Headlines

Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

MLBTR Originals

Poll: Should The Tigers Consider A Tarik Skubal Trade?

By | at

The Tigers lost a heartbreaker in Game 5 of the ALDS when they fell to the Mariners in 15 innings. Detroit was viewed as one of the best teams — if not the best team — in baseball throughout the first half but slumped to a 34-43 record from the start of July onward. They lost control of the AL Central despite boasting an 11.5-game lead on August 23rd, but they managed to put away the Guardians in the AL Wild Card Series even after ceding the division crown to them just days earlier.

It’s easy to argue that Detroit would not have made it to the postseason at all if not for ace Tarik Skubal, the reigning AL Cy Young winner and 2025 Cy Young frontrunner. Over the past two seasons, Skubal has posted numbers that few pitchers can hope to match — 387 1/3 innings, 2.30 ERA, 31.2 K%, 4.5 BB% — and he’s been essential to both of Detroit’s runs into the playoffs for the past two years.

Skubal won’t be around forever, however. He’s scheduled to hit free agency during the 2026-27 offseason. With just $28.3MM on the books in guaranteed contracts for 2027 according to RosterResource, one can argue that the Tigers must do whatever it takes to extend Skubal or re-sign him in free agency. An extension doesn’t appear likely, though. If Skubal turns in a season anything like his 2024-25 campaigns, he could justifiably take aim at setting a new record among starting pitchers. Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s $325MM deal with the Dodgers stands as the current mark after narrowly edging out Gerrit Cole’s $324MM deal with the Yankees.

The Tigers have never spent more on a player than they did Miguel Cabrera, who they inked to an eight-year, $248MM extension back in 2014. The Tigers of the past few years haven’t come close to approaching the sort of overall spending they put forward during the 2016-17 seasons, when they carried a payroll in the $200MM range.

Would the Tigers be willing to give out a franchise-record deal to keep their ace? Asked about the matter after his season ended, Skubal himself told the Tigers’ beat that his job is “to go out there and play” and that such conversations are better left to the front office (via The Athletic’s Cody Stavenhagen). President of baseball operations Scott Harris isn’t tipping his hand publicly one way or another, however.

“Listen, I totally understand the question and understand that you have to ask me,” Harris said at the team’s end-of-season press conference when asked about Skubal’s future (video link, with the Skubal question landing around the 16:00 mark). “I’ve kind of learned over time, especially with this question, that general comments tend to get chopped up and forced into narratives. I can’t comment on our players being traded. I can’t comment on free agents, and I can’t comment on other teams’ players. So, I’m going to respond by just not actually commenting on it. Tarik is a Tiger. I hope he wins the Cy Young for a second consecutive year. He’s an incredible pitcher, and we’re lucky to have him. That’s all I can say on that.”

Fans of other clubs are understandably captivated with the idea of seeing their favorite clubs make a run at a Skubal trade. One could argue that if the Tigers don’t believe a long-term deal is possible, they’re better prioritizing long-term health of the organization than employing a win-at-all-costs-in-2026 mentality.

It goes without saying that having Skubal at the front of the team’s rotation would give Detroit its best chance of bringing home a championship next year. In addition to his dominant regular season work, he’s been a menace in the postseason with a 2.04 ERA, 1.92 FIP, and a 37.8% strikeout rate across his six starts. Skubal has not just been essential to the Tigers getting to October over the past two years, but he’s managed to shine when the lights are brightest.

Zooming out to look at the larger Tigers organization reveals that Detroit may not be particularly close to full power yet. Star pitching prospect Jackson Jobe made just ten starts this year before he was sidelined by Tommy John surgery, which is likely to eliminate his entire 2026 campaign. Even setting Jobe aside, the Tigers are bringing along a number of elite prospect talents who figure to make their big league debuts in the next few years. Shortstop Kevin McGonigle is considered one of the sport’s top 10 prospects and should make his way to the majors next year. Outfield prospect Max Clark is also frequently ranked as a top-10 leaguewide prospect, while catcher Josue Briceno and shortstop Bryce Rainer are typically regarded as top-50 talents.

That upcoming crop of youngsters could pair with Jobe and the team’s existing young core to produce a behemoth that competes for years to come. Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter, and Spencer Torkelson are all controlled through 2028, while Reese Olson is controlled through 2029, Dillon Dingler will be in town through 2030 and Colt Keith is locked up through 2032.

Proponents of a trade would argue that Skubal would fetch the sort of high-end talent who can help replace not only Skubal himself but also other key veterans like Casey Mize, Gleyber Torres, and Jake Rogers. On the other hand, the Tigers already have a touted farm system and know all too well how uncertain the future of even elite prospects can be.

It wasn’t long ago that Mize and Torkelson were viewed just as highly as McGonigle and Clark are now. They both contributed to the 2025 team, but neither has turned out to be the sort of franchise-defining player the Tigers hoped to be getting when each was drafted with the No. 1 overall pick. Even Skubal battled through four seasons of injuries and mediocrity before coming into form as a superstar last year.

How do MLBTR readers think the Tigers should proceed with Skubal this winter? Should they trade him to load up for the future or should the maximize the 2026 even with no guarantees of signing him long-term? Have your say in the poll below:

Will The Pirates Trade Dennis Santana?

By | at

After years of speculation, the Pirates traded their closer at this past summer’s deadline. David Bednar was shipped off to the Bronx for a three-player package headlined by catching prospect Rafael Flores. That opened the ninth inning for breakout setup man Dennis Santana, who got an extended run as a closer for the first time in his career.

Santana has been a revelation since the Pirates claimed him off waivers from the Yankees in June 2024. The Dominican-born righty tossed 44 1/3 innings of 2.44 ERA ball down the stretch that year, earning some stability with the fifth team of his big league career. He began this season in a setup role, then briefly took over as closer when Bednar’s early-season struggles got him demoted to Triple-A. Bednar was back in the ninth by the end of April, but the closer role became Santana’s for good after the deadline.

