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Latest On Mets’, Blue Jays’ Pursuit Of Kyle Tucker

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8:55am: ESPN’s Jeff Passan was a guest on Sportsnet in Toronto this morning and reported on air that the Blue Jays have been “the only team that has shown the willingness to go as deep as 10 years, potentially” (video link). Passan adds that a decision from Tucker could occur before the end of the week.

7:08am: The Mets have made a four-year offer to star outfielder Kyle Tucker, according to a report from Mike Puma of the New York Post. MLBNetwork Radio’s Jim Duquette suggested yesterday that the Mets were “likely” to extend their offer to four years yesterday. Tyler Ward reported as early as yesterday morning (prior to Duquette’s report) that the Mets had offered $200MM over four years.

Tucker, 29 this weekend, has had an unusually quiet market by the standards set by other recent top free agents like Juan Soto, Shohei Ohtani, and Aaron Judge, each of whom signed in December. Things have begun to ramp up in a big way this past week, however, and all signs have pointed towards a trio of teams emerging as the most likely landing spots for the multi-time All-Star: the Mets, the Blue Jays, and the Dodgers. Previous reporting has indicated that the Blue Jays have a long-term deal on the table for Tucker, while the Mets have preferred a shorter-term arrangement at a premium average annual value. Concrete reporting regarding the Dodgers’ pursuit of Tucker has been minimal, but previous comments by the front office throughout the winter have suggested a hesitance towards adding another long-term deal to their aging roster and blocking elite top outfield prospects like Zyhir Hope and Josue De Paula long-term.

Reporting on the Mets’ offers to Tucker has varied throughout the week. Initial reports suggested the club had made a three-year offer to Tucker within the $120MM to $140MM range, and later reporting indicated that the Mets had offered a $50MM AAV without a specific number of years attached to that report. This latest report of a four-year offer also comes without a specific AAV attached to it. That leaves open the possibility that New York has multiple offers on the table for Tucker, with varying annual salaries and contract structures that all fall under the more general umbrella of short-term with relatively high annual salaries. Of course, it’s also possible that the Mets have simply raised their offer over the past few days.

If owner Steve Cohen and his front office have offered Tucker $200MM or more over the next four seasons, that would surely be a difficult package to turn down without an incredible long-term offer. Tucker would be in line to re-enter free agency ahead of his age-33 season, and while he’d likely need to settle for another shorter-term contract headed into his mid-thirties it’s worth remembering that Kyle Schwarber landed a five-year, $150MM contract with the Phillies as a DH-only slugger headed into his own age-33 season earlier this winter. In that context, it’s not difficult to imagine Tucker earning $350MM or more over the remainder of his playing career if he were to complete a four-year deal at a $50MM AAV and sign another contract or two afterwards. It’s also possible (and perhaps even likely) that a shorter-term arrangement would come with at least one opt-out opportunity somewhere in the deal that would make it even easier for Tucker to return to free agency in search of a more lucrative offer.

On the other hand, it’s not hard to argue that Tucker is worth the exact sort of incredible long-term offer that would be worth passing on $200MM over four years in favor of. An All-Star in four consecutive seasons, Tucker finished fifth in AL MVP voting back in 2023 and since then has posted 9.2 bWAR and 8.7 fWAR in just 214 games with a .274/.388/.507 (152 wRC+) slash line to show for it. A tough second half with the Cubs last year and injuries that have limited him to that relatively light volume of games over the past two years have seemingly caused some level of concern among interested clubs, but the upside of adding a perennial MVP candidate to the middle of the lineup in his prime years is undeniable.

MLBTR’s own prediction for Tucker’s contract at the outset of the offseason was an 11-year, $400MM pact. That sort of contract would be a no-brainer to choose over a shorter-term deal, even at a $50MM AAV. How far below that figure a long-term offer could come in before Tucker would start to more seriously consider a short-term, high-AAV pact would surely depend on Tucker’s own personal tolerance for risk and desire for stability. It would certainly be bold to eschew something even in the range of the $330MM deal Bryce Harper landed in Philadelphia during the 2018-19 offseason, but a fair counterargument to that would be that Harper himself well might have come out ahead financially had he instead signed the reported short-term, $45MM AAV offer he received from the Dodgers that winter and returned to the market in a few years’ time.

Wherever Tucker will ultimately land, and whatever contract structure he will ultimately settle on, it’s increasingly likely his free agency is hurtling towards a conclusion in the coming days. The New York Post’s Jon Heyman reported earlier this morning that a decision from Tucker’s camp could come as soon as today, and given the frenzy of reporting over the past few days it seems likely that the parties involved are all in the process of making their top offers as Tucker nears a decision.

Cubs Sign Alex Bregman

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The Cubs have made their third-largest signing in franchise history official, announcing Wednesday that they’ve signed third baseman Alex Bregman to a five-year contract that’ll reportedly guarantee him $175MM. Bregman, a client of the Boras Corporation, receives a full no-trade clause. Unlike his prior contract with the Red Sox, there are no opt-out opportunities. The deal reportedly includes $70MM of deferred money, dropping the net present value from a $35MM average annual value to something in the $30-31MM range. A full breakdown of the deferrals can be found at the bottom of this post. He’ll be introduced in a press conference tomorrow morning at 10:30am CT.

When last offseason’s proposals fell short of Bregman’s expectations, he pivoted to a heavily-deferred three-year, $120MM deal with the Red Sox. The quality of his 2025 season, plus his ineligibility for a qualifying offer this time around, led to this long-term deal.

MLBTR projected a six-year, $160MM contract for Bregman back in November. He ultimately landed a bit shy of that on a five-year term, when accounting for deferrals. It’s still the largest average annual value in Cubs franchise history, and the total guarantee trails only Jason Heyward ($184MM) and Dansby Swanson ($177MM). The inclusion of deferrals is a notable departure for the Ricketts family ownership group; just last offseason, they appeared staunchly against utilizing deferred money in free agent negotiations.

