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Orioles Pursuing Prominent Pitching Upgrades, Open To Signing Qualifying Offer Recipients

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On the heels of a disappointing 2025 season, Orioles president of baseball operations Mike Elias is striking a much more aggressive tenor in his early media appearances this offseason than last. Baltimore’s baseball ops leader candidly acknowledged this week that he’s hopeful of adding a starter who can give his team “innings and front-half-of-the-rotation stuff” as well as a reliever “who has closer experience” (links via Andy Kostka of the Baltimore Banner and Jake Rill of MLB.com. Just as notably, Elias voiced that he is “fully prepared” to forfeit draft pick(s) to sign free agents who have rejected a qualifying offer.

It’s a notable departure from Baltimore’s 2024-25 offseason. The O’s made a multi-year offer to Corbin Burnes that wasn’t accepted. It’s not clear how many — if any — other free agents received multi-year offers from the Orioles.

Ultimately, Elias & Co. handed out almost exclusively one-year deals, signing Charlie Morton ($15MM), Tomoyuki Sugano ($13MM), Andrew Kittredge ($10MM), Gary Sanchez ($8.5MM), Ramon Laureano ($4MM) and Dylan Carlson ($975K) for the 2025 season. Outfielder Tyler O’Neill was the lone recipient of a multi-year guarantee, landing three years and $49.5MM. Even that deal came with an opt-out opportunity following the 2025 season.

O’Neill was not only the lone multi-year free agent signing for the Orioles last winter — he’s the only free agent Elias has signed to a multi-year deal in seven offseasons leading Baltimore’s baseball operations. For much of that time, the team has been rebuilding, which helps to explain the lack of a multi-year investment. Elias told Darragh McDonald in a recent guest appearance on the MLBTR Podcast that there’s no organizational aversion to multi-year free agent deals, they simply haven’t lined up on one during his tenure.

At least based on his early comments, Elias seems more resolute in his efforts to pursue higher-end talent. The O’s have a pair of notable arms in Kyle Bradish and the resurgent Trevor Rogers atop their rotation, but Rogers is a free agent next winter and Bradish only returned from Tommy John surgery this past summer. Voicing a preference to sign someone who can pitch in the “front half” of the rotation and expressing a willingness to punt draft picks both signal a more aggressive playbook this winter.

On the free agent side of things, the market has several interesting names. Dylan Cease, Framber Valdez, Ranger Suarez, Michael King, Brandon Woodruff and Zac Gallen all received qualifying offers. None are expected to accept. NPB star Tatsuya Imai will also be posted for MLB clubs, adding a 28-year-old wild card to the mix. Notably, Elias was the Astros’ scouting director when the team signed Valdez as an amateur in 2016. The two overlapped in Houston’s organization for a couple years.

On the trade side of the coin, there are a number of high-profile arms likely to be available. Much as it pains fans of pitching-hungry clubs, there’s minimal chance the Tigers will trade Tarik Skubal. The Brewers seem inclined to hang onto Freddy Peralta. Twins president Derek Falvey has said he plans to add to the roster until he’s told otherwise, which casts some doubt on the immediate availability of Joe Ryan and/or Pablo Lopez. But the market still includes names like MacKenzie Gore, Sonny Gray, Sandy Alcantara, Edward Cabrera and Mitch Keller, among others.

Broadly speaking, whether it’s via free agency or trade, there’s benefit in the Orioles adding a starter who’s controlled/signed beyond 2026. Rogers, as mentioned, is a free agent next winter. Righties Dean Kremer and Tyler Wells will be free agents after the 2027 season. There’s little doubting the pure talent of righty Grayson Rodriguez, but by the time Opening Day 2026 rolls around, he’ll be 20 months removed from pitching in a big league game. There’s very little long-term stability in the group.

As for the relief market, the number of qualified free agents is far lower. Devin Williams didn’t receive a QO from the Yankees. Robert Suarez didn’t get one from the Padres. Edwin Diaz was the only reliever tagged with a QO. That said, there are a number of a high-profile names from which to choose. Diaz, Suarez, Williams, Ryan Helsley, Raisel Iglesias, Kyle Finnegan and Pete Fairbanks all have extensive closing experience in the majors. If the preference is a one-year deal, 38-year-old Kenley Jansen keeps getting the job done even as he inches closer to his 40th birthday.

