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MLB Trade Rumors Podcast: Free Agent Pitching Dark Horses, Padres To Cut Payroll, and If The Angels Should Rebuild

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, pinch-hitting host Mark Polishuk is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

  • MLBTR continues previewing the free agent class, with a focus on which starters and relievers might be flying a bit under the radar as quality signings for 2024 (0:50)
  • The Padres are planning to reduce payroll next season, and could some broader front office changes also be coming? (11:00)
  • After another losing season and with the possible departure of Shohei Ohtani, would the Angels explore rebuilding (and trading Mike Trout) to get the franchise back on track? (15:06)

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Will the Twins re-sign Sonny Gray or Tyler Mahle, and what kind of contracts could each pitcher land in free agency?(23:03)
  • Could the Braves’ pitching injuries short-circuit their postseason chances? (28:48)

Check out our past episodes!

  • Front Office Changes in Boston and New York, and the New Rays Stadium Agreement — listen here
  • Free Agent Class Preview: Catcher and First Base, Germán Márquez Extension and the Dodgers’ Rotation — listen here
  • Waiver Claim Fallout, September Call-Ups and the Biggest Strength of Each Playoff Contender — listen here

Twins Notes: Gray, Maeda, Keuchel, Larnach, Kirilloff, Thielbar

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A five-game losing streak has dropped the Twins’ record to 54-53, and their AL Central lead has shrunk to a half-game advantage over the Guardians.  Caught in an unusual position of both trying to win the division and perhaps reload the roster for a better shot at contending in 2024, the Twins appear to be flexible with their plans heading into the trade deadline, as The Athletic’s Dan Hayes reports that the club is at least listening to offers about starters Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda.  However, “they’d need to be blown away to make a deal that potentially harms their own postseason chances,” Hayes writes, since starting pitching has been such a key plank of the Twins’ success this year.

Reports from earlier this week suggested that Minnesota had at least considered moving Maeda, and that the Twins were getting interest in general about their rotation depth.  Since it would count as a major shock if any of Joe Ryan, Pablo Lopez, and Bailey Ober were traded, pending free agents Gray and Maeda seem like far more viable trade candidates, even if the odds of either moving don’t seem too high.

As Hayes notes, there’s no harm for Minnesota in testing the market for Gray or Maeda, just in case a team desperate for starting pitching is willing to overpay as other options are removed from the board as the deadline approaches.  Re-signing both Gray and Maeda this winter doesn’t seem likely whatsoever, and it seems quite possible that the Twins might let both veteran pitchers walk in free agency.  Ergo, exploring trade opportunities now is a logical tactic, especially if another team is willing to offer the right-handed hitting or bullpen help that the Twins are currently looking to obtain.

Dallas Keuchel has looked great for Triple-A Saint Paul since signing a minor league deal with the Twins back in June, as the former AL Cy Young Award winner has a 1.13 ERA over 32 innings.  Since Keuchel has an opt-out clause in his contract on August 1 (trade deadline day), some kind of decision is coming soon, and Keuchel could be the logical replacement if Minnesota did move Gray or Maeda.  In terms of Keuchel himself as a trade chip, Hayes writes that there is only “minimal interest” from other clubs, which isn’t surprising given how Keuchel’s MLB results have so badly tailed off in the last two seasons.  The southpaw has a 6.35 ERA over 222 2/3 Major League innings since the start of the 2021 campaign, and he has yet to see any big league action in 2023.

Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey said earlier this week that the club’s left-handed hitting outfielders were drawing interest, and Hayes reports that Trevor Larnach in particular has been on the radar of the Mets and Padres.  Larnach is only a couple of years removed from being a top-100 prospect, though he has a modest .223/.315/.380 slash line over 669 career plate appearances.  This lack of performance and a season-ending core muscle surgery in 2022 have kept Larnach from really establishing himself in the majors, not to mention how the Twins’ outfield depth has led to Larnach spending a lot of extra time at Triple-A.

