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Offseason In Review: San Francisco Giants

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The roster churn continued for the Giants, who made a plethora of lower-tier (and fairly inexpensive) acquisitions that includes a few familiar faces returning to the Bay Area.

Major League Signings

  • Kevin Gausman, SP: One year, $9MM
  • Wilmer Flores, IF: Two years, $6.25MM (includes $250K buyout of 3.5MM club option for 2022)
  • Drew Smyly, SP: One year, $4MM
  • Hunter Pence, OF: One year, $3MM
  • Tony Watson, RP: One year, $3MM (Watson negotiated a new one-year pact, rather than exercise the 2020 player option in his contract)
  • Tyler Anderson, SP: One year, $1.775MM (re-signed after Giants non-tendered him at Dec. 2 deadline)
  • Total spend: $27.025MM

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

It wasn’t nearly as headline-grabbing as the Giants’ attempt to land Bryce Harper in the 2018-19 offseason, but San Francisco similarly looked into making an impact move in this winter’s free agent market.  The club at least explored the possibility of signing Nicholas Castellanos (though there were conflicting reports about the depth of that interest) and Yasiel Puig was also on the radar.  Neither signing materialized.

Instead, president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi continued his more measured overhaul of the roster.  Yes, such staples as Buster Posey, Evan Longoria, Brandon Belt, Jeff Samardzija, Johnny Cueto, and Brandon Crawford are all still in the orange and black.  However, just because the Giants haven’t engaged in a slash-and-burn rebuild doesn’t mean a rebuild isn’t happening.  Just look at the sheer volume of new talent that has been brought into the organization to surround those veteran pillars over Zaidi’s 17 months in charge of the team.

This offseason did see two major names depart the organization, as Will Smith signed with the Braves and postseason hero Mason Sau….er, Madison Bumgarner left for the NL West rival Diamondbacks.  But, the Giants also brought back a pair of names from their early-decade glory days, as Pablo Sandoval re-signed on another minor league contract and Hunter Pence ended up being San Francisco’s biggest outfield acquisition.

Pence’s career seemed to be running on fumes after he left the Giants following the 2018 campaign, yet an overhauled swing led to a surprising .297/.358/.552 slash line over 316 plate appearances with the Rangers last season.  Advanced metrics indicated Pence’s production was no fluke, though there is some uncertainty about whether a repeat performance is possible as Pence approaches his 36th birthday.  He was limited to 83 games due to back and groin injuries in 2019, and the move back to the National League means Pence no longer has the benefit of the DH spot — 202 of his 316 PA last season came as a designated hitter.

That said, a $3MM contract doesn’t represent a major risk on San Francisco’s part, and the team doesn’t expect Pence to play every day.  Pence will serve as the primary right-handed hitting complement to the left-handed hitting corner outfield duo of Mike Yastrzemski and Alex Dickerson, as the Giants are eager to see what the two 29-year-olds can do after their promising 2019 seasons.

Center field is more of a question mark.  Kevin Pillar hit 21 homers in 2019 and was a clubhouse leader, but the Giants opted to non-tender the veteran center fielder rather than pay him a projected $9.7MM in salary arbitration.  Steven Duggar was also optioned to Triple-A prior to the roster freeze, and while Duggar is likely to re-emerge in the big leagues if the season gets underway, minor league signing Billy Hamilton could be the current favorite for the bulk of center field playing time.

Hamilton hasn’t been able to match even Pillar’s traditionally subpar offensive numbers over his career, but he still provides elite defense and will come at a much lower price than $9.7MM if and when the Giants officially select his contract.  The more intriguing option in center field, however, is Mauricio Dubon.  After a respectable rookie year, the Giants plan to deploy Dubon on the outfield grass as well as at second base.  He could also spell Longoria at third base and Crawford at shortstop.

Dubon’s potential as a multi-position threat makes him an even bigger piece of the Giants’ future, particularly if he shows he can passably handle center field duty.  Dubon had been expected to be the regular second baseman in 2020, though since he could be shifting around the diamond, the Giants addressed the keystone with a pair of veteran signings.

Reigning AL Gold Glove winner Yolmer Sanchez inked a minor league deal with the Giants after being non-tendered by the White Sox, while Wilmer Flores scored the only multi-year commitment of San Francisco’s offseason — a two-year deal worth $6.25MM in guaranteed money.  Besides second base, Flores can also serve as a corner infielder and could get some first base time against left-handed pitching (in lieu of the left-handed hitting Belt) while Sanchez plays second base and Dubon lines up in center field.

