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Poll: Will The Rays Trade Brandon Lowe This Winter?

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It’s no secret that the Rays operate differently from virtually every other team in baseball. They trade from and reshape their roster aggressively at virtually every opportunity in order to keep the team from ever needing to rebuild, and it’s a system that’s worked for quite some time at this point. From Willy Adames to Tyler Glasnow to Randy Arozarena, most players don’t stay in Tampa for long and get traded before they’d actually have a chance to sniff free agency and walk away for nothing.

The conventional wisdom for quite some time has been that as a Rays star nears free agency, a trade is inevitable. That would seemingly spell the end of Brandon Lowe’s time with the team. He can be retained via a $11.5MM club option in 2026 but is set to reach free agency after that. Tampa is coming off an 85-loss season in 2025, a worrying sign for a team that hasn’t lost more games than that since 2007. For most clubs, that would further reinforce the need to trade Lowe and focus on the future. With that being said, the Rays aren’t most clubs. Could they continue to zag where other teams would zig and view a tough 2025 season as all the more reason to keep Lowe in the fold?

The 31-year-old is coming off his second All-Star appearance but had a fairly typical season by his standards. In 134 games this year, Lowe slashed .256/.307/.477 with 31 homers and 19 doubles. That performance was good for a wRC+ of 114, and he’s typically been around 15 to 25% better than league average by that measure throughout his career. Pretty much any team that doesn’t employ Ketel Marte would happily take that sort of offensive production from the keystone, but Lowe’s offense is especially important for Tampa given that he was one of just four above-average hitters on the roster in 2025 alongside Jonathan Aranda, Junior Caminero, and Yandy Diaz.

That left the Rays as a below average offensive club despite banner seasons from both Aranda and Caminero, with a collective wRC+ of 98 as a team. They also ranked in the bottom half of the league in home runs this year, with the aforementioned four players accounting for 115 of the club’s 182 bombs. Tampa’s offense is one in need of addition rather than subtraction, and it’s hard to imagine the Rays getting more production out of the second base position by trading Lowe away.

Perhaps if the Rays had an elite option waiting in the wings to take over, as they did when they traded Paredes to clear the deck for Caminero, trading Lowe would be an easy call. But it’s more difficult to stick to the typical Tampa playbook when internal options to replace him are somewhat lackluster. Christopher Morel hasn’t panned out since being acquired in the Isaac Paredes trade, and while Carson Williams is a top prospect with a chance to impact the club in 2026, the Rays would be better served allowing him to push Taylor Walls back into a bench role than moving Lowe to make room for him at the keystone. Richie Palacios could be an interesting solution, but moving him to second would only further weaken an outfield that already needs reinforcements.

While the arguments for keeping Lowe in the fold are clear, there is reason to at least consider trading him despite those concerns. Lowe is arguably on the downswing at the moment. His .307 on-base percentage this year was the worst of his career. After walking at a reliable 10%+ clip throughout the majority of his career, he’s now seen his walk rate drop precipitously in back-to-back seasons. He went from 11.5% in 2023 to 7.8% and 6.9% in the two most recent campaigns.

This year was his worst defensive season at second base, and an infield with Williams at second base and Walls at shortstop would be a massive improvement defensively. While that combination wouldn’t hit as well as Lowe and Williams, an outfield that generated a paltry 85 wRC+ this year would be relatively easy to improve and make up for the loss of Lowe’s bat.

Looking at the team’s situation more broadly, Aranda and Caminero are under team control through 2029 and 2030 respectively while Williams figures to be controlled through 2031. That’s an exciting core of young talent, but they’ll need reinforcements as players like Lowe, Pete Fairbanks, Diaz, Shane McClanahan, and Drew Rasmussen depart the organization over the next two seasons. Letting Lowe walk for nothing would be a big risk for the team’s long-term competitive future, especially if the team’s new ownership group isn’t interested in escalating a bottom-of-the-barrel payroll.

On the other hand, Lowe’s apparent decline might make potential suitors hesitant to give up significant value for him. Installing Lowe in an outfield corner, where he already has 50 career appearances, would be an alternative way to both mitigate the concerns about his defensive ability on the infield while also getting more offensive production from the outfield next year. However, Lowe hasn’t played on the grass since 2022.

The Rays also don’t find themselves hurting for payroll flexibility this offseason as much as they do most years after offloading Ha-Seong Kim, Danny Jansen, and Zack Littell from their books during the season. They could even still recoup value for Lowe at the deadline if they find themselves in position to sell for the third year in a row.

How do MLBTR readers think the Rays will handle Lowe this offseason? Will he still be with the team come Opening Day, or will they trade him before then? Have your say in the poll below:

Poll: Are The Angels More Likely To Trade Taylor Ward Or Jo Adell?

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After an all-too familiar losing season, even with Mike Trout playing more than he has in years, the Angels are headed into yet another offseason where they’ll be looking to pull the franchise out of its rut and finally get back into contention. This year, the Angels have highlighted two areas they hope to improve headed into 2026: center field and third base. The hot corner should be fairly straightforward to upgrade, seeing as Yoan Moncada’s impending free agency leaves no clear incumbent at the position outside of injured veteran Anthony Rendon, whose future is unclear at this point. Center field, however, will be more complicated.

That’s because the Angels already have four outfielders for the 2026 season: Trout, Jorge Soler, Jo Adell, and Taylor Ward. Trout moved off center field this past season in hopes of staying healthier. While he spent much of these season in a DH-only role, the club has indicated that they hope to use him in right field on a regular basis next year. That would allow Soler to reclaim his job as the club’s regular DH, which would be good news given that playing the outfield this year in deference to Trout created some injury issues for Soler throughout the season.

With Trout and Soler handling right field and DH, that leaves Adell and Ward. Adell handled center in Trout’s place this year, and the former top prospect actually had a career year as he slugged 37 homers and posted a wRC+ of 112. He graded out disastrously with the glove in center field, however, and is clearly better suited for corner outfield duty. That’s why the Angels would like to bring in a center fielder, but Ward had an excellent season in his own right as the club’s left fielder with 36 home runs and a wRC+ of 117. If the Halos are going to add a center fielder, they’ll need to solve that logjam.

Who would be better for the club to part ways with, between Ward and Adell? There’s certainly arguments on both sides of the conversation. Ward has been far more consistent throughout his career, with five straight above average seasons by wRC+ and 106 home runs in 610 games during that time. It would be tough for the club to compete next year if they subtract that sort of reliable production from a team that was already bottom-five in baseball this year by wRC+. With that said, Ward has just one year left in arbitration before he reaches free agency and is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $13.7MM salary in 2026. Trading Ward would have minimal impact on the club beyond 2026 and could actually open up some space in the budget to more aggressively pursue additions to other parts of the roster.

