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Is MLB Parity Possible Without A Salary Cap?

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Kyle Tucker reached an agreement with the Dodgers last Thursday, and thoughts have been swirling around my brain ever since.  Sometimes I have trouble sleeping because I keep writing this post in my head.  I’m fortunate enough to have this website as my outlet, so here goes.

It feels almost quaint that a year ago, the Dodgers signing Tanner Scott seemed to be the straw that broke the camel’s back.  I ran a poll around that time, asking, “Do you want a salary cap in the next MLB CBA?”  36,589 people responded, and two-thirds said yes.  It was later pointed out to me that I should have made clear that a cap comes with a floor.

If I had phrased it as “a salary cap and floor,” the number may have been even higher than 67.2%.  I also think that if I run the poll again in the coming weeks, an even higher percentage will vote for a cap, since the last year has seen the Dodgers win a second consecutive World Series and then add Edwin Diaz and Tucker.

The poll had a second question: “Are you willing to lose the entire 2027 MLB season for a salary cap?”  27,629 people responded to the second question, implying about a quarter of those who answered the first question either didn’t see the second just below it or didn’t care to grapple with the consequences of a salary cap.

For those who did respond, the second question was more evenly split: 50.18% said yes, they would lose the entire 2027 season for a salary cap.  That was stunning to me, because I view a lost season as a disastrous outcome that must be avoided.

Evan Drellich of The Athletic spoke to a source who made it clear ownership will push for a salary cap during upcoming CBA negotiations.  But according to Drellich’s colleague Ken Rosenthal, a salary cap is “considered highly unlikely by many in the sport” and “many player agents and club executives are skeptical games will be lost” in 2027.

Even if this round of negotiations doesn’t result in a cap, I think it’ll happen in my lifetime.  If necessary, MLBTR can adapt to that new world and hopefully become experts in explaining salary cap nuances.

The purported goal of ownership is not to get a salary cap, though.  It’s said to be parity, or competitive balance.  That doesn’t mean every team has an equal chance to win each year or dynasties are impossible.  It does mean that all 30 teams have roughly the same ability to sign top free agents and retain their own stars.  I think fans want a small market team like the Pirates to have about the same chance as the Dodgers to sign Kyle Tucker, or to be able to keep Paul Skenes.  Perhaps they want a world where teams can differentiate from each other based on drafting ability, player development, shrewd trades, and the intelligence of their allotted free agent signings, but not so much on payroll.

At the risk of stating the obvious, I do not think the Pirates can run a $400MM payroll and remain profitable.  The Dodgers reportedly reached a billion dollars in revenue in 2024.  Many teams, the Pirates included, generated roughly one-third of that.  This does not feel fair or good for baseball.

The Dodgers are so profitable that the “dollars per WAR” they’re willing to pay seems to be on another planet.  Tucker projects for 4.5 WAR in 2026, and the Dodgers seem to be valuing that at $120MM including taxes.  Even if they think he’s a 5 WAR player, they’re paying $24MM per WAR on him in 2026.  With the possible exception of the Mets, who are reportedly not profitable, I don’t think any other teams are willing to pay more than $12MM per WAR.

Which brings us to the desire by many for a salary cap.  A cynic might say that while owners and fans are aligned on the need for competitive balance, owners also love the salary cap idea because it will depress player salaries long-term, saving them money and increasing franchise valuations.

I consider a true “salary cap no matter what” stance from ownership to be the nuclear option.  If the true goal here is parity or competitive balance, then a cap is just a means to an end, and not the only option or factor.  That leads me to a series of questions.

Who should bear the financial burden of restoring competitive balance?

There is often an assumption that this whole problem should just be solved by the players making less money.  I certainly understand the logic that Tucker would be just fine making $20-30MM a year instead of $60MM.

But the truth is, the average MLB player does not accumulate the six years required to reach free agency (though he may get there with less service time if he’s released).  This is admittedly 18 years old, but this New York Times article points to a study suggesting the average MLB career length is 5.6 years.

Though I haven’t run my own study on the average length of ownership, I’ll venture to say it easily exceeds 5.6 years.  A case can be made that if one of these parties must be stewards of the game, making financial sacrifices for the greater good of competitive balance, it should be ownership.

I think MLB would argue that they can devise a salary cap/floor system in which players will actually earn more money in total.  Drellich reported last summer that commissioner Rob Manfred has suggested just that to players.  There’s a trust issue here.  Players may not believe Manfred is being forthright on that point or that they have a full picture of team revenue.  Furthermore, they may be wary that if they allow for a cap system that grants them a percentage of revenue that is advantageous for them now, owners will eventually chip away at that percentage.  Once a cap is in place, it will never be removed.

I believe common sense dictates that a model where players compete for a finite and defined pool of money means they will earn less as a group, though it may be distributed more evenly.  If players eventually earn less as a group, then they will be bearing the cost of competitive balance while owners pocket the difference.  I think we should at least entertain the opposite: big market teams redistribute more of their profits to smaller markets in the name of competitive balance.  More on that at the end of this post.

Why is a cap the default solution for so many people?

Having read the autobiography of MLBPA forefather Marvin Miller, I don’t think there was ever a time that MLB players were winning the PR war over teams.  I don’t think Miller cared.  Players’ salaries are well-known and huge compared to normal people, and they’ll probably always have an uphill battle getting widespread fan support to protect that.

These days, I doubt Tony Clark has a narrative he can sell to win over a majority of baseball fans.  He might say MLB actually does have competitive balance, or talk about attendance records, and World Series ratings, or suggest that some teams don’t try hard enough to win.  But Manfred will win the PR battle because he is acknowledging real widespread fan sentiment that the current system is unfair and broken.

I think it’s easiest to default to “baseball needs a salary cap” because the NFL, NBA, and NHL have one.  But why do those sports have a cap?  Is it because they tried many different approaches toward competitive balance and arrived at a cap?  I am admittedly not a labor historian of those sports, but I think it’s mostly that those sports’ players didn’t accidentally fall backwards into a Marvin Miller, and thus their unions caved to ownership demand for a cap.

I won’t speak to the competitive balance of other sports because it’s not my area.  But when people ask me whether I think an MLB salary cap would have the desired effect of competitive balance, my answer is yes.  If MLB could somehow get players to agree to a cap/floor system with a tight salary range (say, $20MM), I do think the financial advantages of certain teams would be snuffed out and the smartest teams would be in the playoffs every year regardless of market size.  I’d be interested to see what the payroll range would be and how small market teams would react to the floor, but the appeal is obvious.

Why does the current system have significant penalties for exceeding various payroll thresholds, but no apparent penalty for running excessively low payrolls?

There are people out there who say the “real problem” is certain MLB owners who won’t spend.  I don’t think forcing the Marlins to spend another $25MM on players this winter would solve the inherent unfairness of a competitor having triple their revenue.

Still, in each CBA, MLB has succeeded in increasing the penalties for going over competitive balance tax thresholds – thresholds that sometimes don’t increase even at the rate of inflation.  The initial highest tax rate was 35% on the overage; now it’s 110%.  I assume that if owners abandon their pursuit of a cap at some point, they’ll at least add a new “Dodgers tier” beyond the current 110% “Cohen tax.”

But in the name of fairness and competitive balance, why is it that no real penalties exist for running extremely low payrolls?

As Rosenthal and Drellich noted in November, “If a team’s final luxury-tax payroll is not one and a half times the amount it receives in a given season from local revenue sharing, it will likely stand a better chance of losing a grievance for not properly using its revenue-sharing money to improve on-field performance, which the CBA requires.”  They go on to add that “the Marlins were expected to be among the highest revenue-sharing recipients at roughly $70 million if not more,” which would necessitate a $105MM CBT payroll.

The CBA specifically says, “each Club shall use its revenue sharing receipts (including any distributions from the Commissioner’s Discretionary Fund) in an effort to improve its performance on the field.”  If a team falls short of the 1.5x threshold and the MLBPA files a grievance, it’s on the team to demonstrate that it did use its revenue sharing funds to improve on-field performance.

The Marlins ran the game’s lowest CBT payroll in 2025 at about $87MM.  Their 2026 CBT payroll is around $80MM right now.  The MLBPA’s grievances on this seem to go nowhere, lingering for years and getting settled in CBA negotiations.  I’ve seen no evidence a team has been penalized in any way for failing to meet the 1.5x floor called for in the CBA.  One can imagine that if low-spender penalties had been added in 1997 when the luxury tax came into being, certain ownership groups would not have purchased teams and other, better ones might have come in.

It’s often said that it’s much easier to tweak something that’s already in the previous CBA than add something entirely new.  Players have been agreeable to ever-increasing tax penalties, rather than a sea change to a cap/floor system.

And the game does already have a soft cap, ineffective as it may be against certain clubs.  But I’d argue that language is also already in place for a soft floor, at least for revenue sharing recipients (the Diamondbacks, Rockies, Reds, Brewers, Pirates, Marlins, Athletics, Mariners, Tigers, Royals, Twins, Guardians, Orioles, and Rays).  The MLBPA should fight for codified penalties for failing to meet the 1.5x floor, such as simply losing a portion of revenue sharing proceeds depending on how far below the team is.

A better-enforced 1.5x floor would not be a panacea.  That floor led to the A’s signing Luis Severino, but certainly didn’t keep Blake Snell away from the Dodgers.  But I do think that if revenue sharing money is spent well, it is a step in the direction of competitive balance.

Why do we know everything about player contracts, but very little about team revenue, team profitability, the distribution of luxury tax proceeds to teams, and especially revenue sharing?

We spend so much time on MLBTR talking about player contracts and the resulting team payrolls.  This information is readily available for just about every signing; some teams put contract terms right into their announcements.

Everyone knows how much players are making, and it often works against them in terms of public perception.  Conversely, we have to rely on an annual report from Forbes (or similar outlets) that provides valuations and estimates of operating income for MLB teams.

Forbes explains that the information used in their valuations “primarily came from team and league executives, sports bankers, media consultants and public documents, such as stadium lease agreements and filings related to public bonds.”  The valuations, and I assume operating income/loss numbers, exclude things such as “equity stakes in other sports-related assets and mixed-use real estate projects.”

For me, it’s pretty hard to know how profitable each team is.  This information is kept under lock and key by MLB.  The Braves are an exception because they’re owned by a publicly traded company, and sometimes their financials are used to form guesses about other teams.  Still, fans and journalists are left with inadequate information to determine what a team’s player payroll could or should be.