Whoever ends up emerging as the priority, payroll shouldn’t be an issue. The only players guaranteed anything beyond the 2026 season are O’Neill and catcher Samuel Basallo, who inked a long-term extension just days after making his MLB debut. They’re owed a combined $17.5MM in 2027. After ’27, Basallo’s eight-year, $67MM deal is the only contract on the books. It’d be a surprise to see the Orioles sign a high-end starter and a prominent reliever to multi-year deals, but only because they haven’t operated that way in quite some time. Payroll-wise, there’s no reason they couldn’t bring in a pair of prominent free agents.

Elias also suggested that the O’s will be on the lookout for an additional option in center field. While he praised Colton Cowser’s long-term outlook and expressed confidence that the 25-year-old (26 next March) can handle the position defensively, Baltimore’s president also noted that “you can’t get through the year with one center fielder.”

A reunion with Cedric Mullins seems unlikely, as he’ll presumably want everyday at-bats (or close to it) wherever he goes, while the O’s have O’Neill, Cowser and Dylan Beavers already in the mix for playing time, to say nothing of recently signed Leody Taveras and former top prospect Heston Kjerstad. Enrique Bradfield Jr., the No. 17 overall pick in 2023 and one of the system’s top prospects, reached Triple-A last year and could debut in 2026.

Part-time center field options on the market could include Lane Thomas, Harrison Bader or Chas McCormick, whom Elias drafted with the Astros back in 2017. Trade possibilities could include Arizona’s Alek Thomas or Colorado’s Brenton Doyle. If Twins ownership winds up pushing the front office to further scale back payroll, then not only would Lopez and Ryan be available — Byron Buxton may even be amenable to waiving his no-trade clause.

As always, this is far from an exhaustive list of targets for the Orioles or possibilities to fill those needs. In all likelihood, the O’s will be looking for multiple relievers, additional bench pieces and ample minor league depth in both the rotation and bullpen (at the very least). There’s been some suggestion that they could pursue a more prominent bat to hit in the middle of the lineup. The New York Post’s Jon Heyman called them a dark horse for Pete Alonso, noting that there’s “some interest” from the O’s. Be that as it may, it’d be a surprise if they did anything more than lurk on the periphery of his market to offer a soft landing if Alonso again struggles to find a long-term deal this winter.

13 Players Receive Qualifying Offers

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Thirteen players have received a qualifying offer this year, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. The list is as follows:

This year’s QO is valued at $22.025MM. All 13 players will have until Nov. 18 to decide whether to accept that one-year offer or decline and become a free agent. They can spend that time gauging the open market to determine interest in their services. If a player accepts the QO, he’ll be treated as a free agent signing and thus will be ineligible to be traded without his consent until June 15 of next year. If he declines, any team that signs him will be subject to draft and/or international bonus forfeitures, depending on its revenue-sharing and luxury tax status.

The bulk of the list was generally expected. Every recipient other than Torres and Imanaga was pegged as likely or a no-doubter to receive the QO on MLBTR’s annual lists of qualifying offer previews for position players and for pitchers. Torres was viewed as something of a long shot, at least on the MLBTR staff. He’s coming off a nice season in Detroit but struggled through a poor finish — perhaps in part due to injury — and wasn’t hit with a QO last offseason when coming off a comparable year at the plate in the Bronx.

Imanaga was listed as a borderline call on our preview as well. The Cubs declined a three-year, $57.75MM option on Imanaga last week. He subsequently declined a $15.25MM player option (which came with an additional player option at $15.25MM) — effectively opting out of a remaining two years and $30.5MM. The Cubs are banking on Imanaga also turning away one year at just over $22MM after turning down that remaining $30.5MM in guaranteed money.

The qualifying offer is determined each year by taking the average of the game’s 125 highest-paid players. We’ve already covered the penalties that each team would face for signing a qualified free agent, as well as the compensation each club would get for losing a qualified free agent to another team.

Among the notable free agents to not receive a qualifying offer are Lucas Giolito, Robert Suarez, Devin Williams and Jorge Polanco. Giolito might have received one had it not been for a late elbow issue that ended his season. Suarez has been excellent and just opted out of the remaining two years and $16MM on his contract, but he’ll be 35 next year. The Padres have been reducing payroll in recent seasons and likely didn’t want to risk Suarez locking in that weighty one-year sum. Williams would have received a QO with a typical season, but he struggled throughout much of the season’s first four months before a dominant finish. Polanco enjoyed a terrific rebound campaign but is 32 years old and was limited to DH work for much of the season due to ongoing injury issues.

