Robert Stephenson Undergoes Season-Ending Elbow Surgery
Angels right-hander Robert Stephenson has undergone elbow surgery and is expected to miss the remainder of the season. Manager Kurt Suzuki gave the bad news to Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com. It was a ligament and flexor repair surgery, per Bollinger.
The Halos took a gamble on Stephenson by signing him to a three-year, $33MM deal ahead of the 2024 season. Unfortunately, that bet has not paid off at all due to Stephenson’s injury woes. Tommy John surgery wiped out his 2024 campaign. He returned to the mound by the end of May 2025 but some biceps inflammation put him back on the shelf after just two appearances. He came off the injured list in August and made eight more appearances but finished the season back on the IL due to elbow inflammation.
As of about a month ago, he was throwing and seemed on a path to being healthy in 2026. But about three weeks ago, he suffered a setback and relayed that he had apparently suffered damage to his ulnar collateral ligament and flexor muscle. Yet another surgery means that he’s going to miss a full season for the second time in three years. He’ll have given the Angels just ten innings for their $33MM investment.
The contract does contain a conditional option for 2027. It’s valued at $2.5MM and was to be unlocked if Stephenson spent 130 consecutive days on the IL at any point due to an elbow ligament injury. That option was therefore already triggered when Stephenson missed the 2024 campaign. That means there is technically still a chance for the Halos to get some value out of Stephenson but they would have to cough up a bit more money. Given how the past three years have gone, that’s hard to see right now.
At the time of the signing, Stephenson wasn’t really proven but it felt like perhaps he was about to break out. He was once a first-round pick and a top prospect. His major league track record was mixed but it seemed as though the Rays may have unlocked something. He finished 2023 with Tampa and posted a 2.35 earned run average in 38 1/3 innings. He paired a massive 42.9% strikeout rate with a tiny 5.7% walk rate.
The Angels thought there was a potential lights-out closer in there but that didn’t come to fruition as he has been bit hard by the injury bug. He just turned 33 years old and will turn 34 in February of next year. It’s not exactly clear if he underwent full Tommy John surgery or some kind of internal brace alternative. In either case, it seems likely he’ll still be recovering by the time the 2027 season gets underway.
Photo courtesy of Isaiah J. Downing, Imagn Images
Pirates Sign Konnor Griffin To Nine-Year Extension
The Pirates have announced that they’ve signed Konnor Griffin to a nine-year extension. The news was first reported by Jon Heyman of The New York Post this morning. The deal runs through the 2034 season, and MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports that the deal is worth $140MM. Heyman adds that the deal includes incentives that could take the deal up to $150MM for the Excel client, while Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that there are no options or deferred money in the deal. Sherman adds that the deal’s incentives are based on MVP voting for the 2026-31 seasons. According to Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, the deal includes a $12MM signing bonus. $5MM of that bonus will be paid out this year, followed by $3.5MM in 2027 and $3.5MM in 2028.
ESPN’s Buster Olney first reported that the sides were working on a deal in the range of nine years and $140MM last week, and now the deal is done. Even as the sides working on an extension has been common knowledge for a while now, it’s still surely a huge relief to Pirates fans that the deal is officially done. The consensus top prospect in the sport is now locked up through the end of the 2034 season, giving Pittsburgh three additional years of team control over their up-and-coming star. The term is convenient for Griffin as well. The youngster is still a few weeks shy of his 20th birthday, meaning that he’ll hit free agency ahead of his age-29 season when the deal wraps up in 2034. That should leave Griffin in line for a massive payday down the line, assuming he plays up to expectations.
Those expectations are certainly lofty. The youngster has gotten rave reviews from prospecting outlets across the board, and he’s viewed as a legitimate five-tool player with MVP-level upside. He’s certainly done everything he can to support those fawning evaluations so far. In his first professional season last year, he slashed .333/.415/.527 across three levels of the minors with 21 homers, 23 doubles, four triples, and a whopping 65 steals in just 122 games. He did all that while playing impressive defense at shortstop, and picked right back up where he left off upon starting the season at Triple-A. He went 7-for-16 (.438 average) with three steals, three doubles, and more walks than strikeouts in five games with the Pirates’ Indianapolis affiliate before they pulled the trigger and called him up to the majors.
Since being promoted to the majors, Griffin has struggled somewhat, with a .176/.300/.235 slash line in his first five games. There’s not much reason to put significant stock into a sample size that small, but it is worth noting that Griffin isn’t exactly guaranteed to hit the ground running in the majors. There’s a reason Juan Soto was the last hitter to reach the majors as a teenager before Griffin, and even Mike Trout was a below-average hitter in the majors at Griffin’s age. For the time being, Griffin’s exceptional speed on the base paths and strong defense at shortstop are already a big asset for the Pirates even if the star-level hitting contributions come later.
The extension makes Griffin the highest-paid Pirates player in franchise history, and puts a bow on a busy offseason where the club got aggressive in its efforts to contend. Brandon Lowe, Ryan O’Hearn, and Marcell Ozuna were all brought in this winter by the Pirates after the club missed on some much bigger fish like Kyle Schwarber, Kazuma Okamoto, and Eugenio Suarez to whom they were linked. Even with those top-tier pieces signing elsewhere, Pittsburgh has undeniably upgraded their offense in a big way as they try to make the most of the time during which they’ll have both Griffin and reigning NL Cy Young award winner Paul Skenes in the same uniform. All that spending has raised the luxury tax payroll considerably, and RosterResource indicates that their figure sits just under $127MM for luxury tax purposes at the moment. That should rise to the $142MM range once Griffin’s extension is accounted for.
Brewers Sign Top Prospect Cooper Pratt To Eight-Year Extension
April 6: The Associated Press reports the full breakdown of the Pratt deal. He receives a $3MM signing bonus and $2.5MM salary this season. He’ll make $3.5MM next year, $4MM annually from 2028-29, $5MM each in 2030-31, $10.75MM in 2032, and $13MM in 2033. The options are each valued at $15MM and don’t come with a buyout. Pratt can escalate the option values with top 10 finishes in MVP voting and earns $200K bonus for every Gold Glove win and All-Star selection.
April 3: The Brewers announced Friday that Pratt has signed his eight-year extension. He’s been selected to the 40-man roster and optioned to Triple-A Nashville. Outfielder Steward Berroa was designated for assignment in a corresponding move.
March 30: The Brewers and prospect Cooper Pratt are reportedly on the verge of finalizing an eight-year contract worth $50.75MM. There will also be two club options worth about $15MM per year, though the value of those options can increase via escalators. The Brewers will need to make a corresponding move to add the Boras Corporation client to their 40-man roster.
It’s a surprising, out-of-nowhere extension. Pratt is 21 years old and hasn’t made it to the majors yet. He only just made his Triple-A debut a few days ago. He wasn’t even going to be eligible for the Rule 5 draft until December of 2027.
Extensions for players with no major league experience are becoming more common but this one feels even a bit more extreme than some of the others. Most pre-debut extensions have been for guys very close to cracking the big leagues. The Brewers themselves did one with Jackson Chourio just over two years ago, an $82MM guarantee, though that one was a bit less surprising. Chourio had finished the prior season at the Triple-A level and seemed highly likely to break camp with Milwaukee in 2024 as he was one of the top three prospects in the sport.