Since Larnach is only 26 and has a limited sample size of MLB experience, it makes sense why the Padres, Mets, and probably several other teams would want to bet on a post-hype breakout.  It’s worth noting that Larnach hadn’t hit very much in Triple-A prior to this season, and even his .234/.363/.431 slash line over 157 PA for Saint Paul in 2023 is only decent, rather than a clear sign that Larnach has nothing more to prove in the minors.

With the Mets already looking ahead to 2024, a hypothetical New York/Minnesota trade package could include a right-handed hitting outfielder like Tommy Pham or Mark Canha, or reliever Brooks Raley.  All would essentially be rental pickups, though Canha and Raley are controllable through club options for the 2024 season.  Raley has pitched well enough that his $6.5MM club option ($1MM buyout) looks like a good bet to be exercise by the Mets, Twins, or whatever team might own his rights after the deadline.

Of course, injuries can always change the equation for any team as the deadline approaches, and the Twins placed Alex Kirilloff on the 10-day injured list today due to a right shoulder strain.  Caleb Thielbar was activated from the 15-day IL in the corresponding move, with the left-hander returning after missing close to two months with an oblique strain.  This came on the heels of a previous IL stint due to another oblique problem, resulting in Thielbar making only one big league appearance since May 6.

Kirilloff has been trying to play through the injury for several days, as manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters (including Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune) that Kirilloff was hurt diving for a ball.  Kirilloff is “just not able to swing the bat right now because he’s feeling some weakness in his shoulder,” Baldelli said, so the decision was made to put the first baseman on the IL for a full rest.

Wrist problems have plagued Kirilloff in the past, and his recovery from a wrist surgery last year delayed his 2023 debut until May 6.  Finally healthy and given an extended chance to play, Kirilloff looked to be having a bit of a breakout season, with a very solid 124 wRC+ to show from his .270/.357/.442 slash line over 258 plate appearances while mostly playing as Minnesota’s regular first baseman.  Donovan Solano and Joey Gallo are likely to be platooned at first base while Kirilloff is out, and if the Twins get any indication over the next two days that Kirilloff might be facing an extended absence, first base help might be added to the club’s deadline checklist.

MLB Announces 2023 All-Star Rosters

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The starters for the 2023 All-Star Game were already announced earlier this week, and today the league revealed the reserve selections and the pitching staffs for the National League and American League teams.  Fan balloting determined the game’s starters, while the reserves and pitchers were picked by a combination of the player ballot and selections from the league office.

This won’t be the final list of players involved, as some more substitutions will be announced later for players who are injured or who have opted not to participate.  Every team must have at least one player represented at the Midsummer Classic, and the starting pitchers for the game will be announced on July 10.

Of note, Shohei Ohtani will be in the game as both a DH and as a pitcher for the third consecutive season.  The Braves led all teams with eight All-Stars, while the Rangers weren’t far behind with six players chosen.  This year’s All-Star Game takes place in Seattle on July 11.

National League

American League

MLB Trade Rumors Podcast: Athletics Move, Twins Rotation, Reynolds Extension

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Episode 4 of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Simon Hampton is joined by Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press to discuss:

  • Oakland’s move to Las Vegas took a big step forward, so Betsy, who covered baseball for the Las Vegas Review-Journal, tells us about Vegas as a baseball city (1:35)
  • The Twins are off to a solid start to the season and Joey Gallo is hitting very well, so is he back? (5:24)
  • Minnesota is set to lose Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle and Kenta Maeda to free agency this winter, so after the Pablo Lopez extension Betsy offers her thoughts on whether or not there’ll be any more rotation extensions for the Twins (7:26)

Plus, MLBTR’s Anthony Franco joins to talk:

  • Bryan Reynolds has agreed to an eight-year, $106.75MM extension with the Pirates – is this a good deal for the team? (15:01)
  • Madison Bumgarner has been designated for assignment by the Diamondbacks and looks headed for free agency; will he find a new team? (24:57)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Twins Drawing Trade Interest On Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda

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The Twins have received interest from other clubs in starting pitchers Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda, reports Dan Hayes of the Athletic. It’s not clear how open Minnesota is to moving either player, although it stands to reason they’d at least gauge the market and see if another club were willing to bowl them over with an offer.

