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Poll: Will The Royals Trade Seth Lugo?

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The Royals’ 2025 season has not gone as they surely hoped it would after they surprised the baseball world with a playoff berth in 2024 and invested heavily into the team over the offseason. While they entered June over .500, a brutal 8-18 swoon last month left the team very abruptly buried in the AL playoff picture. Their 40-47 record leaves them with a 14-game deficit in the AL Central that already seems all but impossible to overcome, and even their Wild Card positioning leaves them 5.5 games back of a playoff spot. A rotator cuff strain sidelined Cole Ragans last month, and the loss of the club’s lefty ace will make it even harder for them to turn things around.

All of that has left the Royals looking like a potential deadline seller. A closer look at the club’s roster reveals very few short-term assets who would bring back a significant haul on the trade market, however. Hunter Harvey is injured, while Cavan Biggio and Mark Canha have both been well below average hitters this year. That leaves right-hander Seth Lugo as the only player on the roster who can depart for free agency this winter who could bring back a notable return for the Royals.

There’s few contenders who wouldn’t benefit from adding Lugo to their rotation. The right-hander was the runner-up for the AL Cy Young award last year with a dominant season, and he’s kept the good times rolling in 2025 with a sparkling 2.74 ERA in 15 starts. That’s the sort of front-of-the-rotation, surefire playoff starter that contenders dream of adding to their rotation mix, at least on paper. If Lugo could bring back an exciting return for the Royals, particularly an MLB-ready return, then it could make sense to sell the righty in order to maximize the 2026-30 seasons, after which point superstar Bobby Witt Jr. will have his first opportunity to opt-out of his extension and test free agency.

As clearcut as the argument for dealing Lugo may sound, however, there are real reasons to think the Royals may hesitate. For one thing, a monster return for Lugo is hardly guaranteed. As strong as his raw run prevention numbers have been this year, his peripherals tell a different story. The veteran’s strikeout rate has ticked slightly downward, his walk rate has jumped up to 8.0% after sitting at 5.6% last year, and his otherworldly ability to keep the ball in the park last year appears to have been a single-season mirage. With a 4.18 FIP and 4.10 SIERA, it’s possible rival clubs will value Lugo as more of a mid-rotation starter than a recent Cy Young candidate.

His value is further decreased by the $15MM player option he holds for the 2026 season. That’s a figure Lugo would certainly be able to beat in free agency if healthy, meaning that he’s very likely to opt out unless he suffers an injury, at which point the acquiring club would be on the hook for the full price and likely get minimal production. Similar contractual situations have caused issues in trade talks in the past. Both the Cubs and Yankees have entertained trade offers on Marcus Stroman in recent years but found difficulties getting much of a market for his services due to “poison pill” contract options, and even future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer had to waive his ability to opt out of the 2024 campaign for the Rangers to be willing to acquire him from the Mets during the summer of 2023. It’s not at all difficult to believe interested teams could have similar reservations regarding Lugo.

If the return for Lugo isn’t robust, it’s not hard to imagine the Royals just keeping the veteran. While Witt is young and under long-term control, other pieces of the club’s core like Michael Wacha, Carlos Estevez, and Salvador Perez aren’t exactly getting any younger. Even younger players like Jonathan India and Kris Bubic aren’t far from the end of their team control windows, and that could leave the Royals motivated to try to make the 2026 season count. Keeping Lugo in the fold would help that goal, and while it’s typically unlikely for a small market club to keep a star player in free agency, that may not be the case in this instance.

With Lugo eligible for the Qualifying Offer this winter, it’s not impossible to imagine him either sticking around on that one-year pact if it’s offered to him or the sides using it as a jumping off point to work out an extension. The Royals typically wouldn’t be expected to have the sort of financial muscle needed to retain a pitcher of Lugo’s caliber, but the veteran turns 36 this November and would likely be limited to short-term offers in free agency even if he isn’t attached to the Qualifying Offer. Should Kansas City extend him the QO, it could further depress his ability to land a big contract. If the Royals like their odds of keeping Lugo around after this year, it would be understandable if they decided not to trade him.

