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Red Sox To Sign Ranger Suárez

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The Red Sox are going to add left-hander Ranger Suárez to their already-strong rotation. It is reportedly a five-year deal worth $130MM for the Boras Corporation client. It appears to be fairly straightforward, reportedly not containing any deferrals, opt-outs or no-trade protection. The Sox have a full 40-man and will need to make a corresponding move to make this official.

The Sox came into the offseason with a rotation headlined by Garrett Crochet, followed by a notable gap to their other starters. They had a lot of options for back-end types and depth but were looking to bolster the front end.

“Because of the depth that we’ve built up over the last couple of years, we feel pretty good about just overall starting pitching, maybe No. 3-ish through No. 10-ish,” was how chief baseball officer Craig Breslow framed the situation in November. “And that’s not to take away from guys who are certainly capable of doing more, and more just to say I don’t think we’re going to spend a ton of time trying to add a No. 4, No. 5 starter.”

Since then, Breslow has made a couple of moves to alter that rotation group. He acquired Sonny Gray from the Cardinals and Johan Oviedo from the Pirates. They subtracted a bit from the depth by including Richard Fitts in the Gray deal and Hunter Dobbins in the Willson Contreras swap.

Gray is arguably the kind of #2 starter the club was looking for. His 4.28 earned run average in 2025 has some Boston fans disputing that assessment but he has a 3.63 ERA, 27% strikeout rate, 6.1% walk rate and 44.6% ground ball rate in 531 innings dating back to the start of 2023. FanGraphs ranks him fifth in wins above replacement among pitchers in that time, behind only Tarik Skubal, Zack Wheeler, Logan Webb and Cristopher Sánchez.

Since the Gray deal, Boston has seemingly been more focused on upgrading its lineup and position player mix, targeting infielders like Alex Bregman, Bo Bichette, Ketel Marte, Brendan Donovan and Isaac Paredes.

The club has hit a bit of a wall there. Bregman has signed with the Cubs. The Diamondbacks have reportedly taken Marte off the market. The Astros don’t seem to have much interest in moving Paredes. Bichette is still a free agent but it’s unclear if the Sox would be willing to go to the lengths necessary to sign him. Donovan should still be available but the Sox haven’t met their asking price, at least not yet.

In the wake of Bregman’s agreement with Chicago, Rob Bradford of WEEI as well as Sean McAdam and Chris Cotillo of MassLive suggested Boston could switch their focus to starting pitching. Earlier today, Bradford suggested the club was getting more aggressive on the trade market but the Sox have gone to free agency instead.

The contract is notable on a few fronts. For one, Breslow has generally avoided long-term free agent deals since becoming Boston’s chief baseball officer. Coming into today, his longest deal for a free agent was to give Bregman three years, which turned into a one-year relationship when Bregman opted out. The Sox came into today as the only one of the 30 major league clubs to not have signed a free agent this winter. This deal will be a new benchmark for Breslow in terms of years and guarantee given to a free agent, as well as erasing Boston’s status as the only team not to spend money on free agency this offseason.

It’s also a notable deal for Suárez in a few different ways. For one thing, he was a fairly low-profile international signing of the Phillies at the start of his professional career, securing a bonus of just $25K. As he has become a major leaguer, he has pushed his salary up in arbitration with his strong results but his lack of volume has limited him. He just made $8.8MM in his final year of arbitration, relatively modest by modern standards, but will now be securing a much bigger payday than ever before.

Speaking of his strong results but limited overall workload, that impacted the view of his market coming into this winter. Broadly speaking, Suárez has been really good on a rate basis but he doesn’t throw especially hard and has dealt with some nagging injuries, impacting the overall quantity of his contributions.

He first became a full-time starter for the Phillies in 2022 and held a rotation job for four years. Over that span, he logged 588 1/3 innings with a 3.59 ERA. His 21.9% strikeout rate was around league average. His 7.5% walk rate was solid and his 50.8% ground ball rate quite good. He also earned a reputation as a cold-blooded playoff contributor, giving the Phils 42 2/3 postseason innings with a 1.48 ERA.

But his velocity has never been huge and has been trending down. His four-seam fastball averaged a bit over 93 miles per hour in 2022 and 2023. That dropped to 91.8 mph in 2024 and 91.3 mph last year. His primary pitch, his sinker, averaged just 90.1 mph last year.

He also still hasn’t really pitched a full big league season. He hasn’t had any major injury concerns but has had scattered issues over the years, with lower back problems being a recurring thorn. Thanks to those sporadic health problems, he’s never hit the 30-start mark or the 160-inning plateau in any season as a big leaguer.

Given his clear skills but also his question marks, MLBTR predicted Suárez for a five-year, $115MM deal at the beginning of the offseason, $23MM in terms of average annual value. The top of the free agent starting pitching market has been slow to move this winter. Dylan Cease and the Blue Jays quickly found each other but it’s been a bit tepid otherwise. Prior to this, no other starter apart from Cease signed a deal longer than than three years or for more than $75MM. Tatsuya Imai settled for three years and $54MM, significantly below the expectations from the outset of the offseason.

As Suárez and Framber Valdez lingered unsigned into the new year, it was fair to wonder if they would meet the initial expectations. But with this deal, Suárez has not only met MLBTR’s prediction but has surpassed it. He has matched the length with an extra $3MM in terms of average annual value, getting to $26MM AAV.

Despite some concerns with Suárez, the move gives Boston one of the best rotations in baseball, if not the very best. Crochet is the clear ace. Suárez and Gray will have two spots behind him, followed by Brayan Bello. Oviedo seems to be in a decent position to land the #5 spot but he would also have competition from guys like Patrick Sandoval and Kutter Crawford. It’s possible Tanner Houck jumps into the mix late in the year, as he underwent Tommy John surgery in August.

Prospects Connelly Early and Payton Tolle made big league debuts late in 2025 and could push for jobs as well. Kyle Harrison, David Sandlin, Shane Drohan and Tyler Uberstine are also on the 40-man roster. Those latter six names all have options and either have limited big league experience or none at all, so they could all be sent to the minors as depth. Crawford has a decent amount of big league experience but is still optionable, so it’s possible for him to be squeezed to Worcester as well.

