Rays, Giants Still Discussing Relief Pitching In Trade Talks
The Rays remain engaged with the Giants in trade talks regarding San Francisco relievers, according to MLB.com’s Jon Morosi. Prior reports have connected the clubs on pitching, though the circumstances have since changed for both organizations.
While the Giants are increasingly a threat to hold pat, owing to a still-ongoing surge, the club continues to discuss sell-side or repositioning swaps with other organizations. The San Francisco organization is facing a tough position with only the Wild Card in play.
Down in Tampa Bay, the movement has been in the opposite direction but the outlook is generally not all that different. The Rays have long since given back the nice lead they staked out in the AL East and will face a tough test just to snag a Wild Card.
Given the respective situations, it’s an intriguing to wonder whether the teams could find common ground on a swap that isn’t a strict “buy” or “sell” for either side. The Giants could relievers to give while their position-player mix (especially in the infield) isn’t exactly laden with sure things. On the other side, the Rays continue to look into pitching while thinking about how best to take advantage of an infield overload.
The Rays’ abundance of infielders at and near the MLB level — with former Giants third baseman Matt Duffy potentially among them if he can finally wrap up his rehab — creates both opportunity and 40-man roster pressure. (That’s not to say that Duffy is a possible trade piece. Morosi mentions Joey Wendle and Michael Brosseau, though only speculatively.) Of course, the depth situation can all change in an instant. The Rays are still waiting to learn more about the status of Yandy Diaz after he fouled a ball off his foot last night.
It’s not really evident at this point precisely which players have been chatted about between the San Francisco and Tampa Bay orgs. Frankly, it’s possible to imagine quite a few different scenarios that might conceivably be of interest. There’s also still a chance that the course of play over the next week will shift the Giants into a selling stance, or even push the Rays away from a buying approach. If both teams attempt to chart a middle course, though, they could make for an interesting match.
Giants Designate Derek Holland, Ryder Jones
The Giants have designated left-hander Derek Holland for assignment, Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area reports. In addition, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle tweets that Ryder Jones has also been designated for assignment, clearing a second spot on the Giants’ 40-man roster.
Holland, formerly with the Rangers and White Sox, joined the Giants entering 2018 on a minor league contract. He was coming off multiple rough seasons at the time, but Holland made his way to San Francisco last year and enjoyed a career renaissance. Holland’s output a year ago was enough to convince new president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi to make the 32-year-old his most expensive free-agent signing in a modest winter for the club.
The Giants inked Holland to a one-year, $7MM guarantee with a matching club option for 2020. They’re now likely have to eat the approximately $2.67MM remaining on Holland’s deal, as it’s difficult to believe a team would take on him and his money in light of the subpar production he has put up this season.
Holland got off to such a poor start out of the Giants’ rotation this season that they shifted him to their bullpen. Neither job has worked out that well in 2019 for Holland, though. Across 68 2/3 innings, Holland has pitched to a 5.90 ERA/6.08 FIP with 9.31 K/9, 4.59 BB/9 and a 41.4 percent groundball rate. Home runs helped lead to the death of Holland’s Giants tenure, as he yielded them on 23 percent of fly balls this year en route to his designation. He did, however, stymie same-handed hitters, who batted .182/.276/.195 against him. With that in mind, perhaps a team will take a chance on Holland as a LOOGY. Regardless, his next deal will likely be of the minor league variety.
Jones, meanwhile, has largely failed to live up to expectations after the Giants made him a second-round draft selection in 2013. With just four home runs and a .133 ISO in his Major League career, he has yet to show the power that is necessary for a lumbering corner infielder. Jones’s struggles this season—the first under Zaidi—may have sealed his fate; the 25-year-old has managed just a .529 OPS across several levels of the minor leagues, though injuries have limited his availability, having appeared in just 12 games. Jones could be an intriguing case for teams eyeing the waiver wire, given his draft history, age, and raw power.