By contrast, there’s a real chance that Adell’s season was a simple flash in the pan. This was his first season of even league average production since breaking into the majors in 2020, after all. It’s entirely possible that trading Adell could be something that doesn’t come back to bite the Angels at all, and they would simply be selling (relatively) high on their former top prospect before he regresses back to the unproductive form he’s shown in prior seasons. On the other hand, however, the upside of keeping Adell is considerable. He’s still just 26 years old and remains under team control for both the 2026 and ’27 seasons while projecting for a far less onerous $5.5MM salary in next season. If Adell’s breakout this season was sustainable, trading him would hurt the Halos both in the present and in the future.

Of course, it’s possible that neither one winds up traded. The Angels could simply forgo their preferred addition of a true center fielder and install Adell at the position again next year, eschewing defense and hoping that an offseason of work on his fielding could yield better results. Another way to keep both Adell and Ward in the lineup would be trying to find a taker on Soler. If they were to move him, that would allow Ward to remain in left while Trout and Adell share right field and DH in a timeshare dictated by Trout’s health. That seems like an ideal scenario, but it’s unfortunately little more than a pipe dream. Soler is owed $13MM in 2026 and posted an 88 wRC+ with negative WAR last year, so it seems unlikely the Angels would be able to move him without eating the vast majority of his salary. The club is surely better off hoping for a rebound from Soler and trading one of Ward or Adell for actual value.

How do MLBTR readers think the Halos will approach their outfield conundrum this winter? When the team arrives at Spring Training, will Ward or Adell be penciled in as the club’s starting left fielder? Have your say in the poll below:

Looking For A Match In A Brendan Donovan Trade

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With the Cardinals now embarking on a full rebuild period, it might be surprising if Brendan Donovan is still on the St. Louis roster by Opening Day.  With two years of arbitration control remaining over Donovan, the Cards don’t necessarily have to move him this winter, as they could wait until the trade deadline or even next offseason if the offers just aren’t up to par over the next four months.  But, it’s hard to imagine that Cardinals president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom will be short on intriguing trade offers for Donovan considering how many boxes the former All-Star checks off for potential suitors.

Age?  Donovan turns 29 in January.  Salary?  Donovan is projected to earn $5.4MM in his second trip through the arbitration process, so his total cost over his two remaining arb years should fall within the $14MM-$15MM range at most.  Offense?  Donovan has a career 119 wRC+ from his .282/.361/.411 slash line and 40 home runs, and he has been one of the game’s most difficult players to strike out during his four MLB seasons.  Defense?  He won the NL Gold Glove for utility players in 2022, and Donovan has been at least serviceable at multiple positions (all four infield spots and the two corner outfield spots) while playing primarily at second base and left field.

There are a couple of downsides to acknowledge, such as Donovan’s career splits (.812 OPS against right-handed pitching, .651 OPS against left-handed pitching).  Some teams may view the left-handed hitting Donovan primarily as a strong-side platoon player more than a true everyday player.  Even the Cardinals limited his exposure to southpaws, both as a function of these splits and because the Cards also wanted to get some playing time to their right-handed bats.

Donovan’s injury history includes a UCL brace procedure that cost him the last two months of the 2023 season and a sports hernia surgery just from earlier this month, as Donovan spent some time on the injured list this season with some groin problems.  While sports hernia procedures are usually pretty straight-forward and Donovan is expected to be fine for the start of Spring Training, rival clubs might be more inclined to wait until a bit later into the offseason (or at least past the Winter Meetings) just to ensure that Donovan is fully ready to go.  This means that some teams might acquire other players in the interim that will take them out of the market for Donovan’s services.

Rebuilding teams like the White Sox, Rockies, Nationals, and Twins can be reasonably ruled out, as none have any pressing reason to try and win the bidding war for Donovan’s services.  Beyond this group, just about every other team in baseball is at least a somewhat plausible fit for Donovan, so let’s break this down team by team…

If Only They Were In Another Division…

Since the start of the 2004 season, St. Louis has made six total trades with the Brewers, Reds, Pirates, and Cubs.  Three of those deals were low-level player-for-cash transactions.  None of these trades happened on Bloom’s watch, and he’s not going to hang up the phone if any of these NL Central teams made a very compelling offer.  But, history suggests that Donovan won’t be shipped to one of the Cardinals’ division opponents, even though he’d fit in with any of this quartet.  The Pirates and Reds in particular have big offensive needs and young pitching on offer, Donovan would nicely bolster Milwaukee’s infield picture, and even the Cubs could deploy Donovan at third base or in the outfield.

Less Likely Suitors

Some readers may be surprised to see the Marlins outside of the list of rebuilding teams, but Miami isn’t quite in that category following a 79-win season.  It’s still hard to see the Fish making a bolder move like a Donovan trade even if they are nearing the end of their capital-R Rebuild period, since the Marlins probably still aren’t at the stage where they’d trade away prospects for more experienced talent.

The Red Sox, Orioles, Tigers, and Mets all have some questions to answer with their position-player mix, but these teams are already pretty heavy on left-handed hitters.  Other trades could potentially alter the equation, but chances are these four teams will seek out right-handed bats before looking to add another prominent lefty-swinger.  The Diamondbacks are mostly in the same boat, though there’s a sliver of a chance Donovan could be acquired to play third base, if Arizona wanted to give Jordan Lawlar more seasoning or if Lawlar was perhaps himself dealt to address other needs (i.e. pitching).

The Astros are badly in need of left-handed hitters and had interest in Donovan at this past trade deadline, but that was before Houston further crowded its lineup picture by reuniting with Carlos Correa.  Between Correa, Jeremy Pena, Jose Altuve, Isaac Paredes, Christian Walker, Cam Smith in right field, Yordan Alvarez as the primary DH, there isn’t really anywhere for Donovan to get regular at-bats, unless the Astros perhaps dealt Paredes or Walker to make room.

Maybe, After Another Trade Is Made?

Nick Allen is a superb defender who can’t hit, so the Braves are another team that could give Donovan a longer look at shortstop.  Right field is also a plausible part-time position for Donovan in Atlanta, as he can spell Ronald Acuna Jr. once in a while when Acuna gets a DH day.  The most intriguing position would be second base and Donovan is an upgrade over Ozzie Albies, yet the Braves would first have to trade Albies to clear out the keystone.  Some of the teams interested in Donovan would also probably have interest in Albies, but it would be harder for the Braves to pull off the two-step of first moving Albies and then convincing the Cardinals to send Donovan their way before any other suitors pounced.

The Rays are in a bit of a similar situation with Brandon Lowe, another trade candidate owed $11.5MM in his final year of team control.  Tampa Bay would probably prefer to first deal Lowe to open up second base as Donovan’s primary spot, but the Rays could also use Donovan at shortstop and in the outfield (or even at first base if Yandy Diaz is traded).

