The Opener: Judge, Bellinger, Offseason Outlooks
As the offseason continues to roll along, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on today:
1. Judge To Meet With Giants
Later today, top free agent Aaron Judge will meet with Giants brass in San Francisco. This marks the first meeting Judge has been reported to be taking with a team besides the Yankees, who made Judge a new offer last week. Rumors have long swirled that the Giants would be aggressive with their financial might this offseason, and team officials have done little to dissuade that thinking with their public comments. Their pursuit of Judge, the offseason’s premier free agent who grew up a Giants fan in the area, is no surprise. In addition to the Yankees, the Giants are likely to face competition for Judge from their divisional rival Dodgers, whose interest in Judge has been reported occasionally throughout the offseason thus far.
2. Cody Bellinger‘s Market Developing
Despite being non-tendered by the Dodgers on Friday, former NL MVP Cody Bellinger has found a fairly strong market for himself due to this offseason’s dearth of available center fielders. He’s fielded calls from teams since the hour after his non-tender, and while those conversations have supposedly included multi-year interest, his preference is toward a one-year pact. The Blue Jays, Giants, and Cubs are among the teams who have been connected to Bellinger, and it seems likely plenty more will arise over the course of his free agency. Beyond Bellinger, Kevin Kiermaier (who’s recovering from hip surgery) and top free-agent center fielder Brandon Nimmo, there aren’t many viable regulars on this year’s free-agent market.
3. Offseason Outlooks Set To Wrap Up
The Offseason Outlook series is one of MLBTR’s biggest offseason projects, and after covering the Giants and the Phillies yesterday, the series will wrap with coverage of the Astros later today. While that will mark the end of Offseason Outlook posts for the year, be sure to keep an eye out for the team-focused Offseason Outlook chats, which will also be completed shortly. In addition to the Astros, A’s and Rangers fans can look forward to an Offseason Chat over the next couple days. MLBTR’s Steve Adams will host a Rangers-specific chat today at 1pm CT. You can submit an early question here and also use that link to join the chat once it’s underway (and to read the transcript once it’s completed). Fans of other teams can check out previous Offseason Outlook posts and team-specific chats here.
The Opener: Hall of Fame, Twins, Angels
As Friday’s non-tender deadline enters the rear-view mirror and the offseason rolls along, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around baseball:
1. Hall of Fame Ballot Announced
The official Hall of Fame ballot for 2023 is set to be released today, and for the first time in 10 years, it won’t have Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, or Curt Schilling on it. Carlos Beltran and Francisco Rodriguez will be eligible for the first time in 2023, while Jeff Kent enters his final year of eligibility. Scott Rolen, Todd Helton, and Billy Wagner each received over 50% of the vote last year, and could be names to watch this year in addition to the newcomers. While Alex Rodriguez will enter his second year of eligibility in 2023, he’ll need a massive showing on this year’s ballot to get on the radar for Cooperstown consideration after just a 34.3% showing in his inaugural year on the ballot. Although Bonds, Clemens, and Schilling won’t be on this year’s ballot, they could still join the Hall of Fame in 2023, as the Contemporary Baseball Era Committee will consider the three of them (as well as five others) during the Winter Meetings in December.
2. Will The Twins Re-Sign Correa?
The Twins made a few major changes to their infield mix before Friday’s non-tender deadline, as they shipped Gio Urshela out in a trade with the Angels while swinging a deal to bring in Kyle Farmer from the Reds. If no further changes to the infield mix are made, Minnesota would likely start the season with Jose Miranda at third base, Jorge Polanco at second, and Luis Arraez at first, with Farmer set to hold down shortstop until Royce Lewis returns from injury. With Lewis set to return sometime next season and 2022 draftee Brooks Lee already at Double-A, the Twins could conceivably be content to hand Farmer the keys to the position, transitioning him to more of a utility role once one of the youngsters is ready to displace him. There’s been mutual interest in a Correa reunion, but with big-market teams such as the Dodgers, Cubs, and Giants rumored to be looking to land a shortstop, it’s easy to see how the Twins could lose a bidding war. Still, it seems unlikely that the acquisition of a possible stopgap at shortstop would change Minnesota’s plans much with regards to Correa. Darren Wolfson of KSTP and 1500 SKOR North chatted with Twins president/CEO Dave St. Peter and center fielder Byron Buxton (video link) about the potential for a Correa reunion at last week’s event to unveil new Twins uniforms. The Athletic’s Dan Hayes wrote earlier in the month that the Twins would likely pursue Xander Bogaerts in the event that Correa signs elsewhere.