Pratt, on the other hand, mostly features on the back of top 100 prospect lists. Baseball America is the high outlet, putting him at #50. MLB Pipeline has him at #62, ESPN at #70, The Athletic at #99 and he’s not even on the FanGraphs list. He had an okay season at Double-A last year, with a .238/.343/.348 line and 107 wRC+, and only just cracked the Triple-A level to start this season.
Perhaps it speaks to the Brewers being quite high on Pratt’s future. Though his offense was middling last year, the plate discipline was clearly good. His 12.7% walk rate and 15.2% strikeout rate were both strong figures. He only hit eight home runs but could perhaps add more power in time. He stole 31 bags last year and is considered a solid defender at shortstop.
If the Brewers have faith in Pratt’s long-term future, there’s sense in locking him up now. That’s especially true with him being a Boras client. That agency isn’t quite as extension-averse as its reputation but the extensions they have done have almost always been for guys who have reached their arbitration years. According to MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, which has data going back to 2006, the Carlos González deal from back in 2011 is the only pre-arbitration extension for a Boras client.
In that context, perhaps the Brewers felt it was worth it to take a gamble on Pratt, even though he is still so early in his career. If they waited until he had been in the big leagues for a few years, the price would go up if he had any kind of success. From the perspective of Pratt, this is a chance for him to lock up some notable earnings and stave off any chance of a bust. Perhaps he will find himself underpaid if he becomes a star, but he’s not the level of surefire, can’t-miss prospect that Chourio was. He could play out this contract, including the options, and still reach free agency after his age-30 season.
What remains to be seen is how this impacts Milwaukee’s short-term plans. Even if Pratt is signed to a big league deal, he doesn’t need to be on the active roster, as he could still be kept in the minors on optional assignment. Joey Ortiz was their everyday shortstop last year. He put up a rough .230/.276/.317 line at the plate but stole 14 bases and was credited with 12 Outs Above Average. He is still in that job and has a massive .455/.500/.455 line so far this year but in a tiny sample of 12 plate appearances.
Ortiz is still under club control for many years but the club may pivot away from him at some point if he can’t post better offense over a sustained stretch of time. He does have options and could be sent to the minors, or perhaps be moved into a utility role since he has experience at second and third base. Pratt has fairly limited experience off the shortstop position but could presumably handle second or third if the Brewers asked him to. For now, Brice Turang is a strong option at the keystone. Third base is a bit more open, with David Hamilton and Luis Rengifo in the mix at the moment.
Looking further down the road, most of those guys still have lots of club control. Rengifo is on a one-year deal but Ortiz, Turang and Hamilton aren’t slated for free agency until after 2029. Prospects Jett Williams, Jesús Made and Luis Peña are generally considered top 100 guys who will be in the mix at some point. Williams has already played at the Triple-A level, Made at Double-A and Pena at High-A. At some point over the horizon, the infield could feel quite crowded, which could perhaps lead to a trade.
In the near term, the deal could have other notable impacts. With the deal in place, the Brewers may not worry about Pratt’s service time, since he would be under club control for the ten years regardless. The Prospect Promotion Incentive could also be interesting here. Pratt would be PPI eligible since he is on the aforementioned prospect lists. Even though he missed the first few games of the season, it’s still early enough for the Brewers to call him up for a full year of service time.
However, a player who signs an extension prior to his major league debut is not eligible to earn PPI picks for his team. Unless the two sides agree to the deal in principle and then don’t officially sign it until after Pratt’s debut, then PPI is off the table.
Altogether, it’s a surprising and curious extension, one that seemingly leads to more questions than it answers. Perhaps the coming days will provide some more clarity on the deal and what it means for all the other moving pieces in Milwaukee.
Bob Nightengale of USA Today first reported that the two sides were working on an eight-year deal worth more than $50MM, including those club options. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reported the specific guarantee. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported that there are escalators on the options. Photos courtesy of Dave Kallmann, Imagn Images.
Astros Place Hunter Brown On Injured List With Shoulder Strain
1:40pm: Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle relays that, according to manager Joe Espada, Brown felt off during his throwing program on Friday and underwent imaging before returning to Houston to be evaluated by team doctors. It’s possible the Astros will have a clearer picture of Brown’s timeline for return once he’s been more thoroughly examined by the team’s medical staff.
12:44pm: The Astros are placing right-hander Hunter Brown on the injured list due to a right shoulder strain. Right-hander Christian Roa was recalled to the majors to replace Brown on the roster.
Brown, 27, broke out last year to become one of the top pitchers in the entire sport. In 31 starts last year, Brown pitched to a 2.43 ERA and struck out opponents at a 28.3% clip. He earned his first career All-Star nod and finished third behind Tarik Skubal and Garrett Crochet in the AL Cy Young award race. Through two starts this year, he was arguably even better with a 0.84 ERA in 10 2/3 innings with a 39.5% strikeout rate. After losing Framber Valdez to free agency over the offseason, the Astros entered the year counting on Brown to lead their rotation as they look to make their way back into the postseason picture.
All of that is now on hold for the time being. While it’s unclear just how much time Brown should be expected to miss, even a minimum stint on the shelf constitutes a big blow to the Astros. A longer one could be devastating. Mike Burrows, Tatsuya Imai, Cristian Javier, and Lance McCullers Jr. make up the rest of Houston’s Opening Day rotation. Burrows has significant upside but has struggled so far this year. McCullers looked quite good in his first start of the year last week but pitched to a 6.15 ERA last season and last threw even 60 innings at the big league level back in 2021. Javier offered reasons for optimism after returning from Tommy John surgery last year but has been shelled for six earned runs in each of his first two starts this season. Losing Brown from the top of a rotation that already has so many question marks is going to be hard to stomach.
In the long-term, the Astros figure to turn to a depth option like Spencer Arrighetti, Colton Gordon, or perhaps even prospect Miguel Ullola to fill the void. The good news for Houston is that they’ve shown a remarkable ability to weather the storm of rotation injuries in recent years, getting passable or better production from little-known youngsters and depth pieces. Arrighetti has a bit more name recognition than that after a solid start to his career, and after two scoreless starts at Triple-A to open the season he seems likely to be the Astros’ first choice to replace Brown. MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart writes that the Astros were expected to a move to a six-man rotation this week prior to the news regarding Brown thanks to an upcoming stretch in the schedule where they play 13 consecutive games without a day off. If that’s still the plan, the Astros will need to turn to multiple Triple-A arms to fill out a rotation that now has just four active members.
For now, however, the team is turning to Roa to fill Brown’s roster spot. Brown’s spot in the rotation won’t come up until tomorrow, and so the Astros can afford to give their bullpen some extra depth for the time being as they figure out what direction they want to go in with Brown sidelined. Roa surrendered a run in 1 1/3 innings of work during his first stint with the club earlier this year and has a career 2.08 ERA in four appearances after briefly making his big league debut as a member of the Marlins last year. The righty sports a career 4.52 ERA in 171 2/3 innings of work as a swing man at the Triple-A level, and while he won’t be an impact arm for the Astros he should be capable of eating innings in long or middle relief for the club over the next few days as they figure out their longer-term pitching plan.