But it also seems fair to wonder if this Suárez deal sets the Red Sox up to trade some starting pitching for the infield upgrade they didn’t get when Bregman slipped through their fingers. They have been connected to Donovan many times and have already lined up a few trades with Chaim Bloom, Boston’s former chief baseball officer who is now president of baseball operations with the Cardinals.

Donovan isn’t the only option out there. The Sox were also connected to Marte a bunch this winter. The Diamondbacks have reportedly taken him off the market but perhaps there’s some scenario where Breslow puts some big prospect names on the table and makes them consider it. Nico Hoerner’s name has also come up in some trade rumors after the Cubs signing Bregman. If the Phillies can sign Bichette, they are expected to trade Alec Bohm or Bryson Stott to make room. Jake Cronenworth of the Padres has been in a few rumors.

All those players would have varying level of trade value due to their different salaries and years of control, but the same is also true of Boston’s pitchers. Early and Tolle are big prospects and would only be given up for a big return. Sandoval has one year left on his contract and has been injured for most of the past two years, so his trade value is far more marginal. Bello has even been in some rumors and he would be somewhere in between, as he is owed $50.5MM over the next four years and has been more okay than great.

Since it feels likely that at least one more significant move is coming, the club’s financial picture is probably still in flux. For now, RosterResource pegs the club’s payroll at $216MM with a competitive balance tax calculation of $266MM. That’s assuming the Suárez deal is broken down evenly at $26MM per year, as the actual breakdown hasn’t been publicly reported yet. If it’s front-loaded or back-loaded, that could alter the actual payroll. However, the CBT is calculated based on a player’s AAV, so that won’t change.

The Sox avoided the tax in 2023 and 2024. They went narrowly over the line in 2025, paying a tax bill of just $1.5MM. That will make them second-time payors in 2026, giving them a base tax rate of 30% for going over the first threshold of $244MM. The second threshold is $264MM and the Sox would pay a 42% on further spending above that line. If they go beyond $284MM, the tax rate would jump to 75% for spending above that line and their top pick in the 2027 draft would be dropped by ten spots.

Speaking of the draft, the Sox are going to be impacted by this Suárez signing in 2026. Suárez rejected a qualifying offer from the Phillies, meaning the Sox are subject to the associated penalties for signing him. Since the Sox paid the tax last year, they have to forfeit their second- and fifth-highest draft picks this summer, in addition to losing $1MM in international bonus pool space. The Phillies will receive a compensation pick after the fourth round of the upcoming draft.

Prior to this deal with the Red Sox, Suárez was connected to the Orioles, Astros and Mets, though other clubs presumably had interest even if they weren’t connected to him in public reports. For the teams who missed out on Suárez, there are still some options they can turn to, despite the relatively late stage of the offseason.

Valdez and Zac Gallen are the top two free agents, with Chris Bassitt, Justin Verlander, Lucas Giolito and others still unsigned. The trade market still has some potential options, including MacKenzie Gore and Freddy Peralta. Valdez has to be pleased with Suárez getting a deal beyond expectations even at this part of the calendar. They are fairly similar pitchers as groundballers. Valdez is a bit older but has the more impressive track record overall.

Jon Heyman of The New York Post. first reported that the Sox would be signing Suárez. Bob Nightengale of USA Today first reported the length and guarantee, as well as the lack of deferrals and opt-outs. Chris Cotillo of MassLive first reported the lack of a no-trade clause. Photos courtesy of Bill Streicher, Brad Penner, Imagn Images

Poll: Would You Rather Have Framber Valdez Or Ranger Suarez?

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The 2025-26 offseason hasn’t been exceptionally slow overall to this point, with 30 of MLBTR’s Top 50 free agents already signed in addition to plenty of significant trades. With that said, however, things have been unusually quiet at the top of the class. Outside of an early strike by the Blue Jays to land Dylan Cease back in November, the only free agents in MLBTR’s Top 10 who have signed are Kyle Schwarber, who was always expected to re-up with the Phillies in relatively short order, and the NPB duo of Munetaka Murakami and Tatsuya Imai, both of whom had firm deadlines to sign a contract due to the rules of the posting process. The rest of the offseason’s top free agents are still out there, and while plenty of attention has been paid to the four best hitters available—Kyle Tucker, Bo Bichette, Alex Bregman, and Cody Bellinger—less fanfare has been made about the two best pitchers available.

With Cease and Imai off the market, the only two pitchers from MLBTR’s top 10 still available are lefties Framber Valdez and Ranger Suarez. Both are on the shortlist of the most talented lefty starters in the game at the moment, with solid track records of success in both the regular season and postseason. Both players took some time to get their careers into full swing; each became a full-time starter at age-26, though Valdez reached that point during the shortened 2020 season so he didn’t receive a full slate of starts until the following year. Suarez also received a half-season of starts before getting a full workload, as he joined the Phillies’ rotation on a permanent basis in August of 2021 with 12 starts down the stretch and never looked back. Since joining their respective rotations full time, each has proven to be a reliable front-end arm.

In terms of overall track record, Valdez has the edge. Valdez has an extra year as a starter under his belt, but even by that metric, volume is a clear separator. His 153 games started since joining the Astros’ rotation aren’t too far ahead of the 116 starts Suarez has made when factoring that extra year, but Valdez’s 973 innings of work utterly dwarf Suarez’s 654 frames. Things are much closer in terms of results on the field, but Valdez still has the edge with a 3.23 ERA and 3.38 FIP to Suarez’s 3.39 ERA and 3.45 FIP. Suarez’s 22.2% strikeout rate, 7.4% walk rate, and 51.3% ground ball rate are all solid. But Valdez’s has the edge in terms of punchouts and grounders, with only slightly more free passes: 23.8% strikeout rate, 8.0% walk rate, and 61.5% ground ball rate.