How do MLBTR readers think the Royals will ultimately handle Lugo? Will he be traded this summer, or will they hold onto him and hope to keep him around longer term? Have your say in the poll below:

Trade Deadline Outlook: Washington Nationals

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MLBTR's new team-by-team deadline preview series (available to Front Office subscribers) continues with a look at the Nationals, who are on pace for their sixth consecutive losing season.  The Nats were hanging in there with a 28-30 record at May's end, but an 11-game losing streak led to a brutal 7-19 record in June, all but officially ending Washington's hopes of an end to its lengthy rebuild process.  While the team's few cornerstone players are breaking out, pretty much the rest of the roster has underachieved, leaving president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo selling once more heading into the July 31 deadline.

Record: 35-50 (0.1% playoff probability, per FanGraphs)

Sell Mode

Impending free agents: Kyle Finnegan, Michael Soroka, Josh Bell, Amed Rosario, Andrew Chafin, Paul DeJong, Derek Law

Finnegan was an All-Star in 2024 and drew attention at last year's trade deadline, though he somewhat surprisingly ended up staying put.  It could be that the Nationals had too high an asking price, or teams had doubts about Finnegan's shaky advanced metrics, or perhaps a combination of both factors ended up keeping Finnegan in the District for the remainder of 2024.  As it happened, Finnegan's performance went south in the second half, and the Nats cut him last winter by non-tendering the reliever instead of a projected $8.6MM arbitration salary.  However, the club shaved some cash off that number by then re-signing Finnegan to a one-year, $6MM deal (with $4MM in deferrals).

Now in his sixth season in D.C., Finnegan has again been pretty solid at the back of the Nats' pen, securing 18 of 23 save opportunities and posting a 2.61 ERA over 31 innings.  Finnegan doesn't fit the typical closer model with his below-average strikeout rates, and while his 96.1mph fastball velocity this season is still impressive, it is also notably slower than his 97.2mph average velo from 2024.  On the plus side, Finnegan's hard-hit ball rate is a strong 37.1% --- a massive turn-around considering few pitchers in the entire sport allowed more hard contact than he did over the 2022-24 seasons.

Washington will surely get more calls about Finnegan this July, and the Nationals may feel more compelled to swing a deal with him just a few months removed from free agency.  It isn't a reach to view Finnegan as a fit on almost any roster, given his low remaining salary, how many contenders need bullpen help, and his experience in high-leverage situations.  The Cubs reportedly had interest in Finnegan this past winter and the Yankees, Phillies, and Dodgers were all linked to Finnegan's market prior to last season's trade deadline, so these teams in particular stand out as potential candidates.

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Poll: Should The Cubs Trade For A Bat This Summer?

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The Cubs are one of the better teams in the National League this year. Their 50-35 record leaves them tied with the Phillies for the second seed in the NL, and they’ve led their division since April 4 without interruption. Much of that can be attributed to an excellent offense headlined by the offseason addition of Kyle Tucker and the breakout of Pete Crow-Armstrong. With that being said, they lost some steam in the month of June after posting a 13-13 record and watching their lead in the NL Central shrink to just two games.

Between their strong start to the season and their fading lead in the division, Chicago figures to be one of the more aggressive buyers in the game this summer. Most of the focus has been on starting pitching, and for good reason. Shota Imanaga remains a steady front-of-the-rotation arm and Matthew Boyd has been a revelation this year with a 2.65 ERA in 17 starts, but the loss of Justin Steele at the top of the Cubs’ rotation has been felt deeply. Jameson Taillon (85 ERA+), Colin Rea (87 ERA+), and Cade Horton (79 ERA+) have all pitched to middling results even by the standards of a back-of-the-rotation arm, while Ben Brown’s ERA ballooned to 6.13 before he was optioned to Triple-A upon Imanaga’s return from a hamstring strain last week.

Considering that Boyd’s 98 2/3 innings of work is already his highest total since 2019, adding a rotation arm or two is a slam-dunk for this team. That obvious need could be overshadowing another major hole for the Cubs, however. It’s somewhat bold to suggest the team that leads all of baseball in position player fWAR (18.9) and has the third most potent offense in baseball (116 wRC+) could be a bat short, but Chicago has gotten -0.3 fWAR from the third base position this year. That’s the worst figure in baseball, and the team’s 62 wRC+ at the hot corner is ahead of only the Reds and Marlins. Patrick Mooney of The Athletic made a strong case for the Cubs to add another hitter to the lineup earlier this week, and third base is the natural position for Chicago to upgrade.