Pitcher Notes: Braves, Stroman, Mets, Wheeler, Fulmer, Giants
The Braves were among the teams present to scout Marcus Stroman’s latest outing, per David O’Brien of The Athletic (via Twitter). The Braves are in many ways the perfect partner for a team with a moveable asset like the Blue Jays, as Atlanta is flush with near-ready major league arms, but lacking the consistency it desires as a team positioned for the playoffs. The asking price for Stroman is said to be high – in the area of what the Pirates surrendered for Chris Archer – but Toronto is likely taking the call even if Atlanta starts with one of its ready-but-struggling arms, depending on whom the Blue Jays favor from the group of Max Fried, Bryse Wilson, Sean Newcomb, Touki Toussaint and Kyle Wright. Landing in Atlanta would reunite Stroman with Braves general manager Alex Anthopoulos, who was the Jays’ GM when they drafted the hurler 22nd overall in 2012.
More on a few other noteworthy pitchers…
- Mets righty and prime trade candidate Zack Wheeler went on the injured list with a shoulder impingement on July 15, but it doesn’t appear that’s going to stand in the way of a possible deadline deal. Wheeler could throw a full bullpen session Sunday, Mike Puma of the New York Post reports. If that goes well, there’s potential for Wheeler to return in time to make two starts by the July 31 cutoff for trades, Puma observes. As things stand, the Mets are still optimistic Wheeler would net “a solid return” in a deal, according to Puma.
- Tigers righty Michael Fulmer provided an update Saturday on his recovery from the Tommy John surgery he underwent in March, Chris McCosky of the Detroit News relays. “Everything is going according to plan,” said Fulmer, who added he probably won’t pick up a baseball until October or November. The hope is that Fulmer will make it back to the Tigers’ rotation sometime next summer. While lefty Matthew Boyd is Detroit’s top trade chip nowadays, that honor belonged to Fulmer a couple years ago. However, thanks to the former Rookie of the Year’s recent downturn in performance, multiple injuries and his TJ procedure, Fulmer’s trade value is nil at the moment. Still just 26, Fulmer has another three years of arbitration eligibility left, so he could yet reemerge as a valuable starter for the Tigers.
- The Giants added righty Jandel Gustave to their 40-man roster Thursday, in part because he has an opt-out in his minors deal and was drawing interest from other teams, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle tweets (sorry, Henry, but Gustave’s placement on the Giants’ 40-man is not the most obscure transaction MLBTR has covered thus far). As Schulman notes, Gustave possesses an enticing high-90s fastball. The 26-year-old hasn’t been able to harness his stuff into positive results with the San Francisco organization yet, however. Gustave has pitched to a 6.56 ERA/6.08 FIP with 9.26 K/9, 4.24 BB/9 and a 48.6 percent groundball in 23 1/3 Triple-A innings this season.
Cards Rumors: C-Mart, Wacha, Bumgarner, Outfielders
The Cardinals are reportedly open to trading right-hander Carlos Martinez and outfielder Tyler O’Neill by the July 31 deadline. However, they’re not “aggressively” shopping either of those two or outfielder Harrison Bader, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports. On the other hand, they plan to “explore interest” in righty Michael Wacha, according to Goold.
Martinez, the most notable member of the bunch, is someone the Cardinals at least took offers for at last year’s deadline, per Goold. But because Martinez assumed the reins as their closer last month when Jordan Hicks underwent Tommy John surgery, the Redbirds aren’t as willing to consider moving him this season. The former (and possibly future) starter had been eminently effective in a full-time relief role until his past few appearances, having allowed five earned runs on seven hits and three walks across three frames in three outings this week. He now owns a 3.80 ERA, albeit with a far better 3.18 FIP, in 23 2/3 innings on this season. The hard-throwing 27-year-old has picked up seven saves on nine tries and posted 9.5 K/9, 3.8 BB/9 and a superb 64.5 percent groundball rate.
For St. Louis, there’s no imminent threat of losing Martinez, whom the club signed to a five-year, $51MM extension entering the 2017 campaign. He’s controllable through 2023 via two club options, and will play for a reasonable $11.5MM salary in each season through 2021.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals could watch Wacha walk in free agency during the offseason, which helps explain their amenability to parting with him now. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak did tell Goold the Cardinals don’t “see anybody on the current roster that we’re looking to move,” but Wacha has fallen from grace this season. The once-promising Wacha has logged a hideous 5.42 ERA/6.15 FIP with 7.27 K/9 and 4.5 BB/9 in 78 innings, and has lost his spot in the Cardinals’ rotation multiple times. Considering the way Wacha has performed in 2019, his $6.35MM salary looks steep.
