MLBTR Originals

The Case For The Reds To Sign A Big Bat

By Charlie Wright | October 28, 2025 at 10:28am CDT

The Reds’ immediate exit from the playoffs makes it easy to forget the successes of the regular season. Cincinnati snapped a four-year postseason drought in manager Terry Francona’s first season. They won 83 games for just the second time since 2013. This team has something to build on heading into 2026, and now is the time to make a splash in free agency.

As MLBTR’s Anthony Franco explored in Cincinnati’s Offseason Outlook for Front Office subscribers, improving the offense will be key this offseason. The club did not have the depth or high-end talent to compete with the best of the National League. Cincinnati could make smaller moves around the margins, as they’ve done in recent seasons, but why not take a bigger swing?

Financially, the team is in a decent spot. FanGraphs’ RosterResource tool has the Reds with an estimated payroll of around $94MM heading into next season. They were close to $120MM this past season, and have been above $130MM in each season from 2020 to 2022. The biggest current commitment for 2026 is the $13MM owed to Jeimer Candelario. While it stings to be shelling out that amount to a player no longer in the organization, Candelario is the only one on the books for eight figures right now, assuming the team declines Austin Hays’ $12MM mutual option. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz has Brady Singer projected to earn $11.9MM in arbitration, but the righty will likely be the only significant commitment coming from the arbitration process.

Cincinnati’s largest free agent contract by total value is a tie between Nick Castellanos and Mike Moustakas at $64MM over four years in 2020, as shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker. The club will have to go well beyond a $16MM average annual value to entice Kyle Schwarber or Pete Alonso, but maybe combining the outlay on Castellanos and Moustakas would be enough to make an interesting offer.

Part of the reason for the offense being the offseason focus is that the pitching staff was excellent in 2025. Hunter Greene looked like an ace when healthy. Andrew Abbott delivered a breakout season. Singer and Nick Lodolo provided stable innings. Chase Burns posted electrifying strikeout numbers upon getting called up. Cincinnati ranked ninth in starting pitcher ERA. Only six other starting staffs had more strikeouts.

The success on the mound is made more impressive by Cincinnati’s home venue. Great American Ball Park ranks third in StatCast’s Park Factor metric. It’s the second-highest rated park for home runs. The strides made by the starting pitching unit make the shortcomings of the offense harder to swallow, especially given the favorable hitting environment.

Though they snuck into the playoffs after chasing down the Mets, the Reds finished third in the NL Central. They haven’t been better than third in the division since winning it in 2012. This might be the perfect time to buck that trend.

Pittsburgh and St. Louis are in rebuilding mode, making this a three-horse race heading into next season. Milwaukee and Chicago both won 90+ games in 2025, but could be facing significant losses. Kyle Tucker is a free agent. He would fit the bill as a significant splash for Cincinnati, though he’s likely out of their price range. The more likely impact is removing a key contributor from the middle of the Cubs’ lineup. Speaking of important losses, Milwaukee could be considering a Freddy Peralta trade. It would be a massive loss for a rotation without much proven depth and some health questions.

The Brewers and Cubs are still likely the favorites to win the NL Central next season, but the Reds can close the gap. Their finances make a big move possible, and their pitching staff deserves better support. Schwarber said it would be “cool” to suit up for his hometown team. The Reds might as well try to make that happen.

Previewing The 2025-26 Free Agent Class: Left-Handed Relief

By Steve Adams | October 27, 2025 at 9:58pm CDT

All but two teams have already turned their attention toward the offseason. Identifying free agent targets is a big part of that prep work, so it’s worth taking a look at the players who’ll be available at each position.

The 2025-26 class of left-handed relievers is thin on high-leverage arms but has plenty of solid, serviceable veterans — plus a few wild cards who could pursue a big league return after pitching overseas. Ages listed are for the 2026 season.

Previous entries in this series: catcher, first base, second base, third base, shortstop, center field, corner outfield, designated hitter, starting pitching, right-handed relief

Veteran Setup Arms

Jalen Beeks (32)

Beeks took a minor league deal with the Astros last offseason but opted out late in spring and signed a major league contract with the D-backs. It panned out well. He pitched 57 1/3 innings, logged 14 holds and a save, and fanned 20.3% of his opponents against an 8.7% walk rate — all en route to a 3.77 ERA. Beeks sits 94.4 mph with his four-seamer, posted an above-average swinging-strike rate in 2025, and has pitched primarily in medium to high-leverage spots over the past four years. He won’t break the bank but should get a modest one-year deal.

Danny Coulombe (36)

Coulombe, who just turned 36 yesterday, was terrific in 31 innings with the Twins (1.16 ERA, 25.4 K%, 7.4 BB%) but struggled in 12 innings after being traded to the Rangers (5.25 ERA, 22.2 K%, 16.7 BB%). An IL trip due to shoulder fatigue didn’t help his time with the Rangers, and Coulombe also had a three-week IL stint due to a forearm strain with Minnesota in May. Coulombe’s average four-seamer and sinker barely crack 90 mph, but he has a 2.60 ERA with strong strikeout and walk rates in 173 1/3 innings dating back to 2020. He made $3MM this year, and another affordable one-year deal seems likely.

Caleb Ferguson (29)

Ferguson’s one-year, $3MM deal proved to be a sound investment for the frugal Pirates, who flipped him to the Mariners at the deadline after a solid four-month run. Ferguson was effective with both clubs, pitching to a combined 3.58 ERA. His 18.9% strikeout rate was below average, but Ferguson’s 8.1% walk rate was solid and no reliever in baseball limits hard contact as well as he does. His 27.7% opponents’ hard-hit rate was the best in baseball, and he sat in the 99th percentile in average exit velocity and barrel rate. Ferguson doesn’t have plus command or generate whiffs at a plus rate, but he’s young, durable and relatively consistent. He could be a candidate for a multi-year deal with a low average annual value.

Hoby Milner (35)

Milner topped 64 innings for a fourth straight season, tossing 70 1/3 innings with a 3.84 ERA for the Rangers. He’s a soft-tossing lefty with a below-average strikeout rate, good command and a plus ground-ball rate. He’s worked a lot of middle relief in the past, but the Rangers used him as one of their go-to setup options for much of the ’25 season and he logged a career-high 18 holds (topping his previous best of 17 with the ’23 Brewers). Milner signed a one-year, $2.5MM deal with Texas last winter and should land in that general vicinity again.

Drew Pomeranz (37)

Welcome back, Drew Pomeranz. The 36-year-old lefty signed a minor league deal with the Mariners and was flipped to the Cubs for cash in April. With Chicago, he made his first big league appearance since 2021 — but it was far more than a quick cameo. The former No. 5 overall draft pick dominated with a 2.17 ERA, 28.1% strikeout rate and 7.4% walk rate in 49 2/3 frames. Pomeranz was one of Craig Counsell’s most trusted relief arms in the playoffs. He’ll be 37 in November, so he’s not likely to snag a multi-year deal, but a big league contract should be waiting for Pomeranz this winter.

Taylor Rogers (35)

Though his All-Star days are behind him, Rogers has been a solid middle reliever for three years running. His teams haven’t used him regularly in high-leverage spots, but he has a 3.16 ERA, 26.4% strikeout rate and 10.2% walk rate since 2023. Rogers’ 92.7 mph average sinker is down a full three miles from its 2021 peak, but his results and track record should get him a big league contract.

Gregory Soto (31)

Soto might have the most earning power among this winter’s crop of lefties due to both his age and his power repertoire. He’s one of the game’s hardest-throwing lefties but doesn’t generate the whiffs one would expect despite that fact. Soto is serviceable every year but has never broken through despite plus velo and a plus swinging-strike rate. Soto has had command troubles in the past but has posted nice walk rates in two of the past three seasons. A two-year deal at market value setup money seems possible.

Caleb Thielbar (39)

Thielbar’s first season with any team other than his hometown Twins was a success. He pitched 58 innings of 2.64 ERA ball for the Cubs and tied Brad Keller for the team lead with 25 holds. Thielbar’s 2024 season was ugly, but he’s posted an ERA of 3.49 or better every other year since 2020. He has average velocity, good command and an above-average strikeout rate, but he’ll be 39 in January, so a one-year deal is the strong likelihood.

Justin Wilson (38)

Wilson missed nearly all of 2022-23 due to Tommy John surgery, struggled with the Reds in 2024, and bounced all the way back in Boston this year. The Red Sox got him on a one-year, $2.25MM deal last winter, and Wilson responded with 48 1/3 innings, a 3.35 earned run average, a 27.5% strikeout rate, a 9.7% walk rate and 18 holds. He should get another one-year deal this winter, probably with nice little bump in salary.

Swingmen/Multi-Inning Arms

Sean Newcomb (33)

“Sean Newcomb, multi-year deal candidate” probably wasn’t on too many bingo cards back in March, but the 2025 season was excellent for the former top prospect and starter-turned-reliever. Newcomb tossed 92 1/3 innings with a 2.73 ERA for the Red Sox and A’s. He started five games and frequently worked multiple innings — sometimes as a bulk reliever after an opener. The 2014 first-rounder punched out 23.3% of his opponents versus a 7.9% walk rate — both slightly better than average. Newcomb has easily earned himself a major league deal, and a modest two-year deal seems plausible.