2023 first-rounder Matt Shaw is currently holding down the for at the position. Grades on Shaw’s defense are mixed, as he has -1 Outs Above Average but +5 Defensive Runs Saved. That latter figure trails only Ke’Bryan Hayes, Ernie Clement, and Caleb Durbin this year. Even if the more optimistic view of Shaw’s defense is taken, however, his offense has been lackluster with a .221/.305/.315 (80 wRC+) in 203 plate appearances this year. He was optioned to the minors for about a month earlier this season, but even since returning his 89 wRC+ is well-below league average. The club’s internal options behind Shaw are uninspiring at best. Vidal Brujan has a wRC+ of 9 this year in a bench role with the team, meaning he’s been 91 below league average offensively. Jon Berti’s wRC+ of 42 is only marginally better. While Justin Turner has improved after an ice cold start to the year, he still carries a wRC+ of just 62 on the season and is overmatched defensively at third base in his age-40 season.

There should be clear upgrades available this summer, if the Cubs are inclined to pursue them. Eugenio Suarez of the Diamondbacks looks like the best bat potentially available at any position, and he’s already clubbed 26 homers as the everyday third baseman in Arizona. Willi Castro is enjoying what could be a career year on the Twins (122 wRC+) and can play all over the diamond, including third base. Even a bench or platoon option could be a substantial improvement given the production of Chicago’s reserves. Ryan McMahon and Hayes have both gotten some trade buzz this summer, but both players are below-average hitters on underwater contracts. More palatable choices who could theoretically be available include Amed Rosario of the Nationals, Ramon Urias of the Orioles, and Abraham Toro of the Red Sox.

It’s hard to argue with the notion that the Cubs could make themselves a better team by adding a third baseman, or at least another infielder who can help carry the load at third base. With that being said, resources are finite. The Cubs’ once-vaunted farm system has taken hits due to the graduations of players like Crow-Armstrong, Shaw, and Horton, trades for Tucker and Michael Busch, and tough seasons for some top prospects like James Triantos. They still have a fairly robust group of near big league ready talent to trade from, but it could be hard to part with Owen Caissie as long as the possibility of Tucker leaving in free agency this winter remains on the table.

Trading for help on offense would necessarily require using capital that otherwise could have been spent to add another starter. Perhaps targeting a less expensive bench contributor could be a way to add infield help without compromising the club’s ability to go after a big name rotation add or two like Sandy Alcantara, Merrill Kelly, or Mitch Keller, but it could be hard for the Cubs to justify spending resources on another bat to further bolster an offense that has averaged more than five runs per game this season.

How do MLBTR readers view Chicago’s third base situation? Should the Cubs be aggressive in trying to add a starting third baseman to supplant Shaw down the stretch? Should they stick with their current offense and focus entirely on adding pitching? Or perhaps they should try to bolster their depth with a low-cost bench addition? Have your say in the poll below:

Poll: What Will The Twins Do At The Deadline?

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The Twins ended the 2024 season with a bitterly disappointing slump in September that pushed them out of the playoff picture at the very end of the year. Budget constraints forced them to follow that up with a generally very quiet offseason, however, and they entered 2025 with mostly the same team as last year aside from a few small additions like Danny Coulombe and Harrison Bader. Given that lackluster offseason, perhaps it’s not a shock that the Twins are currently 40-44, four games out of the final AL Wild Card spot and 12.5 games back of the Tigers in the AL Central.

Minnesota would have to leapfrog five clubs in the standings just to secure a Wild Card berth. On the other hand, they have a 25.6% chance at making it to the postseason, according to Fangraphs, with a roster that looks quite intimidating on paper. Injuries to Pablo Lopez and Zebby Matthews are certainly frustrating, but even without those pieces, the Twins have a solid-looking roster. The offense is centered around a pair of stars in Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa who are complemented by the likes of Willi Castro, Bader, and Ryan Jeffers. The rotation features a legitimate front-of-the-rotation arm in Joe Ryan, and the bullpen is anchored by an excellent dynamic duo of Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax.