Thanks in part to Wacha’s struggles, the Cardinals’ starting staff has come up short of expectations thus far. Aside from Dakota Hudson, they don’t have a single hurler with double-digit starts and a sub-4.00 ERA. Even Hudson’s 3.59 ERA is accompanied by a subpar K/BB ratio and a shaky 5.13 FIP. With that in mind, Goold writes that St. Louis has “evaluated” Giants lefty Madison Bumgarner, the top rental starter who could move wind up changing teams before the deadline. However, with the Cardinals on his eight-team no-trade list, Bumgarner would be able to turn down a move to St. Louis.
The Cardinals’ outfield, meantime, may have two long-term building blocks in O’Neill and Bader. Their presences look especially important with Marcell Ozuna set to hit free agency after the season and Jose Martinez not being a viable defensive option in the grass. O’Neill, 24, has been a solid offensive producer since debuting last year, having slashed .275/.314/.502 (115 wRC+) with 14 home runs. He has, however, fanned in a massive percentage of plate appearances (39.2) and drawn walks at only a 4.5 percent clip. It’s also worth noting an impossible-to-sustain .405 bating average on balls in play has buoyed his numbers.
O’Neill won’t even reach arbitration until after 2021, while Bader’s scheduled to start the process at the conclusion of the 2020 season. The 25-year-old Bader was a 3.5-fWAR player in 2018, his first full season, owing to above-average offense and tremendous defense. While Bader remains a star in the field (8 Defensive Runs Saved, 9.4 Ultimate Zone Rating in center this season), his output with the bat has plummeted. He’s hitting a mere .207/.325/.361 (82 wRC+) with six HRs and five steals in 247 PA.
Although there are causes for concern with regards to O’Neill and Bader, it appears they’ll remain in place through the deadline. But Mozeliak informed Goold, “We don’t know where we need to go to change our team.” No matter what the Cardinals do change by month’s end, they’ll try to stop their playoff drought from reaching four years. Despite a lukewarm 50-47 record, they’re very much in the race, trailing a wild-card spot by half a game and the NL Central-leading Cubs by 3 1/2.
Giants To Select Zach Green
The Giants will select corner infielder Zach Green from Triple-A Sacramento prior to Sunday’s game, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle tweets. The team will need to make corresponding 40-man moves to create space for Green and the promotion of left-hander Conner Menez.
Green entered the professional ranks as a third-round pick of the Phillies in 2012, but the Northern California native left the organization as a free agent last offseason to sign with the Giants. Since then, the right-handed 25-year-old has slashed an outstanding .302/.402/.698 with 23 home runs in 264 plate appearances. Even in the offense-driven Pacific Coast League, Green’s production has been 55 percent better than average, according to FanGraphs’ wRC+ metric. It has also been markedly superior to the numbers Green put up in 2018, his first year at the minors’ top level, as he hit .248/.312/.412 (108 wRC+) with three HRs in 138 PA to conclude his Phillies tenure.
The promotion of Green will give a suddenly contending Giants team more corner depth in the wake of starting third baseman Evan Longoria‘s placement on the injured list this week. Although Pablo Sandoval has taken the reins at the hot corner in Longoria’s absence, it’s up in the air how much longer the Kung Fu Panda will remain with the organization. After all, Sandoval’s an impending free agent on a team that might sell by the July 31 trade deadline, despite its recent success.
Nationals Interested In Shane Greene, Sam Dyson
Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo said Friday the club’s going into the July 31 trade deadline seeking controllable talent, especially in the bullpen. Already connected to relievers Mychal Givens and Jake Diekman so far this month, a couple more late-game arms are now on the Nationals’ radar. The club is interested in Tigers closer Shane Greene and Giants setup man Sam Dyson, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports.