Ryan Yarbrough (34)

Yarbrough’s 2025 season was par for the course by his standards: eight starts, 11 relief outings, a mid-4.00s ERA, below-average strikeout rate and solid command. That’s what Yarbrough brings to the table most years, and while it’s not a skill set that’s going to get him paid all that highly, it keeps him on big league rosters as a sixth starter/long man in the bullpen on a yearly basis. Yarbrough averages 87-88 mph but induces heaps of weak contact.

Possible NPB Returnees

Foster Griffin (30)

Griffin is a former first-round pick of the Royals who made seven MLB appearances between 2020-22. He has spent the past three seasons in Japan, combining for a 2.57 ERA across 315 2/3 innings. Griffin missed time this past season with what MLBTR has learned was a bone bruise in his lower half. He’s expected to have a normal offseason and intends to pursue an MLB return. Griffin didn’t have overpowering stuff during his initial run in affiliated ball, but he’s coming off a 1.62 ERA while striking out a quarter of opponents. He could command a big league deal to compete for a back-of-the-rotation spot.

Anthony Kay (31)

A former first-round pick, Kay has spent the past two seasons with the Yokohama DeNA BayStars in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. He’s worked out of their rotation, logging a 3.42 ERA in ’24 and a 1.74 mark in ’25. Kay isn’t missing bats at a particularly high level (20.8 K%), but he had good command and a nice ground-ball rate overseas. Big league scouts have been watching him, and while he might get the chance to start somewhere, other clubs will probably be interested in bringing him aboard in a swingman capacity. Either way, he’s at least a candidate for a major league deal.

Options/Opt-Outs

Jose Alvarado (31) – $9MM club option with a $500K buyout

An 80-game PED suspension cast a cloud over Alvarado’s 2025 season, but the hard-throwing southpaw has been one of the Phillies’ best relievers for several years. Dating back to 2022, Alvarado touts a 3.25 ERA and has fanned 31.7% of his opponents while averaging 98.7 mph on his sinker and 93.1 mph on his cutter. He’d easily top that net $8.5MM in free agency, so the Phils should pick this up.

Tim Hill (36) – $3MM club option with a $350K buyout

Hill, 36 in February, is a ground-ball specialist who misses almost no bats but rarely walks opponents. He’s logged a 2.68 ERA and kept about two-thirds of the batted balls against him on the ground in 111 innings since joining the Yankees in 2024. This feels like a nice value for the Yankees, even with their luxury tax status.

A.J. Minter (32) – $11MM player option

Minter underwent lat surgery back in May after pitching only 11 innings. The recovery timetable for him is still a bit murky, but he seems likely to pick up that $11MM option, return to the Mets and aim for better health next year.

Wandy Peralta (34) – $4.45MM player option (contract also contains $4.45MM player option for 2027)

Peralta posted a 3.14 ERA in a career-high 71 2/3 innings with a career-best 59.7% ground-ball rate in 2025. His 20.1% strikeout rate and 9.6% walk rate were worse than average. Peralta still averages better than 95 mph on his sinker, but he’ll be 35 in July and was used largely in low-leverage spots. It’s likelier than not that he picks up his player option.

Brooks Raley (38) – $4.75MM club option with a $750K buyout

Raley returned from Tommy John surgery to toss 25 2/3 innings with a 2.45 ERA, a 25.3% strikeout rate and a 6.1% walk rate. His sinker’s average velocity had dipped to 88-89 mph in 2023-24, but he was back up to 90.7 mph this year, right in line with his 2021-22 levels in Houston and Tampa Bay. This option is likely to be picked up.

Brent Suter (36) – $3MM club option with a $250K buyout

Suter posted a career-high 4.52 ERA in 67 2/3 innings this season, snapping a streak of six straight years with a sub-4.00 earned run average. He’s a soft tosser who specializes in weak contact over missing bats. This will probably get bought out, but Suter is a Cincinnati native who’s clearly enjoyed pitching for his hometown club, so perhaps he’d be amenable to returning on a smaller pact.

Depth Arms

Scott Alexander (36)
Tyler Alexander (31)
Ryan Borucki (32)
Genesis Cabrera (29)
Andrew Chafin (36)
Tim Mayza (34)
T.J. McFarland (37)
Cionel Perez (30)
Colin Poche (32)

Extension Candidate: Pete Crow-Armstrong

By Nick Deeds | October 26, 2025 at 3:06pm CDT

Few players captured more attention throughout the 2025 season than Pete Crow-Armstrong. The young center fielder seemed to launch himself into superstardom in the first half this year, with 20 doubles, 21 homers, and 25 steals through the end of June. That worked out to a .263/.299/.537 slash line, good for a 128 wRC+ with elite defense in center field that made him an early rival for Shohei Ohtani in this year’s MVP race. He followed up that brilliant performance with a far less exciting second half, as he slashed just .228/.274/.412 (86 wRC+) with 17 doubles, ten home runs, and ten steals from July 1 onward.

Crow-Armstrong’s second-half slump was enough to knock him far out of the MVP conversation, but his season-long numbers remain impressive. In 157 games, the 23-year-old hit .247/.287/.481 (109 wRC+) with 35 steals in 43 attempts and an MLB-best +24 Outs Above Average for his work in center field. All of that combined to be worth 6.0 bWAR and 5.4 fWAR, good for 11th and 15th respectively among qualified hitters this year. A five- or six-win season from a 23-year-old who entered the year with less than 150 games of big league experience is hard to view as anything other than an exciting success, and that’s how Jed Hoyer characterized it in his end-of-season press conference shortly after the Cubs’ season came to a close in Game 5 of the NLDS.

“In totality, he had a great year,” Hoyer said of Crow-Armstrong, as relayed by Patrick Mooney of The Athletic. Hoyer went on to describe Crow-Armstrong as “the best defensive player in baseball” and noted that “when he’s hitting, he’s a superstar.”

All of that rings true based on his performance this season, and as the Cubs head into an offseason where Hoyer acknowledged they hope to have extension conversations with several players, Mooney writes that locking up the team’s star center fielder “figures to be the top priority.”

It won’t be the first time the Cubs and Crow-Armstrong talk about extending his stay in Chicago beyond his years of team control. The sides discussed an extension towards the beginning of the year, before his standout first half, and Crow-Armstrong passed on a deal that reportedly would’ve maxed out around $75MM with a guarantee in the $60MM-$70MM range. Crow-Armstrong, of course, rejected that offer, and while Hoyer expressed an openness to discussing an extension with the youngster’s camp during the season no further progress on the topic was reported throughout the year. Perhaps that’s not surprising, given the unusual year Crow-Armstrong just had.

If the Cubs do intend to reopen extension talks with their budding star, what could a sensible contract look like? After entering 2025 just barely short of a full year of MLB service time, Crow-Armstrong currently remains under control through the end of the 2030 season. At that point, he figures to be ticketed for free agency ahead of his age-29 campaign. A look at MLBTR’s Contract Tracker offers a wide range of comparable players in recent years. Players like Ke’Bryan Hayes, Lawrence Butler, and Ezequiel Tovar had less than two years of MLB service when they signed their deals, like Crow-Armstrong. They all landed extensions in the $60MM to $70MM range that the Cubs reportedly offered prior to this season, but those deals were blown out of the water by the $134.2MM guarantee Jackson Merrill landed in his eight-year extension with the Padres back in April.

Merrill is a year younger than Crow-Armstrong, meaning he signed his deal at the start of his age-22 season while Crow-Armstrong would be signing ahead of his age-24 season this offseason. Both players had five seasons left under club control before free agency, however, and were coming off similarly elite platform seasons; Merril’s 130 wRC+ outshone Crow-Armstrong, but his lesser defense and baserunning left him with a roughly comparable 5.3 fWAR. They also play the same position, making Merrill’s recent deal a logical point of reference for Crow-Armstrong overall.

It’s the second-highest guarantee an outfielder with less than two seasons of MLB service time has received in MLB history, behind the $210MM guarantee the Mariners offered Julio Rodriguez that can max out at $470MM over 17 years if all incentives are reached and options are exercised. Given that Rodriguez was in the midst of posting a 148 wRC+ with 5.7 fWAR and 6.2 bWAR in just 132 games as a 21-year-old rookie when he signed his extension, it’s safe to expect that a deal for Crow-Armstrong would come in closer to Merrill’s contract.

A contract similar to the one signed by Merrill could make some sense, and an eight-year, $140MM contract would beat Merrill’s contract in terms of both guarantee and average annual value. However, the Cubs may not be interested in such a large guarantee for only three additional seasons of team control, while Crow-Armstrong may not want to head into free agency at the tail end of his physical prime as a player who derives as much value from speed and defense.

Then, perhaps, the sides could get together on a longer contract that would buy out more free agent years. An 11-year deal that runs through the 2036 season would keep Crow-Armstrong in town for the rest of his prime and buy out six free agent years. An 11-year, $187MM guarantee would narrowly eclipse Merrill by both guarantee and AAV, while also narrowly beating out the eight-year, $184MM contract the Cubs gave Jason Heyward during the 2015-16 offseason for the largest deal in franchise history.

It would be a risky investment given Crow-Armstrong’s lackluster plate discipline, which left him with the third-highest swinging-strike rate in the majors this year. Given that risk and the fact that Crow-Armstrong is not set to even reach arbitration until next winter, it would be understandable if the Cubs decided to wait and see how the 2026 season played out before committing that sort of money to their center fielder.