The various roles didn’t slow him down. The 29-year-old Santana turned in 70 1/3 frames with a career-best 2.18 earned run average. He recorded 16 saves and 12 holds while only relinquishing three leads all season. Santana had a less impressive 3.75 ERA after the trade deadline, yet that’s mostly attributable to a five-run blowup at Coors Field on August 1. He worked to a 1.90 ERA while holding opponents to a .152/.236/.291 slash in 23 appearances after that.

Santana doesn’t have the usual closer profile. He struck out 22.2% of batters faced, right around the league average for big league relievers. His 94.7 MPH average fastball speed is fine but not exceptional for a late-inning arm. Santana’s wipeout slider is his bread-and-butter offering, a pitch that gets enough whiffs that teams could project his strikeout rate to climb by a couple percentage points. He’s never going to be Mason Miller, though, and most clubs would probably project Santana more as the second or third-best arm in a contending bullpen.

Pittsburgh received trade interest in Santana at the deadline. The Phillies were the only team specifically known to have checked in, but it stands to reason the Bucs heard from at least a handful of clubs. They clearly didn’t find an offer to their liking. They’re now down to their final season of contractual control. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Santana for a $3.4MM salary that easily fits within the budget of any team, even one that runs payrolls as low as the Bucs do.

The Pirates aren’t intentionally rebuilding, but they’re coming off a 71-91 season that represented a step back from their consecutive 76-win campaigns before that. Should the Pirates view this offseason as a sell-high opportunity while letting Isaac Mattson, Justin Lawrence and Carmen Mlodzinski compete for the ninth? Will they?

Weigh in on our latest poll.

 

 

Previewing The 2025-26 Free Agent Class: Third Base

By | at

A number of teams (and their fanbases) have already turned their attention towards the offseason. Identifying free agent targets is a big part of that prep work, so it’s worth taking a look at the players who’ll be available at each position.

We’re moving to third base, where the eligibility cutoff is players who either logged at least 50 innings at the position this season or have primarily played there in their careers. Most shortstops could theoretically handle the hot corner. Some teams might have interest in Jorge Polanco and/or Ha-Seong Kim at third base — the Mariners played Polanco there for 43 innings — but Polanco was covered in our second base preview and Kim will be highlighted more prominently in our shortstop preview. Ages listed are for the 2026 season.

Previous entries in this series: catcher, first base, second base

Regular Third Basemen

Alex Bregman (32)

Bregman can opt out of the final two years and $80MM of his contract this offseason. Deferred money in the contract reportedly knocks the present-day valuation of that sum down by around $10MM annually. Even absent the deferrals, Bregman would feel like all but a lock to opt out. He secured that contract last year when he was saddled a qualifying offer, which won’t be the case this season, as players can only receive one QO in their careers.

Early on, Bregman played like a borderline MVP candidate, hitting .299/.385/.553 with 11 homers, 17 doubles, a 9.7% walk rate and an 18.6% strikeout rate through May 23. A quad strain shelved him for close to two months at that point. There’s a narrative that Bregman floundered down the stretch after that injury, but it doesn’t accurately paint the whole picture. Bregman slashed an outstanding .325/.408/.518 with more walks (11.5%) than strikeouts (8.5%) in his first 130 plate appearances off the injured list. Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow said this week that Bregman was activated at less than 100% and perhaps wasn’t running full speed for much of that time. Be that as it may, he was still quite productive.

Bregman tanked for the next three weeks or so, hitting .151/.223/.215 in 103 plate appearances. He struck out at only a 10.7% clip in that time but was dogged by a .159 average on balls in play. Over the final 10 days of play, Bregman emerged from his slump to hit .276/.417/.414 in 36 plate appearances.

The notion that Bregman’s second-half “swoon” was driven by his quad injury doesn’t really seem to hold up. Based on Breslow’s comments, we can assume he wasn’t 100%, but it’s a tougher sell that playing at “80%” (as Breslow suggested) really impacted Bregman’s bat. If the quad were that much of a problem, would he have come back hitting even better than he did pre-injury for about a full month? This seems like a good hitter had a bad three weeks because of some ugly results on balls in play. That happens.

On the whole, Bregman hit .273/.360/.462 (125 wRC+) with a revitalized walk rate and improved batted-ball metrics. His defense, even with an ailing quadriceps, graded out better than average. Both FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference peg him at 3.5 WAR in only 114 games. There’s a pretty easy case that Bregman is a bankable four- to five-WAR player, and while talk of veteran presence/clubhouse leadership/intangibles is often overstated, it seems genuine that front offices are captivated by his leadership skills and personality.

Long-term deals beginning at age 32 aren’t common, but Bregman’s a better 32-year-old free agent than most and can probably find five or even six years in free agency. Even if that were to fall through, a two- or three-year pact comparable to the one he signed last winter would probably be there to provide a soft landing.

Eugenio Suarez (34)

Suarez’s strikeout rate crept back up close to 30% this year after a welcomed dip in 2024. He struggled, rate-wise, after a trade sending him back to the Mariners, and this year’s defensive grades at third base were the worst of his career.

He also hit 49 home runs.

Suarez’s .228 average and .298 on-base percentage aren’t going to stand out — not for good reasons, anyhow — but he slugged .526 and tied a career-best in home runs six years after previously belting 49 dingers for the Reds in 2019’s juiced-ball season. Suarez has game-changing power, second only to Kyle Schwarber among free agents, and is still playable at third base, even if he’s below average there now. He’ll strike out too much, but he’s one of only three reliable sources of 30-homer pop in free agency this winter alongside Schwarber and Pete Alonso. Unlike those two, he has at least some defensive utility. (A below-average third baseman is more valuable than a below-average first baseman or a pure DH with occasional outfield reps.)