Unfortunately, the cracks in the roster quickly begin to show up when you look at the roster’s performance this year. While Buxton has been as much of a star as advertised, Correa has been a below-average hitter this year with a 93 wRC+ after a brutal start to the season. He’s hit more like himself in recent weeks, but continues to show a concerning lack of power. Matt Wallner was unable to sustain a hot start, Brooks Lee hasn’t been the hitter Minnesota was hoping for, and a handful of expected contributors are languishing in Triple-A due to poor performance. The rotation has nothing concrete behind Ryan, with even Bailey Ober posting an ERA north of 5.00 on the year. And despite possessing the second-best bullpen in baseball by FIP, the unit’s 4.32 ERA is well below average.

That leaves the Twins as one of the many teams stuck between buying and selling as July kicks off. It’s not too difficult to imagine a return to form from Correa and better results from a bullpen with excellent underlying numbers being enough to pull Minnesota back above .500, or at least stop them from falling out of the race completely until Lopez and Matthews eventually return. All of that reason is sound enough, and it’s surely played into comments from president of baseball operations Derek Falvey last week that indicated selling is not something the team is “focusing on” at this point.

For a team that could be just a starting pitcher or two away from a second-half surge, buying and hoping to get into the dance understandably holds some appeal. Correa and Buxton aren’t getting any younger, after all, and key pieces like Lopez, Duran, and Ryan are all slated to reach free agency following the 2027 season. With only three pennant races to go until the Twins will need to make some major changes, a sell-off this summer could leave the team with little reason for optimism headed into the final years of their stars’ prime seasons.

On the other hand, the Twins already suffered one painful collapse last year and have limited resources due to financial constraints placed by ownership. A sale of the team could be in the works, and it could be argued that, between the number of potential contenders jockeying for a seat at the table in the AL and the very limited supply of clear sellers this summer, the Twins would be better off selling some of their pieces and regrouping for the future, when they figure to have more certainty on an ownership level.

Young pieces like Lee, Wallner, Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa, all have years to go before free agency. The arrivals of players like Emmanuel Rodriguez and Walker Jenkins should help the lineup make up for the eventual declines of Correa and Buxton. It’s certainly possible to make an argument that the Twins are set up relatively well for the future, and a few savvy sell-side moves could keep their theoretical window of contention open for much longer. Adding another top prospect or two to the mix alongside Jenkins and Rodriguez could keep the team relevant for years to come.

Of course, another possibility would be to split the difference and do a bit of both. Perhaps rental players like Castro and Coulombe are dangled and replaced internally, while the team uses some of its controllable depth to acquire a starter or two. That sort of balanced approach could make plenty of sense, as could the approach teams like the Cubs and Pirates took to the deadline last year where they added controllable, longer-term assets like Isaac Paredes and Isiah Kiner-Falefa to simultaneously improve the current club while also building for the future.

How do MLBTR readers think the Twins should approach this deadline? Should they trust the team they’ve constructed to make up for last year’s collapse and add? Should they take advantage of a potential seller’s market and see what they can get for some of their best pieces? Or should they take the middle road and do a bit of both? Have your say in the poll below:

Trade Deadline Outlook: Chicago White Sox

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The White Sox are next up in MLBTR's new Trade Deadline Outlook series.  After losing a modern-day record 121 games last year, the Sox are on pace to lose "only" 108 this year.  The Pale Hose remain firmly in the "clear seller" group as one of six teams with less than a 1% shot at reaching the playoffs.

White Sox executive vice president/general manager Chris Getz took over after the 2023 trade deadline, so this is only his second time being in the top chair for the event.  Last summer, Getz packaged several of his top assets together in Erick Fedde, Michael Kopech, and Tommy Pham, netting Miguel Vargas as the headliner.  That trade looked rough out of the gate, as Vargas was one of the game's worst players after joining the White Sox.  The 25-year-old somewhat redeemed himself with a hot May this year.