On the other hand, the upside in Crow-Armstrong’s profile is obvious and Chicago’s reluctance to spend at the top of the market on free agents in recent years could mean that waiting another year could put Crow-Armstrong out of Chicago’s price range entirely. Rolling the dice on an extension for Crow-Armstrong could be the team’s best bet of securing a long-term, star-caliber talent. Meanwhile, it would be understandable if Crow-Armstrong was motivated to lock in long-term financial security ahead of a 2026-27 offseason where a contentious round of collective bargaining over the sport’s economic future is widely expected.

What Can The Reds Expect From Matt McLain In 2026?

By Nick Deeds | October 26, 2025 at 11:38am CDT

It was a good season for the Reds in 2025, on balance. Hunter Greene replicated his excellent 2024 and cemented himself as one of the game’s top young starters, Andrew Abbott enjoyed a career-year that saw him make his first trip to the All-Star game, and despite winning just 83 games the club managed to squeak into the postseason for the first time in a full season since 2013.

With all that being said, however, there are clear flaws with the team as presently constructed and it’s not at all hard to see where the team needs to improve if they hope to return to the playoffs next year for another bite at the apple. The Cincinnati offense disappointed across the board this season, with even star shortstop Elly De La Cruz hitting 11 fewer extra-base hits and swiping 30 fewer bases than last year despite similar on-base numbers.

In a season where virtually every piece of the club’s offensive nucleus fell short of expectations, it seems a bit unfair to single out any one player. Even so, the struggles second baseman Matt McLain faced stand out among the crowd. McLain was one of the most exciting young players in baseball as recently as 2023, when his sensational 89-game rookie season earned him a fifth-place finish in NL Rookie of the Year voting that year. Unfortunately, he missed the entire 2024 season due to injuries and in some regards looked like a shell of his former self this season.

That’s not to say he regressed across the board. McLain’s 28.9% strikeout rate this season was a near perfect match for the 28.5% clip he struck out at back in 2023. His 9.5% walk rate was actually a substantial improvement over the 7.7% rate he posted in his rookie campaign. His defense was also phenomenal as he finished the year with +6 Fielding Run Value, a figure bested by just eight qualified middle infielders in baseball this year. That’s a substantial step up from the +1 FRV McLain offered in his rookie campaign.

Those are all positive (or, in the case of McLain’s strikeout rate, at least neutral) signs relative to 2023. It’s also where the good times come to an end, however. McLain’s power was down substantially by just about every metric this past year. After slugging 16 homers in 89 games as a rookie, he hit 15 across 147 games this year. His doubles also dropped from 23 to 18, while his triples actually dropped from four all the way down to zero. Hitting ten fewer extra-base hits in 174 more plate appearances is a drop in power output that’s nothing short of alarming, and McLain’s paltry .124 ISO put him in the bottom 20 among qualified hitters this year. His barrel rate dropped more than three points from 2023, and his hard-hit rate has dropped nearly two.

That falls short of even some notoriously contact-oriented hitters like Jung Hoo Lee and Jacob Wilson. While those players (not to mention hitters with even less power like Luis Arraez and Nico Hoerner) get away with that minimal power output thanks to elite bat-to-ball skills, but McLain’s lack of improvement in the strikeout department leaves him unable to emulate that brand of hitting. Barring a massive drop in strikeout rate next year, McLain will need to recapture some of that power if he’s going to improve over this year’s paltry 77 wRC+, much less approach the 129 wRC+ he posted in his rookie season.

Just how feasible is that? It’s hard to believe that he’ll get back to that level he flashed in 2023 entirely, because that was buoyed in no small part by a .385 BABIP. A BABIP of .350 is typically viewed as around the upper limit of the sustainable year-to-year range, and McLain’s .292 BABIP this year falls firmly into that more sustainable range. It’s possible it ticks back up in the future, but reversing that more than 90-point drop appears to be little more than a pipe dream. Getting back above league average, however, seems to be a far more reasonable ask, and one that could turn McLain into a key piece of Cincinnati’s core once again.

He’ll need to adjust his approach a bit if he’s going to get there. McLain’s hard-hit rate was only marginally lower than his rookie season in 2025, but he lost more than a quarter of his barrels on a rate basis this season. Some of that can surely be attributed to a stark drop in line drives. While McLain’s grounder rate stayed stagnant at 38.7% between this year and 2023, his line drive rate dropped from a 24.2% clip as a rookie to just 17.2% this year. To put those numbers in context, his line drive rate this year ranked 132nd among 145 qualified hitters, while his 2023 rate would’ve ranked eighth this year among that same group.

Getting back to a more line drive oriented approach could help McLain both recoup some of those lost extra-base hits, and it would also help with his steeply declining BABIP. McLain hit 44.2% of his batted balls in the air this year, a top-30 clip in the majors. That works well for hitters like Aaron Judge and Kyle Schwarber who have the power to slug 40+ homers on an annual basis, but it’s a much less effective recipe for success for someone with McLain’s profile. He pulled the ball less often than all but 23 of the league’s qualified hitters this year, leaving him with a lot of fly outs and pop ups but little production to show for it.

If McLain can lower his launch angle a bit next year, he could get back to hitting the sweet spot more often than he did this year. That was the secret ingredient that made McLain so effective in 2023, as his 39.6% sweet spot rate ranked in the 94th percentile among all MLB hitters. That dropped to just 34.0% this year, which placed him in the 43rd percentile. The good news for McLain and the Reds is that a change in approach is far easier to correct than a step back in underlying skills, and McLain’s discipline, defense, speed and bat speed all seem to be either right where they were in his rookie year or even better. That makes it relatively easy to imagine him re-emerging as a core piece of a Reds lineup that will need to generate a lot more offense this year if they want to build on their cameo in the playoffs this season.

Kansas City’s Impressive Rotation Stockpile Is Ripe For A Trade

By Nick Deeds | October 25, 2025 at 9:26pm CDT

After making it to Game 4 of the ALDS last year on the back of a solid 86-win campaign, the Royals took a step back this year with an 82-80 record that left them five games back of an AL Wild Card spot when all was said and done. It was a disappointing season, though Kansas City really performed rather admirably considering that they got just 13 starts out of staff ace Cole Ragans while Kris Bubic found himself sidelined for the second half by an injury of his own. While health in the rotation helped to sink the team this year, it’s possible that the team’s deep arsenal of starters could help them reinvent the team on the trade market as they look ahead to 2026.

Given that Kansas City’s rotation being unable to stay healthy proved to be the difference between a return to the playoffs this year and sitting at home this October, it might sound like blasphemy to suggest trading from that same rotation should be on the table for the Royals this winter. The reality of the club’s situation, however, is that they would have been able to get by with their contributions from the rotation had their offense put up more of a fight. The Kansas City offense posted a 93 wRC+ this year, good for just 22nd in the majors as they slashed just .247/.309/.397 as a team.

That’s a tough slash line to put together a contender with as it is, but the need for improvement is highlighted by the success of the team’s stars. Three players made up the majority of that production: Maikel Garcia, Bobby Witt Jr. and Vinnie Pasquantino. Meanwhile, production at second base and in the outfield left much to be desired thanks to disappointing seasons from players like Jac Caglianone, Jonathan India, and Michael Massey. While no one should give up on Caglianone this soon, an improved supporting cast for Witt, Franco, and Pasquantino will be necessary if the club is going to find success next year.

Perhaps a well-executed move or two in free agency (like bringing back Mike Yastrzemski, who excelled with the team after a mid-season trade) could help get the offense on track for next year. But RosterResource projects the Royals for a payroll of $129MM in 2026 as things stand. That means they’d exceed last year’s payroll simply by picking up a club option on franchise icon Salvador Perez. Ownership seems reluctant to raise payroll beyond where it was this past year, and while non-tenders for some of the club’s pricier and less productive arbitration-level players like India and right-hander James McArthur could create more flexibility, money is sure to be tight this winter for Kansas City.

Given that reality, the trade market seems like the team’s best bet for improving the offense. That brings us back to the team’s incredible deep group of rotation candidates. Ragans and Bubic are joined by veteran right-handers Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha as locks for the 2026 rotation, with rookie southpaw Noah Cameron standing as the overwhelming favorite for the fifth starter job. Behind that quintet, however, the Royals have a number of viable starters on affordable deals: Ryan Bergert, Stephen Kolek, Bailey Falter, and Kyle Wright. Any of that quartet could at least theoretically be dangled as part of a package to improve the offense.

Falter struggled badly in 12 innings with the Royals but had a 3.73 ERA in 22 starts with the Pirates prior to a midseason trade, while Wright last pitched in the majors back in 2023 due to injuries but won 21 games and finished in the top 10 for NL Cy Young award voting with Atlanta during the 2022 season. Neither pitcher could be expected to bring back a valuable bat by themselves, but perhaps a starting-pitching hungry club would be interested in trading a hitter for a package that combines either Falter or Wright with some of the Royals’ prospect capital.

