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Players Avoiding Arbitration: 11/18/22

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The deadline to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players is tonight at 7:00pm Central. There will be a frenzy of non-tenders and trades today, but also some signings.

For many players, there’s little pressure to agree to terms this week. The deadline for exchanging figures isn’t until January 13, with the hearings taking place in March. However, players that are borderline non-tender candidates might get a low-ball offer at this time, with the team hoping that the looming possibility of a non-tender compels the player to accept. As such, deals at this part of the baseball calendar have a higher likelihood of coming in under projections.

One new wrinkle from the new collective bargaining agreement is that all of these deals will be guaranteed. Previously, teams could cut a player during Spring Training and only pay a portion of the agreed-upon figure. However, the new CBA stipulates that any player who settles on a salary without going to a hearing will be subject to full termination pay, even if released prior to the beginning of the season.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected salaries for each team’s arbitration-eligible players last month but, as mentioned, it’s not uncommon for the deals agreed to at this time to come in below projections. This post may be updated later as more agreements come in…

Latest

  • The Tigers announced agreement on a deal with outfielder Austin Meadows. Financial terms are undisclosed. Meadows was projected for a $4MM salary. He’s coming off an injury-plagued first season in Detroit but is arbitration eligible twice more. [UPDATE: Meadows signed for $4.3MM, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post.]
  • The Braves avoided arbitration with Mike Soroka on a $2.8MM contract, the club announced. It’s the same salary he’s made in each of the past two seasons, which is typical for an arbitration-eligible player who didn’t see any MLB action but was nevertheless tendered a contract. Soroka hasn’t pitched since 2020 on account of a pair of Achilles ruptures and some late-season elbow soreness, but he’s expected to compete for a rotation spot in Spring Training. He’s arbitration eligible once more next winter.

Earlier Deals

  • The Pirates and infielder/outfielder Miguel Andujar agreed at $1.525MM, per Murray. Andujar was claimed off waivers from the Yankees in September.
  • The Padres announced that they have agreed to a one-year contract with left-hander Jose Castillo. The terms have not been disclosed.
  • The Diamondbacks announced they’ve agreed to a deal with reliever Cole Sulser. Financial terms haven’t been disclosed, but Sulser has been projected at $1MM. Arizona recently claimed him off waivers from the Marlins.
  • The Cubs and right-hander Adrian Sampson agreed to a $1.9MM salary, while fellow right-hander Rowan Wick will take home a $1.55MM salary in 2023, according to Jordan Bastion of MLB.com. Sampson broke out in 2022, finishing with a 3.11 ERA across 104 1/3 innings. Wick tossed 64 innings of relief, finishing up with a 4.22 ERA.
  • The Yankees and right-hander Lou Trivino agreed to a salary of $4.1MM, per Feinsand. Trivino had been a solid reliever for Oakland over the past couple of years but struggled to a 6.47 ERA with them in 2022. He was dealt to the Yankees and then righted the ship with a 1.66 ERA the rest of the way.
  • The Rockies and Brent Suter avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $3MM salary, per Murray. Suter was claimed off waivers from the Brewers earlier today.
  • The Brewers and righty Matt Bush have agreed at $1.85MM, per Murray. Bush came over from the Rangers in a deadline deal. He posted a 2.95 ERA prior to the deal and a 4.30 after.
  • The Marlins and Dylan Floro are in agreement on a contract for 2023, reports Craig Mish of the Miami Herald. He’ll make $3.9MM, Mish reports. Floro tossed 53 2/3 innings in 2022 with a 3.02 ERA.
  • The Brewers and right-hander Adrian Houser agreed on a $3.6MM salary, per Robert Murray of FanSided. The ground ball specialist saw his ERA jump from 3.22 in 2021 to 4.73 this year as his ground ball rate dropped from 59% to 46.7%. He’s likely the club’s sixth starter going into the winter and could jump into the rotation if someone gets injured.
  • The Phillies and right-hander Sam Coonrod have agreed on a salary of $775K, per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. He posted a 4.04 ERA in 2021 but was limited to just 12 2/3 innings this year due to a shoulder strain.
  • The Tigers and left-hander Tyler Alexander agreed on a salary of $1.875MM, per Murray. Alexander got into 27 games in 2022, 17 of those being starts. His 4.81 ERA was certainly on the high side, but he had a 3.81 in 2021.
  • The Yankees and shortstop Isiah Kiner-Falefa avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $6M salary. You can read more about that here.
  • The Braves and left-hander Tyler Matzek avoided arbitration by agreeing to a two-year deal. You can read more about that here.
  • The Giants and outfielder Mike Yastrzemski avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $6.1MM deal, per Jeff Passan of ESPN. He first qualified for arbitration a year ago as a Super Two player and earned $3.7MM in 2022. He took a step back at the plate this year with a line of .214/.305/.392 but still provided value with his glovework.