Age will probably keep Suarez’s contract to a maximum of three years, and he might even be capped at two, but that will oddly make him even more appealing to some teams. Clubs are increasingly reluctant to hand out long-term deals, so having his contract length inherently limited by his age should lead to a broad market that allows Suarez to command a weighty average annual value.

Yoan Moncada (31)

Admittedly, “regular” is something of a misnomer when it comes to a player who’s tallied all of 292 games in the past four seasons combined. Still, when Moncada has been healthy enough to take the field, he’s been a pure third baseman, and a quietly solid one at that. Over the past two seasons, he’s hit .240/.338/.441 with a dozen homers in 334 turns at the plate. He was roughly league-average at the plate in about a half season with the White Sox in 2023, too.

Moncada isn’t the star he looked to be early in his career. Injuries have regularly worn him down and kept him off the field. Any team signing him will have to expect more of the same at this point, but that team can also expect Moncada to be relatively productive when he’s on the diamond. The switch-hitter won’t turn 31 until late May next year. A team hoping to catch lightning in a bottle with a low-cost acquisition at third base will probably sign him to a one-year deal. For whatever period of the season he’s healthy, it’s reasonable to expect Moncada to be about 10% better than average at the plate, and there’s upside for a bit more than that if things really click.

NPB Stars Who Are Expected To Be Posted

Munetaka Murakami (26)

It’s an open question whether Murakami can handle third base in the major leagues, but it’s been the star slugger’s primary position with the Yakult Swallows in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. He’s also played plenty of first base and even cameoed in right field for three games this season. Scouting reports feel a move to first base will eventually be necessary, but it’s certainly plausible that a team might be willing to let Murakami have a go at the hot corner for at least the first few years of a contract.

After all, Murakami’s calling card isn’t his glove, but rather his age and his legitimately prodigious power. The two-time NPB MVP missed multiple months with an oblique strain in 2025 but homered nearly once every 10 plate appearances when healthy, bashing 22 round-trippers in just 224 plate appearances while hitting .273/.379/.663. Murakami has slam-dunk 80-grade power on the 20-80 scale. He’s been more pull-heavy in 2025’s injury-shortened season, but Murakami has all-fields power with blistering exit velocities. It’s the type of left-handed raw power in line with countryman Shohei Ohtani and NL home run leader Kyle Schwarber (as you can see in this early-October home run, clocked at 117 mph off the bat).

Murakami has seen his contact rate drop and his strikeout rate climb in the three seasons since his being named NPB MVP in consecutive seasons back in 2021-22. He’s fanned in around 28% of his plate appearances since 2023. However, he’s also walked in nearly 16% of his plate appearances during that time and is currently homering at an even more rapid pace than his ’22 campaign, when he belted a career-high 56 home runs in 141 games.

Murakami has the power ceiling and youth to command a long-term contract, likely with at least one opt-out opportunity. Strikeout and defensive concerns notwithstanding, he’s likely going to rank prominently on our Top 50 free agent rankings based on the earning power created by that blend of youth and rare power.

Kazuma Okamoto (30)

As is the case with Murakami, Okamoto is a plus hitter in NPB whose 2025 season has been shortened by injury (elbow, in his case) and who comes with concerns about a potential move across the diamond. His right-handed bat has plus raw power but not to the extent of Murakami’s top-of-the-scale thunder. However, Okamoto’s hit tool is vastly superior, as evidenced by a tiny 11.3% strikeout rate in 229 plate appearances this season (and a 15.9% mark in a full 2024 campaign).

Make no mistake, though. Just because Okamoto’s doesn’t have as much power as Murakami doesn’t mean his power won’t be coveted. He rattled off six straight 30-homer seasons from 2018-23, topping out at 41 dingers in ’23. He “slipped” to 29 home runs in 2024, but his 2025 pace would have him in line for one of his highest career totals; he’s swatted 15 homers in 293 plate appearances. Overall, Okamoto is hitting .327/.416/.598.

If Okamoto were a lock to stay at third base, his earning power would be considerably higher. He was regarded as a below-average defender at the hot corner even before this year’s elbow injury, however, and the injury now creates further concern about his defensive outlook. The offensive bar to clear for a righty-swinging first baseman is much higher than that of a third baseman. Still, Okamoto’s bat and incredibly consistent track record in NPB will draw plenty of interest and should earn him a notable contract — if he’s posted. He’s the captain of the Yomiuri Giants, a team that rarely posts players for MLB clubs. However, Okamoto has asked the team to post him and is only one year away from becoming a true international free agent. The Giants’ options are to hold him for a year and lose him for no compensation, or to post him now and receive potentially tens of millions of dollars from an MLB club via posting.

Multi-Position Players

Willi Castro (29)

The versatile Castro’s bat tanked following a deadline trade from the Twins to the Cubs, but his overall track record across the past three seasons is strong. The switch-hitter is a .244/.328/.386 hitter dating back to 2023, and he’s comfortable at second base, third base, shortstop and in the outfield. He’s not a plus defender at any of those spots, but he’s capable enough and runs well. He’s a nice bench piece for any contender and could potentially get a look as a semi-regular for a team with needs at second base/left field.

Miguel Rojas (37)

Rojas has minimal power and doesn’t walk much, but he’s a high-contact hitter who consistently posts quality batting averages and provides slick defense around the infield. He has plus grades at shortstop, third base and second base in his career and has continued to show he can play all of those positions at a high level.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa (31)

Like Rojas, Kiner-Falefa is a versatile, high-contact, low-power utility player. His right-handed bat has produced a career .262/.311/.349 line, and he’s an annual threat for 15 to 20 steals. “IKF” doesn’t walk much and has never topped eight homers in a season, but he’s a well-regarded defensive player who can handle multiple spots in the infield and outfield. Kiner-Falefa has particularly strong grades at second and third but is solid enough at shortstop and even logged a combined 567 innings between center field and left field in 2023-24.