Kolek and Bergert, meanwhile, are intriguing arms. Acquired from the Padres in the Freddy Fermin trade at this year’s deadline, both Kolek (3.51 ERA in 19 starts) and Bergert (3.86 ERA in 15 starts) pitched like capable mid-rotation arms in part-time roles last year and will still make the league minimum next season. Virtually any team in baseball would be interested in getting their hands on them, and it’s not at all hard to imagine a team with an excess of interesting young hitters like the Mets, Cubs or Giants being willing to part ways with some of that talent to acquire one of those players.

Dealing Kolek or Bergert could bring back a similarly controllable hitter who hasn’t yet fully established themselves at the big league level, but it’s also entirely possible that the Royals could look to take another shot at a deal like the Brady Singer for Jonathan India swap from last offseason. That one didn’t go very well given India’s struggles this winter and Singer’s respectable mid-rotation performance in 32 starts for Cincinnati, but perhaps this winter could go differently if the Royals decided to listen to offers on lefty Kris Bubic.

Bubic dominated this season with a 2.55 ERA and 2.90 FIP in 20 starts that earned him an All-Star nod, and while a rotator cuff strain ended his 2025 campaign early he’s expected to have a normal offseason and be ready for Spring Training 2026. After emerging as a legitimate front-of-the-rotation arm this year, Bubic’s value to the 2026 Royals is obvious. With that being said, he’s also slated to reach free agency following the 2026 campaign, and if he turns in another season anything like last year the Royals won’t be able to afford to keep him in town.

That could make listening to offers on the lefty an attractive proposition, particularly if a quality everyday regular controlled beyond 2026 could be had in exchange for Bubic’s services. Teams like the Mets and Red Sox figure to have interest in the high-end pitching market this winter and have plenty of controllable hitters who could help transform the Royals lineup. With Bergert and Kolek available to backfill the rotation after a hypothetical Bubic trade, it’s easy to imagine the team being able to put together one of the more productive rotations in baseball even without Bubic.

Cost-controlled, high-upside pitchers are some of the hottest commodities on the trade market in baseball for a reason. They aren’t easy to come by, and “you can never have too much pitching” is a baseball cliche for a reason. Even teams with deep groups of potential starters are often reluctant to deal them away for fear that a rash of injuries could leave them understaffed and wishing they still had that young arm they dealt away during the offseason.

With all that being said, the Royals are in clear need of a makeover on offense, and a higher payroll doesn’t appear to be on the way to make that happen in free agency. This winter could be a particularly fruitful trade market for pitching as well, given the lack of a slam-dunk ace at the top of the class like Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Blake Snell, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto have been in recent offseasons. If Kansas City hopes to compete with the Tigers and Guardians headed into next season and make the most of Witt’s time with the team, dealing some of their coveted pitching assets might prove to be a necessity.

Poll: Are The Mets Likelier To Re-Sign Pete Alonso Or Edwin Diaz?

By Mark Polishuk | October 25, 2025 at 11:50am CDT

Coming off an epic collapse and a non-playoff season, there are plenty of questions facing the Mets heading into the offseason. As the club explores ways to get better, however, they face a couple of big decisions just in regards to keeping two long-time roster staples in first baseman Pete Alonso and closer Edwin Diaz. Alonso has already said he will be declining his $24MM player option for 2026 in order to re-enter free agency, and Diaz is widely expected to test the market as well by declining his player options for the 2026-27 seasons (as per the terms of Diaz’s deal, he must exercise or decline both options at once).

Many Mets fans will make the point that the club could or should just re-sign both players. Money isn’t really an object for a team that has boasted record payrolls under Steve Cohen’s ownership, and Alonso and Diaz are each coming off big seasons. For all of the Mets’ issues in 2025, Alonso and Diaz weren’t part of the problem — Alonso hit .272/.347/.524 with 38 home runs over 709 plate appearances, and Diaz recorded 28 saves while posting a 1.63 ERA and 38% strikeout rate over 66 1/3 innings.

Retaining either player, of course, comes with a few concerns. The Mets and Alonso just went through this free agent dance last winter, as after a lack of interest from other suitors and a protracted series of negotiations with New York’s front office, Alonso settled for a two-year, $54MM deal with an opt-out clause after the first season. Alonso’s goal of entering the market with a better platform season came to fruition, and he also won’t have the qualifying offer attached to his services this time, for any clubs concerned over giving up draft picks to sign him.

While Alonso’s numbers were decidedly better in 2025 than in 2024, the question of whether or not Alonso was still a top-tier bat wasn’t really one of the chief concerns facing the Mets or other free agent suitors last offseason. Alonso is a right-handed hitting first base-only player, and the market simply hasn’t been too welcoming to such players in recent years, no matter how much pop is in their bats. Speaking of defense, Alonso’s subpar glovework has him pointed towards a future as a DH, so any team signing the slugger will face the immediate question over how much longer they’re willing to deploy him at first base. If Alonso projects as a one-dimensional player going forward, the fact that he’s entering his age-31 season means that he is one year closer to the end of his prime.

One plus in Alonso’s favor is his extreme durability. Diaz is entering his age-32 season, and his health record includes a 2023 season entirely lost due to knee surgery, and a (minimal) stint on the 15-day injured list in 2024 due to a shoulder impingement. While Diaz isn’t showing any signs of slowing down on the mound, there are also the natural concerns present when considering any bullpen arm for a long-term contract, given how inconsistent most relievers can be on a year-to-year basis.

Diaz’s knee injury obviously hadn’t happened at the time of his last foray into free agency, but larger concerns over his future performance didn’t weigh too heavily on the Mets’ minds in 2022 when the team quickly re-signed the righty to his five-year, $102MM deal soon after the free agent market opened. Cohen was naturally the one making the final call on Diaz’s new contract, though it is worth noting that Billy Eppler was New York’s general manager at the time of that signing.

Current president of baseball operations David Stearns may well have a different view of Diaz’s value, which is why MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo feels that if the Mets only keep one of the two star free agents, “Alonso has a better chance of staying.” Stearns has traditionally preferred to build his bullpens with relievers on shorter-term commitments, both when he was running the Brewers’ front office (and focusing more on inexpensive hidden-gem types) and during his two years in Queens (when working with a much larger payroll).

DiComo also observed that “just about everyone needs relief pitching,” so while perhaps only a few teams may be able to meet Diaz’s expected price tag, “Díaz is also likely to have at least as many suitors as Alonso.” Diaz’s age is a factor in another sense here, as SNY’s Andy Martino points out that Diaz may view this trip to free agency as his “last bite at the apple at getting a huge contract.” Despite the mutual interest between Diaz and the Mets in a reunion, he might not be able to resist taking the larger offer if a closer-needy team outbids the Mets in years.

Could it be possible that both Alonso and Diaz have played their last game in a Mets uniform? This seems like perhaps the least-likely scenario, as then the Mets would have to add both first base and closer to an offseason shopping list that is already headlined by a severe need for starting pitching. Technically, letting both Alonso and Diaz walk would free up more payroll room for the Amazins to splurge on rotation help, or for the club to pursue other quality first base or high-leverage relief that would come at lower price tags. But, “payroll room” is probably not a big deal to a club with a more or less endless budget. And, letting two fan favorites go in the same offseason might not appeal to a Mets fanbase that is already upset over the disappointment of 2025.

What do you think will happen with the Mets and these two big free agent decisions? Vote now in our poll.

Offseason Outlook: Pittsburgh Pirates

By Steve Adams | October 25, 2025 at 7:51am CDT

The Pirates took a step back in 2025 and fired manager Derek Shelton early in the season. He was replaced by his bench coach, Don Kelly, who'll take over in the dugout into 2026 and beyond. General manager Ben Cherington's job status prompted plenty of speculation, but he'll be back for 2026 as well. Can the Pirates finally turn things around?

Guaranteed Contracts

Bryan Reynolds, OF: $76MM through 2030 (including buyout of 2031 club option)
Mitch Keller, RHP: $54.5MM through 2028

Total 2026 commitments: $30.5MM
Total long-term commitments: $130.5MM through 2030

Option Decisions

None

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Dennis Santana (5.126): $3.4MM
Johan Oviedo (4.078): $2MM
Joey Bart (4.020): $2.7MM
Justin Lawrence (3.167): $1.2MM
Yohan Ramirez (3.135): $1.2MM
Colin Holderman (3.120): $1.7MM
Oneil Cruz (3.110): $3.6MM
Dauri Moreta (3.056): $800K
Jack Suwinski (2.170): $1.7MM
Non-tender candidates: Holderman, Ramirez, Suwinski, Moreta

Free Agents

Andrew McCutchen, Tommy Pham

The Pirates have drawn increasing levels of praise for their excellent core of young pitching, headlined by likely NL Cy Young winner Paul Skenes, but the team's collection of bats is miles behind its impressive stable of arms. Anemic offense proved to be Pittsburgh's downfall yet again in 2025. The Pirates scored just 583 runs -- last in the majors and nearly 300 fewer than the MLB-leading Yankees' mark of 849. Pittsburgh hitters connected on just 117 homers -- a whopping 31 long balls behind the 29th-ranked Cardinals. The Pirates' lineup ranked 28th in batting average, 23rd in OBP and dead last in slugging percentage.

Addressing such widespread offensive deficiency isn't an easy task. Cherington's job security was the source of considerable speculation late in the year. He'll be back for 2026, but with Shelton out the door and owner Bob Nutting calling for "urgency" -- a rich declaration from an owner who hasn't signed a free agent to a multi-year deal in a decade -- there's mounting pressure for the sixth-year Pittsburgh GM to bolster the lineup in support of a strong pitching staff.

