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White Sox Trade Luis Robert Jr. To Mets

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The long-awaited Luis Robert Jr. trade has arrived. The Mets announced they’ve acquired the former All-Star center fielder from the White Sox for young infielder/outfielder Luisangel Acuña and minor league right-hander Truman Pauley. There’s no cash involved and no corresponding moves because Robert and Acuña were each on the 40-man roster.

This brings an end to what had been years of Robert trade rumors. The White Sox have held their center fielder through multiple rebuilding seasons. In retrospect, they surely wish they’d moved him over the 2023-24 offseason. Robert was coming off a career year and looked like a budding star entering the prime of his career. The past two seasons have been more challenging, as he has battled injuries and struggled while fielding questions about when he would be traded.

Robert was a high-profile prospect when he signed with the Sox out of Cuba in 2017. He commanded a $26MM bonus, the kind of hefty sum for an international amateur that would subsequently be prohibited in the collective bargaining agreement. Robert’s dominant minor league performance further spurred optimism, and the White Sox signed him to a $50MM extension over the 2019-20 offseason. At the time, it was the largest extension for a player who had to make his MLB debut, and it ensured he’d break camp in 2020 without any kind of service time games.

While that year’s schedule would be shortened by the pandemic, Robert popped 11 homers and won a Gold Glove in center field. He placed second in Rookie of the Year balloting. Robert’s numbers jumped in year two, as he hit .338/.378/.567 across 296 plate appearances. A torn flexor tendon in his right hip cost him three months, however, and the blend of tantalizing talent and frustrating durability would be a recurring theme in his career.

Robert had a trio of injured list stints, albeit all for minor issues, the following season. He stayed healthy for almost all of the ’23 campaign and showed the star-level ceiling he possesses at full strength. Robert drilled 38 homers, 36 doubles and one triple across 595 plate appearances. He hit .264/.315/.542 to win a Silver Slugger Award. FanGraphs and Baseball Reference each valued his season around five wins above replacement after accounting for his excellent center field defense.

The White Sox nevertheless went 61-101 and were outscored by 200 runs. It was clear they were amidst a multi-year teardown, but they elected to hang onto Robert when they had four years of affordable contractual control. They could have netted multiple top prospects if they’d shopped him.

Robert’s production has tanked as the team has slogged through two more terrible seasons. He’s a .223/.288/.372 hitter in 856 plate appearances since the start of 2024. He has struck out at a near-30% rate while continuing to battle injuries. The right hip flared up early in the ’24 season and kept him out for two months. A pair of left hamstring strains were the culprit last summer, with the latter costing him all of September.

The physical tools remain encouraging. Robert is one of the fastest players in the league despite the various lower body injuries. He ranks in the 92nd percentile in bat speed, according to Statcast. He’s an aggressive hitter who is always going to have his share of strikeouts. Teams would happily live with a lower on-base percentage if he’s making the kind of power and defensive impact he did during his best days in Chicago.

It’s largely a change-of-scenery bet from the Mets’ perspective. Robert only turned 28 in August and hasn’t shown signs of physical decline. He has spent the past three seasons on one of the worst teams in MLB, fully aware that he’d be traded at some point. A new environment could help him get back on track, although the durability concerns will persist even if his numbers improve.

Robert will at least upgrade the defense and bring some upside on the bases. He has stolen 20+ bags in three straight seasons and went 33-41 in stolen base attempts last year. He should also bring some juice against left-handed pitching, as he’s a career .293/.367/.505 hitter with the platoon advantage. His production against southpaws tanked in 2024 but rebounded last season.

The biggest risk for the Mets is financial. They’re assuming the entirety of Robert’s $20MM salary and committing to a $2MM buyout on a $20MM club option for the 2027 season. It’s not a small amount to spend on a player who hasn’t produced much over the past two years, and that’s before considering the tax implications.

The Mets pay a 110% tax on spending as a three-time repeat luxury tax payor whose CBT payroll is above $304MM. Robert is guaranteed $22MM for one season — the option buyout is guaranteed money — so they’re tagged with a $24.2MM tax hit. It’s a $46.2MM commitment overall, albeit one that comes with the upside of what could be a bargain option in ’27 if Robert hits his ceiling. RosterResource calculate their CBT number around $357MM, putting them on track to exceed last year’s season-ending $347MM mark — which required a $91.6MM tax payment. There’s a good chance they’ll have a tax bill north of $100MM by the end of the ’26 season.

They’ve taken on $64MM in AAV commitments for the 2026 season between the Robert trade and Bo Bichette signing over the past five days. The Mets haven’t wanted to lock themselves into lengthy deals one offseason after the Juan Soto signing. They’ve compensated with significant short-term investments to chase upside. Robert should be the everyday center fielder as long as he’s healthy. That’d push Tyrone Taylor either into a fourth outfield role or as a stopgap in left field if prospects Carson Benge and Jett Williams open the season in Triple-A. It seems likely to take them out of the running on Cody Bellinger, the top unsigned position player.

Although the White Sox missed their opportunity to trade Robert at the apex of his value, they deserve some credit for exercising this year’s option rather than cutting him loose for nothing in free agency. That at least netted them an intriguing depth piece in Acuña, who felt superfluous on the Mets but is a fine target for a rebuilding team.

The younger brother of Ronald Acuña Jr., Luisangel is a former Rangers signee whom the Mets acquired in the 2023 Max Scherzer deadline deal. His bloodlines and previous inclusion in one marquee trade have made him a more well-known prospect than his production probably warrants, but he’s not yet 24 and provides some multi-positional utility for skipper Will Venable.

Acuña signed as a shortstop and has the arm strength to profile on the left side of the infield. There weren’t many shortstop reps available on a team with Francisco Lindor, leading the Mets to bounce him around in a utility capacity. Acuña has plus-plus speed and could be an option in center field as well. He’s splitting his time between shortstop and center field in the Venezuelan winter league, but the majority of his MLB experience has come as a second baseman.

The White Sox shouldn’t have any issue getting Acuña in the lineup even if he’s not expected to push Colson Montgomery off shortstop. He could step into the everyday center field role vacated by the Robert trade or push for second/third base playing time alongside Chase Meidroth, Miguel Vargas and Lenyn Sosa.

The question is whether Acuña will bring enough to the table offensively to warrant playing time once the Sox are better positioned to contend. He’s a .248/.299/.341 hitter in his first 233 MLB plate appearances. Acuña has had a similarly light bat against Triple-A pitching. The right-handed hitter owns a .265/.307/.360 line in more than 700 trips to the plate at the top minor league level. Acuña has solid contact skills but puts a lot of balls on the ground without big exit velocities. He’s a slash-and-dash type hitter whose best current ability is as a runner, where he went 16-17 in stolen base tries over 95 MLB games last year.

Acuña is out of minor league options, so the White Sox will need to keep him on the MLB roster. They wouldn’t have traded Robert for him if they didn’t intend to do so. The lack of roster flexibility was a much bigger hangup for the Mets, who also cannot option Mark Vientos and are unlikely to send Brett Baty back to Triple-A. They knew they’d lose Acuña on waivers but weren’t positioned to offer him the playing time to take a step forward offensively. Chicago can control him through the 2031 season, as Acuña has yet to reach a year of MLB service.

The White Sox also add a low minors arm in Pauley, a 6’2″ righty whom the Mets took in the 12th round of last year’s draft. The Harvard product received an above-slot $400K signing bonus. Baseball America ranked him the #435 prospect in the draft, writing in June that teams like the riding life on his mid-90s fastball and plus spin rates on his breaking ball. Pauley walked more than 15% of opponents with a 4.61 ERA in his draft year. His command will need to take a significant leap if he’s to get to the majors, even as a reliever, but the Sox’s player development team is clearly intrigued by his raw stuff.

From a payroll standpoint, dealing Robert drops Chicago’s projected spending to $67MM. They opened last season around $81MM, so this could free them up for a late-offseason depth addition or two. The Sox could bring in a veteran middle reliever and/or a fourth outfielder whom they’d try to flip for another lottery ticket prospect in the Pauley mold at the deadline.

Jeff Passan of ESPN was first on the trade terms. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reported that the Mets were assuming the full salary. Respective images courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski, Jay Biggerstaff of Imagn Images.