For the Cubs, the addition of Bregman is the biggest splash in an active offseason. The club acquired young starter Edward Cabrera from the Marlins three days ago, adding upside to the rotation at the expense of a top-50 prospect in Owen Caissie. The Cubs have largely rebuilt their bullpen with a quintet of free agent signings: Phil Maton, Hunter Harvey, Caleb Thielbar, Hoby Milner, and Jacob Webb.  They also retained swingman Colin Rea and starter Shota Imanaga.

Bregman gives the Cubs a major offensive upgrade without the loss of a draft pick, as he rejected a qualifying offer from the Astros in 2024. His salary brings the team’s projected 2026 payroll to $231MM, a full $25MM over last year’s $206MM figure, according to RosterResource. Meanwhile, their CBT payroll stands around $243MM for 2026, putting the Cubs just shy of the first luxury tax threshold.  The Cubs did not exceed the CBT in 2025, so they’ll reside in the lightest tax bracket if they go over in ’26.

Bregman, 31, played in 114 games with Boston this year, making 495 plate appearances. Although he missed a month and a half with a right quad strain, he continued to excel on offense, batting .273/.360/.462 and grading out 25% better than average by wRC+. After posting a career-low 6.9% walk rate in his final year with the Astros, Bregman bumped that up to 10.3% in 2025. He maintained his reputation as a high-contact hitter, with his 14.1% strikeout rate grading out in the 88th percentile. His 90.1 mph average exit velocity and 44.4% hard-hit rate were both career bests. He also continued to perform well defensively, earning 3 Outs Above Average for his work at third base. Overall, Bregman’s 2025 contributions were good for 3.5 fWAR and his third career All-Star nomination.

A lot of that came from his red-hot first two months. At the time of his injury, Bregman had a 156 wRC+ through 226 PA. His production following his return was more uneven. He posted a 128 wRC+ in July, followed by a 108 wRC+ in August and just a 76 wRC+ in September. In the first half, Bregman was 52% better than average by wRC+. In the second half, he was right around average.

Though he wasn’t his usual self in the last two months of the year, Bregman’s lengthy track record still made him one of the top free agents in this year’s class. Since debuting with the Astros in 2016, he has batted .272/.365/.481 with 209 home runs and a 133 wRC+. His first two All-Star appearances came in 2018-19. Bregman averaged 8.1 fWAR and finished in the Top 5 in AL MVP voting in both years, finishing as the runner-up in 2019.

While he hasn’t reached those heights in the years since, Bregman has still been a well-above-average hitter. He has posted a wRC+ between 117 and 137 in every year from 2020-25. Bregman’s defense has also held firm. Since the start of 2020, he has been worth 10 DRS and 17 OAA. He ranks eighth among qualified third basemen in that span by OAA.

That track record, Bregman’s excellent clubhouse reputation, and his still-excellent 2025 drew ample interest in free agency. The Red Sox were clearly keen on a reunion, with recent reports indicating they had made him an “aggressive” offer. Outside of them and the Cubs, his known suitors included the Tigers, Diamondbacks, and Blue Jays (before they signed Kazuma Okamoto). The Tigers and Cubs were interested in Bregman last offseason as well. Detroit reportedly offered him six years and $171.5MM, albeit with significant deferrals. Chicago’s offer was in the four-year, $115MM range. One year later, the Cubs put forth more than $40MM more to lock him up, even when considering the surprising deferred money.

Bregman likely sought a $200MM guarantee during the 2024-25 offseason. He got to $215MM on paper in total, though deferred money on both contracts probably puts him a little short of a true $200MM.  Regardless, returning to the market after opting out of a short-term deal is a strategy we’ve seen Boras execute successfully with Bregman, Carlos Rodon, Blake Snell, Matt Chapman, and Pete Alonso in recent years, with Cody Bellinger serving as the next test case.

With Bregman slotting in at third base, the most impacted player on the Cubs’ roster is incumbent third baseman Matt Shaw. As a rookie, Shaw posted a .226/.295/.394 line in 437 plate appearances, good for a 93 wRC+. Factoring in his serviceable defense (-1 DRS), Shaw was worth 1.5 fWAR in 2025. That was acceptable production for the rookie and former top prospect, though there are clear areas for improvement heading into his sophomore season. Shaw’s average exit velocity and hard-hit rate ranked in the third and seventh percentiles, respectively. He also struggled against fastballs, with a -6 run value against sinkers and a -1 value against four-seamers.

Shaw came up through the system as a middle infielder before shifting to third base in earnest in 2024. At present, Swanson and Nico Hoerner occupy the shortstop and second base spots on the big-league roster. Swanson is under contract through 2029 and won’t be moving off short any time soon. Hoerner has been an above-average hitter and excellent defender in the past four seasons, tallying 17.5 fWAR. Hoerner moved to second base in 2023 in deference to Swanson.

With the 28-year-old Hoerner eligible for free agency after 2026 – with earning power likely to get a boost from his ability to play shortstop – his name has surfaced in trade rumors this winter. The best 2026 Cubs team has Hoerner at second base and Shaw in a utility infield role, but it’s at least conceivable that either player could be dealt this offseason.

For Red Sox fans, the past seven months have provided a painful sequence of events at third base.  Rafael Devers was dealt to the Giants in a surprise June blockbuster, and now Bregman has departed as well. According to Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe, the Red Sox “did not come close financially and were not willing to give Bregman a full no-trade clause.”

The Red Sox, the only team yet to have signed a Major League free agent this winter, could turn to Bo Bichette to play second base.  Bichette will likely require a long-term deal of his own, however, and chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has yet to sign a free agent for more than Bregman’s three years (which only lasted one).

Jon Heyman of the New York Post first broke news of the signing, with ESPN’s Jeff Passan adding terms and Bob Nightengale of USA Today providing further details. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported that the deal includes deferred money.

The full details of the deferrals were reported by Jay Cohen of The Associated Press. $15MM is deferred in 2026 and 2029, $10MM in 2027 and 2028, then $20MM in 2030. He will be paid the deferred money via eight annual instalment each July 31st from 2034 to 2041.

