How Will The Padres Round Out Their Rotation?
Barring injury, the Padres will open the season with an established top three in their rotation. Nick Pivetta, Michael King and Joe Musgrove have the upside to be one of the best top halves in the National League.
Musgrove is coming back from Tommy John surgery, while King was limited to 74 1/3 innings last year (playoffs included) by a nerve issue in his shoulder and left knee inflammation. They’re free of any restrictions this spring. Musgrove will make his exhibition debut tomorrow against Great Britain in a World Baseball Classic tune-up. King has already started two games this spring.
The picture is a lot less clear from there. Yu Darvish will miss the entire season. Free agent pickup Griffin Canning has yet to pitch this spring as he works back from last June’s Achilles tear. He’s very likely starting the season on the injured list.
That’s also true of knuckleballer Matt Waldron, though it could be close to a minimal IL stay for the right-hander. Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune wrote yesterday that Waldron plans to throw off a mound this week and is hopeful of getting a start in before the end of Cactus League play. He won’t be built up enough to start the season on the active roster, however. Waldron is out of options, so the Padres will need to carve out an MLB spot for him once he’s ready or risk losing him via trade or waivers.
That all but ensures that Randy Vásquez will get a season-opening rotation spot. Manager Craig Stammen said at the beginning of camp that the righty had a leg up on a job. Vásquez is out options and needed to make the team in some capacity. He outperformed mediocre peripherals for most of last season but improved his strikeout rate to a league average level in September. He finished last season with a 3.86 ERA across 133 2/3 innings.
It probably leaves the Padres will one spot to fill. The front office has taken a volume approach to the back of the roster, adding a handful of veterans on cheap one-year deals or minor league contracts to see who sticks. They added enough options that it’s not out of the question they open with a six-man rotation.
Pitching coach Ruben Niebla left open that possibility over the weekend, although he implied they preferred a five-man group (link via AJ Cassavell of MLB.com). Niebla said the team is preparing the starters on a usual five-day routine. If multiple depth arms pitch their way onto the roster, they could go to a six-man staff, but that requires dropping to a seven-man bullpen.
If there’s only one spot available, Germán Márquez enters camp as the favorite. The former Rockies righty signed a $1.75MM deal in mid-February. His spot on the MLB roster feels secure, which isn’t the case for non-roster invitees Walker Buehler or Marco Gonzales. Márquez could theoretically pitch in long relief if one of Buehler or Gonzales beats him for the fifth starter role. That scenario (or a six-man rotation) probably wouldn’t bode well for out-of-options reliever Ron Marinaccio’s bid to stick on the roster.
Lefty JP Sears is also in the rotation mix, though San Diego’s series of veteran additions means it’s likelier he’s headed back to Triple-A. Sears was hit hard in five MLB starts after being acquired from the A’s in the Mason Miller trade. He still has a minor league option remaining.
Sears also hasn’t an especially encouraging start to camp, giving up five runs on seven hits (including two homers) across 3 2/3 innings. Márquez allowed three runs on four hits over two innings in his exhibition debut over the weekend. Gonzales, who missed all of last season rehabbing flexor surgery, has given up five runs across 4 2/3 frames over two spring starts. Buehler hasn’t pitched in an official Spring Training game but took on the KBO’s NC Dinos in an outing on the back fields over the weekend, giving up two runs over three innings.
Padres’ Blake Hunt Shut Down Due To Oblique Injury
The Padres recently shut down catcher Blake Hunt due to an oblique injury, as reported by Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. Hunt’s exact timeline for return to action isn’t currently known, but he figures to be sidelined for the foreseeable future.
The 27-year-old was a second-round pick by the Padres back in 2017 but was traded to the Rays as part of the Blake Snell deal while he was still in A-ball. In the years since then, Hunt has bounced between the Rays, Orioles, and Mariners organizations. He was called up to the majors for the first time in July of 2024 but has never made an appearance in the big leagues. In 2025, he performed quite well for the Mariners’ Triple-A affiliate in Tacoma, slashing .272/.368/.452 (108 wRC+) with eight homers and 15 doubles in just 68 games. Following the 2025 season, Hunt elected minor league free agency and returned to the organization that drafted him on a minor league pact.