Padres Meet With Kodai Senga

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The Padres had a meeting with highly sought-after free agent pitcher Koudai Senga in San Diego yesterday, according to Dennis Lin of The Athletic. He recently met with the Mets in New York, and has been drawing interest from a number of other teams, including the Angels, Red Sox, Rangers, Blue Jays, Mariners, Cubs and Dodgers.

Senga is seeking to make the move from Japan to the US after a sterling season in Nippon Professional Baseball. The right-hander tossed 144 innings of 1.94 ERA ball across 22 starts for the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks, striking out batters 27.5% of the time and walking them at an 8.6% rate. It’s an ideal platform year for a hurler who has been one Japan’s best for the past decade, and in over eleven seasons he boasts a 2.59 ERA across almost 1,100 innings.

The 29-year-old (30 in January) combines an upper-90s fast ball with a split-finger pitch to great effect, although there have been some concerns raised over his command and breaking pitch. With that being said, his track record in Japan speaks for itself, and it’s not surprising there’s a lengthy line of potential suitors showing interest.

For the Padres, Senga would be a boost to a rotation that already features Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, Joe Musgrove, and the recently extender Nick Martinez. As Lin notes, Senga is close with Darvish and played with both Martinez and reliever Robert Suarez in Japan, so there’s some familiar faces in that pitching corps there that certainly wouldn’t hurt when trying to sell Senga on San Diego.

As Senga is a true free agent after reaching nine years of service time in Japan, his signing won’t require the acquiring team to pay a posting fee to Fukuoka. MLBTR predicted a five-year, $75MM deal for Senga recently. According to RosterResource, the Padres 2023 payroll is already projected to be right around their 2022 mark, although owner Peter Seidler hasn’t been afraid to make a big splash in recent seasons, so it certainly wouldn’t be a surprise to see their payroll increase next year.

Paul Goldschmidt Wins NL MVP

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Cardinals first baseman Paul Goldschmidt has been named the National League’s Most Valuable Player, according to an announcement from the Baseball Writers Association of America. He was followed in the voting by Manny Machado of the Padres and his teammate Nolan Arenado.

Though he’s come close many times, this is the first MVP award for the veteran, who just turned 35 in September. Though he’s older than the typical prime years of most athletes, he had arguably the best campaign of his career in 2022. He hit 35 home runs and produced a .317/.404/.578 batting line. That production was an incredible 77% better than the league average hitter, as evidenced by his 177 wRC+. When combined with his solid defense at first base, he was considered to be worth 7.1 wins above replacement in the eyes of FanGraphs and 7.8 in the estimation of Baseball Reference.

Goldschmidt finished second among qualified NL batters in on-base percentage, trailing only Freddie Freeman. He led the league in slugging and tied for fifth in longballs. Along the way, he was named to his seventh All-Star game. Goldschmidt secured a fifth career Silver Slugger award and has appeared on MVP ballots each season going back to 2015. He’s under contract for two more years on the five-year extension he inked shortly after St. Louis acquired him from the Diamondbacks in a franchise-altering trade.

Machado secured a runner-up finish, the highest of his career to date. He’s now gotten into the top five in the voting on four separate occasions, including two of his four seasons in San Diego. He hit .298/.366/.531 with 32 homers and 37 doubles, appearing in 150 games. Machado finished 7th in the NL in on-base percentage and fourth in slugging. He earned his sixth career All-Star nod in the process.