Cardinals Trade Nolan Arenado To Diamondbacks

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After more than a yearlong residency on the rumor mill, Nolan Arenado’s time in St. Louis is over. The Cardinals announced Tuesday that they’ve traded Arenado and cash to the D-backs in exchange for minor league right-hander Jack Martinez (Arizona’s eighth-round pick in the 2025 draft). The Diamondbacks are reportedly on the hook for a total of $11MM of the remaining $42MM owed to Arenado over the next two seasons. The Cardinals owe the remaining $31MM. Arizona’s 40-man roster had a vacancy but is now at capacity with the addition of Arenado.

With the Cardinals entering a rebuild under new president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom, trading the 34-year-old Arenado (35 in April) has been a primary goal this offseason. St. Louis has finally achieved that goal but paid a hefty price to do so. Arizona will be on the hook for just $5MM this season and $6MM next year.

Three years ago, a salary dump of Arenado would’ve been hard to imagine. He was a National League MVP finalist after hitting .293/.358/.533 with 30 home runs and his typical brand of elite defense during that 2022 season. His offense slipped considerably in 2023 (.266/.315/.459) but was still north of league average. It dipped to about average in 2024, however, and plummeted well below par this past season.

In 436 plate appearances with the Cardinals in 2025, Arenado turned in an anemic .237/.289/.377 batting line. By measure of wRC+, he was 16% worse than an average hitter at the plate. Arenado’s 12 home runs were his lowest in a full season since his rookie year back in 2013. This year’s 6.4% walk rate was his lowest since 2015. When considering that his 34.1% chase rate on pitches off the plate was also his worst since 2015, that’s not particularly surprising. Arenado’s 11.2% strikeout rate was one of the lowest in MLB and one of the best in his career, but he also posted his highest-ever infield fly rate — 16.5% of his fly-balls were harmless pop-ups — and recorded some of the worst exit velocity and hard-hit numbers of his career.

Suffice it to say, Arenado’s decline at the plate has been steep. He still possesses plus contact skills but will need to scale back his chase rate and cut out some of those weak pop-ups if he’s to improve in a meaningful way. Fortunately for Arenado, he’s going to a more favorable offensive environment than the one he’s been calling home in St. Louis. While Phoenix’s Chase Field isn’t the hitters’ haven it once was, it plays largely neutral to right-handed power now — a stark gain for Arenado relative to St. Louis’ Busch Stadium, which is the fifth-worst park for right-handed home run power over the past three years, per Statcast’s Park Factors.

Prior to adding Arenado, the Diamondbacks had been involved in the market for Alex Bregman. A match there always seemed like something of a long shot, given Arizona’s intent to reduce payroll in 2026, but the interest was legitimate. The Snakes quickly pivoted and brought in a much more affordable option to hold down the hot corner for the next two seasons. Arenado’s glove has also taken some steps back in recent years, but he’s still an above-average defender. He’ll give manager Torey Lovullo a quality pair of defenders on the left side of the infield, joining breakout shortstop Geraldo Perdomo in that regard.

Acquiring Arenado leaves the Diamondbacks with little opportunity for former No. 6 overall pick and top prospect Jordan Lawlar. Perdomo’s breakout appeared to push Lawlar down the defensive spectrum to third base, but he looked overmatched both with the glove and in the batter’s box during his first few tests against MLB pitching. The D-backs were considering giving him some time in the outfield, and perhaps with Jake McCarthy now in Colorado following this weekend’s trade, there’ll be a clearer path to that experiment. If not, Lawlar has a minor league option remaining and can be sent back to Triple-A (where he’s routinely thrashed opposing pitchers) — or even included in a potential trade package to address needs elsewhere on the roster.

Even with the Snakes looking to cut payroll, the addition of that fraction of Arenado’s contract amounts to little more than a footnote. He’s effectively replacing a league-minimum player, so this trade adds a net $4.2MM to the team’s books. Per RosterResource’s estimates, that brings Arizona’s payroll just north of $170MM. That’s more than $17MM shy of last year’s Opening Day payroll. An exact target isn’t clear, but there should be room to add a reliever or two, at the very least, and further trades could always change the payroll outlook one way or another.

If the money changing hands (and the frequent reporting in the year-plus leading up to today’s trade) wasn’t indicative enough that this amounts to a salary dump for St. Louis, the return should be. Martinez hasn’t pitched an inning in professional ball yet. The Diamondbacks selected him with their eighth-round pick last year out of Arizona State University. His $167K signing bonus checked in south of his No. 243 overall selection’s $223K slot value.

A 6’4″, 215-pound righty, Martinez started his college career playing Division-III ball before transferring twice and ending up in the Sun Devils’ rotation as a senior. He was tagged for a 5.47 ERA through 15 starts during his senior year. It’s not an encouraging number, but Martinez punched out 32.3% of his opponents and can run his fastball up to 97 mph, per MLB.com’s scouting report. He has a four-pitch mix with a changeup serving as his best secondary offering, but Martinez is a pure lottery ticket for the Cardinals’ reshaped player development department.

A year ago, the Cardinals thought they had worked out a trade to send Arenado the Astros. Arenado, however, invoked his no-trade protection to nix that arrangement, reportedly due to reservations about the Astros’ commitment to contending; Houston had just traded Kyle Tucker to the Cubs days prior to the nixed Arenado deal. Heading into the current offseason, Arenado was forthcoming about the fact that he’d be more open-minded to offseason trade scenarios than he was last winter.

That clearly seems to be the case, but the D-backs might’ve been a viable landing spot for him even if he were continuing to remain selective. Arizona may be scaling back payroll, but their signings of Merrill Kelly and Michael Soroka — plus their reported interest in the aforementioned Bregman — all signal a commitment to try to field a contender in 2026. Beyond that, Arenado is a Southern California native with a home in Arizona. There are geographic benefits that surely played into his decision to waive that no-trade clause for a move to the desert.

For the Cardinals, moving Arenado now clears a relatively nominal sum from the long-term books and furthers their goal of creating opportunities for younger players. It remains to be seen whether Arenado’s third base reps will go to Nolan Gorman, top prospect JJ Wetherholt or even former top prospect/third baseman-turned-outfielder Jordan Walker. Whoever takes up regular work at the hot corner will be a more viable long-term option at the position than Arenado is as he enters his mid-30s.