The Guardians’ biggest priority this winter should be finding hitting of any kind, and Donovan is also the kind of versatile contact hitter that the Guards love.  The issue is that the Guards already have a lot of left-handed or switch-hitters.  Cleveland could attempt multiple trades by dealing from its left-handed or infield depth for a righty hitter and then shooting for Donovan, but just obtaining a couple of right-handed bats full stop seems like a smoother fit.

Donovan’s Past Trade Suitors

Since we’ve mentioned Houston’s past interest in Donovan, let’s devote this space to five other teams who have been linked to the All-Star over the years.  Obviously many more teams than just this group have checked in with the Cardinals about Donovan, but these are the teams who have been specifically named as interested parties.

The Yankees have been linked to Donovan multiple times, as recently as this past trade deadline and as far back as the 2023-24 offseason.  This track record of interest means that New York can’t be ruled out of Donovan’s market, yet some other moves have left the Yankees pretty heavy on left-handed hitting infielders — Ryan McMahon, Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Ben Rice all swing from the left side.  That said, New York could use Donovan in left field if Jasson Dominguez isn’t viewed as ready for regular time, or Donovan could get some work at shortstop while Anthony Volpe recovers from shoulder surgery.  Of all the positions Donovan has played at the MLB level, he has the least time at shortstop, with just 106 innings logged.

The Phillies and Dodgers were both reportedly interested in Donovan prior to this summer’s trade deadline.  Donovan could slot in for Philadelphia at third base if Alec Bohm is moved or in either corner outfield spot, as some room will become open in the Phils’ outfield once Nick Castellanos is gone.  Left field is the most logical space for Donovan in the Dodgers’ loaded lineup, but L.A. will probably be eager to bounce Donovan around to multiple positions for platoon or timeshare purposes.

The Blue Jays and Athletics each had some talks with the Cardinals about Donovan as far back at the 2022-23 offseason, when Donovan was just coming off his third-place finish in NL Rookie of the Year voting.  Fast forward to this winter and each team still has a need.  Toronto can slot Donovan into its multi-player platoon system at second base, third base, and the corner outfield spots.  If Bo Bichette left in free agency, Donovan would likely become the Jays’ primary second baseman, with Andres Gimenez shifting over to take on the shortstop role.

The A’s have big lineup holes at second and third base, plus Donovan’s salary is a fit within the club’s limited budget.  Perhaps the question here is whether or not the A’s would make this kind of “win-now” trade before the team moves to Las Vegas, and for a player like Donovan whose arbitration control doesn’t extend beyond the Athletics’ time in Sacramento.

The Cleanest Fits

The Angels had the highest team strikeout rate in baseball in 2025, were one of the league’s worst-hitting teams in general, their lineup is overloaded with right-handed hitters, and there are no clear candidates for either second or third base.  All things considered, Donovan might fit better on the Angels than on any other club, though that probably isn’t surprising given how the Halos are struggling in so many departments.  Unfortunately, the farm system is another of those thin departments, so Los Angeles will be hard-pressed to outbid other teams if it comes down to a prospect bidding war.

The Giants could make Donovan their new starting second baseman, while still using Casey Schmitt as a right-handed complement to shield Donovan against some southpaws.  Heliot Ramos is another right-handed bat who is still San Francisco’s top choice in left field, but Donovan could easily get some time in both left and in the Giants’ wide-open right-field vacancy.

Highly-touted prospects Cole Young and Colt Emerson may be the future of the Mariners infield, and both are left-handed hitters like Donovan.  However, a Seattle team in win-now mode might prefer to add Donovan to address its second base and third base needs in the present.  Donovan’s two remaining arb years leaves the door open for Young and Emerson as longer-term options, and Donovan’s ability to play both infield spots would allow the Mariners to also give Young, Emerson (who has yet to make his MLB debut) or Ben Williamson some at-bats at the keystone or the hot corner.

With Luis Arraez entering free agency, the Padres will be looking for a new first baseman, or they could move Jake Cronenworth to from second base to first base.  A Donovan trade would line up with that latter scenario, and while the Padres might not use Donovan’s versatility as much as other teams, he could still be shifted around the diamond when any of Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., or (the likely to be retained) Ramon Laureano gets an off-day or a DH day.

The Rangers could use more lefty balance in the lineup, will be working on more of a limited budget this offseason, and will be focusing on better situational hitting and contact hitting, so Donovan is a strong fit on all counts.  Marcus Semien still has second base spoken for in Arlington, but Donovan can be used at third base (if Josh Jung is traded) or in the outfield (Adolis Garcia is expected to be traded or non-tendered).

Since mentioned the Cardinals’ trade histories with their NL Central rivals earlier, it’s worth noting that the Cards also don’t often swing deals with the Royals, their fellow Missouri team.  If geography isn’t a huge obstacle, Donovan would be a great help to a Royals club in dire need of outfielders, and second base could also be a need if Kansas City decided to move on from Jonathan India and/or Michael Massey.

The Case For The Reds To Sign A Big Bat

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The Reds’ immediate exit from the playoffs makes it easy to forget the successes of the regular season. Cincinnati snapped a four-year postseason drought in manager Terry Francona’s first season. They won 83 games for just the second time since 2013. This team has something to build on heading into 2026, and now is the time to make a splash in free agency.

As MLBTR’s Anthony Franco explored in Cincinnati’s Offseason Outlook for Front Office subscribers, improving the offense will be key this offseason. The club did not have the depth or high-end talent to compete with the best of the National League. Cincinnati could make smaller moves around the margins, as they’ve done in recent seasons, but why not take a bigger swing?

Financially, the team is in a decent spot. FanGraphs’ RosterResource tool has the Reds with an estimated payroll of around $94MM heading into next season. They were close to $120MM this past season, and have been above $130MM in each season from 2020 to 2022. The biggest current commitment for 2026 is the $13MM owed to Jeimer Candelario. While it stings to be shelling out that amount to a player no longer in the organization, Candelario is the only one on the books for eight figures right now, assuming the team declines Austin Hays’ $12MM mutual option. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz has Brady Singer projected to earn $11.9MM in arbitration, but the righty will likely be the only significant commitment coming from the arbitration process.

Cincinnati’s largest free agent contract by total value is a tie between Nick Castellanos and Mike Moustakas at $64MM over four years in 2020, as shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker. The club will have to go well beyond a $16MM average annual value to entice Kyle Schwarber or Pete Alonso, but maybe combining the outlay on Castellanos and Moustakas would be enough to make an interesting offer.

Part of the reason for the offense being the offseason focus is that the pitching staff was excellent in 2025. Hunter Greene looked like an ace when healthy. Andrew Abbott delivered a breakout season. Singer and Nick Lodolo provided stable innings. Chase Burns posted electrifying strikeout numbers upon getting called up. Cincinnati ranked ninth in starting pitcher ERA. Only six other starting staffs had more strikeouts.