We also don’t know how much revenue sharing payors are paying out each year, or how much recipients receive.  Bits and pieces trickle out on rare occasion.  I mentioned the reported $70MM-ish received by the Marlins that Rosenthal uncovered.  And Sportico suggested that in 2024, the Dodgers paid “roughly $150 million into baseball’s revenue-sharing system.”

How much money in total is paid into revenue sharing each year?  We don’t know.  How much of that do recipients spend on player payroll?  We don’t know that either.  How about these huge tax bills teams like the Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, and Phillies have incurred – where does that money go?  The luxury tax brought in a record $402.6MM in 2025.  Drellich reported in 2024, “MLB and the players have always essentially split luxury-tax proceeds, with half of the money going to clubs in some form, the other half to player retirement funds.”  So perhaps $200MM of luxury tax money went to teams – how was that distributed specifically, and are there any rules about how it’s spent?

If you’d like to understand a bit more about how revenue sharing works, start on page 145 of the CBA.  The CBA says, “The intent of the Revenue Sharing Plan is to transfer among the Clubs in each Revenue Sharing Year the amount of revenue that would have been transferred in that Year by a 48% straight pool plan, plus such transfers as may result from distributions of the Commissioner’s Discretionary Fund.”  We get payors (like the Dodgers) and payees (like the Marlins) because “the Blended Net Local Revenue Pool shall be divided equally among the Clubs, with the difference between each Club’s payment into the Blended Net Local Revenue Pool and its receipt therefrom producing the Club’s net payment or net receipt.”

Does the Shohei Ohtani unicorn theory have any validity?

Let’s talk deferrals for a minute.  Many fans think this is a huge part of the problem with the Dodgers.

The Dodgers may be the villains of MLB right now, but agent Scott Boras is right there with them for many fans.  Between the contracts, press conferences, puns, and dad jokes, Boras does occasionally speak truth.  Boras made a statement to Drellich yesterday suggesting Shohei Ohtani is a unicorn in terms of ability and revenue generation:

“The Dodgers are not a system issue. They are the benefactors of acquiring Shohei Ohtani, MLB’s astatine. Short-lived and rare. No other player offers such past or present. Ohtani is the genius of elite performance and additional revenue streams of near $250 million annually for a short window of history. The process of acquiring Ohtani was one of fairness and equal opportunity throughout the league. A rare, short-lived element is not a reason to alter the required anchored chemistry of MLB. The mandate of stability to gain media rights optimums is the true solution to league success.”

Well, yes.  Peak Ohtani is perhaps the best and most unique player the game has ever seen, and he’s from a foreign country.  As such, he generates a huge amount of money for the Dodgers, which we likely won’t see again in our lifetimes.

Boras didn’t directly mention the other extremely rare factor with Ohtani: he wanted to defer 97.1% of his contract.  As I wrote a year ago, “money is worth more now than it is in the future, so players have not exactly been clamoring to wait until retirement age to receive 97.1% of their contract.”

But Ohtani is unique, and it made sense for him partially because of his endorsement money.  His decision did have a negative effect on competitive balance.  If deferred money had been outlawed, the Dodgers would have had to pay Ohtani a straight $46MM or so per year.  That they’re instead paying him $2MM per year right now means they have $44MM extra to spend because of Ohtani’s choice.  That is exactly why Ohtani proposed this structure to multiple teams: he wanted to free up money so his team would use it on other players and have a better chance of winning.

(EDIT: Reading the comments on this post, I realized I didn’t explain this well, because it’s true that the Dodgers have to set Ohtani’s deferred $68MM aside.  But my understanding is that they are able to invest that money, and I think having a much lower cash player payroll grants them a good amount of extra flexibility.)

Using Kyle Tucker’s $57.1MM AAV as an example, you could say Ohtani’s extreme deferral choice bought the Dodgers 77% of Tucker, probably good for 3+ wins by itself this year (unless you count Tucker’s tax penalty, in which case it’s more like 37%).

If I was the MLBPA, I’d probably just cave on this issue for the PR benefit.  Players like the flexibility of deferred money, but limitations could be added that would only affect the next Ohtani-type player who attempts to defer 97.1% of his contract, which is unlikely to ever exist.

In theory, could the competitive balance issue be solved entirely by ownership?

I have plenty of friends who love baseball and feel that MLB needs a salary cap.  Most of them don’t seem excited about canceling a season, though, so I’ve floated the question of whether there might be other ways to get competitive balance.

Revenue sharing is a longstanding effort to level the playing field.  As the CBA explains, “The Clubs and the Association recognize that the participation of two Clubs is necessary for the production of the on-field competition that the Clubs sell to the public. The net payments and net receipts required by this Article XXIV reflect a continuation of the amounts paid directly to the visiting Clubs and are in recognition of the principle that visiting Clubs should share, and in fact traditionally have shared, in the economic benefits jointly generated by the Game at another Club’s home field.”

Much like the players and the salary cap, in the last CBA negotiations in 2021-22, when it came to topics such as “getting to free agency and arbitration earlier, in revenue sharing and in service time,” MLB took “hardline stances,” according to Drellich.  In February 2022, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand wrote, “MLB has maintained from the start that reducing revenue sharing and expanding Super 2 eligibility are non-starters for the league.”

It would seem, then, that both sides have at least one “non-starter.”  For the players, it’s a salary cap.  And for MLB, one of their various non-starters is revenue sharing.  Perhaps the players don’t have a seat at the table on how much money is paid into revenue sharing, how much each team receives, and how that money is spent.

We know that 14 teams are receiving revenue sharing, apparently topping out around the Marlins’ $70MM in recent years (that does not include luxury tax distributions).  We also know that the Dodgers have a level of revenue and profit that many feel are breaking the game.  Fans are very concerned about competitive balance, and the commissioner says he wants to address their concerns.

A salary cap is the widely-discussed solution, but one that could cause the loss of a season.  It’s worth noting, too, that regular season games and the World Series could get cancelled and owners still might fail in installing a salary cap, as happened in 1994-95.  In that scenario, we get all of the destruction of the game and none of the desired competitive balance.

Another solution, then, is for MLB’s 30 owners to solve competitive balance themselves.  On a rudimentary level, this would involve a team like the Dodgers contributing even more money into revenue sharing, and recipients being required to spend most of it on player payroll.

This is all theoretical, but there is an amount of money that Marlins could receive from revenue sharing that would enable them to sign Kyle Tucker for $60MM a year and still be a profitable team (whether that’s a good use of $60MM is a whole other story).  The competitive balance goal is for small market teams to be able to compete for top free agents and retain their own stars, I think.

Similarly, there likely is a level of taxation, draft pick loss, and revenue sharing (all basically penalties that form a soft cap) that would make the Dodgers choose not to pay $120MM for one year of Tucker.  In the present system, we have clearly not reached that level for the Dodgers, but that’s not to say it doesn’t exist.  Perhaps if the Dodgers end up moving from “wildly profitable” to just “profitable,” Guggenheim would decide to sell the team to an outfit that is comfortable with that.

You can guess why we’re not actually going down this path of MLB owners solving competitive balance themselves: they’d never agree to it.  Approval would be needed from 23 of the 30 ownership groups.  To me, this idea is just the flip side of a salary cap, to which the players have said they will never agree.  I believe both approaches to be equally viable toward improving competitive balance, except that neither side wants to be the one paying for it.

For those who read this entire post, thank you.  I’ll be interested to read your takes in the comments, and I encourage everyone to be respectful.  For Trade Rumors Front Office members, my mailbag will return next week.

Guardians Agree To Extension With Jose Ramirez

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Longtime Guardians star Jose Ramirez has agreed to another extension with the team, keeping the star third baseman in Cleveland through his age-39 season in 2032.  The new deal (which will be official pending a physical) both restructures the three years and $69MM remaining on Ramirez’s previous contract, and adds $106MM in new money covering the 2029-32 seasons.  Ramirez is represented by Republik Sports.

The biggest new wrinkle in the extension is $70MM in deferred money.  Ramirez will earn $25MM in each of the seven seasons from 2026-32, but with $10MM in deferrals each year.  This means that the $69MM Ramirez was initially slated to earn from 2026-28 has now been bumped down to $45MM in upfront money, giving the Guardians some extra flexibility to perhaps make other short-term roster additions.  The new deal also includes increased incentive bonuses, such as $500K for an MVP award.

Assuming the extension is finalized, it should ensure that Ramirez remains in a Guards uniform throughout the entirety of his career, only further cementing his place as a Cleveland baseball legend.  Ramirez signed with the organization as an international free agent in 2009 at age 17, and has gone on to hit .279/.353/.504 with 285 home runs and 287 steals (out of 349 chances) over 6759 plate appearances.  Between his strong offense and impressive glovework at third base, Ramirez has amassed 57.6 bWAR over his career — the fifth-highest total of any player in Indians/Guardians history.

Ramirez turned 33 last September but doesn’t appear to be slowing down, as he hit .283/.360/.503 with 30 homers and a career-best 44 steals over 673 PA.  These big numbers and his leading role in the Guardians’ late-season surge to the AL Central title helped Ramirez earn a third-place finish in AL MVP voting.  While the MVP trophy continues to elude Ramirez, he has now recorded a second-place finish (in 2020), three thirds, and three other top-six placements during his outstanding career.

While Ramirez continues to deliver elite production, committing $106MM to a player (especially through his age 36-39 seasons) is no small matter for a lower-payroll team like the Guardians.  The new money included in Ramirez’s extension represents the third-highest guarantee Cleveland has ever given to a player, behind just Ramirez’s previous extension and their seven-year, $106.5MM extension with the since-traded Andres Gimenez in 2023.  That said, the $70MM worth of deferred money will lower the current-day price tag of the extension, and allow some extra payroll flexibility for the front office.

This is the third extension Ramirez has signed with Cleveland, as his first multi-year pact with the team was a five-year, $26MM deal covering the 2017-2021 seasons that included a pair of club options.  Obviously Ramirez vastly outperformed his paycheck in that deal, and after exercising their 2022 option to retain Ramirez, the Guardians and the third baseman worked out the second extension that saw five years and $124MM in new money added in April 2022.

It was known that the Guardians explored trade scenarios involving Ramirez prior to that 2022 extension, as it has long been the organization’s habit to trade star players before reaching free agency.  While not every deal of a star has worked out, the Guards have hit on enough of these trades to replenish their system with younger (and cheaper) talent while avoiding the higher price tags associated with players nearing the end of their arbitration control.

