

9.  J.D. Davis / 3B-LF / Mets

Davis is another Mets player who doesn’t seem to have a spot in 2022.  He split time between left field and third base in 2019 and served as the club’s primary third baseman in 2020.  This year, Davis began as the Mets’ Opening Day third baseman, but spent significant time on the DL for a hand contusion and sprain, which ultimately led to surgery in October.  By August, Davis had fallen behind Jonathan Villar on the team’s third base depth chart.  While Villar is now a free agent, the Mets brought Eduardo Escobar in and he’s penciled in at the hot corner for ’22.  As we mentioned before, the team also imported Canha for left field and may choose to give a lot of DH time to Robinson Cano.

Since Davis came to the Mets in a January 2019 trade with the Astros, all he’s done is hit.  Davis has a 130 wRC+ in 893 plate appearances from 2019-21.  A right-handed hitter, he’s gotten to face lefties a disproportionate amount in that time (34% of his plate appearances), but Davis has handled both lefties and righties well.  It’s worth pointing out that since 2019, Davis’ wRC+ ranks fifth among third basemen, and his work is only a hair behind Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Jose Ramirez.

Aside from health, however, Davis’ defense at both third base and left field has been below-average.  It’s possible he shouldn’t be logging 1,000 innings per year at either position.  On the other hand, we’re likely headed toward a game with 30 DH jobs.  While it’s true that teams generally prefer to use that spot to rotate players these days, the NL DH is undeniably of benefit to a player like Davis.  I’m not sure a contender would install him as a regular third baseman, but the bat certainly plays.

Davis, 29 in April, is projected to earn $2.7MM this year and has three years of control remaining.

10.  Jeff McNeil / 2B-LF-3B-RF / Mets

As the only one who has played second base or right field, McNeil is the most versatile of the three Mets trade candidates listed here.  As such, he’s the least likely to be traded.  In fact, McNeil may end up as the team’s primary starter at second base in 2022.

Still, the Mets felt the need to trade for Javy Baez and play him at second base last summer, and Cano got most of their second base innings in 2019 and ’20.  Escobar is also capable of playing second base.  McNeil could serve in a utility role, but the club does have Luis Guillorme on the roster as well.  It’s not too difficult to picture McNeil being traded, nor would it be surprising if he stays.  Since there is overlap in positions, all three Mets listed here are interconnected.  A trade of one may mean the others are safe.

McNeil started off his Mets career on fire, with a 140 wRC+ in 1,024 plate appearances over 2018-20.  Though that didn’t constitute everyday playing time, he did rank 13th in all of baseball in wRC+ during that period.  A left-handed hitter, McNeil has always beat up on right-handed pitching, but he’s plenty good against southpaws as well.  McNeil is a high-contact hitter, with the game’s tenth-lowest strikeout rate from 2019-21.

Similar to Dominic Smith, McNeil’s bat dropped off late in 2021.  McNeil was placed on the IL in May with a hamstring strain, knocking him out over a month.  He raked in July with a 155 wRC+, but fell to a 68 mark in the season’s final two months.

McNeil doesn’t have a ton of defensive innings at any one position, but his work at second base has been solid and there’s a lot of value in his versatility and bat.  30 in April, McNeil is projected to earn $2.8MM this year and has three years of control remaining.

11.  Willson Contreras / C / Cubs

Contreras wasn’t a heralded prospect until 2016, when he generated buzz before the season and took over the Cubs’ starting catching job.  As a rookie, he was athletic enough to log 180 2/3 innings in left field as well.  Contreras has been an above-average hitter in each of his six seasons, which is especially impressive for a catcher.  Over the last three seasons, his 115 wRC+ ranks second in baseball among all catchers, even ahead of J.T. Realmuto.

Contreras ranked eighth among catchers in the 2021 Fielding Bible Awards, and his pitch framing has improved from earlier in his career.  WAR is always tricky with catchers.  FanGraphs sees Contreras more in the 2-3 WAR range per year, while Baseball-Reference has more 3-4 WAR type seasons on his ledger.

