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AL East Notes: Stanton, Frazier, Andujar, JDM, Givens, Blue Jays

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While the Yankees were assuredly disheartened upon being informed that they were not a finalist for Shohei Ohtani, that information looks to have largely paved the way for New York’s blockbuster acquisition of Giancarlo Stanton. Yankees GM Brian Cashman joined Jim Bowden and Craig Mish on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM today and discussed his club’s pursuit of both Ohtani and Stanton (Twitter link with audio). As Cashman explains, had the Yankees been among the finalists for Ohtani, or even signed him, they’d have been committed to keeping the DH spot largely open in order to accommodate Ohtani’s desire to both pitch and hit. However, being informed that they were out of the Ohtani sweepstakes fairly early in the process allowed Cashman and his staff to pivot and re-engage the Marlins on Stanton. New York and Miami had talked in the previous month, per Cashman, and negotiations quickly became serious once the Yankees knew they could use the DH spot that had been earmarked for Ohtani to rotate Stanton, Aaron Judge and others.

Elsewhere in the AL East…

  • In that same appearance, Cashman also spoke about the possibility of Stanton and Judge seeing time in left field as well as trade interest in prospects Miguel Andujar and Clint Frazier (both links via MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch). Hoch notes that the DH spot is a more likely avenue to get both Judge and Stanton into the same lineup, though Cashman said that both players have expressed a willingness and level of excitement regarding the possibility of playing the opposite outfield corner. Brett Gardner and Aaron Hicks figure to line up regularly in left field and center field for the Yankees, but it seems that there’ll be days when one of the two slugging career-long right fielders could see time in left. As for Andujar and Frazier, Cashman spoke highly of both and acknowledged the possibility of a trade, though he also said he could hang onto both young players. Cashman calls Frazier a “very valuable, attractive asset” not only to the Yankees but to other teams and later adds that Andujar is “…a very exciting talent — one that’s being insisted upon, it seems like, in every conversation I’m having with anything that’s high-end out there.”
  • Red Sox ownership has given president of baseball ops Dave Dombrowski more autonomy than his predecessors received, writes Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston, and it’s been Dombrowski who has primarily driven the Red Sox’ pursuit of J.D. Martinez. Drellich wonders if now is the time for Dombrowski and owner John Henry to begin showing this type of restraint — Boston has reportedly offered Martinez five years but drawn a line there — as New York and Los Angeles both loom as potential big spenders again next offseason. Drellich also takes a look at Dombrowski’s history of splashy moves (some of his own volition and some driven by late Tigers owner Mike Ilitch during Dombrowski’s days in Detroit) as well as his reputation as an executive that is, at times, willing to overpay on the free-agent and trade markets.
  • Right-hander Mychal Givens drew persistent trade interest at the Winter Meetings, writes Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com, but he’s among the players that the Orioles consider to be untouchable. With Zach Britton on the shelf due to a ruptured Achilles tendon, many are expecting Brad Brach to step into the closer’s role, though Kubatko writes that manager Buck Showalter isn’t anointing anyone. Rather, Showalter believes that in Givens, Brach, Darren O’Day and lefty Richard Bleier, he has a number of weapons that can help lock down games, depending on the situation. “In a perfect world you’d be able to spread it around, but I’m not there yet,” says Showalter. “…But I’m confident that we have more than one person capable of doing a good job with it. To think you’re going to have somebody to do it at the level that [Britton] did it, that’s historic. There’s not a guy out there like that.”
  • Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins said in an appearance on Sportsnet 590 that his club does indeed have interest in Marlins star Christian Yelich, though he cautioned that virtually every team in baseball is in that boat as well (link via Sportsnet’s Michael Hoad). Atkins again voiced a desire to strengthen both his outfield and his pitching staff, though he acknowledged that the outfield is a greater need. The Jays, Atkins added, are heartened by the fact that they have both payroll capacity (a reported $20MM or so in 2018 space) and a strong farm system that allows them to trade. Certainly, the Marlins would be keen on top-tier talents like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette if they were to seriously entertain parting with Yelich. Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith tweets that Atkins addressed the theoretical notion of moving those elite prospects, saying they’d only be available were the Jays to acquire a “young, controllable player that we feel could be as talented or more as those two players.” While Yelich arguably fits that description, Nicholson-Smith notes that it still seems likely that the Jays will hang onto both players.