Luis Rengifo (29)

The switch-hitting Rengifo looked like he was trending toward a nice multi-year deal from 2022-24 when he hit a combined .273/.323/.431 (111 wRC+) and struck out at just a 16.3% clip. His bat flopped with a .238/.287/.335 output (73 wRC+) in his platform season, however. Rengifo can play second base and third base, though he’s better at the former and not a consistently plus defender at either. (He did post strong second base grades in 2025.) He’s probably looking at a one-year deal, though perhaps his youth and track record could earn him a modest two-year pact.

Amed Rosario (30)

Rosario’s days as a starting shortstop — or a shortstop, in general — are likely behind him. The former top prospect never blossomed into stardom, but he’s a useful utility player who can handle multiple positions and beat up left-handed pitching. Rosario can play second base, third base or the outfield corners, and he has enough experience at shortstop that he can handle the spot in a pinch (even though his defensive marks have reached worrying levels). He posted a solid .276/.309/.436 line in 191 plate appearances this season (106 wRC+) and is a career .298/.336/.464 hitter against lefties. He should get a big league deal and fill a bench role again in 2026.

Minor League Deal Candidates

Offseason Outlook: Washington Nationals

By | at

The Nationals hoped the 2025 season would represent a step forward in their rebuild, but the opposite took place. The results were discouraging enough that ownership fired not only manager Davey Martinez but longtime president/general manager Mike Rizzo, who'd run the team's baseball operations for nearly two decades. A new front office regime will try to turn things around for a club that won more games in 2024 (71) than in 2025 (66).

Guaranteed Contracts

Other Financial Commitments

Total 2026 commitments: $49MM
Total long-term commitments: $79MM through 2030

Option Decisions

  • None

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz):

Non-tender candidates: Alfaro, Garcia, Thompson, Adams

Free Agents

The Nationals' summer ousting of Rizzo kicked off an executive search while longtime Rizzo lieutenant Mike DeBartolo ran baseball operations through the trade deadline and the end of the season. Washington spoke with executives from multiple clubs and ultimately settled on Red Sox assistant general manager Paul Toboni to head up the organization. Because he was in the running to be promoted to Red Sox general manager under chief baseball officer Craig Breslow, Toboni was hired with the title president of baseball operations. The Nats could hire a GM to work underneath him at some point, but it wasn't framed as an immediate priority at Toboni's introductory press conference.

Changes in the front office have already begun. The Nats will retain DeBartolo in a yet-to-be-announced role, but assistant GMs Eddie Longosz and Mark Scialabba are set to depart the organization amid further changes in the scouting department. Even if Toboni doesn't immediately add a general manager, it seems likely that he'll bring on some new hires to take over some of the AGM and scouting responsibilities (particularly if DeBartolo is moved to a role other than assistant general manager).

The Nats will also need to hire a new skipper. Interim manager Miguel Cairo is a candidate in the team's ongoing search, Toboni indicated this week, but the Nationals are also in the process of interviewing candidates from outside the organization. Washington is one of an incredible seven teams looking for a new manager and one of an even more remarkable nine clubs that will have a different manager on Opening Day 2026 than on Opening Day 2025.

Of course, beyond the broader changes at the highest levels of the organization, fans are more concerned with what the offseason will look like under the new regime. Toboni naturally didn't delve into specifics at his introduction. He spoke in general terms, repeatedly mentioning the desire to build a "scouting and player development monster" that eventually stands as the envy of the industry.

Even more pressing, however, is what the future holds for some of the organization's key young players. While emerging outfielders like James Wood and Daylen Lile are controlled for another five-plus seasons, many of the team's other most important contributors are already halfway -- or more -- through their original level of club control. That'll put Toboni in an interesting spot this winter as he looks to determine whether some of his core players are building blocks or whether they're best used as trade currency to further stock a farm system that, even after picking No. 1 overall in July and trading several players at the 2025 deadline, ranked 21st in the majors at Baseball America and 23rd at MLB.com.

Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription

BENEFITS
  • Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
  • Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
  • Remove ads and support our writers.
  • Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker

Poll: Will Ha-Seong Kim Opt Out?

By | at

It wasn’t long ago that infielder Ha-Seong Kim looked like a strong bet to land a nine-figure deal in free agency. Last September, Kim was wrapping up a season in which he had hit .233/.330/.370, good for a league average wRC+ of 101. He combined that with strong defense at shortstop and 22 steals on the base paths, and it was actually the weakest of his last three seasons in the majors. Since the start of 2022, Kim had hit .250/.336/.385 with 72 steals, a 17.9% strikeout rate, and a walk rate of 11.0% with 13.0 bWAR and 10.5 fWAR accumulated.

A player who was consistently worth three to five wins per season entering his age-29 season looked like a slam dunk for a sizable deal, but that was derailed when he underwent shoulder surgery 364 days ago. He wound up signing a $29MM guarantee with the Rays that spanned the 2025 and ’26 seasons, though it gave him the opportunity to opt out of the final year and $16MM of that deal if he so chose. Kim’s campaign this year was not an especially robust one, as he appeared in just 48 games and hit .234/.304/.345 in 191 plate appearances. The Rays were concerned enough about the possibility of having Kim on payroll in 2026 that they exposed him to waivers last month, at which point he was claimed by the Braves.