Arenado picked up his 10th straight Gold Glove award this year with a typically excellent season at the hot corner. He also had arguably the best offensive year of his career, putting up a .293/.358/.533 line over 620 plate appearances. Only Goldschmidt and Mookie Betts topped him in slugging, while he finished ninth in on-base percentage. Arenado secured his seventh All-Star selection and fourth top-five MVP finish.

Goldschmidt picked up 22 of 30 first-place votes, while Machado secured seven votes. Arenado was the other player who got a first-place nod. Freeman finished in fourth overall and was penciled into six ballots in second place. Betts rounded out the top five, while Mets star Pete Alonso (who finished eighth) was the only other player to get a second-place vote. Austin Riley, J.T. Realmuto, Alonso, Francisco Lindor and Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara placed sixth through tenth, respectively.

Full voting breakdown available here.

Padres Re-Sign Robert Suarez

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Nov. 17: The Padres formally announced a five-year deal for Suarez, which indeed includes an opt-out after the 2025 season.

Nov. 12: The Padres have made a massive strike to keep one of their top free agents. San Diego is reportedly in agreement with reliever Robert Suarez on a five-year, $46MM guarantee that allows him to opt out after the 2025 campaign. Suarez, a Don Nomura client, had declined a $5MM player option earlier this week.

That was a formality, as he was always likely to land a significant multi-year pact on the open market. Just as the time came for him to potentially speak with other teams, he and the Padres pushed a new deal across the finish line.

The new contract will reportedly pay Suarez $10MM in each of the next three seasons. If he were to opt out after 2025, he’d be leaving $16MM on the table, which breaks down as $8MM salaries in each of the 2026 and 2027 campaigns. There is also some notable annual bonus money available related to games finished, and those incentives kick in whenever Suarez finishes at least 25 games in a season. The bonuses max out at $3MM if he reaches 55 games finished.

Suarez had never played in the majors before this year. The Venezuela native had spent five seasons at Japan’s highest level, working late innings for the Fukuoka Softbank Hawks. The Friars signed him to a two-year deal last winter that allowed him to opt out after the 2022 season, taking a shot on a live arm with a history of success in Japan. The gamble his stuff would play against big league hitters paid off in spades, as he emerged as one of manager Bob Melvin’s top late-inning weapons.

During his first MLB appearance, Suarez walked two batters and hit a third. He failed to record an out and all three runners came around to score. It was a nightmarish debut, but the 31-year-old bounced back in a huge way. From the second day of the season onward, he pitched to a 1.70 ERA through 47 2/3 innings. Suarez punched out an elite 32.4% of batters faced along the way. His 10.1% walk percentage was still a bit higher than ideal, but he had no issue overpowering opponents while brandishing eye-popping stuff.

Suarez averaged 97-98 MPH on his fastball, backed up by an upper-80s changeup that served as his put-away offering. He only picked up one save, but he held 11 leads and worked in high-leverage situations throughout the year. Aside from the Opening Day blip, the only negative in his regular season showing was a two-month absence due to right knee inflammation. His stuff was no worse for wear upon his return in mid-August and the Friars clearly don’t harbor any concerns about his long-term health projection.

The postseason ended on a sour note for both Suarez and the Padres, as he was on the mound for what proved to be a season-ending home run allowed to Bryce Harper in the NLCS. He’d pitched his way out of a number of jams earlier in the playoffs before that dramatic at-bat against Harper, and he finished the postseason with a respectable three runs allowed in nine innings. The power stuff he showed along the way bolstered his market value on the eve of his return trip to free agency, and Suarez now cashes in with one of the best free agent deals for a non-closing reliever.

Suarez becomes the fourth reliever in the past decade to land a five-year guarantee. The previous three — Kenley Jansen, Aroldis Chapman and Edwin Díaz (who inked his deal last week) — each had closing experience and multiple seasons of big league success under their belt. That’s also true of players like Wade Davis, Liam Hendriks, Mark Melancon and Raisel Iglesias — who all bested a $46MM total over four or fewer seasons. Suarez’s track record of one-year dominance in the middle innings perhaps most closely compares to his now-teammate, Drew Pomeranz, who landed $34MM over four years during the 2018-19 offseason after an incredible second half in his platform campaign.