The 29-year-old Contreras is one of the last remaining players from the Cubs’ 2016 championship club, along with Kyle Hendricks, Jason Heyward, and manager David Ross.  The Cubs have been unable or unwilling to extend Contreras, who is set to make around $8.7MM this year before hitting free agency.  Before the lockout, the Cubs signed Yan Gomes to a two-year, $13MM deal, giving the club insurance in the event they decide to trade Contreras.  At least, Contreras seemed to take it that way.

On the other hand, the Cubs struggled last year to find a decent backup catcher, and Gomes could help reduce Contreras’ workload.  The Cubs have also supplemented the 2021 club with the pickups of Marcus Stroman and Wade Miley, so the team has at least some aim on contending.  A Contreras trade is not guaranteed, although it will be a seller’s market for catchers when the lockout ends.  A midseason trade is a possibility as well.  The Yankees, Guardians, Mariners, Rangers, and Giants could be potential suitors.

12.  Sonny Gray / SP / Reds

Gray, 32, was able to increase his strikeout rate significantly after coming over to the Reds from the Yankees in a January 2019 trade.  He made the All-Star team and finished seventh in the NL Cy Young voting in ’19.  His underlying skills haven’t changed a ton since then, but his batting average on balls in play returned to normal and in 2021, more home runs left the yard.

Gray tossed 135 1/3 innings in 2021, spending time on the IL for back spasms, a groin strain, and a rib cage strain.  Still, after a fine July 7th start in Kansas City, Gray had his ERA down to 3.19.  He put up a 5.03 ERA in his final 14 starts to finish the season at 4.19, his worst mark in a Reds uniform.

Gray is under contract for $10MM this year, with a $12MM club option for 2023 that will likely merit consideration.  He seems to represent the clearest path for the Reds to cut payroll; we’ll be addressing rotation-mates Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle in a separate post.

The Reds have shown recently with the Raisel Iglesias trade and Wade Miley waiver claim that under pressure to slash salary, they can give up good players for little to no return.  Quite a few teams are likely eyeing up Gray with this in mind.

13.  Jake Odorizzi / SP / Astros

Last March, with Framber Valdez fracturing a finger on his throwing hand, the Astros made a late deal for Odorizzi.  After signing late, Odorizzi made his Astros debut on April 13th.   Weeks later, he hit the IL with a right pronator muscle strain that knocked him out for over a month.  In September, Odorizzi expressed frustration after being pulled from a start after only 66 pitches.  In the following start, he exited early with a foot injury.  Though he did return in the regular season, Odorizzi was left off the Astros’ ALDS roster.

Heading into 2022, the Astros have seven healthy starting pitchers, and Odorizzi probably ranks last on that depth chart.  32 in March, Odorizzi is owed only $5MM this year.  He has a $6.5MM player option for 2023 with a $3.25MM buyout.

Odorizzi has significant contract incentives for 2022: $500K for 100 innings pitched, and then $1MM each at the 110, 120, 130, 140, and 150 inning marks plus $1.25MM at 160 innings.  You can imagine he won’t be excited to serve as the Astros’ long man to open the season.  The Astros might need to kick in some money or take back a contract, but Odorizzi can still help quite a few teams in the middle or back of their rotation.

14.  Luke Voit / 1B-DH / Yankees

Voit is currently projected to start at first base for the Yankees.  However, there’s a decent chance they’ll seek an upgrade, whether that’s bringing Anthony Rizzo back, trading for Matt Olson, or even signing Freddie Freeman.

Though Voit hasn’t been able to maintain the dizzying heights of 2018 (188 wRC+ in 161 PA) or 2020 (153 wRC+ in 234 PA), the problem has been more health than production.  This year, Voit appeared in only 68 games due to knee surgery, an oblique strain, and a bone bruise and inflammation in his knee.  He had four separate IL stints, but he’s expected to be ready for spring training.