3. What’s Next For Angels After Urshela?
On the other end of the Urshela deal, the Angels have a more stable infield mix following his acquisition. Anthony Rendon and Jared Walsh figure to get the lion’s share of starts at the corners, assuming their injury woes in 2022 don’t follow them into next season. That leaves Urshela, David Fletcher, and Luis Rengifo to mix and match between second base, shortstop, and filling in at the corners. A prominent shortstop addition still remains possible, but the Angels can also turn their attention to the outfield, where they currently project to send out Jo Adell in left, Mike Trout in center, and Taylor Ward in right. While such an outfield configuration would be far from a disaster, after a trade of Brandon Marsh to the Phillies, the Angels lack depth; currently, Mickey Moniak projects to be their fourth outfielder. Trout will lock up center when healthy, but adding a corner bat to provide protection against continued struggles from Adell would make sense. A lefty such as David Peralta would help the Angels balance their righty-heavy outfield mix, though speculatively speaking, Trey Mancini could be an interesting fit as a player who can play the outfield corners while also providing Walsh platoon protection at first base. Both the Urshela trade and the recent signing of Tyler Anderson have deepened the Angels’ roster while leaving the door open for further moves of note. Deepening the outfield mix in similar fashion would be a sensible next step.
The Opener: Non-Tender Deadline, Bellinger, Diamondbacks
With yet another offseason deadline upon us, here are three things we’ll be watching around baseball today:
1. The Non-Tender Deadline Is Today
This offseason’s non-tender deadline is tonight at 7:00pm CT. Typically, the focus of the n0n-tender deadline is arbitration level players, though it’s not unheard of for pre-arbitration players to be non-tendered as well. Matt Swartz’s arbitration projections provide a comprehensive list of arbitration-eligible players across MLB and their projected 2023 salaries. Some teams have taken steps to address roster concerns ahead of the non-tender deadline, such as the Rays preemptively trading Ji-Man Choi to the Pirates. In some cases, a club and its player will come to an agreement prior to the non-tender deadline, as several already did yesterday (e.g. Cardinals and Chris Stratton). There’s plenty of teams with lots of decisions left to make as the deadline approaches, however, including the Brewers, who have a massive arbitration class of 18 players.
2. What Will The Dodgers Do With Bellinger?
Perhaps the most significant decision any team faces due to today’s deadline is that of the Dodgers on former MVP Cody Bellinger. Just a few years ago, he was widely considered one of the sport’s brightest stars, but back-to-back disastrous seasons at the plate, combined with Bellinger’s projected $18.1MM salary for 2023, could give the Dodgers pause about retaining him for next season. Bellinger still has value as a plus baserunner and excellent glove in the field, but his .193/.256/.355 slash line since the start of the 2021 season inspires little confidence in his bat going forward. As one of the game’s financial powerhouses, the Dodgers could conceivably be more comfortable taking a risk of this nature than most teams; a one-year, $18.1MM contract would not be quite as painful for them as it would be for others should Bellinger struggle again in 2023. If the Dodgers ultimately do non-tender Bellinger, his free agency will be a fascinating one to follow, as he would join a thin center field market behind top option Brandon Nimmo.
3. Lewis Trade Furthers Outfield Logjam In Arizona
Yesterday’s Opener discussed how Seattle’s recent trade for Teoscar Hernandez added to a logjam in their outfield and suggested they may look to trade from that newfound depth in the coming days. That came to pass rather quickly as the Mariners dealt 2020 AL Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis to the Diamondbacks yesterday in exchange for Cooper Hummel. Lewis has struggled following his breakout 2020 campaign due to a number of significant injuries, but the acquisition of a player of his talents could certainly address Arizona’s desire for additional right-handed power in 2023. While Lewis does check a box on GM Mike Hazen’s offseason shopping list, the trade also adds to Arizona’s own outfield logjam. Corbin Carroll and Daulton Varsho are likely set in center and right field, leaving Jake McCarthy, former top prospect Alek Thomas, Dominic Fletcher and Lewis (who could also spend ample time at DH) to vie for reps. Furthermore, if Lewis indeed occupies the DH slot for a significant portion of his playing time, perhaps no player is as impacted by Arizona’s newest acquisition than Seth Beer, who struggled in limited playing time in 2022 and could see his further opportunities limited further going forward. Carroll and Varsho are overwhelmingly unlikely to move, but the D-backs should still receive interest in the remainder of their outfield/DH options. MLBTR’s Steve Adams took a deeper look at Arizona’s outfield logjam back in September.