It’s a strong milestone for Suarez and his representatives that also keeps him with the club that gave him his first big league opportunity. He’ll return as a high-leverage piece for Melvin, joining Josh Hader, Luis García and a hopefully healthy Pomeranz in the late-game mix. Meanwhile, the successive early re-signings of Díaz and Suarez remove arguably the two best relievers from this winter’s free agent class.

The specific financial breakdown has yet to be reported. The Friars currently have around $203MM on next year’s books, in the estimation of Roster Resource. Their projected luxury tax ledger sits just shy of $225MM, and Suarez’s deal will add another $9.2MM to that tab. A contract’s luxury tax hit is determined by its average annual value, and the final two years of the deal are still considered guaranteed even though Suarez will have the chance to opt out of the arrangement. The Padres look likely to surpass next season’s $233MM base tax threshold, but ownership and the front office have shown no qualms about doing so in an effort to build one of the best rosters in the National League.

Jon Morosi of MLB.com was first to report Suarez and the Padres were in agreement on a five-year, $46MM deal. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported the specific salary breakdown.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Padres, Nick Martinez Agree To Three-Year Deal

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Nov. 16, 9:46pm: Lin reports the full contract breakdown, which goes well beyond a traditional deal. According to the Athletic, Martinez will make $10MM next season. At the end of the year, the Friars have to decide whether to trigger successive $16MM team options for the 2024-25 campaigns — essentially a two-year, $32MM option. If the team declines those options, Martinez will have to decide whether to exercise successive $8MM player options — a two-year, $16MM guarantee — or test free agency next offseason. The deal also contains various yet-unknown incentives and escalators that could boost the price of both his 2023 base salary and those of the option years.

It’s an atypical but not completely unheard of contract structure. The deal resembles one signed by James Paxton with the Red Sox last winter, which gave Boston a two-year club option that, if declined, would leave Paxton to decide on a player option or trip to free agency.

It’s technically a three-year, $26MM guarantee, as previously reported. Player options are treated as guaranteed money, so that $16MM plus his $10MM base salary for next year counts as the $26MM total. For luxury tax purposes, it’s calculated as an $8.67MM average annual value. However, if the Padres were to exercise their option, Martinez would be paid $42MM over the next three years (plus any incentives he reaches). Depending on the option decisions, he could reach free agency again next offseason having collected $10MM or play things out in San Diego for three years at either $26MM or $42MM.

Nov. 16, 7:43am: Jon Heyman of the New York Post tweets the deal is a three-year, $26MM contract with incentives to boost that base-level guarantee.

Nov. 15: The Padres are in agreement with free agent righty Nick Martinez, tweets Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Ken Rosenthal and Dennis Lin of the Athletic (Twitter link) were first to report the sides were making progress on a new contract. Martinez, an Octagon client, had opted out of the final three years on his previous deal with San Diego last week. It’s a new three-year deal for Martinez, Lin reports (Twitter link). Unsurprisingly, he’s expected to top the $18MM he left on the table when he triggered his opt-out provision.

The 32-year-old will stick with the organization that signed him to a four-year guarantee last offseason. That deal, a surprisingly strong sum for a player who’d spent the prior three seasons in Japan, reunited the former Ranger hurler with longtime Texas executive A.J. Preller, who’s running baseball operations in San Diego.

Preller and his staff’s affinity for Martinez paid off, as the Fordham product acclimated well in his return to the big leagues. He began the year in the rotation, starting 10 of 12 appearances through the middle of June. He posted a solid 4.03 ERA in 60 1/3 innings, striking out a roughly average 21.9% of opposing hitters. Martinez walked batters at a slightly elevated 10.4% clip but was a generally solid back-of-the-rotation stabilizer.

The Friars nevertheless elected to kick Martinez to the bullpen at that point, preferring to rely on a rotation of Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, Blake Snell, Sean Manaea, Mike Clevinger and MacKenzie Gore. Even after Gore was injured and subsequently traded to the Nationals, San Diego kept Martinez in relief. That’s in large part due to his effectiveness, as he was particularly valuable for the club working in shorter stints. In 46 innings across 35 appearances from that point forward, he posted a 2.74 ERA while holding opponents to a putrid .211/.282/.333 line in 188 plate appearances.