Carlos Beltran, Andruw Jones Elected To Hall Of Fame

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The Baseball Writers Association of America announced that Carlos Beltrán and Andruw Jones have been elected to the Hall of Fame. They’ll be inducted into Cooperstown alongside Jeff Kent, who was elected by the Era Committee, on July 26. Beltrán appeared on 84.2% of ballots, while Jones got to a 78.4% vote share.

Beltrán gets the honor in his fourth year. The switch-hitting outfielder was the only player who fell between 70% and 75% on last year’s ballot. His positive trend lines made it a near lock that he’d surpass the 75% threshold this winter.

The Royals drafted Beltrán, a native of Puerto Rico, in the second round in 1995. He reached the big leagues as a September call-up three years later and ranked as one of the sport’s top prospects going into his first full season in 1999. Scouting reports projected him as a potential five-tool center fielder, and Beltrán lived up to that billing immediately.

He hit .293/.337/.454 with 22 homers and 27 stolen bases during his debut campaign. Beltrán was the runaway choice for American League Rookie of the Year, the first of many accolades he’d accrue over the next two decades. Injuries and a sophomore slump limited his playing time in 2000, but Beltrán reestablished himself as one of the sport’s best outfielders the following year. He’d hit above .300 in two of the next three seasons, earning his first top 10 MVP finish behind a .307/.389/.522 showing in 2003.

The roster around Beltrán was not nearly as strong. A small-market Kansas City franchise was unlikely to re-sign him, making him a top trade chip as he entered his final season of club control. The Royals dealt Beltrán, a first-time All-Star, to the Astros midway through the ’04 season. He appeared on the National League roster — Houston was then an NL team — and finished 12th in MVP balloting despite spending the first three months in the American League. Beltrán hit .258/.368/.559 with 23 homers in 90 regular season games for Houston.

His introduction to the postseason couldn’t have gone any better. Beltrán batted .435 with eight homers in 12 playoff games, helping Houston to within one game of a trip to the World Series. The Astros would go on to win the pennant one year later, but Beltrán had moved on in free agency by that point. He signed what was then a franchise-record deal with the Mets: seven years and $119MM.

Beltrán’s first season in Queens was a bit of a disappointment, but he rebounded with arguably the best season of his career in 2006. He hit a career-best 41 home runs and drove in a personal-high 116 runs with a .275/.388/.594 slash line. Beltrán won his first Gold Glove and Silver Slugger awards while finishing fourth in MVP voting. Baseball Reference credited him with eight wins above replacement, the best mark of his career. He remained a force into the playoffs, batting .278 with a .422 on-base percentage over 10 games.

For the second time in three years, Beltrán’s team lost the seventh game of an NLCS battle with the Cardinals. The ’07 Mets famously melted down in September to squander the NL East title to the Phillies. They wouldn’t return to the playoffs during Beltrán’s tenure, yet there’s no doubt they got their money’s worth from the free agent investment. Beltrán played in 839 games while hitting .280/.369/.500 with 149 homers over six and a half seasons in a Mets uniform.

The club also netted a top pitching prospect named Zack Wheeler when they traded the impending free agent to the Giants in 2011. He raked down the stretch with San Francisco, but they narrowly missed the postseason between their World Series wins in 2010 and ’12. Beltrán signed a two-year deal with the Cardinals the following year. He hit .282/.343/.493 over his time in St. Louis, but his impact again was brightest in the postseason. Beltrán was a stellar playoff performer in both years.

Beltrán signed a three-year contract with the Yankees over the 2013-14 offseason. He remained an above-average hitter over his time in the Bronx, albeit without the defensive value he’d had for the majority of his career. He made it back to the playoffs in 2016 after being dealt to the Rangers at the deadline. Beltrán finished his career on a one-year contract to return to the Astros.

The final season in Houston wound up leaving Beltrán with a complicated legacy. He was an integral part of the team’s sign-stealing operation that wasn’t publicly revealed until a few seasons thereafter. Beltrán wasn’t much of an on-field contributor at age 40, but he collected his first World Series ring when the Astros won their first title in franchise history.

Beltrán’s role in the sign-stealing scandal became public over the 2019-20 offseason. He had just been hired by the Mets as manager a few months earlier. He stepped down and forfeited his salary once the operation became public. Beltrán has remained involved in the game in less prominent roles, working as a television analyst with the YES Network and spending the past few seasons as a special assistant in the Mets’ front office. He’s also in charge of building the roster for the Puerto Rican national team at the upcoming World Baseball Classic.

The sign-stealing scandal probably delayed Beltrán’s entry to Cooperstown. His statistical résumé made him a very strong candidate to get in on the first ballot. He finished his playing days with a .279/.350/.486 batting line. He hit 435 home runs, stole 312 bases, and drove in nearly 1600. Baseball Reference valued his career at 70 WAR, which doesn’t even account for his playoff excellence. Jay Jaffe’s JAWS metric has him as a top 10 center fielder of all time. Whatever trepidation some voters may have had about honoring him within the first couple years on the ballot, the end result is that he’s headed to Cooperstown to cement his legacy as one of the best center fielders to play the game.

That’s also the case for Jones, who ranks 11th among center fielders by the same JAWS calculation. He gets in on his ninth year on the ballot, one season after receiving 66% of the vote. A native of Curacao, Jones signed with the Braves as an international amateur and flew through the minor leagues. He was the #1 prospect in the game when he reached the majors in the second half of the 1996 season. Jones stepped seamlessly onto a loaded Atlanta roster that was midway through their run of dominance in the National League. They were coming off a championship and would head back to the Fall Classic in ’96.

A 19-year-old Jones embraced the big stage, hitting .345 with a trio of home runs in October. That included a two-homer showing in Game 1 against the Yankees, and he remains the youngest player ever to hit a World Series home run. The Braves won the first game but wound up dropping the series in six.

Jones played mostly right field during his first full season. He hit .231 with 18 homers in 153 games and finished fifth in NL Rookie of the Year balloting. He really took off the following year, kicking off a decade-long run as the sport’s best defensive outfielder and a premier power threat. Jones hit 31 homers while batting .271/.321/.515 and earning his first Gold Glove in 1998. That was his first of seven 30-homer campaigns and, more remarkably, the start of a streak of 10 consecutive Gold Glove awards.

He’d start all 162 games for the Braves in 1999, playing elite defense while batting .275/.365/.483 with 26 homers and 35 doubles. The Braves made it back to the World Series after losing the NLCS in the prior two seasons. They were again knocked off by the Yankees, this time in a sweep. Jones didn’t have great playoff numbers over that stretch but remained one of the league’s best players in the regular season. He hit 36 homers in a 2000 season which Baseball Reference valued at eight wins above replacement, a career high that ranked fourth in MLB among position players.

Jones earned an eighth-place MVP finish in 2000 and very likely would have finished higher had today’s defensive metrics been around at the time. He reeled off another three 30-plus homer seasons after that, narrowly dropping below that cutoff with a 29-homer showing in 2004. He rebounded with his most impressive offensive performance in ’05, as he slugged an MLB-best 51 longballs and led the National League with 128 runs batted in. Jones won a Silver Slugger for the first and only time and finished as the MVP runner-up behind Albert Pujols. It was a narrow split, as Pujols received 18 first-place votes against Jones’ 13. (Third-place finisher Derrek Lee received the other one.)

The righty hitter remained an impact run producer the following season, as he slugged 41 more home runs with a career-high 129 RBI. That was his last impact season, as his rate stats dropped in 2007. The Braves let him depart in free agency at season’s end, and he was essentially finished as an everyday player at age 31. Jones played parts of five more seasons between the Dodgers, Rangers, White Sox and Yankees. He didn’t record more than 64 hits in any of his final five campaigns.

While it was a precipitous decline, Jones had one of the more impressive peaks in baseball history. He hit 368 home runs with a .263/.342/.497 batting line between his debut and the end of his age-30 season. Retroactive defensive metrics come with significant error bars, but FanGraphs estimates he was roughly 134 runs better than an average defender during that stretch. That’s 25 runs clear of the second-place finisher at any position (Adrian Beltré) and certainly aligns with both his impressive accolades and scouting evaluations that consider him among the best outfield defenders in MLB history. Jones is one of six outfielders to win 10 Gold Gloves. He’s alongside Roberto Clemente, Willie Mays, Ken Griffey Jr., Al Kaline and Ichiro in that company and now, in Cooperstown.