Getz held out until the offseason to move lefty Garrett Crochet, drawing better reviews for that deal.  While the four-player return on that trade looks promising, it may still be painful to see Crochet locked up through 2031 and vying for the AL Cy Young award.  That deal will take years to truly evaluate, but as we look ahead to July, the question for the White Sox is whether they have anything valuable left to trade.

Record: 28-56 (0.0% playoff probability)

Sell Mode

Impending Free Agents: Aaron Civale, Martin Perez, Adrian Houser, Tyler Alexander, Michael A. Taylor, Austin Slater

Civale was picked up from the Brewers in a one-for-one swap on June 13th for Andrew Vaughn.  Perhaps it was a bit of a monkey's paw situation for the 30-year-old Civale, who requested a trade from the contending Brewers upon being moved to the bullpen, only to land in the rotation of the rebuilding White Sox.

Civale was hoping to maintain his earning power as a starting pitcher, though it's unclear he's helped his case in a small three-start sample with Chicago.  On the season, he's got a well-deserved 4.74 ERA in eight starts, having missed over a month with a hamstring strain.  He's been unable to miss bats this year and his homer-prone tendencies have continued.

The White Sox had nothing to lose by acquiring Civale, in that they were highly likely to non-tender Vaughn after the season.  But as an $8MM back of the rotation guy, Civale won't be making playoff starts in October and won't bring more than a low-level prospect.  Potential suitors may want some help with his salary.

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Poll: Should The Pirates Trade Mitch Keller?

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The second year of the Paul Skenes era in Pittsburgh is not going well. The Pirates are currently 35-50, leaving them buried in both the NL Central and the Wild Card race. The Bucs stand as one of the few clear sellers this summer, and it seems as though the team is operating with very few untouchables. One of the names that’s gotten the a good bit of buzz this summer is right-hander Mitch Keller, who has drawn attention as one of the few established, controllable starting pitchers with a chance to be dealt.

The Cubs have come up as a potential suitor for Keller, and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported yesterday that the sides have been discussing a deal for more than a week. That’s not necessarily an indication that a trade, whether with the Cubs or otherwise, is particularly close. Still, it lends credence to the idea that the Pirates are serious in their willingness to consider moving the right-hander. That’s at least a mild surprise, given that he’s in just the second season of a five-year contract, but there’s a case to be made that the Pirates should capitalize right now.

After all, Keller is making $54.5MM over the final three years of his contract. That’s a below-market sum for a solid mid-rotation veteran but still steep for the perennially low-budget Pirates. Pittsburgh has already assembled an impressive group of young pitching talent with Skenes, top prospect Bubba Chandler, and injured-but-talented righty Jared Jones leading the pack. With affordable arms like Mike Burrows, Braxton Ashcraft and Thomas Harrington already having debuted, and well-regarded prospect Hunter Barco not far behind, the Pirates are amassing some enviable pitching depth. (That doesn’t include left-hander Bailey Falter, who’s affordably controlled for three more seasons.)

Pittsburgh would arguably be better off spending Keller’s salary on some sorely needed offense. Teoscar Hernandez, for example, signed with the Dodgers for a similar amount: $66MM over three years, with enough money deferred to lower the net present value of the contract to just under $60MM. Gleyber Torres, Tyler O’Neill, Christian Walker, and Pete Alonso are among the other hitters who signed for $60MM or less guaranteed this past winter. Not all of those deals have worked out, and there are always dangers of spending on even mid-range free agents like this, but the Pirates could have made reasonably competitive bids for some notable veterans on the open market with a sum comparable to what they still owe Keller.

Aside from the ability to reallocate financial resources, moving Keller would surely come with a solid return. Cost-controlled starting pitching is typically the most valuable commodity on the trade market, and while Keller is hardly elite given his 109 ERA+ this year, his affordable contract and year-to-year stability would give the acquiring club additional long-term certainty in their rotation that a rental pitcher like Zac Gallen could offer.