Dominant as that showing was, Martinez didn’t experience the same kind of boost most pitchers do upon working in shorter stints. His strikeout rate actually dipped relative to his early-season mark, falling to 20.2%. His velocity did jump, but the bigger change in his profile was improved control. Martinez only walked 7.4% of batters faced upon a full-time conversion to relief; he also induced grounders on almost half the batted balls he allowed during that stretch.

Altogether, Martinez’s return season in the big leagues consisted of 106 1/3 innings of 3.47 ERA ball. He fared better in the bullpen but had success in both roles. Heading into his age-32 campaign, he and his representatives were faced with one of the tougher opt-out decisions of the winter. The three remaining years on his deal contained a total of $19.5MM in guaranteed money while affording him the chance to opt out after each season. He chose to do so after 2022, collecting a $1.5MM buyout while giving him the chance to explore offers from other teams.

Even as he hit the market, Martinez and the Padres seemed to have mutual interest in a reunion from the beginning. Perhaps the bigger potential stumbling block than financial terms was the hurler’s desire to get a full-time rotation opportunity. Preller confirmed at last week’s GM Meetings that Martinez preferred to be a starter, but he stopped short of publicly committing him a rotation spot. Dennis Lin of the Athletic wrote at the time some in the organization believed Martinez was a better fit for relief work, but it seems likely the Friars will at least give him a chance to compete for a starting job next spring.

The enviable rotation depth San Diego possessed six months ago is now far thinner. Gore was traded, while Manaea and Clevinger struggled down the stretch and look likely to depart via free agency. Musgrove signed a five-year extension and is locked in atop the rotation for the future. Darvish and Snell are each under contract for one more season and presently look as if they’ll occupy the second and third spots, although Preller’s affinity for bold roster shake-ups at least raises the possibility one of those two could be dealt. Even if they return, Martinez would join Adrián Morejón, Jay Groome, Ryan Weathers and Reiss Knehr among the internal candidates for a back-of-the-rotation spot. Further bolstering the starting staff figures to be a priority for Preller and his group, even if they plan to legitimately consider Martinez for one such role.

Financial terms of the agreement are not yet clear. The Friars presently have around $204MM in estimated commitments for 2023, not including Martinez, per Roster Resource. Their projected luxury tax ledger is around $225MM, not far shy of the $233MM base tax threshold. It looks likely the Friars will exceed the CBT for a third straight season in 2023 — particularly since the rotation, first base and left field remain areas in question for the win-now club in the coming months.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Tigers Hire Michael Brdar And Keith Beauregard As Hitting Coaches

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The Tigers announced a batch of additions to their coaching staff, including Michael Brdar as major league hitting coach, Keith Beauregard as major league hitting coach, James Rowson as assistant major league hitting coach, Robin Lund as assistant major league pitching coach and Ryne Eubanks as head athletic trainer.

Brdar, 28, has proven to be a popular name for coaching positions in his young career. As a player, he was drafted by the Cardinals in 2017 and got some action at rookie ball that year. That was the end of his playing days, with Brdar then joining the University of Michigan, where he played college ball, as a coach. He followed that up by getting hired as the Giants’ minor league hitting coordinator.

One year ago, he was hired away from the Giants by the Padres, who made him hitting coach at the major league level. After one season in San Diego, he’ll now head back to the state of his alma mater. The Tigers’ new president of baseball operations Scott Harris was general manager of the Giants until recently, meaning he presumably was aware of Brdar’s work in that organization. Joining Brdar as hitting coach for the Tigers will be Keith Beauregard, who had previously been coaching in the Dodgers’ system. Those two will be joined by James Rowson, who had been working as bench coach for the Marlins and has had some interest for managerial openings in recent years.