Jones finished his career as a .254/.337/.486 hitter. His 434 homers place him one behind Beltrán for sixth among center fielders and tied with Juan González for 49th regardless of position. He nevertheless had a lengthy stay on the ballot as some voters struggled with his lack of production after he left Atlanta. Others may have withheld a vote on moral grounds, as Jones pleaded guilty to domestic battery charges and paid a fine after his wife alleged that he put his hands around her neck in December 2012. That came after the end of Jones’ MLB career, though he subsequently played two seasons in Japan to finish his professional playing days.

While Jones will certainly go into the Hall as a Brave, Beltrán had a nomadic enough career to consider a few options for his plaque. The Hall of Fame has final say but works with the player to choose which cap they’ll don. Beltrán tells Bob Nightengale of USA Today that while no decision has been finalized, he’s likely to go into Cooperstown as a Met.

Looking further down the ballot, Chase Utley’s 59% vote share was the highest among the candidates who were not elected. That’s up 20 points relative to last winter. It puts Utley, who has been on the ballot for three years, on track for eventual enshrinement — with an outside chance that he gets in as soon as next year. No other candidate appeared on more than half the ballots.

Of this year’s first-time candidates, only Cole Hamels (23.8%) received more than the 5% necessary to remain under consideration. All but one player who fell off the ballot was up for consideration for the first time. The lone exception is Manny Ramírez, who drops off after coming up short in his 10th year. Ramírez’s history of performance-enhancing drug use (including a failed test) made him a non-starter for many voters, and he appeared on fewer than 40% of ballots in his final year. His only path to enshrinement is via the Era Committees, and their decision last month on Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens makes it difficult to see a scenario where Ramírez ever gets in.

Next year will be the final consideration for Omar Vizquel, who has no chance of jumping from 18% to induction. Buster Posey and Jon Lester headline a class of first-time candidates that’ll also include Ryan Zimmerman, Kyle Seager, Brett Gardner and Jake Arrieta. Posey seems likely to get serious consideration for first-ballot induction, while Lester should easily have enough support to get more than 5% and remain on the ballot for future seasons.

Full voter breakdown courtesy of BBWAA. Respective images via USA Today Sports.

Mets Sign Bo Bichette

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January 20: Bichette’s physical is complete and the Mets have officially announced the signing. They’ll hold a press conference on Wednesday afternoon to introduce their new star.

January 16: The Mets wasted little time in changing gears after missing out on the offseason’s top free agent. They’ve reportedly agreed to a massive three-year, $126MM contract with free agent infielder Bo Bichette. The Vayner Sports client can opt out of the contract after this season and after the 2027 campaign, and if he chooses to do so he’ll pick up an additional $5MM bonus. The contract does not contain any deferred money and affords Bichette a full no-trade clause.

It’s a stunning and near-immediate pivot for a Mets club that is barely 12 hours removed from losing out on Kyle Tucker, who just last night went to the Dodgers. Los Angeles outbid the Mets’ reported four-year, $220MM deal with a four-year, $240MM contract that gives Tucker two opt-out opportunities (post-2027 and post-2028). Having missed on that big swing, the Mets now pivot to the market’s next-best bat and next-best all-around free agent, bringing Bichette in on a $42MM annual value that ties Zack Wheeler for the sixth-largest in MLB history.

In landing Bichette, the Mets are not only pivoting from Tucker in arguably the most notable way possible — they’re also keeping him from a division rival that had emerged as the ostensible frontrunner. Bichette met with the Phillies earlier this week, and made him a seven-year offer worth around $200MM. They believed they were close to a deal last night, but the Tucker decision prompted a pivot from the Mets, who swooped in and stole him from their rivals. Bichette now lands a mammoth annual value that could grow even further (via that $5MM bonus) if he opts out and returns to the market next winter, ahead of what would still be only his age-29 season.

Though the fit isn’t necessarily as clean as Tucker would have been for a Mets club that already had a deep infield and was lacking in outfielders, Bichette adds a clear plus bat to manager Carlos Mendoza’s lineup. The 27-year-old (28 in March) has been a well above-average hitter in all but one of his seven major league campaigns — a 2024 season that was cut short by multiple calf injuries and a broken finger standing as the lone exception.

Bichette hit just .225/.277/.322 in 80 games during that awful 2024 campaign. He not only bounced back in 2025 but turned in arguably the best performance of his career on a rate basis, slashing .311/.357/.483 with 18 home runs in 628 plate appearances. By measure of wRC+ (134), it was Bichette’s best season since his late call-up during the 2019 campaign (MLB’s juiced-ball season).

Even on its surface, Bichette’s 2025 season looks excellent. It doesn’t tell the tale of his finish, though, which had both positives and one very obvious negative. Bichette actually had a tepid start to his 2025 campaign. The underlying batted-ball data through his first month-plus was strong, but he hit just .275/.316/.363 through the first week of May. From that point forth, Bichette caught fire. Over his next 457 plate appearances, he laid waste to opposing pitchers at a .325/.372/.528 clip. That was 50% better than league-average, by measure of wRC+, and even that doesn’t fully do justice to Bichette’s jaw-dropping summer; over his final 238 plate appearances, the second-generation All-Star went supernova with a .381/.437/.591 slash (187 wRC+).

Unfortunately for both Bichette and the Blue Jays, that previously mentioned “very obvious negative” struck in early September when he suffered a sprained posterior cruciate ligament in his knee and missed the remainder of the regular season. He was also inactive for the early rounds of postseason play, only returning in the World Series. Bichette was clearly hobbled during the Fall Classic, limping to first base with ’88 Gibson-esque speed when putting the ball in play and displaying a lack of range at a new position: second base. Bichette’s shortstop glovework has been panned for years, and the Jays took the downtime as an opportunity to shift the defensively superior Andres Gimenez over to shortstop in his absence.

Despite the clearly injured knee, Bichette’s bat didn’t miss a beat in the World Series. He went 8-for-23 with seven singles and a titanic three-run homer off Shohei Ohtani in Game 7 of the World Series. Had the Jays’ bullpen managed to hold the lead, that would-be game-winner would have trailed only Joe Carter’s walk-off blast in franchise lore. Of course, that’s not how the game turned out, but Bichette’s 442-foot bomb still served to further underscore that even at less than 100%, he was a clear impact bat.

Bichette now carries a lifetime .294/.337/.469 batting line with him to Queens. He’s been 20-35% better than an average hitter every season of his career with the exception of that 2024 outlier, and this past season’s 14.5% strikeout rate was a career-low. He couples those plus-plus contact skills with above-average power and high-end batted-ball data; Bichette averaged 91 mph off the bat this past season (72nd percentile), and his 48.8% hard-hit rate sat in the 83rd percentile of big league hitters.

The question for Bichette and the Mets is how well he can handle a move to third base. His shortstop deficiencies were largely due to sub-par range. He doesn’t have a plus throwing arm necessarily, but it’s closer to average — at least in terms of the average velocity on his throws, as measured by Statcast — than was the case with his bottom-of-the-scale lateral movement. Bichette averaged 82.3 mph on his throws across the diamond last year — below par in MLB but still an upgrade (at least in terms of pure arm strength) over the man he’ll be replacing at the hot corner, Brett Baty (81.2 mph). Bichette may not be a plus defender at third, but even average defense coupled with his bat and good health would result in All-Star output.

Baty could now bounce between multiple positions. He’s played second base and left field in the past, and the Mets would surely be open to experimenting with him at first base, too. The designated hitter slot provides more opportunities for all. It’s a similar range of possibilities to the one faced by Jorge Polanco, who inked a two-year, $40MM deal last month. Polanco will reportedly be used extensively at first base and designated hitter despite having virtually no prior first base experience.