The trade of Arenado is the third of a big-name veteran on a large contract for the Cardinals this offseason. They’ve already traded Sonny Gray and Willson Contreras to the Red Sox. Those players were shipped out in separate deals, with St. Louis eating notable portions of money in those trades, too. Between Gray, Contreras and now Arenado, the Cardinals will be shelling out $59MM over the next two seasons to three players who are no longer on their books.

Eating that amount of money to facilitate the trades of three former All-Stars is unprecedented, but the Cardinals have been clear about their intent to rebuild the organization from the ground up, modernizing the player development department, analytics staff and various other components of the team’s baseball operations setup — all while affording younger and more controllable players the opportunity to establish themselves in the majors. With three pricey veterans gone, much of the heavy lifting has been taken care of, but the Cardinals are still widely expected to trade second baseman Brendan Donovan and left-handed reliever JoJo Romero before the season begins.

Katie Woo of The Athletic first reported that the two sides were in serious discussions. John Gambadoro of 98.7 FM Arizona Sports broke the news that an agreement was in place and added that Martinez was going back to St. Louis. Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic first reported details on the cash changing hands.

Marlins Trade Ryan Weathers To Yankees

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The Marlins moved another starter, trading Ryan Weathers to the Yankees for four prospects: outfielders Dillon Lewis and Brendan Jones and infielders Dylan Jasso and Juan Matheus. New York already had two openings on the 40-man roster, so no corresponding moves were necessary. Both teams have announced the deal.

It’s the second significant rotation move in as many weeks for Miami. The Fish swapped Edward Cabrera to the Cubs for a package led by rookie outfielder Owen Caissie on Wednesday. It’s surprising to see them pull the trigger on another deal to subtract a controllable starter. Cabrera and Weathers have each had trouble staying healthy, and Miami evidently preferred to stockpile position players over the pair of talented but risky starters.

Weathers, a 26-year-old lefty, is the son of longtime big leaguer David Weathers (who coincidentally was traded from the Florida Marlins to the Yankees at the 1996 deadline). This is the second time that Ryan Weathers finds himself on the move. The Padres selected him with the #7 overall pick in the 2018 draft. He made it to the majors within three years, no small feat for a pitcher who signed out of high school, but struggled in scattered looks with San Diego. The Friars dealt him to Miami at the ’23 deadline for first baseman Garrett Cooper.

The Weathers acquisition came a few months before Miami installed Peter Bendix atop baseball operations. Weathers has shown mid-rotation potential over the past couple seasons but hasn’t been able to put together a full showing. A strained index finger on his throwing hand cost him three months in 2024. He missed the first six weeks last year after suffering a forearm strain during Spring Training. Weathers returned and pitched well over five starts before going down again — this time with a lat strain that knocked him out into September.

Weathers has been limited to 24 starts and 125 innings over the past two years. He turned in a 3.74 earned run average with a solid 22% strikeout rate and lower than average 6.8% walk percentage. Weathers has pushed his average fastball into the 96-97 MPH range and can miss bats with his changeup and sweeper. At full health, he has looked like a potential third or fourth starter. He hasn’t been healthy for more than a couple months at a time since 2023.

Miami and Weathers settled on a $1.35MM salary last week. This offseason was his first of arbitration eligibility. He’ll go through the process at least twice more and won’t hit free agency until the 2028-29 offseason at the earliest. The Yankees are currently in the third tier of luxury tax penalization and taxed at a 95% rate on spending up to $304MM. Weathers’ modest salary means New York only takes on roughly $1.3MM in taxes to add him.

There’s also some roster flexibility, as the southpaw has one minor league option remaining. Weathers should break camp in Aaron Boone’s rotation assuming he gets through Spring Training healthy. Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón will open the season on the injured list, while Clarke Schmidt could miss the entire year after last July’s Tommy John procedure. Weathers slots alongside Will Warren and Luis Gil as their projected third through fifth starters behind Max Fried and Cam Schlittler. Any of Weathers, Warren or Gil could be optioned to Triple-A if everyone’s healthy once Rodón and/or Cole return.

The trade should increase Miami’s urgency to add an affordable starter via free agency. Eury Pérez and Sandy Alcantara are the only two locks for Clayton McCullough’s season-opening rotation. Braxton Garrett (internal brace) and Max Meyer (hip surgery) missed most or all of the 2025 season. They’re expected to be ready for Opening Day but should be on innings limits. Journeyman Janson Junk was a decent fifth starter, while Ryan Gusto and Adam Mazur have limited MLB experience.

There’s more upside coming through the pipeline. Highly-regarded prospects Thomas White and Robby Snelling have reached Triple-A. Snelling dominated over 11 starts there and has a strong chance to win a rotation spot out of Spring Training. Former second-rounder Dax Fulton is on the 40-man roster and has also reached Triple-A, though he’s coming off a less impressive season in the high minors.

It remains a high-ceiling group, especially once White and Snelling take the mound at loanDepot Park. They’re short a veteran at the back end whom they can rely upon for some innings. It’s likely they’ll dip into free agency for a starter on a one-year deal, as they did last winter with the Cal Quantrill signing. They should aim a little higher this time around since it’s not out of the question they compete for a playoff spot in 2026. Maybe a multi-year deal candidate like Zack Littell or Nick Martinez winds up dropping into their price range as Spring Training approaches. Jose Quintana, Martín Pérez and former Miami draftee Chris Paddack are all locks for one-year deals and would be more comparable to the Quantrill pickup.

Lewis is the biggest get of the four prospects. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reported last week that Miami evaluators were particularly bullish on the 22-year-old outfielder. His name came up in conversations between the teams when New York was pursuing Cabrera. While they didn’t find an agreeable package in those conversations, the Marlins found another way to add Lewis to the system.

A right-handed hitter, Lewis was a 13th-round pick in 2024 out of Queens University of Charlotte. While he didn’t enter pro ball with a ton of fanfare, he impressed pro scouts during his first full season. Baseball America recently ranked him eighth among Yankees prospects, while he slotted 16th in the system at MLB Pipeline.