Hitting will likely be a key focus for the club after that was a huge weakness for them in 2022. Just about every player in the lineup underperformed at the plate, from veterans to prospects. As a collective, Detroit hitters produced a batting line of .231/.286/.346. The resulting 81 wRC+ indicates they were 19% below league average, the worst such mark in the majors. Their 110 home runs were also dead last by a significant margin, as the Guardians were 29th with 127. For a team that entered 2022 with aspirations of ending their rebuild and competing for a playoff spot, those results were disappointing to say the least.

The Padres will now have a vacancy in their own hitting coach position, though Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports that Ryan Flaherty is expected to take over the role. Flaherty played in the big leagues from 2012 to 2019 but has since transitioned into the coaching side of the game. The Padres hired him as quality control coach going into 2020 and he has remained with the club since then. The Mets tried to pry him away to be their bench coach a year ago, though the Padres denied their request to interview him.

Padres Select Tom Cosgrove

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The Padres have selected the contract of left hander Tom Cosgrove and added him to the 40-man roster.

A 12th round pick in 2017, Cosgrove initially worked as a starting pitcher in the Padres system, but was moved to a relief role last year. He split time this season between Double-A and Triple-A. His promotion to the top level of the minor leagues came after he tossed 25 2/3 innings of 2.45 ERA ball, striking out 38.2% of batters and walking 12.7%. While the strikeout rate was impressive, he certainly benefited from an 88.2% LOB rate and a .205 BABIP.

He struggled a bit at Triple-A, although he still managed to strike out 33.6% of batters faced. However, his walks remained an issue and he gave up a home run every five innings. On the whole, he finished with a 4.80 ERA across 30 innings at the higher level.

While Cosgrove hasn’t exactly dominated the minor leagues, the Padres 40-man roster stands at 34 after this addition, so it certainly didn’t hurt to add Cosgrove and avoid losing him in the Rule 5 draft. As a lefty with strong strikeout numbers, Cosgrove could provide some helpful bullpen depth next season.

Rays Notes: 40-Man Roster, Trades, Choi, Kiermaier

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Several teams are facing a 40-man roster crunch this winter, with the Rays in particular facing a lot of tough decisions due to the depth in their talented farm system.  As such, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (Twitter links) reports that the Rays have been “in advanced trade negotiations” and could make multiple deals before Tuesday’s deadline to set 40-man rosters in advance of the Rule 5 Draft.  The Reds, Cubs, Mets, and Angels are among the teams who have called the Rays in search of pitching.

Any number of options could be on the table for a Tampa Bay front office that is always seeking roster and payroll flexibility.  It is possible and even likely that the Rays might not swing any major deals, as Tampa might first be exploring the trade value of any players at the back end of their 40-man roster.  Before leaving these players unprotected or maybe even non-tendering them or designating them for assignment, the Rays first want to check if anything can be obtained in exchange for these somewhat expendable pieces.

A more interesting wrinkle would see the Rays discussing trades involving prospects or part-time players who might also be a bit superfluous within the organization.  Last November, the Rays dealt Louis Head, Mike Brosseau, Brent Honeywell Jr., and Tobias Myers in separate trades in the week prior to the 40-man deadline.  Of that group, only Brosseau had some success at the MLB level in 2022, posting some solid numbers in a reserve role with the Brewers.

Of course, the biggest headline-grabber for the Rays would be a trade involving a regular on their Major League roster, and this possibility certainly can’t be ruled out given Tampa’s history of aggressive deal-making.  The Rays have a very large arbitration class that they’ve already reduced to “only” 16 remaining players, after trading Ji-Man Choi to the Pirates and parting ways with Nick Anderson and Roman Quinn.  None of the arbitration-eligibles are projected to earn truly huge money, but every dollar counts for the budget-conscious Rays, and Yandy Diaz ($5.4MM in projected salary), Ryan Yarbrough ($4.2MM) and Randy Arozarena ($4MM) are the most expensive of the bunch.

Yonny Chirinos is projected for $1.6MM and Shawn Armstrong for $1.4MM, and those two hurlers stand out since Morosi reported earlier this week that the Rays were discussing Chirinos, Armstrong, and Yarbrough during the GM Meetings.  It isn’t known if the Reds, Angels, Cubs, or Mets were focused on any of this trio in particular, but any of those pitchers could be potential fits for teams with rotation or bullpen needs.  Chirinos could carry the most intrigue, as the right-hander pitched well in 2018-19 before injuries (a Tommy John surgery and a fractured elbow) limited him to just 18 1/3 MLB innings since the start of the 2020 campaign.