Not only are Greene and Dyson thriving in 2019, but they’re under wraps via the arbitration process through next season. Greene’s currently on a $4MM salary, while Dyson is making $5MM. There’s plenty of value in both cases, but if acquiring either would force the Nationals to give up prized shortstop prospect Carter Kieboom, it’s not going to happen. The Nats haven’t been willing to include Kieboom “in any deal,” according to Jamal Collier of MLB.com, and the Tigers were unsurprisingly turned down when they asked for Kieboom in exchange for Greene.
Widely regarded as one of the game’s premier prospects, the 21-year-old Kieboom would indeed be a big ask for a year-plus of a reliever, even though the Nationals are desperate for bullpen help. Despite having been weighed down by one of the majors’ worst relief groups from the get-go this year, the Nationals have gotten off to a 51-45 start and hold a one-game lead over the NL’s No. 1 wild-card spot.
With the Giants also in contention (they’re just 3 1/2 back of the Nats), acquiring Dyson could be difficult for Washington. Regardless, based on his performance this season, the 31-year-old Dyson would be an enormous get for the Nats’ relief corps. The right-hander has logged a sterling 2.68 ERA/2.67 FIP with 8.81 K/9, 1.15 BB/9 and a 55.1 percent groundball rate over 47 innings.
The 30-year-old Greene, also a righty, has put up similarly impressive numbers this season as the Tigers’ closer. Not only has Greene saved 22 of 24 chances, but he has recorded an eye-popping 1.03 ERA across 35 frames. Like Dyson, Greene’s strikeout, walk and grounder numbers are terrific. He has fanned 9.51 and walked 2.57 batters per nine, adding a 53.9 percent grounder mark for good measure. As we noted earlier this week, there’s quite a bit of good fortune baked into Greene’s output, but he has nonetheless impressed in 2019. And unlike San Francisco, Detroit’s way out of contention, making it almost a lock the Tigers will deal Greene by the deadline.
Giants To Select Conner Menez, Move Drew Pomeranz To Bullpen
Giants prospect Conner Menez will replace left-hander Drew Pomeranz in the rotation tomorrow, the San Francisco Chronicle’s Henry Schulman reports.
Menez, 24, has risen steadily through the Giants system with little fanfare until quite recently. The lefty, who’s said to have “plus-plus extension” (per FanGraphs, though the site didn’t rank him among the club’s top 35 prospects) and a “high [fastball] spin rate” (MLB.com, where he ranks 21st in the system), led all minor-league left-handers with 171 strikeouts last season. He’s leveled up further in ’19, setting down 123 hitters in just 85 innings for Double-A Richmond and Triple-A Sacramento.
Pomeranz, who signed a one-year, $1.5MM (plus incentives) pact this offseason, has furthered has rapid descent in San Francisco. In 72 1/3 innings for the club, the 30-year-old’s been torched for a startling 17 homers in the Giants’ massive park while walking 35 in the process. His 4.60 SIERA, reflective of a typically-stellar K rate and unsustainable 21% HR/FB, is optimistic of a rebound, but it’s the second consecutive 6+ ERA campaign for the lefty who was once swapped straight-up for a then-top 20 prospect. Pomeranz’s average fastball velocity and strikeout rate are both career bests, but his once-vaunted curveball his abandoned him: per FanGraphs, the pitch has been among the league’s worst since the start of the ’18 campaign.
The sizzling-hot Giants, winners of 14 of the club’s last 16, will now line up with Menez, Madison Bumgarner, Jeff Samardzija, Shaun Anderson, and Tyler Beede in the rotation as the club surges toward the second wild-card spot. It isn’t a mix that inspires much hope, though perhaps the club’s lights-out bullpen – the only NL unit with a sub-4 collective FIP – can safely be counted on to soften the blows. Schulman does note that, per manager Bruce Bochy, the club rotation’s mix “remains fluid” and the Giants will look to rest starters and limit the innings of the three rookies.