For a team that has preached run prevention for much of the offseason, lining up with Bichette at third base and Polanco/Baty at first probably isn’t how they drew things up originally — but the offseason is a layered beast that rarely unfolds in alignment with even the best-laid plans. Even if the Mets’ infield defense (and outfield defense, for that matter) is lacking, it’ll be solid up the middle thanks to Francisco Lindor and Marcus Semien. It should also be a highly productive offensive unit — particularly if Semien’s bat can bounce back at all.

Of course, the addition of Bichette also makes a potential trade of Baty — and several other infielders — more likely. Clubs seeking third base help include the Mariners, Angels and Pirates (as explored at length yesterday), among others. Any could show interest in Baty, Mark Vientos, Luisangel Acuña and/or Ronny Mauricio. Acuña, Vientos and Mauricio have all reportedly been available throughout the offseason anyhow. Some form of move seems likely, especially when considering both Acuña and Vientos are out of minor league options and looking to bounce back from poor seasons.

From a payroll vantage point, the Bichette contract is all the more staggering. Not only is the $42MM annual value the sixth-largest ever, it’s also only a fraction of what the Mets will actually have to pay due to this signing. New York was already on the cusp of the top tier of luxury penalization. Bichette catapults them $33MM north of that final cutoff point, per RosterResource’s estimates. They’ll pay a 95% tax on the first roughly $9MM of his annual value and a full-freight 110% tax on the remaining $33MM. Assuming an even distribution of his $126MM over the three-year term, the Mets would be paying more than $86MM for Bichette in 2026 alone. If he triggers that $5MM bonus upon opting out next winter, that’d also be subject to a 110% tax, bringing the Mets’ total bill on Bichette to about $97MM for just one year.

Moreover, the signing underscores the minimal amount that many big-market, CBT-paying clubs care about paying the 110% tax on short-term deals marquee players. The Dodgers’ signing of Tucker — just as will be the case with Bichette’s deal — has rekindled public outcry for a salary cap, but the players will likely only use these deals to illustrate the discrepancy between the middle and upper class of free agents; the union will surely argue that a cap would only further expand that gap and point out that half the money paid by CBT offenders is redistributed to other teams (in addition to standard revenue-sharing). That won’t fly with small-market owners, who’ll argue that they can’t compete with this type of expenditure. Both sides will dig in their heels.

It’s also fair to wonder whether this is a short-term blip or a burgeoning trend. Even big-market clubs seem increasingly against long-term contracts. For years, it was the Dodgers who tended to prefer short-term, high-AAV deals. But we’ve now seen the Mets limit their Tucker offer to four years and go three super-premium years on Bichette — while also declining to go beyond three years for Pete Alonso or Edwin Diaz. The Red Sox clearly prefer the trade market to free agency and surprised onlookers by even extending to five years to sign Ranger Suárez. The Yankees have reportedly been stuck on five years for their offer to Cody Bellinger while he seeks a seven-year term. Giants ownership publicly voiced an aversion to signing any pitchers to long-term contracts.

If baseball is indeed moving more toward NBA-style contracts — short term, ultra-high annual value — it’d mark a dramatic shift for a sport whose top players have overwhelmingly (albeit not always) preferred the stability of long-term arrangements, even if that means sacrificing some money on an annual basis. Time will tell, but that will all factor into both parties’ approach at the negotiating table next winter in an offseason that is widely expected to be impacted by a lockout and transaction freeze.

Turning back to the teams directly impacted by today’s signing, the Mets will part with their second- and fifth-highest selections in the 2026 draft as well as $1MM of space from next year’s bonus pool for international amateur free agents. That’s due to the fact that Bichette declined a $22.025MM qualifying offer. By that same token, the Blue Jays will be compensated with an extra pick. That selection will come after the fourth round of this summer’s draft — the lowest possible compensation — due to Toronto’s status as a luxury tax payor.

For the Jays, parting with Bichette has at least seemed possible throughout the winter but began to look more certain once they signed star NPB third baseman Kazuma Okamoto and plugged him into an already crowded infield. There was still some room for Bichette to return, but Toronto’s focus has reportedly been on Tucker. With Bichette now formally out of the picture, they’re lined up to go with Ernie Clement at second base, Gimenez at shortstop and Okamoto/Addison Barger at third base.

As for the Phillies, they’ve made their own immediate pivot, upping their offer to give longtime catcher J.T. Realmuto the third year he’s sought. Less than two hours after the Bichette agreement broke, Realmuto and the Phillies had a new deal in place. Philadelphia had reportedly only been comfortable signing one of Bichette or Realmuto, with the recent preference seeming to be the former. A Bichette signing would likely have led to Realmuto going elsewhere and one of Alec Bohm or Bryson Stott being traded. Trading either feels less likely — but certainly not impossible — now that Bichette is in Queens and Realmuto is staying put.

Even Bichette himself will now have major questions to consider in the near-term future. With a big season, he’ll assuredly opt out of his contract, cashing in $47MM (or thereabouts, depending on the division of salary) for one year and re-entering the market as a 28-year-old who can’t receive a qualifying offer. If he can do that and prove himself capable of playing an average or better third base, he could come out hundreds of millions ahead. That’s far from a given, though, and he’ll need to make that decision against the backdrop of a looming work stoppage.

It’s a dizzying sequence of interwoven, high-priced payouts for star players — the ramifications of which will reach further than we can accurately predict at this time. It seems clear that the Mets have at least one move coming with regard to their infield glut, and they’re still in search of help both in the rotation and in the outfield. With Tucker and Bichette coming off the board within a matter of 15 hours, Cody Bellinger suddenly stands as the top position player available — possibly with several clubs now keying in on him and providing more pressure for the incumbent Yankees to bridge the gap between their five-year offer and his seven-year ask. Will Bellinger similarly pivot to a short-term, high-AAV contract? If so, will that be in the Bronx or with a new club?

Questions abound, and there are surely several moves yet to be made, but the Mets are a more talented and more dangerous team now than they were this time yesterday — even if it’s not due to the player they were originally targeting. Their pivot is likely only just beginning, but adding a prime-aged, multi-time All-Star who has twice led the American League in hits is a pretty good first step in a pivot.

Will Sammon of The Athletic first reported the agreement and contract length. The New York Post’s Jon Heyman added the total guarantee and no-trade clause. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic added details regarding the opt-outs and lack of deferrals. Jon Morosi of the MLB Network reported that Bichette was likely to play third base in Queens.

Ha-Seong Kim Out Four To Five Months Following Hand Surgery

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The Braves announced this afternoon that infielder Ha-Seong Kim suffered a hand injury while in South Korea and underwent surgery to repair a torn tendon in his right middle finger. The procedure was performed today in Atlanta and the expected recovery time is 4 to 5 months, per the announcement. MLB.com’s Mark Bowman reports that Kim suffered the injury after falling on ice.

It’s a brutal revelation for the Braves, who claimed Kim off waivers from the Rays back in September in hopes of luring him to Atlanta for the 2026 season as well. While he opted out of his player option for the 2026 campaign, he eventually re-signed with the Braves on a one-year, $20MM deal back in December. Bringing Kim back into the fold was one of their biggest splashes this winter, alongside the addition of Robert Suarez to the back of the bullpen. Kim also figured to address perhaps the biggest weakness of their entire roster; the team’s 54 wRC+ at shortstop last year was dead last in the majors, and their 0.4 fWAR at the position bested only the Guardians and Rockies. When healthy, Kim is a reliable three-to-four win player thanks to his roughly league average bat and phenomenal defense.

Unfortunately, “when healthy” is becoming an increasingly key phrase when discussing Kim’s career. He suffered a torn labrum in his right shoulder in August of 2024 that brought his time with the Padres to an abrupt end, leaving him sidelined for the stretch run and the Padres’ efforts to get past the eventual World Champion Dodgers in a hotly contested NLDS that San Diego ultimately lost in five. The Rays had enough faith in his talent to sign Kim to a two-year guarantee last winter, even knowing that he would miss the first few months of the season while rehabbing from surgery on his aforementioned torn labrum. That gamble did not pay off. Kim didn’t make his Rays debut until after the All-Star break last year as recovery from surgery took longer than expected, and he wound up heading back to the injured list multiple times due to back and calf injuries.