That is only one potential gameplan for new manager Gabe Kapler, however, as the Giants also have Sandoval, Donovan Solano, and Kean Wong available in the infield picture, plus minor league signings Darin Ruf and Zach Green were tearing up Cactus League pitching before Spring Training was halted.  It’s fair to assume that any or all of these names could have been mixed and matched even if the season had begun under normal circumstances, and in the event of a shortened schedule with as many games as possible crammed into a reduced timeframe, the Giants are even more likely to rely on depth.

The depth behind the plate, however, took a hit when Aramis Garcia underwent labrum surgery in February.  With a projected six-to-eight month recovery period, Garcia could potentially return even on the back end of that timeframe, should the regular season be extended into October (and the postseason into November and beyond).  Until then, San Francisco will go with Rob Brantly or Tyler Heineman as Posey’s backup, as Joey Bart will probably not join the MLB roster until 2021, barring a change in strategy for the organization in light of the altered schedule.

Starting pitching was perhaps the clearest need of the winter, and the Giants addressed the rotation by signing Kevin Gausman and Drew Smyly for two of the open spots behind Cueto and Samardzija.  Both Gausman and Smyly are looking to bounce back after struggling in 2019, with Gausman perhaps having the better chance at a rebound after seemingly getting on track as a reliever with the Reds and suffering some bad BABIP luck (.345) as a starter with the Braves.

It isn’t out of the question that Gausman or Smyly eventually wind up in San Francisco’s bullpen, should any of the Giants’ younger pitchers emerge.  Tyler Beede is gone for the season due to Tommy John surgery, leaving Logan Webb, Trevor Cahill, Dereck Rodriguez, Trevor Oaks, and Andrew Suarez to compete for the fifth starter’s job.  Any of this bunch could step into another rotation spot if Gausman or Smyly don’t pitch well, plus Tyler Anderson will also get a crack at starting once he fully recovers from knee surgery.

There is very little certainty within any of these options, of course, which could be why there was so little trade buzz about Cueto or Samardzija over the winter.  Cueto had less trade value after pitching only 16 innings in 2019 in his return from Tommy John surgery, though Samardzija stands out as a prime trade candidate as he enters the final year of his contract.  If the 2020 season is canceled entirely, however, Samardzija would still be eligible for free agency, and the Giants would potentially miss an opportunity to trade a veteran for some additional prospect help or salary relief (as they did by dealing Drew Pomeranz and Mark Melancon at last year’s trade deadline).

The biggest trade of San Francisco’s offseason saw the club focus on adding minor league talent, as the Giants agreed to what was essentially a “buy a prospect” trade with the Angels.  The target was 21-year-old shortstop Will Wilson, the 15th overall pick of the 2019 draft, whom the Angels surrendered in order to get the remaining $12.167MM of Zack Cozart’s contract off their books.  The Giants absorbed Cozart’s salary and then released him a month later.

Could we see Zaidi and GM Scott Harris use this same tactic again in 2020?  It’s possible, given that there has been some speculation that some teams could be particularly eager to unload salaries due to the reduced schedule, and we already know that Zaidi’s front office is open to any transaction.  Then again, it’s also hard to forecast how even a wealthier franchise like the Giants could adjust to the financial uncertainty facing the league.

2020 Season Outlook

The possibility of a reduced or lost season is a major blow to a Giants club that is still trying to figure out which of its current players will be part of its next contending team.  Top prospects like Bart or Heliot Ramos could lose an entire year’s worth of minor league seasoning, while the jury will still be out on whether younger members of the MLB roster (e.g. Dubon, Webb) are full-fledged big leaguers or if older but still not established players like Dickerson or Yastrzemski can build on their 2019 numbers.

Fangraphs projected the Giants for a 71-91 record over a full season, a dropoff even from their modest 77-win total from 2019.  While the small sample size wildness of a reduced schedule could lead to surprises, the Giants simply don’t match up well on paper with most of the National League, and it seems rather clear that the front office views the 2020 season as a development year.

How would you grade the Giants’ offseason moves?  (Link for app users.)