The qualifying offer grants each of these free agents the chance at a notable one-year payday, though the majority of them will reject without much thought. Players like Tucker, Bichette, Schwarber, Valdez, Cease, Suarez and Diaz are likely to see comparable or larger (much larger, in Tucker’s case) salaries on multi-year deals in free agency. Even players like Grisham, who probably won’t land a $22MM annual value over multiple years, are still likely to reject. Major league free agents typically — though not always — prioritize long-term earning over short-term, higher-AAV pacts. A three- or four-year deal worth $14-16MM per year, for instance, is typically viewed as preferable to accepting one year at a higher rate.

There’s risk in declining the offer, of course. Teams are more reluctant to sign players who’ll cost them valuable draft picks and/or notable portions of their hard-capped bonus pool for international amateurs. Every offseason, there are a handful of free agents whose markets are weighed down by the burden of draft pick compensation. That typically applies to the “lower end” of the QO recipients. For top stars like Tucker, Bichette, etc. — draft/international forfeitures are simply considered the cost of doing business and don’t tend to have much (if any) impact on the player’s earning power.

Phillies Notes: Schwarber, Realmuto, Suarez

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The Phillies are keeping manager Rob Thomson in place for the 2026 season, but there are still some potentially notable changes coming to the roster. Kyle Schwarber, Ranger Suarez and J.T. Realmuto are among the team’s most notable free agents. Zack Wheeler’s health outlook is a question mark after he required thoracic outlet surgery. With Suarez and Wheeler’s status uncertain at best and Aaron Nola coming off an ERA north of 6.00, Philadelphia’s rotation isn’t the typical powerhouse to which we’ve become accustomed in recent seasons.

First and foremost, it sounds as though retaining Schwarber will be one of the top’s top priorities — if not the very top item on president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski’s to-do list. Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer writes that executives with other clubs expect owner John Middleton to do whatever it takes to keep Schwarber in the City of Brotherly Love. Matt Gelb of The Athletic suggests that Schwarber, who’ll turn 33 next spring, is planning to seek a five-year contract in free agency.

That’d be unheard of for a designated hitter at his age, but Schwarber’s 2025 season was the best of his career. He clubbed an NL-best 56 home runs en route to a .240/.365/.563 slash. Schwarber topped the century mark in both runs scores and runs driven in for a third consecutive season.

Schwarber’s 14.9% walk rate was 6.5 percentage points higher than the 8.4% league average, and while Schwarber’s 27.2% strikeout rate was also considerably higher than average (22.2%), it was also his lowest since 2021. The NL home run leader has also made immense gains against left-handed pitching in recent seasons, shedding platoon concerns that followed him earlier in his career. Schwarber was actually better against lefties than righties, hitting same-handed opponents at a .252/.366/.598 against clip.

If one were to set MLBTR’s Contract Tracker to show the number of position players commanding a five-year free agent deal beginning in their age-33 season, well … there aren’t any. In fact, the only free agent hitters in the past decade to sign even a four-year deal beginning at age 33 or later are Ben Zobrist ($56MM), Starling Marte ($78MM) and Josh Donaldson ($92MM). All are at least four years old now (10, in Zobrist’s case), and Schwarber is coming off such a prodigious offensive showing that he should top all of them with ease.

Gelb also suggests that Realmuto is expected to seek a three-year deal — a hefty ask considering he’ll turn 35 next spring. Again, looking to our Contract Tracker to find catchers who signed for three or more guaranteed years beginning with their age-35 season (or older) reveals only two: Carlos Ruiz’s three-year, $26MM deal to return to the Phillies all the way back in 2013 and Yadier Molina’s three-year, $60MM extension back in 2017.

Realmuto showed in 2025 that there’s still plenty left in the tank, but his days as a premium all-around catcher also look to be in the past. His .257/.315/.384 batting line was 6% worse than league-average, by measure of wRC+, but still checked in a bit better than that of the average catcher, specifically. He’s still plus when it comes to controlling the run game (29.7% caught-stealing rate), but Realmuto has now registered negative blocking grades (according to Statcast) in consecutive seasons and has seen his once-vaunted framing grades decline sharply.