Kim seemed like a lock to pick up his 2026 player option when he was claimed off waivers by Atlanta, but a solid showing in 24 September games with the Braves convinced him to test the market. That proved to be a savvy decision, as the Braves ultimately brought him back on a higher salary than he would’ve made had he simply accepted his $16MM option. While the deal cost Atlanta an extra $4MM, it was easy to see why they’d be willing to make that bet on a player with Kim’s talent, particularly given their needs at shortstop and the thin market around the rest of the roster. Kim could certainly help to rejuvenate what was a sluggish offense last year by providing a massive upgrade over incumbent shortstop Nick Allen, who was traded to Houston earlier this winter.

They’ll now have to wait to feel that impact until near the end of the first half, at the earliest. The early end of Kim’s recovery timeline would put him back on the field in mid-May, but he well might need extra time to ramp up after missing all of Spring Training and spending much of last year on the injured list as well. In the meantime, the Braves have utility man Mauricio Dubon to turn to as their everyday shortstop. Dubon is miscast as an everyday regular but should be a decent enough fill-in option. Losing his versatile glove from the bench puts pressure on the rest of the roster, and an Atlanta offense that looked generally complete this morning could now clearly use another addition, even if that player is just a depth option.

Bringing someone like Isiah Kiner-Falefa into the fold would certainly help stabilize things, but after the Braves scaled their payroll up by nearly $50MM this winter (according to RosterResource) with the additions of Kim, Suarez, and Mike Yastrzemski it’s hard to say if there’s room in the budget for even that sort of mid-level signing. The market for shortstop help is exceedingly thin at this point, but perhaps a depth signing like Jorge Mateo could help fill out the roster until Kim returns. Of course, president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos is known for his creativity and could look to explore the trade market for help. Cubs second baseman Nico Hoerner has been widely discussed in trade rumors this winter, particularly after the club’s recent signing of Alex Bregman, and has played shortstop well in the past. The Mets have a cadre of infield talent that’s been squeezed out by the Bo Bichette deal, but it’s unclear if the team would be willing to trade someone like Ronny Mauricio or Luisangel Acuna within the division.

Ryan Pressly Announces Retirement

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Two-time All-Star reliever Ryan Pressly has decided to retire after 13 Major League seasons.  In a statement to The Athletic’s Chandler Rome and Ken Rosenthal, Pressly said his decision is “bittersweet, but what a ride it’s been….The friendships — from bullpen brothers to vets who mentored me along the way — those bonds last a lifetime.  I’ll miss the banter in the ‘pen, the inside jokes that kept us loose on those high-leverage nights.  But I’m fired up for this next chapter with my family, and chasing whatever adventure comes next.”

Pressly retires with a 3.33 ERA, 25.2% strikeout rate, 48.5% grounder rate, and 7.2% walk rate over 691 1/3 career innings with the Twins, Astros, and Cubs.  Since the start of the 2013 season, only six pitchers have appeared in more games than Pressly, who made 667 trips from the bullpen to the mound.

Never a big velocity pitcher, Pressly succeeded thanks to an excellent slider-curveball combination, and a ton of spin on both his curve and fastball.  From 2017-25, Pressly ranked in no less than the 99th percentile of all pitchers in curveball spin, and no less than the 95th percentile in fastball spin rate.  These fantastic spin rates helped Pressly miss a lot of bats, and turn a lot of hard contact into easy outs on the ground.

Originally an 11th-round pick for the Red Sox back in the 2007 draft, Pressly never pitched for Boston at the MLB level, as the Twins plucked him out of Boston’s farm system in the 2012 Rule 5 Draft.  Pressly had never even pitched at the Triple-A level before making his big league debut with Minnesota in 2013, but he hit the ground running with a 3.87 ERA over 49 games and 76 2/3 frames, immediately establishing himself as a multi-inning bullpen workhorse.

Injuries and a couple of stints in the minors interrupted Pressly’s time with the Twins, but his solid work saw him receive more high-leverage opportunities.  By the time Minnesota dealt Pressly to Houston at the 2018 trade deadline, the right-hander was acting as the Twins’ set-up man, and he continued that role in the Astros’ relief corps.  Pressly was outstanding down the stretch for the Astros in 2018, and his excellent work as a set-up man in 2019 earned Pressly his first All-Star nod.

This led to another promotion to the closer’s job in 2020, kicking off a four-year stint that saw Pressly record 102 saves in 118 chances while recording a 2.99 ERA, 31.5% strikeout rate, and 6.2% walk rate.  Despite this high-profile role on a playoff regular, Pressly’s success flew somewhat under the radar — perhaps because he never received many free agent headlines since the Astros kept (wisely) extending him.

Pressly inked a two-year, $17.5MM deal in advance of the 2019 season that became a three-year, $27.5MM deal after he reached enough appearances to trigger a vesting option for the third year.  In April 2022, Pressly signed another extension that ended up paying him $42MM over a three-year span (2023-25) once he hit another vesting threshold.  While it’s possible Pressly might’ve banked a bit more money if he’d tested the open market, he was very happy playing close to home (Pressly hails from Dallas and his wife is from Houston) and playing for a frequent contender.

The Astros’ regular trips to the postseason allowed Pressly the chance to shine on the biggest stages in baseball, and he delivered with a 2.78 ERA over 45 1/3 career playoff innings, including a streak of 22 2/3 innings without allowing an earned run.  Pressly’s run in Houston was highlighted by the team’s World Series title in 2022, and he threw the final inning of the Astros’ combined no-hitter in Game 4, and he picked up the save in both Game 5 and the clinching Game 6.

Despite Pressly’s continued success at closer, the Astros chose to double down on their relief depth by acquiring Josh Hader during the 2023-24 offseason, which resulted in Pressly’s return to a set-up role.  While he continued to pitch well, his $14MM price tag got a bit too hefty for an Astros team trying to limit its luxury tax bill, and Pressly agreed to waive his no-trade protection to approve a deal to the Cubs last winter.  Unfortunately for Pressly, he struggled in what ended up being his final MLB season, and Chicago released the reliever in August.

It was a little surprising that Pressly didn’t catch on anywhere following the release, and both the Twins and Astros were reportedly considering reunions.  Retirement was apparently an option for Pressly even over the summer, however, and after some time to weigh the decision, he has decided to walk away from the game at age 37.

We at MLB Trade Rumors congratulate Pressly on an excellent career, and we wish him the best in his post-playing endeavors.

Phillies To Re-Sign J.T. Realmuto

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The Phillies and J.T. Realmuto have an agreement in place to reunite on a new deal. It’s reportedly a $45MM guarantee over three years for the CAA Sports client, with incentives worth $5MM annually. The Phils have a full 40-man roster and will need a corresponding move to make this official.

At the beginning of the offseason, it seemed likely that Realmuto and the Phils would get back together. That has come to pass but there were some notable twists and turns along the way.

Back in early December, it was reported that the Phils had an offer out to Realmuto. No specifics of that offer were reported but it the two sides were apparently far enough apart to explore other options. Just over a week later, it was reported that the Phils were looking into other potential solutions behind the plate. An even more ambitious pivot came to light in January. With infielder Bo Bichette unsigned, the Phils seemed to genuinely pursue him. Various reports suggested that if the Phils signed Bichette, they would have to move on from Realmuto and third baseman Alec Bohm.

That appears to check out from a financial point of view. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that the Phils thought they were going to sign Bichette for $200MM over seven years, an average annual value of $28.57MM. Realmuto was projected for something around $15MM annually, with MLBTR predicting him for a $30MM deal over two years at the beginning of the offseason. Bohm is going to make $10.2MM in his final season of club control.

Essentially, it seems the Phils were willing to spend another $15MM to $20MM on upgrading the lineup. Signing Bichette and then trading Bohm would have added about that much. But the Mets swooped in and have an agreement in place with Bichette, a three-year deal with huge average annual values and opt-outs after each season. That not only deprived the Phillies of Bichette but also landed him with a division rival. Barely an hour later, the Phils have quickly pivoted to the more straightforward path, bringing back their longtime stalwart behind the plate.

Though it is somewhat straightforward to bring back Realmuto, this is still a notable commitment. Realmuto turns 35 in March and will therefore play this deal through his age-37 season. There’s decline risk with any position player that age but particularly with catchers. Every backstop in the majors in 2025 was in his age-36 season or younger, except for Martín Maldonado, who is now retired. Realmuto was already one of the oldest full-time catchers in the league last year. Salvador Perez is one year older but even he has started to spend more time at first base or as the designated hitter in recent seasons.