Ramirez is the exception to the rule.  The seven-time All-Star has been open about how much he enjoys playing in Cleveland, and he has backed up that stance by leaving tens of millions of dollars on the table to re-up with the Guards not once, but now twice.  Of course, it remains to be seen how productive Ramirez will still be by the end of the 2028 season, yet this added $106MM could be viewed as something of a thank-you to a star player for his years of service, as well an investment in the idea that Ramirez will continue delivering big numbers.

The timing of the extension is interesting, as there was seemingly no huge rush to tack more years onto a deal that already ran through 2028.  However, the Guards may have wanted to get something done in advance of the next collective bargaining agreement, as rumors persist that the league (as part of their overall desire to curb playing spending) may at least look into some kinds of restrictions against deferred money in contracts.  The Dodgers have most famously included deferrals in many of their high-priced deals in recent years, though Cleveland’s new pact with Ramirez is the latest example of how both big-market and small-market teams frequently use deferred money to complete contracts.

Z101 Digital’s Hector Gomez was the first to report about the agreement and described it as complete, though Jon Heyman of the New York Post added that Ramirez and the Guardians were still “working on” the agreement.  Gomez reported the $106MM in new money, Heyman added the detail about the $70MM in deferrals, and The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal had the year-to-year financial breakdown over the seven years.  ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported that the deal had been agreed upon, pending a physical.

Inset image courtesy of Matt Krohn – Imagn Images

Yu Darvish Contemplating Retirement, Has Not Made Final Decision

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7:05 pm: Darvish added in another statement that he and the Padres have discussed terminating his contract since last year, although discussions between those parties and the Players’ Association have not been finalized. He maintained that he wants to pitch again if his rehab goes well. “If I can thoroughly complete my rehab and feel confident that I can pitch in games both mentally and physically, I’d like to start over and compete from scratch again. As for this year, I plan to go to Petco Park for rehab as well, and also attend a bit of spring training.”

5:50 pm: Padres starter Yu Darvish is contemplating retirement, but he has not yet made a final decision. An initial report from Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune indicated that Darvish was retiring. Darvish’s agent, Joel Wolfe, refuted that, saying, “Yu has not made a final decision yet. This is a complicated matter we are still working through” (link via Alden Gonzalez of ESPN).

Darvish addressed the situation through a statement on his X account. “Although I am leaning towards voiding the contract,” he said, “there’s still a lot that has to be talked over with the Padres so the finer details are yet to be decided. Also I will not be announcing my retirement yet. Right now I am fully focused on my rehab for my elbow, and if I get to a point where I can throw again, I will start from scratch again to compete. If once I get to that point I feel I can’t do that, I will announce my retirement.”

The 39-year-old right-hander is owed $43MM over 2026-28 from the extension he and the Padres signed in 2023. If he retires without reaching a settlement, he would forfeit that money. As Darvish indicated, he and the Padres may be working on a buyout that would see him keep some portion of his salary while giving the team significant cost savings over the next three years.

If he does decide to retire, he’ll be wrapping up an incredible 21-year career across Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball and MLB. In 2005, Darvish made his debut at age 18 for the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters in NPB. He pitched 94 1/3 innings over 14 starts as a rookie that year, following it up with a 2.89 ERA in 149 2/3 innings in 2006. The Ham Fighters won the Japan Series in the latter year, with Darvish making his first start in Game 1 and earning the win in the clinching Game 5.

From 2007-11, he was absolutely dominant, totaling 1,024 1/3 innings with a 1.72 ERA and 1,083 strikeouts. Darvish was an NPB All-Star in every season in that span, twice being named the Pacific League MVP (2007 and 2009) and winning the Sawamura Award (NPB’s equivalent of the Cy Young) in 2007. His final NPB season in 2011 was sensational. Darvish posted an 18-6 record in a career-high 232 innings with a microscopic 1.44 ERA, along with 276 strikeouts and just five home runs allowed all season.

Following the season, the Ham Fighters made him available to MLB clubs via the posting system. The Texas Rangers outbid the other suitors with a massive $51.7MM posting fee to the Ham Fighters (proportional posting fees not having been established yet). The team ultimately signed Darvish for a six-year, $56MM guarantee.

In his debut MLB season in 2012, Darvish pitched 191 1/3 innings over 29 starts with a 3.90 ERA, a 27.1% strikeout rate, and a stellar 46.2% groundball rate. He made his first playoff start in the AL Wild Card Game against the Orioles, pitching 6 2/3 innings with seven strikeouts and no walks but earning a tough-luck loss. He was valued at 4.7 WAR that year according to FanGraphs, which stands as the highest mark of his career to date. He also earned the first of five All-Star nods in the majors and finished third in AL Rookie of the Year voting.

His 2013 season was just as dominant. Darvish lowered his ERA to 2.83 in 209 2/3 innings as the Rangers’ ace and upped his strikeout rate to 32.9%. He earned his second All-Star nod and finished as the runner-up to Max Scherzer in the AL Cy Young vote, while his 277 strikeouts that year were the best of his MLB career. He was an All-Star again in 2014, but he was placed on the injured list with elbow inflammation in mid-August and missed the rest of the season. He experienced further soreness during Spring Training the following year and ultimately underwent Tommy John surgery, missing the entire 2015 season.

Darvish returned in May 2016 and picked up where he left off. In 100 1/3 innings over 17 starts that year, he posted a 3.41 ERA with a 31.7% strikeout rate and a 7.5% walk rate. He was a bit less effective the following year, with a 4.01 ERA in 22 starts before being sent to the Dodgers at the trade deadline in exchange for three prospects led by Willie Calhoun. Darvish’s strikeout and walk numbers improved in nine regular-season starts in Los Angeles, but he struggled in the World series against the Astros with subpar starts in Games 3 and 7.

Still, Darvish’s track record as a front-of-the-rotation arm made him a top target in free agency. In February 2018, he signed a six-year, $126MM deal to join the Cubs. He wound up spending 2018-20 on the North Side. He struggled with injuries and ineffectiveness in 2018, pitching just 40 innings over eight starts. He rebounded in 2019 with a 3.98 ERA and a 31.3% strikeout rate in 178 2/3 innings. In 12 starts during the COVID-shortened 2020 season, he was utterly dominant with a 2.01 ERA and just a 4.7% walk rate, finishing second in the NL Cy Young vote.

The Cubs traded Darvish to the Padres that December, and he has been with San Diego ever since. Darvish’s strikeouts began to wane in his mid-30s, but he compensated by improving his control. From 2021-25, his walk rate sat in the 6% range and never topped 7.5% in a season (2023). His best Padres season to date was in 2022, as Darvish made 30 starts with a 3.10 ERA and a 20.8% K-BB rate, the latter being ninth-best among qualified starters.

The club was confident enough in his performance to extend him heading into 2023. The deal was for six years and $108MM, of which five years and $90MM were new money. In the first three years of that deal, Darvish has made 55 starts with a 4.41 ERA while struggling with injuries. He made five trips to the IL from 2024-25, most recently for an internal brace procedure on his throwing elbow this past October. While coming with a shorter recovery period than a second Tommy John surgery, Darvish was still set to miss the entire 2026 season regardless.

In an interview last month, Darvish indicated that he was focused on getting healthy and returning to pitching, though a later report from Acee indicated that retirement was on the table. This latest update suggests that Darvish is contemplating the end of his career, but that he is still open to returning if his rehab goes well. Further details could be made public soon, pending the outcome of his talks with the Padres.

Photo courtesy of David Banks, Imagn Images

Nationals Rebuffed Interest From Giants In CJ Abrams

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The Giants made an unsuccessful push to acquire CJ Abrams from the Nationals, reports Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic. It’s not clear precisely what package San Francisco would have put together, though Baggarly adds that they were open to building the deal around top shortstop prospect Josuar Gonzalez.

Washington traded MacKenzie Gore to the Rangers for a five-player package led by last year’s first-rounder Gavin Fien. The Washington Post reported they’ve been shopping Abrams as well, albeit with potentially a loftier ask than they had on Gore. Abrams is under arbitration control for three seasons compared to Gore’s two.

In each of the past two seasons, Abrams has been an excellent hitter through the All-Star Break before tailing off in the second half. He has been a little better than average overall, hitting .252/.315/.433 in more than 1200 plate appearances over the past two years. Abrams has 39 homers and 62 stolen bases with slightly lower than average strikeout and walk marks in that time. He’s an above-average regular who has an All-Star level ceiling that he has yet to consistently reach.

Abrams gives back some of the value with the glove. He’s one of the weaker shortstops in MLB and trails only Elly De La Cruz with 39 errors over the past two seasons. They’ve mostly been of the throwing variety, yet Statcast hasn’t looked favorably upon his range either. Abrams would project better at second base or potentially in center field. He has been a full-time shortstop on a Washington team that has probably had the worst all-around infield defense in the majors.

Despite the drawbacks, Abrams should have substantial appeal on the trade market. He’s a 25-year-old plus athlete who fits somewhere in the middle of the diamond. He’s a former sixth overall pick and top prospect who has stretches where he’s an excellent table-setter in one of the top two lineup spots. The Giants surely would have moved him to second rather than playing him at shortstop over Willy Adames.

Gonzalez respectively placed 30th and 44th on updated Top 100 prospect lists from Baseball America and MLB Pipeline this week. None of the players whom the Nationals acquired for Gore landed on either list. It seems fair to assume Washington’s evaluators rate Fien more highly than those outlets do. They probably would not have traded two years of Gore’s arbitration window if they didn’t feel they were getting a Top 100 caliber talent.

It’s also possible they’re simply not as high on Gonzalez as some others. It’s common for clubs to have differing opinions on prospects. That’s especially true for someone like Gonzalez, an 18-year-old whose professional experience consists of 52 games in the Dominican Summer League. Teams don’t have much of a statistical track record with which to work, so evaluations for players that far from MLB readiness are weighted very heavily towards their individual scouts.

In any case, Baggarly’s report certainly doesn’t push back against the idea that the Nationals could demand more for Abrams than they had for Gore. The report suggests that while the Giants aren’t interested in trading their top prospect, rookie first baseman Bryce Eldridge, they discussed most of their other high-end talents with Washington. Eldridge and Gonzalez are San Francisco’s only Top 100 prospects at MLB Pipeline. Baseball America had outfielder Bo Davidson and infielder Jhonny Level in the back quarter of their list. Baggarly’s piece has more specifics on the prospects who surfaced in conversations, and Giants fans are encouraged to give it a full read.