It’s unsurprising other teams would eye the pair of Minnesota righties, both of whom have established track records as productive MLB starters. Gray would be the more appealing of the duo, as Maeda didn’t pitch in 2022 recovering from Tommy John surgery he underwent in September ’21. Gray dealt with a few health issues himself, missing time with a pair of strains in his right hamstring and a pectoral strain. Around the trio of injured list stints, the righty pitched well, though.

Acquired from the Reds in Spring Training, Gray made 24 starts during his first season in Minnesota. He posted a 3.08 ERA across 119 2/3 innings, fanning an above-average 24% of opponents against an average 7.4% walk rate. Gray’s 44.5% ground-ball percentage was a personal low, but it was still a bit better than par. At his best, the two-time All-Star generates a rare combination of whiffs and grounders. He hasn’t reached 30 starts in either of the past two seasons, but Gray’s an upper mid-rotation caliber arm when he’s healthy.

At year’s end, Minnesota made the easy call to exercise a $12.5MM option on his services. He’s slated to return to the Twin Cities for what’ll be his age-33 campaign before hitting the open market for the first time.

Maeda is also down to his final year under contract, with his salary to be determined by his health. The righty is headed into the final season of the eight-year deal he initially inked with the Dodgers coming off from Japan. That deal was layered with innings-based incentives, as the Dodgers expressed concerns about Maeda’s medical evaluation at the time.

The 34-year-old is due a $3MM base salary, and he’ll lock in a $150K bonus for being on the Opening Day roster. Maeda can earn an additional $10MM annually in incentives. He’d pick up $1MM each for reaching 15 and 20 starts, and $1.5MM apiece at 25, 30 and 32 starts; he can tack on up to $3.5MM based on his innings totals between 90 and 200 frames in a season, and he’d receive a $1MM assignment bonus in the event of a trade.

While there’s a chance for Maeda to earn more than Gray does next season, that’d only be in the event of his staying healthy after a lost season. If his elbow holds up and he regains his pre-surgery form, the 6’1″ hurler would be a nice addition to the middle of a starting staff. Maeda was brilliant in the shortened 2020 season, securing a second-place finish in AL Cy Young balloting with a 2.70 ERA in 11 starts. He struggled to a 4.66 mark in 21 appearances the next year, but his strikeout and walk rates remained strong. Since coming off from the Dodgers during the 2020-21 offseason, Maeda has provided the Twins 173 frames of 3.90 ERA ball with a 27.5% strikeout percentage.

It’s worth reiterating that while there’s no harm for other teams in reaching out to president of baseball operations Derek Falvey and his staff, Minnesota isn’t under any pressure to deal either pitcher. They’re both a year from free agency, but the Twins are generally expected to make another run at competing in 2023. Minnesota has had two straight disappointing seasons, and they’ll now have to overcome the free agent loss of Carlos Correa. Yet the Twins have ample payroll room, with a projected 2023 payroll nearly $30MM south of this past season’s Opening Day mark.

The Twins have been tied to each of the top two remaining free agents, Dansby Swanson and Carlos Rodón. They could fit either player into the long-term budget without subtracting anyone from the existing roster, and landing either would signal a firm commitment to trying to compete in the American League’s weakest division. Still, the Twins have also shown at least some willingness to shuffle up their MLB roster. They’ve reportedly given some consideration to moving defending AL batting champion Luis Arraez if it nets them major league help elsewhere, and they could explore a similar path with right fielder Max Kepler.