The market offers little in the way of starting-caliber catchers, which could work to Realmuto’s benefit. Victor Caratini and Danny Jansen are arguably the most notable alternatives on the open market. The former has posted nice rate stats in the batter’s box but has primarily operated as a backup. The latter has now had back-to-back poor seasons at the plate. Potential non-tenders (e.g. Jonah Heim, Joey Bart) could add some change-of-scenery candidates to the list of options, and the trade market will surely offer a few names to ponder (e.g. Ryan Jeffers, Jake Rogers, Ivan Herrera).

Turning to Suarez, he made no secret of his hope to remain in Philadelphia. MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki writes that the left-hander was among the last players to leave the clubhouse after the 2025 season ended. He told reporters at the time: “I don’t want it to be the last year with the team.”

The 30-year-old Suarez has been a rock in the Philly rotation, averaging 26 starts per season across the past four years and pitching to a 3.59 ERA in that time. He’s been even better in the playoffs, with a sub-2.00 ERA in his postseason career. Suarez doesn’t throw especially hard, sitting 91-92 mph with his sinker, but he still consistently posts better-than-average strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates.

As it stands, the Phillies’ rotation will include Nola, Cristopher Sanchez and Jesus Luzardo. The team hasn’t yet provided a timetable for Wheeler’s recovery from his thoracic outlet procedure. Taijuan Walker is signed for $18MM in 2026, but the Phillies would probably welcome the opportunity to shed the some or all of that remaining sum. Top prospect Andrew Painter could make his long-awaited debut next year, but he posted uneven minor league results in his return from Tommy John surgery. Mick Abel was traded to the Twins in the Jhoan Duran swap.

Retaining Suarez would go a long way toward solidifying a rotation with an atypical number of red flags, but the Phillies already project for a nearly $228MM payroll before making any additions or bringing back any potential free agents (via RosterResource). It’s hard to imagine them keeping all three of those prominent impending free agents — particularly when there are other needs elsewhere on the roster.

Phillies Moving Taijuan Walker To Bullpen

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After activating southpaw Ranger Suarez from the 15-day injured list earlier today, the Phillies are making a change to their rotation mix to get back down to five starters. As manager Rob Thomson told reporters, including Lochlan March of the Philly Inquirer, that means a move to the bullpen for right-hander Taijuan Walker. Thomson did not rule out the possibility of a six-man rotation in the future, but with an day off on Monday the Phillies are planning to use five starters for at least the next couple of weeks.

Walker’s been in the rotation since Opening Day and has pitched quite well in his six starts this year. The 32-year-old has an impressive 2.54 ERA (125 ERA+) in 28 1/3 innings of work, although his peripherals are not quite as impressive. A 17.6% strikeout rate is well below par, and Walker’s 10.4% walk rate is much too high for a pitcher who’s missing bats at a below-average clip. He’s done well to mostly keep the barrel of the ball and induce soft contact so far, but peripherals like his 4.01 FIP and 4.71 SIERA suggest that he’s more of a number five type starter than the mid-rotation results he’s posting so far.

Of course, even being a serviceable back-of-the-rotation piece is a massive improvement over Walker’s performance last year. 2024 was the right-hander’s second season in Philadelphia, and it could have hardly gone worse as he pitched to a brutal 7.10 ERA with a 6.94 FIP in 83 2/3 innings of work spread between 15 starts and four relief outings. Following a season where Walker had more appearances where he allowed at least four runs (seven) than where he allowed two runs or less (six), the right-hander’s position within the Phillies organization was unstable enough that the club opted to trade for Jesus Luzardo and sign Joe Ross in a bid to make Walker less necessary. That left some to suggest he was in danger of being cut ahead of Opening Day entering camp, but the injury to Suarez paved the way for Walker to not only remain on the roster but in the club’s rotation.

Though he’s headed back to the bullpen at this point, Walker’s solid work over the season’s first month was more than enough to solidify his roster spot, and at this point the question regarding Walker is no longer whether he can avoid a disastrous repeat of 2024, but rather if he can continue pitching well enough to force Philadelphia brass into considering a six-man staff at some point this year. Of course, the Phillies wouldn’t necessarily need to consider a six-man rotation in order for Walker to make his way back into the mix, as he’s presumably the next man up to make starts until the Phillies decide to promote Andrew Painter.