Dodgers Place Mookie Betts On Injured List With Oblique Strain
The Dodgers announced this morning that they’ve placed veteran star Mookie Betts on the 10-day injured list. Jack Harris of the California Post relays that, according to manager Dave Roberts, Betts has suffered an oblique strain. Utility man Hyeseong Kim was recalled from the minors in a corresponding move. Maddie Lee of the LA Times first reported that the club was likely to recall Kim earlier this morning, though she noted that they intended to check in with Betts about the status of his back before doing so.
It’s hard to know how long Betts will be sidelined until the Dodgers give a more firm timeline, but oblique strains are notoriously finicky for position players due to the rotational nature of hitting. Even the most minor of oblique strains can require weeks on the shelf thanks to the risk of re-injury, so it’s entirely possible that the Dodgers will be without their star shortstop until sometime in May. A more significant oblique strain could take significantly longer, and a rehab assignment would further push Betts’s timeline back. The good news, however, is that The Athletic’s Katie Woo writes that Roberts didn’t put an immediate timeline on the veteran’s recovery window but that the team is hopeful he could be back before the standard 4-6 week recovery timeline.
Regardless of how long it takes for Betts to return, it goes without saying that losing him is a real blow. The 33-year-old is coming off a down 2025 season where he posted a wRC+ of just 104, but he’s managed to make himself into a solid defensive shortstop and certainly has the ability needed to return to form offensively this year if his health permits it. The loss of Betts’s bat is something the club can paper over in the short-term thanks to the other stars in the lineup and a strong early-season performance from Andy Pages, but it’s going to be harder to stomach his absence from a defensive perspective.
In the past, Miguel Rojas has been tapped to handle shortstop for the Dodgers when Betts has been injured. That still appears to be the case for now, as Rojas is slated to fill in at shortstop during today’s game against lefty Foster Griffin. With that said, Rojas has played the position with less and less frequency over the past few years and is now 37 years old. If the Dodgers find that he’s lost a step defensively at the position, perhaps Kim could be another option given his experience at shortstop for the club last year. MLB.com’s Sonja Chen reports that Kim and Rojas are expected to share shortstop, with prospect Alex Freeland continuing to mostly handle second base. Freeland has more than 3000 innings of experience at the position in the minors but has yet to play the position in the majors.
As for Kim, the 27-year-old has hit a robust .346/.438/.385 in six games at Triple-A since the Dodgers’ surprising decision to option him to the minors for the start of the season, and his 95 wRC+ in 71 games for L.A. last year was more than acceptable for a utility player. Given that the Dodgers have shown a preference for playing both Rojas and Santiago Espinal against primarily left-handed pitching, that paves the way for Kim to get frequent reps against right-handed pitching while Betts is on the shelf as the team’s shortstop next to Freeland at second base. Against lefties, Rojas at shortstop and Espinal at second base seems to be the likely lineup of choice, though the Dodgers could also consider giving Max Muncy a breather to get Freeland (or Kim) in the lineup against a southpaw or two. While Freeland has been protected from lefties to this point in his young MLB career, he is a switch-hitter whose development could benefit from taking extra reps on his weaker side at the big league level.
Blue Jays Place Alejandro Kirk On 10-Day Injured List, Recall Brandon Valenzuela
The Blue Jays are placing catcher Alejandro Kirk on the 10-day injured list with a left thumb fracture, according to Mitch Bannon of The Athletic. Catching prospect Brandon Valenzuela is being recalled from Triple-A in a corresponding move, per Hazel Mae of MLB International. Keegan Matheson of MLB.com was first to report that Valenzuela is in the Blue Jays’ clubhouse this morning.
Kirk exited last night’s game against the White Sox in the tenth inning after taking an Austin Hays foul tip off his thumb. Tyler Heineman took over behind the plate, and Kirk was promptly sent for X-rays. Although the results weren’t known until this morning, some kind of IL placement was expected for Kirk. In the end, the X-rays revealed the fracture as well as a dislocation, according to Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet. Kirk will meet with a specialist on Monday to determine whether surgery is necessary. Based on similar injuries, the Jays can expect to lose Kirk for at least six to eight weeks if he undergoes surgery.
Any extended absence would be a blow to the Jays as they look to make another deep postseason run. The team is currently 4-3 and in second place in the AL East, although they’ve been outscored by their opponents 33-31. In addition, Kirk is arguably the team’s second-most valuable player behind Vladimir Guerrero Jr. After below-average offensive seasons in 2023-24, he rebounded last year to post a 116 wRC+ along with career highs in home runs (15) and runs batted in (76). The 116 wRC+ was more in line with his 110 career wRC+ and makes him well above average for a catcher. Indeed, Kirk’s 4.7 fWAR was second only to AL MVP runner-up Cal Raleigh at that position.
As good as his offense is, Kirk is also an otherworldly defender. He was worth 9 Defensive Runs Saved in 2025, which tied for third among qualified catchers behind the Giants’ Patrick Bailey and the Red Sox’ Carlos Narváez. According to Statcast, he graded out in the 100th percentile in blocks above average (21) and in the 98th percentile for framing. While his caught stealing and pop time are closer to average, those are very minor points in what is otherwise an outstanding defensive profile. Altogether, Kirk was the second most-valuable defensive catcher in the majors last year, based on Statcast’s Fielding Run Value metric.
Further updates will come after Monday’s visit with the specialist. Obviously, the club will hope that surgery is not needed and that Kirk’s absence will be kept to a minimum. In the meantime, Toronto will rely on Heineman and Valenzuela behind the plate.
Heineman is purely a backup at this stage of his career, but the club may give him the lion’s share of starts in the short term. His offense last year was surprisingly strong, with Heineman posting a 120 wRC+ in 174 plate appearances. That was far off from his career norms and partly the product of good luck, as evidenced by his .342 batting average on balls in play. On the other hand, Heineman accrued 10 DRS behind the plate, and he ranked in the 80th percentile or better for blocks, caught stealing, and framing. Thus, even if his offense regresses, his defense should help him out as a temporary starting catcher.
As for Valenzuela, the 25-year-old was acquired in a trade with the Padres last July and is one of Toronto’s top 30 prospects according to MLB.com. The team added him to the 40-man roster in November. Manager John Schneider said yesterday that Valenzuela would be called up if Kirk needed to miss time. That has now come to pass, and Valenzuela will get his first taste of the big leagues.
Valenzuela participated in major-league Spring Training this year and performed admirably, batting .304/.370/.478 with a home run and three runs scored in 27 plate appearances. He first reached Triple-A in 2024 with the Padres and returned to that level following his trade to the Blue Jays. Valenzuela was slightly above average at Double-A, though his performance at Triple-A has not been quite as strong. That’s largely due to contact issues. In 105 PA with Toronto’s top affiliate last year, he struck out at a 30.5% clip and graded out 23% worse than average by wRC+. He has shown some improvement early in 2026, cutting his strikeout rate to 17.6%. Still, his offense hasn’t been his strong suit at the top level of the minors.