As things stand, Gray and Maeda are set to feature in an Opening Day rotation that’ll include Tyler Mahle, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober. Prospects Simeon Woods Richardson and Josh Winder are on hand as depth options, as are Cole Sands and Louie Varland. Minnesota could welcome Chris Paddack back in the season’s final two months if his recovery from a second career Tommy John surgery goes according to plan. There’s enough health uncertainty the Twins could choose to stockpile their rotation depth, though the presence of a few interesting younger options at least gives the front office alternatives if they were to ponder making Gray or Maeda available.

Twins Decline Options On Bundy, Archer, Sano

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The Twins announced this afternoon they’ve declined their respective options on Dylan Bundy, Chris Archer and Miguel Sanó. Minnesota also confirmed the previously-reported decision to exercise their option to retain starter Sonny Gray. None of those come as a surprise, as they were each easy calls for the Minnesota front office.

Bundy signed a $5MM guarantee last offseason, with the Twins rolling the dice he’d bounce back after an injury-plagued 2021 campaign in Anaheim. The deal came with an $11MM club option for 2023, giving them some extra contractual upside if Bundy righted the ship in the Twin Cities. The right-hander did stay healthy enough to take the ball 29 times and soak up 140 innings, but he didn’t put up the kind of numbers the front office had envisioned. Bundy managed only a 4.89 ERA with a well below-average 15.8% strikeout rate and a modest 9.7% swinging strike rate. He demonstrated excellent control, walking fewer than 5% of opponents,  but he didn’t miss many bats and surrendered 24 home runs (1.54 per nine innings).

A former fourth overall pick and top pitching prospect, Bundy has seen his velocity trend downwards as he’s battled injury concerns throughout his career. He averaged only 89 MPH on his four-seam this year, the first time his already pedestrian fastball has dipped below 90 MPH on average. Bundy, who turns 30 later this month, will collect a $1MM buyout and head back to free agency. He’s likely looking at one-year offers as a depth arm again, and it’s possible his next deal will come with a lower base salary than this’s year $4MM figure.

Archer was also an offseason signee, joining Bundy as part of Minnesota’s efforts to bolster the back of its rotation. He inked an incentive-laden deal that guaranteed him a $2.75MM base salary and a $750K buyout on a 2023 option. He tacked on $3MM in incentives by making 25 starts this year, bringing Minnesota’s ultimate outlay to $6.5MM. Rather than trigger their end of a $10MM mutual option for next season, Minnesota sends the two-time All-Star back to the open market.

The 34-year-old posted a 4.56 ERA across 102 2/3 innings as Twin. That was his biggest workload since 2019, but Archer still had a pair of injured list stints due to hip and pectoral issues. When healthy, he posted a below-average 19.2% strikeout rate and walked batters at an elevated 11% clip. The righty still averaged 93 MPH on his heater, but this year’s 9.5% swinging strike percentage was his lowest mark since 2014.

Sanó, meanwhile, hits free agency for the first time in his career. Today’s move, while without suspense, looks as if it’ll officially close the books on his 13-year tenure in the organization. A high-profile amateur signee out of the Dominican Republic and subsequently one of the best prospects in the game, Sanó made his big league debut in 2015. He hit the ground running against MLB pitching, showcasing the massive raw power and lofty walk totals but huge strikeout rates that’d define his entire tenure in Minnesota.

The burly slugger looked capable of carrying a lineup at his best, including a .247/.346/.576, 34-homer showing in only 105 games in 2019. That earned Sanó a $30MM extension the following offseason, but that proved to be a misstep for the Twins. He posted only slightly above-average offensive numbers from 2020-21 and had an almost completely lost 2022 campaign. Sanó played in 20 games this year, putting up an .083/.211/.133 line in 71 plate appearances while battling persistent knee issues. The 29-year-old returned briefly from early-season knee surgery but spent the last two months on the IL.

Minnesota makes the easy call to pay Sanó a $3MM buyout rather than trigger a $14MM option on his services. He hits the market as a buy-low option for teams seeking first base help, with his huge power sure to get him some attention from another club.