On paper, that might make the decision to opt in and try to bounce back next year an easy one for Kim. It’s hard to say that a 191 plate appearance sample size where he posted an 82 wRC+ with middling defensive grades would improve his stock in free agency much, after all. With that being said, it may not be an entirely foregone conclusion. Kim did manage to look much more like his former self down the stretch with Atlanta, hitting .253/.316/.368 (91 wRC+) with a 16.3% strikeout rate and some of the strongest expected numbers of his career. His overall production remained below average due in part to a BABIP of just .271, but it suddenly became much easier to see Kim returning to the average to slightly above average bat he once was after his performance in the Braves organization.

Of course, that time in Atlanta represents just 98 plate appearances, which makes it difficult to draw any significant conclusions. The Braves themselves certainly appear satisfied with Kim’s progress, though, as president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos has made no bones about his desire to keep the infielder in the fold for next season. With a relatively barren market for shortstop-caliber players outside of Bo Bichette, it’s not hard to imagine other teams seeing Kim’s upside and being willing to spend a good bit more than the $16MM guarantee Kim would be opting out of, even if that would come in the form of a similarly short-term, opt-out laden arrangement as the one he signed last winter.

There’s certainly risk in opting out of a guaranteed $16MM payday coming off an injury-marred season, and it would be entirely understandable if Kim preferred to simply stick with the Braves and hope to bounce back enough in 2026 that he puts himself in line for a lucrative contract next winter. With that being said, it must be considered that Kim is represented by the Boras Corporation, and agent Scott Boras is known for preferring his clients to test free agency when possible. That’s not a hard-and-fast rule, however; Boras clients Cody Bellinger and Gerrit Cole both had the opportunity to test free agency via opt outs last winter and ultimately declined to do so, though Cole did initially opt out before mutually agreeing with the Yankees to remain in the organization on the terms of his original contract.

How do MLBTR readers expect Kim to handle his impending option? Will he test free agency and try to take advantage of a weak shortstop class, or is he more likely to stick with Atlanta on his current deal? Have your say in the poll below:

Offseason Outlook: Cincinnati Reds

By | at

The Reds made the postseason in a 162-game schedule for the first time in 12 years. They looked overmatched against the Dodgers and were swept out of the Wild Card Series. This year was a nice stepping stone, but the Reds need to add a couple bats to pull alongside the true best teams in the National League.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Hunter Greene, RHP: $41MM through 2028 (including buyout of ’29 club option)
  • Ke'Bryan Hayes, 3B: $36MM through 2029 (including buyout of '30 club option)
  • Jose Trevino, C: $11.25MM through 2027 (including buyout of '28 club option)

Other Financial Commitments

Option Decisions

  • Team, OF Austin Hays hold $12MM mutual option ($1MM buyout)
  • Team holds $6.5MM option on RHP Scott Barlow ($1MM buyout)
  • Team holds $3MM option on LHP Brent Suter ($250K buyout)

2026 financial commitments: $37.5MM
Total future commitments: $105.5MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projected salaries courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Lux, Espinal, Gibaut, Moll, Benson

Free Agents

The Reds ranked 14th in MLB with 4.42 runs per game. That's an underwhelming mark for a team that plays in one of the league's most favorable hitter's parks. They'll need to improve upon a .245/.315/.391 batting line. The offense should be the offseason priority, but their first couple decisions are in the bullpen.

Cincinnati holds options on relievers Scott Barlow and Brent Suter. It's an easy call to move on from Barlow, who'll receive a $1MM buyout. They'll probably also opt for a $250K buyout on Suter, as the Cincinnati native struggled to a 7.36 ERA after the All-Star Break. Closer Emilio Pagán hits the market following one of the best seasons of his career. Nick Martinez will again be a free agent after playing this year on a $21.05MM qualifying offer salary.

If Pagán walks, the Reds could be in the market for a closer. They're not going to spend at the level it'd take to bring in Edwin Díaz, nor does a splash for Robert Suarez seem advisable given their needs on offense. Old friend Raisel Iglesias will be available on a one or two-year deal at age 36, though he pitched well enough with Atlanta to command an eight-figure salary. Kenley Jansen will sign a decent one-year deal, while Ryan Helsley and Michael Kopech are probably looking for pillow contracts. Devin Williams, Brad Keller, Luke Weaver, Kyle Finnegan and Pagán himself should all be looking at multi-year contracts -- though it'd be a surprise if Pagán commands more than two guaranteed years entering his age-35 season.

Tony Santillan, Graham Ashcraft and Connor Phillips are Cincy's top returning leverage arms. Santillan has a little bit of closing experience, while Phillips has shown wipeout stuff with hit-or-miss command. If the Reds find the prices too high on free agent closers, perhaps they'll let Santillan and Phillips compete for the ninth inning while pursuing a setup type like Tyler Rogers or Phil Maton. In any case, they should bring in at least one back-end arm.

Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription

BENEFITS
  • Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
  • Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
  • Remove ads and support our writers.
  • Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker

Poll: Should The Twins Trade Pablo Lopez This Offseason?

By | at

The Twins conducted a complete fire sale at the trade deadline this year as they shipped 11 players off their big league roster, but one significant player who stayed in place was ace right-hander Pablo Lopez. The talented righty was limited to just 14 starts this season by a hamstring strain and a shoulder strain before his season came to an end in September due to a forearm strain.

The fact of Lopez’s injury-marred season left the Twins unable to move him at the deadline this year when they purged the majority of their veteran players, but that doesn’t mean a deal can’t be made this offseason. After all, the aforementioned forearm strain that ended his season came with “no concern” regarding Lopez’s UCL or elbow, and all indications point to him being expected to have a normal offseason and be ready for the 2026 campaign. What’s more, Lopez was nothing short of excellent when healthy this year as he pitched to a 2.79 ERA with a 3.19 FIP in 75 2/3 innings of work.