How Would You Grade The Giants' Offseason?
C 40.60% (1,049 votes)
D 23.96% (619 votes)
B 21.67% (560 votes)
F 8.98% (232 votes)
A 4.80% (124 votes)
Total Votes: 2,584

The Yankees’ (Brief) History Of Contract Extensions

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Twenty-eight different contract extensions were signed between teams and players between February-April 2019, and the Yankees were one of the many clubs that joined in on this rush.  Aaron Hicks was a season away from free agency at the time, though the outfielder chose to forego the open market in favor of a contract that paid him $64MM in new money through the 2025 season.  Right-hander Luis Severino inked a four-year, $40MM deal that covered his four arbitration-eligible years as a Super Two player, and the deal also contains a $15MM club option for the 2023 season, which would have been Severino’s first free agent year.

Another extension came after the season, as the Yankees worked out an agreement with Aroldis Chapman that would see the closer decline his opt-out clause in favor of a three-year, $48MM extension that essentially added an extra year (and another $18MM) onto the final two seasons of Chapman’s previous contract.

Three extensions in less than a year is a pretty notable amount of business for any team on the long-term front.  In the Yankees’ case, however, it counts as an absolute flurry given how rarely the Bronx Bombers have engaged in such internal long-term deals.  New York’s three extensions in 2019 came on the heels of only six extensions in the previous 18 years.

The reason for this lack of extension action is simple — it was against team policy.  “I just don’t believe in contract extensions, and that’s throughout the organization, no matter who it is,” managing partner Hal Steinbrenner told the Associated Press and other reporters in 2010.  “Hopefully nobody takes that personally. It’s just business.”

Between the time Steinbrenner officially became the Yankees’ control person in November 2008 and the start of 2019, his anti-extension stance stayed almost completely intact, with two exceptions that somewhat mirrored the Chapman and Hicks situations.  C.C. Sabathia also had a contractual opt-out decision following the 2011 season, though he and the Yankees worked out a new deal that gave the southpaw five years and a guaranteed $122MM to overwrite the previous four years and $92MM remaining on his previous contract.  Prior to the 2014 season, Brett Gardner (like Hicks) was also just a year away from free agency before New York locked him up for a four-year, $52MM extension.

Beyond the Sabathia and Gardner contracts, however, that was it on the extension front.  As Steinbrenner noted, the “no matter who it is” edict even stretched to the likes of Mariano Rivera or Derek Jeter, who both reached the open market before eventually (and, in Jeter’s case, not without some contentious words) re-signing with New York.  Even general manager Brian Cashman’s last three contracts have only been signed after the GM’s previous deals had expired.

Why would the team take such a hard line?  In short, the Yankees always wanted as much flexibility as possible in deciding their future moves, since they had the financial resources to immediately pivot to a better option in free agency or the trade market if such an upgrade was available.  Whereas other teams pursued extensions as a way of locking up young talent into their free agent years or at least getting some cost certainty through arbitration years, such concerns simply weren’t on the Yankees’ radar given their free-spending ways.

Of course, the franchise has become somewhat more cost-conscious in recent years, which likely explains the Bombers’ openness towards extensions in 2019.  After 15 years of overages, the Yankees finally ducked under the Competitive Balance Tax threshold during the 2018 season, allowing them to reset their penalty clock for 2019 (when they surpassed the threshold again).  Though New York didn’t go to the extremes of other big-market clubs like the Cubs or Red Sox in limiting or eliminating their luxury tax payments, the Yankees saw value in getting under the tax line once, plus they had the additional bonus of being able to cut their tax bill while still remaining competitive since so many of the club’s young stars seemingly broke out at the same time.

With the CBT penalty reset, the Yankees had the freedom to explore a tactic like signing Severino through his arbitration years.  The deal was seen at the time as very canny, given that Severino seemed to be a burgeoning ace, and thus in line for an escalating arb price tag.  In Hicks’ case, he may have had extra motivation to sign an extension given how the restrained 2017-18 and 2018-19 free agent markets left a lot of players settling for below-market deals or having long waits on the open market.  Hicks could have preferred the security of just remaining in New York, and his price was apparently satisfactory enough for the Yankees to make the long-term commitment to a player they obviously wanted to retain.

The early returns on both deals, however, haven’t been good.  Injuries limited Hicks to only 59 games in 2019 and he underwent Tommy John surgery last October, putting him out of action until at least June (though he might not miss any game time at all, given the delayed start to the season).  The news was even worse for Severino, who tossed just 12 innings last season due to injuries and then underwent a Tommy John procedure of his own in late February.  The righty now won’t be back on the mound until early in the 2021 campaign.