Rather, Valenzuela’s value comes from his work behind the plate. His MLB.com scouting report gives him well-above-average arm strength and control of the running game. He has a 33.8% caught-stealing rate since the start of 2024, including a 35.7% rate at Triple-A, and he is also noted for his ability to work with a pitching staff. His offense may keep him from being a big-league starting catcher, but his glovework gives him a decent ceiling as a backup. For now, Heineman’s stronger recent offense probably gives him the starting job. Valenzuela has three option years remaining and could easily return to Triple-A when Kirk eventually returns.
Photo courtesy of Kevin Sousa, Imagn Images
2026-27 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings: April Edition
The 2026 season is underway and last offseason is officially in the books. While free agency hasn’t completely closed — Lucas Giolito continues to wait for an offer he and his camp find acceptable — we’ll take our first look at next winter’s class.
As a reminder, these lists are based on our predictions of a player’s market value. This isn’t strictly looking at the most valuable free agents. Players in their mid-to-late 30s are going to have a difficult time cracking the top 10 because they’re naturally limited to shorter-term deals. Even in what is shaping up as a weak class, everyone in the top five and arguably the top eight have a path to a nine-figure contract.
MLBTR publishes our first free agent power ranking each April. A player’s walk year performance is the biggest factor in what they make, but their play over one week of the ’26 season doesn’t have much of an impact on their initial ranking. At this point, we’re going more off age and career track record — particularly the past couple seasons. There’s a lot of volatility this far out.
That’s especially true for the 2026-27 class. In recent offseasons, it has been fairly easy to identify the top free agent hitter at least a year in advance. Over the past five years, the respective top free agents on our first in-season rankings were Kyle Tucker, Juan Soto, Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge, and Corey Seager. Seager signed for $325MM, while the other four all set records for overall guarantee and/or average annual value.
This year also features a clear No. 1 free agent, but it’s a pitcher for the first time in years. Pitchers occupy the top two spots, in fact, and Jesús Luzardo would have made three of the top four if not for his recent extension with Philadelphia. Pitchers are riskier bets than an elite free agent hitter because of the ever-present worry of an injury that could wipe out a season or more.
There simply isn’t an impending free agent position player of Tucker’s or Seager’s caliber, much less an Ohtani or Judge. Nico Hoerner had an argument as the best or second-best free agent position player before signing a six-year extension with the Cubs last week. It’s the weakest hitting class in recent memory.
[Related: Who Will Be The Top Free Agent Hitter?]
The likelihood of a lockout looms over any projection of the 2026-27 offseason. It seems inevitable that MLB and the Players Association will not reach agreement on a new collective bargaining agreement before the expiration of the current CBA on December 1. MLB would immediately implement a lockout, freezing all roster movement and communication between teams and players until a new agreement is reached. The 2021-22 lockout brought the sport to a halt for 99 days.
The anticipated lockout isn’t a factor for this list. It’s too early in the process to predict specific contracts. It also doesn’t seem that last winter’s group of free agents feared the work stoppage. Four players accepted qualifying offers, setting the stage for a return to the open market during the expected lockout offseason. A handful of others took short-term deals at higher annual values with opt-out opportunities this winter. The CBA will be the defining story of next offseason, but it has no bearing on the first ranking of the class.
We’ll refresh these rankings at least twice more during the season as injuries and players’ performances change their market value. There’s frequent turnover in the back half of these lists throughout the season. A lack of top-end talent means that’ll be particularly true this year.
One final note: players whose contracts contain opt-out clauses or mutual options are considered for these rankings. Those whose deals have club options are not. For instance, there’s no scenario in which Ronald Acuña Jr. signs a massive free agent contract next offseason. The Braves are all but certain to exercise their $17MM option for the 2027 season. It’d take some kind of catastrophic injury for Atlanta to buy him out.
Onto the rankings:
1. Tarik Skubal, LHP, Tigers
Skubal enters his walk year on track for the largest pitching contract of all time. He’s probably the best pitcher in the game right now, no lower than second after Paul Skenes. Skubal is the two-time defending Cy Young winner in the American League.
Going back to the start of the 2024 season, he carries a 2.25 earned run average that ranks second among qualified pitchers behind Skenes. He’s third in strikeout rate after Garrett Crochet and Chris Sale, each of whom has thrown fewer innings. Only Logan Webb has logged a heavier workload. Skubal has been even more dominant in October, turning in a 2.04 ERA while striking out 38% of opponents in six career playoff starts.
Skubal has a prototype workhorse build and sits in the 97-98 mph range on his fastball. He dominates hitters from either side of the plate and has no issue working deep into games. The only potential concern is that Skubal has twice undergone elbow surgeries: a 2017 Tommy John procedure while in college and a ’22 flexor repair that cost him a year. Skubal has not missed a start since returning from the latter surgery.
As long as he stays healthy, he should shatter the record for the largest pitching contract ever. Excluding the Ohtani deal, that’s currently held by Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who got to $325MM over 12 years. Skubal turns 30 in November, so he’s not signing for 12 years, but he could land a nine- or 10-year pact that beats the $43.33MM record average annual value for a pitcher. We’re probably looking at the sport’s first $400MM arm and the clear prize of the winter.
Skubal and agent Scott Boras have already broken new contractual ground. They were rewarded for a bold arbitration filing, resulting in a record salary ($32MM) and the largest single-year jump (nearly $22MM) via that process. He’ll be attached to a qualifying offer unless the Tigers unexpectedly face plant and trade him at the deadline (which makes a player ineligible for the QO). That’s irrelevant for players this good. Teams will happily forfeit a couple draft choices and international bonus pool money to install Skubal atop their rotation for the better part of the next decade.
2. Freddy Peralta, RHP, Mets
Peralta has been one of the best and most consistent starting pitchers in the majors for over five years now. From 2021 to 2025, he has thrown 738 1/3 innings, allowing 3.30 earned runs per nine. His 9% walk rate in that time is around league average while his 29.6% strikeout rate is tied for 16th among 208 qualified pitchers. He has a four-pitch mix consisting of a four-seamer, changeup, slider and curveball, getting good results will all four.
For that span, he has been credited with 14.8 wins above replacement from FanGraphs, making him one of the 20 most valuable pitchers in the league. He hasn’t had a major injury in that time. A lat strain limited him to 18 appearances in 2022, but he has made at least 30 starts in each season since.
After the Mets acquired Peralta from the Brewers this offseason, many expected an extension to keep him in Queens. However, it seems there may be a misalignment of priorities. President of baseball operations David Stearns prefers short-term deals, for all players but especially for pitchers. Including his time with the Brewers as well as with the Mets, he has only twice gone beyond three years for a pitcher. In both cases, they were five-year extensions for pitchers early in their careers. One was for Peralta himself, a $15.5MM deal signed before he was established. The other was a $20.5MM deal for Aaron Ashby.