Abrams would have been the prize of a quiet San Francisco offseason to date. They opted for floor over ceiling with their rotation signings of Tyler Mahle and Adrian Houser. They’ve done nothing to address a lackluster outfield (especially in right), nor have they come away with their desired upgrade over Casey Schmitt at second base. He’s a passable regular but fits better as a high-end utility infielder. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported last week that the Giants were looking for a significant second base move on the trade front.

San Francisco has been linked to Brendan Donovan and Nico Hoerner at various points throughout the offseason. Neither player has been traded. Donovan still seems likelier than not to move — certainly before the trade deadline if not by Opening Day — while the Cubs should be reluctant to deal Hoerner. Abrams is still available as well, although it’s not clear if those teams intend to reengage.

Rangers Acquire MacKenzie Gore

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The Nationals have sent left-hander MacKenzie Gore to the Rangers for a package of five prospects, per announcements from both clubs. The five players are shortstop Gavin Fien, right-hander Alejandro Rosario, first baseman/outfielder Abimelec Ortiz, infielder Devin Fitz-Gerald and outfielder Yeremy Cabrera. Gore and Ortiz were the only players with 40-man spots, so the deal is 40-man neutral and no corresponding moves were required.

Gore, 27, has been one of the more obvious trade candidates of this offseason. Back at the start of November, MLBTR’s list of the top trade candidates of the winter had him in the #1 spot. That was partly due to Gore’s appeal as a potential budding ace and also the team’s situation.

The Nationals have been stuck in a rebuild for quite a while now. They won the World Series in 2019 but haven’t finished above .500 since then. They traded players like Max Scherzer, Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber and Juan Soto in 2021 and 2022. It was hoped that Washington could be back to relevance by now but the rebuild stalled out. Things dragged to such a degree that heads rolled. President of baseball operations Mike Rizzo and manager Dave Martinez were both fired during last season.

Paul Toboni, previously an assistant general manager with Boston, was hired to replace Rizzo as the front office leader. The general expectation in the industry is that he will get some time to turn the ship around and get the Nats into contention again, as opposed to having the pressure of trying to win immediately. Gore is only two years away from free agency, making him a trade candidate in those circumstances. As a Boras Corporation client, a contract extension was probably going to be hard to put together.

On top of all that, there’s Gore’s track record and affordability. He was once a top prospect, getting selected third overall by the Pades in 2017. He was flipped to the Nats as part of the aforementioned Soto trade. Gore hasn’t quite lived up to his potential yet, with a 4.19 earned run average in 532 1/3 innings. However, he looked on the verge of a huge breakout for most of 2025.

Last year, Gore made 19 starts for the Nats through the All-Star break. He logged 110 1/3 innings in those with a 3.02 ERA. His 7.7% walk rate was a bit better than average and his 30.5% strikeout rate was quite strong. That strikeout rate was behind just four other qualified pitchers in baseball at that time. Tarik Skubal led the pack at 33.4%, followed by Zack Wheeler, Garrett Crochet and Hunter Brown.

Unfortunately, Gore wasn’t able to stick the landing. He went on the injured list at the end of August due to shoulder inflammation. He was reinstated about two weeks later but then returned to the IL late in September due to a right ankle impingement. Around those IL stints, he tossed 49 1/3 innings with a 6.75 ERA. That bumped his season-long ERA to 4.17.

Despite the poor finish, Gore remained an enticing player. The strong run to the All-Star break showed his ceiling and it’s an appealing arsenal. He averaged over 95 miles per hour with his four-seamer last year while mixing in a curveball, slider, cutter and changeup. He’s also quite affordable. He’s going into his second of three arbitration seasons and will be making $5.6MM this year. He’ll be due another raise in 2027 before he’s slated to reach free agency.

The trade market for starting pitching has been robust this winter. The Orioles sent four prospects and a draft pick to the Rays for three years of Shane Baz. The Cubs sent three players, including their top prospect, to the Marlins for three years of Edward Cabrera. Last night, the Mets sent two of their top prospects to the Brewers for one year of Freddy Peralta.

Gore’s track record of success isn’t quite as long as Peralta’s but Gore offers an extra year of control. Baz and Cabrera offered one extra year compared to Gore but haven’t shown the same kind of ace upside and both have checkered injury histories. Given the difficulty in evaluating the future outcomes of prospects, it’s impossible to say which package will provide the most long-term value.

For the Rangers, it’s understandable that they would prefer the trade route to free agency this winter, as there have been signs that money is tight. The team and manager Bruce Bochy parted ways at the end of last year with the club’s financial uncertainty cited as playing a role in that break-up. Pitching coach Mike Maddux departed for the Angels, with some suggestion that may have been financially motivated as well.

In terms of the roster, the Rangers traded three years of Marcus Semien to get five years of Brandon Nimmo, with Nimmo making less annually. Various reports from December suggested that the club couldn’t even afford mid-market free agents like J.T. Realmuto or Luis Arráez.

But upgrading the rotation was still on the to-do list. The club saw Merrill Kelly, Jon Gray, Patrick Corbin and Tyler Mahle all depart via free agency at season’s end. They went into the winter with a strong one-two of Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi, but a drop-off after that. Jack Leiter seemed to earn himself a rotation job with a 3.86 ERA last year but his strikeout and walk rates were only average-ish. Jacob Latz had a good season in a swing role but hasn’t been a full-time big league starter yet. Kumar Rocker is a former top prospect but hasn’t put it together in the majors yet.

Gore immediately upgrades the group, especially if he can get back to his first-half performance from 2025. He slots into the front three with deGrom and Eovaldi, bumps Leiter to a back-end role for now and perhaps creates a competition for a fifth spot between Latz, Rocker and others. There is a cliff over the horizon as Eovaldi and Gore are both slated for free agency after 2027. deGrom’s deal has a club option for 2028, with the value conditional on Cy Young voting and inning tallies, though he’ll be 40 by then. But for the next two years, the rotation has a strong core three.

To get that rotation upgrade while avoiding the free agent market, the Rangers have had to part with a notable pile of prospects. Fien appears to be the headliner here. The Rangers just took him 12th overall in the 2025 draft. They gave him a $4.8MM bonus to get him to forgo a commitment to the University of Texas. Still just 18, turning 19 in March, he’s a long-term play.

Baseball America lists him as the #3 prospect in the Texas system. He gets high praise for his offense but with bigger questions about his defense. Most evaluators expect him to be moved off shortstop in the long run, with third base or the outfield corners potential outcomes.

Kiley McDaniel of ESPN writes that the Red Sox really wanted Fien in last year’s draft but they didn’t pick until 15th, three spots behind Texas. Toboni was running Boston’s draft as assistant general manager at the time. Now that he is running his own front office, he apparently made Fien a priority and has used Gore as a means of getting his guy.

Fitz-Gerald, Rosario and Cabrera are a few spots behind Fien on BA’s list, coming in at #8, #13 and #14 respectively. Fitz-Gerald is a 20-year-old infielder who was drafted in the fifth round in 2024. He got into 41 games between the Complex League and Single-A last year, slashing .302/.428/.482. A left shoulder strain prevented him from taking on a bigger workload. He seems to do a decent amount of stuff well without a standout tool. BA suggests a future as a multi-positional player with a bit of pop and speed.

Rosario, 24, was a fifth-round pick in 2023. He had a strong season in 2024, posting a 2.24 ERA between Single-A and High-A, but has been on the shelf since then. He missed 2025 due to an elbow injury and is soon set to undergo Tommy John surgery, so he’ll miss the entire 2026 season as well. His strong 2024 campaign made him a top 100 prospect, with BA having him at #49 going into 2025, but he’ll be a long-term question mark after two entirely missed seasons. He’ll be Rule 5 eligible this coming December.

Cabrera, 20, was an international signing out of the Dominican Republic. He spent last year in Single-A with a strong walk and strikeout profile but only eight home runs. He’s considered a strong defender in the outfield and he stole 43 bases last year.

Ortiz, 24 next month, has the least prospect hype of this group but is the one closest to impacting the major league club. He split last year between Double-A and Triple-A, hitting 25 home runs and walking in 11.7% of his plate appearances. He had a combined line of .257/.356/.479 and a 124 wRC+. He was added to the Texas 40-man roster a couple of months ago to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft.

Though his numbers in the minors look good on the surface, he has a propensity to chase breaking balls. Evaluators fear that will limit him to being a platoon bat in the majors. He’s also not a strong defender or baserunner, so he needs to hit to carry the profile. Washington has a pretty wide open first base/designated hitter mix, so he can force his way in there if he hits. He also has three option years and can be kept in the minors if he doesn’t.

With four of the five players being long-term plays, it would appear that Washington is just trying to grab whichever players it considers the most talented, as opposed to trying to rush a move towards contending in the near term. Perhaps that was isolated to this deal of their biggest trade chip but it could perhaps indicate that the club is generally operating with a long lens. For the Rangers, losing most of these players won’t hurt them in the short term but it does cut into the system more broadly. As of August, BA ranked them 26th in the league in terms of overall system talent.

CJ Abrams has also been floated as a trade candidate for Washington but with less certainty than Gore as he has three years of club control remaining. The Nats could now pivot to marketing him but his stock is also down a bit due to a poor finish to his most recent season, and in 2024 as well. Perhaps they will hold him for another season to see if he can raise his trade value.

It is clearly an offseason about loading up on future talent for the Nats. They also traded reliever Jose A. Ferrer to the Mariners for catcher Harry Ford and right-hander Isaac Lyon. This deal adds five more intriguing young players to the pipeline.

It also opens up more rotation chances for their other pitchers. As of now, they project to have Cade Cavalli, Foster Griffin, Josiah Gray, Brad Lord, Jake Irvin and Mitchell Parker in the mix for starts. Arms like Jake Eder, Luis Perales, Riley Cornelio and Andrew Alvarez will be looking to push in there as well. Perhaps the Gore deal with be followed by the Nats signing a veteran to eat some innings but they could also leave space for the guys in that group.

Due to Gore’s appeal, he reportedly drew interest from half the teams in the league. Some of those clubs moved on to other trade candidates or signed free agents. For those still on the hunt for starting pitching, the market is drying up but they may still have options. As mentioned, a lot of the trade candidates have already changed hands. The Red Sox may have enough depth after their Ranger Suárez signing to flip someone else. The Royals may be willing to part with someone. Free agency still has Framber Valdez, Zac Gallen, Chris Bassitt and a few others.