It isn’t yet clear if the disastrous starts to both of these extensions may have once again made the team wary of such longer-term deals, or if Steinbrenner and the Yankees front office still consider the process to be sound — after all, there’s still plenty of time for Hicks and Severino to make good on their deals.  Since big-picture concerns likely inspired the club’s decision-making towards those extensions in the first place, it’s safe to assume that inevitable changes to the sport’s financial structure will also impact the Yankees’ future approach more so than a pair of Tommy John surgeries.

Both baseball and the world at large are gripped with the uncertainty of the coronavirus pandemic, plus there’s also the fact that the current Collective Bargaining Agreement between MLB and the players’ union is up in December 2021.  With these factors in mind, it isn’t a stretch to say that the way baseball does business could be vastly different two years from now, which could leave the Yankees and several other teams hesitant about committing any more long-term money until things can be figured out.

Working out an extension for, say, Aaron Judge seems to pale in comparison to such matters.  But, when trying to guess whether or not New York will (once the roster freeze is lifted) seek out multi-year deals for the likes of Judge, Gleyber Torres, Gary Sanchez, DJ LeMahieu, Miguel Andujar, or any number of other players, it’s worth noting that the Yankees generally don’t extend players very often, and it wouldn’t be a shock if they return to their old wait-and-see approach.

10 Players Switch Agencies

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Agent Rafa Nieves’ newly-founded Republik Sports agency will represent several players formerly represented by Nieves at Wasserman.  A video published earlier today on Republik’s official Twitter feed reveals the names of 11 players who will continue to be represented by Nieves at this new firm.

We already heard last night that Nationals outfielder Victor Robles (a Nieves client at Wasserman) was joining Republik, and the other ten names cited in the video include a mix of prominent veteran and up-and-coming stars.  The list consists of Indians infielder Jose Ramirez, Reds right-hander Luis Castillo, Pirates outfielder Gregory Polanco, Athletics right-hander Frankie Montas, Blue Jays outfielder Teoscar Hernandez, Rockies righty Antonio Senzatela, Padres outfielder Franchy Cordero, Marlins catcher Francisco Cervelli, and White Sox relievers Alex Colome and Kelvin Herrera.

As we’ve seen in several past cases of representatives changing agencies or starting new agencies, it’s quite common for players to continue using the same agent even after that rep becomes part of another company.  We saw this in 2017 with Nieves himself, as several of the aforementioned players (namely Ramirez, Robles, Herrera, Colome, Cervelli, Polanco, and Montas) all went with Nieves when the agent moved from the Beverly Hills Sports Council to Wasserman.

The 10 changes have all been updated in our Agency Database.  If you see any notable errors or omissions within the database, please let us know via e-mail: mlbtrdatabase@gmail.com.

MLBTR Originals: 3/23/20 – 3/29/20

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Even with the baseball world shut down, MLB Trade Rumors is still covering any breaking news and also exploring some other topics.  Here’s the roundup of the week’s original content from the MLBTR staff….

  • Jeff Todd profiled different topics every weekday on MLBTR’s YouTube series, with this week’s entries covering the agreement between players and the league about how baseball’s business will be conducted during the 2020 season, looks back at both Joe Mauer’s 2010 extension with the Twins and the 2015 trade that sent Troy Tulowitzki to the Blue Jays, plus career retrospectives on Noah Syndergaard and Yoenis Cespedes.
  • Speaking of looks back, the GM Trade History series allows us to review the trades made by past and current general managers from around the game, detailing years’ worth of major and minor deals…not to mention some seemingly minor trades that suddenly look major in hindsight.  The first five executives featured are Jeff Bridich (Rockies), Billy Eppler (Angels), David Stearns (Brewers), Mike Hazen (Diamondbacks), and former Astros GM Jeff Luhnow.
  • The White Sox and Cubs don’t often link up on trades, but the most recent swap between the Windy City rivals was a doozy.  Anthony Franco breaks down the July 2017 trade that sent Jose Quintana to the Cubs for a four-prospect package headlined by Eloy Jimenez and Dylan Cease, a deal that now looks like one of the cornerstones of the White Sox rebuild.
  • MLBTR’s Offseason In Review series continued with examinations of what the Brewers and Rockies each did over the winter.
  • Since the offseason has now been unexpectedly and indefinitely continued due to the COVID-19 pandemic, MLBTR is looking at how the delayed season will impact individual teams.  This week’s featured clubs: the Phillies and Angels.
  • The delay is also pushing back our first extended look at several rookies who could be impact players for their teams.  Steve Adams, Darragh McDonald, and Jeff Todd fired up the Rookie Radar to seek out some of the top youngsters in the NL East, NL West, AL West, and AL Central.
  • Rangers slugger Willie Calhoun and Reds right-hander Robert Stephenson have already walked the path from star prospect to established big leaguer, though could either player be primed to take a further step if or when the 2020 season gets underway?  Connor Byrne profiles Stephenson, while Anthony Franco examines Calhoun.
  • From breakout candidates to rebound candidates, as Connor Byrne looks at three veterans hoping to bounce back from disappointing 2019 seasons.  Reds star Joey Votto is looking to get on track in his age-36 season, while Justin Smoak is looking for a fresh start after signing with the Brewers, and Alex Wood is likewise hoping to recover his past form on a new (old?) team, the Dodgers.