Entering Spring Training, Hunt was a non-roster invitee who appeared likely to serve as Luis Campusano‘s primary competition in camp this year. Hunt has long been on the periphery of the majors at this point and is perhaps overdue for a shot at the highest level, and while the out-of-options Campusano entered Spring Training with the advantage of having a 40-man roster spot already, it would’ve been understandable for him to face some pressure head of Opening Day. The 27-year-old appeared in just ten games at the big league level last year and went hitless in those 27 plate appearances. While he did manage to hit an extremely impressive .336/.451/.595 (149 wRC+) at Triple-A last year, he’s a career 88 wRC+ hitter in the majors with lackluster defensive marks behind the plate and has slashed just .211/.276/.336 (75 wRC+) with -0.8 fWAR and -1.1 bWAR when looking at just the last two years.
That lack of production makes it hard to trust Campusano headed into 2026, and his 2-for-12 showing during camp so far hasn’t exactly set the world on fire. Freddy Fermin figures to serve as San Diego’s primary catcher entering the year, but Hunt’s injury could wind up giving Campusano more of a leash as the team’s primary backup. Ethan Salas doesn’t figure to be ready for the majors anytime soon, and the only other catcher in camp at the moment with experience even at Triple-A is 28-year-old Rodolfo Duran. If Hunt’s injury is severe enough to sideline him long-term, it’s plausible that the Padres could look to add some external catching depth to provide further insurance behind their current tandem. Veterans Tom Murphy and Christian Vazquez are still available in free agency, but it’s also possible that veterans on minor league deals in other camps could opt out as Opening Day approaches or that catching depth on the fringes of another organization’s roster could be made available in a minor trade if the Padres were sufficiently motivated to get a deal done.
Padres Shut Bryan Hoeing Down With Elbow Discomfort
Padres right-hander Bryan Hoeing is likely to miss the start of the season, according to a report from Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. Per Acee, Hoeing is dealing with some discomfort in his throwing elbow and has been shut down by San Diego as a result. Acee added that pitching coach Ruben Niebla expressed some early optimism about the severity of the injury.
“We don’t think it’s as serious (as it could be), but we have to be conscious and take a look at it and be able to make the right assessments,” Niebla told reporters, as relayed by Acee.
More details on Hoeing’s status and timeline for return will surely be available in the coming days, once the team has had the opportunity to get Hoeing’s elbow looked at. In any case, it makes sense for the Padres to be extremely cautious with Hoeing at this point given how damaging a severe elbow injury can be to a player’s career. That’s especially true for the 29-year-old Hoeing, who pitched just eight innings in 2025 due to shoulder issues that left him sidelined for much of the 2025 season.
Despite that injury-plagued campaign last year, Hoeing figures to be firmly in the Padres’ bullpen mix if healthy. He enjoyed a breakout campaign with the Marlins in 2024 that got even better after being traded (alongside Tanner Scott) to San Diego at that year’s trade deadline. The righty sports a 2.34 ERA in 61 2/3 innings of work since the start of the 2024 season, and has posted a sterling 1.99 ERA in 25 appearances as a member of the Padres. While he’s not much of a strikeout pitcher, with a measly 19.5%, a 50.3% ground ball rate more than makes up for the lack of whiffs. That in combination with a manageable walk rate has led even more advanced metrics like SIERA (3.77) to be generally impressed with his work over the past two years in spite of their general favor for pitchers with high strikeout rates.
Of course, in a stacked Padres bullpen that likely left Hoeing in position to receive only middle relief work, as the late innings are set to be handled by a combination of Mason Miller, Adrian Morejon, Jeremiah Estrada, Jason Adam, and David Morgan. Hoeing could theoretically work his way into that mix with another big year like 2024, but for now seems more likely to handle the middle innings alongside Yuki Matsui when the pair are healthy. Matsui has also been sidelined of late due to an adductor strain, but Acee suggests the 30-year-old southpaw is more likely to be ready for the start of the season than Hoeing. Comments from Niebla seem to corroborate that, as the team’s pitching coach actually suggested Matsui could start throwing off the mound later this week.
Padres Sign Alex Verdugo To Minor League Deal
The Padres have signed outfielder Alex Verdugo to a minor league contract, the San Diego Union-Tribune’s Kevin Acee reports. Verdugo has been a free agent since he was released by the Braves last July.
Last offseason, Verdugo didn’t land his Atlanta contract (a one-year, $1.5MM guaranteed deal) until just a week before Opening Day. He’ll get a little more Spring Training prep time this year, and a chance to try and win himself a job on San Diego’s roster as a backup outfielder.