Realmuto and Perez have been the two workhorses of the position over the past decade-plus. Dating back to the start of the 2015, Realmuto has appeared in 1362 games and Perez 1304. However, Realmuto actually appeared as a catcher in 1,252 of those contests whereas Perez only put on the gear for 980. That kind of workload can be an argument for or against Realmuto. His ability to shoulder a massive workload relative to his peers is right there in the numbers but that could also be the very thing that works against him as he ages.

The signs of decline are already somewhat apparent. At the plate, Realmuto has clearly fallen from his peak. From 2018 to 2022, when he was in his late 20s and early 30s, he produced a combined .272/.339/.476 batting line. That resulted in a 118 wRC+, indicating he was 18% better than the league average hitter for that span. Over the past three years, he has slashed .257/.315/.421 for a wRC+ of 100. In 2025, he hit .257/.315/.384 for a wRC+ of 94. That’s still pretty good for a catcher, as backstops generally hit about 10% worse than the league-wide average, but the trend lines aren’t great.

There are yellow flags on the defensive side as well. Outlets like FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus and Statcast ranked him as an above-average pitch framer from 2018 to 2022 but with negative grades over the past three years. His grades for controlling the running game and blocking pitches haven’t declined as consistently across all out those outlets but there has been a bit of downward creep. Statcast, for instance, had him as a subpar blocker in the past two years.

Taking the Perez route and coming out from behind the plate isn’t a likely in Philadelphia. As mentioned, Realmuto’s offense has been declining, which wouldn’t be ideal for him if he were at first base or in the designated hitter slot. The Phils don’t have those opportunities available for him regardless, with Bryce Harper locked in at first base and Kyle Schwarber essentially a full-time DH. Harper is signed through 2031 and Schwarber 2030.

All those concerns are presumably things the Phillies are aware of, thus explaining why they toyed with the idea of a future without Realmuto. But despite all the concerns, Realmuto was still the best free agent catcher available this winter and the Phils clearly needed to do something. Rafael Marchán and Garrett Stubbs are on the roster but neither would have been an ideal everyday option behind the plate. Stubbs has 203 big league games under his belt with subpar offense and defense. Marchan’s big league numbers are a bit more encouraging but he has just 82 games under his belt.

In the end, the Phils are sticking with the devil they know. Though there are real concerns in the numbers, there are also the unquantifiable things to consider with a catcher. The Phils have seen Realmuto work with their pitchers for seven years now and presumably are happy to have him continue doing that for another three years.

It appears the 2026 Phillies are going to look a lot like the previous versions of the team, with a few modifications. Adolis García will take over in right field, with Nick Castellanos likely to be jettisoned at some point. Ranger Suárez is gone, having an agreement in place with the Red Sox, but the Phils will hope Andrew Painter can step up to replace him on the pitching chart. Justin Crawford will hopefully take over center field. Their two big free agents this winter, Schwarber and Realmuto, have been re-signed.

That leaves the Phils with the same core, which can be argued to be good or bad going forward. It has certainly been a good core in the past. They’ve won at least 87 games in four straight seasons. They made the World Series in 2022 and won the National League East in the past two campaigns. But Schwarber will turn 33 this year, as will Trea Turner and Aaron Nola. Harper’s already that age. Zack Wheeler turns 36 this year. As mentioned, Realmuto will be 35 in a few months. Everyone in that group is signed for at least two more seasons but often far more.

Spending so much money on that veteran core has pushed the payroll up. RosterResource estimates the Phils to have a $281MM payroll and $317MM competitive balance tax figure. The annual breakdown of Realmuto’s deal hasn’t yet been reported but the CBT won’t be impacted by that, since that number is calculated based on AAV. The Phillies are in the highest possible realm of taxation, both because they have paid the tax in at least three straight years and because their CBT number is above the top threshold of $304MM.

They were just under that top line coming into today, facing a 95% tax rate. The Realmuto deal has blown them past it, well into the area where they pay a 110% tax on new spending. This will therefore add roughly $15MM to their tax bill this year on top of the money going to Realmuto himself.

Realmuto had a fairly quiet market but was connected to the Red Sox at one point. With Realmuto and Danny Jansen signed, the top remaining catcher free agents include Victor Caratini, Jonah Heim and others.

Ken Rosenthal and Matt Gelb of The Athletic first reported the two sides were close. Bob Nightengale of USA Today and Robert Murray of FanSided reported the agreement was in place and provided specifics of the contract. Photos courtesy of Kyle Ross, Jayne Kamin-Oncea, Imagn Images

Elly De La Cruz Declined Franchise-Record Offer From Reds In 2025

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The Reds made an unsuccessful effort at locking up Elly De La Cruz last spring. While details were sparse at the time, president of baseball operations Nick Krall revealed today the team made an official offer that would have topped their 10-year, $225MM franchise-record deal with Joey Votto.

“We made Elly an offer that would’ve made him the highest-paid Red ever,” Krall said (link via C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic). “That’s not where he is and you respect that. It’s their career. You keep going and you keep working on what you can do today.” De La Cruz opted not to go into specifics, telling fans at Redsfest only that he leaves contractual matters to his agent, Scott Boras.

The offer came on the heels of De La Cruz’s first full season in the big leagues. He hit 25 home runs and led the majors with 67 stolen bases while batting .259/.339/.471 in a little under 700 plate appearances. A switch-hitting shortstop with a massive power-speed combination, De La Cruz was a top 10 MVP finisher in his age-22 season. He had arguably been MLB’s #1 prospect before his promotion. It was enough for the Reds to safely consider him the face of the franchise.

As shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, any extension above Votto money would have been a record for a player with fewer than two years of service. Julio Rodríguez holds that mark on his extension with the Mariners. That technically comes with a $210MM guarantee but has a massive escalator/option structure that could push the value closer to half a billion dollars. The player’s earning ceiling climbs as they approach arbitration. Fernando Tatis Jr. (14 years, $340MM) and Bobby Witt Jr. (11 years, $288.78MM) each commanded much bigger guarantees when they signed extensions at exactly two years of service.

Krall didn’t specify where the offer to De La Cruz would have landed in comparison to those precedents. Witt is an MVP-caliber player now but had some similarities to De La Cruz at the time he signed his extension over the 2023-24 offseason. He was also a former #1 prospect with the tools to be a franchise shortstop. Witt had hit .276/.319/.495 with 30 homers and 49 steals in the season preceding his long-term deal. He was already a star but had yet to level up to the player who’d win a batting title with an OPS pushing 1.000. Witt’s deal also built in four opt-out chances that could get him to free agency as early as his age-31 season — a time when a decade-long contract could be in the cards.

Whatever the specifics, De La Cruz has thus far opted to bet on himself. That’s the usual path for Boras Corporation clients, especially those who have yet to qualify for arbitration. He played on a pre-arbitration salary last year and will do the same in 2026. De La Cruz will qualify for arbitration next offseason and is under club control for four seasons. He’s on track to hit free agency at age 28.

De La Cruz’s production backed up a little bit in his second full season. He hit .264/.336/.440 with 22 longballs and 37 stolen bases. His average and on-base percentage were essentially unchanged, but his power and baserunning each took slight steps back. It’s unlikely to change much about how the Reds view him. De La Cruz started all but one game as the Reds battled for the National League’s final playoff spot. Krall said earlier in the offseason that De La Cruz played through a strained left quad. The injury and potential fatigue wore on him in the second half, as he hit .236/.303/.363 after the All-Star Break. He had carried a .284/.359/.495 slash with 25 steals into the Midsummer Classic.

Cincinnati will probably take another run at extension talks this spring, though it’d be a surprise if they get anything done. He’ll remain the team’s most important position player in either case. Krall made clear they’re committed to De La Cruz at shortstop, where he has a cannon arm but has led MLB in errors in consecutive seasons. He should lead the way offensively if he’s fully healthy, with his physical gifts giving him one of the highest ceilings in the league.

Twins Sign Victor Caratini

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The Twins announced the signing of catcher Victor Caratini to a two-year contract. It’s reportedly a $14MM deal for the ACES client.