Marlins Receiving Trade Interest In Justin Bour

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  • Teams continue to ask the Marlins about Justin Bour, though the club wasn’t listening to offers about the first baseman during the Winter Meetings.  Bour is one of Miami’s more intriguing long-term assets, just entering his arbitration years and coming off a season that saw him his .289/.366/.536 with 25 homers in 429 plate appearances.  Bour’s age (he turns 3o in May) and the amount of depth at the first base position makes Bour a less-valuable trade chip for Miami than Christian Yelich or J.T. Realmuto, though obviously the Fish would still garner a lot of interest in Bour if they made him available.

    [SOURCE LINK]
  • Teams continue to ask the Marlins about Justin Bour, though the club wasn’t listening to offers about the first baseman during the Winter Meetings.  Bour is one of Miami’s more intriguing long-term assets, just entering his arbitration years and coming off a season that saw him his .289/.366/.536 with 25 homers in 429 plate appearances.  Bour’s age (he turns 3o in May) and the amount of depth at the first base position makes Bour a less-valuable trade chip for Miami than Christian Yelich or J.T. Realmuto, though obviously the Fish would still garner a lot of interest in Bour if they made him available.

Poll: Which Of These Players Is Most Likely To Be Traded?

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We’ve reached January, and the free agent market is still lagging in a big way. The top free agents available seemingly haven’t showed a willingness to lower their asking prices, and with spring training less than two months out, teams may feel a need to complete their offseason shopping lists sooner than later. In some cases, this may cause teams to make stronger pushes for some candidates on the trade market.

There have certainly been some large scale trades so far this offseason. High-end players such as Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna, Evan Longoria, Ian Kinsler and Stephen Piscotty have changed hands already, and there are still plenty of practical matches left between MLB teams. We’ve detailed many of these in the 2017-2018 installment of our “Looking For A Match” series; the players featured in those articles are listed below, with our noted potential fits listed in parentheses.

  • Billy Hamilton, Reds CF (Giants, Dodgers, Royals): Hamilton’s talents as a burner on the basepaths and an elite defender in center field are well-known throughout MLB circles, but in truth, that’s about where his usefulness ends. His .299 OBP was the 11th-lowest among qualified hitters in 2017; that number is about consistent with his career mark. The Giants seem to have shown a strong interest in Hamilton, but Reds owner Bob Castellini’s recently-reported hesitancy to part with the speedster could gum up trade negotiations. [LINK: Looking For A Match In A Billy Hamilton Trade]
  • Brad Hand, Padres LHRP (Astros, Dodgers, Cardinals, Twins, Braves): Though our evaluation of Hand’s trade market also included the Rays and Rockies, those teams seem like less likely suitors at this point in the offseason; the former decreased their likelihood of contention by shipping Longoria to San Francisco, while the latter has signed three expensive relief pitchers to pad their bullpen. Hand is one of the elite relief pitchers in all of baseball, and he’s certainly one of the best (if not the undisputed best) bullpen options on the trade market. Of course, the caveat is that it would also require a significant prospect haul to convince San Diego to move him. The lefty has two years of team control remaining, and MLBTR projects him to cost just $3.8MM in 2018. [LINK: Looking For A Match In A Brad Hand Trade]
  • Jose Abreu, White Sox 1B (Astros, Indians, Rangers, Red Sox, Rockies): Though the Cuba native has been a mainstay in the White Sox’ lineup since his MLB debut in 2014, his club is unlikely to contend for a pennant before he reaches free agency after the 2019 season. MLBTR’s arbitration projections have him pegged for a $17.9MM salary in 2018, but his expected offensive output makes him well worth that price tag. [LINK: Looking For A Match In A Jose Abreu Trade]
  • Avisail Garcia, White Sox OF (Blue Jays, Indians, Rockies, Diamondbacks, Giants, Rangers): Like Abreu, Garcia is a South Sider with two years of team control remaining. However, he comes with a lot more risk; Garcia had played below replacement level over the course of his career prior to a breakout this past season. Still, there are many teams who would benefit from adding a lefty-masher to their outfield corps, and his projected 2018 salary is a reasonable $6.7MM. [LINK: Looking For A Match In An Avisail Garcia Trade]
  • Raisel Iglesias, Reds RHRP (Nationals, Dodgers, Cardinals, Brewers, Twins, Astros): With three full seasons of team control remaining, Iglesias could prove a valuable long-term asset to either a rebuilding club or a current contender. He’s managed to strike out 10.43 batters per nine innings over the course of his career as a reliever while posting a sterling 2.29 ERA. The Twins have reportedly shown interest in Iglesias this winter, though that was nearly two months ago; there haven’t been any new developments in that story since then. [LINK: Looking For A Match In A Raisel Iglesias Trade]
  • J.T. Realmuto, Marlins C (Nationals, Rockies, Diamondbacks): Unlike the other players on this list, Realmuto has gone so far as to request a trade from his current team. While that alone certainly isn’t enough to facilitate a trade, some have taken the stance that Miami ought to trade their catcher (along with fellow Marlin Christian Yelich) at his peak value. Realmuto has accrued more than 7 WAR over the past two seasons alone, but the Marlins don’t feel compelled to trade him unless they’re overwhelmed by an offer. [LINK: Looking For A Match In A J.T. Realmuto Trade]
  • Manny Machado, Orioles 3B (Cardinals, Yankees, Angels, Rockies, Nationals): Rumors surrounding Baltimore’s prized infielder have cooled off a bit recently, but the Orioles could still be prompted to move him for the right offer. They’re reportedly seeking two talented starting pitchers who are controllable for the long term, however, which seems like a sky-high asking price for a player with just one year of team control remaining. Of course, the O’s probably wouldn’t restrict a return to just rotation options. Machado is projected to earn a $17.3MM salary in his final season before hitting the free agent market. [LINK: Trading Manny Machado]