The Mets would presumably offer Peralta a very high average annual value, but it seems he would prefer a more traditional long-term deal. He has publicly said he is hoping to sign a deal of seven or eight years in length. He would have a case for such a pact. His profile lines up fairly nicely with Dylan Cease, who just got a seven-year deal worth $210MM from the Blue Jays, though deferrals knocked the net present value down to the $180-185MM range. Here are the two pitchers from 2023 to 2025:
Peralta: 95 starts, 516 innings, 28.9% strikeout rate, 8.8% walk rate, 38.5% ground ball rate, .265 BABIP, 79.8% strand rate, 13% HR/FB, 3.40 ERA, 3.88 FIP, 3.63 SIERA
Cease: 98 starts, 534 1/3 innings, 28.8% strikeout rate, 9.5% walk rate, 37.5% ground ball rate, .304 BABIP, 69.3% strand rate, 10.3% HR/FB, 4.18 ERA, 3.45 FIP, 3.72 SIERA
The strikeout, walk and ground-ball profiles are extremely close. Peralta had a bit better luck in terms of batted balls and sequencing, giving him an edge in the ERA department, but advanced metrics put them much closer together. Front offices these days tend to overlook ERA, as Cease’s deal shows.
Peralta will be one year older than Cease, in baseball terms. Cease signed his deal with the Jays going into his age-30 season. Peralta turns 30 this June, so 2026 will technically be his age-30 campaign. However, the difference is actually just six months. Cease turned 30 in late December, about three months before his first start with the Jays. Peralta will turn 30 about nine months before the start of the ’27 season. Like Cease, he’ll be attached to a qualifying offer but shouldn’t be impacted by draft forfeiture.
3. Bo Bichette, 3B, Mets
Bichette was just one of the top free agents of the past offseason but has a chance to be in that position again. Though he did receive at least one long-term offer — the Phillies reportedly bid around $200MM — he opted to go for a short-term deal with an extremely high average annual values and opt-outs.
With a healthy season, Bichette could return to the open market with fewer questions. He finished last season injured and with an uncertain defensive future. He was never considered an excellent shortstop and then suffered a sprained PCL in his left knee late in the 2025 season. He finished the campaign on the injured list and missed the first few rounds of the Blue Jays’ playoff run. He was activated for the World Series but was clearly not 100% and was limited to second base and designated hitter duty.
Despite the question marks, Bichette still had a robust market thanks to his bat. He doesn’t walk much but is also tough to strike out. He generally has 20-plus homer power, giving him an intriguing contact/power combo. He has a .292/.335/.466 batting line in his career, resulting in a 121 wRC+, indicating he’s been 21% better than league average overall. Before the knee injury in 2025, he hit 18 home runs and slashed .311/.357/.483 for a 134 wRC+.
Bichette’s largest total offer this winter came from the Phillies, who put forth a seven-year framework worth around $200MM. Instead, he signed a three-year deal with the Mets. The $126MM guarantee is well shy of the Philly offer but allows Bichette to bank $42MM this year. If he decides to opt-out, he will collect a $5MM buyout on his way out the door. While turning down $200MM isn’t easy, Bichette can return to free agency with about a quarter of that money already under his mattress.
It’s also theoretically possible he could get an even better long-term offer this coming winter. He will be a year older but still relatively young, as he will turn 29 in March of 2027. The Mets are playing him at third base this year. Moving down the defensive spectrum hurts his earning power, but that was already the expectation for him. Having one year of experience should at least give him some proof of concept at a new position. Ideally, he won’t go into the coming offseason with any health issues. He was a $200MM guy a few months ago and should still be that a few months into the future. He’s ineligible for the qualifying offer after receiving one from Toronto last winter.
4. Jazz Chisholm Jr., 2B, Yankees
There’s a clear tier break between the Nos. 3 and 4 players in the class. Chisholm seems to have the highest ceiling of the non-Bichette group of position players. He’s a lefty-hitting middle infielder with plus bat speed and athleticism. Chisholm was one of seven players to go 30-30 last season, setting a career-high with 31 home runs. His matching stolen base total was the second highest of his career.
The hangup is the amount of swing-and-miss in his game. Chisholm has fanned at a higher than average rate in every season of his career. He punched out in 28% of his plate appearances a year ago, batting .242 in the process. A personal-high 10.9% walk rate resulted in a solid .332 on-base percentage, but he has a more pedestrian .315 mark over his career. Chisholm’s career .247/.315/.451 batting line is around eight to nine points better than league average, in the eyes of park-adjusted metrics.
Free agency has generally been unkind to second basemen in recent years. Hoerner’s $141MM extension could be a nice boost for the position, but he may have gotten interest as a shortstop if the Cubs had let him hit free agency. That’s less likely for Chisholm, who is a solid but not elite second baseman and hasn’t played shortstop in five years. He could be an option for teams seeking third base or outfield help, though a downward trend in his sprint speed means he’s probably not returning to the everyday center field work he logged with Miami between 2023-24.
Chisholm will be eligible for qualifying offer. He wouldn’t have much delay in declining it if he repeats last season’s production. He’s one of the younger players in the class, not turning 29 until next February. Matching his 2025 numbers could set him up for a nine-figure contract.
5. Trevor Rogers, LHP, Orioles
The past 12 months have represented a remarkable turnaround for Rogers. Baltimore’s 2024 acquisition of the former All-Star lefty for Kyle Stowers and Connor Norby was heavily scrutinized. He was bombed over his first four starts as an Oriole and optioned to Triple-A to end the ’24 season. He began last season on the injured list and was on optional assignment to Triple-A into the middle of June.
From the time of his final recall through the end of the season, Rogers ripped off 17 starts with a 1.92 ERA. He fanned a slightly above-average 24.4% of opponents against a 7.2% walk rate while holding hitters to a .185/.246/.272 line. Within a half-season, Rogers went from a depth piece to Baltimore’s Opening Day starter. He has opened this season with a pair of quality starts, allowing two runs with an 8-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio over his first 13 innings.
Rogers’ dominant run prevention hasn’t come with a huge amount of swing-and-miss. He has good but not elite strikeout and whiff rates. His 93 mph average fastball isn’t overpowering on the surface. He gets a lot of weak fly-balls on the heater while using his changeup and sinker as ground-ball offerings. Rogers picked up a sweeper last year to build out the arsenal.
There are obvious red flags to which Rogers’ detractors could point. He’s not going to match last season’s .226 average on balls in play, even if it’s reasonable to expect him to sustain a lower-than-average BABIP based on hitters’ struggles squaring him up. Durability is the other big concern. Rogers has yet to reach even 140 innings in a big league season. He missed time early in his career due to back, lat and biceps issues. A right knee subluxation cost him the first six weeks of the ’25 campaign.
Rogers is among the highest variance players in the class. He could hit the market as a 29-year-old coming off a season and a half of ace-caliber production. Another injury or a slight drop in velocity or whiffs could quickly drop him back into prove-it territory.
There’s a lot of projection in slotting him this high, but it’s also a reflection of how few pitchers in this class are hitting the market in their primes. There are a handful of pitchers below Rogers on this list who have much longer track records, but they’re mostly into their early-mid 30s. Rogers has a chance at a five-plus year deal that most of the older, more established arms do not. He’ll be eligible for a qualifying offer.
6. Michael King, RHP, Padres
King can return to the market by opting out of the final two seasons of his three-year, $75MM deal. The right-hander had a fairly robust market last winter despite being limited to 15 starts, largely by a nerve issue in his shoulder. However, King was unlikely to command five or six years coming off that platform, so he opted for three years with opt-outs to return to the Padres.
This is almost entirely dependent on health. King performed at a borderline ace level throughout 2024 and the first two months of the ’25 season. He struggled down the stretch after returning from the nerve injury and an August IL stay due to a minor knee issue. After a shaky spring, he worked around four walks across five scoreless frames versus the Tigers in his season debut. His 94 mph average fastball was at typical levels.