Verdugo must also be viewing this as an opportunity to turn around his career as he enters his age-30 season. Formerly an everyday player with the Red Sox and a key piece of the trade package Boston received from the Dodgers in the Mookie Betts deal, Verdugo posted okay but unspectacular numbers (.281/.338/.424 with 43 home runs in 2071 plate appearances, for a 105 wRC+) over five seasons in a Sox uniform.
Over the last two seasons with the Yankees and Braves, however, Verdugo’s production has sharply dropped. Since Opening Day 2024, Verdugo has a modest 80 wRC+, while hitting .234/.292/.339 with 13 home runs over 834 PA. In each of those seasons, Verdugo got off to a hot start before badly tailing off.
Those struggles in the Bronx led to Verdugo’s extended stay in free agency last winter, and it took some injuries within the Braves’ outfield mix to allow him to land a Major League contract. Jurickson Profar‘s PED suspension came a little over a week after Verdugo’s signing, which suddenly created the possibility of an everyday role as Atlanta’s left fielder. Verdugo voluntarily spent the first few weeks of the regular season at extended Spring Training and in the minors to get himself in proper game condition, but once called up to the Show, he hit .239/.296/.289 over 213 PA.
Once Profar was eligible for reinstatement, the Braves designated Verdugo for assignment and then released him. No other minor league offers emerged over the remainder of the 2025 season, and there hasn’t been any buzz about Verdugo on the offseason rumor mill until today’s signing. However, the Padres have apparently long had Verdugo on their radar — Acee writes that San Diego had some trade talks involving Verdugo in the past, and explored signing him last winter.
Fernando Tatis Jr., Jackson Merrill, and Ramon Laureano are set as the Padres’ starting outfield. Miguel Andujar will also get some time in the corners, and Gavin Sheets and Nick Castellanos are technically also outfield options but the Padres will likely deploy both at first base and at DH. Bryce Johnson is a fourth-outfielder type who hasn’t shown much at the plate over parts of four MLB seasons, and the Padres plan to give Sung Mun Song some time in the outfield as they experiment with turning Song into a super-utility type in the majors.
The left-handed hitting Verdugo could spell Laureano (a righty swinger) against some right-handed pitchers, and he has more of a career track record as a hitter than Johnson, though Verdugo is best suited defensively as a corner outfielder. Since the Padres don’t have a set designated hitter, the team can rotate any number of players through the DH spot in order to give partial rest days to regulars and to help get at-bats for the bench crew.
There’s no risk for the Padres in seeing what Verdugo can do in camp, and the team has been stockpiling a lot of experienced MLB players as they evaluate their bench options. Ty France, Pablo Reyes, Jose Miranda, Nick Solak, and more are in camp on minor league deals battling it out for 26-man roster spots.
NL West Notes: Devers, Bader, Song
The Giants are banged up this spring. The club released a handful of injury updates regarding a few notable names on Saturday. The highest-profile player on the list was Rafael Devers, who is dealing with a left hamstring injury. The slugger will be sidelined for the next two to four days, as relayed by multiple reporters, including Maria Guardado of MLB.com.
Devers has suited up for three Spring Training games so far. He last played on Thursday against the Rockies. Every Devers appearance this spring has been at first base. The position was a point of contention with his former team, but he’ll head into his first full season with San Francisco as the top option at the cold corner.
Harrison Bader will not hit for the next two days as he recovers from a right thumb contusion. The outfielder was pulled from Friday’s game after one at-bat due to the injury. Assuming a return to full health, Bader will lock down center field for the Giants.
Drew Gilbert is working through a left shoulder impingement. The issue will keep him from throwing for the next five to seven days. Gilbert’s absence could impact the race for the fourth outfielder spot. Luis Matos has spent decent stints with the Giants in each of the past three seasons, but he’s being pressed for a bench spot by Gilbert, Will Brennan, and non-roster invitee Jared Oliva, to name a few.
In the bullpen, Erik Miller and Joel Peguero are both progressing well. Miller is dealing with lower back tightness. He’s throwing from flat ground for now, with the expectation he’ll get back on the mound in a few days. Peguero is battling hamstring tightness. He completed a live bullpen and is expected to get back into Spring Training games next week.
Elsewhere around the division, the Padres are looking to expand Sung-Mun Song‘s versatility. The infielder played first base, second base, and third base during his nine-year KBO career. San Diego is expected to begin working him out at shortstop and in left field, per AJ Cassavell of MLB.com. Despite never playing either position as a professional, the Padres are confident Song will pick them up quickly. “We’ve just got to get him on the practice field doing those things,” Stammen said. “And then we can put him in a game.”