We’ll open this subject up to reader opinions at this point. Which of the trade candidates we’ve profiled do you think is most likely to be traded before the 2018 season begins? (Link for app users)

Blue Jays, Rangers "Appear" To Be Interested In Christian Yelich

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The Blue Jays and Rangers “appear” to be among teams with interest in Marlins center fielder Christian Yelich, according to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. Yelich has landed on several clubs’ radars this offseason, owing to his impressive track record, long-term affordability and age (26), but he may end up sticking with the Marlins. Miami understandably wants an enormous return for Yelich, presumably in the form of prospects, so it’s worth noting that Toronto is ninth and Texas 21st in Baseball America’s most recent farm system rankings (subscription required and recommended).

East Notes: Nationals, Red Sox, Starlin

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Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post wonders if the Nationals will end up paying up for a Scott Boras client, as they often do late in the offseason. In recent winters, owner Ted Lerner approved deals for players like Rafael Soriano, Max Scherzer and Matt Wieters after the calendar flipped to the new year, and there’s certainly a possibility it could happen again. Janes lists reliever Greg Holland, outfielder J.D. Martinez and starter Jake Arrieta as Boras clients who make sense for the club’s roster as it’s currently constructed. The Nationals have a history of doing business with Boras late in the year, or as Janes puts it, “When big-name Boras clients linger into the new year, the Nationals linger, too, as potential suitors, regardless of whether they have an obvious need.”

Elsewhere along the East Coast…

  • Unlike the Nats, the Red Sox rarely make late splashes in the free agent market. Jen McCaffrey of masslive.com posits that this year might be different. Boston is still in need of an upgrade to their offense, and J.D. Martinez remains on the market. Though the only significant late-winter deals the club made in the past decade were one-year pacts with Mike Napoli and Adrian Beltre, the Red Sox are probably facing pressure from their fan base to improve an offense that finished dead last in the American League with 168 home runs and third to last with a 92 wRC+. Other big hitters still on the market include the likes of Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas, though neither seem like particularly good fits for Boston.
  • Though new Marlins second baseman Starlin Castro is generating some trade interest, Joe Frisaro of MLB.com believes he’s likely to stay put. Gary Denbo, the Marlins’ VP of player development and scouting, says that  Castro “has the ability to hit for average, and for a second baseman, he does provide power for that position.” Denbo also says he hopes that the second baseman can be a steady defender in the middle of the field. Since coming to Miami in the blockbuster Giancarlo Stanton trade, speculation has swirled around Castro as a potential trade candidate. I recently noted that the 27-year-old perhaps has some surplus value in his contract, which has two years and $22MM in guarantees remaining. His .300/.338/.454 battling line with the Yankees last year is solid, but his defense up the middle detracts a bit from his value.

Are Marlins Serious About Dealing Realmuto, Yelich?

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While the Marlins have reportedly been holding talks regarding catcher J.T. Realmuto and outfielder Christian Yelich, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic says that four rival general managers expressed doubt” that a trade will actually take place involving these young assets. Whether that opinion is based on the reportedly astronomical asking prices or other factors isn’t immediately clear. There’s some suggestion from some of Rosenthal’s sources, though, that the Fish are concerned with perception and won’t make a deal unless it seems the offer was overwhelming. That seems largely unlikely, but the already less-than-rosy returns on the initial months of the new ownership have been marred further by reports from the Miami Herald about the incoming plans. Most recently, Barry Jackson reported that CEO Derek Jeter stands to receive a $5MM salary with multi-million-dollar bonuses if he can deliver profitability to the ownership group (of which he is a part). PR considerations aside, there’s certainly a compelling case to deal Realmuto and Yelich rather than take the risk of holding them. Rosenthal argues the organization ought to simply follow through on the rebuilding steps it has taken already, using this offseason as the time to cash in both of those quality young players.