That’s the sort of top-of-the-rotation potential that contending teams will want to bring in desperately this winter, and the Twins could stand to benefit from trading Lopez during an offseason where there are few free agents who offer much certainty. Dylan Cease, Zac Gallen, and Framber Valdez all had tough years that didn’t quite reach their typical standards, while Brandon Woodruff and Shane Bieber face health-related questions after seasons coming off major surgery. Lopez has his own flaws, of course, including his array of recent injuries and a pedestrian 4.08 ERA as recently as last year. Even so, the uncertainty surrounding this crop of free agent starters can only serve to make Lopez more attractive by comparison.

It’s unclear what the Twins’ payroll capacity or competitive expectations for 2025 are, but if the team embarks on a lengthy rebuild it would make little sense to hold onto the final two years and $43.5MM left on the Lopez’s contract. Young arms like Mick Abel, Simeon Woods Richardson, Taj Bradley, Zebby Matthews, and David Festa are all likely to compete for a spot in the rotation. Holdovers Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober will surely be in the rotation (unless they’re traded themselves), and Kendry Rojas could be ready for the majors at some point next year as well. That deep group of young rotation pieces makes Lopez a bit more expendable to the Twins than he would be for most teams, at least if they aren’t expecting to compete next year.

Given the fact that Lopez would surely bring back a hefty return on the trade market and the depth the Twins currently enjoy in their rotation, using the right-hander to infuse more offensive talent into the club’s roster would make a lot of sense. With that being said, it’s worth noting that the Twins actually still have some notable talent on paper. Lopez, Ryan, and Ober could form a front three in the rotation that many contenders in the league would be jealous of. Star outfielder Byron Buxton has been healthier of late and has the offensive ability to be an anchor for a playoff lineup. Players like Royce Lewis and Matt Wallner have shown impressive ceilings despite their inconsistency, while young bats like Brooks Lee and Luke Keaschall could take a big step forward. It’s not impossible to imagine a viable offensive core coming together as soon as next year, especially if top prospects like Emmanuel Rodriguez and Walker Jenkins can contribute at some point.

Of course, even with those positives the Twins would need to significantly invest in the team in order to build a real contender for 2026. RosterResource estimates the club’s current payroll for 2026 to fall into the range of $95MM, and while that leaves around $40MM in budget space relative to the 2025 club’s payroll it’s an open question how much of that (if any) will actually be reinvested into the major league club given the clear financial motivations behind this summer’s Correa trade.

The Twins would need serious help in the bullpen in order to compete after losing Griffin Jax, Louis Varland, and Jhoan Duran at the deadline, and players like Kody Clemens and Austin Martin starting regularly at first base and in left field wouldn’t exactly inspire confidence either. If the front office is facing substantial financial constraints that weren’t in place this time last year, there may be an argument for moving Lopez even if they do want to compete next year. After all, his $21.75MM salary could then be reinvested into the offense or bullpen, both of which have much less depth than the rotation does at present.

How do MLBTR readers view the situation? Should the Twins trade Lopez this offseason, either in hopes of reallocating his salary to other parts of the roster or as part of a full-scale rebuild? Or should they keep their ace in the fold to give themselves the best shot of winning next year? Have your say in the poll below:

Poll: Will The Phillies Exercise Jose Alvarado’s Option?

By | at

The Phillies are still fighting for their playoff lives in the NLDS against the Dodgers, but whether L.A. completes the sweep today or Philadelphia mounts a comeback and makes it all the way to the World Series, the offseason is looming. Five days after the World Series concludes, teams will have to make their first major roster-related decisions of the offseason when club options come due. The majority of these options lack much intrigue, but the Phillies face the interesting call of deciding whether to pay lefty reliever Jose Alvarado $9MM for his services next year or offer him a $500K buyout and send him to free agency.

The 30-year-old Alvarado has accomplished quite a lot in parts of nine seasons as a big leaguer. Among 88 relievers to log 300 or more innings since the start of the 2017 season, Alvarado’s 3.45 ERA (37th) and 3.50 SIERA (40th) both rank in the top half while his 3.21 FIP (15th), 29.7% strikeout rate (14th), and 51.8% groundball rate (13th) all rank in the top-15. That look at his overall body of work casts Alvarado as a very solid relief arm, if a step below the elite tier. In a market where even one year deals for quality setup men often break eight figures, a $9MM option on a pitcher like that seems like an easy choice to exercise, particularly given Philadelphia’s difficulties finding quality replacements for key pieces like Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estevez this past offseason.

Things may not necessarily be that simple with Alvarado, however. While Alvarado’s overall stats are quite good, he’s experienced a great deal of year-to-year volatility throughout his career. He’s been utterly dominant, as he was when he pitched to a 1.74 ERA in 42 appearances with the Phillies back in 2022. Other years, however, he’s been more pedestrian than anything else. Of his nine seasons in the majors, just five of them have seen him post an ERA below 4.00.

That volatility makes him far less reliable than many other late inning arms around the game. With closers like Edwin Diaz and Devin Williams expected to be available this winter, it’s at least plausible the Phillies could feel their funds are better spent elsewhere. That’s all before considering Alvarado’s recent history, which has been ugly both on and off the field. Even when looking at his performance the past two years in a vacuum, his numbers haven’t been especially exciting. Since the start of the 2024 campaign, Alvarado has pitched to a 4.00 ERA (107 ERA+) with a 3.74 FIP.

Those are the numbers of a decent middle reliever, but not someone you would trust in a high leverage situation. The elephant in the room that is Alvarado’s PED suspension earlier this year further complicates the decision Philadelphia faces. It’s impossible for anyone other than the Phillies themselves to know what sort of impact Alvarado’s suspension had within the clubhouse, but from a purely performance-related standpoint the suspension calls into question how well the southpaw will be able to sustain his previous success going forward. A string of eight appearances down the stretch where he posted a 7.50 ERA while surrendering three home runs in six innings before his season ended due to a forearm strain did little to inspire confidence headed into next year, as well.