The success on the mound is made more impressive by Cincinnati’s home venue. Great American Ball Park ranks third in StatCast’s Park Factor metric. It’s the second-highest rated park for home runs. The strides made by the starting pitching unit make the shortcomings of the offense harder to swallow, especially given the favorable hitting environment.

Though they snuck into the playoffs after chasing down the Mets, the Reds finished third in the NL Central. They haven’t been better than third in the division since winning it in 2012. This might be the perfect time to buck that trend.

Pittsburgh and St. Louis are in rebuilding mode, making this a three-horse race heading into next season. Milwaukee and Chicago both won 90+ games in 2025, but could be facing significant losses. Kyle Tucker is a free agent. He would fit the bill as a significant splash for Cincinnati, though he’s likely out of their price range. The more likely impact is removing a key contributor from the middle of the Cubs’ lineup. Speaking of important losses, Milwaukee could be considering a Freddy Peralta trade. It would be a massive loss for a rotation without much proven depth and some health questions.

The Brewers and Cubs are still likely the favorites to win the NL Central next season, but the Reds can close the gap. Their finances make a big move possible, and their pitching staff deserves better support. Schwarber said it would be “cool” to suit up for his hometown team. The Reds might as well try to make that happen.

Previewing The 2025-26 Free Agent Class: Left-Handed Relief

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All but two teams have already turned their attention toward the offseason. Identifying free agent targets is a big part of that prep work, so it’s worth taking a look at the players who’ll be available at each position.

The 2025-26 class of left-handed relievers is thin on high-leverage arms but has plenty of solid, serviceable veterans — plus a few wild cards who could pursue a big league return after pitching overseas. Ages listed are for the 2026 season.

Previous entries in this series: catcher, first base, second base, third base, shortstop, center field, corner outfield, designated hitter, starting pitching, right-handed relief

Veteran Setup Arms

Jalen Beeks (32)

Beeks took a minor league deal with the Astros last offseason but opted out late in spring and signed a major league contract with the D-backs. It panned out well. He pitched 57 1/3 innings, logged 14 holds and a save, and fanned 20.3% of his opponents against an 8.7% walk rate — all en route to a 3.77 ERA. Beeks sits 94.4 mph with his four-seamer, posted an above-average swinging-strike rate in 2025, and has pitched primarily in medium to high-leverage spots over the past four years. He won’t break the bank but should get a modest one-year deal.

Danny Coulombe (36)

Coulombe, who just turned 36 yesterday, was terrific in 31 innings with the Twins (1.16 ERA, 25.4 K%, 7.4 BB%) but struggled in 12 innings after being traded to the Rangers (5.25 ERA, 22.2 K%, 16.7 BB%). An IL trip due to shoulder fatigue didn’t help his time with the Rangers, and Coulombe also had a three-week IL stint due to a forearm strain with Minnesota in May. Coulombe’s average four-seamer and sinker barely crack 90 mph, but he has a 2.60 ERA with strong strikeout and walk rates in 173 1/3 innings dating back to 2020. He made $3MM this year, and another affordable one-year deal seems likely.

Caleb Ferguson (29)

Ferguson’s one-year, $3MM deal proved to be a sound investment for the frugal Pirates, who flipped him to the Mariners at the deadline after a solid four-month run. Ferguson was effective with both clubs, pitching to a combined 3.58 ERA. His 18.9% strikeout rate was below average, but Ferguson’s 8.1% walk rate was solid and no reliever in baseball limits hard contact as well as he does. His 27.7% opponents’ hard-hit rate was the best in baseball, and he sat in the 99th percentile in average exit velocity and barrel rate. Ferguson doesn’t have plus command or generate whiffs at a plus rate, but he’s young, durable and relatively consistent. He could be a candidate for a multi-year deal with a low average annual value.

Hoby Milner (35)

Milner topped 64 innings for a fourth straight season, tossing 70 1/3 innings with a 3.84 ERA for the Rangers. He’s a soft-tossing lefty with a below-average strikeout rate, good command and a plus ground-ball rate. He’s worked a lot of middle relief in the past, but the Rangers used him as one of their go-to setup options for much of the ’25 season and he logged a career-high 18 holds (topping his previous best of 17 with the ’23 Brewers). Milner signed a one-year, $2.5MM deal with Texas last winter and should land in that general vicinity again.

Drew Pomeranz (37)

Welcome back, Drew Pomeranz. The 36-year-old lefty signed a minor league deal with the Mariners and was flipped to the Cubs for cash in April. With Chicago, he made his first big league appearance since 2021 — but it was far more than a quick cameo. The former No. 5 overall draft pick dominated with a 2.17 ERA, 28.1% strikeout rate and 7.4% walk rate in 49 2/3 frames. Pomeranz was one of Craig Counsell’s most trusted relief arms in the playoffs. He’ll be 37 in November, so he’s not likely to snag a multi-year deal, but a big league contract should be waiting for Pomeranz this winter.

Taylor Rogers (35)

Though his All-Star days are behind him, Rogers has been a solid middle reliever for three years running. His teams haven’t used him regularly in high-leverage spots, but he has a 3.16 ERA, 26.4% strikeout rate and 10.2% walk rate since 2023. Rogers’ 92.7 mph average sinker is down a full three miles from its 2021 peak, but his results and track record should get him a big league contract.

Gregory Soto (31)

Soto might have the most earning power among this winter’s crop of lefties due to both his age and his power repertoire. He’s one of the game’s hardest-throwing lefties but doesn’t generate the whiffs one would expect despite that fact. Soto is serviceable every year but has never broken through despite plus velo and a plus swinging-strike rate. Soto has had command troubles in the past but has posted nice walk rates in two of the past three seasons. A two-year deal at market value setup money seems possible.

Caleb Thielbar (39)

Thielbar’s first season with any team other than his hometown Twins was a success. He pitched 58 innings of 2.64 ERA ball for the Cubs and tied Brad Keller for the team lead with 25 holds. Thielbar’s 2024 season was ugly, but he’s posted an ERA of 3.49 or better every other year since 2020. He has average velocity, good command and an above-average strikeout rate, but he’ll be 39 in January, so a one-year deal is the strong likelihood.

Justin Wilson (38)

Wilson missed nearly all of 2022-23 due to Tommy John surgery, struggled with the Reds in 2024, and bounced all the way back in Boston this year. The Red Sox got him on a one-year, $2.25MM deal last winter, and Wilson responded with 48 1/3 innings, a 3.35 earned run average, a 27.5% strikeout rate, a 9.7% walk rate and 18 holds. He should get another one-year deal this winter, probably with nice little bump in salary.

Swingmen/Multi-Inning Arms

Sean Newcomb (33)

“Sean Newcomb, multi-year deal candidate” probably wasn’t on too many bingo cards back in March, but the 2025 season was excellent for the former top prospect and starter-turned-reliever. Newcomb tossed 92 1/3 innings with a 2.73 ERA for the Red Sox and A’s. He started five games and frequently worked multiple innings — sometimes as a bulk reliever after an opener. The 2014 first-rounder punched out 23.3% of his opponents versus a 7.9% walk rate — both slightly better than average. Newcomb has easily earned himself a major league deal, and a modest two-year deal seems plausible.