With Giancarlo Stanton signed through 2027, the Yankees might not be a good home for Voit, who might have an easier time staying healthy with regular DH time.  We project Voit to earn $5.4MM this year.  He fits with Dominic Smith and J.D. Davis on the trade market: an interesting bat without an ideal defensive home.

If you’re wondering where a certain player was on this list, don’t worry!  We’ve got all sorts of additional trade candidate posts on the way.

Mets Not Done Upgrading Rotation

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When roster transactions once again fall within the purview of professional baseball teams, the Mets will be on the lookout for another starting pitcher to add to their already-formidable rotation, per Andy Martino of SNY.TV.

Martino specifies that the Mets will absolutely be willing to go the trade route to make that pickup. That certainly tracks with what’s available on the open market. Most of the top free agent hurlers have already signed, and while there are certainly still some viable names on the market – Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Carlos Rodon, to name a few – but the most intriguing long-term options can be found in the trade network.

For starters, the Reds and A’s are two of the teams that seem most willing to deal their current rotation arms. We know Oakland to be in play, and they have lots of offer with Sean Manaea, Frankie Montas, and Chris Bassitt each capable of contributing first-division innings for a contender. If he’s available, Luis Castillo might be the most intriguing name of all, though it remains unclear exactly how available the Reds have made their presumptive ace. Sonny Gray should also be appealing after a 2.4 fWAR season with the Reds in 2021. Gray, like Castillo, remains under team control for two more seasons. Chris Paddack of the Padres could be an interesting arm to inquire after as well. It’s worth noting, of course, that none of these arms figure to come cheap.

The Mets have already added legend Max Scherzer to the rotation, but practically speaking, the upgrade over Marcus Stroman might not prove to be the skeleton key that Mets’ fans hope. It ought to open some doors, for sure, and that’s not to say the upgrade will “come out in the wash,” exactly, but it might not be enough to turn the Mets into instant contenders. Scherzer put up 5.4 fWAR over 179 1/3 innings last year, compared to 3.4 fWAR over 179 innings from Stroman, but there’s at least some age and injury risk for Scherzer, who finished 2021 with a tired arm.

Beyond losing Stroman, the Mets also lost Rich Hill, who contributing a competent 63 1/3 innings with a 3.84 ERA, and Noah Syndergaard, who, despite his name recognition, did not factor into the Mets’ 2021 season in a significant way. Otherwise, they’re starting staff remains intact. Is that a great sign? Mets started ranked 13th in fWAR, 8th in ERA, and 10th in FIP. That’s a good staff, but it also wasn’t enough to get the Mets to the playoffs.

Presuming good health, the Mets have a very strong cohort of veteran starters between Scherzer, 37,  Jacob deGrom, 33, Carlos Carrasco, 35 in March, and Taijuan Walker, 30. Scherzer aside, however, that group has hardly been the most reliable foursome from a health perspective, and they don’t exactly have youth on their side. Carrasco hasn’t made more than 12 starts in a season since 2018, Walker was healthy in 2021 for the first time since 2017, and deGrom made just 15 starts last season. Scherzer has been a workhorse, but Father Time remains undefeated.

Beyond those fours, Tylor Megill took hold of a rotation spot last season with 18 starts and a 4.52 ERA/4.69 FIP across 89 2/3 innings. Those numbers are likely to give the 25-year-old the inside track on a rotation job, but they won’t be enough to guarantee one. Trevor Williams, Sean Reid-Foley, David Peterson, and Jordan Yamamoto make up their depth group at present. Williams has the most rotation experience of the four, but he pitched better out of the bullpen after coming to New York from Chicago, and the Mets could see themselves fit to continue him in that role. On the whole, this group has spent significant time in big league rotations in the aggregate, but not so much so that it would be surprising to see the Mets seek out another arm.

The Mets made one of the biggest splashes of the offseason in signing Scherzer, but their work is far from done. If Mad Max and deGrom make 25-30 starts a piece, the Metropolitans will feel pretty good about their ability to stay in the race. That’s a better Plan A than most teams can muster. But it’s been a long time since Plan A has come to fruition for the New York Mets.

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