The Opener: MVP Awards, Outfield Market, Top 50
As MLB’s awards season draws to a close, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on throughout the day today:
1. MVP Results Announced Tonight
The final award announcements for the 2022-23 season are coming tonight, with the AL and NL Most Valuable Player awards being announced at 5:00 PM CT. The finalists in the AL are Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, and Yordan Alvarez, while the NL finalists are Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, and Manny Machado. The AL race this year was a particularly remarkable one, with historic seasons pitted against each other; Ohtani arguably improved on his 2021 AL MVP campaign this year, while Judge delivered perhaps the best offensive season since the days of Barry Bonds. Alvarez, for his part, put up rate numbers that would be more strongly in the mix in just about any other year. Despite truly special seasons from all three finalists in the AL, though, Judge appears to be the favorite after he set a new AL home run record. Over in the NL, Goldschmidt flirted with the Triple Crown at one point, but his season finished on a low note, as he slashed just .245/.333/.383 after the calendar flipped to September. That may have slightly opened the door for Arenado and Machado, who posted extremely similar profiles to one another in 2022. Machado’s .298/.366/.531 season line is nearly indistinguishable from Arenado’s line of .293/.358/.533.
2. How The Teoscar Trade Changes The Market
Yesterday saw the Mariners and the Blue Jays work out a trade to send Teoscar Hernandez to Seattle, potentially shaking up the outfield market in a significant way. With Hernandez no longer penciled into right field every day, the Blue Jays are now even more likely to pursue outfield help, with George Springer, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. their only regular outfielders as things stand. Both Cavan Biggio and Whit Merrifield saw time in the outfield last year, but with the Blue Jays already rumored to be in the market for another outfielder even before yesterday’s trade, they’ll likely only be more aggressive in their pursuit as the offseason progresses. The other side of the trade has implications for the market as well, as Seattle is now even more deeper in outfield options. Hernandez will likely slot into right field with Julio Rodriguez in center and Jesse Winker (assuming he himself isn’t traded) in left, but the Mariners have Jarred Kelenic, Kyle Lewis, Taylor Trammell, and Sam Haggerty further down the depth chart, to say nothing of prospects Cade Marlowe and Zach DeLoach, who could be ready for big league action sometime next year. Needless to say, Seattle’s glut of outfielders could draw trade interest, and the addition of Hernandez makes it all the likelier that president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto will deal from that depth.
3. Talking Top 50 with Rob Bradford
MLBTR’s annual Top 50 Free Agents list and predictions dropped last week, and entries for our Free Agent Prediction contest were due last night — but that doesn’t mean all things Top 50-related are in the rearview mirror just yet. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes and Steve Adams joined Rob Bradford of Audacy Sports and WEEI on the “Baseball Isn’t Boring” podcast to discuss the Top 50 list and the free-agent class at large. You can listen to their appearance here, and you can follow Baseball Isn’t Boring and follow Rob on Twitter.
The Opener: Cy Young Awards, Free Agent Contest, Starting Pitching Market
In the wake of yesterday’s deadlines, here are three things to keep an eye on throughout the baseball world today:
1. Cy Young Award Results Announced Tonight
Awards season continues tonight with the AL and NL Cy Young awards being announced this evening. In the AL, Justin Verlander, Dylan Cease, and Alek Manoah are the finalists. Verlander led all of baseball with an ERA of just 1.75 this year and stands as the likely favorite over Cease and Manoah, despite their own impressive seasons. One thing Cease and Manoah have going for them is volume: Both made more than 30 starts in 2022, while Verlander made just 28. Over in the NL, Sandy Alcantara, Max Fried, and Julio Urias are the three finalists. Alcantara is the clear favorite here after pitching a whopping 228 2/3 innings in 2022, pacing all of baseball by more than 20 innings. Alcantara’s season wasn’t just about volume, however; he was also dominant, posting a 2.28 ERA and 2.99 FIP on the year. Urias posted a lower ERA than Alcantara, leading the NL with a 2.16 mark (though his 3.71 FIP tells a somewhat different story), while Fried beats out Alcantara in terms of FIP with a 2.70. Neither one managed to beat Alcantara in both categories, though, and both trail him by more than 40 innings pitched in 2022.