San Diego doesn’t have an obvious spot in the lineup for Song, so getting him comfortable at several spots will help him contribute in multiple areas. The 29-year-old is coming off two stellar seasons in KBO, including a 25/25 campaign with a 151 wRC+ this past year.
Photo courtesy of Rick Scuteri, Imagn Images
Seidler Family Weighing Five Offers For Padres
February 27th: Lin provided an update today, clarifying that Kudla and Brees did not submit a formal bid but are considering partnering with one of the other bidding groups.
February 26th: The Seidler family’s efforts to sell the Padres appear to have accelerated in recent weeks. Sheel Seidler, widow of former Padres owner Peter Seidler, dropped or settled most of her litigation against Peter Seidler’s brothers earlier this month. That cleared the way for the family to ramp up a sales process that began in November.
Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports that five prospective buyers have submitted bids. Previous reporting had identified Joe Lacob, José E. Feliciano and Dan Friedkin as suitors.
Lacob, the owner of the NBA’s Golden State Warriors, had previously shown interest in buying the Angels and Athletics. Feliciano is a Santa Monica-based private equity mogul whose firm is a lead owner of the English Premier League team, Chelsea F.C. Friedkin was born in San Diego but is now based out of Texas. He has various business interests and also owns a Premier League club, the Liverpool-based Everton F.C.
Most American sports fans will be more familiar with another potential buyer. Dennis Lin and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported this afternoon that Hall of Fame quarterback Drew Brees has partnered with Vuori CEO Joe Kudla to make a run at buying the franchise. Vuori is a San Diego-based clothing company that specializes in athleisure. Brees played the first five seasons of his career with the Chargers.
Assuming Lacob, Feliciano, Friedkin and the Kudla/Brees groups have made offers, that’d be 80% of what seems to be the remaining field. The identity of the final bidder isn’t known.
Earlier this month, Sportico estimated the franchise value around $2.31 billion. It seems the Seidler family is aiming a fair bit higher. Acee writes that people within the industry anticipate the sale price will land north of $2.5 billion. Rosenthal and Lin report that the Seidlers are seeking a purchase price closer to $3 billion than to the estimation from Sportico.
Anything north of $2.5 billion would be a record for an MLB franchise. Steve Cohen’s 2020 purchase of the Mets from the Wilpon family was for roughly $2.475 billion. That remains the high-water mark. More recent sales of the Orioles and Rays have landed in the $1.7 billion range. Peter Seidler’s group purchased the Padres for $800MM in 2012. The reports from the Union-Tribune and The Athletic — each of which are worth a full read for San Diego fans — suggest an agreement could be reached around Opening Day.
Padres Shut Matt Waldron Down
Padres right-hander Matt Waldron has been shut down for the time being and is considered week to week, manager Craig Stammen told the team’s beat (via Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune). The right-hander recently underwent a procedure for a hemorrhoid.
Waldron, 29, made only one big league appearance last season, pitching 4 2/3 innings and being tagged for four runs. He tallied 26 starts for the Friars the year prior, turning in a 4.91 ERA with a 21.3% strikeout rate against a 6.4% walk rate. He posted a solid 3.79 ERA through his first 23 starts of the season in 2024 before being clobbered for 26 runs in only 18 1/3 frames over his final few appearances, ballooning his ERA by more than a full run in the process.
One of the only active knuckleballers in the majors or minors, Waldron struggled through 21 Triple-A starts last year, serving up a 6.48 earned run average. He maintained respectable strikeout and walk rates, however (20.7% and 7.1%, respectively). A .368 average on balls in play and well below-average 59% strand rate both dogged him.
Waldron is out of minor league options and thus cannot be sent to Triple-A without first clearing waivers. He can, however, open the season on the 15-day injured list and embark on a 30-day minor league rehab assignment once cleared to pitch, if the recovery from his recent procedure necessitates such an absence.
Following a late flurry of low-cost additions, the Padres’ 2026 rotation includes a returning Joe Musgrove (from 2024 Tommy John surgery), the re-signed Michael King, veteran Nick Pivetta, out-of-options righty Randy Vásquez and free agent newcomer Germán Márquez. San Diego also added Griffin Canning on a one-year deal, though he’s still on the mend from last year’s torn Achilles tendon. Lefties JP Sears and Kyle Hart are on the 40-man roster but could be depth options in Triple-A El Paso to begin the year, given Vásquez’s lack of options. Veterans Walker Buehler, Marco Gonzales and Triston McKenzie all inked a minor league deals with invitations to spring and could factor into the mix as well.