The Phillies have generally enjoyed good health in their rotation mix in recent years, but injuries are always a risk when it comes to starting pitchers. There’s no better proof of this concept than veteran right-hander Aaron Nola, who has been one of the most durable and reliable innings-eating arms in the sport for nearly a decade at this point. As noted by Todd Zolecki of MLB.com, however, Nola was experiencing a neck issue prior to today’s game. That led the Phillies to activate Suarez from the injured list today rather than the day of his planned start tomorrow in case they needed a starter to help cover for Nola. Fortunately, Nola wasn’t stopped from pitching by the neck problem and went on to pitch six shutout innings while striking out eight in the club’s 7-2 win over the Diamondbacks this evening. Even so, the last-minute injury scare serves as a reminder that an opening could open in the Philadelphia rotation at any given moment, and it would be a surprise to see Walker passed over for any spot start opportunities as long as he remains effective in his move back to the bullpen.

Phillies To Activate Ranger Suarez On Sunday

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Ranger Suárez has made four rehab starts since beginning a minor league assignment three weeks ago. That includes 4 2/3 innings of one-run ball for Triple-A Lehigh Valley over the weekend. After building to 78 pitches, he’ll make his return to the majors this weekend. Manager Rob Thomson told reporters (including Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer) that Suárez will be activated to start against Arizona on Sunday.

That may push Philadelphia to a six-man rotation. Thomson acknowledged yesterday that the Phils were considering moving to a six-man staff rather than bumping anyone to the bullpen (link via Noah Levick of NBC Sports Philadelphia). Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Jesús Luzardo, Cristopher Sánchez and Taijuan Walker have combined for every Phils start this season.

Walker was the one who would have been ticketed for the bullpen had Suárez been healthy. He’d be the candidate to move back to relief, but he has pitched fairly well through his first five starts. Walker owns a 2.78 ERA across 22 2/3 innings. His 20% strikeout rate and 10% walk percentage are each a little worse than average, but he has allowed two or fewer runs in all but one of his outings. Walker has found a little extra velocity relative to last season. He’s averaging 92 MPH on both his four-seam and sinker after sitting around 91 a year ago.

Luzardo, Wheeler and Sánchez have all been excellent. Nola has struggled while operating with diminished velocity, but his rotation spot clearly isn’t any jeopardy. The Phils have already confirmed that Suárez will return to the rotation, while Sánchez’s recent forearm soreness seemingly amounted to nothing. The question is essentially whether the Phils feel Walker will be more valuable in a long relief role or taking the ball every sixth day.

Walker will make at least one more start. He’s tabbed as the probable pitcher tomorrow against Brad Lord in their series finale against Washington. Wheeler and Sánchez have gone over the past two days. The Phils will run with Luzardo, Nola and Suárez against the D-Backs. They’re off on Monday before a stretch of nine game days.

While the rotation has been a strength, Philadelphia’s relief group has struggled. Their bullpen entered play Wednesday with a 5.25 ERA that was better only the Nationals’ 7.47 mark. No bullpen has blown more leads than Philadelphia’s eight. José Alvarado, Matt Strahm and Tanner Banks (to a lesser extent) are the only Phils relievers who have pitched well. Righties Orion Kerkering and Jordan Romano, both of whom have worked in high-leverage spots, have each had particularly poor starts. Walker is unlikely to be an impact relief weapon, but he’d give Thomson another option in the middle to late innings if they move him back to the bullpen after tomorrow.

Phillies Notes: Sanchez, Suarez, Johnson

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The Phillies had a bit of an injury scare on Tuesday, as left-hander Cristopher Sánchez departed his start against the Mets after two innings. Sánchez was working with diminished velocity, and the club announced postgame that he’d dealt with forearm soreness.

Despite that ominous initial word, the Phillies downplayed concern on Wednesday. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski told reporters (including Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer) that Sánchez felt normal this morning. While the southpaw will hold off on playing catch until Friday, the Phillies don’t plan to send him for imaging. They’ll wait to see how he feels when he resumes throwing in a couple days.

Sánchez made his first All-Star Game and finished 10th in NL Cy Young voting a season ago. He worked 183 1/3 innings of 3.32 ERA ball in his first full season as a starter. He’s pitching just as well this year, allowing 3.42 earned runs per nine over 26 1/3 frames. He’s getting grounders at a typically excellent 55.1% clip while striking out 29.2% of opponents. The start before yesterday was one of his best. He recorded a career-high 12 punchouts across seven innings of three-run against the Giants.