Ryan Yarbrough (34)

Yarbrough’s 2025 season was par for the course by his standards: eight starts, 11 relief outings, a mid-4.00s ERA, below-average strikeout rate and solid command. That’s what Yarbrough brings to the table most years, and while it’s not a skill set that’s going to get him paid all that highly, it keeps him on big league rosters as a sixth starter/long man in the bullpen on a yearly basis. Yarbrough averages 87-88 mph but induces heaps of weak contact.

Possible NPB Returnees

Foster Griffin (30)

Griffin is a former first-round pick of the Royals who made seven MLB appearances between 2020-22. He has spent the past three seasons in Japan, combining for a 2.57 ERA across 315 2/3 innings. Griffin missed time this past season with what MLBTR has learned was a bone bruise in his lower half. He’s expected to have a normal offseason and intends to pursue an MLB return. Griffin didn’t have overpowering stuff during his initial run in affiliated ball, but he’s coming off a 1.62 ERA while striking out a quarter of opponents. He could command a big league deal to compete for a back-of-the-rotation spot.

Anthony Kay (31)

A former first-round pick, Kay has spent the past two seasons with the Yokohama DeNA BayStars in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. He’s worked out of their rotation, logging a 3.42 ERA in ’24 and a 1.74 mark in ’25. Kay isn’t missing bats at a particularly high level (20.8 K%), but he had good command and a nice ground-ball rate overseas. Big league scouts have been watching him, and while he might get the chance to start somewhere, other clubs will probably be interested in bringing him aboard in a swingman capacity. Either way, he’s at least a candidate for a major league deal.

Options/Opt-Outs

An 80-game PED suspension cast a cloud over Alvarado’s 2025 season, but the hard-throwing southpaw has been one of the Phillies’ best relievers for several years. Dating back to 2022, Alvarado touts a 3.25 ERA and has fanned 31.7% of his opponents while averaging 98.7 mph on his sinker and 93.1 mph on his cutter. He’d easily top that net $8.5MM in free agency, so the Phils should pick this up.

  • Tim Hill (36) – $3MM club option with a $350K buyout

Hill, 36 in February, is a ground-ball specialist who misses almost no bats but rarely walks opponents. He’s logged a 2.68 ERA and kept about two-thirds of the batted balls against him on the ground in 111 innings since joining the Yankees in 2024. This feels like a nice value for the Yankees, even with their luxury tax status.

Minter underwent lat surgery back in May after pitching only 11 innings. The recovery timetable for him is still a bit murky, but he seems likely to pick up that $11MM option, return to the Mets and aim for better health next year.

  • Wandy Peralta (34) – $4.45MM player option (contract also contains $4.45MM player option for 2027)

Peralta posted a 3.14 ERA in a career-high 71 2/3 innings with a career-best 59.7% ground-ball rate in 2025. His 20.1% strikeout rate and 9.6% walk rate were worse than average. Peralta still averages better than 95 mph on his sinker, but he’ll be 35 in July and was used largely in low-leverage spots. It’s likelier than not that he picks up his player option.

  • Brooks Raley (38) – $4.75MM club option with a $750K buyout

Raley returned from Tommy John surgery to toss 25 2/3 innings with a 2.45 ERA, a 25.3% strikeout rate and a 6.1% walk rate. His sinker’s average velocity had dipped to 88-89 mph in 2023-24, but he was back up to 90.7 mph this year, right in line with his 2021-22 levels in Houston and Tampa Bay. This option is likely to be picked up.

  • Brent Suter (36) – $3MM club option with a $250K buyout

Suter posted a career-high 4.52 ERA in 67 2/3 innings this season, snapping a streak of six straight years with a sub-4.00 earned run average. He’s a soft tosser who specializes in weak contact over missing bats. This will probably get bought out, but Suter is a Cincinnati native who’s clearly enjoyed pitching for his hometown club, so perhaps he’d be amenable to returning on a smaller pact.

Depth Arms

Extension Candidate: Pete Crow-Armstrong

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Few players captured more attention throughout the 2025 season than Pete Crow-Armstrong. The young center fielder seemed to launch himself into superstardom in the first half this year, with 20 doubles, 21 homers, and 25 steals through the end of June. That worked out to a .263/.299/.537 slash line, good for a 128 wRC+ with elite defense in center field that made him an early rival for Shohei Ohtani in this year’s MVP race. He followed up that brilliant performance with a far less exciting second half, as he slashed just .228/.274/.412 (86 wRC+) with 17 doubles, ten home runs, and ten steals from July 1 onward.

Crow-Armstrong’s second-half slump was enough to knock him far out of the MVP conversation, but his season-long numbers remain impressive. In 157 games, the 23-year-old hit .247/.287/.481 (109 wRC+) with 35 steals in 43 attempts and an MLB-best +24 Outs Above Average for his work in center field. All of that combined to be worth 6.0 bWAR and 5.4 fWAR, good for 11th and 15th respectively among qualified hitters this year. A five- or six-win season from a 23-year-old who entered the year with less than 150 games of big league experience is hard to view as anything other than an exciting success, and that’s how Jed Hoyer characterized it in his end-of-season press conference shortly after the Cubs’ season came to a close in Game 5 of the NLDS.

“In totality, he had a great year,” Hoyer said of Crow-Armstrong, as relayed by Patrick Mooney of The Athletic. Hoyer went on to describe Crow-Armstrong as “the best defensive player in baseball” and noted that “when he’s hitting, he’s a superstar.”

All of that rings true based on his performance this season, and as the Cubs head into an offseason where Hoyer acknowledged they hope to have extension conversations with several players, Mooney writes that locking up the team’s star center fielder “figures to be the top priority.”

It won’t be the first time the Cubs and Crow-Armstrong talk about extending his stay in Chicago beyond his years of team control. The sides discussed an extension towards the beginning of the year, before his standout first half, and Crow-Armstrong passed on a deal that reportedly would’ve maxed out around $75MM with a guarantee in the $60MM-$70MM range. Crow-Armstrong, of course, rejected that offer, and while Hoyer expressed an openness to discussing an extension with the youngster’s camp during the season no further progress on the topic was reported throughout the year. Perhaps that’s not surprising, given the unusual year Crow-Armstrong just had.

If the Cubs do intend to reopen extension talks with their budding star, what could a sensible contract look like? After entering 2025 just barely short of a full year of MLB service time, Crow-Armstrong currently remains under control through the end of the 2030 season. At that point, he figures to be ticketed for free agency ahead of his age-29 campaign. A look at MLBTR’s Contract Tracker offers a wide range of comparable players in recent years. Players like Ke’Bryan Hayes, Lawrence Butler, and Ezequiel Tovar had less than two years of MLB service when they signed their deals, like Crow-Armstrong. They all landed extensions in the $60MM to $70MM range that the Cubs reportedly offered prior to this season, but those deals were blown out of the water by the $134.2MM guarantee Jackson Merrill landed in his eight-year extension with the Padres back in April.