That combination of volume and results may paint the picture that Valdez is clearly the superior arm, but there’s more factors to consider. Suarez and Valdez enjoyed virtually identical platform seasons, with a 3.59 ERA and 3.57 FIP for Suarez to Valdez’s 3.66 ERA and 3.37 FIP. The pair’s strikeout rate was also mostly the same, (23.3% for Valdez and 23.2% for Suarez), but Suarez took a big step forward in terms of walk rate and issued free passes at just a 5.8% clip to Valdez’s 8.5%.

That ability to cut down walks is certainly attractive, and it’s fair to argue that Suarez is trending upward while Valdez could be starting to show some signs of decline. That’s especially relevant given the age gap between the two; Suarez is two years younger than Valdez, entering free agency at age-30 as opposed to age-32. MLBTR projected both pitchers for five-year deals back in November. Using those predictions, Suarez would be paid through age-34 while Valdez would be on the books through age-36 on an identical contract. Suarez would also be cheaper, at least according to MLBTR, with a $115MM prediction for Suarez compared to a $150MM prediction for Valdez.

In addition, Suarez’s postseason resume is nearly spotless, with a career 1.48 ERA in the playoffs. By contrast, Valdez has a 4.34 postseason ERA. That comes in double the innings (85 frames against Suarez’s 42 2/3 innings of work), but the elder lefty’s work in recent years has been particularly lackluster; he’s posted an 8.27 ERA in his last four playoff starts. A strong postseason resume isn’t typically a major factor in the sort of nine-figure deals Valdez and Suarez are seeking, but it could easily serve as a tiebreaker for some clubs between two pitchers this similar. Another soft factor that could play a role in differentiating the two is an incident last season where Astros catcher Cesar Salazar was struck by a pitch from Valdez in a cross-up situation. Speculation arose at the time that the pitch was intentional on Valdez’s part, though both players declared it an accident afterwards.

How do MLBTR readers view the two lefties, and which would you rather have over the next five years? Are Valdez’s superior volume and results enough to overcome Suarez’s advantages in age and postseason performance? Have your say in the poll below:

Valdez, Suarez Among Orioles’ Targets In Continuing Rotation Search

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Jan. 6: Both Framber Valdez and Ranger Suarez remain under consideration by the Orioles, reports Andy Kostka of the Baltimore Banner. The O’s have already been reported to have interest in both lefties, but that was prior to their recent slate of pitching acquisitions and prior to their $155MM signing of Alonso, so it’s notable that they’re still shopping in the deep end of the free agent pool even after spending a combined $195MM in free agency and taking on another $26MM or so via trade.

Jan. 5: The Orioles have made a couple of rotation moves in recent weeks but that doesn’t necessarily mean they’re done. Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic report today that the club is still looking for another starting pitcher, which could be either via free agency or the trade market.

Adding to the rotation has been an obvious goal for quite a while. Baltimore starters posted a collective 4.65 earned run average in 2025, which was better than just six other clubs in the majors. At season’s end, Tomoyuki Sugano and Zach Eflin became free agents, further thinning out the group.

Accordingly, the O’s have been connected to a wide number of free agents and trade candidates this winter. They made a notable move a couple of weeks ago, sending four prospects and a draft pick to the Rays for Shane Baz. A week ago, they brought back Eflin via a one-year, $10MM deal with a mutual option for 2027.

If the season started today, the rotation would feature Kyle Bradish, Trevor Rogers, Baz and Eflin in four spots. Dean Kremer would be the favorite for the final slot. Guys like Tyler Wells, Chayce McDermott, Cade Povich and Brandon Young also on the roster but have options and could be sent to the minors if everyone is healthy. Albert Suárez is back on a minor league deal and prospect Trey Gibson is also lurking as another non-roster option.

That’s a decent group, and a team source describes it as “adequate” to The Athletic. For a club looking to rebound from a nightmare season, it’s understandable that they still want more. That’s especially true considering it’s hard to rely on this collection of arms.

Bradish just returned from Tommy John surgery late last year and made just six starts. He only made eight starts in 2024 before the surgery, so that’s just 14 starts and 77 1/3 innings over the past two years. Wells is similar, having made just seven starts over the past two years due to his own elbow surgery. Rogers was great last year but limited to 18 starts by a knee injury. Due to multiple ailments over his career, he’s never topped 133 innings in a big league season. Baz took the ball 31 times in 2025 and logged 166 1/3 frames but that was his first time going beyond 14 starts and his first time hitting the 80-inning mark. Eflin underwent back surgery in August. He recently said he’s hoping to be ready by Opening Day but that doesn’t seem to be a lock.

Adding another arm would make things a bit cluttered if everyone is healthy, but that’s a big if, considering the total track record of the group. Given the number of depth options, the O’s would presumably be looking for more upside with another rotation addition.

Rosenthal and Sammon mention Framber Valdez, Ranger Suárez and Zac Gallen as free agent possibilities, in addition to trade candidates Edward Cabrera, Freddy Peralta and MacKenzie Gore. That appears to simply be a list of the best pitchers still available, as opposed to reporting on anyone the O’s are specifically targeting, though the club has been connected to those free agents as well as Cabrera and Gore earlier in the offseason.

RosterResource projects the O’s for a payroll of $147MM next year. They opened 2025 at $165MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Signing one of the Valdez/Suárez/Gallen trio would likely require the O’s to pay $20 to $30MM annually. That would involve going beyond last year’s spending but not by much. It’s also possible they could save themselves a few bucks if they can trade Ryan Mountcastle, now that the Pete Alonso signing crowds him out. Mountcastle is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $7.8MM salary this year.

The trade candidates would cost less financially. Peralta will make just $8MM next year. Gore and Cabrera are projected for $4.7MM and $3.7MM respectively. But of course, the O’s would have to send something of value to those other clubs in trade. As mentioned, the O’s just sent out a big package of prospects in the Baz deal, which may lower their desire to further deplete the farm system with another big trade.

Photo courtesy of Nick Turchiaro, Imagn Images

Orioles Remain Involved On Top Free Agent Starters After Alonso Deal

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After making a massive splash on offense, the Orioles figure to turn their attention to the rotation. That could also come via the open market, as the MLB Network’s Jon Morosi relays that Baltimore remains in the mix for the top free agent starters. Andy Kostka of The Baltimore Banner similarly suggests that the O’s have ongoing interest in Ranger Suárez.