The Phils have had the same five starters all season: Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Jesús Luzardo, Taijuan Walker and Sánchez. Nola has had a rough start, allowing a 6.43 ERA on nearly two home runs per nine while working with diminished velocity. Nola’s fastball tends to pick up life over the course of the season, and he’s obviously going to get a long leash based on his track record. The other four starters have ERA’s comfortably below 4.00.

Ranger Suárez has been out all season after experiencing back stiffness late in Spring Training. He has made a trio of minor league rehab appearances, including five scoreless frames at Triple-A Lehigh Valley on Tuesday. Matt Gelb of The Athletic writes that Suárez is expected to make one more start for the IronPigs on Sunday before returning to the big league rotation next week.

If Sánchez avoids the injured list, the Phils will need to decide between a six-man rotation or bumping someone to the bullpen. Walker, who would have begun the season in long relief if Suárez were healthy, would presumably be the odd man out. The veteran righty is pitching well, though, turning in a 2.29 ERA over 19 2/3 innings through his first four starts. His 19.3% strikeout rate is still a couple points below league average, but he has added a tick of velocity after last year’s dismal season.

One pitcher who is definitely making that role change: Seth Johnson. Dombrowski told reporters (including The Philly Inquirer’s Scott Lauber) that the righty is moving to the bullpen in Triple-A. Johnson has been a starting pitcher through his five seasons in the minors. He also started his lone major league appearance, a 2 1/3 inning start last September. Philadelphia acquired Johnson from the Orioles in last summer’s deadline deal that sent Gregory Soto to Baltimore.

A former top 40 draft choice, Johnson ranks as the #6 prospect in the Phils’ system at Baseball America. His fastball is averaging north of 95 MPH in Triple-A. That could tick up in shorter stints, while Johnson draws praise for his cutter and curveball. His subpar command always pointed to a possible bullpen future that has now come to pass. Jonson carries a 3.98 ERA over 20 1/3 innings in Lehigh Valley this year. He has punched out 27% of opponents while issuing walks nearly 15% of the time.

MLBTR Podcast: Free Agent Power Rankings

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams and Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss MLBTR’s first edition of the 2025-26 Free Agent Power Rankings, including these focal points…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Photo courtesy of David Frerker, Imagn Images

NL Injury Notes: Realmuto, Turner, Suarez, Abbott, Murphy, Freeman

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X-rays were negative on J.T. Realmuto’s left foot after he fouled a ball off himself in Saturday’s 11-6 win over the Nationals.  The Phillies took Realmuto out of the game, and the catcher also didn’t play today “more a precaution than anything,” manager Rob Thomson told reporters (including Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer).  Realmuto will likely be back in action tomorrow when the Phillies have their home opener, though Trea Turner could miss a third straight game as he recovers from back spasms.  Thomson said Turner was available off the bench today and might play Monday, though the Phils’ off-day on Tuesday would allow Turner to get a full four days of recovery time if he is held out of Monday’s lineup.

In other Phillies injury news, Ranger Suarez threw a 26-pitch bullpen session on Saturday, and an up-and-down bullpen is now slated for Tuesday.  If all goes well, Lauber writes that Suarez will make at least one minor league rehab start before being activated from the 15-day injured list.  Suarez was bothered by a bad back during Spring Training, and the Phils decided to put him on the IL to give him more time to heal up and them finish his spring preparations in advance of his 2025 debut.

More injury updates from around the National League…

  • Speaking of pitchers on the 15-day IL, the Reds told reporters (including Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer) that southpaw Andrew Abbott will throw his first rehab start with Triple-A Louisville on Tuesday.  Abbott is slated for another outing on April 6, and a decision will then be made about whether or not he might be activated onto the Reds’ roster.  A shoulder strain ended Abbott’s 2024 season in late August, and recovering from that strain set Abbott back in his usual offseason work, so the Reds opted to slowly ramp the left-hander up in Spring Training.  If all goes well, Abbott should line up to make his 2025 debut on April 11 or 12, depending on how Cincinnati sets up its pitching staff.
  • Braves catcher Sean Murphy will also probably be starting a minor league rehab assignment this week, as MLB.com’s Mark Bowman writes that Murphy will likely take the field for the Braves’ A-level affiliate on Friday.  Murphy cracked a rib after he was hit by a pitch during a Spring Training game in early March, and we’ve already hit the lower end of the initial 4-6 week recovery timeline.  Still, Murphy appears to be making good enough progress that a return to Atlanta’s lineup should be feasible by mid-April.
  • Tyler Freeman left today’s game with a bruised left wrist after he was hit by a Taj Bradley pitch, but x-rays were negative, MLB.com’s Thomas Harding writes.  Freeman might be well enough to return to the Rockies’ lineup tomorrow, though since Colorado doesn’t play on Tuesday, this is another situation where a player with a minor injury might simply get an extra day to fully heal.