Even with all those potential red flags acknowledged, however, it’s still not hard to make the case for the Phillies to pick up Alvarado’s option. The club will surely be focused on filling the void impact players like Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto will leave in the lineup, and it will be a pricey endeavor to either re-sign or replace these free agents. The rotation may not be the stabilizing force that it once was, as Ranger Suarez is also a free agent, Aaron Nola struggled badly this year, and Zack Wheeler is still recovering from surgery to correct thoracic outlet syndrome.

This all adds more pressure on the bullpen to perform than ever before in the team’s current window. Even in Alvarado’s weakest seasons, he’s been a viable middle relief arm, and it’s nearly impossible for him to be a worse investment than Jordan Romano and his 8.23 ERA were this season. Perhaps, then, locking in the combination of upside and a solid enough floor that Alvarado provides will make sense for the team as they look to 2026 with only Matt Strahm, Orion Kerkering, and Tanner Banks locked into the bullpen behind closer Jhoan Duran. Even if the Phillies don’t want to roster Alvarado next year, there’s the distinct possibility that another club in need of a left-handed arm for their bullpen might be interested in working out a trade for Alvarado given his relatively affordable salary and substantial upside.

How do MLBTR readers think the Phillies will handle Alvarado’s upcoming option? Will they keep him in the fold to either work out of their bullpen next year or try to trade this winter, or will they cut bait and let him walk in free agency? Have your say in the poll below:

Poll: Should The Orioles Stick With Tony Mansolino?

By | at

The Orioles saw their 2025 season more or less end before it started due to a brutal 15-32 record in their first 47 games. That start to the season saw manager Brandon Hyde get fired in mid May, while third base coach Tony Mansolino took over as the club’s interim manager. The Pirates decided to stick with Don Kelly long-term after he took over for Derek Shelton earlier this year. The Angels opted against keeping Ray Montgomery in the manager’s chair after he took up the mantle due to Ron Washington’s illness.

Mansolino has neither been extended nor dismissed, and Mike Elias remains in place as the club’s president of baseball operations, leaving no uncertainty in the front office to delay the club’s decision. Instead, Mansolino remains in limbo. Mansolino is set to be a candidate for the manager job in Baltimore, but he’s far from guaranteed to remain in the role and a wide-ranging search is expected. That makes some sense. With a young core that was in the playoffs in both 2023 and ’24, the Orioles are still in the middle of their contention window even despite this year’s disastrous 87-loss campaign. A quick turnaround is not only possible, but perhaps even expected given their collection of young hitting talent.

That could attract plenty of interesting candidates to the role, and the allure of hiring a big-name manager is obvious. After all, the Reds’ decision to hire Terry Francona last offseason got them to the playoffs in a 162-game season for the first time since 2013. The Rangers’ decision to hire Bruce Bochy a few years ago got the franchise its first ever World Series championship that same year. Joe Maddon’s second year as manager in Chicago ended the club’s infamous World Series drought. For a franchise like Baltimore that last won the World Series in 1983 and is still in the early years since emerging from a lengthy rebuilding period, it would be understandable if those success stories held some appeal.

Mansolino managed Baltimore to a 60-59 record after taking over for Hyde in spite of one of the weakest rotations in baseball, an offense that suffered from injuries and under-performance, and a sell-off at the trade deadline that shipped out valuable pieces like Ramon Laureano and Ryan O’Hearn. The Orioles had a 35-30 record under Mansolino through the day of the trade deadline, a 94-win pace that would actually represent an improvement not only over this season, but also the club’s 2024 record if maintained over a full season.

Of course, evaluating managerial performance is difficult to do from the outside of an organization. In a sample of just 65 games, it’s easy for one hot streak to change the perception of the stretch. Even Mansolino’s 119 games on the job can be looked at with something of an asterisk. After all, most teams would look a great deal better if you simply ignored their worst 43-game stretch of the year.

How do MLBTR readers think the Elias and the Orioles should approach their managerial vacancy? Did Mansolino do enough in his time managing the team this year to earn a longer opportunity, or should the team pivot to a fresh voice? Have your say in the poll below:

Previewing The 2025-26 Free Agent Class: Second Base

By | at

A number of teams (and their fanbases) have already turned their attention towards the offseason. Identifying free agent targets is a big part of that prep work, so it’s worth taking a look at the players who’ll be available at each position.

We’re moving to second base, where the eligibility cutoff is players who either logged at least 50 innings at the position this season or have primarily played there in their careers. Every shortstop could theoretically play second base, and there’ll be teams that have interest in Bo Bichette and/or Ha-Seong Kim on the right side of the infield. They’ll be covered in greater detail with the shortstop preview, so we’ll limit this to true second basemen and/or utility players. Ages listed are for the 2026 season.

Previous entries in this series: catcher, first base

Everyday Players

Gleyber Torres (29)

Torres hits the market for a second straight season. He chose a one-year, $15MM pillow contract with the Tigers last time. Torres was coming off a relative down season in his final year with the Yankees. He’d hit .257/.330/.378 across 665 plate appearances, and while that was weighed down by a slow start, teams clearly weren’t making the kind of long-term offers he’d sought.

The stint in Detroit started brilliantly. Torres hit .281/.387/.425 in the first half and was named the AL’s starting second baseman at the All-Star Game. The numbers dropped significantly after that, as he limped to a .223/.320/.339 finish amidst Detroit’s near collapse. He ended the year with numbers that were only a little better than he managed in 2024: .256/.358/.387 with 16 homers over 628 plate appearances.