Even coming off a last-place finish, the Pirates seem far likelier to add to the roster than subtract. That doesn't mean there won't be some veteran Buccos available via trade -- there very likely will be -- but such trades will be aimed at acquiring young, MLB-ready hitters who can augment a lineup that's badly in need of an overhaul. Let's run through the roster and some possibilities.

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Previewing The 2025-26 Free Agent Class: Starting Pitcher

By Anthony Franco | October 24, 2025 at 11:00pm CDT

MLBTR continues its position-by-position look at the upcoming free agent class. We’ve gone through each offensive position and now turn to the starting rotation. For this exercise, we’re focused on pitchers who spent most of this past season working as a starter. Some relievers (e.g. Luke Weaver, Steven Matz, Sean Newcomb) could also receive rotation interest. They’ll be covered in the respective reliever previews. Player ages, listed in parentheses, are for the 2026 season.

Previous entries in this series: catcher, first base, second base, third base, shortstop, center field, corner outfield, designated hitter, right-handed relief

Top Group

Dylan Cease (30)

Cease may be the biggest wild card of the free agent class. He entered the season as the presumptive top pitcher. A repeat of his fourth-place Cy Young season from 2024 would’ve positioned him for a $225-250MM contract. He instead had an uneven platform season, finishing with a 4.55 earned run average across 168 innings. His past four seasons have alternated between top five Cy Young finishes (2022, ’24) and years with an ERA closer to 5.00 than to 4.00 (2023, ’25).

The positives are obvious. Cease has not missed a start in four years. He’s eighth in MLB in innings going back to the start of 2022. He has top-of-the-rotation stuff headlined by a fastball that sits above 97 MPH. It’s the seventh-highest average fastball speed among starters. This year’s 29.8% strikeout rate was right in line with the swing-and-miss numbers he posted during his ace-caliber seasons. Among pitchers with 100+ innings, only Tarik Skubal had a higher swinging strike rate.

All that said, Cease’s camp is going to have an uphill battle pushing for a $200MM+ contract for a pitcher coming off a second mediocre ERA in three years. The Phillies re-signed Aaron Nola for seven years and $172MM coming off a 4.46 ERA a few years back, but Nola was a more reliable source of innings. Cease has been durable but is generally inefficient and only averaged 5.25 innings per start this year. He didn’t work beyond six frames after June 21.

The Padres will issue Cease a qualifying offer, which he’s a lock to decline. If a $200MM offer doesn’t materialize, it’d make sense for him to look for a two- or three-year guarantee that allows him to opt out and give free agency another go next winter. It’s tough to see him splitting the difference and accepting a four- or five-year deal without opt-outs that pays him like a #3/4 starter.

Tatsuya Imai (28)*

Imai, who is likely to be posted by NPB’s Seibu Lions, is the best foreign pitcher in this year’s class. He might command the top contract of any pitcher. The 5’11” hurler won’t turn 28 until May, making him the youngest free agent pitcher of note. He has posted ace-caliber numbers in consecutive seasons. Imai turned in a 2.34 ERA last year and posted a 1.92 mark across 163 2/3 innings this past season. He ranked second in NPB with 178 strikeouts and led the league (minimum 100 innings) with a 27.8% strikeout rate.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote in September that contract estimates from people with whom he spoke ranged from $80MM to over $200MM. Imai isn’t the slam dunk ace that Yoshinobu Yamamoto was when he commanded $325MM from the Dodgers. He’s younger and throws a lot harder than Shota Imanaga did when he signed a four-year, $53MM guarantee.

Teams are going to have different evaluations on his stuff and some clubs might feel there’s a risk that his command projects him to relief. Imai has improved his control each season and is coming off a solid 7% walk rate, but he’d issued free passes to more than 9% of opponents in every year before this one. Whatever team wins the bidding will be one that views Imai as a slam dunk starter, though, and he’s likely to be paid as a #3 arm who is in the prime of his career.

Ranger Suárez (30)

Suárez has been a steady #2/3 starter for the Phillies over the past four seasons. He’s coming off arguably the best year of his career. He turned in a 3.20 ERA over a personal-high 157 1/3 innings. Suárez fanned a solid 23.2% of opponents against an excellent 5.8% walk rate. He reliably gets weak contact and has gotten ground-balls at a 51% clip since the start of 2022.

The lefty doesn’t have the kind of power stuff that tends to get paid highly. He hasn’t reached a league average swinging strike rate in any of the last four years. His sinker has averaged between 90-91 MPH in each of the past two seasons. The multi-year track record should support a nine-figure deal spanning five or six years. Suárez will reject a qualifying offer and be attached to draft compensation.

Framber Valdez (32)

Valdez is now the top domestic free agent starter in the class. The southpaw is coming off his sixth consecutive sub-4.00 ERA season. He hasn’t gone on the injured list in four seasons. Valdez has slightly above-average strikeout stuff, but his standout skill is an elite ground-ball rate. He sits in the 95-96 MPH range with his heater, so he’s hardly a soft-tossing grounder specialist. There are clear parallels to Max Fried, who commanded an eight-year and $218MM deal last winter.

Valdez isn’t going to get that long of a contract. There hasn’t been a six-year deal for a 32-year-old free agent starting pitcher in a decade. Valdez would have had a better case to snap that precedent had he finished the season well. He ended with a 6.05 ERA over his final 10 starts. Valdez was also at the center of controversy when he didn’t appear to show much concern after a cross-up that led him to drill catcher César Salazar in the chest. The Astros downplayed that publicly, but he could face some questions about the situation from interested teams.

That’s unlikely to stop him from commanding a five-year contract that pays between $25-30MM annually. He’ll cost a team a draft choice after he declines a qualifying offer. Extension talks with the Astros never gained traction and he’s expected to sign elsewhere.

Second Tier

Shane Bieber (31)

Bieber is technically weighing a $16MM player option versus a $4MM buyout. It’s an obvious decision for him to opt out. The former Cy Young winner signed a two-year deal to return to Cleveland when he was halfway through rehab from April 2024 Tommy John surgery. The recovery went mostly as expected. He had a brief setback in June when he was scratched from a rehab start with elbow soreness. That prevented him from returning to an MLB mound before the trade deadline, but he was back on a rehab assignment by July.

The Blue Jays were encouraged enough by his form to give up a legitimate pitching prospect, Khal Stephen, to acquire him. It paid off, as Bieber turned in a 3.57 ERA over seven regular season starts. He averaged nearly six innings per start while striking out 23.3% of opponents against an excellent 4.4% walk rate. He has taken the ball three times in the postseason, allowing seven runs (six earned) over 12 1/3 frames. His 15:3 strikeout-to-walk ratio is excellent, but he has given up a home run in each of his past two starts. He’ll make at least one and potentially two starts during the World Series.

Bieber is unlikely to return to the Cy Young heights he reached in 2020, but he looks like a high-end #3 arm. While the ill-timed surgery has prevented him from racking up many innings over the past two seasons, some teams will probably view that at as a standalone injury which is now behind him. He will hit free agency without draft compensation. The midseason trade rendered him ineligible for a qualifying offer.

Zac Gallen (30)

Gallen had an up-and-down season that concluded with a 4.83 earned run average over 192 innings. His 21.5% strikeout rate was the lowest of his career, and he struggled with the home run ball for the first time in four seasons. It’s not an encouraging walk year, but he’s only 30 years old and is a few months removed from having a case for a $150MM contract. While he’s not going to get there now, he should be able to land a two-year deal with an opt-out if no team is willing to pay nine figures. The Diamondbacks are expected to make him a qualifying offer.

Lucas Giolito (30)

Giolito lost the 2024 season to internal brace surgery. He began this year on the injured list after suffering a Spring Training hamstring strain. He posted an ERA near 5.00 in May before settling in as a productive mid-rotation arm over the next few months. Giolito turned in a 3.03 earned run average across 20 starts and 113 innings from June onward.

A sub-20% strikeout rate raised some doubts about the sustainability of that kind of run prevention. Still, he looked like a reliable third starter who would do well on the open market once he crossed the 140-inning threshold to convert a $14MM team option into a $19MM mutual provision. Luis Severino had a similar profile and commanded three years and $67MM with an opt-out after declining a qualifying offer last winter. While that contract was an overpay to get a free agent starter to pitch at Sutter Health Park, a three-year deal in the mid-$50MM range is still preferable to accepting a QO.

Then came another injury. Giolito suffered flexor irritation and a bone issue in his throwing elbow at the end of the regular season. He did not make the Wild Card roster and would not have been available even if the Red Sox had made a deep postseason run. Giolito told Chris Cotillo of MassLive that there’s no ligament damage and the issue should heal with rest. He’s a borderline QO candidate.

Michael King (31)

King will decline his end of a $15MM mutual option with the Padres. He’ll be paid a $3.75MM buyout and become a free agent. A few months ago, he looked like he’d find a nine-figure deal. That’s tougher to envision after injuries interrupted what had been an excellent start to his walk year.