Choi’s projected $4.5MM salary certainly played a role in his move to Pittsburgh, and the Rays were known to be talking to more than just the Pirates about the first baseman.  Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports that the Padres and Astros also had some interest, with Houston revisiting their interest in Choi from prior to the trade deadline.

The Astros ended up adding Trey Mancini to bolster themselves at first base, but since Mancini and Yuli Gurriel are both free agents, it makes sense that the Astros would again check in on a past target.  Likewise, the Padres have a need at first base with Josh Bell hitting the open market.  Choi is scheduled for free agency himself next winter and thus probably wouldn’t have been seen a longer-term add for either team, or even a full-time option.  Either Houston or San Diego might have opted to just play Choi against right-handed pitching.

Also from Topkin’s notes column, he had an interesting wrinkle to the end of Kevin Kiermaier’s tenure in Tampa Bay.  There was no doubt that the Rays were going to buy out Kiermaier for $2.5MM rather than exercise his $13MM club option for 2023, yet Kiermaier said that he heard an unknown team had some talks with the Rays about a veritable sign-and-trade deal.  In this scenario, the Rays would have exercised the club option and then swapped Kiermaier to this mystery team.

Given that Kiermaier is coming off a season shortened by hip surgery, it doesn’t seem likely that the other club would’ve been too keen to give up an asset to absorb that entire $13MM contract.  It is more probable that the other team perhaps offered another undesirable contract in return to help offset the cost, or maybe had Kiermaier involved as part of a larger trade package.  In any case, the Rays weren’t interested, and preferred to just decline the option — perhaps with an eye towards re-signing Kiermaier at a lower price.

NL West Notes: Bellinger, Longoria, Diamondbacks, Johnson

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With former MVP Cody Bellinger projected to earn $18.1MM in his last year of arbitration eligibility, there has been plenty of speculation that the 27-year-old might not be tendered a contract.  Los Angeles president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman was non-committal about Belllinger’s situation, telling reporters (including Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register) that the Dodgers “still very much believe in Belli’s ability,” and that the club has “time to work through what everything looks like” prior to Friday’s deadline.

Unsurprisingly, Bellinger’s agent Scott Boras was quick to downplay the idea of a non-tender, as Boras highlighted his client’s excellent defense, throwing arm, baserunning ability, and age (27).  “You just don’t find talents like this….It’s really about getting his strength back so he can repeat his skill level,” Boras said, noting the injuries that may have caused Bellinger’s huge dropoff at the plate over the last two seasons.  Bellinger has hit only .193/.256/.355 in 900 plate appearances since the start of the 2021 campaign.  However, both Boras and Friedman pointed to the idea that a normal and healthy offseason could help Bellinger get on track, as Bellinger’s regular work with the Dodgers’ hitting coaches and conditioning staff was interrupted last winter by the lockout.

Other notes from around the NL West…

  • Evan Longoria said last month that the Giants, Rays, and Diamondbacks were his preferred destinations for his final season, with the D’Backs listed alongside Longoria’s two former teams because the veteran third baseman has a home in Arizona.  As such, Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic reports that the Diamondbacks are indeed expected to check in on Longoria in free agency.  The 37-year-old has hit a solid .252/.333/.466 with 27 homers since the start of the 2021 season, but injuries have limited Longoria to 589 PA and 170 games.  Josh Rojas’ versatility would allow for Longoria to get some time at third base and at DH, and the D’Backs are looking for right-handed hitting in general.  As Piecoro notes, Longoria has some extra appeal as a veteran leader on a young team.
  • Also from Piecoro’s post, Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen told reporters that “we have had half the league, at least, talk about our outfielders.”  With so many left-handed hitting young outfielders on the roster, it isn’t surprising that teams are eager to discuss trades about Arizona’s surplus.  However, Hazen quieted rumblings that a trade would occur soon, saying “we’re just starting to get a handle on what type of offers we could make and what makes sense for us to help our major league team.”
  • It doesn’t appear as though Pierce Johnson will re-sign with the Padres, a source tells Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune.  Elbow tendinitis cost Johnson most of the 2022 campaign, as he pitched only 14 1/3 innings over 15 appearances in the regular season and then 4 1/3 more frames during the playoffs.  The 31-year-old Johnson had strong (3.09 ERA, 32.1% strikeout rate) numbers over 78 2/3 innings in 2020-21, albeit with a high 11.1% walk rate.  Since San Diego seems to be moving on, Johnson and his excellent curveball could be an intriguing bounce-back target for the many teams looking for bullpen help in free agency.