Baltimore committed $31MM annually on a surprising five-year deal to add Pete Alonso. It’s easily the biggest free agent move of Mike Elias’ tenure leading baseball operations. That also means the long-term books are still fairly open. Alonso joins Ryan Helsley, Tyler O’Neill and Samuel Basallo as the only players signed beyond next season. Helsley and O’Neill come off the books after 2027, while Basallo won’t make more than $4MM in a season until 2030.

A significant arbitration class clutters the short-term picture a little more. RosterResource projects their 2026 payroll obligations around $148MM. (That’s using a $31MM estimated salary for Alonso, but the annual breakdown on his deal hasn’t been reported.) Baltimore had a little more than $159MM committed to their Opening Day payroll in 2025. They’d need to push that higher to make a second notable free agent move, but that appears to be in play headed into the second full season of David Rubenstein’s ownership tenure.

Adding a front-line starter alongside Trevor Rogers and Kyle Bradish is the clear objective now for Elias and company. Alongside Suárez, they’ve been tied to Framber Valdez, Michael King and Tatsuya Imai. Elias has already said he’s open to sacrificing a draft pick to sign a player who rejected a qualifying offer. That applies to Valdez, Suárez and King. They did not give up any draft capital to sign Alonso, who was ineligible for a QO, but their unsuccessful $150MM bid for Kyle Schwarber demonstrates that willingness to add a qualified free agent.

Baltimore is juggling the free agent pursuits against possibilities on the trade front. (Adding another right-handed power bat only further clouds the path to playing time for former top corner infield prospect Coby Mayo, for instance.) The Athletic reported last night that they’ve been among the most aggressive teams in talks with the Marlins regarding Edward Cabrera. Morosi also mentioned Nationals lefty MacKenzie Gore as a potential trade target for the O’s. The two parties have had multiple conversations surrounding Gore, who’s controlled for two more seasons via arbitration.

Gore is a natural target for any team seeking rotation help. The former No. 3 overall pick was once the top pitching prospect in the sport, and while he’s yet to develop into an established ace, he’s shown glimpses of that ability. Gore has made at least 27 starts in three straight seasons for Washington. His 4.15 earned run average in that time is solid but not particularly eye-catching. Metrics like SIERA (3.99) and FIP (4.01) are only a bit more bullish.

That said, Gore spent much of the season’s first half pitching like a Cy Young contender. He carried a sparkling 3.02 ERA into the All-Star break — a mark supported by a dominant 30.5% strikeout rate and a strong 7.7% walk rate. That strikeout rate trailed only Tarik Skubal, Zack Wheeler, Garrett Crochet and Hunter Brown. His 14.2% swinging-strike rate checked in behind only Skubal, Wheeler and Dylan Cease. Gore looked to be in the midst of a full-fledged breakout, finally realizing his ceiling as a No. 1 or 2 starter.

The next three starts were a nightmare. Gore was rocked for 23 runs in just 15 1/3 innings, ballooning his ERA into the mid-4.00s. He rebounded over his final seven starts but also spent a couple weeks on the injured list due to shoulder inflammation. The 26-year-old lefty (27 in February) finished out what had looked like such a promising campaign with a respectable but unremarkable 4.17 ERA in 159 2/3 innings.

Gore is something of an unfinished product, though other more analytically inclined clubs might hope they can coax another level of performance out of him. The Nationals remade their front office this offseason but had generally been viewed as behind the curve when it comes to incorporating data into their pitching development. On a smaller scale, we saw a big jump in Kyle Finnegan’s performance with Detroit. An acquiring team would surely be hoping for similar improvements from Gore. The pieces are certainly in place. Gore’s 95.5 mph average four-seamer is strong, particularly for a lefty, and his 13.3% swinging-strike rate is already excellent as well.

While Alonso isn’t limiting the free agent pitching possibilities, it probably takes them out of the running for another massive move on a bat. Morosi reported yesterday that the O’s had been in contact with Kyle Tucker’s camp. Baltimore always seemed like a longer shot on Tucker, and it’d be shocking if they add him on top of the Alonso agreement. The O’s already brought in Taylor Ward via trade and have a crowded corner outfield mix with O’Neill, Colton Cowser and Dylan Beavers. They’re likely to give some DH at-bats to whomever of Basallo and Adley Rutschman isn’t behind the plate and need to sort out whether there’s room on the roster at all for Mayo and Ryan Mountcastle.

Mets “Reluctant” To Make Long-Term Offers For Free Agent Starters

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While it’s no secret that addressing the top of the rotation is a priority for the Mets this winter, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports that the Mets are hesitant to make long-term offers to the top starters available in free agency this winter. Sammon adds that each of Framber Valdez, Tatsuya Imai, and Ranger Suarez would “hold some appeal” to the Mets on shorter-term deals.

At this point, it seems unlikely any of those pitchers will need to settle for something short-term. MLBTR predicted both Valdez and Imai to land six-year deals worth $150MM in free agency this winter as the offseason’s #6 and #7 free agents. Meanwhile, Suarez clocked in at #10 on MLBTR’s Top 50 MLB Free Agents list and was predicted for a five-year deal worth $115MM. Right-hander Dylan Cease jumped the market to sign a seven-year deal with the Blue Jays late last month. His $210MM guarantee exceeds the seven-year, $189MM guarantee MLBTR predicted for the right-hander, although that deal does include deferred money that lowers the net present value of the deal a bit.

Even with that deferred money, however, Cease’s seven-year pact is hardly a troublesome omen for Valdez, Imai, and Suarez. Imai in particular won’t celebrate his 28th birthday until May and that youth figures to help him land a long-term deal this winter. Of course, free agency can be unpredictable. While the trend of short-term deals with opt outs have been more common for position players (Carlos Correa, Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Pete Alonso) than pitchers in recent years, a few hurlers have found an unexpectedly soft market as well. Jack Flaherty was widely expected to land a long-term deal in free agency last offseason but ended up signing for just two years with the Tigers. Two offseasons ago, Blake Snell was viewed as a shoo-in for a six-year deal but wound up signing with the Giants on a short-term, opt-out laden pact.