Evaluators praise his center field defense and big exit velocities that hint at the raw power upside in his 6’3″ frame. He’s coming off a .237/.321/.445 slash with 22 home runs and 26 stolen bases in a pitcher-friendly setting in the low minors. Lewis struck out at a higher than average 23.5% rate, which is concerning for a college draftee who has yet to advance beyond High-A. There’s a decent amount of risk with questions about his hit tool and distance from the majors, but he’s another toolsy outfield pickup for a club that added Caissie last week.

Jones was another late-round college pick in 2024. A left-handed hitting center fielder out of Kansas State, he combined for a .245/.359/.395 line between High-A and Double-A. Jones walked in almost 15% of his plate appearances and stole 51 bases in 60 attempts. He’s listed at 5’10” and doesn’t have Lewis’ physical upside, but scouts praise his approach and speed. Baseball America ranked him 13th in the Yankees system, while he landed 15th on Pipeline’s ranking. There’s a decent chance he ends up as a fourth outfielder.

Jasso, 23, is a right-handed hitting corner infielder who spent last season in Double-A. He had a solid year, batting .257/.326/.400 with 13 homers. Jasso was a 2023 undrafted free agent whose minor league performance landed him in the back third of New York’s top 30 prospects. He should begin the season at Triple-A Jacksonville and could find himself in the MLB mix by the end of the year. He’ll be eligible for the Rule 5 draft next winter.

Miami rounds out the return with Matheus, a 21-year-old shortstop/third baseman out of Venezuela. The switch-hitter put together a .275/.365/.376 line with a 12.3% walk rate and 18.5% strikeout percentage in A-ball last year. Matheus is on the smaller side at 5’10” and hasn’t hit for more than five home runs in a season. He’s a lottery ticket potential utility player who’ll also be eligible for the Rule 5 draft after the ’26 season.

Jack Curry of The Yes Network first reported the Yankees were acquiring Weathers for four prospects. Craig Mish of SportsGrid had the full return. Image courtesy of Jim Rassol, Imagn Images.

Mets Reportedly Offer Kyle Tucker Short-Term Deal With $50MM AAV; Jays Have Made Long-Term Offer

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5:15pm: The Jays have made Tucker a long-term offer, reports Jesse Rogers of ESPN, though no details on that offer have been reported.

1:35pm: The Mets have made Tucker an offer with a $50MM AAV, per reports from John Mincone as well as Robert Murray of FanSided.

11:37am: The top free agent of the offseason is still unsigned with about a month to go until pitchers and catchers report to spring training. Some recent reporting, including from Jim Duquette of MLB Network Radio, has suggested the Blue Jays, Dodgers and Mets are the top suitors for Kyle Tucker at this point. All three have recently met with Tucker, either in person or over Zoom, per Duquette. Will Sammon of The Athletic reports today that the Mets are in the range of offering him $120MM to $140MM on a three-year deal. Sammon says the Mets could go higher and that Tucker could make his decision as soon as this week.

At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Tucker for a $400MM guarantee on an 11-year deal. That would be $36.36MM in terms of average annual value, paying him from his age-29 through age-39 seasons. That would be in line with other big deals for star-caliber position players.

In the past decade, eight position players have signed for nine years or longer: Juan Soto, Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge, Bryce Harper, Corey Seager, Manny Machado, Trea Turner and Xander Bogaerts. Ohtani got a $70MM AAV but with significant deferrals, knocking the net present value closer to the $45MM range. Soto got $51MM and Judge $40MM. The others were in the $25-35MM range.

It’s unknown what the Blue Jays or Dodgers are willing to offer Tucker but he remains unsigned into mid-January, meaning he hasn’t yet received an offer compelling enough for him to have put pen to paper.

In recent years, it’s become a standard move for a free agent with an underwhelming market to pivot to a short-term pact with high AAVs and opt-outs. Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa, Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman and Pete Alonso have gone down this road in recent years. Everyone in that group apart from Alonso took a three-year deal. Bregman’s was technically for $40MM annually but with deferrals knocking the NPV to the $30MM range. Correa had a $35.1MM AAV, Bellinger $26.7MM and Chapman $18MM. Alonso’s two-year deal had a $27MM AAV.

The plan in that case is to bank a decent amount of money before taking another crack at free agency. The hope would be to then have more luck finding a long-term deal with a better platform season and no longer being tied to qualifying offer penalties. A player can only receive a qualifying offer once in his career. Tucker just rejected a QO from the Cubs and whoever signs him now will be subject to the associated penalties.

This doesn’t always work out but has in many cases. Chapman eventually signed a $151MM extension with the Giants just before returning to free agency. Correa was going to get a $325MM deal from the Giants. Concerns about his physical put the kibosh on that but he still got a $200MM guarantee from the Twins. This winter, Alonso got $155MM from the Orioles. Bregman just got $175MM from the Cubs, though with deferrals knocking the NPV to somewhere in the $150MM range.

There’s also appeal for the team. They have to pay a premium salary and usually forfeit a draft pick or two, and maybe some international bonus pool space as well, but they avoid a long-term commitment. Since players generally decline in productivity as they push through their 30s, it’s understandable for a team to look to avoid length.

Sammon doesn’t mention opt-outs in his piece on the Mets’ offer but that would presumably be a component. From Tucker’s perspective, he’s coming off a couple of seasons undercut by injuries but is still relatively young, going into his age-29 season. A three-year deal with no opt-outs would see him return to free agency ahead of his age-32 season, whereas opt-outs would allow him to try the market again quicker.

Whether he and his representatives have any appetite for that kind of path is unknown. It’s perhaps worth mentioning that the five aforementioned guys who took short-term deals were all Boras Corporation clients. He’s also gone down that road with pitchers such as Blake Snell, Carlos Rodón and Jordan Montgomery. Tucker is not a Boras guy, as he’s represented by Excel Sports Management.

Perhaps Tucker would consider a short-term pact but that also depends what the other offers are. It has been speculated that the Dodgers would also prefer a short-term deal. They could use an outfield upgrade but their roster is one of the older ones in the league and they have a batch of top outfield prospects. Those prospects don’t offer immediate help, as most of them have only recently reached the Double-A level or haven’t even hit that run at all. A short-term deal for Tucker could allow them to upgrade on the grass until those younger guys become more viable big leaguers.