Padres Outright Tirso Ornelas
TODAY: Ornelas cleared waivers and was assigned to Triple-A after being outrighted off San Diego’s 40-man roster, according to the Padres’ official transaction page.
FEBRUARY 17: The Padres announced that outfield Tirso Ornelas has been designated for assignment. That’s the corresponding 40-man roster move for right-hander Griffin Canning, whose signing is now official.
Ornelas, 26 next month, has been on San Diego’s roster since July of 2024. He got to make a brief major league debut in 2025, putting up a .071/.188/.071 batting line in 16 plate appearances over seven games.
He has generally been a pretty good hitter in his minor league career. Over the past three years, he has stepped to the plate 1,471 times on the farm, mostly at the Triple-A level. His 11.3% walk rate and 17% strikeout rate in that span are both good numbers, with 48 home runs to boot. However, since that production came in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, his .285/.371/.452 line isn’t as impressive as it initially appears. That translates to a 108 wRC+, indicating he was 8% better than average for that league.
That’s still solid hitting but Ornelas really needs to crush to provide value. He has some center field experience but is mostly a corner guy who isn’t considered a strong defender, nor is he a burner on the basepaths. The Friars have Fernando Tatis Jr. and Ramón Laureano in their outfield corners with Jackson Merrill up the middle. The roster also features other guys who could factor into the outfield mix, such as Gavin Sheets, Nick Castellanos, Miguel Andujar, Sung Mun Song and Bryce Johnson.
The overall picture has pushed Ornelas off the roster and into DFA limbo, which can last as long as a week. The waiver process takes 48 hours, so the Friars could take five days to field trade interest. He still has one minor league option remaining, so he could appeal to a club looking for some extra outfield depth, especially one that needs another lefty bat. Despite his flaws, Baseball America recently ranked him the #28 prospect in the system.
If he were to pass through waivers unclaimed, he would not have the right to elect free agency since he has less than three years of big league service time and does not have a previous career outright.
Photo courtesy of Chadd Cady, Imagn Images
NL West Notes: Adam, Matsui, Hentges, Rushing
Padres reliever Jason Adam underwent surgery to fix a ruptured left quad last September, and as of November, Adam wasn’t sure if he’d be fully recovered in time for Opening Day. However, the early days of Spring Training have been promising for the right-hander. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes that Adam pitched a live batting practice for the first time today, and Adam is making slow but steady progress in fielding drills.
“Pitching-wise, we’re…beyond on pace. It’s just a matter of being cleared” by San Diego’s medical staff, Adam said. In terms of Opening Day readiness, Adam said the team’s trainers “haven’t told me ‘no’ yet.”
One of baseball’s top relievers over the last four seasons, Adam has a 1.66 ERA over 92 innings since the Padres acquired the righty from the Rays at the 2024 trade deadline. While the Padres still have an elite bullpen even without Adam, getting the All-Star back and healthy as early as possible in 2026 will be a huge boost to San Diego’s chances of both returning to the postseason and making a deeper run into October.
More from around the NL West…
- While things are looking positive for Adam, fellow Padres reliever Yuki Matsui is day-to-day with groin tightness after his injury cut short a live BP session on Thursday. Manager Craig Stammen told Acee and other reporters that the groin issue doesn’t appear to be serious enough to impact Matsui’s readiness for Opening Day, but it may well prevent the reliever from playing for Japan in the World Baseball Classic. Since signing a five-year, $28MM deal with the Padres in the 2023-24 offseason, Matsui has a solid but unspectacular 3.86 ERA, 24.6% strikeout rate, and 11.3% walk rate across 126 relief innings.
- Sam Hentges has thrown multiple 40-pitch bullpen sessions in the Giants‘ camp thus far, but he tells MLB.com’s Maria Guardado that he doesn’t have a set throwing progression in place, and it isn’t clear if he’ll be part of San Francisco’s Opening Day roster. The Giants signed the left-hander to a one-year, $1.4MM contract in December, even though Hentges hasn’t pitched in the majors since July 2024 (or in the minors since August 2024). A shoulder surgery was responsible for most of that layoff, but Hentges also underwent arthroscopic surgery on his right knee this past September, which delayed his offseason prep and the final stages of his shoulder rehab. Hentges acknowledged that his long absence played a role in the Giants’ decision to take it slowly with his spring work, though he is hoping to pitch in some games before Spring Training is over.