Perhaps the Mets are willing to be patient on the free agent market to see if another high-end starter falls through the cracks like Snell did during the 2023-24 offseason. Another option would be to move a tier down in free agency to sign a short-term deal with a player who has still shown front-of-the-rotation upside. Michael King is viewed as being a potential top-of-the-rotation arm whose years will be limited coming off an injury-marred season, and the Mets are among the teams with known interest. Sammon floats Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly as other possibilities, either of whom would be plausible fits. Kelly turned in a 3.52 ERA in 32 starts last year, but will be forced to stay short-term by the fact that he’ll play next season at the age of 37. Gallen has shown ace-level upside in the past and is only 30, but enters free agency coming off the worst season of his career.

Another option for the Mets would be to keep tabs on the trade market. Sammon notes that Pirates right-hander Mitch Keller is someone that New York would “likely” view as an upgrade to their internal rotation options, to say nothing of more established front-end options like Freddy Peralta or higher upside players like MacKenzie Gore and Edward Cabrera. Keller will make $54.5MM over the next three seasons, while Gore and Cabrera are controlled via arbitration through 2027 and ’28 respectively. Peralta (as well as ace lefty Tarik Skubal, should the Tigers make him available) would only be controlled for one season before they would hit free agency and surely seek the sort of long-term deals the Mets are looking to avoid.

Speculatively speaking, that could make a controllable starter like Keller, Gore, or Cabrera and ideal fit for the Mets. The club already appears motivated to make moves on the trade market this winter, with Kodai Senga and Jeff McNeil among the club’s rumored trade candidates. In addition to those veteran names, the Mets have a number of young infielders (Brett Baty, Mark Vientos, Luisangel Acuna, and Ronny Mauricio) who could be made available in the right deal. For a team like the Pirates or Marlins looking to add help on offense, any of those names would surely be attractive pieces to bring into the fold.

Of course, there’s no guarantee that a significant number of starting pitchers move on the trade market this winter. If a run on starting pitching begins in free agency while the Mets are focused on the trade market, the club could find that the patient approach it took backfired and left them without a true front-end talent to pursue—or that they had to pay a premium to land one of the last arms remaining on the market. It’s a difficult needle the Mets will have to thread if they want to land a front-end arm on a shorter-term arrangement, and fans are surely hoping they’ll do a better job of doing so than they did with last winter’s disappointing deals for Sean Manaea, Clay Holmes, and Frankie Montas. Of that trio, only Holmes managed to stick in the rotation by the end of the year.

Astros, Orioles Among Clubs Interested In Ranger Suárez

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Left-hander Ranger Suárez is one of the top free agent starting pitchers still available. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports that the Astros, Cubs and Orioles are the clubs most likely to pluck him away from the Philadelphia, though the Phillies remain in the mix. Feinsand adds that the Mets and Tigers are also involved in the southpaw’s market. Jeff Passan of ESPN adds that Suárez has long been a target of Houston and Baltimore.

Suárez, 30, has been pretty consistent in terms of his results in recent years. He’s generally been able to combine decent strikeout and walk rates with strong ground ball numbers. However, he also has some question marks since his velocity isn’t huge by modern standards and some injuries have prevented him from being a workhorse.

Over the past four seasons, Suárez has tossed 588 1/3 innings for the Phillies, allowing 3.59 earned runs per nine. He punched out 21.9% of batters faced in that time and gave out walks at a 7.5% pace, both marks being close to typical league averages. His 50.8% ground ball rate in that span was quite strong.

He has spent at least some time on the injured list in each of those campaigns. Back problems are a recurring issue but there was also an elbow strain and a hamstring strain mixed in. Due to those injury setbacks, he has never hit the 160-inning mark in any season of his career. As for the velocity, he was able to average in the 93-94 mile per hour range with his fastball a few years ago. However, over the past two seasons, he’s been in the 91-92 mph range.

It’s not a perfect profile but Suárez is still one of the better arms out there. At the beginning of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Suárez could secure a five-year, $115MM deal. He was the fourth starting pitcher on the list, behind Dylan Cease, Framber Valdez and Tatsuya Imai. Cease has signed with the Blue Jays but Valdez, Imai and Suárez remain three of the most attractive starting pitchers available. Suárez rejected a qualifying offer from the Phillies, meaning any other team that signs him would be subject to the associated penalties.

Valdez is a fairly similar pitcher, since he’s also a ground ball guy, but he edges past Suárez for a few reasons. Though he’s two years older, he’s been more durable. While Suárez has never got to 160 innings, Valdez got to at least 176 in each of the past four seasons, including three with at least 192 frames. His ground ball rate is usually in the 60% range, about 10 points ahead of Suárez. His velocity has also been a few ticks above Suárez of late. MLBTR predicted Valdez for $150MM over five years.

The Astros just lost Valdez to free agency and need help in the rotation due to a large number of injuries. They seem to have a tight budget, with an apparent desire to avoid the competitive balance tax. It therefore makes sense that they might look to pivot to Suárez as a way to effectively replace Valdez at a discount.

RosterResource has Houston’s CBT number around $220MM, putting them roughly $24MM below next year’s base threshold of the tax. Signing Suárez would likely put them right up against the line but they could also create some more room by trading someone like Jake Meyers, Jesús Sánchez or Christian Walker.

Orioles president of baseball operations Mike Elias has publicly admitted that the club is looking for a front-of-rotation starter to slot next to Trevor Rogers and Kyle Bradish. They have generally avoided big splashes on the pitching side. They also needed rotation help last year and ended up giving one-year deals to Charlie Morton and Tomoyuki Sugano, relatively older guys without much upside. It’s possible they make a bolder strike this offseason, having been connected to Imai, Valdez and others.

The Cubs are also known to be on the lookout for rotation upgrades. They have a number of decent arms already on the roster but clearly want to raise the ceiling by adding a playoff-caliber arm. They were interested in Cease before he came off the board and have also been connected to Imai, Michael King and others.

RosterResource has them less than $50MM away from the tax line, which they have generally tried not to cross in recent years. They could also consider a big offensive upgrade, such as going after Alex Bregman. Getting both a big-name starter and Bregman could push them close to that line.