Orioles Have Some Interest In Realmuto

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  • “Too many people” are assuming that Chance Sisco is a lock to open the year as the Orioles’ starting catcher, reports MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko. (I’m guilty as charged on that front, having referenced him as the likely starter on multiple occasions.) Per Kubatko, 26-year-old Austin Wynns has a “legitimate” chance to break camp with the team thanks largely to his defensive prowess. If that happens, then the O’s would seemingly take Wynns and Caleb Joseph north to open the year while giving Sisco additional development time in Triple-A Norfolk. The O’s are also still in the market for a veteran catcher, which could prove to be either a starting-caliber option or a backup to vie for a spot alongside Sisco and Wynns. Kubatko notes that some in the organization are intrigued by the Marlins’ J.T. Realmuto, though it’s difficult to imagine the O’s coming up with the type of package that’d beat the field for Realmuto when Miami has been targeting pitching prospects in other trades.

Marlins Looking To Maximize Talent In Return For Realmuto, Yelich

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  • It has already been an eventful and somewhat controversial offeason for the Marlins. As Danny Knobler writes for Bleacher Report, the new ownership group’s decision to move large contracts and launch a rebuild may feel unfortunate, and has not been conducted in an artful manner, but largely fall in line with what was viewed as necessary given the financial limitations and roster needs that had arisen. Perhaps there’s still a chance that the Marlins can salvage the situation from a PR perspective, though, if they can make a case to fans that they have mostly just been acting strategically — that is, methodically working through necessary trade talks without giving away their true, full intentions in a manner that may have appeased fans but drained leverage. The proof, perhaps, will be in the results of the still-percolating trade talks surrounding J.T. Realmuto and Christian Yelich — both of whom are arguably more valuable trade assets than the players who’ve already been dealt. As Rosenthal tweets, the Marlins are not prioritizing financial matters in marketing Realmuto and Yelich; rather, the club is “seeking [the] best talent” it can get its hands on. It will certainly be interesting to see how those discussions progress over the coming weeks, as it seems there’s broad interest from quite a few teams that could deliver major assets back to the Marlins.

Nationals, Braves Interested In Christian Yelich, J.T. Realmuto

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11:59am: The Nationals, too, are interested in both Realmuto and Yelich, writes MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro. The Nats’ interest in Realmuto has been previously reported by the Washington Post and MLB.com, among others, though GM Mike Rizzo’s club hasn’t been prominently linked to Yelich due to its own strong collection of outfielders. Per Frisaro, the Nats could have interest in trying to land both players, though that’s likely true of many teams.

Frisaro notes that the Marlins would covet both Victor Robles of the Nationals and the Braves’ Acuna, though both clubs would likely be reluctant to part with their top-ranked minor league talents. Rosenthal tweets that the Nationals would be loath to part with either Robles or fellow outfield Juan Soto, for instance. It’s a similar tale for the Phillies — an oft-cited Yelich suitor — as Frisaro writes that Rhys Hoskins would surely appeal to the Marlins, but it stands to reason that he’d be near untouchable after his stellar 2017 debut.

Talks regarding both Yelich and Realmuto are expected to pick up next week, according to Frisaro.

8:52am: Not only have the Braves called the division-rival Marlins to express interest in Christian Yelich (as has been previously reported), they’ve also tried to engage Miami in talks on catcher J.T. Realmuto, per Jon Morosi of MLB.com. Talks between the two sides haven’t advanced too far in either case as of late, he notes, but it seems as though the Braves have some level of interest in attempting to pry one or both players out of South Florida. David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution hears that the Braves have expressed interest in acquiring the pair, though he classifies it as doubtful that new GM Alex Anthopoulos would part with the overwhelming level of talent it’d take to land both players.

Atlanta will trot out a pair of solid veterans on one-year commitments — Tyler Flowers and Kurt Suzuki — to handle the bulk of their catching duties in 2018, whereas Realmuto and his remaining three years of control would give them a longer-term answer behind the dish. There’s a clearer spot for Yelich following the trade of Matt Kemp to the Dodgers, but Atlanta wants to leave space for top prospect Ronald Acuna to debut in an outfield corner as well. O’Brien speculates that perhaps the Braves could convince Miami to take on Nick Markakis and his salary if Martin Prado or another pricey veteran heads back to Atlanta in the deal.