Checking In On Largest One-Year Deals: Pitchers
Seven months after signing right-hander Matt Harvey to an $11MM guarantee, the Angels are moving on from the floundering former ace. By my count, Harvey’s one of eight pitchers to receive at least $5MM on a one-year contract since the winter. It’s an arbitrary amount, but as you’ll see below, most of the game’s other fairly expensive short-term hurlers also haven’t lived up to their paydays so far in 2019. To the Angels’ chagrin, Harvey’s not the lone free-agent signing of theirs on this list.
Dallas Keuchel, SP, Braves ($13MM):
- Unlike the other members of this group, Keuchel was not a winter pickup for his team. He instead went without a club until early June, owing to a steep asking price and a qualifying offer hanging over his head, before accepting the Braves’ one-year offer. The former Cy Young winner with Houston has been a mixed bag in his first month in Atlanta, though it’s worth pointing out he didn’t have the benefit of a spring training. The 31-year-old southpaw has taken the ball six times for the Braves and notched a 3.58 ERA with a 2.87 BB/9 and a 57.7 percent groundball rate, all of which are appealing. Conversely, Keuchel’s 5.23 FIP and 5.26 K/9 through 37 2/3 innings may be cause for alarm.
Trevor Cahill, SP/RP, Angels ($9MM):
- Cahill was a low-cost signing entering 2018 for the Athletics, who profited from the 110 effective innings the right-hander gave them as part of a patchwork rotation. The Angels expected something similar this season, but the Cahill addition has blown up in their faces thus far. Cahill was so disappointing as a member of the Halos’ starting staff that they moved him to a relief position several weeks back. Neither role has suited the 31-year-old in 2019, evidenced by his 6.56 ERA/6.20 FIP with 6.81 K/9 and 3.09 BB/9 across 70 innings.
Cody Allen, RP, Angels ($8.5MM):
- Yet another regrettable investment for the Angels, Allen lost his place in the organization a month ago and then had to settle for a minor league contract with the Twins. Allen joined the Angels off a mediocre-at-best 2018 with the Indians, but he was an imposing late-game reliever in the preceding years. The Angels were banking on Allen revisiting his halcyon days. Instead, they got a 6.26 ERA/8.39 FIP over 23 innings from the righty. Allen did fan upward of 11 hitters per nine in that span, but he also walked almost eight, induced groundballs at a measly 19.7 percent clip, gave up nine home runs, and experienced a drop in velocity for the second straight season.
CC Sabathia, SP, Yankees ($8MM):
- It was no surprise Sabathia and the Yankees stayed together last winter for the final season of the potential Hall of Famer’s career. The 38-year-old lefty has since repaid the Yankees with 82 innings of 4.06 ERA ball and 8.45 K/9 against 3.07 BB/9. Sabathia’s 5.29 FIP and 4.77 xFIP are much less encouraging, but it’s worth noting he also outpitched those metrics in the prior couple years after reinventing himself as a soft-contact specialist. While Sabathia’s average exit velocity against has gone up more than 2 mph since last year, per Statcast, he still ranks in the league’s 88th percentile in terms of hard-hit rate.
Derek Holland, SP/RP, Giants ($7MM):
- The former Ranger and White Sox revived his career with the Giants last season after they took a flier on him on a minor league pact. That led the Giants to bring back Holland on a guaranteed deal, but the move hasn’t worked out. Holland began the season with seven starts and 32 innings of 6.75 ERA/6.44 FIP pitching, which forced the Giants to demote him to their bullpen in the first half of May. The 32-year-old has done better as a reliever since then, though he still hasn’t been particularly good. Through 33 frames, Holland has recorded a 4.09 ERA/5.03 FIP with 7.64 K/9 against 4.09 BB/9.
Trevor Rosenthal, RP, Nationals ($7MM):
- Rosenthal’s similar to Allen as a former standout closer whose career has gone in the tank recently. The Rosenthal signing went so poorly for the Nationals that they released him toward the end of June. The flamethrowing Rosenthal was a stud at times for the Cardinals from 2012-17, but he underwent Tommy John surgery in the last of those seasons and sat out all of 2018. In his return to the majors with the Nationals this year, Rosenthal logged an unfathomable 22.74 ERA with 21.32 BB/9 in 6 1/3 innings. He also spent more than a month on the injured list with a viral infection while on Washington’s roster. After the Nats cut Rosenthal, he caught on with the Tigers on a minor league contract. The 29-year-old is now back in the majors with rebuilding Detroit, having tossed a pair of scoreless innings and posted two strikeouts and two walks as a Tiger.