Twins To Pick Up Sonny Gray’s Team Option

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The Twins plan to pick up starter Sonny Gray’s $12.7MM team option for the 2023 season, per Jon Heyman of the NY Post.

Acquired at the start of the 2022 season from the Reds, Gray has been a solid presence in the Twins’ rotation. Across 24 starts (119 2/3 innings) the veteran right-hander pitched to a 3.08 ERA with a 24% strikeout rate, 7.4% walk rate, and 44.1% groundball rate.

However, Gray has been burdened by injuries in recent years, pitching over 140 innings in only two of his last six seasons, excluding the shortened 2022 season. In 2022, the righty spent time on the 10-day and 15-day IL with a right hamstring strain and a right pectoral strain, respectively. Additionally, Gray averaged just under five innings per start in 2022.

Nevertheless, when healthy, Gray has been a strong presence in the Twins’ rotation. In the second half of the season, the veteran pitched to an impressive 2.38 ERA in 56 2/3 innings. During this time, opposing batters hit a meager .212/.286/.335 against him.

As noted in MLBTR’s Offseason Outlook, Twins starters ranked 20th in the Majors with a 4.11 ERA and 27th with 782 2/3 innings in 2022. With Joe Ryan and Tyler Mahle returning, along with Kenta Maeda who spent the 2022 season recovering from Tommy John surgery, the Twins have a formidable quartet of quality starters as they look to return to the top of the AL Central.

Twins Place Sonny Gray On IL With Hamstring Strain

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The Twins announced that they have placed right-hander Sonny Gray on the 15-day injured list due to a right hamstring strain. His roster spot will go to fellow righty Trevor Megill, who has been reinstated from the COVID IL. Additionally, righty Dereck Rodriguez, who was designated for assignment on the weekend, has cleared waivers and been outrighted to Triple-A.

Gray, 32, started yesterday’s game against the Guardians but was pulled after throwing just 44 pitches in two innings. Though Gray could technically return on the last day of the season, October 5, it’s quite likely that this will conclude his 2022 campaign.

Acquired from the Reds in a March trade, Gray was very good when healthy enough to take the mound. He made two other trips to the IL, one for a hamstring strain in April and another for a pectoral strain in June. Around those injuries, he made 24 starts and threw 119 2/3 innings with a 3.08 ERA, 24% strikeout rate, 7.4% walk rate and 44.5% ground ball rate.

That has sort of been the story for the Twins as a whole as well, as they seemed to be the best team in the AL Central for much of the year until mounting injuries dragged them down. They had a lead as big as 5.5 games in late May, but have since slid down to third place, seven games back of the Guardians and three behind the White Sox. Given that their postseason chances are effectively gone at this point, it makes logical sense to let Gray put his feet up for the next little bit as opposed to taking a chance on making his injury worse. Gray joins 17 of his teammates on the IL, bringing the club’s total to 18.

Minnesota’s rotation is now left with Joe Ryan, Dylan Bundy, Bailey Ober and Josh Winder, leaving one spot to be filled. It’s possible that rookie Ronny Henriquez, who threw 73 pitches after Gray’s departure yesterday, could just step in, though that remains to be seen.

Gray is in the final guaranteed season of the extension he signed with the Reds back in 2019, though there’s a $13.1MM club option for 2023. That’s a bargain price for a pitcher of Gray’s caliber, making it a fairly easy decision for the Twins to exercise it and bring him back for 2023.

Twins Place Tyler Mahle On 15-Day Injured List

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In his first start back from the injured list, Tyler Mahle lasted only two innings before leaving last night’s game due to inflammation in his right shoulder.  As a result, Mahle has been returned to the 15-day IL, with left-hander Jovani Moran recalled from Triple-A.  Moran was only optioned to Triple-A yesterday as the corresponding move for Mahle’s activation.

Shoulder inflammation was responsible for Mahle’s previous IL stint, and he also missed three weeks in July due to a right shoulder strain.  Since July 3, Mahle has appeared in only six games and tossed 28 1/3 innings, with his last four starts coming with Minnesota after being acquired by the Reds at the trade deadline.