The Opener: Relief Market, Kershaw, Yoshida

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As the offseason continues to roll along, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on throughout the day today:

1. Implications Of Diaz, Suarez Deals

The relief market has moved quickly in the early going of this offseason, with perhaps the top two options, Edwin Diaz and Robert Suarez, already off the market. Both relievers re-signed with the Mets and Padres, respectively, but the more notable piece of these signings is the contracts they both managed to secure. In signing a five-year, $102MM contract, Diaz became the first reliever to receive a $100MM guarantee or an AAV of $20MM, though given his superlative platform season (1.31 ERA/0.90 FIP), there was never any doubt that he would get paid handsomely. Suarez, while a top relief arm in this offseason’s class in his own right, pales in comparison to Diaz, with a 2.27 ERA and 3.32 FIP in 47 2/3 innings in 2022, his first major league season after playing the first six years of his career in Japan. Despite his lack of major-league experience and the fact that he’ll play 2023 at the age of 32, Suarez still managed to receive a five year, $46MM deal. While the AAV is about in line with what most would have expected, San Diego’s decision to sign Suarez to a deal that guarantees him money through his age-36 season certainly registers as a surprise, particularly given that there’s also an opt-out in the deal. With perhaps the two best relievers off the market, it will be interesting to see how the rest of the relief market plays out from here. Kenley Jansen, Rafael Montero, and Taylor Rogers represent some of the top options still available, and while they were projected for just two or three year deals in MLBTR’s Top 50 list yesterday, it’s reasonable to wonder if the Suarez deal indicates the relief market may be stronger than had previously been expected.

2. Kershaw, Dodgers Close To Deal

Reports last night indicated that the Dodgers were close to re-signing longtime ace Clayton Kershaw to another one-year contract similar to the one he received last offseason, and it’s possible said contract could be agreed upon as soon as today. This deal comes as no surprise, as Kershaw had previously mentioned that he was likely to continue playing in 2023, and despite rumors last year that he may sign with his hometown Texas Rangers, the more widely held expectation has been that if Kershaw is playing anywhere next season, it will be in Los Angeles. Should the Kershaw deal become official, the Dodgers will have additional security in their rotation headed into the meat of the offseason. Tyler Anderson (to whom the Dodgers extended a qualifying offer yesterday) and Andrew Heaney joined Kershaw in free agency after the 2022 season, leaving the club in need of more arms. Still, it’s reasonable to expect L.A. to continue searching for rotation help even with Kershaw returning for next year, particularly given his increasingly frequent trips to the injured list in recent years.

3. Masataka Yoshida Garnering Interest

It was reported last week that Nippon Professional Baseball star Masataka Yoshida may be posted by his team, the Japan Series champion Orix Buffaloes, and rumors have only grown since then. In particular, the folks at the New York Post seem confident not only that Yoshida will indeed be posted — Joel Sherman suggests such a move is expected to come next month — but that he will find considerable interest from MLB clubs. Sherman notes that Yoshida “is going to draw a lot of interest”, while Jon Heyman indicates that the Yankees, in particular, may be interested in Yoshida, whether or not they manage to re-sign Aaron Judge. Heyman notes that Yoshida’s lefty bat could help bring balance to a Yankees lineup that’s heavily right-handed, and stands to become even more so should they not re-sign first baseman Anthony Rizzo. Should Yoshida be posted, he would join the corner outfield market as one of the younger, more intriguing options behind Judge. Speculatively speaking, teams such as the Blue Jays, Rangers, and Mariners are among the many who could have interest in Yoshida.

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