Jon Heyman of The New York Post first reported Gore was headed to Texas. Jeff Passan of ESPN first laid out the five-for-one framework. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News first reported Fien’s inclusion. Spencer Nusbaum of The Washington Post first mentioned Rosario. Grant then reported Ortiz and Fitz-Gerald, followed by Andrew Golden of The Washington Post adding Cabrera.

Photos courtesy of Brett Davis, Eric Hartline, Kevin Jairaj, Joe Camporeale, Imagn Images

Brewers Trade Freddy Peralta To Mets

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The Mets make another splash, acquiring All-Star starter Freddy Peralta and swingman Tobias Myers from the Brewers for prospects Jett Williams and Brandon Sproat. The teams announced the blockbuster trade on Wednesday night. New York designated right-hander Cooper Criswell for assignment in a corresponding move.

After losing out on Kyle Tucker, the Mets have signed Bo Bichette and traded for Luis Robert Jr. and Peralta. Tonight’s move is arguably the biggest of the three, as Peralta gives them a legitimate #1 starter atop what had been a talented but volatile rotation. He’s coming off a career season that landed him fifth in NL Cy Young balloting.

Peralta set a career mark with 176 2/3 innings while managing a personal-best 2.70 earned run average. He punched out 28.2% of opponents behind a near-13% swinging strike rate while issuing walks at a 9.1% clip. Peralta’s underlying marks have been consistently strong over his five seasons as a full-time starter. He misses bats at a plus rate with solid command. He had been a little susceptible to the longball between 2023-24, which elevated his ERA slightly (3.77) over that span. A dip in homer rate was the biggest factor in last year’s results, but estimators like FIP and SIERA feel he has been more or less the same pitcher five years running.

The 6’0″ righty challenges hitters with his fastball, a 94-95 MPH offering that plays up because of its plus spin and life. He backs that up with a changeup that he’ll throw to hitters of either handedness and a pair of breaking balls (though he only uses his slider against righties). His willingness to attack hitters up in the zone with the fastball leads to a fly-ball approach and the occasional home run, but it’s a worthwhile tradeoff for the few baserunners he’ll allow. Opposing hitters have mustered a .210/.288/.367 batting line over the past three seasons.

Peralta also brings an excellent durability track record to stabilize a rotation that was light on established innings sources. He hasn’t required a single stint on the injured list in three years. He’s tied for fifth with 95 starts and ranks 15th with 516 innings over that stretch. Only Dylan Cease and Zack Wheeler have more strikeouts in that time. Peralta and Cease are the only pitchers to record 200+ strikeouts in each of the past three seasons. He battled some shoulder issues in 2021-22, including a lat strain that limited him to 18 appearances four years ago, but his recent health record has been clean.

Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns knows Peralta well from his time running baseball operations with Milwaukee. He’s probably the best starting pitcher who’ll get traded this offseason, so the Mets would surely have been involved even without that connection, but the familiarity only made him a more natural fit. Stearns also brought back closer Devin Williams on a three-year free agent contract as his biggest bullpen move of the winter.

The Stearns-led front office wisely locked Peralta up on an extension before his breakout. Peralta had been an unheralded amateur signee by the Mariners whom the Brewers acquired as one of three prospects in an Adam Lind trade when he was in rookie ball. He worked in a swing role with mixed results over his first two seasons. Milwaukee secured him on a $15.5MM guarantee with a pair of $8MM club options over the 2019-20 offseason. It almost immediately became one of the sport’s most team-friendly contracts.

Peralta is headed into the final season of that deal and playing on the second of those $8MM options. The Mets will happily pick up that salary and the associated $8.8MM luxury tax hit. RosterResource projects them for a $365MM competitive balance tax payroll. They ended last season with $347MM in CBT commitments and paid another $91.6MM in taxes.

This is much more affordable from a salary perspective than were the Bichette and Robert acquisitions, though the pitcher is less than a year from a monster payday of his own. He’s on track to hit free agency before his age-31 season and could command the second-largest contract in the class after Tarik Skubal. He’s a lock to reject a qualifying offer barring a major injury. The Mets would receive a compensation pick after the fourth round in ’27 if he walks. As a revenue sharing recipient, Milwaukee would’ve gotten a pick after the first round had they kept him (assuming he signed elsewhere for $50MM+).

The Mets will presumably make an effort to keep him long term, but the main focus is on 2026. Peralta slots ahead of touted rookie Nolan McLean at the top of the staff. Sean Manaea, Clay Holmes, David Peterson and Kodai Senga are also penciled into what could be a six-man rotation — though the latter two have come up in trade rumors this offseason. Jonah Tong didn’t dominate the way McLean did after a late-season promotion, but he’s a top prospect who’ll be in the mix. They’re getting another touted arm, Christian Scott, back from elbow surgery.

Myers projects for a swing role but is likely to make some starts over the course of a 162-game season as well. The 27-year-old righty is more than a throw-in addition, as he has pitched well for Milwaukee over the past two years. Myers held a rotation spot for the majority of the ’24 season. He started 25 of 27 games as a rookie and posted an even 3.00 earned run average through 138 innings. He recorded a solid 22.3% strikeout rate while limiting his walks to a 6.3% clip.

An oblique strain sidelined Myers to open last season. The Brewers activated him in late April but optioned him to Triple-A after a handful of shaky appearances. Myers was up and down in a swing role for the remainder of the season. He was mostly squeezed out of the rotation by Milwaukee’s bigger arms, but he pitched well in the second half and finished the year with a 3.55 ERA across 50 2/3 frames. He had similar numbers over 12 starts with Triple-A Nashville.

Myers works in the 93-94 MPH range with his fastball. He uses a cutter and slider as his breaking balls and tweaked his changeup to more of a splitter midway through last season. The pitch got good results in a small sample, as opponents hit .108 while swinging through it almost 40% of the time. That should give him a better offering against left-handed hitters after he struggled with southpaws as a rookie.

The righty has between one and two years of service time. He won’t reach arbitration for another two seasons and is under club control through 2030. He has a minor league option remaining, which gives the Mets flexibility to move him between MLB and Triple-A Syracuse.

The Brewers deserve credit for helping Myers develop into a serviceable back-end starter. He’d once been a reasonably well-regarded prospect — Cleveland regrettably traded Junior Caminero to the Rays for him when the slugging infielder was in rookie ball — but he’d seemingly hit a wall in the upper minors. Milwaukee added him as a minor league free agent over the 2022-23 offseason, and he’s now a secondary but meaningful part of a trade that netted them a pair of top prospects.

Williams and Sproat each placed on the back half of Baseball America’s Top 100 prospects list, which was released this morning. BA had Williams as the slightly more highly regarded of the two, but they’re essentially within the same tier. Williams is a right-handed hitter whom the Mets took in the first round out of a Dallas-area high school in 2022. He’s on the shorter side at 5’7″ but has plus athleticism and an up-the-middle defensive profile. Scouts credit him with plus speed and a strong arm with more power than one might expect based on his size.

That athleticism was on display in the upper minors. Williams combined for 17 homers and 34 stolen bases while hitting .261/.363/.465 across 572 plate appearances. He looked no worse for wear after a right wrist surgery had cost him a good chunk of the ’24 season. Williams raked at a .281/.390/.477 clip in Double-A. He struggled after a second half promotion to Triple-A, where he hit .209 with a .285 on-base percentage across 34 games. That’s not a huge concern for a 21-year-old who would have been young for the level even if he’d spent the entire season in Double-A.

Williams is a patient hitter who has worked a lot of walks in the minors. Although big league pitchers will be better positioned to attack the smaller strike zone, he has the makings of a potential top-of-the-lineup spark plug. Williams has played mostly shortstop and has experience at second base and in center field. He’s likely to begin the season at Triple-A Nashville and could challenge Joey Ortiz or Garrett Mitchell/Blake Perkins for playing time midway through the season.

Sproat, 25, is a big league ready rotation option. A second-round pick out of the University of Florida in 2023, he debuted as a September call-up. The 6’3″ righty made four starts, giving up 11 runs across 20 2/3 innings. Sproat otherwise spent the season in Triple-A, where he worked to a 4.24 ERA across 121 frames. He fanned 22.1% of opponents while issuing walks at a slightly elevated 10.4% clip. He has a six-pitch mix and works in the 96-97 MPH range on his sinker and four-seam fastball.

Baseball America’s scouting report credits Sproat with a plus changeup and slider. They write that he has the upside of an average or better starter, albeit with some relief risk based on his average control. He’s not as highly-regarded as McLean or Tong, but it’s not surprising the Mets weren’t willing to part with either of those prospects for a rental. McLean seems categorically untouchable. Michael Marino reported that Milwaukee had tried to involve Tong in discussions on Peralta but were quickly rebuffed. They then turned to a Williams/Sproat framework. It seems they needed to part with Myers to push the deal over the top.

Milwaukee wasn’t going to move Peralta without landing a strong prospect return. His salary was affordable enough that they didn’t need to trade him for salary relief. They certainly weren’t going to re-sign him, though, and it’s their usual operating procedure to hear clubs out on veteran stars who are approaching free agency. It doesn’t make a trade inevitable — they held Willy Adames and let him walk for a compensatory draft pick — but Peralta joins Josh Hader, Corbin Burnes and Williams as recent stars traded within a year or two of reaching the open market.

The Brewers never go into a full rebuild. They’re coming off a 97-win season and advanced to the NLCS. They’ll expect to compete for a fourth consecutive NL Central title. Milwaukee won the division in ’24 after the Burnes trade, which was the most direct parallel for their decision on Peralta. They also landed two prospects in that deal, Ortiz and left-hander DL Hall, who were borderline Top 100 talents who were at the MLB level. Williams and Sproat are probably a little more highly-regarded than the players they got in the Burnes trade, though their deal with Baltimore also included a competitive balance draft pick and didn’t involve the secondary piece in Myers.

Brandon Woodruff will slot atop the rotation after accepting the qualifying offer. Quinn Priester, Jacob Misiorowski, Logan Henderson, Chad Patrick, Robert Gasser and Sproat could all battle for jobs. The Brewers haven’t closed the door on giving Angel Zerpa or Aaron Ashby rotation looks, though they’re each likelier to end up in relief. President of baseball operations Matt Arnold acknowledged that getting Woodruff back made them more comfortable parting with Peralta (relayed by Curt Hogg of The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel).