Tyson Ross, SP, Tigers ($5.75MM):
- As has often been the case during Ross’ career, an injury – an elbow issue this time – has largely kept him from contributing. Ross hasn’t taken a major league mound since May 10, nor does it look as if a return is imminent. Before landing on the shelf, Ross, 32, put up an ugly 6.11 ERA/5.99 FIP with 6.37 K/9 and 4.58 BB/9 in 35 1/3 frames. Ross was serviceable last year between San Diego and St. Louis, however, so the Tigers were likely hoping he’d perform similarly over this season’s first few months and turn into a trade chip around the July 31 deadline. That dream died weeks ago.
Latest On Giants’ Deadline Plans For Bumgarner, Other Trade Candidates
It was reported just days ago that the Giants were still planning to sell despite a run of success that has yet to abate. That’s not quite how president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi characterized things, though he certainly left the door wide open to dealing.
While the postseason picture remains about the same now — the Giants don’t have a prayer in the division but are up to one game under .500 and 2.5 games out of Wild Card position — there are increasing indications that the San Francisco organization may seriously consider holding onto its best trade chips. At the very least, it seems the club is going to give its roster as much time as possible to position itself.
There seems to be a bit of a growing sense around the game that the Giants may well hold off on a sell-off. A rival exec says as much to MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link), while Andy Martino of SNY.tv reports that top Giants trade candidates Will Smith and Madison Bumgarner simply aren’t available at this point in time. Presumably, the same holds true for all or most of the team’s many other trade candidates, no shortage of whom featured on MLBTR’s latest ranking.
If that’s the case, it seems a sensible initial move for a front office group that is in its first season at the helm. It would be exceedingly difficult to justify sell-side decisions at this immediate juncture when it’s still not known exactly how the situation will look at the deadline. Aggressive, early action is worth considering when you’re certain of the approach, but there’s a reason teams have typically waited until just before the deadline (and even beyond, back when August trades were allowed under certain circumstances) to make moves that can’t be taken back.
Hitting the pause button doesn’t necessarily mean the Giants won’t end up operating on the sell side. There are many arguments in favor of such an approach, as we touched upon in presenting our recent poll on the Giants’ deadline approach. The responses to the poll were interesting: about three of four MLBTR readers urged the Giants to sell. Less than one in ten advocated a buying approach, with most of the optimists preferring the team mostly stand pat.
It’s interesting to wonder whether some kind of blended approach could be pursued if the club has positioned itself in or near Wild Card position by the end of the month. One possibility would be to hang onto Bumgarner, a rightful legend of the organization, with the idea of issuing him a qualifying offer at season’s end (or even extending him). It’s far from clear that the organization will recoup truly significant prospects for the lefty, with nagging questions about just how good a pitcher he really is at this stage of his career and only months of team control remaining. Hanging onto him might represent a justifiable middle ground. Meanwhile, the team could explore deals in which it would recoup youthful talent at or near the majors for some of its veteran hurlers (this trade might be something of a model). The Giants could even contemplate some additions of controllable talent if they see good value and a chance to fill an anticipated need.
For understandable reasons, Bumgarner continues to draw much of the attention. The undeniable allure of his historically exceptional postseason work is tough to ignore or write off. Thirty on August 1st, Bumgarner probably will never return to his peak levels of performance. But it’s also important to note that he has turned things up a notch as the season has gone along. He’s currently sitting at over 92 mph with his average heater and carries a 12.0% swinging-strike rate that’s second-highest in his career. Statcast does suggest some regression could be in store based upon the volume of hard contact Bumgarner has surrendered, but ERA estimators generally see him as a quality mid-rotation starter (3.69 FIP, 3.96 xFIP, 4.01 SIERA).