The Twins hoped that Mahle would be a big boost to the rotation down the stretch, and he did at least contribute a 2.51 ERA over his first three outings in a Minnesota uniform (with the Twins winning all three of those games).  However, given the recurring nature of his shoulder problems, it is fair to wonder if Mahle’s season could be in jeopardy.

Twins manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters (including MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Park) yesterday that Mahle was slated to undergo more examinations today, and implied that another IL stint was forthcoming, “What that means going forward?  No one knows the answer to that yet.  I’m not closing the book on him, this season, pitching for us,” Baldelli said.

As Park noted, Mahle’s start yesterday bore several similarities to the August 17 start that preceded his last IL visit.  In both outings, Mahle’s velocity was down, and he threw only 37 pitches.  The difference was that on August 17, Mahle still managed to hold the Royals scoreless in 2 1/3 innings, whereas the White Sox scored four runs in Mahle’s two innings yesterday en route to a 13-0 Chicago victory.

That loss dropped the Twins to 6-9 over their last 15 games.  Despite a losing record (37-43) since the start of June, Minnesota remains only one game back of the Guardians for the AL Central lead, with the White Sox a game behind in third place.  The division title may be the Twins’ best path to the postseason, as the Twins have fallen five games back of the last wild card berth.

Getting to the playoffs will be more difficult without Mahle, who is now the 17th player on the Twins’ extensive injured list.  This list includes several notable regulars (i.e. Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco, Ryan Jeffers, Trevor Larnach) who are tentatively expected to return in September, but the Twins can hardly afford to be without such key personnel for so long.

Sonny Gray is also a question mark after leaving his start on Friday due to hamstring tightness, as Baldelli said Gray would have to throw a bullpen session and pass other tests before being allowed to make his next start.  Gray is tentatively slated to start for Minnesota on Wednesday against the Yankees, but if he can’t pitch, that leaves the rotation even more short-handed.

Forecasting The 2022-23 Qualifying Offers: Pitchers

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Yesterday, we took a look at the pending free agent position players who could be candidates to receive a qualifying offer this winter.  Now, let’s turn our attention to what free agent pitchers might be in line for a QO, with the caveat that players can only receive one qualifying offer in their careers, and a player must spend the entire 2022 season with his team to be eligible.

Easy Calls: Chris Bassitt (Mets), Jacob deGrom (Mets), Edwin Diaz (Mets), Nathan Eovaldi (Red Sox), Carlos Rodon (Giants)

DeGrom has already said that he is opting out of the final guaranteed season of his contract, leaving $30.5MM on the table in 2023 to seek out a longer-term pact.  Rodon is also sure to opt out of the final year (and $22.5MM) of his two-year contact with San Francisco, as Rodon earned his opt-out by triggering a vesting option at the 110-innings threshold.

Even with Eovaldi’s injury history, retaining him for one year at roughly $19MM seems like a pretty good outcome for the Red Sox, particularly given all the other question marks in Boston’s rotation.  So there’s little risk for the Sox in issuing Eovaldi a QO, though it would seem like Eovaldi will probably reject it.

Face-of-the-Franchise Veterans: Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers), Adam Wainwright (Cardinals)

With Kershaw considering retirement last winter, the Dodgers opted against issuing him a qualifying offer as a free agent, as a nod towards giving the longtime ace all the time he needed to make a decision on his future.  It stands to reason that the Dodgers will take the same path this winter, unless Kershaw gives them advance notice of his plans for 2023….though in that scenario, the two sides might just work out an extension before free agency even officially opens.

The same could be true of Wainwright, who has signed one-year contracts to rejoin the Cardinals in each of the last four offseasons.  In three of those cases, Wainwright inked his new deal either just after the start of the free agent period or before it altogether, so it’s safe to assume the two sides will work out a new pact without the QO coming into play.  Of course, this assumes that Wainwright will come back for an 18th Major League season, but even as his 41st birthday approaches, the right-hander is still going strong.