There’s a lot of upside with this group, but they’ll probably need to dip into the lower tiers of free agency for a back-end arm to provide innings. RosterResource projects their payroll around $126MM, roughly $11MM north of where they began the ’25 season. They should nevertheless be able to sign a starter for a few million dollars as Spring Training approaches. They wouldn’t have issued the QO to Woodruff if ownership weren’t willing to approve at least a slight payroll bump.

Milwaukee fans are familiar with the churn, but it’s surely a blow to lose another homegrown star and fan favorite. Peralta was third in franchise history in strikeouts and eighth in wins. He’s a two-time All-Star who has been a part of seven playoff teams over the past eight years. He’s out of the division but anchoring the rotation for what looks to be one of their top competitors in the National League.

Michael Marino first reported that the Brewers and Mets were discussing Peralta for Williams and Sproat. Pat Ragazzo of Sports Illustrated indicated talks were accelerating, while Jeff Passan of ESPN first had the agreement. Joel Sherman of The New York Post reported Myers’ inclusion. Respective images courtesy of Benny Sieu, Michael McLoone, Sam Navarro and Brad Penner — Imagn Images.

Angels To Re-Sign Yoan Moncada

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The Angels are reportedly in agreement with Yoán Moncada on a one-year deal. It’s a $4MM guarantee for the client of The Movement Baseball. The Angels have an opening on the 40-man roster and will not need to make a corresponding move to finalize the contract.

Moncada is back for a second season with the Halos. It’s a similar contract to the $5MM deal that he signed last February. Moncada played reasonably well when healthy but missed a third of the season to a pair of injured list stints. A right thumb sprain and inflammation in his right knee kept him out of action for the majority of the first half. He only played in 36 games before the All-Star Break, though he was available for the entire second half.

The 30-year-old Moncada put together a .234/.336/.448 showing across 289 plate appearances. He connected on 12 home runs and drew walks at a strong 11.1% rate while striking out a little more than a quarter of the time. It was a typical Moncada season — solid power and on-base skills with lots of strikeouts and a couple injury absences.

Moncada was once the top prospect in MLB. He had a couple star-level performances with the White Sox in 2019 and ’21 but didn’t become the franchise player they expected when they signed him to a $70MM extension in Spring Training 2020. Moncada combined for a .234/.288/.386 batting line between 2022-23. He barely played in ’24 because of a serious adductor (groin) strain, and the White Sox had an easy call to buy him out for $5MM instead of a $25MM club option.

A switch-hitter, Moncada has been better from the left side of the plate over his career. The Angels used mostly in a platoon capacity last year, as he only took 27 plate appearances against southpaws. He’ll get the majority of playing time at third base but could cede some at-bats against lefties, with righty-hitting Vaughn Grissom and Denzer Guzman options for at-bats.

Grissom, acquired from the Red Sox in a buy-low trade at the Winter Meetings, is a better fit at second base. The Angels are likely to give former first-round pick Christian Moore another look at the keystone, but he struggled to a .198/.284/.370 line in his first 53 MLB games. Moore has only 30 games of Triple-A experience and could need more time in the minors. Grissom is out of options and will be on the big league roster in some capacity. Former top prospect Oswald Peraza is also out of options but seems less assured to avoid landing on waivers out of Spring Training.

The Angels have signed five MLB free agent contracts this offseason, all via one-year deals. Kirby Yates, Drew Pomeranz, Jordan Romano and Alek Manoah came aboard for $5MM or less. They’ve spent a combined $16.95MM this offseason without making any moves that extend beyond 2026. RosterResource now calculates their payroll around $180MM, about $13MM south of where they opened the ’25 season. They still need to add at least one starter and would ideally upgrade in center field, where Josh Lowe, Bryce Teodosio and Wade Meckler are the top options.

Francys Romero first reported the agreement. Jon Heyman of The New York Post had the $4MM guarantee. Image courtesy of Peter Aiken, Imagn Images.

Dodgers Sign Kyle Tucker

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The two-time defending champions have done it again. The Dodgers officially announced their four-year, $240MM contract with Kyle Tucker on Wednesday afternoon. The deal includes $30MM in deferrals and will come with an approximate $57.1MM annual value for luxury tax purposes. Tucker, a client of Excel Sports Management, receives a $64MM signing bonus — all but $10MM of which is paid upfront — and can opt out after the second or third seasons. Outfielder Michael Siani was designated for assignment in a corresponding move.

Los Angeles will pay the first $54MM signing bonus next month. They’ll owe the remaining $10MM in February 2027, and the signing bonus is guaranteed even in the event of a work stoppage. Tucker will make a $1MM salary this year, followed by a $55MM salary in ’27 and $60MM annually for the final two years if he doesn’t opt out. The team is deferring $10MM annually in the final three years, which will be paid in installments between 2036-45.

Tucker, who turns 29 on Saturday, is the latest superstar addition to what was already MLB’s most feared offense. He slots into a lineup alongside Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, Will Smith, Max Muncy, Teoscar Hernández and Tommy Edman. He’ll join Hernández and Andy Pages as the primary outfielders, with Edman capable of logging center field action when he’s not at second base.

Los Angeles has four outfield prospects who rank prominently near the top of their farm system. They reportedly wanted to avoid locking in long-term commitments as a result. They’ve accomplished that with arguably the biggest annual value in the sport’s history.

It’s a $60MM average on the surface. Without adjusting for deferrals, Tucker’s deal would be the second-highest AAV ever. Ohtani landed a $70MM AAV on his 10-year, $700MM guarantee, though the massive deferrals meant it had a “true” annual value closer to $46MM. One should therefore view the $51MM annual salary on Juan Soto’s 15-year, $765M deal as the more accurate record holder until tonight. Tucker’s adjusted AAV beats that by more than $6MM.

Although Tucker was this offseason’s top free agent, he’s a clear step below the likes of Aaron Judge, Ohtani and Soto of the previous three winters. Tucker has been a consistent All-Star who’s a little outside the top tier of superstars. The fifth overall pick by the Astros in 2015, he broke out in the shortened 2020 season after logging limited big league action in the two preceding years. He connected on 29 or 30 home runs in each of his first three full campaigns, improving his approach along the way.

Tucker was already a great hitter and seemed to be on his way to pulling closer to Judge, Soto and Ohtani with a monster start to the 2024 season. He was out to a .266/.395/.584 slash with more walks than strikeouts through the first two months. He fouled a ball off his right leg and was placed on the injured list with what the Astros initially termed a shin contusion. It turned out to be more serious, as subsequent testing revealed a fracture that kept him out for three months.

The four-time All-Star returned no worse for wear and had a fantastic September. The Astros nevertheless decided to field trade calls after the season. They were never going to meet Tucker’s asking price on an extension and felt they could cash him in for help elsewhere on the roster. They lined up a deal with the Cubs around the Winter Meetings that sent Isaac Paredes, Hayden Wesneski, and prospect Cam Smith to Houston for Tucker’s final year of arbitration.

Tucker’s lone season in Chicago had its ups and downs. He got out to another blistering start, running a .284/.359/.524 slash with 12 homers through the first day of June. He jammed his right thumb diving into second on a stolen base attempt that day. He avoided the injured list, but subsequent testing revealed that he sustained a tiny fracture at the top of his hand between his ring finger and pinky.

The hand injury wasn’t viewed as a serious issue until Tucker’s performance began to suffer. That didn’t occur right away. His next few weeks were the finest of the season, in fact. Tucker slashed .311/.404/.578 across 25 games that month. Things went off the rails in July, as he batted .189/.325/.235 with just one home run over the next six weeks.

The existence of the hairline fracture wasn’t reported until the middle of August. Cubs officials acknowledged that Tucker had been injured in June but said that he was fully healthy by the time the injury was revealed publicly. Maybe the thumb became a retroactive explanation for what was actually a simple slump, though it’s possible he developed some subtle bad habits in June as he tried to mitigate the pain of hitting through the break. Manager Craig Counsell gave Tucker a three-game mental reset towards the end of August before plugging him back into the middle of the order.

Tucker appeared to be getting back into a groove when he hit another speed bump. He strained his left calf in early September and landed on the injured list, costing him three weeks in the season’s final month. He finished the regular season with a .266/.377/.464 slash line in a little under 600 trips to the plate. He hit .259 with one homer in eight postseason games as the Cubs advanced to the NL Division Series.

The uneven second half soured some Cubs fans on the Tucker acquisition. His overall numbers were in line with his career marks. The offense was 36 percentage points better than league average by wRC+. His lifetime .273/.358/.507 batting line is 38 points above par. Tucker has been in that range in four of the past five seasons. The only exception is his .289/.408/.585 showing over 78 games two years ago.

The ’24 season is probably an outlier, but the Dodgers should feel they’re adding one of the top 10-15 hitters in MLB. He doesn’t expand the strike zone and has a rare blend of plus contact skills and above-average power. Tucker has no issue hitting pitchers of either handedness. He doesn’t have the huge exit velocities of the sport’s premier sluggers, yet he’s a safe bet for 25-30 homers in a healthy season.

Tucker’s glove isn’t as strong at this stage of his career. He won a Gold Glove with Houston in 2022. His defensive grades and sprint speed have declined as he’s gotten into his late-20s. That presumably gave teams pause when considering a long-term investment. Tucker’s defense should remain serviceable in the short term. The Dodgers can comfortably plug him into right field and kick Hernández over to left if they don’t trade him.

The Cubs issued Tucker a qualifying offer but made little effort to retain him. The bidding seemingly came down to the Dodgers, Mets and Blue Jays. New York was similarly hesitant to make a long-term commitment, as they reportedly offered a four-year deal at $55MM per season. Toronto was seemingly willing to entertain a longer term at a lower annual value.

Tucker is L.A.’s second qualified free agent signing of the offseason. They added Edwin Díaz on a three-year, $69MM deal around the Winter Meetings. They surrendered their second- and fifth-round draft choices this summer, plus $1MM from their 2027 international bonus pool, to sign Díaz. They’ll forfeit their third- and sixth-round picks for Tucker. The Cubs receive a compensatory pick between Competitive Balance Round B and the start of the third round (currently slated to land 77th overall).

MLBTR had predicted an 11-year, $400MM deal for Tucker at the beginning of the offseason. It’s unclear if any team would have been willing to go to those lengths. He’s giving up some measure of long-term security in exchange for massive salaries over the next couple seasons and the chance to return to free agency at the tail end of his prime.