Ranger Suarez To Begin Season On Injured List; Taijuan Walker To Rejoin Rotation

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March 24: Suarez will indeed open the 2025 season on the injured list, per Zolecki. Walker will be the Phillies’ fifth starter. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski tells the Phillies beat that Suarez could potentially pitch in the majors sometime in April if he continues his current progression with no setbacks.

March 23: Ranger Suarez has been dealing with a bad back over the last week, and it seems like the Phillies will give the left-hander some extra time to recover by placing him on the 15-day injured list to begin the season.  Manager Rob Thomson more or less confirmed the move today, as MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki noted that Thomson told reporters post-game that the Phillies “expect Ranger to go on the IL,” but stated in an interview during the game that Suarez would definitively be placed on the 15-day.

The move seems largely precautionary, as Thomson said “We don’t want this thing to linger. So if we do officially IL him, we don’t think it’s going to be long.”  Zolecki notes that Suarez might just miss a single start if he spends only the 15-day minimum on the sidelines, due to the three-day backdating available for IL placements and the fact that the Phillies have three off-days within the first 12 days of the regular season.

Back problems hampered Suarez last year, effectively bifurcating what initially seemed like a breakout season for the left-hander.  Suarez had a sparkling 1.83 ERA over his first 98 1/3 innings of the 2024 campaign, and then a 6.54 ERA in his final 52 1/3 innings once his back started causing problems.  Suarez skipped the All-Star Game to spend the break resting his back, but Philadelphia ended up placing him on the 15-day IL anyway, which kept Suarez out of action for a month.

This early-season IL trip might well help Suarez get in front of any injury problems early, as trying to pitch through his bad back might’ve only worsened the issue last year.  The Phillies aren’t really losing much by resting him early, plus Taijuan Walker is on hand to step into the rotation.

Walker has looked good for much of Spring Training, though his last start saw the Yankees tee off for six earned runs over 3 2/3 innings of work from the right-hander.  As always, spring results aren’t necessarily as important as process, and Zolecki writes that Walker’s four-seamer has added over three miles miles per hours of added velocity, plus Walker’s splitter has also looked better.  In a sense, there’s nowhere to go but up for Walker after a dismal 2024 season that saw him post a 7.10 ERA in 83 2/3 innings.

The Phillies’ Next Rotation Extension Candidate

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On the transaction front, Spring Training's arrival opens extension season. Teams and players are free to talk extensions at any time of year, but it's most common in the lead-up to the start of the regular season. While most of those deals are for players early in their careers, there have been a few high-profile impending free agents (e.g. Rafael Devers, Ian Happ) who have recently signed extensions in the run-up to their platform years.

The Phillies pulled off the biggest extension of that ilk last spring. They kept Zack Wheeler off the market on a three-year term at a record-setting $42MM average annual value. That came a few months after the Phils brought back Aaron Nola on a seven-year contract early in free agency. For the third straight season, they're faced with the possibility of losing one of their most valuable pitchers to the open market.

Ranger Suárez is headed into his final year of club control. He and the Phillies already agreed to an $8.8MM salary to avoid arbitration. The question now is whether they want to initiate talks on a longer-term contract to try to keep him off next winter's open market. What kind of offer might that take, and how well-positioned are the Phils for another extended pitching investment?

Suárez, who turned 29 last August, has been a mid-rotation presence for three years running. The southpaw had an earned run average between 3.46 and 4.18 in each season from 2022-24. He turned in a cumulative 3.74 mark across 431 innings over that stretch. Suárez has fanned a league average 21.5% of opposing hitters against an 8% walk rate. He has kept the ball on the ground at a robust 52.2% clip while allowing a lower than average hard contact rate in each season.

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