King won’t be eligible for another qualifying offer. He turns 31 in May, so a free agent deal would begin with his age-32 season. Five-year deals for starting pitchers at that age aren’t common. A healthy season could get him to four years at a strong enough annual value to reach nine figures. Injuries could take him off the market entirely by leading him to forego the opt-out.
7. Daulton Varsho, CF, Blue Jays
Varsho missed the final month of the 2024 season due to a shoulder injury that required offseason surgery. The rehab from that operation, coupled with a separate hamstring strain, limited him to only 71 games in 2025. Despite that considerable time off, he still ranks fifth among all major leaguers, at any position, in Defensive Runs Saved over the past three-plus seasons at 44. The four players above him have all played at least 1000 more innings. Varsho’s 22 Outs Above Average tie him for 23rd in baseball in that same span. The Ultimate Zone Rating metric isn’t as commonly used as it was 15 years ago, but no player in MLB (min. 1000 innings) has been a better defender than Varsho since 2023 by measure of UZR/150.
A former catcher, Varsho took shockingly well to center field and now stands as one of baseball’s premier defensive players. He’s far from a one-trick pony, however, even if his glove is his best asset. The second-generation big leaguer has been a perennial threat for 20-plus home runs, but his power output exploded in 2025. Varsho belted 20 round-trippers in only 271 turns at the plate. He chipped in three more homers in 81 postseason plate appearances. If he’d maintained that regular season pace over the same 562 plate appearances he averaged in the three preceding seasons, Varsho would’ve topped 40 home runs.
That type of power output was a new development, and whether he can sustain anything close to it will go a long way toward determining the extent of his earning potential this coming winter. If Varsho can somehow maintain anything close to last year’s breakout .310 ISO (slugging minus batting average), he could be in line for a nine-figure contract. If his power comes back down to Earth, things are less certain. Varsho is a good player, but he’s strikeout prone and typically has only an average walk rate. That’s led to a career .295 on-base percentage, which many teams will see as a glaring red flag.
There’s a wide range of outcomes here, but Varsho is going to reach free agency as a 30-year-old. He’ll turn 31 in July of year one on his new contract. A plus-plus center field defender with 20-homer pop should, at the very least, command three to four years in free agency. If he can sustain last year’s power output, Varsho can more credibly look for a contract of five years, which might be enough to push him into nine-figure territory. It’d be a big bet to place on someone with such paltry OBP skills, but 40-homer pop and a poor OBP netted Anthony Santander a $92.5MM deal (albeit with heavy deferrals). Varsho should be more appealing if he can stay healthy and deliver a career-best performance in the power department. He’ll be attached to a qualifying offer.
8. Tatsuya Imai, RHP, Astros
Imai’s market didn’t materialize the way many expected last offseason. Despite several predictions of a nine-figure contract — MLBTR included — the Japanese righty wound up settling for somewhat of a prove-it deal. He signed a three-year, $54MM guarantee with the Astros which included opt-outs after the first two seasons.
The Astros also paid a $9.975MM posting fee to NPB’s Seibu Lions. In a sense, Houston was willing to spend nearly $28MM for one year of Imai’s services. That’s a decent amount, but scouts had enough trepidations about Imai’s command and the quality of his secondary pitches that teams weren’t willing to make a long-term commitment.
That’d probably change if he pitches at a mid-rotation level as a rookie. Imai is the youngest starter of note in this class, as he won’t turn 28 until May. He has a plus fastball that averaged 95.6 mph in his MLB debut. It was a rocky start overall, as he walked four batters and couldn’t escape the third inning, but one poor outing doesn’t say much about the caliber of pitcher he’ll be moving forward. (Yoshinobu Yamamoto gave up five runs and lasted all of one inning in his own MLB debut.)
Imai probably won’t be in this spot on the next iteration of the free agent rankings. If he’s pitching well, he could jump into the top five based on the youth and velocity. If he struggles, he could drop off the list equally quickly. He would be eligible for a qualifying offer if he opts out of his current contract.
9. Randy Arozarena, LF, Mariners
Arozarena is an above-average everyday left fielder. He has been between 14 and 27 percent better than average at the plate in five straight seasons. He hit a career-high 27 homers while stealing 31 bags last year. Arozarena has gone at least 20-20 in each of the last five years and is a lifetime .250/.344/.433 hitter.
That blend of power and speed comes with some swing and miss. Arozarena has struck out a near-26% clip in his career and punched out in 26.9% of his trips last year. Defensive Runs Saved has graded him as a league average left fielder, while he’s generally a little worse than par by measure of Outs Above Average.
Arozarena will hit the market at age 32, likely with a qualifying offer attached. A high-AAV three-year deal seems likelier than four guaranteed seasons. His camp would probably try to beat the $66MM Teoscar Hernández contract if he has his usual year.
10. Seiya Suzuki, RF/DH, Cubs
Much of the Arozarena writeup also applies to Suzuki. The righty-hitting slugger owns a .269/.346/.472 slash over four big league seasons since signing out of NPB. He popped 32 homers with a .245/.326/.478 mark over 651 plate appearances last season.
Suzuki has plus power and takes a lot of walks. It comes with some strikeouts but not enough to prevent him from slotting into the middle of a lineup. Suzuki is probably a slightly better offensive player than Arozarena, but he faces more questions about his position fit and injury history.
The Cubs have used Suzuki frequently as a designated hitter over the past couple seasons. He has the speed and arm strength to play right field, where the public metrics have graded him as a slightly below-average defender. He missed time in 2023 and ’24 with oblique strains and began this year on the shelf with a minor PCL sprain in his right knee suffered during the World Baseball Classic.
Suzuki will be eligible for a qualifying offer. Like Arozarena and teammate Ian Happ, he’ll hit free agency as a 32-year-old corner outfielder. They’re all consistently good but not top-tier hitters, and clubs could reasonably order them in any way. They each have a shot at three years and more than $20MM per season. A fourth year for any of the three isn’t a complete stretch but also shouldn’t be considered likely. As MLBTR’s Contract Tracker shows, the only free agent deals of four or more years for outfielders 32 or older in the past decade have been for Starling Marte (four years, $78MM) and Lorenzo Cain (five years, $80MM) — both of whom played center field in their platform seasons.
Honorable Mentions (listed alphabetically): Bryan Abreu, David Bednar, Shane Bieber, Kris Bubic, Jack Flaherty, Zac Gallen, Kevin Gausman, Trent Grisham, Ian Happ, Shota Imanaga, Brandon Lowe, Casey Mize, Adrian Morejon, Nick Pivetta, Brady Singer, Gleyber Torres, Taylor Ward, Brandon Woodruff
Respective images courtesy of Imagn Images.
Pirates Promote Konnor Griffin
April 3: Pittsburgh has formally selected Griffin’s contract, per a club announcement. Infielder Enmanuel Valdez was designated for assignment to open a 40-man roster spot.