Caratini, now 32, was a free agent a couple of years ago. He signed a two-year, $12MM deal with the Astros at that time. That pact ended up working out fairly well for Houston. The switch hitter got into 201 games over those two seasons and stepped to the plate 660 times. His 7% walk rate was on the low side but he hit 20 home runs and kept his strikeout rate down to a modest 17.9% clip. He had a combined .263 /.329/.406 line with the Astros, production which translated to a wRC+ of 108.

His work behind the plate has been more of a mixed bag. Outlets like FanGraphs, Statcast and Baseball Prospectus give him solid framing grades. FanGraphs and Statcast don’t look kindly on his work with the running game but both BP and Statcast are fond of his blocking skills.

The overall package was still worth 2.7 wins above replacement over the past two seasons, according to FanGraphs. At the beginning of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Caratini for a $14MM deal over two years. He has hit that mark exactly.

The Twins already have a pretty strong catcher in Ryan Jeffers but it’s possible to see how he and Caratini could co-exist on the same roster. Jeffers hits from the right side and has pretty noticeable platoon splits in his career. He has a .270/.371/.475 line and 138 wRC+ against southpaws but a .226/.299/.396 line and 94 wRC+ otherwise. The switch-hitting Caratini has generally been more balanced. He had a .208/.306/.434 line and 108 wRC+ against lefties last year and a .268/.327/.399 line and 104 wRC+ against righties.

Caratini has also dabbled at first base, with 463 2/3 innings at that spot in his career, including 97 last year. The Twins project to have Josh Bell at first base, another switch hitter. Bell has pretty neutral career splits but hit just .151/.250/.302 against lefties last year. A tiny .162 batting average on balls in play surely hurt him in the split but the Twins might want to at least have a contingency plan in place in case Bell’s struggles against southpaws continue.

Perhaps the plan is for Caratini to share time with Jeffers behind the plate, occasionally protecting him from tough righties, while also playing first on occasion. With Jeffers an impending free agent, Caratini could then take on a more prominent role in 2027.

It’s also possible that Jeffers ends up on the trade block. He will make $6.7MM in his final year before hitting the open market. Signing Caratini and then flipping Jeffers would be a relatively cash-neutral move for the Twins, which would bring back whatever Jeffers could get on the trade market.

The Twins also have Alex Jackson on the roster. He was acquired from the Orioles in November. He and the Twins avoided arbitration earlier this month by agreeing to a $1.35MM salary. Jhonny Pereda is also on the 40-man but he is still optionable and could be kept in Triple-A.

If the Twins plan to hang onto both Caratini and Jeffers, then Jackson could get squeezed from the roster, since he is out of options. If he were to be passed through waivers, he would likely stick around as non-roster depth. He has more than three years of service time but less than five. That means he would have the right to elect free agency but would have to forfeit his remaining salary commitments in exercising that right.

Time will tell about the domino effects. For now, the Twins have made a modest upgrade to their roster. Minnesota is looking to scale back payroll relative to 2025 but have some powder dry. They cut a lot of money from the budget last year by trading Carlos Correa and almost their entire bullpen. It’s been suggested they could look to start the 2026 season in the range of $115MM. RosterResource pegs them at $107MM, assuming the Caratini guarantee is evenly distributed.

The bullpen could still use a bit of help and maybe they still have some spending capacity for that. Trading Jeffers would give them a bit more breathing room, while also potentially bringing back something useful.

For the catching market more generally, it’s possible there’s a mini run happening here in the middle of January. The offseason started with J.T. Realmuto as the top available free agent, followed by Caratini and Danny Jansen. The Rangers non-tendered Jonah Heim in November and then signed Jansen in December but the market stayed on the quiet side for a while, perhaps due to the Phillies exploring the possibility of signing Bo Bichette. Going down that road likely would have prevented the Phils from having enough money to re-sign Realmuto.

In the past 24 hours, a lot has changed. The Dodgers reached a deal with Kyle Tucker. The Mets, who were hoping to sign Tucker, pivoted to Bichette via a short-term deal with big average annual values. The Phils, who offered Bichette a longer deal with less annually, then pivoted to reaching a new agreement with Realmuto.

That left Caratini as the clear top option remaining in free agency. According to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, the Phils viewed him as a backup plan if they didn’t get something done with Realmuto. It is perhaps not a coincidence then that the Twins have snatched up Caratini just a few hours after the reported of Realmuto going back to Philly.

The Astros had some interest in bringing Caratini back but figured he would get a better paycheck and a bigger role elsewhere, reports Chandler Rome of The Athletic. Just before this reported agreement with the Twins, Chris Cotillo of MassLive floated Caratini as a potential fit for the Red Sox. There are presumably other teams looking for catching upgrades as well.

With Realmuto and Caratini both coming off the board today, the market looks noticeably less exciting. Heim is one of the more notable free agents still available, alongside Luke Maile, Elias Díaz, Reese McGuire, Christian Vázquez, Mitch Garver and Gary Sánchez. Perhaps that will work to Minnesota’s advantage if they are looking to make Jeffers available.

Robert Murray of FanSided first reported the Twins and Caratini had a two-year deal. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported the $14MM guarantee. Photos courtesy of Brett Davis, Tim Heitman, Imagn Images

Rays, Angels, Reds Agree To Three-Team Trade Involving Josh Lowe, Gavin Lux

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While Kyle Tucker dominated baseball’s headlines, the Rays, Angels and Reds worked out a three-team trade. Outfielder Josh Lowe heads from Tampa Bay to the Angels. The Rays acquire utilityman Gavin Lux from Cincinnati and minor league pitcher Chris Clark from the Halos. The Reds get left-handed reliever Brock Burke from Los Angeles. The deal was finalized on Friday morning.

It’s the second trade involving an everyday outfielder for the Angels this offseason. This time, the player is coming their way. Lowe will fill the outfield void left by Taylor Ward, who was shipped to Baltimore for Grayson Rodriguez. Tampa Bay entered the winter with a pair of Lowes, but the club will head into 2026 without either one. The versatile Lux can fill the void left by the Brandon Lowe deal. Cincinnati nets a veteran southpaw, while also getting off the $5.525MM contract Lux received in arbitration. Burke will make about half of that this season.

Lowe seemed like a fixture in Tampa Bay’s lineup after a massive 20/30 campaign in 2023. He posted a 135 wRC+ in his first season as a regular. Injuries would stifle his production the next two seasons. Oblique and hamstring issues delayed the start of his 2024 season. The oblique cost him time later that year, and then again at the beginning of this past season. He wasn’t productive when healthy this year, stumbling to a career-worst 79 wRC+ behind a .220/.283/.366 batting line. Lowe hit .139 with a 35.3% strikeout rate in his final month with the team.

With Ward gone and Mike Trout penciled in at DH, the Angels had limited options in the outfield prior to the move. Lowe will now slot in alongside Jo Adell and Jorge Soler. The Rays shielded him from lefties for much of his time there, and with good reason. Lowe has a .504 OPS and a 33% strikeout rate in his limited work against same-handed pitching (288 plate appearances). He could be ticketed for regular at-bats given the lack of a platoon partner. The right-handed bench outfielder is currently Bryce Teodosio, a glove-first option. Trout only made 22 starts in the outfield last season, but that could change considering the alternatives.

A former first-round pick, Lowe is a plus runner who has slightly above-average bat speed. The aforementioned 20-30 season hints at his physical upside, but the durability and strikeout concerns kept him from establishing himself as a cornerstone player. He has only once reached 500 plate appearances in a season.

Lowe played a little bit of center field early in his career. The vast majority of his experience has come in right, and he has only logged seven innings up the middle over the past two seasons. He’d be stretched in center defensively, yet that’s also true of Trout and Adell. The Halos will probably need to live with rough up-the-middle defense from Lowe or Adell to get a better bat than Teodosio’s in the lineup, at least until 20-year-old center field prospect Nelson Rada arrives.

Tampa Bay and Lowe settled on a $2.6MM deal to avoid arbitration this year. It was his first trip through the process. He’s controlled for three seasons and still has a minor league option remaining, so the Halos could send him down without putting him on waivers. The Angels’ estimated payroll on RosterResource still sits at about $30MM below last year’s mark.