It’s no surprise that plenty of clear contenders are contemplating a move for Bumgarner. There has been a steady stream of chatter on him for some time. There are a few recent market hints, though none seem particularly strong. The Twins and (less likely) Red Sox may have been eyeing MadBum when they scouted his outing last night, Jon Morosi of MLB.com suggests (Twitter links), though it’s awfully difficult to know what the presence of a scout means when the contest in question features so many possible trade candidates. The Yankees are primarily looking elsewhere but could still enter the picture, Martino suggests.
As for Bumgarner himself, his feelings probably aren’t surprising. Following a gutsy nine-inning performance last night, the surly southpaw told reporters including Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area that his team is “making a push” for the postseason. Do the trade rumors bother MadBum? “I don’t give a …” well, you know. He continued: “I’m here to win games for this team, and that’s what we’re doing.”
Latest On Phillies’ Pitching Targets
July 19: The Phillies have also shown some level of interest in Blue Jays righty Marcus Stroman, tweets Jon Morosi of MLB.com. Given that Stroman is eminently available and arguably the most likely pitcher in baseball to be traded in the next two weeks, it’d be a surprise if Philadelphia (or any other team eyeing rotation upgrades) hadn’t reached out to Toronto to express interest.
July 18: It’s already been a busy day on the Phillies rumor mill, as we’ve heard reports connecting the team to such names as the Rangers’ Mike Minor, newly-minted free agent Drew Smyly, and (before he was dealt to the Red Sox) Andrew Cashner. Since pitching is such a priority for the arm-needy Phils, it’s no surprise that they’ve cast a wide eye across the pitching market, as NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Jim Salisbury reports that the Phillies have also had talks about Giants southpaw Madison Bumgarner, Tigers lefty Matt Boyd, and Diamondbacks right-hander Zack Greinke.
The Phils also looked into Homer Bailey before the Royals dealt Bailey to the Athletics last weekend, indicating that Philadelphia is looking at all ends of the pitching market. As Salisbury notes, the Phillies aren’t keen on giving up several top prospects to land a top starter, as rival teams are still putting high price tags on their best trade chips.
Lower-level targets like Cashner, Bailey, and Smyly are therefore also being explored to help stabilize at least the back of the Phillies’ rotation. Of course, the Phillies are arguably in need of multiple arms already, and that need will only become more severe if Jake Arrieta ends up requiring season-ending surgery. Trading for two top-of-the-market starters is almost surely too steep a price for the Phillies, so a tactic of acquiring just one of those top-flight arms and then signing a pitcher like Smyly could be a more viable strategy if Philadelphia does intend to pick up more than one starter.
Recent comments from team president Andy MacPhail suggest that the Phillies aren’t going to give up top prospects for a rental player (if at all), and perhaps could be more inclined to pursue trades that would see the team take on salary rather than move much in the way of notable minor league talent. This stance would seem to make it less likely that the Phillies make a strong push for Bumgarner (a free agent after the season) or Boyd, who will be relatively cost-controlled through three arbitration-eligible seasons but is only available for a team that meets the Tigers’ heavy asking price.
This leaves Greinke as a potentially very intriguing candidate, as the Diamondbacks are likelier to accept a lower-level prospect package just for the sake of getting the righty’s salary off the books. While Greinke has largely been excellent over his tenure in Arizona, his contract takes up such a big percentage of the team’s payroll that it has left the semi-rebuilding D’Backs somewhat hamstrung in terms of financial flexibility. Greinke is owed roughly $83.1MM in salary and signing bonus allotments until the end of the 2021 season — to put it in perspective, Greinke alone accounted for almost 28 percent of the Diamondbacks’ player payroll in 2019.
Trading for Greinke would probably put the Phillies over the $206MM luxury tax threshold, as Roster Resource currently projects their number as $196.36MM. The Phils could try to move some other salaries to carve out some extra payroll space, or perhaps just accept going over the tax limit as the cost of doing business for a run at the postseason.
Then again, this could all be a moot point since Greinke said in February that he didn’t want to be dealt anywhere, and the Phillies are one of the 15 teams on his no-trade list. While it’s possible Greinke’s feelings have changed in recent months, it could take some further negotiating to get Greinke into the fold, perhaps so much so that the Phillies could prefer to just move onto another trade target.