April 2: The Pirates are calling up shortstop Konnor Griffin, the top prospect in all of baseball, to make his major league debut in tomorrow’s home opener, Pirates insider Jason Mackey reports. The team has confirmed Griffin’s promotion but has not yet formally selected his contract to the 40-man roster. They’ll need to do so and make corresponding 26-man and 40-man transactions prior to first pitch tomorrow.
Griffin was in the mix to break camp on Pittsburgh’s Opening Day roster but was reassigned to minor league camp late in spring training. The two parties have continued talks on what would be a record-setting contract extension — expected to be both the largest ever for a player with little to no major league service time (surpassing Colt Emerson‘s recent eight-year $95MM deal with the Mariners) and the Pirates’ franchise-record contract ($100MM for Bryan Reynolds).
It’s possible the Bucs simply wanted Griffin to make his debut at home, popping ticket sales throughout the weekend and further boosting excitement for fans after an uncharacteristically aggressive offseason. It’s also feasible that the two parties have become close enough on a long-term contract that the Pirates are making the move to promote him now and will announce an extension not long after his debut. The benefits in that scenario are straightforward. Players who sign extensions before making their MLB debut are not eligible to net draft picks for their club under MLB’s prospect promotion incentives; players who sign extensions after debuting remain PPI eligible. So long as any contract is finalized after Griffin has debuted, he’d net the Pirates an extra draft pick either by winning 2026 NL Rookie of the Year honors or with a top-three finish in MVP voting in 2026-28. (A player can only generate one total PPI pick for his team.)
Griffin is still three weeks away from his 20th birthday, but the 19-year-old phenom will get his chance to prove he’s ready for the big time. A physical beast already standing 6’3″ and weighing 225 pounds, Griffin is perhaps the most touted No. 1 overall prospect in recent memory. He draws plus (60) to plus-plus (70) grades on the 20-80 scale for all of his tools across the board. Griffin is an elite runner who scouts believe can stick at shortstop while hitting for both average and power.
Selected with the No. 9 overall pick in 2024, Griffin has played just one full professional season, and the results were borderline comical. He sprinted through the minors last year, climbing from Low-A to Double-A and absolutely raking at each of his three stops. Griffin totaled 563 plate appearances overall and slashed .333/.415/.527 with 21 home runs, 23 doubles, four triples and an eye-popping 65 stolen bases in 78 tries (83.3%). He walked at an 8.9% clip and struck out at a 21.7% rate.
Those numbers are staggering on their own. By measure of wRC+, Griffin was 65% better than an average hitter across those three levels. That ignores the context that the Mississippi native was among the youngest players — if not the youngest player — at all of those stops. Griffin hit just .171 in 46 spring plate appearances with the Pirates but still popped four home runs. He’s taken 21 plate appearances in Triple-A to begin this season and gone 7-for-16 with three doubles, three steals, five walks and only four strikeouts.
With the Pirates, Griffin will immediately step in as the team’s everyday shortstop. That’ll push Jared Triolo to a bench role for which he’s probably better suited. Triolo is an adept defender at multiple infield spots but carries just a .234/.319/.343 slash in 1054 plate appearances at the major league level. He can mix in at any of the four infield spots now, though he’s not going to supplant starters Spencer Horwitz (first base), Brandon Lowe (second base) or Nick Gonzales (third base) unless there’s an injury or a prolonged stretch of poor play from Gonzales as he acclimates to the hot corner.
Griffin steps into a big league lineup that has been substantially revamped since last season. The Pirates didn’t get the biggest fish they pursued this winter (e.g. Kyle Schwarber, Josh Naylor, Kazuma Okamoto), but they still brought in several established veteran bats who’ve unequivocally bolstered the offense. Lowe and outfielder Jake Mangum came over from the Rays alongside lefty reliever Mason Montgomery in a three-team trade sending young righty Mike Burrows to Houston. Ryan O’Hearn signed a two-year, $29MM in free agency. Marcell Ozuna later came aboard for a year and $12MM. Griffin now joins newcomers like Lowe, O’Hearn and Ozuna in the heart of a vastly improved lineup that Pirates hopes will better support the team’s excellent young pitching staff.
Service time considerations seemingly weren’t a factor in Griffin’s promotion. He’s still being called up in time to get a full year of major league service even without a Rookie of the Year win. His timelines for reaching arbitration and free agency would be rendered moot if Griffin eventually signs an extension, as many expect, but as things currently stand he’d be on track for arbitration eligibility following the 2028 season and free agency following the 2031 season, when he’d be just 25 years old (and going into his age-26 season). Griffin is so young that even a record-setting extension could still position him to reach the open market well ahead of his 30th birthday.
Griffin is the first of many young Pirates hitters who could impact the team this season. Pittsburgh also picked up touted outfield prospect Jhostynxon Garcia in a trade with the Red Sox, and he should get a look in the majors before too long. Infielder Termarr Johnson‘s stock has dipped in recent seasons, but he’s still just 21 years old and coming off a nice 2025 showing in Double-A. Catcher/first baseman Rafael Flores Jr., another trade acquisition (from the Yankees in last summer’s David Bednar swap) had a big season between Double-A and Triple-A last year and could hit his way into a bigger audition in 2026 as well.
For now, all eyes are on Griffin — both to witness the debut of one of the best prospects in recent memory and also to see whether he signs a franchise-altering extension that’d lock him in beyond his original six seasons of club control.
Pirates, Konnor Griffin Reportedly Working On Extension
April 2nd: Olney now reports that the sides are working on a nine-year deal worth $140MM, though he cautions that the deal isn’t done as they are still working on some things.
April 1st: The Pirates and prospect Konnor Griffin are reportedly deep into extension negotiations, per Buster Olney of ESPN.
It doesn’t appear that anything is done or agreed to yet but it seems the two sides aren’t too far apart. Olney’s report frames Pittsburgh as hoping to get something done that is comparable to Corbin Carroll‘s $111MM eight-year deal with Arizona while Griffin’s camp is targeting Roman Anthony‘s $130MM eight-year pact with Boston. Given that the gap is less than $20MM, perhaps something can get done. A couple of weeks ago, Jon Heyman of The New York Post suggested the Pirates could be willing to get to the $110MM range. Last week, Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported that the two sides had indeed discussed an eight-year deal worth $110MM.
Griffin is not yet 20 years old and hasn’t played in the majors yet but he is the top prospect in the game right now and many consider him the best prospect seen in years. Last year, he slashed .333/.415/.527 while hitting 21 home runs and stealing 65 bases.
He topped out at Double-A yet seemed to have a chance at breaking camp with the club here in 2026. He hit four home runs in spring training but his other numbers were not great, as he slashed .171/.261/.488. Part of that was a .125 batting average on balls in play but Griffin also struck out at a 28.3% clip and only drew a walk in 4.3% of his plate appearances.
That surely didn’t do anything to dampen the club’s long-term hopes for Griffin but the Pirates decided to start the season with him at the Triple-A level. He has a .462/.588/.692 slash in four games to start the season.
Extensions for players with little or no major league experience have become far more common in recent years. Earlier this week, Colt Emerson and the Mariners set a new benchmark for pre-debut guys, signing an eight-year deal with a $92MM guarantee.
Emerson is one of the 10 to 15 top prospects in the league but, as mentioned, Griffin is the clear #1 and is perhaps the best prospect in quite some time. With that in mind, he should sail past Emerson’s guarantee and it seems like the talks are already past that point.