The Tigers have a big ace in Tarik Skubal but could upgrade the group behind him. As of now, Reese Olson, Casey Mize and Jack Flaherty are his best supports but the club could get an external upgrade and bump each of those guys down a peg. They haven’t been signing top free agents for a while but the tier below seems possible. They have been connected to King and now Suárez this offseason.

The Mets dealt with a lot of rotation injuries in 2025, forcing them to rely on rookies Nolan McLean, Jonah Tong and Brandon Sproat. There’s talent there but the club clearly wants to make additions after a narrow playoff miss. They have been connected to Imai as well as Joe Ryan of the Twins.

They have a lot of moving parts in their offseason. Acquiring Marcus Semien might push Jeff McNeil to the trade block. They also might want to flip out Kodai Senga as they also add to the rotation. They may or may not re-sign Pete Alonso and Edwin Díaz. They also might be in the markets for Cody Bellinger and other free agents.

As for the Phillies, they could try to bring back Suárez but it might not be their priority right now. Zack Wheeler may miss the beginning of the season due to thoracic outlet syndrome surgery but it’s possible he can rejoin the club fairly early in the campaign. Once back, he would slot into the rotation with Cristopher Sánchez, Jesús Luzardo, Aaron Nola, Taijuan Walker and Andrew Painter.

The Phils could bolster that group but they also have other things on the to-do list. They want to re-sign Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto while also remaking their outfield. Amid all of that, it’s possible one of these other clubs has a chance to lure Suárez away.

Photo courtesy of Bill Streicher, Imagn Images

Nine Players Reject Qualifying Offer

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The deadline to accept the qualifying offer has passed. Four players — Trent Grisham, Gleyber Torres, Brandon Woodruff, and Shota Imanaga — chose to accept the one-year, $22.025MM deal and remain with their current clubs. The remaining nine players rejected the deal. They are: Cubs outfielder Kyle Tucker, Phillies DH Kyle Schwarber, Blue Jays infielder Bo Bichette, Astros lefty Framber Valdez, Padres righty Dylan Cease, Phillies lefty Ranger Suarez, Mets closer Edwin Diaz, Diamondbacks righty Zac Gallen, and Padres righty Michael King. All nine are now free agents.

There’s not much surprise in any of the nine players who rejected. Tucker, Schwarber, Bichette, Valdez, Cease, Suarez and Diaz were all locks. Gallen may have given some brief thought to accepting after a rough showing in 2025, but he finished strong and has a track record as a high-end starter who’s garnered multiple top-five finishes in NL Cy Young balloting. King was hobbled by nerve and knee injuries in an odd season but was dominant in 2023-24 and through the first two months of the current season. He was healthy late in the year and fanned three in his lone inning of postseason work. He’ll test the waters in search of a multi-year deal as well.

Now that this nonet has rejected qualifying offers, they’ll all be subject to draft compensation. Interested teams will need to surrender a draft pick (or multiple picks) and, in some cases, space from their bonus pool for international amateurs in order to sign any of this group. The extent of that draft compensation depends on the revenue-sharing and luxury tax status of the new team. MLBTR broke down which pick(s) each club would forfeit by signing a “qualified” free agent last month.

Similarly, the compensation for each player’s former club is dependent on revenue-sharing and luxury tax status — as well as the size of the contract signed by the player in question. MLBTR also ran through the compensation each team would receive if their qualified free agents turned down the offer and signed elsewhere.

Orioles Pursuing Prominent Pitching Upgrades, Open To Signing Qualifying Offer Recipients

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On the heels of a disappointing 2025 season, Orioles president of baseball operations Mike Elias is striking a much more aggressive tenor in his early media appearances this offseason than last. Baltimore’s baseball ops leader candidly acknowledged this week that he’s hopeful of adding a starter who can give his team “innings and front-half-of-the-rotation stuff” as well as a reliever “who has closer experience” (links via Andy Kostka of the Baltimore Banner and Jake Rill of MLB.com. Just as notably, Elias voiced that he is “fully prepared” to forfeit draft pick(s) to sign free agents who have rejected a qualifying offer.

It’s a notable departure from Baltimore’s 2024-25 offseason. The O’s made a multi-year offer to Corbin Burnes that wasn’t accepted. It’s not clear how many — if any — other free agents received multi-year offers from the Orioles.

Ultimately, Elias & Co. handed out almost exclusively one-year deals, signing Charlie Morton ($15MM), Tomoyuki Sugano ($13MM), Andrew Kittredge ($10MM), Gary Sanchez ($8.5MM), Ramon Laureano ($4MM) and Dylan Carlson ($975K) for the 2025 season. Outfielder Tyler O’Neill was the lone recipient of a multi-year guarantee, landing three years and $49.5MM. Even that deal came with an opt-out opportunity following the 2025 season.

O’Neill was not only the lone multi-year free agent signing for the Orioles last winter — he’s the only free agent Elias has signed to a multi-year deal in seven offseasons leading Baltimore’s baseball operations. For much of that time, the team has been rebuilding, which helps to explain the lack of a multi-year investment. Elias told Darragh McDonald in a recent guest appearance on the MLBTR Podcast that there’s no organizational aversion to multi-year free agent deals, they simply haven’t lined up on one during his tenure.

At least based on his early comments, Elias seems more resolute in his efforts to pursue higher-end talent. The O’s have a pair of notable arms in Kyle Bradish and the resurgent Trevor Rogers atop their rotation, but Rogers is a free agent next winter and Bradish only returned from Tommy John surgery this past summer. Voicing a preference to sign someone who can pitch in the “front half” of the rotation and expressing a willingness to punt draft picks both signal a more aggressive playbook this winter.

On the free agent side of things, the market has several interesting names. Dylan Cease, Framber Valdez, Ranger Suarez, Michael King, Brandon Woodruff and Zac Gallen all received qualifying offers. None are expected to accept. NPB star Tatsuya Imai will also be posted for MLB clubs, adding a 28-year-old wild card to the mix. Notably, Elias was the Astros’ scouting director when the team signed Valdez as an amateur in 2016. The two overlapped in Houston’s organization for a couple years.