The righty began his season with a 2.59 ERA while striking out 28% of opponents through his first 10 starts. He went on the injured list at the end of May with what the team initially viewed as a minor shoulder injury. That turned out to be far more of a hindrance than expected. It turned out to be a nerve issue that cost him three months. He came back in mid-August, started one game, then went back on the injured list with left knee inflammation. King returned a few weeks later and made four starts in September but was nowhere near as effective as he’d been early in the year. He didn’t make it beyond five innings in any of those appearances and gave up 10 runs in 15 2/3 innings.

King was healthy enough for the Padres to carry him on their playoff roster. The team clearly didn’t trust him, though, as they turned to a diminished Yu Darvish to start a must-win Game 3 of their Wild Card Series while keeping King in the bullpen. Darvish gave up two runs in one inning to take the loss. King tossed a scoreless inning of relief, striking out three of four batters in his only playoff action. It now remains to be seen if teams are willing to chance a four- or five-year contract on a pitcher who looked like a high-end #2 starter a few months ago. A two-year deal with an opt-out isn’t out of the question.

Brandon Woodruff (33)

On talent alone, Woodruff belongs in the first tier. Teams that are only concerned with chasing short-term upside could have him alongside Valdez as the two best pitchers in the class. Woodruff isn’t going to command the same long-term contract because of his age and durability questions.

Woodruff finished the season on the injured list with a lat strain. He’d missed all of 2024 and the first half of this past season rehabbing from a shoulder surgery. In between, he was one of the best pitchers on the planet. He turned in a 3.20 ERA with a 32% strikeout rate across 12 starts. His 93 MPH average fastball is down nearly three ticks from his pre-surgery level, which is an obvious concern, but that didn’t prevent him from dominating before the lat strain. Teams are always on the hunt for playoff-caliber starters and Woodruff has that kind of ceiling.

The two-time All-Star will decline his end of a $20MM mutual option with Milwaukee. The Brewers should make him a qualifying offer, which he’s expected to reject. His camp could take aim at the three-year, $75MM contract which Nathan Eovaldi received last winter. Teams might have enough pause about the shoulder to keep him at two years, but he should pull at least $20MM per season.

Effective Late-Career Arms

Chris Bassitt (37)

Bassitt has been a steady, durable mid-rotation arm for the past six seasons. That includes a 3.89 ERA in 100 appearances over his three-year deal with the Blue Jays. He allowed just under four earned runs per nine across 170 1/3 innings during the regular season. Bassitt missed the Division Series with lower back tightness but returned for the ALCS roster. He tossed 2 2/3 perfect frames with three strikeouts in a setup capacity. He’ll be limited to a two-year deal at age 37 but could secure more than $15MM annually. The Blue Jays cannot make him a qualifying offer, as he received one from the Mets after the 2022 season.

Merrill Kelly (37)

Kelly is probably in a similar contractual range as Bassitt, though he could command a few million dollars more on an annual basis. He’s a rock solid #3 starter coming off a 3.52 ERA over 32 starts between the Diamondbacks and Rangers. Kelly posted solid strikeout (22.4%) and walk (6.4%) rates despite sitting around 92 MPH with his fastball. He has rebounded brilliantly from 2020 thoracic outlet surgery. A shoulder strain cost him a few months last season, but he stayed healthy this year and has reached 30+ starts in three of the past four seasons. The midseason trade renders him ineligible for the qualifying offer.

Max Scherzer (41)

Scherzer’s one-year, $15.5MM free agent deal with the Blue Jays has had mixed results. A recurring nerve injury in his right thumb sent him to the injured list after one start. Scherzer was out until late June. He returned to post a 5.19 ERA over 17 starts. The strikeout and walk profile remains solid, but he gave up more than two home runs per nine innings. Scherzer was a healthy scratch in the ALDS but returned to the roster for the Championship Series. He went 5 2/3 innings of two-run ball in a Game 4 start to pick up the win and even the ALCS at two games apiece. One could argue that start alone justified the signing even if Scherzer’s regular season was surely frustrating for the future Hall of Famer and the Blue Jays alike. He’ll get another one-year deal but might land in the $10-12MM range this time.

Justin Verlander (43)

Verlander signed a one-year, $15MM with the Giants last winter. He was coming off a 5.48 ERA over 17 starts that had gotten him left off Houston’s playoff roster. Verlander’s tenure in San Francisco started slowly, as he posted a 4.70 ERA through the All-Star Break. He turned in a 2.99 mark with a 21.5% strikeout rate in the second half. His fastball still lands around 94 MPH on average as he enters his age-43 season. Verlander isn’t going to win another Cy Young, but he’s a capable mid-rotation performer whose wealth of experience is surely welcome for younger pitching staffs. He’ll sign another one-year deal that could approach $20MM.

Contractual Options

Jack Flaherty (30)

Flaherty is weighing a $20MM player option on his deal with the Tigers. He’s coming off a 4.64 ERA over 31 starts. It’s the second time in the past three years that Flaherty allowed nearly five earned runs per nine innings. He has had issues keeping the ball in the yard in consecutive seasons. While that might point towards him opting in, there’s a good chance he tests the market anyway based on his youth and swing-and-miss potential.

The righty punched out 27.6% of opponents behind a strong 11.3% swinging strike rate. He’d fanned nearly 30% of batters faced last season. He’s 13th in MLB with 382 strikeouts over the past two seasons. Flaherty has also avoided the injured list in three straight years despite reports that the Yankees pulled out of a 2024 deadline deal after flagging something in his medicals. The combination of durability and swing-and-miss upside might get him a three- or four-year contract. If Flaherty opts out, the Tigers would need to decide whether to issue a qualifying offer.

Shota Imanaga (32)

The Cubs have a three-year, $57.75MM option on Imanaga’s services. If they decline, Imanaga has the right to opt out of the remaining two years and $30.5MM on his deal. If both sides decline their end of the option structure, he’ll be a free agent. The Cubs would then need to decide whether to make the qualifying offer or be content to let Imanaga walk.

The longstanding assumption has been that the team would exercise the three-year option. Imanaga was fantastic in 2024 and carried a 3.08 ERA over 20 starts through the end of August this year. Then he got torched in September (6.51 ERA) and gave up six runs over 6 2/3 innings during two postseason starts. He gave up at least one home run in each of his last nine regular season starts, as well as in both playoff outings. Imanaga surrendered an MLB-worst 20 longballs in the second half.

That’s likely to continue to be a problem. Imanaga’s fastball sits around 90 MPH and he’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher. After striking out more than a quarter of batters faced during his rookie season, that dropped to a slightly below-average 20.6% mark this year. There are a lot of red flags, but he also owns a 3.28 ERA over 318 MLB innings in the last two seasons.

John Means (33)

Cleveland signed Means to a one-year deal with a $6MM club option that could climb to $7.5MM based on next year’s innings totals. He was coming off his second UCL surgery in three years and spent all of this season rehabbing.

Freddy Peralta (30)

Peralta will not be a free agent. The Brewers are going to exercise an $8MM option. They’ll entertain trade possibilities but could hold their ace for his final season of club control after advancing to the NLCS.

Colin Rea (35)

The Cubs hold a $6MM option on Rea that comes with a $750K buyout. That’s a reasonable price for a reliable swingman who turned in a 3.95 ERA over 159 1/3 innings this past season. If the Cubs surprisingly cut Rea loose, he should be able to find a similar contract on the open market.

Jose Urquidy (31)

The Tigers guaranteed Urquidy $1MM as he completed rehab from Tommy John surgery. He made two late-season relief appearances. They can bring him back on a $4MM option that could climb to $7MM based on escalators.

Middle/Back of the Rotation

Adrian Houser (33)

Houser was on a minor league deal with the Rangers at the beginning of this year. He opted out and signed a big league deal with the White Sox in late May. Houser went on an excellent two-month run in Chicago, turning in a 2.10 ERA through 68 2/3 innings. That was enough to make him a legitimate deadline trade chip, as they sent him to the Rays for a three-player return headlined by former top prospect Curtis Mead. The magic wore off after the deal, as Houser struggled to a 4.79 ERA in 56 1/3 frames with Tampa Bay.

Middling finish aside, the righty is in much better position than he was at this time last winter. Houser is a lock for a big league deal and could get two years to pitch in a swing role. He doesn’t miss many bats but gets a lot of ground-balls behind a sinker that sits north of 95 MPH on average.

Zack Littell (30)

Littell has gone from nondescript middle reliever to viable fourth starter since the Rays built him up halfway through the 2023 season. He tied for 11th in MLB with 186 2/3 innings this year and has managed consecutive sub-4.00 ERA showings. He pounds the strike zone but has fringe stuff that leads to middling strikeout rates and a lot of home runs. Only Jake Irvin gave up more home runs than Littell’s 36 this year.

The Reds nevertheless valued Littell’s durability and strike-throwing enough to give up a legitimate pitching prospect (Adam Serwinowski) to acquire him at the deadline. Littell just turned 30 and should be able to pull a multi-year deal. There’s a chance he gets a three-year contract from a team that wants to lock in some stability at the back of the staff.

Tyler Mahle (31)

Mahle had a sterling 2.18 ERA across 16 starts for the Rangers this year. However, he only struck out 19.1% of opponents while working with less impressive stuff than he showed early in his career with the Reds. Mahle averages 92 MPH after sitting 93-94 a few years ago. The drop-off is presumably tied to his history of arm injuries, which continued this year.