2. MLBTR’s Free Agent Prediction Contest Submissions Close Tonight
Today is the last day you can sign up for the MLB Trade Rumors Free Agent Prediction Contest. For this contest, you’ll predict where our Top 50 Free Agents will go, with cash prizes awarded to the top three finishers and a one year membership to Trade Rumors Front Office available to everyone who finishes in the Top 15. Much of the MLBTR staff also participates, so you can see how your predictions stack up compared to those of our writers!
3. Anderson, Martinez Deals Signal Movement On The Starting Pitching Market
Yesterday’s qualifying offer deadline spurred movement on the starting pitching market, as Martin Perez accepted the QO from the Rangers, re-upping with them on the one year, $19.65MM deal. Tyler Anderson, meanwhile, agreed to a three-year, $39MM deal with the Angels in lieu of accepting the QO from the Dodgers. This move came as something of a surprise; Anderson was predicted to accept the QO by the MLBTR team along with Perez and Joc Pederson, both of whom did so. That Anderson earned a $39MM guarantee may indicate that the strong market relievers have found this offseason could extend to starters, though early deals have a tendency to be strong, and that momentum doesn’t always carry throughout the winter. Nick Martinez, meanwhile, secured a three-year deal with the Padres that’ll guarantee him a reported $26MM — comfortably outpacing the three years and $18MM from which he opted out. As for other implications across the market, the Dodgers are perhaps likelier to be in search of another arm to replace Anderson in the rotation. The Padres could yet be open to adding some rotation depth, though Martinez gives them a solid one through four on which to rely (assuming he’s indeed ticketed for the rotation). The Rangers aren’t expected to stop after retaining Perez at a premium rate; they’ll remain active players in the rotation market.
The Opener: QO Deadline, Rule 5 Deadline, Manager Of The Year
As the offseason continues to roll along, here are three things we’ll be watching throughout the day today:
1. Qualifying Offer Decisions Due Today
The 14 players who received qualifying offers must either accept or decline the offer by 3:00p, central time this afternoon. While most of these players will make the easy and obvious decision to reject the QO, a few players have a more interesting decision on their hands. Rangers lefty Martin Perez is an example of someone who may accept a QO, though he joins Red Sox righty Nathan Eovaldi as someone who is in negotiations with his 2022 club on a multi-year deal, which could be ironed out in place of the one-year, $19.65MM QO contract. Such a deal could even occur after this deadline as passed, as was the case for Jose Abreu and the White Sox after the 2019 season. Giants outfielder Joc Pederson, Dodgers lefty Tyler Anderson and Yankees first baseman Anthony Rizzo are among the other candidates to accept the offer, though Rizzo has already reportedly drawn strong interest from the Astros even in spite of his QO.
2. Rule 5 Deadline Looms This Evening
Teams must set their 40-man rosters in advance of the upcoming Rule 5 Draft by 5:00pm central time this evening. Seeing as there was no major league phase of the Rule 5 Draft last offseason, teams will have more prospects than usual in need of protection, potentially resulting in a larger roster crunch than usual for many teams. The Rays have already made a pair of moves to clear roster space, and are expected to make more trades before the deadline tonight. While they may be among the most active teams today, it’s safe to say most teams will be making roster moves throughout the day leading up to this evening’s deadline.
3. Manager Of The Year Results Announced Tonight
Awards season continues tonight with the AL and NL Manager of the Year awards being announced this evening. In the AL, Terry Francona of the Guardians, Brandon Hyde of the Orioles, and Scott Servais of the Mariners are the finalists, while in the NL, it’ll be either Brian Snitker of the Braves, Dave Roberts of the Dodgers, or Buck Showalter of the Mets. Each finalist has an interesting case for the award to set themselves apart from the rest of the field. Francona’s Guardians achieved a surprise division title, overtaking the favored White Sox and Twins despite an extremely young roster and a far lower payroll than either of their division rivals. Hyde and the Orioles, despite not making the postseason, also massively overperformed expectations, staying in the postseason hunt through most of September after years of 100 loss seasons. Servais, meanwhile, led a Mariners club that ended the longest active playoff drought in the sport, bringing playoff baseball back to Seattle for the first time since 2001. Roberts and the Dodgers delivered a monster 111-win season that stands among the best in history, while Buck Showalter returned to the dugout to lead the Mets to a 100-win season of their own. Snitker, meanwhile, makes his case through Atlanta’s impressive September in which they ran down Showalter’s Mets for the division title. Results will be announced at 5:00pm central time this evening.