It’s been speculated that the Jays would be more willing to go a long-term deal. They recently signed Kazuma Okamoto but it was reported a week ago that they are still aggressively pursuing Tucker even after landing Okamoto. Toronto has spent aggressively this winter after making it to the World Series in 2025. They gave a nine-figure deal to Dylan Cease, then eight-figure deals to Cody Ponce, Tyler Rogers and Okamoto. That has pushed their payroll to new heights but that could be a byproduct of their deep run last year.

They also have a lot of money coming off the books after 2026, as George Springer, Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, Yimi García, Daulton Varsho and Eric Lauer are impending free agents. Myles Straw would also depart if his club option is turned down and José Berríos can opt out of his deal. That could prompt the Jays to be doubly aggressive now, while they still have all of that talent on the roster.

Next winter doesn’t really have a Tucker-level talent and is also likely to be disrupted by the lockout. If Tucker were to sign a short-term deal, he could again be the top free agent a year from now but would also throw himself into the lockout winter. A long-term pact would keep him away from whatever disruptions are coming a year from now.

For the Mets, they seemingly prefer to avoid long-term pacts at the moment. Since David Stearns has become president of baseball operations, they made an exception for the 26-year-old Soto but have otherwise not signed any deal longer than three years.

They certainly need help in the outfield though. They traded Brandon Nimmo to the Rangers for Marcus Semien. They currently have Soto in one corner and Tyrone Taylor in center. Prospect Carson Benge could seize an Opening Day job but he can play center. If Tucker were brought in to take one corner with Soto in the other, Benge and Taylor could have a spring battle for the center field gig. If Taylor were to win, Benge could get more Triple-A reps. If Benge were to win, Taylor could become a fourth outfielder.

Financially, there’s no real limit to what they could do. Owner Steve Cohen has shown himself willing to run the Mets up to having the top payroll in the league. They’ve had a fairly modest offseason, defined more by subtraction than addition. They sent out Nimmo and Jeff McNeil while also letting Alonso and Edwin Díaz sign elsewhere.

RosterResource projects them for a payroll of $295MM and a competitive balance tax number of $296MM. Those are big figures but the Mets finished 2025 at $340MM and $337MM in those categories, respectively. Paying Tucker something between $40MM and $47MM annually would get them right back around to last year’s range.

It would also presumably do a lot to quell the fan base, who are currently not thrilled by the familiar faces who have departed in the past few months. It would also prevent them from adding another big salary to the long-term books, as they are already set to pay Soto and Francisco Lindor huge annual sums through 2039 and 2031 respectively.

Photo courtesy of David Banks, Imagn Images

Giants Aggressively Pursuing Second Base Upgrade

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That the Giants are in the market for help at second base is well known at this point, but ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports that San Francisco has been particularly “aggressive” in its pursuit of late, with recent talks regarding a pair of NL Central standouts: Nico Hoerner of the Cubs and Brendan Donovan of the Cardinals. Both were known targets for the Giants already, but it’s notable that they’re ostensibly ramping up their efforts to make a deal happen.

Giants second basemen were among the least-productive in all of baseball in 2025, hitting a combined .217/.273/.343. The resulting 73 wRC+ (indicating they were 27% worse than average at the plate) ranked 27th in the majors, leading only the Angels, A’s and Rockies. Tyler Fitzgerald led San Francisco with 233 plate appearances as the team’s second baseman, followed by Casey Schmitt (193), Christian Koss (137) and Brett Wisely (43). All four posted well below-average numbers with the bat while playing second base (though Schmitt hit better while playing other positions and was close to league-average with the bat overall).

Either Donovan or Hoerner would stand as a major upgrade. Both will play next season at 29 years old. Both are established contact hitters with defensive versatility, although the presence of Matt Chapman and Willy Adames on the left side of the infield would lessen the Giants’ need to take advantage of that positional flexibility. Donovan, who agreed to a one-year deal worth $5.8MM to avoid arbitration last week, is controlled through the 2027 season. Hoerner is owed $12MM in the final season of his three-year, $35MM contract this season.

Donovan figures to be the more readily available of the two in trade talks. The Cardinals are in the early stages of a multiyear rebuilding effort under new president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom. They’ve already shipped out Sonny Gray and Willson Contreras in separate trades to the Red Sox, and they’ve been fielding interest in lefty JoJo Romero while also working to find a taker for Nolan Arenado. Donovan’s remaining two years of club control don’t align with a realistic path to contention in St. Louis, and of all the team’s offseason trade assets, he stands as the one most likely to net a significant return.

Since making his MLB debut four years ago, Donovan has done nothing but hit. He carries a lifetime .282/.361/.411 slash in the batter’s box (119 wRC+) and has regularly proven to be one of the game’s toughest strikeouts. He drew a walk in 8.2% of his plate appearances in 2025 (9.1% career) and fanned at only a 13% clip (13.5% career). Donovan’s power is below average — he’s never topped 14 homers in a season — but he’s a former All-Star and Gold Glove winner who can also handle third base and the outfield corners (and perhaps some shortstop, in a pinch).

Hoerner is statistically one of Donovan’s most comparable hitters. Over the past five seasons, his .285/.342/.388 line (106 wRC+) closely resembles Donovan’s production. Hoerner runs far more often (131 steals to Donovan’s 15) and would be a plus defender at shortstop if not for the fact that he slid over to second base in deference to Dansby Swanson at shortstop.

Unlike the Cardinals, however, the Cubs are in clear win-now mode. Trading Hoerner just days after agreeing to a five-year deal with Alex Bregman would offset much of the good brought about by that Bregman signing. Given that, it seems quite likely that the Cubs would seek immediate MLB talent in any trade involving Hoerner, and the cost of acquisition would be fairly steep. Chicago could always move former top prospect Matt Shaw to second base — he might be the heir-apparent there now anyhow — but the Cubs could also simply keep all three infielders for the 2026 season and use Shaw in a utility role before handing second base to him full-time in 2027.