Using the Cubs’ system as an example due to their status as a rumored suitor for Keller, it’s easy to see why the Pirates might be willing to deal within the division. Chicago has a number of quality position player prospects knocking on the door of the big leagues. Outfielder Owen Caissie has 12 home runs and a 125 wRC+ at Triple-A Iowa as a 22-year-old this year. Catcher/DH Moises Ballesteros, outfielder Kevin Alcantara, and infielder James Triantos are all close to MLB-ready as well. Triantos’ stock is down after a difficult and injury-marred start to the 2025 season, but a package centering around one of those other young hitters could be appealing for a Pirates club that is looking to players like Andrew McCutchen and Spencer Horwitz to fill out the middle of its order at present. Other clubs with upper-level position player prospects have undoubtedly inquired on Keller, too.

As appealing as some of the arguments for trading Keller may be, there are real concerns that would come with making a deal. Keller was once looked at as a potential No. 2 starter during his prospect days and, while he hasn’t lived up to that potential yet, he’s not far removed from a three-WAR season wherein he struck out 25.5% of his opponents. His 4.21 ERA that year was pedestrian, but his 3.83 SIERA was 18th-best in baseball among qualified starters, just behind Logan Gilbert and ahead of players like Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, and Dylan Cease. Keller is still just 29 years old, and he certainly wouldn’t be the first pitcher to take a step forward in the middle of his prime. If the Pirates believe Keller still has another gear, they might prefer to hold onto him in hopes that he can unlock it and increase his trade value or his value to the Pirates themselves.

Aside from the possibility of selling at less than peak value, it’s worth noting how much uncertainty there is when it comes to developing pitching. The Tigers drafted Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize back in 2018 but only began to truly see the fruits of that labor last year after both players were derailed by injuries early in their career. Jones is already recovering from elbow surgery, and with pitching injuries seemingly more frequent than ever, it can be hard to part with a steady arm like Keller. Given the soaring price of pitching in free agency, the Pirates would likely have to keep scoring deals on low-cost veterans like they did with Andrew Heaney this year in order to fill out and create depth behind their young rotation mix.

How do MLBTR readers think the Pirates should act regarding Keller? Should they move to trade him in order to help boost the offense for their young arms, or should they hang onto him as a veteran presence and hope he can increase his value from here? Have your say in the poll below:

Trade Deadline Outlook: Baltimore Orioles

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Thus far, MLBTR's Deadline Outlook series has focused on teams that have a clear buy or sell direction. The Orioles are certainly trending towards the latter but are arguably the first semi-bubble team that we'll cover. Barring a monster July, they'll have no choice but to sell at least some short-term pieces. They've got a number of players who'll draw interest.

Record: 34-46 (2.9% playoff probability, per FanGraphs)

Sell Mode

Impending Free Agents: Ryan O'Hearn, Cedric Mullins, Seranthony Domínguez, Gregory Soto, Charlie Morton, Zach Eflin, Tomoyuki Sugano, Gary Sánchez

Baltimore has eight impending free agents, seven of whom have some level of trade value. O'Hearn has slumped this month but still carries a robust .301/.384/.485 line. It's his third consecutive above-average season, and he's playing on an affordable $8MM salary. The Mariners, Giants, Reds, Rangers and Royals could all make sense. Mullins had a monster April but hasn't hit over the last two months. He's nevertheless alongside Luis Robert Jr. as the most obvious trade candidates at a weak position. The Mets, Phillies, Guardians, Royals, Padres and Braves are among teams that could use a center fielder or could target Mullins with an eye towards playing him in a corner.

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Trade Deadline Outlook: Athletics

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MLBTR's team-by-team look at the upcoming trade deadline continues with a look at the Athletics, a team that has been rebuilding for a few years now. They had an aggressive winter ahead of the 2025 campaign and showed some promise early in the season but they have since fallen back and are clearly not out of the rebuild yet.

Record: 33-50 (0.2% playoff probability)

Other series entries: Rockies, Giants, Phillies, Pirates, Astros, Marlins

Sell Mode

Impending free agents: Luis Urías, Sean Newcomb, Gio Urshela, T.J. McFarland, Miguel Andujar, José Leclerc

These guys should all be very much available in the next few weeks, though it's unlikely the A's get a massive return from any of them. Luis Urías should be the most appealing of the bunch. The A's signed him to a one-year, $1.1MM deal in the offseason. He has appeared in 66 games so far this year with seven home runs, a 10% walk rate and 13.3% strikeout rate. His .244/.328/.378 batting line translates to a 102 wRC+. He has mostly played second base in 2025 but has also spent some time at third and has extensive experience at both positions. He's not a superstar, but he's a solid option in a market without a ton of others available, so he should be able to net the A's a prospect or two. Last year, infielders like Paul DeJong, Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Amed Rosario were flipped for modest returns and Urías could be somewhat similar.