GM Trade History: Rockies’ Jeff Bridich

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It’s not always fair to judge baseball operations leaders for free agent signings.  In many cases, the biggest contracts are negotiated to varying extents by ownership.  The same can hold true of major extensions.  It’s just tough to know from the outside.

There’s obviously involvement from above in trade scenarios as well.  But, when it comes to exchanging rights to some players for others, it stands to reason the role of the general manager is all the more clear.

In any event, for what it’s worth, it seemed an opportune moment to take a look back at the trade track records of some of the general managers around the game.  After covering the Diamondbacks’ Mike Hazen, former Astros GM Jeff Luhnow, the Brewers’ David Stearns, and the Angels’ Billy Eppler, let’s head to Denver to look at Rockies GM Jeff Bridich.  Since he was promoted to the job in October 2014, here are Bridich’s trades (in chronological order and excluding minor deals; full details at transaction link.)

2014-15 Offseason

2015 Season

2015-16 Offseason

2016-17 Offseason

2017 Season

2018 Season

2018-19 Offseason

2019 Season

2019-20 Offseason

  • None

 

How would you grade Bridich’s history in trades?  (Poll link for app users)

Grade Jeff Bridich's Overall Track Record In Trades
D 40.23% (1,757 votes)
C 34.19% (1,493 votes)
F 18.55% (810 votes)
B 6.00% (262 votes)
A 1.03% (45 votes)
Total Votes: 4,367

Quick Hits: Miller, Wacha, Expansion

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Some items from around the game…

  • Cardinals reliever Andrew Miller spoke to Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch about several topics, including the recent agreement between the league and players’ union about the 2020 season, how Miller is handling the shutdown, and the rather mysterious arm problem that sidelined Miller earlier this month.  “There are some explanations for some of what I’m going through and I have a lot of appreciation for the amount of time [Cardinals head athletic trainer] Adam Olsen and Dr. [Brian] Mahaffey have put in helping me to look for some answers,” Miller said.  Though there still isn’t an actual diagnosis of Miller’s issue, “I think I have answers that make a lot of sense and they’re not the type of thing that brings any sort of concern to my health and my livelihood.”  The southpaw is currently throwing, albeit under “not…ideal” circumstances working out at his home rather than in a normal training environment.
  • Michael Wacha turned to some offseason video analysis with his father to help solve mechanical problems from the 2019 season, which put him in a good place heading into his first Spring Training with the Mets, Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News writes.  By the time Wacha met with pitching coach Jeremy Hefner and assistant pitching coach Jeremy Accardo in camp, “they said my mechanical changes that I made over the offseason were exactly what they were going to be telling me,” Wacha said.  “Exactly the same type of information or helpful tips that they were trying to get me into, I already made them on my own.”  The early returns in Grapefruit League action were somewhat promising, as Wacha posted a 1.17 ERA over 7 2/3 innings, albeit with four walks against only five strikeouts.  However, Wacha also didn’t allow any home runs, which was a positive sign after an ugly 1.8 HR/9 helped push his ERA to 4.76 over 126 2/3 innings with the Cardinals last season.  Wacha signed a one-year, $3MM with the Mets in the offseason and now looks to be a member of their starting five, in the wake of Noah Syndergaard’s season-ending Tommy John surgery.
  • With league revenues bound to take a massive hit due to the shutdown, could expansion be an ideal way to inject some new money into the sport?  Fangraphs’ Craig Edwards explores the question, noting that adding two new teams worth $750MM each (which is perhaps a conservative estimate for the price tag of a new club) in franchise fees would give each current team an extra $50MM in revenue.  Commissioner Rob Manfred has often said that the league would only consider increasing its membership after all of the current 30 teams (namely the A’s and Rays) had some type of plans in place for a new ballpark, and Edwards observes that the league hasn’t had any real financial incentive to expand in recent years.  Of course, the pandemic could now change that stance entirely, though Edwards also points out that the worldwide financial uncertainty caused by the ongoing crisis could lead to fewer potential owners willing meet the price for an expansion team, and cash-strapped cities will now have even less of a reason to spend resources on building a new stadium for a new team.