The Opener: Approaching Deadlines, Montero, Orioles
With more offseason deadlines on the horizon, here’s three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:
1. Qualifying offer, Rule 5 deadlines likely to spur movement
Two major offseason deadlines are coming tomorrow, which will likely be the focus of much of the offseason movement that happens today. Qualifying offer recipients must accept or reject the QO by 4pm EST tomorrow, and 40-man rosters must be set ahead of the Rule 5 Draft by 6pm EST tomorrow. The QO deadline could certainly see some recipients with less expected earning power, such as Joc Pederson or Martin Perez, either accept the QO or negotiate a multi-year deal with their previous team — perhaps after initially accepting, as Jose Abreu did during the 2019-20 offseason. While the names weighing the QO might garner more attention, it’s the Rule 5 deadline that will lead to more immediate action. Teams need to make room on their 40-man rosters for any prospects they want to protect from the Rule 5 Draft, which will require adding them to the 40-man roster. That forthcoming wave of additions will lead to a slew of players being designated for assignment, placed on waivers and perhaps traded, as teams create space on the fringes of their roster. This could also lead to some early non-tenders of arbitration-eligible players, as the Nov. 18 non-tender deadline is quickly approaching, too. As Mark Polishuk noted last night, the Rays figure to be one of the most proactive teams in terms of clearing up their 40-man roster in the coming days, having already shipped first baseman Ji-Man Choi to Pittsburgh last week.
2. Montero contract provides another data point on the relief market
In Friday’s Opener, I discussed the surprisingly strong relief market that relief pitchers have found this offseason, and how it could translate to the other relievers on the market. Rafael Montero indeed secured a third year on his new contract with the Astros, as predicted on MLBTR’s Top 50 free agent list, but his $34.5MM guarantee handily exceeded expectations. If that amount doesn’t seem particularly striking to you, consider righty Kendall Graveman, another former Astros/Mariners setup man, signed a three-year $24MM deal last winter despite being a year younger at the time of signing. Montero stands as a third pricey relief re-signing, to go with Edwin Diaz and Robert Suarez.
3. How aggressive will the Orioles be this offseason?
Orioles general manager Mike Elias pledged in August that payroll will rise in 2023 — though it’d be hard for it to decline much over its 2022 levels — which prompted many O’s fans to dream of marquee free-agent splashes as the team emerges from its rebuild. Over the weekend, however, Elias stated that the Orioles will not “go from zero miles an hour to 60 miles an hour in one offseason,” which casts doubt on whether the team will jump right into the deep end of the free-agent pool. At present, John Means‘ $2.975MM salary is the only guarantee on the Orioles’ books, though between arbitration projections and a slate of pre-arb players to round out the roster, they project for a total of about $41MM, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez. There’s ample space for multiple additions to the payroll, then, be it via free agency or perhaps by way of acquiring an established veteran in exchange for some minor league talent. With an impressive young core featuring the likes of Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Cedric Mullins, Ryan Mountcastle and Austin Hays — plus righty Grayson Rodriguez and several more top prospects looming — the Orioles appear on the cusp of a return to contention — if they can make the right moves to supplement that group. With so much payroll space available and a deep farm from which to trade for Major League talent, they’re one of the most fascinating clubs of the offseason.
The Opener: Relief Market, Kershaw, Yoshida
As the offseason continues to roll along, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on throughout the day today:
1. Implications Of Diaz, Suarez Deals
The relief market has moved quickly in the early going of this offseason, with perhaps the top two options, Edwin Diaz and Robert Suarez, already off the market. Both relievers re-signed with the Mets and Padres, respectively, but the more notable piece of these signings is the contracts they both managed to secure. In signing a five-year, $102MM contract, Diaz became the first reliever to receive a $100MM guarantee or an AAV of $20MM, though given his superlative platform season (1.31 ERA/0.90 FIP), there was never any doubt that he would get paid handsomely. Suarez, while a top relief arm in this offseason’s class in his own right, pales in comparison to Diaz, with a 2.27 ERA and 3.32 FIP in 47 2/3 innings in 2022, his first major league season after playing the first six years of his career in Japan. Despite his lack of major-league experience and the fact that he’ll play 2023 at the age of 32, Suarez still managed to receive a five year, $46MM deal. While the AAV is about in line with what most would have expected, San Diego’s decision to sign Suarez to a deal that guarantees him money through his age-36 season certainly registers as a surprise, particularly given that there’s also an opt-out in the deal. With perhaps the two best relievers off the market, it will be interesting to see how the rest of the relief market plays out from here. Kenley Jansen, Rafael Montero, and Taylor Rogers represent some of the top options still available, and while they were projected for just two or three year deals in MLBTR’s Top 50 list yesterday, it’s reasonable to wonder if the Suarez deal indicates the relief market may be stronger than had previously been expected.