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Poll: NL Cy Young Check-In

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While days off and postponements leave clubs around the league without a uniform number of games played, one of the games in this week’s slate will represent the halfway point in the season for every team across MLB. Earlier this week, we checked in on the MVP race in both the American League and the National League as players around the game gear up for the second half. Those races are dominated by position players, so today we’ll turn our attention more firmly towards the pitchers. Who are the frontrunners for the Cy Young Award in both leagues? Yesterday’s poll covered the AL, where 45.5% of voters expect southpaw Tarik Skubal to repeat as the Cy Young Award winner. Today, our focus is on the NL. A look at some of the top candidates:

Paul Skenes

After a dominant debut season where he won the NL Rookie of the Year award and finished third in Cy Young voting, it shouldn’t register as much of a surprise that Skenes is one of the favorites for the award in his sophomore season as a big leaguer. The right-hander has an NL-best 2.12 ERA in 106 innings of work through 17 starts with strong peripherals to match. He’s striking out 26.9% of his opponents, walking 7.1%, and is doing extremely well in terms of contact management with a 48.9% ground ball rate and a barrel rate of just 4.9%. It’s a strong collection of numbers for any player, much less a 23-year-old in just his second MLB season.

Even so, Skenes is hardly a slam dunk for the award. His strikeout rate, walk rate, and ground ball rate are all actually worse than they were in his rookie campaign. His 3.28 SIERA is just eighth in the NL, suggesting that there are other contenders for the award who are better set up to excel in the second half of the season than he is. Aside from that, some more traditional voters could look at Skenes’s 4-7 record on a Pirates team that could flirt with a 100-loss campaign this year and hold it against the young star relative to other hurlers in the race who pitch for contenders.

Logan Webb

When looking at the game’s aces, it can be argued that none is more underappreciated than right-hander Logan Webb. He’s doing what he can to change that perception of him with a phenomenal season in his age-28 campaign, however. Webb’s 2.52 ERA lags behind that of Skenes, but he makes up for it in virtually every other category. His 107 1/3 innings of work across 17 starts leads the NL, and his 2.24 FIP is also good for the best in the senior circuit. While his 53.3% ground ball rate would be the lowest he’s posted in a full season if maintained through the end of the year, it’s still a well above average figure.

He’s made up for that decline in grounders by striking out more batters than ever before with a 27.7% clip that surpasses even Skenes, and he’s done it while maintaining a tidy 5.3% walk rate. There are very few red flags in Webb’s profile this year, and perhaps the biggest question is if a player who entered the year with a career 22.0% strikeout rate who has made only token improvements to his low-90s fastball in terms of velocity this year can sustain such a large spike in strikeouts. After finishing as the runner-up for the Cy Young Award in 2023 and sixth last season, could 2025 be Webb’s year to shine?

Zack Wheeler

No list of potential Cy Young candidates in the NL has been complete without Wheeler since he arrived in Philadelphia, and this year is no exception. The 35-year-old may have recently indicated that he’ll retire following the expiration of his current contract in 2027, but he’s shown no signs whatsoever of slowing down on the mound. Across 99 innings of work and 16 starts this year, Wheeler’s numbers look like they have a chance to be better than they’ve ever been come the end of the year.

His 2.55 ERA would be the best of his career by a slim margin after he posted a 2.57 figure last season, and his eye-popping 32.9% strikeout rate is not only nearly eight points better than his career mark, but the highest in all of baseball among qualified starters this year. His 2.70 SIERA is also the best in the NL, edging out Webb by just eight points, and he has a strong chance to eclipse 200 innings pitched for the third time in his career. Wheeler has finished second for the Cy Young twice before, in both 2021 and 2024. This year could be his best opportunity to secure the award before his planned retirement two seasons from now.