Torres is a bat-first second baseman who is a good but not great hitter. He’s young enough to have a shot at a four or even five years, but that would’ve been easier to see if his numbers hadn’t crashed in the second half. Free agency generally hasn’t been kind to second basemen in recent years, especially those who aren’t capable of or willing to play other positions. Torres has been adamant about sticking about the position in the past and seemingly rebuffed interest from the Nationals in moving to third base last offseason. It’s not clear if he’ll be more open to moving around the diamond in his second trip to free agency.

The Tigers could make Torres a qualifying offer, which will reportedly come in around $22MM. That looked quite likely early in the season but now seems borderline. The Giants, Angels, Reds, Royals, Astros and potentially Nationals could all be involved if Detroit lets him walk.

Jorge Polanco (32)

Polanco’s contract technically contains a $6MM player option, but he’s going to decline that and hit free agency. The Mariners surprisingly re-signed him on the heels of a disappointing 2024 season. Seattle attributed the down year to a knee injury through which he’d played that required postseason meniscus surgery. They’ve been proven right with a resurgent year from the switch-hitting infielder. Polanco drilled 26 homers and 30 doubles with a .265/.326/.495 slash line in the regular season. He’s carried the hot bat into October, blasting a couple solo homers off Tarik Skubal on Sunday night to help the Mariners even their Division Series against Detroit.

While Polanco can still hit, he’ll face questions about his defensive workload over 162 games. Seattle initially planned to play him at third base, believing that not needing to navigate the second base bag would be easier on his knee. That lasted five games before renewed soreness and an oblique injury led the M’s to use him as a full-time designated hitter for a while. He began mixing in second base work in June and played there regularly for the final three weeks of the season. He logged a little under 300 innings at the keystone overall.

Polanco is eligible for a qualifying offer. Seattle probably wouldn’t want to commit $22MM at the beginning of the offseason, but he has played so well this year that it’s at least a long shot possibility — especially if he helps carry the lineup on a deep playoff run.

Luis Arraez (29)

Arraez also isn’t expected to start 100+ games at second base, though that’s not because of injury. He’s simply not a good defensive player. The Padres have pushed him mostly to first base over the past couple seasons. He only started 10 games and logged 82 innings at second base this year. It’s unlikely teams would want to live with his glove there on an everyday basis, but he could get part-time work while playing mostly first base as he has done in San Diego.

Readers are surely familiar with Arraez’s unique offensive skillset. He’s the sport’s best contact hitter and one of the few players who can be expected to hit close to or above .300. The throwback style doesn’t include many walks or extra-base hits, which becomes more of an issue as he falls further down the defensive spectrum. Baseball Reference has valued Arraez around one Win Above Replacement in consecutive seasons. His free agency will be a test case for how much teams still care about batting average.

Multi-Positional Types

Willi Castro (29)

Castro was one of the better utility players available at the deadline. The switch-hitter had turned in a .250/.335/.398 line over two and a half seasons in Minnesota. He looked to be on track for a solid multi-year contract as free agency approached. Things have gone sharply downhill since he was traded to the Cubs, however. Castro hit .170/.245/.240 in 34 games with Chicago. That dropped his season batting mark to .226/.313/.366 through 454 trips to the dish.

Adam Frazier (34)

The lefty-hitting Frazier was also traded at the deadline. His numbers picked up after the move. Frazier carried a .255/.318/.336 slash in 78 games with the Pirates. He turned in a league-average .283/.320/.402 line in nearly 200 plate appearances in his second stint with the Royals. He finished the year with a .267/.319/.365 line over 459 trips to the plate. Frazier doesn’t take many walks or hit the ball hard, but he’s a plus contact hitter who still grades as a competent defender.

Luis Rengifo (29)

Rengifo has some similarities to Castro. He’s a switch-hitter, relatively young for a free agent, and has had a couple above-average offensive seasons. He has played all over the field but isn’t an especially good defender anywhere. The bat has been good enough to make up for that in previous years. Rengifo combined for a .273/.323/.431 slash in almost 1300 plate appearances between 2022-24. However, he ended the ’24 campaign on the injured list after undergoing wrist surgery, and he’s now coming off the worst full season of his career in ’25. While he appeared in a personal-high 147 games, he managed just a .238/.287/.335 batting line. He should still command a big league deal based on his track record, but it’ll likely be a one-year contract.

Miguel Rojas (37)

Teams know what they’re getting from Rojas, a rock solid defensive infielder who can play a fine shortstop, second base or third base. He’s coming off a second straight decent offensive season, hitting .262/.318/.397 across 317 plate appearances. Rojas isn’t going to put many balls in the seats, but he makes a ton of contact and has enough juice to pick up 20-25 doubles.

Amed Rosario (30)

The Yankees acquired the righty-hitting Rosario from the Nationals at the deadline — one of two utility pickups (along with José Caballero) to complement lefty-swinging infielders Ryan McMahon and Jazz Chisholm Jr. Rosario hit .303 in 16 games in pinstripes and finished the year with a combined .276/.309/.436 line. He has a lifetime .298/.336/.464 slash versus lefty pitching, which should get him another low-cost big league deal.

Team Options

Ozzie Albies (29)

The Braves control Albies on a $7MM option that comes with a $4MM buyout, making it a $3MM decision. That’s still an easy yes even with Albies coming off a second straight middling year and suffering a season-ending hamate fracture. They’re not going to cut their longtime second baseman to save what amounts to low-end utility player/middle reliever money.

Brandon Lowe (31)

Lowe isn’t going to get to free agency either. The Rays have an $11.5MM club option, a bargain for a middle infielder coming off a 31-homer season. He’ll probably be in trade rumors because this will be his final year under club control and that salary is a bit steep by Rays standards, but Tampa Bay would be able to find a solid trade return even if they’d rather reallocate the money.

Minor League Deal Candidates

Show all

MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

Do not Sell or Share My Personal Information

hide arrows scroll to top