- Dalton Rushing‘s short-lived turn as an outfielder could be over, as Dodgers manager Dave Roberts told The Athletic’s Katie Woo and other reporters that Rushing will be used this season as a backup catcher and occasional first baseman. Rushing played in 31 minor-league games as an outfielder in 2024, but was on the grass just twice with Triple-A Oklahoma City in 2025, and he didn’t see any outfield work after making his MLB debut with Los Angeles. The former top prospect’s positional future has been a question mark ever since L.A. signed Will Smith to a ten-year extension in March 2024, locking Smith up as the Dodgers’ catcher for the foreseeable future. Between Smith’s extension, Shohei Ohtani set as the DH, and Freddie Freeman at first base, Rushing could be limited to part-time duty perhaps for the next two seasons, until Freeman’s contract is up following the 2027 campaign. While there has been plenty of speculation that the Dodgers could swing a trade, the team seems to still have designs on Rushing (who turns 25 tomorrow) as a key piece of their roster.
Padres, Walker Buehler Agree To Minor League Deal
February 17th: According to Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, Buehler will make $1.5MM if added to the roster and could also access performance bonuses worth $2.5MM on the deal.
February 16th: The Padres are adding Walker Buehler on a minor league contract, reports Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune. The Excel Sports Management client will aim to win a rotation job during Spring Training.
San Diego continues to stockpile potential back-end starters. The Padres agreed to big league deals with Griffin Canning and Germán Márquez over the weekend. Buehler settles for a non-roster invitation, which seemingly puts him behind the other two veteran righties as camp gets underway. Canning is coming back from a June Achilles tear. He might begin the season on the injured list but should be in the rotation once he’s healthy.
The Friars have three locks for the Opening Day rotation: Nick Pivetta, Michael King and Joe Musgrove. First-year skipper Craig Stammen implied last week that righty Randy Vásquez has a leg up on the fourth starter role after a solid finish last year. Márquez, Canning (if healthy) and JP Sears are the top options on the 40-man roster for the fifth starter job. Matt Waldron also remains on the 40-man but is out of options and coming off a rough season in Triple-A. Buehler joins Triston McKenzie and Marco Gonzales among the non-roster invitees.
A two-time All-Star, Buehler was a borderline ace for most of his time with the Dodgers. He hasn’t been the same since undergoing the second Tommy John surgery of his career in 2022. The surgery cost him the entire ’23 season, and he returned with a 5.38 ERA across 16 regular season starts the following year. Buehler pitched well in the postseason and wound up closing out the 2024 World Series. The Red Sox bet that was the beginning of a return to form, but his $21.05MM free agent deal with Boston was a disappointment.
Buehler was rocked for a 5.45 ERA across 23 appearances with the Red Sox. They flirted with a move to the bullpen before pulling the plug altogether, releasing him at the end of August. Buehler latched on with the Phillies and made three appearances to close the regular season. While he tossed 13 2/3 innings of one-run ball in Philadelphia, he only struck out eight of 57 batters faced (14%).
Opponents destroyed his four-seam fastball, hitting .277 with a .553 slugging percentage against the pitch. Buehler’s 94 mph average velocity was down a tick from the previous season and almost three miles per hour below where it had been between 2019-20. The spin rates on his four-seam fastball and knuckle-curve have dropped precipitously since his peak. He has had a much more difficult time missing bats, both within and outside the strike zone. Hitters have done a better job laying off stuff outside the zone, leading to a career-high 10.8% walk rate last season.
Although the trend lines aren’t encouraging, Buehler is only 31 and still has league average velocity. The Padres aren’t committed to a roster spot or a guaranteed salary, so there’s no harm in gauging his form during Spring Training. It should be mostly an open competition for at least one rotation spot.
Buehler might not begin the season in Triple-A if he doesn’t win the job. He was an Article XX(b) free agent — a player with six years of service time who finished last season on an MLB roster. Those players who sign minor league deals at least 10 days before Opening Day have a trio of opt-out dates under the collective bargaining agreement: five days before Opening Day, May 1, and June 1. Buehler can trigger an out clause and explore other opportunities during the final week of Spring Training if the Padres don’t commit to carrying him on the active roster.