Payroll-wise, the Giants should have little problem fitting either player into the picture. RosterResource currently projects a $185MM payroll for San Francisco. That’s up a few million from last year’s levels but also a ways shy of the $200MM franchise record set back in 2018. And considering the fact that over the past 18 months, ownership has made three separate nine-figure commitments (Chapman’s $151MM extension, Adames’ $182MM contract, the $250MM+ remaining on Devers’ contract), it stands to reason that they’re at least open to further additions.

It bears mentioning that there’s no indication from Passan that Hoerner and Donovan are the only two targets on which the Giants are focused. The free-agent market still has one high-profile option in Bo Bichette, and even if he lands elsewhere, that deal itself could create some potential avenues for the Giants to explore. If Bichette were to sign in Philadelphia, for instance, the Phillies might be more inclined to part with Bryson Stott than would otherwise be the case. If he ended up in Boston, the Red Sox might have some additional infielders to discuss in trades. There are various paths the Giants can consider and other needs left to address on the roster (namely the bullpen), but having added Tyler Mahle and Adrian Houser in the rotation, it appears second base is their focus for the time being.

Yankees, Cody Bellinger “At An Impasse” In Negotiations

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The Yankees’ attempt to reunite with free agent Cody Bellinger seems to have hit a wall. ESPN’s Buster Olney reports the two sides are “at an impasse.” New York is moving forward as if Bellinger is signing with another team and will look to make additions elsewhere, adds Olney.

Brendan Kuty of The Athletic reported on Thursday that the Yankees had an offer in to Bellinger for more than $30MM a year. Olney reiterated that figure, while also mentioning that the proposal on the table was for five years. Bellinger and his team (he’s a Boras Corporation client) have been pursuing a deal for seven years, while reports had New York preferring something in the four-to-five range.

A contract of five years at more than $30MM per season would be right in line with the deals inked by the top free agent bats this offseason. Pete Alonso got five years and $155MM from Baltimore. Kyle Schwarber returned to Philadelphia on a five-year, $150MM deal. The length of New York’s most recent reported offer would be an obvious sticking point for Bellinger’s camp, given their known preferences, but Olney added that they’re also looking to do better than the $30MM AAV.

Bellinger seemed to be New York’s main priority this offseason. Kyle Tucker is the premier hitter on the market, but reports suggested he was the Yankees’ backup plan to Bellinger. The club was only recently linked to Bo Bichette and has not been significantly connected to Alex Bregman.

The now 30-year-old Bellinger excelled in his lone season in the Bronx. He slashed .272/.334/.480 with 29 home runs across 152 games. Bellinger made the most of the friendly confines of Yankee Stadium, hitting .302 with 18 home runs at home. His OPS slipped by nearly 200 points on the road.

The Cubs were the most recent team to join the lengthy list of Bellinger suitors. The Dodgers, Giants, Mets, Angels, Blue Jays, and Phillies have all been connected to the free agent outfielder at various points this offseason. A return to Chicago would be fitting after the club twice gave Bellinger a home when the market went cold on him.

After the Dodgers cut ties with the 2019 NL MVP, the Cubs added him on a one-year, $17.5MM pact for 2023. Bellinger hit a career-high .307 and posted a 135 wRC+ in his first year in Chicago, but it wasn’t enough to garner a long-term deal from other teams the following offseason. The Cubs brought him back late in the winter on an opt-out-laden three-year deal. The club would ship him to the Yankees after just a season in what amounted to a salary dump, so maybe it isn’t a perfect homecoming.

Photo courtesy of Brad Penner, Imagn Images

Braves Re-Sign Tyler Kinley

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The Braves announced they are bringing back right-hander Tyler Kinley on a one-year contract worth $4.25MM in guaranteed money. Will Sammon and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported on the deal prior to the official announcement. The deal breaks down as a $3MM salary for the 2026 season, and there is a $1.25MM buyout on a $5.5MM club option for the 2027 season. Kinley is represented by Paragon Sports International. Left-hander Ken Waldichuk has been designated for assignment as the corresponding move.

Atlanta declined its $5.5MM option on Kinley shortly after the season ended, opting to hand him a $750K buyout. The move was a bit of an eyebrow raiser at the time, considering the righty’s strong work once he joined the team, but it makes more sense now. The Braves get Kinley at a cheaper number while adding the ability to retain him in 2027.

The deal is indicative of Kinley’s impressive turnaround last season. The 34-year-old had an ugly 5.66 ERA in the first half with Colorado. It continued a troubling trend, as Kinley was coming off back-to-back seasons with an ERA over 6.00. Atlanta scooped him up at the trade deadline for a Double-A reliever. The Braves weren’t in contention, so acquiring Kinley was more about giving him an audition for 2026. The gambit paid off, as the veteran allowed just two earned runs in 24 appearances with the team.

Kinley often worked in high-leverage spots during his Rockies tenure. The role was given to him more out of necessity, not performance. Despite a 6.19 ERA in 2024, Kinley led the team with a dozen saves. He wrapped up his five-plus seasons in Colorado with a 5.05 ERA. Pitching half your games at Coors Field is no easy task, and Kinley’s underlying metrics were routinely better than his standard run prevention numbers. He had a SIERA close to or below 4.00 in each of his five full campaigns with the team. Kinley’s xERA was more than a run lower than his actual ERA on three occasions.

The Braves have already made several additions in the bullpen this offseason. The club re-signed Raisel Iglesias in mid-November, then doubled down by grabbing Robert Suarez in early December. Atlanta also brought back Joel Payamps and picked up veterans Ian Hamilton and Danny Young. Iglesias and Suarez are the clear 1-2 punch in the late innings, which likely leaves Kinley to pick up opportunities in the middle frames.

Rockies Acquire Jake McCarthy From Diamondbacks

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The Rockies have acquired outfielder Jake McCarthy from the Diamondbacks in exchange for right-handed pitching prospect Josh Grosz.  Both teams have officially announced the trade.

Selected 39th overall by the D’Backs in the 2018 draft, McCarthy’s tenure in Arizona has been marked by trade rumors and flashes of potential.  McCarthy’s first full MLB season in 2022 saw him finish fourth in NL Rookie of the Year voting, off a .283/.342/.427 slash line, eight homers, and 23 steals in 26 attempts over 354 trips to the plate.  This translated to a 116 wRC+, but McCarthy’s production then drastically tailed off to a 78 wRC+ during the 2023 season, and he wasn’t involved in any of Arizona’s playoff rosters during the team’s run to the NL pennant.