He’ll have the option of retesting the market before his age-31 and age-32 campaigns — and without being attached to draft compensation barring a change to the qualifying offer rules in the intervening CBA. A five- or six-year guarantee could be well within range at that point. He’ll collect a huge signing bonus, essentially shatter the record for average annual value, and join the team with the best chance to win the World Series in the interim.

While the specific salary breakdown hasn’t been reported, the Dodgers are reportedly paying $54MM of the signing bonus right away. RosterResource estimates their cash payroll obligations close to $428MM for the upcoming season. Tucker’s $57.1MM AAV will push their competitive balance tax projection north of $395MM.

They’re taxed at a 110% rate on spending above $304MM, so Tucker’s deal comes with a staggering $62.81MM tax hit in the first season. The Dodgers are essentially valuing Tucker’s 2026 season alone at $120MM. L.A. ended last season with a luxury tax payroll of $417MM, costing them another $169.4MM in taxes. Their tax bill alone was higher than the final payroll calculations of 12 teams. They’re trending towards a similar or potentially even greater amount in 2026 depending on what else they do this offseason and at the trade deadline. The aggressiveness continues as they aim for the first three-peat in MLB since the 1998-2000 Yankees.

Tucker’s deal is going to be the latest example for many fans and smaller-market owners who will argue for a salary cap in the upcoming round of collective bargaining negotiations. This level of spending also reaffirms why the MLB Players Association has steadfastly maintained that a cap is a non-starter. Next offseason’s CBA talks are expected to be similarly or even more contentious than those that froze the sport for 99 days during the 2022-23 lockout.

That’s not the concern of the Dodgers or their fans, who’ll be thrilled to add another star as they try to cement their dynastic run. They’ll be heavy favorites in the NL West, and it’s difficult to imagine a scenario in which this team doesn’t make the playoffs. A championship is far from guaranteed, however. The Jays were one swing away from beating them in Games 6 and 7 of last year’s World Series. An extra quarter-second on Isiah Kiner-Falefa’s dash home or another few feet on Ernie Clement’s fly ball in the bottom of the ninth would have flipped the outcome. L.A. ownership and the front office aren’t getting complacent.

After missing on Tucker, the Jays seem likely to reengage with Bo Bichette. Their longtime shortstop is now the top unsigned player. He has reportedly had a productive meeting with the Phillies, but the Jays and Bichette have long expressed mutual interest in a reunion. Bichette wouldn’t be a great fit for the Mets, but they could conceivably pivot to challenging the Yankees for Cody Bellinger. The Mets still don’t have a left fielder after swapping Brandon Nimmo for Marcus Semien. Their reported offer to Tucker demonstrates there’s plenty of room for short-term spending, but president of baseball operations David Stearns has shied away from lengthy commitments this winter.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported that Tucker was signing with the Dodgers. Jon Heyman of the New York Post had it as a short-term contract, while Robert Murray of FanSided was first on the four-year, $240MM guarantee. Murray reported the opt-out after the second season, and Passan had the third-year out. Heyman reported the $30MM in deferrals. Ari Alexander of Boston 7 News was first on the $57.1MM post-deferral AAV. ESPN’s Jesse Rogers had the signing bonus details. The Associated Press had the salary breakdown and deferral specifics.

Image courtesy of Christopher Hanewinckel, Imagn Images.

Red Sox Sign Ranger Suárez

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The Red Sox officially announced the signing of left-hander Ranger Suárez to a five-year deal Wednesday. He’ll reportedly be guaranteed $130MM in total, and the contract contains a mutual option for the 2031 campaign. It’s a fairly straightforward deal that contains no deferrals, opt-outs or no-trade protection. Boston opened a 40-man spot for the veteran lefty this morning when trading infielder Tristan Gray to the Twins. Suárez is represented by the Boras Corporation.

Suárez’s contract is reportedly backloaded in significant fashion, paying him just a $3MM signing bonus and $7MM salary in 2026. He’ll earn $15MM in 2027 before his salary doubles to $30MM in each of the next two years (2028-29). Suárez will be paid $35MM in 2030 and is also guaranteed a $10MM buyout on that mutual option, which is valued at $35MM. Mutual options are never exercised by both parties, so the inclusion of one in this deal is little more than a mechanism to further backload the contract.

The Sox came into the offseason with a rotation headlined by Garrett Crochet, followed by a notable gap to their other starters. They had a lot of options for back-end types and depth but were looking to bolster the front end.

“Because of the depth that we’ve built up over the last couple of years, we feel pretty good about just overall starting pitching, maybe No. 3-ish through No. 10-ish,” was how chief baseball officer Craig Breslow framed the situation in November. “And that’s not to take away from guys who are certainly capable of doing more, and more just to say I don’t think we’re going to spend a ton of time trying to add a No. 4, No. 5 starter.”

Since then, Breslow has made a couple of moves to alter that rotation group. He acquired Sonny Gray from the Cardinals and Johan Oviedo from the Pirates. They subtracted a bit from the depth by including Richard Fitts in the Gray deal and Hunter Dobbins in a separate Cardinals trade that netted first baseman Willson Contreras.

Gray is arguably the kind of No. 2 starter the club was looking for. His 4.28 earned run average in 2025 has some Boston fans disputing that assessment but he has a 3.63 ERA, 27% strikeout rate, 6.1% walk rate and 44.6% ground ball rate in 531 innings dating back to the start of 2023. FanGraphs ranks him fifth in wins above replacement among pitchers in that time, behind only Tarik Skubal, Zack Wheeler, Logan Webb and Cristopher Sánchez.

Since the Gray deal, Boston has seemingly been more focused on upgrading its lineup and position player mix, targeting infielders like Alex Bregman, Bo Bichette, Ketel Marte, Brendan Donovan and Isaac Paredes. Clearly, Boston hit a wall in those efforts. Bregman signed with the Cubs, and Bichette landed with the Mets. The D-backs have reportedly taken Marte off the market. Paredes and Donovan could still be available, though Houston has shown minimal interest in dealing the former. Having come up empty (so far) in that pursuit of a marquee infielder, the Red Sox pivoted to further augment an already strong rotation.

Suárez’s contract is notable on a few fronts. For one, Breslow has generally avoided long-term free agent deals since becoming Boston’s chief baseball officer. Coming into today, his longest deal for a free agent was to give Bregman three years, which turned into a one-year relationship when Bregman opted out. The Sox came into today as the only one of the 30 major league clubs to not have signed a free agent this winter. This deal will be a new benchmark for Breslow in terms of years and guarantee given to a free agent, as well as erasing Boston’s status as the only team not to spend money on free agency this offseason.

It’s also a notable deal for Suárez in a few different ways. For one thing, he was a fairly low-profile international signing of the Phillies at the start of his professional career, securing a bonus of just $25K. As he has become a major leaguer, he has pushed his salary up in arbitration with his strong results but his lack of volume has limited him. He just made $8.8MM in his final year of arbitration, relatively modest by modern standards, but will now be securing a much bigger payday than ever before.

Speaking of his strong results but limited overall workload, that impacted the view of his market coming into this winter. Broadly speaking, Suárez has been really good on a rate basis, but he doesn’t throw especially hard and has dealt with some nagging injuries, impacting the overall quantity of his contributions.

He first became a full-time starter for the Phillies in 2022 and held a rotation job for four years. Over that span, he logged 588 1/3 innings with a 3.59 ERA. His 21.9% strikeout rate was around league average. His 7.5% walk rate was solid and his 50.8% ground ball rate quite good. He also earned a reputation as a cold-blooded playoff contributor, giving the Phils 42 2/3 postseason innings with a 1.48 ERA.

However, Suárez’s velocity has never been huge and has been trending down. His four-seam fastball averaged a bit over 93 miles per hour in 2022 and 2023. That dropped to 91.8 mph in 2024 and 91.3 mph last year. His primary pitch, his sinker, averaged just 90.1 mph in 2025.

Suárez also still hasn’t really pitched a full big league season. He hasn’t had any major injury concerns but has had scattered issues over the years, with lower back problems being a recurring thorn. Thanks to those sporadic health problems, he’s never hit the 30-start mark or the 160-inning plateau in any season as a big leaguer.

Given his clear skills but also his question marks, MLBTR predicted Suárez for a five-year, $115MM deal at the beginning of the offseason, $23MM in terms of average annual value. The top of the free agent starting pitching market has been slow to move this winter. Dylan Cease and the Blue Jays quickly found each other but it’s been a bit tepid otherwise.

Prior to this, no other starter apart from Cease signed a deal longer than than three years or for more than $75MM. Tatsuya Imai settled for three years and $54MM, significantly below the expectations from the outset of the offseason. As Suárez and Framber Valdez lingered unsigned into the new year, it was fair to wonder if they would meet the initial expectations. Suárez has not only met MLBTR’s prediction but surpassed it by a margin of $3MM per season.

Despite some concerns with Suárez, the move gives Boston one of the best rotations in baseball, if not the very best. Crochet is the clear ace. Suárez and Gray will have two spots behind him, followed by Brayan Bello. Oviedo seems to be in a decent position to land the No. 5 spot, but he would also have competition from injury returnees like Patrick Sandoval and Kutter Crawford. It’s possible Tanner Houck jumps into the mix late in the year, as he underwent Tommy John surgery in August.

Prospects Connelly Early and Payton Tolle made big league debuts late in 2025 and could push for jobs as well. Kyle Harrison, David Sandlin, Shane Drohan and Tyler Uberstine are also on the 40-man roster. Those latter six names all have minor league options and either have limited big league experience or none at all, so they could all be sent to the minors as depth. Crawford has a decent amount of big league experience but is still optionable, so it’s possible for him to be squeezed to Worcester as well.

It’s also fair to wonder if this Suárez deal sets the Red Sox up to trade some starting pitching for the infield upgrade they didn’t get when Bregman slipped through their fingers and Bichette signed with the Mets. They have been connected to Donovan many times and have already lined up a few trades with Chaim Bloom, Boston’s former chief baseball officer who is now president of baseball operations with the Cardinals.

Donovan isn’t the only option out there. The Sox were also connected to Marte as strongly as any club in baseball. While the Diamondbacks have reportedly taken him off the market, Breslow could always try to force the issue with an offer headlined by Tolle or Early (in addition to other young pieces). Nico Hoerner’s name has also come up in some trade rumors after the Cubs signing Bregman. Jake Cronenworth of the Padres has been in a few rumors.

All those players would have varying level of trade value due to their different salaries and years of control, but the same is also true of Boston’s pitchers. Early and Tolle are big prospects and would only be given up for a big return. Sandoval has one year left on his contract and has been injured for most of the past two years, so his trade value is marginal, at best. Bello has even been in some rumors and he would be somewhere in between, as he is owed $50.5MM over the next four years and has been more good than great.