Mahle suffered a rotator cuff strain that cost him three months between mid-June and September. Shoulder issues had prematurely ended his season in both 2022 and ’24, and he underwent Tommy John surgery in May 2023. Mahle technically finished this season healthy for the first time in four years, as he was able to return to make two starts in September. He has only made 51 appearances over the past four years and might be limited to one-year deals as a result.

Nick Martinez (35)

Martinez was last offseason’s most surprising qualifying offer recipient. Not coincidentally, he was the only player to accept the QO and play out the season on a $21.05MM salary. The veteran swingman spent most of the season in Cincinnati’s rotation, working to a 4.45 ERA across 165 2/3 innings. His 17% strikeout rate was his lowest since he returned to MLB four years ago. Martinez doesn’t have eye-popping stuff, but he has plus control and reliably stays off barrels.

The lack of swing-and-miss and Martinez’s age could cap him at one year, but it wouldn’t be surprising if he finds another two-year contract. Teams have valued his willingness to bounce between the rotation and bullpen at any point within the season. Martinez has also been ultra durable, avoiding the injured list entirely since his MLB comeback in 2022.

NPB/KBO fliers

Foster Griffin (30)

Griffin is a former first-round pick of the Royals who made seven MLB appearances between 2020-22. He has spent the past three seasons in Japan, combining for a 2.57 ERA across 315 2/3 innings. Griffin missed time this past season with what MLBTR has learned was a bone bruise in his lower body. He’s expected to have a normal offseason and intends to pursue an MLB return. Griffin didn’t have overpowering stuff during his initial run in affiliated ball, but he’s coming off a 1.62 ERA while striking out a quarter of opponents. He could command a big league deal to compete for a back-of-the-rotation spot.

Cody Ponce (32)

Ponce is pitching with the Korea Baseball Organization’s Hanwha Eagles this year. It’s possible he explores MLB opportunities once the offseason begins. Ponce posted a near-6.00 ERA over 20 big league appearances with the Pirates between 2020-21. He spent the next three seasons pitching to mediocre results in Japan before signing in Korea. Ponce had a phenomenal KBO season, going 17-1 with a 1.89 ERA while striking out more than 36% of opponents. It’s an even better season than Erick Fedde had when he won the KBO MVP award in 2023.

Fedde parlayed that into a two-year, $15MM contract with the White Sox. Ponce is a year older but is a former second-round pick whose stuff has ticked up in Korea. One evaluator with whom MLBTR spoke credited Ponce with a mid-90s fastball to headline a four-pitch mix. It’s not out of the question that he gets a multi-year deal that approaches or exceeds the Fedde contract.

Kona Takahashi (29)*

The Seibu Lions are expected to post Takahashi this offseason. The right-hander has a 3.39 ERA in nearly 1200 innings at Japan’s top level. He’s coming off a 3.04 mark over 148 innings. While the run prevention is solid, Takahashi doesn’t have the bat-missing stuff that’d generate huge big league interest. He struck out just 14% of opponents this past season. An MLB deal is possible, but he’s unlikely to command more than a couple million dollars. There are some similarities between Takahashi and Shinnosuke Ogasawara, who signed a two-year, $3.5MM deal and pitched in a swing role for the Nationals.

Reclamation/Swing Types

Walker Buehler (31)

The Red Sox signed Buehler to a $21.05MM free agent deal last offseason. They ignored his terrible regular season results and placed a lot of emphasis on his two good outings in the World Series. That predictably didn’t work out, and they ended up releasing him by the end of August. Buehler managed 13 2/3 innings of one-run ball after signing with the Phillies for the season’s final couple weeks, though that came with an 8:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He finished the season with an ERA just under 5.00 with poor strikeout, walk, and home run rates. Buehler still has a 94 MPH fastball and a track record that should get him a big league deal at a much lower salary than he made this past season. Some teams could be intrigued to see if he can find a new gear in the bullpen, but Buehler may prefer to sign with a club that’ll offer a rotation opportunity.

Griffin Canning (30)

Canning was one of the Mets’ more reliable starters early in the season, turning in a 3.77 ERA behind a 51% ground-ball rate over 16 starts. Unfortunately, he ruptured his right Achilles against the Braves at the end of June. The Mets never released a specific timeline beyond the obvious news that he was headed for season-ending surgery. It seems unlikely that he’ll be ready for Opening Day, which would be nine months removed from the injury. Canning could try for a cheap, slightly backloaded two-year deal.

Nestor Cortes (31)

Cortes, an All-Star with the Yankees in 2022, has battled forearm issues for the past two seasons. He only made eight starts (with rough results) between the Brewers and Padres this year. Cortes finished the season on the injured list and underwent surgery that threatens his availability for 2026. He’s probably looking at a one-year guarantee with a ’27 club option so a signing team can gauge his recovery.

Zach Eflin (32)

Eflin looked good over three starts before suffering a lat strain. He missed a month, then was rocked for a 7.16 ERA over nine starts before returning to the injured list with a back issue. He came back in late July, started twice more, and was shut back down. Eflin underwent season-ending back surgery in August. The Orioles announced that the recovery could take anywhere from four to eight months, so it’s not a given that he’ll be ready for the start of Spring Training.

Jon Gray (34)

Gray pitched six times this year, all in relief. He finished the season on the injured list and was diagnosed with thoracic outlet syndrome. It’s unclear if he’ll require surgery that could cost him most of the ’26 campaign.

Germán Márquez (31)

Márquez once overcame the challenges of pitching in Colorado to post upper mid-rotation numbers. That hasn’t been the case since he underwent Tommy John surgery that cost him most of the 2023-24 seasons. The righty was bombed for a 6.70 ERA with a career-low 14% strikeout rate this year. He pitched just as poorly on the road as he did at Coors Field. Márquez still has a 95 MPH heater, so perhaps he’ll find a cheap big league deal from a team that thinks he’s salvageable with some repertoire changes.

Dustin May (28)

Once the sport’s top pitching prospect, May underwent a pair of significant elbow surgeries early in his career. He missed all of last year after requiring emergency esophageal surgery following a fluky but life-threatening throat rupture when a piece of lettuce got stuck in his throat. May thankfully was able to return to the mound this year and managed a career-high 132 1/3 innings across 25 appearances. He posted a near-5.00 ERA and ended the season on the shelf with elbow neuritis.

Jordan Montgomery (33)

Montgomery gave up a 6.23 ERA over 25 appearances during his first season with the Diamondbacks. He was blasted publicly by owner Ken Kendrick last winter, then blew out in Spring Training and underwent Tommy John surgery. Arizona dumped part of his contract on the Brewers at the deadline but he’ll probably look for a fresh start as a free agent. If he’s expected back in June or July, he could get a big league deal as a buy-low flier.

Michael Soroka (28)

Soroka has flashed intriguing swing-and-miss stuff but has yet to show that he can hold up as a starter. He fanned more than a quarter of opponents over 16 starts with the Nationals. His velocity wilted as the deadline approached. The Cubs looked past that and acquired him, but Soroka exited his team debut with a shoulder strain. He returned in mid-September as a reliever and finished the season with a 4.52 ERA across 89 2/3 innings.

Depth/Innings Eaters

Tyler Anderson (36)

Anderson wrapped up his three-year, $39MM free agent contract with the Angels by turning in a 4.56 ERA across 26 starts. He allowed 4.53 earned runs per nine over his three seasons in Anaheim. The southpaw struck out only 17.5% of opponents while averaging 89 MPH on his fastball. He missed the final month with an oblique strain and is likely looking at a one-year deal in the $3-5MM range.

Aaron Civale (31)

In a season divided between three teams, Civale turned in a 4.85 ERA across 102 innings. He pitched poorly as a starter with both Milwaukee and the White Sox but found some late-season success out of the bullpen with the Cubs.

Patrick Corbin (36)

Corbin took the ball 31 times and provided the Rangers 155 1/3 innings on a $1.1MM free agent deal. He managed decent results early in the season but a rough last two months left him with a 4.40 ERA with a 20% strikeout rate. It’s a better season than he had with the Nationals in 2024, so he could earn a boost to a $3-4MM salary if he comes back for his age-36 season.

Kyle Hendricks (36)

Hendricks was noncommittal on whether he planned to continue pitching. The soft-tossing sinkerballer is coming off a 4.76 ERA over 164 2/3 innings for the Angels on a $2.5MM free agent deal.

Michael Lorenzen (34)

Lorenzen started 26 of 27 appearances for the Royals this past season. He worked to a 4.64 ERA with a league average 21% strikeout rate and a solid 6.4% walk percentage. Lorenzen should fare the best of the pitchers in this tier because he sits around 94 MPH and missed bats at a near league average clip.

Miles Mikolas (37)

Mikolas played out his final season in St. Louis as an innings-eating fifth starter. He posted a 4.84 ERA over 31 appearances. Like most of the pitchers in this tier, he’s a durable strike-thrower who doesn’t miss many bats and gives up a lot of home runs.

Chris Paddack (30)

Paddack was sitting on a 4.95 ERA in 21 starts when the Twins traded him to Detroit at the deadline. The buy-low move for the Tigers busted, as the righty was pushed out of the rotation after five starts. He finished the regular season in relief and was a healthy scratch in the playoffs. Paddack ended the year with a 5.35 ERA and a career-worst 16.7% strikeout rate in 158 innings.