MacKenzie Gore

Easily the most surprising entrant into the list of top candidates for the Cy Young, Gore was once the sport’s consensus top pitching prospect but entered the 2025 season with a fairly pedestrian 4.20 ERA across parts of three seasons in the majors. He’s broken out in a big way as the Nationals’ ace this year, however, with a 3.09 ERA and 2.91 FIP in 99 innings of work across 17 starts. His 31.8% strikeout rate is second only to Wheeler in the NL, and that overpowering stuff is enough to leave him with a strong 2.99 SIERA that largely supports his performance to this point in the season.

Impressive as he’s been, however, the 26-year-old also has much clearer flaws than the other contenders on this list. Like Skenes, Gore’s 3-8 record on a club with little hope of contending in 2025 could be a hard sell for the sport’s most traditional voters. There are also fair questions about how certain Gore is to keep up his performance in the second half. He’s mostly a fly ball pitcher, and that profile along with his 9.0% barrel rate allowed leave him susceptible to the long ball. His 7.4% walk rate is the highest among the top contenders for the Cy Young this year, as well. Perhaps most concerning of all is his performance down the stretch in 2024. After carrying a 3.47 ERA and 3.00 FIP through July 1 last year, Gore wore down in the second half and posted a 4.40 ERA with a 4.17 FIP across his final 15 starts. Will he be able to sustain his performance this year?

Other Options

While the four hurlers mentioned above are the top candidates, they certainly aren’t the only arms worthy of consideration. Chris Sale is the reigning Cy Young winner in the NL and would be firmly in contention for the award once again if not for a recent rib cage injury that figures to sideline him indefinitely. Jesus Luzardo has elite peripheral numbers but recently surrendered 20 runs in 5 2/3 innings across two appearances that could knock him out of contention for the award by themselves. Cristopher Sanchez and former Cy Young award winner Robbie Ray are both in the midst of excellent seasons, but are overshadowed within their own rotations by Wheeler and Webb respectively. Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s 2.61 ERA is very impressive, but his less-than-elite peripherals and lack of volume leave him a step behind the other contenders.

Sale’s injury sets this race apart from the AL Cy Young and both of the MVP races by significantly diminishing the chances of a repeat. With what appears to be a fairly wide-open field, who do MLBTR readers expect to come out on top? Have your say in the poll below:

Trade Deadline Outlook: Colorado Rockies

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MLBTR's team-by-team look at the upcoming trade deadline continues with a look at the Colorado Rockies, who are on pace to break the 2024 White Sox' modern-day record for losses in a single season. General manager Bill Schmidt's club is on pace for a staggering 37 wins this season -- a mark that 23 of the game's 29 other clubs have already reached as of late June. The Rockies are a clear seller -- or at least, they should be. The Rox typically march to the beat of their own drum, however, and owner Dick Monfort seems particularly averse to any large-scale sell-offs.

Still, given the Rockies' historic futility in 2025, the expectation is that they'll move some veteran pieces, while the fan base's hope might be for an uncharacteristically active deadline on the sell side of things.

Record: 18-62 (0% playoff odds, per FanGraphs)

Other series entries: Giants, Phillies, Pirates, Astros, Marlins

Sell Mode

Impending free agents: Germán Márquez, Thairo Estrada, Austin Gomber, Kyle Farmer, Orlando Arcia

Márquez has been a pillar for the Rockies' staff since coming over in a 2015-16 offseason trade that sent outfielder Corey Dickerson to the Rays. The Rox have resisted trading him in the past, twice signing him to extensions. He's now in his first full season post-Tommy John surgery, earning $10MM. There'll be about $3.17MM of that sum yet to be paid out of as of deadline day. Márquez got out to an awful start but has turned in a 3.21 ERA in 47 2/3 innings over his past nine starts (though that includes six unearned runs in his last start against the Dodgers). His 17.6% strikeout rate in that span is nowhere near peak levels, but his command has been good and he's averaging better than 95 mph on his heater. Plenty of teams would look at Marquez's velocity and track record of missing bats and think they could turn him around further.

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