2. Kershaw, Dodgers Close To Deal
Reports last night indicated that the Dodgers were close to re-signing longtime ace Clayton Kershaw to another one-year contract similar to the one he received last offseason, and it’s possible said contract could be agreed upon as soon as today. This deal comes as no surprise, as Kershaw had previously mentioned that he was likely to continue playing in 2023, and despite rumors last year that he may sign with his hometown Texas Rangers, the more widely held expectation has been that if Kershaw is playing anywhere next season, it will be in Los Angeles. Should the Kershaw deal become official, the Dodgers will have additional security in their rotation headed into the meat of the offseason. Tyler Anderson (to whom the Dodgers extended a qualifying offer yesterday) and Andrew Heaney joined Kershaw in free agency after the 2022 season, leaving the club in need of more arms. Still, it’s reasonable to expect L.A. to continue searching for rotation help even with Kershaw returning for next year, particularly given his increasingly frequent trips to the injured list in recent years.
3. Masataka Yoshida Garnering Interest
It was reported last week that Nippon Professional Baseball star Masataka Yoshida may be posted by his team, the Japan Series champion Orix Buffaloes, and rumors have only grown since then. In particular, the folks at the New York Post seem confident not only that Yoshida will indeed be posted — Joel Sherman suggests such a move is expected to come next month — but that he will find considerable interest from MLB clubs. Sherman notes that Yoshida “is going to draw a lot of interest”, while Jon Heyman indicates that the Yankees, in particular, may be interested in Yoshida, whether or not they manage to re-sign Aaron Judge. Heyman notes that Yoshida’s lefty bat could help bring balance to a Yankees lineup that’s heavily right-handed, and stands to become even more so should they not re-sign first baseman Anthony Rizzo. Should Yoshida be posted, he would join the corner outfield market as one of the younger, more intriguing options behind Judge. Speculatively speaking, teams such as the Blue Jays, Rangers, and Mariners are among the many who could have interest in Yoshida.
The Opener: Free Agency, MLBTR’s Top 50, Rangers
As the baseball world prepares for the offseason to kick into a higher gear this evening, here are three things to keep an eye on throughout the day:
1. The Next Stage Of The Offseason Begins
At 4 PM CDT today, free agency will begin in earnest. Most importantly, that time is when free agents will be free to negotiate and sign new contracts with other clubs. It also serves as the deadline for teams to extend their outgoing players a Qualifying Offer, and for teams and players alike to make the few options decisions that remain undecided, such as those of Nick Martinez, who Dennis Lin of The Athletic notes may renegotiate his contract with San Diego, and Justin Turner. News should be expected to trickle in throughout the day leading up to 4 PM CDT, as players and teams make their final decisions and plans before the next stage of the offseason begins.
2. MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents
Once that QO/option deadline passes, we at MLB Trade Rumors will put the finishes touches on our annual Top 50 Free Agents And Predictions post. Some outlets have already published theirs, but we like to wait until the QO decisions have been revealed because they can have such a significant impact on a free agent’s market. This makes us a little bit late to the party but allows us to provide a bit more analysis and (hopefully) more accuracy. For instance, one year ago, we predicted that Brandon Belt would accept the QO and returns to the Giants, which eventually came to pass. For most borderline QO candidates, we have seperate predictions based on whether they get the offer or not. It’s our biggest post of the year and you should keep an eye out for it later today! Shortly after that comes out, we will also launch our annual prediction contest, where you can do your best to try and predict the unpredictable offseason.