Diamondbacks, Robbie Ray Hadn’t Been Discussing Extension

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There won’t be any extension negotiations happening anytime soon around the baseball world, though even prior to the league shutdown, the Diamondbacks and left-hander Robbie Ray weren’t engaging in any talks about a new deal, the Athletic’s Zach Buchanan (subscription required) reports.  Ray is scheduled to be a free agent in the 2020-21 offseason, and he is still set to hit the open market even in the event that the 2020 season doesn’t happen, as per the recent agreement between the league and the players’ union.

An extension between Ray and the D’Backs never seemed overly likely, as the southpaw has been a fixture in trade rumors for over a year.  Rather than be one of the prominent Diamondbacks stars to leave town via trade (i.e. Paul Goldschmidt, Zack Greinke) in recent years, Ray now looks to follow Patrick Corbin and A.J. Pollock on the list of D’Backs who left in free agency.  Despite this turnover, however, GM Mike Hazen has remodeled the Snakes into a team that looks like it could compete for a postseason berth if the 2020 season happens, especially after a busy winter that saw Arizona acquire Madison Bumgarner and Starling Marte.

While last summer’s Greinke trade indicates that we can’t be totally sure that the D’Backs wouldn’t try to move Ray even if they remain in contention, Ray doesn’t have nearly the payroll impact that Greinke’s contract carried.  Ray avoided arbitration in his third and final arb-eligible year by agreeing to a $9.43MM for 2020, meaning that he didn’t represent much of a financial burden even before the league shutdown, and Ray will now earn only a prorated amount of that $9.43MM figure based on the number of games actually played in the shortened schedule.

It’s a more than reasonable price to pay for a starter who has been occasionally spectacular but mostly solid over the last five seasons.  Since coming to Arizona as part of the three-team trade with the Tigers and Yankees that sent Didi Gregorius to New York and Shane Greene to Detroit in December 2014, Ray has a 3.96 ERA, 11.3 K/9, and 2.77 K/BB rate over 762 innings.  Ray has battled some control and hard-contact issues, and has consistently had difficultly keeping the ball in the park, though getting out of Chase Field could help address that latter problem.  The 28-year-old southpaw has allowed 58 homers in 349 2/3 innings at Chase Field over his career, and only 52 home runs in 441 innings elsewhere.

Another good season would have put Ray in line for a lucrative multi-year deal in free agency, and MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes had Ray ranked sixth in the first edition of the 2020-21 free agent power rankings (written in February).  Projecting what Ray might earn is now much harder, of course, given the total uncertainty of what next winter’s market could look like in the aftermath of the abbreviated-or-canceled 2020 season.

Details On The MLB/MLBPA 2020 Season Agreement

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Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association reached a deal Thursday addressing many of the outstanding questions facing the game in the wake of the coronavirus shutdown, including how the two sides will address a shortened (or perhaps altogether canceled) 2020 season.  The specifics of this agreement still aren’t fully known, due in part to the ongoing fluidity of how baseball and the players’ union will have to adjust to future events, though we’ve already learned quite a few ways in which the sport’s structure will be altered for this wholly unique season.  Some of the latest details…