Merrill is a year younger than Crow-Armstrong, meaning he signed his deal at the start of his age-22 season while Crow-Armstrong would be signing ahead of his age-24 season this offseason. Both players had five seasons left under club control before free agency, however, and were coming off similarly elite platform seasons; Merril’s 130 wRC+ outshone Crow-Armstrong, but his lesser defense and baserunning left him with a roughly comparable 5.3 fWAR. They also play the same position, making Merrill’s recent deal a logical point of reference for Crow-Armstrong overall.

It’s the second-highest guarantee an outfielder with less than two seasons of MLB service time has received in MLB history, behind the $210MM guarantee the Mariners offered Julio Rodriguez that can max out at $470MM over 17 years if all incentives are reached and options are exercised. Given that Rodriguez was in the midst of posting a 148 wRC+ with 5.7 fWAR and 6.2 bWAR in just 132 games as a 21-year-old rookie when he signed his extension, it’s safe to expect that a deal for Crow-Armstrong would come in closer to Merrill’s contract.

A contract similar to the one signed by Merrill could make some sense, and an eight-year, $140MM contract would beat Merrill’s contract in terms of both guarantee and average annual value. However, the Cubs may not be interested in such a large guarantee for only three additional seasons of team control, while Crow-Armstrong may not want to head into free agency at the tail end of his physical prime as a player who derives as much value from speed and defense.

Then, perhaps, the sides could get together on a longer contract that would buy out more free agent years. An 11-year deal that runs through the 2036 season would keep Crow-Armstrong in town for the rest of his prime and buy out six free agent years. An 11-year, $187MM guarantee would narrowly eclipse Merrill by both guarantee and AAV, while also narrowly beating out the eight-year, $184MM contract the Cubs gave Jason Heyward during the 2015-16 offseason for the largest deal in franchise history.

It would be a risky investment given Crow-Armstrong’s lackluster plate discipline, which left him with the third-highest swinging-strike rate in the majors this year. Given that risk and the fact that Crow-Armstrong is not set to even reach arbitration until next winter, it would be understandable if the Cubs decided to wait and see how the 2026 season played out before committing that sort of money to their center fielder.

On the other hand, the upside in Crow-Armstrong’s profile is obvious and Chicago’s reluctance to spend at the top of the market on free agents in recent years could mean that waiting another year could put Crow-Armstrong out of Chicago’s price range entirely. Rolling the dice on an extension for Crow-Armstrong could be the team’s best bet of securing a long-term, star-caliber talent. Meanwhile, it would be understandable if Crow-Armstrong was motivated to lock in long-term financial security ahead of a 2026-27 offseason where a contentious round of collective bargaining over the sport’s economic future is widely expected.

What Can The Reds Expect From Matt McLain In 2026?

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It was a good season for the Reds in 2025, on balance. Hunter Greene replicated his excellent 2024 and cemented himself as one of the game’s top young starters, Andrew Abbott enjoyed a career-year that saw him make his first trip to the All-Star game, and despite winning just 83 games the club managed to squeak into the postseason for the first time in a full season since 2013.

With all that being said, however, there are clear flaws with the team as presently constructed and it’s not at all hard to see where the team needs to improve if they hope to return to the playoffs next year for another bite at the apple. The Cincinnati offense disappointed across the board this season, with even star shortstop Elly De La Cruz hitting 11 fewer extra-base hits and swiping 30 fewer bases than last year despite similar on-base numbers.

In a season where virtually every piece of the club’s offensive nucleus fell short of expectations, it seems a bit unfair to single out any one player. Even so, the struggles second baseman Matt McLain faced stand out among the crowd. McLain was one of the most exciting young players in baseball as recently as 2023, when his sensational 89-game rookie season earned him a fifth-place finish in NL Rookie of the Year voting that year. Unfortunately, he missed the entire 2024 season due to injuries and in some regards looked like a shell of his former self this season.

That’s not to say he regressed across the board. McLain’s 28.9% strikeout rate this season was a near perfect match for the 28.5% clip he struck out at back in 2023. His 9.5% walk rate was actually a substantial improvement over the 7.7% rate he posted in his rookie campaign. His defense was also phenomenal as he finished the year with +6 Fielding Run Value, a figure bested by just eight qualified middle infielders in baseball this year. That’s a substantial step up from the +1 FRV McLain offered in his rookie campaign.

Those are all positive (or, in the case of McLain’s strikeout rate, at least neutral) signs relative to 2023. It’s also where the good times come to an end, however. McLain’s power was down substantially by just about every metric this past year. After slugging 16 homers in 89 games as a rookie, he hit 15 across 147 games this year. His doubles also dropped from 23 to 18, while his triples actually dropped from four all the way down to zero. Hitting ten fewer extra-base hits in 174 more plate appearances is a drop in power output that’s nothing short of alarming, and McLain’s paltry .124 ISO put him in the bottom 20 among qualified hitters this year. His barrel rate dropped more than three points from 2023, and his hard-hit rate has dropped nearly two.

That falls short of even some notoriously contact-oriented hitters like Jung Hoo Lee and Jacob Wilson. While those players (not to mention hitters with even less power like Luis Arraez and Nico Hoerner) get away with that minimal power output thanks to elite bat-to-ball skills, but McLain’s lack of improvement in the strikeout department leaves him unable to emulate that brand of hitting. Barring a massive drop in strikeout rate next year, McLain will need to recapture some of that power if he’s going to improve over this year’s paltry 77 wRC+, much less approach the 129 wRC+ he posted in his rookie season.

Just how feasible is that? It’s hard to believe that he’ll get back to that level he flashed in 2023 entirely, because that was buoyed in no small part by a .385 BABIP. A BABIP of .350 is typically viewed as around the upper limit of the sustainable year-to-year range, and McLain’s .292 BABIP this year falls firmly into that more sustainable range. It’s possible it ticks back up in the future, but reversing that more than 90-point drop appears to be little more than a pipe dream. Getting back above league average, however, seems to be a far more reasonable ask, and one that could turn McLain into a key piece of Cincinnati’s core once again.

He’ll need to adjust his approach a bit if he’s going to get there. McLain’s hard-hit rate was only marginally lower than his rookie season in 2025, but he lost more than a quarter of his barrels on a rate basis this season. Some of that can surely be attributed to a stark drop in line drives. While McLain’s grounder rate stayed stagnant at 38.7% between this year and 2023, his line drive rate dropped from a 24.2% clip as a rookie to just 17.2% this year. To put those numbers in context, his line drive rate this year ranked 132nd among 145 qualified hitters, while his 2023 rate would’ve ranked eighth this year among that same group.