3. Rangers Look To Fortify Rotation
The Rangers are looking to improve after a big offseason last year resulted in a record of 68-94 and a fourth place finish in the AL West in 2022, and they have no bigger need than the rotation, where they face plenty of questions as to who will slot in both in front of and behind Jon Gray. Texas shored up the back of their rotation yesterday evening in a trade with the Braves for Jake Odorizzi, but GM Chris Young will need to add more to his rotation in order to compete in 2023. The Rangers have been previously connected to lefty ace Carlos Rodon, and reports last night indicated that the club not only plans on extending Martin Perez a Qualifying Offer by today’s deadline, but is in negotiations with his camp on a multiyear deal as well. Should the Rangers be successful in their pursuits, a rotation of Rodon, Perez, Gray, Odorizzi, and a youngster such as Dane Dunning or Spencer Howard would be a significant improvement over 2022, though they’d still need to address their outfield situation to truly position themselves as contenders for 2023.
The Opener: Click, Option Decisions, White Sox
As the offseason continues to chug through it’s earliest stages, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on today:
1. Will James Click Continue As Houston’s GM?
While Dusty Baker has accepted a one-year contract extension as Astros manager, GM James Click did not do the same when owner Jim Crane offered him a one-year extension of his own, telling reporters he is “in discussions” regarding a new contract. While it’s something of a shock that the World Series-winning general manager wouldn’t receive a multi-year extension offer, as Jon Heyman of the New York Post notes, there has long been speculation of Crane looking for a change in the front office, which is only further fueled by reports that he shot down a deal for Cubs catcher Willson Contreras at the trade deadline. Heyman suggests that the Astros may have interest in David Stearns, a former Houston executive who recently stepped down from his president of baseball operations position with Milwaukee. Stearns is still under contract with the Brewers for 2023, however, so the Astros would likely need to make a minor trade along the lines of the deal between the Cubs and Red Sox to send Theo Epstein to Chicago after the 2011 season if they are to acquire his services for the 2023 season. It’s also worth noting that Stearns definitively stated upon stepping back as president he plans to remain in Milwaukee and spend more time with family.
2. Option Decisions Continue To Linger
On the eve of the deadline for options decisions, a few notable ones still linger. Perhaps the most notable player in the bunch is longtime Dodgers third baseman Justin Turner, on whom the club faces a $14MM decision on. A strong second half made what once seemed like an easy decision to decline the option much less clear cut. That being said, with players like Miguel Vargas and Michael Busch waiting in the wings, the Dodgers may prefer their younger internal options going forward. A few clubs also having intriguing option decisions to make in the rotation, most notably the Mets on Carlos Carrasco and the Orioles on Jordan Lyles. Both teams are relatively thin on proven rotation arms (the Mets thanks to other potential free-agent departures), so locking up a starter for 2023 could make sense for either club. That said, the $10MM the Orioles would spend on Lyles may be better served allocated to another starter with, perhaps, a higher ceiling, while the Mets may prefer to search for a younger option for their rotation than Carrasco, who will play 2023 at age 36. Aside from Carrasco, the Mets have Max Scherzer, 38, under contract for next season and are reportedly expressing interest in reunions with Jacob deGrom and Chris Bassitt, who are both in their mid-thirties.
3. White Sox Have Plenty Of Needs This Offseason
After a disappointing 81-81 season and with many holes to fill on the roster, the White Sox will need to be active this offseason. In addition to longtime first baseman Jose Abreu hitting free agency, outfielder AJ Pollock declined his player option in a surprising move, and Chicago declined to exercise their option on second baseman Josh Harrison. While these option decisions have saved the club some money (Pollock’s decision in particular saves Chicago $8MM), they still might not have a lot to spend this offseason. RosterResource estimates their 2023 payroll to be just over $174MM, not far below their all-time record payroll of $194MM in 2022. The Athletic’s James Fegan notes that while Hahn has expressed confidence in top prospect Oscar Colas as an outfield regular in 2023, he similarly noted the possibility that Eloy Jimenez will spend more time at DH going forward, leaving the club in position to pursue outfield options regardless of Colas’s readiness for an everyday major league role, particularly with Pollock’s departure meaning their best internal fourth outfielder is Adam Engel. Given most of the Chicago lineup is right-handed, an outfielder who can hit from the left side, such as Joc Pederson, or the switch-hitting Jurickson Profar, would make sense as a target. As for second base, Chicago’s dearth of production at the position in recent years makes them an obvious fit for Jean Segura, but a lower-cost option such as Adam Frazier could also make sense.