The pendulum swung again in 2024 when McCarthy played in a career-high 142 games, and hit .285/.349/.400 with eight homers and 25 stolen bases over 495 PA.  This past season, McCarthy had only a 60 wRC+ from a slash line of .204/.247/.345 over 222 PA, and he spent two months in Triple-A in a fruitless attempt to get his bat on track.

With a 431-game sample size to work with, McCarthy’s strengths and weaknesses are clear.  He can play all three outfield positions at least passably well, and he is one of the very fastest players in baseball, ranking in no lower than the 98th percentile of speed since his debut in the Show.  McCarthy makes a lot of contact, yet with very little hard contact or power, leaving him somewhat at the mercy of batted-ball luck.

Coming up as one of several left-handed hitting outfielders in the Diamondbacks farm system, McCarthy has been a trade candidate for years.  During the 2023-24 offseason, the White Sox were reportedly given the option of acquiring either McCarthy or Dominic Fletcher in exchange for Cristian Mena, and Chicago opted to go with Fletcher.  It is easy to second-guess the D’Backs by arguing that McCarthy could’ve garnered more of a return if they’d moved him much earlier than January 2026, though McCarthy’s up-and-down performance made him something of a difficult player for the Diamondbacks to gauge, let alone shop to trade suitors.

Even with Lourdes Gurriel Jr. set to miss most or all of the 2026 season recovering from a torn ACL, the Diamondbacks still felt comfortable moving McCarthy out of their outfield mix.  McCarthy is out of minor league options, so sending him back to Triple-A again would’ve first required a trip through the waiver wire.  Today’s trade allows the D’Backs to get something back in return for a player who simply no longer seemed to be in their plans.

Corbin Carroll is locked into right field and Alek Thomas will probably get the bulk of center field work.  Any of Blaze Alexander, Jorge Barrosa, or utilityman Tim Tawa could be utilized in left field, plus former top prospect Jordan Lawlar played some center field in winter ball action and might also eventually get some looks in left field.  The Diamondbacks could also explore adding another outfielder over the course of the offseason.

The 28-year-old McCarthy now heads to the Mile High City for a fresh start, though he’ll be joining another somewhat crowded outfield picture.  If anything, there had been an expectation that the Rockies might deal from their outfield rather than add, given that it is perhaps the only real position of depth within the organization.  That said, acquiring McCarthy could be the Rockies’ way of retaining their outfield depth in advance of another trade later this winter.  For now, McCarthy joins Mickey Moniak, Brenton Doyle, Zac Veen, and Jordan Beck in Colorado’s outfield mix, with McCarthy probably lined up as the fifth outfielder.

Since being hired as the Rockies’ president of baseball operations in November, Paul DePodesta has swung two other trades, but this is the first that brought a brought a big league player back to Colorado in return.  DePodesta has a long road ahead of him in trying to bring the Rox back to respectability, but adding a former well-regarded prospect like McCarthy is a way of both raising the talent floor, and seeing what McCarthy can perhaps do with a change of scenery.  McCarthy is arbitration-controlled through the 2028 season, and is earning $1.525MM in 2026.

Grosz is on the move for the second time in less than six months, as the righty was one of the two pitching prospects the Yankees sent to the Rockies for Ryan McMahon at the last trade deadline.  Grosz was an 11th-round pick for the Yankees in the 2023 draft, and he posted a 4.67 ERA, 25.2% strikeout rate, and 10.3% walk rate over 125 1/3 innings at the high-A level in 2025 (87 IP with the Yankees’ high-A affiliate, and the rest with the Rockies’ affiliate).

MLB Pipeline ranked Grosz as the 20th-best prospect in Colorado’s farm system, projecting him as a multi-inning reliever or perhaps a back-end starter.  Grosz’s fastball (which sits 93-95mph with a good spin rate) is his best pitch but also “his lone better-than-average offering,” as per Pipeline’s scouting report.  The 23-year-old is something of lottery ticket that the Diamondbacks can continue developing as a possible rotation piece.

Max Kepler Receives 80-Game PED Suspension

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Major League Baseball announced today that free agent outfielder Max Kepler has received an 80-game suspension after testing positive for Epitrenbolone, a performance-enhancing substance, in violation of Major League Baseball’s Joint Drug Prevention and Treatment Program.

Kepler and MLB negotiated a settlement that allows him to serve the suspension even if he’s not on an MLB roster to begin the season, reports Alden González of ESPN. If he remains a free agent, last year’s playing time with Philadelphia would count as a credit towards the suspension. He remains ineligible for the 2026 playoffs.

Kepler, 33 in February, just wrapped up his first season away from the Twins. After years in Minnesota, Kepler became a free agent after the 2024 campaign and signed a one-year, $10MM deal with the Phillies.

His year in Philadelphia wasn’t especially pleasant. He hit 18 home runs but slashed .216/.300/.391 for a wRC+ of 90. Along the way, he expressed some frustration at being shielded from lefties, saying that he thought he had been signed to be an everyday player.

Returning to free agency this winter, he wasn’t going to have a huge amount of earning potential after that down year. On the other hand, the outfield market is fairly weak, apart from Kyle Tucker and Cody Bellinger being the top guys. Beyond those two, Kepler was one of the better options alongside Harrison Bader and Mike Yastrzemski, the latter of whom signed with Atlanta.

This development obviously changes that. Kepler is now not only a 33-year-old coming off a down year, but also one who won’t even be available for the first half of the season. Even if he latches on somewhere, serves his suspension and plays well in the second half, he wouldn’t be eligible for the 2026 postseason.

That’s obviously going to cut into Kepler’s earning power. For clubs looking for outfield help, especially those who won’t pay for guys like Tucker or Bellinger, it could perhaps increase their desire to push for someone like Bader, Miguel Andujar, Austin Hays, Mike Tauchman or other available outfielders.

Photos courtesy of Kyle Ross, Brad Rempel, Imagn Images

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