Getting back to a more line drive oriented approach could help McLain both recoup some of those lost extra-base hits, and it would also help with his steeply declining BABIP. McLain hit 44.2% of his batted balls in the air this year, a top-30 clip in the majors. That works well for hitters like Aaron Judge and Kyle Schwarber who have the power to slug 40+ homers on an annual basis, but it’s a much less effective recipe for success for someone with McLain’s profile. He pulled the ball less often than all but 23 of the league’s qualified hitters this year, leaving him with a lot of fly outs and pop ups but little production to show for it.

If McLain can lower his launch angle a bit next year, he could get back to hitting the sweet spot more often than he did this year. That was the secret ingredient that made McLain so effective in 2023, as his 39.6% sweet spot rate ranked in the 94th percentile among all MLB hitters. That dropped to just 34.0% this year, which placed him in the 43rd percentile. The good news for McLain and the Reds is that a change in approach is far easier to correct than a step back in underlying skills, and McLain’s discipline, defense, speed and bat speed all seem to be either right where they were in his rookie year or even better. That makes it relatively easy to imagine him re-emerging as a core piece of a Reds lineup that will need to generate a lot more offense this year if they want to build on their cameo in the playoffs this season.

Kansas City’s Impressive Rotation Stockpile Is Ripe For A Trade

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After making it to Game 4 of the ALDS last year on the back of a solid 86-win campaign, the Royals took a step back this year with an 82-80 record that left them five games back of an AL Wild Card spot when all was said and done. It was a disappointing season, though Kansas City really performed rather admirably considering that they got just 13 starts out of staff ace Cole Ragans while Kris Bubic found himself sidelined for the second half by an injury of his own. While health in the rotation helped to sink the team this year, it’s possible that the team’s deep arsenal of starters could help them reinvent the team on the trade market as they look ahead to 2026.

Given that Kansas City’s rotation being unable to stay healthy proved to be the difference between a return to the playoffs this year and sitting at home this October, it might sound like blasphemy to suggest trading from that same rotation should be on the table for the Royals this winter. The reality of the club’s situation, however, is that they would have been able to get by with their contributions from the rotation had their offense put up more of a fight. The Kansas City offense posted a 93 wRC+ this year, good for just 22nd in the majors as they slashed just .247/.309/.397 as a team.

That’s a tough slash line to put together a contender with as it is, but the need for improvement is highlighted by the success of the team’s stars. Three players made up the majority of that production: Maikel Garcia, Bobby Witt Jr. and Vinnie Pasquantino. Meanwhile, production at second base and in the outfield left much to be desired thanks to disappointing seasons from players like Jac Caglianone, Jonathan India, and Michael Massey. While no one should give up on Caglianone this soon, an improved supporting cast for Witt, Franco, and Pasquantino will be necessary if the club is going to find success next year.

Perhaps a well-executed move or two in free agency (like bringing back Mike Yastrzemski, who excelled with the team after a mid-season trade) could help get the offense on track for next year. But RosterResource projects the Royals for a payroll of $129MM in 2026 as things stand. That means they’d exceed last year’s payroll simply by picking up a club option on franchise icon Salvador Perez. Ownership seems reluctant to raise payroll beyond where it was this past year, and while non-tenders for some of the club’s pricier and less productive arbitration-level players like India and right-hander James McArthur could create more flexibility, money is sure to be tight this winter for Kansas City.

Given that reality, the trade market seems like the team’s best bet for improving the offense. That brings us back to the team’s incredible deep group of rotation candidates. Ragans and Bubic are joined by veteran right-handers Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha as locks for the 2026 rotation, with rookie southpaw Noah Cameron standing as the overwhelming favorite for the fifth starter job. Behind that quintet, however, the Royals have a number of viable starters on affordable deals: Ryan Bergert, Stephen Kolek, Bailey Falter, and Kyle Wright. Any of that quartet could at least theoretically be dangled as part of a package to improve the offense.

Falter struggled badly in 12 innings with the Royals but had a 3.73 ERA in 22 starts with the Pirates prior to a midseason trade, while Wright last pitched in the majors back in 2023 due to injuries but won 21 games and finished in the top 10 for NL Cy Young award voting with Atlanta during the 2022 season. Neither pitcher could be expected to bring back a valuable bat by themselves, but perhaps a starting-pitching hungry club would be interested in trading a hitter for a package that combines either Falter or Wright with some of the Royals’ prospect capital.

Kolek and Bergert, meanwhile, are intriguing arms. Acquired from the Padres in the Freddy Fermin trade at this year’s deadline, both Kolek (3.51 ERA in 19 starts) and Bergert (3.86 ERA in 15 starts) pitched like capable mid-rotation arms in part-time roles last year and will still make the league minimum next season. Virtually any team in baseball would be interested in getting their hands on them, and it’s not at all hard to imagine a team with an excess of interesting young hitters like the Mets, Cubs or Giants being willing to part ways with some of that talent to acquire one of those players.

Dealing Kolek or Bergert could bring back a similarly controllable hitter who hasn’t yet fully established themselves at the big league level, but it’s also entirely possible that the Royals could look to take another shot at a deal like the Brady Singer for Jonathan India swap from last offseason. That one didn’t go very well given India’s struggles this winter and Singer’s respectable mid-rotation performance in 32 starts for Cincinnati, but perhaps this winter could go differently if the Royals decided to listen to offers on lefty Kris Bubic.

Bubic dominated this season with a 2.55 ERA and 2.90 FIP in 20 starts that earned him an All-Star nod, and while a rotator cuff strain ended his 2025 campaign early he’s expected to have a normal offseason and be ready for Spring Training 2026.  After emerging as a legitimate front-of-the-rotation arm this year, Bubic’s value to the 2026 Royals is obvious. With that being said, he’s also slated to reach free agency following the 2026 campaign, and if he turns in another season anything like last year the Royals won’t be able to afford to keep him in town.

That could make listening to offers on the lefty an attractive proposition, particularly if a quality everyday regular controlled beyond 2026 could be had in exchange for Bubic’s services. Teams like the Mets and Red Sox figure to have interest in the high-end pitching market this winter and have plenty of controllable hitters who could help transform the Royals lineup. With Bergert and Kolek available to backfill the rotation after a hypothetical Bubic trade, it’s easy to imagine the team being able to put together one of the more productive rotations in baseball even without Bubic.

Cost-controlled, high-upside pitchers are some of the hottest commodities on the trade market in baseball for a reason. They aren’t easy to come by, and “you can never have too much pitching” is a baseball cliche for a reason. Even teams with deep groups of potential starters are often reluctant to deal them away for fear that a rash of injuries could leave them understaffed and wishing they still had that young arm they dealt away during the offseason.