  • ESPN’s Jeff Passan and Kiley McDaniel published a highly-recommended breakdown of the agreement, including an explanation of how MLB’s $170MM advance payment will be distributed to players if the season is cancelled entirely.
  • Another key insight from Passan and McDaniel: “The arbitration system will be adjusted to consider lessened counting statistics because of the shorter season, and salaries secured during the 2021 offseason through arbitration won’t be used in the precedent-based system going forward.”  No further detail is provided regarding the adjustment to the arbitration system, which in a sense is already set up to consider lessened counting statistics.  For example, if Kris Bryant hits 20 home runs in the course of an 81-game 2020 season, will that be viewed as the equivalent of a 40 home run campaign?  Passan and McDaniel’s other arbitration-related revelation – that the upcoming batch of arbitration salaries will be excluded as future precedents – implies that players may not have the luxury of getting a 40 home run type raise for a 20 home run half-season.
  • The ESPN duo also notes that 2020 luxury tax payrolls will be assessed “base[d] it on what full-season salaries were supposed to be, not prorated salary payment.”  This is notable in that a team like the Yankees, who are way above the luxury tax threshold, will still be taxed even though they will actually pay out much less than $208MM in salaries.  The actual tax paid will be prorated, according to Passan and McDaniel.  The writers also explain, “And if there is no season, there will be no taxes owed, implying every team would reset to the lowest competitive balance tax threshold.”  Before the coronavirus struck, teams such as the Red Sox and Cubs basically devoted their offseasons to getting under the threshold and resetting their tax rate for the future.
  • Speaking of veteran players on minor league contracts, several of those deals contained player opt-out dates set five days prior to the Opening Day that never occurred.  MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan (Twitter link) has heard speculation that the league could simply push those deadlines to five days prior to the season’s new start.  With no official policy yet in place, we’ve seen different approaches from various teams to this issue, ranging from some clubs agreeing to delay opt-out decision dates independently, to some teams officially selecting a non-roster player’s contract in order to confirm their place on the Major League roster.
  • The MLB/MLBPA agreement also has a provision for players who aren’t on a 40-man roster but are on guaranteed contracts, the Athletic’s Zach Buchanan tweets.  Such players as the Diamondbacks’ Yasmany Tomas “will receive more advance pay than a minor-leaguer,” though it isn’t clear if they would receive the full $5K daily salary through April and May.  Tomas was set to make $17MM in 2020, which was the last season of his six-year, $68.5MM deal signed back in December 2014.  Arizona outrighted Tomas off its 40-man roster in each of the last two seasons, and he has appeared in only four Major League games for the D’Backs in that time.
  • For a high-level explainer of this week’s agreement between MLB and the MLBPA, check out Jeff Todd’s video here.

Victor Robles Joins Newly-Founded Republik Agency

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Word broke earlier this month that agent Rafa Nieves was leaving the Wasserman Agency, and Nieves tweeted yesterday from his personal account that he had finalized his departure.  The next step appears to be his own firm, as Nieves’s Twitter bio identifies himself as the CEO and founder of Republik Sports.

As per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (Twitter link), “many players” currently represented by Nieves are leaving Wasserman for Republik.  A look at Republik’s Instagram page gives hints about some of those names, and the TalkNats blog tweets that Nationals outfielder Victor Robles will indeed be joining Nieves at the new agency.  This change has been reflected in MLBTR’s Agency Database.

It was less than three years ago that Nieves joined Wasserman, bringing several well-known clients (including Robles, Jose Ramirez, Gregory Polanco, Alex Colome, Francisco Cervelli, Frankie Montas, and Kelvin Herrera) along with him to the agency.  Nieves, a 36-year-old Venezuela native, has already become a notable figure in the representation business, as detailed by The Athletic’s Marc Carig in a profile from last August.

The 22-year-old Robles became an everyday player for the first time in 2019, hitting .255/.326/.419 with 17 homers over 617 plate appearances for Washington.  While Robles’ hitting (88 OPS+, 91 wRC+) was nothing to write home about, he was a major plus on the basepaths and especially in the outfield.  Robles immediately established himself as one of the sport’s top defensive center fielders, posting a +6.1 UZR/150, +23 Defensive Runs Saved, and a league-best 23 Outs Above Average.  This performance earned Robles a sixth-place finish in NL Rookie Of The Year voting, and his emergence helped the Nats make up for the departure of Bryce Harper in the outfield as the franchise went on to capture its first World Series title.

Between his age, glovework, and a solid offensive track record in the minors that hints at more progress to come at the plate, Robles looks like a foundational player for Washington.  He is still two years away from arbitration eligibility and is under team control through the 2024 season.  Though teams are unable to discuss contract extensions during the league-wide roster freeze, it stands to reason that the Nats would have interest in locking Robles up in a long-term deal.  It’s worth mentioning that Nieves has a couple of prominent early-career extensions on his record, negotiating Ramirez’s current contract with the Indians and Polanco’s ongoing deal with the Pirates.

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