Easy Contract-Option Calls: Carlos Carrasco (Mets), Sonny Gray (Twins), Aaron Nola (Phillies)

These starters could be free agents if their club options are declined, and thus are technically qualifying-offer candidates.  However, the trio are all virtual locks to have their options exercised, and their respective options are all worth less than the projected cost of the qualifying offer.

Borderline Cases: Tyler Anderson (Dodgers), Mike Clevinger (Padres), Zach Eflin (Phillies), Sean Manaea (Padres), Martin Perez (Rangers), Jameson Taillon (Yankees), Taijuan Walker (Mets)

Walker is yet another Mets entry on this list, as he is very likely to decline his $6MM player option for 2023 and instead take a $3MM buyout into free agency.  Advanced metrics paint a less-flattering picture of Walker’s performance than his bottom-line numbers, and he has battled both injury and consistency problems over his career, though Walker has been relatively healthy in his two seasons in New York.  It would seem likely that the Mets will issue Walker a QO, and 2022 has been enough of a platform year for the righty that he will probably turn the qualifying offer down.

The Padres are another team with multiple QO candidates, as while Joe Musgrove was kept off the open market with a $100MM extension, Manaea and Clevinger remain.  Due in part to two particularly disastrous outings against the Dodgers, Manaea’s ERA is an ungainly 4.76 over 119 innings.  Clevinger has a solid 3.47 ERA in his return from Tommy John surgery, but that is only over 70 innings, due to both his TJ rehab as well as a triceps strain and a week on the COVID-related IL.

Right now, Manaea and Clevinger could possibly be candidates to accept a qualifying offer, if they don’t feel they have enough of a platform to maximize their free agent market.  Solid performances over the final month and a half of the season would make it an easier decision for either pitcher to reject a QO, and easier for the Padres to decide whether or not to issue the offers.  San Diego could be facing a third consecutive year of luxury-tax overage in 2023, especially if Manaea and/or Clevinger are on the books for a $19MM-ish salary.

Eflin is another player who needs to post some solid numbers down the stretch, but first and foremost, the Philadelphia right-hander just needs to get healthy.  Eflin has been on the IL since late June due to a kneecap bruise, and his continued knee soreness is a red flag for a pitcher who has undergone multiple knee surgeries in the past.  When healthy, Eflin has been a quietly solid pitcher for the Phillies over the last five seasons, yet his lingering knee problems are certainly a concern.  There is the interesting wrinkle of a $15MM mutual option between Eflin and the Phils for 2023, and while mutual options are rarely exercised by both parties, this could be a rare situation where it would make sense for both the player and the team.  Paying $15MM for Eflin would also represent some risk for the Phillies, but it would be less than the value of a qualifying offer.

After a great start to the season, Taillon’s numbers have come back to earth a bit, with a 3.95 ERA over 120 2/3 innings.  A below-average strikeout pitcher, Taillon has relied on excellent control and spin rates on his fastball and curve to limit damage, and he also doesn’t allow too much hard contact.  Perhaps most importantly given Taillon’s injury history, he has been healthy in 2022, which should make offseason suitors more open to giving him a longer-term contract.  For now, it seems probable that the Yankees would issue Taillon a QO rather than let him potentially walk away for nothing in free agency.

The idea of Anderson or Perez as QO candidates would’ve seemed quite farfetched heading into the season, yet the two veteran left-handers are each enjoying career years that resulted in All-Star appearances.  Their underwhelming career histories could prevent the Dodgers and Rangers from issuing qualifying offers, since either pitcher would likely take the big payday, and $19MM is a lot to invest in basically one season of evidence (even for a Dodgers team that is comfortable blowing past luxury tax thresholds).

However, it would certainly make sense for either club to pursue re-signings, even if a qualifying offer isn’t involved.  The Rangers have already been vocal about their desire to retain Perez, so it is quite possible he signs an extension before even hitting the open market.

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