Martín Pérez (35)

Pérez managed a solid 3.54 ERA over 56 innings for the White Sox on a one-year deal. Injuries kept him from soaking up the innings that the Sox had wanted, though. Pérez missed a few months with a flexor issue and landed back on the shelf in September with a shoulder strain.

Jose Quintana (37)

Quintana made 24 starts and worked to a 3.96 ERA over 131 2/3 innings for the Brewers. He’s a capable back-end starter but didn’t find much interest last offseason, when he was coming off a 3.75 mark in 31 starts for the Mets. Another one-year deal between $4-6MM seems likely.

Tomoyuki Sugano (36)

Sugano’s first season in the U.S. was a disappointment. The former NPB star took the ball 30 times but gave up a 4.64 ERA while striking out fewer than 16% of opponents. He throws strikes but doesn’t have the stuff he did at his peak in Japan. Sugano isn’t going to approach last winter’s $15MM guarantee on a one-year deal this time around.

Potential Minor League Deals

Paul Blackburn (32)
Carlos Carrasco (39)
Alex Cobb (38)
Nabil Crismatt (31)
Anthony DeSclafani (36)
Erick Fedde (33)
Austin Gomber (32)
Kyle Hart (33) ^
Andrew Heaney (35)
Kenta Maeda (38) **
Triston McKenzie (28)
Wade Miley (39)
Cal Quantrill (31)
Marcus Stroman (35)
José Ureña (34)
Bryse Wilson (28)
Ryan Yarbrough (34)

Note: Charlie Morton is technically a free agent. It’s widely expected that he’ll retire after signing a ceremonial deal to make a final appearance with the Braves on the last day of the regular season. He has yet to make an official announcement, however.

* Expected to be made available via posting system
^ Assumes buyout of club option
** Plans to pitch in Japan in 2026

Poll: Will The White Sox Trade Andrew Benintendi This Winter?

By Nick Deeds | October 23, 2025 at 5:23pm CDT

After winning 19 more times in 2025 than they did last season, the White Sox are showing some signs of life for the first time in a while. The beginnings of a young core centered around top prospects Colson Montgomery and Kyle Teel, both of whom impressed in their MLB debuts this year, as well as Rule 5 pick Shane Smith, appear to be forming. Controllable pieces like Miguel Vargas, Davis Martin, Sean Burke, and Wikelman Gonzalez have the look of what could be a solid supporting cast, as well.

Even with those steps forward acknowledged, however, it must be understood that the White Sox remain a long way from contention. Even with all of that improvement over a historically disastrous 2024 campaign, they still lost more than 100 games for the third consecutive season. They finished the season a whopping 28 games back of the Guardians for the division lead and a 2-2 record in March is the only thing preventing them from having lost more games than they won in every month of this year’s campaign. A 28-37 record after the All-Star break was certainly an improvement over a 32-65 first half, but even that second half record was a 92-loss pace. They allowed the 10th most runs in the majors this year while scoring the fourth fewest.

In other words, contention in 2026 remains a pipe dream on the south side of Chicago even after this season’s improvements. That surely means another year of prioritizing a farm system that has fallen into the middle of the pack on both ESPN and MLB Pipeline’s farm system rankings after the graduations of Montgomery, Teel, and Edgar Quero. Unfortunately for the White Sox, they’re running out of tradable assets. A Luis Robert Jr. trade has been speculated upon for years now, but appears to be just as much of a non-starter now as it was over the summer. Mike Tauchman’s impressive 2025 campaign could make him an attractive target for a team in need of outfield help on the cheap, but no journeyman outfielder headed into his age-35 season should be expected to bring back a big return. Players like Vargas and Lenyn Sosa won’t be free agents until after the 2029 season, a point by which the Sox are surely hoping to be back in contention.

With so few resources through which they can upgrade their farm system on the trade market, might outfielder Andrew Benintendi actually prove to be their best asset on the trade market? Benintendi is coming off his best season in a White Sox uniform, though that bar is quite low. He hit .240/.307/.431 (103 wRC+) in 116 games this year with 20 home runs, an 8.5% walk rate, and a 17.4% strikeout rate. Poor defense in left field limited Benintendi’s overall value, but he was still worth 1.0 bWAR in less than a full season of work. Heading into his age-31 season, it’s not completely impossible to imagine Benintendi building on last year’s performance and getting back into the 110 wRC+ range he sat comfortably in for his career prior to arriving in Chicago.

If Benintendi were a free agent this winter, an outfield-needy team without much money to spend surely would have interest in his services for 2025. The problem, then, is Benintendi’s contract. $31MM guaranteed over the next two seasons is hardly the most onerous contract out there, but it’s still far more money than the veteran’s production has been worth, and no team is likely to be eager to take that deal of Chicago’s hands, much less surrender significant prospect talent for it.

With that being said, the White Sox have reportedly expressed willingness as recently as this summer to pay down some of Benintendi’s salary in order to facilitate a deal. To get a meaningful return for him, the Sox would surely need to cover the vast majority of his salary for the next two years. That might not be as unreasonable as it would seem, given that RosterResource projects the club for a payroll of just $45MM next year as things stand. That figure doesn’t include the $20MM club option on Luis Robert Jr.’s services next year, but even so, the White Sox should have plenty of money to work with this winter. Essentially buying a better prospect return from a club acquiring Benintendi by paying down his salary could be the best use of those resources.

With that said, there are some obstacles to that plan. For one thing, the White Sox have shown a reluctance to sell low on their players, as shown in their handling of Robert. Another problem could be that the best fits for Benintendi might be the team’s division rivals. Small-market clubs in significant need of outfield help would be the perfect trade partners for a deal like this, but both the Royals and Guardians reside in the AL Central alongside the White Sox, and it’s unclear if the the team would be willing to pay Benintendi to play for their direct opponents for the next two seasons.

The Pirates and Rockies are two other clubs that could be at least plausible fits for a Benintendi trade, but the market would surely be much softer if Cleveland and Kansas City aren’t involved. Another option could be to simply accept little to no return for Benintendi and try to offload as much of his salary as possible, though that wouldn’t do much for the team’s long-term outlook given their existing financial flexibility.

How do MLBTR readers think the White Sox offseason will play out with regards to Benintendi? Will they be able to leverage his decent 2025 season in order to get some type of return for him this winter? Will they resort to trading him in a salary dump to get a portion of his deal off the books while they can? Or will they hold onto him and hope for improvement in 2026? Have your say in the poll below:

Offseason Outlook: Minnesota Twins

By Steve Adams | October 23, 2025 at 4:27pm CDT

The Twins gutted their roster at the trade deadline, fired their manager after the season and still haven't divulged any information on their new limited partners who bought a heavy share of the club. To call morale "low" among fans would be an egregious understatement, and the looming offseason doesn't offer much reason for optimism.

Guaranteed Contracts

Byron Buxton, OF: $45MM through 2028
Pablo Lopez, RHP: $43MM through 2027

Other Financial Commitments

$30MM owed to Astros through 2028 as part of Carlos Correa trade ($10MM annually)

Total 2026 commitments: $46.5MM
Total long-term commitments: $118MM through 2028

Option Decisions

Justin Topa, RHP: $2MM club option with $225K buyout (Topa remains under control via arbitration if Twins decline)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Genesis Cabrera (5.149): $1.4MM
Ryan Jeffers (5.089): $6.6MM
Justin Topa (5.044): $1.7MM (Twins hold a $2MM club option with a $225K buyout)
Michael Tonkin (5.044): $1.4MM
Bailey Ober (4.093): $4.6MM
Joe Ryan (4.033): $5.8MM
Trevor Larnach (4.014): $4.7MM
Royce Lewis (3.142): $3MM
Anthony Misiewicz (3.082): $1.1MM
Cole Sands (3.017): $1.3MM

Non-tender candidates: Cabrera, Tonkin, Larnach, Misiewicz

Free Agents

Christian Vazquez

The Twins were in contention for much of the season's first half, even rattling off a 13-game winning streak from early May into the middle portion of the month. When things went south and the club fell below .500 with the deadline approaching, Minnesota emerged as a clear seller. It was originally expected to be a minor sale of pending free agents like Willi Castro, Chris Paddack and Harrison Bader. Instead, Minnesota traded a staggering 11 players, including several who were controlled beyond the current season -- in some instances (e.g. Louis Varland) as far out as 2030.

Whether that was due to the front office acting opportunistically in a market that lacked many pure sellers or (more likely) because ownership mandated further payroll cuts after being unable to find a buyer for the team due to a reported $400MM+ in outstanding debt, Minnesota's stunning deadline fire sale set the stage for what feels like a notable step back that will continue into the forthcoming offseason.

The large-scale changes didn't stop at the deadline. Manager Rocco Baldelli was the sacrificial lamb at season's end, getting fired with a year to go on his contract. Baldelli's tenure was far from perfect, as the Twins have had their share of disappointing seasons (including 2024's September collapse), but no manager could have succeeded in the wake of such a dramatic teardown, which included shipping out the five best relievers in what had been an excellent bullpen.

The Twins' offseason, accordingly, commences with a managerial search that has already seen them tied to names like former Mariners skipper Scott Servais, Red Sox bench coach Ramon Vazquez, and old friends Derek Shelton, James Rowson and (stretching much further back) Nick Punto. Change is coming in the Twins' dugout, but there's also still a fair bit of turnover possible on the roster itself.

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