With all that being said, the Royals are in clear need of a makeover on offense, and a higher payroll doesn’t appear to be on the way to make that happen in free agency. This winter could be a particularly fruitful trade market for pitching as well, given the lack of a slam-dunk ace at the top of the class like Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Blake Snell, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto have been in recent offseasons. If Kansas City hopes to compete with the Tigers and Guardians headed into next season and make the most of Witt’s time with the team, dealing some of their coveted pitching assets might prove to be a necessity.

Poll: Are The Mets Likelier To Re-Sign Pete Alonso Or Edwin Diaz?

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Coming off an epic collapse and a non-playoff season, there are plenty of questions facing the Mets heading into the offseason.  As the club explores ways to get better, however, they face a couple of big decisions just in regards to keeping two long-time roster staples in first baseman Pete Alonso and closer Edwin Diaz.  Alonso has already said he will be declining his $24MM player option for 2026 in order to re-enter free agency, and Diaz is widely expected to test the market as well by declining his player options for the 2026-27 seasons (as per the terms of Diaz’s deal, he must exercise or decline both options at once).

Many Mets fans will make the point that the club could or should just re-sign both players.  Money isn’t really an object for a team that has boasted record payrolls under Steve Cohen’s ownership, and Alonso and Diaz are each coming off big seasons.  For all of the Mets’ issues in 2025, Alonso and Diaz weren’t part of the problem — Alonso hit .272/.347/.524 with 38 home runs over 709 plate appearances, and Diaz recorded 28 saves while posting a 1.63 ERA and 38% strikeout rate over 66 1/3 innings.

Retaining either player, of course, comes with a few concerns.  The Mets and Alonso just went through this free agent dance last winter, as after a lack of interest from other suitors and a protracted series of negotiations with New York’s front office, Alonso settled for a two-year, $54MM deal with an opt-out clause after the first season.  Alonso’s goal of entering the market with a better platform season came to fruition, and he also won’t have the qualifying offer attached to his services this time, for any clubs concerned over giving up draft picks to sign him.

While Alonso’s numbers were decidedly better in 2025 than in 2024, the question of whether or not Alonso was still a top-tier bat wasn’t really one of the chief concerns facing the Mets or other free agent suitors last offseason.  Alonso is a right-handed hitting first base-only player, and the market simply hasn’t been too welcoming to such players in recent years, no matter how much pop is in their bats.  Speaking of defense, Alonso’s subpar glovework has him pointed towards a future as a DH, so any team signing the slugger will face the immediate question over how much longer they’re willing to deploy him at first base.  If Alonso projects as a one-dimensional player going forward, the fact that he’s entering his age-31 season means that he is one year closer to the end of his prime.

One plus in Alonso’s favor is his extreme durability.  Diaz is entering his age-32 season, and his health record includes a 2023 season entirely lost due to knee surgery, and a (minimal) stint on the 15-day injured list in 2024 due to a shoulder impingement.  While Diaz isn’t showing any signs of slowing down on the mound, there are also the natural concerns present when considering any bullpen arm for a long-term contract, given how inconsistent most relievers can be on a year-to-year basis.

Diaz’s knee injury obviously hadn’t happened at the time of his last foray into free agency, but larger concerns over his future performance didn’t weigh too heavily on the Mets’ minds in 2022 when the team quickly re-signed the righty to his five-year, $102MM deal soon after the free agent market opened.  Cohen was naturally the one making the final call on Diaz’s new contract, though it is worth noting that Billy Eppler was New York’s general manager at the time of that signing.

Current president of baseball operations David Stearns may well have a different view of Diaz’s value, which is why MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo feels that if the Mets only keep one of the two star free agents, “Alonso has a better chance of staying.”  Stearns has traditionally preferred to build his bullpens with relievers on shorter-term commitments, both when he was running the Brewers’ front office (and focusing more on inexpensive hidden-gem types) and during his two years in Queens (when working with a much larger payroll).

DiComo also observed that “just about everyone needs relief pitching,” so while perhaps only a few teams may be able to meet Diaz’s expected price tag, “Díaz is also likely to have at least as many suitors as Alonso.”  Diaz’s age is a factor in another sense here, as SNY’s Andy Martino points out that Diaz may view this trip to free agency as his “last bite at the apple at getting a huge contract.”  Despite the mutual interest between Diaz and the Mets in a reunion, he might not be able to resist taking the larger offer if a closer-needy team outbids the Mets in years.

Could it be possible that both Alonso and Diaz have played their last game in a Mets uniform?  This seems like perhaps the least-likely scenario, as then the Mets would have to add both first base and closer to an offseason shopping list that is already headlined by a severe need for starting pitching.  Technically, letting both Alonso and Diaz walk would free up more payroll room for the Amazins to splurge on rotation help, or for the club to pursue other quality first base or high-leverage relief that would come at lower price tags.  But, “payroll room” is probably not a big deal to a club with a more or less endless budget.  And, letting two fan favorites go in the same offseason might not appeal to a Mets fanbase that is already upset over the disappointment of 2025.

What do you think will happen with the Mets and these two big free agent decisions? Vote now in our poll.

Offseason Outlook: Pittsburgh Pirates

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The Pirates took a step back in 2025 and fired manager Derek Shelton early in the season. He was replaced by his bench coach, Don Kelly, who'll take over in the dugout into 2026 and beyond. General manager Ben Cherington's job status prompted plenty of speculation, but he'll be back for 2026 as well. Can the Pirates finally turn things around?

Guaranteed Contracts

Total 2026 commitments: $30.5MM
Total long-term commitments: $130.5MM through 2030

Option Decisions

  • None

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

The Pirates have drawn increasing levels of praise for their excellent core of young pitching, headlined by likely NL Cy Young winner Paul Skenes, but the team's collection of bats is miles behind its impressive stable of arms. Anemic offense proved to be Pittsburgh's downfall yet again in 2025. The Pirates scored just 583 runs -- last in the majors and nearly 300 fewer than the MLB-leading Yankees' mark of 849. Pittsburgh hitters connected on just 117 homers -- a whopping 31 long balls behind the 29th-ranked Cardinals. The Pirates' lineup ranked 28th in batting average, 23rd in OBP and dead last in slugging percentage.

Addressing such widespread offensive deficiency isn't an easy task. Cherington's job security was the source of considerable speculation late in the year. He'll be back for 2026, but with Shelton out the door and owner Bob Nutting calling for "urgency" -- a rich declaration from an owner who hasn't signed a free agent to a multi-year deal in a decade -- there's mounting pressure for the sixth-year Pittsburgh GM to bolster the lineup in support of a strong pitching staff.

Even coming off a last-place finish, the Pirates seem far likelier to add to the roster than subtract. That doesn't mean there won't be some veteran Buccos available via trade -- there very likely will be -- but such trades will be aimed at acquiring young, MLB-ready hitters who can augment a lineup that's badly in need of an overhaul. Let's run through the roster and some possibilities.

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