For extensions signed quite early in a player’s career, Carroll and Anthony are some of the most notable. Carroll and Anthony each signed within two months of their respective debuts. Julio Rodríguez has the record for a deal for a player with less than a year of service time. Towards the end of his rookie season, he and the Mariners signed a convoluted deal with a $210MM guarantee and multiple club/player options.
The largest contract in Pittsburgh’s franchise history is the $100MM deal they signed with Bryan Reynolds a few years back. It seems they are willing and hoping to break that record to lock up Griffin as part of their core. The longer they wait, the harder that will become. Young players generally gain earning power as they push further into their careers and closer to free agency, as the Rodríguez deal shows. For guys with two years of service time, Bobby Witt Jr. got a $288.8MM guarantee while Fernando Tatis Jr. got $340MM. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. got $500MM when he was just a few months from free agency.
It’s been over a decade since the Pirates last made the playoffs but it’s possible better days are ahead. They have already graduated a number of exciting young players onto their major league roster in recent years, headlined by Paul Skenes. Their farm system is currently ranked by many outlets as the best in the majors. That’s in large part due to Griffin but they also have Edward Florentino, Seth Hernandez and other exciting young prospects on the way. They had a busy offseason, adding Brandon Lowe, Ryan O’Hearn, Marcell Ozuna and others as they try to take a step forward.
Griffin will be a key part of the competitive window that appears to be opening but the Bucs would naturally love to extend the relationship if they can. From Griffin’s perspective, he would have to be willing to delay his path to free agency. Going year to year could potentially mean hitting the open market after his age-25 or -26 season. Signing a deal now would lock in an upfront guarantee while perhaps still giving him a chance to become a free agent before his 30th birthday.
Without a deal officially signed, there’s a notable ticking clock with Griffin’s service time. A major league season is 187 days long but a player only needs 172 days in the majors to be credited with a full year of service time. That means Griffin can still hit that one-year mark if called up in the next week. If he does so without an extension in place, he would be eligible to earn the Pirates an extra draft pick via the Prospect Promotion Incentive, though players who sign pre-debut extensions are not PPI eligible. If Griffin is still in the minors by the end of next week, he wouldn’t be able to get a full year of service the old-fashioned way but would be credited with one year retroactively if he is eventually called up and places in the top two in National League Rookie of the Year voting.
Photo courtesy of Sam Navarro, Imagn Images
Mariners Sign Colt Emerson To Eight-Year Extension
The Mariners announced the signing of top shortstop prospect Colt Emerson to an eight-year extension that includes a club option for the 2034 campaign. Emerson, an ACES client, is reportedly guaranteed $95MM — a record for a player who has yet to make his MLB debut.
The signing comes with a full no-trade clause and includes another $35MM+ in escalators. There’s reportedly an $8MM signing bonus. Emerson will make $1MM and $2MM respective salaries over the next two seasons. That’ll climb to $9MM in 2028 and between $12-18MM per season from 2029-32. The club option is valued at $25MM.
Emerson will remain in Triple-A, where he has nine games of experience. Seattle needed to select him onto the 40-man roster to finalize his major league contract but immediately optioned him back to the Triple-A level. The 20-year-old’s deal tops the previous record guarantee for a player without any MLB service time (previously held by Jackson Chourio) by $13MM.
It’s not hard to see why the Mariners are giving him a guarantee that nearly reaches nine-figures before even seeing him take a single MLB at-bat, however. The youngster is a consensus top-15 prospect in the sport and rocketed through the minors last year. After starting 2025 at the High-A level, he walked at an excellent 13.1% clip and swatted 32 extra-base hits in just 90 games. That forced the issue enough to earn him a promotion to the upper minors and, across 40 games between Double-A Arkansas and Triple-A Tacoma, Emerson slashed .293/.383/.470 in 188 plate appearances. That would be an impressive slash line for any player, but even more so for a 19-year-old who plays quality defense all over the infield.
The Mariners made the decision to let Eugenio Suarez and Jorge Polanco depart in free agency over the offseason, and Emerson’s emergence was surely part of that calculus. For now, the club has an infield mix that appears full on paper, with J.P. Crawford at shortstop, Cole Young at second base, and the recently-acquired Brendan Donovan at third base.
Crawford is currently on the injured list with a bout of shoulder inflammation, but he’s expected to return relatively quickly from that injury. The Mariners preferred to use utilityman Leo Rivas as a fill-in rather than call Emerson up for a week or two only to option him back to Tacoma. With Crawford on track to hit free agency after the 2026 season, the position will probably belong to Emerson in the long term.
That’s not to say he’ll need to wait until 2027 to make his MLB debut. Young is a former top prospect himself and is well-regarded by the Mariners, but he’s ultimately unproven at the big league level and could open up playing time at the keystone if he struggles or sits against tough lefties. Donovan was acquired in no small part thanks to his elite versatility. The super-utility man is primarily an infielder but has plenty of experience on the outfield grass as well. Emerson could assume the regular third base job at some point this season. That would bump Donovan to right field, thereby displacing either Dominic Canzone or Luke Raley from the starting lineup.
While a spot could be made for Emerson in the majors, it’s understandable that the club is holding off on promoting him for now. This extension is a big bet on his ability and removes the consideration of service time from the equation, but Emerson’s development must still be considered. While MLB Pipeline notes that his defensive metrics last year suggested he was an above-average defender at short, he has just 111 1/3 innings of work at third base for his career and just 75 at the keystone, so it would be understandable if the team wanted to get him additional looks at those positions before giving him a full-time role in the majors.
As for his offense, Emerson has just 43 total games in the upper minors. That’s not a lot of time afforded for his development, and while some top prospects are able to jump right in at the big league level with minimal minor league experience, the Mariners should remember all too well the struggles that outfielder Jarred Kelenic faced when he was promoted to the majors after just 51 games in the upper minors (including 30 at Triple-A). The front office surely has no interest in risking Emerson’s development on calling him up before he’s ready, particularly given the fact that Emerson is now slated to receive the fourth-largest guarantee on Seattle’s entire roster behind Julio Rodriguez, Luis Castillo, and Cal Raleigh.
Regardless of when Emerson ultimately reaches the majors, this deal locks up a key piece of Seattle’s core for the future. With Emerson now under club control through the end of the 2034 season, he joins Raleigh, Rodriguez, Josh Naylor, and Young as key players under control through at least 2030. That positional core is complemented by impact pieces like Donovan, star closer Andres Munoz, and of course the club’s vaunted starting rotation of Castillo, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryan Woo, and Bryce Miller. All five of those starters are set to hit free agency between the 2027-28 offseason and the 2029-30 offseason, so perhaps the club’s long-term planning can now focus on the future of the rotation now that key positional assets like Raleigh and Emerson are locked up for the long haul.
Robert Murray of FanSided first reported that Emerson and the Mariners had agreed to an eight-year, $95MM contract with a club option, more than $35MM in escalators, and a no-trade clause. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported that Emerson would be optioned back to Triple-A. Adam Jude of The Seattle Times had the signing bonus and salary range. Daniel Kramer of MLB.com reported the $25MM option value and more salary specifics.
Image courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas, Imagn Images.