On the trade side of the coin, there are a number of high-profile arms likely to be available. Much as it pains fans of pitching-hungry clubs, there’s minimal chance the Tigers will trade Tarik Skubal. The Brewers seem inclined to hang onto Freddy Peralta. Twins president Derek Falvey has said he plans to add to the roster until he’s told otherwise, which casts some doubt on the immediate availability of Joe Ryan and/or Pablo Lopez. But the market still includes names like MacKenzie Gore, Sonny Gray, Sandy Alcantara, Edward Cabrera and Mitch Keller, among others.

Broadly speaking, whether it’s via free agency or trade, there’s benefit in the Orioles adding a starter who’s controlled/signed beyond 2026. Rogers, as mentioned, is a free agent next winter. Righties Dean Kremer and Tyler Wells will be free agents after the 2027 season. There’s little doubting the pure talent of righty Grayson Rodriguez, but by the time Opening Day 2026 rolls around, he’ll be 20 months removed from pitching in a big league game. There’s very little long-term stability in the group.

As for the relief market, the number of qualified free agents is far lower. Devin Williams didn’t receive a QO from the Yankees. Robert Suarez didn’t get one from the Padres. Edwin Diaz was the only reliever tagged with a QO. That said, there are a number of a high-profile names from which to choose. Diaz, Suarez, Williams, Ryan Helsley, Raisel Iglesias, Kyle Finnegan and Pete Fairbanks all have extensive closing experience in the majors. If the preference is a one-year deal, 38-year-old Kenley Jansen keeps getting the job done even as he inches closer to his 40th birthday.

Whoever ends up emerging as the priority, payroll shouldn’t be an issue. The only players guaranteed anything beyond the 2026 season are O’Neill and catcher Samuel Basallo, who inked a long-term extension just days after making his MLB debut. They’re owed a combined $17.5MM in 2027. After ’27, Basallo’s eight-year, $67MM deal is the only contract on the books. It’d be a surprise to see the Orioles sign a high-end starter and a prominent reliever to multi-year deals, but only because they haven’t operated that way in quite some time. Payroll-wise, there’s no reason they couldn’t bring in a pair of prominent free agents.

Elias also suggested that the O’s will be on the lookout for an additional option in center field. While he praised Colton Cowser’s long-term outlook and expressed confidence that the 25-year-old (26 next March) can handle the position defensively, Baltimore’s president also noted that “you can’t get through the year with one center fielder.”

A reunion with Cedric Mullins seems unlikely, as he’ll presumably want everyday at-bats (or close to it) wherever he goes, while the O’s have O’Neill, Cowser and Dylan Beavers already in the mix for playing time, to say nothing of recently signed Leody Taveras and former top prospect Heston Kjerstad. Enrique Bradfield Jr., the No. 17 overall pick in 2023 and one of the system’s top prospects, reached Triple-A last year and could debut in 2026.

Part-time center field options on the market could include Lane Thomas, Harrison Bader or Chas McCormick, whom Elias drafted with the Astros back in 2017. Trade possibilities could include Arizona’s Alek Thomas or Colorado’s Brenton Doyle. If Twins ownership winds up pushing the front office to further scale back payroll, then not only would Lopez and Ryan be available — Byron Buxton may even be amenable to waiving his no-trade clause.

As always, this is far from an exhaustive list of targets for the Orioles or possibilities to fill those needs. In all likelihood, the O’s will be looking for multiple relievers, additional bench pieces and ample minor league depth in both the rotation and bullpen (at the very least). There’s been some suggestion that they could pursue a more prominent bat to hit in the middle of the lineup. The New York Post’s Jon Heyman called them a dark horse for Pete Alonso, noting that there’s “some interest” from the O’s. Be that as it may, it’d be a surprise if they did anything more than lurk on the periphery of his market to offer a soft landing if Alonso again struggles to find a long-term deal this winter.

13 Players Receive Qualifying Offers

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Thirteen players have received a qualifying offer this year, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. The list is as follows:

This year’s QO is valued at $22.025MM. All 13 players will have until Nov. 18 to decide whether to accept that one-year offer or decline and become a free agent. They can spend that time gauging the open market to determine interest in their services. If a player accepts the QO, he’ll be treated as a free agent signing and thus will be ineligible to be traded without his consent until June 15 of next year. If he declines, any team that signs him will be subject to draft and/or international bonus forfeitures, depending on its revenue-sharing and luxury tax status.

The bulk of the list was generally expected. Every recipient other than Torres and Imanaga was pegged as likely or a no-doubter to receive the QO on MLBTR’s annual lists of qualifying offer previews for position players and for pitchers. Torres was viewed as something of a long shot, at least on the MLBTR staff. He’s coming off a nice season in Detroit but struggled through a poor finish — perhaps in part due to injury — and wasn’t hit with a QO last offseason when coming off a comparable year at the plate in the Bronx.

Imanaga was listed as a borderline call on our preview as well. The Cubs declined a three-year, $57.75MM option on Imanaga last week. He subsequently declined a $15.25MM player option (which came with an additional player option at $15.25MM) — effectively opting out of a remaining two years and $30.5MM. The Cubs are banking on Imanaga also turning away one year at just over $22MM after turning down that remaining $30.5MM in guaranteed money.

The qualifying offer is determined each year by taking the average of the game’s 125 highest-paid players. We’ve already covered the penalties that each team would face for signing a qualified free agent, as well as the compensation each club would get for losing a qualified free agent to another team.

Among the notable free agents to not receive a qualifying offer are Lucas Giolito, Robert Suarez, Devin Williams and Jorge Polanco. Giolito might have received one had it not been for a late elbow issue that ended his season. Suarez has been excellent and just opted out of the remaining two years and $16MM on his contract, but he’ll be 35 next year. The Padres have been reducing payroll in recent seasons and likely didn’t want to risk Suarez locking in that weighty one-year sum. Williams would have received a QO with a typical season, but he struggled throughout much of the season’s first four months before a dominant finish. Polanco enjoyed a terrific rebound campaign but is 32 years old and was limited to DH work for much of the season due to ongoing injury issues.