While both Yelich and Realmuto are immensely popular trade targets — Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes (subscription required/recommended) that “virtually every club” is interested in trading for Yelich — it seems that there was at one point some positive momentum between the two sides. MLB.com’s Mark Bowman tweets that Atlanta and Miami “made some progress toward” a trade involving Yelich back at the Winter Meetings. The Marlins, though, pumped the brakes on talks a bit as they dealt with significant PR backlash from trading away the likes of Giancarlo Stanton, Dee Gordon and Marcell Ozuna, according to Bowman. He does add that talks were expected to resume eventually.

Certainly, acquiring even one of the two would require a massive haul. (Rosenthal, for instance, spoke to one exec who suggested that the Marlins could rightly ask three to four “genuine assets” in exchange for Yelich alone.) Acquiring both in one swoop would presumably require one of the largest packages of young, controllable talent in recent memory.

Even after being stripped of a dozen prospects on the heels of their recent front office scandal, the Braves have one of the game’s strongest farm systems, though there are still untouchable players in the organization (O’Brien has tweeted more than once that Acuna simply is not available in discussing scenarios with his followers). On paper, then, it’s possible that the two sides could line up for a swap, though things are never quire so simple. Other factors to consider include the financial component of a deal, whether the Marlins would charge some type of premium for dealing their top two remaining stars to a division rival, and what type of splash the new Anthopoulos-led Braves front office wants to make on its first significant move in Atlanta.

It’s worth stressing, again, that the Braves are merely one team that is interested in the pair of young Miami stars. In that same column, Rosenthal writes that the Nationals have already checked in on Realmuto, while the Astros “would figure to be interested” in the Miami backstop as well. MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro wrote yesterday that upwards of  dozen clubs were in on Realmuto. As for Yelich, the Cardinals, Phillies, Diamondbacks, Giants, White Sox and even the outfield-heavy Cubs are among the teams that have been connected to him in previous reports, and surely there are others that have at least gauged the asking price as well.

Marlins Rumors: Payroll, Yelich, Realmuto, Analytics

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Though the Marlins fielded a $115MM payroll last season in Jeffrey Loria’s final year of ownership, the financial plan of the Bruce Sherman/Derek Jeter ownership group doesn’t call for payroll to return to those heights until 2021, according to Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald. Jackson cites a pair of copies of the financial plan provided to potential investors, entitled Project Wolverine, in providing a number of details on the Marlins’ upcoming year-to-year payrolls as well as some aggressive revenue and attendance projections.

Notably, while the Marlins are aiming for a payroll around $90MM in 2018, the plan projects even lower payrolls in 2019-20 ($81MM and $84.8MM, respectively), before jumping back into the nine-figure range. Part of the reason for the healthier number in 2018 could be the one-time $50MM payout that all 30 MLB teams are receiving after Disney’s acquisition of BAMTech, per Jackson. (Beyond that, Edinson Volquez, Brad Ziegler and Junichi Tazawa will be off the books after 2018.) It’s unclear whether trades of additional MLB assets will significantly alter those projections, though Jackson notes that Christian Yelich, J.T. Realmuto and Starlin Castro are available “for the right price,” while the team is (unsurprisingly) amenable to trading Tazawa ($7MM in 2018) and Ziegler ($9MM in ’18).

A bit more out of Miami…

  • If the Marlins do hang onto Yelich, he could once again be ticketed for left field duty, reports MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro. Yelich and Marcell Ozuna flipped positions this past season, with Yelich moving from left field to center field, but the acquisition of Magneuris Sierra (in the trade that sent Ozuna to St. Louis) gives Miami a center field option with elite speed. Miami could line up an outfield with Yelich in left, Sierra in center and speedy Braxton Lee in right field, giving the Fish a rangy trio that is lacking in the power department. However, Frisaro notes that Miami is still open to adding another right field option (be it via trade or a presumably low-cost option on the free agent market).
  • At least 15 teams have called the Marlins on Yelich, per Frisaro, while another dozen or so are showing interest in Realmuto. Miami isn’t willing to move either player for anything less than a substantial overpay in terms of prospects and young talent, though. Frisaro lists the Cardinals, Phillies, Braves and D-backs as teams that have spoken to Miami about Yelich.
  • Tim Healey of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel takes a look at the Marlins’ growing analytics department, reporting that former Yankees executive Dan Greenlee will now oversee the department. Former analytics head Jason Pare recently took a job as an assistant general manager with the Braves under new GM Alex Anthopoulos, and while Greenlee was initially tabbed as an interim head of the department, he’ll now oversee those operations on a permanent basis. Miami has also hired a new senior analyst (Myles Lewis), promoted analyst Michael Lord to analytics coordinator and is still seeking to hire another developer and another data analyst.
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