It’s been a big week for baseball in California. After the Padres swept the Giants and the Angels swept the Dodgers, a new leader stood atop the NL West. The Padres had claimed sole possession of first, while the Dodgers slipped into second, one game back of San Diego. The playoff odds will tell you that the Dodgers remain the favorites, but they’re losing momentum. According to FanGraphs, the Dodgers had an 83.8% chance to win their division on Opening Day, while the Padres’ odds were a mere 3.8%. As recently as three weeks ago, L.A.’s odds reached 96.6%, while San Diego’s sat at 1.5%. Yet, the Padres have since won 14 of their last 18 games, while the Dodgers are 8-10 in the same span. Accordingly, FanGraphs now has L.A.’s odds just below two-thirds (63.8%) and San Diego’s just above one-third (36.1%). You can think of it this way: These odds mean the Padres are now about as likely to win the NL West as the White Sox (.364 winning percentage) are to win on any given day. It’s still not likely, but it’s more than possible. The White Sox, as bad as they are, have still won 44 games.
This big week of California baseball will continue into the weekend, as the Dodgers host the Padres for a three-game set at Chavez Ravine. With a series win, the Dodgers would secure the season series tiebreaker, which could prove critical in a close division race. A sweep would give them sole possession of first place once again. Conversely, for the Padres, a series win would keep their chances of winning the tiebreaker alive, while a sweep would give them a four-game cushion over their rivals. With a four-game lead, the Padres would control their own destiny for the 38 games remaining in the regular season; they only have three more against the Dodgers after this weekend.
The Dodgers are lined up to send Clayton Kershaw, Blake Snell, and Tyler Glasnow to the mound. While the team continues to be plagued by injuries – most recently to Tanner Scott, Kirby Yates, Hyeseong Kim, Tommy Edman, and Brock Stewart – the starting rotation is much stronger with Kershaw, Snell, and Glasnow, as well as Emmet Sheehan and Shohei Ohtani, all healthy at the same time, alongside 2025 All-Star Yoshinobu Yamamoto. While the Dodgers have seen their playoff odds plummet over the past three weeks, their starting rotation leads the majors in strikeout rate and SIERA in that time. They also rank second in groundball rate and xERA and third in fWAR. All this to say, the Dodgers’ starters, should they stay healthy, will be a strength for this team down the stretch.
As for the Padres, their pitching plans for the weekend became more complicated when Michael King was scratched with knee inflammation, heading back to the IL after only one start. He had just returned from a thoracic nerve issue that kept him out for more than two months. San Diego’s rotation, now more than ever, has a lot of question marks behind Dylan Cease and Nick Pivetta. Yu Darvish has been inconsistent since he made his season debut in July; the former ace is almost 39, and he’s missed a lot of time with injuries in the past few years. Deadline acquisition Nestor Cortes has only made two starts since returning from a four-month IL stint, and he’s yet to make it out of the fifth inning. It’s hard to know what the Padres can expect from him as well. The recently recalled Randy Vásquez is a great backup plan for King – he’s a much more established sixth starter than most teams can boast – but his 5.98 xERA and 5.85 SIERA are huge red flags underlying his 3.93 ERA in 22 starts this season.
Thankfully for the Padres, they have the best bullpen in the league backing up their starting staff. President of baseball operations A.J. Preller bolstered a group that already included Robert Suarez, Adrian Morejon, Jason Adam, and Jeremiah Estrada with flamethrower Mason Miller in a blockbuster deadline trade. The Padres’ bullpen leads the majors with 37 wins, 40 saves, a 2.97 ERA, and 6.7 fWAR, and keep in mind, Miller has only been a part of it for a couple of weeks. As for the Dodgers, they might have a great bullpen if it weren’t missing Scott, Yates, Stewart, Evan Phillips, Michael Kopech, and Brusdar Graterol. It would be an exaggeration to call their arm barn a weakness, but one has to imagine that Dave Roberts is a lot less confident than Mike Shildt when it comes time to take his starter out of a game.
It should also be said that Miller and Cortes were far from Preller’s only trade deadline pickups. While Andrew Friedman and the Dodgers didn’t add much – Stewart and outfielder Alex Call were their biggest acquisitions – Preller may have won the deadline. At the very least, he won the deadline in the NL West, according to two-thirds of respondents in a recent MLBTR poll. At 5:01 PM CT on July 31, the newest Padres included Miller, Cortes, Ryan O’Hearn, Ramon Laureano, JP Sears, Freddy Fermin, and Will Wagner. The Dodgers were still three games up on the Padres at that point, but the Padres were a whole new team, with a deeper bullpen, a stronger rotation, a better catcher, and a more powerful offense against righties and lefties alike. Equally important was their decision to hold onto all of their key contributors who had come up in pre-deadline trade rumors, including Cease and Suarez.
The Dodgers have the better odds, according to both FanGraphs and PECOTA. They also have the better run differential, the higher FanGraphs WAR, and the reputation as the team to beat. After all, they’re the reigning World Series champions. They’ve won the NL West 11 times in the past 12 seasons. Meanwhile, the Padres haven’t won the West in almost 20 years. They haven’t won a pennant since the ’90s. They’ve never won it all. Yet, they’re playing like the better team right now, and they have the one-game lead to prove it. The question is: Can they hold on?
Will the Padres finally usurp the Dodgers in the NL West? Will the Dodgers’ dynasty live on another year? Or could a dark horse in the division pull off a remarkable comeback? Have your say in the poll below!