The Reds acquired Lux last offseason in a trade with the Dodgers. He delivered league-average results at the plate in his lone season in Cincinnati, hitting .269/.350/.374 with five homers over a career-high 503 plate appearances. Lux made most of his appearances in left field, while also spending time at second base and third base. He was also used frequently as a pinch hitter.

Lux was one of Cincinnati’s more reliable on-base hitters, but he has never developed into much of a power threat. The former top prospect hasn’t hit more than 10 homers in any of his five-plus MLB seasons. Last winter’s change of scenery trade and move to Great American Ball Park didn’t really move the needle. The left-handed hitter has a solid offensive floor but probably doesn’t have much untapped upside as he enters his age-28 season.

The bigger drawback is that Lux has never settled into a clear positional home. He has moved around less because he’s an incredibly versatile and more due to his defensive struggles at various positions. His throwing accuracy has been an intermittent issue on the infield, even at second base. Defensive metrics haven’t looked favorably upon his work in the corner outfield.

The Rays had a clear gap at second base after the (first) Lowe trade. The internal choices were uninspiring, though Richie Palacios has some similarities as a left-handed hitter whose game is built around his on-base skills. Lux should step into a near-everyday role, with Tampa Bay’s typical platoon shenanigans likely capping his reps against left-handed pitching. He could also get some rotational corner outfield work, replacing Josh Lowe as a lefty bat in an outfield that remains without much certainty. Lux is a one-year addition who’ll reach free agency for the first time next winter.

The Angels claimed Burke, coincidentally a former Rays’ draftee, off waivers from the Rangers in August 2024. His one-and-a-half years with the club represented one of the better stretches of his big league career. Burke put together a 3.40 ERA across 90 appearances as an Angel. He pitched in a career-high 69 games last year. The 29-year-old is in his final year of arbitration and will hit free agency next season.

Burke was able to tap into more velocity after joining the Angels. He sat 94-95 mph after transitioning from the rotation to the bullpen with the Rangers. In L.A., Burke bumped his heater to 96 mph. He also upped his slider usage with the club. Burke had a career-high 30.5% strikeout rate with the Angels in 2024. That number fell by more than 10 points in 2025, but he counteracted it with a career-best 53.3% ground-ball rate. Burke doesn’t have huge platoon splits and isn’t a situational specialist so much as a generally steady arm whom Terry Francona can use in the middle innings.

Cincinnati relied on Taylor Rogers as its primary lefty last season, until he was sent to the Cubs at the deadline. The Reds have added Burke and Caleb Ferguson to fill the role for 2026. They also tendered a contract to the out-of-options Sam Moll, so it seems they’ll begin the season with three veteran lefties in the relief corps.

Clark was a fifth-round pick by the Angels in 2023. He posted a 4.73 ERA across 28 minor league appearances this past season. Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs praised Clark’s developing changeup and loose arm action heading into the 2025 campaign. The righty uses a sinker and sweeper as his two main pitches. A changeup would fit in nicely. The 24-year-old Clark topped out at Double-A last year. He made just one start at the level and will likely be back there to open the 2026 season.

Jeff Passan of ESPN was first on the trade. Respective images via Chris Tilley, Gary A. Vasquez of Imagn Images.

Rockies Sign Willi Castro To Two-Year Deal

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The Rockies and utility player Willi Castro have reportedly agreed to a two-year deal that guarantees the ISE Baseball client $12.8MM. Colorado has a full 40-man roster and will need to make a corresponding move to make this official.

Castro, 29 in April, just finished a strong three-year run as one of the better multi-positional players in the sport. That run ended with a deep slump just before he hit free agency but he has still secured a nice deal for himself.

He was non-tendered by the Tigers after the 2022 season and then landed with the Twins via a minor league deal ahead of the 2023 campaign. That minor league pact turned into a huge win for Minnesota. Castro cracked the Opening Day roster in 2023 and went on to have a strong season, getting into 124 games and stepping to the plate 409 times. The switch-hitter launched nine home runs and drew walks at an 8.3% clip. His .257/.339/.411 batting line led to a 107 wRC+, indicating he was seven percent above average at the plate overall. He also stole 33 bases in 38 attempts.

Defensively, he bounced all around the diamond, spending time in all three outfield spots and the three infield positions to the left of first base. He got strong marks almost everywhere the Twins put him. He even got a few mop-up appearances on the mound. The total package added up to 2.5 wins above replacement on the season, according to FanGraphs.

His 2024 season ended up being quite similar. He slashed .247/.331/.385 for a 106 wRC+, swiped 14 bags and played every position except for catcher and first base. His fWAR total nudged up to 2.9 in slightly more playing time.

Last year, he was on essentially the same pace through the trade deadline. He got into 86 games for the Twins, had a .245 /.335 /.407 batting line, 109 wRC+, and nine stolen bases while moving all around.

The Twins fell out of the race and pivoted to selling at the deadline. They flipped Castro to the Cubs for minor league pitchers Ryan Gallagher and Sam Armstrong. Castro’s performance plummeted after the swap. He slashed .170/.245/.240 for a wRC+ of just 40. He wasn’t helped by a .222 batting average on balls in play but the Cubs scaled back his playing time regardless. He only started two of the final 11 games of the regular season. He appeared in two playoff games for the Cubs but without getting sent to the plate.

That was unfortunate timing, with Castro just heading to the open market, but it was also only 110 plate appearances. It seemed possible that clubs would still value his versatility and would focus more on the positives of that three-year run, overlooking the poor finish. At the beginning of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Castro for a two-year, $14MM deal. In December, it was reported that Atlanta, Pittsburgh and Colorado were interested in Castro. The Rockies have landed him by giving him a solid two-year deal just below MLBTR’s prediction.

The Rockies don’t have a lot of certainty on their roster, which is to be expected for a team that just lost 119 games, getting to the century mark in the loss column for a third straight year. They tried bolstering the roster last winter with veteran utility signings. They gave Thairo Estrada $4MM and Kyle Farmer $3.25MM, both on one-year deals. Neither panned out. Estrada was injured for most of the year and hit just .253/.285/.370 in the 39 games he was able to play. Farmer avoided the injured list but put up an even less impressive line of .227/.280/.365.

Ideally, Castro will move past his struggles with the Cubs and return to form. Where he plays will depend upon what happens with the other young players on the Colorado roster. The outfield playing time will likely be divvied up to some combination of Brenton Doyle, Jake McCarthy, Mickey Moniak and Jordan Beck.

Ezequiel Tovar will be the regular at shortstop but the rest of the infield is fairly wide open. Adael Amador could play second but he also has just 164 big league plate appearances with a .176/.242/.250 line. Third baseman Kyle Karros got 156 plate appearances last year but hit just .226/.308/.277. Tyler Freeman will be in the mix somewhere as another multi-positional guy but he’s also coming off a subpar season. Ryan Ritter can also bounce around a bit but he has a .241/.296/.337 line in his 207 big league appearances.

With the Rockies so far from contention, they will be focused on development and will want to have playing time open for anyone in that group who earns it. Castro will likely change positions throughout the year depending on the health and performance of all those other guys. If his offense gets back to where it was during his time in Minnesota, then the Rockies will likely make him available on the trade block this summer, as they aren’t likely to return to contention during the course of this contract.

RosterResource now estimates the Rockies for a payroll of $110MM, assuming the money on this deal is equally distributed across the two years. They spent $124MM on last year’s club and could still have some powder dry if they’re planning for a similar level of spending this year. Earlier this month, general manager Josh Byrnes expressed a desire to add a couple of veterans to the rotation. They have since signed Michael Lorenzen but could still have room for one more starter. It’s also possible to see room for some relief pitchers or perhaps another infielder.

For clubs who missed on Castro, the free agent market still features a couple of other utility guys, including Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Ramón Urías, Adam Frazier, Enrique Hernández, Jon Berti, Jorge Mateo and others.

Jorge Castillo of ESPN first reported the Rockies and Castro had a two-year deal. Robert Murray of FanSided reported the $12.8MM guarantee. Photo courtesy of Jordan Godfree, Ron Chenoy, Imagn Images

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