The qualifying offer grants each of these free agents the chance at a notable one-year payday, though the majority of them will reject without much thought. Players like Tucker, Bichette, Schwarber, Valdez, Cease, Suarez and Diaz are likely to see comparable or larger (much larger, in Tucker’s case) salaries on multi-year deals in free agency. Even players like Grisham, who probably won’t land a $22MM annual value over multiple years, are still likely to reject. Major league free agents typically — though not always — prioritize long-term earning over short-term, higher-AAV pacts. A three- or four-year deal worth $14-16MM per year, for instance, is typically viewed as preferable to accepting one year at a higher rate.

There’s risk in declining the offer, of course. Teams are more reluctant to sign players who’ll cost them valuable draft picks and/or notable portions of their hard-capped bonus pool for international amateurs. Every offseason, there are a handful of free agents whose markets are weighed down by the burden of draft pick compensation. That typically applies to the “lower end” of the QO recipients. For top stars like Tucker, Bichette, etc. — draft/international forfeitures are simply considered the cost of doing business and don’t tend to have much (if any) impact on the player’s earning power.

Phillies Notes: Schwarber, Realmuto, Suarez

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The Phillies are keeping manager Rob Thomson in place for the 2026 season, but there are still some potentially notable changes coming to the roster. Kyle Schwarber, Ranger Suarez and J.T. Realmuto are among the team’s most notable free agents. Zack Wheeler’s health outlook is a question mark after he required thoracic outlet surgery. With Suarez and Wheeler’s status uncertain at best and Aaron Nola coming off an ERA north of 6.00, Philadelphia’s rotation isn’t the typical powerhouse to which we’ve become accustomed in recent seasons.

First and foremost, it sounds as though retaining Schwarber will be one of the top’s top priorities — if not the very top item on president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski’s to-do list. Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer writes that executives with other clubs expect owner John Middleton to do whatever it takes to keep Schwarber in the City of Brotherly Love. Matt Gelb of The Athletic suggests that Schwarber, who’ll turn 33 next spring, is planning to seek a five-year contract in free agency.

That’d be unheard of for a designated hitter at his age, but Schwarber’s 2025 season was the best of his career. He clubbed an NL-best 56 home runs en route to a .240/.365/.563 slash. Schwarber topped the century mark in both runs scores and runs driven in for a third consecutive season.

Schwarber’s 14.9% walk rate was 6.5 percentage points higher than the 8.4% league average, and while Schwarber’s 27.2% strikeout rate was also considerably higher than average (22.2%), it was also his lowest since 2021. The NL home run leader has also made immense gains against left-handed pitching in recent seasons, shedding platoon concerns that followed him earlier in his career. Schwarber was actually better against lefties than righties, hitting same-handed opponents at a .252/.366/.598 against clip.

If one were to set MLBTR’s Contract Tracker to show the number of position players commanding a five-year free agent deal beginning in their age-33 season, well … there aren’t any. In fact, the only free agent hitters in the past decade to sign even a four-year deal beginning at age 33 or later are Ben Zobrist ($56MM), Starling Marte ($78MM) and Josh Donaldson ($92MM). All are at least four years old now (10, in Zobrist’s case), and Schwarber is coming off such a prodigious offensive showing that he should top all of them with ease.

Gelb also suggests that Realmuto is expected to seek a three-year deal — a hefty ask considering he’ll turn 35 next spring. Again, looking to our Contract Tracker to find catchers who signed for three or more guaranteed years beginning with their age-35 season (or older) reveals only two: Carlos Ruiz’s three-year, $26MM deal to return to the Phillies all the way back in 2013 and Yadier Molina’s three-year, $60MM extension back in 2017.

Realmuto showed in 2025 that there’s still plenty left in the tank, but his days as a premium all-around catcher also look to be in the past. His .257/.315/.384 batting line was 6% worse than league-average, by measure of wRC+, but still checked in a bit better than that of the average catcher, specifically. He’s still plus when it comes to controlling the run game (29.7% caught-stealing rate), but Realmuto has now registered negative blocking grades (according to Statcast) in consecutive seasons and has seen his once-vaunted framing grades decline sharply.

The market offers little in the way of starting-caliber catchers, which could work to Realmuto’s benefit. Victor Caratini and Danny Jansen are arguably the most notable alternatives on the open market. The former has posted nice rate stats in the batter’s box but has primarily operated as a backup. The latter has now had back-to-back poor seasons at the plate. Potential non-tenders (e.g. Jonah Heim, Joey Bart) could add some change-of-scenery candidates to the list of options, and the trade market will surely offer a few names to ponder (e.g. Ryan Jeffers, Jake Rogers, Ivan Herrera).

Turning to Suarez, he made no secret of his hope to remain in Philadelphia. MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki writes that the left-hander was among the last players to leave the clubhouse after the 2025 season ended. He told reporters at the time: “I don’t want it to be the last year with the team.”

The 30-year-old Suarez has been a rock in the Philly rotation, averaging 26 starts per season across the past four years and pitching to a 3.59 ERA in that time. He’s been even better in the playoffs, with a sub-2.00 ERA in his postseason career. Suarez doesn’t throw especially hard, sitting 91-92 mph with his sinker, but he still consistently posts better-than-average strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates.

As it stands, the Phillies’ rotation will include Nola, Cristopher Sanchez and Jesus Luzardo. The team hasn’t yet provided a timetable for Wheeler’s recovery from his thoracic outlet procedure. Taijuan Walker is signed for $18MM in 2026, but the Phillies would probably welcome the opportunity to shed the some or all of that remaining sum. Top prospect Andrew Painter could make his long-awaited debut next year, but he posted uneven minor league results in his return from Tommy John surgery. Mick Abel was traded to the Twins in the Jhoan Duran swap.

Retaining Suarez would go a long way toward solidifying a rotation with an atypical number of red flags, but the Phillies already project for a nearly $228MM payroll before making any additions or bringing back any potential free agents (via RosterResource). It’s hard to imagine them keeping all three of those prominent impending free agents — particularly when there are other needs elsewhere on the roster.

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