Since it feels likely that at least one more significant move is coming, the club’s financial picture is probably still in flux. For now, RosterResource pegs the club’s payroll at $197.5MM with a competitive balance tax calculation just under $266MM.

The Sox avoided the tax in 2023 and 2024. They went narrowly over the line in 2025, paying a tax bill of just $1.5MM. That will make them second-time payors in 2026, giving them a base tax rate of 30% for going over the first threshold of $244MM. The second threshold is $264MM and the Sox would pay a 42% on further spending above that line. If they go beyond $284MM, the tax rate would jump to 75% for spending above that line and their top pick in the 2027 draft would be dropped by ten spots.

Speaking of the draft, the Sox are going to be impacted by this Suárez signing in 2026. Suárez rejected a qualifying offer from the Phillies, meaning the Sox are subject to the associated penalties for signing him. Since the Sox paid the tax last year, they have to forfeit their second- and fifth-highest draft picks this summer, in addition to losing $1MM in international bonus pool space. The Phillies will receive a compensation pick after the fourth round of the upcoming draft.

Prior to this deal with the Red Sox, Suárez was connected to the Orioles, Astros and Mets, though other clubs presumably had interest even if they weren’t connected to him in public reports. For the teams who missed out on Suárez, there are still some options they can turn to, despite the relatively late stage of the offseason.

Valdez and Zac Gallen are the top two free agents, with Chris Bassitt, Justin Verlander, Lucas Giolito and others still unsigned. The trade market still has some potential options, including MacKenzie Gore and Freddy Peralta. Valdez has to be pleased with Suárez getting a deal beyond expectations even at this part of the calendar. They are fairly similar pitchers as groundballers. Valdez is a bit older but throws harder and has the more impressive track record overall.

Jon Heyman of The New York Post first reported that the Sox would be signing Suárez. Bob Nightengale of USA Today first reported the length and guarantee, as well as the lack of deferrals and opt-outs. Chris Cotillo of MassLive first reported the lack of a no-trade clause, the inclusion of a mutual option, and the annual breakdown of the contract. Photos courtesy of Bill Streicher, Brad Penner, Imagn Images

White Sox Trade Luis Robert Jr. To Mets

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The long-awaited Luis Robert Jr. trade has arrived. The Mets announced they’ve acquired the former All-Star center fielder from the White Sox for young infielder/outfielder Luisangel Acuña and minor league right-hander Truman Pauley. There’s no cash involved and no corresponding moves because Robert and Acuña were each on the 40-man roster.

This brings an end to what had been years of Robert trade rumors. The White Sox have held their center fielder through multiple rebuilding seasons. In retrospect, they surely wish they’d moved him over the 2023-24 offseason. Robert was coming off a career year and looked like a budding star entering the prime of his career. The past two seasons have been more challenging, as he has battled injuries and struggled while fielding questions about when he would be traded.

Robert was a high-profile prospect when he signed with the Sox out of Cuba in 2017. He commanded a $26MM bonus, the kind of hefty sum for an international amateur that would subsequently be prohibited in the collective bargaining agreement. Robert’s dominant minor league performance further spurred optimism, and the White Sox signed him to a $50MM extension over the 2019-20 offseason. At the time, it was the largest extension for a player who had to make his MLB debut, and it ensured he’d break camp in 2020 without any kind of service time games.

While that year’s schedule would be shortened by the pandemic, Robert popped 11 homers and won a Gold Glove in center field. He placed second in Rookie of the Year balloting. Robert’s numbers jumped in year two, as he hit .338/.378/.567 across 296 plate appearances. A torn flexor tendon in his right hip cost him three months, however, and the blend of tantalizing talent and frustrating durability would be a recurring theme in his career.

Robert had a trio of injured list stints, albeit all for minor issues, the following season. He stayed healthy for almost all of the ’23 campaign and showed the star-level ceiling he possesses at full strength. Robert drilled 38 homers, 36 doubles and one triple across 595 plate appearances. He hit .264/.315/.542 to win a Silver Slugger Award. FanGraphs and Baseball Reference each valued his season around five wins above replacement after accounting for his excellent center field defense.

The White Sox nevertheless went 61-101 and were outscored by 200 runs. It was clear they were amidst a multi-year teardown, but they elected to hang onto Robert when they had four years of affordable contractual control. They could have netted multiple top prospects if they’d shopped him.

Robert’s production has tanked as the team has slogged through two more terrible seasons. He’s a .223/.288/.372 hitter in 856 plate appearances since the start of 2024. He has struck out at a near-30% rate while continuing to battle injuries. The right hip flared up early in the ’24 season and kept him out for two months. A pair of left hamstring strains were the culprit last summer, with the latter costing him all of September.

The physical tools remain encouraging. Robert is one of the fastest players in the league despite the various lower body injuries. He ranks in the 92nd percentile in bat speed, according to Statcast. He’s an aggressive hitter who is always going to have his share of strikeouts. Teams would happily live with a lower on-base percentage if he’s making the kind of power and defensive impact he did during his best days in Chicago.

It’s largely a change-of-scenery bet from the Mets’ perspective. Robert only turned 28 in August and hasn’t shown signs of physical decline. He has spent the past three seasons on one of the worst teams in MLB, fully aware that he’d be traded at some point. A new environment could help him get back on track, although the durability concerns will persist even if his numbers improve.

Robert will at least upgrade the defense and bring some upside on the bases. He has stolen 20+ bags in three straight seasons and went 33-41 in stolen base attempts last year. He should also bring some juice against left-handed pitching, as he’s a career .293/.367/.505 hitter with the platoon advantage. His production against southpaws tanked in 2024 but rebounded last season.

The biggest risk for the Mets is financial. They’re assuming the entirety of Robert’s $20MM salary and committing to a $2MM buyout on a $20MM club option for the 2027 season. It’s not a small amount to spend on a player who hasn’t produced much over the past two years, and that’s before considering the tax implications.

The Mets pay a 110% tax on spending as a three-time repeat luxury tax payor whose CBT payroll is above $304MM. Robert is guaranteed $22MM for one season — the option buyout is guaranteed money — so they’re tagged with a $24.2MM tax hit. It’s a $46.2MM commitment overall, albeit one that comes with the upside of what could be a bargain option in ’27 if Robert hits his ceiling. RosterResource calculate their CBT number around $357MM, putting them on track to exceed last year’s season-ending $347MM mark — which required a $91.6MM tax payment. There’s a good chance they’ll have a tax bill north of $100MM by the end of the ’26 season.

They’ve taken on $64MM in AAV commitments for the 2026 season between the Robert trade and Bo Bichette signing over the past five days. The Mets haven’t wanted to lock themselves into lengthy deals one offseason after the Juan Soto signing. They’ve compensated with significant short-term investments to chase upside. Robert should be the everyday center fielder as long as he’s healthy. That’d push Tyrone Taylor either into a fourth outfield role or as a stopgap in left field if prospects Carson Benge and Jett Williams open the season in Triple-A. It seems likely to take them out of the running on Cody Bellinger, the top unsigned position player.

Although the White Sox missed their opportunity to trade Robert at the apex of his value, they deserve some credit for exercising this year’s option rather than cutting him loose for nothing in free agency. That at least netted them an intriguing depth piece in Acuña, who felt superfluous on the Mets but is a fine target for a rebuilding team.

The younger brother of Ronald Acuña Jr., Luisangel is a former Rangers signee whom the Mets acquired in the 2023 Max Scherzer deadline deal. His bloodlines and previous inclusion in one marquee trade have made him a more well-known prospect than his production probably warrants, but he’s not yet 24 and provides some multi-positional utility for skipper Will Venable.

Acuña signed as a shortstop and has the arm strength to profile on the left side of the infield. There weren’t many shortstop reps available on a team with Francisco Lindor, leading the Mets to bounce him around in a utility capacity. Acuña has plus-plus speed and could be an option in center field as well. He’s splitting his time between shortstop and center field in the Venezuelan winter league, but the majority of his MLB experience has come as a second baseman.

The White Sox shouldn’t have any issue getting Acuña in the lineup even if he’s not expected to push Colson Montgomery off shortstop. He could step into the everyday center field role vacated by the Robert trade or push for second/third base playing time alongside Chase Meidroth, Miguel Vargas and Lenyn Sosa.

The question is whether Acuña will bring enough to the table offensively to warrant playing time once the Sox are better positioned to contend. He’s a .248/.299/.341 hitter in his first 233 MLB plate appearances. Acuña has had a similarly light bat against Triple-A pitching. The right-handed hitter owns a .265/.307/.360 line in more than 700 trips to the plate at the top minor league level. Acuña has solid contact skills but puts a lot of balls on the ground without big exit velocities. He’s a slash-and-dash type hitter whose best current ability is as a runner, where he went 16-17 in stolen base tries over 95 MLB games last year.

Acuña is out of minor league options, so the White Sox will need to keep him on the MLB roster. They wouldn’t have traded Robert for him if they didn’t intend to do so. The lack of roster flexibility was a much bigger hangup for the Mets, who also cannot option Mark Vientos and are unlikely to send Brett Baty back to Triple-A. They knew they’d lose Acuña on waivers but weren’t positioned to offer him the playing time to take a step forward offensively. Chicago can control him through the 2031 season, as Acuña has yet to reach a year of MLB service.

The White Sox also add a low minors arm in Pauley, a 6’2″ righty whom the Mets took in the 12th round of last year’s draft. The Harvard product received an above-slot $400K signing bonus. Baseball America ranked him the #435 prospect in the draft, writing in June that teams like the riding life on his mid-90s fastball and plus spin rates on his breaking ball. Pauley walked more than 15% of opponents with a 4.61 ERA in his draft year. His command will need to take a significant leap if he’s to get to the majors, even as a reliever, but the Sox’s player development team is clearly intrigued by his raw stuff.

From a payroll standpoint, dealing Robert drops Chicago’s projected spending to $67MM. They opened last season around $81MM, so this could free them up for a late-offseason depth addition or two. The Sox could bring in a veteran middle reliever and/or a fourth outfielder whom they’d try to flip for another lottery ticket prospect in the Pauley mold at the deadline.

Jeff Passan of ESPN was first on the trade terms. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reported that the Mets were assuming the full salary. Respective images courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski, Jay Biggerstaff of Imagn Images.

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